# Winter Weather Thread 2010-2011 (III)



## DDD (Jan 5, 2011)

Good Grief.  It's January 5th and we are on WWT (III)  


I will do my best to keep you folks informed.  

Just for sanity purposes, the IMBY questions will more than likely not get answered directly. 

I will try and put up call maps and tid bits where I can to let people know how much I think and what I see.

With that said... may we have a great snow storm minus the ice.


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## WickedKwik (Jan 5, 2011)

Yes sir....


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

Interesting snippet from the latest discussion from Peachtree City for the Friday clipper...just get the weekend started right I guess




> NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT AS STRONG IMPULSES
> CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
> FORM AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ONE WILL BE AN ALL SN EVENT WITH
> CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALL POINTING TO THIS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL
> ...


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## DDD (Jan 5, 2011)

Bigox you left out the good part from the ATL NWS...  



> CONFIDENCE IS
> FURTHER DIMINISHED BASED ON GFS POOR PERFORMANCE WITH LAST WEST
> COAST UPPER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA TWO WEEKS AGO. THAT
> SAID...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE CONSISTENT THIS WINTER AND HAVING
> ...


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## higgy (Jan 5, 2011)

Bring it DDD! Congrats again on number 3.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

JUST GREAT !!!!  That's all we need is ground temps at freezing with possible frozen precip in place when this event starts next week...

Sure wish I had the funds to go ahead and leave Tomorrow for the Bahamas for a week or so...


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## nickel back (Jan 5, 2011)

DDD said:


> Good Grief.  It's January 5th and we are on WWT (III)
> 
> 
> I will do my best to keep you folks informed.
> ...




thanks DDD....keep up the good work


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

DDD said:


> Bigox you left out the good part from the ATL NWS...



Aww man my good...with so many opportunities, I'm getting confused and trying to take it one chance at a time.  

Anyways...if I start thinking about what Sunday-Wednesday may hold too much I start feeling sick with excitement.



Miguel Cervantes said:


> JUST GREAT !!!!  That's all we need is ground temps at freezing with possible frozen precip in place when this event starts next week...
> 
> Sure wish I had the funds to go ahead and leave Tomorrow for the Bahamas for a week or so...



  At least it won't melt as it falls


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Aww man my good...with so many opportunities, I'm getting confused and trying to take it one chance at a time.
> 
> Anyways...if I start thinking about what Sunday-Wednesday may hold too much I start feeling sick with excitement.
> 
> ...


 
That does it. You're the one with the new Stump Smoker. You and your bride prepare to have two extra adults and an 11 year old kid as guest for the upcoming week. If I've gotta suffer through this stuff I might as well be able to eat good.


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## Bitteroot (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That does it. You're the one with the new Stump Smoker. You and your bride prepare to have two extra adults and an 11 year old kid as guest for the upcoming week. If I've gotta suffer through this stuff I might as well be able to eat good.




I've got a bigger man cave....with cable....  Better yet.. bring the ox with ya...


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That does it. You're the one with the new Stump Smoker. You and your bride prepare to have two extra adults and an 11 year old kid as guest for the upcoming week. If I've gotta suffer through this stuff I might as well be able to eat good.



Comeon over....The freezer is full, just had a load of good firewood delivered, and have plenty of lump to cook with


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## crackerdave (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> JUST GREAT !!!!  That's all we need is ground temps at freezing with possible frozen precip in place when this event starts next week...
> 
> Sure wish I had the funds to go ahead and leave Tomorrow for the Bahamas for a week or so...


Hey - let's hitch a ride with pbradley.He won th' dang _lottery!_


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## Bitteroot (Jan 5, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Comeon over....The freezer is full, just had a load of good firewood delivered, and have plenty of lump to cook with




bring the freezer too...... and beer....


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> I've got a bigger man cave....with cable....  Better yet.. bring the ox with ya...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> I've got a bigger man cave....with cable.... Better yet.. bring the ox with ya...


 


Bitteroot said:


> bring the freezer too...... and beer....


 
I do like the way you think Bitter..


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## spotman (Jan 5, 2011)

These are times when I wish I could buy 5-gallon jugs of milk and giant loaves of bread..I could sit by the window watching  the snow fall drinking milk and eating bread without having to worry about running low


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

spotman said:


> These are times when I wish I could buy 5-gallon jugs of milk and giant loaves of bread..I could sit by the window watching the snow fall drinking milk and eating bread without having to worry about running low


 
I'm already stocked up in the food area, cept it's beer and tortilla chips with a couple of gallons of salsa. It achieves better results; A) you get to the point where you don't care what it's doing outside, and B) it keeps your septic tank active...


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## K80 (Jan 5, 2011)

The gas company is supposed to have my tank topped off by the end of the week.


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## Paymaster (Jan 5, 2011)

K80 said:


> The gas company is supposed to have my tank topped off by the end of the week.



Guess I should go out and check mine!


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## FlyDawg72 (Jan 5, 2011)

Rumor passing through our building stemming from the upstairs goofball...

"Hey... have you guys heard... it might SNOW again!!!!! ...only a light dusting though..."

I take a deep breath in anticipation of clarifying the weather situation based on the DDD info ... then good sense hit me and i kept my mouth shut politely saying thank you for the NEWS FLASH.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

FlyDawg72 said:


> Rumor passing through our building stemming from the upstairs goofball...
> 
> "Hey... have you guys heard... it might SNOW again!!!!! ...only a light dusting though..."
> 
> I take a deep breath in anticipation of clarifying the weather situation based on the DDD info ... then good sense hit me and i kept my mouth shut politely saying thank you for the NEWS. *FLASH!!!*.


 
Fixed it for ya'..


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## jsullivan03 (Jan 5, 2011)

Lookin' like this could be a good one.


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## FlyDawg72 (Jan 5, 2011)

LOL, yes thanks Miguel ... such is life in my office. Just for amusement I call various victims on their direct phone extension, and then ask them what their extension number is. I can literally hear their mental record skipping as they think about what I just asked them, and then tell me their extension number ... clueless. FLASH indeed.


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## Spanky916 (Jan 5, 2011)

Hmmm if this continues to shape up this way Monday and Tuesday are gonna be very interesting at work.


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

Boy Miguel will not be happy about the latest run on the GFS...drops the ice right on top of him I believe.  Not too good at reading soundings so maybe someone with more knowledge can elaborate on that part of it


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## BBQBOSS (Jan 5, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> bring the freezer too...... and beer....





bigox911 said:


>





Miguel Cervantes said:


> I do like the way you think Bitter..



Can i come to?  I have a bigger stump and a freezer full of meat.   Oh yeah , i will bring frozen mason jars with very cold liquid in them.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Boy Miguel will not be happy about the latest run on the GFS...drops the ice right on top of him I believe.  Not too good at reading soundings so maybe someone with more knowledge can elaborate on that part of it



If that is the case then the ice won't get this far down to the central GA area?


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## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Can i come to?  I have a bigger stump and a freezer full of meat.   Oh yeah , i will bring frozen mason jars with very cold liquid in them.



I like  can't be a bad thing if the jar is froze but the liquid aint


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> I like  can't be a bad thing if the jar is froze but the liquid aint


 
It's lookin better and better for a week in Sugar Valley...


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## GA DAWG (Jan 5, 2011)

Hey DDD, How much snow IMBY?


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## Jeff Raines (Jan 5, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> Hey DDD, How much snow IMBY?



Besides me,how many thought IMBY was a new weather model.Took me a few minutes to figure it out


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## doenightmare (Jan 5, 2011)

GB on WSB is on board with the Euro. He said it nailed the Christmas Day snow and predicted snow Sunday night into Tuesday. Despite DDD's prior avatar assault on the man - I like him. As far as the TV hacks go - he is the best (Dagmars a close 2nd).


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## GA DAWG (Jan 5, 2011)

Jeff Raines said:


> Besides me,how many thought IMBY was a new weather model.Took me a few minutes to figure it out


 I had to think about it a min..I though,what in the  is he talking about..


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

doenightmare said:


> GB on WSB is on board with the Euro. He said it nailed the Christmas Day snow and predicted snow Sunday night into Tuesday. Despite DDD's prior avatar assault on the man - I like him. As far as the TV hacks go - he is the best (Dagmars a close 2nd).


 
Pinko Commie Heathen Dagmar is #1, regardless of where she is right now. In fact, if she were my IMBY model y'all would never see me again...


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## Bnathanb1982 (Jan 5, 2011)

*Lol*



Jeff Raines said:


> Besides me,how many thought IMBY was a new weather model.Took me a few minutes to figure it out



Yeah for those that follow the weather on americanwx.com and other forums, somebody asking how much in my backyard will get kicked off the forum.  They will put you in timeout.  Of course they are pretty serious over there, but I can see why.  Most of the time DDD or whoever will post potential amounts for a particular region and then you get 100 how much "imby" without reading the posts before that answers your question.


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## Bnathanb1982 (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pinko Commie Heathen Dagmar is #1, regardless of where she is right now. In fact, if she were my IMBY model y'all would never see me again...



We would know to look in the backyard to find you though


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## Money man (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pinko Commie Heathen Dagmar is #1, regardless of where she is right now. In fact, if she were my IMBY model y'all would never see me again...



She is recently single.


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## kgo (Jan 5, 2011)

K80 said:


> The gas company is supposed to have my tank topped off by the end of the week.





Paymaster said:


> Guess I should go out and check mine!


Oh no they said the S word agian It will be hades at work rest of the week and all weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

Good lord. The 00Z GFS has it even deeper south than it was before. The good news is, that will eliminate the icy stuff for us and move it down south. At this point I will be highly disappointed if they all of the sudden back way off of these forecast at the 11th hour. I can't imagine it would happen, this has been 2 solid weeks developing.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Good lord. The 00Z GFS has it even deeper south than it was before. The good news is, that will eliminate the icy stuff for us and move it down south. At this point I will be highly disappointed if they all of the sudden back way off of these forecast at the 11th hour. I can't imagine it would happen, this has been 2 solid weeks developing.



Post up some models or something??


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

Pretty Crazy!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)




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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

If I am reading that right that freezing line is pretty far south now?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> If I am reading that right that freezing line is pretty far south now?


 Yup.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

So that is a good thing for us down this way?  Has it been fairly consistent?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)




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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

Here's a very cool N. Hemisphere animation showing the pattern circulation from right before Christmas to the coming week.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html


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## Bnathanb1982 (Jan 5, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


>



You know the saying, this post is useless without pictures? Well THIS post is useless without an explanation of what we are looking at.  At least it is for me


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## Limb Walker (Jan 5, 2011)

Bnathanb1982 said:


> You know the saying, this post is useless without pictures? Well THIS post is useless without an explanation of what we are looking at.  At least it is for me



Yep...



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a very cool N. Hemisphere animation showing the pattern circulation from right before Christmas to the coming week.
> 
> http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html



Looks like an active petri dish....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

It's basically saying there will be plenty of cold air and plenty of moisture in the same place at the same time. Incidentally, those maps are old model runs from earlier in the day, when the freezing line was further north.


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## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Jan 5, 2011)

Limb Walker said:


> Yep...
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like an active petri dish....



He never was any good in Science Class!


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## savreds (Jan 5, 2011)

All y'all north GA folks need to quit hogging up all snow and let us have some down here in the southern part of the state.   
















And y'all can keep the ice too!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2011)

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> He never was any good in Science Class!


 
That wuz the onli clas I liked. I hated inglich and arith,,,urith,,,,,,umm,,,,,,math.


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## krisjack (Jan 5, 2011)

I wish it would snow 6 inches down here.Weather channel has updated there 10 day forcast.Its calling for rain then snow showers during the night.I dont want it to snow at night.I want it to snow during the daylight.


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## DDD (Jan 5, 2011)

So I have been away from the computer for about 6-7 hours and I am catching up.

One thing I can tell you is that the latest NAM model out (just now) looks just like the EURO.  

If GB is going with the EURO and it holds serve tonight, then expect him to set off the grocery alarms tomorrow.

The latest run of the GFS throws an ice storm in here rather than snow.  I don't care what it says from run to run, the cold air is going to be here and so is the moisture.  Not going to get to worked up over precip type yet.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 5, 2011)

Does that mean the snow line is going to be north of you all and just a cold rain down here?


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## DDD (Jan 5, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Does that mean the snow line is going to be north of you all and just a cold rain down here?



GFS verbatim would be a horrific ice storm here and cold rain there, but I am telling you, I look for the GFS to follow the EURO.  I am not worried a bit.

I also would not be surprised for the models to lose this storm tonight or tomorrow... they do it every time and then it comes back to us.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 5, 2011)

Macon channel 13 weather just said Sunday night should be interesting!!


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## Fro1911nut (Jan 5, 2011)

Wow Glen just about pushed the panic button!


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## DDD (Jan 5, 2011)

What the GFS just spit out is a night mare.

Anyone from Macon up to Athens and points northward want to see what 1.5" of freezing rain looks like?   Folks, this would be one system I would be pulling hard for 33 and raining, because the ice storm of '73 would not hold a candle to it.  

Unreal.


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## GA DAWG (Jan 5, 2011)

I sure dont want Ice. I dont have heat if the power aint on. Our power is usually the first to go out. Even in just wind.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 5, 2011)

DDD said:


> What the GFS just spit out is a night mare.
> 
> Anyone from Macon up to Athens and points northward want to see what 1.5" of freezing rain looks like?   Folks, this would be one system I would be pulling hard for 33 and raining, because the ice storm of '73 would not hold a candle to it.
> 
> Unreal.


33, and rain please!!


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## slip (Jan 5, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> I sure dont want Ice. I dont have heat if the power aint on. Our power is usually the first to go out. Even in just wind.



same here...


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## SnowHunter (Jan 5, 2011)

DDD said:


> What the GFS just spit out is a night mare.
> 
> Anyone from Macon up to Athens and points northward want to see what 1.5" of freezing rain looks like?   Folks, this would be one system I would be pulling hard for 33 and raining, because the ice storm of '73 would not hold a candle to it.
> 
> Unreal.





Yall can come up here... bring campers and jugs of water.... we'll have heat and generator power


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## Fro1911nut (Jan 5, 2011)

Them Bama boys are getting onboard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
755 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-070000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
755 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SELMA TO ROCKFORD TO
WEDOWEE LINE. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$


CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND TODAY`S SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. STILL WATCHING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
EVENING.  MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.  THE QUIRKY PART...I KNOW
MODELS ARE NOT SPITTING OUT QPF IN THIS AREA...BUT THEY DON`T NEED
TO. AS LONG AS THERE IS ELEVATED RH VALUES IN THIS AREA...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PRESENT SOME LARGE SCALE
FORCING TO GET SOME FLAKES TO FALL. WILL HAVE TO SEE...BUT AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.  MODELS SEEM TO
BE COMING TOGETHER...A LITTLE.  THE 12Z GFS HAS A GULF LOW AGAIN...
BUT NOW ITS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND THERE
WOULDN`T BE ANY MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH.  THE 12Z EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAS THE MOISTURE...AND HAS THE COLD...AND HAS THE
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE
WAY OF SNOW THAT WE HAVE SEEN. IF THE 12Z EURO TODAY VERIFIED...4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME PART OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY. YES I SAID SNOW. NOW I`M NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO
THAT MUCH SNOW JUST YET...BUT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SAYING...EXPECT TO
SEE SOME TYPE AND SOME AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. SO WILL RUN WITH THIS CONSIDERATION OF
RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS...AND ADD THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.

IN FACT...NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD CONTINUE TO SEE FLAKES AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE WHITE STUFF.

THE CONCERN IS STILL LOOMING FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK...AS THE
EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS EXTREMELY COLD CP AIR MASS TRYING TO
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN HERE.  JUST SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 5, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> I sure dont want Ice. I dont have heat if the power aint on. Our power is usually the first to go out. Even in just wind.


We will have heat!!...........Just no water!!..........Wells run on electricity!!..........Time to bottle up some just in case!!


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## krisjack (Jan 5, 2011)

Another shot for snow is next friday as well.So the week is gonna be interesting to see what this week will bring.


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## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> What the GFS just spit out is a night mare.
> 
> Anyone from Macon up to Athens and points northward want to see what 1.5" of freezing rain looks like?   Folks, this would be one system I would be pulling hard for 33 and raining, because the ice storm of '73 would not hold a candle to it.
> 
> Unreal.



how about 33 and snow heck with  the rain


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> What the GFS just spit out is a night mare.
> 
> Anyone from Macon up to Athens and points northward want to see what 1.5" of freezing rain looks like? Folks, this would be one system I would be pulling hard for 33 and raining, because the ice storm of '73 would not hold a candle to it.
> 
> Unreal.


 
Shut yo' mouth Willis. I don't even want to consider such and event. 

On the flip side, I tried to watch a local station this morning. You know, one without a met. with terminal nasal problems. WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THESE FOLKS DOING??? "We ask the tough question" Huh?? What??? No you don't!!! and this one really miffed me. "Whizometer"???? What the, huh, wha??? Sounds like an instrument my urologist might use to measure bladder flow...Are these idiots serious???


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## Robbie101 (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Shut yo' mouth Willis. I don't even want to consider such and event.
> 
> On the flip side, I tried to watch a local station this morning. You know, one without a met. with terminal nasal problems. WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THESE FOLKS DOING??? "We ask the tough question" Huh?? What??? No you don't!!! and this one really miffed me. "Whizometer"???? What the, huh, wha??? Sounds like an instrument my urologist might use to measure bladder flow...Are these idiots serious???




Don't you need your breakfast plate sir??? I'll get it ready for ya!!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Robbie101 said:


> Don't you need your breakfast plate sir??? I'll get it ready for ya!!!!


 
I'll be there about 8, right after I drop the boy off at school..


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## BBQBOSS (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Shut yo' mouth Willis. I don't even want to consider such and event.
> 
> On the flip side, I tried to watch a local station this morning. You know, one without a met. with terminal nasal problems. WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THESE FOLKS DOING??? "We ask the tough question" Huh?? What??? No you don't!!! and this one really miffed me. "Whizometer"???? What the, huh, wha??? Sounds like an instrument my urologist might use to measure bladder flow...Are these idiots serious???



Yeah i saw the whizometer for the first time over the holidays and i was like you.  Couldnt do nothing but laugh.  jacklegs...


Well if all this crap does happen, I have plenty of kerosene, firewood, meat and charcoal.  I think we will be ok at the Allen household.


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## Spanky916 (Jan 6, 2011)

Robbie101 said:


> Don't you need your breakfast plate sir??? I'll get it ready for ya!!!!



Why sure. On our way, see ya in a minute.


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## Robbie101 (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll be there about 8, right after I drop the boy off at school..



Aight bud, see ya then.....


Spanky, I was hoping you guys were hungry!!!!!


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## LIGHTNING (Jan 6, 2011)




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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Alright DDD, confirm what I'm lookin at. Current GFS has freezing rain etc. moving into our area at 0100 Tues morn. Yesterday's run had it at snow moving in at 1600 Tues afternoon. Any other models on board with this garbage??


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## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Alright DDD, confirm what I'm lookin at. Current GFS has freezing rain etc. moving into our area at 0100 Tues morn. Yesterday's run had it at snow moving in at 1600 Tues afternoon. Any other models on board with this garbage??



what happen to Sunday to Monday?has this thing slowed down that much?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> what happen to Sunday to Monday?has this thing slowed down that much?


 
That's the weird thing about this system. It looks like today and tomorrows moisture is going to flash through here, then nothing for a couple of days, then BOOM!!! But that is only what the GFS is showing. I'm still not sold on the inconsistancy of modelling this event. I need more congruency among the model maps to feel confident of what is exactly going ot happen. 

Perhaps DDD or BigOx would be kind enough to post up side by side comparisons to the three different models.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

They should rename the PTC NWS the "Captain Cautious Gang of Cavalier Attitudes" Could the be more reserved in their interpretation of the data???

*Hazardous Weather Outlook*


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA513 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-071015-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-WILKINSON-513 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SEE UP TO A HALFINCH OF SNOW TONIGHT..SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AWEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO EXTREME NORTHGEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEAFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FORMORE INFORMATION ON THE SNOW...SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..*DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYTHERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONSOF NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAINAND SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUINGTHROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW COULDACCUMULATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA DURING THIS PERIOD.*.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.</PRE>


----------



## Robbie101 (Jan 6, 2011)

Spanky916 said:


> Why sure. On our way, see ya in a minute.




Yall went to Ihop didn't ya?????


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Jan 6, 2011)

Robbie101 said:


> Yall went to Ihop didn't ya?????



I am thinking Waffling House the way the models keep changing.


----------



## Robbie101 (Jan 6, 2011)

gobbleinwoods said:


> I am thinking Waffling House the way the models keep changing.



I heard that!!!!


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 6, 2011)




----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

Must have update....


----------



## Sargent (Jan 6, 2011)

I already have a dozen loaves of bread and I just put a down payment on a cow. 

Sitting here waiting...


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

Latest GFS: Subtract 5 hrs. from UTC to get EST

Shows from 7pm Sunday Evening Through Midnight Monday.  By Monday at Midnight it is showing 3"+ from about Macon north.  I'm not a weather person though.  Need update from DDD


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 6, 2011)

....ooooooo..... pretty colors....

It appears we have a WHOLE LOT of something (yet to be determined) headed our way.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Alright so here's my latest thinking.

Based on the latest NAM, last night's EURO and the 6z GFS... 

There is no doubt in my mind that anything north of Perry is going to be frozen, it's just a matter of what kind of Precip and how much.
The GFS shows 2-4" of snow from the Mountains to Perry for the onset of the event, then a warm layer intrudes the upper atmospher, surface temps are WELL below freezing and the rain that falls turns into ICE on contact.  No run off, no contact melting, ICE.  I personally do not buy this scenario.  I think the evaporative cooling, heavy moisture and dynamics will keep this all snow with MAYBE light ice on the back side, now this is just looking at the GFS.

The EURO last night moved towards the GFS but not a lot.  It has more snow than ice for the entire event.

The NAM this morning (it only goes out 84 hours) is actually depicting what I think is going to happen.  The system becomes Negatively tilted right at the 84 hour (I will try and make a map that shows this so it makes sense) but Negative tilt means it is opening up the flood gates from the gulf of Mexico and sending one heck of a moisture flume northward.  Soundings give Dallas 2.0" of liquid.  I think this is what we are in store for.  When the GOM opens up for business, it sends lots of moisture and with that warm air.  I think this is what the GFS is picking up on, but I think the cold air that is being ushered in tonight and tomorrow is going to superseed the heat brought by the moisture out of the gulf.

Next GFS will be out in about 45 minutes.

My thinking is this, If you live in the mountains down to Perry... draw two horizontal lines running East and West.  If you live in that region you need to prepare now for what could be a massive ice storm OR Snow turning over to ICE.  If I lived from say Perry to Macon all points east and west of that area I would be deciding now what I was going to do if I had to go without power for 3-5 days.  This system has the potential to be a crippling ice storm like we have never seen.  Wherever the snow flies south of that area is going to be ice.  There is no doubt in my mind about that.  The problem is, it is way to early to say where.

I do believe the local stations will mash the panic button Friday and for sure on Saturday.  This looks to be starting around the afternoon hours of Sunday.

I will try and get some maps together, but I will hold off posting those until tonight when I hope to have better confidence is what is going to happen.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Also of note is the massive Frigid cold that comes right in behind the system.  I don't see us getting above Freezing until Friday of next week once the system exits on Tuesday.  I mean seriously, schools could be closed for a week.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 6, 2011)

My boss just called and wanted us to go on a hunting trip Monday and Tuesday. . . I told him that I was pretty sure we didn't want to be driving anywhere or sitting in a tree in the weather that is coming.  He acted like I was crazy because he hasn't heard anything about a crippling storm headed this way.  I sure hope something can happen and have this be snow instead of ice.  I hate that stuff.


----------



## OutFishHim (Jan 6, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> My boss just called and wanted us to go on a hunting trip Monday and Tuesday. . . I told him that I was pretty sure we didn't want to be driving anywhere or sitting in a tree in the weather that is coming.  He acted like I was crazy because he hasn't heard anything about a crippling storm headed this way.  I sure hope something can happen and have this be snow instead of ice.  I hate that stuff.



That's not fair!!  I want a boss who will take me hunting!!!


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

For anyone wondering what he's talking about on the "negatively" tilted trough, hope this will help.

Here is the upper level air charts of the 12z NAM at 66 hours out.  The trough that is going to help us with our winter weather is what is circled in red.  The axis of that trough is highlighted with the green line.  In this picture the trough is positively tilted.  







Ok...out to 84 hours...the trough has now become negatively tilted.  Basically the negatively tilted trough indicates strong low pressure and is what really can generate the winter weather for us.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> For anyone wondering what he's talking about on the "negatively" tilted trough, hope this will help.
> 
> Here is the upper level air charts of the 12z NAM at 66 hours out.  The trough that is going to help us with our winter weather is what is circled in red.  The axis of that trough is highlighted with the green line.  In this picture the trough is positively tilted.
> 
> ...


Thanks, bigox, I actually understand this!!    You CAN teach an old dog new tricks!!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

What kind of time frame are we looking at in GA?  Early hours Monday start and Tuesday end?


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> What kind of time frame are we looking at in GA?  Early hours Monday start and Tuesday end?



Yes, early Tuesday ending.  Just to possibly have another storm hit Friday.

Can you imagine snow being on the ground in the northern 1/2 of georgia just to have more pile on days later?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Robbie101 said:


> Yall went to Ihop didn't ya?????


 
Now you know better than that. Thanks for the biscuits n gravy. Good stuff right there now.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yes, early Tuesday ending.  Just to possibly have another storm hit Friday.
> 
> Can you imagine snow being on the ground in the northern 1/2 of georgia just to have more pile on days later?



Good god man!!!!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yes, early Tuesday ending.  Just to possibly have another storm hit Friday.
> 
> Can you imagine snow being on the ground in the northern 1/2 of georgia just to have more pile on days later?



I can't imagine the moisture amounts falling as frozen stuff that some of these models show.  I also can't imagine it falling for as long as predicted.  This is getting really exciting for us Atlanta folks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

OutFishHim said:


> That's not fair!! I want a boss who will take me hunting!!!


Wanna go hunting??


----------



## jsullivan03 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yes, early Tuesday ending.  Just to possibly have another storm hit Friday.
> 
> Can you imagine snow being on the ground in the northern 1/2 of georgia just to have more pile on days later?



  You mean I may have to live off of milk sammiches for a week or more!?!?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

The early Jet Stream pulls that low right up into us, the turns zonal by Tuesday speeding up it's exit off of the east coast.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> For anyone wondering what he's talking about on the "negatively" tilted trough, hope this will help.
> 
> Here is the upper level air charts of the 12z NAM at 66 hours out.  The trough that is going to help us with our winter weather is what is circled in red.  The axis of that trough is highlighted with the green line.  In this picture the trough is positively tilted.
> 
> ...



Thanks dude.  Didn't have time to post it.  She is leaned wayyyy back at 84.  I love it.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 6, 2011)

If this seriously happened, what kinds of things would one need to get to prepare for this?  I don’t want to jump the gun but I do want to be prepared.  I have a two year old too.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> If this seriously happened, what kinds of things would one need to get to prepare for this?  I don’t want to jump the gun but I do want to be prepared.  I have a two year old too.



Two words...

BREAD

MILK


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 6, 2011)

TWC has us under a special weather statement for tonight..Whats that all about?


