# ***General Discussion Weather Thread #9 2017***



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Here it is, let's load it up with clown maps and crazy talk.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

I'd like to be the first to gripe about no frozen precip IMBY.


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## Wycliff (Dec 7, 2017)

Bring it on


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I'd like to be the first to gripe about no frozen precip IMBY.



Well, go for it!!!

Oh, and in response to your last post on the other thread. 

There is no such thing as a fun commute in, around or through Atlanta, EVER, regardless of what the weather may be.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 7, 2017)

Smells like a new car in herea!


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## rydert (Dec 7, 2017)

cold light rain in Kite.......


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Smells like a new car in herea!



That'll change soon, about to eat an egg or three for lunch.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, go for it!!!
> 
> Oh, and in response to your last post on the other thread.
> 
> There is no such thing as a fun commute in, around or through Atlanta, EVER, regardless of what the weather may be.



Unless you get behind the guy driving the Hummer with the TV strapped to the back playing the SEC CHampionship game on endless loop.  

As a Dawg I support that kind of commute!

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ldog-fan-hummer-atlanta-sec-championship-back


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## Crakajak (Dec 7, 2017)

maybe this thread  will make it snow.


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## Matt.M (Dec 7, 2017)

I like Firsthand's Weather image!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

12z NAM has indeed moved the bulk of the heavier stuff north of it's last track. Waiting on the Euro 12z to run.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12z NAM has indeed moved the bulk of the heavier stuff north of it's last track.



It always does.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

Come on, inundate Lake Lanier!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> It always does.



Yep. Hard to forecast amplitude.


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## Mountainbuck (Dec 7, 2017)

I maybe crazy... but I believe that last image has my county turning blue! Moving NW fo so!


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

Keep that moving NW!  I scrolled through the last 4 euros and that slow jog NW is there.  Same with NAM.


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep. Hard to forecast amplitude.



When will the Euro 12z be in ?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

I guess it depends on which EURO product you post up as to how much you like the potential. I mean, all of that blue looks promising right?

Well not so fast there skippy.

This demonstrates just how big the level of uncertainty is.


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## olered (Dec 7, 2017)

Great! Can't wait to be in Norcross in the morning at 10:00 then head back to Acworth.


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## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> When will the Euro 12z be in ?



Roughly 1:30, by way GFS is playing catch up but getting there and Canadian still good


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Keep that moving NW!  I scrolled through the last 4 euros and that slow jog NW is there.  Same with NAM.



No don't.....knew it would though, just about takes my county out of it.


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

I just love a good cold rain.....hate the NW bump it always takes


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 7, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Roughly 1:30, by way GFS is playing catch up but getting there and Canadian still good



So are all the models on board with this now and if so...why dont the local mets talk more about it ?


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## Nicodemus (Dec 7, 2017)

I sure could use about 4 inches of snow down here along the Kinchafoonee Creek for the next few days.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

olered said:


> Great! Can't wait to be in Norcross in the morning at 10:00 then head back to Acworth.


Shouldn't be an issue, other than a mix potentially falling. Current ground temps here at the Casa de Miggy are at an even 53.0°f. Road temps are even higher. 

If you want near guaranteed fun, head to Scaly Friday for some tubing on fresh snow on Saturday. Roads might be a little iffy if you try to drive it Saturday, with wetness and freezing temps overnight on Friday, could be a slick patch or two.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> So are all the models on board with this now and if so...why dont the local mets talk more about it ?



Waiting on development. You don't make a forecast off of just one set of model runs. It will bite you in the hiney everytime.  They are watching the amplitude of the cold air aloft coming out of the Great Lakes as well. It is the ingredient that will make or break this event. 

Based on history and archives, this one has a high potential for a bust.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

In my uneducated opinion. . . .it's Georgia, in early December.  Until you have a white coating in your yard the odds are forever going to be greater for a cold rain than any frozen precip. 

 Most of us have 40+ years of disappointment backing up this principle.  

But I enjoy all the hoping and wishing going on here.


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Waiting on development. You don't make a forecast off of just one set of model runs. It will bite you in the hiney everytime.  They are watching the amplitude of the cold air aloft coming out of the Great Lakes as well. It is the ingredient that will make or break this event.
> 
> Based on history and archives, this one has a high potential for a bust.



and boom goes the dynamite !


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## olered (Dec 7, 2017)

Not a very fun drive when the roads are dry! I keep having flashbacks of Snowmageddon when I left for Acworth from Loganville and finally just went to sleep in the truck 9 hours later. I know this is completely different though.


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## olered (Dec 7, 2017)

I remember my freshman year of high school (2000) it snowed the day before Christmas break and the day of finals and they closed schools. I got two whole weeks to study for algebra and still failed it and the class when we came back from break.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

olered said:


> Not a very fun drive when the roads are dry! I keep having flashbacks of Snowmageddon when I left for Acworth from Loganville and finally just went to sleep in the truck 9 hours later. I know this is completely different though.



Yep, if this was January it'd be a different story. 



olered said:


> I remember my freshman year of high school (2000) it snowed the day before Christmas break and the day of finals and they closed schools. I got two whole weeks to study for algebra and still failed it and the class when we came back from break.



I'm right there with you on the Algebra. Whatever idiot dreamed up mixing the alphabet with numbers oughta be tied between two horses and pulled apart, slowly.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

Awfully quiet in here. I don't like it.


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

Call map coming up... it's not a thing of beauty.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

Yep, don't like it.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Maue just posted a new map on Twitter. Looks like NWGA gets in on the slop afterall. 


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Added ECMWF 3-hourly precipitation type for U.S. 50-states + United Kingdom to https://t.co/HVbURpELhJ (@WeatherdotUS) to highlight likelihood of frozen-type precip over Southeast U.S. on Friday. pic.twitter.com/AFrCnc6vnf</p>— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) December 7, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

And in the next run the crunchy stuff will move further to the NW making it just a cold, rainy day in GA.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> And in the next run the crunchy stuff will move further to the NW making it just a cold, rainy day in GA.



I've already got it labelled as that.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've already got it labelled as that.



Hey, only one of us can be King of the Pessimists. You've got your spinny thing schtick, let me have this.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maue just posted a new map on Twitter. Looks like NWGA gets in on the slop afterall.
> 
> 
> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Added ECMWF 3-hourly precipitation type for U.S. 50-states + United Kingdom to https://t.co/HVbURpELhJ (@WeatherdotUS) to highlight likelihood of frozen-type precip over Southeast U.S. on Friday. pic.twitter.com/AFrCnc6vnf</p>— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) December 7, 2017</blockquote>
> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>




Right on the razors edge up here south of Chattanooga.  Need just a bit more creep. 

I know the guy that has to make the call for our local schools.  May have to call and give him a hard time.


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

I will explain in more detail later,  but this is my initial guess.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, if this was January it'd be a different story.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm right there with you on the Algebra. Whatever idiot dreamed up mixing the alphabet with numbers oughta be tied between two horses and pulled apart, slowly.



Muslims did according to obama


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD hates NW GA so much he didn't give us a screw, much less a nut or bolt.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> I will explain in more detail later,  but this is my initial guess.



I'm glad I'm not under the screw


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD hates NW GA so much he didn't give us a screw, much less a nut or bolt.



Honestly, it could move more NW.  Take everything and shove it NW.  The EURO supports that and I could see that happening based on history.


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## Crakajak (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Honestly, it could move more NW.  Take everything and shove it NW.  The EURO supports that and I could see that happening based on history.



Smokey would be happy.
Me I don't care at this point....


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## JonathanG2013 (Dec 7, 2017)

What happened to your foot or ankle?


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## keithsto (Dec 7, 2017)

My call map.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

keithsto said:


> My call map.



Now somebody take this dog!


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## Crakajak (Dec 7, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> What happened to your foot or ankle?



Corrective surgery from a snow skiing accident 20 years ago.


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

So just to be clear, I think in some places you will see a lot of snow fly, starting at about 4-6AM depending on where you live.

Here is the HRRR at 6AM tomorrow morning.  

This will not stick, but blue is snow.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> This will not stick, but blue is snow.



Even in the mountains?  It's 45 here now at 2pm and will be 31 at 6am tomorrow.


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## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 7, 2017)

Wait. I'm not prepared.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

It's okay, it's just gon be a cold rain event anyway.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> So just to be clear, I think in some places you will see a lot of snow fly, starting at about 4-6AM depending on where you live.
> 
> Here is the HRRR at 6AM tomorrow morning.
> 
> This will not stick, but blue is snow.



Yeah, I like the way your house gets bombed with snow and all I get is rain. Fake Weather News. Pffffffffffft.


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## Patriot44 (Dec 7, 2017)

How much is blood going to get, asking for blood.


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## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> It's okay, it's just gon be a cold rain event anyway.




IMO, these things are nuts to call because seen scenarios like this a few different times which conditions don't play out based on climate and logic.

Seen the ground temp/nominal temps argument but we've seen those eroded away pretty quickly in past and accumulations mount up we've seen times as well where warm noses screw over many as it streaks into the north we seen this during one event last year but...

Here's a few things already in favor of Snow particular I-20 and points north particular for those area the question is the moisture feed cause leading up to today it's been the lightest qpf... right now that's trending the right direction in some of the short term models

1. Minimal temp issues will exist in the varying columns particular compared to past events meaning closer to freezing and snow producing levels throughout column
2. No dry slots expected in column that will have to saturate before precip. starts reaching the ground
3. Ground temps are a lil high and particularly roads are much better then snowpocalypse lead up but if rates are high enough and earlier then it will overcome pretty quickly and start adding up...


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

malak05 said:


> IMO, these things are nuts to call because seen scenarios like this a few different times which conditions don't play out based on climate and logic.
> 
> Seen the ground temp/nominal temps argument but we've seen those eroded away pretty quickly in past and accumulations mount up we've seen times as well where warm noses screw over many as it streaks into the north we seen this during one event last year but...
> 
> ...



Yeah, I don't envy those who attempt to make these calls, even just for fun. 

That being said we've seen it go from a rain event to a full blast, and we've also seen a forecasted full-blast turn into a rain event.


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## parisinthe20s (Dec 7, 2017)

I always wondered where the whole milk and bread thing came from. In my house it's more like Ice cream, donuts and beer.


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## Mountainbuck (Dec 7, 2017)

Winter weather advisory issued for Chatsworth


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## Crakajak (Dec 7, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> I always wondered where the whole milk and bread thing came from. In my house it's more like Ice cream, donuts and beer.



I have always heard that saying started  during the depression.You needed milk for the little children and  the baking bread smell makes things seem better.You can survive on milk and bread.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 7, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> Winter weather advisory issued for Chatsworth



Same for the Branch.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 7, 2017)

45 degrees with a light rain here in the deerstand. Nice weather.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> 45 degrees with a light rain here in the deerstand. Nice weather.



You in a deerstand deerstand or one of them new fangled shooting houses that are as nice as anything I lived in during college?


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## Nicodemus (Dec 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> You in a deerstand deerstand or one of them new fangled shooting houses that are as nice as anything I lived in during college?



This particular one has a roof. Good thing because it just commenced to raining.


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## Crakajak (Dec 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> This particular one has a roof. Good thing because it just commenced to raining.



Had a farmer tell me one time that rain was gods tears of joy.Congrats on the fine deer.


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

Winter Weather Advisory in Blue.  

Brown is a Hazardous Weather Outlook


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

Well for what it's worth, we got a rain sleet mix here in Upson county


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2017)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/...
Primary concern is potential for accumulating snow mainly Friday
and Friday night. Overrunning pattern already set up today and
seeing surge in precip pushing slowly north into AL and MS in
radar and satellite imagery. 12Z guidance has taken a shift
northwest from previous runs and have made some adjustments to
forecast PoP, QPF and SnowAmt to account for this.

Even with this northwest shift, amount of lift and favorable
thermodynamic profile still about the same. Snow amounts limited
by temperature and dewpoints just above freezing for much of the
event. If heavier band of precip could form, could easily see up
to 1 or even 2 inches of snow. Convective potential appears
limited so will need system to come through stronger than forecast
for that to occur. Still, with uncertainty and minor impacts
likely on elevated roadways and bridges where temps go below
freezing, feel confident that advisory criteria will be met. Will
continue to monitor this storm closely.

As the moisture and precipitation that brought winter weather to
the area exits, temps will remain quite cold. With the
possibility of some lingering moisture from snow melt and runoff
from rain, there is a threat for black ice to impact the areas as
low temperatures Saturday morning dip into the 20s and lower 30s.
The approaching upper level wave quickly pushes the moisture out
of the area on Saturday morning. Will likely issue Special Wx
Statement later when and if black ice threat appears more
imminent.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Winter Weather Advisory in Blue.
> 
> Brown is a Hazardous Weather Outlook


Pffft. The NWS PTC  has bumped their everloving heads. That map is straight out of the GFS playbook. Good grief. Their budget shortage must have them hiring UT grads to run their operation.


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## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

The 20z hrrr short model at end if you like it this 10.1 ratio may be lil less then showing but if you see still much more to come thru rest of day


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## Dustin Pate (Dec 7, 2017)

Sleeting very hard in Franklin (Heard County) right now.


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## texwilliams (Dec 7, 2017)

What is the reason for the eastern side of the state getting robbed... i.e. Athens northward??


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> Sleeting very hard in Franklin (Heard County) right now.



No sleet here now, just a cold rain....


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> What is the reason for the eastern side of the state getting robbed... i.e. Athens northward??



Temp


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

I'll say thus much. IF and that's a big if, the GFS wins out and the cold air does a positive to neutral tilt right over our state forcing will drive the warm air over the cold and we will get hammered. 

I'm still on the NAM/ EURO rain snow mix bus for now though.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 7, 2017)

I'll believe it when I see it. I'm going to be the pessimist this winter and hope mother nature hates me for it and proves me wrong.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

Should I drive into work?


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

I'm waiting for Dawson County to close schools


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## elfiii (Dec 7, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> I always wondered where the whole milk and bread thing came from. In my house it's more like Ice cream, donuts and beer.



Whiskey and firewood at my crib.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

elfiii said:


> Whiskey and firewood at my crib.



I had to give that tradition up. It just got too arduous digging the splinters out of my gums.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

elfiii said:


> Whiskey and firewood at my crib.



I just ordered a batch of sweet tea from Walmart.  I could be snowed in for a couple hours.


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## nickel back (Dec 7, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'll believe it when I see it. I'm going to be the pessimist this winter and hope mother nature hates me for it and proves me wrong.



lol...you always need the NW trend and I always hate the NW trend, it takes my county out of the good snow. Heck , I was in the thick of the snow till it started the NW trend.....

anyways its fun to follow along


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

My brain is map drunk. I need a BLD or three.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My brain is map drunk. I need a BLD or three.



Just step outside and sniff the wind and tell us what you think.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Just step outside and sniff the wind and tell us what you think.



I did, but after them eggs for lunch I don't think you wanna know what I smelled.


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## jbird1 (Dec 7, 2017)

47 degrees IMBY....kinda balmy.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Alrighty. Too many variables to logically comprehend. 

IF that cold air digs in like the GFS and EURO are showing and IF this is an elongated low out of the gulf stretching across Florida up off of the SC coast, this means our cold air will have a SSE flow and our moisture will be coming in from the NE not the South. This makes for cooler moisture putting the dewpoints much closer to the actual air temps instead of a hard convergence line like we would see where good warm gulf air would be slamming into the cold air. 

The moist air would still be warmer than the cold air and if it gets pushed over the top then everybody has this forecast bad wrong and we could be in for a rare event fo sho. 

Sometimes you just shove so much information in to your brain that you don't know what to think. The safe bet is a wintery mix, but if I'm reading this right somebody is in for a surprise. 

For now I'll trust the models and the pros, but that mental image of what I've been studying is like a nagging ex-wife leaving a big what if void in the middle of all of it.

IF you live in the mid Atlantic to NE states this low will work up the coast and turn into a monster snow bomb for those states in 4 to 5 days.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> 47 degrees IMBY....kinda balmy.



Mine too since we are 2'miles apart.


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## jbird1 (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Mine too since we are 2'miles apart.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Mine too since we are 2'miles apart.



It's a frigid 44° here.


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2017)

elfiii said:


> Whiskey and firewood at my crib.



Bacon and bourbon here. 

It will snow here, I have no doubt. It usually does from about late October to mid-April. Frequently.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's a frigid 44° here.



My weather station outback says 45 now it's dropping


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Bacon and bourbon here.
> 
> It will snow here, I have no doubt. It usually does from about late October to mid-April. Frequently.



It's like you live in Maine


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

If you want your kids to have fun this weekend take em up to Scaly Mountain NC. Don't skip the good grub at Annie's Cafe at the base of the mountain either. 

http://www.scalymountain.com/


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> It's like you live in Maine


Only he's missing the most annoying accent in America.


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## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My brain is map drunk. I need a BLD or three.



Moonie would love this post.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Moonie would love this post.



Yep, dangit woman.


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Only he's missing the most annoying accent in America.


Not by any means. I work with a feller from Maine, his accent isn't half as annoying as those Massachusetts and New York people.


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> It's like you live in Maine



The funny thing is, we often get considerably more snow and cold here in the southern Appalachians than they do way up north. Why, I don't know. I guess, Gulf moisture and fronts hitting a major land mass.


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## mammajamma (Dec 7, 2017)

For all of you teachers....repeat after me....

Teacher's Prayer for Snow

Oh Lord, let it snow.
Let it drift and let it blow.
In the morning, no real fuss,
Just enough to stop the bus.
Enough to make the county say:
"There will be no school today."
Let the radio report: "Snow's deep!"
And I'll roll over for more sleep.
Then later on, say maybe ten,
I'll turn the radio on again.
Just in time to hear them say:
"It's strange, the snow has gone away."
And then I'll know, You made it stop.
So I can go to the mall and shop.
Please, Lord, just hear my teacher's plea,
And make it snow for the kids and me.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

When's the next model run?


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

mammajamma said:


> For all of you teachers....repeat after me....
> 
> Teacher's Prayer for Snow
> 
> ...




There's a whole lot of teachers that started End of Course tests today and need to finish tomorrow.


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## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> When's the next model run?



We are really in the windows of short term models now...
HRRR, NAM, RAP

HRRR & RAP run hourly and NAM runs again around 9
GFS/CMC around 10
Euro around 1 am (at that point its real-time watching)


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## hmaddox (Dec 7, 2017)

I am supposed to get on the road driving from Acworth to ATL and arrive at 7AM.  What do you think the roads will be like in the AM?


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## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 7, 2017)

hmaddox said:


> I am supposed to get on the road driving from Acworth to ATL and arrive at 7AM.  What do you think the roads will be like in the AM?



Wet

But who am I??


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

Feels colder than what mt thermometer says.  42 in D'ville


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## 3ringer (Dec 7, 2017)

I took my prized digital thermometer down to the hunting camp. I didn't think I would be needing it this early in season at home. I feel necked without it.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 7, 2017)

This evening was the coldest 45 degrees I can remember. It sure felt colder.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

If the Euro is correct Blood will get about 1/2" sittin on his rooftop weather watchin perch.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

.28" in dville.  It will be a white out


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> This evening was the coldest 45 degrees I can remember. It sure felt colder.



That humidity drives it to your bones.


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## greg_n_clayton (Dec 7, 2017)

Looks like a dusting !!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

greg_n_clayton said:


> Looks like a dusting !!


Youre under a winter weather warning up your way. Might get a tad more than a dusting up in God's country.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

NWS discussion is upgrading their thoughts on this system. 

Blood might get 2". Getting interesting.


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 7, 2017)

Have y’all seen the vid from the football field at Texas a&m? Awesome


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Not or redistribution, but y'all won't tell,,,,,,right?
This is the discussion that EMA and City managers get to sit in on, so don't tell I shared it with you.


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 7, 2017)

Dalton city weather just put out on Facebook 2-5” lol


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## 3ringer (Dec 7, 2017)

The temps are slow to drop. Looks like Thomaston was the cold spot a hour ago at 41.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 7, 2017)

NAM is still all in.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017120800&fh=42&r=us_se&dpdt=


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Listen to the video I just provided guys. Very informative as to the changes taking place and the NWS thoughts.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Listen to the video I just provided guys. Very informative as to the changes taking place and the NWS thoughts.



Great info on the video. Thanks


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 7, 2017)

Gonna go ahead and turn my alarm off for tomorrow morning.


----------



## Rockdale Buck (Dec 7, 2017)

The pictures out of Texas are insane!!! Big snows in a lot of places that never see snow! Hope for the same for us tomorrow!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

And so it begins. 

White County Schools closed for tomorrow.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

I can say this the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and RGEM these guys no matter to 6:1 Or 10:1 ratio if they have any handle on this parts around and north of 20 on West side gonna have some very good #@


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Now I understand why the NWS has shifted their thinking.  This is quite the shift in totals since the last run.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

Winter storm warning is issued.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

School Closings
White County
Habersham County


----------



## malak05 (Dec 7, 2017)

With what's going on in Texas right now and how moisture is looking to be rich with minimal warming issues particularly west and north or downtown ATL I believe it's starting to be a safe a large portion of those counties currently still in WWA will be moved to watches and warnings soon


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 7, 2017)

I'm in the warning no Dawson county school closure yet


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> I'm in the warning no Dawson county school closure yet


Give it time. They have to finish their Texas Holdem game before they get the word out.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

I will be providing ground truth from north Paulding


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I will be providing ground truth from north Paulding



Ground truth or Roof truth?


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Ground truth is rain snow mix started at 2:30 am in Cartersville


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Warning area has been expanded.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

*School Closings*

White County
Habersham County
Walker Private School


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing in Gilmer and Polk County Ga now.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> *School Closings*
> 
> White County
> Habersham County
> Walker Private School



I figured more would've called it off already... How would you like to be on a school bus as it swapped ends


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 8, 2017)

That would be big ol' donuts.   And not the plastic type.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I figured more would've called it off already... How would you like to be on a school bus as it swapped ends



That's what I don't get. They've got to make a call soon. It isn't the gettin to school that will be a problem. It's the gettin home that might be iffy.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's what I don't get. They've got to make a call soon. It isn't the gettin to school that will be a problem. It's the gettin home that might be iffy.



Yep.. I tried to talk my wife into taking the day off but she didn't listen.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Blue Ridge Georgia already this morning.


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

Sleeting pretty good here in the 30110 at 4:30AM


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Dang, blood be getting the snow!! Already sleeting good at bloods.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

School Closings

Floyd County
Chatooga County
Fannin County
Union County
Towns County
Gilmer County
Lumpkin County
White County
Habersham County
Walker Private School


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Weather channel showing the shift NW. We might see a glancing blow from this system after all. Nothing here up by Chattanooga yet.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2017)

Hard rain with thunder here. 40 degrees. And I`m leaving hot coffee and this to go to a deer stand.


----------



## EricWS (Dec 8, 2017)

Just started sleeting south end of cleveland


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Walker county just announced a two hour delay.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

Nice falling snow here in Paulding


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Public Schools


Fannin County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:29am

Floyd County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:37am

Gilmer County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:25am

Gordon County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:40am

Habersham County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:39pm

Lumpkin County Schools
Closed 12 mo Staff Report on Time - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:15am

Towns County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:22am

Union County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:33am

White County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:20pm


---- Private Schools


Walker School
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 03:57am


---- Events


Lawrenceville Christmas Parade
Canceled for Friday Night - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 06:26pm


----------



## nickel back (Dec 8, 2017)

yall enjoy, done stop raining here in Spalding county


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing a bit in Woodstock, nice dusting over my car


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

---- Public Schools


Fannin County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:29am

Floyd County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:37am

Gilmer County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:25am

Gordon County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:40am

Habersham County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:39pm

Lumpkin County Schools
Closed 12 mo Staff Report on Time - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:15am

Rabun County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:42am

Towns County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:22am

Union County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:33am

Walker County Schools
Delayed 2 Hours - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:45am

White County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:20pm


---- Private Schools


Walker School
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 03:57am


---- Events


Lawrenceville Christmas Parade
Canceled for Friday Night - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 06:26pm


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

Man, that is one long train of snow going thru back thru Houston


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

The NWS is considering expanding advisory and/or warning over far NW counties based on trends and recent HRRR forecasts


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

---- Public Schools


Dawson County Schools
Closed 12 Month Staff Report If Safe - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:58am

Fannin County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:29am

Floyd County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:37am

Gilmer County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:25am

Gordon County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:40am

Habersham County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:39pm

Lumpkin County Schools
Closed 12 mo Staff Report on Time - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:15am

Pickens County Schools
Closed Staff report at 9:00 - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:53am

Polk County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 06:07am

Rabun County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:42am

Towns County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:22am

Union County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:33am

Walker County Schools
Delayed 2 Hours - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:45am

White County Schools
Closed - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 10:20pm


---- Private Schools


Lanier Christian Academy
Delayed 2 Hours Staff Report at 9:30 - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 05:59am

Walker School
Closed - Last Updated: 12/08/2017 03:57am


---- Events


Lawrenceville Christmas Parade
Canceled for Friday Night - Last Updated: 12/07/2017 06:26pm


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 8, 2017)

SE ward is the way it needs expanded.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Turning into a snow/rain mixture imby. Doesn't seem cold enough to produce only snow yet


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 8, 2017)

Starting to stick in the woods on Paulding


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

OK, y'all are on your own. I've got appointments today I gotta get ready for.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

How in the dickens are Paulding county schools open, just received a call that were staying open


----------



## normaldave (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing in Rome...


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

normaldave said:


> Snowing in Rome...



