# Winter Weather Thread 2015 #4



## DDD

So the moisture is riding straight out of Alabama dead East towards ATL.  The temp is slowly, slowly rising.  Like in 2 hours it went from 30.2 to 30.3 over here in Dacula.  Once the moisture gets here it will drop a little more.

I would say if that moisture that is east of Birmingham makes it to GA it is going to be a real slick mess until noonish when temps are progged to come up above freezing.

Monday is a whole nother story.  The 00Z model of the GFS will be interesting.  It looks wonky to me on the 18Z there is freezing rain and sleet and snow rolling in and then it disapears between hours 66-69.

Last model run showed the typical cold chasing the moisture.  So the 00Z run will be interesting for sure.


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## GA DAWG

What a week its been.


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## shakey gizzard

GA DAWG said:


> What a week its been.



A winters worth of weather in a week!


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## smokey30725

GA DAWG said:


> What a week its been.



What a week it's gonna be!


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## PappyHoel

I've decided to be pessimistic this thread.  Winter is over.


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## DDD

Athens, Alabama just West of Huntsville.


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## Resica

DDD said:


> Athens, Alabama just West of Huntsville.



Oops!


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## nickel back

Well then....


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## Matthew6

I have to be in Canton at 7 am in the morning. I called G DOT said that 575 is currently safe, road treated and no incidents to report.
Anyone been up that way recently?


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## northgeorgiasportsman

Dang.  I've got to leave the comfort of my mountain fortress to drive from Blairsville to Covington tomorrow and we'll be pulling a trailer.  How messy is it gonna be?


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## DDD

Side streets will be bad.

That moisture crossing the state line is moving dead east.  So do the math...


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## Jeff Raines

33.5 degrees in Acworth right now


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## alligood729

Great. I'm leaving charleston in the morning headed back to social circle. Hopefully it will be ok. Thanks for all the time you put in to keep us updated...


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## Crickett

DDD said:


> Side streets will be bad.
> 
> That moisture crossing the state line is moving dead east.  So do the math...



So do I wake my hubby & tell him to cancel his rabbit hunting trip for in the morning or do I just let him sleep & let him walk outside in the morning?!?


Think I'll let him sleep.....he never listens to me anyways


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## jf950y

GA DAWG said:


> What a week its been.



And just think few weeks ago yall were talking about some fat lady Then some man on a horse took her some where we can't find her


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## Casey81

Guess I am not gonna be going to going to Greenville tomorrow.  DDD you think we are still gonna have a 830 game tomorrow?


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## PappyHoel

Winter is over.  I've watched the GF Zulus and CAD formats.  Don't get me started on the RAP tapping in the atmosphere.  If you pay close attention to the runs coming out of the snow reflection animometer you will notice it has Zulu model written all over it. But.... If you look at the Bahamian weather model it's moisture content leads me to believe winter is over.


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## K80

You may want to go back and ensure the flux capacitor was installed correctly on the Bahamian weather model...


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## PappyHoel

K80 said:


> You may want to go back and ensure the flux capacitor was installed correctly on the Bahamian weather model...



I'm waiting on the next run at 2:43pm, if it plays out we may be in for 6 more weeks of winter.  However that's wish casting.


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## gobbleinwoods

PappyHoel said:


> I'm waiting on the next run at 2:43pm, if it plays out we may be in for 6 more weeks of winter.  However that's wish casting.



Are you doing a 3k or 5 k run?


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## toyota4x4h

Warming up and some melting at my house in chatsworth. Dont have much if any ice also.


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## jf950y

K80 said:


> You may want to go back and ensure the flux capacitor was installed correctly on the Bahamian weather model...



 I was thinking the same thing.


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## smokey30725

Still a lot of snow here but starting to melt. Hopefully this is a preview of a bigger snow to come!


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## Jeff C.

Might as well start the Severe Weather thread.


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## Mountainbuck

Is that one storm next wk end still in the fantasy land ?


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## blood on the ground

I'm going to Google maps to find the nearest cliff to jump off of!! This winter has sucked so bad!!!!


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## blood on the ground

Mountainbuck said:


> Is that one storm next wk end still in the fantasy land ?



The way the models have performed this winter anything beyond 3 days a s fantasy!


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## smokey30725

blood on the ground said:


> The way the models have performed this winter anything beyond 3 days a s fantasy!



Trip D is the only one I trust. Local mets are mostly wait till it happens and then say that's what they forecasted all along.


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## NCHillbilly

It's 37 here, feels like summer after this week. Yesterday afternoon was the first time all week that the temp has got above freezing. two mornings down to 0, and single-digit highs one day. The rivers were completely choked with ice floes yesterday, looked like being up north somewhere.


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## Resica

0 degrees overnight. 13 degrees now. Winter Storm Warning for 4-7 inches of snow.


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## NCHillbilly

Keep it up there, Resica, I'm about sick of the yankee weather here this year. we got a couple inches day before yesterday, and they were calling for a couple more inches here today, but I think it's too warm to amount to anything. Snow in the forecast for three days next week, though-just have to wait and see.


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## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> Keep it up there, Resica, I'm about sick of the yankee weather here this year. we got a couple inches day before yesterday, and they were calling for a couple more inches here today, but I think it's too warm to amount to anything. Snow in the forecast for three days next week, though-just have to wait and see.



Spring is just around the corner. Only another month and a half for you. Hang in there.


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## Greene728

To the members who are mocking and steadily posting your silly rhetoric. 
We have already lost one trusted and very good weather forecaster like this, and I don't want to lose the one we have left. I'm no mod, or anything other than a loyal member here, so take this with a grain of salt. But DDD puts a great deal of time and effort into this that he surely doesn't have to. He has already asked before to please stop the senseless and useless post's that people have to wade through to get to the useful stuff. And for anyone thinking im being uptight and need to ease up a little, let me just say it has happened before and can happen again. So with that said, flame away at me. But for Pete's sake don't P the man off and cause him to go strictly to social media like MC did. I for one don't do that junk and will miss him. 
Ok, rant over.


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## JonathanG2013

Great job Greene.


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## elfiii

Jeff C. said:


> Might as well start the Severe Weather thread.



Yep. Winter has been a cold, miserable, total bust. Time for some thunder storms and good ole fashioned lightning.


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## Nicodemus

Greene728 said:


> To the members who are mocking and steadily posting your silly rhetoric.
> We have already lost one trusted and very good weather forecaster like this, and I don't want to lose the one we have left. I'm no mod, or anything other than a loyal member here, so take this with a grain of salt. But DDD puts a great deal of time and effort into this that he surely doesn't have to. He has already asked before to please stop the senseless and useless post's that people have to wade through to get to the useful stuff. And for anyone thinking im being uptight and need to ease up a little, let me just say it has happened before and can happen again. So with that said, flame away at me. But for Pete's sake don't P the man off and cause him to go strictly to social media like MC did. I for one don't do that junk and will miss him.
> Ok, rant over.





I agree. DDD has asked us before to keep this thread free from foolishness. This concept will be enforced.


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## GA DAWG

Its 35 here now   Feels like a heat wave. Thank goodness.


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## Patriot44

elfiii said:


> Yep. Winter has been a cold, miserable, total bust. Time for some thunder storms and good ole fashioned lightning.



And... crappie fishin, thunder chickens huntin and baseball!!


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## deerhuntingdawg

Boy, I hope the 12z GFS doesn't verify or we'll have a NASTY ice storm in CSRA next week!


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## smokey30725

Looking forward to DDD's commentary on the upcoming week.


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## jbird1

deerhuntingdawg said:


> Boy, I hope the 12z GFS doesn't verify or we'll have a NASTY ice storm in CSRA next week!



Say it ain't so...


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## deerhuntingdawg

Starting on the 153 hour forward looked bad. I'll wait for the experts to comment


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

There is a decent hotel and bars right off hwy 21 and I95 if we get an ice storm I'll go there and eat and drink good


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## deerhuntingdawg

One of several several 3 hour increments that look like this. Could be a serious CAD setting up.


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## deerhuntingdawg

The good news is this is a week out so as we've seen over and over this winter...it will probably change. I'm courious what the other models are showing. Again, I'll wait for the experts to answer...


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## jams6169

I don't Post much . Mainly just get on here to read what DDD has to say . But very well said Greene ! If people don't like what the man has to say stay off of here and quit ruining it for everyone that does enjoys reading his post !


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## nickel back

Guess I missed something....


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## DDD

Greene728 said:


> To the members who are mocking and steadily posting your silly rhetoric.
> We have already lost one trusted and very good weather forecaster like this, and I don't want to lose the one we have left. I'm no mod, or anything other than a loyal member here, so take this with a grain of salt. But DDD puts a great deal of time and effort into this that he surely doesn't have to. He has already asked before to please stop the senseless and useless post's that people have to wade through to get to the useful stuff. And for anyone thinking im being uptight and need to ease up a little, let me just say it has happened before and can happen again. So with that said, flame away at me. But for Pete's sake don't P the man off and cause him to go strictly to social media like MC did. I for one don't do that junk and will miss him.
> Ok, rant over.



Thanks Greene!

I will say I do spend a lot of time on it. Probably more than I should, but I love it.  Mother nature can carve out some things that mankind just cannot comprehend or predict.  I like the unknown.

That said, I literally have a block list so I don't have to see certain poster's post on this thread.  Makes it so much easier to read.  

If anyone wants to be mad at someone about the weather blame this guy!  He Lied.


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## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> It's 37 here, feels like summer after this week. Yesterday afternoon was the first time all week that the temp has got above freezing. two mornings down to 0, and single-digit highs one day. The rivers were completely choked with ice floes yesterday, looked like being up north somewhere.



You are up north hillbilly!!!


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## DDD

As for pictures from last night... GREAT PICS from up in the hills... love to see everyone enjoying the snow!!!!


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## stuart smith

I am with Greene.Thanks DDD!!!I really appreciate and enjoy seeing your input on the winter weather.


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## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Thanks Greene!
> 
> I will say I do spend a lot of time on it. Probably more than I should, but I love it.  Mother nature can carve out some things that mankind just cannot comprehend or predict.  I like the unknown.
> 
> That said, I literally have a block list so I don't have to see certain poster's post on this thread.  Makes it so much easier to read.
> 
> If anyone wants to be mad at someone about the weather blame this guy!  He Lied.



Looks like Ole Phil got it right this year


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

Waiting on next weekends forecast


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## DDD

Let's talk about next week... doing a big write up as we speak...


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## DDD

So I will break this into two post:

First, lets talk about Monday / Tuesday.  The setup and model output looks wonky to me, but that doesn't mean it's not right.  What I do think is given model performance for the last 2 events, these time period needs to be watched.  It may not turn into anything, I am just saying, don't be reading tomorrow night and me screaming we have an ice potential 24 hours out, and you be shocked... I am just not sure the GFS is handling it correctly.

In the first picture you see what looks to be ice and sleet moving out of Alabama on the backside of the front headed towards Atlanta.  

In the very next frame... poof!  Gone.  There is a magic "hole" that has the precip broken back in Texas highlighted in Red... Cold air draped across the SE (highlighted in GREEN) and the moisture has pulled a Houdini and disappeared.  It may go down that way... but just given my experience it just doesn't look right.

Something to keep in the back of your mind.  Could just be all rain here but lets see what 24 more hours of model runs bring.


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## DDD

Second piece of the week and it is the "main event" if you will.  The EURO says "What storm?"

The GFS says... we all need generators.  

So let's walk through the GFS.  It is a pure nightmare of a set up for ICE very deep into the south east and not just GA.  SC, NC end up in the act as you will see in the pictures.

So here is the set up... Cold air is deeply in place over the entire south east from the north.  Moisture is huge back over the gulf and riding north.  

So to get everyone's mind around this, this icing event is modeled to last 24 hours.  Solid.  Deep into GA.
The cold is so far south and the moisture is so deep and big, it locks the cold air in at the surface fast and early.  The storm comes together at the worst time.  It's friday evening late.  No sun, temps below freezing, massive rain rides north over the very dense and cold temps.

It's an awful setup.  Last weekend would look like childs play if this was to verify.  IMBY I would be worried.  We are 7 days out... it's going to change a lot.  I would really like to see more of a snow solution or all rain solution.  This solution is massive ICE.  

Let me also be clear... it's not a forecast or prediction from me, it's just a model run.  This one I will be keeping my eye on.  I won't always post this long of a script.  The next long one about this storm, if it's still showing will be Monday.  We will be roughly 5 days out at that point.


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## deerhuntingdawg

Thanks DDD. It scared me too. I hope it goes away on the next model runs. Thanks again for the analysis!!


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## Trigabby

Is all I have to say...


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## snarlinbear

DDD: Thanks for all you do for us!  Your the voice of reason and experience above the cacophony of weather political nonsense.


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## DDD

snarlinbear said:


> DDD: Thanks for all you do for us!  Your the voice of reason and experience above the cacophony of weather political nonsense.



No problem!  Ya'll make it fun!  You guys help me out too... especially with ground truth of what is really hitting the ground... how much ect..

Don't know how many times someone will say, "It's pouring snow here..."  I look and they are said to be in their profile Villa Rica.  So I will go look at what the temp, humidity, dewpoint, ect.. is in that area.  It tells me what is coming down the road.

So it benefits me as well!


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## DRB1313

Thanks for all the eye candy and the commentary on next week DDD.  This is the stuff I enjoy most.  Looking forward to watching this unfold whether it hits or not.


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## alligood729

DRB1313 said:


> Thanks for all the eye candy and the commentary on next week DDD.  This is the stuff I enjoy most.  Looking forward to watching this unfold whether it hits or not.



I'll be watching very closely next weekend. I have a shoot to put on Sunday the 1st......be close.....I would like to see one good snow. I can shoot in the snow. It's setting up on Friday that worries me. Maybe it will be late like DDD says....


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## GA DAWG

I dont like the ice. I wish it was snow chances we had. So I hope it turns out to be all rain. Guess I'll just keep the generators on the porch in case it does happen.


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## deerhuntingdawg

If no snow, I hope it trends MUCH warmer so the crappie will start biting


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## deerhuntingdawg

18z GFS currently running. Not looking good. First two long range shots showing more snow and sleet for north GA.


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## deerhuntingdawg

Here's one photo run


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## smokey30725

Sounds like it wouldn't hurt to be prepared once more this coming week.


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## snarlinbear

Being prepared and with triple redundancies has been my mantra since I was a boy scout 45 years ago.  Keep them fat hounds dancin' ....I want at least one good snow so I can wear my latest fur creations.


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## rolltidega

This coming weekend is the only time I will wish for no snow/ice. My daughter and I are headed to Chattanooga on Friday for the weekend. I sure don't wanna cancel that trip!


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## Resica

25 degrees and raining here.


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## Greene728

deerhuntingdawg said:


> If no snow, I hope it trends MUCH warmer so the crappie will start biting



Agreed!!!


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## deerhuntingdawg

Last two GFS runs say, what storm? Since it was showing massive ice, I'll take it!!! Let's just hope it sticks( no pun intended lol)!!


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## shakey gizzard

I'm tapp'n fer the winter. Time to put new line on the ultralights!


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## 3ringer

shakey gizzard said:


> I'm tapp'n fer the winter. Time to put new line on the ultralights!


Also new line on the Weedeater.


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## DCHunter

Greene728 said:


> To the members who are mocking and steadily posting your silly rhetoric.
> We have already lost one trusted and very good weather forecaster like this, and I don't want to lose the one we have left. I'm no mod, or anything other than a loyal member here, so take this with a grain of salt. But DDD puts a great deal of time and effort into this that he surely doesn't have to. He has already asked before to please stop the senseless and useless post's that people have to wade through to get to the useful stuff. And for anyone thinking im being uptight and need to ease up a little, let me just say it has happened before and can happen again. So with that said, flame away at me. But for Pete's sake don't P the man off and cause him to go strictly to social media like MC did. I for one don't do that junk and will miss him.
> Ok, rant over.


 thank you


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## Steven Farr

I may be in the minority but I hope the winter weather is over. I am tired of the cold. I also want to make some demands and rules for Nicodemus to enforce.  I will publish the list when I finish them haha


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## malak05

Tomorrow still holding potential  for light event... more models to take in on that and Wednesday trends continue improving for solid winter weather.


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## smokey30725

Malak, you and triple D should join forces. You would be the official GON weather duo. Hoping the trends bring us an even better snow event this week. Kids weren't able to do much sledding this last one. More like scooting down the asphalt, lol.


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## DDD

If you read my breakdown from yesterday about how the GFS doesn't look right... The NAM does. It's a good lick of snow for everyone north of I-20 and its 48 hours out. 

Now I'm not saying it's written in stone but it's there.


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## smokey30725

DDD said:


> If you read my breakdown from yesterday about how the GFS doesn't look right... The NAM does. It's a good lick of snow for everyone north of I-20 and its 48 hours out.
> 
> Now I'm not saying it's written in stone but it's there.



Awesome! How far north do the models indicate? I am literally rock-throwing distance from the Chattanooga city limits and it seems like the tail end of Lookout Mountain always causes some wonky weather. We might have 6 inches of snow north and south of us and nothing here.


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## DDD

This picture is interesting in and of itself. Purple and Pink are all winter storm warnings or advisories.


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## mark-7mag

DDD said:


> If you read my breakdown from yesterday about how the GFS doesn't look right... The NAM does. It's a good lick of snow for everyone north of I-20 and its 48 hours out.
> 
> Now I'm not saying it's written in stone but it's there.



Why aren't  the local mets even mentioning the possibility of this?


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## smokey30725

mark-7mag said:


> Why aren't  the local mets even mentioning the possibility of this?



I was thinking the exact same thing.


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## Rockdale Buck

Busy and exciting week ahead hopefully


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## Paymaster

Well I got the crud and can't get out and play but I can sit in my sunroom and tie flies and watch the stuff thru the windows. So,,,,,, Bring it!


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## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> Malak, you and triple D should join forces. You would be the official GON weather duo. Hoping the trends bring us an even better snow event this week. Kids weren't able to do much sledding this last one. More like scooting down the asphalt, lol.


I'm  just glad to throw our some basic updates in my free time to help keep everyone updated while we await on the jedi master.


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## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> If you read my breakdown from yesterday about how the GFS doesn't look right... The NAM does. It's a good lick of snow for everyone north of I-20 and its 48 hours out.
> 
> Now I'm not saying it's written in stone but it's there.



Was curious,  What effects the different outputs in Models when the new runs come in and they change so wildly and when providing your educated guess which weather model do you find you put your most faith in?
 And I appreciate all the time and effort and wisdom you provide by keeping us informed on any and all weather events.....Thank you !!


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## malak05

NAM hinted at big things Wednesday for mst of Georgia/Alabama and then GFS very next run moved some toward the NAM hmmm


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## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> NAM hinted at big things Wednesday for mst of Georgia/Alabama and then GFS very next run moved some toward the NAM hmmm



Come to daddy Mr.Snow!!


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## blood on the ground

All these chances keep popping up we are bound to get hit eventually!


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## WoodsmanEd

smokey30725 said:


> I was thinking the exact same thing.



Sometimes I believe the local media Forecasts weigh in like our government,  they only feed us the information that is comforting up and until they have their hand forced to revel the truth..... Thus why Huntinlady 74 and myself listen and pay attention to any and all DDD forecasts due to time after time he has and continues to be our most reliable source .


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## smokey30725

WoodsmanEd said:


> Sometimes I believe the local media Forecasts weigh in like our government,  they only feed us the information that is comforting up and until they have their hand forced to revel the truth..... Thus why Huntinlady 74 and myself listen and pay attention to any and all DDD forecasts due to time after time he has and continues to be our most reliable source .



I wouldn't doubt it. Paul Barys is the only tv met I put a lot of confidence in, but DDD has certainly proved that he has done his homework on his posts and his degree of reliability is very high. Looking forward to an after church update.


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## GA DAWG

I just heard em say wintry mix on radio. They must be watching this thread


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## GA DAWG

And how much is a good lick? 1" or 2".


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## smokey30725

GA DAWG said:


> I just heard em say wintry mix on radio. They must be watching this thread



Triple D: Ahead of the tv mets since 2005.


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## DDD

mark-7mag said:


> Why aren't  the local mets even mentioning the possibility of this?



Models have just started to turn onto the thinking. They will change their tune by tonight as long as everything holds.


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## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Models have just started to turn onto the thinking. They will change their tune by tonight as long as everything holds.



Cool. Thanks for what you do, triple D. I've learned a ton just from these last two threads. As a snow lover, I keep tuned in here most of the day when an event is possible. I'm also a severe weather watcher too, so I appreciate you doing this stuff year round.


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## Mountainbuck

Excuse my confusion but are they two systems we are looking at for this week early week and late week?


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## Mountainbuck

Ok will be following closely


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## Rockdale Buck

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## smokey30725

Bring the snow!


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## todd03blown

This from DDD on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/gonweatherguy/status/569561570445029376


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## deerhuntingdawg

Thanks for the update^^^


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

I'd like to see some maps


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## Fuzzy D Fellers

Good maps


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## Keebs

lbzdually said:


> Sorry about the last one, wrong size.   I didn't even know there was a thing such as Kalinngrad.


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## DRB1313

DDD,  your two post were about a Mon/Tues and then a Fri time frame. Now there is talk about Weds.  A lot going on.  What are we really looking at?


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## Unicoidawg

All right guys...... enough of the unneeded nonsense. If you wanna do that type thing go start another thread and leave this one to actually discussing weather.


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## malak05

DRB1313 said:


> DDD,  your two post were about a Mon/Tues and then a Fri time frame. Now there is talk about Weds.  A lot going on.  What are we really looking at?



I'm sure he can shed some more late on this but going  into the weekend we had 3 threats for this upcoming week Monday/Tuesday, Wednesday, and a Big one Friday.

It has evolved that Monday/Tuesday stayed bout the same and still there for areas 278 north to get some freezing rain/sleet, the Friday/Saturday threat "at moment" has died down but the Wednesday system looks to took its place with big snow potential... All major models have started speaking same language on Wednesday system.


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## deerhuntingdawg

I'll take snow potential over the ice for Fri/Sat^^
Thanks for the update


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## malak05

Oh man the way this season has went with weather. The Wednesday  system will be the biggest troll to end the season or make up for it all!


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## DDD

Alright... this week is NUTS!!!!!!!

Ok.. there is a weak threat for light icing in NW GA in the morning early.

The more potent threat is for the Monday night / Tuesday.  The NAM insist on a snow threat for N. GA.

The third threat is for the Thursday time frame as well.  EURO and NAM all have it.  The GFS took a step towards these solutions in it's 12Z run.

I'm holding off making a pure "guess" until I see the next run of the GFS.

I think the Monday late night / Tuesday is a pre-cursor to what is coming Thursday.  Thursday would be a big snow for the ATL to Athens to Augusta area.  Classic SE snow storm per the NAM and EURO.


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## DDD

lbzdually said:


> It might be a good idea to start moving the winter weather threads into on-topic then.  I thought the reason it was in Around the Campfire was so that the friendly banter could go on, as long as it was not rude.



When winter weather threats are close, it clogs the thread that people are trying to read.  Try and use some good judgement.


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## smokey30725

What time do the models run tonight? I assume that will be the best guess as to what the morning is going to be like. I have to drive an hour south to dalton so I want to make sure I know what the conditions are going to be like. Thanks again DDD.


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## DRB1313

DDD, A big thanks for laying it out.


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## DDD

lbzdually said:


> Ok, point taken, but if my posts are being deleted then other off-topic posts within this thread should be too.  People are talking about putting string on their weedeaters, tying flies,  and dancing beagles.  I'm talking hundreds of posts within the last thread and none of them got deleted.  Most of my posts have been on-topic to the weather, yet the one time I post something, it gets deleted and I get my hand smacked.



