# Winter Weather Thread 2010-2011



## DDD (Nov 3, 2010)

Well folks, here we go again.  

Last year was by far A LOT of fun.  

This year has lots and lots of ????

Reason being, history and conditions are in polar oposites when it comes to what to expect.

So I will hold off on any predictions, other than, it is going to be cold this weekend and it would not surprise me if someone saw some flurries Friday or Saturday in the mountains shortly after the front whirls by.

I think November and December may surprise some folks at how cold it gets.  Deer Hunters like myself will eat it up.

The weather systems look to be spread out for now but look to be big cold air bringers from Canada.

I look forward to another fun winter!


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## Jeff C. (Nov 3, 2010)

Is it gonna snow in my backyard

Hope I'm the 1st


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## Sargent (Nov 3, 2010)

We have 12" of fresh snow in Alpharetta right now.


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## DDD (Nov 3, 2010)

Jeff C. said:


> Is it gonna snow in my backyard
> 
> Hope I'm the 1st



Jeff you got it wrong, it's like this...

"DDD, how much in Gainesville??  off Browns Bridge Road?  I work in Oakwood and my girlfriend lives in Flowery Branch.  If I go to her house after work, will the snow hold off long enough for me to get back home to my wife?"


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## doenightmare (Nov 3, 2010)

DDD:

Will I have to go to work on December 17th?


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## DDD (Nov 3, 2010)

doenightmare said:


> DDD:
> 
> Will I have to go to work on December 17th?



No.  Obama will send you a check for cold weather pay.


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 3, 2010)

http://www.ajc.com/news/snow-possible-in-north-715216.html 

Here we go!


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## rjcruiser (Nov 3, 2010)

Do you think it is going to get as far down as Covington?  



So.....you say that history and conditions are complete opposites.

What does the farmer's almanac say and what do conditions tell us?  I just want to see which one is wrong


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## Jeff C. (Nov 3, 2010)

DDD said:


> Jeff you got it wrong, it's like this...
> 
> "DDD, how much in Gainesville??  off Browns Bridge Road?  I work in Oakwood and my girlfriend lives in Flowery Branch.  If I go to her house after work, will the snow hold off long enough for me to get back home to my wife?"



I'm taking notes


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## win280 (Nov 3, 2010)

I thought you already predicted 2" of snow , +or- 2".Now your changing the story after I had made plans.


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 3, 2010)

If the models hold we could be looking at 12"+ for Macon in about 3 weeks.  

Sorry DDD we all appreciate what you do.   This thread got out of control last year with almost 100 people on this thread at once watching and waiting on your updates.  Keep up the good work!


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## DDD (Nov 3, 2010)

I believe its going to be one "storm" maybe 2.  Unlike last year where we had a shot at snow every 5-7 days.  

It will be much like the storm this weekend here on Thursday gone by Saturday and drops 2"+ of white stuff somewhere and not everywhere and that will be it.

I also think with the strong ridging in the Western half of the country we are more inclined (Just like today) to get a good wedge that gives those of us on the NE side of the state and ATL possibly a shot at a good ice storm.

Only time will tell.


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## DDD (Nov 3, 2010)

Nitram4891 said:


> If the models hold we could be looking at 12"+ for Macon in about 3 weeks.
> 
> Sorry DDD we all appreciate what you do.   This thread got out of control last year with almost 100 people on this thread at once watching and waiting on your updates.  Keep up the good work!



I tell ya what, last year logging on here and jumping on the winter wx thread and 100+ people viewing the thread was pretty awesome!  

Getting PM's from admins asking me to start a new thread because we were burning up too much space on the server!   Thats what I'm talking about!


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## bigox911 (Nov 3, 2010)

Glad to see this one finally 

Just started watching Dr. East again last week...may not be as eventful, but will be fun watching them come in.  Lookin forward to it


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## Dutch (Nov 3, 2010)

I've been telling folks to get prepared, thats its going to be a cold one this year. Every deer I have cleaned has had an incrediable amount of fat reserves built up. 

Mother nature is trying to tell us something.


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 3, 2010)

I keep saying it every year. We are wayyy overdue for a big ice storm. The snow is fun. Can do without the ice


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## whitetaco02 (Nov 3, 2010)

DDD said:


> I tell ya what, last year logging on here and jumping on the winter wx thread and 100+ people viewing the thread was pretty awesome!
> 
> Getting PM's from admins asking me to start a new thread because we were burning up too much space on the server!   Thats what I'm talking about!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 3, 2010)

Dutch said:


> I've been telling folks to get prepared, thats its going to be a cold one this year. Every deer I have cleaned has had an incrediable amount of fat reserves built up.
> 
> Mother nature is trying to tell us something.


 
Mother nature knows best. They can't say it was because of all of the rain and browse either, it was a dry hot summer.


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## deermeat270 (Nov 3, 2010)

Thank god DDD is back.  I plan on being in the woods Friday as the flurries come through.


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## david w. (Nov 3, 2010)

Please please please be a very cold winter....


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 4, 2010)

Burrrr...and so it begins lol
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HAMILTON...TO MACON...TO EATONTON...TO LEXINGTON.

COLD DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE CORE OF THE
COLD AIR WILL BE OVER GEORGIA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA.


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## DDD (Nov 4, 2010)

Anyone going to the Tennessee Mountains or Western N.C. mountains needs to be aware that roads might be bad up that way tonight into tomorrow.

NWS in Greenville - Spartanburg getting excited saying up to 6" on the western facing slopes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010 

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS... 

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMOKIES...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. 

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: 

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0009.101105T0400Z-101106T1000Z/

MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-

339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET... 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING... 

BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS ABOVE 3500 FEET. 

WHILE PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS BENEATH THE SMOKIES AND IN THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

LANE 

AFFECTED COUNTIES:
IN NORTH CAROLINA: HAYWOOD, MADISON, SWAIN.


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## DDD (Nov 4, 2010)

This is WAYYYYYYYYYYYY Early for this stuff.


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## david w. (Nov 4, 2010)

DDD said:


> This is WAYYYYYYYYYYYY Early for this stuff.




Is this a sign for a very cold winter?


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 4, 2010)

DDD said:


> This is WAYYYYYYYYYYYY Early for this stuff.





Kurt Melish is giving his Winter predection tomorrow mourning. I been waiting all week to hear what he says. Are we about on par for the first freeze of the year happening this weekend?


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## DDD (Nov 5, 2010)

A shot this morning from Purchase Knob up in North Carolina.

Welcome Winter to the SE!


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## bigox911 (Nov 5, 2010)

DDD said:


> A shot this morning from Purchase Knob up in North Carolina.
> 
> Welcome Winter to the SE!



Makes me want to take a drive!!  I bet it's nice up on Leconte this morning!


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## NCHillbilly (Nov 5, 2010)

DDD said:


> A shot this morning from Purchase Knob up in North Carolina.
> 
> Welcome Winter to the SE!



That's just a couple hills over from me. I can see The Purchase from my pasture above the house.


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## savreds (Nov 5, 2010)

I sure haven't had time to get on here lately other than taking an occasional peek at the boards but when I saw that DDD had started a new thread for this year it kinda perked me up a little bit.
My oldest son  and his team mates are going to be running in the state cross-country championship tomorrow morning up in Carrollton. He says that the low is forecast to be 26 ... it's going to be fun watching them running around in their running shorts and jerseys in the morning at 8:00     





















Oh yeah ... how much in Savannah?


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## bigox911 (Nov 5, 2010)

It's not showing up on radar, but my brother said he's sittin at a stop light in Dunwoody and sleet is bouncing off his hood


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## Patriot44 (Nov 5, 2010)

We have had several small DARK pop ups in Acworth this afternoon.  Small hail coming down with the rain right now.  Is this hail or big sleet????


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## bigox911 (Nov 5, 2010)

That would be sleet


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## Patriot44 (Nov 5, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> That would be sleet



It's pretty big too.  Must really be cold up there


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## pbradley (Nov 5, 2010)

will it snow while I'm up here in Appleton Wisconsin?


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## crackerdave (Nov 5, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> That would be sleet



I was up at my sister's splittin' firewood in Newnan a while ago. There wuz _"slail!!!!"_


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## NCHillbilly (Nov 5, 2010)

Pouring snow here in Haywood county, NC. Been snowing off and all all day. I'm headed out of this arctic region tomorrow morning-going down to central NC for a week of hunting where it don't look like the North Pole.


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## DDD (Nov 5, 2010)

Snowing very nicely in the NC mountains.  

Should be some good pics to come in the morning.


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## Resica (Nov 5, 2010)

Awesome, send some up here!!!


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## Keebs (Nov 5, 2010)

DDD said:


> Snowing very nicely in the NC mountains.
> 
> Should be some good pics to come in the morning.


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## Jeff C. (Nov 5, 2010)

DDD said:


> Snowing very nicely in the NC mountains.
> 
> Should be some good pics to come in the morning.



That's amazing really...seems kind of early in the year.


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## shakey gizzard (Nov 5, 2010)

The woolybears never lie!


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## DDD (Nov 8, 2010)

Looking at some long range stuff... the end of November around Thanks Giving is going to be interesting.  Probably just cold and raining but the next 30 days are going to be considered "stormy" in the midwest, laying down a nice snow pack.

This could set up nicely in our favor for winter weather through December and January.  It may also influence just raw temps with or without frozen precip mixed in.


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Looking at some long range stuff... the end of November around Thanks Giving is going to be interesting.  Probably just cold and raining but the next 30 days are going to be considered "stormy" in the midwest, laying down a nice snow pack.
> 
> This could set up nicely in our favor for winter weather through December and January.  It may also influence just raw temps with or without frozen precip mixed in.



It got Kirks attention..from his facebook page
"Gotta love the GFS showing about an inch of snow in Atlanta November 20th, LOL computers are funny. Can't buy it at this point."


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 8, 2010)

GFS has been showing wintery weather near Thanksgiving for quite some time now. Same for the dusting that NE GA got the other day. They may have fine tuned their forecast model to where they are more accurate than we give them credit for.


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 9, 2010)

Kirks little blurb from this mourning on FB

"Enjoy the warmth, major cold wave coming 3rd week of the month or so."


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## Bitteroot (Nov 9, 2010)

welllll the weather outside is frightful......


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## bigox911 (Nov 9, 2010)

Bitteroot said:


> welllll the weather outside is frightful......


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## DDD (Nov 11, 2010)

Time to talk weather models.

GFS on the 10 day swing is now showing just a zonal type flow across the South East.  

While the EURO is screaming for a major cold outbreak from Canada.  

Both show a closed upper low over Washington and then they split.  GFS drives the low down over California, down to Texas and then back up towards Chicago basically giving us mild temps and possible showers.

The EURO tells another story in complete opposite fashion.  The EURO takes the closed upper low and lets it ride the ridging that is deep intrenched across the western states.  The upper low dives off the ridge, cuts right across the heart of the country and digs towards the South East bringing with it some massively cold air and in some ensembles, taps the gulf for some moisture.

I think this is what Kirk Melish has seen and is somewhat biting on.  The EURO was the king of long range 7-10 days out last year.  The GFS always migrated towards the EURO down the stretch.  I don't think anything has changed in that regard.

The ridge over the western U.S. is so strong, I think the GFS has totally erased it from it's calculation at about the 180 hour mark.  For whatever reason the GFS's data gets screwy at the 180 hour mark (it did this last year).

These are just long range models and are really only worth about the price of pine bark right now, but it does point to change on the horizon.


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## BBQBOSS (Nov 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> Time to talk weather models.
> 
> GFS on the 10 day swing is now showing just a zonal type flow across the South East.
> 
> ...




But is it "change we can believe in"???


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> Time to talk weather models.
> 
> GFS on the 10 day swing is now showing just a zonal type flow across the South East.
> 
> ...


 

I tend to side with Kurt. Traditionally if a monster ULL tracks down into Texas we get it too.


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## Backcountry (Nov 11, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> But is it "change we can believe in"???



i'll believe in this more than the other.....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 11, 2010)

Not to derail the impending cold snap, but you hunters and fishermen may like this tool;

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=582478


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## DDD (Nov 15, 2010)

Hey kids, make sure you got plenty of warm gear for Thanksgiving and the days following.

EURO still preaching cold to come.

I am going to make a bold prediction... I am going to say we get snow in December.   You heard it here first.


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## slip (Nov 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> Hey kids, make sure you got plenty of warm gear for Thanksgiving and the days following.
> 
> EURO still preaching cold to come.
> 
> I am going to make a bold prediction... I am going to say we get snow in December.   You heard it here first.



YESSSSSS!


maybe my chance to hunt in the snow


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## win280 (Nov 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> Hey kids, make sure you got plenty of warm gear for Thanksgiving and the days following.
> 
> EURO still preaching cold to come.
> 
> I am going to make a bold prediction... I am going to say we get snow in December.   You heard it here first.



25th?


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## Keebs (Nov 15, 2010)

win280 said:


> 25th?


 in my backyard???


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## whitetaco02 (Nov 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> Hey kids, make sure you got plenty of warm gear for Thanksgiving and the days following.
> 
> EURO still preaching cold to come.
> 
> I am going to make a bold prediction... I am going to say we get snow in December.   You heard it here first.



Define WE?????


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2010)

The 25th?  I will say this, the later in December the better chance, in my opinion.

My boy taco, no way down to Warner Robins, when I say we, I mean I-20 North.  It's a long way off so start talking to Santa Clause now.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 16, 2010)

Trying to jinx it already, I see....


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## bigox911 (Nov 16, 2010)

I know it's changed already...but still...when I got up this morning and saw this


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## DDD (Nov 16, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I know it's changed already...but still...when I got up this morning and saw this




Nothing like a gulf Low with the freezing line down to Griffin.  

If nothing else, the pattern is our friend.


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 16, 2010)

DDD said:


> Nothing like a gulf Low with the freezing line down to Griffin.
> 
> If nothing else, the pattern is our friend.



Dang....now I have to start looking for websites where I can find models again.  Great....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 16, 2010)

Nitram4891 said:


> Dang....now I have to start looking for websites where I can find models again. Great....


 
Try Victoria's Secret, they have a few to choose from...


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## whitetaco02 (Nov 16, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Try Victoria's Secret, they have a few to choose from...



Yeah, post em up when you find them. 

It'll give me something to look at while I am trying to figure out the models Triple D, bigox and MC post up!


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## bigox911 (Nov 18, 2010)

Well the cold air will be here end of next week...finally


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 18, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Well the cold air will be here end of next week...finally


 I was just outside looking at the cottonball clouds. Means cooler crisper air is pushing them out. I better hook up with your favorite person and get me some firewood...


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## BBQBOSS (Nov 18, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I was just outside looking at the cottonball clouds. Means cooler crisper air is pushing them out. I better hook up with your favorite person and get me some firewood...



yeah git you some of that obnoxious Tech firewood.


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## bigox911 (Nov 18, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I was just outside looking at the cottonball clouds. Means cooler crisper air is pushing them out. I better hook up with your favorite person and get me some firewood...



  I'll send you the price list...he's liable to try and charge you more if he knows who you are on here


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## Miguel Cervantes (Nov 18, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I'll send you the price list...he's liable to try and charge you more if he knows who you are on here


 
What----evvahhh,,,,,,,he sold to you're UGA butt, he'll sell to anyone, prolly even Accubond.


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## gobbleinwoods (Nov 18, 2010)

Will there be moisture with the cold?


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## pbradley (Nov 18, 2010)




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## DDD (Nov 19, 2010)

So a little Friday afternoon update for those that care.

Thanks Giving day is going to be a transition day and Friday and Saturday are starting to look interesting to me.

The 28-30th really have my attention for some real possibility of some frozen stuff north of I-20.

Twister seems to lend to the thinking that NW GA may see some snow a week from today.  When models start showing measurable snow a week out... I have to point my ears and listen.


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## bigox911 (Nov 19, 2010)

Did your ears point when you saw this??


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 19, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Did your ears point when you saw this??



Man we saw a lot of this last year.  The precip totals are always over estimated and never really dip down enough.  

Except maybe this time they wont???


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## DDD (Nov 19, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Did your ears point when you saw this??



That right there is weather porn.  

Way too far out.  This year is going to be the year of 10-14 days out fantasy snow storms.

But again, the pattern is our friend.


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## Bnathanb1982 (Nov 21, 2010)

*update*

DDD can we get an update please.  Reading some other weather forums and they are still talking about a couple chances of a mixed bag of precip.  However they do not talk in layman terms that I can completely understand . Thanks


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## slip (Nov 21, 2010)

it feels like about dang 80 out there 


when is the snow coming again?


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## bigox911 (Nov 22, 2010)

Still showing madness a ways out...I like the trend though


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## Nitram4891 (Nov 24, 2010)

Update?


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## bigox911 (Nov 24, 2010)

Nitram4891 said:


> Update?



8-10" in your back yard December 6th


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## Bnathanb1982 (Nov 24, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> 8-10" in your back yard December 6th



8-10" of leaves?


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## DDD (Nov 26, 2010)

The update is late and forth coming.  The cold is loading up and without going into a lot of detail, old man winter is going to load up and really give us a show in December.

Lots of rain to come next week.  This figures because I am supposed to hunt Fort Yargo Tuesday and Wednesday and I may need to borrow some waders just to deer hunt.  GEEZ!

But, after that my eyes turn towards Canada.  Big pools of cold air just waiting to ride south.  Any disturbance out of the gulf after one of these sneak attacks from the north and the white stuff will fall.

The GFS shows some serious cold diving south.  It is probably over done, but even curving it's bias it is still going to be plenty cold and the GFS is showing disturbances moving out of the gulf around the same time.   

I say again, snow will fly nicely in December somewhere above I-20 before December 31.

I have some decent knee surgery coming up in about 3 weeks so its bound to be around that time.  I will let you know when it happens, because you can bet your bottom dollar that will be when I have to be cut on.


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## bigox911 (Nov 28, 2010)

DDD said:


> The update is late and forth coming.  The cold is loading up and without going into a lot of detail, old man winter is going to load up and really give us a show in December.
> 
> Lots of rain to come next week.  This figures because I am supposed to hunt Fort Yargo Tuesday and Wednesday and I may need to borrow some waders just to deer hunt.  GEEZ!
> 
> ...



What about before December 15th??


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## texwilliams (Nov 29, 2010)

My favorite thread of the year!!


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## DDD (Nov 29, 2010)

Oh Miguel...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010


.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK PRECIP TYPE AND NEAR-TERM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.
SO FAR ONLY SEEING ISOLD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. POPS LOOK
GOOD NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. CHANGED PRECIP TYPE TO LIGHT RAIN FOR
THIS MORNING AND JUST RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS LARGE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA TONIGHT...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD
KICK IN WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. 06Z-12Z MODELS NOT GOING
CRAZY WITH QPF TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING OVER NORTH OF I-85
THAN OTHER AREAS. 09Z SREF MEAN QPF LOOKS BEST.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUES. HAVE TWEAKED
LOCATION OF SVR THREAT TO NORTH OF CSG TO MCN 12Z-18Z AND SOUTH OF
LA GRANGE TO CANTON TO BLAIRSVILLE 18Z- 00Z. COULD SEE LINGERING
STRONG TO SVR STORMS IN FAR SE ZONES AFTER 00Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL PROGS OF SFC FRONT...WHICH ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV
RUNS. *ALSO NOTICED THAT MODELS SHOWING A LOT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT TUES. GIVEN 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND MLCAPE
AROUND 250-500 J/KG TUES...COULD SEE ISOLD TORNADOES. TORNADO EVENTS
IN THE COOL SEASON TEND TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH QLCS...HOWEVER
APPEARS STORMS EXPECTED CONTINUE IN QLCS MODE DURING THE MORNING TO
MID-AFTERNOON OVER CWA.*
SNELSON


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## huntinglady74 (Nov 29, 2010)

OK what does that mean in reg. talk? I've seen severle people talking snow next week for Ga.. Is that true?


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## Fro1911nut (Nov 29, 2010)

DDD said:


> Oh Miguel...
> 
> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> ...



It is way to cold out there for them to be talking about a chance of Tornado's tommrow 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS USHERING AMPLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...RAIN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO NORTH GEORGIA.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST GEORGIA CORNER. WITH MODELED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND
LIFTED INDICES AT -2 OR BELOW BY 18Z...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH
WORDING IN THE ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...HIGHLY MOIST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.


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## DEERFU (Nov 29, 2010)

DDD said:


> The update is late and forth coming.  The cold is loading up and without going into a lot of detail, old man winter is going to load up and really give us a show in December.
> 
> Lots of rain to come next week.  This figures because I am supposed to hunt Fort Yargo Tuesday and Wednesday and I may need to borrow some waders just to deer hunt.  GEEZ!
> 
> ...



Any thoughts on the forecast for N.Georgia snow on tues/weds of next week?


----------



## DDD (Nov 29, 2010)

DEERFU39 said:


> Any thoughts on the forecast for N.Georgia snow on tues/weds of next week?



Yeah, it's showing up on a lot of the models and the weather nerds are starting to chirp about it.

The cold air that is going to spill out of Canada is going to be down right frigid. 

The Euro and the GFS are all showing a LPS coming out of the gulf and over running this.  If this scenario was to happen it would be rather big considering it being the beginning of December.

Now, the GFS tends to over play 7-10 day models, but the EURO backs it up which has everyone .

I am not sold yet.  So stay tuned.

Met some woodites tonight at the meeting for the Fort Yargo hunt for tomorrow.  Good Lawd its going to be miserable tomorrow!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 1, 2010)

Any Updates?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 1, 2010)

We had white ground here this morning, flurries and snow showers until about lunchtime. Y'all can have my share of the snow and cold-it snowed twice a week here from mid-Dec to mid-March last year. I like it less every year. I'd be perfectly happy if it didn't snow all winter, it makes that 80-mile round trip to work not much fun. We've already had mornings in the teens, it barely got above freezing today. Here was my road in mid-December last year:


----------



## Oak-flat Hunter (Dec 1, 2010)

It's going too be a mild winter......


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 1, 2010)

Gonna be interesting to see what all happens while this cold air is hanging around


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 1, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Gonna be interesting to see what all happens while this cold air is hanging around



Do tell!


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 2, 2010)

Cold weather = Boooooooo!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 2, 2010)

Is any of this hitting the ground down is SWGA or is it just virga?


