# ***General Discussion Weather Thread #3 ***



## Miguel Cervantes

Nothing to talk about really, unless wearing short pants for Christmas is a conversation topic for you.


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## smokey30725




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## Greene728

smokey30725 said:


>


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## NE GA Pappy

We want snow! We want snow! We want snow!


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## blood on the ground

Bring on August....... I'm ready for 100f and a 100% humidity


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## Greene728

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on August....... I'm ready for 100f and a 100% humidity


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## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all need professional help.


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## Lukikus2

I've yet to see a 12 hr forecast that was on the money.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Lukikus2 said:


> I've yet to see a 12 hr forecast that was on the money.



What currency are you going by?


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## Crakajak

I hate wearing short sleeves and bermuda shorts on Christmas


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## blood on the ground

Crakajak said:


> I hate wearing short sleeves and bermuda shorts on Christmas



Take it off!


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## NCHillbilly

Bring on April.


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## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nothing to talk about really, unless wearing short pants for Christmas is a conversation topic for you.



If you are wearing your capri pants, we are going to talk.


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## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> Bring on April.



I'm sure you are ready..... It just like April here today! Cool mornings and very mild afternoons for the next several days!


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## Lukikus2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What currency are you going by?



Evidently they are going by peso's. Our warming trend consisted of high's in the 60's and 48* yesterday morning. No one called it even 12 hrs prior. And what's the deal with the low pressure system that formed in the Atlantic that moved south? I don't recall seeing that very often.

Anyway. High of 82* for Christmas in the 34748. I'll be in shorts. 

Merry Christmas ya'll


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## smokey30725

This stinks


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## 1eyefishing

Don't worry...


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## Greene728

blood on the ground said:


> I'm sure you are ready..... It just like April here today! Cool mornings and very mild afternoons for the next several days!



I'm loving it!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Lukikus2 said:


> Evidently they are going by peso's. Our warming trend consisted of high's in the 60's and 48* yesterday morning. No one called it even 12 hrs prior. And what's the deal with the low pressure system that formed in the Atlantic that moved south? I don't recall seeing that very often.
> 
> Anyway. High of 82* for Christmas in the 34748. I'll be in shorts.
> 
> Merry Christmas ya'll



On the plus side, the bass oughta be bitin good where you're at.


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## Cmp1

blood on the ground said:


> I'm sure you are ready..... It just like April here today! Cool mornings and very mild afternoons for the next several days!



Kinda feels like early April here this AM,,,, 33deg no wind,,,, gotta about 3in last night,,,, heavy wet snow,,,, hard to plow,,,, a couple pics from this AM,,,,


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## blood on the ground

Cmp1 said:


> Kinda feels like early April here this AM,,,, 33deg no wind,,,, gotta about 3in last night,,,, heavy wet snow,,,, hard to plow,,,, a couple pics from this AM,,,,



Looks beautiful! Merry Christmas and thanks for posting the picture!


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## Cmp1

blood on the ground said:


> Looks beautiful! Merry Christmas and thanks for posting the picture!



Merry Christmas blood,,,, to you and your family,,,, tried to PM you,,,, something strange came up,,,, I'll try again,,,,


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## GA DAWG

Where is DDD and where is winter?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Santa brought me my weather station. 

Still some bugs to work out but you guys can view it on your smart phones.

Go here and follow the instructions.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=888712


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## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Santa brought me my weather station.
> 
> Still some bugs to work out but you guys can view it on your smart phones.
> 
> Go here and follow the instructions.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=888712



Which model did you get?  Santa also brought me a weather station. I have yet to connect mine to the PC for app access  though.


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## blood on the ground

I'd like for it to get pipe freezing cold for about 2 weeks!


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## Greene728

blood on the ground said:


> I'd like for it to get pipe freezing cold for about 2 weeks!



Not gonna happen any time soon it appears!


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## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> Which model did you get?  Santa also brought me a weather station. I have yet to connect mine to the PC for app access  though.



Acurite 5 in 1 from Costco. 
Linking live is a pain, or was. It's been stable for over 12 hours now so maybe I killed all of the bugs.


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## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> Which model did you get?  Santa also brought me a weather station. I have yet to connect mine to the PC for app access  though.


Ours are similar sort of. 
Here's what I've got set up and running smoothly now that I've found where all of the anomalies were hiding.


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## jbird1

I received the Acu-rite 5 in 1 for  a gift as well.  I don't believe mine has any linking capability though.  I gotta steal a minute to throw it up on a post here soon.  I'm hoping the signal doesn't interfere with the smaller sensor I've been running for the past several years.  I would like to keep it running as well.


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## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> I received the Acu-rite 5 in 1 for  a gift as well.  I don't believe mine has any linking capability though.  I gotta steal a minute to throw it up on a post here soon.  I'm hoping the signal doesn't interfere with the smaller sensor I've been running for the past several years.  I would like to keep it running as well.



I never realized how many different models of this 5 in 1 there were. This one I have apparently is made just for Costco. When it kicks the bucket I'll save my greenbacks for a Davis, or something that will communicate via WiFi and not need a dedicated server / computer to function online.


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## Miguel Cervantes

January 6-7th
January 22-23rd

Remember those dates.


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## Mountainbuck




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## NCHillbilly

Snow in the forecast here tomorrow night. Of course.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Snow in the forecast here tomorrow night. Of course.



Send some down this way. We're wet but way too warm.


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## Mountainbuck

Local met mentioned he is watching 6-7


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## Miguel Cervantes

Mountainbuck said:


> Local met mentioned he is watching 6-7



Took him long enough...


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## Mountainbuck

Haha. Exciting, maybe something will come together for us this winter


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## malak05

Finally some swings in the pattern that could leak some cold air and moisture in together


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## shakey gizzard

Looking good for the 5th!


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## malak05

Still a good ways out but definitely been some flirting on the some models past few days for that 6th thru 9th period.

A couple of more days with runs like this we will have Triple D in here reporting we may actually be chasing the white whale for that period.


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## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> January 6-7th
> January 22-23rd
> 
> Remember those dates.



Finally. Been waiting on you and Trip to post something like this for months... 

Took long enough


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## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> January 6-7th
> January 22-23rd
> 
> Remember those dates.





January 6-7 would be perfect for us down here. A foot of snow while I`m primitive camping in my tipi would fit right in. Bring it.


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## turkeyhunter835

You have my attention sir!


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## smokey30725

Leg tingle!!!!


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## SGADawg

Got a guided quail hunt scheduled for me and my boys tomorrow morning down near Valdosta. Anyone got a good forecast. Weather channel and WeatherBug vary widely on forecast.  Thanks in advance.


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## 3ringer

Miguel Cervantes said:


> January 6-7th
> January 22-23rd
> 
> Remember those dates.



Does these dates involve bread and milk ?


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## Mountainbuck




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## tcward

Miguel Cervantes said:


> January 6-7th
> January 22-23rd
> 
> Remember those dates.



Turn this into a winter weather thread!


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## snarlinbear

Have I become lost in transistor cyber land or did DDD's site disappear?


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## NCHillbilly

Winter weather advisory here tonight for 2-3" of cursed white stuff with 50mph wind gusts. I headed south for the weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Paging DDD, Paging Mr. DDD. You are needed at the GON Weather Discussion page.


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## blood on the ground

Bermuda grass is greening up nicely ... Supposed to be 81 and low humidity today and tomorrow in the 30132!


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## gobbleinwoods

blood on the ground said:


> Bermuda grass is greening up nicely ... Supposed to be 81 and low humidity today and tomorrow in the 30132!



noticed green in the bermuda yesterday.   It is Dec isn't it?


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## Patriot44

Not only Bermuda, but my maple trees are blooming, just like last year.


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## blood on the ground

gobbleinwoods said:


> noticed green in the bermuda yesterday.   It is Dec isn't it?





Patriot44 said:


> Not only Bermuda, but my maple trees are blooming, just like last year.



Dang! I was kidding.... But I rarely see my yard in the daylight! It has been warm but nothing like last winter! It was 78 the day after Christmas a year ago!


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## Mountainbuck

Refreshing every 5 min!


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## Buckfever 2

Me too !! LOL


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## malak05

Waiting for the 12z model run's today but for a period of several days now the GFS/Euro models seem to be spitting out a multitude of solutions that point to opportunities for Winter weather in that 7th thru 9th window for parts of the SE. Truthfully thru Sunday the thought should be that the pattern holds and they continue to show the threat and don't get wrapped up too much in details of where and how much... Monday if still on table the finer details can start being explored on if it's gonna be a Miller A, Hybrid, Miller B type storm and all that jazz


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## Mountainbuck

Not reading positive things on twitter for Georgia being included???


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## Greene728

As many here do, I faithfully follow James Spann out of Birmingham. I know it's Alabama, but as DDD and MC both have said, you can generally just take what he says and shift it east some and just know the timing may be off some. 
But one of the reasons I have for following Spann is because he is honest. Brutally honest most of the time. Here is a really good link from Spann this morning that I just thought I'd share that reinforces what our local experts are always telling us. 
For those of you into weather like myself, I highly recommend adding Spann and his team to your weather reading. Especially the blogs as he does a fantastic job of breaking things down and making it understandable. I have learned a great deal over there reading the blogs that often times also includes West and North GA. 

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=109501


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## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I never realized how many different models of this 5 in 1 there were. This one I have apparently is made just for Costco. When it kicks the bucket I'll save my greenbacks for a Davis, or something that will communicate via WiFi and not need a dedicated server / computer to function online.



Mine is the made for B.J.'s model #00511...no fancy ticker at the bottom of the display and no pc compatibility.  It says we got .30 inches of rain last night...pretty neat to finally measure rain here at the house.  The temperature is a degree or two off from my other sensor though so I may have to calibrate it.  I'm looking forward to see how it handles the upcoming winter weather threats.


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## turkeyhunter835

Come on white stuff


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## keithsto

blood on the ground said:


> Bermuda grass is greening up nicely ... Supposed to be 81 and low humidity today and tomorrow in the 30132!



You sure it ain't ryegrass you are seeing?  My perennial rye greened up within the past few weeks.


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## RinggoldGa

I'll pretty much guarantee snow in NW Ga next weekend.  Why?  Because I won't be there and I love the snow.  

Odds are good the only snow we get all winter will be the one weekend  I'm not at home.   Headed to sylvania to hunt for the weekend and looks like it may be awful cold and wet there.


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## blood on the ground

keithsto said:


> You sure it ain't ryegrass you are seeing?  My perennial rye greened up within the past few weeks.


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## keithsto

blood on the ground said:


>



I didn't see your just kiddin post till after. Lol.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> As many here do, I faithfully follow James Spann out of Birmingham. I know it's Alabama, but as DDD and MC both have said, you can generally just take what he says and shift it east some and just know the timing may be off some.
> But one of the reasons I have for following Spann is because he is honest. Brutally honest most of the time. Here is a really good link from Spann this morning that I just thought I'd share that reinforces what our local experts are always telling us.
> For those of you into weather like myself, I highly recommend adding Spann and his team to your weather reading. Especially the blogs as he does a fantastic job of breaking things down and making it understandable. I have learned a great deal over there reading the blogs that often times also includes West and North GA.
> 
> http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=109501



Spann is an amazing Meteorologists. 

FWIW, the damage in Jackson County this morning was an EF-1 Tornado. 

I now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.


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## Mountainbuck

Well 30 yr local met out of Chattanooga said next weekend could get very interesting! Never seen him mention something this far out, ever! Normally he is very reserved and will not mention the S word unless we're 48 hrs out


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## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> Well 30 yr local met out of Chattanooga said next weekend could get very interesting! Never seen him mention something this far out, ever! Normally he is very reserved and will not mention the S word unless we're 48 hrs out



The reason everyone is hyping this storm is because both the EURO and the GFS have it in some form or shape.  Latest GFS clown map is posted below.  Take it with a grain of salt.

I am personally not excited about the chances except for extreme NW and NE GA mountains.  

This is cold chasing moisture and what we in the weather world call a "Southern Slider".  Typically Southern Sliders are very positively tilted and are starved for moisture in our area.  The system gets "strung out".

Dallas, TX will have 4-6" and upper parts of North Carolina will have 4" and it will get spread thin between those two locations.

Could it change and surprise me?  Absolutely, but don't think that this system is going to do something amazing.  What will be the question marks will be where will it lay down a dusting of snow and where will it bust.


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## DCHunter

blood on the ground said:


> Bermuda grass is greening up nicely ... Supposed to be 81 and low humidity today and tomorrow in the 30132!



It's still a little too cool for bermuda to be greening up. Are you sure it's not weeds that you're seeing?


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## turkeyhunter835




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## malak05

Still 8 days or so out from this event so alot still is up in the air at this range. Sunday afternoon models may give a little better idea on exactly what this system may do not without reason the whole solution could swing a bunch of different ways... I guess from a optimist prospective you could confide that both models for awhile now have shown cold air/moisture in the same arena for most of this weeks model runs. 

At least we got something to talk about for the next 3-4 days to see just where this is going from here nobody should be getting any grand hopes up though


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## DDD

The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.  Let's go watch some football.


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## smokey30725

Any late night updates from the weather prognosticators?


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## Rockdale Buck

We got a storm


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## ryork

Had a little sleet shower for about 15 min here in the 30110 around 10:45 as the first precip to reach the ground moved in. Just light sprinkles of rain now.


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## ryork

Sleeting again


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## malak05

Still throwing solutions with minor adjustments which make all sort of differences. The models have for awhile now been spitting out some LP and cold air in same ballpark next week but the solutions are across board for hardly anything like Triple December pointed out yesterday  to the 0z GFS and Euro last night which were definitely more traditional alignments to winter weather for parts of SE including GA. Still plenty of time for a better idea to be locked down.  Like he said the GFS gives and the GFS takes away and back again haha


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## parisinthe20s

A little bit of a rainy mix in holly springs, off and on. I hope we get at least one snow day this year.


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## jbird1

Light sleet falling at the Forsyth-Dawson line.


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## telco guy

Sleet in Covington


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## Hornet22

Sleeting and cold rain at daCafe'356. Thank gawd I got milk an bread this morning at Aldi


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## EricWS

Snowing in Cleveland


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## smokey30725

I was working up in Soddy Daisy, TN this morning and it snowed for a bit before turning back to freezing rain.


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## Dustin Pate

Was on Westpoint lake all day and it sleeted the better part of the day. Pretty raw day.


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## ryork

Do any good?


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## Miguel Cervantes

I'm horrible at saving posts I make about the weather. But early on I did say this year the setup for ice would be favorable. 

With that said, and with DDD showing snow becoming less likely for next weekend, he didn't say anything about ice.


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## gobbleinwoods

You are not a harbinger of good news with this information.


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## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> You are not a harbinger of good news with this information.



Good news is not in my contract with Elfiii.


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## Mountainbuck

Look at the tn valley on that image! Missing out on all the fun


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## blood on the ground

Move it west to the state line and park it for a week!


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## shakey gizzard

smokey30725 said:


> I was working up in Soddy Daisy, TN this morning and it snowed for a bit before turning back to freezing rain.



Hoping to get the last hunt of the year in some snow! NOT Ice! I'll be just outside of McMinnville.


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## fountain

Were too far south for any snow, but the 6&7 were holding a good chance for rain...now it's gone


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## malak05

Well 12z GFS was interesting to say least, let's hope this isn't something it settles in on in next couple of days...


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## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Well 12z GFS was interesting to say least, let's hope this isn't something it settles in on in next couple of days...



It definitely bucks the PM trend for the GFS model. 

For those of you that don't think .25" of ice is a big deal. 

It is. 

http://earthsky.org/earth/all-about-freezing-rain


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## Mountainbuck

Woah


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## Dustin Pate

ryork said:


> Do any good?



Handful of small stripes and whites. Never marked any giant schools like I hoped for. Small schools and they were moving quick.


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## Rockdale Buck

18z just went nuts


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## Rockdale Buck

I'm sure DDD will be in here soon. BIG storm potential


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## Mountainbuck

Have y'all seen his last tweet &#55357;&#56833;


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## turkeyhunter835

Mountainbuck said:


> Have y'all seen his last tweet ��



Just seen it...


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## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> I'm sure DDD will be in here soon. BIG storm potential



In da house... it's show time...


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## DDD

To try and keep things separated I will do the write up in the MetShack and then be back here to chew the fat.


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## Trigabby

I saw it... I hope it's not another waffle... I'd rather it be the whole enchilada!!!


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## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> To try and keep things separated I will do the write up in the MetShack and then be back here to chew the fat.


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## turkeyhunter835

mrs. hornet22 said:


>



Got any extra???


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## Trigabby

Oh, dang.. That might be mostly ZR.  Not good...


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## DDD

Post is up in the Met Shack.


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## turkeyhunter835

How many days out can u really pin point what will happen??


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## DDD

turkeyhunter835 said:


> How many days out can u really pin point what will happen??



2.  Maybe.


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## Head East

Thanks tripleD! I think I need to spend the day getting the genset ready for winter.

I deleted the weather app a month ago.


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## DDD

turkeyhunter835 said:


> How many days out can u really pin point what will happen??



I have seen 72 hour forecast just BUST completely.  Heck,  most of the time the details change as the stuff is falling out of the sky.

But to have a "general" idea I usually only feel good 3 days out.

72 hours will help the modeling A LOT!!!


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## Nicodemus

We`ll be pre 1840 primitive camping starting Friday. Bring on the cold. My tipi has central heat.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Rockdale Buck said:


> 18z just went nuts



Yes it did.


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## NE GA Pappy

Nicodemus said:


> We`ll be pre 1840 primitive camping starting Friday. Bring on the cold. My tipi has central heat.



does that mean the fire is built in the center of the tent?


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## Nicodemus

NE GA Pappy said:


> does that mean the fire is built in the center of the tent?




Yep.  And it don`t take much fire to keep it pleasant in there either, not matter how cold it gets or how hard the wind blows.


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## DDD

Nicodemus said:


> We`ll be pre 1840 primitive camping starting Friday. Bring on the cold. My tipi has central heat.



Albany will probably just be cold and wet.


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## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Albany will probably just be cold and wet.





Thanks 3D. We can always hope.


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## smokey30725

I just hollered at the beagles that it's dancing time!!


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## DDD

A lot more rain coming over the next 48 hours.  Much needed I might add.


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## deerhuntingdawg

Yep and it's pouring in Thomson right now! Love it


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## Heathen

Can you post the l8nk for your Blog DDD?


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## hmaddox

What is the Met Shack?


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## NE GA Pappy

hmaddox said:


> What is the Met Shack?



it is a subforum on here.  Go back to the campfire home page and scroll down to it.


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## turkeyhunter835

NE GA Pappy said:


> it is a subforum on here.  Go back to the campfire home page and scroll down to it.



Go back to the around the campfire sub forum, and look at the top of the page!


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## malak05

Well 0z GFS is running will it continue to home in on the setup or be something completely different. We are out of 10 day fantasy land and now in 5 model watching mode gonna be some late nights


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## ryork

The amount of freezing rain being shown this morning roughly along I-20 and southward for 60-75 miles is downright scary *IF* it were to actually play out that way. 

Just got back from the Hilton Head area and the amount of tree debris being moved three months later was insane. This would be similar at least I would expect. Wouldn't mind seeing a nice snowfall, but that can stay away.


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## Miguel Cervantes

ryork said:


> The amount of freezing rain being shown this morning roughly along I-20 and southward for 60-75 miles is downright scary *IF* it were to actually play out that way.
> 
> Just got back from the Hilton Head area and the amount of tree debris being moved three months later was insane. This would be similar at least I would expect. Wouldn't mind seeing a nice snowfall, but that can stay away.



It's worse than that. Of course this is a 6 hour old model, waiting on the 12z run, but I was curious as to why the freezing rain had shifted to central Ga. So I looked at the total snowfall map on the GFS and it hammered everything north of the ice with heavy levels of snow!

Still not sold on this GFS solution and waiting on the NAM to come in range tomorrow, but the consistency of solutions from run to run is cause for concern with the GFS.

The take away from this, regardless of what happens, is you'd better be getting that firewood if you don't have a good supply, or the generator, or making plans for sheltering with someone that has the means to stay warm when the power goes off for a few days and the temps outside are nasty cold.


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## Miguel Cervantes

A note about the potential for severe weather today.

Don't ignore it.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10537773#post10537773


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## Rockdale Buck

That ice would be devistating


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## Water Swat

Milk sammiches time.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Water Swat said:


> Milk sammiches time.



Not yet, but keep your car keys nearby. 

If the NWS and local mets start talking about this look for gas prices to start going up too. Especially Diesel and Kerosene.


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## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's worse than that. Of course this is a 6 hour old model, waiting on the 12z run, but I was curious as to why the freezing rain had shifted to central Ga. So I looked at the total snowfall map on the GFS and it hammered everything north of the ice with heavy levels of snow!
> 
> Still not sold on this GFS solution and waiting on the NAM to come in range tomorrow, but the consistency of solutions from run to run is cause for concern with the GFS.
> 
> The take away from this, regardless of what happens, is you'd better be getting that firewood if you don't have a good supply, or the generator, or making plans for sheltering with someone that has the means to stay warm when the power goes off for a few days and the temps outside are nasty cold.



I hope this is wrong for central GA


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## malak05

Well I'm suspended in a thought of excitement and fear by Wednesday I may be in full prep mode.


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## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> I hope this is wrong for central GA



I hope it is wrong for anywhere. 1" of ice would make areas it occurs in look like a war zone and recovery would take weeks if not longer.

Here's a glimpse into what 1" + can do (30mm)

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2013/12/23/worst-ice-storm-in-toronto-memory-moving-through-eastern-canada/


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's what Weatherspark.com says about the coming weather for my area. The forecast says it will also warm up to 46° on Friday and turn back into rain then turn back into snow after midnight. I've got bad news for them. We get frozen precip on the ground in any good quantity prior to sunrise on Friday, it's going to keep on coming down that way, or turn into freezing rain on top of it, A La 1970's big ice event.


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## GA DAWG

So I shouldn't head south for the last weekend or what?


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## turkeyhunter835

Wow


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## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's what Weatherspark.com says about the coming weather for my area. The forecast says it will also warm up to 46° on Friday and turn back into rain then turn back into snow after midnight. I've got bad news for them. We get frozen precip on the ground in any good quantity prior to sunrise on Friday, it's going to keep on coming down that way, or turn into freezing rain on top of it, A La 1970's big ice event.



They never figure in evaporational cooling.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> So I shouldn't head south for the last weekend or what?



Depends on how far south you were planning on heading


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## malak05

12z GFS running...


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## adavis

*Good news...*



malak05 said:


> 12z GFS running...


Give us some good news!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

adavis said:


> Give us some good news!!



What is your definition of good news in the Winter WX environment?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Up to the 96 hour mark and looking good so far. Maybe it finally got an algorithm adjustment.


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## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What is your definition of good news in the Winter WX environment?



Snow not ice would be a better forecast.


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## turkeyhunter835

We need info lol


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## adavis

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What is your definition of good news in the Winter WX environment?



Snow! Lots of it. So the...ummm.. kids can play. Ice can stay away!


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## ryork

Looks like the GFS is holding serve.........for now


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## Greene728

Waiting...


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## Rockdale Buck

12z might be the biggest snow map I have ever seen in my life!!!!!


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## Rockdale Buck

Biblical


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## Rockdale Buck

Sorry for ramping on but that was the most beautiful model run I've ever seen


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## ryork

I'm no expert at this, but I think a lot of what that snowfall accumulation map you're referencing would actually be freezing rain/sleet.


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## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> Sorry for ramping on but that was the most beautiful model run I've ever seen



I don't even know where to begin.


----------



## Milkman

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hope it is wrong for anywhere. 1" of ice would make areas it occurs in look like a war zone and recovery would take weeks if not longer.
> 
> Here's a glimpse into what 1" + can do (30mm)
> 
> http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2013/12/23/worst-ice-storm-in-toronto-memory-moving-through-eastern-canada/



Its all in the definition of recovery IMO. I agree regarding road clearing, power line rebuilding, etc. possibly taking weeks. However, For those who own timber land it could be a great financial loss.  Pine trees by the millions would likely have the tops broken out, which means a dead tree.


