# ***General Discussion Weather Thread #5 ***



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

We done kilt another thread looks like

Carry on.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 2, 2017)

And we're off.....................


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 2, 2017)

12z GFS getting squirrely for Feb 10th time frame.  Kinda out of the blue.  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png


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## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 2, 2017)

A perfect ending to a thread:


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## Da Possum (Feb 2, 2017)

CAMs and NAMs


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

Ringold has fount him a toy!

Try these out.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

This map is more accurate though.


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 2, 2017)

Miggy, I use Pivotal weather too.  I just like that tropical tidbits as it has a much easier scroll.  You can get through the entire set of maps in 10 seconds without clicking.  It's the only thing it does better than Pivotal.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 2, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This map is more accurate though.



Since the great scary clown scare of 2016, everyone in my home has standing orders to shoot anyone wearing size 25 floppy shoes, a red nose, and a wig.


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## blondiega1 (Feb 2, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This map is more accurate though.




Wait!  Where's my county???



.


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 2, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> Wait!  Where's my county???
> 
> 
> 
> .



Blondie just won the internet.


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## nickel back (Feb 2, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> Wait!  Where's my county???
> 
> 
> 
> .



the in the back with out the hat on


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## blondiega1 (Feb 2, 2017)

nickel back said:


> the in the back with out the hat on


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 2, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> 12z GFS getting squirrely for Feb 10th time frame.  Kinda out of the blue.



It won't happen. Bring on summer, winter's over.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 2, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> It won't happen. Bring on summer, winter's over.



Shoot, winter never even began in earnest this year. There's always next year I suppose............


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 2, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> It won't happen. Bring on summer, winter's over.



It'll happen here.


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## snookdoctor (Feb 2, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Shoot, winter never even began in earnest this year. There's always next year I suppose............



Earnest? Your location says Flintstone.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 2, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Earnest? Your location says Flintstone.



It's an unincorporated suburb of Flintstone..........


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It's an unincorporated suburb of Flintstone..........



Which is a suburb of Chattanoogi. Some strange folks up that way, especially on Pigeon Mtn.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 2, 2017)

Can't argue with you there. Problem is, most of the weird ones are always yelling "roll tide" or something like that.


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 2, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Can't argue with you there. Problem is, most of the weird ones are always yelling "roll tide" or something like that.



Yep!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Can't argue with you there. Problem is, most of the weird ones are always yelling "roll tide" or something like that.





RinggoldGa said:


> Yep!


See if you ever get snow up that way again. 

I got mad connections you know.


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## doenightmare (Feb 2, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Which is a suburb of Chattanoogi. Some strange folks up that way, especially on Pigeon Mtn.



Now that you mention it everyboty I ever met from up there was odd. This one ole boy from Chatti ate boogers at work.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 2, 2017)

doenightmare said:


> Now that you mention it everyboty I ever met from up there was odd. This one ole boy from Chatti ate boogers at work.


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## DDD (Feb 2, 2017)

GFS is trying to come up with something in the 7-10 day window but the EURO thinks the GFS is drunk.

The GFS is dead to me because it lied to me back in January, so until it proves otherwise... it's drunk.


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## blood on the ground (Feb 2, 2017)

DDD said:


> GFS is trying to come up with something in the 7-10 day window but the EURO thinks the GFS is drunk.
> 
> The GFS is dead to me because it lied to me back in January, so until it proves otherwise... it's drunk.



Go to bed Triple D! You need your rest for the Blizzard that is coming in a few weeks


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 3, 2017)

DDD said:


> GFS is trying to come up with something in the 7-10 day window but the EURO thinks the GFS is drunk.
> 
> The GFS is dead to me because it lied to me back in January, so until it proves otherwise... it's drunk.



Appears to have sobered up this morning.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 3, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> It'll happen here.



Yeah, but that's what you get for living in the Arctic Circle.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 3, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yeah, but that's what you get for living in the Arctic Circle.


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## keithsto (Feb 3, 2017)

Winter weather fans aren't gonna like the latest from WxSouth:

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/ph...106867752708/1570291743000875/?type=3&theater


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 3, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Winter weather fans aren't gonna like the latest from WxSouth:



It's a computer model two weeks out, ergo odds are better that it doesn't verify.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 3, 2017)

No kidding. Heck, we can't get a model that's 2 DAYS out to verify.


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## jbird1 (Feb 3, 2017)

I'm holding out til the bitter end.  I had a double bull blind get destroyed in Oglethorpe County a few years ago by a surprise  6-8" March snowfall.  That system "brought it's own dynamics."


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## smokey30725 (Feb 3, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I'm holding out til the bitter end.  I had a double bull blind get destroyed in Oglethorpe County a few years ago by a surprise  6-8" March snowfall.  That system "brought it's own dynamics."



I'm with you on that! Maybe some "march madness" will be in the works for us and hopefully it will stop 15 feet from Hillbilly's county line.


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## Milkman (Feb 3, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I'm holding out til the bitter end.  I had a double bull blind get destroyed in Oglethorpe County a few years ago by a surprise  6-8" March snowfall.  That system "brought it's own dynamics."



Yep, Sunday March 1, 2009 was the date.  It was a pure snow event too, not sleet or ice.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 3, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Winter weather fans aren't gonna like the latest from WxSouth:
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/ph...106867752708/1570291743000875/?type=3&theater


Anomoly maps are only the departure from normal. That one is predicting 5 degrees warmer than normal.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 3, 2017)

First time I've found this site. IF this verifies it could be good news for mid February. NAO going negative around mid month and if we get blocking in the Atlantic DDD will be giddy as Hillary Clinton thinking she has the election in the bag.


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## parisinthe20s (Feb 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> First time I've found this site. IF this verifies it could be good news for mid February. NAO going negative around mid month and if we get blocking in the Atlantic DDD will be giddy as Hillary Clinton thinking she has the election in the bag.



That made me chuckle, the weather today was beautiful,  but I'd still prefer it 10 degrees cooler


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## smokey30725 (Feb 3, 2017)

So you're saying there's a chance..................


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## keithsto (Feb 3, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> It's a computer model two weeks out, ergo odds are better that it doesn't verify.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Anomoly maps are only the departure from normal. That one is predicting 5 degrees warmer than normal.



In addition to the image of the anomoly map, there was also a link to Robert's post on Facebook in my post.  Robert mentioned the climate prediction models and other things pointing to a record breaking warmth in February.


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## NCHillbilly (Feb 4, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> I'm holding out til the bitter end.  I had a double bull blind get destroyed in Oglethorpe County a few years ago by a surprise  6-8" March snowfall.  That system "brought it's own dynamics."



Some of the biggest snows I've ever seen here have been in March, April, and early May. It snowed over 50" deep in one day on Mt. Pisgah in my county on May 5th back in the 90s. Trapped a bunch of people in an inn up there. The same day, it snowed about a foot down here in my holler that morning, then turned over to rain and was all gone off the ground by dark. Crazy stuff.

It's a nice balmy 13* here this morning with a biting north wind, btw.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 4, 2017)

The GFS is neutral this morning, between us getting it and us not. This is why they call them clown maps, they are about  as useful as a compass sitting next to a magnet.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 4, 2017)

Met Shack updated


http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10593689#post10593689


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## jbird1 (Feb 5, 2017)

The March storm from '09 that took out my pop-up blind.http://onlineathens.com/stories/030309/new_400349497.shtml#.WJc4aWczXIU


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## smokey30725 (Feb 5, 2017)

Channel 3 mets already saying Tuesday holds potential for severe storms.


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## snookdoctor (Feb 5, 2017)

SPC shows 15% sts on Wednesday for GA/AL.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 6, 2017)

Local guys keep using the terms "unsettled" and "lots of uncertainty". One already said it's likely to be a rocky spring.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 6, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Local guys keep using the terms "unsettled" and "lots of uncertainty". One already said it's likely to be a rocky spring.



All I ask for is rain, and lots of it. Not enough to cause flooding, but enough to fill the lakes again. Oh, and if there are to be spinny things or strong winds, that they impact areas that no one lives.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Local guys keep using the terms "unsettled" and "lots of uncertainty". One already said it's likely to be a rocky spring.



It could be a rocky spring, there is no way to tell. Perhaps he should patent his crystal ball. 

The Met Shack Severe Thread for February is updated. 
This local guy is reporting what is known, not what can be speculated.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 6, 2017)

To be fair, I haven't checked yet to see what the Facebook Forecaster is calling for. I should have withheld judgement until reading up on his prognostication.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 6, 2017)

Can we call winter officially over yet?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

While we are watching tomorrow and Wednesdays severe potential to develop, or not, let's look at something I referred to earlier on. 

I mentioned and may have shown a graph (to lazy go go back and read) where the NAO was predicted to take a harder dip negative around the 16th. 

This clown map indicates that cold air intrusion, but the  540 mixing line and the PType don't jive. This most likely will be a cold rain around the 16th/ 17th but if we get some good Atlantic blocking then it is a different story. For now that isn't showing up on this clown map. I'll just park this right here for y'all to put in your RAM. 

Also, given the cyclical nature of the AO, don't look for this to change before mid to late March, or later. The difference is, as daytime temps become warmer the weather will become more volatile in nature.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

As seen on this AO forecast, it will be taking an extremely negative dive around the 16th which will facilitate the NAO and effect weather in the SE around that date.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

Here is the NAO forecast graph showing that dip to the negative around the 16th. Sharper than any we have had this season thus far.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 6, 2017)

Does anyone know if DDD saw his shadow the other day? Or is he hiding in his burrow, protesting the rapid approach of spring?


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Does anyone know if DDD saw his shadow the other day? Or is he hiding in his burrow, protesting the rapid approach of spring?


He came into the sound booth to hang out with me for the first service on Sunday after doing his volunteer duty outside. His lips were blue.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

Here is what David Chandley is posting on FB.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 6, 2017)

Definitely will be keeping an eye on the weather radio.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 6, 2017)

For what it's worth, the Facebook Forecaster has been radio silent since Saturday. Either he's practicing extreme OPSEC for an upcoming weather event, or he's grown weary of pretending he's Jim Cantore, Jr. and it's getting too time consuming to copy and paste maps and the opinions of others.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 6, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> For what it's worth, the Facebook Forecaster has been radio silent since Saturday. Either he's practicing extreme OPSEC for an upcoming weather event, or he's grown weary of pretending he's Jim Cantore, Jr. and it's getting too time consuming to copy and paste maps and the opinions of others.


Or he doesn't have a clue how to read the complexities of severe weather components. 

That being said, everyone needs to keep a regular check on the Met Shack / February Severe thread over the next few days. That is where I'll be posting the data I am finding. 

Just like this one I recently put up tonight. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10597299#post10597299


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## smokey30725 (Feb 7, 2017)

Sounds like NW Georgia gets the heavy stuff early this afternoon.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 7, 2017)

Can you help us understand the sounding graphic Miguel? I presume that's winds at altitude, but I'm guessing on that one.


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## georgia357 (Feb 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just like this one I recently put up tonight.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10597299#post10597299



If I'm reading that right, it doesn't look too good for Oglethorpe Co.  I'll definitely be keeping my eyes and ears open.


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## toyota4x4h (Feb 7, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Sounds like NW Georgia gets the heavy stuff early this afternoon.



Paul Barys said nothing major MAYBE some wind issues but nothing bad..


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## prydawg (Feb 7, 2017)

south Louisiana is getting hit pretty good with tornado warnings, I am not a weather buff but will this be an indicator of what we will be dealing with later today?


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 7, 2017)

prydawg said:


> south Louisiana is getting hit pretty good with tornado warnings, I am not a weather buff but will this be an indicator of what we will be dealing with later today?



That area has more energy to work with. From what Miguel has posted we don't have as much here, that's why they're saying gusty winds in the storms.


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 7, 2017)

I'm glad the line of storms currently in Middle TN looks to be timed perfectly to follow me on my drive from Chattanooga area to Asheville  NC later this afternoon.


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## RinggoldGa (Feb 7, 2017)

Miggy, care to translate *******i's latest tweet about something colossal set up next week?  Some record set up for this time in Feb.  Not sure what it's referring to.  Need Meteorologist translated into English.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy, care to translate *******i's latest tweet about something colossal set up next week?  Some record set up for this time in Feb.  Not sure what it's referring to.  Need Meteorologist translated into English.



Thank you I was just coming to ask this same thing.


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## Mountainbuck (Feb 7, 2017)

Waiting


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## Nitram4891 (Feb 7, 2017)

Picked a great day to update the FFC radar...


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## smokey30725 (Feb 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy, care to translate *******i's latest tweet about something colossal set up next week?  Some record set up for this time in Feb.  Not sure what it's referring to.  Need Meteorologist translated into English.



I'm curious as well. Just added him to the stable of mets that I follow on twitter.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 7, 2017)

Updates about *******i's predications?


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## snookdoctor (Feb 7, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Updates about *******i's predications?



He broke out his weeegee board, after drankin purdy hard.


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## keithsto (Feb 7, 2017)

I assume y'all are referring to his quote about the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).  I'm not Miggy, but I can Google with the best of em. 