I was more talking about the big map and pictures.

The dancing beagles don't bother me.


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## parisinthe20s

I haven't heard anything about a snow threat on Wednesday or Friday, especially not on my fox5 weather app.  It seems to me the local Mets here in Georgia are clueless and DDD is a genius.


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## deerhuntingdawg

It's been that way for a few years now^


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## GA DAWG

I mean if you were to guess. How much would we be getting? Thur is good with me. Im off then


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## nickel back

Wow.......


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## deerhuntingdawg

I like what the 18z NAM is showing for the 78-81 hours. DDD was dead on with this


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## DDD

The GFS is too warm on the Thursday deal.  EURO and NAM were our friends.

If the NAM is right the Monday night / Tuesday deal would be about 1-2" depending on location north of I-20.  

Temps will not be a problem.  Moisture amounts will be what to watch for Monday night.  That is why the local folks are not honking yet.  Plus the GFS shows 0" of anything Monday so... getting on TV and picking one will be hard.  They are on polar opposites.

What I will say today is the same thing I said in the first page of the write up... given the set up the GFS does not look right, but it may be dead on... I just think it's out to lunch.


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## deerhuntingdawg

DDD, with 24 hours out, is it down to ground truth in your opinion?


----------



## weezzey

DDD, trying not to ask a IMBY question but everything so far these past few weeks has been north of Atlanta and east it seems, does this week look to be more of the same? Thanks for all you do here it is much appreciated.


----------



## DDD

weezzey said:


> DDD, trying not to ask a IMBY question but everything so far these past few weeks has been north of Atlanta and east it seems, does this week look to be more of the same? Thanks for all you do here it is much appreciated.



The NAM is an I-20 runner for Thursday both North and South of I-20  ****Maybe*** as far south as Macon.  However, almost all model runs come North as time runs.

For me, this season, these model runs... it's too early to call amounts IMBY for Thursday.  If the NAM were to verify and you were say... north of Macon... It would be a great snow fall.


----------



## DDD

deerhuntingdawg said:


> DDD, with 24 hours out, is it down to ground truth in your opinion?



I promise you, I am going to be one radar watching fool tomorrow.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Me too!


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> The GFS is too warm on the Thursday deal.  EURO and NAM were our friends.
> 
> If the NAM is right the Monday night / Tuesday deal would be about 1-2" depending on location north of I-20.
> 
> Temps will not be a problem.  Moisture amounts will be what to watch for Monday night.  That is why the local folks are not honking yet.  Plus the GFS shows 0" of anything Monday so... getting on TV and picking one will be hard.  They are on polar opposites.
> 
> What I will say today is the same thing I said in the first page of the write up... given the set up the GFS does not look right, but it may be dead on... I just think it's out to lunch.


 Didn't the 18z continue to trend toward the NAM and Euro by start wrapping up the low


----------



## asdgirl

Well ain't that some CensoredCensoredCensoredCensoredCensoredCensoredCensoredCensored lol. I needed this snowy weather THIS weekend. Have a week long training at the GA Public Safety Training Center. This thing can't make its way that far south -- or anywhere in my travel path. Nooooo!! I want snow but not when I have to drive in it haha!

Thanks DDD for what you do. A friend of mine linked one of your weather threads a few weeks ago and you've captivated me. I'm constantly refreshing in hopes of new updates from you


----------



## smokey30725

Man, I hope the Chattanooga area gets a good shot of snow.


----------



## GA DAWG

Which model hit the closest on last Monday's ice storm? Anybody know.?


----------



## WOODIE13

Here is ours, 1-3" more tonight, single digits.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Which model hit the closest on last Monday's ice storm? Anybody know.?



Being honest, if memory serves the CMC did.  Canadian.


----------



## Resica

WOODIE13 said:


> Here is ours, 1-3" more tonight, single digits.


How'd that forecast work out?


----------



## toyota4x4h

I want some off days at work this week! Come on snow!


----------



## alligood729

DDD said:


> The NAM is an I-20 runner for Thursday both North and South of I-20  ****Maybe*** as far south as Macon.  However, almost all model runs come North as time runs.
> 
> For me, this season, these model runs... it's too early to call amounts IMBY for Thursday.  If the NAM were to verify and you were say... north of Macon... It would be a great snow fall.



I like the sound of that....


----------



## smokey30725

Triple D, is there any particular piece of equipment that you would like to obtain or upgrade to help you analyze and give us our weather forecasts? I know i'd be willing to put some money in the hat and I'm sure the others would do the same. Be our way of giving back for all the time you spend analyzing this stuff for us and answering our questions.


----------



## Trigabby

If the NAM were to verify, as I last saw it, I will be camping down at my place is SW Meriwether... I'd love to see it with 4-5 (or more) inches of snow....   But, chances are, I'll be staying at  home... 

(Fingers crossed)


----------



## BrotherBadger

Overnight lows around -10 tonight, wind chills at -30. Only nice thing about it, is the druggies don't even bother coming out when the nights are this cold. It makes for a nice easy work day. Luckily, we've missed most of the big snow storms this year, so the roads are clear.


----------



## smokey30725

Will there be a final DDD update tonight?


----------



## DDD

30 Hours out and the NAM insist on giving us a good little snow tomorrow night.  Tomorrow night peeps!

This is the simulated radar from the 00Z NAM.  Given the temps this should be all snow.

Will be interesting to see what the talking heads have to say.


----------



## alligood729

DDD said:


> 30 Hours out and the NAM insist on giving us a good little snow tomorrow night.  Tomorrow night peeps!
> 
> This is the simulated radar from the 00Z NAM.  Given the temps this should be all snow.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what the talking heads have to say.



Bring it!


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Will there be a final DDD update tonight?



Waiting on the the 00Z GFS


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Sees the 0z NAM...faints


----------



## smokey30725




----------



## DDD

The NAM is a snow bomb here Wednesday night.


----------



## DDD

Rockdale Buck said:


> Sees the 0z NAM...faints



Same here.

Check please.  Winter makes up for itself in one week.


----------



## smokey30725

Please hit far NW Georgia, please hit far NW Georgia!!!! Dance, beagles, dance!!!!!


----------



## Mountainbuck




----------



## DDD

Here is the NAM... Here it comes Late Wednesday...


----------



## DDD

Then 3 hours later...


----------



## malak05

I-20 crusher for Wednesday anybody  around there gets it good... although plenty to go around for others


----------



## Trigabby

DDD,  what does it take for a model or models to actually verify?  All of them to agree?


----------



## DDD

Early Thursday Morning...


----------



## alligood729

Jeff Hill won't commit to anything.....lol


----------



## DDD

I am not going to lie... looking at the simulated radar... given the cold that will be in place... all according to the NAM... snow rates might be higher... so it could over perform.

Now.. I am not saying this will happen... I'm just saying the NAM has it.  Lets be real... in the last run of the GFS it was close, but it did not perform or show what the NAM is.  

The EURO and the CMC all had an event as well at some level.

This will still change a lot... so patience is needed... don't get lost on one model run.


----------



## smokey30725

Are there any final models to watch tonight? Not sure what times they run, so sorry if this question is redundant.


----------



## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> Are there any final models to watch tonight? Not sure what times they run, so sorry if this question is redundant.



The 00z GFS should be complete a little after 11 the Euro sometime around 1AM


----------



## smokey30725

malak05 said:


> The 00z GFS should be complete a little after 11 the Euro sometime around 1AM



Cool. Thanks!


----------



## DDD

GFS has come on board with the NAM.  The moisture is not as heavy as the NAM shows but you see show is leading the race.

LOL... this is going to be funny... can't wait to see the news at 11PM.

I am going to say that I-20 area will probably have a dusting to 1" come Tuesday morning from somewhere around the north suburbs up to the foothills I would say 1-2" and then mountains give more lift so I would say they stand to get up to 3".

I'm in.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> GFS has come on board with the NAM.  The moisture is not as heavy as the NAM shows but you see show is leading the race.
> 
> LOL... this is going to be funny... can't wait to see the news at 11PM.
> 
> I am going to say that I-20 area will probably have a dusting to 1" come Tuesday morning from somewhere around the north suburbs up to the foothills I would say 1-2" and then mountains give more lift so I would say they stand to get up to 3".
> 
> I'm in.



Channel 3 in Chattanooga is certainly downplaying the possibility.


----------



## Matt.M

Is there two systems? Your talking about Tuesday and then Thursday morning system.  Just wanted clarify.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Smokey i was about to say that lol none of the local channels are saying anything. Highs no less than 40 everyday this week.


----------



## DDD

Matt.M said:


> Is there two systems? Your talking about Tuesday and then Thursday morning system.  Just wanted clarify.



Great question!

Yes.  Good time for me to address this.

1st system.  Tomorrow night.  It is an over running event.  Cold air is in place, moisture comes out of the gulf.  It's either snow or rain.  No ice.

2nd system.  Wednesday Night is an upper level low.  If KM is talking about this system in the morning he will say they are very unpredictable.  He is 100% correct.  They bring their own cold and their own moisture.  This one is more active because of how it pulls energy off the gulf.

It then dumps out over Alabama and GA as modeled by the NAM.  The GFS is not as cold on the 00Z run but it's super close.


----------



## DDD

toyota4x4h said:


> Smokey i was about to say that lol none of the local channels are saying anything. Highs no less than 40 everyday this week.



They have the same data I do.  What has happened is the weekend crews are in there and they don't want any part of predicting a snow.  Also, they have been hugging the GFS which has been warm and dry until the end and then it seems to turn it's head and go... "Oh! that system!"

Unless something changes dramatically its going to be snowing somewhere in GA this time tomorrow night.


----------



## doenightmare

ddd said:


> they have the same data i do.  What has happened is the weekend crews are in there and they don't want any part of predicting a snow.  Also, they have been hugging the gfs which has been warm and dry until the end and then it seems to turn it's head and go... "oh! That system!"
> 
> unless something changes dramatically its going to be snowing somewhere in ga this time tomorrow night.


----------



## shakey gizzard

I 'll jump back on the snow wagon!  However, I am iced out!


----------



## stuart smith

Ready!!!!


----------



## jf950y

What's the temps looking like after the events?


----------



## Priest

I've been waiting so long....


----------



## WoodsmanEd

I like what I see....Looks like I could finally see some snow down my neck of the woods by the end of the week. Here's hoping it holds a steady course.  Appreciate the update DDD.


----------



## DDD

jf950y said:


> What's the temps looking like after the events?



On the NAM:

Temp only comes above freezing for a brief time on Wednesday during the day before the ULL rolls in Wednesday night and then out to 84 hours which is how far out I can see... it's still below freezing.  So it won't be going much of anywhere.


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> On the NAM:
> 
> Temp only comes above freezing for a brief time on Wednesday during the day before the ULL rolls in Wednesday night and then out to 84 hours which is how far out I can see... it's still below freezing.  So it won't be going much of anywhere.


 cool hope everything lines up. Thanks DDD


----------



## dsceviour

So DDD is any accumulation likely across gwinnett county or is it looking like just a dusting? I really hope we can get at least an inch of solid snow from this


----------



## blood on the ground

Bring it on DDD!!!


----------



## 3ringer

I am interested what the weather will be like for camping at the race track this weekend.


----------



## GA DAWG

Raining to beat the band here.@ 37 degrees. So I guess we will see what tonight brings.


----------



## DDD

Winter weather advisory he posted basically for I 20 N. just as I explain last night.


----------



## DDD

The European model lays down 6 inches of snow in my backyard Thursday underneath the upper level low. I will post the European snow map when I get to my office.


----------



## deerslayer357

Sweet!  Hope it doesn't move too far north and leave athens/ Oglethorpe dry!


----------



## Paint Brush

Karen M just put up a new map with snow down as far as I 20  but down playing the amounts .


----------



## DDD

Most of your TV mets hug the GFS... the GFS is the lightest on Precip while the EURO and NAM are heavier.  

In all honesty, radar watching is advised.  This is one of those that could over perform or not perform.  Over perform would be 2" of snow while under perform would be flurries.

The big deal is on Wed / Thurs


----------



## DDD

Quick update.  Not a lot of typing from me.  Just pics.

First Pic is probability of 4"+

Second Pic is for probability of 8" 

Third pic is EURO snow map for Thursday.  Had to pull this off another site, but you get the idea.


----------



## DDD

toyota4x4h said:


> Smokey i was about to say that lol none of the local channels are saying anything. Highs no less than 40 everyday this week.





URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

GAZ022>025-031>035-041>045-231745-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0007.150224T0700Z-150224T1600Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
2 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO
ATLANTA TO LAWRENCEVILLE TO HOMER.

* HAZARD TYPES...A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

* TIMING...2 AM TO 11 AM.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
ROADWAYS AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.


----------



## jcountry

So the event tomorrow shouldn't result in much on the roads around atlanta?

Looks like temps are supposed to climb well above freezing in daytime.


----------



## Lee

If the big one for Thursday plays out, will it be an early a.m. arrival or can you tell that yet?  Supposed to be traveling that day. Going to hate to miss playing in it if it does drop a good one.


----------



## smokey30725

Holy. Cow. Please let us get the snow bomb in NW Georgia. The inch or so on Friday was nice, but powdery. Got kids that wanna sled!!!!!


----------



## nickel back

the trend NW needs to stop for Wednesday, I would like to see some snow 50 miles south of ATL......


----------



## nickel back

smokey30725 said:


> Holy. Cow. Please let us get the snow bomb in NW Georgia. The inch or so on Friday was nice, but powdery. Got kids that wanna sled!!!!!



seams to be looking very good for you smokey


----------



## smokey30725

nickel back said:


> the trend NW needs to stop for Wednesday, I would like to see some snow 50 miles south of ATL......



Let's hope it decides to blanket all of us!


----------



## parisinthe20s

I didn't see Cherokee county in that warning, are we not going to be seeing much?


----------



## DDD

James Spann out of Alabama is sounding the alarm on his blog this morning.  Classic set up, big dog inbound Wednesday night into Thursday.  

I think we may just score.


----------



## toyota4x4h

How is it supposed to snow with highs in the lower/mid 40s all week lol?


----------



## Dustin Pate

Bring it on!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Yeah Nickleback, it would nice for it trend more southward and hit middle GA too. Looks like a North GA event though. If it does hit as the euro has modeled, ya'll notherners have fun!! 
I could drive 30 miles north in my truck and have plenty snow for the youngin to play in.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> James Spann out of Alabama is sounding the alarm on his blog this morning.  Classic set up, big dog inbound Wednesday night into Thursday.
> 
> I think we may just score.


----------



## Brian Groce

toyota4x4h said:


> How is it supposed to snow with highs in the lower/mid 40s all week lol?



Ya'll gotta quite getting your weather from TV!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Brian Groce said:


> Ya'll gotta quite getting your weather from TV!



True actually they have still not mentioned wed except "possible" 2".


----------



## DeltaHalo

Where's them dancin beagles at?


----------



## smokey30725

DeltaHalo said:


> Where's them dancin beagles at?



Resting up for the big one right now!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> Resting up for the big one right now!



Well, get 'em to it. We're within 48 hours.


----------



## malak05

Since we are right at approaching that 48 window for event to start in SE Wednesday. I will post the latest snowfall NAM totals from Wednesday Afternoon thru Thursday 9am... Remember this is a model not a forecast and social media is probably not the best place to be posting this stuff quite yet let it lay on the board....Enjoy


----------



## biggtruxx

*excited*


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Well, get 'em to it. We're within 48 hours.



I'll get a pic of them dancing later tonight. They dance for food as well.


----------



## DDD

The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> I'll get a pic of them dancing later tonight. They dance for food as well.



Please do, we need them to change this over to all snow.


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.



Man, 2 inches on ground and the effect that would have on Wednesday system for cooling and lower surface temps would be huge!


----------



## nickel back

malak05 said:


> Man, 2 inches on ground and the effect that would have on Wednesday system for cooling and lower surface temps would be huge!



^^^this^^^

would be a big deal for yall up that for sure....


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.



Earlier it looked like on the NAM severe NW ga and Chattanooga were just on edge of precip and might get nothing. Has it moved further North/NW as seemingly everything does?


----------



## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> Man, 2 inches on ground and the effect that would have on Wednesday system for cooling and lower surface temps would be huge!



Yes indeed! This would be great news


----------



## malak05

The GFS still coming on good a little warmer on surface but still coming to the NAM solution... Plus the Wednesday system is one of those systems that some points would start as rain and switch over to solid snowfall... If trends continue for today on models I would imagine that FFC/Local Mets will all be pressing the Red Alert buttons by tonight...


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.


----------



## jcountry

DDD said:


> The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.



Does it look like the temps will still warm up into the 40s around Atl to make it all melt fast?


----------



## jcountry

I'm worried about the airport.

It don't take much


----------



## DRB1313

You know things are getting good when there are over a hundred people in this thread...Yeah baby!


----------



## badger

Watching this very closely. Supposed to take my daughter and son-in-law to the airport from Canton on Thursday for their flight to Germany.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Yeah, my wife is suppose to drive to Atlanta Tuesday night for a meeting Wednesday. She's currently in Newnan. I told her she may be leaving early and canceling that meeting.


----------



## Goddard

I am getting super excited!   Thank you Triple D for all you do for us!


----------



## rolltidega

Well Channel 2 just posted to expect snow early Tuesday!  So now that they said Yes to it it will prob fizzle out.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> The system for tonight looks wetter than first thought.  NAM is much juicier for tonight.  Would not surprise me to see 2"+ especially on the NW side of the state and maybe even ATL.



Sweeeet  My son has a 9 a.m. at Children's Hospital on Pill Hill for a torn ACL...gonna be watching some serious radar today/tonight.


----------



## GA DAWG

I guess I'll be driving my old truck to work again tomorrow. Good thing I bought them winter tires


----------



## Lawdog1

Thanks for all of the updates guys !!!!!


----------



## topfuelgirl

Fox 5 Jeff Hill said the "S" word ️ 2:00am to 11:00 am a dusting to one inch for metro ATL


----------



## toyota4x4h

Interested to see how the lunch model runs looked!


----------



## dsceviour

Like DDD said I think the mets are gonna underplay this one and I think more lime 1-2" for the metro Atlanta area with with more in northeast ga and the mountains


----------



## toyota4x4h

Channel 3 Chattanoogas lunch forcast was flurries only up here tonight and 4" on wed night. To your point dsceviour he also said atlanta area would look at 7" of snow or more wed night lol.


----------



## dsceviour

toyota4x4h said:


> Channel 3 Chattanoogas lunch forcast was flurries only up here tonight and 4" on wed night. To your point dsceviour he also said atlanta area would look at 7" of snow or more wed night lol.



That's awesome sure hope that holds true!!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Its interesting the way he talks its completly opposite of whats been goin on this winter..if the system moves north we get more snow up here. Unlike usual when if it moves north we are all rain.


----------



## dsceviour

In my opinion it looks really promising for us in the metro area, only time will tell


----------



## smokey30725

GA DAWG said:


> I guess I'll be driving my old truck to work again tomorrow. Good thing I bought them winter tires



Post a pic of that old truck in the snow! I'll be out in my Z71 as well! Come on snow! Channel 3 is still being a little reserved in their outlook.


----------



## lbzdually

WRCB just updated their predicted snowfall for Wednesday night to 4-6 inches for North Georgia.  Just so happens I have to go out of town Wednesday into Thursday.


----------



## smokey30725

lbzdually said:


> WRCB just updated their predicted snowfall for Wednesday night to 4-6 inches for North Georgia.  Just so happens I have to go out of town Wednesday into Thursday.



Dance, beagles, dance!!!!!!!!


----------



## Paymaster

Man! Wife and I are driving to Pigeon Forge Thursday. Might be tricky!


----------



## Priest

I've been listening to WSB since 06:00 and have noticed KM keeps using the same script over and over with very small adjustments. I'd you weren't really paying attention you wouldn't hear the change.... like he's going to say he called it no matter what happened.  He is still calling for drizzle and light flurries though


----------



## Paint Brush

Priest said:


> I've been listening to WSB since 06:00 and have noticed KM keeps using the same script over and over with very small adjustments. I'd you weren't really paying attention you wouldn't hear the change.... like he's going to say he called it no matter what happened.  He is still calling for drizzle and light flurries though



Perfect example of a fence rider


----------



## MaxG

I appreciate KM on WSB, but he has been scared to call any weather this winter in fear of being wrong. He does a lot of folks, who only get updates on weather via WSB, a disservice by downplaying everything until it is on top of us. I thought he was supposed to forecast weather? Seems he only likes to report it.


----------



## smokey30725

MaxG said:


> I appreciate KM on WSB, but he has been scared to call any weather this winter in fear of being wrong. He does a lot of folks, who only get updates on weather via WSB, a disservice by downplaying everything until it is on top of us. I thought he was supposed to forecast weather? Seems he only likes to report it.



He gets a much higher accuracy rating that way. DDD is the man. He reports what he sees and isn't afraid to tell it like it is.


----------



## nickel back

Paymaster said:


> Man! Wife and I are driving to Pigeon Forge Thursday. Might be tricky!



might.....if this trend keeps up, ATL will be shut down, might be best just stay at the house


----------



## Milkman

The following is my opinion on the TV meteorologists situation.

 I say those TV guys are probably influenced greatly by directives from the station manager.  (aka, the boss)

If they cry wolf and the wolf doesn't show up. Then the station managers are embarrassed and can loose advertiser dollars.  If they don't cry wolf but tell the listener to be on the lookout for a potential, maybe, possible wolf sighting they haven't embarrassed the station manager and he can still face the advertisers with a straight face when asking for $$$$$$$. 

On the other side............The folks running all the models are computer/weather geeks who are not influenced by anyone. They cant and don't want to control what the computer models show. So therefore no embarrassment potential.


----------



## DDD

Griffin northward is looking good for snow tonight.

Amounts look heavier as I said I thought they would start to look.

Would not be surprised to see the Advisory go to warning.  It has to achieve 3" though.  Snow should start around 2-4AM depending on location.


----------



## DDD

Wednesday Night into Thursday?  Look for those warnings to go up tomorrow night.  

That storm right there may knock the fat lady off the stage for sure.


----------



## dsceviour

What are your thoughts on Wednesday night DDD for accumulations? I know its too soon but just a guess what would you say? And do you think the mets will downplay it?


----------



## smokey30725

Woooooo hooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Triple D, you've made my day! Come on NW Georgia! Time to see that white stuff coming down!!!!


----------



## Robbie101

DDD is there anyway of knowing when it may all kick off? We have ball practice tonight. We lost two practices last week due to this nonsense. Just trying to get a heads up as to whether I should start calling parents to cancel tonight's practice.


----------



## bml

DDD, 

At one time over the last few days, if I remember correctly, you were talking about something Friday-Saturday. WXSouth was also discussing it a few days ago. Is there still a decent chance for a winter weather event then??


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Griffin northward is looking good for snow tonight.
> 
> Amounts look heavier as I said I thought they would start to look.
> 
> Would not be surprised to see the Advisory go to warning.  It has to achieve 3" though.  Snow should start around 2-4AM depending on location.



I got my answer . Dumb question.


----------



## Dustin Pate

Robbie101 said:


> DDD is there anyway of knowing when it may all kick off? We have ball practice tonight. We lost two practices last week due to this nonsense. Just trying to get a heads up as to whether I should start calling parents to cancel tonight's practice.



From a post just up..



