# ***Severe Weather Thread Numero Dos 2015***



## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 24, 2015)

Didn't think we'd get to this point as boring as the weather has been, but we'll get this one rolling just in case something pops up between now and Dec. 32nd.


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## NCHillbilly (Sep 24, 2015)

Alert: I'm going to the beach next week. Ida will head that way, and strengthen. And attract company.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 24, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Alert: I'm going to the beach next week. Ida will head that way, and strengthen. And attract company.



You can bet your bippy it'll happen too.


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## shakey gizzard (Sep 24, 2015)

Just spranklin imby!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

I think the same idjits that are makin up all of the climate change garbage are in charge of the great el nino propaganda campaign this year. They just posted an announcement on Facebook proclaiming; "El Nino is Here!!!" Along with the below map showing it warmer and dryer than normal here. Problem is, just like with climate change, the actual weather can't read their stupid maps and theories. In fact, according to the forecast for the next 10 days the weather has no intention of following their garbage conjecture. Personally I think the liberal progressive climate change morons have infiltrated NOAA and are now spreading their lies there as well, to fit the climate change narrative and agenda.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

Here's the 10 forecast for IMBY. Would someone from the El Nino Climate Change (ENCC) division of NOAA please show me the "warmer and dryer" in this forecast?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

NAM Precip and Temp loops


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

AND the CFS2 long range product. Definitely some interesting stuff coming in from the gulf and down from the north, if you can be patient for it. Been watching this for a week and it has fluctuated very little, which is good, for now. 

This is te 850 mb temp map, or temps and air flow at just under 5k ft.


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## BROWNING7WSM (Sep 25, 2015)

Plots are loving this rain.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Plots are loving this rain.



But, but it's not really raining here. It's warmer and dryer. El Nino says so.


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## spydermon (Sep 25, 2015)

gotta give more explanations with these maps!  my mind and eyes can only work so fast and they cant read those things.  we gonna get rain or cool air coming?  

I think ga will be in dry in the southern zone...none of that green lokoed to dip much below macon


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 25, 2015)

There's still a spinny thing in there.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

spydermon said:


> gotta give more explanations with these maps!  my mind and eyes can only work so fast and they cant read those things.  we gonna get rain or cool air coming?
> 
> I think ga will be in dry in the southern zone...none of that green lokoed to dip much below macon


That green is 8° celsius which = 46° fairenheit. Albeit at 850mb, that is still plenty cool enough for my liking, contrary to what the El Nino progressives are trying to sell us. 

The rain / precip map is a NAM model, it is only good for 3 days out. Looks like periods of rain, even if it's light will be regular. Attempting to forecast precip out as far as the CFS2 will reach is futile. 

Keep staring at the pretty colors, they'll start to make sense eventually, even in SE Bama.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> There's still a spinny thing in there.



SHHHHH. DDD might hear you......


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> SHHHHH. DDD might hear you......


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## DDD (Sep 25, 2015)

Whoa Nelly at the GFS in the 8-13 day range.  

Yikes.  That LPS just camps out over TX and LA and then SLOWLY works East just dumping untold amounts of rain.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

DDD said:


> Whoa Nelly at the GFS in the 8-13 day range.
> 
> Yikes.  That LPS just camps out over TX and LA and then SLOWLY works East just dumping untold amounts of rain.



It can't be, we are officially under El Nino...


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## DDD (Sep 25, 2015)

At 144 hours she is over LA and Arky.  

At 312 hours she is just reaching Alabama.  

For those scoring at home, that 7 days to move 2 states.  Oh Lawd.


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## DDD (Sep 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It can't be, we are officially under El Nino...



I heard that.  It will be a dry LPS.


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## DDD (Sep 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think the same idjits that are makin up all of the climate change garbage are in charge of the great el nino propaganda campaign this year. They just posted an announcement on Facebook proclaiming; "El Nino is Here!!!" Along with the below map showing it warmer and dryer than normal here. Problem is, just like with climate change, the actual weather can't read their stupid maps and theories. In fact, according to the forecast for the next 10 days the weather has no intention of following their garbage conjecture. Personally I think the liberal progressive climate change morons have infiltrated NOAA and are now spreading their lies there as well, to fit the climate change narrative and agenda.




This may be the dumbest map I have seen of all time.


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## smokey30725 (Sep 25, 2015)

DDD said:


> This may be the dumbest map I have seen of all time.



The Al Gore Center for Climatology is busy trying to beat that one.


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## BROWNING7WSM (Sep 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> But, but it's not really raining here. It's warmer and dryer. El Nino says so.



Well, I don't speak Spanish and it's raining where I'm at.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 25, 2015)

Man, that thing just camps there.


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## spydermon (Sep 25, 2015)

when is that supposed to get here..or is it?  attempting to look at this in relation to planting soon.

I need arrows, lines, very detailed instructions, squiggly lines...yea im that type


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 25, 2015)

spydermon said:


> when is that supposed to get here..or is it?  attempting to look at this in relation to planting soon.
> 
> I need arrows, lines, very detailed instructions, squiggly lines...yea im that type



You missed your planting date by about two weeks.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 26, 2015)

From WxSouth


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## BROWNING7WSM (Sep 26, 2015)

good


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## blood on the ground (Sep 26, 2015)

As I said in the other SWT.... Washing my truck works every time!


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## elfiii (Sep 26, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> But, but it's not really raining here. It's warmer and dryer. El Nino says so.



Well, their own rainfall mapping page says my foodplots got 1.5" of rain that didn't happen in just the last 24 hours.

I'm confused. Which lie is the correct one?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 27, 2015)

elfiii said:


> Well, their own rainfall mapping page says my foodplots got 1.5" of rain that didn't happen in just the last 24 hours.
> 
> I'm confused. Which lie is the correct one?



My lies are always correct. For example, there is one floating about that our next rain maker will magically transport itself from Nebraska to the Gulf of Mexico and then back up through Jawja. 

Take a look at this map and tell me if that part of the Yucatan looks like Nebraska to you?

(actually the very next rainmaker (Mon-Wed) will come from the Gulf via Nebraska, but that doesn't fit the long range narrative of keeping you idjits on your toes.)


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## KyDawg (Sep 27, 2015)

Looks like I am headed right into it. Driving to Gulf Shores today.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 27, 2015)

KyDawg said:


> Looks like I am headed right into it. Driving to Gulf Shores today.



Yep. Enjoy the wetness.


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## DDD (Sep 29, 2015)

Rain is finally going to end around Thursday and the weekend looks marvelous.

About time!


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

DDD said:


> Rain is finally going to end around Thursday and the weekend looks marvelous.
> 
> About time!



Figures.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Figures.



What? You want rain this weekend?


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What? You want rain this weekend?



Yes. If I can't be out on the lake, no one should be out on the lake...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yes. If I can't be out on the lake, no one should be out on the lake...


So why can't you be out on the lake?


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So why can't you be out on the lake?



Heading to Vegas starting tomorrow through the weekend.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 29, 2015)

here is hoping for less humidity and a freeze warning soon!
Nic should even give a amen to that one!


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Sep 29, 2015)

Tropical storm brewing any chance it will slide west?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Heading to Vegas starting tomorrow through the weekend.


Just leave the keys to your boat with me and DDD. We'll make sure she gets a good workout this weekend. 


blood on the ground said:


> here is hoping for less humidity and a freeze warning soon!
> Nic should even give a amen to that one!


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## smokey30725 (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just leave the keys to your boat with me and DDD. We'll make sure she gets a good workout this weekend.



His boat is named the Serenity. Not the Insanity.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just leave the keys to your boat with me and DDD. We'll make sure she gets a good workout this weekend.



I do need to get you guys out to say thanks for all you do.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I do need to get you guys out to say thanks for all you do.



Let's wait til after this weekends game, that way I can stomp him in fishin too...


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Let's wait til after this weekends game, that way I can stomp him in fishin too...



Fair 'nuff. I'll PM you guys when I get back into town.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Fair 'nuff. I'll PM you guys when I get back into town.



Hopefully you'll be totin lots of cash...


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hopefully you'll be totin lots of cash...



I won't be gambling that much. Just a few hands here or there. 

Although to tempt it, I'm going by Mr. Papagiorgio this weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I won't be gambling that much. Just a few hands here or there.
> 
> Although to tempt it, I'm going by Mr. Papagiorgio this weekend.



I have no idea what that means.....


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120434/


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120434/



Beverly D'Angelo was hot.....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

Did y'all hear the incredible news from NASA yesterday about discovering water on mars?

I found a pic.


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## StriperrHunterr (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Beverly D'Angelo was hot.....



No. Doubt. 

Anyway, Russ fakes an ID as Mr. Papagiorgio and wins 6 awesome cars in slot machines. My ambitions are smaller. 

Comp'd VIP suite and have the trip break even.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> No. Doubt.
> 
> Anyway, Russ fakes an ID as Mr. Papagiorgio and wins 6 awesome cars in slot machines. My ambitions are smaller.
> 
> Comp'd VIP suite and have the trip break even.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 29, 2015)

Looks like NC Hillbilly has caused an upcoming bout of flooding for the east coast states all because he thought he needed to go to the beach.


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## shakey gizzard (Sep 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like NC Hillbilly has caused an upcoming bout of flooding for the east coast states all because he thought he needed to go to the beach.



Happens every time!


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## Hooked On Quack (Sep 29, 2015)

Just be glad Pookie ain't goin to da beach . . .


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## RinggoldGa (Sep 30, 2015)

Biggest question is what's the weather going to be like in Athens for the UGA/BAMA game Saturday?

We going to stay on the sidelines of all the excitement through the weekend with scattered showers and light rain or will some of the crazy heavy rainfall find its way westward?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 30, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Biggest question is what's the weather going to be like in Athens for the UGA/BAMA game Saturday?
> 
> We going to stay on the sidelines of all the excitement through the weekend with scattered showers and light rain or will some of the crazy heavy rainfall find its way westward?



So far Sat. and Sun. are suppose to be good days, with the chance of a bright glowing object in the sky. 

So far. 

Nobody knows how far south and west Joaquin will go before she makes her turn. 

Regular and even dynamic fronts are fairly predictable. Irregular weather, such as huge spinny things out in the big pond, not so much.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

This hurricane to me is interesting.  The way the models are starting to trend, I don't know that I have ever seen a hurricane come up the East Coast and make a "Hard Left Turn" like some models are showing.  

I for one think the impacts from Virginia up to Boston could be extreme if she "Whips" into the East Coast.  That would be something to behold.


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## rjcruiser (Sep 30, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like NC Hillbilly has caused an upcoming bout of flooding for the east coast states all because he thought he needed to go to the beach.



He called it months ago.  Amazing.

I'm actually headed down to Charleston on Saturday for a few days....hoping it stays North and East and doesn't cause too much rain.


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## Hornet22 (Sep 30, 2015)

rjcruiser said:


> He called it months ago.  Amazing.
> 
> I'm actually headed down to Charleston on Saturday for a few days....hoping it stays North and East and doesn't cause too much rain.



It don't take a lot of rain for them streets to flood over there


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## rjcruiser (Sep 30, 2015)

Hornet22 said:


> It don't take a lot of rain for them streets to flood over there



Yeah...I know.    Gonna be an island or two south of the city....I sure hope Joaquin doesn't mess up the trip.


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## RinggoldGa (Sep 30, 2015)

This West/Northwest, turn due north, then hard 90 degree turn left to slam/whip into the eastern coast is bizzarre.  

I'm 1/100th as knowlegeable about this as you and Miquel but WxSouth just posted one recent model run that shows Joaquin merging with the low over Georgia.  I'd imagine if that occurs we'd have a pretty wet/windy couple of days early next week.  

All I know is what I read and it seems all the folks like you two are all atwitter over how rare/crazy the forecasting of this storm track is becoming.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

Here are the low temps going into Sunday Night / Monday Morning and the low temps Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  The Monday -Wednesday morning hunts should be DYNOOOOMITE!

If you bow hunters want some comfy morning hunts, this next week is your week.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

Latest run of the GFS is even more bizarre than the last.

GFS now brings Joaquin into the outer banks of North Carolina as a major hurricane at 90 hours.  It comes on shore and makes a bee line for Colombia, South Carolina.  

It does a burn out over South Carolina and then starts up the coast to finish what it began and just rakes the coast line. 

Not sure I buy the solution at face value but we are inside of 90 hours now.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 30, 2015)

DDD said:


> Latest run of the GFS is even more bizarre than the last.
> 
> GFS now brings Joaquin into the outer banks of North Carolina as a major hurricane at 90 hours.  It comes on shore and makes a bee line for Colombia, South Carolina.
> 
> ...


Thank God the GFS is not geared towards hurricanes.


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## RinggoldGa (Sep 30, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Thank God the GFS is not geared towards hurricanes.



Appears Juaquin may do his impression of a Bama fan staggering around in shock/half drunk after Saturday night.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Appears Juaquin may do his impression of a Bama fan staggering around in shock/half drunk after Saturday night.



Please don't get him started!!!   

We are keeping the trash talking in the sports forum!


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## Bob Shaw (Sep 30, 2015)

We just got back, on Sunday from a Eastern Caribbean cruise out of Canaveral. We came through that area Saturday night. I'm sure glad we scheduled the cruise for last week instead of this week. We had great weather the whole time.


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## whitetaco02 (Sep 30, 2015)

Ok, so I am heading to Massachusetts and New Hampshire this Tuesday thru Sunday. How bad is it going to be for us?


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

whitetaco02 said:


> Ok, so I am heading to Massachusetts and New Hampshire this Tuesday thru Sunday. How bad is it going to be for us?



It will be gone way NE by Wednesday.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2015)

Here is the precip map for the next 5 days.  It's a little wet up the East Coast.  Interesting how much it shows around Savannah.  

This is the GFS so who knows if it's right in relation to the Joaquin storm.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 30, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Appears Juaquin may do his impression of a Bama fan staggering around in shock/half drunk after Saturday night.


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## blood on the ground (Sep 30, 2015)

I'm ready for some good roof sittin weather


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## whitetaco02 (Oct 1, 2015)

DDD said:


> It will be gone way NE by Wednesday.



thanks!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

Watching everyone try to forecast Juaquins path and effect is some of the best comedy entertainment out there right now. Its like watching a bunch of blindfolded knife throwers on amateur night in the balloon factory.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

I'm betting on SW dry slotting to blow Juaquin apart. We'll still get wedgie moisture, and a good chance of significant amounts briefly as it gets absorbed by the change in patterns from blocking highs to more of a zonal split jet like we're use to seeing. 

Look for troughs to be the norm in the extreme SW US which will repeatedly spawn cut off lows. Those typically will move to the SW from there. But as the oscillation of these troughs move further to the east over the next few weeks, a good cutoff low over the arklatex area and southward could make our weather more interesting. 

Stay tuned, the fun hasn't even started yet.


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## shakey gizzard (Oct 1, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Watching everyone try to forecast Juaquins path and effect is some of the best comedy entertainment out there right now. Its like watching a bunch of blindfolded knife throwers on amateur night in the balloon factory.



