# Winter Weather 2011-2012  (Version 1)



## DDD (Jul 26, 2011)

OH YEAH!  

Nothing like firing this thing up in July.  It's been so hot, I wanted something to cool us off. 

So here goes.  I am going to look wayyyyyy down the road and give you a little synopsis.

Miguel is onto something.  The sun spots are directly affecting our winters.  Not only that but more importantly the North Atlantic Oscilation.

You can thank the NOA for your snow this past winter.  It was not supposed to happen that way.  You see, global warming was supposed to show up and make it a warm winter.  But some unforsean blocking of cold air up in Canada along with the jet stream, foiled many people's winter forecast.  

After reading blogs this spring and summer and with the long range NAO coming out, along with sun spots on the increase, I think we have returned to the 80's type winters.  We have had 3 measurable snow falls in the last 3 years here in Georgia alone.

I was sent a clip from some economic show where Joe Bistardi was talking to these people about investing in cold weather comodities.  The video is no longer attached to the link otherwise I would post it, but Joe said he thinks we could enter into a "mini - ice age" in the next 10-15 years.  What???  No global warming?  He said that he believes the earth goes through cycles and she entering into a colder than average cycle and that this past winter maybe pointing more towards the "norm" rather than the rare.  He talked about sun spots, solar radiation activity and North Atlantic Oscilations, La Nina, El Nino ect...

The long term NOA models just out two weeks ago are forecasting - NAO which points towards winters much like what we just experienced this past winter.  Also, many believe we will see a mild La Nina winter, that combined with -NAO will no doubt give us multiple shots at the white flakes flying. 

On a personal note, I have absolutely eaten up the last 3 years of winter.  I have went back and read the threads, looked at the number of views / postings.  It's a blast.  Ox and Miguel make it a lot of fun and we all seem to have different sources of information along with insight.  Many times Miguel will call me and give me this or that and it makes me go... ahhh haaa.  But most of all you folks make it fun.  

Whoever had the comment last year, "It's like Forrest Gump... shhh... he's gonna say something!"  Totally cracked me up.  Getting on the WW thread and seeing 100+ viewing the thread was a huge wow factor for me.

As I get more "looks" into the winter weather stuff, I will give this thread a shout.  Let the "wishing" begin.


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## Unicoidawg (Jul 26, 2011)

Bring it on brother. I'm ready for some cooler weather too.


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## david w. (Jul 26, 2011)

..Bring back the 20s and the highs of 50.

And maybe some more of that white stuff.

Oh yeah and why we're at it,maybe some record breaking cold weather......What?Im not asking for much.


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## Jeff C. (Jul 26, 2011)

DDD, is it gonna snow in my backyard?


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## blood on the ground (Jul 26, 2011)

bring it!!! thanks DDD


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## david w. (Jul 26, 2011)

I'll bet that you'll have to start a new thread before winter gets here........


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## Nitram4891 (Jul 26, 2011)

Well if this is what the mini ice age is going to feel like every summer I'm gona pass.


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## fireman401 (Jul 26, 2011)

Is it going to be as cold and wet this winter as it has been hot and DRY this summer?  That's the BIG question.


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## david w. (Jul 26, 2011)

Thats what i want.A cold wet winter.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jul 26, 2011)

fireman402 said:


> Is it going to be as cold and wet this winter as it has been hot and DRY this summer?  That's the BIG question.



You forgot the catch phrase; "in your back yard"...


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## marknga (Jul 26, 2011)

Do we need to start the "in my backyard" reports yet?
OK well then here you go.
A lot moisture and a little wind with like a fine mist falling. I'm afraid that it just ain't gonna drop enough for any of it to switch over to the frozen variety though.


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## fireman401 (Jul 26, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You forgot the catch phrase; "in your back yard"...




Nah......I think I can make it without asking what I will get  "in my backyard?"  Just the chance is enough for me and then I will take the ruler and measure for the total.  Only thing I can say is ....Come on repeat of 1973!


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## bigox911 (Jul 26, 2011)

Who wants to do the play by play on the 0z euro tonight...just to start getting ready anyways


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## SnowHunter (Jul 27, 2011)

Heck, I'm just lookin forward to the first frost 

Bring on da weather!! We're ready


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## Keebs (Jul 27, 2011)

SnowHunter said:


> Heck, I'm just lookin forward to the first frost
> 
> Bring on da weather!! We're ready


X's 2!


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## pbradley (Jul 27, 2011)

I'll be in Orlando next week; do I need to pack my long johns and snow chains?


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## shakey gizzard (Jul 27, 2011)

DDD said:


> OH YEAH!
> 
> Nothing like firing this thing up in July.  It's been so hot, I wanted something to cool us off.
> 
> ...



The black and blue arrows are all wrong! i'll let ya'll know what the woolybears think!


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## Matt.M (Jul 27, 2011)

Truly awesome.

Reading Winter Warning threads definitely adds to the excitement of snow.  My neighbors and co-workers think I'm a winter weather genius.    But we all know Triple D, Miguel and Big Ox deserve all the credit.

Come on negative NOA!!!!!!!


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## bigox911 (Jul 27, 2011)

pbradley said:


> I'll be in Orlando next week; do I need to pack my long johns and snow chains?



What part?  You know these forecasts can change from one county to the next.


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## blood on the ground (Jul 27, 2011)

This is the January snow we had, what a good time. I road from Douglasville to powder springs on fourwheeler.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jul 27, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> What part?  You know these forecasts can change from one county to the next.


Maybe if PB would just tell us who's back yard he'll be in DDD could narrow it down a bit for him!!


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## deerhuntingdawg (Jul 27, 2011)

Looking foward to it guys!!! Especially after this HOT summer
We had three snowfalls in T-town last year and a 6 inch snow the year before. That was over 13 inches in a calendar year!!! Below are the pictures of each one
 1. 12/26/2010-4 inches
2.  01/10/2011-3 inches of ice and snow
3. 02/10/2011-dusting


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## david w. (Jul 27, 2011)

Im ready for it...NOW!!!!!!I love these pics,but im ready to feel it.


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## deermeat270 (Aug 13, 2011)

http://earthrisktech.com/


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## savreds (Aug 14, 2011)

Where's da snow?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Aug 14, 2011)

savreds said:


> Where's da snow?



Canada 

http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/snow_mode...epth/201108/nsm_depth_2011081405_National.jpg


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## savreds (Aug 15, 2011)

I need to see if I can get some of it shipped down here!


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## huntinglady74 (Aug 15, 2011)

IS thinking i'm ready for the Winter!! Bring it on..Can't wait to be glued to the forum to find out what's in store for us and so my family can ask again this year how did you know it was gonna snow...lol..


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

We are getting closer to winter.


Today felt great!!!!!I know summer isn't over yet,But im ready.


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## Rabbit Hunter 101 (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> We are getting closer to winter.
> 
> 
> Today felt great!!!!!




Today did feel great
This weather is making me wish I was sitting in a deer stand.


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Rabbit Hunter 101 said:


> Today did feel great
> This weather is making me wish I was sitting in a deer stand.


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## deermeat270 (Sep 6, 2011)

Walked out of the office this afternoon and was taken aback by the cool weather.


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## Resica (Sep 6, 2011)

david w. said:


> We are getting closer to winter.
> Today felt great!!!!!I know summer isn't over yet,But im ready.



Come on, you guys don't really have a winter!!


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## Nicodemus (Sep 6, 2011)

Resica said:


> Come on, you guys don't really have a winter!!





Hush up!! I`ve been colder in a South Georgia river swamp than I got standin` in knee deep snow at &,000 feet in the northern Colorada Rockies.  

Weathergents, I`d like to go ahead and order up the coldest winter on record for Georgia. I`m in bad need of some cold weather.


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## bml (Sep 6, 2011)

I love cold weather, until it comes time to fill the propane tank.


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## Resica (Sep 6, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Hush up!! I`ve been colder in a South Georgia river swamp than I got standin` in knee deep snow at &,000 feet in the northern Colorada Rockies.
> 
> Weathergents, I`d like to go ahead and order up the coldest winter on record for Georgia. I`m in bad need of some cold weather.


That may be, but normally you folks lose leaves and have a little chill, not really the true winter. We've had over 100 inches of snow recently and we are only 800 something miles from you. I figure 243 will show up and mention 800 inches of snow but he's world's away from us.


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## david w. (Sep 6, 2011)

Resica said:


> Come on, you guys don't really have a winter!!



We're use to 100 degree weather.Give us 50 and its considered winter.



Nicodemus said:


> Hush up!! I`ve been colder in a South Georgia river swamp than I got standin` in knee deep snow at &,000 feet in the northern Colorada Rockies.
> 
> Weathergents, I`d like to go ahead and order up the coldest winter on record for Georgia. I`m in bad need of some cold weather.



Let me get a second order of that nic.


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## shakey gizzard (Sep 6, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Hush up!! I`ve been colder in a South Georgia river swamp than I got standin` in knee deep snow at &,000 feet in the northern Colorada Rockies.
> 
> Weathergents, I`d like to go ahead and order up the coldest winter on record for Georgia. I`m in bad need of some cold weather.



Better talk to that bad knee first!


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## mdgmc84 (Sep 7, 2011)

Its a nice cool morning down here in south ga! feels really nice, probably in the high 50s, especially nice seeing as just a couple weeks ago we were hitting triple digits! along with most the state. gives me the urge to go do some camping!


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## bigox911 (Sep 7, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Hush up!! I`ve been colder in a South Georgia river swamp than I got standin` in knee deep snow at &,000 feet in the northern Colorada Rockies.
> 
> Weathergents, I`d like to go ahead and order up the coldest winter on record for Georgia. I`m in bad need of some cold weather.



Some places in MS were in the 40's this morning...I'd say we're off to a good start


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## DDD (Sep 7, 2011)

I will be honest boys, I think we are going to be hard pressed to find 90° again until next summer.  In fact, the next 10 days its going to be hard to find 85°.  

As fast as summer came in back in the spring, she looks to be going out the same way.  

I once knew a girl named Summer... she was similar.


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## david w. (Sep 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> I will be honest boys, I think we are going to be hard pressed to find 90° again until next summer.  In fact, the next 10 days its going to be hard to find 85°.  As fast as summer came in back in the spring, she looks to be going out the same way.
> 
> I once knew a girl named Summer... she was similar.



Wouldn't hurt my feelings none.


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## win280 (Sep 7, 2011)

Since we are putting in our order for the winter weather.
I need clear and cool for this weekend,next weekend and a good frost by opening day. Can you make it happen?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2011)

win280 said:


> Since we are putting in our order for the winter weather.
> I need clear and cool for this weekend,next weekend and a good frost by opening day. Can you make it happen?


Farmers almanac is calling for our first good frost to be the first week of November.


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## krisjack (Sep 7, 2011)

That is quite early.I believe it will be a longer and harsher winter this year than it was last year followed by another very hot summer.How often is the Farmers Almanac correct.North Ga is due to have a big snow storm that will make last years forgetful.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> That is quite early.I believe it will be a longer and harsher winter this year than it was last year.


According to the NOAA 12 month projections temps will be more neutral and it will be dryer than last year. I guess we'll find out pretty soon.


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## todd03blown (Sep 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> How often is the Farmers Almanac correct.North Ga is due to have a big snow storm that will make last years forgetful.



Interesting....So how often is the Farmers Almanac accurate with its predictions?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 7, 2011)

krisjack said:


> .How often is the Farmers Almanac correct.North Ga is due to have a big snow storm that will make last years forgetful.


The Farmers Almanac is amazingly accurate, and as far as the big one, until the Maunder Minimum gets into full swing, last winters was the big one.

While y'all are in a speculative mood, and since the stock market is sketchy, check out these maps, for giggles.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php


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## DDD (Sep 14, 2011)

So Mellish is out with his Winter Weather outlook and he talks in a lot of circles but it comes down to what I said orginally back in July.  (Maybe he reads this page?)

We look to enter into a La Nina winter.  Will it be strong or will it be weak?  That is the million dollar question.  Typically the strong La Nina winters are dry and warmer than normal.  Last year La Nina was strong but got out played by the -NAO.   This year looks to be on track with last year.  Of course Mellish is not going to buy into the Snow Megedon and I won't either.  I bring this statement up because I specifically remember driving home before the snow hit this past January and I remember him saying "This will not be a major snow, it will not be the snow pacolypse like many have rumored about."  Oh yeah Kirk?  Is that why school was shut down for a week in Metro Atlanta?  

One of the other funnies from last year was me watching Fox 5 and the weekend talking head was saying we might get a dusting.  Wonder how she felt 24 hours later?  

Anyways, the last two winters here, were preceeded by very hot summers.  Sound familiar?  Yes, it was unusually hot this past summer.

I am still in the camp of a weak La Nina given the cooler temps of the Pacific at this time this year vs. the temps of the Pacific last year.  With a weak La Nina and a STRONG -NAO, I think we could easily have a repeat of winter at the end of December through February.

I will call it now.  We will have at least one 3"+ snow event north of I-20 this year AGAIN possibly 2.  With multiple shots at the white stuff.  Should keep these WW threads interesting.


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## ranger1977 (Sep 14, 2011)

I appreciate the weather guys here at Woody's.

Christmas Day Snow 2010. We loved it.


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## savreds (Sep 14, 2011)

DDD said:


> I will call it now.  We will have at least one 3"+ snow event north of I-20 this year AGAIN possibly 2.  With multiple shots at the white stuff.  Should keep these WW threads interesting.



There ya go discriminating against us that live south of I-20 again.


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## bigox911 (Sep 14, 2011)

I'm just ready for Tommy's wedgie to show up nice on Friday


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## david w. (Sep 14, 2011)

Just bring me some cold weather.I want some white stuff to though.Drag some of it down this way DDD.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 14, 2011)

This is where I want to live. Anyone guess where this forecast is this week?

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr align="center" valign="top"><td width="11%">*Today
*





Tstms
Likely
Hi 50 °F</td><td width="11%">*Tonight
*




Rain/Snow

Lo 36 °F</td><td width="11%">*Thursday
*




Rain/Snow
Likely
Hi 46 °F</td><td width="11%">*Thursday
Night*




Rain/Snow
Likely
Lo 35 °F</td><td width="11%">*Friday
*




Chance
Rain/Snow
Hi 51 °F</td><td width="11%">*Friday
Night*




Chance
Rain/Snow
Lo 39 °F</td><td width="11%">*Saturday
*




Chance
Rain/Snow
Hi 50 °F</td><td width="11%">*Saturday
Night*




Chance
Rain/Snow
Lo 37 °F</td><td width="11%">*Sunday
*




Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Hi 51 °F</td></tr></tbody></table>


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## Keebs (Sep 14, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This is where I want to live. Anyone guess where this forecast is this week?
> 
> <table width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr valign="top" align="center"><td width="11%">*Today
> *
> ...


243's backyard...........  What do I win?????


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## david w. (Sep 14, 2011)

Keebs said:


> 243's backyard...........  What do I win?????


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## Keebs (Sep 14, 2011)

david w. said:


>


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 14, 2011)

Keebs said:


> 243's backyard...........  What do I win?????


Close, but no cigar..


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## BBQBOSS (Sep 14, 2011)

Denver Or somewhere close to there?


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## Keebs (Sep 14, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Close, but no cigar..


 you're kidding! Well snickerfrizzle!


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## DDD (Sep 14, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Close, but no cigar..



You want to live in Alaska?


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## Keebs (Sep 14, 2011)

DDD said:


> You want to live in Alaska?


 YOU don't get to vote.............. but you CAN slip ME the answer!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 14, 2011)

That's this weeks forecast for Vail, Colorado...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...580566406&site=gjt&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text


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## david w. (Sep 14, 2011)

Vail, Colorado?





Wat do i win?


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## BBQBOSS (Sep 14, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> Denver Or somewhere close to there?





Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's this weeks forecast for Vail, Colorado...
> 
> http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...580566406&site=gjt&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text



What do i win?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 14, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> What do i win?


I don't know, it's DDD's thread, ask him....


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## DDD (Sep 14, 2011)

BBQBOSS said:


> What do i win?



You win a vision of Hugh, on a ski lift, in Vail, CO hanging by the top of his pants, only problem is the top of his ski pants are now down near his ankles!

What a prize!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Sep 15, 2011)

Well, the folks in Colorado got a good dusting on the Rockies last night... Here's a pic of Breckenridge. From the looks of the web cams though Vail didn't get any last night. Maybe tonight..


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## Keebs (Sep 15, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, the folks in Colorado got a good dusting on the Rockies last night... Here's a pic of Breckenridge. From the looks of the web cams though Vail didn't get any last night. Maybe tonight..
> 
> View attachment 621625


I have a 1st cousin that lives in Breckenridge, she LOVES it out there!  I can see why, too!


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## david w. (Sep 15, 2011)

I belong in cold weather.


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## BBQBOSS (Sep 15, 2011)

DDD said:


> You win a vision of Hugh, on a ski lift, in Vail, CO hanging by the top of his pants, only problem is the top of his ski pants are now down near his ankles!
> 
> What a prize!



I just vomited all over these Engineer prints! Thanks buddy!


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## rjcruiser (Sep 15, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, the folks in Colorado got a good dusting on the Rockies last night... Here's a pic of Breckenridge. From the looks of the web cams though Vail didn't get any last night. Maybe tonight..
> 
> View attachment 621625



Grew up skiing there...been a long long time though.

Loved it...remember ice skating on Maggie's pond....Duke's Run and 4 o' clock trail.

Now...I'm in Ga where there's no good skiing close


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## blood on the ground (Sep 30, 2011)

with the wind and the low 40s this weekend, some people are going to be thinking its already winter. me...i love it!!!


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## NCHillbilly (Sep 30, 2011)

Supposed to be snow flurries and showers here late tonight/tomorrow morning.


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## DDD (Sep 30, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> with the wind and the low 40s this weekend, some people are going to be thinking its already winter. me...i love it!!!



x2

Its going to be chilly in the shade tomorrow watching UGA  Miss St.


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## Keebs (Sep 30, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> Supposed to be snow flurries and showers here late tonight/tomorrow morning.


 I wanna come visit YOU!!


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## NCHillbilly (Oct 3, 2011)

We had a good frost this morning.


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## david w. (Oct 3, 2011)

This mornin was the first mornin i had to grab my jacket.


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## deermeat270 (Oct 4, 2011)

Sounds like it may get real cold in two weeks.  What's it looking like for opening morning of gun season?


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## Resica (Oct 4, 2011)

It was snowing pretty good Sunday morning at camp. Earliest I've seen snow up here.


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## Unicoidawg (Oct 5, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> We had a good frost this morning.



We did too on the chicken houses......


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## blood on the ground (Oct 12, 2011)

morning lows should be nice and cool for this weekends muzzle loader season! we need a good frost....someone send me some frost to west GA.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 19, 2011)

You kiddies wanna see just how crazy the GFS is getting with the snowfall forecast for later next week, and then even crazier for the following week? Now keep in mind that the GFS is one of the worst at handling winter weather forecast, and the Canadian and Euro are not in agreement with this model run,,,,,,,,yet. I say yet, because the Artic Oscillation does trend towards a regular pattern of colder air moving SE. If this holds true you folks up in the Appalachians should be huntin in the snow in a couple of weeks. But I wouldn't count on it at all, not just yet.


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## NCHillbilly (Oct 20, 2011)

Here's the forecast for the Smokies today. I get tired of winter a lot quicker than y'all do. 
Today: Snow showers likely before noon, then scattered rain and snow showers between noon and 2pm, then scattered rain showers after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Windy, with a west wind between 24 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


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## NCHillbilly (Oct 20, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You kiddies wanna see just how crazy the GFS is getting with the snowfall forecast for later next week, and then even crazier for the following week? Now keep in mind that the GFS is one of the worst at handling winter weather forecast, and the Canadian and Euro are not in agreement with this model run,,,,,,,,yet. I say yet, because the Artic Oscillation does trend towards a regular pattern of colder air moving SE. If this holds true you folks up in the Appalachians should be huntin in the snow in a couple of weeks. But I wouldn't count on it at all, not just yet.
> 
> View attachment 627643
> 
> View attachment 627644




That wouldn't be that unusual for here in western NC, really. A few years ago, we got 2"-3" a couple days before halloween. I've seen a multi-inch snowfall several times in early November. Heck, I've seen snow flurries this morning.


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## DDD (Oct 21, 2011)

Guys, I am going to be writing a lot of my blogs / thoughts on a message board that was created by the host of www.daculaweather.com.  Steve is the host / creator and has asked me to write / admin there with winter weather approaching.

I of course will come here as usual and post, but if you want the really nitty gritty, down and dirty thoughts of mine and other posters, please join us at the link below.

We already have 2 meteorologist on board there as well.  Both of these guys are top notch and offer a lot of opinion and discusion when winter weather is approaching or is at least on the forecast map.

I encourage you all to join up and join in the discussion as we roll into winter.

I remind you all that we had a white Christmas last year.  Christmas is only 2 months away.

http://daculaweather.com/forum/index.php


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## DDD (Oct 21, 2011)

For all of us deer hunters, another cold shot looks to roll in here with some strong wind a week from today.  There seems to be a pattern right now of 8-9 day ushering ins of weather.

If the forecast holds it will be the coldest temps of the season and we should go below the 32° mark from about south Atlanta northward.  Should be a beautiful cold morning to hunt on Saturday morning, but as the sun comes up temps will as well.


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## deermeat270 (Oct 21, 2011)

ddd said:


> for all of us deer hunters, another cold shot looks to roll in here with some strong wind a week from today.  There seems to be a pattern right now of 8-9 day ushering ins of weather.
> 
> If the forecast holds it will be the coldest temps of the season and we should go below the 32° mark from about south atlanta northward.  Should be a beautiful cold morning to hunt on saturday morning, but as the sun comes up temps will as well.



yeah common!


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## slip (Oct 21, 2011)

oct24
76°

oct25
79°

oct26
79°

oct27
78°

Your not going to let this happen, are you DDD?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 23, 2011)

slip said:


> oct24
> 76°
> 
> oct25
> ...



Unless the NAO and AO change their minds and trend more negative he won't have a choice. What initially looked like a colder blast of air than last time has moderated quite a bit...


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## BBQBOSS (Oct 23, 2011)

Looks like it may be back to the lower 60's come the weekend.  At least tha'ts what W'underground is saying for Woodstick...


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## DDD (Oct 28, 2011)

I hope you boys know how to hunt in the wind, she's gonna blow tomorrow and Sunday.


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## BROWNING7WSM (Oct 28, 2011)

Was just hoping to get a little rain out of this front.  Looked promising last night.. Don't know what the heck has happened now...Bring on the wind!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Oct 28, 2011)

BROWNING7WSM said:


> Was just hoping to get a little rain out of this front.  Looked promising last night.. Don't know what the heck has happened now...Bring on the wind!



It'll be about 14 mph tomorrow and then 16 mph on Sunday....
You got the dope on the windage for shots out of your stand?


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## krisjack (Oct 28, 2011)

Looks like Sat we are going to be 67 for the high and 38 sat night.North winds 20 mph then they slow down sunday at 10 mph.Wish we will have some rain in this things looks as tho northeast is gonna have a good early nor'easter come there way.


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## krisjack (Oct 29, 2011)

I dont think it rain a drop at my house last nite.


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## DDD (Nov 8, 2011)

Coldest temps of the season on the way this Thursday - Friday - Saturday.  Make sure you have your freezer suit on in the stand Saturday.


