# Winter Weather Thread 2013-2014 II



## DDD

Since you bunch of weather weenies  pushed the first one over 1000 post, we are going to have a second round of Winter Weather Threading.

May you all see some white stuff fly this winter!


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## Nitram4891

So whats happening tonight/tomorrow DDD?


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## Miguel Cervantes

toot..........oops.........scuse me. 

Yeah, what's it gonna do in my back yard tonight?


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## DDD

Nitram4891 said:


> So whats happening tonight/tomorrow DDD?



I have to be honest.  The temps in front of the precip are no where near freezing.  

However, the extreme, of the most extreme cold I have ever seen since becoming a weather follower, is going to rush in faster than I have ever seen if it follows what all the models are saying is going to happen.

For that reason it leaves me with some ???

Thoughts in my head?

1.  Is the RPM simulated radar to be believed?  If so, I think we are looking at one really bad driving situation for Macon northward.

2.  Flash freezing.  Is that stuff for real?    Don't know.  0 experience.

3.  Will the wind be blowing so hard that it will dry out whatever type of precip falls from the sky?

4.  Does the general public realize how serious the cold is going to be?

5. Do our school systems realize how serious this cold and the windchill is going to be?  Buses, buildings, kids at bus stops, walking to and from classes...


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## Jeff Raines

DDD said:


> I have to be honest.  The temps in front of the precip are no where near freezing.
> 
> However, the extreme, of the most extreme cold I have ever seen since becoming a weather follower, is going to rush in faster than I have ever seen if it follows what all the models are saying is going to happen.
> 
> For that reason it leaves me with some ???
> 
> Thoughts in my head?
> 
> 1.  Is the RPM simulated radar to be believed?  If so, I think we are looking at one really bad driving situation for Macon northward.
> 
> 2.  Flash freezing.  Is that stuff for real?    Don't know.  0 experience.
> 
> 3.  Will the wind be blowing so hard that it will dry out whatever type of precip falls from the sky?
> 
> 4.  Does the general public realize how serious the cold is going to be?
> 
> 5. Do our school systems realize how serious this cold and the windchill is going to be?  Buses, buildings, kids at bus stops, walking to and from classes...



Scariest post I've ever read here


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## Miguel Cervantes

Jeff Raines said:


> Scariest post I've ever read here


That means you missed my 14 paragraph post in the other thread...


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## whitetaco02

This whole weather thing has me seriously bummed out!

I really really want to see some snow!  It is always Macon northwards!


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That means you missed my 14 paragraph post in the other thread...



I have to be honest I missed it too.

Repost it you idjit!


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## Jeff Raines

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That means you missed my 14 paragraph post in the other thread...



14?
You talk too much


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## DDD

NWS in PTC just posted on Twitter:  Fill your car's gas tank to at least half full to prevent freezing in these cool temps.

Cool temps?  How about record cold!  

Rolling my eyes.


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## PappyHoel

hope the power stays on!  I have plenty of fire wood, blankets etc.  I normally leave for work at 5:45 am, I may work from home tomorrow if it looks sketchy.


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## Fro1911nut

Folks with Heat pumps you might want to flip that switch aux/emergency heat make sure those heat strips/gas burners are working.


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## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> NWS in PTC just posted on Twitter:  Fill your car's gas tank to at least half full to prevent freezing in these cool temps.
> 
> Cool temps?  How about record cold!
> 
> Rolling my eyes.



That's very true, I'm heading to the gas station in a few.


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## PappyHoel

Fro1911nut said:


> Folks with Heat pumps you might want to flip that switch aux/emergency heat make sure those heat strips/gas burners are working.



Tell me more please.  Where do I need to look?  I've only been in this house a year and I'm new to heat pumps.


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## grunt0331

What kind of wind speeds will we be looking at?


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## PappyHoel

Where's Resica?  I saw this on reddit and thought of him.


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## DDD

grunt0331 said:


> What kind of wind speeds will we be looking at?



15-20MPH with gust to 25.


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## Patriot44

We busted a half cord of wood this morning. It'll be sunny and warm now.


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## elfiii

Data. Must have data.


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## Resica

Everybody relax. No panic attacks. It'll be ok.!


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## Resica

PappyHoel said:


> Where's Resica?  I saw this on reddit and thought of him.


And that's the beauty of it all!!


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## Resica

whitetaco02 said:


> This whole weather thing has me seriously bummed out!
> 
> I really really want to see some snow!  It is always Macon northwards!



Macon, when? It rarely snows in Macon.


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## JonathanG2013

I woul rather have the snow than the freezing rain. Freezing rain is a transportation nightmare.


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## PappyHoel

Here's my forecast from NOAA



> Tonight Rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain. Low around 23. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
> Monday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


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## rhbama3

My wife is supposed to fly from Albany to Atlanta to Denver tomorrow. Has the Atlanta airport issued any statement regarding  flights in the morning yet?


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## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Data. Must have data.


Here's the scoop for your neck of the woods. around 9pm is the last time you'll see a respectable number above freezing for a few days. After 9pm tonight the temps go south. All while the rain (or something) is falling and the wind is howling.


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## Fro1911nut

PappyHoel said:


> Tell me more please.  Where do I need to look?  I've only been in this house a year and I'm new to heat pumps.



Look on your thermostat..."should" be a setting for AUX or Emergency heat.....some do it automatically when it gets too cold outside to keep the outside unit from freezing up


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## Miguel Cervantes

rhbama3 said:


> My wife is supposed to fly from Albany to Atlanta to Denver tomorrow. Has the Atlanta airport issued any statement regarding  flights in the morning yet?


Nobody is issuing anything about anywhere, that is the crazy thing about this. It's like they are all thinking, "Well, lets just wait and see". I just got done sending a good pm to my county commissioner on FB regarding school starting back on Tuesday morning. Do they really think that Diesel engines that don't have block heaters will crank at 6 degrees? Do they really expect kids to stand on the corner in the dark and wait on a bus that may or may not have cranked in 6 degree weather? Do they think the heating systems in the schools are sufficient to keep up with the extreme load that will be put on them? Do they think the water pipes will fair well (with above ground double backflow preventers) at 6 degrees?

It's like nobody is using their gray matter to think through the possibilities on this one.


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## david w.

The moral of the story is,Its gonna be COLD.If you read this its gonna be cold where you live.


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## GA DAWG

Yall remember those pets to!!!! Gonna be cold. Colder than many on here have ever saw!!!!


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## Jeff Raines

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nobody is issuing anything about anywhere, that is the crazy thing about this. It's like they are all thinking, "Well, lets just wait and see". I just got done sending a good pm to my county commissioner on FB regarding school starting back on Tuesday morning. Do they really think that Diesel engines that don't have block heaters will crank at 6 degrees? Do they really expect kids to stand on the corner in the dark and wait on a bus that may or may not have cranked in 6 degree weather? Do they think the heating systems in the schools are sufficient to keep up with the extreme load that will be put on them? Do they think the water pipes will fair well (with above ground double backflow preventers) at 6 degrees?
> 
> It's like nobody is using their gray matter to think through the possibilities on this one.


Regarding the buses,my wife is a driver here in Paulding.
All week long the buses will be parked at fueling stations so the mechanics can get them cranked early every morning.


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## Resica

david w. said:


> The moral of the story is,Its gonna be COLD.If you read this its gonna be cold where you live.



Nice!!


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## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nobody is issuing anything about anywhere, that is the crazy thing about this. It's like they are all thinking, "Well, lets just wait and see". I just got done sending a good pm to my county commissioner on FB regarding school starting back on Tuesday morning. Do they really think that Diesel engines that don't have block heaters will crank at 6 degrees? Do they really expect kids to stand on the corner in the dark and wait on a bus that may or may not have cranked in 6 degree weather? Do they think the heating systems in the schools are sufficient to keep up with the extreme load that will be put on them? Do they think the water pipes will fair well (with above ground double backflow preventers) at 6 degrees?
> 
> It's like nobody is using their gray matter to think through the possibilities on this one.




You left one thing out.  Buses that have not been cranked in 2+ weeks! 

I watched the Cobb county head honcho say yesterday on the news that they were NOT closing school for extreme temps.  I thought... LOL... that guy's email just got busy.  Or maybe not???  The general public usually has no clue about extreme weather events.

The reason they don't know is media outlets as well as the NWS in ATL is reluctant to "scare" everyone.  

If they send the kids to school... just hang on tight for the news reports about the busted pipes and the kids who didnt get on the school bus in the extreme cold.

I remember when I was in college at ABAC somewhere around January or February of 1996 extreme cold dug south and it busted the pipes in our residence hall.

This will knock that in the dirt.


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## lbzdually

I've got my gas logs lit, got a little buddy heater to heat the crawlspace where my hot water and exposed pipes are.  I've got my grill gassed up and ready to cook on if power goes out and my generator is gassed up to run 3-4 days straight.  I just wish we had installed that wood furnace in our basement this spring like I had planned.


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## DDD

Here are the TEMPS that the NAM is spitting out.  This would be for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.

Yep, that's a 4 over my house.


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## Rockdale Buck

Cant wait to go get on the bus  Tuesday morning!


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## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> I've got my gas logs lit, got a little buddy heater to heat the crawlspace where my hot water and exposed pipes are.  I've got my grill gassed up and ready to cook on if power goes out and my generator is gassed up to run 3-4 days straight.  I just wish we had installed that wood furnace in our basement this spring like I had planned.


Good luck getting a propane grill to work at 6 degrees. -47 is the liquid state (no pressure) 50 on up are good temps for gas production (good pressure) At near 0 degrees the neutralization process between gas state and liquid state begins. Plus, I wouldn't ask anyone to stand outside and cook on a grill in these temps..


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> You left one thing out.  Buses that have not been cranked in 2+ weeks!
> 
> I watched the Cobb county head honcho say yesterday on the news that they were NOT closing school for extreme temps.  I thought... LOL... that guy's email just got busy.  Or maybe not???  The general public usually has no clue about extreme weather events.
> 
> The reason they don't know is media outlets as well as the NWS in ATL is reluctant to "scare" everyone.
> 
> If they send the kids to school... just hang on tight for the news reports about the busted pipes and the kids who didnt get on the school bus in the extreme cold.
> 
> I remember when I was in college at ABAC somewhere around January or February of 1996 extreme cold dug south and it busted the pipes in our residence hall.
> 
> This will knock that in the dirt.


They are idiots. It wasn't too many years ago that most metro counties went from double backflow preventers in water vaults to mandatory above ground (exposed) double backflow preventers on their water main services to the buildings. The pretty ice sculptures around metro atlanta over the next day or two are going to be spectacular. 

I wonder how hard frozen egg is to get off of a county officials face?


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## CharlesH

Jeff Raines said:


> Regarding the buses,my wife is a driver here in Paulding.
> All week long the buses will be parked at fueling stations so the mechanics can get them cranked early every morning.



So I guess they are planning for a go with school hen Jeff?  I know they had all of the buses at Shelton cranked for at least half the day Friday while we were there. I just can't imagine the schools heating enough to be there with as cold as it's gonna get. The halls at most of our schools aren't even heated. I can only imagine what that will do to all the pipes.


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## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Good luck getting a propane grill to work at 6 degrees. -47 is the liquid state (no pressure) 50 on up are good temps for gas production (good pressure) At near 0 degrees the neutralization process between gas state and liquid state begins. Plus, I wouldn't ask anyone to stand outside and cook on a grill in these temps..



Plan B is run a crockpot and hot plate off the generator.  I can put the grill in the garage until time to use and open the garage door to vent.


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## Jeff Raines

CharlesH said:


> So I guess they are planning for a go with school hen Jeff?  I know they had all of the buses at Shelton cranked for at least half the day Friday while we were there. I just can't imagine the schools heating enough to be there with as cold as it's gonna get. The halls at most of our schools aren't even heated. I can only imagine what that will do to all the pipes.



So far school is still on.

49 degrees in north paulding right now


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## GoldDot40

Was -4 in 1982 and -8 in 1985 where I grew up. The difference is, THIS TIME, I'll be out working in it.


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## the HEED!

15-20 mph winds with gusts to 30, what the heck man, thats gonna be brutal. Whats that gonna do to our wildlife? Whats that gonna do to trees pushed by that kinda wind in that kinda cold?


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## Jeff Raines

the HEED! said:


> Whats that gonna do to trees pushed by that kinda wind in that kinda cold?



Crackle,pop and snap


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## JosephSparks

DDD said:


> Here are the TEMPS that the NAM is spitting out.  This would be for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.
> 
> Yep, that's a 4 over my house.



Those people on the Florida panhandle are in for a very cold morning for them.


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## JosephSparks

CharlesH said:


> So I guess they are planning for a go with school hen Jeff?  I know they had all of the buses at Shelton cranked for at least half the day Friday while we were there. I just can't imagine the schools heating enough to be there with as cold as it's gonna get. The halls at most of our schools aren't even heated. I can only imagine what that will do to all the pipes.



Murray Co is closed now.  A lot of Metro counties have a teacher workday tomorrow, I suspect that the slightest bit of ice will shut them down, the admins don't want to have to work that day anyways.


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## beretta

It's 12 dergrees at my house now


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## JosephSparks

Does anyone put any stock into the fact it never got to the highs today in the state?  Does that even matter/help/hurt?


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## Miguel Cervantes

JosephSparks said:


> Does anyone put any stock into the fact it never got to the highs today in the state?  Does that even matter/help/hurt?


Patience, it will get there even later in the evening. As the front gets closer drawing that warm moist air up out of the gulf our temps will actually climb right before they start the sharp plummet downwards.


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## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's the scoop for your neck of the woods. around 9pm is the last time you'll see a respectable number above freezing for a few days. After 9pm tonight the temps go south. All while the rain (or something) is falling and the wind is howling.
> 
> View attachment 769298



It's 42 in the carport right now which means it's 38 out in the world and it's going down.

Should have gone after the generator. 



JosephSparks said:


> Does anyone put any stock into the fact it never got to the highs today in the state?  Does that even matter/help/hurt?



It makes the ground colder which means it will freeze quicker which means more accumulation.


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## NGa.MtnHunter

48 degrees here and a strong wind is coming out of the south, hard to believe its gonna be single digit temps tomorrow morning. The weatherman is covering all the bases up here, freezing rain/ice/sleet/snow is suppose to hit here somewhere around 11pm tonight.


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## the HEED!

man Im battling a bad cold and having to fetch wood in this weather surely wont help things. 

I wouldnt imagine county school admins would expect students to wait on the bus in 5-10 degree weather would they? 

Again, what effects will this take on wildlife? Id imagine any wounded/sick/elderly game or animals wouldnt survive as they arent tested in that kind of cold much. Will it have effect on the deer herds? I remember some years ago about bad fawn kills in hard freezes????


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## Paint Brush

DDD said:


> You left one thing out.  Buses that have not been cranked in 2+ weeks!
> 
> I watched the Cobb county head honcho say yesterday on the news that they were NOT closing school for extreme temps.  I thought... LOL... that guy's email just got busy.  Or maybe not???  The general public usually has no clue about extreme weather events.
> 
> The reason they don't know is media outlets as well as the NWS in ATL is reluctant to "scare" everyone.
> 
> If they send the kids to school... just hang on tight for the news reports about the busted pipes and the kids who didnt get on the school bus in the extreme cold.
> 
> I remember when I was in college at ABAC somewhere around January or February of 1996 extreme cold dug south and it busted the pipes in our residence hall.
> 
> This will knock that in the dirt.



 One other thing the local officials aren't thinking about is stalled cars. I guarantee you a lot of people haven't checked the antifreeze in their cars. They will start up leave home and when the air starts flowing through the radiator it freezes up and runs hot. There will be stalls every where in Atlanta Tuesday morning.


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## Dutch

55* here in Houston county with t-storms tonite...methinks the weather people don't know what the heck they are doing


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## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Should have gone after the generator.


You're kidding me right?


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## GA DAWG

Raining now in the 30028.


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## Sugar Plum

I don't plan on having Hayley go to school Mon or Tues. It's just nuts to think they'll be prepared to handle this situation! 

I have to be at work at 8am Tuesday morn. Sure hope I can get there!


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## david w.

Bibb county schools are closed tomorrow.


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## whitetaco02

Resica said:


> Macon, when? It rarely snows in Macon.



See post #4.

Previous years it is always Macon.


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## Rockdale Buck

Rain is building on backside of front and the cold air is starting to move faster.  Starting to look like it might come together! I sure hope so!!!!


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## todd03blown

Rockdale Buck said:


> Rain is building on backside of front and the cold air is starting to move faster.  Starting to look like it might come together! I sure hope so!!!!


Really? Sweeeeeeeet!! Waiting with baited breath for DDD and Miguel and their latest updates


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## whitetaco02

If any of you all up in north GA get snow please take pictures of the snow and post them up for those of us down here that never get any.


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## Rockdale Buck

Im looking at other blogs and such, most recent GFS had better snowfall with it.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Some of you are confused about the mechanics of this system. It is a fairly strong upper level low being spun strongly on the backside by an extremely strong cold blast of artic air. Don't be confused by the current temperatures. In fact, expect them to launch up into the 50's as the main body of gulf moisture is drawn over our state. Once we get into that moisture and the actual front get's to us you will think you have dropped an anvil on your foot, because that is how drastic the changes in temperature from warm moist gulf air to fast moving extremely cold artic air will be. Any moisture that this cold air is mixing with will be of a frozen nature, whether it be snow, sleet or freezing rain. 

Here is a radar screen shot that will show you clearly where we are, where the main column of moist gulf air is (warmer temps) and exactly where the line of delineation is for the cold front. 

If you go to bed tonight thinking this is a bust, shame on you. It is far from it.


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## Resica

whitetaco02 said:


> See post #4.
> 
> Previous years it is always Macon.


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## Dutch

May be bad for ya'll up in North Ga., but its going to be a non event down here in the Southern part of the state. It might get a tad nippy behind the front, but there is not going to be any type of winter apocalypse.


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## PappyHoel

Dawson cty schools are closed tomorrow.  The wife is upset by this news.


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## TurkeyKiller12

I'm ready for this flash freeze thingy. I've heard of flash floods and before today I only heard of a PDS watch being used with Tornado watches. Well that changed today up north. Bring it, I'm ready!


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## blood on the ground

I'm bored up here on the roof! I'm going to stager down the ladder for some food now!


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## Robbie101

40* in downtown Monroe.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> 40* in downtown Monroe.


Wait til it hits the 50's then you'll know it's getting close.


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## Bitteroot

I'm goin up on top of Chestnut knob and wait this out.....


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## Miguel Cervantes

Bitteroot said:


> I'm goin up on top of Chestnut knob and wait this out.....


Make sure you cell phone is charged, we want live pics of this.


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## Robbie101

miguel cervantes said:


> wait til it hits the 50's then you'll know it's getting close.



10-4


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## NGa.MtnHunter

45 windy and a light rain just started.


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## Bitteroot

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure you cell phone is charged, we want live pics of this.



Bust......


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## Rockdale Buck

72 people viewing!


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## TurkeyKiller12

50.4 here in 30176. NWS out of B'ham says no one back in Miss. is reporting any wintry precip behind the front passing through so far. This was an update that was given around 7 pm EST. According to them it's looking a quick warm up, rain, and then COLD. No wintry precip. About the only dusting we'll see is someone goes and cleans dead eye eddie's coffee table. I'm sure that thing has got a half inch of dust on it. lol


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## TurkeyKiller12

Bitteroot said:


> Bust......



Yep! That's kind of a touchy word here though!


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## Fro1911nut

NWS in Bham posted this not long ago...its coming 

US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
645PM WEATHER UPDATE:

The cold front passed thru Tuscaloosa at 630pm with a peak wind gust of 43 mph! Front should be near downtown Birmingham around 730pm.

Still only seeing light rain across the area right now as the colder air is lagging behind the front. One thing we are noticing is that the freezing line is having a bit of trouble catching up to the precipitation. If this trend continues, then impacts could be lessened across Central Alabama. We'll be watching conditions closely and will continue to post updates thru the evening.


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## blood on the ground

I missed something!


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## TurkeyKiller12

Fro1911nut said:


> NWS in Bham posted this not long ago...its coming
> 
> US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
> 645PM WEATHER UPDATE:
> 
> The cold front passed thru Tuscaloosa at 630pm with a peak wind gust of 43 mph! Front should be near downtown Birmingham around 730pm.
> 
> Still only seeing light rain across the area right now as the colder air is lagging behind the front. One thing we are noticing is that the freezing line is having a bit of trouble catching up to the precipitation. If this trend continues, then impacts could be lessened across Central Alabama. We'll be watching conditions closely and will continue to post updates thru the evening.



Oh me! Where's the clean up crew? This thread will dead until the next event here in about 2 hours. What's that???? Thought I heard the word BUST echoing through here!


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## Matthew6

Bitteroot said:


> Bust......


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## Sugar Plum

Pouring here! And getting COLD!


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## lagrangedave

Touch or tackle?


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## Hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> I missed something!



It'll be OK bro


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## panfried0419

36 in Pendergrass


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## Dutch

Open the door and walking outside is still the best method of 'predicting' the weather.


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## Bitteroot

Light rain and warm I the Valley.....

Bout time for Downton Abbey though.....


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## K80

So just how dangerous is it going to be to head out exit 160 off I85 down to scottish rite for Grants chemo at leaving out at 8 am?


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## Georgesur

46 here in Fayetteville light rain


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## NGa.MtnHunter

Bitteroot said:


> Light rain and warm I the Valley.....
> 
> Bout time for Downton Abbey though.....



Better get up on Chestnut or Horn Mtn, snow lible to cover you up in the valley.


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## Bitteroot

NGa.MtnHunter said:


> Better get up on Chestnut or Horn Mtn, snow lible to cover you up in the valley.



Me and you gotta yak.....


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## the HEED!

local channels starting to scroll closings now


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## PappyHoel

NOAA is saying ice now for my back yard.  Uh oh...



> Tonight: Windy. Rain in the evening...then rain...sleet likely...chance of snow showers and freezing rain likely after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Wind chill readings around 10.
> 
> Monday: Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of snow showers in the morning. Windy. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill readings around 5 below zero.


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## todd03blown

PappyHoel said:


> NOAA is saying ice now for my back yard.  Uh oh...



Where is this at? Are you in N. GA?


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## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> Where is this at? Are you in N. GA?



That's Dawsonville


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## todd03blown

PappyHoel said:


> That's Dawsonville


Thanks! I am in Canton, so I was curious how close that was to me.


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## the HEED!

im skeeeeerd


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## NGa.MtnHunter

Bitteroot said:


> Me and you gotta yak.....



Alrighty.


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## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> Thanks! I am in Canton, so I was curious how close that was to me.



Here's canton.



> Tonight Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet likely between 4am and 5am, then rain and sleet likely, possibly mixed with snow after 5am. Low around 24. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
> Monday A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


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## shakey gizzard

Looks like alots gunna depend on the winds.


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## DDD

K80 said:


> So just how dangerous is it going to be to head out exit 160 off I85 down to scottish rite for Grants chemo at leaving out at 8 am?



Obviously we will have to wait and see how much falls out of the sky, but if enough falls out the roads are going to be sure enough slick.

Also the wind blowing will be a key to drying out the roads before they freeze over.


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## DDD

Dutch said:


> 55* here in Houston county with t-storms tonite...methinks the weather people don't know what the heck they are doing





Let me know what your temp is tomorrow night about this time.


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## the HEED!

Its global warming!


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## DDD

NWS in Huntsville had a temp of 44° and when the front passed through they went to 35° in one hour.


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## todd03blown

DDD said:


> NWS in Huntsville had a temp of 44° and when the front passed through they went to 35° in one hour.


Dang! Substantial drop in a such a short period of time.


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## Bitteroot

Is this 2010?   This is isn't 2010...


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## lbzdually

DDD said:


> NWS in Huntsville had a temp of 44° and when the front passed through they went to 35° in one hour.



I drove into Northern Kentucky then turned around and stopped the same gas station both ways.  Temp on compass on truck was 72 going up and 45 coming back.  Less than an hour and 20 miles away.


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## deerbandit

It's gone from 45 degrees to 50 degrees in Dallas in the past hour and half. Why do I have a feeling the bottom is about to drop out of it? This is going to be interesting tonight.


----------



## fireman401

Bitteroot said:


> Is this 2010?   This is isn't 2010...




I know that..just trying to help a lost weather watcher out.


----------



## Lindseys Grandpa

Coweta County schools closed tomorrow 
And Tuesday. My Grand-daughter happy happy


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Henry County canceled schools monday and tuesday!!! 


_Posted  from  Gon.com App for Android_


----------



## the HEED!

leave those faucets drippin' 

watch those space heaters

dont over pack the fireplace, burn a cleaner log too

every body be safe


----------



## Jeff Raines

Wind just started gusting in north paulding but temp still rising.

Just got the word Paulding County schools are closed tomorrow Jan.6


----------



## todd03blown

Cherokee county schools closed on Monday.


----------



## NGa.MtnHunter

Temp has dropped 8 degrees here in the past half hour.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Temp. has dropped 8 degrees here in the last hour. Flash Freeze Oh and B'ham just cancelled the WWA next door. Another BUST!


----------



## Jeff Raines

Temp is down to 44 now.Rainfall total at midnight is .05


----------



## NGa.MtnHunter

Be a lot of truck/car doors froze shut in the morning.....


----------



## todd03blown

Wind is really picking up in Canton right now.


----------



## NGa.MtnHunter

33 degrees and snow here.


----------



## lbzdually

Snowing sleeting raining in Chatsworth.


----------



## YankeeRedneck

It's 40 degrees in western new york and 38 here in atlanta!
This is crazy I know that will change soon.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

58 here in Washington county, slight breeze, drizzling rain off and on.


----------



## JonathanG2013

It stinks that the cold front moved in to late to change the rain into winter precipitation.


----------



## panfried0419

Alright it's a bust. When is the next winter event predicted to happen?


----------



## shakey gizzard

panfried0419 said:


> Alright it's a bust. When is the next winter event predicted to happen?



My 5 bucks is still on the 9th!


----------



## david w.

Ight.No ice.....Yet.Waiting on these temps to drop,and then we'll have a mess!!!!!