Aint that the truth! Yesterday was supposed to be gloomy with a peek of sunshine. Did'nt see a single cloud until 5pm


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## blood on the ground (Oct 1, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm betting on SW dry slotting to blow Juaquin apart. We'll still get wedgie moisture, and a good chance of significant amounts briefly as it gets absorbed by the change in patterns from blocking highs to more of a zonal split jet like we're use to seeing.
> 
> Look for troughs to be the norm in the extreme SW US which will repeatedly spawn cut off lows. Those typically will move to the SW from there. But as the oscillation of these troughs move further to the east over the next few weeks, a good cutoff low over the arklatex area and southward could make our weather more interesting.
> 
> Stay tuned, the fun hasn't even started yet.



so, for the very small amount of folks on here that cant under stand this....... ..... Over the next couple of weeks there will be days of both sun shine and rain. Sometimes it may even rain at night ... And the temps will be much cooler than they were in July and August.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Watching everyone try to forecast Juaquins path and effect is some of the best comedy entertainment out there right now. Its like watching a bunch of blindfolded knife throwers on amateur night in the balloon factory.



Latest run of the GFS has Joaquin fishing out to sea and no where near the coast.  The EURO model was showing this yesterday and may score in the end.  

It would be a blessing because he/she is going to ramp up and be a strong system for sure.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Looking at the HRRR simulated radar, should be good rain coverage West and North West of Atlanta and by the simulation it looks to be moving East to West.

I would say those 7-8PM baseball games will be in jeopardy tonight.  Looks pretty quiet for most of the day.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Rainfall totals for the region are not impressive but climb as your go East and North East.  Over the next 2.5 days we are looking at rainfall totals around 2".  Parts of Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina are looking at 6" maybe a little more.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Just looking at these spaghetti maps...  No wonder it's anybody's guess.  Heck, some of them shove it right back into Georgia.


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## blood on the ground (Oct 1, 2015)

DDD said:


> Just looking at these spaghetti maps...  No wonder it's anybody's guess.  Heck, some of them shove it right back into Georgia.



First.. I didn't realize there were so many weather models... and 2nd that's just a dang mess of possibilities!!!


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## fountain (Oct 1, 2015)

I just want the cool air! ..a little rain along and along will be nice too.  how do I order that and do they take paypal?

o yea..in s.e. ga...forgot to add the location


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

NJ has issued a state of emergency and it's in the Bahama's?


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## RinggoldGa (Oct 1, 2015)

So DDD/Miquel, you aren't believing the "clown maps" showing 10-20 inches in a large swatch of South Carolina?

Clemson Ath Dept issued a statement that they were monitoring forecast.  Buddy who knows folks in that AD says that cancelling their game with Notre Dame is on the table if it appears likely to get crazy amounts of rain.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> So DDD/Miquel, you aren't believing the "clown maps" showing 10-20 inches in a large swatch of South Carolina?
> 
> Clemson Ath Dept issued a statement that they were monitoring forecast.  Buddy who knows folks in that AD says that cancelling their game with Notre Dame is on the table if it appears likely to get crazy amounts of rain.



I am trying to make this as clear as possible.

Even if the hurricane goes 300 miles off the coast, the moisture, along with the Upper Level Low in the middle of the country is pushing copious amounts of moisture North and NE.  

Everyone needs to understand, that given the set up as depicted by numerous models, the rain will come even if the hurricane does not. 

It is not my forecast, I am simply telling you what the maps show.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

This from the NWS.  
This is why Clemson is worried.  Everyone knows leprechauns cannot swim!


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

If you go look at the radar now, you can see where the moisture is coming from and what direction it's traveling.  It's coming out of the SE and traveling in a NW direction.


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

NWS in Atlanta is always conservative and today is no different.  Look for those 3-5" totals to turn into 5-7" totals.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON QPF. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...SATURDAY
AND EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
GOING WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST GA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO THE WATCH.
DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THE LONG TERM.


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## smokey30725 (Oct 1, 2015)

DDD said:


> NWS in Atlanta is always conservative and today is no different.  Look for those 3-5" totals to turn into 5-7" totals.
> 
> .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
> MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE
> ...



Yowza!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

The NWS mets have given up on agreement with this hurricanes track. 

Here's their latest.


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## shakey gizzard (Oct 1, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The NWS mets have given up on agreement with this hurricanes track.
> 
> Here's their latest.



 Awesome!


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## mguthrie (Oct 1, 2015)

Through some tomato sauce on there and you'd have a meal.I just hope it stops raining


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## PappyHoel (Oct 1, 2015)

I hope that things gone by next Friday I have a cruise in the Bahamas


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

PappyHoel said:


> I hope that things gone by next Friday I have a cruise in the Bahamas



It might be a little messed up by the time you get there. Take some garbage bags so you can help with the cleanup.


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## PappyHoel (Oct 1, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It might be a little messed up by the time you get there. Take some garbage bags so you can help with the cleanup.



I might just stay on the boat and drink.


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## RinggoldGa (Oct 1, 2015)

DDD said:


> I am trying to make this as clear as possible.
> 
> Even if the hurricane goes 300 miles off the coast, the moisture, along with the Upper Level Low in the middle of the country is pushing copious amounts of moisture North and NE.
> 
> ...



Oh I knew that.  I've had to explain the "other low" to a bunch of folks today.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Oh I knew that.  I've had to explain the "other low" to a bunch of folks today.



It get's better, just wait.


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## blood on the ground (Oct 1, 2015)

If y'all need me to clear things up in here and nail down the forecast just let me know!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 1, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> If y'all need me to clear things up in here and nail down the forecast just let me know!


Go for it......


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## srb (Oct 1, 2015)

Here is my latest ,pouring rain & lots of it!!!No sun for 4/5 More days???


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## Robbie101 (Oct 1, 2015)

Keep crossing my fingers hoping it'll turn north and miss us by about 50 miles. Wanted to bowhunt Saturday but looks like it'll be a wash.


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## shakey gizzard (Oct 1, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> If y'all need me to clear things up in here and nail down the forecast just let me know!



Is this a good weekend for a garage sale?


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## whitetaco02 (Oct 1, 2015)

Absolutely flooding down here right now. Got some hail as well.  Flooding as in a lot of rain. Lol


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## Hooked On Quack (Oct 1, 2015)

whitetaco02 said:


> Absolutely flooding down here right now. Got some hail as well.  Flooding as in a lot of rain. Lol





Where is here ???


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

whitetaco02 said:


> Absolutely flooding down here right now. Got some hail as well.  Flooding as in a lot of rain. Lol



Where are you at?


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## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Robert over at WxSouth.com put this out a little while ago:

I am (and have been ) leaning toward a much more Georgia impact than models were showing.  I would spread the heaviest 8 to 10" rain totals further south and west than European has it this run.  The ECMWF has ever so slowly pivoted more and more southwest with its max totals, as there would always be some adjustments. Now the biggest question for eastern VA and points north, will be any impact from Joaquin.  For now, the models are leaning more toward remaining offshore, and it's hard to go against that, even though its still possible they could all be wrong. I'm not a hurricane expert and always follow the NHC and advisories, but I still won't be surprised to see the strong trough eventually merge with Joaquin.  It could be that the storm is so strong a Cat 4, that it won't be easily merged with a midlatitude trough, and that may be why the models are against the Hurricane from merging with the closed low.  Who am I to argue with the physics of a model.  And since Joaquin isn't cold core, or in the process of becoming extra tropical, like Sandy, then its the biggest object and more resistant, rather than a trough to its west being stronger.  So for now, I'm going to assume that Joaquin stays seperate...No guarantees on that, and keep a close eye on tracks...the storm should begin to turn due north quickly in Friday morning according to model guidance.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Oct 1, 2015)

whitetaco02 said:


> Absolutely flooding down here right now. Got some hail as well.  Flooding as in a lot of rain. Lol





Hooked On Quack said:


> Where is here ???





DDD said:


> Where are you at?







Radar's looking kinda nasty between Milledgeville and Sandersville.


----------



## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Ummmm.... I hope we all know how to swim.  Rainmegedon.


----------



## Head East (Oct 1, 2015)

I'm in Texas.  Delta doesn't believe there will be an issue getting back to Augusta on Saturday.  I'm trying to change my fight now.  Actually I was able to change flight for tomorrow.  They acknowledge the hurricane.  Agent conferred with their weather people.  They said no problemeo due to rain/hurricane right now.

I said...that's not was GON-DDD Miggy says.

Who?? she says???


----------



## Matt.M (Oct 1, 2015)

DDD said:


> I am trying to make this as clear as possible.
> 
> Even if the hurricane goes 300 miles off the coast, the moisture, along with the Upper Level Low in the middle of the country is pushing copious amounts of moisture North and NE.
> 
> Everyone needs to understand, that given the set up as depicted by numerous models, the rain will come even if the hurricane does not.



Thanks for stating this.  It clears things up for many. 

Now off to find a boat.


----------



## ClemsonRangers (Oct 1, 2015)

i dont believe it, cantore is in charleston though


----------



## RinggoldGa (Oct 1, 2015)

ddd said:


> ummmm.... I hope we all know how to swim.  Rainmegedon.



d, jd.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 1, 2015)

I hope we're not heading back to the ole rain every weekend pattern! I took days off work last week to go hunting and that was a wash... That really dampened my spirit.. rained on my parade...


----------



## doenightmare (Oct 1, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> I hope we're not heading back to the ole rain every weekend pattern! I took days off work last week to go hunting and that was a wash... That really dampened my spirit.. rained on my parade...



Ahh blood - you're all wet...........


----------



## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> I hope we're not heading back to the ole rain every weekend pattern! I took days off work last week to go hunting and that was a wash... That really dampened my spirit.. rained on my parade...



A weather buddy of mine said tonight... Welcome to the extreme El Nino winter.

Lord I hope not!


----------



## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

If you want to know how nuts the forecasting of Joaquin is...

The NAM model just slammed her into Savannah full speed ahead.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Oct 1, 2015)

Are they expecting any bad lightning to go with all this rain ??


----------



## DDD (Oct 1, 2015)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Are they expecting any bad lightning to go with all this rain ??



Everything I have seen just suggest heavy rain.

I just read the National Hurricane discussion and they are expecting the track to come back East.  This could get interesting over the next 24-48 hours.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> A weather buddy of mine said tonight... Welcome to the extreme El Nino winter.
> 
> Lord I hope not!



That could be a good thing... Right?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 2, 2015)

All the heavy rain is shifting east up into NC..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Now that's a cold North wind...
Got the gutter ferules hummin like a harmonica.

OH, you want to know about Juaquin? Jackie for short. 

This is the first simrad I've seen that makes sense. Get this Nor'Easter out of the way and you'll see what I've been sayin about dry air influx on Jackie, gives her a bad day early on, but then the two systems combine to head on up the coast, but I'm feeling pretty confident she's gonna lean eastward offshore as she moves northwards. Still gonna be a wet couple of days here in the deep SE until this Nor'Easter moves through. 

Last time we had one of these this strong I was workin a short gig in Savannah at a dock. Blew all of the water out of the creek and it was sleetin sideways. With no water in the creeks the mud started to slide out of the marshes and move the dock poles. Not a fun time.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Oct 2, 2015)

Not gonna be a fun time in the mines.  Called maint to check on auxiliary diesel pumps.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Not gonna be a fun time in the mines.  Called maint to check on auxiliary diesel pumps.



glug glug glug......


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> glug glug glug......



That is what happens after work.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> glug glug glug......





Several years ago I was standing on top of a 30' tank and watched 2 of 'em run and run and run, til the water went over the stacks.  Nothing we could do, but watch.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Several years ago I was standing on top of a 30' tank and watched 2 of 'em run and run and run, til the water went over the stacks.  Nothing we could do, but watch.



That's gotta suck. Hopefully we won't be talkin that kind of moisture fallin from the sky..............this time.


----------



## Jeff C. (Oct 2, 2015)

Miggy, how about that Clemson/ND game tomorrow night @ 8:00pm?

I'm heading there this morning to setup.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> Miggy, how about that Clemson/ND game tomorrow night @ 8:00pm?
> 
> I'm heading there this morning to setup.


Take your hip waders.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Somebody tell Tomeboyboots to get her floaties and water wings ready. The swamps a comin to her front door again. 

As you can see, decent rainfall up here, but down in central south and southeast ga it's gonna get ugly. IF this pans out. A lot of things can change over the next 24 hours to completely make this simrad accumulation projection totally null and void.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 2, 2015)

So now I need someone smarter than I to explain to me where all this rain is coming from? It seems to have scooted up the coast and over the Apps with a nice dry slot moving north.  Are we done?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

MariettaDawg said:


> So now I need someone smarter than I to explain to me where all this rain is coming from? It seems to have scooted up the coast and over the Apps with a nice dry slot moving north.  Are we done?



I think the map before your post will answer your last question.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think the map before your post will answer your last question.



Confidence high with that or is it buying into the model having Jackie arrive at Paula Dean's house?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

MariettaDawg said:


> Confidence high with that or is it buying into the model having Jackie arrive at Paula Dean's house?



This nor'easter ain't movin real fast. For now my confidence is pretty good in that map. I think the totals may be about 15-20% over what they'll be.

But then, I've been wrong twice before, or was it three times?


----------



## crackerdave (Oct 2, 2015)

Looks like n.e. Georgia's gonna get a frawg choker,too.


----------



## Jeff C. (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Take your hip waders.



In my case it may be chest waders!


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 2, 2015)

When can we be certain this is going to happen?


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)




----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

I would consider today the "calm before the storm".  The real rain should show up Saturday an Sunday.


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 2, 2015)

We finally got a decent rain last night. 2 9/10th inches. Most rain we've had here in over a year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> In my case it may be chest waders!


Dang.....


Migmack said:


> When can we be certain this is going to happen?


About an hour after it has stopped. 


DDD said:


> I would consider today the "calm before the storm".  The real rain should show up Saturday an Sunday.


If there comes a storm, for us.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

Just to be clear, the East side of the state is being called for targeting.  The west side of the state will say... "What's the big deal?"


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> Just to be clear, the East side of the state is being called for targeting.  The west side of the state will say... "What's the big deal?"


I can believe the east side will be called for targeting, holding, clipping and various other infractions. 

Oh and you might wanna go rescue one of your lesser educated Dawgie fans out of the "Official Bama Thread" He thinks it's open season in there, regardless of what the rules say.


----------



## humdandy (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> Just to be clear, the East side of the state is being called for targeting.  The west side of the state will say... "What's the big deal?"



Unless things change, Bulloch Co has had almost no rain at all in the past 24 hours.  They were calling for rain all day today and now it is down to 20%.

It was cool, windy and low humidity this morning.  I don't see how we are going to get all this rain they are talking about.  Is there something I am missing?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

humdandy said:


> Unless things change, Bulloch Co has had almost no rain at all in the past 24 hours.  They were calling for rain all day today and now it is down to 20%.
> 
> It was cool, windy and low humidity this morning.  I don't see how we are going to get all this rain they are talking about.  Is there something I am missing?



No, just a forecast that is morphing and changing constantly. That's why I'm not too worried for us up here north of the gnat line. 

Here's the latest NAM total precip projections.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

humdandy said:


> Unless things change, Bulloch Co has had almost no rain at all in the past 24 hours.  They were calling for rain all day today and now it is down to 20%.
> 
> It was cool, windy and low humidity this morning.  I don't see how we are going to get all this rain they are talking about.  Is there something I am missing?



Check back with me Monday and let me know how much you got.