Very nice!  You are going to be in a decent spot today. Temps are right.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

malak05 said:


> How in the dickens are Paulding county schools open, just received a call that were staying open



IKR, the cars are covered here. Paulding emphasized, OPEN.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

Between the Meteorologist and the school officials I'm gonna blow a gasket


----------



## normaldave (Dec 8, 2017)

And about 15 minutes later... 




temperature 34F, dewpoint 34F, 100% humidity.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Pauldimg is probably banking on roads not being a problem.  Unless they get under a really heavy band of snow for 2+ hours, roads won’t be a problem.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

35 degrees IMBY w/ a wintry mix.....school is in session.  Forsyth-Dawson line


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

Speaking of heavy bands pretty darn heavy snowfall right now in Pauldinf


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

Dang warm noses...


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Still rain here.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Dang warm noses...



lol


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

Sleet has changed to snow here in Bremen


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Dang warm noses...



The warm nose will be overcome. It’s just a matter of when.


----------



## olered (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down pretty good in north Cobb. Deck furniture is almost white. You still thinking a trek to Norcross and back is going to be a problem Miguel or DDD? I'm a Home Inspector so I can promise you I ain't getting on a roof!


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

We are covered in Paulding. Grass, cars, everything. Temp has dropped from 37 to 34.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 8, 2017)

Grass is white in some areas in chatsworth


----------



## blondiega1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Heavy sleet in Paulding 2 miles SE of Dallas.
We’ve got to head to SOWEGA for a death in the family. Loading up the motorhome to get out now before anything starts to decide to muck up the roads.


----------



## Water Swat (Dec 8, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Between the Meteorologist and the school officials I'm gonna blow a gasket



Why so angry?


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

gone over to all snow here in extreme N Forsyth


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2017)

Feels like the temps are dropping here in the woods in Lee County.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 8, 2017)

Weather last night: no advisories, calling for snow showers starting at daybreak, less than an inch accumulations.

This morning: woke up at 5 this morning to a winter storm warning, about an inch and a half already on the ground and still pouring down like a blizzard. Now calling for 4"-6" today. I-40 was 20 miles of 3rd gear, 4wd, 35mph, nothing but white in the headlights, with idjits sliding around all over the place. 

Yay. How magical.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Finally starting to stick in Woodstock


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

Snow started sooner than forecasted, about like I expected.  We've already got nearly 2.5" in 30512.  I'm thinking by the end of the day, we might have real pile of snow.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Great photo, I hope we get that much snow


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Just got in the pool for a quick swim! Probably going to plant some flowers afterwards...... 80 with no humidity in North Paulding at the moment.

Sorry Hillbilly! Id take it all away ifin I could!


----------



## DCHunter (Dec 8, 2017)

Aren't temperatures lower than forecasted and are they supposed to be dropping throughout the day? I hope this doesn't turn into snowpocalypse 2.0.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Guys... this is way over performing.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

Yep, winter storm Benji got some teeth probably already approaching a inch in yard in Paulding county with maybe another 16 hours of snow heavy at times coming


----------



## Priest (Dec 8, 2017)

We had close to an inch on the patio table when I left Canton an hour ago. I'm in Kennesaw now with rain/snow mix, mostly snow at this point.  We'll need to make a decision on pulling the chute or not today.  My wonder is if the temps will rise a bit and turn it back to rain, or if the early overperformance will have cooled everything enough that the bottom drops on it


----------



## blondiega1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Heavy snow in 30157. Already 1/2” on the ground.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Guys... this is way over performing.



I'm in sandy springs this morning followed the brine truck down 400.  Wife says it's snowing like cats and dogs in dawsonville.  I may get some work done and then head home early.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

Chatsworth has a dusting so far. Dalton is void of any once you cross the river bridge from Murray co.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Chatsworth has a dusting so far. Dalton is void of any once you cross the river bridge from Murray co.



Not a flake in Catoosa County.  But schools delayed 2 hrs anyway.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

Any chance the good folks in the Athens area get in on some of the action?


----------



## blondiega1 (Dec 8, 2017)

I’m shocked that Paulding has gone ahead with school today.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Guys... this is way over performing.



The folks in West Georgia would tend to disagree so far.

Those clown maps are fun to look at days in advance, but it always moves to the Northwest.


----------



## normaldave (Dec 8, 2017)

Dropped to 33F in Rome, at 0800 Hrs.
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rome, GA - dropped to 33F - 0800 hrs. ? @spann @gonweatherguy pic.twitter.com/BHQUowBcyy</p>— David Boylan (@DavidBoylan15) December 8, 2017</blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

East side folks will have to wait until this evening and tonight.


----------



## Robbie101 (Dec 8, 2017)

Just on the cut line here in Walton County. Truck said 40 when coming to work. All rain this far.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

Lite rain starting back in rockdale county. It wasn't even raining here at daylight


----------



## Ruger#3 (Dec 8, 2017)

North East Bartow County...hello winter.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

My view as I porch sit this morning.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> East side folks will have to wait until this evening and tonight.



How far east you thinking? Still about the same as the call map from yesterday?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Guys... this is way over performing.



I just measured 3 15/16ths on my deck rails at 8:30.  It wasn't forecasted to hit here till 8.  Looking at the radar, we're gonna be getting snow all day long and maybe into the night.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> The folks in West Georgia would tend to disagree so far.
> 
> Those clown maps are fun to look at days in advance, but it always moves to the Northwest.



Long, long way from being over. Just got started.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Yep. Blairsville is ground zero right now.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Steady snow and 33 IMBY at the moment


----------



## bowandgun (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down in north Cherokee


----------



## nickel back (Dec 8, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> Any chance the good folks in the Athens area get in on some of the action?



dont hold your breath



Dustin Pate said:


> The folks in West Georgia would tend to disagree so far.
> 
> Those clown maps are fun to look at days in advance, but it always moves to the Northwest.



THIS^^^^^^


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

Probably 1" or close to it already on elevated surface here in the Haralson County area and a long way to go.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> East side folks will have to wait until this evening and tonight.



Suits me just fine.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

A-Aron (Paulding) done messed up. Roads are covered and temp has dropped to 33.  Chillens at school


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Birmingham dropped to 31 degrees....hmmmm


----------



## greg_n_clayton (Dec 8, 2017)

That new weatherman on channel 5 shore flubbed the dub !! I would not show my face today !! Ain't gona do nothing he says...no need to go get bread, milk and eggs he says....maybe a light drizzle with a 5 mile strip possibly getting snow he says, trust us he says, down load our app we got yor back..he says !!!!

More reason to stick with our GON weather people !!


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

33 degrees...N Forsyth


----------



## Buckfever 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> A-Aron (Paulding) done messed up. Roads are covered and temp has dropped to 33.  Chillens at school



I just got the text from paulding county schools...They said the middle and high schools will be getting out at 11:30...and the elementary schools at 12:30 pm...It has been coming down here in dallas , 30132 sense about 7am !
Moderate to heavy too !


----------



## mark-7mag (Dec 8, 2017)

greg_n_clayton said:


> That new weatherman on channel 5 shore flubbed the dub !! I would not show my face today !! Ain't gona do nothing he says...no need to go get bread, milk and eggs he says....maybe a light drizzle with a 5 mile strip possibly getting snow he says, trust us he says, down load our app we got yor back..he says !!!!
> 
> More reason to stick with our GON weather people !!



They need to hire Dagmar Midcap !


----------



## HuntinMaconCO (Dec 8, 2017)

Paulding county releasing early.


----------



## Buckfever 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

So DDD...Do you think the temps will for anymore today or...will it do so tonite


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> So DDD...Do you think the temps will for anymore today or...will it do so tonite



Wunderground say rain starting around noon for dawsonville and then snow after 8pm.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Not to fear, the no-snow dome in NW Georgia is holding fast.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> So DDD...Do you think the temps will for anymore today or...will it do so tonite



Road temps.. Aka .. Surface temps have dropped significantly! They are all very very close to freezing. It will get interesting after 2 if not before.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowed pretty good in Dalton here for a few minutes.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

greg_n_clayton said:


> That new weatherman on channel 5 shore flubbed the dub !! I would not show my face today !! Ain't gona do nothing he says...no need to go get bread, milk and eggs he says....maybe a light drizzle with a 5 mile strip possibly getting snow he says, trust us he says, down load our app we got yor back..he says !!!!
> 
> More reason to stick with our GON weather people !!



Adam Clutz. He's not new. He is a goofball though


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2017)

The deer are moving mighty good in this cold rain down here. Some snow would be nice. 39 degrees and rain.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> The deer are moving mighty good in this cold rain down here. Some snow would be nice. 39 degrees and rain.



Hope they are up here. Im gonna climb in the shooting tower about 2 yeye


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Paulding and PCHS parking lot.


----------



## HuntinMaconCO (Dec 8, 2017)

32 degrees in northern Kennesaw. Roads getting slushy.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Dec 8, 2017)

Cobb and Marietta schools releasing early


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

It's a white out here in Sandy springs. I'm hurrying to finish work and get out of dodge


----------



## normaldave (Dec 8, 2017)

10:00, Rome, GA 33F.  Hang in there Smokey, the cavalry is coming!


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down now in Lawrenceville.


----------



## GA native (Dec 8, 2017)

Got a @ an inch of snow on the deck in Acworth. Been snowing since daybreak. And no signs of it slowing down.

... Is Al Gore in town? This kind of weather seems to follow him around.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

My ground truth in Ringgold is laughing at the radar.  Under snow on radar for ninety minutes.  Nary a flake falling.  

Happy for all of y'all getting some good snow.  Keep the pics coming.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

In the car heading home.  I can see this sticking to the road if it lasts


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Dalton is under another heavy band right now. The panic permeating my workplace is palpable.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

Inch of snow on deck rail in Woodstock already.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

Roads in Blairsville are reportedly slick.  I haven't been out except on the atv.  Temps have bounced between 31-33 and now at 32.  Snow slowed but never stopped and is picking up again now.  When I went outside with the kids, there was an honest 5" on the deck rails.  It's very wet.


----------



## Matt.M (Dec 8, 2017)

Flakes are starting to come down in Decatur.  Glad, because I thought we were too far south.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Pic doesn't do it justice. Snowing much harder than it looks here in Dalton on the north end.


----------



## spotman (Dec 8, 2017)

Big flakes coming down in Newnan..


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Bartow finally closing school and buses. Paulding and Bartow done did it again. SMH


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Pic doesn't do it justice. Snowing much harder than it looks here in Dalton on the north end.



Everyone at my work is like oh snap oh snap what do we do. Im here eating popcorn bec ive known for a week about this and drive the old 4x4 truck to work today.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Still locked in at 33 degrees w/ moderate snow in far N Forsyth


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 8, 2017)

Big flakes coming down in Franklin...Heard County.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Starting to come down really good now. This is how my dogs feel about it


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

Btw hey spaniard snow before christmas!


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Forsyth County releasing early


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

2" or a tad more and still coming down in Bremen


----------



## cjones (Dec 8, 2017)

Just changed from rain/snow mix to all snow in Newnan about 10:45a.  Leaves on the ground are starting to look whitish.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

Blairsville at 10:30


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Those are some great photos. Looks like you guys hit the jackpot


----------



## Captkirk120 (Dec 8, 2017)

It hasn't stopped falling in Kennesaw since 6:00 this morning. Parking lots are starting to get a dusting but roads still seem clear.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

I hope we get released soon. We can all work from home and I'm concerned about another Snow Jam. Thankfully if that happens this time I don't have to worry about interstates and the whole trip is backroads.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Those are some great photos. Looks like you guys hit the jackpot



I hit the jackpot alright, but it has nothing to do with snow.


----------



## campboy (Dec 8, 2017)

I just want to go hunting but im at work


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 8, 2017)

Fat flakes just started at Tribble Mill at Ozora in SE Gwinnett.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2017)

38 degrees and a light rain. Deer slacked for a spell, but they moved good this morning.

Any chance at all we might get some snow down here?


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Had to walk out on the roof and clear the satellite dish....


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I hit the jackpot alright, but it has nothing to do with snow.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

The snow line is getting closer to rockdale county. Steady rain right now. Time to go run some errands


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

The freaking bottom has fallen out in N Paulding. Cotton balls. Roads are covered.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Post of the year... Had to go on the roof to clear the dish


----------



## Buckfever 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> The freaking bottom has fallen out in N Paulding. Cotton balls. Roads are covered.



Wow...my son just said the flakes look like cotton balls dad.
we are in Newhope, in east Paulding


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Sorry for the double post... First one wasn't showing up on my end!


----------



## cjones (Dec 8, 2017)

cjones said:


> Just changed from rain/snow mix to all snow in Newnan about 10:45a.  Leaves on the ground are starting to look whitish.



Well that was short lived. About 20 mins later all precip stopped.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down good in Ringgold.

Schools went 2 hours late today.  Reported at 10am.  

Now they let out early at 1130.   Total of 90 minutes of instruction today.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

...and here go the driveway/roads starting to stick...still at 33 degrees though


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 8, 2017)

What’s the update?!?


----------



## cjones (Dec 8, 2017)

cjones said:


> Well that was short lived. About 20 mins later all precip stopped.



Well hot dog.. 5 mins after posting that, big flakes are starting to fall again. 11:30a.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> The freaking bottom has fallen out in N Paulding. Cotton balls. Roads are covered.





jbird1 said:


> ...and here go the driveway/roads starting to stick...still at 33 degrees though



Tv met said that wouldn't happen.  I see another apocalypse coming.


----------



## lbzdually (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down hard in Murray County.  A couple of inches in the yard and it's starting to cover the driveway.  Usually when the driveway gets covered, the road does here.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> What’s the update?!?



Ikr. When we need our heroes the most they go mia


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> Tv met said that wouldn't happen.  I see another apocalypse coming.



They are telling us that there us no accumulation and I just measured 3" here a click east of blood. 

It is absolute white out right now.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 8, 2017)

COLD rain in Athens, but heard it was snowing IMBY in Winder.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 8, 2017)

Hasn’t stopped on Paulding forest.  Probably close to 4 inches now


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Latest


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing good in dalton ga


----------



## Bob Shaw (Dec 8, 2017)

It just started to snow in the Newnan area and its coming down hard.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

Came out to start the truck and we're getting a rain snow mix in rockdale now


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

GON weather specialists....is this a "Miller A?"


----------



## TAP (Dec 8, 2017)

Here is a good site that shows info for the road sensors in GA.

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/gdot_rwis


----------



## 95g atl (Dec 8, 2017)

hi fellas.

Do you the weather folks have any updated graphs and such for lunchtime????

thx


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Lovin it! Still POURING snow! I need to get some work done too.


----------



## nickel back (Dec 8, 2017)

Temperature

 36.5 °F

 Relative Humidity

 96.1 %

 Dew Point Temperature

 35.5 °F

 Wet Bulb

 36 °F

= rain


that is in Spalding county right now


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Winter Storm Warning has been expanded...now include Forsyth, Cobb, etc.


----------



## 95g atl (Dec 8, 2017)

Coming down hard in City of Suwanee and slowly starting to stick on the grass and trees.  I definitely underestimated this for today.

Reminds me of a few years ago and ATL shutdown b/c of underestimated snow.....


----------



## LEGHORN (Dec 8, 2017)

GON weather guys, y’all are awesome. I’ve been talking about this possibility with folks for past couple days based on y’alls info. TV Mets, government just seemed to blow it off as little accumulation or not much affect due to ground temps, road temps, etc. They blew it, especially in Paulding and here in Cobb by not realizing the potential and waiting so late to make school decisions.


----------



## 95g atl (Dec 8, 2017)

LEGHORN said:


> GON weather guys, y’all are awesome.



X2


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

LEGHORN said:


> GON weather guys, y’all are awesome. I’ve been talking about this possibility with folks for past couple days based on y’alls info. TV Mets, government just seemed to blow it off as little accumulation or not much affect due to ground temps, road temps, etc. They blew it, especially in Paulding and here in Cobb by not realizing the potential and waiting so late to make school decisions.



When I realized Miguel was having trouble picking it apart...and it was driving him to self medicate...I started paying attention...haha


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

It is awesome to see and hear of all the snow reports, still holding out some hope for us NEGA folks.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

More pics from Dalton on the north end.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

LEGHORN said:


> GON weather guys, y’all are awesome. I’ve been talking about this possibility with folks for past couple days based on y’alls info. TV Mets, government just seemed to blow it off as little accumulation or not much affect due to ground temps, road temps, etc.



Same.  I mentioned this possibility Monday and everybody thought I was crazy.


----------



## yelper43 (Dec 8, 2017)

I guess the snow dome is busted. It’s pretty outside but they still haven’t called off my work.


----------



## Buckfever 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Anyone put cables or chains on yet ?


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 8, 2017)

Went from rain/snow mix to heavy snow back to rain in rockdale. I went in the bank and it was cotton ball snowing. When I came out it was raining


----------



## Spanky916 (Dec 8, 2017)

Gwinnett County Schools just announced they are letting out an hour early. Snow just started sticking around 11:30 around Lawrenceville/Snellville. Roads are semi slushy but it's still melting on roadways.


----------



## hold em hook (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing big ol flakes in Winder now.  I wish the temps would drop so it would start sticking!


----------



## gunnurse (Dec 8, 2017)

Still snowing pretty good in Chatsworth. We are under "Code Triage," meaning that staffing emergency has been declared. In essence, all employees that are here must stay here until relieved. 

Temps are, of course, going to drop here throughout the evening, keeping the snow in place and freezing on the roads. 

Oh, My!!! How exciting!!!   

(Just kidding.)


----------



## sinclair1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Wife is moving about 2 mph on canton hwy in kennesaw, so if you wait much longer you may find yourself in another snow jam.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

gunnurse said:


> Still snowing pretty good in Chatsworth. We are under "Code Triage," meaning that staffing emergency has been declared. In essence, all employees that are here must stay here until relieved.
> 
> Temps are, of course, going to drop here throughout the evening, keeping the snow in place and freezing on the roads.
> 
> ...



Ortho trauma day at murray medical!


----------



## Stonewall 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Just started sticking to the grass and vehicles in Hoschton about 30 minutes ago.


----------



## sinclair1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Roads covered in woodstock


----------



## Backlasher82 (Dec 8, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> It is awesome to see and hear of all the snow reports, still holding out some hope for us NEGA folks.



Are you hoping it stops soon and the roads get cleared off?


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 8, 2017)

Major road issues in Heard County. Roads are super slick. Constant wrecks coming over dispatch.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Still 33 and snowing east of blood. Just went to check on 85YO GFather, and BIG branches starting to fall.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

Backlasher82 said:


> Are you hoping it stops soon and the roads get cleared off?



No I am hoping we get some snow, down in the Athens area.


----------



## gunnurse (Dec 8, 2017)

I hear that the ER might go into panic mode- Snow and rotor blades don't mix well. I love me some Erlanger.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

Hwy 129 south of Blairsville just closed.  7 inches on my deck.  I'm betting we get over a foot before it's done.


----------



## Matt.M (Dec 8, 2017)

Raining in Decatur now.  UGH.  Come on temps swing back to the cold side.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

Any update from DDD on what the rest of day looks to hold?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

What'd I miss. Is it doing anything out there?


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Starting to let up a bit by me, turning into to sleet. I want my snow back.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 8, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Starting to let up a bit by me, turning into to sleet. I want my snow back.



Probably will get it back just a brief pass before round 2 this may go into the Sat. Morning for many... What a heck of a storm


----------



## Backlasher82 (Dec 8, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> No I am hoping we get some snow, down in the Athens area.



Gotcha. I'd gladly send you ours if I could, this part of NE GA is getting more than we need.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

That sounds promising


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Looks like we're locked in for several cold blasts.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

It never thundered!!! Carp... Maybe nex time


----------



## Priest (Dec 8, 2017)

3.5" so far I'M BY in Canton. Had to shovel the driveway to get the truck to stay still on it rather than sliding into the road. Pregnant wife on the way home and she didn't need to deal with that either


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Slacking off here in Dalton now. Our safety guy was saying another big band was heading our way from the Birmingham area? He was wanting to cancel 2nd and 3rd shift and 1st tomorrow but the director didn't go for it.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

gunnurse said:


> I hear that the ER might go into panic mode- Snow and rotor blades don't mix well. I love me some Erlanger.



Worked a shift in the ER on Monteagle Mtn 10 years ago in a snow storm.  Hadn't needed to fly anyone out in 3-4 months.  Up there it was just me and ONE nurse and i thought with the whiteout conditions we'd be slow.  

So of course I had an Acute MI, acute CVA, and an acute abdomen needing surgery all come in at the same time.  No helicopter to the rescue that day.  I still have nightmares.


----------



## mammajamma (Dec 8, 2017)

Here's an interesting little fact for you:

I heard on a station last night that since records have been kept (1900's) in Birmingham, it has snowed before Christmas 15 times.  With each of those times, a flake never has fallen again after Christmas.


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 8, 2017)

Went from rain to this pretty quick in Ephesus.


----------



## nickel back (Dec 8, 2017)

malak05 said:


> What a heck of a cold rain storm


....

I did  say I hate the NW jog right

glad to see a bunch of yall got the snow, the pics have been great


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Dec 8, 2017)

nickel back said:


> ....
> 
> I did  say I hate the NW jog right
> 
> glad to see a bunch of yall got the snow, the pics have been great



^^^^ This


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Over 6" in Rome, and rain here. Bunch of snow hogs up that way.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

Was coming down good in Gwinnett when I left the office around 12:45.  Sugarloaf and 316 were kinda slick for a bit.  Warm nose holding strong here at the house in SE Walton.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Was coming down good in Gwinnett when I left the office around 12:45.  Sugarloaf and 316 were kinda slick for a bit.  Warm nose holding strong here at the house in SE Walton.



I love that aviator. I bailed out of Duluth at 1230 and it took me 90 minutes to make it up to Flowery Branch. Roads were passable, but we just had 2+ hours of rush hour confined to the same hour and added to school traffic. I'm gonna go with, interesting, to describe some people's attitudes on it.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I love that aviator. I bailed out of Duluth at 1230 and it took me 90 minutes to make it up to Flowery Branch. Roads were passable, but we just had 2+ hours of rush hour confined to the same hour and added to school traffic. I'm gonna go with, interesting, to describe some people's attitudes on it.



Someone was about 1ft from sliding into my rear bumper on the Sugarloaf bridge over 316.  I will say once I got on 316 people were leaving plenty of space between themselves and the car in front.  Soon as I got to Harbins it switched to rain.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

Maybe 3" here in dville


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

Just had a report that it is starting to stick on the ground in the Jefferson area.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I love that aviator. I bailed out of Duluth at 1230 and it took me 90 minutes to make it up to Flowery Branch. Roads were passable, but we just had 2+ hours of rush hour confined to the same hour and added to school traffic. I'm gonna go with, interesting, to describe some people's attitudes on it.



That's why I left at 1030.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD/Miggy

Why the the local mets "miss" on this yesterday?  Seems that with atlanta and points north of it in the crosshairs for days on multiple models they'd have been a little more aggressive in calling it.  Especially with all the mess now with schools being let out early, etc.  

I didn't hear anyone really sounding the alarm.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> That's why I left at 1030.



I thought about it but it was barely even sticking to the grass and I didn't want to appear like a Chicken Little.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD/Miggy
> 
> Why the the local mets "miss" on this yesterday?  Seems that with atlanta and points north of it in the crosshairs for days on multiple models they'd have been a little more aggressive in calling it.  Especially with all the mess now with schools being let out early, etc.
> 
> I didn't hear anyone really sounding the alarm.



This system is extremely atypical of what we would regularly see that would produce snow. Attempting to read the dynamics that would have to come together to do what it is doing was like trying to nail jello to a tree. 

Frankly, it was the most frustrating forecast I've ever had to attempt to figure out, and even with my best attempts I had to pick the middle of the road. It wasn't until about 3am this morning when we realized the amplification was there to make this a good one, then it was a matter of where and when, and even that is still a moving target.


----------



## rydert (Dec 8, 2017)

2" of rain so far in Kite........


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD/Miggy
> 
> Why the the local mets "miss" on this yesterday?  Seems that with atlanta and points north of it in the crosshairs for days on multiple models they'd have been a little more aggressive in calling it.  Especially with all the mess now with schools being let out early, etc.
> 
> I didn't hear anyone really sounding the alarm.



The set up / forecast was super hard to make.  

Perfect example is downtown Atlanta is covered in Snow and I have 0 here at my house in Dacula.  My parents live 5 miles the way the crow flies from me and they have almost 2".

Also, climate this time of year tells us this is not supposed to happen.  There were also models that showed a whole lot less.

If a MET gets on TV and calls for the amounts they are calling for now, it sets off panic and they have been BURNED so many times.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

Now that I'm home, go away warm nose (that decided to show up AFTER I got here)!


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Looks like the next punch coming through Bama right now is a monsta...and there is redevelopment on the LA/Miss border


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> The set up / forecast was super hard to make.
> 
> Perfect example is downtown Atlanta is covered in Snow and I have 0 here at my house in Dacula.  My parents live 5 miles the way the crow flies from me and they have almost 2".
> 
> ...



They are danged if they do and danged if they don't. A thankless job that doesn't pay near enough money for the time they put into it. 

Check out this Windy Map. I've never in my life seen a setup like this. Trough digging in over Texas hasn't budged in 24 hours. Big high pressure blocking over the Atlantic and the strangest thing of all is the low pressure in the gulf. It is a long slender low that stretches all of the way up off the coast of North Carolina pumping the moisture back in from the ENE. Never in my life have I seen a low like that. 

This system is truly a freak of nature.

https://www.windy.com/?34.573,-84.026,5


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 8, 2017)

How will rds be in and around Smyrna area in the morning? Supposed to be going down from dalton


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> How will rds be in and around Smyrna area in the morning? Supposed to be going down from dalton



Roads everywhere are going to be treacherous. I don't see much wind coming in to dry them off until well after the midnight hours, long after the temps have dropped enough to freeze them over. 

