# ***General Weather Discussion Thread #7 ***



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 11, 2017)

Alrighty girls and boys. Here's the new one to lead us into cooler weather hopefully.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 12, 2017)

Just come in here to show off the new avatar..... Eatcher hearts out!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 12, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Just come in here to show off the new avatar..... Eatcher hearts out!


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## blood on the ground (Aug 12, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


>



Thanks bro


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 12, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Thanks bro


The even make a beer for the event.


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## Lukikus2 (Aug 12, 2017)

Yep


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 13, 2017)

Looks like DDD may have his work cut out this winter. 
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/896913785025290240


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## smokey30725 (Aug 14, 2017)

Dang it was hot yesterday. Took my son and our jon boat out to a local pond to try our luck. It was overcast with a nice breeze, but as soon as the boat hit the water, the skies parted, the sun came out, the breeze stopped, and the humidity was awful. At least we each caught a nice bass and he fought a large carp for a while until it got loose. I'm ready for fall...................


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 14, 2017)

Its really not as hot as last year lol. Swam at the pool and was chilly when youd get out. Im ready for an early fall! YEYE


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## Crakajak (Aug 15, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Just come in here to show off the new avatar..... Eatcher hearts out!


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## Bob Shaw (Aug 15, 2017)

Shoot, you guys talking about fall already... I'm heading for Florida.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 15, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like DDD may have his work cut out this winter.
> https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/896913785025290240



That dude has no shame and the media folks like Sean Hannity praise him and give him too many free passes. I can't recall one Winter forecast that he got even close to right! 
I'd put the GON weather dudes up against him any day of the week....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 15, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> That dude has no shame and the media folks like Sean Hannity praise him and give him too many free passes. I can't recall one Winter forecast that he got even close to right!
> I'd put the GON weather dudes up against him any day of the week....



Joe is one of the best, and one of those who DDD follows for a lot of his info. Joe nailed the current hurricane development cycle weeks before it showed up. Joe *******i, Ryan Maue are two of the prominant brains behind WeatherBell analytics. You will most certainly see DDD mention that site as he references the coming season. 

One thing that is missing so far to make me believe in a better winter are sunspots. We have been void of them for the most part for a long time now. An increase in activity would give me more confidence in a more wintry forecast.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 15, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Joe is one of the best, and one of those who DDD follows for a lot of his info. Joe nailed the current hurricane development cycle weeks before it showed up. Joe *******i, Ryan Maue are two of the prominant brains behind WeatherBell analytics. You will most certainly see DDD mention that site as he references the coming season.
> 
> One thing that is missing so far to make me believe in a better winter are sunspots. We have been void of them for the most part for a long time now. An increase in activity would give me more confidence in a more wintry forecast.



Still not a fan... Sorry bro!


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## Nicodemus (Aug 15, 2017)

I`m hoping we have a tooth busting cold winter. We haven`t had a decent winter since 2009 and 2010.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 15, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I`m hoping we have a tooth busting cold winter. We haven`t had a decent winter since 2009 and 2010.



Absolutely!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 15, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Still not a fan... Sorry bro!



Don't be confusing him with some of those NC weathermen who constantly scream blizzard for us while we are sweating in the mid-day sun.


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## keithsto (Aug 16, 2017)

Hope all those folks who rented out cabins, hotels, etc in the mountains for the eclipse made sure to say no refunds & cancellations.  NWS cloud cover forecast not looking great.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 16, 2017)

It's a gamble. Here is the 8am gfs cloudcover map vs the 4pm cloud cover map. 











And the 8am precip map vs the 4pm precip map.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 17, 2017)

Somebody teased y'all by saying we were done with the 90's. I checked my station data for the month and it said we have had 6 days in a row of 90 or over, with yesterday bumping 98. Just to verify I plugged in to an archive site for Athens weather for August thus far and here's what I found.


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## Crakajak (Aug 17, 2017)

Can you use a welding helmet to look at the eclispe without burning your corneas?


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## Crakajak (Aug 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Somebody teased y'all by saying we were done with the 90's. I checked my station data for the month and it said we have had 6 days in a row of 90 or over, with yesterday bumping 98. Just to verify I plugged in to an archive site for Athens weather for August thus far and here's what I found.



We will start to cool off within the next several weeks. October looks promising for cooler temps.
Man its hot!!!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 17, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Can you use a welding helmet to look at the eclispe without burning your corneas?


NASA / NOAA says that any welding goggles or helmets have to have a shade rating of a #12 at a minimum to look at the eclipse but highly recommends a #13 or #14 ideally. 
I've heard others recommend higher shade ratings, but good luck finding them. 



Crakajak said:


> We will start to cool off within the next several weeks. *October looks promising for cooler temps*.
> Man its hot!!!!!



Well duhhh.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 17, 2017)

How the eclipse will effect temps in areas of 100% occlusion. From the N. Ga. Wx facebook page.


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## Crakajak (Aug 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> NASA / NOAA says that any welding goggles or helmets have to have a shade rating of a #12 at a minimum to look at the eclipse but highly recommends a #13 or #14 ideally.
> I've heard others recommend higher shade ratings, but good luck finding them.
> 
> Thanks for the info.
> ...


Just trying to do my good deed for the day.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 17, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Just trying to do my good deed for the day.



Thank you Captain Obvious...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 17, 2017)

Stackin them up light flights coming into Hartsfield.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 18, 2017)

Summer isn't over yet folks. In fact this is typically the hottest period of the summer. Heed these warning signs, drink plenty of water and do not push yourself, or others if you are a rec league or school coach.


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## Crakajak (Aug 18, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Summer isn't over yet folks. In fact this is typically the hottest period of the summer. Heed these warning signs, drink plenty of water and do not push yourself, or others if you are a rec league or school coach.



Great information !


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 18, 2017)

You can't forecast clouds, but you can speculate what may be. Here's the nam updated cloud cover guess for 15z on Monday (closest time to the eclipse)






And here's the precip map for the same period.


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## Crakajak (Aug 18, 2017)

I think I am moving to the North pole 6o for highs 40 for low.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 18, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> I think I am moving to the North pole 6o for highs 40 for low.



You might want to double check that data.


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## Crakajak (Aug 18, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You might want to double check that data.



Northpole Alaska not Santa claus North pole. Thank for catching that.He would probably put me to work anyway.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 18, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Northpole Alaska not Santa claus North pole. Thank for catching that.He would probably put me to work anyway.



Which is nowhere near even the northern boundaries of Alaska 

I like the Prudhoe Bay temps and forecast better. 

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Prudhoe+Bay+AK+USAK0197:1:US


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## Crakajak (Aug 18, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Which is nowhere near even the northern boundaries of Alaska
> 
> I like the Prudhoe Bay temps and forecast better.
> 
> https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Prudhoe+Bay+AK+USAK0197:1:US



40s/30s is fine with me.
I was checking to see who knew there is a Northpole Alaska.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 18, 2017)

Man it would be so nice to feel 40 degrees right now!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 20, 2017)

Well, if the CFS is to be believed opening day of Dove season might be a little wet and temps will be very comfortable.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 20, 2017)

Current NAM projection for Eclipse viewing cloud cover at 2pm on Monday.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 20, 2017)

Bring on freezing pipe and running outa firewood weather!


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## gobbleinwoods (Aug 20, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on freezing pipe and running outa firewood weather!



agree.   just walking the trash can to the end of the drive is sweating weather


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## Patriot44 (Aug 20, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Man it would be so nice to feel 40 degrees right now!



Was in England last week and went for a long stroll Monday morning before work and it was 49. Absolutely lovely, M8! Never got above 70 all week and consistently in the low 50's every night and was in a hoodie every night and every morning. 

Came home on Friday to this...Ugh..


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

The best coverage of the eclipse you will see anywhere, and see it before it happens in Ga. 

https://www.nasa.gov/eclipselive/#NASA+TV+-+Eclipse+Views+(Raw+Feed)


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## DDD (Aug 21, 2017)

There is no snow in the forecast for today.  Contrary to internet rumors it will not get cold enough in the shadow of the moon to snow.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

DDD said:


> There is no snow in the forecast for today.  Contrary to internet rumors it will not get cold enough in the shadow of the moon to snow.



Yeah, but just wait, it will go dark for 15 days in November.


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## Crakajak (Aug 21, 2017)

DDD said:


> There is no snow in the forecast for today.  Contrary to internet rumors it will not get cold enough in the shadow of the moon to snow.



Thread killer.


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## Crakajak (Aug 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, but just wait, it will go dark for 15 days in November.



So snow for the 16th of Nov IMBY?????????


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

GAhhhh, Nasa live streaming isn't working. 

And they want us to believe they can put a man on Mars.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

West coast coverage
http://www.ustream.tv/nasahdtv


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## Patriot44 (Aug 21, 2017)

Bood, you on da roof? It a coming. You got plenty of beer...wake up, blood, wake up!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Bood, you on da roof? It a coming. You got plenty of beer...wake up, blood, wake up!



He only does that for cataclysmic events.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Aug 21, 2017)

Cloudy on the SC side of the river.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

Done, in Oregon.


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## Patriot44 (Aug 21, 2017)

Moon is touching good now. Reporting 1klick east of blood.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

Cooled down to 88 degrees here, from a high of 98 so far IMBY.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

It's over, go back to work  you lazy bums.


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## elfiii (Aug 21, 2017)

What a ripoff!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

elfiii said:


> What a ripoff!



The government lessened it's intensity to appease the protesters that were offended by it.


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## Patriot44 (Aug 21, 2017)

I paid 50 bucks for stupid glasses to see that? The only payoff was that it cooled down to September.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

Dove Season Opening Day update:

Both GFS and CFS agree it will be in the mid to upper 60's, but expect low 70's. Both beats the heck out of 80's and 90's. Both also agree on a very small chance of rain. 

Will update a couple times a week as we get closer, especially when the NAM comes in range.


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## fountain (Aug 21, 2017)

^ is that highs or lows?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 21, 2017)

fountain said:


> ^ is that highs or lows?



12z would be 8am est. Won't get good temp levels until we get into the NAM range in another week. Then we can look at the 18z, which will be projected 2pm temps. 

GFS and CFS only project 00z and 12z temps. 8pm and 8am


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 22, 2017)

Let's clear up a few things. 

#1 There was no sunset eclipse jump at Ft. Bragg yesterday. 

#2 Nothing that Venus or Jupiter will do can effect the Sun. We are not going to have 15 days of darkness in November. 

Geesh people, stop being so gullible.


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## smokey30725 (Aug 22, 2017)

Next week looks like lower temps for a change. Hallelujah!!! Come on fall!! It's getting old sweating through my clothes every day when I walk into the mill.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 22, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Next week looks like lower temps for a change. Hallelujah!!! Come on fall!! It's getting old sweating through my clothes every day when I walk into the mill.



Well, it IS the middle of August ya know!!!


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 22, 2017)

Last day in the 90s for up here so the weather man on tv said


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## Crakajak (Aug 23, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Last day in the 90s for up here so the weather man on tv said



He is lying. There will be more.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> He is lying. There will be more.



That's what I was thinking, but didn't hear or see the actual forecast he was referencing, so I refrained.


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 23, 2017)

He said there may be a hot day or two in sept but itll be short lived but hes expecting high 80s to mid 80s here on


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> He said there may be a hot day or two in sept but itll be short lived but hes expecting high 80s to mid 80s here on



In general I would agree with him, but were I a pro-met, I would never make that claim on TV, knowing the history of our temperatures year in and year out. 

Those are the kind of simple claims that make people not like you when they don't materialize.


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 23, 2017)

Since its been pretty cool relative to our usual heat here this year I can see it happening. Maybe a day or two early sept but not like usual. They are calling for mid 80s for the next 7 days I know. If hes wrong and we get a week of 90s instead of 2 days ill take at least its not another month of them ha


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Since its been pretty cool relative to our usual heat here this year I can see it happening. Maybe a day or two early sept but not like usual. They are calling for mid 80s for the next 7 days I know. If hes wrong and we get a week of 90s instead of 2 days ill take at least its not another month of them ha


You are correct. Come September we will have 5 degree cooler weather with high humidity. 

So much better.


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## elfiii (Aug 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You are correct. Come September we will have 5 degree cooler weather with high humidity.
> 
> So much better.



That 5 degrees is a lot. 85 sounds so much better than 90 and you can almost feel the difference.


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 23, 2017)

I think we will be playing George Strait- Chill of an early fall pretty soon!


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## blood on the ground (Aug 23, 2017)

Bring on pipe freezing cold!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on pipe freezing cold!



You are consistent, if nothing else.


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## Nicodemus (Aug 23, 2017)

I want it so cold down here that if you walk outside and grin, it`ll bust your teeth.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I want it so cold down here that if you walk outside and grin, it`ll bust your teeth.



You ain't askin for much are you?


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## Nicodemus (Aug 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You ain't askin for much are you?





Well, it can warm up to to the high 20s-low 30s for the high during the day.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Well, it can warm up to to the high 20s-low 30s for the high during the day.


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## Crakajak (Aug 23, 2017)

I can always put on more clothes but nobody wants to see me nekkid.Bring on the cold.


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## StriperrHunterr (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I want it so cold down here that if you walk outside and grin, it`ll bust your teeth.



They have a place for that. It's called Canadia.


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## Nicodemus (Aug 23, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> They have a place for that. It's called Canadia.





Those folks that worship a so called queen and royalty, and kneel before them, well, we wouldn`t get along none at all.


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## StriperrHunterr (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Those folks that worship a so called queen and royalty, and kneel before them, well, we wouldn`t get along none at all.



I don't know about that worship aspect, but the kneeling, that's going to be a problem. (Leonidas for those playing the home game)


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## blood on the ground (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I want it so cold down here that if you walk outside and grin, it`ll bust your teeth.



Yeah what he said!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Those folks that worship a so called queen and royalty, and kneel before them, well, we wouldn`t get along none at all.



I've met a few of them. I'm not too impressed. They are more high and mighty on themselves than our Yankees are.


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## NCHillbilly (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Well, it can warm up to to the high 20s-low 30s for the high during the day.



That sounds like bout November-April here. It gets mighty old. The older I get, the more I look forward to warm weather. Everything being frozen and dead all the time gets depressing after a few months.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> That sounds like bout November-April here. It gets mighty old. The older I get, the more I look forward to warm weather. Everything being frozen and dead all the time gets depressing after a few months.



Maybe you and Nicodemus should swap shacks.


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## elfiii (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I want it so cold down here that if you walk outside and grin, it`ll bust your teeth.


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## StriperrHunterr (Aug 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've met a few of them. I'm not too impressed. They are more high and mighty on themselves than our Yankees are.



That's because they have nothing else to do for the six months there's no sun.


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## Nicodemus (Aug 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maybe you and Nicodemus should swap shacks.





I can`t live that far from the grass flats and bay, or the turkeys I love to hunt so good, or the Flint River, or my beloved Kinchafoonee Creek.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I can`t live that far from the grass flats and bay, or the turkeys I love to hunt so good, or the Flint River, or my beloved Kinchafoonee Creek.



You'd better start offering a sip or three of that Makers Mark to the Big Man in an effort to get all that you want then.


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## NCHillbilly (Aug 23, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I can`t live that far from the grass flats and bay, or the turkeys I love to hunt so good, or the Flint River, or my beloved Kinchafoonee Creek.



We have plenty of grass and turkeys, but not much flat.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> We have plenty of grass and turkeys.



He ain't talkin bout Asheville.


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## smokey30725 (Aug 23, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> That sounds like bout November-April here. It gets mighty old. The older I get, the more I look forward to warm weather. Everything being frozen and dead all the time gets depressing after a few months.



Come stay in Flintstone for a while. You'll sweat so much that your deodorant is crying for mercy.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 23, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Come stay in Flintstone for a while. You'll sweat so much that your deodorant is crying for mercy.



You're assuming he wears deodorant.


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## smokey30725 (Aug 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're assuming he wears deodorant.



We all would like to think that. Just trying to give him the benefit of the doubt. Regardless, I will try to stay upwind of him if I ever meet him.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 23, 2017)

My speed stick has sped away!


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## Crakajak (Aug 24, 2017)

68 in the 30078 this morning.


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## NCHillbilly (Aug 24, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Come stay in Flintstone for a while. You'll sweat so much that your deodorant is crying for mercy.



I don't mind hot weather. I'm a southerner. I also have a place halfway down on the SC/GA border where the rocks start to melt in the summertime, love it. And stuff is alive down there and the fish are biting when it's frozen and gray and lifeless here in the winter. BTW, it was 50-some here this morning. Right pleasant. 

A little sweat never hurt anybody, except for yankees and eskimos.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 24, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> I don't mind hot weather. I'm a southerner. I also have a place halfway down on the SC/GA border where the rocks melt in the summertime, love it. A little sweat never hurt anybody, except for yankees and eskimos.



Don't forget Canadians.


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## NCHillbilly (Aug 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't forget Canadians.



Yep, the tundra limeys too.


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## smokey30725 (Aug 24, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> I don't mind hot weather. I'm a southerner. I also have a place halfway down on the SC/GA border where the rocks start to melt in the summertime, love it. And stuff is alive down there and the fish are biting when it's frozen and gray and lifeless here in the winter. BTW, it was 50-some here this morning. Right pleasant.
> 
> A little sweat never hurt anybody, except for yankees and eskimos.



I don't mind a little sweat. When you start measuring it in gallons, we have an issue.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 24, 2017)

Fity six this mornin in 30132


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## Crakajak (Aug 24, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Fity six this mornin in 30132



Congrats!!!


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## StriperrHunterr (Aug 24, 2017)

64 IMBY this morning. And I don't see a strongly wrapped core to Harvey, yet, that would indicate a major hurry cane. It's got time to asplode, but it's not there yet, IMAO.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 24, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> 64 IMBY this morning. And I don't see a strongly wrapped core to Harvey, yet, that would indicate a major hurry cane. It's got time to asplode, but it's not there yet, IMAO.


Oh it's there. It's an ophishul harry cane and is gonna be a nasty one before landfall.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 24, 2017)

Here it is for the Peanut Gallery, I've also got a Tropical Weather Thread going in the MetShack.... alaka alaka boom. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here are the key messages for rapidly intensifying #Hurricane #Harvey for the 1 pm CDT Special Advisory. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/V9fXLewx1L</p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 24, 2017)

3+ or a 4- at landfall. Then I saw a track were we get it late next week north ga more rain yay!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 24, 2017)

It's getting real serious now. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">IMPORTANT NOTICE: Residents living on the Gulf side of Intracoastal Canal now under Mandatory Evacuation due to expected 6-10 ft storm surge</p>— Brazoria County (@BrazoriaCounty) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Crakajak (Aug 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's getting real serious now.
> 
> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">IMPORTANT NOTICE: Residents living on the Gulf side of Intracoastal Canal now under Mandatory Evacuation due to expected 6-10 ft storm surge</p>— Brazoria County (@BrazoriaCounty) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Going to be lots of damage with this storm.Prayers to everyone in its path.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 25, 2017)

Stupid hurricane is affecting gas prices already! News folks already spreading the gas shortage panic!


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## keithsto (Aug 25, 2017)

Mayor of Rockport, TX has told folks who are riding it out to write their name and SSN on their arm with a Sharpie marker. If that ain't a warning, I don't know what is.


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## toyota4x4h (Aug 25, 2017)

Cat 4 now!


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## blood on the ground (Aug 26, 2017)

Thunder and nice steady rain in the 30132.


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## Lukikus2 (Aug 27, 2017)

Getting busy now.


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## smokey30725 (Aug 27, 2017)

It's been raining hard here in Flintstone for the last hour or so.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 28, 2017)

Pleasant morning outside


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## fountain (Aug 28, 2017)

^ I hope there are more to come in the near future


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 28, 2017)

Anybody know if New Orleans got their flood canal pump issues resolved? They are about to be on the wet side of Harvey in a few days.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 28, 2017)

Autumn starts in three more days. Well, Meteorological Autumn that is, September 1st. I'll take it.


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## deerslayer357 (Aug 29, 2017)

Is Harvey the source of the sudden rain predicted for most of Georgia from Wednesday to Sunday or is there another system that is bringing that rain?


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## blood on the ground (Aug 29, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Anybody know if New Orleans got their flood canal pump issues resolved? They are about to be on the wet side of Harvey in a few days.



You can guess the answer to that question! Some no good lazy Idjits running the show down that way!


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## Crakajak (Aug 29, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> You can guess the answer to that question! Some no good lazy Idjits running the show down that way!



WSB reported that the pumps were in 90% working order. The real world knows it would be more like 60%.

Spoons in the persimmon seeds this weekend.


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## blood on the ground (Aug 29, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> WSB reported that the pumps were in 90% working order. The real world knows it would be more like 60%.
> 
> Spoons in the persimmon seeds this weekend.



I heard on another station say just the opposite of that a couple days ago... I hope wsb is right!


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 29, 2017)

deerslayer357 said:


> Is Harvey the source of the sudden rain predicted for most of Georgia from Wednesday to Sunday or is there another system that is bringing that rain?



Yes


----------



## Greene728 (Aug 29, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> WSB reported that the pumps were in 90% working order. The real world knows it would be more like 60%.
> 
> Spoons in the persimmon seeds this weekend.



Spoons last year too. Here's hoping for another mild winter!


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 30, 2017)

Cut open a persimmon seed.
Look at the shape of the kernel inside.

    If the kernel is spoon-shaped, lots of heavy, wet snow will fall. Spoon = shovel!
    If it is fork-shaped, you can expect powdery, light snow and a mild winter.
    If the kernel is knife-shaped, expect to be “cut” by icy, cutting winds.

It’s best to use ripe seeds.


----------



## Nicodemus (Aug 30, 2017)

Just cut this open a minute ago. Got a knife for this winter. Last two winters I got a spoon.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 30, 2017)

That's just old wives tales. Its been a spoon up here last two winters. It was mild and only one snow here not even a good one.


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 30, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> That's just old wives tales. Its been a spoon up here last two winters. It was mild and only one snow here not even a good one.


Thats because Smokey and you are under the no snow dome.


----------



## keithsto (Aug 30, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Thats because Smokey and you are under the no snow dome.



And me, DDD, and Miggy are under the "warm nose".


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 30, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> Thats because Smokey and you are under the no snow dome.



Please someone get rid of the dome for us


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 30, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Please someone get rid of the dome for us



You just got to trust the persimmon seed.Spoon doesn't equate to snow this far south .Just wet.


----------



## smokey30725 (Aug 30, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Please someone get rid of the dome for us



I will contribute to the "Move the no-snow-dome to NCHillbilly's House" fund. Together, we can all make a difference.


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I will contribute to the "Move the no-snow-dome to NCHillbilly's House" fund. Together, we can all make a difference.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 30, 2017)

Monon's


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 30, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Monon's



We just waitin on the snow dome to arrive.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 30, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> We just waitin on the snow dome to arrive.



Gotta wait and see what kind of plans Irma has first.


----------



## Crakajak (Aug 31, 2017)

32.5 N 64.8W is a good direction to head


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> 32.5 N 64.8W is a good direction to head



Why do you hate Bermuda?


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 31, 2017)

I saw the spaghettis this morning and they are all but one heading it to the gulf yikes


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> I saw the spaghettis this morning and they are all but one heading it to the gulf yikes



That was the ECMWF ensemble. Not a conglomerate of all models. But yes, it could be ugly. My bet is New Orleans still won't have their pumps fixed in time.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 31, 2017)

Bring on the rain...yayyy :/


----------



## NCHillbilly (Aug 31, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I will contribute to the "Move the no-snow-dome to NCHillbilly's House" fund. Together, we can all make a difference.



I'll throw in a few bucks myself.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

Seems Irma want's attention and knows how to get it. 

Yesterday's NHC map said she'd go from TS to H sometime today or tomorrow. Now they are saying she's gonna skip the H (Hurricane) and jump straight to M (Major Hurricane).  This one's gonna keep some people on edge until they know her most likely path.


----------



## fountain (Aug 31, 2017)

Anyone got a rain map for the incoming weekend?  I have looked at a few different sites and they all say something different.  I've seen from a tenth to inches


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

fountain said:


> Anyone got a rain map for the incoming weekend?  I have looked at a few different sites and they all say something different.  I've seen from a tenth to inches



What part of the state you wanting to know about?


----------



## toyota4x4h (Aug 31, 2017)

Do you think it gets into the gulf miggy? 2 sources I follow on twitter just posted maps having it narrowed down to going tween cuba and florida and into the gulf. Be major if it does and hope it doesn't head for texas at that point.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Do you think it gets into the gulf miggy? 2 sources I follow on twitter just posted maps having it narrowed down to going tween cuba and florida and into the gulf. Be major if it does and hope it doesn't head for texas at that point.



If you are following sources that are attempting to crystal ball it down to that narrow of a path this early on, I'd unfollow those sources. 

Ryan Maue and Joe *******i are two of the best and actively responsible for WeatherBell Analytics. The Met software that gets it right more than any other out there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

Here is Joe *******i's tweet on Irma. Virtually identical to Ryan's tweet. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">00z euro v 12z ensemble tracks,  more landfalling members now, though still sample that escapes pic.twitter.com/waHjBo6mwv</p>— Joe *******i (@BigJoeBastardi) August 31, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## mguthrie (Aug 31, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here is Joe *******i's tweet on Irma. Virtually identical to Ryan's tweet.
> 
> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">00z euro v 12z ensemble tracks,  more landfalling members now, though still sample that escapes pic.twitter.com/waHjBo6mwv</p>— Joe *******i (@BigJoeBastardi) August 31, 2017</blockquote>
> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Well that narrows it down a bit  seriously though it appears it's going to impact the US somewhere


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 31, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> Well that narrows it down a bit  seriously though it appears it's going to impact the US somewhere



Possibly. 

It does seem to be one of those years. We haven't had one in a loooonnnnngggg time, so I guess we're due.


----------



## keithsto (Aug 31, 2017)

Spinny things in Alabama. Any concern about that for us tomorrow?


----------



## fountain (Aug 31, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What part of the state you wanting to know about?



