# ***2011 & Jan. 2012 Severe Weather Thread III***



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2011)

Well it figures after a crazy winter series of threads that we'd have three SW threads. Hopefully they'll be dying off in a month or so and we can turn this gig back over to DDD to start his snow dances.


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## david w. (Sep 5, 2011)

Looks like it getting quiet out there miguel.


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## biggtruxx (Sep 5, 2011)

We lost power here in Monroe on my side of town for about a hour and a half or so. Other than a tree falling across a powerline.... Nothing to speak of yet...... We havent even had a lot of rain yet. I hope to get a lot more of the wet stuff because we need it!


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## DDD (Sep 5, 2011)

Cow + Flat Rock here... knocked my satelite out.


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## GoldDot40 (Sep 5, 2011)

Supposedly, we had a tornado right on top of us (NW Oglethorpe Co) today at about 5:30.....according to the NWS as well as Fox 5 and WSBTV. All I saw was a LOT of rain (same rock and cow here), a lot of lightning & thunder, and a little wind. I've seen a lot worse without any tornado warnings.

Dang sure wish we coulda got a little more rain out of this.


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## krisjack (Sep 5, 2011)

Well it didnt get to bad here.There was a severe thunderstorm that was pretty good with pretty strong winds.There were periods of heavy rain for about 5 to 10 mins I would say each.Prolly got about 2 inches today I would guess.I dont know where Nic lives but I never really heard of any thunder here really.I saw some lightning earlier but it was a ways off.Looks like now what is going to be great is the nice cool down.Been waiting awhile for that.Amazing that a tropical system will do that for us.It is odd for a tropical system to have lightning like this and irene had.


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## NGa.MtnHunter (Sep 5, 2011)

No storms here today, just heavy rain & wind, we've got 9 3/4 inches of rain so far.


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## Sugar Plum (Sep 6, 2011)

3:30, the baby is sound asleep, and I'm checkin' the weather...geez. 

Sure is mighty windy outside!


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## jmfauver (Sep 6, 2011)

I barley got anything...It rained for under 20 minutes total in 2 days...


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

I think we got half a inch.


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## jmfauver (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> I think we got half a inch.



I doubt I got that much....Oh well,at least it was North so the lake will get filled up....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> I think we got half a inch.


Just can't make you happy can we? 

On a brighter note. Us folks in the northern part of Jawja can expect this cold front to push on through and bring us lows in the 50's and highs for most of this week in the 70's. 

Heck yeah man!!! I'll take that all day long!!!


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## shakey gizzard (Sep 6, 2011)

Ended up with.40 but lows in the 50'sLanier still needs rain!


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

Ended up with "maybe" 1/2 an inch.............. and an oak tree down in the back yard, HUGE oak tree, ok, HALF an old, huge oak tree, the other half fell last year, this side wasn't as rotten as the other and the wind was "just right" and over she went.  Thankfully, nothing damaged in the process!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

Keebs said:


> Ended up with "maybe" 1/2 an inch.............. and an oak tree down in the back yard, HUGE oak tree, ok, HALF an old, huge oak tree, the other half fell last year, this side wasn't as rotten as the other and the wind was "just right" and over she went.  Thankfully, nothing damaged in the process!


Lots of free firewood!!


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lots of free firewood!!


 you volunteering to come help?!?!? 
Oh yeah, PLENTY of fire wood, now just to get it cut up!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

Keebs said:


> you volunteering to come help?!?!?
> Oh yeah, PLENTY of fire wood, now just to get it cut up!


Sure!!! I'll be happy to haul everything I cut back home with me..


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sure!!! I'll be happy to haul everything I cut back home with me..


Ya know, we might could work a deal on that if you're serious!


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## mudracing101 (Sep 6, 2011)

Free firewood at Keebs


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

mudracing101 said:


> Free firewood at Keebs


 Are you CRAZY???? Did you not read about the 16 yr old that sent out the invitation to her BD party & forgot to mark it "private" and had a Gazillion folks show up?????????  We have about 1/2 that amount as members here, I will have your head if they start showing up to cut this tree up!











Now, if YOU want to come HELP.......... we can talk .............


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## mudracing101 (Sep 6, 2011)

Keebs said:


> Are you CRAZY???? Did you not read about the 16 yr old that sent out the invitation to her BD party & forgot to mark it "private" and had a Gazillion folks show up?????????  We have about 1/2 that amount as members here, I will have your head if they start showing up to cut this tree up!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You want the tree up or not?


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

mudracing101 said:


> You want the tree up or not?


Well *DUH* but I'd like to have SOME firewood out of it for myself!!


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## Money man (Sep 6, 2011)

I think I still have Keebs address around here somewhere. What kind of wood is it? I have a couple of forums I can post it on.


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

Money man said:


> I think I still have Keebs address around here somewhere. What kind of wood is it? I have a couple of forums I can post it on.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

Gonna be firepit weather this week Keebs, you better get to cuttin. 
Here's the Fitzbecca forecast for this week.

 		 Today






 		83 °F 		
 		Chance of Rain20% chance of precipitation


 		 		Tonight





 		58 °F 		
 		Partly Cloudy

 		 		Tomorrow





 		79 °F 		
 		Partly Cloudy

 		 		Thursday





 		85 | 61 °F 		
 		Partly Cloudy

 		 		Friday





 		85 | 63 °F 		
 		Partly Cloudy

 		 		Saturday





 		86 | 63 °F 		
 		Partly Cloudy


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## Nicodemus (Sep 6, 2011)

Hey Hugh, we got 2 and 6/10ths here at the house as of this mornin`. And this weather has me ready to start prowlin` in the swamp.


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Can we PRETTY please keep these temps?


It feels great outside right now.


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just can't make you happy can we?
> 
> On a brighter note. Us folks in the northern part of Jawja can expect this cold front to push on through and bring us lows in the 50's and highs for most of this week in the 70's.
> 
> Heck yeah man!!! I'll take that all day long!!!



NO!I wanted at least a inch.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Hey Hugh, we got 2 and 6/10ths here at the house as of this mornin`. And this weather has me ready to start prowlin` in the swamp.





david w. said:


> Can we PRETTY please keep these temps?
> 
> 
> It feels great outside right now.


You boys don't get too giddy just yet. Summer ain't over yet.


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## mudracing101 (Sep 6, 2011)

Keebs said:


> Well *DUH* but I'd like to have SOME firewood out of it for myself!!


Just jokin, pm me when , i'll try to come help 


Money man said:


> I think I still have Keebs address around here somewhere. What kind of wood is it? I have a couple of forums I can post it on.


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## Keebs (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gonna be firepit weather this week Keebs, you better get to cuttin.
> Here's the Fitzbecca forecast for this week.
> 
> Today
> ...






david w. said:


> Can we PRETTY please keep these temps?
> 
> 
> It feels great outside right now.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> You boys don't get too giddy just yet. Summer ain't over yet.





mudracing101 said:


> Just jokin, pm me when , i'll try to come help


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## SGADawg (Sep 6, 2011)

Totaled less than 0.7" here in north Coffee Co., but I'm glad of every drop.  Just wish we had gotten a LOT more.  Really liked the temp this am though.


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## Sugar Plum (Sep 6, 2011)

Hey- I'll take a week of cooler temps to break up the heat some. 

We had a HUGE limb fall down into the yard where the kids play. Nothing else happened though.


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## elfiii (Sep 6, 2011)

Reckon you could arrange 55 degrees Sat am in West GA?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

elfiii said:


> Reckon you could arrange 55 degrees Sat am in West GA?



Is 60 close enough?

<table class="posRel" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead id="fct_hourlybar"><tr><th class="hrLink">Hourly Forecast</th> 		<th class="hrTime">6AM</th> 		<th class="hrTime">12 Noon</th> 		<th class="hrTime">6PM</th> 		<th class="hrTime">12 Midnight</th> 		</tr> 		</thead> 		<tbody id="fct_hourlydetails"> 		<tr class="hrFirstRow"> 		<td class="hrType">Temp. | <dfn data-term="Dew Point">Dew Point</dfn></td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">60 | 58</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">72 | 59</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">76 | 60</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">67 | 60</td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType">Wind</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">1 mph NW</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">4 mph NNW</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">5 mph NW</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">2 mph WNW</td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType"><dfn>Humidity</dfn></td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">91%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">65%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">58%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">78%</td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType">Chance of Precip.</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">10%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">10% </td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">10%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">10%</td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType">Cloud Cover</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">45%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">32%</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">32% </td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">44% </td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType">Conditions</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">Partly Cloudy</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">Partly Cloudy</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">Partly Cloudy</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep">Partly Cloudy</td> 		</tr> 		<tr> 		<td class="hrType">Sunrise & Sunset</td> 		<td class="hrData cellSep" colspan="4"> 		
</td></tr></tbody></table>7:19 AM
7:53 PM


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2011)

12Z European model develops a LPS in the southern Gulf of Mexico and brings it into Mobile Saturday / Sunday and straight into Georgia with EXCELLENT rain totals.

The EURO handled Lee the best of all the models.  

The GFS takes it to Mexico.


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## bml (Sep 6, 2011)

DDD said:


> 12Z European model develops a LPS in the southern Gulf of Mexico and brings it into Mobile Saturday / Sunday and straight into Georgia with EXCELLENT rain totals.
> 
> The EURO handled Lee the best of all the models.
> 
> The GFS takes it to Mexico.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

I'm liking this baby myself..


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## bml (Sep 6, 2011)

Texas sure could use the rain from a tropical system, but I wont complain if we get it!!


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Great more tornados.\

I rather keep these nice temps.
Yeah,I know messican.Im hard to please.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> Yeah,I know messican.Im hard to please.


Like a woman...


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Like a woman...





U till my favorite messican though.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> U till my favorite messican though.


How bout roundin' me up a green card then..


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How bout roundin' me up a green card then..



Bud,I been tellin you.All you gotta do is say you'll vote for obama and BAM,There it is.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> Bud,I been tellin you.All you gotta do is say you'll vote for obama and BAM,There it is.


I'd rather eat earthworm sushi first..


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## shakey gizzard (Sep 6, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gonna be firepit weather this week Keebs, you better get to cuttin.
> Here's the Fitzbecca forecast for this week.
> 
> Today
> ...



Burn ban still on until oct 1


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

So now the Canadian says, I would like to have what the EURO is smoking.  Rain maker #2 Inbound.

This is currently Invest 96.  It would be here Monday.


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

And the EURO...


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## Keebs (Sep 7, 2011)

shakey gizzard said:


> Burn ban still on until oct 1


 not when it's in a fire pit............. in the country............ in the middle of nowhere..............


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2011)

I rather like the gfs 00z run for the 13th that keeps that disturbance in the Bay of Campeche for the next week or so until it just fizzles out...


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

NAM brings it North as well.  The only outlier is now the GFS.  CMC, EURO, NAM... all in the bring it north camp.

Hugh, you really have to stop rellying on the GooFuS.


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

I trust NOAA as well.  Monday or Tuesday, all seed might not be lost.


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

Went down to the hunting property this past weekend to check out our new "clear cut".  Pulp wood guys have been in and done their thing.  They did not clear out any trees that were not damaged by the tornado.  Boy did she cut a path.  Camera does not do it justice.

This was from the outbreak on April 27th.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Hugh, you really have to stop rellying on the GooFuS.


Why? It was the only one telling us that we weren't going to get a gazillion inches of rain in Ga. from Lee.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2011)

Like I said. 
The reason? Again the contributor to where and why is a stationary high pressure ridge. It's just not a friend to tropical systems and can either tear them apart by interjecting cool dry air, or create a barrier they don't wish to cross, as evidenced in this case.


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## DDD (Sep 8, 2011)

Maybe now I can get you to believe in Santa Clause too... Your beloved GFS says... ooops... I am headed to Mississippi. 
6Z GooFuS:


















Canadian has not backed off one bit.


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## DDD (Sep 8, 2011)

Timing is way off and the GFS is playing catch up.  The GFS does not handle data very well that far south.  It's why the EURO model and the Canadian model has been much more reliable.  They pull in data on a bigger picture platform.  The GFS is a North American model only and has data problems when information extends outside it's zones.  The same thing happens in winter time, LPS dives down from Alaska, around California and as soon as it crosses into Mexico the GFS loses the handle, then as it exits, the GFS picks up on whats going on.

As you can see the GFS takes the LPS inland on Tuesday in accordance with the Canadian and EURO model.  The difference is the GFS takes the LPS down the GOM coast into the pandhandle and headed to the Atlantic at a SNAILS pace.  The EURO and CMC take the system on a very similar track to that of LEE except it's more East than Lee.

Time will tell, but if I was a betting man right now, as I was yesterday, I would go with the EURO and the CMC.


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## rjcruiser (Sep 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Time will tell, but if I was a betting man right now, as I was yesterday, I would go with the EURO and the CMC.



Hope it comes a little further east.

We got hardly a drop over the weekend.  I'd say 1/2" to an inch max.  Would love to see a couple of inches fall.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2011)

ddd said:


> canadian has not backed off one bit.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2011)

Unless something drastic changes Nate is history for any US landfall and Maria should recurve back out into the atlantic. Maria is the one to watch until something more favorable develops.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2011)

This loop doesn't show much promise of much moisture over the next 8 days or so for us. Hopefully something will change.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/...NTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


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## Greene728 (Sep 18, 2011)

MC,
The talking heads are calling for some beneficial rains this week. What say you? Sure hope so cause we sure could use it!


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## DDD (Sep 19, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> MC,
> The talking heads are calling for some beneficial rains this week. What say you? Sure hope so cause we sure could use it!



There is no high totals of rain coming this week, but the pattern is unsettled.  

We should get some showers in there this afternoon into tonight, then another chance Thursday - Friday, that looks to have more thunder in it than what we will get tonight.

Then next week a VERY dry pattern looks to set up.  High pressure is not our friend.  I would say that Hurricane season is shot.  I think the mountains will be in the 40's by Saturday night.  

I don't see us getting more than .5-1" before Thursday.  However, NW GA will see the most rain of anyone.  The folks up on the TN border will have the best chance at the most rain.  

We are in "transition" Fall is here boys... it's just starting to set up shop.


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## marknga (Sep 19, 2011)

DDD.... needing a favor. My daughter is getting married Saturday night "outside" at 7:00pm.... we don't need no rain falling at that time. So if you could go ahead get this stuff in and get it out before then that would be greatly appreciated.


Get this weekend over and then I can think about getting on with some deer hunting.


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## Greene728 (Sep 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> There is no high totals of rain coming this week, but the pattern is unsettled.
> 
> We should get some showers in there this afternoon into tonight, then another chance Thursday - Friday, that looks to have more thunder in it than what we will get tonight.
> 
> ...



Thanks DDD.
BTW, why do you say hurricane3 season is shot. HP blocking anything that could be headed our way?