Y'all keep the first responders in your prayers, they're going to be working in some of the deadliest conditions they could be put in overnight tonight.


----------



## Robbie101 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> The set up / forecast was super hard to make.
> 
> Perfect example is downtown Atlanta is covered in Snow and I have 0 here at my house in Dacula.  My parents live 5 miles the way the crow flies from me and they have almost 2".
> 
> ...





With that being said, what's your thoughts on the rest of the winter bud?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Roads everywhere are going to be treacherous. I don't see much wind coming in to dry them off until well after the midnight hours, long after the temps have dropped enough to freeze them over.
> 
> Y'all keep the first responders in your prayers, they're going to be working in some of the deadliest conditions they could be put in overnight tonight.



Absolutely. I saw one wreck already at the Suwanee Bottleneck in PIB and the roads were little more than wet and slushy.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Robbie101 said:


> With that being said, what's your thoughts on the rest of the winter bud?



Oh lawd. Robbie want's a magic crystal ball reading. 

We've got more cold shots coming. How long this cycle will last is up in the air.........literally. If moisture shows up everytime we get a high amplitude troposphere dig then it could get interesting, but that is unlikely...........but then again. So is this storm.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> How will rds be in and around Smyrna area in the morning? Supposed to be going down from dalton



Stupid slick


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

I would have to say the EURO nailed this one, even on the amounts as foolish as we thought they were at first. The second map is one to pay attention to. 






https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQjIhOnU8AA_p3A.jpg


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Robbie101 said:


> With that being said, what's your thoughts on the rest of the winter bud?



You have to think with an early shot like this, it could be foretelling of things to come... we will get more cold shots in the coming weeks.  Another one is inbound next week that will make us really cold.  

It's hard to say... I never saw a storm this early and this potent coming... so who knows...


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Stupid slick



Thanks, I will cancel this trip


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 8, 2017)

Based on that second map the Athens area looks to be a possible dusting... was there a warm nose in place that kept things east of Atlanta from getting in on the action?


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 8, 2017)

It is absolutely dumping huge flakes in Heard right now. It is beautiful.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I would have to say the EURO nailed this one, even on the amounts as foolish as we thought they were at first. The second map is one to pay attention to.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This map must have been done by the Vol grads....Pappy and I can verify 3-4 inches on the Forsyth-Dawson line.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> This map must have been done by the Vol grads....Pappy and I can verify 3-4 inches on the Forsyth-Dawson line.



Don't overlook that word "Estimated"


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> Based on that second map the Athens area looks to be a possible dusting... was there a warm nose in place that kept things east of Atlanta from getting in on the action?



I wouldn't put too much stock in those


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

texwilliams said:


> Based on that second map the Athens area looks to be a possible dusting... was there a warm nose in place that kept things east of Atlanta from getting in on the action?



No.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't overlook that word "Estimated"



Copy that


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 8, 2017)

All those people from ROME down at the Benz for the state championship football game probably going to have issues getting back home.  They hit the jackpot today.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Is there any more heading our way or is this pretty much it for this event?


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> Thanks, I will cancel this trip



Temp should be above freezing by 10 but if the road is covered with snow... it will take a little while to melt.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Is there any more heading our way or is this pretty much it for this event?



There will be more tonight.


----------



## Robbie101 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Stupid slick



Crystal Ball. Man come on!


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

Friend in East Ellijay at 1:30 measured 8 inches. Wonder if they might end up with a foot of snow total by tomorrow?

Just 3 inches here in Woodstock. 10 year Anniversary Today. God bless me with a pretty Snowversary.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

Bout 4” at home in chatsworth on the porch about 1” at the farm on the tn line at my shooting house atm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

Man there's a pile of snow fixin to come out of Bama. 

https://www.wunderground.com/wunder...sures=0&fronts=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

There is another good batch that is loading up and is headed this way now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> There is another good batch that is loading up and is headed this way now.



Trending NW again towards Chattanooga?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> Friend in East Ellijay at 1:30 measured 8 inches. Wonder if they might end up with a foot of snow total by tomorrow?
> 
> Just 3 inches here in Woodstock. 10 year Anniversary Today. God bless me with a pretty Snowversary.



Congrats on the milestone and it's really cool that it's snowing for it.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Trending NW again towards Chattanooga?



Smokey...go over to the met shack and check out the radar.  Just kinda imagine if it kept progressing on the same track.


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 8, 2017)

8" inches with ruler at North Bartow, some places in yard 9.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Smokey...go over to the met shack and check out the radar.  Just kinda imagine if it kept progressing on the same track.



Apparently a lot of the stuff on the radar is not hitting the ground.


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

> It is absolutely dumping huge flakes in Heard right now. It is beautiful.



Wonder if the stripers are schooling?

4-4.5 " here and absolutely pouring big flakes


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Apparently a lot of the stuff on the radar is not hitting the ground.



I saw some model on TV that as the Low was lifting and exiting N Ga., the precip. backfilled and the coverage included NW Ga. (Smokey)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Apparently a lot of the stuff on the radar is not hitting the ground.



We're under the dome.


----------



## howboutthemdawgs (Dec 8, 2017)

ryork said:


> Wonder if the stripers are schooling?
> 
> 4-4.5 " here and absolutely pouring big flakes




Nope! Speaking from experience as of an hour ago


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> This map must have been done by the Vol grads....Pappy and I can verify 3-4 inches on the Forsyth-Dawson line.



Yes he's correct


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Congrats on the milestone and it's really cool that it's snowing for it.



Thanks Striper. Everyone be safe traveling if you have to.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 8, 2017)

Ryork, I don't know, but I bet they are biting somewhere!

It is still coming down here. Probably an inch in the last 20 minutes, if not a hair more.


----------



## Lindseys Grandpa (Dec 8, 2017)

FYI a small section of interstate has collapsed at mm52 I-85 northbound in Coweta if you are going that way be careful.


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

> Ryork, I don't know, but I bet they are biting somewhere!
> 
> It is still coming down here. Probably an inch in the last 20 minutes, if not a hair more.



I'm sure, but I think I'll pass!  Couldn't get there anyway, think we will be stuck here at the bottom of the hill for a little bit. Still just dumping here. Just measured, up to 5".


----------



## GoldDot40 (Dec 8, 2017)

Left Athens at 6:45 this morning and went to Blairsville. By the time I got thru Cleveland and started up Blood Mtn, I was already 2nd guessing my decision. At that point, I was committed. Went on over the mountain and got to my destination. The entire time, the accumulation as steadily increasing. The road plows couldn't keep up it was falling so fast. No way was I going to attempt coming back over Blood Mtn, especially with an empty trailer.

Ending going the long way around through Blue Ridge to Elijay and Hwy 52 back towards Dawsonville to finally pick up Hwy 53 and ride it on home. THAT was a little much. Called dispatch and told them I was going to the house...like it or not.


----------



## lagrangedave (Dec 8, 2017)

Tony, what do you mean by collapsed?


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Cotton balls again here in N Paulding. Measuring over 5” now. Trees cant hold anymore cotton.


----------



## blondiega1 (Dec 8, 2017)

My daughter says we have 4" at the house and it's still snowing. (30157 - 2 miles SE of Dallas)


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

3" and bigger flakes, yes flakes not accumulation, at the Branch.


----------



## Buckfever 2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Cotton balls again here in N Paulding. Measuring over 5” now. Trees cant hold anymore cotton.



About the same here in E Paulding....We keep getting hit with short brown outs


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

Lindseys Grandpa said:


> FYI a small section of interstate has collapsed at mm52 I-85 northbound in Coweta if you are going that way be careful.



Nothing's in the news about it yet, so whatutalkinboutwillis?


----------



## elfiii (Dec 8, 2017)

lagrangedave said:


> Tony, what do you mean by collapsed?



X2.


----------



## doenightmare (Dec 8, 2017)

Had a big branch break due to snow load. According to the local TV mets the system is over performing.


----------



## blondiega1 (Dec 8, 2017)

doenightmare said:


> Had a big branch break due to snow load. According to the local TV mets the system is over performing.



So they're finally catching up to what the GON guys have been saying.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 8, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> So they're finally catching up to what the GON guys have been saying.



Yep, DDD told me that last night when I reported to him directly that it was already sleeting at my place. 

Our Met Shack gurus rock!


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

My son has two balls rolled up 3' in diameter and the snow has filled in where it came from already. Now building an igloo with an igloo. This may well be the deepest snow since '93 here when it is all said and done with. It is as deep as the 2011 snow, easily, maybe more already.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> About the same here in E Paulding....We keep getting hit with short brown outs



The other thing is that it is no longer a wet snow, dry and poofy.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> My son has two balls rolled up 3' in diameter and the snow has filled in where it came from already. Now building an igloo with an igloo. This may well be the deepest snow since '93 here when it is all said and done with. It is as deep as the 2011 snow, easily, maybe more already.



You can hardly see the tracks where I brought the 4 wheeler through earlier today.  I just saw a buddy post 9" at his place a few miles from here.  I haven't been out since lunch, but it's not stopped snowing all day.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Did I miss something?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

elfiii said:


> X2.



x3, can't find anything related on the interwebs about this. 

Just can't get it to do anything here. Sleeted and snowed for about 10 minutes just recently and I thought; Finally, it's starting. Then it stopped. 

Murphy hates me, so I have a plan. We're heading to meet friends for dinner in Watkinsville, about 45 minutes away. Murphy's Law says we are guaranteed to get snowed in there.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

Snowing hard in Woodstock. Got another inch of snow the past 30 mins. Now at 3.5 inches.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> You can hardly see the tracks where I brought the 4 wheeler through earlier today.  I just saw a buddy post 9" at his place a few miles from here.  I haven't been out since lunch, but it's not stopped snowing all day.



Yep my tracks are gone and it's coming down big flakes still.  Surprised


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

This is epic.  When I look at the radar, I can't believe HOW MUCH storm is still left to come through.  I don't know if I will have witnessed anything like it in my 43 years in GA come tomorrow.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

My gosh we would have a 1993 mess if this had all stuck around.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2017)

Its still snowing in the 30132 and has been all day


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

We have pushed over 6" in N Paulding....


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

If this heavy snow keeps up we could have 7 inches by morning in the 30188. Already have 4 inches.


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## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

There will be a VERY heavy snow band that will roll through between 3 and 7 AM.  This will be the back end of the system.  The cold air will not be a problem at that point.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> There will be a VERY heavy snow band that will roll through between 3 and 7 AM.  This will be the back end of the system.  The cold air will not be a problem at that point.



This is crazy heavy snow.  I bet we are close to 4.5" in dawsonville


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 8, 2017)

wooohooo


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> There will be a VERY heavy snow band that will roll through between 3 and 7 AM.  This will be the back end of the system.  The cold air will not be a problem at that point.



Hopefully it can punch through the dome of despair here in SE Walton.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> This is crazy heavy snow.  I bet we are close to 4.5" in dawsonville



David Chandley just had 6" current total posted on the map over the top of our houses.


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## Patriot44 (Dec 8, 2017)

Spots in the yard 7+


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## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

*Still Coming Down*

6.5" now and still coming.......


----------



## georgiaboy0311 (Dec 8, 2017)

6” and some change on my back deck. 30132 cedarcrest area


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> This is crazy heavy snow.  I bet we are close to 4.5" in dawsonville



Just measured right at or just under 4".


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> David Chandley just had 6" current total posted on the map over the top of our houses.



Maybe melted a little I just measured 4" on the back deck.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Maybe melted a little I just measured 4" on the back deck.



Sounds about right


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 8, 2017)

7" here so far, supposed to snow all night and until about noon tomorrow. I have completed my joyous 80-mile commute in 4wd 3rd gear for the day after being out in this stuff all day. It's so magical.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> 7" here so far, supposed to snow all night and until about noon tomorrow. I have completed my joyous 80-mile commute in 4wd 3rd gear for the day after being out in this stuff all day. It's so magical.



I know you hate it


----------



## GA native (Dec 8, 2017)

I have never seen it snow like this in Georgia. Over 12 hours, and it is coming down heavier now.

I'll find out how much weight this deck will hold. 8" and still falling.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 8, 2017)

So after being locked in at 33 degrees for 10 hours, it finally slipped to down to freezing.  Hopefully that is the sign we need to get the cold air flowing in and get those folks in the rain switching over.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Still at work here in Dalton. How does Chattanooga look like it will fare during this next round overnight?


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

Not sure how much we have but it's still slowly falling. Would be great if there were still more to come


----------



## Lindseys Grandpa (Dec 8, 2017)

Dave all I know is there is a hole in interstate just above exit 51 . I never made it up there . I think its got one lane effected.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 8, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> I know you hate it



That's mostly because my job involves making it un-snow for about 4,000 people every time it snows. Which is generally about once-twice a week here for 5-6 months. And keeping them safe and not suing us and stuff. After I drive 40 miles in 4wd dodging idjits to get there. And sometimes being there for 36 hours straight until it is un-snowed. You get desensitized to the magical joyous rapture of snow pretty quick in that situation.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 8, 2017)

My on the ground report is cold and wet in the CSRA.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 8, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> That's mostly because my job involves making it un-snow for about 4,000 people every time it snows. Which is generally about once-twice a week here for 5-6 months. And keeping them safe and not suing us and stuff. After I drive 40 miles in 4wd dodging idjits to get there. And sometimes being there for 36 hours straight until it is un-snowed. You get desensitized to the magical joyous rapture of snow pretty quick in that situation.


Seems like I hear this story every year...


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 8, 2017)

It got up to 36 here today.  Currently 34 and melting.  I just went to town and parking lots are 6 inches deep in slush.  I can hear it melting off the roof.  I just went out to the shed for some sausage and I heard pine limbs breaking on either side of the house.  We'll be lucky to keep power tonight.


----------



## Barfolomew (Dec 8, 2017)

Well, northeast cobb is basically a stay away zone. There is probably 3 inches of snow on the roads and probably 5 or so the grass. All the idjits (great term) are out getting stuck with a combination of slick tires, driving too slow/fast and being a general nuisance. The snow is heavy, so trees are starting to fall/droop onto power lines and across the road. I guess I'll throw the chainsaw in the truck in the morning and see what it looks like.

Kids seem to be having fun.


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

> I heard pine limbs breaking on either side of the house. We'll be lucky to keep power tonight.



That's what is worrying me, I've got two large pines leaning in the front yard, and can hear limbs cracking if I step outside.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Nitram4891 said:


> wooohooo





Y'all be careful out there.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Seems like I hear this story every year...



I don't think he likes snow


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

I'm lovin the snow, until about 7am tomorrow when I have to get somewhere I really gotta be, then not so much.


----------



## olered (Dec 8, 2017)

No power since about 5. Pine trees cracking all around and transformers popping off everywhere. I'm good on snow at this point. Near mars hill and stilesboro in Acworth.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 8, 2017)

olered said:


> No power since about 5. Pine trees cracking all around and transformers popping off everywhere. I'm good on snow at this point. Near mars hill and stilesboro in Acworth.



And THAT'S why I don't like this stuff. My hubby works for the power company. Come on Summa.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 8, 2017)

Just finished cutting up a monster pine! they's starting to pop!


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 8, 2017)

shakey gizzard said:


> Just finished cutting up a monster pine! they's starting to pop!



Don't say that


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Went for a drive as people just 5 minutes down the road from me have 2" of snow.

I have 0".

Highway 316 seems to be a fall line in Gwinnett.  When we crossed over to the West side of 316 it was like another planet.  Snow all in the roads, all in the driveways and yards.

In one of my discos I said there would be a very sharp cutoff somewhere.  Well... I found it.  My kids are so ticked.  My son went with me and he could not believe it.  Massive flakes falling out of the sky, snow everywhere... it was the first real snow we had seen all day.


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Dec 8, 2017)

Hall county looks good. Glad I’m off tomorrow


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Trees down in Cobb, Paulding and City of Atlanta.  There is more coming... this is about to get really serious.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Went for a drive as people just 5 minutes down the road from me have 2" of snow.
> 
> I have 0".
> 
> ...



Hrmm...how does a roadway which runs East/West have a "west side" unless you mean SW of a certain area of 316?  

When I left work in Lawrenceville the cutoff line in that area was Harbins & 316.  West of that was huge flakes, while East was a cold rain.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD how much additional snow do you think we will get?


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Hrmm...how does a roadway which runs East/West have a "west side" unless you mean SW of a certain area of 316?
> 
> When I left work in Lawrenceville the cutoff line in that area was Harbins & 316.  West of that was huge flakes, while East was a cold rain.



It has curves in it.... hmmm......


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> It has curves in it.... hmmm......



Hah.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 8, 2017)

ddd said:


> trees down in cobb, paulding and city of atlanta.  There is more coming... This is about to get really serious.



yuck.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

David Chanley posted a map that shows a jackpot zone of about 10"running from Carrolton over to just West of Gainesville.  

Amazing storm.  Simply amazing.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

I wonder if we'll get anything else. Still seems to be lightly snowing but starting to slow


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

> Trees down in Cobb, Paulding and City of Atlanta. There is more coming... this is about to get really serious.



Yep, I've got three trees down just in my yard so far. Have one fairly large pine tree laying across the driveway. I just measured 9.25" and it still coming down.  I've had my fill, this is enough.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Anybody got any Christmas light snow pics? The pictures are great y'all! So for us Southerners. Do we need to sleep lightly tonight?


----------



## ryork (Dec 8, 2017)

> I wonder if we'll get anything else.



Looking at radar, while the snow is moving SW to NE, the western edge of the snow never seems to leave the eastern side of Birmingham. Just keeps regenerating itself over S AL and heading this way. 

I remember 18" or so with higher drifts out here during the Blizzard of 93 and have had 6-7" a couple times since, but this is nuts.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> I wonder if we'll get anything else. Still seems to be lightly snowing but starting to slow



That's quite a dusting


----------



## keithsto (Dec 8, 2017)

ryork said:


> Looking at radar, while the snow is moving SW to NE, the western edge of the snow never seems to leave the eastern side of Birmingham. Just keeps regenerating itself over S AL and heading this way.
> 
> I remember 18" or so with higher drifts out here during the Blizzard of 93 and have had 6-7" a couple times since, but this is nuts.



And the dang eastern edge of the snow/rain boundary just refuses to move east.  . Temp on my weather station has actually went UP a degree to 36.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 8, 2017)

I've only seen snow a handful of times, I'm from Florida originally, so i still get excited like a ten year old


----------



## Goddard (Dec 8, 2017)

This was about an hour ago in Canton.  Truly unbelievable.  I am almost 46 and always lived in Georgia... I have NEVER seen snow like this.   Thank you DDD, the Messican and Malak for all y’all do!


----------



## CharlesH (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD are we looking at a continual snow train overnight in the Paulding area?  We’re sitting at 10 inches right now. I don’t think the trees can take much more!


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

CharlesH said:


> DDD are we looking at a continual snow train overnight in the Paulding area?  We’re sitting at 10 inches right now. I don’t think the trees can take much more!



Looks like the low is closing off and will reform the deformation band to give some of us 4-5 hours of nice snow.  

The West and NW side of the state have absolutely hit the jackpot.  Unreal.  I would be lying if I said I was not jealous.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

Dang! Some of y’all hit the jackpot. Seems to be melting off the house here even though shows 25 on the porch.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 8, 2017)

I hunted today for the first time in snow. I love it. Wish we saw this every year. Now bring on some more throughout the season!


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

Crazy system


----------



## Water Swat (Dec 8, 2017)

Hope its all gone in the morning. It sucks when you work outside and have no days off. Bring back warm and sunny.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Dec 8, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> I hunted today for the first time in snow. I love it. Wish we saw this every year. Now bring on some more throughout the season!



That's cool! I'll never forget my first snow hunt. I was addicted after that.


----------



## olered (Dec 8, 2017)

This was a couple of hours ago and still coming down. Beautiful just hope the trees hold up. Power back on


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2017)

This is from North Georgia Weather on Facebook.

Guess which side of the blue line DDD and I are one. 

Right after the 2010 event my wife bought a brand new toboggan sled for our son and it hasn't been used since, still has the tags on it. I'm burning that sucker tomorrow.


----------



## olered (Dec 8, 2017)

I'll trade ya snow if you come over and cut and tote wood. I'll give you a 55 gallon drum full!


----------



## Priest (Dec 8, 2017)

So, whats up with this weird split in the radar?  Is that reform happening?


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

Priest said:


> So, whats up with this weird split in the radar?  Is that reform happening?



It's in the process of reloading... check back in about 2-3 hours.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 8, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> I hunted today for the first time in snow. I love it. Wish we saw this every year. Now bring on some more throughout the season!



H22 just had to go in the snow a few years ago. He's from the low country. Said he just had to do it. He still talks about it.


----------



## TBean95 (Dec 8, 2017)

*Amazing Snow!*

Closing in on 11inches in the New Hope Community of Paulding County.  The kids and I had slot of fun once I made it home from school.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2017)

This thing is going to re-load and add 2-3" to what is already out there.  Snow rates could really be hopping especially on the East side of the city.


----------



## Priest (Dec 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> It's in the process of reloading... check back in about 2-3 hours.



Yeah, that wasn't me questioning if you were right that it would reload.... that was me questioning "can you explain what's happening"?

I've never seen a storm split like that, and so suddenly too.  It split right at the freezing line and is clear skys in between.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Will Chattanooga and the surrounding area get in on the action?


----------



## rospaw (Dec 8, 2017)

At noon i had 7-8". Just checked and i'm at 9". Still snowing. 30171 N Bartow


----------



## Matt.M (Dec 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Will Chattanooga and the surrounding area get in on the action?



Nope.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 8, 2017)

Matt.M said:


> Nope.



Well, dang.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 8, 2017)

Temps warmed a bit to 34 imby , evergreens are shedding weight. Waiting on the next round!


----------



## rospaw (Dec 8, 2017)

Pretty Stuff! Great sledding!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 8, 2017)

Fun watching GA get more snow than states north of us for once.  Thanks DDD!


----------



## CharlesH (Dec 9, 2017)

Thanks for the explanation DDD!  It has definitely been something else!  It’s an amazing snow!


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 9, 2017)

I'm only up because our power keeps going off and on.  I think we have 7-8" here in south Dawsonville.  Looks like a little bit more coming on the radar.


----------



## mbl223 (Dec 9, 2017)

Power just went out in sandy springs.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 9, 2017)

I just went out and looked for snow imby. No snow. I mean 0,nada,zilch in rockdale county. Me thinks some folks are hallucinating


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 9, 2017)

Nothing here.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 9, 2017)

Never got below freezing in SE Walton so nothing here either.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 9, 2017)

We are pert near a foot in N Paulding.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 9, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> We are pert near a foot in N Paulding.



That's crazy. Radar shows snow over us now. I haven't been back outside


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

Haven't been out to measure yet, but we're somewhere in the 12-13" range based on how it looks versus the 10" I measured last night. Still snowing........

Bunch of trees down, going to be a fun couple of days cleaning up this mess.


----------



## GA native (Dec 9, 2017)

Just about a foot of snow in Acworth. And it's still falling.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

I'm half a mind to block all you idjits that got all of the good snow. DDD and I work our tail off to see this coming and all we get is a dusting this morning at the tail end of the system. I've got half a mind to turn on my irrigation to wash it all away. 

The level of ticked off I am doesn't begin to describe it.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 9, 2017)

We’ve got at least 6 inches here in north Heard. Just absolutely beautiful.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm half a mind to block all you idjits that got all of the good snow. DDD and I work our tail off to see this coming and all we get is a dusting this morning at the tail end of the system. I've got half a mind to turn on my irrigation to wash it all away.
> 
> The level of ticked off I am doesn't begin to describe it.



We're finally getting pretty heavy snow in the 30094. Everything is starting to turn white


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> We’ve got at least 6 inches here in north Heard. Just absolutely beautiful.



If you weren't an admin I'd block you....


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

> The level of ticked off I am doesn't begin to describe it.



If you want to come work that frustration off, I've got a few days of tree removal to do so far. They're still falling. I'll spring for beverages and cook up some jambalaya or something too!


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 9, 2017)

Still snowing a bit in Woodstock. This is a crazy amount of accumulation. I've never seen this much in the couple years I've lived here


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

ryork said:


> If you want to come work that frustration off, I've got a few days of tree removal to do so far. They're still falling. I'll spring for beverages and cook up some jambalaya or something too!



If you didn't live in East Alabama I might consider it, although that Jambalaya offer is mighty tempting. Let me think about it.

I know how to make this mess stop. I practice Murphy's Law and am quite successful with it. All I gotta do is bring the new toboggan bought after the 2010 storm out and show it to the sky and it will stop immediatly.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 9, 2017)

Snow lines usually set up more east to west. This snow is more north to South so all of east GA got a raw deal. Maybe next storm we’ll see some flakes. Mother Nature at its finest!!


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

*Snow Pics*

11.5" to 13" depending on where you measure. Has finally stopped!

The kids and I went for a walk down the creek that runs through our property yesterday, was beautiful then. That was about 8" ago or so.  Won't be doing that today, don't need to get whacked in the head!  The noise of pine trees popping is like a bad ice storm.


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

> If you didn't live in East Alabama I might consider it, although that Jambalaya offer is mighty tempting. Let me think about it.
> 
> I know how to make this mess stop. I practice Murphy's Law and am quite successful with it. All I gotta do is bring the new toboggan bought after the 2010 storm out and show it to the sky and it will stop immediatly.



Big difference in the 10 miles from my house to the AL line!  E AL does show up in force at the local Wal-Mart though.....

That sounds like a good idea.  My daughter broke two plastic sleds last winter sliding in that winter storm we had early in January that was 80% sleet.  We had not bought a replacement yet.


----------



## lagrangedave (Dec 9, 2017)

I thought he was talking about a sock cap.............


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

> I thought he was talking about a sock cap.............