> 4. What are the typical MJO impacts on U.S. weather?
> The MJO influences both precipitation and surface temperature patterns across the US.
> The two most significant impacts over the US during Northern Hemisphere winter are an
> increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events along the US west
> ...



From here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

We'll get to all of that. Right now I am concerned for our friends down in SOWEGA. They don't need this kind of weather down there right now. And for what it's worth, the NWS completely missed calling this in their projections.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 7, 2017)

We under the gun right now with a tornado on the ground headed this way. We`ve all had about enough of this.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> We under the gun right now with a tornado on the ground headed this way. We`ve all had about enough of this.



Yep, you beat me to the punch on posting about it. Hope it stays out in the fields.


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## turkeyhunter835 (Feb 7, 2017)

Dang.... this looks like to be a bad spring


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## Nicodemus (Feb 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yep, you beat me to the punch on posting about it. Hope it stays out in the fields.





They`re saying it`s headed near about right at us. In Albany now headed towards us. Supposed to be close to Palmyra now. Warren was headed home from work and he got turned around and skeedadled out to his boss`s house out Philema since it is fixing to hit around his place any minute.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 7, 2017)

Looks like the tornado warning just expired.


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## havin_fun_huntin (Feb 7, 2017)

Nic, I didnt hear it was on the ground just a warning.  What radio station or TV channel  are you watching


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> They`re saying it`s headed near about right at us. In Albany now headed towards us. Supposed to be close to Palmyra now. Warren was headed home from work and he got turned around and skeedadled out to his boss`s house out Philema since it is fixing to hit around his place any minute.



The spotters in your area are falling down or their job, or there aren't any. NWS is reporting nothing on the ground. 

I have reports of straightline wind damage to the west of Albany over in Bama, none coming in for Albany yet.
KEOX radar is locked up and KMMX and the one in Valdosta suck so they are of no help. That leaves my nearest platform to pull from in Warner Robbins and I have low confidence that I can see that deep into the clouds from that angle, especially what is to the WSW of you.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 7, 2017)

havin_fun_huntin said:


> Nic, I didnt hear it was on the ground just a warning.  What radio station or TV channel  are you watching




WALB News, and my flip phone even went off from the NWS to take cover because a tornado was on the ground close to northwest Albany. 



Miguel Cervantes said:


> The spotters in your area are falling down or their job, or there aren't any. NWS is reporting nothing on the ground.
> 
> I have reports of straightline wind damage to the west of Albany over in Bama, none coming in for Albany yet.
> KEOX radar is locked up and KMMX and the one in Valdosta suck so they are of no help. That leaves my nearest platform to pull from in Warner Robbins and I have low confidence that I can see that deep into the clouds from that angle, especially what is to the WSW of you.



It got rougher`n a cobb here for a short spell, but it`s just a steady rain now.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> WALB News, and my flip phone even went off from the NWS to take cover because a tornado was on the ground close to northwest Albany.
> 
> 
> 
> It got rougher`n a cobb here for a short spell, but it`s just a steady rain now.



The squall line has passed, for now. There's more mess back in MS where two naders did some damage. We'll see if it's gonna be a long night or not. Hopefully the sun going down will steal some of the energy.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The squall line has passed, for now. There's more mess back in MS where two naders did some damage. We'll see if it's gonna be a long night or not. Hopefully the sun going down will steal some of the energy.





I hope so. This area has suffered more than a gracious plenty since the first of the year. Everybody and his brother is gunshy and runs for cover if a cloud rises now. For good reason....


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I hope so. This area has suffered more than a gracious plenty since the first of the year. Everybody and his brother is gunshy and runs for cover if a cloud rises now. For good reason....



Not a bad habit to get into. When I saw the temp on my truck mirror was over 70° at 11am this morning I knew it was souping up for some mischief. 

Make sure all your friends get them a weather radio before too much longer also.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy, care to translate *******i's latest tweet about something colossal set up next week?  Some record set up for this time in Feb.  Not sure what it's referring to.  Need Meteorologist translated into English.



http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10596790&postcount=54

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10596788&postcount=53

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10596763&postcount=52


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## Lukikus2 (Feb 7, 2017)

Did I mention how bad I dislike these systems. Prayers for everyone's safety.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 7, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Did I mention how bad I dislike these systems. Prayers for everyone's safety.


If you dislike these systems you're gonna love March weather.


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## Lukikus2 (Feb 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you dislike these systems you're gonna love March weather.



You called this one back at the start of the thread. I'm staying tuned. I've seen snow in April and flurries in May in the South. It's Mother Natures cooling machine. No one controls it. Glad you guys are here to predict it though.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you dislike these systems you're gonna love March weather.



Dang it........


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## Nicodemus (Feb 8, 2017)

From what I`m hearing this morning, it looks like what they were calling a tornado last night here never touched the ground. No new damage has been reported yet anyway. Thank goodness. My gauge this morning shows 6/10ths but most of our rain last night was nearly horizontal. It got right rough around here.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Spann says it may get rough again today as this cold front comes in.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> From what I`m hearing this morning, it looks like what they were calling a tornado last night here never touched the ground. No new damage has been reported yet anyway. Thank goodness. My gauge this morning shows 6/10ths but most of our rain last night was nearly horizontal. It got right rough around here.


Glad y'all are all ok. New Orleans got tore up though. That was an incredible radar sig out of that monster.



smokey30725 said:


> Spann says it may get rough again today as this cold front comes in.



Miggy said it first a few days ago, in the MET Shack.

Y'all really need to get used to going there.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 8, 2017)

Hugh, what is the outlook for this afternoon and the next few days in Southwest Georgia?


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## parisinthe20s (Feb 8, 2017)

My grass is starting to turn green and I've seen about 15 chipmunks, that means winter is probably over huh


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh, what is the outlook for this afternoon and the next few days in Southwest Georgia?


Just posted it up in the Met Shack Nic. As for the next few days I haven't gotten that far yet. These pesky client people are putting a severe cramp in my wx nerd time. 


parisinthe20s said:


> My grass is starting to turn green and I've seen about 15 chipmunks, that means winter is probably over huh


Keep believing that.


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## Nicodemus (Feb 8, 2017)

Many thanks!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Many thanks!



HRRR is running right now. I will pull soundings for each of the 4 to 5 hour maps and show the related VMap which targets where each sounding was pulled. The last run showed marginal tornado risks with very isolated cells from NW Atl down to around Americus. 

So stay tuned. I will update the MET Shack with this info as soon as it is available.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Just posted the soundings maps and correlating simulated convection maps in the MET Shack. As you can see this is going to be isolated severe so there is no way of telling when or where you will be under one. Stay alert. Most all of the cells have the potential for a downburst or low level tornado.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Cold front is pushing through the corner of Kentucky and Tennessee right now, so it may be running a little behind schedule, which is bad for us. That means more daytime heating before it gets here.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> My grass is starting to turn green and I've seen about 15 chipmunks, that means winter is probably over huh



My grass sprouted up so high that I mowed the whole yard last weekend.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Not trying to jump around too much, but y'all were wondering about a few days out too. I've mentioned the period of the 16th much earlier with my NAO / AO graphs and the negative spike that is prog'd to occur. 

I just posted GFS maps up on the Met Shack for that period as well.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Cold front is pushing through the corner of Kentucky and Tennessee right now, so it may be running a little behind schedule, which is bad for us. That means more daytime heating before it gets here.



Looks like NW Georgia will avoid the brunt of it. Praying for my GON brothers in the path of any rough stuff today.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like NW Georgia will avoid the brunt of it. Praying for my GON brothers in the path of any rough stuff today.



Not so fast Buckaroo. Those are animated projections. I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere in Ga with this one. Isolated cells are the worst.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

My apologies on the time frame fopah in the Met Shack. I got am and pm reversed for the timing of this system. 

Good news is it happens later this evening. Bad news is we get all day for things to heat up real good.


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## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> My apologies on the time frame fopah in the Met Shack. I got am and pm reversed for the timing of this system.
> 
> Good news is it happens later this evening. Bad news is we get all day for things to heat up real good.



Hopefully the cloud cover stays in place and we don't get as warm as we could otherwise. We still have plenty of energy to work with even at the projected temps.


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## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

It was nearly 60 degrees this morning when I left the house at 7:30.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not so fast Buckaroo. Those are animated projections. I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere in Ga with this one. Isolated cells are the worst.



Believe me, I keep an eye to the sky and the weather radio next to me during these times.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

1722z holding at 60° on my wx station. Hopefully this keeps up. It will work in our favor.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> 0722z holding at 60° on my wx station. Hopefully this keeps up. It will work in our favor.



I'm pretty sure, even by the GON clock, the time of this post was not 0722z, now 1722...


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

62 here in Dalton and 63 up in Chattanooga with 94% humidity.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I'm pretty sure, even by the GON clock, the time of this post was not 0722z, now 1722...



That's what I typed. Why are you altering my posts? 

It's hard to concentrate while trying to run autocad and do the weather at the same time.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's what I typed. Why are you altering my posts?
> 
> It's hard to concentrate while trying to run autocad and do the weather at the same time.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Here's a good graphic from David Chandley on FB. Notice the converging winds. This is where bad things happen really fast.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

The Facebook Phenom has been mia for 4 days now. I wonder if he done had a run in with the po po?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a good graphic from David Chandley on FB. Notice the converging winds. This is where bad things happen really fast.



Yeah, those are some strong looking winds changing directions in a very tight space.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yeah, those are some strong looking winds changing directions in a very tight space.



When the winds come together in a V then the clouds have a better potential to reach the ground in a V. 

What isn't shown in that graphic is the altitude difference in winds causing the crossover rotation. 

Here is a sample of what I will be looking for in soundings of specific cells when the weather arrives. Strongly divergent winds at lower altitudes are a prime indicator.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> When the winds come together in a V then the clouds have a better potential to reach the ground in a V.
> 
> What isn't shown in that graphic is the altitude difference in winds causing the crossover rotation.
> 
> Here is a sample of what I will be looking for in soundings of specific cells when the weather arrives. Strongly divergent winds at lower altitudes are a prime indicator.



The usage of the Joplin F5 data is troublesome.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> The usage of the Joplin F5 data is troublesome.



I used it as a mere example of what the graph explains. They are almost always dead accurate at lower level forecasting. This is how I derived the icing event that would take place before the chance of any snow fell during our Facebook Blizzard.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I used it as a mere example of what the graph explains. They are almost always dead accurate at lower level forecasting. This is how I derived the icing event that would take place before the chance of any snow fell during our Facebook Blizzard.



Ah.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Lots of the mets on twitter are trying to make people aware that most of this hits our area well after dark and that some of the strongest winds in a long time will be coming with this system. 40 mph winds predicted up in my area of NW Georgia.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Lots of the mets on twitter are trying to make people aware that most of this hits our area well after dark and that some of the strongest winds in a long time will be coming with this system. 40 mph winds predicted up in my area of NW Georgia.



I think I already stated 40mph winds in the met shack when analyzing this system. 

Are they also telling you that the winds will keep it up long after the front has passed? For most of the day Thursday actually.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I think I already stated 40mph winds in the met shack when analyzing this system.
> 
> Are they also telling you that the winds will keep it up long after the front has passed? For most of the day Thursday actually.



Dang, it's like you are clairvoyant of something.....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

This model by Eric Fisher on Twitter merely reinforces what I've been saying on here and in the Met Shack for the potential on the 16th. 

It could possibly get real bumpy.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 8, 2017)

Hope this storm fizzles out, I'm taking care of my grandmother and she's bed ridden at the moment, which will make going into the basement about impossible. So here's to hoping


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Hope this storm fizzles out, I'm taking care of my grandmother and she's bed ridden at the moment, which will make going into the basement about impossible. So here's to hoping



I doubt it will fizzle out, but these cells will be hit and miss. This isn't like an organized outbreak. However, the cold front is bringing the winds and they will last all day tomorrow also.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This model by Eric Fisher on Twitter merely reinforces what I've been saying on here and in the Met Shack for the potential on the 16th.
> 
> It could possibly get real bumpy.



I assume the purplish / white blob right over my house isn't indicative of sunshine and rainbows, huh?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I assume the purplish / white blob right over my house isn't indicative of sunshine and rainbows, huh?



You might get to see Dorothy and Toto.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

SPC just updated their discussion for tonights weather. I knew they'd see it my way eventually. 

  The Slight Risk area has been expanded southwestward across middle
   TN and northern/central AL, as clearing across this area may support
   convective initiation a little sooner than previously forecast, and
   southward across parts of central GA where a line of storms may pose
   an organized damaging wind threat this evening into the early
   overnight hours. The Marginal Risk area across southern GA and
   northern FL has been maintained with no changes. Across this region,
   possible convective development this afternoon in the presence of
   greater surface dewpoints (mid 60s) may pose an isolated large
   hail/gusty wind threat given moderate instability and bulk shear.