Wheeler co


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

About to get bumpy in NWGA


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

Still a lot of speculation for where Irma will go. It will remain this way through the next 4 or so days. Here is the variance between the Euro ensembles and the GEFS ensembles. If you are subscribed, following or locked in to anyone showing a narrow path and attempting to claim certainty of where this storm is going, drop them like a hot potato. They are a certified lunatic wish casting.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

fountain said:


> Wheeler co



For SE GA (the maps tell others the story too)

According to the NAM you could be dealing with light rain as the remnants of Harvey make their way off of the coast. Cloud cover should be present even if the rain is light or non-existent at times.  Temps around shoot time until dark should be in the mid-80's with a light breeze out of the SW.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

Oh Yeah, and welcome to the first day of Meteorological Autumn.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

Just FYI, and anyone else you see fake casting on other media sites as well. This is the reason DDD and I have railed on at least two that we found on Facebook and I'm pretty sure one of them was a member here as well. 

Here's the law:

Whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both.
(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 795; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, §â€¯330016(1)(G), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2147.)

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074

Here's the type fakecasting at issue. DO NOT FOLLOW these type idiots and report them as fake news every chance you get.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Sep 1, 2017)

I follow north ga weather who have their sources and I follow them too on twitter. Included are Ryan Maue, Allan Huffman and Philip Klotzbach they are all far from fake news lol. Bring on fall!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> I follow north ga weather who have their sources and I follow them too on twitter. Included are Ryan Maue, Allan Huffman and Philip Klotzbach they are all far from fake news lol. Bring on fall!



I think DDD likes Huffman, I personally don't care for him. This tweet he posted just 17 hours ago is a good reason why. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">12z ECMWF track for #Irma, will have EPS tracks out to day 10 in about 10 mins or less pic.twitter.com/lEGdEtxjZ0</p>— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) August 31, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## ssramage (Sep 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still a lot of speculation for where Irma will go. It will remain this way through the next 4 or so days. Here is the variance between the Euro ensembles and the GEFS ensembles. If you are subscribed, following or locked in to anyone showing a narrow path and attempting to claim certainty of where this storm is going, drop them like a hot potato. They are a certified lunatic wish casting.



I don't like the one straggler hitting SEGA, but at least it looks like this thing may be tending to take a hard turn before it gets this way...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 1, 2017)

ssramage said:


> I don't like the one straggler hitting SEGA, but at least it looks like this thing may be tending to take a hard turn before it gets this way...



There is nothing at all on those two ensembles to establish such a trend. If anything it would be the opposite based on the very slim margin of error the Euro has exhibited this season.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 1, 2017)

Guess you were right. This pic just put a knot in my stomach...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 2, 2017)

Don't get too alarmed by what the spaghetti maps are showing yet. Is it a good idea to begin preparations if you are on or near the coast? Of course.

That being said, the GFS (GEFS) has been all over the place and mostly wrong for more than a year now. The Old Algorithm of the GFS, before somebody monkeyed with it, was at least dependable until a week out from an event, then it would go rogue and then slowly, day by day work itself back into alignment with it's original consensus. 

Personally, I hope that is what is happening here. The GFS needs to be more stable and believable for a general consensus across model products for forecasting purposes. 

All of that being said, just as is shown on the map I just posted in the Met Shack, the Euro (ECMWF) is not painting a good picture and is indicating that anywhere along florida up the near SE coast could get a land falling major hurricane. 

Like I said, still too far out ( a week) but if you live along the coast or even 100 miles inland, start making preparations, alternative places to stay, etc. etc. etc.  

If I lived on the GA / SC coast I would dream of riding this one out. The timing has it coming in on high tides of around 8 ft. So even if it doesn't make landfall but is a near miss the wind driven tides could easily create some minor flooding and inconveniences. Add to that enough wind to knock out a grid or three of power and you all of the sudden have a mess. 

Not saying that is what will happen, but what I am saying is "Be Prepared".


----------



## fountain (Sep 3, 2017)

Everyone else sure seems to be hitting the panic button on this one ready.  It going to hit the ga coast is all the talk...


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 3, 2017)

This one reminds me of Floyd in '99. Only time will tell. Preparing now is the key. Good luck to all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 3, 2017)

fountain said:


> Everyone else sure seems to be hitting the panic button on this one ready.  It going to hit the ga coast is all the talk...



Who is "everyone else"?


----------



## fountain (Sep 3, 2017)

Pat prokop is posting a good bit about it

Most local weather's I watch are calling for it to hit between Jacksonville and the GA coast as well


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 3, 2017)

I have seen the description of "category 6" tossed around for this one.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 3, 2017)

Latest model...I'm not a meteorologist but that doesn't look good...


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 4, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I have seen the description of "category 6" tossed around for this one.



6?? I thought it only went to 5!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 4, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> 6?? I thought it only went to 5!!



It currently does only go to 5. Hopefully it's just more stupid social media hype.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 4, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I have seen the description of "category 6" tossed around for this one.



That is called fake news. Don't believe what you read on the internet. 

Pay attention to the last paragraph in this synopsis from the NHC. Pretty much what I've been saying thus far. It's still too early to pin point where and if a US landfall will occur.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 4, 2017)

I'll have to say, out of the models I looked at this morning, the Euro is the nicest to the US on where and how this storm might landfall. 

The GFS, CFS and GDPS are extremely ugly. 

By Tuesday mid afternoon we should have this one nailed down. (fingers crossed)


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Sep 4, 2017)

With the latest run and Irma's probable path staying north of most of the islands it could get really strong with the land masses tearing it apart.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 4, 2017)

18z GFS is really ugly. Two landfalls with the East Coast of Fl getting hammered. Savannah #2 target. Still just speculation as all models are scrambling for a viable solution.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 4, 2017)

The talk among the serious Mets is starting to gather around this consensus. Barring a sharp northerly turn, I think they are correct. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tonight&#39;s @NHC_Atlantic will likely put Hurricane #Irma 120-hour location over or very near tip of South Florida. Begin preparation steps. pic.twitter.com/tpfYiOM1bN</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 4, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 4, 2017)

If it does do that most of Florida stands a big chance of being out of power from downed trees. Bout time to go introduce yourself to your neighbors. All the food is already off the shelves down here. To far off to call and the media is running with it.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 4, 2017)

Miguel,

Based on those models, are we still looking at major hurricane for coastal GA or does it lose strength?

And it looks like Tuesday next week?


----------



## malak05 (Sep 4, 2017)

Man, this storm is a ways out but that trend past 24 hours is definitely making it more of a threat for Continental US and it's a beast


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 4, 2017)

Got relatives in Savannah that are just now getting their house repaired from hurricane Matthew. They are prepping for the worst and praying for the best.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 5, 2017)

Family in south Florida said grocery stores are already running out of food... Shelves are empty.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 5, 2017)

She's a CAT 5 now with 175mph winds.



> 000
> WTNT61 KNHC 051147
> TCUAT1
> 
> ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

Well I said Tuesday morning we would have a better picture of what Irma might do. It is Tuesday morning and I certainly don't like the picture thus far. I'm not going to speculate on it's effect on Al, Ga or SC just yet because it appears the Bermuda High might not be done keeping Irma suppressed to the southerly track. 

Here's what the NHC is telling us for now. 







WTNT41 KNHC 051200
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

Forecaster Brown


----------



## ssramage (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel, what Mets should we be following for the best info on this?


----------



## Big un (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel, I apologize for asking you this but you seem to be a reliable source. Do you think Irma will have enough destructive force to cause a lot of problems in South Georgia? I'm in jeff Davis county and have a medically fragile child. I am trying to decide on a generator as she has some medical equipment that requires power. I hate to spend the money when we may need it for travels to her dr but also want her safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Miguel, what Mets should we be following for the best info on this?


If you are on Facebook follow the National Hurricane Center's page. If you are on Twitter follow Ryan Maue and Joe *******i. If you are on neither then the weather channel is about your only option. 


Big un said:


> Miguel, I apologize for asking you this but you seem to be a reliable source. Do you think Irma will have enough destructive force to cause a lot of problems in South Georgia? I'm in jeff Davis county and have a medically fragile child. I am trying to decide on a generator as she has some medical equipment that requires power. I hate to spend the money when we may need it for travels to her dr but also want her safe.



In your situation, regardless of what the weather is, a generator is always a prudent choice, not an option, for the safety and well being of your family members. There are many conditions outside of the weather that can lead to power failures and put your child's health at risk. 

As far as Irma's path and strength down range, it is impossible to project what that will be. Presently she is a Cat5 with winds exceeding 175 mph. Typically landfall reduces that intensity at the core, but at the same time landfall quite often expands the wind field of a system such as this. Even if the wind intensity drops by the time it gets to Georgia (were it to take that path) it doesn't take anything more than a tropical storm to bring us record levels of rainfall (Alberto in mind here) which in and of itself could cause major problems, including power disruptions. 

In short, buy the generator, build an elevated platform for it if you are in a flood prone area, and hope for the best.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 5, 2017)

Big un said:


> Miguel, I apologize for asking you this but you seem to be a reliable source. Do you think Irma will have enough destructive force to cause a lot of problems in South Georgia? I'm in jeff Davis county and have a medically fragile child. I am trying to decide on a generator as she has some medical equipment that requires power. I hate to spend the money when we may need it for travels to her dr but also want her safe.



Big un, In your case, if the storm path  even grazes your area, you may see ground saturating rain, and even moderate wind may bring trees down affecting the power grid.

If the storm even hints of heading through your part of the state, finding a generator may be a tough task. People will beat a path to get power backup if there is a possibility of power outages.

Get a power unit soon. You can leave it in the box, have fuel and drop cords ready for use, and if it is not needed you can return the open box after the storm.


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 5, 2017)

Agreed on the generator. I ran a Generac GP5500W for many years until I got my stationary whole house system. The 5500 will push 6500 surge watts and ran my whole house if I kept the AC off and was selective on which rooms to turn the lights on. It would burn about 5-7 gallons of gas a day.


----------



## Big un (Sep 5, 2017)

Thanks all for the quick replies, I'm loading up now and heading to Douglas. It appears lowes and tractor supply have some available.  I have 15 gallons of gas on hand at all times as our specialist is in Orlando and that gives us enough to make it there regardless of gas availability on the way.  I think I'll double up on that amount as well as keeping both vehicle full for this week. We normally never go below half a tank but for now we will be filling up after every trip. Sorry for the in my back yard weather question, just trying to protect my little one.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

Big un said:


> Thanks all for the quick replies, I'm loading up now and heading to Douglas. It appears lowes and tractor supply have some available.  I have 15 gallons of gas on hand at all times as our specialist is in Orlando and that gives us enough to make it there regardless of gas availability on the way.  I think I'll double up on that amount as well as keeping both vehicle full for this week. We normally never go below half a tank but for now we will be filling up after every trip. Sorry for the in my back yard weather question, just trying to protect my little one.


Definitely not a IMBY question. Take care of that little one and y'all be safe.


----------



## Greene728 (Sep 5, 2017)

Based on James Spanns video blog this morning, all our friends almost anywhere on the Florida peninsula need to either be preparing or evacuating now or very soon. Especially the eastern side. Man it looks ominous for you folks as of the current projections. Hope and prayers for you guys already! Hopefully something will change.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 5, 2017)

Cat 5. Wow!


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel,

Is it true that there is another tropical depression behind this that may be named Joel?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Sep 5, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Miguel,
> 
> Is it true that there is another tropical depression behind this that may be named Joel?



Jose


----------



## chobrown (Sep 5, 2017)

*Jose*

Jose


----------



## Big un (Sep 5, 2017)

Fellas if y'all need a generator you better hurry. I am very thankful that y'all responded quickly. I left write after that last post. Tractor supply in Douglas sold out. Lowes had sold everyone they had except one model of a Briggs and they had sold 16 of them and was down to 3 when I left. Both places said the phones were ringing off the hook searching. I picked up the Briggs 6250w this will support her cough assist machine, suction, and air conditioner(window unit) and be able to charge her power wheelchair.  Thanks for all the work y'all do. When I get to a point where I can contribute I will.  It looks like studying weather will be a part of our lives to ensure everyone is safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

Yes, as someone asked, Jose' is our newest member on the Tropical Train, but he will most likely turn north well before US territory. In fact I am now waiting on the EURO to finish. An earlier run of the GFS indicated the Bermuda High might be weakening earlier than thought. If this happens there is potential for Irma to recurve back to the Atlantic without having little if any influence on the US mainland. 

That would be a dream forecast and save a lot of headaches for sure. Time will tell.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Sep 5, 2017)

Here's hoping that comes to fruitition!


----------



## ssramage (Sep 5, 2017)

Dumb question, what's the difference between 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z models? And which should I be looking at?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 5, 2017)

Midnight Zulu, 0600Zulu, Noon Zulu, and 1800(6PM Zulu) times. Zulu being GMT, or EDT +4. Depends on what you're looking for.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Dumb question, what's the difference between 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z models? And which should I be looking at?



Those are the times of day the latest model has run. 

Z =  Zulu = Greenwich Mean Time = 4 hours ahead of EDT on the 24 hour clock. 

Example: 18z = 14:00 on US EDT time which translates to 2pm.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 5, 2017)

Not only would the Bermuda High have to weaken considerably, there would also need to be a front of considerable strength to put enough bend in Irma's track to make any high likelihood of a good outcome, Miguel. Harvey was a case study in weak steering currents and, as bad as he was, Harvey don't have anything on a Cat 5 sitting just off the coast and landfall with nothing to steer it in any direction. Here's hoping for those two events to occur.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

So much for a consensus among model products. GFS has Irma striking Miami, bouncing off and slamming Savannah / Hilton Head.

Euro has Irma moving on into the Gulf of Mexico.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 5, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Midnight Zulu, 0600Zulu, Noon Zulu, and 1800(6PM Zulu) times. Zulu being GMT, or EDT +4. Depends on what you're looking for.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Those are the times of day the latest model has run.
> 
> Z =  Zulu = Greenwich Mean Time = 4 hours ahead of EDT on the 24 hour clock.
> 
> Example: 18z = 14:00 on US EDT time which translates to 2pm.



Got it. So right now, I would look at the 18z model for the most up to date?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So much for a consensus among model products. GFS has Irma striking Miami, bouncing off and slamming Savannah / Hilton Head.
> 
> Euro has Irma moving on into the Gulf of Mexico.



That's not good. That means nothing strong enough to move it around in any predictable fashion. 



ssramage said:


> Got it. So right now, I would look at the 18z model for the most up to date?



Yes, but these guys will warn you, don't put too much stock in a single run, even of multiple models.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Got it. So right now, I would look at the 18z model for the most up to date?



Well, potentially. Sometimes the GFS and Euro run at much different times than the time they specified they are good for. Then you have the CFS, GDPS, NAM etc etc etc. 

But in general, yes, the later the time the more recent the forecast model. Just understand that there are a myriad of models and only one, or all of them may be right, sooner or later......................Clear as mud?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> That's not good. That means nothing strong enough to move it around in any predictable fashion.



That is not true. It was true during Harvey because we had a NE HPS and a far west HPS with no controlling / steering mechanisms in the middle. 

For this system we have the Bermuda HPS pushing Irma west. Then we have a cold air trough rapidly approaching the SE with the potential for dry air influx, were the timing right, and as soon as the trough clears out a HP ridge building in over the SE which will also be a good steering mechanism ( the reason for the recurve back to the east, even if it's just in the Gulf)

All of these air masses occur when and where they do because of upper atmosphere jets, which there were none of to move Harvey along.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

If you are on facebook and see posts like these DO NOT SHARE THEM. Report them as fake news.


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## smokey30725 (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you are on facebook and see posts like these DO NOT SHARE THEM. Report them as fake news.



1.4 million views and counting!! 

This is why I always consult with you, Miggy, when I see stuff like this.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> 1.4 million views and counting!!
> 
> This is why I always consult with you, Miggy, when I see stuff like this.



It amazes me that people buy into that camel fodder.


----------



## Crakajak (Sep 5, 2017)

I quit reading at Cat 6.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> I quit reading at Cat 6.



Smart man.


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## Crakajak (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Smart man.



I do pay attention sometimes.Just not to the oracle of Dublin.
No matter which side of Fla this hurricane goes its not going to be good for anyone in that state.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

A little food for thought. 
This is the EF tornado / wind speed rating scale. A tornado hits and is gone in a matter of seconds or at the very worst minutes. 

Imagine being at a landfall location where a Cat 5 Irma hits and you are at ground zero for the eye of the landfall. This wind can be sustained for hours depending on how fast the hurricane is moving. Property WILL be destroyed if this is the situation. 











I had to process this in my mind because I have a friend who is a Storm Chaser for Weather Nation and he is leaving for Key West. I question the logic in locating there for many reasons. 

Through former experience in SAR and EMA work in order to formulate a plan of action first and foremost came a Risk Assessment. It was the precursor to all plans that would put humans in harms way for an operation. 

I can only wonder what "RA" process Weather Nation is using sending him to that location for such a storm?


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## malak05 (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little food for thought.
> This is the EF tornado / wind speed rating scale. A tornado hits and is gone in a matter of seconds or at the very worst minutes.
> 
> Imagine being at a landfall location where a Cat 5 Irma hits and you are at ground zero for the eye of the landfall. This wind can be sustained for hours depending on how fast the hurricane is moving. Property WILL be destroyed if this is the situation.
> ...




Ain't no RA that would work for me in that scenario other then a M1 Abrams with floaties on


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 5, 2017)

I heard the cat 6 story at work today. I didn't waste my time explaining that's not true if they are dumb enough to believe let em be that dumb lol. I'm praying for a steer away from savannah and charleston with honeymoon already booked for October


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## SGADawg (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little food for thought.
> This is the EF tornado / wind speed rating scale. A tornado hits and is gone in a matter of seconds or at the very worst minutes.
> 
> Imagine being at a landfall location where a Cat 5 Irma hits and you are at ground zero for the eye of the landfall. This wind can be sustained for hours depending on how fast the hurricane is moving. Property WILL be destroyed if this is the situation.
> ...



Ratings.


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## Head East (Sep 5, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> I quit reading at Cat 6.



The little woman told me during dinner tonight that she heard this could be raised to a "new" level cat 6.  

She was serious.

I thought for a second and told her..yep, they are gonna name this new category "hurnado".

She almost bought into all this.  

I almost got swatted with a pork chop.


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## Hooked On Quack (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It amazes me that people buy into that camel fodder.





Not real sure why anybody would want to post false news in a life threatening situation ???


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## Head East (Sep 5, 2017)

Puffery


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## Head East (Sep 5, 2017)

My daughter just texted me. Asked if I was watching Irma.  I said no, I'm  watching Miguel.  She said..is that another one?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

Head East said:


> My daughter just texted me. Asked if I was watching Irma.  I said no, I'm  watching Miguel.  She said..is that another one?


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## srb (Sep 5, 2017)

Just seen the first video from irmmma...
It was from Barbados ,Not very nice()


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 5, 2017)

srb said:


> Just seen the first video from irmmma...
> It was from Barbados ,Not very nice()



Antigua & Barbuda yes. Barbados no.


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## Lukikus2 (Sep 5, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Antigua & Barbuda yes. Barbados no.



I have always wanted to visit Barbados. Every since watching Bewitched.


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 5, 2017)

I think that vid is fake news. And everyone on Facebook is sharing it


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## Hooked On Quack (Sep 5, 2017)

Some idiots in Florida are worried about the water conditions for the Teal season . .


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## jsullivan03 (Sep 5, 2017)

gobbleinwoods said:


> With the latest run and Irma's probable path staying north of most of the islands it could get really strong with the land masses tearing it apart.





Hooked On Quack said:


> Some idiots in Florida are worried about the water conditions for the Teal season . .



I'm worried!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

00z GFS running now. It is showing a glancing blow just off of Miami and a landfall around Charleston or a little NE of their. Still a few more runs of the models to go before it gets nailed down pretty good. Won't know what the Euro shows until much later in the morning.


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## malak05 (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 00z GFS running now. It is showing a glancing blow just off of Miami and a landfall around Charleston or a little NE of their. Still a few more runs of the models to go before it gets nailed down pretty good. Won't know what the Euro shows until much later in the morning.



So far the 00z GFS was west of the 18z run and Euro been on other side of Florida on most of it's recent runs... lil back and forth between these 2 but wouldn't be shocked to have it right in the middle of them which isn't good


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

malak05 said:


> So far the 00z GFS was west of the 18z run and Euro been on other side of Florida on most of it's recent runs... lil back and forth between these 2 but wouldn't be shocked to have it right in the middle of them which isn't good



The Bermuda high is the hold up. Not knowing how fast or when it will decay. If there is solid data to show it moving out soon enough then Irma could become a fish and not have a US landfall. However every hour that goes by without that happening makes it less likely.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The Bermuda high is the hold up. Not knowing how fast or when it will decay. If there is solid data to show it moving out soon enough then Irma could become a fish and not have a US landfall. However every hour that goes by without that happening makes it less likely.



The wifes family in Miami said they are ridding it out.... Said they have never evacuated! Idjits!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> The wifes family in Miami said they are ridding it out.... Said they have never evacuated! Idjits!



The west side won't be as volatile as the NE side, so they might be ok. Depends on whether it landfalls there or not and how it comes through. 

I remember during Andrew and Katrina's Cat 5 phases the NWS talking about how difficult it was for a hurricane to sustain it's strength at that level and it sort of blows apart at the eye and has to regenerate. 

Funny how in this day and age of technology and weather drama that point hasn't been brought up with Irma. If what they said way back then was true we should be able to expect it to cycle through cat 4 and 5 statuses as it works it's way across open water.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The west side won't be as volatile as the NE side, so they might be ok. Depends on whether it landfalls there or not and how it comes through.
> 
> I remember during Andrew and Katrina's Cat 5 phases the NWS talking about how difficult it was for a hurricane to sustain it's strength at that level and it sort of blows apart at the eye and has to regenerate.
> 
> Funny how in this day and age of technology and weather drama that point hasn't been brought up with Irma. If what they said way back then was true we should be able to expect it to cycle through cat 4 and 5 statuses as it works it's way across open water.



I guess we will see soon enough! CONTUS should start feeling the affect by Saturday correct?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I guess we will see soon enough! CONTUS should start feeling the affect by Saturday correct?



If it is going to landfall in S. Fl yes. But that is still up in the air.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If it is going to landfall in S. Fl yes. But that is still up in the air.



Thanks brother!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

GDPS running now. 00z shows a brush with Miami just to it's east just like the GFS showed on the 00z but the GDPS turns out to sea after that. Interesting trends here in the wee hours of the morning.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

00z run of Euro, Canadian, GEFS and GFS are all in now. 

All are in agreement with a close call east of Miami and landfall around Charleston or NE in SC. The Canadian is the only outlier sending Irma back out to sea after the close call with Miami. 

Irma could turn into a fish yet. Let's just wait and see.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

06z GFS gives us a Savannah / Hilton head landfall after a glancing blow off of Miami. The 00z Euro is in agreement with this path with Charleston as it's ground zero.  There are still 18 hours of model runs for this to wobble around, but the problem now is prep and reaction time. We are quite simply running out of time for folks to secure their property and get out of dodge.


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## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 06z GFS gives us a Savannah / Hilton head landfall after a glancing blow off of Miami. The 00z Euro is in agreement with this path with Charleston as it's ground zero.  There are still 18 hours of model runs for this to wobble around, but the problem now is prep and reaction time. We are quite simply running out of time for folks to secure their property and get out of dodge.



Unless this thing shifts WAY east, I'm thinking this is about worst case for SEGA (barring a direct hit). Given that Charleston is probably only 60 miles East of Brunswick give or take, I'd imagine we still catch Hurricane force winds. And if no major landfall in FL to slow it down, it's going to be a bruiser.


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## Patriot44 (Sep 6, 2017)

Jeez. No me SC!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Unless this thing shifts WAY east, I'm thinking this is about worst case for SEGA (barring a direct hit). Given that Charleston is probably only 60 miles East of Brunswick give or take, I'd imagine we still catch Hurricane force winds. And if no major landfall in FL to slow it down, it's going to be a bruiser.


Everything at landfall and east of landfall will get hammered. Tides will be around 8 ft this weekend and if this happens with these winds and the surge they would push on shore it would be uglier than ugly. 

Fingers crossed and hoping for a shift out to sea instead of any landfall. But three runs in a row over the last 12 hours doesn't bode well.


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## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everything at landfall and east of landfall will get hammered. Tides will be around 8 ft this weekend and if this happens with these winds and the surge they would push on shore it would be uglier than ugly.
> 
> Fingers crossed and hoping for a shift out to sea instead of any landfall. But three runs in a row over the last 12 hours doesn't bode well.



Kind of what I'm thinking. We're looking at 8' tides Monday midday. We had significant damage on SSI from Matthew. That was a teddy bear compared to this.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Kind of what I'm thinking. We're looking at 8' tides Monday midday. We had significant damage on SSI from Matthew. That was a teddy bear compared to this.



SSI should be good if this stays on the path or more easterly path from this. This is indicating a Monday 2pm landfall, which will be on the falling tide, but that isn't much consolation when the high is 8 ft. 

Still plenty of time for track adjustments over the next 5 days.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

Videos from St. Martin are beginning to come in this morning. 

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">[IRMA] Saint Martin dans le mur de l&#39;oeil subit les effets de l&#39;ouragan IRMA #iram #ouragan #SaintMartin (Source : Rinsy Xieng) pic.twitter.com/e2j7e9KtOu</p>— RCI Guadeloupe (@RCI_GP) September 6, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

This one came in 8 minutes ago. Reports from those in concrete stairwells say it is like hours of a continuous sonic boom that never lets up. 

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">La plage de Maho Beach sous des conditions extrêmes à #SaintMartin. Vidéo complète 2017 Ptztv https://t.co/4gYqMhaWlI#Irma pic.twitter.com/SMcxoa6LoI</p>â€” Keraunos (@KeraunosObs) September 6, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## rydert (Sep 6, 2017)

gootness...


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## blood on the ground (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This one came in 8 minutes ago. Reports from those in concrete stairwells say it is like hours of a continuous sonic boom that never lets up.
> 
> <blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">La plage de Maho Beach sous des conditions extrêmes à #SaintMartin. Vidéo complète 2017 Ptztv https://t.co/4gYqMhaWlI#Irma pic.twitter.com/SMcxoa6LoI</p>â€” Keraunos (@KeraunosObs) September 6, 2017</blockquote>
> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



That will make you pray to your maker!


