# ***The Official 2012 Severe Weather Thread***



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 26, 2012)

For this week. The models are currently showing a similar set up to this past weeks, with the exception that the current energy will be from Ark,N.  Ms, Al, Ga and mainly up into Tn and points north of us. However the sfc -500mb shear and lifted index are favorable for some more rough weather here in Ga should this track favor a more southerly direction. The timing is between sometimes early Wednesday morning into Thursday morning at this point.

Further runs will nail it down as we get closer. Looks like another busy STS season.

What am I talking about?? It never ended from last year...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Feb 26, 2012)

Man I did not need to hear this even though I will have to deal with whatever comes my way, Still cleaning up from Friday's storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 26, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Man I did not need to hear this even though I will have to deal with whatever comes my way, Still cleaning up from Friday's storm.



I would hope that this spring would mellow out some as it approaches, but that is totally illogical wishful thinking..


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Feb 26, 2012)

Man you are not kidding I either got to start reinforcing things around here with concrete or lower my home owners deductible.....  Well you and I both know to lower the home owners is the cheaper solution.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Feb 26, 2012)

I finally got those pics posted I put them in the thread you left me the link too


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 26, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> I finally got those pics posted I put them in the thread you left me the link too



I saw that. Thank you very much.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 27, 2012)

Hows things looking for Wed now MC?
Also, just looked at the radar for Daytona and its gonna take a miracle to get that race in today too I believe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> Hows things looking for Wed now MC?
> Also, just looked at the radar for Daytona and its gonna take a miracle to get that race in today too I believe.



Still showing west and northwest of us for the worst weather potential for late wed into thur morning. Here's what I'm looking at right now: (this may take a couple of posts)

Basically the CIN, LI, Temps, Vort, and Precip show much more instability in the areas nw of us on the map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2012)

All of that being said, we are still in a slight risk area according to the 3 day outlook, and as we learned last week, timing is everything. Once the sun comes up Thursday morning it could be  a repeat for those of us down into Georgia. We'll just have to wait and see how the timing plays out. The temperatures will be plenty warm enough Wednesday overnight to provide plenty of lift.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2012)

Had a question in a PM that I thought was deserving of letting the rest of y'all in on certain meteorology acronyms.

CAPE values: in a nutshell are the atmosphere's likely hood of conditions being suitable for good vertical lift and thunderstorm development.

CIN values: in a nutshell are the opposite of CAPE values, they are the inhibiting conditions within the atmosphere to allow the development of thunderstorms through positive vertical lift.

On the latest model run you will notice that the CIN values for the N. Ga. region are low and the CAPE values only slightly elevated. This leaves the potential of development of STS's up to convection created by unexpected daytime heating, and thus far the temps will be marginal to good for that possibility.


----------



## grunt0331 (Feb 27, 2012)

I gotta question while we're at it:

How come Troup County, Carroll County, Coweta, and Floyd seem to get a lot of bad storms?  Seems like these areas are constantly getting hammered and then on the east side of ATL, they calm down.  Not complaining that we don't get a lot of 'em, but wondering if this is just my perception or if there is a scientific reason for it???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2012)

grunt0331 said:


> I gotta question while we're at it:
> 
> How come Troup County, Carroll County, Coweta, and Floyd seem to get a lot of bad storms?  Seems like these areas are constantly getting hammered and then on the east side of ATL, they calm down.  Not complaining that we don't get a lot of 'em, but wondering if this is just my perception or if there is a scientific reason for it???



I had this discussion with Barry Gooden of the NWS out of PTC after my spotter training. We discussed topograhpy and it's effect on volatile weather. More specifically we discussed the Black Warrior River valley over in Alabama, but the same terrain specifics apply to this region of Georgia. We were on the same train of thought that certain terrain features are conducive to increasing CAPE values in micro geographic areas of states where repeated incidents of violent weather occur.

In Alabama, in the BWR valley it is the cells moving out of a flat plain environment and suddenly being funneled into the valley and hitting the tail of the Appalachian foothills. In these areas you mentioned it is much the same feature. The cells have already traveled across that ridge feature in Al. and are regenerating and then suddenly hit the Cumberland foothill ridges and irregularities in that region, creating more and sudden lift, thus enhancing the volatility of the cell. 

During the systems where they lose energy during their easterly progression across the northern part of the state there is usually a cold air wedge in place coming in from the NE and it drains all of the potential out of the cell, but you will notice when it is a broad enough front, the central part of Ga. which isn't effected by the wedge usually has a rough ride as well.

When no wedge is in place then it's just a bad ride for all of us.


----------



## DDD (Feb 28, 2012)

Fwiw...


----------



## DDD (Feb 28, 2012)

This would be for tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2012)

Hey waddler!!! I need you to keep your eyes and ears peeled this evening. It's gonna get kind of hinky when that trough moves up into your area. I'll be monitoring it as long as my lids will stay peeled, but staying up so late watching that Daytona race last night is gonna put a hurt on me eventually.

Here's what you can expect:


----------



## DDD (Feb 28, 2012)

NWS disco from this morning:

WILL FINALLY SEE FRONT SAG INTO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED
NIGHT AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER. WILL AGAIN BE LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR BUT CAPE IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME AROUND THE 500 J/KG RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINE THIS WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING THE LOW
LEVELS AND WE COULD SEE SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN LINE OF
CONVECTION. SIG TOR PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF ARE GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT FOR 1 OR LESS AND 10 PERCENT FOR 1 TO 3. THESE VALUES TAIL
OFF VERY QUICKLY AS THE LINE SAGS SOUTH INTO ATL METRO BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


----------



## DDD (Feb 28, 2012)

Latest disco out of PTC NWS office:

As low pressure system propagates over the great lakes region
through late wednesday...an associated cold front approaches north
georgia. Instabilities and shear are much more impressive with this
front as it sags into the state...with the best colocated cape and
0-3km shear near 500 j/kg and 65-70kts...respectively. Have
continued to mention thunder wednesday...and this environment will
support rotating updrafts...and a tornado or two could not be ruled
out. The threat diminishes into early thursday as the front
continues to push through the area. Spc has a slight risk of severe
for the northern half of the cwa. Pops and thunder chances diminish
through the day thursday before the next system.


----------



## crackerdave (Feb 28, 2012)

Dang! I've got a burn to do in Bleckley county - if it ever dries out.Guess I'll have a beer and some popcorn while I wait.

Any idea when there'll be a low humidity,northwest wind day down there?


----------



## Da Possum (Feb 28, 2012)

I thought it was supposed to snow today????


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2012)

crackerdave said:


> Dang! I've got a burn to do in Bleckley county - if it ever dries out.Guess I'll have a beer and some popcorn while I wait.
> 
> Any idea when there'll be a low humidity,northwest wind day down there?



I can give you the recipe for homemade napalm if you'd like. Won't matter how wet things are..



hdm03 said:


> I thought it was supposed to snow today????



Says who?


----------



## DDD (Feb 29, 2012)

I'm not to crazy about today.  My son and MIL are driving to London, Kentucky as we speak.  Tornados are already on the ground in Western Kentucky.

Me not happy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

This is a frustrating system to nail down for timing in our area. DDD is right, folks well north of us are gonna get it much worse as the LPS is tracking off to the NE. I'm not as convinced as to our potential for STS activity, unless it's between around 3 am to 9 am on Thurs.

What is interesting me more is we get to do this all over again on Friday into Saturday..


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 29, 2012)

Don't see this very often over my neck of the woods. I do not like this, Sam I Am.  And of course, it's looking like the worst will hit at night.


----------



## DDD (Feb 29, 2012)

NOAA just updated their risk map for today.  Geeze.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> NOAA just updated their risk map for today.  Geeze.



I'm back on now, monitory the KMRX site out of Knoxville so I can watch the 75/181 corridor. Thus far the cells moving into the picture are very short lived and well to the wnw of that area.


----------



## DDD (Feb 29, 2012)

lawdy


----------



## DDD (Feb 29, 2012)

From the FFC:

There is a moderate risk of severe weather north of a line from summerville to ellaville to hiawassee this evening and tonight. There is also a slight risk of severe weather north of a line from lagrange to eatonton. A large frontal system moving across the mississippi river valley will push into north georgia later this afternoon. It will continue moving southeast across the state through thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely from this cold front. The primary hazard will be damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes especially within the moderate risk area. There is a possibility of a strong tornado in the moderate risk area as well. Some storms may contain hail as well. 

A strong cold front over the mississippi river will push through the peach state today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this front. With strong 0 to 1 km wind shear values of 35 to 40 knots...especially across north georgia...there is an increased chance of tornadoes. With values this large it is possible we may have a strong tornado or two...especially if the instability is sufficient. 

The best chance of tornadoes appears to be from 5pm to midnight tonight. As the cold front pushes south into the state...the thunderstorms should evolve into more of a line. When this occurs strong winds will be the greatest threat.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Feb 29, 2012)

Dang, why does it alway happen in the middle of the night.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 29, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Dang, why does it alway happen in the middle of the night.



X2........I dont care for STS, I hate night time STS. i dont have a basement and i do have tons of Red oaks and Pines all around my house........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> lawdy





DDD said:


> From the FFC:
> 
> There is a moderate risk of severe weather north of a line from summerville to ellaville to hiawassee this evening and tonight. There is also a slight risk of severe weather north of a line from lagrange to eatonton. A large frontal system moving across the mississippi river valley will push into north georgia later this afternoon. It will continue moving southeast across the state through thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely from this cold front. The primary hazard will be damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes especially within the moderate risk area. There is a possibility of a strong tornado in the moderate risk area as well. Some storms may contain hail as well.
> 
> ...



Yeah, that's what the locals are screaming, but I'm not buying it. Not yet at least.


----------



## bigox911 (Feb 29, 2012)

Prayers go out to folks up north of us that are really getting it bad today.  Several dead.  Looks like the worst of it, in terms of tornadoes, should stay north of GA for the most part, but would be good to have a way of getting weather warnings tonight just in case.


----------



## Keebs (Feb 29, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Prayers go out to folks up north of us that are really getting it bad today.  Several dead.  Looks like the worst of it, in terms of tornadoes, should stay north of GA for the most part, but would be good to have a way of getting weather warnings tonight just in case.


I have a cousin that lives in Knoxville, TN, she said they're hunkered down & waiting...........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Prayers go out to folks up north of us that are really getting it bad today.  Several dead.  Looks like the worst of it, in terms of tornadoes, should stay north of GA for the most part, but would be good to have a way of getting weather warnings tonight just in case.



Looks like western Ky got it the worst. Temps are on the rise here and they are building up to our west pretty good. Might get rocky up in NW Ga in a few hours.

I might have to turn that "iweatherradio app" on tonight.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

Won't be long now. Lookin a little noisy over in Bama, but only a couple of good cells embedded in all of that. We'll see how it looks when it crosses the Ga border soon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

Tornado Watch just issued for N. Ga.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   635 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

          NORTH GEORGIA
          WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
          UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
          EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROME
   GEORGIA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 29, 2012)

Holy Cow you guys in NW Ga are gettin hammered. I live in N. Central Walton County and the most recent lightning strike was in Bartow County and it sounded like it was just right over the hill. It must be rockin and rollin up that way.


----------



## ryano (Feb 29, 2012)

Im in Pickens........it apparently lost its steam before it got here.   A little thunder and some steady rain.  Bout all over with now


----------



## Fro1911nut (Feb 29, 2012)

Starting to light up and rumble here in Acworth


----------



## ditchdoc24 (Mar 1, 2012)

Pouring rain here in north Jasper County and a bunch of lightning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

You kiddies need to learn how to use the Spotter thread to put this kind of info in...


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

Been a while since I have seen almost 50% probabilities out of the NWS at 24 hours out... Anyone remember Alabama last year?  

Yesterday was nothing compared to the potential for tomorrow and wide spread is an understatement.


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

Looking at the GFS this morning this maybe more of a Saturday morning event than that of a Friday night event.  

I am still looking at maps and opinions all over the SE and up to Ohio... but the more I look at it, the more I think we could wake up Saturday morning to the sound of trains.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Mar 1, 2012)

So much for work week at deer camp!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

While tomorrow's set up is a concern to me, it is more of concern in terms of what is to come later in March and April, just because we have spring fronts/trends setting up so early in the year. March, April and May could be (could) really hairy weather wise.

What we don't have tomorrow moving into Saturday morning is significant pressure gradient differentials, temperatures above 850 mb to provide extreme lift thus enhancing the meso cells that do develop and strong enough vorticity  / cape and lifted index to warrant a wide spread tornado outbreak like we saw last April.

Does this mean that there won't be isolated short lived cells that do some damage via a TVS or Meso cell? Absolutely not. Does it mean we will have Meso cells or TVS that stays on the ground through multiple states? Absolutely not. The conditions just aren't favorable, YET. (give us about 3 weeks)

What we can expect from tomorrows weather system. I wouldn't expect to see any weather to worry about moving into parts of Georgia until around midnight and continuing on to 6 or 7 am Saturday. Alabama will be getting in the game earlier in the evening on Friday, with a more volatile setup, as the snap point on the fronts will be at a much lower latitude on the map relative to enhancing their severe chances over ours. We should still see some good storms when the front reaches our state, but they should have lost a little steam as the fronts / snap point moves off to the NE US. Folks in the NW Quadrant of Ga. should expect a lot of rain, upwards of 1.5 inches and it could be more. Impressive lightning and straightline winds which could be damaging, as well as the potential for a short lived tornado. 

Folks in South Ga. could see upwards of 2 inches of rain, with diminished potential for severe weather. They could still see some good thunderstorms producing small hail, and strong winds associated with them, but nothing on the scale of what NW Ga could see, and definitely not what Alabama could see.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

Here's more justification for my feelings on tomorrow's weather, and it's comparisons to what last years massive outbreak was.

Here is the CAPE map showing the highest potential for tornadic weather (most potential for convective lift which I outlined in red)



Here's the CIN map showing suppression of convective lift and leaving the same area open where CAPE is highest, thus confirming where the worst weather should be. (which I outlined in yellow)



Here's the Lifted Index map. Showing good lift in those same areas thus verifying what I am seeing. Plus I have drawn (red lines) where the actual low is and what I call the snap point. This is where the differential air masses come together to create the most volatility. In this system it is well to our north. Also in last years massive outbreak the Cape and Cin were in concert yielding widespread areas of convective lift, with high temps well into the upper levels to promote large scale meso development. I drew lines (blue lines, kind of faint, but over Tn) where it would need to be to give us real problems as was the set up last April when the massive tornado outbreak occurred.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

Here is a description of the TORCON values and a list of Friday's Values:
(note, during last years outbreak we were firmly entrenched in a TC 8 value) Also notice the areas valued at a 7, that is the areas I outlined on previous maps this morning.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions 

8:High probability of a tornado
6:Moderate possibility of a tornado
4:Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
2:Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
0:Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm 


Friday March 2 

AL north - 6 
AR east, south - 3 
GA extreme northwest - 3 
IL south morning - 3 
IN northeast - 3 to 4 
IN south - 6 
KY north-central - 6 
KY south-central - 7 
LA north - 4 
MI southeast - 3 to 4 
MS north half - 6 
OH north - 4 
OH south - 6 
TN central - 7 
TN east - 5 
TN west - 4 
TX east - 2 to 3 
WV west - 3 to 4 
other areas - less than 2


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

Incidentally, if you have family or friends in Central Tennessee or South Central Kentucky, contact them and make sure they are paying attention tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is a very dangerous set up for those areas.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 1, 2012)

Interesting stuff here...Here are a list of the analogs the SPC is using to see what tomorrow may hold.  Here is a chart listing the dates used in the analog comparison



DATE	300HGHT	500HGHT	850HGHT	850ISOT	PMSL	8501000THK	850TMPC	2mTMPC	PWTR	925MIXR	2mDWPC	F036	F048	F060	FINAL
19840305/1200  	0.968	0.963	0.919	0.693	0.853	0.896	0.828	0.855	0.740	0.734	0.800	13.364	15.031	13.927	14.107
19940327/1200  	0.969	0.981	0.888	0.422	0.814	0.917	0.893	0.878	0.651	0.768	0.853	13.546	14.549	12.403	13.499
20020330/0000  	0.957	0.949	0.954	0.513	0.819	0.871	0.833	0.905	0.580	0.716	0.890	11.869	14.559	13.892	13.440
19920215/1800  	0.925	0.910	0.924	0.418	0.868	0.944	0.907	0.929	0.839	0.806	0.891	13.636	15.209	11.374	13.406
20010313/0000  	0.950	0.954	0.904	0.665	0.804	0.929	0.906	0.914	0.775	0.683	0.866	12.841	15.324	11.946	13.370
20070302/0000  	0.920	0.914	0.847	0.687	0.666	0.933	0.908	0.922	0.728	0.787	0.895	13.147	15.055	11.717	13.306
19970314/1200  	0.936	0.952	0.931	0.545	0.746	0.892	0.885	0.901	0.704	0.720	0.851	11.417	14.846	13.403	13.222
19970301/1200  	0.927	0.935	0.915	0.548	0.813	0.970	0.950	0.908	0.703	0.835	0.855	13.233	15.248	11.029	13.170
19970205/0000  	0.941	0.936	0.904	0.385	0.814	0.910	0.863	0.902	0.847	0.760	0.851	11.474	14.780	13.161	13.138
20061028/0000  	0.967	0.952	0.757	0.477	0.716	0.884	0.850	0.830	0.771	0.810	0.855	12.696	14.164	12.274	13.045
19950215/1800  	0.934	0.923	0.915	0.241	0.742	0.884	0.851	0.808	0.798	0.680	0.753	12.817	13.909	12.363	13.030
20040314/1800  	0.969	0.964	0.912	0.443	0.650	0.898	0.869	0.893	0.603	0.532	0.778	12.189	14.007	12.548	12.915
20030204/0600  	0.983	0.985	0.960	0.731	0.845	0.915	0.920	0.901	0.355	0.543	0.840	11.592	14.724	12.308	12.875
20021026/0000  	0.956	0.944	0.867	0.650	0.562	0.928	0.946	0.836	0.732	0.807	0.851	12.038	14.924	11.633	12.865
20040221/0000  	0.966	0.971	0.947	0.686	0.840	0.933	0.894	0.914	0.079	0.570	0.872	12.572	14.033	11.972	12.859

And here is the map of storm reports generated using those analog dates.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 1, 2012)

Also, it's going to be interesting to watch whether a secondary low forms along the front tomorrow.  If one does form, it looks like the bad weather could be further south...if not, the greater threat could be north of most parts of Georgia.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 1, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Incidentally, if you have family or friends in Central Tennessee or South Central Kentucky, contact them and make sure they are paying attention tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is a very dangerous set up for those areas.


 Done, thanks MC!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Also, it's going to be interesting to watch whether a secondary low forms along the front tomorrow.  If one does form, it looks like the bad weather could be further south...if not, the greater threat could be north of most parts of Georgia.



Lower lever shear is conducive for a new low but the upper level 500mb shear is brutal and doesn't lend much to that development at this time. 

It'll be interesting to see what the next two runs show.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 1, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lower lever shear is conducive for a new low but the upper level 500mb shear is brutal and doesn't lend much to that development at this time.
> 
> It'll be interesting to see what the next two runs show.



lets go chase one...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> lets go chase one...



At midnight? Are you crazy!!!???


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 1, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> At midnight? Are you crazy!!!???



ahhh come on!! we will use the lighning to tell us when the vortex is close...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> ahhh come on!! we will use the lighning to tell us when the vortex is close...


Sorry, I don't go hunting for low flying cows in the dark...


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Also, it's going to be interesting to watch whether a secondary low forms along the front tomorrow.  If one does form, it looks like the bad weather could be further south...if not, the greater threat could be north of most parts of Georgia.



Where Hugh drew those red lines, you could just copy and paste back into the Mississippi valley and you would have the same effect.  

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.  My son and my MIL along with my MIL's parents are in and will stay in Somerset, KY.  I am non to happy about it because they are going to be right in the middle of the mess, if this plays out like it seems it will.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 1, 2012)

DDD said:


> Where Hugh drew those red lines, you could just copy and paste back into the Mississippi valley and you would have the same effect.
> 
> Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.  My son and my MIL along with my MIL's parents are in and will stay in Somerset, KY.  I am non to happy about it because they are going to be right in the middle of the mess, if this plays out like it seems it will.



At least they got you looking out for them.  I have family in Nashville.  Sis in law is in Vanderbilt hospital with one of her twin daughters until at least tomorrow probably.  Will need to keep an eye out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

The higher risk area (torcon 7) has shifted a bit from the last model runs. The torcon warning list hasn't been updated to catch up with this shift as of yet.

Here's the areas I am seeing as the most dangerous for tomorrow night. (greatest chance of tornado's)

On the last frame, the lifted index, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Torcon values elevated to an 8 tomorrow. (red a v=7 and purple a v=8)This will put the extreme NW corner of Ga in the v=7 range, if the eastward trend continues with the model progression


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 1, 2012)

Hope all that stuff is gone from there by 
Sunday afternoon!!..........I'm driving to Knoxville Sunday afternoon.


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Hope all that stuff is gone from there by
> Sunday afternoon!!..........I'm driving to Knoxville Sunday afternoon.



It will be gone and in fact the mountains could see snow flurries by Sunday night.


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

yikes



> .DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN
> FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
> HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR
> SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE
> ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

To add to DDD's SPC paste I thought I'd check out the NAM values, just for giggles. It is fairly congruent on the CAPE but the CIN and LI opens up a vastly larger area of concern.

See my crayon markings on these maps:


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

Excellent advise from James Spann:

YOUR PLAN: In a site built home, if you are in a tornado warning polygon, go to a small room (hall, closet, bathroom) on the lowest floor and near the center of the house, away from windows. Put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible.

If you live in a mobile home, you must get out and go to a more substantial structure.

If you are on the second floor (or higher) of an apartment building, you must go to the lowest floor.

Put a helmet on your kids, and wear one yourself if you can.

HAVE A READINESS KIT: Possible items to store in your safe place include:

-Flashlights (enough light to see how to crawl from the rubble)
-First-Aid Kits
-Extra cell phone batteries or chargers
-Shoes (with hard soles if possible)
-Emergency Contact List
-Document wallet for copies of insurance cards, driver’s license, etc.
-Whistle (to alert emergency workers if you were trapped)
-Personal hygiene kit (toothbrush, soap, comb, etc.)
-Rain Ponchos
-Small tarps
-Packs of batteries
-Small radio
-Medicine case


----------



## pbradley (Mar 1, 2012)

HAVE A READINESS KIT: Possible items to store in your safe place include:

-Flashlights (enough light to see how to crawl from the rubble)
-First-Aid Kits
-Extra cell phone batteries or chargers
-Shoes (with hard soles if possible)
-Emergency Contact List
-Document wallet for copies of insurance cards, driver’s license, etc.
-Whistle (to alert emergency workers if you were trapped)
-Personal hygiene kit (toothbrush, soap, comb, etc.)
-Rain Ponchos
-Small tarps
-Packs of batteries
-Small radio
-Medicine case
*-S&W .357 magnum and spare ammo*


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

Hugh, I think it is safe to say that what is showing on these maps is only going to slide SE.  Reading all the NWS discos tonight it sounds like the area of concern grows every 6 hours.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2012)

DDD said:


> Hugh, I think it is safe to say that what is showing on these maps is only going to slide SE.  Reading all the NWS discos tonight it sounds like the area of concern grows every 6 hours.



That is what is starting to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up on this one. I've even sent all of my certs. to the local EMA availing myself to them if needed.

Here is the maps Brad Panovich just posted on Twitter, which echos my concern previously on the NAM / GFS maps comparison. 

He stated, regardless of which map you choose, it is going to be very ugly.


----------



## DDD (Mar 1, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That is what is starting to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up on this one. I've even sent all of my certs. to the local EMA availing myself to them if needed.
> 
> Here is the maps Brad Panovich just posted on Twitter, which echos my concern previously on the NAM / GFS maps comparison.
> 
> ...



I don't like either one.

I have my eyes on Somerset, KY... super concerned there.

Here is looking sketchy as well tomorrow night.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Waited for the 00Z run last night to go to bed, it was stupid crazy out of alignment with the previous runs, as is the 06z run, which is very typical of these two runs, and I refuse to reformulate an opinion based on that data. I'll wait for the 12z run before interjecting more info on this system into the mix.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Good disco out of B'ham this morning.



> ATTENTION TURNING TO THE WEST...AS SURFACE LOW OVER SW MO WILL
> START EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN
> UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST REASONING
> AS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT TS ARE
> ...


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Rare to see the NWS go HIGH risk.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Tornado risk is up too...


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

And yeah, wouldn't you know it, my MIL and son are in the High Risk Area today.  I am praying that it does not get bad where they are.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Good disco out of B'ham this morning.



I wish our PTC NWS was as prescribed to the FEMA plain speak model as the other NWS offices were. I guess the Bama NWS has just had more practice getting their info out to the public.

I agree with about everything their office has issued in this discussion. Also looking at the last two models (which I don't trust) I tend to agree with the late evening diminishing CAPE and strengthening CIN due to loss of convection from daytime heating. That being said, once these supercells get started they tend to be their own energy engines until extreme influences cause them to collapse.

I am still going to hold out for the 12z run to discuss my feelings on the most likely scenario for this evening.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Good advice from Brad Panovich. He is posting this on every social media outlet he is on. Please note the area it covers, from Tuscaloosa, to Montgomery up through LaGrange, Atlanta, Dahlonega and points northward.