----------



## DDD (Dec 2, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Is any of this hitting the ground down is SWGA or is it just virga?



It's Virga.  Air is WAYYY to dry.

Since you mention South Georgia, lets talk about them and Florida for Monday-Wednesday.

Couple ensemble models are showing snow showers for Florida and South Ga Monday and Tuesday.

One thing is for sure... some serious, smack you in the face cold is coming next week and probably there after.


----------



## DDD (Dec 2, 2010)

Notice how far south that freezing line is.

This ensemble does not show the moisture being in.  It has it surpressed big time, which I can understand with that cold dome of High Pressure.

If you are planning on hunting next week, you might want to think electric socks!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 2, 2010)

The question is after Saturday, when does it get back above 50


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 2, 2010)

Not much for us...but still

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/ne...hristmas-predicted-for-1.asp?partner=facebook


----------



## DDD (Dec 2, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Not much for us...but still
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/ne...hristmas-predicted-for-1.asp?partner=facebook



JB completely bombed on his Christmas snow prediction last year, so here is to hoping!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 2, 2010)

Good gracious is it going to be cold next week!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 2, 2010)

DDD said:


> Notice how far south that freezing line is.
> 
> This ensemble does not show the moisture being in.  It has it surpressed big time, which I can understand with that cold dome of High Pressure.
> 
> If you are planning on hunting next week, you might want to think electric socks!


Great!!.......I have been enjoying the mild temps, and lower utility bills!!............Time to start hauling in the firewood!!


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 4, 2010)

figured this would have been blowin' up....drove through some sleet this AM from the lake in North Hall...now it's all cold wet rain


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## DDD (Dec 4, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> figured this would have been blowin' up....drove through some sleet this AM from the lake in North Hall...now it's all cold wet rain



Nah... its 56 degrees and light rain.  Nothing to crow about.


----------



## DDD (Dec 4, 2010)

FYI, its is going to be brutaly cold the next 4 days.  The mountains will be in the teens tomorrow night and it will be 18-22 in the metro ATL area.  

Chilly to say the least.


----------



## Eddy M. (Dec 4, 2010)

time to get ready for a BIG chill


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 4, 2010)

Man its gonna get cold! So much for the warmer than "normal" winter they forcasted for Georgia.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 4, 2010)

Got wind?


----------



## hayseed_theology (Dec 4, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Got wind?



Sure 'nuff.  The Weather Channel says 29 mph gusts.  I'm gettin' every bit of that right now.  I'm surprised I still have power.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 5, 2010)

Hey DDD. Wanna splain this? We all know that 30 degrees and rain is a bad combination. This is off of Wunderground.com for next friday's forecast.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows around 30.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 5, 2010)

Right now in Hillbillyland, it's 26*, inch of snow on the ground, still snowing, and 20 mph wind. At least it's warmed up from the 23* it was early this morning.  Y'all can have my share of the winter weather.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 5, 2010)

Gonna be up around Nashville this coming weekend.

What's it looking like for wintry precipitation?  I saw where there was a chance earlier on Sunday.  This is the first time I wish it wouldn't happen!


----------



## Resica (Dec 5, 2010)

Snowed lightly all weekend at the cabin, that is after 4 inches of rain and flooding.


----------



## DDD (Dec 5, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey DDD. Wanna splain this? We all know that 30 degrees and rain is a bad combination. This is off of Wunderground.com for next friday's forecast.
> 
> Friday Night
> Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows around 30.



I think they are planning on it raining before it gets below freezing.  Maps are not impressive.

In fact, I see more potential for Severe Wx in the next 7-10 days than anything.  But for the immediate future its going to be cooooooolllllldddddddd!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 5, 2010)

Resica said:


> Snowed lightly all weekend at the cabin, that is after 4 inches of rain and flooding.


Cool pic with the snow line in the upper elevation!!



DDD said:


> I think they are planning on it raining before it gets below freezing.  Maps are not impressive.
> 
> In fact, I see more potential for Severe Wx in the next 7-10 days than anything.  But for the immediate future its going to be cooooooolllllldddddddd!


...........I thought this was supposed to be a warmer drier winter with the La Nina' and all??.........Hauling firewood in everyday is not fun!!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 6, 2010)

Saw about 2" of the white stuff this weekend in Gatlingburg on Sat night/Sunday morning.


----------



## pbradley (Dec 6, 2010)

The former Mrs. PBradley got a dusting of snow up in Pigeon Forge.


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## GA DAWG (Dec 6, 2010)

Last Wed..They was snow an ice all over the top of burnt mountain..Just so yall know


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## biggtruxx (Dec 6, 2010)

DDD when you think if ever this year we will see our first frozen stuff?


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## Paymaster (Dec 7, 2010)

Predictions for next week please. Folks at work are already asking "What are the Woody's Weathermen sayin"!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 7, 2010)

Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
national weather service peachtree city ga
643 am est tue dec 7 2010

.short term /today through thursday/...
Cold and dry conditions expected to continue today...with high
pressure and northwest flow dominating the region. Models in good
agreement with the progression of a shortwave moving through ms and
al by wednesday morning...and pushing through ga by wednesday
evening. For the most part...looks like impacts should mainly be in
the form of increased cloud cover...although there is a slight
chance of a mix of rain and sleet across middle ga. Quite
possible that whatever develops may not reach the surface with
such a dry airmass...but with possible precipitation enhancement
resulting from csi banding or vertical motion...have gone ahead
and put sleet or mix of sleet in the grids. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time.

Dry and cold conditions continue post shortwave and remain so
through the end of the week. Forecast temperatures generally 15-20
degrees below normal...and a few sites could get within 2 degrees or
less of climate records. Guidance temps fairly close...and have
generally stayed with the cooler guidance on highs and a blend on
lows.


.long term /thursday night through monday/...
Cold and dry airmass dominates the region into the long term...and
models consistent with canadian low pressure dropping into the
central us by saturday afternoon. Gfs and ecmwf differ on placement
and strength of the low...with the ecmwf indicating a stronger low
over the midwest by 18z saturday...and the gfs weaker and over the
arklatex region. Overall...have tried to find a compromise between
models...with slight chance pops saturday morning...then chance pops
saturday through sunday night as cold front pushes through the
state. Wrap around moisture in north georgia in the post frontal
passage environment could produce snow or flurries into monday
morning. With the uncertainty associated with such an extended
forecast...have opted to go with no accumulations at this time.

Temperatures will generally remain below seasonal norms through the
long term...although expect a slight warm up into the weekend ahead
of the frontal passage. Cold air mass returns behind the
front...with temperatures again 10-15 degrees below normal.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 7, 2010)

Paymaster said:


> Predictions for next week please. Folks at work are already asking "What are the Woody's Weathermen sayin"!



COLD COLD COLD

Here's the current GFS...note where the blue 0 and -10 lines are.  These indicate temperature in degrees Celsius at around 5,000 feet. 







Here is what it is projecting for next Monday evening...notice how much further south that -10 line is at that time.






In addition to the cold temps those lines that are very close together indicate strong winds from the north.  Cold looks to stay with us until a slight warm up towards the end of next week...but the storm systems just look like they're lined up for a few weeks to come.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2010)

biggtruxx said:


> DDD when you think if ever this year we will see our first frozen stuff?



Slight shot Monday - Tuesday.  Flurries or snow showers.

A lot of model data coming out, I am going to try and cover at some point today.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2010)

To bounce off of what Bigox is saying...

Latest model data out of the ECWF is suggesting BLOCKBUSTER cold for Monday and Tuesday.  

Could be some of the coldest temps here since 1989 if the models were to verify.  The GFS and EURO are pointing that direction too.

Given verbatim, our highs in ATL Tuesday would be mid 20's.  I am talking extreme cold.

I will try to post more tonight and you will get a whole lot more this weekend from me, as I will be propped up due to some knee surgery.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2010)

Paymaster said:


> Predictions for next week please. Folks at work are already asking "What are the Woody's Weathermen sayin"!



Extreme cold to come Monday and Tuesday, not to mention the winds.  

Get your firewood ready.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2010)

Sounds like our typical shot at Snow before it warms back up to 70 for Christmas...


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2010)

Just to clarify how extreme I am talking...

The high temperature for Orlando next Thursday would be 32°


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2010)

Ironically we have started observing sunspots. Historically when the sun is more active and spots are present we have colder more active winters. Looks like the forecasters forgot to take this fact into consideration when plotting their long term forecast for this winter..


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 7, 2010)

DDD said:


> Extreme cold to come Monday and Tuesday, not to mention the winds.
> 
> Get your firewood ready.





Well thats just peachy!


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 7, 2010)

hmmmm! Might ought to check my anti-freeze!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 7, 2010)

Weatherunderground thinks there's a 50/50 chance it'll happen Sunday night.


----------



## DDD (Dec 7, 2010)

Alrighty, I will try not to be long, but I am increasingly becoming optomistic about the chance of snow here Sunday through Monday.

I never do like the cold chasing the moisture scenario.  It never seems to work out.  But, there is a lot of upper level dynmamics that make this POTENTIAL system different.  The upper level lift may cause this system to explode after the front has pushed through.  

This will create some serious wrap around moisture on the back side of the cold air that will result in some... what shall I say... DECENT snow showers over North and North East Georgia as far south as I-20 and Augusta areas.

The amount of precip is the big ????  This system could surprise or completely miss and disapoint.  The reason I am increasingly interested is due to the GFS, EURO and ECMF all getting on board with the idea.

Big Ox... you oughta love this...


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 7, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ironically we have started observing sunspots. Historically when the sun is more active and spots are present we have colder more active winters. Looks like the forecasters forgot to take this fact into consideration when plotting their long term forecast for this winter..



I'm starting to think the same folks are doing the hurricane forecasts and the winter forecasts now 



DDD said:


> Alrighty, I will try not to be long, but I am increasingly becoming optomistic about the chance of snow here Sunday through Monday.
> 
> I never do like the cold chasing the moisture scenario.  It never seems to work out.  But, there is a lot of upper level dynmamics that make this POTENTIAL system different.  The upper level lift may cause this system to explode after the front has pushed through.
> 
> ...




    The QPF numbers look plenty good...gonna be fun watching it the next couple of days to see what they say  

If there was a good time to be laid up, I guess this would be it


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2010)

The local weather geeks on our news channels made the dumbest statement I've heard in a good while. As of yet I can't figure how they figure this one yet. They said the best chance of seeing any flurries Sunday afternoon or evening will be south of I-20 down towards Newnan...!!!??? 

WU seems to disagree with them. But hey, what do I know??


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 8, 2010)

bring it on... cold, snow, ice, sleet, I love it all.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 8, 2010)

Looks like Alabama is getting some weather this AM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2010)

gobbleinwoods said:


> Looks like Alabama is getting some weather this AM


 
HOLY COW!!!! Maybe the geeks on local weather were talking about today!! I only half listen to them anyway.
It must be upper level reflections, none of the cities in Alabama are reporting anything but cloudy skies where it shows snow. I suspect the air is too dry and it just isn't reaching the ground.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> HOLY COW!!!! Maybe the geeks on local weather were talking about today!! I only half listen to them anyway.
> It must be upper level reflections, none of the cities in Alabama are reporting anything but cloudy skies where it shows snow. I suspect the air is too dry and it just isn't reaching the ground.
> 
> View attachment 572834



Virga Snow Storm 2010


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

The tale of two sets of models giving 2 scenarios.  Which one will win?  Not sure.

The Canadian and NoGaps model take the system through the Ohio Valley and Kentucky areas.
The GFS and the ECMF take the Low south through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it bombs out and really throws moisture around.
There is no doubt that one of these groups is WAYYY wrong and it will mean the difference in cold and clear and cold and snow.
With this system being 5 days out… I don’t trust either one, however, the GFS has handled this little disturbance that we see today the best, so I am slightly tilting towards the GFS but something in my gut tells me not to get to head over heels.
If this model were to verify Sunday night, a good many school systems would get a day off on Monday and probably Tuesday.  The cold that falls in behind the moisture maker is just unreal.  I think we will go below freezing Sunday night and not come above freezing until Wednesday or Thursday.  Its going to be brutal.


----------



## marknga (Dec 8, 2010)

Dang DDD, it is only the second week of December.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 8, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> HOLY COW!!!! Maybe the geeks on local weather were talking about today!! I only half listen to them anyway.
> It must be upper level reflections, none of the cities in Alabama are reporting anything but cloudy skies where it shows snow. I suspect the air is too dry and it just isn't reaching the ground.
> 
> View attachment 572834



Just talked to someone in Enterprise, AL and they said it was coming down good 



DDD said:


> The tale of two sets of models giving 2 scenarios.  Which one will win?  Not sure.
> 
> The Canadian and NoGaps model take the system through the Ohio Valley and Kentucky areas.
> The GFS and the ECMF take the Low south through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it bombs out and really throws moisture around.
> ...



Always loved a good tale


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

Reports coming in that it is snowing in South Alabama and South GA.  

So Cool!


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

marknga said:


> Dang DDD, it is only the second week of December.



Yeah, but dont let it fool you.  This might be all we get for the year.  January and February long range looks very mild.


----------



## georgia357 (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Reports coming in that it is snowing in South Alabama and South GA.
> 
> So Cool!




Yep, my wife is in Enterprise, Al and she said the snow is really coming down.  She's worried about getting snowed in.  


"Just talked to someone in Enterprise, AL and they said it was coming down good.  bigox911", somethings looking kind of suspicious.


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 8, 2010)

And this thread just got interesting


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Yeah, but dont let it fool you.  This might be all we get for the year.  January and February long range looks very mild.



i dont understand how one can even tell what its going to do 4,6,8 weeks away...  Just sayin...


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

georgia357 said:


> Yep, my wife is in Enterprise, Al and she said the snow is really coming down.  She's worried about getting snowed in.
> 
> 
> "Just talked to someone in Enterprise, AL and they said it was coming down good.  bigox911", somethings looking kind of suspicious.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> i dont understand how one can even tell what its going to do 4,6,8 weeks away...  Just sayin...



Same way  I told you 2 weeks ago snow was going to be on the ground before Christmas.

You can see a lot in the patterns over Canada and relate those back to similar years and the North Atlantic Ocilation and the La Nina play into it as well.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Same way  I told you 2 weeks ago snow was going to be on the ground before Christmas.
> 
> You can see a lot in the patterns over Canada and relate those back to similar years and the North Atlantic Ocilation and the La Nina play into it as well.



So how much in my back yard on Tuesday the 28th???  I need to call in to work that day. Falcons are playing MNF.   Just make it happen!


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2010)

There`s an occasional snowflake floatin` down around here right now.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> So how much in my back yard on Tuesday the 28th???  I need to call in to work that day. Falcons are playing MNF.   Just make it happen!



Dead Presidents man!  

Dead Presidents.  They can make it happen!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Dead Presidents man!
> 
> Dead Presidents.  They can make it happen!



I have a pocket full of Washingtons.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> I have a pocket full of Washingtons.



Wrong thread.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

Nicodemus said:


> There`s an occasional snowflake floatin` down around here right now.



Nick,

I know you will think I am crazy, but if you go outside and look up at the clouds, I would be willing to bet you can see snow about 2000 feet up that is not making it to the ground.

Especially if you get a dark cloud off in the distance and the snow is falling between you and the cloud but evaporating before it hits the ground.

That is a Virga snow storm and due to surface temps and the air being so dry it's evaporating before it reaches the ground.  The ones you see float down are big ones that just never melted.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> Nick,
> 
> I know you will think I am crazy, but if you go outside and look up at the clouds, I would be willing to bet you can see snow about 2000 feet up that is not making it to the ground.
> 
> ...





I got to take a look now!! Don`t look like it`s gonna get outa the mid 30s here either.


----------



## Sargent (Dec 8, 2010)

DDD said:


> That is a Virga snow storm



Pervert.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 8, 2010)

According to the boys that have been getting it right long before TV or the internet, the weather guru's are wrong.


----------



## sljones (Dec 8, 2010)

Really coming down here in town in McRae. Big fluffy flakes.


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

From the NWS out of Peachtree City 30 minutes ago...



> BEHIND THE
> FRONT...THE COLD AIR SURGES DOWN...POSSIBLY COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS
> SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALSO SWITCH THE RAIN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
> OVER PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST GA. *MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
> ...


----------



## DDD (Dec 8, 2010)

sljones said:


> Really coming down here in town in McRae. Big fluffy flakes.



Pictures dude.  I need pictures.


----------



## Resica (Dec 8, 2010)

Nicodemus said:


> There`s an occasional snowflake floatin` down around here right now.



Nothing here.


----------



## sljones (Dec 8, 2010)

Cell phone picture is pathetic. It has quit now with only an occasional flake. Pretty for a while though.


----------



## slip (Dec 8, 2010)

little pockets of swamp are froze here, just sheets of ice.

we've made it all the way up to a warm and toastie 33 here.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 8, 2010)

Little bit fallin` here now.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 8, 2010)

georgia357 said:


> Yep, my wife is in Enterprise, Al and she said the snow is really coming down.  She's worried about getting snowed in.
> 
> 
> "Just talked to someone in Enterprise, AL and they said it was coming down good.  bigox911", somethings looking kind of suspicious.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Dec 8, 2010)

Just got a call from Macon and they have snow!!


----------



## david w. (Dec 8, 2010)

looks like eatonton will get alittle soon.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Dec 8, 2010)

david w. said:


> looks like eatonton will get alittle soon.



I just checked...says for a few hours we should see flakes. And if figures, I'll be in school!


----------



## Keebs (Dec 8, 2010)

sljones said:


> Really coming down here in town in McRae. Big fluffy flakes.





Nicodemus said:


> Little bit fallin` here now.



allllll around me but none where I am!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 8, 2010)

Snowing pretty good in Warner Robins.  The hood of my truck was covered in white. 

Looks like some more is headed this way too!


----------



## nickel back (Dec 9, 2010)

Brrrrr......


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2010)

So the GFS says cancel the snow Sunday night, along with the Euro and the Canadian model.  Unless this comes back, I am not sure we will see flakes fly.

However, Wednesday and Thursday is starting to show a wedge like scenario  with a complete mess in place.

With the cold air we have had this week and the additional cold shot that will come in Sunday night and last until Wednesday... Whatever falls will stick and right now it would be freezing rain and it would stick to roads in my opinion.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2010)

DDD said:


> So the GFS says cancel the snow Sunday night, along with the Euro and the Canadian model. Unless this comes back, I am not sure we will see flakes fly.
> 
> However, Wednesday and Thursday is starting to show a wedge like scenario with a complete mess in place.
> 
> With the cold air we have had this week and the additional cold shot that will come in Sunday night and last until Wednesday... Whatever falls will stick and right now it would be freezing rain and it would stick to roads in my opinion.


 
I noticed that the forecast was shifting today. Have you looked at the models around the 20th??


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 9, 2010)

i need a complete breakdown and constant streaming updates on what the weather is going to do between Woodstock and Nashville on the 17th and 18th. thanks!


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I noticed that the forecast was shifting today. Have you looked at the models around the 20th??



Yes! 

But, the GFS has advertised fantasy storms 10 days out now for 2 weeks.  But, I read some things today that point towards the Gulf ejecting some moisture over that cold outbreak.  

I am trying to curb my enthusiasim until it gets closer, but I would love to see it happen.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 9, 2010)

I want frozen precipitiation next week.   Put the fix in.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 9, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> i need a complete breakdown and constant streaming updates on what the weather is going to do between Woodstock and Nashville on the 17th and 18th. thanks!



After about 730 it just ain't gonna matter


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 9, 2010)

You three either need to get a room or share what you all are seeing!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2010)

DDD said:


> Yes!
> 
> But, the GFS has advertised fantasy storms 10 days out now for 2 weeks. But, I read some things today that point towards the Gulf ejecting some moisture over that cold outbreak.
> 
> I am trying to curb my enthusiasim until it gets closer, but I would love to see it happen.


 
Just checked the wunderground forecast for Sunday. It has changed again, which means two or more models have come into alignment for Sunday. They have gone from 20% chance of snow on Sunday evening, to nothing, to now forcasting 40% chance of snow for Sunday during the day.


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2010)

GFS is coming out now... I will report in then.

Japaneese model has the LPS going south and bombing out over Colombus GA area.  This would be a signifigant change.

The NAM takes the LPS to the Coast around Savanah - Charleston and bombs out.  The amount of moisture this would throw back over it's shoulder into FRIGID temps would be crazy.  The NAM also advertises colder temps than it has progged in previous runs.


----------



## DDD (Dec 9, 2010)

GFS is very dry, but very, very cold.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 9, 2010)

this is going to be like what happened last year in February....3 days before they only said 40 and rain....and then it snowed...and iced up the roads....and the weather sites were saying it was raining...we ended up with 7 inches in central Jackson County....I see this turning into a mess....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 9, 2010)

DDD said:


> GFS is very dry, but very, very cold.


 Best I can tell from the charts is that from about 1pm on Sunday the best shot at winter precip is on a line from around Columbus up to Hartwell. What are you getting out of this?


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 10, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Best I can tell from the charts is that from about 1pm on Sunday the best shot at winter precip is on a line from around Columbus up to Hartwell. What are you getting out of this?



Hope that MOnday will be another day to hunt.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2010)

Of course again this morning it is nearly out of the forecast again..
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





.I'll be ill if Montgomery Al. gets pounded and we just get a two flake pass by...


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

I have just about given up on even seeing flurries in the Metro ATL area Sunday night.  I think the mountains in extreme NE Georgia will have the best shot at some snow showers and maybe some upsloaping snows once the front passes.

The Eastern Tennessee Mountains and the Western facing mountains of North Carolina have the best shot at snow... but not only snow... super high winds will cause blizzard conditions there.


Wednesday - Thursday is starting to peek my interest, but will have to wait until Sunday - Monday to get a real handle on whats happening there.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 10, 2010)

Intellicast and Weather Channel are forecasting 90% and 68% Snow for Gainesville all day Sunday!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> Intellicast and Weather Channel are forecasting 90% and 68% Snow for Gainesville all day Sunday!!!



I am telling ya... it might be some flurries and flurries at best.

Gainesville well be border line because it's in the NE section of the state... they most certainly stand a better chance than Atlanta, Marietta and Rome.  But even then I think it is a stretch.