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

Scary stuff


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That is not true. It was true during Harvey because we had a NE HPS and a far west HPS with no controlling / steering mechanisms in the middle.
> 
> For this system we have the Bermuda HPS pushing Irma west. Then we have a cold air trough rapidly approaching the SE with the potential for dry air influx, were the timing right, and as soon as the trough clears out a HP ridge building in over the SE which will also be a good steering mechanism ( the reason for the recurve back to the east, even if it's just in the Gulf)
> 
> All of these air masses occur when and where they do because of upper atmosphere jets, which there were none of to move Harvey along.



I'm glad to be wrong. I just hear no steering currents, other than the Bermuda high keeping this thing chugging along in the same direction as the perimeter of the high itself, when the model all show that kind of congruence in a mostly linear path. But, I don't follow this stuff like you guys do, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, or the night before, so there's why I'm wrong.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Not real sure why anybody would want to post false news in a life threatening situation ???



Malignant narcissism.


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## keithsto (Sep 6, 2017)

I hope she turns into a fish and heads out to sea.  I don't want to see her make landfall anywhere.

Thinking this guy has the right idea though..


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 6, 2017)

I think itll come ashore tween key west and Miami and then run north north east then back into savannah area.


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## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

NHC now moving in line with what the latest Euro and GFS models have been showing. Moving up the east coast of FL, in line to impact GA/SC/NC. Southeast GA now in the cone for potential impact.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

Figure I might as well take off my snow boots and put my waders on...  This is going to be one for the books.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

What I want to point out that may or may not have been pointed out is just how large Irma is.  Irma is massive.  Her winds and precip is MASSIVE.  For that reason, if she was to come in anywhere between JAX or Savannah she WILL impact just about the entire state of Georgia.  

Don't want to get to ahead of myself but hopefully these two maps will give you an idea.


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## fountain (Sep 6, 2017)

How bout ol Jose...what he gonna do behind irma...thats another question.  Could it be a double whammy??


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

Central Savannah River Area is right in the heavy precip Mon and Tues... I hope it don't sit and spin.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

fountain said:


> How bout ol Jose...what he gonna do behind irma...thats another question.  Could it be a double whammy??



No.  Jose is a huge fish and he will just swim out in the Atlantic.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

GFS is running... a little play by play for those of you around... The GFS has impressed me with this storm.  Seems to be leading the way on guidance.

at 30 hours she looks to be about the same as the last run.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

It seems to make a good bit of progress between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday, so it looks to be at the very least moving. I'm still nervous about those pressure gradients coming this far inland like that, combined with the rain and the shallow roots of pines. Fortunately most of the trees on my lot are hardwoods, but they're not immune to soaking rain and high winds. Please, oh please, let this thing veer away.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 60 hours she has a little higher pressure (up 7mb) from the previous run.  (slightly weaker) but location is almost identical to the 6Z run.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 66 hours the pressure is back down to 923 mb and she's hammering the north side of Cuba.  She is slightly farther south.  Something that has been noted in the last couple of hours is she is on the south side of her projected path.  Not good in my opinion for Southern Florida.  We will see where she goes.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 72 hours she is really hammering and pressure is dropping.  GFS has it down to 913mb, incredible... at 78 hours she is in beast mode, farther south and pressure is at 902mb.  Unreal.  She's hugging the norther shore of Cuba.

she is way farther south than the 6Z run.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At hour 84 and 90 she starts to come North.  To my eyes she has the Florida Keys on her mind.  Pressure has come up slightly to 909.  She's still a monster storm and crawling.  Makes me think the Upper Level Low is interacting with her and trying to turn her... we will see..


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At hours 96 and 102 she makes the turn North.  The pressure is unreal.  Sub 900 at 895... Wow.

The eye of the Hurricane is on top of Miami and Southern Fl. is getting throttled.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 108 Ft. L and Pampano Beach, West Palm are getting raked.  The Hurricane is scraping the coast and is up to 904 which to me would indicate landfall of some type.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At hour 126 she has bounced out into the Atlantic but she has lost steam, her pressure is up to 924 mb.  Probably a CAT 3 type storm, still a major Hurricane and coming directly into Savannah.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 132 she is right over Augusta and is still throttling along.  This is bad for GA and SC.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

NE GA mountains in this scenario will get hammered with rain as well as it basically goes right up the GA / SC line.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

I better goto the store today.


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## Danny Leigh (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Fortunately most of the trees on my lot are hardwoods, but they're not immune to soaking rain and high winds. Please, oh please, let this thing veer away.



With Opal in 1995 we lost about 15 hardwoods and the pines were not affected. Many of the oaks came up from the roots but some were also broken. Still have a hickory that's leaning from Opal but it's not leaning toward any structures.

Ossabaw Island had oaks and pines pushed over and broken from Matthew last year and they might get battered again with this storm.


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## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

DDD said:


> At hour 126 she has bounced out into the Atlantic but she has lost steam, her pressure is up to 924 mb.  Probably a CAT 3 type storm, still a major Hurricane and coming directly into Savannah.



And this pic is exactly why we'll be leaving SSI and headed inland.


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 6, 2017)

Danny Leigh said:


> With Opal in 1995 we lost about 15 hardwoods and the pines were not affected. Many of the oaks came up from the roots but some were also broken. Still have a hickory that's leaning from Opal but it's not leaning toward any structures.
> 
> Ossabaw Island had oaks and pines pushed over and broken from Matthew last year and they might get battered again with this storm.



That's crazy about diff trees and affects aint it? I have a lone huge pine in my yard and its stood thru lots of high winds and one Saturday of wind gust that topped about 6 oak trees 20 feet from it. Ive lost at least 2 oaks in the yard in 8 years and that one pine is still holding on.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

Danny Leigh said:


> With Opal in 1995 we lost about 15 hardwoods and the pines were not affected. Many of the oaks came up from the roots but some were also broken. Still have a hickory that's leaning from Opal but it's not leaning toward any structures.
> 
> Ossabaw Island had oaks and pines pushed over and broken from Matthew last year and they might get battered again with this storm.



Well, there goes me getting any sleep until this thing passes. This is my back yard, with the tree edge coming within 10-15ft of the house on the left side of this shot.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

"Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2017

(WRDW/WAGT) -- Folks across the nation are monitoring Hurricane Irma.

We are on your side, providing you with an update. Right now, Irma maintains strength as a category 5 storm with sustained winds of 185 mph. 

And, the NHC forecast has been shifting to the East, which may help out Florida's West Coast. This is bad news for Miami - Ft. Lauderdale and Georgia - South Carolina. This scenario will make stronger winds and heavy rain in parts of the CSRA more likely. Impacts as of now for the CSRA would be Monday and Tuesday, with potential gusty winds of 30-50 mph, gusts up to 60 mph, heavy rains of five to 10 inches and possible isolated tornadoes.

Charleston, Savannah, or Myrtle Beach could have a much bigger impact from this storm's wind, rain, and storm surge. The track could still change. This is certainly something to keep an eye on for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

The next update will be around 2 pm., but specific trajectory as far where exactly Hurricane Irma will end up will not be known soon."


Well its going to be crowded at the stores soon.


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## Danny Leigh (Sep 6, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> That's crazy about diff trees and affects aint it? I have a lone huge pine in my yard and its stood thru lots of high winds and one Saturday of wind gust that topped about 6 oak trees 20 feet from it. Ive lost at least 2 oaks in the yard in 8 years and that one pine is still holding on.



We had a big pine next to the house when Opal went through. I kept worrying about it, but it didn't budge. Sat there and listened to trees falling every 30 min until finally an oak split and hit the house.

StriperRR, with Opal we were on the eastern side of the storm as it went through AL. If Irma goes up through Augusta, then I would imagine SC will get it worse than GA.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

Danny Leigh said:


> We had a big pine next to the house when Opal went through. I kept worrying about it, but it didn't budge. Sat there and listened to trees falling every 30 min until finally an oak split and hit the house.
> 
> StriperRR, with Opal we were on the eastern side of the storm as it went through AL. If Irma goes up through Augusta, then I would imagine SC will get it worse than GA.



Very true, I hadn't considered that in my fret.


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## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Very true, I hadn't considered that in my fret.



Western side is always better, however, this storm's diameter is HUGE.  Will it still be that way when it comes on shore?  Long way to go... we are a week out.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

DDD said:


> Western side is always better, however, this storm's diameter is HUGE.  Will it still be that way when it comes on shore?  Long way to go... we are a week out.



Yeah, true fretting will come closer to the weekend and definitely on Monday/Tuesday.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Well, there goes me getting any sleep until this thing passes. This is my back yard, with the tree edge coming within 10-15ft of the house on the left side of this shot.



You walk a fine line between the trees actually protecting your house a bit by slowing the winds down vs the risk of them falling over on it.  My place I am on top of a hill with no trees close enough to slow the wind down.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

keithsto said:


> You walk a fine line between the trees actually protecting your house a bit by slowing the winds down vs the risk of them falling over on it.  My place I am on top of a hill with no trees close enough to slow the wind down.


I'm kind of down in a hole, so hopefully that in and of itself helps and we don't get any trees down. All of the trees in my pic are on the north and west sides of my house, so if that's the primary wind direction I'm hoping my bowl is enough to keep them from being in danger because the wind will have them coming right for us otherwise.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I'm kind of down in a hole, so hopefully that in and of itself helps and we don't get any trees down. All of the trees in my pic are on the north and west sides of my house, so if that's the primary wind direction I'm hoping my bowl is enough to keep them from being in danger because the wind will have them coming right for us otherwise.



 Flowery Branch, GA  you be ok.


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 6, 2017)

I have a front yard full of hardwoods. Side yard full and one black walnut tree in the back along with that giant pine. This is all on about .7 acres. They are great for shade in the summer and keeps my cooling bill down bec the whole house is covered by their shade all day but makes me a nervous wreck come storm season. Luckily ive only had two major incidences in 8 years. Both times the trees missed the house.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Flowery Branch, GA  you be ok.



Certainly won't be as bad as those on the coast, but any damage to my place is bad, and I'd feel the same about anyone's, no matter their location.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

As you can see from these four model products a general consensus appears to be met, with the exception of the Canadian which is still a rogue model.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

Based on those pressures, what are we looking at? Cat 3?

Any thought to it increasing in intensity when it hits the warmer water in South FL?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Based on those pressures, what are we looking at? Cat 3?
> 
> Any thought to it increasing in intensity when it hits the warmer water in South FL?



Yes, roughly a cat 3, but looking at the ocean temps at present location and S. Fl. there is very little difference to effect anything.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, roughly a cat 3, but looking at the ocean temps at present location and S. Fl. there is very little difference to effect anything.



10-4. I read an article earlier that thought it may intensify, but wasn't sure if anything was pointing that direction.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

ssramage said:


> 10-4. I read an article earlier that thought it may intensify, but wasn't sure if anything was pointing that direction.



There seems to be a divide between old Hurricane knowledge and knew. This knew group of forecasters think a hurricane can just strengthen as much as it wants and sustain that strength forever. 

Back in the day, even with Andrew a Cat5 could only sustain maximum intensity so long before it cycled through a Cat3 or Cat4 classification again. It's almost like the cyclical dynamics were as such that they were self destructive in nature over the long run for any storm attempting to maintain a high Cat5 rating. 

Not sure why that isn't part of the Mets discussion this go around.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

I do like the new runs that suggest it will stay further east. Keep bending it that way and keep it away from even the coast.


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I do like the new runs that suggest it will stay further east. Keep bending it that way and keep it away from even the coast.



She's going to come on shore, it's just a matter of where and how strong.  Long way to go before she finds land though.  Wouldn't surprise me to see the models waffle some more.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 6, 2017)

DDD said:


> She's going to come on shore, it's just a matter of where and how strong.  Long way to go before she finds land though.  Wouldn't surprise me to see the models waffle some more.



I just saw one of Panovich's posts where there's one projection they're saying keeps it out over at least the sounds of NC, if not the Banks. As bad as it would be out there, that's better than anywhere inland.


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I just saw one of Panovich's posts where there's one projection they're saying keeps it out over at least the sounds of NC, if not the Banks. As bad as it would be out there, that's better than anywhere inland.



That track is in the minority at this point.  So is the track he showed coming straight through FL and GA.  But... Anything is possible.


----------



## Head East (Sep 6, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> "Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2017
> 
> (WRDW/WAGT) -- Folks across the nation are monitoring Hurricane Irma.
> 
> ...




The wind speeds discussed in this article does not say how long they will be sustained.  As I have only been in 1 storm like this, the winds seemed to howl at these speeds forever... 

Mig or DDD, if this did come onshore, how long would a person expect these wind speeds to be sustained?  4 hours?  more/less?  Thanks for your input.

Fuzzy..what store you going to?  I want to make sure i get my share of bread and milk.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

I bought out all of Kroger... Harbor Freight is a mad house.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

Head East said:


> Mig or DDD, if this did come onshore, how long would a person expect these wind speeds to be sustained?  4 hours?  more/less?  Thanks for your input.



Absolutely no way in the world to know the answer to that one.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Absolutely no way in the world to know the answer to that one.



If.............

If the tropical wind field remained at around 140 miles wide...

And

If the system kept it's present 14mph pace.....

And

If the system passed directly over your location....

10 hours of 39+mph winds.

That's a lot of if's.

If TWC sees this complicated formula, they may air it on the TV.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> If.............
> 
> If the tropical wind field remained at around 140 miles wide...
> 
> ...



I just saw a reputable source on Twitter post a picture of Irma overlayed on Jupiter attempting to say Irma was nearly as wide. 

Who dreams up this stupid non-sense, even worse, who's stupid enough to fall for it? Our society is doomed, but not from a natural disaster. We are plum eat up with the stupids.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

Interesting Stats


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)




----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

I guess the hurricane will disappear after going through one county


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 6, 2017)

Deal is an idiot as usual.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 6, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I guess the hurricane will disappear after going through one county



It's a tidal surge issue. Only the coastal counties get that love.


----------



## Head East (Sep 6, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Absolutely no way in the world to know the answer to that one.



So is that a no?


----------



## Head East (Sep 6, 2017)

Guess I better go see what fuzzy left at the Kroger


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 6, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I guess the hurricane will disappear after going through one county


The governor doesn't make that determination.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 6, 2017)

Reports on Twitter state Irma snapped all of the cell towers on the island of Barbuda. Wow.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 6, 2017)

Hearing that Cantore is on Tybee...


----------



## Wycliff (Sep 6, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Hearing that Cantore is on Tybee...



I hope not


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 6, 2017)

Wycliff said:


> I hope not



Me either... Hope he is in a john boat 100 yrds out


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

A little play by play on the GFS that is running now..

Picking up at 78 hours she is just SE of Miami but not as strong as the 18Z GFS... maybe a tad east of the 18z operational run... let's see if that means anything down stream...


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

In this run of the GFS, she misses hitting land in Miami.  At 84 hours the pressure has dropeed to 899 and she is probably still at CAT 5 strength.  At 90 hours she has stayed completely over water.  The pressure is un-changed and is holding at 905mb.  This is obviously EAST of the last run.


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 96 hours she is 50-75 miles off the coast of Florida and headed straight north.  Pressure is up to 908 mb.  The water around Jax, SAV, and up the east coast is cooler than the water down around Miami.  So maybe that will help keep the force of this beast down.


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 102 I think this thing is going to head towards SC and NC... I could be wrong though.  Lets see where she goes...


----------



## DDD (Sep 6, 2017)

At 114 She's on a b-line for Myrtle Beach, SC.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

And at 126 Irma is making landfall just south of Myrtle Beach, SC.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

This run of the GFS spares Savannah.  It hammers South Carolina.  Very strong Hurricane as it approaches Myrtle Beach.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Man I'm loving these temps.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

00z Canadian has landfall at Wilmington and points northward.

00z GFS has landfall at Myrtle Beach

00z Euro & GEFS moves Landfall #1 back west a little in S. Florida then maintains a Savannah Landfall.

What's the point? The GFS has been the scourge of weather models all year and the Euro has been the go to model. GFS has always been notorious for waffling, even during it's good days. 

So how do you know where the SE landfall will be? At this point you don't and will have to be prepared from the Ga coast all of the way up to the NC Coast. Until she comes through Florida these model maps will be continually updating every 6 and 12 hours (depending on the model product)

I can tell you this, from talking to my storm chaser buddy, he is zeroed in on a Myrtle Beach to Wilmington landfall and headed that way now. 

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Interesting wind cust projection IF the Euro were to win out on the path.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Another potential wind field map, again all betting on Euro being the go to model.


----------



## georgia357 (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Interesting wind cust projection IF the Euro were to win out on the path.



Looking at this map I'm assuming that it looks like Athens and Augusta area might get some high winds.  True?


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 7, 2017)

My entire fam is in Myrtle. Trying to get my dad to come to Jawga. Some people are thicker than tar. SMH.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man I'm loving these temps.



Its amazing outside


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 7, 2017)

43 right now here in the NC mountains. Nice!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Well lookie at who has come back around to the Euro thinking. I told y'all the GFS would waffle. 

06z GFS


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Oh jeez. Why can't Jose just go out to sea like it was suppose to?

Here's what Ryan Maue is saying is a potential .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

georgia357 said:


> Looking at this map I'm assuming that it looks like Athens and Augusta area might get some high winds.  True?


Augusta moreso than Athens, based on the currrent track, but don't count anything out until the fat lady has sung. 


Patriot44 said:


> My entire fam is in Myrtle. Trying to get my dad to come to Jawga. Some people are thicker than tar. SMH.


He's not going to like it, even with a Charleston landfall, he won't like it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Too many scenarios to post pix for, but go to this link and understand that these surge maps apply mostly if you are on the NE side of the eyewall at landfall. 

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

Example; A Cat 3 landfall at SSI would put water all the way up into Ft. Stewart.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well lookie at who has come back around to the Euro thinking. I told y'all the GFS would waffle.
> 
> 06z GFS



What do the power pole symbols mean?


----------



## RinggoldGa (Sep 7, 2017)

Miggy,

Wind in Athens going to be bad enough to warrant me going to rescue my fifth wheel parked there when I return from South Bend Indiana Sunday evening?  

Go Dawgs!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> What do the power pole symbols mean?


Are you referring to the wind barbs?



RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy,
> 
> Wind in Athens going to be bad enough to warrant me going to rescue my fifth wheel parked there when I return from South Bend Indiana Sunday evening?
> 
> Go Dawgs!



Honestly I couldn't answer that one. We could see some pretty high gust in the 50 to 75 mph range, but I wouldn't expect a sustained wind in that range. This also depends on where your 5th wheel is parked (near trees etc)

You'll have to be the judge of that one.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well lookie at who has come back around to the Euro thinking. I told y'all the GFS would waffle.
> 
> 06z GFS



This is still BAD news for coastal GA, especially the islands. A lot of people down here are taking the flip flopping back and forth as a sign to stay. It's still going to be nasty.

Also that pressure reading would suggest a much stronger storm than the NHC is suggesting at landfall.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Are you referring to the wind barbs?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hoping that slow jog east continues and Athens stays in a lower wind zone than currently predicted.  I'll have a decision to make Sunday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

ssramage said:


> This is still BAD news for coastal GA, especially the islands. A lot of people down here are taking the flip flopping back and forth as a sign to stay. It's still going to be nasty.
> 
> Also that pressure reading would suggest a much stronger storm than the NHC is suggesting at landfall.



The GFS is only one model of many and this is only one potential landfall of many. It is not a set in stone forecast. 

Typically the west side of a hurricane is the most benign. Wind will be moving from inshore to offshore in this scenario of a landfall. Most if not all of the rain will be on the ENE side of the storm. 

Waffling on your decision to bail with a cat 5 bearing down on you is never a smart decision, but thus far, nothing is set in stone. The down side to them waiting is getting stranded in evac traffic and stuck in a car  N. of Savannah in 100+ mph winds, debris flying and rain.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Is my avatar appropriate?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Is my avatar appropriate?



It will be sooner or later.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It will be sooner or later.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

Wind barbs... I googled it thanks


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Anywho.... What about the system in the Gulf... Whats that one doing? Im just thinking about the folks in Texas.


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 7, 2017)

I'm in statesboro should I worry about getting wiped off the map?


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

The black stick of death said:


> I'm in statesboro should I worry about getting wiped off the map?



Not any worse than Auburn did you guys...

Bazinga.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

The black stick of death said:


> I'm in statesboro should I worry about getting wiped off the map?



It will be a tad breezy there if landfall occurs as currently projected.


----------



## joepuppy (Sep 7, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Not any worse than Auburn did you guys...
> 
> Bazinga.



Ouch.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Anywho.... What about the system in the Gulf... Whats that one doing? Im just thinking about the folks in Texas.


It should head SW


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A
> 
> He's not going to like it, even with a Charleston landfall, he won't like it.



Working on him again this morning. Too many meth addicts to leave and too much stuff to leave behind.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

I guess my Hunting camper down in Emanuel county is gonna blow away.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Working on him again this morning. Too many meth addicts to leave and too much stuff to leave behind.


Trip wires, pressure plate triggers and a fair amount of c-4 should deter the first wave of Methheads. 


Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I guess my Hunting camper down in Emanuel county is gonna blow away.



It might get a ding or three.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Working on him again this morning. Too many meth addicts to leave and too much stuff to leave behind.


Theys meth in south Carolina????


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Brian McNoldy just posted this on Twitter. Kind of cool. 







<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Absolutely uncanny copy-paste from 7 years ago. Very bizarre. #Irma #Jose #Katia #Igor #Julia #Karl pic.twitter.com/SHzo0BbZdq</p>— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 7, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## rydert (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I guess my Hunting camper down in Emanuel county is gonna blow away.



if you get down this way and need some help moving it, call me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

The NAM models are beginning to come in range. 
More confusion to add to the game.


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 7, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Theys meth in south Carolina????



Hurricanes attract them like flies to manure.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

As early as Saturday the high tides on the GA coast could begin to feel the effects of Irma. This 850mb wind map shows a 20 to 25 kt onshore flow, which will aid in pushing tidal waters up higher than normal.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

rydert said:


> if you get down this way and need some help moving it, call me.



Thanks, I'm going to put it between a track of 8 and 15 yr old pines perpendicular to the wind direction. Hopefully this will work.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel, may be coincidence but maybe there's science behind it also that I don't know...

Over the last several days, the overnight models have tended to track this storm further to the east. With each daytime model, it tracks back to the west. Any reason why it does that, or is it just coincidence?


----------



## lagrangedave (Sep 7, 2017)

Good question. I wonder if day to night temps affects it. It seems like it would.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Miguel, may be coincidence but maybe there's science behind it also that I don't know...
> 
> Over the last several days, the overnight models have tended to track this storm further to the east. With each daytime model, it tracks back to the west. Any reason why it does that, or is it just coincidence?



Very little wobble in the 24 hour Euro & GEFS.
The GFS has always been squirrely. I suspect it's more to do with the data input into it's parameters than the algorithm itself. (yes, squirrely is now a word)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

For you folks in Alpharetta, this is just a test. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">per AlpharettaDPS, Tornado warning sirens will be tested today at noon.  REMEMBER, IT&#39;S JUST A TEST! #wsbtv</p>— WSB-TV News Desk (@WSBTVNewsdesk) September 7, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

That's a lot of 0-30mph traffic folks.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

If you want the latest GFS, here you go.  Yes, possible hurricane force winds inland to Augusta.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> If you want the latest GFS, here you go.  Yes, possible hurricane force winds inland to Augusta.



You willing to guarantee that forecast?


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> If you want the latest GFS, here you go.  Yes, possible hurricane force winds inland to Augusta.



Crap. That's just about a direct hit on our area.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Sep 7, 2017)

Just off Gov. Deal's FB page...

BREAKING NEWS:
Following a recommendation from Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMA/HS) officials and local Emergency Management Agencies, Gov. Nathan Deal is expanding his emergency declaration to include 24 additional counties, with a total of 30 counties now included in a state of emergency. Deal also issued a mandatory evacuation order for all areas east of I-95, all of Chatham County and some areas west of I-95 that could be impacted by potential storm surge from Hurricane Irma. The executive order also authorized up to 5,000 Georgia National Guard members to be on state active duty to support Hurricane Irma response and recovery. The state of emergency prohibits price gouging for all goods and services related to the storm. Read the executive order here.
“The state is mobilizing all available resources to ensure public safety ahead of Hurricane Irma,” said Deal. “I encourage all Georgians in our coastal areas that could be impacted by this storm to evacuate the area as soon as possible. Beginning Saturday, a mandatory evacuation order will take effect for Chatham County, all areas east of I-95 and some areas west of I-95 that could be impacted by this catastrophic hurricane and storm surge. GEMA/HS continues leading our preparedness efforts as we coordinate with federal, state and local officials to safely evacuate the coastal areas, provide public shelter and minimize the disruption of traffic. Finally, I ask all Georgians to join me in praying for the safety of our people and all those in Hurricane Irma’s path.”
The 30 counties under a state of emergency are: Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Brantley, Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Camden, Candler, Charlton, Chatham, Clinch, Coffee, Echols, Effingham, Emanuel, Evans, Glynn, Jenkins, Jeff Davis, Liberty, Long, McIntosh, Pierce, Screven, Tattnall, Toombs, Treutlen, Wayne and Ware Counties.
A map of mandatory evacuation areas and a list of local emergency management authorities are attached.
Gov. Deal and the State Operation Command Team will hold a news conference Friday morning at 10 a.m. to provide updates on storm preparations. A livestream of the conference will be available. Read the rest here: https://gov.georgia.gov/…/deal-expands-state-emergency-24-a…


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You willing to guarantee that forecast?



As willing as I am to bet the ranch on a foot of snow on February 14th.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> Just off Gov. Deal's FB page...
> 
> BREAKING NEWS:
> Following a recommendation from Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMA/HS) officials and local Emergency Management Agencies, Gov. Nathan Deal is expanding his emergency declaration to include 24 additional counties, with a total of 30 counties now included in a state of emergency. Deal also issued a mandatory evacuation order for all areas east of I-95, all of Chatham County and some areas west of I-95 that could be impacted by potential storm surge from Hurricane Irma. The executive order also authorized up to 5,000 Georgia National Guard members to be on state active duty to support Hurricane Irma response and recovery. The state of emergency prohibits price gouging for all goods and services related to the storm. Read the executive order here.
> ...



Mass hysteria in 3,2,1....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> As willing as I am to bet the ranch on a foot of snow on February 14th.



So that's a no. got it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Mandatory evac areas. This means you stay, you pay.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Contraflow traffic information.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Take note:


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Y'all be praying for all of our first responders from Florida to North Carolina.  Not only because of the weather, but because those who couldn't drive before are now on the road with everyone else.  This puts police, fire and EMS folks in harms way.