----------



## humdandy (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> Check back with me Monday and let me know how much you got.



We need it!  Been pretty dry around here and I planted plots last weekend.

Will do.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

humdandy said:


> We need it!  Been pretty dry around here and I planted plots last weekend.
> 
> Will do.



If you're plots are in low lying areas you might not be so excited about what he's forecasting.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

No offense Miggy but the NAM SUCKS!  It is bringing the Hurricane into Savannah... it cannot be trusted.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> No offense Miggy but the NAM SUCKS!  It is bringing the Hurricane into Savannah... it cannot be trusted.



You need to look at the latest runs.  Inside 2 days we know the GFS is as useless as a screen door on a submarine.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You need to look at the latest runs.  Inside 2 days we know the GFS is as useless as a screen door on a submarine.



hasn't the Euro has been the most accurate as of late? what say he?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

MariettaDawg said:


> hasn't the Euro has been the most accurate as of late? what say he?



I don't monitor the EURO. Buy american is my motto. 

You'll have to ask that heathern dawg fan about the Euro.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't monitor the EURO. Buy american is my motto.
> 
> You'll have to ask that heathern dawg fan about the Euro.



Allegiance over accuracy.  Sounds like most politicos I know.


----------



## Keebs (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't monitor the EURO. Buy american is my motto.
> 
> You'll have to ask that heathern dawg fan about the Euro.





MariettaDawg said:


> Allegiance over accuracy.  Sounds like most politicos I know.


Weather people, WEATHER, not politics!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Keebs said:


> Weather people, WEATHER, not politics!



It's not politics, it's good ol' fashion football rivalry...


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Oct 2, 2015)

> It's not politics, it's good ol' fashion football rivalry...


 
Very True Miguel.  Nothing wrong with a good rivalry between friends.   

Also thanks for you and DDD for updating us with all of the severe and winter weather updates.  You two are amazing and what you do.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

What have I missed?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> What have I missed?



Brunch with cocktails.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

Just passed Talladega speedway ... 64 degrees over here in God's kuntry!


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Brunch with cocktails.



Dang it!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Just passed Talladega speedway ... 64 degrees over here in God's kuntry!



What you doin headin to my home turf wifout givin me a ride?


----------



## Keebs (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not politics, it's good ol' fashion football rivalry...


whateva......... 


blood on the ground said:


> Dang it!!


 no worries, I saved one or a few for you!


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 2, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> here is hoping for less humidity and a freeze warning soon!
> Nic should even give a amen to that one!



Here's to some single digit temperatures.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Best graphic I've seen yet with the extra-tropical low forming off of SC (most folks are confusing that with Jackie) and then Jackie taking off across the Atlantic. 

Although the NWS WPC isn't agreeing with this, it is the most logical scenario at present.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What you doin headin to my home turf wifout givin me a ride?



Picking up a wood burning stove from my uncle... 

Dear sweet Keebs.. so thoughtful!

Nic = speedy responder!


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 2, 2015)

Jump off these tar gravel roads oover here and it's like stepping back 20 or more years!


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 2, 2015)

Thanks for the update Miggy


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Oct 2, 2015)

I was looking at the radar. It appears that a lot the moisture is moving up the east coast.  Does that mean we will not get as much rain as predicted earlier?


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

MariettaDawg said:


> hasn't the Euro has been the most accurate as of late? what say he?



So I decided to put together 4 of the main models looked at for total accumulation of rainfall.  The 12Z runs have backed off a little from the 6Z runs.  It doesn't mean it's right or wrong.  

Much like Robert West said over at WxSouth.com - some places are over done and some are underdone.  Models like this cannot predict EXACTLY where 6.7" is going to fall.  It's nothing more than a graphic to give you an idea of what is ahead.

First is Euro
Second is GFS
Third is the mexican's beloved NAM
Fourth is the NDFD that has gained much respect on being most accurate in past rain events.

They are all very different.  Use Savannah and Athens as "Case in point" and you can see the vast differences.  It will be interesting when it's all said and done as to which one did the best.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Oct 2, 2015)

Nice maps DDD. I hope the NAM is right. Thats ALOT of water for IMBY!!


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

If you are wondering "Where will this rain come from?  The radar looks empty?"

The RAP model is good short range model that has a simulated radar feature and is very well trusted.  This is 4 shots, 2 hours each shot.  You can see it starts out of South Carolina.

The rain is moving out of South Carolina dead West, maybe NW.  A huge push of moisture comes off the SC coast and grows as she comes NW headed towards Clemson / Athens area.


----------



## 91xjgawes (Oct 2, 2015)

deerhuntingdawg said:


> Nice maps DDD. I hope the NAM is right. Thats ALOT of water for IMBY!!



Quit whining.


----------



## Matthew6 (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What you doin headin to my home turf wifout givin me a ride?



explains alot.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

Here is the story from the NWS and it explains this pretty well:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

DID NOT MAKE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I DID RAISE
POPS JUST A BIT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE AS MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAIN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE AL/FL BORDER AND IS
EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
THIS UPPER LOW IS SPINNING THE MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP MAINLY OVER SC
WITH A DIRECT CONNECTION TO HURRICANE JOAQUIN.

THIS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO SC BUT THIS PLUME DOES CREEP INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GA AS WELL. PWS GET ABOVE 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THAT AREA
BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AND STAY ABOVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

*STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS ARE SHOWING AN ESTIMATED 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FROM NOW TO MONDAY MORNING*. WE HAVE
CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BUT WITH THE
WAY THINGS ARE PROGRESSING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY.

*THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS
PLUME SETS UP TONIGHT. IF I`S EAST OF WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY
THINKING...THEN EASTERN GA WILL NOT SEE MUCH. IF ITS SETS UP JUST 50
MILES WEST OF WHERE WE ARE THINKING...EASTERN GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
ATL AREA WILL HAVE MORE TO DEAL WITH THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY THINKING.*
WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS VERY CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING AS WE START TO
SEE HOW THINGS ARE PROGRESSING. ONE OF THE GOOD THINGS WITH THIS IS
WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM SO
KEEPING THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 00Z SAT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR LOW AND 60S FOR HIGHS.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> If you are wondering "Where will this rain come from?  The radar looks empty?"
> 
> The RAP model is good short range model that has a simulated radar feature and is very well trusted.  This is 4 shots, 2 hours each shot.  You can see it starts out of South Carolina.
> 
> The rain is moving out of South Carolina dead West, maybe NW.  A huge push of moisture comes off the SC coast and grows as she comes NW headed towards Clemson / Athens area.



Well I'll be in Athens. I don't mind some rain, but monsoon rains are a bit different.  I don't have great confidence in the models but what the heck do I know? 

Thanks for all your efforts to edjumacate us.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Oct 2, 2015)

91xjgawes said:


> Quit whining.


----------



## 91xjgawes (Oct 2, 2015)

deerhuntingdawg said:


>



I couldn't resist


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

91xjgawes said:


> I couldn't resist



Sure you could.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 2, 2015)

Just a mist in the csra


----------



## 91xjgawes (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sure you could.



Nope

Glenn and I are good buddys, just pulling his chain.


----------



## 91xjgawes (Oct 2, 2015)

Migmack said:


> Just a mist in the csra



We got a pretty heavy mist.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

Notice a trend between the first NAM precip accumulation gif I posted and this one? 

Be patient young grasshoppers, this might be a salvageable weekend for the State of Jawja yet if this trend keeps up. Nevermind that DDD fella, he's drankin that NWS koolaide.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Notice a trend between the first NAM precip accumulation gif I posted and this one?
> 
> Be patient young grasshoppers, this might be a salvageable weekend for the State of Jawja yet if this trend keeps up. Nevermind that DDD fella, he's drankin that NWS koolaide.



Mexican you already started drinking???  Your map shows the east side of the state getting hit.  The west side not.   I think that's what I said didn't I?


----------



## Robbie101 (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Notice a trend between the first NAM precip accumulation gif I posted and this one?
> 
> Be patient young grasshoppers, this might be a salvageable weekend for the State of Jawja yet if this trend keeps up. Nevermind that DDD fella, he's drankin that NWS koolaide.




I wish it would go east and stay east!!!


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

HRRR simulated radar.  8, 10, 12 and 14 hours out from now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> HRRR simulated radar.  8, 10, 12 and 14 hours out from now.



Get that cheap junk to animate for these boys.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Get that cheap junk to animate for these boys.



You are much more animated than me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> You are much more animated than me.


----------



## PappyHoel (Oct 2, 2015)

Is this what climate change looks like? Is so the government can fix this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

If there's one thing Hurricane's hate it is dry air. I talked about it some in the past couple of days. Well here's a beautiful water vapor satmap, the dry air is that awesome Crimson color. ROLL TIDE.

Jackie nor the Nor'Easter are gonna like this much over the next couple of days. NWS forecast is in for a bust. 

DDD's gonna buck me all the way on this, but time is the purveyor of truth in weather.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Oct 2, 2015)

Oh dang! Florida needs to get ready if you've ever played ping pong.


----------



## PappyHoel (Oct 2, 2015)

Messican what's behind this storm?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 2, 2015)

PappyHoel said:


> Messican what's behind this storm?



A break, for a couple of days.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Oct 2, 2015)

I'm getting Deja Vu

My last post, don't you go no where.


----------



## GIII (Oct 2, 2015)

Getting very windy in north Hart co!


----------



## Lukikus2 (Oct 2, 2015)

Okay I lied lol

A hurricane staying stationary for up to 36 hrs. Have ya'll ever seen that?


----------



## PappyHoel (Oct 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A break, for a couple of days.



I'm watching that disturbance out in the mid Atlantic.  If it forms it may ruin my vacation plans.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

So the RAP model is just pounding South Carolina up through 18 hours.  (Which is how far it goes out)  Since it is this close game time, I quit looking at the traditional models.  It's time to watch radar, short range models like the HRRR and the RAP.

It's amazing to me how this system is following right up the South Carolina / Georgia line.  Litterally 50 miles will be the difference between 7" of rain and nothing and people just can't understand that.

Marshall Shepherd out of UGA and host Weather Geeks on TWC is calling this plume coming off of Joaquin an "atmospheric river".  It is going to pile drive South Carolina and the Savannah river basin up to the foothills of South Carolina and Georgia.  

I call your attention to how there is nothing in parts of Georgia and just pouring over the line.  For hours.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Oct 2, 2015)

Keep it just east of Athens!  I won't complain even though I cancelled a tailgate for 20-30 people.  

Meanwhile I don't see how they play the game tomorrow night in Clemson.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

If you watch the news later tomorrow you are going to see roads, bridges and such washing out and cars floating away over in South Carolina.  If this thing brings that "river" of moisture back West parts of East GA will have issues as well.  From Lake Hartwell areas all the way down that Savannah river basin.


----------



## ClemsonRangers (Oct 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> If you watch the news later tomorrow you are going to see roads, bridges and such washing out and cars floating away over in South Carolina.  If this thing brings that "river" of moisture back West parts of East GA will have issues as well.  From Lake Hartwell areas all the way down that Savannah river basin.


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

Yikes.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Oct 2, 2015)

Chief's werkin the Clemson game tomorrow . . .


----------



## DDD (Oct 2, 2015)

pretty cool...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

It's much more impressive in Crimson than it is that ugly orange. You a closet Clemson or Tennessee fan?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Where is that dadgum NC Hillbilly? If he'd get on back home all of this rain nonsense would stop pronto quicko. It's all that boys fault I tell ya.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Oct 3, 2015)

Them Dawgs aren't scared of a little rain.  

Light drizzle in Athens currently.  

I have an extra ticket miggy.  Drive on over.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Them Dawgs aren't scared of a little rain.
> 
> Light drizzle in Athens currently.
> 
> I have an extra ticket miggy.  Drive on over.



I've got an invite from a customer of a monster outdoor pavilion I did a couple of years ago. Complete with outdoor kitchen, stone fireplace and 60" screen with surround sound..........oh and homemade chilli and plenty of beverages. Warm dry and yummy. 

I appreciate the invite, but I'm gonna be spending it here:


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

I'm right in the middle of it gonna be going to get my football food and beer soon. Prob wont be going to work Monday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> I'm right in the middle of it gonna be going to get my football food and beer soon. Prob wont be going to work Monday.



Don't forget your floaties.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Oct 3, 2015)

That's not a bad plan!  Nice pavilion!


----------



## DDD (Oct 3, 2015)

Folks in Columbia are about to be in a world of mess. The train cometh. Sorta like what we got here some years back except worse. Except for extreme east GA I think most of GA dodged a bullet that South Carolina will not.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

DDD said:


> Folks in Columbia are about to be in a world of mess. The train cometh. Sorta like what we got here some years back except worse. Except for extreme east GA I think most of GA dodged a bullet that South Carolina will not.



Had they not attacked and taken down the Rebel flag God would not be doing this to them.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

If / when this dry air punches through the moisture this event is done for and things will change for the better pretty quick. The models aren't handling this too well, but notice how the gap between dry air masses is closing and on this latest satellite image is making good inroads on the moisture as Jackie pulls away to the ENE. I'll include all three Sat Img shots here, beginning with this latest image down to the oldest.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

Good keep it to the East of Savannah River.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> Good keep it to the East of Savannah River.



Can't promise that, cause when the moisture feed gets cut off this upper level low that's suckin all of this moisture up is gonna spin like a top on out of here, wrapping the moisture around and through the state.........most likely. 

Sort of like a mad redhead stormin out of a room when she doesn't get her way.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

My xwife strikes again mad redhead makes a man want to crawl under a rock


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> My xwife strikes again mad redhead makes a man want to crawl under a rock


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

I just saw NCHillbilly posting in another thread. That means he's back!!! Won't be long now.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

Miggy showing off


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> Miggy showing off


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 3, 2015)

Charleston to Columbia is getting hammered. Im not talking about with likker either.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> Charleston to Columbia is getting hammered. Im not talking about with likker either.



I done splained that one. It's cause they took the Rebel flag down and God ain't none too happy about it.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 3, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I done splained that one. It's cause they took the Rebel flag down and God ain't none too happy about it.



I know that. Trying to wash the Yankee's out to sea.


----------



## DDD (Oct 3, 2015)

Don't look now, but the RAP is bringing that plume of rain to a doorstep near you.  It will start to lean across the state line about 4PM and it is weaker.  Then it gains back strength and starts to dump it out.  Should be good sleeping weather tonight on the East / NE Side of the state.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

I warned y'all, but you didn't listen. I would just once like to go on a vacation where by the end of the week, the Weather Channel didn't have a dude there where I am broadcasting live about the "historic _______." The Messican and DDD's meterological knowledge don't hold a candle to my proven ability to attract "100-year" weather phenomenon, year after year after year, simply by taking a week off work and going somewhere. If me and RHBama3 ever go on a fishing trip together, it will produce an extinction-level event, and all life on earth larger than bacteria will cease to exist. 

That is all.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> I warned y'all, but you didn't listen. I would just once like to go on a vacation where by the end of the week, the Weather Channel didn't have a dude there where I am broadcasting live about the "historic _______." The Messican and DDD's meterological knoiwledge don't hold a candle to my proven ability to attract "100-year" weather phenomenon, year after year after year, simply by taking a week off work and going somewhere. If me and RHBama3 ever go on a fishing trip together, it will produce an extinction-level event.
> 
> That is all.