DDD said:


> Would not be surprised to see the Advisory go to warning.  It has to achieve 3" though.  Snow should start around 2-4AM depending on location.


----------



## todd03blown

Robbie101 said:


> DDD is there anyway of knowing when it may all kick off? We have ball practice tonight. We lost two practices last week due to this nonsense. Just trying to get a heads up as to whether I should start calling parents to cancel tonight's practice.


DDD mentioned above, that precip would start between 2am-4am depending on location. that would mean you all can have practice tonight.


----------



## Patriot44

Robbie101 said:


> DDD is there anyway of knowing when it may all kick off? We have ball practice tonight. We lost two practices last week due to this nonsense. Just trying to get a heads up as to whether I should start calling parents to cancel tonight's practice.



You know how to tell when spring ball starts?


----------



## smokey30725

bml said:


> DDD,
> 
> At one time over the last few days, if I remember correctly, you were talking about something Friday-Saturday. WXSouth was also discussing it a few days ago. Is there still a decent chance for a winter weather event then??



I wondered the same thing. Looks like moisture will be there but the temps may not be.


----------



## Etoncathunter

That seems to sum it up pretty well. They all do it to one degree or another, but I will give Paul Barys with wrcb seems more inclined to go out on a limb with stuff. He is one of the few you can tell is really thinking about what he says and isn't just parroting a canned script. 


On topic for this week I hope this does come as expected. I'd love for my boy to have some snow to play in. Thanks again DDD for keeping us updated.







Milkman said:


> The following is my opinion on the TV meteorologists situation.
> 
> I say those TV guys are probably influenced greatly by directives from the station manager.  (aka, the boss)
> 
> If they cry wolf and the wolf doesn't show up. Then the station managers are embarrassed and can loose advertiser dollars.  If they don't cry wolf but tell the listener to be on the lookout for a potential, maybe, possible wolf sighting they haven't embarrassed the station manager and he can still face the advertisers with a straight face when asking for $$$$$$$.
> 
> On the other side............The folks running all the models are computer/weather geeks who are not influenced by anyone. They cant and don't want to control what the computer models show. So therefore no embarrassment potential.


----------



## DaisyJo

DDD said:


> Wednesday Night into Thursday?  Look for those warnings to go up tomorrow night.
> 
> That storm right there may knock the fat lady off the stage for sure.



DDD you just made my heart go "SQUEEE!!!!!"   Thanks!


----------



## jbird1

57 degrees IMBY!


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> 57 degrees IMBY!



I thought the same thing at lunch but looks like when the sun goes down so do the temps... we shall see.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> I thought the same thing at lunch but looks like when the sun goes down so do the temps... we shall see.



I haven't seen anybody advertising sustained cold (except you, of course) yet but I know it must be coming and that a snow pack will impact overall temps.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I thought the same thing at lunch but looks like when the sun goes down so do the temps... we shall see.



It is projected to be 32 by 8pm in Canton. Sure hope that happens .


----------



## Robbie101

todd03blown said:


> DDD mentioned above, that precip would start between 2am-4am depending on location. that would mean you all can have practice tonight.



Sorry guys, didn't see that particular post on my phone. I apologize. 

Carry on. 

I need a


----------



## RinggoldGa

Did the 12z GFS convert the Wed evening storm to all rain or am I seeing things?


----------



## dsceviour

Haha Chris Holcomb just said the american gfs models is not looking as strong with the snow for Wednesday evening but still shows winter weather. I'm not buying into that, I think its gonna be a lot bigger than the mets are saying. I'm still calling for 5-7 inches for the metro area


----------



## GA DAWG

Moisture on the radar now way back west.


----------



## Backlasher82

Thanks for the info DDD, I always have a lot more faith in your forecasts than other sources, probably because you have a much better record than them.


----------



## keithsto

Glen Burns just tweeted this for tonight (dusting to 1 inch):






And this for Wednesday (mostly rain):


----------



## jcountry

Backlasher82 said:


> Thanks for the info DDD, I always have a lot more faith in your forecasts than other sources, probably because you have a much better record than them.



Agreed.

Atlanta TV meteorologists are all complete retards.  Never fails.  They say "dusting" and then you get 5".


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Just noticed Glenn completely going the other direction for the system Wednesday night. Said mostly all rain. This kinda crap gets confusing. It's one extreme to the other.


----------



## jbird1

I wouldn't be surprised if the models flip-flop a few times before Thursday.


----------



## dsceviour

I'm not buying into the mets. All models have shown a big storm for metro area and DDD has better and more accurate info than the mets, doesn't sugarcoat things. I'll believe whatever DDD says and waiting for his input, until than I won't listen to the mets or weather channel


----------



## toyota4x4h

Ill get all excited tell a few ppl bout it (cause the locals mets arent talkin bout wed all that much) and watch it flip to rain hahaha!


----------



## dsceviour

As we saw last Monday the mets were way off calling for a high on the mid 40s and than we get hit with no higher than 36 and a lot of ice which the mets said was unlikely for us. I lost their trust long time ago


----------



## RinggoldGa

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Just noticed Glenn completely going the other direction for the system Wednesday night. Said mostly all rain. This kinda crap gets confusing. It's one extreme to the other.



As DDD or one of the other weather experts I follow on social media said last week, too many of the TV mets simply report to you on ONE model and change their forecast to whatever their ONE model shows with each run.  

A true meteorologist takes into account multiple models, knowledge of local conditions, and trends to make an actual forecast.  Too few of the TV types willing to do that.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Another point that DDD has said is to actually READ the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts when they come out.  If you get into the meat of them they actually give their reasoning for their forecast. 

For example they'll say, _"GFS shows rain but seems to be the outlier while NAM, Euro are trending to colder solutions with more snow at 48hrs out.  Due to lack of model agreement we think the best thing at this time will be to conservatively predict small amounts of frozen precip at this time.  However if models continue to trend to colder temps (as we think they will) future forecasts will increase accumulation amounts considerably".  _

That's all parphrased and not verbatim but for someone like me that doesn't even begin to understand it, their discussions on how they come up with the current forecast is eye opening and offer great insight into their thought process.


----------



## dsceviour

Another thing to remember is most of the Wednesday storm is gonna happen at night into Thursday morning so don't worry too much about rain during the day, its about that night unless temps can drop about 6 degrees by Wednesday. Wednesday night is the jackpot!


----------



## smokey30725

Man, every weather app I check has nothing coming tonight or Wednesday. It's like it all just vanished.


----------



## toyota4x4h

smokey30725 said:


> Man, every weather app I check has nothing coming tonight or Wednesday. It's like it all just vanished.



Prolly gone now i got too excited today and called a few ppl. Now we look like


----------



## JonathanG2013

Smokey go to www.noaa.gov. There you will see the winter weather for tonight and wednesday.


----------



## smokey30725

JonathanG2013 said:


> Smokey go to www.noaa.gov. There you will see the winter weather for tonight and wednesday.



Yeah, was just on there. Funny how fast the apps' forecasts come and go. Hope this whole thing doesn't become one big bust.


----------



## MaxG

Yall depress me with all of this "Where did it go? Its a bust!" talk. Wait for DDD to post. He's got a paying job he has to pertain to and will update us when he can.


----------



## dsceviour

MaxG said:


> Yall depress me with all of this "Where did it go? Its a bust!" talk. Wait for DDD to post. He's got a paying job he has to pertain to and will update us when he can.



Amen to that! The apps and mets don't take into account all that DDD does and only look at one model. If that model changes they go off that! I'm not calling for a busy, but more snow than forecasts are saying. Stay tuned, bout to get real good!


----------



## smokey30725

MaxG said:


> Yall depress me with all of this "Where did it go? Its a bust!" talk. Wait for DDD to post. He's got a paying job he has to pertain to and will update us when he can.



That's a good point. It was just unnerving to see it all day and then all of a sudden 3 different apps all had it vanish!  DDD will ride in and let us know the real low down on what's going on.


----------



## JosephSparks

If I remember correctly, some models like to flop about this time in order to correct themselves. The nighttime model at 6 paints the picture for us.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

NWS Huntsville just put their area in a winter storm watch for Wednesday Night thru midnight Thursday. According to their map it looked like snow amounts will be heavier the further south they get from Huntsville. Hopefully this will move directly east into GA.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

WeatherBug and weatherspark and of course DDD is calling for it so I am all in, I will take what I can get this week although hoping like many of you that there will be enough for the kids to enjoy.  Looking back toward Miss and Ala at the Moisture headed this way I am loving it and loving even more that we will be at freezing or below by the time it arrives later tonight.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> Man, every weather app I check has nothing coming tonight or Wednesday. It's like it all just vanished.



Delete every weather app on your phone.  They are all computer generated and highly unreliable.  They aren't worth the memory they take up on your phone.


----------



## toyota4x4h

They just put out a winter storm warning for murray county!


----------



## RinggoldGa

The 18z NAM that just came out really expanded precip for TONIGHT further north and west to include areas of NE AL, NWGa, and SE TN it hadn't in earlier runs.  

To my untrained eye for the crappy graphics I look at here it appears the WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY even has even more moisture than previously shown.  http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=18&fhr=19&field=ptype

Need the prophet to show up and lend some insight to it.


----------



## topfuelgirl

All 152 of us wait for the "D" man


----------



## GA DAWG

Its getting closer and Jbird1. I think your thermometer needs calibrated  Its about 10 off.


----------



## smokey30725

Anticipation level = high

This could be quite a system coming through!


----------



## DouglasB.

I hope that model is wrong. That leaves me out of it. Ugh, I hate this back and forth junk.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DouglasB. said:


> I hope that model is wrong. That leaves me out of it. Ugh, I hate this back and forth junk.



DDD said down and along to Griffin So hang in there most of us should see White by the end of this week


----------



## DouglasB.

WoodsmanEd said:


> DDD said down and along to Griffin So hang in there most of us should see White by the end of this week



I'm not really up on my geography on that area. Is Newnan/Peachtree City in line with Griffin?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

NWS issued WWA for the CSRA


----------



## DDD

GFS just bombed the mountains tonight and tomorrow. 6"

Could be interesting by tomorrow morning. I am home tonight so I will be updating a good bit. Or at least that is the plan.


----------



## DDD

Yeah... Yall better buckle up. This is going to be a fun few days.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DouglasB. said:


> I'm not really up on my geography on that area. Is Newnan/Peachtree City in line with Griffin?



Just below Newnan PC


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> Yeah... Yall better buckle up. This is going to be a fun few days.



We are buckled in and You have our full Attention


----------



## dsceviour

DDD update on wednesday, I'm really excited to see a possibility of such a big set up. Also do you think we get more than a dusting of snow here in gwinnety county for tonight?


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> GFS just bombed the mountains tonight and tomorrow. 6"
> 
> Could be interesting by tomorrow morning. I am home tonight so I will be updating a good bit. Or at least that is the plan.



Thanks again, Triple D. And I'm serious about starting up a collection to upgrade or purchase you additional equipment. It's fun to know what's coming in the winter, it is sometimes essential during severe weather season in the spring. Let us know or shoot me a PM and I will be glad to start the donation drive.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> Its getting closer and Jbird1. I think your thermometer needs calibrated  Its about 10 off.



That was a couple hrs ago when the sun was out...readin' 49 now.


----------



## topfuelgirl

GB is on now and has called for two events the mets are on board!!! The DDD wanna be's LOL


----------



## CamoDawg85

Migmack said:


> NWS issued WWA for the CSRA



Mig - what is this "csra" area you speak of?


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> Yeah... Yall better buckle up. This is going to be a fun few days.



Just waiting on you to make the call!


----------



## todd03blown

CamoDawg85 said:


> Mig - what is this "csra" area you speak of?



I believe he is referring to - Central Savannah River Area


----------



## DDD

153 viewing?!?!  Geeze...


----------



## malak05

98 Guests... Sign up it's fun and easy and with things getting crazy over next few days going to be great to see everyone's comments


----------



## Mike 65

153 waiting patiently 

Well some are impatient


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> 153 viewing?!?!  Geeze...



I saw a high of 166 today. Back in Jan 2011 with all that Winter precip we had, it was over 300 .

Hopefully mother nature cooperates with us this week and we get over 300 again.

Thanks for all the updates, DDD!!


----------



## jbird1

OK now I feel obligated to stay here or the viewing number may drop..lol


----------



## Resica

jbird1 said:


> OK now I feel obligated to stay here or the viewing number may drop..lol



It went up. You can leave.


----------



## jbird1

Resica said:


> It went up. You can leave.



Haha..be back soon!


----------



## 3ringer

I guess this might be a good time to go ahead and buy beer ,bread and some hockey tickets.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD..... How do you size up the Temps across the different viewing areas say Midnight on?


----------



## Mountainbuck

Smoky are we to far North?


----------



## dsceviour

DDD are you buying the all rain during the day on Wednesday and than snow overnight? What are your thoughts?


----------



## DDD

I will plan on writing a big update around 11 or 11:15 tonight. I will probably also put a call map together.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

CamoDawg85 said:


> Mig - what is this "csra" area you speak of?



Central Savannah river area. Metro Augusta and Aiken SC


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

157 viewing


----------



## jams6169

Mets on fox 5 said rain south of town . Think I'm going to turn the news off and just stay here and read what DDD and the rest of y'all have to say .


----------



## DDD

The boy and I are about to get in some batting practice in the cages while the weather will allow it. Cyall later.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> I will plan on writing a big update around 11 or 11:15 tonight. I will probably also put a call map together.



Sounds good Sir,  Thank you


----------



## JosephSparks

DDD said:


> 153 viewing?!?!  Geeze...



No pressure........ op:


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Just got home from work...wow, this place is a buzzing!


----------



## todd03blown

Some reading info from Mr. Spann on the WX weather.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=89278


----------



## Resica

jbird1 said:


> Haha..be back soon!



See you when you get back.


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> I will plan on writing a big update around 11 or 11:15 tonight. I will probably also put a call map together.


 "YES" I have waited for this night since last year  Love to see the 3D maps!! Thanks!!


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

DDD just said call map It just got real!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Ok paul barys in chattanoogas report just now on tv..2" for here around dalton. Hes calling 10" in Atlanta area lol. We better not get passed up on this one!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Wednesday/Thursday storm btw


----------



## GA DAWG

By 11 tonight. I may already be snowed in


----------



## Mountainbuck

toyota4x4h said:


> Ok paul barys in chattanoogas report just now on tv..2" for here around dalton. Hes calling 10" in Atlanta area lol. We better not get passed up on this one!



That's what I'm saying we maybe to far N in Murray/white field


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Can't wait to see that call map


----------



## JonathanG2013

Toyota Wow 10 inches would shut down the Atl.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Shoot yeah it would shut down bout anywhere in the south lol! Ill wait on ddd from here on though.


----------



## blood on the ground

Man didn't expect to see all this going on when I got up!!


----------



## Etoncathunter

Mountainbuck said:


> That's what I'm saying we maybe to far N in Murray/white field



Bite your tounge. I ain't thrilled about having to work through it tomorrow, this place becomes a  madhouse,, but I'm looking forward to it Wednesday.


----------



## mammajamma

Refresh, refresh, refresh....this is so exciting.  I am no professional, but I'm thinking we'll have school Tues and Wed, but will be out Thurs.  I'm in Paulding.  What do you guys think?  Merely speculation of course, until the great and powerful DDD shows his map!!


----------



## Patriot44

DDD said:


> The boy and I are about to get in some batting practice in the cages while the weather will allow it. Cyall later.



We were cancelled tonight, fields are too muddy and the batting cages were already booked.

Every year as soon as the boys start practicing, the weather turns cold(er) and wet. We have had 4 cancellations in the past two weeks.  Ugh!  I love winter weather as much as the next southerner, but man it's ball time!


----------



## todd03blown

mammajamma said:


> Refresh, refresh, refresh....this is so exciting.  I am no professional, but I'm thinking we'll have school Tues and Wed, but will be out Thurs.  I'm in Paulding.  What do you guys think?  Merely speculation of course, until the great and powerful DDD shows his map!!



If we end up with 2-3" in the northern burbs, I can see at least a 2-3" delay tomorrow. As long as the roads are hazardous.

Thursday I can them being out all day if what's being modeled comes to fruition.


----------



## malak05

Already  sleeting between Rockmart  and Hiram


----------



## DDD

One quick request on my part. Please don't PM me just to ask how much in my back yard. I had had a few people that have surgeries and what not that have asked... That's 100% what I'm here for. But please don't PM me with "is rockdale county schools going to have enough to be closed?"

I will cover that tonight so that everyone should have idea of what to expect ITBY. 

Also, getting a lot of questions on Twitter. Don't mind that either. I will answer when I can.


----------



## weezzey

Sleeting in Douglasville...


----------



## Patriot44

Sleeting in N Paulding as I type.


----------



## Priest

I just ran through rain and sleet in northern Marietta.


----------



## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> Already  sleeting between Rockmart  and Hiram





weezzey said:


> Sleeting in Douglasville...





Patriot44 said:


> Sleeting in N Paulding as I type.



That's crazy. The temps according to wunderground are between 39-41 degrees. 36-37 at my place in Hickory Flat.


----------



## mammajamma

Sleet in S. Paulding.


----------



## rolltidega

Same here mammajamma. Coming down pretty good!


----------



## Priest

Live temp while sleeting dropped from 37 to 34 in a half mile


----------



## todd03blown

With the sleeting happening this early.  Does this assist with getting the temp down sooner so when the heavier moisture arrives, this helps with potential snow accumulation?


----------



## mammajamma

It didn't last long...no more sleet.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> With the sleeting happening this early.  Does this assist with getting the temp down sooner so when the heavier moisture arrives, this helps with potential snow accumulation?



Great question. Sleet cools the column in a hurry. Also if it coats the ground it cools it too. Think about it like a cooler.  You put ice on the ground and it helps cool everything off as well it will help with sticking too. 

With temps getting in the 50's I wonder how it will stick.


----------



## Patriot44

DDD said:


> Great question. Sleet cools the column in a hurry. Also if it coats the ground it cools it too. Think about it like a cooler.  You put ice on the ground and it helps cool everything off as well it will help with sticking too.
> 
> With temps getting in the 50's I wonder how it will stick.



It is melting almost as fast as it hits, but it is sleeting hard.  Won't take much of this before the ground cools 10dezgreez.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Great question. Sleet cools the column in a hurry. Also if it coats the ground it cools it too. Think about it like a cooler.  You put ice on the ground and it helps cool everything off as well it will help with sticking too.
> 
> With temps getting in the 50's I wonder how it will stick.


Thanks, DDD. Appreciate it.

My place never got above 44 today. Come on Winter precip.


----------



## Patriot44

todd03blown said:


> That's crazy. The temps according to wunderground are between 39-41 degrees. 36-37 at my place in Hickory Flat.



Showing at 38 here, but it feels cooler.  Not sure the corrections have been made for 20 straight min's of hard sleet.


----------



## dsceviour

Just watched the weather channel to see what they say and they're saying all rain on Wednesday and Wednesday for metro Atlanta. Not buying that


----------



## parisinthe20s

37 and slightly sleeting here in Woodstock


----------



## smokey30725

Paul said just an inch or two for NW Georgia. I like Paul Barys, but hope he's WAY off on this one.


----------



## Brenda61979

Starting to sleet in johns creek area


----------



## smokey30725

Come on snow!!!! Very cold and blustery at my place in Flintstone right now. Conditions feel like it's coming.


----------



## deerbandit

Is it just me or does it look like it is breaking up the further east it moves heading toward Georgia?


----------



## Matt.M

Temp is dropping.  Lost 2 degrees in 30 minutes or so here in Decatur.


----------



## DDD

deerbandit said:


> Is it just me or does it look like it is breaking up the further east it moves heading toward Georgia?



Dont't freak out.. Simulated radar and models all show it falling apart and redeveloping as it comes into GA.  Now... if that doesn't happen... you can shoot the messenger.


----------



## deerslayer357

175 watching, highest I have seen lately


----------



## Crickett

186


----------



## TBean95

I feel like I am waiting to open presents on Christmas morning....waiting on DDD's call map!


----------



## deerbandit

DDD said:


> Dont't freak out.. Simulated radar and models all show it falling apart and redeveloping as it comes into GA.  Now... if that doesn't happen... you can shoot the messenger.



I'm not freaking out just trying to learn. This is a foreign language to me. I would love to be able to look at the maps and understand what I'm looking at. I just see a blob with colors moving and then a smaller blob with colors later on.

I trust you DDD!


----------



## Hooked On Quack

197


----------



## huntinglady74

Don't mind me just here for the info and comments..


----------



## shakey gizzard

My knee is throbbing!


----------



## DDD

TBean95 said:


> I feel like I am waiting to open presents on Christmas morning....waiting on DDD's call map!



I am actually working it up now.  I am going to draw her up, watch the NAM and the GFS and then post.  

I saw it get to 196.  Crazy.

Edit: 201


----------



## DouglasB.

malak05.... how about one of those purdy county maps of yours while we wait on the weather prodigy... 

you know... just for something to oogle over.


----------



## todd03blown

206 baby!!


----------



## DouglasB.

201


----------



## doenightmare

DouglasB. said:


> malak05.... how about one of those purdy county maps of yours while we wait on the weather prodigy...
> 
> you know... just for something to oogle over.



I love snow map porn.....


----------



## DDD

Going to go ahead and post the map for tonight's snow and then after the 00Z runs I will post about Wednesday night.


----------



## Gone Fishing

I'm sick of snow.  So far spent one week in Pennsylvania with snow, weekend in snow in New Jersey and all last week in Manchester / McMinnville Tn in snow - ice.  That's just this year in the past month.  I'm ready for spring.  Oh I'm sorry Summer.  I forgot we are in the weather pattern Winter then Summer.  I just hate being cold and miles away from home wondering if this will be the time I come home to frozen pipes.  The electric and water companies make out like bandits.  I have no choice but to leave the heat on 70 degrees and the water dripping on all the faucets.  Oh please tell me when the madness stops.  At least I'm home on this one.  But of course it won't do anything because I'm home.  Ok done whining......probably not


----------



## huntinglady74




----------



## JosephSparks




----------



## mammajamma

206


----------



## Patriot44

I just called off my guys and gals from work tomorrow and have them working from home.  Always better safe than sorry.


----------



## huntinglady74

221


----------



## DDD

To be honest tonight is a tough call.  Simply because temps, where the heavier bands of precip line up and we might have a little melting which will affect amounts.  So one might say that the map is a little broad, but looking at simulated radar, temps and some evaporational cooling this is what I surmise.

Obviously, the farther north you go the higher amounts on my map.  Temp will stand a better chance of being nice and cold and the HRRR models and RAP models have all shown a tongue of moisture that is heavier up north.

Obviously, this is pure guess... it could be heavier or lighter.


----------



## asdgirl

As long as College Park and Stone Mountain get hit equally with something I'm not going to work lol


----------



## deerslayer357

2" is a good start for the week!  Still hoping for 3-6" on Wednesday night!


----------



## Matthew6

236


----------



## DDD

Also, I have not mentioned this, but there is a freezing rain advisory from Savannah up the East coast through NC.

I don't think the roads down there will be bad, but any bridges that are elevated might become slick.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Bring the snow!!!


----------



## topfuelgirl

Thank you DDD for your time !!! You are the man!!!


----------



## malak05

DDD said:


> To be honest tonight is a tough call.  Simply because temps, where the heavier bands of precip line up and we might have a little melting which will affect amounts.  So one might say that the map is a little broad, but looking at simulated radar, temps and some evaporational cooling this is what I surmise.
> 
> Obviously, the farther north you go the higher amounts on my map.  Temp will stand a better chance of being nice and cold and the HRRR models and RAP models have all shown a tongue of moisture that is heavier up north.
> 
> Obviously, this is pure guess... it could be heavier or lighter.


