# ***General Weather Discussion Thread #1 - 2016***



## Miguel Cervantes

Some of you may have realized that the weather threads for specific information have been created so folks dependent on that information don't have to filter through a ton of stuff not related to the weather. Look at the top of the Around the Campfire main page and you'll see a sub-forum called "The Met Shack" you will find our weather ramblings in there as well as the new radar pages. 

In here you can post your questions, comments etc. regarding the weather and DDD or myself, or anyone else that knows the answer for that matter, will try our best to accommodate you.


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## DDD

As you all can see, the stinking sun is out.  Unreal.

As my friend Robbie told me today, only God has the perfect weather model.

What a bust.


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> As you all can see, the stinking sun is out.  Unreal.
> 
> As my friend Robbie told me today, only God has the perfect weather model.
> 
> What a bust.



I could swear I saw a glimpse of Bluebird Clear skies a minute ago. Where's Wade Chandler at?


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## kmckinnie

What's this storm going to do that's head toward the N Fl and SWGA going to do tonite. Do u thing we will get and storm warning of any kind ?
How long before it clears out.


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## Miguel Cervantes

kmckinnie said:


> What's this storm going to do that's head toward the N Fl and SWGA going to do tonite.


 Depends on the daytime heating and progression of the front, ie how far east it makes it before sundown. 





kmckinnie said:


> Do u thing we will get and storm warning of any kind ?
> How long before it clears out.


If it is looking sketchy the NWS will definitely put out watches and warnings to alert the general public. It will be late tonight or Tuesday morning to noon before this system clears out of here.


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## smokey30725

Still cold rain and 39 here in Dalton. Just plain gloomy outside.


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I could swear I saw a glimpse of Bluebird Clear skies a minute ago. Where's Wade Chandler at?



Nah.  Blue Bird is no cloud in the sky and that's not happening.


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## StriperrHunterr

Right around freezing and hazy with humidity in the 'ford. 

Thanks for being cool with the whole two posting locations thing, guys, and sorry for any violations I may have, or most likely not, committed Mods.


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Nah.  Blue Bird is no cloud in the sky and that's not happening.


Always gotta be nit pickin... 


StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Right around freezing and hazy with humidity in the 'ford.
> 
> Thanks for being cool with the whole two posting locations thing, guys, and sorry for any violations I may have, or most likely not, committed Mods.


Hang him,,,,,,,,hang him now!!!


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## Wade Chandler

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I could swear I saw a glimpse of Bluebird Clear skies a minute ago. Where's Wade Chandler at?



You're gonna have to send me a picture of that.  Nothing but fog, clouds, and 33 degrees here.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> You're gonna have to send me a picture of that.  Nothing but fog, clouds, and 33 degrees here.



Robbie101 just sent me this pic from Monroe.


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## Wade Chandler

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Robbie101 just sent me this pic from Monroe.



Pic didn't come through, but I pulled up the visible satellite and it's crazy how there's a little patch of clear sky over that way.


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## DDD

The severe weather threat is real and seems there is already some ICE forming up in the far NE counties.


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## toyota4x4h

Cool! Whens the rain coming in this Saturday for the north ga area? Fishin tourney and the temps looks great just don't wanna be fishin in the rain all day!


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## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> The severe weather threat is real and seems there is already some ICE forming up in the far NE counties.



Drier than a bone in the 'ford. Precip wise anyway. Still kinda hazy.


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> The severe weather threat is real and seems there is already some ICE forming up in the far NE counties.



I have gotten zero accomplished today for my work. Been chasing 4 different radar sites most of the day, and making posts in 3 different locations. 

Looks like it will be a late night playing catch up with work.


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## Stonewall 2

DDD said:


> As you all can see, the stinking sun is out.  Unreal.
> 
> As my friend Robbie told me today, only God has the perfect weather model.
> 
> What a bust.



Yet we are supposed to destroy our economy and completely change our way of life because they can tell us what the weather will be doing in 30 years with certainty if we don't change our ways.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Stonewall 2 said:


> Yet we are supposed to destroy our economy and completely change our way of life because they can tell us what the weather will be doing in 30 years with certainty if we don't change our ways.



I know right?


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## AccUbonD

What happen to the sticky thread at the top that had the radars?


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## Miguel Cervantes

AccUbonD said:


> What happen to the sticky thread at the top that had the radars?



It's in the sub forum Met Shack now.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=865228


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## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> The severe weather threat is real and seems there is already some ICE forming up in the far NE counties.



Came home a little early on 400 north bound to dawsonville.  There wasn't a drip of water and when I left car said 45 degrees and it was 31 when I got home.  I did see a convoy of power trucks going south.  I assume they had them on standby and sent them home.


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## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Came home a little early on 400 north bound to dawsonville.  There wasn't a drip of water and when I left car said 45 degrees and it was 31 when I got home.  I did see a convoy of power trucks going south.  I assume they had them on standby and sent them home.


Or to prepare for severe weather damage if it occurs this afternoon.


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## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Or to prepare for severe weather damage if it occurs this afternoon.



That is true, they could have been repurposed.  There were 10 or 12 trucks.


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## doenightmare

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Or to prepare for severe weather damage if it occurs this afternoon.



Are we expecting severe weather in N Ga Miggy? The storms heading our way look kinda scary.


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## blood on the ground




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## Miguel Cervantes

doenightmare said:


> Are we expecting severe weather in N Ga Miggy? The storms heading our way look kinda scary.



Temps aren't in their favor and they are dying out as they pass Montgomery. Not to say that there won't be a boomer or two in Mid Ga tonight, but I think the worst of them are confined to SW and S Central AL and the far west panhandle of FL for now.


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


>



I'll send you a text if you need to get on the roof in yo chair. Don't worry.


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## Cowdog07

32 degrees, overcast, and wind out of the east, east of Commerce.


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## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have gotten zero accomplished today for my work. Been chasing 4 different radar sites most of the day, and making posts in 3 different locations.
> 
> Looks like it will be a late night playing catch up with work.



Yes, but we all know you and DDD are geeking out


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## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Yes, but we all know you and DDD are geeking out





I just hope everyone in these warned cell areas stays safe. A building can be replaced.


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## GA DAWG

Aint but 33 here. Is it going to drop a degree when rain hits?


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## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Aint but 33 here. Is it going to drop a degree when rain hits?



31 at my house a few miles away.


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll send you a text if you need to get on the roof in yo chair. Don't worry.



10 4 big bear! 
We have a new set up over there in the severe weather thread?


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

It was strange watching the radar rain was coming out of the Atlantic up the savanah river east into Carolina. Normally that only happens in the summer time.


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## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> 31 at my house a few miles away.


Was 36 13miles down the rd. Could be bad. Im going off truck. My dogs water bowls still had ice in em just now.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

A vertical band from savanah to Augusta


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## mattech

64° here and very windy


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> 10 4 big bear!
> We have a new set up over there in the severe weather thread?



We've got a shiny new ride all together. It's called "The Met Shack" sub-forum, where DDD and myself will be posting all of the pretty color and big words that make no sense, then we'll come in here and splain it all. 

Even got a new thread for the radar pictures n such over there.


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## GA DAWG

Aint no way these storms coming in CANT push this cold air out. Right?


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## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Aint no way these storms coming in CANT push this cold air out. Right?



That's what I was thinking.  Forecast say it will warm 12 degrees.  If not we could have a mess on our hands.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Aint no way these storms coming in CANT push this cold air out. Right?



Well,,,,,,,,,,there is an area of 0-6m shear associated with these storms that should help usher the warmer air aloft across the south ga and up through NE ga are as well in order to help deteriorate the CAD. That being said, it does not mean you will see storms all over Ga, and the dewpoints are going to inhibit precip over the northern eastern quadrant some. South Ga should actually pick up more in the way of actual rain than we will, and the risk for actually hearing a boomer or two is higher from Central Ga on southward. 

So in short, and in theory, yes it should be the end of the CAD, from a severe weather junkies point of view. I'm betting DDD has a different take on it based on his experience with these crazy winter systems though.


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## Bob Shaw

*warm and breezy in central Fla.*

In case you're interested, it was warm, mid 70's in Central Florida today. But, its raining now.


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## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We've got a shiny new ride all together. It's called "The Met Shack" sub-forum, where DDD and myself will be posting all of the pretty color and big words that make no sense, then we'll come in here and splain it all.
> 
> Even got a new thread for the radar pictures n such over there.



Will it come complete with a "copy and paste" option?


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Will it come complete with a "copy and paste" option?



Don't know about that.


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## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't know about that.



I'm sure inquiring minds want to know


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I'm sure inquiring minds want to know



I guess we'll have to wait on DDD to post in his winter thread. I thinks he's writing a novel about it.


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## GA DAWG

Its 30 here now???


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## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I guess we'll have to wait on DDD to post in his winter thread. I thinks he's writing a novel about it.



As long as his novel is titled "Yes Flintstone, the snow is a comin'" it will be worth the wait.


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> As long as his novel is titled "Yes Flintstone, the snow is a comin'" it will be worth the wait.



You might as well get on Amazon Books and look for a new kindle freebie then.


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## kmckinnie

Looks like it won't be long now for the rain in tally town. Hope I don't lose the derct network.


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## Miguel Cervantes

kmckinnie said:


> Looks like it won't be long now for the rain in tally town. Hope I don't lose the derct network.



My nephew down in Fairhope Al had one booger of a cell come through about an hour ago. Said it was hailing to be the band and tossed his full sized gas grill around like it was a webber charcoal grill.


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## kmckinnie

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My nephew down in Fairhope Al had one booger of a cell come through about an hour ago. Said it was hailing to be the band and tossed his full sized gas grill around like it was a webber charcoal grill.



I'm not worried about the grill. Don't want hail damage to house and trucks.


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## kmckinnie

Our local station has not posted warnings yet.


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## DDD

Wedge has some back amazingly.  Pretty interesting.  Buford, Braselton just to mention a few are at or below freezing the moisture is right on the door step.


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## PappyHoel

It's 30.9 here in dawsonville.  Water on the way and it's going to get interesting.


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## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> It's 30.9 here in dawsonville.  Water on the way and it's going to get interesting.


We bout to see what its gonna do. Weather rock style


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## Miguel Cervantes

I'm puttin this one here just in case folks haven't figured out where everything is yet. 

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS!

It has already caused numerous areas of damage in Troy, Goshen and Bluff Springs AL. just to name few places. Lots of trees down and power out. Expect straight line winds of 40kts or better. That is 45mph to 50 mph with isolated areas getting higher winds or the threat of bounce-n-go's. 

If it's not anchored and buttoned down, get it done. 

Y'all be safe down that way please.


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## usardog

Imby it's jumping between 29-30 with misty rain/fog.


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## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> We bout to see what its gonna do. Weather rock style



I'm about to take the trash up the drive.  I will let you know.


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## PappyHoel

It's freaking cold, lite fog mist.


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## northgeorgiasportsman

usardog said:


> Imby it's jumping between 29-30 with misty rain/fog.



Typical wedge behavior.  41 degrees up here in the mountains at 2400ft.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Folks near Columbus need to pay attention too. Part of the same line is forming a good bow with winds between 60-70kts indicated on the velocity mode radar.  This should be crossing the river any time now.


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## GA DAWG

Its even like you can see the rain on radar hitting the wedge and kinda stalling it out.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Its even like you can see the rain on radar hitting the wedge and kinda stalling it out.



The wedge isn't stalling anything out. Just hang on an hour or two.


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## shakey gizzard

Pouring rain at 33degs!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Multiple trees and power lines down just north of Enterprise AL.


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## kmckinnie

Just got the tornado warning. Til 1am in the N Fl & swga area.


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## Miguel Cervantes

kmckinnie said:


> Just got the tornado warning. Til 1am in the N Fl & swga area.



That is a watch, not a warning.


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## kmckinnie

My friend is on call tonite around Cuthbert area. Wish him well, he's with the power co there.


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## Miguel Cervantes

kmckinnie said:


> My friend is on call tonite around Cuthbert area. Wish him well, he's with the power co there.



He's fixin to get some overtime. Prayers of safe keeping for him.


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## kmckinnie

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That is a watch, not a warning.



Your right I mis read tring to inform.


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## crackerdave

Lightning in Lagrange.


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## Hornet22

28* at da Cafe'356


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## jbird1

We're glazing up pretty good here at the Forsyth-Dawson line.  The TV Mets assured me that the warm air would erode the wedge quickly.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Line just passed through Eufala Al. Peak wind gust was 52mph.


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## jbird1

Is there any way there is a flake or two mixed in??...think my eyes are playing tricks on me.


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## Miguel Cervantes

About to get noisy in Lumpkin Ga.


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## GA DAWG

jbird1 said:


> We're glazing up pretty good here at the Forsyth-Dawson line.  The TV Mets assured me that the warm air would erode the wedge quickly.


My truck is a solid sheet of ice already. Steps slick as ice  Shakey gizzard lives just Ove the hill and its 33.


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## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> My truck is a solid sheet of ice already. Steps slick as ice  Shakey gizzard lives just Ove the hill and its 33.



Crazy thing is I thought I was seeing a few flakes mixed in coming through the flood light and then checked my phone and it said snow showers currently.


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## Hornet22

A lil presipotashun at da Cafe'356, slight glaze on the surfboard


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## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> My truck is a solid sheet of ice already. Steps slick as ice  Shakey gizzard lives just Ove the hill and its 33.



We have a lite glaze but I think the temp has gone up a bit


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## rhbama3

pouring rain in Lee County.


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## snarlinbear

Roswell river ridge temp just dropped to 34 degrees with moderate rain and wet snow mix!  Maybe there is some hope.


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## jbird1

PappyHoel said:


> We have a lite glaze but I think the temp has gone up a bit



My temp went from 32 to 30 since the precip hit...my phone tells me it will go up to 34 in 4 mins..lol


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## smokey30725

Pouring a cold rain here in Flintstone. Temp is 41.


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## GA DAWG

Still freezing here and laying it out.


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## Worley

*Sleet*

Sleeting pretty hard in Braselton right now...daggum crazy weather for sure.


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## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> Still freezing here and laying it out.



Ok..I popped up to 33 on my BassPro weather station.


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## DDD

Thundering and lightning and it's 32°


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## hmaddox

Crazy weather - my my.....


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## Hornet22

Rain freezing on the patio stuff and hand rail at da pool. 26* at da Cafe'356


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## Unicoidawg

28 freezing rain in Clermont (North Hall Co)


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## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Thundering and lightning and it's 32°



Is there a DDD update for what lies beyond this week? (Please say snow in NW Georgia)


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## hmaddox

DDD - you spotted this crazy weather days ago - mix of tornadoes, freezing rain, snow to the north.  I can't remember of a time that we got all of these together....


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## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Is there a DDD update for what lies beyond this week? (Please say snow in NW Georgia)



Nope, for the short term its going to get warmer.


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## snarlinbear

Temp up to 35 with distant thunder/ lightning and moderate rain.


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## PappyHoel

I can verify the conditions on the ground in dawsonville.  It's a very hard cold cold rain.


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## Mountainbuck

Dude we wasted all this liquid


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## hancock husler

Rianing sideways in Snellville


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## parisinthe20s

Thundering loud enough to make my dogs run for cover. Weather app says light snow but all I see is pouring rain
I'm guessing it was a fluke? I didn't think there was any snow forecasted.


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## Hooked On Quack

Flooding in Washington County, looks like it will all night, not a good night to be running heavy equipment.  My operator's fighting it.


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## YankeeRedneck

Wow if this evening was snow or ice!!! Man oh Man she was just pouring fom Waleska to Hartsfield!

Hey I'm loving the met den great idea, thanks guys.....I mean shack!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Anybody got any ice left on their wedgie this morning?


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## PappyHoel

No ice at all.  In fact after all that cold rain last night the driveway was almost dry.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Where's McKinney at this morning? Wanna see how he faired down in Tallee....

Got spinny thing warnings out in Miami this morning. Whew, man what a day yesterday.


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## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Anybody got any ice left on their wedgie this morning?



Nope. We had rain last night, with lightning, that was freezing on the elevated surface of my patio set. Just wet this morning.


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## JonathanG2013

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Anybody got any ice left on their wedgie this morning?



Yes there is a little bit in my freezer.


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## DDD

Greenville, SC got punted last night for sure.


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## GA DAWG

Winter is over now. Might have a few cool snaps but its over. Right?


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## smokey30725

GA DAWG said:


> Winter is over now. Might have a few cool snaps but its over. Right?



Dang it, I'm still waiting on it to really start!!!!!!!


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## Mountainbuck




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## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Winter is over now. Might have a few cool snaps but its over. Right?



No.  All signs point to a colder than normal March.

Stay tuned to the weather page.


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## smokey30725

DDD said:


> No.  All signs point to a colder than normal March.
> 
> Stay tuned to the weather page.



DDD saves the day!


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> No.  All signs point to a colder than normal March.
> 
> Stay tuned to the weather page.



Then you're gonna be pullin double duty in the STS thread with me. That means warm fronts against cold fronts and spinny things everywhere.


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## keithsto

If it is a cold front, why is the opposite not a hot front?  Or if it must be a warm front, why is a cold front not a cool front?


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## DDD

I have updated the Met Shack thread.  Winter will not die... at least not without one more tease.


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## GA DAWG

If done saw some saying 23-26. They just cant let it go


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## smokey30725

GA DAWG said:


> If done saw some saying 23-26. They just cant let it go



We will not go quietly into that dark night..........


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## NCHillbilly

They're calling for snow here again tonight. WW advisory.


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## jbird1

DDD said:


> I have updated the Met Shack thread.  Winter will not die... at least not without one more tease.



Like the placement of that snow band.


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## StriperrHunterr

Poot in the wind, just like the last few.


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## DDD

NCHillbilly said:


> They're calling for snow here again tonight. WW advisory.



Honestly, would not be surprised to see that go to warning status.  Looks like a good thump from this clipper for the upsloping snow which is usually not handled well by any model.  If it says 4" plan on 8".  

I was a victim (of sorts) to that in Cherokee, NC back in March of 1999.  They said 1" and  10" later it finally stopped.


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## NCHillbilly

DDD said:


> Honestly, would not be surprised to see that go to warning status.  Looks like a good thump from this clipper for the upsloping snow which is usually not handled well by any model.  If it says 4" plan on 8".
> 
> I was a victim (of sorts) to that in Cherokee, NC back in March of 1999.  They said 1" and  10" later it finally stopped.



I have learned that lesson well here over the last 48 years.  I'm right tucked up against the main spine of the Smokies, and they don't listen to the models. They just stand there and suck precip out of the clouds.


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## northgeorgiasportsman

NCHillbilly said:


> I have learned that lesson well here over the last 48 years.  I'm right tucked up against the main spine of the Smokies, and they don't listen to the models. They just stand there and suck precip out of the clouds.



That's something most models, and most mets for that matter, don't take into consideration.  The mountains make their own weather sometimes.


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## NCHillbilly

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> That's something most models, and most mets for that matter, don't take into consideration.  The mountains make their own weather sometimes.



Yep. Sometimes, a couple days after the front and line of weather has passed on through and everybody else is in the clear, it's still drizzling or flurrying here. The mountains can sure whup up some good powerful pop-up afternoon thunderstorms in the spring and summer, too.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> I have learned that lesson well here over the last 48 years.  I'm right tucked up against the main spine of the Smokies, and they don't listen to the models. They just stand there and suck precip out of the clouds.



You live in the land of magic!


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## NCHillbilly

It can be sometimes, Miggy. You oughta see a sunrise from the top of Black Balsam with a dense sea of fog lying down in the valley a couple thousand feet below you.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> It can be sometimes, Miggy. You oughta see a sunrise from the top of Black Balsam with a dense sea of fog lying down in the valley a couple thousand feet below you.



I'm up for that..............when it warms up!


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## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm up for that..............when it warms up!



The rime ice adds to the effect.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> The rime ice adds to the effect.



Oh I bet it does..........


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## blood on the ground

Oh God heat and humidity are just around the corner... Skeeters, yeller jackets, AC running non-stop! I'm already ready for next winter!


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Oh God heat and humidity are just around the corner... Skeeters, yeller jackets, AC running non-stop! I'm already ready for next winter!





Oh, and I added a couple of new maps to the Met Shack.

One is suppose to be an active lightning tracker. We'll see, haven't seen it update lately.

The other is an interactive wind map. You can use your wheel to zoom in and out and mouse to move the map around.


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Oh, and I added a couple of new maps to the Met Shack.
> 
> One is suppose to be an active lightning tracker. We'll see, haven't seen it update lately.
> 
> The other is an interactive wind map. You can use your wheel to zoom in and out and mouse to move the map around.



Whatchew whoopin me for... You no I'm speaking the truth!


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## smokey30725

blood on the ground said:


> Oh God heat and humidity are just around the corner... Skeeters, yeller jackets, AC running non-stop! I'm already ready for next winter!



A few weeks from now........


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## blood on the ground

smokey30725 said:


> A few weeks from now........



No kidding! Personally I don't understand why folks like summer (here in the south) and all the dang humidity that comes along with it.


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## Miguel Cervantes

So, if you go to your User CP and scroll down to the time stamp setting and set your preference to Caracas then the GON clock is only 20 minutes off.


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## NCHillbilly

blood on the ground said:


> No kidding! Personally I don't understand why folks like summer (here in the south) and all the dang humidity that comes along with it.



Because stuff is alive and growing, fish are biting, you can go camping without getting hypothermia. You can grow a garden, wimmins wear skimpy clothes, you don't have to pay a fortune to heat your house, You don't have to drive on ice, you can cook a burger on the grill without your fingers going numb, you don't have to crank your truck up 20 minutes before you leave in the morning to thaw the ice off the windshield, and I can go on forever. Anybody who hates warm weather should live in Minnesota


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Because stuff is alive and growing, fish are biting, you can go camping without getting hypothermia. You can grow a garden, wimmins wear skimpy clothes, you don't have to pay a fortune to heat your house, You don't have to drive on ice, you can cook a burger on the grill without your fingers going numb, you don't have to crank your truck up 20 minutes before you leave in the morning to thaw the ice off the windshield, and I can go on forever. Anybody who hates warm weather should live in Minnesota



Define skimpy........


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## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Define skimpy........



No burkha.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> No burkha.


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## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> Because stuff is alive and growing, fish are biting, you can go camping without getting hypothermia. You can grow a garden, wimmins wear skimpy clothes, you don't have to pay a fortune to heat your house, You don't have to drive on ice, you can cook a burger on the grill without your fingers going numb, you don't have to crank your truck up 20 minutes before you leave in the morning to thaw the ice off the windshield, and I can go on forever. Anybody who hates warm weather should live in Minnesota



Yes, but then there's spring and summer severe weather, higher gas prices (the infamous "summer blend"), humidity, heatstroke, stinky people, folks in little to no clothing that should be wearing a poncho, mosquitos, chiggers, ticks, flies, wasps, bees, ants, Yellowjackets, copperheads, rattlers, moccasins, pop up showers that turn everything into a sauna, mowing grass, high cooling bills, sweating before, during , and after showering, etc.


----------



## PappyHoel

smokey30725 said:


> Yes, but then there's spring and summer severe weather, higher gas prices (the infamous "summer blend"), humidity, heatstroke, stinky people, folks in little to no clothing that should be wearing a poncho, mosquitos, chiggers, ticks, flies, wasps, bees, ants, Yellowjackets, copperheads, rattlers, moccasins, pop up showers that turn everything into a sauna, mowing grass, high cooling bills, sweating before, during , and after showering, etc.



You left out full daylight at 9PM.  It's a pain to get kids in bed.


----------



## NCHillbilly

smokey30725 said:


> Yes, but then there's spring and summer severe weather, higher gas prices (the infamous "summer blend"), humidity, heatstroke, stinky people, folks in little to no clothing that should be wearing a poncho, mosquitos, chiggers, ticks, flies, wasps, bees, ants, Yellowjackets, copperheads, rattlers, moccasins, pop up showers that turn everything into a sauna, mowing grass, high cooling bills, sweating before, during , and after showering, etc.



