# Hurricane/Tides



## Cumberlandjg (Sep 10, 2018)

Anyone got an idea on how the hurricane might effect the tides on our coast if it makes a direct landfall in the Carolinas? Currently forecast for St Marys/Brunswick is calling for a nice weekend, think that is going to hold up?


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## perryrip (Sep 10, 2018)

Tides are high 8s and low 9s through the 15 of Sept. Add this storm surge and it will be mud soup.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2018)

There will be significant influence to the onshore wave height as Florence approaches late Wednesday through most of Thursday. As it gets closer to the NC shoreline the winds will shift from land to offshore along the Ga coast and diminish as it continues to landfall.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2018)




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## Mayberry (Sep 10, 2018)

I have an inshore trip planned around Shellman's Bluff next weekend (9/21).  How will this storm affect the fishing a week after the storm?  Much better, or will it ruin fishing for a few weeks?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2018)

Mayberry said:


> I have an inshore trip planned around Shellman's Bluff next weekend (9/21).  How will this storm affect the fishing a week after the storm?  Much better, or will it ruin fishing for a few weeks?


Two ways to look at that. New moon equals high tides and storm surge will mimic a ton of rain on a spring tide that washes a lot of bait out of the marsh, however those onshore winds may keep everything pushed inshore.  On the flip side, a strong flow to the SE will blow the water out of the creeks keeping a lot of bait inshore. I wouldn't want to be the one to make the call on that one.


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## lagrangedave (Sep 10, 2018)

Probably too much fresh water for good inshore fishing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 10, 2018)

The 11 pm graphic just came out and the projected landfall has taken a shift to the north. If it keeps this trend up perhaps the Ga Coast can escape relatively unscathed outside of an initial surge. Wednesday will be a much more informative day.


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## Cumberlandjg (Sep 11, 2018)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The 11 pm graphic just came out and the projected landfall has taken a shift to the north. If it keeps this trend up perhaps the Ga Coast can escape relatively unscathed outside of an initial surge. Wednesday will be a much more informative day.




Those graphics are showing significant wave heights around 2 ft around St Marys area so fishing intercoastal and the creeks should be good as long as wind isnt too bad.

All the forecasts I see call for 5-10 mph W winds but I do not know if they account for the storm. Not sure how much rain to expect either.


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## cuda67bnl (Sep 11, 2018)

I’ve got a boat chartered Saturday, out of Darien. Will be shore/pier fishing Thursday and Friday. Hope it all stays way north!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2018)

Cumberlandjg said:


> Those graphics are showing significant wave heights around 2 ft around St Marys area so fishing intercoastal and the creeks should be good as long as wind isnt too bad.
> 
> All the forecasts I see call for 5-10 mph W winds but I do not know if they account for the storm. Not sure how much rain to expect either.


If the latest models are close to right you won't be heading down this weekend. There's still just too much disagreement among all of the model products and I am hopeful that tomorrow will bring more agreement and a better idea of landfall and track.


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## Mayberry (Sep 11, 2018)

My trip isn't for this weekend.  It's next weekend.  I'm wondering what this shift in the storm will do for fishing inshore around Georgia, 200 miles west of where the storm makes landfall.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 11, 2018)

Mayberry said:


> My trip isn't for this weekend.  It's next weekend.  I'm wondering what this shift in the storm will do for fishing inshore around Georgia, 200 miles west of where the storm makes landfall.


A week away should be fine, unless another storm comes along. They are lined up like jets landing at Hartsfield-Jackson airport right now.


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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 11, 2018)

The following is my best guess, and it does differ a little from the "pro" forcasters, I am right and they are wrong because I have - -  bigger dice!  

We are already expecting higher tides (lunar high cycle) plus the "push" caused by significant wave action piling more water onshore, so expect coastal high tides anywhere from one to three feet greater than normal.  The combination of enhanced wave action and greater volume of water pushing into the rivers will cause a lot of mudding, silting, disturbed waters, and some nasty tidal flows inshore.

On the other hand, storm surge will almost exclusively be northern coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia (partly dependent on landfall) so the storm surge likely will have very little impact on coastal Georgia. More good news is that both long period waves and the storm waves should begin to settle along the coast from Cumberland up through St Simons by Saturday.  Near shore boating will still be rough, but doable.  Tidal river boating could be tricky.

By next weekend the fish will probably be pretty hungry after missing out on a bunch of meals due to messy waters.  Tides will have settled some, but guessing wave action 10 days into the future is probably more difficult than picking the next Kentucky Derby winner a year in advance!