Just give me fair warning before you head down to the Clark's hill area.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> Just give me fair warning before you head down to the Clark's hill area.



'bout next Thursday. If the road is still there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> I warned y'all, but you didn't listen. I would just once like to go on a vacation where by the end of the week, the Weather Channel didn't have a dude there where I am broadcasting live about the "historic _______." The Messican and DDD's meterological knowledge don't hold a candle to my proven ability to attract "100-year" weather phenomenon, year after year after year, simply by taking a week off work and going somewhere. If me and RHBama3 ever go on a fishing trip together, it will produce an extinction-level event, and all life on earth larger than bacteria will cease to exist.
> 
> That is all.



I believed  you. I practice Murphy's Law. 

OH, and the first of next June, stay as far away from Florduh and the Eastern Bahamas as you can please.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> 'bout next Thursday. If the road is still there.



I'll be safe I'll be headed to Emanuel Co.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 3, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I believed  you. I practice Murphy's Law.
> 
> OH, and the first of next June, stay as far away from Florduh and the Eastern Bahamas as you can please.



That's why we panned the Bahamas' for last week of Feb.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 3, 2015)

Beautiful calm, crisp morning here! Bright sunshine with some patches of frost! What's up in yalls naybahoodz?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

Let's see, in the last five years or so, I have managed to caused the manifestation of:

One landfalling tropical storm in June (only named storm to hit the US that year)

One landfalling hurricane in July (also the only named storm to hit the US that year)

Two seperate tornado outbreaks in TN and SC

"Unprecedented" flooding in central Tennessee that caused 29 deaths in the county I was tent camping in, and washed away the Grand Ol' Opry and shut down all the major interstates and caused the highway patrol to evacute the county (they left themselves.)

The remnants of a hurricane to stall out for a week over eastern NC in mid-November (!) with continous wind-driven torrential rain from Monday morning to Friday afternoon, flooding the entire county

A massive outbreak of crippling severe storms in north-central NC and south-central VA including an EF3 tornado, centered on a campground on Lake Gaston during a holiday weekend that left several counties without electricity for several days

A "historic" rain event for the whole state of SC that the weathermen "have never seen anything like this in my 25 years of meteorology"

And that's just off the top of my head. 

But, I have gotten good at driving in bad weather.

Anybody wanna go camping?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Beautiful calm, crisp morning here! Bright sunshine with some patches of frost! What's up in yalls naybahoodz?



Watching the dry air sat maps intently. Just a few more runs and we'll have sun for the game here. 

FINGERS CROSSED


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Jackies pullin on out to sea, just like the maps I shared showed he would, and the dry air is about to connect essentially starving this ULL for moisture to draw from. 

OH HAPPY DAYS 

ROLL TIDE


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

DDD said:


> Don't look now, but the RAP is bringing that plume of rain to a doorstep near you.  It will start to lean across the state line about 4PM and it is weaker.  Then it gains back strength and starts to dump it out.  Should be good sleeping weather tonight on the East / NE Side of the state.



Dude, you've GOT to stop listening to RAP. I told you they dropped the C off of the front of it because it ain't real music and it WILL rot your brain.

ROLL TIDE


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Jackies pullin on out to sea, just like the maps I shared showed he would, and the dry air is about to connect essentially starving this ULL for moisture to draw from.
> 
> OH HAPPY DAYS
> 
> ROLL TIDE



Don't forget that I'm back in western NC now. The latest local forecast I watched is now for widespread flooding and landslides, high winds and such throughout the NC mountains all weekend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Don't forget that I'm back in western NC now. The latest local forecast I watched is now for widespread flooding and landslides, high winds and such throughout the NC mountains all weekend.



As long as you keep it up there.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

It gotta come through some of y'all to get to me now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> It gotta come through some of y'all to get to me now.



Well, I've been wrong before, but I've been watching and counting on this dry slot for a couple of days now. We'll just have to wait n see if I'm smarter than your average Bamer.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

I certainly hope you're right, Messican. It's already been raining here all week, we don't need any more.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> I certainly hope you're right, Messican. It's already been raining here all week, we don't need any more.



Well, if I'm not you can ban me. 

Go ahead, I dare you..........


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

Somebody has a new title.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Somebody has a new title.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Somebody has a new title.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


>



What are you laughing at Honey Boo Boo Boy?


----------



## Wycliff (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Somebody has a new title.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Wycliff said:


>



Be careful, If I'm wrong you're gonna have to do the Severe Weather stuff.


----------



## Wycliff (Oct 3, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Be careful, If I'm wrong you're gonna have to do the Severe Weather stuff.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

Looks like its breaking up some.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Migmack said:


> Looks like its breaking up some.



Shhhhhhh..........


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 3, 2015)

Roll tide.... That's weather related right... (Tide)


----------



## 91xjgawes (Oct 3, 2015)

Pouring for 45 min here. Hard rain.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

No rain here in 30907


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

Jaun more green, orange, and red blob headed towards the CSRA.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

Ok, so it rained. Guess I'll have to find a new screen name to sneak back in as. 

ROLL TIDE!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2015)

My house ain't washed away yet, so I may let you slide this time.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 3, 2015)

Mets say we got five inches coming tonight


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 3, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> My house ain't washed away yet, so I may let you slide this time.


I knew you were a big softy. Don't worry. I won't tell anybody.


----------



## DDD (Oct 3, 2015)

Had a lot of doubters about the rain.  Any doubters now?  Obviously it depends on location, but the rain has come from the East which, especially for the intensity is rare.  Can't ever remember a situation like this since I have been following weather.

It's like a cow on a flat rock here in Dacula.


----------



## spydermon (Oct 3, 2015)

None here..heavy foggy type mist is all


----------



## humdandy (Oct 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> Had a lot of doubters about the rain.  Any doubters now?  Obviously it depends on location, but the rain has come from the East which, especially for the intensity is rare.  Can't ever remember a situation like this since I have been following weather.
> 
> It's like a cow on a flat rock here in Dacula.



My farm in screven county got 1.5 in as of last night.  I planted plots all day between a few showers,   Drizzle now, nothing major.  I was a doubter.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

The wind... It is blowing!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> Had a lot of doubters about the rain.  Any doubters now?  Obviously it depends on location, but the rain has come from the East which, especially for the intensity is rare.  Can't ever remember a situation like this since I have been following weather.
> 
> It's like a cow on a flat rock here in Dacula.



I had to let you be right about something!!! 

Roll Tide!!!

The dry air trap door got cut off from the NE which left the spigot open for all of this nastiness. Here's this mornin's water vapor satellite image. Gonna be a few more hours of this mess before it gets out of here. Hopefully NCH's house won't slide down the mountain, but if it does, it was nice know y'all. 





blood on the ground said:


> The wind... It is blowing!



Yeah, and expect some hit and miss power outages from trees blowing over. The extremely saturated ground won't hold em' up like normal and it could get interesting out there.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 4, 2015)

The heavy rain has stayed  east of Augusta but feel bad for my SC friends


----------



## PappyHoel (Oct 4, 2015)

I think it's done here, looks like it will stay a few miles east.  Wind has dried the roads off


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I had to let you be right about something!!!
> 
> Roll Tide!!!
> 
> ...



Just give me blue sky and mid 40s next weekend


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Just give me blue sky and mid 40s next weekend



I can give you blue skies, I can't guarantee the 40's if you're intent on staying in Jawja.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 4, 2015)

I hope my place in SC is still there.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can give you blue skies, I can't guarantee the 40's if you're intent on staying in Jawja.



Crawfordville the next 2 weekends if work will allow


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> I hope my place in SC is still there.


Ummm, that wasn't part of the deal!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ummm, that wasn't part of the deal!



You did say that the seed and fertilizer wasn't gonna wash out of my food plots, didn't you?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> You did say that the seed and fertilizer wasn't gonna wash out of my food plots, didn't you?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 4, 2015)

The heavy rain taken a counter clockwise turn right on top of Clark's Hill


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

Migmack said:


> The heavy rain taken a counter clockwise turn right on top of Clark's Hill



I told you it was gonna spin on outta here like an angry Redhead. What part did  you miss? Angry or Redhead?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I told you it was gonna spin on outta here like an angry Redhead. What part did  you miss? Angry or Redhead?



PTSD kicked in and I drank a 12 pack to forget...


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

It's official!


----------



## shakey gizzard (Oct 4, 2015)

The winds have the acorns dropping by the truckload! Dead branches too! Be careful in da woods!


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

shakey gizzard said:


> The winds have the acorns dropping by the truckload! Dead branches too! Be careful in da woods!



That happened about ten years ago and it turned into a crap season.  The most unpredictable and crazy rut that I have ever experienced.

By the end of the season, there was nothing green below 6 foot.  Not even the privet.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> That happened about ten years ago and it turned into a crap season.  The most unpredictable and crazy rut that I have ever experienced.
> 
> By the end of the season, there was nothing green below 6 foot.  Not even the privet.



Food plots may pay off!


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 4, 2015)

Is it raining?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> It's official!



You sayin we got a new fishin hole?


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You sayin we got a new fishin hole?



Hey, you could be at the beach in a little over an hour....


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

Still raining here... 
Overseeded my lawn 2 wks ago.... Happy,Happy,Happy


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> Hey, you could be at the beach in a little over an hour....



I'd have to let the smell die down first. Charlston, under normal conditions, is the gawd awfullest smellin place I think I've ever visited.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'd have to let the smell die down first. Charlston, under normal conditions, is the gawd awfullest smellin place I think I've ever visited.



That's what we want to hear. Don't need any more yankee's moving in. Disgusting place.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> That's what we want to hear. Don't need any more yankee's moving in. Disgusting place.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

Another load of firewood split and delivered..... I'm so done with firewood !!!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> It's official!



Well, looks like I can be at the beach in 45 minutes now, but I'll have to wear scuba gear to deer hunt on my place near McCormick.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 4, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> Well, looks like I can be at the beach in 45 minutes now, but I'll have to wear scuba gear to deer hunt on my place near McCormick.



Don't forget the spear gun. Are those covered under SC primitive weapons regs for deer?


----------



## Wycliff (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> It's official!



Woooooo I got ocean front property


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

Yall keep SC in your prayers. It's pretty bad and calling for another 6-10 inches tonight. Just got off the phone with dad and his pond/lake now has a current and is flowing over the road. 

Some evacuations but roads are shut down. I am hearing I20 shut down for 40 miles between Columbia and Florence.


----------



## savreds (Oct 4, 2015)

We were in Dorchester county S.C. yesterday and left to come home  right after lunch. Just about all of my wife family live in that county. As of today none of them have reported any problems. however, one of here nieces that lives just north of Columbia just  had a tree fall over on her house causing some proof damage. Other nieces and nephews that were in Dorchester for the annual Indian Field Methodist Campmeeting can't get back home to the Columbia and Clemson areas. 
There's a whole lot of people up that way that need our prayers. It could have just as easily been us. We dodged another one just like with Hugo!


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Oct 4, 2015)

Lot of my friends are in SC and my niece is stuck in her house in Charleston until the water recedes


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

If you have ever lived in the low country, you know that severe river flooding will show up in about 5 days. Can't say that I have ever seen such bad flooding before the rivers had time to rise.

I hear the Waccamaw hasn't had a tide shift in more than 24 hrs.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

Dad said earlier that they were going to break the 500 year flood plain, lady on TWC just said 1000 year plain.  Not even sure how they calculate that....


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 4, 2015)

My heart goes out to those folks. A flood is a hard thing to overcome, and about the filthiest of natural disasters.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 4, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> My heart goes out to those folks. A flood is a hard thing to overcome, and about the filthiest of natural disasters.



The pictures that are being text to me right now and what I am seeing on FB makes my stomach knot up. 

Folks can't leave because of the roads. And you are right and I remember with Hugo, flooding breeds disease. Nasty.


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 4, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> The pictures that are being text to me right now and what I am seeing on FB makes my stomach knot up.
> 
> Folks can't leave because of the roads. And you are right and I remember with Hugo, flooding breeds disease. Nasty.





Too many bad memories for me of the Flood of 94, and all the hurricanes I worked over the years. You can lose a life`s work in less than an hour. Sad....


----------



## DDD (Oct 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> If you watch the news later tomorrow you are going to see roads, bridges and such washing out and cars floating away over in South Carolina.  If this thing brings that "river" of moisture back West parts of East GA will have issues as well.  From Lake Hartwell areas all the way down that Savannah river basin.



What did I say 2 days ago?


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 4, 2015)

Any of you remember the flood of 09 in the Douglas,Cobb,Paulding area?
The house I lived in then was right in the middle of it all. I could see the peak of a neighbors roof top from my front porch. We later measured the water line on his house at 17ft. His house is 1/4 mile from any water.


----------



## DDD (Oct 4, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Any of you remember the flood of 09 in the Douglas,Cobb,Paulding area?
> The house I lived in then was right in the middle of it all. I could see the peak of a neighbors roof top from my front porch. We later measured the water line on his house at 17ft. His house is 1/4 mile from any water.



It flooded my office in Kenesaw.  Building folks had to move all the offices to upper floors for like 4 weeks while they fixed all the mess downstairs.  

The stuff I am seeing on Facebook and Twitter is unreal out of South Carolina


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 5, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Any of you remember the flood of 09 in the Douglas,Cobb,Paulding area?
> The house I lived in then was right in the middle of it all. I could see the peak of a neighbors roof top from my front porch. We later measured the water line on his house at 17ft. His house is 1/4 mile from any water.



I think you're safe from a recurrence of that in your current love shack.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 5, 2015)

Looks like I brought a little blue sky back from the desert with me. We got a lot of rain in Gwinnett, I know that. My pool for my dogs is overflowing, the grass is about a foot high on the hill where I couldn't cut it Tuesday before we left, and our drainage pond is still overflowing.


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Oct 5, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'd have to let the smell die down first. Charlston, under normal conditions, is the gawd awfullest smellin place I think I've ever visited.



I take it you've never been to Bourbon Street. 
And it's OK if you don't wanta visit. More room for me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 5, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Looks like I brought a little blue sky back from the desert with me. We got a lot of rain in Gwinnett, I know that. My pool for my dogs is overflowing, the grass is about a foot high on the hill where I couldn't cut it Tuesday before we left, and our drainage pond is still overflowing.


Yes, and the NWS stated today that we got about 2. something inches here in Walton County, while my rain gauge said 5.75 just before I emptied it. One of them is lying, and only one of them is highly suspect due to their backing of the climate change scam. 


mrs. hornet22 said:


> I take it you've never been to Bourbon Street.
> And it's OK if you don't wanta visit. More room for me.


Yes, been there done that, got the t-shirt. You can have both of them. Apalachicola with it's two story double-wides and ready canal access to the gulf suits me just fine thank you very much.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 5, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, and the NWS stated today that we got about 2. something inches here in Walton County, while my rain gauge said 5.75 just before I emptied it. One of them is lying, and only one of them is highly suspect due to their backing of the climate change scam.



I was watching the radar while I was in Vegas (I was worried about my family in NC losing power) and it greatly depended on where the line of moisture was in relation to the gauge. If it was in the band it picked up a ton, outside though, not so much.