MOS SHOWS SOME OF THE COLDEST
MIN TEMPS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS FALL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRI AND
SAT MORNING. EVEN MID 20S ARE ADVERTISED FOR THE USUALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS FFC...CCO...AND RHP BY EARLY SAT...SO IT APPEARS A
HARD FREEZE IS IN ORDER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY THIS WEEKEND AND MOST
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY HAD A FREEZE LIKELY WILL...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF ATL AND CSG...WHERE
MID 30S ARE PROGGED. GUSTY NW WINDS AND STRONG CAA THU-FRI WILL
YIELD A COUPLE OF RATHER BLUSTERY...COOL DAYS FOR THE CWA. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR

THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 8, 2011)

DDD said:


> Coldest temps of the season on the way this Thursday - Friday - Saturday.  Make sure you have your freezer suit on in the stand Saturday.
> 
> 
> MOS SHOWS SOME OF THE COLDEST
> ...


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 15, 2011)

Maybe December will bring a prolonged cold outbreak


----------



## Matt.M (Nov 17, 2011)

According to my 3 year old it is going to snow in 3 weeks.  He really loves the snow.  

Any long term predictions?  DDD, MG, BigOX?  We really need to get out of these 70 degree days.


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 17, 2011)

You can thank the cold Alaska for all of this warm.  Hopefully the pattern will flip for the better in about two weeks, but who really knows.  I will say...this is the first one of these fantasy storms I've seen in quite a while show up on the gfs...It doesn't mean snow for us as it's shown, but maybe it's picking up on something.








Hopefully Turkey day and the following weekend won't be as warm as it was looking like earlier this week either.


----------



## Matt.M (Nov 17, 2011)

Oh yea, that would work perfect that weekend!  Rented a cabin for the wife's birthday in Blue Ridge.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 20, 2011)

Yep, thus far the GFS is sticking with a scattering of snow for the NW quadrant of the state. Unfortunately it will be preceded by some nasty weather for Miss and Al and just maybe our western counties, it is just too far out to tell yet.

I covered it in maps here:
http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=641510

But I will post the forecast snowfall map here:


----------



## DDD (Nov 20, 2011)

GFS long range has a positive AO around the time frame of the above map.  For that reason I doubt very seriously it verifies.  

The pattern looks rough and wet for the next 2 weeks.  I think the midwest and the Ohio Valley stand the best chance for snow the next 2 weeks.


----------



## jcountry (Nov 20, 2011)

Man-

I sure wish we would get a little cold spell.  I would like to use my fireplace a lot more than I have so far this year.


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 22, 2011)

I do like the words cut off low...hopefully it turns in to something


----------



## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

Its probably going to be end of December or January that we see any significant winter weather. If then.  Right now La nina is in charge and this is typical La Nina warm weather.


----------



## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

Well, a strong upper level low might surprise us in 5-6 days.

If you remember ULL's carry their own cold air and when they bomb out you don't need cold air in place to get snow.

GFS seems to like the solution.  This would be Monday night.


----------



## DDD (Nov 22, 2011)

Here is your precip.


----------



## Matt.M (Nov 22, 2011)

Bring it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 22, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> I do like the words cut off low...hopefully it turns in to something





DDD said:


> Well, a strong upper level low might surprise us in 5-6 days.
> 
> If you remember ULL's carry their own cold air and when they bomb out you don't need cold air in place to get snow.
> 
> GFS seems to like the solution.  This would be Monday night.



Potentially a precursor to the artic blast to follow it up on the 4th or 5th?


----------



## Priest (Nov 22, 2011)

What do you think about the blip in the GFS for Sat Dec 3 @ 1800GMT through Sun the 4th @0600GMT?


----------



## DDD (Nov 23, 2011)

Priest said:


> What do you think about the blip in the GFS for Sat Dec 3 @ 1800GMT through Sun the 4th @0600GMT?



Way too far out to trust.   Just have to hide and watch.

However I am about to do a write up on what is to come this Monday / Tuesday.


----------



## DDD (Nov 23, 2011)

Alright there is lots to talk about.

It includes severe weather and snow all in the same post.

First off, the pattern is changing and this Upper Level Low is going to act like the dynamite to get it started.

Second, the EURO is slower and a little more powerful than the GFS with it's solution.  

The bottom line as it stands this morning is, we could be looking at severe weather Sunday into Monday.  Not only severe weather, but flooding as well.  The ULL is very strong and with it's negative / neutral tilt it will tap the gulf for moisture.  On the 00Z models last night the GFS was showing 5-7 inches of rain over a 6 hour period.  Now that's what I call flash flooding.

The EURO is more bullish with it's solution and after the severe weather has rolled through it opens up right over Georgia and Tennessee and gives us what would amount to about an inch of snow.

Most certainly I have something to follow while I am laid up on the couch and I will hopefuly keep you boys and girls updated.

One last thing, GFS puts the sweet spot of rain 8+ inches of rain right over Lake Lanier.  Lets hope that happens!:trampoline:


----------



## georgia357 (Nov 23, 2011)

DDD said:


> One last thing, GFS puts the sweet spot of rain 8+ inches of rain right over Lake Lanier.  Lets hope that happens!:trampoline:




Man, that would be sweet.  Thanks for the update.


----------



## DDD (Nov 25, 2011)

Some good, good rain is on the way for the Northern half of the state, followed by some flurries and maybe a snow shower.  The Upper Level Low is strong, very, very strong and most models are now on board for this thing.

NW Georgia up around Rome will see some really nice snow showers but nothing will stick.  The ground is way too warm.  The bigger story is the amount of rain we should receive and it will be very much welcome.

The pattern for the future is unstable and encouraging to help our drought and for the chance of snow.  Gonna be a fun ride again this winter I think.


----------



## DDD (Nov 25, 2011)

:jump:


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 25, 2011)

Projected total precip over next 5 days based on 18z GFS...who has a boat?


----------



## DDD (Nov 26, 2011)

While we may see some flakes fly on the back side of this ULL, the rain amounts are impressive!  Especially for the Lanier basin.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Nov 26, 2011)

D or Miquel..... what is the timing on this for us up here in the mountains.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 26, 2011)

Unicoidawg said:


> D or Miquel..... what is the timing on this for us up here in the mountains.



We were discussing this on the phone this morning. The models are still all over the place, and the latest GFS run is putting out some crazy stuff, with totals as high as 1.5 inches for areas such as Blue Ridge and much lesser amounts elsewhere in the northern parts of Ga. Our biggest question is ground temps, it just doesn't seem that the ground has cooled off enough yet to really facilitate any accumulation.

One thing is for sure, it will be fun to watch, even if it's just a few flakes falling from the sky.


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 26, 2011)

Yes pls how much snow am I going to get off bells ferry here in Acworf?  Also only between 9pm and 5 am Monday to Tuesday.  Thank you


----------



## DDD (Nov 26, 2011)

I hope everyone has their leaves out of their gutters.


----------



## DDD (Nov 26, 2011)

The 3 Day outlook is even more impressive.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 26, 2011)

James Spann just answered BigOx's request... although James states that he doesn't have faith in this run of the NAM for a total accumulation by Tuesday a.m.


----------



## DDD (Nov 26, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> James Spann just answered BigOx's request... although James states that he doesn't have faith in this run of the NAM for a total accumulation by Tuesday a.m.
> 
> View attachment 634574



Impressive, I need to go look at Nashville and see if they have issued a winter weather watch.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 26, 2011)

DDD said:


> Impressive, I need to go look at Nashville and see if they have issued a winter weather watch.



You know those butterfly's you get in your stomach when there is a cold low setup like this and the models can't resolve? Check out the temps this week. Almost freezing every morning, and the Met goes even colder towards the end of the week.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 26, 2011)

Great loop of the temps behind this front. Should be interesting to see it in another 24 hours.
Zoom out to the entire US and hit the play button at the bottom.

http://weatherspark.com/#!maps;a=USA/30656/GA/Bold_Springs


----------



## westcobbdog (Nov 26, 2011)

DDD said:


> Impressive, I need to go look at Nashville and see if they have issued a winter weather watch.



keep us posted, my 20 yr old daughter is a pilot and is flying Sunday night at 8pm into McCollum from Nashville in a small Diamond 40.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Nov 26, 2011)

DDD said:


> I hope everyone has their leaves out of their gutters.



Just finished! Bring on the rain!:jump:


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 27, 2011)

Usually approaching an event the models begin to moderate.
Not this time. This system has really peaked my curiosity.


----------



## DDD (Nov 27, 2011)

I am just getting on the internets to see what is up, but for now, it looks like Northern Alabama and Tennessee and possibly N. GA including Atlanta might be in for some surprise snow showers.

I will post some more once I am caught up.


----------



## DDD (Nov 27, 2011)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
219 pm est sun nov 27 2011

...flood watch in effect for portions of north georgia...
...early season wintry precip possible early tuesday...



Phase 1...heavy rain potential...
As upper low continues to close off this evening over the lower
mississippi valley...system will slow down which will have
significant impacts on rainfall totals. Increased upper
divergence through this time period should allow for a slight
increase to intensity of rainfall as well. Add to that any
orographic influences and you have all the ingredients for a
significant event. Still sticking close to the hpc qpf which
yields the greatest rainfall as upper jet surges ne mon afternoon
in concert with surface low retrograding over the tennessee
valley. This area would be over the extreme northeast corner of
the forecast area where forecast totals are in excess of five
inches and there is a high risk of excessive rainfall per hpc.
Needless to say...a flood watch has been posted for these areas
but areal extent may need to be revisited with subsequent
forecasts.

Phase 2...wintry wx potential...
To be clear...at this point...the flooding potential is by far the
more significant impact expected this week but need to monitor
closely wintry scenario late monday night into tuesday morning.
Gfs and ecmwf in good agreement in bringing a significant
shortwave spoke from tennessee valley upper low through the area
early tuesday. Given cold core nature of this system...instability
driven shra are looking more probable and the question turns to in
what form. Partial thicknesses and soundings all point to -snsh
for most of north ga through 15z tue. The problem is the surface
wet bulbs which look to struggle to get cold enough to support
snow all the way to the surface. Feel mountains and northern tier
will have the best chances but areas with bursts in intensity will
have greater chances for frozen precip as well. Have opted to
indicate -snsh for the northern tier...mostly the mountains...and
a mix further south. Regardless...warm ground temps will make it
difficult for anything to stick. Main area for concern would be ne
mountains and will need to monitor closely with subsequent
forecasts.


----------



## DDD (Nov 27, 2011)

Ok.  So here is my best stab at what is for sure the most weird, crazy weather system that I can remember in quite some time.

The cold front draped across the United States is basically made up of 3 countours, expressed here in this picture by the 3 X's.






Now, the energy labled #2 basically carries the cold air.  The X labled #3 is the piece of energy sucking moisture out of the gulf.  The #2 piece of energy is going to get sucked down the back side of the #3 piece of energy and is going to "blow" into the South East and bring with it a very strong cold pool of air.  You can actually see it depicted here over NW Mississippi where it is white.  This is the beginning of adding the "fuel to the fire" of the Upper Level Low to generate snow.





Once the cold air interacts with the front it begins to pinwheel.  Notice the cold air in it's own "bubble" surrounded by warm air 360 degrees all the way around it.  Even north of it!!





When the pinwheeling begins, it will push the moisture that is training over NW Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama east.  But what the #2 piece of energy does is bring around a large slug of miosture that rotates into cold air that on many models shows temps being 32-34 degrees at the surface.  In this picture that slug of moisture is over Western Tennessee.





The ground is too warm at the surface to sustain any accumulation.  However, in the mountains if enough snow falls it can cool the very top surface of grassy areas and cause the snow to accumulate there.  Making it measurable snow.  For Atlanta and all points East and West it will just hit the ground and melt.  

What is most impressive is for this much snow shower activity and it's still November.  Sign of things to come?  I think so.  Hugh and I talked about it yesterday.  The pattern is very active in the coming weeks.

This last picture is of what I think will be all snow from ATL northward.  Upsloping features in the mountians will cause more lift and make the snow showers heavier.  The snow shower activity will be Monday night into Tuesday morning.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Nov 27, 2011)

Wow! Going to be fun to look at!


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 27, 2011)

Going to be interesting watching the radar blow up tonight and in to tomorrow as this thing closes off and goes negative.


----------



## DDD (Nov 27, 2011)

Yep, this thing has not even reached full tilt boogie yet.

It's gonna dump some rain and then some snow showers, NWS just has not bought into it yet.


----------



## DDD (Nov 27, 2011)

Let the good times roll....


----------



## jcountry (Nov 27, 2011)

Thanks for the info on this system.

Looks like an interesting one!


----------



## topfuelgirl (Nov 28, 2011)

DDD where you???


----------



## topfuelgirl (Nov 28, 2011)

Sorry LOL, DDD where are you??


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 28, 2011)

Interesting look on the RUC for sure.  Showing the 850 low going back west almost lining up under the 500 cutoff low.  Should really be cranking the cold there if they were to stack up.  The last frame of the 500mb chart looks like it's going to rotate that vort max over Memphis right over N. MS, N. AL, and then N.GA.







Hour 30 on the 12z NAM passes it right over N.GA.  Should be pretty to at least see some flakes flying tomorrow






It's interesting seeing how far south the cold air has made it back closer to the 500 low.  Down in the 40's in south Alabama and in Florida already.


----------



## Robbie101 (Nov 28, 2011)

Aight guys, So are we looking at the possibility of having a fun winter like the last one was..... Or is it to early to tell.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 28, 2011)

Robbie101 said:


> Aight guys, So are we looking at the possibility of having a fun winter like the last one was..... Or is it to early to tell.....



Everywhere except your backyard...

I think DDD touched on it last month, but the trend thus far shows cold and wet early and then a warmer Jan and Feb.

Only one way to know for sure though..


----------



## Robbie101 (Nov 28, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everywhere except your backyard...
> 
> I think DDD touched on it last month, but the trend thus far shows cold and wet early and then a warmer Jan and Feb.
> 
> Only one way to know for sure though..



Miguel, I can't read that far back. lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 28, 2011)

It wouldn't be a bad time to be in Nashville the next few days. That is if you like snow.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Nov 28, 2011)

Whoohoo...let's get it started!


----------



## Dustin Pate (Nov 28, 2011)

Snowing in Haleyville, Alabama right now....

http://www.abc3340.com/category/191673/Category.asp?c=205409


----------



## todd03blown (Nov 28, 2011)

Nice snowfall coming down!!  Looking forward to getting some of this in Canton tonight/tomorrow.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Nov 28, 2011)

Looks like a lotta juice get'n wrapped around!:trampoline:


----------



## GA DAWG (Nov 28, 2011)

Sleeted in Forsyth county this evening. I think anyhow.  Felt like it. I was deer huntin.


----------



## todd03blown (Nov 28, 2011)

Surprised no more updates from Miguel or DDD.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 28, 2011)

todd03blown said:


> Surprised no more updates from Miguel or DDD.



Not much has changed. I suspect the 00z model run will reveal a much tighter grasp on just what will be happening.

Here's what I picked from the the latest run.

The surface temps model has moved a little towards the colder side.


And there will be a ton of cold air aloft at the 925mb height accompanied by some good winds.


But we have to move a few more hours out on the run to see the potential coverage, primarily laying the best chances on the higher elevations around areas such as Springer Mountain and the surrounding like elevations.


----------



## todd03blown (Nov 28, 2011)

Thanks for the update!


----------



## ryork (Nov 29, 2011)

Very light snow falling here in SW Carroll County near Blackjack Mt.  Started around 5:30.


----------



## ryork (Nov 29, 2011)

Picking up a little now.  36.8 degrees according to the thermometer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 29, 2011)




----------



## grizzlyblake (Nov 29, 2011)

Looks like all the predicted snow is sticking to the West Tennessee area I'm guessing?


----------



## DDD (Nov 29, 2011)

It's very spotty and as the moisture wraps around into the colder drier air it is evaporating.

I personally saw some big flakes driving up 75 this moring just north of the north loop.

I had not posted much simply because there is not a lot to talk about.  This was an Upper Level Low that was super powerful, it just showed up about 3-4 weeks too early to really treat us to some snow.

However, I have my eye on some development Wed-Thursday of next week, but we will just have to wait and see.


----------



## ryano (Nov 29, 2011)

nothing but on and off flurries here in Jasper.........I did see a few cars on the way into work this morning that I suppose came off of Burnt Mountain.......they had about an inch on the hoods and roofs of the vehicles.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 29, 2011)

Just got a message from Wade Chandler, up on Springer Mtn. He said they have 2" so far.


----------



## DDD (Nov 29, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just got a message from Wade Chandler, up on Springer Mtn. He said they have 2" so far.



SWEET!!!!  

Tell him to send pics!!!


----------



## GA DAWG (Nov 29, 2011)

Hmmm. Dawson Forest starts a hunt tomorrow. How much is on monument rd recken?


----------



## DDD (Nov 29, 2011)

Lots of reports coming in now of snow and sleet showers up in the mountains.  Temps up there are still 34-36.


----------



## mountainpass (Nov 29, 2011)

GA DAWG said:


> Hmmm. Dawson Forest starts a hunt tomorrow. How much is on monument rd recken?



The snow line appears to be about 2500ft. Monument is close to 3000ft. It not sticking to the roads yet though.


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 30, 2011)

so would this go down as a new record for early snow fall in GA?


----------



## Matt.M (Nov 30, 2011)

Nope.  I remember playing soccer in Roswell and it snowing on Halloween day in 1993.  I remember it because I thought it was the coolest thing to be playing soccer in the snow.


----------



## blood on the ground (Nov 30, 2011)

Matt.M said:


> Nope.  I remember playing soccer in Roswell and it snowing on Halloween day in 1993.  I remember it because I thought it was the coolest thing to be playing soccer in the snow.



i dont recall that one! been living in the Paulding co all my life.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Nov 30, 2011)

Ended up with 2.5 inches or so up here.  We just got above freezing about 30 mins ago, so it's starting to melt, but it sure was pretty.  Kinda neat getting a measurable snow in November. I only took pictures with the cell phone, but I might get a few up after while.


----------



## Matt.M (Nov 30, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> i dont recall that one! been living in the Paulding co all my life.



It was flurries.  But that's snow in my book.  

Here's the Wiki link about Atlanta.  It's under the Winter Storms paragraphs.  That section was an interesting read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta_metropolitan_area


----------



## GA DAWG (Nov 30, 2011)

Here's what was on Burnt Mt this morning.


----------



## DDD (Nov 30, 2011)

Posting these for Wade.

Man, what a beautiful sight!!!  WOW!!!  

Gives me snow fever!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Nov 30, 2011)

Thanks for posting those DDD.  Our internet connection up here on the mountain isn't the best for uploading pics.
These were all taken yesterday at Amicalola Falls State Park and the Len Foote Hike Inn.


----------



## bigox911 (Nov 30, 2011)

Great snow pictures...and earlier than last year as well.  Always good


----------



## Swede (Nov 30, 2011)

Just give me my two snow days this year, or I'll hafta hurt the deer dropper and scooter grit


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 30, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> Thanks for posting those DDD.  Our internet connection up here on the mountain isn't the best for uploading pics.
> These were all taken yesterday at Amicalola Falls State Park and the Len Foote Hike Inn.



Man, instant winter wonderland Wade. Great pics.


----------



## Paymaster (Nov 30, 2011)

Great pics Wade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Holton (Dec 1, 2011)

Nice pictures


----------



## DDD (Dec 1, 2011)

So the next 2 weeks look, blah at best.  

I thought we might see something next week but no dice.

I will keep :worm: though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 1, 2011)

DDD said:


> So the next 2 weeks look, blah at best.
> 
> I thought we might see something next week but no dice.
> 
> I will keep :worm: though.



Down right depressing isn't it...


----------



## DDD (Dec 1, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Down right depressing isn't it...



Pattern is a changing... I like our odds for Christmas.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 1, 2011)

DDD said:


> Pattern is a changing... I like our odds for Christmas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 1, 2011)

Keebs said:


>



He didn't mean in North Florida...


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 1, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Down right depressing isn't it...



yall having withdrawals??? lol 

you know after the first of the year we will enter into a mini ice age and have several months of temps below freezing. this will last all the way  into june then things will slowly start to melt, but the melt itself will not allow the temps to get over 70 through the summer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 1, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> yall having withdrawals??? lol
> 
> you know after the first of the year we will enter into a mini ice age and have several months of temps below freezing. this will last all the way  into june then things will slowly start to melt, but the melt itself will not allow the temps to get over 70 through the summer.



That's 2014, you're a few years ahead with that forecast..


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 1, 2011)

Thanks guys. Thank you for what you do! I look forward to the next update.


----------



## slip (Dec 1, 2011)

DDD said:


> Pattern is a changing... I like our odds for Christmas.



That would be cool ...


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 1, 2011)

DDD said:


> Pattern is a changing... I like our odds for Christmas.



 Hopefully that ridge out west will just stay put...just not be so freakin steep


----------



## DDD (Dec 1, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Hopefully that ridge out west will just stay put...just not be so freakin steep



I think the good old fashioned, back by popular demand, "Tommy Wedge" comes back!!!


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 3, 2011)

Snow on Christmas two years in a row would be awesome!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 5, 2011)

We're doomed against any more snow. NOAA has a new climate observance bird in space and I just heard about all of the new equipment that Ga. has for snow removal from the roads. That's the death nail in Murphy's Law against our chances for snow...


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 5, 2011)

Any weather updates?


----------



## krisjack (Dec 5, 2011)

For some reason the dacula forums admin has banned my ip address for some unknown reason.All I did was registered on there forums and I guess they didnt want me.It said that someone had to except me when I registered and I have been waiting every since and now when I go over there it says my ip address been banned please notify board admin or something.I sent them a email of the link but never received a reply.Been over a week or so since I sent it.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2011)

krisjack said:


> For some reason the dacula forums admin has banned my ip address for some unknown reason.All I did was registered on there forums and I guess they didnt want me.It said that someone had to except me when I registered and I have been waiting every since and now when I go over there it says my ip address been banned please notify board admin or something.I sent them a email of the link but never received a reply.Been over a week or so since I sent it.



Let me see if I can fix it for ya.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2011)

mewabbithunter said:


> Any weather updates?



Yep.  Nice good cold temps starting to set up for the weekend.  50 for high, 28 for lows and colder in the mountains.

I am hoping this is laying the ground work for things to come.

As for the equipment that the DOT bought.  After last January's storm that I might remind you old Kirk Melish said was not going to be snowpocolypse... yet schools were closed for a week... yeah, the powers at be realized real quick that the DOT needs some more equipment.

They were using stuff from 1980 and stuff was breaking left and right.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2011)

On another note, while I won't mention his name, one of our weather forcasters in the ATL is a HUGE believer in global warming and life in outer space.  Seriously, it explains a lot.

What a nut.


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 5, 2011)

DDD said:


> On another note, while I won't mention his name, one of our weather forcasters in the ATL is a HUGE believer in global warming and life in outer space.  Seriously, it explains a lot.
> 
> What a nut.



Are his initials the same as Green Bay?


----------



## krisjack (Dec 5, 2011)

those snow pics are very pretty wish it could snow like that here this christmas but so far been like spring with a Passing Low to lower the temps.Was 78 today according to the truck.gotta wake up in the morning to clean out a storage unit my parents bought today.Got back from doing it few minutes ago.Lot of LSU fans on here.I am a Bulldog fan to bad they choked in the 2nd half.Hopefully next year be better.In a few years we should have another BCS championship.I should start to shape up to be a stormy season.There should be some Blocking should occur at the end of this month.Should be another cold winter prolly worst than last year I would think but we will see.Keep an eye out for the New Year day maybe a storm around then.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2011)

The system that is going to roll in here tomorrow is going to bring some snow to the mountains.  Maybe the far northeast mountains.