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## DDD (Sep 19, 2011)

marknga said:


> DDD.... needing a favor. My daughter is getting married Saturday night "outside" at 7:00pm.... we don't need no rain falling at that time. So if you could go ahead get this stuff in and get it out before then that would be greatly appreciated.
> 
> 
> Get this weekend over and then I can think about getting on with some deer hunting.



Dude, she could not have picked a better day!!!    (At least the way it looks right now)  The rehearsal might get pushed inside though.  

Prayers sent for your wallet.


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## DDD (Sep 19, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> Thanks DDD.
> BTW, why do you say hurricane3 season is shot. HP blocking anything that could be headed our way?



Great Question.

High pressure over Canada is going to keep everything squished south.  

Also, one of the things I start looking for is Bowling balls up over Alaska / Canada like the one pictured here.  This tells me the pattern is on the shift.

This one will ride the jet down through the Ohio Valley, but as the weeks go on, the HPS in Canada will slowly start pushing that Jet south ward and all that will do is drive these bowling balls southward.  

Between the HPS and the bowling balls the disturbances off the coast of Africa will get sheered apart.

The only way we could get one on the back side is for it to develop way down south below the Dominican Republic or in the Southern Gulf.  It then might be able to slide around the HPS influence and come into the gulf where the water is still warm.

Chances of all that happening are not very good.  Bring on Fall!


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## deermeat270 (Sep 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> Great Question.
> 
> High pressure over Canada is going to keep everything squished south.
> 
> ...



I think you should start a winter weather thread.  How many inches do you think I will get in my backyard this winter?


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## DDD (Sep 19, 2011)

rain looks good on radar... if it will just hold together... which it probably won't


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## marknga (Sep 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> Dude, she could not have picked a better day!!!    (At least the way it looks right now)  The rehearsal might get pushed inside though.
> 
> Prayers sent for your wallet.



Thanks.... 
The prayers are appreciated ...... as they help heal the broken and believe me my wallet is broke.


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## Greene728 (Sep 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> Great Question.
> 
> High pressure over Canada is going to keep everything squished south.
> 
> ...





Thanks a bunch DDD!
 Always enjoy learning from you guys. And if the winter weather brings some precipitation, BRING IT!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 20, 2011)

Fantasy storm (because we're talking about three weeks out). However, that being said, the Farmers Almanac predicted mid October tropical activity, and it isn't entirely unusual for it to happen. 

The bowling balls DDD was speaking of are certainly a typical occurrence for a normal winter pattern, but typical hasn't been the status quo over the last couple of years. Without cluttering the explaination too much, increased sunspots and cme activity seems to definitely effect the AO and NAO and generate more LPS activity in the SE. Add to that late season tropical activity and it could get interesting later on.


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## Greene728 (Sep 20, 2011)

Man we are getting a great steady soaking rain right now! Thank you Lord, its much appreciated!


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## david w. (Sep 20, 2011)

Yes sir!I love it.


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## david w. (Sep 21, 2011)

Still raining here.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 21, 2011)

david w. said:


> Still raining here.



im with ya, i had nice steady rain all night long.


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## DDD (Sep 21, 2011)

Rain is going to continue today through Friday.  It will come and go. 

If you have outdoor plans, the best thing to do is look at the radar and see what's coming.  

This is a little different set up, in that, the moisture is coming out of the gulf and it simply rides up on inpulses that are centered around a stationary piece of weak low pressure.  It's too bad that it is going to move out tomorrow but will be replaced by some more unsettled weather through Friday night.  

Saturday looks to be down right nice.


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## marknga (Sep 21, 2011)

Nice Saturday is what we need.


Rain between now and Friday evening is a ok.


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## DDD (Sep 22, 2011)

We must not be living right on the East side of the state... West side of the state is getting pounded with good rain.


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## Greene728 (Sep 22, 2011)

Its been raining here in West Coweta pretty well all afternoon and evening. We have had between 1.5-2in easily. Still a nice steady rain as I type!!!


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## GA DAWG (Sep 22, 2011)

Man. Yall ain't never seen rain like we had here this evening. 4" on the nose. Happened fast to. Water running everywhere. Running in places Id never saw it before. I don't know how the creek didn't flood. Atleast it ain't yet.


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## david w. (Sep 22, 2011)

Been raining for two days here.


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## DDD (Sep 23, 2011)

Last batch of rain is moving through the west side of the state headed east.  Try and get all you can out of it because we will not see rain in here for a while after this.  

At least 7 days of dry.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 23, 2011)

Im on the west side and yes it has done some raining. Last night alone we had 1 ¾ â€œof rain and a total of 2 ¼ since Wednesday. We planted food plots 2 weeks ago in heard co. I talked with a friend this morning that lives just about 5 miles from my club and he said itâ€™s rained 3 days in a row down their â€¦.thank goodness!!


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## blood on the ground (Sep 23, 2011)

FYI all you severe weather peps... storm chasers on the discovery chan will be covering the April 27 tornado outbreak.  sunday 9/25/ 9pm


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## slip (Sep 23, 2011)

All in all we got two inches out of this little 3 days deal ... worked out good.


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## Hardwoods (Sep 23, 2011)

slip said:


> All in all we got two inches out of this little 3 days deal ... worked out good.



We got two here as well... but it was two tenths not two inches. Some is better than none I guess.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 23, 2011)

Should be one last thin like come through from the NW as the cooler air pushes down and squeezes out the last bit of moisture. Nothing to amount to much, but moisture still the same.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 24, 2011)

Might be a slight chance of a shower on Monday afternoon or night for extreme north Ga. as a lps moves across the great lakes area. Percentages around midstate are about 30% and go up the further north you move to around 40% or so in extreme N. Ga.

I wouldn't expect anything much out of this as it sweeps through.


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## DDD (Sep 24, 2011)

RH values look the best Tuesday afternoon.  LPS moves through the central part of Illinois and Ohio.  It drags through and drags a weak front through the area.

As Miguel said, North GA has the best chance of some rain.


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## slip (Sep 25, 2011)

88°F
Feels Like: 89°


I thought you weather guys fixed this?


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## GA DAWG (Sep 25, 2011)

When's it gonna snow?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2011)

Just as long as these cells die down a little bit before they get to us. This is the current radar in west central Miss.


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## DDD (Sep 25, 2011)

System is faster and stronger than first thought.  NWS in PTC is getting more agressive with their forecast.  I am not surprised.  I was surprised by the humidity and heat we experienced today.

MS has had tornados tonight.  Jim Cantore is tweeting that multiple tornados have touched down in various towns in MS.

Wording from the NWS and looking at cape values, especially down south of Macon, I do believe South of Macon might could get one to pop down there.  North of Macon I think we could have some severe storms with Hail as the NWS points out in their disco tonight.  

Miguel, I hope you are able to work the board tomorrow... I am going to be hit and miss tomorrow.




> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> 1038 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011
> 
> ...


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## david w. (Sep 25, 2011)

We had a good one pop up today.Thundering,lightning and raining like cazy.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Sep 25, 2011)

david w. said:


> We had a good one pop up today.Thundering,lightning and raining like cazy.


It was a mess on I-20 between Buckhead, and the Siloam Union Point exits this afternoon!!........Saw at least five apparent Hydroplaning accidents on that stretch!!


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## elfiii (Sep 25, 2011)

I need about 1.5" of rain 6 miles NNW of Pine Mountain, GA sometime this week. Reckon you guys could work that out for me? I ain't particular about how you make it happen. Just don't spread it out over 7 days.


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## DDD (Sep 26, 2011)

> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> 734 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011
> 
> ...



)


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## huntinglady74 (Sep 27, 2011)

elfiii said:


> I need about 1.5" of rain 6 miles NNW of Pine Mountain, GA sometime this week. Reckon you guys could work that out for me? I ain't particular about how you make it happen. Just don't spread it out over 7 days.



I agree that should just about put it close to house.....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2011)

So much for all of those severe thunderstorms, but I'll take the cooler weather all day long..


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## DDD (Oct 2, 2011)

Storm Chasers is on the Discovery Channel tonight.  Quality t.v.  :lol:


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2011)

DDD said:


> Storm Chasers is on the Discovery Channel tonight.  Quality t.v.  :lol:


Watchin it right now, actually waiting on I Caveman to come on, with one of our local primitive skills guru's debut on the new show.

Hey DDD, we gonna roll cage and steel plate my tahoe or your pickup truck?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2011)

For those of you that joined the discussion on the Georgia Weather website that DDD, BigOx and I have please be aware that it has changed hosts / addresses. You will need to re-register on the new site @

http://georgiaweather.freeforums.org/index.php


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## marknga (Oct 3, 2011)

I'm in... thanks


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## DDD (Oct 3, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Watchin it right now, actually waiting on I Caveman to come on, with one of our local primitive skills guru's debut on the new show.
> 
> Hey DDD, we gonna roll cage and steel plate my tahoe or your pickup truck?



Looks like all we need is some bullet proof glass, a Dodge Neon, some sheet metal and a tig welder.


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## blood on the ground (Oct 3, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks like all we need is some bullet proof glass, a Dodge Neon, some sheet metal and a tig welder.



i got a welder can we please put a dixie horn on it?? i have always wanted one!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2011)

DDD said:


> Looks like all we need is some bullet proof glass, a Dodge Neon, some sheet metal and a tig welder.



There's just something wrong about using a vehicle called a Dodge when you're prime objective is to drive directly into a tornado. Maybe that's why they weren't having any luck last night..



blood on the ground said:


> i got a welder can we please put a dixie horn on it?? i have always wanted one!!



Get us a HumVee and put hydraulics on it so we can slam it to the ground once in the path of the vortex, then armor plate it and we'll talk about the dixie horn.


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## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2011)

on the euro anyone seeing any development in the gulf?? like around day 9... i want my end of the season party dagumit!!


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## DDD (Oct 4, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> on the euro anyone seeing any development in the gulf?? like around day 9... i want my end of the season party dagumit!!



Yes, Canadian and EURO models both have Gulf Low forming on Tuesday of next week and moving in here on Wednesday.   

GFS says no and has some energy, all be it weak, out in the Atlantic and it brings it in around Charleston.  I see the piece of energy in the gulf that the Canadian and EURO are keying on, but the GFS kills it in short order.  GFS does some crazy stuff way out around the 15 day window with the gulf.

No faith in anything over 5-7 days out this time of year.

I can tell you that the window of oprotunity for gulf development of a LPS to provide large amounts of rain is shrinking rapidly.  Upper air patterns are changing around, so the window is almost closed.

Below is the 9 day energy brought in around Charleston.


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## david w. (Oct 9, 2011)

Maybe we will get some rain tomorrow.


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## DDD (Oct 9, 2011)

david w. said:


> Maybe we will get some rain tomorrow.



South GA folks, I hope you planted your food plots this weekend, cause there is some elevated liquid that is going to fall out of the sky.  

Also known as RAIN.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Oct 9, 2011)

Planted my food plots today!!........Hope I'm far enough south!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 10, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> on the euro anyone seeing any development in the gulf?? like around day 9... i want my end of the season party dagumit!!



When are you boys and girls going to realize that the Canadian and the EURO are better at winter forecast than they are at STS weather forecast? Like it or not, the GFS handles the NA weather quite well this time of year.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 16, 2011)

Hey Nicodemus and all you other SOWEGAn's......Jawja's gonna get a cool down this week. Even y'all..


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## fireman401 (Oct 16, 2011)

Nice....bring it on!!!! Good deer hunting temps for Saturday.


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## krisjack (Oct 17, 2011)

Yeah before the cool down there gonna be a stormy day in southwest GA.Should see 2 to 3 inches of rain some storms could be severe but I really dont see it doing a whole lot.Just rain and some wind and a big cool down in the days afterwards.The second day after a cold front is normally the cooliest.Looks like it could be the same weather as last week.Lots of drizzle with intermediate rain but it wont last for days tho.It looks to be a very nice weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 18, 2011)

Have I told you folks about WeatherSpark yet?? You have GOT to go to their site and check it out. 

Here's the link with Albany inserted as the city. Just type in your city and set up the info any old way you want it;  

http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;a=USA/GA/Albany

Here's what the forecast pages for the next few days look like.
At best it looks like around .8 inches of rain for SOWEGA and around 15 to 20 mph winds on Wednesday around noon. Should be interesting to see how accurate this new product is.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 18, 2011)

When you get to WeatherSpark on that link, here's the view you'll have;


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 19, 2011)

You weekday hunters be careful out there over the next couple of days. Although the cooler temps will be a nice change, they are coming with a price. Today you can expect sustained winds around 8 to 10 mph, tomorrow I wouldn't be up in a tree if you paid me. The sustained winds tomorrow could reach the 22 to 25 mph range. 

I'm not talking the occasional gust here folks, I'm talking sustained winds. Y'all be careful out there.


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## DDD (Oct 19, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You weekday hunters be careful out there over the next couple of days. Although the cooler temps will be a nice change, they are coming with a price. Today you can expect sustained winds around 8 to 10 mph, tomorrow I wouldn't be up in a tree if you paid me. The sustained winds tomorrow could reach the 22 to 25 mph range.
> 
> I'm not talking the occasional gust here folks, I'm talking sustained winds. Y'all be careful out there.



Wind chill tomorrow afternoon will be in the 30's.


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## rjcruiser (Oct 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> Wind chill tomorrow afternoon will be in the 30's.



Looks like MC can pass the torch to you DDD.

MC...thanks for the great weather threads this summer.  You started out with a bang and fizzled from there

To be honest, thankful we didn't have any more crazy stuff like back in the spring.  That was aweful and continued prayers to those who lost so much during that storm.


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## Keebs (Oct 19, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> Looks like MC can pass the torch to you DDD.
> 
> MC...thanks for the great weather threads this summer.  You started out with a bang and fizzled from there
> 
> To be honest, thankful we didn't have any more crazy stuff like back in the spring.  That was aweful and continued prayers to those who lost so much during that storm.


 You DO know hurricane season runs through November, right?


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## rjcruiser (Oct 19, 2011)

Keebs said:


> You DO know hurricane season runs through November, right?



It's winter out there today.

Don't jinx us Keebs....


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## NCHillbilly (Oct 19, 2011)

They're saying snow showers the next couple nights here and lows in the 20s this weekend.


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## Keebs (Oct 19, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> it's winter out there today.
> 
> Don't jinx us keebs....


:d



nchillbilly said:


> they're saying snow showers the next couple nights here and lows in the 20s this weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 19, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> They're saying snow showers the next couple nights here and lows in the 20s this weekend.


If  you like that, then you need to go see what I just put up on the WW thread.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=632592


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## YankeeRedneck (Oct 19, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have I told you folks about WeatherSpark yet?? You have GOT to go to their site and check it out.
> 
> Here's the link with Albany inserted as the city. Just type in your city and set up the info any old way you want it;
> 
> ...


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## Holton (Oct 20, 2011)

I'm a Sparking 

Thanks


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 3, 2011)

Whoa!!!! 27 in Franklin N.C. at 6am this morning...


