# Winter Weather Thread 2015/2016 Part II



## DDD

The beginning of this thread finds a threat for Sunday night and complete model madness.


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## doenightmare

We may make Part III before this winter is over.


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## DDD

Would not be surprised about that!  One year I think we made 6 or 7?


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## Crakajak

Thanks again for taking the time to keep us updated on the winter weather.


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## WickedKwik

GFS vs EURO!!!!  Who will win out??!!!!!!


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## malak05

I'm going to try my hand on talking about the 2 models at war with each other and the core difference between them. Particular Focus on the Low location in the SE/Gulf

The first 2 images are the GFS and it's Ensemble run which support winter weather and a system moving thru on Sunday. If you notice the Low it's roughly south of LA and tracks faster and connects better with the northern stream and takes a easterly track which bring ups a system fast moving system on Sunday.

The last 1 is Euro and the lows are driven due south with the PV due to the slower interaction they  miss out on the Northern stream as that doesn't allow the low to track easterly it is dominated by the Polar Vortex and suppressed the OP take its all the way to Cuba???

Now some of the Euro Ensembles are nowhere as extreme as the OP and almost wants lean toward the GFS on Low placement and track compare to it's OP and others Ensembles are just as extreme it's still not ideal but interesting nonetheless. Just doesn't tilt quick enough.

That's what I take from the 2 models so far who knows how it will play out?


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## Robbie101

I wish I understood what I was looking. lol  All I see is 558 and green IMB. lol


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## nickel back

Just a cold rain for my part of the woods....


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## doenightmare

Robbie101 said:


> I wish I understood what I was looking. lol  All I see is 558 and green IMB. lol



I don't get the maps either. All I see is pretty colors. I like pretty colors.


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## elfiii

Robbie101 said:


> I wish I understood what I was looking. lol  All I see is 558 and green IMB. lol





doenightmare said:


> I don't get the maps either. All I see is pretty colors. I like pretty colors.



I can see Georgia. Does that count?


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## DDD

Malak is right. I will do some drawing tonight and maybe that will help some of you out.


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## DDD

Watching the GFS run now...


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## northgeorgiasportsman

Not looking good for the dancing beagles.


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## malak05

Well 18z GFS basically held serve with other GFS runs in past couple of days... Keep in mind the 12z GFS was the first amped signature and others have been weaker so 18z still matches with other runs.


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## Goddard

Thanks for all you do!!


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## smokey30725

I'm dying for an update!!!


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## DDD

I am working up something as we speak.


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## DDD

The event for Sunday as far as the GFS goes is starting to dry up.  As some have pointed out the track of the gulf low is what drives how much moisture we get north.  Temps are too warm in south GA so any moisture will be rain.

In some of the previous models the Low pressure came across south GA went off the South Carolina coast and bombed out.  Throwing moisture back over on top of Georgia in what would be a cold air mass.  That model thinking has left.

What is more interesting is the system that the GFS is throwing out to us.  I am not sure if I should take it seriously or let it tease me.  I have just about abandoned any positive thoughts for the Sunday system.  It's just moisture starved.

There is still a lot of time between now and Sunday and it could come back.  I have not written it off completely but there is not a lot of things to help the thinking that it will come in juicer than currently modeled.

The Wednesday system currently modeled would drop 1" in most areas 2-3" in the N. GA mountains.  This really needs to be watched because it has "snowpocolypse" chances.  What I mean by that is, the cold air will rush in behind the system Sunday.  Frigid air.  Then the disturbance will drop 1" of snow.  Remember the last time 1" of snow fell on 75 and I-75?  

So this will need to be watched.


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## DDD

Now is a good time for some education.  Many of you said you didn't understand the colors and what you were looking at.  I will see if I can give you a little high altitude map reading lesson.

Let's start with the GFS.  I have taken the GFS map and drawn in red the "ideal" track you want to see for a Deep South snow.  It's not too far north and not too far south.  It allows the cold air in and sends the moisture up.  The cold high pressure is up north and I have put a small red arrow up there.  It's enough cold to give us snow but not so strong that it pushes it to Cuba.


The EURO shows a STRONG lobe of cold air that pushes south and shoves the Low pressure all the way to Cuba.    have drawn the track in Black.  It leaves everyone dry and cold.  You can see the large lobe of cold air just shoving the Low pressure to Cuba.


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## smokey30725

Wow. Folks better be ready if they are traveling during that time. I leave Thursday night to go deer hunting in Bessemer, Alabama. Staying through Saturday. Do you see any issues for that time frame?


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## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Wow. Folks better be ready if they are traveling during that time. I leave Thursday night to go deer hunting in Bessemer, Alabama. Staying through Saturday. Do you see any issues for that time frame?



7 days out is too far to try and nail something down.  The snow as modeled would be in Wednesday.


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## smokey30725

Thanks DDD, I certainly appreciate you and what you do for us.


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## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Thanks DDD, I certainly appreciate you and what you do for us.



Thanks Smokey!  I wish I had a big dog storm to follow but I don't.

Another thing I should say is that the energy that is going to bring the Sunday system will finally come on shore tomorrow.  Once it does that the sampling will be better and you may see the outcome on the models change.  It may show it be wetter, drier or the same.  However, I will trust it better once the sampling and data is better once over land.


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## nickel back

not looking good, looks like the Euro is going to win the battle of the models....

waiting for DDD update though


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## RinggoldGa

Was up last night anxiously awaiting (a) DDD update and (b) Powerball numbers.  

Was asleep on the couch by 10pm.  

Awoke to found out I'm not a billionaire and I'm not likely to get snowed in Sunday.  Thinking of just going back to bed.


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## smokey30725

I didn't win either. The beagles won't get their gold-plated dancing shoes after all.


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## malak05

Well 12z model madness continues... the Euro made solid strides with the low further north still not where it needs to be but a if it goes another jog like that may  be interesting... BUT the GFS last night trend more toward the original EURO signals which is not good.

Triple D on it if models come up with a middle ground solution no snow, so if your hanging on hope for Sunday you need the low to continue to adjust the further north and GFS to moderate

Example Euro 12z run yesterday the low was due west of Cuba and 0z run had it due west of say Tampa Bay roughly just looking at it with blind eye


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## jcountry

Matt East explains the models well...

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

Starts around 4:00

-He is based in north carolina-so keep that in mind....   But real good chart interpretations.


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## nickel back

Looks like its out of here.....


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## PappyHoel

As usual the system turns to cold rain and 35 degrees


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## blood on the ground

jcountry said:


> Matt East explains the models well...
> 
> http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/
> 
> Starts around 4:00
> 
> -He is based in north carolina-so keep that in mind....   But real good chart interpretations.



Dude that was awesome and soooo education! Thank you for posting this!


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## JonRatliff

Glenn Burns just posted the new Euro saying we might get a good wintery mix in the Metro area Sunday. He also mentioned the GFS now shows nothing...


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## GA DAWG

Yall stay tuned. I'll fill you in bout Sunday. Maybe at midnite sat.


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## malak05

GFS goes bye-bye and Euro continues it's jog north still not where it's need for significant weather but better still got some northward travels needed


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## jcountry

blood on the ground said:


> Dude that was awesome and soooo education! Thank you for posting this!




I always keep an eye on Matt East in the winter.   He is great at explaining the what/why of the models.  

Great resource!


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## JonathanG2013

Malak

Are you a meteorologist or just into weather? You seem to know a lot about weather like DDD does.


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## mtr3333

flurries maybe


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## malak05

JonathanG2013 said:


> Malak
> 
> Are you a meteorologist or just into weather? You seem to know a lot about weather like DDD does.



I'm just a weather nut that spent past 3-4 years around forums and weather model sites and learning weather terms and basic weather stuff. I'm no expert by any means and just try to add to the conversation and await Triple D updates on here.

These are good free model sites if you want to go to and take time to play around
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/


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## malak05

The Euro in the past 3 runs has been ticking North with the Low pressure system in it's solution due to a lessening Polar Vortex this allows the low to interact with better with the Gulf stream and starts to tilt and rotate. If this trend continues especially after we have better samplings and the low goes into a rotation and wraps up then it will be very good development in the track of the low and the moisture output

If it wraps it most likely will eject and follow the gulf stream to the east/northeast not flatten out and bring more chance of storm across the SE (In theory) I believe that's how that should work


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## doenightmare

malak05 said:


> The Euro in the past 3 runs has been ticking North with the Low pressure system in it's solution due to a lessening Polar Vortex this allows the low to interact with better with the Gulf stream and starts to tilt and rotate. If this trend continues especially after we have better samplings and the low goes into a rotation and wraps up then it will be very good development in the track of the low and the moisture output
> 
> If it wraps it most likely will eject and follow the gulf stream to the east/northeast not flatten out and bring more chance of storm across the SE (In theory) I believe that's how that should work





So it gonna snow Malak? I need a snow map.


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## malak05

doenightmare said:


> So it gonna snow Malak? I need a snow map.



Haha leave that stuff to Triple D I just watch models and trends and point out what is need for best case scenarios... but we should know one way our other in next 24 hours I think


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## Mountainbuck

Is there anything better to concentrate on behind this flurry storm ?


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## gobbleinwoods

Mountainbuck said:


> Is there anything better to concentrate on behind this flurry storm ?



Friday week.


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## Matthew6

gobbleinwoods said:


> Friday week.



you must be going to cornhuskerland.


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## malak05

Gosh darn it... the GFS comes back tonight and is like hey what I miss while I was out???

Particular talking about how it basically past 24 hours it went completely away from any snow solution to now it showed up tonight and tried to give it a go not there yet but if the Euro does continues the trend may just get a Lil something Sunday


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## dsceviour

What I find very interesting is tonight's 0z run looked to be taking a steel backtrack pattern to the original GFS. For example tonight's 0z brought back more snow than its previous fun and looks exactly the same as yesterday, Thursday's, 0z run which was fading it out at that time. So what I mean is that the GFS is backtracking it's steps and showing snow again. If this pattern continues there is a possibility it could end up showing like Wednesday's 12z run which was by far the best run yet with the most snow. Now not saying that will happen but it's worth keeping an eye on especially on Fridays runs. Getting very interesting now and waiting to see what kind EURO has to say, maybe he will follow the GFS and keep trending north, if so we will have a lot better shot at bringing something home. Stay tuned, lot to come Friday!


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## ryork

If this morning's system is any indication, it is certainly hard to count on a precise forecast more than a day out it seems. NWS site this morning still had a graphic showing approximately 0.10-0.15 inches of rain in our area. We blew through that before it got started good, already approaching an inch. Also, the forecast lows were too warm as well, though I assume this heavy rain at time forced that cooling to a large degree. Was pouring and 37 degrees here just a little while ago. I'm curious what it's doing up in the higher elevations in N. GA right now?


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## northgeorgiasportsman

ryork said:


> I'm curious what it's doing up in the higher elevations in N. GA right now?



It's raining and 38 here in B'ville.


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## blood on the ground

Good to see it finally started raining


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## smokey30725

Barely a drizzle up here near Chattanooga.


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## nickel back

I say that low will move north even more.....


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## smokey30725

Just snow, dang it!!!!!!!


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## DDD

Good morning peeps.

I have been on a business trip in Nashville, TN all week so posting has been sporadic.  I apologize for not posting more.  I drove home last night and I should be able to post and answer questions today.

I am about to take my daughter to school and then I am going to evaluate the situation.  I very much believe that these systems are going to be a deal where the picture changes all the way up to 24 hours before the "storm" hits.

Trends have been North and North West.  Exactly what we want to see if we are going to get the flakes.  

More to come shortly.


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## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Good morning peeps.
> 
> I have been on a business trip in Nashville, TN all week so posting has been sporadic.  I apologize for not posting more.  I drove home last night and I should be able to post and answer questions today.
> 
> I am about to take my daughter to school and then I am going to evaluate the situation.  I very much believe that these systems are going to be a deal where the picture changes all the way up to 24 hours before the "storm" hits.
> 
> Trends have been North and North West.  Exactly what we want to see if we are going to get the flakes.
> 
> More to come shortly.



Thanks for the update. No need to apologize, you've got a life. 

Are you referring to the Sunday storm with this post?


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## MariettaDawg

Don't apologize for living your life.  We appreciate you for choosing  to share your time, passion, and expertise with us.  We know you'll do all you can to keep us informed.


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## jcountry

Once again, Matt East has a good video about the Sunday system:

He starts @ 2:30, and gets into how the models have changed.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

Doesn't look like much of a snow maker-except possibly some wrap around up in the mountains.    There could be a dusting all along the mountains up into carolina and maybe some in N Ga.   But the main area of moisture would need to come way north real soon to change that.

He mentions a system late next week.  Def worth checking back and keeping an eye on.


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## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Thanks for the update. No need to apologize, you've got a life.
> 
> Are you referring to the Sunday storm with this post?



Yes.  It has started to tick north and north west in a lot of the models.  With systems like this, 75 miles north can make a big difference.  Everything is about the track and how strong the low pressure is.




jcountry said:


> Once again, Matt East has a good video about the Sunday system:
> 
> He starts @ 2:30, and gets into how the models have changed.
> 
> http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/
> 
> Doesn't look like much of a snow maker-except possibly some wrap around up in the mountains.    There could be a dusting all along the mountains up into carolina and maybe some in N Ga.   But the main area of moisture would need to come way north real soon to change that.
> 
> He mentions a system late next week.  Def worth checking back and keeping an eye on.



Matthew East may be the most level headed MET I know.  Very sound, middle of the road thinking and he is a snow lover but he keeps it real.  Good post.

There is a sizable storm on the EURO on day 9 in the latest run.  It would be a true southern winter storm and would line up with my thinking that the end of January / early February is where the winter storms would really zero in.  This would line up with that thinking.  Obviously it's way down the road, but something to watch for sure.


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## Dustin Pate

Just over 1" of rain since midnight here.


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## DDD

Dustin Pate said:


> Just over 1" of rain since midnight here.



Yep.  Looking at the Radar east of Atlanta has been the heaviest axis of rain for sure.


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## nickel back

DDD said:


> Yes.  It has started to tick north and north west in a lot of the models.  With systems like this, 75 miles north can make a big difference.  Everything is about the track and how strong the low pressure is.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Matthew East may be the most level headed MET I know.  Very sound, middle of the road thinking and he is a snow lover but he keeps it real.  Good post.
> 
> There is a sizable storm on the EURO on day 9 in the latest run.  It would be a true southern winter storm and would line up with my thinking that the end of January / early February is where the winter storms would really zero in.  This would line up with that thinking.  Obviously it's way down the road, but something to watch for sure.




would love to see that happen. I would love to see middle Ga. get hammered



Dustin Pate said:


> Just over 1" of rain since midnight here.



yea, seams this little rain maker put out more than what most called for


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## Mountainbuck

Looking forward to all the updates !


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## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> Looking forward to all the updates !



I feel confident right now you will see some flakes fly.  If the LPS will deepen a little and come a little farther north... you may have to post pictures to make the rest of us jealous.


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## Mountainbuck

Will do sir, I have a 3 yr old that is really wanting to see some flakes fly !


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## jcountry

DDD said:


> Matthew East may be the most level headed MET I know.  Very sound, middle of the road thinking and he is a snow lover but he keeps it real.  Good post.
> 
> There is a sizable storm on the EURO on day 9 in the latest run.  It would be a true southern winter storm and would line up with my thinking that the end of January / early February is where the winter storms would really zero in.  This would line up with that thinking.  Obviously it's way down the road, but something to watch for sure.



He said exactly that about the next week situation.

Matt rocks!

(And of course, so do you!)


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## GA DAWG

So when we gonna know what it will do? When it starts?  Why is this system so hard to get a grasp on? We not even 2 days out now.


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## malak05

GA DAWG said:


> So when we gonna know what it will do? When it starts?  Why is this system so hard to get a grasp on? We not even 2 days out now.



This is a hard system to put a finger on the models for the past week. The GFS and Euro have been back and forth on possiblities and just within 24 hours now they both have came to a agreement of track which puts the low right on gulf which is usually good signs but the low stays flat and northern shield is pretty dry but it in models gets so so close to phasing and going into rotation which would change the solution greatly... 

Think of a wet mop if you just let it sit flat the water just pools around the mop head but if I start spinning it(rotating) it throws water out and around... so solution are so close to that but not full doing it so if it doesn't phase it's just not enough moisture pushed north to make any significant impact to areas with temps good for snow... If it does Phase it will increase the returns for snow for people it's not a huge system but it would be fun but were late in game at this point hard to believe it will come in strong enough and rotate enough for Georgia.

If it doesn't show a phase by tonights short range and long range models it just aint gonna be


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## glue bunny

Animals are starting to pair up here in monticello. The ground is very saturated. Something other than rain would sure be nice. Wheres the dancing beagles?


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## Water Swat

glue bunny said:


> Something other than rain would sure be nice.?



Yes. 60 and sun would sure be nice. 

For those that work outside.


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## smokey30725

The dancing beagles are in the backyard exercising for a marathon dancing session. They are as crazy about snow as the rest of us!


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## todd03blown

We have gotten a TON of rain here in Canton/Hickory Flat. I would wager to say an inch given how much is standing on the roads and in a pool in certain parts of my yard.

If this were only snow


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## Matt.M

The Euro ran at 1PM.  Looking better....Keep moving that way.


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## blood on the ground

Bring on the pipe freezing cold!!!  Wait, I have said that before....


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## nickel back

if only that cold air was in place over middle Ga.


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## RinggoldGa

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on the pipe freezing cold!!!  Wait, I have said that before....



Screw that.  Had a pipe burst in my house two years ago on the second floor.  Came home to 2 inches of water on first floor and waterfalls coming out of the can lights in the first floor ceiling. 

Had to move out for 3 months.  No bueno.  

I need cold enough to snow cold, but none of that single digit stuff.


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## malak05

Man the Euro and GFS still on the north trend... The Euro is just a few ticks from a phase once again and did throw moisture further north this run some... The surface temps are still off for the Euro but it's does have a warm bias the Trends are there and even if it's too late for it to be a strong system??? I feel pretty safe to say areas Atlanta north will see some snow falling at some points Sunday maybe no accumulations that's still to be determined?


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## blood on the ground

Bring on the pipe freezing cold!!!  Wait, I have said that before....


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## Crakajak

malak05 said:


> Man the Euro and GFS still on the north trend... The Euro is just a few ticks from a phase once again and did throw moisture further north this run some... The surface temps are still off for the Euro but it's does have a warm bias the Trends are there and even if it's too late for it to be a strong system??? I feel pretty safe to say areas Atlanta north will see some snow falling at some points Sunday maybe no accumulations that's still to be determined?



We just need enough to get the kids into a snow frenzy.


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## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> Man the Euro and GFS still on the north trend... The Euro is just a few ticks from a phase once again and did throw moisture further north this run some... The surface temps are still off for the Euro but it's does have a warm bias the Trends are there and even if it's too late for it to be a strong system??? I feel pretty safe to say areas Atlanta north will see some snow falling at some points Sunday maybe no accumulations that's still to be determined?



I have been reading around some other sites and have kept up with this trend that is happening. I sure hope it continues and we end up with a 2-3" surprise of snow


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## Peanut

Last night @ 10:30 Fox 5 indicated less than a 1/4 inch of rain for most areas of North GA.  As of 3PM today, I had received 1.99 inches in my rain gauge here in Canton.  Very seldom do I see a forecast that far off in less than 12 hours.  

National Weather Service had also posted meager amounts of rain out of this system.  I guess that is further proof of the model mayhem being spoken of recently when a system surprises that much.


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## todd03blown

Peanut said:


> Last night @ 10:30 Fox 5 indicated less than a 1/4 inch of rain for most areas of North GA.  As of 3PM today, I had received 1.99 inches in my rain gauge here in Canton.  Very seldom do I see a forecast that far off in less than 12 hours.
> 
> National Weather Service had also posted meager amounts of rain out of this system.  I guess that is further proof of the model mayhem being spoken of recently when a system surprises that much.


Yep, same here. Just a tick over 2" in Hickory Flat. They were way off on their estimations.


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## smokey30725

It's been almost 2 hours since the last post in here. Are we expecting 100 degrees and sun now for Monday?


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## GA DAWG

smokey30725 said:


> It's been almost 2 hours since the last post in here. Are we expecting 100 degrees and sun now for Monday?


Its like they skeered. Like the T.v. weather people. Dont wanna say the S word


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## Eddy M.

North Marietta 1/4 inch forecasted  -- 3.5 in rain gauge at 6PM


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## DDD

Lots of players getting on the field for this system Sunday.  Track of the low down on the gulf, how strong (wet) the system is, dynamic cooling, timing, ect... This one will have to be watched closely.

I personally believe this will be mostly an event for the mountains.  People in the metro may see flakes fly but the cold air is just lacking.  I will say, I could easily change my mind.  Especially when we get inside the window of simulated radar (18 hours out).

I am off the grid tomorrow and most of Sunday.  

Malak will have to fly the ship and if things really get nuts, I will text the Mexican and ask him to ride into town on a donkey and hold court.

I actually will be in the Eastern Tennessee Mountains celebrating my son's birthday.  (There is supposed to be snow there Sunday while we are driving out)

I think we have multiple things to watch in the coming 10-18 day range that will be better producers and set ups than the one that is walking the razor edge right now


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## deerslayer357

Have fun and tell your son happy birthday


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## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Lots of players getting on the field for this system Sunday.  Track of the low down on the gulf, how strong (wet) the system is, dynamic cooling, timing, ect... This one will have to be watched closely.
> 
> I personally believe this will be mostly an event for the mountains.  People in the metro may see flakes fly but the cold air is just lacking.  I will say, I could easily change my mind.  Especially when we get inside the window of simulated radar (18 hours out).
> 
> I am off the grid tomorrow and most of Sunday.
> 
> Malak will have to fly the ship and if things really get nuts, I will text the Mexican and ask him to ride into town on a donkey and hold court.
> 
> I actually will be in the Eastern Tennessee Mountains celebrating my son's birthday.  (There is supposed to be snow there Sunday while we are driving out)
> 
> I think we have multiple things to watch in the coming 10-18 day range that will be better producers and set ups than the one that is walking the razor edge right now


Take pictures


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## GA DAWG

So what's it gonna do Malak05? Anything?


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## malak05

Okay so I'm gonna attach a snowfall map which I believe depicts decent idea of what will FALL from the sky tonight thru tomorrow now as far as accumulations I think areas will be a little less then shown here and for the lucky few that do see some sticking snow it won't be a big event areas that sneak in a Inch may be the big winners haha I do think most anyone around I-20 north should seem some form of snow/flurries at points tomorrow.

This should have no impact on your day to day tomorrow at it's current setup... NOW we've had a tendency to have models under due precp. amounts lately so I will be watching models and short range thru today for anything that would potential increase the scope of this event tomorrow and let people know.


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## toyota4x4h

Local mets say we see flurries only tomorrow now accumulation. Dang


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## GA DAWG

1" on tv and the gon weather thread is quite. Kinda odd.


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## NCHillbilly

Calling for about an inch here tonight. Monday they're saying high of 24* with 25mph wind gusts. Low about 8* Monday night. Y'all come up here and get it and take it down there. Bring me some springtime.


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## smokey30725

The beagles have danced all day. Let's see what happens not only tomorrow but next week!


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## georgiaboy0311

Sooooo snow or no snow?


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## ryork

I'm an insomniac to a degree. Woke up around 2:30 this morning and thought I'd check the radar. We were covered in blue, but was all virga as there was nothing actually reaching the ground. Started seeing a few flakes in the outside lights around 3:30 and it's coming down pretty decent now and has been for a little bit. It's 35 degrees so not accumulating, or at least I can't see it. If it were to drop another couple of degrees or fall just a little harder, could perhaps end up with a little on the elevated surfaces, grass etc. Judging from the radar it will keep this up for a little while longer.


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## northgeorgiasportsman

We woke up to a dusting here, but nothing more than that.


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## NCHillbilly

About half an inch or so here. Still snowing.


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## Mountainbuck

Malak what's next ??


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## nickel back

when is the heat coming back???


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## Greene728

nickel back said:


> when is the heat coming back???



^^^


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## GA DAWG

I saw 2 flakes.


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## toyota4x4h

No snow here. Bring on spring this winter has blowed lol


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## parisinthe20s

No snow in the Woodstock area unfortunately. this winter has been a let down. I wonder if February will finally show us some white stuff.


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## Mountainbuck

I see chatter on Twitter about next week and something about GA may miss out because there isn't enough cold air??


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## JonathanG2013

Yes we could miss out and it be just a cold rain.


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## PappyHoel

Winter is over


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## Patriot44

PappyHoel said:


> Winter is over



Both days?