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 5, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, been there done that, got the t-shirt. You can have both of them. Apalachicola with it's two story double-wides and ready canal access to the gulf suits me just fine thank you very much.





The Forgotten Coast is my second home. No crowds, not much progress, and the entire stretch smells good.  Spring Creek to Port St Joe, and all points in between the two.


----------



## smokey30725 (Oct 5, 2015)

So, weather gurus, what's our next big system to get excited about? Thanks for all you guys do to keep us warned and up to date.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 5, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> So, weather gurus, what's our next big system to get excited about? Thanks for all you guys do to keep us warned and up to date.



I'm not guessin no mo'. I get one more wrong and NCHillbilly's gonna banded me. Says so write, rite, right, their, they're, there under my screen name.


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 5, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm not guessin no mo'. I get one more wrong and NCHillbilly's gonna banded me. Says so write, rite, right, their, they're, there under my screen name.




It needs to be changed to WEATHER MAN.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 5, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> It needs to be changed to WEATHER MAN.



That sounds too much like Rain Man, and although I do think K-Mart sucks, I wouldn't want to be viewed as such, even though DDD already half believes it about me.


----------



## smokey30725 (Oct 5, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'm not guessin no mo'. I get one more wrong and NCHillbilly's gonna banded me. Says so write, rite, right, their, they're, there under my screen name.



Hillbilly is delusional due to that high altitude mountain home of his. Not enough oxygen to the brain and stuff..

Guess away, we weather groupies need our next fix.


----------



## Trigabby (Oct 5, 2015)

Ummm.... I saw this today... I think HOTLanta just got really REALLY hot.


----------



## DDD (Oct 6, 2015)

I tell you folks... I am glad that atmospheric river did not set up shop 200 miles East.  South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble over there.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I tell you folks... I am glad that atmospheric river did not set up shop 200 miles East.  South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble over there.



The pics and video's that I am seeing either by text or on FB are devastating!  Heart wrenching!

This blows my mind.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...oodwaters-save-casket-grieving-family-n439056


----------



## elfiii (Oct 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I tell you folks... I am glad that atmospheric river did not set up shop 200 miles East.  South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble over there.



My sister lives about a mile downstream from the dam at Lake Murray. The club house in her SD is still underwater right now. I begged her to get out for a few days. If the dam on Murray gives out....... The spillway has been open for 24 hours straight now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Oct 6, 2015)

Wonder if this event is a harbinger of things to come for the super el nino winter coming up?


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 6, 2015)

elfiii said:


> My sister lives about a mile downstream from the dam at Lake Murray. The club house in her SD is still underwater right now. I begged her to get out for a few days. If the dam on Murray gives out....... The spillway has been open for 24 hours straight now.





For sure. Lake Murray is a lot bigger than Lake Blackshear and Lake Chehaw. That`s a pile of water...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I tell you folks... I am glad that atmospheric river did not set up shop 200 miles East.  South Carolina is in deep, deep trouble over there.



Don't you mean 200 miles west?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 6, 2015)

elfiii said:


> My sister lives about a mile downstream from the dam at Lake Murray. The club house in her SD is still underwater right now. I begged her to get out for a few days. If the dam on Murray gives out....... The spillway has been open for 24 hours straight now.



It's not a good situation over there, and it's going to be days before it starts to settle down.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 6, 2015)

Talked to Dad on the way home tonight, the Pee Dee(little), Waccamaw and Intercoastal are to crest Friday.  

The pictures I saw today of the Intercaostal are higher than I have ever seen in my life.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 6, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> Talked to Dad on the way home tonight, the Pee Dee(little), Waccamaw and Intercoastal are to crest Friday.
> 
> The pictures I saw today of the Intercaostal are higher than I have ever seen in my life.



The Battery in Charlston looks like a big spillway. It's kind of scary lookin over there.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 6, 2015)

I think we proved this in GA as well during last years snow storm.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 6, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> I think we proved this in GA as well during last years snow storm.....



They should send a bill to ol' Nikki when they're done.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

Man, we haven't heard from NCHillbilly in a couple of days. I hope his house didn't slide on down the mountain!

Now, for the next couple of weeks, other than a brief chance of showers on the 11th all is good, until we get to the 20th 

Here's the stationary GFS SLP / Precip model for that timeframe. Another strong low pressure system just off of the SC Coast being chased by a 992 low (hurricane) out of Cuba, which is a crazy idea but after next week I believe we can have an ice storm in July. Check out the series of model maps here. #1 is the 11th, the others are around the 20th.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 7, 2015)

Don't you just love it when the rain holds off until the weekend.....


----------



## PappyHoel (Oct 7, 2015)

I need no weather for the next 7 days.  I will be cruising the Caribbean


----------



## crackerdave (Oct 7, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> I think we proved this in GA as well during last years snow storm.....


----------



## DDD (Oct 7, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man, we haven't heard from NCHillbilly in a couple of days. I hope his house didn't slide on down the mountain!
> 
> Now, for the next couple of weeks, other than a brief chance of showers on the 11th all is good, until we get to the 20th
> 
> Here's the stationary GFS SLP / Precip model for that timeframe. Another strong low pressure system just off of the SC Coast being chased by a 992 low (hurricane) out of Cuba, which is a crazy idea but after next week I believe we can have an ice storm in July. Check out the series of model maps here. #1 is the 11th, the others are around the 20th.




I saw that yesterday and just ignored it.  I am trying to tell myself the GFS is on that crack again.


----------



## DDD (Oct 7, 2015)

For what it is worth, the EURO is showing a system in the Gulf on the 17th.  Really late in the season to be seeing these tropical type systems.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 7, 2015)

DDD said:


> For what it is worth, the EURO is showing a system in the Gulf on the 17th.  Really late in the season to be seeing these tropical type systems.



The season runs until 11/1 if memory serves. They're rare, sure, but not unprecedented. 

From the source I found, we've had at least 14 named storms out of season just since 2000.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

PappyHoel said:


> I need no weather for the next 7 days.  I will be cruising the Caribbean



Enjoy, bring back some hi-test rum...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> The season runs until 11/1 if memory serves. They're rare, sure, but not unprecedented.
> 
> From the source I found, we've had at least 14 named storms out of season just since 2000.



You are correct sir.

November 1st is daylight savings time change. This messes the Tropical systems up and they just don't bother from that point forward.

As you can see, it ain't over til' it's over, and under the right conditions, it's never really over. Deep huh? 






http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 7, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You are correct sir.
> 
> November 1st is daylight savings time change. This messes the Tropical systems up and they just don't bother from that point forward.
> 
> ...



Yep. Almost like tornadoes have been recorded in every state on every day of the year through history, hurricanes have been known to form year round. The season is only based on the highest odds. 

I wonder if that will stick in NC's head for every time he plans a beach vacation....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yep. Almost like tornadoes have been recorded in every state on every day of the year through history, hurricanes have been known to form year round. The season is only based on the highest odds.
> 
> I wonder if that will stick in NC's head for every time he plans a beach vacation....



Personally I'd like to see him go to Oregon for an extended stay. Not sure what his luck is with Earthquakes and Tsunami's though.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 7, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Personally I'd like to see him go to Oregon for an extended stay. Not sure what his luck is with Earthquakes and Tsunami's though.



Send him to visit JJ?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Send him to visit JJ?


JJ's in Colorado on a gentleman's dude ranch. There's another name for it, but I'll get banded for sure if I go there.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 7, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> JJ's in Colorado on a gentleman's dude ranch. There's another name for it, but I'll get banded for sure if I go there.



Something something broken backs...


----------



## spydermon (Oct 7, 2015)

Will it ever cool off any...and stay cool????


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 7, 2015)

spydermon said:


> Will it ever cool off any...and stay cool????



It's quite comfortable up our way. You're in the arm pit of Bama, it never cools off and stays that way.


----------



## spydermon (Oct 7, 2015)

Spending a lot of time in s.e. ga now.  In coffee county area
Intellicast is calling for rain saturday ..sure hope that stays.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 8, 2015)

spydermon said:


> Spending a lot of time in s.e. ga now.  In coffee county area
> Intellicast is calling for rain saturday ..sure hope that stays.



I would call that South Central Ga, but close enough.
As far as rain? Chances of a passing shower Friday from noon to midnight and again in Saturday noon to 6pm, but we're talking less than 7/100th of an inch so I wouldn't be too worried about it. Could be a rumble of thunder as these will be extremely isolated, just keep your ears peeled and don't get caught 30 ft up a tree if lightning is popping in your area


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 9, 2015)

Any change in this, Miguel?


----------



## DDD (Oct 9, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Any change in this, Miguel?



Best chance of rain is in the morning (Saturday morning)  it will be gone by the afternoon.  Sunday looks nice and the temps are going to be chamber of Commerce type stuff come Monday and Tuesday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 9, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Any change in this, Miguel?



Yep, percentages are going up, but I still don't think it'll be a wide spread soaking and will move through with intermittent showers here and there. The air here is just too cool and stable to create too much of a commotion.
Either way, I'm lookin for most of Ga to be clear of rain by noon tomorrow. It will take a little longer before the NE, Eastern border and Savannah to clear out. 

That's what my cross fingers are hoping. I've never been able to get down to Perry for the Ga Nat'l Fair and tomorrow is the first opportunity and we're taking it. If I find out NCHillbilly is there I'm gonna throat punch him and then kill him dead. Don't need no dang bad weather at the fair the one and only time I finally get to go.  

Hey, but If I'm wrong this'll make 4 times, or will it be 5?  Look for NCHillbilly to let me know in no uncertain terms. 

Back to the long range, which isn't as long as it was the other day. The GFS SLP / Precip models still have the tropical disturbance coming out of Cuba but much stronger now. Instead of a 992 low it is now projected at 988, which is just crazy. If it holds this NE path the Bahamas are going to get hammered again, and this time it will be much worse. IF this holds. It could all be a bust. 

Does NCHillbilly have a trip planned to the Bahamas he hasn't told us about??


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 9, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, percentages are going up, but I still don't think it'll be a wide spread soaking and will move through with intermittent showers here and there. The air here is just too cool and stable to create too much of a commotion.
> Either way, I'm lookin for most of Ga to be clear of rain by noon tomorrow. It will take a little longer before the NE, Eastern border and Savannah to clear out.
> 
> That's what my cross fingers are hoping. I've never been able to get down to Perry for the Ga Nat'l Fair and tomorrow is the first opportunity and we're taking it. If I find out NCHillbilly is there I'm gonna throat punch him and then kill him dead. Don't need no dang bad weather at the fair the one and only time I finally get to go.
> ...



That's crazy intense.


----------



## DDD (Oct 9, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, percentages are going up, but I still don't think it'll be a wide spread soaking and will move through with intermittent showers here and there. The air here is just too cool and stable to create too much of a commotion.
> Either way, I'm lookin for most of Ga to be clear of rain by noon tomorrow. It will take a little longer before the NE, Eastern border and Savannah to clear out.
> 
> That's what my cross fingers are hoping. I've never been able to get down to Perry for the Ga Nat'l Fair and tomorrow is the first opportunity and we're taking it. If I find out NCHillbilly is there I'm gonna throat punch him and then kill him dead. Don't need no dang bad weather at the fair the one and only time I finally get to go.
> ...




What's even more crazy is a NASTY hurricane in the Pacific at the exact same time.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 9, 2015)

DDD said:


> What's even more crazy is a NASTY hurricane in the Pacific at the exact same time.



It's Al Gore's fault.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 9, 2015)

Man it be lookin dark an rainy tadeff outside


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 9, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Man it be lookin dark an rainy tadeff outside



Where you at goober? It's sun shiny weather here.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 9, 2015)

no rain in the forecast now.. awesome


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 9, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> no rain in the forecast now.. awesome


Looking at the live radar, there's a solid 8 degree temp drop behind the front as it is rolling through 10UHC and NW Bama...


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 9, 2015)

bring it on


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 10, 2015)

Blue sky in Perry today. Woo hooo!!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 10, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Where you at goober? It's sun shiny weather here.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Blue sky in Perry today. Woo hooo!!!



I'm at my house.. it's been raining here all day!

Enjoy the gnats!


----------



## shakey gizzard (Oct 11, 2015)

A weeks worth of sunshine should be good for the leaf lookin!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 11, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> I'm at my house.. it's been raining here all day!
> 
> Enjoy the gnats!


There weren't no nats, knats, gnats.........just lots of fried everything. 



shakey gizzard said:


> A weeks worth of sunshine should be good for the leaf lookin!


Yep


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 12, 2015)

Live from the Galaxy Note II this morning. 
The 10 day (really 8 due to screenshot) forecast according to weatherbug app.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 12, 2015)

The summer that will never end!! 
I purchased a new wood burning stove yesterday... I'm looking forward to using it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 12, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> The summer that will never end!!
> I purchased a new wood burning stove yesterday... I'm looking forward to using it!



Way to go spoil sport, you just screwed us out of any chance of a winter.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 12, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Way to go spoil sport, you just screwed us out of any chance of a winter.



That's a heavy burden to lay on me brother... I'm winter's #1 fan! I will return it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 12, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> I will return it!


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 12, 2015)

Man what perfect baseball weather. 6 pm game tonight and the weather was absolutly perfect. Please put a hold patern request in.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 12, 2015)

Also, what the heck is a rammer jammer yallerhammer?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 12, 2015)

Calling for low 30s at night here by the weekend.


----------



## Backcountry (Oct 12, 2015)

bring on winter!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 13, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> Also, what the heck is a rammer jammer yallerhammer?



Google is your friend. Well maybe not yours..... 



NCHillbilly said:


> Calling for low 30s at night here by the weekend.





Backcountry said:


> bring on winter!!



Wrong thread mouth breathers.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 13, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Google is your friend. Well maybe not yours.....



For banding sake, I will leave that one alone.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 14, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> For banding sake, I will leave that one alone.....



Speaking of drones, you're missing some good sunrise / sunset opportunities.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 14, 2015)

We need a severe cold snap... For the next 5 months! I mean pipe freezing cold!!!


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 14, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> We need a severe cold snap... For the next 5 months! I mean pipe freezing cold!!!



Oh definitely hush with that kinda talk.


----------



## brunofishing (Oct 14, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> We need a severe cold snap... For the next 5 months! I mean pipe freezing cold!!!



Me to!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Oct 14, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wrong thread mouth breathers.



You started it in #355, Messican.


----------



## Patriot44 (Oct 14, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Speaking of drones, you're missing some good sunrise / sunset opportunities.



Of course you have seen this one already....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 14, 2015)

NCHillbilly said:


> You started it in #355, Messican.



You're still a mouth breather, and I wish JT hadn't gone there with his loin cloth comment.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 14, 2015)

The new dnr rut map is pretty cool. Its interactive. http://www.georgiawildlife.com/rut-map


----------



## spydermon (Oct 15, 2015)

we gonna get any more rain any time soon???  I called yesterday to order some, but was told its on backorder along with the colder weather


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 16, 2015)

spydermon said:


> we gonna get any more rain any time soon???  I called yesterday to order some, but was told its on backorder along with the colder weather



You want cold you need to call DDD. You want rain you need to call me. Now you've just got to wait for what you get because you called the wrong "they". 