The NAM modeling is coming out now and the GFS will be out around 11:30.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 10, 2010)

they are talking heavy rain all day then 22 degrees....you think we might have a major icing problem???


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> they are talking heavy rain all day then 22 degrees....you think we might have a major icing problem???



Possibly.

Once the front passes the wind is going to be nuts!  

The high for Sunday will occur around midnight Sunday and the temp is going to drop all day.  

The cold temps we have had here all this week has the ground really frozen so it will be interesting.  

The front is really going to push the moisture out before the cold gets here.  The snow that they are all spying on is the wrap around moisture that in these situations usually the mountains get and due to the dry air behind the front, it evaporates before it ever makes it to the piedmont regions and even the foothills.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 10, 2010)

bomb-bo-gen-e-sis


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

The NAM takes the LPS up through the Ohio Valley and across Lake Michigan.

In this scenario it would not give us hardly any wrap around moisture for snow.  

The LPS needs to go through South Carolina for any chance at snow from the wrap around moisture.  We need to be on the the NW side of the center of that LPS.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 10, 2010)

DDD said:


> The NAM takes the LPS up through the Ohio Valley and across Lake Michigan.
> 
> In this scenario it would not give us hardly any wrap around moisture for snow.
> 
> The LPS needs to go through South Carolina for any chance at snow from the wrap around moisture. We need to be on the the NW side of the center of that LPS.


 
One thing I've learned about preliminary forecast for winter weather, is that unlike thunderstorm forecast, for some reason they tend to leave the effects of the jetstream and wind shear out of winter forecast. This GPS model of the windshear for Sunday might explain where the winds will be coming from, how strong they'll be, and just why the don't need to discount a flake or million falling on that Columbus to Hartwell north boundary.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 10, 2010)

Its needs to snow about 6 inches or so..Looks like thats gonna be the only way I can catch up with the big deer I'm after..I saw him out feeding in the daylight last year right during one of our snows..He might do it again


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

GFS says no go for snow.

Hugh, given your scenario the only problem is there is no moisture.

We might see a few flakes get dropped simple because the air is going to be so dry it will squeeze out what ever moisture is present in the atmosphere, but the core of the disturbance is way far north.

More systems are lined up in the future from now to Christmas, so one is bound to work out.


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> Intellicast and Weather Channel are forecasting 90% and 68% Snow for Gainesville all day Sunday!!!



Ok, so looking at the actual soundings for Gainesville (raw data) The thicknesses will support flurries and possible snow showers.

Also, the GFS likes the North West corner of the state now as well as the NE side of the state.  I think the ATL might see some flurries.  Mainly something to look at.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 10, 2010)

Statement as of 2:23 PM EST on December 10, 2010


... Arctic blast headed for Georgia this weekend... 

Another Arctic blast will be spreading across north and central
Georgia Sunday into Monday. This will bring some of the coldest
air of the season with wind chill readings dropping into the
single digits Sunday night across north Georgia.

A storm system is becoming better organized over the middle of the
country this afternoon. As this system strengthens... it will move
east and across north and central Georgia. Rain will spread
across the area ahead of the front Saturday night. The cold front
will move across the Atlanta and Columbus areas shortly after
midnight Saturday night... and into the Carolinas by daybreak
Sunday.

Some of the rain could turn to snow in north Georgia late
Saturday night... and continue as light snow through the day
Sunday. Less than 1 inch of snow is possible across the mountains
of north Georgia Sunday. Light snow or flurries will spread
across the Atlanta and Athens areas where only a dusting is
possible Sunday afternoon. Flurries could spread into central
Georgia Sunday afternoon but no accumulation is expected.

Very strong northwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph Sunday
with some gusts nearing 40 mph. The winds will diminish to 15 to
30 mph Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will remain nearly
steady or slowly fall through the 30s... and into the teens and 20s
Sunday night. Wind chill values will be in the 20s Sunday
afternoon across much of the area... dropping into the single
digits north... and the teens across central Georgia Sunday night.

People across north and central Georgia should be prepared for the
rapidly changing weather conditions this weekend and be prepared
for very cold weather Sunday and Sunday night.


----------



## biggtruxx (Dec 10, 2010)

Come on I hope the man upstairs is just messing with them and does what he does best....... steers it perfectly to create our first good snow amount! Fingers are crossed!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 10, 2010)

18Z GFS is rather impressive with the wrap around moisture for Gainesville, NE GA as a whole and even Metro Atlanta should get in on the flurrie action.

The wind is going to be howling so we will call this the 2010 Flizzard.  

I don't expect a whole lot because there simply is not enough moisture to tap and give us a good snowing.  

However, the mountain folks of the board might get 2-3" depending on snow bands and altitude.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 10, 2010)

What time frame are we looking at for the n ga mtns?


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 10, 2010)

WU has a 100% chance of rain turning to snow for Sunday here.  Ending early morning and then 20% for the rest of the daylight hours.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

The GFS is out of it's freaking processor, no way this is going to happen...


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The GFS is out of it's freaking processor, no way this is going to happen...



While that looks like a lot of snow, its going to be a lot of flurries and dusting of snow.

I believe we will see accumulating snow in the N. GA mountains tonight and into tomorrow.  Probably around 2".

I think Gainesville may see an inch and the metro ATL may get a dusting.  

Remember about 2002-2003... there was a similar set up and a band of snow just exploded up around Acworth and moved South East across I-75 all the way to Lawrenceville.  It dumped 2" of snow in about an hour and then just faded off the radar.

It is going to be that type of thing... the wrap around moisture behind this thing will only need the slightest bit of lift, and it will fire off snow showers at will.

Hence this 30 minutes ago...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

.UPDATE...
THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR A WET SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WINDY
AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAT COULD ACCUMULATE OVER PARTS OF FAR N GA IF THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN.


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

I also think places like Cherokee, N.C., Pickens County... places up that side of the N. Carolina mountains may be rain for a short period of time and change over to all snow rather quickly.  I believe you may see places like that get 6-10 inches today into tomorrow.

On another note, Wisconsin and Minnesota are going to have record setting snow fall today in the way of so much snow in such a short period of time.

It's a great weekend to be confined to the couch for this weather geek.  LOL!  Being 48 hours out of surgery, the knee is starting to let me know it's been cut on!


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 11, 2010)

No updates? Its getting close


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

This is one freak of a storm system. It is drawing warm gulf air and moisture way up into the countries midsection ahead of the cold air coming down from Canada behind it.

I'm not sure any computer or human knows exactly how to interpret the outcome of this one.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 11, 2010)

I still think this is going to be bigger than forecasted. The way they have the temps. falling and precip moving in it's gonna get sloppy....last year they forecasted a dusting to an inch...we got 7 inches...and were iced in...


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This is one freak of a storm system. It is drawing warm gulf air and moisture way up into the countries midsection ahead of the cold air coming down from Canada behind it.
> 
> I'm not sure any computer or human knows exactly how to interpret the outcome of this one.
> 
> View attachment 573370


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NE/Ainsworth.html


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Even with latest models... still think flurries for most... NE and NW mountains may be able to measure some snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Moisture is getting pulled way into the backside of this LPS. I guess it will depend on how far south the actual low moves as to what we get.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Wednesday night's forecast;

<TABLE class=dataTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=wHover><TD>
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




</TD><TD class=full>Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 30s. 
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Get you some of this out of the FFC...

Miguel, you can take Wednesday forward and throw it out the window.  The models are all screwed up.



> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> 418 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010
> 
> ...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> Get you some of this out of the FFC...
> 
> Miguel, you can take Wednesday forward and throw it out the window. The models are all screwed up.


 
Maybe, but their forecast for tonight is already out the window. We hit 49 today and it has been steadily falling all day, now 44. I don't see mid 50's tonight happening. I think the NWS is putting too much faith in the models and not enough common sense in ground truth data that is occuring as we speak to formulate their forecast.


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maybe, but their forecast for tonight is already out the window. We hit 49 today and it has been steadily falling all day, now 44. I don't see mid 50's tonight happening. I think the NWS is putting too much faith in the models and not enough common sense in ground truth data that is occuring as we speak to formulate their forecast.



I don't think we reached 54 today due to the cloud cover.  In one of their discos yesterday they mentioned that we might not make that.

With the SW flow I look for us to get to about 38 before the rain starts.


That maybe the longest discussion I have ever seen out of them.  The stuff going on in the mountains is going to be nuts.  They may get a burst of snow up there ahead of the front that may really dump some snow somewhere in the Northern reaches.

As far as Wednesday forward... if the Euro wins out it is going to be another winter event, if the GFS wins out its going to be warm... almost 60 degrees.  Talk about polar oposites.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 11, 2010)

Personally I will pull for the euro.


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

You think this system isn't something crazy?  This is NUTS!  (Pulled this from another board)

Check this out from Iowa:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
DICKINSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
446 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
DICKINSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ABSOLUTELY NO TRAVEL IN DICKINSON COUNTY TONIGHT. THE IOWA
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IS PULLING ALL REMAINING PLOWS AT 5
PM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ALL RURAL ROADS ARE OR SOON WILL BE
IMPASSIBLE. CITY STREETS ARE ALSO IMPASSIBLE. VISIBILITY IS DOWN
TO ZERO IN RURAL AREAS AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RESCUE OF ANY STRANDED INDIVIDUALS TONIGHT MAY
BE IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU DO BECOME STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

Someone must be bored at the ffc tonight...I like it though.  We are at 46 right now and the steady east wind is dying off some and switching more to se.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> You think this system isn't something crazy?  This is NUTS!  (Pulled this from another board)
> 
> Check this out from Iowa:
> 
> ...


Ya have been watching video out of MN and its nuts. Was hearing about some nfl team stranded in kansas city and can't get in to Minneapolis for the game tomorrow.


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

It's interesting.  Huntsville, Alabama is sitting at 53 degrees right now out in front of the approaching weather.

That SW wind is pumping in warm temps.  Should be interesting to see what our temps do as that front approaches.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> You think this system isn't something crazy?  This is NUTS!  (Pulled this from another board)
> 
> Check this out from Iowa:



Been there.  Everyone with any sense keeps an emergency survival box in there car in the winter.   Food, water, blanket, etc.

Montana pulled their plows off the roads around noon today.  Too risky for them to be out.


As far as temps go it is 46 at my house with a slight SE breeze.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 11, 2010)

Im in Sedalia Mo, when I went to work this morning, it was 48.  Right now it is 4 WC and snowing.....it's COLD!!!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 11, 2010)

Ddd what am i looking At for tomorrow coming back from tenn?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

40 degrees here, 54 in Birmingham.......crazy stuff


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

38 here now.............hmmmmmm


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 38 here now.............hmmmmmm



Temp has come UP to 41 and is climbing.

You never can beat that SW flow.


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 11, 2010)

Its 0 here now WC.  Got real cold real quick.  Snow is W to E.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> Temp has come UP to 41 and is climbing.
> 
> You never can beat that SW flow.


 
43 in my backyard........DANGIT !!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> Ddd what am i looking At for tomorrow coming back from tenn?



Just flurries.  Maybe a snow shower.  No worries with the interstates or even the side roads.

The mountains in Eastern Tenn. are going to get hammered.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

Still 46 here as it has been for the last 2-3 hours


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Well I just pulled Murphy's Law rank on this system to guarantee that it won't do anything and will warm up later this week. I just put enough firewood for two weeks on my covered deck..


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well I just pulled Murphy's Law rank on this system to guarantee that it won't do anything and will warm up later this week. I just put enough firewood for two weeks on my covered deck..



Way to go!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well I just pulled Murphy's Law rank on this system to guarantee that it won't do anything and will warm up later this week. I just put enough firewood for two weeks on my covered deck..



 At least we know who to thank now


----------



## Jeff C. (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well I just pulled Murphy's Law rank on this system to guarantee that it won't do anything and will warm up later this week. I just put enough firewood for two weeks on my covered deck..



Thank God.....Now I'll have an explanation for Jared as to why we don't get snow here in GA. I'll just tell him it's Miguel Cervantes fault 

He's been telling/arguing for a month now with me about our snow chances.....and this happens every year for months

He ain't gonna like Miguel no mo!!! Should I throw DDD under the bus too???


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 11, 2010)

Jeff C. said:


> Thank God.....Now I'll have an explanation for Jared as to why we don't get snow here in GA. I'll just tell him it's Miguel Cervantes fault
> 
> He's been telling/arguing for a month now with me about our snow chances.....and this happens every year for months
> 
> He ain't gonna like Miguel no mo!!! Should I throw DDD under the bus too???



Maybe he needs to give Miggy 2 thumbs up


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 11, 2010)

Jeff Raines said:


> Maybe he needs to give Miggy 2 thumbs up



2nded


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Jeff C. said:


> Thank God.....Now I'll have an explanation for Jared as to why we don't get snow here in GA. I'll just tell him it's Miguel Cervantes fault
> 
> He's been telling/arguing for a month now with me about our snow chances.....and this happens every year for months
> 
> He ain't gonna like Miguel no mo!!! Should I throw DDD under the bus too???


 
Sure, why not..



Jeff Raines said:


> Maybe he needs to give Miggy 2 thumbs up


 
Nooooooo!!!! Maybe it'll flurry in Locust Grove and he can at least be a little right...


----------



## DDD (Dec 11, 2010)

Jeff C. said:


> Thank God.....Now I'll have an explanation for Jared as to why we don't get snow here in GA. I'll just tell him it's Miguel Cervantes fault
> 
> He's been telling/arguing for a month now with me about our snow chances.....and this happens every year for months
> 
> He ain't gonna like Miguel no mo!!! Should I throw DDD under the bus too???



Don't put me in that category!


----------



## slip (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nooooooo!!!! Maybe it'll flurry in Locust Grove and he can at least be a little right...



i hope it does


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

DDD said:


> Don't put me in that category!


 
Go ahead Jeff C. Every good ref. needs a good coon finger every now and then...


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 11, 2010)

it's gonna get wet here soon....then we got to face 20 right after that...might not be snow even but gonna be horrible on the roads


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 11, 2010)

Out of Huntsville

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 am to 6 PM CST
Sunday...
... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 9 am CST
Monday...

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for all of northern Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee... which is in effect from 3 am Sunday to 6 PM Sunday. A
Wind Chill Advisory has also been issued. This Wind Chill Advisory is
in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 9 am Monday.

A strong cold front is expected to move across the area from west to
east late tonight. Heavy rainfall ahead of the cold front is expected
to change over to light snow starting around 3 am Sunday. Snowfall
accumulations around one inch are possible... with locally higher
amounts possible across southern middle Tennessee and northeast
Alabama... through Sunday afternoon. In addition... residual water
from heavier rains Saturday evening will have the possibility of
freezing on area roads... bridges and overpasses Sunday morning. The
possibility for black ice and freezing conditions on some bridges and
overpasses will remain possible through Sunday.

Strong northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph... with gusts around 35
mph... are also expected to develop Sunday. These gusty winds may
briefly interact with light snow bands causing blowing snow with
reduced visibilities.

Much colder air is then expected to overspread the area Sunday night
with overnight temperatures falling into the teens. With northwest
winds gusting around 25 mph... wind chill values may fall near or
below the zero degree mark through Monday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear heavy clothing
including a hat and gloves.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Fro1911nut said:


> Out of Huntsville
> 
> ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 am to 6 PM CST
> Sunday...
> ...


 
Yep, and for what it's worth, this winter weather advisory stopped at the Tennessee line 3 hours ago..


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 11, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, and for what it's worth, this winter weather advisory stopped at the Tennessee line 3 hours ago..



Come on south!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 11, 2010)

Hey DDD, ,you think this Low that just developed over Bama could serve as a good kicker to get some good stuff on in here?


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 11, 2010)

wow...weather.com and intellicast read Hoschton as 45...car temp. and my deck therm. both hovering at 38....hmmmm


----------



## Patriot44 (Dec 11, 2010)

I hope to get some snow when I get home....As of this min, I am in a complete white out. below zero temps WC and I cannot see more than 30yds here in Mo.


----------



## packrat (Dec 11, 2010)

*Weather*

Light sleet here in Toccoa, GA near the Stephens Co. Habersham Co. line @ 23:00 hours


----------



## slip (Dec 11, 2010)

went from 42 to 44 in the last hour.


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

33 and raining here.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2010)

Dropped 4 degrees to 42 since the rain started.  Gonna be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 12, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Dropped 4 degrees to 42 since the rain started.  Gonna be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning.



I'll be awake all night.at work,here in acworth


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 12, 2010)

It was 41 here a few hours ago!!.......Temp has come up to 43 and been holding steady for the last couple of hours........No rain yet


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 12, 2010)

Rains over. White stuff is on its way Aint it?


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

52 with light rain here.


----------



## Turkeypaw (Dec 12, 2010)

35 and light rain here. Had some sleet mixed in earlier.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 12, 2010)

temperature went up overnight here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Dropped 4 degrees to 42 since the rain started. Gonna be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning.


 
It went to 43 last night when we were battin' this thing back and forth and that's where it sits right now. Give me a few minutes to fire up my weather machine so I can post a pic of what is coming, or not.

Ahhight, got it. Looks like Bitteroot might see a flake or two here real soon.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 12, 2010)

41 and windy in acworth,rain gone


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Here, I can show you temps with this high falootin' radar machine too...


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 12, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here, I can show you temps with this high falootin' radar machine too...



I like that,....but you ain't gonna tell us what the temp.is in each city like the tv weathermen do????


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Jeff Raines said:


> I like that,....but you ain't gonna tell us what the temp.is in each city like the tv weathermen do????


 
I can but it will cost you..


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 12, 2010)

Got a few and i mean few flurries falling here in nashville.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 12, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can but it will cost you..



It's Christmas,I have 2 daughters and a wife,therefore,I have no money.


I'll read the temps


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

Clear, windy, and 49 now. Temp is droppin` here.


Fixin` to set a pot of chili to simmerin`.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 12, 2010)

More flurries now. Wind is howling!


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 12, 2010)

This morning up at the folks in Cleveland, GA.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=589556


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2010)

Temp dropped 4 degrees in the last hour and the North wind is howling...time to put a pan of biscuits in and pour the coffee.  Here's hopin we at least see a little white stuff today...







Even though we know miguel has already made it so that will not happen


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 12, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Temp dropped 4 degrees in the last hour and the North wind is howling...time to put a pan of biscuits in and pour the coffee.  Here's hopin we at least see a little white stuff today...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wife called a few minutes ago,said it was snowing at our house,12 miles west of acworth


----------



## Trigabby (Dec 12, 2010)

Sleeting over here in Villa Rica right now...


----------



## Trigabby (Dec 12, 2010)

Trigabby said:


> Sleeting over here in Villa Rica right now...



I meant snowing..


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2010)

Jeff Raines said:


> Wife called a few minutes ago,said it was snowing at our house,12 miles west of acworth



Yep...see a few flakes on the deck outside


----------



## ditchdoc24 (Dec 12, 2010)

Rain here so far but the temps are dropping. Just lit the fireplace at the wife's request.


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

54 degrees here.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 12, 2010)

32.5 here.


----------



## deerhunter75 (Dec 12, 2010)

*Sleet/Snow flurries*

It is sleeting and snow flurries going on in Hampton.

Deerhunter75


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2010)

Got a little dust on the deck


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

The better stuff will come this afternoon... still wont be much, but it will be white... super fast and white... cause the wind will be at 30+ MPH

Gonna be brutal.


----------



## biggtruxx (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD thursday is not looking so good now is it???? Think we could get some snow then?


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

47, with bad wind gusts. Chili is simmerin`.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 12, 2010)

Man temp is dropping fast! 29.3


----------



## marknga (Dec 12, 2010)

49 and windy in Wonderful Robins.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 12, 2010)

30 in crackworth...good flurys with little showers. Sticking to deck


----------



## Sweetwater (Dec 12, 2010)

Coming down fairly good in Clarkdale/Austell...but the flakes are small.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 12, 2010)

I was up this morning in shorts and t-shirt getting the smoker ready....Now it's miserable!


----------



## DouglasB. (Dec 12, 2010)

Snow flurries now in Sharpsburg folks. Had a mix of sleet n snow on the car after church this mornin. Temp I dunno... but with the windchill I'd say it's darned COLD!


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Good snow shower is about to move into Atlanta just south of Marietta.  Moving dead East.

Bigtrux, been looking at Thursday hard.  Models have varried... waiting to see what the models bring in today.


----------



## ditchdoc24 (Dec 12, 2010)

Snowing here at my house now!


----------



## biggtruxx (Dec 12, 2010)

We had some mix earlier...... hope that doesnt fizzle out before it reaches us here in Walton.


----------



## david w. (Dec 12, 2010)

41 here,but feels like 34.


----------



## slip (Dec 12, 2010)

32 here. was 35 less then a hour ago.


----------



## slip (Dec 12, 2010)

now its snowin.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

Still 46 here, with clouds rollin` in. That wind has some teeth.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 12, 2010)

slip said:


> now its snowin.


 I wanna see it!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Some pretty good flurries here, radar out of Huntsville is filling in good.

Kennesaw and Dalton folks aught to really see some decent sights today.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 12, 2010)

wow...gone from flurries to snow here i Jackson County...back deck is got a nice little dusting....the wind is crazy


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> wow...gone from flurries to snow here i Jackson County...back deck is got a nice little dusting....the wind is crazy



We've seen flurries, but nothing on the radar for here or in Jackson Co, that makes me nervous.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

Mellish says it's moving too quickly and the ground is too warm for any accumulation in metro, but that's what he said in 2009 when we had 9 inches of snow in Athens and no power for 3 days.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 12, 2010)

27.5 with flurries.


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

47 here, 35 minutes above  the Mason-Dixon.


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> Mellish says it's moving too quickly and the ground is too warm for any accumulation in metro, but that's what he said in 2009 when we had 9 inches of snow in Athens and no power for 3 days.



The ground is plenty cold to hold precip.  With the freezing temps we have had the past days, it is plenty cold.  Melish must have forgotten the black ice problems they had about 3-4 days ago.  

The reason it is probably not going to stick so well is because of the wind.  It is not going to allow it to accumulate.

In the mountains this is a different story.  On the S and SE side of the mountains there will not be that much wind and the snow will accumulate.