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## NCHillbilly

PappyHoel said:


> Winter is over



Come up here tomorrow and get you some.


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## GA DAWG

Any chances in our future?


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## Mountainbuck

Calling DDD


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## greg_n_clayton

Mountainbuck said:


> Calling DDD



I thank DDD is outta town or was gona be.


----------



## GA DAWG

He left Malak05 in charge. Gotta page him.


----------



## snarlinbear

Mainstream TV mets suggesting wintery mix possible for us on Wednesday.  What is going on?  I know snow in the south is usually a "crap shoot" but sometimes snake eyes and box cars show up in spite of the odds.  I still believe that the evil hand of politically correct weather forecasting has taken over this site when no one will even discuss the topic.


----------



## Milkman

DDD is up in Tennessee being a good hubby and daddy like he should be. In his absence I will offer the following forecast.  

It is January so therefore it is winter. 

With that said we will have winter weather.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Well said. Ron Swanson


----------



## DDD

Hello boys and girls...

I call your attention to this coming Saturday.  A lot of model watching to go, but this could be our chance to see a decent storm.  Without a doubt the mid-Atlantic could see a chance for a record setting snow storm.  Like crazy snow rates / totals.

At first we looked too warm but the EURO is showing some love and that is a good sign in my opinion.  I will have a better look tomorrow.  Been in Tennessee as Milkman said, being a hubby and a daddy.  I will be back in the saddle tomorrow and I am going on a snow storm hunt. 

Hope you folks will come along.  I think we might come up with something good for Saturday.  Could be wrong... have to wait and see.


----------



## DDD

This could become an ice type set up.  As currently modeled the Low is too far north and the high pressure is too far north.  A lot will change but will it be enough to bring frozen precip?  Not sure.

To see any frozen precip that LPS needs to be much farther south and the high pressure needs to be over Virginia to New York area.


----------



## Greene728

No ice please!!!


----------



## blood on the ground

Greene728 said:


> No ice please!!!



Yes ICE ... Makes it easier to cut doughnuts in your truck while you head to the store for perishable items like bread and milk!

Bring on a 1993 type Blizzard!!!!!


----------



## Jeff Raines

blood on the ground said:


> Yes ICE ... Makes it easier to cut doughnuts in your truck while you head to the store for perishable items like bread and milk!
> 
> Bring on a 1993 type Blizzard!!!!!



If the roads are ice,I dare ya to make a right turn leaving your driveway to dabbs bridge.


----------



## blood on the ground

Jeff Raines said:


> If the roads are ice,I dare ya to make a right turn leaving your driveway to dabbs bridge.



you going to video


----------



## Jeff Raines

blood on the ground said:


> you going to video



At the bottom of the hill shoutin wooohooo


----------



## blood on the ground

Jeff Raines said:


> At the bottom of the hill shoutin wooohooo



To bad there isn't a big field at the end of that hill.... That one would be fun on a sled!


----------



## malak05

The next thing to track is this upcoming weekend right now... so the chase continues maybe round 2 will go much better and models are already showing a south trend which is much needed for us in GA right now


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> This could become an ice type set up.  As currently modeled the Low is too far north and the high pressure is too far north.  A lot will change but will it be enough to bring frozen precip?  Not sure.
> 
> To see any frozen precip that LPS needs to be much farther south and the high pressure needs to be over Virginia to New York area.




that is a bad start, this time of the year them lows like to tick north and here we got one that has started out north......


----------



## malak05

nickel back said:


> that is a bad start, this time of the year them lows like to tick north and here we got one that has started out north......



Yeah its going to have to take a nice journey South to help Georgia get in the game other then extreme N. GA but there's still time


----------



## RinggoldGa

Is there a reason we are skipping over the Wednesday event in favor of the Friday/Saturday Event?

Saw the GFS shows a rain/snow type event midday Wednesday.


----------



## DCHunter

malak05 said:


> Yeah its going to have to take a nice journey South to help Georgia get in the game other then extreme N. GA but there's still time


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> Is there a reason we are skipping over the Wednesday event in favor of the Friday/Saturday Event?
> 
> Saw the GFS shows a rain/snow type event midday Wednesday.



Yeah I think a line right now from Summerville across to Toccoa and points north currently have a shot of a mixed bag of lighter amounts snow/freezing rain/sleet at this point on Wednesday... Today 12z gets better data feedback and figuring the actual impact for Wednesday and just how far south it will extend.

At this point Wednesday has a whole lot less question marks compared to this past weekend system... Temps/Wet weather are much better off so points in SE will be getting in on it just a matter of who and how much right now is only northern reaches of GA


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> Yeah I think a line right now from Summerville across to Toccoa and points north currently have a shot of a mixed bag of lighter amounts snow/freezing rain/sleet at this point on Wednesday... Today 12z gets better data feedback and figuring the actual impact for Wednesday and just how far south it will extend.
> 
> At this point Wednesday has a whole lot less question marks compared to this past weekend system... Temps/Wet weather are much better off so points in SE will be getting in on it just a matter of who and how much right now is only northern reaches of GA



That's up in my neck of the woods, I'm in Ringgold well north of Summerville.  Hadn't paid attention to anything all weekend.  Had one of the model links open you gave us last week on my work computer, so I ran the loop when I got to work and was surprised.

Looks like timing will be bad as it hits mid day and kids will be in school.  After the chaos two years ago with the mid day ice event I imagine they'll have a hair trigger to send kids home early or cancel altogether.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Is there a reason we are skipping over the Wednesday event in favor of the Friday/Saturday Event?
> 
> Saw the GFS shows a rain/snow type event midday Wednesday.



Wednesday **should** give the mountains a decent snow.  We very well may see a dusting and someone may luck up and get a slightly heavier snow shower.

Now, the weekend... it needs to be watched closely.  It's trying hard to set up a bad ice storm.  We may end up being just far enough south to stay 33° and rain.  As I said before... lots of model runs to come.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Wednesday **should** give the mountains a decent snow.  We very well may see a dusting and someone may luck up and get a slightly heavier snow shower.
> 
> Now, the weekend... it needs to be watched closely.  It's trying hard to set up a bad ice storm.  We may end up being just far enough south to stay 33° and rain.  As I said before... lots of model runs to come.



Thanks for the update. I'm looking to head up the 85 corridor this weekend so I'm watching these like a hawk.


----------



## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Thanks for the update. I'm looking to head up the 85 corridor this weekend so I'm watching these like a hawk.



For me as of right now, the upstate of SC may get throttled with ice.  If I lived there I would be making plans now for a severe ice event.  The NWS out of Greenville is very concerned about it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> For me as of right now, the upstate of SC may get throttled with ice.  If I lived there I would be making plans now for a severe ice event.  The NWS out of Greenville is very concerned about it.



Dang. I'll let my folks know. Thanks again


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Wednesday **should** give the mountains a decent snow.  We very well may see a dusting and someone may luck up and get a slightly heavier snow shower.
> 
> Now, the weekend... it needs to be watched closely.  It's trying hard to set up a bad ice storm.  We may end up being just far enough south to stay 33° and rain.  As I said before... lots of model runs to come.



I'll pass on the ice.  Want nothing to do with it.


----------



## smokey30725

I'm deer hunting in Alabama this weekend. I will happily stay "trapped" down there for a few additional days.


----------



## hmaddox

*IceStorm*

DDD - will be watching your posts like a hawk!  I was in Smyrna, GA in the 70s when we had the worse ice storm I have ever seen - a week without power.  Your advance warning will be very helpful to folks for sure (ie:  we didn't buy wood yet as it was so hot in Dec!).  Will look for future updates on this.....


----------



## GA DAWG

No ice please!


----------



## nickel back

blood on the ground said:


> Yes ICE ... Makes it easier to cut doughnuts in your truck while you head to the store for perishable items like bread and milk!
> 
> Bring on a 1993 type Blizzard!!!!!




pretty sure you don't haft to worry about that anytime soon...


----------



## malak05

12z GFS run for this particular shot is 6PM thru 9PM Wednesday... Key points is the Yellow line running across think of it as the low of demarcation for Frozen stuff falling from sky. As you can tell parts of N. Georgia are currently in place for some Ice/Snow but it did trend colder this run and if that backside cold air flattens out that yellow line any bit it will prolong/and push the impact a little further south


----------



## todd03blown

Sweet Malak! I like that yellow line and the precip I see


----------



## DDD

Right now Wednesday has more snow potential than Saturday by a long shot.

The system, according to the GFS on Saturday will ride too far North.  however, there is a strong CAD signature, and depending on where that High Pressure sets up, will determine if we are cold rain or a bad ice storm.  In my opinion, someone between East Atlanta and Charlotte is going to have one heck of an ice storm on their hands Saturday.

Back to Wednesday.  If this little system keeps getting juicer it could start to get interesting for sure.


----------



## smokey30725

Looking good for Walker county!


----------



## GA DAWG

I tore up all generators during deer season. I might should go buy one.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I hope the upstate SC don't get the ice event like Augusta did two years ago. It was awful.


----------



## smokey30725

I've got a 500 gallon propane tank going in today to go with my 250 gallon one. That should keep my generator going for quite some time.


----------



## Mountainbuck

This place is about to be hoping !


----------



## malak05

Wednesday we need the cold to press further into Georgia and we would be in for it... Saturday system is currently a Miller B track which takes the low thru central/south-central Georgia we need that to at least have a Hybrid Miller A/B to have anything for I-20 north so keep on hoping the Low goes further south


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> Wednesday we need the cold to press further into Georgia and we would be in for it... Saturday system is currently a Miller B track which takes the low thru central/south-central Georgia we need that to at least have a Hybrid Miller A/B to have anything for I-20 north so keep on hoping the Low goes further south



Miller B's are typically not what makes the flakes fly here.  Miller A's are much more our speed.

Virginia and Maryland looks like they will be digging out of 2'+


----------



## StriperrHunterr

They need to change their county border line color. Metro ATL and surroundings are a blur.


----------



## DDD

EURO is much farther south, High pressure is stronger.  Upper part of North Carolina is hammered with snow.  South Carolina and NE GA is probably under a major ice storm.  

On the surface though, temps look to warm, but EURO always struggles with low level temps in these situations.

More model runs to come, but it must be watched... I will be typing a lot this week.. I can see that coming.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> EURO is much farther south, High pressure is stronger.  Upper part of North Carolina is hammered with snow.  South Carolina and NE GA is probably under a major ice storm.
> 
> On the surface though, temps look to warm, but EURO always struggles with low level temps in these situations.
> 
> More model runs to come, but it must be watched... I will be typing a lot this week.. I can see that coming.



you talking about Wednesday's event


----------



## GA DAWG

I see some purple in that map for Ga. Lots of blue. That would be a pretty biggun.


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> you talking about Wednesday's event



I am talking Friday / Saturday.

Wednesday is a clipper.  It will ring out every bit of moisture in the air.   These are always tricky set ups, but this one has more moisture to work with and the temps are already cold.

Friday / Saturday deal will need the High pressure in the NE to come farther south and the Low Pressure coming from the midwest to dive DEEP... dig baby dig.  (I would say that many years back)   If the trend keeps up we would be in business, however where that Low is coming from does not tend to keep digging south, it will usually trend north if anything...

The EURO is the king for reason.  I will have to keep watching.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> I see some purple in that map for Ga. Lots of blue. That would be a pretty biggun.



That map would combine Wednesday's clipper and the system for the weekend.  Don't take those as gospel, they don't call them clown maps for nothing.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> I am talking Friday / Saturday.
> 
> Wednesday is a clipper.  It will ring out every bit of moisture in the air.   These are always tricky set ups, but this one has more moisture to work with and the temps are already cold.
> 
> Friday / Saturday deal will need the High pressure in the NE to come farther south and the Low Pressure coming from the midwest to dive DEEP... dig baby dig.  (I would say that many years back)   If the trend keeps up we would be in business, however where that Low is coming from does not tend to keep digging south, it will usually trend north if anything...
> 
> The EURO is the king for reason.  I will have to keep watching.




So for Friday/Sat,  if the HIGH stays north and LOW stays north, are we looking at nothing but cold rain for the weekend or will it at least be dry?


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> So for Friday/Sat,  if the HIGH stays north and LOW stays north, are we looking at nothing but cold rain for the weekend or will it at least be dry?



It won't be dry, it will be rain.

If the system continues to dig south, which I don't think it will, but if it does or if the GFS starts picking up what the EURO is putting down, then we **POSSIBLY** could be in for a mess, but this set up is not typically a big producer of winter weather for us.  Temps are usually the issue, not the precip.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> It won't be dry, it will be rain.
> 
> If the system continues to dig south, which I don't think it will, but if it does or if the GFS starts picking up what the EURO is putting down, then we **POSSIBLY** could be in for a mess, but this set up is not typically a big producer of winter weather for us.  Temps are usually the issue, not the precip.



A cold weekend of rain in front of the fireplace isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I had other plans!

Also, is the Wednesday snow possibility map a clown map?  Are we so variable and uncertain that 48hrs out it's still a hope and a dream and more likely to bust than verify?


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> A cold weekend of rain in front of the fireplace isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I had other plans!
> 
> Also, is the Wednesday snow possibility map a clown map?  Are we so variable and uncertain that 48hrs out it's still a hope and a dream and more likely to bust than verify?



The fly in the ointment with Wednesday is it is a Clipper System.  They are hard to nail down, but they won't drop 4-5" 

What they will do is show to drop a dusting or 1" and accidentally drop 2". 

Or show to drop 1" and drop nothing.


----------



## DDD

And the most entertaining thing of all is what the EURO shows for next Thursday.  Freezing line is down to Tifton and moisture is HEAVY.  Now it's 10 days away, but its fun to look at.  It would be a blockbuster and like I hinted at weeks ago, would be something that kids in S. GA would remember for a while.

Don't go saying I said snow storm for S. GA next week, just know the EURO model showed Tifton, Northward some love!


----------



## todd03blown

Come on Mother Nature. Be kind to us in GA over the next 5 days and give us some snow please


----------



## Priest

:-DI don't normally do the IMBY thing...but I find these circumstances to be special. I'm in Raleigh NC for the week and am set to come home Thursday or Friday. My wife is now 37 weeks pregnant and I'm on the possible short notice to haul my tail home (7 hours) to get to her if Victoria decides to make an early appearance.  Can you give me some info in Raleigh and what I'm looking at in between four the week?


----------



## DDD

Priest said:


> I don't normally do the IMBY thing...but I find these circumstances to be special. I'm in Raleigh NC for the week and am set to come home Thursday or Friday. My wife is now 27 weeks pregnant and I'm on the possible short notice to haul my tail home (7 hours) to get to her if Victoria decides to make an early appearance.  Can you give me some info in Raleigh and what I'm looking at in between four the week?



You should be fine even coming home Friday.  If you were coming home Saturday, I would say you need to be coming home Friday.  

Good luck on the baby!!!


----------



## JonathanG2013

Thanks for all that you do Mark. Wouldn't we need a Miller A Storm to bring us atleast 5 plus inches of snow?

Do you also remember what kind of winter storm set up the blizzard of 93 was?


----------



## toyota4x4h

Bill Race at ch 9 just posted on fb we will be seeing freezing rain on Wednesday some accumulations.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> Thanks for all that you do Mark. Wouldn't we need a Miller A Storm to bring us atleast 5 plus inches of snow?
> 
> Do you also remember what kind of winter storm set up the blizzard of 93 was?



Miller A is more our cup of tea.  You want to be on the North or North West side of that thing.

Blizzard of 1993 was a basically a trifecta.   The grandaddy of all snow storms.

The sub-tropical jet, the polar jet and the Pacific jet streams all brought pieces of energy together at the same time.  They merged and a "Snow-hurricane" was born.  

If you remember the winds were stupid after all the snow blew in.  That's because all the jet streams had temporarily merged if you will and it was just atmospheric craziness.


----------



## DDD

toyota4x4h said:


> Bill Race at ch 9 just posted on fb we will be seeing freezing rain on Wednesday some accumulations.



That's probably safe talk at this point.  When they say SNOW people hear it as snOMG!


----------



## malak05

Miller A generally do provide the best tracks for Alabama and Georgia to get significant winter weather and Miller B don't generally support winter setup but heavy CAD areas stretching from the NE GA to west can create opportunities for freezing rain and even snow...

The Track of a Miller A due to High pressure location and suppression usually has it ride the Gulf of Mexico cross over Florida and then turn up the coast generally the north side of the low is moisture rich and in winter we have are best chances for wintry weather. 93' storm was a Miller A track of a equivalent triple phase cyclone in the Gulf


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> And the most entertaining thing of all is what the EURO shows for next Thursday.  Freezing line is down to Tifton and moisture is HEAVY.  Now it's 10 days away, but its fun to look at.  It would be a blockbuster and like I hinted at weeks ago, would be something that kids in S. GA would remember for a while.
> 
> Don't go saying I said snow storm for S. GA next week, just know the EURO model showed Tifton, Northward some love!



I got 4 left. I'm tempted to ask but will wait until next week.


----------



## DDD

elfiii said:


> I got 4 left. I'm tempted to ask but will wait until next week.



You sure you don't want to ask???  I have the number right here....


----------



## malak05

Well ain't all this fun let's get us a few small events to squeeze out a little snow before the fingers crossed big dog next week haha


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> You sure you don't want to ask???  I have the number right here....



Tempting but at this point with February still to go and the Ides of March looming I don't want to burn all my chances on early head fakes.


----------



## RinggoldGa

I think a next week clown map is worth posting.  Just sayin'.


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> That's probably safe talk at this point.  When they say SNOW people hear it as snOMG!



If the local mets said SNOW on the 5pm shows this evening every grocery store would be packed out lol. So I know what you mean and its true around here.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> I think a next week clown map is worth posting.  Just sayin'.



It is only on the EURO and I don't have permission to post EURO snow maps.  (It's propitiatory) I will draw up a map of what it looks like for you though...

Hold please.


----------



## smokey30725

toyota4x4h said:


> If the local mets said SNOW on the 5pm shows this evening every grocery store would be packed out lol. So I know what you mean and its true around here.



I just called my broker and told him to dump everything I have into Kroger stock.


----------



## toyota4x4h

smokey30725 said:


> I just called my broker and told him to dump everything I have into Kroger stock.



Itll go up 50% tonight guaranteed..or at least tomorrow lol.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

I'm confused, are those X/10 chances for anything, or accumulations?


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> I think a next week clown map is worth posting.  Just sayin'.



Here you go.. This would be inches of snow for 10 days from now.


----------



## smokey30725

Darn it. We miss it completely.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Yeah I don't like the systems that give middle Georgia all of the stuff and leaves us up here in north ga out! So im hoping that map don't happen!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

I'd be okay. 4 inches right by my house.


----------



## malak05

hmaddox said:


> So - for Wed night - what do you forecast for W Ga - as well as Sat/Sun?



Haha I got my prelimnary thoughts for Wednesday but I got to wait till tonight's model runs before I go with what I think to see if the precipitation continues to onset faster here and if colder stretches further south.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Here you go.. This would be inches of snow for 10 days from now.



Warrenton is a few miles down the road from my house. 8 inches would be good for me?
Hopefully it will hold serve and the others models will follow. Time will tell. Work your snow mojo DDD?


----------



## RinggoldGa

Wait, you mean TIFTON gets snow and all of us up her in North GA get nada/nothing.

Screw that!

Haven't a couple of our bigger snow storms in the past two years started out on the models similarly and then end up 100-200 miles further north by the time all was said and done?


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Wait, you mean TIFTON gets snow and all of us up her in North GA get nada/nothing.
> 
> Screw that!
> 
> Haven't a couple of our bigger snow storms in the past two years started out on the models similarly and then end up 100-200 miles further north by the time all was said and done?



Correct.  However, I have to show my south GA people some love when I can.


----------



## Mountainbuck

^ yes


----------



## Crakajak

RinggoldGa said:


> Wait, you mean TIFTON gets snow and all of us up her in North GA get nada/nothing.
> 
> Screw that!
> 
> Haven't a couple of our bigger snow storms in the past two years started out on the models similarly and then end up 100-200 miles further north by the time all was said and done?



Ya'll need to learn to share.


----------



## smokey30725

Hmm..........so, do I need the 4wd Z71 or the Toyota Camry to drive from Flintstone to Calhoun on Wednesday?


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> Correct.  However, I have to show my south GA people some love when I can.



I'm with you on that one. That would be awesome for them. 
They can HAVE it.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Hmm..........so, do I need the 4wd Z71 or the Toyota Camry to drive from Flintstone to Calhoun on Wednesday?



Let you know tomorrow.


----------



## DDD

NWS is on the action for Wednesday.


----------



## nickel back

RinggoldGa said:


> Wait, you mean TIFTON gets snow and all of us up her in North GA get nada/nothing.
> 
> Screw that!
> 
> Haven't a couple of our bigger snow storms in the past two years started out on the models similarly and then end up 100-200 miles further north by the time all was said and done?


Get over it....


----------



## Mountainbuck

Could be another snow jam if it holds off until after everyone gets to work !!!


----------



## DDD

18Z GFS not as impressive for Wednesday.

Doesn't mean it will happen that way... just how it has it.

Cold air is mainly north.  You can see it here.


----------



## malak05

Some people say the 18z model runs are crap models.... I hope so cause that sucked


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> Some people say the 18z model runs are crap models.... I hope so cause that sucked



That's because they don't like what they say.


----------



## Priest

I miss typed... 37 weeks pregnant. Thank you for your analysis. I won't be here past Friday, trust me


----------



## GA DAWG

All rgus miller talk makes me thirsty for some reason.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Local met down played both systems. Wednesday and Saturday both.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> NWS is on the action for Wednesday.



Could be a fun ride to work Wednesday am.


----------



## toyota4x4h

That's the map bill race was using earlier. Mostly pink over us up here.


----------



## whitetaco02

toyota4x4h said:


> Yeah I don't like the systems that give middle Georgia all of the stuff and leaves us up here in north ga out! So im hoping that map don't happen!



How often does that even really happen?  Quit trying to hog the snow and show us Middle GA peeps some love! 

I do hope we ALL get some eventually!


----------



## toyota4x4h

whitetaco02 said:


> How often does that even really happen?  Quit trying to hog the snow and show us Middle GA peeps some love!
> 
> I do hope we ALL get some eventually!



Not often but I do remember not last year or maybe year before Atlanta got a good shot and we got rain all day lol


----------



## jf950y

Will the snow that falls wed help the colder Temps get farther south for the Sat event?


----------



## Jeff Phillips

elfiii said:


> Could be a fun ride to work Wednesday am.



I fly back in Wednesday afternoon...


----------



## savreds

DDD said:


> Here you go.. This would be inches of snow for 10 days from now.



Dang! We can't even get some snow on a clown map
Do they have a Bernie Sanders map or something?


----------



## hold em hook

So if 15 of us are planning on heading to Cherokee, NC to go to the Casino Saturday are we gonna make it!?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

hold em hook said:


> So if 15 of us are planning on heading to Cherokee, NC to go to the Casino Saturday are we gonna make it!?



Y'all just pitch in together and buy my house and you won't have to worry about getting snowed in up here!


----------



## malak05

Well Peachtree City has already put a winter weather advisory out for northern counties for Wednesday am... even with the bad 18z GFS some short range and observations must have peeked their curiosity now let's see if GFS and Euro bring us some more potential out of this system tonight


----------



## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> Well Peachtree City has already put a winter weather advisory out for northern counties for Wednesday am... even with the bad 18z GFS some short range and observations must have peeked their curiosity now let's see if GFS and Euro bring us some more potential out of this system tonight



I sure hope more potential comes from the runs this evening.


----------



## smokey30725

todd03blown said:


> I sure hope more potential comes from the runs this evening.



you and me both!


----------



## DDD

hold em hook said:


> So if 15 of us are planning on heading to Cherokee, NC to go to the Casino Saturday are we gonna make it!?



No sir.


----------



## greg_n_clayton

I wish it would snow in leaf lookin season !!!


----------



## DDD

I am updating my blog and I will copy and paste it here once I am done.


----------



## Msteele

Thanks for the updates!


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> I am updating my blog and I will copy and paste it here once I am done.



What's your Blog's link?  Currently following (stalking ) your twitter account......


