# Winter Weather Thread 2010-2011 (V)



## DDD

Let's see what else we can cook up.  


I would like to track one more storm.  

Nothing is close right now, but some prospects 10 days out.


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## Unicoidawg

Drum us up another one DDD......


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## Worley

*Weather*

DDD let us thaw out a couple of days first, before you make any more predictions.  You been spot on, so wait a while before the next round.  Been a lot of fun though


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## Miguel Cervantes

If we go through this many threads in STS season I'm gonna need a raise.


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If we go through this many threads in STS season I'm gonna need a raise.



After this last storm and my accuracy, I am going to offer to contract with local stations for my services.


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> After this last storm and my accuracy, I am going to offer to contract with local stations for my services.


 
Well, the upside to that is, if you are wrong you can still brag about how right you were anyways.....


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## Fro1911nut

DDD said:


> After this last storm and my accuracy, I am going to offer to contract with local stations for my services.



They were just grilling the Atlanta Mayor on Fox 5 and they asked him "Well we were forecasting 5-7"s on Thursday". I was thinking umm no you were not!


Next time it can be like a episode of 24...the Mayor "Get me DDD"!


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## DDD

I am still waiting to hear Kirk Melish say he called it.


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## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> I am still waiting to hear Kirk Melish say he called it.


He didn't!!

As a matter of a fact on his blog he did everything in the world to explain it away!!


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## Bnathanb1982

Fro1911nut said:


> They were just grilling the Atlanta Mayor on Fox 5 and they asked him "Well we were forecasting 5-7"s on Thursday". I was thinking umm no you were not!
> 
> Yeah I think they did forecast that ONE time and then completely changed their forecast and said 1-2 inches up until there were 3 inches on the ground.  They don't bother telling anyone that


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## YankeeRedneck

You guys ARE the weather channel as far as this yankee is concerned!!!  Great job DDD and Miguel.


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## dirtroad

YankeeRedneck said:


> You guys ARE the weather channel as far as this yankee is concerned!!!  Great job DDD and Miguel.



x2,except for the yankee part.


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## gobbleinwoods

I play with predicting but DDD and MC take it to another level.   Good job.


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## bigox911

DDD said:


> After this last storm and my accuracy, I am going to offer to contract with local stations for my services.



I have heard Kirk Mellish arrogantly brag several times about how he keeps the good information for his "paying clients"

We need to get you that list


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## doenightmare

Of all the local hacks - GB was the first I saw to jump on board. He said as early as last Wednesday that the Euro seemed to be the best model in this scenario. I do think DDD should replace Brad Ditz however. Great job - bring on the next one (after a break of course).


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## Dustin Pate

Yep I am done with the local folks jumping on board after the fact and saying they called it. No you didn't. Saying that you may have to up your predictions after it has already started is just stupid. It's already too late then.


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## Crooked Stick

*So Triple D*

What about the 24th???? Looks like I'll be coming back from Charlotte. Do I need to reschedule?


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## GA DAWG

Its gonna snow again before winter is over..No doubt about that..This ones been on the ground longer than 3 days..


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## Minner

GA DAWG said:


> Its gonna snow again before winter is over..No doubt about that..This ones been on the ground longer than 3 days..



That's what my great grandmother used to say. If it's there three days, it's waiting on another one...


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## elfiii

DDD said:


> Let's see what else we can cook up.
> 
> 
> I would like to track one more storm.
> 
> Nothing is close right now, but some prospects 10 days out.



1/24-1/28 don't work fo me. That's a payroll week. Pick something else besides a payroll week this time. I'm gettin' too old for this High Anxiety stuff!


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## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> 1/24-1/28 don't work fo me. That's a payroll week. Pick something else besides a payroll week this time. I'm gettin' too old for this High Anxiety stuff!


 
Ban him if he doesn't change the dates..


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## Resica

What would Georgia do if you received 24" of snow and a 2 weeks of below freezing temps. for highs? Atlanta should probably invest in more plows.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Resica said:


> What would Georgia do if you received 24" of snow and a 2 weeks of below freezing temps. for highs? Atlanta should probably invest in more plows.


 
When that becomes the trend perhaps that will be considered. It is not frugal to invest millions in equipment that will sit rusting waiting another 10 years for such a cyclical event, only to be sold at auction for a mere fraction of the purchase price.

This too shall pass.


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## Resica

How many days of lost business would it take for the city to invest. How much money have they lost? Is the city up and running 100% yet?


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## jcountry

Miguel Cervantes said:


> When that becomes the trend perhaps that will be considered. It is not frugal to invest millions in equipment that will sit rusting waiting another 10 years for such a cyclical event, only to be sold at auction for a mere fraction of the purchase price.
> 
> This too shall pass.



The part that gets me is that the city of Atlanta somehow scared up a whole bunch of spreader trucks yesterday.  They only had 11, and they contracted for something like 50 more.  My question is why they didn't scare these trucks up BEFORE this storm?  

Obviously, these trucks were available from contractors of some kind, and they didn't come from far away.  Why didn't they do this when it would have actually made a difference?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Resica said:


> How many days of lost business would it take for the city to invest. How much money have they lost? Is the city up and running 100% yet?


 
It's not just the city, the feds aren't any better. I have now officially gone 4 days without recieving the first piece of mail, and my roads are very passable.


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## Brian Groce

*Mail*



Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not just the city, the feds aren't any better. I have now officially gone 4 days without recieving the first piece of mail, and my roads are very passable.



What happened to that "Rain, Sleet nor Snow shall keep us from our appointed rounds" motto.


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## DDD

One thing I can say about the GA DOT.  Their staff has been cut by 1,100 people in the last 2 years.  Their budget has gotten cut deep in the last 2 years.  Yet a snow storm followed by deep cold hits and everyone wants to scream that the DOT stinks.  Well, I for one think they did the best they could with what they had.

I personally don't want to pay higher taxes for equipment that MIGHT get used once every 5 to 10 years.  No thanks.


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not just the city, the feds aren't any better. I have now officially gone 4 days without recieving the first piece of mail, and my roads are very passable.



We have gotten mail the last 2 days.  Seems Walton County is on strike.


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## Resica

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not just the city, the feds aren't any better. I have now officially gone 4 days without recieving the first piece of mail, and my roads are very passable.



A huge city like Atlanta should be prepared for something like this, it's not like they haven't taken any money from the citizens.


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## Resica

DDD said:


> One thing I can say about the GA DOT.  Their staff has been cut by 1,100 people in the last 2 years.  Their budget has gotten cut deep in the last 2 years.  Yet a snow storm followed by deep cold hits and everyone wants to scream that the DOT stinks.  Well, I for one think they did the best they could with what they had.
> 
> I personally don't want to pay higher taxes for equipment that MIGHT get used once every 5 to 10 years.  No thanks.



Would it have been better before the cuts? No it wouldn't have. Get more than 10 plows for the city, for goodness sake. They've lost more revenue in the last 4 days than we can comprehend.


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## deermeat270

DDD said:


> One thing I can say about the GA DOT.  Their staff has been cut by 1,100 people in the last 2 years.  Their budget has gotten cut deep in the last 2 years.  Yet a snow storm followed by deep cold hits and everyone wants to scream that the DOT stinks.  Well, I for one think they did the best they could with what they had.
> 
> I personally don't want to pay higher taxes for equipment that MIGHT get used once every 5 to 10 years.  No thanks.



Totally agree...


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## Resica

How's 75 north from Macon and 85 to Charlotte and 77 to Virgina from there? I have to meet my aunt down in Wytheville Va.on Sat. to bring her up here.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Resica said:


> Would it have been better before the cuts? No it wouldn't have. Get more than 10 plows for the city, for goodness sake. They've lost more revenue in the last 4 days than we can comprehend.


 
How so? The per diam income not collected this week by tax paying corporations within the perimeter will be made up next week, as no clients have abandoned their suppliers of goods or services. So the money will be made and the taxes will still be paid to the city. No loss, no big deal.

One thing you learn (that you have obviously forgotten) is that in the South, patience is truly a virtue. The biggest travesty in terms of in state commerce is that not one single hauling company that owns multiple dump trucks will purchase plows to be fitted on their trucks for future contract work to assist local municipalities in case of another event. In a depressed economy that is a wonderful opportunity to make gains where very few exist. The cost of a plow attachment is a fraction of what a complete truck purchased by the state is, along with the overall cost of hiring the employee to operate it. The private contractor already has 90% of the game in place.


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## DDD

Resica said:


> Would it have been better before the cuts? No it wouldn't have. Get more than 10 plows for the city, for goodness sake. They've lost more revenue in the last 4 days than we can comprehend.



The City of Atlanta is different than the GA DOT.  The DOT has more than 10 plows.


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## Resica

DDD said:


> The City of Atlanta is different than the GA DOT.  The DOT has more than 10 plows.


Good.


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## bml

DDD, or Miguel,  how do you feel about the low temps that the various media outlets are forecasting for tonight and tomorrow???


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## Resica

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How so? The per diam income not collected this week by tax paying corporations within the perimeter will be made up next week, as no clients have abandoned their suppliers of goods or services. So the money will be made and the taxes will still be paid to the city. No loss, no big deal.
> 
> One thing you learn (that you have obviously forgotten) is that in the South, patience is truly a virtue. The biggest travesty in terms of in state commerce is that not one single hauling company that owns multiple dump trucks will purchase plows to be fitted on their trucks for future contract work to assist local municipalities in case of another event. In a depressed economy that is a wonderful opportunity to make gains where very few exist. The cost of a plow attachment is a fraction of what a complete truck purchased by the state is, along with the overall cost of hiring the employee to operate it. The private contractor already has 90% of the game in place.


I suppose when they are not working they are not making money. Money they collect next week will be money made next week  not his week.  Every day not working is a big deal.


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## Resica

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How so? The per diam income not collected this week by tax paying corporations within the perimeter will be made up next week, as no clients have abandoned their suppliers of goods or services. So the money will be made and the taxes will still be paid to the city. No loss, no big deal.
> 
> One thing you learn (that you have obviously forgotten) is that in the South, patience is truly a virtue. The biggest travesty in terms of in state commerce is that not one single hauling company that owns multiple dump trucks will purchase plows to be fitted on their trucks for future contract work to assist local municipalities in case of another event. In a depressed economy that is a wonderful opportunity to make gains where very few exist. The cost of a plow attachment is a fraction of what a complete truck purchased by the state is, along with the overall cost of hiring the employee to operate it. The private contractor already has 90% of the game in place.



It's not profitable, why would they Hugh?


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## Miguel Cervantes

bml said:


> DDD, or Miguel, how do you feel about the low temps that the various media outlets are forecasting for tonight and tomorrow???


 
I feel they will be cold..


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## crackerdave

Good call,seen-yore!


I don't know fer sure,but I _think_ there might be a little corruption in Atlanta's government,Resica.


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## Resica

crackerdave said:


> Good call,seen-yore!
> 
> 
> I don't know fer sure,but I _think_ there might be a little corruption in Atlanta's government,Resica.



Ya think Dave?


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## elfiii

Resica said:


> A huge city like Atlanta should be prepared for something like this, it's not like they haven't taken any money from the citizens.



Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.

Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.

The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!


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## Resica

elfiii said:


> Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.
> 
> Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.
> 
> The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!



Until you get another one next month.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Resica said:


> Until you get another one next month.


 SHHHHHHHHHHH, don't give our secret away...
Plus the city was stocking the salt quantities based on what the local met's told them about how mild a winter it would be.


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## RUTTNBUCK

elfiii said:


> Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.
> 
> Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.
> 
> The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!


Thanks to this thread I was prepared even though I didn't need it!!............I had food, water, propane, firewood, dog food for the dog, emergency lighting, Battery power for cell phones, and laptops............And enough Grizzly to last until today!!


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## DDD

Oh and not to get all New Orleans on y'all, but if the state of GA declared a state of emergency doesn't that mean we should be getting our debit cards in the mail soon?

I mean, my kids need a new Wii or we could have one heck of a playoff party!


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## GA DAWG

Is this thread in the polictical forum? We aint got no mail either. The wastewater plant cant close yet the post office can. Dangit. I should have been a mailman.


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## jcountry

DDD said:


> Oh and not to get all New Orleans on y'all, but if the state of GA declared a state of emergency doesn't that mean we should be getting our debit cards in the mail soon?
> 
> I mean, my kids need a new Wii or we could have one heck of a playoff party!



Excellent Point!

Every time I see another natural disaster, I think of that huge fiasco!  The next time we have a major hurricane, I am convinced people will be driving TOWARD that sucker.

How the heck else can you get so much money for riding out a storm?  There are still thousands living in hotels to this day-and probably for the rest of their lives.

-People in the midwest have floods destroy their towns frequently, but I don't recall any of those guys pulling this "we are such victims-give us money" mess.  (They just purchase insurance.)


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## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Oh and not to get all New Orleans on y'all, but if the state of GA declared a state of emergency doesn't that mean we should be getting our debit cards in the mail soon?
> 
> I mean, my kids need a new Wii or we could have one heck of a playoff party!


What you reckon them folks in Australia are gettin?? There is a much larger area affected than the folks in New Orleans........Slowly tip toeing away!!

Not making fun of folks in a bad way, but them folks down there are in a bad way!!.


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## Miguel Cervantes

RUTTNBUCK said:


> And enough Grizzly to last until today!!


Rub it in,,, Jackwagon!!!!


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## Wade Chandler

Dang, when I pulled this up and saw we were on page 2, I started to get excited thinking something else was slipping up on us. . . oh well, I guess I need to get over it and go through withdrawals.


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## Paymaster

Well due to these weather threads I was well prepared for what ever was going to happen. We were froze into our drive way and pretty much still are. Without these threads I would not have convinced my family to prepare. As fun as the threads were,I still took it serious. We came out good. I did have to give away two loaves of bread yesterday.Did not want them to go stale.


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## Wade Chandler

I agree with ya Paymaster.  I was able to get our staff at the Inn prepared to be snowed in and I was able to get myself off and snowed in somewhere else.  That was all well and good except that I had to hike 5 miles back in to work yesterday since we still have had no melting up here.  Oh the joys of living and working on top of a mountain.


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## contender*

elfiii said:


> Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.
> 
> Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.
> 
> The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!



To borrow a post from someone around here...
BOOYAH!!!!!

I couldn't agree more. I'm sick of hearing folks complain about rd conditions and how the DOT and city governments have "failed them".. This ain't Bismark ND, we don't get 24" snows six times a winter. We get 6" snows every 5-10 YEARS.. It's time for those that want to live in a state where the local government is prepared for 24" snows to either suck it up or move. We're rednecks, "WE GOT THIS", as my daughter would say!!!


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## DEERFU

elfiii said:


> Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.
> 
> Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.
> 
> The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!


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## Brian Groce

*Bbbbbbbbbbbbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr*

It was cold in Taylorsville this morning.


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## bigox911

For those that watch the models, it is interesting to see the differences between this storm and the Christmas storm and see which models handled it better.  The Christmas storm ended up being driven a lot by the phasing of the northern and southern branches while this one seemed to be more driven by a more powerful southern branch shortwave popping a more powerful convective gulf low.  The GFS and ECMWF seemed to handle the Christmas storm better while the NAM seemed to handle this past weekends storm better.  I know that the set up may not and probably could not be a black or white one scenario or the other, but may it be something to keep in the back of our heads the next time we're watching one and whether the models are showing a phasing situation or one that is purely driven by a southern branch system


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## ryano

contender* said:


> I couldn't agree more. I'm sick of hearing folks complain about rd conditions and how the DOT and city governments have "failed them".. This ain't Bismark ND, we don't get 24" snows six times a winter. We get 6" snows every 5-10 YEARS.. It's time for those that want to live in a state where the local government is prepared for 24" snows to either suck it up or move. We're rednecks, "WE GOT THIS", as my daughter would say!!!


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## deermeat270

So the next blizzard opportunity should be next Sunday, right DDD?


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## rospaw

deermeat270 said:


> So the next blizzard opportunity should be next Sunday, right DDD?



DDD is playing it smart!  Knowning that if he starts his predictions then the questions will KEEP COMING...... Poor guy is tired from last week  But i am keeping my eye on this thread for when HE does comes out of his cave and speaks  to us!


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## K80

deermeat270 said:


> So the next blizzard opportunity should be next Sunday, right DDD?



Next week starts spring, at least that is what I want to hear.  I don't know how many more $300 light bills and $200 gas bills I can take. The worst part is, this cold snap is not on that powerbill.


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## elfiii

Resica said:


> Until you get another one next month.



I got plenty of firewood and the likker stores are well stocked.


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## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> I got plenty of firewood and the likker stores are well stocked.


 
What more does a man need?


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## jcountry

contender* said:


> To borrow a post from someone around here...
> BOOYAH!!!!!
> 
> I couldn't agree more. I'm sick of hearing folks complain about rd conditions and how the DOT and city governments have "failed them".. This ain't Bismark ND, we don't get 24" snows six times a winter. We get 6" snows every 5-10 YEARS.. It's time for those that want to live in a state where the local government is prepared for 24" snows to either suck it up or move. We're rednecks, "WE GOT THIS", as my daughter would say!!!



The part I can't get past is how there are trucks available, but they didn't contract with whomever owns them until AFTER the storm. 

The city of Atlanta started with 11, and found 53 somewhere.  They didn't buy them-just contracted for their use.  Now-if these trucks are available, and they had just contracted for them BEFORE the storm, we would not have seen nearly so much drama.

-Sand and salt does little good ON TOP OF 5 inches of ice, much better results when applied ahead of the storm....


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## HammerG26

Yeah - it amazed me that we (in our neighborhood) were able to get all of the snow and ice melted in our driveways and the main road out of our area because we took care of it first thing Monday morning... it was a lot of work, but we were prepared (mostly because I warned people based on the previous thread)... granted, the scale was a lot smaller, but the concept remains the same.  The mets got it wrong, and the people in charge did not get prepared, etc.  Rant off...


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## Fro1911nut

Next storm system begins to take shape sun over east texas as
closed low over the 4 corners opens up and tries to phase with
east coast trough. Interesting feature ahead of this system will
be the high that bridges north of the area over the ohio valley
with a wedge setting up on the lee side of the appalachians sun
night into monday. This would keep low level cold air in place as
precip begins overspreading the area mon morning. Prospects for
freezing rain look minimal at this point as taking the warmer and
more accurate of late met numbers gives us temps of 33 and 34 and
precip timing looks to be just after the coldest of the air is in
place. Will therefore indicate only a slight chance of fzra for
the mountain areas for now although the valleys could be as cold
or colder depending on wedge that sets up. Will let later shifts
continue to refine but overall winter threat appears low at this
time.

For the remainder of this event...have decreased pops initially for
mon as it appears to be a split flow environment per the gfs and
nam12 with tennessee valley seeing best isentropic ascent ahead of missouri
short wave and southern stream system too far south to affect area
through 18z mon. Conditions will deteriorate quickly thereafter
with enough model consensus in a strengthening wedge and strong
diffluent signature to warrant high end likely to categorical pops
for the eastern zones. All sounding show significant warm layer
with no precip type concerns after initial onset.

.long term /tuesday through saturday/...
Secondary system will be right on the heels of the first as next
arctic high begins to make its plunge southward. Shortwave to move
through tue night will result in liquid precip once again but
with cold air funneling in on the back side...cannot rule out some
snsh developing over the northern tier and will leave currently
advertised grids as is. Latest gfs is slightly different with
arctic high in bringing it down more in phases which is more
typical of these setups. Moisture field is also more substantial
with this run...but regardless of how much moisture there
is...the degree of cold air advertised by models will result in some
snsh activity for at least the high elevations and likely further south.

As far as temps...this run still shows -14c at 850 all the way
down into the forecast area which would likely result in temps
well below that of the mexmos. Went below guidance but did bring
up slightly for collaboration purposes.


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## DDD

Guys, there is not enough cold air in place for what the NWS is yacking about.

I think we are now looking at something out past the 24th.  So enjoy the down time.

There will be some serious cold in here around the 21st that should set the stage for what is to come... we will just have to wait and see.

As a side note, I was very surprised to find slick snowy - icy slick roads tonight in Barrow county.  Amazing how long the snow / ice pack has held on in shady areas.


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## Bnathanb1982

*Yup*



DDD said:


> Guys, there is not enough cold air in place for what the NWS is yacking about.
> 
> I think we are now looking at something out past the 24th.  So enjoy the down time.
> 
> There will be some serious cold in here around the 21st that should set the stage for what is to come... we will just have to wait and see.
> 
> As a side note, I was very surprised to find slick snowy - icy slick roads tonight in Barrow county.  Amazing how long the snow / ice pack has held on in shady areas.



Yeah I went through Barrow yesterday and it's unbelievable the amount of snow piled up in the Walmart parking lot.  The one in Monroe looked nothing like that.  

And the icy spots still around are very bad because people driving along especially at night will go a mile without seeing any ice and then all of a sudden they run up on a place of bad ice at 60mph and it's not a good combination.  Don't ask me how I know


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## Fro1911nut

.long term /wednesday through sunday/...
Another arctic surge appears destined for the se u.s. During this
period. The polar vortex will deepen significantly wed-thu in the
wake of the short term system. An arctic high will quickly drop se
from sc canada toward the se u.s. In the deepening nw flow thu-
fri. Sufficient forcing appears evident with the driving upper
short wave thu-thu night to support -shra. However...the ecmwf qpf
of 1.0-1.5 inch appears way overdone given that deeper moisture
has been removed by the initial early week system. Prefer lighter
qpf depicted by the gfs for this period. Strong caa and orographic
lifting provide a classic setup for -shsn in the ne mountains.
This is consistent with earlier thinking for these periods. An
inch or so of snow certainly not out of the question for the ne
mountains with this scenario. The arctic high will settle across
the se states early sat...then modify and drift east by sun as the
upper flow remains relatively progressive within the mean eastern
u.s. Trough. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond this
with respect to potential southern stream short waves early the
following week. With a remnant arctic air mass across the
region...any such systems could bring more winter wx to the area
and will need to be watched carefully. In addition...the 00z ecmwf
has just come in with a completely different solution from the 12z
run...showing a warmer...but still with some winter wx potential
during the later portion of the extended. For consistency...will
remain with the more consistent run-to-run gfs solution for the
extended periods and not mention any winter wx other than the
-shsn n ga thu night/fri morning.

Mex mos comes in colder with each run for the fri-sat
period...consistent with earlier thinking. The source region of the
late week air mass emanates from a very cold air mass currently
located across siberia. 850mb temps are still progged to approach
-40c across se canada late in the week...with -16c pushing into n ga
fri. Analogous to similar events...e.g...12 dec 2010...this would
equate to highs 25 to 30 n ga and 35 to 40 central ga
fri...recovering during the weekend but remaining below normal. Will
lean toward the coldest members of the deterministic guidance for
these periods.


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## Paymaster

Took this pic Friday evening of my driveway! Still alot of ice out there in the yard today!


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## jcountry

How about the snow chances this coming weeked/early next week?


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## bigox911

jcountry said:


> How about the snow chances this coming weeked/early next week?



Just lookin cold right now.  Over the weekend some snow did show up on a model or two, but now just looking more like a cold front coming through and getting real cold again.  As always, things can change though. 

The far NEGA mountains may see a few flakes tonight.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

In observing the current Arctic Oscillation I don't anticipate anymore frozen participation in any measurable amount until the last week of the month at the earliest, and more likely the end of February / beginning of March. (I was wrong twice before thought)


----------



## DDD

This weekend is cold rain and clouds.

Keep the 24th and the 25th open on your calendars though.


----------



## Matt.M

Making a call a week out.  I like it.  

Where's a link to the blog that MC setup?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> Making a call a week out. I like it.
> 
> Where's a link to the blog that MC setup?


 
PM sent.


----------



## Nugefan

DDD said:


> As a side note, I was very surprised to find slick snowy - icy slick roads tonight in Barrow county.  Amazing how long the snow / ice pack has held on in shady areas.




be careful in my neck of the woods still 2 areas that are ice covered ....


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> This weekend is cold rain and clouds.
> 
> Keep the 24th and the 25th open on your calendars though.



Wow this could be fun again!! Looking forward to the next round of predictions etc.


----------



## whitetaco02

MC, send me the link as well.  Thanks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

whitetaco02 said:


> MC, send me the link as well. Thanks!


 
Incoming


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Incoming



May I get the link as well? That ok?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> May I get the link as well? That ok?


 
incoming.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

MC, hook me up with the link too


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

deerhuntingdawg said:


> MC, hook me up with the link too



Me too PLEASE.


----------



## bml

I'd like the link please.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Would like the kink also please and again thank you


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PM's sent .


----------



## jgriffi87

I'd like the link also.


----------



## Priest

Link pleeeeeeaaaase?  If you have it set up where the blog can make money... the more traffic the better right?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Priest said:


> Link pleeeeeeaaaase? If you have it set up where the blog can make money... the more traffic the better right?


 
No money being made, unfortunately. Pm's sent.


----------



## Resica

Snowing here now. Calling for 1-4 then 1/10  

 of ice and an inch of sleet.  Feel like I'm in Dixie.


----------



## Money man

Resica said:


> Snowing here now. Calling for 1-4 then 1/10
> 
> of ice and an inch of sleet.  Feel like I'm in Dixie.



Hey send us some pics of folks driving on that ice. I keep hearing how the northern folk can drive on that stuff with no issues at all. If possible, can you get some shots near an overpass or a hill with a stop sign at the bottom of it? I love those views. 

PS: Be careful out there.


----------



## YankeeRedneck

Money man said:


> Hey send us some pics of folks driving on that ice. I keep hearing how the northern folk can drive on that stuff with no issues at all. If possible, can you get some shots near an overpass or a hill with a stop sign at the bottom of it? I love those views.
> 
> PS: Be careful out there.


 That is just a urban legend Money. NO ONE drives on ice very well no one!!


----------



## Resica

Money man said:


> Hey send us some pics of folks driving on that ice. I keep hearing how the northern folk can drive on that stuff with no issues at all. If possible, can you get some shots near an overpass or a hill with a stop sign at the bottom of it? I love those views.
> 
> PS: Be careful out there.



See what we can do!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Yeah, they're real pro's at driving on ice up in Pa..

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rpC3vKKk_Pk?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rpC3vKKk_Pk?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Don't they have a minimum speed on the Interstates in Pa?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, they're real pro's at driving on ice up in Pa..
> 
> <object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rpC3vKKk_Pk?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rpC3vKKk_Pk?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>


And they drive with their hazards on too!


----------



## Resica

Those are the first accidents I've ever heard of in Pa. caused by inclement weather.


----------



## Resica

gobbleinwoods said:


> Don't they have a minimum speed on the Interstates in Pa?



Probably 40 isn't it?


----------



## OutFishHim

Resica said:


> Those are the first accidents I've ever heard of in Pa. caused by inclement weather.



I'm sure..

Hey Yank


----------



## Resica

OutFishHim said:


> I'm sure..
> 
> Hey Yank



Seriously!!!


Hello Yanktress!!


----------



## DDD

24-25th... I tell ya.  

Something is a coming next week.  A few more model runs and some time to type and I will bring you all up to speed.

Just for now, know that DDD thinks a week from today is going to be interesting.


----------



## BBQBOSS

DDD said:


> 24-25th... I tell ya.
> 
> Something is a coming next week.  A few more model runs and some time to type and I will bring you all up to speed.
> 
> Just for now, know that DDD thinks a week from today is going to be interesting.


----------



## OutFishHim

DDD said:


> 24-25th... I tell ya.
> 
> Something is a coming next week.  A few more model runs and some time to type and I will bring you all up to speed.
> 
> Just for now, know that DDD thinks a week from today is going to be interesting.



No thanks


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> 24-25th... I tell ya.
> 
> Something is a coming next week. A few more model runs and some time to type and I will bring you all up to speed.
> 
> Just for now, know that DDD thinks a week from today is going to be interesting.


 

You know DDD has gotten big - he is referring to himself in 3rd person.


----------



## shakey gizzard

doenightmare said:


> You know DDD has gotten big - he is referring to himself in 3rd person.


----------



## deermeat270

My wife just asked..... Is that triple D


----------



## DDD

doenightmare said:


> You know DDD has gotten big - he is referring to himself in 3rd person.



Yeah, I hope I have not gotten to big for my britches.


----------



## DDD

FYI, the 28th of January is a big hit for us as well, but 10 days out is too much to get excited.  Big potential on the horizon.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

doenightmare said:


> You know DDD has gotten big - he is referring to himself in 3rd person.



Jimmy likes Elaine.


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> FYI, the 28th of January is a big hit for us as well, but 10 days out is too much to get excited.  Big potential on the horizon.



North of I 20?


----------



## WoodsmanEd

whitetaco02 said:


> North of I 20?



They forget about folks down south we like snow too we are tried of getting the left over ice.


----------



## Bnathanb1982

*Lol*



deermeat270 said:


> My wife just asked..... Is that triple D



I guess folk find it easier to call him "triple D" than to say hey is that D,D,D.  Of course some folks just like saying triple D more too probably


----------



## biggtruxx

DDD I am intrested to see some models for the 24th. Can you post up what you are seeing within them at the moment please.


----------



## HammerG26

Woo Hoo... Ready for some more snow... (I really should live up north)...


----------



## crokseti

Come up here and get you a bait of it.
 There was slush on the hill today. Rain finally got it.


----------



## YankeeRedneck

dirtroad said:


> x2,except for the yankee part.


----------



## DDD

biggtruxx said:


> DDD I am intrested to see some models for the 24th. Can you post up what you are seeing within them at the moment please.



After last night's EURO and Canadian models and the GFS starting to pick up on what the foriegn models are yelling about... I am not happy to report that ICE may be in our future.

The 24-25 is not a snow set up.  At least not for now.

The one - two punch that I eluded to is not playing out like I thought it would, but in the same breath it's starting to look like a signifigant icing event.  I knew I was not going crazy when I heard Kirk Melish mention it this morning on the radio.

Given verbatim, there is a set up and then a kill shot.  The set up starts tomorrow night through the weekend.  Cold air will set up here much like it did 2 weeks ago.  The chance of flurries tomorrow night into Friday morning usher in the cold air.  

Sunday a High Pressure system moves through the NE and reinforces the cold air down the East side of the Apps, but it is a fast mover.  Another HPS moves in right behind it, but much, much stronger.  Centered up above Maine.  With all the cold air at the surface and the reinforcing cold down the eastern seaboard it really locks the cold air in.  It has no where to go.

Enter a system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and you have warm air moisture moving in.  The Canadian and EURO have much more moisture on them than the GFS.  The GFS sheers out the moisture as it approaches.  As is with every system this winter, the moisture will increase on the GFS as the time gets closer.  

Right now ICE would be a concern in my mind from La Grange, to Griffin over to Augusta.  The GFS shows the freezing line on Tuesday around Macon, but I think that will shift a bit north.  Could be 3/8 - 3/4" of moisture given the precip maps.

It is concerning and I think it is why Kirk mentioned it, the models usually do not handle the CAD, Wedge, Tommy Wedgie, situations well.  For it to be picking up on the solution 6-7 days out concerns me a little.  Is it completely coo-coo and is showing a false solution?  I don't think so, not with 2 models showing it and the GFS thinking about it.  So then one has to ask, if it IS picking up on it and normally only gets more progressive as it gets closer... does this mean something big in the way of ice is headed our way?

Just like a soap opera or a train wreck... we just have to wait and watch.

(See I made up for my lack of typing)


----------



## marknga

thanks DDD


----------



## todd03blown

uh oh.....Ice is not good....Wonder how far north the ice line could be....


----------



## DDD

Yeah, and the more I see the more I think this might be a reality.  Looking at some of the blocking up in Canada, a saving grace might be that this CAD is so strong that it is more sleet than freezing rain.

Long way to go.


----------



## FlyDawg72

WOW! The weather patterns this year are so bizarre compared to the recent past... flooding, snow/ice, etc.

Thanks again for the insight DDD.


----------



## DDD

After seeing the EURO from last night and the Canadian modeling that just came out, seeing as they have beat the GFS at this range like Georgia beats GT every year (9 out of 10 tries), I may have to change the ice threat to SNOW threat in a big way.

Still looks to be on track for a Tuesday storm.  The Canadian modeling is a nice snow fall from Dallas to Charlotte.  Looks just like what we had 2 weeks ago, although a little different, still would be 4-8" of snow and probably ice to the south.

One thing is for sure, you kids better circle the 25th on your calendar because that day is looking like our next big chance.

EURO modeling is about to come out.


----------



## todd03blown

HOLY COW!! The atlanta area would go crazy if we got another 4-8" of snow next week...LOL!


----------



## DDD

Notice in the picture above the freezing line is down to the GA / FL line wiht moisture riding in above it.  Also notice the moisture back behind the main system.  That is #2.

I am telling you, next week is gonna be something to watch.  Not saying it will be a lock for winter weather, but with the PNA moving back positive and the NAO moving back negative... 

Tell 'em Bigox.


----------



## FlyDawg72

Funny, my Mom lives in Walker county and told me yesterday morning that the Chattanooga weather guy mentioned more snow on the way for the weekend and early next week.

Wonder why he's being SO BOLD with the "S - word", and still barely a peep in the Atlanta television market?


----------



## todd03blown

weather.com just updated their 10day forecast for Canton.

Earlier it was icy with a high of 50 on monday. Now it is snow monday and tuesday with a high right around 32 and low of 30 both days!!