----------



## bml

It's by no means a bust as far as temps are concerned. I am sure we will receive an official update from DDD or Miguel soon, but I believe we will see the temperatures plummet like a rock over the next few hours.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Hooked On Quack said:


> 58 here in Washington county, slight breeze, drizzling rain off and on.





42, no rain, wind picking up.


----------



## panfried0419

No snow=bust. Temps are temps. If that were the case we'd post about 100 degree weather in severe weather thread.


----------



## Bitteroot

I knew it...... Back to reality....


----------



## rhbama3

scattered rain, gusting wind 10-20mph down here in Sowega. Just dropped the wife off at the airport for the flight from albany to atlanta to denver. No delays reported yet.


----------



## bml

The extreme cold is by far the big event of the last few-next couple days. I believe it may catch a lot of folks off guard. Pipes in attics and exterior walls freezing, p-traps bursting, lots of things like that happening that almost never become a issue here in Ga are a very real possibility tonight and tomorrow.


----------



## MTMiller

my commute to downtown Atlanta from NE Paulding was non-eventful.  No problems seen on the roads, business as usual.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Below is a website where you can see it snowing in East Ellijay. If it does not come up click on the East Ellijay tab.

http://northganow.com/community-etc/?page_id=95


----------



## grunt0331

Few flurries in Stone Mountain.  Left Loganville at 5:00 and it was 34.  Got to work about 5:30 and it was 30 with flurries.  Highway 78 was clear, but there was some water still on the road.


----------



## klfutrelle

A bust for sure!


----------



## JonathanG2013

Yea the snow was a bust. The cold front arrived to late to cause any winter precipitation.


----------



## ryork

Some flurries here this morning, barely a trace of sleet mainly on the roof, porch etc.  Some icy spots on our driveway, which is very steep.


----------



## GA DAWG

Cold and flurries here.  Only getting colder.


----------



## Steven Farr

Hahahahahahaha


----------



## NGa.MtnHunter

Still getting flurries here, windy and 18 degrees.


----------



## Matt.M

Hope all these naysayers don't have any issues with the extreme cold they are going to have tomorrow morning.

But I'm happy that both of my son's schools are open this morning.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Bust here in Murray co. They was saying at least 1 in.  But I haven't seen any snow. But the temps are rough.


----------



## savreds

fiddyfo on da coast and clowdy. 
We's done seed our high fo da day!

HMIMBY


----------



## NCHillbilly

Yesterday it was 61 here, and I was outside in a tshirt. Right now its 17 with snow on the ground and getting steadily colder. the backroads were icy and snow-covered this morning. Check out our forecast for the next couple days:  

Today: Snow showers. Temperature falling to around -1 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a west northwest wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. 

Tonight:  A chance of snow showers, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10. Wind chill values as low as -33. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers before 10am. Sunny, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -32. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


----------



## keithsto

Was this our last shot at winter weather for this season?  All of the long range forecasts are calling for temps well above normal.


----------



## PappyHoel

Bust bust ... Flurries here at the house


----------



## jcountry

Not much here.  The wind blew away all the moisture before it got cold enough for ice.


----------



## PappyHoel

Ok when is the next event?


----------



## Matthew6

Snowing in Woodstock. at 1113 (actual time).


----------



## Matthew6

Accumulating now at 1130.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Where are you located Matthew6?


----------



## Matthew6

topfuelgirl said:


> Where are you located Matthew6?



Woodstock. Cherokee Co.


----------



## blood on the ground

Blue sky and cold in Cartersville


----------



## Matthew6

Turned back to flurries now. Just enough for the kids to try the sled I bought 3 years ago.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Matthew6 Can you take a picture of it. I have my in-laws live in Woodstock off of E Cherokee.


----------



## Matthew6

JonathanG2013 said:


> Matthew6 Can you take a picture of it. I have my in-laws live in Woodstock off of E Cherokee.



I can e mail it and you can post it if you wish. I use an I phone.


----------



## JonathanG2013

I can e mail it and you can post it if you wish. I use an I phone.
PM sent Matt


----------



## PappyHoel

The wind is whipping outside right now.  I went out earlier to get the mail.  The walk there was ok, but on the way back my legs froze off.  That was 30 mins ago and I'm still cold.


----------



## FlyDawg72

temps have dropped about 6-7 degrees in the last couple hours at my work... according to the thermometer on the window...


----------



## havin_fun_huntin

Where is DDD and Miguel.  We need yall fellas to keep us updated.


----------



## GA DAWG

Ain't but 15 out here and feeling like -3. Was 21 at 4:30. Its now 5:20.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

It was 17 when I walked to the bottom of my driveway to get my truck this morning around 9:00.  My mustache froze.  It's right now 6 degrees and feels like -8.  Am I really contemplating duck hunting in the morning?


----------



## PappyHoel

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> It was 17 when I walked to the bottom of my driveway to get my truck this morning around 9:00.  My mustache froze.  It's right now 6 degrees and feels like -8.  Am I really contemplating duck hunting in the morning?



You've got to really like duck hunting to go in that.  However if it was deer season I would go.


----------



## greg_n_clayton

10.1 degrees in the vineyard at the present !! Wind sustained at 22.7 mph !!


----------



## NCHillbilly

It's 5* actual temp here right now with a brisk wind just after dark, supposed to be down to about   -10 by morning. I was watching the news a half-hour ago, they said it was already -11 on top of Mt Mitchell.


----------



## Greene728

havin_fun_huntin said:


> Where is DDD and Miguel.  We need yall fellas to keep us updated.



I'm afraid the naysayers and Negative Nancy's may have aggravated and ran them off for awhile. Wouldn't be the first time either. I just find it strange that with the coldest weather and conditiins weve faced in many years that neither are here. Then again maybe their just busy.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Greene728 said:


> I'm afraid the naysayers and Negative Nancy's may have aggravated and ran them off for awhile. Wouldn't be the first time either. I just find it strange that with the coldest weather and conditiins weve faced in many years that neither are here. Then again maybe their just busy.



So.... A few people joking around with likely a few really meaning it in the bunch runs the weather guru's off. Dang!


----------



## Paint Brush

As an old man once told me the temperatures is headed down like dovers peaches. It,s 8.2 here north of Cleveland at 7:30 I think we might see Karo by morning!


----------



## PappyHoel

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> So.... A few people joking around with likely a few really meaning it in the bunch runs the weather guru's off. Dang!



We should be careful, we might get the around the campfire forum shut down for a week.


----------



## david w.

Keep this weather related.just because they aren't here doesn't mean they ran off.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Currently 2° with wind chill of -9° here.


----------



## NCHillbilly

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Currently 2° with wind chill of -9° here.



2 here, too...to...two.


----------



## Resica

16 here.


----------



## PappyHoel

14 here with 27mph wind


----------



## panfried0419

74 in Pendergrass. Oh sorry that's the indoor thermostat. Sorry it's 9 outside.


----------



## DDD

I am still hanging around boys.  Ya'll didn't run me off...


----------



## SGADawg

It just hit 32 here with a 23 wind chill.  11mph winds gusting to 21mph.   Sposed to be headed to 18 before morning.


----------



## DDD

NWS in Atlanta just stated that temps are falling faster than modeled and they think the temps will be 2-3° colder than modeled.  They believe that the models are struggling with the strength of the cold air mass.


----------



## DDD

The scuttle now is the possible freezing drizzle that the NAM is modeling from central Georgia up the typical CAD prone areas Thursday morning.

The precip is light, so the question is will it evaporate and never reach the ground due to the air being so dry?  Or will it make it and with the cold air mass in place and just enough High pressure to the NE will it be something that will jack roads up?

Because the models have had a hard time handling this air mass even 6 hours out, this will be worth watching.  This would be Wednesday night into Thursday morning.


----------



## Greene728

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> So.... A few people joking around with likely a few really meaning it in the bunch runs the weather guru's off. Dang!



I didn't mean for my post to be negative. But I do think that all the work and effort they put in to it (whether for fun or not) that they do get irritated at times with the ones who are always balking at everything. It has happened before and with good reason. And then again, maybe they just needed a break. I know I put a lot of stock in what they both have to say and try to keep my comments and posts related to the subject at hand. When there's a severe threat, MC is who I listen too. Winter threat its DDD. Take it for what its worth. I thank them both for there effort and dedication and I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## DDD

Greene728 said:


> I didn't mean for my post to be negative. But I do think that all the work and effort they put in to it (whether for fun or not) that they do get irritated at times with the ones who are always balking at everything. It has happened before and with good reason. And then again, maybe they just needed a break. I know I put a lot of stock in what they both have to say and try to keep my comments and posts related to the subject at hand. When there's a severe threat, MC is who I listen too. Winter threat its DDD. Take it for what its worth. I thank them both for there effort and dedication and I hope I'm wrong.




I promise you, I don't care what the nay sayers say.  I pay it 0 attention.  

You can take what I say however you want.

After the winters of 2010 and 2011 when others were saying nothing was going to happen and then it DUMPED the snow like I had been screaming for 5-7 days, I don't need to justify my words.  

I might miss it completely.  Like I stated then and I will state now, I only tell you what I see and what history tells me.  If you don't like that, go watch Ken Cook or go watch Glenn Burns hype it.


----------



## DDD

It's 10.4° in sunny Dacula.


----------



## Matt.M

Greene728 said:


> But I do think that all the work and effort they put in to it (whether for fun or not) that they do get irritated at times with the ones who are always balking at everything. It has happened before and with good reason. And then again, maybe they just needed a break. I know I put a lot of stock in what they both have to say and try to keep my comments and posts related to the subject at hand. When there's a severe threat, MC is who I listen too. Winter threat its DDD. Take it for what its worth.



Agreed.  

Thanks DDD and MC!  These events are a lot more fun with your insight.


----------



## DCHunter

Greene728 said:


> I thank them both for there effort and dedication.....



Me too. Thanks y'all.


----------



## mountainpass

It just hit 5 in Pickens.


----------



## DDD

We are at 9.5°


----------



## Unicoidawg

DDD said:


> I am still hanging around boys.  Ya'll didn't run me off...



and we appreciate you and Hugh's input on these threads. Anybody gives you too much grief, just holler.


----------



## Jeff Raines

Unicoidawg said:


> and we appreciate you and Hugh's input on these threads. Anybody gives you too much grief, just holler.



You ban'em and I'll kneecap'em


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I promise you, I don't care what the nay sayers say.  I pay it 0 attention.
> 
> You can take what I say however you want.
> 
> After the winters of 2010 and 2011 when others were saying nothing was going to happen and then it DUMPED the snow like I had been screaming for 5-7 days, I don't need to justify my words.
> 
> I might miss it completely.  Like I stated then and I will state now, I only tell you what I see and what history tells me.  If you don't like that, go watch Ken Cook or go watch Glenn Burns hype it.



I very much appreciate your time (and MC) and information you pass out to everyone. It makes following these threads so much fun. Keep up the great work!!


----------



## Dutch

17* in my backyard. 

Going to sit for awhile and see if a pinegoat will wander by.


----------



## NGa.MtnHunter

Cold here in NGa this morning.......broke the low record low for todays date.


----------



## mudracing101

Left the water running, got up this morning and none of its frozen Weather channel says 18 , back porch thermo gauge says 23. Either way its a lil cool.


----------



## GA DAWG

6 here in cumming. Alarms going off all over. Let the fun begin


----------



## blood on the ground

Cartersville checking in at 6 degrees. I love it! 
Now I have to go  check Rooftop units and make sure they are all running!!!! Sweet!!!!


----------



## 3ringer

I must have the warm spot. It was 11 in Jackson. Btw , you won't know that you have a busted pipe until it thaws sometime tomorrow or there after.


----------



## Keebs

mudracing101 said:


> Left the water running, got up this morning and none of its frozen Weather channel says 18 , back porch thermo gauge says 23. Either way its a lil cool.


Really??? and we're what? around 30 miles apart?!?!


----------



## Hornet22

Keebs said:


> Really??? and we're what? around 30 miles apart?!?!



Looks like da pets got out the water just in time


----------



## the HEED!

i had 3 degrees on the porch this morning at 7 AM, definitely a little nippy in Kennesaw

Man Ive gone through some firewood in the last 24, furnace has run non stop even with the buckstove kicking on intermitantly


----------



## NCHillbilly

It was 4 below 0 when I left out this morning about 6 oclock. I was sure glad to see the water still running.


----------



## ryork

Was 3 degrees when I pulled out of the garage around 8:00 this morning in Bremen and 6 when I got to Carrollton around 8:30 or so. I normally like winter, but ready for more sensible temps.


----------



## keithsto

keithsto said:


> Was this our last shot at winter weather for this season?  All of the long range forecasts are calling for temps well above normal.



What say you, DDD?


----------



## panfried0419

My windshield  cracked all the way through! 7 in the P'Grass!


----------



## grunt0331

Loganville at 6:00am


----------



## Unicoidawg

0 in Cleveland this morning.


----------



## Resica

Low overnight of -2. 0 right now with a wind chill of -17!!


----------



## savreds

It's all the way up to 22 on da coast, it was 18 when I left for the dentist office this morning.
Thanks Miguel and DDD for keeping us informed. 
Even though we have to have some kind of CRAZY event for us to get anything white falling from the skies down this way, it sure is fun to watch eveyone in the northern half of the state get excited.


----------



## panfried0419

50s and 60s on the 15 day accuweather forecast! Severe Weather spotting soon!!!


----------



## tr21

-4 in suches at 7am


----------



## BrotherBadger

I know most of you usually don't have to worry about frost bite, so here's a little chart to help you prevent it by knowing how long it takes to set in. Frostbite hurts, don't be dumb.

EDIT: for those who don't know, frostbite is the freezing of exposed tissue due to the cold.  You don't realize it at the time it occurs, but once the skin starts to thaw it BURNS SO MUCH. The coldest water feel like it's boiling your skin. I can't emphasize how much it sucks.


----------



## savreds

I can't believe that no one has posted in almost 24 hours. I figured for sure there would have been some pictures posted of some thermometers or some icicles or sumthin!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Camera froze.


----------



## 3ringer

savreds said:


> I can't believe that no one has posted in almost 24 hours. I figured for sure there would have been some pictures posted of some thermometers or some icicles or sumthin!



I was going to take a photo of the lake when it froze.  It didn't freeze this time. Dang global warming I guess.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

savreds said:


> I can't believe that no one has posted in almost 24 hours. I figured for sure there would have been some pictures posted of some thermometers or some icicles or sumthin!




Went duck hunting yesterday morning.  Was -4 when I left the house and -2 when I was back in the truck getting breakfast.

Mustache froze solid.


----------



## PappyHoel

Long range forecast:  looks like snow a week from Sunday.  I know it's a long way out but that's what weather underground says.


----------



## savreds

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Went duck hunting yesterday morning.  Was -4 when I left the house and -2 when I was back in the truck getting breakfast.
> 
> Mustache froze solid.



Nice snotcicles!  

I would have rather been out in it hunting than here at work.
Speaking of work, the geniuses that run my place of employment decided yesterday that, hey, maybe we should do some freeze proofing... after everything has been frozen for a day!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

savreds said:


> Nice snotcicles!
> 
> I would have rather been out in it hunting than here at work.
> Speaking of work, the geniuses that run my place of employment decided yesterday that, hey, maybe we should do some freeze proofing... after everything has been frozen for a day!



That's just moisture from my breath.  Snotcicles are green.


----------



## whitetaco02

Thoughts? 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
522 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
522 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS
TO FORSYTH TO WASHINGTON. AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON THE ROADWAYS. BY NOON ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS ABOUT THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.


----------



## PappyHoel

Cold rain


----------



## blood on the ground

I'm ready for more cold weather!!!!


----------



## 3ringer

whitetaco02 said:


> Thoughts?
> 
> HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
> 522 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014
> 
> GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
> 089>098-102>113-091030-
> BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
> CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
> CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
> FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
> GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
> JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
> MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
> MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
> PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
> SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
> TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
> WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
> WILKINSON-
> 522 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014
> 
> THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
> 
> .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
> 
> MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE COLD
> TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT FREEZING DRIZZLE
> IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.
> 
> FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS
> TO FORSYTH TO WASHINGTON. AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ICE
> ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
> THAT SOME SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON THE ROADWAYS. BY NOON ON
> THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
> 
> .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
> 
> STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
> SATURDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
> AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED TO
> LATER FORECASTS ABOUT THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
> 
> .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
> 
> SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
> TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
> WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.



DDD was right !


----------



## GA DAWG

So now its gonna snow tonight?


----------



## Resica

19 here.


----------



## elfiii

The weather has went full psychotic.


----------



## jcountry

I just saw the weather guy on 5 say that the polar vortex could dip south again around the 17th.....


----------



## SmokyMtnSmoke

What's this got you weather guys thinking?


----------



## mrs. hornet22

*Twas a little chilly*


----------



## carver

savreds said:


> I can't believe that no one has posted in almost 24 hours. I figured for sure there would have been some pictures posted of some thermometers or some icicles or sumthin!



Fannin county Georgia this morning


----------



## YankeeRedneck

Matt.M said:


> Agreed.
> 
> Thanks DDD and MC!  These events are a lot more fun with your insight.



X 1,000 !!!!


----------



## bml

Alright, we need the weather gurus back. What is an estimate for the next round of the cold weather?


----------



## PappyHoel

bml said:


> Alright, we need the weather gurus back. What is an estimate for the next round of the cold weather?



They are mad at us and punishing us with no reporting.


----------



## Resica

26. Freezing rain advisory until 9AM.


----------



## todd03blown

Lots of the local mets are speaking of next wednesday and thursday for potential of winter weather.


----------



## DDD

Need to keep our eyes on about next Thursday.  Almost all models are showing some variance of a winter event a week from today.

I am not mad at ya'll, I am only showing up to report in when there is something to track / follow and extreme temps or precip.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Lots of the local mets are speaking of next wednesday and thursday for potential of winter weather.



I have not seen the first tv news report, but I would imagine they are mentioning it because ALL the models have it.  They like that kind of confidence.


----------



## Crickett

I'm still hoping for something to occur on the 28th!


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I have not seen the first tv news report, but I would imagine they are mentioning it because ALL the models have it.  They like that kind of confidence.



I should rephrase that to only Mike Francis. And he did indeed say it has shown up in a few models runs


----------



## bml

Thanks, DDD. When you say winter weather, are you thinking more frigid temps, or precip or both?


----------



## 3ringer

Looks like Thursdays frozen precipitation is off the table.  I am hoping for a gooden this winter.


----------



## panfried0419

My 3 sites say snow for Wednesday and Thursday for Pendergrass!!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly

We've got a chance of snow showers tonight, then again Tuesday night and Wednesday.


----------



## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> We've got a chance of snow showers tonight, then again Tuesday night and Wednesday.



Your cheating some way some how ... Ain't ya ... Go ahead  ... Admit it!


----------



## DDD

The chance for some very light precip is on the table for Wednesday but timing is everything.  Nothing right now says this will be anything at all.

Long Range stuff is way more interesting.  We get some good blocking up north that pushes cold air south and locks it in.  We have to have that to get any good snow.


----------



## Mountainbuck

DDD, any moisture showing up in that long range?


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> The chance for some very light precip is on the table for Wednesday but timing is everything.  Nothing right now says this will be anything at all.
> 
> Long Range stuff is way more interesting.  We get some good blocking up north that pushes cold air south and locks it in.  We have to have that to get any good snow.



I have noticed all the wx folks on Facebook posting what appears to be some really cold weather end of Jan and Feb, which sticks around for a long time. Hopefully we can get one good snowfall this winter!


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> The chance for some very light precip is on the table for Wednesday but timing is everything.  Nothing right now says this will be anything at all.
> 
> Long Range stuff is way more interesting.  We get some good blocking up north that pushes cold air south and locks it in.  We have to have that to get any good snow.



Looks like the wedensday thingy went away.


----------



## NCHillbilly

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014

NCZ033-048>052-058-141115-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


----------



## Jeff C.

NCHillbilly said:


> HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
> 603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014
> 
> NCZ033-048>052-058-141115-
> AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
> 603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014
> 
> THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
> 
> .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
> 
> HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> 
> .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
> 
> ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY
> DAYBREAK IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND
> CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
> ..THURSDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
> THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TOTAL SNOW
> ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
> ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



Send it on down here!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Jeff C. said:


> Send it on down here!



I'll be glad to trade you for some balmy weather. I'll even throw in these temps and wind for the next few days, to boot. 

Wed Jan 15
Snow Shower

30°

11°

Snow Shower

Chance of snow:
    40%

Wind:
    NW at 17 mph 

Details
Thu Jan 16
Partly Cloudy / Wind

40°

19°

Partly Cloudy / Wind

Chance of rain:
    10%

Wind:
    WSW at 23 mph 

Details
Fri Jan 17
Snow Shower / Wind

32°

8°

Snow Shower / Wind

Chance of snow:
    50%

Wind:
    WNW at 20 mph 

Details
Sat Jan 18
Partly Cloudy

35°

15°

Partly Cloudy

Chance of precip:
    0%

Wind:
    WNW at 9 mph 

Details
Sun Jan 19
Partly Cloudy

39°

14°

Partly Cloudy

Chance of precip:
    0%

Wind:
    WNW at 10 mph 

Details
Mon Jan 20
Mostly Sunny

36°

18°

Mostly Sunny

Chance of precip:
    0%

Wind:
    W at 6 mph 

Details
Tue Jan 21
Few Snow Showers

34°

19°

Few Snow Showers

Chance of snow:
    30%

Wind:
    WNW at 9 mph 

Details
Wed Jan 22
Partly Cloudy

30°

17°

Partly Cloudy

Chance of precip:
    0%

Wind:
    WNW at 9 mph


----------



## Jeff C.

Probly reduce my Argentine population significantly.



















Ants


----------



## todd03blown

PappyHoel said:


> Looks like the wedensday thingy went away.



Just saw this posted on FB:

NEW GFS shows SNOW Tues. night from MS along the I-20 corridor Wednesday into the I-85 and I-95 corridors including Atlanta, Charlotte & DC.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

They have the same on weather.com. Along with their panhandling for DIRECTV to forget their penny increase.


----------



## todd03blown

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> They have the same on weather.com. Along with their panhandling for DIRECTV to forget their penny increase.



^^^LOL!!!!


----------



## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
> 603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014
> 
> NCZ033-048>052-058-141115-
> AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
> 603 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014
> 
> THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
> 
> .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
> 
> HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> 
> .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
> 
> ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY
> DAYBREAK IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND
> CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
> ..THURSDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
> THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TOTAL SNOW
> ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
> ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
> ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



Send it up here.


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Send it up here.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


>


----------



## Dustin Pate

Any insight on tonight/tomorrow morning???


----------



## ryork

*From B'ham NWS Office*

They're showing up to 1/2" accumulation along and N of I-20.  At the same time, the folks in ATL are indicating no accumulation except in the highest elevations of NE GA.  They obviously don't communicate on these forecasts.


----------



## PappyHoel

It will be a cold rain except for extreme extreme NGA.


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> It will be a cold rain except for extreme extreme NGA.


Nope. Gonna snow.


----------



## Bitteroot

Nope gonna rain and snow...


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Nope. Gonna snow.



Please look at your local forecast for Matt Ga again.  You will notice that the wet stuff is gone.  Not even rain.  Friday still has a 10% chance of a flake but that won't even happen.  

Back at ya


----------



## Jim Ammons

*Snow-NWGA*

.
Winter weather advisory in effect from 11 pm this evening to
1 pm est wednesday...

The national weather service in peachtree city has issued a
winter weather advisory for a wintry mix with possible light snow
accumulations...which is in effect from 11 pm this evening to 1
pm est wednesday.

* locations...areas of north georgia with emphasis on areas above
1500 ft.

* hazard types...light rain and snow changing to all light snow.

* accumulations...up to 1 inch of snow at the highest elevations.
A dusting to a quarter of an inch elsewhere.

* timing...late tonight into wednesday.

* impacts...only the highest elevations are expected to see
accumulating snowfall but hazardous driving conditions could be
experienced at all locations.

* winds...northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* temperatures...falling into the low to mid 30s.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A winter weather advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.


.


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> Please look at your local forecast for Matt Ga again.  You will notice that the wet stuff is gone.  Not even rain.  Friday still has a 10% chance of a flake but that won't even happen.
> 
> Back at ya


I have to work all the time. No time for checking forecast all the time


----------



## NCHillbilly

All the online models are still crying doom and gloom here, but our local weather guy (who's usually pretty durn accurate,) says he don't buy it and we're getting an inch or two tops here tonight and tomorrow. Hope he's right.


----------



## PappyHoel

lol





GA DAWG said:


> I have to work all the time. No time for checking forecast all the time


----------



## elfiii

Where's Triple D and the Messican? I want the troof!


----------



## PappyHoel

elfiii said:


> Where's Triple D and the Messican? I want the troof!



I haven't seen the messy can in days.  I think he's still mad we poopoo'd his last forecast.


----------



## Crickett

The messican has gone AWOL!


----------



## todd03blown

I think if this little situation had any traction, they would be sharing the good info with us


----------



## NCHillbilly

Been pouring snow here for the last couple hours. Itsa all white.


----------



## Jeff C.

NCHillbilly said:


> Been pouring snow here for the last couple hours. Itsa all white.



Take a tease pitcher and post it.


----------



## Hornet22

NCHillbilly said:


> Been pouring snow here for the last couple hours. Itsa all white.



Yep, it's usually that color down here when we get it two, to, too, 2, II


----------



## DDD

Alright so there is a lot to talk about and watch for the next 3+ weeks.

The atmosphere, the blocking that is needed to send cold air shots south, the different oscillations and teh things that different models and model runs are starting to show is making my eyes pop.

Focus really needs to be around next Friday /Saturday for a MAJOR SE winter event.  Not only that but the pattern is RIPE for a freezing rain event possibly that Friday night and then what I would classify as a major snow for Saturday.

Yes this would include Taco's back yard, Macon, Augusta, all points north.  3 different models on different run have all showed a HUGE low pressure system coming out of the Gulf with temps well below freezing over the entire state and South East.  It is red light district snow show.

The details are not really important right now.  What is important is that the cold air is in place, which obviously you have to have but the cold is packed in.  It's not a hit and go type deal.  The look reminds me of 2010 when the snow hung around for 5+ days.