Do me a favor if you have friends or family in the areas of 10% or higher on this map. Call them, text them, Facebook, Tweet or e-mail them and tell them to be ready for severe weather. Especially tornadoes today and tonight. Tell them to do the same to their friends & families. Lets use Social Media to inform and protect people from severe weather. This personal connection can & will save lives.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Mar 2, 2012)

I'd be happy with some decent rain! The last 2 storms only squeezed out .18 of an in.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Here's another way to look at the magnanimous threat imposed upon us with this impending weather system. (thank goodness the RUC model runs on incremental times different from the others.)

Helicity:

 In fluid mechanics, helicity is the extent to which helix-like motion occurs. If a parcel of fluid is moving, undergoing solid body motion rotating about an axis parallel to the direction of motion, it will have helicity. If the rotation is clockwise when viewed from ahead of the body, the helicity will be positive, if counterclockwise, it will be negative.

If this doesn't rattle your cage then you are either brain dead or just in flat out denial.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

To reinforce the Helicity maps, here is the RUC 12 hr Storm motion map (driving shear) vs. The 10m inflow map (attaining energy) Notice that they are diametrically opposed, and strong,  bad bad bad bad bad.


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm guessing that it's a good thing if your area is in white, unless that white is surrounded by purple.

Hopefully it stays calm, but when would you expect the intensity to pick up? It looks like very few warnings are in place at the moment.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Did you see the shear maps and the CAPE?  My gosh 100+ knts.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

snookdoctor said:


> I'm guessing that it's a good thing if your area is in white, unless that white is surrounded by purple.
> 
> Hopefully it stays calm, but when would you expect the intensity to pick up? It looks like very few warnings are in place at the moment.



I expect Ga to get in the game later this evening, around 9 or 10 pm up in NW quadrant, and progressing SE'ward as the evening progresses.

Have I mentioned I hate night time severe weather yet?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Did you see the shear maps and the CAPE?  My gosh 100+ knts.



The shear map combined with the inflow map is ugly.


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 2, 2012)

Thanks again, both of you, for keeping us informed .


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 2, 2012)

Will Kentucky still be here tomorrow?


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The shear map combined with the inflow map is ugly.



are you ready... i got the dodge ready to go...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Jeff Raines said:


> Will Kentucky still be here tomorrow?



I certainly hope so, for DDD's sake if nothing else.



blood on the ground said:


> are you ready... i got the dodge ready to go...



You are out of your ever loving mind. I'm calling the Ag commissioner, you've obviously been exposed to too many chemicals...


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

I do not like sunny in this situation!!!  


Asus44 kmeg 021500
rwrmeg
memphis cwa hourly weather roundup
national weather service memphis tn
900 am cst fri mar 02 2012

...west tennessee...

City           sky/wx    tmp dp  rh wind       pres   remarks
memphis intl   ptsunny   73  63  70 sw22g33   29.59f
nws memphis      n/a     72 n/a n/a misg        n/a
jackson        cloudy    70  63  78 s18g25    29.59f
savannah       cloudy    68  64  86 sw18      29.65f
dyersburg      ptsunny   72  59  64 s16g28    29.54f
union city     ptsunny   69  61  76 s17       29.51f
paris          cloudy    67  61  81 sw20      29.56f


...eastern arkansas...

City           sky/wx    tmp dp  rh wind       pres   remarks
jonesboro      ptsunny   72  63  73 sw22g30   29.51s
west memphis   mosunny   71  64  78 s18g31    29.57s
batesville     ptsunny   72  61  68 sw15g25   29.50s
walnut ridge   mosunny   70  63  78 s21g30    29.48f
blytheville    ptsunny   71  63  75 sw28g36   29.52f
nw blytheville ptsunny   70  63  78 sw23g37   29.52f
stuttgart      mosunny   73 n/a n/a s24g31    29.59r
pine bluff     mosunny   75  64  68 sw26g35   29.59s
monticello     ptsunny   75  65  70 s18g25    29.64s


...north mississippi...

City           sky/wx    tmp dp  rh wind       pres   remarks
tupelo         cloudy    70  64  81 sw10g20   29.71s
olive branch   ptsunny   72  68  88 sw14g37   29.61f
greenwood      cloudy    72  65  78 sw22g30   29.72r
columbus       ptsunny   73  65  74 s15g26    29.75s
starkville     ptsunny   73  64  73 s13g23    29.75s
golden triangl ptsunny   73  64  73 s18g28    29.77s


...southeast missouri...

City           sky/wx    tmp dp  rh wind       pres   remarks
doniphan         n/a     69  64  85 se15g26     n/a
west plains    sunny     67  60  78 sw17g24     n/a


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Mesoscale discussion 0204 
nws storm prediction center norman ok 
0907 am cst fri mar 02 2012 

areas affected...nrn al...middle/ern tn...far nwrn ga 

concerning...severe potential...watch possible 

valid 021507z - 021600z 

radar trends indicate an increase in areal coverage and intensity of 
tstms across nrn al and middle tn. The area is being monitored for a 
possible tornado watch. 

Loosely organized tstms have increased in areal coverage within a 
weak waa advection regime across nrn al into parts of middle tn. 12z 
qag/bmx soundings indicate a weak stable layer near 1 km agl...but 
with continued heating the environment should become more favorable 
for sfc based parcels within the next 1-2 hrs. Gwx vwp data also 
show a strong/cyclonically curved low-level hodograph...with 0-1 km 
bulk shear near 35 kts. Primary uncertainty attm is with the 
evolution of tstms...given lack of robust forcing 
mechanisms/mesoscale boundaries...but with a strongly sheared and 
moderately unstable background environment...the potential for large 
hail...dmgg winds...and a tornado or two will exist. Convective 
trends will be monitored over the next few hrs for a possible 
tornado watch.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> I do not like sunny in this situation!!!
> 
> 
> Asus44 kmeg 021500
> ...



I was just looking at the NW Ga / N Alabama radar. Already a cell in Walker county producing .5" hail, and STS warnings out in N Cent. Al. The bad thing is, THIS ISN'T THE FRONT... It is still working it's way through Oklahoma. 

This just goes to prove how volatile this set up is going to be.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Tornado risk is up too...



James Spann made a good point about that map this morning.  People not in the high risk area shouldn't let their guard down.  Even though GA isn't in the 30% area for the tornado 5-15% is still a risk that isn't one to ignore.  That is the risk that a tornado is going to pass within 25 miles of any point in those shaded areas


----------



## DeltaHalo (Mar 2, 2012)

Please God....no bad storms in Cherrylog or Blue Ridge.
I am in no condition to do any cleanup whatsoever right now. My best good friends helped me out last time....I really don't need anything else to add to my to-do list right now....seriously...kthx


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I was just looking at the NW Ga / N Alabama radar. Already a cell in Walker county producing .5" hail, and STS warnings out in N Cent. Al. The bad thing is, THIS ISN'T THE FRONT... It is still working it's way through Oklahoma.
> 
> This just goes to prove how volatile this set up is going to be.



Yep, thats why I was looking at what was going on behind this initial disturbance.  Same thing happened in Alabama last April... The heat of the day mashed the gas, the front pushed in, the jet stream, along with the low level shear...

geeze oh pete...


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Also interesting the surface low over Missouri is already down to 996 mb when the 12z NAM and GFS only had it at 1000mb at this time.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DeltaHalo said:


> Please God....no bad storms in Cherrylog or Blue Ridge.
> I am in no condition to do any cleanup whatsoever right now. My best good friends helped me out last time....I really don't need anything else to add to my to-do list right now....seriously...kthx



And we'll be glad to help you out again, but at a much slower pace and with more volunteers this time...


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> James Spann made a good point about that map this morning.  People not in the high risk area shouldn't let their guard down.  Even though GA isn't in the 30% area for the tornado 5-15% is still a risk that isn't one to ignore.  That is the risk that a tornado is going to pass within 25 miles of any point in those shaded areas



Great point.  Heck ATL and all points West and NW are in the moderate risk zone... 

Its going to get hinky.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

DeltaHalo said:


> Please God....no bad storms in Cherrylog or Blue Ridge.
> I am in no condition to do any cleanup whatsoever right now. My best good friends helped me out last time....I really don't need anything else to add to my to-do list right now....seriously...kthx



That would be in the moderate risk area.  15% chance of tornadoes 45% chance of high wind and hail.  Maybe one will fall on the trailer and catch it on fire somehow


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> James Spann made a good point about that map this morning.  People not in the high risk area shouldn't let their guard down.  Even though GA isn't in the 30% area for the tornado 5-15% is still a risk that isn't one to ignore.  That is the risk that a tornado is going to pass within 25 miles of any point in those shaded areas



I think Dublin Ga and Dothan Alabama learned that lesson yesterday afternoon. Especially Dothan. Lots of damage and they were only in a 2% risk area.

1% is enough for me to be concerned, much less what is happening now...


----------



## DeltaHalo (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> That would be in the moderate risk area.  15% chance of tornadoes 45% chance of high wind and hail.  Maybe one will fall on the trailer and catch it on fire somehow



It better burn it to the ground too then........I could use the insurance money to build more chickenpalaces....dotcom


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Anywhere in a shaded area has the potential to see tornado's, keep that in mind folks.


----------



## DeltaHalo (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> And we'll be glad to help you out again, but at a much slower pace and with more volunteers this time...



Either that, or hire some of them boys that hang out in the Ace Hardware parking lot. I just can't understand their language real good yet....


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 2, 2012)

This isn't going to be as bad as the outbreak last year is it?


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

lbzdually said:


> This isn't going to be as bad as the outbreak last year is it?



Rarely does the risk level get above 30% to see a tornado.  This has the same potential as last year.

Am I saying it will be a repeat?  No, I am saying it has the potential to be a repeat.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

lbzdually said:


> This isn't going to be as bad as the outbreak last year is it?



Any tornado is bad. I doubt we will see a massive outbreak of EF-4s, but then again, temps ahead of the front are mighty warm. I wouldn't count anything out at this point. This is a monster. Sirens are going off in Huntsville as we speak.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Bulletin - eas activation requested 
tornado warning 
national weather service huntsville al 
918 am cst fri mar 2 2012 

the national weather service in huntsville has issued a 

* tornado warning for... 
East central limestone county in north central alabama... 
Northern madison county in north central alabama... 

* until 945 am cst 

* at 918 am cst...national weather service doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near french 
mill...or about near athens...moving east at 45 mph. 

* locations near the path of this tornado include... 
Capshaw. 
Harvest. 
Meridianville. 
Hazel green.


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Rarely does the risk level get above 30% to see a tornado.  This has the same potential as last year.
> 
> Am I saying it will be a repeat?  No, I am saying it has the potential to be a repeat.



Even potential should get people to high alert.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Well Boys and girls... GA maybe more in play than maybe I even thought...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
930 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A 
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

NORTHERN ALABAMA 
NORTHWEST GEORGIA 
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE 

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL 300 
PM CST. 

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND 
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE 
AREAS. 

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE 
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF 
CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH 
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). 

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH 
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR 
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS 
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. 

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55... 

DISCUSSION...A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED 
WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. MODIFICATION OF 
12Z BNA AND HUNTSVILLE SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS 
INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG VERTICAL 
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SEVERE 
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

James Spann will probably be streaming live shortly if not already.


----------



## TNGIRL (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm a gonna throw up ya'll.........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)




----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

TNGIRL said:


> I'm a gonna throw up ya'll.........



You in TN today?


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

TNGIRL said:


> I'm a gonna throw up ya'll.........


 I'd best be hearing from you today!!!!!!!


----------



## TNGIRL (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> You in TN today?



yep Cleveland. 30 miles NE of Chattanooga but in the south of Bradley Cty 2 mi from GA line.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

There are 2 on the ground in Alabama as you can see from Miguel's radar shot.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Showing a good couplet in that cell that is just crossing I-65, on base velocity imaging. No debris ball apparent, but still a dangerous cell.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> There are 2 on the ground in Alabama as you can see from Miguel's radar shot.



That just indicates rotation, it doesn't mean they are on the ground yet. One does have a good couplet indicated, but I'm not picking up a debris ball yet.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Listening to the scanner out of Limestone county AL and they are reporting tornado on the ground.  This is for the cell that just crossed 65.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That just indicates rotation, it doesn't mean they are on the ground yet. One does have a good couplet indicated, but I'm not picking up a debris ball yet.



They have both been spotted by law enforcement.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Listening to the scanner out of Limestone county AL and they are reporting tornado on the ground.  This is for the cell that just crossed 65.



Yep, it just ramped up, with a loose debris ball, near 2" hail and strong velocities.


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 2, 2012)

I;ve got family headed to Nashville now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> They have both been spotted by law enforcement.



got it, thanks.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

lbzdually said:


> I;ve got family headed to Nashville now.



Stay in touch with them and make them aware of the developing situations so they can plan accordingly.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

lbzdually said:


> I;ve got family headed to Nashville now.



If they are anywhere between Chattanooga and Mont Eagle, they probably need to find somewhere safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)




----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

The cell up near Cookville, TN is trying to get its act together.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Huge debris ball on the cell just north of Huntsville now. This is ugly.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD, you see the PDS tornado watch that just went up for western kentucky?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)




----------



## lbzdually (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Stay in touch with them and make them aware of the developing situations so they can plan accordingly.



yessir, I'm keeping them up to date through facebook.  they are going to Vandy to see s pecialist for their 17 month old.  It might be better for them to just stay there tonight as they are just 40 miles from Nville now and won't be leaving until well after noon.


----------



## erniesp (Mar 2, 2012)

For those of you with Twitter, @TWCBreaking is a good one to have. They are tracking these storms with updates constantly.


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Mar 2, 2012)

Any idea of the time this junk could hit the metro Atl area?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> Any idea of the time this junk could hit the metro Atl area?



That's a loaded question. I would expect the main front to come through between midnight and 4 am. HOWEVER, the current instability and increasing temperatures in our area with the cloud cover decreasing is going to allow storms to fire well ahead of the main front, just like they are doing in North Alabama right now.

This isn't a day to let your guard down.


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's a loaded question. I would expect the main front to come through between midnight and 4 am. HOWEVER, the current instability and increasing temperatures in our area with the cloud cover decreasing is going to allow storms to fire well ahead of the main front, just like they are doing in North Alabama right now.
> 
> This isn't a day to let your guard down.


Understood!  Thanks.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's a loaded question. I would expect the main front to come through between midnight and 4 am. HOWEVER, the current instability and increasing temperatures in our area with the cloud cover decreasing is going to allow storms to fire well ahead of the main front, just like they are doing in North Alabama right now.
> 
> This isn't a day to let your guard down.





Point taken. We`re keepin` our eyes open down here too.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel, I know you are very busy today but if you could comment on your thoughts for later tonight though early AM Saturday for us folks say between 1-20 south to say Macon and if you have any updated maps of potental severe weather forcasted.  If I have to go though it again then at least I could take the time to better perpare myself for upcomming system.  Thanks as always for all your hard work and unselfish effort to keep Woodys members informed and as safe as possible.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Not long Tomi before you will be under the gun...keep close to a weather radio


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Miguel, I know you are very busy today but if you could comment on your thoughts for later tonight though early AM Saturday for us folks say between 1-20 south to say Macon and if you have any updated maps of potental severe weather forcasted.  If I have to go though it again then at least I could take the time to better perpare myself for upcomming system.  Thanks as always for all your hard work and unselfish effort to keep Woodys members informed and as safe as possible.



12z model is running now. I'll update when it is through. From 7am to noon on Saturday I'd keep my eyes peeled down in central georgia. But like I just stated, that doesn't mean isolated cells can't pop up ahead of the main line of storms.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

For those of you with smart phones, that through whatever lame excuse.. don't have a weather radio already, download the "iweather radio app" NOW. make sure it has the "i" in front of it. It is gps auto locate operated and just might save your life today or tonight.


----------



## Tvveedie (Mar 2, 2012)

Also, any predictions for tomorrow morning along the Savannah between Augusta and Toccoa?  I was thinking that would be another front than the one bearing down on folks today.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

I see the famous roots from NWGA are in here


----------



## erniesp (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For those of you with smart phones, that through whatever lame excuse.. don't have a weather radio already, download the "iweather radio app" NOW. make sure it has the "i" in front of it. It is gps auto locate operated and just might save your life today or tonight.



Thanks


----------



## Matt.M (Mar 2, 2012)

Isn't it "iMapWeather Radio" app, or has my google sniping failed?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Matt.M said:


> Isn't it "iMapWeather Radio" app, or has my google sniping failed?



Yeah, I just got that question on the phone. Sorry guys. It is called "imap weather radio".


----------



## erniesp (Mar 2, 2012)

Is it the imapweather radio app. Only one I could find with the i


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

erniesp said:


> Is it the imapweather radio app. Only one I could find with the i



yep. just addressed that..


----------



## Matt.M (Mar 2, 2012)

Dangit, no app for a Blackberry.  Does anyone know of an alternative that will do the same thing for a crackberry?


----------



## erniesp (Mar 2, 2012)

Got it Thanks


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I just got that question on the phone. Sorry guys. It is called "imap weather radio".



Any idea if that's available on iPad?  didn't see it in the app store.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Matt.M said:


> Dangit, no app for a Blackberry.  Does anyone know of an alternative that will do the same thing for a crackberry?



I think my wife has berryweather or something like that on hers maybe??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Not trying to be rude or condescending here, just want y'all to understand. DDD and BigOx are at work, monitoring and posting when they can. I am monitoring my RadarLab HD GPS radar product, local storm reports and different radar sites around the SE (which takes a couple of minutes to load each) So if we don't answer your question right away it is because we are busy gathering data as it come in. Plus, in order for me to post a pic of a cell I have to screen capture it then paste it in Paint in order to make it a usable file on this site. Moving as fast as I can when TVS signatures show up, and it gets kind of hairy when that happens.

Often the answers to your questions are in the informational data we have already posted a few posts back. Sometimes not. So please read back a few posts before popping a question up and then we'll get to it right away if possible, but if it takes a few minutes thanks for understanding. You guys are awesome.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

blondiega1 said:


> Any idea if that's available on iPad?  didn't see it in the app store.



Any iphone app will work on the ipad (if you are 3g capable) look under the iphone apps, that's where it lives.


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not trying to be rude or condescending here, just want y'all to understand. DDD and BigOx are at work, monitoring and posting when they can. I am monitoring my RadarLab HD GPS radar product, local storm reports and different radar sites around the SE (which takes a couple of minutes to load each) So if we don't answer your question right away it is because we are busy gathering data as it come in. Plus, in order for me to post a pic of a cell I have to screen capture it then paste it in Paint in order to make it a usable file on this site. Moving as fast as I can when TVS signatures show up, and it gets kind of hairy when that happens.
> 
> Often the answers to your questions are in the informational data we have already posted a few posts back. Sometimes not. So please read back a few posts before popping a question up and then we'll get to it right away if possible, but if it takes a few minutes thanks for understanding. You guys are awesome.



I appreciate what you, DDD, and BigOx do.  Thank you for taking the time and posting informative information.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Mar 2, 2012)

http://www.weathertap.com/

As good a day as any to register for a free 14 day trial.  Very good site to monitor radar.


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Any iphone app will work on the ipad (if you are 3g capable) look under the iphone apps, that's where it lives.



Thank you!
I found it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Nitram4891 said:


> http://www.weathertap.com/
> 
> As good a day as any to register for a free 14 day trial.  Very good site to monitor radar.



What he said, but you'll need to play with it to get a basic understanding of what you are doing. It is the best of the best.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 2, 2012)

Ten-Four I expected and always do expect the unexpected although I may not always be prepared for it. I appreciate the answers and I am patient


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

12z prob. tornado outlook.

If you live in a shaded colored area you are at risk, the higher the percentage the higher the risk. Like I said earlier, even 2% is a good risk for bad weather.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 2, 2012)

And yall are right having the apps on your smart phones and the weather radio;  people it is a must when you have kids, elderly, or you just want to keep yourself safe and the most extreme cases alive!!


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 2, 2012)

well thats means prepare ahead and if it dont happen great, but if it does then so stated you were prepared and might just save some heartache time and money and your life and the lifes of your loved ones


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

When James Spann gets into Tornado mode there is none out there that equal him. It is an alabama feed, but still a good indicator of what is to come and very good to watch. Right now this live streaming feed is just general news, but when they switch over to Spann you will want to be watching.

here's the link:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ABC-33-40-Main


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12z prob. tornado outlook.
> 
> If you live in a shaded colored area you are at risk, the higher the percentage the higher the risk. Like I said earlier, even 2% is a good risk for bad weather.
> 
> View attachment 653844



Lookey there...they did move that moderate risk down further south towards MS and LA


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

18 wheelers and tornado's don't mix. This is off of Jeff Rd. near Huntsville where multiple buildings, a high school and the correctional facility all were damaged.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Surface low to 994mb now.  Significant Tornado Parameter index of 5 entering NW AL.   Crazy the bad stuff isn't even here yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Lookey there...they did move that moderate risk down further south towards MS and LA



They plagiarized my maps from last night...


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Here is why the STP is important in forecasting...



> A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RUC analysis proximity soundings.
> 
> More Info Here:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_stor.html
> 
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/thompson/stp_scp.pdf


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They plagiarized my maps from last night...



Yeap...They looked at your maps and then listened to DDD 



DDD said:


> Where Hugh drew those red lines, you could just copy and paste back into the Mississippi valley and you would have the same effect.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Heads up Tomi. This one is still a dangerous cell.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

That warning is about to be knocking on your door, Tomi


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

On radial velocity I have strong inflow, a good couplet and faint debris ball on that one heading towards cleveland tn.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2012)

why do we get so many tornados now!! when i was a youngan we might (might) have a couple in the spring time but no wide spread outbreaks!!


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> why do we get so many tornados now!! when i was a youngan we might (might) have a couple in the spring time but no wide spread outbreaks!!



End of the world and all.
Haven't you heard?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> why do we get so many tornados now!! when i was a youngan we might (might) have a couple in the spring time but no wide spread outbreaks!!



Just going through the cyclical change of the climates. Plus, less population density in the south when we were younger, so most of them were just tearing up trees. I remember visiting Shiloh National Battlefield after a tornado tore it up as a kid. We didn't have the technology to let us know where they were happening back then either. Really, that technology has just come along in the last few years.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Close call, that cell lost a lot of intensity right before it got to N. Cleveland Tn. Still a bad cell.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just going through the cyclical change of the climates. Plus, less population density in the south when we were younger, so most of them were just tearing up trees. I remember visiting Shiloh National Battlefield after a tornado tore it up as a kid. We didn't have the technology to let us know where they were happening back then either. Really, that technology has just come along in the last few years.



they would have to pay me to live in AL right now. mother nature just keeps reinventing the construction industry for them folks.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Switching to Western Kentucky radar and going to relax a bit before the carnage begins.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> they would have to pay me to live in AL right now. mother nature just keeps reinventing the construction industry for them folks.



If I built a house in Bama it would look like a bunker..


----------



## debo (Mar 2, 2012)

Reports of a touch down in Chattanooga and Oothwah Tn on Hwy 58


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If I built a house in Bama it would look like a bunker..



I have some land south of aniston but they aint no way im building on it..


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Video Briefing:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/ffc/videocast/20120302_svrwx.swf


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Timing


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Mar 2, 2012)

Sorry to see & hear about the rough weather problems going on.  Thanks for all the updates, photos, & graphics images.  



http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/severe-tornado-outbreak-tracker_2012-03-01 

Live Updates: Severe Weather Outbreak


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Cells this morning were travelling ENE. Looking at the cells on the next line just now starting to fire in central MS they are taking the classic NE track, much more dangerous.


----------



## TNGIRL (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey ya'll I'm ok but have heard from friends where tornados touched down in Cleveland in the next cty of Polk. Matter of fact one hit on the street my daughter use to have a home on before she moved 2 yrs ago.
OK show me something map wise for this evening....aren't they done for now? over me that is.... I can't see anything much on tv.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

TNGIRL said:


> Hey ya'll I'm ok but have heard from friends where tornados touched down in Cleveland in the next cty of Polk. Matter of fact one hit on the street my daughter use to have a home on before she moved 2 yrs ago.
> OK show me something map wise for this evening....aren't they done for now? over me that is.... I can't see anything much on tv.



If you leave right now you'll be in Ga just in time to enjoy the storms when they hit here tonight...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Temps wayyyy to warm to avoid trouble. Two lines starting to fire. One in Ms. and a second in La.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Another pic out of Huntsville from this morning's stroms.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

James Spann is now streaming an update.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ABC-33-40-Main


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Mar 2, 2012)

Looks like we're gonna dodge most of it here !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Looks like we're gonna dodge most of it here !!



Ummm, says who?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

SPC just put N Ga in a Tornado watch.


 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 61
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   320 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

          NORTHERN GEORGIA
          WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
          UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
          EASTERN TENNESSEE
          FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM EST.

   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...WW 58...WW
   59...WW 60...

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE
   TN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WATCH AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
   ADDITIONAL IN SITU STORM FORMATION POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
   NWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE WITH THE NWD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY ALONG WARM
   FRONT...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A
   FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ummm, says who?






Grrrrrrrrrr.  Nebbermind.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

25 miles north of Louisville. Trust me, you do not want to see one of these.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 2, 2012)

UI'l be going back into work when you can't see.Depending on how bad it is at the time I may decide to shut everything down.
Tis better to have control of the shutdown thjan be forced by nature to shutdown.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Mark...you heard from your family yet?  Looks like they're just lined up over the whole state of Kentucky.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Storm chasers streaming...

http://www.chasertv.com/


----------



## topfuelgirl (Mar 2, 2012)

Miquel,
What does the green mean for Paulding county GA?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

topfuelgirl said:


> Miquel,
> What does the green mean for Paulding county GA?



Flash Flood Watch


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

I love weathertap. I just figured out I can have three different weather radar site windows open at the same time.. Watching the South Central Ky, Birmingham and Atlanta radars all at the same time. Plus I have the SE weather radar on also.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I love weathertap. I just figured out I can have three different weather radar site windows open at the same time.. Watching the South Central Ky, Birmingham and Atlanta radars all at the same time. Plus I have the SE weather radar on also.