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## joboo (Sep 12, 2018)

Ugh, we are headed down Sat morning for a week long fishing trip. Not sure if the whole Family can reschedule vacations to wait another week.
Now I just saw where one model sends it back south East into Ga.
Decisions, decisions....


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## Steve762us (Sep 12, 2018)

GeorgiaBob said:


> The following is my best guess, and it does differ a little from the "pro" forcasters, I am right and they are wrong because I have - -  bigger dice!



If we're down to dice measuring, I'll say I don't put any faith into the
landfall predictions, more than 72 hours out--and really, 48 hours out.

Now they're showing it coming close to NC, but hooking _south _and paralleling
the SC coast...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 12, 2018)

Steve762us said:


> If we're down to dice measuring, I'll say I don't put any faith into the
> landfall predictions, more than 72 hours out--and really, 48 hours out.
> 
> Now they're showing it coming close to NC, but hooking _south _and paralleling
> the SC coast...


Anything outside of 24 hours with this storm is sketchy. 12 hours could even be subject. That being said, I put all of the most likely scenarios in the MET SHACK a few minutes ago.


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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 12, 2018)

Much of the hurricane "forecasting" is ill informed guesswork, but people still believe in the Fed Government and it's magic NOAA - far too much.  The National Hurricane Center guesses about every hurricane and is off every time - by significant numbers. The AVERAGE error in hurricane tracks is over 130 miles for their three day projections and 30% of the time they are completely wrong about their 5 day "cone of uncertainty."

They usually are also wrong about overall size, track speed, and wind speed.  As a simple "for instance," go back to the NHC forecast strength of Florence for today from their forcast just two days ago, 145 mph up to 155mph. The actual reports for today are below 130mph (115kts).  That is still a very powerful hurricane, but there is also a VERY significant difference in the damage caused by 150mph winds and 125mph winds.  

I am not a professional meteorologist but I can read, and I do have a memory, so I can figure out when it is really stupid to depend on NOAA-NHC, and when their efforts make some sense.  For Florence, the positions of existing high and low pressure areas, sheer winds, warm waters, and fronts, made it likely that Florence would to hit the coast somewhere north of Charleston, SC and then wander about.  The rest of the NHC forecasting was just computer modelling (another way of saying guesswork).  

And remember - those weather models, that cannot figure out where a hurricane is going to hit a day or two from now, are the same computer models used to "forecast" man made catastrophic global warming over the next 80 years.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 12, 2018)

GeorgiaBob said:


> And remember - those weather models, that cannot figure out where a hurricane is going to hit a day or two from now, are the same computer models used to "forecast" man made catastrophic global warming over the next 80 years.


Actually they are not. 10 day and mesoscale models are for short term forecasting.

The Global Warming scam scientist used models such as the MJO and various other long range Oscillation models plus longer range data while in putting flawed information in order to get the desire results to fit their agenda.


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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 12, 2018)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actually they are not. 10 day and mesoscale models are for short term forecasting.
> 
> The Global Warming scam scientist used models such as the MJO and various other long range Oscillation models plus longer range data while in putting flawed information in order to get the desire results to fit their agenda.



You are, in detail, correct, I stand PARTIALLY corrected.  But as a generality I am also correct.  The short term forecasting models, surface wind models, upper atmosphere wind patterning models, mid term general models, long term (as in 10 days or more) prediction models, seasonal forecasting models, and global predictors (annual, multi-seasonal, and global long term [multi-year] and global warming models are all direct descendants of a group of weather (storm) forecast computer models developed in the mid- 1970s.

Nearly every computer weather model, including all of the generally accepted "global warming" computer models, still includes actual code from the first generation weather models.  To a limited extent, the models work - short term - and that is why they are used.  Unfortunately, the models are too often misused.  Just like NOAA/NHC attempts to predict the path and strength of hurricanes for 5 days into the future, when the models and historical data can reasonable predict no better than 60% accuracy at no more than two to three days.

The same concept of "loading historical data" into a predictive computer model, and adding current information, in an effort to predict what will happen next, is used both for current weather forecasting and for global "warming" models.  And both types of computer models share some original weather code.  On that basis, I claim that my original statement is valid.

Your point about flawed (or just as accurate, "falsified") data in "global warming" data is also valid.  But even with correct historical data, the models simply could not work.  There are too few reporting stations for accurate global coverage.  The time frame is tiny (in every case less than 200 years of limited reporting). The capability of current computers too limited to process the necessary amount of data.  And just as important - none of the "global warming" models account for "natural" factors like vulcanism, solar impact variation, or shifts in magnetic poles.