----------



## ryano (Dec 12, 2010)

my buddy just sent me this one fron McCaysville Ga in Fannin county...........Coming down here in Pickens county but not sticking


----------



## savreds (Dec 12, 2010)

59.5 and sunny in beautiful downtown Sandfly with the wind starting to pick up a little bit ... y'all send some of the white stuff down this way!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

With the latest EURO model out I have to say... the monster storm it is showing for Saturday and Sunday of this upcoming weekend is classic SE snow.  

Of course it has time to change and the GFS is not onto it yet... but whoa Nelly if it was to play out... just wow.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 12, 2010)

Look at radar back in Tupelo...could it be building back further W and south?


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> With the latest EURO model out I have to say... the monster storm it is showing for Saturday and Sunday of this upcoming weekend is classic SE snow.
> 
> Of course it has time to change and the GFS is not onto it yet... but whoa Nelly if it was to play out... just wow.



Can you explain that a little more? I'm very interested. Thanks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

I can honestly say I don't remember ever seeing 4 lows stacked like this;


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> Can you explain that a little more? I'm very interested. Thanks!



Given verbatim, the EURO shows entrenched cold with a LPS moving out of the gulf and spreading deep moisture over Birmingham, ATL, Augusta, Columbia, Charlotte...

Classic Southern Snow like we used to see in the 80's.

given verbatim would be 4-8" depending on location.

Long way to go though... I will preach more on this during the week.


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Fro1911nut said:


> Look at radar back in Tupelo...could it be building back further W and south?



Yes, light snow breaking out back to our NW.  I am paying particular attention up near Nashville.

This could rotate out and not make it down our way... time will tell.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

The pressure gradient lines look like 1.5 lows, not 4.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> Given verbatim, the EURO shows entrenched cold with a LPS moving out of the gulf and spreading deep moisture over Birmingham, ATL, Augusta, Columbia, Charlotte...
> 
> Classic Southern Snow like we used to see in the 80's.
> 
> ...



S o I need to go ahead and get my chainsaw fixed tomorrow?


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

43 now, and fallin`, windy, and cloudy.


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> The pressure gradient lines look like 1.5 lows, not 4.



HUH?


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> HUH?



Miguel's post at 2:47


----------



## marknga (Dec 12, 2010)

37 in Byron and a cold cold wind.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg (Dec 12, 2010)

Starting to snow in Thomson


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> Miguel's post at 2:47



Sorry, but I see 2 warm fronts and 2 cold fronts??  

Not really sure what you see?


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

Nicodemus said:


> 43 now, and fallin`, windy, and cloudy.



Catching up to you Nic. 44 here and raining!


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> Mellish says it's moving too quickly and the ground is too warm for any accumulation in metro, but that's what he said in 2009 when we had 9 inches of snow in Athens and no power for 3 days.



Mellish is an idiot if he said the ground is too warm...after these 2 weeks we basically got permafrost here....


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> Sorry, but I see 2 warm fronts and 2 cold fronts??
> 
> Not really sure what you see?



I see two cold fronts, and 1 LPS to the north, and a secondary LPS to the south. I don't see 4 L's based on the gradient lines.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Wednesday night could be a mess, this is shaping up to be an ice event. I'd say you need to get that chainsaw fixed pronto quicko..


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 12, 2010)

Short term /tonight through tuesday night/...
Snow showers across north georgia this afternoon are resulting from
upper level low pressure over the ohio river valley and the arctic
airmass nosing into the region. High temperatures occurred early
today as frontal passage and caa into the area have resulted in
falling temperatures through afternoon. With below freezing
temperatures and wrap around moisture remaining across north georgia
as the upper trough exits the region...snow accumulation is possible
through early monday. Chance to slight chance snow showers across
north georgia through 12z monday will taper off to chance in the
mountains and slight chance in extreme north georgia monday
morning...with activity confined to the mountains by afternoon.
Overall...snow accumulation should be limited to the overnight and
early morning hours...with 1 inch possible and localized 2 inches in
the advisory area. Little to no accumulations are expected
elsewhere. With tight pressure gradient over the state...wind
advisory remains in effect through monday afternoon for strong
northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph.

Cold and dry conditions will remain in place through tuesday as
elongated surface high builds into the region.

With blast of cold air impacting the state through the short
term...there are several opportunities to break temperature records.
Current records listed below. Lows are expected to drop into the
upper teens and low 20s by monday morning...with highs only expected
to reach the upper 20s and 30s. Chillier conditions expected tuesday
morning and have gone a few degrees cooler than lowest guidance as
caa continues. Will have to watch wind chill values...especially in
the mountains...for advisory criteria if values approach zero.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY EARLY THURSDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING SURFACE
LOW THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION...PULLING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND TRACKING THE LOW OVER INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELED THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AMPLE CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THINGS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...SO
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO JUST SEE RAIN. FOR NOW...WENT AHEAD AND
MENTIONED IT AS THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD GET
WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO
RAIN AFTER 12Z. SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK...AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 12, 2010)

Has slacked off some, but it sure is nice to look at


----------



## TurkeyKiller12 (Dec 12, 2010)

*Freezing rain...*

I've seen where most of the weather outlets are calling for frezzing rain for wed. and wed. night here in Tallapoosa. Both times were less than 50% chances though. Haven't never seen a bad ice storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Fro1911nut said:


> NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD GET
> WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO
> RAIN AFTER 12Z. .


 
This is the part that always worries me when they make these kind of forecast. Cloud cover reflects ground heat, when the ground is warm. It also has the refrigerator effect when frozen precip is on the ground, trees and powerlines and works against us, and their forecast when this happens.


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

CanyonHunter said:


> I've seen where most of the weather outlets are calling for frezzing rain for wed. and wed. night here in Tallapoosa. Both times were less than 50% chances though. Haven't never seen a bad ice storm.



You don't want to, trust me.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 12, 2010)

CanyonHunter said:


> I've seen where most of the weather outlets are calling for frezzing rain for wed. and wed. night here in Tallapoosa. Both times were less than 50% chances though. Haven't never seen a bad ice storm.



I can do without the ice. The last major ice storm we had which was about 11 yrs ago we were with out power for two weeks.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

CanyonHunter said:


> I've seen where most of the weather outlets are calling for frezzing rain for wed. and wed. night here in Tallapoosa. Both times were less than 50% chances though. Haven't never seen a bad ice storm.


 
You must be a youngun or not from around here then. Back in the 70's we have a sho'nuff' humm dinger of a destructive ice storm.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

Resica said:


> You don't want to, trust me.





I second that, big time.


41 and still fallin`, and the wind is still rough. Overcast too.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 12, 2010)

Looking good up here in woodstock right now! Not gonna be anything spectacular bu its nice to see the white stuff pouring down right now!


----------



## TurkeyKiller12 (Dec 12, 2010)

*young un!*

I guess I qualify as a young un. I was born in 84. I've always heard of a bad ice storm in the 1960's or maybe 1970's. Ive heard my parents talk about it. With the exception of the blizzard in 93, winter weather has been kinda non existent in west ga most of my life that I can remember. Maybe an inch or so of snow every 3 years but thats about it .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

CanyonHunter said:


> I guess I qualify as a young un. I was born in 84. I've always heard of a bad ice storm in the 1960's or maybe 1970's. Ive heard my parents talk about it. With the exception of the blizzard in 93, winter weather has been kinda non existent in west ga most of my life that I can remember. Maybe an inch or so of snow every 3 years but thats about it .


 
In '62 we had nearly a foot of snow in Birmingham. I know that because my dad has pictures of me @ 4 years old out in it. Now that was a snow.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

Miguel, can you post the Fri and Sat links to that model?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> Miguel, can you post the Fri and Sat links to that model?


 They aren't impressive,,,,,,,yet.. They keep everything up in Tennessee and W. NC. By about Tuesday I expect this current forecast will be nothing but rain, or it will be really nasty in the other direction. No in betweens this time of year.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

But your links seem to update automatically, so post them anyway as a reference.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> But your links seem to update automatically, so post them anyway as a reference.


 
Give me a little bit and I'll try and do one better.


----------



## Fletch_W (Dec 12, 2010)

tick  tock


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 12, 2010)

38 and droppin`. Everlastin` wind is still cuttin` up.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 12, 2010)

25.5 here with a windchill of 11....  brrrrrrrr....


----------



## slip (Dec 12, 2010)

28 here, heavy winds.


the roads are still real wet, lots of puddles too....some folks are going to end up hurt when it all turns to ice tonight.


----------



## Turkeypaw (Dec 12, 2010)

Its 31 with a wind chill of 18. Got wind speeds around 20 MPH with gusts as high as 35.


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 12, 2010)

Been snowing here all day! Nothing sticking just an all day snow shower.Pretty nice.


----------



## Resica (Dec 12, 2010)

43  here.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 12, 2010)

23.2 and light snow.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 12, 2010)

Just got back from Nashville!  It snowed on us all day until we got to the McDonough area.  Most of it was flurries but areas like Dalton and Acworth were getting it good.

Best I saw was in Tenn around Monteagle/Sewannee??  They were covered!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Fletch_W said:


> tick tock


 
OK, I'll post a couple up for you, but the problem is, they are good for that day and that day only. Once it has passed they are extinct. Dang, I've already got a wife, now I'm being henpecked by keyboarders....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 12, 2010)

Wednesday night / Thursday morning






Friday GFS Model





Saturday GFS model


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

18Z GFS and the 00Z NAM are both showing a colder more southerly solutions for Wednesday.  This is signifigant because it is only 72 hours out and the NAM has moved more towards a GFS solution.

There is PLENTY of moisture for this solution to work with and with the temps being as cold as they are going to be for the next 48+ hours... there will be no doubt about the moisture sticking.


----------



## DDD (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> Hey kids, make sure you got plenty of warm gear for Thanksgiving and the days following.
> 
> EURO still preaching cold to come.
> 
> I am going to make a bold prediction... I am going to say we get snow in December.   You heard it here first.



Do I get more street credit for this?


----------



## threeleggedpigmy (Dec 12, 2010)

DDD said:


> Do I get more street credit for this?


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 13, 2010)

DDD said:


> Do I get more street credit for this?



 Yep, even though I aint happy one bit about it, you are DE MAN!!!!!







Now................ when will spring be here?


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 13, 2010)

DDD said:


> Do I get more street credit for this?


When you or the Spaniard Speak.....I listen!!


----------



## Sweetwater (Dec 13, 2010)

CanyonHunter said:


> I guess I qualify as a young un. I was born in 84. I've always heard of a bad ice storm in the 1960's or maybe 1970's. Ive heard my parents talk about it. With the exception of the blizzard in 93, winter weather has been kinda non existent in west ga most of my life that I can remember. Maybe an inch or so of snow every 3 years but thats about it .



We had a bad ice storm in 72....and then there was snowjam 82...


----------



## Sweetwater (Dec 13, 2010)

DDD said:


> Do I get more street credit for this?



Appreciate your hard work.


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 13, 2010)

Sweetwater said:


> Appreciate your hard work.



As do I, no joke!


----------



## crokseti (Dec 13, 2010)

16 degrees and still snowin.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 13, 2010)

So now the GFS and Euro have flipped on what they are showing this weekend??


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2010)

So let's talk about Wednesday night and Saturday - Sunday of this week.

Wednesday is becoming more and more dicy looking.  The temperature is going to be right near freezing with some moisture coming in.  Not a ton of moisture, but enough.  

The GFS starts it out as a snow/sleet/ freezing rain mixture and then turn it over to all rain.  Given at face value, that would be great.  The problem comes with wet bulb temps and dewpoints and this little thing called evaporational cooling.  If the snow/sleet comes in and cools the lower layer of the atmosphere and the warm air over runs it, it essentially will trap the cold air at the surface.  So that when the rain falls into that air, it will not only keep the air cold, it will create a nice coating of ice.

This is just a possibility that will have to be watched as the hours and models roll off.


The weekend storm is MUCH more interesting.  The GFS and the EURO are both onto the storm but with different solutions.  The GFS paints a nice SE snow storm, while the latest EURO has changed a bit and squashes the storm into a small "event".  The run of the EURO 12 hours before showed a nice SE snow storm.

So the bottom line is we have a few things to watch in the coming days!


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> So now the GFS and Euro have flipped on what they are showing this weekend??



Yep.  Typical model flip flop.  Good thing is it's 5 days out.  They have plenty of time to agree.  

You see the long range for Christmas?


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 13, 2010)

DDD said:


> Yep.  Typical model flip flop.  Good thing is it's 5 days out.  They have plenty of time to agree.
> 
> You see the long range for Christmas?



Definitely looking a lot better than it was last week


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 13, 2010)

Wish I was on top of Beech mountain about now


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 13, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Wish I was on top of Beech mountain about now in a cabin with my girl, a big fire and some good bourbon



there, fixed it fer ya.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 13, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> there, fixed it fer ya.



Exactly


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 13, 2010)

High pressure builds into the region through early wednesday...with
temperatures warming slightly through the remainder of the short
term. Guidance a little better with depicting low temperatures...and
tended to lean towards the met...as it seems to be out performing
other guidance the last few days. For highs...guidance seems a
little more in line...so did not differ to significantly from
consensus.

Next system approaches the region wednesday morning...so have
continued with chance pops in the northwest...with slight chance
spreading south and east. With temperatures expected to stay in the
30s or below across much of north georgia wednesday...and modeled
thickness values in support of an icy mixture...could see some
rain...freezing rain...sleet mixtures early wednesday and again
wednesday night and into thursday. No accumulations are expected at
this time.


.long term /thursday through monday/...
Overall...timing and intensity issues still exist in the long term.
Models seem to be in better agreement about progression of next
system as an upper level low drops out of the northern plains and
strengthens over the great lakes region by late week...ushering the
high pressure ridge off the east coast. Surface low develops over
the arklatex region early thursday...and moves into the tennessee
valley by thursday afternoon. As this system approaches the
southeast...ample gulf moisture is spread across georgia...hence the
pops wednesday. Other than the possibility of a freezing rain
mixture thursday morning...temperatures are generally expected to
remain above freezing thursday late morning and into the weekend as
warm southerly flow dominates...so precipitation should be of the rain
variety during this time.

Rain remains in the forecast through mid weekend as upper low drags
cold frontal boundary through the region. High pressure is expected
to move in behind the boundary early sunday. Near seasonal
temperatures are expected through sunday morning...with slightly
cooler than normal temperatures sunday afternoon and monday.


----------



## DDD (Dec 13, 2010)

Pattern looks good for the weekend event.

Now we have to worry about surface temperatures.  Way too early to even try to figure those out 5 days out.   We need gold temps to keep coming our way.  I think the moisture is going to be here.


----------



## SnowHunter (Dec 13, 2010)

I just want this dang wind to stop


----------



## Sugar Plum (Dec 13, 2010)

SnowHunter said:


> I just want this dang wind to stop



Me too!!!!!!


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 13, 2010)

CortGirl said:


> Me too!!!!!!



Mee 3!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 13, 2010)

DDD said:


> Pattern looks good for the weekend event.
> 
> Now we have to worry about surface temperatures. Way too early to even try to figure those out 5 days out. We need gold temps to keep coming our way. I think the moisture is going to be here.


 
Did you see how the Wednesday night forecast got heavier in the icing catagory?


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 13, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Did you see how the Wednesday night forecast got heavier in the icing catagory?



IT was all over the radio on my way home today...I can deal with the snow..I do not like the ice


----------



## cardfan (Dec 14, 2010)

Guys, I'm currently up in Buffalo for work....watching the morning news before my meetings...these lake effect bands ain't no joke...we got about 7 inches over night and they say we could end up with a foot or so....I'm due back wednesday night, so crossing my fingers for no ice in Atlanta....

When/IF the sun comes up, I'll take some pictures on my breaks today and post....oh, and it's about 7 degrees outside...I hear it's not much better at home...

Stay warm and safe all...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 14, 2010)

Fro1911nut said:


> IT was all over the radio on my way home today...I can deal with the snow..I do not like the ice


 
The models are backing off of the wintery stuff pretty hard for both Wednesday and Saturday. In the world of Murphy's Law, this makes me verrrrry nervous.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 14, 2010)

Any updates DDD?


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 14, 2010)

Just rain now.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 14, 2010)

Nothing else???


----------



## DDD (Dec 14, 2010)

Tomorrow night is still up in the air, because quite frankly, the set up is unusual and the models are having a hard time diagnosing a solution.  Models pull from current data and years of similar analogs.  Very simply, it doesn't have a lot to work off of, so the GFS, NAM, UKMET, EURO all have 4 different solutions.  Personally, I am going to be watching the amount of moisture, dewpoints and wetbulbs.    The surface temps tonight are going to be hard to overcome and I am not sure the models are accounting for this... but I could be wrong.


The EURO just came out and for the weekend storm all the players are on the field, now if we can just get them all to play together.  The set up is very close to being an 80's type storm for Saturday and Sunday.  It is ooohhhhh so close.  Today is Tuesday.  Lots of time to come in and quite frankly it would scare me if it was saying today that we were going to get pounded.  Right now it is a close call and I like that.

The trend is our friend.


----------



## DDD (Dec 14, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> Nothing else???



Ya'll do know I have a job that pays right?


----------



## jsullivan03 (Dec 14, 2010)

DDD said:


> The EURO just came out and for the weekend storm all the players are on the field, now if we can just get them all to play together.  The set up is very close to being an 80's type storm for Saturday and Sunday.  It is ooohhhhh so close.  Today is Tuesday.  Lots of time to come in and quite frankly it would scare me if it was saying today that we were going to get pounded.  Right now it is a close call and I like that.
> 
> The trend is our friend.



You got my attention now.  I'm headed to the NE Ga mountains on Friday for the weekend.  Mebbe I'll get to see a good dose of snow up there.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 14, 2010)

Thanks for the update DDD... Keep us posted


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 14, 2010)

DDD said:


> Ya'll do know I have a job that pays right?



And all this time, I thought wannabe mods got paid around here.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Dec 14, 2010)

Why in the world do ya'll want this stuff? It was 7* here this morning with 25mph wind, nearly a foot of snow, and forty miles of snow and black ice to drive over to get to work. I'm already sick of it this year. I'm about ready to move to south Georgia to get away from it.


----------



## higgy (Dec 14, 2010)

DDD keep the updates coming when you can. Thanks


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 14, 2010)

Wintry stuff cancelled for Gainesville.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 14, 2010)

DDD said:


> Ya'll do know I have a job that pays right?


 
And???



NCHillbilly said:


> Why in the world do ya'll want this stuff? It was 7* here this morning with 25mph wind, nearly a foot of snow, and forty miles of snow and black ice to drive over to get to work. I'm already sick of it this year. I'm about ready to move to south Georgia to get away from it.


 
Then you'd be whining about the lack of work and gnats n skeeters.....


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 14, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> And???
> 
> 
> 
> Then you'd be whining about the lack of work and gnats n skeeters.....



I'd rather shovel snow than swat gnats.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 14, 2010)

Bitteroot said:


> I'd rather shovel snow than swat gnats.....


 
Based on my brief time in Satan's armpit you don't really swat them, you keep your mouth closed and try to inhale as few as possible through your nose. The eyes and ears are just something you just have to learn to live with.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 14, 2010)

From Next door in Huntsville...guess its colder over there/?

THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING
WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID
TO LONG TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS
HIGH PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM GREENLAND TO OVER NORTHERN CANADA
LATER THIS WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST A MORE ZONAL 500MB FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS...THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
LOW IS QUITE VARIED. THIS WILL IMPACT THE PROGRESS OF ANY SHORTWAVES
THAT COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS
ISSUANCE...GENERALLY WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL COMPROMISE /ONLY
SLIGHTLY WEIGHTED ON THE GFS/ UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.
ONLY REAL DIVERGENCE FROM GUIDANCE WAS NUDGING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SINCE THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY NOT HANDLING THE
ANOMALOUS NW FLOW VERY WELL.

NOW TO TALK ABOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....
THE PAST TWO RUNS HAVE INDICATED A SLOW DOWN OF THE ARRIVAL OF WINTRY
PRECIP FOR THE CWA. WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT AN EARLY MORNING AND DAYTIME EVENT...TIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA
NOW LOOKS LIKE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PART OF THIS
IS DUE TO MODELS HOLDING ON TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE
LONGER...WHICH MAY BE A MODEL BIAS. STILL BELIEVE THAT SOME
SNOW/SLEET MIX COULD START IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT TRENDED
TOWARD THIS DRIER SOLUTION. THE SWITCH TO FRZG RAIN WILL START FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE WARM NOSE STARTS TO EAT AWAY AT THE FRIGID
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +3C BY 18Z
IN THE WEST AND CLOSER TO 21Z IN THE EAST...INDICATING A COMPLETE
CHANGEOVER TO FRZG RAIN. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DOES NOT LOOK TO
ARRIVE UNTIL 6 TO 9PM ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE WET BULB TEMPS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
THE LAST ISSUES FOR FREEZING RAIN COULD BE IN THOSE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED IN SOME OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
EVERYTHING SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH. WITH THE STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND EVEN ROAD SURFACES ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING...THE MAJORITY OF THE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STICK AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE NEXT CONCERN COULD BE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AS THIS LOW KICKS ACROSS GEORGIA.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS BULLISH IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW SO HAVE DOWNPLAYED
THE GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE FOR NOW. IF THE GFS PLAYS OUT THOUGH...COLD
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW COULD CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ICE LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WARMER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVEL


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

Wake up forecasters! We need some updates


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> Wake up forecasters! We need some updates


 
It looks like it did 3 days ago before they started changing it all over the place.


----------



## Robbie101 (Dec 15, 2010)

But is it gonna be cold enough for it to stick around long.... All three weathers I have on my Iphone all say its gonna get warmer....


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

It does look to get warmer... but I my caution is up because the amount of rain that is on the radar right now was not shown by any modeling system.  If this rain is heavier than just drizzle, it could be a mess.


Mississippi is reporting numerous highways with a glaze on them and they are starting to shut down roads.  It is 26° in Dacula with a Dewpoint of 10°

Here is what the Canadian thinks is on the way.  As I say... there is more on radar than is on the modeling.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

around 5PM tonight.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Robbie101 said:


> But is it gonna be cold enough for it to stick around long.... All three weathers I have on my Iphone all say its gonna get warmer....