----------



## Keebs (Jan 6, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> If this seriously happened, what kinds of things would one need to get to prepare for this?  I don’t want to jump the gun but I do want to be prepared.  I have a two year old too.


Alternative heat source, generator if possible, water, blankets, think camping......... just at the house.


----------



## jsullivan03 (Jan 6, 2011)

Keebs said:


> Alternative heat source, generator if possible, water, blankets, think camping......... just at the house.



Don't forget the beer and whiskey!


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Latest GFS looks to me like 5-8 Inches from Griffin Northward.

From Perry to Griffin, 2-4 inches change over at some point to freezing rain.

It's a big hit in Alabama and Georgia for sure.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

For those of you that lived in GA in 1982, it is a carbon copy.


----------



## spotman (Jan 6, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> If this seriously happened, what kinds of things would one need to get to prepare for this?  I don’t want to jump the gun but I do want to be prepared.  I have a two year old too.


 Had to work during Ice storm once. It seems that tress could handle about 1/4 inch but when it got up to around 1/2 inch it was on.  We had trees and powerlines down everywhere. I can't imagine 2" of snow then Ice on top of that. Depending on your area probably power outages 3+days if not more


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 6, 2011)

Are surface temps gonna work in our favor this time???


----------



## Keebs (Jan 6, 2011)

jsullivan03 said:


> Don't forget the beer and whiskey!


Of course, the "medicinal" kind!!


----------



## jsullivan03 (Jan 6, 2011)

jsullivan03 said:


> Don't forget the beer and whiskey!





Keebs said:


> Of course, the "medicinal" kind!!



I use it as my "alternative heat source"


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 6, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> TWC has us under a special weather statement for tonight..Whats that all about?


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 6, 2011)

Issued by The National Weather Service
Atlanta, GA
3:41 am EST, Thu., Jan. 6, 2011

... CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO COMMERCE LINE MAY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS RECEIVING A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... THIS MAY CERTAINLY CREATE SLICK AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING


----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 6, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> Two words...
> 
> BREAD
> 
> MILK



Don't forget to have a little extra cash on hand. ATM's will be down if the power is out.


----------



## huntindawg (Jan 6, 2011)

Hey DDD, i know you said no INYB questions, but I'm a GA boy living in Charlotte now and I can't tell a dang thing from those purty maps....are we gonna get anything over this way?


----------



## brandon (Jan 6, 2011)

huntindawg said:


> Hey DDD, i know you said no INYB questions, but I'm a GA boy living in Charlotte now and I can't tell a dang thing from those purty maps....are we gonna get anything over this way?


Yes.


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 6, 2011)

Brandon said:


> Yes.





yankee...


----------



## huntindawg (Jan 6, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> yankee...



Hahahaa....


----------



## huntindawg (Jan 6, 2011)

Brandon said:


> Yes.



So you can read them purty maps?


----------



## 25.06 (Jan 6, 2011)

Anyone heard about the very cold air next weekend. The coldest it's been in many years.


----------



## Brian Groce (Jan 6, 2011)

Somebody call 911!  DDD is gonna need oxygen by Staurday


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

It appears to me that anything above highway 84 will be either freezing rain or snow.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

25.06 said:


> Anyone heard about the very cold air next weekend. The coldest it's been in many years.



Some of the models are going crazy with how much cold they're showing...like negative teens for lows in Atlanta...but even if it's positive single digits for lows it's gonna be real cold...like hykhyw cold.


----------



## jsullivan03 (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> it's gonna be real cold...like hykhyw cold.


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Some of the models are going crazy with how much cold they're showing...like negative teens for lows in Atlanta...but even if it's positive single digits for lows it's gonna be real cold...like hygfhywgf cold.



there we go....


----------



## Strych9 (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Some of the models are going crazy with how much cold they're showing...like negative teens for lows in Atlanta...but even if it's positive single digits for lows it's gonna be real cold...like hykhyw cold.



I don't like the sound of that


----------



## marknga (Jan 6, 2011)

Some snow to play in would be cool, but that kind of crippling cold??
If I wanted that I'd move to Chicago or something. Let's hope it dosen't get down to subzero.

At this rate we could be on Winter Weather Thread IV by the end of the week.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Some of the models are going crazy with how much cold they're showing...like negative teens for lows in Atlanta...but even if it's positive single digits for lows it's gonna be real cold...like hykhyw cold.



I had to look it up!


----------



## spotman (Jan 6, 2011)

First white christmas  now another big snow event coming what's going on wonder if all those dead black birds knew anything about all of this


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 6, 2011)

id like to experience -15 with a 20-30mph wind for once in my lifetime.  Im sure i would be over it in about 2 nanoseconds.


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 6, 2011)

...so what you're saying is... I should go ahead and bring the plants in, and get the windbreaker out?


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> Are surface temps gonna work in our favor this time???



Surface temps are going to be in the 20's.  We might and I stresss MIGHT get above freezing for a few hours on Tuesday but then its going to dive off and not go above freezing until Friday.



huntindawg said:


> Hey DDD, i know you said no INYB questions, but I'm a GA boy living in Charlotte now and I can't tell a dang thing from those purty maps....are we gonna get anything over this way?




Charlotte is sorta a question mark depending on what model you look at, as this system moves East it gets dampened out a little.  The system that is rolling through tomorrow is going to Exit off the NE Coast.  Charlotte needs that thing to exit quick and not zap the moisture.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

The other thing that helps every drop of this moisture be of the freezing kind is that most of it is falling after dark.  Snow ratios are usually higher at night 15:1, due to no sun and no heating of the atmosphere.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 6, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> I had to look it up!



I may have mispelled it


----------



## bam_bam (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Some of the models are going crazy with how much cold they're showing...like negative teens for lows in Atlanta...but even if it's positive single digits for lows it's gonna be real cold...like hykhyw cold.



When is this suppose to be happening? I am in South Ga but it is still going to get cold down here if it is negatives in Atl.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

They haven't said anything on the news about this storm down here.I guess there waiting til its too late.It may not get that bad down here tho being from south ga.


----------



## Cowdog07 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD, 
How cold are we talking about for the week after this week? seen near O and negative digits on one map.  Thanks for what you do!


----------



## Money man (Jan 6, 2011)

Jeff C. said:


> I may have mispelled it



HYKHYW

Hide yo kids hide yo wife 

r&tt, r&tt, r&tt HB, HB, H, H, HB

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hMtZfW2z9dw?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hMtZfW2z9dw?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

Now that's cold...but not in my backyard.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Cowdog07 said:


> DDD,
> How cold are we talking about for the week after this week? seen near O and negative digits on one map.  Thanks for what you do!



Wed and Thursday N. GA would be looking at teens and single digits possibly for lows.  Mountains would be in the single digits.  

South of Griffin would be looking at low teens for lows.  Highs will not get out of the 20's.  

It's gonna be a freezer.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

EURO is very similar to the GFS, the thing I do like out of this run is it is almost all snow for the northern 2/3 of Georgia from about Macon Northward.

I do not like the warm air aloft and high 20's surface temps over the Perry north area.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO is very similar to the GFS, the thing I do like out of this run is it is almost all snow for the northern 2/3 of Georgia from about Macon Northward.
> 
> I do not like the warm air aloft and high 20's surface temps over the Perry north area.



What kind of qpf amounts did the EURO spit out on this latest run for GA?


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

So it looks as tho that Leesburg/Albany ga area will be spared of the snow/freezing rain.Most of the bad stuff will be north of Macon?


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

5-8 inches of snow by the EURO for Birmingham, ATL, Athens, Augusta, Macon, Columbia s.c....  big hit.  Maybe 10" depending on snow rates.

Perry North looks to me like 2-3" of snow at the onset turning over to freezing rain and a complete mess.  The best thing you might hope for is sleet rather than freezing rain.  Sleet will not bring the power lines down like the freezing rain will.

Big shot of cold air... just super cold air Tuesday night through Friday with another weaker system moving out of the gulf on Friday and adding more snow to the snow that will be on the ground from the Sun - Tuesday storm.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

Money man said:


> HYKHYW
> 
> Hide yo kids hide yo wife
> 
> ...


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

I am 72 miles southwest of perry ga.Do you have a updated .pdf map  of the snow totals that you posted on the other thread DDD.1/19/11 will be very cold.-10 - -15 C in northern ga and -5 - -10 in southern ga.


----------



## K80 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD, how come places like weather.com has mid 30's-40's next week?  Is the cold temps for next week something that is just now showing up in the models or are they just waiting to report on the cold temps so they don't have egg on their face in the rare case that it warms up during the day?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

Lower snow ratios like 5:1 meaning wet heavy snow would really cripple the roads with the temp going in the teens immediately afterwards.  It would just be solid ice everywhere.


----------



## AM1 (Jan 6, 2011)

I'm in Ellijay, 80 miles north of Atlanta. can we expect snow and ice here or just heavy snow?


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

K80 said:


> DDD, how come places like weather.com has mid 30's-40's next week?  Is the cold temps for next week something that is just now showing up in the models or are they just waiting to report on the cold temps so they don't have egg on their face in the rare case that it warms up during the day?



x2, was wondering the exact same thing.  All outlets, weather.com, accuweather, weatherunderground, weatherbug, and local outlets are reporting much higher temps.  Seems like they would be on board with this by now but everyone of them just say winter mix, maybe flurries.


----------



## Spanky916 (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Now you know better than that. Thanks for the biscuits n gravy. Good stuff right there now.



Wasn't my choice. The boss picked this morning. I was craving a sausage gravy biscuit myself. Sorry I missed you.


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 6, 2011)

AM1 said:


> I'm in Ellijay, 80 miles north of Atlanta. can we expect snow and ice here or just heavy snow?



I would guess you'll have a BIG BATCH of NO BUENO! aaaaaallllllllll over your yard Monday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Spanky916 said:


> Wasn't my choice. The boss picked this morning. I was craving a sausage gravy biscuit myself. Sorry I missed you.


Then you've got my back if an eat more chikin cow shows up in front of the station one morning. Right?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

K80 said:


> DDD, how come places like weather.com has mid 30's-40's next week?  Is the cold temps for next week something that is just now showing up in the models or are they just waiting to report on the cold temps so they don't have egg on their face in the rare case that it warms up during the day?



It isn't uncommon for them to ignore the effects of evaporative cooling from frozen precip on the ground.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

krisjack said:


> So it looks as tho that Leesburg/Albany ga area will be spared of the snow/freezing rain.Most of the bad stuff will be north of Macon?



I would not call that quite yet.

I will be interested to read the ATL NWS discussion today.  The models are all in agreement, not really sure how they skirt around this one, unless they just really want to stick their head in the sand.

Albany could very well be in the freezing rain line.  When this system actually gets on land tomorrow and we get some good sampling for the models, then we should be able to hone in on the problem spots.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 6, 2011)

Money man said:


> HYKHYW
> 
> Hide yo kids hide yo wife
> 
> ...



HYKHYW would apply to what I found also....like I said I may have mispelled it though


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> x2, was wondering the exact same thing.  All outlets, weather.com, accuweather, weatherunderground, weatherbug, and local outlets are reporting much higher temps.  Seems like they would be on board with this by now but everyone of them just say winter mix, maybe flurries.



Because, they only update their long range temps about once a day.  You stick with weather.com and see how they are just like the local yocals... it will be Sunday before they tell everyone the temps are going in the tank.

Plus, models have a tendency to overdue high temps but rarely do they mess up on low temps.  For some reason they put 41-44° out there.  I laugh all the time at it... I wish i had a nickle everytime I have looked at those graphics and said, if it gets to 32 I will be surprised and they will hang on to 43° until 24 hours away and then be like... ohhh... its going to get cooooollldddd.  LOL

I ask myself how they call for heavy snow with their graphics and put 44 for a high?


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 6, 2011)

AM1 said:


> I'm in Ellijay, 80 miles north of Atlanta. can we expect snow and ice here or just heavy snow?



YES!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

I saw this map on another site.  Now that's a joke.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 6, 2011)

From reading Kirk's blog, looks like he wants to wait until the storm reaches landfall, before sounding his alarm!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> I saw this map on another site.  Now that's a joke.



It is no secret that Accuweather loves the NE to get hammered with snow.  Their forecasters have admitted openly that they bias their forecast to the NE.

One was even quoted as saying, "It never really gets cold enough south of Virginia for REAL snow events."

That map is garbage. 

They have taken the EURO at face value, except they slid it 250 miles North and East.  There is not one model I have looked at all day that has supported that trash.


----------



## Spanky916 (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Then you've got my back if an eat more chikin cow shows up in front of the station one morning. Right?



You bet!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> It is no secret that Accuweather loves the NE to get hammered with snow.  Their forecasters have admitted openly that they bias their forecast to the NE.
> 
> One was even quoted as saying, "It never really gets cold enough south of Virginia for REAL snow events."
> 
> ...




Yep.  I'm getting really excited for this one.  I think it's coming together and we are in the sweet spot.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 6, 2011)

My knee is still ringin!


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Greenville / Spartanburg NWS:



> GSP:
> 
> .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
> 
> ...


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

well maybe this one holds together.....


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

It's gonna be rain.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

So Allan Huffman is one of the METS in North Carolina that I really love to read and follow.  He is the real deal.  Much of what I pass onto you guys or bounce my ideas and thoughts on come from him.

This right up is excellent for those of you who really want to try and understand what all is taking place.  This is an EXCELLENT write up.

In general the 12z models have continued to show a significant winter storm across the southeast unfolding from Sunday through Tuesday. There are however important differences in the precipitation type and exactly how things will play out which I will try to expound on below.

However, I also wanted to mention that the 12z models are also showing the possibility of some light snow late Friday night and early Saturday morning which could add up to some light accumulations across the NC piedmont. A strong upper level impulse will move right across the state Friday night and this will be enough to generate some lift and some light precipitation. The 12z GFS and NAM show QPF amounts in the 0.1 to 0.25 inch range and the ECMWF is showing around 0.1 of an inch. The boundary layer will still be somewhat marginal, but it will likely be a shallower warm layer than we saw last night.  So I expect we will see more snow this time around and if the 0.1 to 0.25 inch amounts are realized there could be a good 0.5 inch to 1 inch amount along the I-40 corridor east of the mountains.

Now on to the bigger storm, first I want to try and explain synoptically what is driving this storm system. I have posted the 12z GFS 24 hour forecast of 500mb Heights and vorticity. There are 4 features I want to highlight.

1.The west based –NAO block centered over Nunavut is driving this abnormally cold and suppressed weather pattern. This block represented by the closed 552dm contour is helping to push the jet stream well south of where it normally is and is helping to push cold air from Canada into the US. This has been the main catalyst for our winter weather pattern so far.
2.A large closed 500mb low over the Great Lakes will move into the northeast US and then towards Newfoundland between now and Sunday evening. This system is helping to funnel in cold air from Canada and also helping to keep the southern stream system suppressed and taking a far south track.
3.A closed low is forecast to move ashore into southern California tomorrow. This will be the main catalyst for potential wintry weather across Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas. However, this upper feature will weaken as it moves east into confluent flow created by the large 500mb low near New England and Newfoundland. Therefore precipitation amounts associated with the southern stream system will lessen as you head east.
4.A s/w currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move ashore into British Columbia tomorrow evening and then dive down the Rockies over the weekend. This feature is important for those of us in the central and eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia, as this feature will be what helps to re-develop the surface low closer to the coast and create an area of lift over northwest of it over the Carolinas later Monday and Monday night. This is when areas like the Triangle will see their heaviest precipitation.
So as you can see there many players on the field that are influencing this system. The 12z models continue to show a scenario where the southern stream system thrown back a significant amount of moisture into areas from northeast Texas through north Georgia. With the cold high pressure in the northern plains pushing cold air south the northern parts of this will likely fall in the form of snow and/or ice from perhaps northeast Texas through Arkansas, Tennessee, and into northern MS/AL/GA.  As the northern stream energy dives in during the day Monday and Monday night, precipitation will blossom over NC/SC/NE Georgia/SE Virginia and this will be in the form of snow or ice. I think in general a broad swatch of 0.5 to 1 inch of liquid QPF will fall from MSS through the northern halves of GA/AL much of central and eastern TN/ and most of NC, SC, and southeast Va. The models will probably oscillate back and forth in that range with some areas possibly seeing more. Keep in mind model QPF is usually the aspect of weather that weather models struggle the most with, so in reality we will have to wait till the system starts to unfold to gauge whether they have a good handle on it or not.

As far as precipitation type, I think the areas I had outlined in the earlier discussion which I will repost here, still represent the areas I think have the best potential to see mostly snow and significant snow at that. There is the potential near the southern borders of this area and 50-100 miles south of this area to see ice and mixed precipitation.

We must also keep in mind that the two primary shortwaves in the Pacific will not be ashore and into the data network until tomorrow. Thus it will probably be the 00z and 6z models on Saturday before we start to feel really confident about the evolution of this storm.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

For those that just want to know what their chances are, here is Allan's long range call.


----------



## Brian Groce (Jan 6, 2011)

South 107 out of Rome has pushed the panic button.
"Crippling Snow Storm"


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

NWS IN ATL:

They just will not commit to sounding the alarm... give them until this time tomorrow.  They will pull the trigger then.



> FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...*ATTENTION WILL TURN
> TO STRONG SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
> COAST OF THE US. GIVEN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM MODELS FOR
> THE 12Z SUITE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A
> ...


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

Brian Groce said:


> South 107 out of Rome has pushed the panic button.
> "Crippling Snow Storm"



Probably because of what the Peachtree city NWS just put out.


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 6, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> Probably because of what the Peachtree city NWS just put out.



...OR... because they know DDD should be a MOD!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

Special weather statement
national weather service peachtree city ga
344 pm est thu jan 6 2011

gaz001>009-011>016-019>024-030>033-041-070845-
dade-walker-catoosa-whitfield-murray-fannin-gilmer-union-towns-
chattooga-gordon-pickens-dawson-lumpkin-white-floyd-bartow-
cherokee-forsyth-hall-banks-polk-paulding-cobb-north fulton-
haralson-
344 pm est thu jan 6 2011

...chance of light snow across north georgia tonight and friday...
...chance of accumulating snow again sunday night through tuesday...

For tonight and friday...a fast moving upper level disturbance
will sweep across the tennessee valley and southern appalachians
and bring a chance of light snow to parts of north georgia. This
system is relatively dry and snowfall amounts are expected to be
light. Areas generally north of a cedartown to commerce line may
see a light dusting of snow between midnight tonight and midday
friday. The higher elevations in north georgia have the greater
chance for accumulating snow... And could receive from 1 to 2
inches... Especially over parts of northeast georgia. Although
snowfall amounts are expected to be light... This could certainly
create numerous slick spots on roads...bridges and overpasses...
Resulting in dangerous driving conditions through the friday
morning commute. Motorists are urged to use extreme caution and
slow down.

For sunday night through tuesday... A low pressure system is
expected to develop over the northern gulf on sunday...then track
across south georgia and off the georgia coast through late
monday. This system will begin spreading moisture into the state
sunday afternoon and continue through at least early tuesday. At
this time... It appears temperature profiles would support the
precipitation falling mostly as snow across north and parts of central
georgia from sunday evening through monday night or early tuesday.
Widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible for areas
generally along and north of a la grange to monticello to washington
line... With greater amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible in the
higher elevations of north georgia. A wintry mix is more likely
for areas further south... With little or no accumulations expected
there. Anyone planning travel across north and central georgia
during the first half of next week should stay abreast to the
latest forecast on this potentially hazardous developing winter
weather system.

$$


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

The NAM just out is a kill shot from Macon to Atlanta.  Unreal the amount of moisture its showing.  I am getting chill bumps.  mmmmm mmmm...

Here are your temps.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Here is your moisture.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> The NAM just out is a kill shot from Macon to Atlanta.  Unreal the amount of moisture its showing.  I am getting chill bumps.  mmmmm mmmm...
> 
> Here are your temps.



come on hold together baby


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is your moisture.



And that is just the beginning right?


----------



## Smokepoler (Jan 6, 2011)

*Mine too!*



shakey gizzard said:


> My knee is still ringin!



Man, I 'm with you on that. I call it my Barometric Knee.
It has been killing me for 2 days!


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 6, 2011)

Man this is fun, gonna be a long weekend waiting on this thing to develop


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> For those that just want to know what their chances are, here is Allan's long range call.



UGH, I've been following here and americanwx.com and wanted DeKalb County in the snow. 

I know, I know, we are 36 out and a lot can change. Come on heavy snow....


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> And that is just the beginning right?



Yep... should be about 12-14 hours of snow.  Lets just hope its all snow.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

NWS worried about accumulating snow now for tonight...

Just the beginning my friends!

Alert: 
...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY DRY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO COMMERCE LINE MAY
SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MIDDAY
FRIDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH GEORGIA HAVE THE GREATER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW... AND COULD RECEIVE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES... ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... THIS COULD CERTAINLY
CREATE NUMEROUS SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND
SLOW DOWN.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON
LINE... WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. A WINTRY MIX IS MORE LIKELY
FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH... WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
THERE. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY ABREAST TO THE
LATEST FORECAST ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DEVELOPING WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD,what is the chance of this storm breaking down to a little of nothing?


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> Man this is fun, gonna be a long weekend waiting on this thing to develop



x2....


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 6, 2011)

X3....I hope it makes it to Augusta


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

This is what the 18z NAM is painting for Monday morning...and I don't believe the heart of the storm has gotten here yet


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> NWS worried about accumulating snow now for tonight...
> 
> .


 
It's nice to see that the PTC / NWS is beginning to get a clue, but they are still clinging to tightly to Tommy's Wedgie to let go of the fact that this may turn into a major event. Does Tommy work for the NWS now in PTC or something???


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> DDD,what is the chance of this storm breaking down to a little of nothing?



Well, honestly there is always that chance.  No doubt about it.

What the difference in this and the Christmas storm is, is that cold air is not a problem.  In the Christmas storm we needed upper level dynamics to converge.  Like drano and aluminum foil in a glass bottle if you know what I mean. 

This situation is much different.  Cold air is in place aloft and at the surface.  So all that is needed is moisture.

Could we lose some moisture which translates into less snow?  Absolutely.

Could we get an ENORMOSE amount of moisture and get cold air trapped at the surface and end up with an epic ice storm?  Absolutely.

Does it just disappear and go away?  I dont think so at this point.

I think it will just be a question of what kind of frozen precip and how much.  I will point out that every system since November has increased in the amount of moisture as the days grew closer to the event.

The FFC better get on their horse tomorrow and get people aware of what is looming in what will be 48 hours away come tomorrow.

This could seriously be an event where 3-5 days of viddles will need to be thought of.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's nice to see that the PTC / NWS is beginning to get a clue, but they are still clinging to tightly to Tommy's Wedgie to let go of the fact that this may turn into a major event. Does Tommy work for the NWS now in PTC or something???



They cling to every possible out.

What else cracks me up is them saying 1-2" possible.  There is not 1 model today that showed less than 4".

Swear they smoke crack.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 6, 2011)

Hey weather guru's - what does the z stand for in the 18z NAM map posted above?


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Greenwhich Mean Time or some call it Zulu time.


----------



## rjcruiser (Jan 6, 2011)

So...if the power goes out...how are we going to watch the National Championship game on Monday night?


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Jan 6, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> So...if the power goes out...how are we going to watch the National Championship game on Monday night?



Got a generator?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> DDD,what is the chance of this storm breaking down to a little of nothing?



Its going to rain....


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> So...if the power goes out...how are we going to watch the National Championship game on Monday night?



I hope every last Auburn fan loses power.  That will rock!  Probably a good thing LanierSpots is out there or he would have a melt down.


----------



## Atlsooner (Jan 6, 2011)

With this system coming in, and mother nature letting them know, there should be alot of deer movement BEFORE this thing hits.      I'm headed to Wrightsville to hunt, and I hope they are moving and getting their bellies full before the storm.


----------



## 25.06 (Jan 6, 2011)

Loft of bread- check
Gallon of milk- check
All sorts of alcohol- check
Propane tanks full- check
Ready for snow jam 2011- check.


----------



## rjcruiser (Jan 6, 2011)

threeleggedpigmy said:


> Got a generator?



Nope.  At least my power is underground and I'm inside city limits....just hope it stays on.  Can't wait to see Oregon smear that smile off of Cam's face.


----------



## higgy (Jan 6, 2011)

Keep it coming DDD some of us following your post might have to come out and work in all this. You know how folks drive in ga when the roads cover in that white stuff.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Its going to rain....



.....


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 6, 2011)

Glen is calling for Frez rain and snow...but nothing is going to happen here tonight


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> Glen is calling for Frez rain and snow...but nothing is going to happen here tonight



Is that in south GA or here??


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 6, 2011)

Here is Matthew East's thoughts......

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/


<object width="640" height="390"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0kkuUEcB6-Y&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0kkuUEcB6-Y&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></embed></object>




Thanks for the updates guys......


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

I believe that there should be a 4th winter weather thread for the 16th 17th storm later on in the week.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

We are still 3 days out on this one and I don't think this thread will make it.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

Glenn Burns just dropped the S bomb!

He said "more than likely nobody will want to be on the roads on Monday"

He also said you better go get your bread and milK


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Glenn Burns just dropped the S bomb!
> 
> He said "more than likely nobody will want to be on the roads on Monday"
> 
> He also said you better go get your bread and milK



I think Glenn is stalking DDD. That's just my dopinion.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD ... can't wait for the next GFS.  Tell us something good!


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

By the way, Thanks DDD for your expert advise. I don't even watch the weather anymore. I just come here. It's much more dependable.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

Here is the latest 6pm today GFS Model:

This is valid for Monday at 1pm.  Monday at 7pm shows even more snow.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Here is the latest 6pm today GFS Model:
> 
> This is valid for Monday at 1pm.  Monday at 7pm shows even more snow.



Everything at this point shows ATL as the sweet spot that I have seen.  I really hope the track doesn't change!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

i wish the sweet spot would move southward.


----------



## JD (Jan 6, 2011)

Looking like I will be staying in a hotel room on Windard Parkway  Sunday night with some coworkers so we can salt and clear parking lots and sidewalks of some of our clients early Monday morning. Well , atleast it should be a Hyatt or Marriot and we should be eating good.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 6, 2011)

yep, i hope it tracks right through Cherokee County!  Looking good for Woodstock according to these maps! 

filled all my propane, gas and kerosene tanks today.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

For the model above.....I don't like the 0.28" of Ice Pellets/Sleet for ATL.  That will be NASTY if it pans out.  

18Z GFS COBB output:

TUP - 5.8" snow, 0.04" IP, 0.01" ZR
TCL - 0.0" snow, 0.00" IP, 0.55" ZR
Monroe Co. MS, 6.8" snow, 0.00" IP, 0.01" ZR
HSV - 2.6" snow, 0.00" IP, 0.06" ZR
BHM - 3.4" snow, 0.89" IP, 0.33" ZR (it was nice knowing you BHM!)
ANB - 6.1" snow, 0.31" IP, 0.48" ZR (well, BHM will have company at least)
ATL - 6.4" snow, 0.28" IP, 0.17" ZR (it could be worse, you could be ANB!)


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> For the model above.....I don't like the 0.28" of Ice Pellets/Sleet for ATL.  That will be NASTY if it pans out.
> 
> 18Z GFS COBB output:
> 
> ...



I told y'all...Rain.


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 6, 2011)

22 peeps looking at this thread and only 4 in the Driveler!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

boneboy96 said:


> 22 peeps looking at this thread and only 4 in the Driveler!



Havent you heard?  This is the new Driveler!