Many weather gurus that I respect in the SE are blogging or tweeting about the pattern starting around the 20th of this month and then carrying on for 2+ weeks.

Most notably a name that you all might recgonize, Joe *******i who has been spot on this winter tweeted this today:

"I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US."

""Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught"

"Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"


My thoughts?  Right now I always, always say... "the trend is your friend."  If the pattern or consensus among models, be it temps or moisture is trending wetter or colder, or hotter and drier... the trend is your friend.

Everything looks to be trending colder and wetter.  If I were someone who didn't have fire wood, I would start looking for some this week or weekend and early next week.  I think we may be in for a long cold shot, as JB said, nation wide.

Snowmegedon?  No way anyone could call that this far out.  Is the pattern right for one?  You bet.


----------



## DDD

Also, Joe B. is not a South East guy, but he was talking a good bit about the south east today because he saw the storms on the models in the long range.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> Alright so there is a lot to talk about and watch for the next 3+ weeks.
> 
> The atmosphere, the blocking that is needed to send cold air shots south, the different oscillations and teh things that different models and model runs are starting to show is making my eyes pop.
> 
> Focus really needs to be around next Friday /Saturday for a MAJOR SE winter event.  Not only that but the pattern is RIPE for a freezing rain event possibly that Friday night and then what I would classify as a major snow for Saturday.
> 
> Yes this would include Taco's back yard, Macon, Augusta, all points north.  3 different models on different run have all showed a HUGE low pressure system coming out of the Gulf with temps well below freezing over the entire state and South East.  It is red light district snow show.
> 
> The details are not really important right now.  What is important is that the cold air is in place, which obviously you have to have but the cold is packed in.  It's not a hit and go type deal.  The look reminds me of 2010 when the snow hung around for 5+ days.
> 
> Many weather gurus that I respect in the SE are blogging or tweeting about the pattern starting around the 20th of this month and then carrying on for 2+ weeks.
> 
> Most notably a name that you all might recgonize, Joe *******i who has been spot on this winter tweeted this today:
> 
> "I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US."
> 
> ""Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught"
> 
> "Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"
> 
> 
> My thoughts?  Right now I always, always say... "the trend is your friend."  If the pattern or consensus among models, be it temps or moisture is trending wetter or colder, or hotter and drier... the trend is your friend.
> 
> Everything looks to be trending colder and wetter.  If I were someone who didn't have fire wood, I would start looking for some this week or weekend and early next week.  I think we may be in for a long cold shot, as JB said, nation wide.
> 
> Snowmegedon?  No way anyone could call that this far out.  Is the pattern right for one?  You bet.



Finally some good news - thanks DDD and bring it on. I luvs me so chaos....


----------



## Resica

DDD said:


> Also, Joe B. is not a South East guy, but he was talking a good bit about the south east today because he saw the storms on the models in the long range.



That's right. Joe is a Penn State guy and former Accuweather guy.


----------



## DDD

doenightmare said:


> Finally some good news - thanks DDD and bring it on. I luvs me so chaos....



Personally I don't care for the ice.  The ice is so much more deadly and problematic than the snow.  

I will be honest, this is the best shot we have had since the last big snow hit.  I like this look for a big snow.  It's what you want to see if you are a snow fan, hedging your bets in the south.


----------



## GA DAWG

We just got stuff cleaned up and working from our deep freeze last week. Don't tell me more is coming  Im not wired for temps under about 15


----------



## lbzdually

DDD said:


> Personally I don't care for the ice.  The ice is so much more deadly and problematic than the snow.
> 
> I will be honest, this is the best shot we have had since the last big snow hit.  I like this look for a big snow.  It's what you want to see if you are a snow fan, hedging your bets in the south.



I hate ice.  A few years back when the ice hit Atlanta right at rush hour, I got caught on 75 at exit 288.  After sitting for 3 hours with a splitting headache because I did not bring food, I drove the wrong way on 75 to get back on the ramp and go to Cartersville to get on 41 to get around most of the wrecks and back on 75.  I was running 30-40 mph and still nearly spun out on every bridge.  Got off on the S. Dalton bypass and my truck went 45degrees to the road, but was able to save it when I cleared the bridge.  Made it home without a scratch, only to step out of my truck and bust my tail/head in my driveway.


----------



## Mountainbuck

We seem to get snow when it comes outta the gulf


----------



## whitetaco02

Triple D, I love it when you mention my backyard!


----------



## shadow2

I got word that it was snowing like a champ up on the TVD about a hour ago.  not sticking to the pavement but on the grass and any elevated surfaces...


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> "Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"



Would you be willing to comment specifically on the above, please? This has me very concerned. This may affect how I need to approach quite a few things at work.


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> Would you be willing to comment specifically on the above, please? This has me very concerned. This may affect how I need to approach quite a few things at work.



Way too far out to buy into that statement with even 25% confidence.  2 weeks away?  No way you can buy that just yet.

If after another 5 days models still show this, we will talk.

Not really sure I can tell you more than the statement JB made.  It COULD be that cold or not.  Time needs to roll off.  

Monday will be a much better day to look at this and what Friday / Saturday of next week holds.


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Way too far out to buy into that statement with even 25% confidence.  2 weeks away?  No way you can buy that just yet.
> 
> If after another 5 days models still show this, we will talk.
> 
> Not really sure I can tell you more than the statement JB made.  It COULD be that cold or not.  Time needs to roll off.
> 
> Monday will be a much better day to look at this and what Friday / Saturday of next week holds.




MUCH appreciated!! Looking forward to your additional input.


----------



## PappyHoel

My magic 8ball known as weather underground was saying the same as DDD.  However this morning it's all gone and dried up.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Alright so there is a lot to talk about and watch for the next 3+ weeks.
> 
> The atmosphere, the blocking that is needed to send cold air shots south, the different oscillations and teh things that different models and model runs are starting to show is making my eyes pop.
> 
> Focus really needs to be around next Friday /Saturday for a MAJOR SE winter event.  Not only that but the pattern is RIPE for a freezing rain event possibly that Friday night and then what I would classify as a major snow for Saturday.
> 
> Yes this would include Taco's back yard, Macon, Augusta, all points north.  3 different models on different run have all showed a HUGE low pressure system coming out of the Gulf with temps well below freezing over the entire state and South East.  It is red light district snow show.
> 
> The details are not really important right now.  What is important is that the cold air is in place, which obviously you have to have but the cold is packed in.  It's not a hit and go type deal.  The look reminds me of 2010 when the snow hung around for 5+ days.
> 
> Many weather gurus that I respect in the SE are blogging or tweeting about the pattern starting around the 20th of this month and then carrying on for 2+ weeks.
> 
> Most notably a name that you all might recgonize, Joe *******i who has been spot on this winter tweeted this today:
> 
> "I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US."
> 
> ""Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught"
> 
> "Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"
> 
> 
> My thoughts?  Right now I always, always say... "the trend is your friend."  If the pattern or consensus among models, be it temps or moisture is trending wetter or colder, or hotter and drier... the trend is your friend.
> 
> Everything looks to be trending colder and wetter.  If I were someone who didn't have fire wood, I would start looking for some this week or weekend and early next week.  I think we may be in for a long cold shot, as JB said, nation wide.
> 
> Snowmegedon?  No way anyone could call that this far out.  Is the pattern right for one?  You bet.


Hope this snow and cold pan out! Would be nice to get a 4-6" snow fall for a few days.


----------



## Matt.M

Just as our resident Winter Weather Watcher (DDD, for anyone not in the know) predicted its coming boys (and gals)!!! Social media is blowing up about the future snowstorm and COLD weather.  Like January 2010 good.

Thinking about buying some sleds.  Nevermind, I actually want to see snow.


----------



## todd03blown

Matt.M said:


> Just as our resident Winter Weather Watcher (DDD, for anyone not in the know) predicted its coming boys (and gals)!!! Social media is blowing up about the future snowstorm and COLD weather.  Like January 2010 good.
> 
> Thinking about buying some sleds.  Nevermind, I actually want to see snow.



Indeed! All the WX sites (Facebook, Twitter, etc) are all blowing up with the longterm projected forecast and the snow word is all over it for the deep south


----------



## Nicodemus

todd03blown said:


> Indeed! All the WX sites (Facebook, Twitter, etc) are all blowing up with the longterm projected forecast and the snow word is all over it for the deep south




Define deep south.  Down here where I am too?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Define deep south. Down here where I am too?
DDD said the other day the snow is supposed to be Macon and northward.


----------



## Keebs

JonathanG2013 said:


> Define deep south. Down here where I am too?
> 
> DDD said the other day the snow is supposed to be Macon and northward.


Macon is NOT "Deep South".......... sheesh! Don't get my hopes up like that!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Keebs said:


> Macon is NOT "Deep South".......... sheesh! Don't get my hopes up like that!



I don't mind a little snow for a day or two. But they talkin like 2010.  Then it'll just freeze over and you can't play in it or nothin.
I'm gonna go  crazy.


----------



## JonathanG2013

This is the info DDD posted for those that did not see it.


> Alright so there is a lot to talk about and watch for the next 3+ weeks.
> 
> The atmosphere, the blocking that is needed to send cold air shots south, the different oscillations and teh things that different models and model runs are starting to show is making my eyes pop.
> 
> Focus really needs to be around next Friday /Saturday for a MAJOR SE winter event. Not only that but the pattern is RIPE for a freezing rain event possibly that Friday night and then what I would classify as a major snow for Saturday.
> 
> Yes this would include Taco's back yard, Macon, Augusta, all points north. 3 different models on different run have all showed a HUGE low pressure system coming out of the Gulf with temps well below freezing over the entire state and South East. It is red light district snow show.
> 
> The details are not really important right now. What is important is that the cold air is in place, which obviously you have to have but the cold is packed in. It's not a hit and go type deal. The look reminds me of 2010 when the snow hung around for 5+ days.
> 
> Many weather gurus that I respect in the SE are blogging or tweeting about the pattern starting around the 20th of this month and then carrying on for 2+ weeks.
> 
> Most notably a name that you all might recgonize, Joe *******i who has been spot on this winter tweeted this today:
> 
> "I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US."
> 
> ""Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught"
> 
> "Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"
> 
> 
> My thoughts? Right now I always, always say... "the trend is your friend." If the pattern or consensus among models, be it temps or moisture is trending wetter or colder, or hotter and drier... the trend is your friend.
> 
> Everything looks to be trending colder and wetter. If I were someone who didn't have fire wood, I would start looking for some this week or weekend and early next week. I think we may be in for a long cold shot, as JB said, nation wide.
> 
> Snowmegedon? No way anyone could call that this far out. Is the pattern right for one? You bet.


----------



## challer

What are some of the other blogs that y'all are talking about.  Would like to follow those as well.  No disrespect to DDD or Miguel.  Just want more info.  Thanks


----------



## malak05

challer said:


> What are some of the other blogs that y'all are talking about.  Would like to follow those as well.  No disrespect to DDD or Miguel.  Just want more info.  Thanks



This is a Southeast weather Forum that I frequent a bit...alot of model maps and meteorologist talk

http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/forum/1-general-weather-discussion/


----------



## savreds

Keebs said:


> Macon is NOT "Deep South".......... sheesh! Don't get my hopes up like that!



Yeah, they always leave those of us that live below I-20 out when they start throwing around the S word!


----------



## GA DAWG

Hey Pappy. What's it gonna do?


----------



## bml

I haven't seen much of anything else on the web indicating major cold/snow/ice with a quick google search. I am eagerly anticipating input from DDD and Miguel............


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Hey Pappy. What's it gonna do?



Last night I was reading the same thing as DDD, but this afternoon I can't find anything about it.  

Don't listen to me though there's no science to my guess, I just look at accuweather, weather underground, NOAA, etc. and I speculate.  DDD and Miguel have computer models that back up their data and an understanding of weather patterns. DDD and the Mexican are usually right on.


----------



## todd03blown

bml said:


> I haven't seen much of anything else on the web indicating major cold/snow/ice with a quick google search. I am eagerly anticipating input from DDD and Miguel............



If you are on Facebook, I follow a few Wx pages. This one is called WxSouth.

He posted this earlier:

No changes on GFS model. The ridge builds and builds, so the cold air drops continuously into the lower 48 states. And the talk of "dry " cold is probably not going to work out for the South. Already by day 9 and 10 there is a system coming down the Rockies that heads pretty far south near the Gulf and this could be the first major widespread Winter storm in a long time for areas of the Deep South. And one that doesn't track WEST of the Appalachians. Too early for any details other than mentioning that there is something "track-worthy". After that, the pattern repeats over and over. Very interesting pattern if you like Winter with a lot of things to watch. Forecasters won't get much rest between now and early February.


----------



## bml

That is almost word for word what Kirk Mellish posted.

http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kir...s-another-siberian-expresspolar-vortex-shift/


----------



## todd03blown

WOW! That is pretty much verbatim. I wonder if Kurt is the WxSouth guy, LOL.

Very interesting read nonetheless. Looks like we have lots of hope on the horizon. Hopefully some of it comes to fruition.


----------



## PappyHoel

bml said:


> That is almost word for word what Kirk Mellish posted.
> 
> http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kir...s-another-siberian-expresspolar-vortex-shift/



Good post, I never knew what mellish looked like.


----------



## bml

todd03blown said:


> WOW! That is pretty much verbatim. I wonder if Kurt is the WxSouth guy, LOL.
> 
> Very interesting read nonetheless. Looks like we have lots of hope on the horizon. Hopefully some of it comes to fruition.



Well, I think the WxSouth guy's name is Robert, but I'm not 100% on that. Does kinda make you wonder what the deal is, though. 

Almost like they both cut and pasted from someone elses' blog


----------



## todd03blown

Some more reading:

http://firsthandweather.com/124/brutal-cold-way-united-states/


----------



## topfuelgirl

Accuweather is showing a ice storm beginning Monday night Jan. 27th with ice everyday through the following Friday!! I want snow, no ice!! I remember the BIG ice storm in the 70's we didn't have power for a week. And anyone that lives in Georgia know that the pine trees are the first to come down.


----------



## mewabbithunter

http://firsthandweather.com/124/brutal-cold-way-united-states/


----------



## Trigabby

PappyHoel said:


> Good post, I never knew what mellish looked like.



Definitely a face made for radio....


----------



## mewabbithunter

North Georgia Weather

According to Larry, 
 "The 12Z 1/17 GFS has a major nasty "ice baby ice" storm for 1/28-1/29. The models are showing a sleet storm for Atlanta, Athens, Macon, and Columbia 1/2 to 1.15" of an inch liquid equiv., heaviest Macon/Columbia.


----------



## PappyHoel

Nay sayer Here.   I just don't buy a forecast like that for 11-12 days out.  Heck they didn't get flurries rIght 3 hrs out on Monday.


----------



## blood on the ground

Bread and milk ....... Bread and milk!!!!!!!!


----------



## Paymaster

Man! I am taking off Thursday the 30th to do a big Super Bowl smoke/cook for 10-12 folks at work. Supposed to bring it all in on Friday for them to take to their various parties. Hope it works out!


----------



## JonathanG2013

Pappy you are always a nay sayer.


----------



## Trigabby

No, no, no... This is NOT going to happen.


----------



## nickel back

...... its a wait game, TV guys are saying nothing yet, I'm going to wait to hear from DDD.


where you at DDD?


----------



## Mountainbuck

Last Night weather underground was showing a major snow event for n ga next weekend now it's showing sunshine and 45


----------



## PappyHoel

JonathanG2013 said:


> Pappy you are always a nay sayer.



I know somebody has to be.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Snowin' here right now.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

NCHillbilly said:


> Snowin' here right now.


Better there than here!!.........You can keep all of that stuff up there!!!


----------



## Crickett

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Better there than here!!.........You can keep all of that stuff up there!!!



 I wanna see some snow on my birthday.


----------



## Keebs

NCHillbilly said:


> Snowin' here right now.


I hates you right now............. (not really, but you know what I mean!)


RUTTNBUCK said:


> Better there than here!!.........You can keep all of that stuff up there!!!


HUSH!!!!!!!!!!


Crickett said:


> I wanna see some snow on my birthday.



I wanna see for your birthday too!! And just for the heck of it for me too!


----------



## Mountainbuck

Have they called it off!? I can't find any website forecasting any winter weather for the next 14 days ?


----------



## Wade Chandler

They all go off the gfs and it's flopping around right now. Supposedly the euro is keeping the storm, so we just have to see if the gfs comes back on line or if the euro trends away.


----------



## todd03blown

Wade Chandler said:


> They all go off the gfs and it's flopping around right now. Supposedly the euro is keeping the storm, so we must have to see if the gfs comes back on line or if the euro trends away.



What Wade said.


----------



## NCHillbilly

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Better there than here!!.........You can keep all of that stuff up there!!!



I'll be more than happy to, if you'll keep all that ice down there.  Nice balmy 15 here this morning with a skiff of snow on the ground. Supposed to snow again tonight.


----------



## bml

Another tidbit of info.

http://www.salon.com/2014/01/17/brace_yourself_the_polar_vortex_is_coming_back/


----------



## shakey gizzard

My knee is starting to ache!


----------



## nickel back

......


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

I'm startin' to side with you Pappy...SMH


----------



## Mountainbuck

Maybe something will happen next yr


----------



## GA DAWG

My phone is saying light snow tonight across north ga. Got a little warning thingy and everything.


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> ......


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> My phone is saying light snow tonight across north ga. Got a little warning thingy and everything.



That thingy is wrong


----------



## Ricky

PappyHoel said:


> That thingy is wrong



sure about that?


----------



## Mountainbuck

Accu weather is showing some 60s around chatsworth in about 10 days ??????? What's up


----------



## Matthew6

Mountainbuck said:


> Accu weather is showing some 60s around chatsworth in about 10 days ??????? What's up



To heck with snow. Bring on the 60s. Time for February crappie fishing. Snow is only for Yankees and those with trout avatars.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Lol I reckon. I was wanting at least one good one. There was a bunch of hype on here about something I heard but it's not being forecasted


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> To heck with snow. Bring on the 60s. Time for February crappie fishing. Snow is only for Yankees and those with trout avatars.



 Snowed a little this morning.


----------



## 3ringer

So did the models take our winter storm away ? Maybe the models will give it back to us this week.


----------



## NCHillbilly

GA DAWG said:


> My phone is saying light snow tonight across north ga. Got a little warning thingy and everything.



We got a good dusting here in extreme N GA.


----------



## GA DAWG

NCHillbilly said:


> We got a good dusting here in extreme N GA.


See pappy. My thingy was not wrong. We'd have gotten one to if you'd just believe


----------



## DDD

The GFS lost the storm for about 24 hours, but guess what?  It's back....  But like Wade said above, so many people hedge their bets on the GFS model.

Once the energy that is going to bring all of this to us gets better sampled by the models, the picture will be more clear.  You have to remember this is 10 days away.

Sure, it could still go warm and be absolutely nothing, but the EURO continues to hold onto it and the GFS is waffling worse than a democrat close to an election.

Don't get lost on one or two model runs way far out.  

Winter is not over by a long shot.  Patience grasshopper.


----------



## Mountainbuck

We'll if holds to what it's showing now will this be flurries? Light wintry mix? Or a good accumulating snow?


----------



## blood on the ground

Mini ice age coming soon! LOL!


----------



## Hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> Mini ice age coming soon! LOL!



Git back on da roof idjit


----------



## blood on the ground

Hornet22 said:


> Git back on da roof idjit



To shiny out ... Afraid i might catch a sunburn!


----------



## Mountainbuck

So just cold temps no precipitation ??


----------



## gobbleinwoods

blood on the ground said:


> To shiny out ... Afraid i might catch a sunburn!



But you on the roof are our nowcaster.


----------



## panfried0419

Hopefully get to see snow in Gatlinburg next weekend


----------



## blood on the ground

panfried0419 said:


> Hopefully get to see snow in Gatlinburg next weekend



You will ... They make it up that way!


----------



## Mountainbuck

Always snows there


----------



## Bitteroot

Bitters tendayaway forecast.....bust.....


----------



## Mountainbuck

Will see by mid week don't look good. I don't even see cold temps


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Mountainbuck said:


> Will see by mid week don't look good. I don't even see cold temps



Don't see what you are seeing.  predicted low in Helen T-19 on Th 17  to me that is cold for GA.


----------



## Mountainbuck

We'll I mean the highs for chatsworth are 40s no major snow with highs reaching 40.


----------



## NCHillbilly

They're calling for up to 6" here tomorrow, with lows near 0 and high winds tomorrow night. I'm about ready to move to south Georgia until about April.


----------



## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> They're calling for up to 6" here tomorrow, with lows near 0 and high winds tomorrow night. I'm about ready to move to south Georgia until about April.



I bet it does get old


----------



## WickedKwik

DDD, we are gonna go cold and dry aren't we?


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> Will see by mid week don't look good. I don't even see cold temps



Please expound on this statement.


----------



## DDD

WickedKwik said:


> DDD, we are gonna go cold and dry aren't we?



I would not underline the dry statement just yet.  The Canadian model keeps insisting on a deep South snow for the weekend.

The GFS in it's latest run puts down snow 10 days from now.

One thing for sure... it's going to be brutal cold.  Not as deep cold as we had 2 weeks ago, but pretty cold especially when you factor in wind chills.


----------



## GA DAWG

How cold? Im use to it now anyhow..


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> I would not underline the dry statement just yet.  The Canadian model keeps insisting on a deep South snow for the weekend.
> 
> The GFS in it's latest run puts down snow 10 days from now.
> 
> One thing for sure... it's going to be brutal cold.  Not as deep cold as we had 2 weeks ago, but pretty cold especially when you factor in wind chills.



got to ask, doesn't the NAO need to go neg.?


----------



## DDD

This would be for Jan. 30th and is what the GFS is advertising.


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> got to ask, doesn't the NAO need to go neg.?



The NAO is positive right now but the AO is negative.

Both in negative territory is PRIME, but one will get the job done.  It's not a must have, it just helps.


----------



## Resica

Forecast for Tuesday went from a coating to an inch to 6-10 inches!!!


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> How cold? Im use to it now anyhow..



Anywhere north of I-20 will struggle to get above 36° before Saturday.

Also, temperature maps tend to bust the wrong way in the winter.  So it would not surprise me for the models to be underplaying the strength of the cold.

The big weather maker that is causing all the problems is still out over the ocean way up past Alaska, until that gets sampled better, model runs are going to go all over the place.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> How cold? Im use to it now anyhow..



I left out the lows will get around 15-20° and wind chills will be down near 0°


----------



## DDD

Here is what the Canadian was advertising this morning... 

However it has lost that train of thought now.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Here is what the Canadian was advertising this morning...
> 
> However it has lost that train of thought now.



wish that train of thought would come back and hold true.


----------



## panfried0419

I guess our Gatlinburg trip this weekend is going to be polar!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I too hope the Canadian comes back around the that forecast


----------



## blood on the ground

Cutting doughnuts in your truck is so much easier on ice!!!


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Forecast for Tuesday went from a coating to an inch to 6-10 inches!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Today A chance of rain or freezing rain before 10am, then rain likely between 10am and noon, then snow after noon. Temperature rising to near 35 by 10am, then falling to around 22 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a northwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 

Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -13. North northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Wednesday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -13. North northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. 

Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. West northwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. 

Thursday A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. North northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 20%.Friday Sunny, with a high near 27.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


>



Upgraded..... 9-16".!!!


----------



## Resica

A shot from the vehicle.


----------



## AccUbonD

Snow and sleeting pretty good here in Bartow.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Absolutely pouring snow here right now. I'd say my drive home is gonna look about like Resica's, all 40 miles of it.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Be safe, wish i got a snow day or two.


----------



## GA DAWG

Been snowing here this evening to. In the 30040.


----------



## Bitteroot

Snowing in da valley......


----------



## ryork

Some flurries here at the office in Carrollton


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Been snowing here this evening to. In the 30040.



No it snot

Picture or it didn't happen


----------



## orrb

send some to paulding county please


----------



## rospaw

Been snowing in ellijay for the last couple of hours. Deck is covered and half the front yard. At 1130am today it was 47 and sunny by 1 it was 37 and still 37.


----------



## GA DAWG

Blizzard now.


----------



## orrb

GA DAWG said:


> Blizzard now.



BAH..


----------



## mewabbithunter

Snowing in Gillsville Ga


----------



## Brenda61979

It is snowing in cumming ga


----------



## mudracing101

Suns out and 63 here in Tifton, going to go lay out and get my tan on.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Road thru some flurries from 30606 to 30680.


----------



## GA DAWG

Here was the blizzard of 14.


----------



## Crickett

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Road thru some flurries from 30606 to 30680.



 I missed'em! 


GA DAWG said:


> Here was the blizzard of 14.



My sister lives in Jasper & she said she was driving in a white out! She said the wind was blowing snow so hard & it was foggy.


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> We'll I mean the highs for chatsworth are 40s no major snow with highs reaching 40.


----------



## DDD

Alright, not going to post a whole ton on this right now, but the time period of 1/28- 2/1 will need to be watched closely.  GFS and EURO starting to latch onto a winter wx event.

Right now it would be ice and snow.  Especially in the CAD prone areas down to NE ATL.


More on that in the days to come.  

For now, prolonged cold period ahead.  Firewood and coats will be needed from now to Saturday.


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> A shot from the vehicle.



Nice.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Resica said:


> A shot from the vehicle.



You drive in da snow


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> Nice.






mrs. hornet22 said:


> You drive in da snow



In that vehicle, only when it's less than 10 inches, otherwise I'm plowing snowing with it.


----------



## Resica

Some shots from tonight.


----------



## Resica

9 degrees . Wind chill -2.


----------



## blood on the ground

Resica said:


> 9 degrees . Wind chill -2.



That's cold!!!!
Do us a favor an thump someone on the ear and report back to us their reaction..... Hehehee


----------



## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Alright, not going to post a whole ton on this right now, but the time period of 1/28- 2/1 will need to be watched closely.  GFS and EURO starting to latch onto a winter wx event.
> 
> Right now it would be ice and snow.  Especially in the CAD prone areas down to NE ATL.
> 
> 
> More on that in the days to come.
> 
> For now, prolonged cold period ahead.  Firewood and coats will be needed from now to Saturday.