What's it say about that cell headed up 40 towards nashville?


----------



## mudracing101 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I love weathertap. I just figured out I can have three different weather radar site windows open at the same time.. Watching the South Central Ky, Birmingham and Atlanta radars all at the same time. Plus I have the SE weather radar on also.



Should all about miss us, down here, right?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> What's it say about that cell headed up 40 towards nashville?



That's not covered on these sites...



mudracing101 said:


> Should all about miss us, down here, right?



Says who?


----------



## mudracing101 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's not covered on these sites...
> 
> 
> 
> Says who?



THats what i'm askin you


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> What's it say about that cell headed up 40 towards nashville?




OK, now I have four sites up and running simultaneously. 

Lee, that cell heading towards nashville is ugly, baseball sized hail, good rotation. No funnel yet, but good inflow.



mudracing101 said:


> THats what i'm askin you



I wouldn't bet on it. Tomorrow will be the your day.


----------



## spotman (Mar 2, 2012)

Miquel, what do you think of the cells moving into the south metro right now?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

spotman said:


> Miquel, what do you think of the cells moving into the south metro right now?



Benign, for now.


----------



## kevincox (Mar 2, 2012)

Henryville, Indiana is just gone. Sad


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Folks in Nashville need to get underground, NOW!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

damage to structures on I40 west of Nashville.


----------



## Nate23 (Mar 2, 2012)

ground truth from Nashville


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Nate that looks like that would hurt real bad.

All storms in general seem to be losing a tad of energy and not quite as intense. This may be good news for us that will have to deal with the night time weather later on.


----------



## todd03blown (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nate that looks like that would hurt real bad.
> 
> All storms in general seem to be losing a tad of energy and not quite as intense. This may be good news for us that will have to deal with the night time weather later on.



There sure are a ton lined up to our west, heading our way.  I sure hope we get lucky and they lose some energy as they approach.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Marysville Indiana, heartbreaking picture.


----------



## crackerdave (Mar 2, 2012)

Looks like a rough spring this year,if it's this bad _already!_


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Our tornado watch has been expanded.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

March is coming in like a Lion AGAIN. Thanks Hugh for all you do. You just don't know how much you are appreciated.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> March is coming in like a Lion AGAIN. That's Hugh for all you do. You just don't know how much you are appreciated.



You gonna stay up late with me and track these bad boys??


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You gonna stay up late with me and track these bad boys??



I sure am.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You gonna stay up late with me and track these bad boys??



I will too!!!
























Got time to teach me???


----------



## todd03blown (Mar 2, 2012)

I will be up watching your posts. As the other person noted, thanks so much for what you do!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> I will too!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...





And to the others, y'all are welcome. If something hits your house and I don't see it coming just send the bill to Nicodemus...


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm a self admitted weather junkie, but I'm too blonde to understand all them maps and junk, so I'll just be tuning in here y'all's updates!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Mar 2, 2012)

My hometown is fixing to get hit


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Wall cloud in Trussville Alabama a few minutes ago. This is a monster.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Gotta step away for a half hour or so. Someone steer this horse.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

I don't know how to drive no horse.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

OK folks, Turn on your TV's or radio's................Ox DDD anybody


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Im in da house.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Only briefly, though.  

Everyone needs to glue to the radar, plain and simple.  If a cell gets near you take cover.  Its that simple.

Your weather radio is your friend.  Going to get my daughter and some grub.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 2, 2012)

Never saw tornado chances this high here in the mountains in 40-some  years. I watched a cell plow across the main 6000+ foot main spine of the Smokies today and kept spinning for about thirty miles on this side. It was headed toward me ( I live about 15 miles from the Tennessee line) and finally broke up a little when it hit the 6000' Balsam Range on the edge of my county. Gonna be glued to the radar tonight for sure.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Im in da house.


----------



## CharlesH (Mar 2, 2012)

It's coming to Haralson and Paulding.........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm back. Let me finish chawin my bbq sammich and I'll jump back on da' haws..


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

This cell coming towards paulding is scaring me!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

As it should Blondie. It just popped up a TVS signature;

Here's the info.


----------



## Trigabby (Mar 2, 2012)

Dang, don't know which channel is the best to watch.. I guess Glenn isn't too bad to watch while I <F5> <F5> <F5>....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

There's a ton of lightning with these cells, so y'all watch out for that also.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Trigabby said:


> Dang, don't know which channel is the best to watch.. I guess Glenn isn't too bad to watch while I <F5> <F5> <F5>....



I watch the computer and listen to all my gadgets...

But one local met is as good as another in Georgia. As long as you are staying aware and prepared.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

There's a good hail core on the backside of that storm over the Harralson / Polk line heading to paulding.


----------



## westcobbdog (Mar 2, 2012)

miguel, can you project these storm paths? metro atl storms..Im in a slab home near Lost Mt


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As it should Blondie. It just popped up a TVS signature;
> 
> Here's the info.
> 
> View attachment 653924



Sirens going off in Dallas!


----------



## coilee (Mar 2, 2012)

MC thanks for the updates I watch these threads all the time. I lurk but never posted on weather threads just wanted to say thanks to all who contribute to these.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Lookin like it might get interestin here shortly


----------



## whitetaco02 (Mar 2, 2012)

Is this more for north Georgia?  Anything coming down this way?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

You folks in Bartow, watch out for this one. It isn't showing TVS yet, but is gaining strength and is a good one.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> Is this more for north Georgia?  Anything coming down this way?



Eventually, yes.


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm really scared! Praying it passes just north of us! We are about 2 miles south of Dallas.


----------



## Trigabby (Mar 2, 2012)

You SHOULD be good.. It looks to be North of you a good bit.  (10-12 miles)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Downed trees in Harrelson Cty.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Blood on the Ground is right in the middle of that one in Yorkville...


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Trigabby said:


> You SHOULD be good.. It looks to be North of you a good bit.  (10-12 miles)



Yeah. Watching the radar close! I can feel it in my sinuses!
I'm very sensitive to air pressure changes.


----------



## Buck (Mar 2, 2012)

Fellas it's gettin ugly here.  Storm heading towards Dallas is on a dead on treck for the house...


----------



## coilee (Mar 2, 2012)

We are having thunder in Forsyth county now but no rain yet.


----------



## ryano (Mar 2, 2012)

that cell over on 75 around Calhoun has me worried.   looks like its headed right for Jasper


----------



## coilee (Mar 2, 2012)

As soon as I typed that it started with the rain


----------



## SGaither (Mar 2, 2012)

Broad rotation just west of Dallas. Take cover just confirmed, yorkville has seen a tornado


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Buck said:


> Fellas it's gettin ugly here.  Storm heading towards Dallas is on a dead on treck for the house...



Amatuer report of tornado on ground in Yorkville. Right where BloodonGround is. I bet he won't beg to go storm chasing again anytime soon. I hope he is ok. He hasn't returned my text yet.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

I'm still here, just


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 2, 2012)

Buck said:


> Fellas it's gettin ugly here.  Storm heading towards Dallas is on a dead on treck for the house...



Please stay safe!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

You guys over there be careful. This is a bad one.


----------



## Crickett (Mar 2, 2012)

Man it's gettin bad here near Woodstock


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm still here, just



Hang in there with me. It's gettin hairy.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Amatuer report of tornado on ground in Yorkville. Right where BloodonGround is. I bet he won't beg to go storm chasing again anytime soon. I hope he is ok. He hasn't returned my text yet.



Dang. I aint chasing no more.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

We just headed to the basement.  Good luck everyone


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Yeap...Satellite just went out


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hang in there with me. It's gettin hairy.



I'm hangin dang it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Just talked to Blood on ground, he said it was bad scary and the lightning is incredible.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> We just headed to the basement.  Good luck everyone



hit us back soon.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Mar 2, 2012)

Posting from phone, net is down here. What does it look like for us here in Forsyth?


----------



## Fro1911nut (Mar 2, 2012)

it just went to poo in acworth lighting is bad


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> We just headed to the basement.  Good luck everyone



dang it.... let us know how it goes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> Posting from phone, net is down here. What does it look like for us here in Forsyth?



You've got one little cell heading your way right now, nothing bad. May get rougher when the front gets to our side.


----------



## Jeff C. (Mar 2, 2012)

Aight Hugh...which one of these little radar tracker thingies do I need to track this stuff???


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 2, 2012)

Wow what a rude awakening,I'm in burnt hickory estates.Just rain here so far.


----------



## safebuilder (Mar 2, 2012)

Dont be scared be prepared...this is what you need


----------



## Sugar Plum (Mar 2, 2012)

Jeff C. said:


> Aight Hugh...which one of these little radar tracker thingies do I need to track this stuff???



Can one of you guys send a text if something big heads this way? My phone is slow to reload and nothing else is working without net.


----------



## Rockdale Buck (Mar 2, 2012)

Nothing but light showers yet in Rockdale


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Strong cell crossing the state line into Floyd


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> Can one of you guys send a text if something big heads this way? My phone is slow to reload and nothing else is working without net.



Yes dear...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Damage to buildings 4 miles west of Dallas.


----------



## Jeff C. (Mar 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> Can one of you guys send a text if something big heads this way? My phone is slow to reload and nothing else is working without net.



Sure....I'll be up until it's safe.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Mar 2, 2012)

hail


----------



## shakey gizzard (Mar 2, 2012)

Here we go!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

The storm is right on top of BigOx now.


----------



## foxtrotterz (Mar 2, 2012)

Sounds like small hail starting in Woodstock, near Cobb line on 92.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Tornado Warning for Gwinnett County.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Mar 2, 2012)

We had up to 1/4 size hail...wade green rd/75 looks like it just went south of us


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

Missed us south by just a bit thank goodness.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Mar 2, 2012)

Thanks Hugh and Jeff! Can't quote on the phone. Will check in again soon!


----------



## Bulldawg76 (Mar 2, 2012)

In basement near blackwell / Canton hwy


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 2, 2012)

Tornado on the ground over around Leary, Calhoun County.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Missed us south by just a bit thank goodness.



Thank goodness. Thought you got it.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

Looks like it might be headed toward boneboy


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Mar 2, 2012)

Be careful & stay weather aware in North Fulton Cty. in the Roswell, Crabapple, Alpharetta, John's Creek areas. 








Semitrailer truck on it's side in Henryville, Indiana.  Marysville is "completely gone".


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Damage confirmed in Marietta.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 2, 2012)

sirens going off here ......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Tornado warning in Bartow cty.


----------



## elvis*tcb (Mar 2, 2012)

Sirens in bartow


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Sounds like it missed our office there at Chastain and 575.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

StripperAddict is under the gun in Suwannee.


----------



## Sargent (Mar 2, 2012)

We had hail in Woodstock. Not much, maybe bb sized. 

Okay... I get it.  You guys can press the stop button now.


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Sounds like it missed our office there at Chastain and 575.



Yeap...went south of there.  I think it crossed 75 right around the north loop.


----------



## rhbama3 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> StripperAddict is under the gun in Suwannee.



Bubbette and Allie are taking cover in Collins hill HS in Suwanee. She says they have been told they are under tornado warning.


----------



## Shane Dockery (Mar 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Sounds like it missed our office there at Chastain and 575.



Went just south of that location. Trees went crazy for a minute, but no damage at the moment


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

This one is developing a hook, possible debris ball, maybe a funnel trying to drop. Y'all keep  your ears peeled.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Mar 2, 2012)

More Peachtree City NWS Tornado Warnings . . . 



http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFFC/1203030239.wfus52.html 


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
939 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN BARROW COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA  
  SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA  
  NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA  
  SOUTHERN HALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA  
  WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA  

* UNTIL 1030 PM EST  

* AT 938 PM EST...A DEBRIS SIGNATURE INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR        
  CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR SUWANEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUGAR  
  HILL...BUFORD...REST HAVEN...FLOWERY BRANCH...OAKWOOD...AUBURN...  
  CARL...GAINESVILLE...BRASELTON...HOSCHTON...TALMO...PENDERGRASS...  
  GILLSVILLE...JEFFERSON AND ARCADE.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Ms. Hornet, which side of Winder are you on? You just earned a tornado warning. The big cell in Suwanee just shifted south a little.


----------



## mbl223 (Mar 2, 2012)

In johns creek at my parents house.  No tornado, small hail and a couple of downpours.  Lots of lightning.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ms. Hornet, which side of Winder are you on? You just earned a tornado warning. The big cell in Suwanee just shifted south a little.


 MANDY!!!!!!!!!!! ANSWER!!!!!!!


----------



## david w. (Mar 2, 2012)

good grief


----------



## biggtruxx (Mar 2, 2012)

How do you have Banded under your name yet you are posting?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Hamilton Mill is about to get busy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> MANDY!!!!!!!!!!! ANSWER!!!!!!!



She lied, she isn't hanging with me like she said she would...


----------



## Priest (Mar 2, 2012)

Wow.... from the on the ground reports here... there are a lot of you guys right around the corner from me.

Stupidly heavy rain for a bit and we went to the basement briefly.  It is all calm as of now.  Trickum and Jamerson Rd where marietta meets woodstock


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

biggtruxx said:


> How do you have Banded under your name yet you are posting?


 the admins love me........... ~notice it says "banded" not *banned*........... BIG difference!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Mar 2, 2012)

Hope this slows down before it hits central GA. I'm praying for the folks around ATL.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> She lied, she isn't hanging with me like she said she would...


we swapped out, sorry shuggums, I"m here with you now......
You're doing GREAT!!


----------



## biggtruxx (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> the admins love me........... ~notice it says "banded" not *banned*........... BIG difference!


 

Gotta be a duck hunter


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 2, 2012)

Had one slid through about ten miles north of me a while ago, one just passed about twenty miles to the south, and got another one still headed roughly this way but looks like it's weakening and gonna go a bit to the south of me too, knock on wood. Very unusual here in the mountains. These are some strong cells, the two to the south of me have been lit up with tornado warnings since they came out of Alabama a couple -three hours ago, longest continuous tracks I've ever seen in this neck of the woods at least.


----------



## nhancedsvt (Mar 2, 2012)

Anybody have any idea what it's looking like for just North of Macon later?


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 2, 2012)

What about a cell near Alpharetta supposedly headed this way?


----------



## Shane Dockery (Mar 2, 2012)

Priest said:


> Wow.... from the on the ground reports here... there are a lot of you guys right around the corner from me.
> 
> Stupidly heavy rain for a bit and we went to the basement briefly.  It is all calm as of now.  Trickum and Jamerson Rd where marietta meets woodstock



I'm right at piedmont and bells ferry. Pretty calm at the moment. Crazy part is how fast the moisture dried after the rain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> we swapped out, sorry shuggums, I"m here with you now......
> You're doing GREAT!!



got toothpicks in my eyelids. 5am was a lonnnng time ago. Keep pinchin me to make sure I stay with it...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> What about a cell near Alpharetta supposedly headed this way?



yep, it's past Buford now, weakening some.


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> yep, it's past Buford now, weakening some.



Well thats good news


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

biggtruxx said:


> Gotta be a duck hunter


 Nope, darlin' I ain't NEVER hunted ducks, I promise!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> got toothpicks in my eyelids. 5am was a lonnnng time ago. Keep pinchin me to make sure I stay with it...


Oh how I'd LOVE to pinch you for real!
You're doing great, keep on, if ya HAVE to, grab ya some coke or mountain dew, I won't tell nor fuss at ya, you deserve it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Nope, darlin' I ain't NEVER hunted ducks, I promise!
> 
> Oh how I'd LOVE to pinch you for real!
> You're doing great, keep on, if ya HAVE to, grab ya some coke or mountain dew, I won't tell nor fuss at ya, you deserve it!



Nope, done had my one Dr. Pepper for the day. Water now.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Mar 2, 2012)

Did lightning hit the clock again?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Tie your cheekuns down Sis, it ain't lettin up that much yet.


----------



## jgriffi87 (Mar 2, 2012)

Reporting in from Winder. At the moment nothing much but a little rain. Wind is really picking up though.


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Mar 2, 2012)

Is it snowing in my backyard?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

threeleggedpigmy said:


> Is it snowing in my backyard?



How much hail did you get?


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 2, 2012)

threeleggedpigmy said:


> Is it snowing in my backyard?


Close!


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tie your cheekuns down Sis, it ain't lettin up that much yet.





Its lightin up round here pretty nasty right now


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 2, 2012)

That line west of Gadsen is headed right for Whitfield and Murray counties.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Guys, Do not go to sleep on us!  There is a TON of weather to come!


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How much hail did you get?


Enough to be seen that it is all.    


bigox911 said:


> Close!


----------



## nhancedsvt (Mar 2, 2012)

nhancedsvt said:


> Anybody have any idea what it's looking like for just North of Macon later?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

nhancedsvt said:


>



Stormy.

Hey Snowy, you still there? It's on your back porch.


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Yeah, rain and lightening/thunder right now is all


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Lots of rain moving into middle west georgia ahead of the front. That should help to cool things off and stabilize the weather moving in later on for you folks. Keep your fingers crossed.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

I may call it a night... even the stuff in Alabama is cooling its heels.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey boys....... Is this junk easing off any or is maintaining? What do you think about our chances up here Hugh, DDD??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Unicoidawg said:


> Hey boys....... Is this junk easing off any or is maintaining? What do you think about our chances up here Hugh, DDD??



Still ugly over in Calhoun moving ene, and a pair more back north of gadsden al moving that same way.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 2, 2012)

You fellers been on your toes tonight. Nice work, and we thank you for it.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Looks like mostly heavy rain.  The front was supposed to sag further south sand somewhat stall out.  It sorta looks like its stalling early.


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 2, 2012)

Preciate yall keepin us up to date


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Still plenty of lightning up that way, I'm gonna hang a little longer till my eyes won't stay open,,,,,,,,,or till yall see me type something like,,,,,,,, jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj


That means I fell asleep on the keyboard and someone needs to wake me up..


----------



## K80 (Mar 2, 2012)

Comin down pretty hard.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey I don't mind the heavy rain and stormy stuff. It's just those dang twisty things that scare the bejesus outta me. Be there done that........


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, done had my one Dr. Pepper for the day. Water now.





threeleggedpigmy said:


> Is it snowing in my backyard?




Rain in Dulieville!


----------



## Fletch_W (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel, any more info on your post #303? 

My wife's grandparents and aunt and uncle and cousin live in a house right directly under the crosshair in that graphic.... Everette Mountain Road. They are not responding to communications... hopefully just cell towers and telephone lines down..


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

So the back line that is drawing a almost perfect line from Houston TX up to Tenn, is that going to be the end of it?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Unicoidawg said:


> Hey I don't mind the heavy rain and stormy stuff. It's just those dang twisty things that scare the bejesus outta me. Be there done that........


I know what you mean.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> So the back line that is drawing a almost perfect line from Houston TX up to Tenn, is that going to be the end of it?



When it finally makes it through it will. That will take a while. Should be almost over up in Dalton.


----------



## Trigabby (Mar 2, 2012)

biggtruxx said:


> How do you have Banded under your name yet you are posting?


----------



## Fletch_W (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel, DDD, where can I get radar that is more than 2 hours old, for free?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey BJ, I spoke too soon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Fletch_W said:


> Miguel, DDD, where can I get radar that is more than 2 hours old, for free?



Don't know that it exist. Some folks use WeatherUnderground.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

Fletch_W said:


> Miguel, DDD, where can I get radar that is more than 2 hours old, for free?



I used to have a 24 hour radar site and I lost the link.



Tornado warning for Dawsonville and Dahlonega.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Trigabby said:


>


oh HUSH!
still raining here!


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Sure hope the two tornadoes over in west Bama die off before they make it my way, it looks like one on top of the other and they are pointed right at me.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey BJ, I spoke too soon.
> 
> View attachment 653961



Yeah ole Ken just said it and the sirens are going off. I'm about 4 miles east of town and you can hear it.


----------



## DDD (Mar 2, 2012)

They have extended the coverage of the tornado watch and the amount of time.

I thought they were going to die down and I was going to go to sleep, but they seem like they might be re-firing


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> Sure hope the two tornadoes over in west Bama die off before they make it my way, it looks like one on top of the other and they are pointed right at me.



X2 I was watching that too. Looks to have its sights all over West Coweta.


----------



## JCBANJO02 (Mar 2, 2012)

what about the storm headed towards lagrange? any updates on it? The news is only showing the stuff thats already in Ga.


and thanks for your updates!


----------



## Fletch_W (Mar 2, 2012)

Wunderground is what I normally use, they just don't have the zoom-in thing over google maps like weather.com does... but yes.. superimposing it in my mind, that was a bad bad storm with a definite "When Blue Meets Red, Get Under The Bed" radial velocity. Still no word from the folks there... without amateur radio, not sure how that would be done after something like that passes through a rural area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

JCBANJO02 said:


> what about the storm headed towards lagrange? any updates on it? The news is only showing the stuff thats already in Ga.
> 
> 
> and thanks for your updates!



Yeah, I've been watching that one for a lonnnnnng time now.



Fletch_W said:


> Wunderground is what I normally use, they just don't have the zoom-in thing over google maps like weather.com does... but yes.. superimposing it in my mind, that was a bad bad storm with a definite "When Blue Meets Red, Get Under The Bed" radial velocity. Still no word from the folks there... without amateur radio, not sure how that would be done after something like that passes through a rural area.


Sure they do, it's under radar products called Wundermap

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

You still with me Keebs??


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 2, 2012)

Fletch....I use Weatherspark.com  Can get up to 5 hours possibly more there.


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 2, 2012)

Just got home from something and saw that this was going crazy....didn't realize it was so bad here until I got word from my bro/sis in law up in Suwanee that the sirens were off and running about an hour or so ago.  Thankfully they're okay.

Glad to hear that things are winding down and the front is stalling out.


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 2, 2012)

Am I seeing a hook 15 miles SE of Huntsville, or am I getting gun shy?


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I've been watching that one for a lonnnnnng time now.



There seems to be a tornado south east of B'ham, it shows on my radar where it was one, then two .. then they died off and now one is back again? That is the one that looks like if it keeps up it'll come my way, what are the odds of that?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

rjcruiser said:


> Just got home from something and saw that this was going crazy....didn't realize it was so bad here until I got word from my bro/sis in law up in Suwanee that the sirens were off and running about an hour or so ago.  Thankfully they're okay.
> 
> Glad to hear that things are winding down and the front is stalling out.



Well, they're not winding down and the front is still moving. 

It's gonna be a loooonnnngggg night.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

snookdoctor said:


> Am I seeing a hook 15 miles SE of Huntsville, or am I getting gun shy?



Gunshy


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> There seems to be a tornado south east of B'ham, it shows on my radar where it was one, then two .. then they died off and now one is back again? That is the one that looks like if it keeps up it'll come my way, what are the odds of that?



Still plenty of rough stuff about to move across the state line well ahead of the front.


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, they're not winding down and the front is still moving.
> 
> It's gonna be a loooonnnngggg night.



crap....I guess I read DDDs post and didn't catch is last one that said things were firing back up.

guess I'll be keeping an eye on things tonight and catching up on sleep tomorrow.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You still with me Keebs??


 I'zzz here, shuggums!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> I'zzz here, shuggums!



Keep pinchin. I got me some orville redin,,,reddun,,,reden,,,,,,,,pffffffft Popcorn and tomorrows Dr. Pepper, since I figured I'll be sleeping most of the day tomorrow anyway...


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

Im no Keebs but im hanging with ya MC!
What do you think about the cell headed towards Carrollton. My dad is in a nursing home right in line with it.
Im doing my best to keep up on em and watch them, but im not nearly as good as you guys.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> Im no Keebs but im hanging with ya MC!
> What do you think about the cell headed towards Carrollton. My dad is in a nursing home right in line with it.
> Im doing my best to keep up on em and watch them, but im not nearly as good as you guys.....



It's a good meso cell but I don't see any couplets in it at the moment. The one down near Alexander City is still rockin and rollin though.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

Just got done from taking 2 different detours around Paulding County. I talked to my sister (who lives off of 61 for those in paulding). She said there was considerable damage off of 61. Power is out in parts of Dallas, and now Dallas PD and PCSO have about a 2 mile stretch of highway 61 shut down (around sara babb park and the library). I believe that it has been confirmed that a tornado touched down in that area earlier. Luckily it missed my sisters house by about half a mile


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Kendallbearden said:


> Just got done from taking 2 different detours around Paulding County. I talked to my sister (who lives off of 61 for those in paulding). She said there was considerable damage off of 61. Power is out in parts of Dallas, and now Dallas PD and PCSO have about a 2 mile stretch of highway 61 shut down (around sara babb park and the library). I believe that it has been confirmed that a tornado touched down in that area earlier. Luckily it missed my sisters house by about half a mile



I wondered where you've been.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's a good meso cell but I don't see any couplets in it at the moment. The one down near Alexander City is still rockin and rollin though.



Your the man MC! Just as I refreshed and saw this the Warning with the storm was cancelled!

Mad skills my friend!


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

I know this has been discussed many times, but why does this always happen for us here at night???
Never a good time for this type of weather, but night time adds alot of hinkiness too it. Frustrating.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wondered where you've been.


 
Was at a wedding reception in carrollton until about 9. Then, after talking to my sister (who lives in the area where the damage is) i decided to ride out there and check on things myself while there was a break in the weather. Didn't see much damage personally other than a couple trees down. They had the road shut down by the time i got there. My sister made it through before they shut the roads down though. She said it was real bad along the stretch of hwy 61 that they shut down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

7 pages and 314 posts just today alone, and we're not even close to done with this one. Someone tell those drivelers they're a bunch of rookies...


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still plenty of rough stuff about to move across the state line well ahead of the front.