Love it!!!... and to DDD point earlier remember  our snow tonight is not necessarily the system from the west... the bulk will be from the NE where precipitation retrograde and sorta does a counterclockwise swirl thru GA... if you look at recent Radar images it looks to be starting that at moment from NE corner


----------



## dsceviour

Can't wait to hear DDD's update later tonight on Wednesdays system, I feel like a kid on Christmas eve tonight and tomorrow night, hoping for something big Wednesday!! Bring it on winter!!!


----------



## DDD

The only other thing I keep having issues with is temps... It's 38.6 IMBY.  It was dropping and now its stopped... obviously the temp needs to get on down if 

A. it's going to snow
B. If it's going to stick.


Also, the "main moisture" should not hit until around 4AM - 8AM.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD what do you think about the NAM shifting North? How should that affect us for the Wed storm?


----------



## Peanut

It's 34 in Holly Springs with 77% humidity and a dew point of 27.  

I was in northern Cherokee about an hour ago and it was already 32 degrees there.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> The only other thing I keep having issues with is temps... It's 38.6 IMBY.  It was dropping and now its stopped... obviously the temp needs to get on down if
> 
> A. it's going to snow
> B. If it's going to stick.
> 
> 
> Also, the "main moisture" should not hit until around 4AM - 8AM.



drop baby drop!!!!!!! 34 here now


----------



## mewabbithunter

236


----------



## dsceviour

I don't like the look of the NAM shifting North, making me nervous for Wednesday...


----------



## lbzdually

It's 30-31 here IMBY in the 30705, so anything should stick that falls.  Everything seems to be drying out as it comes in though, so I hope that wraparound moisture kicks in.


----------



## mammajamma

Thanks DDD!  Service with a smile!


----------



## Matt.M

The NAM moving the storm north is making me super nervous for Wednesday.  No....


----------



## MaxG

Everyone calm down, DDD said the real moisture hits at 4am tonight. We are a 6 hours out. Also, the Wednesday system is still there for snow. Check out James Spann at Alabama Weather Blog.


----------



## dsceviour

Still think were looking at around 3-5 inches for Wednesday in the metro area, I know the NAM shifts more north but I think its gonna be wrong. I'm keeping confidence and waiting on Triple D to make the big announcement


----------



## Priest

GFS seems to have Wed pegged on a southern route, NAM slightly on the northern.....what say we split the difference and plow right down I-20?


----------



## alligood729

Priest said:


> GFS seems to have Wed pegged on a southern route, NAM slightly on the northern.....what say we split the difference and plow right down I-20?



I'm 4 miles north of I-20.....that sounds good to me!


----------



## malak05

Matt.M said:


> The NAM moving the storm north is making me super nervous for Wednesday.  No....


Some insight on the NAM the actually low followed the same track from previous runs just some temps profile issues due to a over amp system bring more warm air the snow lil further north... point is this isn't like Kentucky system a few weeks back with the low tracking further north and think any temp issues will work out.


----------



## topfuelgirl

And we wait......))


----------



## gunnurse

30 degrees and waiting in Ringgold. Columbus AFB and Hytop radar put the leading precip edge around Huntsville now. (Radar.Weather.gov.)


----------



## JonathanG2013

Maybe DDD is waiting for 11:15 GON Forum time. LOL to update us.


----------



## Priest

I swear that some of the modeling looks like it comes in even later than DDD said..... not to doubt him, but im worried.  I see a lot of bosses getting up in the morning, driving to work with a minor dusting. They make employees come in and then people get hurt getting caught in the actual event.

I normally leave the house at 0600....our first guy in is usually unlocking at 0530.  Our company has not made a call on tomorrow yet and that will be a morning thing.


----------



## DDD

So ... the question on everyone's mind tonight... How much in my backyard?  LOL..

I am making this first call map broad.  Reason being is the NAM is jacked up and thus pulls a lot of energy north, pulling energy north pulls warmer air in, more moisture and "pushes" the system north.

The GFS is a more southern solution and people from Macon to North Atlanta might want to root for the GFS.

The EURO is between the two and is sort of the model I am hugging because it's in the middle and makes the most sense in my mind.

So let's talk about the areas. 

Area #1:  This area really stands the best chance in my mind to see the best results.  Not the jackpot results, just a consistent 4-6" of snow.  There looks to be plenty of moisture on the northern side of the energy and temps are not a problem to the north.  So it's a win.

Area #2:  This area stands the best chance in my mind to have the highest measured amount of snow... but the down side is 10 miles from that spot it may be 3" shallower in depth.  With these ULL's they tend to have "bands" of energy that have ridiculous high snow rates.  Big massive flakes that pile up in a hurry.

Area #3:  This area will be on the razor edge.  There will be a dramatic sharp drop off from people getting 3-4" to people looking at flurries to people looking at all rain.  

Let me also say that people should not freak out when this starts out as rain.  It will and then it will in the blink of an eye change over to all snow.  Heavy snow.  It happened back in 2010 and it NAILED Athens.  9" if I remember right.  I was in Dacula with 3" of snow on the ground.  Jealous.

I am not staying up for the EURO... I will update with a more detailed map tomorrow.

Upper Level Low's are crazy systems that just bury someone and tick other people off to no end.  It is also hard to predict.  One thing that will help is when the energy comes down and starts to roll east, then we will be able to tell where this thing will wind up.  North like the NAM or more Southern like the GFS?  There will be a lot of moisture being pulled out of the gulf by this system.  

I think it will be one we are talking about for a while.


----------



## DDD

Priest said:


> I swear that some of the modeling looks like it comes in even later than DDD said..... not to doubt him, but im worried.  I see a lot of bosses getting up in the morning, driving to work with a minor dusting. They make employees come in and then people get hurt getting caught in the actual event.
> 
> I normally leave the house at 0600....our first guy in is usually unlocking at 0530.  Our company has not made a call on tomorrow yet and that will be a morning thing.



HRRR had the highest snow rate around 8AM in the ATL.


----------



## HuntinMaconCO

Just to clarify DDD this is for the Wed to Thursday system correct?


----------



## DDD

HuntinMaconCO said:


> Just to clarify DDD this is for the Wed to Thursday system correct?



That is correct.


Also, if this thing moves in any direction, it will move north and all that information there will just shift.


----------



## smokey30725

Well, dang, looks like the whole thing misses us up in Flintstone.


----------



## dsceviour

Whatever you do don't listen to local mets and the weather channel because they're only saying 1-3" on Wednesday. They're downplaying this system and IMO are way off on the totals. Listen to DDD and that's it. Get ready because its gonna be big!


----------



## smokey30725

Well, here's hoping for a winter wonderland sometime this week! Thanks Triple D for all the analysis!


----------



## DDD

It seems the temps are struggling on the east side of the state to get below freezing.  This may be more of a NW GA event and nothing but rain for those who don't get below freezing.


----------



## blood on the ground

33 in Cartersville


----------



## Priest

VERY heavy sleet just rolled in on me in Hiram

A friend reports snow in Buckhead


----------



## chewy32

33 and nothing in ballground


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Sho glad I'm south of that last blue line !! 


'Preciate it triple D !!


----------



## Goatdaddy

Started flurries around 1230 in Calhoun. Temp 36.  it is now 32 and sticking on my deck.  still just flurries.  sounds frozen when it hits.


----------



## TBean95

Pretty heavy sleet in Dallas (New Hope area)....32 on my deck thermometer.

I am loving the Wed/Thursday map.  Puts us right on the edge of Area #1 and 2 ... come on heavy snow!

DDD, Thank you so much for all of your hard work.  I have learned so much since I found this site several years ago.  I usually only lurk around though.


----------



## lagrangedave

38 and rain in McDonough


----------



## grizzlyblake

Everything is white and it's snowing hard here in Ball Ground.


----------



## Paint Brush

Well dang you weather boys sleep late. I figured this place would be hopping this morning. Well here in the holler we have about an inch of snow. The temp was slow to fall at 1:00 it was 39 and rain it's down to 33 now . The radar says more to come. What's in your back yard?


----------



## klfutrelle

A muddy mess in my backyard. winterville.


----------



## topfuelgirl

31.5 in Yorkville and freezing rain


----------



## nickel back

just wow, the shift north is going to hurt a lot of feelings.

folks yall need to pull for the GFS in a bad way and hope we can will this low back south for Wednesday thur Thursday

Im pretty sure Im out of no matter what but would love for yall up above me to get as much  snow as yall can get


----------



## marathon

5:15 a.m. in Dalton @26 degrees, cars are being covered with light dusting on the ground.


----------



## klfutrelle

Noticed a Winter Storm watch has been issued for the Athens area. Woohoo!!


----------



## ryork

Freezing rain and 30 here in Bremen. Had a burst of sleet for a while when we were under one of the heavier pockets. Could hear it from inside. The porch is glazed pretty solid, can see it glistening in the trees in the outside lights, but other than that haven't been out yet to check the driveway etc. 

Curious to see if this snow band that was supposed to develop from northeast to southwest materializes in the next couple of hours.


----------



## zworley3

Nothing here on the north side of Atlanta but a cold rain... I'm over it.


----------



## Patriot44

zworley3 said:


> Nothing here on the north side of atlamta but a cold rain... I'm over it.



Me too. Off to work.  North Paulding is a bee you ess tee.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Snow and sleet in Canton, Ga coming down now. The subdivision roads are white.


----------



## grizzlyblake

I just went and checked on the roads here in Ball Ground. Hwy 372 is covered with snow and pretty slippery. We have a 4WD RAV4 so it's no big deal, but I would be a bit apprehensive about heading out in a 2WD since none of the roads seem to be treated. 

There doesn't seem to be any icing, just good old fashioned snow, which is the best case for travel I suppose. Just drive carefully and leave room to stop!

I just took this on top of my grill on my back deck. Just on the East side of Ball Ground off 372. It's still coming down fairly well too. Weather Underground independent site across the road says 32F.


----------



## smokey30725

Decent snowfall here in NW Georgia. All the Chattanooga area schools have cancelled.


----------



## jbird1

Was snowing heavy in N Forsyth but now moderate.  Roads are going to take a while to cool. Forsyth schools closed.


----------



## Unicoidawg

North Hall here at work snowing like a banshee about a inch or more so far. Roads still fairly clean, starting to turn in a few spots.


----------



## DDD

35 and raining here. Too warm.


----------



## Etoncathunter

Here in Eton it's 28 degrees and we have what appears to be about 1/4-1/2" of snow on the ground right now.


----------



## smokey30725

Can't wait for the big one tomorrow night!!!!!!!


----------



## todd03blown

All nice and white in Hickory Flat. Roads are slick and white.


----------



## smokey30725

Channel 3 said tomorrow's storm will only be 3" or less for Atlanta northward. Want to hear what triple d thinks.


----------



## GA DAWG

At 3 am. Woke me up raining. At 5am. Ground is covered on forsyth co. Sticking to rd in shady spots now but my truck temp says 34.


----------



## ryork

Still freezing rain here, very light though. Around 29.5-30 degrees.


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> 35 and raining here. Too warm.



Yep! 34.5 with a mix!


----------



## Hooked On Quack

40 here in Washington county with a light rain.


----------



## Paymaster

Light rain in Ephesus. But there are ice cycles hanging off the porch roof.


----------



## parisinthe20s

A dusting in Woodstock, it's still coming down though. Did I hear right? someone said the Wednesday system is moving north? Well that's a bummer


----------



## Sargent

Hickory Flat...


----------



## RinggoldGa

Close to half inch in Ringgold.  Still with steady snow.


----------



## mammajamma

Paulding Schools are closed.


----------



## grizzlyblake

parisinthe20s said:


> A dusting in Woodstock, it's still coming down though. Did I hear right? someone said the Wednesday system is moving north? Well that's a bummer



I was wondering the same thing. WxSouth just updated Facebook and basically said the event tomorrow would be in the same areas getting snow right now.


----------



## PappyHoel

Just drove in to work from Dawson Cty.  There was about 3/4 inch on the ground and snowing hard.  I work in sandy springs and the precipitate changed from all heavy wet snow to sleet then sleet and freezing rain as I traveled south on 400.  The only dicey spots were secondary roads near my house in Dawson Cty.  However those spots weren't bad yet.  IMO the roads are fine right now.  I may not be able to make it home dependent upon what the weather does today.


----------



## smokey30725

The local mets are doing their very best to downplay tomorrow's snowfall. I hope they keep doing it. Everytime they downplay it, it seems that we get a lot more than forecasted. DDD, here's hoping your forecast leaves all the other "experts" with egg on their face!!!!


----------



## keithsto

smokey30725 said:


> The local mets are doing their very best to downplay tomorrow's snowfall. I hope they keep doing it. Everytime they downplay it, it seems that we get a lot more than forecasted. DDD, here's hoping your forecast leaves all the other "experts" with egg on their face!!!!



Hoping and praying the same thing myself for Wednesday, but sadly it seems local mets got it right on last night & today.


----------



## Matthew6

i just drove my wife to her practice in Canton. 575 from woodstock to canton north is an utter mess. wrecks here and there. Folks need to slow down. doesnt seem to me that the state treated this section of road at all.


----------



## panfried0419

DDD said:


> 35 and raining here. Too warm.


Come on up 124 about 10 miles. Gots fat flakes up here.


----------



## smokey30725

HA! Now channel 3 is saying 2-4" instead of 1-2" for tomorrow's system. I bet it will be up and down all day long again, lol. Wonder if there's anything in the works for the next week or so or if we should get ready for spring once this system moves through?


----------



## Ricky

just switched over from rain to sleet,in Loganville


----------



## MariettaDawg

keithsto said:


> Hoping and praying the same thing myself for Wednesday, but sadly it seems local mets got it right on last night & today.



Yeah.  I'm just not feeling the big one coming any time soon.


----------



## MariettaDawg

smokey30725 said:


> HA! Now channel 3 is saying 2-4" instead of 1-2" for tomorrow's system. I bet it will be up and down all day long again, lol. Wonder if there's anything in the works for the next week or so or if we should get ready for spring once this system moves through?



I'm running out of firewood so i vote for spring once this mess clears out.


----------



## snarlinbear

Steady light graupel falling in old town Roswell 1/2" accumulation on frozen surface including the road.  Did not drive but almost fell three times checking the surfaces out to the road and back.  Very dangerous at the current temp of 30.4 and more accumulation.  NO WAY WOULD I RECOMMEND DRIVING!


----------



## nickel back

right on the edge here in BARNESVILLE....temp is 32 and the wet bulb is 32.....


----------



## Bnathanb1982

*mix*

Just started mixing with snow in Monroe


----------



## deerslayer357

Snow, rain, sleet mix here in Oglethorpe county, beginning to accumulate small amounts on the back of the truck, etc but none on the ground yet


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Another swing and miss here in Haralson County as far as snow is concerned. Got a very light glazing of nice this morning.


----------



## smokey30725

Everyone keep the faith. Tomorrow night is the time to make or break this winter. Can't wait to hear the weather oracle prognosticate today.


----------



## Ricky

just switched from sleet to snow in the 30052


----------



## Crickett

Snowing in Barrow but melting.


----------



## asdgirl

Rain, rain and more rain in Stone Mountain when I left at 6:30 and right now in College Park.


----------



## kescj

Rain and very little ice here on Douglasville. Work and school as usual.


----------



## mguthrie

Fox 5 just predicted 2-3 inches as far south as henry Cty for tomorrow.


----------



## mguthrie

Still just rain in south rockdale


----------



## DCHunter

Rain in Douglas County, as I drove north on Austell Road it suddenly changed to snow right at the east-west connector. It was a very defined line.


----------



## toyota4x4h

I got an inch imby in chatsworth. Comin down a little still. More than what we had friday night.


----------



## rjcruiser

Rain in Covington


----------



## malak05

Finally coming down here in Dallas with some snow


----------



## dsceviour

Had a couple bursts of pouring snow with quarter sized flakes in Grayson/Loganville border! So pretty! Hope tomorrow comes through for us!!! Can't wait ❄


----------



## blood on the ground

North Paulding is getting a good mixture of sleet and snow at the moment. Ground is almost completely white at my house. The roads are getting very slick. Current temp 29.


----------



## Etoncathunter

On my way into work this morning most of the intersections were slick here in Chatsworth. No problems driving or stopping but taking off was another matter. Even trying to ease off I'd wind up spinning more than moving for the first few yards.  We're having calls of wrecks all over the county and not just in the normal trouble spots.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Etoncathunter said:


> On my way into work this morning most of the intersections were slick here in Chatsworth. No problems driving or stopping but taking off was another matter. Even trying to ease off I'd wind up spinning more than moving for the first few yards.  We're having calls of wrecks all over the county and not just in the normal trouble spots.



Im heading to work a little later today. The road i live on isnt the best right now lol.


----------



## LEGHORN

Lots of snow coming down now in east cobb, big flakes.


----------



## GA native

Snowing good in Kennesaw. Sticking to the roads.

Don't tell me they frittered away all that fancy brine water on last week's non-event...


----------



## hold em hook

Rained up until about 6 here in Barrow.  It's been snowing since then but it's not really sticking good.


----------



## snarlinbear

Moderate big snow flakes started falling in Roswell on top of previous mix.


----------



## rolltidega

Been lightly snowing here in Hiram for past 20 minutes.


----------



## No. GA. Mt. Man

About 4'' in the yard.


----------



## DDD

May have been to low in my estimates last night for tomorrow nights storm. Could be a historic storm on the horizon.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Okay we have been teased for the big storm tomorrow night!!


----------



## MariettaDawg

Whitlock / Polk are of Marietta is looking like Vail.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> May have been to low in my estimates last night for tomorrow nights storm. Could be a historic storm on the horizon.



You tease. Say something like this and post no details? 

Snowed a good bit in Buford, not so much in Duluth. Somewhere between 1-1.5" on the car when I got up, but the roads were clear so it was another nice commute in this morning.


----------



## MariettaDawg

DDD said:


> May have been to low in my estimates last night for tomorrow nights storm. Could be a historic storm on the horizon.



Temps?


----------



## DCHunter

Yep, I'm at the foot of Kennesaw mountain and its still coming down real good.


----------



## GA native

Dang Global Warming


----------



## DDD

Pouring snow here at the office in Lawrenceville... Ground is white


----------



## doenightmare

Nice big fat flakes in Roswell.


----------



## jf950y

Big heavy flakes in Athens very steady.


----------



## Nicodemus

Light sprinkle of rain and 42 down here in God`s Country.


----------



## DDD

MariettaDawg said:


> Temps?



Not going to be a problem.  ULL's bring their own cold.  Dynamic cooling will take over... the snow rates will be insane.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> May have been to low in my estimates last night for tomorrow nights storm. Could be a historic storm on the horizon.



hey, thats good news,well for the snow lovers anyways


----------



## asdgirl

Looking forward to your Wed-Thurs storm update tonight, DDD. I'm very curious about your guesstimates on when impact will begin. I only say that because if it's going to start at 10AM on the North end, I may be able to drive in to work for a few hours before having to rush back home.

I have a big issue with feeling guilty about being late to work or calling off for no reason, sort of like last Tuesday - my job in College Park was on a 10AM start delay (compared to when I'm usually here at 7A) and the weather was fine. Don't want to call out for silly nonsense in the morning if the impact won't be until the afternoon is all  

This mornings 'storm' can suck it cause I didn't see any snow


----------



## adavis

*Start time for Wednesday?*



DDD said:


> Not going to be a problem.  ULL's bring their own cold.  Dynamic cooling will take over... the snow rates will be insane.


School Administrator here just curious! Thanks


----------



## 25.06

nickel back said:


> hey, thats good news,well for the snow lovers anyways



Hopefully it will snow this time and everyone will be happy and then we can get on with spring time. I think we've had enough cold wet weather this winter. I am ready to see 60 to 70 degrees for a while.


----------



## DRB1313

DDD's call on system #1 verified in my book.  Bring on the historical stuff.


----------



## Crickett

Finally started sticking here in Barrow. Just a dusting but it's coming down in BIG flakes. 




DDD said:


> May have been to low in my estimates last night for tomorrow nights storm. Could be a historic storm on the horizon.







DDD said:


> Not going to be a problem.  ULL's bring their own cold.  Dynamic cooling will take over... the snow rates will be insane.



 *fingers crossed* I can't wait to tell my hubby "I told you so!"


----------



## Da Possum

DDD said:


> Pouring snow here at the office in Lawrenceville... Ground is white



Yep; I just make the trip from north Forsyth county to my office here in Lawrenceville and they was some big flakes coming down


----------



## nickel back

25.06 said:


> Hopefully it will snow this time and everyone will be happy and then we can get on with spring time. I think we've had enough cold wet weather this winter. I am ready to see 60 to 70 degrees for a while.



its been wet for sure just not all that cold, heck last year we had to shut down the lumber mill 4 times cause of cold and snow.


----------



## hold em hook

So if I have to meet someone in Asheville at 10 am tomorrow load a truck and head straight home.  Will I beat the storm if I'm home by 3 or so?  Hate to ask these questions here but I've already purchased some stuff and have to pull the trailer to pick it up and don't want to get trapped somewhere!


----------



## DDD

adavis said:


> School Administrator here just curious! Thanks



Send me a PM tonight and I will try and give you some specifics for your location.


----------



## DDD

hold em hook said:


> So if I have to meet someone in Asheville at 10 am tomorrow load a truck and head straight home.  Will I beat the storm if I'm home by 3 or so?  Hate to ask these questions here but I've already purchased some stuff and have to pull the trailer to pick it up and don't want to get trapped somewhere!



Yes.  You should be ok.


----------



## nickel back

well back up to 32.2 here in BARNESVILLE


----------



## keithsto

Parking lots and sidewalks getting a bit slick & slushy here in Lawrenceville


----------



## smokey30725

Does NW Georgia look like it will get to participate tomorrow night? Please say yes, please say yes.......


----------



## Lee

DDD, I'll be watching as well as communicating with several pastor friends about Wednesday night services. I'll be watching and great call on last nights storm.


----------



## hold em hook

DDD said:


> Yes.  You should be ok.



Thanks!


----------



## CharlesH

DDD said:


> Send me a PM tonight and I will try and give you some specifics for your location.



Andy and I are both admin in the sam district. Thanks for the help DDD


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Does NW Georgia look like it will get to participate tomorrow night? Please say yes, please say yes.......



This is the NAM.  It is juiced up the most.  I post this because I want everyone to take notice of how fast you go from Jackpot to 

Those north of the cutoff line... GOLDEN.  Those south of the cutoff line.  Well... don't shoot the messenger.

Yes.  That map has some folks with a foot...

It's not a forecast or DDD said so... it's just a model for you to wet the bed over.  LOL


----------



## nickel back

nothing but rain here right now


----------



## DDD

Lee said:


> DDD, I'll be watching as well as communicating with several pastor friends about Wednesday night services. I'll be watching and great call on last nights storm.



Thanks!  I actually thought my call map was pretty decent given the outcome.  At first I thought it was over done but the back end of the system performed well.


----------



## rjcruiser

Just drove from Covington to Athens.  Wet ground all the way to Mt Vernon on 78. Then...turned white On the ground. Rain with sleet all the way to 316...then flakes started. When i hit Prince ave and loop 10....the flakes got bigger and more prevalent.