----------



## jsullivan03

DDD said:


> After seeing the EURO from last night and the Canadian modeling that just came out, seeing as they have beat the GFS at this range like Georgia beats GT every year (9 out of 10 tries), I may have to change the ice threat to SNOW threat in a big way.
> 
> Still looks to be on track for a Tuesday storm.  The Canadian modeling is a nice snow fall from Dallas to Charlotte.  Looks just like what we had 2 weeks ago, although a little different, still would be 4-8" of snow and probably ice to the south.
> 
> One thing is for sure, you kids better circle the 25th on your calendar because that day is looking like our next big chance.
> 
> EURO modeling is about to come out.



After last week...I ain't to fond of snow anymore.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

FlyDawg72 said:


> Funny, my Mom lives in Walker county and told me yesterday morning that the Chattanooga weather guy mentioned more snow on the way for the weekend and early next week.
> 
> Wonder why he's being SO BOLD with the "S - word", and still barely a peep in the Atlanta television market?


 
Because they are the ones more likely to see it.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Well looks like another fun filled excitement packed week and a possible winter thread VI before Sunday....I will be prepared, BRING IT ON!!!!!


----------



## gacowboy

Keep us posted DDD, Thanks!!


----------



## debo

FlyDawg72 said:


> Funny, my Mom lives in Walker county and told me yesterday morning that the Chattanooga weather guy mentioned more snow on the way for the weekend and early next week.
> 
> Wonder why he's being SO BOLD with the "S - word", and still barely a peep in the Atlanta television market?


We still have snow hanging around today in some places. I dont want anymore ready for spring and some warm day.


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> Notice in the picture above the freezing line is down to the GA / FL line wiht moisture riding in above it.  Also notice the moisture back behind the main system.  That is #2.
> 
> I am telling you, next week is gonna be something to watch.  Not saying it will be a lock for winter weather, but with the PNA moving back positive and the NAO moving back negative...
> 
> Tell 'em Bigox.




You said a mouthfull   That +PNA with a big ridge going up to Alaska is a good sign for us







I know it's way out there, but that is on the 4th of Feb and the cold air is still here.  Waiting on that warm up JB...


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> Notice in the picture above the freezing line is down to the GA / FL line wiht moisture riding in above it.  Also notice the moisture back behind the main system.  That is #2.
> 
> I am telling you, next week is gonna be something to watch.  Not saying it will be a lock for winter weather, but with the PNA moving back positive and the NAO moving back negative...
> 
> Tell 'em Bigox.



Further to that...

Looking at these frames of the 12z GFS and those two pieces of energy linking up and going neutral maybe leaning a hair negative just to our north...I mean if it were to shift just a bit south and get a little more cold in hereit really be game on...


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Notice in the picture above the freezing line is down to the GA / FL line wiht moisture riding in above it.  Also notice the moisture back behind the main system.  That is #2.
> 
> I am telling you, next week is gonna be something to watch.  Not saying it will be a lock for winter weather, but with the PNA moving back positive and the NAO moving back negative...
> 
> Tell 'em Bigox.



Hmmmm,I want snow in Griffin this time


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

If this snow and ice keep coming, I'm jumping in my camper and heading to the Keys!!!!


----------



## Fro1911nut

Have been away from the pc today, but Kurt must be trying to get some rep back. He was talking about ice for next week....been a crazy winter


----------



## shakey gizzard

Fro1911nut said:


> Have been away from the pc today, but Kurt must be trying to get some rep back. He was talking about ice for next week....been a crazy winter



I think he's using the GON winter weather thread model!


----------



## Fro1911nut

From next door
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

GOT A "TWO-FER" ON THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL PLATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GETTING RID OF TODAY`S PESKY CLOUDINESS TAKE US TO THE
FIRST SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE BOTH FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL FORECAST TO STAY TO ALABAMA`S NORTH...
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OVERLAP IN THE COLD AIR CHASING THE
PRECIPITATION TO BRING SOME LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA.

THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE
IDEA EARLIER POSED BY THE ECMWF THAT SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN A SUFFICIENTLY COLD DEPTH TO SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF SNOW CRYSTALS. THE SAME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A RATHER SHORT (1 TO 3 HOUR) WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY...RIGHT AS THE PRECIP IS ENDING...FOR THOSE SNOW
CRYSTALS TO WALK THE TIGHTROPE OF 32 DEGREES F DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AND I WILL NOTE THAT THE ECMWF
IS ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS (AT THE SURFACE) AT
PRECIP CUT-OFF TIME. ANY SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH A DUSTING TO (WORST-CASE SCENARIO)
MAYBE A HALF INCH AT MOST. THE COLD AIR WILL BE FOLLOWING IN
BEHIND...SO ANYTHING THAT ENDS UP WET ON THE GROUND COULD BECOME
FROZEN BY MORNING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE CHILLY DAYS...EACH FOLLOWED
BY RESPECTIVELY COLD NIGHTS. THERE`S A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. THE
MODELS INSIST THAT THIS IS A BIT TOO SOON AFTER THE INITIAL SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BESIDES A FEW CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN`T BRING ANY SURPRISES.

THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
TAKES US TO OUR SECOND OF THE TWO WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
SYSTEMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
THE TRICKY PART WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...IS THE APPARENT
PRESENCE OF A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS
ACTIVE AS THIS WINTER HAS BEEN ALREADY...THIS IS A FEATURE WE
REALLY HAVE NOT HAD TO DEAL WITH -- YET.

CAD WEDGES COMPLICATE THINGS...LARGELY BECAUSE THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE BEST RESOLUTION TO DEAL WITH THEIR LARGELY
MESOSCALE AFFECTS (ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS). TAKING THE 12Z
RUN MODEL OUTPUT AT FACE VALUE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE ONLY A 3-4 DEGREES F ABOVE FREEZING. THAT DOESN`T LEAVE A
LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM FOR MODELS THAT POTENTIALLY CAN`T RESOLVE THE
COLDNESS OF A CAD WEDGE COMING INTO EAST ALABAMA. FOR THIS
REASON...I HAVE INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN (ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN) FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LOW CHANCE ENDEAVOR AT THIS POINT...BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT
IF COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES OCCUR.


----------



## StriperAddict

So we _can't_ bank on the frozen precip for Tuesday...  

at least, 

not yet


----------



## Fro1911nut

Glen Burns is already talking about freezing rain for Monday. I say this time around they panic and mash all the red buttons and the DOT starts dumping salt Sat night


----------



## deermeat270

Fro1911nut said:


> Glen Burns is already talking about freezing rain for Monday. I say this time around they panic and mash all the red buttons and the DOT starts dumping salt Sat night



That means a cold rain.


----------



## Greene728

Dont know about yall but im bout ready for spring time!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deermeat270 said:


> That means a cold rain.


 
My wife ordered a sled for my kid during the last event. It should be here by friday. Murphy's Law dictates that it will result in a cold rain


----------



## deermeat270

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My wife ordered a sled for my kid during the last event. It should be here by friday. Murphy's Law dictates that it will result in a cold rain



Good Idea on the sled.  Ace hardware had them last time, but sold out before we got there.  I may check to see if they have more in stock tomorrow.

Surely if I buy one it wont snow.


----------



## Matt.M

That reminds me to replace the sled my son broke.  And by son, I mean myself bombing down the neighbors hill into their lawn furniture.  Shockingly, Ace was out of them last Wednesday.


----------



## leroy

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My wife ordered a sled for my kid during the last event. It should be here by friday. Murphy's Law dictates that it will result in a cold rain



did same, maby they'll get here before then and then again probably wont snow again for 2 yrs


----------



## Resica

Should I send my aunt back home with a bunch of sleds? She'll be back in Ga. next weekend.


----------



## georgia357

UBER-DIESEL said:


> If this snow and ice keep coming, I'm jumping in my camper and heading to the Keys!!!!



Nice looking camper you've got there, Uber.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

georgia357 said:


> Nice looking camper you've got there, Uber.



Thanks! Some of us rednecks like to go in _STYLE_


----------



## beginnersluck

DDD is right on the money with his calls.  Let's see about this next round!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

UBER-DIESEL said:


> Thanks! Some of us rednecks like to go in _STYLE_


 
Sweet, is that the 911 Carrera 4S camper package?


----------



## todd03blown

Any more updates on what might be heading our way in GA for snow/ice?


----------



## ryano

calling for up to an inch tonight into tomorrow morning from here in Pickens county north.

do you guys put any stock into that ?


----------



## mountainpass

Ryan I don't believe much will stick here....although there's still snow laying around in the leaves here....keep your eye on monday night.


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD... (not Triple D, or D-D-D... but spoken as 3-D in my wee brain)... you have been rather quiet since yesterday afternoon, would you care to share your latest interpretation of the most updated models?


----------



## todd03blown

FlyDawg72 said:


> DDD... (not Triple D, or D-D-D... but spoken as 3-D in my wee brain)... you have been rather quiet since yesterday afternoon, would you care to share your latest interpretation of the most updated models?



Pretty please with sugar on top and a cherry


----------



## FlyDawg72

todd03blown said:


> Pretty please with sugar on top and a cherry



...dude... those ribs look SOOOO good. Fatboy needs some GRUB!


----------



## Fro1911nut

34 am est thu jan 20 2011

this hazardous weather outlook is for north and central georgia.

.day one...today and tonight
light accumulations of snow possible in north georgia tonight.

.synopsis...
Weak high pressure across the southeast u.s. Today will shift east
today. A strong upper disturbance and associated arctic cold front
will sweep through the area tonight bringing a brief period of
light snow to much of north georgia. The precipitation will move
out of the area by daybreak friday.

.primary hazards...
The primary hazard will be snow accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch
north of a line from summerville...to dawsonville...to cleveland
between 10 pm est this evening and 7 am est friday morning. The
greater accumulations of snow are expected in the northeast
mountains. With temperatures expected to drop well below freezing
after midnight in these areas...roads may become hazardous.

.discussion...
A strong upper disturbance and associated arctic cold front will
quickly sweep from the central plains into the southeast by
tonight. Only limited moisture will be available. However...upper
dynamics with this system are very strong and will thus support at
least light precipitation. Although initial low-level atmospheric
profiles support rain...cold arctic air will quickly sweep into
the area before the precipitation has completely moved east of the
region. Although most locations will only see 1/2 inch or less of
snow...accumulations around 1 inch will be possible in the
northeast mountains.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday
sleet and snow will be possible across much of north georgia
monday afternoon through early tuesday. Hazardous travel
conditions will be possible and persons planning travel during
this period should monitor later forecasts carefully.
Otherwise...hazardous weather is not expected through the period
at this time.

.spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested but spotters in north georgia are
encouraged to submit reports of snow accumulation to the national weather
service through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

$$

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT H5 TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP.
LOOKING AT THE QPF...ALL PRECIP...PER GFS AND NAM...WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTH OF AN ATL/AHN LINE. THE ECMWF AND SREF ARE THE ONLY MODELS
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WITH A WEAKENING SYSTEM
FEEL A GOOD COMPROMISE IS NEEDED AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...ALL
MODELS SUGGEST NORTH OF ATL/AHN THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW...FROM
ATL/AHN SOUTHWARD TO CSG/MCN...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN...SWITCHING OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF ATL/AHN...ALL MODELS SUGGEST
LESS THAN A HALF INCH TONIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM
THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SPS AND MENTION UP TO 1 INCH AS THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT RECEIVES AN INCH...MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THE PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED. STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAKE IT WINDY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE QUICK MOVING
AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY...JUST A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE
GENERAL SOLUTION IS ABOUT THE SAME. BOTH DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT WEDGE
OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP AND BOTH BRING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER BY 12 TO 18
HOURS WITH THE GFS BEING THE EARLIEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
WOULD INDICATE THE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ATL AND AHN INCLUDED WITH RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS FOR TIMING...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE ON THE
ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT COLD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.


----------



## bigox911

12z Euro is a might interesting


----------



## Paymaster

bigox911 said:


> 12z Euro is a might interesting


----------



## todd03blown

bigox911 said:


> 12z Euro is a might interesting



dang don't leave us hanging!! all my neighbors are asking me for updates based on the last storm that hit and how accurate you all were


----------



## bigox911

A Lot of variation in the timing right now between the models, but it showed a couple to 3 inches for I-20 N.  Not as much moisture as the last storm by far, but it's starting to look like 1-3" of snow falling and ending in freezing rain/sleet/rain or some mix of that may not be too far fetched for the north metro and points North and especially north and east.  Reason I say especially north and east is that this event is going to rely a lot on Cold Air Damming or CAD and that favors the NE portions of the state.  Still a ways out though and as always things can change


----------



## blondiega1

Ya'll getting me all excited again!
I've been lurking for a while now.
Watching what DDD and Miguel and BigOx have to say about the weather.
Ya'll are becoming quite the celebrities on other boards.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Bondiega1, that's why I am here.  I just had to come check out the REAL weathermen.


----------



## blondiega1

fitfabandfree said:


> Bondiega1, that's why I am here.  I just had to come check out the REAL weathermen.



HA!!!
A lot of us from that board are checking in over here now for the weather updates!


----------



## Jeff Raines

blondiega1 said:


> Ya'll getting me all excited again!
> I've been lurking for a while now.
> Watching what DDD and Miguel and BigOx have to say about the weather.
> Ya'll are becoming quite the celebrities on other boards.





fitfabandfree said:


> Bondiega1, that's why I am here.  I just had to come check out the REAL weathermen.



Just make your several posts a day on pcom so pubby will continue to let me post the links


----------



## mountainpass

blondiega1 said:
			
		

> Ya'll are becoming quite the celebrities on other boards.



What boards?


----------



## Jeff Raines

mountainpass said:


> What boards?



They are just referring to local community forums.Such as 
www.paulding.com


back to topic


----------



## blondiega1

Jeff Raines said:


> Just make your several posts a day on pcom so pubby will continue to let me post the links


----------



## fitfabandfree

I am staying away from that particular board.  I got a virus attack from them.  I'm hanging on a different one now.


----------



## fitfabandfree

But with many of the same people.


----------



## Naturegirl

Hey I recoginze some folks here.  Jeff, you gave away the secret!!  LOL 

We could have looked so smart.


----------



## Jranger

I lurk over at Pcom once in a while...


----------



## todd03blown

bigox911 said:


> A Lot of variation in the timing right now between the models, but it showed a couple to 3 inches for I-20 N.  Not as much moisture as the last storm by far, but it's starting to look like 1-3" of snow falling and ending in freezing rain/sleet/rain or some mix of that may not be too far fetched for the north metro and points North and especially north and east.  Reason I say especially north and east is that this event is going to rely a lot on Cold Air Damming or CAD and that favors the NE portions of the state.  Still a ways out though and as always things can change



Thanks for the latest


----------



## Money man

blondiega1 said:


> Ya'll getting me all excited again!
> I've been lurking for a while now.
> Watching what DDD and Miguel and BigOx have to say about the weather.
> Ya'll are becoming quite the celebrities on other boards.



Hey Blondie, welcome to Woody's. I would just like to thank you for using that cute little puppy as your avatar since you are a self described beautiful blond and married. 

Some of us were just discussing i another thread, how difficult it is for us married guys to surf the forum with all these guys using pictures of hot wimmins as their avatars. We get tired of trying to convince our wives that the person we are chatting with is not the person in the picture. 

On a side note....

The weather gurus have a fan club. Whodathunkit.


----------



## blondiega1

Money man said:


> Hey Blondie, welcome to Woody's. I would just like to thank you for using that cute little puppy as your avatar since you are a self described beautiful blond and married.
> 
> Some of us were just discussing i another thread, how difficult it is for us married guys to surf the forum with all these guys using pictures of hot wimmins as their avatars. We get tired of trying to convince our wives that the person we are chatting with is not the person in the picture.
> 
> On a side note....
> 
> The weather gurus have a fan club. Whodathunkit.



Somebody's been checking me out.  I feel so.....flattered!

That's my 3 mth old chocolate Lab puppy. Her name is Coco Bean. (we just call her Coco)
Ain't she PRETTY!

I'm just here for the weather updates!


----------



## GA DAWG

DDD,I need a update! Folks are asking me what my weather people are saying


----------



## Money man

blondiega1 said:


> Somebody's been checking me out.  I feel so.....flattered!
> 
> That's my 3 mth old chocolate Lab puppy. Her name is Coco Bean. (we just call her Coco)
> Ain't she PRETTY!
> 
> I'm just here for the weather updates!



Yeah, there is an automated PM system that goes out whenever a new WOW (Women of Woody's) joins the forum as a member. You just have to ask Hooked On quack for the password. 

Yep, COCO is a beauty, gotta love those labs.


----------



## FlyDawg72

Money man said:


> WOW (Women of Woody's)


----------



## bigox911

Kirk Mellish has a new blog post talking about the craziness

http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin'

In regards to watching out for winter weather, my wife has come to follow the post by DDD, Miguel and Bigox more so than the local news puppets.  She asked me today if DDD got his screen name by being associated with Fox 5 news (Dedicated, Determined & Dependable).    Though I thought it was rather funny, I had to tell her that I didn't think there was any association there.


----------



## whitetaco02

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> In regards to watching out for winter weather, my wife has come to follow the post by DDD, Miguel and Bigox more so than the local news puppets.  She asked me today if DDD got his screen name by being associated with Fox 5 news (Dedicated, Determined & Dependable).    Though I thought it was rather funny, I had to tell her that I didn't think there was any association there.



He used to be Dacula Deer Dropper.....


----------



## fitfabandfree

So they shortened it to DDD, kinda like they call me FFF on the other site?  lol


----------



## mewabbithunter

Where's DDD!


----------



## fitfabandfree

That's what we all want to know.  We were told how great and reliable he is, and came over here just to see it for ourselves, and he has been MIA all day.


----------



## nickel back

mewabbithunter said:


> Where's DDD!



watching model runs probably


----------



## Resica

fitfabandfree said:


> That's what we all want to know.  We were told how great and reliable he is, and came over here just to see it for ourselves, and he has been MIA all day.



Relax buddy.


----------



## Fro1911nut

.prev discussion... /issued 355 pm est thu jan 20 2011/

short term /tonight through saturday night/...
Models continue to show a weak cold front pushing across the
county warning area tonight. Some differences continue in the
amount of precip/qpf associated with the front as it moves across
our area. Gfs continues to be the most aggressive with light qpf
across much of the area overnight...while the nam keeps it mainly
across north georgia. Will continue previous forecast trend with
good chance to likely pops north...to chance/slight chance central
sections. Thicknesses continue to support a wintry mix across
north georgia...with mainly rain central. However...could see a
little snow mixed in with the rain as far south as lagrange to
washington before precip ends early friday. Across the extreme
north... Mainly snow is expected...especially after midnight.
Light accumulations expected and will continue winter weather
advisory for the area generally north of a rome to cleveland
line... Where snow accumulations up to an inch possible. Models
show a weak impulse skirting across the tennessee valley region
late friday night/early saturday and may see a few flurries
extreme northern counties. Elsewhere...anticipate only varying
amounts of clouds. Cold through the period with mav/met guidance
showing temps below normal levels. See little reason to differ.

Long term /sunday through thursday/...
Next storm system on tap to affect the county warning area
monday/tuesday time frame. Still looking like a wintry mix for
much of north georgia...and rain central sections. Extended progs
indicating another system possibly affecting mainly north georgia
thursday. Below normal temps look in line for much of the period.


----------



## Money man

fitfabandfree said:


> That's what we all want to know.  We were told how great and reliable he is, and came over here just to see it for ourselves, and he has been MIA all day.



He has a day job.  It pays better than GON.


----------



## Fro1911nut

Area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
552 pm cst thu jan 20 2011

.update...aviation discussion.

&&

.discussion...

Winter in the south...gotta love it. Focusing on the short
term...cold front currently on the northwestern doorstep of the cwa
and will be moving through during the evening hours. Precipitation
is beginning to develop on the southern end of the front and will
slide into the area close to 5 pm in the northwest...barely making
the chance rainfall in the northwest. Precipitation in front of the
front is rain...with snow behind the front and north of the i-40
corridor.

As the front approaches the vertical motions actually decrease as
the moisture moves into the area. This will allow the precipitation
to dry up some as the front moves through. So why is this...well two
reasons. First the main surface lows that the front is associated
with will slide east northeast away from the area. This will take
the dynamics and slide them further north. Second will be the
development of the gulf low. This low is expected to slide south and
east away from the area as well. Which is good. This would put the
southeast is a zone of subsidence and really reduce the amount of
precipitation expected across the area this evening and is reflected
in the latest update.

So what is the bottom line...well look for rainfall to work into the
northwest between 4 and 5 pm...then switching to rain/snow by 7 pm.
The rain snow line will move east and then slide south as the night
progresses. The snow will remain fairly light with less than a
quarter of an inch as a whole. Will need to continue to monitor any
bands that may develop...but this would be mesoscale in nature. The
rain snow line may work as far south as a line from livingston to
wedowee. The highest amounts will be in the northwest and higher
elevation in the far northeast. Expecting less than a quarter of
inch of snow in our cwa with slightly higher totals further north.
Generally just a dusting for areas south of a vernon to centre line.
Most of the precipitation will be dissipating by midnight with just
some lingering flurries through 3 am across the north.

High pressure slides in friday...with another shortwave on saturday.
Upward vertical motion associated with qg forcing will be strong with
this shortwave but the airmass will remain dry as this first cold
front will cut off the moisture from the gulf of mexico. Did
increase sky cover during the day saturday...but continued with the
dry forecast.

We get into the third shortwave and potentially another winter event
sometime monday through tuesday. The problem here is two fold.
Models are way off with overall timing of the system causing
confidence issues with the forecast and overall precipitation
forecast. This also causes headaches with the temperatures in the
area as well. The gfs is a good 12 to 18 hours ahead of the 12z euro
this afternoon. Not too big of a detail in normal conditions...but
causes quite a havoc with this forecast. If the isentropic lift can
work in as early as the gfs shows and the cad wedge that will be in
place monday is still in place then there will be a shot at some
freezing rain across the northeast on monday morning. Only problem
here is that the gfs output has temperatures warming after midnight
and would be above freezing by the time the rain works in. Most of
this rain would be associated with the cold front working through
and does not generate a gulf low until the front is through.

The euro is slower and focuses more on the development of the gulf
low monday night/tuesday morning producing snow for the northern
half of the area. With national guidance trending toward the euro
will stick with the current timing of the snow/rain for tuesday
morning and back off on pops for monday night. Also lowered
temperatures a touch monday night as well. Still quite a bit of
timing issues to be worked out for the system. Behind this system
high pressure works back in. Stay tuned for changes over the next
few days.


----------



## DDD

Man... Ya'll missed me.  

We gots lots and lots to talk about


----------



## shakey gizzard

fitfabandfree said:


> That's what we all want to know.  We were told how great and reliable he is, and came over here just to see it for ourselves, and he has been MIA all day.


No pushin or its back of the line!Wez got guns up in here!


----------



## SnowHunter

DDD said:


> Man... Ya'll missed me.
> 
> We gots lots and lots to talk about


----------



## fitfabandfree

Resica said:


> Relax buddy.



I'm just playing, of course.  It's kinda what I do.  Don't take me seriously. 

I gotta remember I'm new here and not many people here know me.


----------



## DDD

Alright, lets get to it.

Tonight looks like a whole lot of nothing.  Maybe an inch in the mountains, the models are not impressive although the radar looks so-so.

That is not the story though... as I have  been saying all week... the 24-25th looks to be the story followed by the 28-29th.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Money man said:


> He has a day job.  It pays better than GON.



That's exactly where I told someone he probably was.


----------



## fitfabandfree

shakey gizzard said:


> No pushin or its back of the line!Wez got guns up in here!


Rut roh!


----------



## fitfabandfree

DDD said:


> Alright, lets get to it.
> 
> Tonight looks like a whole lot of nothing.  Maybe an inch in the mountains, the models are not impressive although the radar looks so-so.
> 
> That is not the story though... as I have  been saying all week... the 24-25th looks to be the story followed by the 28-29th.



Elaborate please.  Give us the rest of the story.  Do we go out and buy sleds or ice melt, and do we run to get our bread and milk?


----------



## DDD

First of all, I have been busy at work and like someone pointed out... I do have to work.  LOL.  

Alright, the EURO, the Canadian, and the GFS are all starting to get in on the idea of snow, not ice here.  Quite frankly it is 2 weeks ago all over again.  Not quite 6-8 inches, more like 4-6.  At least the way it looks right now.

I will say that the EURO and GFS have both trended colder and wetter.  All of the models are having a hard time resolving the solution.  The set up is very odd due to all the energy coming from the west, but the longer time goes, the more it is getting the idea.

I have liked the chances for the 24-25th due to a couple of things.  The cold up in Canada, the placements of the High Pressures spots, the surface low placement coming out of the West and diving south to tap the gulf.  Now it looks like it might just play out.  We are still 4-5 days out, but all models have winter weather on the map.

Also, they all have another just as potent storm on Friday and Saturday.  More to that later, but lets not even go into what it shows beyond that.

One thing I would do this weekend.  Get more firewood.

I will try and type more tonight or tomorrow morning.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Thank you.  I must say, I hope you're wrong this time.  LOL


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> First of all, I have been busy at work and like someone pointed out... I do have to work. LOL.
> 
> Alright, the EURO, the Canadian, and the GFS are all starting to get in on the idea of snow, not ice here. Quite frankly it is 2 weeks ago all over again. Not quite 6-8 inches, more like 4-6. At least the way it looks right now.
> 
> I will say that the EURO and GFS have both trended colder and wetter. All of the models are having a hard time resolving the solution. The set up is very odd due to all the energy coming from the west, but the longer time goes, the more it is getting the idea.
> 
> I have liked the chances for the 24-25th due to a couple of things. The cold up in Canada, the placements of the High Pressures spots, the surface low placement coming out of the West and diving south to tap the gulf. Now it looks like it might just play out. We are still 4-5 days out, but all models have winter weather on the map.
> 
> Also, they all have another just as potent storm on Friday and Saturday. More to that later, but lets not even go into what it shows beyond that.
> 
> One thing I would do this weekend. Get more firewood.
> 
> I will try and type more tonight or tomorrow morning.


 
I definitely like how deep the GFS is bringing the cold into Ga over the prior runs.

I just got approval from the head honcho's on here to share this info with you guys and gals, so if you don't have it yet, this is where we hash this stuff out;

http://georgia-weather.proboards.com/index.cgi


----------



## DDD

fitfabandfree said:


> Thank you.  I must say, I hope you're wrong this time.  LOL



You know I have heard that a lot. Now its almost like people are rooting for me to be wrong.


----------



## slip

how far south do you expect to see anything on the 24-25th?

if i end up on the ice line again, then no thanks.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I definitely like how deep the GFS is bringing the cold into Ga over the prior runs.
> 
> I just got approval from the head honcho's on here to share this info with you guys and gals, so if you don't have it yet, this is where we hash this stuff out;
> 
> http://georgia-weather.proboards.com/index.cgi



MC, I am going to go into great detail over there tonight.  

Maps from the GFS and EURO from this afternoon.  For sure I will be staying up this weekend to watch runs of the EURO at night.

I will continue to write summaries over here for the GON folk.


----------



## DDD

slip said:


> how far south do you expect to see anything on the 24-25th?
> 
> if i end up on the ice line again, then no thanks.



Great Question.

Right now I don't think this one has the cold as far south.  I think this is more of I-20 northward event, but the GFS and the EURO have gotten colder and farther south with every run.  They are starting to get a hold on it.

Who knows how far south it comes??  It still has over running moisture out of the gulf so that freezing line will come back north but not too far due to evaporational cooling and cooling of the column.  Sound familar?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Whenever ya'll get a chance just go head and post up the IMBY totals!


----------



## nickel back

slip said:


> how far south do you expect to see anything on the 24-25th?
> 
> if i end up on the ice line again, then no thanks.



Slip you should know we are on the south end of a north bound mule......


----------



## DDD

shakey gizzard said:


> Whenever ya'll get a chance just go head and post up the IMBY totals!



I will not even go there yet.  You can not count on moisture amounts at this point.

I am just glad to see the pattern shift from an ice event to snow event.

If you read the NWS discusion pages from Birmingham, Huntsville, Atlanta, Greenville, Raleigh... it's real.  Let's hope the DOT and NWS offices get ahead of this thing if it blows up like I think it might.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> MC, I am going to go into great detail over there tonight.
> 
> Maps from the GFS and EURO from this afternoon. For sure I will be staying up this weekend to watch runs of the EURO at night.
> 
> I will continue to write summaries over here for the GON folk.


 
I appreciate that. I just looked at the 18z runs and the moisture isnt there on the GFS that it had on the 12z. I expect all of this to moderate over the next two days.


----------



## Fro1911nut

DDD said:


> Let's hope the DOT and NWS offices get ahead of this thing if it blows up like I think it might.



The ? I thought about is the State DOT dumped ALOT of what they had last week....how much do they have left? I say they start dumping salt Sunday night


----------



## slip

DDD said:


> Great Question.
> 
> Right now I don't think this one has the cold as far south.  I think this is more of I-20 northward event, but the GFS and the EURO have gotten colder and farther south with every run.  They are starting to get a hold on it.
> 
> Who knows how far south it comes??  It still has over running moisture out of the gulf so that freezing line will come back north but not too far due to evaporational cooling and cooling of the column.  Sound familar?


thanks man.


nickel back said:


> Slip you should know we are on the south end of a north bound mule......


always!


Fro1911nut said:


> The ? I thought about is the State DOT dumped ALOT of what they had last week....how much do they have left? I say they start dumping salt Sunday night



i thought the same thing "hope we didnt use everything we've got"


----------



## deerhunter75

Hey Slip it sounds like we might be left out of the snow again...


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> First of all, I have been busy at work and like someone pointed out... I do have to work.  LOL.
> 
> Alright, the EURO, the Canadian, and the GFS are all starting to get in on the idea of snow, not ice here.  Quite frankly it is 2 weeks ago all over again.  Not quite 6-8 inches, more like 4-6.  At least the way it looks right now.
> 
> I will say that the EURO and GFS have both trended colder and wetter.  All of the models are having a hard time resolving the solution.  The set up is very odd due to all the energy coming from the west, but the longer time goes, the more it is getting the idea.
> 
> I have liked the chances for the 24-25th due to a couple of things.  The cold up in Canada, the placements of the High Pressures spots, the surface low placement coming out of the West and diving south to tap the gulf.  Now it looks like it might just play out.  We are still 4-5 days out, but all models have winter weather on the map.
> 
> Also, they all have another just as potent storm on Friday and Saturday.  More to that later, but lets not even go into what it shows beyond that.
> 
> One thing I would do this weekend.  Get more firewood.
> 
> I will try and type more tonight or tomorrow morning.




Thanks for the update DDD... I never doubted you for a minute!! Gotta HATE that commute back to Dacula from wherever it is you work. You have my sympathies Sir.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

FlyDawg72 said:


> Thanks for the update DDD... I never doubted you for a minute!! Gotta HATE that commute back to Dacula from wherever it is you work. You have my sympathies Sir.


 
He works in Chattanooga. Makes the drive everyday and loves it..


----------



## slip

deerhunter75 said:


> Hey Slip it sounds like we might be left out of the snow again...



looks that way, but it aint over til the fat lady sings...


----------



## mountainpass

> He works in Chattanooga. Makes the drive everyday and loves it..


Hey don't laugh, I tell my family if they are flying somewhere check Chattanooga Airport first. I had much rather go to the Chattanooga Airport rather than Hartsfield any day.


----------



## DDD

Today it was Dacula, to Kennesaw, to McDonough, to Kennesaw back to Dacula.  What fun!  and no I don't drive for a living.  LOL!


----------



## DRB1313

DDD,

At this point, What do you think the percentage is that we will get significant winter weather on 24th/25th and then for 28th/29th


----------



## DDD

DRB1313 said:


> DDD,
> 
> At this point, What do you think the percentage is that we will get significant winter weather on 24th/25th and then for 28th/29th



Great question.

I will say north of I-20, 60% and on the 28/29th I would say 10%.  It is just way too far out to have any confidence right now.


----------



## DRB1313

Thanks! I was trying to predict what your answer would be
I nailed the first one, but failed miserably on the second.


----------



## spotman

DDD said:


> Great question.
> 
> I will say north of I-20, 60% and on the 28/29th I would say 10%.  It is just way too far out to have any confidence right now.



Bring it just a little further south ..Down to Coweta please


----------



## bigox911

DRB1313 said:


> Thanks! I was trying to predict what your answer would be
> I nailed the first one, but failed miserably on the second.



Just curious...did you miss high or low??


----------



## DRB1313

bigox911 said:


> Just curious...did you miss high or low??



I was thinking 60% and 50%.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Snowing up on the mountain right now.  Little bitty flakes, got a dusting in the last 20 mins.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

snowing oh so lightly in Winder as I type.


----------



## biggtruxx

Nothing in Monroe as of yet


----------



## DDD

mrs. hornet22 said:


> snowing oh so lightly in Winder as I type.



You suuuurrreeee?  It's 40.7 over here on this side of the hill.


----------



## Buck

40° here in North Cobb.  Something tells me snow is a long way off for these parts, if any...


