# Winter Weather Thread 2012 - 2013



## DDD

So the much anticipated, much thought and reading has brought us to this.  I am not going to ramble too much, but I have high hopes for some white stuff this year.  (I do every year... let's be honest)

There are some things that are negative nancy's that point towards low chances of winter weather, but there are others that point towards good chances.

Let's start with the bad.  El Nino looks to be minimal at best.  It's more of a Neutral signal.  It's not La Nina like last year, so that is a good thing.  Climatology also is never in favor of the SE having winter weather.  It is usually a rare event.  

Let's talk about the good.  Between the years of 1875 and 1915 the earth experienced a solar reduction.  Basically the sun dimmed and the average global temps dropped between the years of 1880 - 1910.  This is not by chance.  Guess where we are at right now?  and scientist believe it may reduce to levels as low or lower than the Little Ice Age between now and 2035.  

The sun has been the most active between 1950 - 2000.  Al Gore would have you believe that man has heated up the earth.  I submit that the sun has heated up the earth and we are headed towards global cooling.  Surely Al will take credit for saving the world over the next 30 years!  

Without fail the most influencing factor is the Atlantic Oscillation.  If it goes negative we are in business.  2 years ago we had a strong La Nina and the AO went negative and boom!  Snowmegedon.  

I have put the map below together for very general purposes.  The lines are a little faint so I apologize for that.  The mountains will naturally have more snow because they get more lift in the atmosphere.  You want some big flakes? Get some vertical lift of moisture and those flakes will get big.  

The red area is where I think we get snow this year.  I am going to hold out for 1 main event and 1 semi-main event.  I also think we could see the all famous Tommy Wedge make a come back.  That wedge has not been in place good in almost 7 years.  It's way, way over due.

Let the fun begin.  

Good cold snap on Monday just to tease us, but have no doubt, Fall has arrived. 

Bring on Winter!


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## Nicodemus

I won`t be so bold as to holler for snow down here in my part of the state, even though I`d  like to have a good snowfall. Preferably the second weekend in January. I would like to see some really cold weather like we had in 2009 and 2010. Or even colder, won`t hurt my feelins none.


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## todd03blown

Love it!


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## higgy




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## shakey gizzard

Nicodemus said:


> I won`t be so bold as to holler for snow down here in my part of the state, even though I`d  like to have a good snowfall. Preferably the second weekend in January. I would like to see some really cold weather like we had in 2009 and 2010. Or even colder, won`t hurt my feelins none.



Yer knee dont have no feelins?


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## Miguel Cervantes




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## Nicodemus

shakey gizzard said:


> Yer knee dont have no feelins?





Yea, it never stops hurtin`. I`m used to it. It won`t forecast weather for me though.


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## jbird1




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## BornToHuntAndFish

This evening on the local TV weather reports I heard that Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah just received their 1st significant snowfall of the season.


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## savreds

I luvs to ski in the Little Cottonwood Canyon!!!


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## TurkeyKiller12

Whew.... I was going to make a weather related comment but DDD's avatar got me tore up. I'll be glad when you change that thing to something else DDD.


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## Miguel Cervantes

CanyonHunter said:


> Whew.... I was going to make a weather related comment but DDD's avatar got me tore up. I'll be glad when you change that thing to something else DDD.



What are you talking about? That is DDD. And he wonders why so many of his umpire calls are disputed!!


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## TurkeyKiller12

If thats DDD I know why it nevers snows here now! lol.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Found this site interesting, though subjectively speculative regarding our WW 2012-13 forecast. I certainly don't like seeing the word "ice" crop up, but we are long overdue for a good ol' fashioned ice storm, and with long range forecasts setting us up on the cusp of winter precipitation that is exactly what we would see.

I'll show you these very unofficial forecast maps and let you be the judge.


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## win280

I will take all of it except the Ice. 
Ice should be in a cooler or in a glass.Not on the ground and powerlines.


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## Miguel Cervantes

win280 said:


> I will take all of it except the Ice.
> Ice should be in a cooler or in a glass.Not on the ground and powerlines.



It is one of the ugly realities of the Winter Weather thread that none of us like to talk about. It is the Severe element that we hope will not happen, but deep down know that one day it will.


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## PappyHoel

Will this thread be updated beyond Dec 21st 2012?  The climate could change on that day, just sayin


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## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Will this thread be updated beyond Dec 21st 2012?  The climate could change on that day, just sayin



Depends on what happens.  But 2014 is a more likely date range..


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## Miguel Cervantes

A little pre-conditioning to help y'all prepare..


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## savreds

I remember getting snow and ice on mutiple occasions back in the late 60's and thru the 70's even down here on da coast. The last thing we had to amount to anything was the big snow event right before Christmas in '88 I believe.  
If we had anything even close to that now there would be thousands of vehicles destroyed and abandoned on the sides of the roads and ditches... these idjits down here can't even drive when it gets cloudy much less when it rains or heaven forbid, snows!


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little pre-conditioning to help y'all prepare..
> 
> 
> View attachment 690334



 my eyes, my eyes!!!


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## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little pre-conditioning to help y'all prepare..
> 
> 
> View attachment 690334





Memories.....


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## blood on the ground

Nicodemus said:


> Memories.....



eewww you was a lineman right?


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## Nicodemus

blood on the ground said:


> eewww you was a lineman right?





Yep, till I retired. And got wore slam out. Transmission lineman, but durin` storm restoration I worked distribution too.


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## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little pre-conditioning to help y'all prepare..
> 
> 
> View attachment 690334





Nicodemus said:


> Memories.....


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## BornToHuntAndFish

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> This evening on the local TV weather reports I heard that Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah just received their 1st significant snowfall of the season.



The short news 1:54 min. video from the web link below mentions that most of the 9-25-2012 snowfall was at 9,000 FT elevations & was only 4-5 inches, but you can tell that excitement was in the air about the 1st snow of the season. 



http://fox13now.com/2012/09/25/first-heavy-snow-falls-early-in-the-mountains/ 

First heavy snow falls early in the mountains

September 25, 2012 


LITTLE COTTONWOOD CANYON, Utah


<script src="http://player.ooyala.com/player.js?video_pcode=x1b3E6uSQFrERylr1X1PdViOr0tE&height=360&embedCode=lkeDQwNjp5FD4tYjqbz1b25c2yL_rutg&deepLinkEmbedCode=lkeDQwNjp5FD4tYjqbz1b25c2yL_rutg&width=640"></script>



Here's a few recent photo samples starting with the Snowbird Snow Skiing Slopes & with the 3rd photo URL seeming to indicate it was the Alta Ski Slopes in the distance:  



http://www.skiutah.com/winter/photos/photoset16 


"The first snow of the 2012-13 season came on September 25th, 2012. Check out the photos from Utah's resorts." 


























savreds said:


> I luvs to ski in the Little Cottonwood Canyon!!!



Yep, I've had some good times snow skiing in Utah, too.  Seems to be a bit less crowded than Colorado. 


"The first snow of the 2012-13 season came on September 25th, 2012. Check out the photos from Utah's resorts." 




















Miguel Cervantes said:


> Found this site interesting, though subjectively speculative regarding our WW 2012-13 forecast. I certainly don't like seeing the word "ice" crop up, but we are long overdue for a good ol' fashioned ice storm, and with long range forecasts setting us up on the cusp of winter precipitation that is exactly what we would see.
> 
> I'll show you these very unofficial forecast maps and let you be the judge.
> 
> View attachment 690316
> 
> View attachment 690317
> 
> View attachment 690318
> 
> View attachment 690319
> 
> View attachment 690320



Very in interesting long range Winter Weather discussions blog that started early back in August 2012 at the web link below:  



http://www.cirruswx.net/apps/blog/show/17999931-cirrus-weather-preliminary-winter-2012-13-outlook 

Cirrus Weather Preliminary Winter 2012-13 Outlook

Posted on August 15, 2012 at 1:00 AM	

Cirrus Weather Long-Range Outlooks

Winter 2012-2013

PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK AUGUST 13, 2012


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## savreds

Gonna be passing thru DDD's neck of the woods in about 15-20 minutes... Wunder if'n I could get a personalized Winter Weather forecast!


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## SarahFair

I wouldnt mind a large snow storm.. or ice.
I like playing survivor


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## Nicodemus

SarahFair said:


> I wouldnt mind a large snow storm.. or ice.
> I like playing survivor




Me too......now.


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## savreds

Well we flew right on by but I didn't see his giant snow machine anywhere... he must have that dang thang hidden pretty good!


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## DDD

One of the very good weather forecasters that I follow out of North Carolina posted this map tonight.  He is one of the best I believe, in the SE forecasting winter wx.

He thinks we are in for it.  His thoughts and mine are similar along with our maps.  

These are his comments and his map.  I take 0 credit for any of this:



> The Winter coming up looks like a D-O-O-Z-Y ! If you're younger than 40, you probably don't realize what a strong negative NAO and + NAO pattern can do in the mid South region to Mid Atlantic. Remember the DC /Mid-Atlantic back to back blizzards a couple years ago? Translate that southbound and a little west ...It looks like an extreme Winter for the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley to Southern Apps, with cold Arctic Air Outbreaks both before AND behind the big Gulf Storms. All you have to do is remember the Winters of 2009, 2010, 2011 and throw in some elements of 1970's, 1960's to get an idea of what could lie ahead.


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## bamaboy

Farmers Almanac predicts Ga will see more snow this winter than it has seen in over 30 + years.


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## flyfisher76544

Bring it, every time ya'll had some good cold weather I was deployed.


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## savreds

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Yep, I've had some good times snow skiing in Utah, too.  Seems to be a bit less crowded than Colorado.



I learned to ski at Snowbird. It took me about a half-day to unlearn all of my time of waterski jumping muscle memory/reflexes so that i could stay up, that's two COMPLETELY different kinds of techniques.
We skiied  Snowbird, Alta, Brighton and Solitude that year and yes it is definitely less crowded than Colorado!


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## Miguel Cervantes

bamaboy said:


> Farmers Almanac predicts Ga will see more snow this winter than it has seen in over 30 + years.



You got a link to that? Because what I've seen related to the FA says nothing of the sort. Not saying you're wrong, I'd just like to see where I need to be looking.


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## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You got a link to that? Because what I've seen related to the FA says nothing of the sort. Not saying you're wrong, I'd just like to see where I need to be looking.



We looked @ the farmers almanac while in the hardware store today & it said nothing about snow or ice for GA.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Crickett said:


> We looked @ the farmers almanac while in the hardware store today & it said nothing about snow or ice for GA.


Yep, that's why I was wondering where he saw that.


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## Nicodemus

I haven`t seen the Greers Almanac yet, but the Farmers Almanac doesn`t say anything about it that I can see either.


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## bamaboy

bamaboy said:


> Farmers Almanac predicts Ga will see more snow this winter than it has seen in over 30 + years.



I may be wrong on this,I was going off what someone else told me in a weather conversation. Sorry guys!


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## blood on the ground

so ya'll get this thing started... it was 70 and rain in paulding this morning = yuck! 
im thankful for the rain i just want it to be COLD for a while!


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> so ya'll get this thing started... it was 70 and rain in paulding this morning = yuck!
> im thankful for the rain i just want it to be COLD for a while!



Hang on a day or two and you'll be comfy again. A couple of days of a good soakin rain and some cooler temps mean we'll be seeing good fall color on the trees almost over night..


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## savreds

I walked out into a sauna this morning and started having flashbacks from July... come on cool weather!


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## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hang on a day or two and you'll be comfy again. A couple of days of a *good soakin rain and some cooler temps *mean we'll be seeing good fall color on the trees almost over night..



Fer sure on the fall color! it's finally rained IMBY!


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## win280

HMIMBY


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## DDD

win280 said:


> HMIMBY


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## greg_n_clayton

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hang on a day or two and you'll be comfy again. A couple of days of a good soakin rain and some cooler temps mean we'll be seeing good fall color on the trees almost over night..



Didn't ya'll see my post in the fall driveler ???


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## DDD

Who is ready for highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's???

Show of hands.


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## Nicodemus

And even colder...


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## Keebs

DDD said:


> Who is ready for highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's???
> 
> Show of hands.


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## Nitram4891




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## Keebs

Nitram4891 said:


>


 show off!


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## DDD

Nicodemus said:


> And even colder...





Keebs said:


>





Nitram4891 said:


>




Sunday and Monday is for you!!!!

High around 67° Sunday and Monday with lows around 46°  

Maybe a hair warmer down south, but not by much.


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## DDD

TWC is naming them now... interesting...


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## Keebs

DDD said:


> Sunday and Monday is for you!!!!
> 
> High around 67° Sunday and Monday with lows around 46°
> 
> Maybe a hair warmer down south, but not by much.





DDD said:


> TWC is naming them now... interesting...


  where'd they get them names?!??!


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## DDD

Keebs said:


> where'd they get them names?!??!



What else do you expect from weather nerds?


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## Keebs

DDD said:


> What else do you expect from weather nerds?


 you & the Messican could come up with WAY better names than those!


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## mudracing101

Looks like low 60's to low 80's for us next week, for a day then back to normal, hot today outside.


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## todd03blown

DDD said:


> TWC is naming them now... interesting...



This is interesting. Makes me almost think they expect a large outbreak of winter weather this year (as you have been discussing thus far) and what better way for a big winter weather season then to name the storms!


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## elfiii

DDD said:


> Who is ready for highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's???
> 
> Show of hands.



Bring it. I ain't got but one bottle of Thermacell likker left.


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> TWC is naming them now... interesting...



Man they are getting bored up there, or did they get an Obama grant and needed to make up something to spend the money on.

Let me think on it a while, I'm sure we could come up with a better list of names..


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## blood on the ground

whats up with the names??? 

56 and very foggy in N paulding this morning


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## mudracing101

blood on the ground said:


> whats up with the names???
> 
> 56 and very foggy in N paulding this morning



68 here.


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## pstrahin

I wish it was 28° and SNOWING!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

A crisp 58 here..


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## savreds

It was over 70 and humid... again!


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## Keebs

Hey Miguel........... am I gonna have to call the ball games off down here tonight?!?!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> Hey Miguel........... am I gonna have to call the ball games off down here tonight?!?!



I don't think snow will be much of a problem for you.


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## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't think snow will be much of a problem for you.


 ok, fine, that's how ya wanna be!


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## BornToHuntAndFish

pstrahin said:


> I wish it was 28° and SNOWING!!



Yesterday's local TV weather news reported about North Dakota getting their 1st snow.  The evening reports included 14-inches of snow in what appeared to be northern Minnesota.  

Looks like cooling times are headed this way toward the Southeast by Sunday & Monday morning temps can be in the 40's in the metro Atlanta suburbs.


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## DDD

Gonna be chilly willy tonight and in the morning....  low 40's in the burbs, 30's in the mountains.  

Time to turn on the heater!


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## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Gonna be chilly willy tonight and in the morning....  low 40's in the burbs, 30's in the mountains.
> 
> Time to turn on the heater!



sure wish that was the forecast for saturday morning... looking warm/hot for deer hunting this wknd


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## DDD

blood on the ground said:


> sure with that was the forecast for saturday morning... looking warm/hot for deer hunting this wknd



Saturday's high is 75 with lows in the mid 50's, humidity will be on the increase as showers may roll in for Sunday.


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## Wade Chandler

Only got down to 44.6 up here last night. I was really hoping for some 30's.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Makes me wish I were in Copper Mountain Colorado..


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## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Makes me wish I were in Copper Mountain Colorado..
> 
> View attachment 692853



  


Oh good lord... there ya go with them dang pictures again!!!



That is mighty purdy ain't it... wish I was over there myself 

Copper was my favorite place in Colorado!


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## GA DAWG

Where's the cold weather? Don't tell me Im gonna need to carry my big generator to run my air condition next weekend in cordele.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Where's the cold weather? Don't tell me Im gonna need to carry my big generator to run my air condition next weekend in cordele.



Cold weather in Cordele?


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## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Cold weather in Cordele?


Well cooler less knatty weather


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## savreds

GA DAWG said:


> Well cooler less knatty weather



Why you be hatin' on da knats... At least they help keep sum uh da Yankees away!!!


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## GA DAWG

savreds said:


> Why you be hatin' on da knats... At least they help keep sum uh da Yankees away!!!


People claim they get use to em. I've been watching folks over the yrs there. What they are used to swatting at em. They done swatted so much. They don't notice it no more  50s is decent. Below that is real good and my accuweather is calling for 40 in Arabi next sat. Yall think that's close?


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## Keebs

GA DAWG said:


> People claim they get use to em. I've been watching folks over the yrs there. What they are used to swatting at em. They done swatted so much. They don't notice it no more  50s is decent. Below that is real good and my accuweather is calling for 40 in Arabi next sat. Yall think that's close?


 you near 'bout huntin my back yard!


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## GA DAWG

Keebs said:


> you near 'bout huntin my back yard!


I like it to. Once it cools down some


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## Keebs

GA DAWG said:


> I like it to. Once it cools down some


 I know what ya mean, dadgum gnats were still out today!


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## savreds

Keebs said:


> I know what ya mean, dadgum gnats were still out today!



y'all just got them gnats that fly around yer face... well, and the dogs butt. I need to send ya some of our sand gnats so you'll appreciate those ones that don't bite!


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## Keebs

savreds said:


> y'all just got them gnats that fly around yer face... well, and the dogs butt. I need to send ya some of our sand gnats so you'll appreciate those ones that don't bite!


 NOOOOooooo, that's ok, really, I have met your sand gnats personally, really, KEEP THEM!!!!!!!!!!!


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## savreds

Normally this time of the year, when it's nice, the dang gnats will eat you alive but for some reason they haven't bothered us at all, which is fine by me!


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## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Oh good lord... there ya go with them dang pictures again!!!
> 
> 
> 
> That is mighty purdy ain't it... wish I was over there myself
> 
> Copper was my favorite place in Colorado!



That's just a little snow. This is what we might be in store for this winter.


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## gobbleinwoods

Snow fun, ice bad!


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## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's just a little snow. This is what we might be in store for this winter.
> 
> View attachment 693058



That's what I'm worried about, I'll take the snow any day!


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## BornToHuntAndFish

Looks like we're starting a week of cooler Fall mornings.


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## DDD

Opening day forecast looks nice.

Low around 43-47 depending on location and a high of 70°   So good hunting in the morning... a nap in the sunshine and then sit the food plot the last 2 hours before dark.

Sound like a plan?


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## DDD

Good news is there is no significant warm up in sight.

Bad news is after tomorrow we will be rainless for what looks like the better part of 2 weeks.  Temps are going to be low to mid 70's but now the lows for Saturday (opening day) are even lower!  

30's in the mountains for lows and 40's here with some folks not getting even to 70° on Saturday.


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## Keebs

DDD said:


> Good news is there is no significant warm up in sight.
> 
> Bad news is after tomorrow we will be rainless for what looks like the better part of 2 weeks.  Temps are going to be low to mid 70's but now the lows for Saturday (opening day) are even lower!
> 
> 30's in the mountains for lows and 40's here with some folks not getting even to 70° on Saturday.


As bad as I hate to "close up the pool" I am sooooo ready for cooler weather!!


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## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Opening day forecast looks nice.
> 
> Low around 43-47 depending on location and a high of 70°   So good hunting in the morning... a nap in the sunshine and then sit the food plot the last 2 hours before dark.
> 
> Sound like a plan?





DDD said:


> Good news is there is no significant warm up in sight.
> 
> Bad news is after tomorrow we will be rainless for what looks like the better part of 2 weeks.  Temps are going to be low to mid 70's but now the lows for Saturday (opening day) are even lower!
> 
> 30's in the mountains for lows and 40's here with some folks not getting even to 70° on Saturday.



i like the sound of them temps DDD!


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## BornToHuntAndFish

DDD said:


> Opening day forecast looks nice.
> 
> Low around 43-47 depending on location and a high of 70°   So good hunting in the morning... a nap in the sunshine and then sit the food plot the last 2 hours before dark.
> 
> Sound like a plan?



Yep, cooler mornings should help get whitetails on their feet & moving more.  

Wish our hunting land lease owners would do food plots for deer; when it's not drought conditions they at least do some dove food plots.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's a pic posted today by one of the guys on the slope grooming crew at Vail. I can almost smell the crisp cold air.


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## WOODIE13

Bring on duck and goose season


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## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a pic posted today by one of the guys on the slope grooming crew at Vail. I can almost smell the crisp cold air.
> 
> View attachment 693629



That looks like one of those "sissy" slopes!


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## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> That looks like one of those "sissy" slopes!



Don't it though? But right now I'd take a sissy slope in Colorado over living here..


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## Dustin Pate

Whats the weather looking like for Orlando, Fl next week? Got a little vacation lined up.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Dustin Pate said:


> Whats the weather looking like for Orlando, Fl next week? Got a little vacation lined up.



Looks like partly cloudy, lows in the mid 60's and highs in the mid 80's.


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## Dustin Pate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like partly cloudy, lows in the mid 60's and highs in the mid 80's.



Sounds good!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Oh what a difference a few days make. Check out this series of dated photo's of Copper Mountain Colorado.


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## GA DAWG

Is it gonna rain tonight? My phone says rain. Yet I see none on radar.


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## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Is it gonna rain tonight? My phone says rain. Yet I see none on radar.



Best shot is from 6am to about 4pm tomorrow. It needs to get out of here by noon though, cause I have a Cross Country Regional Qualifier to set up and be ready for by 3:30.


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## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Oh what a difference a few days make. Check out this series of dated photo's of Copper Mountain Colorado.
> 
> View attachment 693695




  



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Best shot is from 6am to about 4pm tomorrow. It needs to get out of here by noon though, cause I have a Cross Country Regional Qualifier to set up and be ready for by 3:30.



How's your son doing this year? Mine graduated last year so I heaven't been to any meets.


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## blood on the ground

we need a heavy frost ta make the danged ol grass stop growin!


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## DDD

blood on the ground said:


> we need a heavy frost ta make the danged ol grass stop growin!



Right now it looks like possible frost on the pumpkin come Halloween week.

Stay tuned.


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## Keebs

DDD said:


> Right now it looks like possible frost on the pumpkin come Halloween week.
> 
> Stay tuned.


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## GA DAWG

Plum non wintery down here and deer ain't moving but gnats are


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## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> How's your son doing this year? Mine graduated last year so I heaven't been to any meets.



He wrapped up his JV season Wednesday a week ago, and since he's an 8th grader he moved up to Varisity to run their last regular season race and then today's Region Championship Qualifier. The team placed fourth in the qualifier this afternoon so I guess we'll be heading to the Varsity State Championships in Albany in a couple of weeks.


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## BrotherBadger

SarahFair said:


> I wouldnt mind a large snow storm.. or ice.
> I like playing survivor



It's fun as long as you don't get stuck in your car. Two years ago we had a huge blizzard(winds 50mph+, 23 inches of snow overnight), and i heard of folks who got stuck on a country road just south of me for 36 hours. The snow was so high from the snow drifts that they couldn't open their doors to get out. Here's a video of what it was like just east of me.



Since then, i've always kept survival gear in my backseat(Sleeping bag, rations, water bottles, a candle in a coffee can, ect). The Candle is key, as it can warm up your car up to 20 degrees above the outside temp(just need to keep a window cracked to keep air circulating in).




pstrahin said:


> I wish it was 28° and SNOWING!!



Spoken like someone who has never had to shovel snow after a blizzard.

You can stay up here with me next time we get a foot of snow overnight and let you shovel my drive for me, that might change your tune. That being said, i love early winter. When the temps are in the high 20s/low 30s and snow on the ground, it's absolutely beautiful.

Today's high is 53, with a low of 39. A hot streak(for this time of year) is coming up with most of next week in the high 60s/low 70s, then back to the mid 50s by next week. After that, the avg high temp drops by 4-5 degrees a week until december rolls around. We are expecting a bitter cold winter up here, with normal snowfall.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He wrapped up his JV season Wednesday a week ago, and since he's an 8th grader he moved up to Varisity to run their last regular season race and then today's Region Championship Qualifier. The team placed fourth in the qualifier this afternoon so I guess we'll be heading to the Varsity State Championships in Albany in a couple of weeks.





Surely some weather lover in Albany will let you climb up in a deer stand down there for a little R&R.


----------



## blood on the ground

45 on the hill in north paulding this mornin... thankya Lord


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Surely some weather lover in Albany will let you climb up in a deer stand down there for a little R&R.



Spent dang near 5 months down there a few winters ago and didn't find one then.


----------



## mudracing101

blood on the ground said:


> 45 on the hill in north paulding this mornin... thankya Lord



Reading this morning on the back porch says 62
I guess its better than 72


----------



## DDD

High tomorrow around 67-70 in the metro ATL, cooler in the mountains, slightly warmer in S GA.

Next week is going to be down right gorgeous.  It would be a good week to have a sick day... cough... cough...


----------



## deerhunter75

We got down to 44 this morning in Greenville Ga at the hunting club.

Deerhunter75


----------



## Bitteroot

Fast pitch weather!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Bitteroot said:


> Fast pitch weather!!!!!!



You mean, almost ear thumpin weather..


----------



## mudracing101

DDD said:


> High tomorrow around 67-70 in the metro ATL, cooler in the mountains, slightly warmer in S GA.
> 
> Next week is going to be down right gorgeous.  It would be a good week to have a sick day... cough... cough...





deerhunter75 said:


> We got down to 44 this morning in Greenville Ga at the hunting club.
> 
> Deerhunter75





Bitteroot said:


> Fast pitch weather!!!!!!





Miguel Cervantes said:


> You mean, almost ear thumpin weather..



Ya'lll send some south, supposed to be low 80's all next week here.


----------



## blood on the ground

mudracing101 said:


> Ya'lll send some south, supposed to be low 80's all next week here.



 yuck...anything above mmmm 72 is blazin hawt to me.. I froze the lil women again last night by having the windows open... I don't understand folks when they complain about the heat all summer and then complain that it's freezing when it cools down into the 40's 

BRING ON WINTER....I GOT ME A NEW CHAIN SAW


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mudracing101 said:


> Ya'lll send some south, supposed to be low 80's all next week here.



I'll try and bring some down with me on the 27th.


----------



## mudracing101

Thanks pal, but i'll be headed up north on the 27th .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mudracing101 said:


> Thanks pal, but i'll be headed up north on the 27th .



Idjit,,,,,,,,well I'm bringin it anyway, I hate gnats.


----------



## mudracing101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Idjit,,,,,,,,well I'm bringin it anyway, I hate gnats.



Trust me , on my way back, i'm going to pack as much as i can in the truck and bring it with me south.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

These trick or treaters up in the northern half of the state better wear long johns with their costumes. Looks like parts of North Georgia could drop below freezing by then for night time temps. Looks like a fairly formidable cold front pushing through on the 28th / 29th bringing the coldest temps of the fall so far.

And for what it's worth, it'll be a full moon, rising at 7:58 pm,,,,,,,The official sunset will be at 6:42 with the end of civil twilight (last light) at 7:08.


----------



## GA DAWG

Wooooo-hooooo


----------



## Keebs

mudracing101 said:


> Thanks pal, but i'll be headed up north on the 27th .


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'll try and bring some down with me on the 27th.


----------



## DDD

Interesting scenario.  

The disturbance in the gulf, might phase with a serious cold front and be a mother of a snow storm for the NE states.  Like crazy kind of stuff. 

The EURO and the Canadian models both do this and the GFS sends the disturbance to Europe and says... what snow storm?  It's 8 days out, but will be worth watching.


----------



## Unicoidawg

Any big cool downs coming in the next couple of weeks for NE GA?


----------



## Resica

Heard the EURO showed  this morning a CAT 3 making landfall in Jersey with 3' to 4' of snow back into Pa. A little early for snow, especially that much.


----------



## jonkayak

Time to for you northerners to get the snow blowers tuned up!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> These trick or treaters up in the northern half of the state better wear long johns with their costumes. Looks like parts of North Georgia could drop below freezing by then for night time temps. Looks like a fairly formidable cold front pushing through on the 28th / 29th bringing the coldest temps of the fall so far.
> 
> And for what it's worth, it'll be a full moon, rising at 7:58 pm,,,,,,,The official sunset will be at 6:42 with the end of civil twilight (last light) at 7:08.





Unicoidawg said:


> Any big cool downs coming in the next couple of weeks for NE GA?



Sure, read that quote above yours...


----------



## Unicoidawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sure, read that quote above yours...



Hush it idjit........ I was typing on my phone and didn't take time to read the whole thread.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Unicoidawg said:


> Hush it idjit........ I was typing on my phone and didn't take time to read the whole thread.



I'm not an idjit...............................I'm a knuckledragger...


----------



## Resica

jonkayak said:


> Time to for you northerners to get the snow blowers tuned up!



Just let it melt.


----------



## blood on the ground




----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hey DDD, you following Hoffman on TS Sandy? The Synoptic on this one is wild!!! 

http://www.examiner.com/article/historic-storm-possible-early-next-week


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

WOAH !!!! DDD, did you see this? Spann isn't saying anything about it, so it's a non-event, but still, just showing up on the GFS is exciting. 

Where are you man?? The sun is pumping out X-Class flares and the winter weather is about to get real hinky and you're on vacation or sumpin..


----------



## gacowboy

Frost on the pumpkin Monday or Tuesday ?


----------



## todd03blown

I see Spann posted some updates to his FB page a few hours ago. This looks like things are going to get very interesting for the east coast.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> I see Spann posted some updates to his FB page a few hours ago. This looks like things are going to get very interesting for the east coast.



Spann and Hoffman are the two I would listen to for this crazy storm heading for yankeeville..


----------



## DDD

Yankeeville needs to batten down the hatches.  Sandy is at 925MB and dropping!  Unreal!

If this thing goes in up the NE it could be a whopper.


----------



## DDD

Frost on the pumpkin?  Have mercy.


----------



## todd03blown

Sandy is now a CAT2 with 110mph winds with gusts over 115!


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Sandy is now a CAT2 with 110mph winds with gusts over 115!



Sandy could turn into a snow hurricane in upper New England... that would be something for the record books.


----------



## DDD

Seriously, I am looking over the EURO from last night and I am just like..  

This could be a once in a lifetime storm.  A snow Hurricane.

The EURO just pounds the NE, from Virginia northward.  NC Hillbilly might be in on the action as well.  The DGEX is in agreement with the EURO.

80+" in some places.  This would be EPIC.

Here are some maps.  Unreal.


----------



## DDD

NE GA Mountains?


----------



## DDD

Look at this thing!


----------



## DDD

In fairness to the GFS it takes it out to sea and says, what storm?  But right now it is on an island by itself.  All the other models say Sandy is big and nasty.

Quite rare for this time of year given synoptics.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GFS proponent here, but what I am looking at has Sandy slamming NE, but keeping the coldest air inshore where upwards of 14" of the white stuff can be expected.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

That being said, the Smokies (high elevations) could see a good dusting of snow.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Strange how only a few days ago that forecasts were commonly expecting the storm to just move out to sea away from the U.S. but now there are many growing concerns.  



Yahoo weather headline:  

Monster storm has meteorologists spooked
The collision of a hurricane and arctic blast over the East Coast may be worse than 1991's "Perfect Storm." 









http://weather.yahoo.com/hybrid-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast-064040714.html 

Hybrid of Sandy, winter storm threatens East Coast

Associated Press – 8 hours ago 





Hurricane Sandy Could Be 'Perfect Storm' on East Coast



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/extradinary-circumstances-need/618156 

Extraordinary Circumstances Needed for a Historic Storm

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

October 25, 2012 




























Drudge Report Headlines:  

- TROP STORM WARNINGS: FLORIDA...

- Computer Models...

- Threat for mid-Atlantic, Northeast from hurricane Sandy...

- BIG WINDS, BIG RAINS FOR NYC?

- Extraordinary Circumstances Needed for Historic Storm... 




















http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...b7f1148-1e06-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html 

Mega-storm threat growing for mid-Atlantic and Northeast early next week from hurricane Sandy 

03:15 AM ET, 10/25/2012 
















"GFS snowfall simulation for storm (Weatherbell.com)" 

"Why is the storm unlikely to go out to sea?" 





"Simulation of blocking flow in atmosphere (Penn State)"



http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/10...ther-event-on-track-to-hit-area-this-weekend/ 

Forecasters Warn Of ‘Huge Weather Event’ On Track To Hit Area This Weekend

Early Reports Predict 5 Inches Of Rain, 65 MPH Wind Gusts For NYC Possible

October 24, 2012 11:22 PM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Strange how only a few days ago that forecasts were commonly expecting the storm to just move out to sea away from the U.S. but now there are many growing concerns.


I give up, you are officially the MSM map King...


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I give up, you are officially the MSM map King...



 you make me laugh!!!


 you aint kwitin nuthin


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I give up, you are officially the MSM map King...



Naw, I'm nobody but a simple, curious weather watcher like the rest of ya'll. 

Sorry I got carried away, but I have not had time to post in this thread for a while & became fascinated with all the recent good graphics info.  Was hoping folks would get a bang out of it as much as I do.  Lots of stuff I post is selfish since if I post it here I can come back to it easily, especially when the embedded online graphics get updated every few hours.  Other stuff I'm hoping ya'll will poke holes in the MSM stuff or see other thoughts ya'll have on recent developments.  I kinda miss my college roommate from years ago who was working on his Masters in Meteorology & always had stuff to say about weather developments that I could learn from. 

Ya'll have access to graphics info the rest of us don't have so I like looking & learning from what you all post.  

Looking forward to what's up next.


----------



## todd03blown

This tweet just came from Hurricane Central. Looks like it is getting closer to "game on" for parts of the East coast.

@twc_hurricane: Latest GFS (American) model run shows a sharper turn west of #Sandy making odds for a Northeast U.S. hit even more likely.


----------



## DDD

Sandy looks to want to make a trip to NYC.  This is the real deal... the stuff they try to get people to anticipate.  This could be a snow for the decades in West Virginia.

If I was a single young man, I would be planning a trip up to WV area for next week.  It will be one wild snow storm.

BTHF... you gots to keep it simple man... or you need help with your weather porn addiction.  You like to look at too many pictures.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I give up, you are officially the MSM map King...





DDD said:


> BTHF... you gots to keep it simple man... or you need help with your weather porn addiction.  You like to look at too many pictures.


you two need to take him under ya'll's wings & help the boy out!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

I like pictures. Jus sayin


----------



## bigox911

Well let's just go ahead and get this started


----------



## bigox911

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I give up, you are officially the MSM map King...


----------



## mountainpass

bigox911 said:
			
		

> Well let's just go ahead and get this started



Thanks I just got home from town. The Ingles in town still has some milk left in half gallons and some soy stuff.


----------



## Resica

Frankenstorm is on the way!!


----------



## DDD

Resica said:


> Frankenstorm is on the way!!



Yep.  

Guys, this thing is a MONSTER.  It literally is a snow hurricane / snow bomb.  