----------



## malak05

Well the FFC has quite the conversation good info

.UPDATE... WAITED AS LONG AS WE COULD TO GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 18Z MODEL RUNS...BUT AFTER LOOKING THROUGH THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NORTH GEORGIA. ALL 20 MEMBERS OF THE LATEST GEFS SUGGEST AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW AND THE WPC PROBS ALSO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATIONS. MODEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WED AM AS IT SLOWLY DAMPENS OUT. EXPECT SOME THERMODYNAMIC COOLING TO COMMENCE AS THE COLUMN SATURATES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. LOOKING AT MODEL DEWPOINTS FOR TUESDAY...NEAR 0 AS LATE AS TUES EVE. HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT DEWPOINTS THAT LOW AND WITHIN 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION POINTS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT MORE OF A STEADY TREND WHICH IS COMMON IN THESE TYPE SETUPS VS THE STANDARD DIURNAL CURVE. OVERALL THE GFS IS THE COOLEST WHILE THE NAM APPEARS THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS WHICH EVEN IT SUGGESTS WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT THE WINTRY PRECIP TO CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS RATHER QUICKLY PARTICULARLY IN THE WATCH REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST GA CLOSELY...ROME TO ADAIRSVILLE AND POINTS NORTHWEST. MODELS GENERATING THE MOST QPF IN THAT SECTOR BUT TEMPS RISING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION SOONER...SO THERES SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE THERE AND WHAT PTYPE IT WILL BE. CHALLENGES...HOW QUICKLY WILL THE ARCTIC HIGH MODIFY ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AND HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THE WINTRY PRECIP EXTEND. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET WINTRY PRECIP INTO THE METRO DOWN TO I20 GIVEN HOW DRY THE SURFACE IS...HOWEVER...WILL THE PRECIP SHIELD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SOON ENOUGH TO UTILIZE IT.


----------



## jcountry

Omg!!!!

Maybe peachtree city didn't get the memo........

On the interwebs, all caps means u are screaming!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD

https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/


----------



## malak05

00z GFS is running this hopeful will show its hand on just how much impact Wednesday could have down to I20


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> 00z GFS is running this hopeful will show its hand on just how much impact Wednesday could have down to I20



Just looking at what I see up in Tennessee it looks less amped up.  Could just be me, but that's my initial thought.


----------



## DDD

The 00Z GFS for Wednesday / Thursday is almost identical to the 06Z.  Scary almost.


----------



## orrb

OH it would be so lovely if it came down to West I-20  

Thank you guys, for all the hard work you do for us.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/



So it looks like the mtero just has a Lottery pick on the next week.


----------



## DDD

doenightmare said:


> So it looks like the mtero just has a Lottery pick on the next week.



That thing that is 10 days out will change with every model run.


----------



## malak05

I'm just not sure on this setup it's similar to some other freezing rain/snow events that made ATL a nightmare RGEM (Canadian) has a pretty strong freezing rain signal into the Metro area in fact...GFS still is showing something as well...

If Warm air affection (WAA) takes longer to take hold or onset is earlier or just Temps in general bust and are colder the forecast it could be pretty ugly


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> I'm just not sure on this setup it's similar to some other freezing rain/snow events that made ATL a nightmare RGEM (Canadian) has a pretty strong freezing rain signal into the Metro area in fact...GFS still is showing something as well...
> 
> If Warm air affection (WAA) takes longer to take hold or onset is earlier or just Temps in general bust and are colder the forecast it could be pretty ugly



While I agree with you, it's moisture starved.  I am beginning to think a line from Allatoona over to Helen might be a good line as of right now.   If there was more qpf I would be a buyer.


----------



## nickel back

all I got to say bout it


----------



## GA DAWG

All the tv weather folk and all over the net says wed we get something in north Ga. So it probably want happen now


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

The interwebs weather sites are calling for <1" od=fsnow for the central savannah river area on Sat morn.


----------



## RinggoldGa

I know the NWS is usually pretty conservative in their "calls".  Well they released this earlier this morning. 

Don't see the kids in Northwest GA going to school tomorrow.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

GA DAWG said:


> All the tv weather folk and all over the net says wed we get something in north Ga. So it probably want happen now



Every time the weather would come on 106.7 this morning they went out of their way to emphasize mountains of NGA. 

Methinks they doth protest too much.


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> I know the NWS is usually pretty conservative in their "calls".  Well they released this earlier this morning.
> 
> Don't see the kids in Northwest GA going to school tomorrow.




This seems like a pretty solid call map for now... small changes could see that 1 inch and .10 inch ice warning getting down to Northside of ATL we shall watch the models

My high for today I Dallas per TWC is 39 don't see getting to 32 today


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> This seems like a pretty solid call map for now... small changes could see that 1 inch and .10 inch ice warning getting down to Northside of ATL we shall watch the models
> 
> My high for today I Dallas per TWC is 39 don't see getting to 32 today



I live in Ringgold, just south of Chattanooga.  Since I was a child we've always joked about the "snow bubble" over our area keeping us away from the white stuff.

Just looked at the 06z GFS run for Friday.  Starting at hour 90 you get about 6-12 hours of that snow bubble doing some serious work.  

This little valley we live in up here is an absolute snow repellent.  The 90 hr/00z Saturday map shows snow North, South, East, and somewhat West of Chattanooga.  But none IN greater Chattanooga metro area.


----------



## PappyHoel

Well if it's online I don't believe it.


----------



## smokey30725

I see the Triple D light is on. Perhaps he bringeth good news?


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> This seems like a pretty solid call map for now... small changes could see that 1 inch and .10 inch ice warning getting down to Northside of ATL we shall watch the models
> 
> My high for today I Dallas per TWC is 39 don't see getting to 32 today



Sorry, I just can't buy it at this point.

Been a while since I threw the flag on the NWS folks in PTC but I think they are off their rocker on this one.

Their timing simply makes no sense.  They are talking about this starting Wednesday morning.  Go look at any simulated radar you can get your hands on.  The moisture is not even in the state at 3AM.  The majority of it is back in West Tennessee.  IF and I do mean IF that very small fetch of moisture comes into N. GA it **might** keep the temps at or just below the freezing line in the mountains.  Outside of the mountains this is going to be mostly rain or non-accumulating light snow.  Sure, someone may get some flakes, but accumulating snow?  I just can't buy it.

As for the temp in your back yard, it will be 38° by 3-4PM today.  Go check the RAP 2mm temps by 5PM.


The EURO is much more happy about giving out snow to us on Sunday.  I cannot post those maps, but the EURO is much more generous to us with the wrap around moisture and because it is such a large system, we might get more snow out of that one than this clipper tomorrow.


----------



## nickel back

see post 228


and let me add my back yard does not need the rain that it will get in the next few days


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> Sorry, I just can't buy it at this point.
> 
> Been a while since I threw the flag on the NWS folks in PTC but I think they are off their rocker on this one.
> 
> Their timing simply makes no sense.  They are talking about this starting Wednesday morning.  Go look at any simulated radar you can get your hands on.  The moisture is not even in the state at 3AM.  The majority of it is back in West Tennessee.  IF and I do mean IF that very small fetch of moisture comes into N. GA it **might** keep the temps at or just below the freezing line in the mountains.  Outside of the mountains this is going to be mostly rain or non-accumulating light snow.  Sure, someone may get some flakes, but accumulating snow?  I just can't buy it.
> 
> As for the temp in your back yard, it will be 38° by 3-4PM today.  Go check the RAP 2mm temps by 5PM.
> 
> 
> The EURO is much more happy about giving out snow to us on Sunday.  I cannot post those maps, but the EURO is much more generous to us with the wrap around moisture and because it is such a large system, we might get more snow out of that one than this clipper tomorrow.



It's a good day to watch the models and see what they say on surface temps and if they verify or if they are off this will IMO help determine the quickness of the WAA tomorrow and if theres a argument for the colder air remaining in place longer and stronger?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Mark,

Do you think we have a chance of snow Wed night from this clipper system?  

So you think our snow chances are better for Sunday instead of Friday?


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> Sorry, I just can't buy it at this point.
> 
> Been a while since I threw the flag on the NWS folks in PTC but I think they are off their rocker on this one.
> 
> Their timing simply makes no sense.  They are talking about this starting Wednesday morning.  Go look at any simulated radar you can get your hands on.  The moisture is not even in the state at 3AM.  The majority of it is back in West Tennessee.  IF and I do mean IF that very small fetch of moisture comes into N. GA it **might** keep the temps at or just below the freezing line in the mountains.  Outside of the mountains this is going to be mostly rain or non-accumulating light snow.  Sure, someone may get some flakes, but accumulating snow?  I just can't buy it.
> 
> As for the temp in your back yard, it will be 38° by 3-4PM today.  Go check the RAP 2mm temps by 5PM.
> 
> 
> The EURO is much more happy about giving out snow to us on Sunday.  I cannot post those maps, but the EURO is much more generous to us with the wrap around moisture and because it is such a large system, we might get more snow out of that one than this clipper tomorrow.



Say it aint so!!!!!!!!!


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> The EURO is much more happy about giving out snow to us on Sunday.  I cannot post those maps, but the EURO is much more generous to us with the wrap around moisture and because it is such a large system, we might get more snow out of that one than this clipper tomorrow.



Can't post? copyright issue?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

A certain Fox5 met just said via twitter that the mixed precip line is sliding south in more recent modeling.


----------



## PappyHoel

I agree with DDDs assessment.  If the local mets are calling snow it ain't gonna happen.  They rarely get it right.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Its gunna hit during rush hour!


----------



## malak05

Triple D is right as Models temp levels show warm enough temps to avoid wintry stuff around Atlanta and points just north of Atlanta...But as a guy who works in Sandy Springs and commutes a hour 15 minutes home everyday to Dallas I dread these setups as in the past for ATL a slight variation in temps or moisture can have truly crappy results for commutes and people.

Speaking from experience...I'll be traveling heavy tomorrow in my car just in case


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> It's a good day to watch the models and see what they say on surface temps and if they verify or if they are off this will IMO help determine the quickness of the WAA tomorrow and if theres a argument for the colder air remaining in place longer and stronger?



I will say, the wet bulbs and dry cold air at the surface may play havoc and make me sound the fool.  Wouldn't be the first time.

You are 100% correct, today will be a GREAT day to gauge the temp profiles.  The RAP is usually pretty good on that stuff, but we will see.  

Yesterday was a bust for sure.  If that clipper starts fetching more moisture from the south, look for the temps to climb tomorrow.


----------



## DDD

MariettaDawg said:


> Can't post? copyright issue?



Yes.  The EURO maps are off limits to repost.  Everything else I can post in moderation.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> Mark,
> 
> Do you think we have a chance of snow Wed night from this clipper system?
> 
> Yes.  There is always a chance  I just absolutely hate the set up.  The moisture is chasing the cold, but the temp profiles are the big ??? because many times the models do not account for evaporational cooling or they don't pick up on the density of the air therefor leaving the door wide open to "surprise".
> 
> So you think our snow chances are better for Sunday instead of Friday?



The wrap around moisture that the GFS and the EURO continue to advertise would make a lot of people north of I-20 happy for the year.  Only problem with wrap around moisture is, as it comes East and the system pulls up the coast the moisture leaves with it in a hurry.  It is a deal where Birmingham may get DUMPED 4" or better and by the time it reaches Douglasville it's flurries and ATL gets 0

ALSO!  Saturday afternoon will be when the wrap around moisture hits.  Not Sunday.


----------



## DDD

The NAM is moisture starved.  This is fresh off the wire.


----------



## RinggoldGa

In the one NWS discussion I read from ATL in discussion of this morning's forecast the wet bulb temps seemed to be where he was hanging his hat in developing the call map.  

I'm tired of this almost/maybe/just possible if we hit it just right forecasting.

I'm ready for one of those "it's not a matter of if it's going to snow but just a matter of how much" type storms.


----------



## blood on the ground

RinggoldGa said:


> In the one NWS discussion I read from ATL in discussion of this morning's forecast the wet bulb temps seemed to be where he was hanging his hat in developing the call map.
> 
> I'm tired of this almost/maybe/just possible if we hit it just right forecasting.
> 
> I'm ready for one of those "it's not a matter of if it's going to snow but just a matter of how much" type storms.



Then you better pick up and move way north of Ringgold Ga.


----------



## nickel back

RinggoldGa said:


> In the one NWS discussion I read from ATL in discussion of this morning's forecast the wet bulb temps seemed to be where he was hanging his hat in developing the call map.
> 
> I'm tired of this almost/maybe/just possible if we hit it just right forecasting.
> 
> I'm ready for one of those "it's not a matter of if it's going to snow but just a matter of how much" type storms.



you need to move north then


----------



## toyota4x4h

I was hoping to be reading more encouraging news today about the system tomorrow but you guys are making me sad!


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, this may be a dumb question, but it seems like winter storms are the hardest to predict? I've seen so many changes from the local mets and ones on twitter that it is nearly frustrating. I can only imagine the pressure on you since some of the decision makers rely on you for accurate forecast info. We truly thank you for all you put up with from us.


----------



## nickel back

blood on the ground said:


> Then you better pick up and move way north of Ringgold Ga.



lol beat me to it....

but I understand what he is saying.It's like something has changed cause getting snow here in Ga. is like understanding my wife.....almost impossible


----------



## RinggoldGa

blood on the ground said:


> Then you better pick up and move way north of Ringgold Ga.



No kidding!


----------



## PappyHoel

That's enough in Dawson county to make me work from home tomorrow


----------



## PappyHoel

PappyHoel said:


> That's enough in Dawson county to make me work from home tomorrow



I take that back w underground just changed to all cold rain.


----------



## jcountry

Great update from Matt East:

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

Looks like it will go north.   But the east coast from north carolina to NY could be in for a mess.


----------



## blood on the ground

RinggoldGa said:


> No kidding!



Let me know if you do and I will go with ya... Let's add West to that North also!


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> DDD, this may be a dumb question, but it seems like winter storms are the hardest to predict? I've seen so many changes from the local mets and ones on twitter that it is nearly frustrating. I can only imagine the pressure on you since some of the decision makers rely on you for accurate forecast info. We truly thank you for all you put up with from us.



By far.  No question about it, especially in this region.  My head is swimming with information this morning.


----------



## DDD

GFS is off and running... let's see what she says...


----------



## DDD

While I am waiting on the GFS, what happens tomorrow will directly affect what happens with the weekend storm.  If the ground has more snow and ice on it from tomorrow's system, the CAD is going to be affected significantly in my opinion for the weekend system and NE GA could be in for a mess.  I am trying to take one system at a time though.

I would hate to be a TV met in GA, SC or NC from now to Sunday.


----------



## DDD

Also while I am waiting, just pulled this off of WxSouth's facebook page.



> The new model runs are beginning, and first out is NAM. Suprisingly good agreement with the Globals on this on its last frames, ending Friday night, and it shows a major Ice Storm in North Carolina Piedmont, and now is colder at the surface for northern SC and northeast GA. This drops over 1" to about 1.5" liquid equivalent into sub freezing air around the 85 corridor and west through the Triad down to Hickory, which would be a dangerous and destructive icestorm. I suspect all models are not cold enough yet , since they have the strong high in a perfect spot in PA and western New York funneliing down low level cold air, trends usually go toward colder in a damming event east of the Apps.
> It clobbers much of central, northern Kentucky with big time snow totals and is just beginning for Virgnia, already some foot amounts though in VA and western NC. (lots of sleet mixed in probably near there). This only goes out to Friday night (much more snow coming for WVa. VA, MD and DE, NC)
> I'll have a full breakdown at my site after all model runs today as well as put out the alert here on FB. Sorry but I can't answer all the questions about how much snow and ice will occur, wish I could, but my time is limited at FB.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

I'm betting on an early dismissal from school tomorrow before noon.


----------



## toyota4x4h

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I'm betting on an early dismissal from school tomorrow before noon.



In Blairsville? I doubt you guys will go at all..I bet they cancel for murray county also.


----------



## nickel back

Just a good ole cold rain for most folks.....


----------



## DDD

So, 12Z GFS is very light on precip for Wednesday.  What I am bothered by and everyone needs to pay attention to this, is this reminds me a lot of Snowjam 2014.  

Very light precip, super cold surface temps.  Whatever falls, sticks and it's SLICK.  While the totals will not be large, the impact on travel may be.


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> So, 12Z GFS is very light on precip for Wednesday.  What I am bothered by and everyone needs to pay attention to this, is this reminds me a lot of Snowjam 2014.
> 
> Very light precip, super cold surface temps.  Whatever falls, sticks and it's SLICK.  While the totals will not be large, the impact on travel may be.



As long as I can not go into work Im fine with any amounts! 
Thank ya for the work DDD


----------



## smokey30725

This would be a good time for everyone to make sure that they and their loved ones are prepared in their car for a situation like this. Full gas tank, blankets, and an emergency kit with at least a good flashlight with fresh batteries, emergency food (cereal bars, candy bars, peanut butter crackers, etc.) emergency water (water bottles will freeze, I have the water pouches from Emergency Essentials.com and they have not frozen yet in the 10 years I have been using them), a tool kit, a sturdy pair of shoes, and a cell phone charger.


----------



## smokey30725

A bag of cat litter is also good for getting traction if you become stuck. Pour it in front of and behind any tires that are stuck and it will definitely help you out.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> This would be a good time for everyone to make sure that they and their loved ones are prepared in their car for a situation like this. Full gas tank, blankets, and an emergency kit with at least a good flashlight with fresh batteries, emergency food (cereal bars, candy bars, peanut butter crackers, etc.) emergency water (water bottles will freeze, I have the water pouches from Emergency Essentials.com and they have not frozen yet in the 10 years I have been using them), a tool kit, a sturdy pair of shoes, and a cell phone charger.



You know it sounds sorta silly, but how quickly people forget the situation that evolved on 75 just 2 years ago.


----------



## malak05

GFS nothing but cold rain for ATL
Canadian pretty ICY look for ATL burbs 

So it's a war of surface temp profiles... Seeing how they perform today may hint at tomorrow's impacts and it's best for anyone traveling to be prepared for the just in case variable as you know the Metro area particular becomes a nightmare pretty quickly


----------



## DDD

If you folks are the praying type, start praying for the folks in the upstate of North Carolina, one raging ice storm is starting to take focus.  1-1.5" of ICE wide spread would put a strain on people's lives and welfare.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> If you folks are the praying type, start praying for the folks in the upstate of North Carolina, one raging ice storm is starting to take focus.  1-1.5" of ICE wide spread would put a strain on people's lives and welfare.



I've already started sounding the alarm for the Charlotte area.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> If you folks are the praying type, start praying for the folks in the upstate of North Carolina, one raging ice storm is starting to take focus.  1-1.5" of ICE wide spread would put a strain on people's lives and welfare.



I have seen some of those model runs and other folks talking on this topic. That would be horrible for those folks


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> While I am waiting on the GFS, what happens tomorrow will directly affect what happens with the weekend storm.  If the ground has more snow and ice on it from tomorrow's system, the CAD is going to be affected significantly in my opinion for the weekend system and NE GA could be in for a mess.  I am trying to take one system at a time though.
> 
> I would hate to be a TV met in GA, SC or NC from now to Sunday.



Read a discussion from NWS Huntsville a bit ago.  He ran through all the possible scenarios and then mentioned that a single degree in either direction could dramatically change the forecast.  

Really not fair to those guys when a single degree has such dramatic impact on what will happen in real time.  To further add to their misery is they are looking at model runs that show that one degree difference in both directions.  

These guys will be earning their pay.

Just saw a patient who moved here from up north this year.  They laughed when I told them to not expect kids in school tomorrow.  I told them about the ice issues we had with a small amount of precip in 2014 because as you mentioned, this is eerily similar.


----------



## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I've already started sounding the alarm for the Charlotte area.



Charlotte is not under the gun in this setup.  Its more up towards the northern 1/2 of the state.


----------



## DDD

I am very interested to see the EURO maps... they will be out in about an hour.


----------



## PappyHoel

89 people in watching.... Nothing to see here folks move along move along.


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> 89 people in watching.... Nothing to see here folks move along move along.



Mine says 93.  Obviously you have lost 4 fans.


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin'

DDD said:


> I am very interested to see the EURO maps... they will be out in about an hour.



.......its been about an hour. 

And we wait.


----------



## malak05

This is not a FORECAST...

But just to give an idea of the potential for tomorrow if Temps don't cooperate and are not as high as modeled. The CMC which is generally a colder solution has this for tomorrow and it's is very close making people have a bad day tomorrow.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Charlotte is not under the gun in this setup.  Its more up towards the northern 1/2 of the state.



Okay. Based on that we're, here in GA, in no real danger either.


----------



## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> This is not a FORECAST...
> 
> But just to give an idea of the potential for tomorrow if Temps don't cooperate and are not as high as modeled. The CMC which is generally a colder solution has this for tomorrow and it's is very close making people have a bad day tomorrow.



wow...that is going to be an icy mess if something like this pans out.


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> This is not a FORECAST...
> 
> But just to give an idea of the potential for tomorrow if Temps don't cooperate and are not as high as modeled. The CMC which is generally a colder solution has this for tomorrow and it's is very close making people have a bad day tomorrow.



Lets hope that doesn't verify.


----------



## DDD

No doubt, Canadian is a worst case scenario.  It keeps temps COLD.


----------



## DDD

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> .......its been about an hour.
> 
> And we wait.



Can't go by the GON clock... 12:30PMish


----------



## smokey30725

What do we want? The Euro info! When do we want it? Right now!


----------



## PappyHoel

How often are the model temps wrong? It appears they vary?


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> Just a good ole cold rain for most folks.....


----------



## smokey30725

PappyHoel said:


> How often are the model temps wrong? It appears they vary?



Right now, they seem to flip flop as much as Obama during a speech.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD has left the building to return to the Fortress of Weathertude. Updates will surely come soon.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

PappyHoel said:


> How often are the model temps wrong? It appears they vary?



From reading other threads the variance is caused by the models not dealing with evaporative cooling well. That cooling has taken us from 33 and a cold rain to 31 and big heavy flakes a few times that weren't caught before. 

But that's just me regurgitating what I've seen here.


----------



## DDD

EURO is running....


----------



## elandil

DDD said:


> EURO is running....



Run, EURO, Run....I wanna see some snow..


----------



## DDD

She is further south and slower.... Dig baby Dig!!!


----------



## malak05

elandil said:


> Run, EURO, Run....I wanna see some snow..




Really Digging on this run
and the GFS spit out a more southern solution is it yielding???


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD said:


> She is further south and slower.... Dig baby Dig!!!



Give that baby a back ho. We need a lot of digging. Also would rather have snow that messy ice.


----------



## PappyHoel

Come on work from home with white stuff.  Our corporation as usual is waiting on wsbtv.


----------



## K80

For tomorrow or Saturday?


----------



## DDD

K80 said:


> For tomorrow or Saturday?



Friday / Saturday


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> Friday / Saturday



Oh.....


----------



## DDD

There is so much going on on these maps it will take me some time to sort through the details.

Main concern right now on that I see is STRONG CAD signal down into NE GA with ungodly amounts of moisture.


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> There is so much going on on these maps it will take me some time to sort through the details.
> 
> Main concern right now on that I see is STRONG CAD signal down into NE GA with ungodly amounts of moisture.



what days?


----------



## DDD

I will say this... the trend is our friend on the EURO.  Have mercy.


----------



## DDD

MariettaDawg said:


> what days?



Friday night would be CAD, lets see what the wrap around moisture does...could drop a bonus snow on the back side.


----------



## Buckfever 2

what's it all mean?


----------



## malak05

Good signs for Backside Snow for parts of Georgia for sure


----------



## DDD

WOW... EURO snow map is going to be something I wish I could post.  It's not done yet either...


----------



## DDD

I will draw up the outputs on a separate map.  Give me a little bit of time.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Thanks DDD


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> WOW... EURO snow map is going to be something I wish I could post.  It's not done yet either...



There any free places to view those models like the GFS/NAM or is the EURO only available to subscription sites like WxBell?


----------



## jbird1

Temp is underperforming in N Forsyth...popped up to 34 deg. and back down to freezing at 1:30.  Forecast was for 39 degrees.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD  Wow Euro had 38 inches for NC. Crazy.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> There any free places to view those models like the GFS/NAM or is the EURO only available to subscription sites like WxBell?



NAM and GFS both available on the NOAA website.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> NAM and GFS both available on the NOAA website.



My question was poorly worded.  Malak had provided links to GFS and NAM. 

Was looking for free Euro.  

Said heck with it and joined WxBell.


----------



## nickel back

this darn thing just may tap into the gulf more than I thought , did not see it going that far south????


----------



## DDD

Found one out on the web that I can post.  Shazam.  

(From N. GA Wx Facebook page)


----------



## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> Temp is underperforming in N Forsyth...popped up to 34 deg. and back down to freezing at 1:30.  Forecast was for 39 degrees.