I'll take all that. Don't have A/C, and the rest I don't mind. Summer is when I get to enjoy living here in the mountains.


----------



## NCHillbilly

PappyHoel said:


> You left out full daylight at 9PM.  It's a pain to get kids in bed.



Much better being black dark from 5 PM to 7:30 AM so you can't do anything in the afternoon.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> I'll take all that. Don't have A/C, and the rest I don't mind. Summer is when I get to enjoy living here in the mountains.



We usually spend a few days at Boyd Mountain right after the kids get out of school. Weather is always cool and my son and I fish from dawn to dusk.


----------



## JonathanG2013

NCHillbilly

With you getting all the snow lately up there. What mountain are you on in NC?


----------



## Hornet22

Awrite,who done peee oad da messican off this time? I need my radars. REALLY


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Awrite,who done peee oad da messican off this time? I need my radars. REALLY



I suppose this makes you the last member on GON to know about "The Met Shack" a sub-forum of the "Around the Campfire" forum. 

Apology accepted.


----------



## JonathanG2013

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php


Hornet22 said:


> Awrite,who done peee oad da messican off this time? I need my radars. REALLY
> 
> Here is your radar.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly's getting buried in snow again, and all the snow keeps missing us here in Flintstone. Reminds me of this:


----------



## Trigabby

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I suppose this makes you the last member on GON to know about "The Met Shack" a sub-forum of the "Around the Campfire" forum.
> 
> Apology accepted.



That embedded wind page is the bomb!  Thank you, sir!!!


----------



## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> Because stuff is alive and growing, fish are biting, you can go camping without getting hypothermia. You can grow a garden, wimmins wear skimpy clothes, you don't have to pay a fortune to heat your house, You don't have to drive on ice, you can cook a burger on the grill without your fingers going numb, you don't have to crank your truck up 20 minutes before you leave in the morning to thaw the ice off the windshield, and I can go on forever. Anybody who hates warm weather should live in Minnesota



I have never experienced cold like that here in ATL... 
summer here in GA sux and is relentless! That is also when I'm spending a fortune to keep my house cool. I have a garden, we camp and fish.. just ain't playing outside when it's 98f and 100% humidity!


----------



## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly the summa time lover....


----------



## Mountainbuck

Snow on my crap app for the 25th-26th


----------



## jbird1

The rubber band effect..


----------



## blood on the ground

Trigabby that is one beautiful buck in your avatar!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Who is authorized to start Winter Weather VI thread?

We need to closely document yet another southeastern snowstorm modeled 7 days out that gives us nothing but cold rain a week later. 

Euro looking good for a week from today!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Maybe "Winter Weather VI - The Wrath of DDD". 

or "Winter Weather VI - Miggy's Revenge"


----------



## StriperrHunterr

blood on the ground said:


> NCHillbilly the summa time lover....



I request that this image be removed. I did not give written approval for my likeness to be used by anyone other than myself.


----------



## Trigabby

blood on the ground said:


> Trigabby that is one beautiful buck in your avatar!



Thank you, sir!


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Maybe "Winter Weather VI - The Wrath of DDD".


----------



## DDD

I will tell you this, when you are hammered by the EURO 7 days out... no better model I would want to tell me as much.  If the GFS was telling me this, I would be like... no way.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> I will tell you this, when you are hammered by the EURO 7 days out... no better model I would want to tell me as much.  If the GFS was telling me this, I would be like... no way.



Have you looked at the parallel Euro. It takes all the snow WAYYYY further east and leaves most all of Ga out of it.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Have you looked at the parallel Euro. It takes all the snow WAYYYY further east and leaves most all of Ga out of it.



The Para is experimental.  Not enough support to say if it's a good model yet or not.  

Can't hang our hats on any one model run.  Para or Op.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Have you looked at the parallel Euro. It takes all the snow WAYYYY further east and leaves most all of Ga out of it.



What I like is that the Ensembles support the operational.  This truly maybe the BEST chance at pure snow that we have had all year and I will even go as far to say I see us having another chance the first 10 days of March.  Long range models keep putting a big piece of cold air in here that hangs around.


----------



## DDD

Met Shack is updated by the way.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

I'd like to submit a request that whomever is adjusting the thermostat to please leave it at either winter, or spring, please. This yo-yo is getting a little old.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> What I like is that the Ensembles support the operational.  This truly maybe the BEST chance at pure snow that we have had all year and I will even go as far to say I see us having another chance the first 10 days of March.  Long range models keep putting a big piece of cold air in here that hangs around.



Sounds good . . . but I'm gun shy. 

By Friday that low will start to creep northward. By Monday the dang thing will be tracking through Chattanooga instead of the northern gulf.  

These predicted storms are like an abusive spouse and we GON'ers just keep taking them back only to be disappointed time and time again.


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I suppose this makes you the last member on GON to know about "The Met Shack" a sub-forum of the "Around the Campfire" forum.
> 
> Apology accepted.



Dadgum, dont know what happened, but when i clicked on da shack last nite, all it had was tripd's and your thread, radars didnt show up.........reckon it's got anything to do with a 20 yr old computer and dial connection?


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Met Shack is updated by the way.



Thought y'all were joking about the Met Shack.  Some kind of inside joke.  Finally saw it at the top of the page.  Nice.


----------



## Keebs

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I'd like to submit a request that whomever is adjusting the thermostat to please leave it at either winter, or spring, please. This yo-yo is getting a little old.


 I"ll second that motion!


----------



## Stonewall 2

DDD said:


> Met Shack is updated by the way.



Met Shack is awesome!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

Would be better if somehow we could subscribe to thread at Met shack. Then it would tell us it had been updated automatically.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> What I like is that the Ensembles support the operational.  This truly maybe the BEST chance at pure snow that we have had all year and I will even go as far to say I see us having another chance the first 10 days of March.  Long range models keep putting a big piece of cold air in here that hangs around.



If it starts to come together 5 days out, I am going to have the beagles dancing, along with the chocolate labs down the street and maybe the cur dog up the road. If it still looks good 48 hours out, I will put an Elsa (from the movie Frozen) costume on my old cat and find a way to dress my daughter's hamster as a snowman.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Hahahahahahhahaha


----------



## GA DAWG

Do the long range models know turkey season gonna start in march? I mean come on Models.It dont snow in turkey season.. Stop leading folks on


----------



## nickel back

when its a day out and still says snow let me know, until then the models seam to be junk and have no clue on whats going on


----------



## Buckfever 2

I agree... Fool me once shame on you, fool me three or four times and we'll...I'm just a darn fool. Thanks but no thanks


----------



## elfiii

DDD be like


----------



## GA DAWG

Was it miller A or miller B that we wanted to see for snow?


----------



## malak05

GA DAWG said:


> Was it miller A or miller B that we wanted to see for snow?



Miller A is the classic snow-bringing track and setup that brings snow to the GA/AL regions with proper block and temps


----------



## RinggoldGa

12z GFS run is starting to gee haw a bit with the Euro pointing toward possible winter weather next Wed.  As I've said before. I offer no analysis.  I'm only smart enough to see the blue on the map and nothing more.  Miggy and DDD can analyze.


----------



## jbird1

RinggoldGa said:


> 12z GFS run is starting to gee haw a bit with the Euro pointing toward possible winter weather next Wed.  As I've said before. I offer no analysis.  I'm only smart enough to see the blue on the map and nothing more.  Miggy and DDD can analyze.



Nice!..Thank You


----------



## GA DAWG

Im seeing folks saying miller A but I have no clue hahaha. Malak?  How far out has anybody actually predicted one of these anyhow? 12hrs or so


----------



## RinggoldGa

More from the 12z GFS run.
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




  This differs GREATLY from the 06z run 6hrs previously.  So it's not a trend but it's similar to the Euro.


----------



## malak05

GA DAWG said:


> Im seeing folks saying miller A but I have no clue hahaha. Malak?  How far out has anybody actually predicted one of these anyhow? 12hrs or so



Haha well This winter with no true Negative NAO has played havoc on lining up cold air with wet weather and this also affects tracks lows can take with greater chances for runners which are not ideal for GA snow.... Throwing darts blindfold so far this year


----------



## smokey30725

I'm surprised Miguel hasn't popped in yet to poo-poo all over our hopes.


----------



## Buckfever 2

smokey30725 said:


> I'm surprised Miguel hasn't popped in yet to poo-poo all over our hopes.



Tick tick tick... Wait for it.....


----------



## nickel back

well, I would like to see the low go down around the Fla panhandle.


----------



## GA DAWG

I think this next one is it. Yall can have your fun but thats it. No more aftet that. So I will pull for snow


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> I'm surprised Miguel hasn't popped in yet to poo-poo all over our hopes.



That's my job. 










Poot in the wind.


----------



## DDD

A little EURO play by play... as I wait.

On this run... she's going to be a big one... how it will end up I don't know, but what I do know is on Monday the main system is way back in over Texas but it's got so much going on in the atmosphere she's throwing moisture out in front of her all the way to Athens.  

That's all rain no snow yet... cold air is not in place yet.


----------



## DDD

This run of the EURO is going to be way to warm... let's see how it ends up...


----------



## DDD

Tons of moisture but it's all rain I believe...


----------



## DDD

Yep... forget on this run of the EURO... geeze.


----------



## jbird1

It will come back!...it must!!


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Yep... forget on this run of the EURO... geeze.



The Euro giveth, the Euro taketh away.  

But the GFS got on board.  

I'll go all Miggy and predict that we get cold rain or sunny skies.


----------



## DDD

Yep, the EURO doesn't know what to do with the LPS and neither does the GFS.  You can toss all of them at this range.  Every run will show something different.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> The Euro giveth, the Euro taketh away.
> 
> But the GFS got on board.
> 
> I'll go all Miggy and predict that we get cold rain or sunny skies.



That's easy to do.  What's hard to do is get snow in GA.  I don't trust any of the models.  They don't know what to do with the LPS, we need it to form out in the Gulf, and then ride NE, that will pull the cold down and give the track a low rid'n, Panama City to East of Savannah track.  That's what I want.


----------



## elandil

smokey30725 said:


> Yes, but then there's spring and summer severe weather, higher gas prices (the infamous "summer blend"), humidity, heatstroke, stinky people, folks in little to no clothing that should be wearing a poncho, mosquitos, chiggers, ticks, flies, wasps, bees, ants, Yellowjackets, copperheads, rattlers, moccasins, pop up showers that turn everything into a sauna, mowing grass, high cooling bills, sweating before, during , and after showering, etc.



You forgot scorpions and all the hundreds of different spiders....


----------



## nickel back

nickel back said:


> well, I would like to see the low go down around the Fla panhandle.





DDD said:


> That's easy to do.  What's hard to do is get snow in GA.  I don't trust any of the models.  They don't know what to do with the LPS, we need it to form out in the Gulf, and then ride NE, that will pull the cold down and give the track a low rid'n, Panama City to East of Savannah track.  That's what I want.




This^^^^


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

What'd I miss?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I'm surprised Miguel hasn't popped in yet to poo-poo all over our hopes.



Ohhhh, so that's what you think of me...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> That's my job.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poot in the wind.



You're a bubble biter and you know it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Oh, I got it. OK, Cold chasing precip is good for flurries or even a brief flizzard, then it's back to reality. It never really works out. 

There, is that enough poo poo for you?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Oh, and one more thing, check the February Severe Weather thread. All of this potential for some snow could come at a very high price the day before.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're a bubble biter and you know it.



I caught one last night.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Oh, I got it. OK, Cold chasing precip is good for flurries or even a brief flizzard, then it's back to reality. It never really works out.
> 
> There, is that enough poo poo for you?



that's enough poo poo to make a herd of cows jealous.


----------



## GA DAWG

I saw where a guy had posted euro maps.  I though thought that was wrong.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I saw where a guy had posted euro maps.  I though thought that was wrong.


If they are weatherbell ecmwf maps that is a big no no. The only caveat is if one of tge very few big wigs that do have permission to post WX Bell maps put them out there as part of their projections then they become public domain but still subject to that pros copyright rights. If they were posted from such a source and proper references and sources cited then you know what you are looking at, and it is not original or honest.


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If they are weatherbell ecmwf maps that is a big no no. The only caveat is if one of tge very few big wigs that do have permission to post WX Bell maps put them out there as part of their projections then they become public domain but still subject to that pros copyright rights. If they were posted from such a source and proper references and sources cited then you know what you are looking at, and it is not original or honest.



Yea, what he said.


----------



## MariettaDawg

So any idea on the weather for the race in Hampton next weekend?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Yea, what he said.



You find da maps youngun? We'uns all good now?


----------



## Matthew6

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What'd I miss?



bama won another title.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matthew6 said:


> bama won another title.



Woo Hoooo......................wait a minute.......
You been hangin out wit dat Slayver dude ain't cha?


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You find da maps youngun? We'uns all good now?



Yep, thank da Lord, I don't know what had happent

Lil backstory. Got a Unc that joined the navy back in the 60's cause he didn't want to get in no plane. Wound up as a navigator on one of the hurricane chasin planes. When I was a kid, he always cussed the weather mets on tv, (Guy Sharp) said just show me the northern hemi radar, I can figger it out from there. Guess thats why I like me da maps


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Yep, thank da Lord, I don't know what had happent
> 
> Lil backstory. Got a Unc that joined the navy back in the 60's cause he didn't want to get in no plane. Wound up as a navigator on one of the hurricane chasin planes. When I was a kid, he always cussed the weather mets on tv, (Guy Sharp) said just show me the northern hemi radar, I can figger it out from there. Guess thats why I like me da maps



Pretty cool. 
I Knew Guy and his family well. Great folk.


----------



## Matthew6

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Woo Hoooo......................wait a minute.......
> You been hangin out wit dat Slayver dude ain't cha?



i need snow


----------



## smokey30725

Matthew6 said:


> i need snow



You and me both


----------



## nickel back

MariettaDawg said:


> So any idea on the weather for the race in Hampton next weekend?



NASCAR sucks. I hope it rains or snows all weekend on race weekend in Hampton.


----------



## nickel back

Well seams as if the models are calling for all rain, that might be a good thing. They normally call for snow at first and it rains.......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> Well seams as if the models are calling for all rain, that might be a good thing. They normally call for snow at first and it rains.......



I've never had one call me. I always have to look them up and read / interpret what I think they are showing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Uggghhh. Ignore the last 12 hours of model runs. They done went full dumb dumb on us. I'm givin it another 24 before I even begin to think about looking at them again.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've never had one call me. I always have to look them up and read / interpret what I think they are showing.








Miguel Cervantes said:


> Uggghhh. Ignore the last 12 hours of model runs. They done went full dumb dumb on us. I'm givin it another 24 before I even begin to think about looking at them again.



the last 12hrs,that's all, just the last 12hrs. The models have sucked it this winter. I think they have a virus.


----------



## PappyHoel

28 in the driveway.  It will be 75-78 in the Bahamas on Saturday.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Oh, I got it. OK, Cold chasing precip is good for flurries or even a brief flizzard, then it's back to reality. It never really works out.
> 
> There, is that enough poo poo for you?



It seems to work perfectly every time here.


----------



## jf950y

nickel back said:


> the last 12hrs,that's all, just the last 12hrs. The models have sucked it this winter. I think they have a virus.



I remember people saying this last year also. Why do y'all think the models are not as accurate?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jf950y said:


> I remember people saying this last year also. Why do y'all think the models are not as accurate?



Didn't say they're not accurate. They have been fairly accurate this year, long range, and then we get close to an event they start waffling and then resolve inside of 4 or 5 days usually. 

However, this set isn't waffling, they are jumping all over the place. It's down right crazy!


----------



## jbird1

The "rubber band effect" has worn the snow lovers out this Winter, myself included.  I'm gonna stay positive and trust DDD to bring us one more good chance...to just be in the game.


----------



## shakey gizzard

I'm planting potatoes! Maybe that'll help!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> I'm planting potatoes! Maybe that'll help!



What variety?


----------



## Crakajak

This winter is like driving on 285.Everyones going the same direction ,but everybody keeps switching lanes.
DDD and Miguel have both earned a gold metal trying to figure this winter out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Grits, butter and cheddar cheese. A marriage made in heaven. Just sayin.


----------



## DDD

Crakajak said:


> This winter is like driving on 285.Everyones going the same direction ,but everybody keeps switching lanes.
> DDD and Miguel have both earned a gold metal trying to figure this winter out.



Preciate it.

I have updated the Met Shack thread.  Bring your umbrella.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Preciate it.
> 
> I have updated the Met Shack thread.  Bring your umbrella.



Now mother nature is just messing with us for her own demented pleasure.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Preciate it.
> 
> I have updated the Met Shack thread.  Bring your umbrella.



What do the multiday totals look like?


----------



## GA DAWG

So winter is over?


----------



## jbird1

Slipping back over from the Met Shack, DDD's last post begs the question of how well do the models do at predicting the movement of cold, arctic air?  With what accuracy and how far out can we determine this variable?  I know a Low can develop quickly and create a surprise.  Are air masses more predictable than precip?


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> Slipping back over from the Met Shack, DDD's last post begs the question of how well do the models do at predicting the movement of cold, arctic air?  With what accuracy and how far out can we determine this variable?  I know a Low can develop quickly and create a surprise.  Are air masses more predictable than precip?



The high pressure that will need to bring the cold is not even in place.  Where it sets up at is the key.  To answer your question, even the last system (this past Monday) the high pressure at the last minute was probably 100 miles more SW than it had previously been modeled.  It's why Greenville took such a thumping and the GFS sucked at picking up on this.

The moisture is coming.  We need the high pressure that holds the cold to get low.  

Like shawty.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> The high pressure that will need to bring the cold is not even in place.  Where it sets up at is the key.  To answer your question, even the last system (this past Monday) the high pressure at the last minute was probably 100 miles more SW than it had previously been modeled.  It's why Greenville took such a thumping and the GFS sucked at picking up on this.
> 
> The moisture is coming.  We need the high pressure that holds the cold to get low.
> 
> Like shawty.



Gotcha.  So there is no looking up in the Artic and saying this air mass is coming and will be here in two weeks type of thing.  Hence the term "herding cats" can be used in a variety of different ways when pertaining to models and weather.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> Gotcha.  So there is no looking up in the Artic and saying this air mass is coming and will be here in two weeks type of thing.  Hence the term "herding cats" can be used in a variety of different ways when pertaining to models and weather.



Now you're catching on.


----------



## smokey30725

There goes DDD again, stoking the fires in the Metshack!!!!


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> Gotcha.  So there is no looking up in the Artic and saying this air mass is coming and will be here in two weeks type of thing.  Hence the term "herding cats" can be used in a variety of different ways when pertaining to models and weather.



That or like trying to get 30, 5 years olds to sing 3 part harmony of an old Willy Nelson song.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> There goes DDD again, stoking the fires in the Metshack!!!!



We aim to please and tease.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> We aim to please and tease.



That map takes clown map to a whole new level.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> That map takes clown map to a whole new level.



They might be comin back around, but I'll save that for DDD to talk about later on. Miller Lite anyone?


----------



## Matthew6

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They might be comin back around, but I'll save that for DDD to talk about later on. Miller Lite anyone?


----------



## DDD

Miggy... how much jello you got?


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Miggy... how much jello you got?



I would like to announce the beginning of the "let's buy Miguel enough jello that he can finally succeed in nailing it to that blasted tree" fundraiser. Who's in??


----------



## Crakajak

smokey30725 said:


> I would like to announce the beginning of the "let's buy Miguel enough jello that he can finally succeed in nailing it to that blasted tree" fundraiser. Who's in??



I live close to them both. Count me in for a Jackson.


----------



## Crakajak

DDD said:


> Miggy... how much jello you got?



Frozen I hope


----------



## elfiii

smokey30725 said:


> I would like to announce the beginning of the "let's buy Miguel enough jello that he can finally succeed in nailing it to that blasted tree" fundraiser. Who's in??



I'm good for 1 case.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

elfiii said:


> I'm good for 1 case.



Count me in for a box of nails.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Miggy... how much jello you got?



I switched over to rope, remember. Herdin cats is where it's at.


----------



## GA DAWG

So is it gonna snow?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> So is it gonna snow?



Somewhere......

Morning GON weather geeks. Just posted a lot about nothing (herding cats) in the STS thread over the Met Shack. 

I have a couple of early meetings this morning and really want to give time for the EURO 12z to come out. I see feint (I mean as in a mirage feint) signs that some coagulation among models might be about to take place, but I'm not betting my $2 paycheck on it. 

Stay tuned, DDD or/and I will offer some kibbles & bits later on.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Yay end of winter!


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yay end of winter!



Stop it! Stop it right now!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> Stop it! Stop it right now!



If you want spring, buy sleds. If you want winter, what do you do? 

Praise it being gone. Winter needs reverse p-sychology, so that's what I was giving it.


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> If you want spring, buy sleds. If you want winter, what do you do?
> 
> Praise it being gone. Winter needs reverse p-sychology, so that's what I was giving it.



I figured that. I am trying reverse-reverse psychometry. I figure that if we can get mother nature riled up good, she might give us the "cold" shoulder we need.


----------



## jbird1

I gotta think we have at least one more shot of Arctic air left to roll through....just need some moisture to coincide with it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD doesn't seem to think so in his last post. And apparently someone is posting things on Facenook and upsetting him.


----------



## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> DDD doesn't seem to think so in his last post. And apparently someone is posting things on Facenook and upsetting him.



Nope.  Not upset at ALL, I promise you that.  Just having a little fun with a fraud.

When you get exposed as a fraud and you make it completely clear that you are not a forecaster or weather junkie, weather geek, no... that you are more of an *attention seeker* and have this overwhelming need to feel *"important"* so much so that you are willing to copy other people's work and claim it as your own.  Then I am going to give you the attention you deserve.

When you are that person and you get exposed for what you are, you get what you get and I could not be more pleased to see a guy who was not only copying me, but copying others as it turns out and now he's had to make his little attention corner of the world "secret" but the fool doesn't realize that 100+ members here and personal friends of mine are following him as well.    and they are like bird dogs now that the truth has come around.

Pretty shady.  A secret group about weather.  That in and of itself is funny. 

Funny to me also that he post links to everyone else who is public and knows what they are talking about.  Now why do you suppose that is?  A secret weather page on facebook where the "leader" doesn't post any of his own thoughts and sources to back up HIS thoughts... no... he just post links to other people's work.  I think it's time he disbanded the group, but knowing what I know about pride... that's not happening.

Ok, off my soap box now.


----------



## todd03blown

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> DDD doesn't seem to think so in his last post. And apparently someone is posting things on Facenook and upsetting him.



It is that Todd Cosper guy he is referring. I still cannot find that group where he posts this stuff. It is private and you have to get an invite.


----------



## Matt.M

Hilarious a grown man is doing this?  Maybe a girl (or boy) in middle school.


----------



## todd03blown

Matt.M said:


> Hilarious a grown man is doing this?  Maybe a girl (or boy) in middle school.



A local real estate guy at that. Shameful.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> It is that Todd Cosper guy he is referring. I still cannot find that group where he posts this stuff. It is private and you have to get an invite.



It's on "secret".  Someone from within the cult, I mean the group has to invite you to be a part of it.  Just make a fake Facebook account and have someone add you.  That's what I did.  