----------



## DDD

ryork said:


> I'm no expert at this, but I think a lot of what that snowfall accumulation map you're referencing would actually be freezing rain/sleet.



Yes and no.  

How it it currently modeled there will be a line where there is Ice, a mix of the 2 and then all snow.

But when it's showing 16" in the mountains... that's crazy.  I have to dig into the panels and look at just how cold the layers are.


----------



## JonathanG2013

I hope we get snow. I would also hate for it start snowing around like 10AM Friday and everyone get stuck again. Do not want to spend 9 hours getting home again. Ice would be bad for all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Rockdale Buck said:


> Sorry for ramping on but that was the most beautiful model run I've ever seen



Until you look at the freezing rain model. Then it becomes ugly. Very very ugly. 

I'm too depressed to even consider it as a viable forecast. 

I'll let DDD ride that pony. 

I'm going to defer to the NAM for any further ramblings on this weekend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Yes and no.
> 
> How it it currently modeled there will be a line where there is Ice, a mix of the 2 and then all snow.
> 
> But when it's showing 16" in the mountains... that's crazy.  I have to dig into the panels and look at just how cold the layers are.



Last time I looked it was bone chilling from surface up through 500 mb. Which means it would start as freezing rain with the underlying surface cold and mid level warm rain, then transition to snow, further loading down the ice laden assets. 

But that is just the GFS. I refuse to believe that as my reality.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hope it is wrong for anywhere. 1" of ice would make areas it occurs in look like a war zone and recovery would take weeks if not longer.
> 
> Here's a glimpse into what 1" + can do (30mm)
> 
> http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2013/12/23/worst-ice-storm-in-toronto-memory-moving-through-eastern-canada/


We just went through it here three years ago. I had to drive around trees and PWL's to get my MIL from Gibson. They had over an inch of accretion down there. We were lucky to get mostly sleet...


----------



## DDD

Let's keep it real, this is the SE, nothing ever goes as planned, I think that's why I chase it like I do. 

DO NOT take any of these amount maps at face value. Is there winter weather inbound?  Yes.  

Snowmegedon?  I am not ready to buy into that just yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Let's keep it real, this is the SE, nothing ever goes as planned, I think that's why I chase it like I do.
> 
> DO NOT take any of these amount maps at face value. Is there winter weather inbound?  Yes.
> 
> Snowmegedon?  I am not ready to buy into that just yet.


Not until it goes on sale at least.


----------



## malak05

Without posting much maps much myself the 12z GFS holds serve as stated and produces another big run with freezing rain, snow... CMC had similarities all be it a little less totals, and Euro been in ballpark as well but if all these start coming together soon look out


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Without posting much maps much myself the 12z GFS holds serve as stated and produces another big run with freezing rain, snow... CMC had similarities all be it a little less totals, and Euro been in ballpark as well but if all these start coming together soon look out



Last Euro run I looked at was cold and dry. Is that still holding?


----------



## ryork

Some crazy cold temps being shown on that GFS model immediately following that event with the snow pack/ice etc. If something even close to that freezing rain scenario being shown comes to fruition, that's going to be a miserable situation for a bunch of folks.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Have mercy.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Last Euro run I looked at was cold and dry. Is that still holding?



No.  I can see the EURO maps.  I bit the bullet.  It's snow but in the 1-3" range depending on location.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Have mercy.



While I agree, it's not accounting for sleet and freezing rain.


----------



## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Last Euro run I looked at was cold and dry. Is that still holding?



Of course since not forking much money over for full access to Euro, from what I have access too it shows similarities as far as cold but shows moisture suppressed instead of expanding rain shield, if that's suppression is model bias or over forecast you would have same type of action from it as CMC and GFS... suppression is what keeps it drier euro and CMC are similar on last runs I heard


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> No.  I can see the EURO maps.  *I bit the bullet.*  It's snow but in the 1-3" range depending on location.



Gnawed at you like a termite in moist wood didn't it?


----------



## DDD

miguel cervantes said:


> gnawed at you like a termite in moist wood didn't it?


----------



## RinggoldGa

edited-DDD already answered.


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> edited-DDD already answered.




12z euro I believe starts running around 1pm ish the 0z model run I believe is the one Triple D referneced


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> While I agree, it's not accounting for sleet and freezing rain.



Y'all keep that down your way.

But I'm testing both generators today just in case.

Looks like my weekend hunt in Screven county is in jeopardy.


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> 12z euro I believe starts running around 1pm ish the 0z model run I believe is the one Triple D referneced



That's correct.  Should start running about 1PM.  

It's hard not to get excited about this potential but I am like Miguel, let it get within 72 hours and then I can get more confident.  Confidence is growing however.


----------



## Casey81

Fade confidence fade.


----------



## DDD

I am typing up an update that I will post before the EURO in the Metshack.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Oh boy, the suspense is killing me. Snow would be lovely, ice not so much. I hope we get more than last year, that was a bust. Though, something is better than nothing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Y'all keep that down your way.
> 
> But I'm testing both generators today just in case.
> 
> Looks like my weekend hunt in Screven county is in jeopardy.



I think it's time to start drawing custom guestimation maps, just in case it happens so one of us can say we were right...... 

Here's mine, but I don't believe a single line on it.


----------



## DDD

Post is up in the met shack.  Go read it please.  EURO is up shortly.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I just saw Nitz open his mouth attempting to size it for his foot on Twitter. 

Though I'm not a pro, I would never discount this incoming system this early out with no more data than we have thus far.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I just saw Nitz open his mouth attempting to size it for his foot on Twitter.
> 
> Though I'm not a pro, I would never discount this incoming system this early out with no more data than we have thus far.



Like I said in my post, I am skeptical as anyone.  Lets' be honest, the GFS is the most agressive, the CMC is in the middle and the EURO is thinking about it.


----------



## fountain

If I'm looking a it right, central ga should be clear if the icing, right?


----------



## DDD

EURO is running...


----------



## DDD

fountain said:


> If I'm looking a it right, central ga should be clear if the icing, right?



Negative.  It could as far south as Macon, but that obviously remains to be seen.


----------



## whitetaco02

Fyi


----------



## whitetaco02

Also, the lightening and thunder this morning was unreal!  Unlike anything I have ever seen here in Bonaire.


----------



## DDD

The EURO keeps killing the moisture that the GFS does not.  They are on two separate islands.  

If you blend them together you end up with an ice to light snow event.  It would be a winter weather event, just not a blockbuster storm.

Making my hair fall out.


----------



## Greene728

I'm for a cold rain!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> The EURO keeps killing the moisture that the GFS does not.  They are on two separate islands.
> 
> If you blend them together you end up with an ice to light snow event.  It would be a winter weather event, just not a blockbuster storm.
> 
> Making my hair fall out.



Why do you think I shave my head this time of year?


----------



## malak05

Interesting all 3 models to show a winter event for central GA and North GA with variables. I would say confidence is some winter weather this weekend at this point so be pretty healthy but amounts and impact still being fleshed out


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think it's time to start drawing custom guestimation maps, just in case it happens so one of us can say we were right......
> 
> Here's mine, but I don't believe a single line on it.



I don't like this map for Mcduffie County?
I hope your way off lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> I don't like this map for Mcduffie County?
> I hope your way off lol


----------



## whitetaco02

MC, got some tornado warnings around the Laurens County area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

whitetaco02 said:


> MC, got some tornado warnings around the Laurens County area.



You sure about that?


> 926
> WUUS52 KFFC 021952
> SVRFFC
> GAC167-022015-
> /O.NEW.KFFC.SV.W.0001.170102T1952Z-170102T2015Z/
> 
> BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
> Severe Thunderstorm Warning
> National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
> 252 PM EST MON JAN 2 2017
> 
> The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a
> 
> * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
> Central Johnson County in east central Georgia...
> 
> * Until 315 PM EST
> 
> * At 251 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lovett, or 7
> miles south of Wrightsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.
> 
> HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and tornado possible.
> 
> SOURCE...Radar indicated.



I did see what you were talking about, but they were short lived. The good stuff hasn't gotten here yet.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Local met flipping and flopping back and forth. Now he he is calling for a few flurries around Friday night hahahah.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mountainbuck said:


> Local met flipping and flopping back and forth. Now he he is calling for a few flurries around Friday night hahahah.



They have learned to play it safe, but not too safe, in Georgia. It is a tough state to nail down for Winter events.


----------



## whitetaco02

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You sure about that?
> 
> 
> I did see what you were talking about, but they were short lived. The good stuff hasn't gotten here yet.



Local Mets were saying there was rotation and to keep an eye out.  They did label it as a tornado warning though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

whitetaco02 said:


> Local Mets were saying there was rotation and to keep an eye out.  They did label it as a tornado warning though.



Yes, when you have rotation you have no choice because this time of year they are bounce and goes. Little if no warning, so being overly cautious is a plus. Problem is, I'd be willing to bet 90% of the population doesn't have a weather radio or an app downloaded that will alert them as soon as the warning goes out. 

It is just too inconvenient for today's society to be bothered by such pesky little things.


----------



## whitetaco02

lol


----------



## orrb

What day is this supposed to be hitting.


----------



## Greene728

orrb said:


> What day is this supposed to be hitting, IF it does.




Your gonna get a lashing from either MC or DDD!


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, when you have rotation you have no choice because this time of year they are bounce and goes. Little if no warning, so being overly cautious is a plus. Problem is, I'd be willing to bet 90% of the population doesn't have a weather radio or an app downloaded that will alert them as soon as the warning goes out.
> 
> It is just too inconvenient for today's society to be bothered by such pesky little things.



Wrong!!! Lol ha ha... I still have one of them little annoying black boxes that goes off every wendsday to do a 'test'... love it!!!!


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Greene728 said:


> Your gonna get a lashing from either MC or DDD!



Don't use that ugly word 'if'.... 'when' is a better word to use (if it's snow of course)


----------



## ryork

I like that GFS run much better!!  All snow and no freezing rain for Haralson County......


----------



## malak05

18z GFS Continues snowy trend for weekend, minor track adjustments this run create the near perfect Atlanta snow run colder Temps lineup all snow event from Lil south of I20 north still freezing rain problems south but not nearly as heavy totals their still would be a headache... remember don't take these as gospel


----------



## Mountainbuck

Met out of Chattanooga ain't buyin it. Broke my heart


----------



## ryork

Hey DDD, I've heard you mention before that you have a lot of respect for Matthew East. During his blog this morning, he gave his take on why he thinks the GFS's take on the Sat-Sun scenario should be taken seriously. Just curious, what's your take on that? I think I get what he's saying, but that was serious weather/modeling guru analysis...... Appreciate your thoughts!


----------



## PappyHoel

Cold rain


----------



## Mountainbuck

When does the next piece of information come in?


----------



## malak05

Mountainbuck said:


> When does the next piece of information come in?



NAM 830ish but still just coming into its range 
GFS & Canadian is 1030ish
And Euro is 1 am ish


----------



## fountain

Looks like my county..wheeler...is not in much there.  We good!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

turkeyhunter835 said:


> Wrong!!! Lol ha ha... I still have one of them little annoying black boxes that goes off every wendsday to do a 'test'... love it!!!!



That doesn't make me wrong, it makes you part of the 10%.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That doesn't make me wrong, it makes you part of the 10%.



Woo hooo...... I'm a 10%er.


----------



## DDD

Someone wake up SaveReds.  Savannah may be in play.


----------



## blood on the ground

got my flip flops ready ... bring on the thunder snow!


----------



## DDD

ryork said:


> Hey DDD, I've heard you mention before that you have a lot of respect for Matthew East. During his blog this morning, he gave his take on why he thinks the GFS's take on the Sat-Sun scenario should be taken seriously. Just curious, what's your take on that? I think I get what he's saying, but that was serious weather/modeling guru analysis...... Appreciate your thoughts!



Matthew East is one of the best in the business bar none.  His expertise in SE Snow Storms is phenomenal.  

Without question, the GFS and EURO are one 2 different islands.   I am still greatly cautious that the GFS is going to start trending towards the EURO solution that is more suppressed and a whole lot less moisture.


----------



## adavis

DDD said:


> Matthew East is one of the best in the business bar none.  His expertise in SE Snow Storms is phenomenal.
> 
> Without question, the GFS and EURO are one 2 different islands.   I am still greatly cautious that the GFS is going to start trending towards the EURO solution that is more suppressed and a whole lot less moisture.



I like East too! While we are on other mets where has Robert at WXsouth gone off to?


----------



## DDD

adavis said:


> I like East too! While we are on other mets where has Robert at WXsouth gone off to?



I have no idea what has happened to Robert.  I am doing some checking to find out what the deal is.


----------



## DDD

Shack is updated for the 18Z... the 00Z is running and let me tell you, it's going to go from something to nothing the way it looks to me... we shall see.


----------



## normaldave

I recall reading Robert (WxSouth) was closing up shop in part to care for ailing parents...this is what I ran across this evening.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48814-wxsouth-ending-his-site-and-facebook/


----------



## DDD

South GA / Middle GA folks are going to love this run.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Canadian gives N GA 4-6. Not too shabby


----------



## Rockdale Buck

DDD, you getting the January 2011 vibe at all?


----------



## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> DDD, you getting the January 2011 vibe at all?



I wish I was.  There is a voice in the back of my mind screaming at me not to get to over confident.  I know why too... Its' because these ULL's will make you look foolish and the EURO is not on board.


----------



## DDD

Post is up in the Shack.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

Alrighty boys I done went and got my horn all polished up and I'm just waitin on the go ahead to mash the big ol red button...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I wish I was.  There is a voice in the back of my mind screaming at me not to get to over confident.  I know why too... Its' because these ULL's will make you look foolish and the EURO is not on board.



My gut is telling me that when the NAM finally comes in range it will be cold and dry with a bluebird sky. Cold chasing moisture with a strong HPS in between fronts. 

That or I might just be sleep deprived from chasing down which smoke detector battery was making them chirp here at near 1 am in the morning.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My gut is telling me that when the NAM finally comes in range it will be cold and dry with a bluebird sky. Cold chasing moisture with a strong HPS in between fronts.
> 
> That or I might just be sleep deprived from chasing down which smoke detector battery was making them chirp here at near 1 am in the morning.



You are sleep deprived... EURO at least right now with  the energy coming on shore is looking more like the GFS ... let's see where it goes...


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My gut is telling me that when the NAM finally comes in range it will be cold and dry with a bluebird sky. Cold chasing moisture with a strong HPS in between fronts.
> 
> That or I might just be sleep deprived from chasing down which smoke detector battery was making them chirp here at near 1 am in the morning.



LOL ... A chirping smoke detector....That has to be in the top five most annoying things ever!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> You are sleep deprived... EURO at least right now with  the energy coming on shore is looking more like the GFS ... let's see where it goes...



I never discount revelations discovered in the midst of sub-consciousness or sleep deprivation. You never know when your brain is functioning at its peak.

What were talking about?


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I never discount revelations discovered in the midst of sub-consciousness or sleep deprivation. You never know when your brain is functioning at its peak.
> 
> What were talking about?



We played chase the chirping smoke detector 3 weeks ago.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I never discount revelations discovered in the midst of sub-consciousness or sleep deprivation. You never know when your brain is functioning at its peak.
> 
> What were talking about?



Also, why is it that the smoke detector always waits until between 12am and 4am to chirp?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> LOL ... A chirping smoke detector....That has to be in the top five most annoying things ever!



Apparently I was sleeping through it just fine. 
What was most annoying was the wife badgering me to wake up and fix it. 

Now the silence is deafening and I can't relax enough to find that magical circadian rhythm I had a mere half hour ago.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Also, why is it that the smoke detector always waits until between 12am and 4am to chirp?



They must be manufactured by vengeful little commies in China.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They must be manufactured by vengeful little commies in China.



Russia!

EURO is a little more sided with the GFS... the magic panels are almost up....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Russia!
> 
> EURO is a little more sided with the GFS... the magic panels are almost up....



Ice Storm in Hilton Head and a hit and miss scattering of light snow for us. Pfffffft. It'll probably happen it's so incredibly stupid.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ice Storm in Hilton Head and a hit and miss scattering of light snow for us. Pfffffft. It'll probably happen it's so incredibly stupid.



Nope.  Looks a lot like the Canadian model.  Much more believable.  Carolina's win on the EURO, but the important part is that the EURO went towards the GFS.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Nope.  Looks a lot like the Canadian model.  Much more believable.  Carolina's win on the EURO, but the important part is that the EURO went towards the GFS.



I'm going back to counting jumping enchilada's. By the 12z run tomorrow it will be a blizzard in South Ga and a major Ice Storm in Orlando.


----------



## Buckfever 2

Post is up in the Shack.
__________________
GON Weatherman

What is the Shack and how do I get there ?


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm going back to counting jumping enchilada's. By the 12z run tomorrow it will be a blizzard in South Ga and a major Ice Storm in Orlando.



yous a talented lilfeller... counting and jumping at the same time!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Buckfever 2 said:


> Post is up in the Shack.
> __________________
> GON Weatherman
> 
> What is the Shack and how do I get there ?



http://forum.gon.com/forumdisplay.php?f=159


----------



## Buckfever 2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> http://forum.gon.com/forumdisplay.php?f=159



Thanks


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Buckfever 2 said:


> Thanks



Next time make the request at a normal hour. Every time someone posts on a weather thread DDD and I get a chime notification on our phones and the bat signal glows on the ceiling.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> Also, why is it that the smoke detector always waits until between 12am and 4am to chirp?



Yep... mine do the same and you have to pretty much change them all to figure it out.  That's 4 flights of stairs to include attic and basement.  Annoying


----------



## malak05

As stated Euro made a shift last night toward the GFS and funny enough GFS slightly moved toward Euro... Euro, CMC,ukmet, GFS all now in the camp of winter event this weekend.

Now in IMHO solely but if the system is tapping the Gulf of Mexico then I feel the .qpf models are getting  could even be under modeled? We seen here in past few days a dump of moisture the GOM is rip conditions for moisture right now. I look forward to a new breakdown from DDD when some more model runs today


----------



## Crakajak

DDD said:


> Also, why is it that the smoke detector always waits until between 12am and 4am to chirp?



I thought errbody changed them out on Jan 1 and July 1. I must be getting like Sinclair.


----------



## PappyHoel

Cold drizzle.  However I'm hoping for an opportunity to hunt in the snow in the north ga mountains


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crakajak said:


> I thought errbody changed them out on Jan 1 and July 1. I must be getting like Sinclair.



You have an illness........plus, it's on time change day when you're suppose to change them, and we usually do. We were living on the wild side this year........

As far as the models go, and knowing the history of the GFS on these types of events (extreme egg on face teaches good lessons) I'm sticking with my gut feeling about high and dry bluebird skies. 

The Fri 18z hr period on todays 06z run of the NAM and GFS are starkly different. The GFS has snow starting in the TN & NC mountains to our north and well underway in Louisiana, Arkansas and creeping into Mississippi. The NAM under the same run for the same hour has nada, niet, zilch, nothing, not a speck of anything happening anywhere on the SE sector for that period.


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You have an illness........plus, it's on time change day when you're suppose to change them, and we usually do. We were living on the wild side this year........
> 
> As far as the models go, and knowing the history of the GFS on these types of events (extreme egg on face teaches good lessons) I'm sticking with my gut feeling about high and dry bluebird skies.
> 
> The Fri 18z hr period on todays 06z run of the NAM and GFS are starkly different. The GFS has snow starting in the TN & NC mountains to our north and well underway in Louisiana, Arkansas and creeping into Mississippi. The NAM under the same run for the same hour has nada, niet, zilch, nothing, not a speck of anything happening anywhere on the SE sector for that period.



So no leave early and come back later?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> So no leave early and come back later?



You should be able to leave at the scheduled time on Friday. You might be able to sneak back on Sunday with some caution. All of this is assuming the GFS has a resolution by Friday at noon. 

My gut says your good to go, but if I'm wrong you have to blame it on DDD.


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You should be able to leave at the scheduled time on Friday. You might be able to sneak back on Sunday with some caution. All of this is assuming the GFS has a resolution by Friday at noon.
> 
> My gut says your good to go, but if I'm wrong you have to blame it on DDD.



Okie doke! I can do that!!!

Dude did you see the pictures I shared from Albany and my Grandma's house..... Bad!!!! Huge Pine Tree through the living room. Bad!!!


----------



## RinggoldGa

I'm doing the opposite of pappy, supposed to leave the mountains of GA and head to South Ga (sylvania) for a traditional end of the year "doe weekend" with close friends.  First time in forever I'm hoping for a bust on the models.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> Okie doke! I can do that!!!
> 
> Dude did you see the pictures I shared from Albany and my Grandma's house..... Bad!!!! Huge Pine Tree through the living room. Bad!!!



No!!! I'll have to look that up!


----------



## Nicodemus

Parts of Albany are destroyed. Like a war zone.


----------



## Robbie101

Nicodemus said:


> Parts of Albany are destroyed. Like a war zone.



Its bad man. I've got several family members affected by it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Parts of Albany are destroyed. Like a war zone.



Wow!!! I was unplugged during all of that. I certainly hope it was mainly property and not lives. One can be replaced, the other, not so much. 

My prayers go out to the good folks that were effected by this system.


----------



## Nicodemus

I`ve heard no reports of any fatalities yet, and hope I don`t. Damage around areas of town are catastrophic though. One of the tipis set up out at Chehaw was even blown over on its side. That is hard to believe.


----------



## Robbie101

My Grandmothers place


----------



## Robbie101

No Injuries, all property damage and all will be ok.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> No Injuries, all property damage and all will be ok.



Wow!!! Mind if I share these on Twitter? I don't think folks have a clue what went on down there.


----------



## DDD

Nick, I had no idea about all the damage down there!  Wow!


----------



## malak05

Robbie101 said:


> My Grandmothers place



Glad everyone is okay that community looks like it took a thumping. No matter what time of year it is you truly can't let your guard down it seems.


----------



## malak05

MC, what's your thoughts so far on the latest NAM while it's still long range for it...show the moisture breaks out similar to other models now?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Nick, I had no idea about all the damage down there!  Wow!



The professionals aren't talking about it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> MC, what's your thoughts so far on the latest NAM while it's still long range for it...show the moisture breaks out similar to other models now?



Take it with a grain of sand. I think we're two days away from a set in stone (soft stone) resolution among models. 

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10539680&postcount=250


----------



## Buckfever 2

*Spann this morning*

Wow..This may become something....This is what SPANN, out of Alabama, is saying this morning...

 "POTENTIAL WINTER STORM: We all know we have a limited skill set in dealing with wintry precipitation in Alabama, especially four days in advance. So there is no way to be extremely specific now, but with all global models on board, we can’t ignore the potential.

WHAT WE CAN TELL YOU NOW: There is a decent chance of accumulating snow or sleet somewhere over the northern half of Alabama Friday afternoon, Friday night, and into early Saturday morning. However, it is simply too early to forecast accumulation amounts, or exact placement.

Temperatures should fall well below freezing Friday night, meaning this has potential to be a “high impact” event with travel woes. This system will also have potential to impact other states across the southern U.S…"


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wow!!! Mind if I share these on Twitter? I don't think folks have a clue what went on down there.



Absolutely buddy


----------



## smokey30725

Man, this thread will be at 1000 before the storm ever hits!


----------



## RinggoldGa

12 Z GFS is running


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Buckfever 2 said:


> Wow..This may become something....This is what SPANN, out of Alabama, is saying this morning...
> 
> "POTENTIAL WINTER STORM: We all know we have a limited skill set in dealing with wintry precipitation in Alabama, especially four days in advance. So there is no way to be extremely specific now, but with all global models on board, we can’t ignore the potential.
> 
> WHAT WE CAN TELL YOU NOW: There is a decent chance of accumulating snow or sleet somewhere over the northern half of Alabama Friday afternoon, Friday night, and into early Saturday morning. However, it is simply too early to forecast accumulation amounts, or exact placement.
> 
> Temperatures should fall well below freezing Friday night, meaning this has potential to be a “high impact” event with travel woes. This system will also have potential to impact other states across the southern U.S…"



Spann's the man, and gave fair warning yet left himself plenty of wiggle room. That's the way to do it.