   ..Gleason.. 02/08/2017


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Starting to fire up in NE TN. 1" hail will put a sho-nuff pop knot on your head.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Latest run of the GFS is a total miss for the 16th. It takes the LPS across Florida and out to the Atlantic. Ridiculous.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

2055z 63°f. Not thinking this is a good sign. Temps edging up when they should be going down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

First STS watch is up by the SPC.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Glad to see the NWS getting on board with my prog'd areas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Starting to pick up now.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 8, 2017)

Mig, I ain't too worried about the Smokies right now. Should I be? They calling for severe storms tonight turning to snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Mig, I ain't too worried about the Smokies right now. Should I be? They calling for severe storms tonight turning to snow.



It's gonna get bumpy. 

I run GRLevel 3 radar. I just downloaded the trial run of GRLevel 2 Analyst to see if it will benefit my abilities. So far I like it, but dang it's a bit of spare change to keep it after 21 days. This is a tornado warned cell in Alabama right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Y'all would not believe how fast this stuff if moving.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

It's eerily calm right now up here near Chattanooga. 59 degrees and the local apps have taken out any chance of storms, lol.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 8, 2017)

Nearly every met I follow on twitter has complained today about the number of people who can't point out where they live on a map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It's eerily calm right now up here near Chattanooga. 59 degrees and the local apps have taken out any chance of storms, lol.



You will find out in about an hour and a half. They are moving at a good clip across Bama.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 8, 2017)

59 here in Woodstock. My useless weather app says Tstorms until 12am with a drop to 56°. I hope everyone stays safe and there's not too much damage


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Nearly every met I follow on twitter has complained today about the number of people who can't point out where they live on a map.



It is true. People are idiots. A Met will put up a tornado sig on a map and tell which direction it is heading and invariably some idiot will as if that's headed towards his backyard. 

I did a test with a blank map on it on Facebook. Not many responded, probably out of embarrassment. 

I got the motts now though Joey..... I can see into the storm and tell whether it is most likely on the ground or not. Got one in Bama I'm watching that isn't STS warned yet and it is already forming a wall cloud.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 8, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It is true. People are idiots. A Met will put up a tornado sig on a map and tell which direction it is heading and invariably some idiot will as if that's headed towards his backyard.
> 
> I did a test with a blank map on it on Facebook. Not many responded, probably out of embarrassment.
> 
> I got the motts now though Joey..... I can see into the storm and tell whether it is most likely on the ground or not. Got one in Bama I'm watching that isn't STS warned yet and it is already forming a wall cloud.



I did a test map with people at work and they were waaaaaay off.  One guy pointed at Oglethorpe saying it was Gwinnett, another picked Newton for Fulton.

GR2Analyst looks sweet, but $250 is indeed a big chunk of change.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

keithsto said:


> I did a test map with people at work and they were waaaaaay off.  One guy pointed at Oglethorpe saying it was Gwinnett, another picked Newton for Fulton.
> 
> GR2Analyst looks sweet, but $250 is indeed a big chunk of change.


Yes, but with my passion for weather, I might have to rob every piggy bank in the house. I look at it this way, it's a dang site cheaper than a center console boat.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Getting dangerous in N. Alabama right now. These cells are getting brave and dropping below 4k ft. Rotation in two that I have identified. Nothing to the ground yet.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Hope it stays away from NW Georgia. I hate this weather.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Hope it stays away from NW Georgia. I hate this weather.



So far they are behaving and no storm reports other than some 1/2" hail have shown up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be
   overspreading the TN valley and northern Gulf states as exit region
   of digging mid-level jet quickly approaches.  Convection has
   gradually increased within this zone just ahead of a
   sharpening/surging cold front.  00z soundings BMX and BNA exhibit
   modest mid-level lapse rates, but adequate buoyancy for robust
   convection given the strong bulk shear observed.  Isolated
   supercells remain possible within an elongated corridor of
   near-frontal convection and the most likely severe threat is
   damaging winds.  However, marginally severe hail could be noted with
   longer-lived rotating updrafts.  Overall severe threat should spread
   east-southeast across the remainder of ww31 by 05z.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   455 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Alabama
     Northwest Georgia
     Far western North Carolina
     Middle and eastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight
     CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing along a cold front from
   middle Tennessee into northern Alabama should pose a risk for
   isolated severe storms, mainly in the form of damaging winds, this
   evening as they spread eastward towards the southern Appalachians.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
   statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of
   Crossville TN to 50 miles south southeast of Huntsville AL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Hey Smokey. Nothing severe heading your way, but that front is about to hit Chattinoogi and it is bringing close to 60mph winds with it. Tie your patio umbrella down.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Thanks miggy. Going to batten down the hatches. Still and calm right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Thanks miggy. Going to batten down the hatches. Still and calm right now.



The entire front seams to be losing it's punch.......for now. 
Still 60°f here.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Starting to blow and lots of lightning now


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Starting to blow and lots of lightning now



Free fireworks show.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Got a nervous young boy right now. Storms have freaked him out ever since the 2011 outbreak.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Got a nervous young boy right now. Storms have freaked him out ever since the 2011 outbreak.



Here's a 3d section of your cell. Well above 10k ft. but has some good lift with most likely some small hail in it. Good velocity driving the leading edge.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Wow. That's a cool graphic. Really booming here now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Rain coming down hard all of a sudden!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Wow. That's a cool graphic. Really booming here now.



So much for the apps!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

That's the hardest rain I've seen in years.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> That's the hardest rain I've seen in years.



How was the wind, it should be settling in for the rest of the night.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Wind was insane for about 5 minutes. Now we are down to a gentle breeze and rain.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 8, 2017)

I'm in Asheville NC.  That front is about to hit our area just north of rock spring Ga.  Wife says it is getting bad.  Glad to see no rotation on Radar.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm in Asheville NC.  That front is about to hit our area just north of rock spring Ga.  Wife says it is getting bad.  Glad to see no rotation on Radar.



Watching a cell that is about to pass between Trion and Chatooga that does have rotation but it is at 30-40k ft. Not a threat to anyone other than some wind and small hail.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Wind is starting to pick up again here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Wind is starting to pick up again here.



It's there to stay until late tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Starting to pick up, heading towards Floyd then Bartow County. This one has the potential to get a severe warning soon if it keeps building.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

Gotta sign out. Y'all keep your eyes and ears open.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 8, 2017)

Got rough in Cartersville for a minute... Didn't last long enough


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Feb 8, 2017)

Got really bad in Gainesville


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 8, 2017)

Raining and thundering something fierce in Woodstock. I hate these types of storms they make me a nervous wreck.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 8, 2017)

turkeyhunter835 said:


> Got really bad in Gainesville


Damage?


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 8, 2017)

Rain has stopped but wind is howling near Chattanooga


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 8, 2017)

bring on the thunder snow!


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Feb 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Damage?



Not really, brought one tree down in my backyard and blew some of my kids toys around. I normally sleep through storms but that one woke me up quick, going today to get my weather radio.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 9, 2017)

Hope this is it for a while with the severe stuff.


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Feb 9, 2017)

turkeyhunter835 said:


> Not really, brought one tree down in my backyard and blew some of my kids toys around. I normally sleep through storms but that one woke me up quick, going today to get my weather radio.



Let me change thT... going to get radio number 2, the one I have is 12 years or so old.... can't hurt to have. Newer one


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 9, 2017)

Nippy this morning, I love it. Hope everyone was safe, wind was crazy by me


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 9, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Nippy this morning, I love it. Hope everyone was safe, wind was crazy by me



I like it too! I just like cold weather ... Well the GA cold, probably not what they get up around NCHibillys place


----------



## Mountainbuck (Feb 9, 2017)

Where's the snow


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Feb 9, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> Where's the snow



In New York.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 9, 2017)

Crazy weather. Was out on the porch in a tshirt last night, woke up at midnight with a hard thunderstorm. Got up at 5 and it was starting to pour snow. Had nearly an inch when I left at 6. Wind will blow the tattoos off your arm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

Nothing to it. Didn't even get to use my new toy that much. I will tell y'all that last warned cell on the north side of the perimeter did have rotation down to about 4k feet though. If it had been 10°f warmer yesterday it would have been a totally different story last night. 

And yes, there is more to come. February, March and April are the most active tornado months for Georgia so get used to it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

Some of you boys are living in the wrong place.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 9, 2017)

I'm guessing the temps are going to continue to rise? It's supposed to be 70° tomorrow. are we done with freezing temps and snow possibilities?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> I'm guessing the temps are going to continue to rise? It's supposed to be 70° tomorrow. are we done with freezing temps and snow possibilities?



Nope, not by a long shot. Here is the Euro map showing a strong NE Low and a weaker cut off low over the SE with high pressure blocking (I mentioned that in the met shack) out over the Atlantic. IF this blocking in the Atlantic actually sets up then the period around the 16th could get interesting. Where's DDD this morning? He's got to be salivating over this map fo sho.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 9, 2017)

Bring on the Blizzard...i want 1993 a


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on the Blizzard...i want 1993 a



Don't think we'll see a blizzard. Maybe a flake or two floating around, maybe, but right now it's a slim chance.

However, naders love this kind of setup.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 9, 2017)

Miggy,

How well has your weather station recorded wind speed?  I am not too confident in the accuracy of mine recording the wind gusts.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Miggy,
> 
> How well has your weather station recorded wind speed?  I am not too confident in the accuracy of mine recording the wind gusts.



Because of the placement of my wx station I know it is not accurate. I have an ideal location, but I'm not willing to drill holes in the ridge of my roof 40 ft. up to put it there. That and needing lightning protection for it up there keep me satisfied with the results I get. 

My strongest gust thus far recorded is 13 mph. I know for a fact by hearing the house creak and moan and the shingles rattle that is way off.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nope, not by a long shot. Here is the Euro map showing a strong NE Low and a weaker cut off low over the SE with high pressure blocking (I mentioned that in the met shack) out over the Atlantic. IF this blocking in the Atlantic actually sets up then the period around the 16th could get interesting. Where's DDD this morning? He's got to be salivating over this map fo sho.



Looks like he pen paling Glenn Burns on Twitter... I think he just needs a good Blizzard for reassurance


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

ChrisLakeCountry said:


> Looks like he pen paling Glenn Burns on Twitter... I think he just needs a good Blizzard for reassurance


----------



## keithsto (Feb 9, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Because of the placement of my wx station I know it is not accurate. I have an ideal location, but I'm not willing to drill holes in the ridge of my roof 40 ft. up to put it there. That and needing lightning protection for it up there keep me satisfied with the results I get.
> 
> My strongest gust thus far recorded is 13 mph. I know for a fact by hearing the house creak and moan and the shingles rattle that is way off.




I'm in the same boat.  I am on the top of a hill with my station in the backyard on a fence post.  No trees or anything else to obstruct it.  But, my roof is metal, so I ain't bout that life of getting up there and drilling holes.  My max wind speed recorded is 24mph.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

keithsto said:


> I'm in the same boat.  I am on the top of a hill with my station in the backyard on a fence post.  No trees or anything else to obstruct it.  But, my roof is metal, so I ain't bout that life of getting up there and drilling holes.  My max wind speed recorded is 24mph.



Mine is on the back deck, 14 ft off the ground, but plenty of trees around. Your's is closer to accurate given it's environment. One thing I have noticed is the rain gauge is fairly useless when it's raining sideways.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

5 days without a post on the Facebook Phenom's page. 
Surely he would be screaming blizzard by now with this impending setup!!! 

I have friends in Lumpkin County, perhaps I should check the jail and see if he's in the pokey?


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2017)

hmmmm.....  The GFS is close to the right track for a system to come in here a week from tomorrow.

However, the EURO and the CMC are way far north.

As has been discussed by myself, the mexican and a certain Atlanta MET this morning on Twitter, the GFS is a loose cannon on the ship of the weather models lately.  So I have to take it with a grain of salt.

Given the GFS's track of the LPS in the long range, in my mind it's perfect.  It's showing suppressed south right now and it will come back N or NW as the time draws closer. 

Right now though, I defer to the EURO and it is warm and not that wet, so it's probably more believable until the GFS proves it wrong.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> hmmmm.....  The GFS is close to the right track for a system to come in here a week from tomorrow.
> 
> However, the EURO and the CMC are way far north.
> 
> ...



GFS is in the sauce.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 9, 2017)

This winter sucketh so far.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> hmmmm.....  The GFS is close to the right track for a system to come in here a week from tomorrow.
> 
> However, the EURO and the CMC are way far north.
> 
> ...





keithsto said:


> GFS is in the sauce.



The GFS run that just finished takes the LPS across central Florida. We ain't gettin no snow out of a storm that far south. 

Mark my word. Three days out the GFS will come around, but by then the EURO will have spelled out the success or fate of this system, and the NAM will corroborate. 

I honestly believe *******i is correct. The MJO has the GFS all screwed up. Which means, there is a human or group of humans inputting flawed data into the system that aren't on board with the program yet. 

For now I'm sticking with the positive forecast that the NAO and AO will spike negative around the 16th and then pray for Atlantic Blocking. Nature will do the rest.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 9, 2017)

Even if there's no snow possible I'd at least settle for some low daytime temps. Weather today is lovely, 41° and blue skies


----------



## DDD (Feb 9, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Even if there's no snow possible I'd at least settle for some low daytime temps. Weather today is lovely, 41° and blue skies



I don't know about lovely... it's windy out there.