They're talking about mainly north of a line from Cedartown to Gainesville.  Best chance of frozen stuff is before midnight it seems.  The NWS did post a hazardous weather outlook, and just reading the discussion and this, it seems like they're not quite sure what is going to happen.  Just based on what it looks like now, 



> .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
> A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER
> PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
> 
> ...



The Canadian looks like it has a little weggie setting up in to tomorrow morning so folks in NE GA may have a messy ride to work tomorrow morning.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

BMX has extended their advisory south and I would not be suprised if Atlanta did the same.

Here are some road reports out of Alabama:

*Many accidents now being reported due to icy bridges over Bibb County

*Dallas County is reporting many ice covered bridges… this is deep into Central Alabama (the Selma area)

*In Marion County, roads and bridges county wide covered with a light glaze of ice and numerous accidents.

*Wreck on Warrior River Road, overturned in a ditch (western part of Jefferson County)

*Emergency Mngr in Vernon: Most bridges in Lamar County are covered with a light glaze of ice.

*Bridges are getting iced over in Fayette county, couple of wrecks reported due to ice

*A number of wrecks reported on Alabama 216 east of Tuscaloosa (Brookwood area


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> It does look to get warmer... but I my caution is up because the amount of rain that is on the radar right now was not shown by any modeling system.  If this rain is heavier than just drizzle, it could be a mess.
> 
> 
> Mississippi is reporting numerous highways with a glaze on them and they are starting to shut down roads.  It is 26° in Dacula with a Dewpoint of 10°
> ...



Not only that...but the precip looks waaaay further south than the models were showing.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Not only that...but the precip looks waaaay further south than the models were showing.



Yep... this may surprise ATL in a very bad way.  

I said yesterday the models were having a hard time with the lack of analogs.  Oh boy.


----------



## YOGIGATOR (Dec 15, 2010)

When do you think it will hit Atlanta?


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Oh boy.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

YOGIGATOR said:


> When do you think it will hit Atlanta?



I would think noon or 1 PM.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

Ugh! I am in Gainesville working till 6PM


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Just out from the FFC...

Alert: 
...A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
FREEZING WHEN THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
VERY THIN ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHICH MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER ANY FROZEN OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

ATL is still down playing this and it may bite them.. but what else is new?


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> ATL is still down playing this and it may bite them.. but what else is new?



I'm surprised Mellish isn't talking again about how warm the ground is after about 2.5 days below freezing


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

Fingers crossed for no work tomorrow! Got court


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I'm surprised Mellish isn't talking again about how warm the ground is after about 2.5 days below freezing



Mellish is da man!


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I'm surprised Mellish isn't talking again about how warm the ground is after about 2.5 days below freezing



If it gets bad I look for Glenn Burns to fire up his radar imaging and look for rotation!


----------



## Jranger (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> If it gets bad I look for Glenn Burns to fire up his radar imaging and look for rotation!



What's with the purple nose anyway?


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Greenville - Spartanburg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1002 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --CONCERN IS INCREASING REGARDING EXPECTED QPF ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM IS STILL RATHER
SPARSE EAST OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER...THE 09Z SREF MEAN QPF VALUES
HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER. STILL PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
HAZARD ISSUANCE PENDING FULL REVIEW OF INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 15, 2010)

It just clouded up here purty good.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

> //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
> HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT MEDIUM ON PRECIP TYPE AND ONSET


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Reports of Sleet in Columbus.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

ATL NWS is coming around to the thinking... I am off on the timing though... looks like it will be late this afternoon / evening.

If they upgrade to a winterwx advisory, I would be concerned if I had to drive after sunset.



> New AFD from FFC
> UPDATE...
> CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF SLEET OR
> FREEZING RAIN OVER AL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AT
> ...


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 15, 2010)

Weather channel says it will start around 3pm in Atlanta.


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 15, 2010)

This will be a far t in the wind for the ATL metro area.  Mark my words.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 15, 2010)

Just cloudy here.It just going to be rain here.Its to warm for anything else.


----------



## krisjack (Dec 15, 2010)

Just started to sleet/rain here.


----------



## slip (Dec 15, 2010)

36 here...to warm to do anything.


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 15, 2010)

The forecast for metro atl is now all rain.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

deermeat270 said:


> The forecast for metro atl is now all rain.



Better let the nws know that so they can update their site. 

This Afternoon: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Tonight: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 15, 2010)

28 up here on the mountain with 2-3 inches of snow still on the ground.  Could get kinda sloppy this evening. . .


----------



## krisjack (Dec 15, 2010)

40 degrees here.The sleet was short lived.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Wade Chandler said:


> 28 up here on the mountain with 2-3 inches of snow still on the ground.  Could get kinda sloppy this evening. . .



And how...hope you got your crampons ready


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

It will be a rain event,,,,,,,,eventually, but for the present, and until the warmer air moves in, it's gonna be white.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

krisjack said:


> Just started to sleet/rain here.



Leesburg will be just rain.  You can mark my words.


----------



## spotman (Dec 15, 2010)

Some snowflakes flying in Newnan!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)




----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 15, 2010)

Stop itttttt!!!!!


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 15, 2010)

spotman said:


> Some snowflakes flying in Newnan!



Yep. I was just about to report that myself. Nice!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Dade-walker-catoosa-whitfield-murray-fannin-gilmer-union-towns-
chattooga-gordon-pickens-dawson-lumpkin-white-floyd-bartow-
cherokee-polk-
including the cities of...calhoun...dahlonega...cleveland...
Rome...cartersville
114 pm est wed dec 15 2010

...winter weather advisory in effect until 7 am est thursday for
parts of north georgia...

The national weather service in peachtree city has issued a
winter weather advisory for areas generally along and north of a
cedartown to canton to cleveland line...from this afternoon
through 7 am est thursday.

Abundant moisture in the mid levels will overrun freezing
temperatures near the surface to bring a threat of freezing rain
or sleet to parts of north georgia this afternoon and overnight.
This wintry threat is mainly along and north of a cedartown to
canton to cleveland line where the colder surface temperatures are
expected to be more favorable for light accumulations. Patchy ice
accumulations on bridges... Overpasses and other elevated surfaces
are possible... Which could result in hazardous driving conditions
across the advised area...mainly from mid afternoon through the
overnight hours.

A gradual warm-up from the southwest is expected during the night...which
should bring an end to the wintry threat by sometime early thursday
morning as the precipitation changes over to all rain.


----------



## david w. (Dec 15, 2010)

Yelp,We are in georgia!When there's word of a flake,The town goes crazy.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

david w. said:


> Yelp,We are in georgia!When there's word of a flake,The town goes crazy.



well i have 200lbs of meat in the freezer, a 90 gallon trash can full of charcoal, a cord of wood and a few bottles of bourbon.  Bring it on.... 

unfortunately i will probably wake up to a nice cool rain with a sliver of ice here or there and nothing more in Woodstock.  so off to work i shall go.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> well i have 200lbs of meat in the freezer, a 90 gallon trash can full of charcoal, a cord of wood and a few bottles of bourbon. Bring it on....
> 
> unfortunately i will probably wake up to a nice cool rain with a sliver of ice here or there and nothing more in Woodstock. so off to work i shall go.


 
You want me to babysit all of that stuff while you're at work??


----------



## david w. (Dec 15, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> well i have 200lbs of meat in the freezer, a 90 gallon trash can full of charcoal, a cord of wood and a few bottles of bourbon.  Bring it on....
> 
> unfortunately i will probably wake up to a nice cool rain with a sliver of ice here or there and nothing more in Woodstock.  so off to work i shall go.



At least one of us will survive.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Flurries here in Kennesaw.


----------



## deerhunter75 (Dec 15, 2010)

*snow*

Snowing in Hampton.   35 and dewpoint is 32.

Deerhunter75


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 15, 2010)

Rain


----------



## WickedKwik (Dec 15, 2010)

flurries here in Atlanta..


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Alabama has major road issues.

http://www.abc3340.com/Global/story.asp?S=13677586


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Good snow shower in Kennesaw right now.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

Dark and dreary in Gainesville


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 15, 2010)

Looks like the next round for Atlanta is around 4:15pm.  If this thing creates any ice, it's going to be a huge mess out there.  Atlanta drivers can't even handle a good rain during rush hour.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> Good snow shower in Kennesaw right now.



Pitchers man...pitchers!!


----------



## slip (Dec 15, 2010)

light snow turned to sleet back to rain...

went from 37 to 34 though.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Pitchers man...pitchers!!


We gonna have to change your name to Oxbeer?? or Beerox??
Beer comes in Pitchers...................


----------



## Keebs (Dec 15, 2010)

slip said:


> light snow turned to sleet back to rain...
> 
> went from 37 to 34 though.


you have my cell # to send *you know what*...............


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Keebs said:


> We gonna have to change your name to Oxbeer?? or Beerox??
> Beer comes in Pitchers...................



I guess that's what they call a freudian slip


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 15, 2010)

Noticed WU has changed forecast for Dawson County tonight to all snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain. This has happened within last couple of hours.


----------



## YOGIGATOR (Dec 15, 2010)

Did you tip of the weather channel? They are starting to see things your way..lol


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 15, 2010)

A few flakes are coming down in Dekalb...I-20 @ I-285.


----------



## marknga (Dec 15, 2010)

42 degrees in Byron, had some light snow flurries about 35 minutes ago.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 15, 2010)

Hey Wade! Glad to see your still alive on top of the mountain!!!

Few, and I mean a few flakes are falling here in Dawson County.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 15, 2010)

Hey CC77, yeah I'm still hanging out up here!  You still need to come hike the 5 miles for a visit!
Weather update:  27 and just a tiny bit of freezing drizzle.  Looks like most of it is to the south for now.  I wouldn't mind missing out on ice. . .


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 15, 2010)

Right. I'll pass on the hike but it's good to know your still alive.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I guess that's what they call a freudian slip


----------



## slip (Dec 15, 2010)

stuck around 32/33 here. light rain.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

radar is not impressive at all... maybe we will see more precip.  If we had more precip we would have one heck of an ice storm.


----------



## J HESTER (Dec 15, 2010)

32 here with a light dusting of snow.


----------



## Sugar Plum (Dec 15, 2010)

Haven't checked the actual temp in a while, but I keep seeing rogue snowflakes every now and again...hope we don't have an ice storm, my other half is working in the field today and supposed to be driving back from Savannah tonight...


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

My buddy just called and said they're stopping traffic on parts of 400 b/c of ice on the rd???   He's been drinking a bit though so I'm not sure if he's entirely accurate...


----------



## Sultan of Slime (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> My buddy just called and said they're stopping traffic on parts of 400 b/c of ice on the rd???   He's been drinking a bit though so I'm not sure if he's entirely accurate...



What are you talking about I havent called you all day?


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)




----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 15, 2010)

Just got home from Cherokee County. Bells Ferry North of the Lake is a mess. Black ice everywere. Passed a few were folks were in the ditch. They had closed univerter rd and said parts of 575 and 6's Road were icy. One of my other techs called and said bridges in W Cobb were dicey


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 15, 2010)

Dang, and to think..I got a coon hunt to go to tonight..Aint to bad here I dont recken..Guess I'll drive the old truck just in case!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 15, 2010)

They have drooped the line to Atlanta

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING...

.ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE TO BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET TO MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WINTRY THREAT IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING PROCESSES WILL HELP HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PATCHY
ICE ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES ARE THE
MAIN THREAT... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ADVISED AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GAZ022>025-031>035-041>045-160630-
/O.EXA.KFFC.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-101216T1200Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
529 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH 7 AM EST
THURSDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE TO BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET TO MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WINTRY THREAT IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING PROCESSES WILL HELP HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PATCHY
ICE ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES ARE THE
MAIN THREAT... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ADVISED AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY THREAT BY
SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


----------



## huntinglady74 (Dec 15, 2010)

Well it has been sleeting rain here off and on all day but it hasn't showed up on the radar's that i've seen...


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

people in ditches, flipped cars, ice everywhere, wrecks everywhere.  was real fun driving in Cherokee county today.  Thank goodness im home now.


----------



## slip (Dec 15, 2010)

no ice here, heck...no rain even.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

ice glazining the car and leaves on bushes here...heard from my buddy in Kennesaw that it took him nearly 30 min. to drive 5 miles home.


----------



## kgo (Dec 15, 2010)

Got a buddy from work stuck on east cherokee in a propane truck said it was a sheet of ice and people were walking home and leaving there cars.


----------



## pbradley (Dec 15, 2010)

thank goodness I'm here in Kentucky.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 15, 2010)

Bad ice in parts of Carroll also.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

kgo said:


> Got a buddy from work stuck on east cherokee in a propane truck said it was a sheet of ice and people were walking home and leaving there cars.



I live on east cherokee and its bumper to bumper out there.


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 15, 2010)

stuck at work..... had to get a service truck off the mountain... now I'm waiting for the boss to come get me and take me back to my truck...Hope he's buying the beer..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

Lots of folks trying to get to Cherokee county that can't. Several of our members might not see home tonight. Don't you just love it when the GaDOT doesn't prepare for stuff like this? Or perhaps they should stop listening to the NWS and start reading DDD's thread for winter weather forecast...


----------



## cardfan (Dec 15, 2010)

Can't get out of buffalo NY.... They're saying Atlanta is socked in...what's the deal boys?


----------



## jsullivan03 (Dec 15, 2010)

2.5 hours to go 15 miles.    They had the road shut down that I live on by the time got to it.  Thought I was gonna have to park and walk a mile home but I snuck my way around the road blocks.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

its gonna be a mess...28 here...was 34 2 hours ago...


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

I'm glad there wasn't ice all over the place and my truck isn't stuck on the side of the road...mark my words!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I'm glad there wasn't ice all over the place and my truck isn't stuck on the side of the road...mark my words!





jackleg, you are the weather guru, knew this was coming,  and you still stayed at work til 5!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> jackleg, you are the weather guru, knew this was coming,  and you still stayed at work til 5!



Even better...stayed till 5:40


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> I'm glad there wasn't ice all over the place and my truck isn't stuck on the side of the road...mark my words!


 
Living out in the country does have it's advantages.... I don't miss that traffic one little bit. Stupid drivers + Stupid weather + ill prepared DOT = disaster. 

What about all of the folks that left home this morning, no blanket in the car, no other means of staying warm but the car's heater, and did so on 1/4 tank of gas or less. Just how long will they last stranded on the parking lot of an iced over freeway at 28 degrees or less?


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

It is bad ya'll.  

Met the outlaws for dinner tonight and they called from Mineral Springs in Dacula and said it was a sheet of ice.  We slid a little coming into our subdivision.

Temp is not going to come up until the sun starts up about 7 AM.

I had a bad feeling today when Birmingham was socked in.

It has been too cold and the dewpoints were just too low.


----------



## shakey gizzard (Dec 15, 2010)

32 degs and starting to ice on the rds here in Cumming!


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 15, 2010)

Just got home in N. Heard county and I had to make two runs at getting in my driveway.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Paymaster said:


> Just got home in N. Heard county and I had to make two runs at getting in my driveway.



At least ya made it safe


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lots of folks trying to get to Cherokee county that can't. Several of our members might not see home tonight. Don't you just love it when the GaDOT doesn't prepare for stuff like this? Or perhaps they should stop listening to the NWS and start reading DDD's thread for winter weather forecast...



It is not rocket science... these "METS" need to start paying attention to the roots of weather rather than just their Viper radar and super smart radar.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD your forecast was sham wow... What is it looking like for the weekend?


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> It is not rocket science... these "METS" need to start paying attention to the roots of weather rather than just their Viper radar and super smart radar.



Yeah...but then how would they see the rotation??


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> It is not rocket science... these "METS" need to start paying attention to the roots of weather rather than just their Viper radar and super smart radar.


 
They are part of the media now, not investigative reporting seeking out the actual facts. It's all about ratings and entertainment. Too bad they can't be held accountable for their lack of proper execution of their duties.

This will be just like any other year, and any other weather. They get caught with their pants down on the first one, then they'll be screaming wolf for every other event possibility the rest of the season.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are part of the media now, not investigative reporting seeking out the actual facts. It's all about ratings and entertainment. Too bad they can't be held accountable for their lack of proper execution of their duties.



What I love is how certain mets in Atl are saying things now like "just like I said was going to happen earlier today"  what a crock.


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 15, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are part of the media now, not investigative reporting seeking out the actual facts. It's all about ratings and entertainment. Too bad they can't be held accountable for their lack of proper execution of their duties.
> 
> This will be just like any other year, and any other weather. They get caught with their pants down on the first one, then they'll be screaming wolf for every other event possibility the rest of the season.



One of the few professions that you can be right 30-40% of the time and still get a pay raise


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 15, 2010)

From WSB
8:05 p.m.: GDOT is reporting a 75-vehicle pileup on I-285 east between Chamblee-Tucker Road and I-85 south. All lanes are blocked until 8:25 p.m.


----------



## slip (Dec 15, 2010)

everything is wet here, and its 32...but no ice, not even on the car.

hope it keeps that way


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

No way I'd wanna be 120 ft. up on the 285 to 85 N bridge right now..

The freezing line has been right on the edge of Walton county. It is now down into Henry and Clayton, I expect this next wave of precip to slick things over here at home.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 15, 2010)

Hwy 53 out of dawsonville towards jasper is awful. Drove five miles an hour and for those familiar with Lathem Reservoir, Cowart Rd is very bad


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

OFH is stuck on I-75.  She's been there for 2 hours.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 15, 2010)

Just walked to my car here in Jackson County....332 between Hoschton and Pendergrass....I just walked to my truck to get my duty bag and I think I broke my butt bone....sidewalk is a rink!


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 15, 2010)

Temp is going up up here on the mountain.  We got down to 25 at 5 pm but now we're up to 31.  My call is that the warm air is coming in and will make it down to the surface before morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> OFH is stuck on I-75. She's been there for 2 hours.


 
She's been there longer than that. She just said they are beginning to open the roads back up and let people through. Hopefully they sanded them down good.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 15, 2010)

Ya`ll be careful up that way.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 15, 2010)

Wade Chandler said:


> Temp is going up up here on the mountain.  We got down to 25 at 5 pm but now we're up to 31.  My call is that the warm air is coming in and will make it down to the surface before morning.



We are up to 31 from 28 only an hour ago...hopefully it will get above freezing soon


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

Hickory Road Near Holly Springs ES, Holly Springs, Georgia (PWS) is showing 29.5 degrees...  still have drizzle here.


----------



## jsullivan03 (Dec 15, 2010)

30 in Vinings up from 29 @ 6pm.  Stuff still frozen.  Busted my rump walking the dog.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

000
nous42 kffc 160121
pnsffc
gaz001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>048-052>057-161000-

public information statement
national weather service peachtree city ga
821 pm est wed dec 15 2010

...significant icing of roads reported across north georgia...

A weak weather system moving over a residual arctic air mass
across north georgia has resulted in significant road icing
across north georgia from light sleet and freezing rain. The
event began about 4 pm this afternoon in the rome and cedartown
area and was spreading into gainesville and dahlonega by 8 pm this
evening. Most areas north of a carrollton...atlanta...lawrenceville...
Gainesville line were reporting significant icing on roadways with
literally hundreds of accidents in many north georgia counties.
Some roads have been closed from icing and accidents. For road
conditions...please contact the georgia department of
transportation for road and highway conditions. As of 8 pm
est...the following counties had reported significant icing on
roadways:

Bartow...carroll...catoosa...chatooga...cherokee...cobb...dade...
Dawson...dekalb...douglas...floyd...forsyth...north fulton...gilmer...
Gordon...gwinnett...haralson...paulding...pickens...and walker.

As of this writing...roads were starting to ice up in parts of lumpkin...
And hall counties.

Please stay tuned to noaa weather radio or commercial radio and television
for further statements and advisories on this winter weather situation.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

It is 28.2 here in Dacula and has not moved.

The radar is intensifying with the moisture blowing up from about Acworth down to south Atlanta.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

There are numerous roads impassable in Cherokee County but the following roads are currently officially closed:
Reinhardt College Parkway
Mill Creek Road
...Eagle Drive
Towne Lake Parkway
Woodstock Road overpass at Interstate 75
Hickory Flat Highway at the Cherokee- Fulton county line


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> It is 28.2 here in Dacula and has not moved.
> 
> The radar is intensifying with the moisture blowing up from about Acworth down to south Atlanta.



just got in from outside and its raining steady and 29'ish


----------



## boneboy96 (Dec 15, 2010)

It's a sheet of ice from Alpharetta (work) to Roswell (home).  Worst is the hilly roads here in the sub-division...they aren't getting the traffic the main roads are getting.   Sanders are out on Haynes Bridge Road.   Stay indoors if you don't have to go out!


----------



## Bill Mc (Dec 15, 2010)

Had my BIL/SIL from Lake Notterly for lunch today. 

I called their cell phone to see how they did going back. 

They stopped and got a room in Jasper. They had no trouble but there were so many idjits driving like nothing weatherwise was happening.


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

I personally think it will be 5-7 am before temps come up.

Good thing is we don't have rain still falling late into the night, even though it is raining again in Metro Atlanta.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 15, 2010)

Worried 'bout ya'll up North, ya'll stay safe & keep us advised how everyone is doing........... any news on OFH???


----------



## Keebs (Dec 15, 2010)

Keebs said:


> Worried 'bout ya'll up North, ya'll stay safe & keep us advised how everyone is doing........... any news on OFH???


Just checked FB, OFH & Zman is home safe along with BigFish!!  That was posted about 8 min's ago!!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Dec 15, 2010)

Keebs said:


> Worried 'bout ya'll up North, ya'll stay safe & keep us advised how everyone is doing........... any news on OFH???


She, and Zander made it in safely!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 15, 2010)

So in all the chaos today... I have this little nugget for you out of Birmingham's NWS tonight at 6:45

BY FRIDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 
PLAINS...FORCING A GULF LOW TO DEVELOP. THIS IS WHERE THE FUN 
BEGINS. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT 
OF THE COLD AIR THAT THE LOW WILL BRING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNTS. THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WAS MUCH WARMER AND PROFILES SUPPORTED JUST RAIN ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING AT 
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE I-20 
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TODAY AS IT WILL BE 
THE COLD AIR TRYING TO WORK OUT THE WARMER AIR. IN FACT WE MAY SEE A 
WARM NOSE GET STUCK AROUND THE 700 TO 850 MB LEVELS WITH FREEZING OR 
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY 
MORNING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARM NOSE WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT 
OF THIS THREAT AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...SOUNDING 
PROFILES INDICATE A SNOW/RAIN MIX POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A SELMA 
TO ROANOKE LINE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO A TOUCH NORTH OF THAT 
AND STICK WITH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. STILL ALOT OF TIMING ISSUES AND 
THREATS TO WORK OUT AS THIS APPROACHES...SO STAY TUNED.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 15, 2010)

yeah, I may have spoken too soon.  Back down to 28 and we're in the clouds, so it's not raining, but the mist is freezing everything up.  With the snow still on the ground everything is more than just a little slick.  I've told our guests that are staying the night that it will be above freezing before they have to hike out. . . I hope I'm not regretting telling them that come breakfast time!!!