That said, my wife will probably be transporting babies out of Savannah's NICU's starting tonight through the weekend.  She's just one of thousands that are putting themselves in the mix.  Yeah, it's what she signed up for and there is a part of her that loves it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all be praying for all of our first responders from Florida to North Carolina.  Not only because of the weather, but because those who couldn't drive before are now on the road with everyone else.  This puts police, fire and EMS folks in harms way.
> 
> That said, my wife will probably be transporting babies out of Savannah's NICU's starting tonight through the weekend.  She's just one of thousands that are putting themselves in the mix.  Yeah, it's what she signed up for and there is a part of her that loves it.



She'll be in my thoughts as will they all.


----------



## Keebs (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all be praying for all of our first responders from Florida to North Carolina.  Not only because of the weather, but because those who couldn't drive before are now on the road with everyone else.  This puts police, fire and EMS folks in harms way.
> 
> That said, my wife will probably be transporting babies out of Savannah's NICU's starting tonight through the weekend.  She's just one of thousands that are putting themselves in the mix.  Yeah, it's what she signed up for and there is a part of her that loves it.


's to keep her & those babies safe!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all be praying for all of our first responders from Florida to North Carolina.  Not only because of the weather, but because those who couldn't drive before are now on the road with everyone else.  This puts police, fire and EMS folks in harms way.
> 
> That said, my wife will probably be transporting babies out of Savannah's NICU's starting tonight through the weekend.  She's just one of thousands that are putting themselves in the mix.  Yeah, it's what she signed up for and there is a part of her that loves it.



Just texted my wife, on shift, to find out their SOP during evac and diversion. They are full but have agreed to take up to 7 NICU babies from other facilities under Evac. 

Folks don't realize how fast this can get critical for the medical community. When hospitals aren't operating and move patients to other facilities in the state it causes a diversion crisis where there isn't a place for new sick folks to go. 

If Irma actually does landfall in or near the Ga/SC coast this is going to get real crazy real fast. 

Tell your little lady to stay safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Euro is out. This is bad. Real bad. We are running out of time for too many more drastic model changes between now and landfall. Hope this one can be scrapped in favor of an offshore miss, but it is looking less and less likely.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

With what the mexican showed above the winds in Valdosta would be around 100mph.  Just let that soak in.


----------



## rydert (Sep 7, 2017)

don't look like they know where that thing is going..


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> With what the mexican showed above the winds in Valdosta would be around 100mph.  Just let that soak in.



I still have nightmares about your relatives place on Sinclair. I am two miles from there sitting amongst the pines that won't take that map.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

That map just put a knot in my stomach


----------



## fountain (Sep 7, 2017)

Is there any maps or forecasts that show possible rainfall for different areas?


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

sinclair1 said:


> I still have nightmares about your relatives place on Sinclair. I am two miles from there sitting amongst the pines that won't take that map.



Yep.  They sold that joint last month.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

fountain said:


> Is there any maps or forecasts that show possible rainfall for different areas?



Does this help?


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Obviously the Eastern side of the eye gets the water.

With the EURO solution shift that water 100 miles West.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just texted my wife, on shift, to find out their SOP during evac and diversion. They are full but have agreed to take up to 7 NICU babies from other facilities under Evac.
> 
> Folks don't realize how fast this can get critical for the medical community. When hospitals aren't operating and move patients to other facilities in the state it causes a diversion crisis where there isn't a place for new sick folks to go.
> 
> ...



The hospital I work for sent one of our 6 helicopters and a full team (pilots, nurses, mechanics) to Texas at FEMA's request.  They were one of many staged to help with evac of critical patients due to Harvey.  They were one of the few trained for PICU/NICU patients and did a lot of that.  Would not be shocked to see them deployed to Ga coast early next week.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Here is your wind map from the EURO solution.


----------



## fountain (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Does this help?



It does, thanks.  If that last model is correct, I'm guessing the rainfall could increase as well.  The Monday map has it seeming to run more centered in Florida than previously predicted.  Not looking good for my area if it holds that course.  Maybe more maps come out soon to help us out


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

fountain said:


> It does, thanks.  If that last model is correct, I'm guessing the rainfall could increase as well.  The Monday map has it seeming to run more centered in Florida than previously predicted.  Not looking good for my area if it holds that course.  Maybe more maps come out soon to help us out



It will all change before landfall in S. Fl. Guaranteed, but whether it's for the better or worse at this point nobody knows. 

Tracking hurricanes is like nailing jello to a tree.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> The hospital I work for sent one of our 6 helicopters and a full team (pilots, nurses, mechanics) to Texas at FEMA's request.  They were one of many staged to help with evac of critical patients due to Harvey.  They were one of the few trained for PICU/NICU patients and did a lot of that.  Would not be shocked to see them deployed to Ga coast early next week.



When we did evacs at Dobbins AFB for Rita one of the first off of a C141 in from Texas was a newborn, it's mom and the accompanying NICU RN. Craziest thing I've ever seen or heard of, but it was a last minute triage decision on the ground in Texas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Just watched the HRWF loop. Stupid crazy shifts in this storm if it happens


----------



## georgia357 (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Here is your wind map from the EURO solution.



Now that scares the bejesus out of me.


----------



## malak05 (Sep 7, 2017)

Yeah seeing the Euro solution this time and rain and wind possiblities for GA reminds me if hurricane Opal maybe as far as potential impact geez nope you can have that.... I guess the whole SE is watching these models now and playing hot potatoes with them with each other nobody wants it to get them


----------



## Crakajak (Sep 7, 2017)

DDD said:


> Here is your wind map from the EURO solution.



That should make everyone sit up strait and pay attention.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Sep 7, 2017)

That wind map is not good.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Sharpen you chainsaws boys..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

18z gfs running right now. 

Y'all sit tight.


----------



## malak05 (Sep 7, 2017)

18z so far breaking toward the Euro


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

malak05 said:


> 18z so far breaking toward the Euro



Coming in on the same track as the NAM. Waiting to see if it will stay onshore or follow the NAM back out to the Atlantic


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Looks like it's going to follow the NAM instead of the Euro.


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like it's going to follow the NAM instead of the Euro.



Is that good news?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

We want know the exact area of GA for another 48hrs


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Is that good news?


None of it is good news. This one's gonna tear up some stuff, it's just a matter of what and where. 

I am really not happy about what I am seeing. It just keeps getting worse and worse.

12z euro hr72 & 96











18z GFS hr72 & 96 It doesn't follow the nam but follows a course up the west coastal interior of Fl. 










18z NAM hr66 & 84


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> We want know the exact area of GA for another 48hrs



Longer than that. Regardless of what the EURO and GFS say, hurricanes do not like to travel along land unless there is a dominate steering mechanism making them do so. 

I wouldn't be shocked to see the EURO carry this back to it's original Keys landfall and into the gulf before crossing back over into the Atlantic scenario before it's all said and done.  

Nailing jello to a tree. Herding cats. Teaching white boys to jump. 

Pick your poison. It's all difficult.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

I hope it goes inland and falls apart. Inland GA wasn't built to withstand hurricane force winds.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I hope it goes inland and falls apart. Inland GA wasn't built to withstand hurricane force winds.



You and me both, but it ain't lookin good so far. 
Harvey was still a Cat1 two days after going inland. Crazy stuff.


----------



## malak05 (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You and me both, but it ain't lookin good so far.
> Harvey was still a Cat1 two days after going inland. Crazy stuff.



Not to stir the pot as it is several days out and many variables for changing but that Cat 1 Scenario isn't out of realm of possiblity over Atlanta based on some of that output recently.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Not to stir the pot as it is several days out and many variables for changing but that Cat 1 Scenario isn't out of realm of possiblity over Atlanta based on some of that output recently.



I know, it is hard to fathom and tough to accept.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You and me both, but it ain't lookin good so far.
> Harvey was still a Cat1 two days after going inland. Crazy stuff.



What about the high pressure from the north wouldn't it stall Irma?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> What about the high pressure from the north wouldn't it stall Irma?



Nope it is moving out while Irma is moving in and what is forcing Irma to stay on a north westerly track while inland. 

I'm not going public (as in FB) with this yet, but yous is my peeps and I want you to know what concerns me about this latest GFS track, reinforcing the EURO.

Look at this map. This is 80-90 kt winds well inland approaching the ATL area. That is 100mph winds folks, sustained, not gusts. That is just crazy!!!

This forecast has to change and moderate over the next 48 hours to something in the realm of sanity that my brain can get a good grasp on. 

PLEASE do not jump all over Social Media spreading the rumor that Miggy said................
This has to moderate some over the next few model runs. Well at least I keep telling myself that.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope it is moving out while Irma is moving in and what is forcing Irma to stay on a north westerly track while inland.
> 
> I'm not going public (as in FB) with this yet, but yous is my peeps and I want you to know what concerns me about this latest GFS track, reinforcing the EURO.
> 
> ...




Crap. I'm currently evacuating SSI for middle GA.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

That would be the ice storm plus flooding.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

To the Euro's credit it does allow for a bit more degradation in strength once inland than the GFS does.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

18z HRWF running right now. Waiting to see how it adjusts given the latest other model runs.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

Still puts sustained winds in Augusta at 50mph


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Still puts sustained winds in Augusta at 50mph



fingers crossed for some sanity over the next 48 hours


----------



## 91xjgawes (Sep 7, 2017)

Yep. Looks rough for us in Augusta.


----------



## havin_fun_huntin (Sep 7, 2017)

Just here for the updates


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Not tryin to cause a panic, but buying the longest range walkie talkies you can find and making sure your family and friends have one might not be a bad idea right now.


----------



## GoldDot40 (Sep 7, 2017)

My boss is in the National Guard. Called me today and said his unit was activated today. He's in Augusta.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

GoldDot40 said:


> My boss is in the National Guard. Called me today and said his unit was activated today. He's in Augusta.



Yep.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Winds along both coasts of Florida peninsula at 100-meters will be considerably stronger sustained w/much higher gusts from Hurricane #Irma pic.twitter.com/n6wXqY1WY5</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 7, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## SGADawg (Sep 7, 2017)

If that stands, it looks like it will be in my yard Monday.  Douglas, Ga.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 7, 2017)

Looks like mixed gas and a sharp chainsaw is in order for folks on Ga


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 7, 2017)

See what the models say tomorrow hope it keeps on a western course


----------



## doenightmare (Sep 7, 2017)

This ain't good Miggy. Please speak to the euro and have them revise these maps.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 7, 2017)

200 miles from the nearest coast. Never have I thought I would need to worry about HURRICANE winds here in Good Hope, GA. Scaring the BADWORD outta me.


----------



## BriarPatch99 (Sep 7, 2017)

According to those last maps ... Saginaw, GA will be in the eye come Monday ... !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Had to find a map that made me feel just a little bit better for the time being. You know, denial and all that. 

The HRWF was just the ticket. Though still a little breezy in Augusta, not near as menacing as the EURO and GFS were.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 7, 2017)

I'm sure someone on here has a good storm shelter. Let's all just meet there and pass around a good bottle of bourbon.


----------



## rydert (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Had to find a map that made me feel just a little bit better for the time being. You know, denial and all that.
> 
> The HRWF was just the ticket. Though still a little breezy in Augusta, not near as menacing as the EURO and GFS were.



Now this is more like it....100 mph winds in Atlanta for this thing was just silly talk.


----------



## havin_fun_huntin (Sep 7, 2017)

Aside from your denial with is more likely to happen or tends to be more accurate models


----------



## Head East (Sep 7, 2017)

Schrodinger's cat...lol. Right now each is right and wrong.  Won't know until we look in the box


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Head East said:


> Schrodinger's cat...lol. Right now each is right and wrong.  Won't know until we look in the box


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 7, 2017)

Will there be any major storm surges on the Tampa side from the wrap around bands?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Will there be any major storm surges on the Tampa side from the wrap around bands?



I honestly don't know the answer to that. Logic would dictate that some surge effect would be possible, but I don't know that such a situation has ever occurred with a storm of this magnitude, or any magnitude for that matter, running right up the middle of Florida.

I'm gonna leave this one for the pro's to figure out.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm gonna leave this one for the pro's to figure out.



Another one for the record books.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2017)

Ughhhhh. Going to bed so I can check the 00z models at about 0130.


----------



## fountain (Sep 7, 2017)

Ewwww....that is bad...real bad...i just saw this on wtoc as well.  Middle ga has likely never seen anything like this, or if it has, it has been a long time.


----------



## Greene728 (Sep 7, 2017)

I don't like that map at all Mig! That last one is dead center of my house!!! This stinks! Opal again??? We didn't have power for 8 days after her.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

I am going to do some GFS play by play... here we go.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 18 hours she is stronger on this run than the 18z run.  The last run of the GFS was a big one as it pummeled Florida... lets see what happens this run


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 24 hours she is stronger than the last run, pressure is down to 921mb compared to 927 on the last run... I don't like this one bit.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 30 hours its just turning into an absolute monster.  It's 8mb lower now than at the same time on the previous run (at 36 hours)

She's scraping the Cuba coast on this run as well...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 42 hours She is just getting stronger, now at 906mb and tightly wound... She's starting to make the turn north towards Miami...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 48 hours she is obviously making the turn, not a big jog from 42 hours and the pressure is the same...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Also at 48 hours I am guessing here, but she is 50-75 miles East of the 18z run.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 54 hours the pressure is sub 900 at 899... looks identical to position now in relation to the 60 hour position on the 18z...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 60 hours its hard to tell but looks like it's on shore dead over head in Miami and just hammering.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 66 it is moving due north right on the coast line and has a pressure of 914mb...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 78 she is right over or right off the shore of Daytona.  Hard to tell excatly on the location of the eye.  Pressure is up to 931...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Almost an identical run to the 18z.  Pressure is slightly lower, right on top of or just off the Jax coast...


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 90 hours She is dead over head in Waycross and the dynamics east of there are just rough.  Wind, rain and probably tornadoes.


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 7, 2017)

Not liking what I'm seeing here at all.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

At 96 and 102 she has lost a lot of her punch as she moves into N. GA.  She looks to fall apart sooner than the 18Z advertised.


----------



## DDD (Sep 7, 2017)

Never the less, the GFS operational run is just one model run.

That said, here is the latest power outage map.  This looks ominous.  Time to make sure the generators work.


----------



## lbzdually (Sep 8, 2017)

It is mind-boggling to think of the damage this is going to cause, even hundreds of miles inland.  If the 100 mph winds over Atlanta happen, it will cause billions of dollars of damage just within the city limits, never-mind the rest of the state.


----------



## Greene728 (Sep 8, 2017)

This ain't looking good. Thanks DDD!
Always appreciate what you and MC do!


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> This ain't looking good. Thanks DDD!
> Always appreciate what you and MC do!



Glad to do it.  It's the storm of my lifetime.  No doubt about it.  Records broke, massive destruction, mind boggling from a weather stand point...  It makes me lose sleep, but I enjoy it.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

lbzdually said:


> It is mind-boggling to think of the damage this is going to cause, even hundreds of miles inland.  If the 100 mph winds over Atlanta happen, it will cause billions of dollars of damage just within the city limits, never-mind the rest of the state.



I am trying to get my mind around it.  Best thing I can compare it to is this...

If you were here for the blizzard, do you remember the winds blowing then?  Those were 40-50 MPH sustained with gust to 65.  Trees and limbs went down like mad.

They are talking about gust from 75-90+


----------



## ssramage (Sep 8, 2017)

Apparently Tim Deegan (Jax meteorologist) is telling everyone on the coast not to worry and we're in the clear because it's just going to be a TS over Valdosta.


----------



## Big un (Sep 8, 2017)

I see I'm not alone looking for an update after the 0130 runs


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Euro 00z update just started running. It will take an hour or so.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

00z GFS


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

00z Euro


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

00z HWRF


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

As you can see from all three model updates, I don't have any encouraging news. I guess on the upside you'll get to tell your grandkids,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I remember when, I was there,,,,,,,,,,,


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

I'll do a stop frame on each of the three here so you can see just how intense this storm will be well into Georgia


----------



## Halfhitch (Sep 8, 2017)

Yep, some of us still up watching.

We're going to be impacted in both Florida and Gainesville, with homes and family in both. Miguel and DDD, and others that contribute, thanks for all you do year round...I've learned a lot by reading your posts over the years and continue to do so.

Guess I'll try to get some sleep now too. Thanks again and be safe.


----------



## bam_bam (Sep 8, 2017)

From the looks of the last run that rascal is gonna go right I've the house.


----------



## Wycliff (Sep 8, 2017)

All those look rough


----------



## nickel back (Sep 8, 2017)

did this joker shift west MC?


----------



## GoldDot40 (Sep 8, 2017)

Not sure that much of the state can endure 60-80 mph winds. This may very well get ugly for a lot of us.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Ok, I've had all night to ponder this here bully of a storm and what it might do. Here's the three options I see related to the three most prominent models that we typically use when we get within 48 hours. 

ECMWF (Euro) If Irma takes this path, which I find hard to believe, I do think that she will rapidly degrade if she manages to stay over dry land all of the way up through Florida to Ga where she will be a weak Cat1 at best by the time she gets here. It will get a little breezy for us, but most of her energy will have been robbed from being over land for a couple of days. 

GFS - If Irma takes this route it will be a bad day for the entire East Coast of Florida, but I still think that being half over land takes it's toll on her and she is a decent Cat 3 by the time she hit's the Ga Coast and manages to hold a Cat1 up into the lower half of Ga where she degrades and moves on, but not before doing some good inland wind and spin up damage, mainly on the east side of the storm.

NAM - This is one we haven't talked about much, and it underperformed on Harvey so bad that I hesitated inserting it. But the tracks I'm seeing from it are logical. Back to the original models, the NAM delivers a blow to Miami and up the coast to West Palm and then Irma re-enters the Atlantic and maybe maintains a Cat 3 before landfalling anywhere from Charlston to Wilmington. 

I think we'll see the Euro and GFS both moderate towards the NAM over the next 24 hours and before landfall in near Miami. 

That's my .02 cents worth and I'm sticking with it (mainly for peace of mind) 

That doesn't mean stop preparing and it certainly doesn't mean don't evacuate if you are in a mandatory evac zone. It does mean that there is still some room for some sanity to be interjected into these models before all is said and done.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

Y'all remember hurricane opal?


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 8, 2017)

We all gonna drown ?


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Y'all remember hurricane opal?





Yep. It was another one that near about worked us to death. Our home territory had a lot of lines down on that one.


----------



## mguthrie (Sep 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Y'all remember hurricane opal?



There were acorns everywhere after that storm passed.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Yep. It was another one that near about worked us to death. Our home territory had a lot of lines down on that one.



She made it perty far inland didn't she.. Seems like i remember trees down all over the place here in paulding


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

OK maybe not, yet. The 06z GFS just finished and it has moved towards the EURO 00z solution. We won't get another glimpse at the Euro until the 12z run later this afternoon. That will tell us if the West Coast of Fl and Sowega come into play on this wild goose chase.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> She made it perty far inland didn't she.. Seems like i remember trees down all over the place here in paulding





When it came inland it ran the `Hooch all the way up to Atlanta, I believe. Did some damage up there too.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> When it came inland it ran the `Hooch all the way up to Atlanta, I believe. Did some damage up there too.



Yep thats what I'm remembering! It was wild with strong wind blowing all night long! My gut tells me this next one will be worse.


----------



## bassboy1 (Sep 8, 2017)

> When it came inland it ran the `Hooch all the way up to Atlanta, I believe. Did some damage up there too



From what I've read, it went further than that, and did damage and flooding all the way to northwest NC.


----------



## lagrangedave (Sep 8, 2017)

I went through a falling pecan tree when Opal hit in my Bronco II. I ran a small lumberyard and was on my way to work. I bought 5 truckloads of plywood on my cell phone on the way to work. The owner thought I was crazy. None of them lasted an hour when they hit my yard.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Sep 8, 2017)

bassboy1 said:


> From what I've read, it went further than that, and did damage and flooding all the way to northwest NC.



Opal tore us up here in western NC. Not so much the flooding, but the wind. I was driving to work that morning, and trees were falling across the road around me. Thousands of trees down, and lots of folks out of power for over a week.

The back-to back punch from Frances and Ivan in 2004 washed half my county away. There were bridges gone everywhere, parts of towns wiped out, even sections of interstate washed away.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 8, 2017)

A prudent man is well provisioned.
By Sunday it will be be difficult to find the makings for a milk sammich, anywhere in Ga.


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 8, 2017)

I just went to Wal-Marks to pick up a couple cases of water and nada. The Patriot hizzle dranks about four 36 packers a week. 

People are stupid. SMH!


----------



## bassboy1 (Sep 8, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Opal tore us up here in western NC. Not so much the flooding, but the wind. I was driving to work that morning, and trees were falling across the road around me. Thousands of trees down, and lots of folks out of power for over a week.



My cousin has a vacation house in Avery County that I visit fairly often.  I've heard multiple accounts of the Banner Elk river rising enough that propane tanks were floated off their mountings, and swept downriver.  

That one went a long way on land.  Unreal to think that your area would be hit so hard by a gulf hurricane.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

PopPop said:


> A prudent man is well provisioned.
> By Sunday it will be be difficult to find the makings for a milk sammich, anywhere in Ga.



I never understood why folks rush out to buy perishable items. Canned goods like beer and vianna sausages are a great storm survival kit.


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I never understood why folks rush out to buy perishable items. Canned goods like beer and vianna sausages are a great storm survival kit.



You're a wise man!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Sep 8, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Opal tore us up here in western NC. Not so much the flooding, but the wind. I was driving to work that morning, and trees were falling across the road around me. Thousands of trees down, and lots of folks out of power for over a week.
> 
> The back-to back punch from Frances and Ivan in 2004 washed half my county away. There were bridges gone everywhere, parts of towns wiped out, even sections of interstate washed away.



Opal rendered several sections of my favorite trout stream unfishable for a few years there was so much debris covering the water.  Trees down everywhere.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 8, 2017)

```
nn
```



blood on the ground said:


> I never understood why folks rush out to buy perishable items. Canned goods like beer and vianna sausages are a great storm survival kit.



That will be gone too.
If these forecast go out on local news outlets, you'll see bare shelves well in advance of the storms arrival.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

PopPop said:


> ```
> nn
> ```
> 
> ...



Already all over FB..  Henny Pennys  been hitting the gas pumps so much the fuel trucks cant keep up.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Already all over FB..  Henny Pennys  been hitting the gas pumps so much the fuel trucks cant keep up.



Interesting.
What do you call people standing in a Red Cross soup line?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> OK maybe not, yet. The 06z GFS just finished and it has moved towards the EURO 00z solution. We won't get another glimpse at the Euro until the 12z run later this afternoon. That will tell us if the West Coast of Fl and Sowega come into play on this wild goose chase.



That puts the NE quadrant right over Hall. Models have been showing that as a possibility since last night and I don't like it one bit. Even if it is "just" a tropical storm when it arrives.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

PopPop said:


> Interesting.
> What do you call people standing in a Red Cross soup line?



In a scenario like this, mostly unprepared or arrogant. There are a few people, per capita, that can't transport themselves or get transport out of the danger area and those are the excused and worthy, IMO. Those that stay and ride it out due to pride or thinking that the storm won't be bad for them don't get any concession from me. If you do what's necessary to protect you and yours and you still get hammered I'll give you the shirt off my back to help you out and without question. For those that don't/won't, I'll still do what I can to help but there's a very visible derisive smirk on my face.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Sep 8, 2017)

Yaaaaaa itll come right over us in nw ga now!


----------



## ssramage (Sep 8, 2017)

Sooooo..... what are the chances that this thing shifts back east?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Sep 8, 2017)

The latest GFS is showing it doing a loopte-doo over east Tennessee and coming back across north GA and upstate SC. I've noticed that the HWRF has been chasing the GFS westward for the last couple days, and is starting to show it too.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Sep 8, 2017)

bassboy1 said:


> My cousin has a vacation house in Avery County that I visit fairly often.  I've heard multiple accounts of the Banner Elk river rising enough that propane tanks were floated off their mountings, and swept downriver.
> 
> That one went a long way on land.  Unreal to think that your area would be hit so hard by a gulf hurricane.



17" of rain overnight in the head of a deep V-shaped valley that heads out at over 6,000' elevation can do some amazing things, especially when the streams are still nearly at flood stage from a different hurricane remnant that came through the week before. 

Here in Haywood, there were house trailers, cars, and propane tanks floating down the Pigeon below my house. Water came over a bridge that is normally 35' or more above the water. It washed away half the towns of Canton and Clyde. The whole Biltmore section of Asheville was under a few feet of water. It washed out countless bridges in my county, and washed away a section of I-40 through the Pigeon River Gorge.

A big landslide wiped out a whole valley in Macon county and killed a bunch of people.


----------



## malak05 (Sep 8, 2017)

NAM don't you play us looking almost as if I could make it to western coastline of Florida.... the absolute worst case for GA and W Fl would be to ride that coast nit actually over land...the warm water there with time to maintain most strength into panhandle ando GA plus would be on NE side where you don't want to be as far as tornados and such... let's watch wereally they go today


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

12z NAM is running. Looks like a Keys land fall and then it hooks back out to the Atlantic above Cape Canaveral. Not done, so that is sheer speculation right now, but I know how the NAM thinks. 

Got a few more hours until the real models run. If the NAM has shifted this far west it scares the poopy out of me to think what the Euro and GFS are going to show. 

Like Malak said (I think) if Irma comes in from the gulf side that water is shallow and 5°f warmer. She will be an Opal on steroids if the Atmospheric Pressure in the Atlantic doesn't subside and will run straight up through Tallahassee into Sowega. The NE quadrant naders , wind and rain will wreak havoc on most of the State and we will officially have one big honkin mess. 

We'll see in a few hours if that is the next shift.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12z NAM is running. Looks like a Keys land fall and then it hooks back out to the Atlantic above Cape Canaveral. Not done, so that is sheer speculation right now, but I know how the NAM thinks.
> 
> Got a few more hours until the real models run. If the NAM has shifted this far west it scares the poopy out of me to think what the Euro and GFS are going to show.
> 
> ...



I need new shorts.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I need new shorts.



Talk to DDD. He has some hot pants he's not using anymore.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Talk to DDD. He has some hot pants he's not using anymore.



He's too busy right now to link up with me. I already checked.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> He's too busy right now to link up with me. I already checked.