----------



## biggtruxx

DDD.... I am really Stoked about the 24th/25th... I cant wait to see how this pans out. Of course it will put me behind at work and I will be playing catchup for another few days as I have did the last week but it's worth it. My question for you is........ Do you think we will be in the same situation just less day's effected?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> snowing oh so lightly in Winder as I type.


 
Selsen Blue is good for that ya' know..


----------



## Fro1911nut

Ol pink tie on 5 just said it aint going to do anything here next week lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Fro1911nut said:


> Ol pink tie on 5 just said it aint going to do anything here next week lol


 
You mean the one that talks with a lisp and hangs out in little five points?


----------



## biggtruxx

Yeah Ken Cook is a cook I believe that guy could cook up some good food..... but the weather not soooo much.


----------



## chevy85

great job guys keep it up. an thanks


----------



## bigox911

Fro1911nut said:


> Ol pink tie on 5 just said it aint going to do anything here next week lol



It was painful watching him try to explain how his vipir model was trying to update its forecast based on new data it had.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> You suuuurrreeee?  It's 40.7 over here on this side of the hill.



Yep. Went to take the trash out and looked up at the street light. It wasn't rain. It was blowing around. Just for a second.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

bigox911 said:


> It was painful watching him try to explain how his vipir model was trying to update its forecast based on new data it had.


 
Cause he didn't have a wizometer to help him...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Yep. Went to take the trash out and looked up at the street light. It wasn't rain. It was blowing around. Just for a second.


 
You haven't had your annual psych evaluation yet have you?


----------



## DDD

biggtruxx said:


> DDD.... I am really Stoked about the 24th/25th... I cant wait to see how this pans out. Of course it will put me behind at work and I will be playing catchup for another few days as I have did the last week but it's worth it. My question for you is........ Do you think we will be in the same situation just less day's effected?



No.  I think the same amount of days will be affected.  Very cold air falls in behind the system and the GFS is showing below freezing temps for 72+ hours after the snow falls.  Very similar to last week.

No one wants to hear this... but it is reality.

00Z GFS is running now.


----------



## whitetaco02

So are you talking ice this far south again or does it look like we are in the clear?


----------



## DDD

Right now I would say south GA is in the clear.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> No.  I think the same amount of days will be affected.  Very cold air falls in behind the system and the GFS is showing below freezing temps for 72+ hours after the snow falls.  Very similar to last week.
> 
> No one wants to hear this... but it is reality.
> 
> 00Z GFS is running now.



WOW just WOW!! This ATL area and the schools will go into a frenzy again if they are out 2-4 more days!!

More sleding is good though


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> Right now I would say south GA is in the clear.



What about Central GA?


----------



## slip

whitetaco02 said:


> What about Central GA?



we're out of luck too.


----------



## DDD

Look at where the freezing line is Saturday night / Sunday Morning.... ORLANDO!  Geeze.


----------



## DDD

Whoa Nelly!


----------



## bigox911




----------



## bigox911

Ok...this thing has to be smoking something...no freakin way it would be this nice






Someone pick me up off the floor


----------



## DDD




----------



## todd03blown

Nice, that has some nice accumulation written all over it!!


----------



## bigox911

Ok...I'm going to bed...must not stay up for euro...if I look at the qpf totals much longer, I'm gonna have to stay up again


----------



## southerngentleman

So DDD, what exactly are those runs saying??


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

bigox911 said:


> Ok...I'm going to bed...must not stay up for euro...if I look at the qpf totals much longer, I'm gonna have to stay up again


Looks like it's going to be really wet here.........Or really icy??


----------



## DDD

southerngentleman said:


> So DDD, what exactly are those runs saying??[/QUOTE
> You would be looking at 12" of snow in Atlanta, 12" in Macon and 16" in Athens.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> southerngentleman said:
> 
> 
> 
> So DDD, what exactly are those runs saying??[/QUOTE
> You would be looking at 12" of snow in Atlanta, 12" in Macon and 16" in Athens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dangit man!!
Click to expand...


----------



## jcountry

I just don't know about this one.....  All the forecast sites I have found say that temps are going to be much warmer for the daily highs than the last system.

The thing that made the last one so bad was the fact that there were a couple of days where we weren't above freezing at all, and then a couple more where it was only for a couple of hours.

Wunderground and intellicast are calling for highs in the low to mid 40s Mon and Tues.   Also, the lows are only right around 30.   Unless they are totally off base, I just don't see this one coming together like the last one.  It ain't looking nearly as cold.

-I have been wrong many times before, though...  Just a gut feeling, DDD is probably a lot closer to the actual event than I will be.


----------



## Jacketfan89

All of the forecast sites always heir towards higher temps. 5 days out from the previous storm they were showing the same thing...but it seems like when that moisture comes in and the upper atmosphere gets enough push from the extreme cold in the Midwest, we'll get that heavy snow again which really pushes temps down.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> southerngentleman said:
> 
> 
> 
> So DDD, what exactly are those runs saying??[/QUOTE
> You would be looking at 12" of snow in Atlanta, 12" in Macon and 16" in Athens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> well that sure would be fun....not holding my breth thou,all these winter storms seam to take a turn to the north
Click to expand...


----------



## BoozerJeff

DDD said:


> southerngentleman said:
> 
> 
> 
> So DDD, what exactly are those runs saying??[/QUOTE
> You would be looking at 12" of snow in Atlanta, 12" in Macon and 16" in Athens.
Click to expand...


----------



## deermeat270

NOAA has changed the forecast to all rain.  Doesn't look like it going to be cold enough.


----------



## DDD

Great weather blog from Matthew East this morning for those that have his site book marked.

All 3 major models have a snow bomb for Georgia, SC and NC.  (EURO, GFS and Canadian)

All 3 have slowed and strengthened the storm.  It is very 1993ish.  I know many people throw that storm around but there are 3 pieces of energy that are going to come together to form quite a unique situation if it plays out just right.

Again, much like the last storm, cold air is going to be well out in front of it really cooling surface temps down, not to mention the CAD wedge coming down the back side of the Apps from the high pressure up in the NE.

Tons of model runs to go, right now it looks like this would occur on Tuesday into Wednesday.  The system on Monday is still there, although very light in my opinion would still be glazing ice down to ATL and in the normal CAD areas.

Long Range modeling says, get used to the cold and the wet.  Snow and cold shots are still to come from now through March.  This winter is going to be described as a "hybrid" winter for sure.

I heard a report on CNN that all this winter weather is due to extreme shifts in the atmosphere due to global warming.  And my question is this, if our winter was very mild and warm as "they" predicted, would they also claim that was because of global warming?  You think about it.  No matter what the weather does... warm or cold, it's all global warming.  That my friends, is the power of government.  Love it.

Today is somewhat key in my mind.  The EURO has been king 5 days out.  Seems whatever the EURO is smoking at 5 days, you better pay attention.  Inside of 5 days I lose confidence in the details that the EURO spits out.  At 3-1 days out I like the trends of the GFS.  The NAM has actually been good at the 3 day range as well for handling moisture amounts.


----------



## DDD

deermeat270 said:


> NOAA has changed the forecast to all rain.  Doesn't look like it going to be cold enough.





One day... one day you will listen... not sure when that will be... but one day.


----------



## Bitteroot

maps... I need more maps.....


----------



## blondiega1

Thanks for all the updates and reader digest versions for us weather junkies!
I'm anxiously watching to see how this all pans out!


----------



## Nicodemus

D, anything down here in the swamp I need to be particular about?


----------



## todd03blown

Thanks DDD for the update...WOW 1993 was bad!  I was in Chattanooga (actually Signal Mtn) as we got 24" of snow!!


----------



## jsullivan03

I used to love snow.  Now, I HATE SNOW!   I can't deal with being cooped up in apartment for another week!!!!


----------



## OutFishHim

jsullivan03 said:


> I used to love snow.  Now, I HATE SNOW!   I can't deal with being cooped up in apartment for another week!!!!



I'm right there with ya Jamie!  (except not in your apartment  )

I can't afford to miss any more work.  And my family drove me crazy last time!


----------



## K80

jsullivan03 said:


> I used to love snow.  Now, I HATE SNOW!   I can't deal with being cooped up in apartment for another week!!!!



I can deal with being cooped up but I can't deal with the high heating bills on a regular basis.


----------



## DDD

Nicodemus said:


> D, anything down here in the swamp I need to be particular about?



Not right now Nic.  

Right now this in my mind is a Macon northward event and that might be stretching it.  If the marriage of the 3 pieces of energy were to come more SW or possibly just West, then I might find myself looking farther south.

There is a lot of time and models to go.  This solution of "bombing" just got picked up last night by all the models so some are probably not even buying into it yet.  I heard no mention of it by Kirk Melish this morning at all.  He is still hyping the ice on Monday. Which is probably not a bad idea give that it will happen Monday morning and might be on messy commute down I-85 and I-20 on the East side of ATL.


----------



## DDD

Ya'll better get used to the high heating bills and missing some more work.  This winter is far from over.  Not even close if the long range modeling is even remotely close to being right.


----------



## FlyDawg72

jsullivan03 said:


> I used to love snow.  Now, I HATE SNOW!   I can't deal with being cooped up in apartment for another week!!!!



Hide your kids, hide your wife... and hide your husbands TOO!!! Cuz it's snowin' on e'erbody up in here!


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Not right now Nic.
> 
> Right now this in my mind is a Macon northward event and that might be stretching it.  If the marriage of the 3 pieces of energy were to come more SW or possibly just West, then I might find myself looking farther south.
> 
> There is a lot of time and models to go.  This solution of "bombing" just got picked up last night by all the models so some are probably not even buying into it yet.  I heard no mention of it by Kirk Melish this morning at all.  He is still hyping the ice on Monday. Which is probably not a bad idea give that it will happen Monday morning and might be on messy commute down I-85 and I-20 on the East side of ATL.





Thank you kindly. Got all I need, but I`ll be watchin`. You`re doin` good.


----------



## Krickit

jsullivan03 said:


> I used to love snow.  Now, I HATE SNOW!   I can't deal with being cooped up in apartment for another week!!!!





FlyDawg72 said:


> Hide your kids, hide your wife... and hide your husbands TOO!!! Cuz it's snowin' on e'erbody up in here!



Y'all are just nuts!!  I will agree with ya though...  
Can we please just have some sun and warmer days?  If the answer is no, then we're definitely moving to Florida ASAP!!


----------



## Matt.M

FlyDawg72 said:


> Hide your kids, hide your wife... and hide your husbands TOO!!! Cuz it's snowin' on e'erbody up in here!



Thanks.  Now I have to clean my monitor from laughing.


----------



## DDD

So what is the key to this?  The track of the low pressure.

If the Low tracks the same way along the Florida coast and up the Eastern Coast, we are in business.

If it comes more inland we are cold and rain.

If it goes out into the gulf (more south) Central GA will see more snow than south GA.  

A lot remains to be seen.


----------



## Jeff C.

DDD said:


> So what is the key to this?  The track of the low pressure.
> 
> If the Low tracks the same way along the Florida coast and up the Eastern Coast, we are in business.
> 
> If it comes more inland we are cold and rain.
> 
> If it goes out into the gulf (more south) Central GA will see more snow than south GA.
> 
> A lot remains to be seen.



You sure know how to capture an audience


----------



## ryano

as long as its gone by February 4th and no more comes along.

ive got a cruiseship to catch out of Tampa on February 5.

i never thought I would say this but after last week and spending this past Saturday in the Smoky Mountains, I am all snowed out.

im ready for some sunshine and 80 degree weather that Tampa and the Caribbean is getting!


----------



## FlyDawg72

ryano said:


> as long as its gone by February 4th and no more comes along.
> 
> ive got a cruiseship to catch out of Tampa on February 5.
> 
> i never thought I would say this but after last week and spending this past Saturday in the Smoky Mountains, I am all snowed out.
> 
> im ready for some sunshine and 80 degree weather that Tampa and the Caribbean is getting!



JSullivan and I are gonna pool our $ and drive to the Keys to flyfish for Bones, Reds and Tarpon... Who else is coming with us?


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> So what is the key to this?  The track of the low pressure.
> 
> If the Low tracks the same way along the Florida coast and up the Eastern Coast, we are in business.
> 
> If it comes more inland we are cold and rain.
> 
> If it goes out into the gulf (more south) Central GA will see more snow than south GA.
> 
> A lot remains to be seen.




   Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble. Cool it with a baboon's blood, Then the charm is firm and good.


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> Not right now Nic.
> 
> Right now this in my mind is a Macon northward event and that might be stretching it.  If the marriage of the 3 pieces of energy were to come more SW or possibly just West, then I might find myself looking farther south.
> 
> There is a lot of time and models to go.  This solution of "bombing" just got picked up last night by all the models so some are probably not even buying into it yet.  I heard no mention of it by Kirk Melish this morning at all.  He is still hyping the ice on Monday. Which is probably not a bad idea give that it will happen Monday morning and might be on messy commute down I-85 and I-20 on the East side of ATL.




I think he read this post because he was on the air right before I walked in to the office and he said that the models were "showing a bomb now for somebody" so he at least threw the potential out there.  

DDD...are you gonna be rocking this all weekend?


----------



## DouglasB.

Jeeze.... I take a few days off and miss this? Come ON summer time. Cold weather is only good for me during hunting season. After that... pfft. 

So DDD, what are we looking at for the Newnan/PTC area? Should I go buy groceries, or can I hold off?


----------



## StriperAddict

DDD said:


> Ya'll better get used to the high heating bills and missing some more work. This winter is far from over. Not even close if the long range modeling is even remotely close to being right.


 
Long range model?

I prefer to look at this one (from Bakersfield, CA, get it? Long range model?? ) than see any more ice come our way!!


----------



## OutFishHim

bigox911 said:


> I think he read this post because he was on the air right before I walked in to the office and he said that the models were "showing a bomb now for somebody" so he at least threw the potential out there.
> 
> DDD...are you gonna be rocking this all weekend?



So which one of those cowboys is DDD?


----------



## ultramag

OutFishHim said:


> So which one of those cowboys is DDD?



DDD is the lead singer ..Thanks DDD..fine job this year on calling the weather


----------



## mountainpass

Melish...not sure when but maybe sometime one day it will be winter weather "SOMEWHERE" http://wsbradio.com/weather/index.html



> ***Potential for a big ticket significant winter storm SOMETIME in the late Monday into Wed. time frame SOMEWHERE in Georgia and/or adjacent states, it is a threat to be monitored but remember a potential threat is not a forecast, check updates here and on the radio all weekend into Monday, I work weekends***


----------



## bigox911

OutFishHim said:


> So which one of those cowboys is DDD?



The one with the shiny vest that can shake a leg


----------



## OutFishHim

bigox911 said:


> The one with the shiny vest that can shake a leg



Gotcha!  I wonder if he hunts in that camo too?


----------



## bigox911

OutFishHim said:


> Gotcha!  I wonder if he hunts in that camo too?



I think so...but he swaps his iphone out for the pack of cigarettes rolled up in his sleeve.


----------



## jcountry

DDD said:


> I heard a report on CNN that all this winter weather is due to extreme shifts in the atmosphere due to global warming.  And my question is this, if our winter was very mild and warm as "they" predicted, would they also claim that was because of global warming?  You think about it.  No matter what the weather does... warm or cold, it's all global warming.  That my friends, is the power of government.  Love it.



100% correct sir!  These clowns on TV know nothing about science..   And "manmade global warming," "climate change," or whatever they are calling it this week has absolutely nothing to do with science anyhow.  Politics has taken over this research, nothing but 100% politics.

-The sad fact is that most of the public is comprised of people who never read anything they don't have to.  I'll bet 80% of Americans have never even read one article in any science magazine-much less a book on any science-related subject in their adult lives.  Most people simply are not educated, not curious, and don't care.  People like that are easy to fool.


----------



## DDD

OutFishHim said:


> Gotcha!  I wonder if he hunts in that camo too?





You know the answer to this question.


----------



## DDD

bigox911 said:


> I think so...but he swaps his iphone out for the pack of cigarettes rolled up in his sleeve.



Dang.  That's not an iphone in his sleeve?


----------



## DDD

Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...

You kids ready for a repeat?


----------



## WickedKwik

DDD said:


> Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...
> 
> You kids ready for a repeat?



BRING IT


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...
> 
> You kids ready for a repeat?



Oh SNAP!!!


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> You kids ready for a repeat?



YEA!!!  What days?  My corporate office is moving Tuesday night so this is going to be fun.


----------



## Keebs

WickedKwik said:


> BRING IT


 LOVE the car in your avatar!!

ok, carry on!


----------



## huntinglady74

DDD i have enjoyed reading everything you've posted and you've been right so far but man..i'm begging ya please be wrong this time....I swear i can't be snowed in with my In-Laws for that amount of time..Hubby would have to hide all the guns in the house and all the knives!!!
I can handle my sweet disabled father in law but my almost blind mother in law will drive me nuts...


----------



## WickedKwik

Keebs said:


> LOVE the car in your avatar!!
> 
> ok, carry on!



Thanks Keebs


----------



## DDD

Matt.M said:


> YEA!!!  What days?  My corporate office is moving Tuesday night so this is going to be fun.



Matt,

IF this was to come to pass.  You guys need to move on Sunday.


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...
> 
> You kids ready for a repeat?



After relaying the above info to my boss, she informed me the company will be retaining several rooms at the hotel up the street for us to stay in   Apparently last week's fiasco included several customers who tried to WALK to our location and get some job materials.  

Now the discussion amongst the employees is who will be responsible for bringing "snow party" provisions


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...
> 
> You kids ready for a repeat?



Depends........repeat of last week or repeat of '93??

What are we in for??


----------



## jsullivan03

DDD said:


> Taking the latest NAM and what it shows at the 84 hour mark, if I take that combine it with the GFS and the EURO...
> 
> You kids ready for a repeat?


----------



## WoodsmanEd

huntinglady74 said:


> DDD i have enjoyed reading everything you've posted and you've been right so far but man..i'm begging ya please be wrong this time....I swear i can't be snowed in with my In-Laws for that amount of time..Hubby would have to hide all the guns in the house and all the knives!!!
> I can handle my sweet disabled father in law but my almost blind mother in law will drive me nuts...



It is ok DDD she would survive;  I would steal the Jeep and take the guns and go hunt some small game in the snow the wife but would have to


----------



## huntinglady74

WoodsmanEd said:


> It is ok DDD she would survive;  I would steal the Jeep and take the guns and go hunt some small game in the snow the wife but would have to



IN YOUR DREAMS LITTLE BOY!!!!


----------



## OutFishHim

bigox911 said:


> I think so...but he swaps his iphone out for the pack of cigarettes rolled up in his sleeve.



Dang...



DDD said:


> You know the answer to this question.


----------



## shakey gizzard

elfiii said:


> Negative ghostrider, the pattern is full.
> 
> Snow storms like this one are a once every 10-15 year event. Buying snow plows is a waste of money. I'll bet most of the people complaining about the "lack of action" by the ATL are all Yankees who moved down here like a hemmorhoid right after the Olympics.
> 
> The '83 storm shut the whole town down for a solid week - no power, water lines frozen, etc. etc.. None of us native Southerners started complaining until the likker stores started running low on inventory. We still had plenty of firewood saved back. Get your priorities in order!






Resica said:


> Until you get another one next month.


----------



## FlyDawg72

blondiega1 said:


> Some people are like slinkies.
> They're not really good for anything, but they're still fun to watch when you push them down the stairs.



I like the way you think... 

Coco is adorable by the way, my in-laws have a chocolate lab named Ely (they used to own an outfitter business in Minnesota) they are GREAT dogs. Looks like Coco gave you  some entertainment playing the snow last week.


----------



## todd03blown

This thread is getting a lot viewers today...up to 50 now


----------



## FlyDawg72

todd03blown said:


> This thread is getting a lot viewers today...up to 50 now



2 weeks ago we were up to 137 (???) at one point... can't remember the exact number.


----------



## DDD

12ZGFS says... "What storm?"  Ugh.


----------



## todd03blown

FlyDawg72 said:


> 2 weeks ago we were up to 137 (???) at one point... can't remember the exact number.



Yep I think I even saw close to 150ish. I think if this storm pans out like DDD is saying the models are showing we will be in that range again.


----------



## jsullivan03

DDD said:


> 12ZGFS says... "What storm?"  Ugh.


----------



## blondiega1

FlyDawg72 said:


> I like the way you think...
> 
> Coco is adorable by the way, my in-laws have a chocolate lab named Ely (they used to own an outfitter business in Minnesota) they are GREAT dogs. Looks like Coco gave you  some entertainment playing the snow last week.



THANKS!
I just love her to pieces!  She's my velcro dog!  Follows me everywhere I go.
She's 3 mths old and up to 21 lbs!  Her mama was 70 lbs and her daddy 80 lbs, so I'm expecting her to be a big girl!
She LOVES the snow!  Couldn't get her to come back inside!
Fortunately we live on a lot of land and a 5 acre lake so lots of room for her to grow and run!


----------



## DDD

12Z GFS is way farther East, which very well could happen.  Verbatim it would be light snow going over to light freezing rain here Tuesday.

The models are going to waffle for sure... have to wait on the 12Z EURO and see what it says.

What I don't like is... remember last year when the models flipped and flopped and we rode the roller coaster??  Seems we are on that track


----------



## deerslayer357

DDD said:


> 12ZGFS says... "What storm?"  Ugh.



Uh Oh...


----------



## fitfabandfree

I'm only here to see how all of this plays out.  I just keep this thread open, and refresh every once in a while.  I don't even know what other threads are one here.

Maybe I should venture out of here and take a glance.


----------



## deerslayer357

fitfabandfree said:


> I'm only here to see how all of this plays out.  I just keep this thread open, and refresh every once in a while.  I don't even know what other threads are one here.
> 
> 
> Maybe I should venture out of here and take a glance.



Yes, you should!

Just don't get sucked into one of the baiting threads....


----------



## fitfabandfree

I'll do my best not to get sucked in.


----------



## DouglasB.

deerslayer357 said:


> Yes, you should!
> 
> Just don't get sucked into one of the baiting threads....



Or the proper tips for servers!!


----------



## shakey gizzard

fitfabandfree said:


> I'm only here to see how all of this plays out.  I just keep this thread open, and refresh every once in a while.  I don't even know what other threads are one here.
> 
> Maybe I should venture out of here and take a glance.



Here, your gunna need one of these!


----------



## Keebs

deerslayer357 said:


> Yes, you should!
> 
> Just don't get sucked into one of the baiting threads....





DouglasB. said:


> Or the proper tips for servers!!


Or Heaven forbid, a drivel thread!


----------



## fitfabandfree

Oh my!  Now I really have to go take a look.


----------



## FlyDawg72

deerslayer357 said:


> Yes, you should!
> 
> Just don't get sucked into one of the baiting threads....



HAHAHA ...  now THAT is funny..! I think I have worn out my welcome in a couple of those threads.


----------



## crackerdave

fitfabandfree said:


> I'm only here to see how all of this plays out.  I just keep this thread open, and refresh every once in a while.  I don't even know what other threads are one here.
> 
> Maybe I should venture out of here and take a glance.



Come on over by th' Campfire an' play!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> 12Z GFS is way farther East, which very well could happen.  Verbatim it would be light snow going over to light freezing rain here Tuesday.
> 
> The models are going to waffle for sure... have to wait on the 12Z EURO and see what it says.
> 
> What I don't like is... remember last year when the models flipped and flopped and we rode the roller coaster??  Seems we are on that track



 At what point in the game, meaning how many hours out can you pretty well be asured that the models are locked in and are not going to change? For example we are 84 hours out now at what point do the models usually quit wavering or do they?


----------



## todd03blown

the weather channel is showing their models with the potential BIG snow storm over the Atlanta area......things are really starting to pop out of the wood work now!!  They are saying Tues -Thurs!!


----------



## GA DAWG

Last time I didnt want snow and it snowed..So, this time I'm going hope it snows


----------



## DDD

WoodsmanEd said:


> At what point in the game, meaning how many hours out can you pretty well be asured that the models are locked in and are not going to change? For example we are 84 hours out now at what point do the models usually quit wavering or do they?



Ed, 72 hours out for most models.

I am highly interested in this run of the EURO and tonight's run.  

Scares me when the weather channel starts acting like they are actually forecasting.


----------



## fitfabandfree

I'm going to go and buy some sleds and ski masks.  I'm sure it won't snow then.


----------



## shakey gizzard

fitfabandfree said:


> I'm going to go and buy some sleds and ski masks.  I'm sure it won't snow then.



Ski mask?Im takin this back!


----------



## DDD

The Canadian says, "GFS is drunk, get out your sleds."

The EURO is off and running... I speak the truth... the EURO is in it's wheel house for the next 24 hours.


----------



## Resica

shakey gizzard said:


>


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Ed, 72 hours out for most models.
> 
> I am highly interested in this run of the EURO and tonight's run.
> 
> Scares me when the weather channel starts acting like they are actually forecasting.



come on snow!!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> Ed, 72 hours out for most models.
> 
> I am highly interested in this run of the EURO and tonight's run.
> 
> Scares me when the weather channel starts acting like they are actually forecasting.



 They are forecasting because they were smart enough to read your posts!!


----------



## Pittard

Keebs said:


> Or Heaven forbid, a drivel thread!



don't do it


----------



## DDD

I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.  

Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think?"

Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?


----------



## fitfabandfree

You are famous now.  Don't let it go to your head.  There are 4 or 5 of us who came to this site together yesterday just to check you out.


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think."
> 
> Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?



I refer to you as "my Guys"!


----------



## WickedKwik

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think?"
> 
> Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?



Need some T-Shirts i'm tellin ya


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think."
> 
> Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?



 All Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ---- the Weather Kings!!!!!! Folks you can depend on.....AMEN


----------



## fitfabandfree

We need you to come on over to our other site and post your predictions too.  

You can be a celebrity at both places.


----------



## DouglasB.

shakey gizzard said:


> i refer to you as "my guys"!



x2.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Ido not know why that happened.....It was supposed to be Hail to the Weather Kings!!!


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think?"
> 
> Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?



Answer with, "hmmm, really?! ... and what EXACTLY are they saying?

...and the Legend continues to grow...


----------



## DouglasB.

I will say that during the last storm I averaged about 9 calls a day in the days leading up to it simply asking "What are your guys saying now".... I got to where I was telling them to join the site and find out for themselves. Phone has been pretty quiet though... guess this time around they just don't wanna know.


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> Got an email just now, "Hey, have you heard about the weather guys over at GON's forum?  They say there is another one coming?  I know you love the weather... what do you think?"
> 
> Hmm... wonder how I should answer that?



Indeed you are!

Question for you.....are you thinking this is a repeat of last week?
Or are we looking at a possible event like 1993?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Resica said:


>



Shhh!


----------



## Nitram4891

fitfabandfree said:


> We need you to come on over to our other site and post your predictions too.
> 
> You can be a celebrity at both places.



DDD, you need an agent.


----------



## DDD

EURO clears south Georgia, says hello to the northern half of Alabama and Georgia.  Looks nothing like the GFS.

Looks similar to 2 weeks ago except farther north and west.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> EURO clears south Georgia, says hello to the northern half of Alabama and Georgia.  Looks nothing like the GFS.
> 
> Looks similar to 2 weeks ago except farther north and west.



YES!!!! Hello more snow for Canton


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> EURO clears south Georgia, says hello to the northern half of Alabama and Georgia.  Looks nothing like the GFS.
> 
> Looks similar to 2 weeks ago except farther north and west.



Wonder where Paulding falls.............


----------



## fitfabandfree

Me too Blondiega1.  I will continue to check in on this.


----------



## DCHunter

fitfabandfree said:


> Me too Blondiega1.  I will continue to check in on this.



Did Subby come over here with ya'll?


----------



## Crstabel

NOOOO northwest ga snow!!!! you southern, centralian, eastern, atlantans can have this storm! I gotta go to work. My northeastern yankee accounts dont care if i cant make the drive from cartersville to dalton or understand why ga shuts down for snow! I was shouted at toooo much last week...


----------



## DouglasB.

Kinda starting to wonder just how many new members we have now thanks to DDD, Miguel, and BoneBoy and their Weather threads. 

Anyone care to raise their hands?


----------



## blondiega1

DCHunter said:


> Did Subby come over here with ya'll?



Elephino....


----------



## DDD

On this run everyone is a winner north of I-20.  The North West starting say... around Acworth over to Hellen.  Everything north of that line gets hammered. would be 6-10" of snow.

Atlanta would start out as rain and go over to snow rather quickly, due to the HPS up in the NE above Maine, it slows this mother of a storm down... way down and allows it to snow for a long period of time.  Also, because the LPS is deepening as she nears the Eastern Coast it really throws a nice showing of 2"+ around on the wrap around moisture.

Ya'll better get ready... it's gonna try and do it again.


----------



## Jeff C.

Above or below I-20, or is it too soon for that???


----------



## todd03blown

DouglasB. said:


> Kinda starting to wonder just how many new members we have now thanks to DDD, Miguel, and BoneBoy and their Weather threads.
> 
> Anyone care to raise their hands?



I am one due to them. I started following in december and joined the first of Jan.

Great overall forum however!!


----------



## fitfabandfree

DCHunter said:


> Did Subby come over here with ya'll?



I don't think so, but don't know for sure.


----------



## fitfabandfree

I think I've already raised my hand as being here because of their reputation.


----------



## DDD

Jeff C. said:


> Above or below I-20, or is it too soon for that???



Above I-20 is snow, below I-20 would be all rain.


----------



## Jeff C.

DDD said:


> Above I-20 is snow, below I-20 would be all rain.



Thank you Sir!!!


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> On this run everyone is a winner north of I-20.  The North West starting say... around Acworth over to Hellen.  Everything north of that line gets hammered. would be 6-10" of snow.
> 
> Atlanta would start out as rain and go over to snow rather quickly, due to the HPS up in the NE above Maine, it slows this mother of a storm down... way down and allows it to snow for a long period of time.  Also, because the LPS is deepening as she nears the Eastern Coast it really throws a nice showing of 2"+ around on the wrap around moisture.
> 
> Ya'll better get ready... it's gonna try and do it again.



Great! I would be in that hammered area.....Going to be fun to see how this pans out...I have my money on you DDD and so do my neighbors.

I get facebook questions all the time..like....What is the latest? Come on does that guy have any more info?

LOL!! You rock!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> On this run everyone is a winner north of I-20.  The North West starting say... around Acworth over to Hellen.  Everything north of that line gets hammered. would be 6-10" of snow.
> 
> Atlanta would start out as rain and go over to snow rather quickly, due to the HPS up in the NE above Maine, it slows this mother of a storm down... way down and allows it to snow for a long period of time.  Also, because the LPS is deepening as she nears the Eastern Coast it really throws a nice showing of 2"+ around on the wrap around moisture.
> 
> Ya'll better get ready... it's gonna try and do it again.



So south of I-20 say to Columbus stays rain?


----------



## blondiega1

2+ inches for North of I -20 but below Ackworth??

It's the "+" that scares me!  LOL


----------



## todd03blown

blondiega1 said:


> 2+ inches for North of I -20 but below Ackworth??
> 
> It's the "+" that scares me!  LOL



the way I read it was 2+" on the backside of this as is rotates and after the main part of the storm has already passed but that is my understanding.


----------



## DDD

WoodsmanEd said:


> So south of I-20 say to Columbus stays rain?



Yes sir.

To that point, what I was about to post...

You folks south of I-20 don't go to sleep on me.  This is just one run of the EURO.  We are still 5 days out.  So you folks up north want some crazy numbers?

Due to this thing bombing out more inland than the last system, if the EURO verified, the mountains would be looking at 12-18" of snow.  The cyclonics in the upper atmosphere along with lift, will give way to some serious snowing and thundering and even lightning.  It would be quite a show.


----------



## blondiega1

todd03blown said:


> the way I read it was 2+" on the backside of this as is rotates and after the main part of the storm has already passed but that is my understanding.



Mayhap I'm misunderstanding then.

How much is the best guess for I-20 north?


(i'm blonde. that's my story and i'm sticking to it.)


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> the way I read it was 2+" on the backside of this as is rotates and after the main part of the storm has already passed but that is my understanding.



Exactly.

We would be looking at 3-4" of initial snow and then 1-2" of wrap around for about 4-6" total.


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> Exactly.
> 
> We would be looking at 3-4" of initial snow and then 1-2" of wrap around for about 4-6" total.



Thank you for the clarification.


----------



## Paymaster

Well then,rain in Heard,Troup and Coweta!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Thanks as always DDD keep us abreast,  As for my household our sanity from parents and in-laws lies with your predictions....


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> On this run everyone is a winner north of I-20.  The North West starting say... around Acworth over to Hellen.  Everything north of that line gets hammered. would be 6-10" of snow.
> 
> Atlanta would start out as rain and go over to snow rather quickly, due to the HPS up in the NE above Maine, it slows this mother of a storm down... way down and allows it to snow for a long period of time.  Also, because the LPS is deepening as she nears the Eastern Coast it really throws a nice showing of 2"+ around on the wrap around moisture.
> 
> Ya'll better get ready... it's gonna try and do it again.


DDD, On the christmas day storm we were all rain on Christmas Day. But when I woke the next day, it began to snow from the wrap around moisture. It seemed to funnel the colder air with it. We in Thomson, as you recall, received 4 inches of snow from that event. Do you see a similar set up from the storm? Thanks for your insight!!