The one im a little worried about is at Alexander city bama right now. Just seems weird to me how its kept its strenght for so long ... but i aint no weather man, thats for sure.

Edit: Aw man, another one just popped up right on it, we're back up to two again ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> The one im a little worried about is at Alexander city bama right now. Just seems weird to me how its kept its strenght for so long ... but i aint no weather man, thats for sure.



If it helps, it is finally weakening a little bit too. We'll see how that works out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey Cody, that Alex City cell is venting at 35,000 feet. That's some pretty healthy echo tops. I'll be watching it for sure.


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey Cody, that Alex City cell is venting at 35,000 feet. That's some pretty healthy echo tops. I'll be watching it for sure.




It keeps going from one to two tornadoes...

I think its got about 100 miles to get to me, but its already gone a long way without dying off much.


----------



## Fletch_W (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I've been watching that one for a lonnnnnng time now.
> 
> 
> Sure they do, it's under radar products called Wundermap
> ...



But that only gives me 6 frames of radar. Weather dot com gives me 20 when superimposed over the map. 

Wunderground NEXRAD goes back further in time, but not on Wundermap.


----------



## JCBANJO02 (Mar 2, 2012)

MC what is the prdicted path for the one in Alex City? im in south east coweta can i go to sleep?


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

Hey MC, anything else major headed my way tonight? (you can look at the cool super radar, i just got weather.com)

I'm about 1 mile north of hiram in paulding.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> It keeps going from one to two tornadoes...
> 
> I think its got about 100 miles to get to me, but its already gone a long way without dying off much.



You must be close to Sugar Plum.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 2, 2012)

It appears its all loosing a small amount of steam. Thats the way it looks based off warnings anyways. I sure hope so anyway.

By the way, MC, DDD, and all other weather gurus. This thread is simply outstanding. Every year the Severe Weather threads and Winter Weather threads are hands down my favorites on the entire board. I turn to you guys with much more faith than the talking heads. Its not only fun but very informative and educational also to follow along with you all. In a nutshell.........THANK YOU!!!


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You must be close to Sugar Plum.



North of her about 30 minutes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

JCBANJO02 said:


> MC what is the prdicted path for the one in Alex City? im in south east coweta can i go to sleep?







Kendallbearden said:


> Hey MC, anything else major headed my way tonight? (you can look at the cool super radar, i just got weather.com)
> 
> I'm about 1 mile north of hiram in paulding.



Y'all can go to sleep.....but it's gonna get kind of noisy later on...

Paulding will light up like  a christmas tree when the front gets there, and that cell in Alex city is making a bee line for Coweta / Forsyth area.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

slip said:


> North of her about 30 minutes.


 stalker!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> stalker!



You better quit dozin off on me!!!


----------



## slip (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> stalker!



Nah, i just hunt down in her neck of the woods all the time ..


----------



## Keebs (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You better quit dozin off on me!!!


 I ain't dozed off a bit YET......... Heck, I've been trying to FIND you everywhere!!!  Plus, it's gotten right  *nice* down this way, getting vewy sweeppyyy.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all can go to sleep.....but it's gonna get kind of noisy later on...
> 
> Paulding will light up like a christmas tree when the front gets there, and that cell in Alex city is making a bee line for Coweta / Forsyth area.


 
well that's good.....

Glad i've got a finished basement 

It's still close to 70 degrees here, i figured it would get rough when the front comes through.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Keebs said:


> I ain't dozed off a bit YET......... Heck, I've been trying to FIND you everywhere!!!  Plus, it's gotten right  *nice* down this way, getting vewy sweeppyyy.





*WAKE UPPPPP !!! *


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

33 people viewing this thread...someone other than MC say something


----------



## Sugar Plum (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You must be close to Sugar Plum.



Is it safe for me to get some sleep? I's tired.



Keebs said:


> stalker!



I know, right?


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Paulding will light up like  a christmas tree when the front gets there, and that cell in Alex city is making a bee line for Coweta / Forsyth area.



  Looks like it is going to be hitting Covington too.  

From my calcs...looks to be around 2:30-3AM arrival...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

I just got an unconfirmed report of a tornado in geneva county Alabama. Where the heck is that????


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I just got an unconfirmed report of a tornado in geneva county Alabama. Where the heck is that????


 
It's the state to the west of Georgia


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2012)

Kendallbearden said:


> It's the state to the west of Georgia


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

rjcruiser said:


> Looks like it is going to be hitting Covington too.
> 
> From my calcs...looks to be around 2:30-3AM arrival...



The way the wind is picking up and the front pushing down it may get to me and you before that cell can.


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I just got an unconfirmed report of a tornado in geneva county Alabama. Where the heck is that????



Way south at the FL line. Very SE corner.


----------



## grunt0331 (Mar 3, 2012)

Anyone know the projected path of the storm in Coweta County.  Anything headed towards Walton County?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

snookdoctor said:


> Way south at the FL line. Very SE corner.


They must be hittin the home brew down there or something.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

grunt0331 said:


> Anyone know the projected path of the storm in Coweta County.  Anything headed towards Walton County?



Everything is pushing ene at about 50 mph. 

It'll be picking up here in Walton in a few with the front pushing down.


----------



## SGADawg (Mar 3, 2012)

I been keepin up wit you guys all night but I's tired.  Looks like most of our fun will be sometime tomorrow. Wifey has a 5 pm outdoor wedding to go to tomorrow.  I spec she will need her galoshes.


----------



## kevincox (Mar 3, 2012)

Tornado watch for Putnam and Morgan counties until 2am.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

SGADawg said:


> I been keepin up wit you guys all night but I's tired.  Looks like most of our fun will be sometime tomorrow. Wifey has a 5 pm outdoor wedding to go to tomorrow.  I spec she will need her galoshes.



Lapse rate with these cells are between 10 and 20 inches per hour, fortunately the cells pass over in about 10 minutes. But that's still dumpin some serious water.


----------



## grunt0331 (Mar 3, 2012)

Got my weather radio on, right next to the bed.  Much appreciation for what y'all do.  MC and DDD are the reason I bought a weather radio last spring.  Keep up the good work and good night!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

3 hours and 50 minutes until the forum shuts down for an hour. At that point y'all are on your own...


----------



## SGADawg (Mar 3, 2012)

'fore I go to bed, MC, DDD and you others, i appreciate what you do on here.  Ya'll and the weather channel is about the only weather we get and it seems that the Wc is always showing Weather Stories or some such right when we need timely info.  Thanks a bunch.


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

The one that was over alexander just will not give up The tornado goes away, and comes back .. over and over.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Sumter County Alabama, roof just got blown off. That's on the leading edge of the front on the west side of Bama.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> The one that was over alexander just will not give up The tornado goes away, and comes back .. over and over.



Must be a female storm...


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They must be hittin the home brew down there or something.



Breaking news from Geneva Co.

A guy going out for another beer run backed into his neighbors trailer. Trailer resident felt the trailer shaking, ran out nekkid,  and started yellin "the twister done got me". Quack was nowhere to be found, so they officially classified it as a turnader.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> *WAKE UPPPPP !!! *


I AIN'T ASLEEP!!!yet.......


Sugar Plum said:


> Is it safe for me to get some sleep? I's tired.
> 
> 
> 
> I know, right?





rjcruiser said:


> Looks like it is going to be hitting Covington too.
> 
> From my calcs...looks to be around 2:30-3AM arrival...


Perfect timing??????
Seriously, MC, DDD, Big Ox, thanks for all ya'll do!


----------



## Jeff C. (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> The one that was over alexander just will not give up The tornado goes away, and comes back .. over and over.



Keep an eye on it, the one from last April that came through here, I tracked it from the Alabama/Ga. line.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

snookdoctor said:


> Breaking news from Geneva Co.
> 
> A guy going out for another beer run backed into his neighbors trailer. Trailer resident felt the trailer shaking, ran out nekkid,  and started yellin "the twister done got me". Quack was nowhere to be found, so they officially classified it as a turnader.



I feel that is a pretty accurate rendition of what happened..


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> The one that was over alexander just will not give up The tornado goes away, and comes back .. over and over.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Must be a female storm...


 don't you two EVEN go there.............


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Keebs said:


> don't you two EVEN go there.............



Done went there, whatcha gonna do about it?


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Must be a female storm...



There seems to be less lightning with it, does that mean it might be getting weaker?


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Tornado sirens going off in troup county. 

T


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Done went there, whatcha gonna do about it?





slip said:


> There seems to be less lightning with it, does that mean it might be getting weaker?


you two show up next weekend at designated spot & I'll show/tell ya................ ok, 'nuff for me...........


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

so much for getting sleep tonight.  raining and thundering here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> There seems to be less lightning with it, does that mean it might be getting weaker?





Throwback said:


> Tornado sirens going off in troup county.
> 
> T



On my radar there's a ton of lightning with it. It has a very nice hail shaft running off of the backside now also.Venting at 27500 ft. now. Still a mean un'.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Keebs said:


> you two show up next weekend at designated spot & I'll show/tell ya................ ok, 'nuff for me...........



I knew it, I knew there wasn't a WOW that could keep up with me!!! 

Night Shuggums..


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

all the storm is NORTH of troup co as far as I can tell. I can hear it but no rain here at all. 

T


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 3, 2012)

Seems to be calming down in a hurry around here, but they still got us under this tarnader watch until 5 AM. I'm waiting at least for the 600z convective outlook-maybe it won't have all those purty psychadelic colors and crosshatches and squiggles and ominous over my house like it has all day and all night long.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> There seems to be less lightning with it, does that mean it might be getting weaker?


 
It's just getting sneaky


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

throwback said:


> all the storm is north of troup co as far as i can tell. I can hear it but no rain here at all.
> 
> T


----------



## Jeff C. (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> all the storm is NORTH of troup co as far as I can tell. I can hear it but no rain here at all.
> 
> T



It's 20 miles to the west still in Alabama north of Lafayette, headed into Troup as we speak. Be ready.


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

well we're under a warning, or were. 

http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/dpp/new...or-Severe-Weather-Friday-Night-20120301-am-sd


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Here in my part of Lagrange nothing. Sirens just stopped. Confirmed tornado touch down in Al in Fredonia...HWY 431


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Jeff C. said:


> It's 20 miles to the west still in Alabama north of Lafayette, headed into Troup as we speak. Be ready.



I got my gun loaded in case it comes by. 

T


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Here in my part of Lagrange nothing. Sirens just stopped. Confirmed tornado touch down in Al in Fredonia...HWY 431



i saw where they were tracking one on weather.com in that area. 

T


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

Gonna be watching the radar on twc, watching this thread, and watching a movie on netflix all at the same time.

Starting to come down heavy here in Covington.  Wind is going...but not too crazy.


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

it must be awful in it up there. I'm halfway across the county or better and I can hear it like it's in my yard. 


T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> i saw where they were tracking one on weather.com in that area.
> 
> T



That cell is losing steam steadily. Now venting at 22,300 ft.


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> View attachment 653970





its bascially going straight over west point WMA. 

Nick will be so happy. 

T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> its bascially going straight over west point WMA.
> 
> Nick will be so happy.
> 
> T



Nick went to West point???


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Sirens just started again in Lagrange.. Still no wind or rain here in my yard... BTW this is HuntingLady74..lol headed towards Hillcrest Area folks in Lagrange in that area watch out...


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

sirens going wide open again. 

woodsmaned you hear them?

T


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 3, 2012)

_Wake up Hugh!!_


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Sirens just started again in Lagrange.. Still no wind or rain here in my yard... BTW this is HuntingLady74..lol headed towards Hillcrest Area folks in Lagrange in that area watch out...



Im in pine moutain. I can hear the storm down here REAL GOOD. 

T


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> it must be awful in it up there. I'm halfway across the county or better and I can hear it like it's in my yard.
> 
> 
> T



Heck i'm on the other side of the county also.. Over Off of Salem and Hamilton hid out on the priddy rd..lol


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Siren just stopped in Trap County..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Building back up..


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> Im in pine moutain. I can hear the storm down here REAL GOOD.
> 
> T



How you hearing it and i'm in between you and the storm and aint getting squat..lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> _Wake up Hugh!!_



What you talkin bout willis. I've been here. You're the one that went and took a beauty nap...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> How you hearing it and i'm in between you and the storm and aint getting squat..lol



Y'all quit postin so fast and look at my maps. It's tellin you exactly where it's going...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Building back up..
> 
> View attachment 653972



Hey Miguel..update that thang..lol..:} It's slow by 5 mins on times..


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> How you hearing it and i'm in between you and the storm and aint getting squat..lol





its done stopped now. Its gone into the black hole of hogansville. 


T


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all quit postin so fast and look at my maps. It's tellin you exactly where it's going...



well by god post faster. 

T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Hey Miguel..update that thang..lol..:} It's slow by 5 mins on times..



I can only give you what it's giving me.


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That cell is losing steam steadily. Now venting at 22,300 ft.


You talking about the one im worried about?


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Building back up..
> 
> View attachment 653972



... dangit.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can only give you what it's giving me.



Well sorry sweetie i was just telling ya where it had been already..btw it might get lost in the Black Hole of Hogansville...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Well sorry sweetie i was just telling ya where it had been already..btw it might get lost in the Black Hole of Hogansville...



Plus it takes me about 2.5 minutes to put a pic together to show you jacklegs...


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

dont worry looking at the map there's plenty more where this one came from. 


T


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Plus it takes me about 2.5 minutes to put a pic together to show you jacklegs...



we can't help it we're from troup county. 

T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Back down to 21k ft.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What you talkin bout willis. I've been here. You're the one that went and took a beauty nap...


No beauty naps here mostly just a waste of time for me!!

Went to supper in Milledgeville this evening, and killed the my first buck of the year with my wife's Expedition!!

Just getting caught up here, and thought you might need a wake up call!!


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Plus it takes me about 2.5 minutes to put a pic together to show you jacklegs...



No you didn't call little oh me a Jack Leg... I think i may be a jill Leg..lol...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> No beauty naps here mostly just a waste of time for me!!
> 
> Went to supper in Milledgeville this evening, and killed the my first buck of the year with my wife's Expedition!!
> 
> Just getting caught up here, and thought you might need a wake up call!!



I've always said that a high powered bullet ain't necessary. just one that travels 60 mph and is shaped like a car....


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> we can't help it we're from troup county.
> 
> T



Throwback get it right it is TRAP COUNTY...


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

if I stay up much later I'll have to start eatin. 

T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

This one's fallin apart boys and girls...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> if I stay up much later I'll have to start eatin.
> 
> T



Well i gotta finish this beer..ewwww My first ever.. not to bad once you get past the smell and the taste...


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This one's fallin apart boys and girls...
> 
> View attachment 653975



Woot.

Now what about that line back in Anniston/Oxford Al?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Well i gotta finish this beer..ewwww My first ever.. not to bad once you get past the smell and the taste...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

rjcruiser said:


> Woot.
> 
> Now what about that line back in Anniston/Oxford Al?



That won't be fallin apart, but nothing severe in it now, so that is good, maybe a good light show and some good rain.


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This one's fallin apart boys and girls...
> 
> View attachment 653975



Thank God.. Am i correct that we have 2 to 4 more hours of this?? Or id the whole thing crumbling?


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> No you didn't call little oh me a Jack Leg... I think i may be a jill Leg..lol...


Huntinlady74..........Do you realize that you are posting under your Hubby's account!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Huntinlady74..........Do you realize that you are posting under your Hubby's account!!



He wouldn't give her her password, so she had no choice...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


>



OH hush..lol...


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This one's fallin apart boys and girls...
> 
> View attachment 653975



we handled it for ya'll. 

again. 


T


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Huntinlady74..........Do you realize that you are posting under your Hubby's account!!



Yeah i know.. to much work to sign him and and type in all my stuffies...lol...besides he is always doing it to me.. :}


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That won't be fallin apart, but nothing severe in it now, so that is good, maybe a good light show and some good rain.



That is good news.  Maybe I can get some rest after all.  Now...I've got to figure if I'm going to stay up and finish this netflix movie.


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

Its flashin red again ...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He wouldn't give her her password, so she had no choice...



I knows my password and his...


----------



## Jeff C. (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> No beauty naps here mostly just a waste of time for me!!
> 
> Went to supper in Milledgeville this evening, and killed the my first buck of the year with my wife's Expedition!!
> 
> Just getting caught up here, and thought you might need a wake up call!!




Man, that sucks!!!


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> we handled it for ya'll.
> 
> again.
> 
> ...



Thats why it's called Trap County once it gets here it just don't leave...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> Its flashin red again ...



It's got gas. It'll die a slow death soon.....I hope.


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> Its flashin red again ...



what is?

T


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> No beauty naps here mostly just a waste of time for me!!
> 
> Went to supper in Milledgeville this evening, and killed the my first buck of the year with my wife's Expedition!!
> 
> Just getting caught up here, and thought you might need a wake up call!!



OK Being a woman..I gotta ask what was the first word out of your wifes mouth?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> OK Being a woman..I gotta ask what was the first word out of your wifes mouth?



I bet it wasn't Jackleg...


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's got gas. It'll die a slow death soon.....I hope.


Man i hope so ..


Throwback said:


> what is?
> 
> T



The storm that is moving my way from the west point area, flashing red means "tornatic vortex signature detected"


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet it wasn't Jackleg...



OH i know it wasn't...lol


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> Man i hope so ..
> 
> 
> The storm that is moving my way from the west point area, flashing red means "tornatic vortex signature detected"



it's just some wet gas..that's all...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Lightning struck a house in Woolsey / Forsyth Co.


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

slip said:


> Man i hope so ..
> 
> 
> The storm that is moving my way from the west point area, flashing red means "tornatic vortex signature detected"



what website you watching>

T


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

I'm here........... jus lettin ya know.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm here........... jus lettin ya know.


Pfffffffft. All of the fun is about over now...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm here........... jus lettin ya know.



Glad to know their's another lady here to help me keep these gells in line..lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> Glad to know their's another lady here to help me keep these gells in line..lol



Jill legs....


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 3, 2012)

WoodsmanEd said:


> OK Being a woman..I gotta ask what was the first word out of your wifes mouth?


Ohhh............Followed by a few expletives that can't be repeated here!!


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Jill legs....


HUsh


RUTTNBUCK said:


> Ohhh............Followed by a few expletives that can't be repeated here!!



Yup that's what i thought...lol


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

well it appears I survived another apocalypse. 


T


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Ohhh............Followed by a few expletives that can't be repeated here!!



Did she blame you since you were driving?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Alright kiddies. I'm callin it. 

1:07 am and the warnings are done. And so am I.

See you fine folks at some point tomorrow...


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Alright kiddies. I'm callin it.
> 
> 1:07 am and the warnings are done. And so am I.
> 
> See you fine folks at some point tomorrow...



That sounds GREAT... HAve a god night and thanks for the fun...lol...


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Alright kiddies. I'm callin it.
> 
> 1:07 am and the warnings are done. And so am I.
> 
> See you fine folks at some point tomorrow...



Thanks for the updates and expert opinions


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pfffffffft. All of the fun is about over now...



I always miss the fun


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 3, 2012)

rjcruiser said:


> Did she blame you since you were driving?


Naww it caught her  by surprise As much as it did me!!..........Dang buck had a suicide wish!!



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Alright kiddies. I'm callin it.
> 
> 1:07 am and the warnings are done. And so am I.
> 
> See you fine folks at some point tomorrow...


Later Hugh Get some sleep!!


----------



## slip (Mar 3, 2012)

Those of you around Athens might want to keep a eye on the radar.


----------



## Hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

2:09 and it's on top of your house Hugh......................


----------



## Hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

It's OK now MS, you can rest easy


----------



## Bruz (Mar 3, 2012)

It's rolling herE in Dacula.


----------



## jgriffi87 (Mar 3, 2012)

Rolling here in Winder.


----------



## rjcruiser (Mar 3, 2012)

rolling in Covington.  The trees are definitely blowing...rain coming down sideways...not too much lightening...but man, it is coming down.


----------



## Dutch (Mar 3, 2012)

Not a drop of rain here in Bonaire...just some wind. Looks like its all going north of us. 

All the warnings and watch's issued and it turned into another non-event. I guess the weather people have to cover thier butts.

If I knew that it wasn't going to storm I'd planned on going fishing.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

It ain`t over down here. They are sayin` a tornado is just south of Albany right now, headed east.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Dutch said:


> Not a drop of rain here in Bonaire...just some wind. Looks like its all going north of us.
> 
> All the warnings and watch's issued and it turned into another non-event. I guess the weather people have to cover thier butts.
> 
> If I knew that it wasn't going to storm I'd planned on going fishing.


I'm certainly not going to try and cover their butts for them, and maybe it's my lack of sleep so forgive my grumpiness, but I would suggest sitting back and evaluating weather patterns, how they work and move prior to downing and poor mouthing like that. This is one monster front, it's not moving fast, and just because you didn't get your house blown off of its foundation doesn't mean the rain isn't coming. 

Relax and give it a few, it'll get there, if it hasn't already.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> It ain`t over down here. They are sayin` a tornado is just south of Albany right now, headed east.



It's lost it's steam now Nick, but that sure is a lively way to start the mornin huh??


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's lost it's steam now Nick, but that sure is a lively way to start the mornin huh??





Sure is. We`ve got 2 and 9/10ths so far. It`s slacked off. Just stayin` on the alert and hopin` everybody else is okay.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Mar 3, 2012)

Nothing here in Washington county so far .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Dutch said:


> Not a drop of rain here in Bonaire...just some wind. Looks like its all going north of us.
> 
> All the warnings and watch's issued and it turned into another non-event. I guess the weather people have to cover thier butts.
> 
> If I knew that it wasn't going to storm I'd planned on going fishing.



Dutch, you might wanna keep an eye on this one, it's been showing rotation off an on for a good hour or so.


----------



## Hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

Hope everyone got through the P M hours ok. Got a little rough in 30680, LOTS of rain and still coming down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Nothing here in Washington county so far .



Patience mule...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Man y'all got some rough little cells streamin in from Fl. down there Nic. Did it rock and roll a little bit last night, I mean this morning?


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 3, 2012)

Some of the damage in Paulding County
http://www.wsbtv.com/gallery/news/local/tornado-damage-aerial-tour/gdzC/#1332984


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Jeff Raines said:


> Some of the damage in Paulding County
> http://www.wsbtv.com/gallery/news/local/tornado-damage-aerial-tour/gdzC/#1332984



Thanks Jeff. I sure hate to see the results of this kind of weather. I saw the pictures of Marysville Indiana this morning, heartbreaking is all I can say. Prayers go out to all of those everywhere that were effected by this stuff. 

You folks in SOWEGA keep an ear out, your still in a good risk area and I can't imagine that daytime heating is going to do anything to make it better.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Alrighty, just a note before we do another day of this stuff, and I do appreciate all of the reports, pictures, links etc. But they need to go over here;

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=670203

So we don't confuse folks still in active weather areas trying to get information..

Thanks y'all.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man y'all got some rough little cells streamin in from Fl. down there Nic. Did it rock and roll a little bit last night, I mean this morning?





It was fairly rough but not like what ya`ll got up there, I don`t think. Things are startin` to fire up here now though, all over Sowega.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

All the birds are either settin` low to the ground, or flyin` east.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Are bein flung east by that wind down south of you. Looks like another funnel reported around Vada, in Decatur county?


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Are bein flung east by that wind down south of you. Looks like another funnel reported around Vada, in Decatur county?





That`s what the NWS is sayin`. Plus Thomas, and Mitchell Counties are under the gun.

I`m watchin` this through WALB. Your sources are much better, IMO.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> That`s what the NWS is sayin`. Plus Thomas, and Mitchell Counties are under the gun.
> 
> I`m watchin` this through WALB. Your sources are much better, IMO.



That cell that dropped a funnel is dying quick, and quite frankly, I'm suspect of the folks that are reporting this stuff. Looking at the characteristics of the cloud, and switching to storm reflectivity mode, it's real hard to believe they aren't just seeing a rain or hail shaft and thinking it's a funnel.

But hey, I'm not down there, and they are, so we have to trust their ground truth and prepare from there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Hey Nic, they are saying trees and power lines down in Baker County, at Hoggards Mill.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Looks like that Vada cell did bounce a tornado down for just a brief second, long enough to cause some damage. This seems to be the MO of those cells down there, they're not looking that scary and then BAM, they'll spin up, drop one, and then move on and fall apart.

It's gonna make it real difficult for folks to take cover from that kind of activity.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Yea, from all those years of workin` this entire area, I know where all those transmission lines are, and cringe when they show radar of bad weather on them. Those Hi-Line boys are gonna be earnin` their pay for a while.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Now their sayin` one just touched down over in Keeb`s neck of the world.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Now their sayin` one just touched down over in Keeb`s neck of the world.



Right there around Pinetta, Ocilla area. These cells are tough to read, and don't really throw a rotation signature out. Y'all just need to crawl in a hole and stay there till all of this weather is gone.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Right there around Pinetta, Ocilla area. These cells are tough to read, and don't really throw a rotation signature out. Y'all just need to crawl in a hole and stay there till all of this weather is gone.



You got that right. I sent her a text. Ain`t heard back yet. Knowin` her, she`s probably out on the porch throwin` rocks at robins and sparrows.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Hey Nic!!! You got a little shower tryin to sneak up on you from over in Sasser...

Lord at this point we're gonna have to call every cloud we see. These are sneaky little devils.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey Nic!!! You got a little shower tryin to sneak up on you from over in Sasser...
> 
> Lord at this point we're gonna have to call every cloud we see. These are sneaky little devils.




Thanks! Lookin` back over that way, I can see it gettin` dark.

You got time to send Keebs a text too? I still haven`t heard back from her.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Thanks! Lookin` back over that way, I can see it gettin` dark.
> 
> You got time to send Keebs a text too? I still haven`t heard back from her.