But that's a secret too... don't tell nobody!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Nope.  Not upset at ALL, I promise you that.  Just having a little fun with a fraud.
> 
> When you get exposed as a fraud and you make it completely clear that you are not a forecaster or weather junkie, weather geek, no... that you are more of an *attention seeker* and have this overwhelming need to feel *"important"* so much so that you are willing to copy other people's work and claim it as your own.  Then I am going to give you the attention you deserve.
> 
> When you are that person and you get exposed for what you are, you get what you get and I could not be more pleased to see a guy who was not only copying me, but copying others as it turns out and now he's had to make his little attention corner of the world "secret" but the fool doesn't realize that 100+ members here and personal friends of mine are following him as well.    and they are like bird dogs now that the truth has come around.
> 
> Pretty shady.  A secret group about weather.  That in and of itself is funny.
> 
> Funny to me also that he post links to everyone else who is public and knows what they are talking about.  Now why do you suppose that is?  A secret weather page on facebook where the "leader" doesn't post any of his own thoughts and sources to back up HIS thoughts... no... he just post links to other people's work.  I think it's time he disbanded the group, but knowing what I know about pride... that's not happening.
> 
> Ok, off my soap box now.



That's one of dem ponderables. 

I was only kidding about the upset part.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> It's on "secret".  Someone from within the cult, I mean the group has to invite you to be a part of it.  Just make a fake Facebook account and have someone add you.  That's what I did.
> 
> But that's a secret too... don't tell nobody!


----------



## GA DAWG

The yeller flowers are blooming. Everybody knows thats when we have our biggest snows


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> The yeller flowers are blooming. Everybody knows thats when we have our biggest snows



I just scalped the grass and trimmed the rose bushes...won't be long now.


----------



## PappyHoel

Live from port canavral it's 76 degrees and 2 beers in.  We haven't left port yet .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> I just scalped the grass and trimmed the rose bushes...won't be long now.



Just beggin for a killin frost aren't you?


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just beggin for a killin frost aren't you?



It's my offering to the Gods of Winter...I'm getting desperate.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> It's my offering to the Gods of Winter...I'm getting desperate.



Yeah, let me know how that frost ball fight or building a frost man works out for you.


----------



## blood on the ground

I need snow. .. hind end deep to a 10ft Indian...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> I need snow. .. hind end deep to a 10ft Indian...



You smokin da good stuff now?


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You smokin da good stuff now?



Na, just wishing and hoping brother!


----------



## blood on the ground

Honestly I'd love to experience a NCHillbilly winter one time in my life...


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I'm ready for mild weather and tight lines myself.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Honestly I'd love to experience a NCHillbilly winter one time in my life...


All you need is a good bottle of whiskey and some gas money and he'll let you come up and sperience it.


----------



## parisinthe20s

PappyHoel said:


> Live from port canavral it's 76 degrees and 2 beers in.  We haven't left port yet .



I used to live near port Canaveral, Merritt Island.  Enjoy that humid weather


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> All you need is a good bottle of whiskey and some gas money and he'll let you come up and sperience it.



LOL.. I'd come home 100lbs heavier!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> LOL.. I'd come home 100lbs heavier!



Then we'd call you RP


----------



## MariettaDawg

Whelp, stick a fork in it. Winter's over. Sandhills just flew over headed back north.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

MariettaDawg said:


> Whelp, stick a fork in it. Winter's over. Sandhills just flew over headed back north.



9 more days and Meteorological Spring is here!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Heads up for the February Severe Weather update for this week. Some of you might want to pay attention.


----------



## smokey30725

Yippee. I just finished the first lawn mowing of the season. This warm weather and rain had it looking so bad I couldn't stand it so I mowed and sweated and got tore up by mosquitos. Couple that with the tree frogs croaking and birds singing all night, I guess winter is no more.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Yippee. I just finished the first lawn mowing of the season. This warm weather and rain had it looking so bad I couldn't stand it so I mowed and sweated and got tore up by mosquitos. Couple that with the tree frogs croaking and birds singing all night, I guess winter is no more.



Wait, what? You mowed birds and tree frogs while swatting skeeters?


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wait, what? You mowed birds and tree frogs while swatting skeeters?



It was tough, but I managed to get most of them.


----------



## coilee

Thanks for the heads up. Is this going to be below the fall line deal?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

coilee said:


> Thanks for the heads up. Is this going to be below the fall line deal?



Morning Coilee. I just updated the STS thread in the Met Shack. The graphics pretty much answer your question. In short, make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries.


----------



## coilee

Thanks learning more everyday.


----------



## GA DAWG

Snow? Ive heard talk of wedge and cad area.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> Snow? Ive heard talk of wedge and cad area.



...you mean up to and including the infamous "NW Lanier Ice Fields?"


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

OK folks, the trend is not favoring bluebird skies. It is trending Dorothy and Toto stuff. Tomorrow morning, if the NAM keeps on this track of continually getting worse and stronger I will be laying down some very important information for everyone to heed.

For now, if you have friends or family anywhere around SW Alabama make sure they are aware that they are in the bullseye and they need to have their head on a swivel tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is a very serious set up brewing.


----------



## smokey30725

It sure doesn't feel right outside. Been in shorts and t shirt all weekend and still sweating whenever I go outside. Warm and humid.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

New post up in the Severe section of Met Shack this morning. Everyone needs to pay attention.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> New post up in the Severe section of Met Shack this morning. Everyone needs to pay attention.





Noted. Thanks, Hugh.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Noted. Thanks, Hugh.



You're welcome sir.

Unfortunately for NCHillbilly he gets a good chance at getting hammered by insanely high winds and maybe even a shot at a twisty/spinny thing and then dumped on by snow on the backside of it all. The worst of both worlds and I can promise you I wouldn't want to be in his shoes this week.


----------



## coilee

Thanks for keeping up with it all.


----------



## jbird1

Old Man Winter is giving a head fake at the present...I'm not buying it.


----------



## Hornet22

Coming down a flood over here in the 30656, good lawt


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Wooo! End of winter!

Everyone stay safe during this event.


----------



## smokey30725

Ugh. Balmy and humid this morning. Give me crisp and cold over this any day.


----------



## DDD

Everyone in the entire state of GA will need to pay very close attention in the coming hours about the potential that exist for tomorrow.  

Not a lot of talk going on about it yet because it's still 36 hours out, but I cannot explain to you folks enough, and I just got off the phone with Miguel, tomorrow night / Wednesday early morning looks to be really, really rough for our entire state.  Strong storms including tornadoes look to be on our door step.


----------



## jbird1

Thunderboomers happening here at the present...


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Everyone in the entire state of GA will need to pay very close attention in the coming hours about the potential that exist for tomorrow.
> 
> Not a lot of talk going on about it yet because it's still 36 hours out, but I cannot explain to you folks enough, and I just got off the phone with Miguel, tomorrow night / Wednesday early morning looks to be really, really rough for our entire state.  Strong storms including tornadoes look to be on our door step.




Models show snow = we get no snow

Models show severe weather = we get severe weather 

This trend is not one I appreciate.


----------



## elandil

So, Say I was travelling from Northwest Georgia to SW Miss, staying on main highways until I reached Jackson, MS. From the maps I'm reading, If I left early tomorrow morning, I would be at my destination by dark, and would be there before the major stuff starts. The trip would be right along the storm line, so I'd be on the edge of it maybe getting some rain but nothing really major until after dark.

Am I looking at that correctly, or am I missing something?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elandil said:


> So, Say I was travelling from Northwest Georgia to SW Miss, staying on main highways until I reached Jackson, MS. From the maps I'm reading, If I left early tomorrow morning, I would be at my destination by dark, and would be there before the major stuff starts. The trip would be right along the storm line, so I'd be on the edge of it maybe getting some rain but nothing really major until after dark.
> 
> Am I looking at that correctly, or am I missing something?



Possibly. If I HAD to go to that region tomorrow (which I don't advise right now) I would leave much much earlier in the morning. Timing is still up in the air as the models jiggle a little bit to sort out the exact when, where and what.


----------



## DDD

elandil said:


> So, Say I was travelling from Northwest Georgia to SW Miss, staying on main highways until I reached Jackson, MS. From the maps I'm reading, If I left early tomorrow morning, I would be at my destination by dark, and would be there before the major stuff starts. The trip would be right along the storm line, so I'd be on the edge of it maybe getting some rain but nothing really major until after dark.
> 
> Am I looking at that correctly, or am I missing something?



At 5 PM tomorrow, going by simulated radar, it would be really cranking in East LA and SW Mississippi and actually across all of Southern Miss.

While I am on this, EVERYONE please pay attention:

SIMULATED RADAR IS NOT GOSPEL.  IT'S JUST AN IDEA ABOUT LOCATION BUT IT COULD BE BIGGER, MORE WIDE SPREAD, ECT...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> SIMULATED RADAR IS NOT GOSPEL.  IT'S JUST AN IDEA ABOUT LOCATION BUT IT COULD BE BIGGER, MORE WIDE SPREAD, ECT...



Please heed those words of advice. I also just put up a new pretty colors map on the Met Shack.

This is not a system to play with. I have told DDD and others, loss of life is not out of the question with this system as it is projected right now. 

The models seem to be shifting so I am hoping for a weakening in projected strength to minimize this risk some, but won't make any changes to my map until in the morning. 

Keep your heads on a swivel and your weather radios on and close by.


----------



## smokey30725

Man, that latest map has that red right over my little slice of NW Georgia. Going to go ahead and move anything we might need to keep safe into the storm shelter tonight and pray for the best.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Man, that latest map has that red right over my little slice of NW Georgia. Going to go ahead and move anything we might need to keep safe into the storm shelter tonight and pray for the best.



Pray for the best & prepare for the worst. 

Since you mentioned it. People seem to get lackadaisical over severe weather maps when they don't see red over their back yard. That is a very ignorant habit to get into. These storms will be cellular in nature, not broad sweeping straight line winds (though some of those aren't out of the question) and a cell can pop up about anywhere conditions are favorable. 

If you've ever been in a straightline wind they can be bad. If you've ever been in a micro-burst (downburst) you'll be praying it were just a straightline wind. 

Tornados aren't the only threat, and the pretty colors aren't exactly the 100% only place these can occur. 

When I say the potential (as it stands now) for loss of life tomorrow night into Wed. morning is good, it shouldn't matter what color you live under. Everyone should be preparing as if it WAS their back yard that was going to be hit.


----------



## smokey30725

Weather radio will be beside the cell phone on the night stand tonight, both fully charged. Already got the emergency kit and a few gallons of water stashed in the storm shelter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Someone PM'd me and asked me which weather radio to get. 

I have the Midland WR-120 and like it. It is SAME programmable. 

I don't use phone apps for such a life saving dependent device but one fella over on my Weather Junkies page said he has used the "Pro Weather Alert" app with great results. It is a pay app that I know nothing about. I know Spann and others hate weather apps, and I tend to agree, but being an alert app as a redundancy to a good weather radio might not be a bad idea.

Bottom line is, any weather radio or alert app is better than not having one. Depending on tornado sirens is a very bad idea.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Someone PM'd me and asked me which weather radio to get.
> 
> I have the Midland WR-120 and like it. It is SAME programmable.
> 
> I don't use phone apps for such a life saving dependent device but one fella over on my Weather Junkies page said he has used the "Pro Weather Alert" app with great results. It is a pay app that I know nothing about. I know Spann and others hate weather apps, and I tend to agree, but being an alert app as a redundancy to a good weather radio might not be a bad idea.
> 
> Bottom line is, any weather radio or alert app is better than not having one. Depending on tornado sirens is a very bad idea.



I have "Weather Radio" and have had it on both iPhone and Android. The forecasts are a little hit/miss but I have never missed an alert with this thing. Even when I'm travelling it stays SAME locked in on me.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pray for the best & prepare for the worst.
> 
> Since you mentioned it. People seem to get lackadaisical over severe weather maps when they don't see red over their back yard. That is a very ignorant habit to get into. These storms will be cellular in nature, not broad sweeping straight line winds (though some of those aren't out of the question) and a cell can pop up about anywhere conditions are favorable.
> 
> If you've ever been in a straightline wind they can be bad. If you've ever been in a micro-burst (downburst) you'll be praying it were just a straightline wind.
> 
> Tornados aren't the only threat, and the pretty colors aren't exactly the 100% only place these can occur.
> 
> When I say the potential (as it stands now) for loss of life tomorrow night into Wed. morning is good, it shouldn't matter what color you live under. Everyone should be preparing as if it WAS their back yard that was going to be hit.



A month or so after the Ringgold tornado in April 2011 that missed my area of Ringgold, we had some straight line winds/downburst hit.  About a 1/2 mile wide and 1 mile long area ended up with hundreds of trees down.  Would have sworn it was a tornado but it wasn't.  All the trees pointed the same direction.  But I don't care to go through another storm like that.  

One nice thing about living in the country, several folks with tractors put forks on the front and between them and those of us with chainsaws we had the road back open in 2-3 hours.  

Be nice if this one can miss us.  Just had my tree guy out yesterday to price getting 3 large oaks that could hit my house taken down.  Be my luck to get them blown on the house a day or two before he's coming back to remove them.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> A month or so after the Ringgold tornado in April 2011 that missed my area of Ringgold, we had some straight line winds/downburst hit.  About a 1/2 mile wide and 1 mile long area ended up with hundreds of trees down.  Would have sworn it was a tornado but it wasn't.  All the trees pointed the same direction.  But I don't care to go through another storm like that.
> 
> One nice thing about living in the country, several folks with tractors put forks on the front and between them and those of us with chainsaws we had the road back open in 2-3 hours.
> 
> Be nice if this one can miss us.  Just had my tree guy out yesterday to price getting 3 large oaks that could hit my house taken down.  Be my luck to get them blown on the house a day or two before he's coming back to remove them.



Just to be clear. A straight line wind (strong gust front) and a downburst are not the same event. Some call the 360° winds from a downburst "straight line" winds, but that is a deceptive use of the terminology. Technically they are correct in that all of the trees are laid down in the same direction, unless you looked at the damage from above. Whereas with a gust front straight line wind all of the trees are truly laid down in the same direction with no center of origin as with in a downburst, microburst or macroburst.


----------



## DDD

NWS is on board and very strong wording from them 36 hours out.

MAIN EVENT HOWEVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT AREAWIDE INCLUDING THE
PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. VERY
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 100 KTS AS WELL AS COMPOSITE
INDICES SUCH AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER SHOWING VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 6 INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GIVEN THESE FACTS THOUGH...THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH WEDGE CUTS OFF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND HOW
MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE AREA.

FEELING AT THIS MOMENT IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH THAT
NONE OF THE ABOVE MITIGATING ISSUES WILL MATTER AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITIES WILL BE
THE FACT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE QLCS AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
WIND FLOW PATTERN.


----------



## elandil

to be on the safe side, trip has been postponed until wednesday once the storms have moved thru. 

thanks, I appreciate the advice.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elandil said:


> to be on the safe side, trip has been postponed until wednesday once the storms have moved thru.
> 
> thanks, I appreciate the advice.



I believe that is a very prudent and wise decision.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just to be clear. A straight line wind (strong gust front) and a downburst are not the same event. Some call the 360° winds from a downburst "straight line" winds, but that is a deceptive use of the terminology. Technically they are correct in that all of the trees are laid down in the same direction, unless you looked at the damage from above. Whereas with a gust front straight line wind all of the trees are truly laid down in the same direction with no center of origin as with in a downburst, microburst or macroburst.



Good info.  This had to be a straight line wind then.  When you're good buddies with the guys in medical helicopter you can get occasional aerial reconnaissance.  This area was right over their usual flight path to my region.  However, he didn't get a picture, something about actually taking care of the patient kept him from it.


----------



## snarlinbear

All I can do is relate what I have observed in the last week.  I started watching the Berry College Eagle Cam less than a week ago for this nesting season.  For the first day or two there was no stock pile of any food in their nest, just scraps or two as they appeared to be eating their kills.  It's worth a look now!  I don't know what it means but I believe they know some things coming.


----------



## jbird1

I happened to see a little finger of light snow dip down into Forsyth County on Brad Nitz's simulated snow model progression for late Wednesday night.....


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> Everyone in the entire state of GA will need to pay very close attention in the coming hours about the potential that exist for tomorrow.
> 
> Not a lot of talk going on about it yet because it's still 36 hours out, but I cannot explain to you folks enough, and I just got off the phone with Miguel, tomorrow night / Wednesday early morning looks to be really, really rough for our entire state.  Strong storms including tornadoes look to be on our door step.




Any portion of GA more than another portion?  Make sense?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

whitetaco02 said:


> Any portion of GA more than another portion?  Make sense?



See my map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Really hoping the 06z run of the NAM varies greatly from what I am looking at in this latest run. This is horrible folks. I'm just sitting here shaking my head wondering how in the world you make a risk map out of such wide spread potential. 

Fingers crossed for something different in the morning, and a few prayers added to boot.


----------



## coilee

Is that the map you posted earlier today?


----------



## lbzdually

I see NW Georgia went to high risk for severe weather, that stinks.


----------



## malak05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS LATE HOUR. A VERY STRONG
500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN ON TUESDAY...CARVING OUT ONE
OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I
HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BELOW 990MB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH INCREDIBLE WIND FIELDS AT ALL
LEVELS BY 00Z WED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GAINING ORGANIZATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
SHORT RANGE MODELS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST
AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALL THE WHILE A VERY STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE...SOME OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH TEXAS HEAT AND AN EML MUCH
LIKE IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THIS EML SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF TO DISRUPT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT IS
MOST CONCERNING IS THE CONSENSUS THAT A 700MB DRYLINE/FRONT...
MARKED BY A SHARP THETA-E DROP AND ORIGINATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AT THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BECOME INTENSE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE
A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
70-90 KT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD YIELD
A BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY STRONGLY
FAVORS A THREAT FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.

More strong words from a another NWS hub tomorrow and Wednesday morning looking ominous... I'm handling overnights this week and better believe gonna have my family # ready to call for storms as they come toward the west side of Georgia overnight


----------



## blood on the ground

malak05 said:


> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
> 1103 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
> 
> .UPDATE...
> SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE.
> 
> &&
> 
> .DISCUSSION...
> 
> WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
> BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS LATE HOUR. A VERY STRONG
> 500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
> TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN ON TUESDAY...CARVING OUT ONE
> OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I
> HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW
> PRESSURE BELOW 990MB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
> ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH INCREDIBLE WIND FIELDS AT ALL
> LEVELS BY 00Z WED.
> 
> A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GAINING ORGANIZATION ACROSS
> SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
> SHORT RANGE MODELS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST
> AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS
> INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALL THE WHILE A VERY STRONG ELEVATED
> MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS
> SOUTH TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
> NOTE...SOME OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE DEEP
> SOUTH HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH TEXAS HEAT AND AN EML MUCH
> LIKE IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THIS EML SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
> ACTIVITY FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF TO DISRUPT THE
> SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT IS
> MOST CONCERNING IS THE CONSENSUS THAT A 700MB DRYLINE/FRONT...
> MARKED BY A SHARP THETA-E DROP AND ORIGINATING FROM THE MEXICAN
> PLATEAU...WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AT THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE
> TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW-LEVEL
> JET WILL BECOME INTENSE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS DIFFERENTIAL
> THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE
> A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
> 70-90 KT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD YIELD
> A BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
> FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
> HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY STRONGLY
> FAVORS A THREAT FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS THE
> SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
> 
> More strong words from a another NWS hub tomorrow and Wednesday morning looking ominous... I'm handling overnights this week and better believe gonna have my family # ready to call for storms as they come toward the west side of Georgia overnight



Its never good when the words strong and long track are used by the NWS.. My family will be in the basement tomorrow night. thanks for posting this!


----------



## todd03blown

Thanks for the updates folks!! This is not good at all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Morning folks, please see the new post in the Met Shack.

Let me reiterate one important item here. Basically due to the nature of this system being a low level bulk shear event instead of having all of the necessary ingredients such as the thermo-dynamics of high daytime heating, and the destabilizing factors of high dewpoints the IMBY projections of the pretty color map is pretty much useless. 

Just because you don't have red or dark red over your B.Y. don't let your guard down. The level of shear from 925 up to 500mb is crazy high and putting us, especially me, in uncharted territory for severe weather. I have heard everything from the pro mets in the last 24 hours, from "long tracking tornados" to "mostly a non-event for us". This tells me they aren't versed in what is heading our way either. 

If this were April and 85 to 90°f with matching dewpoints and the shear dynamics present with this system it would be the most devastating super cell / tornado outbreak in the history of this country. But those two properties won't be present, so it's a wait and see, hope for the best, prepare for the worst game.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hope I didn't confuse y'all too much, but tried my best to offer the why of this difficult to predict system heading our way on the Met Shack. 

If you still have questions feel free to ask. Even some of the pros are confused and second guessing this one.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hope I didn't confuse y'all too much, but tried my best to offer the why of this difficult to predict system heading our way on the Met Shack.
> 
> If you still have questions feel free to ask. Even some of the pros are confused and second guessing this one.



Is this threat the system currently rolling into Western Louisiana?


----------



## GA DAWG

Temp has dropped into high 40s here. Is that good or does it matter.  I saw where cad areas may not be hit hard. Looks like the wedge is trying to come in here. Aint it? I sure hope so.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

MariettaDawg said:


> Is this threat the system currently rolling into Western Louisiana?



Yes.


----------



## RinggoldGa

What about this wrap around snow the models are teasing for north ga?  This fantasy stuff or just flurries?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Temp has dropped into high 40s here. Is that good or does it matter.  I saw where cad areas may not be hit hard. Looks like the wedge is trying to come in here. Aint it? I sure hope so.



You need to stop watching Glen Burns. 

It is difficult for me to articulate where everyone will understand it the same way. 

If you will look at the dynamic parameter maps I just posted on the Met Shack what I was attempting to convey is that in areas where the parameters were favorable for the typical lifting mechanisms to apply are the darkest red colors on my "pretty colors map". 

Outside of those areas typically I would not have so much red and orange, but much more yellow because dynamics such as temp/dewpoint equality will not exist, thus stabilizing the environment, which is what CAD essentially does to approaching storm systems. 

NOW, a typical low pressure system that brings us thunderstorms doesn't come at us with pressures below 990mb and upper, mid-level and low-level jets that are pushing 80 mph (low level) to 150 mph (upper level) winds thus creating an extremely hostile shear environment. This is why the other usually necessary parameters that will be absent don't really matter. It could be a strong CAD of -20° at 2m AGL and it wouldn't matter. This is where some of the pro's are completely missing the boat. 

Here's another abject lesson in MB / Altitude relationship. We can all agree that sea level is the base marker of absolute zero in altitude. Pressures at sea level operate in contrast to pressures at various altitudes thus conversion from altitude language to millibar pressure levels are more desirable. In general, depending on the pressure system over us, 1000mb is considered at or near sea level. If you say; "But the 850 mb jet is 80mph winds and we are sitting at 1,200 ft. elevation in GA how does that create more of a risk?"

850mb is = to 4,780 ft. +/- a few. Subtract your 1,200 ft. from that number and your 850 mb interaction level has just become 3500 ft. +/- essentially. Or on Brasstown bald, you are at 850mb and in extreme hostile territory. Up in NC Hillbillies neck of the woods that reduction falls near to under 1,000 ft difference depending on which hill you are on. If you remember the insane cold snap we just had, where the tropopause was bringing 500mb cold down to 850mb levels and lower? Now imagine a similar dynamic bringing 200mb jet stream winds down to 500mb levels and 500mb winds down to 850mb levels. The bulk shear (extreme interactions of wind at different levels with different stream directions and different topographic features and atmospheric parameters [lifting mechanisms]) are going to create conditions that are not applied to typical thunderstorm cell conditions. 

I hope that isn't too confusing and puts to rest the argument of CAD and what effect it isn't going to have on this system, as well as impresses on everyone just how dangerous the potential for this system really is.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> What about this wrap around snow the models are teasing for north ga?  This fantasy stuff or just flurries?



You'd have to ask DDD about that. My sentiment is, if you are excited or worried about that, you are playing pin the tail on the donkey instead of putting the donkey in the barn where he belongs for this storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all keep asking questions and I'll keep trying to explain it in different ways. I know it's like grillin beans to a lot of us, it just keeps fallin through the cracks.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I hope everyone stays safe during this storm. I'm taking care of my bed ridden about-to-give-birth sister, I sure hope this event isn't as strong as you fear it'll be.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

parisinthe20s said:


> I hope everyone stays safe during this storm. I'm taking care of my bed ridden about-to-give-birth sister, I sure hope this event isn't as strong as you fear it'll be.