----------



## PappyHoel

Looks like there may be something to this.  My knee tickles


----------



## Miguel Cervantes




----------



## smokey30725

PappyHoel said:


> Looks like there may be something to this.  My knee tickles



Your knee tickle + my leg tingle = significant winter weather inbound.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Another good GFS run.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

My PWS is officially approved, rated "Gold Star" and active on Weather Underground. You can view my PWS dashboard and charts (as brief as they are) on the link provided here. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=888712


----------



## RinggoldGa

The latest GFS gives a middle finger to North AL and NW Ga, leaving us in Miggys "high and dry".  Anxiously awaiting some of y'all with Euro access to let us know what the 12z shows on it.


----------



## DDD

Very short synopsis.  

NAM looks good out to 84.

GFS is a slight shift south, still pains 2-5" from I-20 Northward

Canadian model is 5-6" painted broadly and would be a nice hit of snow.

I will post a write up shortly.


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> The latest GFS gives a middle finger to North AL and NW Ga, leaving us in Miggys "high and dry".  Anxiously awaiting some of y'all with Euro access to let us know what the 12z shows on it.



Really this is perfect setup currently, as the NW trend within 3 days is right around the corner... MANY of our winter storms over past 4-5 years as I remember have had a lil NW auto-correct track as it came closer.... then again another theory is if qpf are being under done the rain shield could be even be expanded more and bring everybody more love?


----------



## smokey30725

Let's light this candle....................


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> Really this is perfect setup currently, as the NW trend within 3 days is right around the corner... MANY of our winter storms over past 4-5 years as I remember have had a lil NW auto-correct track as it came closer.... then again another theory is if qpf are being under done the rain shield could be even be expanded more and bring everybody more love?



We can hope. But I'm used to getting the short end of the stick up here in the Chattanooga/NW Ga area.  Seems we are rarely in the middle of precip.  We always seem to be on the northern or southern edge.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

DDD said:


> Very short synopsis.
> 
> NAM looks good out to 84.
> 
> GFS is a slight shift south, still pains 2-5" from I-20 Northward
> 
> Canadian model is 5-6" painted broadly and would be a nice hit of snow.
> 
> I will post a write up shortly.


So.. can u say that with all these models showing something close to the same it should happen to a extent?


----------



## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> We can hope. But I'm used to getting the short end of the stick up here in the Chattanooga/NW Ga area.  Seems we are rarely in the middle of precip.  We always seem to be on the northern or southern edge.



Couldn't agree more.


----------



## PappyHoel

I just want 2-4 inches to hunt in please.  I'm also requesting a light snow while I'm in the deer stand.  Thanks


----------



## MariettaDawg

... and the Euro taketh away.  

@GONWeatherguy - "EURO is a complete bust. No snow anywhere in Georgia. GFS and EURO couldn't be any further apart. #gawx"

Hurry up and wait. However, WxSouth made a twitter appearance today. Things could be leaning the right way.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Models are so far apart! Gonna be hard to figure out.


----------



## Trigabby

GFS : Hey!  Look what I found, it's gonna happen!

Euro : No, it's not.

GFS : Yes, it is!

Euro : No, it's not.

.....

GFS : No, it's not.

Euro : Yes, it is!

GFS : No..  You're wrong.

Euro : No.. It's going to happen.

GFS :  Well, yes, yes it is..

Euro : No, you're wrong.

CMC, Ukie, et al : Hey!  Look at us!

NAM : Everyone sit down and shut up!  I got this!


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My PWS is officially approved, rated "Gold Star" and active on Weather Underground. You can view my PWS dashboard and charts (as brief as they are) on the link provided here.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=888712



I  want to do this with a camera.  I will need to pick your brain.


----------



## jbird1

The one ingredient, variable, player if you will, that looks to be a go is the long term, bitter arctic cold.  Last year it seems we didn't really get any shots of set in Arctic air.  I like the chances better when you see that the high temps will be below freezing for several days and even up to a week occasionally.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> The one ingredient, variable, player if you will, that looks to be a go is the long term, bitter arctic cold.  Last year it seems we didn't really get any shots of set in Arctic air.  I like the chances better when you see that the high temps will be below freezing for several days and even up to a week occasionally.



Yeah well. It's all subjective. 

Y'all repeat after me; "High and dry, Bluebird skies."


----------



## smokey30725

The Oracle from Dublin is doing some mighty fancy backstepping on his facebook page, lol. Guess the heat from Miggy and DDD got to him!


----------



## Matt.M

smokey30725 said:


> The Oracle from Dublin is doing some mighty fancy backstepping on his facebook page, lol. Guess the heat from Miggy and DDD got to him!



linky?


----------



## elfiii

Trigabby said:


> GFS : Hey!  Look what I found, it's gonna happen!
> 
> Euro : No, it's not.
> 
> GFS : Yes, it is!
> 
> Euro : No, it's not.
> 
> .....
> 
> GFS : No, it's not.
> 
> Euro : Yes, it is!
> 
> GFS : No..  You're wrong.
> 
> Euro : No.. It's going to happen.
> 
> GFS :  Well, yes, yes it is..
> 
> Euro : No, you're wrong.
> 
> CMC, Ukie, et al : Hey!  Look at us!
> 
> NAM : Everyone sit down and shut up!  I got this!



DDD : Clown maps all. ^

The Messican : Yep.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

smokey30725 said:


> The Oracle from Dublin is doing some mighty fancy backstepping on his facebook page, lol. Guess the heat from Miggy and DDD got to him!



Someone tagged me on FB last night with his clown maps and false forecast. I told that person not to buy it. Then I saw DDD bring it up....
Trust in Miggy and DDD. Unlike him, they have a clue


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> The Oracle from Dublin is doing some mighty fancy backstepping on his facebook page, lol. Guess the heat from Miggy and DDD got to him!



You've really gotta go full blown well seasoned moron to have a professional Met write an article against your Wx misgivings and tactics in Forbes Magazine. 

He is top candidate for the Winter of 2017 Darwin Award.

There is a runner up out there on video, but he's not reporting on Winter Wx and is from a town in Alabama I have yet to find, primarily because I can only understand about every third word this fella says.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> DDD : Clown maps all. ^
> 
> The Messican : Yep.



One of the high energy oracles of global weather, Ryan Maue, posted some really enticing stuff on Twitter this morning that would be a YUGE factor in how this plays out. 

Unfortunately it can only be used by us for entertainment value. The complexity of what he is referencing will take another day and a half at least to verify, if he's on the right track. 

Until then, I'm sticking with my Bluebird song.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You've really gotta go full blown well seasoned moron to have a professional Met write an article against your Wx misgivings and tactics in Forbes Magazine.
> 
> He is top candidate for the Winter of 2017 Darwin Award.
> 
> There is a runner up out there on video, but he's not reporting on Winter Wx and is from a town in Alabama I have yet to find, primarily because I can only understand about every third word this fella says.



Go check his FB page. He's updating it about every 30 minutes. Still sticking with the Storm of the Century predictions. Except for my corner of NW Georgia. He says we will only get a light dusting.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Go check his FB page. He's updating it about every 30 minutes. Still sticking with the Storm of the Century predictions. Except for my corner of NW Georgia. He says we will only get a light dusting.



Just got done reading it. Apparently one of his friends got through to him, partially, but he still doesn't understand that "resolution" in forecasting is not founded off of one model product ie, The GFS. He is quoting, citing it as weather Bible and that just isn't so. 

He's learning, but has proven to be a slow learner. 

The force is not very strong with this one.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just got done reading it. Apparently one of his friends got through to him, partially, but he still doesn't understand that "resolution" in forecasting is not founded off of one model product ie, The GFS. He is quiting, siting it as weather Bible and that just isn't so.
> 
> He's learning, but has proven to be a slow learner.
> 
> The force is not very strong with this one.



Can't fix stupid.

Sadly, there's a never ending supply of it.


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just got done reading it. Apparently one of his friends got through to him, partially, but he still doesn't understand that "resolution" in forecasting is not founded off of one model product ie, The GFS. He is quoting, citing it as weather Bible and that just isn't so.
> 
> He's learning, but has proven to be a slow learner.
> 
> The force is not very strong with this one.



I'd like to read it. Which moron is it?


----------



## Head East

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My PWS is officially approved, rated "Gold Star" and active on Weather Underground. You can view my PWS dashboard and charts (as brief as they are) on the link provided here.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=888712



Hey Miggy, I see a number of these little pointers on the map.  I checked one close to me and they have the local weather.   Are these pointers all systems like yours?  Of course, the one close to me has no gold star...not sure what that mens.  Can you explain that?  Yours is mobetta?


----------



## Jeff C.

Either way, I just called my propane co.(gas logs only) to come fill my tank. She said my delivery date would be next Monday, so I told her we were getting ready to see the storm of the century in GA and she changed it to tomorrow. 

And yes, I mentioned our weather gurus here as my source for weather.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Head East said:


> Hey Miggy, I see a number of these little pointers on the map.  I checked one close to me and they have the local weather.   Are these pointers all systems like yours?  Of course, the one close to me has no gold star...not sure what that mens.  Can you explain that?  Yours is mobetta?



No clue. They say it is high quality trusted data. I'm like,,,,,mmmm,,,,,,ok, if they say so. 

I'm new to the PWS community and all I do is click on the pointer/circle and it tells me where they are. ???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Jeff C. said:


> Either way, I just called my propane co.(gas logs only) to come fill my tank. She said my delivery date would be next Monday, so I told her we were getting ready to see the storm of the century in GA and she changed it to tomorrow.
> 
> And yes, I mentioned our weather gurus here as my source for weather.



Dear Lordy help us!!!


----------



## Jeff C.

I didn't tell her one is called Miggy and the other one is DDD.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Jeff C. said:


> I didn't tell her one is called Miggy and the other one is DDD.



A Messican and a Redneck Dear Hunter told you so.


----------



## blondiega1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A Messican and a Redneck Dear Hunter told you so.



Seems legit.








.


----------



## Head East

Just forwarded my three oldest...Miggy N DDD say don't believe them weather forecasters.  They are in a holding pattern for weekend activities.


----------



## Head East

About Goldstar Stations:
This is a high-quality weather station that has passed our quality control process for 5 consecutive days


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Head East said:


> Just forwarded my three oldest...Miggy N DDD say don't believe them weather forecasters.  They are in a holding pattern for weekend activities.


----------



## Nicodemus

3D and Miggy, not sure how much has been shown, but there is a lot of damage in Albany.


----------



## RinggoldGa

*GFS held serve at 18z run . . . .*

. ..  . says central GA getting it good.  But my little corner of NW GA completely shut out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> 3D and Miggy, not sure how much has been shown, but there is a lot of damage in Albany.



I'm trying to gather all of the pics I can and post them on Twitter. That is where DDD and I have the most exposure to the pro met community, since they aren't talking about it. 

I feel it is important it get out there and I can broadcast it on my FB feed as well. 

If any of y'all take pics you can email them or text them to me. Text is preferred. PM me if you need that info.


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> . ..  . says central GA getting it good.  But my little corner of NW GA completely shut out.


Don't fret this one model one run and he it did improve slightly to north compared to 12z. Plus GFS has suppressed track bias history. Don't believe will see huge swing to nw but a Lil bit all you need


----------



## Rockdale Buck

malak05 said:


> Don't fret this one model one run and he it did improve slightly to north compared to 12z. Plus GFS has suppressed track bias history. Don't believe will see huge swing to nw but a Lil bit all you need



Fret? Lol that map is amazing for most of the state!! I think most people on this forum would love that!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> . ..  . says central GA getting it good.  But my little corner of NW GA completely shut out.



We'll see what the 18z has to say. It is running right now. 

At some point the GFS has to come in line with the NAM or go so outrageously out of line with it that one is ignored over the other all together. With the potential for massive cold dry air to dive into the SE I tend to lean towards the NAM. 

Here's the problem with leaning towards either one of them; Timing is crucial for any of this to be little more than a cold rain with a brief period of wet snow, turning to dry blowing snow before it is forced out by the extremely dry air. It will be a rapidly moving system so the ability to forecast when, what and where are going to be difficult at best even for the Pro's. 

I'm hoping for the best (high and dry) and well prepared for the worst, and encouraging others to do the same. Waiting until someone tells you it is going to dump ice and snow IYBY in 24 hours is too late, and chances are if you have not prepared the necessary resources to survive such an event, you won't be able to find them on short notice. A little precaution and preparation goes a long ways.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We'll see what the 18z has to say. It is running right now.
> 
> At some point the GFS has to come in line with the NAM or go so outrageously out of line with it that one is ignored over the other all together. With the potential for massive cold dry air to dive into the SE I tend to lean towards the NAM.
> 
> Here's the problem with leaning towards either one of them; Timing is crucial for any of this to be little more than a cold rain with a brief period of wet snow, turning to dry blowing snow before it is forced out by the extremely dry air. It will be a rapidly moving system so the ability to forecast when, what and where are going to be difficult at best even for the Pro's.
> 
> I'm hoping for the best (high and dry) and well prepared for the worst, and encouraging others to do the same. Waiting until someone tells you it is going to dump ice and snow IYBY in 24 hours is too late, and chances are if you have not prepared the necessary resources to survive such an event, you won't be able to find them on short notice. A little precaution and preparation goes a long ways.




That IS the 18z!  Hot off the press.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> That IS the 18z!  Hot off the press.



Yes. If you want to expose the GFS for the poser it is, on that same run for the 96 hr period go look at the 2m agl dewpoint and wind barbs. Then look at the 925, 850, 700 and 500 mb humidity and streamlines 96 hr maps. 

You'll see that the moisture potential is in a very narrow layer enveloped by extremely dry air at the surface and aloft. 

A clear signal to me that the GFS is still struggling to reconcile all of the data for a good solution. 

Still sticking with the NAM>


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes. If you want to expose the GFS for the poser it is, on that same run for the 96 hr period go look at the 2m agl dewpoint and wind barbs. Then look at the 925, 850, 700 and 500 mb humidity and streamlines 96 hr maps.
> 
> You'll see that the moisture potential is in a very narrow layer enveloped by extremely dry air at the surface and aloft.
> 
> A clear signal to me that the GFS is still struggling to reconcile all of the data for a good solution.
> 
> Still sticking with the NAM>



Which NAM?  4k? 3k? Plain old NAM?


----------



## malak05

The 84 hr NAM past run showed promising results. So it's still just outside it's ballpark range but had good cold press and moisture


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes. If you want to expose the GFS for the poser it is, on that same run for the 96 hr period go look at the 2m agl dewpoint and wind barbs. Then look at the 925, 850, 700 and 500 mb humidity and streamlines 96 hr maps.
> 
> You'll see that the moisture potential is in a very narrow layer enveloped by extremely dry air at the surface and aloft.
> 
> A clear signal to me that the GFS is still struggling to reconcile all of the data for a good solution.
> 
> Still sticking with the NAM>



You had to go and get all brainy and make me look at maps that are no more legible to me than Greek.  I'll take your word for it.  

And the NAM isn't all the way out to Saturday night yet, is it?  You just referring to the set up leading into Saturday?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Which NAM?  4k? 3k? Plain old NAM?



3k and 4k aren't effectively in range yet. You do the math.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> You had to go and get all brainy and make me look at maps that are no more legible to me than Greek.  I'll take your word for it.
> 
> And the NAM isn't all the way out to Saturday night yet, is it?  You just referring to the set up leading into Saturday?



Parallel hour references between the GFS and NAM. If you look at Total Kuchera Snow amounts for the 96 hr GFS then compare it to the same in the NAM. That will give you your true lag.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 3k and 4k aren't effectively in range yet. You do the math.



Where is my BLIZZARD?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Where is my BLIZZARD?



Dairy Queen. What's your favorite flavor?


----------



## rospaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dairy Queen. What's your favorite flavor?


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dairy Queen. What's your favorite flavor?



Any will do as long as it is 6" tall.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Brad nitz just said something about it...


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Or Is about to


----------



## cripple

Let the bread/milk shoppin' begin: http://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-ne...friday-night-saturday/CFSfmbjPrWJgm4PGjcDBlM/


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

cripple said:


> Let the bread/milk shoppin' begin: http://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-ne...friday-night-saturday/CFSfmbjPrWJgm4PGjcDBlM/



I guess he didn't think Panovich's data on the need to be first, right or wrong, applied to pro's. 

If he's right, good on him. But 4 days out?


----------



## rhbama3

The news did not show the true devastation of downtown Albany. It was a brutal 1.5 mile/ 45 minute drive on Jefferson street. Massive amount of tree damage around all major routes around Phoebe Putney, traffic lights and power outages, and 7pm curfew in effect.
Spent the afternoon dragging tree limbs and trunks with the 4 wheeler out of my son-in-laws grandfathers place.
It's bad down here but thankful that there weren't more casualties.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

rhbama3 said:


> The news did not show the true devastation of downtown Albany. It was a brutal 1.5 mile/ 45 minute drive on Jefferson street. Massive amount of tree damage around all major routes around Phoebe Putney, traffic lights and power outages, and 7pm curfew in effect.
> Spent the afternoon dragging tree limbs and trunks with the 4 wheeler out of my son-in-laws grandfathers place.
> It's bad down here but thankful that there weren't more casualties.



Hate to hear that.


----------



## rhbama3

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hate to hear that.



Darton College lost most of the pecan orchard from what i hear, along with the museum of fine arts being a total loss.


----------



## DDD

Met Shack is updated.

RHBAMA... I am sorry to hear this.  Seriously, from what I have seen it has been devastating.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

rhbama3 said:


> Darton College lost most of the pecan orchard from what i hear, along with the museum of fine arts being a total loss.



Did it spare the Phoebe Wilson Hospice House? Lots of trees around that swampy location.


----------



## Nicodemus

rhbama3 said:


> Darton College lost most of the pecan orchard from what i hear, along with the museum of fine arts being a total loss.





That`s a shame. We were there Christmas afternoon watching my friends fly and hunt their hawks.


----------



## rhbama3

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Did it spare the Phoebe Wilson Hospice House? Lots of trees around that swampy location.


Honestly don't know, Hugh. This thing cut a wide swath, might have even been two separate tornadoes.


----------



## deerbandit

DDD said:


> Met Shack is updated.
> 
> RHBAMA... I am sorry to hear this.  Seriously, from what I have seen it has been devastating.



DDD can you explain the last two maps to me please. Is one an early amount of snow fall and the second a total overall?


----------



## Head East

Miguel Cervantes said:


>


----------



## Head East

rhbama3 said:


> The news did not show the true devastation of downtown Albany. It was a brutal 1.5 mile/ 45 minute drive on Jefferson street. Massive amount of tree damage around all major routes around Phoebe Putney, traffic lights and power outages, and 7pm curfew in effect.
> Spent the afternoon dragging tree limbs and trunks with the 4 wheeler out of my son-in-laws grandfathers place.
> It's bad down here but thankful that there weren't more casualties.



That is sad indeed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

rhbama3 said:


> Honestly don't know, Hugh. This thing cut a wide swath, might have even been two separate tornadoes.



It baffles me why we are not seeing or hearing one single thing about this on the news?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

It amazes me that one of our local Mets felt the need to jump the gun tonight, especially after the lamblasting that took place between Twitter, Facebook and Forbes today. It appears that some, both amateurs and pro's, don't feel any of that pertained to them. Which is amusing since Dr. Marshall and I specifically covered that topic in unanimous agreement. 

All of that being said, here is James Spann from twitter with the voice of reason.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

He didn't really jump the gun.  Just laid out the possibility of snow.  Said there were models showing snow and others were showing nothing.  DDD use to get MAD about the local mets not mentioning anything, so I actually like that Brad acknowledged that there is a chance.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It baffles me why we are not seeing or hearing one single thing about this on the news?





I bet the 1940 tornado that hit downtown Albany got more coverage than this one.


----------



## Robbie101

Nicodemus said:


> I bet the 1940 tornado that hit downtown Albany got more coverage than this one.



I don't understand it. 8th Ave is torn up. I can only imagine everywhere in that area is. 3 of the 4 pines in my Grandmother's yard is snapped in half or uprooted. Her living room, dinning room, office, hallway, all destroyed. Car canopy, gone! Shed outback, gone! A tree crushed my uncles truck. Shattered the windshield of my aunts car. My cousins house next door isn't much better. If my aunt, uncle, and grandmother had been another 30' to the right in the house they probably would not have made it out.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Sorry to hear about the damage folks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Rockdale Buck said:


> He didn't really jump the gun.  Just laid out the possibility of snow.  Said there were models showing snow and others were showing nothing.  DDD use to get MAD about the local mets not mentioning anything, so I actually like that Brad acknowledged that there is a chance.



I watched his video. His comments regarding the earlier debacle aren't congruent with his phraseology tonight. 

Not the first time I've diverged from his style either though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> I bet the 1940 tornado that hit downtown Albany got more coverage than this one.



It just don't make sense.


----------



## Robbie101

Miggy, do you see where I've tagged you a few times on FB?


----------



## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> He didn't really jump the gun.  Just laid out the possibility of snow.  Said there were models showing snow and others were showing nothing.  DDD use to get MAD about the local mets not mentioning anything, so I actually like that Brad acknowledged that there is a chance.



I agree.  I am personally glad to see Brad say and I watched him at 6 say, "The potential..." That's all I asked for.  Just acknowledge that it's there.

Now the nonsense that gets me is the temps.  They will show snow on Saturday and a high of 41.  Ummmmmm....... No.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

GFS coming in with a big run for GA


----------



## DDD

I think a lot of folks are going to like this run of the GFS.


----------



## smokey30725

Would some of those folks live in far NW Georgia? (Please say yes, please say yes......)


----------



## DDD

Here you go weather weenies.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD isn't most of the latest GFS run Atlanta and south?


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD isn't most of the latest GFS run Atlanta and south?



See above.


----------



## smokey30725

Dang. Looks like a total bust for me.


----------



## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Here you go weather weenies.


that map will most likely change many more times before the weekend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> that map will most likely change many more times before the weekend.



Guaranteed !


----------



## rospaw

Well, it's 7am and i thought i might stoke the fire in here. Might get a 3D or a Mex up and posting.......?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I'm still bumfuzzled over the contradictions in the products within the GFS itself. It could be because I'm a Severe Wx dude and just don't appreciate all of the finer anomalies of what it takes to make snow, or perhaps I'm just stupid, or any combination of all of it. 

That being said, I pulled up the GFS this morning and looked at the 10:1 ratio 12 hour snow model for the 84 hour period, since that seems to be the peak of the event on the GFS. Then I pulled up an array of other GFS products to convince myself this might actually happen, but it didn't work. It thew more confusion into the mix than my poor little brain could handle. BUT, just for grins and giggles (amended for the 'G' rating)  and knowing all of the info I just pulled up on the GFS, I pulled up the NAM 84 hr period 10:1 ratio 24 hour snow map. Sadly it looked more like what the GFS product of the same name should have given the other ensemble products. 

You be the judge. (labels are on each product)


----------



## shakey gizzard

Middle Tenn has a winter storm warning with a 0% chance of snow!


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Kurt on 95.5 just talked about it to!!! Come on snow!!!


----------



## keithsto

DDD said:


> Here you go weather weenies.



While the kid in me would love to see this verify and dump 8 inches of snow over my house, the adult in me doesn't want to risk my 35 acres of planted pines.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Looks like we need this thing to shift slightly north for us up in nw ga. Hope it does. Whats the time frame anyone? My gf works in lawrencville and typically drives back Friday evening but ive been on this for a week and have told her she may need to head up Thursday evening. I heard from the local tv guy last night it may impact us up here Thursday night so Im a little confused.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I'll be down in Sardis, GA (south Burke County) Friday night-Sunday morning. Megan may be enjoying the snow without me back in Thomson.


----------



## Nicodemus

Third Avenue between Slappey Drive and the hospital, before and after.

There`s over 1,000 homes damaged in Albany.


----------



## Crakajak

Nicodemus said:


> Third Avenue between Slappey Drive and the hospital, before and after.
> 
> There`s over 1,000 homes damaged in Albany.


That is awful about the damage in Albany and surrounding areas.
Big prayers sent for everyone that had damage and for the ones helping with the cleanup and power restoration.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Third Avenue between Slappey Drive and the hospital, before and after.
> 
> There`s over 1,000 homes damaged in Albany.



Man, I hate that for those folks down there.


----------



## GA DAWG

TV said early this morning maybe a dusting but most folks would stay dry. They must be going off the one dry map.