That's exactly my thinking. A lot of these forecasts seem to have been predicated on us being warmer than we actually are.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Found one out on the web that I can post.  Shazam.
> 
> (From N. GA Wx Facebook page)



My parents are under that 48" reading in VA


----------



## DDD

This would combine Wednesday and the Friday / Saturday systems together.  Snow only.  Ice may be a whole nother story.


----------



## todd03blown

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> That's exactly my thinking. A lot of these forecasts seem to have been predicated on us being warmer than we actually are.



Yep. Looks like they will be off by 3-4 degrees based on the forecast highs.


----------



## K80

DDD said:


> Found one out on the web that I can post.  Shazam.
> 
> (From N. GA Wx Facebook page)



If we could get that to shift south 30 miles...


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Found one out on the web that I can post.  Shazam.
> 
> (From N. GA Wx Facebook page)



Can't make the euro I'm looking at on Wx Bell recreate this map.  

I'm like a 9 year old with keys to a car and no idea what the CensoredCensoredCensoredCensored to do with them.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Typically 40 inches of snow coming and all but 4 counties in get 2 inches Hahahah I'll take it though . Maybe it will come sw more


----------



## Buckfever 2

todd03blown said:


> Yep. Looks like they will be off by 3-4 degrees based on the forecast highs.



yep today's high earlier for Dallas Georgia was 38, then it was 36, now it is 34... All from the Weather Channel


----------



## jbird1

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> That's exactly my thinking. A lot of these forecasts seem to have been predicated on us being warmer than we actually are.



As soon as I said that it jumped to 36...it's still not gonna be 39 for several hours like they forecast I don't think...we'll see


----------



## DDD

Now that I have come down off my EURO high... The EURO is further south (most south of all models) it is a colder solution with strong CAD signature, however VERBATIM the cold temps are finally down to freezing when the bulk of the moisture is past.  However, not sure if evaporational cooling is accounted for or not, but it is razor close to an ICE storm for typical CAD areas.  

Upstate SC is for sure in an Ice storm as well as parts of North Carolina south of I-85 in SC.

As you can see from the maps, one unbelievable snow storm North of I-85 in SC and NC and Virginia is BURIED.

Keep in mind that the EURO is the most south with it's solution.

Today is Tuesday so many more model runs to go and quite frankly the GFS, NAM, EURO and Canadian are all giving different solutions.  Miles make the difference.   If this was a Miller A system, the low would be farther south and we would be golden, but it's not.  More than likely snow lovers here in Georgia will be left to watch the TV and see what is happening in extreme NE GA and how Virginia folks can't find their cars.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Super


----------



## jbird1

Back to 34..I don't think I've ever seen up and down fluctuations in temp like this...pretty weird.  I might be on the battle ground between CAD and Westerly flow is all I can think.


----------



## DDD

Let me also say, if the EURO comes about 50-75 miles farther south, you are going to need a special pass to get on the board, because this thread will EXPLODE.


----------



## PappyHoel

Fizzle popped for Dawsonville tomorrow


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Let me also say, if the EURO comes about 50-75 miles farther south, you are going to need a special pass to get on the board, because this thread will EXPLODE.



The trend is our friend. That southern trend will continue


----------



## Matt.M

todd03blown said:


> The trend is our friend. That southern trend will continue



Double down on that!!!


----------



## todd03blown

Matt.M said:


> Double down on that!!!



Oh yeah! I think this last model run it moved another 75 miles south.

DDD confirm that. Might have been 100.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Oh yeah! I think this last model run it moved another 75 miles south.
> 
> DDD confirm that. Might have been 100.



It was like about 50-75.  I won't expect a lot of shift south but I would expect it to trend colder.


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD, how do things look for south and southwest Georgia in all this?


----------



## smokey30725

What about NW Georgia? We going to get to stock up on French toast ingredients????


----------



## topfuelgirl

We are the dancing beagles???


----------



## NCHillbilly

Local forecast here is for snow from tomorrow through Saturday. Yay. (sarcasm.) It was 8* here with a howling north wind this morning, hasn't gotten above freezing for a few days now. It snowed twice over the weekend. Point them beagles toward Florida.


----------



## DDD

Nicodemus said:


> DDD, how do things look for south and southwest Georgia in all this?



Cold and wet.  Nothing frozen.


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Cold and wet.  Nothing frozen.





Thank you kindly.


----------



## DDD

Focus is so hard right now... tomorrow should not be over looked.  Timing, temps and low level cold is starting to concern me for freezing rain 2014 event all over again.


----------



## Jeff Raines

My wife is a bus driver in Paulding County,she has over heard teachers asking what DDD is saying about the weather.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Make that a beagle **SNOW** dance NOT ice dance!


----------



## rydert

DDD said:


> Cold and wet.  Nothing frozen.



sounds like a goot day to just sit by the far.......


----------



## DDD

Jeff Raines said:


> My wife is a bus driver in Paulding County,she has over heard teachers asking what DDD is saying about the weather.



I am about to post up what the school systems need to be most concerned with.  3 maps coming up.


----------



## zworley3

DDD said:


> Focus is so hard right now... tomorrow should not be over looked.  Timing, temps and low level cold is starting to concern me for freezing rain 2014 event all over again.



What are your thoughts as to timing of this event?


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Focus is so hard right now... tomorrow should not be over looked.  Timing, temps and low level cold is starting to concern me for freezing rain 2014 event all over again.



You're about to earn you weatherman stipend over the next 8hrs then again come Thursday



I just grabbed this info from another location. For those wanting to know about the trending south.

_The Euro keeps trending farther south with the shortwave that rolls through the Great Lakes and into New England from hrs 15-39.  That in concert with the building west coast ridge forces our Pacific wave to dig well south.  The Great Lakes shortwave seems to be the key piece that has trended south (the Pacific wave is forced to track underneath the confluence in its wake).  If the flow was flat out ahead of our Pacific wave, it would lift north._


----------



## smokey30725

topfuelgirl said:


> Make that a beagle **SNOW** dance NOT ice dance!



I'll do my best to clarify to them what we want, but we have to remember that these are critters that are easily bribed. I'm pretty sure NCHillbilly has been sneaking them beef jerky in order to keep them from dancing.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I'm confused. Is there no chance of snow in north ga for the fri/sat system as of right now?


----------



## malak05

I feeling pretty assured that the temps are gonna be off by about 3 degrees for most on average. It's  32F in Dallas per NOAA had a high of 36F this morning and peak heating is just about over and gonna start going down again with the clear skies.


----------



## DDD

Let's deal with first things first.  The system coming in tomorrow looks to cause a lot of trouble for traveling.  It will not be a huge snow maker except for the extreme N. GA mountain counties.  That said, these two maps are chances of accumulating freezing rain.  One is for greater than .01" (light glaze)  the other is for .10" (a crust) of freezing rain.  

This cannot be ignored or side tracked.  I think people get lost in "It's only 1" of snow", however, because of the temps and cold air getting trapped at the surface, freezing rain seems to be what could cause a mess tomorrow.


----------



## malak05

If the weekend event gets close to a Miller A look in future runs with it's colder look on EURO and Moisture it's gonna be pretty Epic in this board


----------



## DDD

As you can see, it is confined to the northern 3rd of the state.

Also, please don't ask me how much in your county or your back yard, the maps should be enough to cover that.  This system tomorrow is not going to make you a snow man, its going to make a mess where the temps are cold enough.


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> If the weekend event gets close to a Miller A look in future runs with it's colder look on EURO and Moisture it's gonna be pretty Epic in this board



While I wish for that, I don't know in all my weather history have I ever seen a system come from the midwest (typical Miller B) and turn into a Miller A.  I am not saying it won't happen because God knows I want it to happen, but it would be a once in a lifetime if it does it.


----------



## DDD

Winter Storm Warning about to pop for Georgia, expect schools to call it before it starts.


----------



## toyota4x4h

We just got the warning in Murray co DDD


----------



## DDD

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-200345-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.160120T0900Z-160121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.160120T1200Z-160121T0600Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
244 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR IMPACTS DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
  SUMMERVILLE...TO DAWSONVILLE...TO HELEN.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.
  ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN
  MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
  MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
  GREATEST IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AT PRECIPITATION ONSET WEDNESDAY
  MORNING DUE TO THE VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
  NORTH GEORGIA BY 6AM THEN SLOWLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY
  MIDDAY AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
  HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 2000 FT...OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL
  REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.


----------



## mountainpass

https://www.facebook.com/NWSAtlanta/photos/p.1112424215437006/1112424215437006/?type=3&theater


----------



## smokey30725

the panicking has begun at work.


----------



## hmaddox

DDD - looking at your maps - looks like brown green band s for NW counties (Cobb, Paulding, etc).  What do those bands mean , no legend to explain?


----------



## toyota4x4h

smokey30725 said:


> the panicking has begun at work.



SAME HERE lol. OMG we gotta go get bread! 
Little do they know I follow DDD and knew there was potential for this last week so I went to the store Friday!


----------



## todd03blown

hmaddox said:


> DDD - looking at your maps - looks like brown green band s for NW counties (Cobb, Paulding, etc).  What do those bands mean , no legend to explain?



These are the %'s.


----------



## DDD

hmaddox said:


> DDD - looking at your maps - looks like brown green band s for NW counties (Cobb, Paulding, etc).  What do those bands mean , no legend to explain?



Brown (outer fringe) is 1-5% of accumulating ice, orange (in the middle) is 80-90% probable of accumulating ice.  You can relatively guess / estimate probability between those ends.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> the panicking has begun at work.



You started it.


----------



## jbird1

I'm really a big fan of power...sure hope the quantity underperforms..


----------



## hmaddox

DDD - thanks - teachers in Paulding are wondering - based on one map looks like it could give us something.  Will be watching this feed throughout the evening.


----------



## DDD

hmaddox said:


> DDD - thanks - teachers in Paulding are wondering - based on one map looks like it could give us something.  Will be watching this feed throughout the evening.



Paulding will be on the line.  Literally 10 miles or 1° +/- could make a big difference.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> You started it.



You obviously missed the post where I just got heavily vested in Kroger stock.........


----------



## hmaddox

DDD - thanks - getting the word out with your maps


----------



## DDD

It is quite possible that the temps will rebound and the cold will not get trapped at the surface.  Very, very tough call and set up.


----------



## PappyHoel

I'm working from home again


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> It is quite possible that the temps will rebound and the cold will not get trapped at the surface.  Very, very tough call and set up.




It's interesting to watch the could cover move from the NE MS/NW Alabama that could have huge implications for us tomorrow....

If it makes it thru tonight temps bottom out over clear skies and then that cloud cover holds up and moves in during the early morning hours it will help greatly in trapping cold air at the surface and make the temps forecast miss and the WAA take longer to win the day which would be pretty significant.

Part now-casting these are the X & Os that eventually help spell the outcome of whats being dealt with tomorrow


----------



## GA DAWG

I might Better drive ol Betsy tomorrow?


----------



## Crakajak

GA DAWG said:


> I might Better drive ol Betsy tomorrow?


I would take the day off. Nothing happening for me. So off to work I'll go.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Hide the beagles ice skates!!!


----------



## Robbie101

Crakajak said:


> I would take the day off. Nothing happening for me. So off to work I'll go.



Same here. I'll be here at the office watching woodies hitting the refresh button 8 thousand times hoping it shifts south (only snow. Don't want no ice) about 75 more miles.

Prolly won't happen but I can hope right!


----------



## DDD

The trend for Friday / Saturday system is our friend.   The further south it trends, if nothing else, we will be closer to the comma head of  the system and the wrap around moisture / snow would impress a lot of people.  Including me.


----------



## Crakajak

Robbie101 said:


> Same here. I'll be here at the office watching woodies hitting the refresh button 8 thousand times hoping it shifts south (only snow. Don't want no ice) about 75 more miles.
> 
> Prolly won't happen but I can hope right!



I'm ready for a good snow day. Might even try to look for some dancing beagles.


----------



## Mountainbuck

I'm scared


----------



## Etoncathunter

toyota4x4h said:


> We just got the warning in Murray co DDD



And Murray schools just got called off for tomorrow.


----------



## DDD

Etoncathunter said:


> And Murray schools just got called off for tomorrow.



This is going to be an afternoon thing... so I don't blame those very northern counties at all.

Temps and amount of moisture will be everything tomorrow.


----------



## Lawdog1

The trend is our friend, guess I will settle in for this one and see where is goes... Thanks DDD for all you do my friend.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD, that GFS and NAM running now?


----------



## DDD

Pretty good looking CAD signature, this is for tomorrow evening.


----------



## malak05

I joked and bashed the 18z GFS runs yesterday but today's run does add moisture to the leading edge and even hints onset as snow down to northern burbs.


----------



## DDD

GFS is headed towards the EURO for sure.  So was the NAM.

So now what we need is the EURO to come in more south or at least more cold.


----------



## GA DAWG

Does Cad mean ice or what?


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Does Cad mean ice or what?



CAD is cold air damming and yes, freezing rain.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> GFS is headed towards the EURO for sure.  So was the NAM.
> 
> So now what we need is the EURO to come in more south or at least more cold.



What time does the evening EURO run actually become available?


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> What time does the evening EURO run actually become available?



After midnight.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> After midnight.



Someone get DDD a thermos of coffee and some Monster energy drinks. He gonna be a busy boy!


----------



## dsceviour

Think we will get snow in barrow county?


----------



## dsceviour

Also do you think this could be turning into a Miller A? I just saw the 18z GFS is trending towards king euro! If euro keeps trending south we could be in big money!!


----------



## DDD

dsceviour said:


> Think we will get snow in barrow county?



See post #357


----------



## toyota4x4h

Paul Barys channel 3 out of Chattanooga said on his 5pm talk very little here if anything and it'll be after lunch tomorrow. Nothing to worry about here. What the heck? Sounded like things were coming together


----------



## Mountainbuck

I feel heart break coming on. But Paul is normal negative. But he is a 30 year vet. Met


----------



## todd03blown

toyota4x4h said:


> Paul Barys channel 3 out of Chattanooga said on his 5pm talk very little here if anything and it'll be after lunch tomorrow. Nothing to worry about here. What the heck? Sounded like things were coming together



These folks usually speak based off the latest model runs and giving the fact these things are still changing every run. They will not sound any alarms until they firmly believe in what will happen.

This is my take at least on his statements.


----------



## Mountainbuck

DDD set him straight


----------



## higgy




----------



## PappyHoel

Someone please inform wsbtv news anchors that it's pronounced 'Blaarsville' and 'lect-ricity'.  That is all


----------



## elfiii

Mountainbuck said:


> DDD set him straight



That's what I'm talkin' about.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Ima on the cusp of a warning/advisory!


----------



## PappyHoel

Wsbtv has Dawson county covered in white.  Schools haven't been called yet.


----------



## PappyHoel

Breaking out the dog


----------



## mguthrie

Closing schools in norf ga already. Must be something to it. I work outside,so I'd rather see clear and sunny. Hope that stuff stays north of I-20


----------



## PappyHoel

When's the next model run thingy?


----------



## GA DAWG

They aint saying much about sat on the t an v. Said maybe some flurries.


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> They aint saying much about sat on the t an v. Said maybe some flurries.



First things first.  They are still nowcasting tomorrow.  Our county just got declared a state of emergency by governor deal.


----------



## snarlinbear

I'm curious about what county that is that the weather can specifically target?  I'm more inclined to believe that was a set piece move to protect another minion from having to be sacrificed on the alter of political correctness like happened in 2014.


----------



## todd03blown

GA DAWG said:


> They aint saying much about sat on the t an v. Said maybe some flurries.



Your best person for reliable WX is DDD, right here on GON.

You can follow him on Twitter too. GON weather guy.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Snow snow snow here in the forecast from late tonight until Saturday. Winter weather advisory. I'll have a fun 80-mile commute tomorrow in second-gear 4wd.


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> First things first.  They are still nowcasting tomorrow.  Our county just got declared a state of emergency by governor deal.


Bout time.


----------



## Bitteroot

Calhoun City Schools closed....


----------



## elandil

PappyHoel said:


> First things first.  They are still nowcasting tomorrow.  Our county just got declared a state of emergency by governor deal.



which counties?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

NCHillbilly said:


> Snow snow snow here in the forecast from late tonight until Saturday. Winter weather advisory. I'll have a fun 80-mile commute tomorrow in second-gear 4wd.



Just start now!  Make half the commute while the roads are still good.  Duh.


----------



## PappyHoel

elandil said:


> which counties?



All 15 NE GA counties.


----------



## elandil

PappyHoel said:


> All 15 NE GA counties.



well thats no fun...I'm NW Ga....


----------



## todd03blown

elandil said:


> which counties?


The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for Wednesday.  Additional counties have also been added to for the threat of winter weather.  The winter storm warning and state of emergency includes Catoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Dawson, Fannin, Gilmer, Gordon, Lumpkin, Murray, Pickens, Towns, Union, Walker, White, Whitfield.  Additional counties have been added to a winter weather advisory: Banks, Bartow, Cherokee, Floyd, Forsyth, and Hall.


----------



## PappyHoel

They still haven't closed Dawson county schools.  My girls are getting excited.


----------



## DDD

I may not update the board until the morning. I'm not impressed for tomorrow afternoon. I may have to hang my hopes on wrap around moisture on Saturday. 

I may or may not be up late tonight. 

I will do my best if I hear or see anything of interest.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Union County just cancelled school.  I'm turning off my alarm clock.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Shhh...DDD is here...


----------



## PappyHoel

toyota4x4h said:


> Shhh...DDD is here...



He's not feeling it, he's going to bed.


----------



## GA DAWG

Use to they'd have to be blizzard like conditions to close schools. We were in Cherokee co and they'd have to hear it was snowing in cartersville before calling it. Now you even say snowflake. Bam no school.


----------



## grizzlyblake

Probably stems from all the kids stuck on buses all night during snowmageddon. The school folks lose either way. Keep the kids at school and it snows and everyone freaks. Call it off and no snow and everyone complains.


----------



## toyota4x4h

PappyHoel said:


> He's not feeling it, he's going to bed.



I know! And I realllllly wasn't wanting to go to work tomorrow!


----------



## Mountainbuck

Malak, what happened?


----------



## malak05

Mountainbuck said:


> Malak, what happened?



Nothing I suppose latest 18z GFS came in showing more moisture and Temps bout same too... The RAP short range model at is max time line was light on moisture as front came to GA but colder then others and NAM still light on moisture but it's been light from beginning I wouldn't worry bout RAP give it some time


----------



## Mountainbuck

Thanks brother. Cold night in Ga tonight


----------



## JonathanG2013

The precip amount is very light. That is was stinks.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Malak05 And DDD both got it going on! And thanks again


----------



## PappyHoel

Just got the call, Dawson County schools are closed tomorrow.


----------



## chewy32

Pickens is closed heard the already declared state of emergency bout to head to the store to get ... Beer


----------



## malak05

What I miss haha


----------



## littlenewt

malak05 said:


> What I miss haha



Not a thing. Thanks for all that you and DDD do to keep us updated. ?


----------



## chewy32

Hope it wasent me I was being serious


----------



## DDD

Guys, NAM is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy south.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> Guys, NAM is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy south.



I suppose we ate talking particular weekend correct


----------



## Head East

That sounds serious.  Is that below I-20?  East?


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> I suppose we ate talking particular weekend correct



That is for the Friday/Saturday system.


----------



## TBean95

DDD said:


> That is for the Friday/Saturday system.



WooHoo!  But not too far south I hope!


----------



## fireman401

How about south of Macon and Perry????  Wishful thinking at its best!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> As you can see, it is confined to the northern 3rd of the state.
> 
> Also, please don't ask me how much in your county or your back yard, the maps should be enough to cover that.  This system tomorrow is not going to make you a snow man, its going to make a mess where the temps are cold enough.





dsceviour said:


> Think we will get snow in barrow county?





DDD said:


> See post #357





Mountainbuck said:


> DDD set him straight





elfiii said:


> That's what I'm talkin' about.


Folks please refrain from making fluff comments, and read back to pay attention to the maps..........DDD spends a lot of time analyzing weather maps to give his take on what he is seeing.........Most of the maps he posts will give you IMBY info If you take the time to look for it.


----------



## tr21

it's going to do something ! my huskie is in the yard chasing his tail, he thinks it's going to snow or maybe he was passing the chili we had for dinner


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Guys, NAM is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy south.



Wow.....I love this friend of ours, mr.trend


----------



## malak05

GFS is a go


----------



## lbzdually

So the system coming in tomorrow is not going to be a producer, in your opinion DDD, correct.  I've got a Dr. appointment I really don't want to miss in the morning at 8 AM in Dalton.  If this system does hit tomorrow, what time will it hit NWGA?


----------



## RinggoldGa

lbzdually said:


> So the system coming in tomorrow is not going to be a producer, in your opinion DDD, correct.  I've got a Dr. appointment I really don't want to miss in the morning at 8 AM in Dalton.  If this system does hit tomorrow, what time will it hit NWGA?



Shouldn't hit NWGA till around 10 I believe.


----------



## malak05

Well 00z GFS for tomorrow from 2-6PM has my attention...


----------



## DDD

Alright, very quickly as I am looking around the web at some things.  Check out my twitter feed and you will see the picture that the Mexican put up.  Basically the current radar is more juicer than any simulated radar I have seen.  Temps are colder on the surface than progged.  The NWS ice accumulation map has increased and dropped south.  As the Mesican said, the situation is changing faster than the models can spit out the forecast.


----------



## JewelsTurn

Legend for colors?


----------



## todd03blown

JewelsTurn said:


> Legend for colors?


I posted it earlier. Go back a few pages.

Post #366


----------



## toyota4x4h

I don't like that nearly 100% chance pink blob right over me lol


----------



## DDD

JewelsTurn said:


> Legend for colors?



Red is 100%  / Brown is 5%.  Chance of greater than .01%


----------



## dsceviour

GFS just went north on us :/


----------



## DDD

GFS is farther south as well.  The comma head of the storm brings some nice snows to the NW side of the state and cast snow showers all across the state on Saturday.

Today is Tuesday.  If things keep trending colder and south... well... who knows.

I think the models will settle down tomorrow and really lock in.  I am not going to stay up for the EURO.  If things have trended even farther south tomorrow, I will stay up tomorrow night for the EURO.


----------



## JewelsTurn

Thanks!!


----------



## DDD

dsceviour said:


> GFS just went north on us :/



While it is north of us, it is farther south than the 18Z run so your information is not correct.

It's been North of us forever, but the center of the low pressure is 50 miles farther south than 6 hours ago.  Please don't post stuff like this unless you are 100% sure of what you are talking about.

EDIT:  It is about 100 miles farther south than the 18Z run.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Thanks DDD! We are fired up in this house!


----------



## DDD

Here is the snow on the back side of the comma head on Saturday according to the GFS.  Need the trend to keep being our friend.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> While it is north of us, it is farther south than the 18Z run so your information is not correct.
> 
> It's been North of us forever, but the center of the low pressure is 50 miles farther south than 6 hours ago.  Please don't post stuff like this unless you are 100% sure of what you are talking about.
> 
> *EDIT:  It is about 100 miles farther south than the 18Z run. *


Yahtzee 

Exactly what we need.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Yahtzee
> 
> Exactly what we need.



What we need is the EURO to make that 100 mile south jog.  If it does that, well... I won't get anything done at work tomorrow.


----------



## malak05

I'm hanging in for euro tonight it's dragged me in


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> What we need is the EURO to make that 100 mile south jog.  If it does that, well... I won't get anything done at work tomorrow.


Lol....hopefully that happens


malak05 said:


> I'm hanging in for euro tonight it's dragged me in


Post up what's going on with it, please


----------



## DDD

malak05 said:


> I'm hanging in for euro tonight it's dragged me in



If you would please give it in reference to the 12Z EURO.  I am expecting it to not move too far south off of what it did at 12Z.  I sorta think it's gone as far south as it will go.  If it jogs further south, that would be shocking.

One tell tell sign will be the placement of the HPS up to the North.   If it is farther south, it will shove the energy farther south.


----------



## Mountainbuck

What time does it run ?


----------



## Toddcosper

DDD said:


> What we need is the EURO to make that 100 mile south jog.  If it does that, well... I won't get anything done at work tomorrow.



If the EURO jogs 100 miles south tonight or tomorrow. I am going to get a coffee IV set up - It will be a fun 72-84 hour period for those of us who love winter weather.... 

I'm a 4th generation Floridian Native who adopted North GA as home. I get so excited over snow I embarrass my kids HAHA


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> What time does it run ?



Around 12:30 our time.

Good night.  

Malak don't blow it!


----------



## DDD

Lastly, for what it is worth, the NAVGEM is showing a Miller A.  That is a NAVY model... things that make you go hmmm...