Have you ever seen a wind tunnel test with an automobile? That is what we are up against in the areas where typical lifting mechanisms won't be in place to effect the dynamics. Topographic features will play an important part in how these intense winds interact with the atmosphere as well. Then in some cases it will be flat out squall line type straight line winds. With the ground being so saturated there will be some trees coming down. Thank goodness they haven't leaved out yet.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You'd have to ask DDD about that. My sentiment is, if you are excited or worried about that, you are playing pin the tail on the donkey instead of putting the donkey in the barn where he belongs for this storm.



Much more worried about the STS stuff but as I kept scrolling through the NAM, some of that wrap around blue stuff kept showing up!


----------



## Unicoidawg

Appreciate the work Hugh.


----------



## jbird1

RinggoldGa said:


> Much more worried about the STS stuff but as I kept scrolling through the NAM, some of that wrap around blue stuff kept showing up!



Also concerned about the STS.  On a side WW note, DDD posted that wrap around map back on 2-16 in the MET shack....looks to be holding true a week later.


----------



## DDD

Instead of just copying and pasting what the NWS says, I am going to try and add some commentary to their wording that hopefully will clear up their weather talk.  Anyone can copy and paste.  I think we have all learned that lesson.  Some of us harder than others. 


Area forecast discussion...updated aviation
national weather service peachtree city ga
642 am est tue feb 23 2016

.short term /today through wednesday/...
/issued at 346 am est tue feb 23 2016/
main concern in the short term continues to be the potential for
strong to severe storms tonight and early on wednesday... Along with
possible flooding from locally heavy rain.

Although a lull in the convective activity may occur today as our
next storm system deepens over texas... Don`t let this lower your
guard as computer models continue to show good agreement with this
strong storm system lifting eastward this evening and tracking
across the tennessee valley on Wednesday.  

Whenever the NWS tells you, the general public not to lower your guard, it's a big deal.  They don't deal in the arena of scaring people of sounding the alarm with out cause.  Miguel has been all over this for 5 days.  As I watched the local talking heads last night, I was disgusted.  "Your severe weather team" was a joke last night.  Showing this being a non-event.  The main weather guy on the radio who should have hung it up by now, even this morning, very mundane about the potential that exist.  So the NWS is fighting this lack of alertness from the local yocals in addition to trying to make this crystal clear.


This will drag a strong
cold front across the area early on Wednesday with widespread
showers and thunderstorms developing along and well out ahead of the
approaching cold front.   

This is concerning for me because I think a lot of people are going to go to bed tonight around 9PM thinking the storms have come and gone and it simply is nothing to worry about. 




At this time it appears a significant severe weather event is
unfolding as strong 40-50kt 0-1km bulk shear and 400-600 j/kg mucape
should be sufficient to support the development of supercell
storms... With damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the main
threats... 
If you have read even one posting by Miguel he continues to emphasize that the modeling of the low level shear is something we rarely see.  This is also going to occur at night.  Radar and a weather radio is all you will have on short notice.  Miguel and I can sit here and type until our fingers bleed but they have the ability to notify you immediately. 


Although small hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger
storms. At this time it appears the initial threat will come from
discrete supercells that develop ahead of a squall line... And push
into nw and west central ga sometime between late this evening or
shortly after midnight tonight. 

"Discrete Supercells"  Those are the storms that kill people.  Dead.  Because they are quick and nasty.  They show up on radar as a small blip but inside there is one raging storm.  Also in these discrete events there are usually many, instead of 3 massive storms.

These storms will continue to push
eastward overnight and will be followed by a distinct squall line
that appears to push across the area sometime between 3 am and 11 am
wednesday morning. 

You will be asleep.  Make sure your cell phone is plugged in, weather alerts on, if you have a weather radio, make sure it has batteries.  Because the first storm may knock the power out and the one training right behind it may bring the hammer.   


This qlcs type squall line will likely be the
main severe weather producer... Bringing a greater potential for
more widespread damaging winds... Along with a few embedded
tornadoes.

In addition to severe storms... Isolated flash flooding and minor
stream flooding will be possible... Especially if training of storms
occur over low lying... Flash flood prone areas. 

Miguel and I talked about this last night via text and if you follow me on twitter, I posted a map of it.  Everything we have seen model wise points to training of these nasty storms tonight.  Even as I am typing this the NAM has come in and I'm telling you, I don't care what the TV Mets are saying, all of N. GA needs to heed this warning and pay very close attention to the NWS, TV, Twitter and here for the very latest.


----------



## smokey30725

Thanks Miguel and DDD. I know that everything I've heard on both radio and TV have done exactly what you said: downplay this system. Rain showers and an occasional rumble of thunder is what they are saying. You couldn't pay me enough to be a meteorologist.


----------



## smokey30725

Are there any indications of a stall in this system yet? If that does take place, will it reduce or intensify the severity of this system? My gut tells me this could be a really insane next 24 hours. I cleared everything unnecessary out of the storm shelter last night so it's ready for us if needed.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD, that last chart you posted is ominous. That's just putting fuel in the tank of these storms.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Are there any indications of a stall in this system yet? If that does take place, will it reduce or intensify the severity of this system? My gut tells me this could be a really insane next 24 hours. I cleared everything unnecessary out of the storm shelter last night so it's ready for us if needed.



No indications of a stall, so a non-issue. Think of this as a sub-tropical inshore cyclone. Typically the minimal central pressure for a Cat 1 hurricane is 980mb. 

This system has already seen projections of 988mb in West LA by the time it arrives there. It has just moved into a position where it can pick up the warm Gulf moisture. Offshore it is 70°f+ as it is brought inshore and lift occurs with dynamic mechanisms in place due to daytime heating on the coastal areas lift will occur. As it rises it is compressed thus releasing energy into the atmposhere. As it is compressed and releases energy the waste product is super cooled air at altitude which cannot support itself and will rapidly fall towards the ground again. In this case it will be given a tillty whirl ride on the 850mb 80kt winds. 

Then end result of such dynamics is rarely good. Such a storm becomes it's own weather making machine totally independent from typical outside conditions that would subdue a typical 1024mb low pressure system.


----------



## todd03blown

Thanks Miguel and DDD. Appreciate all of your information.

I have shared it all with my friends in the area and our neighborhood, too.


----------



## smokey30725

Thanks Miguel. I get off work at 5 and should be home by 6:15 and we will batten down the hatches.


----------



## foxwatcher

I just linked this thread to a comment section on Fox5 FB...we're about to get a lot of guest views!
BTW-thank you DDD for detailing exactly what all this means in layman's terms.


----------



## DDD

foxwatcher said:


> I just linked this thread to a comment section on Fox5 FB...we're about to get a lot of guest views!
> BTW-thank you DDD for detailing exactly what all this means in layman's terms.



I don't know if I should say thanks or.... oh boy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

foxwatcher said:


> I just linked this thread to a comment section on Fox5 FB...we're about to get a lot of guest views!
> BTW-thank you DDD for detailing exactly what all this means in layman's terms.



As a result of this, if we get a sudden influx of "what time IMBY" and "how bad will it be IMBY" or any IMBY questions in general then Foxwatcher is hereby designated the go to guy for answering them.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As a result of this, if we get a sudden influx of "what time IMBY" and "how bad will it be IMBY" or any IMBY questions in general then Foxwatcher is hereby designated the go to guy for answering them.



How much tornado in my back yard and DDD how much snow on Thursday?  I'll hang up and listen!


----------



## foxwatcher

DDD said:


> I don't know if I should say thanks or.... oh boy.


Well, it was a reply to another comment, not a standalone, so it doesn't show up unless people click to view the reply. Apparently todd03blown has already seen it lol. 



Miguel Cervantes said:


> As a result of this, if we get a sudden influx of "what time IMBY" and "how bad will it be IMBY" or any IMBY questions in general then Foxwatcher is hereby designated the go to guy for answering them.


Haha, by the time they get approved to post on here, it will be sunny and clear out and they will have forgotten about it.

No good deed goes unpunished...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> How much tornado in my back yard and DDD how much snow on Thursday?  I'll hang up and listen!



This was posted on Twitter earlier today and shared by James Spann. I couldn't help but laugh out loud when reading it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

foxwatcher said:


> Well, it was a reply to another comment, not a standalone, so it doesn't show up unless people click to view the reply. Apparently todd03blown has already seen it lol.
> 
> 
> Haha, nah...by the time they get approved to post on here it will be sunny and clear out and they will have forgotten about it.
> 
> No good deed goes unpunished...



Don't bet on it.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This was posted on Twitter earlier today and shared by James Spann. I couldn't help but laugh out loud when reading it.



Twitter Gold.


----------



## foxwatcher

DDD said:


> How much tornado in my back yard and DDD how much snow on Thursday?  I'll hang up and listen!


----------



## todd03blown

foxwatcher said:


> Well, it was a reply to another comment, not a standalone, so it doesn't show up unless people click to view the reply. Apparently todd03blown has already seen it lol.



Yep, that was me. I had to check it out and "like" your comment


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> Yep, that was me. I had to check it out and "like" your comment



The NWS does not make it easy for most to understand exactly what is at risk or how serious a situation is by their use of terminology that fits the scenario. Actually and technically they are correct in how they do it. How that translates to the general public is where it gets lost because it is not in "plain speak" as we used to call it, for everyone to draw a similar conclusion from. 

Here's a prime example. 

One of you fella's tell me what these maps are telling you and what the difference between these two maps and why it is important.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Lots of bad things likely in the Gulf Coast region. Bad things less likely, but still possible, as you get further away from that.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

To help you out, and where that girl on facebook made her error in commenting about "marginal risk" as if it were a non-factor, is that she failed to educate herself to the definition of the terminology being used. 

Were I to respond to her I would most likely lead her to this link and ask her to reconsider her opinion, especially considering that TWC has come up with their own entire set of weather terms in order to attempt to convey severity of a situation to the general public. 

Neither is incorrect, they are just different.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Convective


----------



## todd03blown

Map1 - slight risk for severe weather in my area. I am in the yellow part.

Map2 - 5% chance for a tornadic activity in that brown area


Map 1 shows severe weather and Map 2 is referring to Tornadic activity?


----------



## DDD

Let's also be clear, storms don't pay any attention to lines, zones, or percentages.  It's man's guess at mother nature's hand.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Let's also be clear, storms don't pay any attention to lines, zones, or percentages.  It's man's guess at mother nature's hand.


Very true. That is a very magical hand she waves.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Lots of bad things likely in the Gulf Coast region. Bad things less likely, but still possible, as you get further away from that.





todd03blown said:


> Map1 - slight risk for severe weather in my area. I am in the yellow part.
> 
> Map2 - 5% chance for a tornadic activity in that brown area
> 
> 
> Map 1 shows severe weather and Map 2 is referring to Tornadic activity?



I would suggest both of you gentlemen follow the link in post #367 and read it, thoroughly. 

FWIW, I have posted the charts you will find in this link in the Weather Threads before in attempt to aid in understanding.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> To help you out, and where that girl on facebook made her error in commenting about "marginal risk" as if it were a non-factor, is that she failed to educate herself to the definition of the terminology being used.
> 
> Were I to respond to her I would most likely lead her to this link and ask her to reconsider her opinion, especially considering that TWC has come up with their own entire set of weather terms in order to attempt to convey severity of a situation to the general public.
> 
> Neither is incorrect, they are just different.
> 
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Convective



You have to give TWC credit though, they are trying (IMO) to get the general public no matter the "risk" to pay attention instead of looking at a news map and saying... well... my house is only in the green section.


----------



## snookdoctor

First nader warning just went up south of New Orleans.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> You have to give TWC credit though, they are trying (IMO) to get the general public no matter the "risk" to pay attention instead of looking at a news map and saying... well... my house is only in the green section.



As much disdain as I have for the "torcon" system I do believe they have done a magnificent job in converting "nerd" lingo into a language that the general public understands. This was glaringly exhibited by the girls comment on FB. It is unfortunate that the pros probably read her remarks and snickered at her ignorance on what she was saying. 

The primary reason the 10 code and Military Acronyms were thrown out the window for Emergency Managment Situations is because so many different agencies using so many different methods of communications were having to operate on the same wave length. It made sense, and is beyond me, why in times such as impending deadly weather, the various weather outlets cannot adopt a standard of common language so the confusion among the general public is minimized at best. 

That is what we try to do, but even then I feel like some aren't getting it. But then, some never will. 

As you said, anyone can copy and paste NWS disco, but interpreting it and breaking it down into plain speak is what is really needed.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That is what we try to do, but even then I feel like some aren't getting it. But then, some never will.



When you stand in a field in Nebraska and watch one of these things roar to life, hear it, smell the air, hear the sirens wailing off in the distance and watch it tear up a corn field and you start imagining, "What if there was house there?" 

You will get it.


----------



## DDD

People may think I am nuts, but the kids will have their ATV helmets next to the bed tonight and so will the wife and I.

Start thinking now, what you are going to do tonight when your phone goes off, you turn on the tv and you have 2 minutes to seek shelter and ride it out.  Don't wait until the 2 minute warning hits.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> When you stand in a field in Nebraska and watch one of these things roar to life, hear it, smell the air, hear the sirens wailing off in the distance and watch it tear up a corn field and you start imagining, "What if there was house there?"
> 
> You will get it.



Nope. My bro n law has a Masters in Math, lives in tornado alley in Bama, has lived through multiple twisty things, including the Oak Grove f-5 and he still doesn't get how to read a risk vs category map. He believes if Dice or Spann tells him that the red area isn't over his back yard then he has absolutely nothing to worry about.

My last remark to him in text this morning was; "Good luck with that".


----------



## Matthew6

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope. My bro n law has a Masters in Math, lives in tornado alley in Bama, has lived through multiple twisty things, including the Oak Grove f-5 and he still doesn't get how to read a risk vs category map. He believes if Dice or Spann tells him that the red area isn't over his back yard then he has absolutely nothing to worry about.
> 
> My last remark to him in text this morning was; "Good luck with that".



probably an auburn fan too.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Many of the stations on the SE side of MS are showing equilibrium in saturation. Temps/Dewpoints are dead even and at 100% Humidity. When this stuff coming onshore in S. LA reaches that area of the state it's gonna get real interesting real fast.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matthew6 said:


> probably an auburn fan too.



No, Bama....


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No, Bama....



UGH....Probably a Harvey Updyke fan.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Many of the stations on the SE side of MS are showing equilibrium in saturation. Temps/Dewpoints are dead even and at 100% Humidity. When this stuff coming onshore in S. LA reaches that area of the state it's gonna get real interesting real fast.



Looks like a line of boomers forming south of LA.  Do I see them robbing moisture from the established rain to the north?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

MariettaDawg said:


> Looks like a line of boomers forming south of LA.  Do I see them robbing moisture from the established rain to the north?



The airflow is from the South West.


----------



## todd03blown

One thing I have noticed outside today are the birds. They are out and about in large, ;arge numbers. Acting like they do when a big snow is coming.

I guess they can sense some serious storms are heading our way? They seem very aggressive, too. Getting anything and everything food related they can find.

My bird dogs (GSP) are going crazy watching them outside.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Many of the stations on the SE side of MS are showing equilibrium in saturation. Temps/Dewpoints are dead even and at 100% Humidity. When this stuff coming onshore in S. LA reaches that area of the state it's gonna get real interesting real fast.



Let me rephrase the above information.

SE MS is a powder keg waiting to go off.


----------



## foxwatcher

todd03blown said:


> One thing I have noticed outside today are the birds. They are out and about in large, ;arge numbers. Acting like they do when a big snow is coming.
> 
> I guess they can sense some serious storms are heading our way? They seem very aggressive, too. Getting anything and everything food related they can find.
> 
> My bird dogs (GSP) are going crazy watching them outside.



I noticed that here as well.


----------



## snarlinbear

snarlinbear said:


> All I can do is relate what I have observed in the last week.  I started watching the Berry College Eagle Cam less than a week ago for this nesting season.  For the first day or two there was no stock pile of any food in their nest, just scraps or two as they appeared to be eating their kills.  It's worth a look now!  I don't know what it means but I believe they know some things coming.



This was my post from my video ground truth observation of the wild bald eagles preparation for the coming weather.  The live feed is worth a look to see for yourself the majesty of the eagle family preparing for natures onslaught.  I wish I could fish and hunt so well.


----------



## keithsto

Spinny things firing up in Louisiana.

Gold's Gym in Prarieville, LA


----------



## Gone Fishing

DDD said:


> People may think I am nuts, but the kids will have their ATV helmets next to the bed tonight and so will the wife and I.
> 
> Start thinking now, what you are going to do tonight when your phone goes off, you turn on the tv and you have 2 minutes to seek shelter and ride it out.  Don't wait until the 2 minute warning hits.



Great since you are not far from me I guess I will sleep downstairs tonight next to laundry room with all my dirtbike gear. Ughhhh.  I kept hoping it was going to fall apart.


----------



## Dustin Pate

keithsto said:


> Spinny things firing up in Louisiana.
> 
> Gold's Gym in Prarieville, LA



That is a mile and a half or less from my cousin's house. Just text him to see if his wife and kids are at home. He is at work in Baton Rouge.


----------



## smokey30725

Everyone charge those cell phones and have a place in your house ready to go. Don't wait until one is bearing down on you to clear out all the junk in the closet in order to take shelter. Do it now. Put the blankets and pillows in there in case the kids need to sleep in there. When DDD and Miguel show concern, that's all the warning I need.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's a fun little website. If you want to know how many spinny things your back yard has had then go here. Set the parameters to 5000 per page to see all of Ga's tornado's OR type your county in the box to just see your back yard. 

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/Georgia/map


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I was really hoping I would wake up in the morning and all of this would be passed us and we could go on about our day. With this latest run of the NAM that doesn't appear to be the case.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I was really hoping I would wake up in the morning and all of this would be passed us and we could go on about our day. With this latest run of the NAM that doesn't appear to be the case.



The sun is out here, not good 

don't need that heater out


----------



## lbzdually

I don't like this at all.  We are on top of a hill and when winds is blowing 10 mph everywhere else it is 20 mph here. I'm hoping 40-50 mph winds don't translate to 80-100 mph here.  I've had a horrible migraine all day from the front coming in, so my wife is getting things ready to hit the basement.


----------



## rolltidega

I have not seen the sun all day here in Hiram so I take that as a good sign for me.  Regardless I will remain weather aware in the early morning hours.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Just posted event timing update maps in the Met Shack.

As you view them keep these two charts in mind also.


----------



## keithsto

500mb jet tomorrow from @wxbrad on Twitter
https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/702238554810875906


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> 500mb jet tomorrow from @wxbrad on Twitter



As impressive as that is, our weather does not occur at 500mb.  It is a useful map in understanding the dynamics driving the 850mb wind maps, which in turn interact with the 925 wind (crossover) wind barbs.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just posted event timing update maps in the Met Shack.
> 
> As you view them keep these two charts in mind also.



holy cow. Some of those winds speeds are crazy. 60-80mph?


----------



## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As impressive as that is, our weather does not occur at 500mb.  It is a useful map in understanding the dynamics driving the 850mb wind maps, which in turn interact with the 925 wind (crossover) wind barbs.



Thanks, Mig.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> holy cow. Some of those winds speeds are crazy. 60-80mph?


No, those wind barbs represent kts. If you look closer to NC/SC border on the last map you will see some double flag barbs representing 100kts at the 850mb height. 

It's going to be a bad day for folks up that way just from gradient winds alone.


----------



## keithsto

Watching some of the stormchaser streams on tvnweather.com, and this was an excerpt from one of the tornado warning alerts:

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> Watching some of the stormchaser streams on tvnweather.com, and this was an excerpt from one of the tornado warning alerts:
> 
> TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.



Not sure I understand what you're getting at? Do you have friends or family near Reserve?


----------



## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not sure I understand what you're getting at?



Just how fast these cells and the tornadoes are moving.  Gives people less time to prepare if one is on the ground headed their way at 50mph.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> Just how fast these cells and the tornadoes are moving.  Gives people less time to prepare if one is on the ground headed their way at 50mph.



Got it. Yes you are correct. The average time between a warning being issued and arrival of a tornado is now 10 to 15 minutes. Which is about correct for what these folks had since there was a prior warning downstream of the path. However these bounce n go's, as I call them, don't allow that much time, and add night time and the lack of ground truth and it is cut down to merely a couple of minutes if not much less. 


Some of the guys on here were preaching preparedness, and rightly so with this type of gradient driven system.


----------



## doenightmare

So it's 51 in Roswell currently. Will the cooler temps not help in stabilizing the atmosphere?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

doenightmare said:


> So it's 51 in Roswell currently. Will the cooler temps not help in stabilizing the atmosphere?



Temps will be rising overnight. 

This is a two staged system. Dynamic lift, which is effected by temps, helicity, dewpoint etc etc etc and then the next wave will be the gradient winds. This is not a typical system.


----------



## doenightmare

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Temps will be rising overnight.
> 
> This is a two staged system. Dynamic lift, which is effected by temps, helicity, dewpoint etc etc etc and then the next wave will be the gradient winds. This is not a typical system.



Carp - I hate late night spinny things. Been there - done that.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Tv mets are really downplaying this storm.I didn't have much faith in them to begin with, even less now. They keep talking about rain, like that's our biggest problem. Hopefully it will be.


----------



## SGADawg

We already have over a dozen school systems in South GA that have cancelled school for tomorrow. I never saw that before when the weather was still nice. Currently 80 degrees and sunny in mby.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Wrdw.com fb is on target


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

SGADawg said:


> We already have over a dozen school systems in South GA that have cancelled school for tomorrow. I never saw that before when the weather was still nice. Currently 80 degrees and sunny in mby.



It is precautionary because of the risk level where you are. More so for ICC and shelter space, in case.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Watching the radar, and west ga. This system isn't going to play by the timing rules. Y'all put your head on a swivel tonight.


----------



## deerhunter75

*Weather app.*

Is there a weather app that has tornado warnings / radio alerts for people that do not have weather radios?

Thanks
Deerhunter 75


----------



## Nicodemus

Ready as we can be down here. Glad I`m not on standby.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhunter75 said:


> Is there a weather app that has tornado warnings / radio alerts for people that do not have weather radios?
> 
> Thanks
> Deerhunter 75



Try the "simple weather alert" app. They have a paid version called "pro weather alert". Make sure you take time to set up all of your notifications and locator mode. 

It is a good idea however, to always have two modes of alert. So after this event you are going to buy you a SAME Weather Radio........right?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Ready as we can be down here. Glad I`m not on standby.



Man Nick I'm watchin the radar and prayin for y'all down there. The conditions are sho nuff more favorable down your way, and unfortunately I'm not gonna be awake when it gets bumpy later on.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

LA has gotten torn up this afternoon and now SW AL is getting in on the action. It's never good when you're watchin the radar and this pops up. 

Y'all say a prayer for these folks.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man Nick I'm watchin the radar and prayin for y'all down there. The conditions are sho nuff more favorable down your way, and unfortunately I'm not gonna be awake when it gets bumpy later on.





Thanks, Hugh. I speck I`ll be staying up tonight for a while. If it`s gonna get us, I`d rather be looking at it when it does. Boogery feeling around here already.


----------



## deerhunter75

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Try the "simple weather alert" app. They have a paid version called "pro weather alert". Make sure you take time to set up all of your notifications and locator mode.
> 
> It is a good idea however, to always have two modes of alert. So after this event you are going to buy you a SAME Weather Radio........right?



  Thanks for the info. I bought my radio last night. But my parents and my brother do not have a radio.


Deerhunter75


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhunter75 said:


> Thanks for the info. I bought my radio last night. But my parents and my brother do not have a radio.
> 
> 
> Deerhunter75


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's that same radar shot in Storm Relative Velocity mode. Boys and girls, that is one monster of a spinny thing. My heart sinks when I see this kind of stuff.