----------



## malak05

12z Nam this morning much better separation between Shortwave in NW and form the wave on the east coast. Last night 00z run was flatten and shredded... see where this goes


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> 12z Nam this morning much better separation between Shortwave in NW and form the wave on the east coast. Last night 00z run was flatten and shredded... see where this goes



Map/pic?


----------



## NCHillbilly

They're calling for anywhere from 1/2" to 9" here.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Nic, I was looking at the weather yesterday morning and thinking about y'all down there. Nasty stuff.


----------



## malak05

This is earlier 24 hour out interaction looks a lil more separated though does flatten out toward the end. The NAM looks better this morning just by quick glance on cold and moisture especially NC area but more moisture feedback then 0z for SE for sure... hopefully continues a trend throughout day


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> This is earlier 24 hour out interaction looks a lil more separated though does flatten out toward the end. The NAM looks better this morning just by quick glance on cold and moisture especially NC area but more moisture feedback then 0z for SE for sure... hopefully continues a trend throughout day



Why two of the same maps? and how are you getting moisture determinations from a vorticity map? Not complaining, just wondering?


----------



## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Why two of the same maps? and how are you getting moisture determinations from a vorticity map? Not complaining, just wondering?



The end results down the road with be strong S/W better held together more lift for gulf, it does weaken a lil latter but not as early or as bad as 0z run, and latter frames it shows a bigger precp. field from gulf and a lil better snow accumulations comparing to 0z run

Not a big jump but a improved from last nights run


----------



## GA DAWG

NCHillbilly said:


> They're calling for anywhere from 1/2" to 9" here.


Sounds like they've nailed it down.


----------



## malak05

I wouldn't worry about "totals" to much in this image from the NAM but 12z NAM did have changes which brought about more consolidated area of snow and pattern... so in my eyes good trend for it...on to other models


----------



## Rockdale Buck

I just want some flakes at this point


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> The end results down the road with be strong S/W better held together more lift for gulf, it does weaken a lil latter but not as early or as bad as 0z run, and latter frames it shows a bigger precp. field from gulf and a lil better snow accumulations comparing to 0z run
> 
> Not a big jump but a improved from last nights run



Interesting to me, because this winter stuff is a chin scratcher for me. I've never associated vorticity with moisture availability. I use it in STS analysis for the presence of turbulence at various mb levels (height) for comparing crossovers and potential for rotation in storms. I do use Lifted Index to project the potential for moisture at height along with CAPE and Vorticity for the volatility of a system. 

Not sure I can get my brain wrapped around this winter wx logic.


----------



## Milkman

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not sure I can get my brain wrapped around this winter wx logic.




When you go outside and see white stuff on the ground it has snowed where you are.   Everything else is theory mixed in with smoke and mirrors.


----------



## PappyHoel

Just need a snow hunt, is that too much to ask for?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Milkman said:


> When you go outside and see white stuff on the ground it has snowed where you are.   Everything else is theory mixed in with smoke and mirrors.



I believe you are on to something there.


----------



## malak05

If the future NAM runs continued to build up the moisture and follow that track you would have a pretty good Miller A type track with snow bands moving SW to NE but for GA you would prefer that moisture kickup back into MS coast running into Alabama as this track and cold air connection makes it more of a hit the further east you travel.

and of course if I was a millionaire I would be drinking a beer on a Beach right now in the Caribbean and wouldn't care about the weather here in GA too.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Interesting to me, because this winter stuff is a chin scratcher for me. I've never associated vorticity with moisture availability. I use it in STS analysis for the presence of turbulence at various mb levels (height) for comparing crossovers and potential for rotation in storms. I do use Lifted Index to project the potential for moisture at height along with CAPE and Vorticity for the volatility of a system.
> 
> Not sure I can get my brain wrapped around this winter wx logic.



These types of conversations are the reason I love this thread. Thanks for all that ya'll and DDD do.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

What I look for is consistency between products. This 12z NAM is the closest to the GFS for exactly the same time period as it has been to date since this event first reared it's ugly head. Though the GFS still has some dewpoint, qpf, height issues to resolve, the same similar product on the NAM does not. All variables associated with it are good to go. 

Now, the trick is will it hold for more than 12 hours?


----------



## Robbie101

Will yall speak English please! lol


----------



## Crakajak

Robbie101 said:


> Will yall speak English please! lol



Its going to snow somewhere in Ga by Sunday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> Will yall speak English please! lol



If the GFS and NAM stay close to the same (as in the two pretty color pics I just posted) for another 12 hours then we'll be real dang close to a solution for this event. 

Then and only then can it totally go away 3 hours before it happens.


----------



## DDD

GFS is off and running... I will be honest, that thump of moisture that the GFS paints over the northern half of GA, don't jump off a tall building if it's gone on this run or the next run of the GFS.  It's on an island with that thump of moisture.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Crakajak said:


> Its going to snow somewhere in Ga by Sunday.



Maybe.


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If the GFS and NAM stay close to the same (as in the two pretty color pics I just posted) for another 12 hours then we'll be real dang close to a solution for this event.
> 
> Then and only then can it totally go away 3 hours before it happens.


----------



## bigdaddyga

Robbie101 said:


> Will yall speak English please! lol



It's going to be a non-event. There.


----------



## DDD

GFS will not bend.... She's going to thump N. GA


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Another good run!


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> GFS will not bend.... She's going to thump N. GA



Thump as in snow or thump as in giving us the shaft????


----------



## malak05

Gosh darn you GFS.... Stop it Stop it now your playing with my heart and I'm just not going to let you do this to me...


----------



## Matt.M

Bring it GFS!!!!

What's King EURO saying?  Getting closer to what GFS is thinking?


----------



## 3ringer

*Forecasting snow in different states*

North Dakota, it's going to snow . 
Florida, it's not going to snow. 
Georgia, we don't know. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.


----------



## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> Thump as in snow or thump as in giving us the shaft????



A bump up in snow totals to the N and NW of earlier runs

It's like the past 3 runs have expanded to snow shield to the NW ever so slightly by like 20-25 miles a run without the low in FL moving much


----------



## DDD

GFS drops the hammer on N. GA.  I hope this verifies, but I am skeptical.  I will probably make a call map here shortly.  Need to look at temps and moisture.  

I also want to see the Canadian, look at the NAM some more and see the EURO which rolls about 1PM before I start guessing.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Looks like the nw is empty maybe yall mean ne Georgia?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> GFS drops the hammer on N. GA.  I hope this verifies, but I am skeptical.  I will probably make a call map here shortly.  Need to look at temps and moisture.
> 
> I also want to see the Canadian, look at the NAM some more and see the EURO which rolls about 1PM before I start guessing.



Your buddy Dr. Shepherd pretty much discounted anything the EURO has to say. His remark was he didn't understand the fascination with it. He said they take their information from the GFS and the NAM aka the Mets in the US, and formulate their own interpretation of it. 

This was on WeatherBrains yesterday, in the midst of his rant about social media.


----------



## smokey30725

toyota4x4h said:


> Looks like the nw is empty maybe yall mean ne Georgia?



Exactly. That's what has me confused.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Your buddy Dr. Shepherd pretty much discounted anything the EURO has to say. His remark was he didn't understand the fascination with it. He said they take their information from the GFS and the NAM aka the Mets in the US, and formulate their own interpretation of it.
> 
> This was on WeatherBrains yesterday, in the midst of his rant about social media.



The EURO has shown to be very good at long range but short range it rarely changes it's thinking. 

The longer I look at the NAM run the more I start to convince myself it took a step towards the GFS.  We will have to wait and see.

To the EURO's credit, about 5 days ago it showed 2-3" in N. GA.  Just FWIW.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

toyota4x4h said:


> Looks like the nw is empty maybe yall mean ne Georgia?





smokey30725 said:


> Exactly. That's what has me confused.



NE Ga is still part of N. GA.........Captain Literal...


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> GFS drops the hammer on N. GA.  I hope this verifies, but I am skeptical.  I will probably make a call map here shortly.  Need to look at temps and moisture.
> 
> I also want to see the Canadian, look at the NAM some more and see the EURO which rolls about 1PM before I start guessing.



I like this one!  Let's keep it!










,


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Exactly. That's what has me confused.



Sorry, NW GA is in the screw zone right now, however, the GFS is slowly coming NW so in the end you may end up being ok.

What I am looking at is snow from Macon to the NE GA mountains.  Pretty large area of Georgia.  Sorry to leave NW GA out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> The EURO has shown to be very good at long range but short range it rarely changes it's thinking.
> 
> The longer I look at the NAM run the more I start to convince myself it took a step towards the GFS.  We will have to wait and see.
> 
> To the EURO's credit, about 5 days ago it showed 2-3" in N. GA.  Just FWIW.



Hey, I'm not disputing it, that college professor is. 
BTW, he also stated he is not AMS CBM or CCM certified.


----------



## Milkman

Robbie101 said:


> Will yall speak English please! lol


I dont understand them either, but I think they mean if the proper amounts of wet and cold get together it will snow on us in the 30655


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Sorry, NW GA is in the screw zone right now, however, the GFS is slowly coming NW so in the end you may end up being ok.
> 
> What I am looking at is snow from Macon to the NE GA mountains.  Pretty large area of Georgia.  Sorry to leave NW GA out.



Chattanooga has obviously deployed it's anti-snow dome once again.


----------



## DDD

The canadian model is light on snow for GA peeps.  Gives the lions share to North Carolina and South Carolina.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Chattanooga has obviously deployed it's anti-snow dome once again.



It's the arsenal over at Redstone Arsenal over near Huntsville. The radiation emitting from that facility causes everything east of it to be too warm and dry.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's the arsenal over at Redstone Arsenal over near Huntsville. The radiation emitting from that facility causes everything east of it to be too warm and dry.



That stinks. It also explains some of my relatives from Alabama.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> The EURO has shown to be very good at long range but short range it rarely changes it's thinking.
> 
> The longer I look at the NAM run the more I start to convince myself it took a step towards the GFS.  We will have to wait and see.
> 
> To the EURO's credit, about 5 days ago it showed 2-3" in N. GA.  Just FWIW.



What are your thoughts on the RGEM if you look around it only goes out to 12z Friday but the Moisture Plume and Low in Gulf are pretty healthy and with cold temps could connect back to GFS/NAMish solutions with a uptick in precp.


----------



## Crakajak

smokey30725 said:


> Chattanooga has obviously deployed it's anti-snow dome once again.


If you put the yard sprinklers out before it gets below freezing you might have a chance to still let the kiddos have a ice slide.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> That stinks. It also explains some of my relatives from Alabama.



Just wait for the 3k and 4k NAM models, you will like the progression of the system on them better than the NAM or GFS. They will almost be in range this evening.


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> What are your thoughts on the RGEM if you look around it only goes out to 12z Friday but the Moisture Plume and Low in Gulf are pretty healthy and with cold temps could connect back to GFS/NAMish solutions with a uptick in precp.



RGEM and the UKMET, I put them in the same boat.  Both have been showing more and more QPF.  

This close to a storm I am really surprised at how many different solutions there are.  

Also, need to keep an eye on temps.  Even on the GFS at the onset of the precip it's around 33-34° IMBY.  So it will start as rain.


----------



## bilgerat

Dang,Yall quit forcasting NE Ga snow, I gotta drive to downtown Atl Sat morn. at 7 AM.
hopefully the roads will be to warm for it to stick.


----------



## DDD

bilgerat said:


> Dang,Yall quit forcasting NE Ga snow, I gotta drive to downtown Atl Sat morn. at 7 AM.
> hopefully the roads will be to warm for it to stick.



If the GFS verifies, you are not going to ATL Saturday morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

bilgerat said:


> Dang,Yall quit forcasting NE Ga snow, I gotta drive to downtown Atl Sat morn. at 7 AM.
> hopefully the roads will be to warm for it to stick.



If it's important you might want to get you a motel a little closer to your destination. That's a might, not a for sure.......yet.


----------



## DDD

Right now I am most interested in the ensembles of the GFS.  Those are what the operational run is pulled from and I am super interested.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just wait for the 3k and 4k NAM models, you will like the progression of the system on them better than the NAM or GFS. They will almost be in range this evening.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> Chattanooga has obviously deployed it's anti-snow dome once again.



It's been in place for all of my 43 years.


----------



## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> It's been in place for all of my 43 years.



I think it's time we took it down. By whatever means necessary.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> I think it's time we took it down. By whatever means necessary.



I'm a doc.  Did my residency at Erlanger.  Had a rare weekend off back in 2002.  Went out and partied pretty good that Friday night and retired to my home in North Chattanooga.  Saturday morning my phone starts ringing.  They want me to come in.  Turns out most the residents that were on that day couldn't get to the hospital as they had 2-4 inches of snow out in the suburbs.  All of downtown and points within 3-4 miles (which I lived in )had managed to stay at 33 degrees and only got cold rain.  So the snow dome cost me a vacation day.  Had to go in and work.  15 years later I'm still upset.


----------



## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm a doc.  Did my residency at Erlanger.  Had a rare weekend off back in 2002.  Went out and partied pretty good that Friday night and retired to my home in North Chattanooga.  Saturday morning my phone starts ringing.  They want me to come in.  Turns out most the residents that were on that day couldn't get to the hospital as they had 2-4 inches of snow out in the suburbs.  All of downtown and points within 3-4 miles (which I lived in )had managed to stay at 33 degrees and only got cold rain.  So the snow dome cost me a vacation day.  Had to go in and work.  15 years later I'm still upset.



That is simply unacceptable. Vengeance is ours.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> That is simply unacceptable. Vengeance is ours.



I'm the dummy that answered the phone.  

But vengeance sounds good anyway.


----------



## DDD

Have mercy.  Lot's of goodies in there boys and girls.


----------



## malak05

The GEF ensembles look really really good for I-20 most have a good snow event for Georgia and it was north probably a tick further N overall with snow then the GFS ops. The Ukmet model came in colder still not where need it but if Euro and Ukmet trend colder it builds confidence toward GFS solution on temps at least


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> Have mercy.  Lot's of goodies in there boys and girls.



Man over 3/4 good solutions that's a strong ensemble map


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Have mercy.  Lot's of goodies in there boys and girls.



Looking better! Keep that NW shift!!!!!


----------



## bilgerat

I like the bottom center one


----------



## georgiaboy0311

E15 woohoo!


----------



## PappyHoel

All but 3 of those show snow on me. Bring it


----------



## toyota4x4h

e16! Honestly I just want enough to go play in at the farm Saturday! Couple inches!


----------



## mammajamma

DDD said:


> Have mercy.  Lot's of goodies in there boys and girls.



This is so interesting!  After following you for a few years, I'm learning so much.  

What exactly are we looking at?  The way I see this (which is probably wrong) is this is the weather for every few hours between Jan 4 and Jan 8.  Or is this a summary of all of the projections coming in?

Thank you!


----------



## glue bunny

DDD..Is the pic of all the maps an hourly showing of whats to happen...maybe?


----------



## DDD

mammajamma said:


> This is so interesting!  After following you for a few years, I'm learning so much.
> 
> What exactly are we looking at?  The way I see this (which is probably wrong) is this is the weather for every few hours between Jan 4 and Jan 8.  Or is this a summary of all of the projections coming in?
> 
> Thank you!



The GFS cranks out multiple solutions.  These are those multiples and then it cranks out an operational run which is basically a mean of the ensembles.  

I am liking our chances but I wish there was more model agreement.  I still urge caution until we get inside of 24-48 hours... which... we will be there in about 12 hours.


----------



## mguthrie

Talking head on tv cancelled the snow event. We can all go home now


----------



## malak05

mammajamma said:


> This is so interesting!  After following you for a few years, I'm learning so much.
> 
> What exactly are we looking at?  The way I see this (which is probably wrong) is this is the weather for every few hours between Jan 4 and Jan 8.  Or is this a summary of all of the projections coming in?
> 
> Thank you!



This is a collection of multiple runs of GFS with varying details in the model to spit out different results. The GFS ensembles and GFS ops are usually supposed to be similar as GFS op is a extrapolated thru the ensembles I believe.


----------



## toyota4x4h

mguthrie said:


> Talking head on tv cancelled the snow event. We can all go home now



The local chatt guy says dusting for our area and rain likely in Atlanta area. He said that one model run that ddd posted wouldn't happen in his opinion


----------



## malak05

Well Euro is off to the races.... We want stream separation, a little less amped to help it get cold here before moisture gets here...


----------



## DDD

mguthrie said:


> Talking head on tv cancelled the snow event. We can all go home now



Which one?


----------



## rospaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Interesting to me, because this winter stuff is a chin scratcher for me. I've never associated vorticity with moisture availability. I use it in STS analysis for the presence of turbulence at various mb levels (height) for comparing crossovers and potential for rotation in storms. I do use Lifted Index to project the potential for moisture at height along with CAPE and Vorticity for the volatility of a system.
> 
> .



I thought this was a english speaking forum???  NOT some mex jibberish!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mguthrie said:


> Talking head on tv cancelled the snow event. We can all go home now


----------



## malak05

Euro actually did improve for GA compared to previous runs... It came in a little colder moisture matches up well with the GFS actually .50 to .60 during Saturday main period.

It's temps on the Euro that's the problem if we move another couple of degrees I think you get something very GFSish for the West areas of the state. Needs to continue this cold trend over the next few runs though.

Fixed it's uglier but it's mine haha....

light blue area 2-3 inches
black line area 1- 1/2 inches
light grey 1 inch
lighter grey 1/2 snowfall

all and all improvement haha


----------



## jbird1

The models are


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> Euro actually did improve for GA compared to previous runs... It came in a little colder moisture matches up well with the GFS actually .50 to .60 during Saturday main period.
> 
> It's temps on the Euro that's the problem if we move another couple of degrees I think you get something very GFSish for the West areas of the state. Needs to continue this cold trend over the next few runs though.



Be careful posting the EURO maps, wxbell has a user agreement that you are not supposed to post EURO maps unless it's been posted by them or Ryan Maue or Joe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> That is simply unacceptable. Vengeance is ours.





RinggoldGa said:


> I'm the dummy that answered the phone.
> 
> But vengeance sounds good anyway.





toyota4x4h said:


> e16! Honestly I just want enough to go play in at the farm Saturday! Couple inches!



Here are the 4km and 3km coming into range showing how this system, IF it proves out, will progress from the NW to the SE across our state as it enters. That is all of course, if it is cold enough chasing the moisture as it moves through. 

So, as was stated in the movie "Dumb and Dumber"; "So I have a chance?" yes, you have a chance, IF it proves out. It will move through fast so don't expect it to dump much or stick around too long, IF it happens. 

3km is a little stingier on quantity than 4km is. That only proves how difficult this event is to nail down.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Well work will be a living nightmare the next 2 days..


----------



## stuart smith

It's going to snow....


----------



## toyota4x4h

Local fb weather page I follow just posted a map from Atlanta nws showing anywhere from the city north around 1" total and that's max. Said that's most likely to happen. Anyway it goes I done told the gf to take off Friday and head up Thursday evening! All these maps going around its confusing for me so I typically stick with you guys on here!


----------



## rolltidega

Some snow is better than none but I would love to see over 4 inches of the white stuff in Paulding!


----------



## PappyHoel

toyota4x4h said:


> Local fb weather page I follow just posted a map from Atlanta nws showing anywhere from the city north around 1" total and that's max. Said that's most likely to happen. Anyway it goes I done told the gf to take off Friday and head up Thursday evening! All these maps going around its confusing for me so I typically stick with you guys on here!



Cold rain


----------



## Jeff C.

jbird1 said:


> The models are


...


----------



## turkeyhunter835

malak05 said:


> Euro actually did improve for GA compared to previous runs... It came in a little colder moisture matches up well with the GFS actually .50 to .60 during Saturday main period.
> 
> It's temps on the Euro that's the problem if we move another couple of degrees I think you get something very GFSish for the West areas of the state. Needs to continue this cold trend over the next few runs though.
> 
> Fixed it's uglier but it's mine haha....
> 
> light blue area 2-3 inches
> black line area 1- 1/2 inches
> light grey 1 inch
> lighter grey 1/2 snowfall
> 
> all and all improvement haha



lol I tried to follow U on that


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Yay 2-3 inches! And thanks for including the counties on that map.


----------



## smokey30725

Need this to keep shifting NW. 1/2" ain't gonna cut it!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> Need this to keep shifting NW. 1/2" ain't gonna cut it!



Get them beagles to dancing!


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Get them beagles to dancing!



Only got one that can dance now. One had to be put down and the other had spinal surgery. But don't worry, mama dog can still cut a rug!


----------



## 91xjgawes

malak05 said:


> Euro actually did improve for GA compared to previous runs... It came in a little colder moisture matches up well with the GFS actually .50 to .60 during Saturday main period.
> 
> It's temps on the Euro that's the problem if we move another couple of degrees I think you get something very GFSish for the West areas of the state. Needs to continue this cold trend over the next few runs though.
> 
> Fixed it's uglier but it's mine haha....
> 
> light blue area 2-3 inches
> black line area 1- 1/2 inches
> light grey 1 inch
> lighter grey 1/2 snowfall
> 
> all and all improvement haha




Hope this is wrong. We want snow!


----------



## bilgerat

I don't, snow, snow go away


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Well, when percentage chance maps start coming out from the NWS then it is officially a forecast, and unofficially likely to be a bust before it happens. 

Anyway, here it is;


----------



## Arrow3

So, in plain English. .... What do yall think is gonna happen?  I've got family coming into town from Charlotte Friday evening. .. I'm in the Athens area


----------



## NE GA Pappy

I love how that snow knows how to stop at the Habersham,Stephens and Franklin county lines, but dumps on Banks.


----------



## Head East

I vote no snow.  Please direct it toward Atlanta.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NE GA Pappy said:


> I love how that snow knows how to stop at the Habersham,Stephens and Franklin county lines, but dumps on Banks.



It's a conspiracy.....

See what VDare.com has to say about weather conspiracies, or maybe even Patrick J. Buchanan.....


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> Only got one that can dance now. One had to be put down and the other had spinal surgery. But don't worry, mama dog can still cut a rug!



Dang man, I'm sorry, I know that hurt and I just ripped the wound back open again.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, when percentage chance maps start coming out from the NWS then it is officially a forecast, and unofficially likely to be a bust before it happens.



Well, they also said nothing was gonna happen for the Snowpocalypse event a few years ago and that was pretty doggone epic for the metro.


----------



## blood on the ground

Hey guy's... What's going on? Didn't know what all the hype and excitement was about?


----------



## DDD

NWS in ATL thinks the GFS has the best handle on the situation.  Interesting.  Also mentions the GEFS.  If some of those members of the GEFS were to verify... have mercy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Well, they also said nothing was gonna happen for the Snowpocalypse event a few years ago and that was pretty doggone epic for the metro.


Apparently they are hyper-sensitive to amateurs out performing what they spent good money on college for. They are starting to assimilate, but some are still out in left field and bucking the conversion. 


blood on the ground said:


> Hey guy's... What's going on? Didn't know what all the hype and excitement was about?


Idjit. 


DDD said:


> NWS in ATL thinks the GFS has the best handle on the situation.  Interesting.  Also mentions the GEFS.  If some of those members of the GEFS were to verify... have mercy.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Apparently they are hyper-sensitive to amateurs out performing what they spent good money on college for. They are starting to assimilate, but some are still out in left field and bucking the conversion.
> 
> Idjit.



I hope they remain cautious, though. Too many people under-prepare throughout the year and then panic when the main mets say there's a chance for something. I'd prefer the mets be able to be real and say there are chances of things in the models, not strong enough to call predictions, much like you guys do, and then encourage people to slowly prepare over the time period leading up. 

T-24 hours isn't the time to bumrush Home Depot and the grocery store for everything. That's the time for the gotchas that you missed.


----------



## PappyHoel

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I hope they remain cautious, though. Too many people under-prepare throughout the year and then panic when the main mets say there's a chance for something. I'd prefer the mets be able to be real and say there are chances of things in the models, not strong enough to call predictions, much like you guys do, and then encourage people to slowly prepare over the time period leading up.
> 
> T-24 hours isn't the time to bumrush Home Depot and the grocery store for everything. That's the time for the gotchas that you missed.



I always have French toast supplies ready to go.