----------



## bml (Jan 6, 2011)

This is the _new_ driveler.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

what is a driveler thread?....


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> what is a driveler thread?....



Its so 2010...


----------



## krisjack (Jan 6, 2011)

gon needs a weather forum.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> what is a driveler thread?....



A waste of time and energy.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Its so 2010...



You're such a girl.  I wouldn't even thought of that.
Good one.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 6, 2011)

DDD= Dedicated ,determined, dependable!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 6, 2011)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> You're such a girl.  I wouldn't even thought of that.
> Good one.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

shakey gizzard said:


> DDD= Dedicated ,determined, dependable!



You're so smart. Take after your avatar???????? I would've never figered that one out.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Here is the latest 6pm today GFS Model:
> 
> This is valid for Monday at 1pm.  Monday at 7pm shows even more snow.


I'll see your GFS and raise you a DGEX...this thing is absurd 








No I don't think that is going to happen


----------



## Bnathanb1982 (Jan 6, 2011)

*Crazy*

Am I the only one that hits the refresh button every few minutes to see what's been updated?.  Thankfully I have about 6 tabs open on different weather forums and here and I can click one button and refresh them all at once.  My old computer didn't do that


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 6, 2011)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> You're so smart. Take after your avatar???????? I would've never figered that one out.



Yepps!


----------



## fireman401 (Jan 6, 2011)

I kinda like this one.....might get interesting.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 6, 2011)

Here is a pretty good write up from Mr. Mellish....



Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary   

The models "largely" agree on winter storm
By Kirk Mellish @ January 6, 2011 5:03 PM Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
However, model consensus is no guarantor. The Christmas night storm some models a couple days out had areas north of Macon,Ga getting 6-10 inches of snow they got a sloppy inch after rain. I've been doing this for almost 35 years and I've seen 100% agreement by forecasters and models turn to poop (nada) in less than 12 hours. Perspective and calm are helpful in life  I know politics and the media have turned this into a "gotcha" society with meanness and a lack of civility everywhere. But lets show some Christian Charity and good old fashion American kindness and benefit of the doubt to people, me you everybody. If need be I will shut down this blog or require registration and verification of identity so cowards can't hide behind web anonymity. 

Lets face it, if weather forecasting was easy everyone would do it and everyone would always be right. Yogi Berra is said to have said: "making predictions is hard, especially about the future". Just look at elections, the NFL this year or the stock market the past two years.

But 

Unless something radical changes in the numerical equations output, which is possible because the storm is not yet into the data sampling network, some GA folk get out of school Monday. POSSIBLY a lot of folks.
Everyone from Macon north is in the game. Yes, impressive amounts of snow and/or ice are shown by pretty much all models. But again I warn, the parent system is still in the Pacific, there will be interaction with a separate northern jet branch (which models handle poorly), and the surface low does not yet exist except as a figment of the models "imagination".

Therefore you would have to be a fool to needlessly get bogged down in numbers and locations which will just have to be changed later. I may not have time to blog any further on this so be sure and listen to AM 750 and yes NOW 95.5 FM or click on the forecast link that gives my forecast.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Glenn Burns just dropped the S bomb!
> 
> He said "more than likely nobody will want to be on the roads on Monday"
> 
> He also said you better go get your bread and milK



If my boy GB said it  - game on!(no offense DDD)


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> I'll see your GFS and raise you a DGEX...this thing is absurd
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That is crazy.....15" in ATL!

I was reading another forum and the weather nerds posted that a while ago and said that model does not predict snow very well.  Apparently it shows all precip as snow instead of breaking out ice pellets and freezing rain.  Thats why the amounts are higher.  One MET out of Alabama said to take that model and divide by 2 and that should give a realistic value (that matches GFS too).  Still 7-8" snow is a lot for us followed by 1/4" of frozen pellets, then freezin rain, then freezin temps down in the teens and twenties.   Sounds like quite an event.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 6, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> Here is a pretty good write up from Mr. Mellish....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Sounds like Mr. Mellish is getting ornery.  Someone must have ticked him off.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> Here is a pretty good write up from Mr. Mellish....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



why I try to stay calm and open bout these type of winter storms,it only takes a little to change it a lot.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Jan 6, 2011)

I have thoroughly enjoyed lurking on this thread today....
I'm hoping for the 5-7" of snow for Athens!  Thanks for keeping us all updated DDD, bigox, and others!


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

boneboy96 said:


> 22 peeps looking at this thread and only 4 in the Driveler!



Tell you truth, I just wanta know if I am able to go South to shoot my first duck. Dangit. Sposed to go next weekend to South GA.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> why I try to stay calm and open bout these type of winter storms,it only takes a little to change it a lot.



Killjoy


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 6, 2011)

nickel back said:


> why I try to stay calm and open bout these type of winter storms,it only takes a little to change it a lot.



True, but I can't help but be concerned that I have to drive to N'ville on Sunday(sometime), work all day there Monday, and leave at about midnight to arrive in B'ham to work there all day Tuesday. Then, if possible, leave B'ham at about midnight, to return home to Atl....guess I won't know until the time comes.


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 6, 2011)

Isn't this map for next Friday or am I reading the dates wrong?  Either way, bring it.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

doenightmare said:


> Killjoy



oh the kid in me is ready for it to snow a foot or more,trust me...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Dustin Pate said:


> A waste of time and energy.


 
You sure you're not talking about the spiritual discussion forum??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Sounds like Mr. Mellish is getting ornery. Someone must have ticked him off.


 
Sounds like he's telling the truth to me. That being said........


----------



## JimC (Jan 6, 2011)

UM! Jeff, Monteagle  I mean I am just saying it's supposed to be in that area already. We might better leave Saturday eveing.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 6, 2011)

JimC said:


> UM! Jeff, Mounteagle  I mean I am just saying it's supposed be be in that area already. We might better leave Saturday eveing.



NADA....I can go around it, if need be


----------



## nickel back (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You sure you're not talking about the spiritual discussion forum??


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Jan 6, 2011)

Ken Cod just said the s word but still 1 to 2 inches. He makes me want to hurl


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 6, 2011)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Tell you truth, I just wanta know if I am able to go South to shoot my first duck. Dangit. Sposed to go next weekend to South GA.



I got a muscovy for ya!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 6, 2011)

Have we lost this system all together? Or did the model forecasters get scared by Kirk and back way off???


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have we lost this system all together? Or did the model forecasters get scared by Kirk and back way off???


Poof??


----------



## Sweetwater (Jan 6, 2011)

Write Kirk Mellish nasty, smart aleck emails again and see what happens.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Jan 6, 2011)

Did not DDD say the last storm they went away on an earlier run only to come back? Maybe I "misremebered"


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 6, 2011)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> Did not DDD say the last storm they went away on an earlier run only to come back? Maybe I "misremebered"


He did


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

Here it is Miguel   Just need to look a little higher

Here it is neutral at 66 hrs






And leaning back at 72


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 6, 2011)

Look at all that precip headed our way at 78 hrs...the nam is just a little slower this run...which I think it has a tendency to do getting closer to the event


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 6, 2011)

ya'll quit it.. you are freaking me out with all the colors and namby's and tmzs.... fps' .... freakin milli BARsa and junk......

All I want to see is how much and when... I believe that you have maps and can read them.....but unless it's a topo....I'M FREAKIN LOST!!! 

Quit showing out and tell us when to buy beer and bread.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 6, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> ya'll quit it.. you are freaking me out with all the colors and namby's and tmzs.... fps' .... freakin milli BARsa and junk......
> 
> All I want to see is how much and when... I believe that you have maps and can read them.....but unless it's a topo....I'M FREAKIN LOST!!!
> 
> Quit showing out and tell us when to buy beer and bread.


I already bought the beer, and bread!!.........Although by the time it gets here I may need to buy more beer!!


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 6, 2011)

I can't take anymore of this on again off again roller coaster -I'm almost fidy now. We need to talk.


----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 6, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> ya'll quit it.. you are freaking me out with all the colors and namby's and tmzs.... fps' .... freakin milli BARsa and junk......
> 
> All I want to see is how much and when... I believe that you have maps and can read them.....but unless it's a topo....I'M FREAKIN LOST!!!
> 
> Quit showing out and tell us when to buy beer and bread.


 

What HE said ^^^^^ all them lines and colors makes me wanna hurl and I can't make heads or hinds outta'em any way.    I just need the when, where, and how much (and if it ain't too much trouble could you tell me what it's gonna do in Whitetaco's backyard??)


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 6, 2011)

all I need to know is do I need to reschedule my meeting in Atlanta Monday morning????????


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 6, 2011)

Tag-a-long said:


> What HE said ^^^^^ all them lines and colors makes me wanna hurl and I can't make heads or hinds outta'em any way.    I just need the when, where, and how much (and if it ain't too much trouble could you tell me what it's gonna do in Whitetaco's backyard??)


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> all I need to know is do I need to reschedule my meeting in Atlanta Monday morning????????



Yes.


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2011)

The GFS has not lost the system nor has the NAM... as bigox posted.

I am about to post my thoughts and a map, although I am a little concerned with the slight trending I see.  (ICE)


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 6, 2011)

all those maps are makin me dizzy. I'm just gonna go with DDD and plan for the worst. By the way, Can anybody else make heads or tails outta those maps? Jus askin?


----------



## rospaw (Jan 6, 2011)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> all those maps are makin me dizzy. I'm just gonna go with DDD and plan for the worst. By the way, Can anybody else make heads or tails outta those maps? Jus askin?



It is so so easy to read those maps! Start at the bottom with your pencil and pretent is a MAZE! I win every time. That is every time i play after a few "purple bag" cocktails  Oh and by the way Mrs BAD BEE i can't see any "heads or tails" in those maps but i think i see Willy Nelsons guitar!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

This is what the GFS is preaching however the older run of the EURO is a whole lot more snowy.  The NAM is farther south than this map with the ice as well as the EURO.

I am somewhat comfortable with this set up as much as I don't want to be.  I think this solution is very reasonable.

The actual system will not be onshore until tomorrow when actual sampling will be best for a "real" look at what is to come.
I will wait a while before diving off the deep end and mashing the panic button, but if nothing else this very serious look of a BAD ice storm should prompt the NWS offices to sound the alarm more so than if this was a snow only or rain only event.

I think North of I-20 is going to be mainly snow with 1/4 inch of ice on the back side.

I think I-20 and 30-50 miles south will be ground zero for a serious, serious mess.  

South of that down to Perry will be freezing rain that may or may not have temp issues.  It is just wayyyy to early to try and nail that down.  If the atmosphere cools and the ground temps hold in tight with the wedge effect and the wind coming down the back side of the Apps... well, it could really be bad.

We are 72 hours out.  Crunch time.  I expected a relaxing of the models at this time as they did it with the Christmas storm.  Tomorrow will be the most interesting day of all.  It really will be a good test of what is to come tomorrow.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

I would like to see it snow here and not see it rain.Hopefully the low will take a more southern track than the models forecast.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Jan 7, 2011)

dadgumit... Planning on leaving for talbot county monday morning for a week long hunt..Hopefully this thing slows down or changes to a cold rain so i can hit the highway monday.


----------



## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

> I think I-20 and 30-50 miles south will be ground zero for a serious, serious mess.




uh oh ...


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> This is what the GFS is preaching however the older run of the EURO is a whole lot more snowy.  The NAM is farther south than this map with the ice as well as the EURO.
> 
> I am somewhat comfortable with this set up as much as I don't want to be.  I think this solution is very reasonable.
> 
> ...


Gee Thanks!!...........If ya'll don't hear from me for a few days this is why!!........No electricity No Sattelite internet connection!!.......I will try to check in on battery power when I can!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

I am staying up for the EURO... stupid addiction.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12 (Jan 7, 2011)

Birmingham weathermen are all on board that some type of "major" winter weather event is in the works. Snow, Ice? Ive read anything from 8 inches of snow north of Bham to be followed by .75 inches of ice. It's all gotta move east, maybe we'll get that huge amount of snow, but no ice. Im not going to start preparing until saturday. If all of this hype is still happening saturday around noon, you'll be able to find me at the grocery store!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

EURO holds serve, much colder temps and even MORE moisture.    Big HIT!

It is almost panic button time.  If I adjusted my map from above I would slide that "all snow" line south down to Macon.  Basically back to what I was showing this morning and talking about.

Columbus to Macon to south of Augusta line = All snow North of there.

Take that same line and go south to Perry... and you have one heck of an ice storm.

I am off to bed! 

See you folks in the morning.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

I am hopeful that the snowline move further southward.I do not want ice here.I can deal with snow but not ice.I believe the snow/ice line will be from dothan to albany to tifton line.It all depends on how the low tracks.If it tracks a more southern track then it will be good for us.


----------



## rospaw (Jan 7, 2011)

Nite DDD! thanks for your time and effort. YOU DA MAN


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 7, 2011)

Atleast its gonna be hopefully snow here..I might can make it to work in snow..


----------



## Dutch (Jan 7, 2011)

Why is NOAA and several other weather sites showing highs in the 50's and lows in the mid 30's with rain this weekend in the Macon/Warner Robins area?


Do they not look at the same maps and models as DDD and the others on here? 

Should I be laying into an extra supply of firewood and other consumables for the "big" winter weather event or is it just going to be like last time.....just cold and rainy?


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yes.



That's what I needed to know! Looks like an emergency saturday meeting!!!!!!! Keep up the great work. I've been telling everyone about this!!!!


----------



## Sterlo58 (Jan 7, 2011)

Dustin Pate said:


> A waste of time and energy.



Kinda like some mods we know.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

Sterlo58 said:


> Kinda like some mods we know.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Posting from my phone. Nam and gfs all on board. Pay no attention to the nws in atl. They are worthless.


----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Posting from my phone. Nam and gfs all on board. Pay no attention to the nws in atl. They are worthless.



Thanks DDD..I appreciate all of the updates..I don't pay attention to them..You are Da Man


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

Ice or snow in Milledgeville??????


----------



## 25.06 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Posting from my phone. Nam and gfs all on board. Pay no attention to the nws in atl. They are worthless.




Weather channel keeps saying ice not snow. The temps. look like it's going to be pretty cold. They are calling for snow sunday, freezing rain monday, back to snow tuesday for the griffin area.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

Here is the latest NAM and GFS Models for total snowfall amount....unbelievable!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

I was about to go through withdrawals if i didnt see a map soon!  Thanks, I like the looks of that one!


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

op2:op2:


----------



## brandon (Jan 7, 2011)

Dutch said:


> Why is NOAA and several other weather sites showing highs in the 50's and lows in the mid 30's with rain this weekend in the Macon/Warner Robins area?
> 
> Do they not look at the same maps and models as DDD and the others on here?


The Atlanta NWS office is ultra conservative even by NWS standards. They won't be on board until the precip is on the ground, and even then they'll probably hedge. If you look at the forecast discussions out of the Atlanta office, then compare them to their colleagues out of B'ham and Greenville/Spartanburg on either side, it's like they're on completely different planets. It's sort of silly, really.



> Should I be laying into an extra supply of firewood and other consumables for the "big" winter weather event or is it just going to be like last time.....just cold and rainy?


I am in WR with you. And I think this system has a very good chance of being the real deal. I think we're definitely going to see SOMETHING substantial down here, too soon to tell if it's going to be snow or ice. Either way I'm getting out the heater and testing the generator tonight.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jan 7, 2011)

Sterlo58 said:


> Kinda like some mods we know.



If folks only knew. Anywho, back to the storm!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## pbradley (Jan 7, 2011)

Dustin Pate said:


> If folks only knew. Anywho, back to the storm!!!!!!!!!!



making new friends, DP?


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

Dustin Pate said:


> If folks only knew. Anywho, back to the storm!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Here is what I think right now.  The snow over to Ice Line is not exact.  I might even be willing to drop it 50 miles... it is just hard to say right now.


----------



## Sargent (Jan 7, 2011)

Still on track for Sunday afternoon start?


----------



## No. GA. Mt. Man (Jan 7, 2011)

Ground is getting white up here.


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

No. GA. Mt. Man said:


> Ground is getting white up here.



How much did yawl get from this latest little blast?


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is what I think right now.  The snow over to Ice Line is not exact.  I might even be willing to drop it 50 miles... it is just hard to say right now.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

For all of you asking about why the NWS is not forecasting more, I think there are a few reasons.

A.  When is the last time we had 6+ inches of snow in Georgia?  That's a big call for them.

B.  As Brandon nailed it below, Birmingham to our West says 8", Greenville Spartanburg to our NE says 6-12" they are just not sure and then there is Atlanta in the middle with 1-3" maybe 4?  It is painful to watch and read.

C.  They can always mash the gas and ramp things up quickly, but why they go the low road, I have no idea.  They have more than enough data to back up their forecast of a BIG winter event in here, but they will not do it for fear of being wrong.


----------



## rjcruiser (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


>





DDD said:


> Here is what I think right now.  The snow over to Ice Line is not exact.  I might even be willing to drop it 50 miles... it is just hard to say right now.




finally...two maps I can understand.


Mellish is calling for 1-4" of snow for Metro Atlanta on Monday.  That is impressive this far out...


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Sargent said:


> Still on track for Sunday afternoon start?



Sarge, I would say now it is more 8PM to Midnight from West to East.


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is what I think right now.  The snow over to Ice Line is not exact.  I might even be willing to drop it 50 miles... it is just hard to say right now.



No can see, I hate having photobucket blocked...


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 7, 2011)

I live just south of Cumming... kind of in the SW corner of Forsyth county, we got about 4" IMBY. Very little on the roads though, only slick stuff was in the shade.


----------



## ryano (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> No can see, I hate having photobucket blocked...



here you go


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> No can see, I hate having photobucket blocked...



...ditto... work server has me locked down on a BUNCH of stuff, PhotoBucket included.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> No can see, I hate having photobucket blocked...



Let me see what I can do.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 7, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> finally...two maps I can understand.
> 
> 
> Mellish is calling for 1-4" of snow for Metro Atlanta on Monday.  That is impressive this far out...



Now that's my kinda map. I can read it and it aint makin me dizzy.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

ryano said:


> here you go



Good man right there 

It looked like the 6z NAM slowed things down and increased the precip totals.  I may be wrong, but it looks like it just dumps snow here from like 10pm Sunday night well past noon on Monday...almost into Monday evening it seems 

The 12z is running now so it will be interesting to see if it keeps this up


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

I gotta tell ya'll, I love looking down there and seeing 68 peeps viewing this thread!!!!  LOL!!


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Got a couple 3 here last night!


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I gotta tell ya'll, I love looking down there and seeing 68 peeps viewing this thread!!!!  LOL!!



as useless as it is


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Good man right there
> 
> It looked like the 6z NAM slowed things down and increased the precip totals.  I may be wrong, but it looks like it just dumps snow here from like 10pm Sunday night well past noon on Monday...almost into Monday evening it seems
> 
> The 12z is running now so it will be interesting to see if it keeps this up



Go take a look at the 6Z GFS, look at ther RH values and then look at the 850 temp line.  

Oh me.  Oh my.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Go take a look at the 6Z GFS, look at ther RH values and then look at the 850 temp line.
> 
> Oh me.  Oh my.



Whats that meen?


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

This thread will be on #4, before the storm hits.

That is all......


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Go take a look at the 6Z GFS, look at ther RH values and then look at the 850 temp line.
> 
> Oh me.  Oh my.



Does that mean we may be looking at increased ratios...maybe 15:1 or 20:1??   I'm not good at reading RH values and extrapolating what they mean for the precip column yet


----------



## No. GA. Mt. Man (Jan 7, 2011)

DEERFU39 said:


> How much did yawl get from this latest little blast?


Nothing last night it just started a couple hrs. ago. We got about 8-10'' Christmas.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Does that mean we may be looking at increased ratios...maybe 15:1 or 20:1??   I'm not good at reading RH values and extrapolating what they mean for the precip column yet



Yes.  At night when you see high RH values high and then see your moisture (MSLP) in agreement with your RH values, combine that with the cold air at the 850 level and you have 15:1 ratios which the NWS has not caught onto yet...

yeah, thats how we are going to get the 8"+


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

South GA peeps, you better listen to me, the NWS is starting to get more bullseyed on what I have been preaching for 3 days.

There is a sig. ice storm headed your way.  No 2 ways about it.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yes.  At night when you see high RH values high and then see your moisture (MSLP) in agreement with your RH values, combine that with the cold air at the 850 level and you have 15:1 ratios which the NWS has not caught onto yet...
> 
> yeah, thats how we are going to get the 8"+



 

I'm really liking the fact that this thing is coming on shore now and the 12z nam has it stronger.  The lift this thing looks to be producing over Dallas   Send it on!!


----------



## win280 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I gotta tell ya'll, I love looking down there and seeing 68 peeps viewing this thread!!!!  LOL!!



This thread makes me look very smart  with my coworkers.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge with woody"s.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jan 7, 2011)

pbradley said:


> making new friends, DP?



Oh yeah. I just want folks to know that every moderator gives a 100% and then some more.


----------



## marknga (Jan 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> This thread makes me look very smart  with my coworkers.
> Thanks for sharing your knowledge with woody"s.



You too?
I tell them I got my weather education at DDD Meteorological University. They ask "Where is that?"

I tell em "Just west of Athens".


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I gotta tell ya'll, I love looking down there and seeing 68 peeps viewing this thread!!!!  LOL!!



Then you will really love this:


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 94 (47 members and 47 guests)

Edit:
After I posted the above we had this:

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 96 (48 members and 48 guests)

Edit:
Just need one more member to even it out:

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 99 (49 members and 50 guests)


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 104 (52 members and 52 guests)


----------



## Trigabby (Jan 7, 2011)

marknga said:


> You too?
> I tell them I got my weather education at DDD Meteorological University. They ask "Where is that?"
> 
> I tell em "Just west of Athens".





I get the.. "What does your weather guy say?" all the time...



Thank you, DDD!


----------



## deerslayer357 (Jan 7, 2011)

107- 50 members, 57 guests


----------



## swamp fox (Jan 7, 2011)

111  it keeps growing and growing


----------



## huntinglady74 (Jan 7, 2011)

I know were gonna get hit but please lord don't let us lose power!!!! I can't handle my in laws in the house with me without my internet or cable....


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

I bet we get cold rain


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

huntinglady74 said:


> I know were gonna get hit but please lord don't let us lose power!!!! I can't handle my in laws in the house with me without my internet or cable....



Better break out the "board" games!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD...what are the 12Z models saying?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Guys, the NAM is just a HUGE HIT!  WOW!!!

From Macon northward I would have to say 8-14"... its just CRAZY to look at!!!  Good NIGHT!

Macon south to Perry scares the doo doo out of me... it would be an ice storm like no other.

Well over an inch of precip.  Usually would be 10:1 snow ratio, but I think its going to be more like 12:1 or 15:1


----------



## marknga (Jan 7, 2011)

Oh I hope we don't get ice.....


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

What are that odds of it being 33 and an inch of rain?


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> This thread makes me look very smart  with my coworkers.
> Thanks for sharing your knowledge with woody"s.



 I know exactly what you mean. I have had more fun with some buddies of mine than I can recall in a long time.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

marknga said:


> Oh I hope we don't get ice.....



Mark,

WR is going to be in deep trouble for ice if this verifies.  It will be major.


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> This thread makes me look very smart  with my coworkers.
> Thanks for sharing your knowledge with woody"s.



My coworkers act like I'm a kook...  as long as DDD is right and we get over 5" of snow, its all good!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> What are that odds of it being 33 and an inch of rain?



Depends on where you are, South GA, sure... Franklin County?

You better have chains for your tires.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> My coworkers act like I'm a kook...  as long as DDD is right and we get over 5" of snow, its all good!



Yeah I bet my friends we would see 5" in ATL.  I feel pretty confident about it.


----------



## Paymaster (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> I know exactly what you mean. I have had more fun with some buddies of mine than I can recall in a long time.



Same here. I am getting constant e-mails for updates from the "Woody's Weather Gurus". Just got interrupted posting this by an e-mail notification pop-up.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> My coworkers act like I'm a kook...  as long as DDD is right and we get over 5" of snow, its all good!



I told a couple friends that it was gonna snow 6"+ in Athens and they laughed at me....  I guess we'll see.......

I hope DDD knows what he's talking about!


----------



## elfiii (Jan 7, 2011)

Everybody including the office staff is asking me how I know. I just tell them "elfiii is good, elfiii is wise."


----------



## decoyed (Jan 7, 2011)

Please tell me I will be able to drive to sw La on Thursday....


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

GFS is rolling now... lets see if it will come in as heavy on the moisture as the NAM


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD, et al; as others have stated, you have allowed even the least meteorologically educated among us to speak with confidence and offer bold predictions to our families and co-workers. 

I just had the HR director of a large retail company distribution center  (aka: buddy of mine) ask me where I am getting my info and I just smiled. He was hesitant to take my bold predictions of snow accumulation to his DC director for pre planning for next week based on my word alone.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

For those worried about temps.  Soundings from Griffin, Dacula, Gainesville, all show temps in the 20's at the onset of the precip.

Temp is NOT going to be a problem with this storm.  At least not initially.  If the warm air rides over top of the cold air, like I think it will do in south GA areas that I highlighted, then you are going to see the freezing rain and not the snow.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> DDD, et al; as others have stated, you have allowed even the least meteorologically educated among us to speak with confidence and offer bold predictions to our families and co-workers.
> 
> I just had the HR director of a large retail company distribution center  (aka: buddy of mine) ask me where I am getting my info and I just smiled. He was hesitant to take my bold predictions of snow accumulation to his DC director for pre planning for next week based on my word alone.



Dude,  I am not an expert.  I am a novice, but I can not deny what the models say.  It is what the models say.  The NWS is going to get on board eventually.

See this is what sends me to the moon about the NWS.  If they would just get out there like everyone else and tell of the potential then people could plan accordingly.  But on the same hand, if people re-route shipping or meetings and it doesn't happen then the NWS takes it on the chin.

double edge sword.

We are still more than 48 hours out from the event, but its hard to deny whats coming.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 7, 2011)

K80 said:


> Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 104 (52 members and 52 guests)



Bettcha a million all the weathermen/women on all the Atlanta channels are on this thread! DDD is the man.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Allan Huffman backs up my thinking... this just out on his blog.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

How did the GFS look??


----------



## huntinglady74 (Jan 7, 2011)

DEERFU39 said:


> Better break out the "board" games!



HAHAHAHAHA.. Yeah they are liable to throw them at me...and since my motherinlaw is legaly blind it may hit the dogs...lol...


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Dude,  I am not an expert.  I am a novice, but I can not deny what the models say.  It is what the models say.  The NWS is going to get on board eventually.
> 
> See this is what sends me to the moon about the NWS.  If they would just get out there like everyone else and tell of the potential then people could plan accordingly.  But on the same hand, if people re-route shipping or meetings and it doesn't happen then the NWS takes it on the chin.
> 
> ...



I hear you loud and clear but here is the deal. As a self proclaimed novice, you are not hindered by mgmt, advertising sponsors, or any other hindrance to take the data to its logical conclusions. In other words, you guys all apparently get the same models but the other guys are afraid of turning on their megaphones because of the impact of their words should they be wrong.

There are a lot of advantages to smaller audiences.


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

WooHoo brang it on!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> How did the GFS look??



Hitting refresh as fas as I can man!  

It comes out in 6 hour panels...