He's workin and playin Mr. Mom. 
He looks really cute in an apron...


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

PopPop said:


> Interesting.
> What do you call people standing in a Red Cross soup line?



Down and out.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He's workin and playin Mr. Mom.
> He looks really cute in an apron...



Yeah, but then he puts on his ump mask and the effect is ruined. Wonder if he'll be out in full ump regalia for this event live streaming to YouTube.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yeah, but then he puts on his ump mask and the effect is ruined. Wonder if he'll be out in full ump regalia for this event live streaming to YouTube.





That's a good idea....


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> That's a good idea....



Actually, it's a horrible idea and DDD, nor GON, condone, endorse, or otherwise the approval of such a suggestion and that anyone who engages in such an idea agree to hold StripeRR HunteRR, Ltd., DDD, Inc., and GON and their agents, representatives, and associates harmless as to the result of their participation in such an ill advised activity.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Well... might as well do some 12Z play by play GFS... lets go..


----------



## PopPop (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Down and out.



Bout right.
I'll be out joyriding, eatin vienners and drinking beer, watching the sky fall.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12z NAM is running. Looks like a Keys land fall and then it hooks back out to the Atlantic above Cape Canaveral. Not done, so that is sheer speculation right now, but I know how the NAM thinks.
> 
> Got a few more hours until the real models run. If the NAM has shifted this far west it scares the poopy out of me to think what the Euro and GFS are going to show.
> 
> ...





Sowega done had enough catastrophic weather this year. Let`s skip this one, please.


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Well... might as well do some 12Z play by play GFS... lets go..



Ready...

Been looking at this stuff all morning.  I need to know if I have to go get bread.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Out to 18hours on the GFS and she is further south than the previous run.  You could make the argument that she makes landfall on the north side of cuba.  

Pressure is down to 932mb


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 24 hours she is scraping the north shore of Cuba and pressure is down to 925.  

Now in about the same spot as she was on the 6z run.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 30 hours she's just off the shore of Cuba, pressure is down to 919, she's gaining strength in that super warm 88° water and just beating the heck out of the north Cuba shore.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

Keep west Irma


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 36 she is tick further WEST than the 6z run.  Pressure is at 913 and to my eye she looks like she's about to come north / NW...


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 42 she's made the turn North and she's in full Beast Mode, pressure is down to 898, the gradients are so tightly stacked I have to think she's back at CAT 5 status as she eyeballs the Keys...

EDIT: Now she is no further West than she was at 6z


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Keep west Irma



Be careful what you ask for. Too far west and she will be all of our worst nightmares.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> At 42 she's made the turn North and she's in full Beast Mode, pressure is down to 898, the gradients are so tightly stacked I have to think she's back at CAT 5 status as she eyeballs the Keys...
> 
> EDIT: Now she is no further West than she was at 6z



I just saw that pop up. I think I poopied in my pants a little bit when I saw that 898mb...


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At hour 48 she is on top of the keys, pressure is up to 903 but she's just hammering.  Just saw on twitter Ryan Maeu believes sustained at this point around 165 and gusting to 190+


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 54 she is on the WEST coast of Florida, Fort Myers is getting hammered, pressure is at 912 and the eye is close to land fall...

EDIT:  It is further west than the 6z run at this point.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 60 hours she is on land, just SW of Okechobee and hammering south Florida.  The devastation will be shocking.  100+ MPH winds are hitting the West Coast and the East Coast at the same time... unreal.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 66 she is in the heart, dead middle of Florida, pressure is up to 940, The East side of Florida, the Cape, Daytona... just getting throttled.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Picture of 66


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 72 Irma has decided that she will take I-75 up to Georgia.  Pressure is at 953 and Hurricane force winds are pounding Valdosta.  However the center is still in Gainesville.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 78 the center of Irma is over Valdosta, pressure is at 966, Rain is over Atlanta, all of South Carolina, there are probably bands of severe storms North and East of the eye...


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 84 she is South of Macon, over Fitzgerald, pumping winds and rain, spinning everything counter clockwise...


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 90 she is over Macon, still dumping rain and wind, pressure is up to 985, sustained winds are probably 35-40 with gust to 65+

EDIT:  At this point she is slightly EAST of the 6z run.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> At 84 she is South of Macon, over Fitzgerald, pumping winds and rain, spinning everything counter clockwise...



Don't forget the MB pressures. At ATL 985 mb, still a low end Cat1 hurricane.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

At 96 she's had enough.  She's up around Canton and the land mass has won out... but not before she went 900 miles and ruined lives, took lives, took material things....  

My goodness.  This will be one for the ages.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't forget the MB pressures. At ATL 985 mb, still a low end Cat1 hurricane.



Yep.  I was typing fast, the panels were coming quick.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Still curious to see where the Euro falls on the 12z run.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still curious to see where the Euro falls on the 12z run.



For sure...


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't forget the MB pressures. At ATL 985 mb, still a low end Cat1 hurricane.



Purely based on pressure, but I thought the true characteristics of a hurricane were measured in pressure AND wind. Not either or.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Purely based on pressure, but I thought the true characteristics of a hurricane were measured in pressure AND wind. Not either or.



One begets the other and they are relative, but dropsondes are used for verification on flythroughs for both. 

As a rule of thumb 987mb gets you 75mph. 

None of this is set in stone, as these are merely model run projections. They can vary widely, and will until ground truth is provided by spotters during the event.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

Augusta is on the east side.. I hope it pushes through fast.


----------



## lbzdually (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> I am trying to get my mind around it.  Best thing I can compare it to is this...
> 
> If you were here for the blizzard, do you remember the winds blowing then?  Those were 40-50 MPH sustained with gust to 65.  Trees and limbs went down like mad.
> 
> They are talking about gust from 75-90+



I flipped through the channels earlier and just happened upon CNN talking about Irma.  They have echoed what you and MC said about Atlanta.  It just makes me very sad.  Many people needing medical equipment just to stay alive, including my father, might not make it.  He is on oxygen at all times.  I have a Honda 2000 watt generator he can use if power goes out, but so many do not have backup power at all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Augusta is on the east side.. I hope it pushes through fast.



Well, in this model run Irma enters Ga at hour 72 and exits hour 96. That's a solid 24 hours of her methodically trampling our state on her way through.


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

Local weather in Augusta at noon; sounds like not that big of a deal. 30-50mph wind and 4-6" of rain, chance for isolated nadrs.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

lbzdually said:


> I flipped through the channels earlier and just happened upon CNN talking about Irma.  They have echoed what you and MC said about Atlanta.  It just makes me very sad.  Many people needing medical equipment just to stay alive, including my father, might not make it.  He is on oxygen at all times.  I have a Honda 2000 watt generator he can use if power goes out, but so many do not have backup power at all.



On this run of the GFS I would say Atlanta was spared.  However it is just one run and everyone needs to prepare for the worst and pray for the best.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Head East said:


> Local weather in Augusta at noon; sounds like not that big of a deal. 30-50mph wind and 4-6" of rain, chance for isolated nadrs.



You might change your mind about that when it gets here. 


Hey DDD you still a member at WxBell? you will get the Euro an hour and a half sooner than I will if you are.


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

I am ready.  I was just somewhat surprised by the weather forecaster.  Sounded like just another summer storm.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You might change your mind about that when it gets here.
> 
> 
> Hey DDD you still a member at WxBell? you will get the Euro an hour and a half sooner than I will if you are.



Nope.  It's not winter wx season...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Head East said:


> I am ready.  I was just somewhat surprised by the weather forecaster.  Sounded like just another summer storm.



I've heard a few of those reports over the last couple of days. Will be interesting to see what Irma does for their job security.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Nope.  It's not winter wx season...



Have to wait on Maue to post it then. Starts running in 10 minutes.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have to wait on Maue to post it then. Starts running in 10 minutes.



Go look what he tweeted 9 minutes ago.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Go look what he tweeted 9 minutes ago.



Yeah, I was wondering when someone was going to pipe up about that wave.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

My generator is tacked to be here Monday. Just in Time.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 8, 2017)

What does this west shift mean for coastal SEGA?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, I was wondering when someone was going to pipe up about that wave.



Can the rest of us buy a vowel, please?


----------



## havin_fun_huntin (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Can the rest of us buy a vowel, please?



What he said


----------



## keithsto (Sep 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Can the rest of us buy a vowel, please?



Tropical wave coming of the coast of Africa has the potential to turn into hurricane Lee according to medium range models.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Tropical wave coming of the coast of Africa has the potential to turn into hurricane Lee according to medium range models.



Lets deal with Irma and Jose first


----------



## toyota4x4h (Sep 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Tropical wave coming of the coast of Africa has the potential to turn into hurricane Lee according to medium range models.



Oh dear lets hope CNN doesn't want that name changed esp if its heading towards poverty areas..


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 8, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Oh dear lets hope CNN doesn't want that name changed esp if its heading towards poverty areas..



They just called Irma a "nuclear hurricane" on live TV, so it wouldn't surprise me if they sensationalized it like that.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

There is possibly some hope here...

If you noted in my play by play of the GFS, I said, "One could argue that Irma is making landfall in Cuba..."  

Any type of landfall, all be it bad for Cuba, would help to take Irma down in strength.  She is due to turn north but nothing says she will.

Allan Huffman put that out on twitter just a few minutes ago with the satellite loop and it's worth noting.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> There is possibly some hope here...
> 
> If you noted in my play by play of the GFS, I said, "One could argue that Irma is making landfall in Cuba..."
> 
> ...



I'm curious as to how her land interaction with Cuba plays on when she decides to turn, if it plays on it at all.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

I do not have access to the EURO models but I can tell you it's further West.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Not a lot further west, but west, landfall would be just south of Naples, Florida.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

She's coming in the back door so to speak.  24 hours ago we thought Miami... now it looks like Ft. Meyers.

This is the EURO.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

And boom goes the dynamite


----------



## 91xjgawes (Sep 8, 2017)

Wow...


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

wait...what???  My local forecaster is rong??

Is this 90 MPH winds in Auguster?

That's more than BOOM


----------



## Greene728 (Sep 8, 2017)

Peachy!


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

Oh my


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 8, 2017)

If any of my GON brothers find themselves heading NW, I will help out in any way I can. I am fortunate that in my corner, it looks like 30-40 mph winds, which is something that we can live with.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Since the Euro / GFS and NAM are rubbing elbows now I feel fairly confident in saying this is a pretty good consensus track. 







The only thing that should change any of these now would be the atmospheric pressure from the high in the Atlantic or the ridge building to our north. 

If the Atlantic high drops below 1012 mb then a curve would be forthcoming. If the northern ridge increased above 1016 mb further south then a forcing to the west at the end of the track may happen. If both pressures changed accordingly then we could definitely see a recurve back out over Fl into the Atlantic for a NC landfall. 

Lot's of ifs and right now none of the models are foreseeing any of that happening. 

Clear as mud?


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

hoe-lee hannah.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 8, 2017)




----------



## Keebs (Sep 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Since the Euro / GFS and NAM are rubbing elbows now I feel fairly confident in saying this is a pretty good consensus track.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do I need a specific camera to catch the eye as it goes over my place??


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 8, 2017)

Keebs said:


> Do I need a specific camera to catch the eye as it goes over my place??





Sure looks like the eye is gonna come real close to us if it follows that track.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

Keebs said:


> Do I need a specific camera to catch the eye as it goes over my place??



Just make sure your pepper jelly recipe is in a safe dry place


----------



## Keebs (Sep 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Sure looks like the eye is gonna come real close to us if it follows that track.


If it skirts like it is showing in that, I swear, it rolls right over my neck of the woods!


----------



## TBI (Sep 8, 2017)

Keebs said:


> Do I need a specific camera to catch the eye as it goes over my place??



No, but don't look at it unless you have special NWS certified sunglasses.


----------



## Keebs (Sep 8, 2017)

TBI said:


> No, but don't look at it unless you have special NWS certified sunglasses.


 knew I was forgettin somethin!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

here's the neat model animation where the storm doesn't move but the land does.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 8, 2017)

Keebs said:


> If it skirts like it is showing in that, I swear, it rolls right over my neck of the woods!





I`ve got a bad feeling about my pole barn. Glad I have it and my boats insured.


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

i was just talking with the misses, nic...my truck goes in the garage.  Her and the daughter get to fight over the other spot.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Take note.


----------



## Head East (Sep 8, 2017)

interesting.  I thought it would extend higher than this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No longer any spread or uncertainty about landfall of Hurricane #Irma ... this is happening for sure, unfortunately. pic.twitter.com/rhyJyFoV7V</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 8, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

Head East said:


> interesting.  I thought it would extend higher than this.



Do Not think that because your county is not in the SoE zone that you are out of the woods. 

If your county lies anywhere east of I-75 you are a potential target.


----------



## 91xjgawes (Sep 8, 2017)

Love the straight line...


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

Cant believe the wifes family has decided to stay.. Right on the intercoastal waters in Miami. Oh well....


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 8, 2017)

What happened to bigOx?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 8, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Cant believe the wifes family has decided to stay.. Right on the intercoastal waters in Miami. Oh well....



Does this mean your Ma n Law is down there?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

Idk I think it's sit to early to call, I'll see what the models say in the morning.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 8, 2017)

I can't decide if I should watch CNN or the weather chunnel to track this monsta.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Sep 8, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> I can't decide if I should watch CNN or the weather chunnel to track this monsta.



Well do you want to watch it blamed on global warming or
do you want to watch movies of past hurricanes?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

I want to watch Jim he sexy


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Sure looks like the eye is gonna come real close to us if it follows that track.



I remember going out in the middle of the eye in the wee hours of the morning during Hugo. The hair on your neck will stand straight up.


----------



## rydert (Sep 8, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> I can't decide if I should watch CNN or the weather chunnel to track this monsta.



with all due respect....I'm going to just watch the locals on this one. They get their info from the NHC...highest winds they predicted here  is 45 with gust to 65.


----------



## Bigtimber (Sep 8, 2017)

I mean no disrespect...but please explain this to this country boy....looks like to me......a dumb county boy....that the first image has wind speeds listed on the map and a color graft beside with a wind scale kinda match.....same with second image kinda looks like to me.

  Is all this to suggest that the winds speeds are not going to decrease any more than that after going pretty much dead center of Florida the entire way? 
      I would have figured, perhaps wrongly,  that winds speeds/strength would have to decrease after crossing that much land.......maybe I'm just reading the entire thing wrong....... I'm just asking....Thanks.


----------



## keithsto (Sep 8, 2017)

Bigtimber said:


> I mean no disrespect...but please explain this to this country boy....looks like to me......a dumb county boy....that the first image has wind speeds listed on the map and a color graft beside with a wind scale kinda match.....same with second image kinda looks like to me.
> 
> Is all this to suggest that the winds speeds are not going to decrease any more than that after going pretty much dead center of Florida the entire way?
> I would have figured, perhaps wrongly,  that winds speeds/strength would have to decrease after crossing that much land.......maybe I'm just reading the entire thing wrong....... I'm just asking....Thanks.



I believe that first map is a sustained wind speed while the second is a wind gust.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 8, 2017)

I got 4 30 packs of bud light bring it on


----------



## Wycliff (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I got 4 30 packs of bud light bring it on



Gotta have your priorities,  calories and water in one can. Smart Fuzzy very smart


----------



## rydert (Sep 8, 2017)

Wycliff said:


> Gotta have your priorities,  calories and water in one can. Smart Fuzzy very smart



X's 2....


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 8, 2017)

I'm just hoping after this, I can say "I've got shingles's"!


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Sep 8, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> I'm just hoping after this, I can say "I've got shingles's"!



Neighbor just had a new roof put on yesterday. Might need work on it after Irma.


----------



## Patriot44 (Sep 8, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> I got 4 30 packs of bud light bring it on



Three 24 packers and 3 cases of water. Pantry full of canned sketty and meatballs. 

Not touching the three 24 packers until Monday or the stores run out. 

Pry or a Ties!


----------



## Bob Shaw (Sep 8, 2017)

I have a park model trailer, utility shed and boat in Sebring Florida. It looks like the eye is going to go right over Sebring. Lord knows what I'm going to find when it's all over. Everything is tied down, including the boat, but, with 100+ mph winds... who knows. I can tell you there is a lot of stuff not tied down in that area, a lot of it owned by snowbirds who had no consideration about hurricanes.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Sep 8, 2017)

Awfully quiet. Any updates?  Weather sites have decreased the wind speed quite considerably.


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 8, 2017)

There is going to be massive devastation and destruction over a very wide and significant populated area due to this storms path. Especially if the sustained winds and gusts along with rainfall amounts and tidal surge stay true to the forecasts now. I'm including the effects it may have up to and beyond ATL.

Irma could make the top of the list for most expensive in terms of damage ever. I hope I'm wrong.....


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 8, 2017)

whitetaco02 said:


> Awfully quiet. Any updates?  Weather sites have decreased the wind speed quite considerably.



That's good news! That's good news!


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 8, 2017)

whitetaco02 said:


> Awfully quiet. Any updates?  Weather sites have decreased the wind speed quite considerably.



X2, they are claiming it's going to clip Cuba, which would slow things down, but waiting on the GON gurus myself


----------



## whitetaco02 (Sep 8, 2017)

Still reading it'll strengthen back to a very strong category 4 after Cuba.


----------



## Mexican Squealer (Sep 8, 2017)

Enjoying adult beverages at Lake Oconee.


----------



## doenightmare (Sep 8, 2017)

I hate hurricanes.


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 8, 2017)

whitetaco02 said:


> Still reading it'll strengthen back to a very strong category 4 after Cuba.



It's probably going to turn late and hit Panama city just to show you can't predict them 

My neighbor looked at the cone,  then headed to their Panama City condo today for vacation.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

Been at the Archer / Mill Creek game.  Boys took Creek out 16-13.

I am playing catch up but things have changed and not for the good..

GFS is running, hold please...


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

I am only going to post about where she goes on land and how she affects Georgia according to the GFS. 

The HWRF which the NHC holds in high regard has this thing going farther up the west coast of Florida and going in stronger.  This will only make things worse up stream.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

GFS has her coming on shore around Ft. Meyers as a CAT 5 storm.  (Not a whole lot of change from previous runs)  Lets see if there is any change in the track as she comes north.


----------



## DDD (Sep 8, 2017)

GFS is almost identical to previous runs.  So will it be stronger up stream?  I don't know, but what I do know is this is going to be one for the books.

I am going to lose a lot of sleep between Sunday and Tuesday.  I know that.


----------



## malak05 (Sep 9, 2017)

Interesting enough the slight touching of the Cuba is on-going it's sort directing it and what is touching is over pretty flat land, read on another forum which this goes over my head but sometime land friction can cause eye to contract tighten and actually strength the Hurricane whicheck is believed maybe is happening here over my head some but interesting plus that water in straits is nice and warm to feed on....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Nassau radar site.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/CensoredCensored/nassau/30072/satellite/30072


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Serious nasty convection forming on the NW quandrant of Irma as she approaches the straights. Strengthening will happen fast and it will be a beast once again after this reorganizing.


----------



## georgia357 (Sep 9, 2017)

Your accuweather link says  page not found.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

georgia357 said:


> Your accuweather link says  page not found.



Hmmm, works for me when I click on it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Florida Residents, this map shows the "mandatory" evacuation areas (in red) 

If you choose to stay you are operating solo. If you encounter an emergency during the storm First Responders WILL NOT make any attempt to help you. 

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/


----------



## PopPop (Sep 9, 2017)

When will we get the latest tracking info?


----------



## havin_fun_huntin (Sep 9, 2017)

Hugh, the local Mets are saying a further westerly jog and almost certain hurricane in South  central and SOWEGA.    Is that what the latest models show?


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Sep 9, 2017)

PopPop said:


> When will we get the latest tracking info?



With IRMA making landfall and the eye staying partially over the northern edge of the island they are now speculating a potential double landfall in FL.

As miggy so often says, "it is like nailing jello to a tree."


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 9, 2017)

Well it's about coming to time to see what she's doing I can see her on the forum radar now


----------



## georgia357 (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hmmm, works for me when I click on it.



Works for me now on my computer.  Must have been something to do with my tablet that it didn't like.


----------



## Fletch_W (Sep 9, 2017)

The latest I have seen from 5AM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Got her on my radar now. Reports of 45+mph gusts hitting the beaches with outer bands as far north as Palm Bay.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Check these cams out;

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach2


----------



## hayseed_theology (Sep 9, 2017)

At this point, what kind of wind are we talking in the Albany/Blakely area?

I keep seeing a Cat 3 in central FL and a Tropical Storm in middle GA, but how fast will that degradation happen?  Are we talking Cat 1 or 2 in SOWEGA?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Do you remember Opal? #Irma could have similar wind impacts across a greater area. Excerpt from this morning&#39;s briefing #gawx pic.twitter.com/KenNyutUdh</p>— NWS Atlanta (@NWSAtlanta) September 9, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

I know you guys have a lot of IMBY questions, but at this point it is a wait and see game. Contrary to some Mets downplaying the potential for Irma to still be a "classified hurricane" once it enter's Ga? I'm not backing off of that potential simply based on what Harvey did in Texas, and it was a much much much smaller storm. 

My philosophy is and will always be, acknowledge the worst potential and prepare for it. Be thankful if it never occurs.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="pt" dir="ltr">video/avc pic.twitter.com/xI18A4WwQQ</p>— Hugh (@hree58) September 9, 2017</blockquote>
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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

Hugh and Mark, I`d like to thank you gentlemen for the job ya`ll are doing here. I hope that ya`ll and your families will be safe, as well as everybody in the path of this storm.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh and Mark, I`d like to thank you gentlemen for the job ya`ll are doing here. I hope that ya`ll and your families will be safe, as well as everybody in the path of this storm.


Thank you sir. Hope Irma is not too ugly to my South Ga friends.


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## PopPop (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh and Mark, I`d like to thank you gentlemen for the job ya`ll are doing here. I hope that ya`ll and your families will be safe, as well as everybody in the path of this storm.



Likewise.
Godspeed everyone.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">#Irma still 225 miles south of Miami and already 25,000 people without power in Miami-Dade county. Winds gusting 50+ mph.</p>— Paul Dellegatto️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 9, 2017</blockquote>
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## Greene728 (Sep 9, 2017)

Got lucky and found me a generator yesterday that was a great deal! I've looked at em many times and always found an excuse not to buy it. Not anymore. It's been quite a while since we've endured anything like this and a lot of people (myself included) have become complacent. That and now the weather people will hype stuff up for ratings and marketing ploys that have people to some degree not trusting them anymore. My hope is I don't need it, but if so we are ready as possible!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

I'm pretty sure if you are still in the Keys you are officially a Darwin Award Candidate. Your gene pool is about to be violently reduced to a puddle. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">***NOWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SAFE*** ***EVACUATE NOW***@thefloridakeys Hurricane #Irma Tourism Advisory. #FLwx #KeyWest #FLKeys pic.twitter.com/ADjKlb2SfZ</p>— NWS Key West (@NWSKeyWest) September 9, 2017</blockquote>
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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

It`s nice here right now. 71 with a good breeze. Wish it would stay this pleasant....


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## flynlow (Sep 9, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Got lucky and found me a generator yesterday that was a great deal! I've looked at em many times and always found an excuse not to buy it. Not anymore. It's been quite a while since we've endured anything like this and a lot of people (myself included) have become complacent. That and now the weather people will hype stuff up for ratings and marketing ploys that have people to some degree not trusting them anymore. My hope is I don't need it, but if so we are ready as possible!



I bought one years ago from a friend who lost his job and needed the money. It was still new when I got it, he never used it. At the time, my wife said "why do you need one of those?" I smiled and said just because. We lived in Ocala FL at the time, and when Hurricane Charley came through a couple yrs later, we were without power for 5 days. She was soooo happy we had a generator lol. Of course, I still have that same generator, it has served us very well on several occasions. I exercise it regularly and always keep it on ready status. You just never know. Good luck out there everyone.


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## Keebs (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh and Mark, I`d like to thank you gentlemen for the job ya`ll are doing here. I hope that ya`ll and your families will be safe, as well as everybody in the path of this storm.


Ditto, Ditto, Ditto from here too!
When Jim made mention of Opal, that got J & me in higher gear, we both went through that and it wasn't any fun!  Sure wish I had a generator now, JUST for my freezer's, not even the a/c!
I'll be staying tuned from here on out, hope everyone is prepared and will be able to stay safe!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

I am cracking up laughing at some of the meteorologist whining on Twitter and Facebook. They have now labelled anyone that isn't a degreed meteorologist Hacks, Trolls and Keyboard Meteorologists. They have discounted some of what I have said could happen (not directed at me personally, I hope) and the kicker is, I have seen no less than 5 different "Official" tracks for Irma this morning, from the "Degreed Meteorologist" community, not to mention the Drama or worse now, Anti-Drama from them. 

If they would quit selling their souls for ratings and just report the scientific facts of what the data is telling them folks would trust them a lot more and they wouldn't have to resort to this childish behavior. 

Yes there are some bonafide nutjobs out there forecasting stuff on Social Media that isn't even near possible or plausible, and they deserve to have their chops busted, but the Professionals need to be extremely careful how they classify folks with broad sweeping brush strokes. They can be replaced.  

In fact I know one channel on TV that has employed all Storm Chasers to do their field reporting, instead of primadonna drama casting meteorologists. I even know one chaser that gets paid quite handsomely for videos of up close and personal weather that gets sold to these drama casting networks and msm outlets. 

As we we all know, unintended consequences bite real hard when they come back around to garbage like this propagated by "professionals".


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## Oldstick (Sep 9, 2017)

Beautiful, mild and sunny outside but the pines and my torn up window screens are already doing a right smart of flapping two days in advance.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Tuned up the chain saw yesterday, headed outside to tune up some trees ahead of the real wind. 

Y'all get it together today. Supplies will be non existent on Monday.

Will update things this afternoon or evening.


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## malak05 (Sep 9, 2017)

GFS showing intense Hurricane ramp up as travel thru straits and still westward track high cat 4 maybe even 5 at landfall around Ft. Myers still tropical storm level perhas up thru Lagrange GA so Atl and points N and NE definitely could see Opal level stuff


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## malak05 (Sep 9, 2017)

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband14.html

Good site just update ton animate and run it you can see the expanding red circulation and whiting in it... signs it's already starting to strengthen


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## Oldstick (Sep 9, 2017)

I'm sure many remember the one (might have been more than one that year) that made landfall around the Melbourne FL area and traveled all the way up FL and straight through middle GA.  I think it was around 2004 or 05 or thereabouts.