The GFS is on board.  So now even Mexicans can believe it. 

I wish I could go witness it in person.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Yep.
> 
> Guys, this thing is a MONSTER.  It literally is a snow hurricane / snow bomb.
> 
> The GFS is on board.  So now even Mexicans can believe it.
> 
> I wish I could go witness it in person.



It's Messican........get it right...

Looks like she'll landfall as a Cat 1 also, contrary to this morning's progs. I'd sure hate to be on the North side of that landfall. Gonna be a rough day for those know it all New Yawkers...


----------



## DDD

I hope they all have the Hoppppper!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I hope they all have the Hoppppper!


----------



## GA DAWG

I forgot to tell yall it frosted here this week sun or mon. Can't member but it was on my windshield.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I forgot to tell yall it frosted here this week sun or mon. Can't member but it was on my windshield.



Where is here?


----------



## Matt.M

Poor little trick-or-treaters are going to be using snow shoes to get their candy.

That said, with enough provisions - it would be a blast to be there.


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Where is here?


In Matt ga. Im on a big creek. That must have something to do with it.


----------



## SnowHunter

So all we'll get down here it cold and frosty right?


----------



## blood on the ground




----------



## DDD

SnowHunter said:


> So all we'll get down here it cold and frosty right?



Roger that.

Also, we look to go back to warm days and cool nights on the front part of November.


----------



## Hornet22

LOTS of guys heading out to work it. Told'em to bring plenty of clothes. Sure am glad I don't climb no more.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> LOTS of guys heading out to work it. Told'em to bring plenty of clothes. Sure am glad I don't climb no more.



Icy poles are da' debil..


----------



## blood on the ground

bring on the coldcampin weather!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

The local metro-Atlanta TV weather news last night is expecting the cool temps to start moving into Georgia on Saturday night & that Mon., Tues., & Wed. the lows expect to be in the mid to upper 30's & highs not getting out of the 50's.  Quite a swing in temps but they are saying the storm's wind field is huge. 

Currently, Sandy has tropical force winds out to 275-miles from the storm's center & hurricane force winds extend out to 35-miles.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...gton-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy.html 

Worst Storm in 100 Years Seen for Northeast U.S.

Oct 26, 2012 8:44 AM ET 


"Frankenstorm Hybrid May Be Created As Sandy Nears East Coast"





"A driver maneuvers his classic American car along a wet road as a wave crashes against the Malecon in Havana, Cuba, on Oct. 25, 2012. Hurricane Sandy blasted across eastern Cuba on Thursday as a potent Category 2 storm and headed for the Bahamas after causing at least two deaths in the Caribbean." 



http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropics-scenarios-us-threat-20121022 

Hurricane Sandy: Potential Serious U.S. Impacts

Oct 26, 2012, 7:29 AM EDT


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Obama built this hurricane so he could declare a state of emergency a week before elections..


----------



## bigox911

Can some more pictures be posted so we can fully understand where this might go?


----------



## Trigabby

Most important question for US is if it will be too windy tomorrow or sunday morning to go hunting...


----------



## win280

Anybody guess as to what it will do to the power grid?
Thats a LOT of wind over a very large area.


----------



## blood on the ground

bigox911 said:


> Can some more pictures be posted so we can fully understand where this might go?


----------



## todd03blown

win280 said:


> Anybody guess as to what it will do to the power grid?
> Thats a LOT of wind over a very large area.



I assume it is going to have a huge impact on the power grid. I heard they are predicting about 60 million people will be impacted. 

TWC just showed a graphic that has parts of the Carolina's, VA, DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania that will be under 30-50mph winds for 2 days with gusts hitting 75mph. I can imagine that would do a lot of damage.


----------



## win280

todd03blown said:


> I assume it is going to have a huge impact on the power grid. I heard they are predicting about 60 million people will be impacted.
> 
> TWC just showed a graphic that has parts of the Carolina's, VA, DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania that will be under 30-50mph winds for 2 days with gusts hitting 75mph. I can imagine that would do a lot of damage.


I was thinking we may have some issues here in Ga also because of the wind. I don't know if we import much electricity from the NE or if Ga Power has enough output without buying  electricity.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Sandy = Tons of moisture = Snow Bomb. Look at these precip and snow totals forecast for the effected area.


----------



## jcountry

I am sure Obama will make it O.K....

Seeing that he has been "stopping the rise of the oceans, and letting the planet begin to heal."

-Puke.


----------



## Fro1911nut

Supposed to be heading to WV week after next for some bow hunting.....guess I will be missing out on the fun


----------



## jcountry

Snow Bomb?

I am just not feeling a huge snow event here.....

I am certainly no expert, but the temps don't even look close.   Looks like 8 to 10 degrees too high to me.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> Snow Bomb?
> 
> I am just not feeling a huge snow event here.....
> 
> I am certainly no expert, but the temps don't even look close.   Looks like 8 to 10 degrees too high to me.
> 
> http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html


Who said anything about here?


----------



## jcountry

Maybe I misread post 167.

Not to discount the probability of major damage, but looks like surge is the main threat here.   I just don't see snow as being an issue.

-We'll see.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> Maybe I misread post 167.
> 
> Not to discount the probability of major damage, but looks like surge is the main threat here.   I just don't see snow as being an issue.
> 
> -We'll see.



There will be no issues "here", check out post 189.


----------



## shakey gizzard




----------



## jcountry

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There will be no issues "here", check out post 189.



I know not here, but I don't see how this thing will produce any snow this side of Canada.   I mean, look at NY temps, even upstate-they are forecast to stay waaay high for snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> I know not here, but I don't see how this thing will produce any snow this side of Canada.   I mean, look at NY temps, even upstate-they are forecast to stay waaay high for snow.



Above 2500 ft in West Virginia is going to get hammered. It is not JUST Sandy that will cause snow, Sandy will provide the obscene amounts of moisture, and the collision of that moisture with the cold air moving in will cause the snow.

We are looking at day time highs in WV well down into the 30's.

Here is a sneak peak at the temps rolling in with this system from the NW.


----------



## NCHillbilly

jcountry said:


> I know not here, but I don't see how this thing will produce any snow this side of Canada.   I mean, look at NY temps, even upstate-they are forecast to stay waaay high for snow.



??? We're under a winter storm watch right now in western NC, with a freeze warning for the next three days-Highs supposed to be in the mid-thirties the next two days, with lows in the twenties. That's plenty cold enough for snow. Some of the biggest snow accumulations I've ever seen have been at around 35*. They're calling for 2"-4" here by Tuesday. And 60mph wind gusts.


----------



## GA DAWG

I guess its time to put new shavings in the dog houses.


----------



## jcountry

NCHillbilly said:


> ??? We're under a winter storm watch right now in western NC, with a freeze warning for the next three days-Highs supposed to be in the mid-thirties the next two days, with lows in the twenties. That's plenty cold enough for snow. Some of the biggest snow accumulations I've ever seen have been at around 35*. They're calling for 2"-4" here by Tuesday. And 60mph wind gusts.



Well, of course in the mountains, but I thought that the guy who mentioned the "snow bomb" was referring to NY and that area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> Well, of course in the mountains, but I thought that the guy who mentioned the "snow bomb" was referring to NY and that area.



I read DDD's post and didn't see him call out any specific locale, other than to indicate that this storm would be a facilitator for such precipitation.


----------



## DDD

jcountry said:


> Well, of course in the mountains, but I thought that the guy who mentioned the "snow bomb" was referring to NY and that area.



What I said was that Sandy was headed to NYC.  I was wrong, she is going in 75 miles south into New Jersey... or so it seems.

This is a worst case scenario.  The pictures that you are going to see on your t.v. the next few days will blow your mind.  I have a bad feeling a lot of people are going to lose life in this storm.

Here is the snow bomb projected amounts.


----------



## DDD

Here is a picture that was taken about 2 hours ago in New Jersey on the coast.  Wow.

If you are the praying kind, I would suggest you remember the folks on the coast and in the mountains tonight as well as the emergency crews that will no doubt be thrust into harms way.


----------



## DDD

As for hear locally, it is going to be down right chilly and windy.  Some of the wind maps show 40+ MPH winds up in the mountains and 20+ here in the lower parts.

Lows in the metro area are going to be down around 34-35 and freezing up in the mountains.  

Its going to stay chilly and more fall like, but we might reach 70 by Saturday.


----------



## jcountry

Yep-

I misunderstood what you were getting at DDD.   This thing is going to be a mess!    A lot of storm surge in NY would be a nasty thing.  Those urbanites have no idea how helpless modern society becomes when stuff like this happens.   

Nasty times.


----------



## GA DAWG

I think its gonna snow here


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> I think its gonna snow here


----------



## Fro1911nut

James River Bridge


----------



## DDD

Fro1911nut said:


> James River Bridge



pretty normal water level... have to watch that camera shot for sure tomorrow


----------



## Crickett

My little girl has a friend from school that just moved back to New Jersey! They live on the coast! I'm praying that they evacuated! I don't know her mom so I have no way of finding out if they are safe! Saying some prayers for them tonight!


----------



## Jeff Raines

Got a cousin that lives in Parsons,West Virginia....Hopefully he will post pics on facebook.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

The local TV metro Atlanta weather news reported that the storm currently has tropical storm winds out to 1,000 miles wide or in diameter.  

Whatta beast of storm with a monster wind field.


----------



## lbzdually

Why doesn't NOAA or weather.com see a big snow out of this.  they are both showing heavy rain for Northern Virginia and West Virginia?  They are predicting lows in the high 30's.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

If what I gleaned from talking to my wifes cousin in NY is the status quo, those folks up there don't have a clue what they are in for.

Can't wait for the sun to rise to start seeing reports from there. NHC is waiting on the westward turn, they think the hurricane hunter has detected that but can't confirm it yet. Sandy is still 400 miles off shore, but they say she'll move pretty rapidly when she makes her westward turn.


----------



## jcountry

Weather channel just reported western movement.


----------



## Crickett

Why are all those people they just showed on TV think that this is just a bunch of hype??? Are they crazy?! They think the media is just blowing this way out! Just showed a family w/ 2 small kids that live in a flood area & they said they are not leaving! That is just STUPID!!!


----------



## WOODIE13

Spitting snow here right now, still under a blizzard warning, calling for @ least 2 feet here in WV, was snowing like crazy last night with some howling winds across 81 and 77, should be a fun one


----------



## Bitteroot

Hunker down Woodie!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crickett said:


> Why are all those people they just showed on TV think that this is just a bunch of hype??? Are they crazy?! They think the media is just blowing this way out! Just showed a family w/ 2 small kids that live in a flood area & they said they are not leaving! That is just STUPID!!!



They are Yankees, New York / New Jersey Yankees at that. They know it all, didn't you know that?


----------



## WOODIE13

Bitteroot said:


> Hunker down Woodie!!!


 
Will do, just wish duck season was in, sure bet they would be flying nice about now

Now it is snowing pretty good, got water saved up, all the bread and milk was bought out from the stores up here last night when we were coming back from the chili cook off, good thing I got some in NC .  

Did you see where the waves on the Great Lakes are going to push 25+ feet?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> Why doesn't NOAA or weather.com see a big snow out of this.  they are both showing heavy rain for Northern Virginia and West Virginia?  They are predicting lows in the high 30's.



Not sure where you're looking. Here's the NOAA advisory.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291149
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.* SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR
WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...
AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PROCESS.* SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485
MILES...780 KM.  SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...AND EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY. 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
MORNING.  WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE  MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

*SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND*.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here are the flood gauge monitor reports from New Jersey

View attachment 696008


----------



## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are Yankees, New York / New Jersey Yankees at that. They know it all, didn't you know that?





Now if the media down played this storm they would be blaming the media for not telling them how serious it is! The media is telling them how serious it is & they don't believe it! Yankees


----------



## Crickett

WOODIE13 said:


> Will do, just wish duck season was in, sure bet they would be flying nice about now
> 
> Now it is snowing pretty good, got water saved up, all the bread and milk was bought out from the stores up here last night when we were coming back from the chili cook off, good thing I got some in NC .
> 
> Did you see where the waves on the Great Lakes are going to push 25+ feet?



Pics?


----------



## WOODIE13

Will get some shortly, getting ready for work  now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

WOODIE13 said:


> Will get some shortly, getting ready for work  now.



Blizzard warnings for some counties in WV. You might as well just take a picture of a white wall...


----------



## WOODIE13

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Blizzard warnings for some counties in WV. You might as well just take a picture of a white wall...


 
It is not sticking right great right now, had some rain this morning, melted most of it, now the snow falling is not sticking, but starting to see some ice forming on the porch and the like, should get interesting as the day progresses.  Snow, no problem, I worry about the freezing rain and black ice, ecspecially with the wind chills out there, them Rebels cannot drive at all in it


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not sure where you're looking. Here's the NOAA advisory.
> 
> 000
> WTNT33 KNHC 291149
> TCPAT3
> 
> BULLETIN
> HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
> NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
> 800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
> 
> ...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...
> ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
> HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...
> 
> 
> SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
> ----------------------------------------------
> LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W
> ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
> ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
> PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
> 
> 
> WATCHES AND WARNINGS
> --------------------
> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
> 
> NONE.
> 
> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
> 
> A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
> * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
> * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
> * BERMUDA
> 
> IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
> THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
> THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
> THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
> OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
> AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.
> 
> TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
> MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
> SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
> ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
> 
> OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
> THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
> SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
> 
> FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
> STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
> MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
> FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
> THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
> METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
> 
> 
> DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
> ------------------------------
> AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
> NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING
> TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
> NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
> THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
> SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
> EVENING OR TONIGHT.
> 
> REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
> THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
> HIGHER GUSTS.* SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR
> WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
> TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...
> AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
> PROCESS.* SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.
> 
> HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
> THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485
> MILES...780 KM.  SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
> ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN
> VIRGINIA...AND EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
> CHESAPEAKE BAY.
> 
> THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
> AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
> 
> 
> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
> ----------------------
> WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
> OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
> CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
> TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
> COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
> MORNING.  WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
> STATES...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY.
> WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
> SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
> 
> STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
> AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
> FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
> DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
> TIDE...
> 
> NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
> SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
> UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
> LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
> ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
> CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
> BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
> CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
> MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
> 
> SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
> AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
> GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
> LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
> EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
> ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
> FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
> SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
> SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
> 
> RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
> NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
> POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
> PORTIONS OF THE  MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
> PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
> RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
> 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
> NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
> 
> *SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
> MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
> WEDNESDAY.  1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
> SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
> OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER
> AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND*.
> 
> SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
> NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



I went to NOAA.gov and typed in Toms brook, Va-rain only, sterling, Va rain only.


----------



## lbzdually

Why won't the NOAA forecast page say anything about snow?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Did you note my post stating "snow above 2500ft?" Not every city in WV is going to get massive amounts of snow, if any at all. 

FWIW, check this out.


----------



## DDD

lbzdually said:


> Why won't the NOAA forecast page say anything about snow?



Cause it's not gonna snow there?  That would just be my guess.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

That idiot Cantore' (aka weather drama queen) looks like a poorly designed super hero in his ridiculous kayak suit.
He's such a tool..


----------



## jcountry

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are Yankees, New York / New Jersey Yankees at that. They know it all, didn't you know that?



True Dat!

Those guys are completely helpless parasites.  They better be praying that the lights don't go out in Manhattan.  I can't think of a group of more helpless people if things get ugly and looting starts.


----------



## WOODIE13

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Did you note my post stating "snow above 2500ft?" Not every city in WV is going to get massive amounts of snow, if any at all.
> 
> FWIW, check this out.
> 
> View attachment 696024


 
He was talking about VA, not West "By God" Virginia


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That idiot Cantore' (aka weather drama queen) looks like a poorly designed super hero in his ridiculous kayak suit.
> He's such a tool..



LOL! I was watching that as well.


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Did you note my post stating "snow above 2500ft?" Not every city in WV is going to get massive amounts of snow, if any at all.
> 
> FWIW, check this out.
> 
> View attachment 696024



If you'll notice, the elevation of Morgantown and Buckhannon are the same, roughly 1250 ft.   I just don't trust NOAA that much with anything.  The Christmas snow we had almost 3 years ago was predicted as a dusting by NOAA, then at 8 am they revised it to 2-3 inches, then at 10 am when we had 3 inches, they said we would an additional 8 inches and we only got maybe 1-2 inches.  They can only seem to make an accurate forecast for about 1 hr out.


----------



## grizzlyblake

jcountry said:


> True Dat!
> 
> Those guys are completely helpless parasites.  They better be praying that the lights don't go out in Manhattan.  I can't think of a group of more helpless people if things get ugly and looting starts.



No kidding. The mass power outages that are predicted will create a very dangerous situation in such densely populated areas.


----------



## WOODIE13

lbzdually said:


> If you'll notice, the elevation of Morgantown and Buckhannon are the same, roughly 1250 ft. I just don't trust NOAA that much with anything. The Christmas snow we had almost 3 years ago was predicted as a dusting by NOAA, then at 8 am they revised it to 2-3 inches, then at 10 am when we had 3 inches, they said we would an additional 8 inches and we only got maybe 1-2 inches. They can only seem to make an accurate forecast for about 1 hr out.


 
Elevation where we live in WV is 1,736 feet, snowing pretty good here.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That idiot Cantore' (aka weather drama queen) looks like a poorly designed super hero in his ridiculous kayak suit.
> He's such a tool..


if cantore had a mullet/skullet it would add to the drama! hair all wavin around!!!


jcountry said:


> True Dat!
> 
> Those guys are completely helpless parasites.  They better be praying that the lights don't go out in Manhattan.  I can't think of a group of more helpless people if things get ugly and looting starts.



only one group more helpless and they got smashed by katrina


----------



## blood on the ground

WOODIE13 said:


> Elevation where we live in WV is 1,736 feet, snowing pretty good here.



post some pics


----------



## WOODIE13

blood on the ground said:


> post some pics


 
Will shortly, going out to get some fire wood right now and pick up a few things we need just in case.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> If you'll notice, the elevation of Morgantown and Buckhannon are the same, roughly 1250 ft.   I just don't trust NOAA that much with anything.  The Christmas snow we had almost 3 years ago was predicted as a dusting by NOAA, then at 8 am they revised it to 2-3 inches, then at 10 am when we had 3 inches, they said we would an additional 8 inches and we only got maybe 1-2 inches.  They can only seem to make an accurate forecast for about 1 hr out.



That is why you come here to get the information and don't worry about what NOAA has to say.


----------



## DDD

The V.P. of our department, his mom lives in rural Boston.  The power is out and it is howling there.  This is gonna get badddddd....


----------



## DDD

Sandy is still about 125 miles off shore.  This is downtown Atlantic City, NJ.  No gambling for a while.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

The definition of absolute dedication to duty.


----------



## Lukikus2

Ocean City Pier destroyed.

http://www.examiner.com/article/oce...stroyed-by-hurricane-sandy-confirmed-by-video

Atlantic City being flooded, Queens is flooding, West Virginia getting snow.

Going to be alot of helpless folks.


----------



## Lukikus2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The definition of absolute dedication to duty.
> 
> View attachment 696070


----------



## DDD

Wow... this is nuts.


----------



## Lukikus2

DDD said:


> Wow... this is nuts.



Another one for the history books. They always asked...What if a hurricane hit New York? 

And what a doosy.

They can't say they weren't warned. This is going to be BAD.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks like Atlantic City is going to be ground zero, and all points north of there are going to have a very long, bad afternoon and evening. Prayers for those folks.


----------



## savreds

I wonder how many will die because they didn't get out while they could?


----------



## DDD

Sandy is accelerating, they think she will hit the coast at 6 PM now really pushing the storm surge as she comes.


----------



## lbzdually

A crane just broke in Manhattan.  Hopefully it doesn't crash to the ground and kill anybody.


----------



## DDD

Yep.  One crane bent all up...


----------



## NCHillbilly

I can't believe how much wind we're getting this far away. We've got 25mph sustained winds with gusts in the 40s, supposed to keep on til Wednesday morning. Been snowing off and on all day here, too.


----------



## Keebs

NCHillbilly said:


> I can't believe how much wind we're getting this far away. We've got 25mph sustained winds with gusts in the 40s, supposed to keep on til Wednesday morning. Been snowing off and on all day here, too.


IT's windy as all get out down this way too!


----------



## Lukikus2

765,000 without power in 7 states. Most in New Jersey and New York.


----------



## DDD

Not sure where they are at, but they are supposed to say at 5pm tonight.


----------



## DDD

NCHillbilly said:


> I can't believe how much wind we're getting this far away. We've got 25mph sustained winds with gusts in the 40s, supposed to keep on til Wednesday morning. Been snowing off and on all day here, too.



The wind we are getting is mainly from the front that past over us.  The reason it's gotten stronger is Sandy is pressing on the front from the north and the wind has to go somewhere.

Check out this link.  If someone with html smarts can post it... have at it.

http://hint.fm/wind/


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> The wind we are getting is mainly from the front that past over us.  The reason it's gotten stronger is Sandy is pressing on the front from the north and the wind has to go somewhere.
> 
> Check out this link.  If someone with html smarts can post it... have at it.
> 
> http://hint.fm/wind/


That's a kewl map!


----------



## DDD

The ocean is supposed to be on the right and land is supposed to be on the left.  This is going into Atlantic City.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Not sure where they are at, but they are supposed to say at 5pm tonight.



Yancey County, NC.


----------



## WOODIE13

Pics from WV, just getting started now, just hope it last until Monday.


----------



## whitetaco02

I have family in Mass and Maine.  Hope they will be ok!!


----------



## crappiedex

Our EMC has a crew leaving in the morning going to West Virginia. Hoping for a safe return. 

Think I will send them that pic so they know what to look foward to.


----------



## WOODIE13

crappiedex said:


> Our EMC has a crew leaving in the morning going to West Virginia. Hoping for a safe return.
> 
> Think I will send them that pic so they know what to look foward to.


 
Tell them to embrace the suck, it will get interesting quick, wind is picking up, temps are dropping quick, and even though some lower areas are just wet, look for ice to form quick.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Wow, woodie13, those are some cold, chilly, cool looking photos.  

5 minutes ago the local metro Atlanta TV weather news reported 10 minutes 'til Sandy reaches landfall in Cape May, NJ which changes naming conventions from Hurricane to Noreaster.


----------



## WOODIE13

Yep, going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.  Over 1.5M without power now, like our wind storm we had up here this past summer, no power, 10 days.  It ended after 30 minutes, we got Sandy for 3 days.


----------



## NCHillbilly

It's pouring snow here. Most of my county above about 3,000' is white or up to a few inches now. Just barely starting to get white here at just under 3,000', 34 degrees and dropping, with nearly 30 mph wind. We still have some trees with leaves on them, especially oaks, this could be a mess. Calling for up to a foot or more in some areas of my county. Probably about 6" or so here from what they're saying. Gonna be a fun 40 mile commute tomorrow morning. High was 38* today. Supposed to be colder and windier tomorrow.


----------



## Crickett

WOODIE13 said:


> Pics from WV, just getting started now, just hope it last until Monday.



 Thanks for posting the pics! Y'all stay safe & warm!


----------



## WOODIE13

NCHillbilly said:


> It's pouring snow here. Most of my county above about 3,000' is white or up to a few inches now. Just barely starting to get white here at just under 3,000', 34 degrees and dropping, with nearly 30 mph wind. We still have some trees with leaves on them, especially oaks, this could be a mess. Calling for up to a foot or more in some areas of my county. Probably about 6" or so here from what they're saying. Gonna be a fun 40 mile commute tomorrow morning. High was 38* today. Supposed to be colder and windier tomorrow.


 
Same here, lot more wind, calling for 1-4 ft here, lots of moisture and cold coming from all directions, should get interesting.  Good luck, be safe.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> It's pouring snow here. Most of my county above about 3,000' is white or up to a few inches now. Just barely starting to get white here at just under 3,000', 34 degrees and dropping, with nearly 30 mph wind. We still have some trees with leaves on them, especially oaks, this could be a mess. Calling for up to a foot or more in some areas of my county. Probably about 6" or so here from what they're saying. Gonna be a fun 40 mile commute tomorrow morning. High was 38* today. Supposed to be colder and windier tomorrow.





WOODIE13 said:


> Same here, lot more wind, calling for 1-4 ft here, lots of moisture and cold coming from all directions, should get interesting.  Good luck, be safe.



Can either of you give a definition of a Snow Bomb now?


----------



## shadow2

Believe it or not it was spitting snow in parts of Lumpkin co today.


----------



## Fro1911nut

WOODIE13 said:


> Tell them to embrace the suck, it will get interesting quick, wind is picking up, temps are dropping quick, and even though some lower areas are just wet, look for ice to form quick.



What part of WV are you in?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shadow2 said:


> Believe it or not it was spitting snow in parts of Lumpkin co today.



I believe it. I bet it was spitting good up on Hawk Mtn. I bet the wind cutting through Puncheon Gap like a mad man.


----------



## whitetaco02

Evrybody who is getting snow please post as many pics as you can!


----------



## Lukikus2

YA'll be careful in that crap. Work ain't worth dying for. Lotta leaves on the trees and snow don't go well. This thing has a few days of making left over.

Oh yeh. They are shutting down the power in New York. Guess we will find out what New Yorker's state of mind is.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Lukikus2 said:


> YA'll be careful in that crap. Work ain't worth dying for. Lotta leaves on the trees and snow don't go well. This thing has a few days of making left over.
> 
> Oh yeh. They are shutting down the power in New York. Guess we will find out what New Yorker's state of mind is.


Only in Lower Manhattan.  Right across the river in Astoria they are fine. Texting constantly with my peeps feeding me ground truth.


----------



## shadow2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I believe it. I bet it was spitting good up on Hawk Mtn. I bet the wind cutting through Puncheon Gap like a mad man.



The tvd stayed under cloud cover all day.  It was never visible from work.


----------



## Lukikus2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Only in Lower Manhattan.  Right across the river in Astoria they are fine. Texting constantly with my peeps feeding me ground truth.



I'll be watching for updates.  

Prayer sent for all.


----------



## WOODIE13

Fro1911nut said:


> What part of WV are you in?


 
Fayette county


----------



## WOODIE13

whitetaco02 said:


> Evrybody who is getting snow please post as many pics as you can!


 
First thing in the morning, they just activated the WV Guard


----------



## Fro1911nut

WOODIE13 said:


> Fayette county




Putnam County when Im not stuck in GA 

I love how weather channel went to Snowshoe to report snow...wow guess thats why they put a ski resort there lol


----------



## WOODIE13

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Can either of you give a definition of a Snow Bomb now?


 
Ask Obama, it is his fault, happened on his watch

Seriously, remember back in the day it was snow from end of October to end of March, some freak snows in May, even June.  Global warming?  Time for a make up I guess


----------



## WOODIE13

Fro1911nut said:


> Putnam County when Im not stuck in GA
> 
> I love how weather channel went to Snowshoe to report snow...wow guess thats why they put a ski resort there lol


 
I hear you  Get up here, give me a push, do some hunting or fishing.  You like to duck or goose hunt?


----------



## Lukikus2

WOODIE13 said:


> Ask Obama, it is his fault, happened on his watch
> 
> Seriously, remember back in the day it was snow from end of October to end of March, some freak snows in May, even June.  Global warming?  Time for a make up I guess



All hype. It was on TV so I believe it. 

Have they started a chart of "rain off" flooding yet and those numbers?

BTW The weather channel dudes are really stressing Cantori out keeping him on air when he wanted to bail more than a few times. Anybody see that?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Lukikus2 said:


> All hype. It was on TV so I believe it.
> 
> Have they started a chart of "rain off" flooding yet and those numbers?
> 
> BTW The weather channel dudes are really stressing Cantori out keeping him on air when he wanted to bail more than a few times. Anybody see that?



He deserves it...


----------



## DDD

Here is a great link to a good many pictures.  The last one with the water in the elevator shaft looks like something out of a movie!

http://www.businessinsider.com/battery-park-flooding-2012-10?0=bi


----------



## WOODIE13

Lukikus2 said:


> All hype. It was on TV so I believe it.
> 
> Have they started a chart of "rain off" flooding yet and those numbers?
> 
> BTW The weather channel dudes are really stressing Cantori out keeping him on air when he wanted to bail more than a few times. Anybody see that?


 
I was being facetious, to a point, just to break the worries.


----------



## DDD

WOODIE13 said:


> Pics from WV, just getting started now, just hope it last until Monday.



Very Awesome!!!!  Gets me in the mood


----------



## Lukikus2

What is ya'lls real take on this? 90 mph wind in Iceland! Looks like another Nova Scotia to me.  Is the cold front going to push on out to the coast?


----------



## jonkayak

WOODIE13 said:


> Fayette county



I have some family in Peirce WV a few mile up the mountain from Canaan Velley. They are expecting a blizzard.  Also a bunch more family near Lancaster Pa. Lots of prayers being sent for all of you up north.


----------



## Lukikus2

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He deserves it...



Getting soft. They use to tell him to leave because the conditions were getting to bad. Now he is trying to tell them.


----------



## Fro1911nut

WOODIE13 said:


> I hear you  Get up here, give me a push, do some hunting or fishing.  You like to duck or goose hunt?



I will be up there hanging off a tree next week as long as Hurricane has power 


Ground truth for Tri State area of WV is still just rain


----------



## WOODIE13

Wind is definitely picked up here, may have to get my Kestrel out to see what it is right now


----------



## DDD

Glenn Burns just posted this picture from Jersey.

Shark in the street.  Just wow.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

DDD said:


> Glenn Burns just posted this picture from Jersey.
> 
> Shark in the street.  Just wow.









Now would be a good time to put the cat out . . .


----------



## lagrangedave

I would be eatng blackened shark steak about now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Glenn Burns just posted this picture from Jersey.
> 
> Shark in the street.  Just wow.



Glenn has been spammed by a hoax photo. Everyone knows that sharks in New Jersey have two legs, walk and carry tommy guns.


----------



## blood on the ground

Hooked On Quack said:


> Now would be a good time to put the cat out . . .


 you r a nut!!!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Glenn has been spammed by a hoax photo. Everyone knows that sharks in New Jersey have two legs, walk and carry tommy guns.



and you r 2  buncha idjits


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks like we'll be entering a period of fairly boring weather up til the middle of November (because that's as far out as the models go) With the exception of a shot at rain suppressing the temps around the 6th, everything else is pretty normal with temps hovering around the mid to high 60's very low 70's. 

Should be interesting to see if we get our traditional shot of arctic air and chance of a flurry around the last part of November.


----------



## blood on the ground

y'all are letting the fire go out.... stoke it up an get ta sending us some cold weather!


----------



## BrotherBadger

Currently 30 degrees(wind chill down to 20*), high in the 40s today, with the rest of the week reaching around 50. No snow in the 10 day forecast, but i wouldn't be shocked to get a little on friday morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BrotherBadger said:


> Currently 30 degrees(wind chill down to 20*), high in the 40s today, with the rest of the week reaching around 50. No snow in the 10 day forecast, but i wouldn't be shocked to get a little on friday morning.



Actually Friday night is when the snow chances go up for a few days.


----------



## Shane Dockery

BrotherBadger said:


> Currently 30 degrees(wind chill down to 20*), high in the 40s today, with the rest of the week reaching around 50. No snow in the 10 day forecast, but i wouldn't be shocked to get a little on friday morning.



A little snow on Sunday would be great for the Pack!  Bring on Arizona!


----------



## NCHillbilly

We wound up getting 3-4" at my place yesterday, there was a place or two in the county that had over a foot, two feet in one spot. Not bad for October.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

NCHillbilly said:


> We wound up getting 3-4" at my place yesterday, there was a place or two in the county that had over a foot, two feet in one spot. Not bad for October.



Pics or it didn't happen.


----------



## todd03blown

I hear the weather folks are talking about another good size storm that might hit the east coast in 6-7 days...some folks on twitter I follow we're mentioning this...Any truth Miguel/DDD?


----------



## Bitteroot

todd03blown said:


> I hear the weather folks are talking about another good size storm that might hit the east coast in 6-7 days...some folks on twitter I follow we're mentioning this...Any truth Miguel/DDD?




askin a messikin about winter weather.....


----------



## WOODIE13

All is well here, power came back on at 1 today, now to deal with some freezing rain tonight.  Snow pushed @ 2 ft here, @ 3 ft over at my parents.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> I hear the weather folks are talking about another good size storm that might hit the east coast in 6-7 days...some folks on twitter I follow we're mentioning this...Any truth Miguel/DDD?



Not near as powerful a low, and the flaw in the models is the steering mechanisms aren't in place to really bring this low into the coast like they were for Sandy. It'll change over the next few runs.



Bitteroot said:


> askin a messikin about winter weather.....



Shush it closet Techie..


----------



## blood on the ground

a cool 40f on the hill in north paulding this mornin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Good life span animation of Sandy on this FB link, if you have FB.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=423101797756742


----------



## StriperAddict

Statement as of *4:02 AM EDT on November 02, 2012* 
<!-- style="width: 410px; margin: 0 auto;"  -->
... Fire Danger Statement... 

... High fire danger conditions this afternoon for a large portion of 
north and central Georgia due to winds and some low relative 
humidities... 

Sustained winds of around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph can be
expected for a period this afternoon. Most relative humidities
will likely stay above 25 percent except for the area east and
south of Macon will see low relative humidities in the 18 to 25
percent range.

With dry fuels... high fire danger conditions can be expected.

Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities concerning
whether you may burn outdoors. If you do burn outside... use extreme
caution.


----------



## blood on the ground

38 on the hill in n paulding this morning.


----------



## DDD

Good right up for you weather nerds on the upcoming NorEaster that will sock the NE.... Again.



> The Players are all on the field for another big East Coast storm, affecting exactly the same areas from VA to New York that took a big hit from Sandy. 1) In Eastern Canada is a slow moving vortex which will affect the other 2 waves upstream from it. 2) In the Southeast, a strong upper wave begins to tilt negative off the SC coast Tuesday. 3) Strong energetic upper energy will feed or "phase in" to the wave along the Carolina Coast, nearly bombing out a strong surface low that becomes a strong cutoff gale or Nor'easter. This will whip lash rain back inland for NC, Va, Md, De, Pa, NJ, and NY by mid week, and if moisture gets far enough inland, some areas could turn to snow, especially higher elevations of MD, Pa and NY, possibly a period of wet snow in northern VA late Wednesday PM/Thursday AM. Most of New England should get rain thanks to strong onshore flow and a stacked 5H system (Maine, NH, Mass, RI, CT)


----------



## JCASH

Any outlook for a wetter weather pattern here ?


----------



## DDD

JCASH said:


> Any outlook for a wetter weather pattern here ?



It's gonna be wet tomorrow... as for a pattern?  I don't think so.  I will go look down the road and get back to ya...


----------



## GA DAWG

Feels like snow out here to me.