----------



## dsceviour

I just watched the weather channel for fun and they said no snow expected for the metro area tomorrow, haha are you kidding me? Come on DDD tell me great news for tomorrow


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> This is the NAM.  It is juiced up the most.  I post this because I want everyone to take notice of how fast you go from Jackpot to
> 
> Those north of the cutoff line... GOLDEN.  Those south of the cutoff line.  Well... don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> Yes.  That map has some folks with a foot...
> 
> It's not a forecast or DDD said so... it's just a model for you to wet the bed over.  LOL



hey I like that map,like you say, its just a model but I like it


----------



## DDD

I will say this too... the TV stations need to start honking the horn at lunch.  This storm has the POTENTIAL to be HUGE.  Really big.

Just a hair over 24 hours out and they to me are sitting on their hands.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> This is the NAM.  It is juiced up the most.  I post this because I want everyone to take notice of how fast you go from Jackpot to
> 
> Those north of the cutoff line... GOLDEN.  Those south of the cutoff line.  Well... don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> Yes.  That map has some folks with a foot...
> 
> It's not a forecast or DDD said so...* it's just a model for you to wet the bed over.*  LOL



Okay, task accomplished.


----------



## DDD

dsceviour said:


> I just watched the weather channel for fun and they said no snow expected for the metro area tomorrow, haha are you kidding me? Come on DDD tell me great news for tomorrow



Models are not all dead set on an I-20 crusher so they will not bite unless they ALL say so.  Some of the short range models take the higher amounts north.  Some not so much.  Some are less liquid, some are historic amounts.  

Don't start cliff diving over the weather channel.  Anyone who has been here since what seems like forever will tell you I will keep you between the lines... even if it's not what we want.


----------



## Mountainbuck

smokey30725 said:


> Does NW Georgia look like it will get to participate tomorrow night? Please say yes, please say yes.......



There ya go smokey looks like N ga is in for it.


----------



## todd03blown

DRB1313 said:


> DDD's call on system #1 verified in my book.  Bring on the historical stuff.



Ditto! I have 1.25-1.5" of snow IMBY....


----------



## huntinglady74

Looks like if I wanna see snow I gotta go visit some where...


----------



## toyota4x4h

DDD said:


> I will say this too... the TV stations need to start honking the horn at lunch.  This storm has the POTENTIAL to be HUGE.  Really big.
> 
> Just a hair over 24 hours out and they to me are sitting on their hands.



no kidding. The chattanooga guys are still saying 1-2" only.


----------



## topfuelgirl

30.2 in Yorkville I don't think we will get to a high of 46 as predicted.


----------



## dsceviour

One guy just reported a new model came in and is showing a little warmer weather and less snow for the metro area... I don't like the sound of that at all!!!


----------



## malak05

dsceviour said:


> One guy just reported a new model came in and is showing a little warmer weather and less snow for the metro area... I don't like the sound of that at all!!!


It's  the NAM it's the outlier over amplified one...it's already dropping it's over amplified look suspect temps or next... all other models are a okay


----------



## dsceviour

So the NAM is showing warmer temps? Isn't the NAM a little more inconsistent than other models?


----------



## nickel back

dsceviour said:


> One guy just reported a new model came in and is showing a little warmer weather and less snow for the metro area... I don't like the sound of that at all!!!



the models will change all day long


----------



## malak05

dsceviour said:


> So the NAM is showing warmer temps? Isn't the NAM a little more inconsistent than other models?




Historically


----------



## StriperrHunterr

WxSouth just sounded the alarm.


----------



## DouglasB.

Just logged on to see Peachtree City gets left out again. I wanted a dang snow day!!!!


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> the models will change all day long



^^^^ This^^^^^

And not sure who "Some guy" is.

Just stay tuned in here...


----------



## DDD

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> WxSouth just sounded the alarm.



Robert is the ULL king.  He owns these systems.  They are what I term as his "specialty".  There are golden nuggets in his post and his insight.  

When he speaks... I listen.  You should too.


----------



## dsceviour

I like wxsouth post. The heavy totals included gwinnett county which is good enough for me!!


----------



## Matt.M

Here's WxSouth's latest snow map.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> Robert is the ULL king.  He owns these systems.  They are what I term as his "specialty".  There are golden nuggets in his post and his insight.
> 
> When he speaks... I listen.  You should too.



I do. Thanks to you both I'm much better prepared than I would otherwise be, as I'm sure a great many others are.


----------



## dsceviour

Matt.M said:


> Here's WxSouth's latest snow map.
> 
> View attachment 826365



The metro area/gwinnett county is included in that picture, correct? Sorry I can't really tell with the lines


----------



## No. GA. Mt. Man

huntinglady74 said:


> Looks like if I wanna see snow I gotta go visit some where...


I'll be looking for you there is plenty here!


----------



## mammajamma

DDD, you nailed it again!!  I credit you constantly because I have no idea about the weather, but people seem to think I'm the one who knows so much.  It's wild to see how accurate you are, and thanks to you, many of us can prepare as needed. 

Thank you, as always!!


----------



## elvis*tcb

DDD, you wouldn't believe how many GDOT folks I've turned on to your threads through the years! Thanks for what you do and I am sick of snow and ice.


----------



## GA DAWG

Well bring on the biggun.


----------



## Backlasher82

They said we'd get 1-3" of snow here last night, my tape says I got about 3.25" on my deck. So far.


----------



## todd03blown

Awesome picture!! So peaceful and pretty!


----------



## Backlasher82

todd03blown said:


> Awesome picture!! So peaceful and pretty!



It is quiet up here today and likely to stay that way. No need to shovel the driveway if DDD is right, and I'd bet a dollar and a half that he is.


----------



## blondiega1

UGH!!!!
We are suppose to be picking up our Motorhome in Marietta tomorrow at noon!!!!
We should be back home (Dallas) by 4pm at the latest.
PRAYING any snow holds off and we can get it home safely!!
I've been waiting to get the motorhome for SIX LONG WEEKS!!
It won't kill me to have to wait till Saturday to go pick it up but I really really really am loking forward to getting it tomorrow!
GO AWAY SNOW!!!!
At least till after 4pm tomorrow for this area. 














.


----------



## huntseven

DDD, thanks for your updates, in an earlier post you said something about "just a little over 24 hours out".  What time would you guess the system might move into ATL metro?  Gotta decide if folks need to plan on work or not.  Thanks


----------



## DDD

huntseven said:


> DDD, thanks for your updates, in an earlier post you said something about "just a little over 24 hours out".  What time would you guess the system might move into ATL metro?  Gotta decide if folks need to plan on work or not.  Thanks



Right now I think the 4-6PM range. 

Later model runs and 18HR short range models will help me nail down timing a little better.

This thing is going to hit hard and fast.  Make sure you got your camera's ready, cause you are going to see some intense snow fall somewhere north of I-20.


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> Right now I think the 4-6PM range.
> 
> Later model runs and 18HR short range models will help me nail down timing a little better.
> 
> This thing is going to hit hard and fast.  Make sure you got your camera's ready, cause you are going to see some intense snow fall somewhere north of I-20.



Maybe we can get to Marietta and back before it starts to hit then.
I sure hope so.


----------



## deermaster13

Wife said sleeting/snow at home. Waiting to see what will happen. We are north of I-20.


----------



## todd03blown

Backlasher82 said:


> It is quiet up here today and likely to stay that way. No need to shovel the driveway if DDD is right, and I'd bet a dollar and a half that he is.



Ditto! I have pushed all my chips in the middle of the table as of 8am this morning...All due to DDD


----------



## bml

What is convective snow?


----------



## Greene728

DDD. This is snow and not ice/freezing rain right?
Bring on Snowpocalypse, but hold the ice junk please!!!

Thanks DDD!


----------



## elfiii

DRB1313 said:


> DDD's call on system #1 verified in my book.  Bring on the historical stuff.



He was close for me. Chamblee/Doraville got a light dusting between 5-6am. Air and ground temps just wouldn't ratchet down low enough for anything else.

Same out here in Suwanee at my office. It's melting but I suspect some convective cooling is going on.


----------



## stuart smith

Should I plan to drive North DDD?I am in Beautiful Butts County.The trend has me a little uneasy....Really want snow!!


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> This is the NAM.  It is juiced up the most.  I post this because I want everyone to take notice of how fast you go from Jackpot to
> 
> Those north of the cutoff line... GOLDEN.  Those south of the cutoff line.  Well... don't shoot the messenger.
> 
> Yes.  That map has some folks with a foot...
> 
> It's not a forecast or DDD said so... it's just a model for you to wet the bed over.  LOL



Once again, I am experiencing the vapors. I cannot tell you how badly I hope this comes true!!!!!!!!!


----------



## dsceviour

Metro and gwinnett area is north of that line? Correct?


----------



## DouglasB.

smokey30725 said:


> Once again, I am experiencing the vapors. I cannot tell you how badly I hope this comes true!!!!!!!!!



You and I both. I'm pretty sure that cut off line runs right through my neighborhood... as in, across the street, snow. My yard... notta.


----------



## smokey30725

DouglasB. said:


> You and I both. I'm pretty sure that cut off line runs right through my neighborhood... as in, across the street, snow. My yard... notta.



fortunately for me, i am as far NW as you can get. right at the foot of Lookout Mountain. I look out my front door and see Rock City.


----------



## Milkman

dsceviour said:


> Metro and gwinnett area is north of that line? Correct?



Really, you cant tell that from the map in post # 407 ???


----------



## StriperrHunterr

dsceviour said:


> Metro and gwinnett area is north of that line? Correct?



Metro looks to be under it, and in the lesser band. Gwinnett however looks to be in the heavy band, but I could be mistaken about both.


----------



## todd03blown

Another update from Robert @ WXSouth.

Here's an example of how I think the storm will pan out. First, if you love the Geek part of following models--The Globals Euro and GFS are always missing the boat on the smaller cutoffs like this one. NAM and short range are the best to capture this setup, it's not the same as Big East Coast phased storms.
High Res. NAM and RGEM are the ones the globals probably won't match on this smaller but intense event.
New RGEM also clobbers northern third of Georgia including north side of Atlanta straight up 85 through Charlotte and Raleigh. Some of that zone may get up to 10"...with a good dose of 4 to 8" common.

Loop the animation. Notice how heavy intense rates are thrown into cold enough air, and the deformation (comma head) axis of snow fans out overnight in Tennessee across NC and southern half of Virginia.


----------



## stuart smith

stuart smith said:


> Should I plan to drive North DDD?I am in Beautiful Butts County.The trend has me a little uneasy....Really want snow!!



I realize that I will be on that razors edge.Its the weather,so we will wait and see...


----------



## mammajamma

If 4-6pm is a guess to when it hits, could there be another rush hour fiasco like last year in metro Atlanta?


----------



## Shane Dockery

mammajamma said:


> If 4-6pm is a guess to when it hits, could there be another rush hour fiasco like last year in metro Atlanta?



You can probably count on it.  If it looks bad, I'll be outta here way before that time frame.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

mammajamma said:


> If 4-6pm is a guess to when it hits, could there be another rush hour fiasco like last year in metro Atlanta?



Not if they hold to their plan about banning 18 wheelers under these kinds of conditions. At least that's how the plan is supposed to work.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Another 4"-5" here this morning. Had a really fun 45-mile drive to work in 2nd gear and 4wd dodging wrecks and scooting 18-wheelers. Is it springtime yet?


----------



## GA DAWG

I get off at 4 so as long as I can make the 13 mile journey home tomorrow eve. Im ready.


----------



## malak05

The early runs today.... my interpretations 

NAM & RGEM models a little further north solution: I-20 toward Atlanta 1-2.5 inches depending on North Suburbs or Midtown and higher totals further north

Euro(Last Night), GFS, CMC, GFS ensembles: I-20 track with 3-8 inch totals north of 20 up to Tennessee with sweet spot in middle; and a potential for 2-3 inches 30 miles south of I-20 

To be honest I trying to keep up with trending and stuff I think your probably looking at a combination of these models but that's just my opinion


----------



## smokey30725

I like the map triple D had earlier!


----------



## smokey30725

Can't wait to see what channel 3 predicts at noon.


----------



## stuart smith

Currently 37* and a steady drizzle with the smallest pieces of ice bouncing of the hood of the truck.I am talking grain of sand small.


----------



## smokey30725

Triple D's light is on.................


----------



## smokey30725

This thread is going to explode over the next 24 hours.


----------



## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> Triple D's light is on.................



His call map is like Nostradamus type stuff at this point!!!


----------



## rolltidega

Hey smokey I am hoping that traveling on Friday is OK.  I am supposed to head up to Chattanooga right down the road from you for the weekend!


----------



## smokey30725

rolltidega said:


> Hey smokey I am hoping that traveling on Friday is OK.  I am supposed to head up to Chattanooga right down the road from you for the weekend!



honk and wave when you come through!


----------



## nickel back

It's a crazy storm on crack rock and can not make its mind up


----------



## elfiii

smokey30725 said:


> This thread is going to explode over the next 24 hours.



We'll be on thread #5 before midnight.


----------



## smokey30725

elfiii said:


> We'll be on thread #5 before midnight.



You're probably right!


----------



## DouglasB.

Ya'll ever seen that 90's movie Blast from the Past... where the family thought the end of the world was happening so they buried themselves underground for 40 years. When they came up, they came up through the middle of a run down bar. The bar owner started a cult to follow the main character, thinking he was some sort of Jesus. 

There was one scene where the bar owner yelled out to the others "QUIET!!! He's going to speak!!!" 

That's how I feel whenever I see DDD viewing the thread.


----------



## smokey30725

nickel back said:


> It's a crazy storm on crack rock and can not make its mind up



As long as the NW Georgia portion holds together, I am happy.


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> As long as the NW Georgia portion holds together, I am happy.



Smokey, we are in the middle of the bullseye for this thing.  I don't think it's a matter of if but more a case of just how much we are going to get.  

My enthusiasm is a bit tempered as if I don't get the office opened I'm losing income.  I've got a broken foot so I won't get to get out and play with the kids like I would want to do.


----------



## DDD

I'm just trying to catch up on what yall are saying. LOL!


----------



## jbird1

32 degrees and holding in N Forsyth...


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> I'm just trying to catch up on what yall are saying. LOL!



Heck with us, we want to know what you're saying, lol.


----------



## DDD

I think my map from last night is off. Snow amounts should be higher. For those of yall freaking out over the NAM warm bias look at where the NAM tracks the low pressure over the panhandle of Florida. Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward. 

I think a blend of the GFS and GEFS is the way to go. 

I will make a call map sometime tonight that will be more detailed. This thing could still over perform and really light someone up.


----------



## DouglasB.

DDD said:


> Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward.



Now THAT'S the honey I came for!!!!


----------



## JonRatliff

DDD said:


> I think my map from last night is off. Snow amounts should be higher. For those of yall freaking out over the NAM warm bias look at where the NAM tracks the low pressure over the panhandle of Florida. Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward.
> 
> I think a blend of the GFS and GEFS is the way to go.
> 
> I will make a call map sometime tonight that will be more detailed. This thing could still over perform and really light someone up.




So you're thinking Dacula-Lawrenceville looks to get 2+ tomorrow tonight? Plus potentially more?

Hold onto your butts!


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I think my map from last night is off. Snow amounts should be higher. For those of yall freaking out over the NAM warm bias look at where the NAM tracks the low pressure over the panhandle of Florida. Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward.
> 
> I think a blend of the GFS and GEFS is the way to go.
> 
> I will make a call map sometime tonight that will be more detailed. This thing could still over perform and really light someone up.


Thanks for the brief update.

What are your thoughts on the temps today and how that plays into what is coming? It is still 31-32 over here in Canton. Tons of cloud cover and no sun in sight. They were calling for 42 or so for the high. I bet we don't get over 35-36.


----------



## DDD

JonRatliff said:


> So you're thinking Dacula-Lawrenceville looks to get 2+ tonight? Plus potentially more?
> 
> Hold onto your butts!



0 tonight. System does not come in until tomorrow evening.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Getting a little on edge with the models. Im in west/northwest Ga and the NWS has actually scaled back the forecasted snow amounts for my area tomorrow. They're forecasting maybe a 1" of snow or winter mix here. I see all these models being thrown around and we are within the edge or in the middle of a sweet spot. Then the TWC maps show nothing from about cedartown southward. Are those guys in a play it safe mode? When will the ATL mets jump on board with DDD and advertise this as potentially a major storm?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Getting a little on edge with the models. Im in west/northwest Ga and the NWS has actually scaled back the forecasted snow amounts for my area tomorrow. They're forecasting maybe a 1" of snow or winter mix here. I see all these models being thrown around and we are within the edge or in the middle of a sweet spot. Then the TWC maps show nothing from about cedartown southward. Are those guys in a play it safe mode? When will the ATL mets jump on board with DDD and advertise this as potentially a major storm?



Same as always, when it starts falling.


----------



## huntinglady74

Hmmmmm Macon Northward.... That sounds like I could get in on the weather....lol...


----------



## JonRatliff

DDD said:


> 0 tonight. System does not come in until tomorrow evening.



That's actually what I meant. *Tomorrow night


----------



## malak05

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Getting a little on edge with the models. Im in west/northwest Ga and the NWS has actually scaled back the forecasted snow amounts for my area tomorrow. They're forecasting maybe a 1" of snow or winter mix here. I see all these models being thrown around and we are within the edge or in the middle of a sweet spot. Then the TWC maps show nothing from about cedartown southward. Are those guys in a play it safe mode? When will the ATL mets jump on board with DDD and advertise this as potentially a major storm?



They are playing everything close to vest at moment cause thats what they do no need to worry... If you are anywhere near highway 278 your in the bulleyes for substantial winter weather no matter what model you pick!


----------



## parisinthe20s

The news said a high of 44° on Thursday, but if we're getting snow Wednesday/Thursday, shouldn't it be colder? I think I'm calling it quits when it comes to the Mets on tv


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> I think my map from last night is off. Snow amounts should be higher. For those of yall freaking out over the NAM warm bias look at where the NAM tracks the low pressure over the panhandle of Florida. Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward.
> 
> I think a blend of the GFS and GEFS is the way to go.
> 
> I will make a call map sometime tonight that will be more detailed. This thing could still over perform and really light someone up.




Just push it back to not hitting till after 5pm.  
Please and thank you so much with a cherry on top.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

SPC, according to WxSouth says Gwinnett will get ~5"

Yay...


----------



## DCHunter

I saved that image and overlayed it into Google Earth. The southern white line nearly goes right through my yard. Does that mean some of my yard won't get snowed on?





Matt.M said:


> Here's WxSouth's latest snow map.
> 
> View attachment 826365


----------



## todd03blown

Here is a snowfall map that James Spann just shared on his blog. Thought I would share this version as well.

Something funny about this map...It was posted on his FB page and one lady asked "Where is Alabama on this map, I cannot find it"....This made me LOL.


----------



## dsceviour

I think it's being underplayed by every weather channel and meteorologists. Everything is set up for a big snow event and the mets just don't wanna hype it up bc they're afraid so they're sitting on their hands downplaying it to be safe. Don't worry guys a lot of snow is coming whether the mets are on board or not, just be ready! Just my opinion.


----------



## smokey30725

Triple D is calling for it. That's all I need to know.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

Noooooooooooooo!!!!!


----------



## nickel back

parisinthe20s said:


> The news said a high of 44° on Thursday, but if we're getting snow Wednesday/Thursday, shouldn't it be colder? I think I'm calling it quits when it comes to the Mets on tv



this type of set up that would be a good idea


----------



## malak05

todd03blown said:


> Here is a snowfall map that James Spann just shared on his blog. Thought I would share this version as well.



This is a model combo that the NOAA weather predication center puts together using a combination of all the main models

They put out many Percentile ranges like this one at 75% what that means I believe is if their combo package reaches 75% accuracy  that's what the totals should be... or some crazy algorithm???


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> I think my map from last night is off. Snow amounts should be higher. For those of yall freaking out over the NAM warm bias look at where the NAM tracks the low pressure over the panhandle of Florida. Experience tells me this is a perfect track for Macon northward.
> 
> I think a blend of the GFS and GEFS is the way to go.
> 
> I will make a call map sometime tonight that will be more detailed. This thing could still over perform and really light someone up.



....thats pretty far south there DDD


----------



## grunt0331

I'll have 15 route drivers out tomorrow from Macon to Rome to Athens to Columbus.  Last year we had 3 spend the night in their trucks and I want to avoid that again at all costs.

DDD, please, pretty please with sugar on top, give us an idea of timing once it clears up.  I have to sell whatever decision I make to my Yankee bosses.  My guys leave around 0600-0700 and are mostly back in the barn by 1600.  Also want to make sure my employees that use Marta to get to and from work can get home from Stone Mountain tomorrow, along with the rest of us. 

Really appreciate all you do.  You hooked me a couple of years ago on the Christmas snow that started at my house within an hour of when you predicted.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

What time frame should we expect the winter watches and warning to start appearing


----------



## RinggoldGa

grunt0331 said:


> I'll have 15 route drivers out tomorrow from Macon to Rome to Athens to Columbus.  Last year we had 3 spend the night in their trucks and I want to avoid that again at all costs.
> 
> DDD, please, pretty please with sugar on top, give us an idea of timing once it clears up.  I have to sell whatever decision I make to my Yankee bosses.  My guys leave around 0600-0700 and are mostly back in the barn by 1600.  Also want to make sure my employees that use Marta to get to and from work can get home from Stone Mountain tomorrow, along with the rest of us.
> 
> Really appreciate all you do.  You hooked me a couple of years ago on the Christmas snow that started at my house within an hour of when you predicted.



That Christmas snow he predicted for DAYS beforehand is what got me addicted.  

Local mets didn't mention any wintry precip till Christmas Eve and even then they said flurries.  Christmas morning a local met said maybe a dusting and while he was doing a LIVE broadcast we already had over an inch on our way to 4-5 inches by noon.  

That forecast by DDD got me drinking the kool aid.  What was that, 2010?


----------



## smokey30725

WoodsmanEd said:


> What time frame should we expect the winter watches and warning to start appearing



I think some are in the works. If this goes the way Triple D and his counterpart on twitter say it will, it will dominate the news tonight and this thread will absolutely go crazy.


----------



## DaisyJo

smokey30725 said:


> Triple D is calling for it. That's all I need to know.



A-to the-MEN!!!


----------



## smokey30725

DaisyJo said:


> A-to the-MEN!!!



Yep. When it comes to weather, in Triple D we trust.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

smokey30725 said:


> I think some are in the works. If this goes the way Triple D and his counterpart on twitter say it will, it will dominate the news tonight and this thread will absolutely go crazy.



Agreed just hoping they get it together so all the kids that ride buses won't be in any harm out on the road should it get bad before they all arrive home.


----------



## smokey30725

WoodsmanEd said:


> Agreed just hoping they get it together so all the kids that ride buses won't be in any harm out on the road should they get bad before they all arrive home.



I would assume that the school systems will err on the side of caution with something as potentially big as this system. At least I hope they would.


----------



## elfiii

smokey30725 said:


> I think some are in the works. If this goes the way Triple D and his counterpart on twitter say it will, it will dominate the news tonight and this thread will absolutely go crazy.



Correction. Thread #5 will go ballistic. This one won't make it to 6 pm at the rate it's going.

Ya'll hush, be still and listen to DDD.


----------



## Msteele

todd03blown said:


> Here is a snowfall map that James Spann just shared on his blog. Thought I would share this version as well.
> 
> Something funny about this map...It was posted on his FB page and one lady asked "Where is Alabama on this map, I cannot find it"....This made me LOL.



If that map holds true we are in the 6" zone.  Sweet!
Need gas for the buggy to get to the Waffle House! ️


----------



## Nicodemus

51 here and the sun just came out.


----------



## GIII

Where is here?