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## NCHillbilly (Nov 3, 2011)

Been in the mid-twenties for the last five mornings here.


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## DDD (Nov 8, 2011)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ne-conditions/2011/11/08/gIQAaiqy0M_blog.html



A ferocious, dangerous storm in the north Pacific is on a collision course with the west coast of Alaska. Referred to as the “Bering Sea Superstorm” by the National Weather Service Office in Fairbanks (NWS), damaging winds, severe beach erosion and major coastal flooding are expected. In some locations, heavy snow and blizzard conditions are also forecast. 

“This will be one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record,” the NWS wrote today. 

The storm is predicted to deepen at an incredible rate, with its central pressure crashing from 973 mb this morning to 945-950 mb tonight.

“This storm has the potential to produce widespread damage,” the NWS in Fairbanks said.

Sustained winds of 80 mph (with gusts to 90 mph in some locations) may impact an area the size of Colorado with offshore waves to more than 40 feet according to the NWS Facebook page. A storm surge of 8 to 10 feet is predicted along the coast. The combination of wind, waves, and high sea levels will create many hazards as described by the NWS in a Special Weather Statement:

THE HIGH SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. STRONG WINDS AND WAVE ACTION MAY PUSH ICE IN NORTON BAY ON SHORE.

Blinding snow is another big concern. NWS cautioned:

THE STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.

A direct hit is forecast for Nome, Alaska where 8-14” of snow is forecast as well as a storm surge as high as 8 feet early Wednesday evening local time at the coast. The NWS likens the storm to the November 11-12, 1974 storm which is the strongest in that city’s 113 years of records.

“Major differences between the 1974 storm and this upcoming storm include the fact that tides were much greater in the 1974 storm,” NWS said. “However, sea ice extent is currently much lower than it was in 1974, thus providing no protection along the coast and greater fetch.”


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## DDD (Nov 8, 2011)




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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 13, 2011)

Got a little more rain moving in Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, avg. 1/2 of rain with isolated areas up to 1 to 1 1/2 inch, and possibly a little thunder, but after it passes we'll get some really good temps moving in by Friday morning. Winds Thursday night into Friday morning should be 10 to 12 mph but dying down for some good cold weather hunting Friday.


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## DDD (Nov 15, 2011)

:worm:


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## Greene728 (Nov 15, 2011)

DDD said:


> :worm:



DDD, 
Is this for tonight or tomorrow? Supposed to fly out of HJIA tomorrow evening about 9pm and hoping for no delays to big buck land!

Thanks!


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> DDD,
> Is this for tonight or tomorrow? Supposed to fly out of HJIA tomorrow evening about 9pm and hoping for no delays to big buck land!
> 
> Thanks!



Not looking good for the home team this afternoon / evening.  Reports coming in this morning about tornados on the ground in Mississippi already.  The bad stuff is not going to get here in our area until this afternoon but low level sheer and lift are higher than forecasted yesterday so the NWS has increased the coverage and strengthened their wording this morning.

Anyone thinking about going to the woods this afternoon needs to pick another day.


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## bigox911 (Nov 16, 2011)

They've raised the tornado probabilities also


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## Trigabby (Nov 16, 2011)

Tornado warning just south of Dallas.....


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## bigox911 (Nov 16, 2011)

Yeah...sounds like the Kennesaw sirens are going off.


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## Keebs (Nov 16, 2011)

Tornado watch for south & west of me............ don't matter if Nicodemus is at the cabin or at home, he's under the watch too............


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2011)

Folks in and around Thomaston need to take cover now.  Big one going there.

Reports that Harris County High School has been hit too with significant damage.


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## Keebs (Nov 16, 2011)

DDD said:


> Folks in and around Thomaston need to take cover now.  Big one going there.
> 
> Reports that Harris County High School has been hit too with significant damage.


My oldest sister lives up there, keep me posted on that one, please!


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2011)

It is on top of Barneville now and picking up steam.


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2011)

It's gonna go just south of Monticello.


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## Keebs (Nov 16, 2011)

Thanks, DDD!


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## deerhuntingdawg (Nov 16, 2011)

Look out Augusta!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 17, 2011)

Saturday's going to be an interesting day, temperature wise. It should keep the deer moving all day real good, with the high temp not being realized til' around 8pm...


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## gobbleinwoods (Nov 17, 2011)

The 10 AM low is also unusual.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 17, 2011)

gobbleinwoods said:


> The 10 AM low is also unusual.


Yes it is. It is the THunter wedge with the cold air sliding down the Apps into our area.


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## GA DAWG (Nov 17, 2011)

The weather I've saw is not calling for that cold stuff. Glad you posted it. Guess I need to pack a few more clothes for the weekend!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 18, 2011)

Watching the maps for the week after Thanksgiving. The potential for stormy and violent weather is there right now, but we are at the extents of the GFS models, so further monitoring is necessary as we get closer to that period.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 20, 2011)

This one will be long via maps, that hopefully will paint a picture of changing trends in our weather pattern over the next few weeks. Over the next few days we will get a couple of wet weather impulses cross our state. Nothing major, but just enough to keep the ducks flying low and the leaves soft for still hunting deer, and the scent low. What this is leading up to is a good cold front coming in around Dec. 4th that will unfortunately bring the possibility of severe weather with it. For now the GFS projections are for the worst weather to be in Miss. and Al. but being better than 10 days out it is worthy of watching. 

The second phase of this setup heading our way is the cold air chasing the moisture. Current projections are for a good snow fall to happen behind the worst of the weather, and a weak scattering of snow in the NW quadrant of Ga.

Here are all of the maps in sequence leading up to that event. The first four are the precip maps and the final map is the forecast snow depth map.


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## DDD (Nov 20, 2011)

:worm:


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## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUE TO BE ON CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG QUESTION WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY. WITH MU CAPE
VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND A HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SUSPECT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC NOW PUTTING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST SECTIONS TODAY...THEN GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CENTRAL
TONIGHT...


It's gonna get rough in some spots tonight, so be weather aware.


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## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)




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## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

I think Alabama is going to be ground zero for whatever severe weather comes across today.  Daytime heating is going to be maxed out there when the convection rolls in.  It might carry over to Georgia but for now I think Alabama could be in for a rought ride.


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## sbfowler (Nov 22, 2011)

DDD is that a low pressure center trying to form over North Central Louisiana right now? If so, could it add some addtiional energy to the system coming through? I'm a rookie weather enthusiast, but trying to get better at prediciting it myself since the "professional" weather people so often get it wrong and weather always impacts our outdoor activities.


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## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

sbfowler said:


> DDD is that a low pressure center trying to form over North Central Louisiana right now? If so, could it add some addtiional energy to the system coming through? I'm a rookie weather enthusiast, but trying to get better at prediciting it myself since the "professional" weather people so often get it wrong and weather always impacts our outdoor activities.



No.  The LP is centered up over the Ohio valley.  It is comma shaped.  Head of the comma up around Ohio, the tail is down around Louisiana.  What you see off the coast is just strong convection because it is tapping the gulf moisture.  

In a winter time set up like this, i would be ticked because those big thunderstorms rob the moisture / convection from coming farther north.

Hope this helps.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

Got a nasty cell in Butts County moving rapidly off to the east north east. Looking at it in Rad Vel 1 there is definitely meso rotation in the cell with the possibility of some good winds for areas in it's path.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

Here it is with the data box removed. Serious voids in the radar echo with that cell. Y'all be careful down there.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

Pretty nasty little cell down around Social Circle heading towards Good Hope as well.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

Rutledge and Madison are next.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

Hit the forward arrow for the loop. This is a great loop of temp diff's pre-front and aft.

http://weatherspark.com/#!maps;a=USA/GA/Atlanta


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 23, 2011)

Looking ahead to Sunday through Tuesday we do have some more rain moving in as a result of a strong low moving across the northern half of the country that will sling some cold air in behind (wrap around effect) to moderate our daily temps for a few days. However there just isn't a driving upper airflow to bring in a serious cold front as would be if this were an arctic blast riding down on the jet stream.

What can we expect Sunday into Monday? Most places in Georgia will see anywhere between 1/2 inch of rain up to 1 and a half inches with isolated heavier downpours as individual cells oscillate through their brief lifespan, just as happened yesterday evening. The duration of the system coming through should be about the same also, give or take an hour. Whereas we started our thunderstorms with a high temp in the mid 70's yesterday, there just won't be a large enough temperature differential with this next system, and it will be coming in with our temps 10 degrees lower to start out. Not saying their won't be a flash of lightning here or there, but I just don't see the potential for severe weather being that high at this point with this next system. (I could change that if the models give me different info, but not in going by what I am seeing right now)

Will we see a flurry of snow? I won't say it's not possible, but the winds Sunday through Tuesday will be fluctuating between SW to W back to SW and eventually a dead South flow. This keeps a warmer flow moving in all three days as opposed to the bitter cold blast we would normally recieve from an arctic blast.

We should see highs on Saturday in the mid 60's with precip moving in (lightly) by around 6 pm or so and then becoming heavier between about 1pm to 7pm on Sunday (depending on where you are when it starts) Lows Sunday morning should be in the mid 50's with a high around 60. Then we take a plunge starting around 3 to 4pm on Sunday to 40 degrees on Monday morning with the precip tapering out of here by 1am or so on Monday. Then we should only peak out at around 50 degrees for a high on Monday and going down to around 34 for Tuesday morning. 

The wind all three days should be between 4 to 7 mph and as stated before, swinging from SW to W on Sunday then back to a SW and eventually Southerly flow.

For those of us wanting to see white stuff so bad, I'm afraid the cards just are stacking up right for this event. I have been watching the fantasy land models out to December 6th and like those possibilities for a flurry (really not much more) during that time period, but it is fantasy land and the models giveth and taketh away on a daily basis so nothing is concrete until much closer to that period.


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## DDD (Nov 23, 2011)

Quite frankly it is too early to tell what this upper level low is going to do.  Models have been all over the place in the last 24 hours.

Reading all the disco's from all over the south east NWS stations, no one knows which model to believe.  

GSP and FFC still talking about rain turning over to flurries.

Its still way too early to call.  at this point i want heavy rain.:jump:


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 24, 2011)

DDD said:


> Quite frankly it is too early to tell what this upper level low is going to do.  Models have been all over the place in the last 24 hours.
> 
> Reading all the disco's from all over the south east NWS stations, no one knows which model to believe.
> 
> ...




No doubt about that. It'll change 20 times between now and then.


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## DDD (Nov 24, 2011)

Today's models again spin out another solution.  The Canadian model has not bent one bit.  It says a major ULL is coming and would mean snow for the mountains and some serious rain for everyone below 2500 feet.  

Some serious rain would fall out of the sky if the Canadian verified.  The EURO this afternoon is similar in it's solution but not as strong, but still a big ULL.

Models always have a hard time with ULL's and they are by far the hardest to predict.  

Here is the Canadian:


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## grunt0331 (Nov 24, 2011)

When would this hit?


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## DDD (Nov 24, 2011)

grunt0331 said:


> When would this hit?



Tuesday.

Glenn Burns is not buying it.  Which means I would be paying attention.


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 24, 2011)

Please bring some colder weather.  I'm tired of of trying to run my bird dogs in 60 degree HEAT and sweating while hauling treestands in and out of the woods.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2011)

Wow!!! What a bombshell. If only the Global Climate Change folks could be this honest.

Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach will no longer issue their December Hurricane Forecasts for the coming year.

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year ... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032


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## jcountry (Dec 13, 2011)

miguel cervantes said:


> wow!!! What a bombshell. If only the global climate change folks could be this honest.
> 
> Dr. Gray and dr. Klotzbach will no longer issue their december hurricane forecasts for the coming year.
> 
> ...




amen!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2011)

December is usually good for some severe weather, I wonder if this weeks weather that's moving in will contribute to the annual stats in the SE?


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## Greene728 (Dec 21, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> December is usually good for some severe weather, I wonder if this weeks weather that's moving in will contribute to the annual stats in the SE?



MC,
The talking heads are saying my area (NW Coweta) is in the moderate area for severe weather with possible isolated tornados tomorrow. Any insight?....


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## Nitram4891 (Dec 21, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> December is usually good for some severe weather, I wonder if this weeks weather that's moving in will contribute to the annual stats in the SE?



Are you asking yourself?


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## DDD (Dec 21, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> MC,
> The talking heads are saying my area (NW Coweta) is in the moderate area for severe weather with possible isolated tornados tomorrow. Any insight?....



Your best shot is on Friday and I think that is stretching it.

The better dynamics are setting up back to your West.  Cape values are at the right level for super cell formation.

I have not said a lot about it just because the models have been bouncing somewhat.  

However, the values have increased for instability and the watch / warning area grows with each run, so it will need to be watched.  24 hours will tell a lot.


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## Greene728 (Dec 21, 2011)

DDD said:


> Your best shot is on Friday and I think that is stretching it.
> 
> The better dynamics are setting up back to your West.  Cape values are at the right level for super cell formation.
> 
> ...





Thanks DDD!   

Will definately keep an eye on it.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 21, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> MC,
> The talking heads are saying my area (NW Coweta) is in the moderate area for severe weather with possible isolated tornados tomorrow. Any insight?....



Something to keep an eye on for sure.

I visited Concord Alabama today. Almost 8 months ago to the day their world was turned upside down. This is just a couple of shots, as photos don't do it justice, and also keep in mind that this was 50 miles away from where this tornado originally touched down in Tuscaloosa.

The first photo was from the top of a hill looking to the NE and what was once a full forest. 

The second was from the same hill looking down into Concord towards the slate pile at the mines. It used to be full of houses, businesses and a church on the right side where the modulars sit now. Fourteen people lost their lives here that afternoon. Out of the frame to the left was Steve's grocery and gas station. The building has been replaced, but not open for business yet, and it will never be the same again without Steve. From this vantage point prior to the tornado you could barely see the top of the slate pile at the mines.


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## Greene728 (Dec 21, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Something to keep an eye on for sure.
> 
> I visited Concord Alabama today. Almost 8 months ago to the day their world was turned upside down. This is just a couple of shots, as photos don't do it justice, and also keep in mind that this was 50 miles away from where this tornado originally touched down in Tuscaloosa.
> 
> ...



Very sad indeed. I could not imagine the horror of that day. Makes you remember how small and insignifigant we are compared to mother nature.....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2011)

Got some hinky weather potentially shaping up west of us here in W. Al. but to be honest, the further east this front comes the more stable the air masses are and  the less differential there is in temperatures. 

The Mets are forecasting that IF any severe weather occurs in Al it will be central and south, however, the most significant crossover winds and cape values are in NW AL mid day and later in the afternoon they are in NE AL and Cent. Tn.

The moisture seems to significantly dry up as the front approaches Georgia, but their still may be a little wind from it, but nothing like the folks in Mississippi will experience.


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## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2011)

Fair amount of GA in a Tornado watch this afternoon.  Main severe threat looks to be south of I20.  Some warnings already in Alabama.  Keep them weather radios on.