----------



## Resica

Just might be. For me.


----------



## blood on the ground

rain and 49 on the hill in north paulding


----------



## Patriot44

It is sleeting something awful here in Paulding.  I guess it's sleet?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Yep, that is sleet. Obama was re-elected and hades has frozen over.


----------



## DDD

Yep.  I got the alert at lunch that sleet could mix in as far south as Cobb - Fulton - Gwinnett.

Ground is too warm for any accumulation.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, that is sleet. Obama was re-elected and hades has frozen over.



Thats what I told my wife


----------



## Resica

Starting to snow a little here.


----------



## DDD

Frost warning for all of North GA tonight.


----------



## Nicodemus

DDD said:


> Frost warning for all of North GA tonight.




Send some down here. I got greens that need a frost on em and want some cold weather.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, that is sleet. Obama was re-elected and hades has frozen over.


----------



## savreds

It's only the first part of November and we've already got two named winter storms, we're doomed I tell ya, doomed!!!    




Dang Global warm...........er Man Made Climate Change!!!


----------



## Keebs

savreds said:


> It's only the first part of November and we've already got two named winter storms, we're doomed I tell ya, doomed!!!
> Dang Global warm...........er Man Made Climate Change!!!









 it's ok, calm down..............


----------



## huntinglady74

Can i please have some snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## DDD

huntinglady74 said:


> Can i please have some snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Yes.

Don't have a lot of time to type today... maybe sometime this weekend, but just know this:

BEST. CHANCE. FOR. S. GA SNOW. IN 10 YEARS. THIS WINTER.

Book it.


----------



## huntinglady74

DDD said:


> Yes.
> 
> Don't have a lot of time to type today... maybe sometime this weekend, but just know this.
> 
> BEST. CHANCE. FOR. S. GA SNOW. IN 10 YEARS. THIS WINTER.
> 
> Book it.



Works for me.. I'm in West Central so i will take all ya'll wanna give......My 2 yr old is old enough now to enjoy it...lol


----------



## DDD

This winter is starting to look like money.

It has started out right, combine the north Atlantic oscillation, blocking forecast up in Canada, Sun spots and solar activity... this winter "SHOULD" be the complete opposite of last winter.


Hopefully we can crash the server again.  That was so much fun 2 years ago!


----------



## gacowboy

DDD said:


> This winter is starting to look like money.
> 
> It has started out right, combine the north Atlantic oscillation, blocking forecast up in Canada, Sun spots and solar activity... this winter "SHOULD" be the complete opposite of last winter.
> 
> 
> Hopefully we can crash the server again.  That was so much fun 2 years ago!



YEAH !!!! Sound good to me !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Typically we always get a good cold snap with maybe a flurry floating around in the air around Thanksgiving. 

This year doesn't appear out of the norm. Although this is a little over two weeks out, I'll take it.


----------



## greg_n_clayton

I guess this means I need to keep cuttin' fire wood !! Any help would be appreciated !! And the veiws and time on the mountain is wonderful !! I also know where there is  a stump hole or two with some antifreeze in 'em !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

greg_n_clayton said:


> I guess this means I need to keep cuttin' fire wood !! Any help would be appreciated !! And the veiws and time on the mountain is wonderful !!



Are there any leaves left?


----------



## greg_n_clayton

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Are there any leaves left?



Not many !! Thank goodness !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

greg_n_clayton said:


> Not many !! Thank goodness !!



Then you're on your own. I only come up there to clog the roads and stare at pretty colored leaves.


----------



## greg_n_clayton

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Then you're on your own. I only come up there to clog the roads and stare at pretty colored leaves.



After a few trips to the stump hole.....everything will be purty !!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks like this coming Tuesday is going to be a near repeat of this past Tuesday. Drizzly cold raining type day. I like it when we settle into a regular pattern of moisture being chased by cold air. Makes potential for other things go up as the air masses running south get colder and colder.


----------



## lbzdually

I've got to get my generator trailer fixed and my gas tank filled up.  Got a 5500 watt Onan with 27 gallon tank that came out of my enclosed trailer.  Thinking about getting another 6500 watt diesel so we can run the whole house.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> I've got to get my generator trailer fixed and my gas tank filled up.  Got a 5500 watt Onan with 27 gallon tank that came out of my enclosed trailer.  Thinking about getting another 6500 watt diesel so we can run the whole house.



Might come in handy during a good ice storm.


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Might come in handy during a good ice storm.



Yes sir, i've been silently follwing this thread and ice is what is flashing in my head.  During the last big snow, we never lost power as it was just light fluffy snow.  I know what ice can do and I will not drive unless it is life or death.  During the icestorm that shut Atlanta down, I was coming home and got stuck in Cartersville on the interstate.  I was on the South Dalton bypass and almost spun out.  I was pulling a 16 ft enclosed trailer and got almost 90* to where I was wanting to go as I drove across a bridge.  When I hit the road, it was just wet and my truck snapped back into place.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> Yes sir, i've been silently follwing this thread and ice is what is flashing in my head.  During the last big snow, we never lost power as it was just light fluffy snow.  I know what ice can do and I will not drive unless it is life or death.  During the icestorm that shut Atlanta down, I was coming home and got stuck in Cartersville on the interstate.  I was on the South Dalton bypass and almost spun out.  I was pulling a 16 ft enclosed trailer and got almost 90* to where I was wanting to go as I drove across a bridge.  When I hit the road, it was just wet and my truck snapped back into place.



That kind of experience will shorten your fruit of the looms real quick like.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That kind of experience will shorten your fruit of the looms real quick like.



And shorten the useful life of them!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

Where Da snow at? Im waiting on it.


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That kind of experience will shorten your fruit of the looms real quick like.



Not to mention the two other times when I felt the truck start to drift at 35 mph on I-75.  Scary feeling having no control and no one around to help if you crash.  There were cars all over in ditches and in the median spun out and I only had a few cars pass me, one of which ended up spinning out after they passed.  Made it home safe and sound, only to step out of my truck and bust my tail on my icy driveway.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> Not to mention the two other times when I felt the truck start to drift at 35 mph on I-75.  Scary feeling having no control and no one around to help if you crash.  There were cars all over in ditches and in the median spun out and I only had a few cars pass me, one of which ended up spinning out after they passed.  Made it home safe and sound, only to step out of my truck and bust my tail on my icy driveway.


----------



## shakey gizzard

DDD said:


> This winter is starting to look like money.
> 
> It has started out right, combine the north Atlantic oscillation, blocking forecast up in Canada, Sun spots and solar activity... this winter "SHOULD" be the complete opposite of last winter.
> 
> 
> Hopefully we can crash the server again.  That was so much fun 2 years ago!



I'm in!


----------



## Wade Chandler

Where's the update DDD promised us this weekend? The natives are restless


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> This winter is starting to look like money.
> 
> It has started out right, combine the north Atlantic oscillation, blocking forecast up in Canada, Sun spots and solar activity... this winter "SHOULD" be the complete opposite of last winter.
> 
> 
> Hopefully we can crash the server again.  That was so much fun 2 years ago!


Just came into some extra cash, and I'm shopping for a generator!!...........Finally have the money to do this!!......Been on my wish list for a while now!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> Where's the update DDD promised us this weekend? The natives are restless



He's starting to act like Obama isn't he?


----------



## DDD

Wade Chandler said:


> Where's the update DDD promised us this weekend? The natives are restless



I blocked you and Miguel from seeing it!  


I have bad and good news.  


Good news is this:  I start a new job in 2 weeks that will allow me to be 15 miles from home and a whole ton of benefits that I will not go into.  It is a promotion for me, but getting 2 hours of my life back everyday is a HUGE bonus.  Not to mention the job and company are freaking FANTASTIC! 


Bad news:  Not going to be doing weather updates except from my phone when it's really news worthy during the week.  I will do them on the weekends but daily and hourly updates like before will be off now.  (I actually have to work now... LOL!!!!  )


I was fishing from Friday - Sunday so I will try and get that update posted this week.


----------



## Keebs

DDD said:


> I blocked you and Miguel from seeing it!
> 
> 
> I have bad and good news.
> 
> 
> Good news is this:  I start a new job in 2 weeks that will allow me to be 15 miles from home and a whole ton of benefits that I will not go into.  It is a promotion for me, but getting 2 hours of my life back everyday is a HUGE bonus.  Not to mention the job and company are freaking FANTASTIC!
> 
> 
> Bad news:  Not going to be doing weather updates except from my phone when it's really news worthy during the week.  I will do them on the weekends but daily and hourly updates like before will be off now.  (I actually have to work now... LOL!!!!  )
> 
> 
> I was fishing from Friday - Sunday so I will try and get that update posted this week.


 Congrats TripleD!


----------



## 3ringer

If I lose power,  all I need is a Coleman stove and my old trusty perculator. There's nothing like camping indoors.


----------



## lbzdually

RUTTNBUCK said:


> Just came into some extra cash, and I'm shopping for a generator!!...........Finally have the money to do this!!......Been on my wish list for a while now!!



Do you have any diesel cars or tractors?  If so, Northern tool has a diesel generator for around $1200.  http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_200360138_200360138  Diesel is way more fuel efficient and if you have diesel on hand for other stuff, it makes sense even more.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> Do you have any diesel cars or tractors?  If so, Northern tool has a diesel generator for around $1200.  http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_200360138_200360138  Diesel is way more fuel efficient and if you have diesel on hand for other stuff, it makes sense even more.



Plus you can run red fuel in a generator.


----------



## StriperAddict

Keebs said:


> Congrats TripleD!


 
X2. I know what it's like to have a job change to get that extra home time.


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Plus you can run red fuel in a generator.



Yep.  If you'll go to the questions section for the diesel generator I posted the link to, one of the customers asks if they can run off-road diesel in their generator and the CS rep from Northern Tool says no.    Off road diesel should actually be better if it is low sulphur diesel, vs ulsd, since lsd has better lubrication properties.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He's starting to act like Obama isn't he?


 
LOL!  Them's fightin words there, but he might deserve it 
Comes back talking about a new job, but then telling his faithful followers that he isn't going to be able to do updates except on the weekends, but then says he was fishing all weekend. . . and no update!
All joking aside, congrats on the new job DDD.  I've been looking for something new for the last 8 months and have only been able to get one interview, so you're doing something right!  Keep up the good work and we'll look forward to updates, but won't complain about not getting them as frequently


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> I blocked you and Miguel from seeing it!
> 
> 
> I have bad and good news.
> 
> 
> Good news is this:  I start a new job in 2 weeks that will allow me to be 15 miles from home and a whole ton of benefits that I will not go into.  It is a promotion for me, but getting 2 hours of my life back everyday is a HUGE bonus.  Not to mention the job and company are freaking FANTASTIC!
> 
> 
> Bad news:  Not going to be doing weather updates except from my phone when it's really news worthy during the week.  I will do them on the weekends but daily and hourly updates like before will be off now.  (I actually have to work now... LOL!!!!  )
> 
> 
> I was fishing from Friday - Sunday so I will try and get that update posted this week.



That is great news!

The really, really bad news is we are going to have to rely on Hugh in your absence. He better brush up on winter stuff ricky tick.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> That is great news!
> 
> The really, really bad news is we are going to have to rely on Hugh in your absence. He better brush up on winter stuff ricky tick.



Nothing but cold air coming down the pipe this month. 

How's that?


----------



## Patriot44

elfiii said:


> That is great news!
> 
> The really, really bad news is we are going to have to rely on Hugh in your absence. He better brush up on winter stuff ricky tick.



We are screwed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Patriot44 said:


> We are screwed.



I thought I had deleted that from my youtube account..


----------



## crappiedex

It sonny toda

It sonny tamaraw


----------



## gacowboy

Patriot44 said:


> We are screwed.



Too Funny !!! 

DDD congrats on the new job !! We will look forward to your reports as you have time !!!

Cold air coming down from the North .....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gacowboy said:


> Cold air coming down from the North .....



Yes, that is where cold air comes from.


----------



## BrotherBadger

GA DAWG said:


> Where Da snow at? Im waiting on it.



Started snowing here this evening(trace amounts). Currently 24* with a wind chill of 17*. Luckily it is supposed to bounce back into the 40s once the sun comes up. Still, doesn't do me much good working nights.


----------



## blood on the ground

elfiii said:


> That is great news!
> 
> The really, really bad news is we are going to have to rely on Hugh in your absence. He better brush up on winter stuff ricky tick.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nothing but cold air coming down the pipe this month.
> 
> How's that?





Patriot44 said:


> We are screwed.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, that is where cold air comes from.



y'all make me laugh all the time.... thank you


----------



## DDD

So here is my winter weather outlook:

There is a lot of warm water up around Greenland.  This is super key because the warm water creates a "block" if you will... up around Greenland.  Cold air trying to slide over from Canada gets blocked and sent south.

Now add in the Alaskan blocking.  We did not have this last year.  The Alaskan block is usually a given most winters.  High pressure sets up over Alaska and the cold air rides over the top of it and spills south through Canada.   Add in the Greenland block and you see it has no where to go but south.  

Unless we have HPS that sets up out in the Atlantic (CAD or Tommy Wedge) then we get cold air off of the Atlantic and cold air is allowed to spill south and gets trapped between the HPS out in the Atlantic and the Appalachian Mountains.  Which is usually the set up we get for ice storms.  (The Mexican thinks we are due and I can not argue with that)

So we have this whole set up... great.  What do we need to make the snow fly?  

We need the North Atlantic Oscillation to go very negative.  This is what happened two years ago and like music to my ears, it is progged to be negative... very negative this winter.  

Also, all signs point to a split jet stream.  This is super key for bringing Low Pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Combine the cold air being blocked and sent south out of Canada, a negative NAO and split jet streams?  

MONEY.  

(The split jet is key to South GA getting snow to fly as well.  It is one of those cases where South GA could see the snow and N. GA not see the snow.  It just depends on how far south the cold air will spill out of Canada.)

Could not draw it up any better.  Now all we need is mother nature to execute my devious plan and it is snow days for the kids!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Now all we need is mother nature to execute my devious plan and it is snow days for the kids!



Asking for cooperation from a woman. As someone said before, we are screwed..


----------



## NCHillbilly

Meh. Snow just sucks after you have it every day for about two or three months.


----------



## Bitteroot

NCHillbilly said:


> Meh. Snow just sucks after you have it every day for about two or three months.



I'd like to try it .........


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Asking for cooperation from a woman. As someone said before, we are screwed..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Tease photo of the day.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tease photo of the day.
> 
> View attachment 698907



Ohhhh... I could do a major league face-plant in that!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Ohhhh... I could do a major league face-plant in that!!!



That only happens to me on a 30 minute black diamond mogul run when my knees finally turn to spaghetti. I've gotten to ski ungroomed first run virgin powder like this four times in my life and it is the closest to skiing on clouds you'll ever come. Awesome experience that stays vividly ingrained in your memory.


----------



## todd03blown

I see other local weather personalities are talking about another east coast storm next week. Said it could get down right cold in N ga. for thanksgiving. Thoughts on this?

Thanks DDD for your weather outlook. I will be investing in a generator this year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Typically we always get a good cold snap with maybe a flurry floating around in the air around Thanksgiving.
> 
> This year doesn't appear out of the norm. Although this is a little over two weeks out, I'll take it.
> 
> View attachment 697933





todd03blown said:


> I see other local weather personalities are talking about another east coast storm next week. Said it could get down right cold in N ga. for thanksgiving. Thoughts on this?
> 
> Thanks DDD for your weather outlook. I will be investing in a generator this year.


----------



## savreds

I've never skied much powder but I do like the steep stuff. Steep enough that you have to do jump turns... skied the big bowl on the backside of Copper Mountain one time, it was AWESOME. Steep, ungroomed with hugh mounds to dodge, I think it was a double black diamond.    
 I never did like the moguls or maybe I should say my knees didn't! I didn't learn to snow ski until after my second knee surgery which was ACL replacement. I'm paying dearley for all of that stuff now!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> I've never skied much powder but I do like the steep stuff. Steep enough that you have to do jump turns... skied the big bowl on the backside of Copper Mountain one time, it was AWESOME. Steep, ungroomed with hugh mounds to dodge, I think it was a double black diamond.
> I never did like the moguls or maybe I should say my knees didn't! I didn't learn to snow ski until after my second knee surgery which was ACL replacement. I'm paying dearley for all of that stuff now!



Me and a buddy were the first in the back bowls of Vail one morning after a good dumping of powder. We started out down a mogul run which ended where a maintenance road crossed the slope and then is was a flat out tuck and run to the bottom from there. The road bed made for a great jump. I went first and got about 50 or so feet below the jump to turn around and watch him hit it. He had a lot of speed going out of the last moguls and when he hit the lip he poled hard for a good launch. Problem is, he accidentally planted his right pole on the inside of his right ski. This powder was beyond knee deep and when physics caught up with his mistake catapulting him keester over kettle it looked like a giant snow explosion with arms legs and ski's all going in different directions. Fortunately, powder is very forgiving when your ski's aren't the first thing to hit when landing... It was one of the coolest wipeouts I've ever witnessed. Took him a long time to get all of the snow out of all of the places that it normally doesn't go.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


>



Excellent


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Horses - I AM A POTTY MOUTH -- I AM A POTTY MOUTH -- I AM A POTTY MOUTH -!


----------



## DDD

shakey gizzard said:


> Horses - I AM A POTTY MOUTH -- I AM A POTTY MOUTH -- I AM A POTTY MOUTH -!


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Me and a buddy were the first in the back bowls of Vail one morning after a good dumping of powder. We started out down a mogul run which ended where a maintenance road crossed the slope and then is was a flat out tuck and run to the bottom from there. The road bed made for a great jump. I went first and got about 50 or so feet below the jump to turn around and watch him hit it. He had a lot of speed going out of the last moguls and when he hit the lip he poled hard for a good launch. Problem is, he accidentally planted his right pole on the inside of his right ski. This powder was beyond knee deep and when physics caught up with his mistake catapulting him keester over kettle it looked like a giant snow explosion with arms legs and ski's all going in different directions. Fortunately, powder is very forgiving when your ski's aren't the first thing to hit when landing... It was one of the coolest wipeouts I've ever witnessed. Took him a long time to get all of the snow out of all of the places that it normally doesn't go.



Finding lost skiis in deep powder can be "frustrating"!!!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Sorry! Wrong thread!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Finding lost skiis in deep powder can be "frustrating"!!!



Not when said victim of a wipeout buries up head first and the ski's are flailing wildly in the air, still attached to his legs..


----------



## mrs. hornet22

OK, it this thread about weather or skiing
I love snow skiing. Haven't been in years.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> OK, it this thread about weather or skiing
> I love snow skiing. Haven't been in years.



I used to go to Colorado skiing every year. It's been 7 years since I've been now.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I used to go to Colorado skiing every year. It's been 7 years since I've been now.



Know the feeling. Been bout that long for me too.
My bibs do come in handy when it snows though.


----------



## DDD

Rain is inbound and its a gonna be a chilly one...


----------



## Matt.M

Headed to Breckenridge over Christmas.  Excited to get the 4 year old into ski school and on the mountain.  And then to Peak 8 with Dad.  

Any idea are the snowfall the Rockies might receive before Christmas?


----------



## david w.

DDD said:


> Rain is inbound and its a gonna be a chilly one...



Love me some rainy cold weather.


----------



## Bitteroot

DDD said:


> Rain is inbound and its a gonna be a chilly one...



And I can't go hunt this evening... I gotta pick that dang old bluegrass tonight.....


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I used to go to Colorado skiing every year. It's been 7 years since I've been now.





mrs. hornet22 said:


> Know the feeling. Been bout that long for me too.
> My bibs do come in handy when it snows though.



i just wish i could make my first trip out there! Alabama is as far west as i have ever been! 
i here that once you go out there it is hard to come home.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> i just wish i could make my first trip out there! Alabama is as far west as i have ever been!
> i here that once you go out there it is hard to come home.



Never ever wanted to come home from there. Had the opportunity to join the ski patrol our there a 19 years old. Been kicking myself for not taking that opportunity ever since...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

HEY NCHILLBILLY!!! 

Just how far west in NC are you?

Remember that freezing rain stuff I was talking about at the beginning of this thread?

http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/8063722


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Never ever wanted to come home from there. Had the opportunity to join the ski patrol our there a 19 years old. Been kicking myself for not taking that opportunity ever since...



I would have definitley been a ski bum if I would have learned to snow ski at that age. I could have seen myself living in a very small cabin  and working at a resort somewhere. 
That's a long way from putting two sons thru private school and another thru UGA!!! Now I'm too tuition poor to be able to take them out west for a week of skiing!


----------



## savreds

On a side note... those idjits at The Weather Channel have sure been pushing the global warming/ man-made climate change the last two weeks.
I can't even enjoy looking at the weather girls without hearing that stuff!


----------



## Wade Chandler

We just missed the frozen stuff this morning. Low was 33.9 with drizzle.


----------



## blood on the ground

me going on a lil jog back in the winter of 2010. just thought i would share!


----------



## humdandy

blood on the ground said:


> me going on a lil jog back in the winter of 2010. just thought i would share!



You look nice and warm, how old is the baby?


----------



## blood on the ground

humdandy said:


> You look nice and warm, how old is the baby?



 idjit


----------



## humdandy

blood on the ground said:


> idjit


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> On a side note... those idjits at The Weather Channel have sure been pushing the global warming/ man-made climate change the last two weeks.
> I can't even enjoy looking at the weather girls without hearing that stuff!



They are not a weather information channel. The are a Weather Entertainment / Drama channel. The primary reason I choose to get my own information from the model maps and not those idiots.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

The revised winter weather forecast from the NWS is in. Average temps and slightly above average moisture. Boring!!!!

Next week will be very average, could be another bummer of a winter..


----------



## david w.

Don't say that messican.I want some snow.Guess i'll have to head north this Christmas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

david w. said:


> Don't say that messican.I want some snow.Guess i'll have to head north this Christmas.


According to the long range forecast in the Farmers Almanac, Atlanta is in for freezing rain and sleet between the 29th and 31st of December.

It is also showing below normal temps for January and well below normal temps for February, but also well below normal precipitation for those two months as well.

We'll see.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> According to the long range forecast in the Farmers Almanac, Atlanta is in for freezing rain and sleet between the 29th and 31st of December.
> 
> It is also showing below normal temps for January and well below normal temps for February, but also well below normal precipitation for those two months as well.
> 
> We'll see.



I don't give two hoots about the above map.  It's coming.  Book it.


----------



## zworley3

DDD said:


> I don't give two hoots about the above map.  It's coming.  Book it.




I am going to hold you to this... I am looking for some 1993 action....


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> I don't give two hoots about the above map.  It's coming.  Book it.


That's what I like to see and hear!!!


----------



## shakey gizzard

We're do!


----------



## Robbie101

Hey Messican, do you think accuweather has the temps rite fur next week down south. Gonna get to hunt hopefully fur the first time either Thursday or Friday and it looks like it could be a little warm down around Leesburg.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> Hey Messican, do you think accuweather has the temps rite fur next week down south. Gonna get to hunt hopefully fur the first time either Thursday or Friday and it looks like it could be a little warm down around Leesburg.



Yep, unless something weird happens it's gonna warm up here pretty soon.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are not a weather information channel. The are a Weather Entertainment / Drama channel. The primary reason I choose to get my own information from the model maps and not those idiots.



Entertainment is the only reson I watch it. A couple of them weather chicks is pretty hawt!
And if a storm is approaching I've got to turn it on to see that drama queen Cantore leaning into a 10mph breeze like is going to blow him down while some kid is pedaling his spyder bike along behind him!  
I wonder just how long it's going to be before one of them is either killed or maimed for life standing out in one of those hurricanes?


----------



## gobbleinwoods

savreds said:


> Entertainment is the only reson I watch it. A couple of them weather chicks is pretty hawt!



A couple posts back someone said they even talk.  I'll have to turn the mute button off one of these mornings.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> A couple posts back someone said they even talk.  I'll have to turn the mute button off one of these mornings.



If looking at weather girls is all you want then watch the Latino channel (what they say isn't important anyway) There's not a Weather Channel girl on staff that holds a candle to Jackie Guerrido


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If looking at weather girls is all you want then watch the Latino channel (what they say isn't important anyway) There's not a Weather Channel girl on staff that holds a candle to Jackie Guerrido
> 
> View attachment 699256



Hmmm... I might have to check her out sometime. I like to turn it on right before I leave for work in the morning to see what Stephanie is wearing.
 I'm glad they got rid of that Alexandra chick a while back. She was ok when she first started but then just got really annoying toward the end.
They'd better not get rid of Kim, she's one of my favorites!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> HEY NCHILLBILLY!!!
> 
> Just how far west in NC are you?
> 
> Remember that freezing rain stuff I was talking about at the beginning of this thread?
> 
> http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/8063722



I'm more westerer than that, just to the left of the little humpity-doo that sticks up on the border. Actually, about 15 more miles north and I would be TN Hillbilly.   It was freeze enough here yesterday morning, just wasn't rain enough.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If looking at weather girls is all you want then watch the Latino channel (what they say isn't important anyway) There's not a Weather Channel girl on staff that holds a candle to Jackie Guerrido
> 
> View attachment 699256



Smoking hot!!!


----------



## jcountry

DDD said:


> I don't give two hoots about the above map.  It's coming.  Book it.



I have heard that the earlier pecans fall, the colder the winter will be.

(And we got pecans in Sept.  That has never happened around here before.)


----------



## todd03blown

Looks like it won't be cold/chilly for Thanksgiving...Looks like the cold will come after?


----------



## panfried0419

I don't see this record winter yet. I did yard work in shorts and flip flops yesterday in the hills. Hope old man winter hurries and gets here.


----------



## shakey gizzard

1st freeze for saturday up here!


----------



## savreds

Up until the last 3 or 4 days we have been averaging about 10 degree's BELOW normal for this time of the year. I hope that's a good sign and that DDD's prognosticatin'  comes true!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Up until the last 3 or 4 days we have been averaging about 10 degree's BELOW normal for this time of the year. I hope that's a good sign and that DDD's prognosticatin'  comes true!



As opposed to a prognosis..

Major sunspot dead center on the sun facing us developed over the last couple of days, facing earth. Been getting alerts to M-class flares it has been ejecting. Hopefully this will be the type of activity (like we say two years ago) that will alter this trend of warmer weather and drop our temps again. We should know in about a week or so.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes




----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As opposed to a prognosis..
> 
> Major sunspot dead center on the sun facing us developed over the last couple of days, facing earth. Been getting alerts to M-class flares it has been ejecting. Hopefully this will be the type of activity (like we say two years ago) that will alter this trend of warmer weather and drop our temps again. We should know in about a week or so.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


>



Yeah, not quite a repeat just yet though.

Here's the map that BigOx posted up on Nov. 22nd 2010 that was the beginning of a rockin good winter.



The same map today is not quite so promising for the same date in December.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Long shot fantasy land model show's NW Ga getting a shot at a flurry or so around 12/7


----------



## shakey gizzard

Will it rain IMBY on tuesday!


----------



## NCHillbilly

17* here this morning.


----------



## UBER-DIESEL

When the heck is the cold temps gonna show up and stay for awhile? I'm ready for the 20's, not the 70's!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Will it rain IMBY on tuesday!



Well? Did it?



NCHillbilly said:


> 17* here this morning.



No more skeeters for a while for you.



UBER-DIESEL said:


> When the heck is the cold temps gonna show up and stay for awhile? I'm ready for the 20's, not the 70's!!!



You need to move north. You are dreaming.


----------



## Wade Chandler

On that last map you posted Miguel, it looks like Canada is getting some good snow pack.  Any chance of that translating to some cold shots towards January and February?
I'm missing DDD and his always optimistic updates.  Miguel is too pessimistic (even if it is realistic).


----------



## blood on the ground

Wade Chandler said:


> On that last map you posted Miguel, it looks like Canada is getting some good snow pack.  Any chance of that translating to some cold shots towards January and February?
> I'm missing DDD and his always optimistic updates.  Miguel is too pessimistic (even if it is realistic).



uh oh.... you did it now! voodoo for you, not just any ol voodoo (messican voodoo)


----------



## mrs. hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> uh oh.... you did it now! voodoo for you, not just any ol voodoo (messican voodoo)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> On that last map you posted Miguel, it looks like Canada is getting some good snow pack.  Any chance of that translating to some cold shots towards January and February?
> I'm missing DDD and his always optimistic updates.  Miguel is too pessimistic (even if it is realistic).



You'll have to wait on DDD (Droptine Deer Dropper) to find out about the long range (fantasy land) forecast. I only relay what I'm seeing as far out as the models go. Even those change from model run to model run this time of year. 

A week ago a HPS down over northern Fl. was going to be blocking our chances for hinky stuff, then we got some CME Solar activity and it eased off. Now we have a massive sunspot that just appeared out of nowhere yesterday and is prime to eject some serious plasma. If it will just go ahead and happen I feel like we should get that good Negative NAO necessary for a colder trend of air along with some better than lately chances at moisture to accompany it. But you know what they say,


----------



## Wade Chandler

I know severe weather is more your thing.  Honestly, the thread was getting kinda slow, so I felt like seeing if I could get something going.
I've got my fingers crossed for some moisture if nothing else.  I'm gonna try not to be too picky.


----------



## Resica

Snowed up here most of the day.Picked up about 3.5/4 inches of heavy wet snow.


----------



## Nitram4891

It was 25 here this morning in Michigan.  I'm ready to get back to GA.


----------



## DDD

Ya'll miss me yet?

If you go read a lot of the blogs in the state of GA and the southeast they all are on the its gonna snow train.

I am not going to say its a lock, but all of the right players are going to be on the field, the question is... will we score?

The weather is going to be nice this weekend... enjoy it!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well? Did it?
> 
> 
> 
> No more skeeters for a while for you.
> 
> 
> 
> You need to move north. You are dreaming.



Sprinkles!


----------



## blood on the ground

Resica said:


> Snowed up here most of the day.Picked up about 3.5/4 inches of heavy wet snow.


why do you torture us?


DDD said:


> Ya'll miss me yet?
> 
> If you go read a lot of the blogs in the state of GA and the southeast they all are on the its gonna snow train.
> 
> I am not going to say its a lock, but all of the right players are going to be on the field, the question is... will we score?
> 
> The weather is going to be nice this weekend... enjoy it!


you need to transfer back to your old job


----------



## savreds

blood on the ground said:


> why do you torture us?
> 
> you need to transfer back to your old job



What he said!


----------



## John I. Shore

11-28-12, 0330 Anybody got a ice scraper I can borrow?  Temp dropped last night. 

John I.


----------



## Keebs

John I. Shore said:


> 11-28-12, 0330 Anybody got a ice scraper I can borrow?  Temp dropped last night.
> 
> John I.


----------



## savreds

John I. Shore said:


> 11-28-12, 0330 Anybody got a ice scraper I can borrow?  Temp dropped last night.
> 
> John I.


----------



## StriperAddict

Keebs said:


>


 


savreds said:


>


 
What? Ya'll make it seem like that's peculiar for Alaska.

I'd love me some snow drifts


----------



## savreds

StriperAddict said:


> What? Ya'll make it seem like that's peculiar for Alaska.
> 
> I'd love me some snow drifts



Well if'n he'd send some of it down this way I'd put me up a bunch of dancin nanners like this


----------



## PappyHoel

Had to poor hot water on the windshield this morning to get hunting quick!  Didn't wanna wait on the defrost malarkey.  It was 31 degrees


----------



## John I. Shore

savreds said:


> Well if'n he'd send some of it down this way I'd put me up a bunch of dancin nanners like this



I'd love too, Lord knows we have enough of it.  

I just keep thinking that it's only 57 more days till the sun comes back up.  Even if it is for only 21 Minutes.

John I.


----------



## BrotherBadger

Nitram4891 said:


> It was 25 here this morning in Michigan.  I'm ready to get back to GA.



25 is PERFECT hunting weather(assming you packed right. always layer, layer, layer.), the deer are all moving around, and it's not too cold. Was it windy? That's what always gets me. It can be 15 degrees outside, and i can hunt just fine if there's no wind. If you add wind into the equation, it gets uncomfortable REAL quick.

Just curious, were you in the UP, or the Mitt?


----------



## cjones

Was hunting in Iowa last Friday and the wind was blowing 20+ and the temp was pretty close to the same number.  Miserable day for working a dog into the wind looking for birds, but it managed to 'warm up' a couple of times. 

Made me remember why I moved back south a couple of years ago.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Saw 10 does in a frosty sedge grass field on the way to taking the kid to school this morning. Would have loved to get a picture of that, but it wasn't to be.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

The current NAO forecast moving into mid December does not bode well for the possibility of Winter precip during that period. Hopefully that will change later in the month.


----------



## Nitram4891

BrotherBadger said:


> 25 is PERFECT hunting weather(assming you packed right. always layer, layer, layer.), the deer are all moving around, and it's not too cold. Was it windy? That's what always gets me. It can be 15 degrees outside, and i can hunt just fine if there's no wind. If you add wind into the equation, it gets uncomfortable REAL quick.
> 
> Just curious, were you in the UP, or the Mitt?



I'm working....

I wouldn't mind having my bird dogs here and chasing some grouse over the weekend though.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The current NAO forecast moving into mid December does not bode well for the possibility of Winter precip during that period. Hopefully that will change later in the month.
> 
> View attachment 701758



Dang Global Warming!


----------



## DDD

Don't get to wound out about the short term warm up.... its coming....


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

DDD said:


> Don't get to wound out about the short term warm up.... its coming....



Spann was talking about things being block up just west of Alaska and that was the reason for the short lived cold spells and not much other activity. When do you think this block will break down?


----------



## GA DAWG

DDD said:


> Don't get to wound out about the short term warm up.... its coming....


What's coming? No ice I hope. Left my generator 200 miles south of here.


----------



## DDD

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Spann was talking about things being block up just west of Alaska and that was the reason for the short lived cold spells and not much other activity. When do you think this block will break down?



I agree and disagree.  The Alaskan block will hold some storms up but it can't block all of Canada from spilling out cold southward.  I agree with Kirk Melish that it will be warm streaks followed by artic outbreaks.


----------



## BrotherBadger

Well, i'm headed down to Ga in about 4 hours, I notice Highs in Americus are going to be in the 70s.  I'll take it, as we have had highs in the mid 30s-40s for the past few weeks here. 



cjones said:


> Was hunting in Iowa last Friday and the wind was blowing 20+ and the temp was pretty close to the same number.  Miserable day for working a dog into the wind looking for birds, but it managed to 'warm up' a couple of times.
> 
> Made me remember why I moved back south a couple of years ago.



Woof, i hate that. When the wind starts blowing hard it becomes almost unbearable.



Nitram4891 said:


> I'm working....
> 
> I wouldn't mind having my bird dogs here and chasing some grouse over the weekend though.



Dang that sucks. But hey, atleast it's work right?