----------



## malak05 (Feb 9, 2017)

Not much to do for Winter at this point but to cheer on the GFS and hope it scores but even with GFS at this point got to work on the PV and the cold being in place but it's make progress on that in past few runs...maybe Euro will come abroad?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> I don't know about lovely... it's windy out there.



For what it's worth, the MJO has us on the dry side through the 23rd, which would make the GFS right.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> I don't know about lovely... it's windy out there.



Not so windy by me, just some mild gusts here and there and  then more of a constant breeze, it's actually quite pleasant


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 9, 2017)

Good 15 mph constant wind here. Gusts up higher every so often.


----------



## fountain (Feb 9, 2017)

I sure would love rain like we got this week...weekly!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 9, 2017)

Guess this place will be rather dull for a while....


----------



## malak05 (Feb 9, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Guess this place will be rather dull for a while....



Nah... may pick up in a few days that system in 7-9 window still out there and cold air on latest GFS runs is trending better and Euro made a slight move maybe for first time today toward GFS but still a long way out, especially the way this winter has went. Super-Suppressed storm by GFS currently which in this time frame is perfectly fine it usually  has tendency to do this with certain systems and ultimately start jogging NW as it comes closer. I imagine if Euro and CMC continues to trend somewhat toward GFS similar look then by Saturday/Sunday Triple D will have plenty to say... 

here's Kirk Mellish latest for reference
http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/02/09/old-man-winter-rabbit-trick/


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 9, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Nah... may pick up in a few days that system in 7-9 window still out there and cold air on latest GFS runs is trending better and Euro made a slight move maybe for first time today toward GFS but still a long way out, especially the way this winter has went. Super-Suppressed storm by GFS currently which in this time frame is perfectly fine it usually  has tendency to do this with certain systems and ultimately start jogging NW as it comes closer. I imagine if Euro and CMC continues to trend somewhat toward GFS similar look then by Saturday/Sunday Triple D will have plenty to say...
> 
> here's Kirk Mellish latest for reference
> http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/02/09/old-man-winter-rabbit-trick/



Hope it comes to pass!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 9, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Nah... may pick up in a few days that system in 7-9 window still out there and cold air on latest GFS runs is trending better and Euro made a slight move maybe for first time today toward GFS but still a long way out, especially the way this winter has went. Super-Suppressed storm by GFS currently which in this time frame is perfectly fine it usually  has tendency to do this with certain systems and ultimately start jogging NW as it comes closer. I imagine if Euro and CMC continues to trend somewhat toward GFS similar look then by Saturday/Sunday Triple D will have plenty to say...
> 
> here's Kirk Mellish latest for reference
> http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/02/09/old-man-winter-rabbit-trick/



A move towards the GFS is bad. The Euro held the best track. The GFS is now taking the system across south Florida. That doesn't bode well for any weather for us. 

NAO and AO are in our favor, all we need is some blocking in the atlantic to force that low slowly up through the bama / ga state line and it'll be real interesting. Looking for better solutions by the end of the weekend.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

Not much confidence from me for the 16th. However I mentioned the period of around the 23rd way back in the archives. Yeah it's 13 days out, but if this holds this is a monster. I would even label it a potential Super Outbreak, IF it verifies. 

Oceanic, Maritime charts indicate a more zonal flow coming and bringing with it some powerful stuff. Trying to prognosticate systems from the Pacific to the Southeast is tricky at best, but the GFS for once is actually on board with this one. It seems I forgot from years past that the GFS handles severe weather relatively good and the Euro is king for winter events. 

So here we go. I will show a series of maps with a LPS and plenty of mid-70 temps sucking gulf moisture up through our gut here in the SE. The series shows this thing growing into a monster 998mb low before it even finishes crossing Alabama. By the time it drops off of the Coast at Savannah it has dropped another 8mb. That is strong folks, and it is big by that point. Wrap around temps will be borderline on the freezing mark with air on the back side being sucked straight down from the Great Lakes. 

You don't get systems like this without something newsworthy coming out of them. If you don't have a weather radio by now, don't say I haven't given you plenty of warning this winter. You have a week to go get one now. 

As we get closer and it looks to verify my info on it will be in the Met Shack. Get used to going there when you see me post a link in here. 

Enjoy the Clown Maps.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Feb 10, 2017)

Miggy forgive me but would this be a winter weather event or severe weather? Thru me off when you mentioned the weather radio. Thanks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

Mountainbuck said:


> Miggy forgive me but would this be a winter weather event or severe weather? Thru me off when you mentioned the weather radio. Thanks!



I'm not a fluffy stuff prognosticator. That is DDD's affliction.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

Allow me to drag you down from the jet stream to better understand this setup. 
Map #1 = Zonal 500mb jet at 100+mph
Map #2 = Strong trough 700mb winds at 75+mph
Map #3 = 850mb winds west to east at near 50mph
Map #4 = 2m agl winds dead out of the south at 10mph

If anything the lighter winds at the surface work in our favor, but lifting mechanisms can overcome that. It bears watching for sure.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 10, 2017)

Dang. All I want is some snow. Keep the Armageddon-inducing severe weather far, far away.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Dang. All I want is some snow. Keep the Armageddon-inducing severe weather far, far away.



We're just gettin started. Wait til April!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

You know you live in Maine when you look out the window and see this!!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> We're just gettin started. Wait til April!!!



This is why I shake my head when people run around yelling "come on spring!!!"


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Feb 10, 2017)

Cool picture of the snow. Kind of looks like sand art.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> This is why I shake my head when people run around yelling "come on spring!!!"



We've had a very dull spring for many years now. It's time it changes the cycle. I gotz to put this new toy to work.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

$27.00 and free delivery if you're a Prime Member. 

The best $27 you will ever spend.

https://smile.amazon.com/Midland-We...1486735365&sr=8-2&keywords=same+weather+radio


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> $27.00 and free delivery if you're a Prime Member.
> 
> The best $27 you will ever spend.
> 
> https://smile.amazon.com/Midland-We...1486735365&sr=8-2&keywords=same+weather+radio




Why yes...I am a Prime member!

Arriving 2/12/17. Thanks Mig...


----------



## snookdoctor (Feb 10, 2017)

I don't follow radio technology, so here's a question about the wx radios.

My SAME radio is about 10 years old. Midland WR120, same as the one in your link. Is there any benefit in buying a new one, or would they still be about the same?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Why yes...I am a Prime member!
> 
> Arriving 2/12/17. Thanks Mig...





snookdoctor said:


> I don't follow radio technology, so here's a question about the wx radios.
> 
> My SAME radio is about 10 years old. Midland WR120, same as the one in your link. Is there any benefit in buying a new one, or would they still be about the same?


The technology is better in the newer ones. There is one model above that one that is in the $40 range that is even better. If yours still works good then no need to change it. The important part is to program them so they only alert you to impending weather in your direct vicinity.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The technology is better in the newer ones. There is one model above that one that is in the $40 range that is even better. If yours still works good then no need to change it. The important part is to program them so they only alert you to impending weather in your direct vicinity.



This is where living smack dab on the county line gets annoying.


----------



## snookdoctor (Feb 10, 2017)

keithsto said:


> This is where living smack dab on the county line gets annoying.



That depends on which way the wind blows.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

keithsto said:


> This is where living smack dab on the county line gets annoying.


I'm about 5 miles from my western county line and it can become bothersome, especially when I'm locked in on the radar and I know exactly what's going where. 


snookdoctor said:


> That depends on which way the wind blows.



Typically that will be from the SW, but occasionally from the West.


----------



## adavis (Feb 10, 2017)

*Ughh!!*



Miguel Cervantes said:


> We're just gettin started. Wait til April!!!



Travel softball is getting started for the spring for my daughters! I welcome the warmer temperatures but the wacky nader stuff can stay away!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 10, 2017)

Twitter mets are starting to give this system some attention.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 10, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Twitter mets are starting to give this system some attention.



Dang, that means it will somehow fade away.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dang, that means it will somehow fade away.



No, that's only if our MIA Facebook forecaster chimes in.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 11, 2017)

Anything new in the models?


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 11, 2017)

Well, DDD said on twitter that he is throwing in the towel for winter in the southeast. Dang it......


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 12, 2017)

Where did everyone go?


----------



## keithsto (Feb 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Where did everyone go?



Fishin'?


----------



## nickel back (Feb 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Where did everyone go?



You need to move, like to North Dakota


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 12, 2017)

nickel back said:


> You need to move, like to North Dakota



Because I asked where everyone went, I need to move to North Dakota? Um, ok.....


----------



## jbird1 (Feb 12, 2017)

Looking forward to that big March snow....


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 12, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Looking forward to that big March snow....



Sounds like we both need to move to North Dakota.


----------



## jbird1 (Feb 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Sounds like we both need to move to North Dakota.



Well...there was 83', 93', and 09' March snows off the top of my head...there is still some chance...albeit a small one.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 12, 2017)

This is just depressing. And I thought last winter was awful, at least we had cooler weather. today I was stung by a wasp while walking my dogs. Ive never seen a wasp/bee in Georgia this time of year


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 12, 2017)

It's funny you mention wasps. I came across one today while gassing up the car.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 12, 2017)

They are everywhere.There's a pond on my property and starting last night I've been hearing a ton of frogs, which is just crazy for this time of year. I usually don't hear them until spring


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 12, 2017)

I sure hope this warm weather doesn't equal catastrophic storms this spring


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Looking forward to that big March snow....



It's gonna happen, somewhere, probably Siberia!


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 12, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's gonna happen, somewhere, probably Siberia! [/QUOTE
> 
> Dang good call


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 12, 2017)

Haven't forgotten you boys, just been busy plus watchin the weather everyday for a system that is still 10 or 11 days out doesn't do much. 

In so much as that system around the 22nd goes, still too early to put much stock in the clown maps, however it is still showing signs of being a trouble maker, though much broader in scope. The LPS over the SE has been absorbed by the larger low up over Michigan. 

What is concerning me on the latest run of the GFS is the tilt of the trough. It is showing projections of the potential to become negatively tilted trough.

Why is this bad you ask? Well glad you asked. Negative tilted troughs bring with them differential advection. This is cooler air in the middle and upper layers interacting with warmer moist air at the surface. This creates a higher potential for thermo dynamic instability. 

It's simple physics, warm air rises and cool air sinks. This in and of itself is bad. Add in cold air aloft moving in one direction and warm air below moving in a different direction and you get dual axis rotation from the varying dynamics at play. 

Currently the bulk shear is in the 65 to 85 kt range. The worst shear is showing to happen over S. AL and S. GA. All of this is nothing more than speculation so far because we are so far out and hopefully it will go the way of the rest of the GFS models. Here one day, gone the next. 

Keeping my eye on it, just no reason to update it every day until we get about 3 or 4 days out and it is still there. Then there'll be something worth chawin and spittin over.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 13, 2017)

So has the 16-17th system completely disappeared? Just wondering because it looks like I'll be heading up towards Asheville this coming weekend and was wondering if I would see any white stuff up in that direction.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

ChrisLakeCountry said:


> So has the 16-17th system completely disappeared? Just wondering because it looks like I'll be heading up towards Asheville this coming weekend and was wondering if I would see any white stuff up in that direction.



I wouldn't count on it, unless you get up on the Blue Ridge Parkway and drive a while.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 13, 2017)

ChrisLakeCountry said:


> So has the 16-17th system completely disappeared? Just wondering because it looks like I'll be heading up towards Asheville this coming weekend and was wondering if I would see any white stuff up in that direction.



They're saying rain turning to snow showers tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, nothing for precip much the 16th-17th in the local forecasts, though. Warm and nice for the weekend.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I wouldn't count on it, unless you get up on the Blue Ridge Parkway and drive a while.





NCHillbilly said:


> They're saying rain turning to snow showers tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, nothing for precip much the 16th-17th in the local forecasts, though. Warm and nice for the weekend.



Thanks guys, works for me. That's the great thing about North Carolina its beautiful no matter what time of year it is and something to do if its snowy and cold or warm and sunny. Just don't want the Georgia classic cold and rainy


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

Here is what is referred to as a negatively tilted trough. 

As long as it stays oriented deep into the gulf I am not too concerned. If it shallows up to make the turn around S. to Mid AL then I'll get a little more worried. So far SB Cape values and LI (lifted index) are not too bad. 

I put a red line on the map to show the negative tilt.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 13, 2017)

Man, I truly hope none of that pans out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Man, I truly hope none of that pans out.



Tis the season that is rapidly approaching, where cold air aloft (winter remnants) collide with spring weather attempting to come in from the SSW. It's just the nature of the beast.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Tis the season that is rapidly approaching, where cold air aloft (winter remnants) collide with spring weather attempting to come in from the SSW. It's just the nature of the beast.



Yeah, I know it's just mother nature doing what she does. I just hate the loss of life and property that always results somewhere at some point. There are areas near me that simply never rebuilt and nature is reclaiming.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

Pray for these folks out in California. The Oroville Dam is over capacity and the emergency spillway is in use. Almost 200,000 have been ordered to evacuate downstream. The worst is yet to come. A potential for nearly six more inches of rain is forecast for this reservoir drainage basin over the next few days. I certainly hope and pray this dam doesn't become compromised.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 13, 2017)

Read this morning that it was no longer going over the emergency spillway.  Hope they can release enough today and tomorrow to get ahead of all that rain they're likely to get later in the week.