Looks like we've got a couple more weeks of this weather thanks to a strong Atlantic High that is parked. Interesting that the tropical system is still showing up on the long range, now the intermediate range around Nov. 1st-ish since it is now showing on the GFS models.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Oct 23, 2015)

Sr. Cervantes, 
What say ye about the big spinny thingy in the Pacific? How much rain will we get next week if any?


----------



## Trigabby (Oct 23, 2015)

What's funny (not) is the biggest spinny thing in the Pacific in recorded history and The Whatever Channel is talking about tornado alleys from 2007.  No wonder they have lost all credibility.


----------



## spydermon (Oct 25, 2015)

Is it ever going to cool down or we taking the 80s all the way to Christmas? ?


----------



## smokey30725 (Oct 25, 2015)

I was wondering the same thing myself. Mowed grass today and sweated and swatted mosquitos all day.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 25, 2015)

cobb county

when will the rain slack enough to bow hunt this week?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 25, 2015)

MariettaDawg said:


> Sr. Cervantes,
> What say ye about the big spinny thingy in the Pacific? How much rain will we get next week if any?


Hard to say, but we will get rain. 


spydermon said:


> Is it ever going to cool down or we taking the 80s all the way to Christmas? ?


Yes


BROWNING7WSM said:


> cobb county
> 
> when will the rain slack enough to bow hunt this week?


Supposedly by Thursday, but we'll see.


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 25, 2015)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 25, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


>



That stuff will make you fat.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Oct 26, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> cobb county
> 
> when will the rain slack enough to bow hunt this week?



Now!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2015)

Looks like the last little bit of this round of weather will be skeedaddlin out of here around 8 or 9 pm tonight.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 28, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like the last little bit of this round of weather will be skeedaddlin out of here around 8 or 9 pm tonight.



A little birdie suggested this morning that Halloween could be enough to drown a frog. Any thoughts on that? 

I love the overcast and cool, but the incessant misty rain can go now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> A little birdie suggested this morning that Halloween could be enough to drown a frog. Any thoughts on that?
> 
> I love the overcast and cool, but the incessant misty rain can go now.



See that stuff blowing up over Texas? It could bring us a little interesting STS weather on Sunday, depending on how rapidly the slight eastern wedge retreats. Could get hopping around here, especially down in SOWEGA.

At least that's what it looks like not. 

But if the new Hempite Moderator bands me before then, y'all are on your own.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 28, 2015)

Anyone got an idea on how long the next rain system is going to hang around.  Vacation starts next Monday.  Hope to be in the woods


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Anyone got an idea on how long the next rain system is going to hang around.  Vacation starts next Monday.  Hope to be in the woods



It'll move through with authority. Monday morning might be breezy but your tough, right?


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 28, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It'll move through with authority. Monday morning might be breezy but your tough, right?



sounds good


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> sounds good



Just remember, it ain't here yet and the timeline could change a tad.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 28, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just remember, it ain't here yet and the timeline could change a tad.



I gotcha ya

As long as it keeps its authority and gets gone instead of lingering, I'm good


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> I gotcha ya
> 
> As long as it keeps its authority and gets gone instead of lingering, I'm good



It will be nothing like the remnants of Patricia and more like a spring thunderstorm system sweeping through.

I just hope it doesn't happen in the middle of the night..


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 29, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> See that stuff blowing up over Texas? It could bring us a little interesting STS weather on Sunday, depending on how rapidly the slight eastern wedge retreats. Could get hopping around here, especially down in SOWEGA.
> 
> At least that's what it looks like not.
> 
> But if the new Hempite Moderator bands me before then, y'all are on your own.





As always thanks for the heads up. I heard about this on the radio this morning and it sounds like we'll get some good rain, but they didn't mention anything severe. 

Thankfully I have a weather radio app on my phone that blares every time a notification is sent for my SAME area, as well as a few other key areas I've chosen (parents and in-laws mainly.)


----------



## DDD (Oct 29, 2015)

It looks very interesting with the heating of the day going into Sunday night.  This will need to be watched closely as we get closer to Sunday.

I am with Miguel that the Southern part of the state needs to be weather aware.  Especially anyone thinking about heading to the woods Sunday afternoon.  I would not plan on it unless its the last day you will get to hunt this year.  

You can see the progression as the heating of the day takes place from the first pic which is around 11AM and the 2nd one is around 5PM and the last one is around midnight.

You will notice SW GA and even SE GA never really get in on the action.  The worst as it's progged right now is south of Atlanta.  More of a Macon to Augusta type set up.


----------



## spydermon (Oct 30, 2015)

^ whats that?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 30, 2015)

spydermon said:


> ^ whats that?



A very wet Sunday for most of GA.


----------



## Head East (Oct 30, 2015)

Holy cow, that's a lot of rain in auguster DDD. Errr.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 30, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> A very wet Sunday for most of GA.



Don't put a lot of stock in those pretty maps. Remember, I said SOWEGA could get in on the action, those maps disagree with me. 

HOW DARE THEY!!! 

Remember I talked about a slight CAD in NEGA? Well it seems on Sunday it is just getting set up and will intensify into the night and Monday. Cold air coming in the back door from the NE will make it really tough for that system to do little more than rain north of I-20, and if the CAD air is really stable it will be tough for much of that to happen in the NE quadrant of the state. 

It's all a timing game. Although NWGA will be susceptible to a little action as this front rolls in, it will quickly shift to a mainly south of I-20 event with the highest LI potential from SOWEGA to Macon and briefly to Milledgeville before settling down to more Coastal proximities. (yeah I took liberties on that word, weather nerds do that). Though the surface based CAPE (SB/CAPE) supports what DDD's maps show, this time of year the (ML/CAPE) Mid level CAPE is what needs to be given more respect in terms of energy aloft in order to generate any good thunderstorms. The MU/CAPE - LPL Height (Most Unstable CAPE - Lifted Parcel Level Heights) (this identifies where the most instability is) supports what the ML / CAPE is projecting for this event. So I'm sticking with what I know vs. what I don't. 

However, that has cost me in the past. 

Weather models, just like computers, are only as accurate as the information you put in, in order to get a good return on the software. 

Cloud cover and day time heating will play a huge factor in intensity in the late afternoon Sunday storms. This one is a wait and see, and a stay tuned type system that's gonna tear through here like a bunch of tumble bugs eager to get to the pasture.


----------



## DDD (Oct 30, 2015)

The "Flooding" word is now coming up for Sunday.


----------



## DDD (Oct 30, 2015)

GFS is advertising a heavy rain event late Sunday into Monday morning.  You might get a Sunday morning hunt in.

The Wedge calms everything down from a severe standpoint but he main energy stays well north of South GA and just DUMPS rain on already rain soaked areas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 30, 2015)

DDD said:


> The "Flooding" word is now coming up for Sunday.



The MFD map (Moisture Flux Divergence) is way ahead of the precipitable water and Total Precip. Accumulation models at this point. Neither of the later seem to have the CAD factored in. The MFD is placing the bulk of the accumulation from a Macon to Augusta area, with Augusta getting the longest term of heavy rainfall. 

Again, we have to see what develops as these college geeks do their; "Oh Yeah!!! We forgot to plug this in!!" Game with the approaching model resolutions.


----------



## Head East (Oct 30, 2015)

Thanks guys, appreciate what you do.   Not the rain, though.


----------



## DDD (Oct 30, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The MFD map (Moisture Flux Divergence) is way ahead of the precipitable water and Total Precip. Accumulation models at this point. Neither of the later seem to have the CAD factored in. The MFD is placing the bulk of the accumulation from a Macon to Augusta area, with Augusta getting the longest term of heavy rainfall.
> 
> Again, we have to see what develops as these college geeks do their; "Oh Yeah!!! We forgot to plug this in!!" Game with the approaching model resolutions.



The NAM is showing a wedge on it's modeling and has this for a precip map.  Very similar to the GFS.


----------



## Nicodemus (Oct 30, 2015)

We got 6/10ths yesterday afternoon. First rain for us in a long spell. My mustard and cabbage appreciates it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Oct 30, 2015)

DDD said:


> The NAM is showing a wedge on it's modeling and has this for a precip map.  Very similar to the GFS.



Pretty much drawing a 3" bullseye on Gwinnett county. Awesome.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 30, 2015)

DDD said:


> The NAM is showing a wedge on it's modeling and has this for a precip map.  Very similar to the GFS.



I understand what is "showing". I've looked at all of the maps this morning. It is clear that some parameters were input on some, while being ignored during the input process of others. 

Look for these maps to change over the next 12 to 18 hours, like I said.


----------



## Matt.M (Oct 30, 2015)

Too bad it won't be 28 degrees this weekend.....


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 30, 2015)

Is it going to be roof sittin weather for me or not?


----------



## blood on the ground (Oct 30, 2015)

Matt.M said:


> Too bad it won't be 28 degrees this weekend.....



Yer in time out sir..... Back to your room!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 30, 2015)

Matt.M said:


> Too bad it won't be 28 degrees this weekend.....


Sure it will, if you're willing to go to Montana.



blood on the ground said:


> Is it going to be roof sittin weather for me or not?


Well, take you a warsh rag and a bar of Octagon up there and make the most of it anyway.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 1, 2015)

It's mighty quiet in here. Did the gurus eat too much candy and pass out?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 1, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> It's mighty quiet in here. Did the gurus eat too much candy and pass out?



No candy. It's just what you said. Quiet.


----------



## spydermon (Nov 1, 2015)

Very brief rain showers and now the sun us shining.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

spydermon said:


> Very brief rain showers and now the sun us shining.



How's that workin out for you this morning?


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How's that workin out for you this morning?



Finally blowed up here!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> Finally blowed up here!



Yeah, there's a few boomers out there this morning too.

And like I said the other day, folks from south of I-20 down to SOWEGA and SCENTGA should keep there eyes and ears peeled. Could be some STS down that way. Especially the further south you go.


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, there's a few boomers out there this morning too.
> 
> And like I said the other day, folks from south of I-20 down to SOWEGA and SCENTGA should keep there eyes and ears peeled. Could be some STS down that way. Especially the further south you go.



Don't worry.....Jag has been warning me every half hour for the past 10 years.  It might snow too!


----------



## DDD (Nov 2, 2015)

Better get used to the Seattle set up.  It's going to rain for what will seem like the next 4 months.  At least.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> Don't worry.....Jag has been warning me every half hour for the past 10 years.  It might snow too!



Lets us know when he predicts snow. He has to be more accurate than DDD on that one.


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lets us know when he predicts snow. He has to be more accurate than DDD on that one.



You noticed at the mere mention of it he came out of nowhere!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> You noticed at the mere mention of it he came out of nowhere!



Like a moth to a flame....


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 2, 2015)

Mucho agua en mi patio trasero, Senor`Miguel!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> Mucho agua en mi patio trasero, Senor`Miguel!



Depends??


----------



## DDD (Nov 2, 2015)

Jeff C. said:


> You noticed at the mere mention of it he came out of nowhere!



I get a text message and email when I am about to be talked about.


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Depends??



Sorry, I prefer waders! 



DDD said:


> I get a text message and email when I am about to be talked about.



Wait, I thought just the messican got those!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

DDD said:


> I get a text message and email when I am about to be talked about.


Gotta keep you in the loop.

Just imagine how much fun the weather would be if BiggSteve were over here.


----------



## Keebs (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gotta keep you in the loop.
> 
> Just imagine how much fun the weather would be if BiggSteve were over here.


Bad Miggie, BAD!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Keebs said:


> Bad Miggie, BAD!



What? You like Foster Brooks?


----------



## Keebs (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What? You like Foster Brooks?


 No, but usually when someone's name is mentioned they *poof* show up!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Keebs said:


> No, but usually when someone's name is mentioned they *poof* show up!



So you're calling him a "Poof"..............got it.


----------



## Keebs (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So you're calling him a "Poof"..............got it.


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 2, 2015)

Tornado on the ground around Colquitt  moving northeast, if you can believe WALB.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> Tornado on the ground around Colquitt  moving northeast, if you can believe WALB.



There is a warning out for that area, but no confirmed report has popped up on the spotter network yet. There was a confirmed tornado with damage in Florida.


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 2, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There is a warning out for that area, but no confirmed report has popped up on the spotter network yet. There was a confirmed tornado with damage in Florida.





Now they saying one in the northern part of Lee.


----------



## DDD (Nov 2, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> Now they saying one in the northern part of Lee.



Warning is for Lee and Terrell Counties.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 2, 2015)

Sure does feel like spring storm season out there.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Nov 2, 2015)

Well, here I sit.. hunting  in the rain.  Go figure


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 2, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Well, here I sit.. hunting  in the rain.  Go figure



Sounds better than what I am doing: sitting in the recliner going through a gall stone flare up and can't get into the dang doctor before Wednesday.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 2, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> Sounds better than what I am doing: sitting in the recliner going through a gall stone flare up and can't get into the dang doctor before Wednesday.



You have my sympathies. 

Get those beagles moving, too, it's way too warm outside right now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 2, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> You have my sympathies.
> 
> Get those beagles moving, too, it's way too warm outside right now.



They are practicing their moves outside as we speak. We lost our oldest a couple weeks back so the other two are working overtime. They are ready for their inside beds as well as their dog house with cedar shavings while outside. This warm weather is awful. I keep expecting the sky to turn green up here as well.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 2, 2015)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Well, here I sit.. hunting  in the rain.  Go figure



Who in tarnation told you to do that?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 3, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> They are practicing their moves outside as we speak. We lost our oldest a couple weeks back so the other two are working overtime. They are ready for their inside beds as well as their dog house with cedar shavings while outside. This warm weather is awful. I keep expecting the sky to turn green up here as well.



I'm sorry for your loss.


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 3, 2015)

man we need some rain!


----------



## RinggoldGa (Nov 4, 2015)

Miquel/DDD - we need muy importante IMBY thoughts.

It going to be wet in Athens on Saturday?  No desire to drive 7 hours round trip to sit in the rain to watch a crappy football team.  We'd then be cooped up in a camper with 4 and 6 year old boys all day and that's never a good thing.  

Doesn't look like staying home and hunting in NW GA is an option either.  Most of the state seems to be forecast for rain Saturday.


----------



## DDD (Nov 4, 2015)

RinggoldGa said:


> Miquel/DDD - we need muy importante IMBY thoughts.
> 
> It going to be wet in Athens on Saturday?  No desire to drive 7 hours round trip to sit in the rain to watch a crappy football team.  We'd then be cooped up in a camper with 4 and 6 year old boys all day and that's never a good thing.
> 
> Doesn't look like staying home and hunting in NW GA is an option either.  Most of the state seems to be forecast for rain Saturday.



So I am watching with interest as well... my daughter wants to kill one that we have on camera and we are hunting close to Athens ourselves.

NW GA and West GA look to get the "heavier amounts".    I am hoping we can get a decent hunt in by noon Saturday.  After that its going to be more wet but not just a down pour.  Maps are showing 1/4" every 6 hours.  That is not a lot.

The precip looks to be light in nature.  It won't be anything like we just experienced.


----------



## DDD (Nov 4, 2015)

Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again so I am flying solo.


----------



## jbird1 (Nov 4, 2015)

Was scheduled to hunt/camp near Athens this weekend also.  I noticed that Sunday went from sunny and clearing back to a wedge style rain.  Phooey


----------



## MariettaDawg (Nov 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again ....



Shift change?


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again so I am flying solo.