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 15, 2010)

DDD said:


> So in all the chaos today... I have this little nugget for you out of Birmingham's NWS tonight at 6:45
> 
> BY FRIDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
> PLAINS...FORCING A GULF LOW TO DEVELOP. THIS IS WHERE THE FUN
> ...




I like those fellas in Bham better then ours. Picked this off there report earlier

REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NEXT SYSTEM FRI-SAT APPEARS MORE
AND MORE ON EACH MODEL RUN TO BE A COASTAL SYSTEM WITH RAIN FROM
THAT FAVORING SE GA...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND CHC POPS FURTHER
NORTH. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
ARCTIC OUTBREAK TOWARD CHRISTMAS...BUT WITH LITTLE PCPN.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 15, 2010)

Roads are froze over in Dawson and Forsyth county. Just got in. I hope the IDIOT that passed me on the 2 lane made it home.


----------



## OutFishHim (Dec 15, 2010)

Took me 5 hours to go from Canton to Woodstock (17 miles).  Would have stayed put, but my 6 year old was still at school.  Took going in by foot for a mile to get him (since the bridge was closed).... I am SO thankful I made it home...thought for sure I was spending the night on Sixes Road...


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

Stuck on 75 northbound right on Allatoona bridge!!!! IN PARK!!!!


----------



## OutFishHim (Dec 16, 2010)

AccUbonD said:


> Stuck on 75 northbound right on Altoona bridge!!!! IN PARK!!!!



Hope you have enough gas to get you through the night!


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

3/4 of a tank and still in park.


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

I don't know what is going on none of the traffic sites and 511 are not up to date.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 16, 2010)

AccUbonD said:


> 3/4 of a tank and still in park.



How many idiots around you are looking criminally insane?  Stay safe and have people started abandoning vehicles?


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

None yet, but thats what I've been waiting for.


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

One pee bottle full and one spit bottle that I can convert if I have to before hitting the side of the road. Lol


----------



## WoodUSMC (Dec 16, 2010)

Be careful out there! I am in charge of security at the hospital in Murphy, NC. Been on duty since 7pm yesterday evening. Around 10pm the freezing rain moved in and it has been slicker than owl snot. I made my last round in the truck at around 1 am this morning and parked it. 4 wheel drive is no good on the ice. Just have to see what daybreak brings. Hopefully it will start warming up!
Chris



AccUbonD said:


> I don't know what is going on none of the traffic sites and 511 are not up to date.


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

I'm about 100 yards from the Allatoona bridge.


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

Movement is hard to come by


----------



## DDD (Dec 16, 2010)

Freezing Rain reloaded overnight and is falling right now.  Roads are re-freezing because our idiot t.v. people have yet to understand that the precip is re-cooling the air at the surface.


As hard as this is to explain, if a thermometer is 8 feet off the ground at 33, the air trapped at the surface 1 foot off the ground is freezing at 31.  

Maybe one day they will figure it out.


----------



## DDD (Dec 16, 2010)

I saw where the bridge at Chastain and 575 is closed.  That is about 300 yards from my office.  

Time to go back to bed.


----------



## DDD (Dec 16, 2010)

AccUbonD said:


> Stuck on 75 northbound right on Allatoona bridge!!!! IN PARK!!!!



you still parked or have you gotten in gear?


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

I guess GatorB is well on his way now, I finally made it home.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 16, 2010)

Should i try to make it to norcross or not???? Hmmmmmm?  Raining here at the house


----------



## AccUbonD (Dec 16, 2010)

That was an experience I'll never forget. Pick me up a Tennessee hat on ur way back.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Dec 16, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> Should i try to make it to norcross or not???? Hmmmmmm?  Raining here at the house



If you can wait until daylight as the temp here is going up .


----------



## boneboy96 (Dec 16, 2010)

Still 30 in Roswell and one big ice rink.  Be careful today folks!


----------



## Sweetwater (Dec 16, 2010)

I ain't making my 10 mile commute till 9am.

Glad to hear all you folks made it home.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2010)

31.8 here in N. Walton and suuuullllliiiiiicccckkkkk out there.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Dec 16, 2010)

If at all possible, stay home till it melts.  Worked a years worth of auto accidents last night.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 16, 2010)

roads were good from east cherokee, arnold mill, 140, holcomb bridge-jimmy carter to Norcross.  

If you need a used car, go to Arnold Mill Rd.  There are about a hundred to choose from.


----------



## Backcountry (Dec 16, 2010)

yeah the weather guys missed this one.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 16, 2010)

Backcountry said:


> yeah the weather guys missed this one.



Imagine that. Love watching Ken Cook try to explain his way out last night. He kept saying something about how it is soooo hard to predict that little rain and if it will freeze. Blah Blah


----------



## jsullivan03 (Dec 16, 2010)

Dustin Pate said:


> Imagine that. Love watching Ken Cook try to explain his way out last night. He kept saying something about how it is soooo hard to predict that little rain and if it will freeze. Blah Blah



I kept hearing them say, we can predict weather not road temperatures.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 16, 2010)

jsullivan03 said:


> I kept hearing them say, we can predict weather not road temperatures.


  Idiots. I guess they had forgot about the record lows we had at the first of the week. Dont take rocket sciece to figure out the rds were gonna be frezzing. I dont even watch the TV weather folk anymore!


----------



## slip (Dec 16, 2010)

GA DAWG said:


> I dont even watch the TV weather folk anymore!



x2.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 16, 2010)

39 and holding. It won't see the predicted 54 degrees today.


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 16, 2010)

Looks like a possible White Christmas


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 16, 2010)

high 40's in norcross, low 50's in woodstock...

you sure you dont need some more batteries for your thermometer?


----------



## slip (Dec 16, 2010)

60.3 °F 
Light Rain

nice to thaw out for a minute


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 16, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> high 40's in norcross, low 50's in woodstock...
> 
> you sure you dont need some more batteries for your thermometer?



Must be reading that dang C number rather than the F number


----------



## DDD (Dec 16, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 39 and holding. It won't see the predicted 54 degrees today.



Dude, it's 55 at the house.  

Maybe you are in a cold pocket?


----------



## DDD (Dec 16, 2010)

Just to clarify... we had a shot at some snow Saturday - Sunday, but this looks to be going to North Carolina and Virginia.

There is more on the horizon for Tuesday and trying my darndest to make some happen Christmas morning.  Some of the players seem to want to get on the field Christmas day or Christmas Eve.  Would be cool to go to Christmas Eve service at church in the snow.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 16, 2010)

60 here, windy, with a light rain.


----------



## Inspector (Dec 16, 2010)

chiefsquirrel83 said:


> Looks like a possible White Christmas



I get a kick out of how The Weather Channel is calling for 48/26 on Christmas Eve and 45/24 on Christmas with "showers" for both days.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 16, 2010)

Inspector said:


> I get a kick out of how The Weather Channel is calling for 48/26 on Christmas Eve and 45/24 on Christmas with "showers" for both days.



Oh great, you're back!


----------



## Inspector (Dec 16, 2010)

Huh?  You ever seen it rain at 26 or 24?   I haven't.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 16, 2010)

I seen it rain at 27 last night but thats not 24 or 26


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 16, 2010)

Inspector said:


> Huh?  You ever seen it rain at 26 or 24?   I haven't.



Been wondering when you weee going to show up wedge boy


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 16, 2010)

61 Degrees in Pendergrass tonight....balmy!


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Dec 17, 2010)

DDD said:


> So let's talk about Wednesday night and Saturday - Sunday of this week.
> 
> Wednesday is becoming more and more dicy looking.  The temperature is going to be right near freezing with some moisture coming in.  Not a ton of moisture, but enough.
> 
> ...


Good job DDD you were spot on!! Everybody on the tv and radio saying OOPS sorry this one caught me off guard!! Not You


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 17, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Been wondering when you weee going to show up wedge boy


 So that's who that is !!!!!  Well, now that he's back we're done with the winter weather. He repell's interesting weather like DEET to a mosquito..


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 17, 2010)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So that's who that is !!!!!  Well, now that he's back we're done with the winter weather. He repell's interesting weather like DEET to a mosquito..



   And how


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 17, 2010)

Dawson County schools called off again today. Black ice again I would suspect. 

I know people hate ice and it is dangerous, but the ride down 53 and Cowart Rd the other night was intense. I havent felt that alive in awhile. Amazing how your senses perk up. That and a wife screaming, "slow down, OMG, watch out, and get off his rear at the top of her lungs for an hour straight will get your extra sensory electrons flowing. 

Funny, she was tough when we met. 15 yrs and three kids later and she's now so cautious. Such is the circle of life. And middle age.


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 17, 2010)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> Dawson County schools called off again today. Black ice again I would suspect.
> 
> I know people hate ice and it is dangerous, but the ride down 53 and Cowart Rd the other night was intense. I havent felt that alive in awhile. Amazing how your senses perk up. That and a wife screaming, "slow down, OMG, watch out, and get off his rear at the top of her lungs for an hour straight will get your extra sensory electrons flowing.
> 
> Funny, she was tough when we met. 15 yrs and three kids later and she's now so cautious. Such is the circle of life. And middle age.



Thinking of trading up?  Or just trying to get yourself beat to death by a "middle aged" woman?


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

YankeeRedneck said:


> Good job DDD you were spot on!! Everybody on the tv and radio saying OOPS sorry this one caught me off guard!! Not You



Thanks man!  

It's almost like if the T.V. mets were pilots, they would crash a lot.  They look at their digital read out and it says they are 5,000 feet off the ground...  If they just looked out their window they would see they are 50 feet off the ground... but then Glenn Burns and Ken Cook would swear it was a trick.


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

This weekend system is screwy.  Models are all over the place, from snow, to freezing rain to rain to almost nothing.  I am not sure what to think.  I will say this, sometimes in situations like this we get the REAL surprises... I will have to keep watching.

For note, the 12Z NAM just came out and puts snow down from Athens to outskirts of ATL Saturday night.  Go figure.


From ATL NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT TO S GA/N FL TODAY. SLOW
MOVING AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE MOVING WITH
THE FRONT. 20-30 PERCENT POPS CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA TODAY ALONG
WITH THE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. HOLE IN THE CLOUDS OVER NE GA AND AM
VERY UNSURE IF THIS HOLE WILL INCREASE IN SIZE OR FILL IN LATER
TODAY AS SOLID CLOUDS GO WELL BACK ACROSS THE SRN STATES.

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE CAUSES RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO CENTRAL GA
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
N THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE FAR N...SOME COLDER POCKETS COULD GET
FREEZING RAIN UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ON SATURDAY.THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE TN
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES A CRAP SHOOT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING S AND SOME POTENTIAL BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT
AND NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 17, 2010)

What's the latest DDD? I bragged to my wife that the best weather guys were on the forum and not t.v. so now she is asking me what is up for tonight/morning.

So whatcha think?


----------



## pbradley (Dec 17, 2010)

Will it snow in the Point South area north of Flint River Road on Christmas Eve after 2 pm?


----------



## chiefsquirrel83 (Dec 17, 2010)

pbradley said:


> Will it snow in the Point South area north of Flint River Road on Christmas Eve after 2 pm?



whew...I use to live over near Thomas Rd. and worked at Pebble Creek...


----------



## Resica (Dec 17, 2010)

pbradley said:


> Will it snow in the Point South area north of Flint River Road on Christmas Eve after 2 pm?



No it won't.


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

CollinsCraft77 said:


> What's the latest DDD? I bragged to my wife that the best weather guys were on the forum and not t.v. so now she is asking me what is up for tonight/morning.
> 
> So whatcha think?



This is pretty much a non-event.  

I am going to model watch tonight, but I am not impressed.


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 17, 2010)

55 here, and rainin`.


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

Just for kicks...

12Z GFS today showed a nice snow storm Christmas night and the morning of the 26th.  Serious cold outbreak as well.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 17, 2010)

DDD said:


> Just for kicks...
> 
> 12Z GFS today showed a nice snow storm Christmas night and the morning of the 26th.  Serious cold outbreak as well.



North of I-20?


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

Well... now I am starting to think this might get interesting... 

This out from Birmingham...



> A LITTLE UNEASY: Nights like this always make us a little uneasy; a relatively cold airmass in place, an approaching short wave, and a developing low in the northern Gulf. We have mentioned the chance of light rain late tonight and tomorrow morning, with some chance of a few snow flakes over the northern third of the state. But, based on model QPF we have forecasted light precipitation and no serious issues related to weather. But, we all know that things can go wrong with this kind of forecast in this kind of setup.
> 
> I am sitting here in the weather office at ABC 33/40 tonight watching the radar loops across the Southeast U.S., and it sure looks like the models might have underestimated the amount of precipitation with this developing storm system. Echoes are well north up into Arkansas and Tennessee, and the rain seems to be increasing in areal coverage over Mississippi.
> 
> BOTTOM LINE: Just be aware that there is a chance we might see some kind of surprise late tonight and tomorrow morning. Maybe a little more snow than we bargained for over North Alabama, and heavier rain totals over the central and southern counties of the state. Stay tuned…


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

Well... wow... if you live in North GA.

I imagine they are putting this out due to current radar and the latest NAM...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-181200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA
SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE...TO
JASPER...TO CLEVELAND LINE...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF TOWNS...UNION...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...DAWSON...AND WHITE. GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THESE AREAS SATURDAY. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL
BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS. A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2500 FEET.

AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...RESIDENTS OF FAR
NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL
THROUGH THESE AREAS...SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.


----------



## DDD (Dec 17, 2010)

Birmingham NWS just posted this an hour ago...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
820 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

.UPDATE...EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT ARRIVED JUST YET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPCN DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE FORMING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG LEAD IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE
COASTAL REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PCPN SPREADING INTO
ARKANSAS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF. MODELS TEND
TO UNDER-FORECAST AREAL COVERAGE AND EASTWARD ADVECTION OF
PCPN IN THESE FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW PATTERNS. UPDATED
FORECAST TO MENTION SLEET ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. ONCE NEW MODELS ARRIVE...FORECAST
MAY NEED TO UPDATED AGAIN TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING NEAR THE
32 DEGREE MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT...TO
WARRIOR...TO HEFLIN LINE...AND THESE AREAS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS ON MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 17, 2010)

Its pretty cool out right now. Already have a small frost. I think it will snow in the AM


----------



## rjcruiser (Dec 17, 2010)

hmmm...from non-event to event in 1 model flat


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 17, 2010)

Dang it! I have to go to Canton tommrow for my sons Wrestling match...I had enough of ice Wed night


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 17, 2010)

Temp is 42 up here . . . gonna have to get a good bit of evaporational cooling to get us to have any snow.  Not out of the question though.  If our new weather station is right, the dewpoint is 17.  It will be interesting to see what it is when I wake up at 5:45.


----------



## Resica (Dec 17, 2010)

16 degrees here with a dewpoint temp. of 14.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 17, 2010)

It can stay well north of me for all I care, at least this time around.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 18, 2010)

38 this morning with a dewpoint of 32. . . doesn't look good for snow.


----------



## sbfowler (Dec 18, 2010)

Woke up early with the dogs wanting to go out and it starts raining about the time they hit the yard. So much for raking leaves and putting out fresh pine straw today as I had planned!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 18, 2010)

We got snow....


Beteween Nashville and crossville on 40


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 18, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> We got snow....
> 
> 
> Beteween Nashville and crossville on 40



it was all melted when we came through there.... at about noon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 18, 2010)

Looks like the GFS is having a little trouble figuring out exactly what is going to happen on Saturday..


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 18, 2010)

Whats the possibilities?


----------



## DDD (Dec 18, 2010)

White Christmas Porn.  GFS and UKMET all pointing to white Christmas from Mississippi to Charlotte.  Don't worry, it probably wont happen.


----------



## DDD (Dec 19, 2010)

One more tease before I go to bed.  This from the 00Z GFS.  Have Mercy!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Dec 19, 2010)

DDD said:


> One more tease before I go to bed. This from the 00Z GFS. Have Mercy!


 

Oh MYYYY!!! Don't you just hate 7 day advanced teases??


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 19, 2010)

The year of the 7-10 day fantasy storm lives on


----------



## DDD (Dec 19, 2010)

The weather channel is showing light snow for Dacula Christmas day.  Maybe this will make Inspector believe.

Go ahead and plan on 50 degrees and sunshine.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 19, 2010)

Dr. East posted this on his facebook...



> "Oh Christmas storm, oh Christmas storm. I see your potential lurking...."


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 19, 2010)

Okay, Triple D, what is going on for:
December 30 and 31
Jan 1st and Jan 4th


----------



## DDD (Dec 19, 2010)

Don't really have a lot of time tonight.  Just to say all models and when I say all, I mean all models have us in line for a white Christmas.  The models tonight GFS, UKMET, NAM... all pointing to a really good snow storm here Christmas Eve night and a really good show on Christmas Day.  

If we have ever had a real chance at a white Christmas here in GA it is this year.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 19, 2010)

How far south?


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)




----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)




----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

GFS, EURO, Canadian this morning and last night = Major hit from Dallas to Virginia on Christmas Eve through the 26th.  

You could not ask for a better set up and what is scary is that all of the models have it.  Let's hope it holds.


----------



## nickel back (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> GFS, EURO, Canadian this morning and last night = Major hit from Dallas to Virginia on Christmas Eve through the 26th.
> 
> You could not ask for a better set up and what is scary is that all of the models have it.  Let's hope it holds.



yes lets hope it does......


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 20, 2010)

What about down here where we are?


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Nicodemus said:


> What about down here where we are?



Nic, given verbadim, it would be Christmas night before you saw anything down that way and it would probably be light at best.


I will keep you up to date though.

Right now I would think Macon northward.  I look for this to trend North as the days get closer, so my gut says I-20 northward for Christmas day... but we will have to wait and see.

It is still a long way off, but I like to see it.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 20, 2010)

What about my area man?  We aren't but 20 minutes south of macon.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> Nic, given verbadim, it would be Christmas night before you saw anything down that way and it would probably be light at best.
> 
> 
> I will keep you up to date though.
> ...



Lets just hope it doesn't move as far north as the operational run of the GFS has it and is more inline with the ensembles and the rest of the models


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 20, 2010)

hanging on every word......


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 20, 2010)

Any updates?


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

NAM looks very much in line with the EURO... the GFS that just came out is not as impressive, but it's one run.  Will have to take a look at the ensebles and see what they say.

Bigox... be my guest.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 20, 2010)

What in the world?


----------



## spotman (Dec 20, 2010)

Bitteroot said:


> hanging on every word......


X2


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> NAM looks very much in line with the EURO... the GFS that just came out is not as impressive, but it's one run.  Will have to take a look at the ensebles and see what they say.
> 
> Bigox... be my guest.



I can find the ensembles for 12z yet, but I like seeing over a 50% chance of snow on the earlier runs


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 20, 2010)

What areas are we talking about here fellas?


----------



## Keebs (Dec 20, 2010)

Bitteroot said:


> hanging on every word......





spotman said:


> X2


X3


----------



## K80 (Dec 20, 2010)

I'll believe it when I see it.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Holy Baby Jesus on Christmas!


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Wowzers.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Notice that this run of the Canadian has it bordering right on the I-20 section.

The EURO is just coming out and looks very similar to the GFS and the Canadian.  EURO blast snow from I-20 northward.  

I am scared to death with all this showing 5 days out, wish it was showing this 24 hours out.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> Holy Baby Jesus on Christmas!





DDD said:


> Wowzers.



 Does not compute for SOUTHGeorgia!!


----------



## marknga (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> Notice that this run of the Canadian has it bordering right on the I-20 section.
> 
> The EURO is just coming out and looks very similar to the GFS and the Canadian.  EURO blast snow from I-20 northward.
> 
> I am scared to death with all this showing 5 days out, wish it was showing this 24 hours out.



Yeah I am reluctant to start believing .......

but man that would be sweet. I am 50 years old and have never had a "white Christmas".


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 20, 2010)

That would be one heck of a Christmas present... But I am like DDD I wish this was 24 hours out and not 5 days out.  It is very exciting to see the potential!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Let me be clear.  As it stands right now, South Georgia would be all rain.

Right now, I would be stretching it down to say... Griffin.  Not a mile farther south.

Lots and LOTS of model runs to go.  Everything has shifted south in the last 24-36 hours.  It could shift back north or it could shift farther south.  

Just gotta watch and I might as well go ahead and start clearing my inbox.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 20, 2010)

DDD said:


> Let me be clear.  As it stands right now, South Georgia would be all rain.
> 
> Right now, I would be stretching it down to say... Griffin.  Not a mile farther south.
> 
> ...


Yep!!


----------



## FireHunter174 (Dec 20, 2010)

I'm in Fannin County.  Crossing my fingers, the kids would love it.


Although, we did have a pretty rough time last week with accidents and such.  I was responding to an accident in my Blazer and slid sideways down Hwy 515 for a ways.  I finally corrected and went on to the scene slipping and sliding.  Upon arrival, we had one vehicle flipped and two in the ditch on each side.  Everybody was OK though.  It was pure ice on the road.  School was called off until Friday, and it was optional.


----------



## Turkeypaw (Dec 20, 2010)

12Z GGEM


----------



## Turkeypaw (Dec 20, 2010)

18Z GFS Ensembles


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 20, 2010)

Bring it on...as long as it stays on all the models for the next few days and then shows up strong on the NAM come Wed night...


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 20, 2010)

I am liking that last model picture.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> I am liking that last model picture.



That would not really be anything but passing flurries at best.  But I guess you will take whatever you can get.


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 20, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> I am liking that last model picture.



I will take y'all's word for it. I have no idea what all that means.