----------



## elandil

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Try the "simple weather alert" app. They have a paid version called "pro weather alert". Make sure you take time to set up all of your notifications and locator mode.
> 
> It is a good idea however, to always have two modes of alert. So after this event you are going to buy you a SAME Weather Radio........right?



well...I've already got 2 apps....the TV.....the HAM radio..the sirens...but it might not hurt to pick up another redundancy...


----------



## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's that same radar shot in Storm Relative Velocity mode. Boys and girls, that is one monster of a spinny thing. My heart sinks when I see this kind of stuff.



If anyone is interested, storm chaser Brett Adair is following this tornado on tvnweather.com/live


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Man, y'all please watch each others six and keep your head on a swivel tonight. Radios, TV's and weather apps. Whatever it takes. Old 60grit is down to about a 600grit after years of doin this and seeing these kind of radar images really gets to me because I know what's happening on the ground under them. 

Don't want any missing woodyites come tomorrow. 

Y'all here?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

keithsto said:


> If anyone is interested, storm chaser Brett Adair is following this tornado on tvnweather.com/live



Thanks for the link.


----------



## Nicodemus

It`s been hot and sunny here all day. Windy now and clouds are rolling in. This old rascal was enjoying the day too. Bet it`s done took cover by now.


----------



## PappyHoel

These storms look scary.  Heading straight northeast tonight.  I may just stay up late and watch the weather and Nevada caucus.


----------



## GA DAWG

Whats a good sev weather warning app?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> It`s been hot and sunny here all day. Windy now and clouds are rolling in. This old rascal was enjoying the day too. Bet it`s done took cover by now.



I could have done without that!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all also keep the First Responders in your prayers. They're gonna be working in impossible conditions tonight and not knowing if another tornado is following up the one they are responding too or not. There is no amount of money can cover what they will be doing all night long while they are away from their families.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all also keep the First Responders in your prayers. They're gonna be working in impossible conditions tonight and not knowing if another tornado is following up the one they are responding too or not. There is no amount of money can cover what they will be doing all night long while they are away from their families.




Yep. Gonna be along next couple of days for some friends of mine.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

If you're on Twitter or Facebook make sure to thank your local met, whoever he or she may be. They've been at this all day and will stay with it all night long just to keep everyone informed in an attempt to keep them safe. 

It is a thankless job for them that they do out of passion for their profession, not the money, cause it sure isn't enough during times like this.


----------



## smokey30725

I know I will be up for a while. My 11 year old is a nervous wreck. Hoping that NW Georgia misses the rough stuff. Wife and I will be praying for all those in harm's way.


----------



## coilee

We are praying for all. Thanks Miguel we are watching and thinking of members.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I wish y'all could see this monster churning out over open water. The rotation is clearly visible on radar. It is massive and heading right for Gulf Shores AL.


----------



## keithsto

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wish y'all could see this monster churning out over open water. The rotation is clearly visible on radar. It is massive and heading right for Gulf Shores AL.



Would hate to be on an oil rig out in that.  Yikes!


----------



## keithsto

NWS warned the one from the gulf:

* AT 712 PM CST...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 
8 MILES SOUTH OF GULF SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS 
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE 
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... 
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE 
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.


----------



## coilee

Friends in south Ga be careful. Stay safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Turnin in for now. Leaving the radar fired up on the puter just in case. Y'all stay safe tonight.


----------



## snarlinbear

Kiethsto:  Your web link at #425 is awesome.  Brett Adair caught up with the twister and is now on live TV feed rescue.  INCREDABLE!   Thanks for the tip!


----------



## smokey30725

Just added all the surrounding counties to my weather radio, along with fresh batteries. Looking at the photos from LA and MS, I sure do pray for those folks down there and anyone else in the path of these storms.


----------



## Battlewagon

It has gotten real in Escambia county FL. Scanner app has gone nuts and it sounds like bad damage. All ya'll down in SW Ga keep your heads down.


----------



## havin_fun_huntin

Wind at the house is blowing from east to west.  That always makes me nervous


----------



## blood on the ground

I'm pulling a all nighter


----------



## Nicodemus

Wind getting up more here, straight out of the south. Gonna be a long night.


----------



## bigelow

Serious ?? Does my local whether man know what he is talking about??


----------



## JB0704

I trust mine bigs......guy on am750.  I check that forecast and his weather blog all the time.  Seems to get it right more often than not, and I certainly am not an expert to know otherwise.


----------



## blood on the ground

Nicodemus said:


> Wind getting up more here, straight out of the south. Gonna be a long night.



Y'all stay safe down there Nic


----------



## smokey30725

I see that they are temporarily suspending recovery efforts near Pensacola due to another approaching storm.


----------



## foxwatcher

I'm pretty sauced; about to grill burgers and William's Grocery sausage while watching the storm.


----------



## blood on the ground

Looks like Dothan Al just had a confirmed tornado. My sister works at a hospital not very far from there.


----------



## Nicodemus

Rain just started here, with a good bit of thunder, lightning and the wind is getting worse. Cows in the fields around the house are going crazy.


----------



## doenightmare

Nicodemus said:


> Rain just started here, with a good bit of thunder, lightning and the wind is getting worse. Cows in the fields around the house are going crazy.



RADAR looks nasty down your way Nic. Keep up with what's happening the next 3-4 hours.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Rain just woke me up  and I saw this beast. Y'all got plumb lucky Nic. It got ahold to the NE side of Dothan and on up through the NE side above Blakely too it looks like. Clay Ga to be exact. Mainly lots of trees down, but there was some damage near WalMart in Dothan and then again reports from up the road in Kinsey. Lots of open land down that way so isolated damage will take a while to be reported. Came right over your head Nick, glad it lifted up by then. 

This next one just went through Milford and has a bullseye for the Albany / Leesburg area. Y'all be safe down there.


----------



## hayseed_theology

That one that went north of Blakely went right by us here in Morgan.  Got a couple more headed our general direction.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

hayseed_theology said:


> That one that went north of Blakely went right by us here in Morgan.  Got a couple more headed our general direction.



Yep, Twins, good grief!!!


----------



## Jeff C.

Getting heavy winds all the way up to Hampton.


----------



## Jeff C.

Seems to have calmed down significantly for now, maybe something passed close by. Wasn't looking at any radar, but it woke me up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Albany area is in the hornets nest. One just tried to spin up at Sasser. This one coming from Milford is mean. Excellent rotation and structure. I hope it stays up and doesn't touch down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hope everyone is staying safe in Albany / Leesburg. These things just keep coming and popping up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks to be settled down now in SOWEGA. time for the gradient winds to come through in a few waves up in N Ga. They've already taken some trees down and power out in N Al.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mornin' Woodyites & Weather Geeks. How are y'all liking these gradient winds? These are gonna be with us all day, and probably by 9am or so SOWEGA will start to feel them. So, the potential for trees coming down and power outages isn't over until this low clears our area, and that's gonna be a while. 

When I went to bed the 1st time last night Cartersville was about 20°f cooler. I see this ol' low pressure has changed that quite a bit. Everyone will notice a cooling off coming in on the backside of this low when it starts lifting out of our region.


----------



## GA DAWG

No wind blowing up here yet. Just as calm as can be. Has poured out the rain though. Dont recken I heard any thunder at all. Thank goodness the storms didnt come over night.


----------



## GA DAWG

Now its blowing. Hope everyone stayed safe!


----------



## blood on the ground

Firewood Miguel?


----------



## MariettaDawg

Eerie clear and warm leaving the house this AM.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Firewood Miguel?



How many fell?


----------



## rhbama3

It was a rough night. Heard limbs come down and lost power for over 4 hours around 1am. Saw a few big limbs pulled off the road on the way to work this morning. Wife is supposed to fly out but these winds may cancel some flights.


----------



## Nicodemus

We survived the night. Hugh, many thanks for the info through all this. It got rough across God`s Country.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

rhbama3 said:


> It was a rough night. Heard limbs come down and lost power for over 4 hours around 1am. Saw a few big limbs pulled off the road on the way to work this morning. Wife is supposed to fly out but these winds may cancel some flights.





Nicodemus said:


> We survived the night. Hugh, many thanks for the info through all this. It got rough across God`s Country.



Glad y'all are here to talk about it. Reckon it blew any of them pesky gnats the next state over?


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How many fell?



None so far...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> None so far...



Well I sure ain't climbin a tree to get firewood!!


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Glad y'all are here to talk about it. Reckon it blew any of them pesky gnats the next state over?





I hope it took all them skeeters that were wrapping me up yesterday while I was in the woods down below the house. 

Looks like Albany got some flooded roads.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> I hope it took all them skeeters that were wrapping me up yesterday while I was in the woods down below the house.
> 
> Looks like Albany got some flooded roads.



If you see any damage today how bout sharing a picture or two with us.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well I sure ain't climbin a tree to get firewood!!



The day ain't over yet sir... Next one down I'm zip tying a tag on it with your name... No address though... You gots ta come pick it up!


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you see any damage today how bout sharing a picture or two with us.





I will. As bad as the lightning was around here I figured there would be dead cows everywhere. Everything looks ok so far. Checked the rain gauge and got exactly one inch. Rain was coming down horizontal a lot so we probably got a lot more than that.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> The day ain't over yet sir... Next one down I'm zip tying a tag on it with your name... No address though... You gots ta come pick it up!



I wonder what the fine is for draggin a whole tree down the road around 285?


----------



## Nicodemus

Looks like I`ve lost some shingles and if this wind keeps up some more liable to end up scattered across the neighboring plantation. It is howling here.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Tornado Warning just across the state line in Oconee County SC, just north of Clemson.


----------



## Keebs

Nicodemus said:


> Looks like I`ve lost some shingles and if this wind keeps up some more liable to end up scattered across the neighboring plantation. It is howling here.


Wind was "just" in the top of the trees this morning when I went to pen the horses up, weird......... it's really picked up since then, driving the Blazer this week and wind likes to move that thing around the road!


----------



## jbird1

Good to hear most everyone came through relatively unscathed with this system...I'll be shopping weather radio's very soon.

Now I'm gonna dust off these snow goggles and try and catch a flake or two sneaking past the flood light overnight.


----------



## NCHillbilly

All kinds of a weather smorgasbord going on here. Floods, 60mph wind gusts (not connected to storms,) severe storms, and who knows what else in the forecast. It's 60* now, but they're also calling for maybe several inches of snow for tonight through Friday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> All kinds of a weather smorgasbord going on here. Floods, 60mph wind gusts (not connected to storms,) severe storms, and who knows what else in the forecast. It's 60* now, but they're also calling for maybe several inches of snow for tonight through Friday.



Ummmm, I tried to tell you so!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ummmm, I tried to tell you so!!!



You don't have to, I already expect it around here this time of year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Gonna be plenty of pinestraw to be had after this wind is done.


----------



## hayseed_theology

Wind has really picked up here.  Looks like we had a double whammy last night.  Power surge appears to have fried several appliances. 

A limb caught the power line running to the house. Snapped the cable, but the lines themselves are still connected.  We only have partial power at the house.  Waiting on the power company to show up, then the electrician.


----------



## smokey30725

Windy and gloomy here in Dalton right now. Just saw DDD's update in the Metshack. Probably the most depressing thing I've read in a long time.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

NWS says we'll have a chance at flurries starting tonight through tomorrow.  I'm guessing it will be cold air chasing the moisture out of here and tossing in some occasional flurry activity as it passes out of the mountains.


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> Windy and gloomy here in Dalton right now. Just saw DDD's update in the Metshack. Probably the most depressing thing I've read in a long time.



It will be that much more exciting if he pops up unexpectedly with a "surprise" in the next 3-4 weeks.


----------



## DDD

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> NWS says we'll have a chance at flurries starting tonight through tomorrow.  I'm guessing it will be cold air chasing the moisture out of here and tossing in some occasional flurry activity as it passes out of the mountains.



The atmosphere is going to be "ringing out" all the left over moisture.  Someone might get under a decent band that will lay down a good dusting in the mountains but that should be about it.


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> It will be that much more exciting if he pops up unexpectedly with a "surprise" in the next 3-4 weeks.



It certainly could happen, but with what I see the cold air doing over the north pole and the northern jet stream staying north...

Not gonna happen in my opinion.  Lord knows I have been wrong this year, so maybe I will be wrong on that too.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Just had to point out, that the highest risk (dark red) portion of my map was more accurate than anything the NWS put out for this last event.

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10051357&postcount=39

Just sayin.


----------



## snookdoctor

We've come to expect nothing less.
Thank you for doing what you do to keep us on guard!


----------



## GA DAWG

Im not hallucinating dont think but I just had sleet or hail or something mixed in with rain in cumming. 43 degrees.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

60mph winds this morning and strong wind gust now.. trees down power outages and traffic lights are a mess mess. In the greater discusta ga.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Area


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Im not hallucinating dont think but I just had sleet or hail or something mixed in with rain in cumming. 43 degrees.



It's quite possible, but then those shrooms you picked could have something to do with what you're seeing too.


----------



## Resica

Tornado Watch up here till 11 tonight.


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Im not hallucinating dont think but I just had sleet or hail or something mixed in with rain in cumming. 43 degrees.



You weren't.  We had a fast small cell blast through here that had some very small hail mixed in.  Lasted a couple min and the sun came out with a rainbow.  The gusts were 35 mph


----------



## blood on the ground

One large sweet gum on the ground... That one's free to da messican!


----------



## swamppirate

Bad tornados here in Virginia. 3 dead in Waverly and widespread property damage. Pray for the ones that got hammered. Bad, bad storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

swamppirate said:


> Bad tornados here in Virginia. 3 dead in Waverly and widespread property damage. Pray for the ones that got hammered. Bad, bad storm.



Will do.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Look at this hail posted by NWS Wilmington NC. 
That'll put a sho nuff hurtin on you!!!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

I went out to the truck at around 7:30 and it was snowing a very wet snow mixed in with the rain.


----------



## DDD

Was on the phone with a sales guy in in Gainesville, GA and he lost power while I was on the phone with him.

I imagine a decent amount of power outages tonight.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Rails of deck and tops of cars are white.  Temps have fallen FAST.


----------



## DDD

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Rails of deck and tops of cars are white.  Temps have fallen FAST.



Cool!  They have the mountains under an advisory.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Sensitivity, political correctness, hand holding..........

NAWWWW, not on one of my threads......

But seriously folks, if we don't respond to your posts it's nothing personal against you, especially when it's past the prime of the storm where we're relaxing and riding out the backside of it after spending endless hours watching and talking about it in the heat of the moment. 

We just wanna kick back and kid a little bit, release some of the tension from the seriousness of the moment while it was happening. Sometimes we fail to remember, it is still happening downstream away from our Ga. peeps. And for that I apologize. 

But if we don't respond to your post right away, or even later, it is definitely not intentional. 

Now, go get a kleenex and wipe that snot off from your upper lip.


----------



## jbird1

I'm liking the wording being used in MC's last MET Shack post...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> I'm liking the wording being used in MC's last MET Shack post...



See!!! I knew some of you were ticklish.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> See!!! I knew some of you were ticklish.



It's like analyzing the Fed's statement..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> It's like analyzing the Fed's statement..


You like Crappie fishing too huh?


----------



## DDD

As bad as I want winter to make a surprise visit, it's not going to happen.  There is no cold air until the system is already over Bermuda and even then 2mm temps are in the mid 30's.

The system loses steam as it comes over GA but back over Mississippi it looks rough around Tuesday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> As bad as I want winter to make a surprise visit, it's not going to happen.  There is no cold air until the system is already over Bermuda and even then 2mm temps are in the mid 30's.
> 
> The system loses steam as it comes over GA but back over Mississippi it looks rough around Tuesday.



Ye of so little faith. I'm tryin to help you here man. If you're gonna die, do it with dignity!

I mean, you have to admit this looks yummy!!! Even if it is totally unreal. The EURO is losing it's marbles.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> As bad as I want winter to make a surprise visit, it's not going to happen.  There is no cold air until the system is already over Bermuda and even then 2mm temps are in the mid 30's.
> 
> The system loses steam as it comes over GA but back over Mississippi it looks rough around Tuesday.



You educated me about forecasting cold and said it was just as hard as precip. to forecast....


----------



## hmaddox

DDD said:


> As bad as I want winter to make a surprise visit, it's not going to happen.  There is no cold air until the system is already over Bermuda and even then 2mm temps are in the mid 30's.
> 
> The system loses steam as it comes over GA but back over Mississippi it looks rough around Tuesday.



Many are asking - is winter a bust at this point for snow?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> You educated me about forecasting cold and said it was just as hard as precip. to forecast....


Winter precip, not severe weathe precip. 


hmaddox said:


> Many are asking - is winter a bust at this point for snow?



Many who? where?


----------



## smokey30725

I'm clinging to the shred of hope that winter has something still in store for us.


----------



## DDD

hmaddox said:


> Many are asking - is winter a bust at this point for snow?



http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=865230

Post #19 should answer it.


----------



## NCHillbilly

It is snowing here right now. Sideways.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> It is snowing here right now. Sideways.



Make sure to keep your arms down. Frozen armpits are painful.........................I hear.


----------



## NCHillbilly




----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

We've just been placed under an advisory with a potential 1-3" tonight.  It's flurried lightly pretty much all day.


----------



## smokey30725

I made a separate thread for the GON weatherman annual fundraiser. Check it out and give till it hurts.


----------



## jbird1

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> We've just been placed under an advisory with a potential 1-3" tonight.  It's flurried lightly pretty much all day.



Sweet!


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Weather looks easy til the first of the month. I'll be posting ground reports come the first weekendof March. Let's  hope it's and easy storm. We had some kids hurt in the central savanah river area this week.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

http://www.wrdw.com/home/headlines/...into-two-cars-370040851.html?device=phone&c=y

http://www.wrdw.com/home/headlines/...entary-school-370186101.html?device=phone&c=y

The reason why we need to stay ahead of the weather.


----------



## bigelow

I don t know much bout the weather just when I walk outside


----------



## smokey30725

Oddly enough, we have a little frozen precipitation falling in Flintstone right now.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I feel we need to know what's coming and be prepared. Local mets only provide the day of the tragic weather. Here we can see it days ahead.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Migmack said:


> I feel we need to know what's coming and be prepared. Local mets only provide the day of the tragic weather. Here we can see it days ahead.



Your local meteorologists don't forecast weekly weather?
What channel and city are they on?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

New March Severe Wx thread started in the Met Shack.


Have a looksee.


----------



## 3ringer

I must have missed something. Where is the met shack ?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

3ringer said:


> I must have missed something. Where is the met shack ?



Sub forum on top of Around the Campfire forum page.

http://forum.gon.com/forumdisplay.php?f=159


----------



## 3ringer

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sub forum on top of Around the Campfire forum page.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/forumdisplay.php?f=159



Thanks , It must be my old age . I couldn't find it .


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Your local meteorologists don't forecast weekly weather?
> What channel and city are they on?



Augusta... We get pics of sun, clouds, rain, and lighting bolts with rain.


----------



## PappyHoel

Migmack said:


> Augusta... We get pics of sun, clouds, rain, and lighting bolts with rain.



Thats why you are important in this discussion.  We need your ground truth.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Migmack said:


> Augusta... We get pics of sun, clouds, rain, and lighting bolts with rain.



Don't go out fishing on the days when they show pichers of rain with lightning bolts.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> Don't go out fishing on the days when they show pichers of rain with lightning bolts.



NCHillbilly is wise beyond his years.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

NCHillbilly said:


> Don't go out fishing on the days when they show pichers of rain with lightning bolts.



Great advice!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Don't go out fishing on the days when they show pichers of rain with lightning bolts.



You know, they always say don't go in the water when it's lightning. But think of all them fish in the water when it's lightning. Don't seem to bother them much attall.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You know, they always say don't go in the water when it's lightning. But think of all them fish in the water when it's lightning. Don't seem to bother them much attall.



They also say not to go swimming right after eating, but fish do it all the time.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> They also say not to go swimming right after eating, but fish do it all the time.



Yeah, and they get sore lipped, especially if they are bigoted against Mexicans.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nothing much changed on the models for next weeks event. Will look at this evenings products and see if that is constant.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nothing much changed on the models for next weeks event. Will look at this evenings products and see if that is constant.



Is that a good thing? I know my local apps aren't showing anything but rain for NW Georgia.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Is that a good thing? I know my local apps aren't showing anything but rain for NW Georgia.



Depends on whether you like the last prediction I gave, complete with maps n such.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You know, they always say don't go in the water when it's lightning. But think of all them fish in the water when it's lightning. Don't seem to bother them much attall.



Could be that the fish can fin for themselves.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> Could be that the fish can fin for themselves.


----------



## Greene728

gobbleinwoods said:


> Could be that the fish can fin for themselves.


----------



## Patriot44

Weather threads used to be cool.  That's All.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Patriot44 said:


> Weather threads used to be cool.  That's All.



They still are. 

The update for March 2-3rd low pressure system & weather is up on the Met Shack now. Have a look!


----------



## GA DAWG

Snow?


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They still are.
> 
> The update for March 2-3rd low pressure system & weather is up on the Met Shack now. Have a look!



Oh, I thought that said the The Meth Shack. Ill check it out...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Snow?



She hasn't posted in a long time.


----------



## spydermon

Are we fixing to dry up?  The rains seem to be going away..or am I wrong?  Mainly for s.e. ga


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> Are we fixing to dry up?  The rains seem to be going away..or am I wrong?  Mainly for s.e. ga



You havent read the latest duscusdion in the Met Shack have you?


----------



## nickel back

The met shack is a boring place to visit. There  really is no  discussion going on in that part of the forum.......very good info though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> The met shack is a boring place to visit. There  really is no  discussion going on in that part of the forum.......very good info though.


That was the whole point of it. There was a lot of "not on topic" banter the way it was previously set up and for folks to see what DDD or I were saying (ie disussion) about the weather one had to sift through pages of non-sense. 

Now you have this thread for everyone to ask questions, discuss, or even insert useless banter into AFTER going to the Met Shack and reading what our projections / discussions were regarding the upcoming weather events. 

We won't however, post it there, and then repeat it here. That would be redundant and pointless. 

If you so desire we could do away with this thread though.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That was the whole point of it. There was a lot of "not on topic" banter the way it was previously set up and for folks to see what DDD or I were saying (ie disussion) about the weather one had to sift through pages of non-sense.
> 
> Now you have this thread for everyone to ask questions, discuss, or even insert useless banter into AFTER going to the Met Shack and reading what our projections / discussions were regarding the upcoming weather events.
> 
> We won't however, post it there, and then repeat it here. That would be redundant and pointless.
> 
> If you so desire we could do away with this thread though.



could care less if it went away


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> could care less if it went away



Then stop visiting it. 

Morning folks, there is an update to the March severe weather page in the Met Shack you might want to take a look at.


----------



## blood on the ground

Before this post is deleted I'd like to say thanks for the update Miguel!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Before this post is deleted I'd like to say thanks for the update Miguel!



You get that sweetgum all cut up?


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You get that sweetgum all cut up?



Sawed it up in sections and pushed it down in the woods with the tractor. That wood is worthless!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Sawed it up in sections and pushed it down in the woods with the tractor. That wood is worthless!



It may be hard to work because of how dense it is, but it dang sure makes some purty furniture.

From this site: http://www.foresttofurniture.net/furniture


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It may be hard to work because of how dense it is, but it dang sure makes some purty furniture.
> 
> From this site: http://www.foresttofurniture.net/furniture



That is nice!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> That is nice!



See, you just rolled a new table for yo ma-n-law down da hill!!


----------



## smokey30725

Just a reminder that our fundraiser for DDD is up and going and has a thread dedicated to it.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> See, you just rolled a new table for yo ma-n-law down da hill!!



Why you gotta kick a man after a long night of werk?