----------



## malak05

Well NAM is very continues to spill over and show improvement toward the GFS


----------



## elfiii

PappyHoel said:


> I always have French toast supplies ready to go.



I need to pick up a fresh bottle or two of 15 Y/O Glenlivet. That, a pack of hotdogs and some buns and I'm good to go.


----------



## malak05

That is a trend to me it seems and as NAM comes closer to it's wheel house I would expect moisture output to continue to improve and be more accurate so the spread of these would expand to the NW and SE of the band and build more of a GFS type look


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I hope they remain cautious, though. Too many people under-prepare throughout the year and then panic when the main mets say there's a chance for something. I'd prefer the mets be able to be real and say there are chances of things in the models, not strong enough to call predictions, much like you guys do, and then encourage people to slowly prepare over the time period leading up.
> 
> T-24 hours isn't the time to bumrush Home Depot and the grocery store for everything. That's the time for the gotchas that you missed.



The only problem I have with that, and where I disagree in a certain professors terminology, calling amateur "fake weather news" dangerous, is this; During a severe weather threat, misinformation could lead to someone not taking the proper precautions. During a winter weather event, who cares if it causes someone to buy firewood, kerosene or a generator? Fact of the matter is, If T - 24hr is when the official GO command is given for an official forecast that is doom and gloom, or even a moderate event then it is beyond too late for many to prepare. 

If anyone's been paying attention gas prices have made a healthy jump in Atl just on the chance of an event this weekend. Imagine only 24 hours out the chaos that occurs in the grocery stores, gas lines, kerosene getting depleted in a 12 hour period and firewood guys can't keep up or run out in a matter of hours. 

It's the same hot button scenario that happened with the first gasline break. Give folks plenty of heads up for the potential of incoming weather, let the ones smart enough to do so heed that advice and prepare. Nothing lost, no harm. 

I certainly haven't figured out where it is dangerous yet. Waiting until T -24 is definitely potentially life threatening, especially for the elderly.

Now, all of that being said, the same agency that put out the percentage chances of accumulation amounts also just put this out. 



> ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY
> AND SATURDAY...
> 
> Confidence is increasing for widespread winter precipitation late Friday through early Saturday. While it is still early to specify precipitation type or accumulations for any one location, the current forecast calls for mostly snow possibly mixed with rain at the onset of the event. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating snow is along and north of a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line.



Really??? And they wonder why folks don't trust the pro's. They forget which side of their mouth they are talking out of and the right hand is working on a different set of communications from the left hand. 


See entire statement here;

https://forecast-v3.weather.gov/products/locations/FFC/SPS/1


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> I need to pick up a fresh bottle or two of 15 Y/O Glenlivet. That, a pack of hotdogs and some buns and I'm good to go.



Don't forget the cole slaw to go on the dogs.


----------



## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't forget the cole slaw to go on the dogs.



Chili and cheese too.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> That is a trend to me it seems and as NAM comes closer to it's wheel house I would expect moisture output to continue to improve and be more accurate so the spread of these would expand to the NW and SE of the band and build more of a GFS type look



I disagree. The 18z NAM has backed off a bit in narrowing the event timeline and moving towards a dryer event. 

Though the NWS has decided to start their dichotomous games in forecasting too soon, I still maintain this entire system has a shot at drying up and being a non-event by the time Friday evening gets here. 

High and dry, Bluebird skies. Everybody sing along!!!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The only problem I have with that, and where I disagree in a certain professors terminology, calling amateur "fake weather news" dangerous, is this; During a severe weather threat, misinformation could lead to someone not taking the proper precautions. During a winter weather event, who cares if it causes someone to buy firewood, kerosene or a generator? Fact of the matter is, If T - 24hr is when the official GO command is given for an official forecast that is doom and gloom, or even a moderate event then it is beyond too late for many to prepare.
> 
> If anyone's been paying attention gas prices have made a healthy jump in Atl just on the chance of an event this weekend. Imagine only 24 hours out the chaos that occurs in the grocery stores, gas lines, kerosene getting depleted in a 12 hour period and firewood guys can't keep up or run out in a matter of hours.
> 
> It's the same hot button scenario that happened with the first gasline break. Give folks plenty of heads up for the potential of incoming weather, let the ones smart enough to do so heed that advice and prepare. Nothing lost, no harm.
> 
> I certainly haven't figured out where it is dangerous yet. Waiting until T -24 is definitely potentially life threatening, especially for the elderly.
> 
> Now, all of that being said, the same agency that put out the percentage chances of accumulation amounts also just put this out.
> 
> 
> 
> Really??? And they wonder why folks don't trust the pro's. They forget which side of their mouth they are talking out of and the right hand is working on a different set of communications from the left hand.
> 
> 
> See entire statement here;
> 
> https://forecast-v3.weather.gov/products/locations/FFC/SPS/1



Information in and of itself is not dangerous. What the person does with it is where the rubber meets the road. Like you said, give measured reality to people and let the smart ones sort it out. 

My point in being cautious in their warnings is to not just say snow is in the model for X day and leave it at that. Quantify it in terms people can stand, tip the cards on how they turn model runs into forecasts, i.e. "we need a trend on this result to take it seriously", and let the people who would prepare get that way earlier rather than waiting until the models solidify into a forecast and have everyone rushing out last minute. They seem to be doing more of that this go round and I think the rise of social media based amateur mets, along with the utter failure to call snowpocalypse are driving that. I like where we're going with their forecasts and information, I'd like it to get better, but there is such a thing as too extreme as well. 

Anywho, what's my IMBY projection in the latest model runs? WooHoo, up to 6 according to Malak's post.


----------



## MariettaDawg

elfiii said:


> Chili and cheese too.



And Tums after that hooch lands on all that mess.


----------



## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I disagree. The 18z NAM has backed off a bit in narrowing the event timeline and moving towards a dryer event.
> 
> Though the NWS has decided to start their dichotomous games in forecasting too soon, I still maintain this entire system has a shot at drying up and being a non-event by the time Friday evening gets here.
> 
> High and dry, Bluebird skies. Everybody sing along!!!



I did see that the precp. field this run for parts of AL/GA had a clearing period early in the run but that's outside 48 hours and perhaps due to the more intense storms in the panhandle at the time robbing the moisture? It did recover and form a strong band per the models afterwards again outside of 48 hours too haha


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Information in and of itself is not dangerous. What the person does with it is where the rubber meets the road. Like you said, give measured reality to people and let the smart ones sort it out.
> 
> My point in being cautious in their warnings is to not just say snow is in the model for X day and leave it at that. Quantify it in terms people can stand, tip the cards on how they turn model runs into forecasts, i.e. "we need a trend on this result to take it seriously", and let the people who would prepare get that way earlier rather than waiting until the models solidify into a forecast and have everyone rushing out last minute. They seem to be doing more of that this go round and I think the rise of social media based amateur mets, along with the utter failure to call snowpocalypse are driving that. I like where we're going with their forecasts and information, I'd like it to get better, but there is such a thing as too extreme as well.
> 
> Anywho, what's my IMBY projection in the latest model runs? WooHoo, up to 6 according to Malak's post.




Interesting you should say that. I spent a good deal of time making a string of tweets to a local Met Professor giving him advise on how to earn the SocMed publics trust and interact with them on a respectable level. 

It all apparently fell on deaf ears. 

That being said, if you'll watch the grafix that the B'ham NWS office puts out they have the communication game down pat. Their grafix are very informative and easy to understand, and in a timely manner. 

Sorry I can't say the same for the PTC crowd, and I've been there twice, been trained by one of them and really like them. They are just like software developers, they speak geek and don't know how to convert that to average civilian lingo for some unknown reason. 

I also think that is why DDD and I get the small following we do. We aren't intelligent enough to use language that would confuse most folks.  Also, we aren't afraid of being wrong and taking the heat for it. Some of the ego's in the pro ranks are extremely fragile in that area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Case in point, B'Ham NWS just issued this grafic. 







Clear as glass, no questioning how much and where and if it doesn't happen they will throw a party, not crawl in a hole and melt like a Snowflake.


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Dang man, I'm sorry, I know that hurt and I just ripped the wound back open again.



No worries. Many more good memories than bad.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Interesting you should say that. I spent a good deal of time making a string of tweets to a local Met Professor giving him advise on how to earn the SocMed publics trust and interact with them on a respectable level.
> 
> It all apparently fell on deaf ears.
> 
> That being said, if you'll watch the grafix that the B'ham NWS office puts out they have the communication game down pat. Their grafix are very informative and easy to understand, and in a timely manner.
> 
> Sorry I can't say the same for the PTC crowd, and I've been there twice, been trained by one of them and really like them. They are just like software developers, they speak geek and don't know how to convert that to average civilian lingo for some unknown reason.
> 
> I also think that is why DDD and I get the small following we do. We aren't intelligent enough to use language that would confuse most folks.  Also, we aren't afraid of being wrong and taking the heat for it. Some of the ego's in the pro ranks are extremely fragile in that area.



Ego plays a part, I'm sure, but there's also public backlash for making a big call like that and being wrong when you're on the pro level, particularly where lives and livelihoods are concerned. 

They can't caveat their projections with the "I'm just an amateur so take this with a grain of salt". They could, however, and are with this storm it seems, using the "Some model runs are suggesting this, but it's too far out and we don't have enough consistency in the models to make any kind of reliable forecast. The best idea is to prepare early and keep a watchful eye..." I personally like that tack.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I also think that is why DDD and I get the small following we do. We aren't intelligent enough to use language that would confuse most folks.



My success as a physician is as much rooted in my speaking normal english/redneck as it is in diagnostic ability.  People prefer plain speech and explanations at their level.  

You and DDD have the "gift" of putting things in english/redneck in a way we non weather types can understand.  I know I for one greatly appreciate it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> No worries. Many more good memories than bad.



That's the outlook to have, my friend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Ego plays a part, I'm sure, but there's also public backlash for making a big call like that and being wrong when you're on the pro level, particularly where lives and livelihoods are concerned.



Like playing it safe and phoo phooing the ice storm that wasn't going to happen a few years ago that stranded thousands of Atlanta motorist on the freeways?

They've got to get over it and tell it like it is, what might happen, and what might not and let the people be the deniers of their won destinations. 

The sooner Government agencies let Natural Selection do it's work and quit trying to think for everybody this will get so much easier for everyone with half a brain.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Like playing it safe and phoo phooing the ice storm that wasn't going to happen a few years ago that stranded thousands of Atlanta motorist on the freeways?
> 
> They've got to get over it and tell it like it is, what might happen, and what might not and let the people be the deniers of their won destinations.
> 
> The sooner Government agencies let Natural Selection do it's work and quit trying to think for everybody this will get so much easier for everyone with half a brain.



That's what I meant earlier when I referred to Snowpocalypse being completely missed contributing to them being more forthcoming with the info this time.


----------



## DDD

Met Shack is updated.  

I am headed to the Grocery Store.


----------



## 95g atl

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If anyone's been paying attention gas prices have made a healthy jump in Atl just on the chance of an event this weekend. Imagine only 24 hours out the chaos that occurs in the grocery stores, gas lines, kerosene getting depleted in a 12 hour period and firewood guys can't keep up or run out in a matter of hours.
> 
> It's the same hot button scenario that happened with the first gasline break. Give folks plenty of heads up for the potential of incoming weather, let the ones smart enough to do so heed that advice and prepare. Nothing lost, no harm.
> 
> Really??? And they wonder why folks don't trust the pro's. They forget which side of their mouth they are talking out of and the right hand is working on a different set of communications from the left hand.



Exactly..... I filled the Tahoe up today and f350 diesel this AM.  Noticed it was about 25 cents a gallon more than a few days ago.  

Also was doing the weekly grocery shopping around noon today.  Noticed most of the bread was already GONE, same with burger and dog BUNS.  Still plenty of MILK.  That was weird.
Few more things on the shelves were 100% bare.  And banana's....there were not many left.  

Indeed.......I don't take many chances anymore since the "PROFESSIONAL" weather folks screwed up several times over the past few years.

Worse case, fire up the truck and head south to Florida for the week.  Ain't cold down there.


----------



## tcward

What happened to our Winter Weather threads?


----------



## malak05

18z GFS

GFS for me folks all day everyday


----------



## elfiii

MariettaDawg said:


> And Tums after that hooch lands on all that mess.



I got a stainless steel stomach.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Oh boy this is getting interesting.


----------



## smokey30725

Come on little NW corner of the state! Suck in that moisture!!!!!


----------



## Head East

3" of snow?  That's not snow. Smh.


----------



## bilgerat

is it time to panic yet?


----------



## Head East

:

I made the mistake of showing the wife the metshack thread...

She thinks exactly what bilge rats pic shows is gonna happen.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

tcward said:


> What happened to our Winter Weather threads?



Around the Campfire, very top, The Met Shack.


----------



## Head East

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Around the Campfire, very top, The Met Shack.



This.


----------



## PappyHoel

elfiii said:


> I need to pick up a fresh bottle or two of 15 Y/O Glenlivet. That, a pack of hotdogs and some buns and I'm good to go.



I need a new bottle, that's my favorite.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> Met Shack is updated.
> 
> I am headed to the Grocery Store.





tcward said:


> What happened to our Winter Weather threads?


Some jack wagons couldn't control themselves and we went to a new system of on topic weather warnings, advice and synopsis in the met shack.  The drivel and fun happens in these threads now.  


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Around the Campfire, very top, The Met Shack.



Now I'm hoping I can make it to the hunt club, maybe I will bring the 4 wheeler?


----------



## Cmp1

Head East said:


> 3" of snow?  That's not snow. Smh.



LOL LOL LOL,,,, agreed,,,,

It was 40deg yesterday,,,, today it got to 12deg,,,, high winds also,,,, back in the 30s by Monday,,,, to early for this cold,,,, this is February cold,,,,


----------



## Adam5

Normally, I would be all excited about snow coming to Atlanta, but not this time. 

I'm supposed to move my daughter from her Grandma's house in Roswell back to her dorm at Berry College in Rome on Sunday morning.


----------



## DDD

18Z GEFS... oh my... pick your favorite.


----------



## bilgerat

2 or 14 please


----------



## PappyHoel

Cmp1 said:


> LOL LOL LOL,,,, agreed,,,,
> 
> It was 40deg yesterday,,,, today it got to 12deg,,,, high winds also,,,, back in the 30s by Monday,,,, to early for this cold,,,, this is February cold,,,,



Everyone HOLD ON!  This just got serious!  We have the first appearance of SNOW DOGS!  It's definitely gonna snow.


----------



## DRB1313

I would like to order the e4 with a side of e11.  Thanks!


----------



## nickel back

DRB1313 said:


> I would like to order the e4 with a side of e11.  Thanks!



This....


----------



## elfiii

Put me down for e4. If it's going to snow I want a show stopper.

Oh yeah, I'll take the dead cat too.


----------



## DDD

elfiii said:


> Put me down for e4. If it's going to snow I want a show stopper.
> 
> Oh yeah, I'll take the dead cat too.



I can get you a dead cat...


----------



## TBean95

DRB1313 said:


> I would like to order the e4 with a side of e11.  Thanks!



YES this!


----------



## spotman

E4 for the win!!


----------



## 95g atl

..............and the Wednesday after this "storm", we are suppose to be back to around 60 for the next 10 days.


----------



## Head East

I think the 15 y/o scotch is the best choice.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> I can get you a dead cat...



I know. 

You got any Glenlivet at your crib?


----------



## DDD

NW GA folks should feel happy that the 18Z GFS included them.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Praying


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> 18Z GEFS... oh my... pick your favorite.



I'll take E4 for $100, Alex.





.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

I can't wait to play in the snow!!! lol


----------



## DDD

I would also like to point out that Dublin, GA gets 0" of snow out of this storm, despite a guy who insisted a blizzard was inbound and on top of that Dublin, GA would be getting snow.

I hope he enjoys his rain.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

I'm ready for this! Bring it on.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm ready for this! Bring it on.



Ok, I won't be coming to your house for emergency rations.


----------



## bilgerat

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm ready for this! Bring it on.




your low on paper towels too


----------



## turkeyhunter835

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm ready for this! Bring it on.



Omg ha ha ha ha ha


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> I would also like to point out that Dublin, GA gets 0" of snow out of this storm, despite a guy who insisted a blizzard was inbound and on top of that Dublin, GA would be getting snow.
> 
> I hope he enjoys his rain.



The Oracle has fallen.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> The Oracle has fallen.



They don't stay down. They are like Weebles.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes




----------



## Bob Shaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They don't stay down. They are like Weebles.



Do they wobble?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Bob Shaw said:


> Do they wobble?



Very much, especially when pressured from external forces.


----------



## PappyHoel

69 viewers.  When's the next model run?


----------



## turkeyhunter835




----------



## DDD

Latest NAM is moisture starved.  Driest of all models.  I am throwing it out.


----------



## Dustin Pate

elfiii said:


> I know.
> 
> You got any Glenlivet at your crib?



I've got some 12 yr here and enough shine to cure a cough or 100.  Bring on a blizzard.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NAM running now. Follows the Euro and totally abandons the GFS. DDD is not going to like this. 

HIGH AND DRY WITH A BLUEBIRD SKY

Everybody sing along!!!


----------



## topfuelgirl

Hopefully the snow dogs will have a reason to dance!!! ?☃️


----------



## curtis04

For some reason my page isn't updating with yalls new posts. Shows them on main page but now here the last post I see is #536 anyone have any idea to fix this?


----------



## curtis04

Not even showing my post but is showing on main page as I just posted!!


----------



## 91xjgawes

Can't see any new post.


----------



## smokey30725

Come on snow!!!!!


----------



## blood on the ground

What did I miss?


----------



## CharlesH

I can't see past post 536.…..


----------



## Matt.M

Can anyone else see past Miggie's post 536?  I can't see anything past that post but do see people posting afterwards.


----------



## Stonewall 2

Same here!


----------



## CharlesH

Matt.M said:


> Can anyone else see past Miggie's post 536?  I can't see anything past that post but do see people posting afterwards.



Your post is the first I've seen past it!  Maybe we're over the hump....and hope that's not a sign of or luck to come....


----------



## Trigabby

Whatever Miggy posted was bad enough it almost broke the thread...


----------



## Shane Dockery

Same here. Not sure what happened, but once we got onto the 23rd page, I can now see posts.

So, what did we miss??


----------



## smokey30725

I thought it was just me, lol


----------



## Rockdale Buck

GFS is a big dog!


----------



## topfuelgirl

So Fox 5 and Channel 11 TV has called basically no snow for the metro. Both channels showed all the model maps. Ughhhhh!!!!


----------



## doenightmare

Brad Nitz says up to 3". I'm now onboard...........


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Brad is the best met ATL has to offer imo


----------



## smokey30725

Waiting on comments from our weather warriors!!


----------



## DDD

Feast ye eyes...


----------



## DDD

When I put my cursor over over Morgan county it says 11".


----------



## Rockdale Buck

DDD said:


> Feast ye eyes...



Booyahhhh!! MBY is the sweet spot!


----------



## smokey30725

Come on NW Georgia! You're killing me!!!!


----------



## TBean95

I am definitely going to need this to shift northwest so Paulding County gets more snow.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Northside always gets more, time for the southside to get its turn with the fun!


----------



## DDD

Canadian model is not a bad run either.


----------



## rospaw

Trigabby said:


> Whatever Miggy posted was bad enough it almost broke the thread...



This! 
So baaaaaad stuff da mex is posting......BAAAAD!


----------



## DDD

Great stats right here.

All Atlanta snow events over 3".  Now this is measured I believe at the airport.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

DDD do you think there will be any problems with it sticking? been kinda warm lately


----------



## rospaw

Rockdale Buck said:


> Northside always gets more, time for the southside to get its turn with the fun!



I believe this will change! For the last few days the weather GEEKS have been saying that it usually pushes more north than models show this far out.?? 
I just need two counties north to be in the heavy stuff! 

Pulled six sleds down today. When kids got home from school they saw me prepping sleds. They knew..... the fun will start SOON.  
Thanks again weather GEEKS (DDD& da MEX) for another year of winter weather forcasting!!!  Been following for 8 plus years..... GOOD STUFF!


----------



## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> DDD do you think there will be any problems with it sticking? been kinda warm lately



Not once the heavier returns come in.  It may not stick at first but it won't take much.


----------



## 91xjgawes

Maybe it will trend south a bit more...


----------



## rospaw

91xjgawes said:


> Maybe it will trend south a bit more...





NO!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Trigabby said:


> Whatever Miggy posted was bad enough it almost broke the thread...



Hint, when posting an embedded video, don't delete the phrase "fullscreen" out of it. It does bad things to that post and apparently everything before it on that page.


----------



## blood on the ground

Got me a half gallon of Mr Boston...new racetrack big gulp cup ... A carton of vantage cigarettes.... And a pantry full of sardines! Bring on the Blizzard!


----------



## DDD

Couldn't handle it, had to stay up.  

EURO goes to the GFS / Canadian models.  Paints 4" from Douglasville, through Atlanta, through mine and the mexican's backyard, to Gainesville, getting heavier as you go East.


----------



## DDD

This was posted on Social Media so I am re-posting it.  Here is your EURO clown map.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Nice!!


----------



## Rockdale Buck

WSW issued!


----------



## huntindawg

DDD, best guess at timing...didn't see it in the MetShack post, apologies if I missed it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Proud of the Atl Mets this morning. They are taking an average, mainly the latest NAM, in citing potential for 2-4" but interjecting how critical timing is to what we get and when. Primarily noting that by around noon on Saturday the event should be over and bluebird skies move in soon after. 

This is where it get's tricky. IF we have winter precip on the ground, even though the temps will be below or near freezing, the sun will glaze over any surface exposed, creating a worse hazard for Saturday night / Sunday morning. 

That was from JoAnne Feldman on Channel 5 this morning, and I think it was a very good synopsis of what they have to work with considering the inconsistency between models. She also reiterated that the totals could change, up or down as we get closer to the event. 

That's about as good as anyone could state it, and no IMBY answers are possible. This is a wait and see, prepare for the worst and hope for the best event.


----------



## deerbandit

I saw this on facebook this morning. Is this an older map or is this current? Just trying to see how accurate it my be.


----------



## Matt.M

Looks current to me.  We might not hot those numbers in totals, but we got us a snowstorm coming!!!!


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hint, when posting an embedded video, don't delete the phrase "fullscreen" out of it. It does bad things to that post and apparently everything before it on that page.



Good deeds don't go unpunished. You were only trying to help a virtual friend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerbandit said:


> I saw this on facebook this morning. Is this an older map or is this current? Just trying to see how accurate it my be.



The info on the map says it is an am run from this morning. 06z 05 Jan2017. Which translates to 1am edst, January 5th, 2017


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Good deeds don't go unpunished. You were only trying to help a virtual friend.



Yes, I virtually tried.


----------



## deerbandit

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The info on the map says it is an am run from this morning. 06z 05 Jan2017. Which translates to 1am edst, January 5th, 2017



Thank you. I get more interested in trying to read these things every time and get confused on how to tell when they are pulled.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerbandit said:


> Thank you. I get more interested in trying to read these things every time and get confused on how to tell when they are pulled.


If you've ever been trained in orienteering there's not a lot of difference. All of the info related to the data on the map is there, you just have to know where to look for it. And, just like different topo maps, different model products put it in different places. I think this is just to keep you on your toes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Rockdale Buck said:


> WSW issued!



Correction: WSWatch issued. 

Warning starts with a 'W' too, and it is important to delineate when abbreviating.


----------



## grizzlyblake

Is there any possibility of the snow being the big, wet stuff that ends up sticking to power lines and becoming heavy ice? 

I don't mind a snow day, but the fun level drops a lot when the power goes out.


----------



## grizzlyblake

Is there any possibility of the snow being the big, wet stuff that ends up sticking to power lines and becoming heavy ice? 

I don't mind a snow day, but the fun level drops a lot when the power goes out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

grizzlyblake said:


> Is there any possibility of the snow being the big, wet stuff that ends up sticking to power lines and becoming heavy ice?
> 
> I don't mind a snow day, but the fun level drops a lot when the power goes out.



There is a possibility it will start as a freezing precip and switch to a wet snow prior to tailing off as a dryer snow, IF and when it happens. 