----------



## DDD

Mark my words, this has HUGE potential for Atlanta, NW GA, and then up I-85 over towards Athens to really lay down a heavy snowing.  Something like we have not seen in a very, very, very long time.

Still 5 days out, but if you think I will not be up watching the EURO tonight, you are crazy.


----------



## Nate23

DDD said:


> Mark my words, this has HUGE potential for Atlanta, NW GA, and then up I-85 over towards Athens to really lay down a heavy snowing.  Something like we have not seen in a very, very, very long time.
> 
> Still 5 days out, but if you think I will not be up watching the EURO tonight, you are crazy.


----------



## DDD

deerhuntingdawg said:


> DDD, On the christmas day storm we were all rain on Christmas Day. But when I woke the next day, it began to snow from the wrap around moisture. It seemed to funnel the colder air with it. We in Thomson, as you recall, received 4 inches of snow from that event. Do you see a similar set up from the storm? Thanks for your insight!!



What happened there, (similar in some ways to this set up) is due to the "bombing out" of the storm, it sucks cold air in rapidly "underneath" the low pressure system, rapidly cooling the column and boom... you go from rain to snow and it piles up quick.  

What the EURO is showing is that on steriods, but a little farther north.

I have to keep telling myself this is 5 days out and not to get to lost on the solution, it has plenty of time to change, leave, go north... ect... but as with past storms, the closer we get the more it dials in.


----------



## grewupstockcar

I can't wait to see the run tonight.


----------



## blondiega1

So what day are you saying this is going to hit??

Tuesday?
Wednesday?


----------



## DDD

blondiega1 said:


> So what day are you saying this is going to hit??
> 
> Tuesday?
> Wednesday?



Tuesday afternoon / evening.  About like it did last Sunday night... maybe a few hours before dark.

In ATL would start as rain and then change over.  If upper dymnamics take over we will rapidly change over and get some serious snow rates.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> What happened there, (similar in some ways to this set up) is due to the "bombing out" of the storm, it sucks cold air in rapidly "underneath" the low pressure system, rapidly cooling the column and boom... you go from rain to snow and it piles up quick.
> 
> What the EURO is showing is that on steriods, but a little farther north.
> 
> I have to keep telling myself this is 5 days out and not to get to lost on the solution, it has plenty of time to change, leave, go north... ect... but as with past storms, the closer we get the more it dials in.



Thanks for the qucik reply. I understand the modles can change with wind!! What sparked my questions was a combo of your hypothesis of the wrap around moisure, the christmas storm, and weather.com gives us a 60 percent chance of rain/snow Tuesday evening. I put more credence in what you predict over them the last year!!! Another thing I've always observed, we are right on I-20 so its seems we're always a hit or miss with this winter weather.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> Tuesday afternoon / evening.  About like it did last Sunday night... maybe a few hours before dark.
> 
> In ATL would start as rain and then change over.  If upper dymnamics take over we will rapidly change over and get some serious snow rates.



  So just to clarify Sunday afternoon/evening we sould be somewhat locked on which part of the state will get what precip and a ballpark estimate of snow fall amounts?


----------



## crackerdave

DDD,you da _man!_ Thanks for what you do here.


----------



## YOGIGATOR

More snow well thats just  AWESOME  (picture a little smilie stepping up onto a chair strategically placed infront of a noose ) Come on Global Warming you can kick this snows tail you know you can DO IT  DO IT  ( picture another little smilie looking out his window at all the Snow in his yard wondering what he's gonna do , oh yeah he can get out probably, he did last time ,but get out and do WHAT they roll the sidewalks up around here at 5:02 PM when its 72 and SUNNY, some similies just arent made for captivity, poor poor smilie )


----------



## Nitram4891

Lot of model runs to go and definitely not nearly the convergence we were seeing from one model to the next like the storm from 2 weeks ago.  Just need to keep the fingers crossed.


----------



## Palmetto

Keeping tabs on this thread again. We ended up with 7+ inches here in Clemson last storm. Sounds like we might get covered up again?


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> EURO clears south Georgia, says hello to the northern half of Alabama and Georgia.  Looks nothing like the GFS.
> 
> Looks similar to 2 weeks ago except farther north and west.



At least the mean of the ensembles on the GFS has a better looking track of the low than the op run.  I wish we had access to the hr by hr frames of the euro, because I would love to see the 12 or so hours before this one.  Looking at that 500mb low just cranking over NEGA says thundersnow somewhere up under there


----------



## Nate23

If I recall correctly, the Christmas Day winter event did not rely on phasing of two different systems where as the winter event previous to the Christmas Day storm relied on phasing.  

It appears that the event on the 24th/25th will rely on the phasing once again.  Is this correct?


----------



## bigox911

Nate23 said:


> If I recall correctly, the Christmas Day winter event did not rely on phasing of two different systems where as the winter event previous to the Christmas Day storm relied on phasing.
> 
> It appears that the event on the 24th/25th will rely on the phasing once again.  Is this correct?



Not sure about the storm previous to Christmas, but Christmas phased to bring us the snow and the one last week did not, but phased further up the coast.  This coming event will rely on phasing to fire the storm up in the upper levels of the atmosphere (500mb and higher).


----------



## DDD

Nate23 said:


> If I recall correctly, the Christmas Day winter event did not rely on phasing of two different systems where as the winter event previous to the Christmas Day storm relied on phasing.
> 
> It appears that the event on the 24th/25th will rely on the phasing once again.  Is this correct?



The Christmas event had some phasing but not full phasing.  It pulled the cold air in but not the moisture.  If you remember temps were too warm, upper dynamics kicked in farther West than East.

Last week the cold was here just waiting on the Low, and the Low pulled down even more cold when it swept throug, its why it stayed around so long.


----------



## jsullivan03

YOGIGATOR said:


> More snow well thats just  AWESOME (picture a little smilie stepping up onto a chair strategically placed infront of a noose )
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Come on Global Warming you can kick this snows tail you know you can DO IT  DO IT  ( picture another little smilie looking out his window at all the Snow in his yard wondering what he's gonna do , oh yeah he can get out probably, he did last time ,but get out and do WHAT they roll the sidewalks up around here at 5:02 PM when its 72 and SUNNY, some similies just arent made for captivity, poor poor smilie )



There ya go!  Helped ya out a little.


----------



## cmarkwillix

shakey gizzard said:


> I refer to you as "my Guys"!



Make that six. 

:waves at fff and blondie and naturegirl, et al:


----------



## blondiega1

cmarkwillix said:


> Make that six.
> 
> :waves at fff and blondie and naturegirl, et al:



HI HONEY!!


----------



## Jeff Raines

cmarkwillix said:


> Make that six.
> 
> :waves at fff and blondie and naturegirl, et al:



another pcomer


----------



## YOGIGATOR

jsullivan03 said:


> There ya go!  Helped ya out a little.



Thanks  Thats Perfect


----------



## cmarkwillix

Jeff Raines said:


> another pcomer



It's me, It's me, It's C. Mark Willix (that rhymes better if your name is Ernest T. Bass)


----------



## Naturegirl

cmarkwillix said:


> It's me, It's me, It's C. Mark Willix (that rhymes better if your name is Ernest T. Bass)



Hey Mark!!  I've been here for a year or so, great forum!!


----------



## todd03blown

weather channel just stated again...Another snow storm for the Atlanta area as all the models are starting to come together again. How much snow and how far south still remains to be seen.

This was their words a minute ago...


----------



## fitfabandfree

cmarkwillix said:


> make that six.
> 
> :waves at fff and blondie and naturegirl, et al:



yay!!!  We love us some mark!


----------



## rospaw

DDD said:


> I am hearing rumors that Miguel, BigOx and I are becoming local celebs when it comes to winter wx.  Ya'll been spread'n the word I see.
> 
> DDD aka "THE WINTER WEATHER GOD" I've had 3 texted in the last 24hrs say "hey, what does your weather guy say or Whats DDD saying..... But i think its time to miss a prediction or two...... Some of my friends find this to be very strange that you are right and all the tv guys/gals aren't! My new thing will be to tell them ....... "I THINK IT'S WITCHCRAFT"


----------



## grewupstockcar

DDD for president
I have the tshirts for sale.


----------



## jsullivan03

rospaw said:


> DDD aka "THE WINTER WEATHER GOD" I've had 3 texted in the last 24hrs say "hey, what does your weather guy say or Whats DDD saying..... But i think its time to miss a prediction or two...... Some of my friends find this to be very strange that you are right and all the tv guys/gals aren't! My new thing will be to tell them ....... "I THINK IT'S WITCHCRAFT"











I've had several family members and friends calling to ask what todays updates were from "the weather guru".  My Mom called when I was in the middle of something. I told her I'd call her back her response was "Hurry up, all the teachers at my school want to know what is gonna happen before they leave for the day"


----------



## marknga

Have you ever noticed DDD's signature line?
" I should be a MOD"

Well he is:
Meteorologist On Demand


----------



## Nicodemus

marknga said:


> Have you ever noticed DDD's signature line?
> " I should be a MOD"
> 
> Well he is:
> Meteorologist On Demand





And he is very good at what he does. We rely on his forecasts down here as much as ya`ll do up yonder.


----------



## crackerdave

Hey! Let's throw a big Woody's party for our weather crew!  [After the snow,of course.]


----------



## rospaw

jsullivan03 said:


> I've had several family members and friends calling to ask what todays updates were from "the weather guru".  My Mom called when I was in the middle of something. I told her I'd call her back her response was "Hurry up, all the teachers at my school want to know what is gonna happen before they leave for the day"


Then everyone ask "how is he (ddd) doing it ?" I normal go for the short answer and say "I don't know" but it still gets drawn out. Friends i give them the med answer and say " he (ddd) reads maps! lol that only creates more question with it ending in "I don't know"! Very good friends get the detailed answer "the gfs, euro, stars, moon phase ect....  " And that creates dinner out with cocktails and a laptop or two....... ending in more cocktails and what the waitress is wearing......... and still "i don't know"!


----------



## FlyDawg72

rospaw said:


> Then everyone ask "how is he (ddd) doing it ?" I normal go for the short answer and say "I don't know" but it still gets drawn out. Friends i give them the med answer and say " he (ddd) reads maps! lol that only creates more question with it ending in "I don't know"! Very good friends get the detailed answer "the gfs, euro, stars, moon phase ect....  " And that creates dinner out with cocktails and a laptop or two....... ending in more cocktails and what the waitress is wearing......... and still "i don't know"!



...eye of NEWT! ...wing of BAT!

DDD = Dacula Deer Doppler


----------



## mountainpass

KC said weak chance.


----------



## blondiega1

If this plays out like y'all are predicting my poor boys (my pekin ducks) are NOT going to be happy!
The lake almost completely froze over last time!  First time that's ever happened!  Poor duckies.....


----------



## todd03blown

mountainpass said:


> KC said weak chance.



just heard him say that.....


----------



## mountainpass

But remember his choice of sweater/tie/sport coat was weak also....


----------



## todd03blown

mountainpass said:


> But remember his choice of sweater/tie/sport coat was weak also....



LOL!!!!!!!!!!! So true!! weak sauce...


----------



## blondiega1

mountainpass said:


> But remember his choice of sweater/tie/sport coat was weak also....



Y'all quit picking on the swashbuckler!


----------



## blondiega1

wow!
Who peed in his cornflakes??


----------



## doenightmare

He doesn't forecast on models -  I guess he looks out the window then. He is a little ****y - maybe is a member here?


----------



## mountainpass

Here's what Melish wrote this morning


> ***Potential for a big ticket significant winter storm SOMETIME in the late Monday into Wed. time frame SOMEWHERE in Georgia and/or adjacent states, it is a threat to be monitored but remember a potential threat is not a forecast, check updates here and on the radio all weekend into Monday, I work weekends***



SOMETIME....SOMEWHERE


----------



## mountainpass

PO just said it doesn't take any skill to throw out big snow totals 3 days out...

My DDD it seems they have heard about you!


----------



## contender*

doenightmare said:


> He doesn't forecast on models -  I guess he looks out the window then. He is a little ****y - maybe is a member here?



If he's not he should be, might learn him somethin.


----------



## lbzdually

contender* said:


> If he's not he should be, might learn him somethin.



Zing!!!


----------



## jcountry

blondiega1 said:


> wow!
> Who peed in his cornflakes??



Kirk has been this way for a while.  He used to be very interesting, and his forecasts were great.  Now-I don't know, maybe his contract is about to expire, maybe his daughter eloped with the station manager, who knows?

-Kirk just ain't Kirk no more.


----------



## Foxmeister

I for one am hoping it just fizzles.


----------



## crackerdave

doenightmare said:


> He doesn't forecast on models -  I guess he looks out the window then. He is a little ****y - maybe is a member here?



Obviously,he ain't had "Smilie Training!"


----------



## Steve78

foxmeister said:


> i for one am hoping it just fizzles.



x2!!


----------



## crackerdave

I bet a _lot_ of folks are! With the exception of the sellers of bread and milk.


----------



## K80

blondiega1 said:


> wow!
> Who peed in his cornflakes??



ddd.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

*Bless your heart DDD*

Diane Sawyer just had a reporter say that we are in for this Winter weather for the next few years. Said it was Global warming that will cause it. 
Thanks for all you do. I do hope the reporter is dead wrong for your sake.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

doenightmare said:


> He doesn't forecast on models -  I guess he looks out the window then. He is a little ****y - maybe is a member here?



I really think he is a lurker on here. The last snow he forecast was just what DDD said, sept a little (LOT) later. I really think he reads this thread. Go DDD!


----------



## grewupstockcar

*Who's he anyway?*

He has "weather envy"   Go DDD!!!!


----------



## jcountry

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I really think he is a lurker on here. The last snow he forecast was just what DDD said, sept a little (LOT) later. I really think he reads this thread. Go DDD!



I have been thinking the same thing about Kirk...  He sure seems extra-defensive about his forecasts lately.


----------



## DEERFU

jcountry said:


> Kirk has been this way for a while.  He used to be very interesting, and his forecasts were great.  Now-I don't know, maybe his contract is about to expire, maybe his daughter eloped with the station manager, who knows?
> 
> -Kirk just ain't Kirk no more.



He's tired of folks knocking on the trailer out back and waking him up! Wanting an imby accumulation total


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> I have been thinking the same thing about Kirk... He sure seems extra-defensive about his forecasts lately.


 
Perhaps he is under pressure from the liberal management at wsb to "sensationalize" the forecast. It's just not his style, nor should it be any meteorologist style. Perhaps he is growing wearry of the grind in the workplace.


----------



## Battlewagon

This guy needs a membership here in a bad way.

Ga. climatologist expects warming soon

GAINESVILLE, Ga. -- State climatologist David Stooksbury says that despite last week's snowfall, north Georgia is having a dry winter

Read more: http://www.macon.com/2011/01/19/1416176/ga-climatologist-expects-warming.html#ixzz1Bj29mmWM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Battlewagon said:


> This guy needs a membership here in a bad way.
> 
> Ga. climatologist expects warming soon
> 
> GAINESVILLE, Ga. -- State climatologist David Stooksbury says that despite last week's snowfall, north Georgia is having a dry winter
> 
> Read more: http://www.macon.com/2011/01/19/1416176/ga-climatologist-expects-warming.html#ixzz1Bj29mmWM


 
He must be a GSU grad...

I understand his point, based on precipitable moisture. However, snow on the ground that takes over a week to melt contributes a ton more moisture to the soil and plants than a few higher volume rainfalls ever could. His point is moot.


----------



## Crooked Stick

so how much in my back yard??????? hahahahahahahah


----------



## lbzdually

The G-DOT is gearing up like its going to be a big one.  why didn't I order those snow-chains- oh wait, it's because I'm a cheapskate.


----------



## DDD

Let me say something about Kirk Melish.

The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.  

Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?

Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.  

I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.

I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.

The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.

I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.

So buckle up and lets see what happens.


----------



## Resica

lbzdually said:


> The G-DOT is gearing up like its going to be a big one.  why didn't I order those snow-chains- oh wait, it's because I'm a cheapskate.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.
> 
> Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.



It's all about you dooooode. We are all watchin you.


----------



## Resica

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.  Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.





Well said.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.
> 
> Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.



That is why we love your forecasts. You don't have to be conservative. You can speak your mind and let us know the true potetial of each storm. Sure it might bust, but I enjoy the "rush from the potential".  Keep doing what your doing!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> That is why we love your forecasts. You don't have to be conservative. You can speak your mind and let us know the true potetial of each storm. Sure it might bust, but I enjoy the "rush from the potential". Keep doing what your doing!!!


 
He makes it fun for sure. 

Through all of the FEMA training I've had, the one thing that is stressed is "Plain Speech" on communications. Kirk is very good at that, but the masters of it are the Alabama NWS and James Spann. They put things on a level that their audience can understand. I think that in general the Atl. Met's have a problem relating to the average citizen on a ground level and the PTC NWS is just lost in the fog when it comes to cooperating with FEMA requirements for plaine speech.

I would very much like to see our state agencies understand what most citizens are looking for out of a forecast, and a more personal style of communications, but unfortunatly they haven't asked my opinion yet, on either of my visits to the NWS.

Off topic, but important for the upcoming STS season. There is a link over on GW for Skywarn Spotter Training. It would be nice for as many of you that are members, and are able, to go through this training. All the projections in the world don't compare to ground truth by a trained individual when the nasty winds start spinning around. This will be a critical service that each of you can provide for the NWS in PTC. They heavily depend on ground truth during severe spring and summer weather.


----------



## lbzdually

Resica said:


>



What's bad is I drove by the Autozone in Pigeon Forge, Tn 4 times last weekend and each time I said I was going to stop in because they had a sign that said they carried snow chains.  So if this big snows hits guys, you can officially blame me for not buying the chains.  Tell you what though, if you want to get together a pool to buy me some chains, we might not have another snow for 20 years.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel,
The fact that I live in Mcduffie County puts my "area" with the NWS out of Columbia, SC. Could I be a trained spotter for the PTC NWS? Just curious. BTW, Looking foward to your expertise this spring!!


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.
> 
> Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.



I completely see your point, and agree with your thoughts on KM, in the warehouse where I work that station plays ALL DAY LONG so I hear his forecasts all the time.

I think it's great that this is "your thing" whether it's a talent, interest, hobby, addiction, or curse... it's yours, and you do it well. No one in this field is right 100% of the time, it can be likened to the stock market or possibly horse racing ... you get AAAAALLLLLLL the info you can, then make your best educated guess.

I appreciate your efforts, admire what you put into this, and use your information/forecasts to plan hunting and fishing trips. Isn't that why most people come to this forum... for info, to learn, and share knowledge?


----------



## Wade Chandler

Can we start a petition to not have the EURO run at such a Godawful middle of the night time?
I'll be annoying at the risk of being ignored and ask if there are any updates on what the latest GFS, NAM, or any of the others came up with?  We've got almost a whole page here without a map. . . such a travesty.  Are we still on with the Monday-Tuesday time frame or is it getting pushed to Tuesday-Wednesday?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> What's bad is I drove by the Autozone in Pigeon Forge, Tn 4 times last weekend and each time I said I was going to stop in because they had a sign that said they carried snow chains. So if this big snows hits guys, you can officially blame me for not buying the chains. Tell you what though, if you want to get together a pool to buy me some chains, we might not have another snow for 20 years.


 The new sled just came in the mail yesterday and I'm going to ace hardware tomorrow to buy two saucer sleds. I practice Murphy's Law with extreme efficiency..



deerhuntingdawg said:


> Miguel,
> The fact that I live in Mcduffie County puts my "area" with the NWS out of Columbia, SC. Could I be a trained spotter for the PTC NWS? Just curious. BTW, Looking foward to your expertise this spring!!


You would report to the NWS office or EMA office (if a skywarn group is formed) in your area. That being said, we will have a ground truth thread on the GW site come that time of year, for comparative information to go into the archives.


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.
> 
> Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.



Dude, I got a G on3to5 IMBY!jkMother Nature is unpredictable!


----------



## DDD

For those of you who do not want snow, hug the GFS model and kiss it.  I really do believe it has lost it's mind.


----------



## doenightmare

mrs. hornet22 said:


> It's all about you dooooode. We are all watchin you.



No pressure though  -


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> For those of you who do not want snow, hug the GFS model and kiss it.  I really do believe it has lost it's mind.



They giveth and then they taketh away!


----------



## doenightmare

GB just said he was watching 4 different models and it could be a snow bomb or rain. What 4 is he speaking to DDD?


----------



## DDD

doenightmare said:


> GB just said he was watching 4 different models and it could be a snow bomb or rain. What 4 is he speaking to DDD?



Canadian, EURO, GFS and NAM

The one graphic I saw at 6 this evening was from the NAM.

The NAM, EURO and Canadian all look the same with the general idea.

I will try and make a map Sunday night if we have a storm.  This is going to make me lose my hair.  LOL


----------



## todd03blown

What is the likelyhood if 3 of the 4 models all being in agreement that what they show will happen while the GFS is out to lunch?


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> What is the likelyhood if 3 of the 4 models all being in agreement that what they show will happen while the GFS is out to lunch?



If I was a betting man, I would say the GFS is on crack and smoking it regularly.

One thing is for sure, one is really, really wrong.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that snowmegdon II is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.
> 
> Look at how people went after the DOT for not having their roads cleared.  Can you imagine how people would go after him if he called for it, they stocked up and it never happened?
> 
> Kirk is a big voice in the weather in GA and N. GA.  DDD is not.  No doubt it has grown.  My PM box gets busy, my Facebook is nuts and my text messages are nuts.  I have sorta created a small following.
> 
> I think Kirk has been off his game a little, but it both systems have either been on a holiday or on a weekend.  I realize he gets paid to be a 24/7 source of information, but he has a life too.
> 
> I also give kudos to Glenn Burns on the last few systems and what I saw him forecasting tonight.  I thought how he put it out there was spot on.  It's still a long way off, it looks like big snow, but we all have to stay tuned because it could be worse or it could be nothing.
> 
> The GFS is still the outlier as of late with it's whacked out solution.  It still is not handling the 3 pieces of energy well at all.  All the other models say it is still game on.
> 
> I will say this.  I have managed to call 2 storms right.  If Miguel wanted to he could point out many that I have thought would happen in years past and they have left me high and dry.  Looking like a moron.  This one very well could do that.  Like someone said it is about time for DDD to miss one.
> 
> So buckle up and lets see what happens.


Many good points in this post!!............First, and foremost when you raise a flag.......I listen........I also know how dicey snow chances are in my area!!...........If you get Snow I may get Ice.......Ice is not good!!

Living in the country has taught me a few things over the years.............Even though we heat with a wood heater, and can stay warm with a long term power outage...........Water is just as important as heat!!

In the country your water comes from a well..............Wells need Electricity to run.......Without water you can't flush the toilet, or take a shower/bath

Even though I have not used my advanced preparations yet!!.........I am thankful that I was prepared!!

With local TV outlets I would have not been prepared!!

Keep on doing what you do!!


----------



## DDD

Well, the EURO says GDOT better have their act together by Tuesday.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Ok, I can sleep soundly.  I can't believe I stayed up till 1:30 for 1 line of assurance.  I really do feel like one of those guys running behind Forrest Gump, except DDD is much more profound!


----------



## DDD

LOL... Wade I am about to write more.


----------



## DDD

Shhh.... he's gonna say something.


----------



## deerhunter75

*Euro be good to the southside*

Please Euro be good to the southside...


----------



## slip

deerhunter75 said:


> Please Euro be good to the southside...



 heres hoping.


----------



## Wade Chandler

DDD said:


> Shhh.... he's gonna say something.



"I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home now"
DDD takes his models and goes home.  The End


----------



## DDD

12Z EURO and the Canadian paint quite a picture from MS, to Alabama, to most of TN, to North GA over into the Carolinas.

ATL looks to be 1.15" of moisture, all of which is not snow, but I would say about .8-1.0 of it is snow.  which would mean 8-10" of snow.  The depening of the Low as it crosses Savanah is just stupid.  I can only dream of what the snow rates will be in Athens, Atlanta, N GA Mountains, upstate SC, and in Charlotte.

It is truly an epic snow storm if it was to verify.

I think ATL is going to be right on the fine line.  Dunwoody could see 5" and the airport might see 2".  It's going to be that kind of fall off.  That sort of pay out could slide North or South.

Wade, the mountains look to get a foot or more of snow.  

If the EURO holds onto this solution I most certainly will make a map tomorrow afternoon after I get off the basketball court.

The track is almost perfect for a good SE snow.  I look for the moisture amounts to increase as we roll towards Tuesday.  I would also not be surprised for the trend to be for the LPS to be stronger which will only pull more moisture and more cold air from the upper atmosphere which will only increase snow amounts and make that snow / rain line slide south.  But that is just wish casting on my part.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Good Heavens.  Sounding pretty intense.  Looking forward to Miguel's take on this one, denial can't last forever.  As long as I can get to the airport at 5am Friday I'll keep hoping and wishing and praying for a foot or more up here!
Thanks for making it worth my while to get 3.5 hours of sleep tonight!!!


----------



## DDD

Miguel needs to forget about the GFS.  The UKMET, Canadian, NAM and EURO all screaming for southern snow... the GFS has lost it's ever loving mind.

We still have Saturday, Sunday, Monday to go.  Lots of time left for shifting... lots.  

Night you guys.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Indeed.  We're still in that window where the EURO has been the goose laying the golden egg though and the GFS has been the problem child.  I just hope for some trend toward an agreement in the next 24-36 hours.
Night.


----------



## AM1

I just saw a saint benard with one of those mini-kegs around his neck. He said the 'Agency' sometimes likes to place them ahead of the event.


----------



## Dutch

I'm praying for NO SNOW. 

I want to go crappie fishing Tuesday.


----------



## dirtroad

Wade Chandler said:


> Ok, I can sleep soundly.  I can't believe I stayed up till 1:30 for 1 line of assurance.  I really do feel like one of those guys running behind Forrest Gump, except DDD is much more profound!



..It Happens!


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> Let me say something about Kirk Melish.
> 
> The guy is one heck of a MET.  Make no mistake, but he is in a much different position than I am.  This storm could go bust and all I have to listen to guys tell me how I suck.  Kirk gets on the radio or blogs that *snowmegdon II *is coming and it doesn't work out, he will be crucified and burnt at the stake.





IF this snow fall pans out to be a big one.....I'm TOTALLY calling it that!!


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

*snow*

dadgumit,  not again..


----------



## Wade Chandler

Good discussion from the Greenville NWS office this morning.  Very straightforward about the possibilities and the variance in the models.

There are some differences between these preferred solutions...though their timing continuity is quite excellent. The European model (ecmwf) has the sharpest and deepest representation of the upper trough as it takes on a neutral to 
negative tilt Tuesday night across the deep south and Tennessee Valley. The European model (ecmwf) would spread copious amounts of deep moisture and strong forcing across the forecast area starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through 
Wednesday morning. The European model (ecmwf) continues to rapidly deepen the cyclone as it moves northeastward...resulting in a slope drop of around 31mb between 18z Tuesday and 18z Wednesday. Both the European model (ecmwf) and the Gem 
are quite wet and would generate warning criteria snowfall across 
most of the County Warning Area. 


At this point...based on model thickness values and surface wet 
bulbs...it appears this will be almost entirely a rain/snow event. 
Areas along and south of I-85...and along the I-77 corridor could 
see more rain and rain/snow mix to start off as they warm into the upper 30s on Tuesday. This would be similar to the Christmas day storm though once precipitation starts they should go rapidly to all snow. 
Still too early to talk about precise precipitation amounts...but suffice to say that if the preferred solution works out heavy snow will be likely across much of the area. Still would like to see the GFS 
trend southward with the parent trough and subsequent Gulf 
cyclone...and would like to see continued run to run continuity in 
the European model (ecmwf) and Gem. Plenty of time remains for things to come into focus so stay tuned to future forecast updates for the latest.


----------



## whitetaco02

Dutch said:


> I'm praying for NO RAIN.
> 
> I want to go crappie fishing Tuesday.



There, I fixed it for you!  That is all we will be getting down here!


----------



## nickel back

deerhunter75 said:


> Please Euro be good to the southside...





slip said:


> heres hoping.



the last few winter storms that have rolled through here have all made a north turn and snow pretty good  above the Spalding county line.

We need  that low to move a little south(but not much just a little),that would help pull the heavy snow fall line down this way some((((I THINK))))


----------



## deermeat270

I'm going with the local forecasters on this event, sorry DDD.  I'm going with what GB said....all rain and snow in the extreme north GA mountains.


----------



## nickel back

deermeat270 said:


> I'm going with the local forecasters on this event, sorry DDD.  I'm going with what GB said....all rain and snow in the extreme north GA mountains.



...turn in your woodies card sir...


----------



## Robbie101

deermeat270 said:


> I'm going with the local forecasters on this event, sorry DDD.  I'm going with what GB said....all rain and snow in the extreme north GA mountains.



Me Too!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

deermeat270 said:


> I'm going with what GB said....all rain and snow in the extreme north GA mountains.


Sounds great to me what ol GB said..Sucks having to work in it..I guess if we were to get 12 or so inches..I will not be working in it this time..


----------



## 25.06

Wouldn't 60 degrees and sunshine be nice for a week or two.


----------



## bigox911

The end of the 6z run of the NAM has a very strong trough at the end of its run that is neutral/negative tilt already centered over N. LA.  This is much more in line with all of the models pretty much except for the GFS. By tonight the NAM should be out to where we can see if that trough is over GA somewhere and I'm hoping will be completely closed off and the 850 surface maps will be reflecting what is going on in the upper atmosphere.  Going to be interesting to see just how close it stays to the euro as we head in to tonight.







The 6z gfs is still saying what storm.  Going to be very interesting to see what ends up coming true here.


----------



## Deer Fanatic

I will be watching this one very close> I will be leaving on Teusday heading up to North Wilkesboro,NC for a meeting on Wed. and then headed back home on Thurs. This could turn into a very intersting road trip!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Deer Fanatic said:


> I will be watching this one very close> I will be leaving on Teusday heading up to North Wilkesboro,NC for a meeting on Wed. and then headed back home on Thurs. This could turn into a very intersting road trip!!!


 
For that part of the country, you may want to get confirmation that the meeting will take place on Wed. regardless of condition, leave a day early and take a few extra cloths..


----------



## Wade Chandler

This is starting to get ridiculous.  Logically, they should all be trending towards some sort of consensus with the date growing closer.  It baffles me that the GFS would be so far off of the other models.  It's not like these models reference each other, thus swaying the trends.  This wait and see game is killing me!!!


----------



## Bitteroot

I can't take it any more... I need snow... 

ahhhh.... to be the first back on top of Chesnut Mountain in  fresh snow.  Life doesn't get any better than that.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Bitteroot said:


> I can't take it any more... I need snow...
> 
> ahhhh.... to be the first back on top of Chesnut Mountain in  fresh snow.  Life doesn't get any better than that.



Need pics!


----------



## Bitteroot

shakey gizzard said:


> Need pics!


there will be pics!!


----------



## lilburnjoe

Bitteroot said:


> I can't take it any more... I need snow...
> 
> ahhhh.... to be the first back on top of Chesnut Mountain in  fresh snow.  Life doesn't get any better than that.



Isn't Alabama n the snow forecast ?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Bitteroot said:


> there will be pics!!



10-4!


----------



## lilburnjoe

So, where is Gwinnett Co. in all this ? Snow or Rain ?


----------



## Deer Fanatic

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For that part of the country, you may want to get confirmation that the meeting will take place on Wed. regardless of condition, leave a day early and take a few extra cloths..



Oh, thats just the comforting word I was looking for


----------



## FlyDawg72

ACE is STILL out of sleds and slider discs (ref National Lampoons Christmas vacation)... the garbage can lids are beginning to look very promising.


----------



## deermeat270

lilburnjoe said:


> So, where is Gwinnett Co. in all this ? Snow or Rain ?



I think its still up in the air.  However, if you go with the local MET's its going to rain and snow in extreme North GA.  DDD thinks we could get as much snow or more than the last round 2 weeks ago.

Im putting my money on rain, but who knows its still 4 1/2 days out.  

Its going to be alot of fun to watch and speculate  and give DDD a hard time.


----------



## deermeat270

FlyDawg72 said:


> ACE is STILL out of sleds and slider discs (ref National Lampoons Christmas vacation)... the garbage can lids are beginning to look very promising.



I checked on sleds yesterday too.  They said the main warehouse was out as well.


----------



## fitfabandfree

FlyDawg72 said:


> ACE is STILL out of sleds and slider discs (ref National Lampoons Christmas vacation)... the garbage can lids are beginning to look very promising.



If you have any signs, like old real estate signs, they are amazing to use for sleds.  Make sure the color side is down. 

Ace gave me a great big sign out of their window last week to use, and it was great!  I have video of my nephew flying down a hill on it.


----------



## bigox911

Well, well...look who wants to come play with the other models now...


----------



## shakey gizzard

bigox911 said:


> Well, well...look who wants to come play with the other models now...



Do tell!


----------



## fitfabandfree

bigox911 said:


> Well, well...look who wants to come play with the other models now...



Are you saying the GFS is coming around and saying "Oh.. that storm?"


----------



## bigox911

shakey gizzard said:


> Do tell!



Just remember, this is just another run, but a big step since the GFS has swung way back to having the same idea as the other models.  