Can you give me a forecast that calls for firewood and coats until June?


----------



## BrotherBadger

-5 right now, with wind chills of -19 out. 10 day forecast is basically the same nonsense, with a few days getting as high as 19 above, but most having highs in the mid single digits. It's basically been this way since early December. Don't get me wrong, it's not that unusual for winter up here, but it's usually just from mid January-early February only. To have it for the past 6 weeks, knowing it won't really warm up for another 2-3 weeks is just mentally tiring.

On the good side, we missed most of the snow, only getting about 4 inches last night.


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Some shots from tonight.



Are you still out there plowing?


----------



## gobbleinwoods

There are some things about NE I occasionally miss.


----------



## cjones

Resica said:


> Some shots from tonight.



Looks like a 'dry' snow, which means all that area that you blew out last night will be blown back in by this afternoon.  Have fun with THAT!  

Every once in a while, I start to miss the big snows we had in Iowa.  Then I snap back to my senses - especially when I see pics like that.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> Are you still out there plowing?







cjones said:


> Looks like a 'dry' snow, which means all that area that you blew out last night will be blown back in by this afternoon.  Have fun with THAT!
> 
> Every once in a while, I start to miss the big snows we had in Iowa.  Then I snap back to my senses - especially when I see pics like that.



No snowmen with this one. Ratios were probably close to 20:1, brooming snow.


----------



## DDD

Looking down the road to next week... wow, what a cold shot of winter on the horizon!

2 models are showing a winter storm for the SE, but all models are showing some serious, serious cold coming.

We could actually drop below 0 and I am not talking about the wind chill.  Also, it would not be a 2 day hit of cold like the last time.  IT would be long lived.  The way the high pressure slides over us after the cold shot, locks the cold in.

Today is Wednesday.... we are talking 8-9 days away.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Looking down the road to next week... wow, what a cold shot of winter on the horizon!
> 
> 2 models are showing a winter storm for the SE, but all models are showing some serious, serious cold coming.
> 
> We could actually drop below 0 and I am not talking about the wind chill.  Also, it would not be a 2 day hit of cold like the last time.  IT would be long lived.  The way the high pressure slides over us after the cold shot, locks the cold in.
> 
> Today is Wednesday.... we are talking 8-9 days away.


Hopefully we have some moisture to go with that cold and end up with some white stuff on the ground


----------



## panfried0419

Cold drought for the future weeks ahead


----------



## Matt.M

Models and gurus are pointing to a snow event next weekend.  Bring it!


----------



## jesnic

Show the models.


----------



## DDD

jesnic said:


> Show the models.



Latest GFS is running now... I will let you know what it says.


----------



## jesnic

Awesome. Got to plan out he jobs to keep the families fed.


----------



## DDD

Latest model run of the GFS brings the cold and then the LPS pops out of the gulf over Texas and starts to make that classic southern snow run into SE where temps are below freezing all the way to the coast.

Snow has broken out over Dallas, LA, southern Miss and southern Alabama and then it just turns back into the Gulf of Mexico and waves bye-bye.  

Baby steps.  

The last run of the EURO and it's ensemble members still has a major SE snow storm.

I sort of think the GFS is starting to pick up what the EURO is putting down.  More time and more runs of the GFS will tell more.


----------



## blood on the ground

1993 repeat would be nice  .... Can I get a Amen?


----------



## telco guy

Amen! I just don't want to have to work in it this time.


----------



## todd03blown

blood on the ground said:


> 1993 repeat would be nice  .... Can I get a Amen?



AMEN!! I was in Chattanooga for that and on spring break from college and got 20"+ of snow. Great memories!!


----------



## blood on the ground

telco guy said:


> Amen! I just don't want to have to work in it this time.





todd03blown said:


> AMEN!! I was in Chattanooga for that and on spring break from college and got 20"+ of snow. Great memories!!



I was not working nor was I in college but I do remember it well and to this day that is still the most snow I have seen!


----------



## Paymaster

I remember the snow drifts that covered the pasture fench and several cars at my house.

Not really interested in ever seeing that again.


----------



## nickel back

Paymaster said:


> I remember the snow drifts that covered the pasture fench and several cars at my house.
> 
> Not really interested in ever seeing that again.



Don't think you haft to worry about that any time soon but I would love to see it again.....


----------



## 3ringer

10 day forecast are showing freezing temps and precipitation . Hopefully DDD can make the models hold on to it. It would be a shame to waste 4 straight weeks of freezing temps and not get any snow.


----------



## NCHillbilly

blood on the ground said:


> 1993 repeat would be nice  .... Can I get a Amen?



Yeah, that would be great. Loads of fun. There was snow completely over my truck so that you couldn't even see it and drifted level with my roof. People's roofs and barns collapsed. People trapped in their houses because they couldn't get the doors open. Lots of people died because emergency vehicles couldn't get to them, thousands of people trapped in their vehicles on the interstates, thousands of car wrecks, some fatal, old people without power or heat and running out of food in 0* temperatures, people losing two weeks of pay because the roads were impassable, livestock dying right and left, millions of dollars of damage. It was a hoot. We need more storms like that for sure.


----------



## Greene728

NCHillbilly said:


> Yeah, that would be great. Loads of fun. There was snow completely over my truck so that you couldn't even see it and drifted level with my roof. People's roofs and barns collapsed. People trapped in their houses because they couldn't get the doors open. Lots of people died because emergency vehicles couldn't get to them, thousands of people trapped in their vehicles on the interstates, thousands of car wrecks, some fatal, old people without power or heat and running out of food in 0* temperatures, people losing two weeks of pay because the roads were impassable, livestock dying right and left, millions of dollars of damage. It was a hoot. We need more storms like that for sure.






I dont see why anyone would want that kind of cold and snow/ice here. I honestly hope yalls dreams are crushed. Move to Canada if thats what you want so bad. People and the infrastructure here are not used to or built for it.
It would be catastrophic in more ways than one.


----------



## jcountry

I don't want a crazy storm, but it would be nice to get some of the white stuff this year......

Even Houston is gonna get snow.   Where's mine?


----------



## nickel back

NCHillbilly said:


> Yeah, that would be great. Loads of fun. There was snow completely over my truck so that you couldn't even see it and drifted level with my roof. People's roofs and barns collapsed. People trapped in their houses because they couldn't get the doors open. Lots of people died because emergency vehicles couldn't get to them, thousands of people trapped in their vehicles on the interstates, thousands of car wrecks, some fatal, old people without power or heat and running out of food in 0* temperatures, people losing two weeks of pay because the roads were impassable, livestock dying right and left, millions of dollars of damage. It was a hoot. We need more storms like that for sure.



you make a good point


----------



## 3ringer

jcountry said:


> I don't want a crazy storm, but it would be nice to get some of the white stuff this year......
> 
> Even Houston is gonna get snow.   Where's mine?



Yep


----------



## Jeff C.

nickel back said:


> you make a good point



Yes it's a good point, but I don't think anyone meant that they are hoping for devastation and destruction from a such an event.


----------



## muddywaters3

blood on the ground said:


> 1993 repeat would be nice  .... Can I get a Amen?



Amen, as long as its gone in about 2 or 3 days and my power stays on.  

After that 10th day of no power and all the snow turning into a nasty, sludgy mess, the fun was not there anymore.


----------



## keithsto

Give me no ice and 4-6" of snow that stays on the ground for a few days and I would be happy.  Not interested in the extreme cold because I don't like seeing anyone's pipes burst.  Not interested in 6ft+ snow drifts that prevent travel.  I just want decent bit of the white stuff.

The 50-60mph winds back in 93 peeled the tin roof off of my uncles chicken house like the top of a Vienna sausage can.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Jeff C. said:


> Yes it's a good point, but I don't think anyone meant that they are hoping for devastation and destruction from a such an event.



That's what comes with it, though, and a lot of folks who have never seen a real blizzard don't realize that. You can't have a 3'-4' snowfall without devastation, destruction, and people dying, especially in this part of the country that isn't equipped to deal with those kind of events.


----------



## Hornet22

'93 was real bad, but made some good OT. Icejam '82 was pretty miserable also, shut Etlanter for a good spell. Never will forget driving a bucket truck on 285 one night, NO traffic whatsoever, spinning on black ice, complete 360, kept right on going.


----------



## Crickett

I don't want people hurt or their pipes to burst but I kinda would like for my kids to experience a major snow event.


----------



## bigox911




----------



## mrs. hornet22

bigox911 said:


>



Hey stranger. You can't juss come in here and do that and LEAVE.


----------



## todd03blown

bigox911 said:


>



Boy, the weather message boards and FB wx sites are going haywire right now...LOL!!


----------



## bigox911

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Hey stranger. You can't juss come in here and do that and LEAVE.



  Hopefully going to be an interesting couple of weeks


----------



## Jeff C.

bigox911 said:


> Hopefully going to be an interesting couple of weeks



Good Gooogly Mooogly!


----------



## bigox911

Jeff C. said:


> Good Gooogly Mooogly!



Everybody can dream...need to focus on north and west!!


----------



## orrb

bigox911 said:


> Everybody can dream...need to focus on north and west!!



it needs to go to west and follow I-20 all the way to Alabama with the blue..


----------



## DDD

Lots to talk about tonight... what bigox posted is just one run of the GFS.  It tends to be really supressed at this length of time, so I am impressed and there is A LOT to discuss.

I should have an update sometime after 8PM tonight.


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> you make a good point



This.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> This.



0 night before last and 2 last night. Daytime temps aren't getting above 18. Probably won't see the freezing mark for over a week. Real cold for up here. Snow on the ground isn't leaving anytime soon.


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Boy, the weather message boards and FB wx sites are going haywire right now...LOL!!



EURO which dominates the 7-10 day window drops a snow bomb on the coast of NC and SC.

We are on the fringe, but Gosh dang Savanah might have more than Atlanta verbatim off the models.


----------



## jcountry

Maybe stuff will get interesting.  

I would love to build a snowman!


----------



## bigox911

DDD said:


> EURO which dominates the 7-10 day window drops a snow bomb on the coast of NC and SC.
> 
> We are on the fringe, but Gosh dang Savanah might have more than Atlanta verbatim off the models.



Yeah that was the euro map I posted...nutz...


----------



## rjcruiser

Crickett said:


> I don't want people hurt or their pipes to burst but I kinda would like for my kids to experience a major snow event.



My pipes have already burst...and precautions have been taken so that it doesn't happen again.

Bring on the snow!!!!


----------



## clairol

we'll take some snow at the coast...


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Lots to talk about tonight... what bigox posted is just one run of the GFS.  It tends to be really supressed at this length of time, so I am impressed and there is A LOT to discuss.
> 
> I should have an update sometime after 8PM tonight.



This is what I like to hear!


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> We are on the fringe, but Gosh dang Savanah might have more than Atlanta verbatim off the models.



This far out?  It's going to move west (like it always does) and be a snowbomb for Atlanta.


----------



## Crickett

rjcruiser said:


> My pipes have already burst...and precautions have been taken so that it doesn't happen again.
> 
> Bring on the snow!!!!


----------



## todd03blown

Matt.M said:


> This far out?  It's going to move west (like it always does) and be a snowbomb for Atlanta.



...that is the trend supposedly..I sure hope it follows that progression...west and a little north.


----------



## LIGHTNING

todd03blown said:


> Boy, the weather message boards and FB wx sites are going haywire right now...LOL!!



Can you pm me some of these sites?


----------



## todd03blown

LIGHTNING said:


> Can you pm me some of these sites?



Sure. Just sent the info over.


----------



## jesnic

LIGHTNING said:


> Can you pm me some of these sites?



Lightning, I would love to see these sites also.


----------



## jesnic

DDD said:


> Lots to talk about tonight... what bigox posted is just one run of the GFS.  It tends to be really supressed at this length of time, so I am impressed and there is A LOT to discuss.
> 
> I should have an update sometime after 8PM tonight.



Waiting patiently


----------



## mewabbithunter

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1/971891_613056872076261_1239579532_n.jpg


----------



## NCHillbilly

It's been about 4 days since we saw temps up to freezing here (including daytime highs,) and will be about Sunday before we do. Supposed to be 0 tonight. Then 0 again Tuesday night. I'm ready for spring.


----------



## 25.06

NCHillbilly said:


> It's been about 4 days since we saw temps up to freezing here (including daytime highs,) and will be about Sunday before we do. Supposed to be 0 tonight. Then 0 again Tuesday night. I'm ready for spring.



Ready for spring x 2


----------



## jcountry

Quit whining !    We want snow!!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Guess it wasn't a good night to wash bathroom rugs that can't be dried in the dryer.


----------



## nickel back

NCHillbilly said:


> It's been about 4 days since we saw temps up to freezing here (including daytime highs,) and will be about Sunday before we do. Supposed to be 0 tonight. Then 0 again Tuesday night. I'm ready for spring.





25.06 said:


> Ready for spring x 2



move to Fla........


----------



## nickel back

we need this  coastal Low to move west some plz.


----------



## DDD

Ya'll want a little weather update?


----------



## keithsto

DDD said:


> Ya'll want a little weather update?



Of course!


----------



## topfuelgirl

We are waiting!!!!!


----------



## Msteele

Bring it!


----------



## Greene728

Sunny and 75?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Weather update it is cold outside and waycross and macon could get snow next week.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

DDD said:


> Ya'll want a little weather update?


Nah, 48 of us are sitting around reading the ads on this thread...


----------



## adavis

UBER-DIESEL said:


> Nah, 48 of us are sitting around reading the ads on this thread...



Lol. There's ads? Looks like I'll be keeping my truck plugged in at night for a while!


----------



## DDD

Ok.

So while sitting at my desk today my phone dings... then dings again... then dings again... and again.  My weather geek friends and a cousin of mine that is a MET with the US navy is texting me.  The EURO has come out and its snow... serious snow.

I fire the computer up and have a look...  What's the fuss?

Pretty amazing stuff... and now as I type this the GFS is starting to come around to a similar solution.

Basically, a strong cold front with a ton of energy swings through.  As it swings through it causes Low Pressure to pop out of the Gulf, the Low crosses out into the Atlantic side somewhere between Savannah and Charleston.  Then the Low Pressure goes boom.

The snow spreads from East to West.  Charleston and Savannah are covered up in snow. I call it a back door snow storm.  

What usually happens in these types of set ups is with every  24 hours the system usually comes westward.  The ideal situation would be that the Low pops sooner, comes slightly north and you would have a snow bomb on top of GA. and snow would spread back to Alabama and would track Eastward and hit SC and NC and go out to sea and laugh at everyone from Virginia northward.

What are the problems I see?

The strength of the cold that comes with this energy is flat out amazingly cold.  What worries me about that is the cold tends to push the moisture south.  It holds the Low pressure south.  

IF it doesn't hold it south, the snow would fall and then we would not come above freezing for 3 days at least.


----------



## jesnic

Good report DDD. Can't wait to see further updates. Any idea of when we might expect anything in Hotlanta?


----------



## Mountainbuck

What's the dates for this event? Could it come as far north as dalton?


----------



## topfuelgirl

Thank you DDD! Keep us posted!!


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> What's the dates for this event? Could it come as far north as dalton?



There is so much time there are tons of solutions.  Everything from snow bomb, to nothing to 33° and raining.  

This event is progged to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so we are actually almost inside of 7 days out.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Thanks DDD. That's the night I go on call great no fun for me


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Looking down the road to next week... wow, what a cold shot of winter on the horizon!
> 
> 2 models are showing a winter storm for the SE, but all models are showing some serious, serious cold coming.
> 
> We could actually drop below 0 and I am not talking about the wind chill.  Also, it would not be a 2 day hit of cold like the last time.  IT would be long lived.  The way the high pressure slides over us after the cold shot, locks the cold in.
> 
> Today is Wednesday.... we are talking 8-9 days away.



How are you thinking about temps at this point for the metro area around I-20 and North?


----------



## bml

bml said:


> How are you thinking about temps at this point for the metro area around I-20 and North?



Basically, are you still leaning toward the single digit cold.....


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> Basically, are you still leaning toward the single digit cold.....



If the High pressure slides in over us then yes.  It will be stupid cold.

If the high pressure slides in over a snow covered ground... have mercy how cold it will actually get.


----------



## Crickett

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Guess it wasn't a good night to wash bathroom rugs that can't be dried in the dryer.


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> Ok.
> 
> So while sitting at my desk today my phone dings... then dings again... then dings again... and again.  My weather geek friends and a cousin of mine that is a MET with the US navy is texting me.  The EURO has come out and its snow... serious snow.
> 
> I fire the computer up and have a look...  What's the fuss?
> 
> Pretty amazing stuff... and now as I type this the GFS is starting to come around to a similar solution.
> 
> Basically, a strong cold front with a ton of energy swings through.  As it swings through it causes Low Pressure to pop out of the Gulf, the Low crosses out into the Atlantic side somewhere between Savannah and Charleston.  Then the Low Pressure goes boom.
> 
> The snow spreads from East to West.  Charleston and Savannah are covered up in snow. I call it a back door snow storm.
> 
> What usually happens in these types of set ups is with every  24 hours the system usually comes westward.  The ideal situation would be that the Low pops sooner, comes slightly north and you would have a snow bomb on top of GA. and snow would spread back to Alabama and would track Eastward and hit SC and NC and go out to sea and laugh at everyone from Virginia northward.
> 
> What are the problems I see?
> 
> The strength of the cold that comes with this energy is flat out amazingly cold.  What worries me about that is the cold tends to push the moisture south.  It holds the Low pressure south.
> 
> IF it doesn't hold it south, the snow would fall and then we would not come above freezing for 3 days at least.


----------



## DDD

Also, just for giggles... the EURO and it's ensembles are showing between 5-10" of snow for Savannah.  LOL... oh my how crazy would that be???


----------



## orrb

wow that is just crazy.  we are hoping for snow here in paulding county.  All though it never happens


----------



## clairol

DDD said:


> Also, just for giggles... the EURO and it's ensembles are showing between 5-10" of snow for Savannah.  LOL... oh my how crazy would that be???



woohoo!  I promise to post lots of pictures if we get snow      too early for the bread and milk run?


----------



## GA DAWG

Maybe savannah will get it then and not north ga. I can't coon hunt in snow. Plus Im off work those days next week. Don't wanna be called in


----------



## SGADawg

DDD, any chance we might get some of that white stuff all the way down here in Coffee Co. Ga?


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Also, just for giggles... the EURO and it's ensembles are showing between 5-10" of snow for Savannah.  LOL... oh my how crazy would that be???


SavReds will just be........well lets just say he will be happy!!


----------



## jcountry

It is snowing pretty hard in Baton Rouge tonight.

(And some of it is sticking-to cars and grass and such.)


----------



## Mountainbuck

Thursday is in our local forecast this morn. And isn't sh


----------



## Mountainbuck

Isn't showing anything. Must be gonna stay south


----------



## blood on the ground

Only got down to 10 f in north Paulding! Thought it was going to get cold? Lol!


----------



## nickel back

Mountainbuck said:


> Isn't showing anything. Must be gonna stay south



TV heads are not going to say much yet, you gots to give them a day or 2 more before they will speak of it.

with that said there is much that could change with a   southern stream system

how far west or east does the low set up

the jet stream/trough......

I'm just  so I would really wait on DDD he knows much more than I do about this stuff


----------



## bankdawg

the latest euro doesnt look good.  this thing might be a swing and a miss.


----------



## DDD

The EURO still brings a light snow to northern half of GA, but Augusta and Savannah are the big winners with the latest run of the EURO and the Canadian.

You can not hang your bets on every model run.  This thing will ebb and flow from now to Wednesday.

If you don't read anything else I say.... the trend is what you need to watch.

and yes, the GFS has a system still on tap for Friday.


----------



## Brian Groce

7Deg In Taylorsville this morning@6:45AM.
It was cold checking traps.


----------



## DDD

Also to note, after looking at some maps...

The GFS is starting to change it's tune and it's more west and starting to pick up on what the EURO is putting down.

I can tell you for absolute certain, I would not put a whole lot of stock in any 1 model run of any model until about Monday.  The energy up in the northern reaches is not going to be sampled good until that time frame.

So sit back, enjoy the weekend and the post on the board, cause I suppose it's going to be a wild and crazy ride with each model run until Monday and then you can jump up and down with the threat of snow or cry in your beer because you have to go to work with no snow on the ground.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> The EURO still brings a light snow to northern half of GA, but Augusta and Savannah are the big winners with the latest run of the EURO and the Canadian.
> 
> You can not hang your bets on every model run.  This thing will ebb and flow from now to Wednesday.
> 
> If you don't read anything else I say.... the trend is what you need to watch.
> 
> and yes, the GFS has a system still on tap for Friday.



well which way is the trend going?


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> well which way is the trend going?



I will tell you tomorrow.

A trend in weather usually needs about 48 hours to give you a picture.

Ensemble members from the EURO are dynamite.  The operational run was less QPF, but the GFS has a completely different look now after the 6Z run.

It's going to be another 24-48 hours before the picture gets a whole lot less fuzzy.

Vegas would not even lay odds right now.  Too early.


----------



## savreds

RUTTNBUCK said:


> SavReds will just be........well lets just say he will be happy!!



he put that in there just for me!

If it comes true there will be two very happy sons at my house and one very mad son up at UGA if they don't get very much.  
The stars and the moon and the planets and some other stuff all have to be aligned just right for us to get any of the white stuff but we are way past due for a little bit of it.


----------



## DDD

savreds said:


> he put that in there just for me!
> 
> If it comes true there will be two very happy sons at my house and one very mad son up at UGA if they don't get very much.
> The stars and the moon and the planets and some other stuff all have to be aligned just right for us to get any of the white stuff but we are way past due for a little bit of it.



Well don't show this  map of the Canadian model to the son in Athens and buddy... get out the sleds in Savannah if it comes to pass.


----------



## DDD

Yes.  That is 12"+ in Savannah if that map came true.


----------



## PappyHoel

Is that map saying no snow for NE Ga?


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> Is that map saying no snow for NE Ga?



That would be correct.  It's a back door snow maker.

The snow will migrate from East to West.  The coast will have higher snow ratios and will be closer to the center of the Low.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> That would be correct.  It's a back door snow maker.
> 
> The snow will migrate from East to West.  The coast will have higher snow ratios and will be closer to the center of the Low.



Interesting and rare.


----------



## marknga

Matthew East weather forecast


----------



## DDD

marknga said:


> Matthew East weather forecast



I follow Matthew on Twitter and have talked to him via email a few times.

I start every morning watching the Carolina video that he produces.  He always includes GA in his maps and will even talk about the weather there when it is warranted.  Many times it transfers into what is coming for them over in his forecast area.


----------



## marknga

I believe you were the one that suggested his videos on here a couple years ago. The guys at work are always asking me "What does your Woody's guy say?"
Thanks for all your post.


----------



## nickel back

ddd said:


> i will tell you tomorrow.
> 
> A trend in weather usually needs about 48 hours to give you a picture.
> 
> Ensemble members from the euro are dynamite.  The operational run was less qpf, but the gfs has a completely different look now after the 6z run.
> 
> It's going to be another 24-48 hours before the picture gets a whole lot less fuzzy.
> 
> Vegas would not even lay odds right now.  Too early.



10/4


----------



## DDD

marknga said:


> I believe you were the one that suggested his videos on here a couple years ago. The guys at work are always asking me "What does your Woody's guy say?"
> Thanks for all your post.



Yep.  I believe I did.  

Great guy.  Very down to earth and doesn't hype anything.  Glen Burns could take some lessons.

My early prediction is this:

The GFS will come around to what the EURO has dealt out.  Then the tv guys will start to chatter.

If anything remotely close comes to verifying in Savannah like is modeled by the EURO, it will be something for the history books.


----------



## orrb

awe I am bummed.  oh well maybe next time.  Thanks DDD for keeping us informed.  We love to hear your projections..


----------



## nickel back

I hope it moves north west some......


----------



## gacowboy

DDD said:


> I follow Matthew on Twitter and have talked to him via email a few times.
> 
> I start every morning watching the Carolina video that he produces.  He always includes GA in his maps and will even talk about the weather there when it is warranted.  Many times it transfers into what is coming for them over in his forecast area.



Good tip, I just followed Matthew East on Twitter. 
Thanks DDD for keeping us informed !!


----------



## nickel back

heard its snowing in  PENSACOLA.....


----------



## NCHillbilly

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Guess it wasn't a good night to wash bathroom rugs that can't be dried in the dryer.



  



nickel back said:


> move to Fla........



Move to Minnesota.  



DDD said:


> Well don't show this  map of the Canadian model to the son in Athens and buddy... get out the sleds in Savannah if it comes to pass.



Looks like a perfect snow scenario-y'all get what you want and I get a break from it. It's already snowed 3 times this week here. 

It was -2 here this morning.


----------



## Matt.M

Hey winter storm - MOVE WEST.


----------



## Greene728

Matt.M said:


> Hey winter storm - MOVE WEST.



Hey winter storm,
Ignore him!


----------



## nickel back

NCHillbilly said:


> Move to Minnesota.



no that's to cold.......


----------



## DDD

Canadian model is a major hit for GA, SC and NC.   It says... get the sleds out... again... follow the trend and not so much exactly what the model says.

GFS will be out shortly followed by the EURO


----------



## DDD

Per the Canadian, Savannah and parts of S. GA would be between 12-15" of snow if I went strictly off of what it is showing.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Canadian model is a major hit for GA, SC and NC.   It says... get the sleds out... again... follow the trend and not so much exactly what the model says.
> 
> GFS will be out shortly followed by the EURO



sounds good, hope the GFS has Ga. covered up.


----------



## savreds

DDD said:


> Well don't show this  map of the Canadian model to the son in Athens and buddy... get out the sleds in Savannah if it comes to pass.



The son at UGA just sent me a text saying that he is coming home next weekend if this storm happens. He follows what DDD says also. We used to call him the family meteorologist when he was younger. Now he constantly checks the mountain weather site to see when he can find a good excuse to head to the Smokies to go hike and camp in the snow.
If we got anywhere close to even half of what the models are showing, it will be an absolute nightmare down here with the way these idiots drive. 

BRANG ON DA SNOW!!!