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## Rabun (Sep 12, 2018)

Here's our present picture of NA weather fronts that could or could not affect Flo's course.  It's a c_rap shoot


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## lagrangedave (Sep 12, 2018)

That tells me it hits South Carolina coast and then shots up the coast in a north easterly direction.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 12, 2018)

lagrangedave said:


> That tells me it hits South Carolina coast and then shots up the coast in a north easterly direction.


Lows are attracted the area of most favorable conditions, which are other lows. I believe this is why the EURO has it coming all of the way down to Ga for a landfall. 

Time will tell.


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## Rabun (Sep 12, 2018)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lows are attracted the area of most favorable conditions, which are other lows. I believe this is why the EURO has it coming all of the way down to Ga for a landfall.
> 
> Time will tell.



I tend to agree with you...now how far south and how far west it gets is the question.  Hopefully it makes landfall first before heading south.  Hanging just offshore and skirting down the coast would not be good at all.


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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 12, 2018)

I know a few models have Florence pushing Southwest just before or immediately after landfall - but = = = The weak low pressure ridge moving east from the Smokeys is going to want to push the hurricane north.  The counterclockwise rotation means impact between the west side of Flo and the weaker low boundary will not be a significant issue, but my bet is that will be enough to keep Florence from making it's way to Georgia before moving inshore.

My bet is still landfall north of Charleston, SC followed by a very slow move inland for at least 24 hours before bending south (if it even bends south).  That means Savannah might get a little wind and North GA will get wind, thunderstorms, and a LOT of rain.


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## WalkinDead (Sep 12, 2018)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...aphic=-68.15, 30.17, 3000/loc=-66.024, 27.462

The above site maps the wind speeds over the entire earth from the surface into the stratosphere.  If you look at the surface wind speed of Florence the highest wind speed atm is around 150 kmh.  Multiply that by .6 and you get 92 mph.  They are using the upper atmosphere wind speeds to categorize this as a cat 4 when, in reality, it's just a cat 1 or barely a cat 2 at best.  More fake news to panic the public into abandoning their homes and spending money they don't have.  Trust your "government" to screw you every way they can.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 12, 2018)




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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 12, 2018)

The latest update from NHC (8pm 9/12) showes Florence unexpectedly weakening. Max sustained winds at 115mph and 28.3 inches of mercury.  Still a dangerous storm, but further evidence that the art of weather forecasting is NOT (yet?) a real science. Whatever is happening, the computer models did not predict it!


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## Cumberlandjg (Sep 13, 2018)

So back to the orignal question everyone, can I go fishing around St Marys inshore and not worry about the weather or huge tides? Everything I am reading suggests a good fishing day.


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## Rabun (Sep 13, 2018)

latest map....


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## Rabun (Sep 13, 2018)

Cumberlandjg said:


> So back to the orignal question everyone, can I go fishing around St Marys inshore and not worry about the weather or huge tides? Everything I am reading suggests a good fishing day.



I would go for it and keep a guarded eye on the weather and stay in relatively guarded areas.  Looks like minimal rain but winds will be picking up out of the W and SW Sat and Sun.  I would think the tides will be impacted...lower than normal.  Shouldn't see any storm surge or big influx of fresh water from run off.  Let us know what you decide.  What kind of boat will you be in?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 13, 2018)

Tides and current are presently being effected all of the way to the Bahamas.

But hey, , , , , ,


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## GeorgiaBob (Sep 13, 2018)

Senior Miguel has a point.

If you plan to go near shore Atlantic, expect confused, choppy waters with onshore swells of up to 6' and wicked cross waves of 3 to 4'.  Rain bands may also show up moving in from the northeast as the Gulf Stream pushes moisture up to be moved along by the outer bands of Florence.  Also watch out for some nasty tide runs through the St Marys Inlet as those wave enhanced, swollen tides push through the cut.

Have fun, enjoy the warm weather and rollercoaster rides!


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## Rabun (Sep 13, 2018)

GeorgiaBob said:


> Senior Miguel has a point.
> 
> If you plan to go near shore Atlantic, expect confused, choppy waters with onshore swells of up to 6' and wicked cross waves of 3 to 4'.  Rain bands may also show up moving in from the northeast as the Gulf Stream pushes moisture up to be moved along by the outer bands of Florence.  Also watch out for some nasty tide runs through the St Marys Inlet as those wave enhanced, swollen tides push through the cut.
> 
> Have fun, enjoy the warm weather and rollercoaster rides!