----------



## MTMiller (Dec 20, 2010)

ya'll are too funny.  The low on Saturday is 39 degrees and the high is 46.  How is is going to snow?  Maybe some flurries and a slight mix is my prediction.  More than likely just a rain is all that will happen.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

MTMiller said:


> ya'll are too funny.  The low on Saturday is 39 degrees and the high is 46.  How is is going to snow?  Maybe some flurries and a slight mix is my prediction.  More than likely just a rain is all that will happen.



UH OH!  Someone has been watching Fox 5 again!  

I told my wife tonight, there is not one thermal model that shows a high temp Saturday higher than 35, so how they get on t.v. and say that stuff is beyond me.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 20, 2010)

How about some updates?

Any chance these models with track further south to give us more than some passing flurries?

And yes, I will take what I can get......


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

NAM is rolling now... hold the phone.


----------



## huntinglady74 (Dec 20, 2010)

Keebs said:


> Yep!!



UH HUH sure should...


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

NAM looks to be in line with the EURO.

Nothing really to report other than watching more models and praying the pattern holds.


----------



## DDD (Dec 20, 2010)

Everything looks still on track, GFS sheers the energy out on Christmas Eve but it is the outlier and it is the operational GFS.

UKMET and Canadian all still preaching the same southern snow.

See you kids on the flip side.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 21, 2010)

I noticed again WU now had at least some possibility of snow on Christmas Day. Yesterday it was all rain.


----------



## CollinsCraft77 (Dec 21, 2010)

For Dawson County that is


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2010)

The flip side is lookin good 

The GFS looks like it's pulling its normal shenanigans in the 3-5 day out window but everything else looks good still.  The UKMET did have the low down by Tampa though on this morning's run


----------



## MTMiller (Dec 21, 2010)

Some fun facts from NOAA - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=christmas2010

Climatology for Christmas Day


As Christmas Day draws closer, many questions arise about what kind of weather Georgia has seen on Christmas. What has been the warmest Christmas? When was the coldest Christmas? Has Georgia ever seen a white Christmas? Here is some information that will answer some of these questions.

On average, high temperatures ranged from the mid 40s across north Georgia to the mid 60s across central Georgia. The average low temperatures range from the mid 20s across north Georgia to the mid 40s across central Georgia. However, days of Christmas past have been quite warm with the record high temperatures in the 70s across north and central Georgia. We have also seen bitterly cold Christmas days where record low temperatures were in the single digits.

Record Temperatures for December 25  
  Atlanta Athens Macon Columbus 
  Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min 
Record Temp. (°F) 72 0 77 3 78 7 76 8 
Year 1889 1983 1955 1983 1889 1983 1955 1983 

While most Christmas days have been dry, record rainfall amounts have exceeded 2.0 inches at all of the climate sites.

Record Precipitation for December 25 
  Atlanta Athens Macon Columbus 
Precipitation (inches) 2.06 2.52 2.68 3.32 
Year 1945 1945 1964 1964 

Although we have had very cold Christmases, records show that White Christmases are rare in Georgia. The only locations that have received measureable snowfall are Atlanta and Athens, although Columbus had a trace of snow in 1970. Macon has never seen snow on Christmas day.

Snowfall on December 25 
  Atlanta Athens Macon Columbus 
Number of Days snowfall â‰¥ 0.01" 2 1 0 0 
Number of Days snowfall = Trace 13 1 0 1 

Record Snowfall on December 25 
  Atlanta Athens Macon Columbus 
Snow Amount 1.6 0.2 0 Trace 
Year of Occurence 1881 1993 - 1970 





Avearage Maximum Temperature for Dec. 25th. 
Average Minimum Temperature for Dec. 25th. 
*The above data is based on climate and coop stations with at least 20 years of data.


----------



## Turkeypaw (Dec 21, 2010)

Forecast Discussion from GSP


USING THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTS IN QUITE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH SHOW A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARISE OUT OF THE FACT THAT THE GEM IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ALLOWS IT TO PHASE
SOONER. A SLUG OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE IS POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY SUPPORTING UVV. IN FACT...THE ECMWF
SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD GIVE RISE TO SOME
BANDED FEATURES WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD OF
HEAVY PRECIP RATES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM BOTH MODELS ARE QUITE
COLD AND SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FA FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. FURTHERMORE...AN
INSPECTION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER THAT
IS BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
AND COULD HANG ON TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THE LONGEST. THE BOTTOM
LINE OF ALL THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FA IS
INCREASING.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 21, 2010)

Got any more updates DDD?


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

mewabbithunter said:


> Got any more updates DDD?



Did you ask for a snow shovel from Santa?

I am waiting on the GFS to come out... but all I can say from last night's EURO, Canadian and other models is Wow.  Just wow.  It's unreal what the EURO called for last night.  I am almost scared to post it.

The GFS is not on board, the NAM is though along with every other model known to man.  The GFS is the only outlier and the FFC and the local mets are hanging on to it for dear life.

Verbatim, it was 4-6" of snow for Metro Atlanta even South East Georgia.  It was a bomb.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Did you ask for a snow shovel from Santa?
> 
> I am waiting on the GFS to come out... but all I can say from last night's EURO, Canadian and other models is Wow.  Just wow.  It's unreal what the EURO called for last night.  I am almost scared to post it.
> 
> ...


DDD, now don't go teasin' this ol gal!!!!


----------



## nickel back (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Did you ask for a snow shovel from Santa?
> 
> I am waiting on the GFS to come out... but all I can say from last night's EURO, Canadian and other models is Wow.  Just wow.  It's unreal what the EURO called for last night.  I am almost scared to post it.
> 
> ...



man o man,this would be great for a lot of kids and us adults.....come on come on stay together and gives a white christmas......


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

This from Matt East up in North Carolina, his discription describes it best.

Peeps, we want the EURO and the GEM.





> Most of the foreign modeling continues to look good for snow fans for much of the region. In fact, I would imagine most snow lovers would take the 0z run of the GEM or Euro and run with it.
> 
> We really are attempting to thread the needle here. Two disturbances, their interaction, and the timing of that interaction are the key variables here. If they phase too quickly, you get the GFS....if they phase too slowly, you get the UKMET. If Goldilocks finds the porridge she likes, we get the 0z Euro or GEM.
> 
> I am still leaning my forecast in the direction of the GEM and Euro. Until I see a chink in their armor, I see no reason to change. But just remember we are walking the tight-rope here.


----------



## pbradley (Dec 21, 2010)

how many of y'all have to go over the hill and through the woods to visit friends and family for Christmas? That much snow in the ATL means somebody gets killed, and lots of people have wrecks / get hurt.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Verbatim, it was 4-6" of snow for Metro Atlanta even South East Georgia.  It was a bomb.



Ya big tease....I gotta work on Christmas day


----------



## SnowHunter (Dec 21, 2010)

pbradley said:


> how many of y'all have to go over the hill and through the woods to visit friends and family for Christmas? That much snow in the ATL means somebody gets killed, and lots of people have wrecks / get hurt.



Yup, we gotta drive from up here over to Douglasville Christmas morning and back home that evening. I'm hoping it aint too bad. Our saving grace is both Na and I have ice/snow driving experience  Not if the other idiots would stay outta our way  

I hope all yall drive carefully, and be safe durin the weather.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

pbradley said:


> how many of y'all have to go over the hill and through the woods to visit friends and family for Christmas? That much snow in the ATL means somebody gets killed, and lots of people have wrecks / get hurt.



One thing I will say... not sure if this will help or not... the system has slowed on some of the models, to say... Christmas afternoon into Sunday morning.

But to your point, yes, this would be a travel nightmare.

I have a close family member who is high up the ladder with the DOT and I texted him this morning and I am waiting to hear if they are paying attention.

Alot of the SE NWS are starting to change their tune about it.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

This from Alan Huffman who is a MET in North Carolina.  I put him on the same level as Kirk Melish.

He posted this about 20 minutes ago.


----------



## Keebs (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> This from Alan Huffman who is a MET in North Carolina.  I put him on the same level as Kirk Melish.
> 
> He posted this about 20 minutes ago.


 I can "just" make out my county at the very bottom of the map!


----------



## texwilliams (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD that map is snow weather porn!!  Especially for those of us in the northeast corner of the state


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

The GFS just out is much farther south and starting to look more and more like the EURO and GEM, but not quite.  It is trending that way though with each run and the trend is our friend.


----------



## marknga (Dec 21, 2010)

We will be up in Carnesville for Christmas with the folks. I like what wunderground is saying now:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=30521


----------



## grunt0331 (Dec 21, 2010)

That just means my in-laws will be stuck at my house for a couple of extra days.  Better stock up on the George Dickel now.


----------



## LIGHTNING (Dec 21, 2010)




----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> The GFS just out is much farther south and starting to look more and more like the EURO and GEM, but not quite.  It is trending that way though with each run and the trend is our friend.



So is this good for us middle ga folks?


----------



## doenightmare (Dec 21, 2010)

I'm leaving Sunday to go hunting - this is one time I don't want snow.


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 21, 2010)

I would love to deer hunt near home in the snow just once!


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> So is this good for us middle ga folks?



Hasn't gone that far south yet, but that doesn't mean it won't


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Hasn't gone that far south yet, but that doesn't mean it won't



Hook it up big!


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

Special weather statement
national weather service nashville tn
1054 am cst tue dec 21 2010

tnz005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221600-
stewart-montgomery-robertson-sumner-macon-clay-pickett-benton-
houston-humphreys-dickson-cheatham-davidson-wilson-trousdale-
smith-jackson-putnam-overton-fentress-perry-hickman-lewis-
williamson-maury-marshall-rutherford-cannon-de kalb-white-
cumberland-bedford-coffee-warren-grundy-van buren-wayne-lawrence-
giles-
including the cities of...dover...clarksville...springfield...
Gallatin...lafayette...celina...byrdstown...camden...erin...
Waverly...dickson...ashland city...nashville...lebanon...
Mount juliet...hartsville...carthage...gainesboro...cookeville...
Livingston...jamestown...lobelville...centerville...hohenwald...
Franklin...brentwood...columbia...lewisburg...murfreesboro...
Woodbury...smithville...sparta...crossville...shelbyville...
Tullahoma...manchester...mcminnville...altamont...spencer...
Waynesboro...lawrenceburg...pulaski
1054 am cst tue dec 21 2010

...potential exists for first measurable snowfall on christmas in
17 years...

There have been only nine christmases with measurable amounts of
snow since snowfall record keeping began in nashville back in the
winter of 1884 and 1885. The last time measurable snow fell on
christmas day in nashville was in 1993 when three tenths of an
inch was measured. Trace amounts of snow fell on christmas in
2002. Statistically there is only a 7 percent chance of measurable
snow on any given christmas. The most snow ever to fall on
christmas in nashville is 2.7 inches in 1969.

A major storm system is currently over the southwestern united states
and will move across the southern rockies on thursday and into the
southern plains thursday night. During the day friday the system
will move from east texas into louisiana...spreading wintry precipitation
across the middle mississippi valley with rain across the lower
mississippi valley. As the surface system moves northeast into
alabama and north georgia christmas eve night...colder air gets
drawn in behind the surface system...with snow is expected to
develop across middle tennessee christmas eve and continue into
christmas day. Climatologically...this is a favored track for snow
in middle tennessee...but since this event is several days
away...uncertainity still remains in the eventual track of the
storm system and snow amounts.


----------



## southerngentleman (Dec 21, 2010)

Come on DDD....get the white stuff down here to Warner Robins.  Whitetaco and myself are keeping our fingers crossed.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2010)

Think ol Mellish took it kinda hard that they missed the ice last week 



> WSB Meteorologist Kirk Mellish's Exclusive 5-day Forecast
> Kirk Mellish is taking a few days off.



Don't know that I've seen that one before


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

Ahh, I am hitting the woods!  Be back at dark!

Triple D, you and Bigox better have some good news for me when I get back!  



j/k


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

The 12Z run of the EURO.  My GAWD!!!!


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> The 12Z run of the EURO.  My GAWD!!!!



No idea what that means?  Is it going to snow at my house?


----------



## cejay825 (Dec 21, 2010)




----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

I am strictly talking about the EURO model in this post:

1st, this thing is 4 days away, so I STRESS extreme caution when taking this to the bank, but never the less...


Given verbatim, the storm would bomb us.  Given moisture amounts and temps, this run would give Macon over to Augusta 6-8" of snow.

from I-20 up to the mountains it would be 3-6" with the 6" being closer to the I-20 cooridor and slowly dropping as you go north.

The snow / rain line would be just north of Warner Robbins drawing a line East and directly west.

North Carolina up that way would see 8-10" Christmas night into Sunday.


Given verbatim, ATL and most of GA would wake up Christmas morning to a serious snow storm.


----------



## LIGHTNING (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> The 12Z run of the EURO. My GAWD!!!!


 

Well?


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> The 12Z run of the EURO.  My GAWD!!!!



Post it up 

I was just comparing the two previous runs on the NAM and look how much further south it is...a little slower too...

6z







12z


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> I am strictly talking about the EURO model in this post:
> 
> 1st, this thing is 4 days away, so I STRESS extreme caution when taking this to the bank, but never the less...
> 
> ...



Sounds good.  Im going to go with this


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Post it up
> 
> I was just comparing the two previous runs on the NAM and look how much further south it is...a little slower too...
> 
> ...



I assume you are referring to the solid blue line?  Is that the snow line or cold front, what?


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

EURO 120 Hour  

This probably wont occur... but man it looks sweet!


----------



## marknga (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD all those colors are really pretty, I mean the way they make funny shapes and all BUT all we really want to know is what color will the grass be? I mean is the grass going to be dreary winter brown or beautiful White Christmas White??


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 21, 2010)

deermeat270 said:


> I assume you are referring to the solid blue line?  Is that the snow line or cold front, what?



Where that green is over the center of the country.  On the 6z it looks to be centered somewhere near the MO/AR line and in the 12 z it's further west still and closer to the TX/OK line.  Further south is a good thing right now   Those are pictures of the same forecast time just taken from two different times of the NAM run.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 21, 2010)

Looks like the Weather Channel is starting to forecast snow for N. Georgia.


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

That looks like a major event if DDD's charts hold out.


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

mewabbithunter said:


> Looks like the Weather Channel is starting to forecast snow for N. Georgia.



http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...te=FFC&textField1=34.5368&textField2=-83.9846

Dahlonega has a slight chance of snow or rain.  I am going to keep a close eye on that one.


----------



## FireHunter174 (Dec 21, 2010)

Boy, ya'll are going over my head with the weather terminology and numbers. 

So, as far as Fannin County, Ga., what should be expected this next week?


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 21, 2010)

This map is posted on the WEATHER CHANNEL website.


----------



## slip (Dec 21, 2010)

looks like it might just end up being rain for folks here in the locust grove area huh?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Dec 21, 2010)

Man if this keeps up this thread is going to destroy last years.  I remember seeing almost a 100 people watching this thread last year waiting on DDD updates for the decent snow we had.  Add in a white Christmas and I think you will see 200 DDD.


----------



## GA DAWG (Dec 21, 2010)

I predict we have to start a winter weather thread 2 before this is all said and done


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
338 pm est tue dec 21 2010

.long term /friday through tuesday/...
High pressure will dominate at the beginning of the long term.
Large model differences with the next system progged to move
through the cwa. Gfs shows the low tracking across north georgia
friday night and clears the cwa out precip wise by saturday except
for east central georgia. This solution would hold the bulk of any
winter weather precip to the north of us...however the thicknesses
suggest extreme north georgia could still see a dusting of snow.
The ecmwf solution is quite different though. This slower solution
tracks the low south of the cwa across the florida panhandle
saturday night. If this were to pan out...a winter weather
situation could set up across the cwa. Current forecast leans
toward gfs solution but this will continually need to be re-
evaluated and hopefully we will see some consistency between the
models soon.

If the EURO slides towards the GFS we are screwed, but as of the last running of the GFS it was tending towards the EURO.

The latest run of the 18Z GFS just rolled out and it is tending towards the EURO, so keep your fingers crossed.

Next EURO will be out around 1:30, I may set my alarm and get up and check it out.  Next GFS will be out around 11:30.  I will be up for that one.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

Fox 5 Kills ME!!!  "The weather authority?!?!?"  Give me a break!


----------



## ditchdoc24 (Dec 21, 2010)

Channel 2 is calling for a 40% chance of a wintry mix for Christmas Day.


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Fox 5 Kills ME!!!  "The weather authority?!?!?"  Give me a break!



dont forget about the cool wiz-o-meter on channel 11.  saw that for the first time today and couldnt help but laugh at the name.


----------



## Jeff Raines (Dec 21, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> dont forget about the cool wiz-o-meter on channel 11.  saw that for the first time today and couldnt help but laugh at the name.



Yeah,I feel like Beavis when ever they put that up...he he hehe...they said wiz


----------



## deermeat270 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Fox 5 Kills ME!!!  "The weather authority?!?!?"  Give me a break!



You are my weather authority.


----------



## Hornet22 (Dec 21, 2010)

Man I hope none of this happens!!! At least till after Christmas.  Our boys hadn't been home in the last 4 Christmas'. It is perty, but folks got to have their lights and all; so when the unowat hits those limbs and lines, somebody's got to fix them. Merry Christmas all ya'll, and lets just keep our fangers crossed for a light, fluffy dusting.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

I really need some updates!


----------



## Resica (Dec 21, 2010)

Hornet22 said:


> Man I hope none of this happens!!! At least till after Christmas.  Our boys hadn't been home in the last 4 Christmas'. It is perty, but folks got to have their lights and all; so when the unowat hits those limbs and lines, somebody's got to fix them. Merry Christmas all ya'll, and lets just keep our fangers crossed for a light, fluffy dusting.



You supposed to get ice?


----------



## nickel back (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> Area forecast discussion
> national weather service peachtree city ga
> 338 pm est tue dec 21 2010
> 
> ...



well some one is wrong and I would like to think that DDD is right....


----------



## Bnathanb1982 (Dec 21, 2010)

*Of course*



nickel back said:


> well some one is wrong and I would like to think that DDD is right....



I'm not an expert by any means and don't know a whole lot, but after lurking on the weather boards and on here, it seems that the GFS is the favored model of NWS.  Plus it is easier for them to go with the model that is NOT suggesting snow.  If they forecast rain up until 2 days before and then change it to snow, nobody really remembers they waited until the last minute because folks are happy they got snow.  However if they forecast snow way out and get everyone hyped up and it doesn't pan out(which it usually doesn't), people will talk and cuss them all the way until the next chance of snow.  Snow in the south is a BIG deal and they want to be as sure as possible before going out on a limb.  Of course this just my opinion.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

Bnathanb1982 said:


> I'm not an expert by any means and don't know a whole lot, but after lurking on the weather boards and on here, it seems that the GFS is the favored model of NWS.  Plus it is easier for them to go with the model that is NOT suggesting snow.  If they forecast rain up until 2 days before and then change it to snow, nobody really remembers they waited until the last minute because folks are happy they got snow.  However if they forecast snow way out and get everyone hyped up and it doesn't pan out(which it usually doesn't), people will talk and cuss them all the way until the next chance of snow.  Snow in the south is a BIG deal and they want to be as sure as possible before going out on a limb.  Of course this just my opinion.



This is 100% Correct.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

Updates DDD?


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> Updates DDD?



NAM is only out to 80 hours, it is much farther south and looks identical to the EURO... probably more south than the 
EURO to be honest.

This might rob areas like Tennessee.

The NorEaster way up above Maine needs to get the heck out of the way or it is going to ruin the party.

GFS will not be out until around 11:30.

More then.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> NAM is only out to 80 hours, it is much farther south and looks identical to the EURO... probably more south than the
> EURO to be honest.
> 
> This might rob areas like Tennessee.
> ...



Darn Yankee storm needs to get outta there with the quickness!

I see where weather.com finally has my area getting some snow.

11:30 is late!  





See you then! 

Oh yeah, who cares about Tennessee!


----------



## Hornet22 (Dec 21, 2010)

Resica said:


> You supposed to get ice?



R--------it don't have to be anything but a powerful rumor when you work for a contractor; if ya'lls power co or  co-op calls, we'll scramble crews from all the states we're in if a customer wants to pay for the tires to roll. It's Great to have a job this day and time and I'm not complaining by any means. Been in the industry since '82. Just feel sorry for a few of these young guns missing CHRISTmas with their babies. Hope ya'll have a blessed and merry christmas.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

GFS is running... early pannels look to be much like the EURO...

Wait for it.... Wait for it...


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> GFS is running... early pannels look to be much like the EURO...
> 
> Wait for it.... Wait for it...


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

GFS has taken a GIANT step towards the EURO!!!  It's not perfect, but it is the trend.  It is not going in the opposite direction.

Ya'll better start thinking now about what you are going to do if it snows 2-6" on Christmas day.

It may all go away, but with this set up it is starting to look good for somewhere between Macon and I - 20 Northward.


----------



## slip (Dec 21, 2010)

sounds good.


----------



## Fro1911nut (Dec 21, 2010)

O no its dead...the talking head on channel 2 is talking about it

DDD when you say northward...NW GA in that? Or is this more Athens way?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> GFS has taken a GIANT step towards the EURO!!!  It's not perfect, but it is the trend.  It is not going in the opposite direction.
> 
> Ya'll better start thinking now about what you are going to do if it snows 2-6" on Christmas day.
> 
> It may all go away, but with this set up it is starting to look good for somewhere between Macon and I - 20 Northward.



Can we please get that line about 45 miles south of Macon?  25 miles would be fine but 45 is a better cushion!


----------



## southerngentleman (Dec 21, 2010)

Any chance this trends further south???


----------



## Greene728 (Dec 21, 2010)

I hate snow! But if it were to happen on Christmas that would be cool!!!

Fingers crossed........


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

GFS gives a classic SE snow storm from ATL to Athens with 3-4" laid down nicely.... 

UKMET falls in line with the EURO and BOMBS the SE... 

I swear if this goes away between now and Saturday I am not going to be happy.


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

southerngentleman said:


> Any chance this trends further south???



You guys south of Macon need to pull for this thing to bomb out and ride just off the Gulf Coast and head towards JAX or just south of Savanah.