Gotta go to bed....


----------



## Mountainbuck

Night


----------



## smokey30725

Rest well DDD. Sounds like you're gonna need it! Stay safe everyone if you have to drive in this tomorrow.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Lastly, for what it is worth, the NAVGEM is showing a Miller A.  That is a NAVY model... things that make you go hmmm...
> 
> Gotta go to bed....



Looks like this run of the EURO is a twin to the NAVGEM.


----------



## malak05

Well the Euro definitely just dropped the Miller B solution for the most part. It's continued it's southward track the Low was down to Baton Rouge might not be as big of a jump as last run but very similar to Navgem...now here's the kicker it then instead of chugging to NE like a good Miller B it does the due east move and LP passes thru south Georgia before turning up coast...

This creates a strong deformation band of snow from west to east across central and north Georgia and sizeable snowfall totals... haven't got ensembles yet but with this solution I bet the Atlanta mean average is 2 inches... this is so close to big event here with all the models going toward Euro and even GFS is giving ground


----------



## malak05

Borrowed this Euro bell snow totals map for Euro
Confluence in NE was stronger bringing it further south and not out of realm that further runs might tick it Lil further south...

Key points
1. This system has always been a strong system thru all the model runs and that's not letting up
2. This is not 5 or 7 days out this is 3 days from now and is trending toward general model agreement and consistency if GFS continues to buckle tomorrow...Buy a helmet and a sled haha
3. This is a dynamic system and it could really surprise us!


----------



## weezzey

Thanks malak


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's an example of the level of accuracy in forecasting due to incessant disagreement among ensembles this winter.


----------



## GA DAWG

Nothing yet and 25. I dont think anything is happening today.


----------



## Priest

GA DAWG said:


> Nothing yet and 25. I dont think anything is happening today.



Well...not yet. They've been saying forever it was an event during the day, not overnight or early morning. The moisture has to get here


----------



## RinggoldGa

Looks good for Friday.  But what about today?  Still looking icy?


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's an example of the level of accuracy in forecasting due to incessant disagreement among ensembles this winter.



and the Mexican has returned!


----------



## malak05

The moisture back in MS is looking pretty robust back in MS much like the GFS solution last night 

1. Keep a eye on moisture to see if expands or weakens
2. Keep a eye on Temps what it is now with cloud cover should remain same for awhile then cooling for onset of stuff falling get will take place dropping Temps some more before warming up 

I still think this is a sneaky event like 2010 and 2014 where traffic conditions and travel is going be bad for areas of North metro and generally pretty wintery snow and ice for Cave Spring GA north and east from there


----------



## jbird1

Forsyth County Schools rolling the dice...


----------



## todd03blown

jbird1 said:


> Forsyth County Schools rolling the dice...



Same with Cherokee. I am going to guess and say, they get out early today. Especially looking at the radar and seeing more moisture out there...


----------



## smokey30725

28 degrees and very still here in Flintstone. Feels like the calm before the storm.


----------



## jcountry

Better be careful if you are traveling to the Carolinas......

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

Probably will be a lot of ice (and a good bit of snow) up there.


----------



## JonathanG2013

jbird1 said:


> Forsyth County Schools rolling the dice...




My wife works at Silver City Elementary School in Forsyth County. I hope this is not a repeat of 2 years ago.


----------



## jbird1

JonathanG2013 said:


> My wife works at Silver City Elementary School in Forsyth County. I hope this is not a repeat of 2 years ago.



Just put 2 on a bus headed there...I'm kind of regretting it.  I made the executive decision to keep them home 2 years ago which turned out to be the right one...we'll see


----------



## shakey gizzard

Putin the 4wheeler in the back of the truck! Uber atv! ONE CALL ,DOES IT ALL!


----------



## PappyHoel

JonathanG2013 said:


> My wife works at Silver City Elementary School in Forsyth County. I hope this is not a repeat of 2 years ago.



I'm two miles as th crow flies in Dawson.  Schools are closed and we are generally right on the line of snow vs rain vs ice


----------



## hmaddox

DDD just posted on Twitter:  Todays event is strictly for the very northern half of the state temperatures will be too warm in the metro Atlanta area do you have any ice


----------



## smokey30725

Starting to see sleet and snow mixture here in Flintstone. My wife went on to work in Chattanooga. I told her I will come get her if it's bad when she gets out. Got the Z71 gassed up and sandbags in the bed along with two 5 gallon cans of gas.


----------



## Mountainbuck

27.8 in chatsworth


----------



## RinggoldGa

Light sleet in Catoosa County just south of Ringgold already.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I don't think Cherokee county is going to get much. I think it says freezing rain from 12-2


----------



## Keebs

malak05 said:


> The moisture back in MS is looking pretty robust back in MS much like the GFS solution last night
> 
> 1. Keep a eye on moisture to see if expands or weakens
> 2. Keep a eye on Temps what it is now with cloud cover should remain same for awhile then cooling for onset of stuff falling get will take place dropping Temps some more before warming up
> 
> I still think this is a sneaky event like 2010 and 2014 where traffic conditions and travel is going be bad for areas of North metro and generally pretty wintery snow and ice for Cave Spring GA north and east from there



Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Y'all do realize that this was never forecast to be a huge event, right?  Schools closed because it's been cold for several days, so anything that does fall will cause roads to become treacherous immediately.  All it takes it .01" (that's one one hundredth of an inch) of freezing rain to cause major problems on roads.  If you want the big snow, pray that the weekend storm drops south, but remember that today was never supposed to be a major thumping putting us all in a winter wonderland.
Also, this is a public forum with the title being "Winter Weather Thread" so I'm fairly confident that anyone can post updates on what the models are saying, not just DDD.  We all love DDD and have from the beginning, but when someone is sharing useful and relevant information, don't tell them not to post.
Rant over.


----------



## nickel back

Keebs said:


> Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.



your behind,you need to go back a page or 2

see post 469 472......


----------



## parisinthe20s

DDD did give him the credentials to post.
And that's not very nice. I'd welcome anyone whose half knowledgeable about the weather.


----------



## erniesp

Keebs said:


> Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.



Uhmmm. This is a wide open thread. Nobody needs permission to post.


----------



## Matt.M

DDD gave Malak05 his blessing.  You need to read more.



malak05 said:


> I'm hanging in for euro tonight it's dragged me in





DDD said:


> If you would please give it in reference to the 12Z EURO.  I am expecting it to not move too far south off of what it did at 12Z.  I sorta think it's gone as far south as it will go.  If it jogs further south, that would be shocking.
> 
> One tell tell sign will be the placement of the HPS up to the North.   If it is farther south, it will shove the energy farther south.






Keebs said:


> Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.


----------



## DDD

Keebs said:


> Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.



Keebs, if you look I asked him to keep the board updated on the EURO run last night because I was not staying up for it.  The information he posted is accurate.  Give the man a little grace.  

That said, this thread is going to blow it's lid today if the trends keep up.

I am going to update my blog and a post on here.

Buckle up boys and girls... if the EURO is right it's going to be icy and then snowy.


----------



## DDD

Ya'll give Keebs a break too... She's with my security detail.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Keebs, if you look I asked him to keep the board updated on the EURO run last night because I was not staying up for it.  The information he posted is accurate.  Give the man a little grace.
> 
> That said, this thread is going to blow it's lid today if the trends keep up.
> 
> I am going to update my blog and a post on here.
> 
> Buckle up boys and girls... if the EURO is right it's going to be icy and then snowy.



 EURO still digging? how about the GFS is it still on crack rock


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> Ya'll give Keebs a break too... She's with my security detail.


 so much for following instructions.............. 
And I apologize to any & all...........


----------



## nickel back

There is times DDD is just to busy, so, thanks for keeping us updated malak05....


----------



## nickel back

Keebs said:


> so much for following instructions..............
> And I apologize to any & all...........



 no go stand in the corner .....


----------



## malak05

Been a member posting and chatting since 2013 no biggie on misunderstanding... I just try and fill in the Gaps and talk about the weather.


----------



## DDD

Keebs said:


> so much for following instructions..............
> And I apologize to any & all...........



Don't apologize.  It's all good.  Keep 'em straight.


----------



## shakey gizzard

I'm requesting an all snow event IMBY!


----------



## DDD

Wade Chandler said:


> Y'all do realize that this was never forecast to be a huge event, right?  Schools closed because it's been cold for several days, so anything that does fall will cause roads to become treacherous immediately.  All it takes it .01" (that's one one hundredth of an inch) of freezing rain to cause major problems on roads.  If you want the big snow, pray that the weekend storm drops south, but remember that today was never supposed to be a major thumping putting us all in a winter wonderland.
> Also, this is a public forum with the title being "Winter Weather Thread" so I'm fairly confident that anyone can post updates on what the models are saying, not just DDD.  We all love DDD and have from the beginning, but when someone is sharing useful and relevant information, don't tell them not to post.
> Rant over.



Wade, you on the mountain by chance or you still in the valley?


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Ya'll give Keebs a break too... She's with my security detail.



Speaking as head of DDD's security detail, I am glad to see that the misunderstanding has been worked out. I had already loaded my bullet and was ready for action.


----------



## Keebs

nickel back said:


> no go stand in the corner .....


 make me..........


malak05 said:


> Been a member posting and chatting since 2013 no biggie on misunderstanding... I just try and fill in the Gaps and talk about the weather.





DDD said:


> Don't apologize.  It's all good.  Keep 'em straight.


I'll leave that to the mods.......... Imma stay in my driveler from now on or the duck hunting forum, maybe even the PF........


----------



## Keebs

smokey30725 said:


> Speaking as head of DDD's security detail, I am glad to see that the misunderstanding has been worked out. I had already loaded my bullet and was ready for action.


----------



## Wade Chandler

DDD said:


> Wade, you on the mountain by chance or you still in the valley?



No, I'm living and working here in Dahlonega.  Got a better chance than those down in Atlanta, but there's nowhere near as much fun weather down here in the valley as there was up on the mountain.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Chattanooga region got a little precip earlier than anticipated. Was sleet.  Bridges over the Tennessee River into downtown froze up.  The Chickamauga Dam bridge froze up.  Lots of wrecks already.  Car in front of  friend of mine did a few spins before hitting the side of the Ogliati bridge in Hwy 27.  

Did get a double rainbow at the office prior to more significant cloud cover moving in.


----------



## willbuck

With the 2nd system that will (possibly) affect our region on Friday/Saturday - what part of the day would we likely see the possibility of some type of wintry precip?  Basically is it an afternoon/evening or a evening/night.  Trying to follow the 5 P's.


----------



## DDD

The wxbell.com site has crashed so I don't have any graphics to look at.

I am going to hold off updating my blog and the update here until after the noon time run of GFS and EURO.  If I write it now, it may be behind the curve.  Hopefully the wxbell website will be back up.

I think Joe *******i crashed it on purpose because he got all of his North East followers all wound up yesterday about a big NE snow.  He thinks every snow storm should come through Pennsylvania, New York and Boston.  But the models have left him high and dry and I find it funny.  (weather humor)


----------



## smokey30725

I just let the beagles out and my deck is a solid sheet of ice. My older dog did a 360 just like an ice skater. I gave it an 8.5.


----------



## RinggoldGa

willbuck said:


> With the 2nd system that will (possibly) affect our region on Friday/Saturday - what part of the day would we likely see the possibility of some type of wintry precip?  Basically is it an afternoon/evening or a evening/night.  Trying to follow the 5 P's.



I want to say the models last night showed precip after 7pm Friday.


----------



## DDD

willbuck said:


> With the 2nd system that will (possibly) affect our region on Friday/Saturday - what part of the day would we likely see the possibility of some type of wintry precip?  Basically is it an afternoon/evening or a evening/night.  Trying to follow the 5 P's.




Great question and I will elaborate some about how this sets up.

If I take the EURO at face value it's a very, very complicated set up as far as reading out who gets what.  But being that it's 48 hours out, it's time to really start guessing at what's going to shake out.

With the Low being farther south, the ice threat that I was talking about yesterday for upstate South Carolina now shifts South Westward.  I see a scenario of a possible horrible ice storm for the typical CAD areas (even this run of the NAM has a CAD signature), switching to rain for a while and then over to all snow for everyone after the Low rotates through.  The upper level low is almost like a hurricane in that it's spinning counter clockwise.  On the Western side of the comma head it's super cold air that it's pulling down and snow rates will be crazy.  Last night's EURO crawled across the south east, if that were to verify that band of snow on the back side of the comma head would dump snow from the mountains to Macon.  If you remember yesterday I said if the thing would keep moving south it would put us closer to the comma head.  I honestly can't believe how far south it has come with it and quite honestly it may have something to do with El Nino.  May not know that until somewhere down the road.

Every time the EURO has went south the GFS and the NAM have taken some sort of step in it's direction.  

For those of you that missed it from Malak's post here was a snow map from last nights EURO.  The snow here would be mainly from the comma head with the wrap around moisture.

Again, for damage purposes, I continue to be concerned about a CAD set up on Friday with wrap around good snow on Saturday morning / afternoon.

TV mets are not going to jump on this bandwagon.  Upper Level Lows are unpredictable as they come.  They can make a TV guy look foolish either way.  Also, imagine trying to explain to the public in 5 minutes, people in these 12 counties get ice, rain and then snow, the mountains get all snow, the other counties get rain and then magic snow.


----------



## malak05

Any observations from around N. Georgia so far... seeming some convective moisture pop-up on radar before main line curious to see if anyone seen any rain or sleet?


----------



## todd03blown

DDD - After this event happens and all is said and done, what are the temps going to be Saturday afternoon, evening and Sunday?

I would assume the temps will be impacted by the snow pack, too?


----------



## DDD

The NAM is picking up what I am putting down.  This is a pretty good picture of CAD / Rain / Snow.

I am not forecasting this... I am simply showing what is modeled.


----------



## toyota4x4h

malak05 said:


> Any observations from around N. Georgia so far... seeming some convective moisture pop-up on radar before main line curious to see if anyone seen any rain or sleet?



Im in chatsworth and have had 3 pretty long ice showers. The porch is not walkable at the moment. My parents subdivision road was slick at 830 this morning.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's an example of the level of accuracy in forecasting due to incessant disagreement among ensembles this winter.






Dooooooooooooood, you nailed Jello to a tree !!!   'Bout like eatin a soup sammich !! 






ChrisLakeCountry said:


> and the Mexican has returned!





Keebs said:


> Uuuummm, sorry, but unless DDD gives you the credentials to post, we need to leave the forecasting to him.......... and Miguel when he shows up. Nothing personal.





I forecast you eating a lil bit 'o crow . .


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> The NAM is picking up what I am putting down.  This is a pretty good picture of CAD / Rain / Snow.
> 
> I am not forecasting this... I am simply showing what is modeled.




Look at that comma head coming back across like a haymaker across AL/GA


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> Any observations from around N. Georgia so far... seeming some convective moisture pop-up on radar before main line curious to see if anyone seen any rain or sleet?



Good bit of sleet this morning in Catoosa County.  Has slacked off now.  Several wrecks on I-75 in Catoosa County and across the state line in Hamilton County.  Bridges icing.


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> The NAM is picking up what I am putting down.  This is a pretty good picture of CAD / Rain / Snow.
> 
> I am not forecasting this... I am simply showing what is modeled.



So that L will track a little east then shoot down through Georgia? I took some meteorology classes in college but its been years lol.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> The NAM is picking up what I am putting down.  This is a pretty good picture of CAD / Rain / Snow.
> 
> I am not forecasting this... I am simply showing what is modeled.



I'm thinking about spending one of my 4 left but maybe I'll wait until tomorrow night.


----------



## Brian Groce

Sleet and freezing rain in Cartersville.


----------



## willbuck

DDD - So will this be similar to the snow (seems like 2009) that happened on a Sunday where we had a switch from rain to a wet snow.  That one was a CAD event that Robert predicted real early that affected people from Madison Ga to Clemson with some big pwr outages.


----------



## DDD

elfiii said:


> I'm thinking about spending one of my 4 left but maybe I'll wait until tomorrow night.



You want to wait until after the noon runs.


----------



## todd03blown

sleeting like crazy in Hickory Flat now...wow....out of now where and BOOM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> so much for following instructions..............
> And I apologize to any & all...........



I still wubs you. Y'all back off my Keebs or I'll make any chance of snow go away for two years.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> You want to wait until after the noon runs.



Mose def. I ain't askin' until I see you put lights on the billboard.


----------



## DDD

willbuck said:


> DDD - So will this be similar to the snow (seems like 2009) that happened on a Sunday where we had a switch from rain to a wet snow.  That one was a CAD event that Robert predicted real early that affected people from Madison Ga to Clemson with some big pwr outages.



Being honest, I have never seen a piece of energy dig like this one has where it is coming from.  So in theory, yes, very similar to 2009.  I am not even sure there is an analog that will line up with what is being modeled.

Katie bar the door if the EURO takes this thing another 100 miles south... but I just can't see it happening.  But who knows?


----------



## malak05

Parts of I-75 and N/S shut down near Ringgold


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

BOOM!

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 156 (63 members and 93 guests)


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I still wubs you. Y'all back off my Keebs or I'll make any chance of snow go away for two years.



Look... the band is back together!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Chattanooga region got a little precip earlier than anticipated. Was sleet.  Bridges over the Tennessee River into downtown froze up.  The Chickamauga Dam bridge froze up.  Lots of wrecks already.  Car in front of  friend of mine did a few spins before hitting the side of the Ogliati bridge in Hwy 27.
> 
> Did get a double rainbow at the office prior to more significant cloud cover moving in.



Good to know DOT spent millions to expand the fleet and be able to handle a large ice / snow event. Seems they couldn't prep one or two tiny bridges though.

OK, back out of here. This is DDD's domain.


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Being honest, I have never seen a piece of energy dig like this one has where it is coming from.  So in theory, yes, very similar to 2009.  I am not even sure there is an analog that will line up with what is being modeled.
> 
> Katie bar the door if the EURO takes this thing another 100 miles south... but I just can't see it happening.  But who knows?





If it does, what will happen?


----------



## RinggoldGa

North AND South Bound I-75 in Hamilton County TN shut down due to wrecks in both directions due to ice.  Exit 11 region.  Emergency crews on location.  This is per Facebook reports and the Chattanooga Times Free Press.


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Good to know DOT spent millions to expand the fleet and be able to handle a large ice / snow event. Seems they couldn't prep one or two tiny bridges though.
> 
> OK, back out of here. This is DDD's domain.



No stick around for a while Miguel.... Starting to feel like old times in here...


----------



## DDD

toyota4x4h said:


> So that L will track a little east then shoot down through Georgia? I took some meteorology classes in college but its been years lol.



Chilly... it will leave temps cold in it's wake and yes, add in the snow pack... or ice pack...


----------



## todd03blown

^^^ Thanks, DDD.


----------



## Crakajak

Keebs said:


> so much for following instructions..............
> And I apologize to any & all...........


I'm just glad you didn't how much imby.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Temp is climbing in N Chatsworth. 27 an hour ago now 33


----------



## turkeyhunter835

so this is going down sat night/sunday morning???


----------



## Lawdog1

Thanks DDD, Miguel and Malak05 for all you guys do.

Gonna buckle up I believe this may be a good one !!!


----------



## malak05

These lil popcorn showers popping up over NW/West Georgia are interesting not sure if all of it is truly hitting ground but if so maybe seeing some lite sleet or freezing drizzle in these spots?


----------



## smokey30725

We have climbed to 30 here in Flintstone. Things still very slick.


----------



## DDD

turkeyhunter835 said:


> so this is going down sat night/sunday morning???



No.  Friday afternoon / Saturday.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> The NAM is picking up what I am putting down.  This is a pretty good picture of CAD / Rain / Snow.
> 
> I am not forecasting this... I am simply showing what is modeled.




I would like to see that Low dig south some more


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> No.  Friday afternoon / Saturday.



Travelling to Bessemer, Alabama tomorrow night to deer hunt and returning Saturday evening. Good to go?


----------



## DDD

I see 181.  LOL... this thing is going to explode if the GFS and EURO hit one to the warning track.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Travelling to Bessemer, Alabama tomorrow night to deer hunt and returning Saturday evening. Good to go?



Just like Hotel California... 

You can check in, you just might not be able to check out.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Just like Hotel California...
> 
> You can check in, you just might not be able to check out.



You say that like it's a bad thing.....did I mention I am there to hunt?


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> You say that like it's a bad thing.....did I mention I am there to hunt?



You are good to go then!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> I see 181.  LOL... this thing is going to explode if the GFS and EURO hit one to the warning track.



What's 181?


----------



## toyota4x4h

On my radar app the rain/snow line started off in Tennessee just west of Chattanooga early this morning now its creeped south to Guntersville bama.


----------



## DDD

Nicodemus said:


> If it does, what will happen?



Great question Nic.

It would put all of I-20 northward in for one heck of a snow.  Down side is it would also put a lot of people in for a bad ice storm.

Upside is that comma head would only throw snow on the back side much, much farther south and heavier.  

I don't want to speculate too much because that is truly just wishing.

Let's see what the noon modeling brings and then freak out.


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> What's 181?



I think he was referring to the number of active viewers.


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Great question Nic.
> 
> It would put all of I-20 northward in for one heck of a snow.  Down side is it would also put a lot of people in for a bad ice storm.
> 
> Upside is that comma head would only throw snow on the back side much, much farther south and heavier.
> 
> I don't want to speculate too much because that is truly just wishing.
> 
> Let's see what the noon modeling brings and then freak out.





Here`s to snow, but no ice.


----------



## elfiii

doenightmare said:


> We may make Part III before the day is over.



Fixed it for ya' doe.


----------



## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> What's 181?



Now I see 182.  # of people on this thread.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Now I see 182.  # of people on this thread.



We're going viral, baby!


----------



## malak05

On today's event... by my naked eye the main line should be pressing into Western Georgia down to I-20 by noonish then to Atlanta by 1???


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

smokey30725 said:


> I think he was referring to the number of active viewers.




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 181 (72 members and 109 guests)


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I'll be listening for your insight on the 12:00pm runs. Like Nick said...NO ICE! I had my fill two years ago. Snow on the other hand, I'll take that precipitation type!!
Ya'll be careful in North GA today. Looks like a mess


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Now I see 182.  # of people on this thread.



Thanks, thought I missed something wx related.


----------



## DDD

Forsyth County schools are dismissing.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Forsyth County schools are dismissing.



Wonder if they served an early lunch?  Was told that if you get the kids into the building and serve lunch you can count it as a day of school and won't need to make it up.


----------



## sbfowler

First pellets of sleet just started in Snellville, 32.2 degrees on the back porch.


----------



## DDD

They have just posted a blizzard watch for Washington D.C.  

Thats how big and nasty this thing is going to be.


----------



## malak05

Dewpoints in Dallas/Smyrna are still 14 and 16 that's low...


----------



## DDD

Radar looks pretty stout right now.  If you can keep the temp at freezing in the mountains it might over perform for those areas.


----------



## parisinthe20s

A little(barely) freezing rain here in Woodstock.


----------



## NCHillbilly

White and slick here in WNC, and the main band of precip hasn't gotten here yet.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Radar looks pretty stout right now.  If you can keep the temp at freezing in the mountains it might over perform for those areas.



Lots of cloud cover today, too. Hopefully that will help keep the temps down are another degree or 2.


----------



## MariettaDawg

RinggoldGa said:


> Wonder if they served an early lunch?  Was told that if you get the kids into the building and serve lunch you can count it as a day of school and won't need to make it up.



It's not based on lunch.  It's time in school for the day - half the day.  Just depends on when they started.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Just looked outside.....


----------



## Etoncathunter

Some light icing on bridges and minor accidents in Murray county, nothing drastic yet though. Watching that 2nd wave on radar moving in now.


----------



## malak05

When mainline gets here it's gonna be Wet-Bulb vs WAA to determine overly impact for today


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

MariettaDawg said:


> It's not based on lunch.  It's time in school for the day - half the day.  Just depends on when they started.



It must vary by county.  In Union, if the buses run, it counts as a day.


----------



## DDD

GFS is running... here we go...


----------



## smokey30725

sleet coming down pretty good in Flintstone now


----------



## DDD

NE GA mountain counties... the GFS seems to think you get 3"+ today alone.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> GFS is running... here we go...



12Z saying 3 inches of snow for NW GA . . . TODAY.  Maybe this will overperform.  

Is there enough moisture for that?  I'm just looking at total precip map by 18z.