----------



## PappyHoel

73 degrees tomorrow - winter weather in Georgia sucks.


----------



## Patriot44

PappyHoel said:


> 73 degrees tomorrow - winter weather in Georgia sucks.



I wish it were freezing cold, but man the boy and I have been hammering the ball field.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Patriot44 said:


> I wish it were freezing cold, but man the boy and I have been hammering the ball field.



Reckon we'll have to wait to see if anything will be coming down the pipe in January. So far this is a very typical Georgia winter.


----------



## jcountry

PappyHoel said:


> 73 degrees tomorrow - winter weather in Georgia sucks.



It usually ain't like this.

I am beginning to wonder if we will have a winter at all.....   Last year was TOOOOO warm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> It usually ain't like this.
> 
> I am beginning to wonder if we will have a winter at all.....   Last year was TOOOOO warm.



These temps are running dead on the average for none extreme weather event years. In 1990, this same time of year, Macon hit the 80's.


----------



## blood on the ground

Its beginning to look a lot like........labor day!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Its beginning to look a lot like........labor day!



Despite the potential with massive sunspots appearing to eject substantial CME's, it just isn't happening. We need solar activity to pick up significantly to encourage a negative NAO trend and set up high pressure blocking in the Atlantic in order to force the colder air down our way. Thus far, the sun isn't cooperating. The sunspots on the earthside of the sun are in rapid decay. The sunspots on the farside of the sun are massive and crazy. Hopefully they will stay together for the next cycle and give us some good activity.


----------



## panfried0419

After today's 74 and tomorrow's forecasted 76(in the NE GA area) I guess I can get the kayaks out. I'm not seeing this mini ice age that was predicted.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> After today's 74 and tomorrow's forecasted 76(in the NE GA area) I guess I can get the kayaks out. I'm not seeing this mini ice age that was predicted.



The Maunder Minimum? That is closer to 2014 before it kicks in good. Use the next day or two to split wood and dodge rain showers, because after that we'll barely see 50 degrees for a high for a few days.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The Maunder Minimum? That is closer to 2014 before it kicks in good. Use the next day or two to split wood and dodge rain showers, because after that *we'll barely see 50 degrees for a high for a few days*.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


>



Ummm, that don't count for you folks in the sand hills of gnat country.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ummm, that don't count for you folks in the sand hills of gnat country.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


>



Y'all will be in the mid 60's. Is that better?


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all will be in the mid 60's. Is that better?




Better`n this summer weather we`ve been havin` lately. Keeps this up I might as well go fishin`!


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ummm, that don't count for you folks in the sand hills of gnat country.





Nicodemus said:


>


yeah, what Nic said!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all will be in the mid 60's. Is that better?


 I reckon.............. ~shufflin off~.........


----------



## blood on the ground

Nicodemus said:


> Better`n this summer weather we`ve been havin` lately. Keeps this up I might as well go fishin`!



sounds good to me!!!!!


----------



## panfried0419

Well 10 day forecast for our area (Athens/Gainesville) looks mid 60s and 70s for the next 10 days. Looks like I'll be fishing. Too warm to hunt. Feels like bow season.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> Well 10 day forecast for our area (Athens/Gainesville) looks mid 60s and 70s for the next 10 days. Looks like I'll be fishing. Too warm to hunt. Feels like bow season.



I would find a new source for my weather info if I were you. You have bad intel.  What you have is good up until Monday, marginally.


----------



## shakey gizzard

If we dont start gett'n some rain, wont be no fishin neither!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Sure am loving me some warm December weather lately.


----------



## panfried0419

Miguel I have have been using an accuweather app. After looking at it this morning it changed. It matches your earlier forecast. I like yours much better. Now let's see some frozen stuff.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> Miguel I have have been using an accuweather app. After looking at it this morning it changed. It matches your earlier forecast. I like yours much better. Now let's see some frozen stuff.



You'll prolly have to wait a little longer for that.  I see it coolin off right nice like right before or around Christmas, but don't see any of the white stuff coming with it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,yet.


----------



## mewabbithunter

Where's DDD!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mewabbithunter said:


> Where's DDD!



He's got a real job now. Actually has to work.
What's the matter, you don't trust my forecastin abilities?


----------



## blood on the ground

mewabbithunter said:


> Where's DDD!



he lost a bet and is at my house cutting and splitting firewood!

whatchew need to no? ifin its about weather.... i tought D3 everythang he knows about WW,,,,, ask away!

or you can ax the messican


----------



## Greene728

shakey gizzard said:


> If we dont start gett'n some rain, wont be no fishin neither!





Sho nuff! Our catfish pond will be no more in a couple more months if something doesnt happen. We have a creek on our property that is all but dry and my FIL has lived here on our familys property his entire 62yrs of life and said hes never seen it dry before.... 
I also have 3 friends who's well's went dry in the last month also.

Its done gotten kinda scary round here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> Sho nuff! Our catfish pond will be no more in a couple more months if something doesnt happen. We have a creek on our property that is all but dry and my FIL has lived here on our familys property his entire 62yrs of life and said hes never seen it dry before....
> I also have 3 friends who's well's went dry in the last month also.
> 
> Its done gotten kinda scary round here.



If the models hold true we should get some good rain nearing the 20th of this month, but that is a long way out to depend on it right now.


----------



## georgia357

Greene728 said:


> I also have 3 friends who's well's went dry in the last month also.



Don't wanna hear that.  Where abouts do your friends live?


----------



## Greene728

georgia357 said:


> Don't wanna hear that.  Where abouts do your friends live?



West Coweta and East Heard Co. 
Honestly Ive heard of a few over the past summer. We havent had really good soaking measurable rain fall here in many months. Real quick heavy down pours or just enough to wet down the dust. And that doesnt do squat for ground water. Numerous small ponds and lakes already dry round here already.


----------



## Greene728

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If the models hold true we should get some good rain nearing the 20th of this month, but that is a long way out to depend on it right now.



I sure hope so Miguel.
Thanks!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

I miss DDD with his FINE self. Thanks for takin ova messican


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I miss DDD with his FINE self. Thanks for takin ova messican



I know, I don't candy coat and fluff the forecast do I..


----------



## DDD

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I miss DDD with his FINE self. Thanks for takin ova messican



I am probably closer but can't be mess'n around on the internets during the day now...  booo.... but I am much closer to home



Miguel Cervantes said:


> I know, I don't candy coat and fluff the forecast do I..



LOL...  ummm... ok.   



The NAO, PNA, AO and the Greenland blocking are getting themselves into place.  I believe the cold outbreak will be between December 27th and January 5th.

We have been somewhat spoiled with early winter weather, but typically January and February are are most active months for winter weather.

Still going to see wide swings in the temps, but I believe as January walks in, the real winter will show up.


----------



## SarahFair

Where is this "winter weather"?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

SarahFair said:


> Where is this "winter weather"?



It's here, this is a Georgia typical winter..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

High pressure blocking is currently effecting our chances for good rain. Looking at this first (NOAA) map one would be lead to believe that Sunday is a good chance for rain for us. However Miss. and Ala. will be the benefactors of that moisture pumping in from the Gulf. It will be late Monday or Tuesday before the moisture reaches us, and thanks the the High Pressure parked in the NE will greatly diminish our chances for high measures of rainfall. 

The encouraging trend is how deep into the SW States the snow is reaching. During a typical winter pattern for us, when Dallas starts getting snow we are usually next in line. 

Give it another week or two for the active side of the sun to get around to us, then another week or so for the CME activity to have it's effect and set up a good HPS block well out in the Atlantic and it's on here. Just as DDD has indicated. The problem is, there are a lot of conditions that have to come together to make it happen, but based on the NOAA map, and the level of activity on the far side of the sun, it could quite possibly happen.


----------



## Greene728

One thing I dont understand MC is that Al and MS are always the benefactors. Over the last few years they hog all the rain. It will be hot and heavy moving in from the west and poof! Either disipates or moves N, NW. What gives? What is the force that causes this? I know im whining but things are getting bad around these parts and I guess im just hoping for a change.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> One thing I dont understand MC is that Al and MS are always the benefactors. Over the last few years they hog all the rain. It will be hot and heavy moving in from the west and poof! Either disipates or moves N, NW. What gives? What is the force that causes this? I know im whining but things are getting bad around these parts and I guess im just hoping for a change.



Those evil little High Pressure systems just to our NE that pump dry air up in through the SE portion of the state. Once that puppy moves off shore it's on. I just looked at the progs again and looks like chances of moisture will be regularly occurring every 7 to 10 days. It is good when we get into a regular cycle of moisture with the possibility of temps falling going into January.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Trending changes are good, but first we have to filter through the inconsistencies in the models. Is rain starting to trend more regularly? Yep. Is cooler air starting to trend more regularly? Yep. Will the two ever match up to bring us some white stuff? Not this month (yet) but you never know when all of the magic will come together to give us the white stuff falling from the sky, or worse, borderline temps causing the wet stuff to freeze on everything (which I still maintain is a more likely scenario this season)

Here's a sample of what I'm looking at this morning.

First I pull up the gfs models to see what the weather around Christmas Eve will be, so far so dry, the precip hits us around the 20th and then clears out for a nice Christmas Holiday. That being said, after pegging the 20th as the day for precip, I pull up the Snow Coverage map (why not, right?) and here is what I see. Hmmmmm.


Then I pull up the precip map (rain) and the number of inches shown for rain over a 24 hour period do not match up with the dusting of snow shown on the map. 1/10" of rain = 1" of snow, so as you'll see, the two maps are not congruent.


So next I check the temperature maps to see why the dichotomy, and there it is, no where near cold enough for snow. So, although the maps are trying their best to reconcile winter weather for us around Christmas, unless you live up in NW North Carolina (NCHillbilly territory) I fear you'll be in for a cool clear Christmas day. Do keep in mind though, this forecast is 12 days out, and a lot can change in 12 days.


----------



## John I. Shore

SarahFair said:


> Where is this "winter weather"?



Hey Sarah, Here it is.

John I.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

John I. Shore said:


> Hey Sarah, Here it is.
> 
> John I.



Now THAT'S a wind chill, and it's gonna hit a balmy -17 degrees there tonight....


----------



## SnowHunter

My Cuz up in Fairbanks said it was -8 today


----------



## PappyHoel

SnowHunter said:


> My Cuz up in Fairbanks said it was -8 today



After 0 it just doesn't matter anymore.  Just cold.


----------



## John I. Shore

PappyHoel said:


> After 0 it just doesn't matter anymore.  Just cold.



Oh Pappy, it matters a lot......0 is heavyshirt weather, -20 you dig out the heavy coat,  -35 we take extra precaution and restrict use of equipment, -50 we shut most everything down and don't work outside longer than 10 min.  When it hits -60 and colder we sorta hunker down and wait it out.

-30 hurts, -45 it hurts to breath.

John I.


----------



## Greene728

John I. Shore said:


> Oh Pappy, it matters a lot......0 is heavyshirt weather, -20 you dig out the heavy coat,  -35 we take extra precaution and restrict use of equipment, -50 we shut most everything down and don't work outside longer than 10 min.  When it hits -60 and colder we sorta hunker down and wait it out.
> 
> -30 hurts, -45 it hurts to breath.
> 
> John I.




Id be taking extra precautions myself. It would involve boxes and a U-Haul!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Predictive satellite/radar image for tomorrow at 7pm. 
Wouldn't this be nice?


----------



## Greene728

^^^= Happy, Happy, Happy!


----------



## DDD

So.... I am starting to lose the faith on a really wild winter.  Not saying we still won't get a good snow in late December or January, but the blocking is just not setting up right in Greenland and the PNA actual is not following the forecasted models.  

Soo... what does it mean?  I think we need a serious cold snap, which with the current set up would mean severe weather followed by some really good cold.  The AO and the NAO are all forecasted to be really negative, which is almost a solid lock for SE winter weather, but that is also dependent on Greenland blocking which is usually a given, but this year it is not.  (Frustrating)

Looking at the GFS this morning, it shows some serious rainfall totals for the entire state on the  23rd of December, snow in Tenn.

Right now there is a lot of white Christmas going on in extreme North Carolina, Virginia, W. Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri and Iowa.

In weather world, that is a long ways off.  The good thing is, it's trying to get it's act together, the bad thing is, it's not set up just yet like I thought it would be.


----------



## Bitteroot

PappyHoel said:


> After 0 it just doesn't matter anymore.  Just cold.



I used to work for Mayfield.  The freezer was -30 all the time. We would come out to the -5 area to warm up a bit.....t shirts in the 10 degree area was not uncommon..

3 degrees is soft serve.....


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Was doing some late morning checking at the "Weather Maps at a Glance" in this Around the Campfire section & noticed some chilly looking frozen precipitation in Northeast Mississippi on the back edge of this wet system coming thru Georgia.  Gonna miss all the warm weather in December.


----------



## crackerdave

As the TV folks wet their pants with excitement,it looks "tornadic" [their favorite word] to me!


----------



## Greene728

Really good rain today! Short lived for sure, but we'll take it...


----------



## Holton

Nice to see the rain for sure.


----------



## Naturegirl

We got over an inch out here near Rockmart, GA.  No storms, just rain with a little thunder and lightning.  Thank you mother nature!!


----------



## blood on the ground

Naturegirl said:


> We got over an inch out here near Rockmart, GA.  No storms, just rain with a little thunder and lightning.  Thank you mother nature!!



yep, it rained most of the day in N paulding. sure was nice!


----------



## todd03blown

Here is Matthew East's latest video from this morning. Interesting what could be taking shape next week.





Please embedd your videos as required by the rules.


----------



## Wade Chandler

At least we're starting to get some fantasy storms.  Better than nothing!


----------



## mewabbithunter

Wade Chandler said:


> At least we're starting to get some fantasy storms.  Better than nothing!


I agree!


----------



## savreds

My oldest son just headed up to the Smokies today with one of his friends to camp for the night and do some hiking. Something to do after taking his last exam up at UGA yesterday. 
He called me about an hour ago and said that they had set up camp and drove on up to Newfound Gap. The trees are covered in ice. It was 29 degrees when he called me and said that the low was supposed to be around 25 tonight!
Wish that I could have gone with him!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> Here is Matthew East's latest video from this morning. Interesting what could be taking shape next week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Please embedd your videos as required by the rules.



Two problems with that video. Matthew East does an outstanding job for NC, but there's not a NC Met that ever gets it right for Georgia. They seem to think we are as far north as they are. The other is relying on the Euro for an accurate winter weather forecast, again for Georgia. It just never really pans out the way they say it will, unless the other models are on board.

What we do have setting up for Christmas, is a good cold snap, and following that a real good shot at some winter precip heading out of Dec. and into Jan. Right now far north Ga might see some white stuff, but us folks in Suburbia are in a marginal temp range, and as I told BigOx and DDD in a message earlier today, Jan. 7th 1973 comes to mind on what we might could see. 

The ever constant dependable element to weather is, Time Will Tell.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Just learned a new weather term I have not heard or seen before.  At the 6:30pm Ch. 2 WSB weather news reports, Glen Burns was tracking some unexpected frozen precip that he called *"graupel"* where he defined it as *"a mushy ice pellet"*.  

We sure are having some cool spells lately these days.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Just learned a new weather term I have not heard or seen before.  At the 6:30pm Ch. 2 WSB weather news reports, Glen Burns was tracking some unexpected frozen precip that he called *"graupel"* where he defined it as *"a mushy ice pellet"*.
> 
> We sure are having some cool spells lately these days.



That rarely hits the ground, and he said it at least eleventymillion times, as if it was his new word for the day.


----------



## panfried0419

Sleeting in North Jackson County!


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That rarely hits the ground, and he said it at least eleventymillion times, as if it was his new word for the day.


 There you are!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> Sleeting in North Jackson County!



IT'S GRAUPEL...


----------



## panfried0419

It's a good site to see.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> It's a good site to see.



Maybe, until you consider that the very same precip is only one or two degrees away from being freezing rain.


----------



## rjcruiser

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What we do have setting up for Christmas, is a good cold snap, and following that a real good shot at some winter precip heading out of Dec. and into Jan. Right now far north Ga might see some white stuff, but us folks in Suburbia are in a marginal temp range, and as I told BigOx and DDD in a message earlier today, Jan. 7th 1973 comes to mind on what we might could see.
> 
> The ever constant dependable element to weather is, Time Will Tell.



Oooohhh...Ice does make for good sledding


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Two problems with that video. Matthew East does an outstanding job for NC, but there's not a NC Met that ever gets it right for Georgia. They seem to think we are as far north as they are. The other is relying on the Euro for an accurate winter weather forecast, again for Georgia. It just never really pans out the way they say it will, unless the other models are on board.
> 
> What we do have setting up for Christmas, is a good cold snap, and following that a real good shot at some winter precip heading out of Dec. and into Jan. Right now far north Ga might see some white stuff, but us folks in Suburbia are in a marginal temp range, and as I told BigOx and DDD in a message earlier today, Jan. 7th 1973 comes to mind on what we might could see.
> 
> The ever constant dependable element to weather is, Time Will Tell.



i was not part of this great place called planet earth in 1973 sir! what happened on that day? big snow, ice storm?


----------



## todd03blown

blood on the ground said:


> i was not part of this great place called planet earth in 1973 sir! what happened on that day? big snow, ice storm?



I looked this storm up online yesterday. It stated that 1-4" of ice fell the evening of the 7th . Over 300k were with out power for a week. Pretty significant ice storm for sure.


----------



## blood on the ground

todd03blown said:


> I looked this storm up online yesterday. It stated that 1-4" of ice fell the evening of the 7th . Over 300k were with out power for a week. Pretty significant ice storm for sure.



 ice aint good! man i guessing with all the overhead power lines back then it was a giant mess! 

im done if ice comes to my neck of the woods. the road im on is nothing but hills and curves!


----------



## Hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> i was not part of this great place called planet earth in 1973 sir! what happened on that day? big snow, ice storm?



Dadgum youngins these days. Jeesh. Out of school for over a week, Ambulance went around picking up all the nurses they could, mama was at work for a long spell, UGA shut down, pop stayed at home with us, had moved back to Ga from the S.C. low country 6 months prier, only seen frozen precipitation once in my life, discovered just how FAST a old toilet lid would go, smoked them fancy store bought sleds


----------



## Jeff Raines

todd03blown said:


> I looked this storm up online yesterday. It stated that 1-4" of ice fell the evening of the 7th . Over 300k were with out power for a week. Pretty significant ice storm for sure.



I was 7,I remember it.We were living in The Marietta Place Apartment(da hood)


----------



## blood on the ground

Hornet22 said:


> Dadgum youngins these days. Jeesh. Out of school for over a week, Ambulance went around picking up all the nurses they could, mama was at work for a long spell, UGA shut down, pop stayed at home with us, had moved back to Ga from the S.C. low country 6 months prier, only seen frozen precipitation once in my life, discovered just how FAST a old toilet lid would go, smoked them fancy store bought sleds



hey I cant help what year I graced this world  you just be glad im around .... alright!


----------



## Nicodemus

blood on the ground said:


> i was not part of this great place called planet earth in 1973 sir! what happened on that day? big snow, ice storm?



My mode of transportation at that time was a 400 Suzuki trail bike. It was somewhat rough to ride in those conditions.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That rarely hits the ground, and he said it at least eleventymillion times, as if it was his new word for the day.



He did say it lots of times, didn't he. 

Sounded uncommon like you said so us folks on the ground usually would never see it.  Yep, he did take a shining & fondness to his new word that none of the other competing metro Atlanta local news channels did not mention. 

Thank God it's warming up more today already with more sunshine.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> He did say it lots of times, didn't he.
> 
> Sounded uncommon like you said so us folks on the ground usually would never see it.  Yep, he did take a shining & fondness to his new word that none of the other competing metro Atlanta local news channels did not mention.
> 
> Thank God it's warming up more today already with more sunshine.



Prior to Dual Pole Dopplar Radar (new in the last couple of years) that noise on the radar was merely referred to as Verga, which was considered precip that rarely hit the ground and wasn't of any concern. If you'll search back though the Severe Weather Thread I did several posts dealing with the different levels of precip that the new DP could pick up. Graupel was one of them, and one that drew several comments.  When it did hit the ground they used to refer to it as either soft sleet or snow pellets. Some genius at NOAA / NWS made up a name for it. Sort of like those two ridges of skin right under your nose that go down to your lips. Try lookin that one up in a dictionary..


----------



## usardog

Hey y'all can anyone name the major winter weather events sense the ice storm of 1973. I remember some of them from about 79 or 80 but I am sure that i am missing some. Just day dreaming/wish for the winter.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Prior to Dual Pole Dopplar Radar (new in the last couple of years) that noise on the radar was merely referred to as Verga, which was considered precip that rarely hit the ground and wasn't of any concern. If you'll search back though the Severe Weather Thread I did several posts dealing with the different levels of precip that the new DP could pick up. Graupel was one of them, and one that drew several comments.  When it did hit the ground they used to refer to it as either soft sleet or snow pellets. Some genius at NOAA / NWS made up a name for it. Sort of like those two ridges of skin right under your nose that go down to your lips. Try lookin that one up in a dictionary..



Thanks.  Verga, soft sleet, & snow pellets are the terms I'm use to hearing.  I need to go back & read the dual pole dopplar radar details to see if I remember reading it.

EDIT: "Virga" thanks to "mountainpass".

EDIT:  Found it. "soft hail" makes more sense to me.  Whoa, "4-D radar", how cool is that!  Sorry I missed all this good stuff.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=707819&page=4



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Thanks to Dual Pole Radar I now have new toys at my disposal to analyze storm cells, whether it be thunder storms or winter weather. The particular one I am familiarizing myself with right now is the Hydrometeor Classification Rad.
> 
> I'll list the acronyms and their meaning first, then show you the Rad I am watching for the Macon area right now.
> 
> BI = Biological (not a weather related reflection)
> GC = Ground Clutter
> IC = Ice Cyrstals
> DS = Dry Snow
> WS = Wet Snow
> LR = Light Rain
> HR = Heavy Rain
> BD = Big Drops of rain
> GR = Graupel (soft hail )
> HA = Hail
> UK = Unkown
> RF = Raster (basically beyond the parameters of the radar frequency to discern identity)
> 
> Now, here's a pic of what I see in those cells down around Macon.
> 
> View attachment 688542
> 
> I have several other products, but to fully interpret their data I will need to take a couple of the dual pole courses available on the NOAA site when I get some free time. All in all I am excited about the new toys and the info they will be giving me in near real time effeciency...





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, Graupel is a designation they give for "soft hail" or "snow pellets". Then HA = Hail is what the radar can discern as the stuff that will put a not on your noggin..
> The really cool thing about Dual Pole technology is that it is consider 4-D radar, thus going beyond what the capabilities of mere Dopplar could ever extract from a cell. Lots to learn with these new toys, and I'm sure my brain will be turned to Graupel before it's all said and done...





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Glad you think so, cause you are about to be over run with graupel........ It will most likely be just rain at the surface, and not really discernible on the ground as anything else. This is the rain drops that kind of sound like hail, but don't, and when they hit the surface you think you see ice in them, but then it melts so fast you really aren't sure... Either way, according to the hydrorad for your area you are in the middle of a major snow event.  Which given the nearly 22k tops of that storm is possible, until it hits the warmer temps of the surface air.
> 
> View attachment 688549


----------



## jbird1

usardog said:


> Hey y'all can anyone name the major winter weather events sense the ice storm of 1973. I remember some of them from about 79 or 80 but I am sure that i am missing some. Just day dreaming/wish for the winter.



Snowjam '82 was the most memorable for me.  I remember dad walked home from Midtown Atlanta to East Cobb that night.  I believe he got in well after midnight (8-9 hour commute.)

The second most memorable for me was the spring 7-8 incher in '83.  I remember going to bed with a rain forcast and waking up to GIANT snowflakes coming down.  Guy Sharpe sure had a time of it back in those days.


----------



## mountainpass

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Prior to Dual Pole Dopplar Radar (new in the last couple of years) that noise on the radar was merely referred to as Verga, which was considered precip that rarely hit the ground and wasn't of any concern.


Virga.



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Sort of like those two ridges of skin right under your nose that go down to your lips. Try lookin that one up in a dictionary..


Philtrum.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mountainpass said:


> Virga.
> 
> 
> Philtrum.



What he said.


----------



## NCHillbilly

savreds said:


> My oldest son just headed up to the Smokies today with one of his friends to camp for the night and do some hiking. Something to do after taking his last exam up at UGA yesterday.
> He called me about an hour ago and said that they had set up camp and drove on up to Newfound Gap. The trees are covered in ice. It was 29 degrees when he called me and said that the low was supposed to be around 25 tonight!
> Wish that I could have gone with him!



Nah, you'd get tired of it if you lived here-it's like that from early October to mid-May. We already had a 3' snowfall in my county this year, supposed to snow again Tuesday. Us that live here wish we had some of y'alls warm weather by about March. It's 35* here right now, and the sun just went down a couple hours ago. You start getting tired of heating bills after about six months, too.


----------



## savreds

NCHillbilly said:


> You start getting tired of heating bills after about six months, too.



I say the same thing about the COOLING bill! 
He just got home late this afternoon. He  said that Tuesday afternoon when they headed over to Gatlinburg to get something to eat, there was a lot more ice on the Tennesse side and they drove thru some snow flurries. 
They did an 11 mile hike on Wednesday that he said was the hardest he's done yet!


----------



## savreds

Heyyyy... The Weather Channel has got a "Storm:Con"
Uhhhh...Ahhhh!!!
When we gonna get us sumthin like dat???


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

*White Christmas Considerations*

Saw an interesting map of the chances for a white Christmas on the Ch. 11 or 11Alive local metro Atlanta TV weather news  this early evening, but of course there were no surprises for Georgia. After a quick web search, here's a few items I found.  



http://www.weather.com/family-kids/holidays-christmas/white-christmas-forecast-20121211 

White Christmas Forecast 2012 

"This is not a map of "historical probability" or "climatology", but our best forecast at which areas may have a White Christmas this year. "







Christmas AM Snow Cover Map the Last 5 Years (2007-2011 "animated") below:







http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=whitechristmas 

Historical Probability of a White Christmas








http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/us-average-whit/5536 

"Here's a prettier, less detailed version:"








http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...s-updated-average-white-christmas-map/2583000 

Updated Average White Christmas Map in HD! 

December 11, 2012


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Heyyyy... The Weather Channel has got a "Storm:Con"
> Uhhhh...Ahhhh!!!
> When we gonna get us sumthin like dat???





BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Saw an interesting map of the chances for a white Christmas on the Ch. 11 or 11Alive local metro Atlanta TV weather news  this early evening, but of course there were no surprises for Georgia. After a quick web search, here's a few items I found.



Dear God make it stop.


----------



## SnowHunter

Everything was frozen this morning!


----------



## savreds

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Saw an interesting map of the chances for a white Christmas on the Ch. 11 or 11Alive local metro Atlanta TV weather news  this early evening, but of course there were no surprises for Georgia. After a quick web search, here's a few items I found.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.weather.com/family-kids/holidays-christmas/white-christmas-forecast-20121211
> 
> White Christmas Forecast 2012
> 
> "This is not a map of "historical probability" or "climatology", but our best forecast at which areas may have a White Christmas this year. "
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Christmas AM Snow Cover Map the Last 5 Years (2007-2011 "animated") below:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=whitechristmas
> 
> Historical Probability of a White Christmas
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/us-average-whit/5536
> 
> "Here's a prettier, less detailed version:"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...s-updated-average-white-christmas-map/2583000
> 
> Updated Average White Christmas Map in HD!
> 
> December 11, 2012




Debbie Downer has spoken!!!  









Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dear God make it stop.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

SnowHunter said:


> Everything was frozen this morning!



Everything?


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everything?



Dat's whut da lady said!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Not liking this 12/26 gfs model that keeps coming and going. It keeps intermittently showing shallow cold air from the NE running down the back side of the Apps. (a THunter wedge) with warm moist gulf air being drawn up by a low over North Central Tennessee. The cold air is only at the lowest levels, making it a shallow layer, with warm moisture over riding it makes for a perfect Ice Storm scenario in northern parts of Ga. effected by the wedge. Hopefully the moisture will be warm enough to force the wedge out prior to good rain moving in, but if the wedge holds fast it could get pretty ugly pretty quick.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not liking this 12/26 gfs model that keeps coming and going. It keeps intermittently showing shallow cold air from the NE running down the back side of the Apps. (a THunter wedge) with warm moist gulf air being drawn up by a low over North Central Tennessee. The cold air is only at the lowest levels, making it a shallow layer, with warm moisture over riding it makes for a perfect Ice Storm scenario in northern parts of Ga. effected by the wedge. Hopefully the moisture will be warm enough to force the wedge out prior to good rain moving in, but if the wedge holds fast it could get pretty ugly pretty quick.



hush yo mouth


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> hush yo mouth



I've been watching it come and go with each model run for several days now and have been trying to keep it on the down lo. However we're within a 12 day window where travel plans have been made and folks need to consider these things as a possibility, especially when the MSM weather entertainers aren't mentioning it.


----------



## SnowHunter

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everything?



Uh yeah   stepped out to crank the truck up at 7 and almost froze completely


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not liking this 12/26 gfs model that keeps coming and going. It keeps intermittently showing shallow cold air from the NE running down the back side of the Apps. (a THunter wedge) with warm moist gulf air being drawn up by a low over North Central Tennessee. The cold air is only at the lowest levels, making it a shallow layer, with warm moisture over riding it makes for *a perfect Ice Storm scenario* in northern parts of Ga. effected by the wedge. Hopefully the moisture will be warm enough to force the wedge out prior to good rain moving in, but if the wedge holds fast it could get pretty ugly pretty quick.



So some in Georgia have potential chances for a White Ice Christmas???


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I've been watching it come and go with each model run for several days now and have been trying to keep it on the down lo. However we're within a 12 day window where travel plans have been made and folks need to consider these things as a possibility, especially when the MSM weather entertainers aren't mentioning it.



well i guess we could do some high speed sleding


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not liking this 12/26 gfs model that keeps coming and going. It keeps intermittently showing shallow cold air from the NE running down the back side of the Apps. (a THunter wedge) with warm moist gulf air being drawn up by a low over North Central Tennessee. The cold air is only at the lowest levels, making it a shallow layer, with warm moisture over riding it makes for a perfect Ice Storm scenario in northern parts of Ga. effected by the wedge. Hopefully the moisture will be warm enough to force the wedge out prior to good rain moving in, but if the wedge holds fast it could get pretty ugly pretty quick.



That sounds like it would be about a 2 or a 3 on the "Storm:Con"!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> That sounds like it would be about a 2 or a 3 on the "Storm:Con"!!!



Don't forget about this..


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't forget about this..
> 
> View attachment 704496



I could use a "Draco"... sounds like a mean ole storm or maybe a "Luna", that would have to be a crazy one that throws out all kinda stuff!!!  
It would be fun to watch all these idjits drive about 100 feet from there driveway and then run off in the ditch cause they're trying to drive like it's DRY. heck they can't even drive without wrecking when it sprinkles much less snow!


----------



## GA DAWG

What yall talking about ice christmas? Should I do my shopping before Christmas eve?


----------



## savreds

Don't forget the bread and milk while you're there!


----------



## higgy

How bout ya DDD, you out there. Your new job must really have you busy.


----------



## Hornet22

The torinawda sirens just went off here, don't look like bad weather IMHO


----------



## Keebs

Hornet22 said:


> The torinawda sirens just went off here, don't look like bad weather IMHO


 fo real?????


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Hornet22 said:


> The torinawda sirens just went off here, don't look like bad weather IMHO



thinking the button pusher is


----------



## DDD

Forget about snow for a second, the best rainfall all fall / winter is going to start tomorrow with a bang.  

NWS is talking about Supercells and such.


----------



## DDD

Rain map.


----------



## Hornet22

gobbleinwoods said:


> thinking the button pusher is



Consider location; jus sayin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Consider location; jus sayin.



They took Barneys one bullet away from him and he got bored and started mashin buttons..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> NWS is talking about Supercells and such.



For central and southern Miss. and central bama,,,,,,maybe. It'll be into late Sunday or early monday by the time that worn out system gets to us. I'd love to get 1.5" or better but also realize we'll be lucky to get 1/2" in our area, maybe a solid inch or a little better across central Ga.


----------



## shakey gizzard

The more the marrier!


----------



## DDD

Things have gotten a little more unstable for tomorrow.


----------



## DDD

I like this... we need this about every week from now until March.


----------



## DDD

As for winter weather... The GFS keeps flip flopping in regards to really cold air around the 25-28th.  The EURO has kept after the thought of cold air, with High pressure off the Atlantic coast and then over running rain coming out of the Gulf.

This would be Miguel's ice storm he keeps talking about.  The GFS does not buy it ever.  It has shown cold air deeply south but no moisture around this same time frame.

We will have to keep watching that time frame if for nothing else for moisture potential.  

We need moisture in a bad way.


----------



## panfried0419

Skipped winter Early April is here.


----------



## Greene728

DDD said:


> I like this... we need this about every week from now until March.


----------



## Keebs

BAD winds just hit between Mystic & Ocilla......... My Mama's place!!!!!!!  TOP to the car port (old metal kind) is in the front pasture, her pump house is *shredded* and a magnolia tree near it is in HALF!!!!!!!  Thank Heavens one of my nieces was with her, she said lots of limbs down too, but said it looked like the house was fine.........


----------



## SGADawg

Keebs said:


> BAD winds just hit between Mystic & Ocilla......... My Mama's place!!!!!!!  TOP to the car port (old metal kind) is in the front pasture, her pump house is *shredded* and a magnolia tree near it is in HALF!!!!!!!  Thank Heavens one of my nieces was with her, she said lots of limbs down too, but said it looked like the house was fine.........



Glad everyone and the house is ok.  Looks like it will hit us here in the Douglas area in the next little while.  We need the rain but could do without damaging winds.


----------



## zworley3

Keebs said:


> BAD winds just hit between Mystic & Ocilla......... My Mama's place!!!!!!!  TOP to the car port (old metal kind) is in the front pasture, her pump house is *shredded* and a magnolia tree near it is in HALF!!!!!!!  Thank Heavens one of my nieces was with her, she said lots of limbs down too, but said it looked like the house was fine.........




Wow! Hope everyone is safe.


----------



## Keebs

SGADawg said:


> Glad everyone and the house is ok.  Looks like it will hit us here in the Douglas area in the next little while.  We need the rain but could do without damaging winds.


Niece said the banana trees were "laying down" when they looked out, but were back up by the time we talked........... and to snap a magnolia tree????


zworley3 said:


> Wow! Hope everyone is safe.


 Thank you, yes they are! Thank heavens!


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Keebs said:


> BAD winds just hit between Mystic & Ocilla......... My Mama's place!!!!!!!  TOP to the car port (old metal kind) is in the front pasture, her pump house is *shredded* and a magnolia tree near it is in HALF!!!!!!!  Thank Heavens one of my nieces was with her, she said lots of limbs down too, but said it looked like the house was fine.........