----------



## DDD

nickel back said:


> sounds good, hope the GFS has Ga. covered up.



GFS says the cold is too much and shoves the Low south and gives us cold dry... nothing.


----------



## bigox911

nickel back said:


> sounds good, hope the GFS has Ga. covered up.



Step in the right direction, but not there yet


----------



## DDD

bigox911 said:


> Step in the right direction, but not there yet



To Ox's point, the GFS pops a Gulf Low due to the energy coming with the front.  However it shoves the precip over Florida and out to sea...

However... NWS says the GFS is not handling it right...  They are starting to lean toward the EURO and Canadian model:



> THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH A NERN US LOW THAT BRINGS A TRAILING
> COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
> COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
> FOLLOWING COUPLE DAYS.  HOWEVER IN THE MON-WED PERIOD DIFFERENCES
> EMERGE WITH THE EXACT HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
> THROUGH MID-CONTINENT INTO THE ERN STATES.  ISSUES ALOFT LEAD TO
> MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW DETAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST/EAST
> COAST.  RECENT ECMWF RUNS ARE ON THE SHARPER/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE
> SPREAD WITH THEIR SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A SURFACE LOW ON THE WRN
> SIDE OF THE SPREAD INTO WED/THU.  *THIS SOLTUION HAS INCREASINGLY
> FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM RECENT ECMWF MEANS...AND GIVEN RECENT
> HISTORY IN THIS PATTERN RECENT GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SCENARIOS
> MAY BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE. * WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED
> POTENTIAL FOR WINTERY PCPN OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
> COMPARED TO CONTINUITY AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW BRINGS A BIT
> MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN ONSHORE COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC
> ECMWF.  THIS SEEMS MORE CONSISTENT WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED MEAN
> MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> To Ox's point, the GFS pops a Gulf Low due to the energy coming with the front. However it shoves the precip over Florida and out to sea...
> 
> However... NWS says the GFS is not handling it right... They are starting to lean toward the EURO and Canadian model:


 

Stupid stupid GFS - we always get screwed on the snow.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> To Ox's point, the GFS pops a Gulf Low due to the energy coming with the front.  However it shoves the precip over Florida and out to sea...
> 
> However... NWS says the GFS is not handling it right...  They are starting to lean toward the EURO and Canadian model:



so right now for the most part this will be a snow in the very southeast part of Ga. and the coast or am I looking at this wrong......


----------



## PappyHoel

Weather underground show 4" snow for savannah ga tues night into wed.  Nothing for north ga.


----------



## JonathanG2013

That would be crazy for Savannah to get 4 to 6 inches of snow and N Georgia to get nothing.


----------



## DDD

Latest run of the EURO is a swing and miss.  Only the coast sees snow.  SAV is in snow as well as Charleston but points inland are dry.

What is interesting is the energy was well West of where was in the last 2 runs of the EURO, so just because it doesn't show snow for us as an outcome, I like that it starts farther West.

Otherwise, nothing to see here move along...

Right now I am sorta neutral... I could see where this could turn into nothing and i could see where this could be a huge hit... need more time and more model runs.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> Latest run of the EURO is a swing and miss. Only the coast sees snow. SAV is in snow as well as Charleston but points inland are dry.
> 
> What is interesting is the energy was well West of where was in the last 2 runs of the EURO, so just because it doesn't show snow for us as an outcome, I like that it starts farther West.
> 
> Otherwise, nothing to see here move along...
> 
> Right now I am sorta neutral... I could see where this could turn into nothing and i could see where this could be a huge hit... need more time and more model runs.


 

Stupid stupid EURO....


----------



## DDD

I wish I had good news, but I don't.  

The 18Z GFS completely lost any storm whatsoever and when I say lost it.... I mean... lost it.  There is nothing there.

I don't like the trend.  

It could be that the GFS is simply having issues getting a good handle on the energy that is not being sampled very well.

It could be that the GFS is out to lunch, but I don't like it right now.    The players are on the field but they are not lining up right on the GFS.  

Yes.  I will be staying up for the GFS tonight and the EURO and the Canadian model runs.


----------



## Robbie101

I wish it would wait another week lol. Next week is the Mens conference and this is my first time going. It won't really hurt my feelings at all if it bypasses us. 

Sorry but I really wanna go see Pastor Johnny Hunt spread the word!!!!

Ok I'll take my  now


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> I wish I had good news, but I don't.
> 
> The 18Z GFS completely lost any storm whatsoever and when I say lost it.... I mean... lost it.  There is nothing there.
> 
> I don't like the trend.
> 
> It could be that the GFS is simply having issues getting a good handle on the energy that is not being sampled very well.
> 
> It could be that the GFS is out to lunch, but I don't like it right now.    The players are on the field but they are not lining up right on the GFS.
> 
> Yes.  I will be staying up for the GFS tonight and the EURO and the Canadian model runs.



Is my thinking wrong that the GFS does not do well looking out so far?


----------



## Greene728

I'm on the fence. I'd really like to see a good snow without any ice. But I sure could do without the bitter, bitter cold. Makes firefighting no fun at all! We had a outbuilding and woods fire last night about 1am and my bunker coat was a sheet of ice from the overspay in minutes. I still can't feel all my fingertips.


----------



## Matthew6

Hopefully it will all slide up the coast and snow 3 feet on the Pennsylvania Yankees.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> Hopefully it will all slide up the coast and snow 3 feet on the Pennsylvania Yankees.



Now your talking!!  Calling for 2-4"tomorrow.


----------



## Patriot44

In the process of buying more land.  This time in NW WVa, near my wife's family farm.  Will have snow next year, here or not.


----------



## panfried0419

Made it to Gatlinburg! Snow everywhere! 1-3" tomorrow


----------



## DDD

So here is some good news... the NAM is trying very hard to make a snow bomb for the SE.  It only goes to 84 hours out and right at the 84 hour mark it is very, very close to going boom!

That is a good sign as the NAM is a bi-product of the GFS.  Super interested in what the next run of the GFS cranks out.


----------



## LIGHTNING

When is the gfs due out. Thanks for keeping us posted.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> So here is some good news... the NAM is trying very hard to make a snow bomb for the SE.  It only goes to 84 hours out and right at the 84 hour mark it is very, very close to going boom!
> 
> That is a good sign as the NAM is a bi-product of the GFS.  Super interested in what the next run of the GFS cranks out.


Crossing fingers we end up with a decent snow!


----------



## DDD

LIGHTNING said:


> When is the gfs due out. Thanks for keeping us posted.



The GFS is a nothing storm.  BUT... I think it's on crack.

What it does with the energy is almost not possible.  I think the GFS is struggling badly because of sampling.


This system reminds me of Jan 2011.  The models had it 5-6 days out and then they lost it... for days... You boys remember?  

That thread #III and #IV were Woody's gold.  I have read over them for the last hour looking at pics of model runs that I posted.  Comparing what was happening vs. what is happening with this system.

They are very similar.  The devil is in the details.  More time ladies and gents... more time...


----------



## gobbleinwoods

DDD said:


> The GFS is a nothing storm.  BUT... I think it's on crack.
> 
> What it does with the energy is almost not possible.  I think the GFS is struggling badly because of sampling.
> 
> 
> This system reminds me of Jan 2011.  The models had it 5-6 days out and then they lost it... for days... You boys remember?
> 
> That thread #III and #IV were Woody's gold.  I have read over them for the last hour looking at pics of model runs that I posted.  Comparing what was happening vs. what is happening with this system.
> 
> They are very similar.  The devil is in the details.  More time ladies and gents... more time...



more time to snow is what many want!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Sposed to snow here again today. As usual.


----------



## panfried0419

NCHillbilly said:


> Sposed to snow here again today. As usual.


Already is here in Gatlinburg


----------



## PappyHoel

panfried0419 said:


> Already is here in Gatlinburg



Need pictures!  I love the G'burg.


----------



## WickedKwik

NAM says game on...


----------



## Resica

Snowing here!


----------



## Resica

Hi there.


----------



## PappyHoel

Resica said:


> Hi there.



Hi Resica send some this way and stop hoarding the snow.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Does it still look to be just a snow event for the southern part of ga? Or is it coming north some?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Resica said:


> Hi there.


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Hi there.



You need 3 more feet.


----------



## NCHillbilly

It's snowing here. Of course.


----------



## PappyHoel

NCHillbilly said:


> It's snowing here. Of course.



If I didn't know better I would say you lived in Alaska.  The crazy thing is you only live like 150 miles from me.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> You need 3 more feet.



Next week!


----------



## bankdawg

Mountainbuck said:


> Does it still look to be just a snow event for the southern part of ga? Or is it coming north some?



from what i'm seeing, looks like a miss for everyone except extreme eastern carolinas


----------



## Mountainbuck

Man we've had a lot of cold temps this jan. maybe feb. will bring us some white stuff


----------



## Hornet22

I hate cold weather


----------



## Matt.M

Doesn't look good for tues/wed storm.  UGH.


----------



## Mountainbuck

We've wasted so much cold air . Probably be 105 everyday this summer hahah


----------



## DDD

The GFS and the EURO are not showing any love for North GA.

The NAM and the SERF model is what I like to watch inside of 3 days.  We are almost there.  The long range NAM nails South and Central GA.  

Right now I think the GFS and the NAM are in suppression city.  As I mentioned last night, this storm reminds me of Jan. 2011.

If you really love weather and want a history lesson go back and read Weather Thread 2010-2011 III and IV.  The models lost the storm... I mean lost it.  Everyone freaked out and the local t.v. stations would not even hint at it.  Inside of 36 hours the models started picking it up again and the NWS and every t.v. met in ATL panicked.   Glen Burns took credit for calling it when he was not.  Go back and read those threads.  It was awesomeness.

The runs starting tonight on the 0Z through all day tomorrow is what I will be watching.  The sampling of the energy will be much, much better.  There are some pieces of energy off the California coast that I believe the GFS is not sampling AT ALL and the NAM is starting to see it but can't quite figure out what to do with it.


But for now... Macon Southward... feast your eyes... 

Tacomania!


----------



## Matt.M

Another model run.  15z SERF.

But really, listen to DDD, these models are going to flip-flop a lot before tomorrow night.


----------



## DDD

NWS just tweeted a picture... they are thinking wide spread ice.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> NWS just tweeted a picture... they are thinking wide spread ice.



When


----------



## DDD

Nws:


----------



## DDD

mrs. hornet22 said:


> When



Late Tuesday into Wednesday here.

Yall got a generator over there on that side of the hill??


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD is the ice for the south ga coast or us in north Ga also?


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Nws:



Definetly don't like this model.


----------



## Jeff C.

I remember a snow event back in the late 80's DDD that snowed from Macon south. It was 1988 to be exact. It even snowed in New Orleans which is very rare, and I was down there for a buddy's wedding. My brother was driving down from here and hit snow @ Macon all the way to N.O., La.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD is the ice for the south ga coast or us in north Ga also?



Ice or snow on the coast is a tricky thing.  One of which I am not really versed at.   The cold has to be deep and extreme for that to happen.

That being said, Pensecola and Mobile are worried about freezing rain and sleet now for Monday and Tuesday night down there on the coast.

This to me is going to be one of those systems that may surprise a lot of people and quite frankly could turn nasty in the way of ice.

I will say it again.  From tonights midnightish runs of the GFS, NAM, EURO and SERF and every run until the ones midnight on Sunday are Key.  VERY, VERY Key.

The energy in the atmosphere is what will drive this system.  All of the models are handling it differently almost every 6 hours...  Time will tell the tale.


----------



## bml

You gonna be stain' up late?


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> You gonna be stain' up late?



If a frog had wings would he bump his?????


----------



## bml

I know we have all been mostly focused on where the precip will be, and if it will be ice or snow, but how are temps affected by some of the variables you have been discussing, such as the energy off the Pacific Coast? Is there a trend showing up for temps at this point?


----------



## Gumswamp

Weather channel at 5:45 mentioned snow for the SE on Tuesday but did not give any specifics.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> If a frog had wings would he bump his?????




We juss love you Triple D


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> I know we have all been mostly focused on where the precip will be, and if it will be ice or snow, but how are temps affected by some of the variables you have been discussing, such as the energy off the Pacific Coast? Is there a trend showing up for temps at this point?



Cold is not going to be a problem.   When I talk about energy, you have energy with any front.  That is why you get sever storms in the spring.  

This "energy" brings with it very cold temps.  However, in the case of south and central Georgia, you have cold air invading at the same time warm gulf moisture is running up over it.  Dropping rain not snow to the surface.   Much farther north up in Atlanta, the layers of the atmosphere are much colder and depending on how deep the cold is, will either produce sleet or if deep enough will produce snow.

No matter what happens, when this system moves through, it is going to be bitterly cold.  There is not a lot of focus on that because the precip type is so questionable now.

Did that answer your question?


----------



## bml

Yes, quite helpful. Thanks!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

I think it's gonna do something this go round.


----------



## lbzdually

It's supposed to be 8 Wednesday morning.  good news is a bunch of fire-ants have bit the dust because of this.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> Cold is not going to be a problem.   When I talk about energy, you have energy with any front.  That is why you get sever storms in the spring.
> 
> This "energy" brings with it very cold temps.  However, in the case of south and central Georgia, you have cold air invading at the same time warm gulf moisture is running up over it.  Dropping rain not snow to the surface.   Much farther north up in Atlanta, the layers of the atmosphere are much colder and depending on how deep the cold is, will either produce sleet or if deep enough will produce snow.
> 
> No matter what happens, when this system moves through, it is going to be bitterly cold.  There is not a lot of focus on that because the precip type is so questionable now.
> 
> Did that answer your question?


----------



## DDD

well... if you are into pics...

Albany hits the sweet spot at 10+"


----------



## Mountainbuck

Some of the maps above have north ga under the precip?


----------



## Mountainbuck

We'll at least in the ice map


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> Some of the maps above have north ga under the precip?



What I just posted is a S GA special.  N GA is just going to school and work wishing they were in south GA with that map.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Don't say it DDD  I wants the snow in chatsworth !!


----------



## bankdawg

DDD said:


> well... if you are into pics...
> 
> Albany hits the sweet spot at 10+"



in 70 degree weather?


----------



## panfried0419

Everything I see for next weekend is 60 and rain. That's for Pendergrass.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Dry air will suck up the moisture. No snow.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Tues night.


----------



## DDD

Migmack said:


> Dry air will suck up the moisture. No snow.



That makes absolutely no sense.  

If you made an intelligent statement like, the cold air will push the moisture south, then I could say ok, that's a possibility... But when you say the dry air will soak the moisture up.... ummm... no.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> That makes absolutely no sense.
> 
> If you made an intelligent statement like, the cold air will push the moisture south, then I could say ok, that's a possibility... But when you say the dry air will soak the moisture up.... ummm... no.



I said suck up.. the cold dry air will vaporize the snow before it hits the ground.


----------



## DDD

Migmack said:


> I said suck up.. the cold dry air will vaporize the snow before it hits the ground.



Uh huh... and you base this statement on what exactly?


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

My knowledge of the south in the winter. I don't need models.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> Uh huh... and you base this statement on what exactly?



Forgive Migmack 3D - his folks called him "special".


----------



## DDD

Migmack said:


> My knowledge of the south in the winter. I don't need models.






My favorite.

Make sure you check your woolly worms, check to see which way the birds are flying, lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and don't forget to look at the bank sign and the water fountain downtown to give you an accurate check of your dewpoint and temp.

I could waste a bunch of time and space on Woody's disproving your GUT feelings, but its not worth my time.

Come Wednesday you can explain to me how its snowing.

One piece of advice, look up "saturation rates" or "saturation of the atmosphere".... oh wait... you have your knowledge of the south... forget that.

Just rub your Dale Earnhardt commemorative plate and give us a weather forecast.

Also, since there won't be any snow... there won't be any need to be on the weather thread right?   Right.


----------



## GA DAWG

If triple D says its gonna snow..its gonna snow..just keep it south and we'll be ok


----------



## whitetaco02

DDD said:


> Tacomania!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> My favorite.
> 
> Make sure you check your woolly worms, check to see which way the birds are flying, lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and don't forget to look at the bank sign and the water fountain downtown to give you an accurate check of your dewpoint and temp.
> 
> I could waste a bunch of time and space on Woody's disproving your GUT feelings, but its not worth my time.
> 
> Come Wednesday you can explain to me how its snowing.
> 
> One piece of advice, look up "saturation rates" or "saturation of the atmosphere".... oh wait... you have your knowledge of the south... forget that.
> 
> Just rub your Dale Earnhardt commemorative plate and give us a weather forecast.
> 
> Also, since there won't be any snow... there won't be any need to be on the weather thread right?   Right.


:


----------



## DDD

NAM is running and I think... I think it is on the verge of something big...

Wait for it... Wait for it...


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> NAM is running and I think... I think it is on the verge of something big...
> 
> Wait for it... Wait for it...


----------



## DDD

One thing is for sure... Panama City Beach, FL... they may have an ice problem.  Seriously.

EDIT:  The whole gulf coast may have an ice problem...  Does Coastal towns have salt trucks???


----------



## frisbeefan

Migmack said:


> I said suck up.. the cold dry air will vaporize the snow before it hits the ground.



It won't snow on the short bus......guaranteed !


----------



## southerngentleman

What about taco's backyard?


----------



## DDD

Alright... the NAM is so close to turning into a snow bomb... I am now liking the trend of the models.

One thing that has me really concerned... like, the NWS offices in my opinion are going to have to start sounding the alarm soon... probably by tomorrow afternoon if this trend continues.  The problem is this:

The way the atmosphere is going to be... it's going to be a very strict cut off line between snow and ice.  What I mean (maybe I will do a map later... tomorrow) is that in my mind, somewhere south of Macon down to say Live Oak, Florida rain is going to fall into some very dry cold air.  As that rain falls its going to cool the atmosphere even more (evaporational cooling) and the amount of moisture that is being shown would lay down somewhere between .5-.75" of ICE in places that are not use to seeing ICE.  

Once that happens the extreme cold that will slide in behind it will solidfy it for a couple of days.

Am I saying that is going to happen?  No, but the NAM has that idea on it's mind.

This run of the NAM puts more snow north of Macon than previous model runs.


----------



## DDD

And for the snow lovers in south GA and Alabama... hold your breath...

6-10" of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus. It also has almost 12" around Dothan, AL.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Looking foward to your map tommorow!!


----------



## Paint Brush

DDD is the cold air sitting over north ga. keeping the moisture pushed south or is this just the storm track.


----------



## DDD

I am going to say this too... if the GFS and the EURO do not show something similar, I caution against those totals and that solution.  This time tomorrow I will feel much more comfortable about making a call map or claiming that the cold air is going to suck up the snow.


----------



## bankdawg

wow DDD...what would you say about cordele/50 miles south of macon?  ice??


----------



## DDD

Paint Brush said:


> DDD is the cold air sitting over north ga. keeping the moisture pushed south or is this just the storm track.



It has to do with the High pressure up over Canada.  If you can imagine, a bumper pool table and the ball is the energy that taps the moisture out of the gulf.  There is bumper over Alaska and there is one over central Canada.

The energy rolls over the bumper in Alaska, goes between it and the bumper over Canada.  When it does that it drags the bumper over Canada with it.  Down to the South west US it goes... now... if that high pressure (the bumper over Canada) comes too far south, it will keep the moisture on the coast because it's too pressurized to let the Low pressure in the gulf come north.  So the ball rolls along the coast, across Florida, into the Atlantic and up the coast a bit and then out to sea.

We need the energy coming from up north to connect with the Low pressure and become "one".  This will create the snow bomb and moisture will break out within the cold air "bumper" and it will be pure awesomeness.


LOL.... that explain it?


----------



## Greene728

DDD said:


> My favorite.
> 
> Make sure you check your woolly worms, check to see which way the birds are flying, lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and don't forget to look at the bank sign and the water fountain downtown to give you an accurate check of your dewpoint and temp.
> 
> I could waste a bunch of time and space on Woody's disproving your GUT feelings, but its not worth my time.
> 
> Come Wednesday you can explain to me how its snowing.
> 
> One piece of advice, look up "saturation rates" or "saturation of the atmosphere".... oh wait... you have your knowledge of the south... forget that.
> 
> Just rub your Dale Earnhardt commemorative plate and give us a weather forecast.
> 
> Also, since there won't be any snow... there won't be any need to be on the weather thread right?   Right.




LOL.....

You been told!!!  

Thanks for your time and effort DDD!


----------



## DDD

Well... let the bread and milk runs begin....


----------



## Greene728

Thats too close. Needs to go a little further south. 
I really wanna hear Migmack give a snow report!


----------



## DDD

GFS is running... she's stronger and more west.... thats what we want...


----------



## bml

Several of the local meteorologist are starting to come around now, lightly touching on the possibility of winter precip.


----------



## Paint Brush

DDD said:


> It has to do with the High pressure up over Canada.  If you can imagine, a bumper pool table and the ball is the energy that taps the moisture out of the gulf.  There is bumper over Alaska and there is one over central Canada.
> 
> The energy rolls over the bumper in Alaska, goes between it and the bumper over Canada.  When it does that it drags the bumper over Canada with it.  Down to the South west US it goes... now... if that high pressure (the bumper over Canada) comes too far south, it will keep the moisture on the coast because it's too pressurized to let the Low pressure in the gulf come north.  So the ball rolls along the coast, across Florida, into the Atlantic and up the coast a bit and then out to sea.
> 
> We need the energy coming from up north to connect with the Low pressure and become "one".  This will create the snow bomb and moisture will break out within the cold air "bumper" and it will be pure awesomeness.
> 
> 
> LOL.... that explain it?



 Excellent explanation : Man this stuff is addicting and I need to get to bed. For goodness sakes the storm is 3 days away. LOL


----------



## DDD

The GFS is trending exactly the way it should.  It should also be pointed out that the GFS is very much like the NAM.  

I would advise you, if you live in the areas outlined by the call map above by Channel 3... I would start to think about what I am going to do if the power goes out.

With the GFS starting to look a lot like the NAM... I would start to think.

Tomorrow will be the day.   The sampling of the energy will be really good and the models will really start to dial it in.


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Well... let the bread and milk runs begin....



10-15" in Dothan Alabama???

Has that ever happened historically? (Not that I really expect anyone to know that...)


----------



## bml

Either way, it looks like 75 between Tifton and Macon is gonna be a real mess.


----------



## DDD

It is completely possible that everyone north of I-20 could simply be sitting in the stand watching the game south of I-20.  

Truly a historic snow / ice event could be right around the corner for South and Central GA and not to mention coastal sections of Florida over to JAX.


----------



## orrb

Dang Paulding County , misses the fun again.  Oh well, time to get out the home made snow maker..


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> It is completely possible that everyone north of I-20 could simply be sitting in the stand watching the game south of I-20.
> 
> Truly a historic snow / ice event could be right around the corner for South and Central GA and not to mention coastal sections of Florida over to JAX.


----------



## DDD

Last post for the night kids...  

Tomorrow will be the day.  I will try and post before I head off to church in the morning.  

I will try and post from my phone as well.

I like the trend.  It may not do anything IMBY, but I would rather it do something in places where kids and adults don't see much snow if I can't have it.

See ya'll in the morning.


----------



## MTMiller

*Wednesday Morning 7am per GFS*


----------



## MTMiller

*Wednesday Morning 7am per NAM*


----------



## krisjack

It would be pretty kool if we could get and inch or so here in Leesburg.


----------



## ditchdoc24

Brad Nitz just dropped the "S" word in a teaser on Channel 2 News.......


----------



## Jeff C.

My cheap little digital weather station is showing snowflakes in the forecast for Hampton.


----------



## nickel back

ditchdoc24 said:


> Brad Nitz just dropped the "S" word in a teaser on Channel 2 News.......



Brad is pretty good, I have heard some mets. saying the freez line is going to be just below ATL. and central Ga. is going to get rain and sleet.

never know what these type of systems is going to put out at times, there is so much that has to come together for it to all happen

I would like and hope for it to keep the trend west a little more 

what you say DDD, what is the models showing this morning?


----------



## DDD

Real short and quick update before church

Models have come NW a lot. 

The cutoff between lots of snow and nothing is going to be sharp.  Loganville could have 4" and Lawrenceville could have nothing. 

I am not sure how far north and west it will trend, but it's trending.  Today will tell us a lot.


----------



## biggtruxx

How about Walton county? We miss out on the fun?


----------



## Matt.M

It's going to the right direction!!!!!!  Let's do this thing!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Real short and quick update before church
> 
> Models have come NW a lot.
> 
> The cutoff between lots of snow and nothing is going to be sharp.  Loganville could have 4" and Lawrenceville could have nothing.
> 
> I am not sure how far north and west it will trend, but it's trending.  Today will tell us a lot.


When you get back from church, give us your thoughts on the CSRA. Thanks again for the updates and models!


----------



## Matt.M

Latest NAM.  I can't believe the snow totals for these areas.  We still have a bunch time for it to move.


----------



## Jeff C.

Matt.M said:


> Latest NAM.  I can't believe the snow totals for these areas.  We still have a bunch time for it to move.
> 
> View attachment 772603



The one I mentioned earlier in here back in '88 was very rare, but this is unbelievable totals, like you said.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Matt.M said:


> Latest NAM.  I can't believe the snow totals for these areas.  We still have a bunch time for it to move.
> 
> View attachment 772603



That's a good map it needs to go a few miles more north and nail Thomson GA good. That would be pure awesomeness as DDD would say! Burke County gets nailed if that verifies!!


----------



## PappyHoel

No snow for Dawsonville.  My kids are mad at DDD.


----------



## Hardwoods

Keep it south! You folks up north hog all the snow.  Let us south georgians get to play some!


----------



## biggtruxx

Hardwoods said:


> Keep it south! You folks up north hog all the snow.  Let us south georgians get to play some!





Move North  lol


Like the signature though! Go Dawgs!


----------



## Resica

biggtruxx said:


> Move North  lol



Yeah move north!! Picked up 2.5" yesterday. Up to 33.5" for the year.


----------



## Hardwoods

biggtruxx said:


> Move North  lol
> 
> 
> Like the signature though! Go Dawgs!



Nah, I like living in God's country.

Go Dawgs!