I am assuming when he said inshore he meant within the rivers and creeks...protected areas.  Would not venture into sounds, bays, open waters.  But I am curious what y'all think about how the GA coast water levels will be affected...rivers & streams.  You think there will be a high water surge along our coast?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 13, 2018)

Rabun said:


> I am assuming when he said inshore he meant within the rivers and creeks...protected areas.  Would not venture into sounds, bays, open waters.  But I am curious what y'all think about how the GA coast water levels will be affected...rivers & streams.  You think there will be a high water surge along our coast?


I think the quality of water will be horrible as Florence moves south producing a good offshore wind flow which will aid in pushing water out of the creeks, muddying it up real good. 

If florence weakens sufficiently and goes inshore sooner than predicted then there could be no effect at all, especially as far south as St. Mary's. Unfortunately this is a wait and see forecast. Having to depend on weather models in a difficult to predict landfall like this flat out sux. My prediction when this all started was a Pamlico Sound landfall and recurving north back out to the Atlantic. It's a shame these stupid storms don't listen to me. Would save everyone a bunch of grief. But hey, at least I called Gordon right with a Biloxi to Mobile landfall....


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## Rabun (Sep 13, 2018)

Yes...she's a fickle girl for sure.  I really think she will track into SC staying inland after making landfall in NC and then head north west over rabun county/greenville area by Monday hopefully continuing that track never to seen again in the SE.  SWAG!!


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## Cumberlandjg (Sep 13, 2018)

Rabun said:


> Yes...she's a fickle girl for sure.  I really think she will track into SC staying inland after making landfall in NC and then head north west over rabun county/greenville area by Monday hopefully continuing that track never to seen again in the SE.  SWAG!!




Planning on inshore, not venturing off offshore or even off of Cumberland. I am getting conflicting reports on the tides from folks on the coast so not sure what to believe.

As it is tide is only 7.1 and 0.6 so its not a huge tide to begin with. So a 2-3 ft tide increase wouldnt be anything too out of the norm for the area. 

Wind forecast is 5-10 mph, precipitation 10-15% chance. 

Seems like a good day to fish minus the storm up North. Also storm is tracking to move North once it comes inland so I am going to make a decision tomorrow on it.


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## Rabun (Sep 13, 2018)

I really think it should be ok...or at the very least worth a look sea and then decide.


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## boatbuilder (Sep 13, 2018)

Cumberlandjg said:


> Planning on inshore, not venturing off offshore or even off of Cumberland. I am getting conflicting reports on the tides from folks on the coast so not sure what to believe.
> 
> As it is tide is only 7.1 and 0.6 so its not a huge tide to begin with. So a 2-3 ft tide increase wouldnt be anything too out of the norm for the area.
> 
> ...


 
It sounds like a good fishing day to me but you might not do much catching.

I still like the fishing though.


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## Steve762us (Sep 14, 2018)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Anything outside of 24 hours with this storm is sketchy. 12 hours could even be subject. That being said, I put all of the most likely scenarios in the MET SHACK a few minutes ago.



What's the Met Shack?!?!  

EDIT: I Gargled it and found the Met Shack...one
of Woody's Campfire subforums.

Strangely, its not listed on the forum/subforum page...

http://forum.gon.com/


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 14, 2018)

Steve762us said:


> What's the Met Shack?!?!
> 
> EDIT: I Gargled it and found the Met Shack...one
> of Woody's Campfire subforums.
> ...


Actually it is. Go to around the campfire and look at the top of the page.


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## Steve762us (Sep 15, 2018)

Aha...squirreled away!


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## Rabun (Sep 17, 2018)

Hey Cumberlandjg...did you get out on the water this weekend...just curious if you had any luck.


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## Cumberlandjg (Sep 28, 2018)

Rabun said:


> Hey Cumberlandjg...did you get out on the water this weekend...just curious if you had any luck.




Hey I did get out that weekend, I was out for about an hour and next thing I know my bilge started spitting out water/fuel combo. My check valve on top of the tank (aluminum) had corroded and was leaking fuel as I was running. So that ended the day right there and we headed back in. $20.00 repair and I was back out last weekend.

But the weekend directly during/after the hurricane in the carolinas the tides were normal, wind was relatively low around 10 mph and water conditions seemed fine. Seemed like a normal nice day. Wish I could tell you more how the bite was.


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## Rabun (Oct 1, 2018)

Sorry for the mechanical issues. Sounds like conditions were fine though. Good
Luck in the future!


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