----------



## malak05 (Feb 13, 2017)

I try not to buy into hype but this Feb. 20-22 window for severe weather as models currently show could be a very bad one, still 8-9 days out but the way the models have the Subtropical Jet running around 100+ knots and cold air aloft and warm tropical low, Miggy's business might pick-up pretty strong in the next few days these conditions are sometimes hard to come by even in Spring.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 13, 2017)

Hopefully it will be nothing more than a few days of good rain and breezes. I know the ponds and creeks around me are finally starting to return to normal and could use a good topping off.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

malak05 said:


> I try not to buy into hype but this Feb. 20-22 window for severe weather as models currently show could be a very bad one, still 8-9 days out but the way the models have the Subtropical Jet running around 100+ knots and cold air aloft and warm tropical low, Miggy's business might pick-up pretty strong in the next few days these conditions are sometimes hard to come by even in Spring.



So far it's a non-issue. Covered it pretty good earlier. As long as the trough keeps digging deep into the gulf all of the potential trouble causing advection will stay well to our south. Hoping it stays that way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

You SOWEGA folks need to mind the weather on Wednesday. Nicodemus!!!

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10606613#post10606613


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 13, 2017)

Live streaming of the situation in N. California. Not good thus far.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Feb 13, 2017)

Mig. Read my sig line. Lol

Pic of what's happening offshore up North.


----------



## nickel back (Feb 14, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Because I asked where everyone went, I need to move to North Dakota? Um, ok.....



No, cause you love winter, cold weather, and snow


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 14, 2017)

nickel back said:


> No, cause you love winter, cold weather, and snow



Right. A normal Georgia winter (sometimes).


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Right. A normal Georgia winter (sometimes).



About every 10 years or so.

You pay attention long enough you figure out Mother Natures cycle. Same with severe weather. It used to run on a 10-11 year cycle. We'll see if that holds true this spring. If it gets real active that cycle may be taking a detour to 7 years.


----------



## DCHunter (Feb 14, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> About every 10 years or so.
> 
> You pay attention long enough you figure out Mother Natures cycle. Same with severe weather. It used to run on a 10-11 year cycle.



Why is that? Sun spot cycle or something?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2017)

From Spann on Twitter. Expect this to carry over into SOWEGA on Wednesday.


----------



## blondiega1 (Feb 14, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> From Spann on Twitter. Expect this to carry over into SOWEGA on Wednesday.




UGH!!
That area has been so devastated already!!









.


----------



## nickel back (Feb 14, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Right. A normal Georgia winter (sometimes).



not sure the last time Ga. had a winter.....


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 14, 2017)

nickel back said:


> not sure the last time Ga. had a winter.....



I can remember a few good ones!


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 14, 2017)

What's up


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 14, 2017)

Winter is over (hopefully).....move along!


----------



## Milkman (Feb 14, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Winter is over (hopefully).....move along!



Weather is still going to be around


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 14, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Winter is over (hopefully).....move along!



There's always a chance......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 14, 2017)

Weather will be moving in to SOWEGA earlier than the models indicated. Possibly as early as 4 or 5 am. Ya'll take care down that way.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 14, 2017)

Any long term things to discuss?


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 14, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Any long term things to discuss?



yes... its going to be hot in july and august ...lol


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 14, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> yes... its going to be hot in july and august ...lol



And March, April, May.......lol


----------



## nickel back (Feb 15, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> yes... its going to be hot in july and august ...lol



its been a hot winter( hotter than any other winter that I know of), I don't want to even think about how this summer is going to turn out


----------



## DCHunter (Feb 15, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> And March, April, May.......lol



And September, October


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 15, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> And March, April, May.......lol





nickel back said:


> its been a hot winter( hotter than any other winter that I know of), I don't want to even think about how this summer is going to turn out





DCHunter said:


> And September, October



Its going to be an unusually cool summer... Might have 3 days that break the 90f mark! Above average rain fall also


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 15, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Its going to be an unusually cool summer... Might have 3 days that break the 90f mark! Above average rain fall also



That sure would be nice!


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 15, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> That sure would be nice!



More fresh tomatoes than 100 men can eat in a year


----------



## Lukikus2 (Feb 15, 2017)

Went through a nader warning this afternoon. Thankfully just ended up being strong down drafts. Rearranged the patio furniture though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Went through a nader warning this afternoon. Thankfully just ended up being strong down drafts. Rearranged the patio furniture though.


Downdrafts / microburst can be more destructive than some tornadoes. Don't fool yourself. 

FWIW, for you snow lovers, Georgia is a subtropical climate. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Get used to it.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 16, 2017)

miguel cervantes said:


> downdrafts / microburst can be more destructive than some tornadoes. Don't fool yourself.
> 
> fwiw, for you snow lovers, georgia is a subtropical climate. Denial is not a river in egypt. Get used to it.



lol!!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 16, 2017)

26 and frozen here this morning with a nasty howling wind.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> 26 and frozen here this morning with a nasty howling wind.



Is that the wind or the moonbat liberals from down in Asheville?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 16, 2017)

Hey Miggy, how do you see the upcoming spring and summer looking? Hot and dry, mild and wet?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 16, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Is that the wind or the moonbat liberals from down in Asheville?



Both. Hot air coming from the latter, though.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Hey Miggy, how do you see the upcoming spring and summer looking? Hot and dry, mild and wet?



Bright in the daytime and dark in the evenings.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Feb 16, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Bright in the daytime and dark in the evenings.



Thanks, idjit.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Thanks, idjit.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 16, 2017)

For those of you wanting snow, folks in Maine are being generous.



>


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 16, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For those of you wanting snow, folks in Maine are being generous.



We need to start an exchange program. We'll provide the humidity, mosquitos, and ticks in exchange for their snow.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 16, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> For those of you wanting snow, folks in Maine are being generous.



How much would it cost to ship 100 dump trucks? I'm sure Smokey would go in on it?!


----------



## Nitram4891 (Feb 16, 2017)

ChrisLakeCountry said:


> How much would it cost to ship 100 dump trucks? I'm sure Smokey would go in on it?!



I brought back a truck bed of snow from michigan in college, we had a snowball fight in the middle of campus in 70 degree weather.  People were very confused.


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Feb 16, 2017)

Nitram4891 said:


> I brought back a truck bed of snow from michigan in college, we had a snowball fight in the middle of campus in 70 degree weather.  People were very confused.



haha Nice!!!


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 16, 2017)

Putting new foot oil in the boat and servicing it winters done bring on the fishing and daylight till 9!!


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 17, 2017)

Supposed to be low to mid 70's in the next few days....


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 17, 2017)

Well, I guess I'm with DDD. "Winter" 2016 can kiss my hiney. Hoping for a relatively calm spring with minimal storms.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 17, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Well, I guess I'm with DDD. "Winter" 2016 can kiss my hiney. Hoping for a relatively calm spring with minimal storms.



Why?
What's not to love? Birds singing, flowers blooming, fish biting, smell of fresh cut grass......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 17, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Why?
> What's not to love? Birds singing, flowers blooming, fish biting, smell of fresh cut grass......



Pollen clogging up your eyes, ears, nose and throat. Snot running everywhere, feeling like you're about to cough up a lung.

Yeah, spring is great!!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pollen clogging up your eyes, ears, nose and throat. Snot running everywhere, feeling like you're about to cough up a lung.
> 
> Yeah, spring is great!!!



Don't forget the humidity, heat exhaustion, mosquitos, wasps, snakes, and excessive cooling bills.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 17, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pollen clogging up your eyes, ears, nose and throat. Snot running everywhere, feeling like you're about to cough up a lung.
> 
> Yeah, spring is great!!!



Just curious, how much time did you spend outside as a very young child?  I've always heard a theory on pollen allergies that those not exposed to it enough at a very young age develop allergies. I was outside all the time and I could probably snort a line of the stuff off the hood of my truck and not sneeze.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 17, 2017)

I was outside all the time and wound up being so allergic I had to take allergy shots weekly for 5 years.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 17, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Just curious, how much time did you spend outside as a very young child?  I've always heard a theory on pollen allergies that those not exposed to it enough at a very young age develop allergies. I was outside all the time and I could probably snort a line of the stuff off the hood of my truck and not sneeze.



Till mom called me in for dinner. We didn't have high tech thumb operated devices, we had the woods.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 18, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Don't forget the humidity, heat exhaustion, mosquitos, wasps, snakes, and excessive cooling bills.



I have never spent a penny on "cooling bills" in my life. I spend a fortune on heating bills though. Bring on spring! I like snakes. 

I would just like to see one morning above freezing.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 18, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> I have never spent a penny on "cooling bills" in my life. I spend a fortune on heating bills though. Bring on spring! I like snakes.
> 
> I would just like to see one morning above freezing.



The never ending love hate conversation.... I would imagine we all would hate winter too if we lived up there and experienced the long never ending winters that you have! 
Summer here will usually push my power bill upwards of 400$ a month.... That gets old really quick!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 19, 2017)

Saw some twitter met chatter about the system coming in for the end of this coming week and that it may be a strong one. What say you, GON experts?


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Feb 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> The never ending love hate conversation.... I would imagine we all would hate winter too if we lived up there and experienced the long never ending winters that you have!
> Summer here will usually push my power bill upwards of 400$ a month.... That gets old really quick!



Some areas of north Ga have to heat in the winter and cool in the summer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> The never ending love hate conversation.... I would imagine we all would hate winter too if we lived up there and experienced the long never ending winters that you have!
> Summer here will usually push my power bill upwards of 400$ a month.... That gets old really quick!



Yep. I can stoke plenty of wood on the fire for a mere fraction of what AC cost to run and maintain.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 19, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Saw some twitter met chatter about the system coming in for the end of this coming week and that it may be a strong one. What say you, GON experts?



He's on crack. I talked about this system on post 255 or so. It has evolved to a powerful snow maker for the NE, but too far north to do much for us. 
If that changes I will be on it like a tumble bug on a fresh steaming.......well....never mind.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...
Showers expected Tuesday afternoon through Friday with isolated
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. *No severe storms are
expected at this time.*
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...


----------



## DDD (Feb 19, 2017)

Cold may come back with earnest in March.  Long range stuff is starting to hint at it.  Have to wait and see how it plays out.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 19, 2017)

DDD said:


> Cold may come back with earnest in March.  Long range stuff is starting to hint at it.  Have to wait and see how it plays out.



Keep it... I've already made the transition from winter to spring/ summer attire.... Tank top short shorts an flip flops


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 19, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Keep it... I've already made the transition from winter to spring/ summer attire.... Tank top short shorts an flip flops



You wearing those Daisy Dukes you wore turkey huntin?


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 19, 2017)

Mowed the yard again today and got rewarded by multiple mosquito bites.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 19, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Mowed the yard again today and got rewarded by multiple mosquito bites.



You sure seem to have a serious mosquito problem. Maybe some preventive measures are in order. I mow almost 8 acres all spring, summer, and early fall and may get bit 5 times all year. And we have two ponds and are within 1/2 mile of the hooch.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 20, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> You sure seem to have a serious mosquito problem. Maybe some preventive measures are in order. I mow almost 8 acres all spring, summer, and early fall and may get bit 5 times all year. And we have two ponds and are within 1/2 mile of the hooch.



there are nearly 80 acres of swampland behind me. I've tried all the lawn sprays and citronella and what not and nothing seems to work. It can be the middle of winter and I'm swatting the darn things.


----------



## jbird1 (Feb 20, 2017)

DDD said:


> Cold may come back with earnest in March.  Long range stuff is starting to hint at it.  Have to wait and see how it plays out.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 20, 2017)

DDD said:


> Cold may come back with earnest in March.  Long range stuff is starting to hint at it.  Have to wait and see how it plays out.



Winter this year is like that hot girl in high school who strung you along just to torture you....................


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 20, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Winter this year is like that hot girl in high school who strung you along just to torture you....................



Yea, and 95% of the time when you catch her it ain't all it was made out to be!


----------



## blondiega1 (Feb 20, 2017)

We've been seeing and hearing Sandhills heading north for a couple of weeks now.
Nature sure seems to think winter is over.






.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 20, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> We've been seeing and hearing Sandhills heading north for a couple of weeks now.
> Nature sure seems to think winter is over.
> 
> 
> ...



I saw a pile of em at lunch today!


----------



## CamoDawg85 (Feb 20, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> We've been seeing and hearing Sandhills heading north for a couple of weeks now.
> Nature sure seems to think winter is over.
> 
> .



Been seeing this on and off for about 2 wks now. I think they know a little more than we do


----------



## elfiii (Feb 20, 2017)

CamoDawg85 said:


> Been seeing this on and off for about 2 wks now. I think they know a little more than we do



They are the for sure sign Spring is about to spring, sprang, sprung.


----------



## CamoDawg85 (Feb 20, 2017)

elfiii said:


> They are the for sure sign Spring is about to spring, sprang, sprung.