I think toboggan is a fancy synonym for sled.....  or in my neck of the woods growing up an old car hood or a big cardboard box!


----------



## Msteele (Dec 9, 2017)

I live off of Acworth-Dallas highway.  Transformers started blowing up like the 4th of July from 4pm till 10pm last night.  Still no power.  All the groceries are buried somewhere on the back deck.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 9, 2017)

not going to get as much as the west or north side of Atlanta but it's turning everything white


----------



## ryork (Dec 9, 2017)

> I live off of Acworth-Dallas highway. Transformers started blowing up like the 4th of July from 4pm till 10pm last night. Still no power. All the groceries are buried somewhere on the back deck.



I'm thankful we've somehow managed to keep power, but tons of our friends/family around here are out.  I'm sure GA Power/Carroll EMC is having some issues getting to some of the problems.  

Good idea with the old school refrigeration!


----------



## GoldDot40 (Dec 9, 2017)

My work called this morning and asked if I could come and and take loads to Dawsonville and Cleveland...how 'bout....NO! Today's my day off anyway...leave me alone.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

ryork said:


> Big difference in the 10 miles from my house to the AL line!  E AL does show up in force at the local Wal-Mart though.....
> 
> That sounds like a good idea.  My daughter broke two plastic sleds last winter sliding in that winter storm we had early in January that was 80% sleet.  We had not bought a replacement yet.



This thing looks like a boogie board for the ocean with four sets of handles on it. Would be cool to have a foot of snow to try it in, but that will never happen here, just everywhere else. 

I think I'll donate it to the Florida Toys for Tots...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

GoldDot40 said:


> My work called this morning and asked if I could come and and take loads to Dawsonville and Cleveland...how 'bout....NO! Today's my day off anyway...leave me alone.



Loads of what?


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 9, 2017)

The "models"done "under did it"!


----------



## Msteele (Dec 9, 2017)

ryork said:


> I'm thankful we've somehow managed to keep power, but tons of our friends/family around here are out.  I'm sure GA Power/Carroll EMC is having some issues getting to some of the problems.
> 
> Good idea with the old school refrigeration!



I found a inverter last night I forgot I bought for camping.  I hooked a battery to it and ran my cpap machine so I could sleep good all night.


----------



## Msteele (Dec 9, 2017)

I guess we will see some clown maps come to life with storm totals soon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Msteele said:


> I guess we will see some clown maps come to life with storm totals soon.



Geeze guys, the estimate maps are just that, estimates based on radar returns. When they get all of the official reports in they will do a more accurate storm total report, but there will still be variances due to the fact that snow bands do not dump quantities equally across the board. 

Cut them some slack. They also amended the forecast before this event started, as evidenced by the NWS briefing I provided that 99% of you never bothered to listen to.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 9, 2017)

It's the nice powder snow too. I just went out, no traffic lights, many without power, trees down EVERYWHERE. Roads are not that bad.  Saw the weather channel setting up about two miles from the hizzle.


----------



## bucktail (Dec 9, 2017)

Powder Springs 101/2 inches. Hard pack surface. Limbs everywhere and still cracking. I can't believe we still have power! Blue flashed all night and this morning.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 9, 2017)

The cold rain switched to snow here in SE Walton around sunrise.  Big fat flakes have been flying ever since.  Problem is that it is holding at 34 degrees, so zero accumulation.


----------



## CharlesH (Dec 9, 2017)

DDD and Miguel, I thank you both for providing input before and during the event!  I was mentally prepared for snow and was able to tell others.  I never would have believed we would have 12” in NE Paulding, but I’ll take it!  I love following y’all for the weather because you shoot us straight!


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Geeze guys, the estimate maps are just that, estimates based on radar returns. When they get all of the official reports in they will do a more accurate storm total report, but there will still be variances due to the fact that snow bands do not dump quantities equally across the board.
> 
> Cut them some slack. They also amended the forecast before this event started, as evidenced by the NWS briefing I provided that 99% of you never bothered to listen to.



I watched it...thanks for sharing.  I'm gonna say we got around 10 inches, depending on the melt factor.  If the ground would have been frozen in the beginning, who knows.  I know that it dumped for a LONG time.  My Magnolias and Green Giants look like ragdolls...hoping they aren't a total loss.  Power is still on, so we're good for now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I watched it...thanks for sharing.  I'm gonna say we got around 10 inches, depending on the melt factor.  If the ground would have been frozen in the beginning, who knows.  I know that it dumped for a LONG time.  My Magnolias and Green Giants look like ragdolls...hoping they aren't a total loss.  Power is still on, so we're good for now.



If we had frozen ground, which means the tree branches would have been frozen too, we would have a disaster on hand. 

Just heard this is the first time this type of snow event has happened in Georgia since 1929. For everyone I know, that makes it a "once in a lifetime" event. So now y'all have a story to tell your grandkids one day.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 9, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I watched it...thanks for sharing.  I'm gonna say we got around 10 inches, depending on the melt factor.  If the ground would have been frozen in the beginning, who knows.  I know that it dumped for a LONG time.  My Magnolias and Green Giants look like ragdolls...hoping they aren't a total loss.  Power is still on, so we're good for now.



I'd say 10" is about right and it's still snowing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

CharlesH said:


> DDD and Miguel, I thank you both for providing input before and during the event!  I was mentally prepared for snow and was able to tell others.  I never would have believed we would have 12” in NE Paulding, but I’ll take it!  I love following y’all for the weather because you shoot us straight!


Thank you sir. We do it because we are flat out 100% weather nerds, but also as fellow stewards of the outdoors we  believe y'all deserve the truth, as we see it at least. Sometimes we get it wrong too.


----------



## GoldDot40 (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Loads of what?



Gasoline


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 9, 2017)

Over a foot in a lot of places around here. About 8" in my yard. Still snowing.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 9, 2017)

The power has bounced off and on since 3 am this morning. I'm glad it comes right back.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 9, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> I'd say 10" is about right and it's still snowing.



Yeah, I can measure between 7-8" on the deck railing and a couple of inches melted between the morning and afternoon rounds yesterday.  I think 10" is a fair estimate for what fell.


----------



## Msteele (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Geeze guys, the estimate maps are just that, estimates based on radar returns. When they get all of the official reports in they will do a more accurate storm total report, but there will still be variances due to the fact that snow bands do not dump quantities equally across the board.
> 
> Cut them some slack. They also amended the forecast before this event started, as evidenced by the NWS briefing I provided that 99% of you never bothered to listen to.



I didn't mean anything negative about maps or weather peeps.  Just wanting to see storm totals when it's all said and done.  It's going to be a while for power.  The outages are going up instead of down.  Good to see some sunshine now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 9, 2017)

Nothing here in Flintstone. At least I got to see an inch or two in Dalton yesterday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Msteele said:


> I didn't mean anything negative about maps or weather peeps.  Just wanting to see storm totals when it's all said and done.  It's going to be a while for power.  The outages are going up instead of down.  Good to see some sunshine now.



Yep, just glad it wasn't ice. Praying for all of the good men and women that are having to work in this mess to get the outages fixed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Snapped a couple of the blizzard DDD and I got.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Just as a comparison of coverage, this is a satellite view of the snow we got on January 6th 2017.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Snapped a couple of the blizzard DDD and I got.



Be thankful you got SOME accumulation.  Came down hard here for almost 3 hours but ZERO accumulation.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Honestly, when I started this thread I thought it would be the last one for 2017. Outside of the January tornado's in SOWEGA it has been a fairly uneventful year, but here 11 months later that all changed. 

Keep up the good work posting pics and reports from your area, and if you don't mind post the city or nearest location. I might even start a thread so we can filter out the banter and get our own map of storm totals made based on your accurate information. Try to include a measuring tape or stick to back up your data in with the location information and I'll see what I can do. 

You folks are the best.


----------



## dwhee87 (Dec 9, 2017)

8.5 inches in East Cobb. Lost an 8-inch pine in the back yard about 9pm last night, and a couple large branches on my giant magnolia this am. One landed on the roof, but no apparent damage at this point. Heard a big crash about 7am and looked out to see a 6-inch dia or so branch from a big pine had crashed down just behind my truck, so went out and moved the truck out to the end of the drive, away from all the trees. 

Power went out about 8pm first time last night, then back on about 11, then went out 2 more times during the night. Only one flicker this am so far.

Be safe, all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

Here it is, and please follow the parameters needed to accurately post this information as I will attempt to give it to the NWS for their use. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=11013671#post11013671


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 9, 2017)

10 inches IMBY! No power since 2 am.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 9, 2017)

Roads weren't bad this morning, more slush than anything, very wet. But that means it'll probably freeze over tonight


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 9, 2017)

My dog is having none of it


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2017)

I have to give North Georgia Weather (FB) and the Euro props. Though it didn't come down the way the map shows, they nailed a snow event for the SE on Dec 8th to the very day from way back on October 25th. 

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10948802&postcount=439


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 9, 2017)

Looks like about 7 inches total here in Centralhatchee. Warming up quick and melting fast.


----------



## mountainpass (Dec 9, 2017)

Well wasn't able to upload a pic from phone but 6 miles east of Jasper at 1800' elevation we got 7"


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 9, 2017)

Power is back on at mine! I tip my hat to those guys for doing what they do!


----------



## hmaddox (Dec 9, 2017)

Acworth, GA 

Thanks for giving us the heads up, as always GON - DDD, Miguel, thanks for giving us the true forecast!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 9, 2017)

I just got in from the woods.  I walked an old logging road looking for tracks.  Didn't find much.  Elevation was 2900.  Accumulation was 12" everywhere I walked, with some areas closer to 14"  Down here in civilization, it's more like 10"


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 9, 2017)

Just got in from pushing snow with the skid steer. Got mine and the neighbors pretty clean. It should at least have a fighting chance to dry out by dark. Anything not dry by dark is going to be a mess in the morning.


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2017)

What a historic storm!!!  Just incredible!

Going to put a post storm write up in the Metshack.  Never saw these amounts coming.  

The NAM and the Canadian model did though.  Congrats to everyone enjoying their snow!


----------



## 3ringer (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have to give North Georgia Weather (FB) and the Euro props. Though it didn't come down the way the map shows, they nailed a snow event for the SE on Dec 8th to the very day from way back on October 25th.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10948802&postcount=439



Wow, impressive


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2017)

Post Storm break down...  With pictures.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=11013961&posted=1#post11013961


----------



## snarlinbear (Dec 9, 2017)

Thanks for all you and Miggy do!  Both of you guys are my "Go to information ..."   Are ya willing to give us a longer term prognostication?


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Thanks for all you and Miggy do!  Both of you guys are my "Go to information ..."   Are ya willing to give us a longer term prognostication?



I looked down the road this morning... nothing.  

Should have a decent look at Christmas by Wednesday or Thursday of this week.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 9, 2017)

So, when's the next one?


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 9, 2017)

Congrats Miggy and DDD and all you other weather geeks! What a ride!!!! Here are my pics.


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2017)

Paymaster said:


> Congrats Miggy and DDD and all you other weather geeks! What a ride!!!! Here are my pics.



Love that picture of the road and trees.  Awesome!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 9, 2017)

First time in 13 years I got her stuck...


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 9, 2017)

Nice pic here


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Post Storm break down...  With pictures.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=11013961&posted=1#post11013961



Excellent analysis....thank you.

Was Benji a "Miller A" setup?


----------



## EricWS (Dec 9, 2017)

Lost my truck yesterday. My wife was driving and 3 year old son in the back seat, coming home from picking him up at daycare. Thank the good Lord neither of them were seriously hurt. There was a 4x5 roll of hay in the bed that flipped up and over the cab just barely missing my son's head. Y'all be careful when this stuff is on the roads.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 9, 2017)

Nice pic here


----------



## Priest (Dec 9, 2017)

EricWS said:


> Lost my truck yesterday. My wife was driving and 3 year old son in the back seat, coming home from picking him up at daycare. Thank the good Lord neither of them were seriously hurt. There was a 4x5 roll of hay in the bed that flipped up and over the cab just barely missing my son's head. Y'all be careful when this stuff is on the roads.



Sorry to hear that. I'm glad your family is okay. I bought a set of Blizzak ice tires and got them mounted on some steel wheels for my wife's truck... Bolted them on Tuesday. Man that thing grips on snow and ice!

This is what I was scared of happening


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 9, 2017)

Extended forecast for the week says 50s and low 60s during the day? Crazy, going from heavy jacket weather to t-shirts in the span of a week. Im hoping they have it wrong. Today's temp was great, at least to me


----------



## normaldave (Dec 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Thank you sir. We do it because we are flat out 100% weather nerds, but also as fellow stewards of the outdoors we  believe y'all deserve the truth, as we see it at least. Sometimes we get it wrong too.



Simple. 
I joined the forum mostly because of winter weather discussions, (and when Spring came around, well you know the rest of the story...)  So often, fellow enthusiasts here were right far more than wrong, and at least all the relevant data was in one place, so I could make an informed decision.

Keep up the good work fellas...

Here's another pic: heading back to the house after a walk in the woods.


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2017)

EricWS said:


> Lost my truck yesterday. My wife was driving and 3 year old son in the back seat, coming home from picking him up at daycare. Thank the good Lord neither of them were seriously hurt. There was a 4x5 roll of hay in the bed that flipped up and over the cab just barely missing my son's head. Y'all be careful when this stuff is on the roads.



Sorry about your wife, but glad everyone was ok.

From what I read roads north of 285 are bad.  Secondary roads that is.  Everyone be safe.


----------



## rospaw (Dec 10, 2017)

Nice surprise this early in Dec. I ended up at 9.25".... WOW 

From my breezeway  :


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Dec 10, 2017)

Ready for another!!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 10, 2017)

Snowed another half-inch last night here. Snow in the forecast for Tuesday, also. Then more snow Thursday night.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 10, 2017)

Aight, I am done with this stuff, how do it go? It's all frozen now too....


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Snowed another half-inch last night here. Snow in the forecast for Tuesday, also. Then more snow Thursday night.



I'd be tired of it already


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 10, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I'd be tired of it already



I already was after the one we got the day before Halloween.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> I already was after the one we got the day before Halloween.



Roger that! I've got an absolute mess here! Trees and tree limbs down everywhere!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 10, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Roger that! I've got an absolute mess here! Trees and tree limbs down everywhere!



Ain't it magical?


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 10, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Roger that! I've got an absolute mess here! Trees and tree limbs down everywhere!



You need help?


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Ain't it magical?



Im on cloud 9


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> You need help?



I got the driveway passable... Thats all im doing for now. Thanks for the offer though.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

This is what I had to deal with just to get to the mailbox. Its totally carma getting me for taunting mothernature all the time bet she can't do it again


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

It wasnt all bad... I did get to use the tractor and the chainsaw!!!


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 10, 2017)

Its all fun and games till the trees start coming down!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

shakey gizzard said:


> Its all fun and games till the trees start coming down!



Yep.. Had a widow maker hit the ground right behind me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> This is what I had to deal with just to get to the mailbox. Its totally carma getting me for taunting mothernature all the time bet she can't do it again



Well, watching the 5 days leading up to Christmas. My access to the Euro only goes to the 17th and the cold troughs coming through up til then aren't as deep. 

The 17th shows a slight, very slight chance up in NE GA for some snow. But considering yesterday that snow was mainly in the Smoky's it is a move in the right direction. 

Will have to keep an eye on any changes over the next week of models.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 10, 2017)

shakey gizzard said:


> Its all fun and games till the trees start coming down!



And that's why I don't like cold. I'll take this any day.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

shakey gizzard said:


> Its all fun and games till the trees start coming down!



Yep.. Had a widow maker hit the ground right behind me.


----------



## ryork (Dec 10, 2017)

We cleared snow/ice off about 400 ft of driveway this morning. It's heavily shaded, angled away from the sun, and very steep.  This stuff would have been there until the middle of the week in places.  Had to cut two trees off of it.  Just got them out of the way, will do the rest of the cleaning up and get the other trees later.  I've got gutters leaning and bending off the house now too.... Yep, I'm tired of it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2017)

ryork said:


> We cleared snow/ice off about 400 ft of driveway this morning. It's heavily shaded, angled away from the sun, and very steep.  This stuff would have been there until the middle of the week in places.  Had to cut two trees off of it.  Just got them out of the way, will do the rest of the cleaning up and get the other trees later.  I've got gutters leaning and bending off the house now too.... Yep, I'm tired of it!



So are y'all saying GON is going to have a lot less people wishing for snow the rest of the season?


----------



## Msteele (Dec 10, 2017)

It has been fun.  Ready for the power to come back on.  PC schools are closed for Monday already. 

That was enough snow for the winter for us.

I'm sure we will have maybe two more small chances later on.


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So are y'all saying GON is going to have a lot less people wishing for snow the rest of the season?



I’m in the camp that never wanted it to start with...

This will do me for the winter and would like to cancel all orders for any more of it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2017)

Msteele said:


> It has been fun.  Ready for the power to come back on.  PC schools are closed for Monday already.
> 
> That was enough snow for the winter for us.
> 
> I'm sure we will have maybe two more small chances later on.





Greene728 said:


> I’m in the camp that never wanted it to start with...
> 
> This will do me for the winter and would like to cancel all orders for any more of it.



CMC and EURO are a couple of days ahead of the GFS on this potential, but we are also talking 15 days out so these are clown maps, but all three are hinting at it. The CMC and EURO keep the event more to our north, the GFS not so much. We will be watching it for sure.


----------



## ryork (Dec 10, 2017)

> So are y'all saying GON is going to have a lot less people wishing for snow the rest of the season



Can't speak for anyone else.  Extreme weather of all kinds does interest me, and following it's development is intriguing. Have been in two tornadoes in my life including a total loss of a house, so while it is a fascinating phenomenon, don't want to ever see or hear of one again!

I like a little snow ever now and then, the kids have fun with it. Personally, I like the post cold front days where it flurries off and on most all day. Pretty to look at, but doesn't mess with your life.  If we get a month of that this winter, I'd be all for it. 

The photo of the creek on our property, beautiful no doubt. That's the good part, I sat there on a stump yesterday for 30 min or so and just took it in.... The second is actually the road at the top of our drive-way. There were trees all across it past the one in the background of the photo. It is still not passable in a few places. We've got tons of friends in hotels as they've been out of power since Fri evening, the local water plant is down, and looks like I've got an insurance claim as a result.  I'll pass on all that for sure!

Now there's a ton of folks in Haralson/Carroll counties moaning and groaning about this that and the other, no power, can't drink the water, no water, schools did or didn't do this etc. Folks have chuckled at me over the years because I bought a generator, always keep gasoline, food, water, batteries, etc on hand in excess etc. Well..... what the county or city do or don't do isn't that big of deal to me at this point, we're good with whatever happens.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 10, 2017)

We’re ready for snow here in the CSRA. We received nothing but days of cold rain!!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 10, 2017)

Here's a few pics for Miggy and DDD who didn't get in on all the fun everybody else did.  

I went to check on my folks, who had no power Saturday morning and snapped a few pics in their driveway.


----------



## GoldDot40 (Dec 10, 2017)

Blood Mountain on Hwy 129 between Cleveland and Blairsville about 9:15 Friday morning. It accumulated fast.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 10, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Here's a few pics for Miggy and DDD who didn't get in on all the fun everybody else did.
> 
> I went to check on my folks, who had no power Saturday morning and snapped a few pics in their driveway.





GoldDot40 said:


> Blood Mountain on Hwy 129 between Cleveland and Blairsville about 9:15 Friday morning. It accumulated fast.



very nice pics guys


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2017)

Great pics guys!


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2017)

The cold weather potential around the week of Christmas looks to be good right now.  Will there be moisture?  I am not sure but when the players get on the field in the way they are going to be moving around the next few weeks the potential for another winter weather event increases.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 11, 2017)

Nice balmy 18* here this morning.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Dec 11, 2017)

Those photos look like heaven. What a view


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 11, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Nice balmy 18* here this morning.



24 here. It actually frosted on the roof's where the sun exposed the shingles.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 11, 2017)

Local station out of chattanooga is giving NGA a few chances this week for snow


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 11, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Nice balmy 18* here this morning.



Was 19 when I left the house.  Truck read 17 when I parked to go hunting.  Not a hint of breeze.  Chimney smoke just sat, hanging in the air.  I had to come out early so my wife could go to work.  And I didn't see a thing.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 11, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Was 19 when I left the house.  Truck read 17 when I parked to go hunting.  Not a hint of breeze.  Chimney smoke just sat, hanging in the air.  I had to come out early so my wife could go to work.  And I didn't see a thing.



Still beats a day stuck in a cubicle farm!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Still beats a day stuck in a cubicle farm!



^^^True dat^^^^


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

Make sure y'all get your snow survey posts in on the survey thread. Please stick to the parameters I set so I can use your data. The survey will end at noon.


----------



## greg_n_clayton (Dec 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure y'all get your snow survey posts in on the survey thread. Please stick to the parameters I set so I can use your data. The survey will end at noon.



Hard to help ya out around here. The depths were all over the place. I am talking 2-3 inches in less than a mile !! It ranged from 7-12 inches in a 5-6 mile distance. Sorry my friend !!


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> Local station out of chattanooga is giving NGA a few chances this week for snow



Correct.  It's similar to this past week's event, however, many of the models have not locked onto it.  Also, the ones that have shown it have waffled back and forth.  This is for the Friday / Saturday time frame.

GFS shows some VERY light snow falling randomly on Wednesday.  Nothing major at this point.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

greg_n_clayton said:


> Hard to help ya out around here. The depths were all over the place. I am talking 2-3 inches in less than a mile !! It ranged from 7-12 inches in a 5-6 mile distance. Sorry my friend !!



That is exactly how precipitation totals work and also the point I was trying to make earlier about the NWS totals being "estimates". I'm only about 5 miles from DDD, if that and he got 2"+ and I got maybe a 1/4". Yet we both fall under the same estimate total on the NWS map. 

It is what it is. If they were to take every valid and supported with proper data report it would take them months to construct a precip map that was accurate down to the mile.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> Correct.  It's similar to this past week's event, however, many of the models have not locked onto it.  Also, the ones that have shown it have waffled back and forth.
> 
> GFS shows some VERY light snow falling randomly on Wednesday.  Nothing major at this point.



CMC is even worse for the 28th. Not only are they all over the place on what, where, and how much or none, they are all over the place on when. It tells me that it isn't a valid potential yet and we need to be about 7 days out to get a better grasp on this. 

If it becomes as frustrating to nail down as that last Freak Storm anomaly I will have to just go ahead and shave my head to hide the bare patches that are left on my head from pulling my hair out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

Here's the current EURO clown map for Christmas, from Dr. Ryan Maue on Twitter.
That is one heck of a coverage map.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Weather forecast of a White Christmas ... map shows probability of at least 1-inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.  Based on most recent ECMWF EPS but in the next 14-days, much can change -- like Santa skipping your house b/c of you were naughty. pic.twitter.com/tBmUT5AuKM</p>— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) December 11, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 11, 2017)

Hard to believe those pics are from Georgia. Just beautiful


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Dec 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> CMC is even worse for the 28th. Not only are they all over the place on what, where, and how much or none, they are all over the place on when. It tells me that it isn't a valid potential yet and we need to be about 7 days out to get a better grasp on this.
> 
> If it becomes as frustrating to nail down as that last Freak Storm anomaly I will have to just go ahead and shave my head to hide the bare patches that are left on my head from pulling my hair out.


Suuure, pulling it out. We just had lunch, I know the troof. 

All I ask is that it hold off until the 28th. I'll be coming back home on the 27th and need clear roads.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2017)

I have to apologize, I stated it was the CMC. It is actually the CFS. Word of caution to deniers of the CFS, it actually has performed well this winter thus far, for a long range model. The other models have come into alignment with it closer to the time of events.


----------



## Priest (Dec 11, 2017)

This was at NOON from Kennesaw to Canton.

I'm pulling the CCTV footage from outside at work over the 24 hours and will compile a video of it as well.


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 11, 2017)

You made it!


----------



## Priest (Dec 11, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> You made it!



 I did, but it got hairy at the end on all season tires.

I'm so glad we shod my wife's truck with Blizzak tires for the winter. She drove through worse with no problems.  I drove her's Saturday morning early and pulled trees out of the road while those tires bit into the ice and snow.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you didn't live in East Alabama I might consider it, although that Jambalaya offer is mighty tempting. Let me think about it.
> 
> I know how to make this mess stop. I practice Murphy's Law and am quite successful with it. All I gotta do is bring the new toboggan bought after the 2010 storm out and show it to the sky and it will stop immediatly.





lagrangedave said:


> I thought he was talking about a sock cap.............







ryork said:


> I think toboggan is a fancy synonym for sled.....  or in my neck of the woods growing up an old car hood or a big cardboard box!




That's the Yankee in him coming out!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 11, 2017)

I aint skeared


----------



## nickel back (Dec 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have to apologize, I stated it was the CMC. It is actually the CFS. Word of caution to deniers of the CFS, it actually has performed well this winter thus far, for a long range model. The other models have come into alignment with it closer to the time of events.



Go ahead and give it the NW jog


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 12, 2017)

Updates ?


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 12, 2017)

I seen some chatter on Twitter between them


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 12, 2017)

> Winter Weather Advisory
> 
> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
> ...



32 and snowing here right now. 16 tonight with 26 mph wind gusts at my elevation. Yay.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 12, 2017)

Anybody want to go camping at 5,000' in the Smokies tonight? It's a different world up there.



> Today
> 
> Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 21 by 5pm. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
> 
> ...


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 12, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Anybody want to go camping at 5,000' in the Smokies tonight?



We could have a very memorable brookie trip.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 12, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> We could have a very memorable brookie trip.



Bring a steel tpost to break the ice in the creek.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Anybody want to go camping at 5,000' in the Smokies tonight? It's a different world up there.