EDIT - and I see you posted about this as I was typing.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Anyone in N Ga seeing this warm up? It is now 38 on my front porch. This equals cold rain


----------



## malak05

RinggoldGa said:


> 12Z saying 3 inches of snow for NW GA . . . TODAY.  Maybe this will overperform.
> 
> Is there enough moisture for that?  I'm just looking at total precip map by 18z.
> 
> EDIT - and I see you posted about this as I was typing.



and looking verbatim the GFS is still behind the actually arrival time for this because the leading edge is now in NW corner of GA I can see it being a few hours slow actually


----------



## toyota4x4h

Mountainbuck said:


> Anyone in N Ga seeing this warm up? It is now 38 on my front porch. This equals cold rain



It has warmed up but still just 30 on my porch. Right near the old high school.


----------



## RinggoldGa

malak05 said:


> and looking verbatim the GFS is still behind the actually arrival time for this because the leading edge is now in NW corner of GA I can see it being a few hours slow actually




Freezing rain/sleet JUST started two minutes ago in Ringgold.  Heavy cloud cover.  Half rain/half sleet.


----------



## tween_the_banks

It's been bouncing between 31 and 32 in Bartow for the past hour. Rained for a bit 45 minutes ago. Nothing wintery so far.


----------



## tr21

35 deg. here between blue ridge and suches. WE GOT NOTHIN HERE !


----------



## DDD

GFS just holds serve... nothing really has changed on it's end... bring on the EURO.


----------



## blood on the ground

Heard some IP on the tin roof earlier. Brother called and had ZR on his truck in Dallas ga earlier but nothing at the moment.


----------



## mountainpass

34 here at 1800' in Pickens. I expect it to drop when moisture gets here.


----------



## blood on the ground

Still bouncing between 33 and 32 in north paulding


----------



## DDD

GFS gives us some light snow on the wrap around moisture Saturday.


----------



## smokey30725

32 here in Flintstone with rain / sleet mixture. Just heard ambulances go by on Highway 193. Hope it's not a bad wreck.


----------



## mountainpass

mountainpass said:


> 34 here at 1800' in Pickens. I expect it to drop when moisture gets here.



Dewpoint 16 with 47% humidity over in town


----------



## blood on the ground

This thing is a razors edge from a cold rain to a major ice storm..


----------



## nickel back

if you want check your current temps, Dew Point Temperature, Wet Bulb....

http://weather.uga.edu/index.php?content=gp&site=BLAIRSVI


----------



## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> GFS gives us some light snow on the wrap around moisture Saturday.



Considering how models have performed lately and that map being days out I'd say that forecast could change many times!


----------



## Mountainbuck

What!?!?


----------



## DDD

Chattanooga looks like it's getting hammered.  Anyone up that way?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Saw a report on twitter that freezing rain is hitting Cumming.


----------



## mguthrie

What's with the WC naming winter storms. Is that just for there ratings or does the national weather service name them


----------



## nickel back

blood on the ground said:


> Considering how models have performed lately and that map being days out I'd say that forecast could change many times!



yep, but from  all have read the EURO is more south than the GFS....Is this true DDD


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Chattanooga looks like it's getting hammered.  Anyone up that way?



My brother is. Yes, they are. Roads are bad all around that area.


----------



## Nicodemus

Glad I`m retired. Storm restoration crews are probably on standby with other crews headed to the storm.


----------



## elfiii

We got zero, zip, zilch, nada in beautiful downtown Suwanee.


----------



## DDD

Let me turn my attention back to this afternoon and tonight... this could get interesting in a hurry.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Smokey, what's going on in flintstone


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Chattanooga looks like it's getting hammered.  Anyone up that way?



I'm 3 miles from Chattanooga just over the border into GA.  Wintry mix coming down gangbusters for past 20 minutes.  Half sleet/half rain.  Cars in my parking lot are iced but it's just a slush currently on parking lot and roads.  Appears we are on razors edge of temp gradient.


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> yep, but from  all have read the EURO is more south than the GFS....Is this true DDD



EURO is the most south of all the models.  This is true.

Do I think it will jog a lot more?  No.  I think there will be suttle shifts south or north, but not the jog I really want to see.


----------



## elandil

friend in Bradley Co, TN, Cleveland area, said 75 both ways was shut down due to accidents at exit 25.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm 3 miles from Chattanooga just over the border into GA.  Wintry mix coming down gangbusters for past 20 minutes.  Half sleet/half rain.  Cars in my parking lot are iced but it's just a slush currently on parking lot and roads.  Appears we are on razors edge of temp gradient.



It literally may go back and forth.


----------



## blood on the ground

Wet bulb IMBY is right at 28 ....


----------



## malak05

Heavier bands moving into NW Georgia now down thru Rome, GA and some strong bands coming down 278 in Polk county in about 20 minutes... watching the returns to see what is falling or wet-bulbs and falls?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

mguthrie said:


> What's with the WC naming winter storms. Is that just for there ratings or does the national weather service name them



I think that's just TWC, but as much as it annoyed me at first it would make talking about these events easier after the fact. 

Just like with hurricanes people remember Andrew and Katrina, but if we just left it as the dates it may not be so easy. 

Naming literally every one of them is a bit much, but naming those that are true events would be okay.


----------



## malak05

Anybody near the Rome area have any insight


----------



## blood on the ground

Just had a light shower pass. Current temp 33.4


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

No snow again.  Woohoo thank goodness

And what falls on Saturday morning won't amount to squat.


----------



## smokey30725

Mountainbuck said:


> Smokey, what's going on in flintstone



It's coming down pretty good now. Mostly sleet and its starting to accumulate on the deck and the driveway.


----------



## DDD

Looking at the NAM, GFS and Canadian, most of GA is just a little to warm for snow Friday.  Except on the backside (Saturday) where we get token snow showers.  So I guess what I am saying is, as of today, our hopes hang on the EURO.  What the EURO dealt out last night, I would jump up and scream, "Check please!" given the set up and other model guidance.

If the EURO comes in north of it's solution last night, we are in for a cold rain with token flakes on the back side.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Chattanooga looks like it's getting hammered.  Anyone up that way?



It's nasty. Roads are going to be horrible at going home time. Taking the 4wd to go get my wife in a while.


----------



## Makeithappen01

Chatsworth sleet


----------



## Hornet22

Rain mixed with a lil sleet in da 30656


----------



## Crakajak

38 and no rain in the 30083


----------



## Dana Young

Sleeting in Clarkesville Ga right now


----------



## mountainpass

Very fine sleet although heavy


----------



## Mountainbuck

When is this Euro?


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> When is this Euro?



about 12:30 ish


----------



## blood on the ground

Until DDD has stuck a knife in this thing and declared it done... can we only post updates of maps and ground truth conditions? 
I say this because many of us have family that could be commuting from work and school in unsafe Conditions this afternoon/evening?


----------



## DDD

I encourage everyone to get on Facebook, go over to WXSOUTH's facebook page and wet your pants.  

Bread and Milk alarm!


----------



## JonRatliff

WxSouth just put out a fairly detailed forecast and Winter Storm alert on Facebook. Wow!

DDD - you beat me to it! :-D


----------



## DDD

blood on the ground said:


> Until DDD has stuck a knife in this thing and declared it done... can we only post updates of maps and ground truth conditions?
> I say this because many of us have family that could be commuting from work and school in unsafe Conditions this afternoon/evening?



I am not sticking a fork in today at all.  I am still thinking that from Lake Allatoona over to Gainesville is going to have to keep a watch this afternoon.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> I encourage everyone to get on Facebook, go over to WXSOUTH's facebook page and wet your pants.
> 
> Bread and Milk alarm!



Boss just called all excited bout the sleet. Said I needed to go get bread and milk.


----------



## DDD

JonRatliff said:


> WxSouth just put out a fairly detailed forecast and Winter Storm alert on Facebook. Wow!
> 
> DDD - you beat me to it! :-D



He is hugging the EURO... as am I.  It's our only shot as of this moment.


----------



## elandil

DDD said:


> I am not sticking a fork in today at all.  I am still thinking that from Lake Allatoona over to Gainesville is going to have to keep a watch this afternoon.



thats what has me worried. I gotta travel straight up 75 from Kennesaw to Adairsville to get home, and unless I can get out early that'll be around 8pm. 

Major pucker factor...


----------



## DDD

elandil said:


> thats what has me worried. I gotta travel straight up 75 from Kennesaw to Adairsville to get home, and unless I can get out early that'll be around 8pm.
> 
> Major pucker factor...



Oh me.  Oh my.

Side note, is that your Boston in your avatar?  I have one as well.  BEST.  DOG.  EVER.


----------



## keithsto

DDD said:


> I encourage everyone to get on Facebook, go over to WXSOUTH's facebook page and wet your pants.
> 
> Bread and Milk alarm!



DO NOT want all that ice!


----------



## smokey30725

Aaaah!!!!  I don't have a facebook account. Can someone copy the post and paste it here?


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Aaaah!!!!  I don't have a facebook account. Can someone copy the post and paste it here?



There are pictures to go with it... So it's not a cut and paste job.  I guess we could post the text but the pictures are worth 1000 words.


----------



## keithsto

smokey30725 said:


> Aaaah!!!!  I don't have a facebook account. Can someone copy the post and paste it here?



https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxso...erous-winter-storm-is-likely/1206688796027840

Can click link without FB account.


----------



## elandil

DDD said:


> Side note, is that your Boston in your avatar?  I have one as well.  BEST.  DOG.  EVER.



Yes, that is my Marco. And yes, yes they are!

He had just got caught being a bad boy, and those eyes...I could not pass up that picture opportunity.


----------



## GA DAWG

Little bitty fine misting type sleet and rain in cumming. Its a wash I think


----------



## smokey30725

keithsto said:


> https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxso...erous-winter-storm-is-likely/1206688796027840
> 
> Can click link without FB account.



Thanks for the link!


----------



## Matt.M

Dang-it.  Wife pulled the plug on heading to Asheville to stay at a friends house this weekend.  

Euro better trend South!!!!


----------



## DDD

For what it is worth, the GFS ensembles, (THE GEFS) has a more Southerly solution than the GFS.  This is good news.

I keep hitting refresh on the EURO models... it has not initialized yet.


----------



## DDD

Matt.M said:


> Dang-it.  Wife pulled the plug on heading to Asheville to stay at a friends house this weekend.
> 
> Euro better trend South!!!!



You would get there but you would probably be without power and no able to get home.  Seriously.

Also of note, the wind behind this system is going to be brutal.  I will see if I can find some wind maps.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> For what it is worth, the GFS ensembles, (THE GEFS) has a more Southerly solution than the GFS.  This is good news.
> 
> I keep hitting refresh on the EURO models... it has not initialized yet.



I'm making the final call tomorrow as to whether to go to Charlotte this weekend just to give all the models I can time to show something new. 

As of right now I'm 90% not going.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Today has been a dud and my radar app is showing it turning to rain back in bama headed this way. We have got an inch of sleet though I bet and Im working from home cant complain.


----------



## DDD

Wind maps show around 20-30 MPH winds here once the storm passes.  Up in Maryland the wind will be blowing 60-70MPH.

I know we envy the snow fall, but I would not envy that set up.  sheesh.


----------



## todd03blown

lots of precip has moved in to Canton. Shows freezing rain on the map. Hard to tell what it is doing outside. Temp here is 36 with 52% RH and dew point of 20.

wet bulb is 30.6.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> For what it is worth, the GFS ensembles, (THE GEFS) has a more Southerly solution than the GFS.  This is good news.
> 
> I keep hitting refresh on the EURO models... it has not initialized yet.



Yeah the ensembles had a 2 to 1 ratio of Lows on the Savannah/SC coast compared to further NE that's nothing but good stuff


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

This is intense.


----------



## Patriot44

Sleeting like crazy in Emerson.


----------



## rospaw

Ground is white, snowing good in Ellijay!

30 deg


----------



## jbird1

Moderate sleet in N Forsyth....


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

34 degrees and HUGE half dollar snowflakes coming down now.


----------



## DDD

EURO is off and running....


----------



## grizzlyblake

Heavy sleeting in Holly Springs.


----------



## todd03blown

grizzlyblake said:


> Heavy sleeting in Holly Springs.


Yep! I am in Hickory Flat and the temp is now down to 35 was at 36 before this started. A good bit of sleet, too. I would say moderate.

I hope this temp drop continues.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I'm in holly springs as well, it's been sleeting pretty consistently for the past 20 minutes.


----------



## todd03blown

206 viewers! Come on EURO, don't let us down


----------



## mark-7mag

Patriot44 said:


> Sleeting like crazy in Emerson.



Must be a "fine line" . Im 5 miles south in Acworth and it's raining


----------



## Mountainbuck

Not hitting the ground in Chatsworth


----------



## DDD

EURO out to 42 hours on my maps looks about the same as last night... hours 48-60 will tell the story.

EDIT:  Maybe a tick NORTH of the previous run but still more south than the GFS


----------



## smokey30725

It's changed over to rain here in Flintstone. Still some slush on the ground.


----------



## Sargent

DDD said:


> EURO out to 42 hours on my maps looks about the same as last night... hours 48-60 will tell the story.
> 
> EDIT:  Maybe a tick NORTH of the previous run but still more south than the GFS



Refresh key is wearing out due to anticipation.


----------



## Patriot44

All rain in Crackworth now and temp rose back up a few degrees from right after the sleet.


----------



## todd03blown

temp is now down to 34 in my place in Hickory Flat. Sleeting hard again and some big snow flakes are showing up every now and again.

Temp dropped 2 degrees in 25 minutes.

EDIT - now it is 33!!


----------



## parisinthe20s

My fox5 Weather app got rid of any snow/sleet for Woodstock today. It just shows rain now.


----------



## willbuck

Asheville NC Met is on board.   
Chris Justus, Meteorologist
1 hr ·

MAJOR ICE/SNOW STORM LIKELY:
WHEN: Thursday night through Friday night.
WHAT: Snow and ice.
WHERE: NORTHERN part of the Upstate, NE Georgia and all of Western North Carolina down to the Piedmont.
IMPACT: HIGH
The models are in agreement that a major winter storm will affect the NORTHERN part of the Upstate, NE Georgia and all of Western North Carolina down to the Piedmont Friday. Note: the rain/ice and rain/snow line will be harsh and will probably make it as far south as I-85. That line could migrate farther south but primarilly we are concerned about the NORTHERN part of the Upstate into North Carolina. Please find where you are on a map in relation to I-85. I'll keep you posted


----------



## snarlinbear

Just started light sleet in Roswell.


----------



## rolltidega

Rain/Sleet mix here in Hiram right now.


----------



## Matthew6

sleet storm in Buckhead


----------



## zworley3

We've got some decent sleet coming down here in Downtown!


----------



## PappyHoel

Leaving work early.  They are closing schools so they said go.  It's a cold rain mixed with very little sleet here in Sandy springs.


----------



## PappyHoel

My wife said its starting to dust in Dawsonville


----------



## DDD

EURO holds serve but the low is slightly stronger and temps are colder.  GREAT TREND.  COLDER!  The snow will fall on the wrap around moisture as currently modeled.  With it being colder and I will have to look at some different panels, it makes me worry EVEN MORE about the CAD areas on Friday night.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

A decent sleet is falling in Duluth at PIB and Pleasant Hill right now.


----------



## snarlinbear

In Roswell sleet has changed to light rain.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Nice snow! But man our Carolina brothers are in for a fun time. I'm jealouse


----------



## Nicodemus

Sunny, breezy, 59 degrees and climbing here in Southwest Georgia.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I'm in the one inch range


----------



## JonRatliff

Sleet in Lawrenceville


----------



## DDD

Do not take the snow map literally.  It's just what the model cranks out.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Mountainbuck said:


> Nice snow! But man our Carolina brothers are in for a fun time. I'm jealouse



"Fun?" Absolutely not, by any means. Tremendous aggravation, and probably a bunch of deaths and injuries.


----------



## dsceviour

Could be more snow than the models are showing possibly?


----------



## DDD

I am monitoring real time situations on weatherunderground.com

You can see people's weather stations and get a good idea of what is falling and what the actual temp there is.


----------



## elfiii

Finally a little sleet in beautiful downtown Suwanee. For a while I thought it was going to miss us completely.


----------



## DDD

NCHillbilly said:


> "Fun?" Absolutely not, by any means. Tremendous aggravation, and probably a bunch of deaths and injuries.



100% correct.  Up in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland points NE... it's going to be a killer.


----------



## lbzdually

NCHillbilly said:


> "Fun?" Absolutely not, by any means. Tremendous aggravation, and probably a bunch of deaths and injuries.



I cringed when he said that, because I knew you were going to hammer him.  Like clockwork.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I am monitoring real time situations on weatherunderground.com
> 
> You can see people's weather stations and get a good idea of what is falling and what the actual temp there is.


I love weatherunderground. The site or the app are both great.

We are at 32 now. Dropped from 36 once the heavy sleet has started an hour ago.


----------



## Makeithappen01

Ride from Chatsworth to Dawsonville was pretty scary. Hwy 52 from Ellijay to Amicola falls very slick


----------



## NCHillbilly

LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, livestock dies, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, and have never seen a snowflake before, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> I am monitoring real time situations on weatherunderground.com
> 
> You can see people's weather stations and get a good idea of what is falling and what the actual temp there is.



The one right near me has dropped five degrees since the precip hit about 30 minutes ago.


----------



## todd03blown

NCHillbilly said:


> LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.


I lived in upstate NY (near Oswego) for close to 10 years while in middle and high school.

I was used to 160"+ a year. Got a 2'+ snows  a good bit up there.

Of course, they are equipped to handle it. Houses are built a bit different etc. but your point is valid. These are serious situations that are about to take place in that area.


----------



## malak05

dsceviour said:


> Could be more snow than the models are showing possibly?



Yes there very well could be and Yes there could be a whole lot less.... We got plenty of more model runs between now and Friday afternoon and no concise solution at this point.

The Euro Solution creates a nice backside snow and deformation bands that come thru and that's where Georgia picks up most it's snow that Deformation band and it's ratios and location can vary greatly...If the CAD is stronger on the front side Friday the potential for a strong ICE event from NE Georgia down to Metro is a possibility as well before snow arrival so alot to take from this model run and as Triple D says Trend is our friend and you want the other models to lean toward Euro to help make a better picture of the final solution that works best for us.


----------



## PappyHoel

Exit 14 on 400 32 degrees it's dropped all the way up


----------



## Hornet22

Nicodemus said:


> Sunny, breezy, 59 degrees and climbing here in Southwest Georgia.





NCHillbilly said:


> I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality.  Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.


----------



## NCHillbilly

It is snowing again here, and is supposed to accumulate a few inches by dark. Just worrying that my wife makes it home from work this afternoon without wrecking is enough aggravation, even before I have to drive 40 miles back home through it dodging idiots in tractor-trailers and SUVs. Also, it's obvious most snow lovers have never had to drive in snow on steep, winding mountain roads.


----------



## keithsto

NCHillbilly said:


> LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, livestock dies, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, and have never seen a snowflake before, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.



Closest I have come to that was the blizzard of 93.  Those winds peeled up the roof on my uncle's chicken house like peeling the skin off an apple.  We were up there trying to hold it down with cinder blocks.  Another chicken house roof caved under the snow load.  Fashioned a scrape out of a very long pipe and a squeegee broom to pull the snow off the rest of the chicken houses and our houses.  Roofs in the south aren't built to handle that kind of snow load.  I wouldn't mind 4 inches or so of snow, but I hate the ice and high winds that tend to come with our winter storms.


----------



## lbzdually

NCHillbilly said:


> LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, livestock dies, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, and have never seen a snowflake before, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.



Who said I was a snow lover?   I just cringed because I knew you were about to ream him and he probably didn't know any better.  Slow deep breaths man, slow deep breaths.


----------



## NCHillbilly

lbzdually said:


> Who said I was a snow lover?   I just cringed because I knew you were about to ream him and he probably didn't know any better.  Slow deep breaths man, slow deep breaths.



I just assumed I was the only person on this board who doesn't wish for snow, judging from these threads.


----------



## Crakajak

37 and a steady rain in the 30083


----------



## zworley3

NCHillbilly said:


> LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, livestock dies, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, and have never seen a snowflake before, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach. Just worrying that my wife makes it home from work this afternoon without wrecking is enough aggravation, even before I drive 40 miles back home through it.



I am sure you or one of the mods will delete this and I mean no disrespect...

I am actually from WNC and I still love the snow. If you hate snow so much why come in here and CensoredCensoredCensoredCensored all over this thread? Why not move down off the mountain or somewhere tropical? 

We all get a kick out of this winter weather stuff and in my 5+ years here I have never heard you utter one positive word about our enthusiasm. 

I just dont get how someone can be so negative all the time.  


Now back to your regular programming.


----------



## elandil

NCHillbilly said:


> LBZ, Have any of y'all snow lovers ever actually experienced two feet of snow? I have more than once. It loses its charm really fast when you have to go to work in it, your barn roof or house roof collapses, trees fall on your house, old people freeze because the power is out, people get killed on the roads, livestock dies, and maybe your wife goes into labor or your parent has a heart attack and the roads are impassable. I guess after living in a snowy place all my life, I don't understand what people wish for big snows for? They are not fun in reality. I guess if you're rich, don't have to make a living, and such, and have never seen a snowflake before, maybe. Winter is the only time of year I hate and dread its approach.



Yes, been there done that. Also spent a week without power and drinkable water due to tornadoes, and lived isolated for 3 days in 89 when the oostanaula river flooded all it's banks and we had to wait on waters to go down to go anywhere. I've had the joy of listening to trees cccrrrreeeeaaakkkk, then SNAP, and praying it doesn't fall on the house because they're so top heavy with ice, and that the gas tank doesn't run low because the oven is the only heat working. Walking an icy trailer roof knocking off snow that's already caused the porch roof to warp it was so heavy.  Having to show ID to get back on my road to go home after work because of looters hitting the destroyed houses and businesses, and sitting on the top of a hill and feeling like i'm looking at an ocean because all we can see is water. 

All you can do is be as prepared as you can, and make the best of a bad situation.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Ill take 10" of snow all day long!


----------



## jbird1

Here comes the freezing rain...icicles are forming


----------



## elandil

zworley3 said:


> I am sure you or one of the mods will delete this and I mean no disrespect...
> 
> I am actually from WNC and I still love the snow. If you hate snow so much why come in here and CensoredCensoredCensoredCensored all over this thread? Why not move down off the mountain or somewhere tropical?
> 
> We all get a kick out of this winter weather stuff and in my 5+ years here I have never heard you utter one positive word about our enthusiasm.
> 
> I just dont get how someone can be so negative all the time.
> 
> 
> Now back to your regular programming.


----------



## Da Possum

NCHillbilly said:


> I just assumed I was the only person on this board who doesn't wish for snow, judging from these threads.



I hate snow


----------



## NCHillbilly

zworley3 said:


> I am sure you or one of the mods will delete this and I mean no disrespect...
> 
> I am actually from WNC and I still love the snow. If you hate snow so much why come in here and CensoredCensoredCensoredCensored all over this thread? Why not move down off the mountain or somewhere tropical?
> 
> 
> We all get a kick out of this winter weather stuff and in my 5+ years here I have never heard you utter one positive word about our enthusiasm.
> 
> I just dont get how someone can be so negative all the time.
> 
> 
> Now back to your regular programming.





			
				elandil said:
			
		

> no, you're the only one who feels the powe....need to come poop all over them. Big difference.




I could say the same that some of y'all should move to Alaska and be happy. Meanwhile, I have to get out and work in it and be responsible for the safety of others. Don't worry, I will never come back into your precious snow-lover thread and "CensoredCensoredCensoredCensored" all over your hopes for dangerous weather that causes undue hardship for thousands and that you probably don't have to get out in. I'm done now. I will not come back in your thread and disturb your elation and joy.


----------



## elfiii

zworley3 said:


> We all get a kick out of this winter weather stuff and in my 5+ years here I have never heard you utter one positive word about our enthusiasm.



No, we don't "all" get a kick out of this winter weather stuff.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Everyone has different opinions, likes and dislikes and we should respect that. That being said, I love snow, too bad all I'm getting is rain at the moment.


----------



## elandil

so lets get this back on track for those of us who want to know whats happening. 

Any updates?


----------



## Sweetwater

Deeep breath....

Kumbaya....Kuuumbaya


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> I encourage everyone to get on Facebook, go over to WXSOUTH's facebook page and wet your pants.
> 
> Bread and Milk alarm!


----------



## DDD

zworley3:


----------



## K80

elfiii said:


> No, we don't "all" get a kick out of this winter weather stuff.



I'm sure when I'm 100 years old I won't enjoy it either but in the mean time me and my kids are going to  in it...