Its baseball season you big dummies, so rain, rain, stay away!!!!


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=865230 Post #20 DDD keepin the faith!


----------



## blood on the ground

Patriot44 said:


> Why you gotta kick a man after a long night of werk?
> 
> Its baseball season you big dummies, so rain, rain, stay away!!!!


That's right... Thanks brother


----------



## jbird1




----------



## Patriot44

blood on the ground said:


> That's right... Thanks brother



We gotta stick together.  These weather dudes are grumpaaaaaay lately.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

ChrisLakeCountry said:


> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=865230 Post #20 DDD keepin the faith!



They haven't even noticed.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They haven't even noticed.



That's because we were reading it in the shack.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

You N. Ga. (as in north of I-20) folks might want to check out the unexpected update to the severe weather thread in the MS. The BMX map was used because they tend to produce such information way before PTC ever thinks about it.


----------



## GA DAWG

I do not like that update. No cad to help us this go round.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I do not like that update. No cad to help us this go round.



Nope, and it's an over nighter. Should get interesting. 

I should tell Blood on the Ground to get his lawn chair and cooler ready.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, and it's an over nighter. Should get interesting.
> 
> I should tell Blood on the Ground to get his lawn chair and cooler ready.



 got it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> got it!



Don't dilly dally round neither. It's gonna come through pretty quick, IMHO (not counting the earlier showers of course)


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD's post in the shack is akin to Lucy teeing up the ball and hoping Charlie Brown will try once again to kick it.


----------



## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD's post in the shack is akin to Lucy teeing up the ball and hoping Charlie Brown will try once again to kick it.



I agree. The weather gods saw that and then mocked DDD in a cruel manner while kicking his dog.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I agree. The weather gods saw that and then mocked DDD in a cruel manner while kicking his dog.



I don't recollect I've ever heard him talk about a dog.  Maybe that's his problem. 

I have two.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all stick close to your weather radios folks.

Watching some strong cells moving through Cedartown, Rockmart, Euharlee Ga. area with the potential to go vertical at a moments notice (bounce n go) 

Also a strong cell moving through Talledega Al. 

Just watched a cell that didn't last but a couple of minutes if that move out of Jefferson County into Shelby County Al and when tornadic then disappeared. That's how Bounce n Go Tornado's work. They don't have the dynamic support to sustain a long track, but when the horizontal rotation goes vertical they usually drop and just as fast disappear. Usually an EF-1 or EF-0 but still capable of ruining your day and your property. 

Keep your ears peeled.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Heads up W. Ga folks. This is heading your way. 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2016-O-NEW-KBMX-TO-W-0013/USCOMP-N0Q-201603020040


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

A good bit of damage near McCalla Al. / McAdory area.


----------



## PappyHoel

A few mini boomers just came through Dawsonville area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes




----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Pelham Al. earlier this afternoon.


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pelham Al. earlier this afternoon.



Is that a nader or just a front?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Is that a nader or just a front?



That's looking back to their west at the tornado in McCalla


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's looking back to their west at the tornado in McCalla



That's Yuge


----------



## Lindseys Grandpa

Fixing to get interesting in Coweta


----------



## Miguel Cervantes




----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Gotta sign off for the night do some family time stuff.

Y'all keep your ears and eyes on the local mets and stay safe.


----------



## spydermon

Visuals is good!  

Plain unedumacated words would be nice too.  Like this..."it's gonna on (enter day)


----------



## smokey30725

Got family in Mccalla and just talked to them. The worst of it hit a couple miles down the road from them and they are OK. Thank you Lord!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> Visuals is good!
> 
> Plain unedumacated words would be nice too.  Like this..."it's gonna on (enter day)



You need to go to the Met Shack in the Around the Campfire Sub-forum for that info.



smokey30725 said:


> Got family in Mccalla and just talked to them. The worst of it hit a couple miles down the road from them and they are OK. Thank you Lord!


Glad your family is ok. Glad that system is gone and we're on to spring showers and warmer temps. 

Everyone have a great day.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

It seemed quiet around the 'Ford last night. Some rain, some wind, a couple good booms and flashes, but nothing crazy.


----------



## Greene728

Very good post in the MS this morning MC! Thanks for what you do. And if folks have problems follow along as well as you simplify things then they are probably unreachable any ways!
Keep up the good work brother!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

WSB on Twitter reporting flurries over Union County.

Anybody on here can ground truth that?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Tsunami warnings issued in relation to this quake. 

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004u1y#general_region


----------



## Lindseys Grandpa

I sat there last night wondering if i would be going to bed or work. Got to go to bed which is a good thing. I have been in rock throwing distance of 3 tornado's no fun at all. I realize that long range forecasting is a educated guess at best.
 I watch this forum and other sources to get a idea and then when the event gets closer i watch the radar. Based on wind direction i know what part of Alabama our weather is coming from and basically how long it takes to arrive. I to appreciate what the forecasters on this forum do.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Woke up to rattling windows last night.. No damage around the CSRA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Migmack said:


> Woke up to rattling windows last night.. No damage around the CSRA.



Glad to hear it. That wind got fierce in some areas.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Great post in the Shack, Miggy.  Thanks for all you do!


----------



## smokey30725

I still want snow!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> I still want snow!



Head north.


----------



## NCHillbilly

smokey30725 said:


> I still want snow!



Come get some of ours, I'm getting tired of it and ready for spring. It was snowing this morning, and is supposed to snow maybe several inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'd like to see just one week without snow myself at this point, we haven't had one since about Christmas.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> Come get some of ours, I'm getting tired of it and ready for spring. It was snowing this morning, and is supposed to snow maybe several inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'd like to see just one week without snow myself at this point, we haven't had one since about Christmas.



I would if I could. Both of my kids and I were covered up with mosquito bites after this last weekend. Ugh.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

NCHillbilly said:


> Come get some of ours, I'm getting tired of it and ready for spring. It was snowing this morning, and is supposed to snow maybe several inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'd like to see just one week without snow myself at this point, we haven't had one since about Christmas.



In all seriousness, as much as you claim to hate snow I'm surprised you still live in an area that gets so much of it.


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> In all seriousness, as much as you claim to hate snow I'm surprised you still live in an area that gets so much of it.



nothing worse than a ornery old snow hoarder.


----------



## NCHillbilly

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> In all seriousness, as much as you claim to hate snow I'm surprised you still live in an area that gets so much of it.



Because I love the area I live in. The brutal winters are one of the few things I like less as I get older, I guess. But the spring, summer and fall here makes up for it. I like snow in small doses, used to love it, actually. I wouldn't mind it at all if I didn't have to get out and drive through forty miles of idiots in it every morning it snows. It's good for awhile but after snow at least twice a week all winter (which starts about early November here well then, Spring, warm weather, fishing, camping, and things growing again starts sounding like a good idea and is something to look forward to.

The inverse is true too-why would people who absolutely love snow and wish for it all the time and hate warm weather not all move to Minnesota or the Yukon territories?


----------



## NCHillbilly

smokey30725 said:


> nothing worse than a ornery old snow hoarder.



It's all mine, I tell you. I scrape it up and store it in large freezers.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> It's all mine, I tell you. I scrape it up and store it in large freezers.



Hittin the whiskey early I see.


----------



## NCHillbilly

You ain't brought it to me yet. Don't forget the briskets when you come, either.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> It's all mine, I tell you. I scrape it up and store it in large freezers.



your arrogance shall be your downfall, great hoarder of snow.


----------



## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> Come get some of ours, I'm getting tired of it and ready for spring. It was snowing this morning, and is supposed to snow maybe several inches tomorrow and tomorrow night. I'd like to see just one week without snow myself at this point, we haven't had one since about Christmas.


How much snow have you received this winter NC?


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> How much snow have you received this winter NC?



probably not as much as you


----------



## GA DAWG

Is DDD still thinking northeast ga may get some?


----------



## NCHillbilly

Resica said:


> How much snow have you received this winter NC?



Not nearly as much as we usually do, actually. We've gotten snow a couple nights a week, but it's mostly been small nuisance amounts-just enough to get the roads slick and snarl everything up. We got one snow that was a foot-two feet or more depending on where you were, and a few 2"=4" snows, and a plethora of 1" and less snows. We've gotten more rain and less snow than an average year. Been averaging a couple white mornings a week, though.


----------



## ryork

Has been pouring sleet here in the 30110 for the last 15-20 minutes at the onset of the precip. Temp is at 42 degrees. Will transition to rain any second I assume, but for a bit was some of the biggest sleet pellets I've seen in a while.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

ryork said:


> Has been pouring sleet here in the 30110 for the last 15-20 minutes at the onset of the precip. Temp is at 42 degrees. Will transition to rain any second I assume, but for a bit was some of the biggest sleet pellets I've seen in a while.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

NCHillbilly said:


> Because I love the area I live in. The brutal winters are one of the few things I like less as I get older, I guess. But the spring, summer and fall here makes up for it. I like snow in small doses, used to love it, actually. I wouldn't mind it at all if I didn't have to get out and drive through forty miles of idiots in it every morning it snows. It's good for awhile but after snow at least twice a week all winter (which starts about early November here well then, Spring, warm weather, fishing, camping, and things growing again starts sounding like a good idea and is something to look forward to.
> 
> The inverse is true too-why would people who absolutely love snow and wish for it all the time and hate warm weather not all move to Minnesota or the Yukon territories?



'Tis a good kwestun. 

I like the snow in small doses that disappear in a few hours or days at most. That's what keeps me here. That, and I love being as close as I am to a really good striper lake.


----------



## ryork

A guy that works for me was heading from our office in Carrollton to Summerville and said the rain changed to big wet flakes of snow as he crossed Taylor Ridge just south of Summerville a little bit ago.  More rain than sleet here now, but still some big pellets bouncing off everything as well.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

ryork said:


> A guy that works for me was heading from our office in Carrollton to Summerville and said the rain changed to big wet flakes of snow as he crossed Taylor Ridge just south of Summerville a little bit ago.  More rain than sleet here now, but still some big pellets bouncing off everything as well.



Good information. Thanks for sharing.


----------



## Jeetdawg

Nice big flakes mixing in with the rain north of Cartersville.  Just had a rumble of thunder while the flakes were falling.  Do I get to jump around like Jim Cantore and call it thunder snow


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Jeetdawg said:


> Nice big flakes mixing in with the rain north of Cartersville.  Just had a rumble of thunder while the flakes were falling.  Do I get to jump around like Jim Cantore and call it thunder snow



If you do we require video evidence..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Video's and Pics of snow in N. Ga starting to roll in on Twitter.


----------



## smokey30725

Snowing in Dalton as well.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Snowing in Dalton as well.



Don't you people have cameras on your phones!!!


----------



## Jim Ammons

Been snowing heavy flakes for a hour at the "Hide Away" on Dick Ridge west of Rocky Face, GA.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Winter weather advisory here.


----------



## ryork

*Still Sleeting Hard*

Down to 36 degrees and absolutely pouring sleet. A few flakes will mix in at times. Photo of our extra vehicle parked in front of the garage. Since that photo was taken about fifteen minutes ago it picked up and now the deck is covered and crunchy and the mulch beds and woods around the house are starting to turn a pale shade of white.  Crazy, man if it were just a tad colder this would be a mess!

DDD, I do believe you mentioned this possibility a few days ago. Nobody else did.


----------



## mark-7mag

Wow! Sleeting in Acworth


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't you people have cameras on your phones!!!



yes, but mine takes sorry pictures. we know that you have probably have a super duper jumbo pixel weather warrior handheld satellite linked micro supercomputer phone, being as you are a senior GON weather prognosticator and all.


----------



## GA DAWG

Sleeting like crazy in southwest Dawson co.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> yes, but mine takes sorry pictures. we know that you have probably have a super duper jumbo pixel weather warrior handheld satellite linked micro supercomputer phone, being as you are a senior GON weather prognosticator and all.



I couldn't even pronounce all of that...


----------



## Matthew6

snowing well at brasstown bald on the resort cam i just looked at.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Snowing in Rome


----------



## doenightmare

46' and dry in Roswell. Getting dark and some rumbles of thunder to the NW.


----------



## Matthew6

doenightmare said:


> 46' and dry in Roswell. Getting dark and some rumbles of thunder to the NW.



thanks for the update. on my way to roswell.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Snowing in Canton.


----------



## smokey30725

coming down heavy now.


----------



## DDD

2mm temps are way to warm.  NAM had this happening but I made no mention because surface temps are in the 40's


----------



## 3ringer

Sleet mixed with rain near the airport at 40 degrees. The temp has dropped 7 degrees in the last two hours.


----------



## Paymaster

Cold here in Ephesus and raining. 38* on my porch thermometer.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

36 and snowing for the last hour in Bville.


----------



## doenightmare

Still in the 40's but a rain/sleet mix now.


----------



## GA DAWG

Coming a blizzard here now.


----------



## jbird1

Well I'll be....a 43 degree snow...crazy.


----------



## PappyHoel

Yeah my wife just texted the same thing.  It's snowing in Gainesville


----------



## Wade Chandler

Pouring down snow in Dahlonega, finally starting to stick to the grass a little.  Probably snowed close to an inch just to get a dusting.


----------



## jbird1

If this had fallen overnight it would have really been something.


----------



## Backlasher82

38 and pretty heavy snow in Rabun, it's starting to stick too.


----------



## jbird1

Ok it's starting to stick to elevated surfaces and grass...down to 39 degrees w/ moderate to heavy snow...


----------



## DDD

Now getting a little more serious.  Mountain roads becoming slick and bad.  Seeing things on Twitter.


----------



## DDD

If you follow me on Twitter I am retweeting pics and video from DahlonegaWx.  Known him for a while and he rarely post too much, but the ground is white up there and just coming down.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Light rain with sleet pellets and the occasional flake mixed in here in Duluth right now.


----------



## Backlasher82

DDD said:


> Now getting a little more serious.  Mountain roads becoming slick and bad.  Seeing things on Twitter.



Yeah, the "rain shower" that Weather.com says we're getting right now at my house looks an awful lot like snow to me, but I'm no meteorologist.


----------



## Da Possum

rain here.  hope this helps.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Backlasher82 said:


> Yeah, the "rain shower" that Weather.com says we're getting right now at my house looks an awful lot like snow to me, but I'm no meteorologist.



It's just crunchy rain, like the peanut butter.


----------



## JonathanG2013

34 and snow in Canton but not sticking.

DDD do you think the temps will drop below freezing and this possibly becoming a dusting this evening?


----------



## hmaddox

There is snow about 35 mile north of ATL now!


----------



## GA DAWG

My cousin took this in Nelson just a little bit ago.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> 34 and snow in Canton but not sticking.
> 
> DDD do you think the temps will drop below freezing and this possibly becoming a dusting this evening?



I think the higher elevations have the best shot at getting below freezing.  Outside of the mountains it's not going to happen.


----------



## coilee

Rain sleet and snow in Johns creek. Ice build up on windshield.


----------



## GA DAWG

Fate conn rd in north Cherokee co from Sheriff office.


----------



## Backlasher82

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> It's just crunchy rain, like the peanut butter.



I just drove down to the mailbox, that crunchy rain is sticking to the roads too.


----------



## mguthrie

Getting sleet pellets south of I 20 in conyers. I was one that thought winter was over


----------



## GA DAWG

Its getting rough fairly quick.  Pappy you best head home!


----------



## DDD

This just shows you that it can be above freezing and have accumulating snow / sleet.  If it falls hard enough and fast enough.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Just rain Here in Woodstock. Had a little bit of ice pellets earlier though


----------



## chocolate dog

The tv mets TOTALLY blew this one!   No way that dude in the Vette is out in this mess had it been forecasted!   They said 48 and rain for here in jasper up until an hour or so ago   Now they crawfishin like crazy.    Yeah this on the mountain but we have this much in town too!


----------



## parisinthe20s

Wow. Wish we had that snow by me. All we have is rain and more rain


----------



## chocolate dog

.....


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Its getting rough fairly quick.  Pappy you best head home!



I have a meeting at 330 ain't gonna happen


----------



## jbird1

PappyHoel said:


> I have a meeting at 330 ain't gonna happen



You'll be good...roads are just wet here.


----------



## DDD

chocolate dog said:


> .....



PM Sent.


----------



## spydermon

hey cuz, the weather thing is sweet and keeps us up with whats coming....but this, "Here are the 850mb tmp/slp map and the 850mb wind map, both from the EURO"...man this is greek to me.  I aint got da smartz to know what all that means.  put all that fancy weather talk into redneck language and we b ok.  all I can get out of that is something is gonna happen march 9.  the visuals are nice


----------



## chocolate dog

DDD said:


> PM Sent.



returned


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> hey cuz, the weather thing is sweet and keeps us up with whats coming....but this, "Here are the 850mb tmp/slp map and the 850mb wind map, both from the EURO"...man this is greek to me.  I aint got da smartz to know what all that means.  put all that fancy weather talk into redneck language and we b ok.  all I can get out of that is something is gonna happen march 9.  the visuals are nice


And because it is so many days out that is all you are going to get. Thus the closing statements that it bears watching.

When it becomes a system of identifiable concern and timing that is within a projectable period of reliability then I will and have put my thoughts into plain language for all to understand. 

Cuz.


----------



## Jeff Phillips

spydermon said:


> hey cuz, the weather thing is sweet and keeps us up with whats coming....but this, "Here are the 850mb tmp/slp map and the 850mb wind map, both from the EURO"...man this is greek to me.  I aint got da smartz to know what all that means.  put all that fancy weather talk into redneck language and we b ok.  all I can get out of that is something is gonna happen march 9.  the visuals are nice



You sound like a Weather Rock kind of guy!

$19.99 +S&H

Let me know how many you need.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Lumpkin County schools out early today. 

Oh, and that's a steal on a Weather Rock.


----------



## Dana Young

*currently in Clarkesville*

this was at 20 after 4


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Snowing at the i85 line


----------



## SGADawg

73 degrees and sunny in Coffee Co!


----------



## Da Possum

no sun here


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

64 Wind and rain in the csra 100 miles north snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Clermont Ga.


----------



## blood on the ground

Ain't got nothing but rain in the 30132!


----------



## elfiii

Jus srainin in 3 double naught 2 4.


----------



## Mountainbuck

So is it over now


----------



## Mountainbuck

So is it over now:-(


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> probably not as much as you



Had 40 1/4 up here, but 30 came in one storm. Winter Weather Advisory tonight and tomorrow morn.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mountainbuck said:


> So is it over now



Yes



Mountainbuck said:


> So is it over now:-(



Yes


----------



## swamppirate

Got about a inch of wet snow here in Hanover, VA. It'll be gone by noon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

swamppirate said:


> Got about a inch of wet snow here in Hanover, VA. It'll be gone by noon.



Nice Colonial Garden.


----------



## swamppirate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nice Colonial Garden.



Thanks! It will be grass cuttin' time soon enuf....


----------



## DDD

swamppirate said:


> Got about a inch of wet snow here in Hanover, VA. It'll be gone by noon.



Great picture!!!


----------



## smokey30725

Are we to assume that was winter's last hurrah?


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> Are we to assume that was winter's last hurrah?



March 24, 1983.

There's still a miniscule chance.


----------



## GA DAWG

Yeah yall can wrap the ol winter stuff up
 Im pretty sure its over till bout next Jan. Right???


----------



## MariettaDawg

swamppirate said:


> Thanks! It will be grass cuttin' time soon enuf....



My weeds have bolted with all this warm weather.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Yeah yall can wrap the ol winter stuff up
> Im pretty sure its over till bout next Jan. Right???



I am about 98% sure it's time to get your turkey calls out.


----------



## DDD

DDD said:


> I am about 98% sure it's time to get your turkey calls out.



Home Depot sells weed and feed or you can burn your yard tomorrow, be a good day for it after the wind had blown it dry today along with the sun.


----------



## chocolate dog

jbird1 said:


> March 24, 1983.
> 
> There's still a miniscule chance.



Or March 13 1993.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

DDD said:


> Just so everyone is clear, if you are a true weather junkie and you eat, sleep and breath winter weather or severe weather, or heck, just wild weather like we had yesterday, you have not "Looked at a map in weeks".   The only model that had yesterday happening like it did was the NAM and I, along with everyone else in the weather world dismissed it because it was the only one that had it.  I thought it was drunk and I made 0 mention of it, but low and behold it nailed it.  Was I surprised?  100% for sure, but I didn't just say to you guys, "Check your local weather."
> 
> Plus, can you imagine if I or Miguel said, hey guys, "Check your local weather"  Wow... ummm...ok...
> 
> Nope.  You don't have a clue what's going on because your source got tired of you copying and pasting so you are reduced to "Check your local weather".  Dang man, that stinks huh?
> 
> So, just for reference, this is not a group you want to follow, however I do now, for strictly the entertainment value and to make sure my work has not ended up on some secret weather society's, secret Facebook page.
> 
> For the record, I give full credit to Todd Cosper for this up to date weather report from yesterday.  I don't want him thinking I copied and pasted without giving credit to him.


----------



## GA DAWG

DDD said:


> I am about 98% sure it's time to get your turkey calls out.


They done out. I was turkey looking when this stuff hit yesterday


----------



## smokey30725

DDD's throwin' down!

(Pssst...hey Todd)


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Who knew the weather could be so dramatic?

"Next up on the Weather Channel, Todd and DDD duke it out for the Winter Weather Guru Heavyweight Title!"


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Who knew the weather could be so dramatic?
> 
> "Next up on the Weather Channel, Todd and DDD duke it out for the Winter Weather Guru Heavyweight Title!"



yup


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Who knew the weather could be so dramatic?
> 
> "Next up on the Weather Channel, Todd and DDD duke it out for the Winter Weather Guru Heavyweight Title!"



No comment on the weight, DDD is sensitive about that,  but I can assure you if you're a true weather geek, looking at a map is almost a daily occurrence and multiple times a day on a good event. I suspect knowing what you're looking at does come into play though.


----------



## GA DAWG

I look on here at the weather discussion Daily.


----------



## lbzdually

DDD said:


> Just so everyone is clear, if you are a true weather junkie and you eat, sleep and breath winter weather or severe weather, or heck, just wild weather like we had yesterday, you have not "Looked at a map in weeks".   The only model that had yesterday happening like it did was the NAM and I, along with everyone else in the weather world dismissed it because it was the only one that had it.  I thought it was drunk and I made 0 mention of it, but low and behold it nailed it.  Was I surprised?  100% for sure, but I didn't just say to you guys, "Check your local weather."
> 
> Plus, can you imagine if I or Miguel said, hey guys, "Check your local weather"  Wow... ummm...ok...
> 
> Nope.  You don't have a clue what's going on because your source got tired of you copying and pasting so you are reduced to "Check your local weather".  Dang man, that stinks huh?
> 
> So, just for reference, this is not a group you want to follow, however I do now, for strictly the entertainment value and to make sure my work has not ended up on some secret weather society's, secret Facebook page.
> 
> For the record, I give full credit to Todd Cosper for this up to date weather report from yesterday.  I don't want him thinking I copied and pasted without giving credit to him.



Did we ever figure out what his username was here?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

This will be massively huge if it proves out.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...does-2-3-weeks-in-advance-20160304-story.html


----------



## blood on the ground

I'm confused again!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> I'm confused again!!



About?


----------



## crackerdave

DDD said:


> Home Depot sells weed and feed or you can burn your yard tomorrow, be a good day for it after the wind had blown it dry today along with the sun.



You might be a redneck if you burn instead of mow.


----------



## Greene728

Breaking news in the MS....
DDD said "Winter is done...CLOSED"!



Bring on top water plugs, crappie jigs, swimming trunks, camper and pontoon boat,etc.!

Flame away Smokey!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> Breaking news in the MS....
> DDD said "Winter is done...CLOSED"!
> 
> 
> 
> Bring on top water plugs, crappie jigs, swimming trunks, camper and pontoon boat,etc.!
> 
> Flame away Smokey!