----------



## JosephSparks (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> I hear you loud and clear but here is the deal. As a self proclaimed novice, you are not hindered by mgmt, advertising sponsors, or any other hindrance to take the data to its logical conclusions. In other words, you guys all apparently get the same models but the other guys are afraid of turning on their megaphones because of the impact of their words should they be wrong.
> 
> There are a lot of advantages to smaller audiences.



I did hear on the way to work this morning an advertisement for Kroger from Scott Slade referring to the winter weather this weekend.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

GFS is out to 54 hours and looks more juicy than the NAM this maybe another unreal run... buckle up.


----------



## ryano (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> I hear you loud and clear but here is the deal. As a self proclaimed novice, you are not hindered by mgmt, advertising sponsors, or any other hindrance to take the data to its logical conclusions. In other words, you guys all apparently get the same models but the other guys are afraid of turning on their megaphones because of the impact of their words should they be wrong.
> 
> There are a lot of advantages to smaller audiences.



I agree 100 percent


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Wow.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> GFS is out to 54 hours and looks more juicy than the NAM this maybe another unreal run... buckle up.



refresh.....refresh....refresh.....


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Wow.


----------



## Rabbit Hunter 101 (Jan 7, 2011)

I love telling people about what I read hear then getting a funny look and them telling me "there's no way." I just grin back and say "okay we'll see then."

Thanks for what you do DDD. I come here for weather reports over the news any day!


----------



## deerhunter75 (Jan 7, 2011)

*hmmm*


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Wow.



Wow...what? 

Tease.


----------



## 1john4:4 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD you should be a Mod ereologist...


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 7, 2011)

Don't keep us hanging triple D!!!  We're all like snow drug addicts.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

So far I think this run has a better scenario for folks south of I-20 as far as icing goes...looks like the cold is further south...I think...


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> So far I think this run has a better scenario for folks south of I-20 as far as icing goes...looks like the cold is further south...I think...


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

GFS looks like a big hit for Macon, ATL.

The freezing line is down to Albany Tifton with plenty of moisture.  I might have to extend my ice line.


----------



## marknga (Jan 7, 2011)

refresh button is about wore out.....


----------



## Brian Groce (Jan 7, 2011)

Rabbit Hunter 101 said:


> I love telling people about what I read hear then getting a funny look and them telling me "there's no way." I just grin back and say "okay we'll see then."
> 
> Thanks for what you do DDD. I come here for weather reports over the news any day!



My Co Workers done that last year.  Now they ask me what DDD has to say.

We are gonna make that boy famous or Imfamous.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

The GFS continues to hang onto bringing warm air north as the moisture rides in.

Right now I will leave the map alone with saying that I might be persuaded to drop the ICE line farther south.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD when is this thing going to be over land and we can start looking at it on radar?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

No two ways about it, the NWS in ATL will have to issue a Winter Weather Watch with this latest data.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

Alright, i have $600-$900 on the line here.  Do i buy the 5-7kw Portable Genny or not??!?!?!?!?!?!?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> DDD when is this thing going to be over land and we can start looking at it on radar?



The gulf low is not going to pop over Texas until about morning on Sunday.  You bring me to my next point, this looks a tad bit slower so onset in GA will probably be more like midnight to 5am Monday morning.

I hope the weather idiots on t.v. will have convinced schools and working people to stay home because Monday by 4 PM is going to be 1982 all over again if people go to work.

This bugs me.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 7, 2011)

So, am I gonna miss ALL the fun being in N'ville and B'ham on Sunday evening thru Tuesday night late....returning to Atl if possible, Tues at midnight?? What should I expect in those areas, and driving, DDD ???


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> Wow...what?
> 
> Tease.



X 2, isn't there a rule that requires translations?  When DDD says "WOW" it is a foreign langue to the rest of us thus requires a translation on his part. 

Something inside of me wonders if DDD has been a little conservative on his amounts just to be on the safe side....


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Alright, i have $600-$900 on the line here.  Do i buy the 5-7kw Portable Genny or not??!?!?!?!?!?!?



negative.  This should be an all snow event for Woodstock.


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Alright, i have $600-$900 on the line here.  Do i buy the 5-7kw Portable Genny or not??!?!?!?!?!?!?



Yep, from a retailer that has a generous return policy.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Jeff C. said:


> So, am I gonna miss ALL the fun being in N'ville and B'ham on Sunday evening thru Tuesday night late....returning to Atl if possible, Tues at midnight?? What should I expect in those areas, and driving, DDD ???



Negative.  You better learn to like wherever you are Monday morning.  Cause that is where you will stay.


----------



## bam_bam (Jan 7, 2011)

I am down in the Tifton Ga area what am I looking at for monday? Rain? Freezing? Any guesses asto how much?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Just heard Mellish say possible snow rain maybe moving to all rain.


----------



## Jeff C. (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Negative.  You better learn to like wherever you are Monday morning.  Cause that is where you will stay.



 I already warned them about it, but they didn't listen...the show must go on, ya know!!! I hope I ain't sleeping on the side of the road


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD thanks for the updates ...your hobby addiction helps me out TREMENDOUSLY.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Just heard Mellish say possible snow rain maybe moving to all rain.



WHAT?!?!  No way.  He has lost his cookies too.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> WHAT?!?!  No way.  He has lost his cookies too.



I swear...  I heard him on the radio on the way to my meeting in Dunwoody.  I wonder why everyone is being conservative.


----------



## swamp fox (Jan 7, 2011)

how is a fellow supposed to stay focused at work  with all this going on


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Just heard Mellish say possible snow rain maybe moving to all rain.



Weird, I just heard him say 1 to 4 inches of snow with possible modifications up or down as it progresses.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

swamp fox said:


> how is a fellow supposed to stay focused at work  with all this going on



I'm in a meeting now.  I'm trying to figure out how I can change the topic from project integration to the impending snow storm.


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> I swear...  I heard him on the radio on the way to my meeting in Dunwoody.  I wonder why everyone is being conservative.



Because they can't afford not too. Forecast high numbers early and cause panic and then be wrong, that's no good.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Let me back down off the throttle just a bit and cover my tail here...  LOL...

Once this system moves on shore and the models can sample the energy and get a handle on this clipper that is bringing snow showers to us right now, only then will the details get much clearer.

When will that be you ask?  Tomorrow about this same time.  

Bad news is I am calling some basketball tomorrow and will not be parked at the computer.  I will get on at times and try to update from my phone.


----------



## crokseti (Jan 7, 2011)

Just got a dusting for an hour and it ain't melting.
 About 1/2 in. in the truck bed.


----------



## elfiii (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Bad news is I am calling some basketball tomorrow and will not be parked at the computer.  I will get on at times and try to update from my phone.



I can wait until Saturday to go get my milk, bread, beer and the new generator.


----------



## FlyDawg72 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Bad news is I am calling some basketball tomorrow and will not be parked at the computer.  I will get on at times and try to update from my phone.



break out the cellular iPad MAN!!!!


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> I swear...  I heard him on the radio on the way to my meeting in Dunwoody.  I wonder why everyone is being conservative.



Now I just heard him say this also. Man, this station is all over the map.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 7, 2011)

Hey DDD do you think the Mtns will get more due to the upsloping?


----------



## 25.06 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> GFS looks like a big hit for Macon, ATL.
> 
> The freezing line is down to Albany Tifton with plenty of moisture.  I might have to extend my ice line.



This sounds good. Don't want to see the ice.


----------



## win280 (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> I'm in a meeting now.  I'm trying to figure out how I can change the topic from project integration to the impending snow storm.



Just ask"Is it snowing yet"


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Let me back down off the throttle just a bit and cover my tail here...  LOL...
> 
> Once this system moves on shore and the models can sample the energy and get a handle on this clipper that is bringing snow showers to us right now, only then will the details get much clearer.
> 
> ...



Hold on a minute!  There aint no CYB (that's, Cover Your Butt....    ) at this juncture!! You have led the cult to the edge!!  No turning back now!


----------



## DeltaHalo (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Hold on a minute!  There aint no CYB (that's, Cover Your Butt....    ) at this juncture!! You have led the cult to the edge!!  No turning back now!




I'm ready to drink the kool-aid....


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 7, 2011)

I really can't taste the alcohol.......


----------



## marknga (Jan 7, 2011)

DeltaHalo said:


> I'm ready to drink the kool-aid....



Drink it? Heck I've got the DDD IV drip going on.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> I really can't taste the alcohol.......



That's when you know you've got the good stuff.


----------



## Atlsooner (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Just heard Mellish say possible snow rain maybe moving to all rain.



Keep in mind, those weather teasers are recorded and they play them as fill in's. Mellish might have forecasted that last night before any more models come out. Any time those air, he is not live.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

DeltaHalo said:


> I'm ready to drink the kool-aid....



Seriously, think about it. He's got us hooked on his snow threads and now he's even got a few of us idjits to voluntarily get needle pricked by total strangers at "his work" for $75!  Now he will have our blood and dna!


----------



## Jeff Raines (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Seriously, think about it. He's got us hooked on his snow threads and now he's even got a few of us idjits to voluntarily get needle pricked by total strangers at "his work" for $75!  Now he will have our blood and dna!



I didn't think about that,he may have us implanted with something


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 7, 2011)

Long term /sunday night through thursday/...
Aforementioned sfc low will be along the central gulf coast sunday
night. Best chances of precip will be during this time period. Gfs
shows nose of warm air into metro area and into central georgia on
monday night. Temps are freezing at the surface though. Across
north georgia in the mountains this nose of warm air does not
appear until monday afternoon. In addition...thickness values
across the cwa increase on monday. This is not a clear cut rain or
snow case. Overall though...snow expected across north georgia and a
mix or rain/snow/sleet across central georgia. Will have to
continue to monitor this though as freezing rain may be an issue
for some areas. See the special weather statement /spsatl/ for
details on amounts and locations. Based on the current forecast
though...a winter storm watch/warning may have to be issued for
areas of the cwa.


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD must have stock in Kroger or Publix, interesting........


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

Matt.M said:


> DDD must have stock in Kroger or Publix, interesting........



We call it "guerilla marketing" or the classic "pump and dump."


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

I just heard on TWC.  They said possible 1/2 a foot of snow just to say what they  said.  Looks like they are onboard.  op2:


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

TWC is starting to say up to 6" of snow... nothing definite... will stick with DDD for my forecast.


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

Dang - timbuck types faster than me... <grin>


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

OH CANADA....


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

I was in the breakroom when I heard it.  At the other end of the building.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

timbuck6200 said:


> I just heard on TWC.  They said possible 1/2 a foot of snow just to say what they  said.  Looks like they are onboard.  op2:



I love the op2:

Reminds me of the deer baiting thread from years ago... but lets not go there...

Doesn't anyone want to know about the EURO?


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 7, 2011)

Stuff like this is why Kurt gets nasty notes lol

Kirk T. Melhuish
So far computer simulations of the atmosphere have not backed down on significant snow and/or ice for all of Metro by Mon. But I've seen 5 inches on the ground in Birmingham fall and turn a snow forecast to partly sunny in Atlanta in less than 6 hours! See my 5 day forecast and blog at wsbradio.com and Atlanta Weather Examiner.com


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I love the op2:
> 
> Reminds me of the deer baiting thread from years ago... but lets not go there...
> 
> ...


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

EURO is farther north at 60 hours... interesting... looks like 2.00" of moisture over Dallas... have mercy.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> Stuff like this is why Kurt gets nasty notes lol
> 
> Kirk T. Melhuish
> So far computer simulations of the atmosphere have not backed down on significant snow and/or ice for all of Metro by Mon. But I've seen 5 inches on the ground in Birmingham fall and turn a snow forecast to partly sunny in Atlanta in less than 6 hours! See my 5 day forecast and blog at wsbradio.com and Atlanta Weather Examiner.com



Yep.  He lost some street credit with me on the icing event and the Christmas storm.  He has gotten gun shy.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO is farther north at 60 hours... interesting... looks like 2.00" of moisture over Dallas... have mercy.



how much farther north?  GFS and NAM are perfect outcomes as far as I'm concerned.


----------



## HuntinRebel3 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO is farther north at 60 hours... interesting... looks like 2.00" of moisture over Dallas... have mercy.



So I assume the snow line would move back north and the possibility of a total ice event for Middle GA.  What does it look like for Columbia, SC - Sumter, SC area?


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO is farther north at 60 hours... interesting... looks like 2.00" of moisture over Dallas... have mercy.



But we're not in Dallas.  What does that equate to here?  Less snow, more ice?
Any thoughts on why Mellish is so bound and determined not to buy into this?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

EURO says hello to Nashville and middle Tennessee only shows what looks to be about 2-4" of snow here...

I must say, I am a little baffled.


----------



## YOGIGATOR (Jan 7, 2011)

how much snow does that equate to?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

If you remember, same thing happened with the last storm... I am not flipping out like I did last time.  We are still over 48 hours out.

It is still a good snow, takes the real serious ice threat off the table.

The EURO is the outlier right now.  The NAM, GFS, Canadian models are all still on track.  The EURO is just farther north with the heavy moisture.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yep.  He lost some street credit with me on the icing event and the Christmas storm.  He has gotten gun shy.




I dont know whats gotten wrong with him..his blog

ADDED 8 Friday morning: Just a degree or two F can spell the difference between snow, all ice or just rain sometimes over just a 25-50 mile area. I'll re-post the met 101 lesson on this from last year later today if I get a chance. PREVIOUS:

However, model consensus is no guarantor. The Christmas night storm some models a couple days out had areas north of Macon,Ga getting 6-10 inches of snow they got a sloppy inch after rain. I've been doing this for almost 35 years and I've seen 100% agreement by forecasters and models turn to poop (nada) in less than 12 hours. Perspective and calm are helpful in life  I know politics and the media have turned this into a "gotcha" society with meanness and a lack of civility everywhere. But lets show some Christian Charity and good old fashion American kindness and benefit of the doubt to people, me you everybody. If need be I will shut down this blog or require registration and verification of identity so cowards can't hide behind web anonymity.

Lets face it, if weather forecasting was easy everyone would do it and everyone would always be right. Yogi Berra is said to have said: "making predictions is hard, especially about the future". Just look at elections, the NFL this year or the stock market the past two years.

But
Unless something radical changes in the numerical equations output, which is possible because the storm is not yet into the data sampling network, some GA folk get out of school Monday. POSSIBLY a lot of folks.
Everyone from Macon north is in the game. Yes, impressive amounts of snow and/or ice are shown by pretty much all models. But again I warn, the parent system is still in the Pacific, there will be interaction with a separate northern jet branch (which models handle poorly), and the surface low does not yet exist except as a figment of the models "imagination".

Therefore you would have to be a fool to needlessly get bogged down in numbers and locations which will just have to be changed later. I may not have time to blog any further on this so be sure and listen to AM 750 and yes NOW 95.5 FM or click on the forecast link that gives my forecast.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Something about the EURO's sampling off the California coast is weird at this time frame.  I am not putting a lot of stock in it.


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

Does that mean that the EURO model is not accurate right now... trying to make sure we don't get blindsided... a lot of people in the neighborhood where I live don't "pay attention" like they need to... trying to give them a heads up and make sure we are prepared as well... have a couple of little ones to look out for...


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Something about the EURO's sampling off the California coast is weird at this time frame.  I am not putting a lot of stock in it.



Yeah last time didn't the Euro just completely erase the thing in this time frame?  I'm going with the trends the GFS/NAM/Canadian have been showing today


----------



## JosephSparks (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Yeah last time didn't the Euro just completely erase the thing in this time frame?  I'm going with the trends the GFS/NAM/Canadian have been showing today



How much work productivity in dollars does this thread cost all of our companies?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

If this won't start a bread, milk, cigs and beer run... nothing will.  

This is further proof that God hates Auburn.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> If this won't start a bread, milk, cigs and beer run... nothing will.



Woohoo! Im looking forward to the french toast and beer breakfast's!


----------



## JosephSparks (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> If this won't start a bread, milk, cigs and beer run... nothing will.



I hope the power goes out to every Auburn fan in Alabama so they cannot watch the game on Monday night.


----------



## rjcruiser (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> If this won't start a bread, milk, cigs and beer run... nothing will.



Finally...another map I can read.

Oh wait....I can't find my county on that map


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

OK - I am trying really hard to learn this stuff - I JUST found this site with these links... 
I did a search and came up with the following links - are they what you all are referring to?
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/weather_models.php
http://weather.unisys.com/index.php
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html

Next thing is to learn how to read them..


----------



## marknga (Jan 7, 2011)

Boy alot of them Awbern folks are gonna be mad if they ain't got no power Monday night.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

HammerG26 said:


> OK - I am trying really hard to learn this stuff - I JUST found this site with these links...
> I did a search and came up with the following links - are they what you all are referring to?
> http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/weather_models.php
> http://weather.unisys.com/index.php
> ...




I don't really care about the rivers in Cali and Nevada, but if you want to look somewhere else here you go 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> If this won't start a bread, milk, cigs and beer run... nothing will.
> .



Dadgumit


----------



## decoyed (Jan 7, 2011)

How will I-10 look headed to SW La?...For mid day thurs...thanks!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

decoyed said:


> How will I-10 look headed to SW La?...For mid day thurs...thanks!



Hopefuly they will have the roads cleared by then.


----------



## elfiii (Jan 7, 2011)

JosephSparks said:


> How much work productivity in dollars does this thread cost all of our companies?



"If you have to ask the price, you can't afford it."


----------



## jcountry (Jan 7, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> I dont know whats gotten wrong with him..his blog
> 
> ADDED 8 Friday morning: Just a degree or two F can spell the difference between snow, all ice or just rain sometimes over just a 25-50 mile area. I'll re-post the met 101 lesson on this from last year later today if I get a chance. PREVIOUS:
> 
> ...



I have been reading his blog for a while too, and he is really turning into a real tool.  I am also angry that he missed out on the entire Christmas storm. If you get paid to forecast weather and you don't even update a blog for 3 weeks during the first white christmas in 130 years you really ain't much of a meterologist in my opinion.

I think Kirk is just angry that the facts are disproving his silly notion that manmade global warming is real.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO says hello to Nashville and middle Tennessee only shows what looks to be about 2-4" of snow here...
> 
> I must say, I am a little baffled.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> Stuff like this is why Kurt gets nasty notes lol
> 
> Kirk T. Melhuish
> So far computer simulations of the atmosphere have not backed down on significant snow and/or ice for all of Metro by Mon. But I've seen 5 inches on the ground in Birmingham fall and turn a snow forecast to partly sunny in Atlanta in less than 6 hours! See my 5 day forecast and blog at wsbradio.com and Atlanta Weather Examiner.com


Just heard him on the radio say snow the turning to all rain for metro Atlanta. That was 30 min ago in my car...I swear he said rain.


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 7, 2011)

jcountry said:


> I think Kirk is just angry that the facts are disproving his silly notion that manmade global warming is real.



That was my laugh out loud for the day!!!!


----------



## Rabbit Hunter 101 (Jan 7, 2011)

Well I sure hope triple D is right in his 8-14" prediction. I know it's still early on but I really wanna see it happen. I guess only time will tell though. But buddy my refresh button is gettin slap wore out waiting for updates.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Just heard him on the radio say snow the turning to all rain for metro Atlanta. That was 30 min ago in my car...I swear he said rain.



Ol Kirk is trying his best to jinx us all.....

I might have to register and send him a blog comment


----------



## brandon (Jan 7, 2011)

jcountry said:


> I think Kirk is just angry that the facts are disproving his silly notion that manmade global warming is real.


You do realize that if global warming IS real, it would mean *colder* winters with more extreme weather, right?


----------



## Paymaster (Jan 7, 2011)

Brandon said:


> You do realize that if global warming IS real, it would mean *colder* winters with more extreme weather, right?



I think global warming may be real,just don't believe man is causing it.


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

No thread hijacking - we are all watching for snow.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Just heard him on the radio say snow the turning to all rain for metro Atlanta. That was 30 min ago in my car...I swear he said rain.



When I went to lunch he said turning to rain or freezing rain  

Maybe you turned your car off before he said that?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

Hearing that some big news is coming from the NWS in Peachtree city momentarily...


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 7, 2011)

I ain't wearing nuttin but my galoshes . . .


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Guys, Winter Weather Watch is about to go up for all of North Georgia.  NWS is going to call for 5-7".  They are also going to call for a major ice storm in SW GA.

I would go to the grocery stores now.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> Hearing that some big news is coming from the NWS in Peachtree city momentarily...



Yep. 

I think I have truly missed my calling.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Brandon said:


> You do realize that if global warming IS real, it would mean *colder* winters with more extreme weather, right?


 


Paymaster said:


> I think global warming may be real,just don't believe man is causing it.


 
Global Warming, as a marketable industry in so much as Al Gore and his band of thieves have set up is a complete farce.

Global Climate Cycles have been in existance since the beginning of this old sphere, without us even being here for the major part of it's existance, and will continue to happen long after we are gone.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 7, 2011)

well said miguel....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Guys, Winter Weather Watch is about to go up for all of North Georgia..


 
Waiting patiently to see what the weather sages at PTC can come up with this time..


----------



## jcountry (Jan 7, 2011)

Brandon said:


> You do realize that if global warming IS real, it would mean *colder* winters with more extreme weather, right?



Not at all.  I first read of this CO2 "greenhouse effect" back in 1988, and have followed it closely since then.  I am an avid science buff, and have read about this stuff long enough to see it completely hijacked by politicians.

It has morphed from "greenhouse effect" to "global warming" to "climate change."  It has been co-opted to even predict greater numbers of and stronger hurricanes and tornadoes.  Pretty soon, they will be blaming it for the fact that it is hard to find a parking space in NY. The science behind this "research" has turned into complete garbage.  No matter which side you subscribe to, the science cannot be trusted, it is now 95% politics, and 5% anything else.

-Read this, if you want to see what the truth behind "global warming," "climate change," or whatever they are calling it this week:

http://www.michaelcrichton.net/essay-stateoffear-whypoliticizedscienceisdangerous.html

-And for the big-picture view:
http://www.frugal-cafe.com/public_h...-earth-day-global-warming-and-climate-change/

-People need perspective on what happens when politics hijacks science.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

I think I actually selfishly like it better when the NWS waits till the last minute.  It makes the "I told you so" a little better.  But if this happens, people need to be warned.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Guys, lets not derail this convo, but let me tell you that I firmly believe that global warming is the biggest joke known to man kind.

Its as good as marketing Y3K supplies.

Lets keep this on topic shall we?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Guys, Winter Weather Watch is about to go up for all of North Georgia.  NWS is going to call for 5-7".  They are also going to call for a major ice storm in SW GA.
> 
> I would go to the grocery stores now.



So is Warner Robins in the clear now?


----------



## JosephSparks (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Guys, lets not derail this convo, but let me tell you that I firmly believe that global warming is the biggest joke known to man kind.
> 
> Its as good as marketing Y3K supplies.
> 
> Lets keep this on topic shall we?



Agreed.  When I was bartending I had a rule.  No one can talk about politics or religion.  Same go for the weather thread!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> So is Warner Robins in the clear now?



Dude, you are set up for an ice storm.  I would prepare myself as such.


----------



## texwilliams (Jan 7, 2011)

"Re: National Weather Service Conference Call
Date: 1/7/2011 
We were on a conference call with the National Weather Service today 
around noon.  They are predicting snow and sleet for our area beginning 
Sunday night and into Monday.  They expect the precipitation to begin 
sometime around midnight on Sunday.
From 7pm Sunday to 7pm Monday they expect our area to receive 4-6 
inches of snow changing to mostly sleet.  Counties north of us such as 
Madison, Jackson, and Elbert fall into the area that is projected to 
receive 6-8 inches of mostly snow.  The low temperature for Sunday is 
27 and the high for Monday is 31.  They are expecting ice accumulations 
of up to ¼ inch. 
Please remember that this is a forecast that can change.  The system 
that is projected to cause this precipitation is currently located off the 
coast of California.  Please listen to the news for weather updates and 
possible winter storm watch announcements from the National 
Weather Service."

The above was sent to me from a teacher in our school district... This email was forwarded to her from another school system a little further south of us.  So it looks like the NWS is on board they just have not gone publice with it.


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

what about Miledgeville? GVot two babies need to know!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

If you want to talk about global warming, please go to the political forum to receive you spanking and education.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

NAM is next.  Hopefully it is not following the EURO but rather trending in the same direction it has been.


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> NAM is next.  Hopefully it is not following the EURO but rather trending in the same direction it has been.



What time ?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> what about Miledgeville? GVot two babies need to know!



I am going to be real honest with you.  That in my opinion will be the "NASTY ZONE".  I would be real concerned about my power and food supply there.  With out question.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Out ahead of the moisture the cold air is really socked in here... freezing line looks to be all the way to Valdosta Sunday morning, per this run of the NAM.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 7, 2011)

Why is it so windy this eve? Cold front? Is it gonna die off about dark?


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I am going to be real honest with you.  That in my opinion will be the "NASTY ZONE".  I would be real concerned about my power and food supply there.  With out question.



would we be better off packing up and heading south to Dawson or North to Madison?


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> Why is it so windy this eve? Cold front? Is it gonna die off about dark?



Yeah it has really gotten dark and windy here in Atl.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> would we be better off packing up and heading south to Dawson or North to Madison?


 
Dawson is a much safer bet. Madison is most likely going to be a real mess.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> would we be better off packing up and heading south to Dawson or North to Madison?



I *think* Madison is going to be all snow... I would not go south.  As crazy as that sounds.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

cejay825 said:


> What time ?



Now


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I *think* Madison is going to be all snow... I would not go south. As crazy as that sounds.


 
You do realize how far south Dawson is don't you?? Folks from Albany consider it a road trip...

Oops, my bad, I was thinking about Douglas, Ga. I'd stay put right where you are if I were you. Or if you like, Quack is just right up the road a few miles and he is stocked up and ready to go.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dawson is a much safer bet. Madison is most likely going to be a real mess.



How far south is Dawson?


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD-- How does Augusta look in all of this ? snow...ice...sleet


----------



## Da Possum (Jan 7, 2011)

There are 99 people up in here on this thread


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD, give us an updated map


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

cejay825 said:


> DDD-- How does Augusta look in all of this ? snow...ice...sleet



Messy.  Right now my guess would be 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice.

I will no more with each model run.


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> How far south is Dawson?



bout 15 minutes north of Albany


----------



## maker4life (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> How far south is Dawson?



Just NW of Albany .


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> DDD, give us an updated map



Not gonna do one until tonight.  NAM is running now... GFS will be out later...


----------



## cejay825 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Messy.  Right now my guess would be 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice.
> 
> I will no more with each model run.



Hey...I'll take it !!


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You do realize how far south Dawson is don't you?? Folks from Albany consider it a road trip...
> 
> Oops, my bad, I was thinking about Douglas, Ga. I'd stay put right where you are if I were you. Or if you like, Quack is just right up the road a few miles and he is stocked up and ready to go.



yeah Quack is 30 minutes southeast of me. I guess we will just stay here. If I go to Quack's I may end up staying too long!


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You do realize how far south Dawson is don't you?? Folks from Albany consider it a road trip...
> 
> Oops, my bad, I was thinking about Douglas, Ga. I'd stay put right where you are if I were you. Or if you like, Quack is just right up the road a few miles and he is stocked up and ready to go.



Yeah...he should just PM Quack...Quack probably wouldn't even mind picking him up if it got bad since he has 4wd...he's such a nice guy


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> bout 15 minutes north of Albany



Again, I *think* that area will be out of the woods as far as ice goes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Yeah...he should just PM Quack...Quack probably wouldn't even mind picking him up if it got bad since he has 4wd...he's such a nice guy


 
Actually Quack told me he spoke with Miss Vickers and that her and about 3 of her associates are going to be at the farm this weekend. I've changed my plans on where I'm weathering the storm. You have fun with BBQBOSS and Bitteroot...