That one was well south of her, but I'll gladly wake her up.

I found the problem, the crossover winds down there aren't significant enough to give me a good reading on these cells. Plus I think Tallahassee operates their radar at a lower angle than PTC and Warner Robbins (which is down for another month to get their dual pole dopplar installed)


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Just heard back from her, so they are okay so far.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

I've got 10 radar products to use and am trying to find one that will give me the returns I need to pick these bad cells up before they surprise y'all...


----------



## SGADawg (Mar 3, 2012)

Weather Channel is reporting a cell moving from Ambrose to Broxton area now .  Just put out a severe tstorm warning.  This is just a couple miles north of us, 10-15 miles from Douglas, Ga.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

It's bad when even the sheriff's office calls to check on ya!
Thanks for the heads up, been laying in the bed listening/dozing while it thundered until that last phone call, one DID touch down in Irwinville headed toward Fitzgerald, but I haven't seen nutting yet, may have to go for a ride..........


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've got 10 radar products to use and am trying to find one that will give me the returns I need to pick these bad cells up before they surprise y'all...



This stuff down here is unreal. They just keep poppin` up. Never seen anything like it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

I got ahold of bigox to put another set of eyes on this, maybe gonna have to use my ipad and radarscope so I can use the Valdosta radar site in storm velocity mode. It seems to be showing the couplets where they exist.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Are we gonna be dealin` with this all day? Radar shows that long thin line of bad weather stretchin` all the back to Louisana.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Are we gonna be dealin` with this all day? Radar shows that long thin line of bad weather stretchin` all the back to Louisana.



It's gonna be a while, that's for sure.

Got the ipad running and that is a bad one just north of Douglas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

GAWD this tough. Looks like a couplet trying to form on a cell approaching Moultrie.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Got another couplet cell with rotation heading towards Thomasville off of the Fl. state line.


----------



## maker4life (Mar 3, 2012)

Hope havana dude is alright . They just had some strong rotation go through there , just south of me . No report yet of  a touchdown but they seem to be fairly certain it about .


----------



## maker4life (Mar 3, 2012)

And another coming behind it heading more my way .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Looks like a good cell crossing Kolomoki Park heading towards Albany.


----------



## rhbama3 (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like a good cell crossing Kolomoki Park heading towards Albany.



Yep, i'm hearing thunder in the distance and it just started raining again.
Hugh, thanks a lot for your insight and updates.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

It appears that the railroad track is gonna be through Quincy and Thomasville. They just keep forming back in Florida and training that direction.


----------



## maker4life (Mar 3, 2012)

Crazy ! These storms are training  like the Valentines Day storms from 2000 that caused so much wide spread damage .


----------



## maker4life (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It appears that the railroad track is gonna be through Quincy and Thomasville. They just keep forming back in Florida and training that direction.



Unfortunately that's right through my backyard .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Looks like another good little cell about to go through Vada


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

That one that went by Douglas is still potent and heading towards Alma and Jesup.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

STRONG rumbling thunder going on here at Dulieville, clouds are rolling!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

I keep watching that one just east of Tifton heading towards Douglas. It has a TON of lightning in it but I'm not seeing a clear couplet in it yet.


----------



## DDD (Mar 3, 2012)

Bruz said:


> It's rolling herE in Dacula.



I rolled out of bed, fired up the computer, I was not impressed, so I went back to bed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

That one in Vada hit hard earlier this morning. Looks like a farm home, out buildings and their equipment and pivots were tore up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Someone tell Turtlebug to quit yapping and worrying about her hair frizzin and pay attention.


----------



## maker4life (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That one in Vada hit hard earlier this morning. Looks like a farm home, out buildings and their equipment and pivots were tore up.



A friend of mine watched it go through the field behind her house .


----------



## turtlebug (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Someone tell Turtlebug to quit yapping and worrying about her hair frizzin and pay attention.
> 
> View attachment 653990



Yeah, I'm fixin to get hit pretty hard.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Looks like a lot of rain and lightning headed for Willacoochie too.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Anyone got Stalker's phone #???  This is headed his way!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

This ones got a bead on Thomasville.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Hard rain here again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Bad cell right on top of Douglas again...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Commercial building and powerlines down from the last one that went just north of Douglas


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Wonder if them lineman need any help about now?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Wonder if them lineman need any help about now?



I bet they're hating life right now.


----------



## turtlebug (Mar 3, 2012)

Lots of thunder and now it's eerily quiet. 

I hate waiting this mess out. 

They just extending the Tornado Warning into Lowndes and the time until 11:44.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

That cell that did damage in Douglas earlier is moving north of Jesup towards Hinesville / Ft. Stewart.


----------



## turtlebug (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> View attachment 653994





Oh yeah, Hwy 94 and 133 are the same road.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

That new cell coming out of Quincy is a real booger...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Keebs and Nick, Rob, I think y'all are good unless more stuff fires up way back in Bama.

Cairo, Thomasville, Valdosta......not so much, they have a long way to go.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

hahira is next.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Keebs and Nick, Rob, I think y'all are good unless more stuff fires up way back in Bama.
> 
> Cairo, Thomasville, Valdosta......not so much, they have a long way to go.





Yea, they`re poppin` up down there faster than they can report em. Unreal.

I wonder if our cabin has a cypress or longleaf through it.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

just texted with Stalker, he's ok & fixing to join us!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Yea, they`re poppin` up down there faster than they can report em. Unreal.
> 
> I wonder if our cabin has a cypress or longleaf through it.



After the EF-4 in Alabama this past april my bro-n-law sent me a picture of a golf tee in the side of the front tire of a car.


----------



## turtlebug (Mar 3, 2012)

Okay I pinned me down for ya. I'm somwhere under the green star.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

turtlebug said:


> Okay I pinned me down for ya. I'm somwhere under the green star.



Couldn't have used a pink heart huh?


----------



## turtlebug (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Couldn't have used a pink heart huh?



It didn't show up as good against all the danged red and orange all over your map.    


But yes, I did try.  



Still no rain. Wind picking up though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

They have wind damage out of that new cell coming out of Quincy..


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Not so bad here right now, but the cabin and Seminole look like they are gettin` thumped hard.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

I hate to do this to my friends, but I have to be productive around the house here on a few projects.

Y'all take care down there PLEASE, you still have a couple more hours of this stuff streaming out of Florida.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hate to do this to my friends, but I have to be productive around the house here on a few projects.
> 
> Y'all take care down there PLEASE, you still have a couple more hours of this stuff streaming out of Florida.


 You got us up & watching! THanks!!!!!!!!!


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hate to do this to my friends, but I have to be productive around the house here on a few projects.
> 
> Y'all take care down there PLEASE, you still have a couple more hours of this stuff streaming out of Florida.


----------



## Altamaha Stalker (Mar 3, 2012)

Keebs said:


> just texted with Stalker, he's ok & fixing to join us!






Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hate to do this to my friends, but I have to be productive around the house here on a few projects.
> 
> Y'all take care down there PLEASE, you still have a couple more hours of this stuff streaming out of Florida.



Sure, leave when I show up....

Not too bad here, slow steady rain, and some lightning. It seems like 95% of the time the worst weather goes to the northwest of me. Hope it does today


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Mar 3, 2012)

It's a beautiful day after such a wicked night. Hope all ya'll down south are safe today.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Good rain here now, and heavy thunder and lightnin`. 5 plus inches of rain so far.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Good rain here now, and heavy thunder and lightnin`. 5 plus inches of rain so far.


 good steady rain here and I can tell the temps have started dropping!


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Good rain here now, and heavy thunder and lightnin`. 5 plus inches of rain so far.



Wow....we only had 3 inches.
Allatoona has risen almost a foot in 24 hours


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

The way they`re talkin`, this is gonna continue on till midnight or so too.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Mar 3, 2012)

Still not a drop here ???


----------



## Throwback (Mar 3, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Still not a drop here ???



yeah but ya'll can hunt deer over bait and with dogs so it's a wash. 



T


----------



## rhbama3 (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> The way they`re talkin`, this is gonna continue on till midnight or so too.



We are right in the middle of the rain. it's moving from the gulf northeast and it loooks like its gonna be here for awhile. 
expand the radar and you'll see what i'm talking about:
http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;q=Leesburg,+GA,+31763,+USA


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

rhbama3 said:


> We are right in the middle of the rain. it's moving from the gulf northeast and it loooks like its gonna be here for awhile.
> expand the radar and you'll see what i'm talking about:
> http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;q=Leesburg,+GA,+31763,+USA





We need a bigger boat!


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> yeah but ya'll can hunt deer over bait and with dogs so it's a wash.
> 
> 
> 
> T


Bazinga


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Mar 3, 2012)

Throwback said:


> yeah but ya'll can hunt deer over bait and with dogs so it's a wash.
> 
> 
> 
> T






Pretty fair swap wouldn't ya say ??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

I trust everyone is duckin and dodgin the stuff down there. Looks like Troy and Yara have been having a pretty lively time over on their side of the state. My phone has been blowing up with sts and tornado warnings for y'alls end of the state.

We need to recruit more weather geeks if this is what the spring is going to be like...


----------



## Keebs (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I trust everyone is duckin and dodgin the stuff down there. Looks like Troy and Yara have been having a pretty lively time over on their side of the state. My phone has been blowing up with sts and tornado warnings for y'alls end of the state.
> 
> We need to recruit more weather geeks if this is what the spring is going to be like...


 I saw where she was headed to the closet to hunker down!


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 3, 2012)

Just a light rain here now.


----------



## Altamaha Stalker (Mar 3, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Just a light rain here now.



Same here. Distant thunder rumblings. Kind of peaceful. I'm already getting cabin fever though!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2012)

Altamaha Stalker said:


> Same here. Distant thunder rumblings. Kind of peaceful. I'm already getting cabin fever though!



Grab you a bar of soap and get out in it. It couldn't hurt you none...


----------



## crackerdave (Mar 3, 2012)

So far,I've only heard of one death in Georgia.My prayers and sympathy go out to everybody affected by this monster of a storm,and for all the work that it's gonna take to rebuild.Pray for the linemen and the chainsaw crews,too.

At around 1 a.m. this morning,there was a tornado _warning_ for Troup county,where I live.It expired after 15 minutes,but I stayed up all night,on the porch watching toward the west and praying that God would spare us one more time.

Thanks again,Hugh,Lee,and DDD! Y'all make me proud to be a part of this forum.


----------



## SGADawg (Mar 3, 2012)

We made out fine just north of Douglas, still raining, but all we had was rain, some lightning and moderate wind.  Broxton, Ga, about 10 miles away had some damage.

I just saw on FB that there were trees down, some trailers overturned and possible injuries and damage to the hospital in Lakeland, Ga on the Valdosta highway.


----------



## Altamaha Stalker (Mar 3, 2012)

1.78 inches at the weather station now. A little increase in winds at times, but still pretty decent at The Big Pine Tree.


----------



## Altamaha Stalker (Mar 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Grab you a bar of soap and get out in it. It couldn't hurt you none...



Already did that....  Don't you have some weather maps to go look at or something?


----------



## BriarPatch99 (Mar 4, 2012)

Poured 4.1 inches out of the gauge today ( Friday thur Sunday)... 

Creeks running for the first time in a long time....


----------



## SGADawg (Mar 4, 2012)

Briar Patch, we had 3.5" just north of Douglas.  I talked to 2 different folks from south of Douglas that said they had 5.5".  We were all thankful for every drop.  My pond is coming back up pretty fast.  We've had about 7" in the last 2 weeks, I think that's more than we had in the last 2 years.


----------



## GA DAWG (Mar 15, 2012)

Hail coming down in north forsyth co just a few min ago. Pea sized.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2012)

Yep, I bet Wade Chandler got a bit of hail when this one passed over. This is a late spring early summer pattern we are in. Kind of disconcerting considering we haven't even entered Tornado season yet.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 15, 2012)

Pea size hail at my house.Bout 8 miles north of Dallas.

Not 5 mins after I got the corn,squash and okra planted.These were started in the house.


----------



## StriperAddict (Mar 15, 2012)

Nice thunder with this one outside the office the past 20+ min, and I'm going to be driving in it going east out of Alphy' all the way home!


----------



## Jeff Raines (Mar 15, 2012)

...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2012)

got a real good one just west of Yorkville. 1.5" hail...


----------



## GA DAWG (Mar 15, 2012)

These things gonna pop up all night? I need to go coon huntin but not in a hail storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> These things gonna pop up all night? I need to go coon huntin but not in a hail storm.



I'm betting as the sun goes down so will the storms.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Mar 16, 2012)

No hail here at the Inn yesterday, but guests hiking up got some between here and the Falls.
Nice storm just after 11 last night.  Lightning popped real close a couple of times.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Mar 16, 2012)

Lots and lots of lightning, heavy heavy rain, and bb sized hail here in Bonaire GA!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 16, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> Lots and lots of lightning, heavy heavy rain, and bb sized hail here in Bonaire GA!!



Lucky dog. I can't buy a good thunderstorm...


----------



## deerslayer357 (Mar 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lucky dog. I can't buy a good thunderstorm...



Well one rolled through the East side of Athens about an hour ago....

We were at walmart and had buggies blowing across the parking lot, heavy rain, and bb sized hail.  Some good lightning and thunder, then in 20 minutes or so it was over.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Mar 17, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lucky dog. I can't buy a good thunderstorm...



MC, we got pounded last night!  I saw the clouds earlier in the day but didn't think it was heading this way!  It was unreal!

We got another good rain shower earlier this afternoon.


----------



## crackerdave (Mar 17, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lucky dog. I can't buy a good thunderstorm...



Got a good 'un I'll sell you at a low,low price!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 18, 2012)

After a couple of weeks of getting pounded by CME's, is the pattern bound to change, as has proven historically after such solar events?

While I don't think we'll get a late spring snow, nothing is out of the question after the last volley of CME's we just had. We could just as well get a volley of really bad storms followed up by a cold snap. Anything is possible at this point in the game.

Just ask Arizona, and if this was in their forecast two weeks ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/18/us/win...orm/index.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 18, 2012)

The 10 deadly sins of a professional weather forecaster.

Great article by James Spann;

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=58352


----------



## Smokepoler (Mar 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> After a couple of weeks of getting pounded by CME's, is the pattern bound to change, as has proven historically after such solar events?
> 
> 
> 
> Question: What is the historical pattern?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 19, 2012)

Smokepoler said:


> Miguel Cervantes said:
> 
> 
> > After a couple of weeks of getting pounded by CME's, is the pattern bound to change, as has proven historically after such solar events?
> ...


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Smokepoler said:
> 
> 
> > Over the last couple of years is the period I have been comparing them and it has ranged between 10 to 15 days or so. There isn't a set number of hours or days, but it has definitely had influences on the NAO, AO and PAO in a manner that has effected the long range climatology.
> ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 19, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> Miguel Cervantes said:
> 
> 
> > BRING ON A BLIZZARD!!!! im sick of hot weather already
> ...


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> blood on the ground said:
> 
> 
> > Better get used to it. I don't see any blizzards on the horizon. Swirly things, yes, blizzards, no.
> ...


----------



## DDD (Mar 19, 2012)

I tell you what I see in May and June.... 

Everyone making up for those cheap heating bills in the form of A/C bills.  Lord have mercy...

Cue up the cover band... gonna sing about a HEAT WAVE...


----------



## crackerdave (Mar 20, 2012)

There's an awful-lookin' wad of weather a few days west of us - I sure hope it fizzles out ,if it's headed here!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2012)

Looks like Friday will be our best shot at some showers, but not much more, and not much in the way of rain, as it stands now.


----------



## DDD (Mar 21, 2012)

Torcon Scale or F scale for tornados...

Now we have the cow scale...

M0 Tornado- Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed 
M1 Tornado- Cows are tipped over and can't get up 
M2 Tornado- Cows begin rolling with the wind 
M3 Tornado- Cows tumble and bounce 
M4 Tornado- Cows are AIRBORN 
M5 Tornado- S T E A K ! ! !


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 21, 2012)

DDD said:


> Torcon Scale or F scale for tornados...
> 
> Now we have the cow scale...
> 
> ...



 MMMMMMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 21, 2012)

I guess this one was an M0


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 22, 2012)

Well this is a nice change. We went from 50% chance of rain tomorrow to an 80% chance and they ramped up the probabilistic percentages for our area also.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 23, 2012)

some nice rain over night in paulding co. it sure looked good on the GMC this mornin..lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2012)

So much for the NWS 80% projection, I should have stuck with my first 40% forecast that I knew was more probable instead of listening to the idjits.

Not a drop here, at all. Just thick yellow powder everywhere...


----------



## slip (Mar 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So much for the NWS 80% projection, I should have stuck with my first 40% forecast that I knew was more probable instead of listening to the idjits.
> 
> Not a drop here, at all. Just thick yellow powder everywhere...



We got about 3 drops here. It was sad.


----------



## Keebs (Mar 23, 2012)

Got goooood wet ground here at Dulieville!


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 23, 2012)

It literally rained all yesterday afternoon and better part of the morning here in NW Coweta............


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 26, 2012)

alright  I did the ultimate rain dance yesterday.....washed and waxed the GMC.. we might even get an April snow out of the deal....


----------



## grunt0331 (Apr 3, 2012)

How are we looking at the end of this week?  I keep seeing above 50% chances for storms Thursday and Friday.

I'm supposed to take off those days to turkey hunt.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2012)

grunt0331 said:


> How are we looking at the end of this week?  I keep seeing above 50% chances for storms Thursday and Friday.
> 
> I'm supposed to take off those days to turkey hunt.



Yep, there's a chance. I reckon we'll find out when we get to the end of the week.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 3, 2012)

Whoa, the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area 12 Tornado outbreak reported on the Drudge Report looks serious.  Hope that bad dangerous weather is not headed this was.



http://www.drudgereport.com/ 


*EMERGENCY IN DALLAS
AIRPORT IN STRIKE ZONE

TORNADO SWARM: TEXAS... DEVELOPING...

Supercell...

LIVE...

UPDATES...

RADAR...

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

'BIGGEST THREAT IN YEARS'...* 








































Tornado Sucks Up Tractor Trailers In Dallas Texas 4-3-2012 Raw 

 

Apr 3, 2012 

Description:  

Tornadoe Sucks Up Tractor Trailers In Dallas Texas 4-3-2012 Raw Footage Tornadoes ripped through the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area Tuesday afternoon, launching tractor-trailers into the air as if they were children's toys. As a tornado spun through an industrial area in Lancaster, Texas, about 15 miles south of Dallas, it wreaked havoc on a fleet of trucks, perilously tossing them dozens of feet in the air.

Severe storms brought golf-ball-sized hail and led to the touchdown of at least two tornadoes in the region. The skies darkened to a night-like level as the storms rushed in. A number of injuries were reported and homes damaged in the heavily-populated suburbs south of Dallas and Fort Worth. 



Tornadoes On the Ground In Dallas Texas 4-3-12 Raw Footage

 

Apr 3, 2012


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Whoa, the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area Tornado outbreak reported on the Drudge Report looks serious.  Hope that bad dangerous weather is not headed this way



Well, it has been about 3 weeks since our rash CME's, so we're due for a dramatic bout of some sort of weather.


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 3, 2012)

Well, its here Miguel!  pouring rain, lightening and thunder!!!

RAIN! YAY!!!! Now maybe the lettuce will grow some more, nom nom nom!


----------



## shakey gizzard (Apr 3, 2012)

If I wash my truck will it rain?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Well, its here Miguel!  pouring rain, lightening and thunder!!!
> 
> RAIN! YAY!!!! Now maybe the lettuce will grow some more, nom nom nom!


Wish you'd share a little bit down this way


shakey gizzard said:


> If I wash my truck will it rain?


Absolutely


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2012)

For the last hour, we`ve been gettin` the hardest rain I`ve seen is a long time.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, it has been about 3 weeks since our rash CME's, so we're due for a dramatic bout of some sort of weather.



Thanks.  I learned a new TLA.  

Kinda tough for me to decide when to plant grass on a 45 degree slanting hill with intense weather systems possibly approaching.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Apr 3, 2012)

Heavy thunder rolling in. I hate night time storms.


----------



## Shane Dockery (Apr 5, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Whoa, the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area 12 Tornado outbreak reported on the Drudge Report looks serious.  Hope that bad dangerous weather is not headed this was.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Crazy stuff the other day.  My whole family lives northeast of Dallas.  Thank goodness none of them were in the path of these tornadoes.  

Hey Miguel,
Do you know what F scale they classified any of those tornadoes? Several looked pretty hefty.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

Shane Dockery said:


> Crazy stuff the other day.  My whole family lives northeast of Dallas.  Thank goodness none of them were in the path of these tornadoes.
> 
> Hey Miguel,
> Do you know what F scale they classified any of those tornadoes? Several looked pretty hefty.



It will take the NWS a couple of days to assess all areas effected to come up with an EF rating for each funnel.


----------



## Shane Dockery (Apr 5, 2012)

Figured it would, just didn't know if they classified a couple yet.  Thanks for the reply!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

Here is the Johnson County preliminary survey.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=april32012johnsoncounty


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

Let's talk about today;

My first pass is to look at the NWS Convective Outlook maps for today. I have yet to go to the GFS models to look at the CAPE / LI values, but on the surface the NWS maps look a bit contradictory and don't place a high enough value on Northern Al & GA. I will follow up the next post with the GFS maps to explain why they are correct, or why I think they might be missing something.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

Oh the joys of a mid summer pattern in the midst of spring.. On the surface the NWS maps would be correct, however I think they err on the side of caution for daytime heating and convection for Western and Eastern Ms. and North Al & Ga for later this afternoon. Particularly for the period between 6pm to 10pm this evening. 

I hate night time severe weather, so hopefully any storms we get will be run of the mill thunderstorms with a little hail and wind, however, later runs on CAPE / LI and VV maps show the potential for some more severe storms capable of meso activity.

I guess now we wait and see.


----------



## david w. (Apr 5, 2012)

Thanks for tha update hugh.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

What happened; Did RHBama go turkey hunting or fishing this afternoon? My SOWEGA friends are about to get some water.


----------



## GA DAWG (Apr 5, 2012)

Is it gonna do anything up here? Looks like everything has fell apart.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> Is it gonna do anything up here? Looks like everything has fell apart.



I'm watching the stuff come across N. Al. now. Falling apart and clearing up late in the day isn't always a good thing. It can fire them up pretty good.


----------



## rhbama3 (Apr 5, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What happened; Did RHBama go turkey hunting or fishing this afternoon? My SOWEGA friends are about to get some water.
> 
> View attachment 660400



That we did, Hugh.
Fair amount of lightning and a 15 minute shower. 
Oh, and i was practicing my turkey calls on the front porch. I guess that brought it on.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

rhbama3 said:


> That we did, Hugh.
> Fair amount of lightning and a 15 minute shower.
> Oh, and i was practicing my turkey calls on the front porch. I guess that brought it on.



Good thing you hadn't just watered your lawn and washed and waxed your truck. It would have been a monsoon..


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 5, 2012)

Lots of rain and hail up this way- seen a couple hailstorms this afternoon that looked like it had snowed for awhile. Nothing really big though, thankfully-pea to marble-sized hail.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Lots of rain and hail up this way- seen a couple hailstorms this afternoon that looked like it had snowed for awhile. Nothing really big though, thankfully-pea to marble-sized hail.



Yeah, it's piling up in N. Al. right now as well.


----------



## Jeff C. (Apr 5, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Good thing you hadn't just watered your lawn and washed and waxed your truck. It would have been a monsoon..



That would be me...or planted some grass seed


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 5, 2012)

Is this rain gonna end up in N GA at all?


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 6, 2012)

Man..its dark in heard co. Right now! No rain just dark skies with a fair amount of wind. Im about 2 miles from the truck so I don't need any sparky sparky...lol


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 6, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Is this rain gonna end up in N GA at all?



We got some last night  And now its downright COLD compared to the daytime weather we had been having


----------



## Keebs (Apr 6, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> We got some last night  And now its downright COLD compared to the daytime weather we had been having


We got a "little" rain and yeah, it's a lot cooler here too, but LOVING it, may have to go home & build a bon fire............ wanna join?


----------



## boneboy96 (Apr 6, 2012)

Bon fire sounds good.  I have lots of wood I need to burn.


----------



## Keebs (Apr 6, 2012)

boneboy96 said:


> Bon fire sounds good.  I have lots of wood I need to burn.


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 6, 2012)

Keebs said:


> We got a "little" rain and yeah, it's a lot cooler here too, but LOVING it, may have to go home & build a bon fire............ wanna join?



TEASE!! 

I am NOT loving this   I need 70deg days, darnit, I'm cold!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 6, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> TEASE!!
> 
> I am NOT loving this   I need 70deg days, darnit, I'm cold!!



Shush it wimp. This temperature is perfect...


----------



## Keebs (Apr 6, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> TEASE!!
> 
> I am NOT loving this   I need 70deg days, darnit, I'm cold!!


 you know I love my nippy weather & rainy days!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Shush it wimp. This temperature is perfect...


 Let's go see her & have a group hug to keep her warm..........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 6, 2012)

Keebs said:


> you know I love my nippy weather & rainy days!
> 
> Let's go see her & have a group hug to keep her warm..........



Swing on by and pick me up..


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 6, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Shush it wimp. This temperature is perfect...



You'll pay for that    Dang desk jockey 



I might hafta start a fire tonight.. sheesh, its chilly!!


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 6, 2012)

Keebs said:


> you know I love my nippy weather & rainy days!
> 
> Let's go see her & have a group hug to keep her warm..........



Bring beer!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 8, 2012)

My first exposure to the aftermath of an F5, 14 years ago today.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 8, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My first exposure to the aftermath of an F5, 14 years ago today.