----------



## MTMiller

Discussion from NWS:

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...00Z/26 MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
WITH SUCH A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL WE
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH COASTAL SC AND NORTH COASTAL GA. THE EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME SO EVERYONE IS URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS...PROBABLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/WET BULB EFFECTS AS PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND PICKS UP IN INTENSITY. TEMPS SHOULD THEN
FALL INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES...POSSIBLY EVEN TO FREEZING DOWN TO THE GA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...PRECIP LOOKS SLOWER TO DEPART THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET
AND SNOW. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN.


----------



## DDD

Alright... Lots to talk about, look at and think about.

Let me just get this out of the way, going strictly off the the latest NAM and GFS and what I see:  Kennesaw, Marietta over to Gainesville and all points north... Forget it.  You will be lucky to see a flake.

From those points south down to roughly I-20 we will be lucky to see 1-2" of snow.

From roughly I-20 down to say about Perry all points East and West over to Augusta, look at your kids and tell them a big surprise is coming.

Quite frankly right now, I would want to be anywhere from Macon over to Augusta.  I think this will be roughly the sweet spot.

This thing could come a little farther north or farther south.  A 50 mile jog one way or the other will make a HUGE difference.

The snow maps that show 10+" are sort of worthless at this point.  It's what people in the biz call "wish casting".  


So for those praying this thing will come north or west, the models have trended but I just don't think they are going to move a whole lot more than what you see.  One thing for sure, the next 2 runs of model sets, in my mind, will be the cat's meow.


----------



## DDD

I will also go on and say that South of Perry is going to be a real mess.  Depending on cooling, surface temps, wet bulbs... ect... this could be one major ice / sleet storm.

There is so much to look at and consider... it's mind blowing.  Some of the ensemble members are a complete snow plaster from Albany / Tifton over to Savannah.  

Then you have the Canadian model now that says... "What snow?"


----------



## todd03blown

One poster over at talkweather.com just posted this with 3 images. N. GA looks to have a good bit of precip.

here's a look at the 700mb moisture progs for the past 3 GFS runs, centered on Tuesday 7pmEST/6pmCST...northward trend with the deeper moisture especially areas west of the I-75 and I-65 corridors.  For Tennessee, 0z was less than 70% RH for the entire state but 2 model runs later it's >90% RH all the way up to the KY/TN border, lol.  UVV along the gulf coast trending stronger and further north as well, throwing the moisture WELL north to interact with the cold airmass. THIS close to an epic board wide crush job.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Alright... Lots to talk about, look at and think about.
> 
> Let me just get this out of the way, going strictly off the the latest NAM and GFS and what I see:  Kennesaw, Marietta over to Gainesville and all points north... Forget it.  You will be lucky to see a flake.
> 
> From those points south down to roughly I-20 we will be lucky to see 1-2" of snow.
> 
> From roughly I-20 down to say about Perry all points East and West over to Augusta, look at your kids and tell them a big surprise is coming.
> 
> Quite frankly right now, I would want to be anywhere from Macon over to Augusta.  I think this will be roughly the sweet spot.
> 
> This thing could come a little farther north or farther south.  A 50 mile jog one way or the other will make a HUGE difference.
> 
> The snow maps that show 10+" are sort of worthless at this point.  It's what people in the biz call "wish casting".
> 
> 
> So for those praying this thing will come north or west, the models have trended but I just don't think they are going to move a whole lot more than what you see.  One thing for sure, the next 2 runs of model sets, in my mind, will be the cat's meow.


I'll have one happy 10 yo if this hits Thomson


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Yeah move north!! Picked up 2.5" yesterday. Up to 33.5" for the year.


----------



## MTMiller

Hope S. GA gets some good snow!


----------



## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> One poster over at talkweather.com just posted this with 3 images. N. GA looks to have a good bit of precip.
> 
> here's a look at the 700mb moisture progs for the past 3 GFS runs, centered on Tuesday 7pmEST/6pmCST...northward trend with the deeper moisture especially areas west of the I-75 and I-65 corridors.  For Tennessee, 0z was less than 70% RH for the entire state but 2 model runs later it's >90% RH all the way up to the KY/TN border, lol.  UVV along the gulf coast trending stronger and further north as well, throwing the moisture WELL north to interact with the cold airmass. THIS close to an epic board wide crush job.



Looks to warm to me for N Ga.  NOAA says 48 degrees on Tuesday.


----------



## DDD

This is what the HPC (NWS) is thinking.  This is more than likely based off of the SERF which is the only model that brought the snow northward.

This is probably based off of recent storms that trend northward.  But given the strength of the cold air, I just don't know that this solution is going to materialize.  

EDIT:  This would be as of Wednesday noonish.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/w...24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> Looks to warm to me for N Ga.  NOAA says 48 degrees on Tuesday.



I have no idea what you are looking at or if NOAA has not updated your forecast for some reason but there is not a point north of Perry that will break 37° Tuesday.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> This is what the HPC (NWS) is thinking.  This is more than likely based off of the SERF which is the only model that brought the snow northward.
> 
> This is probably based off of recent storms that trend northward.  But given the strength of the cold air, I just don't know that this solution is going to materialize.
> 
> http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/w...24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities



I agree with this.  Fizzled out?


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> I have no idea what you are looking at or if NOAA has not updated your forecast for some reason but there is not a point north of Perry that will break 37° Tuesday.



Says 48 degrees for Tuesday in Dawsonville.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...map=1&searchresult=Dawsonville, GA 30534, USA


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> Says 48 degrees for Tuesday in Dawsonville.
> 
> http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...map=1&searchresult=Dawsonville, GA 30534, USA



Dude... you ok?  It says high of 33????


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> Dude... you ok?  It says high of 33????



Doh... I was looking at Monday.


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


>


----------



## DDD

Maybe your computer is having caching issues?


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> Maybe your computer is having caching issues?


You're correct - I was looking at Monday.  I've derailed your thread enough


----------



## bml

Kids were hoping to get some major snow here in Walnut Grove. An inch or two will still give them enough for some good snowballs though!


----------



## mewabbithunter

I'm keeping the sleds on standby just in case.


----------



## DDD

As I sit here right now ingesting everything... right now.. I think ground Zero is Macon / Perrry over to Augusta.

Right now, here in Dacula I think we will be lucky to see a flake.

I also think Florida could set a historic record for most snow ever.  According to records the most snow every officially measured in Florida was 3.5"

Unfortunately for the folks north of I-20 this just may not be our storm.

Fortunately, for the folks south of I-20 in places that rarely see snow... it looks like your ship has come in.


----------



## bankdawg

i'm 30 miles south of perry, do i miss the cutoff line and get just ice?


----------



## DDD

bankdawg said:


> i'm 30 miles south of perry, do i miss the cutoff line and get just ice?



Negative.  You are good for snow.


----------



## DDD

EURO is running now... and I really like what I see... this might get interesting... keep rolling baby...


----------



## Jeff C.

I'm only 26 mi. south of I-20.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> EURO is running now... and I really like what I see... this might get interesting... keep rolling baby...


----------



## DDD

DDD said:


> EURO is running now... and I really like what I see... this might get interesting... keep rolling baby...



This run of the EURO is a huge step in the right direction... I am so torn.   It's still not a winnner... but it's getting oh so close. 

There are things that make me think I don't want to be in the bullseye just yet.  There are things that make me think it will come north.... but the models just don't bring it north and I look at the HPS that are keeping it pushed south and I just can't see that it will be able to push the High pressure back NW.


Right now please don't take my markers like I-20 as gospel.  It's just a visual and a road marker to give you guys.


----------



## Mountainbuck

One storm at a time but wunderground is several days of snow for chatsworth ga.  In about 12 days


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Triple D, you gots a big audience dude!


----------



## PappyHoel

Mountainbuck said:


> One storm at a time but wunderground is several days of snow for chatsworth ga.  In about 12 days



I saw that too two 2 tu.  However wunder has been doing that all winter then it fades.  Keeping fingers crossed.


----------



## Jeff C.

DDD said:


> This run of the EURO is a huge step in the right direction... I am so torn.   It's still not a winnner... but it's getting oh so close.
> 
> There are things that make me think I don't want to be in the bullseye just yet.  There are things that make me think it will come north.... but the models just don't bring it north and I look at the HPS that are keeping it pushed south and I just can't see that it will be able to push the High pressure back NW.
> 
> 
> Right now please don't take my markers like I-20 as gospel.  It's just a visual and a road marker to give you guys.



No worries, Bro.....I will drive south if I have to.


----------



## GA DAWG

We might have to make a winter weather thread 3 before this is over


----------



## blood on the ground

What did I miss?


----------



## clairol

Are us coastal folks gonna get left out of the snow?  I've already got my sledding hill picked out!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Weather underground now giving a 50% chance of snow  for Thomson.


----------



## DDD

clairol said:


> Are us coastal folks gonna get left out of the snow?  I've already got my sledding hill picked out!



I think the coast is a lock.  Now, as to snow vs. ice... way too early to say.  If you held me down and made me pick right now, I would say mainly snow for SAV.


----------



## clairol

DDD said:


> I think the coast is a lock.  Now, as to snow vs. ice... way too early to say.  If you held me down and made me pick right now, I would say mainly snow for SAV.



We'll be caught trying to sled on ice if we have to!  Thanks for all your info and updates!


----------



## DDD

clairol said:


> we'll be caught trying to sled on ice if we have to!  Thanks for all your info and updates!



winter storm watch in effect from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday afternoon...

The national weather service in charleston has issued a winter
storm watch...which is in effect from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday afternoon.

* *locations...all of southeast south carolina and southeast
  georgia...including the savannah and charleston metro areas.*

* hazard types...snow...freezing rain and sleet.

* accumulations...significant accumulations of snow and sleet in
  excess of 2 inches are possible. Ice accumulations in excess of
  1/4 inch are possible.

* impacts...significant snow...sleet and ice accumulation will
  create dangerous or impossible driving conditions for everyone
  including first responders. Damage to trees...power lines and
  even structures is possible. Widespread power outages could
  produce life threatening situations.

* timing...freezing rain and sleet could occur as early as tuesday
  afternoon...then transition to snow overnight tuesday before
  ending wednesday.

* wind chill readings...10 to 15 degrees.


----------



## bml

Whats your estimate for timing for the start of the precip for metro ATL?


----------



## bml

Your above post answered my question close enough.


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> Whats your estimate for timing for the start of the precip for metro ATL?



Dude... as of right now metro ATL will see nothing.  Nada...

Banks county?  Not even close.

Right now, this event is well south of us.


----------



## Resica

Accuweather has it.




http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-storm-south-snow/22569877


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Dude... as of right now metro ATL will see nothing.  Nada...
> 
> Banks county?  Not even close.
> 
> Right now, this event is well south of us.



Um Banks County.... I really should update that..... I moved awhile back.  \

Walnut Grove, about 10 miles north of I20 is the location these days.


----------



## DDD

Here you go... if you like broad pictures....


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> Um Banks County.... I really should update that..... I moved awhile back.  \
> 
> Walnut Grove, about 10 miles north of I20 is the location these days.



Still nada... the cutoff is going to be sharp.  North of I-20 is dry.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Here you go... if you like broad pictures....



That looks good for the Augusta area!


----------



## Matt.M

DDD said:


> Still nada... the cutoff is going to be sharp.  North of I-20 is dry.



Is that set in stone?

Don't we have some time for that to move further north?  It seems some models and mets are pointing to a possibility of it moving north.  Not 100 miles or so, but some movement.  But I really trust our local met over them  (i.e. you).


----------



## DDD

Matt.M said:


> Is that set in stone?
> 
> Don't we have some time for that to move further north?  It seems some models and mets are pointing to a possibility of it moving north.  Not 100 miles or so, but some movement.  But I really trust our local met over them  (i.e. you).




I just do not like it right now for folks north of Macon and Augusta.  I just don't.  

The precip cannot get far enough north.

I may change my tune with the 18Z and the 00Z run of the models, but right now, you could not get me to call for snow for Atlanta over to Athens north.


----------



## Resica

DDD said:


> Here you go... if you like broad pictures....



I'm sure they do!! Anything is better than nothing!!


----------



## bml

At least its gonna be a ton of fun for lots of south GA kids! Even though we dont get much winter weather here in N GA. those folks get even less. This sounds like it will be a truly memorable event for our southern brethren. One of those things they talk about in future Woody's threads 10 years down the road.


----------



## Nicodemus

Looks like we might finally be in the middle of this snow event. I`m ready for whatever it throws at us, and look forward to it.


----------



## Matt.M

bml said:


> At least its gonna be a ton of fun for lots of south GA kids! Even though we dont get much winter weather here in N GA. those folks get even less. This sounds like it will be a truly memorable event for our southern brethren. One of those things they talk about in future Woody's threads 10 years down the road.



TRUE!  Honestly I would rather them get it than North GA.  South GA going to have a ball.  I wonder how many new youtube videos of southern boys and snow are going to go up?  I hope some of them can have fun with their GoPro cameras.


----------



## bml

Matt.M said:


> TRUE!  Honestly I would rather them get it than North GA.  South GA going to have a ball.  I wonder how many new youtube videos of southern boys and snow are going to go up?  I hope some of them can have fun with their GoPro cameras.



Excellent point!! Those South Ga. kids are going to enjoy a couple of snow days!


----------



## bml

The national radar is not showing squat at this point. Will it be late Monday before we can watch this storm develop?


----------



## krisjack

What will the Leesburg and Albany area will be looking to get.Do u we need to go stock up.I am thinking we will just get some snow flurries and thats about it.Maybe some sleet.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Winter Storm Watch issued for Mcduffie County!!


----------



## DDD

krisjack said:


> What will the Leesburg and Albany area will be looking to get.Do u we need to go stock up.I am thinking we will just get some snow flurries and thats about it.Maybe some sleet.



I would go get my bread and milk now.

Winter Storm Watches are going to go up tonight for all of South GA.  They have already went up for most of South Carolina including columbia.

Albany in my mind looks to be in line for 4-6 inches.


----------



## blood on the ground

This is for Tuesday night right


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> I would go get my bread and milk now.
> 
> Winter Storm Watches are going to go up tonight for all of South GA.  They have already went up for most of South Carolina including columbia.
> 
> *Albany in my mind looks to be in line for 4-6 inches*.


----------



## TBI

What you thinking for Thomaston/Upson county Mr. DDD?


----------



## DDD

This should give you folks a very rough idea....


----------



## DDD

NWS just cranked this out...


----------



## DDD

And so it begins... Athens you are in it...

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014


GAZ036>039-046>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>107-270415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-
GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-
BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-
LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-
TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-STEWART-
WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...
PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...
WARNER ROBINS...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE
312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS....SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY ALONG A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE...AND MAY UNDERCUT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
MID MORNING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL IN THE
TO LOWER 30S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH VALUES RISING ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER 2 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


----------



## DDD

NAM is off and running... we are in it's wheel house...


----------



## bml

You have quite the audience.


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> This should give you folks a very rough idea....



I like your graphic representation 

It also seems as though your northern snow line perfectly bisects my house.


----------



## molon labe

DDD you have developed quite the following ,and it is much appreciated. Now, can you move that snow further north of Atlanta.


----------



## krisjack

We are under a Winter Storm Watch.Its been a long time since we have been under a Winter Storm watch.We have never had 3 to 6 inches of snow here in my lifetime so this is a once in a lifetime event in our area if this happens.It can still change and it could be all rain.My parents are not happy since it will hurt there thrift store business in Americus.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

figures!! i live in monroe!


----------



## PappyHoel

NOAA put up some snow flurries for Dawsonville, 20% chance.  I guess that's something.  Y'all should take DDDs advice and go get bread milk and eggs.


----------



## Cowdog07

DDD, are you referring to the Dacula area wheelhouse or those down in sowgawga?


----------



## DDD

Don't forget now... Mickmack or whatever his name is said his hairy gut told him the cold air was going to evaporate the snow.... sow I might need to put a really big screw over the whole state.


----------



## DDD

Cowdog07 said:


> DDD, are you referring to the Dacula area wheelhouse or those down in sowgawga?



I was referring to the NAM.  It is a good short range model.  Especially at 72 hours out from an event.


----------



## Cowdog07

Roger


----------



## DDD

I will be honest, I am really starting to see some cause for concern about freezing rain in South GA.  Like 1/2" of ice before the snow starts falling I don't think is out of the question.  

Powerlines and trees limbs will go down like mad.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD My dad lives in Milledgeville. He is going to freak out seeing 3 to 6 inches of snow. They hardly ever get snow down there.


----------



## turkeyhunter835

Plz come north, Plz come north!!!!


----------



## DDD

This run of the NAM is no help to Atlanta - Athens and northward.  

Still showing the love for Macon, however lighter on precip for Macon and Augusta.

Most interesting of note is looking at the RH values... this is an uber long system for the coast areas... 

Savannah?  The nam to me puts 1" of ice down before 4-6" of snow... its just insane.


----------



## Nicodemus

If that is the case, it will be a lineman`s nightmare. And with all the longleaf pines, and narrow ROWs, it`ll be like it was in 1988. Maybe worse.


----------



## jbird1

Sure is a big change from the ol' "how far south will the freezing line be?"  "Will the snow line get down to I-20?"  Now it's "how far north will it go?"..lol.  Pretty crazy


----------



## DDD

The South GA call is tough.  Precip type will depend on how soon the cold air invades and how deep the cold is.  I would not want to be a MET down there in that area trying to call this storm.

For me as a snow lover, it's going to kill me to know there is a snow storm raging 80 miles south of me and I got nothing.  KILL.  ME.


----------



## krisjack

We should be hearing of school closures soon.I would think they would close all the schools in our area.I probably be clearing our storage units Tuesday morning maybe the rain or snow hold off until after we are finished doing that.We have a auction Monday.Hopefully we wont win any cause I don't feel like loading the truck in the rain/snow Tuesday.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> The South GA call is tough.  Precip type will depend on how soon the cold air invades and how deep the cold is.  I would not want to be a MET down there in that area trying to call this storm.
> 
> For me as a snow lover, it's going to kill me to know there is a snow storm raging 80 miles south of me and I got nothing.  KILL.  ME.



x 2


----------



## DDD

krisjack said:


> We should be hearing of school closures soon.I would think they would close all the schools in our area.I probably be clearing our storage units Tuesday morning maybe the rain or snow hold off until after we are finished doing that.We have a auction Monday.Hopefully we wont win any cause I don't feel like loading the truck in the rain/snow Tuesday.



This event will be very late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. 

You will not have school closings until Tuesday.  They still have time to wait and this thing still has time to jog... but I think its pretty much locked in.

Would surprise me if it took any BIG changes at this point.

Devil is now in the details.


----------



## willbuck

The overall trend of this storm has been shiftng NW, has it stabilized and settled or does the I-85 area from ATL to GVL still have a shot?


----------



## PappyHoel

Any chance of a northward slide DDD?


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

ddd said:


> this run of the nam is no help to atlanta - athens and northward.
> 
> Still showing the love for macon, however lighter on precip for macon and augusta.
> 
> Most interesting of note is looking at the rh values... This is an uber long system for the coast areas...
> 
> Savannah?  The nam to me puts 1" of ice down before 4-6" of snow... Its just insane.



booo


----------



## DDD

willbuck said:


> The overall trend of this storm has been shiftng NW, has it stabilized and settled or does the I-85 area from ATL to GVL still have a shot?



It came NW a bit from original but not a lot.


No, right now there is nothing that tells me that ATL and Gainesville are in the game.  I don't see how Athens is in the game either.


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> Any chance of a northward slide DDD?



I just don't think so.  I hope it proves me wrong, I really do, but I don't see it.  The upcoming run of the GFS and the one tonight around 11PM will be a good picture.  Also the 0Z run of the EURO tonight.

I am reading online where this run of the NAM may have been messed up.  Apparently the algorithm may have had some issues and I agree... it doesn't look right so we might have to just throw that run of the NAM out.


----------



## willbuck

So your saying there is a chance.  

(dumb and dumber reference)


----------



## jmharris23

DDD said:


> I just don't think so.  I hope it proves me wrong, I really do, but I don't see it.  The upcoming run of the GFS and the one tonight around 11PM will be a good picture.  Also the 0Z run of the EURO tonight.
> 
> I am reading online where this run of the NAM may have been messed up.  Apparently the algorithm may have had some issues and I agree... it doesn't look right so we might have to just throw that run of the NAM out.



By "messed up" do you mean it's not going to snow/ice?


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> I just don't think so.  I hope it proves me wrong, I really do, but I don't see it.  The upcoming run of the GFS and the one tonight around 11PM will be a good picture.  Also the 0Z run of the EURO tonight.
> 
> I am reading online where this run of the NAM may have been messed up.  Apparently the algorithm may have had some issues and I agree... it doesn't look right so we might have to just throw that run of the NAM out.



It's fun to watch.  Thanks for keeping us updated.


----------



## SGADawg

You north Ga folks hesh up! It's rare that we get to see snow in deep south Ga so it's our turn!

Thanks for all you do DDD.


----------



## MD746

DDD,  Where does this put Coweta? My little one is scheduled for surgery early Wednesday morning just trying to plan ahead for possible cancellations .


----------



## bml

It's interesting to watch all this, even if we dont see so much as a flake where we are at. 

The TV guys are getting on the bandwagon now. We have been listening to DDD for quite a while ( 2weeks?) discuss the various possibilities for this week.


----------



## DDD

18Z GFS is off and running and it already looks totally different..... in a good way....


----------



## DDD

OH yeah... here it comes!!!!!!

WAY more precip firing in Texas trucking right up I-20.... come on baby...


----------



## bml

What exactly does the 18z refer to, for us that are weather model challenged


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> OH yeah... here it comes!!!!!!
> 
> WAY more precip firing in Texas trucking right up I-20.... come on baby...



Yay!!


----------



## GA DAWG

I guess I could go to the ol deer camp in Arabi and see something if I wanted to but guess I'll pass. Hope no limbs fall on my camper. Might better get some insurance on it tomorrow


----------



## DDD

Boom goes the dynamite.

Game on!


----------



## DDD

Whoa baby.... the 18Z GFS just dropped the snow bomb... have mercy.


----------



## krisjack

Still 4 to 6 inches of snow here right.That would be the most I ever have seen in this area.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Whoa baby.... the 18Z GFS just dropped the snow bomb... have mercy.



Please hold serve and validate...PRETTY PLEASE MOTHER NATURE!!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Whoa baby.... the 18Z GFS just dropped the snow bomb... have mercy.


----------



## DDD

Unreal...


----------



## GA DAWG

I could rent my camper out in crisp co to some of yall northerners so you can see some snow


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Unreal...



Now that looks good from Thomson to Augusta


----------



## DDD

Snow Accumulation from this run of the GFS.

One word of caution.... it is one run of the GFS, but could be our trend.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Snow Accumulation from this run of the GFS.
> 
> One word of caution.... it is one run of the GFS, but could be our trend.



That would be ALOT of snow if that stuck!  Columbia to Charleston would be crippled


----------



## PappyHoel

op2:


----------



## bml

Well, at least I know there are 50+ other folks who have spent the better part of the afternoon refreshing this page. At least its not just me.


----------



## marknga

I can't stop looking....

refresh every few minutes.


----------



## Cowdog07

That's right! bml, loyal follower


----------



## DDD

I will be honest... I am surprised.

What that map above is leaving out is the ice south of where you see snow...  This run of the GFS is a whopper.


----------



## Hardwoods

87 currently viewing. Wow.


----------



## bml

Channel 2 just upped the chances to 40% for metro ATL.


----------



## bml

There is moisture showing on the radar now for Arkansas and Louisiana. Is that part of the developing storm?


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

bml said:


> Well, at least I know there are 50+ other folks who have spent the better part of the afternoon refreshing this page. At least its not just me.


Yeah, we have a problem huh


----------



## Hardwoods

With this many viewers you would think a storm like this is a big deal or something.  'Preciate all the updates DDD!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Dang Triple D. You slowin the whole site down.




Juss kiddin. Great job Bub!


----------



## spotman




----------



## krisjack

Local Mets are predicting 1 to 3 inches of snow in our area.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> Don't forget now... Mickmack or whatever his name is said his hairy gut told him the cold air was going to evaporate the snow.... sow I might need to put a really big screw over the whole state.



I will update you in the morning if my right foot hurts along with my left knee we a will have 2 in of snow.


----------



## brandon

This is starting to look really, really good for those of us along the fall line ...


----------



## grunt0331

DDD,
I have a route driver scheduled to be in Savannah on Tuesday between 1100-1500.  He gonna have trouble getting back to Atlanta?


----------



## bml

I am also noticing that Channel 2 is raising the forecast lows by several degrees. We are now up to a whopping 19 degrees for a low on Wednesday.


----------



## DDD

grunt0331 said:


> DDD,
> I have a route driver scheduled to be in Savannah on Tuesday between 1100-1500.  He gonna have trouble getting back to Atlanta?



Will he start back on Tuesday?  He will need to be back in ATL by 2200 in my opinion.

That time could change as the event gets closer.


----------



## Bitteroot

I'm afraid to look anymore.....


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I am concerned for freezing rain. The drought two summer's ago left allot of dead standing timber. Including partially dead trees. Power lines will be down.


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> I am also noticing that Channel 2 is raising the forecast lows by several degrees. We are now up to a whopping 19 degrees for a low on Wednesday.



Which would be correct.  The moisture and air that comes with it is "warmer".  Believe me... temps are not going to be a problem in my mind for the northern 2/3 of GA.


----------



## GA DAWG

Will this kill the gnats?


----------



## klfutrelle

Come to Athens!!! Looking forward to OT!!!!!


----------



## jebooker

Have followed this thread now for a couple of years and have been silent till now!!!triple ddd,from my viewpoint your a stellar guy who is quite serious with weather related issues and you provide a service better then most of the so called pros...curious,were you a navy guy??sure hope the likes of "the furball" don't deter you from your service of those that appreciate your approach to weather related issues


----------



## Paint Brush

DDD looks like you're earlier predictions of a more westerly tract are coming to fruition. Do you think it will shift even more before it gets here? If so more of north Georgia will get in on the action.


----------



## Nicodemus

GA DAWG said:


> Will this kill the gnats?