----------



## DDD

NCHillbilly said:


> I'm done now. I will not come back in your thread and disturb your elation and joy.


Bye Felicia.


----------



## rydert

goodness........
its a warm 54 degrees in Kite and partly cloudy....y'all keep that mess up there....


----------



## lbzdually

NCHillbilly said:


> I just assumed I was the only person on this board who doesn't wish for snow, judging from these threads.



I like playing in the snow every once in a while, but I would not want to have to drive everyday in it.  I got enough of that driving through Pennsylvania when it was 18 degrees with a wet road because of salt.  After a while I noticed the road was sparkling.  Start up the  next hill and sure enough the road had re-froze and truck started spinning.  Turned what should have been a 10 hr drive home to 14-16 hours.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Gone to rain here in Duluth. Radar still shows crunchy stuff up near the house. This could be fun.


----------



## Mountainbuck

DDD are you gonna make a map Friday night?


----------



## todd03blown

I have icicles hanging off my magnolia leaves on the tree. Plus they are hanging off my shrubs, too.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I don't envi ya'll getting freezing rain right now. We had a waive of sleet pellets come through Thomson a little bit ago.


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> DDD are you gonna make a map Friday night?



Probably not until tomorrow.  I am conflicted.


----------



## DDD

I am  away on the blog as we speak... should have it posted shortly.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Probably not until tomorrow.  I am conflicted.



Dang....Not sure how to take this. I have my hopes up to 50.1% but you could be on that 49.9% side and kill all hope


----------



## Dutch

NCHillbilly said:


> I just assumed I was the only person on this board who doesn't wish for snow, judging from these threads.



Nope...I hate snow. I had all I ever wanted to experience after 2 winters in Germany. 



Currently 60* and sunny in my backyard.


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> Probably not until tomorrow.  I am conflicted.



You better paint some snow for murray county Saturday even if there isn't gonna be any!


----------



## PappyHoel

From sandy springs to dawsonville:

I came home early and drove north from exit 5 all the way on Ga 400 to the outlet malls.

It was light/moderate rain mixed with very light sleet in sandy springs.  Temp was 37 degrees.  Traffic was getting heavy but it never stopped.  The temp dropped to 35 degrees at exit 9.  The temp dropped to 33 degrees at exit 13 cumming ga.  From north Forsyth to the outlets it dropped to 31 degrees.  It was moderate rain, I never saw sleet.  The overpasses and under are starting to glaze a little.  The back roads have patches of ice, especially around the over hanging trees.  My country road near Dawson Forest wma for reference is starting to ice.  The section of road near the creek curve is all ice.  I got squirrelly around it.  There's small white areas around the trees and grass.  It's all ice pellets.  It's just spitting rain now.  

That's my nowcast


----------



## Jeff Phillips

I live just South of you Pappy, between Silver City and Matt. Sounds like it will be a fun ride from the airport around 7:30.

If I get to leave Memphis...


----------



## parisinthe20s

I guess I better move back to utah if I want snow 
All rain in Woodstock.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

PappyHoel said:


> From sandy springs to dawsonville:
> 
> I came home early and drove north from exit 5 all the way on Ga 400 to the outlet malls.
> 
> It was light/moderate rain mixed with very light sleet in sandy springs.  Temp was 37 degrees.  Traffic was getting heavy but it never stopped.  The temp dropped to 35 degrees at exit 9.  The temp dropped to 33 degrees at exit 13 cumming ga.  From north Forsyth to the outlets it dropped to 31 degrees.  It was moderate rain, I never saw sleet.  The overpasses and under are starting to glaze a little.  The back roads have patches of ice, especially around the over hanging trees.  My country road near Dawson Forest wma for reference is starting to ice.  The section of road near the creek curve is all ice.  I got squirrelly around it.  There's small white areas around the trees and grass.  It's all ice pellets.  It's just spitting rain now.
> 
> That's my nowcast



Thank you!


----------



## tree cutter 08

Got about a inch of snow. Roads were white in batesville earlier but rain and sleet now


----------



## dsceviour

DDD if the euro verified by Friday would we get out into a winter storm watch or winter weather advisory? Specifically for your area and mine as well as I'm about 15 min from you in barrow


----------



## Patriot44

It aint even snowed and people already have cabin fever like they ran out of beer and smokes.....


----------



## mammajamma

I love the snow.  After hustling and bustling around with 2 kids to football, baseball, dance, girl scouts, etc. etc. a good snow slows down life.  We get to break out the board games and enjoy a fire in the fireplace.  There are no commitments when we're locked in at home.  We get to know each other again!  Now, I'm 1/2 way to empty nesting and I miss those days!


----------



## Nicodemus

Everybody, be civil. Thanks.


----------



## DDD

Holy Honda batman... NAM is wayyyyyyyyyyy south.


----------



## parisinthe20s

That's a good sign, right? Maybe this system will surprise everyone.


----------



## Crakajak

Nicodemus said:


> Sunny, breezy, 59 degrees and climbing here in Southwest Georgia.



You might be able to go into the swamp with snow on the ground in the next week or so..


----------



## dsceviour

I feel like this thread is about to go booming!


----------



## Mountainbuck

Share your secret share it share it share !!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD

Blog is updated.  You guys and girls go check it out.


----------



## DDD

parisinthe20s said:


> That's a good sign, right? Maybe this system will surprise everyone.



Yes!  Very good sign for sure!


----------



## challer

DDD said:


> Blog is updated.  You guys and girls go check it out.



Where do we find DDD's blog?


----------



## DDD

And here is what I am VERY worried about.  

This is probably more wide spread in CAD areas than the model can recognize.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry

DDD said:


> Holy Honda batman... NAM is wayyyyyyyyyyy south.



Top Post of the season so far right there ^^^


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> And here is what I am VERY worried about.
> 
> This is probably more wide spread in CAD areas than the model can recognize.



That's gunna leave a mark! If it aint snow, I don't want it!


----------



## dsceviour

DDD do you think the NWS will issue a watch or advisory for us or do you think they'll be on the cautious side like wsb and think nothing for us? Just curious is all.


----------



## JonRatliff

challer said:


> Where do we find DDD's blog?



https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> And here is what I am VERY worried about.
> 
> This is probably more wide spread in CAD areas than the model can recognize.



Holy cow, that says 1.19 right over Charlotte. Yeah, we're definitely not going now, and I'm calling them tonight to sound the big alarm.


----------



## DDD

NWS in Atlanta is starting to see the light...



> .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
> 
> LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AS A BUSY ONE ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG
> CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY
> MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION IS IN THE FORM OF A 1002 MB LOW
> PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS FAIRLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
> NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF AND
> PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH SHOULD ALLOW
> FOR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS SOME VERY
> MEAGER VALUES OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
> FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN
> NATURE BUT ENOUGH THERE TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
> GRIDS. IT IS MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS POINT.
> 
> UPPER LOW BASICALLY TRACKS DUE EAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
> FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION BRING
> WINTER RIGHT BACK TO THE AREA IN QUICK ORDER. 850 TEMPS FALL TO
> -2C AND -3C BY 00Z SAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ON
> THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. REALLY DONT SEE THIS AS MUCH A MIX
> SITUATION. INSTEAD...WILL LIKELY JUST SEE -RAIN SHOWERS SWITCH TO
> LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES WITHOUT MUCH OF A TRANSITION. BY
> 06Z...850 TEMPS ARE BELOW ZERO OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA
> WITH BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
> CORNER. ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PRETTY
> MUCH EVERYTHING WILL STICK. BY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT FLURRIES
> WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST DOWN TO LA GRANGE
> AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS COLUMBUS.
> 
> MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
> ESPECIALLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
> MOUNTAINS. HAVE INDICATED AN INCH WITH POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2
> INCHES AT THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN THE CURRENT GRID SET. WILL NEED TO
> DETERMINE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS HOW FAR SOUTH TO GO WITH
> ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL MODEL
> RUN OR TWO.
> 
> FINALLY A BREAK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER
> SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
> LOW TRACK IS DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHERN IN ITS TRACK THAN THIS TIME
> YESTERDAY AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MIX
> PRECIP TYPE AT SOME POINT.


----------



## DDD

dsceviour said:


> DDD do you think the NWS will issue a watch or advisory for us or do you think they'll be on the cautious side like wsb and think nothing for us? Just curious is all.



Will expect something out of them tomorrow.  Read the disco above from them.


----------



## DDD

JonRatliff said:


> https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/



Thank you Jon!!  

I guess that would help right


----------



## WickedKwik

Excellent blog post, DDD. Thanks!


----------



## malak05

Yeah NAM and EURO are good to show roughly 2 inches down to ATL and points north 3 maybe even 4 inches... All things considered it's looking positive for people north of I-20 for sure this weekend


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Watching the 18Z NAM run on Coolwx. I see what your saying DDD. Could get interesting for us too!!


----------



## Hornet22

JonRatliff said:


> https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/



Thank you sir


----------



## challer

JonRatliff said:


> https://gonweatherguy.wordpress.com/



Thank you!


----------



## DDD

WickedKwik said:


> Excellent blog post, DDD. Thanks!



Many thanks!!!


----------



## PappyHoel

If that euro holds true we could see 3-4" in dawsonville.


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> Thank you Jon!!
> 
> I guess that would help right


 yep, it sure helped me!  Great "blogging"!!


----------



## DDD

Feast ye eyes on the NAM!  Some of those high totals maybe freezing rain.


----------



## Robbie101

Great read DDD. As always, preciate what you do. Always fun reading your post!!!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Ehhh I liked that other map better than had us around 5" lol


----------



## DDD

I just pulled this baby out... I may plug it in tomorrow.


----------



## dsceviour

Dig baby dig!! Hopefully the next GFS goes south!


----------



## hold em hook

Yep looks like I won't lose all my $$$ in Cherokee this weekend like I planned.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> I just pulled this baby out... I may plug it in tomorrow.



So you're saying I need to check the generator tonight to make sure it runs and lay the firewood on heavy?


----------



## GA DAWG

Left south forsyth headed north. Was 34. Right before hwy 20 it dropped to 32.Everything up here in north forsyth has ice on it. If it does not warm up. Gonna be rough tonight.


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> Feast ye eyes on the NAM!  Some of those high totals maybe freezing rain.



Do you expect any of the snow totals to be higher to the south than the NAM is showing?  The metro looks safe from the sledding masses.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> I just pulled this baby out... I may plug it in tomorrow.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Left south forsyth headed north. Was 34. Right before hwy 20 it dropped to 32.Everything up here in north forsyth has ice on it. If it does not warm up. Gonna be rough tonight.



Good thing is there is no more precip coming!  At least for now.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> I just pulled this baby out... I may plug it in tomorrow.



Ladies and gentlemen, stuff just got real.


----------



## JonRatliff

DDD said:


> Thank you Jon!!
> 
> I guess that would help right



No problem at all! I can't stand my excitement of possibly getting my boys out sledding in their first real snow! 

Keeping my fingers crossed for Dacula.


----------



## DDD

If any of you subscribe to Robert over at WxSouth, drop what you are doing and go read his latest under analytics.  

I thought I was optimistic.  Holy smokes.

Sorry I cannot copy and paste guys, Robert works hard to put that stuff together and that's how he makes a living.

Suffice to say, he thinks Atlanta and points north and East are in for a thumping of ice on the front end and higher snow totals than modeled on the back end.


----------



## todd03blown

For you DDD


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> For you DDD



I am almost all in... still a little gun shy.  Tomorrow will be the day.


----------



## Mike 65

So south of I-20 is in the clear? How far south would the Euro have to dig to reach the south side?


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> If any of you subscribe to Robert over at WxSouth, drop what you are doing and go read his latest under analytics.
> 
> I thought I was optimistic.  Holy smokes.
> 
> Sorry I cannot copy and paste guys, Robert works hard to put that stuff together and that's how he makes a living.
> 
> Suffice to say, he thinks Atlanta and points north and East are in for a thumping of ice on the front end and higher snow totals than modeled on the back end.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I am almost all in... still a little gun shy.  Tomorrow will be the day.



Hard not to go all in when Robert posts what he does....


----------



## GA DAWG

DDD you think I best go buy a new gen tomorrow before all this goes public? I got to have one anyhow but was gonna wait.


----------



## dsceviour

DDD any updates on the 18z GFS?


----------



## DDD

GFS and NAM both further south with their solutions.  

GFS snow map very similar to the EURO snow map... pretty confident and saying 1-3" for much of metro Atlanta and points North and East by Saturday noon time.


----------



## blood on the ground

Mike 65 said:


> So south of I-20 is in the clear? How far south would the Euro have to dig to reach the south side?



Only north of eye 20 gets winta weather...lol


----------



## DDD

blood on the ground said:


> Only north of eye 20 gets winta weather...lol



For now... if that thing keeps sinking south... it could be a different story Chris Simmons out of Macon seems to think the EURO is trying to throw snow that far south.  It won't take much to make that a reality.


----------



## Mike 65

blood on the ground said:


> Only north of eye 20 gets winta weather...lol



It does appear you are right. But if we hold our tongues right it might happen. It's been quite a while since we had any worth talking bout. We cancelled plans to be in gatlinburg this weekend because of not being sure of getting back Sunday.


----------



## elandil

blood on the ground said:


> Only north of eye 20 gets winta weather...lol



thats cuz we's special. and not the window licking special, the good kind..


----------



## DDD

I am going to put the weather models and posting down for a while... I will probably stay up for the GFS and EURO runs tonight.  So I will be on late tonight for sure.

Not a whole lot to talk about until then.

You can watch the TV METS try to figure out how to talk about the incoming system.  The easy thing to say is, "It's going to be a cold rain, maybe some frozen stuff for the mountains and some flurries here on Saturday."  They will ramp up their language in 24 hours if the models hold.


----------



## dsceviour

Before you go DDD do you think this could possibly turn into a significant event kinda like march of 2009 for I-20 North?


----------



## greg_n_clayton

NWS GSP is who we fall under in these parts. They beat ya to draw and pulled the trigger for Thursday night through Sunday DDD !! Time will tell !!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

greg_n_clayton said:


> NWS GSP is who we fall under in these parts. They beat ya to draw and pulled the trigger for Thursday night through Sunday DDD !! Time will tell !!



Greg, Ya'll get ready for the blizzard up yonder!


----------



## NE GA Pappy

Pappy will come up there in the Jeep, and Pappy and Greg will go 4wheelin up on Blood Mtn.


----------



## keithsto

What is the timing for the ice?  Friday night?


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> For now... if that thing keeps sinking south... it could be a different story Chris Simmons out of Macon seems to think the EURO is trying to throw snow that far south.  It won't take much to make that a reality.



What would stop it, it has been digging south on every run of the models


----------



## elandil

as long as it's after 9pm friday,  bring it on...


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

NE GA Pappy said:


> Pappy will come up there in the Jeep, and Pappy and Greg will go 4wheelin up on Blood Mtn.



That sounds like fun Pappy!! Ya'll don't get to roudy


----------



## HOOKS24

Thank you DDD, been reading the weather thread for a long time now.


----------



## PappyHoel

This thread will be fun for the next 48 hrs


----------



## elandil

just read WxSouths FB post, and he said the one word that makes me even slightly nervous.... Thundersnow....


----------



## dsceviour

Everyone go check out wx south past 2 posts on Facebook and feast your eyes! Lot of us our in his line of moderate to heavy snow risk! This is gonna be a wild ride next couple days!


----------



## PappyHoel




----------



## GA DAWG

Cold rain and just a few flurries sat.   May as well start number 3 thread for this next un.


----------



## todd03blown

This is from Robert (WX South on Facebook)

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1206888226007897:0


----------



## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> This is from Robert (WX South on Facebook)
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1206888226007897:0



Great! (sarcasm), im in that ice red area


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> Great! (sarcasm), im in that ice red area


Why we always in that ice area recken.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I'm inside the yeller


----------



## todd03blown

PappyHoel said:


> Great! (sarcasm), im in that ice red area



I am just north of the western end of the red area.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Don't like the red


----------



## Matt.M

Pretty good.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Alot of the tv mets are downplaying the chance of snow for north ga. Big surprise. I hope they're wrong.


----------



## elandil

parisinthe20s said:


> Alot of the tv mets are downplaying the chance of snow for north ga. Big surprise. I hope they're wrong.



thats good...it's when  they start calling  for it that it goes away....


----------



## deerslayer357

Planned a trip to Blairsville- headed up on Friday and have to come back to Oglethorpe county on Sunday.

Cancel trip or not?  I am leaning towards cancelling from the model runs I have seen posted and the risk of ice when going over the mountain.

Any thoughts?


----------



## jbird1

I may be wrong but I believe that ice storm risk for NE GA is for Friday evening with the moderate to heavy snow topper on Saturday.


----------



## MariettaDawg

NWS is not buying into the big totals ... just yet.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The possibility of accumulating snow returns by late Friday. Continue checking latest forecasts! #gawx pic.twitter.com/STxqMQUntt</p>— NWS Atlanta (@NWSAtlanta) January 21, 2016</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## JWT

Will it be bad in eastern Carolina toward the outer banks ? I got a hunt planned this weekend, ?


----------



## snarlinbear

I'm not a weather guru but I would expect that if you are confident on staying warm and pass shooting ducks in a gale force blizzard it will be a memorable hunt.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Haven't been in this thread much this year unfortunately , but I would say areas north of I20 should feel good for atleast a dusting and potentially up to 2 inches with the wraparound

*metro atlanta
Mountains and far N Georgia should get the goods big time


----------



## Mountainbuck

^^^^whaaaaat??? Nah!


----------



## Mountainbuck

All this hype for a dusting-2 inches!?!? Don't think so. Here's to hoping for 7-8 inches


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Mountainbuck said:


> ^^^^whaaaaat??? Nah!



I was referring mostly to metro ATL haha. Your backyard should cash in big. Much more more for the mountains


----------



## parisinthe20s

Cherokee county always gets the shaft. I hope we get at least some kind of snow event.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Milk sandwiches gonna be good


----------



## Lukikus2

snarlinbear said:


> I'm not a weather guru but I would expect that if you are confident on staying warm and pass shooting ducks in a gale force blizzard it will be a memorable hunt.



Nothing ever stopped me. Lol

Seriously. Ya'll be safe and prepared. Things change real quick like.


----------



## whitetaco02

Those of you that get snow please make sure you post lots of pics.  I will enjoy my 37 degree rain down here in Middle Stinkin' GA!!!


----------



## orrb

channel 2 is announcing the snow now, saying 1-2 inchs, guess they are finally getting on the ball.  

Hoping for some in West Ga.  Paulding County.  

Thanks again guys for keeping us in the loop.


----------



## dsceviour

DDD keeps us informed tonight when the 0z GFS runs and than the euro. Hoping for that southern track


----------



## DDD

Just dropping in to say that the NAM just came in colder but a whole lot less moisture and 50 miles farther north... I hope this is not the new trend.  A whole lot less moisture for sure... Yikes.

Would be a freezing rain nightmare for a decent amount of people in GA, SC and NC.


----------



## parisinthe20s

It figures. Just when we're about to finally get snow it falls apart. Typical.


----------



## DDD

parisinthe20s said:


> It figures. Just when we're about to finally get snow it falls apart. Typical.



It's one model run of the NAM.  Don't freak out until I do.


----------



## deerslayer357

Of course the tv mets start getting on board and it disappears!  Isn't that how it always goes?  Lol


----------



## Mountainbuck

It's ok, it's ok ....


----------



## dsceviour

Crap got me all nervous now... &#55357;&#56883;&#55357;&#56883;&#55357;&#56883;


----------



## doenightmare

Stupid NAM  -this is why we can't have nice things.......


----------



## DDD

Actually the snow map looks nice.  However, I think a lot of this would be freezing rain, especially in NE GA.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I like the snow map. I just hope no one gets whooloped with freezing rain. That's not fun for anyone.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Nice


----------



## jf950y

How close have the models been with L and H pressure systems  the last few months ? And what model do you trust more at this point?  Thanks for keeping us informed of the possible weather.


----------



## Gone Fishing

JWT said:


> Will it be bad in eastern Carolina toward the outer banks ? I got a hunt planned this weekend, ?



I was wondering on that too.  I have a job in Elizabeth City NC, with a flight into Norfolk on Saturday morning and back out on Sunday.


----------



## DDD

jf950y said:


> How close have the models been with L and H pressure systems  the last few months ? And what model do you trust more at this point?  Thanks for keeping us informed of the possible weather.



On many of the Low pressure systems, the moisture has been under-done.  Many of the systems have over performed their modeling. 

I will last look at the EURO tomorrow afternoon.  After that I will start watching the HRRR and the RAP.  The EURO in many weather circles is called "the king" because it tends to lead the way.  The EURO was the first one to run that Upper Level Low south and the other models followed along.  The GFS is like the drunk uncle at Christmas.  He's your uncle and he's blood and you listen to his stories but you only believe him about 50% of the time.


----------



## DDD

Gone Fishing said:


> I was wondering on that too.  I have a job in Elizabeth City NC, with a flight into Norfolk on Saturday morning and back out on Sunday.



The Carolina Coast should be fine at this point.


----------



## Gone Fishing

DDD said:


> The Carolina Coast should be fine at this point.



And if I have learned anything all these years you da man....  I tell everyone see there's this guy on Woody's.... let me go see what he's saying....

Thank you


----------



## DDD

Gone Fishing said:


> And if I have learned anything all these years you da man....  I tell everyone see there's this guy on Woody's.... let me go see what he's saying....
> 
> Thank you



You folks have made this thing take off and go.  The following is massive now by my standards.  659 followers on Twitter, 150+ viewers at one time here at Woody's when storms roll up.

1,428 visitors to my blog.  

It's gotten crazy.


----------



## dsceviour

Well you the man DDD and you always keep us informed very well and is way better and more accurate than any local mets. Keep it up man, love the updates and hope for a lot of good news next 24 hours!


----------



## JonathanG2013

You are the man DDD. Good thing you didn't give out your cell also. People would be blowing you up on that also.


----------



## dsceviour

Opinions on the latest GFS run? To me it looked pretty bad, but than again I don't know as much as DDD


----------



## DDD

The GFS has less wrap around moisture but the CAD signature is VERY pronounced in NE GA.

WxBell maps are taking forever to come out tonight.  I will post them up when I have them.


----------



## DDD

Nice wrap around moisture in NE GA for many on Saturday.


----------



## dsceviour

Any accumulation maps from this run?


----------



## DDD

dsceviour said:


> Any accumulation maps from this run?



Yes.  However, I urge extreme caution looking at these snow maps.  This one in particular.  I believe the CAD prone areas are heavy with ICE and it's showing up as snow.

Caution urged when thinking this is truly all snow.


----------



## dsceviour

The Dacula area? Looks less from previous runs, I think. I could be wrong lol


----------



## dsceviour

Will you be staying up and posting once euro rolls out?


----------



## LoneOak

Triple D, some friends of mine have been sharing your predictions on FB for a couple years now and since I have grow to trust your outlooks a whole lot more than the local yahoos I decided to find you here.  I also hooked up with your blog and bookmarked it for future reference.

Thanks for giving us something we can trust without all the dire needs to go stock up on bread and milk unless it is really necessary.  You the Man!!!


----------



## elandil

LoneOak said:


> Triple D, some friends of mine have been sharing your predictions on FB for a couple years now and since I have grow to trust your outlooks a whole lot more than the local yahoos I decided to find you here.  I also hooked up with your blog and bookmarked it for future reference.
> 
> Thanks for giving us something we can trust without all the dire needs to go stock up on bread and milk unless it is really necessary.  You the Man!!!



Great to see you over here.


----------



## Match10Colt

elandil said:


> Great to see you over here.



Yup. I lost my original account when I broke my neck last year and lost my professional email with my server. Been here for years though.


----------



## DDD

I am up watching the EURO run.


----------



## DDD

LoneOak said:


> Triple D, some friends of mine have been sharing your predictions on FB for a couple years now and since I have grow to trust your outlooks a whole lot more than the local yahoos I decided to find you here.  I also hooked up with your blog and bookmarked it for future reference.
> 
> Thanks for giving us something we can trust without all the dire needs to go stock up on bread and milk unless it is really necessary.  You the Man!!!



Awesome!  Thanks for introducing yourself!  I do my best!


----------



## dsceviour

Man we need some good news from the euro and a southern track wouldn't hurt (;


----------



## Toddcosper

DDD said:


> I am up watching the EURO run.



You are not alone. Who can sleep at a time like this


----------



## dsceviour

Please do tell the details when available


----------



## Robbie101

dsceviour said:


> Please do tell the details when available



Patience grasshopper. He will.