I stepped outside a couple times in Byron, GA and it was frightening, wind howling like a banshee even that far inland.  I don't think that one was nearly the size of Irma either.

I am for sure moving everything I can away from trees and it seems like a certainty most of us are going to lose power for quite some time.  There's already power outages in south FL.


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## Iwannashoot (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I am cracking up laughing at some of the meteorologist whining on Twitter and Facebook. They have now labelled anyone that isn't a degreed meteorologist Hacks, Trolls and Keyboard Meteorologists. They have discounted some of what I have said could happen (not directed at me personally, I hope) and the kicker is, I have seen no less than 5 different "Official" tracks for Irma this morning, from the "Degreed Meteorologist" community, not to mention the Drama or worse now, Anti-Drama from them.
> 
> If they would quit selling their souls for ratings and just report the scientific facts of what the data is telling them folks would trust them a lot more and they wouldn't have to resort to this childish behavior.
> 
> ...



Best quote of the year considering the current situation.  Just tell me the facts and don't put a slant on it.

This from someone who is about to head to higher ground to hunker down and hope for the best.  We have a plan and think it is sound based on the best information I can gather.  See ya after the blow

Jeff


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## Greene728 (Sep 9, 2017)

Iwannashoot said:


> Best quote of the year considering the current situation.  Just tell me the facts and don't put a slant on it.
> 
> This from someone who is about to head to higher ground to hunker down and hope for the best.  We have a plan and think it is sound based on the best information I can gather.  See ya after the blow
> 
> Jeff



Best of luck!


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## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

I am headed out to a football game that my son is playing in and our RB got injured in practice on Wednesday.  Guess who has to step up and pull his weight today?  So right now I am focused on that.

What I will say is if you remember Opal, increase those winds by 25+ MPH, increase the coverage by 150 miles as the crow flies and that is my high altitude look at things at this moment.

I have already got my supplies together.  Luckily we have underground power here in the hood and all my trees will not reach my house.

More later.  Make your moves today.  Sunday and Monday will be nuts.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

Oldstick said:


> I'm sure many remember the one (might have been more than one that year) that made landfall around the Melbourne FL area and traveled all the way up FL and straight through middle GA.  I think it was around 2004 or 05 or thereabouts.
> 
> I stepped outside a couple times in Byron, GA and it was frightening, wind howling like a banshee even that far inland.  I don't think that one was nearly the size of Irma either.
> 
> I am for sure moving everything I can away from trees and it seems like a certainty most of us are going to lose power for quite some time.  There's already power outages in south FL.





I don`t remember the name of it either, but I think it was 2004. It put a tree across the 230,000 volt line that runs from Albany to Americus, right in the middle of the Muckalee Creek swamp. The winds were still howling and pouring rain when we got the orders to "go fix it". I was climbing the 150 tall lattice tower knowing that I would never be able to ground that line in those winds. It weren`t too bad until I got above the tree tops, and I really thought the wind was gonna rip me off that tower. I finally squirreled around it so the wind was hitting me in the back and I could actually let go and the wind would hold me in place. Luckily about the time I got to the cross arm the wind took the tree off the line. I`ve never been so glad to get back on terra firma in my life.


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## Big un (Sep 9, 2017)

Spent the morning getting things organized and any loose items tied down.  Topped off all the gas tanks and cans, test run on the generator, organized extension cords, even smoking some meat to hold us over through the storm. Very thankful for the work y'all put in to this as it has helped us to plan and be ready. The new generator is very capable of running all the medical equipment that me need for our daughter as well as the window unit.  Y'all be safe and if anyone is near Hazlehurst and needs help I'll be glad to do anything I can.


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## Oldstick (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I don`t remember the name of it either, but I think it was 2004. It put a tree across the 230,000 volt line that runs from Albany to Americus, right in the middle of the Muckalee Creek swamp. The winds were still howling and pouring rain when we got the orders to "go fix it". I was climbing the 150 tall lattice tower knowing that I would never be able to ground that line in those winds. It weren`t too bad until I got above the tree tops, and I really thought the wind was gonna rip me off that tower. I finally squirreled around it so the wind was hitting me in the back and I could actually let go and the wind would hold me in place. Luckily about the time I got to the cross arm the wind took the tree off the line. I`ve never been so glad to get back on terra firma in my life.



Good Gosh!  My hat's off to you, Nic.  I didn't like standing on the front porch, let alone way up a tower.


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## PopPop (Sep 9, 2017)

I have a theory about the local TV mets. They are easing us into this one, trying to get the Floridians thru first. Can you imagine that wave of people stuck on 75 without gas, food and water, in the midst of a Hurricane.
The supply chain can't handle the shock if both locals and refugees hit the stores at the same time.


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## mammajamma (Sep 9, 2017)

11Alive just posted a live video that shows Irma scooting up the west coast of FL, not really making landfall, but just touching.  Then it comes in around Tampa as a Cat 4, then moves up 75, reaching ATL as a Cat 3.  Whoa!  That's so different than the tropical storm I thought we would get.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I don`t remember the name of it either, but I think it was 2004. It put a tree across the 230,000 volt line that runs from Albany to Americus, right in the middle of the Muckalee Creek swamp. The winds were still howling and pouring rain when we got the orders to "go fix it". I was climbing the 150 tall lattice tower knowing that I would never be able to ground that line in those winds. It weren`t too bad until I got above the tree tops, and I really thought the wind was gonna rip me off that tower. I finally squirreled around it so the wind was hitting me in the back and I could actually let go and the wind would hold me in place. Luckily about the time I got to the cross arm the wind took the tree off the line. I`ve never been so glad to get back on terra firma in my life.


I hope GP's policy has changed since then. 


mammajamma said:


> 11Alive just posted a live video that shows Irma scooting up the west coast of FL, not really making landfall, but just touching.  Then it comes in around Tampa as a Cat 4, then moves up 75, reaching ATL as a Cat 3.  Whoa!  That's so different than the tropical storm I thought we would get.



We wouldn't lie to you.


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## ssramage (Sep 9, 2017)

Hmmm...are we seeing a "wobble" in the storm or is it turning early?


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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I hope GP's policy has changed since then.



I hope so too. Some of the weather conditions us old timers had to climb in would make you old before your time.

Right before I went out for my last knee surgery that made me retire, they had stopped us from free climbing. I didn`t really get a chance to try all that new anti-fall gear they had come up with. I still have my old climbing belt, and both my pole hooks and tree hooks.


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## Oldstick (Sep 9, 2017)

mammajamma said:


> 11Alive just posted a live video that shows Irma scooting up the west coast of FL, not really making landfall, but just touching.  Then it comes in around Tampa as a Cat 4, then moves up 75, reaching ATL as a Cat 3.  Whoa!  That's so different than the tropical storm I thought we would get.


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## mammajamma (Sep 9, 2017)

Miggy, what does "we wouldn't lie to you" mean?  Are they stretching the truth??  I mean, I know no one knows exactly what's to come at this point, but it doesn't seem like a Cat 3 in ATL is possible.


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## swamppirate (Sep 9, 2017)

Y'all be careful, safe and good luck...


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## srb (Sep 9, 2017)

Could it stay a Cat 3 that far north,On land that long???


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## blood on the ground (Sep 9, 2017)

What did i miss


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## malak05 (Sep 9, 2017)

The models are definitely set on the West coast and I would say a good shot of eye staying just off land at least half way up Florida Peninsula. Not great news

1. With warmer waters and less over land interaction the storm is and will continue to strength should at least get back to a solid Cat 4 most believe
2. The Track will take it directly to the GA border and exposing everyone in GA to the NE side of storm just like Opal plus models are showing it speeding up thru on panhandle and running north it won't lose as much steam by time it gets up state...less flooding threat alot more wind threat.


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## snookdoctor (Sep 9, 2017)

mammajamma said:


> Miggy, what does "we wouldn't lie to you" mean?  Are they stretching the truth??  I mean, I know no one knows exactly what's to come at this point, but it doesn't seem like a Cat 3 in ATL is possible.



If you want actual forecasts for this, or any tropical storm, go to nhc.noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center), or even weatherunderground.com. Anything on local or national media is usually a ratings contest. Or, just read the posts on here from Miguel and DDD. They are spot on, and don't care about ratings.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

mammajamma said:


> Miggy, what does "we wouldn't lie to you" mean?  Are they stretching the truth??  I mean, I know no one knows exactly what's to come at this point, but it doesn't seem like a Cat 3 in ATL is possible.



I haven't seen anybody forecast that yet. Where did you see it?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

Had a willow oak and three 20+ ft crape myrtles that have about 50% less limbs on them now. Their wind load is drastically reduced. 

Now it's time for a shower and a beverage or three.


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## gobbleinwoods (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Had a willow oak and three 20+ ft crape myrtles that have about 50% less limbs on them now. Their wind load is drastically reduced.
> 
> Now it's time for a shower and a beverage or three.



crepe murder did you?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

gobbleinwoods said:


> crepe murder did you?



Nope, I don't partake in that pagan ritual. Stood almost on top of a 6 ft ladder and was trimming them off from the ground up as high as I could reach. Lifting the canopy, not cutting it back.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

I will say; With the way this high pressure trough is hanging in to our north I wouldn't be shocked to see Irma move up the west coast of Fl. giving Tampa just a kiss and doing a final landfall near Apalachicola Fl. 

This would be pretty bad for the west coast of Fl. and really increase the intensity at the Ga line when she comes in.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 9, 2017)

Mets saying 30 to 40 sustain winds and 60mph gust for the Augusta area.


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## snookdoctor (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I will say; With the way this high pressure trough is hanging in to our north I wouldn't be shocked to see Irma move up the west coast of Fl. giving Tampa just a kiss and doing a final landfall near Apalachicola Fl.
> 
> This would be pretty bad for the west coast of Fl. and really increase the intensity at the Ga line when she comes in.



Welllll, lift my bloomers.

My wifey and I are in Tampa, staying with my daughters.
I was OK with the thing going up the center of the state, but Irma seems drawn to Tampa. Or maybe to me.

I guess "just a kiss" would be OK, long as she doesn't try to get frenchy.

We are in a newer, sturdy house, with impact windows, but I think we will all be hunkered down in an interior closet when this thing starts to crank up.

We can't leave, so this will be one of the scariest rides at Mother Nature's Theme Park.


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## rospaw (Sep 9, 2017)

Trailers and boat trailer...... 
Had a 24' CC on a trailer on flat ground a few years ago when we had some heavy winds from a storm like this that did a 180. Didn't hurt it just pointed the other way. If i did not have it double chocks on one set of tires not sure where it would have went. 
Remember to get your trailers either healed off, scotched real well or hooked up to something.
 Another thing is boat covers. Had one custom trailer-able cover get ripped to shreds due to me not securing it down correctly. Wasn't that bad of a storm but i left the side unhooked  in one spot where i hook the drop cord up for batt charger. 1k custom cover trashed in a night. 

Some other thoughts:
Branches close to the house/building including shrubs
Grill lids/patio furniture 
Park a car towards the road in case a tree covers driveway
Pets
Those little windmills folks have like me. Pull the blade/lock it down.
Well house doors closed and locked/pinned
Wind chimes / bird feeders
ANYTHING with a tarp/cover needs to be checked/tied down.
Sure i'm missing some.....


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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I will say; With the way this high pressure trough is hanging in to our north I wouldn't be shocked to see Irma move up the west coast of Fl. giving Tampa just a kiss and doing a final landfall near Apalachicola Fl.
> 
> This would be pretty bad for the west coast of Fl. and really increase the intensity at the Ga line when she comes in.





I sure hope not. I have some good friends who live in Apalach and Wewa.


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## Oldstick (Sep 9, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> If you want actual forecasts for this, or any tropical storm, go to nhc.noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center), or even weatherunderground.com. Anything on local or national media is usually a ratings contest. Or, just read the posts on here from Miguel and DDD. They are spot on, and don't care about ratings.



True about the ratings, they want you to stay tuned in all day.  But I don't know of any reputable local or national news media that don't report the true NHC updates when they come out.


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## malak05 (Sep 9, 2017)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/213811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Looks like new track has changed the storm to still be Hurricane level in South Georgia instead of Tropical storm from 2PM update


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## Lukikus2 (Sep 9, 2017)

Shuddered up
Best of luck y'all


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## Head East (Sep 9, 2017)

Y'all stay safe


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 9, 2017)

My work site is shut down Monday is a paid day off for me.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

malak05 said:


> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/213811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
> 
> Looks like new track has changed the storm to still be Hurricane level in South Georgia instead of Tropical storm from 2PM update





Dead center over my house, and barn. I`ll have chickens and boats scattered all over the surrounding countryside.


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## Jeff C. (Sep 9, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Shuddered up
> Best of luck y'all



Hang in there Luki.


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## walukabuck (Sep 9, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Shuddered up
> Best of luck y'all



Good luck. Keep your head down. Not looking for ward to this at all


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## Bob Shaw (Sep 9, 2017)

Ok, I have a question: The Weather Channel, among others, are all touting "storm surge". Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't the "storm surge" pushed by the wind? And if the storm is going off the west coast of Florida, wouldn't that mean an off shore wind along the coast, and wouldn't that tend to moderate any storm surge quite a bit? Are they over-playing that a bit?


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## Greene728 (Sep 9, 2017)

Bob Shaw said:


> Ok, I have a question: The Weather Channel, among others, are all touting "storm surge". Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't the "storm surge" pushed by the wind? And if the storm is going off the west coast of Florida, wouldn't that mean an off shore wind along the coast, and wouldn't that tend to moderate any storm surge quite a bit? Are they over-playing that a bit?



The wind is in a counter clockwise motion, so the wind will be blowing it right on shore of the west coast. They are not over playing it at all. And with the strongest winds around the eye and the eye hugging the coast it's a bad situation compounded. 

If I'm wrong on this hopefully someone's will be along to correct me. But that's how I interpret it.


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## Greene728 (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Dead center over my house, and barn. I`ll have chickens and boats scattered all over the surrounding countryside.



Hang tough Nic! Something tells me if anyone can handle it I'd place my bets on you! 

But sure hope you don't have too.


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## Lukikus2 (Sep 9, 2017)

It's still hugging Cuba. Things may change for the better.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Sep 9, 2017)

Bob Shaw said:


> Ok, I have a question: The Weather Channel, among others, are all touting "storm surge". Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't the "storm surge" pushed by the wind? And if the storm is going off the west coast of Florida, wouldn't that mean an off shore wind along the coast, and wouldn't that tend to moderate any storm surge quite a bit? Are they over-playing that a bit?


On the northside of the eye yes the wind will be pushing the water offshore, but the southside of the eye will be pushing the water onshore.........There are more than one side to a storm


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## hayseed_theology (Sep 9, 2017)

hayseed_theology said:


> At this point, what kind of wind are we talking in the Albany/Blakely area?
> 
> I keep seeing a Cat 3 in central FL and a Tropical Storm in middle GA, but how fast will that degradation happen?  Are we talking Cat 1 or 2 in SOWEGA?



WALB gave the update I have been waiting for.  They are predicting it as a strong Cat 1 coming very close to Albany.  80-90 mph gusts in the Albany area on Monday afternoon/evening.


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## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

Irma is about to deepen in pressure and start N-NW.  The organization of the bands, the tight wall spinning around the eye... she's about to get nasty.

I really believe she is headed in around just south of Sarasota and will rake the West Coast of Florida on her way to Nic's house.

I said 2 days ago the S. GA people needed to heed the warning no matter the track and here we are.

I am going to stay up and check out the latest GFS, should have good data in it.  

Remember any wobble down stream, East or West has big meaning up stream.

Sorta like making a long shot on a deer with a bow.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Irma is about to deepen in pressure and start N-NW.  The organization of the bands, the tight wall spinning around the eye... she's about to get nasty.
> 
> I really believe she is headed in around just south of Sarasota and will rake the West Coast of Florida on her way to Nic's house.
> 
> ...






I remember well, Mark.  Thank you again.   

We`re as ready for it as we can be in such disasters.


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## Lukikus2 (Sep 9, 2017)

Can you tell with any certainty how fast it will track up the coast? Same timeline that was predicted before or later?


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## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Can you tell with any certainty how fast it will track up the coast? Same timeline that was predicted before or later?



She will pick up speed headed for Nic's house.  

Looks like it will be in SGA Monday afternoon and moving NW affecting Atlanta Monday night into Tuesday morning.


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## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

The VERY outer bands are north of Miami right now and popping Tornado warnings left and right.

Irma is just off the coast of Cuba.  Where she goes on shore, take a line and draw it out in any direction North and East 200 miles and that is what we are talking about.  

It's impressive.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> On the northside of the eye yes the wind will be pushing the water offshore, but the southside of the eye will be pushing the water onshore.........There are more than one side to a storm



This storm is also 400 + miles wide and the peninsula of Florida is only 160 miles wide. There will be a good wind on the east coast stirring things up as well.


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## joey1919 (Sep 9, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Dead center over my house, and barn. I`ll have chickens and boats scattered all over the surrounding countryside.



Mine too, about 2 hours after it hits you.


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## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> On the northside of the eye yes the wind will be pushing the water offshore, but the southside of the eye will be pushing the water onshore.........There are more than one side to a storm



Y'all get a load of this!!!  The winds have sucked the water out of the Bahamas.

https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585


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## Head East (Sep 9, 2017)

She's a beast. I've read where it is similar to opal, but from my way of thinking, this seems like it is going to be a far greater disaster.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all get a load of this!!!  The winds have sucked the water out of the Bahamas.
> 
> https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585



Saw that. I'm waiting on Snopes to get a hold of it. It smells fishy.


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## Head East (Sep 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all get a load of this!!!  The winds have sucked the water out of the Bahamas.
> 
> https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585



My wife showed me this earlier today.  Unbelievable


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Saw that. I'm waiting on Snopes to get a hold of it. It smells fishy.



We were looking at a place in killdevil hills when this happened during ahurricane there, it looks like the same muddy bottom, where I don't remember the bottom in Bahamas.
Look at Irene Collington harbor video on YouTube ....very similar


----------



## PopPop (Sep 9, 2017)

Nic, post some pictures of the chickens, I am bout 3 hours north of you, may be able to grab some as they go by. Between gust they should only going about 35 mph.


----------



## GoldDot40 (Sep 9, 2017)

Phone just pinged. Tropical storm watch for my location. Never thought I'd see that.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Saw that. I'm waiting on Snopes to get a hold of it. It smells fishy.



You would think that with the islands sitting in a pretty big pond, there would be plenty of water to fill that void.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)

GoldDot40 said:


> Phone just pinged. Tropical storm watch for my location. Never thought I'd see that.


When's the last time you saw Hurricane Warnings on Inland South West Georgia?


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Sep 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all get a load of this!!!  The winds have sucked the water out of the Bahamas.
> 
> https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585



I saw that on FB....Actually it was a video with people walking around out there, but it was the same Dock


----------



## GoldDot40 (Sep 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> When's the last time you saw Hurricane Warnings on Inland South West Georgia?



Been a bizarre season for everybody in the South for sure.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 9, 2017)




----------



## DDD (Sep 9, 2017)

GFS is really unchanged in it's track.  Nic is the bullseye for Georgia.  Nic and all my GON folks stay safe.  

Just for reference, this time tomorrow night she should be just West of Lake Okeechobee.


----------



## DDD (Sep 10, 2017)

The NAM is interesting.  It takes Irma on shore around the same place the GFS does, passes over Tampa, slips back out into the Gulf, comes back on land around just north of Steinhatchee, FL and goes over Blakely, GA.


----------



## nickel back (Sep 10, 2017)

Great, this track puts me on the east side of the darn thing, looks as if the eye is going to be about one county over....


----------



## malak05 (Sep 10, 2017)

Well working late shifts at least allows me to see the newest info...Irma is back to a Cat. 4 hurricane the core is healthy and probably gonna get stronger if the Euro path plays out then if you see the wind field into GA we are gonna get hit pretty dang hard


----------



## mguthrie (Sep 10, 2017)

Tropical storm warning for metro Atlanta now


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

Where are yall getting this info because it doesn't line up with my forecast for Dawsonville?  NOAA says 30 mph gusts max and rain.  Doesn't line up... also the track has shifted significantly to the west when it reaches Ga and it looks like SW Ga will be in the path then Alabama.  

Looks like the majority of Ga is out of severe danger.  What am I missing?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Pretty good consensus among these models


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Has everyone enjoyed the Nor'easter the last day or so? Guess what, it's still here this morning, stronger and dryer than yesterday. It was suppose to be gone by now, but my barometer is at 30.13 hg and rising. 

I'm not always the sharpest weather tool in the shed, but I know one thing that is for certain. Dry, cold high pressure air is the death nail to a hurricane. We have watched dry air influx many times shred a cane apart. 

This morning I've looked at wind maps, barometric pressure models, ect. ect. ect. and I cannot for the life of me find any justification for these model forecast we are displaying with this high pressure / ultra dry air in place.

Hurricanes do NOT push high pressure systems out of the way. They go around them or succumb to their forces and die. I need somebody that is smarter than me to explain how these models can justify their solutions given a high and dry system to the north of Irma that for all practical purposes should begin to shred her apart the further north she moves. 

I am truly at a loss for why the logical solution isn't playing out given the information I am seeing on the maps this morning.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

This is what it must feel like to be looking down the barrel of a cannon. The air and atmosphere outside even feels weird. I`ll be glad when all this is over and done with. 

Ain`t but a couple of folks that live around here, and we all know each other and are as ready as is possible. Hope my house is strong and well built.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Has everyone enjoyed the Nor'easter the last day or so? Guess what, it's still here this morning, stronger and dryer than yesterday. It was suppose to be gone by now, but my barometer is at 30.13 hg and rising.
> 
> I'm not always the sharpest weather tool in the shed, but I know one thing that is for certain. Dry, cold high pressure air is the death nail to a hurricane. We have watched dry air influx many times shred a cane apart.
> 
> ...



Mig, if you were Irma, what would you do? Where would you go?


----------



## bml (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Has everyone enjoyed the Nor'easter the last day or so? Guess what, it's still here this morning, stronger and dryer than yesterday. It was suppose to be gone by now, but my barometer is at 30.13 hg and rising.
> 
> I'm not always the sharpest weather tool in the shed, but I know one thing that is for certain. Dry, cold high pressure air is the death nail to a hurricane. We have watched dry air influx many times shred a cane apart.
> 
> ...



Lots of folks on their knees?


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 10, 2017)

Nic keep safe down there I'm headed into work it's cold and rainy here in blitchton


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> This is what it must feel like to be looking down the barrel of a cannon. The air and atmosphere outside even feels weird. I`ll be glad when all this is over and done with.
> 
> Ain`t but a couple of folks that live around here, and we all know each other and are as ready as is possible. Hope my house is strong and well built.


What's the air mass like down there this morning Nic? Is it still cool dry air out of the NE?


snookdoctor said:


> Mig, if you were Irma, what would you do? Where would you go?


Don't know how to answer that. I do know she is ragged after Cuba and is swimming upstream now against more hostile conditions. I have to question the models given what I am seeing this morning. 


bml said:


> Lots of folks on their knees?


Yep, I have a good number of friends down in SOWEGA I'm prayin for, and I'm hoping what I'm seeing this morning is God showing that he's smarter than any bunch of computers and has this under control. 

I guess time will tell.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Here's a visual illustration of what I'm seeing that doesn't make sense or display an environment of health for Irma downstream (to her north)


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Sep 10, 2017)

humidity here is 75% this morning


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Another obstacle I see is this. Ocean depth. 

Though the water up the west coast of Florida is 5 degrees warmer, and on the surface would seem conducive to strengthening, the water Irma has followed up til crossing the Florida Peninsula Straights have been over 200 meters deep. The waters up the west coast of Florida where she is traveling now are only just over 20 meters deep. 

The model math just does not add up in my tiny little pea brain. Dry air on her North and West + Shallow Water + Land on her East Side = ????

It equals not getting stronger in my mind, and in fact deteriorating, but what the heck do I know. I'm a life long Bama fan and a Certified Storm Spotter. I don't chase spinny things this big.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

gobbleinwoods said:


> humidity here is 75% this morning



That is surface humidity. It is always high in the morning. You Have to look at the barometric pressure to get a true indicator of the overall humidity / dew point averages.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Move your cursor over the bathymetric reading you wish to get (ocean depth) it will be displayed in meters in the little gray window in the bottom left of the map. 

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What's the air mass like down there this morning Nic? Is it still cool dry air out of the NE?
> 
> Don't know how to answer that. I do know she is ragged after Cuba and is swimming upstream now against more hostile conditions. I have to question the models given what I am seeing this morning.
> 
> ...





It was really dry, cool, cloudy and a pretty good wind out of the northeast, but in the last 15 minutes or so there`s a real light rain with the wind.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> It was really dry, cool, cloudy and a pretty good wind out of the northeast, but in the last 15 minutes or so there`s a real light rain with the wind.



Yeah, that's undercutting the upper level high pressure. It is coming in from the ESE. I saw it on the radar this morning.


----------



## Bob Shaw (Sep 10, 2017)

Bob Shaw said:


> Ok, I have a question: The Weather Channel, among others, are all touting "storm surge". Correct me if I'm wrong, but, isn't the "storm surge" pushed by the wind? And if the storm is going off the west coast of Florida, wouldn't that mean an off shore wind along the coast, and wouldn't that tend to moderate any storm surge quite a bit? Are they over-playing that a bit?



It's interesting, that the Weather Channel came on to explain themselves right after I posted my question. And, yes they are overplaying it to err on the side of caution, just in case it gets that bad, if the track varies a little. And for those of you who posted, I realize about the back side of the hurricane, but having lived in Florida for over 20 years, the largest storm surge, as what happened in Sandy is pushed-out ahead of the hurricane. There most probably will be storm surge, but, not sure if it will be as bad as if it was on the northeast side of the hurricane. But, since the storm is mostly staying a little off shore, it's moot, they're going to get clobbered, especially Naples.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Somebody tell those fools on the Weather Channel that ain`t impressing one soul with their stupid theatrics by standing out in that storm. 


If I see Cantori around here I`m gonna throw him in a gator hole.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Somebody tell those fools on the Weather Channel that ain`t impressing one soul with their stupid theatrics by standing out in that storm.
> 
> 
> If I see Cantori around here I`m gonna throw him in a gator hole.