I knew you were going to say that 

But, I'm still holding out for one more cold snap that brings white flakes!   Then let the hook-wetting begin!


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 21, 2017)

Ribeye in the sky!


----------



## DCHunter (Feb 21, 2017)

At this point I don't care if we get snow. I just want it to be cold enough to have an excuse to burn up the rest of this years firewood.


----------



## keithsto (Feb 21, 2017)

DCHunter said:


> At this point I don't care if we get snow. I just want it to be cold enough to have an excuse to burn up the rest of this years firewood.



What I have left is pushing two years old and burns so quick it almost isn't worth burning. Was hoping to have it burned up before winter was over.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 21, 2017)

I don`t put a lot of faith in sandhill cranes anymore as weather foretellers, since a lot of them stay in the south year around now to hatch and raise their young. Ricebirds are still fairly reliable though, and I haven`t seen any flocks of them yet this season, so we might still have a spell of winter weather. Possibly.

I wouldn`t be planting my spring and summer garden just yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 21, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I don`t put a lot of faith in sandhill cranes anymore as weather foretellers, since a lot of them stay in the south year around now to hatch and raise their young. Ricebirds are still fairly reliable though, and I haven`t seen any flocks of them yet this season, so we might still have a spell of winter weather. Possibly.
> 
> I wouldn`t be planting my spring and summer garden just yet.



Anyone that goes by anything other than the calendar and the moon to plant is crazy. Birds and Mother Nature will lie to you every time.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Feb 21, 2017)

The geese around here have already paired up for the spring. I expect to see some early hatches this year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 21, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> The geese around here have already paired up for the spring. I expect to see some early hatches this year.



Geese pair up for life, same pair always. 
Remember that when you go killin em.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Feb 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Geese pair up for life, same pair always.
> Remember that when you go killin em.



I do. I kill both.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Feb 21, 2017)

Dustin Pate said:


> I do. I kill both.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 21, 2017)

dustin pate said:


> i do. I kill both.



:d:d


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 21, 2017)

I had a pet goose when I was a kid. It followed me all the way to school and waited for me at the bike rack and followed me home. He was great, especially loved it when he pinched the jerk neighbor kids


----------



## MariettaDawg (Feb 22, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I don`t put a lot of faith in sandhill cranes anymore as weather foretellers, since a lot of them stay in the south year around now to hatch and raise their young. Ricebirds are still fairly reliable though, and I haven`t seen any flocks of them yet this season, so we might still have a spell of winter weather. Possibly.
> 
> I wouldn`t be planting my spring and summer garden just yet.



They've been streaming over Kennesaw Mountain for a few weeks now.  Winter's done.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 23, 2017)

Miggy/DDD - y'all believe what the GFS is preaching for second week of March?  Crazy cold snap with 3 days mid week where it won't get above freezing?  

May have to wait to de-winterize the camper.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 23, 2017)

I hope we'll still see some cold weather. Maybe we're just having a really, really late start. I'm not quite ready to give up yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 23, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy/DDD - y'all believe what the GFS is preaching for second week of March?  Crazy cold snap with 3 days mid week where it won't get above freezing?
> 
> May have to wait to de-winterize the camper.



It is certainly possible, for up where you are. Is it probable? Given the GFS history this winter? That is the question to which the answer remains to be seen. 

Thus far nothing the GFS has prog'd that far out has come to fruition.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Thus far nothing the GFS has prog'd that far out has come to fruition.



I disagree.  It's said many, many times that there was no snow forecasted two weeks out.  That's verified . . over . . . .and over. .. . and over.


----------



## fountain (Feb 23, 2017)

80° here now.  Already not loving it


----------



## Trigabby (Feb 23, 2017)

I got invited to rabbit hunt tomorrow...  We'll either heat stroke the dogs, the rabbits or us.  I'm carrying 2 gallons of water.  I might just hunt the road in shorts!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2017)

Trigabby said:


> I got invited to rabbit hunt tomorrow...  We'll either heat stroke the dogs, the rabbits or us.  I'm carrying 2 gallons of water.  I might just hunt the road in shorts!



I'd take an umbrella, a ground rod, and a good ratchet strap to tie myself to a tree, just in case.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 24, 2017)

Looks like a strong system may be moving in for mid-week next week. Anything to discuss on this yet?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like a strong system may be moving in for mid-week next week. Anything to discuss on this yet?



Let's get through surviving a rabbit hunt tomorrow first.


----------



## DDD (Feb 24, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like a strong system may be moving in for mid-week next week. Anything to discuss on this yet?



3" of rain will help the lakes and streams a lot.

now... 2 weeks down the road... Old man winter might be playing possum.  Maybe.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 24, 2017)

DDD said:


> 3" of rain will help the lakes and streams a lot.
> 
> now... 2 weeks down the road... Old man winter might be playing possum.  Maybe.



Must not get hopes up, must not get hopes up.........


----------



## hmaddox (Feb 24, 2017)

Wow, that would be crazy, just pulled my shorts out cause baby it is HOT outside!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Feb 24, 2017)

I'm gonna go ahead and predict an epic year for bear hunters this fall.  All the fruit and mast trees are going to blossom in false spring we're having and then the Old Man will come back and kill everything.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2017)

Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st. 

Jis sayin.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Feb 24, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I'm gonna go ahead and predict an epic year for bear hunters this fall.  All the fruit and mast trees are going to blossom in false spring we're having and then the Old Man will come back and kill everything.



It certainly won't be the first time. One of the prettiest sights I've seen is blooming dogwoods and 6" of snow


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 24, 2017)

All this purdy weather sure makes for boring roof sittin! Bring on the storms!


----------



## Matthew6 (Feb 24, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Must not get hopes up, must not get hopes up.........



winter is oooooohhhhhhhver.


----------



## DDD (Feb 24, 2017)

This should kill just about everything.  24 hours below freezing without coming out?  

That should get it done.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 24, 2017)

DDD said:


> This should kill just about everything.  24 hours below freezing without coming out?
> 
> That should get it done.





How far south that gonna go?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2017)

DDD said:


> This should kill just about everything.  24 hours below freezing without coming out?
> 
> That should get it done.



It's the GFS.


----------



## DDD (Feb 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's the GFS.



Yeah... but it's OUR GFS.


----------



## DDD (Feb 24, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> How far south that gonna go?



Here you go Nic.


----------



## Nicodemus (Feb 24, 2017)

DDD said:


> Here you go Nic.





Thank you kindly! Glad I always wait till Good Friday to plant my summer garden.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Feb 24, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> All this purdy weather sure makes for boring roof sittin! Bring on the storms!



Be careful what you wish for. We are in a trough.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 24, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Be careful what you wish for. We are in a trough.



Can you say Dynamic Tropopause? Nothing like the troposphere threatening to pay us peons way down here on the surface a visit.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 24, 2017)

Translation please!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Feb 25, 2017)

Warm with pretty good thunderboomers here this morning, and supposed to be down to 25 tonight.


----------



## snookdoctor (Feb 25, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Translation please!



It means:
Take the bench seat out of the old van in the back yard, complete with seat belts, bolt it to the basement floor, and be able to strap you and yer family in real quick when the sirens go off.
..........and wear some good helmets, too.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 25, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> It means:
> Take the bench seat out of the old van in the back yard, complete with seat belts, bolt it to the basement floor, and be able to strap you and yer family in real quick when the sirens go off.
> ..........and wear some good helmets, too.



No, it means it is going to be cold around the 6th - 8th of March. 

When naders are threatening the banter will be significantly more elevated. 

Our level of the atmosphere is the Troposhere. The layer above that is the Stratosphere. The space between the two is called the Tropopause. The tropopause is much closer to sea level in the Arctic region and much higher in altitude at the Equator. Occasionally the polar jet, or Arctic Oscillation brings that lower altitude tropopause down our way. This is called a Dynamic Tropopause event. Were this to happen in late March or April then it would be much greater concern for severe potential, but at this point the instability isn't of that great a concern. There will be a chance for icy conditions in extreme NE GA and Snow in NCHillbilly's neck of the woods (cause he loves winter so much) but at present the concern for a severe outbreak isn't there. 

The GFS has actually moderated it's forecast for this event slightly over the last 24 hours of run, but it's still going to be much colder than we have experienced over the last week or so. So don't clean out the fireplace just yet or put your winter cloths into storage.


----------



## hmaddox (Feb 25, 2017)

Any frozen precip or just cold temps?


----------



## snookdoctor (Feb 25, 2017)

Well, it probably wouldn't hurt to have that van seat bolted to your floor, or to your roof, ready for use. It's hard to install things when the house starts spinning around.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Feb 26, 2017)

32° last night.It was lovely. I opened all my windows


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 26, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> 32° last night.It was lovely. I opened all my windows



I did to ... Had the fan on high also


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 26, 2017)

I mowed the yard for the third time and barely broke a sweat. Truly enjoying this. About to go wash the wife's car and my muddy truck.


----------



## blood on the ground (Feb 26, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I mowed the yard for the third time and barely brokena sweat. Truly enjoying this. About to go wash the wife's car and my muddy truck.



Im about to mow for the 2nd time... Only good thing about 98 degree temps is my fescue stops growing and im not mowing


----------



## fountain (Feb 26, 2017)

DDD said:


> 3" of rain will help the lakes and streams a lot.
> 
> now... 2 weeks down the road... Old man winter might be playing possum.  Maybe.




What's this 3" of rain you're talking about and when is the arrival date?  I sure would like to see it


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2017)

fountain said:


> What's this 3" of rain you're talking about and when is the arrival date?  I sure would like to see it



3" might be a stretch, but a solid 1.5" is a possibility.
Severe potential is not high, but it is nominal.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 27, 2017)

Paul Barys says we are in the enhanced threat zone in my neck of the woods. Swell.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 27, 2017)

Looks like Miggy's menopausal troposphere may not have as big a show next week.  GFS seems to have backed off a bit.


----------



## fountain (Feb 27, 2017)

yea, still 10 days out though, but intellicast is showing 42 for the coldest next Wednesday and only a 50% chance of rain this week.  sure hope we get it


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 27, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Looks like Miggy's menopausal troposphere may not have as big a show next week.  GFS seems to have backed off a bit.



Yes, I stated that in my last sentence in that post. 

The GFS giveth and then the GFS taketh away. It's been the trend of going on 8 months now. Somebody needs to reprogram their algorithm. 

All that being said, the warm air moving up from the GoM is going to make for some interesting dynamics when the cold air clashes with it later this week, and yes you folks up in the NW corner of GA are in the edge of the enhanced area. Keep your heads on a swivel. 

My only observance is the most active dynamics will be well ahead of the cold air for our area. Central TN, MS, LA,  NW Bama and Eastern KY not so much. That is where I expect the worst of the weather, but as always, time will tell.


----------



## malak05 (Feb 27, 2017)

Well FFC got a nice lil write up to keep everyone's attention

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
510 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
510 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of central
Georgia this afternoon.

.Weather hazards expected...
Occasional lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Numerous to occasional thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night across the area. Some storms may be severe with
damaging winds.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible over northwest Georgia.

Otherwise...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
on Tuesday for north and portions of central Georgia. Occasional
lightning will be the main hazard on Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time Thursday through
sunday.


----------



## malak05 (Feb 27, 2017)

As with any severe event can't let you guard down as 24 hours dynamics can swing either way


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2017)

Maybe it's just me, but seems the parameters for severe outbreaks have adjusted over the last couple of years. All of the data I used to use to identify set in stone severe outbreaks don't seem to matter to most forecasters anymore, blurring the line between thunderstorms and "severe" weather. 

For example, under the old "severe" gradient lines were a tried and true tell tale sign of extreme down drafts and potential rotation. The gradient lines would be stacked extremely tight indicating a strong cold air front with high velocities forcing extreme lift at the leading edge where collision with an opposing flow of warm moist gulf air activity existed. 

What we are facing the next couple of days is not that scenario. There have always existed the potential for explosive lift where cold air aloft does not discourage rapid building of strong thunderstorms. It actually in fact encourages it given that warmer air rises faster and the interaction with forcing advection creates turbulence. Typically these cells are not long lived since the colder air aloft cannot support the cell for any period of time. This in turn creates constant cycling of cells with the occasional rapid collapse (downburst) of a cell. 

Maybe it's just me, but sometimes I feel today's WX media distribution is more focused on dumbing down information and hyping up potential more for ratings than for accuracy. 

Of course, I've known to be wrong, but that is just my observation.

FWIW, what I see as the most active areas for TS development over the next day or so will be the MidWest. There is good daytime heating approaching that will aid in some strong boomers for the SE, but the most volatile weather will be in the ARK, Mizzou, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky area. But even then the gradient anomaly is not near what it is in a super outbreak. Even the velocity differential between different levels isn't that impressive. 

I've eaten crow before, I'll gladly do it again.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

I don't mind a good thunderstorm. The spinny things can stay far, far away.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, I stated that in my last sentence in that post.



yeah, but I just wanted to get my "menopausal troposphere"  phrase in there somewhere!


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

Nice line of boomers moving through dalton right now.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 28, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Nice line of boomers moving through dalton right now.



Yep he rain on the windows at work about put me to sleep haha! Any updates from the pros here about tomorrow?