For the last few runs the GFS has not even been showing a storm, but now it has this







And this out of huntsville...especially for you Bitter...there's your snow 

http://www.waff.com/global/video/fl...ageAdTag=Weather&activePane=info&rnd=41091421

My understanding is that this guy was very accurate on the Christmas storm and the one last week...we shall see


----------



## WickedKwik

Wow!!! @ the video


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> For those of you who do not want snow, hug the GFS model and kiss it.  I really do believe it has lost it's mind.



 Hey DDD The GFS went to lost and found and seems to have recovered


----------



## bigox911

The 12z gfs is showing negative tilt, very strong storm at 500mb.  The strongest precip is to the North and west of the center that is near Savannah.  It looks like it tracks from around Montgomery to Savannah


----------



## BBQBOSS

Looks good for us, Lee!  (For now at least)


----------



## bigox911

BBQBOSS said:


> Looks good for us, Lee!  (For now at least)




For now is exactly right!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

bigox911 said:


> Just remember, this is just another run, but a big step since the GFS has swung way back to having the same idea as the other models.
> 
> For the last few runs the GFS has not even been showing a storm, but now it has this
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And this out of huntsville...especially for you Bitter...there's your snow
> 
> http://www.waff.com/global/video/fl...ageAdTag=Weather&activePane=info&rnd=41091421
> 
> My understanding is that this guy was very accurate on the Christmas storm and the one last week...we shall see



 WOW is right....!!! looking at this it puts Heard, Troup, Harris, Coweta all the way to Columbus back into the snow game....I know alot can change, many runs to go but like everyone else just have to sit back and wait and see.


----------



## grewupstockcar

How much do you guys think Cartersville would be expecting???


----------



## GA DAWG

This snow will be gone by Thursday want it? I got a big coon hunt to go to in Albany.


----------



## Foxmeister

I would almost expect if this storm occurs the high temperatures to be less than what the weather channel is currently predicting on their website.


----------



## Sugar Plum

fitfabandfree said:


> If you have any signs, like old real estate signs, they are amazing to use for sleds.  Make sure the color side is down.
> 
> Ace gave me a great big sign out of their window last week to use, and it was great!  I have video of my nephew flying down a hill on it.



Inner tubes work great, too!


----------



## Steve78

Ok, stupid question...never been a big believer in this weatherman thread, but gotta give DDD credit, he has been pretty accurate in the past, but I was still skeptical. Now I am becoming a believer... So I am not up to date with all the weather lingo, what is the GFS?? and other important weather terms I need to know in order to understand some of these posts.


----------



## Brian Groce

*My wife said a weather thread can't be funny! HA*




Wade Chandler said:


> "I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home now"
> DDD takes his models and goes home.  The End


----------



## DDD

I am on my phone so this will be short. 

GFS and EURO all screaming for a snow storm Tuesday and Wednesday. The EURO is a bigger hit for NW GA and is borderline on temps from Atlanta to Athens. 

As Bigox has pointed out the GFS is a big hit for Griffin Northward. Actually well below I-20 north  lots of time to go and in my opinion the EURO starts to lose street credit after the run tonight. 

More later.


----------



## ButcherTony

GA DAWG said:


> This snow will be gone by Thursday want it? I got a big coon hunt to go to in Albany.


 so what..


----------



## Resica

Dutch said:


> I'm praying for NO SNOW.
> 
> I want to go crappie fishing Tuesday.



Don't let a little inclement weather stop you. Go fishing!!!


----------



## grewupstockcar

DDD said:


> I am on my phone so this will be short.
> 
> GFS and EURO all screaming for a snow storm Tuesday and Wednesday. The EURO is a bigger hit for NW GA and is borderline on temps from Atlanta to Athens.
> 
> As Bigox has pointed out the GFS is a big hit for Griffin Northward. Actually well below I-20 north  lots of time to go and in my opinion the EURO starts to lose street credit after the run tonight.
> 
> More later.



That's why we listen to what you say.


----------



## Belle

DDD, since Old Man Winter seems to listen to whatever you say can you PLEASE ask him to keep his snow/ice out of Elbert co.?  I sell rock to yankees and they laugh when I tell them 8 inches had me snowed in.  K thanx :-D


----------



## savreds

I'm beginning to dislike this pattern... the low tracks right across us, the snow stays way north and all we get is the cold rain and wind. 
Y'all play nice and let us in on some of the snow!!!


----------



## lbzdually

Last storm we got 8 inches in Chatsworth, will this one be more or less than that?


----------



## Unicoidawg

savreds said:


> I'm beginning to dislike this pattern... the low tracks right across us, the snow stays way north and all we get is the cold rain and wind.
> Y'all play nice and let us in on some of the snow!!!



Move.....


----------



## GA DAWG

ButcherTony said:


> so what..


  I might be snowed in an cant leave. Thats what.Plus it seems cant nobody get to work if a flurry falls. That makes me have to work harder and I get tired


----------



## BBQBOSS

Belle said:


> DDD, since Old Man Winter seems to listen to whatever you say can you PLEASE ask him to keep his snow/ice out of Elbert co.?  I sell rock to yankees and they laugh when I tell them 8 inches had me snowed in.  K thanx :-D



What kind of Rock are you selling to the yankees, Hillary????


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Steve78 said:


> Ok, stupid question...never been a big believer in this weatherman thread, but gotta give DDD credit, he has been pretty accurate in the past, but I was still skeptical. Now I am becoming a believer... So I am not up to date with all the weather lingo, what is the GFS?? and other important weather terms I need to know in order to understand some of these posts.



Got Falling Snow ??

no really the GFS, euro, NAM, and others are computer models that predict future weather as best they can based on past data inputed.


----------



## DDD

grewupstockcar said:


> How much do you guys think Cartersville would be expecting???



Cartersville would pay out big with the EURO or the GFS.

Would be 6" on the GFS or more.

EURO puts you in at 8"

Go get your sled now.



Steve78 said:


> Ok, stupid question...never been a big believer in this weatherman thread, but gotta give DDD credit, he has been pretty accurate in the past, but I was still skeptical. Now I am becoming a believer... So I am not up to date with all the weather lingo, what is the GFS?? and other important weather terms I need to know in order to understand some of these posts.



GFS is an american weather model that takes all sorts of data from planes, weather ballons, past similar data from past storms, and then it makes an educated guess as to resolve a solution every 3-6 hours.



savreds said:


> I'm beginning to dislike this pattern... the low tracks right across us, the snow stays way north and all we get is the cold rain and wind.
> Y'all play nice and let us in on some of the snow!!!



Dude, this has been the pattern.  Every one of our snows has depended on the track of the low.  The only difference with this one is the energy up in Wyoming has to interact with the low pressure to suck the cold down.  There is not enough cold out in front of it to work with.



lbzdually said:


> Last storm we got 8 inches in Chatsworth, will this one be more or less than that?



Chatsworth in my opinion would be looking at 8-10"  

N GA mountains will not need any dynamic cooling.  Below 1500 feet will need dynamic cooling and I belive as the models are showing we will get it.  How much it bombs and where... we still have 72+ hours to let the computers try to figure that out.


----------



## Belle

BBQBOSS said:


> What kind of Rock are you selling to the yankees, Hillary????





haha....just some granite Boss ;-)


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD, Ox, Miguel ... What time is the next MAJOR model update?


----------



## DDD

FlyDawg72 said:


> DDD, Ox, Miguel ... What time is the next MAJOR model update?



http://daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD, is the rain/snow line going to depend on east/west or north/south with this sytem?


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> http://daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php



DDD is so big he's spamming.


----------



## DDD

whitetaco02 said:


> DDD, is the rain/snow line going to depend on east/west or north/south with this sytem?



The snow line will depend on how much the system is able to "dig" and pull cold air down from the upper layers of the atmospher.

You know how when you pull the drain on a tub and that little water tornado forms?  Well, imagine the drain is the low pressure system and cold air is at the top of the tub.  When the water at the top of the tub gets close to the drain it pulls it down.  That is what is happening when a Low Pressure "bombs" out and pulls the the cold air down to the surface.  It rapidly cools the layers of the atmosphere and boom, you have snow.

Where that all happens, how far south, ect... will simply remain to be seen.  It could come more inland or it could be more out to sea.  Just have to watch and wait.


----------



## doenightmare

When do you think you can you make the call DDD? Folks at work will be wanting a snow map Monday morning.


----------



## DDD

BigOx, FFC just can not bring themselves to admit it.  

Without pasting the entire forecast package, the Atlanta NWS is playing their 1-2" card again.  We see what happened last time they played that game.  Idiots.


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> The snow line will depend on how much the system is able to "dig" and pull cold air down from the upper layers of the atmospher.
> 
> You know how when you pull the drain on a tub and that little water tornado forms?  Well, imagine the drain is the low pressure system and cold air is at the top of the tub.  When the water at the top of the tub gets close to the drain it pulls it down.  That is what is happening when a Low Pressure "bombs" out and pulls the the cold air down to the surface.  It rapidly cools the layers of the atmosphere and boom, you have snow.
> 
> Where that all happens, how far south, ect... will simply remain to be seen.  It could come more inland or it could be more out to sea.  Just have to watch and wait.



Makes sense!  Thanks!

Are you able to tell how far South the wrap around snow may get to?


----------



## lilburnjoe

DDD, Great job BTW !!  Do you think Gwinnett will see much snow ?


----------



## grewupstockcar

Thanks DDD!!  I will send you one of your tshirts.


----------



## Lawdog1

Thanks guys I appreciate all you do on here with the forecast!!!!


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> http://daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php



Thank you.

I guess the better question would have been, "When will YOU make your next major update?"


----------



## baseballstar

So are we exspecting more or about the same snow amouts as the last storm?


----------



## Dutch

Resica said:


> Don't let a little inclement weather stop you. Go fishing!!!



Rain even cold rain no problem I am going....snow and ice and towing a boat for an hour I am not real thrilled about.

Especially with all the non driving idiots out there on the roads


----------



## Booner Killa

I'm ready to hear the latest from the men of the hour! What's she lookin like DDD?


----------



## whitetaco02

Area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
620 pm est sat jan 22 2011

.prev discussion... /issued 335 pm est sat jan 22 2011/

short term /tonight through monday/...
No weather problems expected through the daytime sunday. The gfs/nam
are similar with forecasting a short wave and moisture that will
affect mainly n ga with light rain and/or snow sunday night into
early monday. The wave will be rather fast moving with only 20-30
percent pops for measurable precipitation sunday night with flurries
possible for the ne mountains early monday. This system will need to
be monitored for possible small snow accumualations.

Uncertainty increases through monday night with a dieing cold front
to the west and gulf of mexico low pressure expected to develop and
move to s of la. Models seem consistent with suggesting the chance
of rain or snow for far n ga monday night. Monday night pops about
30 percent for n and w ga.

Forecast low temperatures running 5-10 degrees below normal tonight
and near to 10 degrees below normal sunday night. Forecast high
temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal for sunday and monday. Mos
numbers seemed too warm for the monday high`s and favored the
forecast highs from the previous forecast package.

Long* term /tuesday through saturday/...
Models differ enough for tuesday that will significantly affect the
forecast. The nam tracks the surface low across central ga and this
track will allow for nearly all rain across n ga. The gfs and
european track the surface low farther s that suggests that rain or
snow could develop over far n ga with the possibility for
accumulations in the 1-2 inch range by days end tuesday. The passing
surface low and upper system brings more cold air in quickly tuesday
night favoring a change over or continuation of snow chances for n
ga and a possible rain/snow mix for parts of central ga. This time
frame will also need to be monitored for accumulations.*
gfs/european similar with ending precip chances for wednesday and
keeping things mainly dry through saturday. However both models are
indicating an upper trough passing by late wednesday/early thursday
and again on friday with minimal moisture associated. Both models
bring what appears to be a mainly dry cold front to the area on
saturday.


----------



## GA DAWG

I just saw weatherman on 11 say we would not get hardly a thing. He said nothing to compare to last week. They must be looking at different maps! They could atleast say. It could be a big one.We just cant tell yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I just saw weatherman on 11 say we would not get hardly a thing. He said nothing to compare to last week. They must be looking at different maps! They could atleast say. It could be a big one.We just cant tell yet.


 
Or he could be telling you the truth..


----------



## Jeff Raines

GA DAWG said:


> I just saw weatherman on 11 say we would not get hardly a thing. He said nothing to compare to last week. They must be looking at different maps! They could atleast say. It could be a big one.We just cant tell yet.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Or he could be telling you the truth..



he did say it all depends on the track of the low that hasn't even developed yet


----------



## contender*

GA DAWG said:


> I just saw weatherman on 11 say we would not get hardly a thing. He said nothing to compare to last week. They must be looking at different maps! They could atleast say. It could be a big one.We just cant tell yet.



They ain't gonna admit that they _might_ be wrong. If they did that I would say it would be followed closely by a pink slip..


----------



## grewupstockcar

I kinda feel for the weather guys.  They probably catch the brunt of everyones aggravation at the weather, like they created it or something.  People get mad if it rains, if if doesn't rain.  They aim low, high nothings right.  So...why even try too hard till they have a good handle on it. Bless 'em


----------



## bigox911

Jeff Raines said:


> he did say it all depends on the track of the low that hasn't even developed yet



Yep

That low pressure is dependent on a piece of energy that is currently sitting near Alaska and is expected to dive down to through Canada to around Texas, hopefully pop our low pressure system somewhere in the gulf, and then maybe our low pressure is going to track some how up the east coast.  The track it takes and the intensity with which it develops will dictate who gets what kind of weather and how much.  Currently, pretty much all models agree on something happening in the SE, the key question is where and that won't be narrowed down for a couple of days.  The models can waffle 50 - 100 miles run to run, and remember, it is only around 120 miles from Chattanooga to Atlanta.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

bigox911 said:


> Yep
> 
> That low pressure is dependent on a piece of energy that is currently sitting near Alaska and is expected to dive down to through Canada to around Texas, hopefully pop our low pressure system somewhere in the gulf, and then maybe our low pressure is going to track some how up the east coast.  The track it takes and the intensity with which it develops will dictate who gets what kind of weather and how much.  Currently, pretty much all models agree on something happening in the SE, the key question is where and that won't be narrowed down for a couple of days.  The models can waffle 50 - 100 miles run to run, and remember, it is only around 120 miles from Chattanooga to Atlanta.



All I know is........It's getting cold out there and the wind is picking up pretty good like sompins coming.


----------



## DDD

So with the latest run of the GFS I am starting to worry about temp issues for snow. 

Remember in weather terms this is still a long way off.


----------



## usardog

I live in Commerce and work for dekalb cty fire. I sure am looking forward to some solid info. So I can put some weight in the truck to help the 4x4 on the way home Tuesday after work. I have noticed DDD has been right in the past.


----------



## fitfabandfree

So what are you thinking?  The temps may be too warm and we just get a lot of rain instead?


----------



## grewupstockcar

Well, time will tell and if it is snow, fine, if it isn't, it's been quite a ride.... Thanks for all you do DDD.


----------



## CharlesH

A lot of what I am seeing on other weather boards is that there will be a lot of warm air higher in the atmosphere and the snow/rain will not be able to cool it thus we will have all rain.....now DDD is the man when it comes to this stuff, but that is what I've gathered.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> So with the latest run of the GFS I am starting to worry about temp issues for snow.
> 
> Remember in weather terms this is still a long way off.



well if its not all snow plz plz be all rain...no freezing rain allowed


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> well if its not all snow plz plz be all rain...no freezing rain allowed



With this set up it will either be snow or rain.  Not freezing rain.  There is not enough cold air at the surface to be trapped and get the freezing rain.  Nothing like last week.

And yes, I am starting to think it maybe 34 and raining.  The mountains would still be in good shape.  This is more than 72 hours away.  Remember on the Christmas storm we did the same thing.  

Time... we need more time.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Man.... my brother went out and bought 4 sleds tonight.  lol


----------



## jcountry

DDD said:


> With this set up it will either be snow or rain.  Not freezing rain.  There is not enough cold air at the surface to be trapped and get the freezing rain.  Nothing like last week.
> 
> And yes, I am starting to think it maybe 34 and raining.  The mountains would still be in good shape.  This is more than 72 hours away.  Remember on the Christmas storm we did the same thing.
> 
> Time... we need more time.




This is the vibe I have been getting as well.   I just don't think it will be quite cold enough to cause anything too crazy.


----------



## grewupstockcar

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/winter-storm-photo


----------



## baseballstar

In southern Dawson county are you still think it will be a snow event or rain event??

I hope snow....


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> With this set up it will either be snow or rain.  Not freezing rain.  There is not enough cold air at the surface to be trapped and get the freezing rain.  Nothing like last week.
> 
> *And yes, I am starting to think it maybe 34 and raining.*  The mountains would still be in good shape.  This is more than 72 hours away.  Remember on the Christmas storm we did the same thing.
> 
> Time... we need more time.



Please work on this - it deeply saddens me.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> With this set up it will either be snow or rain.  Not freezing rain.  There is not enough cold air at the surface to be trapped and get the freezing rain.  Nothing like last week.
> 
> And yes, I am starting to think it maybe 34 and raining.  The mountains would still be in good shape.  This is more than 72 hours away.  Remember on the Christmas storm we did the same thing.
> 
> Time... we need more time.



DANG DDD I done got erybody ready for this thang.  But I's still watchin you.  Winder slang.


----------



## savreds

Just got back from taking the youngest one to the circus and had to catch up on a page of posts





Unicoidawg said:


> Move.....




I would not have any problem living up your way... if I could just convince the wife to move!




DDD said:


> Dude, this has been the pattern.  Every one of our snows has depended on the track of the low.  The only difference with this one is the energy up in Wyoming has to interact with the low pressure to suck the cold down.  There is not enough cold out in front of it to work with.
> 
> 
> 
> .




I guess I should have said these patterns... we just need that snow line to move another 250 - 300 miles south  



Snow hogs!!!


----------



## topfuelgirl

Hello Topfuelgirl has arrive from P.com!!!!


----------



## westcobbdog

doenightmare said:


> Please work on this - it deeply saddens me.



^^ doesn't like work so much.


----------



## doenightmare

westcobbdog said:


> ^^ doesn't like work so much.



Like many times before -


----------



## bigox911

The euro is still rootin for us!


----------



## todd03blown

bigox911 said:


> The euro is still rootin for us!



Sweet!


----------



## Crooked Stick

Here's a question for you- can I keep my appts for tuesday in Gwinnett???????


----------



## bigox911

Well here is where the NOAA HPC is saying the snow is going to fly.  Yesterday this map didn't really even have anything on it so that shows just how changing this situation is.  Still disagreement as to when, where, and how much so we're just going to have to see if any consistency forms in the different models, run to run, about the track and how strong it is.  Have a good Sunday


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

bigox911 said:


> Well here is where the NOAA HPC is saying the snow is going to fly. Yesterday this map didn't really even have anything on it so that shows just how changing this situation is. Still disagreement as to when, where, and how much so we're just going to have to see if any consistency forms in the different models, run to run, about the track and how strong it is. Have a good Sunday


----------



## FlyDawg72

Not much thread activity after DDD dropped the "34 and rain" bomb last night ...what's the latest?


----------



## Resica

-2 overnight here.


----------



## jcountry

I think this system will be a dud  (at least for Atlanta and points south.)  It looks (to my less than expert eye) that a lot more things have to happen to make this system come together for a big event than the last one.

The last one was obvious, it was plain that something bad was going to happen,. and it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances to result in a non-snow/ice event.   This one looks like it will take an extraordinary set of circumstances to result in winter weather.  It just ain't gonna be cold enough from ATL southward.  I think any snow or ice we have will quickly disappear.  I know a lot of forecasters changes their temperatures a few days out last time, but wunderground and intellicast haven't yet.  Maybe something for the mountains to get excited about, but I am not too concerned this time for the Atlanta area.

Personally, I think this one may be bad in the mountains, and maybe through the Carolinas, but I just don't see anything near as bad as the last one shaping up.   I defer to DDD, he knows a lot more than me, but I did know enough to see that the last one was gonna be a monster.


----------



## Fro1911nut

Area forecast discussion. . .updated
national weather service peachtree city ga
349 am est sun jan 23 2011

//issued at 349 am est sun jan23 2011//

.short term /today through wednesday/...
Surface high pressure will dominate today...then slip east and
weaken on monday as an upper trough and associated surface low
deepen over texas. The gfs...nam and ecmwf are in good agreement
through early tuesday... And show the tx low slipping into the nw
gulf monday night and deepening off the la coast by 7 am tuesday
morning. The gfs and ecmwf begin to differ on tuesday as the
faster ecmwf tracks the surface low into south ga by tuesday
evening... Then along the south and north carolina`s coasts by
wednesday morning. The slower gfs tracks the low into south al by
tuesday evening... Then into east central ga by early wednesday
morning. The ecmwf has been more consistent with its timing and
track...so have leaned slightly toward its solution. However...much
uncertainty has warranted holding onto lingering rain chances
over ne and east central ga on wednesday.

As for the wintry weather threat... It appears the track and
timing of the surface low will aid in holding area temps mostly
above freezing during the peak rain periods... Tuesday- tuesday
night. May see some light snow initially over north ga early
tuesday morning as the initial rain spreads up from the sw...but
this should change over to rain by mid tuesday morning. Current
thinking is the greater moisture and rain chances will hold off
until temps warm above freezing tuesday morning... And therefore
hinder any significant snow accumulations across north ga. The
greater rain chances will be tuesday night as the surface low
pushes across the state. At this time... Thickness values suggest
possibly a mix of rain and snow over north and parts of central ga
tuesday night... But with little to no accumulations. However...
Cannot rule out possibly 1 to 2 inches in the higher elevations of
north ga where wet bulb temps could fall below freezing. Wrap
around moisture could linger long enough to continue a light snow
threat across north ga through wednesday morning as the cold air
begins to advect in from the north...but the departing moisture
should be limited...and therefore... No significant accumulations
are expected. Otherwise...expect clearing conditions wednesday
afternoon with another cold dome of high pressure building down
from canada. Have leaned toward the cooler met highs for today...
Then stay stayed close to mav numbers for the remaining periods.


----------



## baseballstar

hey DDD how are the updates lookin ?


----------



## DDD

Unless some things change this is going to be a huge miss and mostly 34 and raining below 1500 feet. 

You folks in the mountains may need snow blowers. It could be tree snapping snow up there. Tonight and this afternoons run of the euro will be very telling.


----------



## baseballstar

I live in northern Forsyth county will i see rain or snow? DDD


----------



## baseballstar

Well if this one is a bust... then is the storm of the 28th  looking more impressive??


----------



## baseballstar

I wish This would be all snow !!!!!!


----------



## DDD

Unless the Euro is different I may fold on this one. Looks just too warm for snow. The mountains should be fine but everyone else looks like rain and lots of it.


----------



## deermeat270

Fizzle ......... pop


----------



## Robbie101

Rain is fine by me!!!


----------



## lbzdually

TWC is saying 39 for a high Tuesday and NOAA is saying 48.  TWC channel is also saying no moisture until Tuesday, whereas NOAA says rain from Monday on.  Why the huge difference?


----------



## aquaholic

*rain is good*

kids go to school


----------



## contender*

DDD said:


> The mountains should be fine but everyone else looks like rain and lots of it.




What does that supposed to mean??


----------



## baseballstar

where is the cut off line for snow to rain


----------



## grewupstockcar

I know a lot of people are beathing a sigh.  I'm snow weary myself.


----------



## DDD

contender* said:


> What does that supposed to mean??



You mean what IS that supposed to mean? 

It means the mountains are in for a heck of snow.  Its sorta what we have been talking about.


----------



## baseballstar

DDD where is the cut off line going to be at to get snow vs rain


----------



## DDD

So the EURO says... "Not so fast my friends."  

The EURO teases just enough to keep hope alive.  From the EURO ATL looks to be right on the line from going from Rain to Snow.

What is wayyyyyy more interesting is the NEW system the EURO pops up on Friday.  Pretty wild stuff.

If the GFS would start trending towards the EURO I would start to think we may get snow after all.  

I am really, really frustrated.  I don't know who to believe.  The Canadian is somewhat in the middle of the EURO and GFS which would probably not be a bad way to go at this point.

It could be a situation where we start out as rain and it rains and then all of a sudden because the rain has pulled the cold air down to the surface, it turns over to heavy snow and dumps out about 2-4".  I really could see that scenario with this set up.  

This is not easy to tell which way to go... especially now that this looks to occur on Wednesday.  The system has slowed way up.


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> So the EURO says... "Not so fast my friends."
> 
> The EURO teases just enough to keep hope alive.  From the EURO ATL looks to be right on the line from going from Rain to Snow.
> 
> What is wayyyyyy more interesting is the NEW system the EURO pops up on Friday.  Pretty wild stuff.
> 
> If the GFS would start trending towards the EURO I would start to think we may get snow after all.
> 
> I am really, really frustrated.  I don't know who to believe.  The Canadian is somewhat in the middle of the EURO and GFS which would probably not be a bad way to go at this point.
> 
> It could be a situation where we start out as rain and it rains and then all of a sudden because the rain has pulled the cold air down to the surface, it turns over to heavy snow and dumps out about 2-4".  I really could see that scenario with this set up.
> 
> This is not easy to tell which way to go... especially now that this looks to occur on Wednesday.  The system has slowed way up.


----------



## DDD

baseballstar said:


> DDD where is the cut off line going to be at to get snow vs rain



 

You got an 8 ball handy?  

If someone had to make me give a guess, I would say Gainesville, to Kennesaw northward.
I have about 5% confidence in that call.  

It simply is not easy when you are depending on dynamic cooling to make your rain change to snow.


----------



## baseballstar

DDD said:


> You got an 8 ball handy?
> 
> If someone had to make me give a guess, I would say Gainesville, to Kennesaw northward.
> I have about 5% confidence in that call.
> 
> It simply is not easy when you are depending on dynamic cooling to make your rain change to snow.




maybe we can get about 5+ inches here in forsyth county like we did the last time !! i guess we will have to wait and see but DDD if we are in the all snow section how much snow are you exspecting


----------



## rjcruiser

DDD said:


> Unless the Euro is different I may fold on this one. Looks just too warm for snow. The mountains should be fine but everyone else looks like rain and lots of it.



Way to let the air out of the balloon. 



DDD said:


> So the EURO says... "Not so fast my friends." .



And all of the sudden, the balloon gets some air back 

I need rain this week.  Snow on Friday is fine..just rain in the middle.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> So the EURO says... "Not so fast my friends."
> 
> The EURO teases just enough to keep hope alive.  From the EURO ATL looks to be right on the line from going from Rain to Snow.
> 
> What is wayyyyyy more interesting is the NEW system the EURO pops up on Friday.  Pretty wild stuff.
> 
> If the GFS would start trending towards the EURO I would start to think we may get snow after all.
> 
> I am really, really frustrated.  I don't know who to believe.  The Canadian is somewhat in the middle of the EURO and GFS which would probably not be a bad way to go at this point.
> 
> It could be a situation where we start out as rain and it rains and then all of a sudden because the rain has pulled the cold air down to the surface, it turns over to heavy snow and dumps out about 2-4".  I really could see that scenario with this set up.
> 
> This is not easy to tell which way to go... especially now that this looks to occur on Wednesday.  The system has slowed way up.



I'm getting dizzy.


----------



## blondiega1

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I'm getting dizzy.



I know right!


----------



## crokseti

I'm startin to feel like the big red X on the target up here.


----------



## baseballstar

DDD do you have any maps to show us?


----------



## contender*

DDD said:


> You mean what IS that supposed to mean?
> 
> It means the mountains are in for a heck of snow.  Its sorta what we have been talking about.



Sorry, didn't realize we were having sentence structure lessons along with the weather forecasts...


As far as the "what we were talking about" statement. Being one that was kinda hoping that the mountains didn't get snow or ice this go around (as I can't work if school is called for bad weather) I was hoping your statement "the mountains should be fine" to mean that we would be getting a cold rain as well. Sorry, guess my mind reading skills aren't as fine tuned as your weather forecasting skills....


Keep up the good work.


----------



## DDD

Birmingham says I am not off my rocker:

FXUS64 KBMX 232112
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE GULF LOW SYSTEM MON THRU WED CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY SYSTEM OF
INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SO LET`S GET RIGHT TO IT.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP REMAINS THE SAME AS EACH FORECAST MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROF AND A DEVELOPING GULF LOW.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH EACH
OTHER IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE PERIOD MON THRU WED.

THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NW GULF ON MON AND THEN SLIDES ENE INTO S
GA BY WED MRNG. PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MON EVENING
IN THE WEST AND THE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP THRU TUE AFTN. *THE
REALLY TRICKY PART COMES TUE EVNG INTO WED MRNG. AT FIRST GLANCE
THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SNOW SET UP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AS FAR AS THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW...BUT
THINGS JUST AREN`T ADDING UP TO MUCH SNOW JUST YET. HOWEVER THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EVEN THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF CHANGE IN
SFC TEMPS AND/OR THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.*
*AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z GFS...WE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR
WHEN IT COMES TO GETTING ALL RAIN OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW*. THE GFS
IS SPITTING OUT LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF AND FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP RATES
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MRNG. THESE HIGH RATES ARE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL AND PRETTY DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
*THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THESE PRECIP RATES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO BRING COOLER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC*.
GFS PROFILE TEMPS AT THE SFC (AND UP TO AROUND 850 MB) ARE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 300 MB.
THEREFORE ALL IT WILL TAKE IS COOLING THE SFC TEMPS DOWN BY A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR US TO SEE RAIN SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
PORTION OF THE CWA. *IF YOU TAKE THE GFS SOUNDING AT 12Z WED FOR
ANYWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL AL AND COOL THE LOWEST LEVELS BY LET`S SAY
2 DEGREES THEN YOU COULD HAVE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT EVEN IT IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE*. FOR NOW...FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING RAIN OR SNOW
WORDING IN FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT/WED MRNG...WITH ALL
RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS TEMPS ARE JUST TOO WARM THERE. WILL WAIT AND
SEE IF MODELS TREND SFC TEMPS COOLER...*IF THAT HAPPENS THEN WILL
HAVE TO MAKE SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX GRIDS AND INTRODUCE
SOME SNOW AMOUNTS*. MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA BY WED AFTN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THUS ENDING PRECIP CHANCES.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD, it seems this storm has the most uncertainty of the last three storms. It may be 24 hours out before we have a real clue as to what is going to happen. What do your think?


----------



## DDD

deerhuntingdawg said:


> DDD, it seems this storm has the most uncertainty of the last three storms. It may be 24 hours out before we have a real clue as to what is going to happen. What do your think?



Could not be a truer statement.  Maybe more like 6-12 hours.


----------



## bigox911

deerhuntingdawg said:


> DDD, it seems this storm has the most uncertainty of the last three storms. It may be 24 hours out before we have a real clue as to what is going to happen. What do your think?





DDD said:


> Could not be a truer statement.  Maybe more like 6-12 hours.



Mellish underscores this in the first part of his blog today...

http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/



> Don't worry, that was just an attention getting headline. It's the worst kind for forecasters. If you did not read my previous post you should do so now. The forecast page and on-air will be updated even when the blog is not. If you did not get a chance to try the "learn if you dare" tutorial post from Jan 7th now would be a good time to read it, as this is that type system at least in part.
> Bad news from the NWS HQ, they've sent an administrative message indicating there are a lot of missing obs from the upper air balloon release today throwing a real wrench in forecasting models. Two of the sites AWOL are Peachtree City, GA and Birmingham, AL. This means if today's model cycles show big changes we won't know if its significant or a result of bad data ingest. Thankfully, there is time for them to fix it before we get to Wednesday.
> Models agree only on the general setup, but not the fine (and all important) thermal details. The exact track varies on each model some inland, some South and East of the Gulf/Atlantic Coast. Plus the models known weakness is just this type of pattern unfortunately. A wiggle of just 50 miles on the track or 2-4 degrees in temp anywhere in the vertical (all within the NORMAL margin of error) and its surprise city, or some kind of different outcome scenario.
> The key is, that with cold air aloft, and heavy precipitation falling out of a very cold upper atmosphere, the models might not be handling low-level temperatures very well. We just can not know for sure. The snowflakes will be very cold as they fall, cooling the atmosphere, and when they melt falling into warmer air, that will cool the atmosphere more. The simultaneous melting, partial evaporation, and refreezing absorbs heat and releases heat at the microscale. Some of the models are also showing strong WAA warm air advection at 850mb about 5,000 feet. That can be a snow killer. Bottom line, if the models are not handling these complex fluxes well, we could wind up with snow Tuesday afternoon or evening. But, if they are handling it, it will stay 40 or so most of the day Tuesday, with rain, and then a changeover to light snow late early Wed. morning, but no big deal around I-20 or South. The mountains toward TN could be looking at a big deal one way or another.
> However, the 500mb low closes off and the vorticity max with it is impressive to create strong 700mb omega. For that reason, while it looks like more rain than anything else for Metro Atlanta, I CAN NOT just say its gonna be rain case closed game over that's that.
> To put it another way, verbatim the model predicted thermodynamic diagrams (vertical sounding profiles) show too warm for snow, just rain! The million dollar question is are those projected thermals gonna prove right? Since its a known model weakness we just have to wait and see.
> With the upper-level low spinning overhead, convective snow flurry squalls could form Wednesday mixed with sun.
> Bottom line...this is a very complicated system and our confidence in the forecast is unusually low. Closed upper level low look out for surprises below.