Me presonally I hope the Low rides right over Panama City and loads up on that gulf moisture.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> You guys south of Macon need to pull for this thing to bomb out and ride just off the Gulf Coast and head towards JAX or just south of Savanah.
> 
> Me presonally I hope the Low rides right over Panama City and loads up on that gulf moisture.



In your opinion, what do you feel it will do?

If I have to load the family up and have Christmas in the Bass Pro parking lot in Macon I will!  I ain't scared!


----------



## slip (Dec 21, 2010)

DDD said:


> I swear if this goes away between now and Saturday I am not going to be happy.



the nice folks from woodys may riot in front of your house, if that were to happen after all the people who have their hopes built up now.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

Oh yeah, I see a Winter Weather Thread #2 coming up by Thursday evening!


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 21, 2010)

Ok, it is 11:31!


----------



## DDD (Dec 21, 2010)

Not getting up for the EURO.  I will report in about it in the morning.  My confidence is up due to the run of the GFS.

Night!


----------



## fireman401 (Dec 22, 2010)

*NWS Special Weather Statement*

Well I didn't plan to get up, but a little radio traffic rousted me and I found this text message alert:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-222100-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
359 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY SPREADING A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

AT THIS TIME ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE STATE BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THIS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN PLACE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA AND GAINESVILLE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS GEORGIA...OR THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST TO THE LATEST FORECAST
ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

Some more of the models must be lining up!!!!!!

Come on 1973!!!!!


----------



## Bitteroot (Dec 22, 2010)

I cannot believe I am up at this time to check the weather... have I morphed back into a 12 year old....?


----------



## nickel back (Dec 22, 2010)

Bnathanb1982 said:


> I'm not an expert by any means and don't know a whole lot, but after lurking on the weather boards and on here, it seems that the GFS is the favored model of NWS.  Plus it is easier for them to go with the model that is NOT suggesting snow.  If they forecast rain up until 2 days before and then change it to snow, nobody really remembers they waited until the last minute because folks are happy they got snow.  However if they forecast snow way out and get everyone hyped up and it doesn't pan out(which it usually doesn't), people will talk and cuss them all the way until the next chance of snow.  Snow in the south is a BIG deal and they want to be as sure as possible before going out on a limb.  Of course this just my opinion.



Oh yes Sir you are corrrect


----------



## willbuck (Dec 22, 2010)

Looks like there will be a bunch of snow sleds under the Christmas tree this year.  I might have to run to the local hardware store and get a couple of disc's and save all of the cardboard from under the tree.


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Quick teaser before I head off to work.  Once I get in the office I will write up a bunch and maybe even draw a map.

EURO from last night was a BOMB!!!

Even Tifton Northward is in on the action.  Yes Whitetaco this means you!

NWS in Peachtree City is on board, Birmingham, Greenville - Spartanburg.

Let me tell you something, if the NWS in ATL puts up a SWS 3 days out, you better pay attention.

Snow totals from the EURO last night would be anywhere from 4-8 inches when it is done Sunday morning.  It is a little slower so you might have to spend the night with your inlaws Saturday night if you hang around too long on Christmas day.  

More later.


----------



## Wade Chandler (Dec 22, 2010)

Dang DDD, here you go making it snow and I'm gonna be in Augusta instead of the mountains!!!  Can you at least get it into Burke county so I can hunt in the snow the day after Christmas!?!?

Seriously, you've got me checking this thread all the time.  Thanks for keeping us all abreast of the situation as far in advance as you do.  If this does pan out, by letting everyone know it's coming, you're helping folks make informed travel plans, potentially keeping people off the roads when it could be hazardous, rather than waiting till the last minute like the TV folks who say it caught them by surprise.  So, thanks for taking the time to do all this, and Merry Christmas!


----------



## southerngentleman (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD, thanks for keeping us informed.  My kids were up at 7:00 this morning wanting to know what the Sham-Wow man is saying about the weather.  Keep up the good work.


----------



## spotman (Dec 22, 2010)

Gonna be hard to get any work done today


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Wade Chandler said:


> Dang DDD, here you go making it snow and I'm gonna be in Augusta instead of the mountains!!!  Can you at least get it into Burke county so I can hunt in the snow the day after Christmas!?!?
> 
> Seriously, you've got me checking this thread all the time.  Thanks for keeping us all abreast of the situation as far in advance as you do.  If this does pan out, by letting everyone know it's coming, you're helping folks make informed travel plans, potentially keeping people off the roads when it could be hazardous, rather than waiting till the last minute like the TV folks who say it caught them by surprise.  So, thanks for taking the time to do all this, and Merry Christmas!



Wade, Augusta - Columbia would be ground zero if the EURO verified.  8+ inches.  The mountains are not going to be the sweet spot in this type of set up.

My guess right now is ATL down to Macon over to Augusta - Columbia to just south of Charlotte.

A lot of model runs to go my friend.


----------



## WickedKwik (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD, where's that map you speak of???


----------



## Paymaster (Dec 22, 2010)

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Everyone do yourself a favor and go watch Matthew East blog video this morning.  He is a great forecaster and will explain a lot rather than you guys just taking my word for it.

He helps explain a lot of what you are looking at on the weather maps.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 22, 2010)

8 inches of snow would shut SW Georgia down. But I could still walk in it, and go where I needed to go. Bring it on!


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Again, let me caution you and myself for that matter... this is still a long ways out in weather terms.  

I am trying very hard not to get lost on this "bomb" scenario.  While I sit here and talk about all the good things... there are little pieces to the puzzle that tell me this could be 1-2" or this could be 4"+

So don't call everyone you know and swear to a white Christmas... it's not a lock yet.

It is also why David Chanley and all the t.v. mets are saying flurries for Christmas day.  It is easier to go to all rain that way or increase the amount.


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Atlanta NWS this morning:



> .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
> NEW GFS FALLING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE
> ECMWF IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE CHRISTMAS
> DAY SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
> ...


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Nicodemus said:


> 8 inches of snow would shut SW Georgia down. But I could still walk in it, and go where I needed to go. Bring it on!



Nic,

While the EURO was def. a move in the right direction for you, right now I think you would still be all rain.

I will try and make it happen for you though.


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
528 am cst wed dec 22 2010

.long term...saturday through tuesday.

Well all i can say is that i was skeptical on monday morning...
Hesitant on tuesday morning...and now growing confident this
morning...that santa may be bringing in an extra present on
christmas. As previously discussed over the past few days...the
euro continues with an upper low swinging through south of the
area...with a developing and strengthening surface low during the
day saturday. The hesitation in the forecast yesterday was the
pure fact that the gfs was taking the northern route and not
developing a surface low to the south. Well that has been thrown
out the window and the gfs is very close to the euro solutions.
The 00z gfs was still about 6 hours faster as it does not
intensify the gulf low as much as the euro. However...the 6z gfs
is coming in and is actually a touch slower and further south than
than euro...but is now beginning to intensify the upper low as it
swings into the gulf. The new solution never phases the upper low
and upper trough until well past the area and actually has less
qpf over the area during the day saturday due to the more southern
route.

Have decided to go full fledged with the euro this morning as the
consistency that we look for has now continued for now 54 hours.
That combined with the gfs trends...has allowed for a lot more in
confidence in the forecast. This system would be historic if there
is any accumulation across the forecast area...as it would be the
first time for any accumulation of snow on christmas day. Numerous
trace events have been recorded...but no events have had more than a
trace. Still really too early to talk about accumulation across the
area as the models still provide some issues in regards to where and
how much will the heaviest precipitation. If the euro pans out the
heaviest qpf will be across the south...possibly even south of the
us 80/i-85 corridor saturday afternoon/night. The 00z gfs brings in
the heaviest qpf along and south of the i-59 corridor...with the 06z
gfs even further south. Still quite a ways out to get into these
specifics.Overall look for moisture to work into the area friday night and
then see a possible change over to snow across the north after
midnight and the arrival of santa. The best chances for the snow
will occur after 12z in the north. Temperatures are not going to up
much at all on saturday...especially if the rain/snow is flying out
there. Right now look for the change-over to snow to occur south of
the i-20 corridor by noon and then south of i-85 later afternoon
into the evening. Again this is definitely subject to change over
the next few days...or even hours.

Temperatures behind this system will be cold and possibly even
approach hard freeze criteria once again. Made a few modifications
from models for sunday and went cooler for the area. This may not be
low enough if there is any snow cover from the system on saturday.
Cold temperatures continue through the end of the period along with
dry conditions.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 22, 2010)

Im going to buy a sled now before the mad rush begins!


----------



## Nicodemus (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> Nic,
> 
> While the EURO was def. a move in the right direction for you, right now I think you would still be all rain.
> 
> I will try and make it happen for you though.






Thanks!!


----------



## BBQBOSS (Dec 22, 2010)

After readng this it may be a good thing that i will be in butts county from now until sunday instead of at home in Woodstock.  Hopefully this thang will happen for middle Ga.


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

mewabbithunter said:


> Im going to buy a sled now before the mad rush begins!



Do they even sell sleds in GA?


----------



## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

BBQBOSS said:


> After readng this it may be a good thing that i will be in butts county from now until sunday instead of at home in Woodstock.  Hopefully this thang will happen for middle Ga.



Now you're talking BBQ!


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 22, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> Do they even sell sleds in GA?



Got some nice ones at most of the Ace Hardware stores in North GA area.


----------



## flyingt (Dec 22, 2010)

Ha I have 3 sleds already, but Im gonna buy one to have it sitting under the tree Christmas morning.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM (Dec 22, 2010)

Lets see those maps change to rain..  I've got to work all weekend in that mess.  Rain is easier to deal with.


----------



## K80 (Dec 22, 2010)

So is this thing going to do like all the rest of the events did during the first part of the year and go just over or just under Franklin County?   I remember folks in middle ga having snow/ice while we only had a cold rain here in Franklin County.

I noticed in Firemans post they listed Banks, Madison, Clarke, Wilkes, and Oglethorpe but didn't see any mention of Franklin, Hart, or Elbert.


----------



## deerhunter75 (Dec 22, 2010)

*Snow Maps*


----------



## Dustin Pate (Dec 22, 2010)

If it does verify and snow, Will the warm ground temps the next few days matter very much?

And as I type this a special weather statement just popped on the task bar from the weather channel.


----------



## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> You guys south of Macon need to pull for this thing to bomb out and ride just off the Gulf Coast and head towards JAX or just south of Savanah.
> 
> Me presonally I hope the Low rides right over Panama City and loads up on that gulf moisture.



You must have had a very personal chat with the NAM folks last night looking at the 12z run


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Map from Allan Huffman.

I would extend the mod - heavy snow over to Macon and be sure to include Athens.

Again, as I type this, the GFS is rolling out and I do NOT like the looks of it.  The GFS is flopping around like a 12" spotted bass.


----------



## mewabbithunter (Dec 22, 2010)

Any updates?


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

mewabbithunter said:


> Any updates?



Yeah, the 12Z GFS looks more like the EURO model, but not quite.  Its sorta like Georgia and Georgia Tech's football team.  They are in the same state, but only one has gotten it right 9 out of 10 times.    One looks really ugly.  


The EURO comes out around 1ish... see you cats then.

I am telling you, try your best not to get your hopes up.  It still could leave us hanging.


----------



## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

12Z GFS Operational model is still a snow storm for Georgia folks... very nice.  But something inside me just says its a little off.

The EURO should make me feel better.  

For sure the GFS is getting more and more in line with the EURO's way of thinking.

The other thing I like is usually with in 48-72 hours of the actual storm, the track will lock down, right now Macon over to Augusta looks to be the sweet spot and points north of there.


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> 12Z GFS Operational model is still a snow storm for Georgia folks... very nice.  But something inside me just says its a little off.
> 
> The EURO should make me feel better.
> 
> ...



When you say Macon, is there anyway possible that Warner Robins/Bonaire area is out of the question?  We are talking 15 minute drive, 20 minutes tops.


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## Ruger#3 (Dec 22, 2010)

Beagles and rabbit hunting in snow, its been awhile. Bring it!!!


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## K80 (Dec 22, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> When you say Macon, is there anyway possible that Warner Robins/Bonaire area is out of the question?  We are talking 15 minute drive, 20 minutes tops.



You hush up, ya hear! If he pulls it down there for yall, that means he pulls it way from us.


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## higgy (Dec 22, 2010)

Thanks DDD and others for all the updates. All your info has alot of attention. Esp those who might have to get out and work in it.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> When you say Macon, is there anyway possible that Warner Robins/Bonaire area is out of the question?  We are talking 15 minute drive, 20 minutes tops.



To early to say.

It will be a sharp cut off though from heavy to nothing, going south.


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> To early to say.
> 
> It will be a sharp cut off though from heavy to nothing, going south.



Keep us posted DDD.  When does the new model come out?


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

Forecast from Wunderground.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

This out of Mobile / Pensecola



> ...A RARE WINTRY WEATHER PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
> GULF COAST LATE CHRISTMAS DAY...
> 
> A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HUG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
> ...


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## Sultan of Slime (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD, OX and Hugh are all the talk on FB right now!! Yall should feel speshul!


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## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2010)

Some interesting comparisons being talked about



> Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity pointed out that the amount and intensity of thunderstorms over California and the Southwest into Wednesday night may lend a clue as to the storm's nature in the East.
> 
> "A severe weather outbreak in California means an intense storm system, one that may cut northward along the East Coast with snow early next week," Margusity stated.
> 
> ...



I know name dropping 1993 like that is probably more for dramatization than anything, but still neat they bring it up.


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

Where is ole MC at anyways?  I like to hear his perspective as well!


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Some interesting comparisons being talked about
> 
> 
> 
> I know name dropping 1993 like that is probably more for dramatization than anything, but still neat they bring it up.



Plus a little drama never hurt anybody!


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## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> Where is ole MC at anyways?  I like to hear his perspective as well!



That's a good dang question...everyone oughta PM him and see what's goin on I think


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## Sultan of Slime (Dec 22, 2010)

Ok DDD I have installed snow tires on my new wheelchair. So if you bring  me some snow I will make you a youtube video on the steep hill out back!!


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## pbradley (Dec 22, 2010)

Sultan of Slime said:


> Ok DDD I have installed snow tires on my new wheelchair. So if you bring  me some snow I will make you a youtube video on the steep hill out back!!



no chains?


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## bigox911 (Dec 22, 2010)

Sultan of Slime said:


> Ok DDD I have installed snow tires on my new wheelchair. So if you bring  me some snow I will make you a youtube video on the steep hill out back!!


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## Bitteroot (Dec 22, 2010)

Sultan of Slime said:


> Ok DDD I have installed snow tires on my new wheelchair. So if you bring  me some snow I will make you a youtube video on the steep hill out back!!



You drive.. I'll ride....


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## Sultan of Slime (Dec 22, 2010)

pbradley said:


> no chains?



No chains needed when you have the secret formula:


(fatboy in wheelchair + snow + 75 degree slope)= EPIC Hey Yall Watch This Moment!!


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## Keebs (Dec 22, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> That's a good dang question...everyone oughta PM him and see what's goin on I think


 GREAT idea!



Sultan of Slime said:


> Ok DDD I have installed snow tires on my new wheelchair. So if you bring  me some snow I will make you a youtube video on the steep hill out back!!






Sultan of Slime said:


> No chains needed when you have the secret formula:
> 
> 
> (fatboy in wheelchair + snow + 75 degree slope)= EPIC Hey Yall Watch This Moment!!


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## jcountry (Dec 22, 2010)

Someone mentioned that 1993 superstorm....  I will always remember that one-it was crazy!   I was at georgia southern at the time, and I remember waking up to what I thought sounded like a tornado.  I looked outside to see all the pine trees blowing around like blades of grass-and it was snowing!  50 degrees surface temp and snow-wow!

I remember billboards and grain silos getting blown down all over the place, and crazy wind.  I think the winds spiked at 80 or so in savannah.  It was absolutely nuts!   The really crazy part is that no on seemed to know it was coming.

-I am all for snow,  but I think I would like to pass on another superstorm.


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## Nicodemus (Dec 22, 2010)

jcountry said:


> Someone mentioned that 1993 superstorm....  I will always remember that one-it was crazy!   I was at georgia southern at the time, and I remember waking up to what I thought sounded like a tornado.  I looked outside to see all the pine trees blowing around like blades of grass-and it was snowing!  50 degrees surface temp and snow-wow!
> 
> I remember billboards and grain silos getting blown down all over the place, and crazy wind.  I think the winds spiked at 80 or so in savannah.  It was absolutely nuts!   The really crazy part is that no on seemed to know it was coming.
> 
> -I am all for snow,  but I think I would like to pass on another superstorm.





I remember that one very well. I spent the weekend workin` in it. Climbin` ice covered poles ain`t much fun, in a blizzard.


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## pbradley (Dec 22, 2010)

jcountry said:


> Someone mentioned that 1993 superstorm....  I will always remember that one-it was crazy!   I was at georgia southern at the time, and I remember waking up to what I thought sounded like a tornado.  I looked outside to see all the pine trees blowing around like blades of grass-and it was snowing!  50 degrees surface temp and snow-wow!
> 
> I remember billboards and grain silos getting blown down all over the place, and crazy wind.  I think the winds spiked at 80 or so in savannah.  It was absolutely nuts!   The really crazy part is that no on seemed to know it was coming.
> 
> -I am all for snow,  but I think I would like to pass on another superstorm.





Nicodemus said:


> I remember that one very well. I spent the weekend workin` in it. Climbin` ice covered poles ain`t much fun, in a blizzard.




First time in my life I ever went out in the back yard and did a snow dance the week before.


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## whitetaco02 (Dec 22, 2010)

Sultan of Slime said:


> No chains needed when you have the secret formula:
> 
> 
> (fatboy in wheelchair + snow + 75 degree slope+ a little debbie hangin in front of me)= EPIC Hey Yall Watch This Moment!!



There, I fixed it for ya!


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## Sultan of Slime (Dec 22, 2010)

whitetaco02 said:


> There, I fixed it for ya!



Thats how I get back up the hill


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

bigox911 said:


> Some interesting comparisons being talked about
> 
> 
> 
> I know name dropping 1993 like that is probably more for dramatization than anything, but still neat they bring it up.



Well, what can I say????

EURO tells everyone from the mountains to Tifton to get out their snow shovels.

It is 1993 all over again.

I need a cigarette.


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## WickedKwik (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> Well, what can I say????
> 
> EURO tells everyone from the mountains to Tifton to get out their snow shovels.
> 
> ...


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

God Bless America!

So what you are looking at is the Low over Panama City, if you draw a line straight down from the north pole to Tifton that is where this massive upper level of cold air comes down from like a magnet.

The Low Pressure is like a powder keg, and when it opens up it explodes with snow.  

Whitetaco... Central GA on this run is the epic winner... but everyone is burried... unreal moisture amounts.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

This would be EPIC!!!!

My Lord.


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## jcountry (Dec 22, 2010)

Thanks for your insights...  You seem to really know your stuff.  I do have to ask:  What's up with the Shamwow guy and Glenn Burn's head?   That right there is funny, I don't care who you are!

-Is there a backstory for that one?


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## pbradley (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> This would be EPIC!!!!
> 
> My Lord.



Breathe...


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## slip (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> This would be EPIC!!!!
> 
> My Lord.



dont jinx us!


a cold rainy christmas day would suck.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Sultan of Slime said:


> DDD, OX and Hugh are all the talk on FB right now!! Yall should feel speshul!



That's just my good looks.  I can't speak about Ox or Hugh though.


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## Inspector (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> Map from Allan Huffman.
> 
> I would extend the mod - heavy snow over to Macon and be sure to include Athens.
> 
> Again, as I type this, the GFS is rolling out and I do NOT like the looks of it.  The GFS is flopping around like a 12" spotted bass.



That ain't gonna happen.   I would expect that north of I-20 over to and up maybe I-77 (to the north and west of those) would be the sweet spot.   Won't get as close to the coast as he is showing.


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## cejay825 (Dec 22, 2010)

DDD said:


> That's just my good looks.  I can't speak about Ox or Hugh though.




Somebody give me the facebook  link !!!!!!!


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Ok, so now that I have my breath...

The EURO which has preached this storm for 3 days now, preaches a much wetter solution and a much colder one.  It has not waivered one bit.  The GFS solution is moving towards the EURO solution and quite frankly this time tomorrow, if things hold, I would imagine we will be under a winter storm watch for Christmas Eve Night through midnight Christmas Day.

I am almost (not quite) to the point of saying, its not a matter of if, its now a matter of how much.  

This system is the very system that is pounding California right now.  Once that system comes over the midwest states, through weather balloons, airplane data and ground service radars and imaging the data will be fed into these models and a better handle on where that energy is going will be made clear.

My opinion is that tonight into tomorrow about this time, the models will get a good handle on what is happening and confidence should grow.  

It will be interesting to see the discussions out of the National Weather service offices.  They should start rolling out between now  and 4:30.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

Inspector said:


> That ain't gonna happen.   I would expect that north of I-20 over to and up maybe I-77 (to the north and west of those) would be the sweet spot.   Won't get as close to the coast as he is showing.



Current modeling does not support your statement.  

Sorry to disappoint.

In fact, the storm gets off the S.C. coast and bombs North Carolina with almost 2 feet of snow.


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## cejay825 (Dec 22, 2010)

Frank Strait said Rock Hill SC will be the center of the storm ???


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

This is what I see in the way of the EURO and the EURO only.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

cejay825 said:


> Frank Strait said Rock Hill SC will be the center of the storm ???



I think he is talking about the center of the Low.  However, that would be wrong IMO, I would say the center is Panama City. 

Just my .02


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## Inspector (Dec 22, 2010)

Interesting read from The Weather Channel guys.   Guess they are coming on board.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weat.../christmas-week-winter-storm_2010-12-20?role=


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## fireman401 (Dec 22, 2010)

Ho Ho HO!!!!  Bring on the SNOW!  

A child at heart looking for another 1973!!!!!

Merry Christmas to all!!

Thanks DDD.  Keep up the great work.


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## Keebs (Dec 22, 2010)

slip said:


> dont jinx us!
> 
> 
> a cold rainy christmas day would suck.


 yeah it would!


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

FYI, about to start Winter Weather Thread II.

Everyone move over there when I post it up,  so we don't take up so much band width with this long thread.


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## DDD (Dec 22, 2010)

When a mod finds this... lock it down please!


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## Nicodemus (Dec 22, 2010)

Done.


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