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## grunt0331 (Dec 22, 2011)

I'm down by the airport and it looks like nightfall here.  Looks like someone just turned the lights off outside.  Spooky to say the least.


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2011)

Miguel, currently in a deer stand in jeffersonville and had the watches pop up on my phone for bad weather.  Think I have time to squeeze this hunt in?  Should be back home in Bonfire a little before 7.  What time frame are we looking at here for this area?
Thanks


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 22, 2011)

whitetaco02 said:


> Miguel, currently in a deer stand in jeffersonville and had the watches pop up on my phone for bad weather.  Think I have time to squeeze this hunt in?  Should be back home in Bonfire a little before 7.  What time frame are we looking at here for this area?
> Thanks



You've got a couple of hours,,,,,,,,maybe...


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 22, 2011)

It`s gettin` somewhat dark here.


----------



## Jeff Phillips (Dec 22, 2011)

Thunder and lightening at the Forsyth/Dawson line right now...


----------



## RNC (Dec 22, 2011)

bigole storm for sure ! 
dark an still here ;[


----------



## slip (Dec 22, 2011)

Started the year with twisty stuff ... lets please not end it that way to.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You've got a couple of hours,,,,,,,,maybe...



Made it home!  Thanks

No deer though!


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 22, 2011)

Got a little hairy here for a bit around 530ish. Like others said, dark as night then the bottom fell out!!!

Power just came back on about 10min ago! Lots of trees reported down and boy did it rain!


----------



## ryano (Dec 22, 2011)

Floyd and Gordon counties got hammered!   wondering if this was just really strong winds or actual tornadoes? 

One family in Calhoun house was blown off its foundation and leveled!  It was a man, his wife and one year old child..........they were blown out into the yard and all survived!  

We just got a lot of rain here in Pickens


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2011)

Prayers certainly go out to those folks up in NW Georgia that were effected by these storms. Tough pill to swallow at any time of the year, but especially this close to Christmas.


----------



## Chuck C (Dec 27, 2011)

We got nailed!

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Big-Whiskey-Gun-Club/176347352389147


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2011)

Chuck C said:


> We got nailed!
> 
> http://www.facebook.com/pages/Big-Whiskey-Gun-Club/176347352389147



On a positive note. Al is gonna have lots of firewood to sell the remainder of this year and all of next...

You boys have a ton of work cut out for you, not to mention a lot of fresh browse will be jumpin up this spring.


----------



## Chuck C (Dec 27, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> On a positive note. Al is gonna have lots of firewood to sell the remainder of this year and all of next...
> 
> You boys have a ton of work cut out for you, not to mention a lot of fresh browse will be jumpin up this spring.



The problem is getting it out of the woods and down to Al.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 27, 2011)

Chuck C said:


> The problem is getting it out of the woods and down to Al.


Just *Delegate* that part to AJ & John..................


----------



## Chuck C (Dec 27, 2011)

Keebs said:


> Just *Delegate* that part to AJ & John..................



John does have a 16 ft trailer; so that is about 180 trips back and forth to Al's.......


----------



## Keebs (Dec 27, 2011)

Chuck C said:


> John does have a 16 ft trailer; so that is about 180 trips back and forth to Al's.......


 what better way to keep him out of trouble?!?!


----------



## Chuck C (Dec 27, 2011)

Keebs said:


> what better way to keep him out of trouble?!?!



I think he has a new "distraction" so I'm pretty sure he is going to be scarce...

but AJ does have a new Stihl.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 30, 2011)

Interesting national stat posted on Twitter by James Panovich, met for WCNC in North Carolina.

"#Tornado stats for this year & so far there are 1625 confirmed tornadoes. A whopping 46% of them occurred during the month of April."

and


"65% of all the fatalities occurred in April as well. #tornado"


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2012)

For next week, and longer term...



> LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
> /ISSUED 347 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012/
> WARM...WET WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
> TERM. THE SHORT WAVE THAT SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRI
> ...



http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2012)

Nobody is callin it over in Troy, Al., no warnings up or anything, but this radar sure looks like a tornado, and the pic just taken out of Troy looks like it as well. It's one heck of a rain shaft if it isn't a vortex.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 9, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nobody is callin it over in Troy, Al., no warnings up or anything, but this radar sure looks like a tornado, and the pic just taken out of Troy looks like it as well. It's one heck of a rain shaft if it isn't a vortex.
> 
> View attachment 642633
> 
> View attachment 642634


 from the looks of that pic im thinkin they need to be going the other way

i had me a little thunder boomer roll through about 3am this morning..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 11, 2012)

You folks up in Western NC might wanna take cover. This is the TDWR Radar out of Charlotte.


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 11, 2012)

Wow...look at all the pretty colors...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 11, 2012)

Is this January? I got into a big hail and lightning storm on the way home from work. Then it's supposed to snow tomorrow evening and highs in the low thirties Friday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 11, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Is this January? I got into a big hail and lightning storm on the way home from work. Then it's supposed to snow tomorrow evening and highs in the low thirties Friday.



Crazy stuff. If this is an indicator it's gonna be a very busy spring...
This is the first time EVER that the Severe Weather Thread has had anything to post this far into the winter.

http://www.wbtv.com/story/16500484/tornado-warning-for-lincoln-catawba


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 11, 2012)

Sounds like it was pretty rough in NC tonight;

http://www.wcnc.com/news/local/Severe-weeather-pounding-NewsChannel-36-viewing-area-137130908.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 14, 2012)

2011 was one for the record books:

1725 tornadoes
551 deaths 
59 tornadoes classified as killers.

We've already started the year in the US with 3 tornadoes for January.

We need a break this year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Severe is what GB said. Now, it's all a matter of what your definition of "severe" is. A very active thunderstorm with good cloud to ground lightning is a good ol' fashioned thunderstorm to me. If there is exceptional c-g lightning then I call it a bad thunderstorm. 

Now, if we have significant Meso activity with brief hor. or vert. vortex signatures, an occasional short lived TVS or even straight line winds and extreme downbursts, then I call it severe weather.

Sometimes I think the TV mets blur the line for a sensationalist effect, which does nothing to aid in the public being able to discern or prepare for what exactly they are talking about.

Here is what I see for today; Cape and Cin values are down, Lifted index is up. Isobars aren't nearly as tightly stacked as I'd like to see them to nail this one down. Where it is all going to count is echo tops vs. max hts. to allow some of the warmer air at the surface to hit good altitudes and much colder air aloft as the front approaches. This will allow the brief but sudden downdrafts, hail, meso activity, and most likely a few bow echo's indicating some good downdrafts and straight line winds. Might be some good lightning popping around too.

What little Cape / Cin & Lifted Index values there are to show the potential for any damaging weather would be right up a line from SE Miss, through McCalla Alabama, and up through Dallas to Calhoun Ga and points NE'ward. (pretty much right along the tail of the Appalachians) Being a prominate topographical feature, with congruent valleys when a cold front is pushing in from the NW and the general surface flow is from the SW we get surface warm air running the valley's and plains west of the ridges. When the NW flow collides with this NE flow out of the SW and forces it up the ridges into the cold air there is a pretty violent collision of differential air masses, creating turbulence, most often in the form of horizontal rotation, or Meso scale activity. With winter systems it is tough for a bad cell to sustain itself for long, so even if they do go vertical or TVS, then they are short lived, but that is all it takes to kill someone. 

We'll see lightning and hear a few rumbles this morning, but later this afternoon is when the real fun starts, with the cold front approaching and destabilizing the air mass overhead. Keep your ears and eyes open, it could be fun


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Right now would be a very bad time to be standing on top of stone mountain. I don't think, as much as I love watching lightning, that I'd even want to be inside the building up there right now. I bet they have a few new potholes blown in the rock come this afternoon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Hmmmmm, these cells are flying really low. I've had to filter my radar down to 30 dbz. Usually I filter to 23 dbz and have no problems. If anything does rotate, either Meso or TVS there will be absolutely no warning, it will be short lived and over before you know it. The c to g lightning is the most impressive thing so far.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Anyone south of Calhoun that can report on this cell? I think the cells are too low for dopplar to be effective on showing rotation. This is a nasty little cell, indicating hail, but the velocity composites aren't showing rotation. I'm betting there's at least some good downdrafts with it.


----------



## Trigabby (Jan 21, 2012)

Uhhh, ahhh, ahh!  The radar thread isn't working!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Trigabby said:


> Uhhh, ahhh, ahh!  The radar thread isn't working!!!



Word on da' skreet is there are a couple of trees down your way. Only storm reports I have showing are hail. Any truth to that?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Nasty line of TS's in Douglas County right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

This cell up in NW Ga isn't letting up. Now showing Meso. Sure would like some folks up that way to tell us how nasty it is.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 21, 2012)

Looks like the worst ones are going just to the north and just to the south of us here.  Just a few rumbles of thunder.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> Looks like the worst ones are going just to the north and just to the south of us here.  Just a few rumbles of thunder.



Rumbles. Man, me and DDD are about 6 or 8 miles apart and we had one strike that sounded like a MOAB going off shaking the pictures off of our walls...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Sure would like some ground truth on this one. This is the same line that went through Douglas County. Now showing much more strength, lots of lightning, 1.5 inch hail possible and Meso 3.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Rumbles. Man, me and DDD are about 6 or 8 miles apart and we had one strike that sounded like a MOAB going off shaking the pictures off of our walls...


Nice!  How are we looking up here for the rest of the weekend? Am I gonna have 40 people dodging lightning bolts as they're hiking up this afternoon and heading out tomorrow morning?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> Nice!  How are we looking up here for the rest of the weekend? Am I gonna have 40 people dodging lightning bolts as they're hiking up this afternoon and heading out tomorrow morning?



Tomorrow would be a better day to dodge weather. Better bunk them up for the afternoon today.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Polk, N. Harolson and Paulding about to get hammered.


----------



## DCHunter (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sure would like some ground truth on this one. This is the same line that went through Douglas County. Now showing much more strength, lots of lightning, 1.5 inch hail possible and Meso 3.
> 
> View attachment 645379



As for Douglas County ground check. It was no big deal. Heavy rain with lightning. Strange for January, but it was a typical heavy spring like thunderstorm. It was enough to make me go around and unplug valuable electronics.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 21, 2012)

Heavy rain and some good little jolts of T&L but otherwise just a fantastic morning to lay here and do absolutely nothing...


----------



## Kendallbearden (Jan 21, 2012)

Folks in Newnan better get ready. Looks like a big nasty one passing through Wedowee and Roanoak, AL. Looks like it's going to pretty much dead center newnan.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

We just had our third MOAB.  I'd hate to be anywhere near those things when they strike..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

When you hear the air crack in the house when lightning flashes for MOAB #4 that's getting a little too close...


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 21, 2012)

how long is this stuff gonna last? Is it gonna break sometime today?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> how long is this stuff gonna last? Is it gonna break sometime today?



It'll be over soon, but the way that cell is bowing over towards you it might get a little windy first.


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 21, 2012)

MC,
Tornado warning issued for us in Coweta and Heard Co....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Tornado warning in Heard and Coweta Counties.


----------



## lbzdually (Jan 21, 2012)

It looks like it is over for extreme NW Ga, unless it builds up again.  Is that going to happen MC?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Definite Meso rotation down that way.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Jan 21, 2012)

Boys it is rocking down here on the river in Heard!!!! Son!!


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 21, 2012)

Heard Coweta line here and boys its not pretty at all....

Think its basement time!


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It'll be over soon, but the way that cell is bowing over towards you it might get a little windy first.



Thanks Bro. Wind I can deal with... the rain, not so much


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

If you live near to any of these areas you might want to find a big rock to get under for a few minutes. This includes Sharpsburg and Senoia.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 21, 2012)

I love your descriptions of lightning as MOAB's, lol!
The group that's supposed to come up tonight is trying to chicken out and not hike the 5 miles.  We'll see what happens.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 21, 2012)

I love your descriptions of lightning as MOAB's, lol!
The group that's supposed to come up tonight is trying to chicken out and not hike the 5 miles.  We'll see what happens.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> I love your descriptions of lightning as MOAB's, lol!
> The group that's supposed to come up tonight is trying to chicken out and not hike the 5 miles.  We'll see what happens.



Dude, when it strikes 8 or 10 miles away from mine and DDD's house and still sounds like a bomb and shakes the houses, that's for sure a MOAB (Mother of All Bolts)...

Your group is clear to hike now. Might be a little windy and steadily dropping to 20 degrees cooler, but they won't have to dodge MOABs...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Lanier was at 9.98 ft. below full pool this morning. It will be interesting to see the gauge tomorrow morning.


----------



## slip (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel, how bout that one heading for us in henry county? Looks awful skeery


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

slip said:


> Miguel, how bout that one heading for us in henry county? Looks awful skeery



Just turned off all of the radar toys. The worst cells are now in Meriweather County. All the stuff north of that are just thunderstorms, despite the NWS's new Tornado warning. That old cell has blown apart.


----------



## slip (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just turned off all of the radar toys. The worst cells are now in Meriweather County. All the stuff north of that are just thunderstorms, despite the NWS's new Tornado warning. That old cell has blown apart.



Alright, thanks.


----------



## rhbama3 (Jan 21, 2012)

South West Ga, including  Terrell, Dougherty, and Lee Counties now under tornado watch till 8pm tonight.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

rhbama3 said:


> South West Ga, including  Terrell, Dougherty, and Lee Counties now under tornado watch till 8pm tonight.



Enjoy the boomers, I've had to rehang half the pictures in my house from the MOABs striking all around..


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Enjoy the boomers, I've had to rehang half the pictures in my house from the MOABs striking all around..



"Oh POOPY!!!"


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

HOLY COW!!!! Storms have been gone a good 20 minutes and MOAB #5 just hit!!!! That one traveled from a cell way east southeast of us just to blow something apart to my west.

That was by far the biggest one yet.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> HOLY COW!!!! Storms have been gone a good 20 minutes and MOAB #5 just hit!!!! That one traveled from a cell way east southeast of us just to blow something apart to my west.
> 
> That was by far the biggest one yet.



If it gets really bad around the Thomaston area, give me a heads up, sis#1 lives up there! Thanks!


----------



## nickel back (Jan 21, 2012)

we just got hit and hard here in Lamar,looks like it snowed here it hailed so bad


----------



## boneboy96 (Jan 21, 2012)

I was up in Calhoun this morning at 9am, and it looked ominous in the distance.  Later around 10:30 I was in Marietta at the fairgrounds and it looked even darker off to the side.  Got to Smyrna around 11:30 and the bottom fell out on top of A.O.  Got home in Roswell by 12:30 and it was coming down pretty good but it's cleared up considerably since then.   Look out all yee folks in and around south Atlanta, Jonesboro, Hampton, Griffin!