Nope. Never has, never will. Skeeters, gnats, and everything else will go dormant and sleep through this.


----------



## DDD

Paint Brush said:


> DDD looks like you're earlier predictions of a more westerly tract are coming to fruition. Do you think it will shift even more before it gets here? If so more of north Georgia will get in on the action.



I can't really say I predicted it would.  I may have said that a day or two ago, but today I did not think it was going to happen.

It still may not happen.  It is just one run of the GFS.

Also the Ensemble members (out lying runs) of the GFS were even more westerly.  So it supports the operational run.

Hard to know what it will do at this point.  I am interested in the run of the NAM coming up and the GFS.  I will stay up for those 2 runs but not the EURO.

Those runs will be the signal that we will need to sort of start to plan on.  

We are almost 48 hours from the event.


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> OH yeah... here it comes!!!!!!
> 
> WAY more precip firing in Texas trucking right up I-20.... come on baby...





DDD said:


> Boom goes the dynamite.
> 
> Game on!



 Come on birthday snow!


----------



## DDD

85 viewing... LOL... crazy.


----------



## Sugar Plum

Dang, I'm supposed to work 4p-12a on Tuesday. Looks like I should pack an overnight bag, just in case. 

DDD- I work in Macon, right off of I75 @ highway 80. That's about where the snow/ice is predicted to hit, isn't it??

95 viewing!!


----------



## DDD

For you extreme S. GA folks... this from Mobile, AL NWS:

From the NWS Mobile  AFD:

SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL
BE FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS A SERIES OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREE ACROSS
THE AREA...*SO CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT A WINTER STORM WARNING
WILL BE UPCOMING.* 

*POTENTIALLY WE COULD SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF ICE
COATING THE ROADS...BRIDGES...POWER LINES AND TREES. *

*THIS MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN ADDITION
TO THE ICE..*.COVERING THE ICE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE
ALABAMA...WHERE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LIFE THREATENING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED NOT TO TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS.


----------



## DDD

Sugar Plum said:


> Dang, I'm supposed to work 4p-12a on Tuesday. Looks like I should pack an overnight bag, just in case.
> 
> DDD- I work in Macon, right off of I75 @ highway 80. That's about where the snow/ice is predicted to hit, isn't it??
> 
> 95 viewing!!



Macon over to Augusta is the belly of the beast in the way of snow fall.  

You "might" be ok by leaving at midnight but I won't swear that just yet.


----------



## DDD

jebooker said:


> Have followed this thread now for a couple of years and have been silent till now!!!triple ddd,from my viewpoint your a stellar guy who is quite serious with weather related issues and you provide a service better then most of the so called pros...curious,were you a navy guy??sure hope the likes of "the furball" don't deter you from your service of those that appreciate your approach to weather related issues




Nope not a Navy guy.  

Just a redneck with a serious weather addiction.  

I appreciate the kind words.  Woody's has been a lot of fun following snow threats.  This one will probably go down in the history files as well as another fun chase / follow.


----------



## Resica

Sugar Plum said:


> Dang, I'm supposed to work 4p-12a on Tuesday. Looks like I should pack an overnight bag, just in case.
> 
> DDD- I work in Macon, right off of I75 @ highway 80. That's about where the snow/ice is predicted to hit, isn't it??
> 
> 95 viewing!!



I'll mail you some chains and a snowblower!


----------



## krisjack

There calling for 40 degrees in Albany for tuesday and 34 Wednesday.I think it will be 38 in Leesburg and 31 on Wednesday for the highs but we will see.We will probably get about one and half inches of snow.I think the 4 to 6 inches is too high.I will be shocked if we got that much.


----------



## jbird1

Sounds like the wintry precip sandwich is coming to South Ga.  I remember an 80's storm that threw down a thick sheet of sleet, several inches of snow on top of that, and then a coating of freezing rain on top.  I remember we had snow in our yard almost two weeks after the storm had passed.


----------



## krisjack

When is the next model run going to be.


----------



## DRB1313

110 viewing and Jim Cantore on his way.


----------



## DDD

110 people viewing...  

From the ATL NWS.... conservative as usual, but I dont blame them.  Can't change a forecast on one model run.


----------



## todd03blown

DRB1313 said:


> 110 viewing and Jim Cantore on his way.


I think the Christmas storm of 2010 or Jan 2011 snowstorm we had over 300 people lurking at the peak of those. If I recall correctly.


----------



## Paymaster

We got one of these storms in the early 70's when I was stationed at Ft Gordon for AIT. Barracks were three stories high with the company offices out in front of them. The wind blown snow completely covered the office buildings and all the cars parked in front. Snow was up to mid window on the first floor of the barracks. Augusta was crippled for three days.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> 110 people viewing...
> 
> From the ATL NWS.... conservative as usual, but I dont blame them.  Can't change a forecast on one model run.



Continuing to look good for the CSRA. Facebook has started to blow up right after lunch today LOL.


----------



## PappyHoel

Paymaster said:


> We got one of these storms in the early 70's when I was stationed at Ft Gordon for AIT. Barracks were three stories high with the company offices out in front of them. The wind blown snow completely covered the office buildings and all the cars parked in front. Snow was up to mid window on the first floor of the barracks. Augusta was crippled for three days.



Were you a 31U?


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> I think the Christmas storm of 2010 or Jan 2011 snowstorm we had over 300 people lurking at the peak of those. If I recall correctly.



Really?  I don't remember that, but I will take your word for it.


----------



## PappyHoel

Paymaster said:


> We got one of these storms in the early 70's when I was stationed at Ft Gordon for AIT. Barracks were three stories high with the company offices out in front of them. The wind blown snow completely covered the office buildings and all the cars parked in front. Snow was up to mid window on the first floor of the barracks. Augusta was crippled for three days.



Were you a 31U?  I went to OBC there.  

The local forecast is starting to mention a possibility of snow now.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Really?  I don't remember that, but I will take your word for it.


LOL! It was pretty close, if not 300. The board was soooooo slow. That is when I first started on this forum. What a crazy ride, in a good way of course.

Would love to see this event materialize in the same fashion for us. Would be epic


----------



## krisjack

How soon will they release Winter Storm warnings u think.Maybe Monday night.


----------



## Paymaster

PappyHoel said:


> Were you a 31U?  I went to OBC there.
> 
> The local forecast is starting to mention a possibility of snow now.



31L
Started out in radio relay operator school and moved to radio repair when I graduated op school.


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> I will be honest, I am really starting to see some cause for concern about freezing rain in South GA.  Like 1/2" of ice before the snow starts falling I don't think is out of the question.
> 
> Powerlines and trees limbs will go down like mad.


THAT is what worries me.......... I have horses that have gnawed trees, worried about them falling on fences & them getting out........


Nicodemus said:


> If that is the case, it will be a lineman`s nightmare. And with all the longleaf pines, and narrow ROWs, it`ll be like it was in 1988. Maybe worse.


I remember that, I was pregnant with LilD, scary for sure!


SGADawg said:


> You north Ga folks hesh up! It's rare that we get to see snow in deep south Ga so it's our turn!
> 
> Thanks for all you do DDD.


Ditto!!!


GA DAWG said:


> I guess I could go to the ol deer camp in Arabi and see something if I wanted to but guess I'll pass. Hope no limbs fall on my camper. Might better get some insurance on it tomorrow


Great idea! (I'm not too far from there!)


Nicodemus said:


> Nope. Never has, never will. Skeeters, gnats, and everything else will go dormant and sleep through this.


 dagnabbit!


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> LOL! It was pretty close, if not 300. The board was soooooo slow. That is when I first started on this forum. What a crazy ride, in a good way of course.
> 
> Would love to see this event materialize in the same fashion for us. Would be epic



Funny you say that...

There are some little things that make me think this thing could get even BIGGER.  If that happens... this is going to turn into a sure enough ride.


----------



## DDD

krisjack said:


> How soon will they release Winter Storm warnings u think.Maybe Monday night.



Negative.  Warnings have certain criteria that have to be met.

It will be tomorrow before you see any warnings.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Funny you say that...
> 
> There are some little things that make me think this thing could get even BIGGER.  If that happens... this is going to turn into a sure enough ride.



I sure hope it does!!  I love the snow! Spent 7 years in upstate NY while in high school, which started love fest.


----------



## Resica

todd03blown said:


> I sure hope it does!!  I love the snow! Spent 7 years in upstate NY while in high school, which started love fest.



You were in high school for 7 years?


----------



## DDD

NAM will roll here shortly....


----------



## todd03blown

Resica said:


> You were in high school for 7 years?



LOL! Good catch


----------



## bml

NAM @ 8:30 and GFS @ 10:30?


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> NAM @ 8:30 and GFS @ 10:30?



Roughly.  Yes.  It initializes and then I will start being able to see maps shortly there after.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

Most recent SREF model looked really good! Just like GFS


----------



## DDD

I just took a look at the SREF... and it is just about time to push this...

The SREF is a short range model that the NWS puts a lot of stock in...

My gosh.


----------



## todd03blown

Rockdale Buck said:


> Most recent SREF model looked really good! Just like GFS



Yep! Those forums just exploded again!! This could be good!


----------



## Arrow3

Is this storm gonna go up the east coast and affect the Super Bowl?


----------



## DDD

This is the precip model from the SREF.... wow.


----------



## PappyHoel

DOH!   That's gonna be a mess and it looks like everyone might get something.


----------



## krisjack

This looks pretty good.


----------



## Ricky

DDD said:


> This is the precip model from the SREF.
> 1 inch of precip ='s 12 inches of snow ,roughly?


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Just wow!!


----------



## DDD

Guys, this is a map that the SREF puts out to tell you what the chances are for you to have 12" of snow.

Yes.  Metro ATL is at 15% chance according to this model.

Sorry, had to edit.  I looked at the wrong blue color.


----------



## Resica

todd03blown said:


> LOL! Good catch



Sorry. Couldn't resist.


----------



## GA DAWG

Wasn't supposed to come up here. Stay south.  I may not be able to get to work wed morning


----------



## DDD

Ricky said:


> DDD said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is the precip model from the SREF.
> 1 inch of precip ='s 12 inches of snow ,roughly?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would depend on snow ratios.  Normal snow ratio is 1 inch= 10 inches.
Click to expand...


----------



## Crickett

My hubby just told me to quit given him weather updates cause he's all weathered out!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

I might need some milk and bread now


----------



## DDD

Arrow3 said:


> Is this storm gonna go up the east coast and affect the Super Bowl?



Right now it goes out to sea and not up the coast.

Which is exactly what I hope happens because the snow lovers up there need to get hosed.  We need a southern snow lovers only snow.

Forget them.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Guys, this is a map that the SREF puts out to tell you what the chances are for you to have 12" of snow.
> 
> Yes.  Metro ATL is at 15% chance according to this model.
> 
> Sorry, had to edit.  I looked at the wrong blue color.


If this trend continues things could move a little further N/NW in yen next day and keep pushing this chances higher for the more northern folk? Or do you expect that trend to slow or halt totally?


----------



## PappyHoel

Crickett said:


> My hubby just told me to quit given him weather updates cause he's all weathered out!



Send him to the store for milk and bread.  I know you already have eggs.

Funny thing about this system....weather underground isn't even acknowledging that any precipitation is going to happen.


----------



## Crickett

PappyHoel said:


> Send him to the store for milk and bread.  I know you already have eggs.
> 
> Funny thing about this system....weather underground isn't even acknowledging that any precipitation is going to happen.



Got all that yesterday! 

127 viewing.....wow!!!

Correction: 132 viewing


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> Alright so there is a lot to talk about and watch for the next 3+ weeks.
> 
> The atmosphere, the blocking that is needed to send cold air shots south, the different oscillations and teh things that different models and model runs are starting to show is making my eyes pop.
> 
> Focus really needs to be around next Friday /Saturday for a MAJOR SE winter event.  Not only that but the pattern is RIPE for a freezing rain event possibly that Friday night and then what I would classify as a major snow for Saturday.
> 
> Yes this would include Taco's back yard, Macon, Augusta, all points north.  3 different models on different run have all showed a HUGE low pressure system coming out of the Gulf with temps well below freezing over the entire state and South East.  It is red light district snow show.
> 
> The details are not really important right now.  What is important is that the cold air is in place, which obviously you have to have but the cold is packed in.  It's not a hit and go type deal.  The look reminds me of 2010 when the snow hung around for 5+ days.
> 
> Many weather gurus that I respect in the SE are blogging or tweeting about the pattern starting around the 20th of this month and then carrying on for 2+ weeks.
> 
> Most notably a name that you all might recgonize, Joe *******i who has been spot on this winter tweeted this today:
> 
> "I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US."
> 
> ""Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught"
> 
> "Some of the models have Atlanta near or below 0 by month end"
> 
> 
> My thoughts?  Right now I always, always say... "the trend is your friend."  If the pattern or consensus among models, be it temps or moisture is trending wetter or colder, or hotter and drier... the trend is your friend.
> 
> Everything looks to be trending colder and wetter.  If I were someone who didn't have fire wood, I would start looking for some this week or weekend and early next week.  I think we may be in for a long cold shot, as JB said, nation wide.
> 
> Snowmegedon?  No way anyone could call that this far out.  Is the pattern right for one?  You bet.



Not bad from 10+ days out.  Thanks again man!


----------



## DDD

Crickett said:


> My hubby just told me to quit given him weather updates cause he's all weathered out!



Time for a new hubby.


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> Time for a new hubby.



Lol....No No:


----------



## deerslayer357

So are we looking at 15% chance of snow in Athens?

Or 15% chance of 12" of snow?


----------



## DDD

bml said:


> Not bad from 10+ days out.  Thanks again man!



The dates were a little off but the pattern was ripe.  I had a good idea it was going to happen.


----------



## DDD

deerslayer357 said:


> So are we looking at 15% chance of snow in Athens?
> 
> Or 15% chance of 12" of snow?



15% for 12"


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

deerslayer357 said:


> So are we looking at 15% chance of snow in Athens?
> 
> Or 15% chance of 12" of snow?



A foot of snow according to that map


----------



## DDD

deerhuntingdawg said:


> A foot of snow according to that map



That is a probability map.  15% chance we see 12" of snow.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> That is a probability map.  15% chance we see 12" of snow.



Thats what I meant when he was asking what the 15% meant. I should have clarified better. It looks like Mcduffie County in on the fringe of the 30% probabilty


----------



## PappyHoel

Atlanta stations are playing it safe.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/warmup-sunday-cold-snap-returns-week/nc3Q6/


----------



## Struttin'-n-Drummin'

Hey 3 D, when is this event suppose to transpire?   I've seen the quantities and so forth, but no ETA's.


----------



## Arrow3

weather.com on my phone isn't saying anything about it yet.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

PappyHoel said:


> Atlanta stations are playing it safe.
> 
> http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/warmup-sunday-cold-snap-returns-week/nc3Q6/



All the Augusta stations are too. Most saying 1-3 inches for our area. We shall see!


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Arrow3 said:


> weather.com on my phone isn't saying anything about it yet.



Brandon,
What county do you live in?It sent me an aleart on my phone ealier today about the Winter Weather Watch issued


----------



## Paint Brush

PappyHoel said:


> Atlanta stations are playing it safe.
> 
> http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/warmup-sunday-cold-snap-returns-week/nc3Q6/



 Yea they always do I hope this one jumps and bites them all.


----------



## DRB1313

Arrow3 said:


> weather.com on my phone isn't saying anything about it yet.



Mine neither B.,  but they are always behind.  I am sticking here for the best and most fun forecast.


----------



## nickel back

hope it all holds and comes together, would like to see 4 to 6 or more inches of snow in Upson county.


----------



## DDD

Struttin'-n-Drummin' said:


> Hey 3 D, when is this event suppose to transpire?   I've seen the quantities and so forth, but no ETA's.



ETA for south GA will be late evening Tuesday, N. GA will be Tuesday night into the wee hours of Wed. morning.



Arrow3 said:


> weather.com on my phone isn't saying anything about it yet.



weather.com is a joke.  They only update your local every 6 hours.  If you are lucky.




deerhuntingdawg said:


> All the Augusta stations are too. Most saying 1-3 inches for our area. We shall see!




I don't blame any tv MET for being conservative.  It's 48 hours away, no way you go out there and scream 8-10" and let the weather make a fool of you.


----------



## bml

I remember a few years ago when I started following these threads, and I couldn't figure out why DDD & Miguel would be freaking out 5 or so days ahead of a major winter storm, but the TV folks wouldn't even acknowledge cloudy skies. Apparently, the news organizations have some serious fears of being wrong, or being accused of "crying wolf" so to speak.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Got a snow total map off the latest run Triple D?


----------



## adavis

*This^^^^*



RinggoldGa said:


> Got a snow total map off the latest run Triple D?


I am a visual learner


----------



## DDD

The NAM is good.  Relative humidity is good over us.  But no doubt the heavy precip is still in Macon over to Augusta.

It's not GFS good... but I still like it.


----------



## panfried0419

Seems like us folks in the hills are missing out on this one again.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD, 
I was looking at the TwisterData.com snow map(GFS) for 72 hours out and it looked impressive. Tying into the GFS runs you were posting. Maybe someone can post it. I cant get it to link


----------



## DDD

What is more interesting to me now that I look back over the models is this storm is getting LONGER.  12-18 hours of precip falling for a lot of areas....  sort of concerning... especially of the precip type is freezing rain.


----------



## DDD

deerhuntingdawg said:


> DDD,
> I was looking at the TwisterData.com snow map(GFS) for 72 hours out and it looked impressive. Tying into the GFS runs you were posting. Maybe someone can post it. I cant get it to link



Here you go.


----------



## Crickett

So from Gainesville toward Athens we probably won't see anything Tuesday evening, right? I've gotta be at church in Gainesville Tuesday @ 7pm & will probably be there til 9ish.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> What is more interesting to me now that I look back over the models is this storm is getting LONGER.  12-18 hours of precip falling for a lot of areas....  sort of concerning... especially of the precip type is freezing rain.



Does that mean the forecasted storm is getting stronger? Freezing rain is NOT a fun thing. I hate that stuff.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

DDD said:


> Here you go.



That's the one!! Thanks man!


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> What is more interesting to me now that I look back over the models is this storm is getting LONGER.  12-18 hours of precip falling for a lot of areas....  sort of concerning... especially of the precip type is freezing rain.



Temps won't be an issue for North of ATL, correct? I keep seeing temps rising by 2c but that appears to be well south?


----------



## jcountry

So, will Upson be right on the line?  

How about Fayetteville?

Which models are more trustworthy with this kind of situation?


----------



## nickel back

jcountry said:


> So, will Upson be right on the line?
> 
> How about Fayetteville?
> 
> Which models are more trustworthy with this kind of situation?



should be a good hit for Upson.....


----------



## jcountry

I'm getting excited !

I wanna build a snowman!


----------



## TBI

nickel back said:


> should be a good hit for Upson.....



Let's hope not! I don't want one furry flake, we've got sawmillin' to do!


----------



## panfried0419

Crickett said:


> So from Gainesville toward Athens we probably won't see anything Tuesday evening, right? I've gotta be at church in Gainesville Tuesday @ 7pm & will probably be there til 9ish.



I don't think us hillfolk are going to see the sugar fallin from the sky


----------



## savreds

Good lord, I was gone for a few hours and ya'll done blown the thread up. I had to read thru 4 pages to get caught up!
 I've already warned all of my friends that it might get nasty.


----------



## nickel back

TBI said:


> Let's hope not! I don't want one furry flake, we've got sawmillin' to do!



lol.....just don't see sawmilling happing this Wednesday or Thursday....I have seen a lot of raccoons in Fla.


----------



## Bitteroot

Somebody PM me when it gets to Sugar Valley.....cold without snow just stinks....


----------



## Crickett

panfried0419 said:


> I don't think us hillfolk are going to see the sugar fallin from the sky



I'm hoping you're wrong!


----------



## DDD

The SREF says you kids are in business up in the hills.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> The SREF says you kids are in business up in the hills.


----------



## DDD

GFS is running.... big run right here...


----------



## fireman401

DDD said:


> The SREF says you kids are in business up in the hills.



So did the storm make a big shift away from middle Georgia ( Dooly / Crisp Area) or is it spreading out??


----------



## bml

DDD said:


> The SREF says you kids are in business up in the hills.



Isn't the SREF a version of the NAM?


----------



## DDD

I don't like it....  but lets see where it goes....


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> I don't like it....  but lets see where it goes....


----------



## DDD

Moisture is still strong on 0Z  wow...


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Moisture is still strong on 0Z  wow...


Still looking good for ATL metro and a little north (canton)?


----------



## krisjack

This is the freezing line for Wednesday morning according to walb.


----------



## jcountry

So what's the scoop- with these runs?


----------



## 91xjgawes

jcountry said:


> so what's the scoop- with these runs?



x2!?


----------



## DDD

Alright... this run of the GFS is only slightly different than the 18Z.

Only reason it does not explode like the 18Z is that it leaves some energy behind in California.  (dang hippies)

So it still has plenty of energy, just not as much as it would have if it picked it up and brought it with it.  

This run there is a serious cut off just south of Atlanta.  From the bottom of 285 the snow cover is good.  North of that point, the snow drops off sharply.

The snow maps have not come out yet, but thats what it looks like looking at the raw data.


----------



## PappyHoel

todd03blown said:


> Still looking good for ATL metro and a little north (canton)?



Nope


----------



## jcountry

DDD said:


> Alright... this run of the GFS is only slightly different than the 18Z.
> 
> Only reason it does not explode like the 18Z is that it leaves some energy behind in California.  (dang hippies)
> 
> So it still has plenty of energy, just not as much as it would have if it picked it up and brought it with it.
> 
> This run there is a serious cut off just south of Atlanta.  From the bottom of 285 the snow cover is good.  North of that point, the snow drops off sharply.
> 
> The snow maps have not come out yet, but thats what it looks like looking at the raw data.



Still sounds like fun times in Upson!


----------



## DDD

Not crazy about this pic, but it will do for now.

The 0Z GFS


----------



## Sugar Plum

Does that mean we're still in the "snow zone" in Forsyth/Macon? I'm trying to determine how many changes of clothes I'll need to put in my overnight bag. I just don't see driving 30+ miles one way through any of this stuff. Looks like I'll just have to sleep at work for a few nights! Unless it gets so bad, early enough, and I get to call out!


----------



## DDD

Now that I look at it I have to back up... its more like I-85 southward is in good shape.  It might bi-sect ATL


----------



## TBI

nickel back said:


> lol.....just don't see sawmilling happing this Wednesday or Thursday....I have seen a lot of raccoons in Fla.



You gonna be home in time to see the snow?


----------



## SGADawg

Dang it!!  Ya'll ain't gonna take away my south Ga snow are ya?


----------



## DDD

Uhhh... I'll take it.


----------



## panfried0419

I have been in Gatlinburg all weekend. And have seen nothing but slush and ice! I come home to under 4000' and still no white for us in NE hills


----------



## DDD

My last thought for the night:

My prediction if you will, that energy out in the Baja of California, I think the models are still not handling it right.  I think that energy will get picked up by the northern energy and give us all a snow dream on Tuesday.  I really think that.


ALSO!!!!  This will start around 6PM Tuesday.... I was a little off on my times, so it will need to be watched closely... could be happening during rush hour if it speeds up even a little bit.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Uhhh... I'll take it.



Looks like we are in the bulls-eye for this one. We are halfway between Macon, and Augusta


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> My last thought for the night:
> 
> My prediction if you will, that energy out in the Baja of California, I think the models are still not handling it right.  I think that energy will get picked up by the northern energy and give us all a snow dream on Tuesday.  I really think that.
> 
> 
> ALSO!!!!  This will start around 6PM Tuesday.... I was a little off on my times, so it will need to be watched closely... could be happening during rush hour if it speeds up even a little bit.


I sure hope that is the case. More interesting model runs tomorrow.

Thanks again!!


----------



## Sugar Plum

DDD said:


> My last thought for the night:
> 
> My prediction if you will, that energy out in the Baja of California, I think the models are still not handling it right.  I think that energy will get picked up by the northern energy and give us all a snow dream on Tuesday.  I really think that.
> 
> 
> ALSO!!!!  This will start around 6PM Tuesday.... I was a little off on my times, so it will need to be watched closely... could be happening during rush hour if it speeds up even a little bit.





I'll be at work when it starts. I may or may not attempt to drive home at midnight. 

Thanks DDD!!!


----------



## nickel back

flip flop flip flop....flip flop flip  flop.......what will the models say today......


would be awesome to have that energy out in the Baja of California to hook up.


----------



## DDD

Overnight the GFS and the NAM went east taking a good portion of us out of the game again. Not freaking out just yet, it was only one run of models. 

South GA is still on tap for a good snow, it just doesn't look as promising for those of us north of Macon. We will see if that holds.


----------



## jcountry

The weather channel shifted their projection north-so that ATL gets some.  

Who knows?


----------



## PappyHoel

I checked with my magic 8 ball this morning and it said "unlikely".  I predict a bust.


----------



## Matt.M

PappyHoel said:


> I checked with my magic 8 ball this morning and it said "unlikely".  I predict a bust.



I'm shocked to hear this from Captain Negative.

Maybe shocked that it took this long to announce it.


----------



## nickel back

jcountry said:


> Who knows?



^^^this^^^^

if  the energy out in the Baja of California does not hook up with energy coming from up north there will be less snow.......


----------



## nickel back

from Matthew East:

 I think our two incoming pieces of energy will NOT phase, as the 18z GFS showed. NW adjustment has ceased on modeling too.:


----------



## keithsto

**refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh**

I know I'm not the only one.


----------



## Toddcosper

I am mostly a lurker on here -  

But isn't this very much like the January 2011 Snow Forecast. Almost all meteorologists were saying little or no snow until about 4hours before the event. 

I was employed as a minister at the time and we had morning church with the plan of evening church because it wasn't supposed to be bad. I got a call to go lock up the church at 3pm and before I got home (living only one mile away on the Banks/Jackson County Line) the roads were so snow covered no one could see anything. 

It seems like to me that we may not know what this is going to do until just before it does it. 

Opinions?


----------



## Robbie101

keithsto said:


> **refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh****refresh**
> 
> I know I'm not the only one.



No you ain't!!!