 I remember that day well also. Amazing devastation.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 13, 2012)

y'all say a prayer for the folks in plains to the mid south! it looks like the weather up that way is about to take a turn for the worst. per a post i seen on another forum Dr. Greg Forbes has south central Kansas and parts of Oklahoma at extremely high chance of tornado outbreak.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 13, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> y'all say a prayer for the folks in plains to the mid south! it looks like the weather up that way is about to take a turn for the worst. per a post i seen on another forum Dr. Greg Forbes has south central Kansas and parts of Oklahoma at extremely high chance of tornado outbreak.



Yep, heard about it on the weather news reports including radio, TV, & the Drudge Report ("STORM WEEKEND: Life-Threatening Tornado Outbreak Saturday...") about potential bad storms from Texas, across Oklahoma, Kansas, on to Nebraska this weekend.  



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/large-dangerous-plains-tornado/64003 

Life-Threatening Tornado Outbreak This Weekend 

Apr 13, 2012 




























































http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57414091/at-least-3-possible-tornadoes-near-okla-city/ 

At least 3 possible tornadoes near Okla. City 

April 14, 2012  









http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-04-14-11-12-23 

Severe US Weather: Why this warning is different 

Apr 14  


WHY THIS IS UNIQUE: This marks the *second time* in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center has issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME: The first high-risk warning more than a day early came in April 2006, when *nearly 100 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S.* In all, a dozen people died and more than 1,000 homes were damaged in Tennessee. 

WHAT TO EXPECT: The *worst conditions are projected to hit late Saturday afternoon between Oklahoma City and Salina, Kan.* Other areas too could see severe storms with *baseball-sized hail* and *winds of up to 70 mph*. The warning includes pats of Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 14, 2012)

Watching videos, radars and pics from the mid-west and man, they're gettin hammered.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 14, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Watching videos, radars and pics from the mid-west and man, they're gettin hammered.



Yeah, it don't look good for folks out that way tonight. I've got a sister in St. Louis, hope some of this stuff mellows out a little bit before it gets there tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 14, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Yeah, it don't look good for folks out that way tonight. I've got a sister in St. Louis, hope some of this stuff mellows out a little bit before it gets there tomorrow.



This one definitely on the ground. It has a good debris ball.
I drew a circle around the rotation and another one around the debris ball with a note.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 14, 2012)

If you have friends in Wichita Ks and points sw you may want to tell them to find a hole and get in it. That's a nasty cell that just isn't letting up.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 14, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you have friends in Wichita Ks and points sw you may want to tell them to find a hole and get in it. That's a nasty cell that just isn't letting up.




Ive been watching them on chaser tv and man they got hammered south of wichita. Not good stuff out there and under high risk.
Praying for them out there!


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 16, 2012)

MC,
With all the storms in the mid-west approaching our area do you see any cause for concern  for us???
The talking heads say no, but I want the authorities answer...........


----------



## SnowHunter (Apr 16, 2012)

Please tell me the predicted rainfall for the next couple days will actually get here.

As much as I hate the muck, I know theres plenty of gardeners, farmers and cattlemen out there who desperately need some rain, us included.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 16, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> MC,
> With all the storms in the mid-west approaching our area do you see any cause for concern  for us???
> The talking heads say no, but I want the authorities answer...........



Not really, between an extremely stable air mass over head and cold air damming I don't see any cause for concern at this point.



SnowHunter said:


> Please tell me the predicted rainfall for the next couple days will actually get here.
> 
> As much as I hate the muck, I know theres plenty of gardeners, farmers and cattlemen out there who desperately need some rain, us included.



We need it bad, but I don't see a ton of it heading our way, unfortunately. Maybe later towards the end of the month. Not to mention another chance at a frost.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not really, between an extremely stable air mass over head and cold air damming I don't see any cause for concern at this point.
> 
> 
> 
> We need it bad, but I don't see a ton of it heading our way, unfortunately. Maybe later towards the end of the month. Not to mention another chance at a frost.



as much as i love cold/cool weather its toooo late in the game for frost! you can keep mine and give me 60f for the low and tmayter blooms.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 16, 2012)

Shocking that the central U.S. in the Great Plains & Midwest had 120 tornados.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Apr 16, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Shocking that the central U.S. in the Great Plains & Midwest had 120 tornados.



The scour'n pad is getting bigger!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 16, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> as much as i love cold/cool weather its toooo late in the game for frost! you can keep mine and give me 60f for the low and tmayter blooms.



I remember a good many years ago waking up to a few inches of snow on the ground up above Dahlonega, the first weekend in May.



BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Shocking that the central U.S. in the Great Plains & Midwest had 120 tornados.



The report I heard said 75 confirmed. You gotta link to that report? I haven't had a chance to dig up data yet.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Apr 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I remember a good many years ago waking up to a few inches of snow on the ground up above Dahlonega, the first weekend in May.
> 
> 
> 
> The report I heard said 75 confirmed. You gotta link to that report? I haven't had a chance to dig up data yet.



Nightly news is claim'n 130!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 16, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Nightly news is claim'n 130!



I think I'll wait on the official report from Norman OK. 

There were 150 claimed sightings, but thus far only 24 confirmed tornado's that did damage. When the NWS visits all sights relative to the cells on their maps then we'll get positive and accurate information.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The report I heard said 75 confirmed. You gotta link to that report? I haven't had a chance to dig up data yet.



I have not seen any official confirmed tornado totals.  

Sorry, I was only referring to the most common news reports I've heard & seen lately for the tornado outbreak Saturday that I had checked with a few web searches before making my post.  

Good job clarifying tornado claims.  I look forward to the official confirmation reports.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 16, 2012)

Here's a good collection of photo's from yesterday.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/terr...alflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=buzzfeed


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 16, 2012)

This does not look official so I would still wait for NOAA's National Weather Service tornado confirmation report that should take some time to verify & produce, but this web link below with 5 tornado videos appears interesting:  



http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2012/04/saturday-april-14-2012-tornado-outbreak-videos/ 

Saturday, April 14, 2012, Tornado Outbreak Videos

April 15, 2012 


"Storm chasers had a field day on Saturday, April 14, 2012, with over *121 confirmed tornadoes in four states*."


April 14, 2012, tornado near Waynoka, Oklahoma


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a good collection of photo's from yesterday.
> 
> http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/terr...alflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=buzzfeed



Some cool stuff there, but my slow 768Kbps DSL web connection takes lots of time to show me the BuzzFeed web site usually.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 16, 2012)

Probably nothing new here but confirms some previous posts.

Here's a few other weekend tornado news reports worth considering . . . 



http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/usatoday/article/39056079?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s 

*At least 9 tornadoes confirmed in Nebraska*

Apr. 16, 2012 

"The *National Weather Service said Monday that it had confirmed nine tornadoes hit Nebraska* on Saturday as part of the outbreak across the Great Plains. The total could grow as additional tornado reports are examined."

"*Overall, about 75 tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Oklahoma* on Saturday and Sunday. Most struck in Kansas." 



http://www.kmbc.com/r/30902494/detail.html 

Wichita Storm Victims Pick Up Pieces

April 16, 2012 

"The *National Weather Service estimated 75 different tornadoes hit Kansas* over the weekend" 



http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57414792/75-tornadoes-hit-great-plains-over-the-weekend/ 

75 tornadoes hit Great Plains over the weekend 

April 16, 2012 

"Forecasters say it appears about *75 tornadoes* touched down in four Great Plains states Saturday."


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 16, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a good collection of photo's from yesterday.
> 
> http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/terr...alflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=buzzfeed



Unreal....


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 17, 2012)

Their calling for 2-4 inches now. I just dont know, but we sure could use it. My catfish pond is already dropping a little. Thats usually not until July or so.


----------



## Turkeypaw (Apr 17, 2012)

From the Storm Prediction Center.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 21, 2012)

Looks like the cold air damming (CAD) is doing it's job, just as I thought it would.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Apr 21, 2012)

So no rain?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 21, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> So no rain?



Very little, if any.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Apr 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Very little, if any.



We got a decent shower earlier this evening.


----------



## Nastytater (Apr 21, 2012)

Sprinkling here in gwinnett county right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 22, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> We got a decent shower earlier this evening.



Yeah, we got a monsterous .21" last night....


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 22, 2012)

Supposed to get down to 28 and snow here tonight. Yay.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Apr 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, we got a monsterous .21" last night....



Better than nothing?


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 23, 2012)

no rain for me at all! on to the next system...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 26, 2012)

Thank God we're not in for a repeat of one year ago / tomorrow.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 26, 2012)

We've had enough fun up here today-been under a severe storm warning off and on all day, spent half the day sawing up downed trees. Nice storms of big hail, too, for variety. Looks like another line of nasty ones coming in from KY/TN in a couple hours.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 27, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> We've had enough fun up here today-been under a severe storm warning off and on all day, spent half the day sawing up downed trees. Nice storms of big hail, too, for variety. Looks like another line of nasty ones coming in from KY/TN in a couple hours.



did you make it through last nights storms okay?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 27, 2012)

Yep. Thankfully, that nasty squall line coming out of Kentucky kinda gradually fizzled out over eastern TN after the sun went down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 27, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Yep. Thankfully, that nasty squall line coming out of Kentucky kinda gradually fizzled out over eastern TN after the sun went down.



Yeah, and so did our last chance of a good rain shower. Now I'm paying for county water to wet my garden down real good..


----------



## Hornet22 (Apr 27, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, and so did our last chance of a good rain shower. Now I'm paying for county water to wet my garden down real good..



Tell me about it. We may have to find somewhere in these here parts for rbama to plan a hunting trip.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 27, 2012)

Hornet22 said:


> Tell me about it. We may have to find somewhere in these here parts for rbama to plan a hunting trip.



He can come up to Ft. Yargo for a fishing trip. He doesn't hardly ever catch anything anyway, so fishing there won't hurt his feelings, and it sure won't hurt mine as long as we get some rain out of his trip..


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Apr 27, 2012)

Heard a summary on the local TV weather that the 2011 tornado outbreak was 350 tornadoes touching down over a 3 day or 48 hour period. Even though the Tuscaloosa, AL tornado videos call it an EF4 except one did label it an EF5 tornado, I thought the Atlanta TV meteorologist called it an EF5. 

Here's the 2011 Tuscaloosa, AL tornado video with 6,371,433 Views below:  


4/27/11 - Tuscaloosa Tornado

 

Description:  This video is from the EF4 tornado that went through Tuscaloosa, AL on 4/27/11. It was taken from the University Mall parking lot. Probably the closest video to the storm your going to see.



Here's a 2011 Tornado reminder with a series of 22 photos with descriptions from 1-year ago at the web link below:  



http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/alabama-tornado-042711_2011-04-27 

Photos: April 27, 2011 Superoutbreak 




















Photo in the file attachment below is *"Arial view of Pleasant Grove, Alabama aftermath"*, a suburb town of Birmingham, AL.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 29, 2012)

MC,
Are we just in some kind of pattern that wont allow us any rain or what? My yard is already cracking, grass is brown, and catfish pong already 1/2 foot low. And it only first of May.....

Any changes or hope in sight? This stinks.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 29, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> MC,
> Are we just in some kind of pattern that wont allow us any rain or what? My yard is already cracking, grass is brown, and catfish pong already 1/2 foot low. And it only first of May.....
> 
> Any changes or hope in sight? This stinks.....



I'm keeping my fingers crossed.


----------



## Throwback (Apr 29, 2012)

http://www.secondpagemedia.com/jadblog/2012/02/la-nina-draws-to-close-el-nino-for-winter-201213/

T


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 29, 2012)

Throwback said:


> http://www.secondpagemedia.com/jadblog/2012/02/la-nina-draws-to-close-el-nino-for-winter-201213/
> 
> T





Unfortunately, if im reading this article correctly, things are gonna get worse???    

Lord I hope not....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 30, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> Unfortunately, if im reading this article correctly, things are gonna get worse???
> 
> Lord I hope not....



Pay no attention to that drivel. If the Mayans are correct, we'll be chillin off pretty good by then..


----------



## YankeeRedneck (May 3, 2012)

I hope we get some of that rain that's over in Alabama right now.
Can anyone do the rain dance for us??


----------



## SnowHunter (May 3, 2012)

YankeeRedneck said:


> I hope we get some of that rain that's over in Alabama right now.
> Can anyone do the rain dance for us??



Go find someone to cut hay!!! Soon as everyone cut hay round here, it rained the day after


----------



## blood on the ground (May 3, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Go find someone to cut hay!!! Soon as everyone cut hay round here, it rained the day after



hhmm.....never herd that one. i always did the wash yer truck rain dance

NOAA has almost the entire state of GA under a slight risk for severe weather saturday.


----------



## Holton (May 3, 2012)

Come on over here rain..


----------



## Trigabby (May 3, 2012)

Well, they cut a whole bunch of hay just the other day and here comes the rain... Hail of up to 1 inch in Carroll County now...


----------



## Dustin Pate (May 3, 2012)

End up with over 2.5" down here in Heard County. Had a good batch of hail come through also. I think I saw the grass perk up already!


----------



## Throwback (May 3, 2012)

Dustin Pate said:


> End up with over 2.5" down here in Heard County. Had a good batch of hail come through also. I think I saw the grass perk up already!



only enough to damp the dust just south of you. 

just  enough to mess up the hay baling...

T


----------



## rjcruiser (May 4, 2012)

We didn't get a drop last night...so...figured I'd break out the sprinkler for this morning.  Watered a good 30-45 minutes and turned it off.

Guess what...it's now raining.  I guess it is a good thing as I only got a one section of my backyard done.


----------



## blood on the ground (May 14, 2012)

1 3/4 of rain in south paulding this past weekend.


----------



## shakey gizzard (May 17, 2012)

Heads up Cumming , Alpharetta! 1/4 inch of pea size hail amd heavy rain


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 17, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Heads up Cumming , Alpharetta! 1/4 inch of pea size hail amd heavy rain



Dang boy, that's just a good ol' thundershower...


----------



## NCHillbilly (May 17, 2012)

My county is lit up right now for a ST warning.


----------



## shakey gizzard (May 17, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dang boy, that's just a good ol' thundershower...



Yep! Were'nt fast enough to get the yard mowed. .32 in 20 minutes! I'll take it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 17, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> My county is lit up right now for a ST warning.



Yeah, we got that STS up where Shakey pointed out and a big area under a STS Warning down in SSE Ga. but these things aren't staying alive too long. They have good bowling alley thunder when they come out of the east like this too..


----------



## Les Miles (May 17, 2012)

Got a little rain and some boomers here on the Hill


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 19, 2012)

Say hello to Alberto.


----------



## Lukikus2 (May 24, 2012)

Got hit by a microburst this afternoon. Slung stuff around, quarter size hail,  took out the top of some big live oaks, totally sucked four palms out of the ground and the better half was standing on the porch watching. 

Nothing epoxy and silicone won't fix. 

Weather is very unstable down here. Can't complain. Need the rain.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (May 24, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Say hello to Alberto.
> 
> View attachment 667431


Channel 13 out of Macon showed some Models that have Alberto making a hard left, and making landfall around Savannah. Then marching westward across central, and southwest Georgia.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (May 25, 2012)

New storm forming this weekend ALREADY we have had two this is early!
You guys think this may mean a busy hurricane season?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Channel 13 out of Macon showed some Models that have Alberto making a hard left, and making landfall around Savannah. Then marching westward across central, and southwest Georgia.



I guess we saw how that turned out for them huh?



YankeeRedneck said:


> New storm forming this weekend ALREADY we have had two this is early!
> You guys think this may mean a busy hurricane season?



Time of year or frequency is not an indicator of what the rest of the season will be like. After all, Alberto was only two weeks early, and fizzled out pretty quick despite the percentage of development chances the NWS gave it.

Remember, the news MUST hype whatever they can in order to get folks attention now days, otherwise they would be out of a job. 

I've been watchin the new one down on the Fla. coast a couple of days now. We'll see what it has in mind pretty soon.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (May 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I guess we saw how that turned out for them huh?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The new one is the one I was talking about. I didn't notice the date on your post.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> The new one is the one I was talking about. I didn't notice the date on your post.



Hmmm, well, we'll see. Interesting that the local WG's would be so bold as to make forecasting leaps such as that when not even the NHC has projected a path yet.  I wonder what the over/under in their office pool is on this bet?


----------



## Keebs (May 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hmmm, well, we'll see. Interesting that the local WG's would be so bold as to make forecasting leaps such as that when not even the NHC has projected a path yet.  I wonder what the over/under in their office pool is on this bet?


 well, what you thinkin it's gonna do?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

Keebs said:


> well, what you thinkin it's gonna do?



Nobody is brave enough to put projections to tropical systems before they even develop. !!!! Well, almost nobody. Apparently the Macon weather folks have a crystal ball..


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (May 25, 2012)

I just want to know what the weather forcast is for June 3 - June 10 off the South Carolina Coast somewhere between Charleston and Hilton Head. That's all...............


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I just want to know what the weather forcast is for June 3 - June 10 off the South Carolina Coast somewhere between Charleston and Hilton Head. That's all...............



I'll let you know on the 30th..


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (May 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll let you know on the 30th..



gee thanks mr weather guy.


----------



## mudracing101 (May 25, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> gee thanks mr weather guy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> gee thanks mr weather guy.



Tune into the Macon, Ga channels. I hear they have a crystal ball that tells them what the forecast will be on tropical systems before they even develop..


----------



## Throwback (May 25, 2012)

where is this "new" one I've heard about? I was told this afternoon it was supposed to rain here over labor day weekend, but the weather sites say 0% chance?

T


----------



## gobbleinwoods (May 25, 2012)

Throwback said:


> where is this "new" one I've heard about? I was told this afternoon it was supposed to rain here over labor day weekend, but the weather sites say 0% chance?
> 
> T



here for what it is worth.


----------



## Lukikus2 (May 25, 2012)

Computer models are showing the low system in the Gulf turning back toward land later this weekend and hitting around the Ga/Fl border. Sure could use the rain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

Throwback said:


> where is this "new" one I've heard about? I was told this afternoon it was supposed to rain here over labor day weekend, but the weather sites say 0% chance?
> 
> T



Merely an invest at this point, and we don't get four-a-day updates until June 1st. We'll see what tomorrow brings for this one.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 25, 2012)

Throwback said:


> where is this "new" one I've heard about? I was told this afternoon it was supposed to rain here over labor day weekend, but the weather sites say 0% chance?
> 
> T



Well, you want rain?



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. 
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.  PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (May 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tune into the Macon, Ga channels. I hear they have a crystal ball that tells them what the forecast will be on tropical systems before they even develop..





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, you want rain?
> 
> View attachment 668688
> 
> ...


That's pretty much what that fellar in Macon was projecting last night!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> That's pretty much what that fellar in Macon was projecting last night!!



Last night is fine, but last night isn't when you said he forecasted it originally. Any licensed met will tell you that forecasting a tropical system's track before it is even born is about as foolish as pinpointing which house in a neighborhood will get struck by lightning. 

These things turn on a dime and are pretty quirky, I'd certainly never wager such a bet, and I don't have anything to lose over it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Beryl, track & advisory 2A.



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## Throwback (May 26, 2012)

looks like it won't make it here


T


----------



## Dustin Pate (May 26, 2012)

Throwback said:


> looks like it won't make it here
> 
> 
> T



I wish it would. West Point could use a fresh drink of water in a bad way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Throwback said:


> looks like it won't make it here
> 
> 
> T





Dustin Pate said:


> I wish it would. West Point could use a fresh drink of water in a bad way.



I wouldn't bet against a fair amount of rain if Beryl holds it's forecast course. Just because the center of the system isn't looking like it'll come our way doesn't mean that it won't throw a good bit of moisture this way.

The GFS 80hrs out shows a fair amount of moisture being tossed NW'ward. It also shows the center of Beryl making it into the Gulf before doing a 180 and heading back across Fl into the Atlantic. On that particular precip model run it is showing a significant amount of moisture being brought up into the northern half of Ga. from the system.

Like I always say, as unpredictable as tropical systems are, time will tell. One thing is for sure, if it holds it's course I expect folks in SEGA and possibly SOWEGA to get a lot of water, more than they need, and not in a good way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Beryl track and advisory #3



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 76.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## fireman401 (May 26, 2012)

Come on Beryl....we need a "rain with a name" here to at least stall the drought conditions.  I know, it would be short lived, but at least wet for a few days.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Beryl track and advisory #3A



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL STALLS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 76.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. BERYL
HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

From the Chatham Emergency Management Agency (CEMA)


AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SUBTROPICAL BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE SYSTEM IN ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND IS STILL INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 

AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIND WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY APPROACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE PORTIONS OF GEORGIA UNDER THE WARNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY MINOR WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME DOWNED TREES OR TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE INLAND FLOODING THREAT IS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM STALLS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOODING MAY BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

Protective actions- Secure loose objects outside, such as trash cans. Not only can they be moved easily by wind, but also flying debris.

*Beryl tracking and advisory #4*



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING BERYL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER
OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## shakey gizzard (May 26, 2012)

It better not rain in PCB!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Beryl tracking and advisory #4A



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT BERYL IS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 76.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...145 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## whitetaco02 (May 26, 2012)

If it keeps this up we may not get any.  We need it coming further in.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 26, 2012)

Beryl tracking and advisory #5



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST FORECAST ON SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. 

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

The surf on the Ga. coast should be kicking up pretty good soon as the bands of rain approach from the east. High tides should be a little higher than projected and low tides won't be as low as projected with wind and surf driving the water from east to west.


Beryl tracking and Advisory #6







BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 
OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

*Just in from CEMA:*



Chatham remains in a Tropical Storm Warning. We should see effect of TS Beryl this afternoon and evening. Moderate winds and heavy rain is expected.

Recommend residents and businesses:

1) secure outdoor items easily blown around by winds
2) prepare for the possibility of power outages and downed trees
3) maintain awareness of potential impacts to area.

CEMA will remain in OPCON 4 until the storm threat dissipates.

EXCERPT FROM THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SO. OF I-16 IN SOUTHEAST GA.

PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION OCCURRING AROUND HIGH TIDE.

INLAND FLOODING THREAT IS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AN EXTENDED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SE GA THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH IS
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE & PROPERTY.

EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS, DOCKS, MARINAS: URGENTLY COMPLETE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT, MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT.

SMALL WATERCRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT & WELL SECURED.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

Beryl tracking and advisory 6A:



BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
800 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
STORM... 


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H. 

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

*Notification just in from CEMA:*

Reports are starting to come in of trees being down, power lines down, and lights out at intersections. Please use caution if you are out and about today or plan to later. 

As mentioned, satellite indicates Beryl has strengthented and now has maximum sustained winds of near 65mph, with gusts being higher. Beryl is officially a Tropical Storm instead of a Subtropical.  Little change is expected before landfall. Beryl is expected to weaken to a depression on Monday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

The Port of Savannah is now officially closed.

From CEMA:

@ChathamEMA:  The US Coast Guard Captain of the Port has closed the Savannah River to inbound and outbound vessels due to strong winds.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 27, 2012)

CCEMA SitRep #3


CAMDEN COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
EVENT: Tropical Storm Beryl
SITUATION REPORT, TS-B3
Date:4.27.2012

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased

PROCLAMATIONS/DECLARATIONS:
Operation Condition 4 remains in effect for today. This is a monitoring phase in which we closely follow the storm updates and issues advisories.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS TO CAMDEN COUNTY:
Based on the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, the maximum sustained winds associated with Tropical Storm Beryl have increased to 65 mph. Through our conversations with the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, we do not expect the sustained winds to be this high when the storm makes landfall later this evening.
However, we could expect 45 to 55 mph winds along the coast with the possibility of slightly higher gust. We expect these winds to impact our area anywhere from 8 PM tonight to 2 AM tomorrow. Forward speed of the storm will determine how long these winds will last, but we could expect them to last throughout the night.
Tides could be slightly higher than previously predicted. We now could expect 3 to 4 feet higher than normal tides.
High winds and falling trees could potentially cause power outages. Utility Companies will have to wait until the higher winds subside before beginning their repairs.
Rainfall is the bigger of the expected impacts for Camden County. Total amounts for today and tomorrow could be as high as 3 to 6 inches.

RECOMMENDED LOCAL ACTIONS:
Camden County res idents should prepare homes and property by securing all loose outdoor items that could be affected by high winds.
Residents close to tidal waters should take precautions for a higher than normal tide.
We recommend that residents plan to remain indoors while the storm makes its way on shore later this afternoon.
Camden County residents should also review their hurricane plans, stock their hurricane supplies and monitor the progress of the storm. Periodical updates will be provided as long as the threat of tropical weather exist.
To monitor the progress of the storm between updates, please check the National Hurricane Center website at http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or call the Emergency Management office at 912-729-5602.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Click here for the latest video briefing on Sub Tropical Storm Beryl for National Weather Service Jacksonville.

PROCLAMATIONS/DECLARATIONS:
None at this time.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS TO CAMDEN COUNTY:
None at this time.

RECOMMENDED LOCAL ACTIONS:
Based on current advisory, Camden County does not expect Hurricane force winds or significant storm surge. If conditions remain the same, no evacuations are expected.

Camden County residents should review their hurricane plans, stock their hurricane supplies and monitor the progress of the storm. Periodical updates will be provided as long as the threat of tropical weather exist.

To monitor the progress of the storm between updates, please check the National Hurricane Center website at http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or call the Emergency Management office at 912-729-5602.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 28, 2012)

I'm wondering, if the WOW's of SOWEGA have about finished their Ark yet?

Hope you gals stay safe while Beryl pays you a visit.


----------



## Les Miles (May 28, 2012)

The wind is blowing around pretty good up here in Sugar Hill this morning. Hope those idjits down south stay safe.