----------



## telco guy (Jan 21, 2012)

Rain has subsided and the lightning seems to be getting farther off just south of Covington


----------



## TJBassin (Jan 21, 2012)

Barnesville just got one big Hail Storm. I hate to hear the Sirens going off. A creepy feel and I aint no young un.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> If it gets really bad around the Thomaston area, give me a heads up, sis#1 lives up there! Thanks!



Done turned off my gizmo's.




nickel back said:


> we just got hit and hard here in Lamar,looks like it snowed here it hailed so bad



Post that over in the "spotters" thread too if you would please..




telco guy said:


> Rain has subsided and the lightning seems to be getting farther off just couth of Covington



Don't trust it, It will come get you from 20+ miles away...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

TJBassin said:


> Barnesville just got one big Hail Storm. I hate to hear the Sirens going off. A creepy feel and I aint no young un.



Put that one in the spotters thread too please. We need to build a data base per storm occurance over there. Thanks for the info.


----------



## jf950y (Jan 21, 2012)

That should help the lake levels.


----------



## slip (Jan 21, 2012)

Got a inch and a half in about 20 minutes time.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Hey shuggums, is this whole system "sliding south/southeast"??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Hey shuggums, is this whole system "sliding south/southeast"??



Yup.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yup.


Oy, so I may get hammered with it afterall............ got a time frame for me???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Oy, so I may get hammered with it afterall............ got a time frame for me???



Yup, this afternoon...


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yup, this afternoon...


 gee, thanks


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> gee, thanks



I typed in Fitzbeccaville and didn't get a return on the location...


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I typed in Fitzbeccaville and didn't get a return on the location...


 but yet your GPS got you here a time or two........ hhhmmm
Never mind, got the company on the road back home, so I'm not as worried now, just hope they get home before it gets to them!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Jan 21, 2012)

Weather radio just went off for tornado warning.  South Houston county and northern dooly county.


----------



## ryork (Jan 21, 2012)

Had lightning strike a tree in the front yard around 11:00 or this morning.  Some of the most fierce lightning I can remember, didn't feel like January for sure.  Appears it got the heat pump too.

I'm ready for about two weeks of winter!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Very dangerous cell moving SE. If you're in this area take the necessary precautions.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Hey Nic and RHBama,,,,,,,heads up!!!!


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

I AM loved!  Thanks BIgOx for the heads up earlier, watched the clouds slide east, *just* north of me........ getting some wet stuff now though!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> I AM loved!  Thanks BIgOx for the heads up earlier, watched the clouds slide east, *just* north of me........ getting some wet stuff now though!



It ain't over for you yet youngun.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It ain't over for you yet youngun.


 just had the first "major" lightening show off, now it's raining harder! ANd COOL!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Keebs said:


> just had the first "major" lightening show off, now it's raining harder! ANd COOL!



You oughta see it over in Leesberg and soon in Albany, they are getting lit up!!! Check this out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

You've got 10 or 15 minutes before you'll need to crawl under the hen house Keebs. Just a little Meso cloud spitting out 1/2 in hail, a good amount of lightning and some wind. Nothing much...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2012)

Never mind the yellow line Keebs. This ones all yours.
See, I even found Fitzbeccaville....


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Never mind the yellow line Keebs. This ones all yours.
> See, I even found Fitzbeccaville....
> View attachment 645469



Holey Moley, Miguel, you NAILED it!!!!!!!! Aaaawww, see, I KNEW I was here!


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Thank heavens for a porch........... it's awesome sitting out here listening & watching this!


----------



## Keebs (Jan 21, 2012)

Hail in Fitzbeccaville!


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

May have to fire this thing up again tonight.  Some serious upper air dynamics are going on just to our West.  The Tommy Wedge is currently keeping us stable, but the cells that are firing alread just SW of Columbus has my attention.  

The NWS has some very strong wording for Mississippi and Alabama and they updated the zones to come farther East about 3 hours ago.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ERN AR...SERN MO...SRN PARTS OF IL/IND...WRN PARTS OF KY/TN...NRN
MS...NWRN AL AND FAR NERN LA......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF THE OH
VALLEY TO ARKLATEX/CNTRL GULF COAST...

...FORECAST...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO TN
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY. FORECAST REASONING GENERALLY REMAINS
UNCHANGED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL/BROADER PERSPECTIVE.

LATEST HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /SUCH AS
EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO/ REFLECT THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY
TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TOWARD /AND ESPECIALLY AFTER/ THE 23Z-02Z TIME
FRAME WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A MIXED-MODE OF
SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING QLCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS STORMS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD/AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..GUYER.. 01/22/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/

...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING...

...SYNOPSIS...

INTENSE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT WHILE MOVING INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ATTENDED BY
100+ KT JET STREAKS AT 500 AND 250 MB WITH A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR
HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-200 M AT 500 MB FORECAST ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...CYCLONE OVER WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TO ERN KS BY
23/00Z BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO NRN IL BY 23/12Z. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM NERN TX EWD
ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL/GA WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY
SURFACE LOW.

...OH VALLEY SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

12Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF
13-14 G/KG. THE INTENSIFICATION AND BROADENING OF A 50+ KT LLJ WILL
ALLOW FOR THE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S BY TONIGHT INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AN EWD/NEWD-ADVECTING EML...CONTRIBUTING TO
RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. EXPECT MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH VALUES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF MS AND AL ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 22/21Z-23/00Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL OR ERN AR AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING/EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
BETWEEN 23/00Z-23/06Z...EXPECT THE RAPID EXPANSION IN SEVERE TSTMS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS WITH STORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MS INTO AL THROUGH 23/12Z.

LOCATIONS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING TORNADOES /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL ALIGN WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
250-400 M2/S2...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EVOLVING QLCS.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

This is for tonight and early tomorrow morning...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

DDD said:


> May have to fire this thing up again tonight.  Some serious upper air dynamics are going on just to our West.  The Tommy Wedge is currently keeping us stable, but the cells that are firing alread just SW of Columbus has my attention.
> 
> The NWS has some very strong wording for Mississippi and Alabama and they updated the zones to come farther East about 3 hours ago.
> .



I ain't skeered...

But on a serious note, I believe timing / time of day, will be on our side for this one. Plus I don't think the TH wedgie is going to break down that easily. Folks in SOWEGA may want to pay attention to the weather radio's, but I'm gonna put this one on the back burner till my radar starts screaming at me to do otherwise.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I ain't skeered...
> 
> But on a serious note, I believe timing / time of day, will be on our side for this one. Plus I don't think the TH wedgie is going to break down that easily. Folks in SOWEGA may want to pay attention to the weather radio's, but I'm gonna put this one on the back burner till my radar starts screaming at me to do otherwise.



Its 53 in Douglasville and its 43 in Dacula.

The wedge is keeping things stable for us, but as for the Western side of the state, I think all bets are off.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

DDD said:


> Its 53 in Douglasville and its 43 in Dacula.
> 
> The wedge is keeping things stable for us, but as for the Western side of the state, I think all bets are off.



Yep, if I was a bettin man with any photoshop skills this is what the area of concern in Georgia would look like to me...


----------



## southerngentleman (Jan 22, 2012)

Should we be on the lookout for severe weather in the Warner Robins area.....if so, when??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

southerngentleman said:


> Should we be on the lookout for severe weather in the Warner Robins area.....if so, when??



Timing will be tricky with dewpoints and humidity needing to change as the system moves in. If you have a weather radio, keep it close. If you don't, get one, you'll need it this spring anyway..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Tornado watches up in SE Arky and N. Miss. Hmmmmm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

First Tornado warnings of the evening issued just southwest of Waddlers location. Keep  your ears open out that way!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Mesoscale discussion 0048 
nws storm prediction center norman ok 
0648 pm cst sun jan 22 2012 

areas affected...cntrl/ern ar 

concerning...tornado watch 5... 

Valid 230048z - 230145z 

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 5 continues. 

Severe potential continues to increase across cntrl ar and incipient 
regional tornado outbreak appears to be unfolding...with probable 
significant tornadoes developing across s-cntrl into nern ar. 

As of 0045z...lead broken band of tstms extended in a nne-ssw 
orientation from randolph to columbia counties. Several embedded 
mesocyclones continue to intensify with initial tornado warnings 
having been recently issued across s-cntrl ar. Modified 00z 
lzk/shv/jan raobs suggest mlcape of 750-1250 j/kg is prevalent ahead 
of this band from s-cntrl to e-cntrl ar. With effective srh now in 
excess of 500-600 m2/s2...*extreme low-level shear/very large 
hodographs breeds high confidence in sustained/long-tracked 
supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.*


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

This doesn't look good Waddler. This is definitely a debris ball, meaning that one is on the ground just north of Ebb. The good news is it's a good 45 minutes or so from you, so hopefully it'll fall apart before it makes it up your way.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

The one south of Beardon is a nasty one for sure.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

Yeah, I am tightening up!! Maybe the storm will just bring rain and blow some ducks in. A severe thundestorm can empty the area overnight. My worry now is that I might be able to catch one by hand at  1000 feet.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This doesn't look good Waddler. This is definitely a debris ball, meaning that one is on the ground just north of Ebb. The good news is it's a good 45 minutes or so from you, so hopefully it'll fall apart before it makes it up your way.
> 
> View attachment 645729



Right now only spotters have hail... no damage or tornado spotted.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

waddler said:


> Yeah, I am tightening up!! Maybe the storm will just bring rain and blow some ducks in. A severe thundestorm can empty the area overnight. My worry now is that I might be able to catch one by hand at  1000 feet.



It's not looking good. I just pulled up the velocity mode and this is a booger, showing extremely good rotation and still making a bee line for Brinkley.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Now the Sherriff's department in Fordyce is reporting seeing the tornado on the ground.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not looking good. I just pulled up the velocity mode and this is a booger, showing extremely good rotation and still making a bee line for Brinkley.
> 
> View attachment 645751



That ain't a lot of cushion. I am in Hunter, about 12 miles north of Brinkley on Hwy 49.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

waddler said:


> That ain't a lot of cushion. I am in Hunter, about 12 miles north of Brinkley on Hwy 49.



Stay tuned here. We're on it like flies on flypaper..
She just took a shift SE, but that doesn't mean anything good for you yet.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

At 727 pm cst...national weather service doppler radar was tracking a
confirmed tornado. This tornado was located 4 miles northeast of 
fordyce...moving northeast at 55 mph. In addition to the 
tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail up 
to golf ball size.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

My camp is due West of Memphis and almost due North of Brinkley.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Dallas County in Arky reporting major damage and injuries.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

...tornado emergency for the warned area...

At 736 pm cst...storm spotters and national weather service
meteorologists were tracking a confirmed tornado with reports of
damage in fordyce. This potentially deadly tornado was located 4 miles
southeast of grays lake...moving northeast at 55 mph. In addition to
the tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail
up to golf ball size.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Skywarn repeater system has been hit and is down.  Geeze.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

waddler said:


> My camp is due West of Memphis and almost due North of Brinkley.



I just set 5, 10 and 15 mile warning rings dead on Hunter's Lat/Lon. 

Look at what I am watching. 
Seriously, I hope you have a shelter or basement you can get in if this cell holds together. This is a bad mama jamma cell, and more are following up behind it.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12 (Jan 22, 2012)

Experiencing rain and still chilly weather here in West Ga. (just north of I-20). I was reading earlier on Spanns blog that he is expecting the severe threat to start easing off the further east this system travels. Is this you guys opinion? Will this rain that is over the area right now help to keep the area more stable or is this a whole different kinda system? Thanks in advance for your relpy.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

I got nothing. Just have to get close to the chimney.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

CanyonHunter said:


> Experiencing rain and still chilly weather here in West Ga. (just north of I-20). I was reading earlier on Spanns blog that he is expecting the severe threat to start easing off the further east this system travels. Is this you guys opinion? Will this rain that is over the area right now help to keep the area more stable or is this a whole different kinda system? Thanks in advance for your relpy.



Depends on how much warm air is pulled up out of the gulf with it. We won't know until it gets here. I hate night time tornado weather...



waddler said:


> I got nothing. Just have to get close to the chimney.



That cell lifted, but maintained MESO rotation and has since tightened up again. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go vertical dropping another vortex soon. I'm gonna watch it in velocity mode for a few more minutes then I'm gonna switch back to base reflectivity. It's easier to see debris balls in that mode.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

That didn't take long. No sooner than I could get back on the radar she is TVS again. Looks to be a bit south of you on it's track for now. The MESO cell above it is clipping along at 62 mph, so either way it's gonna get rough, let's just hope the Tornado's stay south of Hunter.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

I sho vote for that "South of Brinkley" business, tho I hate to wish it on other folks, hopefully they are better prepared than a duck camp.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Gonna get hinky there in about 10 minutes or less. Get back with us when you loosen your grip on the chimney and give us an A-OK Waddler.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Nice hook developing over Fredonia. If it drops one again Brinkley will take a direct hit.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

It's all your's now. The cell will be ahead of my updates when it's this close. Be safe and report back when it's over.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

OK! The dish TV just went out, so it is about here. Rain and some wind. Hope the lights stay on.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

more to come


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

TV back on. Bad lightning down toward Zent, lots of thunder. So far so good.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service memphis tn
811 pm cst sun jan 22 2012

the national weather service in memphis has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern lee county in eastern arkansas...
Western st. Francis county in eastern arkansas...

* until 900 pm cst

* at 810 pm cst...trained weather spotters reported a tornado 19
miles west of garret grove...or near de valls bluff...moving
northeast at 50 mph.

* locations in the warning include but are not limited to forrest
city...madison and palestine.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

It just shifted north about 3 miles.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

More TV problems, accuweather is showing Brinkley being hammered. Not too bad here yet, but with satellite out it means heavy stuff SW.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

She's ablowing now. Big time storm, hopefully just storm, but it is getting rougher both N & S.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

1.75" hail in Brinkley. That's a bit too close for comfort. Whatever you're gonna get should be on top of you right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Outside of some heavy rain following in behind that line you should be in the clear now.


----------



## waddler (Jan 22, 2012)

TV is still off, but wind and rain have lessened considerably. Thanks a bunch for getting me thru this business. I appreciate it much. Too bad you aren't around, I don't have a hunting partner tomorrow and there was about 100 Mallards near the pit. Maybe you can come out sometime.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

waddler said:


> TV is still off, but wind and rain have lessened considerably. Thanks a bunch for getting me thru this business. I appreciate it much. Too bad you aren't around, I don't have a hunting partner tomorrow and there was about 100 Mallards near the pit. Maybe you can come out sometime.



Glad it spared you. Hairy for a minute or two I'm sure. I just might take you up on that feather bustin one day..

Now to shift East to the Memphis radar site.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Good Grief! - About an hour ago.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

DDD said:


> Good Grief!



Dude!!! That map is sooo 30 minutes ago...


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dude!!! That map is sooo 30 minutes ago...



I know, just amazing to see 4 in one radar shot like that.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 22, 2012)

My nephew was/is in Little Rock, haven't heard back from him, hoping he flew his plane back earlier in the day.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

DDD said:


> I know, just amazing to see 4 in one radar shot like that.