Dang his time!


----------



## Wycliff (Nov 4, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again so I am flying solo.




He get deported


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Nov 5, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again so I am flying solo.





Jeff C. said:


> Dang his time!





Wycliff said:


> He get deported



Or the banding was threatened again for his brokenspanlish.


----------



## DDD (Nov 5, 2015)

I will say this...

The border patrol questioned his green card status (again) and he decided to run across the border (again).  

I have him on speed dial and speed text if needed.


----------



## DDD (Nov 5, 2015)

jbird1 said:


> Was scheduled to hunt/camp near Athens this weekend also.  I noticed that Sunday went from sunny and clearing back to a wedge style rain.  Phooey



Yep, the jet stream keeps splitting and setting up this wedge junk.

It's all Tommy Hunter's fault.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Nov 5, 2015)

DDD said:


> So I am watching with interest as well... my daughter wants to kill one that we have on camera and we are hunting close to Athens ourselves.
> 
> NW GA and West GA look to get the "heavier amounts".    I am hoping we can get a decent hunt in by noon Saturday.  After that its going to be more wet but not just a down pour.  Maps are showing 1/4" every 6 hours.  That is not a lot.
> 
> The precip looks to be light in nature.  It won't be anything like we just experienced.



Thanks for the advice. Probably err on deciding to sit at home in front of the fire watching games on TV all day Saturday in NW and try to sneak in a hunt as weather allows.  

Will be looking to join an Athens area hunt club in the next year or two.  

We keep a camper in Bulldog RV park for football season.  My oldest will be 7 next year and the idea of morning hunts/afternoon football games is highly appealing to me.  Let me know if your club ends up with any openings in the future.


----------



## DDD (Nov 5, 2015)

Here is some shots of the simulated radar off the NAM for Saturday.

7AM

10AM

1PM

4PM

It's not gospel but gives you the idea of what will occur.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Nov 5, 2015)

DDD said:


> I will say this...
> 
> The border patrol questioned his green card status (again) and he decided to run across the border (again).
> 
> I have him on speed dial and speed text if needed.



Tell him he has a temporary work visa and he is expected back on the job immediately.


----------



## Patriot44 (Nov 5, 2015)

Dustin Pate said:


> Tell him he has a temporary work visa and he is expected back on the job immediately.



He said that the decline of labor unions has driven labor rates up for his people and he's not sure you guys can afford him....


----------



## DDD (Nov 5, 2015)

Patriot44 said:


> He said that the decline of labor unions has driven labor rates up for his people and he's not sure you guys can afford him....



He told me the same.


----------



## DDD (Nov 5, 2015)

Its going to be really warm tomorrow.  I had thought about taking off and hunting but I think I am going to work and wait until next week.

Sunday the wedge will be in gear by the afternoon.  Drizzling rain and East wind.  It looks to clear by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week and have cooler temps then.


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 5, 2015)

DDD said:


> Its going to be really warm tomorrow.  I had thought about taking off and hunting but I think I am going to work and wait until next week.
> 
> Sunday the wedge will be in gear by the afternoon.  Drizzling rain and East wind.  It looks to clear by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week and have cooler temps then.





Does this apply for down in my part of the country too?


----------



## elfiii (Nov 5, 2015)

DDD said:


> Here is some shots of the simulated radar off the NAM for Saturday.
> 
> 7AM
> 
> ...



And that pretty much makes Saturday a wash out for me.


----------



## DDD (Nov 6, 2015)

I am watching the latest run of the simulated radar come in.  All I can say is if you are anywhere north of Macon I would plan on hunting a stand with a roof on it and have my rain gear on.

Also, it is going to rain Sunday with the wedge in place.

It breaks down Tuesday, Wednesday looks nice and then another rain system moves in Thursday through the weekend.

Like I said about 2 months ago.  You better have invested in some good rain gear for deer season.  You will need it.


----------



## doenightmare (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I am watching the latest run of the simulated radar come in.  All I can say is if you are anywhere north of Macon I would plan on hunting a stand with a roof on it and have my rain gear on.
> 
> Also, it is going to rain Sunday with the wedge in place.
> 
> ...



Perfect.


----------



## elfiii (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, it is going to rain Sunday with the wedge in place.
> 
> It breaks down Tuesday, Wednesday looks nice and then another rain system moves in Thursday through the weekend.
> 
> Like I said about 2 months ago.  You better have invested in some good rain gear for deer season.  You will need it.


----------



## Keebs (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I am watching the latest run of the simulated radar come in.  All I can say is if you are anywhere north of Macon I would plan on hunting a stand with a roof on it and have my rain gear on.
> 
> Also, it is going to rain Sunday with the wedge in place.
> 
> ...


NOT liking this forecast!


----------



## DDD (Nov 6, 2015)

Here is a look at the morning simulated radar.  It's not a total wash, but the morning starts out WET early.

I am waiting on the afternoon panels.

The progression is 5AM, 6AM, 8AM, 10AM, 12PM


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 6, 2015)

I hope it holds off down here so my farmer friends can finish getting their peanuts out of the fields.


----------



## DDD (Nov 6, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> I hope it holds off down here so my farmer friends can finish getting their peanuts out of the fields.



Nic, S GA is spared until Sunday and then it will become wet.  I will post up some S. GA pics shortly.


----------



## Jeff C. (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> I am watching the latest run of the simulated radar come in.  All I can say is if you are anywhere north of Macon I would plan on hunting a stand with a roof on it and have my rain gear on.
> 
> Also, it is going to rain Sunday with the wedge in place.
> 
> ...


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> Nic, S GA is spared until Sunday and then it will become wet.  I will post up some S. GA pics shortly.





Thanks, DDD. Those boys on the plantation in front of my house are wide open as I type this, trying to finish before the next rain hits. The rain last weekend got them right as they got started good.


----------



## DDD (Nov 6, 2015)

Here is the afternoon simulated radar.

Progression is 1PM, 3PM, 5PM and 6PM


----------



## DDD (Nov 6, 2015)

Here you go Nic.  7PM Saturday and 1AM Sunday.


----------



## Keebs (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> Here you go Nic.  7PM Saturday and 1AM Sunday.


I might get some hunting in........... if'n it isn't too hot!


----------



## Nicodemus (Nov 6, 2015)

Many thanks, DDD!


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Nov 6, 2015)

Guess I'll be hunting in the rain Sunday


----------



## Bob Shaw (Nov 6, 2015)

DDD said:


> Also, Miguel has pulled the plug again so I am flying solo.



I hope it's just shutting down for winter. I'm sure I'm not alone in this, but I really appreciate both of you guy's efforts in keeping us up to date on the weather. While the TV weather forecasters do a pretty good job of telling us what's happening now, you two guy's are my first source to find out what's going to happen down the road.

Thanks for all you do.


----------



## jbird1 (Nov 6, 2015)

It's sunny here right now...first time in a week it feels like...awaiting the Sunday simulated radar.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 6, 2015)

Cloudy here in Dalton. Been a very dreary week so far. Ready for cold weather. Enough of this warm stuff.


----------



## elfiii (Nov 6, 2015)

Severe clear in Suwanee right now.


----------



## Bob Shaw (Nov 8, 2015)

Hey, Miguel may have to come out of hibernation, if that thing in the Bahamas forms into something.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Nov 9, 2015)

DDD

Is Miguel okay, on his profile it says Banding in Progress. What did he do to get band?


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Nov 9, 2015)

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD
> 
> Is Miguel okay, on his profile it says Banding in Progress. What did he do to get band?





He's not banned, just taking a break.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Nov 9, 2015)

Okay that make sense.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Nov 9, 2015)

Bob Shaw said:


> Hey, Miguel may have to come out of hibernation, if that thing in the Bahamas forms into something.



Tropical Storm Kate!! Nothing like a good late season storm.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 9, 2015)

Heard on the radio this morning that we've had 7" of rain, on average, in 9 days of November.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 9, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Heard on the radio this morning that we've had 7" of rain, on average, in 9 days of November.



I believe it. Some guy down the road is building a huge boat and I passed animals coming in two by two on the way to work.


----------



## DDD (Nov 9, 2015)

Dustin Pate said:


> Tropical Storm Kate!! Nothing like a good late season storm.



yep.  She is fish though... she will swim out to sea.


----------



## Bob Shaw (Nov 9, 2015)

DDD said:


> yep.  She is fish though... she will swim out to sea.



I hope she swims pretty quick, I've got to head to Florida at the end of the week.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 9, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> I believe it. Some guy down the road is building a huge boat and I passed animals coming in two by two on the way to work.



Aw, I didn't get an invite. Guess'n I'm heathen.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 9, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Aw, I didn't get an invite. Guess'n I'm heathen.



Don't worry. They had signs posted that they needed an animal by-product removal engineer. The pay stinks but you get a window with a view.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 9, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> Don't worry. They had signs posted that they needed an animal by-product removal engineer. The pay stinks but you get a window with a view.



Ehhh, I don't know...


----------



## MariettaDawg (Nov 11, 2015)

Atlanta's chief meteorologist popping off about severe weather next week.  Any better info out there. D3?? Sr. Messican?


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 11, 2015)

I really hope all that falls apart. Not interested in tornados. My son still has panic attacks from the last big storms in 2011.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 12, 2015)

What say you weather gurus?


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 12, 2015)

Hellooooooo?????? Is anyone there???????


----------



## shakey gizzard (Nov 13, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> Hellooooooo?????? Is anyone there???????



I expect 2 inches of leaves in da woods!


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Nov 15, 2015)

Thread is dead

Discovered you can't predict this crap


----------



## DDD (Nov 15, 2015)

Sorry boys... been on the road since Thursday.  Just go back at it...

Let me see what's cooking.  Give me an hour.


----------



## DDD (Nov 15, 2015)

Instability looks highest over Alabama / Mississippi however one or two cells might be severe here.

This would be Wednesday.


----------



## MariettaDawg (Nov 15, 2015)

DDD said:


> Instability looks highest over Alabama / Mississippi however one or two cells might be severe here.
> 
> This would be Wednesday.



Gracias, miseur!


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 15, 2015)

Seen a graph today that shows November checking in at the 3rd highest month for Tornadoes for Alabama and Georgia.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Nov 16, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Seen a graph today that shows November checking in at the 3rd highest month for Tornadoes for Alabama and Georgia.



No spinners or ice!


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 16, 2015)

shakey gizzard said:


> No spinners or ice!



I'm with ya on the spinners... Ice I'm ok with..


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 17, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> I'm with ya on the spinners... Ice I'm ok with..



Hey blood, the Messican says to make sure your lawn chair is lashed down for Wednesday and Thursday. The Wal-Marks don't make them with enough ballast for the wind he's seeing possible.


----------



## DDD (Nov 17, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Hey blood, the Messican says to make sure your lawn chair is lashed down for Wednesday and Thursday. The Wal-Marks don't make them with enough ballast for the wind he's seeing possible.



I think you just said the mexican is blasting air.  Well.. I could have told you that.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 17, 2015)

DDD said:


> I think you just said the mexican is blasting air.  Well.. I could have told you that.



Well, he is, but it's good air. Unless you're blood and you might fly away.


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 18, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Hey blood, the Messican says to make sure your lawn chair is lashed down for Wednesday and Thursday. The Wal-Marks don't make them with enough ballast for the wind he's seeing possible.



Well send my love and gratitude to the messican.... He is always looking out for me! Bring on the wind!!!!


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Nov 18, 2015)

blood on the ground said:


> Well send my love and gratitude to the messican.... He is always looking out for me! Bring on the wind!!!!



Will do. 

Everyone stay safe today and keep an eye on the sky. Everyone opining on it is saying it could get dicey.


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

Could have a few turn severe however I think we are mostly looking at a big rain event.


----------



## smokey30725 (Nov 18, 2015)

Any ideas on when our next severe weather event might take place or are we kind of past that point and just waiting on the snow and cold?


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

smokey30725 said:


> Any ideas on when our next severe weather event might take place or are we kind of past that point and just waiting on the snow and cold?



No more severe weather in sight.

Temps begin to feel more like winter and a good cold shot in here in about 2 weeks if you believe the long term models.

After the rain today we dry out for quite a while.  It will be welcome.  

Weather for Thanksgiving week... all week looks good. 50's for highs, high 30's for lows and DRY.


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

The frog strangler is on the west side moving east.  Some strong returns showing up on radar but nothing severe.


----------



## elfiii (Nov 18, 2015)

DDD said:


> Weather for Thanksgiving week... all week looks good. 50's for highs, high 30's for lows and DRY.



 I'll take it.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Nov 18, 2015)

elfiii said:


> I'll take it.



I have to work.. hope it rains


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

Tornado WARNING for Fulton county


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

If you are near the airport I would take cover.


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

wsb reporting there is confirmation of a tornado touchdown.


----------



## DDD (Nov 18, 2015)

Coweta County line touchdown


----------



## PappyHoel (Nov 18, 2015)

Dang!  It's bad here in Dawsonville.  Heavy Rain but no thunderstorms.  The roads and ditches were starting to flood about 10 min ago when I drove in.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Nov 18, 2015)

I just drove through the worst standing water I've ever driven through.  Ditches overflowing, driveways emptying into the highway, it looked like a creek flowing down the road in several places.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Nov 18, 2015)

Pouring buckets!


----------



## elfiii (Nov 18, 2015)

Thunder and heavy rain in Suwanee.


----------



## Greene728 (Nov 18, 2015)

DDD said:


> Coweta County line touchdown



Yep. Tommy Lee Cook Rd area and moved into Palmetto. 
Damage doesn't sound to severe.


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 18, 2015)

Slept through it all....


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Nov 18, 2015)

barely sprinkled here in N Cobb


----------



## spydermon (Nov 20, 2015)

anything coming next week?  any rain for thanksgiving???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2015)

It's not going to be a cake walk in Ga today. Already watched one with rotation run through Paulding, and there are more with lesser intensity training behind it. 

Keep your ears and eye's peeled, your SAME weather radio on, and your weather apps open or notifications on. 

This is the only post I will make regarding how volatile and sporadic our weather will be today. In fact, I only made this one because I care about you guys. 

Out here.

Stay safe.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Dec 24, 2015)

'Preciate it Miggie !!!


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 24, 2015)

Glad you dropped in.   Info that was/is needed.


----------



## Jeff C. (Dec 24, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not going to be a cake walk in Ga today. Already watched one with rotation run through Paulding, and there are more with lesser intensity training behind it.
> 
> Keep your ears and eye's peeled, your SAME weather radio on, and your weather apps open or notifications on.
> 
> ...



Appreciate it Hugh.....


----------



## PappyHoel (Dec 24, 2015)

Thanks mig.  Woke me up this morning with boomers shaking the house.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 24, 2015)

My power just came back on  it was out for almost 3hrs! It got really bad here for a little while.... Ga power did a great job getting everything back on though!


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 24, 2015)

13 years ago on this day, and at this time.