Glad they are OK.


----------



## Keebs

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Glad they are OK.


 Thank you........... just got sent some pictures........... TJ should have said "collapsed" instead of *shredded* on the pump house.....

First is the collapsed pump house
2nd is what's left of the top of the car port
3rd is the "Snapped" Magnolia tree
4th shows Mama's front porch & look to the left, see her car?  Oh & the golf cart got moved out from UNDER the car port!


----------



## NCHillbilly

Durn!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> Thank you........... just got sent some pictures........... TJ should have said "collapsed" instead of *shredded* on the pump house.....
> 
> First is the collapsed pump house
> 2nd is what's left of the top of the car port
> 3rd is the "Snapped" Magnolia tree
> 4th shows Mama's front porch & look to the left, see her car?  Oh & the golf cart got moved out from UNDER the car port!



Dang good breeze. Glad she is ok.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dang good breeze. Glad she is ok.


Nuttin like the "Micro Burst" that hit baby sis's place a few years back..........


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Keebs said:


> Thank you........... just got sent some pictures........... TJ should have said "collapsed" instead of *shredded* on the pump house.....
> 
> First is the collapsed pump house
> 2nd is what's left of the top of the car port
> 3rd is the "Snapped" Magnolia tree
> 4th shows Mama's front porch & look to the left, see her car?  Oh & the golf cart got moved out from UNDER the car port!


----------



## jcountry

Matthew east says there is much colder air coming right after Christmas...  Possible cold-air damming, and some stuff to keep an eye on. 

(Fingers crossed.)   I am REALLY tired of midsummer weather in Dec.   This ain't Florida!

(Maybe we can say "Hace Mucho Frio"  by then!)


----------



## BrotherBadger

Well, I was starting to wonder if I was going to have a 2nd green christmas in as many years(extremely rare up here), but looks like Draco has decided to drop the hammer this week. Just got an update that a winter storm watch has been listed for my area for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 

Draco is expected to drop 6-15 inches with 40mph gusts  from 6pm Weds-6pm thursday. As long as it's on the low side of that equation, i'm fine with that(a few inches of snow is nothing to worry about). Once it gets near a foot, I'm in trouble as i have to drive 40 miles through back country roads to get to work that night. 

EDIT: Now they are calling for thundersnow. Great......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Me and NOAA/NWS are in disagreement about the weather coming in two days from now. Here is the potential for severe weather from NWS for that period.



However, in looking at the instability model maps for that same period there are three factors I look for. High CAPE, Low CIN and a strong LI. In the area of the highest percentage for activity on the NWS map the CIN is pretty high, the CAPE is relatively low and the LI is non existent, which does not validate their prediction.

I do however think, with the very cold air (20 degrees) chasing the warm air and pushing this system on out the areas across North Alabama and North Georgia do stand a good chance of seeing some severe weather on Thursday into early Friday.  The CAPE is not too high, but it is elevated, the CIN is non-existent and the LI is respectable across that region. 

Either way, with that kind of cold air pushing rain out of here, the ground is good and soaked  and we can expect some good wind, so trees might hit the ground either way, regardless of what part of the state you'll be in. 

Time will tell.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> Matthew east says there is much colder air coming right after Christmas...  Possible cold-air damming, and some stuff to keep an eye on.
> 
> (Fingers crossed.)   I am REALLY tired of midsummer weather in Dec.   This ain't Florida!
> 
> (Maybe we can say "Hace Mucho Frio"  by then!)



That would be a CAD event you might see DDD and I refer to from time to time, or as we like to phrase it, a THunter Wedge.  It was the scenario I was describing for the 26th that would have lead to a freezing rain scenario for us, fortunately that wedge, or CAD prediction has eased off. 

However, what is setting up is a worse scenario for severe weather than we'll have on Thursday. At present a massive low is forecast to come in across the Tn. Valley with a good amount of cold air pushing in behind it. It will be accompanied by a strong W to E jet and a very strong SW to NE flow and a ton of gulf moisture. All of the elements are in place for more of a severe Ga. event than Bama event, which is highly unusual. CAPE,CIN and LI are all perfect, the Crossover Shear is looking scary good for all kinds of severe weather from SOWEGA to N. Ga. for the 27th of Dec. 

Keep your eye's and ears open, and maybe say a prayer that this forecast moderates drastically. We don't need a history making December event of this nature.

As far as what Matty E. is talking about for the beginning of 2013, well I'm not seeing it. What I am seeing is a strong blast out of Central Canada dipping all the way to the Gulf Coast (which is the exact opposite of a CAD event) bringing a good chance for snow to a good portion of N. Miss, NW. Al, Tn and NW NC. Currently there is showing a LPS just west of FL. that would keep us out of the weather due to what could be referred to as WAD, or warm air damming keeping that good cold air to give us snow out of Georgia. 

Again, time will tell.


----------



## SGADawg

Sitting in my deer stand east of Broxton I can see at least 2 large pines that have snapped off. One of my towers that I passed on the way in is laying down.  When I get down I  have 2 more to check on.


----------



## Keebs

SGADawg said:


> Sitting in my deer stand east of Broxton I can see at least 2 large pines that have snapped off. One of my towers that I passed on the way in is laying down.  When I get down I  have 2 more to check on.


Friend of mine works in Fitz., lives in Douglas, said she saw LOTS of downed limbs/trees on the way home last night.


----------



## bluemarlin

I've been following this thread for a while... Here's my contribution taken directly from our local Mayan weather station.


----------



## shakey gizzard

bluemarlin said:


> I've been following this thread for a while... Here's my contribution taken directly from our local Mayan weather station.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Miguel, Are you seeing a "red letter" day setting up for a day or so after christmas? I sure hope not and I'm sure hoping the forecast models will change in a big big way from what they are right now. It's dang shame seems we have to worry about Tornados year round.


----------



## SGADawg

Climbed out of my deerstand to carnage this morning.   3 of 5 towers laying on the ground, and about 10 trees down on the fences.  1 pine had broken off about 20 feet up  and the top was about 50 feet from the tree!!. 2 of the towers were anchored and broke the straps!

This was about 5 miles east of Broxton, Ga.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Sure is looking chilly Thursday night or *Friday morning when the 1st Day of Winter arrives* when this cold wave moves into Georgia. 



http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/holidays/uscurrentsnowcover_large.html 

Current U.S. Snow Cover Map 










http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-weather-watch-2012-2013 

Winter Weather Watch: Winter Storm Draco's Second Phase

Dec 18, 2012 


































http://www.weather.com/family-kids/holidays-christmas/white-christmas-forecast-20121211 

White Christmas Forecast 2012


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Sure is looking chilly Thursday night or *Friday morning when the 1st Day of Winter arrives* when this cold wave moves into Georgia.



Which is it you are unsure of? When winter will arrive? or when the cold air will move in?

The Winter Solstice is Friday the 21st, and the coldest night will also be on Friday. Down in the 20's for us north of the God forsaken gnat line.

Oh yeah, lets also don't forget the beginning of a new Solar period. The 5th solar period according to the Mayans.

And one more thing, it's going to be dang windy on Friday


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> north of the God forsaken gnat line.
> 
> ]



Hey... them God forsaken gnats help keep SOME of them dang Yankees from moving down here!!!


----------



## jcountry

It least it will be cool enough for me to have a fire for the next few days!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

According to the NWS, my friends down in SOWEGA need to have their ears and eyes trained to the sky tomorrow from around Noon thirty on into the afternoon. Y'all be careful down there.

ALBANY, GA / THURSDAY:
Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 74. *some thunderstorms may be severe with gusty winds*. South winds around 20 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.


----------



## Jeff C.

Headin Norf in a couple days....looks like I may have a white Christmas afterall!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Jeff C. said:


> Headin Norf in a couple days....looks like I may have a white Christmas afterall!



How far Norf you headin?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Jeff C. said:


> Headin Norf in a couple days....looks like I may have a white Christmas afterall!



Bring some back!


----------



## BrotherBadger

Well, this blizzard has been a truckbed full of suck so far. 2 inches fell early in the night(pretty easy driving through it), and now the temp has risen enough to turn the snow into rain. That doesn't sound too bad......except the temp is expected to drop again in about 2 hours and go back to snow, and turn all that rain into ice.

New totals expected: 18-21 inches by late this afternoon. Whiteout conditions expected with up to 50mph gusts.



Jeff C. said:


> Headin Norf in a couple days....looks like I may have a white Christmas afterall!



Where you headed?


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Which is it you are unsure of? When winter will arrive? or when the cold air will move in?
> 
> The Winter Solstice is Friday the 21st, and the coldest night will also be on Friday. Down in the 20's for us north of the God forsaken gnat line.
> 
> Oh yeah, lets also don't forget the beginning of a new Solar period. The 5th solar period according to the Mayans.View attachment 705180
> 
> And one more thing, it's going to be dang windy on Friday View attachment 705181



Really like your windy & lightning animated graphics image, but not looking forward to cold wind & cold temps on Friday.  Not looking forward to the Mayan solar period forecast prediction either. 

Forecasts I saw last night on the local TV metro Atlanta news reported almost a 20 degree (approx. 18 degrees) cooler temperature drop late today Thursday evening as compared to the previous day at the same time.  Of course, the wind chill factor with approx. 20mph winds will make it feel significantly worse.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Really like your windy & lightning animated graphics image, but not looking forward to cold wind & cold temps on Friday.  Not looking forward to the Mayan solar period forecast prediction either.
> 
> Forecasts I saw last night on the local TV metro Atlanta news reported almost a 20 degree (approx. 18 degrees) cooler temperature drop late today Thursday evening as compared to the previous day at the same time.  Of course, the wind chill factor with approx. 20mph winds will make it feel significantly worse.


All the Mayans ever said was that we would be entering the fifth solar period, it was Al Gore or somebody like that, that turned it into a global disaster in hopes of making money off of it somehow.

Just a little breezy and brisk tomorrow, don't be such an Alice..


----------



## EAGLE EYE 444

MC,
 I just got off the phone with my girlfriend in Houston and she said all heck broke loose this morning around 1 AM Texas time.  The thunder and lightning and then the really heavy rains were coming down completely sideways due to high winds in the range of 40-60 mph with this line of storms. 

While I was talking to her a few minutes ago, I clicked on the weather map in this forum and was surprised that these storms are showing up already in the western and northern sections of Georgia with the accompanying rains.  It is hard to believe that this system could move eastward that fast.  She told me that I better hold on to my jewels real tight because I might get blown away.  She said that it was a very violent and nasty line of storms for sure, and thankfully, it only lasted about an hour or so and then it calmed down with much colder temps behind it of course.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

EAGLE EYE 444 said:


> MC,
> I just got off the phone with my girlfriend in Houston and she said all heck broke loose this morning around 1 AM Texas time.  The thunder and lightning and then the really heavy rains were coming down completely sideways due to high winds in the range of 40-60 mph with this line of storms.
> 
> While I was talking to her a few minutes ago, I clicked on the weather map in this forum and was surprised that these storms are showing up already in the western and northern sections of Georgia with the accompanying rains.  It is hard to believe that this system could move eastward that fast.  She told me that I better hold on to my jewels real tight because I might get blown away.  She said that it was a very violent and nasty line of storms for sure, and thankfully, it only lasted about an hour or so and then it calmed down with much colder temps behind it of course.


The rain will last a little longer for us, and the upside is, the more rain and stability through atmospheric cooling we get up front with the earlier bands of rain, the better. The bad thing is, I'm not sure SOWEGA will benefit much from the same effect, as their temps are up there anyway. We are just now seeing the leading edge of some of the rain bands and shouldn't see the good wind until the trailing edge starts to approach us.


----------



## GA DAWG

Is it gonna snow tonight?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

If you folks down in SOWEGA remember DDD and I talking about severe potential and percentages a couple of years ago then this map will mean something significant to you. If you don't remember it, then please understand, that even having your area in a 2% threat percentage is huge. What you have for this afternoon and this evening is worthy of keeping your weather radios on for and especially keeping an eye towards the sky. Winter time severe weather does not allow for much warning by the NWS, so being in a greater threat area such as this is about as much warning as you'll get. By the time the sirens go off or you get a warning on TV it most likely will already be too late, so y'all please be safe down there this afternoon.



SVR THREAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SERN AL...GA...AND FL
   PANHANDLE DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  PLUME
   OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE AIR -- HEATED/MIXED DIURNALLY OVER
   CENTRAL/NRN FL -- SHOULD ADVECT NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN
   GA/SC...NARROWING WITH TIME AS IT IS BRACKETED BY MORE MOISTURE-RICH
   GULF AND ATLC MARINE AIR.  THOUGH THIS FL PLUME MAY INHIBIT SVR
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...PRIND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT
   WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD PRIOR TO FROPA.  THETAE ADVECTION WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AROUND 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE.  LLJ
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE
   CONTEMPORANEOUSLY WITH INCREASE IN THETAE...SUCH THAT QLCS AND/OR
   SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ATLC COASTAL PLAIN
   PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE ACTIVITY SWEEPS OFFSHORE.


----------



## blood on the ground

GA DAWG said:


> Is it gonna snow tonight?



 get back under yer rock idjit


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> All the Mayans ever said was that we would be entering the fifth solar period, it was Al Gore or somebody like that, that turned it into a global disaster in hopes of making money off of it somehow.
> 
> Just a little breezy and brisk tomorrow, don't be such an Alice..



Guess I just got spoiled again with all the recent above avg. warmer weather in the 60's. 

Not getting above the 40's for highs & morning wind chills in the high teens & low 20's tomorrow is too much of a quick change & is going to take big adjustments on my part. Ouch!

Looks like the most intense storms along the Alabama/Mississippi state borders are the worse part so far according to your latest weather graphics & the ones right now on local metro TV weather maps.


----------



## Nicodemus

Thanks for the update, Hugh. We`ll be watchin` the sky and listenin` for the radio. Hopefully, no repeat of 10 years ago.


----------



## Keebs

Nicodemus said:


> Thanks for the update, Hugh. We`ll be watchin` the sky and listenin` for the radio. Hopefully, no repeat of 10 years ago.


 Got my radar up, but give me a heads up when it gets to you............ reckon I might better find Mud before it hits too.......
Oh and change that dang avatar, it ain't "Christmas-ie" enough!


----------



## Nicodemus

Keebs said:


> Got my radar up, but give me a heads up when it gets to you............ reckon I might better find Mud before it hits too.......
> Oh and change that dang avatar, it ain't "Christmas-ie" enough!





Avatar fits the mood.   I will holler if I can. I`m playin` Santy Claus at Chehaw tonight.


----------



## Keebs

Nicodemus said:


> Avatar fits the mood.   I will holler if I can. I`m playin` Santy Claus at Chehaw tonight.


that bad?
Thanks!
Tell the Missus I WANT PICS OF THAT!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Fox 5 Atlanta TV weather folks just showed significant damage in Mobile, Alabama from either straight line winds or a tornado which has not been verified.


----------



## EAGLE EYE 444

EAGLE EYE 444 said:


> MC,
> I just got off the phone with my girlfriend in Houston and she said all heck broke loose this morning around 1 AM Texas time.  The thunder and lightning and then the really heavy rains were coming down completely sideways due to high winds in the range of 40-60 mph with this line of storms.
> 
> While I was talking to her a few minutes ago, I clicked on the weather map in this forum and was surprised that these storms are showing up already in the western and northern sections of Georgia with the accompanying rains.  It is hard to believe that this system could move eastward that fast.  She told me that I better hold on to my jewels real tight because I might get blown away.  She said that it was a very violent and nasty line of storms for sure, and thankfully, it only lasted about an hour or so and then it calmed down with much colder temps behind it of course.



Also in the southeast area of Houston, I just found out that there are approx 30,000 people without power in that area now.  There are lots of trees down and some are across powerlines etc.  Also lots of damage to those large billboard type signs as well.  Traffic lights are out at several intersections there as well. 

One thing for sure, we don't need any of that stuff.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's an updated radar. When it get's closer to SOWEGA I'll  fire up my dual pole radar tool..


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's an updated radar. When it get's closer to SOWEGA I'll  fire up my dual pole radar tool..
> 
> View attachment 705478





That looks ugly.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> That looks ugly.



Lots of red, and it'll come through fast. You'll barely have time to duck. Now would be a good time to turn that ornery rooster loose in the yard..


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

          SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
          THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
          SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
          COASTAL WATERS

   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 600
   PM CST.

   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALBANY
   GEORGIA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 689...

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FORMING IN CORRIDOR OF
   STRONG PRE-COLD FRONTAL WAA OVER SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MID AFTN. WHILE ATMOSPHERE OVER
   CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND S GA ATTM REMAINS
   COMPARATIVELY STABLE RELATIVE TO POINTS W...SATELLITE DATA...SFC
   OBS...AND MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL
   OCCUR LATER TODAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND AS MODERATE
   SFC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID-LVL
   WIND PROFILES AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING LONG-LIVED STORMS...IT
   APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT TO
   WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WW. AREA N OF THIS WW WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING OR DURING THE
   EARLY AFTN SHOULD IT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ALSO
   WILL OCCUR IN CNTRL PARTS OF GA.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Lots of red, and it'll come through fast. You'll barely have time to duck. Now would be a good time to turn that ornery rooster loose in the yard..
> 
> View attachment 705481
> THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
> TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
> 
> SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
> THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
> SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
> COASTAL WATERS
> 
> EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 600
> PM CST.
> 
> TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
> TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
> 
> THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
> MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALBANY
> GEORGIA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  FOR
> A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
> OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
> 
> REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
> TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
> AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
> THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
> AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
> 
> OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 689...
> 
> DISCUSSION...BAND OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FORMING IN CORRIDOR OF
> STRONG PRE-COLD FRONTAL WAA OVER SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
> EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MID AFTN. WHILE ATMOSPHERE OVER
> CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND S GA ATTM REMAINS
> COMPARATIVELY STABLE RELATIVE TO POINTS W...SATELLITE DATA...SFC
> OBS...AND MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL
> OCCUR LATER TODAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND AS MODERATE
> SFC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID-LVL
> WIND PROFILES AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING LONG-LIVED STORMS...IT
> APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT TO
> WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WW. AREA N OF THIS WW WILL BE
> MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING OR DURING THE
> EARLY AFTN SHOULD IT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ALSO
> WILL OCCUR IN CNTRL PARTS OF GA.



thanks for posting this. I got family all over AL!!


----------



## Wade Chandler

Nasty up here on the mountain.  It's 41.4 after a low of 40.5 this morning.  Don't think we'll be seeing any storms with those temps.  Whatcha think on chances of flurries this evening?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> Nasty up here on the mountain.  It's 41.4 after a low of 40.5 this morning.  Don't think we'll be seeing any storms with those temps.  Whatcha think on chances of flurries this evening?



you might see a slight chance on the back side of all of this as the 20 degree temps squeeze out the last bit of moisture, but they will be flying sideways if they do happen. The wind is going to be ripping up there.


----------



## GA DAWG

Just how fast these winds gonna be blowing tonight and recken when that's gonna start?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> Just how fast these winds gonna be blowing tonight and recken when that's gonna start?



Soon. I just fired up the super duper dual pole tool and these cells are moving between 45 and 70 mph. The severe cells are lasting about three frames, or five minutes max, so there will be little or no warning with the cells moving at that speed and dropping hail, a vortex, and strong winds.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Looks like we're gonna get another taste of winter here the next couple days. Under a high wind warning until Saturday. It's pouring rain sideways right now, supposed to turn over to snow showers tonight, maybe an inch or two tomorrow with highs about 33*, 25-35mph wind with gusts to 60, and lows in the teens tomorrow night. Not gonna be a good day to stand on top of Clingman's Dome in a wet diaper and a necktie.


----------



## Keebs

NCHillbilly said:


> Looks like we're gonna get another taste of winter here the next couple days. Under a high wind warning until Saturday. It's pouring rain sideways right now, supposed to turn over to *snow showers tonight, maybe an inch or two tomorrow with highs about 33*,* 25-35mph wind with gusts to 60, and lows in the teens tomorrow night. Not gonna be a good day to stand on top of Clingman's Dome in a wet diaper and a necktie.


I STILL want you to adopt me!


----------



## blood on the ground

NCHillbilly said:


> Looks like we're gonna get another taste of winter here the next couple days. Under a high wind warning until Saturday. It's pouring rain sideways right now, supposed to turn over to snow showers tonight, maybe an inch or two tomorrow with highs about 33*, 25-35mph wind with gusts to 60, and lows in the teens tomorrow night. Not gonna be a good day to stand on top of Clingman's Dome in a wet diaper and a necktie.



thats what im talkin about!!! an make sure ya change yer dang diaper an take a lot of beer with ya,,, it will knock out the pain of the frost bite an hipatherme-a


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

See that little red triangle with a red line coming out of it? That's baaaad juju. Here's the skinny on it.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Salina, Kansas is getting pounded.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hooked On Quack said:


> Salina, Kansas is getting pounded.



With what?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Gonna start getting interesting around Albany / Leesburg in another 20 minutes or so.


----------



## Nicodemus

It`s gettin` somewhat bad here now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> It`s gettin` somewhat bad here now.



Yep, those cells are moving about 60mph. I imagine it's a bit dicey down there and will be for the next 30 minutes to an hour. Then it'll be just flat out windy


----------



## Nicodemus

Seems to have slacked up some. Got about and inch of rain, and a lot of wind, but not too bad yet. Hope that was the worst of it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Seems to have slacked up some. Got about and inch of rain, and a lot of wind, but not too bad yet. Hope that was the worst of it.



You should be done, but it'll be breezy straight through tomorrow.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You should be done, but it'll be breezy straight through tomorrow.





I can deal with that, and am thankful for the rain. Those high winds though, I`m not particular fond of.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> I can deal with that, and am thankful for the rain. Those high winds though, I`m not particular fond of.



I figure after this one gets through here there'll be an abundance of firewood for sale next week.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Where's the wind?


----------



## Jeff C.

Miguel Cervantes said:


> How far Norf you headin?



Northern Illinois, well, just north of Peoria about 45 minutes.


----------



## GA DAWG

Is the wind gonna blow or not?  Where dem snow flurries???


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I figure after this one gets through here there'll be an abundance of firewood for sale next week.





Just got power back on here. Calm, for the present.


----------



## Resica

NCHillbilly said:


> Looks like we're gonna get another taste of winter here the next couple days. Under a high wind warning until Saturday. It's pouring rain sideways right now, supposed to turn over to snow showers tonight, maybe an inch or two tomorrow with highs about 33*, 25-35mph wind with gusts to 60, and lows in the teens tomorrow night. Not gonna be a good day to stand on top of Clingman's Dome in a wet diaper and a necktie.



Was that in your plans?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Where's the wind?





GA DAWG said:


> Is the wind gonna blow or not?  Where dem snow flurries???



Just hold your mouse over the desired point on the map for a reading, or click on that spot on the map to zoom in.

http://hint.fm/wind/


----------



## GA DAWG

Nevermind! Hit here at 6:25. I thought. All them weather people crazy. Im going to load these hounds and go turn em loose. Then about a hunerd mile an hr gust hit me


----------



## shakey gizzard

Just rolled in!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just hold your mouse over the desired point on the map for a reading, or click on that spot on the map to zoom in.
> 
> http://hint.fm/wind/



i like it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That would be a CAD event you might see DDD and I refer to from time to time, or as we like to phrase it, a THunter Wedge.  It was the scenario I was describing for the 26th that would have lead to a freezing rain scenario for us, fortunately that wedge, or CAD prediction has eased off.
> 
> However, what is setting up is a worse scenario for severe weather than we'll have on Thursday. At present a massive low is forecast to come in across the Tn. Valley with a good amount of cold air pushing in behind it. It will be accompanied by a strong W to E jet and a very strong SW to NE flow and a ton of gulf moisture. All of the elements are in place for more of a severe Ga. event than Bama event, which is highly unusual. CAPE,CIN and LI are all perfect, the Crossover Shear is looking scary good for all kinds of severe weather from SOWEGA to N. Ga. for the 27th of Dec.
> 
> Keep your eye's and ears open, and maybe say a prayer that this forecast moderates drastically. We don't need a history making December event of this nature.
> 
> As far as what Matty E. is talking about for the beginning of 2013, well I'm not seeing it. What I am seeing is a strong blast out of Central Canada dipping all the way to the Gulf Coast (which is the exact opposite of a CAD event) bringing a good chance for snow to a good portion of N. Miss, NW. Al, Tn and NW NC. Currently there is showing a LPS just west of FL. that would keep us out of the weather due to what could be referred to as WAD, or warm air damming keeping that good cold air to give us snow out of Georgia.
> 
> Again, time will tell.



Still sticking by this one, primarily because the models are having fits trying to resolve the forecasts over the next 10-12 days. One thing is certain, starting on the 26th and running for about a week things will get interesting, one way or another.


----------



## Jeff C.

BrotherBadger said:


> Well, this blizzard has been a truckbed full of suck so far. 2 inches fell early in the night(pretty easy driving through it), and now the temp has risen enough to turn the snow into rain. That doesn't sound too bad......except the temp is expected to drop again in about 2 hours and go back to snow, and turn all that rain into ice.
> 
> New totals expected: 18-21 inches by late this afternoon. Whiteout conditions expected with up to 50mph gusts.
> 
> 
> 
> Where you headed?



I'm stopping short of you, just north of Peoria,Il., but my brother is heading up to Rhinelander, Wi., I believe it is.


----------



## Hornet22

Miglet, when this wind going to lay down? Imma not wasting gas driving the Z to work tomorrow to go to da tree in the afternoon if it's still blowin 90 to nuthin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Miglet, when this wind going to lay down? Imma not wasting gas driving the Z to work tomorrow to go to da tree in the afternoon if it's still blowin 90 to nuthin.



Gonna still be blowin about 9 or 10 mph about dark thirty tomorrow night. Still clipping about 6 or 7 on Saturday through Sunday laying down a little bit staying pretty much out of the WNW until Monday Morning when it'll lay down for sure.


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still sticking by this one, primarily because the models are having fits trying to resolve the forecasts over the next 10-12 days. One thing is certain, starting on the 26th and running for about a week things will get interesting, one way or another.


No No. We gotta change that up. Im supposed to be hunting deers then.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> No No. We gotta change that up. Im supposed to be hunting deers then.



You must be kin to RHBama...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Pretty cool archive graphic that I just realized one of my sites have. Just shows how average our temps have been. This graph is for the Winder wx station.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

Just lost power here!!.........Gonna shut the laptop down to conserve battery power till the lights come back on!!


----------



## blood on the ground

61 and calm in north paulding this morning. I also noticed the dogwoods were starting to bloom.


----------



## orrb

32 and windy  her in southwest paulding county this morning.  To bad there is no snow.


----------



## SGADawg

Looked at the post count on this thread and it said 666 here on the day the world ends.  I didn't know whether to open the thread or not.

41 and breezy here in Coffee County right now.


----------



## blood on the ground

SGADawg said:


> Looked at the post count on this thread and it said 666 here on the day the world ends.  I didn't know whether to open the thread or not.
> 
> 41 and breezy here in Coffee County right now.



and on my post  I also seen a dang black cat cross the road in front of me yesterday ...  its all down hill from here


----------



## shakey gizzard

blood on the ground said:


> and on my post  I also seen a dang black cat cross the road in front of me yesterday ...  its all down hill from here


----------



## Keebs

blood on the ground said:


> and on my post  I also seen a dang black cat cross the road in front of me yesterday ...  its all down hill from here


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Idjits.


----------



## JimC

St. Germain , WI. actually about 20 mins from the Michigan line. and man it's gona be COLD up there.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still sticking by this one, primarily because the models are having fits trying to resolve the forecasts over the next 10-12 days. One thing is certain, starting on the 26th and running for about a week things will get interesting, one way or another.



That's not allowed. I'm s'posed to be headed to south Jorjee hog huntin' next weekend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Got a report from a friend up in Sautee Ga this morning that they were having snow flurries.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> That's not allowed. I'm s'posed to be headed to south Jorjee hog huntin' next weekend.



You should be fine in SOWEGA, however gettin back home might be a tad interesting..


----------



## NCHillbilly

Well, the first day of winter is wintery here. 28* right now, the ground is white, snow is falling, and the temp is supposed to keep dropping all day into the teens tonight. The wind is absolutely howling down the ridgetops, calling for up to 70mph gusts today. I'm glad I'm down in a holler between two ridges instead of up on one of those high tops.


----------



## Unicoidawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Got a report from a friend up in Sautee Ga this morning that they were having snow flurries.



Been spitting on and off all morning. Wind is SCREAMING too.....


----------



## greg_n_clayton

28.3 here. 14 mph winds gustin to 30. Ground ain't white, but been snowin all mornin' !!


----------



## Backlasher82

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Got a report from a friend up in Sautee Ga this morning that they were having snow flurries.



It's snowing in Rabun county, has been all morning, but it's not sticking.  Guess the wind's blowing too hard.


----------



## Paint Brush

It is still spitting a few flurries here in Sautee and 32* The wind must be 30 mph dont know what the wind chill is dont have a chart with me to check it. Gotta get some wood on the porch. That hair cut I got yesterday might have been a mistake......


----------



## greg_n_clayton

Backlasher82 said:


> It's snowing in Rabun county, has been all morning, but it's not sticking.  Guess the wind's blowing too hard.



Backlasher.....you got the link for the weather station in the vineyard ??


----------



## blood on the ground

shakey gizzard said:


>





NCHillbilly said:


> Well, the first day of winter is wintery here. 28* right now, the ground is white, snow is falling, and the temp is supposed to keep dropping all day into the teens tonight. The wind is absolutely howling down the ridgetops, calling for up to 70mph gusts today. I'm glad I'm down in a holler between two ridges instead of up on one of those high tops.



can you post some pics please


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Sure is cold & windy today.  Forecasts report tomorrow morning to be colder than this morning in the metro Atlanta area.
















http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/chicago-braces-for-freezeup-hi/2916837 


















http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather 

Winter Weather Maps


----------



## DDD

I do not like what I am starting to see and read for what is coming Monday / Tuesday.  While snow will fly in Arkansas and upper Tennessee, it looks like a possible tornado outbreak for Alabama and possibly Georgia for Christmas Eve into Christmas day.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I do not like what I am starting to see and read for what is coming Monday / Tuesday.  While snow will fly in Arkansas and upper Tennessee, it looks like a possible tornado outbreak for Alabama and possibly Georgia for Christmas Eve into Christmas day.



Yep, I've been warnin these folks that it's gonna get hinky, one way or the other. I hope they're all paying attention when the time comes. Been watching the GFS jump back and forth, and if the timing works out, looks like from around Midnight on Christmas night to 9am on Wednesday could get real bumpy for most parts of Georgia.

Here's the convection map, but it doesn't tell near the entire story of what's heading our way.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012

   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE
   RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE EXIT
   REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD ASCENT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
   MAY ENABLE A SQUALL-LINE TO ORGANIZE AND QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. IT
   APPEARS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM SE TX
   EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA...MS ...AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. 

   AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
   WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. AN
   ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF A LINEAR MCS OR A CLUSTER OF
   SEVERE STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
   NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE
   CAROLINAS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT GREATER CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
   THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...THE
   MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL U.S. THIS
   COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID MS
   VALLEY AGAIN ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
   RANGE.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Wow, that's wild have chances of a tornado around Christmas.  Local TV weather news keep reporting good chances of rain Mon., Tues., & Wed.  Thx MC.  



Current U.S. snow cover map:  


http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentsnowcover_large.html


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I wouldn't want to be in E. LA., S. Ms. or S. Bama tomorrow evening into Tuesday.


----------



## GA DAWG

So southwest Ga is good starting bout wed morning?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> So southwest Ga is good starting bout wed morning?



Nope, this stuff will just be cranking up good in Ga around midnight the 25th and lasting until 9am or so on Wed. or later.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wouldn't want to be in E. LA., S. Ms. or S. Bama tomorrow evening into Tuesday.
> 
> View attachment 706172



Do you agree with the TV forecast concerning the severe weather west of atlanta? Brad Nitz mentioned the risk of severe weather saying the two risk were strong winds and heavy rain. He also mentioned he thought the tornado risk was about were you have outlined in black on the map you posted and would be well away from Georgia.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Do you agree with the TV forecast concerning the severe weather west of atlanta? Brad Nitz mentioned the risk of severe weather saying the two risk were strong winds and heavy rain. He also mentioned he thought the tornado risk was about were you have outlined in black on the map you posted and would be well away from Georgia.



That map is the NWS / NOAA severe weather map. Anywhere on that map covered in a percentage is subject to severe weather. The higher the percentage the better the chances and the more likely the stronger the storms. I consider anything over 2% worthy of paying attention to. Conditions will be right for anyone in this area 5% and above to have severe storms, winds and periods of heavy rain. 

Because of timing, temps and climatic conditions, the area in the 30% range does stand a better chance at the spinny things, but don't think they will be the only ones to get in on the fun.


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That map is the NWS / NOAA severe weather map. Anywhere on that map covered in a percentage is subject to severe weather. The higher the percentage the better the chances and the more likely the stronger the storms. I consider anything over 2% worthy of paying attention to. Conditions will be right for anyone in this area 5% and above to have severe storms, winds and periods of heavy rain.
> 
> Because of timing, temps and climatic conditions, the area in the 30% range does stand a better chance at the spinny things, but don't think they will be the only ones to get in on the fun.



Dang it! I was hoping not to have to run to the storm shelter especially on christmas night. Maybe it'll weaken some before it gets up this way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

TurkeyKiller12 said:


> Dang it! I was hoping not to have to run to the storm shelter especially on christmas night. Maybe it'll weaken some before it gets up this way.



Me too, but the current dynamics setting up will effect the formation of meso scale activity more than would typically be needed out of lift from daytime heating. It is what I refer to as pinch point horizontal dynamics (my wording for it, not the NWS) where we have a strong southerly flow colliding with a strong w or wnw flow all being squeezed together at the intersecting point of a strong Low pressure system. With moderately warm moist gulf air ahead of the cold air coming together. 

Very short lived tornado's can pop up with absolutely no warning and be gone just as quick. Straight line winds can be just as damaging as some of the EF1 tornado's, and in some cases more so.

I would rather this just be a cold rain event, but thus far it isn't shaping up that way.


----------



## Cowdog07

Glad to see we're getting back on topic, Thanks MC and Trip D
for the weather updates.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Me too, but the current dynamics setting up will effect the formation of meso scale activity more than would typically be needed out of lift from daytime heating. It is what I refer to as pinch point horizontal dynamics (my wording for it, not the NWS) where we have a strong southerly flow colliding with a strong w or wnw flow all being squeezed together at the intersecting point of a strong Low pressure system. With moderately warm moist gulf air ahead of the cold air coming together.
> 
> Very short lived tornado's can pop up with absolutely no warning and be gone just as quick. Straight line winds can be just as damaging as some of the EF1 tornado's, and in some cases more so.
> 
> I would rather this just be a cold rain event, but thus far it isn't shaping up that way.