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Yep he rain on the windows at work about put me to sleep haha! Any updates from the pros here about tomorrow?



Not yet. I'm driving the Z71 tomorrow with some extra tow straps in it. Every time there are bad winds, there is a tree down somewhere on my way in.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Yep he rain on the windows at work about put me to sleep haha! Any updates from the pros here about tomorrow?



There are pro's here?


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There are pro's here?



Stop being modest everyone here knows is DDD for winter and you for severe!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Stop being modest everyone here knows is DDD for winter and you for severe!



Professionals get paid. 

Still waiting on key indicators that fit my tried and true formulas for what I consider disturbingly severe. Thus far all I'm seeing is a lower volatility for NW GA than areas to the west and north of their. Daytime heating will play a large factor in what develops but the main energy of this system is still going to effect the Midwest region (a geographic term I've never understood) more than us down here in Ga.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Feb 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> the Midwest region (a geographic term I've never understood)



Me either.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Feb 28, 2017)

Just had a cool lighting experience.  It's been my experience, that the only cool lightning experiences are experienced while safely indoors.  When you experience lightning up close and personal with no place to hide, it's not such a cool experience anymore.

Anyway, I saw a flash through the window followed immediately by an earth shaking boom of thunder.  I looked out the window and saw a rapidly rising mushroom cloud of thick, black smoke.  Of course, I waited until it was almost dissipated before I thought to snap a picture, but it was pretty cool.  There was a thickly defined smoke ring that kept curling upwards and upwards.  I didn't see the strike, but there's a cell tower just out of frame in this pic that I think might have been the culprit.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

Most of the schools up here have cancelled classes for tomorrow.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Feb 28, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Most of the schools up here have cancelled classes for tomorrow.



I cannot believe they cancelled on a forecast.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

They must think it's going to get bad.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I cannot believe they cancelled on a forecast.





smokey30725 said:


> They must think it's going to get bad.



Happens over in Bama occasionally, here not so much. I'm miffed as to their reasoning. The SPC has not changed at all for two days concerning the area of enhanced potential.


----------



## Greene728 (Feb 28, 2017)

I think your spot on Miggy regarding hype for ratings. Especially with Trump bashing the media! lol
 Gotta do something to get ratings up to pay the bills.... Sorta like naming winter storms and the 10's of millions "to be affected".


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

Walker county just announced they are closing so both my kids are off. Is it really going to be that bad?


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 28, 2017)

I think they are doing it bec of the timeframe in which it's supposed to come thru. I guess after the outbreak and the naders we had a few years ago they aren't taking chances. Don't want the kids on the buses I suppose.


----------



## smokey30725 (Feb 28, 2017)

True. UTC just closed as well.


----------



## lbzdually (Feb 28, 2017)

I saw somewhere where we may get straight line gusts of wind over 50 mph.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 28, 2017)

lbzdually said:


> I saw somewhere where we may get straight line gusts of wind over 50 mph.



With all the rain today there will be trees down everywhere if that actually happens.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Feb 28, 2017)

On that note if any of the fellow nw ga peeps on here run into any damage or problems pm me I have a truck and chainsaw and will help where needed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Feb 28, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> I think they are doing it bec of the timeframe in which it's supposed to come thru. I guess after the outbreak and the naders we had a few years ago they aren't taking chances. Don't want the kids on the buses I suppose.


That is a huge part of it. But with Jefferson County AL they just call me and if I say it's gonna be risky then they adjust their schedule and close early in order to get the bus routes done before the bad weather hits.

Really, they do!!! My Bro-n-Law is in charge of helping make that decision and I get input. There are no redo's in those decisions.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

Gahhhhhh.

The TV met heads are gambling on the GFS with the timing and the NAM is telling a different story on timing. There's about a two hour delay from GFS to NAM on timing of this event. I'm getting so sick and tired of this lack of congruency when we're inside of 12 hours of an event. It didn't used to be that way. 

OK, best I can tell around 6 or 7pm or 3 to 4pm for extreme NW Ga is the time that wx should be getting the craziest. Take your pick. But like I prog'd earlier, the bulk of the energy will be north of Ga. 

Dark thiry severe weather, yippeeeee!!!

The SPC has reduced the area effected in NW Ga and the crossover bulk shear is still way behind the bulk of convective weather. If my hair was long enough I'd be pulling it out over the maps on this one.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

Here is the only glimpse of sane wx information to shed light on where the most severe potential for us is today. (not the most severe overall, which is still the midwest) 

Where there's hail, there's good Lifting mechanisms. Where there's good Lifting mechanism's there is good Vertical Velocity. Where there's good VV there's the potential for differential currents / rotation / CAPE and at  the very least a microburst or two.

This is an html img link so it will update with time and this map will go blank.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

Oh yeah, and wind chills will be in the mid-20's by Saturday morning. Don't like Ga weather??? Well just wait a little bit, it will change.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Local guys keep saying 2:00 is when it's going to hit the Chattanooga area.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 1, 2017)

The NAM has the line of storms at 9am just barely entering NW TN up at Reelfoot Lake area.  The reality is the radar at 9am has the line of storms already well into middle TN 150 miles or more East of where NAM predicted.  

NAM has the line of storms arriving 5pm or so in the Chattanooga area.  Reality is more like 1pm according to current radar.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Whitfield and Gordon Counties just announced they are closing at lunch.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

What about this line on radar way out ahead of the main line? Will it suffocate a lot of the severe potential? On radar now the main edge that nw ga would likely see is way back near Memphis or Collierville now im seeing a smaller weaker line forming between Huntsville and Scottsboro!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Local guys keep saying 2:00 is when it's going to hit the Chattanooga area.



Yes, it is moving in quicker than they anticipated. This is good with out cloud cover and lower temps.

Still may be later though, with the LPS moving northward as it progresses the line will go from diagonal to near horizontal. 
Two problems with that. It puts it in here on the timing suspected and does give daytime heating a chance to work, especially if there are some breaks in the clouds.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes, it is moving in quicker than they anticipated. This is good with out cloud cover and lower temps.
> 
> Still may be later though, with the LPS moving northward as it progresses the line will go from diagonal to near horizontal.
> Two problems with that. It puts it in here on the timing suspected and does give daytime heating a chance to work, especially if there are some breaks in the clouds.



Where's the patented Miggy "blue sky and sunny" prediction when we need it?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Where's the patented Miggy "blue sky and sunny" prediction when we need it?



That's my winter mode of forecasting. 

You won't like my spring mode if the trend continues.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

So, I thought I'd divide the map up the way I thought it oughta be divided up. There just ain't no way you can call illinois the "mid west".


----------



## keithsto (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> So, I thought I'd divide the map up the way I thought it oughta be divided up. There just ain't no way you can call illinois the "mid west".



Term "mid-west" came from the time when everything west of the Mississippi was frontier land and was referred  to as the "west".  The land in the center (middle) was termed the mid-west.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Term "mid-west" came from the time when everything west of the Mississippi was frontier land and was referred  to as the "west".  The land in the center (middle) was termed the mid-west.



Well, we've grown beyond that now.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, we've grown beyond that now.



Agreed, but we also should have grown beyond the imperial measurement system by now as well and joined the rest of the world.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Agreed, but we also should have grown beyond the imperial measurement system by now as well and joined the rest of the world.



Naaa, a system that makes a wrench size that nobody can find is useless.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's my winter mode of forecasting.
> 
> You won't like my spring mode if the trend continues.



Rain rain and more rain?


----------



## Nitram4891 (Mar 1, 2017)

my neighbor had a crew in his backyard this morning taking down all his trees, impressive timing.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

I think I'll leave work a little early so I can be home when it hits.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

NOAA SPC just upgraded the enhanced area. All of the necessary ingredients are looking favorable now. Hail, strong winds and the potential for a tornado should be expected. 

Ya'll know the routine.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

Timeline still the same? The area that will affect us up here looks to be on the Bama/miss border with Tennessee!


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

I got into poison something this weekend cleaning the yard and have an appointment at 4 for a shot and have to make it bec this junk is allllll over my legs and arms haha!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

Timing is fluid with this system dynamics changing. I just sent the word to my contact in Jefferson Cty AL to consult closing at noon cst with NWS BMX.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

I'll have my eye on it all evening. I love 15 min from my house and can leave when it hits the ga line if I need too if it's bad!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

I work an hour away from my house, so I am keeping a close watch on the timing.


----------



## mguthrie (Mar 1, 2017)

My truck thermometer says 80 degrees and it's sunny in Between Ga. a stiff breeze blowing to. This just feels eery


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 1, 2017)

The wind has REALLY kicked up around here!
Blew a few of my chairs over down by the pool.  One was almost IN the pool.  I've turned them all upside down now and laid them down flat so hopefully they won't end up in the pool.

.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> NOAA SPC just upgraded the enhanced area. All of the necessary ingredients are looking favorable now. Hail, strong winds and the potential for a tornado should be expected.
> 
> Ya'll know the routine.



Ignore it and hope for the best.


----------



## mguthrie (Mar 1, 2017)

Nader watch issued for north ga. Looks like some super cells forming along the tail of this thing


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 1, 2017)

Everyone keep your weather radio's on this afternoon and evening. Miguel would proably agree. We do not want what happened in Illinois yesterday.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 1, 2017)

Local talk radio in Chattanooga kept giving ominous warnings.  Advised people to close business and go home.  Were steadfast on their timing prediction that it would hit the Noog at 1245pm. If they said it once, they said it 100 times. 

Now it's after one and the line of storms is an hour away at least.  

Minor issue, yes, but I get frustrated when people without knowlege start espousing things as gospel and misinforming the public.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Mar 1, 2017)

Tornado warning in north AL


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

That cell in Huntsville is looking like a beast! Already reported 1.75" hail out of it!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

I'm out the door at 3:00. Going to try and get to the house before the worst of it hits.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'm out the door at 3:00. Going to try and get to the house before the worst of it hits.



I believe that's my plan too! Be safe!


----------



## elfiii (Mar 1, 2017)

The Messlin needs to be updatin' up in hera.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

elfiii said:


> The Messlin needs to be updatin' up in hera.



Yeah for real lol. Its about to be in nw ga hows the smart ppl info on the system looking? Dangerous?


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 1, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Yeah for real lol. Its about to be in nw ga hows the smart ppl info on the system looking? Dangerous?



Not looking dangerous.  Doesn't look like anything different on radar than a typical thunderstorm we get all the time.  

It's an hour after when my kids get out of school and we still haven't had a drop.  Sure am glad they closed the schools today.


----------



## Nitram4891 (Mar 1, 2017)

Hey messican, used to be on wunderground you could see the storm tracks and it would identify the cells as well as provide parameters for each cell.  Any website does that for free anymore?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Some heavy rain briefly on my way home and some wind. Looks like it's almost done according to the radar up here. Guess it all fell apart?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

It's starting to clear up near Chattanooga


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Guess that's all she wrote!


----------



## Da Possum (Mar 1, 2017)

cloudy here.  hope this helps


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

Kind of bumpy up that way.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

Had some power flicker and not that much wind. Tons of rain though! Glad we skipped a main cell


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Had some power flicker and not that much wind. Tons of rain though! Glad we skipped a main cell



Over in Rising Fawn the have trees and power lines down from straight line winds.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

It's weird. Rising Fawn is just over the mountain from me. Other than a little rain, you'd never know a system came through here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It's weird. Rising Fawn is just over the mountain from me. Other than a little rain, you'd never know a system came through here.



It's that draw you live up in. Protects you from the nasty stuff.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's that draw you live up in. Protects you from the nasty stuff.



Works for me. Y'all can have fun with the severe stuff. I either want a little snow or some rain.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 1, 2017)

Getting windy bere in Waleska. I can hear thunder sounds heavy!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

YankeeRedneck said:


> Getting windy bere in Waleska. I can hear thunder sounds heavy!



The big one is going just above you through Talking Rock, leaving a bunch of 1.5 to 1.75 inch hail  in it's path. You'll get some smaller rain makers in a few minutes.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 1, 2017)

I'll post a pic of the local Murray high school baseball field down the road from my house tomorrow. Looks like some straight line winds came thru knocked the bleachers down tore roof off the pressbox took out the whole outfield wall and numerous trees behind the outfield snapped in half. Crazy. Just a quarter mile from my house and no damage where I live.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 1, 2017)

Pretty Strong storms from mainline about to start rolling in Polk/Haralson county areas and continue East looks just by Doppler to hold some strong hail chances


----------



## malak05 (Mar 1, 2017)

The one system just west of Jacksonville now looks to be gaining strength and one of the more impressive storms so far today


----------



## parisinthe20s (Mar 1, 2017)

Crazy amount of lightning and thunder, loud enough to send my dogs cowering to their bed. I don't mind thunder but the lightning can stay far far away. I sure hope no one gets hurt.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

So, what's next?


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 1, 2017)

Sure has slowed down from earlier. Anyone that it is heading over needs to stay tight.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 1, 2017)

This reminds me of a system that came through in the 80's. The northern part of the state got the storms but the central portion got like 6" of snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 1, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> So, what's next?



TV, a drink and then bed?