----------



## nickel back

Toddcosper said:


> I am mostly a lurker on here -
> 
> But isn't this very much like the January 2011 Snow Forecast. Almost all meteorologists were saying little or no snow until about 4hours before the event.
> 
> I was employed as a minister at the time and we had morning church with the plan of evening church because it wasn't supposed to be bad. I got a call to go lock up the church at 3pm and before I got home (living only one mile away on the Banks/Jackson County Line) the roads were so snow covered no one could see anything.
> 
> It seems like to me that we may not know what this is going to do until just before it does it.
> 
> Opinions?



yes, the flip flop of the models will keep every one guessing and  the snow lovers wishing for the biggest snow model hit......


----------



## klfutrelle

Come on HAARP controllers..... shift it a little north!


----------



## JonathanG2013

Jeff what county are you in?


----------



## PappyHoel

klfutrelle said:


> Come on HAARP controllers..... shift it a little north!



They closed the HAARP station.  This is all due to global warming.


----------



## krisjack

I want it to shift south so we could see 4 to 6 inches for a change.


----------



## Jeff C.

JonathanG2013 said:


> Jeff what county are you in?



Clayton, Fayette, Henry, Spalding......or, let's just say I can dang near throw a rock and hit any of them.


----------



## Matt.M

I find it interesting that talkweather's forum is down.  Didn't we shut down GON's forum for few minutes during the 2011 storm?


----------



## Robbie101

Matt.M said:


> I find it interesting that talkweather's forum is down.  Didn't we shut down GON's forum for few minutes during the 2011 storm?




Think so. I also remember there being 300+ viewing that night too. I remember it being a lot of guest.


----------



## malak05

Matt.M said:


> I find it interesting that talkweather's forum is down.  Didn't we shut down GON's forum for few minutes during the 2011 storm?



Yeah the forum was loaded down last night it's a crappy time for it to crash


----------



## GA DAWG

Musta fell through. No updates from DDD this morning.. Great!


----------



## jesnic

Jeff C. said:


> You blew the page up!!



Jeff C., you didn't believe me last week when I told you this was brewing.


----------



## malak05

GA DAWG said:


> Musta fell through. No updates from DDD this morning.. Great!



I'm not sure it's fell through as much as the models are all over the place with changes ever run and different tracks...Somebody is getting something but who knows where and how much per the models


----------



## bml

GA DAWG said:


> Musta fell through. No updates from DDD this morning.. Great!



He is Prolly at work.


----------



## nickel back

GA DAWG said:


> Musta fell through. No updates from DDD this morning.. Great!



I think he knows the Weather Models are all over the place and is trying to wait out a little bit to see if they will come back together......just my .02 though


----------



## Sargent

GA DAWG said:


> Musta fell through. No updates from DDD this morning.. Great!





bml said:


> He is Prolly at work.





nickel back said:


> I think he knows the Weather Models are all over the place and is trying to wait out a little bit to see if they will come back together......just my .02 though



He was kidnapped by Glen Burns this morning. 

He won't be released until Thursday evening at the earliest.


----------



## jcountry

nickel back said:


> from Matthew East:
> 
> I think our two incoming pieces of energy will NOT phase, as the 18z GFS showed. NW adjustment has ceased on modeling too.:



I just saw his video.

The way I interpret it, even if it doesn't "phase," it still looks to be a big deal.  maybe more ice than snow, but I still think Matt says it will be a major event.


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> I think he knows the Weather Models are all over the place and is trying to wait out a little bit to see if they will come back together......just my .02 though



This^^^^


----------



## orrb

After the 2pm models come in DDD will be back to let us know..  He is good about that.  

Thanks again DDD..


----------



## marknga

From WMAZ Channel 13 facebook post:

From WMAZ Meteorologist David Ernst: here's my latest thinking on the winter weather potential Tuesday into Wednesday (this is subject to change...check back for more up-to-date forecasts). 
Tuesday PM - light sleet/snow mix north of Macon...rain/sleet mix for Macon/WR/Milledgeville...cold rain to the southeast. 
Conversion to snow (from north to south) for Tuesday evening with minor freezing rain (less than .1") for central viewing area. 
Freezing rain likely to persist from Cordele to Eastman to Wrightsville through the night (ice accumulation of .25"+). Snow totals for Macon/WR/Milledgeville of 1-3" appear likely.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

nickel back said:


> I think he knows the Weather Models are all over the place and is trying to wait out a little bit to see if they will come back together......just my .02 though



When does to the next GFS and NAM come out? The snowfall totals were down a good bit from last night.


----------



## marknga

NWS facebook post


----------



## keithsto

marknga said:


> NWS facebook post



That post is from 18 hours ago...


----------



## malak05

keithsto said:


> That post is from 18 hours ago...



It's from FFC that will probably be the only thing they put up until Thursday when all of Georgia is covered with snow haha


----------



## marknga

from Fox 5 Atlanta about an hour ago


----------



## JonathanG2013

> I was referring to JonathanG's huge screenshot/attachment blowing the page up so wide that I have to scroll right and left to read it now. Wish he, or someone would fix it.



Jeff is that better I deleted the post.


----------



## panfried0419

So normal cold sunny and windy for chicken town I guess


----------



## Nitram4891

JonathanG2013 said:


> Jeff is that better I deleted the post.



Now Jeff needs to remove the one he quoted you in...


----------



## Crickett

Jeff C. said:


> I didn't ?  I generally pay attention and have faith in our weather guys here.
> 
> I was referring to JonathanG's huge screenshot/attachment blowing the page up so wide that I have to scroll right and left to read it now. Wish he, or someone would fix it.



Now you need to edit your post



JonathanG2013 said:


> Jeff is that better I deleted the post.



Just resize the pic & repost it.


----------



## Jeff C.

JonathanG2013 said:


> Jeff is that better I deleted the post.



Hmmmmm....I deleted mine too Jonathan, but it's still blown up on my end. Sorry, bud.....may not have been your post that blew it up.


----------



## DDD

Real quick post because I am at work. 

Models are sucking at handling this system. Period. 

Honestly it's anyone's guess how this will shake out. The devil is in the details. 

One thing is for sure. There is going to be a steep cutoff of amounts.  Cant express this enough. It could be 3" at 85 and 285 and nothing at 400 and 285. 

It's going to be that sharp of a drop off. 5 -15 miles could make a huge difference in how much people get.


----------



## malak05

The latest NAM just came up and does trend the precipitation further NW amounts still are low but positive trends compared to previous run which had a cutoff right around Atlanta latest has the cutoff up to Chattanooga  sorry can't get image to attach for some reason... but positive trend hopefully gets it going


----------



## JonathanG2013

Here is the smaller pic of the Georgia snow map from NOAA.


----------



## Jeff C.

Jeff C. said:


> Hmmmmm....I deleted mine too Jonathan, but it's still blown up on my end. Sorry, bud.....may not have been your post that blew it up.



There we go! I deleted the wrong post


----------



## Jeff C.

DDD said:


> Real quick post because I am at work.
> 
> Models are sucking at handling this system. Period.
> 
> Honestly it's anyone's guess how this will shake out. The devil is in the details.
> 
> One thing is for sure. There is going to be a steep cutoff of amounts.  Cant express this enough. It could be 3" at 85 and 285 and nothing at 400 and 285.
> 
> It's going to be that sharp of a drop off. 5 -15 miles could make a huge difference in how much people get.





JonathanG2013 said:


> Here is the smaller pic of the Georgia snow map from NOAA.



With DDD's post above and that map, I think I'm going to see 3-5 inches. Probably on the 3" side more than likely.


----------



## Crickett

Jeff C. said:


> There we go! I deleted the wrong post


----------



## malak05

Latest NAM image for hour 60 totals still need it to trend NW and/or bring in more moisture just see how things go


----------



## panfried0419

You folks below I-20 better stay the off roads then. Y'all can't even drive in drizzle!


----------



## DDD

FYI, RGEM... short range model just showed us some good love.  If the NW trend will continue, everyone will be in business.  

Just so you guys understand... these model runs and the details of them are maddening.  Things that I am looking for over Nebraska... and California mean so much down stream.


----------



## PappyHoel

DDD said:


> FYI, RGEM... short range model just showed us some good love.  If the NW trend will continue, everyone will be in business.
> 
> Just so you guys understand... these model runs and the details of them are maddening.  Things that I am looking for over Nebraska... and California mean so much down stream.



Everyone in my office is awaiting your next update.  There's talk of breaking out the sleds.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Keep the good news coming DDD for Paulding county!


----------



## Keebs

Jeff C. said:


> With DDD's post above and that map, I think I'm going to see 3-5 inches. Probably on the 3" side more than likely.


 I guess I won't be seeing you then!


----------



## Jeff C.

Keebs said:


> I guess I won't be seeing you then!



Watchin it like a Hawk!


----------



## Toddcosper

It is the end of the month and I am trying to work.... but this is too exciting!!!


----------



## Hornet22

I hate cold weather


----------



## 91xjgawes

Toddcosper said:


> It is the end of the month and I am trying to work.... but this is too exciting!!!



Agreed! I think we are in good shape here around Augusta.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> FYI, RGEM... short range model just showed us some good love.  If the NW trend will continue, everyone will be in business.
> 
> Just so you guys understand... these model runs and the details of them are maddening.  Things that I am looking for over Nebraska... and California mean so much down stream.



DDD, is the NAM picking up the Low off of Baja yet, would be great for it to come and be a play maker in this.


----------



## Jeff Phillips

I just got back from Alberta. Keep the snow south of Forsyth County and I will be happy!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Yep, y'all keep it all down there, and y'all can frolic around in it up to your knees and giggle and make snow angels and slide all over the road. And I can get a break from it.


----------



## Lee

I'm really just a lurker here, but I've enjoyed watching. It's funny how far the reach goes beyond this board. I'm a pastor and at church yesterday one of our student's parents was talking about their band trip to Savanah on Thursday. I told her that she probably wouldn't be going because of the weather. She told me I was crazy that there was nothing on the news about it. She texted me this morning, asking me how I knew about the weather down there. ha ha

I've got my sled out in Paulding just in case.


----------



## DDD

Another update and after reading some blogs and such from other METS around the south east.

There is not one professional MET that thinks any one model has a handle on this storm.  One that I trust very much in these situations thinks ATL and points northward will be just fine if you like 2-4" of snow.

Others think ATL gets hosed.

It's 24 hours away and the models can't get a good handle on a solution.  That in itself is scary.

What is for sure is that Macon down to somewhere north of Tifton is going to be the sweet spot for high totals.  South of that snow line I am still very concerned between a sleet storm and freezing rain.  That could turn into a real, real big mess.

Up here in my area, I am going to be begging for precip to break out over MS and north LA early and often late tonight into early tomorrow morning.


----------



## georgia357

JonathanG2013 said:


> Here is the smaller pic of the Georgia snow map from NOAA.




Dang, that picture is kinda small, can hardly see it.  Is there any way you could blow it up some?   

j/k JonathanG, it's plenty big enough


----------



## Matt.M

Thanks Triple D.

So frustrating.  Buy sleds or not?  If I buy some sleds, will it totally kill our chances at snow?  Mental dilemma.


----------



## mudracing101

DDD said:


> Another update and after reading some blogs and such from other METS around the south east.
> 
> There is not one professional MET that thinks any one model has a handle on this storm.  One that I trust very much in these situations thinks ATL and points northward will be just fine if you like 2-4" of snow.
> 
> Others think ATL gets hosed.
> 
> It's 24 hours away and the models can't get a good handle on a solution.  That in itself is scary.
> 
> What is for sure is that Macon down to somewhere north of Tifton is going to be the sweet spot for high totals.  South of that snow line I am still very concerned between a sleet storm and freezing rain.  That could turn into a real, real big mess.
> 
> Up here in my area, I am going to be begging for precip to break out over MS and north LA early and often late tonight into early tomorrow morning.



North of Tifton


----------



## orrb

dont buy sleds, just use trash can lids..  then you have no jinx..


----------



## Matthew6

Matt.M said:


> Thanks Triple D.
> 
> So frustrating.  Buy sleds or not?  If I buy some sleds, will it totally kill our chances at snow?  Mental dilemma.



If you buy a sled you are hosed. Trust me.


----------



## Keebs

georgia357 said:


> Dang, that picture is kinda small, can hardly see it.  Is there any way you could blow it up some?
> 
> j/k JonathanG, it's plenty big enough


no it's not and it don't cover far enough south, neither!


Matt.M said:


> Thanks Triple D.
> 
> So frustrating.  Buy sleds or not?  If I buy some sleds, will it totally kill our chances at snow?  Mental dilemma.


Don't you dare jinx it, do not buy a sled, improvise!!!!


mudracing101 said:


> North of Tifton


ROAD TRIP!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## panfried0419

I assume that NE Ga won't see the frozen stuff.


----------



## todd03blown

orrb said:


> dont buy sleds, just use trash can lids..  then you have no jinx..



What is said above


----------



## GA DAWG

As nice out as it is today. Ain't no way it can be blizzarding tomorrow eve.  Can it?


----------



## orrb

GA DAWG said:


> As nice out as it is today. Ain't no way it can be blizzarding tomorrow eve.  Can it?



Every good snow storm we ever had has started with warm weather the day before. 

I remember in the 80's just before the big ice storm hit, As a kid. We were all outside riding bikes and it was warm, next thing we knew it started sleeting.  We rode our  bikes until it got so slick we couldn't.  Wow, what fun that was.  

Same with 1993.  Was warm few days before and was March .. Now that one was fun.  

Praying for snow for Paulding.  I want my nephew to see snow for the first time.. 

I don't expect us to get a blizzard.  Just a dusting of maybe if we are lucky 1inch.  Hoping for more in Paulding.  Who knows, maybe it will be a good one for ALL of GA.


----------



## Trigabby

I may have ruined it for the just south of ATL area... My daughter's "friend"  (not boyfriend, yet, he's trying to get in my good graces) brought over a barely used golf cart top that I'm going to jerry-rig to fit on my tractor as a sun shade...

Well, I leaned it against the side of the house and was walking away.... Then I noticed.. It had handles on the "bottom".. It's slick on the top.. It has a place to put your feet...

I have a golf cart top sled!!!  Woohoo!   


(Ok, so if I break it, I'll just have to get another top for the tractor)..


----------



## jcountry

This is certainly a crazy-looking storm.

Lots of variables.   I hope it all works out for the best.

I was stuck in Baton Rouge last week-and that was a full-on disaster for about 24 hours.   The freezing rain there was forecast for @ 4 hours initially, but something stalled out, and that moisture just kept popping.  We sat there getting solid freezing rain and sleet for 20 hours or so.  

The roads were complete ice rinks.   (I don't think you can even buy road salt down there.)   That was a bad event.   

I hope we get plenty of pretty snow-but maybe not so much of the ice.   That sucks.


----------



## SGADawg

Now y'all are telling us ice/sleet, no snow, down here in the real South Ga.

Can't get the wife/kids to go along with loading up the grands and heading to ground zero aka Lake Sinclair.  Hey, at least we have a fireplace there.


----------



## Atlsooner

orrb said:


> Every good snow storm we ever had has started with warm weather the day before.
> 
> I remember in the 80's just before the big ice storm hit, As a kid. We were all outside riding bikes and it was warm, next thing we knew it started sleeting.  We rode our  bikes until it got so slick we couldn't.  Wow, what fun that was.
> 
> Same with 1993.  Was warm few days before and was March .. Now that one was fun.
> 
> Praying for snow for Paulding.  I want my nephew to see snow for the first time..
> 
> I don't expect us to get a blizzard.  Just a dusting of maybe if we are lucky 1inch.  Hoping for more in Paulding.  Who knows, maybe it will be a good one for ALL of GA.





Makes sense to me you want this warm humid air here,  which will ride over the top of the cold air producing snow. At least that's what DDD has taught me in class over the years. See buddy, I listened in class.


----------



## telco guy

I have a golf cart top sled!!!  Woohoo!   


(Ok, so if I break it, I'll just have to get another top for the tractor)..[/QUOTE]

It will work fine. I had two that the kids used behind a four wheeler!


----------



## orrb

we use a knee board from the ski boat.  It works works great as a sled.


----------



## PappyHoel

Accuweather doesn't even show rain for dawsonville.   Weather under ground says less than an inch for macon.  NOAA shows less than an inch for dawsonville...   

This is crazy all weather sources are predicting something different.


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

Praying it stays south.  Don't want any of that white mess


----------



## savreds

I definitley believe we will get something on the coast, just not sure of what or how much. DDD's mention of up to an inch of ice before the snow is what has me worried. My wife manages a grocery store and expects it to get crazy in there by tonight.


----------



## DDD

quick update before I head off to lunch.

Many of the models... short range especially starting to make me feel slightly better about this thing coming back north and west a touch.

However, if you are south of Griffin, you will need to be on alert tomorrow.  Some models have started bringing the moisture in around 9-10 AM.  The energy out of the west has sped up a little.

For NGA we could see what is described in weather circles as an "over running" event.  Basically moisture in the upper atmosphere over runs cold air, the column saturates and snow breaks out.  Models handle these type of situations absolutely horribly.  Northern Metro areas very well may see that tomorrow.


I cannot express how crazy this set up is.  From location, to amounts, to cutoff of precip.

Biggest worry for me is Macon southward.  Especially SOUTHWARD.  I pray it is a huge sleet storm where it is not snowing, because if it's not, its going to be a devastating ice storm in MY opinion.


----------



## Crickett

Thank you for the updates DDD! 




Matt.M said:


> Thanks Triple D.
> 
> So frustrating.  Buy sleds or not?  If I buy some sleds, will it totally kill our chances at snow?  Mental dilemma.



Don't buy a sled. We always used a plastic toilet seat lid. That thing was awesome!  My stepdad found us one back during the Blizzard of '93 & we slid on that thing for hours!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> quick update before I head off to lunch.
> 
> Many of the models... short range especially starting to make me feel slightly better about this thing coming back north and west a touch.
> 
> However, if you are south of Griffin, you will need to be on alert tomorrow.  Some models have started bringing the moisture in around 9-10 AM.  The energy out of the west has sped up a little.
> 
> For NGA we could see what is described in weather circles as an "over running" event.  Basically moisture in the upper atmosphere over runs cold air, the column saturates and snow breaks out.  Models handle these type of situations absolutely horribly.  Northern Metro areas very well may see that tomorrow.
> 
> 
> I cannot express how crazy this set up is.  From location, to amounts, to cutoff of precip.
> 
> Biggest worry for me is Macon southward.  Especially SOUTHWARD.  I pray it is a huge sleet storm where it is not snowing, because if it's not, its going to be a devastating ice storm in MY opinion.



Ya know what gets me about this post, and it is nothing to do with you, DDD, I like your style. 

What gets me about this post is that all of my weather apps and reports; I don't go into it like you guys do with analyzing the models myself (I ain't got no time fo dat), but I do pay closer attention than some, and none of them are calling for anything that would have me as nervous as what you just said. That's even counting the verbiage of the NWS watch statement. It would seem to me to be prudent to indicate just how variable, and how powerful, the models are predicting this thing to be. That way we could be OVER cautious rather than under. 

Weather.com is just now sounding a decent warning, in comparison to yours, DDD, but this doesn't even deserve a name, it would appear. 

The NE, and upper Midwest get snow EVERY, SINGLE, YEAR with many clipper storms throughout the season, but they see fit to warn you about WS Kronos, or WS Idiotic, by name and they'll get somewhere between 15-20 of them over the course of the season. Ya know, about once a week like THEY ALWAYS HAVE!

But no, a storm that may only hit Atlanta or our area in general doesn't get a name, and it barely gets a warning, until the night before it hits and we need more than 1 night to prepare properly. It would be nice if everyone had salt of their own for their driveways or sidewalks, but it's a silly thing to leave in the garage between the storms every 5-10 years. 

I just get peeved with how unbalanced it all is. 

If the NE is going to get a snowstorm they now have to name it and make it sound like the apocalypse. If the SE is getting a chance of ice or snow, they wait until the last second to give anyone any kind of stern warning, and then it really is the apocalypse because no one, the government or individual, is really prepared and then venture forth causing themselves and others harm. 

Anywho, I just had to vent that with people who would be sure to understand it. Thanks, and please carry on with our jovial musings on the weather.


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## XJfire75

Watching this closely as y'all are. 

I'll be headed into work downtown Savannah on an ambulance at 6am Wednesday morning. 

Luckily I used to drive every chance I got to when it would snow in the NW Ga mountains so I got a little leg up on the other commuters. But ice ain't not joke. Hoping it stays cold and keeps us out of that danger. Only one way to find out!


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## Jeff Phillips

Delta just cancelled my flights to and from Baton Rouge for tomorrow and Wednesday...


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## Arrow3

A few hours ago weather.com said we (Athens area) were gonna get two inches...Now it's saying just a little slush.


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## DDD

Arrow3 said:


> A few hours ago weather.com said we (Athens area) were gonna get two inches...Now it's saying just a little slush.



I would pay weather.com about as much attention as a catfish in a bass tournament.


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## PappyHoel

Arrow3 said:


> A few hours ago weather.com said we (Athens area) were gonna get two inches...Now it's saying just a little slush.



And it will change 10 more times I bet.  This is definetly a crazy system


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## Bitteroot

They always under predict NW GA cause history is on their side..... Always a bust.....


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## WickedKwik

EURO goes BOOM for people inland.  Need to keep this trend up.


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## krisjack

I wish this storm gives us here in Leesburg 3 to 5 inches of snow.We never had that much here.


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## RinggoldGa

Arrow3 said:


> A few hours ago weather.com said we (Athens area) were gonna get two inches...Now it's saying just a little slush.



Those national sites are slow and plundering with few accurate updates and cautious to a fault.   I believe most of what they put up as far as forecast information for your zip code is all automated and based on generalized data and not actual forecasting.  

I'd estimate they fall 6-12 hours behind the most up to date data folks like DDD and Miguel are analyzing and providing to us here.  

To use an analogy weather.com can tell you "hunting is fair to good in Hancock County" whereas DDD/Miguel are telling you that there at 3 150 class bucks, 8 140 class bucks, and 12 130 class bucks all within in the southeast corner of the county, and yesterday more than half of them were active from noon -1pm on field edges and in thicker funnels from bedding areas to acorn bearing trees.


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## JonathanG2013

> I'd estimate they fall 6-12 hours behind the most up to date data folks like DDD and Miguel are analyzing and providing to us here.



Miguel is back posting on here. What is his new screen name?

 DDD is doing a great job updating us with this winter storm. I trust him over any of the national weather sites.


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## Workin2Hunt

DDD said:


> I would pay weather.com about as much attention as a catfish in a bass tournament.


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## GA DAWG

Hey DDD what's the best weather app or site for our phones. Ones that close a majority of the time?


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## gunsaler111

RinggoldGa said:


> Those national sites are slow and plundering with few accurate updates and cautious to a fault.   I believe most of what they put up as far as forecast information for your zip code is all automated and based on generalized data and not actual forecasting.
> 
> I'd estimate they fall 6-12 hours behind the most up to date data folks like DDD and Miguel are analyzing and providing to us here.
> 
> To use an analogy weather.com can tell you "hunting is fair to good in Hancock County" whereas DDD/Miguel are telling you that there at 3 150 class bucks, 8 140 class bucks, and 12 130 class bucks all within in the southeast corner of the county, and yesterday more than half of them were active from noon -1pm on field edges and in thicker funnels from bedding areas to acorn bearing trees.



Im just pullin in to the first class oil ,in ringold to get me some wings


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## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> Hey DDD what's the best weather app or site for our phones. Ones that close a majority of the time?



Weather underground is a great one. Lots you can do and see on there and they update often.


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## krisjack

There is now a Winter Storm Warning posted for 
Appling
Bacon
Coffee
Jeff Davis
Wayne.


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## 1john4:4

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/...3/00/1505257_661932400512454_1784610537_n.jpg

Winter storm watch has moved more northward according to WSBTV... Just so y'all know. I gets my winter weather reports rightcheer


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## Msteele

Weather Channel has the light snow all the way up to Chattanooga.


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## TBI

weather.com is now saying 2-4" for Barnesville tomorrow and another 1-2" tomorrow night. Guess they're finally getting on board.


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## Nate23

DDD said:


> Weather underground is a great one. Lots you can do and see on there and they update often.



Off topic but, interesting how WU and Weather Channel are owned by the same parent company (TWCC), yet the quality of the products/apps are quite different.


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## mudracing101

My phone went from 80% chance to zero on Wed.


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## RinggoldGa

JonathanG2013 said:


> Miguel is back posting on here. What is his new screen name?
> 
> DDD is doing a great job updating us with this winter storm. I trust him over any of the national weather sites.



If he's not I can understand why he left.  You can explain something to people over and over but they are just never going to get it.  If I spent my time and expertise trying to provide information to fellow board members only to have those who couldn't explain barometric pressure to save their lives overly critical of my efforts I'd probably stay off these threads too.  

I have always lurked and really only come on here to read the Winter Weather thread(s) every year.  I remain amazed at the patience DDD and Miquel give as they are repeatedly bombarded with what often are less than insightful and intelligent comments and questions.

And Jonathan this isn't directed at you at all, just a general comment.  

It's evidenced by the fact that DDD has told us repeatedly over the years that the Weather Channel app and the weather.com site are essentially worthless as far as forecasting events as this.  Yet we'll continue to read in this thread and every one after it what that app and that site are forecasting for every point between Ellijay and Waycross.

Folks, you can sit back and watch a Picasso paint a picture (DDD) for us or you can watch someone make a paint by numbers piece my 5 year old could do (weather.com/weather channel app).   Pick one or the other.


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## mrs. hornet22

Lock er down. 

Time for a new one Triple D.


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## GA DAWG

Ut oh. We over a 1000.


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## deerhuntingdawg

Winter Storm Warning for Mcduffie County


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## jcountry

Already raining in thomaston....


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## Matt.M

1006. Third time's a charm.  Winter Weather III.


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## crackerdave

Take the body off a wheelbarrow..makes a dandy sled!


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## grunt0331

Part III now up.....

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=790744


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## Mountainbuck

Weather channel has also got light snow f


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## Mountainbuck

For chatsworth ga


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## DDD

Lock it up please.  New thread is up.


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