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actually Quack told me he spoke with Miss Vickers and that her and about 3 of her associates are going to be at the farm this weekend. I've changed my plans on where I'm weathering the storm. You have fun with BBQBOSS and Bitteroot...





I bet yall will stay warmer than we will


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

The temps and CAD signature on this one look real good so far


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You do realize how far south Dawson is don't you?? Folks from Albany consider it a road trip...
> 
> Oops, my bad, I was thinking about Douglas, Ga. I'd stay put right where you are if I were you. Or if you like, Quack is just right up the road a few miles and he is stocked up and ready to go.







Crooked Stick said:


> yeah Quack is 30 minutes southeast of me. I guess we will just stay here. If I go to Quack's I may end up staying too long!




I thought you quit drinking??



bigox911 said:


> Yeah...he should just PM Quack...Quack probably wouldn't even mind picking him up if it got bad since he has 4wd...he's such a nice guy







Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actually Quack told me he spoke with Miss Vickers and that her and about 3 of her associates are going to be at the farm this weekend. I've changed my plans on where I'm weathering the storm. You have fun with BBQBOSS and Bitteroot...





Whoooooooot !!  Partay at da farm!!




Seriously, I hope ya'll are wrong about all this, but I'm about as ready as you can be!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Here she comes on the NAM... really snowing good here at 6AM...

From Columbus over to Athens... the nasty ice is just beginning south of Macon.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Yep, NAM gives us a good thump.  6-8" of snow.  .5" of ice south of Macon, but as the hours roll off I think Macon and points upwards towards I-20 will change over to freezing rain... and boy... you talk about a mess.  wow.


----------



## brandon (Jan 7, 2011)

jcountry said:
			
		

> I first read of this CO2 "greenhouse effect" back in 1988, and have followed it closely since then. I am an avid science buff, and have read about this stuff long enough to see it completely hijacked by politicians.


Apparently you missed the "if" in my comment.    FWIW I completely agree with you on the political aspect. That said, all too often on forums like this someone helpfully points out that a run of cold weather is evidence against global warming, which is always good for a chuckle. That's what I thought you were implying with your original comment.



			
				deermeat270 said:
			
		

> If you want to talk about global warming, please go to the political forum to receive you spanking and education.



Let me think about that for a minute.

...

No. But thanks  

With that, sorry for the thread hijack, let's get back to the SNOW!


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

I thought you quit drinking??

Well I guess one or two couldn't hurt right!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## brandon (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yep, NAM gives us a good thump.  6-8" of snow.  .5" of ice south of Macon, but as the hours roll off I think Macon and points upwards towards I-20 will change over to freezing rain... and boy... you talk about a mess.  wow.


I just took one of my employees to Lowes to get a kerosene heater. They only have a few left... better get there quick!


----------



## rjcruiser (Jan 7, 2011)

So...does that mean I-20 is going to be slick?  I'm right on that line....just hope it moves south and we get the white stuff...not the clear stuff.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

*Area Forecast Discussion*


000FXUS62 KFFC 072030AFDFFCAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA330 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT......WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WILL NEED TO GET THROUGH FIRST MINOR WINTER EVENT BEFORE DELVINGINTO THE SPECIFICS OF A POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA.LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THECAROLINAS AND EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INPLACE FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS HAS RESULTEDIN A STRONG GRADIENT LOCALLY AND LESS CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED ISGIVING US A STRONG MIXING PROFILE. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KTSAVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN AND EVERY BIT OF THIS IS REACHING THE SURFACEIN THE FORM OF GUSTS. HAVE POSTED A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY TOCOVER THESE WINDS. AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ELEVATION SNOW...JUST ADUSTING COMING IN FROM THOSE COUNTIES AND THE MAJORITY HAVE SEENTHIS SN COME TO AN END WITH JUST SCT SN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FORTHE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTOF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THETENNESSEE VALLEY...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUNWITH HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SAT AND UPPER 30S FOR SUN IN THE METRO.DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SETTINGTHE STAGE FOR THE NEXT WINTER EVENT. GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK TOOCOLD ON THESE DEWPOINTS BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM AIRMASS...WOULD NOTBE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER TEENS VALUES.LET`S GET TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THIS FORECASTPACKAGE WHICH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THE LATTER HALFOF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THECLOSED LOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON FOR THIS EVENT IS NOWINITIALIZED ONSHORE CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD GIVE SOME ADDEDCONFIDENCE.LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNAFTERNOON WITH 1005 SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST.ALTHOUGH SIMILAR WITH PLACEMENT...ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEMTHROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACTUALLY FAVOR A MORE SN EVENTACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS WARM NOSE ARRIVES LATE...LARGELY AFTERDRY SLOT MOVES IN. GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH BUFRSOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG WARM NOSE INFILTRATING ENTIRE CWA WITH SNCHANGING TO PL/RA. OTHER IMPORTANT EVOLVING FEATURE IN FORECASTHAS BEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH CONTINUES TOSTRENGTHEN IN THE MODELS AS DOES WEDGE THROUGH ALL OF GA. THISWOULD ALL BUT ELIMINATE RA AS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CWA *WITHFREEZING RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE FROM COLUMBUS TO MILLEDGEVILLE.NORTH OF THIS LINE...MORE OF A SLEET CONCERN WITH SN LIKELYCONTINUING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND MOUNTAINS. GIVEN EXPECTEDWARNING CRITERIA FOR SN FOR NORTHERN HALF AND PROSPECTS FOR ICEACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTH...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FORALL AREAS. FOR THE METRO AREAS NORTH...WILL ADVERTISE 3 TO 5INCHES WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND ISOLATEDHIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH...IT WILLDEPEND ON HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM BECOMES BUT WILL ADVERTISE 1 TO 3INCHES WITH THE ICE THREAT BEING MORE OF A CONCERN.AT THIS POINT...*WOULD BE RE-MISSED IF DID NOT MENTION WHERE FORECASTCOULD GO AWRY. SHOULD SQUALL LINE DEVELOP OVER THE GULF...MOISTURETRANSPORT MAY BE LIMITED AND AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE WOULD BELOWER. LIKEWISE...IF WARM NOSE IS STRONG ENOUGH...AND WEDGE HOLDSAT THE SURFACE...SEVERE ICE EVENT COULD UNFOLD FOR A LAGER PORTIONOF THE AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE EXPECTATIONS IN WINTER STORMWATCH.BASED ON LOW PRESSURES EVENTUAL TRACK...COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANTSN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME OFTHE ANALOG GUIDANCE OF PREVIOUS STORMS. MAY NEED TO ADJUST SNOWTOTALS UP THERE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS..LONG TERM...REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCHANGED AS FOCUSWILL BE ON UPCOMING WINTER STORM.</PRE>


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

This from the NWS in PTC.  Wow.  This is HUGE for ATL.



> LET`S GET TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THIS FORECAST
> PACKAGE WHICH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THE LATTER HALF
> OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
> CLOSED LOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON FOR THIS EVENT IS NOW
> ...


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> So...does that mean I-20 is going to be slick?  I'm right on that line....just hope it moves south and we get the white stuff...not the clear stuff.



Dude, every surface from Warner Robins North ward is going to be slick.  Surface temps are anywhere from 29° to 24°.

Its gonna be slick to say the least.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## Nate23 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


>



Wow...that's a lot of snow.

Any more thoughts on the ratio?


----------



## nickel back (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Yep, NAM gives us a good thump.  6-8" of snow.  .5" of ice south of Macon, but as the hours roll off I think Macon and points upwards towards I-20 will change over to freezing rain... and boy... you talk about a mess.  wow.



I hope the ice stays away for the most part.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Due to the heavy precip, snow rates could be 12 or 15 to 1 in this highlighted area.  Would be a snow fall of epic proportions for our state.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

This is computer generated from the NAM Product. 

Yes folks, that is snow depth in inches.  good grief.


----------



## 1john4:4 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Due to the heavy precip, snow rates could be 12 or 15 to 1 in this highlighted area.  Would be a snow fall of epic proportions for our state.




Me hopey this is verified... Buying baby girl a sled first thing in the morning! Got one on hold!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

I can't zoom in far enough to tell exactly how much IMBY, but best I can tell is about 11.375". Can you verify that??


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 7, 2011)

This aint looking good!


----------



## Sargent (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can't zoom in far enough to tell exactly how much IMBY, but best I can tell is about 11.375". Can you verify that??



Are you measuring to the top or bottom of the topmost snow flake in the pile?


----------



## Strych9 (Jan 7, 2011)

I gotta find sumpin to use for a sled!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Wonder if Kirk still thinks it's gonna rain?


----------



## Strych9 (Jan 7, 2011)

also gotta find a way to get to work on Monday


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Sargent said:


> Are you measuring to the top or bottom of the topmost snow flake in the pile?


 
I am measuring from the ground to the top of the icy crust that will be on top when the event is all done. For the record, the icy crust makes a sled go about mach II on a good hill!!!!


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 7, 2011)

I AM DROOLING!!!
May have to get a sled tomorrow am.
All of ours are in Michigan.

And if it is all snow - going to have a BLAST in the Jeep!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Strych9 said:


> also gotta find a way to get to work on Monday


 
You'll be told tomorrow to bring 3 days of clothing and show up on Sunday with preparations to stay.... No worries...


----------



## win280 (Jan 7, 2011)

Strych9 said:


> I gotta find sumpin to use for a sled!



A car hood works good for a sled.Just make sure you take the hood ornament off first.


----------



## Sargent (Jan 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> A car hood works good for a sled.Just make sure you take the hood ornament off first.



Or you can get creative and use it as a rudder.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

Strych9 said:


> also gotta find a way to get to work on Monday



Leave early   Just glad Merr don't have to work till Tuesday...hopefully the roads will be a little clear by then


----------



## Nate23 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I am measuring from the ground to the top of the icy crust that will be on top when the event is all done. For the record, the icy crust makes a sled go about mach II on a good hill!!!!



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----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> A car hood works good for a sled.Just make sure you take the hood ornament off first.


 
Muddyfoots??? Is that you???



Sargent said:


> Or you can get creative and use it as a rudder.


 
Back in the '73 storm we discoverd that sleds didn't work on the deep stuff too well (old wood and steel runner sleds) However, the lid off of the toilets from one of the new houses being built were DA BOMB...... Steering them was challenging, but who cared, they were lightning fast..


----------



## Sultan of Slime (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD what does it look like for High Falls ie Jackson Ga?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> This is computer generated from the NAM Product.
> 
> Yes folks, that is snow depth in inches.  good grief.



I like this trend!!!!  Please stay together storm.  Please!!!!


----------



## Rabbit Hunter 101 (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> I like this trend!!!!  Please stay together storm.  Please!!!!



Me too!!! Dang I hope this thing holds! I can feel the kid in me kicking in.


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Muddyfoots??? Is that you???
> 
> 
> 
> Back in the '73 storm we discoverd that sleds didn't work on the deep stuff too well (old wood and steel runner sleds) However, the lid off of the toilets from one of the new houses being built were DA BOMB...... Steering them was challenging, but who cared, they were lightning fast..



How bout a disc or a toboggan?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Resica said:


> How bout a disc or a toboggan?


 
Yeah, the keep lots of those in stock at Wal-Mart in Georgia...


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Muddyfoots??? Is that you???
> 
> 
> 
> Back in the '73 storm we discoverd that sleds didn't work on the deep stuff too well (old wood and steel runner sleds) However, the lid off of the toilets from one of the new houses being built were DA BOMB...... Steering them was challenging, but who cared, they were lightning fast..



You know Muddy uses a truck hood, It must be his younger Brother.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

This could produce an all time record snowfall for ATL.


----------



## ginosmommy (Jan 7, 2011)

Just got my new sled yesterday.  Golf cart top and have 4 cans of non stick cooking spray!  Going to be an adventure!


----------



## 1john4:4 (Jan 7, 2011)

http://www.11alive.com/

DDD... 11 Alive has been following your thread!


----------



## flyingt (Jan 7, 2011)

ace hardware has plenty. I even have a runner sled. reckon I better get it out and steel wool the runner and add some fresh wax.
I have a question does one inch of rain equal about 10 inches of snow?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

1john4:4 said:


> http://www.11alive.com/
> 
> DDD... 11 Alive has been following your thread!



They will come out of the woodwork now that the NWS said something.


----------



## Nate23 (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> This could produce an all time record snowfall for ATL.



What is the record? I find conflicting reports.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

flyingt said:


> ace hardware has plenty. I even have a runner sled. reckon I better get it out and steel wool the runner and add some fresh wax.
> I have a question does one inch of rain equal about 10 inches of snow?



Depends on the snow ratio.  10:1 means 1" of water equivalent equals 10" of snow.  The colder and drier snow will produce better snow ratios like 15:1 whereas the wetter heavier snow will produce smaller ratios like 5:1.  DDD can tell you a lot more.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

On the road but gfs is a snow bomb.


----------



## telco guy (Jan 7, 2011)

Are we still looking at Sunday evening or Monday a.m. when it gets in here?


----------



## Krickit (Jan 7, 2011)

Per 11alive:

The National Weather Service has listed the greatest snowfall amounts for their Atlanta reporting location at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport since 1949:

1) 7.9"......March 24, 1983 
2) 5.8"......January 12-13, 1982 (became known as "Snowjam 82') 
3) 5.0"......January 18-19, 1992 
4) 4.6"......January 2-3, 2002 
5) 4.4"......February 17-18, 1979 (all sleet/ ice pellets) 
6) 4.2"......March 13, 1993 ("Blizzard of 93") 
7) 4.2"......January 7-8, 1988 (sleet/ ice) 
8 4.0"......March 10, 1960 
9) 3.9"......February 1952 
10) 3.6"....January 21-22, 1987

Think we'll get close or maybe surpass these totals?


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, the keep lots of those in stock at Wal-Mart in Georgia...



Excellent then!!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

Krickit said:


> Per 11alive:
> 
> The National Weather Service has listed the greatest snowfall amounts for their Atlanta reporting location at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport since 1949:
> 
> ...



I remember that one in Febuary 1979!!...........All sleet/ice pellets makes for the best sledding!!!!............Talk about fast!!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> I bet yall will stay warmer than we will







Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actually Quack told me he spoke with Miss Vickers and that her and about 3 of her associates are going to be at the farm this weekend. I've changed my plans on where I'm weathering the storm. You have fun with BBQBOSS and Bitteroot...





Strych9 said:


> I gotta find sumpin to use for a sled!



im gonna use those big aluminum pans that i use for bbq, as sleds! They are big enough for the kids and I bet they will fly, with a few sprays of pam on the bottom!!!


----------



## Jeff Raines (Jan 7, 2011)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> I remember that one in Febuary 1979!!...........All sleet/ice pellets makes for the best sledding!!!!............Talk about fast!!



they made for hard snow balls too


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Jeff Raines said:


> they made for hard snow balls too


 
Well, that explains it!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Gatorb said:


> maybe DDD should be the only one allowed to post in this thread (or any of his qualified assistants). keep the drivel crap in your drivel threads...lol


 
If we wanted our weather threads to be strictly "on topic" then we wouldn't put them in the "around the campfire" forums. A quick read of the rules in those respective forums should gather any confusion you seem to be having regarding the difference.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Gatorb said:


> ive got no confusion young fella.....keep your rules...


 
I'll remember that come tornado season..


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Ok, summary before I go brave Wal-Mart and some dinner.

NAM and GFS look very similar.  Latest GFS gave Augusta / Columbia the bomb of moisture.  GFS still has this warm air aloft that it brings with the heavy precip.  I still don't buy this lock stock and barrel.  

Here are my guesses as I sit here now:

ATL: 4-6" (inside perimeter)
Athens: 7-10"
Gainesville: 7-10"
Rome:  5-7"
Dawsonville 7-10"
Helen: 7-9"
Griffin:  4" turning to sleet and freezing rain
Lake Oconee:  4" turning to sleet and freezing rain
Columbus 2-4" with sig. chance of freezing rain
Macon: 2-4" with sig chance of freezing rain
Warner Robbins:  Crippling Ice storm
Augusta 6-8" turning over to freezing rain


----------



## Jeff Raines (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, that explains it!!!



yep


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Jan 7, 2011)

Curious, the t.v. goons seem like they see more freezing rain for even north Ga. 

Why do they seem to like this scenario over just pure snow? What model are they looking at?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> Curious, the t.v. goons seem like they see more freezing rain for even north Ga.
> 
> Why do they seem to like this scenario over just pure snow? What model are they looking at?


 
It's a safe hedge bet. They won't get on board until 12 hours out..


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 7, 2011)

61 people viewing this thread! WOW!


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

Just a side note, years ago my parents went sledding down a huge hill after midnight one night and the top layer was ice.  The sled broke thru the crust of ice and tore up my dad's neck.  He about bled to death with that ice cutting him up like that.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Jan 7, 2011)

Ouch! That would stink.

Seems a little to late to hedge. What was funny is I've been telling everyone all week what my forum buddies are saying about this storm and all I've heard was

"Didn't hear about it on the news"

Makes my time spent on this forum validated, even with the boss lady. She says it's my Facebook. I always tell her on this forum, I get to keep my man card!


----------



## fussyray (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Ok, summary before I go brave Wal-Mart and some dinner.
> 
> NAM and GFS look very similar.  Latest GFS gave Augusta / Columbia the bomb of moisture.  GFS still has this warm air aloft that it brings with the heavy precip.  I still don't buy this lock stock and barrel.
> 
> ...



Hey DDD,
How much do you think Acworth-Woodstock around the lake will get? I am off Sun-Wed so let it snow, let it snow.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Jan 7, 2011)

Gatorb said:


> maybe DDD should be the only one allowed to post in this thread (or any of his qualified assistants). keep the drivel crap in your drivel threads...lol



bucking for mod status?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> Ouch! That would stink.
> 
> Seems a little to late to hedge. What was funny is I've been telling everyone all week what my forum buddies are saying about this storm and all I've heard was
> 
> ...


 
Folks that don't know our track record don't understand. They think that the liberal media is the gospel..

As far as the hedge goes, there are still two vital elements that could drastically effect this system. We won't talk about them because we don't want it to all go away suddenly..


----------



## Muddyfoots (Jan 7, 2011)

I pray for rain. Don't want no ice.


----------



## bml (Jan 7, 2011)

For those of us NE of ATL, in the Gainesville/Athens area, are you expecting all snow, or rain first, with snow following???


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Folks that don't know our track record don't understand. They think that the liberal media is the gospel..
> 
> As far as the hedge goes, there are still two vital elements that could drastically effect this system. We won't talk about them because we don't want it to all go away suddenly..


Have another winter weather advisory here tomorrow Hugh. 2-4 more from the Norlun trough. I'll take it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Muddyfoots said:


> I pray for rain. Don't want no ice.


 
I heard that car hoods perform best on ice though..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Resica said:


> Have another winter weather advisory here tomorrow Hugh. 2-4 more from the Norlun trough. I'll take it!


 
Yeah, I like how the locals are saying this will be out of here on Monday then it's over. They aren't saying anything about the system that gonna come through out of the plains just to top off the stuff in N. Ga. with some fresh on Tuesday..


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

bml said:


> For those of us NE of ATL, in the Gainesville/Athens area, are you expecting all snow, or rain first, with snow following???



All snow maybe some sleet but all snow. You should see 7+ by Monday night.


----------



## bml (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> All snow maybe some sleet but all snow. You should see 7+ by Monday night.



Thanks!!

Fox 5 just said that there is no way we will get anywhere near 10" lol.  I appreciate all the time you put into this.


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I like how the locals are saying this will be out of here on Monday then it's over. They aren't saying anything about the system that gonna come through out of the plains just to top off the stuff in N. Ga. with some fresh on Tuesday..


I know. Hope you guys and girls get topped off to the hilt. Looks like your big storm will be here Tuesday or so, bout time, got rooked on the last one when Jersey got 32", we got 6.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Resica said:


> I know. Hope you guys and girls get topped off to the hilt. Looks like your big storm will be here Tuesday or so, bout time, got rooked on the last one when Jersey got 32", we got 6.


 
Our main system is rolling in Sunday night. Tuesday we'll be catching the southern edge of the plains system as it heads your way..


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

It looks like an active couple of weeks ahead!!


----------



## K80 (Jan 7, 2011)

Sorry guys but we have to send this the other way as all three people in my house are coming down with the flu.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

So it is all ice for Warner Robins, no snow chances?  Any chance we can get all snow if the freezing line should dip further down?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> So it is all ice for Warner Robins, no snow chances? Any chance we can get all snow if the freezing line should dip further down?


 
If the freezing line dips it will convert. Who knows at this point exactly where that line will be.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

How far out are we for the models to start giving exact forecasts?


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Jan 7, 2011)

I brag about you guys and your track record. Problem is, everybody in this world is conditioned to be spoonfed what it should know. Nobody wants to look "outside the norm"

Personally, I hope it snows a foot. I'm still a big kid inside and I get all excited when someone says snow.


----------



## DouglasB. (Jan 7, 2011)

Predictions for peachtree city?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

DouglasB. said:


> Predictions for peachtree city?



I would say 4-6"


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 7, 2011)

I'm skeered, somebody hold me pleazzzzzze . . .


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Hooked On Quack said:


> I'm skeered, somebody hold me pleazzzzzze . . .



Depends which one are ya in the Avatar picture...


----------



## TheYeeHawMan (Jan 7, 2011)

The VERY BEST fun for a group of people in a lot of snow is 4-6 people inside one of those plastic kiddie pools, with ky on the bottom of it. We did it in 93 and we had 7 inches in Emerson that year.. It was a blast!!


----------



## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Depends which one are ya in the Avatar picture...



the one to the far right.


----------



## Da Possum (Jan 7, 2011)

Hooked On Quack said:


> I'm skeered, somebody hold me pleazzzzzze . . .



Wanna spoon?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> the one to the far right.



Ok then its safe....


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

hdm03 said:


> Wanna spoon?



What the.......


----------



## bml (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> The VERY BEST fun for a group of people in a lot of snow is 4-6 people inside one of those plastic kiddie pools, with ky on the bottom of it. We did it in 93 and we had 7 inches in Emerson that year.. It was a blast!!



That's a lot of KY.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> The VERY BEST fun for a group of people in a lot of snow is 4-6 people inside one of those plastic kiddie pools, with ky on the bottom of it. We did it in 93 and we had 7 inches in Emerson that year.. It was a blast!!


 
I'm leavin this one alone..


----------



## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Ok then its safe....









today the clouds were pink/purple, i've heard those are "snow" clouds when they are those colors...any truth to that?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

bml said:


> That's a lot of KY.



Different strokes for different folks.  Some people just have alot of that stuff laying around.  

Should I go to kroger tomorrow and buy KY for the snow storm?


----------



## Palmetto (Jan 7, 2011)

I am guessing we are similar to your Athens predictions up here in Clemson, SC?


----------



## Keebs (Jan 7, 2011)

hdm03 said:


> Wanna spoon?





deermeat270 said:


> Ok then its safe....





Crooked Stick said:


> What the.......


 How did ya'll get outta the Driveler Thread??  Git outta here before you get in trouble!! 

Sorry DDD, carry on!!


----------



## bml (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Different strokes for different folks.  Some people just have alot of that stuff laying around.
> 
> Should I go to kroger tomorrow and buy KY for the snow storm?




Perhaps that is a good idea. Walk up to the lady in CVS and tell her you need enough KY to cover the bottom of a pool.


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> The VERY BEST fun for a group of people in a lot of snow is 4-6 people inside one of those plastic kiddie pools, with ky on the bottom of it. We did it in 93 and we had 7 inches in Emerson that year.. It was a blast!!



KY on the bottom INSIDE the pool or outside the pool?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

boneboy96 said:


> KY on the bottom INSIDE the pool or outside the pool?



Good question....Maybe both...we are talking about sledding in the snow storm right?


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> I don't know who Emerson is but this is way too much information for a family friendly forum discussing a snow storm.



once again.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

boneboy96 said:


> KY on the bottom INSIDE the pool or outside the pool?


 
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/5_H-LY4Jb2M?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5_H-LY4Jb2M?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

"Hey yall...watch this" comes to mind.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Dragging thread back to the orginal topic:  Heres what it will look like in my neck of the woods, sunday - tue.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Buford&state=GA&site=FFC&lat=34.117&lon=-83.9986


----------



## TheYeeHawMan (Jan 7, 2011)

Money man said:


> I don't know who Emerson is but this is way too much information for a family friendly forum discussing a snow storm.


 Bwaahahaha.. Just a bunch of teanagers having a good time, We started off using Pam (nonstick spray) and then we ran out so we used vasoline and then we ran out. One of the girls went into her houseand come out with 4 ubes of KY... Why she had didn't cross my mind.


----------



## bml (Jan 7, 2011)

Mellish is now calling for isolated spots up to 7"


----------



## TheYeeHawMan (Jan 7, 2011)

I think I might need to think things thru a little more next time!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

This is some brutal wind we've got. Just recorded a gust over 25 mph....


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> Bwaahahaha.. Just a bunch of teanagers having a good time, We started off using Pam (nonstick spray) and then we ran out so we used vasoline and then we ran out. One of the girls went into her houseand come out with 4 ubes of KY... Why she had didn't cross my mind.



I guess we could say y'all were like a well oiled machine!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This is some brutal wind we've got. Just recorded a gust over 25 mph....



Do you have one of those little weather stations outside?  I want to get one of those.


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> I think I might need to think things thru a little more next time!



Just go post the same thing in the Driveler thread. You'll fit right in.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Do you have one of those little weather stations outside? I want to get one of those.


 
Yes I do. It's rare to see the windchimes blowing sideways.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> Just go post the same thing in the Driveler thread. You'll fit right in.





Grrrrrrrrrr....


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

TheYeeHawMan said:


> Bwaahahaha.. Just a bunch of teanagers having a good time, We started off using Pam (nonstick spray) and then we ran out so we used vasoline and then we ran out. One of the girls went into her houseand come out with 4 ubes of KY... Why she had didn't cross my mind.



 Actually, it sounds like fun. Reminds me of when I was about 18 and I bought an old trihull Galaxy with a 85 hp merc on it and installed a ski pole. We piled three of us on the same innertube while another buddy hit the gas and we would hold on for dear life. I am sure we looked like a midtown festival as we screamed like girls and fell off one by one but man we sure did laugh our tails off. 

However....I need to clarify....no ky was used.

I imagine a bunch of kids in a fast moving kiddie pool would yield similar results. 

OK, sorry...back on topic so ole gatorb don't get his tights in a wad. 

So...DDD, is it going to snow in my backyard?


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

The number is "7"

Over/Under/Push for Winter Weather Threads created before old man winter is done???

I am gonna say Over, as i think we will be on WWT IV before the storm hits


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

Sheesh, my heavy wicker furniture is getting tossed around on the deck like it's balsa wood....


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

Just wait til it starts snowing and someone posts on here-" So how many inches you got?" Let the flood begin


----------



## mountainpass (Jan 7, 2011)

> This is some brutal wind we've got. Just recorded a gust over 25 mph


What part of Georgia do you live in, we just had a gust exactly that speed at 7:20.


----------



## Money man (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sheesh, my heavy wicker furniture is getting tossed around on the deck like it's balsa wood....