I'll throw a party if you do. I can't stand that drama queen. I keep waiting on a stop sign to break free and decapitate his stupid donkey. 

I've met him, he's a short little arrogant cuss that thinks highly of himself. Got no use for folks like that.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll throw a party if you do. I can't stand that drama queen. I keep waiting on a stop sign to break free and decapitate his stupid donkey.
> 
> I've met him, he's a short little arrogant cuss that thinks highly of himself. Got no use for folks like that.



I'd love to see a couple out on a nice hurricane stroll walk behind him while he's out there, bracing against the wind. Or another bicycle dude.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Purty good rain here now. 70 degrees, barometer says 30.01.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Purty good rain here now. 70 degrees, barometer says 30.01.



Keep us updated on that barometer Nic. That will be the key to this whole mess.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Keep us updated on that barometer Nic. That will be the key to this whole mess.





29.98 now.  52 % humidity.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> 29.98 now.  52 % humidity.


That is 1015.24 mb of pressure. Still well above the 1012 that was pushing Irma west.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

If possible, I will try to do a "live from the tree" report from Tampa. Hopefully, I won't literally be in a tree, but safely in an intact house. 

If the eye passes us, the TV folks strongly say not to go outside.........right, fat chance of that. I'm going to stand in the eye, even if it's for a few seconds. Not a 6 pack and a lawn chair, sittin on the roof type deal, but if it seems safe, ima gonna try it.

Right now, light winds and low gusts. Misty h2o film on the winders. Dogs are sensing the changes, and are showing some signs of stress....they will most likely be basket cases this evening/overnight.

The local forecast is for hurricane force winds to arrive in this area around 7pm.

It's going to be a wild ride. I'm rooting for Mig's intuition to play out, and see this storm loose some of it's punch.
I'm not looking forward to riding this out, but there was no way I was going to leave my baby girls to take the ride alone. They are both adults, but, they ARE still my little girls.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 10, 2017)

DDD said:


> Y'all get a load of this!!!  The winds have sucked the water out of the Bahamas.
> 
> https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585



Wow!


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Another obstacle I see is this. Ocean depth.
> 
> Though the water up the west coast of Florida is 5 degrees warmer, and on the surface would seem conducive to strengthening, the water Irma has followed up til crossing the Florida Peninsula Straights have been over 200 meters deep. The waters up the west coast of Florida where she is traveling now are only just over 20 meters deep.
> 
> ...



They have dropped our wind speed estmates down by 25 mph. Thank God. I just hope they are right.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> If possible, I will try to do a "live from the tree" report from Tampa. Hopefully, I won't literally be in a tree, but safely in an intact house.
> 
> If the eye passes us, the TV folks strongly say not to go outside.........right, fat chance of that. I'm going to stand in the eye, even if it's for a few seconds. Not a 6 pack and a lawn chair, sittin on the roof type deal, but if it seems safe, ima gonna try it.
> 
> ...


I've heard it is quite the experience, but if I am right, there may not be an eye for you to get out in over another 6 to 8 hours.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Barometer keeps fluctuating between 29.98 and 30.03. Decent rain right now with no wind.


----------



## Big7 (Sep 10, 2017)

*First in History. Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Atlanta!*

First in History. Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Atlanta!

Just saw this on FNC.

I could not ever remember one but now
it's confirmed.

Recon we will get some wind and rain. Then............

Tornadoes.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've heard it is quite the experience, but if I am right, there may not be an eye for you to get out in over another 6 to 8 hours.



I hope you are right. That would be best for us, and the other folks in the path. You wouldn't believe how many people have decided to ride this out, and won't leave their house. Lots of elderly folks, in 70+ year old houses that look like they have had little maintenance over the years, that did no storm prep. They may have no place to go, or just be "ready to go". I'll have a bunch of houses to check on tomorrow.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Sep 10, 2017)

Big7 there was a tropical storm warning in 95 when Opal hit I believe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> Big7 there was a tropical storm warning in 95 when Opal hit I believe.



Negative, there  were high wind warnings but not a Tropical Storm warning for inland Ga.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> I hope you are right. That would be best for us, and the other folks in the path. You wouldn't believe how many people have decided to ride this out, and won't leave their house. Lots of elderly folks, in 70+ year old houses that look like they have had little maintenance over the years, that did no storm prep. They may have no place to go, or just be "ready to go". I'll have a bunch of houses to check on tomorrow.



Prayers for y'all and those folks that couldn't evac, for whatever reason. Like I said, God is bigger than The Weather Channel and I'm pretty confident he's got this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

For those of you in Irma's path that chose to stay and want to protect your property from looters. Here's your looter stand setup.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For those of you in Irma's path that chose to stay and want to protect your property from looters. Here's your looter stand setup.



Doping the winds is going to be problematic.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Rain just stopped at 8/10ths of an inch, and it is dead still here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Just saw a video of a reporter in the eye wall holding an anemometer trying to read top wind speeds. What an idiot. 

One day were are going to be entertained by seeing one of these morons get what they deserve.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Sep 10, 2017)

What is northeast Georgia looking like now?  I know wind and rain but am more concerned about a High risk of tornadoes?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

PopPop said:


> Doping the winds is going to be problematic.





Nicodemus said:


> Rain just stopped at 8/10ths of an inch, and it is dead still here.


The moisture is much appreciated I'm sure, but if I am wrong and the models are right that wet soft ground is not going to be an asset.


deerslayer357 said:


> What is northeast Georgia looking like now?  I know wind and rain but am more concerned about a High risk of tornadoes?


I would stick with earlier forecast, wind maps and models if I were you. 

I'm no longer the person to ask, I have lost confidence in this model consensus based on other data available.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 10, 2017)

Possibility of tornadoes concerns me.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Sep 10, 2017)

that is a fine safety line in pop pop's pic


----------



## deerslayer357 (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> :bounce
> I would stick with earlier forecast, wind maps and models if I were you.
> 
> I'm no longer the person to ask, I have lost confidence in this model consensus based on other data available.



Thank you sir.  I wouldn't have asked if I didn't have confidence in you and the service you and DDD do for us here at GON.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 10, 2017)

Whats new up in here


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Negative, there  were high wind warnings but not a Tropical Storm warning for inland Ga.



Thanks for the clarification Hugh.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

gobbleinwoods said:


> that is a fine safety line in pop pop's pic





It`s only 240 volts, phase to phase.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 10, 2017)

Wish i could post the videos my wifes family is sending from south Florida. They said they lost power around 2am this morning. Now the generator has quit working..


----------



## PopPop (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> It`s only 240 volts, phase to phase.



I did not notice that. Darwin is ready to do his thang.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Check Paul Dellegatto's facebook page.

Video of a fairly shallow area of Tampa Bay where the water has been sucked out hundreds of yards offshore by the (30kt) winds. 

Maybe that Bahamas pic was fo real.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Check Paul Dellegatto's facebook page.
> 
> Video of a fairly shallow area of Tampa Bay where the water has been sucked out hundreds of yards offshore by the (30kt) winds.
> 
> Maybe that Bahamas pic was fo real.





I would sure love to be able to do some artifact hunting in that bay while it`s like that. There are some incredible points and artifacts in there.


----------



## Keebs (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I would sure love to be able to do some artifact hunting in that bay while it`s like that. There are some incredible points and artifacts in there.


 I'd go with you!!  Headed to my office to get some ice for the coolers, check in with ya'll later!


----------



## elfiii (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Mig, if you were Irma, what would you do? Where would you go?



I vote she goes to North Korea.


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

It's looking nasty in Miami with flooding.  They lost two police officers earlier today due to a car crash.  I pray everyone stays safe.


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

Naples is next inline. Live broadcasting now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 10, 2017)

I know it's early to ask, but will Jose and Katia pose any threat behind Irma?


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 10, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> They have dropped our wind speed estmates down by 25 mph. Thank God. I just hope they are right.





Back up again. 89 sustained for 6 hours or so. Beginning at 2 am. Guess I had better get a nap. Best wishes folks.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Swamphunter is in the thick of the storm right now, down in Naples. Hunker down dude.

The center is 150mi south of Tampa. We are just getting breezy here, with 30+ gusts. Very little rain so far.
All that should change in the next few hours, but the local mets have pointed out a few things that may cause this beast to weaken sooner than expected. Irma is still going north, for several hours now. Forward speed has increased to 12mph. Some sheer is or will be degrading the system to some degree, along with the storm losing it's energy after it moves over land.

Hopefully, Irma will be no more than a TS as it gets to Georgia, with just a little needed rain.

I hope they are right.


----------



## Head East (Sep 10, 2017)

Gracious, y'all stay safe


----------



## Bob Shaw (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Negative, there  were high wind warnings but not a Tropical Storm warning for inland Ga.



But, we did get hurricane force winds though. I was having my house built, and decided to ride it out in my 5th wheel trailer near Palmetto. When I got up in the morning, and saw all the damage, It was painfully obvious that staying in the trailer was not a good idea.

Oh, and I've been in the eye a couple of times, and it is weird. Just don't go too far from shelter, While you do get a couple of minutes warning that the wind is picking-up again, it does come pretty quickly.


----------



## maker4life (Sep 10, 2017)

The Wakula River at St. Marks has drained. Crazy!


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

They've closed school for 15-20 mph wind and 3/4 " of rain tomorrow.  There's not a water bottle to be found in Dawson county and the shelves are literally bare.  This is the most sensationalized thing I've ever seen in my life.  I'm at ingles now, it normally has 6-7 cars in the lot.  The lot is full on a Sunday evening.


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 10, 2017)

Just spoke to a guy in warner Robbins who is glad it is going to miss him 

There are still millions who think if your outside the cone you have nothing to worry about. 

It seems the weather channels haven't delivered what that cone is effectively


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

sinclair1 said:


> Just spoke to a guy in warner Robbins who is glad it is going to miss him
> 
> There are still millions who think if your outside the cone you have nothing to worry about.
> 
> It seems the weather channels haven't delivered what that cone is effectively



I'm outside the cone noAa says 20mph.  Good thing we closed school


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 10, 2017)

All that water has to end up some where.


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 10, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> I'm outside the cone noAa says 20mph.  Good thing we closed school



I am too, but I am in woodstock below you and don't expect it to be very bad, but warner Robbins is going to get some wind. 
It hasn't been panicky here, still have gas and supplies at the grocery stores .

as for school, I have no idea, but maybe that it's coming in while they would be at the bus stop has something to do with it

I would rather be in Miami with a 100mph than in Hancock in 40mph. Some places are flat dangerous due to how many weak trees survive until that one big storm, then it's like dominos.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

Around here right now it`s like the calm before the storm. Cloudy and dead still. 66 degrees, barometer 29.96


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 10, 2017)

It's  hard to judge a man getting jerry cans of gas, you never know. 
I stocked up because I have a elderly mom on oxygen machines and expensive salt water fish and both may need the generator for days. 

I camp primitive for weeks, the gas isn't for me, it's for family and friends ....and fish.

Do I care if I look like a fool.....nope


----------



## lagrangedave (Sep 10, 2017)

School bus might flip with 23 mph winds..................may be true or not Bon Jour...................


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 10, 2017)

Just in case, zip ties are a mans best friend. I zipped the garbage cans, grills, chairs and anything that will blow away


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

sinclair1 said:


> I am too, but I am in woodstock below you and don't expect it to be very bad, but warner Robbins is going to get some wind.
> It hasn't been panicky here, still have gas and supplies at the grocery stores .
> 
> as for school, I have no idea, but maybe that it's coming in while they would be at the bus stop has something to do with it
> ...



They are being safe, they have a certain amount of days built in for these types of things.  I'm glad it's not coming directly through here.  The folks in SW Ga are going to need some help.  Macon too.


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 10, 2017)

Weather channel dude just hit clocked in the head. They had to cut away


----------



## Oldstick (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Around here right now it`s like the calm before the storm. Cloudy and dead still. 66 degrees, barometer 29.96



Yep, calm cool and overcast here in Perry too.  The first few drops of rain fell about an hour ago.

"This might mean big storm come, Kemosobe..."


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Just saw video on local TV of 2 manatees that were stranded high and dry on a mud flat after the water was blown off the flat.

Silly people that were walking around out in the storm managed to roll the blubbery beasts to water deep enough for them to swim off

Also local video of long fishing piers and boat channel markers that are totally high and dry.

I hope the crazy folks out there realize that the water will come back in, and may cover those piers and markers as the storm passes.

This was all done by winds under 50mph.


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Just saw video on local TV of 2 manatees that were stranded high and dry on a mud flat after the water was blown off the flat.
> 
> Silly people that were walking around out in the storm managed to roll the blubbery beasts to water deep enough for them to swim off



I award them all 10 karma points.


----------



## nickel back (Sep 10, 2017)

...heck no one has a good idea where it's going. My work has shut down for Monday and Tuesday,seems as this so called storm is pulling a head fake on most weather folks. They just keep changing their tune to fit the story that has been told


----------



## PopPop (Sep 10, 2017)

Here, walmarks, Publix and Kroger are swarmed, gas pumps are jammed.
We're making cookies.


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 10, 2017)

I'm going to change a tire woo


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Sep 10, 2017)

PopPop said:


> Here, walmarks, Publix and Kroger are swarmed, gas pumps are jammed.
> We're making cookies.



Here too. You can spot em in a heart beat. No gas at several stations we went to. Like Sinclair, got everything tied down. Wish the neighbors would do the same.


----------



## Big un (Sep 10, 2017)

Been a slow rain since about 11 this morning. Wind is starting to blow a little more now here in hazlehurst.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 10, 2017)

We, spent some time cooking frozen venison, making easy to heat meals, chili, spaghetti and 10# of Jerky.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 10, 2017)

Can goods and what nots ready to eat.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 10, 2017)

nickel back said:


> ...heck no one has a good idea where it's going. My work has shut down for Monday and Tuesday,seems as this so called storm is pulling a head fake on most weather folks. They just keep changing their tune to fit the story that has been told



That's the truth. Two days ago they were saying they were 90% sure that the west coast was out of play.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 10, 2017)

Cantore ditched his vest and helmet. It's over.


----------



## frisbeefan (Sep 10, 2017)

PopPop said:


> Cantore ditched his vest and helmet. It's over.



Yep.... The Mig and DDD done ducked out too


----------



## jbird1 (Sep 10, 2017)

A bit like Capone's vault but hey, it's the weather so....


----------



## Keebs (Sep 10, 2017)

Barely any gas in Fitzgerald and not a canned good to be found, got ice from my office, found some junk food just to have, got all things tethered down and hay in for the horses, critters fed........... set & wait time........... prayers for all in the heavy mix


----------



## havin_fun_huntin (Sep 10, 2017)

Keebs said:


> Barely any gas in Fitzgerald and not a canned good to be found, got ice from my office, found some junk food just to have, got all things tethered down and hay in for the horses, critters fed........... set & wait time........... prayers for all in the heavy mix



We stopped and got gas last night at Wal-Mart in fitgerald.  W asnt even a line.


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 10, 2017)

It's pretty calm here


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Live from the house.
Center of the storm is now 100 miles south of me, in Tampa.
Maybe a little over an inch of rain so far today, and wind that started a couple of hours ago is around 30, with some gusts to 40+. Just a windy evening so far.

The heavy stuff is on the doorstep. Looks like it will ramp up pretty quick over the next few hours. Even though the storm has weakened, the local mets are calling for winds of 65-90+ around or after midnight.

Irma is degrading, but it will get to the state line, and cross Georgia as a tropical storm. Don't think because you don't have wind and rain now, you are clear. It will get there. Thankfully in a weakened condition.


----------



## GoldDot40 (Sep 10, 2017)

It's been a little breezy here most of the day. Eerily clam right now....I mean nothing.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Live from the house.
> Center of the storm is now 100 miles south of me, in Tampa.
> Maybe a little over an inch of rain so far today, and wind that started a couple of hours ago is around 30, with some gusts to 40+. Just a windy evening so far.
> 
> ...





Hope ya`ll get through this with no damage.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Thanks, Nic.


----------



## Head East (Sep 10, 2017)

Strap in. Be safe


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 10, 2017)

Mets said some fancy words still calling for 60 mph gust here.


----------



## nickel back (Sep 10, 2017)

Got to love the over reaction.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Live from the house.
> Center of the storm is now 100 miles south of me, in Tampa.



You're in Tampa? Cause the center of the storm dang sure ain't. Irma is struggling mightily to make forward progress with the dry air that has been assaulting her today. She's a fur piece from Tampa still and down to a Cat2. I'll be surprised if she's even still a hurricane by the time, and IF she reaches Tampa.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Oh, and out of all the get ready things I had to pick up the other day, D cell batteries are the one thing I forgot. Best I can tell there isn't one left on a shelf anywhere in Ga right now. 

Checking on Ray-o-vac and Eveready stock tomorrow. It's bound to be a good investment for the future.


----------



## olered (Sep 10, 2017)

nickel back said:


> Got to love the over reaction.....



Yep wife gets mad at me for pointing this out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

nickel back said:


> Got to love the over reaction.....



It is all about the ratings. If they told the truth The Weather Channel would lose Millions overnight.


----------



## rydert (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It is all about the ratings. If they told the truth The Weather Channel would lose Millions overnight.



Yep...this is a shame.


----------



## Big un (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're in Tampa? Cause the center of the storm dang sure ain't. Irma is struggling mightily to make forward progress with the dry air that has been assaulting her today. She's a fur piece from Tampa still and down to a Cat2. I'll be surprised if she's even still a hurricane by the time, and IF she reaches Tampa.



Does this slow movement mean an increase in rainfall totals?


----------



## chobrown (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're in Tampa? Cause the center of the storm dang sure ain't. Irma is struggling mightily to make forward progress with the dry air that has been assaulting her today. She's a fur piece from Tampa still and down to a Cat2. I'll be surprised if she's even still a hurricane by the time, and IF she reaches Tampa.



So what's this mean for south/central ga now?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Big un said:


> Does this slow movement mean an increase in rainfall totals?



Where it is right now, yes. It also means, as I suspected, the dry air influx is kicking Irma's butt. She is struggling to maintain right now and is down to a Cat2 and off of the forecast track and wayyyyyy behind schedule for her northward movement. 

The longer she is over land and the longer the dry air gets pumped into her the higher her mortality rate rises.


----------



## Stonewall 2 (Sep 10, 2017)

Haven't watched one weather report on tv since this all started Mig and 3D have been my guidance thru this event. I absolutely love their analysis of the weather not only for there accuracy but I actually learn something. Thanks for all you do guys! I can't stand all the drama weather reporting!


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 10, 2017)

That`s good news to us, Hugh. 

I hope the folks down in South Florida have fared well through this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Stonewall 2 said:


> Haven't watched one weather report on tv since this all started Mig and 3D have been my guidance thru this event. I absolutely love there analysis of the weather not only for there accuracy but I actually learn something. Thanks for all you do guys! I can't stand all the drama weather reporting!



Don't worry. When we have our blizzard this year (three flurries) we're gonna do a TWC  spoof video of DDD in full snowmobile outfit leaning 45° into the harsh wind (slight breeze) and reporting on how incredibly bad the storm is and how deep the snow will be.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> That`s good news to us, Hugh.
> 
> I hope the folks down in South Florida have fared well through this.



Let's just hope my observations from this morning continue to hold. Still lots of dynamics keeping this old hag spinning. 

She's like an ex-wife after child support and alimony. She just won't shut up and go away.


----------



## Stonewall 2 (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't worry. When we have our blizzard this year (three flurries) we're gonna do a TWC  spoof video of DDD in full snowmobile outfit leaning 45° into the harsh wind (slight breeze) and reporting on how incredibly bad the storm is and how deep the snow will be.



I will pay to see that


----------



## bfriendly (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Let's just hope my observations from this morning continue to hold. Still lots of dynamics keeping this old hag spinning.
> 
> She's like an ex-wife after child support and alimony. She just won't shut up and go away.



My Parents are in Bradenton, along with my brother, 4 sisters and all the kids and grandkids(nephews and neices) My first Nephew is a firefighter AKA First responder...............we have been there for 47-48 years

NEVER Having a direct impact can make you stubborn. I tried to get my folks to come up here, but everyone is so stubborn. At least everyone did board up windows this time. Please pray for my family


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

bfriendly said:


> My Parents are in Bradenton, along with my brother, 4 sisters and all the kids and grandkids(nephews and neices) My first Nephew is a firefighter AKA First responder...............we have been there for 47-48 years
> 
> NEVER Having a direct impact can make you stubborn. I tried to get my folks to come up here, but everyone is so stubborn. At least everyone did board up windows this time. Please pray for my family



You got it. Love Bradenton. Great area.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Sep 10, 2017)

She's gotta make a run faster than bo Jackson if she's gonna get from south of Tampa to Atlanta by tomorrow lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> She's gotta make a run faster than bo Jackson if she's gonna get from south of Tampa to Atlanta by tomorrow lol



Yep.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Sep 10, 2017)

When is DDDs winter weather outlook


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> When is DDDs winter weather outlook



Prolly when it's......................winter???

Not even officially Autumn yet....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2017)

Irma finally started lifting off to the north and she's cuttin a rug too. Will be interesting to see how this plays out overnight.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Sep 10, 2017)

Every model has proved to be wrong!


----------



## Trigabby (Sep 10, 2017)

11PM Model took a definite lean west...  Now going 14MPH, so the report says but like MC says, on radar it looks like it's accelerating.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're in Tampa? Cause the center of the storm dang sure ain't. Irma is struggling mightily to make forward progress with the dry air that has been assaulting her today. She's a fur piece from Tampa still and down to a Cat2. I'll be surprised if she's even still a hurricane by the time, and IF she reaches Tampa.



I was in Tampa, the beer told me to type it like it was visa versa.
Center was in Fort Myers at that time.

I may have cracked open a few after she started to weaken over land.


----------



## snookdoctor (Sep 10, 2017)

Last post for the night.

Center of Irma is near Bartow, fl, about 40 miles east of me. Still haven't had winds over 50. I'm not complaining, cause I wasn't in this for the thrill. It's a good thing that Irma played out like she has. It's not over here, but I feel safe hitting the bed. Night.


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 11, 2017)

Mig, you sure that sucker is going west? The porstaf weather staff says she is going to jump east and make all of them wrong


----------



## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Trigabby said:


> 11PM Model took a definite lean west...  Now going 14MPH, so the report says but like MC says, on radar it looks like it's accelerating.



She looks like to me she is moving dead north.  Straight up 75


----------



## sinclair1 (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> She looks like to me she is moving dead north.  Straight up 75



We never had two big hurricanes at the same time, could the data not be calculating the pull from Jose that would straighten it up.


----------



## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

sinclair1 said:


> We never had two big hurricanes at the same time, could the data not be calculating the pull from Jose that would straighten it up.



Obviously anything is possible.  

For sure she has come on shore further EAST than we thought just 6 hours ago.  NHC still thinks she takes a left hand turn and soon.  

There was a very good video that explained the High Pressure over the Atlantic and the other piece of energy that came out of Canada and how Irma got stuck between the two.  The mexican had it on Facebook I think and it was pretty insightful.

What is going to be the most interesting thing to me, is the CAD (The old Tommy Wedge) is going over NE GA.  What affect will this have on Irma?  My initial reaction to that question is the CAD will calm the atmosphere.  However, simulated radar says that it's going to be interesting here tomorrow evening.

I am wondering if the CAD along with counter clockwise motion of the LPS that is Irma, will cause a pressure gradient that makes for high winds.

WSB put out a map that showed the winds higher on the East side of Atlanta and I am wondering if this is what will cause the winds to be so rough tomorrow afternoon / evening.

I drove from Dacula to Gainesville today and we saw 4 downed trees.  All dead, but all in the road either fully or partially.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 11, 2017)

All I have is trees all around me.... Not looking forward to cleaning up a big mess! Irma can swing as wide as she wants to from Paulding.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Sep 11, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> All I have is trees all around me.... Not looking forward to cleaning up a big mess! Irma can swing as wide as she wants to from Paulding.


agreed


----------



## crackerdave (Sep 11, 2017)

I'm hoping for the best and preparing for the worst here in Troup county.
Prayers sent to God that there will be no more loss of life.Tornadoes are my biggest concern.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> All I have is trees all around me.... Not looking forward to cleaning up a big mess! Irma can swing as wide as she wants to from Paulding.



I've got both my chain saws fueled up and ready to go. You need me just holla. I can be cutting my way in while you're cutting your way out and we'll meet somewhere along the driveway.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD hit the nail on the head with pressure gradients. Even though my dry air influx theory has worked to blow up the eye and tight circulation there are still 500mb dynamics at work. 

I'll post some different mb elevation wind maps so you can better understand the conflicting dynamics at work over Jawja.


----------



## bfriendly (Sep 11, 2017)

Good morning all.............I just called my mom, but it is 3:45ish in the AM, so I just told her to leave me a message letting me know if everyone is OK.
 Checked FB and my sister said they never lost power and that was around 3AM. Looking at the radar, Bradenton should not be getting any rain at this moment and with the eye passing, the winds should be changing direction. The empty bay should be filling fast if it hasn't already.........

I pray for everyone in Irma's path


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Got a good rain going on and a fairly hard steady wind.62 degrees and barometer is 29.73. 

There was a light rain and breezy when we went to bed last night around 10 or so, and it looks like it`s rained most of the night.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Tried to load the screenshots from my phone but got the stupid security token missing message.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've got both my chain saws fueled up and ready to go. You need me just holla. I can be cutting my way in while you're cutting your way out and we'll meet somewhere along the driveway.



Thanks brother... Hopefully it won't come to that. Nic how high are the wind gust down that way?


----------



## The black stick of death (Sep 11, 2017)

It's pretty windy here been raining since midnight


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Lets try it this way, then I'll post a link to the windy site and a screen shot of the wind reports screen option on it.
Bottom left is the altitude tab indicating elevation of the wind reading. Starting at "surface" on the first shot up to 500mb on the last. The color code at the very bottom right is the wind speed that correlates with the color on the map at each altitude. The little white lines on the map are the wind directions at altitude. Different altitudes are measured in mb or hpa pressure levels, with each change in direction of wind at each altitude conflicting gradients are formed that cause turbulence.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Sep 11, 2017)

Rain just really starting here in acworth


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Here's the screen shot with the wind speed reports turned on for surface readings. 