----------



## SGADawg (May 28, 2012)

Just now getting our first significant rain with moderate winds (maybe 10 mph) here at Douglas.  We could actually use 2-4" without serious issues except for very low areas.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (May 28, 2012)

From the weather radars I've seen, looks like way more rain is falling in North Florida than South Georgia, but hope S. GA gets more of the rain they are desperately needing to help offset some of their extreme & exceptional drought conditions. 

EDIT: Looks like moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico is what's bringing in more rain for N. Florida in the doppler radars.

























Georgia Drought Monitor at web link below:  

http://www.lawrencevilleweather.com/georgia-drought.html 

OR 

http://www.lawrencevilleweather.com/georgia-drought.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 28, 2012)

Low Tornado risk for SOWEGA and NOFLA
...SRN GA/NERN FL...
   WILL INCLUDE A VERY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY WITH THIS OTLK ACROSS
   NRN/NERN QUADRANT OF TD BERYL. VERY MOIST/SATURATED TROPICAL 
   AIRMASS EXISTS WITHIN THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION ACROSS NRN FL AND
   SRN GA. WHILE LATEST INDICATIONS ALSO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
   AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
   AROUND THE CYCLONE REMAIN STRONG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
   ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
   LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS IF GREATER DESTABILIZATION CAN BE
   REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE
   NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
   INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST THIS
   AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS EXHIBITING PERSISTENT ROTATION IN THE PRESENCE
   OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WOULD POSE SOME THREAT OF A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT.




Also see this flood watch map and advisory



...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FLORIDA...COASTAL DIXIE...COASTAL
  JEFFERSON...COASTAL TAYLOR...INLAND DIXIE...INLAND JEFFERSON...
  INLAND TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND MADISON. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  GEORGIA...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...COLQUITT...COOK...
  IRWIN...LANIER...LOWNDES...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (May 28, 2012)

The muscled up weather dude from TWC was giving a live report on the beach outside our hotel at the King and Prince.  Management was good enough to refund our money for our last nights stay and we shagged a day early.  No sense spending that kind of $$$ to watch the wind blow all day.


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

We best start paying attention to Thursday - Friday time frame.  I don't like the looks of things...  This will only shift East and with it being June... it's a little late in the time frame to be seeing cape and shear this powerful.

Miguel, you got your ears on?


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

Holy Water Maker Batman.  

You folks in SE GA should be happy to see this radar pic. 

She is going to pull NE ward as the day rolls on, but boy is she dumping out the clear liquid this morning!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> Holy Water Maker Batman.
> 
> You folks in SE GA should be happy to see this radar pic.
> 
> She is going to pull NE ward as the day rolls on, but boy is she dumping out the clear liquid this morning!



Bout time you showed up and did something around here...


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Bout time you showed up and did something around here...





I have had to be a productive citizen at work.  Turned in my first invention discolsure Friday.   

With all this rain and some severe wx on the way... I am going to sneak in here every now and again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> I have had to be a productive citizen at work.  Turned in my first invention discolsure Friday.
> 
> With all this rain and some severe wx on the way... I am going to sneak in here every now and again.



Well, while your at it, procure some of that rain for SOWEGA and North of Macon. We all need it bad, especially those SOWEGA folks. Nicodemus said it was so dry down there that he saw some gators packing up and heading south to Mexico with some illegal aliens.


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, while your at it, procure some of that rain for SOWEGA and North of Macon. We all need it bad, especially those SOWEGA folks. Nicodemus said it was so dry down there that he saw some gators packing up and heading south to Mexico with some illegal aliens.



Don't know if you saw it or not, but apparently one jumped the fence and is living in Statham now.  

A gator that close to Athens, surely will die.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> Don't know if you saw it or not, but apparently one jumped the fence and is living in Statham now.
> 
> A gator that close to Athens, surely will die.


----------



## Keebs (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> Holy Water Maker Batman.
> 
> You folks in SE GA should be happy to see this radar pic.
> 
> She is going to pull NE ward as the day rolls on, but boy is she _*dumping out*_ the clear liquid this morning!


some but it isn't pouring, more of a heavy mist, but I'll take it any way we can at this point!


----------



## shakey gizzard (May 29, 2012)

Keebs said:


> some but it isn't pouring, more of a heavy mist, but I'll take it any way we can at this point!



Is'nt "heavy mist" the same as a sprinkle?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Is'nt "heavy mist" the same as a sprinkle?



Actually, no, it's not.


----------



## Keebs (May 29, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Is'nt "heavy mist" the same as a sprinkle?


nope!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actually, no, it's not.


 thank you!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

Looks like some areas of SC could expect north of 6" of rainfall over the next 24 hours.


----------



## blood on the ground (May 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like some areas of SC could expect north of 6" of rainfall over the next 24 hours.
> 
> View attachment 669288



any of this going to make it to west ga


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> any of this going to make it to west ga



Not likely, but there is a front approaching from the WNW that will bring you a good 10 minute sprinkle or so. This will help Beryl to decide to move on out as well.


----------



## blood on the ground (May 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not likely, but there is a front approaching from the WNW that will bring you a good 10 minute sprinkle or so. This will help Beryl to decide to move on out as well.



 i had hopes for no baseball tonight.


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

Some nice bands are forming in NW GA and the Mountains.

Even better stuff back up in TN if it will hold together.  

Friday during the day we will have to be on alert.  At least the way it looks right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> Some nice bands are forming in NW GA and the Mountains.
> 
> Even better stuff back up in TN if it will hold together.
> 
> Friday during the day we will have to be on alert.  At least the way it looks right now.



Moderate CAPE, Minimal CIN, Good LI, I wasn't going to bother them with the prospect of late afternoon and evening weather on Friday just yet. I'm still hoping it will all go away....I HATE night time storms..


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Moderate CAPE, Minimal CIN, Good LI, I wasn't going to bother them with the prospect of late afternoon and evening weather on Friday just yet. I'm still hoping it will all go away....I HATE night time storms..



daytime heating will have to help out for sure


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> daytime heating will have to help out for sure


That is the only saving grace up our way, hopefully. Middle Georgia? not so much, CAPE is higher, later at night and temps will be well into the 90's. Can you say powder keg with a short fuse?


----------



## DDD (May 29, 2012)

I am surprised by the strength the storms have maintained out of TN.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 30, 2012)

DDD said:


> I am surprised by the strength the storms have maintained out of TN.



Watching the videos of the stuff out of Ok. this morning. 5 inch hail????  Monster supercells. A storm chasers ultimate set up.

Not interested in seeing any of that mess down here.

I DO NOT like the tell-tale CAPE/CIN/LI maps I am seeing for the 18z period on the 1st, on the 6z run this morning. 

The only comforting element on the 6z run is that for the same period on Friday the crossover shear isn't too crazy (just yet) to encourage crazy mad rotation, however, as you pointed out yesterday, daytime heating combined with the LI could take care of that in isolated areas. What is kind of crazy and disturbing at the same time, is the temps during the day aren't as volatile as they will be when the actual turbulence of the front gets here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 30, 2012)

30% is HUGE, and this map is primarily Thur. into Friday. That percentage will diminish a tad as it slides our way later in the evening on Friday, but thus far it appears our most volatile period will be from late afternoon to midnight on Friday.



Here's the lowdown synopsis for our area(although their timeline seems to be off)

...FL/SOUTHERN GA...
   AT LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN FL AND PERHAPS SOUTH GA.
   DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS.


----------



## blood on the ground (May 30, 2012)

great! well i guess its time to test the new roof!


----------



## DDD (May 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Watching the videos of the stuff out of Ok. this morning. 5 inch hail????  Monster supercells. A storm chasers ultimate set up.
> 
> Not interested in seeing any of that mess down here.
> 
> ...



From what I am reading, next week is going to be  too.  Very out of character for this time of year.

Timing is going to be everything with how bad and where.  Friday is the bad day in my opinion.  We may see some storminess tomorrow, but Friday will be the day.  It will be fun to watch the model runs come out today.  I look for that conus to open up.


----------



## Greene728 (May 30, 2012)

Watching and waiting guys. Keep us updayed!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 30, 2012)

greene728 said:


> watching and waiting guys. Keep us updayed!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 30, 2012)

Looks like a rough day in the Ark-La-Miss region tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 31, 2012)

Today and tomorrows STS outlook and below that the TorCon index for both days. As a side note, once these storms have moved through we are going to love the high temps for the weekend..



Thursday, May 31

AL north, central - 2
AR south, east - 2 to 3
IL extreme south - 4
IN extreme south - 4
KY west, north - 4
KY all other areas - 3
LA north, central, southwest - 2
MS north, central, southwest - 2 to 3
MO extreme southeast - 2 to 3
OH southwest - 3
TN west, middle - 2 to 3
TX east, south to San Antonio - 2 to 3
Other areas - 1 or less

Friday, June 1

AL south - 2
DC - 4
DE - 4
FL panhandle - 2
GA east-central, south - 2
MD east - 4
MD central - 2 to 3
NC central, east - 2
NJ north - 2
NJ south - 3
PA southeast - 4
SC central, east - 2
VA north - 4
VA south-central, east - 2 to 3
Other areas - 1 or less


----------



## blood on the ground (May 31, 2012)

im ready for fall!


----------



## DDD (May 31, 2012)

hmmmmm... picked this up from one of the VERY good mets up in N.C. about 15 minutes ago.



> Starting to get a little concerned about Tenn Valley, Deep South, and then for lower Ohio Valley tonight. The trough is digging nicely, crashing height field, and trough will go negative tilt in eastern Tenn. Valley/Southern Apps by 6 AM Friday. This will keep the severe threat high , and increasing all through the night for much of Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky this afternoon and especially tonig...ht. By Friday, this will become north Georgia, all of Carolinas and Virginias problem then the MidAtlantic up the East Coast as strong secondary development along a triple point somewhere in VA could occur. Lots of minor details to work out, like where will the best heating, solar insolation, worked over atmosphere, etc...but overall, this looks like a very significant event and has potential to develop into a major event some areas.


----------



## whitetaco02 (May 31, 2012)

Getting dark outside!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 31, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> Getting dark outside!!



Does that about this time every day.


----------



## gacowboy (May 31, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> im ready for fall!



YES!! Me too!!!!


----------



## Rockdale Buck (May 31, 2012)

Rockdale County BAD weather


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (May 31, 2012)

Rockdale Buck said:


> Rockdale County BAD weather


Just little thunderboomers for now, but Hancock, Greene and Putnam are getting their rear ends handed to them. Pretty good cells out that way and under STS warnings until 10pm


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 1, 2012)

Looks like we'll be in the temperature friendly slot while the moisture passes through this morning and most of the day. I expect them to fire again later in the day, so that means perhaps SE GA , SC and NC will see some activity.


----------



## StriperAddict (Jun 1, 2012)

Tks M.  It's not the 1st day of 'summer' and already there's been too many hot days (IMO), although I'd enjoy more storms; not just for some cooling but the "lightening drama" . 

Looking forward to a bit of cooldown tomorrow!


----------



## DDD (Jun 3, 2012)

Guys, I am playing catch up, I have been on the ball field all day.

Severe wx is headed our way and I am really surprised at how strong the wx is.  Tornado warning for West Tennessee just expired.


----------



## DDD (Jun 3, 2012)

The main weather maker is back in Arkansas and Louisiana.  We should be rocking good by lunch tomorrow.

There is enough sheer and lift for us to see some tornados tomorrow but also super cell development that will yield strong winds and hail.


----------



## DDD (Jun 3, 2012)

Short term /tonight through monday night/...
An unsettled weather pattern getting ready to affect the area as
short waves in the upper flow look to bring a couple of rounds of
showers and thunderstorms...roughly later tonight/early monday and
later monday to monday night. Enough instability associated that
there is a chance of strong storms later tonight and a slight risk
of severe storms across most of the area on monday. Enough
uncertainty exists for how much overall instability but generally
think there is plenty of dynamics associated with the short waves.
There is also concern that the gfs and nam are either overdoing or
under-doing the short wave activity. Highest pops over nw ga tonight
with 60-70 percent and 60 to 70 percent for n and much of central ga
monday into monday night.


----------



## HUNTER475 (Jun 3, 2012)

Keep us posted !!!


----------



## DDD (Jun 4, 2012)

Quick, go take a 55 gallon drum and hook it up to your down spout, some good soaking, fill up your garden with water rain coming.

If it will hold together.

Thunderstorms later today with some that will be of severe levels.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Jun 4, 2012)

DDD said:


> Quick, go take a 55 gallon drum and hook it up to your down spout, some good soaking, fill up your garden with water rain coming.



Just got done....(note to self)Don't wait till rain is right on top of you for the next one.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 4, 2012)

nothing severe (yet) in marietta just a nice slow rain and 68. it would be a great day to be sleepin in the camper..


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jun 4, 2012)

Got right at a half inch so far here. The garden is loving it!


----------



## SGADawg (Jun 4, 2012)

Dustin Pate said:


> Got right at a half inch so far here. The garden is loving it!



Send some of that on down here to south GA.  85 and sunny right now.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Jun 4, 2012)

Rain barrel....WOW

I had 2 pickle jars sitting on the back deck that I checked after the light rain here this morning.Wasn't even enough water to cover the bottom of the jars.
Then I looked at the barrel I had just installed,over 30 gallons just from one little section of roof.


----------



## Keebs (Jun 4, 2012)

small size hail in Fitzgerald!


----------



## DDD (Jun 4, 2012)

Tornado warning went up for Liberty county about an hour ago... sorry I am so late to the party.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jun 4, 2012)

Swing and a miss here!  Nothing here!


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 5, 2012)

Nice rain in paulding over night.


----------



## DDD (Jun 5, 2012)

raining good right now over a good portion of Lanier.  It needs it.

We should get some good thunder boomers this evening.  Where it does rain, it will pile up in a hurry.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jun 5, 2012)

DDD said:


> raining good right now over a good portion of Lanier.  It needs it.
> 
> We should get some good thunder boomers this evening.  Where it does rain, it will pile up in a hurry.



I thought it was gunna be done by noon!


----------



## Keebs (Jun 5, 2012)




----------



## crackerdave (Jun 5, 2012)

Lord,_please_ send more rain.Hold the tornadoes on mine,though.Please.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 6, 2012)

crackerdave said:


> lord,_please_ send more rain.hold the tornadoes on mine,though.please.



x2


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jun 10, 2012)




----------



## whitetaco02 (Jun 10, 2012)

We got POUNDED with rain and lightning today!  Sure am thankful for the rain!!!!


----------



## DDD (Jun 11, 2012)

crackerdave said:


> Lord,_please_ send more rain.Hold the tornadoes on mine,though.Please.



Your prayers have been answered and continue to be.

Good rain headed your way as I type this.  All of us should get in on the action today.


A lot of H2O has fallen out of the sky since Saturday night.  This is a good thing being that it is June.  We need to take all we can get.

Rain is a good thang....


----------



## DDD (Jun 11, 2012)

Columbus looks to be getting frog hammered with rain.  Should be interesting to see what they total up after tomorrow.


----------



## Keebs (Jun 11, 2012)

DDD said:


> Your prayers have been answered and continue to be.
> 
> Good rain headed your way as I type this.  All of us should get in on the action today.
> 
> ...


Hey, D3, is this system gonna move south any or is it just gonna go *straight* across??


----------



## DDD (Jun 11, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Hey, D3, is this system gonna move south any or is it just gonna go *straight* across??



Straight as she goes!!!  However, South GA may get in on some good action tomorrow as the front pushes through.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 11, 2012)

I was surprised to hear about the recent 21-inches of historic record rainfall in Pensacola, Florida.  God Bless those folks down there.   



http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/severe-floods-record-heat-hit-gulf-coast-16539240 


Severe Floods, Record Heat Hit Gulf Coast

21-inches of rain hits Pensacola, Florida leaving neighborhoods submerged.

06/11/2012 


<object name="kaltura_player_1339441194" id="kaltura_player_1339441194" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowScriptAccess="always" allowNetworking="all" allowFullScreen="true" height="360" width="640" data="http://cdnapi.kaltura.com/index.php/kwidget/wid/0_jr35n672/uiconf_id/6501142">
  <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/>
  <param name="allowNetworking" value="all"/>
  <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"/>
  <param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/>
  <param name="movie" value="http://cdnapi.kaltura.com/index.php/kwidget/wid/0_jr35n672/uiconf_id/6501142"/>
  <param name="flashVars" value="referer=http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/severe-floods-record-heat-hit-gulf-coast-16539240&autoPlay=false"/>
video platform
video management
video solutions
video player
</object>


----------



## DDD (Jun 11, 2012)

Ya'll take a look up towards Memphis if you get a chance.  That is our weather for tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 11, 2012)

DDD said:


> Ya'll take a look up towards Memphis if you get a chance.  That is our weather for tomorrow.



Now THAT'S what I call weather!!


----------



## sbfowler (Jun 11, 2012)

Is that weather system going to fizzle out or hold together as it approaches? We got some rain, but we should could use more according to my boat's depth finder!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 11, 2012)

sbfowler said:


> Is that weather system going to fizzle out or hold together as it approaches? We got some rain, but we should could use more according to my boat's depth finder!!



Won't be near as volatile, but still a good shot at more rain.


----------



## rjcruiser (Jun 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Won't be near as volatile, but still a good shot at more rain.



Hopefully it will be through here by the evening so I can play some tennis


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 11, 2012)

North Ms. and NW Al. are getting ripped by some seriously strong STS action. Echo tops aren't particularly impressive for this time of year, but the meso rotation in these cells is strong and frequently, but briefly giving TVS signatures. I would imagine these folks are seeing some really good wall clouds, heavy lightning, hail and strong downburst winds. In fact, I just saw a report of trees down and power out in Florence Al.

All of this should weaken as it makes it's way eastward.


----------



## Nicodemus (Jun 11, 2012)

Hugh, we`ve had 3  8/10ths since yesterday mornin` down here at the house.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 11, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh, we`ve had 3  8/10ths since yesterday mornin` down here at the house.



You've got me beat Nic. We've only accrued 2.96" here at my house so far. We've got more coming, but like DDD said, I think y'all are gonna get the better of the rainfall with this next front moving through. I wonder how Deb is doin down on the swamp? I hope that river was low enough that all of this rain isn't going to make a mess for her again.


----------



## Nicodemus (Jun 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You've got me beat Nic. We've only accrued 2.96" here at my house so far. We've got more coming, but like DDD said, I think y'all are gonna get the better of the rainfall with this next front moving through. I wonder how Deb is doin down on the swamp? I hope that river was low enough that all of this rain isn't going to make a mess for her again.





She should be okay. If it even acts like it`s gettin` bad, we`re gonna take our trailers down there and get her stuff out. Even if she does rare up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 11, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> She should be okay. If it even acts like it`s gettin` bad, we`re gonna take our trailers down there and get her stuff out. Even if she does rare up.



I'd rather lasso a wild steer and try to bring it down by myself than tangle with that wildcat if she was to get riled up...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jun 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'd rather lasso a wild steer and try to bring it down by myself than tangle with that wildcat if she was to get riled up...





I ain`t skeered of her!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jun 11, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh, we`ve had 3  8/10ths since yesterday mornin` down here at the house.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> You've got me beat Nic. We've only accrued 2.96" here at my house so far. We've got more coming, but like DDD said, I think y'all are gonna get the better of the rainfall with this next front moving through. I wonder how Deb is doin down on the swamp? I hope that river was low enough that all of this rain isn't going to make a mess for her again.


Ya'll both got more than we got here. Since Saturday eve. we have had a total of an even 2"

Can't catch a break around here!!...........Doesn't matter which direction  the rain comes from it fizzles out before it gets here!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 12, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Ya'll both got more than we got here. Since Saturday eve. we have had a total of an even 2"
> 
> Can't catch a break around here!!...........Doesn't matter which direction  the rain comes from it fizzles out before it gets here!!!



Y'all have a hole in the ozone layer down there. Get Quack to stop eating so many beans and broccoli and maybe that problem will cure itself and allow a little more rain down that way.


----------



## DDD (Jun 12, 2012)

Western MS is just getting pounded with Rain this morning... its not moving very fast either...

Hopefully SGA can get some good soakers today.


----------



## DDD (Jun 12, 2012)

Just as I say that the rain litterally falls apart in an hour's time.  Geeze.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 15, 2012)

I am ready for a hurricane party


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 21, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> I am ready for a hurricane party



Nothing so far, but I am impressed by the increase in development of this disturbance. Only two days ago NHC only gave it a 10% rate of development chance. Now it is up to 50%. Maybe, just maybe, and hope that Bermuda HPS lets up a bit so it we can get some rain out of this one if it comes our way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 21, 2012)

Looking even better now. Just upgraded to 70% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.




1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jun 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looking even better now. Just upgraded to 70% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.
> 
> View attachment 672753
> 
> ...




Sure could use it!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 22, 2012)

Pressures continue to drop in this system, which is a good thing..


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pressures continue to drop in this system, which is a good thing..
> 
> View attachment 672801



THANK YOU SIR!!!:


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jun 22, 2012)

It's not a good thing if you took next week off to go to the beach and one scenario has it headed right over where you're going as a tropical storm or hurricane.  You think this thang is gonna stay in the gulf where it belongs or escape to the Atlantic?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 22, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> It's not a good thing if you took next week off to go to the beach and one scenario has it headed right over where you're going as a tropical storm or hurricane.  You think this thang is gonna stay in the gulf where it belongs or escape to the Atlantic?



"I think" until it develops into a true tropical depression or storm there is really no way of telling where it is going to track, and anyone saying otherwise is practicing fuzzy meteorology.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 22, 2012)

question, what does invest 96L mean?


----------



## Da Possum (Jun 22, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> question, what does invest 96L mean?



Duh; it's a mutual fund.  Everybody knows that


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 22, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> Duh; it's a mutual fund.  Everybody knows that



get back to the driveler idjit


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 22, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> question, what does invest 96L mean?



Identification

A tropical invest denotes a weather system--a potential development area--that has drawn the attention of a forecast authority like the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This interest spurs the gathering of specific data like microwave imagery and the running of model guidance.

Invest Names

In his book "Hurricane Almanac," author Bryan Norcross says that the NHC names all invests, beginning with a number then a letter. Numbers run from 90 to 99, then return to 90, with storm systems in the Atlantic given the designation "L," eastern Pacific storms receiving an "E," and those in the central Pacific, south of Hawaii, dubbed "C." For example, Invest 92E would signify a system in the eastern Pacific.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Identification
> 
> A tropical invest denotes a weather system--a potential development area--that has drawn the attention of a forecast authority like the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This interest spurs the gathering of specific data like microwave imagery and the running of model guidance.
> 
> ...



Great explanation thank you! I cant lie I did have to read it twice


----------



## win280 (Jun 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> "I think" until it develops into a true tropical depression or storm there is really no way of telling where it is going to track, and anyone saying otherwise is practicing fuzzy meteorology.



I think its headed toward wherever rhbama3 is going to be hunting next weekend.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jun 22, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> It's not a good thing if you took next week off to go to the beach and one scenario has it headed right over where you're going as a tropical storm or hurricane.  You think this thang is gonna stay in the gulf where it belongs or escape to the Atlantic?



Throw a hurricane party. I've rode out a couple tropical storms and one low grade hurricane at the beach. Really not bad if you are in an area you know isn't prone to major flooding and stuff like that. I did have to leave one time when a strong Cat. 2 came calling and glad I did when it was said and done.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 22, 2012)

Dustin Pate said:


> Throw a hurricane party. I've rode out a couple tropical storms and one low grade hurricane at the beach. Really not bad if you are in an area you know isn't prone to major flooding and stuff like that. I did have to leave one time when a strong Cat. 2 came calling and glad I did when it was said and done.



I was in Gulf Shores when Andrew passed, 150 miles out in the gulf. You couldn't stand to be outside the day it was passing and the surf was over the dunes and into the parking lot, it sounded pretty rough outside all night. The next day was huge waves and awesome surfing, then the next day was back to normal. I can't imagine how bad it would have been had Andrew been closer, that was a beast of a hurricane.


----------



## pstrahin (Jun 22, 2012)

My first hurricane was a sissy.  Gloria in September 1985.  I was at Langly AFB in Hampton VA.  2nd was 10 years later almost to the day.  Hurricane Fran.  That one put a hurtin on us.  I lived in Raleigh NC then.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 22, 2012)

Up to 80% with conditions for development still looking good.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jun 22, 2012)

Hugh, if you had to guess, do you think there is a possibility we could get some of this beneficial rain?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 23, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> Hugh, if you had to guess, do you think there is a possibility we could get some of this beneficial rain?



Not trying to be crass, but I don't guess on these things. I've seen em' tear up the coast and us not get  a drop, so this is truly a wait and see system.

That being said, potential seems to be good that this will be labeled a Tropical Depression or possibly even a Tropical Storm before the day is done.




1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  


TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.  HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 23, 2012)

Here is a Sat/enhanced IR4 shot of the intensity of the storms being generated as this system gets better organized.


----------



## pstrahin (Jun 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here is a Sat/enhanced IR4 shot of the intensity of the storms being generated as this system gets better organized.
> 
> View attachment 672924



Is there a projection for the path of the storm or is it too early to tell?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 23, 2012)

pstrahin said:


> Is there a projection for the path of the storm or is it too early to tell?



There won't be a projected path until it get's designated as a TD or TS.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 23, 2012)

To answer some of the questions regarding a speculative path; I've been reviewing some of the experimental marine forecast ensembles and they are consistently having this system get better organized and then moving off to the west with landfall around Brownsville Texas.

Keep in mind these are experimental models and may or may not represent the actual path this storm system will take.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 23, 2012)

Looks like the Marine Experimental models were correct. Say hello to Debby.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

Looks as if Debby's track has been adjusted a bit northward as she further develops.