For sure if you are going to Cherokee, N.C. or anywhere in the blue ridge mountains you stand a good chance of seeing some measurable snow.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 5, 2011)

Sure could use some cold weather down this way, DDD.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Sure could use some cold weather down this way, DDD.



Well, Nic, wish I had more to offer but I don't.

Looked back today at this time last year what we were gapping about and man it was active and COLD!!!!  Even looking way down the road La Nina is in control.  

So we ride this zonal flow.

Right now if I had to lay money on a bet... I would say the month of January will be our best shot.


----------



## DDD (Dec 6, 2011)

FYI, looking at the long range models this morning, I don't like it one bit.  Not one.

Last year La Nina was supposed to be in control, this year she is supposed to do the same thing.  Starting to look like she may have lost the fight last year, but has come back for revenge this year.

Dang it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 6, 2011)

Hey DDD, just posted this on my site:

In contrast to the last two winters; 

Although NOAA is just now getting a grasp on the correlation between Solar activity and Earth's weather with their new climate satellite there is a marked difference between this years CME's (Coronal Mass Ejections) that are earthbound and last years. The sun is just as active as it was over the last two winters, however the difference is most of the CME's have been on the opposite side of the sun and not directed at earth's magnetic field.

It will be interesting to see if there is a change in the NAO, (North Atlantic Oscillation) if the CME's become more earthbound in their direction. Something worth monitoring for sure.

These events are updated daily at this site:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0 ... ce-weather


----------



## Danny Leigh (Dec 6, 2011)

What's that link Miguel?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 6, 2011)

Danny Leigh said:


> What's that link Miguel?



PM sent.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 6, 2011)

I am hoping mid Jan. would be pretty good.Link does not exist lol.I am hoping that La Nina will weaken pretty soon.DDD I registered again over that at the forums just waiting on a email saying i have been excepted or not.I sent u a pm I dont know if u got it or not about it.We have had a very hot summer hopefully we will have a very cold snowy winter.


----------



## todd03blown (Dec 6, 2011)

A couple of the local weather folks are posting that snow might be in the forecast for N. Ga tomorrow night. Said it is showing up in the model runs.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 6, 2011)

Yeah here its small chance for rain tomorrow night low 28 but I live in southwest Ga.If it snows up there it would be only flurries.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 6, 2011)

todd03blown said:


> A couple of the local weather folks are posting that snow might be in the forecast for N. Ga tomorrow night. Said it is showing up in the model runs.



Far far north ga is showing some chance, but only very briefly.  Off the 18z hi rez nam


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 6, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Far far north ga is showing some chance, but only very briefly.  Off the 18z hi rez nam



Yep, again it's cold chasing the moisture and dependent on the wrap around effect to drop any flakes.

We sure do need a good "cold leading the moisture" system to make it feel sho' nuff' like winter time.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, again it's cold chasing the moisture and dependent on the wrap around effect to drop any flakes.
> 
> We sure do need a good "cold leading the moisture" system to make it feel sho' nuff' like winter time.



amen brother.....lets drum one up for say......12/24/11?!?!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> amen brother.....lets drum one up for say......12/24/11?!?!



Based on the current models that isn't in the cards, but hey, there's lots of time between now and then..


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2011)

We're under a winter weather advisory here for this afternoon and tonight. Could be up to 4" or so in places. I'll have a fun 40-mile drive in to work tomorrow over crooked steep roads. Y'all can have my share of the snow, I get pretty tired of it after it snows a couple times a week for three or four months and it takes me two hours to drive to work.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Receiving tweets that it is now snowing in Florence, Jasper, Trussville and Vestavia Alabama.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 7, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> We're under a winter weather advisory here for this afternoon and tonight. Could be up to 4" or so in places. I'll have a fun 40-mile drive in to work tomorrow over crooked steep roads. Y'all can have my share of the snow, I get pretty tired of it after it snows a couple times a week for three or four months and it takes me two hours to drive to work.



you want to trade??...LOL . i will even do a six month deal


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 7, 2011)

Out from NWS


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## Keebs (Dec 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Out from NWS


 ya'll stay safe up that way!
Wind is really kicking down this way now!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Really cool anomaly in clouds off of the coast. This is from Brad Panovich, Met in N.C. as he was tracking the cold front.

It isn't uncommon to see hole punches in clouds as a result of aircraft flying through them, and this one does appear to have a contrail leading into or out of it, but it is unusually large.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Out from NWS



Hmm... 

They may be over playing that 5,6 suited.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Really cool anomaly in clouds off of the coast. This is from Brad Panovich, Met in N.C. as he was tracking the cold front.
> 
> It isn't uncommon to see hole punches in clouds as a result of aircraft flying through them, and this one does appear to have a contrail leading into or out of it, but it is unusually large.
> 
> View attachment 636512



GB probably is checking his spacecraft sightings as we speak.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> Hmm...
> 
> They may be over playing that 5,6 suited.



Bet...if/when everything is pointing to a big snow storm they will have no graphics and are going to be saying trace to half inch


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> GB probably is checking his spacecraft sightings as we speak.



Well, it does appear to be right over Bermuda...


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Bet...if/when everything is pointing to a big snow storm they will have no graphics and are going to be saying trace to half inch



If you want a good laugh, see if you can read their disco's before the January event last year.


----------



## Matt.M (Dec 7, 2011)

DDD said:


> They may be over playing that 5,6 suited.



Care to elaborate?  No clue what your referencing.

No to Black Ice, and yes to snow on :wreath:


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## DDD (Dec 7, 2011)

Come on Wade.... Tell 'em!!!  LOL!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 7, 2011)

Started pouring down snow about 20 minutes ago.  35 degrees and dropping fast!


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## Wade Chandler (Dec 7, 2011)

34.5 according to the thermometer now, and it's sticking on the roof.


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## bigox911 (Dec 7, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> Started pouring down snow about 20 minutes ago.  35 degrees and dropping fast!



Glad someone is getting it


----------



## Unicoidawg (Dec 7, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> We're under a winter weather advisory here for this afternoon and tonight. Could be up to 4" or so in places. I'll have a fun 40-mile drive in to work tomorrow over crooked steep roads. Y'all can have my share of the snow, I get pretty tired of it after it snows a couple times a week for three or four months and it takes me two hours to drive to work.



You can always move ya know...............


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2011)

Unicoidawg said:


> You can always move ya know...............



Then I wouldn't have anything to complain about.  I love snow, just don't like driving 80 miles a day in it.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Dec 7, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> Then I wouldn't have anything to complain about.  I love snow, just don't like driving 80 miles a day in it.



One or the other......... Love it..... or hate it, can't have both.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 7, 2011)

Flurries in the BIG city of Gillsville!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 7, 2011)

32 now.  Snow has slowed down a little, but it's actually starting to stick.  Everything that fell during the downpour of snow earlier melted, but it's sticking to the trees, roof, rails, and steps now.  Big beautiful puffy flakes


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 7, 2011)

i just finished my 2nd snow man here in marietta.. man i love this!!!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 7, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> 32 now.  Snow has slowed down a little, but it's actually starting to stick.  Everything that fell during the downpour of snow earlier melted, but it's sticking to the trees, roof, rails, and steps now.  Big beautiful puffy flakes



thats awesome:santa:


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## rjcruiser (Dec 7, 2011)

Great...and I gotta drive to Oxford Alabama in the morning.  Hmm...y'all think I-20 is going to be alright around 8:30AM?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Newfound Gap / Cades Cove area roads are closed.

http://www.nps.gov/grsm/planyourvisit/temproadclose.htm


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Flat Top Mtn. West Virginia


----------



## Matt.M (Dec 7, 2011)

Our corporate office is having a delayed open tomorrow at 10AM.  I'll try to sleep in (as much as one can with a 8 week old and 3.5 boy, he'll be disappointed that there isn't any white stuff)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> Great...and I gotta drive to Oxford Alabama in the morning.  Hmm...y'all think I-20 is going to be alright around 8:30AM?



I-20 is fine, this stuff is up in the mountains, and mostly up in the Tn / NC Smokies and points northward.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Webcam from Banner Elk NC

http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_BannerElkLIVE.htm


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 7, 2011)

Matt.M said:


> Our corporate office is having a delayed open tomorrow at 10AM.  I'll try to sleep in (as much as one can with a 8 week old and 3.5 boy, he'll be disappointed that there isn't any white stuff)



Just nudge your wife


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2011)

Wind damage near Granite Falls NC, and here's a picture of the scud cloud suspected of creating that damage.


----------



## pbradley (Dec 7, 2011)

The former Mrs. pbradley claims to be getting snow in Pigeon Forge.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 7, 2011)

Everything's nice and white and fluffy here, and the wind is howling. S'post to get down to about 19* tonight and we got about an inch of rain earlier today-roads are nice and soaking wet, do we may have an ice rink in the morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2011)

NCHillbilly said:


> Everything's nice and white and fluffy here, and the wind is howling. S'post to get down to about 19* tonight and we got about an inch of rain earlier today-roads are nice and soaking wet, do we may have an ice rink in the morning.



Be careful out there, nobody likes taking the fast way down the mountain.


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 8, 2011)

rjcruiser said:


> Great...and I gotta drive to Oxford Alabama in the morning.  Hmm...y'all think I-20 is going to be alright around 8:30AM?



i did my I-20 ride this morning and it was the normal above speed limit conditions..


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2011)

Well, we have this to look at or at the very least watch.

Doing lots of reading now in preparation for what is to come.  Maybe.


http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/snowstorm-southeast-set-december-17-2011



> Looks like we have a major winter storm threat for the Deep South 10 days from now. Maybe between Dec.17th and Dec. 21st. As you can see from this water vapor image of Dec. 8, 2011. I really expect to see cold air will start to move Southeast out of Canada. At the same time a strong subtropical Jet Stream will pull deep moister into the Southeast by way of the Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico. The set up for this snowstorm will be cold air moving southeast out of western Canada. At the same time a deep low pressure system will take birth in the Gulf of Mexico. The classic set up for a major winter storm for the Southeast. This is a long-range forecast. Things could change. FirstHand Weather will keep you up to date as time goes on. Len R. Holliday


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 9, 2011)

inaccuweather is posting rumblings as well...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/a-stormy-week-before-christmas/58851


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## rjcruiser (Dec 9, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> i did my I-20 ride this morning and it was the normal above speed limit conditions..



It was above speed limit conditions...almost got nabbed around Talladega in the construction zone.  Had 5 cops at one of the on-ramps.  3 had people pulled over and the other two were waiting.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 11, 2011)

Any update for the upcoming weekend?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> inaccuweather is posting rumblings as well...
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/a-stormy-week-before-christmas/58851



I rumbled by posting the snow depth map for the period around Christmas yesterday. Fantasy land for now, but worth rumbling about.


----------



## Hornet22 (Dec 11, 2011)

Kinda not an IMBY question, but what do it look like in Pocahontas, Arky for the next 5 days? Would like an xperts forcast


----------



## jcountry (Dec 11, 2011)

Man-

I am ready for some snow.  Last winter was fun!


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## DDD (Dec 12, 2011)

I will buy Miguel lunch at Waffle House if we have snow on the ground at Christmas.  In fact, the way I see it, you could draw a line from St. Louis, to Lexington over to New York City and I would be surprised if there is one flake flying or one flake on the ground in that area south.  

It looks to me like La Nina is in charge and our solar flares are not helping this year.  

Fire up the sun Miguel!!!!


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## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2011)

nothin like a good wedgie


----------



## todd03blown (Dec 12, 2011)

DDD said:


> Well, we have this to look at or at the very least watch.
> 
> Doing lots of reading now in preparation for what is to come.  Maybe.
> 
> ...



Any more chances of this actually taking place during that timeframe listed?


----------



## cjones (Dec 12, 2011)

Just looking at the forecasted temps for the next 5-7 days, it looks like we're going to be pushing 70 during the day several times.

In Iowa, we would need a couple weeks of pretty cold nights and chilly days to get the 6-8" soil temp to <50*F to be able to put on Anhydrous Ammonia safely, so unless the temps take a severe nosedive in the 7-10 day range which I didn't look at, I would be extremely surprised if we had any snow on the ground for Ho-Ho day.

Hopefully the more edumicated folks will correct me if I'm wrong.


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2011)

Hard to believe a year ago today we only made it to 30°.  What a difference a year makes.


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## mewabbithunter (Dec 13, 2011)

Maybe January we get snow.


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## DDD (Dec 15, 2011)

Dare I say, we gotta start watching Christmas Eve and Christmas day.  One model has us in snow showers Christmas Eve.

It's still early in the game, 10 days out, but it has my attention.  For now.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2011)

Also, if you just look at the GFS its going to be a VERY wet pattern for the next 10-14 days and with that energy moving out of Canada every 3-5 days the temsp drop lower and lower.

GFS models estimate 6"+ for the next 12 days.


----------



## StriperAddict (Dec 15, 2011)

DDD said:


> Hard to believe a year ago today we only made it to 30°. What a difference a year makes.


 
Yeah, been seeing yellow jackets once in a while with these 60 + temps.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2011)

The Canadians say things may be a changing


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## DDD (Dec 15, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> The Canadians say things may be a changing



If we could just get the Europeans to agree.


----------



## higgy (Dec 15, 2011)




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## blood on the ground (Dec 15, 2011)

man what a nice spring day! im goin home washin winders!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> The Canadians say things may be a changing





DDD said:


> If we could just get the Europeans to agree.



Looks like Mellish may have gotten his winter forecast backwards.


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## mewabbithunter (Dec 15, 2011)

I will keep my fingers and toes crossed for Christmas!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2011)

mewabbithunter said:


> I will keep my fingers and toes crossed for Christmas!



You're gonna have to cross more than that..


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 16, 2011)

That's a very sad map MC.  Can't we get something better going on for us?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> That's a very sad map MC.  Can't we get something better going on for us?



I keep wishing, but the models keep going the other way.
Contrary to early Met projections, the Farmers Almanac seems to have once again nailed this one, unfortunately.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 16, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I keep wishing, but the models keep going the other way.
> Contrary to early Met projections, the Farmers Almanac seems to have once again nailed this one, unfortunately.



Those dang models!  Seems like everytime you get one worth looking at she gets scared and runs the other direction.  
One of these days we'll get one to hang around.


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## blood on the ground (Dec 16, 2011)

so we are back to normal now....wishin fer snow. ats it im movin north and west....wyoming here i come


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## Cowdog07 (Dec 16, 2011)

I second the move to Wyoming


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## bigox911 (Dec 16, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> That's a very sad map MC.  Can't we get something better going on for us?



Maybe a few days after Christmas...will just have to see


----------



## slip (Dec 16, 2011)

Can we atleast get something below 70degrees for christmas?


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 16, 2011)

you guys are fired.....


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 16, 2011)

Cowdog07 said:


> I second the move to Wyoming





Third...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> Third...



fourth..


----------



## elfiii (Dec 16, 2011)

StriperAddict said:


> Yeah, been seeing yellow jackets once in a while with these 60 + temps.



Once in a while? You must not being going outside much in the daytime. They are on streamlined promenade out here in Suwanee. I'm on the verge of breaking out the bathing suit, the sunblock and cranking up some old Buffet tunes. Boat drinks anybody?


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 17, 2011)

I got a sunburn rebuilding a chimney on wednsday!


----------



## marknga (Dec 17, 2011)

elfiii said:


> Once in a while? You must not being going outside much in the daytime. They are on streamlined promenade out here in Suwanee. I'm on the verge of breaking out the bathing suit, the sunblock and cranking up some old Buffet tunes. Boat drinks anybody?


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 17, 2011)

Looks like Oklahoma and Texas is going to get some snow.


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2011)

Well, 18Z GFS likes some of our chances for another white Christmas.  It's getting closer.


----------



## cjones (Dec 17, 2011)

DDD said:


> Well, 18Z GFS likes some of our chances for another white Christmas.  It's getting closer.



We'll be driving to NW Alabama on Christmas Eve, so it only makes sense that there is a nice coating of snow on the hills around Menlo/Mentone for our trip through there.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 18, 2011)

I still got my fingers and toes crossed!


----------



## StriperAddict (Dec 18, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> fourth..


Fifth. Jackson Hole, etc.  Love some Tetons (me talkin snow covered mountains, not...:nono and all that wildlife/space  !!



elfiii said:


> Once in a while? You must not being going outside much in the daytime. They are on streamlined promenade out here in Suwanee. I'm on the verge of breaking out the bathing suit, the sunblock and cranking up some old Buffet tunes. Boat drinks anybody?



Insect life has got to be a 'lil skitzso living here in GA...  one week 60's, the next 30's.  It's enough to drive dem bugs batty


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 18, 2011)

Winterstorm watches now posted for Texas and Oklahoma. Why can't that stuff come this way!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 19, 2011)

StriperAddict said:


> Fifth. Jackson Hole, etc.  Love some Tetons (me talkin snow covered mountains, not...:nono and all that wildlife/space  !!
> 
> 
> 
> Insect life has got to be a 'lil skitzso living here in GA...  one week 60's, the next 30's.  It's enough to drive dem bugs batty



looks like i will have plenty of folks going with me!!! hey MC can you help us out with packin da truck....you no messican style....we going ta have fun!!!!! no more IMBY questions...........just a lot of down hill, high speed action...


----------



## DDD (Dec 19, 2011)

Painful to report but this thread may only go one time around this year.  What a painful year to be a snow lover in GA.

If we don't get some serious cold in here this winter, the bugs are going to take over in the spring / summer.  January is looking warm and honestly, we may not have a winter this year.

Painful I tell you.  Painful.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 19, 2011)

Why are you torturing us like this DDD?!?!  Please make some cold weather, we're all counting on you!


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 19, 2011)

DDD said:


> Painful to report but this thread may only go one time around this year.  What a painful year to be a snow lover in GA.
> 
> If we don't get some serious cold in here this winter, the bugs are going to take over in the spring / summer.  January is looking warm and honestly, we may not have a winter this year.
> 
> Painful I tell you.  Painful.



Well, if it aint gonna snow then Id just assume it be warm. I like me some snow, but not the cold with no action!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 20, 2011)

dont tap out yet... March can be fun... just sayin


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Dec 20, 2011)

DDD said:


> Painful to report but this thread may only go one time around this year.  What a painful year to be a snow lover in GA.
> 
> If we don't get some serious cold in here this winter, the bugs are going to take over in the spring / summer.  January is looking warm and honestly, we may not have a winter this year.
> 
> Painful I tell you.  Painful.



good news


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2011)

Models this morning are all over the place.

Nice rain event coming tomorrow, still, the models keep teasing me around Christmas.  Also, long range 10-14 days out looks... skeptical.  Maybe I am reaching?

One thing that is not in our favore is the positive NAO.  Hard to get snow when that sucker is positive.  We need it to go negative.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2011)

Remember about 3 years back when we had a major upper level low rotate through and Athens got like 8"+ of snow?  I had about 4" in Dacula and the city of Atlanta had about an inch and people in NW GA were ticked that they didn't have a thing?  I kept calling it a snow bomb.  It was just a matter of where it went off.  The day before it was 50° and it was hard to imagine getting snow.  The upper level lows bring their own cold artic air with them and when they open up man do they drop the snow! 

That is the type of pattern that is trying to set up for January.  Closed upper level low or lows that rotates around, brings its own cold air and just bombs out somewhere over the deep south.  Because of this La Nina and the +NAO its pretty much the only shot we have this winter at getting a good snow.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 20, 2011)

DDD, you are the true definition of a perennial optimist.  Just when the situation looks hopeless, you're there with a spark to rekindle the flames of hope.  We'll keep our fingers crossed and, as always, we'll be hanging out and hoping for some positive updates.


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Dec 20, 2011)

DDD, any chance you could put the "free cat" picture back up.  I'm tired of looking at the Swamp Panther.  Its a painful reminder.


----------



## grunt0331 (Dec 20, 2011)

Sorry y'all.  It is all my fault we won't get any snow this year.  Ya see, we took the kiddos to see Santa at BPS.  They had these little snow saucers on sale and we bought 3 of them.  Guarantee that there will be no snow this year.

Now, if I can convince my wife to toss them in the garbage, then we will have 6-8" on the ground within 24 hours.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2011)

Wade Chandler said:


> DDD, you are the true definition of a perennial optimist.  Just when the situation looks hopeless, you're there with a spark to rekindle the flames of hope.  We'll keep our fingers crossed and, as always, we'll be hanging out and hoping for some positive updates.





Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> DDD, any chance you could put the "free cat" picture back up.  I'm tired of looking at the Swamp Panther.  Its a painful reminder.





Wade, I am trying to find a silver lining... somewhere.  The pattern is loaded as you will see in Matthew East video that I am going to post below.  Its really hard to tell what is going to happen.  What I don't have the luxary of this year is cold air being in place.  Last year was something I will have to remind myself about a lot in years to come.  


Strut, I can't put the dead cat picture back up until after the BCS National Championship.  When my dawgs lost to LSU, I lost my avatar.  Gots to honor my debt.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2011)

Great video to watch if you are trying to make Christmas plans and it involves being outdoors.  However be warned.  The models don't agree on how wet or dry we will be.  But Matthew East does a great job of breaking it down for ya.


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Dec 20, 2011)

DDD said:


> :
> Strut, I can't put the dead cat picture back up until after the BCS National Championship.  When my dawgs lost to LSU, I lost my avatar.  Gots to honor my debt.



I commend you honoring your debt.  Not much of that going around these days.  No, back to the task at hand, go find us some snow!


----------



## blood on the ground (Dec 20, 2011)

grunt0331 said:


> Sorry y'all.  It is all my fault we won't get any snow this year.  Ya see, we took the kiddos to see Santa at BPS.  They had these little snow saucers on sale and we bought 3 of them.  Guarantee that there will be now snow this year.
> 
> Now, if I can convince my wife to toss them in the garbage, then we will have 6-8" on the ground within 24 hours.



i dont think i would have said that sir... this is a rough group and they take snow very fersiriously..... Gods speed brother...


----------



## StriperAddict (Dec 20, 2011)

DDD said:


> The upper level lows bring their own cold artic air with them and when they open up man do they drop the snow!
> 
> That is the type of pattern that is trying to set up for January.


 
Bring that snow!

Or the cold...   yeah, the bug - killin' kind.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 20, 2011)

It sure dont look like we will have a good snow this year but its too early to tell right now.Winter will be here a few days officially.I just dont think it will get a good snow like last year.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 20, 2011)

Just curious, if cold weather kills bugs, then why do all the hunting shows in Alaska and Canada keep showing early fall hunters and fishermen covered in them?


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2011)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> Just curious, if cold weather kills bugs, then why do all the hunting shows in Alaska and Canada keep showing early fall hunters and fishermen covered in them?



. A mild winter means more bugs during the summer. 

Fact. It takes a hard freeze to kill off the bug population. That means that the temperature 18 inches deep in the soil must hit 26 degrees or below. Camilo says there is a direct correlation between a mild winter and a larger than average population of flies, mosquitoes and other lawn and agricultural pests............................................................................................................How wasps survive the winter
PARASITIC wasps siphon off antifreeze from their fly hosts to protect them from chilly winters—a discovery which could improve biological control of pest flies. 

Nasonia vitripennis wasps deposit their eggs in puparia, the cocoon-like casings of developing flies. When the wasps hatch they feed on the fly pupae. To survive the winter cold, both flies and wasps go into diapause—a form of hibernation in which they accumulate antifreeze compounds. 