That upper level low he is talking about is the X right over GA...the rest of the blog is a very good read about the small margin of error between 6-8 inches of snow and cold rain.







Last sentence in the blog...



> And yes, there are more winter threats showing up in the medium to long-range but lets deal one at a time.


----------



## Jacketfan89

I remember DDD saying this was set up similar to the 93 storm. Whoever remembers that store remembers that it definitely wasn't forecasted. I think the recent storm and of course newer technology is getting this thing more news coverage.

Had we not had last weeks storm I doubt the locals news would've even touched it.

But even with all the technology in the world it is tough to predict the temperature within a degree and when you're on that 33-34 degree range there's really now way to tell. Hopefully the new models trend towards lower temps...we need it to push on down!


----------



## Fro1911nut

How about the small storm last February right before Valentines day. Was a Friday if I remember right. It was supposed to be rain, maybe a snow shower. At around 1:00 I left my home off Wade Green and drove to W Cobb/Brookstone part of Kennesaw. By the time I got to Stilesboro and Mars Hill I could not see the road and was little visibility 50yds out. They said it wasn't going to do antying that day. I think this one is going to a be line tight rope walking a razor blade.


----------



## DDD

Very, very complicated.

For those wanting a map or predictions, it simply is not happening right now.  No way.  Generally I think the mountains are a lock.  They are up high enough and will get enough lift to get a pretty major snow.  Below 1500 feet even pro mets are not sure.

Now throw in the observation balloons in BMX and ATL not giving feedback who knows.


----------



## fitfabandfree

DDD, is this just a hobby for you?  Just curious as to how you learned to read the models.  Us newbies don't know much about you.


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> Very, very complicated.
> 
> For those wanting a map or predictions, it simply is not happening right now.  No way.  Generally I think the mountains are a lock.  They are up high enough and will get enough lift to get a pretty major snow.  Below 1500 feet even pro mets are not sure.
> 
> Now throw in the observation balloons in BMX and ATL not giving feedback who knows.



I read on the other forum that they were having problems with the balloons.  How convenient!


----------



## blondiega1

fitfabandfree said:


> DDD, is this just a hobby for you?  Just curious as to how you learned to read the models.  Us newbies don't know much about you.



Good question!


----------



## fitfabandfree

blondiega1 said:


> Good question!



Thanks.  I thought so too.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> Very, very complicated.
> 
> For those wanting a map or predictions, it simply is not happening right now.  No way.  Generally I think the mountains are a lock.  They are up high enough and will get enough lift to get a pretty major snow.  Below 1500 feet even pro mets are not sure.
> 
> Now throw in the observation balloons in BMX and ATL not giving feedback who knows.



Still with you DDD. You ARE the man.


----------



## Resica

fitfabandfree said:


> DDD, is this just a hobby for you?  Just curious as to how you learned to read the models.  Us newbies don't know much about you.



That's just how he likes it.


----------



## fitfabandfree

But..but...but... we want to know.


----------



## PEPPERHEAD

Dear newbies......... Shhhhhhhhh. Let the weather man talk.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fitfabandfree said:


> DDD, is this just a hobby for you? Just curious as to how you learned to read the models. Us newbies don't know much about you.


 
He's actually a professional referee, you've prolly seen him on TV. He's 4'2" tall and 95 lbs soaking wet, wears black rim glasses with scotch tape holding them together and wears a pocket protector...


----------



## fitfabandfree

PEPPERHEAD said:


> Dear newbies......... Shhhhhhhhh. Let the weather man talk.



I'm waiting for him to do just that.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He's actually a professional referee, you've prolly seen him on TV. He's 4'2" tall and 95 lbs soaking wet, wears black rim glasses with scotch tape holding them together and wears a pocket protector...



So how about you Miguel?  How do you know how to read the maps and models?


----------



## Tag-a-long

fitfabandfree said:


> So how about you Miguel?  How do you know how to read the maps and models?



He stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

fitfabandfree said:


> So how about you Miguel? How do you know how to read the maps and models?


 


Tag-a-long said:


> He stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night!


 

Not just last night. I go there once a month to keep up my continuing HIE Met credits..


----------



## jcountry

The closer we get, the less I like this storm....  

This is the classic setup for a sucker punch.  ATL guys say "no prob, it will be all rain" so everyone things "O.K. cool."  

Then, some extra evaporational cooling and WHAM!  Sleet. ice and snow all over!  One saving grace is that it doesn't look to stay cold for a very long time-certainly not below freezing for days.

The flipside is enough ice in some trees, and a little wind, and a whole bunch of people wake up without power.  Even one night just a touch below freezing is enough to cause a real electrical outage disaster in this state.

-We will see.  Gonna be a real barn-burner, looks like now. Right on the edge of huge winter storm or big rain.


----------



## shakey gizzard

jcountry said:


> The closer we get, the less I like this storm....
> 
> This is the classic setup for a sucker punch.  ATL guys say "no prob, it will be all rain" so everyone things "O.K. cool."
> 
> Then, some extra evaporational cooling and WHAM!  Sleet. ice and snow all over!  One saving grace is that it doesn't look to stay cold for a very long time-certainly not below freezing for days.
> 
> The flipside is enough ice in some trees, and a little wind, and a whole bunch of people wake up without power.  Even one night just a touch below freezing is enough to cause a real electrical outage disaster in this state.
> 
> -We will see.  Gonna be a real barn-burner, looks like now. Right on the edge of huge winter storm or big rain.



Have chainsaws, will travel!


----------



## fitfabandfree

So now suddenly, they (TWC) are showing more chances of snow on Jan 30th and Feb 1st.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

fitfabandfree said:


> So now suddenly, they (TWC) are showing more chances of snow on Jan 30th and Feb 1st.



I just saw that forecast too. Long way off though.


----------



## baseballstar

(TWC) says they are NOT exspecting a crippling snowstorm like the last one.


----------



## DDD

The trend is our friend. The NAM is very far south. Biloxi to pc beach to savanah. This is a winning track and it is what I want to see. Would not surprise me if the GFS was very similar.


----------



## CharlesH

DDD am I correct in reading on a few other boards that the freezing line is also dipping more south and a good deformation band is a possibility?  Definitely don't know enough to ask on those boards so I thought I'd bring it over here.

If that's the case the models I've seen look well......


----------



## DDD

jcountry said:


> The closer we get, the less I like this storm....
> 
> This is the classic setup for a sucker punch.  ATL guys say "no prob, it will be all rain" so everyone things "O.K. cool."
> 
> The flipside is enough ice in some trees, and a little wind, and a whole bunch of people wake up without power.  Even one night just a touch below freezing is enough to cause a real electrical outage disaster in this state.
> 
> -We will  rain.



There is absolutely no chance of ice with this storm. It will be all rain, rain to snow, or all snow. No ice.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> The trend is our friend. The NAM is very far south. Biloxi to pc beach to savanah. This is a winning track and it is what I want to see. Would not surprise me if the GFS was very similar.



Very interesting! Things are changing every few hours! Wild ride for the next 36 hrs!


----------



## yelper43

This thread is as hot as when Moebirds went to Montana!


----------



## DDD

CharlesH said:


> DDD am I correct in reading on a few other boards that the freezing line is also dipping more south and a good deformation band is a possibility?  Definitely don't know enough to ask on those boards so I thought I'd bring it over here.
> 
> If that's the case the models I've seen look well......



Yes.  The NAM is on a much more southerly track.  Its weird with the temps too.  You look at the 850 freezing line and you say... awe cool... freezing line is sliding south.  But then go look at the surface temps and they are 2-3 above freezing.  So IF they are right you need dynamic cooling with high precip rates to drag the cold air to the surface and set up shop.

If you get under a deformation band you are in business quicker than somewhere that is just getting heavy precip.  Back 2 winters ago, Athens got put under a heavy deformation band with a very similar system that bombed out and hit Athens with like 8-10 inches of snow.  I am only 20 miles west of Athens and we had like 4" and most of it did not stick.

With the ground temps being cold and the as long as the snow stayed on the ground here 2 weeks ago, sticking will not be an issue.  If it does snow, it will be interesting to see if it stays because the EURO and GFS are starting to point towards a system on Friday that could be round 2.  It's what some of you mentioned from TWC.


Also, it is key to point out, do not ask me or Miguel (I am refusing to answer this question anymore, I swear this is the last time)  Why does TWC show 40 and snow?  and the NWS shows 49 on the same day for my forecast?

People, for the absolute last time, most of those are worth as much as the hope and change you were promised 2 years ago.  worthless.  

If an intern at TWC or NWS happens to change those temps to the correct sounding consider yourself lucky.  They are pointless to go by.  Go back and read 2 weeks ago on the last storm.  2 days before we went into the deep freeze and they still showed 40 for a high after the snow was gone.  5 days before that I told you it was going to be some serious cold.  

A good read today is Kirk Melish's blog.  I suggest everyone read it.  It explains the unpredictable nature of this system.  

I am going to bed very much happy tonight.  I have to be in the office tomorrow early so I am calling it a night, but know this, if this thing goes south and pulls the cold in, if you think 2 weeks ago's snow was deep... just you wait.

Night.


----------



## DDD

yelper43 said:


> This thread is as hot as when Moebirds went to Montana!



How is Moebirds?


----------



## jcountry

I just read Kirk's blog.  Man- this system is complicated.

I do think it is good that we shouldn't be looking at several days of ice, though.


----------



## Unicoidawg

yelper43 said:


> This thread is as hot as when Moebirds went to Montana!



Now that was a good thread.........


----------



## LibertyLady

Hm, well. We bought a generator for the last storm and then returned it because I was sure the worst of the winter weather was over. Bought it AGAIN because of the early showings on this storm. (thankfully Home Depot still had our ONE generator left). Got put on a waiting list for sleds from the local hardware store. FINALLY got those in after ordering off amazon (so now we'll have five sleds) ordered REAL waterproof gloves off amazon for my kids (hello? Why can you not buy those down here? *sigh* I miss Illinois sooooo much) I have groceries. If THIS storm doesn't pan out, I am prolly gonna pout. A lot.


----------



## GA DAWG

Btt


----------



## shakey gizzard

GA DAWG said:


> Btt



No coons 4u!


----------



## JD

What's the word this morning?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

JD said:


> What's the word this morning?


 
Rain, and not much at that.


----------



## catdieselpower89

This thread has been very entertaining to say the least, thanks to you guys, if it snows I think we're going to be ready, or if it just comes a cold rain, I think we're equipped for that too! Keep up the good work!


----------



## Naturegirl

Just wanna say thanks guys.  It's fun watching you talk about this.  I will say I'd rather be prepared and it not happen than to be surprised!!  

However; I don't think Ole Man Winter is done with us.  Hoping I never have to use those chains I bought.


----------



## LibertyLady

I have never seen a forecast change LITERALLY every 15 minutes like this.


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> Also, it is key to point out, do not ask me or Miguel (I am refusing to answer this question anymore, I swear this is the last time)  Why does TWC show 40 and snow?  and the NWS shows 49 on the same day for my forecast?
> 
> People, for the absolute last time, most of those are worth as much as the hope and change you were promised 2 years ago.  worthless.





Thanks for the insight guys, I have moved past this storm and it's complicated nature    and have begun looking forward to the one later in the week. 

Anyone care to take a stab as to how this event may unfold... or is much of it dependent on tomorrow's outcome?


----------



## Steven Farr

We woke up to a good dusting of snow and have a 3 hour delay on school.  What are the chances that we add to that up here in the mountians the next few days?


----------



## LibertyLady

FlyDawg72 said:


> Thanks for the insight guys, I have moved past this storm and it's complicated nature    and have begun looking forward to the one later in the week.
> 
> Anyone care to take a stab as to how this event may unfold... or is much of it dependent on tomorrow's outcome?



I will! I will!! I think it all depends on that sucker tracking further south than we think...BUT, I'm betting on at least SOME snow out of it-as for the amount, I"ll decide tomorrow..


----------



## beginnersluck

Steven Farr said:


> We woke up to a good dusting of snow and have a 3 hour delay on school.  What are the chances that we add to that up here in the mountians the next few days?



We had a little dusting...probably 1/4 inch here in Toccoa. None at my house just inside Banks Co. Hope we get some from this storm...would like a big SNOW BOMB!!!


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Rain, and not much at that.



Dude, what have you been smoking?


----------



## DEERFU

Thanks for all the updates gentlemen it's very much appreciated I've lived here in Atlanta almost 44 years so nothing about the weather surprises me. I'll take what we get and be content with it. I can remember watching Guy Sharpe as a kid and was purdy darn good at forecasting without all the technology we have today. He was also not afraid to be honest about it when he wasn't. These threads remind me of him a little . Yawl keep up the good work, it's entertaining to a weather watcher to say the least


----------



## DDD

This is the simulated radar, notice how much precip is up in the Carolinas, that will have moved through here by late Monday night.

The moisture back in Mississippi is going to be all snow.  Temps will have crashed down below freezing.  Typicaly in systems past, this usually heavy wet snow and it piles up quick.

It is the reason the HPC has posted this out this morning:






The Canadian modeling is a little more agressive with the moisture, and the GFS is about the same, although the GFS just simply is a waffling piece of squeeze.

Candian:






GFS's precip, in this picture that will be all snow on the back side of the LPS:


----------



## FlyDawg72

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Rain, and not much at that.



...right, because TWC show 40 and the NWS shows 49...


----------



## LibertyLady

So...now..I'm even more unsure. Really? this is the BEST the models can give us?


----------



## DDD

Very simply put, these Upper Level Lows are VERY unpredictable.  The models never handle these things perfectly, in the sense that they usually end up surprising someone.  The EURO is more progressive with how far south it sends the moisture, but I think I-20 north is the most in the game and the mountains for sure as you can tell from the HPC's forecast above.

It will be mostly rain and a decent amount on the front side tonight and tomorrow and then as it rotates through the wee hours of Wednesday morning the backside of the comma head will have temps just plumitting and wherever it is snowing it will be coming in good measure.

It will hang around a little while on Wednesday but not very long into Thursday as temps come up Thursday afternoon.

Still a lot of fine tuning to go, but nothing to worry about today or tomorrow.  In the way of snow this should be mostly a Tuesday night Wednesday morning thing.


----------



## DDD

LibertyLady said:


> So...now..I'm even more unsure. Really? this is the BEST the models can give us?



It can not be stressed enough that Upper Level Lows are handled poorly by modeling.  The things that go on in the upper layers of the atmosphere are just not as easy as High pressure here and moisture here... those things are easy to figure out.

Upper level stuff is dynamic and if the cold air plumets and you have moisture to work with, it could be a wow factor for someone.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

FlyDawg72 said:


> ...right, because TWC show 40 and the NWS shows 49...


 
Nope, I don't watch weather on tv.


----------



## LibertyLady

What's with this Feb storm you all are predicting....?


----------



## gacowboy

Thanks DDD, That is a good summary for us. Do you think you will start a new thread on here as this weather gets closer, mostly for reports like you did on the last storm? I really appreciate your info!


----------



## DDD

FlyDawg72 said:


> ...right, because TWC show 40 and the NWS shows 49...



I see someone read the post.


----------



## LibertyLady

I don't watch TWC or NWS for nuffin' ...no point-they're always wrong!


----------



## DDD

gacowboy said:


> Thanks DDD, That is a good summary for us. Do you think you will start a new thread on here as this weather gets closer, mostly for reports like you did on the last storm? I really appreciate your info!



Hadn't really thought about it.  If it plays out by tomorrow afternoon like I think it will, I might start an obs thread.  What stinks is wherever it is snowing it will be most likely in the middle of the night.

We will see what shakes out.


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> I see someone read the post.



It can be extremely difficult to remember, but I REALLY try to just shut up and listen (read)... but that post you made last night cracked me up.

I'm eagerly awaiting new updates on the next 2 days, this thing has more drama than the opening episodes of Jerseylicious!!!


----------



## DDD

Here is a picture of the EURO Wed. morning

I put the arrow in here to point out the EURO picking up on the crashing temps due to the precip rates.  That is a huge hint of some serious snow possibility.


----------



## LibertyLady

Ok, so where do you put that all important snow/rain line. Tell me Paulding Co gets white rather than wet????


----------



## bigox911

If the temp would only drop a few degrees 

At least we'll get a good soaking.  Total precip the GFS is predicting to fall by the end of the day Wednesday


----------



## DDD

Also, if you have not done so, I suggest you all watch Matthew East out of North Carolina when systems are approaching.  The guy is on his game and mentions Georgia constantly and does a much better and quicker summary of events and what you are looking at.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/


----------



## DDD

bigox911 said:


> If the temp would only drop a few degrees
> 
> At least we'll get a good soaking.  Total precip the GFS is predicting to fall by the end of the day Wednesday



Looks like not very much rain or snow.


----------



## Jeff Raines

LibertyLady said:


> Ok, so where do you put that all important snow/rain line. Tell me Paulding Co gets white rather than wet????



Just a heads up LL
These guys have heard so much what's is gonna do in my backyard(IMBY).....somebody might go postal


----------



## Steven Farr

Steven Farr said:


> We woke up to a good dusting of snow and have a 3 hour delay on school.  What are the chances that we add to that up here in the mountians the next few days?


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> Looks like not very much rain or snow.



You're right....I forgot...it's normal to see that purple in GA for one storm


----------



## LibertyLady

Jeff Raines said:


> Just a heads up LL
> These guys have heard so much what's is gonna do in my backyard(IMBY).....somebody might go postal



Absolutely, but that freezing line should be an ok question.


----------



## deermeat270

Alright I'm back in.  "just when I'm out, they suck me back in"


----------



## DDD

deermeat270 said:


> Alright I'm back in.  "just when I'm out, they suck me back in"



Welcome to the club!  I was ready to throw this thing out yesterday for sure.  Not just yet.


It still may fizzle, but the NAM is rolling now and it is dialing up some serious moisture over Louisiana.  2.0"+ of rain down there.


----------



## Backlasher82

Well, I'm walking in a Winter Wonderland this morning. Kind weird since they weren't predicting any precip until Tuesday.

Got right at 1" of snow on my deck, the road is covered and we still have a few flurries.

Guess fishing is out for today.


----------



## DDD

The NAM just hammers Mississippi.  Those rednecks out there will not know what to do.


----------



## DDD

Backlasher82 said:


> Well, I'm walking in a Winter Wonderland this morning. Kind weird since they weren't predicting any precip until Tuesday.
> 
> Got right at 1" of snow on my deck, the road is covered and we still have a few flurries.
> 
> Guess fishing is out for today.





I saw the RH's up there last night but didn't think it would squeeze out any snow.  Guess I was wrong.


----------



## DDD

What the NAM is showing in MS sould rotate our way.  Taken at face value North MS would be looking at 6-10" of snow if the NAM verified.  Unreal.


----------



## LibertyLady

DDD said:


> What the NAM is showing in MS sould rotate our way.  Taken at face value North MS would be looking at 6-10" of snow if the NAM verified.  Unreal.



Do WHAT?


----------



## DDD

For about 6-9 hours the NAM shows some serious snow from NW GA over to about Athens.  Verbatim would be a nice 2-4" from say I-20 to Cumming.  Then NE of there up towards Gainesville - Helen, it really pumps it out.  I would guess 4-8" if the NAM verified of very heavy snow rates as the comma head rotates through in the early hours of Wednesday morning.


----------



## bigox911

Well there is our low pressure popping up off the TX coast...and away we go.


----------



## shakey gizzard

bigox911 said:


> Well there is our low pressure popping up off the TX coast...and away we go.



Here she comes!


----------



## DDD

bigox911 said:


> Well there is our low pressure popping up off the TX coast...and away we go.



What is interesting is it popped at 1009 MB and is deepening quicker than progged.  

Thinks that make you go hmmm....


----------



## LibertyLady

Thar she blows!!!!!!!!!


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> What is interesting is it popped at 1009 MB and is deepening quicker than progged.
> 
> Thinks that make you go hmmm....


----------



## lilburnjoe

Kirk Melish just said to expect rain and possible storms. Then he said not to let your guard down, that these upper level lows are very unpredictable and heavy snow is not out of the question !!  Hmmm !


----------



## cliffdweller

Hey guys, I remember last year getting a deform band going here in NW Ga.  We got 6-8 inches in places.  On a big storm system like this, a similar band will probably set up and drop some serious wet snow up here in North Ga.  Some of the biggest, nicest flakes you'll ever see.  Problem is, it will be falling on very very wet ground from all the rain; but that might not matter as much as usual.


----------



## contender*

North side of Gilmer this AM had the rds either snowed over, iced or just a little of both. Gave those bus drivers up thataway a fit. I was on the south side og Gilmer, dry as a popcorn poot down there.


----------



## DDD

So the GFS is farther north than the NAM, this would be all rain for ATL.  Mountains would still win and brother NE Tennessee would be snowed under.

Its almost to the point of just watching the short term modeling and radar.  The models can still be looked at.  The simulated radar is usually very helpful at this stage as well.

Somewhere in N. GA some serious snow is going to occur.  It might be isolated or farther north than the NAM is showing but it will dump.

Just a matter of where.


----------



## DDD

Radar out of Texas is impressive, you can see the energy over OK moving north to south while the moisture is exploding just off the coast of Texas.  Just sucking it down, like gas to a flame.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php


----------



## HammerG26

DDD said:


> Radar out of Texas is impressive, you can see the energy over OK moving north to south while the moisture is exploding just off the coast of Texas.  Just sucking it down, like gas to a flame.



Is that what people are referring to when they indicate the "development of a low pressure area"?


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> .
> 
> Somewhere in N. GA some serious snow is going to occur.  It might be isolated or farther north than the NAM is showing but it will dump.
> 
> Just a matter of where.



Curious to see where in N. Ga this all plays out....


----------



## DDD

HammerG26 said:


> Is that what people are referring to when they indicate the "development of a low pressure area"?



Yep.  We need this thing to really wind up and get the lowest pressure we can possibly get.

It will be tomorrow before the models have a handle on where the LPS center will track.  That is the golden ticket right now.  Now 2 ways about it.

If it goes north, it will be all rain here and heavy snow in the mountains.  If it goes by way of Panama City, it will be heavy snow for about 6-9 hours North of I-20 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

It basically comes down to that.


----------



## HammerG26

I am like you Todd - I am near Canton, and I am anxious to see how it hits us... 
<thread hi-jack on>
BTW - those ribs LOOK amazing... I am going to try to cook some on my Big Green Egg soon... you are inspiring me. 
<thread hi-jack off>


----------



## WickedKwik

Go south baby, go south


----------



## LibertyLady

WickedKwik said:


> Go south baby, go south



YES! SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH!


----------



## beginnersluck

Agreed on going south...now bring the S-N-O-W!!!


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> What is interesting is it popped at 1009 MB and is deepening quicker than progged.
> 
> Thinks that make you go hmmm....



So it popped at 1009 and the 12z GFS at hr 6 only had it at 1012 and @42hrs it is 1008 in S. GA....wonder what it is really going to be when it comes into S. GA


----------



## blondiega1

Well for what it's worth..... "not my sinuses" are killing me which usually means the air pressure is dropping and rain is a coming.
And my left knee is the worst it's ever been and it only hurts this bad when it's turning cold.

So there ya have it folks.....straight from Blondie in Dallas!
Snow on the way!
LOL


----------



## Nicodemus

My knee hurts too.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Blondiega1 forecast does it for me LOL Gotta get to the store for my bread, eggs, milk, but the most important thing BEER!!


----------



## Jranger

blondiega1 said:


> Well for what it's worth..... "not my sinuses" are killing me which usually means the air pressure is dropping and rain is a coming.
> And my left knee is the worst it's ever been and it only hurts this bad when it's turning cold.
> 
> So there ya have it folks.....straight from Blondie in Dallas!
> Snow on the way!
> LOL



I also have Barometric knees...
I think may my sinuses are messed up from riding 65 down West Point lake at daylight yesterday though...


----------



## crackerdave

fitfabandfree said:


> I'm waiting for him to do just that.



Patience,Grasshoppa! The Weather Chief will emerge from his teepee soon.


----------



## blondiega1

Jranger said:


> I also have Barometric knees...
> I think may my sinuses are messed up from riding 65 down West Point lake at daylight yesterday though...



I always say "not my sinuses" because I went to a doctor TWICE who said there's nothing wrong with my sinuses and I've got the x-rays to PROVE IT!!

Well......the "nothing" that is wrong with my sinuses sure does hurt when rain is a coming!


----------



## fitfabandfree

crackerdave said:


> Patience,Grasshoppa! The Weather Chief will emerge from his teepee soon.



I am not known for patience.  

I am one of those people who is very organized, and likes to plan.  My lawyer tells me I am about the most organized client she has ever had, but I am also impatient because I want everything done and taken care of NOW!

I don't see the problem.


----------



## Money man

fitfabandfree said:


> I am not known for patience.
> 
> I am one of those people who is very organized, and likes to plan.  My lawyer tells me I am about the most organized client she has ever had, but I am also impatient because I want everything done and taken care of NOW!
> 
> I don't see the problem.



Hey Fit, perhaps you need a Snickers?


----------



## Jeff Raines

Y'all gonna make DDD pull a Dave Chappelle


----------



## FlyDawg72

jeff raines said:


> y'all gonna make ddd pull a dave chappelle



charlie murphy!


----------



## Jeff Raines

For all the new members that have joined to follow the weather.
May I direct your attention to the man that Made this website what it is.
Woody Coffee passed away 2 years ago today,without his direction this site would not be
http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=5719983#post5719983


----------



## threeleggedpigmy

Jeff Raines said:


> Y'all gonna make DDD pull a Dave Chappelle


----------



## LibertyLady

I get barometric headaches-was a MESS right before the last storm. Don't have one yet (too early I bet) and my birds go bananas eating just before a storm-they've emptied the feeders in one day today. Had to go buy more safflower!


----------



## DDD

Jeff Raines said:


> For all the new members that have joined to follow the weather.
> May I direct your attention to the man that Made this website what it is.
> Woody Coffee passed away 2 years ago today,without his direction this site would not be
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=5719983#post5719983


----------



## fitfabandfree

Money man said:


> Hey Fit, perhaps you need a Snickers?



I'm at work and my boss is sitting across the room, so I can't watch that yet, but I will as soon as he leaves.


----------



## fitfabandfree

Jeff Raines said:


> For all the new members that have joined to follow the weather.
> May I direct your attention to the man that Made this website what it is.
> Woody Coffee passed away 2 years ago today,without his direction this site would not be
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=5719983#post5719983



Thank you for sharing that.


----------



## DDD

The EURO is in and unless this thing gets on a more southerly track it is going to be all rain and still snowing in the mountains.

I have typed this a lot so I think I probably should start listening to what I type.  Still about 24 hours to go, but I think we are starting to realize unless this thing goes farther south, we can forget accumulating snow in ATL.  


Right now I would call for Rome over to Gainesville northward wiht the best shot. By tomorrow morning we will know for sure, but like I said, way back... It will be inside of 24 hours before the true track is realized.

T.V. talking heads will go with all rain and snow in the mountains and I believe that is the right call at this point.

If not for the Christmas snow and 2 weeks ago snow, I would be really ticked off, this has been a good chase, but I just don't think it's going to happen for anyone below say... 1500 feet.


----------



## Nitram4891

DDD said:


> If not for the Christmas snow and 2 weeks ago snow, I would be really ticked off, this has been a good chase, but I just don't think it's going to happen for anyone below say... 1500 feet.



Sounds like I'm gona have to go hang out at the top of the bank of america building (1000 feet tall + Atlanta elevation)


----------



## BBQBOSS

Nitram4891 said:


> Sounds like I'm gona have to go hang out at the top of the bank of america building (1000 feet tall + Atlanta elevation)



Yeah the rain should a little colder up that high...


----------



## Nitram4891

BBQBOSS said:


> Yeah the rain should a little colder up that high...



Hahaha... yeah i think this is going to be a nice rain for us.  I don't mind, I got some clay i need rinsed off the truck.


----------



## BBQBOSS

DDD said:


> The EURO is in and unless this thing gets on a more southerly track it is going to be all rain and still snowing in the mountains.
> 
> I have typed this a lot so I think I probably should start listening to what I type.  Still about 24 hours to go, but I think we are starting to realize unless this thing goes farther south, we can forget accumulating snow in ATL.
> 
> 
> Right now I would call for Rome over to Gainesville northward wiht the best shot. By tomorrow morning we will know for sure, but like I said, way back... It will be inside of 24 hours before the true track is realized.
> 
> T.V. talking heads will go with all rain and snow in the mountains and I believe that is the right call at this point.
> 
> If not for the Christmas snow and 2 weeks ago snow, I would be really ticked off, this has been a good chase, but I just don't think it's going to happen for anyone below say... 1500 feet.




well since this one is a bust for us, do you have anymore guinea pig opportunities??   Ive already spent that $75.


----------



## gacowboy

It may trek further south, you never know....


----------



## DDD

BBQBOSS said:


> well since this one is a bust for us, do you have anymore guinea pig opportunities??   Ive already spent that $75.



LOL! 

I will let you know.  I was informed that I missed an eating oprotunity.  Let me know the next time we have one of those close by as well.


----------



## DDD

gacowboy said:


> It may trek further south, you never know....



And this is true... now I just gotta wait.


----------



## DEERFU

BBQBOSS said:


> well since this one is a bust for us, do you have anymore guinea pig opportunities??   Ive already spent that $75.



me too! And they wouldn't let me get in line twice!


----------



## Jeff Raines

DDD said:


> LOL!
> 
> I will let you know.  I was informed that I missed an eating oprotunity.  Let me know the next time we have one of those close by as well.



yeah,you should've been there


----------



## Jranger

DDD said:


> LOL!
> 
> I will let you know.  I was informed that I missed an eating oprotunity.  Let me know the next time we have one of those close by as well.



I asked around... Nobody ever heard of DDD?


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

Rain would be nice.


----------



## BBQBOSS

DEERFU39 said:


> me too! And they wouldn't let me get in line twice!



The first thing that lady doing the paperwork said to me was, "you aint gonna pass out are ya? Cause we aint got nobody big enough here to pick you up if you do!".  

I told here that i would be ok, that I watched both of my wifes c-sections.... then she almost passed out.


----------



## Deer Fanatic

DDD- I am leaving tomorrow around noon - probably heading thru Charlotte to North Wilkesboro,NC for a Wed. at noon meeting.Returning home to balmy south Ga. on Thursday. Am I gonna need to take "oh crap I am snowed in" clothes???


----------



## usardog

Say it ann't so DDD!!! I WANT SOME MORE SNOW!! BUT this time a real snow. I agree with everyone else" GO south, Go south, GO SOUTH ALREADY."
Dear Lord Do you remember March "93. That would be nice.


----------



## Nate23

From KBMX... surprising to see snow accumulation in the I-20 corridor.


----------



## DDD

Deer Fanatic said:


> DDD- I am leaving tomorrow around noon - probably heading thru Charlotte to North Wilkesboro,NC for a Wed. at noon meeting.Returning home to balmy south Ga. on Thursday. Am I gonna need to take "oh crap I am snowed in" clothes???



I don't think so.  

You never know though with these types of systems.


----------



## DDD

Nate23 said:


> From KBMX... surprising to see snow accumulation in the I-20 corridor.



Interesting.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> And this is true... now I just gotta wait.



  What makes our forecasting of our models harder to inturup rather than Chicago or Montana? Or is that we just take for granted that the cold air will always be present in winter?


----------



## DDD

WoodsmanEd said:


> What makes our forecasting of our models harder to inturup rather than Chicago or Montana? Or is that we just take for granted that the cold air will always be present in winter?



What makes it tough is how so many things do or don't come together.  This particular system is similar to the snow we had March 1 of 2009.  

Probably snowed for 6-8 hours hard and hardly covered the ground.   It had been to warm out in front of it.  If I remember correctly it was 52° on Saturday and people swore it would not snow on Sunday.  Low and behold, it snowed to beat the band, but the ground was too warm to hold it.  

This system is very similar, it's just not wound as tight and its not going to go far enough south.  Much like a rubber band between two fingers, if you pull it down it really puts a lot of stress on the rubber band.  This thing is not going to go far enough south to "wind up tight" like the one in 2009 did.

To be quite honest, its a little early to see these Upper Level Low's and its why its not as strong.  Let this same setup happen in 6 weeks and see if we don't get a different out come.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> What makes it tough is how so many things do or don't come together.  This particular system is similar to the snow we had March 1 of 2009.
> 
> Probably snowed for 6-8 hours hard and hardly covered the ground.   It had been to warm out in front of it.  If I remember correctly it was 52° on Saturday and people swore it would not snow on Sunday.  Low and behold, it snowed to beat the band, but the ground was too warm to hold it.
> 
> This system is very similar, it's just not wound as tight and its not going to go far enough south.  Much like a rubber band between two fingers, if you pull it down it really puts a lot of stress on the rubber band.  This thing is not going to go far enough south to "wind up tight" like the one in 2009 did.
> 
> To be quite honest, its a little early to see these Upper Level Low's and its why its not as strong.  Let this same setup happen in 6 weeks and see if we don't get a different out come.



Thank you Sir still learning that is why if not certain of my theory Then I ask the Guru and I appreciate your patients in answering


----------



## Fro1911nut

Looks like Far North Alabama is going to get some fun

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250515-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN
  CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
  ALABAMA...AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
  ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO TO FOUR
  INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVIER NARROW
  BANDING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.

* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
  WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
  THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
  AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
  WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ON AREA
  ROADS...GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
  SOME SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


----------



## todd03blown

Interesting Mike...Cullman is due west of us in Canton....maybe this is a good sign ......


----------



## Fro1911nut

todd03blown said:


> Interesting Mike...Cullman is due west of us in Canton....maybe this is a good sign ......



Yea I think it is really wait and see what happens. But since they posted that..the NWS in Huntsville has filled in all of the NW Countys of Alabama 

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/alerts/region/severeWxAlertsSEUS.html


----------



## deermeat270

Fro1911nut said:


> Yea I think it is really wait and see what happens. But since they posted that..the NWS in Huntsville has filled in all of the NW Countys of Alabama
> 
> http://www.weather.com/newscenter/alerts/region/severeWxAlertsSEUS.html



The snow will stop at the GA/AL boarder we all know that.    oke:


----------



## baseballstar

How are the maps lookin?


----------



## GA DAWG

We are not going to get snow here in North Forsyth. I dont think we are but 1200 feet. Fine by me


----------



## mrs. hornet22

I just wanted to put the thread back up at the top.


----------



## mewabbithunter

Where everybody go?


----------



## LibertyLady

And the verdict isssssssssssssssss????


----------



## fitfabandfree

Every body is going on with their regularly schedule programming, because the verdict is we might get a little bit of rain.... at least for us here in Paulding County LL.


----------



## huntinglady74

I gotta ask.. Where in the world did all these people come from??????????????

Looks like my praying paid off.. Hubby might be a lil ticked at me..hehehee Wasn't ready to be snowed in with the in-laws...


----------



## fitfabandfree

We all came together from Paulding county.  We kinda flock together.


----------



## mewabbithunter

Im sure well get another shot before winter is over.


----------



## LibertyLady

I don't think anybody is writing it off just yet...


----------



## fitfabandfree

Well I am.  I'm think I'm out of this one.  I still think we will have a really good one this winter, but this one isn't going to be it.

LL, did you find any sleds?  I know where some are, but you can't go buy them all.  lol


----------



## whitetaco02

Hazardous weather outlook
national weather service peachtree city ga
835 pm est mon jan 24 2011

gaz001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260145-
baldwin-banks-barrow-bartow-bibb-bleckley-butts-carroll-catoosa-
chattahoochee-chattooga-cherokee-clarke-clayton-cobb-coweta-
crawford-crisp-dade-dawson-dekalb-dodge-dooly-douglas-emanuel-
fannin-fayette-floyd-forsyth-gilmer-glascock-gordon-greene-
gwinnett-hall-hancock-haralson-harris-heard-henry-houston-jackson-
jasper-jefferson-johnson-jones-lamar-laurens-lumpkin-macon-
madison-marion-meriwether-monroe-montgomery-morgan-murray-
muscogee-newton-north fulton-oconee-oglethorpe-paulding-peach-
pickens-pike-polk-pulaski-putnam-rockdale-schley-south fulton-
spalding-stewart-sumter-talbot-taliaferro-taylor-telfair-toombs-
towns-treutlen-troup-twiggs-union-upson-walker-walton-warren-
washington-webster-wheeler-white-whitfield-wilcox-wilkes-
wilkinson-
835 pm est mon jan 24 2011

this hazardous weather outlook is for north and central georgia.

.day one...tonight
there is a slight chance of light snow mixing with the developing
rain at onset late tonight across the northern sections with no
accumulations of snow expected.

.synopsis...low pressure will develop in the gulf of mexico late
tonight and push northeast toward the area through daybreak
tuesday.

.primary hazards...
At the onset of the precipitation...light snow may mix briefly
with the rain toward daybreak. No snow accumulations are expected
but with lows around freezing in the higher elevations...a few
roads may become hazardous late tonight into the early morning hours.

.discussion...
Moisture streaming northward in advance of a low pressure system
will allow for increasing rain chances through early tuesday. This
moisture combined with residual cold air in place could allow for
a brief period of light snow mixing with the rain.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday
the low pressure system will track across south georgia with
increasing rain chances area wide. The rain may be heavy at times
along and south of a columbus to dublin line with thunderstorms
possible by tuesday evening. Cloud to ground lightning strikes
will be the primary hazard with these storms.

Colder air will filter into the region wednesday morning as the
low departs to the northeast. Moisture will remain plentiful
however as an upper level storm system swings through. This will
allow for a period of rain mixing with and then changing to light
snow before ending wednesday evening. The best chances for
accumulations will be across the northern tier of the forecast
area...especially at the higher elevations. More details on this
event will be contained in subsequent forecasts by this office as
the event draws closer.

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.


----------



## Unicoidawg

huntinglady74 said:


> I gotta ask.. Where in the world did all these people come from??????????????



There are over 63,000 members to this site..... thats where.


----------



## huntinglady74

Unicoidawg said:


> There are over 63,000 members to this site..... thats where.



I know that.. i'm talking about all the people that joined 4 days ago?? I mean dang it DDD got a following going now?????


----------



## fitfabandfree

I've just stayed logged in and on this thread and keep it minimized.  I check in throughout the day.


----------



## Matt.M

I do find it interesting that a lot of people have the Join Date: Jan 2011.  

More the merrier......


----------



## contender*

Matt.M said:


> I do find it interesting that a lot of people have the Join Date: Jan 2011.
> 
> More the merrier......



SHHHH!! Somebody will decide to close the weather threads down just like the S&S,,,,too many folks joining primarily to see the weather threads and not the rest of the forum......


----------



## fitfabandfree

Uh oh!  I pledge to venture out into the rest of the forum tomorrow.


----------



## Paymaster

fitfabandfree said:


> Uh oh!  I pledge to venture out into the rest of the forum tomorrow.



Y'all should. You are miss'n some good stuff!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Paymaster said:


> Y'all should. You are miss'n some good stuff!



X2! Some of them have more posts than some that have been members for years!


----------



## LibertyLady

Oh, I've ventured out...I find all kinda stuff I'm excited about on here! I just don't comment on 'em.   I didn't know this site existed..and..this whole site is stuff that I am alllllllll about. So, goes to show ya, I was obviously missing something great all this time!


----------



## packrat

*yep*



Unicoidawg said:


> There are over 63,000 members to this site..... thats where.



Yep, Kinda like church, hundreds of members; but only a few show regularly and do the work, the rest show up when they need something.


----------



## Resica

Starting to look better for up here!!


----------



## Steven Farr

What is the latest?  Everyone runs off and hides once it looks like ATL is gonna get rain.


----------



## Matt.M

Observation: It's officially raining in Atlanta.


----------



## nickel back

Hmmmm.


----------



## nickel back

Matt.M said:


> Observation: It's officially raining in Atlanta.



good job


----------



## DCHunter

It's raining in Douglasville.


----------



## grewupstockcar

supposed to change to snow in Bartow tonight with 1 inch of accumulation.  To warm to stick it says.


----------



## Nicodemus

Good bit of rain down here in God`s Country, and 46 degrees.


----------



## Paymaster

Raining in Newnan and in Ephesus. I don't mind a bit.


----------



## fitfabandfree

And the rain has begun here in Paulding.


----------



## 3ringer

We have 35 degrees and rain in Buford. Temps have fallen 4 degrees in the last hour. I hate working in a cold rain.


----------



## Greene728

Paymaster said:


> Raining in Newnan and in Ephesus. I don't mind a bit.



    Got that right!


----------



## rjcruiser

packrat said:


> Yep, Kinda like church, hundreds of members; but only a few show regularly and do the work, the rest show up when they need something.


----------



## biggtruxx

Raining pretty good here hoping for a change tonight. Would be awesome to have more than two this year.


----------



## blondiega1

Ok sooo......when does the Feb 3-5th thread start????

LOL

I think I need an intervention.............................help me.......


----------



## DouglasB.

blondiega1 said:


> Ok sooo......when does the Feb 3-5th thread start????
> 
> LOL
> 
> I think I need an intervention.............................help me.......





As you've read us to say before... It only gets worse from here. Just wait till ya spread your wings among other threads. I'll warn ya now though, there is NO coming back from a Driveler thread.


----------



## LibertyLady

*sigh* rain........durn stinkin' RAIN! I guess it's hopeless praying for snow out of this one?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Cold rain blows!


----------



## SnowHunter

rain  Its a mud put up here 

I'd rather have snow!


----------



## Resica

LibertyLady said:


> *sigh* rain........durn stinkin' RAIN! I guess it's hopeless praying for snow out of this one?



Pray for it for me then!!


----------



## bigox911

Resica said:


> Pray for it for me then!!



Looks like you may cash in on this one  

What color do you fall in on these maps?  This is for tomorrow.


Probability of at least 8"







at least 4"


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

The elusive Southern snow storm..... Harder to track than an old coon.


----------



## ryano

blondiega1 said:


> Ok sooo......when does the Feb 3-5th thread start????



PLEASE NO February 3 - 5 thread!      Is something suppose to happen then and Ive just missed it? 

I leave on the 4th to drive to Tampa to board a cruiseship on the 5th.   I do have 4X4 though so if it does come during that time, I sure hope there is no ice involved and its mainly just North Ga involved.


----------



## Resica

bigox911 said:


> Looks like you may cash in on this one
> 
> What color do you fall in on these maps?  This is for tomorrow.
> 
> 
> Probability of at least 8"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> at least 4"



The red. Lot's of waffling on this one, still no watch posted here. They've gone from 6+ to 3-6 and back. I like the open ended 6+!!!!


----------



## Resica

About where the black dot is.


----------



## bigox911

Resica said:


> The red. Lot's of waffling on this one, still no watch posted here. They've gone from 6+ to 3-6 and back. I like the open ended 6+!!!!



I hope you get the +...someone on here needs a big snowfall out of this


----------



## LibertyLady

ryano said:


> PLEASE NO February 3 - 5 thread!      Is something suppose to happen then and Ive just missed it?
> 
> I leave on the 4th to drive to Tampa to board a cruiseship on the 5th.   I do have 4X4 though so if it does come during that time, I sure hope there is no ice involved and its mainly just North Ga involved.



Apparently, the END will happen on those dates-some kinda big massive giant gonna bury all of GA in white won't dig out for a month kinda storm is supposed to hit?


----------



## Resica

bigox911 said:


> I hope you get the +...someone on here needs a big snowfall out of this



Thanks Lee, me too!!! I'll let you know.


----------



## shakey gizzard

ryano said:


> PLEASE NO February 3 - 5 thread!      Is something suppose to happen then and Ive just missed it?
> 
> I leave on the 4th to drive to Tampa to board a cruiseship on the 5th.   I do have 4X4 though so if it does come during that time, I sure hope there is no ice involved and its mainly just North Ga involved.



Would'nt that extend the adventure?


----------



## Unicoidawg

ryano said:


> PLEASE NO February 3 - 5 thread!      Is something suppose to happen then and Ive just missed it?
> 
> I leave on the 4th to drive to Tampa to board a cruiseship on the 5th.   I do have 4X4 though so if it does come during that time, I sure hope there is no ice involved and its mainly just North Ga involved.



No invite........ I see how it is cruising buddy....


----------



## GA DAWG

Yep classic southern storm here. Everybody calling for a few days ago. Then it just goes away. Where are our weather speculators anyhow. We aint mad at ya!!


----------



## savreds

49 and light rain on de coast. 

I had to stay home with two sick boys today so I might as well get in on the madness. 
From the looks of the model i just looked at, we are in for some HEAVY rain later on tonight!


----------



## ryano

Unicoidawg said:


> No invite........ I see how it is cruising buddy....



Come on with it man! There is a smoking deal right now because they are trying to fill the ship up!

329.00 for an oceanview cabin for 5 nights.......Balcony for 399.00..........Royal Caribbeans Radiance of the Seas.

To keep on topic of winter weather though, PLEASE! NO SNOW for February 3 - 5


----------



## DEERFU

UBER-DIESEL said:


> The elusive Southern snow storm..... Harder to track than an old coon.


An ole 3 footed coon at that 


bigox911 said:


> I hope you get the +...someone on here needs a big snowfall out of this



Me too!!!!!!! And I also hope yawl run out of snowplows and salt


----------



## LibertyLady

DEERFU39 said:


> An ole 3 footed coon at that
> 
> 
> Me too!!!!!!! And I also hope yawl run out of snowplows and salt



They didn't run out of salt..the ding dang trucks broke down!!!!!!!!


----------



## Nicodemus

Resica said:


> About where the black dot is.





Dadgum, you`re too far up there in yankee country for us to come bail you outa trouble.


----------



## DDD

Very little if any snow out of this... even tonight.

This thing is northbound without a doubt.  Resica is going to get frog hammered.

What a complete disappointment.  These ULL's are tricky.

Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Very little if any snow out of this... even tonight.
> 
> This thing is northbound without a doubt. Resica is going to get frog hammered.
> 
> What a complete disappointment. These ULL's are tricky.
> 
> Feb 3 - 5? Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be. At least according to the 12Z GFS. Wowzers.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.



ok lets get to talking on that one then since this one is done and gone


----------



## Nitram4891

DDD said:


> Very little if any snow out of this... even tonight.
> 
> This thing is northbound without a doubt.  Resica is going to get frog hammered.
> 
> What a complete disappointment.  These ULL's are tricky.
> 
> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.



Is baiting legal in this thread?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> ok lets get to talking on that one then since this one is done and gone


 Already started it, over yonder. This one has it's elemental issues just as this last one did. It'll be interesting to watch over the next 72 to 96 hours on just how the models handle it, but I'm still putting my eggs in the end of February basket. Historically, we'll hit a week of outstandingly spectacular weather, Okame Cherry's and dafodil's will start to bloom and then BOOOM!!!!


----------



## ryano

DDD said:


> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... .



well hopefully it will "hold" about as good as this one did


----------



## fitfabandfree

Where is this over yonder you speak of?


----------



## ryano

fitfabandfree said:


> where is this over yonder you speak of?



x 2


----------



## Nitram4891

fitfabandfree said:


> Where is this over yonder you speak of?


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin'

DDD said:


> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.



Wow, thats how the TV Mets keep you coming back for more.    I'm hooked!


----------



## fitfabandfree

Hi.  My name is fitfabandfree and I'm an addict.


----------



## jcountry

fitfabandfree said:


> Hi.  My name is fitfabandfree and I'm an addict.



Me too-

I am addicted to winter weather threads!


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Already started it, over yonder. This one has it's elemental issues just as this last one did. It'll be interesting to watch over the next 72 to 96 hours on just how the models handle it, but I'm still putting my eggs in the end of February basket. Historically, we'll hit a week of outstandingly spectacular weather, Okame Cherry's and dafodil's will start to bloom and then BOOOM!!!!



LOL. Just posted over yonder.


----------



## ryano

todd03blown said:


> LOL. Just posted over yonder.



me too 

I dont want to be a party pooper but I SERIOUSLY need whatever winter weather we have coming to hold off til after the 4th


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

fitfabandfree said:


> Hi.  My name is fitfabandfree and I'm an addict.


----------



## GA DAWG

Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow


----------



## rjcruiser

jcountry said:


> Me too-
> 
> I am addicted to winter weather threads!



And they give you the same type of roller coster ride.

After a year or two of watching them, you'll realize that you just can't get too excited until 2 days out.


----------



## ryano

GA DAWG said:


> Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow


----------



## DouglasB.

GA DAWG said:


> Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow



Here Here!!!

I've always dreamed of hunting with snow on the ground. My boss says he's taking me hunting in Wisconsin this year, so we'll see if that actually happens... But man Thunder Chicken huntin' in the snow? I've never even imagined!!!

If it happens you and I.... going.


----------



## Bitteroot

GA DAWG said:


> Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow



yea, yea... they won't gobble.. and bush wackin ain't huntin...


----------



## Jeff C.

Nitram4891 said:


>


----------



## DouglasB.

Bitteroot said:


> yea, yea... they won't gobble.. and bush wackin ain't huntin...



Really? They don't gobble in the snow?  Never would have guessed.


----------



## Unicoidawg

GA DAWG said:


> Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow



I have up on Chattahochee......... they don't gobble to well.


----------



## win280

Hunted in Texas on spring .Had a freak ice storm. It was not fun and the birds would come off roost and flop to the ground and hide under a mesquite tree.26 degree, 30 mph wind and nothing to slow it down.Did i mention it was not fun.


----------



## papasmurff

DDD said:


> One thing I can say about the GA DOT.  Their staff has been cut by 1,100 people in the last 2 years.  Their budget has gotten cut deep in the last 2 years.  Yet a snow storm followed by deep cold hits and everyone wants to scream that the DOT stinks.  Well, I for one think they did the best they could with what they had.
> 
> I personally don't want to pay higher taxes for equipment that MIGHT get used once every 5 to 10 years.  No thanks.



Hey DDD thanks for the good plug for GDOT


----------



## GA DAWG

DDD, they still saying we could get a inch of snow on the back side of this system. What you think?


----------



## cjones

DouglasB. said:


> Here Here!!!
> 
> I've always dreamed of hunting with snow on the ground. My boss says he's taking me hunting in Wisconsin this year, so we'll see if that actually happens... But man Thunder Chicken huntin' in the snow? I've never even imagined!!!
> 
> If it happens you and I.... going.



Check out my avatar.   That was in Iowa.  Of course I was DEER hunting at the time.  

One 'tip' for hunting in the snow - if you're sitting, bring some sort of stool.  Once you're settled, clear the snow out from under your feet - down to dirt if possible.  It'll keep your toes from freezing as quickly

To keep it 'winter weather' related - I once went out for a quick afternoon hunt and had an unexpected snow storm move in - I was covered in 2" of snow before I finally decided that the deer were bedded down just out of my sight taking bets on how long I was going to sit there and wait for them like an idiot.


----------



## deermeat270

GA DAWG said:


> DDD, they still saying we could get a inch of snow on the back side of this system. What you think?



They called off all chances of snow for this system.  Only extreme extreme North GA will get any.

I think our chances at snow will be out to the 4th or 5th, but the latest models have even minimized that.


----------



## LibertyLady

DDD---I respectfully beg to differ about the GDOT. I stay at home and hubby had PTO so this last storm was a non-issue. HOWEVER, I do NOT anticipate this winter weather pattern will disappear anytime soon. This is *NORMAL* for winter around these parts. We've been in a prolonged period of warm/smooshy winters, but I believe that is now finally ending. It's time for this area to get up to speed. Even if they just bought plows to attach to trucks, it would be better than doing nothing. I am thinking of that cost vs. the cost of shutting down Atlanta for a week and the financial loss there. There has to be an empty warehouse somewhere they could store the blades until needed. I just don't think we're having a quirky year. From what I"ve noted, things are just getting warmed up. We've had a storm or two every year for the last 10 years. Now, this year-we've had THREE in this area plus more on the way. I'd rather them prepare than just wait it out. We don't have unlimited PTO on our hands!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

LibertyLady said:


> DDD---I respectfully beg to differ about the GDOT. I stay at home and hubby had PTO so this last storm was a non-issue. HOWEVER, I do NOT anticipate this winter weather pattern will disappear anytime soon. This is *NORMAL* for winter around these parts. We've been in a prolonged period of warm/smooshy winters, but I believe that is now finally ending. It's time for this area to get up to speed. Even if they just bought plows to attach to trucks, it would be better than doing nothing. I am thinking of that cost vs. the cost of shutting down Atlanta for a week and the financial loss there. There has to be an empty warehouse somewhere they could store the blades until needed. I just don't think we're having a quirky year. From what I"ve noted, things are just getting warmed up. We've had a storm or two every year for the last 10 years. Now, this year-we've had THREE in this area plus more on the way. I'd rather them prepare than just wait it out. We don't have unlimited PTO on our hands!


 
They are exploring private contracts in various counties. A much more frugal use of funds than the state using my tax dollars to buy millions of dollars of equipment that will never be used, or rarely be used.


----------



## LibertyLady

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are exploring private contracts in various counties. A much more frugal use of funds than the state using my tax dollars to buy millions of dollars of equipment that will never be used, or rarely be used.



Yes! That makes a lot of sense since the snow is SO hit and miss county by county and some counties have a much bigger industry to keep running. That's a great option!


----------



## Nate23

Throwing some severe weather in the Tampa area...


----------



## ryano

deermeat270 said:


> I think our chances at snow will be out to the 4th or 5th, but the latest models have even minimized that.





thats what I want to hear!


----------



## grewupstockcar

Nate23 said:


> Throwing some severe weather in the Tampa area...



Wow that's some storm.


----------



## Resica

Nicodemus said:


> Dadgum, you`re too far up there in yankee country for us to come bail you outa trouble.



But not too far to visit. The cabin is 175 miles to the northwest. Come visit Nic. We have Elk and Fishers and Ravens!!


----------



## Resica

DDD said:


> Very little if any snow out of this... even tonight.
> 
> This thing is northbound without a doubt.  Resica is going to get frog hammered.What a complete disappointment.  These ULL's are tricky.
> 
> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.



I sure hope so DDD. They are calling for 8-12 now, not enough for me.


----------



## Nicodemus

Resica said:


> But not to far to visit. The cabin is 175 miles to the northwest. Come visit Nic. We have Elk and Fishers and Ravens!!



I`d love to take you up on that! My thoughts on elk are well known, and a fisher fur would look good hangin` up in my tipi.


----------



## pbradley

Nicodemus said:


> I`d love to take you up on that! My thoughts on elk are well known, and a fisher fur would look good hangin` up in my tipi.



I can drop you off in about 10 days, on my way up to Massachusetts.


----------



## Resica

Nicodemus said:


> I`d love to take you up on that! My thoughts on elk are well known, and a fisher fur would look good hangin` up in my tipi.



They just shot a state record Elk this year.That Elk scored  399 6/8 gross and 387 7/8 net if you count, I don't.  I think this was the first year they could trap Fisher's too.


----------



## Nicodemus

pbradley said:


> I can drop you off in about 10 days, on my way up to Massachusetts.




Who are you? Do I know you??? 




Resica said:


> They just shot a state record Elk this year.That Elk scored  399 6/8 gross and 387 7/8 net if you count, I don't.  I think this was the first year they could trap Fisher's too.




I`d settle for a raghorn or a cow.  I really want me a fisher!


----------



## LibertyLady

Nicodemus said:


> Who are you? Do I know you???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I`d settle for a raghorn or a cow.  I really want me a fisher!


----------



## pbradley

Nicodemus said:


> Who are you? Do I know you???




Check the avatar; recognize me now?


----------



## Nicodemus

pbradley said:


> Check the avatar; recognize me now?





Well now, Brother Bradley! As always, give my regards to Miss Angelina...


----------



## Resica

Nicodemus said:


> Who are you? Do I know you???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I`d settle for a raghorn or a cow.  I really want me a fisher!



I hear the fishers are friendly. I've seen pics from the past few years where they weren't legal to  trap and got caught in traps, and they lay over on their back and behave. Go figure. Pretty animals anyway.


----------



## Nicodemus

Resica said:


> I hear the fishers are friendly. I've seen pics from the past few years where they weren't legal to  trap and got caught in traps, and they lay over on their back and behave. Go figure. Pretty animals anyway.





From their looks, I figured they would be meaner`n a turpentined wildcat. They have an exceptional fur.


----------



## Resica

Nicodemus said:


> From their looks, I figured they would be meaner`n a turpentined wildcat. They have an exceptional fur.



You would think they would be mean, but apparently for the most part they aren't, at least in Pennsylvania. They are big Porcupine eaters and native to our state, they were reintroduced in the mid 90's and are doing quite well. I've never seen one.


----------



## LibertyLady

Resica said:


> You would think they would be mean, but apparently for the most part they aren't, at least in Pennsylvania. They are big Porcupine eaters and native to our state, they were reintroduced in the mid 90's and are doing quite well. I've never seen one.



Marty Stouffer has a GREAT segment on one of his shows about a fisher and a porcupine. It was the NEATEST thing to watch! (I bought all his episodes on DVD  )


----------



## Nicodemus

LibertyLady said:


> Marty Stouffer has a GREAT segment on one of his shows about a fisher and a porcupine. It was the NEATEST thing to watch! (I bought all his episodes on DVD  )




How did it tackle the porcupine? Flip it over?


----------



## whitetaco02

Triple D, is extreme North GA gonna get any snow out of this in the early morning hours?

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true


----------



## whitetaco02

Wunderground says a little bit.


----------



## LibertyLady

Nicodemus said:


> How did it tackle the porcupine? Flip it over?



The prickly pig got away.  He kept his quills pointed at him and his other end was protected by a prickle bush and rock if I remember correctly.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Just rain here so far, thankfully, _but_ we're under a winter storm warning for tomorrow-3"-5" expected from the wraparound. Nic, we have a nice herd of elk near me if you're sneaky and can run fast.


----------



## Resica

Nicodemus said:


> How did it tackle the porcupine? Flip it over?



That's what they do Nic. They get at the soft underbelly.


----------



## packrat

*???*



Resica said:


> You would think they would be mean, but apparently for the most part they aren't, at least in Pennsylvania. They are big Porcupine eaters and native to our state, they were reintroduced in the mid 90's and are doing quite well. I've never seen one.



Well then, They gotta be brave.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

GA DAWG said:


> Whats the long range weather look like? Specially the last couple weeks of March. I aint ever turkey hunted in the snow





DouglasB. said:


> Here Here!!!
> 
> I've always dreamed of hunting with snow on the ground. My boss says he's taking me hunting in Wisconsin this year, so we'll see if that actually happens... But man Thunder Chicken huntin' in the snow? I've never even imagined!!!
> 
> If it happens you and I.... going.



I actually got to do it a couple times during my 13 years in NE and it is fun to cut a fresh set of tracks and stalk then set up and call them in.   Have another seat in the truck?


----------



## Wade Chandler

Finally snowing up here in the mountains!  32 degrees with fairly moderate snow.  Ground is wet, so no sticking though.


----------



## contender*

Snowing here, as above, no sticky....


----------



## ryano

snowing in Pickens county. wunderground says its 34 degrees.


----------



## catdieselpower89

Yep snowing good in Jasper. If the ground would only cool off a few degrees!


----------



## contender*

catdieselpower89 said:


> Yep snowing good in Jasper. If the ground would only cool off a few degrees!



Bite your tongue, I don't wanna have to try to get around in a school bus fulla kids and snow on the rds.


----------



## catdieselpower89

contender* said:


> Bite your tongue, I don't wanna have to try to get around in a school bus fulla kids and snow on the rds.



True, and when I was in school they never called it off early enough. So that was always a mess, and I know everyone has missed enough work and school. But it sure is fun to play in.


----------



## Resica

4 or 5 on the ground here already!!


----------



## bigox911

Resica said:


> 4 or 5 on the ground here already!!



Looks like more headed your way as well


----------



## FlyDawg72

hmmm... 33 and partly cloudy in Denver, High expected to be close to 50


----------



## Resica

bigox911 said:


> Looks like more headed your way as well



Pause in the precip. but the forecast is for 8-12.


----------



## bigox911

Resica said:


> Pause in the precip. but the forecast is for 8-12.



So are you to 12 yet


----------



## mewabbithunter

Brite and a warm 72 in Spartinburg SC tonight. Oh wait a minute- thats in my hotel room. Its cold and cloudy outside! LOL


----------



## Resica

bigox911 said:


> So are you to 12 yet



Not yet!! Quit snowing about 11am ,then a light freezing rain until 5, then sleet. Snow started again about 6:15. Thundersnow too!!!!! and lightning. Some 3-5 inch an hour bands not too far away!! It is snowing to beat the band and windy too.!!! Had around 5 this morning and I'm hoping for a foot on top of that!!


----------



## grewupstockcar

Question.  I saw a big crane??? in our backyard by our stream.  Is this a normal place for them.  He was grey but looked just like a crane that you see at the ocean.  Huge wingspan.  We live in Bartow County,  GA


----------



## Resica

How bout a Great Blue Heron? They love streams!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

grewupstockcar said:


> Question. I saw a big crane??? in our backyard by our stream. Is this a normal place for them. He was grey but looked just like a crane that you see at the ocean. Huge wingspan. We live in Bartow County, GA


 


Resica said:


> How bout a Great Blue Heron? They love streams!!


 

Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyup


----------



## slip

grewupstockcar said:


> Question.  I saw a big crane??? in our backyard by our stream.  Is this a normal place for them.  He was grey but looked just like a crane that you see at the ocean.  Huge wingspan.  We live in Bartow County,  GA



yep..

if you spook em they get sassy and yell at cha as they fly off, to.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

slip said:


> yep..
> 
> if you spook em they get sassy and yell at cha as they fly off, to.


 
Modern day teryda,,,,,,,pterydac,,,,,,,,,dinosaur bird.......they even sound like a dinosaur.


----------



## NCHillbilly

But they taste like chicken.


----------



## LibertyLady

grewupstockcar said:


> Question.  I saw a big crane??? in our backyard by our stream.  Is this a normal place for them.  He was grey but looked just like a crane that you see at the ocean.  Huge wingspan.  We live in Bartow County,  GA



Yup, normal.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Wiley as a coyote!Had one clean out my bait tank in the back of my truck, in the dark!I was only gone for 5 minutes!


----------



## Resica

Picked up about 9 inches between 6:15 and 10:15. I think we'll end up with  17 or so for the day. Pretty heavy and wet.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Resica said:


> Picked up about 9 inches between 6:15 and 10:15. I think we'll end up with  17 or so for the day. Pretty heavy and wet.



That outta do it for the year then ,huh?


----------



## Resica

shakey gizzard said:


> That outta do it for the year then ,huh?



Oh no. Supposed to have a little snow Fri. and Sat. too!!


----------



## bigox911

Resica said:


> Picked up about 9 inches between 6:15 and 10:15. I think we'll end up with  17 or so for the day. Pretty heavy and wet.



Pitchers man pitchers


----------



## Greene728

grewupstockcar said:


> Question.  I saw a big crane??? in our backyard by our stream.  Is this a normal place for them.  He was grey but looked just like a crane that you see at the ocean.  Huge wingspan.  We live in Bartow County,  GA



Very common. They love our catfish lake!


----------



## grewupstockcar

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyup



Well, it was dirty grey and not that pretty.  It had a gullet on it.  It was bigger than this bird.  I've just never seen one around here in North Georgia.


----------



## Nicodemus

grewupstockcar said:


> Well, it was dirty grey and not that pretty.  It had a gullet on it.  It was bigger than this bird.  I've just never seen one around here in North Georgia.





Great blues are purty big. This bird you saw didn`t have a red topknot, did it?


----------



## FlyDawg72

bigox911 said:


> Pitchers man pitchers



...YES PLEASE! And mix it up a bit too... left handers, right handers, starters middle relievers...


----------



## grewupstockcar

*Big Blue???*



Nicodemus said:


> Great blues are purty big. This bird you saw didn`t have a red topknot, did it?



Not really sure if it had a red knot.  It was a dirty grey, almost blended into the tree bark.. It could have been a big blue, but I still don't know.  Next time I will grab my cell phone and take a pic.


----------



## todd03blown

Resica said:


> Picked up about 9 inches between 6:15 and 10:15. I think we'll end up with  17 or so for the day. Pretty heavy and wet.



wow good for you!! Enjoy that heavy stuff


----------



## slip

Nicodemus said:


> Great blues are purty big. This bird you saw didn`t have a red topknot, did it?



thinking sandhill?


----------



## Resica

Here's a couple that kinda show the depth.


----------



## jsullivan03




----------



## slip

holy cow


----------



## boneboy96

ahhhhhh....I miss the Poconos!


----------



## Resica

boneboy96 said:


> ahhhhhh....I miss the Poconos!



Me too.


----------



## challer

DDD said:


> Very little if any snow out of this... even tonight.
> 
> This thing is northbound without a doubt.  Resica is going to get frog hammered.
> 
> What a complete disappointment.  These ULL's are tricky.
> 
> Feb 3 - 5?  Wooo Wee... if that holds... what a doozie that will be.  At least according to the 12Z GFS.  Wowzers.



DDD, It has been a couple of days, any thoughts on how Feb 3 - 5 is looking?


----------



## grewupstockcar

slip said:


> thinking sandhill?



Very similar to that one, I just don't remember the red...maybe.


----------



## DEERFU

Resica said:


> Here's a couple that kinda show the depth.



Wow! That would probably shut us down for a couple of weeks if low temps came with it


----------



## nickel back

Resica said:


> Here's a couple that kinda show the depth.



nice pics....



thats what I want in Spaulding county.....


----------



## Resica

nickel back said:


> nice pics....
> 
> 
> 
> thats what I want in Spaulding county.....



Maybe you guys will get it soon. It's happened before, it'll happen again.


----------



## nickel back

Resica said:


> Maybe you guys will get it soon. It's happened before, it'll happen again.



sure would be fun....


----------



## deermeat270

challer said:


> DDD, It has been a couple of days, any thoughts on how Feb 3 - 5 is looking?



Theres nothing for the foreseeable future.  If i was to bet I think we are done for winter weather in GA this yr.


----------



## slip

part of me wants real snow like yall got, Resica, but the other side of me wants spring.


----------



## DEERFU

slip said:


> part of me wants real snow like yall got, Resica, but the other side of me wants spring.



 Yep bring on the Spring! But keep the tornadoes


----------



## Resica

slip said:


> part of me wants real snow like yall got, Resica, but the other side of me wants spring.