----------



## orrb

33 here in south paulding county, near Rose's store.   What time is this next storm supposed to hit.

Wow 66 member and 103 guest..


----------



## Nicodemus

GIII said:


> Where is here?




Southwest Georgia.


----------



## bilgerat

todd03blown said:


> Here is a snowfall map that James Spann just shared on his blog. Thought I would share this version as well.
> 
> Something funny about this map...It was posted on his FB page and one lady asked "Where is Alabama on this map, I cannot find it"....This made me LOL.



just updated the map, snow thru Friday!!!!


----------



## smokey30725

Holy cow.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

That will be a lot of white for a lot of folks....I like it


----------



## grizzlyblake

Just to be clear, those maps are actually snow in inches that is accumulating on the ground, correct? Yes, I see the title of the map, just want to confirm that it's not a precipitation total to include the rain that we are supposed to get before the switch over to snow.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

I predict nine months from tomorrow Maternity wards across much of the State with be very busy....


----------



## huntinglady74

WoodsmanEd said:


> I predict nine months from tomorrow Maternity wards across much of the State with be very busy....


 HUSH!!!!


----------



## malak05

grizzlyblake said:


> Just to be clear, those maps are actually snow in inches that is accumulating on the ground, correct? Yes, I see the title of the map, just want to confirm that it's not a precipitation total to include the rain that we are supposed to get before the switch over to snow.



That's accumulated but remember a model not a guarantee or something to be expected verbatim... but man it's pretty


----------



## Matthew6

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Noooooooooooooo!!!!!



yes; and roll tide


----------



## DDD

Yep, this thread will not make it to tomorrow.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Yep, this thread will not make it to tomorrow.



I'm with elfii, I bet it doesn't make it through the evening.


----------



## alligood729

DDD said:


> Yep, this thread will not make it to tomorrow.



Just tell me it will snow in Social Circle...


----------



## mrs. hornet22

189 (69 members and 120 guests)


It's getting very crowded in here.


----------



## Matt.M

From WxSouth on Facebook.

I think between Birmingham to Atlanta and Charlotte is hit squarely on the nose with this one. I really like north side of Atlanta but at times the city may bounce between rain, snow and mix. If the rates win out, then its a MAJOR dump of snow. Odds favor just north but its oh-so-close right downtown. This is the dangerous kind too , where it clumps nicely to trees and powerlines. The 5H look has a great look at some of the best storms for northeast Ga and the Carolinas if you look back on the climatology just as long as your temps support it. And in this case, they do, for many of you. As usual that 85 corridor can be a mean make , or break type of highway. Someone is going to get dumped on though, with hefty rates a few hours. Good news is not much ice if any, maybe some sleet in a narrow zone.


----------



## Matthew6

smokey30725 said:


> I would assume that the school systems will err on the side of caution with something as potentially big as this system. At least I hope they would.



parents need to be proactive and not depend on the schools to make decisions for them.


----------



## nickel back

its 36.4 in BARNESVILLE right now

DDD is this cloud cover going to go away before Wednesday's storm comes rolling in?


----------



## erniesp

alligood729 said:


> Just tell me it will snow in Social Circle...



I second this


----------



## DDD

I just wet the bed over the Canadian model.  Have mercy.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Matthew6 said:


> parents need to be proactive and not depend on the schools to make decisions for them.



I so agree just wish everyone was that smart


----------



## keithsto

erniesp said:


> I second this



I third this.

Man, looks like we all need to have a meetup at the Messican place in SC.


----------



## lbzdually

Snow still has not melted here in the 30705, they said it would be gone by noon.  I've got to go to Kentucky tomorrow and come back Thursday, so I'm going to miss the kids playing in the snow come Thursday morning.  Who knows, I might not make it home until Friday.


----------



## erniesp

keithsto said:


> I third this.
> 
> Man, looks like we all need to have a meetup at the Messican place in SC.



Let's do it. I will be on the golf cart.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

WOW When you say Buckle up for a fun ride You mean it


----------



## Matt.M

207 viewing......


----------



## lbzdually

NOAA is a joke, it says snow and sleet accumulations less than one inch possible for Wednesday and won't even list a total for Wednesday night.


----------



## blondiega1

Timing is what I want to know.


----------



## lbzdually

Starting to snow here again-big flakes.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> I just wet the bed over the Canadian model.  Have mercy.



Good Lawd! Does that mean all this is still going to be on the ground on Friday?????


----------



## elfiii

DDD & co. is locked up in a tag team rasslin' match aginst Ole Man Winter and the Computers and Ole Man Winter and the Computers is a cheatin' and it ain't far.


----------



## smokey30725

lbzdually said:


> Starting to snow here again-big flakes.



Same here in Dalton.


----------



## smokey30725

elfiii said:


> DDD & co. is locked up in a tag team rasslin' match aginst Ole Man Winter and the Computers and Ole Man Winter and the Computers is a cheatin' and it ain't far.



sounds like someone done pimp slapped the fat lady and is about to make ole man winter do his Ned Beatty impression. Soooooo-weeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## toyota4x4h

smokey30725 said:


> Good Lawd! Does that mean all this is still going to be on the ground on Friday?????



We up north here dont like the canadian models..so GO AWAY! lol


----------



## elfiii

smokey30725 said:


> sounds like someone done pimp slapped the fat lady and is about to make ole man winter do his Ned Beatty impression. Soooooo-weeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!



$10 on DDD for the pin but the Deer Dropper's still got lots 'o rasslin' to do. Them Computers is nervous as a long tail cat in a room full 'o rockin' chairs and won't sit still for nuthin.


----------



## JosephSparks

So what we are trying to say is, the fact that my wife is nine months pregnant and due any day now is not a good thing for the next couple of days? Not sure if the minivan will make it to Gwinnett Medical in 6" of snow.....


----------



## Toddcosper

Is it weird that I can't stop singing, "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas"?


----------



## Milkman

JosephSparks said:


> So what we are trying to say is, the fact that my wife is nine months pregnant and due any day now is not a good thing for the next couple of days? Not sure if the minivan will make it to Gwinnett Medical in 6" of snow.....



 You may want to hang out in the lobby for a couple of days. They have a really good cafeteria and there if free coffee all over that place. 

Good luck and congrats !!!!


----------



## doenightmare

Milkman said:


> You may want to hang out in the lobby for a couple of days. They have a really good cafeteria and there if free coffee all over that place.
> 
> Good luck and congrats !!!!


 

Or get a hotel room nearby.


----------



## Backlasher82

elfiii said:


> $10 on DDD for the pin but the Deer Dropper's still got lots 'o rasslin' to do. Them Computers is nervous as a long tail cat in a room full 'o rockin' chairs and won't sit still for nuthin.



I'm not sure who I should be rootin' for in that match but I will say the folks hoping for snow have probably never been snowed in for over two weeks, you  start to get a little worried as the cupboard gets barer.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Snow has been melting the past few hours here in Woodstock, instead of a beautiful white backyard,I now have brownish orange slush


----------



## DouglasB.

DDD.... I have a question sir. 

Predicted high today was 45. It hasn't gotten past 35, and is starting to go down instead of up. Does that mean it will be colder than the low says tonight? And if so, won't that start us off colder than expected tomorrow? 

I wonder that because I can't help but wonder if the models that are pushing stuff north are taking that into consideration. Seems to me that the colder it gets the further north models push it. Seems like that's the opposite of what should be happening.


----------



## dsceviour

Wsb just updated their snow totals to a trace for the metro area are you kiddine me? Haha what a joke


----------



## dsceviour

Wsb is a complete joke, same accumulation as today's snow? Where are they getting their info lol so off!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Milkman said:


> You may want to hang out in the lobby for a couple of days. They have a really good cafeteria and there if free coffee all over that place.
> 
> Good luck and congrats !!!!



Sound advice.


----------



## Etoncathunter

lbzdually said:


> Snow still has not melted here in the 30705, they said it would be gone by noon.  I've got to go to Kentucky tomorrow and come back Thursday, so I'm going to miss the kids playing in the snow come Thursday morning.  Who knows, I might not make it home until Friday.



Yeah we were supposed hit 42 today, we have yet to break freezing.  We have been hanging right at 32 for the last couple hours.


----------



## smokey30725

32 here in dalton.


----------



## nickel back

DouglasB. said:


> DDD.... I have a question sir.
> 
> Predicted high today was 45. It hasn't gotten past 35, and is starting to go down instead of up. Does that mean it will be colder than the low says tonight? And if so, won't that start us off colder than expected tomorrow?
> 
> I wonder that because I can't help but wonder if the models that are pushing stuff north are taking that into consideration. Seems to me that the colder it gets the further north models push it. Seems like that's the opposite of what should be happening.



crazy right, the high temp for BARNESVILLE  was 42, we made it to 36.4. May not be much but it may make the difference on what may happen Wednesday night


----------



## nickel back

DDD how far down does the 850 freeze line go?


----------



## nickel back

for anybody wanting to check your temps 

http://weather.uga.edu/


----------



## jbird1

dsceviour said:


> Wsb just updated their snow totals to a trace for the metro area are you kiddine me? Haha what a joke



The Weather Entertainment Channel also


----------



## Da Possum

33.1 here......33.1


----------



## mtr3333

If not for global warning, it would have been worse.


----------



## panfried0419

30 in Gainesville


----------



## stuart smith

NWS issues watch and says..........expect changes!!I feel the cooler highs today are a good thing for snow lovers.37*degrees earlier and tiny ice mixing with the drizzzle.To me,that is also a positive.Bring it!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

33 here. All snow has melted. Im not expecting anymore.


----------



## todd03blown

33 IMBY in Hickory Flat. Much lower than the forecast high of 42 or so. Keeps that ground nice and cold for the upcoming snow


----------



## parkerman

For what it's worth, the National Weather Service just released a video on Facebook changing the Watch area over to a Warning.  It covers all of the metro Atl area.


----------



## elfiii

parkerman said:


> For what it's worth, the National Weather Service just released a video on Facebook changing the Watch area over to a Warning.  It covers all of the metro Atl area.



In other words "We have no idea so we are going for bad".


----------



## GA native

How are the roads in Canton? I have a hunter's ed course up there tonight.


----------



## grizzlyblake

GA native said:


> How are the roads in Canton? I have a hunter's ed course up there tonight.



Dry and clear.


----------



## Matthew6

GA native said:


> How are the roads in Canton? I have a hunter's ed course up there tonight.



fine and clear. 575 wide open and side roads clear.


----------



## rydert

40 degrees in beautiful Kite Ga.


----------



## GA native

Matthew6 said:


> fine and clear. 575 wide open and side roads clear.



Thank you.
And for her, I could become a Bama fan.


----------



## Swampslayr

DDD... When all this is set in will the high temps for Friday and Saturday be lower than projected or we still get some warm weather to take it away... I'm GDOT employee and I'm so tired of this winter weather... 12 hour shifts are getting old so just wondering about how long our crews will have to work it... And thanks for all that you do... Have learned a lot about weather in the past few years from reading these threads!


----------



## parisinthe20s

32 in Woodstock, icy rain for a few minutes earlier but now nothing.


----------



## Etoncathunter

We've just hit 34 in Chatsworth and everything is starting to melt  quick now.


----------



## 95g atl

filled up both of my 4x4's with gas so i am ready.

all melted and a cold 35 degrees.  That was the "high" temperature here in Suwanee.  Wow.


----------



## topfuelgirl

39.6 in Yorkville high 46 yeah right LOL


----------



## todd03blown

Figured I would share Ken Cook's forecast on this...

TOMORROW'S WINTER STROM COULD BE A DOOZIE...

Not everywhere, of course, but for a good part of north Georgia, it could be. The problem is where to draw the rain/snow line. It looks like the rain/snow line is north, and perhaps well north of I-20 cutting across the state. Because of the lack of solidly below freezing temperatures below 5 thousand feet, I am going to put the rain/snow line near ROME TO CARTERSVILLE TO CANTON TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE TO ELBERTON AND THEN NEWD INTO S.C.

NORTH of that line, there will exist the possibility of a heavy snow of 2-4 inches, with higher amounts in the mountains of NW Ga. and NE Ga. There, amounts may exceed 6 inches. This will be a heavy and wet snow, similar to this morning's, but potentially a lot more of it. If this comes to be, pine limbs and branches will be heavily laden with heavy snow, to the breaking point. South of this line, there still may be some snow, but generally less than one inch, perhaps as far south as I-20.

AS USUAL, there are still many factors that will affect the outcome of this storm. They are:

1, The depth and extent of subfreezing air over north Ga. Wednesday afternoon and night.

2, The strength and precise location of the low pressure center as it moves near the Florida panhandle coastal area late Wed. PM and Eve.

3, The speed with which this system moves by, which appears to be pretty rapid, at this time, about a 6 hour duration.

4, Sufficient moisture is indicated by several computer models to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch of liquid equivalent in the snow areas and 1/2 to 1 inch of rain south of the snow. I am using a ratio of 5 to 1 to predict the snow amounts, since the snow will be very close to 32 degrees and heavy. That comes to 2 to 4 inches north of the rain/ snow line. Mountain areas could receive more. If more cold air near the surface moves in, the snow ratio could increase, perhaps to 7 or 8 to 1, and thus increasing the snow amounts.

New information comes in after 10 pm tonight and 10 am Wed., and I'll have that for you. So, we have two more chances to look at this storm before it moves in.


----------



## jbird1

34 degrees at Forsyth-Dawson line...gotta believe this appetizer has primed the pump for tomorrow


----------



## jbird1

todd03blown said:


> Figured I would share Ken Cook's forecast on this...
> 
> TOMORROW'S WINTER STROM COULD BE A DOOZIE...
> 
> Not everywhere, of course, but for a good part of north Georgia, it could be. The problem is where to draw the rain/snow line. It looks like the rain/snow line is north, and perhaps well north of I-20 cutting across the state. Because of the lack of solidly below freezing temperatures below 5 thousand feet, I am going to put the rain/snow line near ROME TO CARTERSVILLE TO CANTON TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE TO ELBERTON AND THEN NEWD INTO S.C.
> 
> NORTH of that line, there will exist the possibility of a heavy snow of 2-4 inches, with higher amounts in the mountains of NW Ga. and NE Ga. There, amounts may exceed 6 inches. This will be a heavy and wet snow, similar to this morning's, but potentially a lot more of it. If this comes to be, pine limbs and branches will be heavily laden with heavy snow, to the breaking point. South of this line, there still may be some snow, but generally less than one inch, perhaps as far south as I-20.
> 
> AS USUAL, there are still many factors that will affect the outcome of this storm. They are:
> 
> 1, The depth and extent of subfreezing air over north Ga. Wednesday afternoon and night.
> 
> 2, The strength and precise location of the low pressure center as it moves near the Florida panhandle coastal area late Wed. PM and Eve.
> 
> 3, The speed with which this system moves by, which appears to be pretty rapid, at this time, about a 6 hour duration.
> 
> 4, Sufficient moisture is indicated by several computer models to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch of liquid equivalent in the snow areas and 1/2 to 1 inch of rain south of the snow. I am using a ratio of 5 to 1 to predict the snow amounts, since the snow will be very close to 32 degrees and heavy. That comes to 2 to 4 inches north of the rain/ snow line. Mountain areas could receive more. If more cold air near the surface moves in, the snow ratio could increase, perhaps to 7 or 8 to 1, and thus increasing the snow amounts.
> 
> New information comes in after 10 pm tonight and 10 am Wed., and I'll have that for you. So, we have two more chances to look at this storm before it moves in.



Ol' Ken still at it


----------



## cripple

33 degrees IMBY here in Winder..looks like most of the state N of I20 is hovering around the low to mid 30s and way below the mid 40s that was forecast.


----------



## tcward

todd03blown said:


> Figured I would share Ken Cook's forecast on this...
> 
> TOMORROW'S WINTER STROM COULD BE A DOOZIE...
> 
> Not everywhere, of course, but for a good part of north Georgia, it could be. The problem is where to draw the rain/snow line. It looks like the rain/snow line is north, and perhaps well north of I-20 cutting across the state. Because of the lack of solidly below freezing temperatures below 5 thousand feet, I am going to put the rain/snow line near ROME TO CARTERSVILLE TO CANTON TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE TO ELBERTON AND THEN NEWD INTO S.C.
> 
> NORTH of that line, there will exist the possibility of a heavy snow of 2-4 inches, with higher amounts in the mountains of NW Ga. and NE Ga. There, amounts may exceed 6 inches. This will be a heavy and wet snow, similar to this morning's, but potentially a lot more of it. If this comes to be, pine limbs and branches will be heavily laden with heavy snow, to the breaking point. South of this line, there still may be some snow, but generally less than one inch, perhaps as far south as I-20.
> 
> AS USUAL, there are still many factors that will affect the outcome of this storm. They are:
> 
> 1, The depth and extent of subfreezing air over north Ga. Wednesday afternoon and night.
> 
> 2, The strength and precise location of the low pressure center as it moves near the Florida panhandle coastal area late Wed. PM and Eve.
> 
> 3, The speed with which this system moves by, which appears to be pretty rapid, at this time, about a 6 hour duration.
> 
> 4, Sufficient moisture is indicated by several computer models to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch of liquid equivalent in the snow areas and 1/2 to 1 inch of rain south of the snow. I am using a ratio of 5 to 1 to predict the snow amounts, since the snow will be very close to 32 degrees and heavy. That comes to 2 to 4 inches north of the rain/ snow line. Mountain areas could receive more. If more cold air near the surface moves in, the snow ratio could increase, perhaps to 7 or 8 to 1, and thus increasing the snow amounts.
> 
> New information comes in after 10 pm tonight and 10 am Wed., and I'll have that for you. So, we have two more chances to look at this storm before it moves in.



Thanks but I will wait on DDD.


----------



## dsceviour

DDD what's your opinion on the warning? Are the low balling the totals with 2-4 in metro and up to 6 in mountains?


----------



## kennesawnative

why are the local "pros" so far off from what GON's resident weather man says is possible? Its funny watching you guys chomping at the bit for updates and reveling in the weather hysteria!


----------



## kennesawnative

jbird1 said:


> Ol' Ken still at it



so if Ken is right, then the extreme top tier of the state will only see it and not anywhere near what the man says here????????????


----------



## todd03blown

I only posted Ken's forecast for banter and filler (talking points) while waiting for DDD. I think it is interesting to share other forecasts to see where everyone lies.

If DDD and the moderators prefer, they can delete the Ken's forecast.

I have been on the DDD weather forecasting for 4 solid years and no one else.


----------



## doenightmare

kennesawnative said:


> so if Ken is right, then the extreme top tier of the state will only see it and not anywhere near what the man says here????????????


 

Winter Weather Thread newbies.


----------



## jbird1

kennesawnative said:


> so if Ken is right, then the extreme top tier of the state will only see it and not anywhere near what the man says here????????????



Look for a call map 'round 11:15 tonight


----------



## mguthrie

Ken cook didn't sugar coat his forcasts when he was on tv. Don't think he would now. Don't be surprised if 3-D's forecast is in line with ken's. Appreciate everything 3-D does. Keep up the good work


----------



## stuart smith

mguthrie said:


> Ken cook didn't sugar coat his forcasts when he was on tv. Don't think he would now. Don't be surprised if 3-D's forecast is in line with ken's. Appreciate everything 3-D does. Keep up the good work



I doubt it...


----------



## georgiaboy0311

New guy to the weather threads round here...very interesting stuff for sure though! What's the story behind DDD? Everyone seems to hold him in pretty high regards. I sure hope he's right about the snow, I've been out of state for the last four years and would love a good snow storm!


----------



## kennesawnative

doenightmare said:


> Winter Weather Thread newbies.



not new, just dont post


----------



## StriperrHunterr

georgiaboy0311 said:


> New guy to the weather threads round here...very interesting stuff for sure though! What's the story behind DDD? Everyone seems to hold him in pretty high regards. I sure hope he's right about the snow, I've been out of state for the last four years and would love a good snow storm!



His track record at reading maps in advance and seeing these things, or at least talking about them, long before other people do. 

Some say that he's a bit of an alarmist for being proactive with his alerts so we can be prepared. 

Some say that he's overwhipping the froth and inciting panic. 
Either way he's our resident Weather Stig. 

Sorry, DDD, I tried to make that as good as I could and I don't think I did you justice.


----------



## dsceviour

Omg did the weather channel just really call for 0" in metro??? That's so not true!!


----------



## elfiii

kennesawnative said:


> why are the local "pros" so far off from what GON's resident weather man says is possible?



Go back and read prior year's Winter Wx threads.


----------



## erniesp

DDD is on here and looking.


----------



## nickel back

I will go with DDD every time.....

Side note, this storm is on crack rock and and could move north or south at any given point,any move 50 miles either direction could be huge in snow amounts


----------



## doenightmare

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> His track record at reading maps in advance and seeing these things, or at least talking about them, long before other people do.
> 
> Some say that he's a bit of an alarmist for being proactive with his alerts so we can be prepared.
> 
> Some say that he's overwhipping the froth and inciting panic.
> Either way he's our resident Weather Stig.
> 
> Sorry, DDD, I tried to make that as good as I could and I don't think I did you justice.


 


You forgot to mention he's a diva.


----------



## georgiaboy0311

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> His track record at reading maps in advance and seeing these things, or at least talking about them, long before other people do.
> 
> Some say that he's a bit of an alarmist for being proactive with his alerts so we can be prepared.
> 
> Some say that he's overwhipping the froth and inciting panic.
> Either way he's our resident Weather Stig.
> 
> Sorry, DDD, I tried to make that as good as I could and I don't think I did you justice.



Gotcha, thanks for the explanation


----------



## DDD

elfiii said:


> Go back and read prior year's Winter Wx threads.



Thanks guys. 

The proof is in the pudd'n.  

Sure I've blown it. Sure I've totally looked at things with snow covered glasses.  But I also have frog hammered our local guys. 

Is that a resume?


----------



## Sweetwater

DDD = Done Did Dat.

Thanks for all you do.


----------



## todd03blown

ddd said:


> thanks guys.
> 
> The proof is in the pudd'n.
> 
> Sure i've blown it. Sure i've totally looked at things with snow covered glasses.  But i also have frog hammered our local guys.
> 
> *is that a resume?*



yes


----------



## DouglasB.

Anyone else just see Glenn Burns? Showing multiple models, but didn't sway either way. I think that was his way of nicely saying "I have no idea what to expect, so look at all these pretty colors."


----------



## dsceviour

DDD what do you think the high temperature will get to for us in gwinnett? I've heard up to 40 with just rain...


----------



## DDD

So the panic has begun. Channel 2 is saying 0" for ATL and Athens. 

Don't freak out yet peeps. However, there is these. Who do you want to believe WSB or the NWS?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I noticed the jet stream will be just below the I20 line. What does  the jet stream have to do with snow or no snow on the I20 line?


----------



## DDD

WSB 30 minutes ago


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> Thanks guys.
> 
> The proof is in the pudd'n.
> 
> Sure I've blown it. Sure I've totally looked at things with snow covered glasses.  But I also have frog hammered our local guys.
> 
> Is that a resume?



Your Hired....Wait you are already my favorite and go to Weather Guy


----------



## JonRatliff

DDD said:


> WSB 30 minutes ago



That looks like a ridiculous understatement.


----------



## doenightmare

Will you be able to make a call tonight 3D? Or will it be tomorrrow?


----------



## snookdoctor

DDD said:


> Thanks guys.
> 
> The proof is in the pudd'n.
> 
> Sure I've blown it. Sure I've totally looked at things with snow covered glasses.  But I also have frog hammered our local guys.
> 
> Is that a resume?