Only if I can bring my tipi.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 12, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Only if I can bring my tipi.



I wouldn't mind that.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 12, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Anybody want to go camping at 5,000' in the Smokies tonight? It's a different world up there.



I just changed my mind.  I went outside for a bit at lunch.  It's like 30 degrees with a 15mph wind.  It's a might airish.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Updates ?



Sure. Snownado's are real.

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">?️ SNOWNADO?! ?️<br>A hiker captured this stunning moment as snow devil formed at the Tatra National Park in Poland​. pic.twitter.com/I6Ybx4GHOL</p>— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) December 12, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## snarlinbear (Dec 12, 2017)

Come on guys.  It's colder than a witch's heart .  There has to be something going on.  Get the beagles dancing or something.  I'm craving another dose of natures winter beauty, just prepare for her!


----------



## CamoDawg85 (Dec 13, 2017)

This ^^^


----------



## nickel back (Dec 13, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Come on guys.  It's colder than a witch's heart .  There has to be something going on.  Get the beagles dancing or something.  I'm craving another dose of natures winter beauty, just prepare for her!



it will be spring next weekend


----------



## Milkman (Dec 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have to apologize, I stated it was the CMC. It is actually the CFS. Word of caution to deniers of the CFS, it actually has performed well this winter thus far, for a long range model. The other models have come into alignment with it closer to the time of events.



Ain’t winter yet


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2017)

Milkman said:


> Ain’t winter yet



Well, it is Meteorological Winter. That started December 1st. Astronomical Winter begins on December 21st. What do a bunch of stars know about the seasons?


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, it is Meteorological Winter. That started December 1st. Astronomical Winter begins on December 21st. What do a bunch of stars know about the seasons?



You tell him bro...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> You tell him bro...



Get back up on your roof and tell us what's coming. 
Oh, I was in yo hood yesterday, up in Acworth. Bout froze my tail off wif all dat snow still on the ground and roofs.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Get back up on your roof and tell us what's coming.
> Oh, I was in yo hood yesterday, up in Acworth. Bout froze my tail off wif all dat snow still on the ground and roofs.



You shoulda give me a call


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 13, 2017)

00Z GFS looks promising.  

Waiting on the smart people to comment.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Dec 13, 2017)

Oh yeah! White Christmas for sure!


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 13, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Oh yeah! White Christmas for sure!



Don't say that, I have to have all relatives gone the day after Christmas.  I don't want delays . Love em but 4 days is too much.


----------



## 3ringer (Dec 13, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> 00Z GFS looks promising.
> 
> Waiting on the smart people to comment.



I was going to comment but I see where you said smart people.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 13, 2017)

3ringer said:


> I was going to comment but I see where you said smart people.



Smart man.

My capabilities start and end with being able to link the map.

There is no analytical insight to be offered!  

Come on down DDD, Miggy, malak


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 13, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Smart man.
> 
> My capabilities start and end with being able to link the map.
> 
> ...



Come forth, GON Weather Trinity, and prognosticate to the masses!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2017)

I ain't got no smarts, but this feller does. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 288-hour forecast is now valid for Christmas morning!  <br>Probability or chances of a White Christmas are actually increasing across the Plains -- but a lot more needs to change to get > 50% chance.  This map is forecast prob (%) of at least an inch on the ground. pic.twitter.com/awOJLUwwtL</p>— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) December 13, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## malak05 (Dec 13, 2017)

GFS has been bouncing around some winter solutions past few days runs in the Dec. 23r thru 25th range, EURO not so impressed still not inside 7 days so not much to dive into at moment we shall see how it goes

BUT... GFS 18z run today I'm sharing for pure entertainment cause it's nothing but hearsay this far out but boy it would be mother of all ice storms i guess is you wanted a 1800s christmas this would be for you... you know no power etc


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2017)

malak05 said:


> GFS has been bouncing around some winter solutions past few days runs in the Dec. 23r thru 25th range, EURO not so impressed still not inside 7 days so not much to dive into at moment we shall see how it goes
> 
> BUT... GFS 18z run today I'm sharing for pure entertainment cause it's nothing but hearsay this far out but boy it would be mother of all ice storms i guess is you wanted a 1800s christmas this would be for you... you know no power etc



The GFS is the pachinko ball of the meteorology world.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The GFS is the pachinko ball of the meteorology world.



Yeah Euro has a nice mild week of Christmas although ultimately CMC/NAM currently hold the title from last event Euro hung in there


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 13, 2017)

malak05 said:


> GFS has been bouncing around some winter solutions past few days runs in the Dec. 23r thru 25th range, EURO not so impressed still not inside 7 days so not much to dive into at moment we shall see how it goes
> 
> BUT... GFS 18z run today I'm sharing for pure entertainment cause it's nothing but hearsay this far out but boy it would be mother of all ice storms i guess is you wanted a 1800s christmas this would be for you... you know no power etc



Nope, throw that solution in the trash. I don’t like it at all lol


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2017)

Christmas time talk is starting to hop on Twitter.  The GFS is advertising some interesting runs.  Also, long range models showing dumps of cold air piling South Eastward despite the NWS saying we are to warm up.  

The SE Ridge that was modeled to be so strong during the next two weeks has been shoved really far south.  The snow we had last weekend and the SE warm ridge not coming back as far north as first thought has things cooler and will allow more air to drop NE.

Also of note, there is blocking that is forcing the cold south that was originally thought not to be available.

What does all this mean?  If the cold hangs around like I am beginning to think it will and low pressure systems are tapping gulf moisture... well... it could get interesting sometime during that time frame.

I don't get lost in the details of long range models.  Moisture, depth of cold... all those things will change 1000 times between now and then.  What I do pay attention to is if the GFS, EURO, CFS, JMA start advertising cold and possible storminess.

Right now, some of them are advertising just that, some are not as impressive.


----------



## mark-7mag (Dec 13, 2017)

Well here we go. I don’t need to miss anymore work because of the weather this month


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2017)

Looking even closer there is a threat a week from Friday before we even think about Christmas snow.  

The pattern looks stormy and cold going forward.  I would suggest Fire Wood, alternative light and heat sources.  Start thinking about it now.   I am not saying its going to happen, what I am saying is when everyone else realizes its going to happen, preparing is too late.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 14, 2017)

DDD just said on twitter that yesterday the GFS promised a shot at a white christmas.  Now it is saying get out the shorts and flip flops.

I think Miggy broke it again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 14, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD just said on twitter that yesterday the GFS promised a shot at a white christmas.  Now it is saying get out the shorts and flip flops.
> 
> I think Miggy broke it again.



That is why it is called the ;

Global
Fantasy
System model.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 14, 2017)

DDD said:


> Looking even closer there is a threat a week from Friday before we even think about Christmas snow.
> 
> The pattern looks stormy and cold going forward.  I would suggest Fire Wood, alternative light and heat sources.  Start thinking about it now.   I am not saying its going to happen, what I am saying is when everyone else realizes its going to happen, preparing is too late.



Threat like ice?


----------



## snarlinbear (Dec 14, 2017)

Has this site died or am I in the twilight zone.  I've checked here a dozen times and there are no posts.  Please... will a genuine weather geek give us an update.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 14, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Has this site died or am I in the twilight zone.  I've checked here a dozen times and there are no posts.  Please... will a genuine weather geek give us an update.



There are none to give at present.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 14, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Has this site died or am I in the twilight zone.  I've checked here a dozen times and there are no posts.  Please... will a genuine weather geek give us an update.



Just stepped outside to light the smoker and it feels like it's about 29.  Hope this helps.


----------



## rospaw (Dec 14, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Has this site died or am I in the twilight zone.  I've checked here a dozen times and there are no posts.  Please... will a genuine weather geek give us an update.



It's cold outside and will warm tomorrow  toothlessbear! Might rain some next week so carry your umbrella. 

Saw Onions son last week. He hasn't changed a bit!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

Here's an icy clown map for you folks in NW GA. NOT A FORECAST, I mean, afterall, it's the GFS.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Dec 15, 2017)

Short pants and flip flops from for Christmas?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

And on a more serious note; Brad Nitz says Tuesday we should see wind gusts in the 30 mph range. Soooo, if you have any leaning trees, snags or widow makers from the snow storm you need to get your chainsaw out this weekend and do some mitigation.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 15, 2017)

I'll take the snow, but please cancel any impending ice storms.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'll take the snow, but please cancel any impending ice storms.



Well it's snowing and sleeting good right now over Georgia and Alabama, but it's doing it well up in the atmosphere and with a low dewpoint and higher temps than are sustainable none of it will hit the ground, not even as a misty rain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

One week ago here it was a very cold rain and the ground temp was 55°F. Here's what we got today with air temp at 39°F and cloudy.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 15, 2017)

This weather and cloudy day has sure put the deer on the move good since daylight. It can stay like this for a couple of days.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> This weather and cloudy day has sure put the deer on the move good since daylight. It can stay like this for a couple of days.



Maybe that biggun you're after will get to movin with the rain coming in on Monday.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 15, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maybe that biggun you're after will get to movin with the rain coming in on Monday.



That 9 point this morning sure was a temptation.   . Right now it's a lull and I'm wanting a cup of coffee something fierce.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 15, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> That 9 point this morning sure was a temptation.   . Right now it's a lull and I'm wanting a cup of coffee something fierce.



It's about to get windy. I read an article that said there have been more big bucks on average killed in high winds.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 15, 2017)

Yea, it's starting to pick up out of the NW and that's good  for the stand I'm in. Plus, the secondary rut is in full swing. Some snow would be nice.


----------



## ryork (Dec 15, 2017)

37 degrees, cloudy, breezy and cold here around 4:30 this afternoon. Still a few inches of snow (ice) on the roof.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

Latest EURO for Christmas morning. NOT what we want to see trending. Fortunately being 10 days out this is just a clown map. Hopefully.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2017)

Dang. GFS hinting at the same, just not as deep in the SE as the EURO.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 15, 2017)

Hmmmm.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2017)

Aaaaaaand this is why this forecast will be just as tricky as the last one. It will be a cold rain or it will be ugggggly. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tricky split flow setting up December 22-25… could be some winter mischief as the ULL south of AZ/NM lifts out… pic.twitter.com/Lf5I3WWckn</p>â€” James Spann (@spann) December 16, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## jbird1 (Dec 16, 2017)




----------



## Deer Fanatic (Dec 16, 2017)

Should I go buy a buy a generator??? Tifton area


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2017)

Deer Fanatic said:


> Should I go buy a buy a generator??? Tifton area



You should own a generator regardless of what the weather forecast is.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 17, 2017)

0z GFS getting to that 7-8 day range and just ante up and raised on Euro


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 17, 2017)

wooooo whooooo

a chance for a white Christmas


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One week ago here it was a very cold rain and the ground temp was 55°F. Here's what we got today with air temp at 39°F and cloudy.



You'd have to get a hammer to stick that thing in the ground here right now.......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 17, 2017)

Well. Were back up and running I see. Still smells the same though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 17, 2017)

All models have abandoned a Christmas event in this mornings run. Flip flops and muda shorts for Christmas Day. 

Of course, we're still 8 days out and they could easily flip the other way between now and then, but the trends and lack of blocking in the Atlantic don't suggest otherwise.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 17, 2017)

It's in the 20s and sleeting here now. Magical, it is.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 17, 2017)

It was shorts and t shirt again yesterday.


----------



## Milkman (Dec 17, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It was shorts and t shirt again yesterday.



What was the actual high temperature?


----------



## Deer Fanatic (Dec 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You should own a generator regardless of what the weather forecast is.



OK, I deserved that..... I agree-- just looking for a good excuse to go ahead a get one. Maybe  a better question would have been ---- Do I need to buy a snow plow???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 17, 2017)

Deer Fanatic said:


> OK, I deserved that..... I agree-- just looking for a good excuse to go ahead a get one. Maybe  a better question would have been ---- Do I need to buy a snow plow???



Not unless you plan on using it to push sand around.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 17, 2017)

Bring on the pipe freezing cold and may the snow cover our mailboxes!!!!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 17, 2017)

It's been over a week now since the snow fell and there's still 3 inches on my roof and 5 or 6 on the back deck.  North and northish facing slopes all still have lots of snow.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 17, 2017)

Milkman said:


> What was the actual high temperature?



It was mid 50's in the afternoon


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 17, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> It's been over a week now since the snow fell and there's still 3 inches on my roof and 5 or 6 on the back deck.  North and northish facing slopes all still have lots of snow.



Yep.. I still have 2+ inches in patches back here in the woods.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 17, 2017)

Sure would love a white Christmas....


----------



## Priest (Dec 17, 2017)

The 50° temp and pouring rain finally disposed of the remainder of snow in my yard today. It was on the ground over 9 days!  Well, I'll look in the morning to see if any of it is left in the woods out back.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

According to Alabama Wx. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mild Week; Wet/Stormy At Times @spann #ALWX https://t.co/AHswTNX7Ea pic.twitter.com/r9Ig15O3wn</p>— Alabama Weather Blog (@alabamawxblog) December 18, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

And from Kirk Melish

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Need to monitor potential for damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornado risk Wednesday with potent low pressure system #gawx #ATLweather #Atlanta #ATLTraffic pic.twitter.com/4kJpdNqg48</p>— Kirk Mellish (@MellishMeterWSB) December 18, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

Would upload a gif, but the ability to upload pic files has failed on my last three attempts. Hopefully that is part of the "maintenance" they are doing on this dinosaur of a forum software package.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

Read this link in the Met Shack.

DO NOT IGNORE IT!!!

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=911220


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

All of this information is provided with graphs and gifs on my Facebook page, if you are over there.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

While the site is up... models starting to think about some flakes around Christmas... actually last run put flurries in Albany.  Vein of moisture in behind the main push of rain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> While the site is up... models starting to think about some flakes around Christmas... actually last run put flurries in Albany.  Vein of moisture in behind the main push of rain.



Wouldn't that be the bomb. Dry as a bone and 55° here with snow in SOWEGA. 

I have GOT to sell that sled.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wouldn't that be the bomb. Dry as a bone and 55° here with snow in SOWEGA.
> 
> I have GOT to sell that sled.



Highest temp here on Christmas is 42°?  Gets colder as the day rolls along.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> Highest temp here on Christmas is 42°?  Gets colder as the day rolls along.



I think *******i at Wx Bell is creating his own models. I can't find what he is harping about anywhere. He is a worse snow monger than you are.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 18, 2017)

I'm adopting the CFS at this point.  It has a white Christmas in NW GA.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm adopting the CFS at this point.  It has a white Christmas in NW GA.



I think you mean the GFS and yes, it is kids waking up to a serious white Christmas.  7 days out ... that's getting into the time frame that we have to start giving it some mention.  Not credit but mention.  If it starts to get model support from other models...  Well then we will have something.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

Trying to post a picture of the model but the website won't let me.  Keeps telling me the image type is no good, but should be good.  Must be a maintenance thing.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> I think you mean the GFS and yes, it is kids waking up to a serious white Christmas.  7 days out ... that's getting into the time frame that we have to start giving it some mention.  Not credit but mention.  If it starts to get model support from other models...  Well then we will have something.



Nope.  CFS.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Nope.  CFS.



I hardly ever pay attention to the CFS.  Not a reliable model.  Not sure how you got that picture to post... mine will not let me post pictures of any kind.


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

https://twitter.com/gonweatherguy/status/942798129648340992

Here is the picture I have tried to load 12 different ways.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> https://twitter.com/gonweatherguy/status/942798129648340992
> 
> Here is the picture I have tried to load 12 different ways.



CFS may be worthless but right now it's about all I've got so I'll just keep holding onto it!

As for posting it, I have no clue why my right click, copy, paste for the URL works and yours doesn't.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> https://twitter.com/gonweatherguy/status/942798129648340992
> 
> Here is the picture I have tried to load 12 different ways.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm adopting the CFS at this point.  It has a white Christmas in NW GA.



The only chance right now, and it is an extremely slight one, is in extreme NW GA. I wouldn't hold my breath though, the ensemble runs are all over the place past the 22nd. The only thing that positive that one can glean from the ensembles is that it will be getting colder the week after Christmas, beyond that we could pitch quarters against a wall in an alley and get a better consensus.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

Here is a more realistic image of what is possible for NW GA.
That being said, this is a "copy image address" link, which I don't like to use because it is an html file linked to the hour run and will change with each update on the model site. Attaching pictures gives a more accurate image that will not change.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 18, 2017)

Bunch of Debbie downers...............


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2017)

I cannot get pictures to load now.  I see that some of you are, but I cannot.  It keeps telling me the file TYPE is no good.  I have saved them as jpgs and pngs and resized them... just keeps saying no good.  

Frustrating.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2017)

DDD said:


> I cannot get pictures to load now.  I see that some of you are, but I cannot.  It keeps telling me the file TYPE is no good.  I have saved them as jpgs and pngs and resized them... just keeps saying no good.
> 
> Frustrating.



You can link them by copying the image address then coming here and clicking on the little "picture" icon and inserting that link. 

You cannot however attach pictures like we could before the maintenance. It is a patch, but not all sights play well with the "copy image address" feature.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 18, 2017)

Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week.  What's he on about?


----------



## malak05 (Dec 18, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week.  What's he on about?



Canadian and GFS recent runs show a strong HP from North and West coming down and basically drops the Cold hammer on South and opens the Fridge would definitely be coldest air seen in several winters probably but due to the HP being so powerful any Low Pressure precipitation from Gulf is squashed to Cuba so no wintry precip for us anywhere around Christmas.

GFS particular is probably over-done a good bit on just how strong that HP so gonna take a few days to see any kind of constitancy to them showing that HP

From Tuesday into Friday next week Lows in N. Georgia at about 7-10 degrees and down into South Ga and Panhandle being in the low 20s and several days where half of GA doesn't get above freezing for the day


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 18, 2017)

You can keep that junk!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week.  What's he on about?



Possible, but he could have been reading the celsius scale without converting it also.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 19, 2017)

Glenn drinking in the Christmas cheer?


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Euro showing rain last run but time will tell. It has lots of time to change. About six days in fact. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121900/georgia/ecmwf_ptype_georgia_144.png


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Glenn drinking in the Christmas cheer?



So far the only trend is that it will be colder, there is still ensemble disagreement as to how much with a bit more than a 10°F discrepancy in temperatures for next week. The good news is, that is a fairly small discrepancy in disagreement. The GFS Ensemble alone has a better than 30°F discrepancy difference in temperatures for 12/25. Six days out that is kind of crazy, but totally expected out of the GFS.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Yeah the last run of the NAM sees it being created and all of them have it backing up and holding a bit then get out.Really bizarre that they are pretty much agreeing with this far out. Temps are gonna be cold for sure but with there be enough moisture and temps aloft to allow for wintry precipitation is key. It usually runs into the drier and warmer air down here in southern Georgia.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Yeah the last run of the NAM sees it being created and all of them have it backing up and holding a bit then get out.Really bizarre that they are pretty much agreeing with this far out. Temps are gonna be cold for sure but with there be enough moisture and temps aloft to allow for wintry precipitation is key. It usually runs into the drier and warmer air down here in southern Georgia.



I don't see any moisture being available with that tropospheric shot of cold next week. The GFS still holds out for a chance, but the GFS is smoking a speshul kind of weather crack most of the time.


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 19, 2017)

No frozen percip please.  Gotta get family in and out expeditiously.  I have 3.5 day limit on all family exposure.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called 
Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 19, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called
> Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.



I thought we just spent the last 15 or so days with below average temps?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called
> Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.


What are you basing all of this on? From the long term observations I am seeing, after this next cold shot we actually moderate to a warmer trend in January with our next heavy cold shot not returning until around the 3rd week in January.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

I read earlier that it was a warm December. That 74 degree temps near breaking highs days down here pretty much helped with that.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Sometimes you have to base it on not just models but with gut and instincts and not just based on models.The satellite imagery that I have seen has the jet stream currently pushing these fronts that are hitting the west coast of Canada and pushing them down south. There is a huge ridge in Canada just waiting to bring further colder air so I believe we will have a colder January than we did this month.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Sometimes you have to base it on not just models but with gut and instincts and not just based on models.


Said no meteorologist ever.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Actually, James Spann has one of the best instincts about the weather which is why he has just a Certificate and not a degree.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

That is why models are called guidance models instead of forecasting models cause you use them as a guide and not base it on 100 percent certainty. Gotta use your experience, gut, and instinct as well.


----------



## ryork (Dec 19, 2017)

> I thought we just spent the last 15 or so days with below average temps?



Yep, we got to the low 60's a day or two right before the snowstorm best I can recall, but other than that it's been pretty doggone cold during December! I've still got snow on the ground in places around the house, twelve days since the storm.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

By the way, I never said I was a meteorologist.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Down here near Albany it has been warm. North Georgia has been much colder. Felt like spring down here yesterday here. It was 71 degrees per NWS Tallahassee IEMBOT.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 19, 2017)

Sunday afternoon I was in the Kinchafoonee swamp trying to deer hunt and the skeeters liken to have ate me alive.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Actually, James Spann has one of the best instincts about the weather which is why he has just a Certificate and not a degree.


Your gut may be wrong on this one.



> James was one of the first weather anchors in the nation to earn "Certified Broadcast Meteorologist" status from the American Meteorological Society. Among television meteorologists, the CBM designation is sought as a mark of distinction and recognition. To earn the CBM, broadcasters must hold a degree in meteorology or equivalent from an accredited college or university, pass a rigorous written examination, and have their on-air work reviewed to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. He also has been awarded the seal of approval from the National Weather Association and holds a certificate in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University.



http://abc3340.com/archive/james-spann



krisjack said:


> That is why models are called guidance models instead of forecasting models cause you use them as a guide and not base it on 100 percent certainty. Gotta use your experience, gut, and instinct as well.



And wrong on this one. Models ARE forecast, thus what their acronym's break down to, GFS = Global Forecast System, ECMWF = European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting. 

Each hour run that is done, each day goes into an ensemble to do comparisons of what the trend may be, this is where guidance is derived, from the ensembles of weather forecast models, then from that a scientific opinion is derived. 

Meteorology is a very complex science that a large percentage is way over my head, but I strive to learn more and more about it every day. The internet is full of forecast by their gut wannabe's, and DDD and I have spent more than our fair share of time busting them over it. You want to earn the respect of the professional meteorologists? You'd better have some concept of data interpretation to interact with them. You go at them with your gut instincts and you'd best be prepared to take a dung storm of grief from them, along with a fair amount of ridicule. They have a hard enough job dealing with grief from the general public that doesn't have a clue what they are dealing with in forecasting complex systems. They have zero tolerance for fools with an opinion. I've personally seen one of their tirades against one, and it isn't pretty.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

Back to tomorrow's weather. Y'all still need to keep your eyes and ears peeled.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 19, 2017)

Nice balmy 27* here this morning. Better than the teens we've been having, anyway.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Nice balmy 27* here this morning. Better than the teens we've been having, anyway.



You in your flippity flops and muda shorts today then huh?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You in your flippity flops and muda shorts today then huh?



Funny thing is it's supposed to be 65 this afternoon?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Funny thing is it's supposed to be 65 this afternoon?



Yep, crazy weather, but that's how it is in the SE. Don't like the weather? Wait a half day or so.


----------



## Crakajak (Dec 19, 2017)

Wheres the Oracle of Dublin when you need him....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Wheres the Oracle of Dublin when you need him....



In jail???


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Back to tomorrow's weather. Y'all still need to keep your eyes and ears peeled.



Bring it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Bring it!



You got your lounge chair bolted down on the roof and a cooler stocked and ready?


----------



## 3ringer (Dec 19, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Wheres the Oracle of Dublin when you need him....


He has been replaced


----------



## Crakajak (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You got your lounge chair bolted down on the roof and a cooler stocked and ready?



Does Blood need to put on a long sleeve shirt and socks to roof sit next week?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Does Blood need to put on a long sleeve shirt and socks to roof sit next week?



He doesn't change his outfit by the season. His standard uniform for roof sittin weather watchin is flippity flops with knee high black socks, boxer shorts and a wife beater t-shirt. Sometimes he'll put on his Jeff Gordon hat if it's gonna be colder than normal, but other than that it's a pretty standard gig.


----------



## snarlinbear (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Your gut may be wrong on this one.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Miggy: you truly have the patience of Job!  The problem of weather forecasting with your gut is that you have to wear really tight weather proof pants.  As was demonstrated.


----------



## Milkman (Dec 19, 2017)

Too bad we can’t get an opinion from Guy Sharpe on it


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

Milkman said:


> Too bad we can’t get an opinion from Guy Sharpe on it



Well, I knew him personally as well as anyone on here. I could attempt to channel him.


----------



## ryork (Dec 19, 2017)

> Too bad we can’t get an opinion from Guy Sharpe on it



I miss Guy Sharpe! I can remember when I was in the 10-12 yr old range give or take some and being at grandparent's house when the news came on.  My grandfather would always tell everybody to hush because "Guy is about to say the weather".  I think Guy owned stock in bread/milk producers and grocery stores.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Dec 19, 2017)

My Mama went to a dance with Guy Sharpe. She said he was really short.


----------



## Milkman (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, I knew him personally as well as anyone on here. I could attempt to channel him.



Your secret is out now


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

I would post a slew of maps from the GFS ensemble group and a couple of the Euro, but I can't. 

They are still showing no agreement on the  where and when of the cold air for the 25th. 

Got em up over on facebook though.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He doesn't change his outfit by the season. His standard uniform for roof sittin weather watchin is flippity flops with knee high black socks, boxer shorts and a wife beater t-shirt. Sometimes he'll put on his Jeff Gordon hat if it's gonna be colder than normal, but other than that it's a pretty standard gig.



 ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> ...



What you laughing at. I've seen you do it.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 19, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What you laughing at. I've seen you do it.