But the wasps don't go into diapause until up to two months after the flies. To try to explain this, David Rivers of Loyola College in Maryland and his colleagues studied how the host's diapause affects parasite hardiness. They found that wasps reared on diapausing pupae could tolerate lower temperatures longer than wasps reared on pupae of hosts that hadn't entered diapause. 

And diapausing pupae contained twice as much of the antifreeze glycerol as non-diapausing pupae. Because glycerol levels in parasites ...


Also,

This is an old article but makes the point.

Cold weather can be good news in the South
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — While it was cold in Alabama on Monday morning — 14 at Huntsville, 17 at Birmingham and 25 at Mobile — the wave of arctic air is not unusual for this time of year and is in many ways a good thing for a state better known for summer heat. 
"The basic ecosystem requires cold weather. Insects need to be culled out. Peach growers have to have a certain number of chill days," said state climatologist John Christy, a professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. 

Monday's frigid temperatures were only a gentle sample of what Mother Nature is capable of in Alabama. The record cold temperature for the state was 27 degrees below zero, recorded at New Market north of Huntsville on Jan. 30, 1966, Christy said. 

This week's freezing temperatures were caused by a wave of arctic air behind a cold front that pushed across Alabama on Saturday, said Faith Borden, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Alabaster.

The cold weather was very good news at Alabama's only ski resort, Cloudmont in Mentone, where snowmaking machines have been working overtime to take advantage of winter's first prolonged cold snap. 

Even if they can't go skiing, Christy said most people like a few days of cold weather, even in Alabama. 

"The typical person likes to think he lives in a place with four seasons," Christy said. 

One of the best things about cold weather is that it helps control creepy, crawly critters like ants, roaches and mosquitos. 

"A lot of insect populations are kept down by winter cold," said Milton Ward, an associate biology professor at the University of Alabama. But Ward said it takes more than just a cold day to kill most Alabama insects. 

"It's the unusual hard freezes or periods of substantial duration that have the biggest effect. Most insects have adapted to surviving cold winters," Ward said. 

Arthur Appel, an entomologist at Auburn University, said this week's blast of cold weather might be particularly effective at culling down the bug population because it came after a period of warmer than usual temperatures. 

"The best thing that happens is for temperatures to drop very fast. One day it's 80 and the next day it's in the 20s. The more rapid the change, the more bugs get killed," Appel said. 

He said one negative effect of the cold weather could be to drive some bugs that normally live outside to seek comfort inside homes. 

"Argentine ants will come inside whenever the weather changes. It gets wet or chilly and they run inside very quickly," Appel said.


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## DDD (Dec 21, 2011)

I hope ya'll like rain.  Cause you are going to be sick of it by Monday.


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## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2011)

Looking a little more promising going into the 2nd half of Jan and into Feb for winter to hopefully show up.  At least some indication that the AO and NAO that brought us the sustained cold last year could be heading towards the more favorable negative territory around January 10-15 maybe.


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## DDD (Dec 21, 2011)

bigox911 said:


> Looking a little more promising going into the 2nd half of Jan and into Feb for winter to hopefully show up.  At least some indication that the AO and NAO that brought us the sustained cold last year could be heading towards the more favorable negative territory around January 10-15 maybe.



I don't trust any modeling right now beyond 72 hours and even then its questionable.

Hard to post when you don't trust the models and don't know which way to bend.

Last year was so much easier.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 21, 2011)

No pressure on you men at all, but it sure would be nice to get a foot of snow the weekend of the Frontier Festival.


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## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2011)

DDD said:


> I don't trust any modeling right now beyond 72 hours and even then its questionable.
> 
> Hard to post when you don't trust the models and don't know which way to bend.
> 
> Last year was so much easier.



No freakin joke.  Was watching Matt East this morning and he was showing how different two different runs of the GFS (I believe) looked just 12 hours apart and it was just ridiculous. It wasn't even that far out either.  Gotta love an active pattern though.  Hopefully the SSW that is being talked about really materializes well and helps us out some in January


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## grunt0331 (Dec 21, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> i dont think i would have said that sir... this is a rough group and they take snow very fersiriously..... Gods speed brother...



I was hesitant to own up to my infraction, but felt like I had to take DDD off the hook.  The beatin' I'll get from these yahoos ain't nothing compared to the one's I will get from my 6 and 8 year olds!


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## DDD (Dec 21, 2011)

Everyone sing with me....

"I'm dreaming of a wet and cold nasty Christmas... just like the ones in Seatle...."


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## Wade Chandler (Dec 21, 2011)

DDD said:


> Everyone sing with me....
> 
> "I'm dreaming of a wet and cold nasty Christmas... just like the ones in Seatle...."



I literally just started laughing out loud in the office!


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## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2011)

DDD said:


> Everyone sing with me....
> 
> "I'm dreaming of a wet and cold nasty Christmas... just like the ones in Seatle...."



Love some 40 degree days with rain


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## Bitteroot (Dec 21, 2011)

ya'll are fired....


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## slip (Dec 21, 2011)

DDD said:


> I hope ya'll like rain.  Cause you are going to be sick of it by Monday.


Well ... we need it i guess.


Nicodemus said:


> No pressure on you men at all, but it sure would be nice to get a foot of snow the weekend of the Frontier Festival.


I just hope it wont be 70degrees the whole time.


DDD said:


> Everyone sing with me....
> 
> "I'm dreaming of a wet and cold nasty Christmas... just like the ones in Seatle...."


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## blood on the ground (Dec 21, 2011)

grunt0331 said:


> I was hesitant to own up to my infraction, but felt like I had to take DDD off the hook.  The beatin' I'll get from these yahoos ain't nothing compared to the one's I will get from my 6 and 8 year olds!



well honesty is the best policy sir...  so maybe just maybe the snow gods will send a nother march 1993 our way and bless us with another blizzard here in the south... for the ones who remember, that was fun...first and only time i have seen it lightning and thunder and snow at the same time....very AWESOME!!


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## pstrahin (Dec 21, 2011)

I hope it snows whahoo deep to a giraffe!!


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## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2011)

Bitteroot said:


> ya'll are fired....



Hope ye got that roof on


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## Nicodemus (Dec 21, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> well honesty is the best policy sir...  so maybe just maybe the snow gods will send a nother march 1993 our way and bless us with another blizzard here in the south... for the ones who remember, that was fun...first and only time i have seen it lightning and thunder and snow at the same time....very AWESOME!!





I wouldn`t mind it now. In `93, however, I was a lineman. I left out early Saturday mornin` and got home sometime Monday night. And never got over 35 miles from the house the whole time. We had power out everywhere. Workin` in that one weren`t much fun!


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 21, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> I wouldn`t mind it now. In `93, however, I was a lineman. I left out early Saturday mornin` and got home sometime Monday night. And never got over 35 miles from the house the whole time. We had power out everywhere. Workin` in that one weren`t much fun!



Wasn't any fun here-we had 4-5 feet of snow in places out of that one with drifts up to fifteen feet deep or more. There were highway overpasses that were completely gone. There was snow level with the roof of my house in back, and my truck, mailbox, and everything else disappeared for a week or more. Then the power was out for a long time. It got down below zero the night after the snow and froze it hard as a rock so that you couldn't move it. I'd just as soon not see another one of those for awhile. It looked like those pics that 243 posts from yellerstone, except they're equipped to deal with it out there. We ain't.


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## krisjack (Dec 21, 2011)

Yeah my aunt called and said that they were going to get some snow so we went up there and we got stuck and we had to leave her house and got a  hotel room in 93.We stayed inside pretty much the whole time till we needed to eat we walk to the only open restaurant which they were running out of food lol.I had fun tho.I was in Ellijay by the way.I was around 11 years old then lol


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## blood on the ground (Dec 22, 2011)

Nicodemus said:


> I wouldn`t mind it now. In `93, however, I was a lineman. I left out early Saturday mornin` and got home sometime Monday night. And never got over 35 miles from the house the whole time. We had power out everywhere. Workin` in that one weren`t much fun!





NCHillbilly said:


> Wasn't any fun here-we had 4-5 feet of snow in places out of that one with drifts up to fifteen feet deep or more. There were highway overpasses that were completely gone. There was snow level with the roof of my house in back, and my truck, mailbox, and everything else disappeared for a week or more. Then the power was out for a long time. It got down below zero the night after the snow and froze it hard as a rock so that you couldn't move it. I'd just as soon not see another one of those for awhile. It looked like those pics that 243 posts from yellerstone, except they're equipped to deal with it out there. We ain't.



WOW i guess i wasnt thinkin about the linemen...or the goings on north of here.. maybe i will just wish fer another 8 to 10 and call it a day...


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## SnowHunter (Dec 22, 2011)

I'm w/ Bitterbro. Yall are fired 

Really could use a nice snow here n there, or at least consistently cold weather. This warm cold warm cold wreaks havoc on livestock


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2011)

It's pretty bad when my grass is growing and I have to use a Thermacell in December!


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## grunt0331 (Dec 22, 2011)

blood on the ground said:


> well honesty is the best policy sir...  so maybe just maybe the snow gods will send a nother march 1993 our way and bless us with another blizzard here in the south... for the ones who remember, that was fun...first and only time i have seen it lightning and thunder and snow at the same time....very AWESOME!!



The 2 snow events I remeber most were the one in 1993.  I lived in Fayetteville at the time and we had 12 inches in some places around the house.  

The other was in the early 80s.  Power was out everywhere for days on end.  Our house had a fireplace in a room you could close off.  My best friend lived down the road and they had a gas stove.  We would cook at their house and both families would live/sleep in our den where we had some heat.  I'm sure our parents were about to go nuts, but the kids loved it.


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## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2011)

It's a ways out, but sure looks better than a low in the 60's in December


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 23, 2011)

I looked at that forecast yesterday. It's gonna have to do some wiggling to bring about a drastic change, but at least the NE mountains have a shot at a dusting.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2011)

12 day out fantasy land forecast.

Can anyone say SNOW BOMB for middle Georgia??



As fun as fantasy land forecasts are, I don't put much weight in them as there is just too much time for things to change, however, this one is an interesting set-up. Here's another look at it.


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## gobbleinwoods (Dec 24, 2011)

Is it too early to stock up on milk and white bread?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 24, 2011)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Is it too early to stock up on milk and white bread?



Yes...


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## mewabbithunter (Dec 24, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12 day out fantasy land forecast.
> 
> Can anyone say SNOW BOMB for middle Georgia??
> 
> ...



Hope this forecast sticks! Merry Christmas everybody!


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 24, 2011)

*Tim Allen Tool Time grunt!*  



Miguel Cervantes said:


> 12 day out fantasy land forecast.
> 
> Can anyone say SNOW BOMB for middle Georgia??
> 
> ...


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## blood on the ground (Dec 25, 2011)

This time last year 4 inches of snow on the ground


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 25, 2011)

mewabbithunter said:


> Hope this forecast sticks! Merry Christmas everybody!



So far it hasn't. But there's still time.


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## DDD (Dec 25, 2011)

After the first of the year the pattern is going to change.  Book it.

Will that mean snow for us?  Not sure, but the pattern is going to change to a colder one.

Have faith.  On that note, I am going to be out of pocket here and there between now and New Years. 

Merry Christmas and Happy New Years peeps!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 26, 2011)

DDD said:


> After the first of the year the pattern is going to change.  Book it.
> 
> Will that mean snow for us?  Not sure, but the pattern is going to change to a colder one.
> 
> ...



CME's are on the rise, albeit not a direct hit, one was released yesterday that will deal a glancing blow to Earth and ultimately effecting the NAO, if not drastically, at least towards a more neutral trend. Hopefully with a bit more heliophysical activity we will see it go Negative.

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20111225_075000_anim.tim-den.gif


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 26, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> CME's are on the rise, albeit not a direct hit, one was released yesterday that will deal a glancing blow to Earth and ultimately effecting the NAO, if not drastically, at least towards a more neutral trend. Hopefully with a bit more heliophysical activity we will see it go Negative.
> 
> http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20111225_075000_anim.tim-den.gif
> 
> ...


I thought I felt a warm breeze!:santatwo:


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## DDD (Dec 27, 2011)

Ground blind will be needed this afternoon.  Gonna be a blow'n


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## DDD (Dec 27, 2011)

EURO modeling this morning has one heck of an extreme scenario playing out a week from today, but it is the only one.  It brings some extreme cold all the way to the panhandle of Florida and just hammers New York City up the Eastern seaboard with a huge snow storm.  

The GFS is much less impressive.  Brings a front across with some colder temps but nothing as extreme as the EURO.  

Not really sure which way to bend, but I will try and keep my eyes on it.  Right now if you can not tell, I don't buy the extreme solution of the EURO.

NAO as Miguel has eluded to will start to simmer down in the next few weeks and hopefuly will go negative around the January 17-20th time frame.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2011)

DDD said:


> NAO as Miguel has eluded to will start to simmer down in the next few weeks and hopefuly will go negative around the January 17-20th time frame.



Just got the 14 day forecast for the NAO, and it looks GOOD for that time frame....


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## NCHillbilly (Dec 27, 2011)

Supposed to snow here tonight.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2011)

January might be just the beginning of a longer than expected cool down, not just for this winter. Oh MY!!! what are the global warming idiots going to say about this one??

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/multimedia/agu-fall2011-media.html

And if you want to add validity to the above link and other statements made, try and wrap your brain around this article. It is something we have been noticing for several years, but just couldn't get our hands on all of the correlative data to put it together like this gentleman has.

http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/solarnao.htm


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 27, 2011)

Just happened to have it on Fox News (which never happens) and the weather came on. There was a meteorologist standing in front of a map, and I watched intently, but for some reason didn't hear a word she said..


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## TurkeyKiller12 (Dec 27, 2011)

It oughta be illegal to look that good. Lol


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## shakey gizzard (Dec 27, 2011)

Talk about hot flare up!


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## StriperAddict (Dec 27, 2011)

Oh no, are we gonna start talkin' about weather models again?


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## savreds (Dec 27, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> January might be just the beginning of a longer than expected cool down, not just for this winter. Oh MY!!! what are the global warming idiots going to say about this one??
> 
> http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/multimedia/agu-fall2011-media.html
> 
> ...



Thanks Miguel... after trying to decipher that second link I now have permanent dain bramage!!!


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## Wade Chandler (Dec 27, 2011)

Snow flurries up here on the mountain this afternoon!!!


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## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 27, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just happened to have it on Fox News (which never happens) and the weather came on. There was a meteorologist standing in front of a map, and I watched intently, but for some reason didn't hear a word she said..
> 
> View attachment 640067


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## Wade Chandler (Dec 27, 2011)

I'll try to get some pics up in the morning, but we have a dusting (let's say around 1/4 of an inch) on the ground and it's still snowing.  I know that doesn't sound like much, but it's better than nothing.  The ground is white, and I've got 38 guests here at the Inn that are going to be surprised when they wake up in the morning!


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## todd03blown (Dec 28, 2011)

Looks like the local weather peeps are throwing artic cold and snow around for the 6-10 day outlook.  Could this be the first measurable snowfall since winter started? I sure hope so


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## Wade Chandler (Dec 28, 2011)

27 degrees this morning with a half inch of snow on the ground.  Can't upload pics from my phone because the cell service is terrible up here.
Weather station recorded 34 mph wind during the night and I'd bet it was a little higher than that just based on the location of the station.


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## mewabbithunter (Dec 28, 2011)

todd03blown said:


> Looks like the local weather peeps are throwing artic cold and snow around for the 6-10 day outlook.  Could this be the first measurable snowfall since winter started? I sure hope so



Firsthand weather is talking about possible snow too!


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## Matt.M (Dec 28, 2011)

Thanks for the info on Firsthand Weather site.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 30, 2011)

todd03blown said:


> Looks like the local weather peeps are throwing artic cold and snow around for the 6-10 day outlook.  Could this be the first measurable snowfall since winter started? I sure hope so



Maybe a dusting way up in N. Ga. but the timing won't be right with the cold chasing the moisture.

Here's a good NOAA GFS loop that shows the progression of the cold air moving in Monday night.

I hope you folks have a good stock of firewood..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/...NATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


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## SnowHunter (Dec 30, 2011)

We had about 45 seconds total of sleet today. No doubting the sleet as I just happened to be in the back pasture on the 4wheeler with no jacket


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## Jeff C. (Dec 30, 2011)

SnowHunter said:


> We had about 45 seconds total of sleet today. No doubting the sleet as I just happened to be in the back pasture on the 4wheeler with no jacket



 Shmoo!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 30, 2011)

Can you say BRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!


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## Greene728 (Dec 30, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Can you say BRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!
> 
> View attachment 640726



Well crap!
Ready for spring!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 30, 2011)

Greene728 said:


> Well crap!
> Ready for spring!!!



Interestingly enough, we received a glancing blow by a CME on 12/28 and now we see a shift in the NAO allowing this cold to dip south. Just a few more CME's on a more direct path and we'll be in for a real treat...


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 31, 2011)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Interestingly enough, we received a glancing blow by a CME on 12/28 and now we see a shift in the NAO allowing this cold to dip south. Just a few more CME's on a more direct path and we'll be in for a real treat...



Is it going to happen?


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## DDD (Dec 31, 2011)

Patients is a virtue.  Its going to be cold Monday and Tuesday for sure.

Hopefuly the NAO goes south for sure.  Even if it will just go neutral that will help a lot.


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## DDD (Jan 1, 2012)

Wade will probably get some flurries or maybe even a snow shower after the front pushes through.

Make sure you got some firewood for the fire place, its going to be cold the next 2 days.  The wind is going to be whipping tomorrow making it feel below freezing all day tomorrow.

Tuesday the high for Dacula is 37.  Low of 22.  Snuggle factor of 10.  Keeping my eye on the January 11-14th time frame.  GFS puts a bomb in the SE 2 weeks from now.  At least hope is alive.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 1, 2012)

DDD said:


> Wade will probably get some flurries or maybe even a snow shower after the front pushes through.
> 
> Make sure you got some firewood for the fire place, its going to be cold the next 2 days.  The wind is going to be whipping tomorrow making it feel below freezing all day tomorrow.
> 
> Tuesday the high for Dacula is 37.  Low of 22.  Snuggle factor of 10.  Keeping my eye on the January 11-14th time frame.  GFS puts a bomb in the SE 2 weeks from now.  At least hope is alive.



What about the Euro?


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## blood on the ground (Jan 1, 2012)

I open my pool this weekend


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 1, 2012)

DDD said:


> Wade will probably get some flurries or maybe even a snow shower after the front pushes through.
> 
> Make sure you got some firewood for the fire place, its going to be cold the next 2 days.  The wind is going to be whipping tomorrow making it feel below freezing all day tomorrow.
> 
> Tuesday the high for Dacula is 37.  Low of 22.  Snuggle factor of 10.  Keeping my eye on the January 11-14th time frame.  GFS puts a bomb in the SE 2 weeks from now.  At least hope is alive.




Looks like the real bomb is around the 16th and 17th, but then, it is a fantasy land forecast at this point. Still, it is encouraging to see the NAO forecast trending neutral to negative and these kind of maps showing up on the GFS.


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## DDD (Jan 1, 2012)

I saw the 300+ hour forcast.  No way to believe that hype.  Its all fantasy land.  However, at least its not forecasting 60+ temps.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> I saw the 300+ hour forcast.  No way to believe that hype.  Its all fantasy land.  However, at least its not forecasting 60+ temps.



Yep, that's why it's called fantasy land. So we have something to ogle over in hopes of something happening..

I hope you folks like the current 9 am temps. This is going to be our high for tomorrow..


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

Second day in a row, this time cold chasing the moisture. We need a few good CME's to nail this one down and have a good MLK day snow storm.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

Hey NCHillbilly, you're gonna see white stuff starting in about two hours...
Windchill in Boone, NC is 9 degrees.


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## NCHillbilly (Jan 2, 2012)

Yeah, they're calling for 2"-4" here tonight, with sub-zero wind chills, and temps in the low teens.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

This makes me feel good about our 42 degrees with a 39 degree windchill. Current conditions at Boone, NC.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

Not sure where these NC weathermen get their maps, but I don't see it happening here.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

From the looks of the slopes at Sugar Mt. they need it to be coming down a lot harder than this!!

http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/indextop.phtml


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

Thanks to a short wave over the mid-west the N. Ga. mountains might see a flurry or dusting of snow tonight.


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## NCHillbilly (Jan 2, 2012)

Snowing pretty good here, ground is white, 26*, wind howling.


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## DDD (Jan 2, 2012)

Some of yall down around McDonough or just north of Macon need to run outside and tell me what you see.

Radar says its snowing south of ATL but its moving fast.


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## pbradley (Jan 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Some of yall down around McDonough or just north of Macon need to run outside and tell me what you see.
> 
> Radar says its snowing south of ATL but its moving fast.



A FB friend says she has flurries in McDonough.


----------



## cjones (Jan 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Some of yall down around McDonough or just north of Macon need to run outside and tell me what you see.
> 
> Radar says its snowing south of ATL but its moving fast.



Nothing going on here on the far southeast corner of Fayetteville (actually ~1 mile into Clayton Co.).


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## Sugar Plum (Jan 2, 2012)

Too dark and windy to see much of anything outside, here in Forsyth. Sure is COLD, though!!


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## slip (Jan 2, 2012)

DDD said:


> Some of yall down around McDonough or just north of Macon need to run outside and tell me what you see.
> 
> Radar says its snowing south of ATL but its moving fast.



No snow here, just insane winds.


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## Sugar Plum (Jan 2, 2012)

slip said:


> No snow here, just insane winds.



Ridiculously insane winds! I keep checking the forcast to make sure we're not under a tornado warning...


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 2, 2012)

slip said:


> No snow here, just insane winds.





Sugar Plum said:


> Ridiculously insane winds! I keep checking the forcast to make sure we're not under a tornado warning...


The winds have been howling here all day!!


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## Sugar Plum (Jan 2, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> The winds have been howling here all day!!



Something just hit the house


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## mountainpass (Jan 2, 2012)

24 and flurries.


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> Something just hit the house


........Hope everything is Okay!!



mountainpass said:


> 24 and flurries.


38 and windy here........East Central Ga.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

Looks like some flurries up in NE Ga.


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## Sugar Plum (Jan 2, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> ........Hope everything is Okay!!
> 
> 
> 38 and windy here........East Central Ga.



pretty sure it's all good. I decided to just wait til morning to take a survey of the yard. You know, when it's not dark as all get out...pretty sure something was trying to chase after me out there....


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## pbradley (Jan 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> pretty sure it's all good. I decided to just wait til morning to take a survey of the yard. You know, when it's not dark as all get out...pretty sure something was trying to chase after me out there....



Probably Bigfoot. Or Quack.


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## doenightmare (Jan 2, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> pretty sure it's all good. I decided to just wait til morning to take a survey of the yard. You know, when it's not dark as all get out...pretty sure something was trying to chase after me out there....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 2, 2012)

pbradley said:


> Probably Bigfoot. Or Quack.



There's a difference?


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## doenightmare (Jan 2, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There's a difference?



Very minor one - you have to do mitochondrial DNA test to see it.....


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## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 2, 2012)

doenightmare said:


> Very minor one - you have to do mitochondrial DNA test to see it.....


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 3, 2012)

In the longer term...everyone needs to focus happy thoughts on middle/end of next week.


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## todd03blown (Jan 3, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> In the longer term...everyone needs to focus happy thoughts on middle/end of next week.



Just how good could these happy thoughts turn out? spill a little of the beans at least


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 3, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> Just how good could these happy thoughts turn out? spill a little of the beans at least



Here's your first clue. Moisture moving up out of the Gulf..