----------



## Greene728 (Jun 24, 2012)

Roughly 200-250 more miles due north would be even better!


----------



## Throwback (Jun 24, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> Roughly 200-250 more miles due north would be even better!



yep. 

T


----------



## snookdoctor (Jun 24, 2012)

Looks like she's changing her mind again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

She's a real slow mover and had a wobble in the original marine forecast track. I'm suspecting that's what the adjustments in the tracking are responding to. It would be nice to get some of that moisture though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

Brad Panovich of WCNC in North Carolina proposes an interesting scenario in which Debby could be steered between ridges up over Georgia and NE'ward.

Here's the map he posted to support his thoughts.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

The Sunshine Skyway Bridge on Tampa Bay is now closed due to high winds from Debby. Also TS warnings in Louisiana have been cancelled.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

NHC just adjusted their track to match what Brad was speculating.  Folks in S Al. and S. Ga. should be ready for some weather in the near future.


----------



## Matt.M (Jun 24, 2012)

Awesome.  Vacation at Amelia Island just be a little more inside.  

Great-full for the rainfall headed towards GA.


----------



## HUNTER475 (Jun 24, 2012)

M c , draw us a map with your projected path of the storm.  Really. Hope the athens area gets some rain ... We in bad shape!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

HUNTER475 said:


> M c , draw us a map with your projected path of the storm.  Really. Hope the athens area gets some rain ... We in bad shape!



I honestly can't add anything beyond what I've posted here from BP and the NHC.


----------



## snookdoctor (Jun 24, 2012)

I can't remember seeing a forecast track as a circle instead of a cone. I guess that could be a blessing or a curse depending on your area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

snookdoctor said:


> I can't remember seeing a forecast track as a circle instead of a cone. I guess that could be a blessing or a curse depending on your area.



The good news is, Debby is moving slowly, the bad news is, Debby is moving slowly. Why you ask? The floods of 1994 in Ga. come to mind. Let's hope this doesn't happen, but the possibility is there.


----------



## Throwback (Jun 24, 2012)

come on baby drive it home a little farther north!


T


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

Throwback said:


> come on baby drive it home a little farther north!
> 
> 
> T



Unfortunately the current long range GFS models have Debby hanging a right and crossing N. Fl. and S. Ga. keeping us out of the big rains. But that is way too many days out to be reliable. Keep your fingers crossed.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 24, 2012)

Thanks for all the good graphics updates.  

Sounds like the word again for today for Debby is "SLOW". 

Looks like some much needed rain for drought stricken lands, if it will only make it to all that need it so badly.


----------



## DDD (Jun 24, 2012)

You have to like South GA's chance to get some drought relief.  I can take joy in that right now.


----------



## Greene728 (Jun 24, 2012)

Throwback said:


> come on baby drive it home a little farther north!
> 
> 
> T


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jun 24, 2012)

Mandatory evacuation for SGI and other low lying areas of Franklin county. Power out since early this morning. Barge has broken loose and taken out old bridge (fishing pier now) and somehow missed the new bridge and is now drifting towards bridge between Apalachicola and East Point.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jun 24, 2012)

Dustin Pate said:


> Mandatory for SGI and other low lying areas of Franklin county. Power out since early this morning. Barge has broken loose and taken out old bridge (fishing pier now) and somehow missed the new bridge and is now drifting towards bridge between Apalachicola and East Point.


The bridge has been closed as well!! A girl I went to school with has a son trapped on  the island


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 24, 2012)

Dustin Pate said:


> Mandatory evacuation for SGI and other low lying areas of Franklin county. Power out since early this morning. Barge has broken loose and taken out old bridge (fishing pier now) and somehow missed the new bridge and is now drifting towards bridge between Apalachicola and East Point.



Last report I saw is that they could expect seas a good 8 to 10 foot higher than normal, and depending on the tide and location of the storm could expect moderate flooding along the coast.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jun 24, 2012)

I've been locked on twice by choice and almost a third due to a lack of communication with officials. Two weren't bad just because power was on and off for both. But I am glad I left for the third. The island took a beating. Not a fun place with no power. It gets hot real quick!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Last report I saw is that they could expect seas a good 8 to 10 foot higher than normal, and depending on the tide and location of the storm could expect moderate flooding along the coast.



Yep, high turbulent waters continue.


----------



## jcountry (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The good news is, Debby is moving slowly, the bad news is, Debby is moving slowly. Why you ask? The floods of 1994 in Ga. come to mind. Let's hope this doesn't happen, but the possibility is there.



I remember those times.  

Hopefully, it won't happen again, but the next time it does, places like Albany will get flooded every bit as bad.  The flint river gets real bad when it floods.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

We're in a sit and wait mode while Debby makes up her mind what she's going to do. Women!!!




TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.


----------



## StriperAddict (Jun 25, 2012)

LOL!

Yep, the models were all over the place this morning concerning Deb.  Maybe when she makes her mind up she'll dump some more rain this way, esp. N Georgia.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

Just for the record, I'm not buying this tracking forecast for a minute. I think the GFS has it right and that she will slowly drift across Fla. and out into the atlantic and then up the east coast well off shore. But here it is anyway.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jun 25, 2012)

That is amazing how slow she is going.


----------



## DDD (Jun 25, 2012)

Up this way we are not going to get much .... really nothing out of this.

What is more freaking scary is the heat that is showing up a week from now.  Geeze oh Pete.  100+ for days!  

Holy heating and air conditioning!


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 25, 2012)

I hate summer........I hate summer.......I hate summer


----------



## StriperAddict (Jun 25, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> I hate summer........I hate summer.......I hate summer


 
x4 



DDD said:


> 100+ for days!
> 
> Holy heating and air conditioning Batman!


 
Fixed it for ya.  

Fire up them lawn mowers EARLY in the day, folks!


----------



## Greene728 (Jun 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> Up this way we are not going to get much .... really nothing out of this.
> 
> What is more freaking scary is the heat that is showing up a week from now.  Geeze oh Pete.  100+ for days!
> 
> Holy heating and air conditioning!



Crap!!!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just for the record, I'm not buying this tracking forecast for a minute. I think the GFS has it right and that she will slowly drift across Fla. and out into the atlantic and then up the east coast well off shore. But here it is anyway.
> 
> View attachment 673289



Looks like you're right that Debby is going to follow the usual typical track from the Gulf to the Atlantic & up the East Coast according to a new storm track prediction to cross Florida.


----------



## DDD (Jun 25, 2012)

It is amazing what 24 hours can do...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> Up this way we are not going to get much .... really nothing out of this.
> 
> What is more freaking scary is the heat that is showing up a week from now.  Geeze oh Pete.  100+ for days!
> 
> Holy heating and air conditioning!



The good news is, around the end of the second week of July, if the GFS holds true that far out, we are in for boo coo rain in these parts. I mean like days of it...


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We're in a sit and wait mode while Debby makes up her mind what she's going to do. Women!!!
> 
> View attachment 673269
> 
> ...





Miguel Cervantes said:


> The good news is, around the end of the second week of July, if the GFS holds true that far out, we are in for boo coo rain in these parts. I mean like days of it...



Say it aint so!! I am getting berried I mean married that week...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> Say it aint so!! I am getting berried I mean married that week...



Buried / Married, same thing, both require a dress suit. Just one is a reversible commitment, the other isn't...


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Buried / Married, same thing, both require a dress suit. Just one is a reversible commitment, the other isn't...


----------



## DDD (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Buried / Married, same thing, both require a dress suit. Just one is a reversible commitment, the other isn't...



Once Married you are required to drive by every church having a wedding screaming "SUCKER!!!!"


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> Once Married you are required to drive by every church having a wedding screaming "SUCKER!!!!"



You do that also?


----------



## DDD (Jun 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You do that also?



I have the bruises to prove it!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> It is amazing what 24 hours can do...
> 
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml



Cool seeing the 180 degree switch turnaround of the weather model storm track progression. Ya'll post some of the best weather graphics images. Thx.





blood on the ground said:


> Say it aint so!! I am getting berried I mean married that week...



Congrats, I think.  Last decision you'll make on you own unless your future spouse made that one for you, too.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 25, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Cool seeing the 180 degree switch turnaround of the weather model storm track progression. Ya'll post some of the best weather graphics images. Thx.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



uuuhhhh so the 2nd time aint any better  thanks


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 25, 2012)

Tuesday night low 60, Wednesday night low 61..... My kind of weather. The only thing that would make it better is to replace the 6 with a 5...


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 25, 2012)

Whoa, 25-inches of rain expected as storm Debby continues to move SLOWLY. 



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...8730.html?mod=WSJ__MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird 

Stalled Tropical Storm to Soak Florida for Days 

June 25, 2012 


"Florida braced for as much as *25 inches of rain* as Tropical Storm Debby lumbered toward the state's northern Gulf Coast on Monday" 

"Total rainfall is expected to reach *10 to 20 inches across much of northern and central Florida*, with some areas receiving as much as 25 inches, according to the hurricane center." 

"But on Monday, officials at the National Hurricane Center said Debby appeared to settle on a northeastern track, crawling along in the Gulf of Mexico at *5 miles per hour*."


----------



## mudracing101 (Jun 26, 2012)

Great


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jun 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tuesday night low 60, Wednesday night low 61..... My kind of weather. The only thing that would make it better is to replace the 6 with a 5...



HUSH IT! My pool just got to the perfect temp. Don't wanta have ta turn the heater on again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 26, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> HUSH IT! My pool just got to the perfect temp. Don't wanta have ta turn the heater on again.



It'll be well into the 90's today. That pool will feel like a hot tub tonight..


----------



## DDD (Jun 26, 2012)

It will be 101 here in ATL on Friday and 100 on Saturday... I don't think that pool is going to get too cold anytime soon.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jun 26, 2012)

With the breeze today its not so bad on the roof! Up here changing out compressor on a ac unit.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> It will be 101 here in ATL on Friday and 100 on Saturday... I don't think that pool is going to get too cold anytime soon.



She is scared to death that her hula hoop will get brittle...


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jun 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It'll be well into the 90's today. That pool will feel like a hot tub tonight..






DDD said:


> It will be 101 here in ATL on Friday and 100 on Saturday... I don't think that pool is going to get too cold anytime soon.



Sounds good to me!


----------



## DDD (Jun 26, 2012)

Oh yeah...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 27, 2012)

Here's a good educational read on lightning. What causes it, how it works, etc. etc. etc. It's a long read, but very interesting.

It's also something that you might want to be versed on in a couple of weeks.

http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/lightning1.htm


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jun 27, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a good educational read on lightning. What causes it, how it works, etc. etc. etc. It's a long read, but very interesting.
> 
> It's also something that you might want to be versed on in a couple of weeks.
> 
> http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/lightning1.htm



My flux lines are scary bigThats why homey dont play with lightnin! What days should I be taking cover?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 27, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> My flux lines are scary bigThats why homey dont play with lightnin! What days should I be taking cover?



According to the weather models;

This one:



Not this one:



It looks like the heat will be breaking due to some rainy weather around the 11th of July.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jun 28, 2012)

Hugh, is the 11th the soonest we're looking at getting any precipitation? We're trying to time bushhogging close to rain so we don't kill the pastures and if its that far away till we get rain .......


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 28, 2012)

Ouch, it's getting hot.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 28, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Hugh, is the 11th the soonest we're looking at getting any precipitation? We're trying to time bushhogging close to rain so we don't kill the pastures and if its that far away till we get rain .......



Hey Sis, yeah that is the best chance of most certainty. Beginning next Monday we will be souping up a bit and the chances of hit and miss thunderstorms goes up to 20% almost every day leading up to the 11th. I would imagine some of these will be severe with some really nasssssty lightning in them.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jun 28, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey Sis, yeah that is the best chance of most certainty. Beginning next Monday we will be souping up a bit and the chances of hit and miss thunderstorms goes up to 20% almost every day leading up to the 11th. I would imagine some of these will be severe with some really nasssssty lightning in them.



 Well, at least there is some rain in the forecast...

Oh well...not my grass to worry about anyways


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 29, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Well, at least there is some rain in the forecast...
> 
> Oh well...not my grass to worry about anyways



Don't do it today !!!!!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 29, 2012)

Whoa, 118 F degrees in Kansas! 

Saw this web link on the Drudge Report: 



http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/0629/Death-Valley-heat-in-Kansas-How-the-end-of-June-got-so-hot 

Death Valley heat in Kansas? How the end of June got so hot.

Norton Dam, Kan., hit 118 F. on Thursday, and 32 communities from Colorado to Indiana just posted their highest temperatures ever. Forecasters say back-to-back La Niñas are partly to blame.


June 29, 2012









http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-heat-wave-starts-lateweek/67065 

Sweltering Heat Blast for Atlanta, DC, Philly, NYC

Jun 29, 2012


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Jun 30, 2012)

Hearing from friends from Ohio to WV to DC and they really got hit with some severe storms yesterday evening into the night.   Shingles gone, trees down, hail, high winds.   Loss of power.  When this heat breaks I hope we can avoid this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Hearing from friends from Ohio to WV to DC and they really got hit with some severe storms yesterday evening into the night.   Shingles gone, trees down, hail, high winds.   Loss of power.  When this heat breaks I hope we can avoid this.



Don't bet on it. I watched the barometer slowly drop yesterday as the afternoon went on. Everyday will allow it to ease down a little lower, allowing the evaporation / convection process to go even higher and boomers pop up.

There is a good reason I posted the link to "lightning awareness" the other day..

With temps so high, humidity so low, the conversion back to normal (if you can call it that) is going to be violent for some folks.

If I were a gamblin man, looking at the 12 hour charts for today (that is 12 hours from now) The southern portion of Georgia is a powder keg waiting to explode. If you look at the precipitation chart for the same time frame it is empty. If  you look at the CAPE map it is dark dark dark red, the CIN map is only moderately effective in inhibiting lift and the Lifted Index is off the charts for that area. Then we look at the precipitable moisture chart and it is slap loaded up down that way, so the possibility for some good pop up boomers are high. There won't be much movement to them at all, but there will be plenty of volatility to them.

Give me a few and I'll throw the maps I just mentioned up here so you can see what I am talking about.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

When your temps are near the top of the key on this map just being outside will kill you. You don't need severe thunderstorms to do that.


----------



## Throwback (Jun 30, 2012)

the in car temp gauge read 111 at one point in time yesterday when we were around Winchester TN



T


----------



## marknga (Jun 30, 2012)

at 11:15 pm the heat index in Warner Robins was a 103.
Yep 103 at 11:15PM.

My girls are playing Adult league soccer today at noon.... I hope they have medics standing by for some of the older players.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

marknga said:


> at 11:15 pm the heat index in Warner Robins was a 103.
> Yep 103 at 11:15PM.
> 
> My girls are playing Adult league soccer today at noon.... I hope they have medics standing by for some of the older players.



They would be better served to use common sense and postpone or cancel those games. But then common sense seems to be a rare commodity now days.. My child would not be participating due of the ignorance of those running the league.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Hearing from friends from Ohio to WV to DC and they really got hit with some severe storms yesterday evening into the night.   Shingles gone, trees down, hail, high winds.   Loss of power.  When this heat breaks I hope we can avoid this.



Wow, that was a long stretch of major storms. Lots of photos resulting from the storms at the 1st web link below:



http://www.weather.com/news/friday-severe-storms-20120629 

Images, Tweets: Storms Leave Trail of Destruction 

"This image shows storm reports from Friday night.  The blue dots on the Storm Prediction Center map indicate wind damage, and black squares indicate winds of at least 74 mph which is hurricane force."








http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-33816_162-57464335/fierce-storms-leave-2-dead-2m-without-power/ 

Fierce storms leave 2 dead, 2M without power 

June 30, 2012 

"A line of thunderstorms, 100 miles from tip-to-toe, rolled thru the Washington. D.C. area Friday night packing winds of 50-to-80 mph" 

"same clump of storms hit southeastern Ohio and West Virginia with hurricane force winds"



http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...ut-power-to-nearly-2-million/?test=latestnews 

Eastern US storms leave 5 dead and 2 million without power following day of triple-digit temperatures

June 30, 2012 

"Widespread power outages were reported from Indiana to New Jersey, with the bulk of the service interruptions concentrated on Washington, D.C., and the surrounding areas." 

"The storms, sometimes packing 70 mph winds, toppled three tractor trailers on Interstate 75 near Findlay, Ohio." 

"West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin declared a state of emergency after more than 500,000 customers in 27 counties were left without electricity." 

"At least four utility poles fell on a road in Columbus, Ohio, making it too dangerous for people in four cars to get out"


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> View attachment 673935
> 
> View attachment 673936
> 
> ...



Whoa, those graphics images tell a big story.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jun 30, 2012)

Time to hit the river!


----------



## lbzdually (Jun 30, 2012)

Just saw the pictures from Congressional golf club, they got hammered.  As dry as it is, lightning could start fires.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Wow, that was a long stretch of major storms. Lots of photos resulting from the storms at the 1st web link below:



That line of storms was called a Derecho and thus far the death toll is 4 and there are 1.5 million people without power.

Here's a little more info on Derecho's..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

For those of you with kids in outdoor sports. Don't let them play until this heat breaks. That is your only real alternate choice since the organizers of these sports do not have the common sense to cancel them.

That being said, if you don't stop them from playing then be aware of these signs and symptoms;

profuse sweating
lightheadedness
headache
weakness
nausea 
vomiting
muscle cramps

This is known as Heat Exhaustion. If you observe ANY of these symptoms in your child or yourself move them to a cooler climate and hydrate them using cool (not cold) water or a gatorade type drink. If they cannot keep down the liquids due to vomiting call 911 immediately, the will need fluids via IV. 

If you ignore ANY or ALL of these symptoms the next signs you will notice are;

no sweating
skin will be clammy and hot
they will be confused and lethargic
seizures may occur
body temps will reach close to outside temps

This is known as Heat Stroke and if you don't get immediate help via 911 you may have well just killed your child or yourself. 

Congratulations.

Seriously folks, these temps aren't worth the risk and any sports organization putting kids outside under these conditions are idiots and should be held directly liable WHEN not IF injuries occur, because they will under these kind of temperatures and low humidity.


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jun 30, 2012)

*Imby*

At 1130 here in hampton 100 degrees and heat index 107


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That line of storms was called a Derecho and thus far the death toll is 4 and there are 1.5 million people without power.
> 
> Here's a little more info on Derecho's..
> 
> ...



How did you know I was wondering about that "Derecho" word that was kinda haunting me?  You definitely must be a mind reader or something.  I was too lazy to do a web search but you picked a great informative web link.  Thank you, Sir.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Uh-oh, looks like Saturday could bring more concerns.  



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-strong-storms-for-dc-balt/67376 

More Strong Storms For DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia

By Matt Alto, Meteorologist

Jun 30, 2012


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

97 here, heat index is 111 at just passed noon...

Just saw on the news where the death toll from the derecho has risen to 9.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

marknga said:


> at 11:15 pm the heat index in Warner Robins was a 103.
> Yep 103 at 11:15PM.
> 
> My girls are playing Adult league soccer today at noon.... I hope they have medics standing by for some of the older players.



Heat Index is scarey bad for all of Georgia & others. Ya'll be careful out there.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That line of storms was called a Derecho and thus far the death toll is 4 and there are 1.5 million people without power.
> 
> Here's a little more info on Derecho's..
> 
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm



Uh-oh, some are calling yesterday something worse, a *"Super Derecho"*. 



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/deadly-super-derecho-strikes-m/67383 

Deadly *Super Derecho* Strikes Midwest, Mid-Atlantic

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Jun 30, 2012 


"*More than 450 damaging wind reports* were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as the super derecho took roughly 12 hours to race from northern Indiana to the southern mid-Atlantic coast." 

"*Winds gusted to 91 mph* at the Fort Wayne International Airport, Ind., Friday afternoon." 

"As the super derecho maintained its violent nature, an *81 mph gust* was then measured at Tuckerton, on the southern New Jersey coast, early Saturday morning."

"Downed trees dominated the damaging wind reports and *led to the deaths of seven people*."


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Uh-oh, some are calling yesterday something worse, a *"Super Derecho"*.



It's happened before. Here's a great link to the 2009 SD.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may82009page.htm


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jun 30, 2012)

*IMBY.  1pm*

103 and heat index 111


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 30, 2012)

Super Derecho death toll now up to 10.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's happened before. Here's a great link to the 2009 SD.
> 
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may82009page.htm
> 
> ...



Wow, man, just wow. 

Similar area in a line a bit south of yesterdays damaging event.


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jun 30, 2012)

*Imby*

120 pm.   106 and 116 heat index


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Super Derecho death toll now up to 10.



Unfortunately, it's up to 12 now & probably still climbing. 



http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/story/2012-06-30/storms-power-eastern-us/55936366/1 

Heat and storms bring tragedy and misery to the East 


"More than *three million people lost power* after the storms, and *at least 12 people have died*, authorities said." 


<object id="flashObj" width="486" height="412" classid="clsid<param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=1714109025001&playerID=102195605001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAABvaL8JE~,ufBHq_I6Fnyou4pHiM9gbgVQA16tDSWm&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=1714109025001&playerID=102195605001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAABvaL8JE~,ufBHq_I6Fnyou4pHiM9gbgVQA16tDSWm&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" swLiveConnect="true" allowScriptAccess="always" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object>


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Jun 30, 2012)

Last night's storm in time delay.   Moved across at 60 mph.


----------



## trents99 (Jun 30, 2012)

deerhunter75 said:


> 120 pm.   106 and 116 heat index



Since it's kinda my backyard too I'd be interested to see what kind of reading you get around 6-7pm tonight. Seems like we might get a degree or two on top of that 106.


----------



## Battlewagon (Jun 30, 2012)

IMBY

30	16:55	S 8	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	52			17%	NA	104	29.84	NA			
30	16:35	SW 9	10.00	Fair	CLR	108	52			16%	NA	106	29.85	NA			
30	16:15	W 9	10.00	Fair	CLR	108	50			15%	NA	105	29.85	NA			
30	15:55	W 7	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	52			17%	NA	104	29.85	NA			
30	15:35	W 8	10.00	Fair	CLR	108	50			15%	NA	105	29.85	NA			
30	15:15	SW 7	10.00	Fair	CLR	108	52			16%	NA	106	29.86	NA			
30	14:55	E 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	54			18%	NA	105	29.86	NA			
30	14:35	S 6	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	52			17%	NA	104	29.87	NA			
30	14:15	W 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	55			19%	NA	105	29.87	NA			
30	13:55	E 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	106	54			18%	NA	105	29.88	NA			
30	13:35	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	104	54			19%	NA	102	29.88	NA			
30	13:15	W 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	104	55			20%	NA	103	29.89	NA			
30	12:55	N 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	104	55			20%	NA	103	29.90	NA			
30	12:35	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	102	59			24%	NA	102	29.90	NA			
30	12:15	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	100	59			25%	NA	100	29.90	NA			
30	11:55	N 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	99	61			29%	NA	100	29.90	NA			
30	11:35	N 7	10.00	Fair	CLR	99	61			29%	NA	100	29.91	NA			
30	11:15	NW 6	10.00	Fair	CLR	97	63			32%	NA	98	29.90	NA


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jun 30, 2012)

*Imby*

530pm. 108 and H.I.  115


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jun 30, 2012)

*Already there*



trents99 said:


> Since it's kinda my backyard too I'd be interested to see what kind of reading you get around 6-7pm tonight. Seems like we might get a degree or two on top of that 106.




Try 108


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish (Jun 30, 2012)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Last night's storm in time delay.   Moved across at 60 mph.



Whoa, 600-mile path of bad storms is serious bad news.  








Looks like *Atlanta* tied their all time record of 105 F degrees today. 


http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Atlanta+GA+USGA0028:1:US 

*Atlanta* Weather

"Today's High was *105°F at 4:45pm* when conditions were Sunny" 



EDIT:  WSB Ch. 2 & 11Alive & Fox 5 TV Atlanta weather news reported *106°F* all-time record high temp for Atlanta today. 


http://www.11alive.com/weather/ 

Atlanta Weather

June 30, 2012 

Today-Sunny and hot.  *High temp up to 106.*  That would be a record for today's date and an all time record high for the city of *Atlanta*. 



http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/metro-atlanta-braces-saturday-scorcher/nPjZZ/ 

Record-high temp set at 106 degrees 

Saturday, June 30, 2012 


ATLANTA â€” A record-high temperature of 106 degrees was set in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon.

Atlanta's 106-degree temperature breaks the capital city's all-time-high temperature set in 1980, according to an official report. 



http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/18923516/the-hottest-day 

All records broken as Atlanta hits hottest day ever

June 30, 2012 


"Saturday officially became the hottest day ever recorded in Atlanta surpassing the 32-year record of 105 just before 4 p.m."


----------



## savreds (Jun 30, 2012)

97 with a heat index of 113 @ 6:00 on da coast!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jun 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Super Derecho death toll now up to 10.



My buddy sent me video he took just as storm hit from his front porch in WV.

 I would share it, but language gets a bit wild as it hits, but it was something to see....

 They are still without power with not a real good eta on getting it back.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jul 1, 2012)

MC we are having one heck of a storm here in Bonaire right now!  Tons of rain and some intense lightning!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Jul 1, 2012)

We had some golfball sized hail a couple of hours ago.


----------



## crappiedex (Jul 1, 2012)

Strong winds with lightning and a little rain in Dexter.


----------



## T.P. (Jul 1, 2012)

crappiedex said:


> Strong winds with lightning and a little rain in Dexter.



Ditto in Carnesville, Ga.


----------



## Keebs (Jul 1, 2012)

WIND, thunder & RAIN here!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jul 1, 2012)

Keebs said:


> WIND, thunder & RAIN here!!!!!!!!!



Yeah, see post #969 and pretend it was for today and not yesterday...


----------