It wasn't to be announced


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> It wasn't to be announced



Well, Mrs. Blood said she didn't mind you wearin the wife beater t-shirt, since you don't really beat her. She said it's kinda sexy with that flying pig tattoo on your left shoulder peaking out from it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

Euro graph showing how temps are still all over the place for the 25th. No way to formulate a forecast from this information. Anyone, pro or amateur, that is saying it's gonna snow is wishcasting, not forecasting.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Yep the models are all over the place with temps and precipitation. This storm tomorrow though has good vorticity on NAM and NWS has a possibility of a slight risk change at some point tomorrow. Gotta take that one seriously as well. Georgia weather lol. One week snow the next week or two severe weather.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 19, 2017)

Looks like the cold is coming AFTER the rain to me. That's my forecast. Take it for what it's worth. Which ain't much


----------



## NE GA Pappy (Dec 19, 2017)

Milkman said:


> Too bad we can’t get an opinion from Guy Sharpe on it



Or Johnny Beckman lol


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

I don't begin to have confidence in a weather concept till it is about 48 hours. That's when it is most accurate. Lots of people were wrong last time cause they thought the NAM was crazy but it turned out it faired better than the Euro with snowfall totals. We won't have a clear picture of this storm till about 48 hour. That last Euro run 240 is interesting as well but still a long way off. These models will change multiple times. It sucks cause everyone wants to know is it gonna snow lol.


----------



## NE GA Pappy (Dec 19, 2017)

10:1 odds that it will not snow at my house on Christmas Day


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Dec 19, 2017)

what is the facebook page we can look at???


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Yeah I only know the Twitter The GON Guy one.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 19, 2017)

Yeah I wasn't wrong. Just was playing dumb that's how you can learn some things Miguel. I hope it don't get cold or snow. Every time it gets cold you see some form of house fire or car accidents. I hate seeing that.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

NE GA Pappy said:


> Or Johnny Beckman lol


In person, Guy never had much good to say about him. 



krisjack said:


> Yeah I wasn't wrong. Just was playing dumb that's how you can learn some things Miguel. I hope it don't get cold or snow. Every time it gets cold you see some form of house fire or car accidents. I hate seeing that.


It is heart breaking to hear the stories bout house fires in winter conditions. It is so unavoidable.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2017)

YankeeRedneck said:


> what is the facebook page we can look at???


PM sent


----------



## krisjack (Dec 20, 2017)

I am waiting for the Euro to start. It is gonna to be the maker of when they change that Outlook or not.Mix Layer Cape and the SigTor has me a bit concerned from the NAM. If it changes then the team I am involved in may have to send out some severe text alerts. I am hoping that it is a bust though.We need the rain down here but not that bad stuff. We had enough of that last January 2nd and 22nd.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Dec 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> In person, Guy never had much good to say about him.
> 
> 
> Beckman is pretty active on Facebook these days.  Quite interesting.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

NOAA SPC has expanded the Thunderstorm percentage and area to 10% and down through SOWEGA. Several of the maps are indicating a weakening of the system as the day goes on down that way, but I'm not seeing it. It has a direct feed out of the gulf and moisture is abundant. Differential wind directions between 850mb and surface are sufficient for horizontal rotation, though the wind speeds at both levels aren't that impressive. However the cells in this system are clipping along at 50 to 90 mph, so they are generating their own weather and dumping tons of rain in N. Miss and AL right now. 

Add to this mix what the temps will be ahead of the front around 3pm in SOWEGA vs the 20 degree drop behind it and potential is there. I've been wrong before, and sure hope I am again. 

Another area I am watching right now is a cold water area dead east of Corpus Christi Tx. It is causing the NW flow to sink and split around it just before hitting the flow to the NE. My curiosity to see if this sinking and splitting while hitting an opposing wind current will cause a secondary low that isn't factored in to today's forecast to form. If that happens it could make for a very lively afternoon.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 20, 2017)

Thanks, Hugh. Noted.

Depending on the time I might delay my afternoon hunt today.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Thanks, Hugh. Noted.
> 
> Depending on the time I might delay my afternoon hunt today.


I hope they're moving good for you this morning, out ahead of this system.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> NOAA SPC has expanded the Thunderstorm percentage and area to 10% and down through SOWEGA. Several of the maps are indicating a weakening of the system as the day goes on down that way, but I'm not seeing it. It has a direct feed out of the gulf and moisture is abundant. Differential wind directions between 850mb and surface are sufficient for horizontal rotation, though the wind speeds at both levels aren't that impressive. However the cells in this system are clipping along at 50 to 90 mph, so they are generating their own weather and dumping tons of rain in N. Miss and AL right now.
> 
> Add to this mix what the temps will be ahead of the front around 3pm in SOWEGA vs the 20 degree drop behind it and potential is there. I've been wrong before, and sure hope I am again.
> 
> Another area I am watching right now is a cold water area dead east of Corpus Christi Tx. It is causing the NW flow to sink and split around it just before hitting the flow to the NE. My curiosity to see if this sinking and splitting while hitting an opposing wind current will cause a secondary low that isn't factored in to today's forecast to form. If that happens it could make for a very lively afternoon.



Always appreciate your warnings sir..


----------



## ssramage (Dec 20, 2017)

When's the sloppy stuff supposed to get to SOWEGA? I have to drive from Tifton to St. Simons this afternoon and want to get out ahead of the rain if possible...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

ssramage said:


> When's the sloppy stuff supposed to get to SOWEGA? I have to drive from Tifton to St. Simons this afternoon and want to get out ahead of the rain if possible...



It may never get there, but the potential is there.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 20, 2017)

Feels like a powder keg outside around here. Like when the tornado hit us in 2002.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

Had a good breeze accompany that main band of rain coming through. .75" for the day so far, .65" of that was in the 10 minutes the band came through. 

Should clear off for a decent day up here in the north.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

Tornado warning in Randolh County Alabama just across the state line in west central Georgia. You folks pay attention down that way.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tornado warning in Randolh County Alabama just across the state line in west central Georgia. You folks pay attention down that way.



Front side of that band is moving in Heard right now. It is dumping some serious rain.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 20, 2017)

Snow coming Dec 28?


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 20, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Snow coming Dec 28?



You musta skeered them all off with that!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 20, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Snow coming Dec 28?





smokey30725 said:


> You musta skeered them all off with that!



Not skeered, just posting maps where we can. 

As for the 28th and beyond, we ain't sayin rat now.


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 20, 2017)

It's raining good in south rockdale right now


----------



## mguthrie (Dec 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not skeered, just posting maps where we can.
> 
> As for the 28th and beyond, we ain't sayin rat now.



I don't do any other social media away from the forum. I need maps


----------



## krisjack (Dec 21, 2017)

Here is a Shreveport LA news article about the system that happened Tuesday night. It was really crazy as we were watching that thing go about 60 miles and I saw a debris field using CC  and that wind ahead of it and velocity on radarscope and GR2Analyst. I could get a pretty good rotation on it. The winds here I could hear it whistling sitting by the window. I saw that graph where it called for winds at about 40 mph so I knew it was going to have plenty of wind with it. These winter systems are mighty complex and hard to predict but SPC did an awesome job with their outlooks this round. I give them props. It was a crazy day and night watching that mess.https://www.ktbs.com/weather/stormy-tuesday-night-across-the-arklatex/article_1cd89a50-e54c-11e7-8791-9befaa66f5c1.html


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 21, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Here is a Shreveport LA news article about the system that happened Tuesday night. It was really crazy as we were watching that thing go about 60 miles and I saw a debris field using CC  and that wind ahead of it and velocity on radarscope and GR2Analyst. I could get a pretty good rotation on it. The winds here I could hear it whistling sitting by the window. I saw that graph where it called for winds at about 40 mph so I knew it was going to have plenty of wind with it. These winter systems are mighty complex and hard to predict but SPC did an awesome job with their outlooks this round. I give them props. It was a crazy day and night watching that mess.https://www.ktbs.com/weather/stormy-tuesday-night-across-the-arklatex/article_1cd89a50-e54c-11e7-8791-9befaa66f5c1.html



they gone give you access to the meat shack


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> they gone give you access to the meat shack



Nope. 

He is a spotter though, just need to sand down the rough edges.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

First week of January should be interesting. If nothing else, it will be cold, but then, this is officially winter (starting at 11:38 this morning) so what do you expect? 

I would post a map, but at this point it would be all clowns, and I can't post maps here anyway.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 21, 2017)

Just to see if map will post.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 21, 2017)

If any weather the first week of January keeps me from getting to and from the Rose Bowl, Miggy and his elephant loving Tide self will pay the price.


----------



## biggtruxx (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What you laughing at. I've seen you do it.



can you pm me the info for the fb page so I may follow please?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Just to see if map will post.



Hyplink images will post on here, but that is not the most desirable way to insert an image that you wish to preserve for comparative data to the next run. 

Take a screen shot of this image, then come back in 6 or 8 hours and see what it looks like. It will have updated to the new image because it is a direct link to the actual site / map and doesn't remain static like an attached image does.


----------



## Crakajak (Dec 21, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> If any weather the first week of January keeps me from getting to and from the Rose Bowl, Miggy and his elephant loving Tide self will pay the price.



If you give me the money you gonna spend on that trip I will buy the biggerest screen I can and you can come watch.I'll try to bribe some other members to watch the weather,cook,watch for sooners etc.....provided Miggy or DDD don't make it Ice up on us.


----------



## snarlinbear (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope.
> 
> He is a spotter though, just need to sand down the rough edges.



Miguel, you are a great man and I'm certain you are at the top of Santa's "nice" list!  Bless you for all you do.


----------



## keithsto (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hyplink images will post on here, but that is not the most desirable way to insert an image that you wish to preserve for comparative data to the next run.
> 
> Take a screen shot of this image, then come back in 6 or 8 hours and see what it looks like. It will have updated to the new image because it is a direct link to the actual site / map and doesn't remain static like an attached image does.



Just use an image sharing site like imgur.com.  Upload the image there, copy the URL to the image file, and use that URL here.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hyplink images will post on here, but that is not the most desirable way to insert an image that you wish to preserve for comparative data to the next run.
> 
> Take a screen shot of this image, then come back in 6 or 8 hours and see what it looks like. It will have updated to the new image because it is a direct link to the actual site / map and doesn't remain static like an attached image does.



The 12z run is up at pivotal weather but that image I posted from the 6z run (right clicked in map and copied link into the  picture link in the posting window here on GON) has not changed.  It's still the same as it was this morning. 

Not sure if that helps you but I'm not seeing them automatically change with each model run on my PC.  

I just pulled up this thread on my phone as well and when it downloaded this thread the 6z run picture was what it pulled up.

Not sure if that helps but any way to get you map privileges back is good with me.


----------



## rospaw (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope.
> 
> He is a spotter though, just need to sand down the rough edges.



 with a stump grinder!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Miguel, you are a great man and I'm certain you are at the top of Santa's "nice" list!  Bless you for all you do.


Don't be cussin me like that. I've got a long standing reputation in the back room here to uphold. 


keithsto said:


> Just use an image sharing site like imgur.com.  Upload the image there, copy the URL to the image file, and use that URL here.


I don't use image sharing sites. They all eventually crash, reset or want to charge you before it's over. 

My image sharing site lives on my hard drive.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

rospaw said:


> with a stump grinder!



Be nice now. Going to the trouble to get Spotter Network certified isn't something to be taken lightly. Just need to polish his delivery a bit and he'll be fine. 

I don't bust on any of my red dot brothers that show up on RadarScope. They've earned their place on that radar and do a valuable service to the NWS and public in general.


----------



## rospaw (Dec 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Be nice now. Going to the trouble to get Spotter Network certified isn't something to be taken lightly. Just need to polish his delivery a bit and he'll be fine.
> 
> I don't bust on any of my red dot brothers that show up on RadarScope. They've earned their place on that radar and do a valuable service to the NWS and public in general.



Did i just get my hand slapped reaching in the cookie jar? 

Oh, you better start using the "brothers and SISTERS" term. Don't make me call the "sister lives matter" crew in to PUT YOU IN YOUR PLACE!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

rospaw said:


> Did i just get my hand slapped reaching in the cookie jar?
> 
> Oh, you better start using the "brothers and SISTERS" term. Don't make me call the "sister lives matter" crew in to PUT YOU IN YOUR PLACE!



I ain't skeered.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2017)

Pile of rain heading towards folks from Arkansas up through Kentucky. Y'all be mindful of standing water on the roadways if you're heading that way for the Holiday.


----------



## Hornet22 (Dec 21, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Miguel, you are a great man and I'm certain you are at the top of Santa's "nice" list!  Bless you for all you do.



 Yep, he spatial alright


----------



## krisjack (Dec 21, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> they gone give you access to the meat shack



Naw I am already on a great team. Would not leave them. We have people that worked as NWS Ham radio operator during the Camilla outbreak who was the first to hear about it, spotters, storm chasers and a Wave 94 on-air meteorologist among other people. We cover all of NWS Mobile, NWS Tallahassee and some Birmingham and FFC counties with hands-on text alerts meaning we do it ourselves and not automated to be quicker. She is in the NWS chat too so it is great to be on it. I am much more than just a spotter as I know a lot about weather and climate. I hear *******i saying that the Indian Ocean is getting cooler now.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 21, 2017)

I have been on here for awhile and I used to see DDD and Miguel covering the weather a lot. It is great that they are still doing it. I know I love doing what I do and I am sure they do as well.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 21, 2017)

Prognostic discussion for monthly outlook 
nws climate prediction center college park md
830 am est thu dec 21 2017 


30-day outlook discussion for january 2018 

the january 2018 temperature and precipitation outlooks are based on model 
guidance, typical influences of la nina, long-term trends, mid-latitude 
variability, and the potential for shorter-term tropical variability (mjo), to 
influence the pattern. La nina conditions continued during november 2017 and 
are predicted to continue through the outlook period. Long-term trends centered 
on january (djf) support above normal temperatures for portions of the southern 
plains, southwest, california, and the great basin. Weakly negative trends for 
the last 15 years are evident over the northern plains, great lakes and ohio 
valley. The current state of la nina and seasonal trends provide a backdrop for 
the monthly outlook. 

The mjo was relatively inactive in november before becoming more active during 
december over the western pacific. Mjo forecasts indicate a signal moving 
across the americas and emerging over the indian ocean by early january 2018. 
Lagged composites based on an mjo over the indian ocean would favor ridging and 
warmth over the eastern conus with troughing and colder temperatures over the 
western conus, at odds with trends and most model outlooks for january, so the 
mjo is a potential source of uncertainty during the outlook period. 

The arctic oscillation (ao) is forecast to be negative at the beginning of 
january. That would imply a colder solution from the northern plains to the 
great lakes and southeast. The status of the ao beyond 15 days is uncertain, so 
the ao will likely be more of a factor in the end-of-month update to this 
outlook. 

The temperature outlook for january reflects trends, model outlooks, and likely 
impacts from the ongoing la nina from california to the central rockies, 
southwest, and southern plains, where above normal temperatures are favored. La 
nina and a predicted cold start to the month favor below normal temperatures 
from the northern great plains to the great lakes and portions of the ohio 
valley and midwest. Uncertainty is higher over the eastern conus due to 
potential mjo activity bringing warmer conditions later in the month. Across 
eastern alaska and the panhandle, la nina, model outlooks, and seasonally based 
statistical tools favor below normal temperatures. The same tools favor above 
normal temperatures over western alaska, although that signal has retreated 
westward throughout the month in daily cfs runs. 

La nina and trends generally favor a more active pattern across the northern 
tier of the conus with below normal precipitation across the southern tier. 
Model outputs generally agree with that pattern, and therefore the official 
outlook reflects those inputs. Uncertainty is increased over the eastern conus 
due to potential mjo activity, so coverage in the outlook is reduced east of 
the mississippi river. Across western alaska, the predicted ridging, which 
would support above normal temperatures, is also likely to support below normal 
precipitation. 

Forecaster: Matthew rosencrans 

the climatic normals are based on conditions between 1981 and 2010, following 
the world meteorological organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 

An updated monthly outlook... For jan will be issued on sun december 31 2017 

these outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period. 
$$


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Naw I am already on a great team. Would not leave them. We have people that worked as NWS Ham radio operator during the Camilla outbreak who was the first to hear about it, spotters, storm chasers and a Wave 94 on-air meteorologist among other people. We cover all of NWS Mobile, NWS Tallahassee and some Birmingham and FFC counties with hands-on text alerts meaning we do it ourselves and not automated to be quicker. She is in the NWS chat too so it is great to be on it. I am much more than just a spotter as I know a lot about weather and climate. I hear *******i saying that the Indian Ocean is getting cooler now.


I would be careful following *******i too close. He is a snow freak and tends to err on the side of whatever looks like it will bring snow to the US, even if it is the smallest outlyer.


krisjack said:


> Prognostic discussion for monthly outlook
> nws climate prediction center college park md
> 830 am est thu dec 21 2017
> 
> ...



I covered this new infatuation with the EPO and MJO over on the other group yesterday evening pointing out that the one ingredient absolutely necessary for winter storm potential in the SE that other climate scholars have seemed to abandon is the NAO. 

I even posted a graph of the NAO forecast showing where it actually went negative as required during our most recent snow event. It's prognosis for our future events this winter is not good as it is trending positive. 

(I have actually figure out how to get pics here. I post them in the group over there first, then hyperlink them here)


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## jbird1 (Dec 22, 2017)

Krisjack dropping weather knowledge...maybe I hould join forces with a group


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 22, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Krisjack dropping weather knowledge...maybe I hould join forces with a group



There's a storm a comin' in Pasadena 1/1/18 according to my group.


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## jbird1 (Dec 22, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> There's a storm a comin' in Pasadena 1/1/18 according to my group.



GO DAWGS!


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## jf950y (Dec 22, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> GO DAWGS!


 Go Dawgs!!


----------



## jf950y (Dec 22, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Krisjack dropping weather knowledge...maybe I hould join forces with a group


 They might take yall's bullet away if you get out of line. Lol


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

I read somewhere the picture upload was working. Lets see.
Yep, clown maps are working.


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## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

Yeah I hope the Dawgs beat the crap out of the Sooners. Yeah I am weary of listening to *******i haha. I rather listen Ryan Maude and Larry Cosgrove than that guy. *******i seems to overhype things. The Ensembles are currently looking like a cold start to the new year but time will tell. I am looking at that Canadian cold air building and those pacific systems just piling up. If that cold and precipitation line up at the right time it could cause trouble. GFS keeps acting crazy lol. Here is a link to Larry's stuff that he does. It's pretty good stuff and I think people will love to see all those graphics haha. https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!forum/weatheramerica


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## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

This is what my the weather tv Met posted on their Twitter page.


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## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

I am seeing a colder trend setting up if this verifies Weather is always changing keeping us on our toes haha.


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## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

I am really proud of what we accomplished. I am part of group that is pictured on the bottom.


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## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

What other group and if you can I would like to know that Facebook page as well. If you don't mind. 


QUOTE=Miguel Cervantes;11029171]I would be careful following *******i too close. He is a snow freak and tends to err on the side of whatever looks like it will bring snow to the US, even if it is the smallest outlyer.


I covered this new infatuation with the EPO and MJO over on the other group yesterday evening pointing out that the one ingredient absolutely necessary for winter storm potential in the SE that other climate scholars have seemed to abandon is the NAO. 

I even posted a graph of the NAO forecast showing where it actually went negative as required during our most recent snow event. It's prognosis for our future events this winter is not good as it is trending positive. 

(I have actually figure out how to get pics here. I post them in the group over there first, then hyperlink them here)






[/QUOTE]


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

The tricky part about CAD systems is the models don't handle them well. As we have seen in past history models will trend on the marginal edge for frozen precip but at the surface the temps will be freezing. Classic ice storm setup if you are in the CAD areas. 

We are still too many days out to nail this down but the EURO and GFS both have been bouncing in and out of this scenario for days. 

By Sunday we should have better agreement. By Wednesday it will be on or it won't. Stay tuned you wascawy wabbits.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

Great video of the SpaceX launch on the Pacific Coast. Apparently a lot of folks were freaking out flooding the 911 system when they saw it. 

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It’s way too short, but here’s a brief time-lapse of it looking over downtown Phoenix! Wish I had been more prepared and time-lapsed it from the very beginning! #spacexlaunch #Falcon9 @elonmusk #SonyA7RIII pic.twitter.com/xYiNkgSKgm</p>â€” Mike Olbinski (@MikeOlbinski) December 23, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Bnathanb1982 (Dec 22, 2017)

*Cad*



Miguel Cervantes said:


> The tricky part about CAD systems is the models don't handle them well. As we have seen in past history models will trend on the marginal edge for frozen precip but at the surface the temps will be freezing. Classic ice storm setup if you are in the CAD areas.
> 
> We are still too many days out to nail this down but the EURO and GFS both have been bouncing in and out of this scenario for days.
> 
> By Sunday we should have better agreement. By Wednesday it will be on or it won't. Stay tuned you wascawy wabbits.



Are most CAD events in the form of freezing rain/sleet?  I'm trying to get a better understanding of these type of events.  From what I understand or trying to understand---with the CAD is this usually shallow low level cold air that always has warm air above it not allowing it to snow most of the time?  I understand the different levels of warmth and how that equates to what kind of precipitation we get, but does the COLD AIR DAMMING cool or have the ability to cool all layers of the atmosphere or is it just what is above ground?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

Bnathanb1982 said:


> Are most CAD events in the form of freezing rain/sleet?  I'm trying to get a better understanding of these type of events.  From what I understand or trying to understand---with the CAD is this usually shallow low level cold air that always has warm air above it not allowing it to snow most of the time?  I understand the different levels of warmth and how that equates to what kind of precipitation we get, but does the COLD AIR DAMMING cool or have the ability to cool all layers of the atmosphere or is it just what is above ground?


IF there is moisture available for precip then the resulting effect is usually an icing event. Once this occurs then convective cooling can influence temps above the 2m temp mark. It is all dependent on how deep and how cold the CAD is.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

Another view of the launch. 

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Look at this incredible video of the SpaceX launch over Southern California tonight, courtesy @aflores pic.twitter.com/TgIcHkpROU</p>— BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews) December 23, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2017)

Latest run of the GFS and CMC have lost their ever loving minds (hopefully). I'd make sure I had plenty of firewood and fuel for the generator just in case though. 

Right now they are clown maps. In a couple more days if they are still showing this garbage I am not going to be a happy camper.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 22, 2017)

Yeah, I saw that crazy launch lol. It looks pretty cool. GFS is really acting stupid for NYE again. I have predicted a few weeks ago that there was a potential for an ice storm in the deep south. I rather have snow though than that ice. Hopefully, the Euro and GFS get to agree soon with the NYE event. GFS been wanting us to get some snow down here in SW Georgia for a while now haha.Never verifies though which is a shame really.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

I hope this helps some people out and how the different precipitation form.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel that new convective outlook came out and it's not looking good for Northwest Georgia and Northern Alabama. That system has gotten better organized.


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## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

...Parts of northern Alabama, middle/eastern Tennessee and northwest
   Georgia...
   With modest to weak lapse rates expected along and ahead of the
   advancing cold front, the thermodynamic environment in the warm
   sector will be marginally unstable at best with SBCAPE up to around
   250 J/kg, primary west of the Appalachians crest.  Despite the
   meager instability, very strong low-level convergence along the
   front will favor maintenance of a low-topped, narrow QLCS moving
   rapidly eastward during the morning.  This scenario is supported by
   convection guidance from multiple CAM forecasts, several of which
   indicate a few embedded LEWPs/bow echo structures within the
   convective line.  Although there may be rather limited lightning
   with this QLCS, there will be potential for convective-scale
   downdrafts to transport very strong environmental winds within the
   lowest 1-2 km AGL down to the surface, especially with any bow
   echoes that develop.  The threat for isolated damaging wind gusts is
   expected mainly during the morning, with convective potential likely
   to diminish from the west during the afternoon.

That can be a nuisance.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

krisjack said:


> ...Parts of northern Alabama, middle/eastern Tennessee and northwest
> Georgia...
> With modest to weak lapse rates expected along and ahead of the
> advancing cold front, the thermodynamic environment in the warm
> ...



If you're gonna tell these fine folks what the potential severity of the weather is you're gonna have to speak their language. They can read that garbledygook on the NWS site on their own. They come here to get it in plain english. 

As this cold front moves through from NW to SE the potential for low level shear and rotation resulting in a bounce-n-go (twisty thing) are good, particularly in the NE & NW quadrants of AL & GA, to extend over to NE Ga and down to Commerce (basically the I-20 / I-85N corridor)

That area being of the highest potential, don't let your guard down as this front moves through the state. Gusty winds and daytime heating ahead of the front will still keep a marginal threat for a bounce-n-go to occur. 

Y'all keep your ears and eyes peeled and wx radios on.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Oh OK lol. I haven't been here in awhile so my apologies on that. I just wanted to be helpful is all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

I would like to expand on the dangers of Low Level or Vertical Shear storms. I'll post a radar shot of what's coming out of Mississippi right now to demonstrate. 

In typical spring time super cell development cells commonly hit 30 to 50K ft tops, generating a ton of lift and vertical rotation as the cycle through. As this progresses eventually one will generate enough vertical rotation to drop a funnel and often that funnel will reach the ground and become a tornado. 

In winter low level events the atmosphere isn't as such to support high level tops such as with super cells. Thus we have strong 500 & 700mb tops being blown off at up to 90 mph while winds at the surface are minimal. This vertical shear can cause a horizontal rotation typically resulting in more of a straight line wind as the front blows through, but given the right isolated conditions occasionally some of this horizontal rotation manages to go vertical causing a tornado. Contrary to spring conditions where tornado's can be in the higher ratings of the EF scale and track for twenty or more miles on the ground, these winter tornado's typically drop fast and are gone equally as fast as there is not sufficient dynamic lift in place to support long tracking cells. 