Insert Jeopardy final question music here.


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## SnowHunter (Jan 3, 2012)

Yup winter is OFFICIALLY here. Even the soaked grain was mostly frozen this morning


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 3, 2012)

Second clue, cold moving in from the NW. Problem thus far is that the two do not interact. We are reaping the benefits of minor M-class flares currently, but they don't seem to be enough to influence the NAO and nail down this forecast as a sure thing. If AR1389 would spit out some CME's then we would be in business.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's your first clue. Moisture moving up out of the Gulf..
> 
> Insert Jeopardy final question music here.



But what are the chances of cold air being in place???


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 3, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> But what are the chances of cold air being in place???



Post 402...


----------



## DDD (Jan 3, 2012)

Until the HPS sets up over Greenland (if it ever does) we are not going to have any real shot at a good snow.

These massive ULL's come out of the Alaskan pipeline, round Texas, the Cold Air is in Canada and we get a good soaking of rain, the cold air piles in behind.... rinse and repeat.

The GFS keeps giving out 10 day fantasy storms, the EURO pretty much agrees 10 days out.

As we get closer, they resolve the Upper Jet, along with the ACTUAL placement of the HPS and they resolve the massive bowling balls coming out of the West.

Frustrating.  I have gotten spoiled over the last 3 years.

If we could get one of these cold shots like we got last night to roll in and STAY for 4-5 days and let one of those bowling balls catch up, we will be in business.  Big Time.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 3, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Second clue, cold moving in from the NW. Problem thus far is that the two do not interact. We are reaping the benefits of minor M-class flares currently, but they don't seem to be enough to influence the NAO and nail down this forecast as a sure thing. If AR1389 would spit out some CME's then we would be in business.



Thanks for the clues! Appreciate all the detailed weather information you all provide as it makes for a great learning experience!


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 3, 2012)

DDD said:


> Until the HPS sets up over Greenland (if it ever does) we are not going to have any real shot at a good snow.
> 
> These massive ULL's come out of the Alaskan pipeline, round Texas, the Cold Air is in Canada and we get a good soaking of rain, the cold air piles in behind.... rinse and repeat.
> 
> ...



Thanks DDD! Hopefully we will get at least one get snow this winter since they are so much fun.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 3, 2012)

Is this wind at least gonna settle down?


----------



## Naturegirl (Jan 4, 2012)

Patiently waiting for the latest updates.


----------



## DDD (Jan 4, 2012)

Naturegirl said:


> Patiently waiting for the latest updates.



No one run of any model is the same.  It changes every 6 hours.

Last run of the EURO last night shows rain on Monday and then another really big cold shot about Wednesday - Thursday of next week with some moisture hanging around.

GFS shows rain Saturday - Sunday.  And then next week it just shows rain about Wednesday.

NAO looks to be headed back positive (which is bad) while the AO looks to be negative.  (which is good)

Last year it all went in the favor of snow and we got it.  It's going to be hard to pull a rabit out of the hat this year. 

One thing I see is the pattern and over all look in Canada is changing.  Also, if we had some snow pack down across the midwest states, it helps to let those big storm systems "slide" south.  There is not one flake on the ground in Nebraska right now.  They should have 6" there right now.  Hopefuly the shift in Canada with some High Pressure and systems moving things around up there will transfer into helping us out down stream.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 4, 2012)

This is just rediculous...


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 4, 2012)

I don't know what that means.......


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 4, 2012)

Bitteroot said:


> I don't know what that means.......



the -10, 0 and 10 bold lines are the 850mb temperature lines (celcius) which can be a good indicator as to what the precipitation would fall as (rain, ice, snow).  The shaded areas are precipitation over the 12hr prior to that date and time and you can use the index on the left to see how much in inches of water that should hit the ground.  Looks like light frozen stuff for south ga with the cold chasing the moisture.  That frame is 228 hours from now so a lot could change.


----------



## Bitteroot (Jan 4, 2012)

I don't know what that means.....












either....


11...ish......


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 4, 2012)

Bitteroot said:


> I don't know what that means.....
> 
> 
> either....
> ...


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 5, 2012)

Looks like something is brewing around the 11th?
What are our GON weather experts thinking????


----------



## cjones (Jan 5, 2012)

DDD said:


> Also, if we had some snow pack down across the midwest states, it helps to let those big storm systems "slide" south.  There is not one flake on the ground in Nebraska right now.  They should have 6" there right now.



Saw a Facebook message from a buddy in northern Idaho that it was 45* at 5:30am there today.  Another buddy said it was supposed to be above 60* in Iowa today.  Neither is very promising for creating some midwest 'slideways' for snow to get down this far.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2012)

Yeap...big rainy (for us) upper level low coming somewhere over the SE.  Good news is, hopefully that will be the start to winter finally getting going down here.  By the time it gets up NE around Maine, it looks to be a very strong low funneling cold air down south.  Hopefully it will also lead to blocking around Greenland, which looks to be at least a more neutral NAO, if not a little negative.  The forecasts also have the jackleg, extremely positive, AO breaking down finally and heading towards neutral/negative.  The end of January and in to February is looking much better than winter thus far


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2012)

Temp anomalies for day 11...cooollddd 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


----------



## DDD (Jan 5, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Temp anomalies for day 11...cooollddd
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif



I aprove this message!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 5, 2012)

Ok, I need an explanation of that map.  I know it means cold, but I need a point of reference since we have the same colors over us as they have in Alaska. . .


----------



## DDD (Jan 5, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> Ok, I need an explanation of that map.  I know it means cold, but I need a point of reference since we have the same colors over us as they have in Alaska. . .



Alright Wade here goes...

Imagine ther is a giant boulder in the air over Alaska.  Imagine Cold Air is water and it is running around that boulder and flowing south across Colorado.  Now imagine there is another boulderover Texas, water hits that boulder and shoots right towards Georgia and up the NE Coast.  That is what the cold air is doing behind that front.


Now because the front is so strong it pops a Low Pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.  That is why all the precip is in the gulf and draped over Florida.  

Miguel is talking about the moisture that lays in on this map over south GA.  I will believe this scenario when I see it.  Cold air chasing moisture never works.

Bigger story is the amount of rain we are looking at next week if the maps are right.  Whoa Nelly.  Lanier is gonna be a rising if it verifies.  The pattern is changing though.  Its going to give us a shot at the end of January or in February.  It maybe last winter in reverse.  Remeber by February we were nice and sunny.

February may make us pay for December.  Stay tuned, but enjoy the nice weather while we got it.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 5, 2012)

DDD, I think I was on the same page there,  I understand the map Miguel posted, I just wasn't sure of the representation of numbers on the map that bigox linked to.  It showed (I'm guessing) a percentage away from average temps, or something close to that, is that correct?


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 5, 2012)

I'm fairly sure it means the percentage chance the temperature is going to be above or below normal temperature.   The CPC has what they consider a daily average based on data from 1971-2000 that they use as their "normal temp" for that map.  Based on that map, looks like they are saying there's greater than a 50% chance the eastern half of the country is going to have below normal temps in that time period.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 5, 2012)

Thank yopu for the update GON weather experts!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2012)

mewabbithunter said:


> Thank yopu for the update GON weather experts!



Mike Bobo is an expert (and you see where that gets you) We just do this stuff cause we love it. If we ever were to get paid for it we'd be just as bad as the rest of em...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 5, 2012)

Here's a great article by Brad Panovich, WCNC, regarding the coming changes.

http://wxbrad.com/?p=2576


----------



## DDD (Jan 6, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Mike Bobo is an expert (and you see where that gets you) We just do this stuff cause we love it. If we ever were to get paid for it we'd be just as bad as the rest of em...



True DAT!!!


----------



## kracker (Jan 6, 2012)

Thanks to all the guys that can make sense of this stuff. I depend more on y'all than I do our local weather guys.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 6, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a great article by Brad Panovich, WCNC, regarding the coming changes.
> 
> http://wxbrad.com/?p=2576



Thanks for the update!


----------



## DDD (Jan 7, 2012)

Something messed up about Thunder and Lightning the first week of January.  Good grief.


----------



## pbradley (Jan 7, 2012)

DDD said:


> Something messed up about Thunder and Lightning the first week of January.  Good grief.



I fished a tournament on February 28 a few years ago. Rain, thunder and lightning like you wouldn't believe, tornadoes all over the place. Next day was March 1 and it snowed like crazy. Weird.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 7, 2012)

pbradley said:


> I fished a tournament on February 28 a few years ago. Rain, thunder and lightning like you wouldn't believe, tornadoes all over the place. Next day was March 1 and it snowed like crazy. Weird.



Don't be shocked if we get another winter like that with a late snow / ice storm. We are wayyyy over due for a good ice event.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 8, 2012)

Firsthand weather is talking about the possibility of snow next week. What are you guys (DDD, Miguel) thinking?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2012)

mewabbithunter said:


> Firsthand weather is talking about the possibility of snow next week. What are you guys (DDD, Miguel) thinking?



what is firsthand weather??  If it's a weather blog, I don't visit those much. Seems to be more wishful thinking forecast than objective map reading. 

Usually if we see something sketchy we'll call it for what it is, a fantasy land forecast or model.

Thus far, I'm not seeing much to be concerned with set in concrete. There are a couple of scenario's that could unfold if Atlantic blocking sets up sooner than expected, but with it not showing up on the models right now that makes it a "wishful thinking" forecast.

This is as close as it comes on the models, but it is 12 days out. That is fantasy land.




Personally, I'm waiting on the new AR (sunspot) to rotate on around facing us, and counting on it to remain active. Then we'll see what the correlative flares and cme's do to influence the NAO and make some significant change.

This deep into the season I am getting more nervous than giddy, and would rather spring just hurry up and get here. This borderline temp pattern and frequent moisture add up to bad things that we really haven't seen since the 70's.


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2012)

So here is some good news.  


After a nice rainfall from now to Wednesday we look to move into a cold stormy pattern.

So... one more week and then it will be fun.   I have waited long enough... what is one more week?


----------



## DDD (Jan 8, 2012)

This is 9 days out but the blocking is there.  Highlighted in Red.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 8, 2012)

DDD said:


> This is 9 days out but the blocking is there.  Highlighted in Red.



That blocking needs to slide a little further south and grow in size to nail this one shut..


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 8, 2012)

DDD said:


> So here is some good news.
> 
> 
> After a nice rainfall from now to Wednesday we look to move into a cold stormy pattern.
> ...



DDD. Thanks man!


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 9, 2012)

Could the AO be headed negative?


----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 9, 2012)

Dude, I hope so!


----------



## DDD (Jan 9, 2012)

Matthew East lays it out there very well this morning.  Could not paint it for you any better than what he has.

And for those wondering what a CAD event is... its not snow.  How about that?  If what he depicts comes true... I hope the folks on the NE side of the state have generators.

But it has to happen first.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> Matthew East lays it out there very well this morning.  Could not paint it for you any better than what he has.
> 
> And for those wondering what a CAD event is... its not snow.  How about that?  If what he depicts comes true... I hope the folks on the NE side of the state have generators.
> 
> ...



That was a good video. Guess I better get some gas for the ole firelogs!


----------



## DDD (Jan 9, 2012)

Weather Por n from a year ago today....



> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> 457 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011
> ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
> ...


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> Weather Por n from a year ago today....


DONT EVER DO THAT TO ME AGAIN i skipped right to the weather posting and didnt read your comments...LOL


----------



## DDD (Jan 9, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> DONT EVER DO THAT TO ME AGAIN i skipped right to the weather posting and didnt read your comments...LOL


----------



## DDD (Jan 9, 2012)

18Z GFS has snow here this weekend.  Waiting on the 0Z to see what happens.

Interestingly enough the NAM looks very good for possible winter set up Sunday into Monday.  (It doesn't go that far out, but if it follows the GFS we might be in business)

It's only Monday though, so we will have to wait and see what happens.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> 18Z GFS has snow here this weekend.  Waiting on the 0Z to see what happens.
> 
> Interestingly enough the NAM looks very good for possible winter set up Sunday into Monday.  (It doesn't go that far out, but if it follows the GFS we might be in business)
> 
> It's only Monday though, so we will have to wait and see what happens.


Good to see the "free cat" avatar back again!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 10, 2012)

DDD said:


> 18Z GFS has snow here this weekend.  Waiting on the 0Z to see what happens.
> 
> Interestingly enough the NAM looks very good for possible winter set up Sunday into Monday.  (It doesn't go that far out, but if it follows the GFS we might be in business)
> 
> It's only Monday though, so we will have to wait and see what happens.


hhmmm snow for the birthday party...how nice


RUTTNBUCK said:


> Good to see the "free cat" avatar back again!!



aint it awesome!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 10, 2012)

DDD said:


> 18Z GFS has snow here this weekend.  Waiting on the 0Z to see what happens.
> 
> Interestingly enough the NAM looks very good for possible winter set up Sunday into Monday.  (It doesn't go that far out, but if it follows the GFS we might be in business)
> 
> It's only Monday though, so we will have to wait and see what happens.



I sure would like to see more resolve between the models on this one. It showed up a couple of weeks ago on the fantasy land forecast in a big way, the immediately disappeared. Now it's back as an anomale which is a bit puzzling.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 10, 2012)




----------



## StriperAddict (Jan 10, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I sure would like to see more resolve between the models on this one. It showed up a couple of weeks ago on the fantasy land forecast in a big way, the immediately disappeared. Now it's back as an anomale which is a bit puzzling.



I'd love me some anomale's turning into white stuff 

As for this morning, I had to get my knife out...



to cut thru this fog!


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 10, 2012)

How much imby ?


----------



## DDD (Jan 10, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I sure would like to see more resolve between the models on this one. It showed up a couple of weeks ago on the fantasy land forecast in a big way, the immediately disappeared. Now it's back as an anomale which is a bit puzzling.



There is not one model out there CMC, EURO, GFS, NAM... any of them, that can be trusted beyond 72 hours.  If you look at the GFS from 24 hours ago it looks totally different than it does this morning for the same day 7 days out.

The atmospher is going through a serious shift and that is one to colder temps and blocking and some serious cold air that is going to be residing up in Canada that has not been there all season.  

Hopefully it gets interesting sooner than later.

Wade may see some snow showers up on the hill Thursday night.  That much I feel sure about.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 10, 2012)

Thanks for the positive thoughts DDD.  I'll let you know what it looks like up on the mtn. Thursday night.  We'll keep our fingers crossed!


----------



## Brian Groce (Jan 10, 2012)

DDD, I'm going to Gatlinburg this weekend.  See if you can't muster up some snow for the mountains!!!!
Oh, glad to see the free cat back!


----------



## jbird1 (Jan 11, 2012)




----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 11, 2012)




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## Wade Chandler (Jan 11, 2012)

We've got frozen stuff falling from the sky. . . unfortunately it's hail.  Really, a hail storm in January?!?!?  We better get some serious snow before the winter is over.


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## SnowHunter (Jan 11, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> We've got frozen stuff falling from the sky. . . unfortunately it's hail.  Really, a hail storm in January?!?!?  We better get some serious snow before the winter is over.



HAIL!?!?! 

Told Na it felt almost like tornado weather first thing this mornin... tepid, VERY humid, drizzly and lots of lightening. 

I'm ready for winter to actually stay awhile instead of short visits!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 11, 2012)

Looks like we have our first Winter Weather Advisory of 2012!!!  Only for light snow, and just up here in the mtns., but DDD called it days before the NWS.  Hopefully this is the start of good things to come.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 11, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> HAIL!?!?!
> 
> Told Na it felt almost like tornado weather first thing this mornin... tepid, VERY humid, drizzly and lots of lightening.
> 
> I'm ready for winter to actually stay awhile instead of short visits!



It was. Did some damage up in North Carolina tonight.


----------



## DDD (Jan 12, 2012)

GFS last night advertising cold air coming south next week.  I hope thats right.  

I am not sure why but I think today may be an interesting day weather model wise.  Just a gut feeling I have.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Jan 12, 2012)

DDD said:


> GFS last night advertising cold air coming south next week.  I hope thats right.
> 
> I am not sure why but I think today may be an interesting day weather model wise.  Just a gut feeling I have.



Let's see some model screenshots!


----------



## DDD (Jan 12, 2012)

Nitram4891 said:


> Let's see some model screenshots!



This is off the 00Z last night, the 6z held serve with the cold air coming south.


----------



## DDD (Jan 12, 2012)

DDD said:


> This is off the 00Z last night, the 6z held serve with the cold air coming south.



Notice how the cold air hangs around 20 hours after the fact.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 12, 2012)

reckon they could send some down our way? 
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/winter/story/2012-01-12/anchorage-alaska-snow-winter-storm/52517278/1


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## mountainpass (Jan 12, 2012)

30 degrees and light snow.


----------



## jbird1 (Jan 12, 2012)

1st flakes of the yr here in N Forsyth


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 12, 2012)

jbird1 said:


> 1st flakes of the yr here in N Forsyth



County or the City??


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 12, 2012)

Sugar Plum said:


> County or the City??



Whichever one it is up north.........


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## SnowHunter (Jan 12, 2012)

I just want the wind to quit.. its whistling through the dang windows  Not sure how I'll get from the house to the barn and back in one piece.. at least the milk won't blow away 

They're sayin its supposed to be 28deg around 7am tomorrow  

I gotta drain all the water hoses tonight too...ahhhh farmin


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 12, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Whichever one it is up north.........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 12, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> I just want the wind to quit.. its whistling through the dang windows  Not sure how I'll get from the house to the barn and back in one piece.. at least the milk won't blow away
> 
> They're sayin its supposed to be 28deg around 7am tomorrow
> 
> I gotta drain all the water hoses tonight too...ahhhh farmin


 Tromp through a few fresh cow patties, that'll help hold you down while walkin...


----------



## StriperAddict (Jan 12, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tromp through a few fresh cow patties, that'll help hold you down while walkin...



and tucking the garden hose under the patties will keep 'em from freezin tonight, too


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 12, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tromp through a few fresh cow patties, that'll help hold you down while walkin...





StriperAddict said:


> and tucking the garden hose under the patties will keep 'em from freezin tonight, too







Who's gonna help me tromp around 68 ac to get enough cow pies to cover 300ft of hose?


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 12, 2012)

Snowing in Hickory Flat and sticking on deck so far. Love it!


----------



## DDD (Jan 13, 2012)

I saw some flurries this morning.  Woop i tee do.


----------



## Backlasher82 (Jan 13, 2012)

Yeah, it's flurring right now in Rabun, I'll be happy if it's the only snow we get this year.


----------



## StriperAddict (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> I saw some flurries this morning. Woop i tee do.


 
Lets geaux with some sneaux already!  



SnowHunter said:


> Who's gonna help me tromp around 68 ac to get enough cow pies to cover 300ft of hose?


 
Oops, sorry, I hadn't thought about that


----------



## ryano (Jan 13, 2012)

Backlasher82 said:


> I'll be happy if it's the only snow we get this year.



I think your prayers are likely going to be answered 

looking pretty bleak for us snow lovers


----------



## Backlasher82 (Jan 13, 2012)

ryano said:


> I think your prayers are likely going to be answered
> 
> looking pretty bleak for us snow lovers



I hope so. I like a typical GA snow, real pretty, fun to play in for a day or so, gone in 2-3 days. Being snowbound for over a week 2 times last year the cupboard was getting pretty bare and I was starting to worry a little bit. I rode my XR100 out to check conditions and the main roads were clear but a couple of side roads getting there weren't. I have a 4WD truck but 4WD doesn't make a bit of difference when you're sliding down a long, steep hill trying to stop.

That's why I rode the XR100 instead of a big bike, you don't have as far to fall on a minibike.  BTW, total count was 2, in exactly the same place. Once on the way out, once coming back.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 13, 2012)

16.7 degrees for a low up here last night.  Got a light dusting on the ground, but nothing to write home about.  Wind gusting to around 40 last night too.
Worst part of the whole thing was power going out at 5:15 and not coming back on till 3am.  Amicalola EMC is not my favorite company right now since our rooms have electric heat and we ended up with some cold guests last night.


----------



## DDD (Jan 13, 2012)

If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?


----------



## marknga (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?



Nah.. I'm still gonna be in the deerstand for the last hunt of the season come Sunday morning.  
The warm temps are good for business, folks start getting spring fever and want to go camping.


----------



## DDD (Jan 13, 2012)

It's gonna rain a lot too over the next 2 weeks.  Good news for Lanier and other ponds that are low.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?



I sure hope that is wrong. I am still hoping for some nice cold weather until the end of Feb.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?



I'd love it. We'll be lucky to see highs in the 50's the next ten days. I see snow in the ten day forcast three times here, supposed to be somewhere between 10 and 15 degrees here tonight with more snow tomorrow night.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?



It's all of them cow poots and globle worming...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 13, 2012)

Sunspot #57 will be fully rotated towards Earth by this weekend, and it is still very active with flares. If we get some good CME's out of this one I suspect we could see the already neutral NAO go negative over the next 7 to 10 days completely shuffling the current 10 day and later maps.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I told all of you that the 10 day EURO and GFS showed low temps in the 50's and highs in the low 70's would it ruin your weekend?





DDD said:


> It's gonna rain a lot too over the next 2 weeks.  Good news for Lanier and other ponds that are low.



FIRED!


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 14, 2012)

It was cold this morning in the duck woods!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 14, 2012)

S'posed to snow a couple inches here tonight. It was 14* this morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 14, 2012)

A massive coronal hole has rotated into earth view on the sun. Expelling good solar winds, active auroras are predicted in a few days for the northern latitudes. 

http://spaceweather.com/



Should be interesting to watch the NAO over the next week.


----------



## Matt.M (Jan 15, 2012)

Any chance this map is accurate for Saturday, the 21st?  Or is it just like all of our other possibilities we had this winter (looks great a week away but nothing on the day of)?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 15, 2012)

Matt.M said:


> Any chance this map is accurate for Saturday, the 21st?  Or is it just like all of our other possibilities we had this winter (looks great a week away but nothing on the day of)?
> 
> View attachment 644100



Looks like a lot of rain for us if it pans out.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 15, 2012)

Can one of you winter weather wizzards please conjure up some snow, for crying out loud ??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 15, 2012)

UBER-DIESEL said:


> Can one of you winter weather wizzards please conjure up some snow, for crying out loud ??



Sure!!! You've just gotta travel a little north of here.

North Pole, Alaska today. It was -39 for the high and the low this morning was -49.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 15, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sure!!! You've just gotta travel a little north of here.
> 
> North Pole, Alaska today. It was -39 for the high and the low this morning was -49.
> 
> View attachment 644192




Dang!! Let's roll


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 15, 2012)

UBER-DIESEL said:


> Dang!! Let's roll



Makes that cold day at work Friday seem not so bad after all...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 17, 2012)

Just heard that this is Alaska's coldest winter on record in the last 40 years. So now we know who's hoggin all da fun...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 17, 2012)

They can have it-supposed to snow again here tonight. 

Snow is ok when it's a once-or-twice-a-year novelty, but when it starts being something that you have to drive to work through two-three times a week for months, and you have to deal with your kids being out of school for the majority of two months then having to go to school until nearly July to make up for it, road salt eating your vehicle, wrecks and deaths and maimings from idjits driving on slick roads, trees and power lines broke down, barns and storage buildings and roofs collapsing, it loses some of its charm really durn quick.  I'm sure glad to see this weather pattern after two ungodly snowy winters. It's a welcome break for us poor souls up here in the Arctic South.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 17, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A massive coronal hole has rotated into earth view on the sun. Expelling good solar winds, active auroras are predicted in a few days for the northern latitudes.
> 
> http://spaceweather.com/
> 
> ...