----------



## blood on the ground

Greene728 said:


> Breaking news in the MS....
> DDD said "Winter is done...CLOSED"!
> 
> 
> 
> Bring on top water plugs, crappie jigs, swimming trunks, camper and pontoon boat,etc.!
> 
> Flame away Smokey!





Miguel Cervantes said:


>


 stop celebrating Idjits...


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No comment on the weight, DDD is sensitive about that,  but I can assure you if you're a true weather geek, looking at a map is almost a daily occurrence and multiple times a day on a good event. I suspect knowing what you're looking at does come into play though.



It should, but that doesn't mean much these days. 

Brang on da Sprang!


----------



## DDD

I did not want to put this in the Severe Wx Thread because it's nothing to do with Severe Wx, but the main rain maker for Georgia looks to come in Sunday.  There will be some light showers on Saturday but mainly heavier stuff on Sunday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> stop celebrating Idjits...



I though celebrating idjits was what this place was about, especially in the sports and political forums.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I though celebrating idjits was what this place was about, especially in the sports and political forums.



 I guess you are right bro...


----------



## smokey30725

Greene728 said:


> Breaking news in the MS....
> DDD said "Winter is done...CLOSED"!
> 
> 
> 
> Bring on top water plugs, crappie jigs, swimming trunks, camper and pontoon boat,etc.!
> 
> Flame away Smokey!



Oh, don't worry, I spent most of the weekend working on my grandparent's house, sweating profusely and swatting away flies and mosquitos and something is blooming that's making us all allergic. Happy days.


----------



## NCHillbilly

smokey30725 said:


> Oh, don't worry, I spent most of the weekend working on my grandparent's house, sweating profusely and swatting away flies and mosquitos and something is blooming that's making us all allergic. Happy days.



Smokey=Eskimo that was secretly adopted as a baby.


----------



## smokey30725

NCHillbilly said:


> Smokey=Eskimo that was secretly adopted as a baby.



Well, on my mother's side I am quite the mix. My grandfather is Puerto Rican and my grandmother is German. On dad's side it's just poor southern as far back as we can research. I'm a mixed up individual.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Smokey=Eskimo that was secretly adopted as a baby.





smokey30725 said:


> Well, on my mother's side I am quite the mix. My grandfather is Puerto Rican and my grandmother is German. On dad's side it's just poor southern as far back as we can research. I'm a mixed up individual.



Can you change his name to Heinz 57


----------



## PappyHoel

I can report ground truth in 30534, it was a beautiful evening.


----------



## Resica

Greene728 said:


> Breaking news in the MS....
> DDD said "Winter is done...CLOSED"!
> 
> 
> 
> Bring on top water plugs, crappie jigs, swimming trunks, camper and pontoon boat,etc.!
> 
> Flame away Smokey!



Does it ever really open? Just sayin


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

*From the WJ Page this morning*

Mornin Weather Junkies. 

Man I wouldn't want to be those folks in Tx. Ak, La, or Ms. They are gonna continue to get a ton of rain the next few days. 

For us in Georgia? We'll see some rain move in Friday morning, but nothing major and it won't last. The main body of the rain doesn't really reach us til' Sunday and by then it's about used up. We won't see any amounts near the magnitude they are getting to our west. 

Enjoy your day.


----------



## jbird1

^^

Sounds like Saturday may be serviceable...thanks for the update.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I definitely need more coffee. I read the title of this thread 3 times before I got "popper" out of that word. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=839737


----------



## GA DAWG

Is it gonna frost anymore?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Is it gonna frost anymore?



Generally we don't consider ourselves out of danger of frost until after April 15th. Some go by Easter instead, but this year that's a little early.


----------



## smokey30725

Wouldn't surprise me to see 90 degrees and 100 percent humidity by the end of the month. Local temps showing low to mid 80s next week. Oh happy day.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Generally we don't consider ourselves out of danger of frost until after April 15th. Some go by Easter instead, but this year that's a little early.



May 10th is the average last frost date here. Not unusual to get them later than that, though.


----------



## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> May 10th is the average last frost date here. Not unusual to get them later than that, though.



Here too.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Wouldn't surprise me to see 90 degrees and 100 percent humidity by the end of the month. Local temps showing low to mid 80s next week. Oh happy day.



Just for you Smokey.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...Japanese-unveil-air-conditioned-trousers.html


----------



## spydermon

Doesn't look like we're gonna much out of the system west of us.  Looking like the rains are further apart as predicted now and may be going to dry out as had also been predicted


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just for you Smokey.
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...Japanese-unveil-air-conditioned-trousers.html



Where have you been my whole life?????


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> Doesn't look like we're gonna much out of the system west of us.  Looking like the rains are further apart as predicted now and may be going to dry out as had also been predicted



Please share with us "who" has predicted this? 

Yes the winter pattern is typically wetter, this winter was exceptionally wetter. No, we are not drying out (deja vu) 
The high off of the NC coast is typical of an August pattern and at that point in time is typically called a Bermuda High that dominates our area to keep us a little dryer, but it isn't going to last and soon we will be back into a 5 to 7 day cycle of rain with totals anywhere from 3/4" up to 2" locally, depending on where you are. 

If that cycle falls on the weekend, with Turkey Season coming up for us here in Ga. We are all blaming you for the Negative Nellie / Murphy's Law jinx on our weather.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Where have you been my whole life?????



That depends on when your whole life started.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Please share with us "who" has predicted this?
> 
> Yes the winter pattern is typically wetter, this winter was exceptionally wetter. No, we are not drying out (deja vu)
> The high off of the NC coast is typical of an August pattern and at that point in time is typically called a Bermuda High that dominates our area to keep us a little dryer, but it isn't going to last and soon we will be back into a 5 to 7 day cycle of rain with totals anywhere from 3/4" up to 2" locally, depending on where you are.
> 
> If that cycle falls on the weekend, with Turkey Season coming up for us here in Ga. We are all blaming you for the Negative Nellie / Murphy's Law jinx on our weather.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> *From the WJ Page this morning*
> 
> Mornin Weather Junkies.
> 
> Man I wouldn't want to be those folks in Tx. Ak, La, or Ms. They are gonna continue to get a ton of rain the next few days.
> 
> For us in Georgia? We'll see some rain move in Friday morning, but nothing major and it won't last. The main body of the rain doesn't really reach us til' Sunday and by then it's about used up. We won't see any amounts near the magnitude they are getting to our west.
> 
> Enjoy your day.



some messican guy


----------



## blood on the ground

What did I miss?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> some messican guy



No, you are incorrect professor. He started this, woe be us we be dryin out, chant a couple of weeks ago, as if we are suppose to live in a rain forest all year long here in the south.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No, you are incorrect professor. He started this, woe be us we be dryin out, chant a couple of weeks ago, as if we are suppose to live in a rain forest all year long here in the south.



can I get my garden planted first?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> can I get my garden planted first?



I don't know. Can you? 
The moon is right, so if you get on it today and tomorrow you should be golden.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't know. Can you?
> The moon is right, so if you get on it today and tomorrow you should be golden.



This workie thang tis gettin in the weigh.


----------



## smokey30725

I'm already inundated with mosquitos.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I'm already inundated with mosquitos.



Move north


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Well, NOAA certainly thinks we'll be normal / average for the next 3 months in terms of precip.
What is average? from 4.8 to 3.9 inches per month. This is for March, April & May. 

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/georgia/united-states/3180

So I ask again, who is predicting this below average gloom and doom?


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Move north



I pay taxes for the land I live on. They don't. I plan on evicting them.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I pay taxes for the land I live on. They don't. I plan on evicting them.


Let us know how that works out for you.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Yay sprang!


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Let us know how that works out for you.



I gave them the option of moving to Mr. Cosper's house where they can live out their lives copying and pasting weather maps or I spray the yard with bug killer. They are considering which option is worse. Some would rather choose death than suffer the wrath of DDD.


----------



## Resica

Been 80 or higher here the last 2 days. Still some snow hangin around on the ground.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I gave them the option of moving to Mr. Cosper's house where they can live out their lives copying and pasting weather maps or I spray the yard with bug killer. They are considering which option is worse. Some would rather choose death than suffer the wrath of DDD.



You do know that spraying your yard only kills the good bugs and doesn't keep your neighbors skeeters from coming over and biting you..........right?


----------



## GA DAWG

I may plant some stuff. If a frost comes. I will just cover it up.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You do know that spraying your yard only kills the good bugs and doesn't keep your neighbors skeeters from coming over and biting you..........right?



I was leaning more toward aerial bombardment.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I may plant some stuff. If a frost comes. I will just cover it up.



Gonna plant "stuff" huh?


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gonna plant "stuff" huh?


Squash and stuff


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Squash and stuff



Man I love growing fresh yaller and zukini squish, but them dang vine bores get em everytime, and ain't a sole, sol, soul out there give me no good advice how to kill the vermin.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man I love growing fresh yaller and zukini squish, but them dang vine bores get em everytime, and ain't a sole, sol, soul out there give me no good advice how to kill the vermin.



So true... I ain't even going to try to grow squash this year...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Quiet in here ain't it?


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Quiet in here ain't it?



Nothing but the sound of buzzing mosquitos.


----------



## spydermon

so quiet I hear it drying up outside.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man I love growing fresh yaller and zukini squish, but them dang vine bores get em everytime, and ain't a sole, sol, soul out there give me no good advice how to kill the vermin.



Sevin dust


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

MariettaDawg said:


> Sevin dust



Tried that. It doesnt woek.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> so quiet I hear it drying up outside.



That's funny, according to yesterdays radar you heard the same thing I heard all night. The pitter patter of rain on the roof, making for some good sleep. 

But hey, if you want your spring food plots to dry up. I can sure put in a request with the big guy for S. AL to get a little dusty.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> so quiet I hear it drying up outside.



 I heard the pitter patter of rain on the roof all night, making for some good sleep. 

But hey, if you want your spring food plots to dry up. I can sure put in a request with the big guy for S. AL to get a little dusty.


----------



## fountain

I think he's right..the rains showers gaps are widening.  None here yet and likely won't be no more than a tenth..but we sure can't change it.  It's that time of year for it to dry up anyway.

Since you can see ahead. ...what we look like for s Florida. .brandon area..for bout a week


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fountain said:


> I think he's right..the rains showers gaps are widening.  None here yet and likely won't be no more than a tenth..but we sure can't change it.  It's that time of year for it to dry up anyway.
> 
> Since you can see ahead. ...what we look like for s Florida. .brandon area..for bout a week



Get your food plots in now, for those of us north of the gnat line, because once the pollen gets done making yaller cake out of the cars and everything else we'll be in for a gully washer. Happens every year. 

Those south of the gnat line, like that Jamaican spider man thingy are in for a regular cycle of rain, just down their way. They are a couple weeks ahead of us on pollen so they need it first.


----------



## fountain

Sunny and no rain today.  What gives!  I want rain..and a lot of it


----------



## smokey30725

A whole 4 minutes of light rain for us. Sunny and humid after that. Wasps were out in full force.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I'll put this here since it really doesn't deal with severe weather that much.

*From the Weather Junkies Page*

Good morning Weather Junkies.

For us in the SE, primarily Ga. we are looking at a really good week ahead. Look for passing showers today, the 17th and the 19th. A good ol' fashion spring shower pattern with nothing of any heavy amounts. We'll be looking at mid to high 60's F up in the northern parts of the state to nearly 90+F down in some areas of the southern sector all of these daily highs will be moderating to the mid 70's statewide by the end of the week. 

Mid-MS and NW-AL could see some stronger storms on Wednesday as this front moves through, but other than that the severe potential really isn't that high this week. 

This time of year my daily routine is Claratin, Flonase and eyedrops to sooth the sandpaper feel in my eyes from all of the pollen. Otherwise I wouldn't survive. 

Stay safe and enjoy the day.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> A whole 4 minutes of light rain for us. Sunny and humid after that. Wasps were out in full force.



What do you have against White Anglo Saxon Protestants, and why must you call them names?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fountain said:


> Sunny and no rain today.  What gives!  I want rain..and a lot of it



Gotta let the birds and the bees do their work first. Happens this way every year, then after a couple of weeks of pollination we get a gully washer or two creating yellow mud.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miggy, what do you think of the predicted cool down this weekend?


----------



## blood on the ground

Bring on winter!!!!


----------



## DDD

Winter will try and make a come back next week.  Unfortunately all its going to do is make you hate winter.  This weather this week is going to be nice and then it's going to just be cold enough to tick you off.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Winter will try and make a come back next week.  Unfortunately all its going to do is make you hate winter.  This weather this week is going to be nice and then it's going to just be cold enough to tick you off.



When's that going to hit?  Got both boys in baseball tournaments this coming weekend.  One of my least favorite things is to sit in a dugout in cold weather.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> When's that going to hit?  Got both boys in baseball tournaments this coming weekend.  One of my least favorite things is to sit in a dugout in cold weather.



First good cold shot will roll in Sunday night, so you should be fine.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> First good cold shot will roll in Sunday night, so you should be fine.



Thank you sir.  Can't begin to tell you how happy that makes me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy, what do you think of the predicted cool down this weekend?



See post #779


----------



## DDD

I updated the Met Shack.  NWS in PTC seems to think some nasty cells may pop from now until 7PM tonight.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Winter will try and make a come back next week.  Unfortunately all its going to do is make you hate winter.  This weather this week is going to be nice and then it's going to just be cold enough to tick you off.



oh man.........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I updated the Met Shack.  NWS in PTC seems to think some nasty cells may pop from now until 7PM tonight.



They are the only ones. This thing is weakening as it moves NE and in case the NWS PTC hasn't noticed, it's dang near cool out there with a very stable atmosphere. 

THunter may be using his wedgie.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Couple of severe cells in eastern TN/western VA just to the north of me right now. Looks like NEGA, WNC, and the Upstate of SC might get in on it before it's over:


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Update for tomorrow's weather in the Met Shack.


----------



## crackerdave

Most every year around Easter,there's one last cold snap.Me and the other old folks call it "Blackberry Winter," which reminds me of a polar bear song called "Blackberry Blossom."


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

crackerdave said:


> Most every year around Easter,there's one last cold snap.Me and the other old folks call it "Blackberry Winter," which reminds me of a polar bear song called "Blackberry Blossom."



You are exactly right Dave. It is Blackberry Winter.


----------



## NCHillbilly

"Blackberry Winter" here is in early May when the blackberries are blooming. A cold spell around Easter is just called "normal weather."  We usually get occasional frost until about the first-second week of May.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> "Blackberry Winter" here is in early May when the blackberries are blooming. A cold spell around Easter is just called "normal weather."  We usually get occasional frost until about the first-second week of May.



Technically, Blackberry winter is before the blooms set. The canes need cooler weather to set good buds for blooming, otherwise it's a slim crop.


----------



## GA DAWG

This coming cold is not blackberry winter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> This coming cold is not blackberry winter.



I'm just tellin y'all what the oldtimer and experts say. It IS before the blooms. Not after they have set. 

Sometimes wives tales and rumors get it wrong too. 

Here's what Dave has to say about all that. If you con't like it blame Dave....... 

http://davesgarden.com/guides/articles/view/2410/

Just like heat lightning. I heard it said all through my growin up years. Come to find out, ain't no such thing.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm just tellin y'all what the oldtimer and experts say. It IS before the blooms. Not after they have set.
> 
> Sometimes wives tales and rumors get it wrong too.
> 
> Here's what Dave has to say about all that. If you con't like it blame Dave.......
> 
> http://davesgarden.com/guides/articles/view/2410/
> 
> Just like heat lightning. I heard it said all through my growin up years. Come to find out, ain't no such thing.



Just going by what all the old-timers around here called it and still do. My hundred-year-old uncle called it that, I think he qualifies as a legitimate old-time bastion of folklore. He never read Dave's garden blog on the internet, but he knew that blackberries and apples and such needed cold weather to set fruit. They all still called it Blackberry Winter because it was a cold spell when the blackberries were blooming. The cold spell in late April here is known as "dogwood winter" for the same reason.


Sometimes old folk sayings aren't based on modern science, but that doesn't make the common usage any less real-they are what they are. 

Blackberry Winter may mean something else entirely in central Georgia than it does here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Just going by what all the old-timers around here called it and still do. My hundred-year-old uncle called it that, I think he qualifies as a legitimate old-time bastion of folklore. He never read Dave's garden blog on the internet, but he knew that blackberries and apples and such needed cold weather to set fruit. They all still called it Blackberry Winter because it was a cold spell when the blackberries were blooming. The cold spell in late April here is known as "dogwood winter" for the same reason.
> 
> 
> Sometimes old folk sayings aren't based on modern science, but that doesn't make the common usage any less real-they are what they are.
> 
> Blackberry Winter may mean something else entirely in central Georgia than it does here.



I bet he says "heat lightning" too doesn't he? 

BTW, we always said it was when the blackberry's were blooming too, and after a few days of 80 degrees here, they just might be.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet he says "heat lightning" too doesn't he?
> 
> BTW, we always said it was when the blackberry's were blooming too, and after a few days of 80 degrees here, they just might be.



I've heard that term all my life too. It's what folks call lightening way off in the distance at night. It amazing how far you can see it, too. I was sitting on the porch one night, and saw "heat lightning" off to the south. I got curious, so I went and brought up the radar on the computer. The storm I was seeing the flashes from was nearly 200 miles away, with about a 26,000' top.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet he says "heat lightning" too doesn't he?
> 
> BTW, we always said it was when the blackberry's were blooming too, and after a few days of 80 degrees here, they just might be.



I still say heat lightning.


----------



## GA DAWG

All I know. You can bet in april when the blackberries go to bloom in it will be cool and windy a day or 2. Turkeys want be doing nothing. It will shut em down. Thats what all the folk around here go by. Not so much the turkey thing. I added that  I will tell yall when it arrives. Plus I still call it heat lightening. These are all I have since I cant read a weather map or nothin


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

From the WJ Page

Good Morning Weather Junkies 
Not expecting much more than a few sprinkles and a breeze today since the Low that was going to cause any precip today moved north further and faster than anticipated. 

Enjoy your day.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Somebody asked the question.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

For the warm weather weenies.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Every single severe weather report from 2015.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For the warm weather weenies.



And I'm feeling every particle of it.


----------



## DDD

According to the GFS and the Canadian models, winter refuses to go down without a fight.  Not just the very back end of the weekend but into next week and beyond.  Blackberry winter, here we come..

Still a little ways out but here are the temperature maps never the less.


----------



## rjcruiser

DDD said:


> According to the GFS and the Canadian models, winter refuses to go down without a fight.  Not just the very back end of the weekend but into next week and beyond.  Blackberry winter, here we come..
> 
> Still a little ways out but here are the temperature maps never the less.



I've got a flower bed in the front yard that looks awful...but...this is why it still looks that way.  I'm waiting until this next cold snap is done before planting.  I don't want to spend $50 and a few hours on flowers just to have to replant.


----------



## DDD

The NC Hillbilly is going to get some snow between now and Friday too if the EURO is right.  The NE is going to get popped good with snow.


----------



## NCHillbilly

DDD said:


> The NC Hillbilly is going to get some snow between now and Friday too if the EURO is right.  The NE is going to get popped good with snow.



Local forecast is calling for some snow showers Saturday night and Sunday morning.


----------



## DDD

NCHillbilly said:


> Local forecast is calling for some snow showers Saturday night and Sunday morning.



Yeah, I was off a little bit on dates.  Through Monday is more correct.


----------



## Patriot44

Dang it!!!!!  We have a cabin all next weekend up yonder.


----------



## Resica

DDD said:


> The NC Hillbilly is going to get some snow between now and Friday too if the EURO is right.  The NE is going to get popped good with snow.



It does look like we may get some snow up this way!


----------



## Resica

My Aunt , who lives in Macon(Lizella) and was up here for 2 weeks last month is flying up tomorrow from Atlanta to Philadelphia in hopes of snow. She's crazy, I love it!!!  Hope she doesn't jinx it.


----------



## GA DAWG

I just heard wintery mix mentioned on tv for north Ga somewhere.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> I just heard wintery mix mentioned on tv for north Ga somewhere.



Wouldn't that be a hoot..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I just heard wintery mix mentioned on tv for north Ga somewhere.



Check the Met Shack. Somebody just put up a map there.


----------



## NCHillbilly

And of course, I live right in that purty blue bulls eye. I gettin' off here and going to catch some white basses before the river freezes over.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> And of course, I live right in that purty blue bulls eye. I gettin' off here and going to catch some white basses before the river freezes over.



I'll see if I can shift it over a little bit to the west.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Ooops, pushed the wrong button and it got worse. 

Sorry.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

*From the Weather Junkie Page this morning.*

Good morning Weather Junkies. 

Looks like the pollen pattern will remain true. Typically we get two complete weeks of amazing weather and heavy pollen followed up by a day or two of gully washers. 

As you'll see by this link that seems to be holding true. This weekend could be very wet for us. 

Have a great Sunday!!! 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=6hrqpf&rh=2016032006&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=


----------



## glue bunny

Winter is over in monticello.  I heard a wipporwill last evening!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

glue bunny said:


> Winter is over in monticello.  I heard a wipporwill last evening!



Y'all have winter in Monticello?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Winter ain't over here yet.  Forecasting snow in the higher elevations tonight.


----------



## blood on the ground

40 degrees in 30132


----------



## glue bunny

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all have winter in Monticello?



Why sure we do!  I saw my breath several morning's this past winter! 
Annnddd we got an inch of snow when it was predicted by DDD!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

glue bunny said:


> Why sure we do!  I saw my breath several morning's this past winter!
> Annnddd we got an inch of snow when it was predicted by DDD!!



Go outside again tomorrow morning and breath. I bet you'll see it again.


----------



## glue bunny

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Go outside again tomorrow morning and breath. I bet you'll see it again.



If the good Lord allows me to see another day I will look for that breath!


----------



## NCHillbilly

38* here right now with a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet coming down pretty hard.


----------



## Resica

37 here. Nothin fallin out of the sky.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Frozen precip and a few flakes peppering the windows now.


----------



## greg_n_clayton

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Frozen precip and a few flakes peppering the windows now.



By the looks of them clouds foaming on the ridges you should be getting more than a few !!


----------



## srb

Looks a lil cooler for a few days, Then rain by the end of the week.


----------



## antharper

Frost in Troup co this morning


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

We had a dusting, nothing more.  Mountain tops are white.


----------



## NCHillbilly

27* and white at my house this morning, couple of inches in places nearby and higher on the mountains.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

The Met Shack updated with this weeks severe weather potential.


----------



## PappyHoel

34 in dville when I left at 530


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Amazing time lapse capture of a microburst last year.


----------



## NCHillbilly

23* here this morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> 23* here this morning.



No pouty faces allowed. Put your big girl panties on and deal with it Francis.


----------



## snookdoctor

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Amazing time lapse capture of a microburst last year.



Not much warning when one collapses. That would not be fun to experience in person.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

snookdoctor said:


> Not much warning when one collapses. That would not be fun to experience in person.



I've been in one. It's kind of scary watching all of the branches of large trees being pushed straight towards the ground in an unrelenting downward wind and rain. The noise is incredible.


----------



## NCHillbilly

I was in one about twenty years ago, that was enough. I thought it was a tornado touching down at the time.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No pouty faces allowed. Put your big girl panties on and deal with it Francis.



Big girl panties no good here this morning. Big girl fuzzy sweatpants are what you need.


----------



## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> 23* here this morning.



What's wrong with that?


----------



## crackerdave

I sure hope that was the last gasp of winter!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

crackerdave said:


> I sure hope that was the last gasp of winter!



It wasn't. If you're north of the gnat line I wouldn't go putting any maters out before April 15th. Jis sayin.