It pays to always be prepared. 

But then, I think that is how we started this entire discussion about this system days ago.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

I hope people don't wait to the last minute to get ready... work was already bad yesterday


----------



## deerbandit

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There is a possibility it will start as a freezing precip and switch to a wet snow prior to tailing off as a dryer snow, IF and when it happens.
> 
> It pays to always be prepared.
> 
> But then, I think that is how we started this entire discussion about this system days ago.



How early are you thinking the precipitation will start?


----------



## PappyHoel

According to wunder ground dawsonville looks like a dusting of snow now.  Not excited


----------



## malak05

PappyHoel said:


> According to wunder ground dawsonville looks like a dusting of snow now.  Not excited



I thinking based on model trends and the way gulf system have performed since the pattern flip.... moisture plumes will over perform and the rain shield to the north will be more expansive which will bring that snow out and sorry  AccuWeather.com just flat wrong


----------



## JonathanG2013

PappyHoel said:


> According to wunder ground dawsonville looks like a dusting of snow now.  Not excited



Pappy you know not to trust those crazy sites. We are to trust the might DDD and the south of the border kid the Messican for all of our Winter Weather.


----------



## toyota4x4h

deerbandit said:


> How early are you thinking the precipitation will start?



DDD said in his met shack update last night after 3pm tomorrow for most areas.


----------



## smokey30725

Well, since NW Georgia is missing out on the fun from this storm, when is the next one coming??????


----------



## PappyHoel

JonathanG2013 said:


> Pappy you know not to trust those crazy sites. We are to trust the might DDD and the south of the border kid the Messican for all of our Winter Weather.



Thank you for talking me off the ledge. However I think wunderground has been fairly accurate.


----------



## bilgerat

smokey30725 said:


> Well, since NW Georgia is missing out on the fun from this storm, when is the next one coming??????



Jan 2018


----------



## shakey gizzard

The map I just saw is showing" lake effect."Lanier!


----------



## YankeeRedneck

Great sky over the ATL airport!


----------



## keithsto

Almost every run of the GFS since it picked up this event has had the snow bomb going off right above my house on the Morgan/Walton line.  I just hope we get some snow so I can do something I never thought I could do in Georgia...deer hunt in the snow.


----------



## PappyHoel

keithsto said:


> Almost every run of the GFS since it picked up this event has had the snow bomb going off right above my house on the Morgan/Walton line.  I just hope we get some snow so I can do something I never thought I could do in Georgia...deer hunt in the snow.



I think the woods will be full of hunters Saturday morning.  Like opening day.


----------



## Jeff C.

A buddy and I went out just playing around with deer after the season was over once after it snowed. We had a blast jumping deer and tracking them to their next hold up. They couldn't figure out how we kept getting back on them, no matter how many times they circled back around. 

I'd still hunt deer in snow.


----------



## Jeff C.

We were on private land though.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

PappyHoel said:


> Thank you for talking me off the ledge. However I think wunderground has been fairly accurate.



Yes been calling for it for a few days now, when the rest wasn't... the only app I use


----------



## StriperrHunterr

shakey gizzard said:


> The map I just saw is showing" lake effect."Lanier!



I'd love for that to happen, it'd drop a ton right on my house, but I'll believe it when I see it.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> This was posted on Social Media so I am re-posting it.  Here is your EURO clown map.



4" in North De-Kab. I can get down with that. Work your magic DDD!


----------



## DDD

Call map coming.


----------



## gacowboy

DDD said:


> Call map coming.



 Yeah Baby !!!


----------



## JonathanG2013

I hope we get enough snow to at least cover that dead cat.


----------



## PappyHoel

Everyone listen .... the call map is coming and the green light is on


----------



## smokey30725

Man, I hope my little corner is going to fare better than it looked last night.


----------



## DDD

Just letting this run of the GFS finish up.  I don't expect much change but I want to put up the latest maps on the GFS.

Right now, it might be even more snow this run... we shall see.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Just letting this run of the GFS finish up.  I don't expect much change but I want to put up the latest maps on the GFS.
> 
> Right now, it might be even more snow this run... we shall see.



You're ratcheting up the anticipation


----------



## smokey30725

Got my fingers and toes crossed!!!!!


----------



## PappyHoel

Refresh refresh refresh


----------



## deerbandit

Can anyone explain this to me please?


----------



## JosephSparks

Academy Sports in Athens has sleds and shovels for sale out front. The fix is on for the jinx. They are sold out. I swear I didn't buy the last sled there!


----------



## DCHunter

PappyHoel said:


> Refresh refresh refresh


I think you're refreshing the wrong thread.


----------



## smokey30725

Waiting on Triple D like........


----------



## DCHunter

DCHunter said:


> I think you're refreshing the wrong thread.


Maybe not, he's back in here now.


----------



## DDD

It's up in the Met Shack.


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> It's up in the Met Shack.



Did the latest GFS jog the NW change the predicted map in the Met Shack?


----------



## 91xjgawes

Looks like us around Augusta are sol!

Thanks for your work DDD!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Have I missed a predicted timeframe?  Overnight Friday into Saturday is the last I heard.


----------



## smokey30725

So, any other snow makers on the horizon?


----------



## deerbandit

DDD does you amount map take in the NW shift people were saying the new run was showing?


----------



## DDD

deerbandit said:


> DDD does you amount map take in the NW shift people were saying the new run was showing?



Yes.  The snow total map posted in that thread from the GFS is the latest.


----------



## DDD

91xjgawes said:


> Looks like us around Augusta are sol!
> 
> Thanks for your work DDD!



I would say Augusta is going to be in the 1-2" range.  Like I said, this map will change, so don't lose the faith.


----------



## Head East

DDD said:


> It's up in the Met Shack.



I told my wife about DDD a couple years ago.  She has been faithfully reading DDD posts since the ice storm a couple years ago.  This week:  Got her all ready for Snowmageddon in Augusta.   Now?


Where is G?   I don't see G?     Ask DDD where G is...

Please send the wife an explanation.


----------



## Head East

AH!! There is G!!!!


----------



## Head East

the wife says i need to learn to read the Georgia map...


----------



## blondiega1

We're in south Paulding, right on the D/E line.
BRING ON THE SNOW!!


----------



## malak05

I'll say this I'm at 42 in Dallas Ga currently and projected high was 56... It has till about 3-4 pm to to meet it's high over next 48 hours if temps are being overbaked could again have big impacts... GFS had me roughly at 54-56 range high by afternoon?


----------



## nickel back

how much freezing rain will there be in this for us folks in the F area of your map?????


----------



## deerbandit

DDD said:


> Yes.  The snow total map posted in that thread from the GFS is the latest.



Do you think it could shift more NW and also more accumulation?


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> I'll say this I'm at 42 in Dallas Ga currently and projected high was 56... It has till about 3-4 pm to to meet it's high over next 48 hours if temps are being overbaked could again have big impacts... GFS had me roughly at 54-56 range high by afternoon?



I am watching this as well.  If the cloud cover hangs in, it will never get that warm.  Have to wait and see.


----------



## DDD

deerbandit said:


> Do you think it could shift more NW and also more accumulation?



Obviously it could.  It came north on the last run, just not NW.

If it makes you feel any better the Canadian just went towards the NAM.  If that NAM ends up scoring this out after the GFS just swore up and down we were golden, I may jump off a tall bridge.


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> how much freezing rain will there be in this for us folks in the F area of your map?????



I don't think we are looking at a lot.  Yes, there will be some but I think given thicknesses in the atmosphere, it will either be snow or rain for the most part.  If there is freezing rain or sleet, it will be at the early onset when it's trying to switch over and won't amount to much.


----------



## 91xjgawes

DDD said:


> I would say Augusta is going to be in the 1-2" range.  Like I said, this map will change, so don't lose the faith.


----------



## willbuck

DDD - So this would not be a CAD event as evidence of a warm nose along the Ga/SC border - correct?  and - If the temps remain below predictions over the next couple days would the warm nose erode or is it a product of the low spinning across south Ga?

many thanks


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> I don't think we are looking at a lot.  Yes, there will be some but I think given thicknesses in the atmosphere, it will either be snow or rain for the most part.  If there is freezing rain or sleet, it will be at the early onset when it's trying to switch over and won't amount to much.



thanks....


----------



## Buckfever 2

So I guess you are near me ...I am in New Hope , in Dallas,ga 30132


----------



## smokey30725

Anything else of interest on the horizon?


----------



## DDD

willbuck said:


> DDD - So this would not be a CAD event as evidence of a warm nose along the Ga/SC border - correct?  and - If the temps remain below predictions over the next couple days would the warm nose erode or is it a product of the low spinning across south Ga?
> 
> many thanks



No  No CAD.  You need High pressure in place up over Virginia... this is nothing like that.


----------



## malak05

This is consensus agreement between a op and it's ensembles...I can't get a image but boy lots of big dogs in their with pretty much all bringing 2+ inches of snow for mentioned areas at the very least


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> Obviously it could.  It came north on the last run, just not NW.
> 
> If it makes you feel any better the Canadian just went towards the NAM.  If that NAM ends up scoring this out after the GFS just swore up and down we were golden, I may jump off a tall bridge.



My Marietta self does not like the NAM at the moment.


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> This is consensus agreement between a op and it's ensembles...I can't get a image but boy lots of big dogs in their with pretty much all bringing 2+ inches of snow for mentioned areas at the very least



Here you go.  MMMMM HMMMM....


----------



## parisinthe20s

My 13 yr old dog acts like a pup again when he sees snow so I hope Cherokee co doesn't get the shaft again. That 7.9 inches sounds lovely


----------



## MariettaDawg

ATL mets (ch. 2 and 5) sounding the alarm loudly on the Twitters.


----------



## deerbandit

Buckfever 2 said:


> So I guess you are near me ...I am in New Hope , in Dallas,ga 30132



I'm in SevenHills off Cedercrest Road.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Looks like the last GFS run shifted north from my area. Of course when this thing hits, it'll be "ground truth" mode. We'll see!!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I'll be in South Burke County hunting, so I expect cold rain with a flake mixed in. I hope Thomson scores an inch or two for Megan


----------



## Buckfever 2

deerbandit said:


> I'm in SevenHills of Cedercrest Road.



Man !!!! I hope we get it BIG TIME !!!


----------



## bilgerat

Ill take e4 or e5 please


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Lol...:: I'm at he little box of d,e and b


----------



## deerbandit

Buckfever 2 said:


> Man !!!! I hope we get it BIG TIME !!!



You and me both. Filling the gas can on he way home tonight so I can play with the four wheeler!


----------



## Rockdale Buck

I can't wait for Saturday morning!


----------



## nickel back

me, I wish it would come back south, if it keeps moving north its going to take what chance the south side has, to none


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD will make winter great again!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

PappyHoel said:


> DDD will make winter great again!



MWWGA just doesn't have the same presence as MAGA.


----------



## Lee

Super excited about the snow and thanks to all you guys who follow and post about it! Glad the kids are out of school too... but there are a lot of pastors (like myself) wondering about church on Sunday. 

We are making contingencies now. I know it depends on where you are and how much we get. To me it doesn't look like it's going to warm up a whole lot on Saturday afternoon. Any thoughts from the semi-pros on what conditions could be like?

And I'm with all you other Paulding people, hope we get it good!


----------



## CharlesH

deerbandit said:


> I'm in SevenHills off Cedercrest Road.



Howdy neighbor!


----------



## blondiega1

Mellish is now reporting that chances of a significant event are increasing.


.


----------



## RinggoldGa

I hope some of y'all with the ability and knowelge will perform a post mortem after we get the ground truth out of this system to determine which model had the best handle on this thing.


----------



## jbird1

In-House Mets, are we staring down the barrel of a bona fide Miller "A"??


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> In-House Mets, are we staring down the barrel of a bona fide Miller "A"??



It's very close to a Miller A minus the cold air is not totally in place when the precip shows up.


----------



## elfiii

MariettaDawg said:


> ATL mets (ch. 2 and 5) sounding the alarm loudly on the Twitters.



Kirk Mellish just updated. 1-4" in the ATL and may upgrade later.

You nailed it DDD.


----------



## deerbandit

CharlesH said:


> Howdy neighbor!



Hello neighbor. Where at in Sevenhills are you? I'm in the back of Naturewalk in the section called Riverwalk Manor up behind the shooting range.


----------



## DDD

I urge caution in thinking this thing is a lock.  As i just told a friend of mine this thing is going to walk the razor edge of being a fantastic snow for a lot of folks in N. GA and being a complete flop in a whole lot of GA.  

I HATE storms like this that walk the razor's edge... why can't it just be a lock?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

DDD said:


> I HATE storms like this that walk the razor's edge... why can't it just be a lock?



Cause it's Georgia.


----------



## DDD

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Cause it's Georgia.



This is true.  Getting snow in Alabama and Georgia is not easy.


----------



## NCHillbilly

I hope most of it stays down y'alls way. With the forecast here calling for single-digit temps Saturday and Sunday night, several inches of snow is going to be a big, frozen mess and people will die on the roads. And if the power goes out, people will be without heat at 5 degrees. Bring on spring.


----------



## Crakajak

DDD said:


> This is true.  Getting snow in Alabama and Georgia is not easy.



We appreciate all that you send our way.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> I urge caution in thinking this thing is a lock.  As i just told a friend of mine this thing is going to walk the razor edge of being a fantastic snow for a lot of folks in N. GA and being a complete flop in a whole lot of GA.
> 
> I HATE storms like this that walk the razor's edge... why can't it just be a lock?



Want the temps to bust on the low side tomorrow to help out of course


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> This is true.  Getting snow in Alabama and Georgia is not easy.



Neither is getting snow in my little slice of NW Georgia....


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, is this a sign of how this winter may progress or is it a case of "one and done"?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Isn't the 18z NAM starting at 2:35? Hope it changes back to bringing the higher amounts of snow back to Georgia.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Just upgraded to a Warning, with 4-6 being called in Hall county.


----------



## JonathanG2013

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Just upgraded to a Warning, with 4-6 being called in Hall county.



Striper where did you got to see the storm warning? Tried national weather service at weather.gov and they still show watch.  Just curious  

4-6 inches would be nice


----------



## StriperrHunterr

JonathanG2013 said:


> Striper where did you got to see the storm warning? Tried national weather service at weather.gov and they still show watch.  Just curious
> 
> 4-6 inches would be nice



PTC NWS  Facebook page. 
https://www.facebook.com/NWSAtlanta/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED


----------



## JonathanG2013

Cool saw weather.com updated yet.  I hope we get a good amount. My 3 yo has been wanting some snow to play in.


----------



## blondiega1

2:44pm NWS has upgraded watch to a warning.

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/





.


----------



## Cmp1

JonathanG2013 said:


> Cool saw weather.com updated yet.  I hope we get a good amount. My 3 yo has been wanting some snow to play in.



Bring your boy up here,,,, we will keep him busy in the snow,,,, he would have a ball,,,,,


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blondiega1 said:


> 2:44pm NWS has upgraded watch to a warning.
> 
> http://www.weather.gov/ffc/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .


----------



## Jeff Raines

I don't understand why y'all posting info from other weather sources.

DDD,has told y'all what is coming,when it's coming and how much is gonna get here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Kirk Mellish just updated. 1-4" in the ATL and may upgrade later.
> 
> You nailed it DDD.



It ain't happened yet.


----------



## toyota4x4h

I still have some hope we will see 2"! Guess only time will tell now! Im ready whichever way it goes! Makes me feel optimistic about a good snow this year since we are already seeing some systems come this early!


----------



## Paymaster

Low in International Falls tomorrow,-22*. Glad I ain't up there!


----------



## malak05

Well NAM back to backing up GFS now on the 18z run


----------



## StriperrHunterr

malak05 said:


> Well NAM back to backing up GFS now on the 18z run



I forget, is that good for snow lovers or bad?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Cmp1 said:


> Bring your boy up here,,,, we will keep him busy in the snow,,,, he would have a ball,,,,,



Cmp1 that sure is pretty. He would have a blast.


----------



## JonathanG2013

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I forget, is that good for snow lovers or bad?



Striper it is good for snow lovers.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

JonathanG2013 said:


> Striper it is good for snow lovers.



Thankya kindly.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Well NAM back to backing up GFS now on the 18z run



Yep, but the timeline on both GFS and NAM are much later than what the local Mets are preaching. When you get close to within 24 hours of an event it's pretty much a wait and see ground truth and watching radar event from there on out. There comes a point time before an event when models are useless. 

We've about reached that point.


----------



## elfiii

Cmp1 said:


> Bring your boy up here,,,, we will keep him busy in the snow,,,, he would have a ball,,,,,



That reminds me of Ron White's "You Can't Fix Stupid" show.

Ron White's wife - "What's the temperature outside?"

Ron White - "There isn't one."


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> That reminds me of Ron White's "You Can't Fix Stupid" show.
> 
> Ron White's wife - "What's the temperature outside?"
> 
> Ron White - "There isn't one."


----------



## CharlesH

deerbandit said:


> Hello neighbor. Where at in Sevenhills are you? I'm in the back of Naturewalk in the section called Riverwalk Manor up behind the shooting range.



I am up towards the front off of Bentleaf.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Just upgraded to a Warning, with 4-6 being called in Hall county.



Bring it


----------



## StriperrHunterr

turkeyhunter835 said:


> Bring it



Absolutely bring it, I'm just surprised they're actually putting numbers like that on the map.


----------



## Cmp1

JonathanG2013 said:


> Cmp1 that sure is pretty. He would have a blast.



Might be pretty but we hit a high of 6deg today,,,, dress your boy warm, bring him up, he can play with the dogs in the snow,,,,quickly,,,, lol lol lol,,,, back in the 30s by Monday,,,, thank the good lord,,,,


----------



## malak05

Well Dallas High this morning was 56 we hit 53 so off by 3 degrees


----------



## BlueLghtning

I hope Newnan (Coweta) stays in the path of some decent snow. We usually get passed over on most storms. We'll see how it works out. 

Thanks for all the weather guys that are sharing their thoughts. If it's not icy, I might have to take out one of our dual sport motorcycles to go play in it.


----------



## DDD

Let me be crystal clear on this.  

Yes, the GFS has been rock solid consistent, however it has ticked North a little with the last run.  The NAM has now moved BACK towards the GFS.  This thing is going to walk a thin line between something and nothing.  I wish it was more of a lock.

I think the NWS has to go with the GFS on this one because of the consistency.  The EURO has waffeled, the CMC has waffeled and the NAM has waffeled.  

Mexican, your NAM has flip flopped more than a 12" spotted bass in the bottom of an aluminum boat.  That thing has been awful.


----------



## jbird1

DDD and this whole deal reminds me of Striker in Airplane...lol


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> DDD and this whole deal reminds me of Striker in Airplane...lol




Exactly.


----------



## DDD

Some inside skinny for my GON peeps.  

This is the area that is going to get hit the hardest, because the cold temps are in, the convection of precip is higher and it's the perfect area for heavy precip.  This area will grow if the precip comes in heavy or more wide spread.

How the GFS has this, inside the black area is why the GFS is dropping the hammer.  There maybe sleet mixed in which may be why it's showing 5-8" of snow.  That may have ice mixed in.


----------



## PappyHoel

How much snow at my hunt club.


----------



## deerbandit

DDD said:


> Some inside skinny for my GON peeps.
> 
> This is the area that is going to get hit the hardest, because the cold temps are in, the convection of precip is higher and it's the perfect area for heavy precip.  This area will grow if the precip comes in heavy or more wide spread.
> 
> How the GFS has this, inside the black area is why the GFS is dropping the hammer.  There maybe sleet mixed in which may be why it's showing 5-8" of snow.  That may have ice mixed in.



I need the black line to go about 10 miles north toward the Paulding, Cobb, Bartow line and I'm in play for the hammering!


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> Some inside skinny for my GON peeps.
> 
> This is the area that is going to get hit the hardest, because the cold temps are in, the convection of precip is higher and it's the perfect area for heavy precip.  This area will grow if the precip comes in heavy or more wide spread.
> 
> How the GFS has this, inside the black area is why the GFS is dropping the hammer.  There maybe sleet mixed in which may be why it's showing 5-8" of snow.  That may have ice mixed in.



De-Kab Co. in the heart of the jackpot zone!


----------



## adavis

Paulding Schools just announced early dismissal for Friday. Elementary @ 12:30, Middle and High @1:30. No ASP of after school activities.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Let me be crystal clear on this.
> 
> Yes, the GFS has been rock solid consistent, however it has ticked North a little with the last run.  The NAM has now moved BACK towards the GFS.  This thing is going to walk a thin line between something and nothing.  I wish it was more of a lock.
> 
> I think the NWS has to go with the GFS on this one because of the consistency.  The EURO has waffeled, the CMC has waffeled and the NAM has waffeled.
> 
> Mexican, your NAM has flip flopped more than a 12" spotted bass in the bottom of an aluminum boat.  That thing has been awful.



dang that north tick,its about to give my part sleet, freezing rain, and just a cold rain


----------



## parisinthe20s

Ah well, Cherokee isn't in the hammer zone but hopefully we'll still get a lil something. Move that black line just a liiiiittle bit please.


----------



## nickel back

deerbandit said:


> I need the black line to go about 10 miles north toward the Paulding, Cobb, Bartow line and I'm in play for the hammering!



no, sick of the north tick


----------



## caldwd1

Looks like Jackson county is in the hammer zone...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Let me be crystal clear on this.
> 
> Yes, the GFS has been rock solid consistent, however it has ticked North a little with the last run.  The NAM has now moved BACK towards the GFS.  This thing is going to walk a thin line between something and nothing.  I wish it was more of a lock.
> 
> I think the NWS has to go with the GFS on this one because of the consistency.  The EURO has waffeled, the CMC has waffeled and the NAM has waffeled.
> 
> Mexican, your NAM has flip flopped more than a 12" spotted bass in the bottom of an aluminum boat.  That thing has been awful.



The 4km nam has it too warm to be snow until around 3am Saturday. 

The 3km nam has me singing; High and Dry with a Bluebird Sky!!!

Radar and ground truth. Sticking with any model from here on in is like betting on which body part Jeffrey Dahmer will eat first.


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> Some inside skinny for my GON peeps.
> 
> This is the area that is going to get hit the hardest, because the cold temps are in, the convection of precip is higher and it's the perfect area for heavy precip.  This area will grow if the precip comes in heavy or more wide spread.
> 
> How the GFS has this, inside the black area is why the GFS is dropping the hammer.  There maybe sleet mixed in which may be why it's showing 5-8" of snow.  That may have ice mixed in.



So it signals a huge thump in the box but seems like it backed off overall. Amirite?


----------



## PappyHoel

All joking and fun posts aside.  I was thinking about this on the ride home today.  

I know a lot of us are planning on hunting in this weather.  We aren't used to it.  Driving conditions to and from your hunting property may be dangerous.  The weather will be freezing with moisture on your clothes and feet.  You need to be very prepared, more so than on your regular hunt.  Dress warm, bring supplies to make a fire if needed, think about maybe staying over night.  Your stand may be slippery from ice.  Trees that were damaged during the last ice storm may fall.  Chainsaw?  Can you get back home after you've been out there in the snow?  

I'm going to bring a buddy or I won't go.  I'm also going to make a judgement call before I drive 15 miles.  I may not hunt my way back spot but hunt close to the truck.  

These are things I have been thinking about and I wanted to share.  Maybe it will help someone?


----------



## GA DAWG

I know if it don't do nothin. TV Mets have failed big time.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I know if it don't do nothin. TV Mets have failed big time.



Not so. There is still not resolution among all of the ensembles, but if they call nothing and it happens nobody will be prepared and will want to hang them. 

What DDD has shown in the process of data they have to sift through to get collaborative agreement among models is only about 1% of 1% of the data they have to look at. When you have thousands of pieces of data and nothing leads to a solution you have to at some point call the ball and hope it snags a wire.


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not so. There is still not resolution among all of the ensembles, but if they call nothing and it happens nobody will be prepared and will want to hang them.
> 
> What DDD has shown in the process of data they have to sift through to get collaborative agreement among models is only about 1% of 1% of the data they have to look at. When you have thousands of pieces of data and nothing leads to a solution you have to at some point call the ball and hope it snags a wire.



Are you maintaining your blue bird skies forecast?