Looks like they are loosing a little of their umph now. I'll watch the Memphis Doppler for a bout 30 more minutes then I'm moving south to see what might fire up down in Miss.

Temps right ahead of this system have been jumping 10 degrees in around 3 hours.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> My nephew was/is in Little Rock, haven't heard back from him, hoping he flew his plane back earlier in the day.



Better rattle his cage. It got plum nasty out there this evening.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Looks like SW Kentucky might even get in on some of this nastiness this evening..

Crazy stuff watching these four hour temp loops. Temps are jumping up 10 degrees ahead of the system and then hitting 20 degrees lower immediately behind it. Lots of gulf juice being sucked up by this monster.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like SW Kentucky might even get in on some of this nastiness this evening..
> 
> Crazy stuff watching these four hour temp loops. Temps are jumping up 10 degrees ahead of the system and then hitting 20 degrees lower immediately behind it. Lots of gulf juice being sucked up by this monster.



We have family in Somerset, KY.  But they are weather hawks themselves.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

You wanna see a crazy wild moisture plume?? check this out.
Explains the temp jumps.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

For our visual fans....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2012)

Looks like the excitement is over for the evening, at least what I am going to monitor. I'll peak in on this monster in the morning.


----------



## southerngentleman (Jan 22, 2012)

Heys guys...thanks for keeping us informed on the severe weather...but seriously DDD...when are you gonna whip us up a winter storm to follow.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Tunica just popped a tornado warning. 

I don't think they are going to die down for a while.


----------



## DDD (Jan 22, 2012)

Memphis is about to get slammed.

* AT 955 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR 
SIMSBORO...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUGHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
EDMONDSON...HORSESHOE LAKE...MARION...PINCKNEY...SIMSBORO...
SUNSET...WEST MEMPHIS...DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...FRAYSER...MIDTOWN
MEMPHIS...SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS...MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND T
O FULLER STATE PARK.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 22, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> My nephew was/is in Little Rock, haven't heard back from him, hoping he flew his plane back earlier in the day.





Just got off the phone with him, he was dead in the middle of it in Little Rock.  A little shaken, but fine !!


----------



## Kendallbearden (Jan 23, 2012)

Looks like we've got more heading our way. Doesn't look as bad as the other's though. Miguel, if you get on before these get to us, shoot us an update and tell us what these storms look like.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Jan 23, 2012)

Issued by The National Weather Service
Atlanta, GA 

Mon, Jan 23, 2012, 5:38 AM EST 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 11 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING 

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES 

IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA 

CARROLL 

IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA 

HARRIS HEARD TROUP 

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... CARROLLTON... FRANKLIN... PINE MOUNTAIN AND WEST POINT


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

I can pretty much reiterate what I said the other day about storms entering our state, especially out of the WNW with a strong NE'ward gulf flow. Topography, topography, topography. Anywhere along good high mountain ridges and valley's are going to be differential air masses with turbulence. That means, yes, Pine Mountain area is a natural for this, also the NW corner of the state, especially around Dallas, Rockmart, Carrollton and on down south.

Currently our cold air wedge over NE Ga and Atlanta is holding extremely well, which should seriously dampen the cells once they over run the air. We just have to wait and see how the wedge holds up. 

My other area of concern is the one I drew a red circle around yesterday. SOWEGA. They aren't under the strong influences of the wedge and should be effected by the strong gulf plume of moisture coming up. Hopefully it should just be a good bit of rain that they really need, but I'd keep my eyes peeled down there if I were them.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

BTW, I HATE WINTER TORNADO's....

The cells in Arky last night were easy to watch, as they were spring style well developed hooks with very tight rotation and clear debris balls. 

This junk we have coming out of Alabama is typical winter style cells with no way of reading rotation or ground effects without constantly keeping the radar mode in storm velocity. Which is a pain in the rear to watch. But the two warning areas closest to Georgia definitely have rotation in them.


----------



## ryork (Jan 23, 2012)

I'm about 2 miles from the AL line in SW Carroll, it's 56 degrees here compared to about 67-70 in Anniston/B'ham areas. It is up from 53 degrees at about 5:45 this morning though.  Hope the cooler temps hold and help a little, I wasn't mentally prepared for this stuff in January!  Dang storm on Sat got my downstairs HVAC, the garage door openers, the well filter, etc etc

BTW, I'm sitting on the side of the highest elevation in GA South of I-20.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

Looks like my old stompin ground in Alex City Al. it getting hammered.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

Looks like our wedge is holding strong and blowing these cells apart. I'd still be on the lookout in SOWEGA later this morning.


----------



## Kendallbearden (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like our wedge is holding strong and blowing these cells apart. I'd still be on the lookout in SOWEGA later this morning.



Yep. I was just watching the doppler radar. It's amazing, the second they hit the state line the red changes to yellow, and the yellow changes to green.


----------



## ryork (Jan 23, 2012)

Temp has jumped 8 degrees here since 5:45 AM.


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

Maplesville, AL has been hit hard


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

Here is a pic from the B'ham tornado that rolled through this morning.  B'ham t.v. reporting people still trapped and 911 jammed.


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

Thankfuly, as Miguel stated, the Tommy Wedge is blowing the storms apart.


----------



## ryork (Jan 23, 2012)

Appears the AL/B'ham NWS office didn't extend the tornado warning for that cell coming out of the Alex City area to the county which borders us in AL.  That's good news!


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

It needs to be pointed out that from Columbia over to Macon and ANY points south should not turn a deaf ear.

The Wedge is not that strong below Macon and as the sun comes up and the front pulls closer the warm air is going to eject out of the gulf and these things may go back tornadic and with very little warning.


----------



## TJay (Jan 23, 2012)

My brother lives in Helena AL and his mil lives in Clay and apparently there's considerable damage in Clay which is slightly east and north of B'ham.


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

TJay said:


> My brother lives in Helena AL and his mil lives in Clay and apparently there's considerable damage in Clay which is slightly east and north of B'ham.



The picture I posted was probably that tornado that did that damage.  I hope everyone is ok.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 23, 2012)

What's it lookin' like for us this mornin'?


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

Troup and Heard County needs to put their attention on that storm approaching from the west.  It still has a tornado warning and couplet sig.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 23, 2012)

I sure wish I'da kept my oldest home. We've got a tornado watch til 4pm according to the new station here. Mighty dark outside


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

South Metro ATL just went under tornado watch until 4PM along with South GA.

Ya'll Get ready.

Here is a panoramic picture from Centerpoint, Alabama.  Unreal.

http://360.io/hBK3PZ


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

Just talked to my B&L in Oak Grove Al. 3 dead there and 1 dead just up the road in Concord. Man those folks have been beat up in the last 9 months.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

Just amended the thread title to include Jan. 2012, but after this system clears us I'll start a new Severe Weather thread for 2012. Maybe that'll confuse Murphy and he'll lay off for a while.


----------



## spotman (Jan 23, 2012)

Man, Alabama can't catch a break from the nasty stuff. Prayers sent for those impacted!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

On another note; An M9 class solar flare just ejected earthbound. CME should impact our geomagnetic field around Jan. 24-25th. This is the second one this week. If theories hold true we should see the NAO going negative in a couple of weeks drastically changing the models and cold air flow bringing more winter like weather to us in February. 

I guess we will find out soon enough. I just hope the hair on the back of my neck is wrong and it isn't ice.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> On another note; An M9 class solar flare just ejected earthbound. CME should impact our geomagnetic field around Jan. 24-25th. This is the second one this week. If theories hold true we should see the NAO going negative in a couple of weeks drastically changing the models and cold air flow bringing more winter like weather to us in February.
> 
> I guess we will find out soon enough. I just hope the hair on the back of my neck is wrong and it isn't ice.



tell me you didnt say ICE!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> tell me you didnt say ICE!!!



I didn't say it. I typed it...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

For those of you interested in CME's and flares that cause them.

http://www.space.com/12847-sun-unleashes-massive-solar-flares.html

If you have a smart phone then look for the "3D Sun" app. It is free and updates you on all solar activity from the NASA / STEREO heliophysics division.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> On another note; An M9 class solar flare just ejected earthbound. CME should impact our geomagnetic field around Jan. 24-25th. This is the second one this week. If theories hold true we should see the NAO going negative in a couple of weeks drastically changing the models and cold air flow bringing more winter like weather to us in February.
> 
> I guess we will find out soon enough. I just hope the hair on the back of my neck is wrong and it isn't ice.



You mention this.. as Aimee and I are watching the movie 2012


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> On another note; An M9 class solar flare just ejected earthbound. CME should impact our geomagnetic field around Jan. 24-25th. This is the second one this week. If theories hold true we should see the NAO going negative in a couple of weeks drastically changing the models and cold air flow bringing more winter like weather to us in February.
> 
> I guess we will find out soon enough. I just hope the hair on the back of my neck is wrong and it isn't ice.



No thank you. We don't want any ice. You can have it all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> You mention this.. as Aimee and I are watching the movie 2012



It'll be more like 2014 before we see any effects similar to the Maunder Minimum, but hey, we've got to start somewhere...


----------



## Crickett (Jan 23, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> You mention this.. as Aimee and I are watching the movie 2012



I am watching it too!   Did you notice in the very beginning of the movie the little boy playing in the rain w/ the ship? To me it had an eerily similarance(sp?) to the cruise ship that just sank in Italy.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 23, 2012)

do do do do dodadodo ice ice baby.... 

yall do no 4wheelers and ice mix right!?

big parking lots , ice and Z71's mix also.... you can go driftin yo!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> do do do do dodadodo ice ice baby....
> 
> yall do no 4wheelers and ice mix right!?
> 
> big parking lots , ice and Z71's mix also.... you can go driftin yo!



I have a brother n law that tried that in the snow. He forgot that railroad track crossings aren't level with the terrain in a median.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have a brother n law that tried that in the snow. He forgot that railroad track crossings aren't level with the terrain in a median.



ouch!!!

i will get the atv out but the GMC is stayin in the driveway.


----------



## DDD (Jan 23, 2012)

Get a load of this Miguel.

http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

DDD said:


> Get a load of this Miguel.
> 
> http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html



Yep, BigOx and I were discussing this earlier. We were hoping for such an eruption to see if we could count the days between this and a swing in the NAO, if it happens. 

And IF it does happen, you're gonna be a busy little beaver...


----------



## Crickett (Jan 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For those of you interested in CME's and flares that cause them.
> 
> http://www.space.com/12847-sun-unleashes-massive-solar-flares.html
> 
> If you have a smart phone then look for the "3D Sun" app. It is free and updates you on all solar activity from the NASA / STEREO heliophysics division.



I downloaded the App today & it is really cool! I showed some of the movies in the photo gallery to my son & he thinks they are so cool! Thx MC


----------



## DDD (Jan 24, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, BigOx and I were discussing this earlier. We were hoping for such an eruption to see if we could count the days between this and a swing in the NAO, if it happens.
> 
> And IF it does happen, you're gonna be a busy little beaver...



EURO last night made me 

I hope the NAO goes negative...


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 24, 2012)

Miguel did you see that we have had another solar eruption? just a lil o M9 according to space.com


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 24, 2012)

Interesting some of the readings they're getting now that it's impacting the earth's magnetosphere... Delta is even rerouting planes to avoid it.  

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...rm-january-2012-1/60658#.Tx8FN0dGdZQ.facebook


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 24, 2012)

DDD said:


> EURO last night made me
> 
> I hope the NAO goes negative...



  

It WAS looking pretty good end part of next week for blocking to set up, but it's a tease like the 384 Hr GFS fantasy storms.  This is freakin horrible


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 24, 2012)

Aurora's not projected for this far south with this CME, but i'll be peaking outside around 11 or 12 tonight just to make sure..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 24, 2012)

Here's a pic of what the folks up in Alaska getting to enjoy.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/akfirebug/6743997473/


----------



## Keebs (Jan 25, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Aurora's not projected for this far south with this CME, but i'll be peaking outside around 11 or 12 tonight just to make sure..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2012)

Keebs said:


>



Redneck water skiing...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2012)

Looks like they got the high risk area for tonight correct.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2012)

Still 72 degrees in Tuscaloosa..............dangit man...


----------



## david w. (Jan 25, 2012)

I had to cut my grass in January.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Well boys and girls you better pay attention this afternoon.  This thing is more ramped up than thought 12 hours ago and it includes most of all of us.

From the NWS this morning:



> RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AS SYSTEM NEARS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GUIDANCE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDING INTO A LARGER AREA THAN THE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED REGION...GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO ATHENS TO VIDALIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE ALL POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


----------



## marknga (Jan 26, 2012)

Thanks DDD


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well boys and girls you better pay attention this afternoon.  This thing is more ramped up than thought 12 hours ago and it includes most of all of us.
> 
> From the NWS this morning:





Thanks triple D, sounds like a fun night in the mines tonight . . .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Thanks triple D, sounds like a fun night in the mines tonight . . .



As long as  you have your water wings and rubber ducky tube float you should be A-OK...


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As long as  you have your water wings and rubber ducky tube float you should be A-OK...



I thought a requirement of being around the campfire was to have waiders?  Manytimes I have to put mine on just to log into this place.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As long as  you have your water wings and rubber ducky tube float you should be A-OK...





DDD said:


> I thought a requirement of being around the campfire was to have waiders?  Manytimes I have to put mine on just to log into this place.





Might seem to be a lil amusing to ya'll, but being out in it with no choice in the matter is a different story.

Thanks for the info bro's.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well boys and girls you better pay attention this afternoon.  This thing is more ramped up than thought 12 hours ago and it includes most of all of us.
> 
> From the NWS this morning:



If this fog stays around until the advanced showers start moving in temps won't reach a point that brings the NWS updated concerns to fruition.

Based on the Cape, Cin and Lifted index, and taking current temps into consideration this is the area I would be most concerned with. NWS line in purple, my area is in gold. The one exception to my map, is the Cin and lifted index do have the Rome area in a slightly elevated potential, the cape is pretty much neutral across the board except for extreme SOWEGA


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS OFF WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN SE PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z THIS MORNING. ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
REACH CLOSE TO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

With this warm unstable air rocketing north and what looks to be the fog burning off... could we a rocky road after sun down tonight.

The other thing watching the loop... this thing is a slow mover with tons of moisture.


----------



## elfiii (Jan 26, 2012)

Can't we just have an ice storm instead?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
> THURSDAY MORNING STARTS OFF WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN SE PORTIONS OF
> THE CWA. EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z THIS MORNING. ADVECTION
> OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE
> ...



Psssssssst, it's passed 14z and the fog is still here..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

elfiii said:


> Can't we just have an ice storm instead?



Patience,,,,,,,,My hair on the neck forecast machine says that isn't out of the question yet this winter..


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

elfiii said:


> Can't we just have an ice storm instead?


 elfiii, lissen here, do we need to have a talk in the back room?!?!


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

elfiii said:


> Can't we just have an ice storm instead?