GFS Ensembles and ECMWF both have it going negative around the first of Feb I do believe.  Need to watch the possible severe stuff next week that is showing up on the GFS as well.


----------



## DDD (Jan 17, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> GFS Ensembles and ECMWF both have it going negative around the first of Feb I do believe.  Need to watch the possible severe stuff next week that is showing up on the GFS as well.



^^^^What he said^^^^^


If February does not turn winter like, its going to be a  year for me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 18, 2012)

DDD said:


> ^^^^What he said^^^^^
> 
> 
> If February does not turn winter like, its going to be a  year for me.



And it means I won't get any sleep all spring long...

Anyone got an old F-150 we can weld some steel panels and ground effects to?? Might as well get out there amongst em'...


----------



## DDD (Jan 18, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> And it means I won't get any sleep all spring long...
> 
> Anyone got an old F-150 we can weld some steel panels and ground effects to?? Might as well get out there amongst em'...



Yep, this is going to transfer into some serious sever wx down stream.

No matter what happens in weather in the coming years, its going to be on extremes.  We have seen that the past 2 winters and last year with the tornados.  Now you have Alaska burried and we are in a heat wave for winter.

Go figure.  I would love an extreme 1993 blizzard though.   Can you imagine if we had a repeat of 1993 what that would be like on this board?


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 18, 2012)

Man, 1993 I was in Chattanooga and we got between 24-27"!! This board would crash I bet or be very slow responding, LOL!!

Come on snow, don't be shy!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 18, 2012)

93 was the one for sure... i drove around in a 72 chevy 4x4 on 38s pulling folks out of the ditch all day. it was a good thing to help them but when the snow melted the truck was so out of alignment it wasnt funny!


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 18, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> They can have it-supposed to snow again here tonight.
> 
> Snow is ok when it's a once-or-twice-a-year novelty, but when it starts being something that you have to drive to work through two-three times a week for months, and you have to deal with your kids being out of school for the majority of two months then having to go to school until nearly July to make up for it, road salt eating your vehicle, wrecks and deaths and maimings from idjits driving on slick roads, trees and power lines broke down, barns and storage buildings and roofs collapsing, it loses some of its charm really durn quick.  I'm sure glad to see this weather pattern after two ungodly snowy winters. It's a welcome break for us poor souls up here in the Arctic South.



You can always move........ just saying....


----------



## NCHillbilly (Jan 18, 2012)

Unicoidawg said:


> You can always move........ just saying....



I was waiting on that.  When I win the lottery I'll stay here 'til the middle of December, then head to Tahiti 'til April.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 18, 2012)

I won't post a map or mention anything about the fantasy land map for 2/2/12, because it's too far out, so no need to mention it.


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 18, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I won't post a map or mention anything about the fantasy land map for 2/2/12, because it's too far out, so no need to mention it.



I think you just did mention it


----------



## elfiii (Jan 18, 2012)

DDD said:


> Can you imagine if we had a repeat of 1993 what that would be like on this board?



Deathly quiet. Nobody would have any electricity to run their computer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 18, 2012)

elfiii said:


> Deathly quiet. Nobody would have any electricity to run their computer.



And in 1994 we had a bad tornado outbreak. Then another one four years later. Must be that danged Mayan Calendar thingy...


----------



## Nicodemus (Jan 18, 2012)

DDD said:


> Yep, this is going to transfer into some serious sever wx down stream.
> 
> No matter what happens in weather in the coming years, its going to be on extremes.  We have seen that the past 2 winters and last year with the tornados.  Now you have Alaska burried and we are in a heat wave for winter.
> 
> Go figure.  I would love an extreme 1993 blizzard though.   Can you imagine if we had a repeat of 1993 what that would be like on this board?





elfiii said:


> Deathly quiet. Nobody would have any electricity to run their computer.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> And in 1994 we had a bad tornado outbreak. Then another one four years later. Must be that danged Mayan Calendar thingy...





And I don`t have to fight the elements to restore power to everybody, anymore. No more climbin` ice covered poles, or hangin` on for dear life while the wind tries to blow you to Savannah, long days and nights with no sleep and little food. 

Nope, don`t miss it one bit...


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 18, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> I was waiting on that.  When I win the lottery I'll stay here 'til the middle of December, then head to Tahiti 'til April.



It was like a baseball on a t-ball stand........... I could not resist.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 18, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> And I don`t have to fight the elements to restore power to everybody, anymore. No more climbin` ice covered poles, or hangin` on for dear life while the wind tries to blow you to Savannah, long days and nights with no sleep and little food.
> 
> Nope, don`t miss it one bit...


----------



## Battlewagon (Jan 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> And it means I won't get any sleep all spring long...
> 
> Anyone got an old F-150 we can weld some steel panels and ground effects to?? Might as well get out there amongst em'...



No Ford, but I do have a welder and like to drive.


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 19, 2012)

Battlewagon said:


> No Ford, but I do have a welder and like to drive.



B.. sorry brother, the welding job is mine.. i clamed it several months ago... no pay, all work is free as long as we put a dixie horn on it... yano just an extra little "bling" as we pimp the ride .


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 19, 2012)

I call dibs on being the official photographer!


----------



## Battlewagon (Jan 19, 2012)

blood on the ground said:


> B.. sorry brother, the welding job is mine.. i clamed it several months ago... no pay, all work is free as long as we put a dixie horn on it... yano just an extra little "bling" as we pimp the ride .



I reckon I could live with you welding. I has me 12yrs exp as an OO longhaul trucker and have been twisting wrenches on them for the last 4yrs. Don't need no stinkin map and can keep it runnin rain or shine. I also have a couple of them digital cameras so I could  perform assistant photographer duties. Ya know, multitasking


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I won't post a map or mention anything about the fantasy land map for 2/2/12, because it's too far out, so no need to mention it.



Please do share, maybe we can hold out hope long enough this will come true!


----------



## 3ringer (Jan 19, 2012)

*Wierd January Weather*

In the last two weeks, I have seen a snake, blooming daffodils, blooming cherry trees, yellow jackets, mosquito and heard tree frogs. All of these things shouldn't be out or happening in January. We need a sure nuff cold snap to put back everything where it should be this time of year.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Jan 19, 2012)

3ringer said:


> In the last two weeks, I have seen a snake, blooming daffodils, blooming cherry trees, yellow jackets, mosquito and heard tree frogs. All of these things shouldn't be out or happening in January. We need a sure nuff cold snap to put back everything where it should be this time of year.



My fig tree is blooming!! What in the world??


----------



## Sultan of Slime (Jan 20, 2012)

3ringer said:


> In the last two weeks, I have seen a snake, blooming daffodils, blooming cherry trees, yellow jackets, mosquito and heard tree frogs. All of these things shouldn't be out or happening in January. We need a sure nuff cold snap to put back everything where it should be this time of year.



Yep, another week or so of this crap and I am going to start fishing pre-spawn patterns...


----------



## SnowHunter (Jan 20, 2012)

It was 80* in Stockdale TX yesterday, they're in shorts and tanktops.. AND THEY STILL HAVE MATERS GROWING OUTSIDE!


----------



## DDD (Jan 20, 2012)

Well I am officially....








Keeping hope alive!  Barack Obama was preaching about change coming yesterday and he's right.  Change is coming and Feb. and March may save winter.  It starts in about a week.  

But not before Severe Wx breaks out around Wednesday of next week.  

But I am liking February more and more for a winter weather event.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 20, 2012)

If'n we dont get some consistent cold weather the bugs will be out of control this year.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 20, 2012)

How much snow IMBY??????


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 20, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well I am officially....
> But I am liking February more and more for a winter weather event.


This is music to my ears!! I sure hope this becomes reality!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 20, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> This is music to my ears!! I sure hope this becomes reality!!



You might regret that when it comes in the form of ice and freezing rain.

On another note. We are two days away from a significant upper latitudes impact by the latest CME put out by M3 class flares yesterday. Should be interesting to see what the time lapse between significant CME events and NAO shifting is.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 20, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You might regret that when it comes in the form of ice and freezing rain.
> 
> On another note. We are two days away from a significant upper latitudes impact by the latest CME put out by M3 class flares yesterday. Should be interesting to see what the time lapse between significant CME events and NAO shifting is.



Very true on the freezing precip. No fan of that at all...


----------



## Resica (Jan 20, 2012)

Calling for 3-6 here tonight and tomorrow. Gonna be in the mid 50's Monday.


----------



## Resica (Jan 21, 2012)

Received about 4". 23 degrees here now!!!


----------



## StriperAddict (Jan 21, 2012)

My parents in Long Island and a friend we spoke to in Ohio also reported 3" of snow.

Me, I just heard bug sounds earlier this evening... like the end of a summer day. No winter going on here  !


----------



## DEERFU (Jan 21, 2012)

Muggy in Smyrna with skeeters buzzin'! Does this mean a March blizzard for us?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 23, 2012)

Posting the link to this information here as well, since it is just as influential on winter weather as it is severe weather.

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=6663535&postcount=363


----------



## DDD (Jan 24, 2012)

Someone has obviously been praying for rain....  

Lanier and her basin is rain Bomb central


----------



## DDD (Jan 24, 2012)

Well... well... well...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 24, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well... well... well...



I hope it holds. The NAO forecast is for a positive swing.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Jan 25, 2012)

Not gonna hold my breath on this at 10 days out.  We'll see what it says at 3.  My guess is 65 degrees and sunny.  I think my optimism got drowned by all this rain.


----------



## bigox911 (Jan 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well... well... well...



I guess 264 is better than 384


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 25, 2012)

my pool is open ifin yall want to come swimmin this weekend!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

Eight days out,,,,,,,,,,,hmmmmm.


----------



## cjones (Jan 27, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Eight days out,,,,,,,,,,,hmmmmm.
> 
> View attachment 646701



Make sure I'm reading that right...

Is the blue '0' line mean '0*C at surface'?

And where do you keep getting these maps?  I've looked at NWS, NOAA, Unisys Wx, etc. and I can't find the maps you have.  Do you have your own wx map monkey doodling this stuff out for you?


----------



## DDD (Jan 27, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Eight days out,,,,,,,,,,,hmmmmm.
> 
> View attachment 646701



you and I both know that cold chasing the moisture never works out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

cjones said:


> Make sure I'm reading that right...
> 
> Is the blue '0' line mean '0*C at surface'?
> 
> And where do you keep getting these maps?  I've looked at NWS, NOAA, Unisys Wx, etc. and I can't find the maps you have.  Do you have your own wx map monkey doodling this stuff out for you?



BigOx draws them up for us on a CAD program and we just run with them.



DDD said:


> you and I both know that cold chasing the moisture never works out.



You started it!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 27, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You started it!!!



There has been NOTHING else to talk about winter weather wise.  

The sever weather gods are hogging all the winter wx time!


----------



## DDD (Jan 27, 2012)

Well, I knew if I bet on the weather it might make me pay up.  GFS 8-9 days out says.... pay up big boy.

But I will believe it when I see it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well, I knew if I bet on the weather it might make me pay up.  GFS 8-9 days out says.... pay up big boy.
> 
> But I will believe it when I see it.



Pay up?? You bet against winter weather...


----------



## DDD (Jan 27, 2012)

The EURO started the party, the GFS has joined the party and now the Canadian says... hey, don't leave me out.

Canadian actually has one heck of a winter shot in here a week from today.

Times they are a chang'n.


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 27, 2012)

But what you think its gonna do? Your our winter weather man.


----------



## david w. (Jan 27, 2012)

Where's my 4'' of snow?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

david w. said:


> Where's my 4'' of snow?



Montana...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 27, 2012)

Just as a side note, prior to the last two seasons snow, as well as violent weather in the spring we had good sun spots and regular flares and CME's. This week we have had two M-class flares and today a powerful X-class flare erupted with CME's due on the 29th. The timing last year was 10 to 14 days afterwards when we had a snow or tornadic event after this kind of activity, so Feb. 4th falls in line with that trend, whether the scientific community wants to admit it or not.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 27, 2012)

I downloaded that app you recommended called 3D Sun and got the alert today about the X2 class flare.  Pretty cool app, thanks for recommending!

Come on winter weather!


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

I threw in the towel last week on winter.  

Ya'll better make sure you got fire wood and a generator if the CAD comes to be true next week.

As well, mid to end of Feb. into March may save the day in the winter wx department.


----------



## telco guy (Jan 28, 2012)

You thinkin' snow or ugly stuff?


----------



## Crickett (Jan 28, 2012)

david w. said:


> Where's my 4'' of snow?



Yeah....where's my birthday snow? For the past several years we've always gotten some kinda winter precipitation about this time.


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

Right now would be an ice storm.  But it still a long ways out.  Classic CAD look though.


----------



## telco guy (Jan 28, 2012)

DDD said:


> Right now would be an ice storm.  But it still a long ways out.  Classic CAD look though.



Well that won't be any fun at all!


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

Right now 8 days out.


----------



## telco guy (Jan 28, 2012)

Thanks for the updates DDD.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 28, 2012)

So is it looking like ice for all of Ga or some parts snow and some ice?


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> So is it looking like ice for all of Ga or some parts snow and some ice?



Right now just ice.  No snow.  Cold air is not deep enough.  Verbatim would start out as a cold rain and then transition into ice.

18Z maps were not as impressive.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 28, 2012)

DDD said:


> Right now just ice.  No snow.  Cold air is not deep enough.  Verbatim would start out as a cold rain and then transition into ice.
> 
> 18Z maps were not as impressive.



Thanks for the info. Maybe we can still hold out hope for some winter weather next weekend...


----------



## jf950y (Jan 28, 2012)

Thanks for the update.


----------



## lbzdually (Jan 28, 2012)

Without a doubt, if it is an ice storm, I will be in Atlanta at 5:00 when it hits.  Last time, I was stuck at the 288 exit for 3 hours before I decided to get off I-75 and try 41.  I was pulling a 16 ft enclosed trailer and made it back to Dalton's bypass, where I nearly spun out on an overpass.  Imagine close to 40 ft of truck and trailer at a 45* angle going across the bridge.   As soon as the back wheels broke loose, I never touched the brakes or throttle.   When the truck hit the road where it was just wet, the truck snapped into place.  Talk about being puckered up.  Got home, steeped out of my truck, feet slid out from under me and fell on my rear.  Masterful piece of driving followed by an inability to walk.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 28, 2012)

DDD said:


> Right now would be an ice storm.  But it still a long ways out.  Classic CAD look though.



I'll have to look at that. Last time I looked the warm wasn't chasing the cold to set up freezing rain.


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll have to look at that. Last time I looked the warm wasn't chasing the cold to set up freezing rain.



It not that type of set up.

HPS is set up perfectly over the NE and is STRONG.  (progged strong)

classic isobar look and surface temps showing around 33.  This far out gives me concern.  Usually the GFS does not handle CAD events very well.  Usually it shows 35 and does not account for evaporational cooling.

The HPS sets up and then the system moving out of Texas brings the rain.

8 days out we will have to see how it twist and changes.


----------



## southerngentleman (Jan 28, 2012)

So....are we going to get that pattern change we've been wanting.  I have to say this has been a boring winter...I've missed reading DDD's post on approaching winter storms.  Hopefully February will give us some surprises!!!!


----------



## DDD (Jan 28, 2012)

southerngentleman said:


> So....are we going to get that pattern change we've been wanting.  I have to say this has been a boring winter...I've missed reading DDD's post on approaching winter storms.  Hopefully February will give us some surprises!!!!



Yes.  Big tall ridge out west and blocking in Greenland.  Cold domes of air up in Canada just waiting to come south and the jet stream is going to adjust as well.  

Nice pieces of energy falling off the ridge, diving south and hopefuly making a LPS pop up out of the Gulf.


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 28, 2012)

DDD said:


> Yes.  Big tall ridge out west and blocking in Greenland.  Cold domes of air up in Canada just waiting to come south and the jet stream is going to adjust as well.
> 
> Nice pieces of energy falling off the ridge, diving south and hopefuly making a LPS pop up out of the Gulf.



Love to hear this


----------



## WoodsmanEd (Jan 29, 2012)

Appreciate the updates.  We will be awaiting the moment we can again say.....hey everybody DDD nailed it!!! I know I speak for everyone we really do enjoy your posts and most of all, Miguel's and yourself taking of your time to keep us informed.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL (Jan 29, 2012)

Well said WoodsmanED I couldn't agree more!


WoodsmanEd said:


> Appreciate the updates.  We will be awaiting the moment we can again say.....hey everybody DDD nailed it!!! I know I speak for everyone we really do enjoy your posts and most of all, Miguel's and yourself taking of your time to keep us informed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 29, 2012)

DDD said:


> It not that type of set up.
> 
> HPS is set up perfectly over the NE and is STRONG.  (progged strong)
> 
> ...



Well, in my brief few years observing the one and only set up that has consistently brought us Ice Storms, freezing rain, etc. is with an extreme cold system locked in over us and warm gulf moisture over riding the cold. Any other set up than that has brought us a cold miserable rain event.


----------



## deermeat270 (Jan 29, 2012)

What's the latest? Feels like spring out here at lake Lanier.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Jan 29, 2012)

Have chainsaw ,will travel!


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 29, 2012)

Should I be cuttin fire wood gettin ready for ice storm?


----------



## safebuilder (Jan 29, 2012)

Hey DDD and Miguel...how about a link somewhere to all the abbreviations y'all use...i find your post interesting but not a clue on some of your stuff...thanks SB


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 29, 2012)

safebuilder said:


> Hey DDD and Miguel...how about a link somewhere to all the abbreviations y'all use...i find your post interesting but not a clue on some of your stuff...thanks SB


There isn't a good site for the simple ones. Any meteorological abbreviation site gives  you oodles of stuff you'll never see us or anyone else use, and they have about 50 pages of useless abbreviations...

Best thing to do when you want to know what an abbreviation or acronym being used stands for is just ask..


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 29, 2012)

Any more recent weather model updates? I heard from Matthew East via FB that things are all over the place.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 29, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> Any more recent weather model updates? I heard from Matthew East via FB that things are all over the place.



Yes, a couple of the hourly runs are just flat out backwards, but over all if any winter weather shows up, according to the last run, it will be in the states to our north with a very very slim chance that extreme N. Ga. might see something.

But then, there is a week to go before the models are done changing 935 more times..


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 29, 2012)

mewabbithunter said:


> Should I be cuttin fire wood gettin ready for ice storm?


My firewood is already cut, split, seasoned, and stacked


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 29, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> My firewood is already cut, split, seasoned, and stacked



If you come home to about a half a truck load missing, it wasn't me.

Just sayin'


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you come home to about a half a truck load missing, it wasn't me.
> 
> Just sayin'




I remember riding by a local place that sells firewood the other day, and thinking how different this year was from last year!!

Last year the pile they have now was replaced twice by this time, and that the pile they have now is the same one they have had all season


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 29, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> I remember riding by a local place that sells firewood the other day, and thinking how different this year was from last year!!
> 
> Last year the pile they have now was replaced twice by this time, and that the pile they have now is the same one they have had all season



No worries. Elfiii's wood pile is much closer to me...


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Jan 29, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No worries. Elfiii's wood pile is much closer to me...


----------



## nickel back (Jan 30, 2012)

sorry,I just cant bite on any cold/nasty weather coming this way,global warming has a hold on the south right now.....


----------



## orrb (Jan 30, 2012)

I remember when we got hit with the ice storm in the 80's it was warm like this and then BAM Nasty Ice storm.  Also in 93 it was really warm then BAM blizard.   I am hoping for colder weather.  I have a stack of wood that I haven't gotten to use yet this year.  I am ready for a fire in the fire place.   

I am also ready for it to get cold enough to kill off some of the bugs.  This summer is gonna suck.  We are gonna get eaten alive.  

Let us know how it is look DDD.  This morning when I got up it was 29 degrees here in Paulding co.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Jan 30, 2012)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> My firewood is already cut, split, seasoned, and stacked



Im one of those guys that wait to the last minute.


----------



## orrb (Jan 30, 2012)

I don't think anything will happen just because, I have been ready for it all winter.  Have gas for generator and a giant stack of seasoned wood. Plenty of food, because I have taken up couponing as a hobby.   

So I am ready, It hasn't came yet.  Just my luck too..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 30, 2012)

mewabbithunter said:


> Im one of those guys that wait to the last minute.



I am purposefully tempting Murphy's law. I have about three logs left in my wood rack. If that don't do it then I don't know what will...


----------



## todd03blown (Jan 30, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I am purposefully tempting Murphy's law. I have about three logs left in my wood rack. If that don't do it then I don't know what will...


I have about 10 pieces left. I am also tempting Murphy's law!


----------



## safebuilder (Jan 30, 2012)

I have about 30 cords and no buyers


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 30, 2012)

safebuilder said:


> I have about 30 cords and no buyers



I'll give you $20 for a cord delivered...


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 31, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I am purposefully tempting Murphy's law. I have about three logs left in my wood rack. If that don't do it then I don't know what will...



that may work...lol. i even wash the truck last weekend and ???nothing???


----------



## DDD (Jan 31, 2012)

orrb said:


> I remember when we got hit with the ice storm in the 80's it was warm like this and then BAM Nasty Ice storm.  Also in 93 it was really warm then BAM blizard.   I am hoping for colder weather.  I have a stack of wood that I haven't gotten to use yet this year.  I am ready for a fire in the fire place.
> 
> I am also ready for it to get cold enough to kill off some of the bugs.  This summer is gonna suck.  We are gonna get eaten alive.
> 
> Let us know how it is look DDD.  This morning when I got up it was 29 degrees here in Paulding co.



Ugh.  Painful models right now.  I had high hopes 48 hours ago and now I am just 

This very well maybe the winter that never was.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 31, 2012)

DDD said:


> Ugh.  Painful models right now.  I had high hopes 48 hours ago and now I am just
> 
> This very well maybe the winter that never was.



see post 589


----------



## orrb (Jan 31, 2012)

I am so bummed.  This winter sucks.  Last winter was amazing.  

Guess, I will go clean out my pool, start getting it ready.  Maybe then it will do something.


----------



## DDD (Jan 31, 2012)

nickel back said:


> see post 589



LOL... 

I really hope you don't believe in global warming.  

The cold will come, its just not going to be long lived nor is it going to have any moisture to play with.  At least not yet.


----------



## Unicoidawg (Jan 31, 2012)

DDD said:


> LOL...
> 
> I really hope you don't believe in global warming.
> 
> The cold will come, its just not going to be long lived nor is it going to have any moisture to play with.  At least not yet.



What are you boys seeing down the tracks DDD??


----------



## GA DAWG (Jan 31, 2012)

1 winter weather thread is all we will have this yr????? How many we have last yr?


----------



## DDD (Jan 31, 2012)

Unicoidawg said:


> What are you boys seeing down the tracks DDD??



Rigde still forms out West making it warm in the West and cool / cold in the East.  The energy flowing over the ridge and down into the SE does some weird things.  Plus the models can't make up their minds.  Then when you look at the ensembles (models have an operational run and then multiple ensembles) you really scratch your head.

I think we are going to turn off cooler with splashes of cold shot for like 24-48 hours but nothing of signifigance.

Painful for me.



GA DAWG said:


> 1 winter weather thread is all we will have this yr????? How many we have last yr?



I think this time last year we were on number 4.   

I can't lie.  Last year was FUN!


----------



## blood on the ground (Jan 31, 2012)

DDD said:


> Rigde still forms out West making it warm in the West and cool / cold in the East.  The energy flowing over the ridge and down into the SE does some weird things.  Plus the models can't make up their minds.  Then when you look at the ensembles (models have an operational run and then multiple ensembles) you really scratch your head.
> 
> I think we are going to turn off cooler with splashes of cold shot for like 24-48 hours but nothing of signifigance.
> 
> ...