----------



## BrotherBadger

Apparently my hunting land is going to get slammed with snow, the night before I planned on doing some turkey scouting. 12"-18" of snow is supposed to fall tonight. I'm not walking up hills in that mess. My place is only getting 2 or so inches, so at least I'm not shoveling it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BrotherBadger said:


> Apparently my hunting land is going to get slammed with snow, the night before I planned on doing some turkey scouting. 12"-18" of snow is supposed to fall tonight. I'm not walking up hills in that mess. My place is only getting 2 or so inches, so at least I'm not shoveling it.



I guess the advantage there is, you wouldn't have to worry about sitting on a rattler or copperhead in 18" of Snow.


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It wasn't. If you're north of the gnat line I wouldn't go putting any maters out before April 15th. Jis sayin.



I guess I planted too early.  I'm not sure my maters and straw berries will make it.  The onions may survive.


----------



## blood on the ground

PappyHoel said:


> I guess I planted too early.  I'm not sure my maters and straw berries will make it.  The onions may survive.



Strawberry should be fine


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Evening update on tomorrow nights severe weather is up. 
I don't do these except when warranted, so I suggest y'all take a gander at it.


----------



## Hooty Hoot

where it at?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hooty Hoot said:


> where it at?



http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=866061


----------



## coilee

Thanks for the update.


----------



## Lukikus2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It wasn't. If you're north of the gnat line I wouldn't go putting any maters out before April 15th. Jis sayin.



One of the prettiest sights I ever saw mother nature create was blooming dogwoods and six inches of snow coming down. Ya'll were dicussing blackberry winter while back and it can't happen until you have an indian summer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Update to tonight's sleepless in Ga severe weather is now on the Met Shack.


----------



## smokey30725

Thanks for the updates Miguel. Makes me glad I invested in my storm room when I see reports like this.


----------



## jbird1

6 O'clock baseball practice is looking iffy with that new update.  With a 1-2 punch, hopefully we have 2 chances of gully washing some of this pollen away...less the severe threat of course.


----------



## malak05

I get bad feelings about these setups... just gut feeling that the storms that generally cause West Georgia the most headaches are not the long developed tornado producers but they ones that get deep into east Alabama and then pop as they hit a small pocket of uptick in instability.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Critical mesoscale discussion update by NOAA SPC to the Met Shack.

Take a look.


----------



## Nicodemus

Noted. Thanks, Hugh.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Looks to be a might sporty. Hope everyone stays safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

So far the cloud cover is keeping temps down and things quite tame over in Bama. Let's hope it does the same for us. 


Also this system seems to be moving way ahead of schedule. Maybe we'll get some sleep afterall tonight.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Folks in SOWEGA better pay attention to that mess coming out of Alabama. It's got some punch to it.


----------



## Greene728

MC
Looks like that massive line down around the gulf is robbing the northern half of energy. Good for us I'm guessing?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> MC
> Looks like that massive line down around the gulf is robbing the northern half of energy. Good for us I'm guessing?



In round 1. Round 2 comes later on. 

Nicodemus is about to get his chickens relocated. That mess in SOWEGA has some wind in it.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> In round 1. Round 2 comes later on.
> 
> Nicodemus is about to get his chickens relocated. That mess in SOWEGA has some wind in it.





Getting dark here and the wind has picked up considerable. Every cow in sight is feeding like there won`t be no tomorrow.


----------



## Nicodemus

Right after I took these, they took off on a dead run for the other side of the field.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Those cows didn't want none of that.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Those cows didn't want none of that.





The Redhead got plumb tickled watching them out the kitchen window as they took off like turpentined cats for the far end of the field. 

Worst done gone by and just a slow steady rain now. They was a right smart of lightning in that little storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> The Redhead got plumb tickled watching them out the kitchen window as they took off like turpentined cats for the far end of the field.
> 
> Worst done gone by and just a slow steady rain now. They was a right smart of lightning in that little storm.


Don't like lightning too much. Can't predict it on the radar.


----------



## Lukikus2

Anyone notice the amount of low pressure systems that formed off the Atlantic coast and out of the Gulf last fall? They formed right on top of us. I'm predicting a rough spring. Hope not though. Thanks for all ya'll do. Sry to but in.


----------



## Lukikus2

Tornado warning just now issued for Osceola Co. Fl.


----------



## Lukikus2

Up to 20" of rain an hour. Wow


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

That was some kinda crazy wind last night wasn't it?


----------



## fountain

This system must be breaking up some a's it goes?  I keep checking intellicast and every time I look it says 100% within an hour or two...but nothing yet.  Not complaining though.


----------



## YankeeRedneck

Looks that way on the weather channel app on my phone also


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fountain said:


> This system must be breaking up some a's it goes?  I keep checking intellicast and every time I look it says 100% within an hour or two...but nothing yet.  Not complaining though.





YankeeRedneck said:


> Looks that way on the weather channel app on my phone also


This system has started moving back up yet. Give it a few hours and don't make big plans for this afternoon.


----------



## blood on the ground

Even with the cloudy sky's it is absolutely beautiful outside


----------



## DDD

The big chill is coming Saturday and it will go for a while.


----------



## GA DAWG

Do what?


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Do what?



Yep.  Hope nobody planted anything yet.


----------



## DDD

A week from tomorrow's low's.


----------



## GA DAWG

That want be good on the acorn crop.


----------



## DDD

Here are the windchills for Saturday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Yep.  Hope nobody planted anything yet.



I told em to wait til April 15th. But nooooooo.........


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I told em to wait til April 15th. But nooooooo.........



Idgits!


----------



## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> The big chill is coming Saturday and it will go for a while.



hope so


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hey DDD, my Euro doesn't go out more than 5 days. GFS is hinting at something hinky, even worse than the 3rd around the 8th or 9th. What you got for us?


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He DDD, my Euro doesn't go out more than 5 days. GFS is hinting at something hinky, even worse than the 3rd around the 8th or 9th. What you got for us?



Stop teasing us messican


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He DDD, my Euro doesn't go out more than 5 days. GFS is hinting at something hinky, even worse than the 3rd around the 8th or 9th. What you got for us?



stop taunting us!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Funny that the cold air couldn't do its thing during the winter to give us snow.  Then I take a week off for spring break for the first time in 13 years and the dang polar vortex shows up for the first week of April.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Funny that the cold air couldn't do its thing during the winter to give us snow.  Then I take a week off for spring break for the first time in 13 years and the dang polar vortex shows up for the first week of April.


Thanks a lot. Now we know who to blame!


----------



## GA DAWG

Polar vortex be danged.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey DDD, my Euro doesn't go out more than 5 days. GFS is hinting at something hinky, even worse than the 3rd around the 8th or 9th. What you got for us?



I'm going to guess you are referring more to severe weather possibilities than winter weather possibilities.


----------



## MariettaDawg

RinggoldGa said:


> Funny that the cold air couldn't do its thing during the winter to give us snow.  Then I take a week off for spring break for the first time in 13 years and the dang polar vortex shows up for the first week of April.



Yep. Gonna be a cold week on the SC coast.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey DDD, my Euro doesn't go out more than 5 days. GFS is hinting at something hinky, even worse than the 3rd around the 8th or 9th. What you got for us?



I can only see out 10 days.  Worst cold shot on any map is April 2nd / 3rd time frame.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I can only see out 10 days.  Worst cold shot on any map is April 2nd / 3rd time frame.



Not on "any" but the CFS is never right.


----------



## fountain

Sooooo, more wet stuff coming I see.


----------



## GA DAWG

Frost on windshield this mornin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fountain said:


> Sooooo, more wet stuff coming I see.



Yep, you can thank that fella in Opp Alabama for this drought.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hey NCHillbilly!!! When does it warm up on your mountain? July???


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey NCHillbilly!!! When does it warm up on your mountain? July???



Usually late April-mid May, but I have seen killing frost in early June and snow measured in feet in May. Our average last frost date here is May 10.


----------



## lbzdually

MC, if I'm  understanding your post from the Met Shack, the ingredients for severe weather are not coming together like the NWS says they are, correct?  are we looking at a slow soaking rain with a few scattered thunderstorms mixed in, instead?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> MC, if I'm  understanding your post from the Met Shack, the ingredients for severe weather are not coming together like the NWS says they are, correct?  are we looking at a slow soaking rain with a few scattered thunderstorms mixed in, instead?



Sorta kinda but not really. I don't see all of the players on the field and neither do some other mets. However, something is amiss because the NWS is posting very strong numbers for vertical shear and strong winds. Hopefully sooner or later someone will break it down for me so I can get my mind wrapped around this unusual event and learn a little bit. 

Rain yes, potentially lots of it. Storms yes, potentially really bad ones. 

It is times like these where those weather radios really come in handy.


----------



## crackerdave

Flood watch here through Friday.


----------



## GA DAWG

Anybody wanna explain about a weather map I just saw for April 9? Looked like blue stuff in North Ga. Yhey aint hardly been right all winter though.  Probably want start now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Anybody wanna explain about a weather map I just saw for April 9? Looked like blue stuff in North Ga. Yhey aint hardly been right all winter though.  Probably want start now.


Like the one I posted on here today? That blue stuff is freezing temps. The light blue stuff in NCH's backyard is the 20's.


----------



## YankeeRedneck

Tornadoes reported in Tulsa tonight and Arkansas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

YankeeRedneck said:


> Tornadoes reported in Tulsa tonight and Arkansas.



Yep, got some pics of some very nasty supercells out there. Met Shack about to be updated, everyone needs to pay attention.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's one of the supercells over OK last night, and I promise you they didn't think it was ok. 
This one passed just north of Tulsa. Photo Courtesy of James Spann / Twitter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Without drawing the Met Shack post out further, here is another danger with this system for folks in S AL and SOWEGA. 

Rain, and a lot of it. We're talking 4"+ before this thing gets out of here. So my friends in SOWEGA and drought stricken Opp AL need to be prepared. This map is being conservative on total qpf values. Trust me.  This is the 4km Hi-Def Nam.
The next map is the total precip GFS for this event.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Lastly, here is the 10z HRRR total precip accumulation gif. 
This runs for 15 hours and is updated every hour. 
As you can see by this one totals nearing 5" in SOWEGA are not out of the question.


----------



## blood on the ground

Not good...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's the HRRR SimRad. Later runs will get us closer to our 2 to 4am time when the most severe weather should pass thorugh tomorrow morning. 

Some of you will think it is too cool or the atmosphere is too stable with this first round coming through. However, there will be a warm column of nice moist warm air influx northward from the gulf between these two rounds of storms really souping the atmosphere up for ideal convective conditions between the first round this afternoon and the last round early tomorrow morning. 

Don't be fooled and don't let your guard down.


----------



## smokey30725

Hopefully our pattern of ugly radar signatures turning into nothing more than a 5 minute drizzle will continue. We haven't heard so much as a rumble of thunder yet this year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Hopefully our pattern of ugly radar signatures turning into nothing more than a 5 minute drizzle will continue. We haven't heard so much as a rumble of thunder yet this year.



I have heard thunder, but for those of you that haven't, that is about to change.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel, is it any easier to predict the severity of the spring storm season compared to trying to predict the severity of winter weather?


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Miguel, is it any easier to predict the severity of the spring storm season compared to trying to predict the severity of winter weather?



No relationship what so ever.


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## DDD

Just for the record... I think the EURO is on crack for the April 9th time frame.... it had SNNNNNNNNNN.... SNNNNNN.... I just can't say it.

I think its on crack.  LOL


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## GA DAWG

DDD said:


> Just for the record... I think the EURO is on crack for the April 9th time frame.... it had SNNNNNNNNNN.... SNNNNNN.... I just can't say it.
> 
> I think its on crack.  LOL


Thats the blue I was talking from my post last night. Let it snow. Its better than this pollen


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Just for the record... I think the EURO is on crack for the April 9th time frame.... it had SNNNNNNNNNN.... SNNNNNN.... I just can't say it.
> 
> I think its on crack.  LOL



Well, that evil CFS did show the same for that period during a run the other day. Ryan Maue relies heavily on the CFS for long range climate changes, such as the impending la nina for next fall. 

Crack or not, even the GFS has shown hints of that forecast over the last few days.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Thats the blue I was talking from my post last night. Let it snow. Its better than this pollen



Where did you see said map?


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## Nitram4891

So NWS says lingering showers/storms friday from this.  I don't care about friday until sunrise.  But after that, are we still in for more showers?  I was plannin on turkey hunting, are they gona gobble or is the sky gona be the noise maker?  Jasper county.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> So NWS says lingering showers/storms friday from this.  I don't care about friday until sunrise.  But after that, are we still in for more showers?  I was plannin on turkey hunting, are they gona gobble or is the sky gona be the noise maker?  Jasper county.



I wouldn't count on gettin a lot of turkey huntin done, unless you were heading down to the State Capital to do it.


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## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wouldn't count on gettin a lot of turkey huntin done, unless you were heading down to the State Capital to do it.



Thanks!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> Thanks!



That  is of course unless you plan on doing an afternoon hunt. Even then I'm bettin it will be a tad breezy.

OH, and if I'm wrong on the timing it is Blood on Grounds fault.


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wouldn't count on gettin a lot of turkey huntin done, unless you were heading down to the State Capital to do it.


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## spydermon

yall say rain?


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## Miguel Cervantes

spydermon said:


> yall say rain?



Yep, and guess where it's heading. Got some good velocity in those cells too, plus just north Mobile it's already laid down over 4 inches in isolated areas.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Bear with this recent briefing. This is from PTC and they are serious weather nerds.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Spydermon, I hope you are keeping up with this cell. 59dbz and 1" hail is a serious situation. Hope it calms down some before it makes it to your neck of the woods.


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## Head East

Thanks Migs.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's the 16z HRRR simrad that takes up to 07z friday morning (3am) Keep in mind this is a simulated radar and timing can lag or advance based on conditions and development in real time.


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## turkeyhunter835

What time is all yhe bad stuff going to pass over Helen and towns county?


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## turkeyhunter835

Tomorrow


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## Miguel Cervantes

turkeyhunter835 said:


> What time is all yhe bad stuff going to pass over Helen and towns county?



Unfortunately storm systems don't follow time schedules. Forecast times and duration can be speculated, but it is nothing more than that. As you can see on the most recent HRRR simrad 3am is the magic number for the severe stuff in that area with a lot of heavy rain lagging behind the initial storms. 

As with all storm systems they are dependent on conditions ahead of the front as they develop. Based on that the best you can hope for is to A) peek out the window at 4 am and see if it's hit yet, and if so if it looks like it's over or B) wait til the afternoon hunt and hope you know where they'll be going to roost.


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## turkeyhunter835

Dang weather... Go figure tomorrow is my last day of my vacation. Thanks fkr the info. U the man


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## blood on the ground

Maw n law dun went on a cruise to the Bahamas Mon! Hopefully this system will move over that way an the bilge pump will stop working!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Maw n law dun went on a cruise to the Bahamas Mon! Hopefully this system will move over that way an the bilge pump will stop working!!!



Get on the roof boy....


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Get on the roof boy....



Alright..... Where is the Bermuda triangle?


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## turkeyhunter835

blood on the ground said:


> Maw n law dun went on a cruise to the Bahamas Mon! Hopefully this system will move over that way an the bilge pump will stop working!!!



Ha ha ha ha


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## smokey30725

Cloudy but quiet here in Flintstone in the far NW corner of the state.


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Cloudy but quiet here in Flintstone in the far NW corner of the state.



Patience Gertrude. It's a comin. It's rockin and rollin back in W Bama with two confirmed on the ground. (that's what those heavy red polygons mean.)

And no I won't be updating radar tonight for folks. I'm snotty and sneezin and in bad need of drugs. As soon as my wife get's home with em I'm dosin up and saying nighty night.


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## lbzdually

There  is a bad storm at the Tennessee/Bama line at I-65 with possible tornado.


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## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> There  is a bad storm at the Tennessee/Bama line at I-65 with possible tornado.


Not Possible, but confirmed. These cells are training independent isolated cells, the worst kind of severe set up. 
Y'all keep your ear to the local mets and weather radios tonight. It could potentially be a long sleepless one.


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## smokey30725

Just volunteered for a local disaster response team. Hope I don't see my first deployment tonight. Not that I don't want to serve, I just know if I am, someone somewhere has had a really bad day.


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Just volunteered for a local disaster response team. Hope I don't see my first deployment tonight. Not that I don't want to serve, I just know if I am, someone somewhere has had a really bad day.


What sort of program is that?


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## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What sort of program is that?



self medicating already?


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## malak05

Just for people to reference if they haven't seen yet...

000
FXUS62 KFFC 312332
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
STILL ANTICIPATING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
TIMING TOOL ON STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN AL INDICATES
STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF GA BY 10 TO 11
PM THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HIRES RADAR MODELS INDICATE THESE STORMS
WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA... TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO AREA...
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... WITH COLUMBUS AND
MACON STORMS LINGERING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA TO BE
PLACED IN A TORNADO WATCH BOX SOMETIME BY LATE THIS EVENING... SO
STAY TUNED FOR THIS POTENTIAL... AND REMAIN ALERT FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALIZED FLOODING... BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN WITH EXPECT STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT 800-1500 J/KG OF CAPE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THIS SECOND ROUND COULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
20 CORRIDOR... BUT COULD DEFINITELY IMPACT PARTS OF ATLANTA METRO
AREA AGAIN AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT... THAT DOES NOT
PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING... THEN ACROSS
COLUMBUS AND MACON AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY OR LATER. /39


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## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> self medicating already?



After I finish this bowl of Cheerios I'll be taking a heavy dose of nighty night meds. The radar oughta start looking really cool before they knock me out.


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## crackerdave

Gonna be a long night in west central Ga......


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## Miguel Cervantes

crackerdave said:


> Gonna be a long night in west central Ga......



Yep.


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## Miguel Cervantes

If you just heard your weather radio go off, this is why. 
If you didn't then you either aren't in a watch area, yet, or you have failed to heed my instructions. 













   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   915 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EASTERN ALABAMA
     WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
     FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
     SOUTHERN EAST TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
     UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS...SHORT LINES...AND A FEW
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE / DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST INTO
   WATCH AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...TORNADOES...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   TROY ALABAMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


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## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not Possible, but confirmed. These cells are training independent isolated cells, the worst kind of severe set up.
> Y'all keep your ear to the local mets and weather radios tonight. It could potentially be a long sleepless one.



I saw the 'bow' in the radar and thought it looked like a tornado signature, and to top it off another one is basically following the same path.


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## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> I saw the 'bow' in the radar and thought it looked like a tornado signature, and to top it off another one is basically following the same path.


Yes, that is why they call them training cells, as in train cars.


----------



## crackerdave

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, that is why they call them training cells, as in train cars.



Is that why they say a tornado sounds like a train?


----------



## smokey30725

Lightning is starting up here now. Air is muggy and still.


----------



## Nitram4891

Not much going on in the 30317.  Waiting on the rain to get here within the hour.


----------



## Nitram4891

Thunder and lighting now in the 30317


----------



## coilee

Light rain lighting and thunder in North Fulton.


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## Nitram4891

I believe I found your new avatar miguel


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## smokey30725

Brief heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder and it seems to be trailing off up here.


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## Nitram4891

Don't let your guard down.  Unlike some other thunderstorm lines, rather than widespread rain behind this one, it has isolated cells.  Take a look at what's going on in western alabama right now.


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## Nitram4891

Canons firing to our southwest here sitting in the 30317.


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## Nitram4891

Much like during the battle of Atlanta in 1864.


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## crackerdave

It's fifteen minutes till the tornado watch expires,and it's still rumblin' and pourin' like a cow peein' on a flat rock.


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## Miguel Cervantes

What'd I miss?  

Wow!!! this was suppose to clear out at some point this morning but looking at the hi-res NAM this morning we'll get a little break then the stinking thing doubles back on us and doesn't skedaddle until around 6-8 am tomorrow morning. Not good news for the gobble getters.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's your rainfall totals over the last 24 hours, with more to come.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Tornado warning just popped up near Ft. Valley. This is the first decent couplet I've seen out of this entire mess the last day or so. This is the Storm Relative Velocity radar mode, heading straight for Warner Robbins if it holds.

Y'all watch out.


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## Miguel Cervantes

So far it is holding together and is now a confirmed Tornado. Moving right at or just south of Byron and will directly impact WRAFB if it holds together. Impressive rotation on the Base Velocity Mode. Wish I knew how to make a .gif of it so y'all could see.


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## Miguel Cervantes

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   725 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
     CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
     SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
     300 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...OFFERING OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND THE RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
   ALABAMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Still showing remarkable rotation with good inflow. We're about to find out how tough the Jeffersonville radar site is.


----------



## Dustin Pate

Right around 3 inches last night in Heard County. It was doing some serious lightning as well during all that.


----------



## blood on the ground

Dustin Pate said:


> Right around 3 inches last night in Heard County. It was doing some serious lightning as well during all that.



Hope everything is okay down that way Dustin. I bet the river is up real high this morning!


----------



## Dustin Pate

blood on the ground said:


> Hope everything is okay down that way Dustin. I bet the river is up real high this morning!



Yes sir! She is a rolling this morning!


----------



## smokey30725

All clear and sunny in far NW Georgia. Little thunder and some heavy rain for about 30 minutes last night. Looks like we dodged another bullet.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Folks in and north of Dublin need to be alert. That same cell blew apart literally right over the Jeffersonville radar site, however a sister cell developed immediately right over Allentown and is on a track for North Dublin.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Folks in and north of Dublin need to be alert. That same cell blew apart literally right over the Jeffersonville radar site, however a sister cell developed immediately right over Allentown and is on a track for North Dublin.



Thanks brother for keeping everyone informed. You weather guys are much appreciated around here!


----------



## Dustin Pate

Seeing reports on Facebook of damage in Allentown. Prayers for those folks.


----------



## Oldstick

It passed just north of us but right through the middle of Warner Robins and across Robins AFB.  There are some damage reports and power outages, but thankfully sounds like nothing catastrophic or any injuries reported so far.


----------



## smokey30725

Prayers for all those affected.


----------



## DDD

According to the NAM the atmosphere is going to re-load between now and 3 AM Saturday morning.

I have not looked at severe parameters yet but simulated radar tells me we are not done.


----------



## DDD

Looks like some heavy rain fall but nothing in the way of severe.  Rumbles of thunder maybe some lightning, but nothing like last night and this morning.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, is that for south Georgia or will those of us up in the NW corner see much?


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> DDD, is that for south Georgia or will those of us up in the NW corner see much?



Here is the 4PM Simulated radar shot.


----------



## DDD

You can see the wave of moisture riding out of Alabama as we speak.


----------



## DDD

Looking into the weekend, it's going to be a chilly ride in the boat when my son and I take off Sunday morning in Ryan Coleman's spotsticker tournament out of Little Hall park on Lanier.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> You can see the wave of moisture riding out of Alabama as we speak.



Camping trip tonight is a wash..


----------



## Da Possum

Migmack said:


> Camping trip tonight is a wash..



at least you don't have to worry about catching on fire


----------



## smokey30725

Looks like NW Georgia dodges it all again.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like NW Georgia dodges it all again.



I found you some.


----------



## crackerdave

It's the calm before the storm here in Lagrange...this one looks like it's gonna be ruff!


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> I found you some.



LOL, believe it or not, even that misses me. I am right on the line that divides Dade and Walker Counties, right below the Tennessee state line. Farthest NW corner of the state.


----------



## jbird1

Maybe we'll get dry slotted...


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Migmack said:


> Camping trip tonight is a wash..





hdm03 said:


> at least you don't have to worry about catching on fire










4"s and counting here...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> Maybe we'll get dry slotted...



You just have all kind of fun activities in mind don't you?


----------



## Hooked On Quack

^^^^ Weather flop


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Lock 'er down DP !!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

He musta left the office early. 

Got a new one started, one of you jackl..........errrr..........nice friendly mods can lock this one down now.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Migmack said:


> Camping trip tonight is a wash..





hdm03 said:


> at least you don't have to worry about catching on fire










4"s and counting here...


----------



## Hooked On Quack

You can say that again...


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Brim are bedding in the back yard..


----------