I really dread this. To much like tomorrow, ten years ago.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> I really dread this. To much like tomorrow, ten years ago.



This stuff does seem to come around in 9,10 or 11 year cycles doesn't it?


----------



## Greene728

MC what time frame do I need to be concerned with in West central GA, Coweta Co. Sounds like middle of the night if I'm reading everything right.....And that stinks!!!


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This stuff does seem to come around in 9,10 or 11 year cycles doesn't it?





Sure does, Hugh. Hopefully no one wil get hurt. Or worse.


----------



## DDD

Did someone say they needed some rain?


----------



## DDD

This from the NWS on Christmas day / night...


----------



## GA DAWG

I ain't going down yonder and staying in a camper with tornados around. I'll just have to see how this transpires.


----------



## Greene728

^^^I sure do need some! Just none of those wicked twisty thangs!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Thanks for all the severe storm notices.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

For those of you that don't remember 10 years ago today, here's what Nicodemus is referring to.


----------



## BrotherBadger

Jeff C. said:


> I'm stopping short of you, just north of Peoria,Il., but my brother is heading up to Rhinelander, Wi., I believe it is.



Peoria is nice country, i drive through that area every trip down to Georgia. As for Rhinelander, that's WAYYY up in the northwoods. Beautiful woods surrounded by tons of lakes. Rib your brother a little bit and tell him to make sure not to be eaten by a Hodag(legendary "Monster" up in the northwoods of Wi) while he is in Rhinelander.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Around Jan. 4th, 5th and 6th, I-20 north. That's all I'm gonna say about that right now.


----------



## BrotherBadger

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Sure is cold & windy today.  Forecasts report tomorrow morning to be colder than this morning in the metro Atlanta area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/chicago-braces-for-freezeup-hi/2916837
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather
> 
> Winter Weather Maps



Storms like this happen once every few years up here. It's not super common, but we usually get one really good one every other year/every 3rd winter. Basically, if you have to drive(Blizzard is not an acceptable excuse to get out of work up here, unless the roads are impassable, which is pretty rare as the snow trucks are usually out during the entire storm), you do so very slowly and give the car infront of you lots of room. Wear a few extra layers when windy, and go about your business.

This picture below was from a few years ago, a bunch of kids from UW decided to make a giant snowball and leave it in the middle of the main road through town. Took about twelve of them to get it over there..... Or so i was told.......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

This situation for Christmas night into Wednesday has gone from severe to critical. You folks really need to pay attention to conditions as they develop tomorrow and wednesday.

Here's TWC's TORCON values for our area on those days.

Tuesday Night, Dec. 25-26

AL east-central, south - 5
AL northeast - 3
FL panhandle - 3
*GA north, central - 3 to 4*
GA southwest - 3
SC - 2 to 3

Wednesday, Dec. 26

FL east panhandle - 4
FL north - 4
FL central - 3
GA central, east - 4 to 5
NC central, east - 4
SC - 4 to 5
VA southeast - 2 to 3

And here's the new severe percentages map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all aren't paying attention to this warning. I'm gonna get DDD in here and see if he can knock some sense into y'all.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all aren't paying attention to this warning. I'm gonna get DDD in here and see if he can knock some sense into y'all.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all aren't paying attention to this warning. I'm gonna get DDD in here and see if he can knock some sense into y'all.





I am. Those who ain`t payin` attention, all it takes is one hit in the face from one of these, and you`ll be gunshy the rest of your life. It`s a ride like no other you`ll ever experience.


----------



## telco guy

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all aren't paying attention to this warning. I'm gonna get DDD in here and see if he can knock some sense into y'all.



MC, I'm listening


----------



## Nicodemus

Ironically, it was exactly this time of the mornin`, 10 years ago.  Eerie...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> I am. Those who ain`t payin` attention, all it takes is one hit in the face from one of these, and you`ll be gunshy the rest of your life. It`s a ride like no other you`ll ever experience.





telco guy said:


> MC, I'm listening



I'll phrase it this way. I don't get too concerned about your average severe weather, in fact I usually look forward to it. THIS is not your average severe weather, and has my hackles up just like the spring tornado outbreak from a couple of years ago. This is that type of situation and quite frankly has me worried for friend and family, as well as my own family because these winter severe outbreaks don't have the advantage of 50k cloud tops to provide lift and long lived on the ground tornado's. What these type of set ups are, are systems with all of the elements in place such as the Tuscaloosa tornado outbreak with the exception of the high altitude lift, which means it'll have a brutal westerly cold front pushing it into a warm air ESE flow provided by a HPS down over florida creating the perfect inverted "V" on the leading edge of the LPS that is so prevalent where ever such outbreaks occur.

Don't tornado's require lift as in high tops you ask? Typically in a spring time event, yes. But what is setting up  is a rare meso event that is very strong with the opposing temps and winds causing in essence a horizontal rotation that in cells that will frequently and briefly go vertical. It is more dangerous in some cases than a long lived spring time outbreak because there is very little or no warning when and where these vortexes will drop. 

To top it off, after the carnage of the meso outbreak has moved through your area then you'll have the straight line winds of the cold front pushing through, effecting large trees in rain soaked ground along with enough downburst effect to remove the roof's from small structures and do it's own kind of special damage.

Like I said a few posts ago, 2% is a severe category to be concerned about, 45% is insanely strong and we will feel the effects of it.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel - thanks for the updates and stressing how serious this can and will be. I just shared this page on FB for all my friends who are in these impacted areas. Hopefully they read and take this very serious.

So the 4-6th appear to be maybe eventful for us winter weather freaks?


----------



## georgia357

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all aren't paying attention to this warning. I'm gonna get DDD in here and see if he can knock some sense into y'all.



You definitely have my full attention.  I'm gonna be locked on the two weather posts for the rest of the day/night.


----------



## Cowdog07

I'm on board! keep the updates coming


----------



## Unicoidawg

Thanks for the update Hugh, keep'em coming.....


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Many thank-you's once again Miguel Cervantes.  You & DDD have better & more accurate info than other weather sources & give us details & graphics we will not see other places.


----------



## Jeff Raines

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Many thank-you's once again Miguel Cervantes.  You & DDD have better & more accurate info than other weather sources & give us details & graphics we will not see other places.



Amen!


----------



## Greene728

My eyes and ears are open fella's. I sure wish it would just go away though cause im dead in line with the higher percentages on the map......


----------



## Msteele

Thanks for all the updates and maps.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This situation for Christmas night into Wednesday has gone from severe to critical. You folks really need to pay attention to conditions as they develop tomorrow and wednesday.
> 
> Here's TWC's TORCON values for our area on those days.
> 
> Tuesday Night, Dec. 25-26
> 
> AL east-central, south - 5
> AL northeast - 3
> FL panhandle - 3
> *GA north, central - 3 to 4*
> GA southwest - 3
> SC - 2 to 3
> 
> Wednesday, Dec. 26
> 
> FL east panhandle - 4
> FL north - 4
> FL central - 3
> GA central, east - 4 to 5
> NC central, east - 4
> SC - 4 to 5
> VA southeast - 2 to 3
> 
> And here's the new severe percentages map.



Here's the web link details going with this map, but MC's summary is easy & quicker to read & get a grip on:  



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 

OR 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ 


SPC AC 240653

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
*NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK*
   1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS
   AND WCNTRL AL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS...

   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR
   PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
   IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD
   OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
   COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX
   COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
   UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. 

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
   TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
   0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
   350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
   GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
   MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
   INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
   BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
   EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
   WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
   FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
   WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
   THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
   ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
   COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1606Z (11:06AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> My eyes and ears are open fella's. I sure wish it would just go away though cause im dead in line with the higher percentages on the map......



I just talked to my BnL over in Bama. He lives in Oak Grove, where they repeatedly get bad storms and spinny things dropping from the sky. He was in a blind deer hunting down in Aliceville this morning and I told him he DOESN'T want to be there tomorrow. In fact I told him he might want to consider celebrating Christmas day in his basement. He had no idea what was coming their way for tomorrow.


----------



## lbzdually

Is this mainly for middle and south Georgia or is the threat for north Georgia there too?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

lbzdually said:


> Is this mainly for middle and south Georgia or is the threat for north Georgia there too?



Everyone needs to keep their eyes open during this one.


----------



## lbzdually

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everyone needs to keep their eyes open during this one.



So pretty much a repeat of the spring outbreak spring before last.  If that doesn't get you attention, nothing will.


----------



## br6ppc

You guys need to look at the latest update to come from Peachtree City. These guys are getting serious about this system. Check the media request at the bottom. Never seen them asking people to check their weather radios. 13 WMAZ. Never mentioned this during them12 noon broadcast.

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
1020 am EST Monday Dec 24 2012 

Update... 
quick update to add thunderstorms and rain to forecast grids today...mainly over areas 
along and south of I-20. Rap MUCAPE analysis continues to show 
values of 200-400 j/kg over the area. Radar and nldn cloud-to-ground data also 
indicate mostly elevated thunderstorms and rain but a little more vigorous than 
expected. While near term this will diminish as the weak short 
wave and front move to the east...will have to include convection 
through most of the day. Rest of forecast looks good. Favorable 
pattern for dense fog after midnight tonight. Have tweaked grids 
further to show this. Between the rain today...dense fog tonight 
..shra/thunderstorms and rain xmas day and severe qlcs event Tuesday night/Wednesday morning... 
Travel will be negatively impacted for a while! 


Media...could you please ask residents check the batteries in their 
National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radios or install a severe weather alerting app on their 
smart phones? Tuesday night could be a long night. Thanks. 


Snelson


----------



## mountainpass

D. Chandley didn't seem too concerned. He said possible rotation with this system with a slight risk of tornadoes.


----------



## savreds

Thanks for the updates DDD and Messican!  
NOT what you want to see over Christmas for sure. We'll keep our eyes open down on da coast!


----------



## biggtruxx

David chandley is a puppet.


----------



## Greene728

biggtruxx said:


> David chandley is a puppet.



Exactly. Dont listen to these guys on Ch.2. Seems every time something like this happens they turn a deaf ear until its right on us or 12 hrs or less. Gotta remember they dont want to cause a panic it seems until its a certain event, especially around Christmas.

Listen to MC and DDD. Very seldom are they wrong on events such as this...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

br6ppc said:


> You guys need to look at the latest update to come from Peachtree City. These guys are getting serious about this system. Check the media request at the bottom. Never seen them asking people to check their weather radios. 13 WMAZ. Never mentioned this during them12 noon broadcast.



So PTC is finally catching up with what DDD and I have been saying for a week. Is that what you are trying to convey?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

the percentage ranges have expanded. This is crazy stuff here folks.


----------



## Jeff Raines

Hey
That 30% is very close to me now


----------



## br6ppc

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So PTC is finally catching up with what DDD and I have been saying for a week. Is that what you are trying to convey?


I guess you could say that . If PTC is worried, everyone should be concerned. I trust you and DDD more anyway.


----------



## grizzlyblake

So, to be clear, this is expected for GA tomorrow evening through Wednesday?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Jeff Raines said:


> Hey
> That 30% is very close to me now



I know. I am not happy about the expansion of the worst areas at all.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

grizzlyblake said:


> So, to be clear, this is expected for GA tomorrow evening through Wednesday?



Tomorrow afternoon, evening, into wednesday morning.


----------



## Nicodemus

Gettin` some hard rain here.


----------



## grizzlyblake

Nevermind, this answered my question:
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-severe/severe-weather-tracker


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Everyone needs to keep their eyes open during this one.



Gonna be at mamanem's from mid morning till darkthirty. No interwbb, and no TV during get togethers. You got the digits if we need to here from you. PM incoming.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Gettin` some hard rain here.



Look at the Severe Weather Thread. I tried to warn you..



Hornet22 said:


> Gonna be at mamanem's from mid morning till darkthirty. No interwbb, and no TV during get togethers. You got the digits if we need to here from you. PM incoming.



Will do bro', as long as my lids are open.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

**** Just to keep down the confusion, and since this is a Severe Event, I will be posting further updates over on the Severe Weather Thread from here on out***


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> **** Just to keep down the confusion, and since this is a Severe Event, I will be posting further updates over on the Severe Weather Thread from here on out***



You are sooo effic..effecia... good.cheers:


----------



## mountainpass

biggtruxx said:


> David chandley is a puppet.



Well at 6:19 he predicted that Santa would be in Atlanta at 11:25, then about 6:40 he interviewed Santa, via Skype from the sleigh, and Santa said he would be there at 11:00. I mean if he's off that much in 20 minutes.....


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> the percentage ranges have expanded. This is crazy stuff here folks.



Whoa, it keeps grow into more of a potential beast.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

grizzlyblake said:


> Nevermind, this answered my question:
> 
> http://www.weather.com/news/weather-severe/severe-weather-tracker
> 
> Severe Weather, Tornado Outbreak Expected Christmas Day,
> 
> Wednesday, Dec 24, 2012, 3:54 PM EST
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-torcon-index
> 
> TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON Index
> 
> Dec 24, 2012, 8:11 PM EST
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TOR:CON Value Descriptions
> 
> 8+ Very high probability of a tornado
> 6 - High probability of a tornado
> 4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
> 2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
> 0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
> 
> The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10.  Multiply the value by 10 to get your chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location.  For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location (for example, southern Kansas).
> 
> 
> Monday Night, Dec. 24-25
> 
> LA south – 3
> MS south - 2
> TX upper coastal – 4
> Other areas – 1 or less
> 
> 
> Tuesday, Dec. 25
> 
> AL west-central, southwest – 6
> AL north -  2 or less
> FL panhandle - 5
> LA central – 5
> LA south – 4 to 5
> LA northeast – 4 to 5
> MS central, south – 6
> MS north – 2 or less
> TX east-central – 5 morning
> TX upper coastal – 4 morning
> Other areas – 1 or less
> 
> 
> Tuesday Night, Dec. 25
> 
> AL southeast – 5
> AL southwest, central, north - 4
> FL panhandle – 5
> GA southwest – 5
> GA central, north – 4
> GA southeast - 2
> SC west – 2 to 3
> TN extreme southeast – 2 to 3
> Other areas – 1 or less
> 
> 
> Wednesday, Dec. 26
> 
> FL central and east panhandle – 3 to 4
> FL north, west-central – 2 to 3
> GA – 3 to 4
> NC central, east – 5
> NC west – 3 to 4
> SC central, east – 5
> SC west – 3 to 4
> TN east – 3 morning
> VA south-central, southeast – 3 to 4
> Other areas – 1 or less



Thanks for the good info.  I'll embed some of the helpful graphics images above.


----------



## Resica

Guess we're gonna have a white Christmas. Picked up 2" this evening!!!


----------



## Beenthere&donethat

We're listening here Hugh. Thanks to y'all for all you do and Merry Christmas!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

BrotherBadger said:


> Storms like this happen once every few years up here. It's not super common, but we usually get one really good one every other year/every 3rd winter. Basically, if you have to drive(Blizzard is not an acceptable excuse to get out of work up here, unless the roads are impassable, which is pretty rare as the snow trucks are usually out during the entire storm), you do so very slowly and give the car infront of you lots of room. Wear a few extra layers when windy, and go about your business.
> 
> This picture below was from a few years ago, a bunch of kids from UW decided to make a giant snowball and leave it in the middle of the main road through town. Took about twelve of them to get it over there..... Or so i was told.......



That's a heckuva snowball in which I've never seen 'em that huge.  Glad that bad snow storms are not every year.  Good to hear the voice of experience up there in the great white North.

Your snowball photo reminds me of this monster snowball in the short car commercial below: 








Time:  33 sec.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Saw this on the Drudge Report . . . 



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-multistate-snowstorm-com/3045354 

OR 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/winter-weather

Major Snowstorm From Oklahoma to the Northeast

December 25, 2012; 8:42 AM













AND 


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-rages-tonight-arkansa/3175115 

Blizzard Rages Tonight: Arkansas to Illinois

December 25, 2012; 5:04 PM


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Was shocked to wake up at 5:45 this morning to 64 degree temps, but judging from the temp map, that'll be changing soon enough.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Good snow coming down up here. Big pretty flakes.


----------



## savreds

Glad someone is getting some!


----------



## ryork

Decent snow flurries in Bremen for about 1/2 hr.  Just spitting an tiny occasional flake now.


----------



## orrb

had some spits and sputters here in west paulding county near Rose's store


----------



## Sugar Plum

Just got a text from a friend in Macon, reporting snow flurries. Is that even possible?


----------



## blood on the ground

a couple a flakes in marietta, the rest is just light snow


----------



## Crickett

I saw a few flurries here in Cherokee Co earlier when I took the trash cans down to the street.


----------



## blood on the ground

shakey gizzard said:


>





Crickett said:


> I saw a few flurries here in Cherokee Co earlier when I took the trash cans down to the skreet.



i wish it would get hind end deep to a 10ft indian 

skreet?


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Looks like this monster system will continue causing problems for the mid-atlantic, east coast, northeast,  & midwest. 



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-multistate-snowstorm-com/3045354 

Major Snowstorm Moving into the Northeast

December 26, 2012; 9:05 AM


----------



## Wade Chandler

30.3 degrees, trees are white and the ground is getting white too.


----------



## blood on the ground

Wade Chandler said:


> 30.3 degrees, trees are white and the ground is getting white too.



that is very cool! post some pics if you can.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Can barely get cell service up her, but I'll try.


----------



## Hornet22

blood on the ground said:


> a couple a flakes in marietta, the rest is just light snow



Just got back from wallyworld, man that place was slap FULL of flakes. Got outside after standin in line for a hunert hours, and it was just drizzlin in the parking lot.


----------



## Priest

light snow flurry in Cumming


----------



## blood on the ground

Hornet22 said:


> Just got back from wallyworld, man that place was slap FULL of flakes. Got outside after standin in line for a hunert hours, and it was just drizzlin in the parking lot.



no kiddin that place is flake city.


brang on the snow!


----------



## zedex

Yesterday, we woke up to a hard rain, which is unusual as we normally see light rain start in Sept and run through late may/early June nonstop- almost never a hard rain. It helped to wash away the remnants of previous snowfalls.

By 11:30am, the hard rain turned to hard snow and stayed that way until around 6pm when it went back to rain. We had a little more than 2 inches of snow. 

As usual, when the rain started, it could not stop and by 2am, the snow had been washed away. It is still raining now.

 Our temps have climbed to the high 30's so far.


----------



## savreds

Where's da dang hillbilly... I know he's gotta have sum snow in da Smokies!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

It looks good to see this in my forecast, even if it isn't going to amount to anything;

TONIGHT:
Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain or snow showers in the evening. Windy. Lows around 30. West winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It looks good to see this in my forecast, even if it isn't going to amount to anything;
> 
> TONIGHT:
> Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain or snow showers in the evening. Windy. Lows around 30. West winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.



Miguel, when is the next shot of wintery weather for us.... In other words anything interesting in the next say 7 to 10 days.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

WoodsmanEd said:


> Miguel, when is the next shot of wintery weather for us.... In other words anything interesting in the next say 7 to 10 days.



It's really kind of dis-heartening when you look at the models. Everyone once in a while one of the runs will show a bit of cold dipping down when a chance at flurries, then the next run, it's all gone. It would be nice to see a good cold snap trending in the models, but so far, none of them seem to stick.


----------



## Patriot44

In Asheville for the night.  It is code outside.  Might even see a flurry or three in the morning.  This wind will cut you in half.


----------



## orrb

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's really kind of dis-heartening when you look at the models. Everyone once in a while one of the runs will show a bit of cold dipping down when a chance at flurries, then the next run, it's all gone. It would be nice to see a good cold snap trending in the models, but so far, none of them seem to stick.



Miguel or DDD, How are the 3rd and 4th looking for us? intelicast has rain and snow showers listed.  Do you think it will do anything?


----------



## blood on the ground

orrb said:


> Miguel or DDD, How are the 3rd and 4th looking for us? intelicast has rain and snow showers listed.  Do you think it will do anything?



Not good, they are both MIA


----------



## orrb

blood on the ground said:


> Not good, they are both MIA



I seen that, so sad. 

Just looks cold, but not really cold and wet enough.

can always keep praying.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

orrb said:


> Miguel or DDD, How are the 3rd and 4th looking for us? intelicast has rain and snow showers listed.  Do you think it will do anything?



Here's what NOAA's NWS is saying about rain for the next few days in Post #491 at the end of it is the rainfall forecast over in the severe weather forum thread in case this helps you any: 



http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=7500267


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Here's some helpful equipment for intense Winter weather with lots of snow . . .  



 


Track N Go 

1,058,278 Views 

 Apr 12, 2012


www.trackngo.com


----------



## panfried0419

Sleet bouncing on deck. That's odd.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Here's some helpful equipment for intense Winter weather with lots of snow . . .
> 
> 
> Track N Go
> 
> 1,058,278 Views
> 
> Apr 12, 2012
> 
> 
> [



Now that's a cool product!


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Now that's a cool product!


 Yeah it is!

Hey Shuggums!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> Yeah it is!
> 
> Hey Shuggums!!!!!!



Howdy Shuggumette...


----------



## panfried0419

What's up with this sleet not on radar. My therm reading 38


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> What's up with this sleet not on radar. My therm reading 38



Must be graupel..


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Howdy Shuggumette...


tingly!


----------



## panfried0419

Must be. Good sight to see


----------



## panfried0419

So I've seen 3 different forecast for my area(Athens/Jefferson) 2 say wintry mix after New Years one says mild and wet. What's y'all's take. Last night was the first visible falling frozen precip I've seen since 2011.


----------



## ryork

Have had some very light flurries, perhaps some Glenn Burns "graupel" mixed in with it too, in the last hour or two in Bremen, GA.


----------



## Jeff Raines

I went outside to feed the dogs a minute ago,didn't have no shirt on.....it felt like little ice pellets hittin my shoulders.


----------



## grunt0331

Hiawassee has flurries.


----------



## kracker

Sunshine and lollipops here.


----------



## panfried0419

Nevermind we got light flurries in West Jackson County.


----------



## savreds

My cousin just posted on Facebook that he had some snow just West of Cleveland!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

ryork said:


> Have had some very light flurries, perhaps some Glenn Burns "graupel" mixed in with it too, in the last hour or two in Bremen, GA.



Yep, a little bit ago when I went outside I could hear Glenn Burns' "graupel" hitting the ground & see it landing on my jacket.  Sure is cold outside today while the temps have been dropping all day at least since 10:30am & probably much earlier from the low 40's (Atlanta low this morning was 43) now to the mid 30's.  Local Atlanta TV weather folks are saying the coldest weather since last Feb. 2012 is moving in & expecting to drop to the mid 20's. 



Here's an almost botched ice rescue in Wrightwood, California just northeast of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest on a frozen lake where a dozen folks fall thru thin ice trying to rescue the 1st person who went thru the ice into the cold lake waters. 



http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/12/dramatic-ice-rescue-in-california-caught-on-tape/

Dramatic Ice Rescue in California Caught on Tape 

Dec 29, 2012 10:15am 










Sledding Accident Rescue in California Caught on Tape

 

Dec 29, 2012

Dramatic ice rescue in California caught on tapeadd to reading list. A sledding excursion turned into a rescue operation after a man fell into a frozen lake in Wrightwood, Calif.


----------



## GA DAWG

Here's a bit of frozen precipitation this eve.


----------



## panfried0419

Parents in Suches said its been spitting the frozen stuff since Christmas Night. It's cooolllldddd outside. Been putting up the Christmas decorations(spent half the time chasing them across the yard)


----------



## Crickett

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Yep, a little bit ago when I went outside I could hear Glenn Burns' "graupel" hitting the ground & see it landing on my jacket.  Sure is cold outside today while the temps have been dropping all day at least since 10:30am & probably much earlier from the low 40's (Atlanta low this morning was 43) now to the mid 30's.  Local Atlanta TV weather folks are saying the coldest weather since last Feb. 2012 is moving in & expecting to drop to the mid 20's.
> 
> 
> 
> Here's an almost botched ice rescue in Wrightwood, California just northeast of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest on a frozen lake where a dozen folks fall thru thin ice trying to rescue the 1st person who went thru the ice into the cold lake waters.
> 
> 
> 
> http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/12/dramatic-ice-rescue-in-california-caught-on-tape/
> 
> Dramatic Ice Rescue in California Caught on Tape
> 
> Dec 29, 2012 10:15am
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sledding Accident Rescue in California Caught on Tape
> 
> 
> 
> Dec 29, 2012
> 
> Dramatic ice rescue in California caught on tapeadd to reading list. A sledding excursion turned into a rescue operation after a man fell into a frozen lake in Wrightwood, Calif.


----------



## Steven Farr

It was blowing snow here at the house from about 3 to 5 this afternoon.  I took a ride up Russell Scenic before dark.  It was snowing pretty good up there about 6pm and the temp was down to 25.  The roads were SLICK so I turned around a few miles before I made it to the top.


----------



## panfried0419

Wife and I tried to go see folks in Suches. Made it just North of Turners Corner. Roads were slick. Pretty but dangerous.


----------



## savreds

Oh Lawd...  Kim is on the Weather Channel right now and she is SMOKIN'!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Oh Lawd...  Kim is on the Weather Channel right now and she is SMOKIN'!!!


----------



## mountainpass

Close to the house







http://www.knowpickens.com/pressrelease.asp?PressRelease=1492&***WEATHER ALERT***  Use caution on Hwy. 136 (Burnt Mountain Road) near Monument Road and Sunrise Ridge


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


>





remember the Weather Channel is for entertainment purposes only!


----------



## savreds

mountainpass said:


> Close to the house
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.knowpickens.com/pressrelease.asp?PressRelease=1492&***WEATHER ALERT***  Use caution on Hwy. 136 (Burnt Mountain Road) near Monument Road and Sunrise Ridge



That's purdy!


----------



## DDD

In the words of Uncle Si... Booyah!


----------



## jonkayak

When is this suppose to happen?


----------



## DDD

jonkayak said:


> When is this suppose to happen?



Thursday night into Friday morning!


----------



## jonkayak

Sweet! I'll keep my fingers crossed.


----------



## southerngentleman

DDD....what's your take on this storm....is it legit???


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

DDD said:


> Thursday night into Friday morning!



Looks like "Fri. 130104" on the map 
means "Fri. 2013-01-04" or "Fri. Jan. 4th, 2013.  

Thanks for the good news of more rain for Georgia to make up some for the previous drought.  Seems like we are in a regular rainfall pattern.  

Saw on the local Atanta TV news that for this month of December we are over 2+ inches ABOVE average for a change, to make it only the 2nd month of rainfall above average this year with 10 months below avg. in 2012.  I also saw them show a map with the polar jet stream dipping down south coming east all the way across the U.S., across southern California across northern Mexico & Texas & the Southeast including Georgia which they reported is part of the el nino effect where rain systems ride & follow the jet stream bringing lots of rain across the southern U.S.


----------



## DDD

southerngentleman said:


> DDD....what's your take on this storm....is it legit???



My take right now is much like the storm of 2010, there is so many ways this can go wrong and solutions like tonight's run are possible too.  

My belief is that the models are trying to get a hold on what is coming but due to lack of data until that system comes across Baja, California anything is possible.

We are still 6 days out so another 48 hours will give the models time to digest data and give more solutions.  This is not a slam dunk situation by any stretch.  I think the Mountains are in the best shape to see something out of this storm, that I feel confident about.


----------



## DDD

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Looks like "Fri. 130104" on the map
> means "Fri. 2013-01-04" or "Fri. Jan. 4th, 2013.
> 
> Thanks for the good news of more rain for Georgia to make up some for the previous drought.  Seems like we are in a regular rainfall pattern.
> 
> Saw on the local Atanta TV news that for this month of December we are over 2+ inches ABOVE average for a change, to make it only the 2nd month of rainfall above average this year with 10 months below avg. in 2012.  I also saw them show a map with the polar jet stream dipping down south coming east all the way across the U.S., across southern California across northern Mexico & Texas & the Southeast including Georgia which they reported is part of the el nino effect where rain systems ride & follow the jet stream bringing lots of rain across the southern U.S.





Thats a snow map not a rain map.

On that note, this thing could phase with an ULL over the Dakotas and pull north to Ohio and you get no precip whatsoever.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> My take right now is much like the storm of 2010, there is so many ways this can go wrong and solutions like tonight's run are possible too.
> 
> My belief is that the models are trying to get a hold on what is coming but due to lack of data until that system comes across Baja, California anything is possible.
> 
> We are still 6 days out so another 48 hours will give the models time to digest data and give more solutions.  This is not a slam dunk situation by any stretch.  I think the Mountains are in the best shape to see something out of this storm, that I feel confident about.



we can only hope but,like you said,its still 6 days out,lots can change befor thursday night friday morn.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

DDD said:


> Thats a snow map not a rain map.
> 
> On that note, this thing could phase with an ULL over the Dakotas and pull north to Ohio and you get no precip whatsoever.



Thanks for the kick in the head & waking me up this late at night. We've had so much rain lately but of course this is the "Winter Weather" thread.  After Monday in the forecast, I've been seeing 3 days of precipitation so I guess at some point that could include some kind of "frozen precip" this week.

Yep, your good map, covering lots of Georgia, bottom right side label does say "Snow Accumulation".


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> In the words of Uncle Si... Booyah!





DDD said:


> My take right now is much like the storm of 2010, there is so many ways this can go wrong and solutions like tonight's run are possible too.
> 
> My belief is that the models are trying to get a hold on what is coming but due to lack of data until that system comes across Baja, California anything is possible.
> 
> We are still 6 days out so another 48 hours will give the models time to digest data and give more solutions.  This is not a slam dunk situation by any stretch.  I think the Mountains are in the best shape to see something out of this storm, that I feel confident about.



There are only two things I see wrong with that map. The words Allen, and Huffman. He always likes to include us in on the NC snow bombs, and just can't seem to realize we aren't at the elevation much of NC is. Would I like to see it happen? Heck yeah!!!! Do I think it stands a snowballs chance in hades? Not really, the models are still too much in disagreement over this event really coming together. Although I commented briefly on it the other day, my restraint from further elaboration was because of the incongruency in models. The one thing I firmly believe about every model forecast....................time will tell.


----------



## savreds

DDD said:


> In the words of Uncle Si... Booyah!



Dang it... out of the snow zone again!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Dang it... out of the snow zone again!!!



I actually was in Savannah during the great blizzard in Atlanta. Saw it sleeting sideways and watched the NE'er blow most of the water out of the creeks, to the point that the marsh mud started to slide, taking docks with it. Dangdest thing I've ever seen.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I actually was in Savannah during the great blizzard in Atlanta. Saw it sleeting sideways and watched the NE'er blow most of the water out of the creeks, to the point that the marsh mud started to slide, taking docks with it. Dangdest thing I've ever seen.



People would be amazed at the effect that strong winds have on the rivers around here. This time of year we have a lot of N or NE winds and that is directly across the marsh and into my front yard. I'm constantly picking up trash that blows up out of the marsh, especially on a big spring tide!
I've seen a couple of times where we've had a strong West wind, 25-30 mph, and the river across the road stay dry for 6 hours or so.


----------



## panfried0419

I see models showing 60s by middle of next week


----------



## crackerdave

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A little pre-conditioning to help y'all prepare..
> 
> 
> View attachment 690334



A lineman's nightmare!


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There are only two things I see wrong with that map. The words Allen, and Huffman. He always likes to include us in on the NC snow bombs, and just can't seem to realize we aren't at the elevation much of NC is. Would I like to see it happen? Heck yeah!!!! Do I think it stands a snowballs chance in hades? Not really, the models are still too much in disagreement over this event really coming together. Although I commented briefly on it the other day, my restraint from further elaboration was because of the incongruency in models. The one thing I firmly believe about every model forecast....................time will tell.




Allen did not generate that snow map. The GFS did, I just pulled it down off his site.  It was the 12Z from Saturday.


However, just like I said, it would not take much for this to become a non-snow event and right now, that is what it looks like.

In fact, it could be a severe weather look.  One thing is for sure, the models are all over the place from one run next to the next and depending on which model you want to look at.

The Canadian has one solution, the GFS has another, the EURO has another and the NAM has another.  But they have all quit showing snow for Thursday / Friday.  However, the way it has been going, it might be 48 hours before the event if we are talking tornadoes or snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Allen did not generate that snow map.



I disagree. See the text in the red ellipse.



The 12/27/18Z run showed something similar, but not near as wide spread in GA as Mr. Huffman's map has, and by the 00Z run on the 28th it was completely gone. Your map was posted on the 29th which we can presume was when Mr. Huffman generated his fantasycast model, but it is nothing like any of the GFS snow cover maps for that time period. I can provide them if you would like.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I disagree. See the text in the red ellipse.
> 
> View attachment 707557
> 
> The 12/27/18Z run showed something similar, but not near as wide spread in GA as Mr. Huffman's map has, and by the 00Z run on the 28th it was completely gone. Your map was posted on the 29th which we can presume was when Mr. Huffman generated his fantasycast model, but it is nothing like any of the GFS snow cover maps for that time period. I can provide them if you would like.



Hugh,

It's not a fantasy model.  

Allen's site, when you look at any map, it says that.  Click any map on his site.  He doesn't go through hour by hour and make up modeling, plus, if he is that good at coloring, someone needs to hire him.  

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfs.html


These were individual members, not the operational run.  Make sure you find those individual members.  I think you are talking about the operational run.


----------



## Nicodemus

crackerdave said:


> A lineman's nightmare!





Not anymore...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Hugh,
> 
> It's not a fantasy model.
> 
> Allen's site, when you look at any map, it says that.  Click any map on his site.  He doesn't go through hour by hour and make up modeling, plus, if he is that good at coloring, someone needs to hire him.
> 
> http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfs.html
> 
> 
> These were individual members, not the operational run.  Make sure you find those individual members.  I think you are talking about the operational run.



So when not one single operational run within 24 ours before and after his individual member map (which he is copyrighting by posting it as his generation) show's anything close to what he is showing it is not magically considered a fantasycast?  Good luck with that. I'll stick by my opinion; which is he has regularly over estimated what Ga. will get in relationship to NC, year in and year out. I'll stick with the general consensus of the 20, not the fleeting pipe dreams of the one.


----------



## Hornet22

crackerdave said:


> A lineman's nightmare!





Nicodemus said:


> Not anymore...



Rub it in why dontcha


----------



## NCHillbilly

I left south Georgia in a t-shirt yesterday, got home to 3" of snow and 25*.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> I left south Georgia in a t-shirt yesterday, got home to 3" of snow and 25*.



Good, so now you'll quit yappin and start cookin so we'll have some outdoor cafe pics to look at?