----------



## nickel back

GA DAWG said:


> I know if it don't do nothin. TV Mets have failed big time.



it could bust,matter in fact it could bust easier than it could snow.....


----------



## PappyHoel

nickel back said:


> it could bust,matter in fact it could bust easier than it could snow.....



It won't bust.  The snow dogs have made an appearance.


----------



## 95g atl

PappyHoel said:


> All joking and fun posts aside.  I was thinking about this on the ride home today.
> 
> I know a lot of us are planning on hunting in this weather.  We aren't used to it.  Driving conditions to and from your hunting property may be dangerous.  The weather will be freezing with moisture on your clothes and feet.  You need to be very prepared, more so than on your regular hunt.  Dress warm, bring supplies to make a fire if needed, think about maybe staying over night.  Your stand may be slippery from ice.  Trees that were damaged during the last ice storm may fall.  Chainsaw?  Can you get back home after you've been out there in the snow?
> 
> I'm going to bring a buddy or I won't go.  I'm also going to make a judgement call before I drive 15 miles.  I may not hunt my way back spot but hunt close to the truck.
> 
> These are things I have been thinking about and I wanted to share.  Maybe it will help someone?



Great plan....!
I won't be going to the hunt club this weekend, though I will likely make the 100 yard walk down the hill from my back porch into my stand.  If it gets too cold, it's 100 yards back to the warm house 


stay safe y'all


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Are you maintaining your blue bird skies forecast?



It will be bluebird skys at some point on Saturday. 

There are too many disagreements just among a handful of models. What time the moisture gets here and moves through vs what time the cold air gets here and collides with it, or not. 

The safe thing to do was call a winter weather watch. 

Still not sold on the warning. If it happens, great, I hope it happens in epic fashion. That is how the algorithms get adjusted, from failure. 

If it doesn't happen then they still get adjusted, for failure. 

Win, win on our part for future wx intel. 

As for the Music Ministers Weather Forecasters Union, Local #666, they are busted again.


----------



## PappyHoel

95g atl said:


> Great plan....!
> I won't be going to the hunt club this weekend, though I will likely make the 100 yard walk down the hill from my back porch into my stand.  If it gets too cold, it's 100 yards back to the warm house
> 
> 
> stay safe y'all



That's my fall back plan.  I probably have more deer out back anyway.   If it's ice on the road I'm not chancing it.  No deer is worth it.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Mayretta City Schools releasing early tomorrow .


----------



## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The 4km nam has it too warm to be snow until around 3am Saturday.
> 
> The 3km nam has me singing; High and Dry with a Bluebird Sky!!!
> 
> Radar and ground truth. Sticking with any model from here on in is like betting on which body part Jeffrey Dahmer will eat first.



Don't be harshin' on our snowpocalypse dude!


----------



## PappyHoel

elfiii said:


> Don't be harshin' on our snowpocalypse dude!



Bunch a Debby Downers this snow season.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Don't be harshin' on our snowpocalypse dude!



Somebody's gotta keep it real.


----------



## PappyHoel

Sheeeew...20 mph winds with frozen pines that are unstable from the last ice storm.  I may talk myself out of hunting in this.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not so. There is still not resolution among all of the ensembles, but if they call nothing and it happens nobody will be prepared and will want to hang them.
> 
> What DDD has shown in the process of data they have to sift through to get collaborative agreement among models is only about 1% of 1% of the data they have to look at. When you have thousands of pieces of data and nothing leads to a solution you have to at some point call the ball and hope it snags a wire.



They are calling for 2"-11" here. Seems all locked in firm agreement.  

A pox on this snow and 5* frozen dead gray world crap anyway. Bring back warm sunshine, biting fish, tweeting birds, green leaves, flowers, and sitting on the porch enjoying a cool breeze and a cold beer at night.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> They are calling for 2"-11" here. Seems all locked in firm agreement.
> 
> A pox on this snow and 5* frozen dead gray world crap anyway. Bring back warm sunshine, biting fish, tweeting birds, green leaves, flowers, and sitting on the porch enjoying a cool breeze and a cold beer at night.



OH, it's definitely going to happen on your little hilltop. The Models have all been locked in on that from day one.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> They are calling for 2"-11" here. Seems all locked in firm agreement.
> 
> A pox on this snow and 5* frozen dead gray world crap anyway. Bring back warm sunshine, biting fish, tweeting birds, green leaves, flowers, and sitting on the porch enjoying a cool breeze and a cold beer at night.



Short of the green leaves, that sounds like last week at my house. Heck, even the yard is turning green in spots again.


----------



## TBean95

deerbandit said:


> I need the black line to go about 10 miles north toward the Paulding, Cobb, Bartow line and I'm in play for the hammering!



Agreed!


----------



## elfiii

NCHillbilly said:


> They are calling for 2"-11" here. Seems all locked in firm agreement.
> 
> A pox on this snow and 5* frozen dead gray world crap anyway. Bring back warm sunshine, biting fish, tweeting birds, green leaves, flowers, and sitting on the porch enjoying a cool breeze and a cold beer at night.



That's about 90 days away for us.


----------



## malak05

Why am I the one getting crazy looks by everyone cause I got dog shampoo, collar, yogurt and water when everyone else has a month supply of food I was already prepared sorry haha


----------



## normaldave

So all the back and forth between the TV mets, this map, that map, models, and alleged criminal prognosticating from Dublin,  and the prior Airplane II post, remind me of this...

Just replace the characters with your favorite TV met or online forecast expert, and imagine DDD as "Alan North" in the squad room scene in the aftermath of the "winter storm warning" issuance, heck even Miguel as Frank Drebin? bam, we've got our own winter storm show!



Can we get a little more snow toward NW Georgia in the next episode?


----------



## elfiii

normaldave said:


> So all the back and forth between the TV mets, this map, that map, models, and alleged criminal prognosticating from Dublin,  and the prior Airplane II post, remind me of this...
> 
> Just replace the characters with your favorite TV met or online forecast expert, and imagine DDD as "Alan North" in the squad room scene in the aftermath of the "winter storm warning" issuance, heck even Miguel as Frank Drebin? bam, we've got our own winter storm show!
> 
> 
> 
> Can we get a little more snow toward NW Georgia in the next episode?


----------



## malak05

Why am I the one getting crazy looks by everyone cause I got dog shampoo, collar, yogurt and water when everyone else has a month supply of food at store sorry I was prepared lol


----------



## Greene728

I'm square in the middle of DDD's sweet spot. Not sure I'm happy about it either cause I'm worried about the freezing rain conditions some are still reporting as possible. 
Either way it is what it is. 
Bring on spring and MC's area of expertise!
(Hold the spinny things though!)


----------



## Matt.M

School closings are spreading like tales of a monster buck.....


----------



## PappyHoel

Matt.M said:


> School closings are spreading like tales of a monster buck.....



This one was hit by a Kia in front of a school.  Closed it down.


----------



## smokey30725

Soooo.....what's next to look forward to?


----------



## deerbandit

So do you weather guys really think it's not going to happen now?


----------



## Rockdale Buck

How long y'all think the snow sticks around before it melts??


----------



## Paymaster

NCHillbilly said:


> They are calling for 2"-11" here. Seems all locked in firm agreement.
> 
> A pox on this snow and 5* frozen dead gray world crap anyway. Bring back warm sunshine, biting fish, tweeting birds, green leaves, flowers, and sitting on the porch enjoying a cool breeze and a cold beer at night.





smokey30725 said:


> Short of the green leaves, that sounds like last week at my house. Heck, even the yard is turning green in spots again.



This was happening in Carrollton in front of Tanner Hospital Monday.


----------



## Adam5

Rockdale Buck said:


> How long y'all think the snow sticks around before it melts??



The last time I look Atlanta was not supposed to make it much above freezing until Monday.


----------



## PappyHoel

What about the nam and gfs run tonight?


----------



## blood on the ground

I'll be on the roof propped up against the tv antenna tomorrow night waiting on the thunder snow! And when I run outa beerz I will ride the cooler off top like a Shetland pony!


----------



## georgiaboy0311

Anymore news?


----------



## greg_n_clayton

blood on the ground said:


> I'll be on the roof propped up against the tv antenna tomorrow night waiting on the thunder snow! And when I run outa beerz I will ride the cooler off top like a Shetland pony!



Now this would be something interesting !!!


----------



## blood on the ground

greg_n_clayton said:


> Now this would be something interesting !!!



Both of you are welcome to come on over! Just no funny stuff!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Anybody notice the snow plow/spreader trucks locked and loaded on 400?


----------



## Greene728

Rockdale Buck said:


> How long y'all think the snow sticks around before it melts??



Till it gets above 32*.


----------



## tcward

Rockdale Buck said:


> How long y'all think the snow sticks around before it melts??


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Kinda quiet in here


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Kurt on 95.5 still saying it's going to happen.... hopefully!!


----------



## smokey30725

all the schools are closed up here. for the 1/2" of snow coming, lol.


----------



## PappyHoel




----------



## PappyHoel

Dawson county release early


----------



## DDD

NW GA, the NAM shows you some love.  Mexican, can you do something with this NAM model?  Please get it to hold the rudder straight now.


----------



## topfuelgirl

That's a lot of love for Paulding county now!!!


----------



## deerbandit

topfuelgirl said:


> That's a lot of love for Paulding county now!!!



Heck yeah it is! Please hold true and it will a fun day on the four wheeler.


----------



## smokey30725

Keep shifting!!!!


----------



## DDD

That warm nose to the South East is gobbling up moisture and making it rain instead of snow.  Going to be a sharp cutoff and it will suck so bad for whoever ends up in that zone.


----------



## deerbandit

DDD said:


> NW GA, the NAM shows you some love.  Mexican, can you do something with this NAM model?  Please get it to hold the rudder straight now.



DDD any changes on when you think it will start? I leave downtown tomorrow at 5pm should it be safe traveling?


----------



## lbzdually

Doesn't most winter storms drift to the North normally?   That would put us in the bulls eye.


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> NW GA, the NAM shows you some love.  Mexican, can you do something with this NAM model?  Please get it to hold the rudder straight now.



Thoughts on the GFS? It's trending down.  Are we losing it?


----------



## Elephant

I want to get an evening hunt in around the flowery branch area before it comes. Then will need to pick up the kids about 10 miles down road. Will I have enough time or is that pushing it? Assuming this hits at night....


----------



## TBean95

DDD said:


> NW GA, the NAM shows you some love.  Mexican, can you do something with this NAM model?  Please get it to hold the rudder straight now.



Love that 5 inches right over N Paulding!


----------



## havin_fun_huntin

Off topic for winter. But explain this to me.  Straight line winds, rotation, and not a tornado?


----------



## DDD

havin_fun_huntin said:


> Off topic for winter. But explain this to me.  Straight line winds, rotation, and not a tornado?



The mexican in the guru on this, however I will attempt to explain.

Thunder Storms can rotate and never actually become a tornado.  Also, they can produce straight line winds in excess of 100mph at times.  This seems to be the case in Albany.  

There are certain things that the experts look for that tell them a tornado touched down, or if the damage was a result of straight line winds.

Hope that helps!  The guy in the sombrero can answer in more detail and better explanation if needed.


----------



## havin_fun_huntin

DDD said:


> The mexican in the guru on this, however I will attempt to explain.
> 
> Thunder Storms can rotate and never actually become a tornado.  Also, they can produce straight line winds in excess of 100mph at times.  This seems to be the case in Albany.
> 
> There are certain things that the experts look for that tell them a tornado touched down, or if the damage was a result of straight line winds.
> 
> Hope that helps!  The guy in the sombrero can answer in more detail and better explanation if needed.



Thanks DDD.  Yall keep up the good work.  We appreciate  it


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, is there anything else exciting coming down the pike for us?


----------



## stuart smith

DDD said:


> That warm nose to the South East is gobbling up moisture and making it rain instead of snow.  Going to be a sharp cutoff and it will suck so bad for whoever ends up in that zone.



That's what I have my eye on...


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> DDD, is there anything else exciting coming down the pike for us?



MMMMM Hmmmmm (Sorry NW)


----------



## smokey30725

Dang it


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Getting a little worried about sleet on the south side


----------



## Hawk Pride

DDD said:


> That warm nose to the South East is gobbling up moisture and making it rain instead of snow.  Going to be a sharp cutoff and it will suck so bad for whoever ends up in that zone.



Umm...That would be me.


----------



## nickel back

wish that  arctic air would get here before the rain.....


----------



## DEERFU

Is this the calm before the storm?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Interesting that this mornings RAP and HRRR keep us just walking the tight wire with temps most of the day, cycling us between rain, sleet and freezing rain over and over all day. Sounds about as much fun as eating a snotcicle.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

As I mentioned yesterday, a couple of the hi-res models were showing the freezing line barely tickling us. This morning's 4km is sticking with a mostly freezing rain and sleet scenario for us with the snow pushing through rapidly on the back side. 

I know it doesn't sound good for you Snow Dogs but you must accept that it is a distinct possibility. The cold air mass really needs to be in here first to guarantee a good snow event, and at 37° IMBY, that ain't gonna cut it. 

Do I hope I'm wrong? Heck yeah!!!! I hate freezing rain and what it brings.


----------



## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As I mentioned yesterday, a couple of the hi-res models were showing the freezing line barely tickling us. This morning's 4km is sticking with a mostly freezing rain and sleet scenario for us with the snow pushing through rapidly on the back side.
> 
> I know it doesn't sound good for you Snow Dogs but you must accept that it is a distinct possibility. The cold air mass really needs to be in here first to guarantee a good snow event, and at 37° IMBY, that ain't gonna cut it.
> 
> Do I hope I'm wrong? Heck yeah!!!! I hate freezing rain and what it brings.



Gimmie a cold rain over that crap.  Do NOT want ice.


----------



## jbird1

Sitting at 32 deg. here at the Forsyth-Dawson line...second morning in a row to hit the freezing mark.  This thing needs to take it's time and hit overnight tonight for maximum effect.


----------



## smokey30725

Local met barely even talked about it on the morning news , lol. Said 1/2" at most for most of north Georgia.


----------



## jbird1

ATL Mets still on the train...saying 4-6"


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Annnd Spann and the NWS Birmingham just reinforced the Hi-Res projections.

Of course, that is Alabama, but it is parallel with the .gif I posted a minute ago.


----------



## JonathanG2013

I am at work in Johns Creek, Ga near Forsyth County. Co worker just came in and said it is sleeting.


----------



## keithsto

Dangit, Miggy.  Now you have got me all nervous about my planted pines.


----------



## jbird1

Cantore and crew just said possible record snow in Atlanta...maybe just a ratings ploy...hehe


----------



## NCHillbilly

Already light snow here. Came through a couple places this morning where the ground was already white.


----------



## Dustin Pate

36 at the House in Heard County and heavy rain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> Cantore and crew just said possible record snow in Atlanta...maybe just a ratings ploy...hehe



Sheesh, did he become a part time Minister of Music somewhere in Atlanta now?


----------



## Jeff Raines

34 in Acworth


----------



## Robbie101

My rental car said 39 in Monroe GA


----------



## Milkman

keithsto said:


> Dangit, Miggy.  Now you have got me all nervous about my planted pines.



How old are your pines?


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sheesh, did he become a part time Minister of Music somewhere in Atlanta now?



I'm just reporting the news...The silver lining today is that Sam Champion was processed.


----------



## keithsto

Milkman said:


> How old are your pines?



6 years old.


----------



## Priest

It was 30° in Canton this morning getting the girls out the door for the day.  On the drive down to Kennesaw I saw 30° to 33° and some spits of rain.


----------



## JonathanG2013

I don't care who you are that's funny.

Yea and there is some ocean front property in Arizona for sale.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Radar looks pretty full out west! Come on give me at least 2-3" at home!


----------



## Jeff Phillips

Looks like I'm gonna miss the last weekend in Taylor County. My bride and her mom are both handicapped. Can't leave them stranded.

34 in Silver City (Forsyth/Dawson line)


----------



## 95g atl

Looks like the majority of this storm for most metro will be RAIN, and _perhaps_ changing over to snow while we are sleeping tonight.  If not snow, then sleet/freezing rain.

What I have noticed is the SOUTH, in particular to most of the country, has very unpredictable weather in the winter, regarding rain/snow/sleet/ice.  The slight temperature variations can dictate record snowfall, devastating ice, or merely a big rainstorm.

Also, what happens in NW metro can be radically different from what happens in NE metro.  

Very difficult to accurately predict.  

merely my worthless opinion.


----------



## PappyHoel

32 in Dawson imby


----------



## topfuelgirl

Wow snowman spoiler!!! !!


----------



## Crakajak

36 in the 30083
40 in the 31836 and rain.


----------



## keithsto

My weather station at the house near 30641 says 39.  Said 43 when I left this morning at 5:15.


----------



## DDD

I am going to update my map and try to sort out some fears, reality and thoughts.  I kept saying we were going to walk a razor thin line and that is going to be the rub.


----------



## smokey30725

Channel 3 in Chattanooga posted a map showing 2-3 inches in the Chattanooga / NW Georgia area. I'll believe it when I see it.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> I am going to update my map and try to sort out some fears, reality and thoughts.  I kept saying we were going to walk a razor thin line and that is going to be the rub.



Hang in there, DDD.  Some of the crew will never get over Macho Grande.


----------



## Trigabby

I'll just drop this here if any of us want to take the plunge.


----------



## JosephSparks

It's funny, as these are being said, Nitz puts a map on Twitter still confident for 2-4 in metro ATL and tells everyone to be where they need to be going by dark.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Check out the forecasted low temp here in my neck of the woods  tomorrow night:

Today:
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind around 8 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight:
Snow. Low around 16. North wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday:
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. North northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -6. North northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Sunday:
Sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.

Sunday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Get the snow dogs dancing please!!!!


----------



## DCHunter

NCHillbilly said:


> Check out the forecasted low temp here in my neck of the woods  tomorrow night:
> 
> Today:
> A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind around 8 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
> 
> Tonight:
> Snow. Low around 16. North wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
> 
> Saturday:
> A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. North northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
> 
> Saturday Night:
> Mostly clear, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -6. North northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
> 
> Sunday:
> Sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
> 
> Sunday Night:
> Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.



If my employer would ever let me telecommute, I'll be moving up there with you.


----------



## nickel back




----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


>



thats what you gt for marrying a vol.


----------



## Goddard

Will snow weenie dogs help??


----------



## smokey30725

According to James Spann out of Birmingham, the system is overproducing so far.


----------



## NCHillbilly

DCHunter said:


> If my employer would ever let me telecommute, I'll be moving up there with you.



If my employer would let me telecommute, I'd stay as far south as I could get until about April.


----------



## smokey30725

DCHunter said:


> If my employer would ever let me telecommute, I'll be moving up there with you.



Amen to that! Just let me live in one of the cabins at the Boyd Mountain Christmas Tree Farm and I am good to go.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

I'm telecommuting today. Hope this helps.


----------



## 95g atl

DCHunter said:


> If my employer would ever let me telecommute, I'll be moving up there with you.



X1000000000000000000.  I agree....!!!
Though, for me, in reality, I have to wait until my six year old graduates high school.  Top schools in Suwanee, can't move until he is done.  

Will get in touch w/you within 12 years. LOL

*BACK ON TOPIC:*

anyone getting any rain?  sleet?  ice?  snow??
From my awesome weather app, the radar shows rain to the south of ATL and mixed precip far to the west in Bama.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Yes dance!!


----------



## 95g atl

NCHillbilly said:


> If my employer would let me telecommute, I'd stay as far south as I could get until about April.



GON PLAN: 

Central FL - January - March
N GA MNTS/ NC MNTS - April-December

Count me in...!!!


----------



## bilgerat

talking head on the WC just said maybe an inch at the most for Atlanta, 1 to 3 for ne Ga


----------



## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> According to James Spann out of Birmingham, the system is overproducing so far.



Temps will matter, but looking at the regional models and the actually radar it does appear that actually radar is overproducing compared to models... now the question is will the HRRR/RGEM/NAM modify as day goes on and well temps work out better to produce more snow the FZ...IF so could be a big ole snow storm for some stretch of people


----------



## smokey30725

malak05 said:


> Temps will matter, but looking at the regional models and the actually radar it does appear that actually radar is overproducing compared to models... now the question is will the HRRR/RGEM/NAM modify as day goes on and well temps work out better to produce more snow the FZ...IF so could be a big ole snow storm for some stretch of people



The all important question: will this system, in fact, make a massive shift to the NW and make me very happy?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> The all important question: will this system, in fact, make a massive shift to the NW and make me very happy?



No, unless it also results in banding across southern Hall county and I get 7-10 inches.


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> No, unless it also results in banding across southern Hall county and I get 7-10 inches.



May the weather gods smile upon both of us.


----------



## malak05

13z HHHR to 14z HHHR comparisons

It is picking up the uptick in moisture from these runs and also it's temp profiles have ticked toward more snow then FZ in last frame this is what you want for less Sleet more Snow let's hope this progress continues and temps do their job!


PS... don't worry about totals worry about the trend this isn't going to get exact right but more about seeing that its signature is showing improvement in the layers of cold air per its model details


----------



## 3ringer

Post temps in your city's name not zip code please . I don't know where 54321 is located. 
I like to know the temps in everybody's city as the storm approaches.


----------



## smokey30725

Come on NW, represent!!!!!


----------



## Milkman

keithsto said:


> 6 years old.



Yep.   Too big to lay down with ice.  They would break some. I have some 17 yr old that broke badly a few years ago


----------



## 91xjgawes

Temp has went down nearly 5 degrees here since rain started.


----------



## malak05

When's Triple D making a update... Geez GFS while not it's wheelhouse painted to very wild pictures for I-20 north man ohh man....

1. If cold temps win some Yuge snow totals
2. If they don't a Yuge very scary FZ/IP event for same area

of course the more N you go the better for snow but it's razor thin between these events everyon please pull for the better


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

29 in Blairsville.  And the thick fog that has just begun to lift has revealed white, frozen ridges.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

3ringer said:


> Post temps in your city's name not zip code please . I don't know where 54321 is located.



My nest says it's 35 in Flowery Branch but that's based on ZIP code and not my exact location. Still dry here after an early am sprinkle.


----------



## Dustin Pate

Temperature
34.5 °F

Relative Humidity
75.4 %

Dew Point Temperature
27.5 °F

Wet Bulb
32 °F

These are from UGA weather station a couple miles from the house in Heard County.


----------



## parisinthe20s

32 in holly springs. We had a little bit of frozen rain this morning but it didn't last long. Bring on the snow


----------



## jbird1

Temp being stubborn here at the Forsyth-Dawson line...holding at 35 deg.


----------



## Head East

a balmy 52 in the 308.


----------



## Head East

no snow.


----------



## JosephSparks

Does it count if it smells like snow outside?


----------



## blondiega1

35 - three miles southeast of downtown Dallas.



.


----------



## smokey30725

32 and cloudy here in Dalton.


----------



## JD

34 degrees in Alpharettta


----------



## DDD

Shack is updated.  This has so much bust potential.


----------



## keithsto

DDD said:


> Shack is updated.  This has so much bust potential.



Was right under the snow bomb through quite a few model runs, now I am right on the edge of not getting anything.  I am prepared if I do get something, but I ain't getting my hopes up.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> Shack is updated.  This has so much bust potential.



Bust and BOOM for sure either way


----------



## texwilliams

From reading DDD update, that warm nose looks to be robbing Athens big time, I am scared to say this side of the state will end up being a bust.


----------



## georgiaboy0311

Any ideas on timing yet? I live in Dallas and work in doraville so just trying to see how my drive home is going to be.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD said:


> Shack is updated.  This has so much bust potential.



DDD and Miguel thank you for all that you have done to inform us during this storm. Now is the wait and see what we get. Only the man upstairs knows for sure.

Best of luck everyone for Snow. We do not want the ice.


----------



## DDD

texwilliams said:


> From reading DDD update, that warm nose looks to be robbing Athens big time, I am scared to say this side of the state will end up being a bust.



Tex, Athens looks to get robbed, heck I might get robbed.  yet Gainesville looks to jackpot at this point.


----------



## DDD

georgiaboy0311 said:


> Any ideas on timing yet? I live in Dallas and work in doraville so just trying to see how my drive home is going to be.