The wind has been blowing here all afternoon like crazy too. Hope I don't have to reassemble a basket ball goal when it is all over.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> Just wait til it starts snowing and someone posts on here-" So how many inches you got?" Let the flood begin



.............


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 7, 2011)

It's been crazy windy here too. Sun set with some crazy lookin' pink/purple/black clouds over this way...


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes I do. It's rare to see the windchimes blowing sideways.



Nice...Can you connect to it via your LAN?  I want one.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

CortGirl said:


> It's been crazy windy here too. Sun set with some crazy lookin' pink/purple/black clouds over this way...


 
Woman, I done told you to leave them mushrooms alone..



deermeat270 said:


> Nice...Can you connect to it via your LAN? I want one.


Mine isn't that nice. This Velocity Azimuth is off of Wunderground.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Woman, I done told you to leave them mushrooms alone..



I only picked a few outta the yard, I thought they were the good, uh, safe ones...

So, I'm lookin' at a nasty ice storm headin' this way?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

CortGirl said:


> I only picked a few outta the yard, I thought they were the good, uh, safe ones...
> 
> So, I'm lookin' at a nasty ice storm headin' this way?


 
Unless the models change, you'll be close to the border of snow or ice. Oh, and congratulations on the preggers...


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Unless the models change, you'll be close to the border of snow or ice. Oh, and congratulations on the preggers...



I would love to see snow, but according to the Mr. I could do without the ice.

Thanks, I'm not totally sure we thought the new pregnancy through...our youngest just turned 9 mos old the day after Christmas.


----------



## The AmBASSaDEER (Jan 7, 2011)

marietta, what should I expect?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

CortGirl said:


> I would love to see snow, but according to the Mr. I could do without the ice.
> 
> Thanks, I'm not totally sure we thought the new pregnancy through...our youngest just turned 9 mos old the day after Christmas.


 
Y'all haven't been hanging out in kiddie pools have you?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

The AmBASSaDEER said:


> marietta, what should I expect?


 
Who's Marietta? Is that your pet name for DDD? Wait till I talk to him again..


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all haven't been hanging out in kiddie pools have you?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

When is the next model run?


----------



## spotman (Jan 7, 2011)

Got the firewood stacked high and made the grocery run. Now just waitin' and praying for all snow and NO ice.


----------



## The AmBASSaDEER (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Who's Marietta? Is that your pet name for DDD? Wait till I talk to him again..



Jackwagon


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 7, 2011)

The AmBASSaDEER said:


> marietta, what should I expect?


You'll get about what I get, I will let you know


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

i need maps, i need snow comfort!!  Where in the world is DDD?!?!?!?  What are we paying you for?!?!?!


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> i need maps, i need snow comfort!!  Where in the world is DDD?!?!?!?  What are we paying you for?!?!?!



DDD is out buying supplies for this "THING" that's coming in on us.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD  ...  Where are you?  Models are rolling!


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all haven't been hanging out in kiddie pools have you?



Thank you for the heads up,  I pass it on no response yet...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> i need maps, i need snow comfort!! Where in the world is DDD?!?!?!? What are we paying you for?!?!?!


 
Next model run is the 06Z, that'll be 1am for us. Who wants to host the 06Z party?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Next model run is the 06Z, that'll be 1am for us. Who wants to host the 06Z party?



What about the 0z NAM?


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

My wind chimes are really sounding good tonight!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Next model run is the 06Z, that'll be 1am for us. Who wants to host the 06Z party?



i will be up for it!  I will be pumped after watching LSU get whipped!  Plus i have some New Belgium "2 Below" in honor of the impending snowstorm.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

The NAM is running now....24 hours out so far.

I'll try to post it when it gets done


----------



## contender* (Jan 7, 2011)

boneboy96 said:


> My wind chimes are really sounding good tonight!



Ours are clanging pretty good too...


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Y'all need to calm down.  NAM will not be out until 9:00ish, GFS 11:00ish.

So while we wait...  you guys want to know why you need to be ready?

If you live in the greenish / brownish colored area, your roads will freeze as soon as moisture falls on them.  If it is the other colors it will take high precip rates to pile up on roads.






All of these show the probability of .1 or more ice being attached to surfaces.

















Last one is the probability that you will have more than a 1/4 inch of ice.  This graphic will increase in probability as we get closer to Sunday night.


----------



## cjones (Jan 7, 2011)

This is reeee-donkulous.  I moved away from Iowa to get away from high winds and blowing snowstorms.  First month we were here (last January), we had 4" of snow, now we're getting ready for a winter storm (at least a 'storm' by southern standards ).

Here's a sounding for ATL.  Winds pushing 50kts at 5,000'.  Crazy!


----------



## Crickett (Jan 7, 2011)

Let it snow!!! My kids didn't get to play in the last snow due to my son being sick. He was sick pretty much the whole month of Dec. took 3 antibiotics to finally get rid of the crud. Anyways, he's super excited about this!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Y'all need to calm down.  NAM will not be out until 9:00ish, GFS 11:00ish.
> 
> So while we wait...  you guys want to know why you need to be ready?
> 
> ...



whewwwww!!  i was about to go off the deep end.   Thanks dude!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> We are still 3 days out on this one and I don't think this thread will make it.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

cjones said:


> This is reeee-donkulous.  I moved away from Iowa to get away from high winds and blowing snowstorms.  First month we were here (last January), we had 4" of snow, now we're getting ready for a winter storm (at least a 'storm' by southern standards ).
> 
> Here's a sounding for ATL.  Winds pushing 50kts at 5,000'.  Crazy!



Yep, its how we are going to drop those surface temps so low for what is coming.

Been a long time since we have had the cold air in place like this with the moisture big and riding out of the gulf.

This is 1982.  

Someone said that Fox 5 said we would not have 5 inches???  They are absolutely horrible.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!



Put me down for one.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!



I want one.   I was trying to figure how to make money off of this.  Pulling cars out of ditches Monday selling firewood, selling generators....  I think you got me.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

Just 48 hours or so to go!


----------



## TurkeyKiller12 (Jan 7, 2011)

If all this holds together and comes in before midnight sunday into monday I'll be stuck at work. Just sitting here trying to think of what all I'll need to get together for a day or two being snowed/iced in at work.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!


 I think you'll look good in a pink wife beater than says "DDD is my hero"


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

Fox 5 has lost me after the Christmas storm and this.  I don't trust them anymore.  Channel 2 on the other hand has impressed me.  They are telling it like it is.

Now that DDD is educating us, I'm starting to see the light.


----------



## Buck (Jan 7, 2011)

Nice work DDD!!!  Bad news for me is my Mom is in the hospital and I'm gonna be making several trips to kennestone the next several days.


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Jan 7, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> If this hits like you say, im having "DDD Is My Hero" shirts made!



I am in.   If it does not, I know where I am sending all this extra bread and milk.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

You guys are crazy.  

The NAM has spead this thing up a little.  Next frame will show the mother load.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 7, 2011)

Hmmmmm!!...


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 7, 2011)

I'm just glad I'm getting off work and off the mountain tomorrow.  It's one thing to live on site, but a whole different ballgame to be stuck up here on my days off!
Any word on temps after the storm or that brutal cold that was rumored to be coming in?


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

The NAM hits a homerun for Atlanta.  Not sure on totals yet.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> The NAM hits a homerun for Atlanta.  Not sure on totals yet.



I feel like it's been like that for two days and I don't want to get excited but I can't help it!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Looks to be 5-7" for Atlanta verbatim.  That is 5-7" over a 6 hour period.  Which would translate into one inch of snow an hour.  Do I have to tell anyone what 1" an hour snow fall looks like coming down?  LOL...


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## BBQBOSS (Jan 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think you'll look good in a medium sizepink wife beater than says "DDD is my hero"



there fixed it fer ya


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

The weather channel is really talking this thing up...I cant believe it.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks to be 5-7" for Atlanta verbatim.  That is 5-7" over a 6 hour period.  Which would translate into one inch of snow an hour.  Do I have to tell anyone what 1" an hour snow fall looks like coming down?  LOL...



I've seen it before in Whislter, PA, Montreal.  1" flakes just covering everything...it's impressive.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks to be 5-7" for Atlanta verbatim.  That is 5-7" over a 6 hour period.  Which would translate into one inch of snow an hour.  Do I have to tell anyone what 1" an hour snow fall looks like coming down?  LOL...



I have seen it, but its been about 17 yrs.  Blizzard of '93 in Athens.  I remember watching the pine trees on our property snap in half, snow blowing sideways and real thunder.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

At hour 66 moisture is very heavy headed towards Augusta and down near macon, warm air aloft has rode into town and I pray that it is sleet that is falling and not freezing rain, cause if it is the latter, the powe is gonna be out a while.


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## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks to be 5-7" for Atlanta verbatim.  That is 5-7" over a 6 hour period.  Which would translate into one inch of snow an hour.  Do I have to tell anyone what 1" an hour snow fall looks like coming down?  LOL...



I bet that translates to about 8 - 10 for us a little further up 400.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

I just heard Jim Cantore say this storm could shut Atlanta down! He was fired up!


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## nickel back (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks to be 5-7" for Atlanta verbatim.  That is 5-7" over a 6 hour period.  Which would translate into one inch of snow an hour.  Do I have to tell anyone what 1" an hour snow fall looks like coming down?  LOL...



no do not tell,I want to see it here in Griffin....or are we to far down?


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

about 1pm monday


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## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> I just heard Jim Cantore say this storm could shut Atlanta down! He was fired up!



Yep, i listened to the same thing.  I havent heard him that fired up in a while.  I bet he heads back to Atlanta to cover it.


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

SW Atlanta and West GA seems to win out on this run.  Looks like 8" in Gwinnet... as opposed to 10 inches in Carrol County.  I have a feeling this is going to be an I-20 runner.


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Alright... I am out of here until 11PMish.


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## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Alright... I am out of here until 11PMish.



Noooooooooooooooooooooo....Dont gooooooooooo!


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> SW Atlanta and West GA seems to win out on this run.  Looks like 8" in Gwinnet... as opposed to 10 inches in Carrol County.  I have a feeling this is going to be an I-20 runner.


explain that.


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## Jeff C. (Jan 7, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Yep, i listened to the same thing.  I havent heard him that fired up in a while.  I bet he heads back to Atlanta to cover it.



With only 8 sand trucks and no mention of the # of plows, that won't be to difficult, especially when you figger in the idjit factor


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

Here's one with the counties shown (7 am EST).  Lots of time to go.  We are getting covered up!


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## mountainpass (Jan 7, 2011)

What time does it hit Atlanta? 
I have tickets to the Wild Hog Supper, I do not want to be stranded downtown...with a bunch of politicians....without alcohol.


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## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 98


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

mountainpass said:


> What time does it hit Atlanta?
> I have tickets to the Wild Hog Supper, I do not want to be stranded downtown...with a bunch of politicians....without alcohol.



Based on the latest NAM, it appears you are good until about 10-11pm.  Thats when I start to see frozen precip show up in West GA anyway on the model.  I'm not a MET though.


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

mountainpass said:


> What time does it hit Atlanta?
> I have tickets to the Wild Hog Supper, I do not want to be stranded downtown...with a bunch of politicians....without alcohol.



Emergency bottle sir...  Looks like midnight.


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## JD (Jan 7, 2011)

We have rooms booked, trucks loaded with ice melt, sand and shovels ready to start clearing sidewalks and parking lots of our clients starting around 3:00 am Monday morning. But the way this thing is looking, they won't be anyone showing up to appreciate all the hard work we will be doing. Oh, well should still be fun to see all the snow if this thing holds together.


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

3 hours later...62 hours from now


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> 3 hours later...62 hours from now



It's the storm of all storms for ATL if it verifies.  It's been like this for 3 straight runs.


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## Keebs (Jan 7, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> 3 hours later...62 hours from now


 I'm REALLY liking this, it reaches me way down south!!


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

Yes, this is 3 runs in a row that NAM has put out 7-10" for ATL.  I'm not smart enough to know what it all means but the colors look like metro ATL is all 6-10".


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## JD (Jan 7, 2011)

JD said:


> We have rooms booked, trucks loaded with ice melt, sand and shovels ready to start clearing sidewalks and parking lots of our clients starting around 3:00 am Monday morning. But the way this thing is looking, they won't be anyone showing up to appreciate all the hard work we will be doing. Oh, well should still be fun to see all the snow if this thing holds together.



Not to mention all these empty parking lots are great for doing doughnuts in company vehicles....I mean that's the best way to break down the snow...


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## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

where are you getting those maps.


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## SarahFair (Jan 7, 2011)

So if Im reading this right its 6-10"?


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## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

Like I said in the other winter thread I predicted that there will be a record snowfall this year.Looks like my prediction will be right.Looks like atl will break there record.


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## Rabbit Hunter 101 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> SW Atlanta and West GA seems to win out on this run.  Looks like 8" in Gwinnet... as opposed to 10 inches in Carrol County.  I have a feeling this is going to be an I-20 runner.



Oh boy triple D, you just made my heart skip a beat. I'm one county over... I can't wait!!!!


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

SarahFair said:


> So if Im reading this right its 6-10"?



Yep, based on this run of the NAM Model.  It shows the heavy spot right over Atlanta (about 10").  Its also not even noon yet on the map.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> SW Atlanta and West GA seems to win out on this run.  Looks like 8" in Gwinnet... as opposed to 10 inches in Carrol County.  I have a feeling this is going to be an I-20 runner.





whitetaco02 said:


> explain that.



Sounds pretty self explanatory to me??.............The heaviest snowfall will fall along the I-20 corridor..........I don't know what else you could take away from that??


----------



## cjones (Jan 7, 2011)

Wow.. This could be interesting.  It was 'nothing' to see 6-10" of snow overnight in storms in Iowa, but this will be my first big winter storm in the south since the ice storm of '93 in northwest Alabama.

Maybe I'll finally have time to get the brakes fixed on the Waggy...


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

We have a plastic bedliner out of an F-250 and live on the Coweta Carroll Co. line. Were gonna pull a Clark Griswald with that bad boy on these hills in the pasture! Can fit 2 to 8 souls in there at 1 time to baby.....

Tickets anyone?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> Like I said in the other winter thread I predicted that there will be a record snowfall this year.Looks like my prediction will be right.Looks like atl will break there record.



I could have sworn you made those predictions after DDD made his....


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Sounds pretty self explanatory to me??.............The heaviest snowfall will fall along the I-20 corridor..........I don't know what else you could take away from that??



I was posting on my wife's phone and didn't read all of it.  Thanks I guess...


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD, when you get your own TV show, your entrance music needs to be "All I do is win".


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## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

Naw I have been saying that beginning of winter.I dont remember seeing any predictions of DDD as of record snowfall in a day.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


>


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 7, 2011)

Tag-a-long said:


>


----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

DRB1313 said:


>


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> We have a plastic bedliner out of an F-250 and live on the Coweta Carroll Co. line. Were gonna pull a Clark Griswald with that bad boy on these hills in the pasture! Can fit 2 to 8 souls in there at 1 time to baby.....
> 
> Tickets anyone?


Bring it on Greene.  We have some big lake dams on the watershed that should be fast...


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

*Hey!!!!!!!!!*

y'all mind if I  with ya!


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## mountainpass (Jan 7, 2011)

Glenn Burns is all about the ice.....he's pumped!


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## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

The 11 O'clock run should be coming in shortly.


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

mountainpass said:


> Glenn Burns is all about the ice.....he's pumped!



Glenn Burns...loser...  Oops no personal attacks


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## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> y'all mind if I  with ya!



Not at all


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

GFS running now


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Krisjack, I am not going to tell everyone what the GFS said... the floor is yours...


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Not looking so good now???

CONCERNS FOR WINTER STORM SUN NIGHT-MON REMAIN. EARLIER AFD COVERS
WELL THE GAMUT OF POSSIBILITIES THAT MAY OCCUR. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST INCREASING THREAT FOR -FZRA VS SNOW ACROSS N
GA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH AND MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY
RISE ABOVE 0C WELL INTO N GA. AS NOTED BELOW...ECMWF LESS OMINOUS
AND DYNAMIC...AND MORE OF A SNOW THREAT AS WELL AS SMALLER
ACCUMULATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER
MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST PACKAGES. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PROJECTED WINTER WX SCENARIO. TO SAY THE
LEAST...THERE IS A DEFINITE THREAT FOR WINTER WX LATE SUN-EARLY
TUE...ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE YET TO BE RESOLVED.


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## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD  Now you cant just do that....


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

lol


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Well, just kidding.

This run of the GFS is a major hit for Highway 316 and Athens.

Atlanta looks like 6-8"  Athens verbatim would be about 10"


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> lol


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Krisjack, I am not going to tell everyone what the GFS said... the floor is yours...



Hey let Nostradamus do his thing later. I need to know so I can go to bed!!!!!!!!!


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## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Not looking so good now???
> 
> CONCERNS FOR WINTER STORM SUN NIGHT-MON REMAIN. EARLIER AFD COVERS
> WELL THE GAMUT OF POSSIBILITIES THAT MAY OCCUR. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
> ...



Does this mean cold rain now?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Krisjack, I am not going to tell everyone what the GFS said... the floor is yours...



Triple D, go ahead.  He will just repeat it in WWT IV on tomorrow.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Krisjack, I am not going to tell everyone what the GFS said... the floor is yours...


----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Krisjack, I am not going to tell everyone what the GFS said... the floor is yours...


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

I am going to draw up a map, but everyone needs to understand, this is an unpresidented (did I spell that right?) event.

Yes, it is going to snow, yes it is going to ice and sleet, yes it is going to be all snow in places, 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice in others, a little snow and a LOT of Ice in other places.

It is going to be tricky trying to lay the lines of where and how much.


----------



## Buck (Jan 7, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> Hey let Nostradamus do his thing later. I need to know so I can go to bed!!!!!!!!!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

Here she is.  Weaker amounts in NW Ga than previous runs but NE Ga gets hammered


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 7, 2011)

We are still 48 hours out.  Lets not forget that.  Even though every model run other then the outliers are in pretty good agreement.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Triple D, go ahead.  He will just repeat it in WWT IV on tomorrow.



WT, just for you... I think you are going to be looking at freezing rain that may or may not go over to all rain.  Its going to be really hard to call.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I am going to draw up a map, but everyone needs to understand, this is an unpresidented (did I spell that right?) event.
> 
> Yes, it is going to snow, yes it is going to ice and sleet, yes it is going to be all snow in places, 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice in others, a little snow and a LOT of Ice in other places.
> 
> It is going to be tricky trying to lay the lines of where and how much.



I think unpresidented is when you know who finally leaves office, but go ahead and do your map.  We know what you are talking about!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> WT, just for you... I think you are going to be looking at freezing rain that may or may not go over to all rain.  Its going to be really hard to call.



Ahh man, don't do that to me!  I knew I shouldn't have got my hopes up!


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> I think unpresidented is when you know who finally leaves office, but go ahead and do your map.  We know what you are talking about!



Dang.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

The model forecasts will keep changing as the front comes together.This storm will be felt by many and remembered for a long time.I love weather always have.


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The model forecasts will keep changing as the front comes together.This storm will be felt by many and remembered for a long time.I love weather always have.



Oh Lawd, now he's Socrates.
Hey DDD draw the dadgum map.


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## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The model forecasts will keep changing as the front comes together.This storm will be felt by many and remembered for a long time.I love weather always have.


Front??


----------



## Bnathanb1982 (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The model forecasts will keep changing as the front comes together.This storm will be felt by many and remembered for a long time.I love weather always have.



That rite there is PROfound!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Front??



Well, uhhh, see what had happened was.......


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Ahh man, don't do that to me!  I knew I shouldn't have got my hopes up!



Dude, if Glenn Burns is right, you will have 1.0 inches of ice on everything you own, including limbs, power lines and anything else exposed.

That graphic he showed about ice made me


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 7, 2011)

This thread is better than watching comedy central


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I am going to draw up a map, but everyone needs to understand, this is an unpresidented (did I spell that right?) event.
> 
> Yes, it is going to snow, yes it is going to ice and sleet, yes it is going to be all snow in places, 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice in others, a little snow and a LOT of Ice in other places.
> 
> It is going to be tricky trying to lay the lines of where and how much.



Ken Cook just said sunny and warm for Monday.............


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I am going to draw up a map, but everyone needs to understand, this is an unpresidented (did I spell that right?) event.
> 
> Yes, it is going to snow, yes it is going to ice and sleet, yes it is going to be all snow in places, 1/2 snow and 1/2 ice in others, a little snow and a LOT of Ice in other places.
> 
> It is going to be tricky trying to lay the lines of where and how much.


No ya didn't!!.......But I ain't going to hold it against ya!!

Made some preparations today.......Going to make some more tomorrow!!.............Being without power for few days is not welcome here!!........Being prepared for it will make it easier!!

I'm 30 minutes east of Milledgeville

Thanks for all you do Bro!!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

Sounds to me Glenn Burns needs to go back to Meteorologist 101.


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD- snow, ice, sleet? And where's this dadgum map?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

This is a map I just drew up.  As you can see I left a little out cause we may be looking at freezing rain that may or may not go over to all rain. Its going to be really hard to call.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Dude, if Glenn Burns is right, you will have 1.0 inches of ice on everything you own, including limbs, power lines and anything else exposed.
> 
> That graphic he showed about ice made me



You say he is never right so it looks like flip flops and wife beaters?


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

Stev's son and seth's cousin


----------



## Buck (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Stev's son and seth's cousin


----------



## JD (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Stev's son and seth's cousin


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Let me also say, there is going to be an ice storm for the ages somewhere in S. GA if things go the way they are now.

Maybe I have not stressed this enough?  It is going to be BAD.  Real bad.  I could forsee power not being on for 5 days due to roads, limbs and lines down.

I have concentrated hard on the snow, but the ice is going to be crippling.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> This is a map I just drew up.  As you can see I left a little out cause we may be looking at freezing rain that may or may not go over to all rain. Its going to be really hard to call.



Nice map you got skills!


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Stev's son and seth's cousin


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Stev's son and seth's cousin



OHHHHHHHHHH, I think I gotcha now!


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD,
Im on at the Firehouse Sunday till 8am Monday in Coweta. Looks like a long night for us dont it? What are your predictions for the W. Ga area after the latest runs? Just wanna be prepared and start preparing soon as we go on shift Sunday morning.
Also brother, this is amazing stuff! Thanks for the hard work you and others put into this thread. Its no secret that guys like me who depend on accurate weather predictions to do their job monitor this thread, not just fun seekers. Although when I get off I plan on setting a new land speed downhill record in a plastic bedliner!!!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Nice map you got skills!



Hey, what can I say. lol


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> This is a map I just drew up.  As you can see I left a little out cause we may be looking at freezing rain that may or may not go over to all rain. Its going to be really hard to call.



So Middle GA is in for smoke??


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Hey DDD, how much stock do you put into these maps?


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## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?


----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Stev's son and seth's cousin



No doubt about it!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

doenightmare said:


> So Middle GA is in for smoke??



Yes, that is because of the lynch mob heading to Dacula.


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> DDD,
> Im on at the Firehouse Sunday till 8am Monday in Coweta. Looks like a long night for us dont it? What are your predictions for the W. Ga area after the latest runs? Just wanna be prepared and start preparing soon as we go on shift Sunday morning.
> Also brother, this is amazing stuff! Thanks for the hard work you and others put into this thread. Its no secret that guys like me who depend on accurate weather predictions to do their job monitor this thread, not just fun seekers. Although when I get off I plan on setting a new land speed downhill record in a plastic bedliner!!!



Yeah it will be you know how ppl here in Coweta are they forget all common sense when it rains moreless snow or Icce


----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



sure go for it DDD


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



Stay focused man!  Focused!


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



no. that's my daughters birthday party. Bad enough I may miss 2 days of work!


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## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

leaving my exit to get on the high way, the hotels were full of power trucks....hope they are ready.


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## boneboy96 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



  Please do!


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## fireman401 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



One weekend at a time if you please.....can't stand too much at once!!
DDD, a sincere thank you from myself and others that are following along on this once-in-a-lifetime ride!  We truely appreciate your efforts and insight.


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## MTMiller (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



yea man please do


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Almost midnight!

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 82 (48 members and 34 guests)


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Let me also say, there is going to be an ice storm for the ages somewhere in S. GA if things go the way they are now.
> 
> Maybe I have not stressed this enough?  It is going to be BAD.  Real bad.  I could forsee power not being on for 5 days due to roads, limbs and lines down.
> 
> I have concentrated hard on the snow, but the ice is going to be crippling.


I can see what you are talking about, and it appears that I am in the bullseye for this one!!.........It's going to be bad here...........We've had lesser systems knock the power out for several days!!


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## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> when I get off I plan on setting a new land speed downhill record in a plastic bedliner!!!



careful, those things dont come with breaks or steering.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Both the GFS and NAM have us covered!  The GFS was the one I posted earlier.


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## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

timbuck6200 said:


> Yeah it will be you know how ppl here in Coweta are they forget all common sense when it rains moreless snow or Icce



Oh believe me, I know.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

Sure DDD go for it.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> careful, those things dont come with breaks or steering.



yea but slip it sure is fun


----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Should I even go into the storm and 0 degree temps for next weekend?



Noooooo!!!  We don't even have THIS one on the ground yet!    At this rate I still won't be thawed out or have power by then!!  



ultramag said:


> sure go for it DDD






boneboy96 said:


> Please do!



 



fireman402 said:


> One weekend at a time if you please.....can't stand too much at once!!
> DDD, a sincere thank you from myself and others that are following along on this once-in-a-lifetime ride!  We truely appreciate your efforts and insight.



What HE said!


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> careful, those things dont come with breaks or steering.



Yea I know. AINT IT GREAT!!!

Might throw a grappling hook in there just in case....


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> Oh believe me, I know.



Lets Put that bedliner on thrill hill or the watershed.  Its gonna be fun on the fourwheeler if im not at work...


----------



## rospaw (Jan 7, 2011)

Do i have time to go pee before the map comes up?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

rospaw said:


> Do i have time to go pee before the map comes up?



As long as it is taking you may have time to do something else.


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 7, 2011)

rospaw said:


> Do i have time to go pee before the map comes up?



We told you to go before this thread started, you should have listened.


----------



## jigman (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD  what are you seeing for pike county


----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

rospaw said:


> Do i have time to go pee before the map comes up?



sure ..i did and made it back


----------



## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

nickel back said:


> yea but slip it sure is fun


yeah, but mailboxes suck.



Greene728 said:


> Yea I know. AINT IT GREAT!!!
> 
> Might throw a grappling hook in there just in case....



genius


man now i hope we get _a little bit_ of ice.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

Here is my thinking about what the GFS is smoking.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> yeah, but mailboxes suck.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is my thinking about what the GFS is smoking.



What are you smokin? Where is the zoom tool?


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 7, 2011)

I bet Jim Thompson and Bubba have killed new world records, but we wont know cause we are all in here lol


----------



## Tag-a-long (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> As long as it is taking you may have time to do something else.



Come on dude ... cut the guy some slack!   It ain't like he just whips out the crayolas and construction paper, it takes some time to read and draw up!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is my thinking about what the GFS is smoking.



Dude, that is not funny!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 7, 2011)

The rollar coaster ride this winter sure has been fun.These threads are very informative on current atmospheric conditions.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is my thinking about what the GFS is smoking.



Wheres that darn magnifying glass when I need it?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> I bet Jim Thompson and Bubba have killed new world records, but we wont know cause we are all in here lol



You mean they are still hunting?