Painful for me.

3D... dont pull our leg like that!! i know you remember what multiple ensembles means.........BLIZZARD!!!!!!!  AAAHHHH!!!! AAAAAHHHHH 17 inches of snow in down town ATL!!!!!........just kidding


----------



## orrb (Jan 31, 2012)

I don't think I want a Blizzard,  but enough to keep everyone off the roads a day or so would be nice.   

I really would just like cold weather.  My blue berry bushes have buds and my jonquils are blooming.


----------



## nickel back (Jan 31, 2012)

DDD said:


> LOL...
> 
> I really hope you don't believe in global warming.
> 
> The cold will come, its just not going to be long lived nor is it going to have any moisture to play with.  At least not yet.



.....not me


----------



## DDD (Jan 31, 2012)

nickel back said:


> .....not me



I was going to say.... NASA released a report yesterday that says we have not had any global warming in 15 years.

LOL...  I blame Bush!!!


----------



## policehorse1 (Jan 31, 2012)

orrb I wish snow kept folks off the road. In Pickens County the more snow the crazier folks get and the more they want to hit the roadways. There's more cars in the ditch then on the car lots. lol.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Jan 31, 2012)

I like the current trend. Outside of it being good for business, I like the thought of all of these bugs hatching and exposing themselves to a devastating cold snap prior to laying the next hatch...


----------



## higgy (Feb 1, 2012)

Guess its time to get the yard prep for spring. Saw a dog wood with flowers on it.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 2, 2012)

higgy said:


> Guess its time to get the yard prep for spring. Saw a dog wood with flowers on it.



you seen a dog wood in bloom.. post a pic!


----------



## mewabbithunter (Feb 2, 2012)

Cold rain this weekend!
I am reading there may be an outside shot at a winter storm next week? 
DDD please let us know your thoughts.


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 2, 2012)

Im confuzzled.. the groundhog in PA saw his shadow and the one in Atl didn't....


----------



## pbradley (Feb 2, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Im confuzzled.. the groundhog in PA saw his shadow and the one in Atl didn't....




you gonna listen to a yankee?


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 2, 2012)

pbradley said:


> you gonna listen to a yankee?



good point


----------



## Jeetdawg (Feb 2, 2012)

mewabbithunter said:


> Cold rain this weekend!
> I am reading there may be an outside shot at a winter storm next week?
> DDD please let us know your thoughts.



Though not the man like DDD, I ran the GFS model a bit ago and the 11th and then the 18th were showing some potential.  So far out though, I will quote Miguel and say "that's just fantasy weather forecasts."


----------



## higgy (Feb 4, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 4, 2012)

Jeetdawg said:


> Though not the man like DDD, I ran the GFS model a bit ago and the 11th and then the 18th were showing some potential.  So far out though, I will quote Miguel and say "that's just fantasy weather forecasts."



Or if you wanna use BigOx's coined phrase, it's "Fantasy Casting"


----------



## southerngentleman (Feb 5, 2012)

Still waiting for some cooler weather!!!  How about it DDD, any hope for some winter like weather???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2012)

southerngentleman said:


> Still waiting for some cooler weather!!!  How about it DDD, any hope for some winter like weather???



Strange anomoly showing for the Athens / Elberton region of the state around the 130 hour mark and then a larger event (read dusting) out in fantasy land at the 300 hour mark, but I wouldn't count on either at this point.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 8, 2012)

as far as 2012 is concerned but still a good article.

The Great Blizzard of 1899: Deep South, Deep Freeze
by Jaime McLeod | Monday, February 6th, 2012 


While January is, on average, the coldest month of the year (at least in the Northern Hemisphere), it’s not necessarily the month with the most violent weather. Much of the time, Old Man Winter saves up his fury for the latter half of the season. Many of North America’s worst blizzards have swept in during February, March, or even later in the year.

That’s exactly what happened near the turn of the 20th Century, when the Great Blizzard of 1899 gripped the eastern half of the continent from Saskatchewan all the way down to Cuba. The storm, which started in Canada on February 11th and continued through the 14th, was notable in part because it disproportionately affected southern locales that were used to seeing much milder winter conditions. A photograph from the era even shows government officials in Tallahassee, Florida, having a snowball fight on the stairs of the state capital building. The southern U.S. had never experienced such severe winter weather, and has only seen it once since, in 1985, when a deep freeze destroyed many of Florida’s citrus groves.

Aside from the immense breadth of the storm, it was also memorable because brought record low temperatures to much of the country, many of which still stand to this day. Cape May, New Jersey, dropped to 0° F, the coldest temperature ever recorded in Cape May county, and received an unprecedented 34 inches of snow, a record for the state. Tallahassee dropped to âˆ’2° F, which is the only sub-zero temperature in Florida’s recorded history. Atlanta, Georgia, reached a numbing âˆ’9° F, a low it has not exceeded since. Washington, D.C., hit âˆ’15° F, an all-time low for the city, and received 51 straight hours of snow. Other areas had even lower temperatures: âˆ’33 °F in Sandy Hook, Kentucky; âˆ’35° F in Dayton, West Virginia;âˆ’39° F in Milligan, Ohio; âˆ’47° F in Camp Clark, Nebraska; and a bone-chilling âˆ’61° F Fort Logan, Montana!

Even the normally sweltering city of New Orleans recorded a sub-freezing temperature of 22° F during its Mardi Gras festivities that year. The city was completely iced over, and revelers had to wait for the snow to be shoveled from parade routes.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 8, 2012)

It's been flurrying snow off and on here all morning.


----------



## DDD (Feb 8, 2012)

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Old Hope is on the horizon....


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 8, 2012)

DDD said:


> hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
> 
> Old Hope is on the horizon....


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin' (Feb 8, 2012)

DDD said:


> hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
> 
> Old Hope is on the horizon....



Its not fair for you to throw out a teaser like that with no time frame clarified!    Are you talking a possibilty for something in weeks / days or are you talking about in years?    Make some winter happen for us!


----------



## nickel back (Feb 8, 2012)

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> Its not fair for you to throw out a teaser like that with no time frame clarified!    Are you talking a possibilty for something in weeks / days or are you talking about in years?    Make some winter happen for us!



I would think not this winter

I'm telling y'all global warming has us this winter


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2012)

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> Its not fair for you to throw out a teaser like that with no time frame clarified!    Are you talking a possibilty for something in weeks / days or are you talking about in years?    Make some winter happen for us!



Three days out and then a fantasy cast for 12 days out...


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 8, 2012)

Sweet!! I am keeping this a secret and not eveing telling the wife or kids in hopes this one comes to fruition!  Maybe this will work since running out of wood hasn't worked yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> Sweet!! I am keeping this a secret and not eveing telling the wife or kids in hopes this one comes to fruition!  Maybe this will work since running out of wood hasn't worked yet.



I still haven't collected any, but I've got a pile of white oak on standby about three miles down the road..


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 8, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I still haven't collected any, but I've got a pile of white oak on standby about three miles down the road..



Yanno you just jinxed us


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2012)

SnowHunter said:


> Yanno you just jinxed us


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 8, 2012)

Still snow flurries and sleet here.


----------



## Resica (Feb 8, 2012)

Picked up an inch and a half here today.


----------



## pbradley (Feb 8, 2012)

Resica said:


> Picked up an inch and a half here today.



I drove thru it.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 8, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I still haven't collected any, but I've got a pile of white oak on standby about three miles down the road..



I wish I had a stash like that. I will need to order some locally here in Canton/Hickory Flat area to be delivered.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> I wish I had a stash like that. I will need to order some locally here in Canton/Hickory Flat area to be delivered.



Run down the road a piece and stop by and see Al33 

http://forum.gon.com/member.php?u=189

One of the nicest fella's you'll ever meet, and if you aren't careful, he'll get you hooked on Trad Archery..

If he isn't there he uses the honor system, just load up what you need and slip the money in the door.

You just can't find service and trust like that anymore.


----------



## Resica (Feb 8, 2012)

pbradley said:


> I drove thru it.



Where are you?


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 9, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Still snow flurries and sleet here.



alright you dang hillbilly.....we made an executive decision , you are not allowed to talk about your winter precip anymore until GA gets at least a dusting from I 20 north....

will you scoop some of that snow up and put it in a bag and ship it to me?? i needs a fix


----------



## bigox911 (Feb 9, 2012)

Well well...Euro is saying fun and games may be possible yet


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 9, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> Well well...Euro is saying fun and games may be possible yet



Come on winter weather!!


----------



## GA DAWG (Feb 9, 2012)

It aint gonna do nothing!


----------



## nickel back (Feb 9, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> It aint gonna do nothing!



what he said,global warming I tell ya


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Wade.....


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Finally the models are starting to agree and starting to give us stuff to follow.  

I am still not sold, but the EURO has had this look for this weekend and beyond and now the latest run of the GFS seems to be coming around to its way of thinking.

The EURO has been colder and colder and colder.  Snow potential may not be realized until 48 hours out with the way the models are going right now.  

I like that.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 9, 2012)

At least let us get some cold weather down here where I am.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 9, 2012)

5 days out is starting to make it a little more believable.  I won't complain if we only get 2 days of notice on a snowstorm.


----------



## Keebs (Feb 9, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> At least let us get some cold weather down here where I am.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 9, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> 5 days out is starting to make it a little more believable.  I won't complain if we only get 2 days of notice on a snowstorm.



I agree!! Heck the way this winter has gone, I will take a 1hr notice that 4-6" will fall


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

The mexican will like this image better since it comes from twister data.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 9, 2012)

Ok, so right now GFS is our friend.  What are the Euro and Canadian looking like?


----------



## StriperAddict (Feb 9, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> At least let us get some cold weather down here where I am.


 
Up here, too!


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> Ok, so right now GFS is our friend.  What are the Euro and Canadian looking like?



EURO has had this for 2 days.

Canadian just gave us some frozen precip, but its a close call just looking at their maps.


EURO is running now...


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Well boys and girls... we have a snow storm with in the 5 day window on the EURO and the GFS.

I don't believe it.  LOL


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Right now it would be a line, as I am looking at it, from Marietta, over to Athens.  It has trended colder and colder with each run.  It would hit Tuesday morning of Valentines day.

Someone will need to warn the hospitals 10 months down the road...  LOL


----------



## deerslayer357 (Feb 9, 2012)

I hope it will hold on and we get to see some snow!

Last year spoiled me!


----------



## jarrettdavis (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> Right now it would be a line, as I am looking at it, from Marietta, over to Athens.  It has trended colder and colder with each run.  It would hit Tuesday morning of Valentines day.
> 
> Someone will need to warn the hospitals 10 months down the road...  LOL



Are we looking at all snow or a mixture of ice and snow??? Either way I'll be happy!!!


----------



## GA DAWG (Feb 9, 2012)

My phone weather is calling for low 20s in here over the weekend. That's pretty cool. What yall think?


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> Right now it would be a line, as I am looking at it, from Marietta, over to Athens.  It has trended colder and colder with each run.  It would hit Tuesday morning of Valentines day.
> 
> Someone will need to warn the hospitals 10 months down the road...  LOL



so from cedartown-marietta-athens, from those points North?

This would be the best valentines gift ever!! We get snow then I don't have to buy the wife anything as should be happy as I would be.  Would be fun to play in the snow while the primerib cooks in the oven...


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

jarrettdavis said:


> Are we looking at all snow or a mixture of ice and snow??? Either way I'll be happy!!!



Its looking like the mountains are a lock, it will just be a matter of how much they get.

Below say... 2000 feet... we will need evaporational cooling to help us out.  The heavier the moisture, the faster the lower levels will cool.

This is where it gets hinky.  These are the types of storms that you can wake up to 35° and raining or just damp or you wake up and there is 3" of powder on the ground.  Why?


If the southern stream of moisture pulls up warm air with it, it will stay at the surface, but at 2500 feet its snowing.  Or, the evaporational cooling is such that it cools the layers of the atmosphere all the way to the surface, the warm air rides over the top with the moisture and wallah, welcome to Valentines snow 2012.

Still a long way out in weather terms... but it ought to get interesting around here for a bit.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD, what kind of temperatures we lookin` at down here in Lee County, say to Lake Seminole?


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 9, 2012)

Still a lot of time to change, but it's nice to have something to watch!  Thanks for the heads up on this!  You're the man DDD.


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Here is a good map from the EURO.  Rember these are 3 hour snowfall maps.

Looking at the total accumulation across the 3 hours, we would be looking at 2-4 "  in the line that I mentioned above.


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

Nicodemus said:


> DDD, what kind of temperatures we lookin` at down here in Lee County, say to Lake Seminole?



Nic,

Yall are going to be too warm for snow.  Probably looking at 36-38 for lows.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> Nic,
> 
> Yall are going to be too warm for snow.  Probably looking at 36-38 for lows.





As long as we just get some cold temps, I`ll be happy. Thanks!!


----------



## Da Possum (Feb 9, 2012)

It will be too warm in N. Georgia too


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> It will be too warm in N. Georgia too



Based on what?  Your gut feeling?


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 9, 2012)

nice map!!!

hdm03, there is no need for you to post on here.  I think it says a lot that your post is number 666


----------



## Da Possum (Feb 9, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> nice map!!!
> 
> hdm03, there is no need for you to post on here.  I think it says a lot that your post is number 666



Nope; I was post 667.   Crap; I guess it is


----------



## nickel back (Feb 9, 2012)

global warming is going to KO this snow event.......


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

nickel back said:


> global warming is going to KO this snow event.......



quite frankly I blame Obama!


----------



## topfuelgirl (Feb 9, 2012)

Hey DDD,
How much do you think for Rockmart (Paulding County side)?


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 9, 2012)

topfuelgirl said:


> Hey DDD,
> How much do you think for Rockmart (Paulding County side)?



paulding some one say pauling??? we are dooomed, going to snow hiny deep to 10ft Indian..


----------



## nickel back (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> quite frankly I blame Obama!



that sounds good too!! BUT!!

really does not effect me I'm JUST south of that there snow line


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2012)

topfuelgirl said:


> Hey DDD,
> How much do you think for Rockmart (Paulding County side)?



If I had to swear on what the models were showing right now, maybe an inch.  

As warm as it has been... maybe nothing because ground temps maybe too warm.


----------



## nickel back (Feb 9, 2012)

DDD said:


> If I had to swear on what the models were showing right now, maybe an inch.
> 
> As warm as it has been... maybe nothing because ground temps maybe too warm.



darn global warming!!!


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 9, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2012)

18z runs take all of the chances away, even the friday night into saturday morning event for NW Ga.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2012)

Back in for Tuesday, as usual by the 00 and 06z, they are always different from the later in the day runs. (I think they are the Liberals of the bunch) 

What concerns me, if this scenario sets up, is cold air in place, with warm gulf moisture over riding it. The perfect set up for what I have been worrying will happen all winter.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 10, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Back in for Tuesday, as usual by the 00 and 06z, they are always different from the later in the day runs. (I think they are the Liberals of the bunch)
> 
> What concerns me, if this scenario sets up, is cold air in place, with warm gulf moisture over riding it. The perfect set up for what I have been worrying will happen all winter.
> 
> View attachment 649932





Ice?


----------



## DDD (Feb 10, 2012)

Talking about the Valentines day storm.

Overnight the EURO held serve with snow for NGA and the Canadian model did as well.

I don't think we have a chance for ice given the temps at the surface.  Also, warm air advection is going to warm things up.  It will start out as snow and be mostly snow and then turn over to rain.

Oh Canada....


----------



## DDD (Feb 10, 2012)

And then the EURO showing its love...

One thing for sure, there is less moisture to deal with in the over night models.  Its becoming moisture starved.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 10, 2012)

Sounds like it's gonna be a great weekend here. I'd be happy to trade with some of y'all. 



> Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 9pm. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
> 
> Saturday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 9 by 2pm. Wind chill values as low as -15. Windy, with a northwest wind between 24 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
> 
> ...


----------



## jbird1 (Feb 10, 2012)

I'm assuming the models are going back and forth and not in agreement


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 10, 2012)

Any updates DDD or Miguel?!?


----------



## bpryor (Feb 10, 2012)

i kinda feel like we will get snow come early march...down here in central GA too.


----------



## bigox911 (Feb 10, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Back in for Tuesday, as usual by the 00 and 06z, they are always different from the later in the day runs. (I think they are the Liberals of the bunch)
> 
> What concerns me, if this scenario sets up, is cold air in place, with warm gulf moisture over riding it. The perfect set up for what I have been worrying will happen all winter.
> 
> View attachment 649932



You mean this red stuff that was blue stuff yesterday??


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 10, 2012)

Ut oh....lots more ice on that latest 12z run....


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 10, 2012)

Anything about tonight for us up here on the Mountain?  A dusting maybe???


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 10, 2012)

The local weather folks on TV are even speaking about snow/ice for early next week...


----------



## GA DAWG (Feb 10, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> The local weather folks on TV are even speaking about snow/ice for early next week...


That prolly jinxed us then! DDD what you seeing now?


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 10, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> That prolly jinxed us then! EDD what you seeing now?



LOL!! What I remember from last year is the local TV folks jumped on board a few days out and things still happened.  They are always 2-4 days behind the masterminds on this forum when spilling the beans about these winter storms.

Hopefully this is the case and we do get something come valentines.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2012)

bigox911 said:


> You mean this red stuff that was blue stuff yesterday??



That's how it happens.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2012)

Wade Chandler said:


> Anything about tonight for us up here on the Mountain?  A dusting maybe???



Yeah, maybe, if you even see a flurry. Looks like Tennessee and NC are hogging what little will be with tonights stuff. You can thank NCHillbilly for bogarting the winter weather..


----------



## shakey gizzard (Feb 10, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> LOL!! What I remember from last year is the local TV folks jumped on board a few days out and things still happened.  They are always 2-4 days behind the masterminds on this forum when spilling the beans about these winter storms.
> 
> Hopefully this is the case and we do get something come valentines.



You gotta call it 7 to 10 days out or it dont count!


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 10, 2012)

Im in the shop now building a felt snow man.... its better than nothin


----------



## cjones (Feb 10, 2012)

I figured something was brewing.  I've seen larger groups of deer out feeding in fields the past few days than I have seen all winter long.


----------



## Da Possum (Feb 10, 2012)

Nothing is going to happen; it's about time for me to get out my Speedo


----------



## DDD (Feb 10, 2012)

If and I do mean if, we see anything frozen it is going to be breif and light.  What moisture does fall will be light and due to ground temps will not stick.

Bigger story right now is tomorrow.  Cold temps along with blistering winds are gonna blow tomorrow.  My dad and I were supposed to fish a tournament tomorrow on Jackson and we said forget it.  Temp is going to be dropping all day along with crazy gusty winds.

Long way to go before Tuesday, but I don't like the trend for us to get any snow.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 10, 2012)

Booooooo.  I do not approve of your answer.  Let's try for something better tomorrow.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, maybe, if you even see a flurry. Looks like Tennessee and NC are hogging what little will be with tonights stuff. You can thank NCHillbilly for bogarting the winter weather..



Yep, we're under a winter storm warning right now. S'posed to be 2-4" here by tonight, with a high of 28, single digit lows tonight and 40-50 mph wind gusts on the ridges. Sounds like winter to me.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 11, 2012)

Dang it NCHillbilly!  I've got 40 people at the Inn tonight and they were all hoping for a little snow and you've gotta go and be selfish.  Y'all be safe in it up there.


----------



## mountainpass (Feb 11, 2012)

Heavy sleet here on the mountain right now.


----------



## mountainpass (Feb 11, 2012)

....and it stopped.....


----------



## mountainpass (Feb 11, 2012)

...light sleet mixing with flurries.....33 degrees


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 11, 2012)

maybe if we just start another WW thread it will bring luck our way...


----------



## Wade Chandler (Feb 11, 2012)

got a light dusting now   28 degrees and nice and breezy


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 11, 2012)

We already got a couple inches here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

The models are still supporting a good event on Tuesday, I just hope it isn't all ice for us below the mountains. This map is showing winter precip from north of Macon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

Temps will be plenty cold early on and the models have the day warming up. Problem with that is, if (IF) frozen precip falls early enough overnight or early in the morning transfer cooling may just make it tough for the temps to retreat.

We'll find out on Tuesday, that's for sure.


----------



## DEERFU (Feb 11, 2012)

Bring it on!!!!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Feb 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This map is showing winter precip from north of Macon.



Of course!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

whitetaco02 said:


> Of course!



It's still there on the 18z 66 hour run.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Feb 11, 2012)

So Miguel, are you still thinking a sleet/ice possibility or is this a snow possibility?

That is of course if we aren't blown away tonight. I'm really surprised I haven't heard of more power being out in this area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> So Miguel, are you still thinking a sleet/ice possibility or is this a snow possibility?
> 
> That is of course if we aren't blown away tonight. I'm really surprised I haven't heard of more power being out in this area.



I'm thinking I want another day of model runs, but technically, warm moist air over-running cold air yields ice / freezing rain. This is what this system is composed of. There is still too many inconsistencies in the timing of events (cold air in place with moisture over-riding) The cold could very well back out before the moisture arrives, but if it doesn't it should get interesting.


----------



## GA DAWG (Feb 11, 2012)

We talking early tues morn or Tues night?


----------



## ryork (Feb 11, 2012)

> I'm really surprised I haven't heard of more power being out in this area.



We were out here for around an hour today.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> We talking early tues morn or Tues night?



Looks like early Tuesday morning right now, but nothing is set in stone. More models runs man, give me more model runs....


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Feb 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like early Tuesday morning right now, but nothing is set in stone. More models runs man, give me more model runs....



We talkin bout up here in our neck of the woods?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> We talkin bout up here in our neck of the woods?



Figures, women never could read a map...


----------



## david w. (Feb 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Figures, women never could read a map...


----------



## mrs. hornet22 (Feb 11, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Figures, women never could read a map...



You Are In Trouble NOW.......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 11, 2012)

mrs. hornet22 said:


> You Are In Trouble NOW.......


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Feb 11, 2012)

I never met one who thought they needed one


----------



## higgy (Feb 12, 2012)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2012)

higgy said:


>



Not a big proponent of the 00z and 06z runs, they tend to be a bit more liberal. But instead of watching you ruin your diet by eating popcorn for breakfast, here it is.

I don't believe a bit of this map at this juncture in time btw.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 12, 2012)

Blizzard, blizzard, blizzard! We need a blizzard ...and not the DQ kind


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2012)

Now, in contrast look at the 12z run. Much more moderate and believable. I tend to side with the NAM over the GFS given the data that is out there right now.


----------



## david w. (Feb 12, 2012)

Figures.I always get left out.


----------



## bigox911 (Feb 12, 2012)

12z Hires NAM says that whatever moisture we get is going to be all rain as well


----------



## DDD (Feb 12, 2012)

david w. said:


> Figures.I always get left out.



Don't worry... everyone is going to get left out at this pace.

Tennessee might get some measurable snow.  Like over in the Western side of the state.  Right now we might see some flakes fly at the onset of the event, but it will quickly turn over to sleet and then rain.  Very, very fast.

Mostly going to be a cold rain.  

Tuesday is just going to be a nasty day.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Feb 12, 2012)

Bring on Spring!!!!  This winter has been just pitiful!