This is why I call them bounce-n-go's, even though they have been able to stay on the ground for a few miles under favorable conditions in the lower end of the EF scale, but still very dangerous. 

In this screen shot in base velocity mode of a cell moving through NE MS right now you can see the data return gives us an 11,700 topped cell with winds at height approaching 90mph, however winds at the surface on this cell are near nothing to up to 10mph. This is an extreme condition for low level shear and conditions are ripe for a bounce-n-go. 

These storms are near impossible for spotters to set up and observe, and to make it worse the Spotter Network is currently down across the Nation. The only product I have that spotter information is showing up on is my PYKL3 Radar. RadarScope and Gibson Ridge products are completely void of any spotter information. This is where spotters have to use direct reporting to NWS via phone or Ham radio. Ground truth doesn't get reported by near as many as normally would due to this setback.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Here are two diagrams that demonstrate the difference between low level shear (winter season) cells and high altitude meso cyclone super cells (spring season) storms.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Basically, if you live under the dark red to barney purple areas be aware of your surroundings today as this front moves through.

Crap, won't let me load the .gif.......


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## nickel back (Dec 23, 2017)

With all this talk can some say when it's going to get cold and all so when is the rain coming......if it is posted I missed it , thanks
NB


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 23, 2017)

It is 65* here and light rain. You can hear the wind absolutely howling overhead, but it's fairly still on the ground here at just under 3,000' elevation. Kind of weird.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 23, 2017)

Just had a good thunderstorm and heavy rain move through far NW Georgia. Couldn't see across the road for a few minutes it was pouring so hard.


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## malak05 (Dec 23, 2017)

nickel back said:


> With all this talk can some say when it's going to get cold and all so when is the rain coming......if it is posted I missed it , thanks
> NB



2 potential systems to talk about for upcoming 8-9 days.

Thursday/Friday all models have soon this low pressure and cold press down into south in varying degrees the Track of Low and HP position say CAD event with all the way running from NE Ga all way down to I-20 west of Atlanta, models have a hard time depicting strength of CAD and I was thought CMC is one of the better one to depict CAD and it's a major ice storm potential.

New Years eve and New Years day several models have had strong signal of a classic Miller A type storm with good cold air in place from Friday/Saturday air coming down and track of Low brings a decent shot of snow across AL/GA


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Ya'll stay safe up there.


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## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

I am seeing a good storm hitting Summerville. With a slight bow so could be windy.


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## jbird1 (Dec 23, 2017)

malak05 said:


> 2 potential systems to talk about for upcoming 8-9 days.
> 
> Thursday/Friday all models have soon this low pressure and cold press down into south in varying degrees the Track of Low and HP position say CAD event with all the way running from NE Ga all way down to I-20 west of Atlanta, models have a hard time depicting strength of CAD and I was thought CMC is one of the better one to depict CAD and it's a major ice storm potential.
> 
> New Years eve and New Years day several models have had strong signal of a classic Miller A type storm with good cold air in place from Friday/Saturday air coming down and track of Low brings a decent shot of snow across AL/GA



I'll pass on the CAD event, obviously....but a Miller A with entrenched cold sounds fun.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

We really do need more radars around cause these dead spots especially with Huntsville making telling velocity difficult on radarscope. Looks like the Spotter Network works now. Had one at 10 something in Alabama.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Sounds like you want another Superstorm of 93 lol.


----------



## nickel back (Dec 23, 2017)

malak05 said:


> 2 potential systems to talk about for upcoming 8-9 days.
> 
> Thursday/Friday all models have soon this low pressure and cold press down into south in varying degrees the Track of Low and HP position say CAD event with all the way running from NE Ga all way down to I-20 west of Atlanta, models have a hard time depicting strength of CAD and I was thought CMC is one of the better one to depict CAD and it's a major ice storm potential.
> 
> New Years eve and New Years day several models have had strong signal of a classic Miller A type storm with good cold air in place from Friday/Saturday air coming down and track of Low brings a decent shot of snow across AL/GA



Thanks


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 23, 2017)

Cow and flat rock in north Paulding right now


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 23, 2017)

malak05 said:


> 2 potential systems to talk about for upcoming 8-9 days.
> 
> Thursday/Friday all models have soon this low pressure and cold press down into south in varying degrees the Track of Low and HP position say CAD event with all the way running from NE Ga all way down to I-20 west of Atlanta, models have a hard time depicting strength of CAD and I was thought CMC is one of the better one to depict CAD and it's a major ice storm potential.
> 
> New Years eve and New Years day several models have had strong signal of a classic Miller A type storm with good cold air in place from Friday/Saturday air coming down and track of Low brings a decent shot of snow across AL/GA



Malak,
I truly appreciate your posts and insight with Miggy and DDD. But, can you please work on your puncuation cause I'm nearly illiterate, half blind, and confused enough most of the time as it is!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

krisjack said:


> Sounds like you want another Superstorm of 93 lol.



I'm just hoping that CAD scenario doesn't develop and we get a repeat of 73...


----------



## Hornet22 (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm just hoping that CAD scenario doesn't develop and we get a repeat of 73...



Mz tutu just read me what DDD posted over yonder, that sounds plum scary. I wish ya'll wasn't so right on the predictions sometimes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Hornet22 said:


> Mz tutu just read me what DDD posted over yonder, that sounds plum scary. I wish ya'll wasn't so right on the predictions sometimes.



I hope we miss this one so bad it is embarrassing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> It is 65* here and light rain. You can hear the wind absolutely howling overhead, but it's fairly still on the ground here at just under 3,000' elevation. Kind of weird.



Wind friction is some freaky stuff. It can sound like a jet airplane that never goes away, or it can have an oscillation to it that is really like something out of a Stephen King movie.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 23, 2017)

Bought time for a good roof sit


----------



## nickel back (Dec 23, 2017)

Hornet22 said:


> Mz tutu just read me what DDD posted over yonder, that sounds plum scary. I wish ya'll wasn't so right on the predictions sometimes.


Glad I'm south of ATL......NW jog will be my friend this time


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 23, 2017)

I can do without the ice, but some cold weather would be right nice for down here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

nickel back said:


> Glad I'm south of ATL......NW jog will be my friend this time



CAD systems dont jog NW


----------



## nickel back (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> CAD systems dont jog NW



Good point.....well I'm sure I'm still to far south west


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 23, 2017)

My knee only predicts 5 days out!


----------



## Bnathanb1982 (Dec 23, 2017)

Anybody have the Facebook names/twitter handles to follow DDD and Miguel for their weather pages on FB and twitter that they apparently have?


----------



## Mac (Dec 23, 2017)

following


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Bnathanb1982 said:


> Anybody have the Facebook names/twitter handles to follow DDD and Miguel for their weather pages on FB and twitter that they apparently have?



The only one I know is the one on twitter called GON Weather Guy and that blog they started. Other than that I don't know.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Yeah, Miguel, I'd rather have snow than that ice storm. Wedges are a tricky thing to predict.I was just watching all that air and huge fronts and highs spreading that cold air in Canada and that warm blocking to the North and I just knew that air would force to come south eventually which is why I predicted this cold January. They are saying that we are supposed to be in an Ill Nino but it been more like an El Nina but I believe we are in a neutral stage.It has been a crazy year weather wise with everything that has gone on especially down here in Albany with the wind and tornado damage we've had in January.


----------



## Matthew6 (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm just hoping that CAD scenario doesn't develop and we get a repeat of 73...



1973? dang you're old.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 23, 2017)

Yeah, that was before my time Mathew6 haha.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Matthew6 said:


> 1973? dang you're old.



Almost as old as you.


----------



## Matthew6 (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Almost as old as you.



least we aint elfiiiiii old  merry christmas


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Matthew6 said:


> least we aint elfiiiiii old  merry christmas



You mean one foot in the grave old? 

Merry Christmas bro.


----------



## Milkman (Dec 23, 2017)

Yep
January 1973 was a biggun I was a senior in HS. Closed school for a week. Threw us to have to graduate in June.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Milkman said:


> Yep
> January 1973 was a biggun I was a senior in HS. Closed school for a week. Threw us to have to graduate in June.



Dang, you're old too.......


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 23, 2017)

Yeah, I don’t like those Ice maps at all on DDD twitter Feed. Hopefully, it’ll trend away in time...


----------



## Milkman (Dec 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dang, you're old too.......



I used to think getting old was better than the alternative. Now I’m not so sure some days.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 23, 2017)

Please try to stay on topic


----------



## DDD (Dec 23, 2017)

Alright... so the pictures are fixed... lets see.......


----------



## DDD (Dec 23, 2017)

I am going to stay up tonight and wait on the EURO models.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 23, 2017)

DDD said:


> Alright... so the pictures are fixed... lets see.......



That looks like a significant ice storm


----------



## DDD (Dec 23, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> That looks like a significant ice storm



It could be sleet and freezing rain.  Much like 2014's storm that hit in February.


----------



## 95g atl (Dec 23, 2017)

yikes!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

Milkman said:


> I used to think getting old was better than the alternative. Now I’m not so sure some days.


Ain't that the truth. 


blood on the ground said:


> Please try to stay on topic



You just get your lawn chair and track spikes ready.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 23, 2017)

I don't like the way that looks .......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I don't like the way that looks .......



I don't think anybody with a lick of sense does.


----------



## malak05 (Dec 23, 2017)

Freezing Rain totals from the CMC tonight for Friday event. It's been the most aggressive with amounts but Euro is not far off in amounts in same areas. In addition some of the wind maps I looked at seem to show 10 to 20 knot winds for region. Triple D and Miggy your thoughts on the winds for this system?

As we know Ice and wind are not good bed fellows.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Freezing Rain totals from the CMC tonight for Friday event. It's been the most aggressive with amounts but Euro is not far off in amounts in same areas. In addition some of the wind maps I looked at seem to show 10 to 20 knot winds for region. Triple D and Miggy your thoughts on the winds for this system?
> 
> As we know Ice and wind are not good bed fellows.



Just took a look at the climatology updates (MJO, EPO & NAO) and all seem to be backing away from this trend. Still too many days to go before we get a consensus on this one.


----------



## DDD (Dec 24, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Freezing Rain totals from the CMC tonight for Friday event. It's been the most aggressive with amounts but Euro is not far off in amounts in same areas. In addition some of the wind maps I looked at seem to show 10 to 20 knot winds for region. Triple D and Miggy your thoughts on the winds for this system?
> 
> As we know Ice and wind are not good bed fellows.



That clown map does not account for IP (Sleet).  Sleet tends to pump these totals up.  

What it does tell me is the CMC and the EURO and now the GFS seem to think there is one nasty mess coming.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 24, 2017)

Dang it


----------



## gasmasher (Dec 24, 2017)

My wife is driving up to NE TN (Kingsport) on Wednesday and planning to come back Friday. We bought her a Subaru Forester with Xmode and S-AWD last year. I'm watching you guys to decide if it is too dangerous. I'm concerned for the drive and my MIL.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

gasmasher said:


> My wife is driving up to NE TN (Kingsport) on Wednesday and planning to come back Friday. We bought her a Subaru Forester with Xmode and S-AWD last year. I'm watching you guys to decide if it is too dangerous. I'm concerned for the drive and my MIL.



As positive as the models may be for the next few runs, Tuesday would be the day where all will be on board with this or not. If it is still showing as strong as it is now then even the pros will be talking about it by then. 

AWD and 4WD mean nothing on ice.


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 24, 2017)

Going to bed. Hope to wake up to better news!


----------



## gasmasher (Dec 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> AWD and 4WD mean nothing on ice.


I know; she isn't experienced with AWD yet. I'll keep watching you guys. I can persuade her not to go if needed. I love my MIL but kids don't need to go skating around in an SUV. :thumbs up emote:

She has hit the air bags twice in the last few years but not her fault in either case. Totaled 2 vehicles.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 24, 2017)

Yeah new run still shows icy conditions. I really hope it doesn't verify. Hopefully it is under playing the cold air and get snow instead or mud warmer and be rain but I really don't want a jet stream and cold air behind a potential severe weather. Tuesday night we'll get a better idea what's going on. These things change a lot and if this still is showing up at 72 and 48 hours then we can have a good idea what will happen. I never trust a model this far out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

Call me negative Nancy, fly in the soup, poop in the punch bowl, whatever euphemism you wish to choose, but I have to throw this out there so everyone understands the back and forth that goes on between Mark and I when discussing upcoming weather behind the scenes.

I am looking at products available other than models, because they can frequently let you down when attempting to nail down a forecast. I am looking strictly at the 29th maps and potential on climate graphs for this period. To the maps, There is indication of a lower pressure trough from surface to 500mb heights. (18,000+ ft). That being said, there is a complete lack of a High Pressure system in the Atlantic for this period to force the extreme cold in the atmosphere to trough more southerly. This means nothing in terms of normal winter weather, but is everything on how far south the coldest of air comes.

Looking at the minor dips / troughs in the layers up to 500mb there is indication of of a CAD trough at the surface, but here's where I get hung up. That cold air is up over the Canadian border in the NE US. NOW, because it is a damming situation (CAD = Cold Air Damming) I next look at the 850mb (4700 +ft) map to see if there is a southerly flow characteristic to this damming, which there is. At 850 mb the coldest of the air is still up on the border with any hint of damming not showing up until the Pennsylvania / Virginia line. On a positive note, the 850mb freezing line (540) is knocking on the door of the NC / GA corner. This means higher elevations in these regions will have good cold air at altitude. It also leaves the potential for cold air falling to the surface (because that's what it does) will be able to follow the path of least resistance, (lower pressure). My hangup is we are talking borderline freezing temps from this geographic juncture on down the line into Ga. to create the surface cold needed to give us a good CAD / freezing at the surface event.

Personally I would feel as confident as the models are showing if we had a good Atlantic High to force the 500mb cold well south of the Canadian border and give a stronger push to this surface cold that the models thus far are betting on being in place when we get the moisture for the Low that is suppose to set up off of the SC coast.

Another set of data I am looking at (and still learning) is the Climate data, which gives us a better picture for medium range forecast potential. The MJO was rocking and rolling right up to Phase 8, showing a strong potential for bringing really cold weather to the SE on the northern hemisphere merry go round. The problem is, the progs for the next couple of weeks have taken a sharp turn to the center of the meteogram indicating a good weakening in the climate cycle which would allow the coldest of air to stay well north of us (which is reflected in the 500mb maps)

Next the EPO and NAO, both which favor us for good winter events when they are negative (below the baseline). Both have shifted to show a more neutral trend around the 29th which COULD still allow a CAD event to occur, but is not the optimal scenario for winter weather in the SE. With an absence of a good negative EPO and NAO and complete lack of blocking in the Atlantic I am leaning towards the models backing off from this forecast over the next few days.

I have absolutely no problem being wrong in attempting to prognosticate what the weather will do, since I usually only look at the maps where severe weather is concerned and am extremely happy when things don't go my way. This means property isn't destroyed and lives aren't lost.

Most people think of "severe weather" as Supercell storms, tornados (naders and spinny things) but a strong icing event is just as deadly as a tornado outbreak, and don't revel in such events. In fact they cause me a great deal of anxiety knowing that 99% of the population doesn't prepare for severe weather, of either variety. My greatest angst is for the elderly that live alone. There is very little communal concern for our neighbors in today's society and this demographic is the most vulnerable to power outages, freezing temps, etc.

So, that being said, I hope you'll forgive me if I seem pessimistic in my outlook for what the models are laying down. For the sake of those young and old who fail to mitigate future devastating weather, whether it be a supercell outbreak or a devastating snow / ice event, I want people to be informed and prepared, and above all, I want them to be sympathetic to those who can't prepare and need attention and assistance should such weather actually occur.

I'm sure it was all of the FEMA training I went through that has brought me to this point, but it is also a passion in this weather hobby that gives me a desire to understand all angles of the "what, why and where" an event might or might not occur.

In about three days we will know for sure which way this forecast is going to go. By then it will be too late if you aren't already prepared. Take everything we say as concern, but not the gospel until all models, climatic and model products, are on board. BUT please do use what we see as potential upcoming weather as a reminder to always be prepared.

Here is a checklist of items you need in preparation for events such as are being proposed by the models. Use it. Make a plan for your family, your elderly neighbors and be prepared (sounds boy scoutish, but it's true)

https://www.fema.gov/media-library-.../PrepareAthon_WINTER STORMS_HTG_FINAL_508.pdf


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## jbird1 (Dec 24, 2017)

Excellent write up^^

Hope you are correct and the ice stays away.


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## mguthrie (Dec 24, 2017)

I hope your right about this one Miguel. We don't need no stinking ice storm. I used my genny on a jobsite last week so I'm good to go. We have plenty of groceries stored and my gas fireplaces work without power. Just got a new to me 4 wheeler if it comes down to that for transportation. Just need to fill gas cans and we'll be ready. Thanks for all you and DDD do


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> I hope your right about this one Miguel. We don't need no stinking ice storm. I used my genny on a jobsite last week so I'm good to go. We have plenty of groceries stored and my gas fireplaces work without power. Just got a new to me 4 wheeler if it comes down to that for transportation. Just need to fill gas cans and we'll be ready. Thanks for all you and DDD do



Don't forget a 2-way radio relay network with neighbors and family. Cell phone batteries die faster in colder temps and the cell phone network can't always be depended on to be there should an icing event occur. 

Also I can't say it often enough, Weather Radio, Weather Radio, Weather radio, and plenty of batteries. These come in handy for flashlights too, which I have an extensive collection of.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 24, 2017)

For all you Gentlemen do, thank you and Merry Christmas.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> For all you Gentlemen do, thank you and Merry Christmas.



Thank you sir. Merry Christmas to you and the Redhead, and that rambunctious youngun you raised. Hope all is well with him.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 24, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> For all you Gentlemen do, thank you and Merry Christmas.



Ditto to you all.  Nic too


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

It's that time again. Track Santa with your kids courtesy of NORAD. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Santa is getting ready to launch! Good thing the folks @NoradSanta know just where he is. ? pic.twitter.com/K3Ur9WUU4V</p>— U.S. Dept of Defense (@DeptofDefense) December 24, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Nicodemus (Dec 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Thank you sir. Merry Christmas to you and the Redhead, and that rambunctious youngun you raised. Hope all is well with him.





PappyHoel said:


> Ditto to you all.  Nic too


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## Patriot44 (Dec 24, 2017)

If there is any good news is that every weak tree and limb is already on the ground. I don't ever remember seeing so many pine limbs down. Thousands and thousands, every single tree lost at least on limb.


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## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 24, 2017)

Not for us in the eastern piedmont. Our pine limbs are still intact and prime and ready for a mess


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2017)

deerhuntingdawg said:


> Not for us in the eastern piedmont. Our pine limbs are still intact and prime and ready for a mess



This is true. Those of us that missed the last event are primed for a mess.


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## tcward (Dec 24, 2017)

Guys are we in for something New Years Eve? Hearing it could be worse?


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## blood on the ground (Dec 24, 2017)

Spittin snow in the 30132


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## smokey30725 (Dec 24, 2017)

Local news says no worries. Sleet turning to rain. All is well, lol.


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## Bnathanb1982 (Dec 24, 2017)

*Right*



smokey30725 said:


> Local news says no worries. Sleet turning to rain. All is well, lol.



As long as the LOCAL news has it under control, not worries!  What possibly could they get wrong


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## krisjack (Dec 25, 2017)

Looks like Euro model already backed off. I am still going to wait and see what it does through Wednesday.


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## krisjack (Dec 25, 2017)

GFS still showing ice and Nam starting to agree at last frame.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

Briefly, this morning. ***This is not a Forecast***

The Euro has begun agreeing with the climate diatribe I posted yesterday and is showing a moisture starved system for the 29th with no CAD event this far south.

The GFS is still clinging to a later event on Friday, but is buying into part of the CMC concept of down slope cooling from the north, which I can't ever remember happening absent a CAD setup. However the 540 freezing line is north of the Ga. line.

The CMC, as typical, brings the 540 freezing line deep into Ga. moving the winter event deep into Ga with the same downslope cooling effect with snow north of I-20 and ice and sleet south.

The NAM is just coming into range and still showing a strong CAD setup but hinting at being moisture starved as well.

I don't see the CMC as a potentially valid product at this point since it isn't uncommon for it to trend colder than normal. And as I said before, I can't remember downslope cooling from a cold area to our north. The largest factor is most of the moisture at this point, what little there is, has been shifted to South Georgia.

We'll wait and see what DDD's take on this morning's models are, but looking at the MJO NCPE and ECMF products nothing has changed in it's strength giving no energy to this cold system to help it southward. Without a strong CAD setup wintry weather will be difficult to produce.

Your's truly, Negative Nancy. ?

1st map = Euro
2nd map = GFS
3rd map = CMC


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

tcward said:


> Guys are we in for something New Years Eve? Hearing it could be worse?



I would like to know where you've heard or saw this?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

Oh, and one more thing.


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 25, 2017)

Merry Christmas, Messican! It's a nice balmy 21 here this morning with 40mph wind gusts. Brrr.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Merry Christmas, Messican! It's a nice balmy 21 here this morning with 40mph wind gusts. Brrr.



That'll cut right through your boxers.


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 25, 2017)

Yep.  A few snow flakes flying around now, too.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 25, 2017)

Thermometer says 22.  I assembled a trampoline yesterday in short sleeves.  It now has a glaze of ice on it.


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## Mountainbuck (Dec 25, 2017)

Local met sounding the alarm for Thursday/Friday


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## mguthrie (Dec 25, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I would like to know where you've heard or saw this?



Fox5 and weather channel has a 20% chance of rain snow mix in their forecast Sunday. Not much of a chance but it's there


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> Fox5 and weather channel has a 20% chance of rain snow mix in their forecast Sunday. Not much of a chance but it's there



Yeah, I wouldn't give that one much weight unless the pacific low actually makes it across Mexico into the gulf and becomes a reality, then we'll have to pay attention to it.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 25, 2017)

Seems like there's all kinds of prognostications out there. I'll just stick with what our resident experts have to say.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2017)

Forecast models are following the climate models on backing off from the icing event for Friday, but we aren't letting go of that just yet. Things can change rapidly right up to the day with these type systems so we will continue to monitor that event. 

__________________________________________

New Discussion - Jan. 1st - 3rd 2018 ***Not a Forecast***

Though it is 7 days out and maps could be posted, I'm not going to because of the timing and depth of events that need to occur to make things interesting.

What I will say is it isn't going to warm up much this week and the largest mass of cold air, if the Euro and GFS can be believed will be coming in around the 31st through the 2nd or 3rd of January. I'm talking 850mb (4000+ft) temps in the 5°F range, which translates to us that live in the 700 to 1000 ft elevation range will be lucky to see highs get out of the 30's between the 1st and 3rd, with higher elevations even colder. Lows should hit the teens for those nights. Up in the mountains where you are closer to the 850mb height around 3000ft elevation you will be even colder.

This is supported by the Climate Models (MJO) specifically the NCPE and ECMF members swinging decidedly stronger during that period.

The prospect of a 1015 gulf low forming off of the Texas coast and bringing moisture up through here during the beginning phases of that cold air intrusion are still up in the air. Timing will be everything, so I'll leave that alone for now.

By Wednesday we should be posting some maps to show just how cold and how deep into the state this will come. We should have a better idea about available moisture by then too.

Don't put up those sweaters and heavy coats just yet. Shut off the outside faucets and winterize them and make sure that firewood is stocked up good.

More to come on this cold blast in a couple of days.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 25, 2017)

Waiting...


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## Jeff C. (Dec 25, 2017)

Good grief, I don't mind some cold temps, but just don't care for those pipe bursting lows.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 25, 2017)

Please no Ice anything but ice


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## smokey30725 (Dec 26, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Please no Ice anything but ice



Amen to that


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

***Not a Forecast***

You'll have to be patient as I'm backing in to this precipitation discussion (temps covered in the last one). 6 days out and confidence at this point is low. 20% chance at best right now for the Jan. 1st potential. A lot could change between now and next Monday so we'll ride this one until confidence of an event or non-event are higher.

#1 model is the NAM 32KM which reaches out to the 29th, the previous event we have been discussing. I am presenting this model for two reasons. (A) to show the relationship to the Low Pressure System for available moisture and position of the cold air High Pressure system for the 29th, giving extremely low confidence for an event on the 29th. But more importantly (B) the position of that Low Pressure moisture as it will come into play with the GFS maps I'll show here for the potential on the 1st of Jan. 2018.

#2 are the WPC Experimental winter precip % chances of an event. As I stated in the beginning, 20% at best right now.

#3 GFS models showing influence from the 1016 low in the gulf and the low off of the SC coast (covered in the NAM 32km #1 discussion so it most likely won't be there by 01/01/18) The GFS is the most aggressive with two lows providing moisture for the system of cold air coming in later than the other images I'll be showing here. Timing is contrary to other solutions so I'm putting the GFS as a slim to none chance for now.

#4 EURO model showing moisture well south of the cold not available to provide a wintry mix for northern sectors of the state, though it does give Charlston area a shot at a brief rain/snow mix.

#5 WPC fronts map showing the cold barreling all of the way to Cuba and the Texas low riding that front well south of us making anything a non-event for the SE and triple High Pressure systems stacked to our north bring the brutal cold air in to punish us.

#6 Finally, the MJO climate forecast ECMF member agreeing that cold air will be available as it gains decided strengthening, but the problem is this is entering phase 2 of the graph and for us to benefit from a good system we need this strengthening in Phase 8 & Phase 1 (still sorting all of this out in my head)

Synopsis - It will be brutally cold at some point with this arctic blast coming into the SE. For there to be a wintry event of any type the moisture needs to be available as the cold air arrives and confidence at this point is extremely low. Timing is everything and 6 days out is just too far to know the when and where of that timing, but climate and forecast models at this point don't seem to support anything too much for the SE in the way of precip right now.