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 7, 2011)

Glad someone else asked I was fidgeting with all kinds of buttons wondering what was up with wife's laptop


----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

DRB1313 said:


> What are you smokin? Where is the zoom tool?



I know i am getting old but i cant see it either


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Here is my thinking about what the GFS is smoking.


Would you mind handing out magnifying glasses with that pic??..........Some of us are old, and the eyesight is not so good!!


----------



## slip (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Dude, that is not funny!



it kinda is.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Tag-a-long said:


> Come on dude ... cut the guy some slack!   It ain't like he just whips out the crayolas and construction paper, it takes some time to read and draw up!



I really hope you didn't think I was being serious! 

DDD, knows me better than that!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> You mean they are still hunting?



They were the other day...I dont know I been in here since Tues


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The rollar coaster ride this winter sure has been fun.These threads are very informative on current atmospheric conditions.



Current?


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> it kinda is.



Yep......Teaser


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

Fro1911nut said:


> They were the other day...I dont know I been in here since Tues



lol


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The rollar coaster ride this winter sure has been fun.These threads are very informative on current atmospheric conditions.



Are you Stev's son's Cousin's Father?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

slip said:


> it kinda is.



I know!  I almost spit Diet Mtn Dew on my screen! lol


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)




----------



## ultramag (Jan 7, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Current?



yeah you know..that thing in the oceancome on whitetaco...focus..focus


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 7, 2011)

ultramag said:


> yeah you know..that thing in the oceancome on whitecoat...focus..focus




OHHHHHHHH


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 7, 2011)

Why do those losers in NE Ga always get the good stuff???


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 7, 2011)

DDD said:


>


Thanks!!


----------



## timbuck6200 (Jan 7, 2011)

Calm down SAG    we will get enough..


----------



## Resica (Jan 7, 2011)

Man, you guys have a lot of counties.


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2011)

It's not a perfect map by any means.  Actual soundings start as snow for MBY and then turn me over to sleet or freezing rain around 6 AM Tuesday, I just dont think that will happen.  I don't think its counting the evaporative cooling or the snow it will have laid down before that time frame.


----------



## jonkayak (Jan 8, 2011)

8-12" 

I can live with that.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 8, 2011)

timbuck6200 said:


> Calm down SAG    we will get enough..



Stuff it cuz, I want a foot!!!
That bedliner is wide, and with 3 or 4 folks in it I need a good base to set that land speed record with!


----------



## huntinglady74 (Jan 8, 2011)




----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 8, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> Why do those losers in NE Ga always get the good stuff???



Because that's how we roll.... besides who you calling loser.... loser.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 8, 2011)

I'm happy every time a new map comes out because I just keep being afraid that the whole thing is going to disappear.  I guess it's time for bed.  Looking forward to seeing how many more pages you crazies have for me to read at 6 in the morning.
DDD, I do want to hear about the cold next weekend since you still have an hour before the next model runs


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

ultramag said:


> aww mann..I am haunted by that picture..even on the DDD thread..and i didnt even Kill that little thing..I am seriously going to get Haven



Dang, you got me!  I deleted it but I can always repost it.  See!?


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 8, 2011)

Unicoidawg said:


> Because that's how we roll.... besides who you calling loser.... loser.



We get the tornados and yall get the snow.....Booooooooo!


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Greene, here is why I put what I did on the map.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

The black circled area I think will actually fill in.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Greene, here is why I put what I did on the map.



Gotcha! There still not playing fair though!

Yall do know we will be on WWT 4 by morning right?
SWEET!!!


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 8, 2011)

This just in from the 11 Alive News Team



Only low to moderate accumulations of posts in the Driveler thread since 10:00 yesterday evening.


----------



## jcountry (Jan 8, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> Stuff it cuz, I want a foot!!!
> That bedliner is wide, and with 3 or 4 folks in it I need a good base to set that land speed record with!



You MUST post this one on You Tube...  You are guaranteed to be on Tosh.0 if anyone breaks anything!
-Mad Props!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

Yes we sure do have alot of counties.Alot more then PA.Georgia is the biggest state east of the Mississippi river.


----------



## DRB1313 (Jan 8, 2011)

Thanks for all the updates 3D... You Rock!
I'll be checking back in tomorrow.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD, how much longer till the next model run?


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

This thread is addictive.I gotta go to bed pretty soon.I only gotten about 4 or 5 hours of sleep last nite with my eyes pretty much glued to this thread.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

EURO rolls out in 30 minutes and then I am off the grid for a while.  Still got 48 hours to go.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO rolls out in 30 minutes and then I am off the grid for a while.  Still got 48 hours to go.



Eye lids getting heavy man but I am gonna try to stay up.  What do you expect to see out of this one?  Pretty much what all the others are saying?


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

Dont you think that we will have a better handle on what this storm is going to do this time on Saturday.I wish it would a snow a foot from Albany northward but that isn't going to happen.We may get 1 - 3 inches of snow and the same of ice.Yeah you have a basketball game to go to tomorrow right DDD.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> DDD, how much longer till the next model run?


I think they said 1:00 am


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> I think they said 1:00 am



Yeah, he replied already.  I thought that was it but couldn't remember in all the drivelin'.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

krisjack said:


> Dont you think that we will have a better handle on what this storm is going to do this time on Saturday.I wish it would a foot from Albany northward but that isnt going to happen.We may get 1 - 3 inches of snow and the same of ice.Yeah you have a basketball game to go to tomorrow right DDD.



Dude, you're a trip.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

The EURO nailed Tennessee last run.  Not one run has shown that solution.  The EURO is golden lately in the 3-5 day away slot and then it loses street credit closer to the event.

Something about the EURO sampling when the system gets on shore is wacky.  The GFS, Canadian seem to do well.  The NAM is not bad, but it is not typicaly acurate.  

I expect to see the EURO come right in line with the GFS... maybe colder and wetter.... but we will see.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> The EURO nailed Tennessee last run.  Not one run has shown that solution.  The EURO is golden lately in the 3-5 day away slot and then it loses street credit closer to the event.
> 
> Something about the EURO sampling when the system gets on shore is wacky.  The GFS, Canadian seem to do well.  The NAM is not bad, but it is not typicaly acurate.
> 
> I expect to see the EURO come right in line with the GFS... maybe colder and wetter.... but we will see.



Well, you have my attention.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

The snow and rain line keeps moving up and down.Looks like alot of folks went off to sleep before we see the next model run.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 8, 2011)

krisjack said:


> The snow and rain line keeps moving up and down.Looks like alot of folks when off to sleep before we see the next model run.


And 
I am right on that line!!.........Whatever happens I am prepared for the worst!!.........Thanks DDD for the heads up!!.....We will be prepared


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

alright its nearly 1 and when ddd posts the new info off to sleep I go.I've been using accuweather pro to see the forecast models.Is there any other websites out there that is better.


----------



## biggtruxx (Jan 8, 2011)

noaa.gov, wunderground.com, and a few others


----------



## biggtruxx (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD seems you have a aspiring weather phenom on here with you tonight.


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

Yeah I use those too plus weather.com.noaa.gov forecast model seems you need a magnifying glass to read it.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

EURO is not impressive with moisture amounts.  Gives more like 3-4 inches for Atlanta.

Precip is much lighter even down in south GA.

I am going to bed... nothing huge to report here.  Night!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

Thanks DDD on the update.We should have a better grasp on it tomorrow.


----------



## biggtruxx (Jan 8, 2011)

Night DDD thanks bro. Cant wait til morning to hear the next run!


----------



## Sultan of Slime (Jan 8, 2011)

Ice or snow I plan on putting the kayak to good use!!


----------



## biggtruxx (Jan 8, 2011)

krisjack said:


> We should have a better grasp on it tomorrow.


 

Krisjack..... go start your own weather thread ...... hijacking isnt cool bro.......


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> EURO is not impressive with moisture amounts.  Gives more like 3-4 inches for Atlanta.
> 
> Precip is much lighter even down in south GA.
> 
> I am going to bed... nothing huge to report here.  Night!


Oh well!!........Missing out on a bad  major Ice Storm event is not such a bad thing!!

Going to bed here as well!!.....Good night folks!!


----------



## krisjack (Jan 8, 2011)

Actually I wasn't hijacking.I just meant that we should have a better idea on what this storm is going to do since it will be pretty much the day before it happens.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 8, 2011)

krisjack said:


> Actually I wasn't hijacking.I just meant that we should have a better idea on what this storm is going to do since it will be pretty much the day before it happens.



All input is appreciated in my book.  And for sure we will know more tomorrow when the Euro comes back to the GFS and the NAM. (Wishcasting)


----------



## BBQBOSS (Jan 8, 2011)

it's sad that i woke up to go use the restroom and then couldn't resist popping open the laptop to read 4 pages of the weather thread!   Ok, back to the dream realm...


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 8, 2011)

biggtruxx said:


> DDD seems you have a aspiring weather phenom on here with you tonight.



You mean Nostradamus, Socrates, Magellan, Ken Cook, Glen Burns all rolled in to one???????


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 8, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> it's sad that i woke up to go use the restroom and then couldn't resist popping open the laptop to read 4 pages of the weather thread!   Ok, back to the dream realm...



Guilty also.  Back to bed before heading out for provisions.


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 8, 2011)

OK - just woke up to find that we may be losing snow... 
I am going to back to bed!


----------



## Double-droptine (Jan 8, 2011)

timbuck6200 said:


> Bring it on Greene.  We have some big lake dams on the watershed that should be fast...



I went down the dam of reservoir one in 93 and you got some serious speed by the time you get to the bottom. The baby hills at the high school and thrill hill don't hold a candle to it. The only bad thing is walking back up but the ride down is worth it.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Guys don't freak out.  NAM, GFS and short term Canadian all say we are still on track.  The EURO is the only outlier.

GFS still puts a dry slot over East Alabama and West Georgia.  Still a huge hit for Norcross, Alpharetta, Gainesville, Dacula, Monroe, Winder, Athens running over into South Carolina.

Today is truth day.  This thing will be getting wound up over Texas and it will be much better handled.

More and more I believe south of Macon's power companies need to prepare now for a MAJOR Ice storm.  I am not sure how far south it will stretch but its gonna be a biggie if this holds.


----------



## J HESTER (Jan 8, 2011)

:





HammerG26 said:


> OK - just woke up to find that we may be losing snow...
> I am going to back to bed!


----------



## Robbie101 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Guys don't freak out.  NAM, GFS and short term Canadian all say we are still on track.  The EURO is the only outlier.
> 
> GFS still puts a dry slot over East Alabama and West Georgia.  Still a huge hit for Norcross, Alpharetta, Gainesville, Dacula, Monroe, Winder, Athens running over into South Carolina.
> 
> ...



From what I saw this a.m on the tube, most of the middle Georgia power guys are headed north to the metro area....

Maybe they will send the guys from down around Valdosta, and Cario to the central area...


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 8, 2011)

I have been quoted... 
Let me clarify - when I went to bed last night, we were looking at 8+ inches in the Canton area... that seems to have changed to 6", with the northeast part of GA getting some of our snow... 
That is all I meant - my fault for posting  before having coffee!


----------



## Lee (Jan 8, 2011)

Weather thread newbie.  Thanks for the info and a very entertaining thread!

Y'all have me pumped!  But I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much.


----------



## J HESTER (Jan 8, 2011)

HammerG26 said:


> I have been quoted...
> Let me clarify - when I went to bed last night, we were looking at 8+ inches in the Canton area... that seems to have changed to 6", with the northeast part of GA getting some of our snow...
> That is all I meant - my fault for posting  before having coffee!



No problem just thought i might have missed something.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

So the LPS has lost it's negative tilt from the models I have seen. Not sure what that means, other than moving the warmer temps a little further north, and possibly giving us a little sleet starting out before it turns over to snow. (icy bases make for longer lasting snows)

My biggest questions will be answered today. As DDD said, today is truth day, and the most reliable models will shine. I do hope the Euro isn't the trend de' jour.. I had a dream last night that this whole system turned out to be a huge bust in the 11th hour...


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

National weather service birmingham al
542 am cst sat jan 8 2011

.update...for aviation discussion.

&&

.discussion...

Running well behind this morning...lots to deal with in the
grids. So let`s get right to it.

It`s pretty much a definite that all of central alabama will see
some form of wintry precip on sun/mon...but the question remains
what type(s) will it be and how much. Per most 00z model soundings
precip should begin as snow across the sw late sun mrng/aftn. As
the precip shield spreads ne...it appears to go through several
transitioning phases. By 00z mon...a transition to sleet/frzg rain
is likely across the far se...with this transition line moving nwd
to near a livingston to auburn line by 12z. Moderate snowfall is
expected across the remainder of the forecast area from 00z to 12z
mon. Another transition looks to occur around 12z. Gfs/gfsbufr/nam
profiles indicate that frzg rain and/or sleet will be possible as
far north as the i-20 corridor by 12z...with mostly snow to the
north. Precip then slowly decreases from sw to ne thru the aftn.
By mon night...only light snow will be possible across the north
as precip comes to an end in the south. A few flurries could
linger into tue mrng across the nrn third of the cwa.

Now that we`ve covered the precip type possibilities...let`s move
on to accumulations. The nam continues to be the outlier when it
comes to qpf for the duration of the event. The ecmwf/gfs are
quite a bit lower and seem to be the most consistent over the past
couple of days...therefore will tend to lean more toward these
solutions with this forecast package. Light snow accumulations are
possible sun aftn/evng at the onset...then accumulations of snow
and frzg rain really pick up overnight sun and into mon mrng.
Although the nam is spitting out over an inch of qpf for much of
the area...it keeps the majority of the snow accum to our
north...much like the gfs. However...gfs 850-700 mb frontogenesis
and negative sat equiv pot temp in the layer above are more than
adequate for heavy snow potential across central alabama. after
taking all of this into consideration...believe that a downward
trend in snow amounts area wide and an upward trend in ice accum
across the south is justified at this time. did not want to make any
dramatic changes as anything can still happen...models can still
decide to do some more flip-flopping. For now will go with 3 to 5
inches of snow across the nrn third...1 to 3 across the central
sections and maybe a trace in the se. *As for ice accum...think we
could see up to if not more than 0.25 inch in the se and up to 0.1
inch as far north as bhm. These amounts will most definitely be
adjusted over the next 24 hours as confidence increases in precip
type placement and timing of precip transitions.*Beyond tue...sfc high pressure builds into the region and a much
colder air mass slides swd into the area. Temps will be well below
normal thru thu...with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s. Temps should then begin to moderate thru sat as
sfc winds shift to the se.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

<TABLE class=warnTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR><TD class="nobr taC">I would love to say that the PTC / NWS was the final authority,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but several of us know that they aren't. Otherwise I'd declare victory on this ice storm forecast so far in advance.

By midnight tonight the model runs will be doing this snow storm justice. 

I'm going to my kids soccor game then gonna do some chores around the house. I'll check back in on it at Midnight to see the truth..


Winter Storm Watch
</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; WIDTH: 50%"></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><!-- Expires 7:00 PM EST on January 10, 2011
 -->Statement as of 5:09 AM EST on January 08, 2011

... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday evening
through Monday evening for north and central Georgia... 

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday evening
through Monday evening for north and central Georgia.

At this time... precipitation will begin as all snow Sunday evening
and remain predominantly snow through early Monday morning. Monday
morning... areas from Carrollton to the Metro area to Athens and
southward will transition to a freezing rain and sleet
mix with this encompassing a further northward area by the
afternoon. Areas in the north Georgia mountains however should
remain predominately snow. This snow... freezing rain and sleet
mix will create a dangerous situation for area roadways. With the
transition from snow to freezing rain and sleet this will limit
snowfall accumulations to 3 to 5 inches.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

NAM is running and guys on the MET forum are saying its trending colder....


----------



## LIGHTNING (Jan 8, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> NAM is running and guys on the MET forum are saying its trending colder....


 
Can you post a link to the MET forum?


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

LIGHTNING said:


> Can you post a link to the MET forum?



I personally would not suggest doing this.  But that's just my opinion.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD, do you believe Thomson, Ga is in the big hit zone??? Sorry for backyard question.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> I personally would not suggest doing this. But that's just my opinion.


 
Y'all would be better off going to the Political or Spiritual Discussion forums and trying to debate what you feel are the facts. You will get shredded on the Met site if you mis-speak one simple word.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 8, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> We get the tornados and yall get the snow.....Booooooooo!



Hey now...... we have had our share of those twisty things as well........


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> I personally would not suggest doing this.  But that's just my opinion.



Last thing they need is drivel in their forum.


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 8, 2011)

What is MET anyways??????


----------



## marknga (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Last thing they need is drivel in their forum.



Lord knows we have enough drivel here....


----------



## LIGHTNING (Jan 8, 2011)

Don't want to post just want to read


----------



## Crooked Stick (Jan 8, 2011)

marknga said:


> Lord knows we have enough drivel here....


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So the LPS has lost it's negative tilt from the models I have seen. Not sure what that means, other than moving the warmer temps a little further north, and possibly giving us a little sleet starting out before it turns over to snow. (icy bases make for longer lasting snows)
> 
> My biggest questions will be answered today. As DDD said, today is truth day, and the most reliable models will shine. I do hope the Euro isn't the trend de' jour.. I had a dream last night that this whole system turned out to be a huge bust in the 11th hour...



It's still there I think!!  







The 12z looks like it's holding the 850 line further south which is good for us in N. GA but holds with DDD's thinking about the ice and the location of it. 






Looks like another good run for us


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

Kent Frantz Senior Lead Meteorologist for NWS-FFC says on TWC 5 inches for Atlanta and 5-7+ North or the City and 1-3 for Macon with much more severe threat of icing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

I expect this to change, to our advantage by midnight.


----------



## ultramag (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Sunday night.



Be nice today whitetaco ...no more pictures of Ultramag and small deer today...focus on the storm


----------



## Sweetwater (Jan 8, 2011)

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 93


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I expect this to change, to our advantage by midnight.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> I personally would not suggest doing this.  But that's just my opinion.



I will respect DDD's opinion and not post any outside links on his thread.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

I heard the forecast just changed to all rain.















































































Just kidding....


----------



## marknga (Jan 8, 2011)

Now wunderground is showing Monday's high (Warner Robins) to be in the lower 40's. Earlier it had the high in the mid 30's. 
Lots of questions to be answered yet.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

The NAM has been very consistent for Atlanta to Tennessee (in snow amounts) the last several runs.  The latest run still shows good accumulations.  Hope the NAM nails it this time.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

ultramag said:


> Be nice today whitetaco ...no more pictures of Ultramag and small deer today...focus on the storm


----------



## ultramag (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


>



thought you would like that


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I expect this to change, to our advantage by midnight.



precip has been predicted lower on other storms this year so hopefully you are correct and we'll see more moisture at midnight tonight when the models get a better handle on this thing.


----------



## WickedKwik (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Nam



I dont like that one


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Nam



According to that, all of the ATL metro area will be ice.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> i know.



not good.....


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

After that NAM run, im going to the garage and starting the chain saw.  Looks like I may be clearing the road and property.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Nam



This is when the snow changes to ice pellets or sleet after noon on Monday.  Most of the snow would have fallen by then and be on the ground.  Thats why snow thicknesses are being predicted lower by lots of folks.  When it changes over is the big question and up in the air at this point.  Depends on which model you believe and nobody knows which one will nail it (if any) at this point.


----------



## grizzlyblake (Jan 8, 2011)

I'm guessing the ice will mean power outages in the Canton area. I just moved into a house without a fire place. Great.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

marknga said:


> Now wunderground is showing Monday's high (Warner Robins) to be in the lower 40's. Earlier it had the high in the mid 30's.
> Lots of questions to be answered yet.


 
Let me try and shed a little light to the middle ga folks that are currently forecast to be on or below the freezing line. 1) forecasting borderline areas is impossible. 2) factors such as evaporational cooling and low elevation pooling cannot be forecast.

In brief, if you live in a lower elevation in that area temps will be cooler, add in good cloud cover and evaporational cooling and you could have your own micro environment ice storm where 5 miles away they only have a cold rain.

Not to be rude, but constantly asking "will I get ice IMBY" won't help you. We don't know. There are just too many variables that will effect what you get in your back yard when you live in an area that is going to be on the edge of the freezing temps.

Next point of discussion. There are some new members to the weather threads (both Severe Thunderstorm and Winter Weather). Putting these threads in the Campfire Forum is for the benefit of the masses, thus it is open to light hearted discussion, campfire banter and what some would consider "drivel". This makes it a fun place to visit as many of us personally know each other and jabs and banter are fun in lulls between model runs. Were we to put these threads in the "On Topic" forum two things would change: 1) most folks don't visit or pay attention to the on topic forums, so important information (life saving in some cases) would be missed by the large majority of the membership. 2) if we were to do that, restrictions would be requested that if you don't understand a map, and the accompanying statistical data that you should be looking at to back it up, the don't copy and paste it in there. 

So as you see, keeping these threads in the campfire has an overall benefit to the masses and yet keeps it light hearted enough to enjoy during lulls in activity. If you don't like reading friendly banter among friends I suggest you stay in the Sports Forum or Deer hunting forum or wherever it is you spend most of your time. 

In so much as copy and pasting maps go, it would be nice if you guys would look at accompanying data to see if it is really worthwhile posting every map you come across showing favorable conditions for your area, or simply being patient and waiting a couple of runs to see more congruency in the different model runs to make a more valuable post concerning the topic. This was a huge problem during the STS period, even to the point that I am considering not even running that thread when Tornado season arrives.

Let's just all take a deep breath, enjoy the information as you see it, and have fun in the interim with the light hearted banter. Nothing is more confusing to the general viewing membership than to see 16 different maps showing 10 different opinions.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

The next system of interest in the short term has the potential to
be a major winter storm and those with interests in the cwa...and
southeast in general...need to monitor the situation. An upper level
low sweeping across the southwest conus on saturday will track
eastward with a 1003mb sfc low developing saturday night in eastern
mexico/southern texas. Gfs/ecmwf/nam/sref were in good agreement
that precip would start across the area sunday afternoon but 00z nam
and gfs are slower than model run last night. There is more of an
indication now that the event will start sunday evening...except for
the sref and the ecmwf that still hint at precip starting sunday
afternoon...with moisture spreading across the cwa from west to
east. nam/gfs bufr soundings for various points across the cwa show
the event starting as snow across north and parts of central
georgia with a rain/sleet/snow mix across the southern portion of
the cwa. By late monday morning into the afternoon there will be a
transition to freezing rain across the metro area with snow in the
northern third of the cwa....freezing rain/sleet across the middle
third and rain/sleet across the southern third. Later in the day
and overnight....the freezing rain will advance slightly northward
and the rain/sleet mix across the southern portion of the cwa will
change to all rain. see the latest winter storm watch /wswffc/ for
more details. This may need to be upgraded to a warning for parts
of the cwa with the afternoon package. Since some
snow/sleet/freezing rain may continue overnight on monday...watch
may need to be extended when it is upgraded to a warning. Keep in
mind...although there is good agreement between the models...any
deviation in track or temperatures will impact precipitation type
and snowfall/ice accumulations.

Long term /monday night through friday/...
Aforementioned sfc low will shift to the atlantic by tuesday
morning pulling the bulk of the moisture with it. Some snow
showers may linger across portions of north georgia...mainly the
mountains as another sfc low tracks across the tennessee/ohio
valley and tuesday. Wrap around moisture may allow for light snow
showers to continues across this area through tuesday night. Sfc
high pressure builds again across the central conus on wednesday
and shifts to the southeast by thursday night. This will keep the
remainder of the long term dry.


----------



## Naturegirl (Jan 8, 2011)

I just want to say thanks for all the info here.  I have read every page, every post.  I have learned a lot and understand there are a lot of variables.  

We're gonna get something, how ugly it is depends on what's happening in your back yard.  However; none of it looks pretty.  Just do what you need to do to be prepared.  

Thanks everyone!!


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

This is the latest prediction from James Spann, a meteorologist out of Alabama.  This is from his blog - updated 9:13 this morning.  Its just a prediction from one person.  Does not mean it will be what we get but this is what he sees based on his education and experience.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> This is the latest prediction from James Spann, a meteorologist out of Alabama. This is from his blog - updated 9:13 this morning.


 
James Spann is one of the best Severe Weather Meteorologist in the Southeast. I would bet my paycheck on his opinion.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

Man I hope that snow line near Macon drops down about 50 miles.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

Before STS season arrives, and as a benefit to all, if you are truly interested in Severe Thunderstorm activity I urge you to attend one of the classes and become a Spotter. It will greatly enhance your understanding of the prediction process and heighten your education regarding tornadic weather, plus it will put you in the NWS network so you can report ground truth on conditions where you are. It will go a long way in streamlining the amount of errant posts we get during that season.

I am only interjecting this now because the NWS does not offer these classes during STS season. 

*Spotter Classes*​[FONT=ARIAL,HELVETICA,FUTURA]January through March 15th period is time of the year spotter classes are normally presented. Occasionally, a second season of classes is conducted during the September to November time frame. Below are the classes already on the calendar for 2011. If you or your group would like to participate in spotter training, please contact the Emergency Management Agency of your county about your interest. 

[/FONT]
*January 2011*

*Jackson County*
January 10, 2011 at 7:00 p.m.
Location: Fire Training Center 64 Fowler Drive
Jefferson, GA 30549
P.O.C. Steve Nichols (706) 367-5202
*Banks County*
January 11, 2011 at 6:00 p.m.
Location: TBD
P.O.C. Deidra Moore (706) 677-3163
*Barrow County*
January 12, 2011 at 6:00 p.m.     
Location: TBD
P.O.C. Jimmy Terrell (770) 307-3488


----------



## texwilliams (Jan 8, 2011)

Below is an update from Alan Huffman which is a Met. that DDD refers to and seems to respect.  As you can see this is a recent update.  I will also try to post his latest map.

Update on southeast winter storm
January 8th, 2011 10:37 am ET.

Although there are still plenty of details to be worked out, the models are starting to come into pretty good agreement on the track and evolution of our storm system over the next few days and on where the heaviest areas of precipitation may line up. Precipitation type forecasts remain challenging however.

I have posted a new accumulation map this morning, and I will monitor to see if I need to make more changes between now and tomorrow afternoon. The models have come into fairly good agreement that we will see a moderately strong area of low pressure move to near the mouth of the Mississippi by Sunday evening and then move E and steadily weaken through Tuesday morning. As it move east however it will maintain a decent tap of gulf moisture and a band of 0.75 to 1.25 inches of QPF will move from northern and central Mississippi through northern Alabama and the northern half of GA, extreme southwest TN, upstate SC and southwest and southern NC. However as the system weakens the amounts will lessen as it move NE towards central and eastern NC with a general 0.4 to 0.75 inches of QPF more likely in those areas. Most models more or less agree with this especially when you take into account that the more coarse resolution global models are not going to pick up the mesoscale features that  will shape the precip areas. The 12z NAM has also now trended towards the other guidance especially in holding a bit more precip further to the NE towards central and eastern NC.

So what does it mean? A cold high pressure over the northern plains is going to continually push low level cold air into the area prior to and during the event meaning that even as temperatures warm aloft in some areas the surface will remain cold enough for ice. The areas that stand the best chance of significant snow, 4-8 inches worth, will be from northern Mississippi through northern Alabama, northern Georgia, southwest TN, NW SC, and southern parts of NC. This is because the storm system will be stronger as it passes south of those areas meaning stronger precip rates will keep going. Atlanta is on the border between a heavy snowfall and a lighter snowfall with severe ice. It could be a situation where northern sections of the city see heavy snow and southern sections see lighter snow but severe icing problems. I think the mountains of N Georgia could be the big winners with potentially 10 inches falling there if everything comes together right.