Close enough.

Media talking heads have to be status quo, I guess.
Me, I would rather be prepared for something that may not materialize, than be blindsided by something that I  don't have time to prepare for.

Rock on 3D.


----------



## Keebs

doenightmare said:


> You forgot to mention he's a diva.





WoodsmanEd said:


> Your Hired....Wait you are already my favorite and go to Weather Guy


Yep!


----------



## 91xjgawes

DDD said:


> So the panic has begun. Channel 2 is saying 0" for ATL and Athens.
> 
> Don't freak out yet peeps. However, there is these. Who do you want to believe WSB or the NWS?



Looks to be just miss in thomson


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I've seen it hit on a miss a few good times for the CSRA.  Then the mets come out and say wow this came out of no where and our area is hard to predict.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Migmack said:


> I've seen it hit on a miss a few good times for the CSRA.  Then the mets come out and say wow this came out of no where and our area is hard to predict.



And I'm driving home on ice and snow.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> Is that a resume?



Rock solid. 

I know you will whoop these computer models and if you don't it will be because 'Ole Man Winter pulled a last minute head fake like he's been doing all year. After all, he's got to try and even up the score a little bit. You been nailing him to the wall for years and he don't like it one bit.


----------



## dsceviour

So are we gonna see some accumulations or no? I know the mets are saying nothing for us on metro buy I'm not buying it. What does everyone think?


----------



## blondiega1

DouglasB. said:


> Anyone else just see Glenn Burns? Showing multiple models, but didn't sway either way. I think that was his way of nicely saying "I have no idea what to expect, so look at all these pretty colors."



I saw that and thought the same thing.
Even Mellish right now is reluctant make a call.


----------



## DDD

I will post tonight. Probably around 10-11pm


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> I will post tonight. Probably around 10-11pm





I know I'll be checking in.


----------



## GA DAWG

Frog Hammered.


----------



## todd03blown

Cherokee County just closed schools tomorrow....Game time! Lets go SNOW!!


----------



## DDD

I will say... I am a little concerned about temp issues.  This will be HARD to call. For ANYONE.


----------



## MaxG

Fox 5 reporting the truth just now


----------



## blondiega1

DDD said:


> I will say... I am a little concerned about temp issues.  This will be HARD to call. For ANYONE.



Worried temps going up? Or down?


----------



## PappyHoel

Cold rain.....Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> I will post tonight. Probably around 10-11pm





DDD said:


> I will say... I am a little concerned about temp issues.  This will be HARD to call. For ANYONE.



Don't shoot til you see the whites of their eyes. Stay frosty.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD, what do all the guys say on your weather forums about the mets in ATL being so reluctant to say something could happen?  Are they derided for it or is their caution to be expected?


----------



## Mountainbuck

DDD said:


> I will say... I am a little concerned about temp issues.  This will be HARD to call. For ANYONE.



Whoa! Wait what happened?


----------



## PappyHoel




----------



## fireman401

Well if I can't have it at home, I will go visit.  I have an event at the state capital beginning at 6:30 a.m. and ending by noon Wednesday.  Will be interesting to see what accumulates in that time period.  Good to go, except for the ice.  Might even hook to it and try pulling it back south!  
Enjoy the snow folks, but stay safe!


----------



## dsceviour

I'm getting a little nervous now... Not gonna lie


----------



## nickel back

Told yall,crack rock.....if this joker ticks north to much it's rain


----------



## Mountainbuck

nickel back said:


> Told yall,crack rock.....if this joker ticks north to much it's rain



What!!!!!???


----------



## Bnathanb1982

*temps*

DDD you said that closed lows bring their own cold air and now people are worrying about temps. Is this because the closed low doesn't stay closed?


----------



## GA DAWG

Mountainbuck said:


> What!!!!!???


It means bust or no snow I think.


----------



## nickel back

Mountainbuck said:


> What!!!!!???



Not saying it has but looks like the temps are having a hard time pushing down and ATL might not be cold enough......wait for DDD he will let us know


----------



## Crickett

I think it's time to bring back the "Free Cat" avi DDD


----------



## toyota4x4h

Even if it ticks north us up here in the north counties will still get snow.


----------



## PappyHoel

Crickett said:


> I think it's time to bring back the "Free Cat" avi DDD



I totally agree, start a poll.


----------



## elfiii

Crickett said:


> I think it's time to bring back the "Free Cat" avi DDD





PappyHoel said:


> I totally agree, start a poll.



It's always brought him good luck.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Channel 2 on board for 3 to 5in, That means 10 to 12!


----------



## PappyHoel

elfiii said:


> It's always brought him good luck.



Sure has and it's time to put the rally hat on.


----------



## Shane Dockery

shakey gizzard said:


> Channel 2 on board for 3 to 5in, That means 10 to 12!



That's about the most accurate statement made on this forum.


----------



## Matthew6

Smokey.......time to fire up the beagles


----------



## RE185

I don't believe much of anything channel 2 says!


----------



## smokey30725

We're giving it all we have up here!


----------



## Matthew6

smokey30725 said:


> We're giving it all we have up here!


----------



## parisinthe20s

Woodstock got a winter warning of 2-4 inches and 6 in the mountains. Only time will tell I suppose


----------



## NCHillbilly

They're calling for up to 10" or so here. It's gonna be a long couple days at work.


----------



## bigdaddyga

Gonna be a bust...


----------



## blood on the ground

All the guest need to sign up! Y'all come join the party!


----------



## 95g atl

shakey gizzard said:


> Channel 2 on board for 3 to 5in, That means 10 to 12!





a foot of snow in north metro?  
There wouldn't be any bread, milk, or eggs at the grocery store for a week after that.


----------



## dsceviour

So just curious on peoples opinions as of right now, bust or not??


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

My local mets map.. Showing snow up in the foothills north.


----------



## GA DAWG

Im thinking rain. Gonna be to warm. This is GA.


----------



## blondiega1

dsceviour said:


> So just curious on peoples opinions as of right now, bust or not??



Any other time I'd be all about 4-6 inches of snow, but not THIS time.i got a motorhome I want to bring home!!!

Guess we are all waiting and watching.


----------



## 95g atl

blondiega1 said:


> but not THIS time.i got a motorhome I want to bring home!!!


that's gonna be fun.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> All the guest need to sign up! Y'all come join the party!



207 (85 members and 122 guests)
Lots of ghost. It's warm around the campfire. Back to the weather....... Georgia's upcoming weather was on World News Tonight.


----------



## blondiega1

95g atl said:


> that's gonna be fun.



At this point, it's probably not happening.
Just wait and get it Saturday.


----------



## keithsto

GA DAWG said:


> Im thinking rain. Gonna be to warm. This is GA.



Most places did not come close to their forecast highs today.  Maybe the cold will stay around through tomorrow as well.


----------



## stuart smith

I say not a bust.It may not snow IMBY,but its going to lay it down somewheres in GA.


----------



## DEERFU

keithsto said:


> Most places did not come close to their forecast highs today.  Maybe the cold will stay around through tomorrow as well.



This is true! What happened to highs near 50 and sun melting all the snow.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I know I'll be getting cold rain in the CSRA. My wife is in ATL for a conference until after lunch tommorow so Im watching this thread closely. When she gets out of that rat race, I'll be rooting for ya'll to get a deludge of the white stuff!! It's fun to watch but I'm just about ready for spring. I'm pulling HARD for ya'll snow lovers!


----------



## DDD

Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...


----------



## jbird1

It all comes down to where the low forms and where it tracks...that's why everyone is grasping at straws.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...



Good cause my bed time is 8pm. Then I get the white screen at 330 am


----------



## elandil

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...



You have 200 folks waiting lol. These threads trip me out


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...


----------



## davidhelmly

Migmack said:


> Good cause my bed time is 8pm. Then I get the white screen at 330 am



My schedule exactly!


----------



## Trigabby

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...



Ok... Waiting patiently.. While, I'm loading the truck to head to camp to put out deer cams and pick up the ATV so I can get back before the possible festivities start tonight.  Why am I bring the 4Wheeler back?  To ride the 70 miles of streets in my subdivision in 6"s of snow?  NO... I'm going to change the oil in it.  Should I happen to be able to ride around in the snow is just a bonus, so there.

C'mon RGEM!!!


----------



## orrb

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...


----------



## FlyDawg72

I have about 30 people to disseminate information to, I used to fight it and just send them to Weather Underground, but I can only take so many "Hey, what's your Weather Guy saying?"


----------



## Mike 65

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...



Thanks  
Really didn't want to stay up that late.
And thanks for good work. 

Also if you would push it south we really need a good snow in Henry county for a change.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Itll be on us before rush hour folks. Per channel 9 in chattanooga


----------



## parisinthe20s

What happened to 6 +inches? What a bummer. I still have the warning for Woodstock but you guys are bringing me down


----------



## Lee

I send it out to family and friends too... Now they text me asking what he's saying. My response... "My weather guy says"

But that @gonweatherguy is blowing up on Twitter.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

222 viewing...WOW


----------



## DouglasB.

234


----------



## smokey30725

dumb question, but how do you find the number of viewers?


----------



## DouglasB.

Someone rang the dinner bell.... 244 now!!


----------



## DouglasB.

smokey30725 said:


> dumb question, but how do you find the number of viewers?



Scroll down to the bottom. Shows you a list of who's viewing, and tells you how many guests are on the thread.


----------



## Swampslayr

The suspense is Killing me... Every meteorologist on TV says something different!


----------



## WoodsmanEd

And climbing......


----------



## smokey30725

DouglasB. said:


> Scroll down to the bottom. Shows you a list of who's viewing, and tells you how many guests are on the thread.



Well, doggone. I feel like a moron.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, I'm going to assume this one will wind up winter 2014-2015?


----------



## WoodsmanEd

smokey30725 said:


> Well, doggone. I feel like a moron.



Don't feel that way now the only dumb question was the one never asked


----------



## gasman26

I still have at least a couple inches imby in northern union county. If we get 10+ inches we will have snow on the ground for a week.


----------



## FlyDawg72

WoodsmanEd said:


> Don't feel that way now the only dumb question was the one never asked



I used to think that was the case, but it seems EVERY DAY someone proves me wrong.


----------



## jsullivan03

FlyDawg72 said:


> I used to think that was the case, but it seems EVERY DAY someone proves me wrong.



I'll quit asking you questions....


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> Alright... can't wait until 10... writing now...


----------



## doenightmare

smokey30725 said:


> Well, doggone. I feel like a moron.



How long you been here?


----------



## 1john4:4

Gov. Deal has declared a state of emergence for 50 counties. One of them being mine!


----------



## elandil

WoodsmanEd said:


> Don't feel that way now the only dumb question was the one never asked



Spend a day doing CS at my job, you will quickly retract that statement...


----------



## PappyHoel

1john4:4 said:


> Gov. Deal has declared a state of emergence for 50 counties. One of them being mine!



For cold rain?


----------



## smokey30725

doenightmare said:


> How long you been here?



Long enough that I should have known what all the fancy numbers were at the bottom, lol.


----------



## FlyDawg72

jsullivan03 said:


> I'll quit asking you questions....



Hey Man... Aren't you in the wrong state to be sniffing around the Winter Weather thread?


----------



## Milkman

smokey30725 said:


> Well, doggone. I feel like a moron.



Have you ever used the "user cp" button at the top?  That shows all your subscribed threads that have had posts since you logged on last.  When you open the thread you can click on "view first unread" and it will take you to the first post made since you were at that thread last time.


----------



## smokey30725

Milkman said:


> Have you ever used the "user cp" button at the top?  That shows all your subscribed threads that have had posts since you logged on last.  When you open the thread you can click on "view first unread" and it will take you to the first post made since you were at that thread last time.



I haven't but thanks for letting me know about it. I usually don't lurk this much, but weather stuff makes a nerd out of me.


----------



## bigox911




----------



## jsullivan03

FlyDawg72 said:


> Hey Man... Aren't you in the wrong state to be sniffing around the Winter Weather thread?



I've got family up in those parts with a brand new nephew in the hospital. I may be down here now but I still have to tell them what's coming.


----------



## fussyray

267


----------



## Paymaster

smokey30725 said:


> Long enough that I should have known what all the fancy numbers were at the bottom, lol.



Don't worry bout it Smokey, I just learned this week that the F5 key refreshes! I been here forever. 

DDD, yo fans await!


----------



## GA DAWG

297 waiting on the gon weatherman.


----------



## Matthew6

276


----------



## shakey gizzard

Paymaster said:


> Don't worry bout it Smokey, I just learned this week that the F5 key refreshes! I been here forever.
> 
> DDD, yo fans await!



Bonus tip!


----------



## Goddard

284  The suspense is killing me.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

284 and climbing...Now that is a audience


----------



## the prospector

300....boom


----------



## DouglasB.

294


----------



## parisinthe20s

The suspense is killing me. Fox5 still says 2-4 inches and maybe 10 in the mountains..but I guess you have to take that with a grain of salt


----------



## Ricky

now if we can just run the post count up to 1000 maybe he'll speak


----------



## Dustin Pate

Folks please quit posting member numbers and keep the thread on topic.


----------



## 91xjgawes

Wow.....anyway.

Can't wait to hear the deal.


----------



## bigdaddyga

bigox911 said:


>



Pass me some of that kone...dawg.


----------



## DDD

So this is one is tough.  I mean really tough.

When I started making the rounds on the weather models this morning I was convinced Atlanta up to Gainesville was going to get plastered.  Mountains... just hammered.  But now... I am second guessing myself.  Mainly because the NAM model and some other short range models are not pulling the temps down below freezing.  What I keep telling myself though is that history tells me how this thing is going to perform.  

There is a real battle going on in my mind.  Do I hug the models and say... unfortunately... she's going north?  Or do I listen to the voice of reason in my head?  Tough to call.  

These upper level lows do not perform like a normal snow event.  They bring their own cold with them.  Dynamic cooling takes place and litteraly it's raining outside your window one minute and it's snowing the next.  Also, there will be heavy "banding" somewhere in N. GA.  You will see on my map below where I think that area will be.  North of the snow/rain line will be all snow.  South of the rain/snow line... you guessed it... all rain.  There will be a very thin line in that same area of sleet and freezing rain, but in my mind I only see it 10-20 miles wide, so the ice threat is very minimal.  You either have snow or rain.  Those are your choices.  Tomorrow will hurt someone's feelings.  It will be all rain at your house and your friend 10 miles north of you will call you and tell you there is 4" of snow on the ground.  

Every MET on TV is going to say something different.  I do not envy them one bit.  These systems will cause major egg on face.  I may get it on mine for sure, but I am going tell you all what I think.

Let's get to it.

Area 1:  This area should feel most confident about getting snow.  Almost all models I have looked at even the short range models and you guys get snow.  Sure... depending on which model some show 2" in NW GA some show 4" in NW and super heavy in NE GA.  Going up 441 to me is where the really heavy stuff will fall.  8"+ up that way.  NW GA... I would say a solid 3".  I grouped that whole area together, but for sure the mountain areas will get "lift".  The Lift will make snow rates crazy.

Area 2 (Green Box):  Oh boy.  This is the crazy part.  I want to say that this area is set for snow... but it's not.  It's the battle ground and it's the holy land all in one.  In this green box is where the HEAVY banding of moisture will bring down some serious snow and it will pile up quick and fast.  Also, this will be, especially where the southern side of the green box in my mind is having mixing issues.  Snowing one minute, raining the next and 10 minutes later snowing again.  I think the green box will average 2-3" some will seem 4" and some will only see 1".

Area 3:  I'm sorry guys.  It's going to be mostly rain unless something crazy happens.  Also in this area I will mention the RED BOX.

RED BOX:  This is what I am terming the box of tears.    You will be so close you can hear about it just up the road.  Your FB friends will be screaming about snow and you will be crying about rain.  33° rain.

Now... This thinking in my mind could shift 50 miles north or south.  

Last thing I will say that gives me some hope is where the NAM and other models have the Low Pressure tracking.  It tracks it in the exact same places it has before and that is across the panhandle of Florida and up the East Coast.  That is why I have a hard time believing the temps that the NAM spits out.  I really want to believe it is showing some warm bias that is really not going to be real.

Again, I am not a professional.  Those guys that went to school and got the education have earned their respect.  I am just an amateur that has a serious winter weather addiction.  So take it for what it's worth.

Do the happy dance, flame away, cry or cuss... this is just my guess.


----------



## RinggoldGa

WxSouth just posted a map.  He went big.


----------



## Lukikus2

Rain down here in Central Fl. until Monday. Going to be a mess up there. Be safe.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, you've earned the respect of everyone on here with your past performance. We've still got your back either way. In your semi-divine judgement, is this the last gasp of this winter or could there be a March surprise? Either way, rest easy knowing that you ARE THE MAN.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Jet stream running up from the gulf at the fall line isn't allowing the temps to go below freezing.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD, didn't mean to post that on top of you like that.  Was just handing out eye candy while we waited on you.


----------



## PappyHoel

I'm stuck in no mans land between area 1 and 2 in Dawsonville.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Sees I'm in red box.....(goes in corner and pouts and cries)


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

RinggoldGa said:


> WxSouth just posted a map.  He went big.



That map puts me in the white


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Good write up DDD. I'll be watching tommorow to see how it turns out!


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> So this is one is tough.  I mean really tough.
> 
> When I started making the rounds on the weather models this morning I was convinced Atlanta up to Gainesville was going to get plastered.  Mountains... just hammered.  But now... I am second guessing myself.  Mainly because the NAM model and some other short range models are not pulling the temps down below freezing.  What I keep telling myself though is that history tells me how this thing is going to perform.
> 
> There is a real battle going on in my mind.  Do I hug the models and say... unfortunately... she's going north?  Or do I listen to the voice of reason in my head?  Tough to call.
> 
> These upper level lows do not perform like a normal snow event.  They bring their own cold with them.  Dynamic cooling takes place and litteraly it's raining outside your window one minute and it's snowing the next.  Also, there will be heavy "banding" somewhere in N. GA.  You will see on my map below where I think that area will be.  North of the snow/rain line will be all snow.  South of the rain/snow line... you guessed it... all rain.  There will be a very thin line in that same area of sleet and freezing rain, but in my mind I only see it 10-20 miles wide, so the ice threat is very minimal.  You either have snow or rain.  Those are your choices.  Tomorrow will hurt someone's feelings.  It will be all rain at your house and your friend 10 miles north of you will call you and tell you there is 4" of snow on the ground.
> 
> Every MET on TV is going to say something different.  I do not envy them one bit.  These systems will cause major egg on face.  I may get it on mine for sure, but I am going tell you all what I think.
> 
> Let's get to it.
> 
> Area 1:  This area should feel most confident about getting snow.  Almost all models I have looked at even the short range models and you guys get snow.  Sure... depending on which model some show 2" in NW GA some show 4" in NW and super heavy in NE GA.  Going up 441 to me is where the really heavy stuff will fall.  8"+ up that way.  NW GA... I would say a solid 3".  I grouped that whole area together, but for sure the mountain areas will get "lift".  The Lift will make snow rates crazy.
> 
> Area 2 (Green Box):  Oh boy.  This is the crazy part.  I want to say that this area is set for snow... but it's not.  It's the battle ground and it's the holy land all in one.  In this green box is where the HEAVY banding of moisture will bring down some serious snow and it will pile up quick and fast.  Also, this will be, especially where the southern side of the green box in my mind is having mixing issues.  Snowing one minute, raining the next and 10 minutes later snowing again.  I think the green box will average 2-3" some will seem 4" and some will only see 1".
> 
> Area 3:  I'm sorry guys.  It's going to be mostly rain unless something crazy happens.  Also in this area I will mention the RED BOX.
> 
> RED BOX:  This is what I am terming the box of tears.    You will be so close you can hear about it just up the road.  Your FB friends will be screaming about snow and you will be crying about rain.  33° rain.
> 
> Now... This thinking in my mind could shift 50 miles north or south.
> 
> Last thing I will say that gives me some hope is where the NAM and other models have the Low Pressure tracking.  It tracks it in the exact same places it has before and that is across the panhandle of Florida and up the East Coast.  That is why I have a hard time believing the temps that the NAM spits out.  I really want to believe it is showing some warm bias that is really not going to be real.
> 
> Again, I am not a professional.  Those guys that went to school and got the education have earned their respect.  I am just an amateur that has a serious winter weather addiction.  So take it for what it's worth.
> 
> Do the happy dance, flame away, cry or cuss... this is just my guess.



Fair enough. I'm right in the middle of the Green box in Zone 2. It could be flip or fly depending on the temps when the moisture gets here.

Ole Man Winter done gave you a hard time this year Dropper.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Migmack said:


> That map puts me in the white



I'll be surprised if the white comes near us. We'll just have to wait and see what it does! Ground truth time!!


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> DDD, you've earned the respect of everyone on here with your past performance. We've still got your back either way. In your semi-divine judgement, is this the last gasp of this winter or could there be a March surprise? Either way, rest easy knowing that you ARE THE MAN.



Thanks man!  I enjoyed the pic of the dogs!  Made me laugh.

I don't think it's done.  The long range models show a slight warm up and then a huge push of super cold air back in here in the 10-14 day range.


----------



## grunt0331

Any guesses as to the timing?


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Thanks man!  I enjoyed the pic of the dogs!  Made me laugh.
> 
> I don't think it's done.  The long range models show a slight warm up and then a huge push of super cold air back in here in the 10-14 day range.



you just gave three beagles the vapors


----------



## GA DAWG

Welp. Im in the holy land. I'll be watching for it. Thanks DDD.


----------



## RE185

Thanks  for all the research and data DDD.


----------



## Paymaster

I am upper west Red Box! Don't matter, I am headed North to Pigeon Forge Thursday. Lord Willin I won't slide into a ditch. I will see some snow, if not snow bound !!!!


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> DDD, didn't mean to post that on top of you like that.  Was just handing out eye candy while we waited on you.



Don't apologize!  I am a member on Robert's site.  I looked there before I made my write up but I had not seen that map.  Actually, I was glad to see it!!!  He and I are in the same line of thinking.   

I personally think if I was a local TV or radio guy I would go super conservative tonight.  It's easy to ramp up the totals and be "surprised".  Everyone wants to shoot you if you say 8"+++ and then it rains.  People will make hate websites over stuff like that.


----------



## DDD

grunt0331 said:


> Any guesses as to the timing?



Depending on location West to East.  Starting around 4PM on the West side moving East.  If I lived North of the perimeter I would be headed out of the office in ATL by 3PM.


----------



## dsceviour

DDD what's your honest opinion of Gwinnett County, rain or snow?


----------



## Nicodemus

Thanks for your reports, DDD. We appreciate em down here too.


----------



## keithsto

So, if I am in the overlap of green & red, it could be a few inches, or it could be a cold rain?


----------



## JosephSparks

This is what I feel like when I see this stuff


----------



## parisinthe20s

One of the greatest movies of all time.that made me laugh. Sorry Not weather related but I had to say it


----------



## kescj

Thank you for all you do DDD!


----------



## JosephSparks

Spann just posted the Canadian model. Just model output not forecast.


----------



## DDD

keithsto said:


> So, if I am in the overlap of green & red, it could be a few inches, or it could be a cold rain?



Yep.  The other thing about that area is where that solid "changeover" is, it will be heavy!  If you land the big one... buy a lottery ticket IMO.



JosephSparks said:


> This is what I feel like when I see this stuff


LOL!!!!



elandil said:


> Any chances of it hitting earlier? I gotta leave Calhoun/Adairsville around 11 and head to kennesaw for work.