Spring(Summer) will be here before you know it, enjoy winter if you can get it, it can be fleeting, although if this keeps up I may be wishing for spring before too long.


----------



## Unicoidawg

deermeat270 said:


> Theres nothing for the foreseeable future.  If i was to bet I think we are done for winter weather in GA this yr.



Some of the biggest snows I have ever seen have came in March...... It ain't over, we'll get another round of some wintery weather or two........


----------



## pbradley

boneboy96 said:


> ahhhhhh....I miss the Poconos!



Dang! When did they get banded?


----------



## 243Savage

Resica said:


> Here's a couple that kinda show the depth.



That's just a little dusting.   

Here's some snow.  There's usually at least 2 feet of packed and groomed snow we're driving on in some areas.


----------



## doenightmare

243Savage said:


> That's just a little dusting.
> 
> Here's some snow.  There's usually at least 2 feet of packed and groomed snow we're driving on in some areas.



Girly man snow.................................


----------



## 243Savage

doenightmare said:


> Girly man snow.................................






They don't close the schools either.    I've seen them do it only once because of a whiteout blizzard where there was zero visibility.


----------



## doenightmare

243Savage said:


> They don't close the schools either.    I've seen them do it only once because of a whiteout blizzard where there was zero visibility.



Maybe we got more sense down here??


----------



## Resica

243Savage said:


> That's just a little dusting.
> 
> Here's some snow.  There's usually at least 2 feet of packed and groomed snow we're driving on in some areas.


Nice!!  What is the annual snowfall average out there?


----------



## 243Savage

Resica said:


> Nice!!  What is the annual snowfall average out there?




It varies around the park, I've seen stats that say somewhere between 150-400 inches depending on altitude.


In other words.... too much.


----------



## Nate23

243Savage said:


> That's just a little dusting.
> 
> Here's some snow.  There's usually at least 2 feet of packed and groomed snow we're driving on in some areas.



Tease...need more pictures.


----------



## Resica

243Savage said:


> It varies around the park, I've seen stats that say somewhere between 150-400 inches depending on altitude.
> 
> 
> In other words.... too much.



150 would be alright, 400 is a little too much.


----------



## DDD

Ya'll have withdrawls?


----------



## BBQBOSS

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



Is it.....really....you???  Hey man, you got a good weather map i can look at???  This methadone aint doing it for me!


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



DUUUUUUUUDE...! ...Killin' me Smalls!


----------



## marknga

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



man this 60 degrees and sunshine will take a Winter Weather Thread to the pits in a hurry.


----------



## Resica

Snowing here again!!


----------



## challer

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



Seriously, my wife wants to take my phone away from me.  I am constantly looking for updates.  Cold turkey hurts!


----------



## grewupstockcar

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



Yes, ok, yes....I'm addicted...


----------



## DEERFU

ddd said:


> ya'll have withdrawls?



yep!     make something up if ya have to


----------



## Tag-a-long

Three days of mid to upper 60s and sunshine, and on the weekend to boot? That's MY kinda forecast!


----------



## grewupstockcar

We had a train wreck in our backyard on the other side of our stream. (some of you probably saw it on the news November 2010) Yes 17 carloads of corn in our neighborhood. CSX vacuumed up almost, almost all of it and left a mess.  Well the problem is the corn is now fermenting, it stinks, and birds are everywhere.  We ran over a rat in our driveway and our neighbor did too.  I'm starting to worry about the snakes now as it starts to warm up.  I'm a girl who loves to fish, but hates, hates snakes.  Any words of wisdom.  I'm praying for more snow, just so the snakes stay in the ground.


----------



## nickel back

challer said:


> DDD, It has been a couple of days, any thoughts on how Feb 3 - 5 is looking?



rain.....lots of rain


----------



## deermeat270

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.....Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....Hes about to say something.


----------



## Resica

grewupstockcar said:


> We had a train wreck in our backyard on the other side of our stream. (some of you probably saw it on the news November 2010) Yes 17 carloads of corn in our neighborhood. CSX vacuumed up almost, almost all of it and left a mess.  Well the problem is the corn is now fermenting, it stinks, and birds are everywhere.  We ran over a rat in our driveway and our neighbor did too.  I'm starting to worry about the snakes now as it starts to warm up.  I'm a girl who loves to fish, but hates, hates snakes.  Any words of wisdom.  I'm praying for more snow, just so the snakes stay in the ground.



Learn to love snakes?


----------



## grewupstockcar

Resica said:


> Learn to love snakes?



sorry no.)


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



Yes!!!
But if it isn"t going to snow, then I'll take this beautiful weather!!!! Going squirrel hunting today, then Rabbit hunting tommorow!!!


----------



## rospaw

DDD said:


> Ya'll have withdrawls?



DDD......He's like a Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ----Edited to Remove Profanity ---- in the wind!!!!   backwards "TRAF"

 on another note... what movie is that line from??


----------



## ryork

An excerpt from the B'ham NWS office below.  Is this the next possible winter weather threat?  Forecast lows in the low-mid 20's Thurs night.




HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD ON THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT WILL INCLUDE A 20
POP WITH RAIN WORDING...ALBEIT A VERY COLD RAIN. SOME CLEARING BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

ryork said:


> An excerpt from the B'ham NWS office below. Is this the next possible winter weather threat? Forecast lows in the low-mid 20's Thurs night.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE
> SOUTHEAST COAST AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
> CONUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
> AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
> IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
> STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
> DUE TO MODEL SPREAD ON THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT WILL INCLUDE A 20
> POP WITH RAIN WORDING...*ALBEIT A VERY COLD RAIN. SOME CLEARING BY*
> SATURDAY MORNING WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


 
This, and nothing more. Keep watching though, my bets are on late February, around the 23rd or so..


----------



## Greene728

Im bout ready for the severe weather thread myself. This beautiful day today has me fired up for spring time. Foowey on this snow and cold!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> Im bout ready for the severe weather thread myself. This beautiful day today has me fired up for spring time. Foowey on this snow and cold!


 
Patience Grasshopper, patience. If the Arctic Oscillation proves true then we'll get another good cold one around the 23rd. (already seeing the pattern changing off the pacific coast around the 13th) and then we'll be in the thick of some heavy duty boomers around the 1st or 2nd week of April..


----------



## Fro1911nut

Long term /wednesday through sunday/...

Extended begins with the front pushing through the state...and
strong gradient winds in place behind it. Surface front elongates
across the east coast under southwest flow aloft...while a
secondary upper low begins to cut off over the desert southwest...
But remains phased with the larger system in canada. As this low
rotates slowly northeast (ecmwf is slightly faster)...another slug
of gulf moisture pushes up into the southeast. Ecmwf has moisture
further north...and there is some question as to how cold
temperatures will be aloft. Rain may mix with or change briefly to
snow overnight thursday and friday nights...have included the mix
in the grids but too much uncertainty with thicknesses to go much
beyond that. Ecmwf speeds the weakening low northeast and off the
new england coast while the gfs hangs it back into the mid-
atlantic states on sunday...so uncertainty is high through the
weekend. Will continue going forecast of no pops for the time
being over the weekend...but obviously this could change at any
time.


----------



## Greene728

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Patience Grasshopper, patience. If the Arctic Oscillation proves true then we'll get another good cold one around the 23rd. (already seeing the pattern changing off the pacific coast around the 13th) and then we'll be in the thick of some heavy duty boomers around the 1st or 2nd week of April..


----------



## Fro1911nut

From are friends in Bham 

THE LAST SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY THAT
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BE A LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM AND WILL SPIN UP
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THE PREFERRED TRACK FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS THE SAME. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE FROM THE MID WEEK ARCTIC HIGH THEN PARTS OF THE REGION COULD
BE IN FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT OF SOME SIGNIFICANCE. AS IT STANDS
NOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...I WONDER IF THE
MODELS ARE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXTREME SNOW PACK THAT IS SURE TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ITS
POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS
AT THIS POINT.


----------



## Buck111

I'd really like to see more snow..... next winter.
I'm ready for spring.


----------



## Fro1911nut

Just cause I love chasing weather  out of Dallas, TX



... Wintry week ahead for North Texas...

An Arctic cold front will move into North Texas Monday evening...
and sweep through all of North Texas by mid-morning Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall throughout the day Tuesday... with afternoon
readings dropping into the teens in areas northwest of Fort Worth.
All of North Texas is expected to be below freezing by Tuesday
evening. The northwestern half of North Texas may remain below
freezing until Friday.

Freezing rain and sleet will impact much of North Texas on
Tuesday. The activity may transition to snow late in the morning
north of I-20. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect generally along
and northwest of a line from Breckenridge... to Mineral Wells... to
Gainesville... where accumulations of sleet may exceed 1/2 inch.
Additional ice and snow accumulation may occur just southeast of
the watch area and winter weather advisories will be issued
tomorrow for more of the area.

Gusty north winds will combine with the frigid temperatures to
produce wind chills in the single digits and teens Tuesday and
Wednesday. Wind chills may fall below zero Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across the northwestern half of North Texas.

Snow flurries will be possible on Wednesday... with a chance of
more significant snowfall on Friday.

During extended outbreaks of cold weather... it is always advisable
to be proactive and protect exposed pipes with insulating
material... and to leave a water faucet slowly dripping overnight.
Outdoor pets should be provided appropriate shelter... and
residents are encouraged to dress in layers to avoid the impacts
of cold temperatures and wind chills. Anytime temperatures are
expected to fall below freezing... turn off automatic sprinklers.
Sprinkler systems running in sub-freezing temperatures can create
hazardous driving conditions.


Looks like Winter is going to slam the middle half of the country


----------



## Fro1911nut

How would you like to know this was coming! Wife just talked to her Grandparents in W Missouri...going to be a mess out that way. Bad ice/snow storm followed by bad cold and wind chills in the -10s!

FXUS63 KSGF 302343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL U.S. INCLUDING THE MISSOURI OZARKS
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH THE WARMER AIR...HOWEVER MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE REGION UNTIL
IT INCREASES MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ONLY
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BITE TRICKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS JUST OFF TO THE NORTH PUSHING SOUTH...AND A WARMER
AIRMASS IS TO THE SOUTH PUSHING NORTH. AS THESE TWO AIR MASSES
BATTLE IT OUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO DROP TO
CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR TONIGHT THEN LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. SO...WILL REALLY HAVE
TO WATCH WHERE THE FREEZING LINE SETTLES TOMORROW AS SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FIRST ROUND...HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SLICK SPOTS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW PUSHED ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS LATE MONDAY...THEN
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...STRONG LIFT WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS
THIS SYSTEM PULLS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP COMING IN A TAD FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS DEPICT...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT
BE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET
AND OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL RAPIDLY
WITH THE INITIAL WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TURNING OVER
TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF A ANDERSON TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH OF THIS LINE IS MORE IN QUESTION AS
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL
BE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WARMER TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS LINGER LONGER
ACROSS THESE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO LIKELY SETUP NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. SO...ITS
POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
LONGER WITH MOSTLY ALL RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. HOWEVER...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHIFTS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THE ALL RAIN AREA
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A OF A CASSVILLE TO A
SALEM MISSOURI LINE WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF INCH
ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE. THESE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS SNOW...WHERE UP TO TWO TO
THREE INCHES MAYBE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY STRONG LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND VERY STRONG LIFT MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO
INCHES. THE INITIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE FAIRLY WET. AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SNOW SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DRIER. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM....WITH GUST OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH THE SNOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WHICH COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.


THE SNOW AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS SPREADING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WIND CHILLS NEAR TEN BELOW ZERO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TEENS TO THE LOW 20S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOWS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH VALUES BELOW NEGATIVE 5 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

WISE

&&


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Really dude!!! cold rain at best for us. Remember that dry slot on the last storm? It's gonna be worse for this one, and even warmer here.


----------



## Fro1911nut

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Really dude!!! cold rain at best for us. Remember that dry slot on the last storm? It's gonna be worse for this one, and even warmer here.




 What else do we have to talk about


----------



## DDD

Current weather situation is a litte interesting to me in the over all picture.

Major snow producer from St. Louis to Chicago.  20"+.  While here in SE weak CAD set ups with moisture hanging around.

Friday - Sunday is an interesting weather set up and bears watching, but the biggest thing missing from the puzzle is the blocking needed up in Canada.  If we had that to supply us with cold air we would be in business for a snow storm, but instead there is nothing to hold the cold air in place and with the warm air advection from the Gulf it just warms up and rains.

I beginning to wonder if winter weather is over for the SE.

I could see us getting one of those strong Upper Level Lows on the back end of February, and I almost like that chance because those things can make for some serious snows if it hits just right.

Miguel may get more twisting action early on this year than some think.  This weather year has lots of suprises in store.  Would not suprise me if we had a REALLY HOT summer.


----------



## Resica

Fro1911nut said:


> How would you like to know this was coming! Wife just talked to her Grandparents in W Missouri...going to be a mess out that way. Bad ice/snow storm followed by bad cold and wind chills in the -10s!



It is coming !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Fro1911nut said:


> What else do we have to talk about


 
Talking about it is one thing. Copy and pasting every weather bulletin from here to Missouri and points westward..

Talk, dude., talk..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Current weather situation is a litte interesting to me in the over all picture.
> 
> Major snow producer from St. Louis to Chicago. 20"+. While here in SE weak CAD set ups with moisture hanging around.
> 
> Friday - Sunday is an interesting weather set up and bears watching, but the biggest thing missing from the puzzle is the blocking needed up in Canada. If we had that to supply us with cold air we would be in business for a snow storm, but instead there is nothing to hold the cold air in place and with the warm air advection from the Gulf it just warms up and rains.
> 
> I beginning to wonder if winter weather is over for the SE.
> 
> I could see us getting one of those strong Upper Level Lows on the back end of February, and I almost like that chance because those things can make for some serious snows if it hits just right.
> 
> Miguel may get more twisting action early on this year than some think. This weather year has lots of suprises in store. Would not suprise me if we had a REALLY HOT summer.


 
Now you're startin to see it my way..
However, I think those birds migrating north last week may know something we don't..


----------



## Jeff Raines

DDD said:


> I beginning to wonder if winter weather is over for the SE.



and that is just fine with me


----------



## crackerdave

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Now you're startin to see it my way..
> However, I think those birds migrating north last week may know something we don't..



So.....with all yalls compooters and models an' such-like.......you're _bird-watchin'??????_ Warms th' cockles of my heart!


----------



## DDD

crackerdave said:


> So.....with all yalls compooters and models an' such-like.......you're _bird-watchin'??????_ Warms th' cockles of my heart!



No, let's be clear, Miguel is bird watching and forecasting wooly worms and such...


----------



## Tag-a-long

DDD said:


> I beginning to wonder if winter weather is over for the SE.
> 
> Miguel may get more twisting action early on this year than some think.  This weather year has lots of suprises in store.  Would not suprise me if we had a REALLY HOT summer.



I could do without much more in the way of winter ... from the looks of the forecast temps over the next few days and the buds on my apple tree, it is gonna be in full bloom in about a week to 10 days!  

The really hot summer I can do without.  I can cut firewood to help offset heating costs.  The only thing I can do to help with cooling costs is SWEAT and that ain't fixin' to happen!


----------



## bigox911

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Now you're startin to see it my way..
> However, I think those birds migrating north last week may know something we don't..



Don't know a time this winter I saw the 850 0c line stay north of us for so much of the gfs.  Looks like some interesting weather around the middle of the month for sure.  PNA is dropping and NAO is doing who knows what.  I wouldn't mind about a weeks worth of this pasts weekends weather though


----------



## Greene728

The really hot summer I can do without. I can cut firewood to help offset heating costs. The only thing I can do to help with cooling costs is SWEAT and that ain't fixin' to happen!  



Got that right!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

bigox911 said:


> Don't know a time this winter I saw the 850 0c line stay north of us for so much of the gfs. Looks like some interesting weather around the middle of the month for sure. PNA is dropping and NAO is doing who knows what. I wouldn't mind about a weeks worth of this pasts weekends weather though


 
NAO is holding tight, keeping things bottled up. The AO is trying to push a cycle down, which is what the PNA is showing, but I think were about 3 or so weeks away from it changing good enough to effect us. By then things will be blooming, which is right on time..


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> No, let's be clear, Miguel is bird watching and forecasting wooly worms and such...



Hey I resemble that remark!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Hey I resemble that remark!


 
I consider nature to be much much smarter than man. One only has to observe. (and I'm not talking about BigFoot fanatics either)

Remember in early bow season when everyone was commenting on how much fat the deer had on them? Nature knew, contrary to the weather experts on TV that promised us we would have a mild warm winter.

My bet is on the birds..


----------



## pbradley

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I consider nature to be much much smarter than man. One only has to observe. (and I'm not talking about BigFoot fanatics either)
> 
> Remember in early bow season when everyone was commenting on how much fat the deer had on them? Nature knew, contrary to the weather experts on TV that promised us we would have a mild warm winter.
> 
> My bet is on the birds..





http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=5585676&postcount=1


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

pbradley said:


> http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=5585676&postcount=1


 
You sir, are a true sage among the plethera of over-educated neanderthals that inhabit our globe..


----------



## Bitteroot

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I consider nature to be much much smarter than man. One only has to observe. (and I'm not talking about BigFoot fanatics either)
> 
> Remember in early bow season when everyone was commenting on how much fat the deer had on them? Nature knew, contrary to the weather experts on TV that promised us we would have a mild warm winter.
> 
> My bet is on the birds..



yea but ask keebs if she knows why one side of the V formation is longer than the other...


----------



## Fro1911nut

Talked with some friends in Missouri today and the mets out there are calling for a end of days ice/snow storm. Some places already under a blizzard warning and it hasn't really done anything yet. Its 42 in Springfield now, and low tomorrow night there is supposed to be around 8!


----------



## DDD

Ok, so its time to start paying attention to February 5-6.

I will be honest, the 18Z runs of the GFS and NAM are pretty interesting to say the least. I have not really been paying attention because it did not look very impressive, but now I am tuning in.  The GFS and NAM are both onto a winter event here.

Still 5 days out.  North of I-20 and the upsate of SC are all in the game and NE GA would be on tap for a major snow event.

I will take a longer look at it in the morning, I am just not in the mood to chase weather stuff tonight.

I will post up in the morning.


----------



## Fro1911nut

DDD said:


> Ok, so its time to start paying attention to February 5-6.
> 
> I will be honest, the 18Z runs of the GFS and NAM are pretty interesting to say the least. I have not really been paying attention because it did not look very impressive, but now I am tuning in.  The GFS and NAM are both onto a winter event here.
> 
> Still 5 days out.  North of I-20 and the upsate of SC are all in the game and NE GA would be on tap for a major snow event.
> 
> I will take a longer look at it in the morning, I am just not in the mood to chase weather stuff tonight.
> 
> I will post up in the morning.




Could this be along the lines of what the met out of Bham office was thinking? That the models might not be able to handle the cold due to the snowpack over the midwest? 
Kurt mentioned in his blog yesterday about how the models were all crazy with the end of the week.


----------



## DDD

Fro1911nut said:


> Could this be along the lines of what the met out of Bham office was thinking? That the models might not be able to handle the cold due to the snowpack over the midwest?
> Kurt mentioned in his blog yesterday about how the models were all crazy with the end of the week.



Yep it's screwy in the way it doesn't make a lot of sense why the cold stays in place and does not retreat north.

Would not surprise me for it to retreat north the closer we get to it.  What is weird is soundings have surface temps right at freezing, mid levels below freezing and then warm air from the gulf above that.  It's a little odd.  Not sure what to make of it.


----------



## FlyDawg72

DDD said:


> I will take a longer look at it in the morning, I am just not in the mood to chase weather stuff tonight.
> 
> I will post up in the morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

The cold air wedge (Tommy's wedgie) will be our friend today. Unless it breaks down, which isn't forseeable, it will keep the twisty spinny things at bay. However, if I were one of you folks that lived in the southwest region of georgia (albany to valdosta northward to a parallel even with Columbus or a little north) I would keep my ears on the weather radio tonight into early morning. I don't believe it will be widespread meyham, but this time of year changing patterns in the weather can make conditions right for microburst and mesoscale weather in isolated areas where heat islands exist and clash with the approaching front causing rapid lift and collapse of the cells.

Don't say you weren't warned.


----------



## challer

DDD said:


> Ok, so its time to start paying attention to February 5-6.
> 
> I will be honest, the 18Z runs of the GFS and NAM are pretty interesting to say the least. I have not really been paying attention because it did not look very impressive, but now I am tuning in.  The GFS and NAM are both onto a winter event here.
> 
> Still 5 days out.  North of I-20 and the upsate of SC are all in the game and NE GA would be on tap for a major snow event.
> 
> I will take a longer look at it in the morning, I am just not in the mood to chase weather stuff tonight.
> 
> I will post up in the morning.



That's what I am talking about!!  Bring it on!


----------



## Jranger

Facebook friend of mine is snowed/iced in in Frisco, Texas. Didn't know we had anything coming in but rain.


----------



## bigox911

Man this storm is intense...Out of Enid, OK

6 degrees with sustained winds of 19 mph gusts of 40+


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The cold air wedge (Tommy's wedgie) will be our friend today. Unless it breaks down, which isn't forseeable, it will keep the twisty spinny things at bay. However, if I were one of you folks that lived in the southwest region of georgia (albany to valdosta northward to a parallel even with Columbus or a little north) I would keep my ears on the weather radio tonight into early morning. I don't believe it will be widespread meyham, but this time of year changing patterns in the weather can make conditions right for microburst and mesoscale weather in isolated areas where heat islands exist and clash with the approaching front causing rapid lift and collapse of the cells.
> 
> Don't say you weren't warned.


Soooo glad I went ahead & mixed horse feed last night!  I'm watching that red line ease this way & thinking......... geeezzlouise!


----------



## Keebs

bigox911 said:


> Man this storm is intense...Out of Enid, OK
> 
> 6 degrees with sustained winds of 19 mph gusts of 40+



Hey BigOx, step into the driveler, I have a question for ya & don't wanna derail this thread, K? thanks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> Soooo glad I went ahead & mixed horse feed last night! I'm watching that red line ease this way & thinking......... geeezzlouise!


 
Me too. The good thing is, the closer to the coast you are the lower the tops. By the time it reaches Ga, it will either be robbed of the good energy it needs to cause any major trouble, or if the wedge is still in place, you'll have thunder down south, but as the storms approach the central part of the state, height of the cloud tops and stacking up against the cold wedge should cause more issues up north of you guys. If we get 20,000 ft tops or better with 15kgm or better vil when these babies slam into the wedge it could get interesting down south of I-20.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Me too. The good thing is, the closer to the coast you are the lower the tops. By the time it reaches Ga, it will either be robbed of the good energy it needs to cause any major trouble, or if the wedge is still in place, you'll have thunder down south, but as the storms approach the central part of the state, height of the cloud tops and stacking up against the cold wedge should cause more issues up north of you guys. If we get 20,000 ft tops or better with 15kgm or better vil when these babies slam into the wedge it could get interesting down south of I-20.



The temps won't drop until AFTER it moves through, though, right?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> The temps won't drop until AFTER it moves through, though, right?


 
Right.


----------



## FlyDawg72

Always amazed at how conservative the TV/Radio guys are compared to the interpretation from those on the Forum.

As I was getting ready for work this morning and saw the map of the US with the green, pink, and white mosaic that stretched from West Texas to Maine, I thought it may be a good idea to check back in with this thread and get some more perspective on what may lie ahead.

It's been quiet in here for the last several days, so I fell into a weather lull. I bet we'll be on to WWT VI in just a few hours... the "Lurker List" is beginning to grow.


----------



## DDD

No dice in my opinion for Friday - Saturday.  It's going to be too warm.

The cold shot comes Tuesday - Wednesday of next week and it's a doozy if it holds.  Also has some moisture hanging around, but its a week away.


----------



## Nitram4891

So where is the severe wheather thread?  Looks like hail is pounding southern MS right now.


----------



## FlyDawg72

Nitram4891 said:


> So where is the severe wheather thread?  Looks like hail is pounding southern MS right now.



...severe thunder and rain thread...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> So where is the severe wheather thread? Looks like hail is pounding southern MS right now.


 
We don't live in southern MS.... When I see conclusive evidence that we will have severe weather then there MIGHT be a SW thread. A thunderstorm does not constitute severe weather..


----------



## georgia357

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A thunderstorm does not constitute severe weather..



It does for me.    When it starts booming I start hiding.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

georgia357 said:


> It does for me.  When it starts booming I start hiding.


 
Cheeekeeen. Nothing like standing under a high voltage transmission line in a good thunderstorm and holding up a 4ft. flourescent tube and watching it light up.


----------



## bigox911

Got whiteout??   Out of Chicago


----------



## todd03blown

the rush hour in chi-town is going to be a DISASTER!! I can see it taking people 4-5hrs to get home or even worse!


----------



## Fro1911nut

I70 from St Louis w to Columbia has been shut down. My wife talked to some of her friends in Springfield and they have over a foot of snow on the ground.


----------



## DEERFU

Fro1911nut said:


> I70 from St Louis w to Columbia has been shut down. My wife talked to some of her friends in Springfield and they have over a foot of snow on the ground.



Glad it aint us!


----------



## Fro1911nut

I know everybody is in withdraw, but I came across this from the guy in Bham...maybe we get lucky next week?!?!

BUT NO...THAT/S NOT ALL...IF YOU HAVEN/T HAD ENOUGH...YET A 3RD
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT MONDAY IN OUR FAR EXTENDED AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH YET ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTERY MIX FOR ALABAMA. HOWEVER...EXTENDED
MODELS LOVE TO DANGLE THIS WINTER CARROT IN FRONT OF US...WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. HOWEVER...ALWAYS ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR INTEREST.


----------



## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We don't live in southern MS.... When I see conclusive evidence that we will have severe weather then there MIGHT be a SW thread. A thunderstorm does not constitute severe weather..



Whatever Spaniard.  You are about as useful as FFC right now...


----------



## Priest

Uhmm... from what I am seeing on the 0z GFS.... it is saying a few of us are supposed to get freezing rain and maybe a little bit of snow on Wed the 2nd in the late morning.  It is showing some really early in the morning on Sat the 5th.  It is showing us getting a small corner of the monster on the 8th.... and it is showing us getting plowed on the 12th by something that is supposed to carry freezing rain down half of Florida.  

the 6z is showing us getting a hit on the 8th through the 9th and it is showing the same kind of thing building on the 12th, but my screen is going blank after the 300 hour mark... so I dunno.

What are you guys seeing?  I'm just learning and you guys have the experience.... I'm just reading off what the thing showed.


----------



## whitetaco02

MC, this does not look good!


----------



## whitetaco02

Is it getting better organized?

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

whitetaco02 said:


> MC, this does not look good!


 
Just because you see a bunch of yellow on a radar??? 

Psssssssssssst!!!

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=601282


----------



## Paymaster

Startin to get ruff here! Lots of lightnin!


----------



## biggtruxx

Raining good here in Monroe! Ought to sleep good tonite


----------



## Fro1911nut

DDD What are you thinking for next couple days? KM was saying this AM we are walking on a razor edge between wet and ice...and read this out of Bham a little while ago...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VITAL TONIGHT AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 85 AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR FREEZING...AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS SO STAY TUNED TO
LATER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR WINTRY MIX WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW...IT IS STARTING TO INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$


----------



## DDD

Fro1911,

I think this event tomorrow and Friday is going to start out as some type of mix and then transition to rain.  I dont think there will be very much accumulation if any and the models seem to keep the moisture south of I-20 where it would most likely be mostly rain.

What I am VERY interested in is the EURO and GFS both showing a major winter weather event in here a week from today and tomorrow.

Very, Very cold deep air, with freezing temps south of Orlando 

A LPS will move out of the Gulf and spread snow from TX to NC.  As it is modeled right now all of South GA would be in play as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.

7-8 days away, so its hard to put much stock in it, but I will also point out the NAO goes negative on Feb. 10 and that my friends is the sign we need to enter some more snow to the SE.

Stay tuned.


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> As it is modeled right now _*all of South GA would be in play*_ as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.
> 
> 
> Stay tuned.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Fro1911,
> 
> I think this event tomorrow and Friday is going to start out as some type of mix and then transition to rain.  I dont think there will be very much accumulation if any and the models seem to keep the moisture south of I-20 where it would most likely be mostly rain.
> 
> What I am VERY interested in is the EURO and GFS both showing a major winter weather event in here a week from today and tomorrow.
> 
> Very, Very cold deep air, with freezing temps south of Orlando
> 
> A LPS will move out of the Gulf and spread snow from TX to NC.  As it is modeled right now all of South GA would be in play as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.
> 
> 7-8 days away, so its hard to put much stock in it, but I will also point out the NAO goes negative on Feb. 10 and that my friends is the sign we need to enter some more snow to the SE.
> 
> Stay tuned.



TWC was also showing their temp graphs for late next week and the cold is going to be good! Low teens with possible single digits without windchill of course. They are also showing a 40% chance of snow on Feb 10.

Would be nice to get another snow event


----------



## higgy




----------



## Fro1911nut

DDD said:


> Fro1911,
> 
> I think this event tomorrow and Friday is going to start out as some type of mix and then transition to rain.  I dont think there will be very much accumulation if any and the models seem to keep the moisture south of I-20 where it would most likely be mostly rain.
> 
> What I am VERY interested in is the EURO and GFS both showing a major winter weather event in here a week from today and tomorrow.
> 
> Very, Very cold deep air, with freezing temps south of Orlando
> 
> A LPS will move out of the Gulf and spread snow from TX to NC.  As it is modeled right now all of South GA would be in play as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.
> 
> 7-8 days away, so its hard to put much stock in it, but I will also point out the NAO goes negative on Feb. 10 and that my friends is the sign we need to enter some more snow to the SE.
> 
> Stay tuned.



Gotcha. I figured it would not amount to much, but I guess the mets have gotten the idea to at least mention it just in case it would happen. 
I have also been hearing them harp about one short wave after another coming threw with multiple lows coming out of the gulf. What E Texas and Southern Miss get over next couple days could be a preview to what hits us. One thing for sure this has been the worse winter I can ever remember seeing.


----------



## adavis

*Do tell and show!*



DDD said:


> Fro1911,
> 
> I think this event tomorrow and Friday is going to start out as some type of mix and then transition to rain.  I dont think there will be very much accumulation if any and the models seem to keep the moisture south of I-20 where it would most likely be mostly rain.
> 
> What I am VERY interested in is the EURO and GFS both showing a major winter weather event in here a week from today and tomorrow.
> 
> Very, Very cold deep air, with freezing temps south of Orlando
> 
> A LPS will move out of the Gulf and spread snow from TX to NC.  As it is modeled right now all of South GA would be in play as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.
> 
> 7-8 days away, so its hard to put much stock in it, but I will also point out the NAO goes negative on Feb. 10 and that my friends is the sign we need to enter some more snow to the SE.
> 
> Stay tuned.



Do tell and show some maps! Enjoy this thread! Thanks for taking the time to post info! Is it time to start WWT VI?


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> Fro1911,
> 
> I think this event tomorrow and Friday is going to start out as some type of mix and then transition to rain.  I dont think there will be very much accumulation if any and the models seem to keep the moisture south of I-20 where it would most likely be mostly rain.
> 
> What I am VERY interested in is the EURO and GFS both showing a major winter weather event in here a week from today and tomorrow.
> 
> Very, Very cold deep air, with freezing temps south of Orlando
> 
> A LPS will move out of the Gulf and spread snow from TX to NC.  As it is modeled right now all of South GA would be in play as their temps are showing 4-6° below freezing for most of the event.  Will this verify?  I doubt it, but the interesting part is the EURO and both GFS are preaching it.
> 
> 7-8 days away, so its hard to put much stock in it, but I will also point out the NAO goes negative on Feb. 10 and that my friends is the sign we need to enter some more snow to the SE.
> 
> Stay tuned.


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## huntinglady74

SPRING PLEASE


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## Resica

huntinglady74 said:


> SPRING PLEASE



Your gonna be in the 40's and 50's into next week, sounds like spring to me.


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## huntinglady74

Resica said:


> Your gonna be in the 40's and 50's into next week, sounds like spring to me.



no i want 60's and 70's...hehehehehehehe


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## Resica

huntinglady74 said:


> no i want 60's and 70's...hehehehehehehe



Careful what you wish for. It'll skip right by the 60's and 70's and head straight for the 90's and 100's.


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## WoodsmanEd

I will take one more round to go out and play in the woods with. All it will take is the first flakes to start and I am  Attention ....Attention ...Calling The Winter Guru...AKA.....(DDD).  May we please have just one more decent winter strom to track and have it materialize please sir.   I promise you can count on him to be keeping us abreast the next few days while awaiting this system with baited breath.


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## WoodsmanEd

Resica said:


> Careful what you wish for. It'll skip right by the 60's and 70's and head straight for the 90's and 100's.



Love my wife, but sometimes she just can not help it


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## ditchdoc24

Here's to WWT VI!!!!


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## Resica

WoodsmanEd said:


> Love my wife, but sometimes she just can not help it



Please help her!!


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## whitetaco02

WWT VI Here we come!!!!!!!


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## WoodsmanEd

Slide it on in here and lets make it a good one this time God willing!!


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## Unicoidawg

On to the next one boys......

WW V offically closed


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