In upstate SC and the southern mountains, foothills and piedmont of NC, it will be a battle against a strengthening warm nose aloft. Areas that receive the bulk of their precip before this warm nose comes in will certainly get into the 4-8 inches range and perhaps more. However, there will probably be some areas in my 4-8 range that see less but severe ice.  Just south of this area, there will be an area that receives some snow but severe ice. These areas could see 0.75 inches at least of freezing rain which could obviously be bad. This will include central Georgia into central SC.

In central and eastern NC lesser QPF 0.4 to 0.75 will mean a less severe storm, however it appears that there will be some snow at the beginning perhaps a couple inches worth  but then perhaps 0.25 to 0.5 inches of freezing rain which will cause major travel problems and perhaps some power issues. I am more concerned about ice in the Triangle then significant snow.  The timing looks to be light snow into the Triangle by Monday afternoon and evening with a change to freezing rain overnight and into Tuesday morning. The precip should end by Tuesday afternoon.

I will watch the 12z GFS and the other global models and post an update this afternoon or evening.

I will monitor the models


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> James Spann is one of the best Severe Weather Meteorologist in the Southeast. I would bet my paycheck on his opinion.



Ok, I'll take it; your paycheck that is.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

This may be the most important part of Spann's Blog:

"The main impact of this storm will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Monday. Travel across North nad Central Alabama will become difficult, if not impossible at some point Sunday night.

As always, stay tuned for changes as the storm begins to develop and finally gets on the board so we can take a look.  "


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

texwilliams said:


> Below is an update from Alan Huffman which is a Met. that DDD refers to and seems to respect.


 
Yes, he is the other one. Seems we are bordered by states with good Mets. Georgia got the short end of the stick, even in our own NWS. Surrounding states NWS are much more,,,,,,,umm,,,,,,,human in nature.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Tomorrow I am going to start a thread in the on topic section.  There is so many conversations going at once, I want to have a thread tomorrow that is just observations and weather maps and blogs from people who have good sorces or have a map to post that has relevance to the topic.

I am getting a lot of PM's from people saying, can you just tell me this or that.  I think my maps are getting lost in the pages of the threads, along with other people who have posted maps or information they have picked up off of other websites.

As far as weather forums on the internet, I can tell you what Miguel was aluding to earlier.  If you go to one of those forums and they realize you have no clue what you are talking about or ask how much in my back yard, they will black list you in a heart beat.  

That being said, this run of the GFS is a HUGE hit for EVERYONE north of Macon.  I mean, Atlanta gets blasted as well as Athens.

Verbatim at first glance looks like 10" in Atlanta and about the same over to Athens.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Ok, I'll take it; your paycheck that is.


 
This week it was zero. Should I send you a written check to that amount or would you simply like an IOU?


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Tomorrow I am going to start a thread in the on topic section.  There is so many conversations going at once, I want to have a thread tomorrow that is just observations and weather maps and blogs from people who have good sorces or have a map to post that has relevance to the topic.
> 
> I am getting a lot of PM's from people saying, can you just tell me this or that.  I think my maps are getting lost in the pages of the threads, along with other people who have posted maps or information they have picked up off of other websites.
> 
> ...



   We'll see yall tonight for the 0z runs.  Here's hoping the 12z runs trends keep up.


----------



## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

Wow GFS finally closed up that huge gap in NE Alabama and NW Georgia!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Before STS season arrives, and as a benefit to all, if you are truly interested in Severe Thunderstorm activity I urge you to attend one of the classes and become a Spotter. It will greatly enhance your understanding of the prediction process and heighten your education regarding tornadic weather, plus it will put you in the NWS network so you can report ground truth on conditions where you are. It will go a long way in streamlining the amount of errant posts we get during that season.
> 
> I am only interjecting this now because the NWS does not offer these classes during STS season.
> 
> ...



Are these classes subject to change due to inclement weather conditions   I would like to go to the Jackson Cty one, but im pretty sure it will be canceled.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Let me correct my GFS totals.  Would be 8" from Atlanta to Athens.  Also the hole closed up some in West GA and Alabama but not as much as Atlanta gets.  I was just looking at the data maps when I said the statement above.  

Now looking at the precip total map for the GFS it is a little dry there still, but they still look to get 4-6"


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This week it was zero. Should I send you a written check to that amount or would you simply like an IOU?



We can wait until it says much more than zero and mail it then!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Also, on the back side of the precip it will turn over to freezing rain, so I suggest, if you are planning on letting the kids play in it, get out there early before the freezing rain sets in, because it is going to incase the snow.  

Like a chocolate dipped cone at DQ  

Has OFH looked at this thread?  Does she know not to get on I-75 after midnight Sunday? 

The DOT of GA is about to get tested like no other time since 1982.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

This is just a guess and someone correct me if I am wrong....Tonight around 11PM we should have a pretty good idea of exactly what is going to happen. +/- a couple inches or sleet/freezing rain.  Correct?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Tomorrow I am going to start a thread in the on topic section.  There is so many conversations going at once, I want to have a thread tomorrow that is just observations and weather maps and blogs from people who have good sorces or have a map to post that has relevance to the topic.
> 
> I am getting a lot of PM's from people saying, can you just tell me this or that.  I think my maps are getting lost in the pages of the threads, along with other people who have posted maps or information they have picked up off of other websites.
> 
> ...



Good idea....I want to participate.  I can update conditions between sugar hill and cumming, about a mile from the lake.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> This is just a guess and someone correct me if I am wrong....Tonight around 11PM we should have a pretty good idea of exactly what is going to happen. +/- a couple inches or sleet/freezing rain.  Correct?



That is correct.

I would say there are two unknowns at this point.

1.  Where does the Freezing Rain (ICE) line stop in South Georgia and just become all rain.

2.  Where does the line begin and end in the North with all snow vs. Freezing Rain sleet event.

Those are the 2 big questions in my mind.

You might could say

3.  How much is in my back yard, but that question will only be answered on Tuesday.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 8, 2011)

Bout time for a thread 4...


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Any snowplows in Atlanta?


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Any snowplows in Atlanta?



I think i saw that they had 8.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Any snowplows in Atlanta?



We got a few but not near enough for the back roads and subdivisions. 6 inches would pretty much paralyze the city.


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> I think i saw that they had 8.


Those 8 plows are going to be very tired before too long.



doenightmare said:


> We got a few but not near enough for the back roads and subdivisions. 6 inches would pretty much paralyze the city.



Sorry to hear that. Even up here, where they have plenty of plows, some of the side streets in the city don't get plowed for weeks.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Those 8 plows are going to be very tired before too long.
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to hear that. Even up here, where they have plenty of plows, some of the side streets in the city don't get plowed for weeks.



Never understood how people could get to the bars and liquor store when it snows - but say it's far to dangerous to get to work....


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

doenightmare said:


> Never understood how people could get to the bars and liquor store when it snows - but say it's far to dangerous to get to work....



It's a miracle.


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Do you know if they pre-treat roads down there before a storm? I see where N.Y. state mixes beet juice with their brine solution, guess it works.


----------



## Nate23 (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Do you know if they pre-treat roads down there before a storm. I see where N.Y. state mixes beet juice with their brine solution, guess it works.



Doubtful - I would imagine they will sand/salt/gravel the overpasses early on Sunday.


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Do you know if they pre-treat roads down there before a storm? I see where N.Y. state mixes beet juice with their brine solution, guess it works.



They will spread a little salt and sand on interstates -especially on the bridges. They will try and hit some of the major surface streets too.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 8, 2011)

So who is going to try and make it to work come Monday morning COME HECK OR HIGH SNOW I am.Aint no way I'm giving up one of my pto days for a little ice and snow..I think the buckshot mudders can get me there...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> Are these classes subject to change due to inclement weather conditions  I would like to go to the Jackson Cty one, but im pretty sure it will be canceled.


 
You need to direct that question to Steve Nichols.


----------



## cjones (Jan 8, 2011)

I just got back from a trip to Wal-Mart.  Other than the typical root-canal type of experience I get EVERY time I go to Wal-Mart, things were mostly tame.  Bread and milk were still readily available.  No end-caps full of ice scrapers, washer fluid, cheap snowsleds or anything.  What's the deal?!  Are people completely oblivious about what's coming, or are they just waiting until it starts happening so they can make a last minute run to the store with a stop-over in a roadside ditch?


----------



## Crstabel (Jan 8, 2011)

WALMART hasn't even had GLOVES since before Christmas --- they're getting worthless for seasonal stuff!!! I'm going to Target later to get the kiddie some snow pants, then hitting the local farm supply for a sled and some rock salt for the porches... got my beenie weenies& chips yesterday, and my momma has a kerosene heater, we'll camp there. We took the necessary precautions early I hope... i've been stalking.... <0-0>


----------



## Cowdog07 (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You need to direct that question to Steve Nichols.



 The Jackson County Skywarn class has been cancelled and will be rescheduled for a later date according to email on friday


----------



## The AmBASSaDEER (Jan 8, 2011)

How long will it take to fer all this to melt?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

The AmBASSaDEER said:


> How long will it take to fer all this to melt?


 
If it hits the way we have been discussing in the backroom (yes, we have a back room...) you may not see your office until wednesday or thursday..if your lucky


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If it hits the way we have been discussing in the backroom (yes, we have a back room...) you may not see your office until wednesday or thursday..if your lucky



When is the next model run?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

deermeat270 said:


> When is the next model run?


 
http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-library/1336-get-to-know-the-weather-models

*The GFS (Global Forecast System):*
The GFS is a global computer model run by the National Weather Service
(NOAA/NCEP). The model is run 4 times a day (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) and
produces data/charts out to 384 hours (16 days). The model has a
resolution of T574 (a spectral model) or roughly 28km through the
first 192 hours of the run. After that point, the GFS is run at a
coarser resolution of T190 or roughly 84km grid spacing. It has 64
vertical layers.

*The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System):*
The GEFS is a GFS-based suite of models run by the National Weather
Service. The GEFS consists of 20 individual models run using the GFS
for initial conditions - though each "member" has slightly different
starting conditions. The GEFS is run 4 times a day (00z, 06z, 12, 18z)
and like the parent GFS operational model produces data/charts out to
384 hours (16 days). The GEFS is run at a T190 resolution with 28
vertical layers.

*The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts):*
The ECMWF (also referred to as the EC/ECM/"Euro") is a global computer
model run by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.
The model is run twice daily (00z, 12z) and produces data out to 240
hours (10 days). The ECMWF has a resolution of T1279 or approximately
16km spacing. The model has 91 vertical layers.

*The ECMWF ENS (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
Ensemble Forecast System):*

The ECMWF ENS is a ECMWF-based suite of models run by the ECMWF. The
EC ENS consists of 50 members. The EC ENS is run twice daily (00z and
12z). The ensemble product is run out to 384 hours. The ensemble
members have a horizontal resolution of T639 (32km) through day 10 and
T319 (63 km) afterward. They have a vertical resolution of 62 levels.
The ensemble is a set of 51 separate forecasts made by the same
computer model, all started from the same initial time. The starting
conditions for each member of the ensemble are slightly different.

*The (G)GEM (Global Enivonmental Multiscale):*
The GGEM is a global computer model run twice daily (00z and 12z) by
the Canadian Meteorlogical Centre (CMC). The model is run to 240 hours
on the 00z run and 144 hours on the 12z run. On Sundays, the model is
run to 360 hours on the 00z cycle. The GEM has a resolution of
approximately 33km. It has 58 vertical layers.

*The UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorological Office):*
The UKMET is a global computer model run 4 times daily (00z, 06z, 12z,
18z) by the United Kingdom Met Office. The 00z and 12z runs produce
data out to 144 hours. The 06z and 18z produce data to 60 hours. The
UKMET has a horizontal resolution of 25km. It has 70 vertical layers.

*The NAM (North American Mesoscale):*
The NAM model is a regional mesoscale forecast model run by the
National Weather Service (NOAA/NCEP). It is run 4 times daily (00z,
06z, 12z, 18z). The NAM has a horizontal resolution of 12km and has 60
vertical layers. Data is produced out to 84 hours in 3 hourly
increments. The NAM now uses the WRF modeling infrastructure. Various
versions of the NAM are run at different resolutions across the CONUS.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Jan 8, 2011)

Can we start talking about the storm coming on the Jan. 16-18 time frame yet?


----------



## crackerdave (Jan 8, 2011)

Looks like it's gonna be a long,icy winter.If it weren't so dang crowded with yankees,I might consider fleeing southwards!


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 8, 2011)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Can we start talking about the storm coming on the Jan. 16-18 time frame yet?


No


----------



## Lee (Jan 8, 2011)

Great thread guys!  Thanks for the information and learning a little along the way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Can we start talking about the storm coming on the Jan. 16-18 time frame yet?


 
Soon..


----------



## HammerG26 (Jan 8, 2011)

I know most of the models were run about an hour ago (1:00 PM EST) - trouble is, I am not sure how to read them... is there an "easy" tutorial out there or can someone offer some quick advice?


----------



## doenightmare (Jan 8, 2011)

Mig - I am feeling a little Jonsey. I need the most recent map.........


----------



## JD (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If it hits the way we have been discussing in the backroom (yes, we have a back room...) you may not see your office until wednesday or thursday..if your lucky



Hugh, that's what I am worried about...looks like I will be going in tomorrow night to stay in a hotel near some of our properties so we can have sidewalks and parking areas clean by 7:00 am. I may not be able to make it home for a couple of days...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

JD said:


> Hugh, that's what I am worried about...looks like I will be going in tomorrow night to stay in a hotel near some of our properties so we can have sidewalks and parking areas clean by 7:00 am. I may not be able to make it home for a couple of days...


 
You will be wasting your time. Tell the property managers to learn how to run a snow shovel and spread bags of salt. Concrete doesn't fall under the contract of landscaping.. I have three other companies I do work for and they all have warned their properties that they will not be there until the roads are deemed safe for travel by the DOT.


----------



## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Need a snowblower? Just finished doing a little snowblowing and now it's snowing hard again, thought it was over.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 8, 2011)

JD said:


> Hugh, that's what I am worried about...looks like I will be going in tomorrow night to stay in a hotel near some of our properties so we can have sidewalks and parking areas clean by 7:00 am. I may not be able to make it home for a couple of days...



Have fun cuttin those donuts   Hopefully it'll be mostly snow where yall are


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

Resica said:


> Need a snowblower? Just finished doing a little snowblowing and now it's snowing hard again, thought it was over.


 
You didn't get the 2011 updated Murphy's Law books did you?


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## JD (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You will be wasting your time. Tell the property managers to learn how to run a snow shovel and spread bags of salt. Concrete doesn't fall under the contract of landscaping.. I have three other companies I do work for and they all have warned their properties that they will not be there until the roads are deemed safe for travel by the DOT.



Actually, it is expected by some of our clients and one of the big ones it will soon be in the contract...but I feel the same as you if this is coming down like you all are saying (in the back room) we aren't going to be able to shovel fast enough...


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## JD (Jan 8, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Have fun cuttin those donuts   Hopefully it'll be mostly snow where yall are



I will be running (sliding) around the Alpharetta area near Old Milton and North Point...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

JD said:


> Actually, it is expected by some of our clients and one of the big ones it will soon be in the contract...but I feel the same as you if this is coming down like you all are saying (in the back room) we aren't going to be able to shovel fast enough...


 
Not to mention that it will be a hazard for your guys. It's not like their tenants are going to need to get outside to get to their cars to go anywhere. But then again, that sect of business operates on an unusually skewed concept of reality.


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## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You didn't get the 2011 updated Murphy's Law books did you?



No!


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 8, 2011)

so when is the next update scheduled? 5:00 or 6:00?


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## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

NAM (18z) is running right now. However, this thing is moving all over the place and the models are not all in agreement.  The general concensus is the forecast will not be solid until all the 0z models run later tonight.  At that point, hopefully all of them will align enough for a more accurate forecast for the Atlanta area.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

Crooked Stick said:


> so when is the next update scheduled? 5:00 or 6:00?


 
http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=5668663&postcount=935

If you have trouble converting UTC / Zulu time to EST / Romeo time then look here:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 8, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> NAM (18z) is running right now. However, this thing is moving all over the place and the models are not all in agreement.  The general concensus is the forecast will not be solid until all the 0z models run later tonight.  At that point, hopefully all of them will align enough for a more accurate forecast for the Atlanta area.



Yeah some stuff shows it moving way north.  I don't buy it, I think it's going to be mostly W-E movement.  But I don't know much so I'm keeping my mouth shut from now on.


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## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

NAM shows big hit for NW Ga.  I'll post it in a minute.  Want it to run through 48 hrs. first.


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## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

Keep in mind Atlanta (EST) time is 5 hrs. behind UTC (Zulu) Time


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## Crooked Stick (Jan 8, 2011)

Thanks Miguel. Keep up the good work


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## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

48 hrs. from now based on NAM Model


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## WickedKwik (Jan 8, 2011)

Looks like it is losing some moisture


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## BROWNING7WSM (Jan 8, 2011)

WickedKwik said:


> Looks like it is losing some moisture



hope it loses all of it


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## Resica (Jan 8, 2011)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> hope it loses all of it



Buzz Kill!!


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## bigox911 (Jan 8, 2011)

Well here is what the NWS in Peachtree City is thinkin


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## timbuck6200 (Jan 8, 2011)

Ok watching TWC now.  I wonder what kind of Mickey Mouse stuff they are gonna say.


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## timbuck6200 (Jan 8, 2011)

Ok I get more info from here about the snow than I did watching that. 
 This thread is so much better


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## marknga (Jan 8, 2011)

000
fxus62 kffc 082108
afdffc

area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
408 pm est sat jan 8 2011.short term /tonight through monday night/...
Late weekend winter storm still the big weather story. Surface
feature over the southern great lakes will shift off the new england
coast by early sunday morning. Strong northwest flow aloft will
usher cold arctic air into the southeast as surface high axis
extends into the region. Low pressure system moves out over the
northeastern gulf by sunday afternoon...and tracks across south
georgia through monday afternoon. This impending system has the
potential to be a major winter weather hazard...and those with
interests in the forecast area should monitor the situation. The
latest model runs show initial precipitation moving into western
georgia 00z...which is slightly slower than previous runs.  Modeled
soundings support initial precipitation to be in the form of
snow...with a mix of rain...sleet...and snow across the southern
cwa. As the low pressure system moves across the southern portion of
the state...southerly flow will pull warmer air up into the cwa.
With slightly warmer air aloft monday morning...precipitation will
switch to a sleet mix...then primarily freezing rain across much of
the metro area. The lower third of the cwa will see a mix of
freezing rain and rain...and the northern third will primarily see
snow through monday morning...transitioning to a sleet/snow mix by
afternoon. The transitioning precip will keep accumulations
lower...with the far south and southeastern cwa seeing less than an
inch of accumulation...1 to 3 inches south of the metro area...3 to
5 inches across the metro atl area...and 5-7 inches north of the
metro area. Isolated higher amounts may be possible in the northeast
georgia mountains. See the latest winter storm watch /wswffc/ for
additional information. Although models seem fairly consistent at
this time...any deviations in the track forecast or atmospheric
temperatures could result in changes in precipitation type and
accumulation amounts.

Any sleet/freezing rain/rain that falls on top of snow accumulations
will result in icy conditions. With temperatures near freezing
monday...and below freezing tuesday morning...conditions will be
slow to improve. This storm has the potential to be very
dangerous...especially for transportation. Please make preparations
now to avoid roadways after the onset of the storm.

.long term /tuesday through saturday/...
Low pressure system exits over the south atlantic bight by early
tuesday morning...with wrap around moisture keeping the potential
for light snow across north and eastern georgia through tuesday.
Little to no accumulations are expected tuesday.

Surface high pressure shifts extends down from the midwest into the
southeast behind the low pressure system. High centered over the
eastern seaboard by friday...and is pushed off over the atlantic by
developing low that drops over the northern great lakes by mid
weekend. For now...a dry extended period is in store...with high
temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s.

31

&&

.fire weather...
Although fuels have dried to near critical levels today...rh and
winds are forecasted to remain above critical thresholds sunday.
With low pressure bringing in winter weather sunday evening and into
monday...do not expect critical fire weather conditions through
early week.


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## whitetaco02 (Jan 8, 2011)

I give up!!!


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## marknga (Jan 8, 2011)

Significant winter storm possible for sun night and
monday.

For the period sun through tuesday.a stronger winter storm
is expected to impact all of no. Ga. Low pressure is
expected to develop over the western gulf of mexico sunday
morning & shift east through late sunday. Ahead of this
system.a cold & dry airmass will be in place.setting the
stage for a winter storm locally sun night through monday
evening. Precipitation will end by tues afternoon except for
lingering snow across the no. Ga mountains.

It should be emphasized that this event remains 24 hrs out and
that minor deviations in the storm track or temp profiles
could result in more or less winter impacts across the area.
Please pay close attention to the latest updates from this office
and local media outlets through the weekend on this developing
winter storm.

Gaz001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>049-052>055-057-090430-
/o.con.kffc.ws.a.0001.110110t0000z-110111t0000z/
dade-walker-catoosa-whitfield-murray-fannin-gilmer-union-towns-
chattooga-gordon-pickens-dawson-lumpkin-white-floyd-bartow-
cherokee-forsyth-hall-banks-jackson-madison-polk-paulding-cobb-
north fulton-gwinnett-barrow-clarke-oconee-oglethorpe-haralson-
carroll-douglas-south fulton-dekalb-rockdale-walton-newton-morgan-
heard-coweta-fayette-clayton-henry-
including the cities of.calhoun.dahlonega.cleveland.
Rome.cartersville.gainesville.marietta.atlanta.
Lawrenceville.athens.carrollton.douglasville.east point.
Decatur.conyers.covington.newnan.peachtree city
319 pm est sat jan 8 2011

winter storm watch remains in effect from sun evening
through mon evening for no. & cntl ga.

A winter storm watch remains in effect from sun evening
through mon evening.

At this time.precipitation will begin as all snow sunday
evening & remain predominantly snow through early monday
morning. Mon morning.areas from carrollton to the metro area
to athens & southward will transition to a freezing rain and
sleet mix with this encompassing a further northward area by the
afternoon. Areas in the no. Ga mtns however should
remain predominately snow. This snow.freezing rain & sleet
mix will create a dangerous situation for area roadways. With the
transition from snow to freezing rain & sleet this will limit
snowfall accumulations to 3 to 5 inches no. Of a line from
newnan.to jackson to warrenton. Snowfall accumulations of 5 to
7 inches are possible along & no. Of a line generally from
rome.to gainesville.to hartwell. Isolated higher amounts may
be possible in the ne ga mountains.

Precautionary/preparedness actions.

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow.sleet.or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

gaz039-050-051-056-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-090430-
/o.con.kffc.ws.a.0001.110110t0000z-110111t0000z/
wilkes-greene-taliaferro-spalding-butts-jasper-putnam-hancock-
warren-troup-meriwether-pike-upson-lamar-monroe-jones-baldwin-
wa-glascock-jefferson-harris-talbot-taylor-crawford-bibb-
twiggs-wilkinson-johnson-emanuel-muscogee-chattahoochee-marion-
schley-macon-peach-houston-bleckley-laurens-treutlen-stewart-
webster-sumter-dooly-crisp-pulaski-wilcox-dodge-telfair-wheeler-
montgomery-toombs-
including the cities of.griffin.milledgeville.macon.
Swainsboro.columbus.warner robins.dublin.lumpkin.
Americus.cordele.vidalia
319 pm est sat jan 8 2011

winter storm watch remains in effect from sun evening
through mon evening no. & cntl ga.

A winter storm watch remains in effect from sun evening
through mon evening.

Although the precipitation may start as a mix of rain.snow and
sleet sun evening.it will quickly transition over to a mix
of freezing rain & sleet. Depending on how quickly this
transition occurs.areas so. Of a lagrange to jackson to
warrenton line could receive up to 1 to 3 inches of snow and
sleet accumulation through early monday.with the lwr amounts
across the americus to eastman area. Some ice accumulation across
cntl ga may be possible although uncertainty in the
forecast remains. By mon afternoon the precipitation should
transition mainly to rain.

Precautionary/preparedness actions.

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow.sleet.or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


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## Nitram4891 (Jan 8, 2011)

Not looking forward to a possible 3-5 inches of snow then the rest as freezing rain.  That would cripple the city.


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## NCHillbilly (Jan 8, 2011)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> hope it loses all of it



x1000. I'm already sick of this crap. It's been nothing but one snow after another here for the last month. We had about four-six more inches today, on top of the several inches from yesterday. It's still snowing right now. The foot and a half from the last one was just getting melted off.  I live in one of those magical spots where the wrap-around snow from every storm lasts about three days. I feel like I went to sleep and woke up in Minnesota. I'm ready for spring.


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## elfiii (Jan 8, 2011)

Nitram4891 said:


> Not looking forward to a possible 3-5 inches of snow then the rest as freezing rain.  That would cripple the city.





I might have to slip back down to Costco and buy that generator after all. Power lines are going to be snapping all over the ATL.


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## jcountry (Jan 8, 2011)

elfiii said:


> I might have to slip back down to Costco and buy that generator after all. Power lines are going to be snapping all over the ATL.



Yeah, man-

Might be a good idea.  My generator has saved my bacon before during times like this.  The last ice storm that came thru here was pretty minor, but I did find out that I am at the end of the EMC line, and it took 3 days to get power back!


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## DEERFU (Jan 8, 2011)

elfiii said:


> I might have to slip back down to Costco and buy that generator after all. Power lines are going to be snapping all over the ATL.



Not a bad idea at all!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

elfiii said:


> I might have to slip back down to Costco and buy that generator after all. Power lines are going to be snapping all over the ATL.


 
Procrastinate much??


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## MTMiller (Jan 8, 2011)

Well the GFS (18z) just rolled out.  It appears to have less moisture, especially NE Alabama and NW Georgia.  The yellows (6"+ snow) have disappeared except for extreme NE Georgia.

It will be interesting to see the 0z models later.  Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.


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## BROWNING7WSM (Jan 8, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Well the GFS (18z) just rolled out.  It appears to have less moisture, especially NE Alabama and NW Georgia.  The yellows (6"+ snow) have disappeared except for extreme NE Georgia.
> 
> It will be interesting to see the 0z models later.  Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.



Good deal.


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## AM1 (Jan 8, 2011)

Didn't DDD say that the models did this exact same thing at about the exact same time before the Christmas storm? They suddenly show weakening and 12-18 hrs later, resume their earlier,stronger predictions?


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## bml (Jan 8, 2011)

How would the weather gurus compare this to the 1993 storm??


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2011)

MTMiller said:


> Well the GFS (18z) just rolled out. It appears to have less moisture, especially NE Alabama and NW Georgia. The yellows (6"+ snow) have disappeared except for extreme NE Georgia.
> 
> It will be interesting to see the 0z models later. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.


 
Hopefully the 00Z will be better, but with trends in the last two runs I don't think we'll see favorable congruency among models until the 12Z or 18Z runs tomorrow. At this point the exact strength and scope of the LPS will be known and hopefully they'll take the convection block out of the equation.


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## DDD (Jan 8, 2011)

Po Po, please shut this down.

Ya'll go look at #4


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## Buck (Jan 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Po Po, please shut this down.
> 
> Ya'll go look at #4



http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=595519


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