Not that early.



parisinthe20s said:


> One of the greatest movies of all time.that made me laugh. Sorry Not weather related but I had to say it



Dude... that was funny and the Forrest Gump stuff makes me crack up every time.


----------



## keithsto

JosephSparks said:


> Spann just posted the Canadian model. Just model output not forecast.



Lines up pretty dang close with DDD's map.


----------



## DDD

JosephSparks said:


> Spann just posted the Canadian model. Just model output not forecast.



Thanks for posting that!  Like I said earlier today... I want to hug the Canadian model!!!!


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Welp. Im in the holy land. I'll be watching for it. Thanks DDD.



Text me when you have all snow and we get all rain 5 miles away straight line distance.


----------



## JosephSparks

DDD said:


> Thanks for posting that!  Like I said earlier today... I want to hug the Canadian model!!!!



Me too. Selfishly, It puts me in a sweeter spot than the others!


----------



## doenightmare

Thanks 3D - you're awesome. I was kiddin' bout the diva thing.


----------



## DDD

I feel like I got something off my chest.  LOL!!!!!  Now we can just see what happens....


----------



## DaisyJo

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  Thanks DDD! I'll be on my knees praying tonight. I REALLY need me some serious snow.


----------



## elandil

Makes me wanna burst out singing "O Canada."


But my coworkers already think i'm crazy as it is....


----------



## Hooked On Quack

330 DDD groupies !!


----------



## JosephSparks

I would like to say this, the winter weather thread has been really cordial, good natured and just plain fun to look at over the past few weeks. Sometimes on message boards threads get negative really quickly and it doesn't happen here. Cheers everyone!


----------



## Crickett

Dustin Pate said:


> Folks please quit posting member numbers and keep the thread on topic.





Hooked On Quack said:


> 330 DDD groupies !!


----------



## asdgirl

Yep Gov Deal, as someone mentioned has declared a state of emergency for 50 counties. He says all government offices in affected counties must be closed BY NOON. He's hoping to keep traffic crazy to a minimum. Ha! Fat chance. I'm going in at 6a and leaving at 10a. At least I'll get some hours in. If this misses Stone Mountain, as it seems to ALWAYS (except last year!), I'm going to be crying all over this thread (well, the next one). See Yall tomorrow!!!!


----------



## DouglasB.

Well crap. 

That's just one more that I got all excited about for nuttin. 

I'm moving to Idaho within the next year anyways... so I'll send some love from the great white north from time to time.


----------



## alligood729

Well......I'm always in the "red box"......I hope it moves south about 10 miles. My girls want to see snow on the ground in Social Circle....


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD you do a great job. You must have an amazing wife. You spend so much time informing us on the weather. We are all glad she lets you do what you love with weather watching. Most people are spending time with their family's and you are here. I would take your weather knowledge over any of oir tv weather guys.  I am looking forward to what tomorrow brings. I am between line 1 and 2. I am 6 mins from ballground.


----------



## Milkman

Link to the Governors state of emergency counties.  Lots of folks will be leaving work and school due to this.

http://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2015-02-24/deal-state-emergency-begin-2-pm


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Milkman said:


> Link to the Governors state of emergency counties.  Lots of folks will be leaving work and school due to this.
> 
> http://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2015-02-24/deal-state-emergency-begin-2-pm



My wife is in Newnan and I suggested she cancel her meeting and head back to Thomson. Traffic will be crazy! I don't envy ya'll who drive in it everyday.


----------



## cmarkwillix

It's clear starry skies on Vinson Mtn south of Rockmart. And very cold.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

alligood729 said:


> Well......I'm always in the "red box"......I hope it moves south about 10 miles. My girls want to see snow on the ground in Social Circle....



I didn't make any box at all. Just cold rain in east central GA


----------



## PappyHoel

Just got word offices will close early tomorrow.  We were told to work remotely if there is no pressing issue to be in the office.


----------



## nickel back

Crack rock storm.......


----------



## Robbie101

The Messican just said mostly rain!


----------



## Robbie101

Until later in the evening that is.


----------



## PappyHoel

Robbie101 said:


> The Messican just said mostly rain!



He just wants severe weather


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Crickett said:


>





My bad, din't see DP's post.


----------



## Robbie101

PappyHoel said:


> He just wants severe weather



True dat lolol


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Well since the mountains appear to be the winner in this,  Me and the boys might just have to make a Road trip and head toward Helen for a lot of snow and fun


----------



## stuart smith

I am still holding onto hopes that the snow comes a little bit further south.I have seen way too many 33*degrees and rainy days in my time.Thanks DDD for your dedication to the winter weather thread!I am a big fan.Just hope you are off by 30 miles...


----------



## malak05

Surprisingly the NAM came in wetter and crushing 278 north with 5-8 inches from West to East... still lower numbers around I20 BUT big BUT the temps were colder then previous run just not completely there yet so that's a good thing though


----------



## blondiega1

Well my sinuses are predicting major wet stuff coming.
Rain or snow remains to be seen.


----------



## stuart smith

malak05 said:


> Surprisingly the NAM came in wetter and crushing 278 north with 5-8 inches from West to East... still lower numbers around I20 BUT big BUT the temps were colder then previous run just not completely there yet so that's a good thing though



I like it.


----------



## orrb

malak05 said:


> Surprisingly the NAM came in wetter and crushing 278 north with 5-8 inches from West to East... still lower numbers around I20 BUT big BUT the temps were colder then previous run just not completely there yet so that's a good thing though



sad face, i am in south paulding.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Thanks for the heads up on the state of emergency. My wife's meeting is now cancelled and she heading out early in the morning. I informed her from ya'lls posts.


----------



## todd03blown

malak05 said:


> Surprisingly the NAM came in wetter and crushing 278 north with 5-8 inches from West to East... still lower numbers around I20 BUT big BUT the temps were colder then previous run just not completely there yet so that's a good thing though



Yep.

WXSouth just updated things.


----------



## Priest

Yes the NAM is North.....but the NAM is still wrong on temps. Looking at the 00Z run it showed 00Z and +3 with me sitting at 40+ degrees here in Hiram....never once got above 35 todat and have been below freezing since 20:15.  Out here to the West, we are colder than the NAM thinks, have been for days.  I think the NAM isnt handling the temps right.

It may be wishfull thinking, but I am hugging the Canadian too just because the temps


----------



## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> Yep.
> 
> WXSouth just updated things.



Bring on the thunder snow.  I haven't heard any since the blizzard of '93


----------



## adavis

DC on Fox5 just said he is leaning toward a big event. He said 7 plus around north metro. Said it will be starting sooner and lasting longer. He went out on a big limb just now!


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Yep.
> 
> WXSouth just updated things.



Yep.  I have said... if anyone in the SE knows how to predict these things... he is the man!


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## deerbandit

Ok what does Wxsouth mean by Very concerned for the North Side of Atlanta were dynamic cooling will mean wet or white? Does that mean rain or snow or major snow?


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## smokey30725

NW GA still looking good, right?


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## toyota4x4h

Nw ga hasnt been out of any models yet. We will see snow for sure.


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## Keebs

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD you do a great job. You must have an amazing wife. You spend so much time informing us on the weather. We are all glad she lets you do what you love with weather watching. Most people are spending time with their family's and you are here. I would take your weather knowledge over any of oir tv weather guys.  I am looking forward to what tomorrow brings. I am between line 1 and 2. I am 6 mins from ballground.


AMEN, DDD has a very understanding family.......... I am "ALWAYS" left out of the "white stuff" but I follow him anyway, just so I'm *in the know*! Thanks DDD!


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## smokey30725

It's alright by me if more snow wants to come, lol.


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## PappyHoel

smokey30725 said:


> NW GA still looking good, right?



You should fire up the beagles just to be safe.  Throw in a thunder snow twerk


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## orrb

PappyHoel said:


> You should fire up the beagles just to be safe.  Throw in a thunder snow twerk



DO IT> DO IT> DO IT..  Make those doggies dance.


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## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Yep.  I have said... if anyone in the SE knows how to predict these things... he is the man!



1a - Robert
1b - DDD


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## DDD

Gwinnett Schools Closed tomorrow


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## deerbandit

DDD can you answer this for me please? I'm in Dallas and trying to figure all this out for tomorrow. Where Wxsouth says north side of Atlanta does that mean north Fulton or north counties?


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## BuckinFish

DDD you're good, David Chandley just put a visual of exactly what you said about area 2.  Been listening to you since last winter and am slowly getting my colleagues to believe your magic.  Thanks for the info!  Ball Ground gonna get it!!


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## alligood729

DDD said:


> Gwinnett Schools Closed tomorrow



See if you can push the line south a little more, snow in Social Circle please....lol


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## DDD

deerbandit said:


> DDD can you answer this for me please? I'm in Dallas and trying to figure all this out for tomorrow. Where Wxsouth says north side of Atlanta does that mean north Fulton or north counties?



In my mind I draw a line from Marietta to Alpharetta and WEST and EAST from there.... Does that help?


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## Swampslayr

I think David Chandley waited on You DDD to post your forecast before his 10 pm layout! He has went all out!


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## DDD

DDD said:


> In my mind I draw a line from Marietta to Alpharetta and WEST and EAST from there.... Does that help?



And from there south down to downtown.


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## orrb

DDD said:


> In my mind I draw a line from Marietta to Alpharetta and WEST and EAST from there.... Does that help?



think he is asking about Dallas, I am asking about paulding county..


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## deerbandit

DDD said:


> In my mind I draw a line from Marietta to Alpharetta and WEST and EAST from there.... Does that help?



So that means that area might be rain and might be snow and it's the area north of that line correct not south of it but north Atlanta? Man I suck at this weather stuff.


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## orrb

deerbandit said:


> So that means that area might be rain and might be snow? Man I suck at this weather stuff.



 i am in paulding county,  south side near Rose's store.  I am almost feeling like we are not getting anything.


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## stuart smith

Hope is not lost..Its getting alot colder tonight than I had expected.


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## orrb

31 imby  south paulding


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## Msteele

deerbandit said:


> So that means that area might be rain and might be snow and it's the area north of that line correct not south of it but north Atlanta? Man I suck at this weather stuff.



Dallas is going to get nailed!


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## stuart smith

Its possible this thing will really put on a show!


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## dsceviour

What about gwinnett??


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## jbird1

DDD said:


> In my mind I draw a line from Marietta to Alpharetta and WEST and EAST from there.... Does that help?



It's kind of funny you say that.  I drove through that area around 8ish this morning on 400 and it was by far the heaviest snow I encountered coming from Forsyth-
Dawson line going to Northside Hospital.  I get this hunch that the areas affected this morning will be the same general areas affected most tomorrow.

That's how my brain works anyway.


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## stuart smith

dsceviour said:


> What about gwinnett??



You're good.


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## orrb

Msteele said:


> Dallas is going to get nailed!



does that include south west Pauling, corner of hwy 101 and 120 and 120 (Buchanan hwy) union area

I am sorry for asking a IMBY question.


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## Priest

DDD, any thoughts on what I posted a bit above about that NAM being lost on the actual temps right now?  3 good thermometers here reading 30, 30.1, and 30.


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## cliffdweller

Growing up in Fannin I have seen a few of these type snows... this thing is gonna dump if it gets going.  Heavy big flakes that fall as fast as rain.  I bet that area around Canton, Dawsonville, Gainesville, pile...it...up...Thundersnow not out of the question.  Get ready!!!


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## deerbandit

orrb said:


> think he is asking about paulding county



I am asking about Dallas, I've been looking at these models and trying read what everyone says but I just get confused even more.


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## PappyHoel

jbird1 said:


> It's kind of funny you say that.  I drove through that area around 8ish this morning on 400 and it was by far the heaviest snow I encountered coming from Forsyth-
> Dawson line going to Northside Hospital.  I get this hunch that the areas affected this morning will be the same general areas affected most tomorrow.
> 
> That's how my brain works anyway.



Wasn't bad when I drove in this morning but heavy snow till I got to exit 12 on 400.


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## deerbandit

Msteele said:


> Dallas is going to get nailed!



Why do you say that? I want a good snow but really wanting to see how the information is gathered, how you came up with that so maybe I can learn something.


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## orrb

deerbandit said:


> I am asking about Dallas, I've been looking at these models and trying read what everyone says but I just get confused even more.



msteele says, 





Msteele said:


> Dallas is going to get nailed!



What do you think 3D?   

Thank you for all the work  you do 3D.


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## cliffdweller

I think Nelson, Ballground, Cumming, Canton are ground zero...pounded!!


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## PappyHoel

DDD


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## todd03blown

deerbandit said:


> Why do you say that? I want a good snow but really wanting to see how the information is gathered, how you came up with that so maybe I can learn something.



Dallas is covered in DDD's writeup from earlier. Green area on map.

Area 2 (Green Box): Oh boy. This is the crazy part. I want to say that this area is set for snow... but it's not. It's the battle ground and it's the holy land all in one. In this green box is where the HEAVY banding of moisture will bring down some serious snow and it will pile up quick and fast. Also, this will be, especially where the southern side of the green box in my mind is having mixing issues. Snowing one minute, raining the next and 10 minutes later snowing again. I think the green box will average 2-3" some will seem 4" and some will only see 1".


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## jbird1

PappyHoel said:


> Wasn't bad when I drove in this morning but heavy snow till I got to exit 12 on 400.



From about the river to Abernathy was super heavy snow a little after 8.  I believe that was near the rain-snow line at that time.  Where the changeover happens is gonna get pummeled with super wet and heavy snow.


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## doenightmare

Special Weather Statement 11:00 PM 2/24/15

West parts of North GA wil be cut off from snow by a high pressure barometric  inversion.  Included are the counties of Paulding........


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## dsceviour

Was gwinnett county in area 2? It looked like between area 2 and 3, can anyone give me a prediction for gwinnett?


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## orrb

doenightmare said:


> Special Weather Statement 11:00 PM 2/24/15
> 
> West parts of North GA wil be cut off from snow by a high pressure barometric  inversion.  Included are the counties of Paulding........



I love you honey..  



  To dang funny.


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## Crickett

I'm pretty sure I heard David Chandley say he was leaning more toward worst case scenario when he posted up his 2nd map.


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## cliffdweller

Dad gummit...the old HPBI, the nemesis of NW Georgia snow.  Maybe next go round...hilarious rite there.


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## orrb

cliffdweller said:


> Dad gummit...the old HPBI, the nemesis of NW Georgia snow.  Maybe next go round...hilarious rite there.



I know, I loved it.  I  LMBO 

You guys are great..


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## DDD

DDD said:


> So this is one is tough.  I mean really tough.
> 
> When I started making the rounds on the weather models this morning I was convinced Atlanta up to Gainesville was going to get plastered.  Mountains... just hammered.  But now... I am second guessing myself.  Mainly because the NAM model and some other short range models are not pulling the temps down below freezing.  What I keep telling myself though is that history tells me how this thing is going to perform.
> 
> There is a real battle going on in my mind.  Do I hug the models and say... unfortunately... she's going north?  Or do I listen to the voice of reason in my head?  Tough to call.
> 
> These upper level lows do not perform like a normal snow event.  They bring their own cold with them.  Dynamic cooling takes place and litteraly it's raining outside your window one minute and it's snowing the next.  Also, there will be heavy "banding" somewhere in N. GA.  You will see on my map below where I think that area will be.  North of the snow/rain line will be all snow.  South of the rain/snow line... you guessed it... all rain.  There will be a very thin line in that same area of sleet and freezing rain, but in my mind I only see it 10-20 miles wide, so the ice threat is very minimal.  You either have snow or rain.  Those are your choices.  Tomorrow will hurt someone's feelings.  It will be all rain at your house and your friend 10 miles north of you will call you and tell you there is 4" of snow on the ground.
> 
> Every MET on TV is going to say something different.  I do not envy them one bit.  These systems will cause major egg on face.  I may get it on mine for sure, but I am going tell you all what I think.
> 
> Let's get to it.
> 
> Area 1:  This area should feel most confident about getting snow.  Almost all models I have looked at even the short range models and you guys get snow.  Sure... depending on which model some show 2" in NW GA some show 4" in NW and super heavy in NE GA.  Going up 441 to me is where the really heavy stuff will fall.  8"+ up that way.  NW GA... I would say a solid 3".  I grouped that whole area together, but for sure the mountain areas will get "lift".  The Lift will make snow rates crazy.
> 
> Area 2 (Green Box):  Oh boy.  This is the crazy part.  I want to say that this area is set for snow... but it's not.  It's the battle ground and it's the holy land all in one.  In this green box is where the HEAVY banding of moisture will bring down some serious snow and it will pile up quick and fast.  Also, this will be, especially where the southern side of the green box in my mind is having mixing issues.  Snowing one minute, raining the next and 10 minutes later snowing again.  I think the green box will average 2-3" some will seem 4" and some will only see 1".
> 
> Area 3:  I'm sorry guys.  It's going to be mostly rain unless something crazy happens.  Also in this area I will mention the RED BOX.
> 
> RED BOX:  This is what I am terming the box of tears.    You will be so close you can hear about it just up the road.  Your FB friends will be screaming about snow and you will be crying about rain.  33° rain.
> 
> Now... This thinking in my mind could shift 50 miles north or south.
> 
> Last thing I will say that gives me some hope is where the NAM and other models have the Low Pressure tracking.  It tracks it in the exact same places it has before and that is across the panhandle of Florida and up the East Coast.  That is why I have a hard time believing the temps that the NAM spits out.  I really want to believe it is showing some warm bias that is really not going to be real.
> 
> Again, I am not a professional.  Those guys that went to school and got the education have earned their respect.  I am just an amateur that has a serious winter weather addiction.  So take it for what it's worth.
> 
> Do the happy dance, flame away, cry or cuss... this is just my guess.



Re-post for the slackers.


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## RUTTNBUCK

dsceviour said:


> What about gwinnett??



http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=9331255&postcount=831


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## stuart smith

doenightmare said:


> Special Weather Statement 11:00 PM 2/24/15
> 
> West parts of North GA wil be cut off from snow by a high pressure barometric  inversion.  Included are the counties of Paulding........



Thats a rare event33 degrees IMBY


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## DDD

dsceviour said:


> Was gwinnett county in area 2? It looked like between area 2 and 3, can anyone give me a prediction for gwinnett?



Dude... we are in that so-so area.  I would love to tell you that you will have 6" of snow this time tomorrow but there is no promises here.

I think we are good for 4" but that all depends on dynamic cooling... gotta just hide and watch.

Sometimes more hide than watch.


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## Matthew6

Crickett said:


> I'm pretty sure I heard David Chandley say he was leaning more toward worst case scenario when he posted up his 2nd map.



yes he did.


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## dsceviour

Looks lie all rain over in Grayson area


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## DDD

Oh boy... someone has turned into the Ken Cook of forecasting....


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## doenightmare

DDD said:


> gotta just hide and watch.
> 
> Sometimes more hide than watch.


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## Sugar Plum

DDD said:


> Re-post for the slackers.



Thanks. Wasn't slacking, was trying to filter through numerous pages of drivel. Man, I get excited about the weather too, but when you're ready for bed after a long day of work, and just want to see a weather update, it's a pain to scroll through all that!

Thanks for the news DDD. Looks like we're in it for nothing but rain. Kids won't be happy, but I can live with it.


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## stuart smith

I'm signing off for now.Heres to Snow for all!!!


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## Dutch

Thankfully I live WAY below the red box...ya'll can keep all that frozen crap up there. Enjoy.


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## WoodsmanEd

Well I am Booked at the Quality Inn in Helen Ga , So Huntinlady 74 The boys and Myself are ready for Snow and fun.  Will do my best to give a ground report or two and will post some pics when the heavy snow begins. Headed out from Lagrange about 8 am so check in with yall tomorrow evening.


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## chewy32

Assuming you meant 411 on area 1 ? Pretty excited hopefully we'll get out of work that first stormed missed us second shifters


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## DCHunter

WoodsmanEd said:


> Well I am Booked at the Quality Inn in Helen Ga , So Huntinlady 74 The boys and Myself are ready for Snow and fun.  Will do my best to give a ground report or two and will post some pics when the heavy snow begins. Headed out from Lagrange about 8 am so check in with yall tomorrow evening.



The snow is going to be south of helen.


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## blood on the ground

27 and heavy fog here in the 30132


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## WoodsmanEd

DCHunter said:


> The snow is going to be south of helen.



Man I hope Not... But if so,  it will still be nice to get away and see some different scenery.  Hoping DDD Map holds true for some snow anyway.  We will just have to see what develops.


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## mike3ga8

Longtime follower, first time poster. Looks like euro was good last night and the nam looks like it came in colder and more south? I'm sitting in DDDs green box in very NW corner of paulding county in Yorkville.


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## nickel back

sure do wish this storm could have come in last night, it would have been a major hit for Central Ga.

anyways the temp here in BARNESVILLE is 30.9

for those that missed the link to check temps in your area
here you go

http://weather.uga.edu/


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## malak05

Last night's Euro came in colder and south if comes true One new Fox 5 lead weather guy will be looking pretty good

And this morning NAM colder and a tick south crusher between 20 and 278


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## cmarkwillix

mike3ga8 said:


> Longtime follower, first time poster. Looks like euro was good last night and the nam looks like it came in colder and more south? I'm sitting in DDDs green box in very NW corner of paulding county in Yorkville.



Howdy, Neighbor. Howdy


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## malak05

The total Euro...very nice


----------



## RE185

Weather Channel says 31at roses store paulding County.my truck says 28.looks like we're going to build a snowman.


----------



## 3ringer

Waiting on a "King D " update.


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## malak05

Cmarkwillix & mike3ga8... just right up road from yall on 278 right past paulding county line


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## nickel back

malak05 said:


> Last night's Euro came in colder and south if comes true One new Fox 5 lead weather guy will be looking pretty good
> 
> And this morning NAM colder and a tick south crusher between 20 and 278



I keep saying it

crack rock storm, you just don't know where it might end up at

still wish it would have come in last night or early this morning


----------



## jf950y

malak05 said:


> Last night's Euro came in colder and south if comes true One new Fox 5 lead weather guy will be looking pretty good
> 
> And this morning NAM colder and a tick south crusher between 20 and 278


Thanks for keeping us posted I have noticed when the thread does not get a post from 3D. Everyone starts panicking and you have seem to help a lot. Thanks


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## GA DAWG

Snow has been put off. Aint even gonna rain.


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## PappyHoel

I'm heading to store to buy milk bread and eggs.  Don't know why but I live in ga and I feel this primeval urge to do so.


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## deerbandit

28 degrees at 6:20am in Dallas.


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## DDD

I will start the next thread as soon as I get to the office.


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## Casey81

PappyHoel said:


> I'm heading to store to buy milk bread and eggs.  Don't know why but I live in ga and I feel this primeval urge to do so.










I'm ready now to convince the boss to close it down early.


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## nickel back

GA DAWG said:


> Snow has been put off. Aint even gonna rain.



....heck I may need a boat to get home from work toady


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## JosephSparks

I like WSBs new approach. Minton is laying out there honestly, some models are giving a dusting and some are giving 8 inches, we just don't know!


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## DDD

Time to lock this one down... Let's bring it home in another thread.


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## DCHunter

WoodsmanEd said:


> Man I hope Not... But if so,  it will still be nice to get away and see some different scenery.  Hoping DDD Map holds true for some snow anyway.  We will just have to see what develops.



Just messin with ya. Hope yall have fun!


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## Patriot44

974


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> I'm heading to store to buy milk bread and eggs.  Don't know why but I live in ga and I feel this primeval urge to do so.



Buy a bunch then we might can sell it later tonight at inflated prices. We will deliver. That will really cost em.


----------