No.  I am just about ready to cancel this winter.  

Long range GFS and EURO both bring temps up next 10-14 days.  There is no blocking in Greenland, the ridge is still over Alaska which has things all screwed up down stream for us to have a real winter.



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Psssssssst, it's passed 14z and the fog is still here..



Maybe where you are but not over here.  



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Patience,,,,,,,,My hair on the neck forecast machine says that isn't out of the question yet this winter..



It's out of the question.  It's been an unbelievable winter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> It's out of the question.  It's been an unbelievable winter.


Wanna bet?


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> No.  I am just about ready to cancel this winter.
> Long range GFS and EURO both bring temps up next 10-14 days.  There is no blocking in Greenland, the ridge is still over Alaska which has things all screwed up down stream for us to have a real winter.
> Maybe where you are but not over here.
> It's out of the question.  It's been an unbelievable winter.


Is this where we blame Gore for global warming??????


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

elfiii said:


> Can't we just have an ice storm instead?




Bring it on!!  




Keebs said:


> elfiii, lissen here, do we need to have a talk in the back room?!?!





You ain`t gonna go hungry or get cold.  





I want cold weather and I want it NOW!!!!!  


I could do without them tornados though...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Bring it on!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You SOWEGA folk sure are a picky bunch...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You SOWEGA folk sure are a picky bunch...






Go ahead and send us about 2 feet of snow too. That oughter shut down this area purty good. I got a mean little Toyota truck I want to try out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Go ahead and send us about 2 feet of snow too. That oughter shut down this area purty good. I got a mean little Toyota truck I want to try out.



Just make sure you're on the road bed when you hit the railroad tracks...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just make sure you're on the road bed when you hit the railroad tracks...





You got that right!! `Specially that set of tracks crossin` at the plantation right down from the house.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wanna bet?



Sure.  This winter is TOAST.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> Sure.  This winter is TOAST.



OK, loser buys lunch at the winners choice of restaurants. 
Bet isn't over until the official end of winter, March 20th.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Bring it on!!
> You ain`t gonna go hungry or get cold.
> I want cold weather and I want it NOW!!!!!
> I could do without them tornados though...


I'll take the cold, I'll take the snow, but I don't want no tornado neither!
You say brang on the ice storm NOW 'cause ain't no way you have to be called out in it now!


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Keebs said:


> I'll take the cold, I'll take the snow, but I don't want no tornado neither!
> You say brang on the ice storm NOW 'cause ain't no way you have to be called out in it now!





Exactly!! My hooks, climbin` belt, steel shank boots, and electrical tools are officially retired!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Exactly!! My hooks, climbin` belt, steel shank boots, and electrical tools are officially retired!



You could prolly sell them to some idjit over on the marketplace that thinks climbing a tree with spikes is easier and safer than using a climbing stand..


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You could prolly sell them to some idjit over on the marketplace that thinks climbing a tree with spikes is easier and safer than using a climbing stand..





Great idea! And I have two sets of hooks. Even got a pair of tree gaffs to go with em.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Great idea! And I have two sets of hooks. Even got a pair of tree gaffs to go with em.



We always filed a double bevel on our spikes for pole climbin, made em' bit in deeper and faster, how about you?


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> OK, loser buys lunch at the winners choice of restaurants.
> Bet isn't over until the official end of winter, March 20th.



Says the man hoping for a 1960 redux 


I hope you're right


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Exactly!! My hooks, climbin` belt, steel shank boots, and electrical tools are officially retired!





Miguel Cervantes said:


> You could prolly sell them to some idjit over on the marketplace that thinks climbing a tree with spikes is easier and safer than using a climbing stand..


Hhhhmmmmm.................


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Says the man hoping for a 1960 redux
> 
> 
> I hope you're right



That would be snow, I'm talkin ice, you have to move up to the 1970's for that.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> OK, loser buys lunch at the winners choice of restaurants.
> Bet isn't over until the official end of winter, March 20th.



If it snows anywhere in Metro ATL or southward I will GLADLY buy you lunch.  

If it doesn't, I will meet you at Raferty's.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Hhhhmmmmm.................



Don't get any ideas, the last thing you need to experience is de-barking a tree from 20 foot up...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We always filed a double bevel on our spikes for pole climbin, made em' bit in deeper and faster, how about you?





I would just touch up and dress the underside of the gaff, so it wouldn`t "hawkbill". I would test em by holdin` it against the pole and try to drag it down. If it slid more than a quarte of an inch before bitin` in, I reworked the tip. I liked a slow gradual "roll" from the bevel to the tip of the gaff. It was a speedclimber tactic, even though I never pulled those stunts.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> If it snows anywhere in Metro ATL or southward I will GLADLY buy you lunch.
> 
> If it doesn't, I will meet you at Raferty's.



I'm makin it easy on you. I'm only talkin ICE, but if you wanna include snow, then are we talkin flurries? or a minimal accumulation? 

Too many dang parameters here. 

We've set the pay out, I think BigOx should set the parameters...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Hhhhmmmmm.................








NO!!! End of discussion.  



Those things will kill you.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> Sure.  This winter is TOAST.



Well...there goes Mark...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXpLHntqrI


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm makin it easy on you. I'm only talkin ICE, but if you wanna include snow, then are we talkin flurries? or a minimal accumulation?
> 
> Too many dang parameters here.
> 
> We've set the pay out, I think BigOx should set the parameters...



Pretty simple...the NWS has to record measurable IP, ZR, or SN from Metro ATL southward...A trace is measurable!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> I would just touch up and dress the underside of the gaff, so it wouldn`t "hawkbill". I would test em by holdin` it against the pole and try to drag it down. If it slid more than a quarte of an inch before bitin` in, I reworked the tip. I liked a slow gradual "roll" from the bevel to the tip of the gaff. It was a speedclimber tactic, even though I never pulled those stunts.



Well, I came down the fast way once, not on purpose, but sheet rot gave me no choice. Couldn't push away either, there was a speed limit sign four foot away on the ground behind me. Woulda dang split me in two.

Did get to see a buddy do the speed descent on gaffs though. We were working an outage, trying to narrow down the problem and were in line of site about six poles from each other, with another line of storms rolling in. The bond on the pole between his legs lit up on one lightning strike and he went from 40 feet to 0 feet in about three steps...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Well...there goes Mark...
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXpLHntqrI


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't get any ideas, the last thing you need to experience is de-barking a tree from 20 foot up...


 how 'bout just 10'???


Nicodemus said:


> I would just touch up and dress the underside of the gaff, so it wouldn`t "hawkbill". I would test em by holdin` it against the pole and try to drag it down. If it slid more than a quarte of an inch before bitin` in, I reworked the tip. I liked a slow gradual "roll" from the bevel to the tip of the gaff. It was a speedclimber tactic, even though I never pulled those stunts.


 how 'bout translatin that fer me??!


Nicodemus said:


> NO!!! End of discussion.
> Those things will kill you.


 ya'll won't let me have NO FUN!! ~stomping out slip style~


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Keebs said:


> how 'bout just 10'???
> 
> how 'bout translatin that fer me??!
> 
> ya'll won't let me have NO FUN!! ~stomping out slip style~


 10 ft of bark burried in your arms, legs and belly (and them other things) hurts just as bad as 20 ft of it.
But if you want to truly do it right, practice on a creosote pole. Nothing will teach you to keep your butt away from the tree like hundreds of pieces of what feels like a red hot blow torch diggin in to you like creosote will.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Well...there goes Mark...
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXpLHntqrI



Yep.  You should join me.  The water is warm.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 10 ft of bark burried in your arms, legs and belly (and them other things) hurts just as bad as 20 ft of it.
> But if you want to truly do it right, practice on a creosote pole. Nothing will teach you to keep your butt away from the tree like hundreds of pieces of what feels like a red hot blow torch diggin in to you like creosote will.


 NEVER MIND!!  I DO know about creosote posts!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

2 tornado warnings in Alabama now... 

And this out from the NWS just now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Pretty much were the temps are already at 70, or close to that mark are where I'd expect it to be a little rougher.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

This will only grow East and North, IMHO.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 10 ft of bark burried in your arms, legs and belly (and them other things) hurts just as bad as 20 ft of it.
> But if you want to truly do it right, practice on a creosote pole. Nothing will teach you to keep your butt away from the tree like hundreds of pieces of what feels like a red hot blow torch diggin in to you like creosote will.



I remember my stepson coming home a few years ago with no shirt front, no britches legs hardly left in front, tore up from the insides of his arms and chin down his chest and legs to the top of his boots with ten thousand creosoted splinters in him. He said that was still better than a twenty -foot vertical drop without hugging the pole.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> I remember my stepson coming home a few years ago with no shirt front, no britches legs hardly left in front, tore up from the insides of his arms and chin down his chest and legs to the top of his boots with ten thousand creosoted splinters in him. He said that was still better than a twenty -foot vertical drop without hugging the pole.



I bet he never made that mistake a second time...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet he never made that mistake a second time...



Nope.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Outside of a brief tornado warning that didn't produce anything but a bit of meso activity the major problems associated with this front this morning have been wind gust and pretty active lightening in the southern half of Alabama.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Can you guess where the sun has broken through the clouds? Pushing 80 in Albany!! Those are the areas I'd be watching for sure.


----------



## Keebs (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Can you guess where the sun has broken through the clouds? Pushing 80 in Albany!! Those are the areas I'd be watching for sure.
> 
> View attachment 646490


when the sun came out here, I was afraid you'd be pointing that out!


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Sun is out in Kennesaw...


----------



## Hornet22 (Jan 26, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> I remember my stepson coming home a few years ago with no shirt front, no britches legs hardly left in front, tore up from the insides of his arms and chin down his chest and legs to the top of his boots with ten thousand creosoted splinters in him. He said that was still better than a twenty -foot vertical drop without hugging the pole.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet he never made that mistake a second time...



Rode a hi-line pole to the ground in '86. Didn't make that mistake again either. Haven't been up a pole since.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Kffc radar down for install of a major part. Estimated time back in service is 20z.  

Looks like GB will have to use his dual pole!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 26, 2012)

Only 51 up here and we already have almost a half inch of rain.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Outside of a brief tornado warning that didn't produce anything but a bit of meso activity the major problems associated with this front this morning have been wind gust and pretty active lightening in the southern half of Alabama.



I read in one of the discos where the straight line winds will be a bigger issue than the tornaders.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 26, 2012)

sure is warm!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

...a tornado warning remains in effect for northeastern autauga and

southeastern chilton counties until 115 pm cst...



At 1252 pm cst...the public reported a tornado on the ground near

county 82 and county road 37...just southwest of billingsley...

Moving northeast at 35 mph.



Locations impacted include...

Clanton...marbury...verbena...higgins ferry park...new prospect...

Enterprise...cooper and mitchell dam.



This includes...

Interstate 65 exit numbers 193 through 208...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

DDD said:


> Kffc radar down for install of a major part. Estimated time back in service is 20z.
> 
> Looks like GB will have to use his dual pole!



The KATL TDWR is workin fine..


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Alabama can not catch a break.


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The KATL TDWR is workin fine..





http://weather.noaa.gov/monitor/radar/


----------



## DDD (Jan 26, 2012)

Hmmm... strong line of storms in the gulf has put a block in the fuel line.

This line of rain is about to fall apart.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Time to start watchin the SOWEGA cells. There are some respectable storms coming onshore out of the gulf. 20k height with 26k tops. This should get interesting.

NIC!!! Turn your dang phone on...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Have mercy!! Phone is on...text me when to dive in a coyote den or gopher hole!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Have mercy!! Phone is on...text me when to dive in a coyote den or gopher hole!



We had this discussion the other day and concluded that you'd fair better in yote den...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 26, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We had this discussion the other day and concluded that you'd fair better in yote den...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

There's a corridor of temps from Marianna to Bainbridge to Albany that should aid these cells in sustaining their tops once the line comes ashore around Tyndall AFB. I'll be glued to the radar to see if this develops or not. There's a ton of lightning popping with these bad boys.


----------



## Hardwoods (Jan 26, 2012)

How much lightning IMBY?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Hardwoods said:


> How much lightning IMBY?



50 distant strikes and 4 real close ones......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Marianna getting the first line now. The hairy stuff is about 20 or 30 minutes behind it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2012)

Does this look familiar...


----------



## Greene728 (Jan 26, 2012)

Todays system really fizzled out. Thats good too cause I didnt wanna scrape all the gravel outta of the yard and back into the driveway twice in the same week....


----------



## DDD (Jan 27, 2012)

Greene728 said:


> Todays system really fizzled out. Thats good too cause I didnt wanna scrape all the gravel outta of the yard and back into the driveway twice in the same week....



Strong line of convection in the gulf really robbed the system upstream.

I quit posting about it once I saw that line of convection and saw the moisture totals on the radar start to decrease.  It was over at that point.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

Massive X-2 solar flare erupted out of 1402 this afternoon sparking S1 class radiation storm currently in progress here on earth. The CME may glance earth but we won't know until the 28th or 29th.

Great video of the eruption here;

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/27jan12/cme_c2.gif?PHPSESSID=64i2r0t0aec76lebk7tupr3rp1


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 4, 2012)

Heads up for the pm.



SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION 006
TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER
TheWeatherSpace.com
2:20 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR PORTIONS OF ...

NORTHERN ALABAMA ...
NORTHWEST GEORGIA ...

EFFECTIVE NOW ... 

DISCUSSION ... WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

A MESOLOW FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE, AND INTO SOME OF EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA ... 

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS, WITHOUT BEING A LARGER SCALE EVENT ... AN ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED AND THIS WILL BE FINE ... *CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP IN THE REGION.*


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2012)

Please Lord let this years STS season be as boring as this winter has been.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 6, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Please Lord let this years STS season be as boring as this winter has been.



x2. I was about ready to dig me a big hole in the ground to live in last year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2012)

***Severe Weather Awareness Week***

Y'all read this, they have changed the parameters of what defines a Severe Thunderstorm (finally!!!)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=swaw_thunder


----------



## david w. (Feb 7, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> ***Severe Weather Awareness Week***
> 
> Y'all read this, they have changed the parameters of what defines a Severe Thunderstorm (finally!!!)
> 
> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=swaw_thunder



Will do!


----------



## Naturegirl (Feb 8, 2012)

Does this mean the sirens won't be going off every time there is a thunderstorm in the area??  Will they hold off til it's actually something to be worried about??  

I'm thinking some people regard the sirens much like the boy who cried wolf.  I had to retire my weather alert radio because if there was rain with a little wind in the area, it wouldn't shut up.  I live near Alabama and it starts there and wouldn't quit until East Georgia sounded the all clear.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2012)

Not real impressed with the combination of crossover shear, cape/cin values, lifted index values, surface temps vs. 850mb temps and all around scenario coming together for Thursday. 