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Good, so now you'll quit yappin and start cookin so we'll have some outdoor cafe pics to look at?



Hey, I have to come down there and go pork shopping every now and then to get some pigs to cook. Y'all have pork chops just running around in the woods down there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Hey, I have to come down there and go pork shopping every now and then to get some pigs to cook. Y'all have pork chops just running around in the woods down there.



And very few folks that know how to gig them...


----------



## higgy




----------



## Miguel Cervantes

higgy said:


>



You enjoying the rain yet?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Snow jam 2013, I'm ready!


----------



## Dustin Pate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You enjoying the rain yet?



Yes! Bring it on. Good to see the lakes actually filling up a little.


----------



## higgy

Yes sir. So far just been alil drizzle in my hood. Got yard bird smoking and a little fire going wait on the Dawgs. Waiting on some more purdy maps to see when this snow is gonna b here. Hahaha


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Anyone else seeing the frozen mixed precip in the forum's Southeast radar behind the fronts most of the morning up to the warmer parts of the day now in northern Mississippi??? 

I think forecasters are expecting that frozen mixed precip to pass north of most of Georgia, but I'd rather hear more about this from our resident forum experts MC & DDD.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Anyone else seeing the frozen mixed precip in the forum's Southeast radar behind the fronts most of the morning up to the warmer parts of the day now in northern Mississippi???
> 
> I think forecasters are expecting that frozen mixed precip to pass north of most of Georgia, but I'd rather hear more about this from our resident forum experts MC & DDD.



The low pressure systems are stacked up like trains pumping warm gulf moisture over our region, and also feeding the snow in the colder areas north of us. I don't see much of a chance seeing those colder temps threatening us. In fact, with the exception of right on top of NCHillbilly's house, most of the winter precip should stay well north of Tennessee.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Thanks for the good info once again.  I feel bad for NCHillbilly's place but hope they're prepared while they usually sound ready to handle anything even at those high elevations.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Thanks for the good info once again.  I feel bad for NCHillbilly's place but hope they're prepared while they usually sound ready to handle anything even at those high elevations.



That's what he gets for building a house up in the nosebleed section of the stadium.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The low pressure systems are stacked up like trains pumping warm gulf moisture over our region, and also feeding the snow in the colder areas north of us. I don't see much of a chance seeing those colder temps threatening us. In fact, with the exception of right on top of NCHillbilly's house, most of the winter precip should stay well north of Tennessee.



Hey MC, just wanted to do an evening check with you to see if your weather tools are still expecting the winter precip to stay north of Tennessee.  

A quick check of the forum section's "Weather Maps at a Glance" show significant coverage mixed frozen precip in Alabama's northwest quadrant of the top half of the state.  Since this afternoon & with the cooler evening setting in, the winter precip seems to be drifting further south.  I was hoping it would lift north more & not scrap thru the Atlanta metro area, but what's yours MC or DD's thoughts on this??? 

Thanks for any updates.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Hey MC, just wanted to do an evening check with you to see if your weather tools are still expecting the winter precip to stay north of Tennessee.
> 
> A quick check of the forum section's "Weather Maps at a Glance" show significant coverage mixed frozen precip in Alabama's northwest quadrant of the top half of the state.  I was hoping it would lift north more & not scrap thru the Atlanta metro area, but what's yours MC or DD's thoughts on this???
> 
> Thanks for any updates.



I'd say based on your map vs my map, and the surface temps, that whatever source you got your map from is on a tilt 3 or 4 angle and is showing upper level temps (graupel).


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I'd say based on your map vs my map, and the surface temps, that whatever source you got your map from is on a tilt 3 or 4 angle and is showing upper level temps (graupel).



Many thank-you's, Sir.  Your fine maps & graphics images showing mid 40's right behind the precip is good news & comforting.  Uh-oh, there's Glen Burns' favorite frozen weather term again.

Appreciate it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Many thank-you's, Sir.  Your fine maps & graphics images showing mid 40's right behind the precip is good news & comforting.  Uh-oh, there's Glen Burns' favorite frozen weather term again.
> 
> Appreciate it.



BTW, if you'd like to find temps or other info for particular regions that WeatherSpark site is free. Check it out here. Lot's of good tools in it, you just have to dig around a bit and get familiar with it. I have it set to my area for it's home page, so that's what you'll start with on the link, but you can change it to your area.

http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;a=USA/30656/GA/Bold_Springs


----------



## panfried0419

Looks like we've seen our taste of winter for a while. NOAA has March like weather for the next week or two.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

panfried0419 said:


> Looks like we've seen our taste of winter for a while. NOAA has March like weather for the next week or two.



Yep, nothing on the immediate horizon, plus, in contrast to an insanely active sun during our last snow bomb winter, this winter the sun is quiet as a mouse. It's really strange too. I keep hoping for alerts of strong incoming CME's so we can look forward to some change in this mundane winter pattern, but so far, no luck.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> BTW, if you'd like to find temps or other info for particular regions that WeatherSpark site is free. Check it out here. Lot's of good tools in it, you just have to dig around a bit and get familiar with it. I have it set to my area for it's home page, so that's what you'll start with on the link, but you can change it to your area.
> 
> http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;a=USA/30656/GA/Bold_Springs



Wow, thanks for another good web browser bookmark favorite for U.S. city surface temps which is a good double-check on the forum's Wunderground radar maps.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Wow, thanks for another good web browser bookmark favorite for U.S. city surface temps which is a good double-check on the forum's Wunderground radar maps.



It does much much much more than just temps. Play with the controls and options, you'll find all kind of goodies in there.


----------



## lbzdually

Grassy has been getting an inch or 2 here and there.  Another 10 degrees cooler down low and they could get blizzard with all this moisture.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It does much much much more than just temps. Play with the controls and options, you'll find all kind of goodies in there.



Wow, that was impressive to play around with.  Incredible to have that much info, graphs, & maps at our fingertips.  Sure beats trying to find it spread out in different places. You spoiled me now, but thx again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Ahight, two things I'm seeing this morning. 

#1 is a snow event for deep into Texas in two days. (remember that one for later)

#2 is around the 13th of this month, for Miss and Ala. (we'll see how that pans out, as it is too many days away right now)

If you want details on either of those, you'll have to do some digging.  

Hint, this link is free also;

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about


----------



## Hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ahight, two things I'm seeing this morning.
> 
> #1 is a snow event for deep into Texas in two days. (remember that one for later)
> 
> #2 is around the 13th of this month, for Miss and Ala. (we'll see how that pans out, as it is too many days away right now)
> 
> If you want details on either of those, you'll have to do some digging.
> 
> Hint, this link is free also;
> 
> http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about



That were NOT the kind of twista data I was lookin for.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Hornet22 said:


> That were NOT the kind of twista data I was lookin for.



You want Quacks polaroids?


----------



## Matt.M

Maybe I can kick start some Winter Weather for Atlanta with  picture of Breckenridge from last week.

It was a blast but definitely lacked snow cover above the trees.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> Maybe I can kick start some Winter Weather for Atlanta with  picture of Breckenridge from last week.
> 
> It was a blast but definitely lacked snow cover above the trees.


One  of my favorite places.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Matt.M said:


> Maybe I can kick start some Winter Weather for Atlanta with  picture of Breckenridge from last week.
> 
> It was a blast but definitely lacked snow cover above the trees.



Lookslike some good times.  Brings back great memories spending a week during late winter there in Colorado hitting Breckenridge, Vail, Copper Mtn., & Keystone which I think offered night skiing on lighted slopes in that area.


----------



## jonkayak

Matt.M said:


> Maybe I can kick start some Winter Weather for Atlanta with  picture of Breckenridge from last week.
> 
> It was a blast but definitely lacked snow cover above the trees.



I love that place. If it wasn't for Colorado's political climate I would move there tomorrow. Skiing always seems best in Febuary and March. Late March can absolutely rule with plenty of snow and warm enough for t-shirts while on the board.


----------



## Nitram4891

I'll add some snow to this thread.  18" of snow the day before I got there, another 10" during the 3 days on the mountain.  Powder was so deep you couldn't see your board while going down and heaven forbid you got stuck, almost impossible to dig out of.


----------



## blood on the ground

Nitram4891 said:


> I'll add some snow to this thread.  18" of snow the day before I got there, another 10" during the 3 days on the mountain.  Powder was so deep you couldn't see your board while going down and heaven forbid you got stuck, almost impossible to dig out of.



thanks pal! you really helped us all out by posting them dang pics!!! now we will never see snow down here! 

kidding ... very nice pics


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Nitram4891 said:


> I'll add some snow to this thread.  18" of snow the day before I got there, another 10" during the 3 days on the mountain.  Powder was so deep you couldn't see your board while going down and heaven forbid you got stuck, almost impossible to dig out of.



Wow, that's lots of mind blowing snowfall.  Thx for posting.


----------



## rjcruiser

Matt.M said:


> Maybe I can kick start some Winter Weather for Atlanta with  picture of Breckenridge from last week.
> 
> It was a blast but definitely lacked snow cover above the trees.
> View attachment 708215



Awesome place...haven't been there for years, but grew up skiing there.  Looks like Peak 8 from what I remember.  Spruce and Little Johnny's were the two runs I always remember...then going down the 4 o'clock run to get back to the cabin and ice skating on Maggie's pond.

We always went the week between Christmas and New Years as well and the snow always seemed to fall more in late Jan/Feb time frame than in December.


----------



## Nitram4891

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Wow, that's lots of mind blowing snowfall.  Thx for posting.



They already are up to 221" for the year or a little over 18 feet.


----------



## lbzdually

It's 41 here and raining, so I'm hoping it is snowing on grassy.


----------



## savreds

I just checked the 10 day forecast for us and it's supposed to be in the stinking mid 70's by next week!!!


----------



## crackerdave

What's it look like for the Frontier Festival?


----------



## jonkayak

Nitram4891 said:


> They already are up to 221" for the year or a little over 18 feet.



Is that pic Salt Lake City? The powder there is amazing.


----------



## cjones

Flying back from northwest Alabama late last night, temp was 33*F at ~3000' MSL in moderate rain showers.  No SLD and no snow at altitude, so must not be much cooler up above.


----------



## Nitram4891

jonkayak said:


> Is that pic Salt Lake City? The powder there is amazing.



Whistler, BC.


----------



## jonkayak

Nitram4891 said:


> Whistler, BC.



Haven't made it there yet but I hear it's on my short list.


----------



## Patriot44

savreds said:


> I just checked the 10 day forecast for us and it's supposed to be in the stinking mid 70's by next week!!!



BB BOOM!

Time for some fielding and batting practice.


----------



## Nitram4891

Any updates?  Maybe some cooler air coming back towards the end of next week?


----------



## savreds

Nitram4891 said:


> Any updates?  Maybe some cooler air coming back towards the end of next week?




X2

Yeah, I heard a weather "person" say that the whole country was in for a cool down in about 10 days or so!!!???


----------



## todd03blown

Matt East just posted some info on his FB account about the models changing a lot in the next 10 days. Quite the change actually, some very very cold temps and ice appearing at least how I interpret what they are discussing


----------



## panfried0419

I saw one site post 60s and 70s till end of month. Then saw one that shows ice next weekend. Confused again.


----------



## blood on the ground

todd03blown said:


> Matt East just posted some info on his FB account about the models changing a lot in the next 10 days. Quite the change actually, some very very cold temps and ice appearing at least how I interpret what they are discussing



im going to say FAT CHANCE that way ol man winter will come teach me a lesson!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> im going to say FAT CHANCE that way ol man winter will come teach me a lesson!!



You boys need to dig back through the posts on here and see what some of us were saying in the long range predictions.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You boys need to dig back through the posts on here and see what some of us were saying in the long range predictions.



I remember those! You guys are always spot on


----------



## GA DAWG

To early to get warm. This sucks.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Sure am having a blast with these very welcomed, rocking warmer temps.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> To early to get warm. This sucks.



Nope, normally it would be called the January thaw, but theirs nothing to thaw. What will happen is the Daffodils will get a good boost towards blooming as well as the buds on the trees will swell up real good (typical for this time of year) then we'll get hammered...


----------



## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, normally it would be called the January thaw, but theirs nothing to thaw. What will happen is the Daffodils will get a good boost towards blooming as well as the buds on the trees will swell up real good (typical for this time of year) then we'll get hammered...



Sometime around the 28th?


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, normally it would be called the January thaw, but theirs nothing to thaw. What will happen is the Daffodils will get a good boost towards blooming as well as the buds on the trees will swell up real good (typical for this time of year) then we'll get hammered...


IF it ain't tornados messing my deer huntin up. Its HOT Jan weather gonna mess up my turkey huntin


----------



## savreds

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Sure am having a blast with these very welcomed, rocking warmer temps.


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

This recent video below is for those missing the cold winter temps, snow, & ice . . . 



camp lake 1 1 13 ice riding



Published on Jan 1, 2013


----------



## Battlewagon

Benton, TN, weekend of the 19th, any decent chance of winter precip???


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Battlewagon said:


> Benton, TN, weekend of the 19th, any decent chance of winter precip???



Not right now there isn't.


----------



## shakey gizzard

I saw a cherry tree starting to bloom yesterday!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> I saw a cherry tree starting to bloom yesterday!



Okame Cherry's are usually the first to bloom, but typically it is February before we see that, accompanied by Daffodils. But then, how many times have you seen 70 degrees in January?


----------



## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> But then, how many times have you seen 70 degrees in January?



Counting today? One that I can remember.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hey DDD !!!! Starting to get alerts about an active sun spot rotating earthside so I figured I'd give the models a peek. Incidentally starting the 16th on out is seems to get a little more interesting for NE Ga and others in that time frame.

What are your thoughts.


----------



## savreds

Dude done gone AWOL or sumthin!!!


----------



## mewabbithunter

Where's DDD!

Go Falcons.


----------



## todd03blown

Seems like the weather folks are getting excited as the model runs are showing some snow down south for next weekend. Lots of chatter on Facebook today. Maybe N. GA gets in on some of the action?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> Seems like the weather folks are getting excited as the model runs are showing some snow down south for next weekend. Lots of chatter on Facebook today. Maybe N. GA gets in on some of the action?



Ya think?


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ya think?



Yes indeed


----------



## savreds

mewabbithunter said:


> Where's DDD!
> 
> Go Falcons.



I think he's laying low after some of peoples were getting their panties in a wad a couple of weeks ago... now we all have to suffer for it!!!


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey DDD !!!! Starting to get alerts about an active sun spot rotating earthside so I figured I'd give the models a peek. Incidentally starting the 16th on out is seems to get a little more interesting for NE Ga and others in that time frame.
> 
> What are your thoughts.



Any more weather mysteries you want to share in the long range forecast??? 



http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=6127&Itemid=179 

ATLANTA'S TOP TEN BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS

1.) 7.9"......March 24, 1983 

2.) 5.8"......January 12-13, 1982 (became known as "Snowjam 82') 

3.) 5.0"......January 18-19, 1992 

4.) 4.6"......January 2-3, 2002 

5.) 4.4"......February 17-18, 1979 (all sleet/ ice pellets) 

6.) 4.2"......March 13, 1993 ("Blizzard of 93") 

7.) 4.2"......January 7-8, 1988 (sleet/ ice) 

8.) 4.0"......March 10, 1960 

9.) 3.9"......February 1952 

10.) 3.6"....January 21-22, 1987


----------



## shakey gizzard

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Any more weather mysteries you want to share in the long range forecast???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=6127&Itemid=179
> 
> ATLANTA'S TOP TEN BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS
> 
> 1.) 7.9"......March 24, 1983
> 
> 2.) 5.8"......January 12-13, 1982 (became known as "Snowjam 82')
> 
> 3.) 5.0"......January 18-19, 1992
> 
> 4.) 4.6"......January 2-3, 2002
> 
> 5.) 4.4"......February 17-18, 1979 (all sleet/ ice pellets)
> 
> 6.) 4.2"......March 13, 1993 ("Blizzard of 93")
> 
> 7.) 4.2"......January 7-8, 1988 (sleet/ ice)
> 
> 8.) 4.0"......March 10, 1960
> 
> 9.) 3.9"......February 1952
> 
> 10.) 3.6"....January 21-22, 1987



Nice diggin!Im ready fer snow jam13!


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hey DDD !!!! Starting to get alerts about an active sun spot rotating earthside so I figured I'd give the models a peek. Incidentally starting the 16th on out is seems to get a little more interesting for NE Ga and others in that time frame.
> 
> What are your thoughts.



It changes from model run to model run.  Right now I think the cold air spilling out of Canada may push the system everyone is all excited about south.   So we get left with cold air and Tampa is in the rain.   Time will have to tell... 



savreds said:


> Dude done gone AWOL or sumthin!!!





mewabbithunter said:


> Where's DDD!
> 
> Go Falcons.





savreds said:


> I think he's laying low after some of peoples were getting their panties in a wad a couple of weeks ago... now we all have to suffer for it!!!



There is a certain poster that seems to think that Accuweather and the reposting of their maps is what this thread is for.    It's not.  

Miguel and I look at raw data, different models, listen to people smarter than us in the weather department.  Miguel likes Spann I have a few up in North Carolina I like, Matthew East is one of my favorites. 

However, I don't post his daily web video here, nor do I hang my hat on every word he says.

Anyone can copy and paste pretty pictures and maps from other weather sources and act like they are the weather authority.   Accuweather is the biggest joke in the weather community... next to the weather channel trying to make their own tornado index and naming winter storms.  

So I am not about to waste my time posting here just to have someone else come along and post 50 pictures from 25 websites and talk like they are all that in the winter wx department.



BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Any more weather mysteries you want to share in the long range forecast???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=3&topicid=6127&Itemid=179
> 
> ATLANTA'S TOP TEN BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS
> 
> 1.) 7.9"......March 24, 1983
> 
> 2.) 5.8"......January 12-13, 1982 (became known as "Snowjam 82')
> 
> 3.) 5.0"......January 18-19, 1992
> 
> 4.) 4.6"......January 2-3, 2002
> 
> 5.) 4.4"......February 17-18, 1979 (all sleet/ ice pellets)
> 
> 6.) 4.2"......March 13, 1993 ("Blizzard of 93")
> 
> 7.) 4.2"......January 7-8, 1988 (sleet/ ice)
> 
> 8.) 4.0"......March 10, 1960
> 
> 9.) 3.9"......February 1952
> 
> 10.) 3.6"....January 21-22, 1987


----------



## TurkeyKiller12

Uhh ohh! It just hit the fan in the weather department.


----------



## crackerdave

I've got a full rack of good, seasoned white oak and plenty of propane and propane accessories...._brang it!_


----------



## BornToHuntAndFish

DDD said:


> It changes from model run to model run.  Right now I think the cold air spilling out of Canada may push the system everyone is all excited about south.   So we get left with cold air and Tampa is in the rain.   Time will have to tell...
> 
> 
> 
> There is a certain poster that seems to think that Accuweather and the reposting of their maps is what this thread is for.    It's not.
> 
> Miguel and I look at raw data, different models, listen to people smarter than us in the weather department.  Miguel likes Spann I have a few up in North Carolina I like, Matthew East is one of my favorites.
> 
> However, I don't post his daily web video here, nor do I hang my hat on every word he says.
> 
> Anyone can copy and paste pretty pictures and maps from other weather sources and act like they are the weather authority.   Accuweather is the biggest joke in the weather community... next to the weather channel trying to make their own tornado index and naming winter storms.
> 
> So I am not about to waste my time posting here just to have someone else come along and post 50 pictures from 25 websites and talk like they are all that in the winter wx department.



Sorry about that.  I'm like anyone else on the forum just looking for more, helpful, interesting information that seems to be from a decent respected trusted source which appears to be consistent with what most of us are hearing on TV & radio news weather reports that may benefit others.  Everyone knows I am no weather authority in no weather department.  If something I find & post from web searches in hopes that it appears to be helpful & useful but others find it to be wrong, then let me or someone else know so we can remove it right away.  All of us forum members that I'm aware of would prefer to hear from DDD & Miguel Cervantes about the weather conditions & forecasts.  I have a blast learning from anyone & anything I can.  Sorry if I've embedded too many graphics images in the past that I stumbled across that I thought would benefit or interest others, but I will continue to reign it in & try to cut it down.  Hope folks will draw it to my attention when it's too much & I will do all I can to do better.  Appreciate folks patience with me.  Thanks for letting me know.


----------



## Greene728

I saw this one coming from a mile away. Not to cast stones here, but, theres been quite a few threads hijaked per say with these graphics and forecasts that are readily available to basically anyone. They've even popped up in the LFTT threads....


----------



## Holton

shakey gizzard said:


> Nice diggin!Im ready fer snow jam13!





Me too!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

BornToHuntAndFish said:


> Sorry about that.  I'm like anyone else on the forum just looking for more, helpful, interesting information that seems to be from a decent respected trusted source which appears to be consistent with what most of us are hearing on TV & radio news weather reports that may benefit others.  Everyone knows I am no weather authority in no weather department.  If something I find & post from web searches in hopes that it appears to be helpful & useful but others find it to be wrong, then let me or someone else know so we can remove it right away.  All of us forum members that I'm aware of would prefer to hear from DDD & Miguel Cervantes about the weather conditions & forecasts.  I have a blast learning from anyone & anything I can.  Sorry if I've embedded too many graphics images in the past that I stumbled across that I thought would benefit or interest others, but I will continue to reign it in & try to cut it down.  Hope folks will draw it to my attention when it's too much & I will do all I can to do better.  Appreciate folks patience with me.  Thanks for letting me know.



Don't sweat it bro'. Heck when I started posting on GON I was doing the c&p of wunderground.com maps. It wasn't until I started digging and getting some tips from DDD and BigOx as we shared info and talked on the phone that I really found some of the other resources out there that gave me the data / models I was looking for.

I've given you a couple of sites to get "raw data" from, and if you want some instruction or have questions about reading them then feel free to give me a call anytime. Just pm me when you're ready and I'll pass my digits along to you.


----------



## PappyHoel

Wintery mix on Thursday ?????  Talked about it on the radio.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Wintery mix on Thursday ?????  Talked about it on the radio.



Check out post 891, it was eluded to without using those words. Didn't wanna jinx it ya know.


----------



## panfried0419

Usually this warm January weather is always precursor to a bad ice storm.


----------



## blood on the ground

panfried0419 said:


> Usually this warm January weather is always precursor to a bad ice storm.



 no cussin on da forum


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks like Northern Mississippi may get their shot at the icy stuff over the next few days. Our best chance may not show up until around the 25th.


----------



## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Our best chance may not show up until around the 25th.



Nah... that's about a week or so to early. It'll be the last two or three weeks of Feb or the first week of March cause that's when we're having our big annual Maintanence outage and I'll be working 12+ hour days with no days off to get to come up to enjoy it! 
That's when it'll happen!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> Nah... that's about a week or so to early. It'll be the last two or three weeks of Feb or the first week of March cause that's when we're having our big annual Maintanence outage and I'll be working 12+ hour days with no days off to get to come up to enjoy it!
> That's when it'll happen!!!



Whether you're an attorney or not, it is always a safe bet to practice Murphy's Law.


----------



## DDD

When its warm like this in January the rubber band has to snap.


----------



## Nitram4891

DDD said:


> When its warm like this in January the rubber band has to snap.



So when are we getting the analysis?


----------



## savreds

Nitram4891 said:


> So when are we getting the analysis?



That WAS the analysis!!!


----------



## Nitram4891

Well here is what the GFS is saying.  Temps are marginal though and this could very well end up being mostly cold rain.


----------



## Nitram4891

Current discussion out of NWS for our region:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION. THE H5 LOW
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL FINALLY FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND A FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY AND EXIT THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRECIP EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THE
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH GA COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING AND WILL THEREFORE ADD THIS TO NORTH
GA THURSDAY NIGHT.


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like Northern Mississippi may get their shot at the icy stuff over the next few days. Our best chance may not show up until around the 25th.


 Tha 25th?? Dang. Big coonhunt that weekend. Im sure it will do something


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> Well here is what the GFS is saying.  Temps are marginal though and this could very well end up being mostly cold rain.





Nitram4891 said:


> Current discussion out of NWS for our region:
> 
> LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
> MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION. THE H5 LOW
> THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL FINALLY FILL AND LIFT
> NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND A FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
> THURSDAY AND EXIT THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
> TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
> 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
> FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
> CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRECIP EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THE
> COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH GA COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHT
> RAIN/LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING AND WILL THEREFORE ADD THIS TO NORTH
> GA THURSDAY NIGHT.



I find it humorous that the NWS is stating that all models are in agreement, when there is a drastic swing in snow/winter precip models every 6 hours. Just wait for the 18z run and see what it shows. 

I think the devil messing with this 12z run is the difference between the actual temps and the theta-e temps. With an HPS parked right off of the coast of Ga/SC in this run it is understandable how such confusion could be born with such a widespread temp diff between the two.  If we see the temp extremes between the actual and theta-e close some on the 18z run I'd be more willing to start buying into this scenario, but for right now all I would be willing to gamble on is some ice on the exposed elevated surfaces in extreme NW Ga. 

I do look for a better resolution between the models with the LPS finally moves out into the Atlantic, allowing this stationary front to break down. I imagine that the 01/16/13 runs will give us a more credible solution for what to expect.


----------



## orrb

DDD please dont leave us.  You Are the best weather man around.  Please keep up the good work and dont let anyone run you away.


----------



## rospaw

DDD kids are asking about thur up here in Ellijay........ What is your crystal ball saying?


----------



## Nitram4891

Still really warm at surface and will depend on how strong this upper level low is.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> Still really warm at surface and will depend on how strong this upper level low is.



What will "depend on how strong this upper level low is?"


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What will "depend on how strong this upper level low is?"



Is this a new low in weather prediction?


----------



## blood on the ground

rospaw said:


> DDD kids are asking about thur up here in Ellijay........ What is your crystal ball saying?



you have to ask the messican! DDD up an quit posting in here


----------



## todd03blown

The snow word is now all over the local news....LOL!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> Is this a new low in weather prediction?



No it was a question in response to an untargeted incomplete statement by someone else in order to gain clarfication as to what in tarnation they were talkin about.



blood on the ground said:


> you have to ask the messican! DDD up an quit posting in here



When there's something to post about he'll be here with bells on.


----------



## Nitram4891

From FFC:

..WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY
MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD
BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW
COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT
APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE
I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA.

AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.


----------



## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No it was a question in response to an untargeted incomplete statement by someone else in order to gain clarfication as to what in tarnation they were talkin about.
> 
> 
> 
> When there's something to post about he'll be here with bells on.



I'm just trying to post up some information for anyone interested, I don't think I've made any predictions, or pretended to know what I was talking about.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> Still really warm at surface and will depend on how strong this upper level low is.





Nitram4891 said:


> I'm just trying to post up some information for anyone interested, I don't think I've made any predictions, or pretended to know what I was talking about.



Not saying you did or were, just trying to figure out what the above quoted post belonged to.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> No it was a question in response to an untargeted incomplete statement by someone else in order to gain clarfication as to what in tarnation they were talkin about.
> 
> 
> 
> When there's something to post about he'll be here with bells on.



I know, just havin a little fun with it.. keep up the good work brother


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> I know, just havin a little fun with it.. keep up the good work brother



Work!!!! Pfffffffffffft. When it becomes work I'll quit..


----------



## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not saying you did or were, just trying to figure out what the above quoted post belonged to.



That we might finally see a snow shower around ATL this winter.


----------



## NCHillbilly

They've been hollering snow Thursday night here for over a week.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> They've been hollering snow Thursday night here for over a week.



I bet you can't wait...


----------



## GA DAWG

Is it gonna rain?


----------



## klfutrelle

Looks like wintery weather is heading this way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Cold chasing moisture usually never works out, but cold sliding under the moisture makes for a big icy mess. It'll be interesting to see exactly how the timing of this works out, and who gets what.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet you can't wait...



Whee! I love driving 80 miles a day on slick roads that are full of jack-knifing tractor trailers and idjits that think 4WD means push the button and drive at normal speed. 
This flooding stuff is cool too, we've gotten over 6 inches of rain in the last two days, the river is about over the road below my house. Why not a good blizzard or ice storm to change it up a little?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Cold chasing moisture usually never works out, but cold sliding under the moisture makes for a big icy mess. It'll be interesting to see exactly how the timing of this works out, and who gets what.
> 
> View attachment 710501



What about wrap around moistue after the cold is in place?


----------



## GA DAWG

It ain't gonna do nothing. If it was. DDD would be here.


----------



## orrb

I think maybe DDD is not happy.  I wish he would come back.  Know one can replace him.


----------



## Dustin Pate

orrb said:


> I think maybe DDD is not happy.  I wish he would come back.  Know one can replace him.



I believe he has a different job now and can't spend as much time playing here as he once did. I think he mentioned that back in the pages of this thread somewhere.


----------



## Robbie101

Dustin Pate said:


> I believe he has a different job now and can't spend as much time playing here as he once did. I think he mentioned that back in the pages of this thread somewhere.



He did.  

But the Messican and the other guys are filling in nicely.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> It ain't gonna do nothing. If it was. DDD would be here.



More truth to that than you know.


----------



## xjd33x

Snow sleet rain or hail but for crying out loud PLEASE stop raining!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

xjd33x said:


> Snow sleet rain or hail but for crying out loud PLEASE stop raining!



You really need to be careful what you ask for.

Interesting set up starting around noon tomorrow for folks in central and north alabama and it just expands from there across wnw ga and over into ne ga. This one is all about timing and temps, oh and someone did mention wrap around moisture . We'll just have to wait and see how this shakes out, but one thing is for sure, I wouldn't wanna be up on that big ol' hill with NCHillbilly come Friday morning.


----------



## klfutrelle

I'm thinking of driving up to the northeast ga mountains or maybe Gatlingburg tomorrow. Who's with me? Try out the GMC Sierra 2500 4x4.


----------



## topfuelgirl

We are heading to Pigeon Forge Friday for a wedding in Gatlinburg on Saturday. I hope to see snow when we get there around noon on Friday!!


----------



## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wouldn't wanna be up on that big ol' hill with NCHillbilly come Friday morning.



 Hope he's got his shovel ready.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Grrrrrr.


----------



## Dustin Pate

Here is a map James Spann put out this morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Dustin Pate said:


> Here is a map James Spann put out this morning.



I really like James and think he is top of the list when it comes to STS weather, but I just don't see how we'll get much of anything more than a dusting on the ground as warm as the ground temps are. It's been a bunch colder for a few days over in Bama, so they might see a little more, but I wouldn't expect to see much except on elevated surfaces or much higher elevations. 

Timing is still going to be critical for us to see much more than a flurry out of this one.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I really like James and think he is top of the list when it comes to STS weather, but I just don't see how we'll get much of anything more than a dusting on the ground as warm as the ground temps are. It's been a bunch colder for a few days over in Bama, so they might see a little more, but I wouldn't expect to see much except on elevated surfaces or much higher elevations.
> 
> Timing is still going to be critical for us to see much more than a flurry out of this one.



Unless something changes, I think this is gonna be a very elevation-dependant event here in my neck of the woods, much like the Halloween/Sandy snowstorm. It's been really warm here, the ground is wet, and cloud cover will likely keep us above freezing tonight with temps gradually falling to below freezing tomorrow afternoon. I think higher elevations will get a pile of snow, and in the valleys, probably a couple-few inches wet snow mostly on grass and raised surfaces. Our local weather guy, who amazingly enough is usually right on the money, has his models showing the majority of the moisture coming through before the temps hit freezing. It'll be interesting to see what develops between now and then. This is a similar setup to the Sandy snow, except for being frontal instead of cyclonic in nature. I'm right under 3,000', and we wound up with 3-4" out of that, but places in my county at higher elevations had three feet or more. The temp is supposed to hit around the ten-degree mark tomorrow night, though, so whatever falls after late afternoon is gonna stay there a while.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Unless something changes, I think this is gonna be a very elevation-dependant event here in my neck of the woods, much like the Halloween/Sandy snowstorm. It's been really warm here, the ground is wet, and cloud cover will likely keep us above freezing tonight with temps gradually falling to below freezing tomorrow afternoon. I think higher elevations will get a pile of snow, and in the valleys, probably a couple-few inches wet snow mostly on grass and raised surfaces. Our local weather guy, who amazingly enough is usually right on the money, has his models showing the majority of the moisture coming through before the temps hit freezing. It'll be interesting to see what develops between now and then. This is a similar setup to the Sandy snow, except for being frontal instead of cyclonic in nature. I'm right under 3,000', and we wound up with 3-4" out of that, but places in my county at higher elevations had three feet or more. The temp is supposed to hit around the ten-degree mark tomorrow night, though, so whatever falls after late afternoon is gonna stay there a while.



I think you're pretty accurate there. There is just one thing missing. JT does the "live from the tree" or LFTT threads when hunting. I think it is only fair, if you are any kind of mod at all, that you go up on the platform on Clingman's Dome tomorrow and do a LFTD or "Live from the dome" 24 hour streaming video cast for us.


----------



## Nitram4891

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think you're pretty accurate there. There is just one thing missing. JT does the "live from the tree" or LFTT threads when hunting. I think it is only fair, if you are any kind of mod at all, that you go up on the platform on Clingman's Dome tomorrow and do a LFTD or "Live from the dome" 24 hour streaming video cast for us.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Only if I can go dressed only in a wet diaper and a necktie.


----------



## GA DAWG

NCHillbilly said:


> Only if I can go dressed only in a wet diaper and a necktie.


Do it lol.


----------



## blood on the ground

we need thunder snow!!! 18 inches of it!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Only if I can go dressed only in a wet diaper and a necktie.



I don't care, as long as you're videoing the weather and not yourself. Quack may disagree with me, but I'm betting the general membership is not.


----------



## DDD

Guys, quick posting.  I will post more tonight.

If you go back and read the threads from the ULL snow we had back in 2010, you will see where I talk about how unpredictable these things can be.

2 things about this ULL.

1.  It could flat out hammer the mountains.    I am talking 5-8" of snow.  Just depends on the track of the ULL.

2.  The deformation band that sets  up behind the ULL is quick but out right HEAVY snow.  I don't care if the ground is warm, if you are underneath that deformation band, it can dump out 4" of snow in an hour.  Just ask Athens back in 2010.  They probably got 12" of snow in 3 hours.  4 " melted and 8" shut the city down.


One other thing, the models are having issues with this thing even as I sit here and type.  The NAM of all things has been leading the way and the GFS has come around to its thinking.  However the last run of the GFS was a little warmer and faster in it's travels.


I have not even read back to see if Miguel posted it or not, but the temp maps for next week are staggering.  Make sure you got some firewood and extra $$$ to pay the gas bill with.  

Late January and February maybe a fun ride.   

See yall tonight.