----------



## DDD

EURO pretty much holds its thinking... snow amounts are just slightly less and that big swath is not down the middle of the state.  Looks more reasonable from a snow standpoint.

The CAD signature is strong... would be a damaging ice storm in the CAD areas of Georgia.

Going to bed will type more tomorrow.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> EURO pretty much holds its thinking... snow amounts are just slightly less and that big swath is not down the middle of the state.  Looks more reasonable from a snow standpoint.
> 
> The CAD signature is strong... would be a damaging ice storm in the CAD areas of Georgia.
> 
> Going to bed will type more tomorrow.



hey, lot folks on the south side of the metro ATL. likes the big swath


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> EURO pretty much holds its thinking... snow amounts are just slightly less and that big swath is not down the middle of the state.  Looks more reasonable from a snow standpoint.
> 
> The CAD signature is strong... would be a damaging ice storm in the CAD areas of Georgia.
> 
> Going to bed will type more tomorrow.



I'm seeing this as a NE GA event save for the exceptionally heavy wraparound band Robert has been warning of. If that doesn't come to pass, the NW burbs seem to be grasping at flakes,  no?


----------



## malak05

Large amounts of moisture thru central Georgia and points north the models verbatim are a tick warm which with such a dynamic strong system be just model off or overcome quickly with CAA or cooling column with the heavy rain will be no problem unlike yesterday


----------



## PappyHoel

It's too warm in Dawsonville to snow.  I predict with nowcasting that this system will tick northeast and the only people to see anything white will be rabun county.


----------



## DDD

I will make a call map soon. In my opinion serious CAD situation developing for people in the typical cad regions. 6z GFS is more south. 

I am busy at work this morning. Expect an update from me around 10-11


----------



## DDD

Also, go read wxsouth's Facebook page. You don't have to have Facebook to read it.  If someone would please post the link. Robert updated it about 15 minutes ago talking about what is not modeled and is going to happen. NGA is a big deal.


----------



## dsceviour

Do you think they put us in any warning or advisory.m? I personally do not but just wanted your thoughts


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

Woohoo

Another missed snow storm 

Bring on the rain


----------



## Mountainbuck

DDD forgive my ignorance but are you talking about what Robert is calling the deformed snow banned ? Or something like that for NGA?


----------



## Paymaster

Here ya go.

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/


----------



## nickel back

dsceviour said:


> Do you think they put us in any warning or advisory.m? I personally do not but just wanted your thoughts



you are really stuck on this warning/advisory thing


----------



## Mountainbuck

Correction: deformation snow band.


----------



## PappyHoel

Paymaster said:


> Here ya go.
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/



Looks like my nowcast guess was pretty much right?  I didn't stay at a holiday in express last night but that looks like just extreme ne Ga


----------



## todd03blown

Here is the post from Robert as well.

Good morning. Final day on preparations for what is going to be a BLOCKBUSTER Winter storm from TN, KY, WV, VA , both Carolinas, northern GA right up through NJ, MD and very near New York City.
Both GFS and European model pulled ever so slightly Southward again on all the main features, so this appears to be a very unique system, rather than a traditional Nor'easter that just rockets up the Coast.
Blocking confluent stream in the far Northeast US will keep on forcing the main low in the South to cut more east than north. This has been fooling a lot of forecasters, as each time the models "think" the low will pull into Tennessee, they recognize the strength of the Northern Stream and the storm down south is forced to redevelop and cut more eastward, across Georgia into South Carolina late Friday night.
Growing signs of that deformation backside snow band to get northern Alabama, northern Georgia overnight, where I have more snow than all models, and the Western Carolinas where sleet goes back to snow, and it will snow much of the day Saturday in the Piedmont of NC, while a blizzard rages all of Virginia, except the immediate coast.
One of the biggest concerns besides heavy snow totals and winds, will be the major icestorm in a narrow band of the Upstate , northern Midlands of SC and northeast Georgia, to the 85 corridor in part of NC. Somewhere won't have solid sleet, but mostly freezing rain, and lots of it, with massive power loss in the counties that get that icestorm.

Stay safe!


----------



## Toddcosper

DDD said:


> Also, go read wxsouth's Facebook page. You don't have to have Facebook to read it.  If someone would please post the link. Robert updated it about 15 minutes ago talking about what is not modeled and is going to happen. NGA is a big deal.



I love Robert at wxsouth and have been a subscriber for a few years - I don't question him but wowzer - he is bullish and I hope he is right (minus SO much Ice)


----------



## Mountainbuck

Do you have to be a subscriber to see his call map?


----------



## todd03blown

Mountainbuck said:


> Do you have to be a subscriber to see his call map?


The detailed one, yes.


----------



## DDD

This setup is going to have TV Mets and NWS playing catch up tomorrow. Sad that many have just become model readers rather than forecast.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> This setup is going to have TV Mets and NWS playing catch up tomorrow. Sad that many have just become model readers rather than forecast.



Yeah I agree this is a type of system that you can't fully count on model outputs for totals.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Hmmm..... CAD...... Ice........   Everybody wanting some FUN snow may get more wintry precip than they expected.  As Ray Wylie Hubbard once said, "Be careful of the things you wish for.
You might get 'em"


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> This setup is going to have TV Mets and NWS playing catch up tomorrow. Sad that many have just become model readers rather than forecast.



Agree. They are lazy and complacent. Not all are this way, of course. JMHO


----------



## malak05

I'm still hopefully that GFS swings some more south and then transfers further east might as well hope for best case right now... it wanted to last night


----------



## Jeff C.

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Hmmm..... CAD...... Ice........   Everybody wanting some FUN snow may get more wintry precip than they expected.  As Ray Wylie Hubbard once said, "Be careful of the things you wish for.
> You might get 'em"



Exactly, driving home yesterday from Dayton, OH to southside of metro ATL took 3 1/2 hours longer because of the snow. Significant snow from the time we left Dayton all the way to Knoxville made for a rather miserable ride that took much longer than usual. 

Knoxville area was pretty bad all the way to about 50 miles north of it. Plenty of cars and a few trucks off the road spun out or stuck for the entire ride from Dayton to just south of Knoxville.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry

DDD said:


> Here you go.. This would be inches of snow for 10 days from now.



Not trying to take attention away from this weekend DDD but is this system still in the works for around January 28th? Sorry just looking for a little more middle Georgia love 

Thanks for all you do DDD


----------



## malak05

People will like the latest NAM run


----------



## TAP

malak05 said:


> People will like the latest NAM run



Looks like the lp is around Macon at hour 39 on the 06z NAM.  CAD looks strong.


----------



## turkeyhunter835




----------



## Robbie101

turkeyhunter835 said:


>



That's some big boxes of popcorn. Mind sharing?


----------



## parisinthe20s

I hope Cherokee co gets a little something. Wxsouth Facebook update left it in the dust.is this system supposed to be extreme north ga only?


----------



## todd03blown

parisinthe20s said:


> I hope Cherokee co gets a little something. Wxsouth Facebook update left it in the dust.is this system supposed to be extreme north ga only?



Where are you coming up with that? That is not what his status update stated.


----------



## Matthew6

todd03blown said:


> Where are you coming up with that? That is not what his status update stated.



last time i looked canton and woodstock are in north georgia


----------



## parisinthe20s

I was just going by one of the photos. I guess I was wrong.
My bad, I was looking at 1/21. That's what I Get for jumping the gun. Apologies


----------



## JonathanG2013

parisinthe20s said:


> I hope Cherokee co gets a little something. Wxsouth Facebook update left it in the dust.is this system supposed to be extreme north ga only?



What part of cherokee county are you in?  I am just north of Canton.


----------



## todd03blown

Matthew6 said:


> last time i looked canton and woodstock are in north georgia





parisinthe20s said:


> I was just going by one of the photos. I guess I was wrong.



Oh ok. I think you were looking at the current watches and warnings that he posted this morning.


----------



## DDD

GFS and NAM all with further south solutions.  My updates will be short until after lunch. Trying to actually work.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I live in holly springs


----------



## Jeff C.

The weather junkies are lining up and out the door for their fix!

All guests to the back of the line please!

 

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 129 (56 members and 73 guests)
Jeff C., ChuckW, RinggoldGa, Crakajak, todd03blown, DDD, crazyduckfan, freedog74, Matthew6, parisinthe20s, twaters, 3ringer, jarrettdavis, Tannex, DRB1313, GA Carpkiller, biggtruxx, telco guy, Lee, 1john4:4, bigdaddyga, dsceviour, jeardley, doenightmare, Robbie101, JonathanG2013, Tbrid8324, willbuck, rolltidega, Barfolomew, mbjr, snarlinbear, ripsaw, TAP, zworley3, Jillaynepeck, DCHunter, turkeyhunter835, toyota4x4h, alexschneider7, Sparkplug82, fjmcgowa, Libster112, deerhunter75, malak05, dmc308, Dustin Pate, JCASH, keithsto, carver, HuntinMaconCO, adavis, Atlsooner


----------



## Robbie101

DDD said:


> GFS and NAM all with further south solutions.  My updates will be short until after lunch. Trying to actually work.



Get it all done now. Hoping tomorrow your too busy snow casting to do any work.


----------



## todd03blown

Once DDD makes his call maps with updates, we should hit 250 active users viewing. Maybe 300 will be in the cards?


----------



## smokey30725

My dad is a property manager up in Chattanooga and was debating whether or not to have snow / ice removal crews on standby tomorrow. He is supposed to leave with me tonight to go hunting in Alabama but will have to be on site if weather comes in.


----------



## JonRatliff

todd03blown said:


> Once DDD makes his call maps with updates, we should hit 250 active users viewing. Maybe 300 will be in the cards?



Yep.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> My dad is a property manager up in Chattanooga and was debating whether or not to have snow / ice removal crews on standby tomorrow. He is supposed to leave with me tonight to go hunting in Alabama but will have to be on site if weather comes in.



According to all the models Chattanooga proper only gets maybe an inch of snow.  WxSouth, whom the Mexican and DDD say is the best at southern snow storms, says that's low and that we'll get more than that.  Won't start for us here in Chattanooga region till after sundown Friday.  All those CAD areas will start getting it before sun up Friday. 

Both the Mexican and DDD have stated on Twitter that they would be very hesitant to disagree with WxSouth.


----------



## Mountainbuck

I would hate to be a tv met with this one.


----------



## smokey30725

Mountainbuck said:


> I would hate to be a tv met with this one.



My thoughts exactly. All the ones I saw last night and this morning were very dismissive of any threat to our area other than snow showers.


----------



## Swampslayr

Welcome to weather 101.... Here is our professor DDD! I can sound like an expert to my friends and co-workers after reading on here.  I wonder how much of an impact this storm will have on the Championship game on Sunday.


----------



## nickel back

From WxSouth: A powerful digging impluse phases into a developing cutoff in Louisiana. This will roll eastward tomorrow through MS, AL, GA and then the Carolinas, reaching the East Coast Saturday afternoon.

sure do wish we had more cold air here south of Atl.


----------



## smokey30725

We're gonna break 1000 posts on this one, baby!


----------



## Priest

Tv Mets in Raleigh N.C. finally picked up this morning with warning people.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Didn't notice until now but looks like Chatsworth, GA is under a winter storm warning starting tomorrow morning and ending Saturday Night


----------



## Matt.M

Here is a great write up from North GA Weather with input from Robert @ WX South.  Not DDD!!!  But they do share things on Twitter together.

http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23


----------



## smokey30725

Matt.M said:


> Here is a great write up from North GA Weather with input from Robert @ WX South.  Not DDD!!!  But they do share things on Twitter together.
> 
> http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23



Reading this, it would seem that the local guys are MASSIVELY understating this system.


----------



## DDD

Go read this now. 

http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23


----------



## nickel back

smokey30725 said:


> Reading this, it would seem that the local guys are MASSIVELY understating this system.



yep, this is a copy and past from it

(3.I lean toward much heavier snow totals throughout TN, southern and central KY and northern half of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, especially more than models are showing further south)


----------



## StriperrHunterr




----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Go read this now.
> 
> http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23



lot of info in that report/blog.

also seams like a lot could change that would make a huge impact....

Good read on this system and how complex it is


----------



## malak05

Ohhh... hurry up GFS only about a hour and 20 minutes to go


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Go read this now.
> 
> http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23



That was exceptional.  

My current favorite band . . .  the Deformation Band [rimshot]


----------



## DDD

Robert is a forecaster, not a model hugger.  That's where you get a lot of differing perspective from TV and radio.


----------



## Scarion

I'm fairly new to the forum, my dad has been following DDD for a good while now and I decided I'd check it out. I've been doing my best to keep up with the post and understand the maps/models, but I'm still a little curious how this storm will affect Whitfield County, just south of the GA/TN border.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Scarion said:


> I'm fairly new to the forum, my dad has been following DDD for a good while now and I decided I'd check it out. I've been doing my best to keep up with the post and understand the maps/models, but I'm still a little curious how this storm will affect Whitfield County, just south of the GA/TN border.



Read the "Go read this now" link in DDD's post.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Seems like its all gunna come down to that 32 deg line!


----------



## Crakajak

Looks like a bunch of rain /precipitation possible in the next 36 hours


----------



## nickel back

how many seen that we may have a miller A next week......

sorry DDD just could not help it....


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> how many seen that we may have a miller A next week......
> 
> sorry DDD just could not help it....



I am trying to focus on one storm at a time. This situation and forecast is going to change all day today and into the morning. 

Also, NIC, severe storms down in extreme south GA. Hopefully Mesican will be all over that.


----------



## Garcia Mitchler

Saw the mention of the Miller A also


----------



## hmaddox

OK, will admit so new to this I don't know what CAD is, can someone explain?


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD said:


> Go read this now.
> 
> http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/winter-storm-2-january-22-23



That was a great read DDD.


----------



## DCHunter

hmaddox said:


> OK, will admit so new to this I don't know what CAD is, can someone explain?



Computer Aided Drafting


----------



## todd03blown

hmaddox said:


> OK, will admit so new to this I don't know what CAD is, can someone explain?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold-air_damming


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DCHunter said:


> Computer Aided Drafting



Not in this case. 

Cold Air Damming.


----------



## zworley3

hmaddox said:


> OK, will admit so new to this I don't know what CAD is, can someone explain?



Cold Air Damming

Edit: beat me to it!


----------



## K80

In the CAD areas, when should we expect the roads to get ugly.


----------



## RinggoldGa

hmaddox said:


> OK, will admit so new to this I don't know what CAD is, can someone explain?



Cold air piling up on the east side of the Appalachians which act like a dam.  That air then is pushed southwest by a high pressure system to the north.  It forces that cold air down the mountain chain where it pokes down into western SC/NE Ga with the point aimed at Atlanta.  

It's why at times you can see Atlanta and points NE of Atlanta get snow/freezing precip while the rest of the state has cold rain.  

AKA a cold wedge.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

How do we determine where the CAD areas will be?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Migmack said:


> How do we determine where the CAD areas will be?



There was a map sometime ysterday that was posted that either malak or DDD indicated had a good CAD signature. It had freezing precip in a wedge shape from the foothills of NC to NE GA, with rain on the east side and snow on the west/mountainous side.


----------



## RinggoldGa

The CAD area stuff supposed to start before sunrise tomorrow morning according to my uneducated analysis of the models.  

Here's a link to some CAD info. http://theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/030/index.html

 Basically it's all the areas east of Apps for a good bit running Southwest from Mid NC.  For the folks here, draw a line from Charlotte NC to Atlanta and that's the basic CAD area.  DDD or one of the other smart ones will have to expound on this basic explanation.


----------



## malak05

Migmack said:


> How do we determine where the CAD areas will be?



The CAD is generally always in the same region think of a half circle with the tip pointing toward Atlanta...

The strength of the CAD is what can vary a  very strong CAD can extend all the way down to Atlanta and past most of the time the CAD stretches NE of Gwinnett county and points north.

The stronger the CAD the further SW it strecthes and the hard & longer it is for Warm air/Moisture to push it out.


----------



## DDD

I will have 2 maps. One with Ice thoughts. One with snow.


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## hmaddox

Thanks todd03blown and malak05!


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## malak05

GFS is off and running come DIG and go EAST!!!


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## nickel back

malak05 said:


> GFS is off and running come DIG and go EAST!!!



yea that would change things up a little....


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## PappyHoel

praying for no ice


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## parisinthe20s

Tv mets are sure downplaying any chance of winter weather. I think it was fox5 that called for 40° and overcast for Saturday. I wonder when they'll change their tune.


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## StriperrHunterr

parisinthe20s said:


> Tv mets are sure downplaying any chance of winter weather. I think it was fox5 that called for 40° and overcast for Saturday. I wonder when they'll change their tune.



Shortly after it starts falling and roads become treacherous. 

That's not totally unreasonable, though, since it's equally bad to cry wolf and nothing happens. 

What they should be telling everyone, and I saw the NWS in Peachtree issue a warning like this last night, is that the situation is very dynamic and people need to be prepared for it to shift either way with little to no notice.


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## smokey30725

PappyHoel said:


> praying for no ice



same here. ice is a killer


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## GA DAWG

Not many have mentioned ice cept DDD and s couple others. Im getting worried. Prolly just go buy a dern generator already.


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## elandil

DDD said:


> I will have 2 maps. One with Ice thoughts. One with snow.



Hate to ask, but any ideas on a timeline of when this will start? I thought most was saying starting middle of the night friday/sat morn, but now wondering if we aren't gonna see more of a friday morning beginning...


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## JosephSparks

The silver lining is the timing of all of this.  Friday into Saturday is a lot better than mid-week when people's bosses force them to go into work.  Should help keep a lot of the roads.  Get some firewood, charcoal for the Big Green Egg and some deer meat and I can sit around for a least a few days.


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## DDD

elandil said:


> Hate to ask, but any ideas on a timeline of when this will start? I thought most was saying starting middle of the night friday/sat morn, but now wondering if we aren't gonna see more of a friday morning beginning...



The CAD areas could start as early as 8-10 in the morning. Gotta watch temps tonight for sure. 

Rain will change over to snow sometime after midnight Friday.


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## malak05

DDD said:


> The CAD areas could start as early as 8-10 in the morning. Gotta watch temps tonight for sure.
> 
> Rain will change over to snow sometime after midnight Friday.




That's the battle with 925 temps being warm on modeling which delay onset but they dropping if if they drop faster then the last GFS run showed snow could start a 3-4 hours earlier for Atlanta interesting to track


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## Mountainbuck

How cold is it gonna be


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## DDD

What everyone needs to keep in mind is the CAD areas and even the snow amounts are going to be razor close and 10 miles could mean the difference is all snow and all rain. 

Anyone that thinks they've got this system nailed is crazy. If you think I've got it nailed you are crazy. I'm a human and I could easily be wrong.


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## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> How cold is it gonna be



Where?  That along with precip type is all based on location and quite frankly how the LPS tracks.


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## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> What everyone needs to keep in mind is the CAD areas and even the snow amounts are going to be razor close and 10 miles could mean the difference is all snow and all rain.
> 
> Anyone that thinks they've got this system nailed is crazy. If you think I've got it nailed you are crazy. I'm a human and I could easily be wrong.



I remember a few years ago we recieved 4 inches of snow in Thomson. 8 miles down the road it didn't even stick.


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## Mountainbuck

DDD said:


> Where?  That along with precip type is all based on location and quite frankly how the LPS tracks.


Chatsworth hahaha


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## todd03blown

While we wait for DDD.

This is what Ken Cook just posted to his FB account:

HEAVY RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...WIND AND COLD COMING TO NORTH GEORGIA...

Here's my latest thinking on the developing Winter Storm. For north Ga., some light rain starting later today; some freezing light rain is possible in the NE part of the state-but a bigger problem for the upstate of S.C. And into central N.C. The rain will get heavier tonight in the NW and NE parts of the state, with amounts of 1-1.5 inches possible. Freezing rain could continue in far NE GA tonight, but again much worse in adjoining S.C. And N.C.

THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...this will start Friday afternoon into evening. Here's the situation: The air above 3 thousand feet cools rapidly below freezing early Friday afternoon, but below that to the ground, temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s. Snow falling into this warmer layer will melt, but eventually it will reach the ground. The sooner that this can happen, the more snow that will be seen, especially on grassy surfaces.

When the storm center, the low center itself, hits the N.C. Coast Friday night, it will be able to pull the cold surface air southward into Georgia, while at the same time, it still will be able to bring moisture into north GA from the Atlantic. Hence, the magic combination.

Please keep in mind that this whole upper level and surface storm has NOT come together yet. So, it is still too early to call precisely. But, SOMETHING is going to happen. Exactly how much and where is yet to be determined. One of the "knowns" that I'm working with now is that the weather system will start to move AWAY from us very quickly Saturday morning. When that happens, snow will rapidly diminish to just flurries or brief snow showers.

This is what it looks like to me right now:
1/2 to 1 inch of snow could reach southward to the Atlanta and Athens areas.
1 to 2 inches of snow could reach the Rome, Canton, Cumming, Gainesville and Toccoa areas and northward.
2-4 inches of snow or more mostly likely would be limited to the mountains.

Some people might think that this is a WAG, but it's mine, and with your indulgence, it may have to change it later. I'll have my next update late this afternoon.-kc


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## elandil

DDD said:


> The CAD areas could start as early as 8-10 in the morning. Gotta watch temps tonight for sure.
> 
> Rain will change over to snow sometime after midnight Friday.



I echo my earlier statement. After 9pm friday...Bring IT!

Alternate heat and cook source laid in.. Bread, milk, and chili fixins stocked...backup batteries charged...lets rock... 


Thanks again DDD. You are a rockstar.


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## nickel back

did that low shift 50/75 miles to the south and run colder this go around??


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## todd03blown

nickel back said:


> did that low shift 50/75 miles to the south and run colder this go around??


That is what I am reading on other WX places...Going to be interesting ....


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## GA DAWG

I have to work sunday morning at 6am. Sure it will be gone by then.


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## nickel back

todd03blown said:


> That is what I am reading on other WX places...Going to be interesting ....



me also, maybe DDD will give us an answer


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## malak05

Well the CMC (Canadian) did push the low further south and was ticker colder... at 00z Saturday morning the low is just SE from Carroll county GA... The moisture totals will be max in NE AL, Central, NW Georgia with the low there and if dynamics play out faster and conversion to rain to snow occurs in those regions before 00z well... So much to track with this


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## Dustin Pate

Looks like we will be moving to Winter Weather #III just as this baby cranks up!


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## deerslayer357

I was excited until I kept reading Athens area for ice storm-  we don't want any ice!


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## blood on the ground

I know where the Messican is ... But  what ever happened to Bigox911?

Good work 3D but you got to much pressure on you buddy! Also I see some new contributors on here that are bringing some valuable discussion to the table as well and I thank you for input!


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## toyota4x4h

malak05 said:


> Well the CMC (Canadian) did push the low further south and was ticker colder... at 00z Saturday morning the low is just SE from Carroll county GA... The moisture totals will be max in NE AL, Central, NW Georgia with the low there and if dynamics play out faster and conversion to rain to snow occurs in those regions before 00z well... So much to track with this



I like the sound of that!


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## malak05

toyota4x4h said:


> I like the sound of that!



925 temps are the main fly in the ointment pushing a warm nose from gulf up into E AL/ W Georgia 

850 temps crash fast but not the 925 which delay snowfall transition for those areas

Again this is a dynamic system and we got to believe that at some point were gonna get our bone and temps bust or crash fast in that 925 column then it's game on

On to the Euro


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## DDD

malak05 said:


> Well the CMC (Canadian) did push the low further south and was ticker colder... at 00z Saturday morning the low is just SE from Carroll county GA... The moisture totals will be max in NE AL, Central, NW Georgia with the low there and if dynamics play out faster and conversion to rain to snow occurs in those regions before 00z well... So much to track with this



Negative.

CMC loads up the NE.  That is not all snow people, that is probably a terrible amount of ICE.  I think there will be decent snow up in the extreme NE part of the state up around Rabun and White counties.  1-2" of snow locally in  the metro area, but NW GA as it looks right now could be in sort of a dry slot if you take the Canadian at face value.

I will say this again, the CAD prone areas, Athens, Gainesville, Lawrenceville and N and E are possibly looking at a MAJOR icing that the locals and our local NWS is just now starting to come around to.

Dont take any one model at face value.  The GFS, Canadian, NAM have all come south, I expect the EURO to hammer us.  Ensembles are south as well.  I am more concerned about the ICE than anything else.  Factor in the winds to power lines and trees and it could really be bad.

I am busy at work today, so I will post from my phone when I can.


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## DDD

Winter Weather III is up.  Abandon this ship.


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