It certainly won't be anything like a supercell outbreak, but it could get a little rocky at some point Thursday afternoon and evening...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 15, 2012)

Still not liking the setup for tomorrow afternoon. 500mb high winds out of the dead west, 850 mb winds out of the SW and surface winds out of the SSE. Plenty of vertical vorticity and the cape/cin and lifted index all looking conducive for a rocky ride.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Feb 15, 2012)

What areas in GA?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 15, 2012)

Temperatures are going to be the major facilitator for enhancing volatility within the cells. 24 hours out from now? Mid to SE Mississippi / all of Alabama and all of Georgia with the NE quadrant of Georgia least likely to see rough weather (as it stands now)

We'll see how things shape up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 15, 2012)

Here is the convective outlook for tomorrow, the only disagreement I have with it is the cold air wedge that will take some of the energy out of the system in the area I have outlined in blue.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 15, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here is the convective outlook for tomorrow, the only disagreement I have with it is the cold air wedge that will take some of the energy out of the system in the area I have outlined in blue.
> 
> View attachment 650906



Good, because I live inside the area that you outlined in blue!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 15, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Good, because I live inside the area that you outlined in blue!



Smurf..


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## pbradley (Feb 15, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here is the convective outlook for tomorrow, the only disagreement I have with it is the cold air wedge that will take some of the energy out of the system in the area I have outlined in blue.
> 
> View attachment 650906



I have to drive through that tomorrow.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2012)

pbradley said:


> I have to drive through that tomorrow.



Awesome..


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 16, 2012)

Saturday looks like it could get interesting down there in central/south Ga.


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## mrs. hornet22 (Feb 16, 2012)

That's just GREAT. I'm going to the Ga. Coast for the weekend.
So, now that this weekend is shot, tell me bout the weather on the S.C. Coast first of June before I make my vacation plans.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 17, 2012)

Hey SOWEGA folk. Y'all make sure you got your plugs in your boats and batteries charged up...


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## Nicodemus (Feb 17, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey SOWEGA folk. Y'all make sure you got your plugs in your boats and batteries charged up...
> 
> View attachment 651283





Yep. Done put all my plans on hold and stayin` here at the house. Might end up puttin` my trucks in the barn too.


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## SGADawg (Feb 18, 2012)

Hey Miguel, how about an update?  Especially down here in south-central Ga.  We've got an outdoor/big tent wedding reception east of Pearson this afternoon.  We gonna get blown away or drown?


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## RUTTNBUCK (Feb 18, 2012)

SGADawg said:


> Hey Miguel, how about an update?  Especially down here in south-central Ga.  We've got an outdoor/big tent wedding reception east of Pearson this afternoon.  We gonna get blown away or drown?


From the looks of that last map Miguel posted..............Both!!


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## jf950y (Feb 18, 2012)

Miguel is this system coming in later than expected? Is that going to bring the bad stuff more north ? Its warming up quickly with the sun peaking thru!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 18, 2012)

SGADawg said:


> Hey Miguel, how about an update?  Especially down here in south-central Ga.  We've got an outdoor/big tent wedding reception east of Pearson this afternoon.  We gonna get blown away or drown?



Sorry, been working all day. I guess you've already figured this one out...



jf950y said:


> Miguel is this system coming in later than expected? Is that going to bring the bad stuff more north ? Its warming up quickly with the sun peaking thru!



No. No. Don't think so. 

Hope that helped.


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## Sultan of Slime (Feb 18, 2012)

It's coming right at us!!


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## SGADawg (Feb 18, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sorry, been working all day. I guess you've already figured this one out...
> 
> You're a lot of help.
> 
> We made it through a 5:30 outside wedding and well into the reception before it starting drizzling.  I'm glad this thing slowed down for the bride's sake but I sure hope we get a lot of rain now that that's over.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 19, 2012)

We got 3 and 6/10ths inches of rain last night. Along with with a fair amount of wind, thunder and lightnin`.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 19, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> We got 3 and 6/10ths inches of rain last night. Along with with a fair amount of wind, thunder and lightnin`.



That should bring the ponds and rivers up a tick or two.


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## gobbleinwoods (Feb 19, 2012)

1.2 inches here.


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## krisjack (Feb 19, 2012)

4 inches around my house.might of been more than that lol.The big rolling mop bucket was overflowing this morning.It was totally empy before the storm came lol.


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## SGADawg (Feb 19, 2012)

Our guage just north of Douglas had exactly 2" this morning.  Wind or lightning wasn't bad here, but I understand that most or all of Pearson is still without power tonight, almost 24 hours after the storm.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 20, 2012)

Looks like us folks north of the gnat line will be getting a good soaking in a few days, and there's no wedgie in place to break it apart this time. Might even see a flake of white stuff on the back side of this one, but I wouldn't count on it.


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## TurkeyKiller12 (Feb 20, 2012)

Thanks for the model data! Whats your opinion on the severe weather risk going into friday with this system? I was reading Spanns blog and he noted that the STP was really high for area around memphis to muscle shoals. Just wondering how much severe weather we will see.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 20, 2012)

CanyonHunter said:


> Thanks for the model data! Whats your opinion on the severe weather risk going into friday with this system? I was reading Spanns blog and he noted that the STP was really high for area around memphis to muscle shoals. Just wondering how much severe weather we will see.



I read that too. I'm going to reserve opinions for our SWT until Wednesday, when the dynamics are within NAM range.


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## DDD (Feb 21, 2012)




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## DDD (Feb 21, 2012)

and


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## Paymaster (Feb 22, 2012)

Need a bump here. What is in store for today?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

Paymaster said:


> Need a bump here. What is in store for today?



I keep hearing the locals on TV screaming "isolated Wolf" for this afternoon. The funny thing is, if this cloud cover stays put temps will not grant them their wish, plus I just don't see the dynamics being in place for them to get their wish either.

I especially find their alarm-ism interesting given the recent change in rules for declarations of severe weather and reduction in parameters. 

I guess we'll find out this afternoon huh?


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## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Feb 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I keep hearing the locals on TV screaming "isolated Wolf" for this afternoon. The funny thing is, if this cloud cover stays put temps will not grant them their wish, plus I just don't see the dynamics being in place for them to get their wish either.
> 
> I especially find their alarm-ism interesting given the recent change in rules for declarations of severe weather and reduction in parameters.
> 
> I guess we'll find out this afternoon huh?



Please enlighten me as to the "recent change in rules for declarations of severe weather and reduction in parameters."  I am unaware of this.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> Please enlighten me as to the "recent change in rules for declarations of severe weather and reduction in parameters."  I am unaware of this.



http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=6705928&postcount=463


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I keep hearing the locals on TV screaming "isolated Wolf" for this afternoon. The funny thing is, if this cloud cover stays put temps will not grant them their wish, plus I just don't see the dynamics being in place for them to get their wish either.
> 
> I especially find their alarm-ism interesting given the recent change in rules for declarations of severe weather and reduction in parameters.
> 
> I guess we'll find out this afternoon huh?



Well, they just issued a severe thunderstorm _warning_ for about twenty counties in TN-pretty much the entire eastern part of the state, and there's nothing all that severe even showing up on radar at the moment. Never seen that before.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Well, they just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for about twenty counties in TN-pretty much the entire eastern part of the state, and there's nothing all that severe even showing up on radar at the moment.



Yeah, I told the other two jacklegged weather geeks on here...... that I figured if there was any hinky weather it'd be north or south of us. So far that's all there's been.

Even the NWS isn't real confident in the cut-off low currently over Baja being able to break loose and head our way for some Tim Peeler weather. I'm kinda leaning towards their doubts as well. 

This doesn't mean you apple pie drankers up in the hills won't get a chunk of hail or two though, I'm just talkin bout us flatlanders.


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 22, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I told the other two jacklegged weather geeks on here...... that I figured if there was any hinky weather it'd be north or south of us. So far that's all there's been.
> 
> Even the NWS isn't real confident in the cut-off low currently over Baja being able to break loose and head our way for some Tim Peeler weather. I'm kinda leaning towards their doubts as well.
> 
> This doesn't mean you apple pie drankers up in the hills won't get a chunk of hail or two though, I'm just talkin bout us flatlanders.



Us way back in the hills don't believe in pollutin' perfectly good likker with apples and sech.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Us way back in the hills don't believe in pollutin' perfectly good likker with apples and sech.



Well down here if it ain't apple pie or the such then it's called Ethenol and the Government goons mix it with the gasoline...


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## shakey gizzard (Feb 22, 2012)

Hello, its hail'n!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Hello, its hail'n!



Yeah, and? Remember, if it isn't 1 inch or larger hail, it isn't a Severe Thunderstorm..


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, and? Remember, if it isn't 1 inch or larger hail, it isn't a Severe Thunderstorm..



That always makes me feel much better to remember that when there's lightining striking down all around every three seconds and my garden is being shredded by large quantities of 15/16" hail and my roof is blown off by 57 mph winds.


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## Jeff Phillips (Feb 23, 2012)

I'm in Denver and the storm we have coming in passed through here last night. 80 mile per hour winds rattled the hotel all night and got up to 4" of fresh snow...


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## texwilliams (Feb 23, 2012)

Are we looking at any potential severe weather this evening?


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## DDD (Feb 23, 2012)

I don't like the sound of this...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN
COLUMBUS...EAST INTO MACON. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REPRESENT
THIS. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. AS
SUCH...POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT 12Z RUC DEWPOINTS THAT
WERE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS
MEANT THAT SOME AREAS SAW AN INCREASE OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN
DEWPOINT TEMPS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY DRYING US OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUCH BELIEVE THAT THE 06Z NAM MIGHT BE UNDER
REPRESENTING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE TO
BETTER PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPS TO BETTER REPRESENT
CURRENT WARMING TRENDS.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 23, 2012)

texwilliams said:


> Are we looking at any potential severe weather this evening?



Hit and miss, just like last night, but contrary to last night, and given these temps and wind (not to mention the hair on the back of my neck) I would bet on more wide spread trouble tonight.

Here's where the NWS thinks we should be watching.


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## Hooked On Quack (Feb 23, 2012)

Laaaaaawd, I hope this one misses us tonight !!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 23, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Laaaaaawd, I hope this one misses us tonight !!!



You workin?


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## Nicodemus (Feb 23, 2012)

Looks like for once, we`re in the halfway clear down this way. You folks up yonder keep your heads down.


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## Hooked On Quack (Feb 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You workin?






Yep !!!   11 more hours.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 23, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Yep !!!   11 more hours.



Maybe it'll stay north of you. I hate night time storms, it really messes up my sleep...


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## Keebs (Feb 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maybe it'll stay north of you. I hate night time storms, it really messes up my sleep...


 yeah it does!


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## Hooked On Quack (Feb 23, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maybe it'll stay north of you. I hate night time storms, it really messes up my sleep...





Mine too !!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 23, 2012)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Mine too !!


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## Matt.M (Feb 23, 2012)

Those clouds are low and movin' fast........


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## SnowHunter (Feb 23, 2012)

This wind needs to stop  It tore my lil greenhouse plastic to bits


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2012)

Watchin the storms just starting to fire up in East Ms and West Al. Shouldn't be long until we see what we're gonna get.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 24, 2012)

Any change in what`s gonna happen down here, Hugh?


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## shakey gizzard (Feb 24, 2012)

Looks like the bad stuff is B lining towards Athens!


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## SnowHunter (Feb 24, 2012)

shakey gizzard said:


> Looks like the bad stuff is B lining towards Athens!



As long as it doesn't come farther north!!!!!


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## gobbleinwoods (Feb 24, 2012)

Right over me currently.  Thunder and electricity that goes with it and a frog strangling rain.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Any change in what`s gonna happen down here, Hugh?



Not sure yet Nic. Middle Ga. is getting their fair share of bad storms right now.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 24, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not sure yet Nic. Middle Ga. is getting their fair share of bad storms right now.




It`s just partly cloudy here right now, 78 degrees and humid as all get out. And the wind is blowin` something fierce.

And dust devils are runnin` all over the fields in front and behind the house.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2012)

A couple of Tornado warnings about and the cell that just came through Barnesville and across I75 was showing good rotation couplets on the storm velocity mode of radar.


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## Keebs (Feb 24, 2012)

Hey, MC, is this gonna sag south or stay on it's present course?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Hey, MC, is this gonna sag south or stay on it's present course?



Don't know how far south the front will move, but if it makes it down your way it will bring the storms with it.


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## david w. (Feb 24, 2012)

Man!It got rough here.


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## Keebs (Feb 24, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't know how far south the front will move, but if it makes it down your way it will bring the storms with it.


 10-4 I'm keeping my eye on it............


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## Da Possum (Feb 24, 2012)

We gots us a little bit of sunshine here in Lawrenceville


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## Hooked On Quack (Feb 24, 2012)

Dark skies, BLOWING wind, and hard rain . . .


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## safebuilder (Feb 24, 2012)

rolled half of my shop roof up today about 1030 north of Monticello


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## huntinglady74 (Feb 24, 2012)

Heck of a day,  Storm damage moderate around Troup County a lot of hail power outage on and off ten or fifteen times total here at the house it ripped my storm door off in my carport, dumped my Webber Gas grill over and slid it about four feet on its side, sent most of my patio funiture for a dip in my pool.  Needless to say all the branches and linb debris that I will more than likely spend the next couple of days picking up and No I did not measure the hail but let me tell from first hand accounting that it had to be the size of a nickle. well thats my strom update from Troup County (Rosemont Area)


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## huntinglady74 (Feb 24, 2012)

As soon as I get settled I will post pic of the storm door at the carport......Wild......Wild......Wild


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 26, 2012)

huntinglady74 said:


> Heck of a day,  Storm damage moderate around Troup County a lot of hail power outage on and off ten or fifteen times total here at the house it ripped my storm door off in my carport, dumped my Webber Gas grill over and slid it about four feet on its side, sent most of my patio funiture for a dip in my pool.  Needless to say all the branches and linb debris that I will more than likely spend the next couple of days picking up and No I did not measure the hail but let me tell from first hand accounting that it had to be the size of a nickle. well thats my strom update from Troup County (Rosemont Area)





huntinglady74 said:


> As soon as I get settled I will post pic of the storm door at the carport......Wild......Wild......Wild



Make sure you post all of that over there:

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=670203

So we can keep up with dates and times of what happened when and where. Thanks!!


On to this week. The models are currently showing a similar set up to this past weeks, with the exception that the current energy will be from N. Ark, Ms, Al, Ga and mainly up into Tn and points north of us. However the sfc -500mb shear and lifted index are favorable for some more rough weather here in Ga should this track favor a more southerly direction. The timing is between sometimes early Wednesday morning into Thursday morning at this point.

Further runs will nail it down as we get closer. Looks like another busy STS season.

What am I talking about?? It never ended from last year...

I'm starting a 2012 Severe Weather Thread so y'all jump over there please.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 26, 2012)

Hugh, do you want me to lock this one down?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 26, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh, do you want me to lock this one down?



Just sent you a PM.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 26, 2012)

New weather thread here...

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=677204


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