----------



## DDD (Dec 24, 2015)

One thing I will add, S GA folks you will be under the gun all day!  Please stay weather aware!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Dec 24, 2015)

Blairsville got over 4" last night.  Several fields along Nottely river are underwater and I've only seen that happen a couple other times in 30 years.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 24, 2015)

Major flooding in Carroll County this morning.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 24, 2015)

Dadgum, da mexican stopped in.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 24, 2015)

Getting dark and Windy here about to head to the bunker.... Be safe folks


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 24, 2015)

Fire and hail coming down the trailer is shaking


----------



## smokey30725 (Dec 25, 2015)

Hope everyone is safe. DDD just posted on Twitter that there is a tornado inbound towards Birmingham right now. I really hope this next system coming up Sunday doesn't bring even more of this mess.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 25, 2015)

The driveway is so washed out.... Getting water in the Basement... Things are bad here!!!


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 25, 2015)

Its bad here to Blood and they are calling for even more tonight. Heavy, heavy area of showers and thunderstorms are in bound from Bama. Reports of catastrophic flooding in Alabama.


----------



## 3ringer (Dec 25, 2015)

Jackson Lake is flooding. The river below the dam is cresting in some places. There is a lot more water and trash on the way.


----------



## 3ringer (Dec 25, 2015)

The flood brings more trash


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers (Dec 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not going to be a cake walk in Ga today. Already watched one with rotation run through Paulding, and there are more with lesser intensity training behind it.
> 
> Keep your ears and eye's peeled, your SAME weather radio on, and your weather apps open or notifications on.
> 
> ...



You sure are a sensative little feller.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 25, 2015)

I just went to fill my truck up with gas and wasn't on the road five minutes before I had to pull a jeep out of a ditch. All the pastures around me are flooded and the water just keeps rising.


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## Johnny 71 (Dec 25, 2015)

Yep everything in catoosa flooded too


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## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 25, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's not going to be a cake walk in Ga today. Already watched one with rotation run through Paulding, and there are more with lesser intensity training behind it.
> 
> Keep your ears and eye's peeled, your SAME weather radio on, and your weather apps open or notifications on.
> 
> ...





Migmack said:


> You sure are a sensative little feller.


Looks  like he got his feelings hurt......... Picked up his toys  and went home


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## Nicodemus (Dec 26, 2015)

All that water is headed our way, and there is already some flooding going on here.


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## 3ringer (Dec 26, 2015)

Worse today. A couple more feet and I will have to empty my power equipment from my shed. My water pump mounted on the dock is under water. Others are not so lucky. Their homes are flooded. People are asking why wasn't the lake lowered before the storms arrived.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 26, 2015)

DDD, any idea if tomorrow's storm system will be similar to this past one?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 28, 2015)

Folks in N. GA should make preps for more flooding as this next round moves in. The severe threat in terms of a tornado should be minimal at best. The primary threat is more rain with no place for it to go. 

As Nicodemus stated, folks in S Ga will eventually suffer the results of this N Ga flooding as all gates on all dams will be wide open trying to alleviate the flood levels. 

Stay safe. 

After this round of weather the pattern will begin a two week conversion and DDD will actually have some winter wx to talk about in the WW thread by mid January.


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## nickel back (Dec 28, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Folks in N. GA should make preps for more flooding as this next round moves in. The severe threat in terms of a tornado should be minimal at best. The primary threat is more rain with no place for it to go.
> 
> As Nicodemus stated, folks in S Ga will eventually suffer the results of this N Ga flooding as all gates on all dams will be wide open trying to alleviate the flood levels.
> 
> ...



thanks for stopping by and giving us a heads up


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## blood on the ground (Dec 28, 2015)

I have never prayed for the rain to go away..... But I am today!


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## Nicodemus (Dec 28, 2015)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Folks in N. GA should make preps for more flooding as this next round moves in. The severe threat in terms of a tornado should be minimal at best. The primary threat is more rain with no place for it to go.
> 
> As Nicodemus stated, folks in S Ga will eventually suffer the results of this N Ga flooding as all gates on all dams will be wide open trying to alleviate the flood levels.
> 
> ...





There are a lot of people here in Lee County that have been flooded out by the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee already. Flint is gonna be a rough one too by Wednesday.

Hate it for those folks. Christmas Day was rough for them.


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## smokey30725 (Dec 28, 2015)

Been driving my 4wd truck the last few days. It's more expensive on gas but the ability to pull folks out of ditches has come in handy.


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## BrotherBadger (Dec 29, 2015)

Several inches of snow, sleet and ice fell today. When accompanied by 60+ mph winds, this is what you get. My apartment is less than a block away behind this. Thankfully nobody was hurt.


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## Nitram4891 (Dec 29, 2015)

cray cray


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## blood on the ground (Dec 30, 2015)

Raining so hard on me driving home I was only able to drive about 15 miles per hour in what is normally a 55 mph zone


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## PappyHoel (Dec 30, 2015)

Thunder Boomers moving through Sandy Springs now.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 30, 2015)

Kinchafoonee Creek here in Lee County had dropped a good bit, but is now rising again. Predicted to go back up to the levels it was last Saturday.


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## StriperrHunterr (Dec 30, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> Kinchafoonee Creek here in Lee County had dropped a good bit, but is now rising again. Predicted to go back up to the levels it was last Saturday.



Ya'll, and everyone in flood prone areas, or those travelling, be safe.


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## gobbleinwoods (Dec 30, 2015)

I've gotten 3.5 inches in the gauge during last night and today


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## Nicodemus (Dec 30, 2015)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Ya'll, and everyone in flood prone areas, or those travelling, be safe.





Thank you kindly. We`re on high ground and so is my son`s place, but there`s a pile of folks on the creek that are in a world of hurt and sorrow.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 30, 2015)

Here`s a good look at what folks here are having to deal with.


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## elfiii (Dec 30, 2015)

Nicodemus said:


> Here`s a good look at what folks here are having to deal with.



Looks like the water below the dam is as deep as the water above it. That ain't good.


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## shakey gizzard (Jan 20, 2016)

Bumped for the s Ga and Florida folks! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2016)

Coming on just to make my SOWEGA friends aware that the wx could get a little bumpy tomorrow anywhere from 10am to 2pm-ish. Timing is not set in stone, but between the 2mTheta-E, Low Level Lapse Rate, 3km Helicity and Supercell Convection maps on the NAM it does appear that there will be enough energy with this Low to cause some bumpy weather for you folks. Just keep your eyes and ears peeled.


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## Jeff C. (Jan 21, 2016)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Coming on just to make my SOWEGA friends aware that the wx could get a little bumpy tomorrow anywhere from 10am to 2pm-ish. Timing is not set in stone, but between the 2mTheta-E, Low Level Lapse Rate, 3km Helicity and Supercell Convection maps on the NAM it does appear that there will be enough energy with this Low to cause some bumpy weather for you folks. Just keep your eyes and ears peeled.



Appreciate it Mig, even though I'm not in SGA!


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## Lukikus2 (Jan 21, 2016)

The last two systems that came thru spun off two tornadoes here in Fl. An EF 2 and a EF 3. I hate being in these frontal systems this time of the year. On top of that, the last front that came thru our weather alert station was down for four hours at the peak of the storms. Major facepalm.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2016)

A little reinforcement for what I was saying this morning.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 21, 2016)

Ga EMA has gotten in on the act now. This is one mean storm a-brewin so please pay attention.


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## Fuzzy D Fellers (Jan 21, 2016)

Thanks for the heads up


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## Lukikus2 (Jan 21, 2016)

Current radar pic


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## PappyHoel (Jan 21, 2016)

Dang yall be careful down there.  We're gettin it on both ends.


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## SGADawg (Jan 21, 2016)

Thanks for the heads up! Appreciate the work you, DDD, Malak and others do to keep us informed.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2016)

Wish this thing had a warning buzzer on it. Hope some of you SOWEGA folks see this. The front is moving through much sooner than predicted for your area. Strong storms with good bow echos are about to cross the state line.


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## SGADawg (Jan 22, 2016)

Starting to get some showers and wind picking up near Douglas. At 6:45 radar showed the main line right along I-75.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 22, 2016)

Multiple trees down in Dawson County with crews on site. Trees also down near Mt. Vernon and Dunwoody Club in Dunwoody area. These winds are howling and with the ground soaked it's not going to take much.


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## Jeff C. (Jan 22, 2016)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Multiple trees down in Dawson County with crews on site. Trees also down near Mt. Vernon and Dunwoody Club in Dunwoody area. These winds are howling and with the ground soaked it's not going to take much.



Appreciate it Mig, it was howlin here earlier this morning. Some of these 100 yr old trees had me concerned. Thanks for showing up with warnings. I know if you are here, it's serious.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2016)

Watching some moderated dynamics for around Feb. 3rd-ish. Potential is there for some STS Wx, especially in South Ga around that period with temps as high as they'll be. 

Here's a few maps, just to let you know why I'm watching that date range.


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## tree cutter 08 (Jan 25, 2016)

Do we have any good dry spells in the future? Trying to frame our house but this weather is awful.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2016)

tree cutter 08 said:


> Do we have any good dry spells in the future? Trying to frame our house but this weather is awful.



Nope, nail faster.


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## nickel back (Jan 25, 2016)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, nail faster.





when is this weeks rain going to hit us Miguel....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 25, 2016)

nickel back said:


> when is this weeks rain going to hit us Miguel....



Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be a good time for you to get out with a wash rag and some soap for your monthly scrubbin. That'll be a nice shower.

Next week is what I'm not too sure about on just how strong it'll be. The potential is there and I wouldn't count on waitin till then to clean up and knock the stink off.


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## nickel back (Jan 25, 2016)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be a good time for you to get out with a wash rag and some soap for your monthly scrubbin. That'll be a nice shower.
> 
> Next week is what I'm not too sure about on just how strong it'll be. The potential is there and I wouldn't count on waitin till then to clean up and knock the stink off.



here lately, I have been able to stay pretty clean and fresh. I think I need more soap though


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## Matthew6 (Jan 25, 2016)

nickel back said:


> here lately, I have been able to stay pretty clean and fresh. I think I need more soap though



wash that nasty little bulldog then


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2016)

Everything depends on timing. We say that over and over and over again. It is just the nature of the weather beast 

(you have no idea how hard it is to type in complete word sentences after spending so much time on Twitter cramming it all into 140 characters or less)

Anyway, Wednesday February 3rd seems to be the date the models are stuck on, and for now I'm sticking with the GFS on this event. As soon as the NAM comes in range I'll be double checking with that one. 

What is showing is temps in SE AL & SW GA in the mid 70's, a contrast to the leading edge of the front that will be 20 degrees or more cooler, with good warm moist inflow from the gulf and a sharp cold SE flow from the west. Helicity is nowhere near the Jules per Kiligram (J/Kg) you would see in late May or April, nor is the Lifted Index being sustained close to the actual front. However that does not mean the potential for severe weather in the way of straight line winds or a brief tornado does not exist. The dynamics are good (at least according to the GFS) for this time of year for some bumpy weather on that day. 

Here's a couple of maps so you can look at the pretty colors, and as the date gets closer and I have more ensembles to look at I will nail down if this is really gonna happen or not, and will have a better idea of a timeline also, if it is.

Also to be noted, that even though the lifted index and temp differences won't exist in the Northern sectors of GA. the Helicity is much more favorable in those areas along with Vertical Vorticity. Helicity is showing in the rage of 400 j/kg, which is what you want to see for the possibility of spinny things. It's just that all of the other elements aren't present. Don't let that fool you though. Good dynamics exist in this one from 500mb down to the surface.


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## Jeff C. (Jan 26, 2016)

Appreciate the heads up Mig.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 26, 2016)

If you want to become more edumacated on STS WX then here's a link that may help. 

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/thunderstorms/forecasting/


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## blood on the ground (Jan 26, 2016)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you want to become more edumacated on STS WX then here's a link that may help.
> 
> http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/thunderstorms/forecasting/



That's good stuff brother!


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## StriperrHunterr (Jan 26, 2016)

That's a real strong projected gradient.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2016)

There must be something to this weather model stuff!
NWS is now on board with convective discussion 7 days out. 

You know it's gonna be a bad day when they pick it up and start talking about it almost as soon as I do. 

Anyway, what they are not talking about; Helicity / Dewpoint / Lifted index are rockin Texas, Louisiana & Mississippi a day or two before it gets to us, but no mention of that in their disco yet. 

Dewpoint goes off the charts for us, so it really soups up in Alabama & Ga, prolly prompting them to sit up and start the chatter. As we get closer I'll post more maps and share more discussion, but for now, here's the 7 day convective probability map from NWS.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2016)

For grins and giggles only mind you, this is not the NWS's opinion and only a guess from me based on what I've been seeing on the models for a few days, and the fact that it is getting better, not getting weaker and going away, yet.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2016)

Here it is in their words:  


 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
   MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
   COAST LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...AND RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.  DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS AND
   NCEP MREF THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE CONCERNING THE SPEED OF
   FORWARD PROGRESS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
   MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...AGREEMENT EXISTS CONCERNING SUPPORT
   FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A
   SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
   WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE
   INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
   OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

   GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A 100 KT WESTERLY JET STREAK AT 500 MB
   WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT
   850 MB DEVELOPING BY NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.  DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
   AND OZARK PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
   SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING
   THROUGH THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO 1.25 INCHES/
   AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
   THE QUESTION BY TUESDAY...AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND
   SOUTHEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES 15 PERCENT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

   ..KERR.. 01/27/2016


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## Matt.M (Jan 27, 2016)

MC - appreciate the severe weather heads up.  Hopefully this dissipates before hitting gawja. 

Is it time to make a 2016 severe weather thread?


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## malak05 (Jan 27, 2016)

Welcome to Georgia.... 

1 week chasing winter weather the next week severe weather and then by Feb. 10 we will be back on the chase for Winter weather once again ?

I will say for my neck of the woods in Feb. 21  93' Cedartown, Ga got nailed by a Tornado and then less then a month later the Blizzard so maybe history repeats all though I can do without spin ups...


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2016)

Matt.M said:


> MC - appreciate the severe weather heads up.  Hopefully this dissipates before hitting gawja.
> 
> Is it time to make a 2016 severe weather thread?



Soon Grasshopper, very soon. This evenings GFS run returned much stronger than this mornings. Dissipation before our neck of the woods is a relative term. How many relatives you got?



malak05 said:


> Welcome to Georgia....
> 
> 1 week chasing winter weather the next week severe weather and then by Feb. 10 we will be back on the chase for Winter weather once again ?
> 
> I will say for my neck of the woods in Feb. 21  93' Cedartown, Ga got nailed by a Tornado and then less then a month later the Blizzard so maybe history repeats all though I can do without spin ups...



I certainly wouldn't count it out, but the long range (through late April) outlook is overall a warming trend with differential temps as high as 15°F+ over norm. 

It could very well be an active spinny thing season. We haven't had a good one in quite a while.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 28, 2016)

The NWS doesn't seem to want to elevate or expand the conv. poss. percentage area east any. Currently it covers the ArkLaTex area and MS & AL. Give em a day or two more. They'll see the light. 

Seriously though, the LI numbers in MS & AL on the current GFS is -5, that is a tremendous amount of instability, and for the ArkLaTex area it is -4, still plenty of instability to make spinny things.

But take heart, yesterday they only had it in the Bama area, contrary to my pseudo effected areas map. Like I said, give em time. The values on every run keep getting stronger and stronger. 

It's been many years since we've had a volatile spinny thing season. This just might be our year. 

Maps to follow later on.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 28, 2016)

Mod's you can shut this one down, new thread and maps on the way.


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