(maps continued on next post as limits on GON won't allow them all on one page)


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

(maps continued from previous post)


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Also going to toss in this NWS PTC (KFFC) graph that illustrates the high / low temps and percentage chance of precip moving into the 1st of Jan.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 26, 2017)

Locals calling for 40% chance of light snow on Friday and Sunday.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Now that the NAM is in range it is calling for a fairly brutal icing event from Columbus down below Macon and up the Ga / SC coast for the 29th. I'll believe it when I see it.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Locals calling for 40% chance of light snow on Friday and Sunday.



I'm not really sure what they are looking at to get that.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 26, 2017)

Weather Undergroud has 40% chance of snow on the 1st for the CSRA.


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 26, 2017)

So, what are the realistic temps for highs and lows, middle of this week to middle of next week looking like ?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> So, what are the realistic temps for highs and lows, middle of this week to middle of next week looking like ?



Bad. Middle of next week, depending on where you are, you will be lucky to see mid 30's for highs, and even lower the further north you are. 

Here is the updated NWS WPC map for percentage chance of ice beginning the evening of the 28th through the 29th. 
This does not make me happy and I am going to have to remind the weather makers that I still have an unused sled from the 2010 event that keeps me immune from having such weather.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 26, 2017)

Baa it aint going ta do nuthin!!!


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 26, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Bad. Middle of next week, depending on where you are, you will be lucky to see mid 30's for highs, and even lower the further north you are.
> 
> Here is the updated NWS WPC map for percentage chance of ice beginning the evening of the 28th through the 29th.
> This does not make me happy and I am going to have to remind the weather makers that I still have an unused sled from the 2010 event that keeps me immune from having such weather.



OK, I am here in East Paulding, Ga


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 26, 2017)

I've already had several of my UGA buddies move their flights from Friday morning to Thursday morning/afternoon just to ensure they don't get caught in any mess.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Baa it aint going ta do nuthin!!!



Fingers crossed you are right. I don't mind the cold air but the funny stuff makes me exponentially grumpier than normal.


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 26, 2017)

I would advise that, icy weather or not...Have a cold weather survival kit in your ride ! I work 3rd shift and have a 2016 corolla but that means nothing if... something happens and I am stuck on the side of the road...an extra jacket and or coat, hand warmers, water, a few crackers, some granola or energy bars, gloves and good warm waterproof boots, cables and a good flashlight, also, a charger you can plug into you vehicle to keep your cellphone charged...could really help to keep a uncomfortable situation, from being dangerous.


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## 3ringer (Dec 26, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> I would advise that, icy weather or not...Have a cold weather survival kit in your ride ! I work 3rd shift and have a 2016 corolla but that means nothing if... something happens and I am stuck on the side of the road...an extra jacket and or coat, hand warmers, water, a few crackers, some granola or energy bars, gloves and good warm waterproof boots, cables and a good flashlight, also, a charger you can plug into you vehicle to keep your cellphone charged...could really help to keep a uncomfortable situation, from being dangerous.



Good information


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> I would advise that, icy weather or not...Have a cold weather survival kit in your ride ! I work 3rd shift and have a 2016 corolla but that means nothing if... something happens and I am stuck on the side of the road...an extra jacket and or coat, hand warmers, water, a few crackers, some granola or energy bars, gloves and good warm waterproof boots, cables and a good flashlight, also, a charger you can plug into you vehicle to keep your cellphone charged...could really help to keep a uncomfortable situation, from being dangerous.



https://lookaside.fbsbx.com/file/FE...mlEfsFJ4awtGLIeamqqUTYRaQJqe5FkxEVOceIpR_sCTT


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Might be a flake or two flying tomorrow morning around 
Rome / Cartersville. Don't say we didn't tell you it might happen.


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## elandil (Dec 26, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Might be a flake or two flying tomorrow morning around
> Rome / Cartersville. Don't say we didn't tell you it might happen.



yeah...and I travel 75 right thru the middle of it to get to work....looking like a fun few days....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2017)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017

GAZ011>014-019>025-027-030>037-041>048-052>055-057-270500-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Floyd-Bartow-Cherokee-Forsyth-
Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-
Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-
South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-
Clayton-Henry-
234 PM EST Tue Dec 26 2017

...Potential for brief wintry mix late tonight...

Light precipitation is expected to overspread much of central and
north Georgia after midnight, tonight. The precipitation is
expected to mainly be in the form of a cold rain, however, brief
periods of light sleet could mix in with the rain, mainly along
and north of I-20, late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

No ice or sleet accumulations are expected as temperatures remain
above freezing.


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## Greene728 (Dec 26, 2017)

Next weeks temps are ridiculous!


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## PappyHoel (Dec 26, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Next weeks temps are ridiculous!



Says 13 here on Monday.  I will hunt as long as it’s not icy.  It says frozen precipitation on weather underground.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 26, 2017)

Been doing work stuff. What's the latest?


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## YankeeRedneck (Dec 26, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> I would advise that, icy weather or not...Have a cold weather survival kit in your ride ! I work 3rd shift and have a 2016 corolla but that means nothing if... something happens and I am stuck on the side of the road...an extra jacket and or coat, hand warmers, water, a few crackers, some granola or energy bars, gloves and good warm waterproof boots, cables and a good flashlight, also, a charger you can plug into you vehicle to keep your cellphone charged...could really help to keep a uncomfortable situation, from being dangerous.


 I work 3rd. shift also and I really appreciate this post!!
It's a good reminder of what I need to have with me when I go to work Thursday evening. Thanks for posting this.


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## krisjack (Dec 26, 2017)

If this verifies it'll be nuts for southern Georgia.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 27, 2017)

The Chance of freezing rain on ThurSday  has disappeared from the forecast


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## blood on the ground (Dec 27, 2017)

Little ice on the truck this morning


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 27, 2017)

#iceontheground


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## jbird1 (Dec 27, 2017)

Got a little dusting here in far N Forsyth...still falling a little


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## mguthrie (Dec 27, 2017)

Ummm yea. Where did this come from? No mention of it 24 hrs ago


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> Ummm yea. Where did this come from? No mention of it 24 hrs ago



See post #931 & 933.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 27, 2017)

45 with a light steady rain here in the deerstand in Lee County right now.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> 45 with a light steady rain here in the deerstand in Lee County right now.



That is brrrrr and rain which = light brrrain.......


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 27, 2017)

39 and light rain... at the old plutonium dumping ground


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2017)

krisjack said:


> If this verifies it'll be nuts for southern Georgia.



It would, but right now the MJO ECMF climate model says it isn't a possibility. If some of the other members, such as the BOMM turn out right and the strengthening occurs into Phase 1 instead of Phase 2 as currently forecast then things could get interesting, but so far the ECMF climate model has been pretty good. 

Either way, it us guaranteed to be bone chilling cold next week. Beyond that the models are in an MMA brawl trying to take us back to a weaker MJO pattern which would mean a return to a more moderate temperature pattern for the remainder of January. Time will tell.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 27, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That is brrrrr and rain which = light brrrain.......



Too bad the temps won't drop enough to turn this to snow. Be fun to change tactics and do some stalk hunting.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 27, 2017)

It doesn't rain in Southern California.  Like never, ever.  

But the Dawgs come to town for the Rose Bowl and BAM - rain forecast for Monday the 1st.  I'm saying lots of bad words currently.


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## mguthrie (Dec 27, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> See post #931 & 933.



I didn't check here yesterday afternoon or watch local news last night.


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## malak05 (Dec 27, 2017)

Jan. 1st thru 4th appears to hold a whole lot of potential for the SE. The main models GFS, CMC, and now the Euro all have varying degrees of winter weather more snowy then icy in that period will bare some watching in coming days.


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## jbird1 (Dec 27, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Jan. 1st thru 4th appears to hold a whole lot of potential for the SE. The main models GFS, CMC, and now the Euro all have varying degrees of winter weather more snowy then icy in that period will bare some watching in coming days.


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## Water Swat (Dec 27, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Too bad the temps won't drop enough to turn this to snow. Be fun to change tactics and do some stalk hunting.



Just dont hunt alone Nic.  Scary critters in them woods.


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## Buckfever 2 (Dec 27, 2017)

what are the chances of snow in nw ga. around new years


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## Water Swat (Dec 27, 2017)

Buckfever 2 said:


> what are the chances of snow in nw ga. around new years



Theyll know on new years eve.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 27, 2017)

Water Swat said:


> Just dont hunt alone Nic.  Scary critters in them woods.





For sure. Down here in these swamps we got critters that can and will make you disappear from the face of this earth.  And leave no trace of you.


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## orrb (Dec 27, 2017)

I want it to get cold enough to kill some insects.  Besides, it would just be nice to have a nice cold winter, snow would just be a plus. So when will the next storm try to hit. <3 

Did I mention I love winter.


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## jbird1 (Dec 27, 2017)

Malak....throw up the clown maps!!


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## greg_n_clayton (Dec 27, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> For sure. Down here in these swamps we got critters that can and will make you disappear from the face of this earth.  And leave no trace of you.



There is....critters like you speak of up here too !! Only difference is.....these up here talk to ya !!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 28, 2017)

Morning everybody. Sugar is in the air. Seems like the days are dragging along getting to those two most important games on Monday. Roll Tide / Go Dawgs!!!

***Not a forecast***

Looking at all of the maps this morning seems like the MJO is once again going to prove reliable for New Years Day. Keeping the strengthening in Phase 2 keeps us out of the slop, thus far. All forecast models I looked at this morning are showing a giant nothingburger in the way of any troubling precip for Monday. I know a few have jumped in and out of the wintry mix idea over the last day or so, but they have pretty much vacated that idea this morning.

As to cold, there's going to be plenty of it to go around, even for our friends down in SOWEGA. Here's a sample of what you can expect when you wake up Tuesday morning, and the highs for Tuesday afternoon. Those temps drop even more around the 4th & 5th. Drop them around another 10°F if the Polar Vortex reaches as deep into Ga as it is showing.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 28, 2017)

Wow,  that's getting stupid cold

Got several good friends going camping for New Years.  They tried to talk us into bringing our camper as well.  I already had it winterized and didn't feel like pulling it up there for two days at a local state park.  Then the Dawgs got in the Rose Bowl and I had an even better excuse.

Looks like they may only get 12-16 hours of time ABOVE freezing the entire 3 days they're in the park.  I'm anxious to see if they can keep a camper above 50 degrees on the inside when it's 15 on the outside.  I have my doubts.  I've never tried it and don't really care to.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 28, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Wow,  that's getting stupid cold
> 
> Got several good friends going camping for New Years.  They tried to talk us into bringing our camper as well.  I already had it winterized and didn't feel like pulling it up there for two days at a local state park.  Then the Dawgs got in the Rose Bowl and I had an even better excuse.
> 
> Looks like they may only get 12-16 hours of time ABOVE freezing the entire 3 days they're in the park.  I'm anxious to see if they can keep a camper above 50 degrees on the inside when it's 15 on the outside.  I have my doubts.  I've never tried it and don't really care to.




When we were much younger, a group of us boys used to camp every New Years.  Of course we were in tents.  One year it got down to 3 degrees.  The pot of chili I had cooked on my Coleman stove froze solid after dinner and when we went to heat it up for round 2 around 10:00 that night, you could pick the whole pot up by the spoon that was frozen upright.  

That's the last time we camped on New Years.


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## dwhee87 (Dec 28, 2017)

Brrr. About all I'll say about that.


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## JonathanG2013 (Dec 28, 2017)

I remember 1/30/14 it was zero degrees in Canton.


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## Fletch_W (Dec 28, 2017)

I wonder what's going to be cheaper, my gas bill or just taking a trip down to south Florida for a week.


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## Priest (Dec 28, 2017)

Fletch_W said:


> I wonder what's going to be cheaper, my gas bill or just taking a trip down to south Florida for a week.




You'd still have to run the heat unless you plan to drain your pipes, water heater, toilet tank, etc before you leave.  I helped a guy re-hab his house after taking a winter vacation and shutting down his heat with cold like this coming. The toilets all broke, the P-Traps in all his drains split, water heater split (electric and he threw the breaker off before leaving), pipes burst, it did a number on his house.


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## RinggoldGa (Dec 28, 2017)

Priest said:


> You'd still have to run the heat unless you plan to drain your pipes, water heater, toilet tank, etc before you leave.  I helped a guy re-hab his house after taking a winter vacation and shutting down his heat with cold like this coming. The toilets all broke, the P-Traps in all his drains split, water heater split (electric and he threw the breaker off before leaving), pipes burst, it did a number on his house.



Three years ago when we had a run of single digit temps in NW Ga we came home to two inches of water in the first level of our house and waterfalls coming out the can lights in our kitchen.  

Turns out the plumber who worked on a renovation of our second floor thought running plumbing in the attic without any insulation on it was a good idea.  

That sucked.  But wow, never heard of someone having that many issues as you described.  Bet that got $$$


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## 1eyefishing (Dec 28, 2017)

I REALLY do NOT miss trying to take care of my tree equipment (bobcat, chipper, and F800) through the winter.
Smells like freedom!


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## snarlinbear (Dec 28, 2017)

Where are the Guru's with their take on this weather anomaly we are in the midst of?  Colder in the continental U.S. than in Siberia.  Computer modeling in my opinion has to be questionable at best.  How many times have models been haywire in less extreme situations.  At least step up to the plate and give us their opinion.  I trust them more than TV mets.  Even if they make a WAG at the situation, I'm on the edge of my seat!  From the looks of viewers everyone else has given up.


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## Walker44 (Dec 28, 2017)

Just an observation -----   The woodpeckers have gone through 3 pads of suet in 2 days -------- The regular feeder for song birds has been NON STOP  ---- Deer have emptied there feeding trays each night , including the carrots and stuff they don't like  --- They know somethings up


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## snarlinbear (Dec 28, 2017)

Walker44 said:


> Just an observation -----   The woodpeckers have gone through 3 pads of suet in 2 days -------- The regular feeder for song birds has been NON STOP  ---- Deer have emptied there feeding trays each night , including the carrots and stuff they don't like  --- They know somethings up



I trust the critter sign more than TV mets.  I'm planning on battening down the hatches.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 28, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Where are the Guru's with their take on this weather anomaly we are in the midst of?  Colder in the continental U.S. than in Siberia.  Computer modeling in my opinion has to be questionable at best.  How many times have models been haywire in less extreme situations.  At least step up to the plate and give us their opinion.  I trust them more than TV mets.  Even if they make a WAG at the situation, I'm on the edge of my seat!  From the looks of viewers everyone else has given up.



Try a few posts back ?


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## Greene728 (Dec 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Try a few posts back ?


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## snarlinbear (Dec 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Try a few posts back &#55357;&#56841;



Miguel:  Unless i'm totally off base,that report  is stale over 12 hours even with erroneous GON time. 
I've never been accused of being patient.  Not trying to be a smart aleck .  Just hoping for some dialog from the GON experts and other interested parties!


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## Nicodemus (Dec 28, 2017)

Walker44 said:


> Just an observation -----   The woodpeckers have gone through 3 pads of suet in 2 days -------- The regular feeder for song birds has been NON STOP  ---- Deer have emptied there feeding trays each night , including the carrots and stuff they don't like  --- They know somethings up





The wild critters and birds carry a barometer in their heads. Way back when we did too, until we started carrying one in our pocket.


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 28, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> The wild critters and birds carry a barometer in their heads. Way back when we did too, until we started carrying one in our pocket.



I ain't got one in my head, but I do in both knees.


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## frisbeefan (Dec 28, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> Miguel:  Unless i'm totally off base,that report  is stale over 12 hours even with erroneous GON time.
> I've never been accused of being patient.  Not trying to be a smart aleck .  Just hoping for some dialog from the GON experts and other interested parties!



Lurker here but why would you question Mig and DDD ?
When it matters, unless it fits their narrative they go MIA.

Don't get me wrong. They do a great job. Glenn Burns is jealous. Trust me, But .....

They're not contractually obligated to provide a daily forecast. So...... They just disappear when it don't work for them.


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## snarlinbear (Dec 28, 2017)

frisbeefan said:


> Lurker here but why would you question Mig and DDD ?
> When it matters, unless it fits their narrative they go MIA.
> 
> Don't get me wrong. They do a great job. Glenn Burns is jealous. Trust me, But .....
> ...



I'm not questioning Miguel or DDD because I've come to trust both over the many years I have followed this site.  I am curious about the extreme outlier values that are represented by the temps in the U.S. at present.  The models should have provided something between that twelve hour window.  I was just wanting to know the latest.  I'm not computer savvy enough to get access to all that model data.  As stated i'm not a patient guy hence my my handle SNARLINBEAR!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 28, 2017)

snarlinbear said:


> I'm not questioning Miguel or DDD because I've come to trust both over the many years I have followed this site.  I am curious about the extreme outlier values that are represented by the temps in the U.S. at present.  The models should have provided something between that twelve hour window.  I was just wanting to know the latest.  I'm not computer savvy enough to get access to all that model data.  As stated i'm not a patient guy hence my my handle SNARLINBEAR!


If you read my post and observed the maps I posted you would recognize that I am posting in regards to climate models and how the forecast models are reflecting it's consistency. 

It is a more stable form of prognosis that doesn't change hourly like some forecast models and is fairly stinking reliable even 10 days out. When something changes we'll let you know. Even if something doesn't change we'll let you know on a system like this with tropospheric cold being driven down to lower latitudes and altitudes. Just not hourly or even daily. 

Appreciate your following us and we'll continue to keep you as informed as possible when we see significant weather on the horizon.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 29, 2017)

I heard from a reliable source that a little snow fell in Tifton during the night. Melted as it hit the ground.


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## snarlinbear (Dec 29, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you read my post and observed the maps I posted you would recognize that I am posting in regards to climate models and how the forecast models are reflecting it's consistency.
> 
> It is a more stable form of prognosis that doesn't change hourly like some forecast models and is fairly stinking reliable even 10 days out. When something changes we'll let you know. Even if something doesn't change we'll let you know on a system like this with tropospheric cold being driven down to lower latitudes and altitudes. Just not hourly or even daily.
> 
> Appreciate your following us and we'll continue to keep you as informed as possible when we see significant weather on the horizon.



Thanks for that update.


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 29, 2017)

BOOOO earlier this week they had us at a good chance for snow all day sunday and then Monday morning but now they have backed off any precip and just have us at 34 for a high Monday and windy. They being the local mets


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## jf950y (Dec 29, 2017)

When Ga usually gets the kind of cold we are about to get over the next week seems like it always sucks all the moisture out of our forcast. Lows in the teens or single digits = No moisture.  o well at least there is no ice in forcast.  Thank you Jesus!


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## doenightmare (Dec 29, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I heard from a reliable source that a little snow fell in Tifton during the night. Melted as it hit the ground.



I bet that was beautiful.


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## JonathanG2013 (Dec 29, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> BOOOO earlier this week they had us at a good chance for snow all day sunday and then Monday morning but now they have backed off any precip and just have us at 34 for a high Monday and windy. They being the local mets



Toyota,

You have to know models predicting snow in the South East is like passing gas. It is there one second and poof it is gone.

Kind of what DDD and Miguel has taught me. Do not trust long models for snow. I only trust snow being in Georgia if it is predicting snow 24 hours or less out.


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 29, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> Toyota,
> 
> You have to know models predicting snow in the South East is like passing gas. It is there one second and poof it is gone.
> 
> Kind of what DDD and Miguel has taught me. Do not trust long models for snow. I only trust snow being in Georgia if it is predicting snow 24 hours or less out.



True and I know. Ive just been following along here and had high hopes for a week now lol. Then a few days out my dreams are crushed 
Weve had a good snow already and if that's all I see im ok with it. However if we are getting 30s for highs and no snow id just rather skip to spring so the bass will start spawning


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## jbird1 (Dec 29, 2017)

I'm ready for a polar vortex or two.  Was it 2010 or '11 when we had the vortex slide in and got hammered with a good snow?  The kids were out of school for a week and it didn't get above freezing for many days.  The coldest I remember here in Georgia was back in the 80's when it got to -7 or -8 in Atlanta.


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## JonathanG2013 (Dec 29, 2017)

Jbird it was 2011.


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## mguthrie (Dec 29, 2017)

Next week I'll be wishing I worked inside. But I won't complain. I'd rather work through a week or 2 of cold weather than 6 months of summer


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 29, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I'm ready for a polar vortex or two.  Was it 2010 or '11 when we had the vortex slide in and got hammered with a good snow?  The kids were out of school for a week and it didn't get above freezing for many days.  The coldest I remember here in Georgia was back in the 80's when it got to -7 or -8 in Atlanta.



That winter forced me to get a wood stove for my house. After 250-300$ heating bills a few months I was over it. The ground was froze for two weeks I believe. I put in the heater and cut load after load of wood and stacked it all and since then maybe have used it 10 times lol.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 29, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> That winter forced me to get a wood stove for my house. After 250-300$ heating bills a few months I was over it. The ground was froze for two weeks I believe. I put in the heater and cut load after load of wood and stacked it all and since then maybe have used it 10 times lol.



Hard to beat a good wood stove... Got mine rollin right now


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## jbird1 (Dec 29, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> That winter forced me to get a wood stove for my house. After 250-300$ heating bills a few months I was over it. The ground was froze for two weeks I believe. I put in the heater and cut load after load of wood and stacked it all and since then maybe have used it 10 times lol.



I remember that storm because my daughter was little and was getting sick and it was a buzzer beater getting her medicine an hour before it hit....the line for the CVS pharmacy in Dawsonville was out the door, basically.  We rolled back into the house as the bottom was falling out.  Since then, they've  beefed up on brine equipment/trucks and got serious about limbing trees and keeping the power lines clear.


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## toyota4x4h (Dec 29, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Hard to beat a good wood stove... Got mine rollin right now



I love mine. I’m having trouble getting the heat out of the main living room and around into the kitchen/bedroom downstairs though. I’ve tried running the fan on the central heat air unit but it’s not pulling the heat from living room. The intake is just across room from stove. I’ve bought a fan for the heater so I’m gonna try that. I got the stove to save from running my unit but this one detail has set me back lol


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## malak05 (Dec 29, 2017)

NE High Pressure wrecking any good chances of wintry weather, suppressing any gulf moisture and energy from wrapping up and pushes out thru Southern Florida until that relaxes won't see much


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## malak05 (Dec 29, 2017)

I will say this though, some of the past 24 hours of short range models like NAM are showing a more expensive precip field to NW in South. We've seen some trending today of more IP/FZ in light amounts through MS/AL and into GA for New Years, it will bare some watching because NAM and some of the others have been pretty good with precip amounts this year and Global have played catch up to them in that regard right before events.

For what it's worth a little more subtle but the Globals are starting to show similar trends compared to past few days.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 29, 2017)

There's good discussion going on between our weather gods over on the book of faces.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 29, 2017)

malak05 said:


> NE High Pressure wrecking any good chances of wintry weather, suppressing any gulf moisture and energy from wrapping up and pushes out thru Southern Florida until that relaxes won't see much





malak05 said:


> I will say this though, some of the past 24 hours of short range models like NAM are showing a more expensive precip field to NW in South. We've seen some trending today of more IP/FZ in light amounts through MS/AL and into GA for New Years, it will bare some watching because NAM and some of the others have been pretty good with precip amounts this year and Global have played catch up to them in that regard right before events.
> 
> For what it's worth a little more subtle but the Globals are starting to show similar trends compared to past few days.


Just keep in mind, the NAM 3km forecast model is very accurate. The 12km and 32km models, not so much.


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## malak05 (Dec 29, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just keep in mind, the NAM 3km forecast model is very accurate. The 12km and 32km models, not so much.



The 3k follows same general ideas as 12k, variable resolution models sure but NAM as whole I feel has done a good job with overall moisture/precip fields this winter


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## Nicodemus (Dec 29, 2017)

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=911815


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 29, 2017)

malak05 said:


> The 3k follows same general ideas as 12k, variable resolution models sure but NAM as whole I feel has done a good job with overall moisture/precip fields this winter



The NAM 3km takes in to account more factors than the 12km and 32km do, such as air temp at altitude. Here is the argument I just posed on the "book of faces" as one other member he phrased it. 

The critical question that needs to be answered is the altitude of the moisture and can the air support the moisture. 

Temps during the estimated timing of this event will be in a favorable range at the surface up to perhaps 850 mb, but the way a low pressure system distributes moisture is by taking in moisture from the surface and dispersing it at altitude creating rain, or in this case snow. At 500mb the air temperature will be in the -27 to -31 celsius range. For this argument we will use -30 celsius which translates to -22 degrees Fahrenheit over the region where the 12k NAM is projecting snow. 

Moisture evaporates at that temperature and doesn't stand a chance. If the moisture intrudes the area at 700mb height the temps are projected to be -12 celsius or 10 degrees fahrenheit. This is a marginal range to support moisture transfer to the surface. If the moisture comes over us at 850mb the temps will be around -8 celsius or 17 degrees fahrenheit. 

The other thing to consider is this is a progressive tropopause that will be deepening with every hour that passes so temps at altitude won't be static and will be getting colder as the day goes on. Further minimizing the chances for moisture transfer to the surface. 

IF the moisture is in place before the tropopause deepens over our area then chances are good, but looking at the EURO temp maps at differing altitudes the chances aren't good. 

I believe this is what the NAM 3km is recognizing by showing rain at lower latitudes in Georgia where it is possible for the atmosphere to support it. We are at a point now where model agreement between the NAM 3km and the EURO should start coming together over the next 24 hours and will have a much clearer picture of what our potential is.


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