West side of the state probably still in the 7-8PM zone for initial onset.


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> Bust and BOOM for sure either way



No doubt.  That cut off line is going to be so sharp.


----------



## DDD

I never saw where James Spann said the storm was over performing.  On twitter 14 minutes ago he said the storm was "on track".

Anyone post a pic or link where he said it was over performing?


----------



## JosephSparks

It seems like western AL has been taken by surprise a bit.  they are just now issuing Winter Storm Warning warning there.  Does that bode well for GA?


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD said:


> I never saw where James Spann said the storm was over performing.  On twitter 14 minutes ago he said the storm was "on track".
> 
> Anyone post a pic or link where he said it was over performing?



Mark he posted it on twitter earlier.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Tex, Athens looks to get robbed, heck I might get robbed.  yet Gainesville looks to jackpot at this point.



C'mon make it down to the Branch


----------



## JosephSparks

DDD said:


> I never saw where James Spann said the storm was over performing.  On twitter 14 minutes ago he said the storm was "on track".
> 
> Anyone post a pic or link where he said it was over performing?



Attached is screen shot from twitter:


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> 13z HHHR to 14z HHHR comparisons
> 
> It is picking up the uptick in moisture from these runs and also it's temp profiles have ticked toward more snow then FZ in last frame this is what you want for less Sleet more Snow let's hope this progress continues and temps do their job!
> 
> 
> PS... don't worry about totals worry about the trend this isn't going to get exact right but more about seeing that its signature is showing improvement in the layers of cold air per its model details


Gotta get off of the snow maps and go to the PType maps and draw soundings of areas. 

This is a just after midnight sounding from the latest NAM for downtown ATL, the heart of the action. It echoes exactly what I was saying this morning about the 4km NAM and also is identical to this mornings release by NWS B'Ham. 

There is an obvious warm air inversion aloft which means rain will be falling into the colder surface air. That doesn't spell snow anyway you cut it. The only way their is snow will be the wee early hours of Saturday morning when it dumps what is left out of the atmosphere as it blows through towards the coast, and it will be blowing at a pretty hefty clip. 








Like I said on my very first post about this system..... ICE ICE BABY!!!! Though this is something I'd rather not be right about. The HIGH AND DRY WITH BLUEBIRD SKIES would make me feel much better.


----------



## MariettaDawg

georgiaboy0311 said:


> Any ideas on timing yet? I live in Dallas and work in doraville so just trying to see how my drive home is going to be.



Dallas to Doraville? Every day? Geeze!


----------



## DDD

JosephSparks said:


> Attached is screen shot from twitter:



Thanks!  Not sure what that means down stream.  

Our problem is going to be the warm air aloft coming from the south... seen it before and thought we would avoid it this time, at least in my back yard and dang if that sucker isn't trying to rain on my parade.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gotta get off of the snow maps and go to the PType maps and draw soundings of areas.
> 
> This is a just after midnight sounding from the latest NAM for downtown ATL, the heart of the action. It echoes exactly what I was saying this morning about the 4km NAM and also is identical to this mornings release by NWS B'Ham.
> 
> There is an obvious warm air inversion aloft which means rain will be falling into the colder surface air. That doesn't spell snow anyway you cut it. The only way their is snow will be the wee early hours of Saturday morning when it dumps what is left out of the atmosphere as it blows through towards the coast, and it will be blowing at a pretty hefty clip.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Like I said on my very first post about this system..... ICE ICE BABY!!!! Though this is something I'd rather not be right about. The HIGH AND DRY WITH BLUEBIRD SKIES would make me feel much better.



I am beginning to believe given the warm air at 850 that this may be a sleet storm.


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> I am beginning to believe given the warm air at 850 that this may be a sleet storm.



HUSH YO MOUTH!!!
Take it back!!  RIGHT NOW!!







.


----------



## smokey30725

I'm clinging to the irrational hope that all this means it might actually snow at my house near Chattanooga.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Will we see maps for possible sleet coming now?


----------



## bilgerat

its 38.2 in Buford at My neighbors WU station at 11;30 AM,  gonna have to get a lot colder for this to be a snow event


----------



## malak05

Just looking model vs reality... the HRRR, NAMs, looked very off from what the Radar currently are showing on the 0z and 6z and past few hour runs


----------



## curtis04

malak05 said:


> Just looking model vs reality... the HRRR, NAMs, looked very off from what the Radar currently are showing on the 0z and 6z and past few hour runs



What does this mean?


----------



## keithsto

malak05 said:


> Just looking model vs reality... the HRRR, NAMs, looked very off from what the Radar currently are showing on the 0z and 6z and past few hour runs



Off as in over/under performing or off as in location?


----------



## turkeyhunter835

^^^ this


----------



## malak05

keithsto said:


> Off as in over/under performing or off as in location?




They just didn't have that stream of Snow/Sleet running thru Birmingham and such so Real radar is overperforming those runs


----------



## curtis04

That's what I thought!


----------



## ryork

It is 33-34 degrees here in Bremen with dewpoints in the mid to upper 20's per nearby Weather Underground stations. Radar returns already moving through downtown B'ham, and at the rate it's moving it should be approaching the state line sometime mid-afternoon.

I hope those ZR totals shown on the GFS end up being more sleet, we're right on the northern edge of that with some serious amounts of ice shown just to our South and SE.


----------



## JosephSparks

malak05 said:


> They just didn't have that stream of Snow/Sleet running thru Birmingham and such so Real radar is overperforming those runs



My home office in Bham was going to shut early at 2CST.  They have just closed immediately.


----------



## blondiega1

Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.
Please snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I am beginning to believe given the warm air at 850 that this may be a sleet storm.



It would be more probable if the cold air at the surface extended up to 800 or 750 millibars to have more cold air to fall through. If that bottom jog to the left shrinks down to 950 or 975 millibars it will get real ugly real quick if those surface temps hit the 0°c mark or below.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It would be more probable if the cold air at the surface extended up to 800 or 750 millibars to have more cold air to fall through. If that bottom jog to the left shrinks down to 950 or 975 millibars it will get real ugly real quick if those surface temps hit the 0°c mark or below.



I agree...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

topfuelgirl said:


> Will we see maps for possible sleet coming now?



I could show you plenty of them since 4am this morning, but at this point, inside 12 hrs, the window maps at your house are about as good as anything that can be posted on here.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

This is the weather station in my neighborhood, not mine, but a house or two away. It's cool to have one here.

https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:30542.1.99999?sp=KGAFLOWE28


----------



## BlackEagle

The good news is we are all confused as possible and no one has the slightest clue what's really going to happen.


----------



## smokey30725

blondiega1 said:


> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.
> Please snow.



Yes! This ^^^^^^^^


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Depending on where you live relative to this nose of warm air, you will get sleet and/or freezing rain or a dusting of snow up to a decent accumulation of snow. 

Given all of the information that DDD and I have posted over the last week you guys should have a new appreciation for what the professional meteorologist go through. Nailing this system down has been like trying to nail jello to a tree. 

The worst part is, no matter what we or they say, it could flip in a heartbeat and dump copious amounts of white stuff on us, but most likely not. 

This is why I like to stick with Severe Thunderstorm Weather and the Spinny thingies. Conditions are much easier to nail down than with this type of winter system.


----------



## texwilliams

BlackEagle said:


> The good news is we are all confused as possible and no one has the slightest clue what's really going to happen.



Haha, for sure!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> This is the weather station in my neighborhood, not mine, but a house or two away. It's cool to have one here.
> 
> https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:30542.1.99999?sp=KGAFLOWE28



Here's mine. 

https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:30656.1.99999?sp=KGAMONRO8


----------



## nickel back

I New the North tick trend was going to get my area, now I may have to face the frezzing rain......


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> They just didn't have that stream of Snow/Sleet running thru Birmingham and such so Real radar is overperforming those runs



It's pretty close.


----------



## smokey30725

Thanks for all that you guys do. You scratch that itch that all of us weather weenies have and we are grateful for it!


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It would be more probable if the cold air at the surface extended up to 800 or 750 millibars to have more cold air to fall through. If that bottom jog to the left shrinks down to 950 or 975 millibars it will get real ugly real quick if those surface temps hit the 0°c mark or below.



this is from one of the METS that I follow and this may eat us alive.



> Right now I continue to be concerned of an earlier changeover to FZRA or PL in ATL than models show because the very low DPs advecting in, little solar heating as temps have gone nowhere, and the fact no precip is falling which some models showed yesterday.  The later the precip arrives there, the more the wet bulbing potential can be maximized by allowing DPs to drop and then temps to plummet when precip starts.   If you precipitate too early, you saturate too early and then can be hard to get it below 32.


----------



## blondiega1

BlackEagle said:


> The good news is we are all confused as possible and no one has the slightest clue what's really going to happen.




Best summation I've read.  








.


----------



## DouglasB.

I know one dude over in Dublin that's gonna have some serious egg on his face here in about 24 hours.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> It's pretty close.



Yeah that's from the 16z run but the previous NAM/HRRR runs as the same timeline as current Radar didn't show the same far reaching north weather and position.


----------



## jbird1

it's jumped up to 38 deg. in N Forsyth....27 dewpoint.  I need this Low to take it's sweet time and come in overnight.


----------



## blondiega1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Depending on where you live relative to this nose of warm air, you will get sleet and/or freezing rain or a dusting of snow up to a decent accumulation of snow.
> 
> Given all of the information that DDD and I have posted over the last week you guys should have a new appreciation for what the professional meteorologist go through. Nailing this system down has been like trying to nail jello to a tree.
> 
> The worst part is, no matter what we or they say, it could flip in a heartbeat and dump copious amounts of white stuff on us, but most likely not.
> 
> This is why I like to stick with Severe Thunderstorm Weather and the Spinny thingies. Conditions are much easier to nail down than with this type of winter system.




Whoa, wait.
Why are we nailing jello to a tree?
Will that help the snow come??

















.


----------



## JosephSparks

That moment when you question your job security as the Sunbeam bread salesman....tee hee

Taken at Monroe, GA Walmart.

I'll upload picture later. Won't work on my phone.


----------



## DDD

DouglasB. said:


> I know one dude over in Dublin that's gonna have some serious egg on his face here in about 24 hours.



That dude is in Lumpkin County today where he's from.  I can't decide if he "forecast" for Dublin or Lumpkin County.


----------



## DDD

It needs to be noted what the Mexican is saying, a surprise Ice Storm may be inbound for areas like Coweta County going back towards Alabama.


----------



## georgiaboy0311

MariettaDawg said:


> Dallas to Doraville? Every day? Geeze!



Yaaaa it's not much fun. I work 6:30-2:30 though so I don't get the worst of the traffic.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Before it starts, lets get on thing straight so DDD and I don't have to pull our last three remaining hairs out. 

If it hits the ground as liquid it is "Freezing Rain"
If it hits the ground as solid it is "Sleet" not ice. 

Freezing rain is ice, as in icing on the roadways etc. 

If it floats to the ground and is white it is none of the above.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> That dude is in Lumpkin County today where he's from.  I can't decide if he "forecast" for Dublin or Lumpkin County.



I'm pretty sure he can't either. He and a few others should stick to singin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> It needs to be noted what the Mexican is saying, a surprise Ice Storm may be inbound for areas like Coweta County going back towards Alabama.



Still trying to hedge your bets huh?


----------



## parisinthe20s

This is so depressing. I hope we at least get something. I'd be happy with an inch.


----------



## smokey30725

Looks like we are well on track to starting another thread soon. Is there anything on the horizon to start getting prematurely excited about?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like we are well on track to starting another thread soon. Is there anything on the horizon to start getting prematurely excited about?



Warmer weather and sunshine, bass fishing and turkey hunting?


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Warmer weather and sunshine, bass fishing and turkey hunting?



Nooooo!!!!!! We want some snow!!!!! We have 10.5 months to enjoy all the other stuff!


----------



## greg_n_clayton

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like we are well on track to starting another thread soon. Is there anything on the horizon to start getting prematurely excited about?



Looks like we may get enough of a dusting up here to track a rabbit in the morning !!


----------



## smokey30725

Just got a text from a buddy of mine in South Pittsburg, TN that it's starting to snow there. That's about 30 minutes west of Chattanooga.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD or Miguel,

Isn't the moisture coming in too quickly causing this to be an all rain event?  I know Alabama is getting sleet and ice but it is in the upper twenties to lower thirties there. Will the cold air be moving to Georgia also as the moisture comes in?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Nooooo!!!!!! We want some snow!!!!! We have 10.5 months to enjoy all the other stuff!



If you turkey hunt for 10.5 months we need to talk. 


greg_n_clayton said:


> Looks like we may get enough of a dusting up here to track a rabbit in the morning !!


----------



## normaldave

@spann reporting sleet at Gadsden, Anniston, AL, also re-tweeted snow/sleet mix at Sand Rock, Cherokee County,  Radar shows this thing blowing up quickly, I say heads up Rome Georgia...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD or Miguel,
> 
> Isn't the moisture coming in too quickly causing this to be an all rain event?  I know Alabama is getting sleet and ice but it is in the upper twenties to lower thirties there. Will the cold air be moving to Georgia also as the moisture comes in?



Moisture is coming from the gulf, along with the warm air aloft. The cold air is coming in from the NW. Two entirely different animals who have gotten their schedules mixed up and put the kaibash on DDD's snow parade.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you turkey hunt for 10.5 months we need to talk.



Um, no comment?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Just got a text from a buddy of mine in South Pittsburg, TN that it's starting to snow there. That's about 30 minutes west of Chattanooga.



I just exchanged a friendly tweet or so with Chandley on Twitter and he is certain the snow will be a big event here. 

I hope he's right, I hate the freezing rain and ain't much on sleet. However, thus far the soundings as far NW as Ringold don't support it. BUT!!!! this is assuming the models are correct. 

Like I said, it can all flip on a dime.


----------



## huntinglady74

So from what i gather from you guys Lagrange is gonna either get ice or just rain? I'm sitting at 36 degrees right now.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I just exchanged a friendly tweet or so with Chandley on Twitter and he is certain the snow will be a big event here.
> 
> I hope he's right, I hate the freezing rain and ain't much on sleet. However, thus far the soundings as far NW as Ringold don't support it. BUT!!!! this is assuming the models are correct.
> 
> Like I said, it can all flip on a dime.



He's my favorite ATL TV Met.


----------



## PappyHoel

Hope your right mc.  Just got home from the 285/400 corridor to Dawsonville.  Temp is 38.

A few hunters were heading north with 4wheelers and gear.


----------



## Jeff Raines

Rain is a good thing.

Rain allows me to drive to work and back home.

Snow forces them to come get me and make me stay at work until they see fit to bring me home.

I like rain


----------



## rospaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Before it starts, lets get on thing straight so DDD and I don't have to pull our last three remaining hairs out.
> 
> If it hits the ground as liquid it is "Freezing Rain"
> If it hits the ground as solid it is "Sleet" not ice.
> 
> Freezing rain is ice, as in icing on the roadways etc.
> 
> If it floats to the ground and is white it is none of the above.



If it hits the ground as liquid it is "Freezing Rain" Check!

If it hits the ground as solid it is "Sleet" not ice. Check!

If it floats to the ground and is white it is none of the above. Check!

And if it does none of the above, It's a BUST! ?

Anything in the future?? 12th-14th????
 I know, I know Lets get past this one first BUT


----------



## ryork

Sleeting in Bremen


----------



## Jim Ammons

Snowing in Rocky Face on Dick Ridge at 31 degrees.


----------



## Swampslayr

Sleet / Rain west of Rome near the Alabama Line.  Temp at 35.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

huntinglady74 said:


> So from what i gather from you guys Lagrange is gonna either get ice or just rain? I'm sitting at 36 degrees right now.



Yes, sort of kind of, maybe.


----------



## 95g atl

Suwanee. Temp 37. Zero precipitation

Have to like early school release in Gwinnett. 
Release for the afternoon rain and possible 9pm freezing precipitation


----------



## marathon

Snowing on south 41 in Dalton... this mean we get it first we get more?


----------



## toyota4x4h

Pouring snow in Dalton at this moment. Not sticking to roads yet!

Good job ddd on all this before I check out for the weekend! Look forward to the next system!


----------



## smokey30725

Snowing hard around Cleveland Highway in north Dalton!!!


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, sort of kind of, maybe.




In a few hours I will look at my weather rock to confirm.


----------



## JonathanG2013

smokey30725 said:


> Snowing hard around Cleveland Highway in north Dalton!!!



Smokey you were worried about not getting anything. You are getting the snow first.  Score


----------



## rospaw

Sleet 34deg in NE. Bartow / Rydal ga


----------



## Elephant

Braselton area?


----------



## blondiega1

We got sleet in Dallas.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Elephant said:


> Braselton area?


Cold and dark clouds in Flowery Branch.


----------



## smokey30725

JonathanG2013 said:


> Smokey you were worried about not getting anything. You are getting the snow first.  Score



I want it at home! That's an hour north!


----------



## weezzey

Sleet in Douglasville..


----------



## Captkirk120

Sleet in Kennesaw


----------



## kgo

Sleet in Jasper.


----------



## Shane Dockery

Pretty heavy sleet in the 30066 Marietta.


----------



## todd03blown

Sleeting like crazy in Hickory Flat/Holly Springs.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crakajak said:


> In a few hours I will look at my weather rock to confirm.





The window technique says they have freezing rain in Birmingham. This is the parking deck at Childrens Health Care.


----------



## GA DAWG

Sleeting like crazy in the 30028.


----------



## fndrbndr

Sleeting in Dawsonville


----------



## mbl223

34 degrees and raining in Sandy Springs.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Snowing in Blairsville.  Very light and small flakes, but snow all the same.  Temp 32


----------



## Jeff C.

95g atl said:


> Suwanee. Temp 37. Zero precipitation
> 
> Have to like early school release in Gwinnett.
> Release for the afternoon rain and possible 9pm freezing precipitation



Personally, I think it's a good idea. Get a lot of people off the roads early. Too many idjits that can't even drive in a rain.


----------



## Crakajak

Rain and 34 at the big rock.


----------



## Bob Shaw

Cold rain in Newnan/Sharpsburg.


----------



## 95g atl

UPDATE:
SUWANEE......just started a light rain.


----------



## jbird1

Heavy Sleet and 37 deg in N Forsyth


----------



## 95g atl

Jeff C. said:


> Personally, I think it's a good idea. Get a lot of people off the roads early. Too many idjits that can't even drive in a rain.



while I do agree with that most of the time, Gwinnett's typical policy is to let us know the NIGHT BEFORE or by 6am the day of...  I only found this out via EMAIL this morning AFTER i dropped off my son.  That's pretty late notice, considering the fact of the WARNINGS issued yesterday afternoon.    (glad I didn't have to travel today, when I do I always have to be back to my area by 3:15pm to pick up from school).

It's all good.  We are home safe and sound --- enjoying warmth from the HVAC, purring from the cat, and the IPOD is up and running.


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## StriperrHunterr

Light rain and cold in the Branch. Probably go sleet here in a little with how cold it is.


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## ryork

Light sleet and freezing rain here now, icing on elevated surfaces anyhow.


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## deerbandit

Raining and 36 @ 14th and Spring in Midtown.


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## jbird1

Gone over to rain now...and down to 36


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## 3ringer

WSB just reported 31 in Atlanta


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## BlackEagle

Rain in Winder


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## elfiii

Crakajak said:


> In a few hours I will look at my weather rock to confirm.



Mine's not doing anything. Seems like it ought to be doing something. It's never acted like this before. Maybe I need to recalibrate it?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Flurries shown coming down at Fort Mountain State Park by the Georgia Parks Service.


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## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Mine's not doing anything. Seems like it ought to be doing something. It's never acted like this before. Maybe I need to recalibrate it?



Set it outside in a wide open space and it will self-calibrate.


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## Milkman

elfiii said:


> Mine's not doing anything. Seems like it ought to be doing something. It's never acted like this before. Maybe I need to recalibrate it?



Dang it Lee............... turn it over


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## 95g atl

elfiii said:


> Mine's not doing anything. Seems like it ought to be doing something. It's never acted like this before. Maybe I need to recalibrate it?



hahaha!


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## Buck Nasty

Raining at the office in 30096 (Gwinnett Place Mall)... I feel like this will be a firecraker that just fizzeled out..


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## smokey30725

Not much happening in Dalton now. A little of the snow stuck, but other than people driving like idiots, no problems reported.


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## Da Possum

Raining in the 30046.  Hope this helps.


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## jbird1

So basically this is the "light" precip that they predicted that wasn't going to be much during the day. The precip here has actually been moderate.  The real deal is supposed to be overnight.  How is the timing on that Low down in LA coming along?  Slow developing or faster than modeled?


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## Milkman

light rain starting and 41 in Watkinsville


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## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Set it outside in a wide open space and it will self-calibrate.



Yeah, right. Then it will get wet, rust, seize, quit working and then all I'll have is a regular rock.


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## smokey30725

Gentlemen, we are on the precipice of another winter weather thread!


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## 95g atl

GON's Official Weather Cat Report:





"Cricket" decided to go on the back porch a moment ago.  He indicated it was still 37 in Suwanee and a light rain.  No snow, No sleet, No freezing rain.

After about two minutes, there was definitely "meowing" AKA:  let me the -heck- inside, it's cold out here.


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## georgiadawgs44

Rain and 35* in Stockbridge.


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## beginnersluck

Sleeting in Toccoa


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## greg_n_clayton

sleet and snow in Rabun


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## jbird1

DDD...


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## Da Possum

greg_n_clayton said:


> sleet and snow in Rabun



what time is it there?


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## StriperrHunterr

Light rain in the branch. Somewhere between a drizzle and a shower.


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## northgeorgiasportsman

hdm03 said:


> what time is it there?



1992


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## NCHillbilly

My weather rock is white now.


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## deerhuntingdawg

They just moved Winter Storm Warning to Washington, GA...hmmmm


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## Dustin Pate

Temperature
32 °F

Relative Humidity
92.5 %

Dew Point Temperature
30.1 °F

Wet Bulb
31.3 °F


Keep bouncing just around and below the freezing mark in Heard. Light rain falling now.


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## jbird1

The Weather Channel Met is saying they are adjusting the snow totals UP for North Metro...specifically naming "Cherokee, North Fulton, Forsyth and into the NE Ga mountains."


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## JonathanG2013

jbird,

My wife is back at the house in Woodstock and she said it is 32 degrees there now.


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## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> The Weather Channel Met is saying they are adjusting the snow totals UP for North Metro...specifically naming "Cherokee, North Fulton, Forsyth and into the NE Ga mountains."



Sure, leave out Hall.


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## northgeorgiasportsman

Huge swirling flakes falling in Blairsville.


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## jbird1

JonathanG2013 said:


> jbird,
> 
> My wife is back at the house in Woodstock and she said it is 32 degrees there now.



I noticed we were in the purple which is 4-6 in.


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## jbird1

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Sure, leave out Hall.



I think you're in there too,...especially with lake effect.


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## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> I think you're in there too,...especially with lake effect.


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## smokey30725

Hopefully round 2 will bring some better snow coverage.


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## GA DAWG

It's a bust. Just cold rain here now. All sleet gone.


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## Priest

GA DAWG said:


> It's a bust. Just cold rain here now. All sleet gone.



How can you claim bust when the predicted event hasn't started yet?  This is the preshow


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## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> It's a bust. Just cold rain here now. All sleet gone.



Hang in there, Dawg....they've just moved us into the sweet spot for overnight.


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## JonathanG2013

GA DAWG said:


> It's a bust. Just cold rain here now. All sleet gone.



Young grasshopper,

The mighty weather man DDD did say that the main snow would not start until around 7 to 8 PM tonight.  

Patience is a virtue.


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## smokey30725

I'm the 1000th post!!!!!


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## StriperrHunterr

JonathanG2013 said:


> Young grasshopper,
> 
> The mighty weather man DDD did say that the main snow would not start until around 7 to 8 PM tonight.
> 
> Patience is a virtue.



Not one of mine, and apparently not one of dawgs either.


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## ButcherTony

GA DAWG said:


> It's a bust. Just cold rain here now. All sleet gone.


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## JonathanG2013

smokey30725 said:


> I'm the 1000th post!!!!!



Congrats you win a year supply of Spam.


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