----------



## DDD (Feb 12, 2012)

On the GFS, when the majority of the moisture gets here, the freezing line is in Kentucky.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 12, 2012)

I see the NWS out of PTC has posted their prediction map on FB. MTNs they're saying 2" plus a little ice. Rome to Canton to Gainsville about 1" and south of that snow changing to rain by Tuesday afternoon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2012)

Looks like the issue will be with the precip moving in around 2am Tuesday morning and not changing over to rain until around 7am. This would explain the disagreement in the models, and the amount of precip will dictate just how well it will warm up in order for it to change over to rain.

With the high temps on Tuesday forecast to be around 45, there should be no issues, except for perhaps early in the morning.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Feb 12, 2012)

Isnt there a old saying/wise tail about what the weather was in Dallas would end up moving threw Atlanta? Half of Texas is under Winter advisory's right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2012)

Fro1911nut said:


> Isnt there a old saying/wise tail about what the weather was in Dallas would end up moving threw Atlanta? Half of Texas is under Winter advisory's right now.



Back in the 70's and before that was pretty much the norm, but things changed...


----------



## shakey gizzard (Feb 12, 2012)

I dont care , I'm gas'n up the snowmobile!


----------



## nickel back (Feb 13, 2012)

I keep telling y'all global warming has this years winter.....


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 13, 2012)

I didnt think i would ever say im ready for spring! but im ready for spring! sorry for swearing on the WW thread.


----------



## huntinglady74 (Feb 13, 2012)

Dang it.. I'm past ready for either some freaking Winter or Summer make up ya mind already... One day it's short weather next day you freeze ya socks off....


----------



## DDD (Feb 13, 2012)

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....

Radar is showing showers  way ahead of schedule... hmmmmmmmmm......

Wet Bulb and dewpoints are really low.  Interesting... very interesting...


----------



## Keebs (Feb 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
> 
> Radar is showing showers  way ahead of schedule... hmmmmmmmmm......
> 
> Wet Bulb and dewpoints are really low.  Interesting... very interesting...


 Translate, please!


----------



## jbird1 (Feb 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
> 
> Radar is showing showers  way ahead of schedule... hmmmmmmmmm......
> 
> Wet Bulb and dewpoints are really low.  Interesting... very interesting...


----------



## DDD (Feb 13, 2012)

Keebs said:


> Translate, please!



If some moisture comes in earlier... say... 10PM.. more than anticipated... its going to cool the air even more, saturate the air as well.

Thus, when the expected moisture gets here say 2-6 AM... it will be more of the frozen variety.

It will bare watching.

As I told Wade C. via text a week ago... the way this pattern is set up, whats actually going to happen may not be realized until 12-48 hours out.

I would love some good surprise snow.  No surprise ice.  Suprise ice bad.  Very bad.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 13, 2012)

yep last years black ice hit right as i was driving home from work.. pucker factor 10 fer that day


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 13, 2012)

They're already calling for another inch or two here tonight and tomorrow morning. Still got a good bit on the ground from Saturday.


----------



## Keebs (Feb 13, 2012)

DDD said:


> If some moisture comes in earlier... say... 10PM.. more than anticipated... its going to cool the air even more, saturate the air as well.
> 
> Thus, when the expected moisture gets here say 2-6 AM... it will be more of the frozen variety.
> 
> ...


Thank you kind sir and I agree, no ice, just snow!


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 13, 2012)

I follow Matthew East at the recommendation of DDD via FB and he said the 12z Euro has some nice potential for snowfall this upcoming weekend.  Not sure if he is just referring to the Carolina's or maybe that GA is part of that potential. I know it is early but thought I would share what he just reported a bit ago.

Any more updates for late tonight/tomorrow morning DDD?


----------



## orrb (Feb 13, 2012)

Hoping it doesn't snow this weekend.  I am going to the beach and wont be here for it.  

I am hoping for tonight.. But guessing it wont get as far down as I-20..  What are your thoughts? 

 Intellicast is showing 30% chance of snow in Temple, Ga for the 16th? Anything about that DDD?


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 13, 2012)

I see Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for the counties north of Cherokee County and east of there until 10am tomorrow morning....Hmmmm


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> I follow Matthew East at the recommendation of DDD via FB and he said the 12z Euro has some nice potential for snowfall this upcoming weekend.  Not sure if he is just referring to the Carolina's or maybe that GA is part of that potential. I know it is early but thought I would share what he just reported a bit ago.
> 
> Any more updates for late tonight/tomorrow morning DDD?



He is referring to the Carolina's. My go to man for the Carolina's, that also nails SE weather as good as James Spann is Brad Panovich. 

As far as tonight:

From looking at the models this close in, I feel like the NAM is underestimating the precip and the GFS is going overboard with it. WHY? Well allow me to interject my highly unprofessional opinion;

I have been looking for cloud cover all day long, and it just never got here in time for the sun to start dropping. The clouds would have trapped our 54 degree temps creating a good insulating layer preventing the air temps from dropping far enough, fast enough keep an all rain event. As it is, with no cloud cover in place I feel the temps will drop like a rock after sunset and any precip that falls when it moves in later on will be of the frozen type (snow, sleet, freezing rain)

The only chance we have to escape a miserable morning commute is if the moisture is late arriving and morning warming is allowed to occur shortly after the precip begins.

Now it's just a wait and see game.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Feb 13, 2012)

Plenty of snow over here flyhing into Utah.  Flying to Vancouver, Canada tomorrow to get into a lot more.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 13, 2012)

Nitram4891 said:


> Plenty of snow over here flyhing into Utah.  Flying to Vancouver, Canada tomorrow to get into a lot more.



Killer shot! Next time I want to go!


----------



## biggtruxx (Feb 13, 2012)

Looks like its not gonna do nothin...... too bad would have loved to have seen some white stuff this year.... ohhh well maybe next season .


----------



## Matt.M (Feb 13, 2012)

Trying to help things by drinking a New Belgium "Snow Day" ale.

If that doesn't work, at least I have had few good ones.  I'm all about being a team player.


----------



## ryork (Feb 13, 2012)

It is sleeting lightly here, and it is 46 degrees according to the back porch thermometer.  

Going to take some monumental evaporational cooling to get anything remotely significant it would seem, though I'm no expert.


----------



## orrb (Feb 13, 2012)

It was sleeting here in Paulding county Union area just a few min ago.


has changed to sleet, snow and rain mix.  10:51pm


----------



## ryork (Feb 13, 2012)

Sleet has picked up a little bit, still 44 degrees or so.  Probably be all rain in a little bit, hope I'm wrong though!


----------



## Priest (Feb 14, 2012)

Sleet in 30066 for about 25 minutes now.


----------



## Priest (Feb 14, 2012)

heavy sleet started back up here again about 0215 and has continued for the last 10 minutes.  temp dropped from 46 to 39 in the last hour.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2012)

Priest said:


> heavy sleet started back up here again about 0215 and has continued for the last 10 minutes.  temp dropped from 46 to 39 in the last hour.



Frozen precip has that effect on the temps. If it picks up it could get messy, that is if the temp drops about four or five more degrees.. Definitely will be interesting to monitor.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 14, 2012)

I can hear the sleet mixed in with the rain in canton for well over 45 min. Quite heavy actually..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> I can hear the sleet mixed in with the rain in canton for well over 45 min. Quite heavy actually..



precip is thinning to our NW and the cold air isn't advancing SW'ward so this will be predominately a NE Ga event. I imagine a ride up to Hog Pen Gap will yield some photo ops of the white stuff, but temps aren't retreating fast enough for anything to happen here in the metro area. I still imagine traffic will be a mess in the morning though, primarily due to the idiot factor in Atl.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 14, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> precip is thinning to our NW and the cold air isn't advancing SW'ward so this will be predominately a NE Ga event. I imagine a ride up to Hog Pen Gap will yield some photo ops of the white stuff, but temps aren't retreating fast enough for anything to happen here in the metro area. I still imagine traffic will be a mess in the morning though, primarily due to the idiot factor in Atl.



 yep you just got ta love the connector on a rainy morning! swappin paint and bump drafting..


----------



## SnowHunter (Feb 14, 2012)

Its downright balmy here this morning


----------



## Cowdog07 (Feb 14, 2012)

After all we didn't get any snow here in my area, DDD may a good call in  an earlier post and was right. The freezing line was Tennessee and Kentucky. Thanks again for the great forecasting.


----------



## DDD (Feb 14, 2012)

The killer yesterday was the temp got to 54° and then the cloud cover ran in and trapped the warm air at the surface.  Sure, evap cooling too place but the columns were just too warm.  Now I turn my attention to the weekend.  Another shot at some white stuff for the mountains.  Probably just cold rain here.  But at least I have something to follow.  That winter sucketh.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2012)

DDD said:


> The killer yesterday was the temp got to 54° and then the cloud cover ran in and trapped the warm air at the surface.  Sure, evap cooling too place but the columns were just too warm.  Now I turn my attention to the weekend.  Another shot at some white stuff for the mountains.  Probably just cold rain here.  But at least I have something to follow.  That winter sucketh.



On an even more positive note (not sure whether it will be severe or winter weather) The NW branch of the sun is active and will be facing earth in a couple of days. It was almost three weeks to the day from our series of flares to this cold outbreak, so early March promises to be lively, if the sun stays active.


----------



## StriperAddict (Feb 14, 2012)

DDD said:


> That winter sucketh.


 
It sho dideth!  

Now we waiteth on spring to spring w powerful storms and threats of twista's....  Photo ops, maybe. But let's hope them sun spots don't shake out bad fast air like last year.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 14, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> On an even more positive note (not sure whether it will be severe or winter weather) The NW branch of the sun is active and will be facing earth in a couple of days. It was almost three weeks to the day from our series of flares to this cold outbreak, so early March promises to be lively, if the sun stays active.



How cool would it be to get a repeat of 1993 all over again?  Even if we only get 6" of snow, that would be enough to enjoy for a few days and help end what has been a boring winter thus far.


----------



## Da Possum (Feb 14, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> How cool would it be to get a repeat of 1993 all over again?  Even if we only get 6" of snow, that would be enough to enjoy for a few days and help end what has been a boring winter thus far.



Not cool at all! 

Come on spring!!!


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 14, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> Not cool at all!
> 
> Come on spring!!!



LOL!! Come on SNOW


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 16, 2012)

Any updates on this snow storm that is going to impact Va and some other states?

I see one of the local weather guys Mike Francis states we could see some snow for parts of N. Ga over the weekend.


----------



## DDD (Feb 16, 2012)

todd03blown said:


> Any updates on this snow storm that is going to impact Va and some other states?
> 
> I see one of the local weather guys Mike Francis states we could see some snow for parts of N. Ga over the weekend.



Not really.

Tons of rain coming... could be upwards of 2.0" over 48 hours in Central GA.  Up stream that is going to transfer into 6-8" up around Richmond, VA and maybe upstate N.C.

The Tommy Wedge will be in place and it will be cool and wet for the better part of Saturday... just plain nasty.

We don't have any cold air to deal with.

Now... Feb. 28 is looking quite interesting, but it is a ways off.


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 16, 2012)

DDD said:


> Not really.
> 
> Tons of rain coming... could be upwards of 2.0" over 48 hours in Central GA.  Up stream that is going to transfer into 6-8" up around Richmond, VA and maybe upstate N.C.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the update!


----------



## jf950y (Feb 18, 2012)

Come on feb 28........


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 19, 2012)

We're under a winter storm warning here again for this afternoon/tonight. Several inches possible, they say. Woohoo.


----------



## zworley3 (Feb 20, 2012)

Any update on the weather for the 28th?


----------



## GA DAWG (Feb 20, 2012)

What about next year?  This winter is over with.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Feb 20, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> What about next year?  This winter is over with.



I would'nt bet the farm!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Feb 21, 2012)

I saw some of the white stuff last week...


----------



## bigox911 (Feb 21, 2012)

Nitram4891 said:


> I saw some of the white stuff last week...



Nice   Moguls in the trees can kiss my tail though...

Glad I got to see some snow this winter


----------



## todd03blown (Feb 21, 2012)

Hopefully the 28th or sometime in March will pan out for us.....Gotta keep the faith that we will see some measurable white stuff Atlanta northward.


----------



## Paint Brush (Feb 21, 2012)

*March Weather*

Whats the word on the 28th? We can by no means count out March yet,the blizzard was on the 13th of March 93,that one slammed the whole east coast. Have any of you fellows ever been told about the sleet that hit NG in March of 1960. My Grand Pa said the sleet was about 10in deep and that afternoon it began to rain.During the nite it cleared off and the bottom fell out of the temperature and froze it solid. Almost every chicken house in NG fell in.The National Guard put chains on thier Deuce an Half trucks and hauled feed for a month. Pa Pa said that the hollers on the north side still had sleet in them in June. So it has happened before,Who says it wont again!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Feb 21, 2012)

Paint Brush said:


> Whats the word on the 28th? We can by no means count out March yet,the blizzard was on the 13th of March 93,that one slammed the whole east coast. Have any of you fellows ever been told about the sleet that hit NG in March of 1960. My Grand Pa said the sleet was about 10in deep and that afternoon it began to rain.During the nite it cleared off and the bottom fell out of the temperature and froze it solid. Almost every chicken house in NG fell in.The National Guard put chains on thier Deuce an Half trucks and hauled feed for a month. Pa Pa said that the hollers on the north side still had sleet in them in June. So it has happened before,Who says it wont again!!!!!!!!!!!



Nothing says it can't happen again, but looking back at the analogs from 1993, it was THE perfect set up for a bomb.  The chances aloft and below of that happening again... its going to be a needle in a haystack chance for it to happen again in my lifetime.


I am not impressed with the 28th.  It may be time to shut her down for the Spring.


----------



## nickel back (Feb 22, 2012)

told y'all global warming has taken over this winter her in the lower part of the 48,bunch of hard heads.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 22, 2012)

nickel back said:


> told y'all global warming has taken over this winter her in the lower part of the 48,bunch of hard heads.



Actually, and historically, colder winters in the "lower 48" especially in the SE, are more the abnormal newsworthy events. The winter we are having now is the norm.


----------



## DDD (Mar 6, 2012)

Well... one good thing came out of this winter... or should I say will come out of this winter in September...

Who wants to guess?  One hint... no, my wife and I are not having a baby.... but someone is.....


----------



## Da Possum (Mar 6, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well... one good thing came out of this winter... or should I say will come out of this winter in September...
> 
> Who wants to guess?  One hint... no, my wife and I are not having a baby.... but someone is.....



The Mexican?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 6, 2012)

It snowed here yesterday.


----------



## DDD (Mar 6, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> The Mexican?



I am not telling...


----------



## Da Possum (Mar 6, 2012)

DDD said:


> I am not telling...



Now I remember; Keebs is pregnant!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 6, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> The Mexican?



I only look pregnant.....


----------



## DDD (Mar 6, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I only look pregnant.....



Hey!  I resemble that remark!


----------



## Keebs (Mar 6, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> Now I remember; Keebs is pregnant!!!





Miguel Cervantes said:


> I only look pregnant.....


 It looks good on you though!


----------



## bigox911 (Mar 6, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well... one good thing came out of this winter... or should I say will come out of this winter in September...
> 
> Who wants to guess?  One hint... no, my wife and I are not having a baby.... but someone is.....


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 6, 2012)

DDD said:


> Well... one good thing came out of this winter... or should I say will come out of this winter in September...
> 
> Who wants to guess?  One hint... no, my wife and I are not having a baby.... but someone is.....





bigox911 said:


>


Congratulations Big "O"!!!


----------



## DDD (Mar 7, 2012)

bigox911 said:


>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 18, 2012)

After a couple of weeks of getting pounded by CME's, is the pattern bound to change, as has proven historically after such solar events?

While I don't think we'll get a late spring snow, nothing is out of the question after the last volley of CME's we just had.

Just ask Arizona, and if this was in their forecast two weeks ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/18/us/winter-storm/index.html


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 19, 2012)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> After a couple of weeks of getting pounded by CME's, is the pattern bound to change, as has proven historically after such solar events?
> 
> While I don't think we'll get a late spring snow, nothing is out of the question after the last volley of CME's we just had.
> 
> ...




What are CME's?

Jet stream looks awful weak up there. Think we are in trouble down south or do you think it will push down eventually?

Just a star geezer wondering.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Mar 19, 2012)

Lukikus2 said:


> What are CME's?
> 
> Jet stream looks awful weak up there. Think we are in trouble down south or do you think it will push down eventually?
> 
> Just a star geezer wondering.


I'm going out on a limb here!!.......CME Coronal Mass Ejections!!........Short term.......Solar Flares!!

They mess with the magnetic fields of the earth, thus affecting weather patterns, from what I understand!!

I'm sure Miguel can explain it better!!


----------



## DDD (Mar 25, 2012)

So.......

The GFS is advertising a sig. cool down over the next 2 weeks.  Below normal temps and I could see us getting a frost or two if it is pointing towards a trend.

Hope yall got plenty of stuff to cover the veggies up with.


----------



## SnowHunter (Mar 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> So.......
> 
> The GFS is advertising a sig. cool down over the next 2 weeks.  Below normal temps and I could see us getting a frost or two if it is pointing towards a trend.
> 
> Hope yall got plenty of stuff to cover the veggies up with.





I do, thankfully... Looks like I need to get the greenhouse finished and get everything else started inside if its gonna be that cold over the next few weeks.. least I can transplant em when it warms back up...

Ugh I hate weather yoyos! 

Thanks for the heads up DDD


----------



## GA DAWG (Mar 25, 2012)

DDD said:


> So.......
> 
> The GFS is advertising a sig. cool down over the next 2 weeks.  Below normal temps and I could see us getting a frost or two if it is pointing towards a trend.
> 
> Hope yall got plenty of stuff to cover the veggies up with.


Blackberry winter!


----------



## DDD (Mar 27, 2012)

Brad Nitz just posted this...

Models showing cold air to move in late next week. Could be in for morning lows in the 30s by Easter


DOES HE READ THIS PAGE!?!?!?!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 27, 2012)

DDD said:


> So.......
> 
> The GFS is advertising a sig. cool down over the next 2 weeks.  Below normal temps and I could see us getting a frost or two if it is pointing towards a trend.
> 
> Hope yall got plenty of stuff to cover the veggies up with.



Glad to see the NAO is behaving as predicted following the last rash of CME's..


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 10, 2012)

it is ferseriously nice out this mernin...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 10, 2012)

Hard freeze warning out here for tonight and tomorrow night-s'posed to be down in the mid-upper 20s.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 10, 2012)

NCHillbilly said:


> Hard freeze warning out here for tonight and tomorrow night-s'posed to be down in the mid-upper 20s.



you got room fer me and 2 youngans fer tonight and tomorrow... i will bring the beer.


----------



## Resica (Apr 21, 2012)

Calling for the possibility of a foot of snow in the Appalachians up this way near camp. Had one at the end of Oct. and now end of April, bookend storms.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 22, 2012)

Resica said:


> Calling for the possibility of a foot of snow in the Appalachians up this way near camp. Had one at the end of Oct. and now end of April, bookend storms.



Yeah those spring snows with leaves already on the trees can be rough. We're supposed to get snow tonight all the way down here in the Smokies.


----------



## Resica (Apr 22, 2012)

The fall storm with leaves on was rough as well. I heard they're calling for 12-18 in some spots.  Been an early spring up here, so more leaf than usual at elevation.


----------



## P C I (Apr 22, 2012)

Been a crazy spring here in Iowa it was warm & every thing leafed out. Here comes a good freeze most apple trees were OK as fruit was already set but was devastating to the grape growers. Going to be hard on the small wineries in the state. Some had sweet corn up I know one grower that lost 4 acres $900 worth of seed gone.


----------



## Resica (Apr 22, 2012)

Forecast for my cabin area. Wish  I could be there.



Winter Storm Warning for Northern Centre, PA 
From 10:00 PM EDT, Sun., Apr 22, 2012 until 12:00 PM EDT, Tue., Apr 24, 2012 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Issued by The National Weather Service
State College, PA 
Sun, Apr 22, 2012, 4:20 PM EDT 
Local Radar Map
Updated Apr 22, 2012, 4:55pm EDT 
Get WeatherReady
Prepare for Winter Storms 
Keep Safe During the Storm 
Driving in Snow & Ice 
Are You at Risk For Winter Storms? 
Get Live Traffic Reports 
... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS... CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. 

* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW... ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 

* ACCUMULATIONS... 5 TO 10 INCHES. 

* TIMING... LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS MONDAY. 

* IMPACTS... EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. THERE IS GREAT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE. THE FALLING TREES AND LIMBS WILL KNOCK DOWN UTILITY LINES... LIKELY CAUSING WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCUR IN RURAL LOCATIONS COULD BE LENGTHY. 

* WINDS... NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT... BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY. 

* TEMPERATURES... 32 TO 35 DEGREES. 

* VISIBILITIES... BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION... SINCE SOME TREES ALREADY CONTAIN NEAR FULL-FOLIAGE... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES FROM THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD... BLANKET AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 

More Information
... A DESTRUCTIVE LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... 

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD REACHING NEW JERSEY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A VERY HEAVY... WET... AND DESTRUCTIVE LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA... AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION AS WELL. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. GIVEN THE ACCELERATED GREEN UP AND LEAF OUT ACROSS THE REGION... THE HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE WHICH WILL LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES DUE TREES AND LIMBS FALLING ONTO UTILITY LINES. PERSONS... ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA... SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES


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## GA DAWG (Apr 22, 2012)

Might frost here. Blackberry winter has returned


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## DDD (Apr 22, 2012)

Resica said:


> Forecast for my cabin area. Wish  I could be there.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Spring Storms can be the worst!  Enjoy!


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## blood on the ground (Apr 24, 2012)

per the GMC it was a nice and cool 38 in paulding this morning..I love it. can we fast forward to October now?


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## Resica (Apr 24, 2012)

We received 3 inches of much needed rain here. 34 overnight here, 50 now. Saw where a place in south central Pa. received 23 inches of snow.


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## Da Possum (Jun 29, 2012)

I'm guessing that snow is out of the question for a little while?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Jun 29, 2012)

hdm03 said:


> I'm guessing that snow is out of the question for a little while?



Give it a week or two.


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## GA DAWG (Jun 29, 2012)

Early frost maybe?


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## Keebs (Jun 29, 2012)

ga dawg said:


> early frost maybe?


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## Resica (Jun 29, 2012)

Gonna be awhile before a frost.  Have a heat index of 105 here.


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## gacowboy (Jun 30, 2012)

GA DAWG said:


> Early frost maybe?



Yes! Please ....


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## PappyHoel (Dec 10, 2013)

It's going to get cold then hot again.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2013)

NASA Heliophysics Division reports high speed solar wind storm in progress buffeting earths magnetic poles. This is the first solar activity we've had in a while. Typically that gives us a 7 to 10 day lead time before a shift in the weather pattern. 

We'll see.


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## PappyHoel (Dec 10, 2013)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> NASA Heliophysics Division reports high speed solar wind storm in progress buffeting earths magnetic poles. This is the first solar activity we've had in a while. Typically that gives us a 7 to 10 day lead time before a shift in the weather pattern.
> 
> We'll see.



That's exactly what I just said.


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## DDD (Dec 11, 2013)

Why are we using the 2011-2012 weather page????


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## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2013)

DDD said:


> Why are we using the 2011-2012 weather page????


I have no idea? Some mod didn't do there job and lock it for us...


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## DDD (Dec 11, 2013)

Don't they know some idjit's will run in here and start using it???


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## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 12, 2013)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have no idea? Some mod didn't do there job and lock it for us...


Not quite 1000 posts

That's an easy fix!!........And it is done!!

Pappy is the one that dug this one up!!

Ya'll just fell for it!!


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