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> Guys, quick posting.  I will post more tonight.
> 
> If you go back and read the threads from the ULL snow we had back in 2010, you will see where I talk about how unpredictable these things can be.
> 
> 2 things about this ULL.
> 
> 1.  It could flat out hammer the mountains.    I am talking 5-8" of snow.  Just depends on the track of the ULL.
> 
> 2.  The deformation band that sets  up behind the ULL is quick but out right HEAVY snow.  I don't care if the ground is warm, if you are underneath that deformation band, it can dump out 4" of snow in an hour.  Just ask Athens back in 2010.  They probably got 12" of snow in 3 hours.  4 " melted and 8" shut the city down.
> 
> 
> One other thing, the models are having issues with this thing even as I sit here and type.  The NAM of all things has been leading the way and the GFS has come around to its thinking.  However the last run of the GFS was a little warmer and faster in it's travels.
> 
> 
> I have not even read back to see if Miguel posted it or not, but the temp maps for next week are staggering.  Make sure you got some firewood and extra $$$ to pay the gas bill with.
> 
> Late January and February maybe a fun ride.
> 
> See yall tonight.


----------



## Nicodemus

Bring on the cold. I`m ready for some real winter.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> Guys, quick posting.  I will post more tonight.
> 
> If you go back and read the threads from the ULL snow we had back in 2010, you will see where I talk about how unpredictable these things can be.
> 
> 2 things about this ULL.
> 
> 1.  It could flat out hammer the mountains.    I am talking 5-8" of snow.  Just depends on the track of the ULL.
> 
> 2.  The deformation band that sets  up behind the ULL is quick but out right HEAVY snow.  I don't care if the ground is warm, if you are underneath that deformation band, it can dump out 4" of snow in an hour.  Just ask Athens back in 2010.  They probably got 12" of snow in 3 hours.  4 " melted and 8" shut the city down.
> 
> 
> One other thing, the models are having issues with this thing even as I sit here and type.  The NAM of all things has been leading the way and the GFS has come around to its thinking.  However the last run of the GFS was a little warmer and faster in it's travels.
> 
> 
> I have not even read back to see if Miguel posted it or not, but the temp maps for next week are staggering.  Make sure you got some firewood and extra $$$ to pay the gas bill with.
> 
> Late January and February maybe a fun ride.
> 
> See yall tonight.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nicodemus said:


> Bring on the cold. I`m ready for some real winter.



I can be packed and ready for Montana in about an hour. When are we leaving.


----------



## Nicodemus

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can be packed and ready for Montana in about an hour. When are we leaving.





I`m ready!!


----------



## Nitram4891

About time you showed up DDD!!!!   Looking forward to your analysis for the next 24 hours and here's to hoping some of us get a nice surprise!


----------



## Keebs

Nicodemus said:


> Bring on the cold. I`m ready for some real winter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Nitram4891 said:


> About time you showed up DDD!!!!   Looking forward to your analysis for the next 24 hours and here's to hoping some of us get a nice surprise!



If you are self employed and haven't met with your CPA yet, that surprise is on it's way, albeit not so nice.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can be packed and ready for Montana in about an hour. When are we leaving.





Nicodemus said:


> I`m ready!!


 I got the relish & jelly and other essentials, let's roll!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Keebs said:


> I got the relish & jelly and other essentials, let's roll!



Y'all pick me up on the way.


----------



## lbzdually

I'm going to Boston next week, starting Thursday.  Do I need to get snow chains, lol?


----------



## Dustin Pate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can be packed and ready for Montana in about an hour. When are we leaving.



I've got a cousin in Bilings! Think he could spare us a place to rest for a while!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Dustin Pate said:


> I've got a cousin in Bilings! Think he could spare us a place to rest for a while!



That does it. Keebs, Nic, after y'all get to my place we'll switch over to the Tahoe and pick up Dustin on the way out west.


----------



## GA DAWG

Im thinking we see a flurry or 2.


----------



## Keebs

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That does it. Keebs, Nic, after y'all get to my place we'll switch over to the Tahoe and pick up Dustin on the way out west.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't care, as long as you're videoing the weather and not yourself. Quack may disagree with me, but I'm betting the general membership is not.



Sorry, can't get up there now. Hwy 441 just fell off the mountain just this side of the Dome.


----------



## Nitram4891




----------



## mountainpass

NCHillbilly said:


> Sorry, can't get up there now. Hwy 441 just fell off the mountain just this side of the Dome.



Wow: http://www.nationalparkstraveler.co...ross-great-smoky-mountains-national-park22691

I remember walking through there in 1992 and admiring the rock work south of that route at Newfound Gap.


----------



## gacowboy

It's time for more DDD reports!!! 
Maybe we will have a winter after all !!!
Keep us posted !


----------



## Dustin Pate

I know it's jusy eye candy but Spann updated his map.


----------



## mountainpass

I will be real surprised if we get a dusting and I am at 1800+ft.


----------



## todd03blown

I hope Spann is right! I am in the 2-3" locations...come on snow..


----------



## mewabbithunter

...winter storm watch in effect from thursday afternoon through
friday morning...

The national weather service in peachtree city has issued a
winter storm watch...which is in effect from thursday afternoon
through friday morning.

* locations...north of a line from carrollton to atlanta to jefferson.

* hazard types...snow and black ice.

* accumulations...2 to 4 inches across the northeast and northwest
  georgia mountains...one inch or less across the rest of the
  watch area.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mewabbithunter said:


> ...winter storm watch in effect from thursday afternoon through
> friday morning...
> 
> The national weather service in peachtree city has issued a
> winter storm watch...which is in effect from thursday afternoon
> through friday morning.
> 
> * locations...north of a line from carrollton to atlanta to jefferson.
> 
> * hazard types...snow and black ice.
> 
> * accumulations...2 to 4 inches across the northeast and northwest
> georgia mountains...one inch or less across the rest of the
> watch area.



Translated = now that they're on board Murphy's Law will rule and it will just be rain.


----------



## SnowHunter

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Translated = now that they're on board Murphy's Law will rule and it will just be rain.



Shush it! No more rain!


----------



## mewabbithunter

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Translated = now that they're on board Murphy's Law will rule and it will just be rain.



Your probally correct!


----------



## elfiii

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Translated = now that they're on board Murphy's Law will rule and it will just be rain.



That's about what I expected. They need to just shut up and say what you and Triple D tell them to say.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> That's about what I expected. They need to just shut up and say what you and Triple D tell them to say.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Honestly, other than the extreme NW and NE forecasts, I think they've lost their minds.


----------



## elfiii

DDD said:


> Make sure you got some firewood and extra $$$ to pay the gas bill with.
> 
> Late January and February maybe a fun ride.
> 
> See yall tonight.



I got firewood stacked up everywhere. May ride down to deer camp this weekend and bring the generator back. Between the firewood, the generator and the Stump's Junior I'll be set.


----------



## GA DAWG

Looks to me like the rain is over for the 30028. Ain't no way it can snow.


----------



## Backlasher82

Nicodemus said:


> Bring on the cold. I`m ready for some real winter.



Strange how the folks in the N Georgia mountains don't seem to get as excited about cold weather as the folks in S Georgia.


----------



## elfiii

Backlasher82 said:


> Strange how the folks in the N Georgia mountains don't seem to get as excited about cold weather as the folks in S Georgia.



He's a retired power company lineman. He just wants to see what it's like to be able to sit at home for a change and not have to mess with the foolishness.


----------



## Crickett

Backlasher82 said:


> Strange how the folks in the N Georgia mountains don't seem to get as excited about cold weather as the folks in S Georgia.



I know! My MIL is probably in panic mode right now! She lives wayyy up in Ellijay! She don't like snow!


----------



## ryano

Backlasher82 said:


> Strange how the folks in the N Georgia mountains don't seem to get as excited about cold weather as the folks in S Georgia.



I beg to differ! I get very excited about snow and cold weather!  Wish it would snow a foot!


----------



## Unicoidawg

Backlasher82 said:


> Strange how the folks in the N Georgia mountains don't seem to get as excited about cold weather as the folks in S Georgia.



I don't know about that....... I live here and there are plenty of folks that get excited. Me included.... and yes I have to work out in it and I still enjoy it. Bring it.


----------



## NCHillbilly

We're under a winter storm warning now, I'm in the 6"-9" range on the little maps. Supposed to be 11 degrees here tomorrow night with 30 mph wind gusts. Gonna be a fun 40-mile drive to work Friday morning. It'll be fun too when people are out of power tomorrow night with near-single-digit temps. Y'all can have my share of this crap. We've already had over a foot of rain since Sunday and everything's flooded and the mountainsides are sliding off, supposed to be about 2"-3" more rain before it turns to snow. Bah, humbug. A pox on winter. Winter sucks. I'm ready for Spring.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> We're under a winter storm warning now, I'm in the 6"-9" range on the little maps.



I tollllld you I wouldn't want to be where you are come Friday morning.


----------



## lbzdually

Where could I go to get a forecast for Eastern Pa into Boston for the end of next week.


----------



## DDD

Posting from my phone so this will be short. 

The NAM has a huge deformation band stretched from VA back to Athens, Atlanta up towards gainesville and most of NE GA from there. The GFS has a similar look but lighter on precip and coverage. The NAM has lead this parade since Sunday. The euro went colder last run and very well may go colder tonight. It will take some insane snowfall rates to stick, but I think gainesville ne ward and the na GA mountains look to be in the best shape.


----------



## PappyHoel

Sounds good.


----------



## shakey gizzard

My tailbone and my knee are callin for 1 to 2 in!


----------



## DDD

Here is the other side of this sword.  Lanier will appreciate this.


----------



## PappyHoel

Feels like its been raining since Christmas.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Posting from my phone so this will be short.
> 
> The NAM has a huge deformation band stretched from VA back to Athens, Atlanta up towards gainesville and most of NE GA from there. The GFS has a similar look but lighter on precip and coverage. The NAM has lead this parade since Sunday. The euro went colder last run and very well may go colder tonight. It will take some insane snowfall rates to stick, but I think gainesville ne ward and the na GA mountains look to be in the best shape.



Is the NAM traditionally a better modeling system at resolving winter weather compared with the GFS or EURO?


----------



## Backlasher82

ryano said:


> I beg to differ! I get very excited about snow and cold weather!  Wish it would snow a foot!



The last time we had that much snow here the only way to get more than 100 yards from my house for over a week was on my motorcycle. 

The cupboards were looking pretty bare by the time I was able to get to the store.

I like snow as much as any Georgian and I like it the way it's supposed to be in Georgia. Real pretty and nice, then gone in 2 days.


----------



## GA DAWG

So DDD, You thinking rain map or snow map?


----------



## DDD

todd03blown said:


> Is the NAM traditionally a better modeling system at resolving winter weather compared with the GFS or EURO?



Negative.  However, traditionally if the NAM locks on and other models migrate towards it's solution, you can ride it to the bank.

It has not let off this solution since Sunday.  Everyone thought it was off its rocker and I thought the same, but it looks like it will produce snow for someone.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

DDD said:


> Posting from my phone so this will be short.
> 
> The NAM has a huge deformation band stretched from VA back to Athens, Atlanta up towards gainesville and most of NE GA from there. The GFS has a similar look but lighter on precip and coverage. The NAM has lead this parade since Sunday. The euro went colder last run and very well may go colder tonight. It will take some insane snowfall rates to stick, but I think gainesville ne ward and the na GA mountains look to be in the best shape.



I miss you.


----------



## DDD

GA DAWG said:


> So DDD, You thinking rain map or snow map?



I think NW GA and the the deformation band area somewhere between 85 and the NEGA Mountains is going to stand the best chance of accumulating snow.

Here in metro ATL I think we are looking at a really good rain turning over to snow briefly followed by one heck of a cold shot and the threat of black ice on the roads Friday morning.


Let's talk about next week for a second.  GFS showed lows in metro ATL down to 23 Wednesday morning with a high of 34.  Thats some serious cold.  All we need is a disturbance to ride in...


----------



## DDD

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I miss you.



I hope Mr. Hornet is not jealous.  

I have missed posting here as well, but duty calls.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> Negative.  However, traditionally if the NAM locks on and other models migrate towards it's solution, you can ride it to the bank.
> 
> It has not let off this solution since Sunday.  Everyone thought it was off its rocker and I thought the same, but it looks like it will produce snow for someone.


Thanks!  Glad you are back and posting on these fronts. Appreciate greatly what you and Miguel do for everyone.


----------



## Backlasher82

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I miss you.



A little time at the range will cure that. Windage and elevation Mrs Hornet, windage and elevation.

Just kidding of course. We all appreciate what you and Miguel do for us here DDD.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Backlasher82 said:


> A little time at the range will cure that. Windage and elevation Mrs Hornet, windage and elevation.
> 
> Just kidding of course. We all appreciate what you and Miguel do for us here DDD.



Yep. Da Messican takes ova when triple D is out. Thanks to both of ya.  I trust ya'll much more than the weathermen on the news.


----------



## Crickett

DDD said:


> Let's talk about next week for a second.  GFS showed lows in metro ATL down to 23 Wednesday morning with a high of 34.  Thats some serious cold.  All we need is a disturbance to ride in...



Come on birthday snow!!!!


----------



## bigox911

Gerg better have his sled ready


----------



## Bitteroot

Gerg does.... And I put hay in da barn tonight along wif some brown water.....


----------



## mewabbithunter

We got the sleds now on standby!


----------



## DDD

Well Boys, the NAM is in and it's colder and stronger.  This may get really, really interesting.  Part of me just doesn't buy it, but ULL's are many times not realized until its too late.

It happened in Dallas 3 days ago.  It could happen tomorrow night.


----------



## jonkayak

I'm suppose to drag a trailer down to Atlanta in the am. Is this going to hold off till till the evening or hit us in mid day?


----------



## topfuelgirl

Hey NCHILLBILLY since my family is heading to Pigeon Forge Friday morning what are they saying for that area ?


----------



## mrs. hornet22

bigox911 said:


> Gerg better have his sled ready



There you are!!!!! Love that avatar.


----------



## DDD

So if any of you are planning a trip to the upper part of NC the next few days... well...


----------



## 3ringer

topfuelgirl said:


> Hey NCHILLBILLY since my family is heading to Pigeon Forge Friday morning what are they saying for that area ?



They are saying that you have to take the long way around the mountain due to the landslide. We are planning a trip up there in March. I guess we will have to go around our tail to get to our thumb too. Have Fun


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

topfuelgirl said:


> Hey NCHILLBILLY since my family is heading to Pigeon Forge Friday morning what are they saying for that area ?


Don't plan on going  to Pigeon Forge through the Great Smoky Mountains National Park on 441

http://www.thesylvaheraldblog.com/archives/5288

The road was washed out by a landslide!!


----------



## Keebs

shakey gizzard said:


> My tailbone and my knee are callin for 1 to 2 in!


 You predict like I do!


bigox911 said:


> Gerg better have his sled ready


Oooooohhhh, you're a site for sore eyes!


Bitteroot said:


> Gerg does.... And I put hay in da barn tonight along wif some brown water.....


on my way...........


----------



## topfuelgirl

Thank you for the info! We heard about the slide so we are going up 75.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Hope you have a great trip in March 3ringer!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Let's talk about next week for a second.  GFS showed lows in metro ATL down to 23 Wednesday morning with a high of 34.  Thats some serious cold.  All we need is a disturbance to ride in...



I think Turtlebug is suppose to be in town that week. Is that disturbance enough for you?


----------



## blood on the ground

whad i miss???


----------



## klfutrelle

blood on the ground said:


> whad i miss???



The blizzard of 2013!!


----------



## PappyHoel

How much imby?


----------



## blood on the ground

klfutrelle said:


> The blizzard of 2013!!



Blizzard.......whachew talkin about willis


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Blizzard.......whachew talkin about willis



He meant Lizard. Nevermind.


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## Sargent

I just bought 4 loaves of bread and 3 gallons of milk.  

Do you think that will be enough?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Sargent said:


> I just bought 4 loaves of bread and 3 gallons of milk.
> 
> Do you think that will be enough?



What about 4 dozen eggs and 6 cans of spam?


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## savreds

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What about 4 dozen eggs and 6 cans of spam?



Mmmmmm... Spam omlettes!!!


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He meant Lizard. Nevermind.


 Got it!


Miguel Cervantes said:


> What about 4 dozen eggs and 6 cans of spam?



im with you.... stock up on spam while you can 

im prayin for the thang to stall and dump 20 inches IMBY


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## nickel back

not going to happen.....


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## Paymaster

I will settle for flurries.


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## mewabbithunter

Im still keeping the sled on standby,

We need a weather update from the experts!


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## panfried0419

I remember 2009 we were only to get a dusting up the I85 corridor near Braselton and Pendergrass and we ended up with 5".


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## turkeyhunter835

mewabbithunter said:


> im still keeping the sled on standby,
> 
> we need a weather update from the experts!



x2...


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## mrs. hornet22

panfried0419 said:


> I remember 2009 we were only to get a dusting up the I85 corridor near Braselton and Pendergrass and we ended up with 5".



I remember that. We always seem to get hammered when they TV tells us a light dusting.


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## Miguel Cervantes

mrs. hornet22 said:


> I remember that. We always seem to get hammered when they TV tells us a light dusting.



I thought you used special events, like when the sun comes up and when the sun goes down as excuses to get hammered. So how's a little snow going to change that?


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## mrs. hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I thought you used special events, like when the sun comes up and when the sun goes down as excuses to get hammered. So how's a little snow going to change that?


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## Miguel Cervantes

This map looks a little more reasonable than the one NOAA put out yesterday.


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## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I thought you used special events, like when the sun comes up and when the sun goes down as excuses to get hammered. So how's a little snow going to change that?





mrs. hornet22 said:


>





Miguel Cervantes said:


> This map looks a little more reasonable than the one NOAA put out yesterday.
> 
> View attachment 710793



stall it out miggy


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## orrb

I am so sad.  I so wanted Paulding County to get hammered.


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## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This map looks a little more reasonable than the one NOAA put out yesterday.
> 
> View attachment 710793



May not be much in my area but I will take it! Hello 4 day weekend!


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## blood on the ground

orrb said:


> I am so sad.  I so wanted Paulding County to get hammered.



come on by the house im in north pauldin.... we can get hammered!!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> come on by the house im in north pauldin.... we can get hammered!!!!


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## Matt.M

Any truth to a friend's latest analysis?  -->wx models continue to change for us ... less snow, but more ice tonight...


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## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> Any truth to a friend's latest analysis?  -->wx models continue to change for us ... less snow, but more ice tonight...



Well, since I can't see or haven't seen his forecast, and since the models only run every six hours, it's kind of hard to comment on what you say he is saying. 

Typically though, ice is going to happen when warm air aloft over rides cold air at the surface. This system is merely cold air chasing the warm air out, and I haven't seen solid evidence to say anything about that will change. There will be the obvious risk of icing on elevated surfaces such as power lines, bridges and trees, but that has been a constant in this forecast, and is not to be misconstrued as this being an ice storm.

Does your friend have a website / blog where he is saying these things?


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## Matt.M

Honestly that was his facebook post.  He does follow the models like you, Triple D and BigOx do.  I think his website that he likes is AmercianWX.

I was thinking he was referencing more ice on the ground per say, not an icing event.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> Honestly that was his facebook post.  He does follow the models like you, Triple D and BigOx do.  I think his website that he likes is AmercianWX.
> 
> I was thinking he was referencing more ice on the ground per say, not an icing event.



If we get ice on the ground, then it IS an "icing event".  however ground temps have been and are wayyyyy to warm and the cold air would need to be in place prior to the warm moist air over riding it. With the exceptions of places like Brasstown Bald, Lin Foote Hike Inn, Clingman's Dome and NCHillbilly's house, I just don't see much of a chance of it.


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## blood on the ground

If there's one good thing about snow, it makes your lawn look as nice as your neighbor's.


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## Jeff Raines

blood on the ground said:


> come on by the house im in north pauldin.... we can get hammered!!!!



Don't leave me out,I'm in burnt hickory


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## blood on the ground

Jeff Raines said:


> Don't leave me out,I'm in burnt hickory



me to!


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## Patriot44

Jeff Raines said:


> Don't leave me out,I'm in burnt hickory





blood on the ground  said:


> come on by the house im in north pauldin.... we can get hammered!!!!





orrb  said:


> I am so sad. I so wanted Paulding County to get hammered.



Here at the crossroads!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Dang, all the cool people live over in the tornado alley part of the state.


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## Nitram4891

I'll be driving west on 20 this afternoon headed to MS.  Great timing , at least I'm pretty confident I'm going to see some of the white stuff.


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## PappyHoel

I must have an update!


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## NCHillbilly

They've cancelled school here now, but they've backed off a little on the snowfall totals. Looks like it might stay rain a little longer than they thought. I'm still predicting a couple-three inches down in the valleys, several inches above 3500'. It all hinges on when the temps hit the magic point this afternoon and how much moisture is left by then. Still pouring rain here, hasn't stopped at all since about midnight Sunday night. I think I'm starting to grow gills.


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## Patriot44

Weather just took a turn here in paulding.  high winds.


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## turkeyhunter835

NCHillbilly said:


> They've cancelled school here now, but they've backed off a little on the snowfall totals. Looks like it might stay rain a little longer than they thought. I'm still predicting a couple-three inches down in the valleys, several inches above 3500'. It all hinges on when the temps hit the magic point this afternoon and how much moisture is left by then. Still pouring rain here, hasn't stopped at all since about midnight Sunday night. I think I'm starting to grow gills.



No kidding


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## elfiii

2nd wave is hitting NW GA now. It looks like it will be an all rain event and out of here by dark. I think Miguel is right. It's going to miss most of us.


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## Dustin Pate

Nitram4891 said:


> I'll be driving west on 20 this afternoon headed to MS.  Great timing , at least I'm pretty confident I'm going to see some of the white stuff.



Better take it slow. I saw some pictures on FB of 1-20 out that way this morning and it was nasty with snow/slush.


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## todd03blown

Patriot44 said:


> Weather just took a turn here in paulding.  high winds.



The winds here in Canton have really picked up as well the last 20 minutes.


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## Crickett

Patriot44 said:


> Weather just took a turn here in paulding.  high winds.



Same here in Cherokee co! Wind is shaking my car as I sit in the car rider line! Drizzlin' rain but its blowin' sideways!


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## ButcherTony

was 60* this morn here now its 47.


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## Nitram4891

Dustin Pate said:


> Better take it slow. I saw some pictures on FB of 1-20 out that way this morning and it was nasty with snow/slush.



Yeah, really not looking forward to it after surface temp dips below freezing either.


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## Resica

elfiii said:


> 2nd wave is hitting NW GA now. It looks like it will be an all rain event and out of here by dark. I think Miguel is right. It's going to miss most of us.



Gonna miss me too.


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## Wade Chandler

We've had 7.61 inches of rain up here on the mountain. Still 50 degrees. . .


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## blood on the ground

Crickett said:


> Same here in Cherokee co! Wind is shaking my car as I sit in the car rider line! Drizzlin' rain but its blowin' sideways!



setting on the roof of the house now././. got cheerleader shorts and a belly top on! oh yeah a 30 pk of keystone and im set!


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## Crickett

blood on the ground said:


> setting on the roof of the house now././. got cheerleader shorts and a belly top on! oh yeah a 30 pk of keystone and im set!


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## Miguel Cervantes

Yep, all of y'all have noticed the shift. Temp is starting to slowly drop here on the good side of town. Just heard they've got thunder snow happening just west of Birmingham, Al.


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## Da Possum

blood on the ground said:


> setting on the roof of the house now././. got cheerleader shorts and a belly top on! oh yeah a 30 pk of keystone and im set!



pics please


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## Paymaster

52* in Newnan when I arrived this morning. 36* now.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Carrolton Alabama, just WNW of Tuscaloosa


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## Crickett

Paymaster said:


> 52* in Newnan when I arrived this morning. 36* now.



50* when I got in car rider line. Now it's 44*!


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## PappyHoel

Forecast for dawsonville just changed to 100% chance of snow


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## todd03blown

Here is a good picture of Bryant Denny Stadium. Roll Tide!


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## blood on the ground

todd03blown said:


> Here is a good picture of Bryant Denny Stadium. Roll Tide!



roll tide baby!!!


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## Miguel Cervantes

I imagine, looking at the active radar, that Bowden / Carrolton Ga area will be seeing white stuff flying around within an hour or so.


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## blood on the ground

thought it was going ta cool off???


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## biggtruxx

Sleeting here in Monroe


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## panfried0419

Sleet in Gainesville


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## Dustin Pate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I imagine, looking at the active radar, that Bowden / Carrolton Ga area will be seeing white stuff flying around within an hour or so.



Waiting.....

The temp is bombing on thermometer. It has literally dropped two degrees in the last 5 minutes. Folks I know just over from Bowdon in Ranburne said it is snowing already there.


----------



## blood on the ground

Dustin Pate said:


> Waiting.....
> 
> The temp is bombing on thermometer. It has literally dropped two degrees in the last 5 minutes. Folks I know just over from Bowdon in Ranburne said it is snowing already there.



yep, just talked to me dad and he said snow and sleet in aniston now.


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## huntinglady74

OK you Carrolton folks send it just a little futher down to Lagrange please....


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## savreds

sniff sniff... I smell something, it's probably just the server starting to overheat a little bit!
It's still 70 stinking degrees down here... dang I'm ready for it to cool off.


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## Miguel Cervantes

savreds said:


> sniff sniff... I smell something, it's probably just the server starting to overheat a little bit!
> It's still 70 stinking degrees down here... dang I'm ready for it to cool off.


Better hop in your buggy and head up I-16 then...


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## SnowHunter

Wind just seriously picked up here and the temperature dropped


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's what my super dooper snow radar looks like.


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## Sugar Plum

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Better hop in your buggy and head up I-16 then...



Yay!! Temp dropped super fast!!


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## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's what my super dooper snow radar looks like.
> 
> View attachment 710889



I wish all of that snow would hold together as it comes into GA...


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## Da Possum

Kang


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## ryork

Snow starting to mix in with the rain in Bremen.


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## stringmusic

hdm03 said:


> Kang


----------



## crackerdave

huntinglady74 said:


> OK you Carrolton folks send it just a little futher down to Lagrange please....



Noooo


----------



## huntinglady74

crackerdave said:


> Noooo



Cracker hush before i have to come hunt you down and make Cracker soup for the forum....


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## zworley3

Just started with some light sleet here in downtown Atlanta


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## Foxmeister

Very windy up here in the Cleveland/Helen area.  The temp is starting to drop and it's getting foggy.


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## Dustin Pate

Snowing in Carrollton!


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## Da Possum




----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I imagine, looking at the active radar, that Bowden / Carrolton Ga area will be seeing white stuff flying around within an hour or so.





Dustin Pate said:


> Snowing in Carrollton!


An hour and a half almost on the dot... Close enough.


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## Da Possum

I not kang no mo.......Nothing here in L-ville


----------



## Backlasher82

Dustin Pate said:


> Snowing in Carrollton!



Pouring down rain in Rabun but watching this thread has made me fairly certain I can predict the future weather up here.


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## todd03blown

They just added a few more counties in the Winter Storm Warning, expanding it by 5 more. Cherokee was in the advisory now we are in the Winter Storm Warning.


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## Crickett

todd03blown said:


> They just added a few more counties in the Winter Storm Warning, expanding it by 5 more. Cherokee was in the advisory now we are in the Winter Storm Warning.


----------



## Rockdale Buck

This morning it was 54 now it is 39.... crazy, even though they arnt predicting snow for Henry County I still have hope!


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## Shane Dockery

todd03blown said:


> They just added a few more counties in the Winter Storm Warning, expanding it by 5 more. Cherokee was in the advisory now we are in the Winter Storm Warning.




Where did you see that?  Just curious as the other networks don't have that updated yet.  Thanks!


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## todd03blown

Shane Dockery said:


> Where did you see that?  Just curious as the other networks don't have that updated yet.  Thanks!



Here are the 2 updated photos from Mike Francis from channel 11. The top one is the most recent with the bottom being the older one.

You will see the counties that are added in white after they changed their forecast.


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## ryork

Snowing at a little better clip now in Bremen.  Wooded areas around my yard starting to turn a little white as is my shop roof.


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## Miguel Cervantes

todd03blown said:


> Here are the 2 updated photos from Mike Francis from channel 11. The top one is the most recent with the bottom being the older one.
> 
> You will see the counties that are added in white after they changed their forecast.


Mike is a little slow. The NWS added those counties hours ago.


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## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Mike is a little slow. The NWS added those counties hours ago.



Oh snap!!!


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## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Mike is a little slow. The NWS added those counties hours ago.



I got the alert on my phone about 2 hrs ago but I didn't post it b/c it was from Accuweather.


----------



## Shane Dockery

todd03blown said:


> Here are the 2 updated photos from Mike Francis from channel 11. The top one is the most recent with the bottom being the older one.
> 
> You will see the counties that are added in white after they changed their forecast.



Maybe Miguel can answer this stupid question.  How can the white areas in Alabama change right at the boarder along I-20?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Crickett said:


> I got the alert on my phone about 2 hrs ago but I didn't post it b/c it was from Accuweather.


That would be about the time (2:58) the NWS was listing it. 

Here's the NWS / NOAA site for this particular set of warnings, watches and advisories if y'all would like to keep up with them. 

http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ga.php?x=1


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## mudracing101

hdm03 said:


> Kang





stringmusic said:


>





hdm03 said:


>



Wrong thread ya idjits.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Shane Dockery said:


> Maybe Miguel can answer this stupid question.  How can the white areas in Alabama change right at the boarder along I-20?


Are you asking about radar? or warning / watch / advisory areas?


----------



## Shane Dockery

ha!  now you're getting technical on me.  i was referring to the maps above posted by todd.  i really have no idea what i'm talking about.


----------



## topfuelgirl

Snowing in Yorkville!!


----------



## GA DAWG

Looks to me like some moisture is gonna have to come from somewhere if its gonna do much.


----------



## NCHillbilly

We've already got a couple inches of wet, sticky crap here. The roads were already slick when I was coming home. It went from pouring rain to pouring goose-feather snow in like 30 seconds. The ground is so warm and wet that it's melting from the bottom almost as fast as it's piling up on top, or we'd already have 6-8". It's 32 degrees now, though, so pretty soon whatever falls is gonna stay there. We're flooding on top of it. The river below my house is less than a foot away from coming over the road.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Shane Dockery said:


> ha!  now you're getting technical on me.  i was referring to the maps above posted by todd.  i really have no idea what i'm talking about.


They are merely following the county boundaries instead of splitting them, in the highest probability areas based on model info. But the truth of the matter is, with this system at least, they don't really have a clue whether this one will get moisture starved before it gets cold enough or what will happen here in Georgia.


----------



## Matt.M

Radar (from weather.com) has all this great winter in AL and after it gets to the border it changes to rain.  

UGH.

Anyone need any milk, or bread?


----------



## Patriot44

My daughter just informed me that the kids in her class this afternoon were all giddy and asking the big question.  She said her teacher pulled up this site and said "these guys are allways right"  Hahaha


----------



## CharlesH

Patriot44 said:


> My daughter just informed me that the kids in her class this afternoon were all giddy and asking the big question.  She said her teacher pulled up this site and said "these guys are allways right"  Hahaha



All the good teachers there know about the weather forecasting here!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Patriot44 said:


> My daughter just informed me that the kids in her class this afternoon were all giddy and asking the big question.  She said her teacher pulled up this site and said "these guys are allways right"  Hahaha




Make sure your stuff is nailed down tonight. It's gonna get down right windy up here in the northern half of georgia.


----------



## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure your stuff is nailed down tonight. It's gonna get down right windy up here in the northern half of georgia.



 We got a lil pine tree that looks like it might fall anytime now!  it don't fall tonight


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crickett said:


> We got a lil pine tree that looks like it might fall anytime now!  it don't fall tonight


You got a chainsaw?


----------



## GA DAWG

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure your stuff is nailed down tonight. It's gonna get down right windy up here in the northern half of georgia.


When's that gonna start? With all this rain we've had. That ain't gonna be good.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure your stuff is nailed down tonight. It's gonna get down right windy up here in the northern half of georgia.



It is now.  My boss was in a meeting in Knoxville today.  At three when he left, scraped 2 in of slush off the windshield.

I talked to him about an hour ago and he was somewhere nearing Chattanooga getting hammered.

No he wasnt in a bar.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> When's that gonna start? With all this rain we've had. That ain't gonna be good.


When it gets here.......sometime tonight.


----------



## jsullivan03

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Make sure your stuff is nailed down tonight. It's gonna get down right windy up here in the northern half of georgia.



Guess I need to put a few more straps around the kayak on my roof rack.  Knew I should have waited until tomorrow morning to put it on the truck.   Eh...If it didn't fly of at 80MPH on the way to work today, I guess it'll be alright.


----------



## Resica

Shane Dockery said:


> Maybe Miguel can answer this stupid question.  How can the white areas in Alabama change right at the boarder along I-20?



You talking about going from a winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory at the state line? 

 If that's the case , I know we can have different areas with the same snow prediction and 1 will get a winter storm warning, the other an advisory. Depends on how much snow they are accustomed to getting up here.


----------



## hunter rich

Resica said:


> You talking about going from a winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory at the state line?
> 
> If that's the case , I know we can have different areas with the same snow prediction and 1 will get a winter storm warning, the other an advisory. Depends on how much snow they are accustomed to getting up here.



This has nothing to do with weather but --- hope The Broad Street Bullies beat the snot out of Crosby and friends this weekend!!!


----------



## Crickett

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You got a chainsaw?



My husband's got 3 but he's too tired when he comes home from work to mess w/ it!


----------



## Patriot44

CharlesH said:


> All the good teachers there know about the weather forecasting here!!



Thats good to know.  I knew about you but not about the teachers at SMM.  Our neighbor's kid is in your class.  Can you say JEALOUS!


----------



## GA DAWG

I've decided. Ain't gonna do nothing in the 30028.


----------



## panfried0419

I guess East hall/north Jackson County is going to miss out


----------



## turkeyhunter835

come on SNOW!!!


----------



## ryork

Heavy snow here in Bremen now. Porch, roof, and grass turning white very quickly.  Gorgeous snowfall!


----------



## Trigabby

Shouldn't we have a WWT # 2 by now?  Or did we upgrade the server?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Trigabby said:


> Shouldn't we have a WWT # 2 by now?  Or did we upgrade the server?


Good idea. Maybe with the new one will come new potential for snow and make DDD get back in here on his lunch break at least. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=7556756#post7556756

Mods, go ahead and lock this one down.


----------



## klfutrelle

So much for not sticking.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Here was awhile ago-more out there now and still shelling it down.


----------



## elfiii

Trigabby said:


> Shouldn't we have a WWT # 2 by now?  Or did we upgrade the server?



10th Inning. Free baseball! 

Cloudy, cool, extremely light rain in Suwanee right now.


----------