The link to find this site and play with the controls yourself is: https://www.windy.com/?32.097,-84.578,8


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Thanks brother... Hopefully it won't come to that. Nic how high are the wind gust down that way?





I`m just gonna guess and say maybe 25 mph? It`s not bad yet. Hopefully it won`t get real bad.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I`m just gonna guess and say maybe 25 mph? It`s not bad yet. Hopefully it won`t get real bad.



Judging by the reported winds and gust on the map there Nic I'd say you are guessing pretty good. Hopefully that old hag won't bring you much worse than that.


----------



## redeli (Sep 11, 2017)

20/25 here with rain heavy at times here


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Judging by the reported winds and gust on the map there Nic I'd say you are guessing pretty good. Hopefully that old hag won't bring you much worse than that.





I haven`t heard anything crash down or break, and soon as it gets light enough to see I`ll try to take a look around and see how much rain I`ve gotten since yesterday morning. It was right at an inch last night.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I haven`t heard anything crash down or break, and soon as it gets light enough to see I`ll try to take a look around and see how much rain I`ve gotten since yesterday morning. It was right at an inch last night.



We are fortunate that Irma didnt do what Harvey did and stall out for days. I seen yesterday that folks are still getting around by boat in parts of Texas.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> We are fortunate that Irma didnt do what Harvey did and stall out for days. I seen yesterday that folks are still getting around by boat in parts of Texas.





For sure. Memories of Alberto.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

I reckon by the time the Old Hag is done in this part of town we'll be done with this thread. May be time to get one more in before DDD takes it over screamin about the white stuff.

On a side note related to that;

The "experts" with all them fancy degrees tell us that an active solar climate (sunspots and such) cause us to have calmer less active weather. 

If you remember back in 09/10 when we had some really active severe and winter weather I was tracking the sunspots and cme's (flares) and we were gettin tore up. That has actually been my observations for as long as I've kept up with sunspots as they relate to earth weather. But I ain't one of the fancy PhD's or nothing so what the heck could I possibly know about the relationship between solar weather and earth weather?

FWIW, the sun is back open for business with the sunspots and solar flares and has been for the last few weeks.
If it keeps this up we could have a fun time watchin DDD do the winter wx forecast.


----------



## Oldstick (Sep 11, 2017)

Hey, the Air Quality is showing "Good" for today.  Thanks Weather Channel..



Getting some 20+ gusts in Perry now and been drizzling since early am.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 11, 2017)

miguel cervantes said:


> i reckon by the time the old hag is done in this part of town we'll be done with this thread. May be time to get one more in before ddd takes it over screamin about the white stuff.
> 
> On a side note related to that;
> 
> ...



bring on winter!


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

I`m hearing of folks around here starting to lose power. Wind getting up a little more.


----------



## Deer Fanatic (Sep 11, 2017)

we still have power here--- right off I75 near Tifton. Been raining all night. Wind isn't aweful


----------



## BeerThirty (Sep 11, 2017)

Light wind and rain here near Newnan, still have power.  I guess it's supposed to start picking up in the next 3-4 hours.  Hope everyone's all right..


----------



## Mexican Squealer (Sep 11, 2017)

power gone in Greensboro


----------



## BriarPatch99 (Sep 11, 2017)

Power off here at 4:17 am wind gusts close to 40 mph steady 25 or so


----------



## Mountainbuck (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Prolly when it's......................winter???
> 
> Not even officially Autumn yet....



No, he use to always post a write up sometime between august- September.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> No, he use to always post a write up sometime between august- September.


I think he may have done one of those a couple of weeks ago, but man finding it might be tough in this thread.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">About to top 6 million customers losing power. #Irma https://t.co/HMNkQKsRp0</p>— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) September 11, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 11, 2017)

Just a breezy steady rain @ AMS-Atlanta Motor Speedway.


----------



## blood on the ground (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I`m hearing of folks around here starting to lose power. Wind getting up a little more.



Wsb said over 100k without power already in SG. More to come im sure.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Wind making the trees do some serious leaning. I bet the plantation across the road wish they had lined up the irrigation system to be in line with the wind rather than against it.


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Wind making the trees do some serious leaning. I bet the plantation across the road wish they had lined up the irrigation system to be in line with the wind rather than against it.



Glad to see you still have power.


----------



## Cook&Bro (Sep 11, 2017)

*Thank-you*



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's the screen shot with the wind speed reports turned on for surface readings.
> 
> The link to find this site and play with the controls yourself is: https://www.windy.com/?32.097,-84.578,8



Thank-you for the link, very useful. And the app is good as well.


----------



## hayseed_theology (Sep 11, 2017)

Getting windy west of Albany.  Moments of heavy rain coming down sideways.  Several folks in town lost power around 4 am.


----------



## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Jeff C. said:


> Glad to see you still have power.





I can`t believe I still do.


----------



## fireman32 (Sep 11, 2017)

A steady wind with occasional gusts, gonna guess 20-30mph.  Off and on light rain.  No power here in S. Dooly. 
Crisp Co. has had a tree or two down, highest wind measured so far is 28mph, somebody drove into one of the downed trees that was across a road.  Minor injuries.
Stay safe folks, hope she calms on down quick.


----------



## ssramage (Sep 11, 2017)

Reports from SSI are coming in now. Looks like some flooding (at low tide) and tons of trees down. Minimal places with power still.

Evacuated to Forsyth so the storm is still to come here. Light rain and gusts to about 40 right now.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 11, 2017)

Light rain and gentle breezes on WP Lake. Not really what we were expecting this morning, PTL.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Nic, looking at the wind map looks like y'all have picked up to 28mph sustained with gusts to 46 mph. That's a dang site better than 75 mph sustained. Hope it doesn't get any worse.


----------



## smokey30725 (Sep 11, 2017)

I'm in downtown Dalton all day. Wondering if there are going to be plant shutdowns in anticipation of any coming weather.


----------



## Wycliff (Sep 11, 2017)

Steady rain and windy with a few gusts in the 30901


----------



## toyota4x4h (Sep 11, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'm in downtown Dalton all day. Wondering if there are going to be plant shutdowns in anticipation of any coming weather.



We got the ok to work from home next two days if needed..im at one of the two big ones in town lol.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

30814 steady rain a few good gust looks like a thunderstorm passed through with debris on the roads.


----------



## PopPop (Sep 11, 2017)

I am frustrated. Our Guys have done a much better job with this storm than the TV clowns. But.
We have decisions to make about work related commutes of over 40 miles, one way. We have spineless managers who will not make the decisions for which they are paid.
Staying home is prudent, erring on the side of caution. It is also a decision that will be harshly criticized if we continue to see this storm fizzle out.
If the TV mets are going to continue this theatrical caution and there is data to support it, State officials should publish a travel restriction. But they won't.


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> We got the ok to work from home next two days if needed..im at one of the two big ones in town lol.



We did too but i came in, I might leave a little early if it gets bad.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 11, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> We did too but i came in, I might leave a little early if it gets bad.



Same here. Looks like a lot of people took their opportunity to stay home because traffic was non-existent this morning. I'm glad to see they did because most of them can't drive in normal rain, let alone rain and tropical storm force winds.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Sep 11, 2017)

My company in Johns Creek, GA is open.  Raining when I arrived at 06:30.  Wind is starting to pick up now. 

Hope everyone stays safe out there.


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Same here. Looks like a lot of people took their opportunity to stay home because traffic was non-existent this morning. I'm glad to see they did because most of them can't drive in normal rain, let alone rain and tropical storm force winds.



Minus the guy at 6am driving 50 in the fast lane on ga 400.  I tried to go around him in the slow lane and he sped up to 80 so I couldn't pass.  I was astonished to know a complete idiot was driving in Atlanta (no not really surprised)


----------



## BriarPatch99 (Sep 11, 2017)

Gusts up to 48 mph here. Steady wind over 30 mph. Trees snapped around the woods near my yard.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Sep 11, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Minus the guy at 6am driving 50 in the fast lane on ga 400.  I tried to go around him in the slow lane and he sped up to 80 so I couldn't pass.  I was astonished to know a complete idiot was driving in Atlanta (no not really surprised)



Sounds about right. I saw a guy make an illegal double yellow pass on my way in because 45 in a 45 wasn't fast enough for him and his jacked up 350 w/ an 18 wheeler air horn. 

Wife just told me that power just went out at our house in Flowery Branch.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Sep 11, 2017)

Lost power at 7 last night. Trees down and debris everywhere but we came out okay. We were pretty much in the eye wall most of the night and it was howling.


----------



## Crakajak (Sep 11, 2017)

Its raining across the entire state of Ga.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Pine cones hitting the tin roof


----------



## maker4life (Sep 11, 2017)

Had a pretty good pine top take out a corner of the house a little while ago. Winds are still 35-40 with higher gusts. Thank God for the weakening or south ga would have been a total disaster.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Seen a vid of pine tree tops poping to the ground from s ga. Good thing they were not flying around.


----------



## georgia357 (Sep 11, 2017)

I would like to say thank you to the posters that put their location when giving the weather where they live, especially if it's not in their header.  Sure does make it easier.


----------



## Jeff C. (Sep 11, 2017)

Gusts are picking up @ AMS- ATL Motor Speedway-Hampton, GA


----------



## lagrangedave (Sep 11, 2017)

What are you doing there Chief? Just raining in Lagrange now...light winds........


----------



## Nitram4891 (Sep 11, 2017)

Interesting that the wind models all show a circle of higher wind kind of centered around Atlanta for us later this afternoon.  Is that related to the wedge?


----------



## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

I'm at work in Sandy springs light rain light wind.  It may get bad later don't know


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Gust picking up in 30814 just heard another transformer blow.


----------



## Head East (Sep 11, 2017)

cool breeze and rain here.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Head East said:


> cool breeze and rain here.



I'll be in Evans of the power goes out. I'll


----------



## BriarPatch99 (Sep 11, 2017)

One large oak down barely missing the dog pen and two dogs ... One large pine ... One large catalpa tree down ..

Thank goodness they didn't hit anything ...


----------



## br6ppc (Sep 11, 2017)

We lost power here in Dodge county, south of Eastman, around 9:30 this morning. We are getting sustained winds in the 25-30 mph range with some gusts higher. This is our worst winds so far. Not a lot of major damage, just a bunch of small limbs and stuff. My neighbor has an old barn that has just about lost its top though.


----------



## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

TWC folks are way over paid.......

Wind and rain here, Upson county, nothing more than what a bad thunderstorm would be  like as for right now


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## Head East (Sep 11, 2017)

We still have power.

Georgia outage map here.

http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html


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## Head East (Sep 11, 2017)

No trash pick up today!  Why would someone think there would be??? Trash flying around everywhere.  SMH


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

Work sent a company wide email told everyone to leave at noon.  Light light light wind and rain here.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Head East said:


> No trash pick up today!  Why would someone think there would be??? Trash flying around everywhere.  SMH



Our trash and recycling both picked up today.


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Nitram4891 said:


> Interesting that the wind models all show a circle of higher wind kind of centered around Atlanta for us later this afternoon.  Is that related to the wedge?



Yes.

The closer that Low gets to Atlanta, the more "squeezed" the gradients will become and that pressure has to go somewhere.

Most people think all this wind is associated with Irma and it is, however that High up over the Atlantic is what is going to "help" (bad word to use) make the winds worse in NE GA this afternoon.

(Or at least that's what I think is the reasoning for the models showing the higher winds on the NE side of town this afternoon)


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> Yes.
> 
> The closer that Low gets to Atlanta, the more "squeezed" the gradients will become and that pressure has to go somewhere.
> 
> ...



Sort of, correct. Warm air associated with Irmageddon and that cool air still being pumped in by the high pressure. (cold air sinks naturally) cold air sinks real fast when colliding with warm gulf / atlantic air. Two dynamic air masses competing for the same space create a gradient war, and the thermodynamics of it all force it to the surface.


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

The Windy website is interesting to me to switch between the NAM, EURO and GFS.  NAM and EURO are pretty much on the same page and the GFS is faster with it's solution.  Right now the GFS looks to be out to lunch on timing.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Lost power at 8:50 and it just came back on. We`re having some mighty mean wind gusts. Enough to make you want to run for cover here in Lee County.


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sort of, correct. Warm air associated with Irmageddon and that cool air still being pumped in by the high pressure. (cold air sinks naturally) cold air sinks real fast when colliding with warm gulf / atlantic air. Two dynamic air masses competing for the same space create a gradient war, and the thermodynamics of it all force it to the surface.



I tried to stay high altitude and you went low altitude.


CRAP!!!! Lights are flickering here!!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> I tried to stay high altitude and you went low altitude.
> 
> 
> CRAP!!!! Lights are flickering here!!!!



You think that is crazy, go to windy.com and look at the different hpa altitude winds, then jump up to 400hpa.


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## mguthrie (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sort of, correct. Warm air associated with Irmageddon and that cool air still being pumped in by the high pressure. (cold air sinks naturally) cold air sinks real fast when colliding with warm gulf / atlantic air. Two dynamic air masses competing for the same space create a gradient war, and the thermodynamics of it all force it to the surface.



I'm guessing that is why it was breezy here yesterday when Irma was in the keys


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You think that is crazy, go to windy.com and look at the different hpa altitude winds, then jump up to 400hpa.



Took the dogs out about 15 minutes ago and they wanted no part of it.  Looked up and could not believe how fast the clouds were moving over head.  Incredible.


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## mguthrie (Sep 11, 2017)

We lost power for a few minutes then it came back on. Now it's flickering as I type this in the 30094


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## keithsto (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> Took the dogs out about 15 minutes ago and they wanted no part of it.  Looked up and could not believe how fast the clouds were moving over head.  Incredible.



Amazing how dogs can be like "gotta pee! gotta pee!", go outside, and "nope, I'll hold it".


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Winds are getting stronger in 30814 sounds like I'm at the ocean.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Power out in the pumpkin center area


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Seems like the wind has backed off a little since those last wind gusts that shook our world around here. I`m hoping we`ve seen the worst of it.


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## Battlewagon (Sep 11, 2017)

Lost power bout 10:00 here in the 31027. The old Ranger 8 is getting a workout. Gotta blend.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Forget post #923. That wind still rough.


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## Stonewall 2 (Sep 11, 2017)

Just lost power in Jackson Co near the Athens line


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## northgeorgiasportsman (Sep 11, 2017)

It's dead calm here in the mountains.  Weather apps and such say we're getting 22mph gusts, but the wind hasn't blown more than 5mph all day.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Local says the worst for us will be around 2 this afternoon. Hugh, Mark, is this still the case?


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Local says the worst for us will be around 2 this afternoon. Hugh, Mark, is this still the case?



That is correct.


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## keithsto (Sep 11, 2017)

Power just went out in Good Hope.


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## naildrvr (Sep 11, 2017)

Just lost power in the western part of Upson county. My mom said they still have power in Northside of Upson.


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## PopPop (Sep 11, 2017)

Out in Troup for about an hour, lit back up now.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Sustained winds here just enough to bend the top of the pine trees gust have subsided Mets saying it's gonna get worse around dark thirty.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Never mind just had a good gust


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Looking at velocity radar some strong winds over Milledgeville right now.


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## NCHillbilly (Sep 11, 2017)

After midnight tonight is supposed to be the worst here. At least they've backed down from the 50mph gusts they were forecasting earlier.


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## whitetaco02 (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD what's Jose going to do?  Possible impact to the Southeast?


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> That is correct.


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

whitetaco02 said:


> DDD what's Jose going to do?  Possible impact to the Southeast?



Honestly have not looked at but one map of Jose and it showed it going in around Virginia.  One storm at a time and that is a long way off from land fall.  Like 7-10 days.


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## Jeff C. (Sep 11, 2017)

Gusts have picked up significantly near ATL Motor Speedway-Hampton.....rainfall is heavier also.


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## doenightmare (Sep 11, 2017)

Think we have topped out at about 40 MPH in Roswell so far. Comes and goes but getting worse. Still got power but that is tenuous at best. Stay safe peeps.


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## ssramage (Sep 11, 2017)

Reports coming in from SSI are not good. Major flooding and damage. Praying our house and places of work are still there when we get home.


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## lagrangedave (Sep 11, 2017)

Power out in LaGrange ....


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## lbzdually (Sep 11, 2017)

Fairly calm here  at the Whitfield/Murray line.  I haven't seen or heard a gust over about 20 mph yet.  I'm afraid the rain is going to loosen the ground up and when the hard winds hit, lots of trees will get blown over.


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

Light wind and rain in dawsonville


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## Jeff C. (Sep 11, 2017)

doenightmare said:


> Think we have topped out at about 40 MPH in Roswell so far. Comes and goes but getting worse. Still got power but that is tenuous at best. Stay safe peeps.



Hang on Doe, took a while to get here. She's lettin me know she ain't done yet now.


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

Lost power long enough here in Dacula to turn everything off, but she popped back on... hold on girl!!!!  LOL


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## Hoss (Sep 11, 2017)

Right breezy in 30094 out around Magnet.  I really hate pine cones bombing the roof.  Makes me jump when I hear em.  

You folks stay safe.

Work said we could leave at 3, but since that was supposed to be near the peak of tree falling time, my folks and I decided to head out earlier.

Hoss


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## Stonewall 2 (Sep 11, 2017)

Just got power back out for an hour and a half hope it stays on!


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## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

naildrvr said:


> Just lost power in the western part of Upson county. My mom said they still have power in Northside of Upson.



Just lost power....


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## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

Fox 5 is here in Thomaston


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## elfiii (Sep 11, 2017)

Power went down around noon here in the 30341. They just got it back up. I don't expect it to last.


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## Matt.M (Sep 11, 2017)

UGH, just got a report of one of our shooting houses getting blown over.  Wondering how many will remain upright.


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## MariettaDawg (Sep 11, 2017)

ssramage said:


> Reports coming in from SSI are not good. Major flooding and damage. Praying our house and places of work are still there when we get home.



my in laws are off Buck Swamp Road south of the Lanier Bridge.  The marsh is our of its banks into their back yard.  Worst its ever been since they've lived there.


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## mammajamma (Sep 11, 2017)

Wind is showing itself here in Southern Paulding.  Friends are losing power.  Here we go...


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## joey1919 (Sep 11, 2017)

Pretty rough here in West Central


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## toyota4x4h (Sep 11, 2017)

still nothing in Dalton cept rainy and chilly..


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## JSnake (Sep 11, 2017)

Big red oak just nailed a neighbor's house here in stone mountain. I was outside in my car port when it happened - gust that did it was every bit of 50 mph


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## DDD (Sep 11, 2017)

My NE GA friends and Atlanta friends, worst is still yet to come.  

Just had the strongest gust I have seen yet.  Had to be 40+


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## Milkman (Sep 11, 2017)

We are seeing tree damage in past few minutes. Two big limbs broken and two small pines blown over that we can see from back porch. Very strong bursts at times now in Monroe   
Power is off now too.


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## Wycliff (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> My NE GA friends and Atlanta friends, worst is still yet to come.
> 
> Just had the strongest gust I have seen yet.  Had to be 40+



Same here in Augusta, thought it was going to blow me off my feet


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 11, 2017)

DDD said:


> My NE GA friends and Atlanta friends, worst is still yet to come.
> 
> Just had the strongest gust I have seen yet.  Had to be 40+



Yeah, the winds are ratcheting up over here. There were a couple gusts in the last few minutes that I have to think were strong 50s. Large hard wood trees appeared to shrink by ten feet or more because they were leaning so far over. I know this is nothing compared to a hurricane, I went through Hugo in Charlotte as a kid, but this is still more intense than I ever want to see here again for this long.


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## olered (Sep 11, 2017)

In Acworth near Kennesaw line very mild winds today so far and light to moderate rain.


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## mguthrie (Sep 11, 2017)

Getting some strong gusts in rockdale county. Power keeps going off and coming back on. It off now


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## Barfolomew (Sep 11, 2017)

In Marietta, we have some pretty good wind, but nothing more than a strong thunder storm or windy day in March.  Rain is steady, but not too bad.  A few limbs have fallen in the yard.


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## Nitram4891 (Sep 11, 2017)

3000ish of 6000 customers in my neighborhood without power here in  east ATL.   Biggest branch down about 8" diameter in my neighbors yard.


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## RinggoldGa (Sep 11, 2017)

Guess we'll find out what it takes to blow over a big fifth wheel camper in Athens today.  150 campers and RV's in Bulldog Park in Athens arranged in every direction of the compass.   Some will catch the wind full broadside.


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## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

Cooking chicken on the Weber


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## Big7 (Sep 11, 2017)

Still have power in Monroe. (Walton County)

Took a ride this morning, just some leaves and small branches
that I could see.

XGF said her power has been off for around 3 hours.
(Conyers, Rockdale County)


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Nitram4891 said:


> 3000ish of 6000 customers in my neighborhood without power here in  east ATL.   Biggest branch down about 8" diameter in my neighbors yard.





  There ain`t but around 5,000 folks in the county I grew up in.


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## Nitram4891 (Sep 11, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> There ain`t but around 5,000 folks in the county I grew up in.



Yeah they got us packed in here pretty good


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## Hoss (Sep 11, 2017)

Neighbor had the top come out of a pine tree.  Didn't land on anything important.  Still getting some good gusts with power flickering

Hoss


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## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

Cold beer also


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## B. White (Sep 11, 2017)

The folks with bradford pears in their yard are going to be busy.


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## Halfhitch (Sep 11, 2017)

Lights flickering off and on near Dawsonville Hwy close to lake. Strong gusts every few minutes. Have some large trees near house in back - ready for this to be over. Gonna cut some trees this fall/winter.

Everyone be safe.


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## Dustin Pate (Sep 11, 2017)

Been howling good in Heard. Gusting around 40 per EMA station. Lot of trees going down per dispatch radio. Power off for the last 20 minutes.


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

Getting a little gusty in Dville


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Dadgum storm is more aggravating than beggar lice and cockleburrs.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Trees down and scattered power outages around Grovetown.


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## Mike 65 (Sep 11, 2017)

Shingles blowing off the house and limbs down all over my yard in locust grove. 
Not sure about my upson county place. I'll know tomorrow I reckon.
Winds are stronger now than they've been all day.


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## nickel back (Sep 11, 2017)

Mike 65 said:


> Shingles blowing off the house and limbs down all over my yard in locust grove.
> Not sure about my upson county place. I'll know tomorrow I reckon.
> Winds are stronger now than they've been all day.



So far all is good my little area of Upson county


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

20k with out power in Richmond and Columbia county


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

I'm gonna get a hot shower while I can.


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## smokey30725 (Sep 11, 2017)

Dalton is getting breezy but nothing major yet. Hoping the NW corner of the state doesn't see much.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

My old crew got the word last night to pack their bags, show up at the headquarters at 6 AM this morning, and plan on being gone for 14 days. Ga Power crews all over the state are gearing up.


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## calibob1 (Sep 11, 2017)

Some of the PG&E group are headed to Fl.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 11, 2017)

Huge oak tree, probably 60ft or better tall, just nearly landed on my next door neighbor's house. Missed it by a couple feet but the branches got launched onto the roof.


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Huge oak tree, probably 60ft or better tall, just nearly landed on my next door neighbor's house. Missed it by a couple feet but the branches got launched onto the roof.



Glad it missed, I bet we get trees down everywhere


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2017)

Big7 said:


> Still have power in Monroe. (Walton County)
> 
> Took a ride this morning, just some leaves and small branches
> that I could see.
> ...


 power out at my walton county casa since 3pm. Trees are getting shredded.


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## olered (Sep 11, 2017)

About the same in Acworth gusts maybe a little stronger.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Wind has subsided here good luck to the rest of yall


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## Wycliff (Sep 11, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Wind has subsided here good luck to the rest of yall



They did here too far about 30 minutes but they are back


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## smokey30725 (Sep 11, 2017)

Not too bad in Dalton yet. Is the NW corner getting spared or has it just not gotten here yet?


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

Power bounced here in dville 3 times.


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## Luke0927 (Sep 11, 2017)

power is down for me in north east Forsyth co.  winds have been blowing!


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## doenightmare (Sep 11, 2017)

It's been bad here the last couple three four hours. Stuff hitting the house - not sure what I'll find when I get a chance to inspect it. Can't believe power and cable haven't gone out. Just heard an explosion west of me. A lot of Roswell has no power. Irma sux, hurricanes suck.


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## Cook&Bro (Sep 11, 2017)

*Could Have Been Worse*

Large (12"-14") branch snapped off a pine tree next to our carport.  Smaller limb went through the carport roof, broke off the main branch. Main branch bounced off carport roof and jammed against the house.  My wife had just stepped away from the kitchen sink.  I'm tempted to repair everything myself, BUT the tree is jammed above our HVAC units. The lower end of the branch is on our deck, which has been damaged.  We still have power (30677), but both daughters have lost power, one in Walton County and the other in Athens-Clarke. Not enjoying the gusts, they are strong.


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## deerslayer357 (Sep 11, 2017)

Very windy in Lexington ga- east of Athens.  Been windy since 11 or so, seems to be gusting harder now though.  Still have power for now, but lights flicker every few minutes.  Hoping to make it though with no serious problems


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## georgia357 (Sep 11, 2017)

Whiteboy said:


> The folks with bradford pears in their yard are going to be busy.



The Devils own creation.  I have four in my yard and already have two good sized limbs down.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

hard rain now I don't expect flooding system is moving fast. Wycliff was correct wind gust seem to sneak in. Pine cones sound like grenades on the tin roof.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

We got lucky glad Irma went west.


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## PappyHoel (Sep 11, 2017)

Power has been out for 1.5 hrs now I don't expect it to be back on till tomorrow


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Lineman ain't gonna work in this mess


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## jbird1 (Sep 11, 2017)

PappyHoel said:


> Power has been out for 1.5 hrs now I don't expect it to be back on till tomorrow


Lights still on a few miles up the road.  I'm thinking we may have witnessed 75 mph gusts around here.  For a brief second, I thought some 18 inch oaks were coming down.  It definitely makes me appreciate what 100+ winds are.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

Wind isnt blowing anymore just a steady rain for the store csra. Walmarks  power is out, and ebt is down.


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Fuzzy D Fellers said:


> Lineman ain't gonna work in this mess





They`re out working now. And with very little sleep or rest, they`ll work till everybody is back on.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 11, 2017)

30k with out power in Columbia and Richmond counties


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## Nicodemus (Sep 11, 2017)

Time for  a new thread, Miggy and DDD. One of ya`ll start it.


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