----------



## ChrisLakeCountry (Mar 1, 2017)

This looks bad! Is that red a hail storm? Smokey what are you seeing? That looks pretty close to you.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 1, 2017)

Getting a little bumpy in Good Hope.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Nothing going on right now. Not sure what that radar was showing.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 1, 2017)

Wind is howling here now.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 2, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The big one is going just above you through Talking Rock, leaving a bunch of 1.5 to 1.75 inch hail  in it's path. You'll get some smaller rain makers in a few minutes.



Yep that's all we got. That hail was serious glad it missed us!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2017)

Got a little bumpy in the 30132 but nothing too bad!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Term "mid-west" came from the time when everything west of the Mississippi was frontier land and was referred  to as the "west".  The land in the center (middle) was termed the mid-west.



Back to this topic and your point. Even today's meteorologist refer to Illinois as the Midwest. It is not, by the mere history of the term. It is east of the Mississippi river. 

My map is still a better system.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 2, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Back to this topic and your point. Even today's meteorologist refer to Illinois as the Midwest. It is not, by the mere history of the term. It is east of the Mississippi river.
> 
> My map is still a better system.



Oh, I agree your map makes perfect sense. 

Hrmm...I wonder how many of the folks that can't pick out their county on a map also can't identify the states on an unlabeled map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 2, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Oh, I agree your map makes perfect sense.
> 
> Hrmm...I wonder how many of the folks that can't pick out their county on a map also can't identify the states on an unlabeled map.



Most of em. 

They can all tell you where the nearest liquor store is though. Perhaps we should start issuing wx warnings based on the name of liquor stores.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 2, 2017)

Here is the mentioned ball field pics. The rest of Rec Dept has no damage.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 2, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Here is the mentioned ball field pics. The rest of Rec Dept has no damage.



Looks like a microburst to me. No indication of rotation even with something as light as the netting. 

I hope everyone's okay.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 2, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> Here is the mentioned ball field pics. The rest of Rec Dept has no damage.


man that is horrible I sure hate to see that!! Looks like there's going to be a lot of volunteer work needed from the parents and the players to get that park back up and going. Maybe the county will step in and help also.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 2, 2017)

What sucks is they just now put that new taller outfield fence up and 3/4 of it is out of the ground.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 2, 2017)

Low end ef1 tornado confirmed for the damage that went thru the baseball field. 3 miles travel length 150 yards wide 90 mph winds. Just a quarter mile from the house! I can't even imagine what a 4-5 scale would do!


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 2, 2017)

That's the result of a microburst Mig warned about earlier. I drove under the F5 in Huntsville Al. You don't even want to know what it is like. Unfortunately this is Mother Natures cooling system so we just need to be prepared.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 3, 2017)

More than a microburst. I drove around yesterday after this report came out and saw all these places. Crazy what a low end will do!


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 3, 2017)

Hmm, learn something new everyday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2017)

Had a low of 30°f this mornin with frost on the ground. Tomorrow morning should be a good killin frost with the even lower temps we'll have.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 3, 2017)

Looks like we are going to have a quiet weather week next week.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like we are going to have a quiet weather week next week.



If you say so!!!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 3, 2017)

23* here this morning with snow flurries and a brisk north wind....


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you say so!!!



I welcome some rain!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 4, 2017)

Nice balmy 20* here this morning.


----------



## fountain (Mar 4, 2017)

Order rain..lots of it and weekly!!!  Fixing to dry out


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 5, 2017)

23*.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 6, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> 23*.



Looks like your chance for snow won't be over until April.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

A few of us are gonna get wet much much sooner than 1pm, like the local Mets are saying. Souping up good well ahead of the front causing rain to pop up much earlier than forecast.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 7, 2017)

I predict it will snow in Jawga in 2 weeks. Bank on it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> I predict it will snow in Jawga in 2 weeks. Bank on it.



I like the talking of magic. That means we'll have another warm spell and spring will get started sooner, moving us closer to summer earlier.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 7, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I like the talking of magic. That means we'll have another warm spell and spring will get started sooner, moving us closer to summer earlier.



Nawt, I have been eating a lot and my wiff's cat is acting all stupid N stuff.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Nawt, I have been eating a lot and my wiff's cat is acting all stupid N stuff.



Dang ... At first glance i thought you said you been eating your wifes cat!!!


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Nawt, I have been eating a lot and my wiff's cat is acting all stupid N stuff.



That's a smart cat if it can walk across a keyboard and type that.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 7, 2017)

Yall ruined the weather thread...


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A few of us are gonna get wet much much sooner than 1pm, like the local Mets are saying. Souping up good well ahead of the front causing rain to pop up much earlier than forecast.




I sure hope so and I hope it's over quick.  My sinuses are dying over the air pressure change!



.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 7, 2017)

How long till winter 2017 / 2018 starts?


----------



## blondiega1 (Mar 7, 2017)

11:47am Rain has started here in Dallas


----------



## malak05 (Mar 7, 2017)

Well it's been dead here for good reason this winter HAS Failed to really execute any type of regular threat periods, But with that said we've had a little improvement in PV and some progress for a storm to come down to the SE this Sunday and bring snow to some areas. I posted 4 GFS models run examples from 18z yesterday till 12z today for this upcoming Sunday at 00z. We have a significant southern trend with the Low and the cold from a PV, this is currently setting up a nothern TN/NC nice snow hit...but hey it's about wishcasting now with hardly anytime left for everyone to keep pushing for that low keep digging and the cold to follow suit cause we ain't got much else to lose perhaps a long shot for parts of AL/GA but at least it's something you can hope for...and another note the recent CMC and Euro runs have had similar results as GFS so is some agreement there about it being a lil more south then a few days ago... The 5th image is 6 hours later it shows snow hits in NC starting up but I added it mostly as a good idea to the Low position in south-central Alabama for parts outside of N.TN and NC to get it where it would help us we need that down around mobile or just off coast it has atleast moved that direction for now


----------



## malak05 (Mar 7, 2017)

This will at least keep me entertained for next couple of days but gonna take a good bit of wishcasting magic and trend continuation to get AL/GA in the game for this system


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 7, 2017)

Nah, winter's over.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 7, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Nah, winter's over.



Probably right but will still hope for best by Friday we are talking about potential snow in GA?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 7, 2017)

malak05 said:


> This will at least keep me entertained for next couple of days but gonna take a good bit of wishcasting magic and trend continuation to get AL/GA in the game for this system



Must........not..........get.............hopes...........up..........


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Dang ... At first glance i thought you said you been eating your wifes cat!!!



He's partial to Korean cooking.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He's partial to Korean cooking.





BOG said:


> Dang ... At first glance i thought you said you been eating your wifes cat!!!



Just put Catsoup on it!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

Patriot44 said:


> Just put Catsoup on it!



Monon!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Looks like your chance for snow won't be over until April.



Oh NCHillbilly!!! Remember this post? It's still therrrrrre.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 7, 2017)

It usually snows until up in April. Seen it in May a couple times. I do not want it, but not much I can do about it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

Good lightning in this line of storms to our WSW. Folks in SOWEGA might see some of this later on this evening, into the morning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 7, 2017)

For real time lightning maps check out this link.
https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang...=;n=0;y=32.5673;x=-86.0212;z=7;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;


----------



## ryork (Mar 7, 2017)

Just absolutely poured for about 6.5 minutes here in the 30110.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 7, 2017)

Cow and the flat rock affect in the 30132


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 8, 2017)

My local:



> Saturday Night 100 % Precip. / 3-5 in
> 
> Cloudy with snow. Low 23F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.



 

I think that's a bit overdone, myself, but we'll see.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

These dang models our trolling I'm sure of it but continue to get closer and closer to something interesting at least for the north portions of GA


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 8, 2017)

malak05 said:


> These dang models our trolling I'm sure of it but continue to get closer and closer to something interesting at least for the north portions of GA



As in the extreme northern counties and only at higher elevations or in the traditional CAD zones?


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

This is the past 3 CMC (Canada) runs which Euro and CMC are very similar and GFS is tweaking a lil bit more to similar look as well, I'll post last 3 model snowfalls for those as well to compare if your having fun it's good to watch but still 5 days alot can change. Per models this would be snow not combo of all 3 types falling


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

The last 3 GFS runs borderline on the GA border now and following similar suit as Euro/CMC runs... The CMC right now cuts a  near straight line thru GA from Mid-Floyd County to Hart County in North Georgia bringing anywhere to from half inch to up to 3-4 further north you go, it's winters last gasp I suppose we see how it plays out still need it to drive about 35 miles south to get snow to my doorsteps in Dalla, GA that maybe hoping too much


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 8, 2017)

It would be nice for it to move south, so we can get one last snow.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

GFS Ensembles Snow depth is a nice tick south as well over past 3 runs as expected


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> It would be nice for it to move south, so we can get one last snow.



Still 5 days out it's been on a good roll south over past 36 hours if it continues you might get lucky but then fear the Northern trend to come back break your heart


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

Euro follows suit and snow reaching down into portions of Extreme GA


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 8, 2017)

My house is right in the purple area. Come on, baby!


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 8, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> My house is right in the purple area. Come on, baby!



And as you know that means nothing will happen.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> And as you know that means nothing will happen.



baseless hope is all I have right now..........


----------



## DDD (Mar 8, 2017)

Guys, I caution you looking at clown maps at this point.  

2mm temps, the placement of the HPS, the fact that models keep bouncing all over the place.  Yes, they have come south, but we are still 4 days out.  

I will tell you I am not impressed.  The set up is wonky and I would not get my hopes up.

Now... next weeks temps... whoa baby... every blooming object in Georgia will die if those temps or even temps close to that verify.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> Guys, I caution you looking at clown maps at this point.
> 
> 2mm temps, the placement of the HPS, the fact that models keep bouncing all over the place.  Yes, they have come south, but we are still 4 days out.
> 
> ...



I was hoping you'd weigh in.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 8, 2017)

If you expect to be disappointed then you won't be when it all goes to heck, especially after this winter if this thing does bring some snow to some well you can consider yourself blessed if not as most likely then it's the norm


----------



## DDD (Mar 8, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I was hoping you'd weigh in.



It is an interesting set up and I always, always, always say follow the trend.  Well... the trend is coming to GA.  All models, GFS, EURO and CMC have snow in the N GA mountains on Sunday night.

It's just hard to believe at this point.  If the trend keeps coming and the confidence grows... well...  I will be sucked in like a cow looking at a new gate.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 8, 2017)

DDD said:


> It is an interesting set up and I always, always, always say follow the trend.  Well... the trend is coming to GA.  All models, GFS, EURO and CMC have snow in the N GA mountains on Sunday night.
> 
> It's just hard to believe at this point.  If the trend keeps coming and the confidence grows... well...  I will be sucked in like a cow looking at a new gate.



That's what I was thinking looking at the posts malak was making, but that's like me looking at Hawking's equations. I know enough of what I'm seeing to recognize the broadest of strokes, but the devil and the reality is in the details. 

Even if it does hit here my head canon is telling me it will be extremely short lived. We've been too mild too close to the storm for it to stick around and be anything other than a nuisance.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 8, 2017)

It would be funny to me if our local fishing league February tournament had highs in the 60s and next weeks march one might have us wearing cold weather suits haha gotta love it!


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 8, 2017)

I'm headed to Boone NC Mondy..

Tolt yall it wa going to snow!


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 8, 2017)

Sunny an 75 forecasted for all next week.. In the 30132


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 9, 2017)

Chattanooga mets already downplaying everything. Unfortunately, I'm going to assume they are right this time.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 9, 2017)

Still hollering 3"-6" here Saturday night. I'm headed to SC where it's springtime.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 9, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Still hollering 3"-6" here Saturday night. I'm headed to SC where it's springtime.



Now if you'd just move there so you won't be as miserable for so many months of the year...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 9, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Now if you'd just move there so you won't be as miserable for so many months of the year...



Or y'all could move to Minnesota since nobody likes southern weather on here.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 9, 2017)

Well the 12z NAM run just showed N.AL and N. GA some love... lil bit slower progression of storm and allows lil bit of colder air to reach northern portions of AL/GA still borderline temps and work to go want it to slow down some more and the polar air to filter in


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 9, 2017)

If the 12z holds true north ga line and Chattanooga will get heavy snow.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 9, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> If the 12z holds true north ga line and Chattanooga will get heavy snow.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 9, 2017)

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_03/namp_3hr_snow_a_nc_29.png.e755f61d46b5bb1166f587c50b35d26f.png

As DDD and Miguel advise. This is a clown map not a fact that this will happen. Still two to three days out. Still think we would need it to get a lot colder to get any snow.   Would be nice to see some snow again this weekend.

DDD or Malak are the other models showing for possible trend for snow in north ga as the 12z is showing?


----------



## malak05 (Mar 9, 2017)

Yeah that one you got is definitely is a clown map look for I provided a snow depth map which may be a little more accurate if you took the NAM verbatim. It's the first time the NAM to show snow that south but others have hovered or sneaked below that TN/GA border for past 24 hours too... GFS just ran and had perhaps a slight improvement on the southern fringes of N. Georgia compared to past runs


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 9, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Or y'all could move to Minnesota since nobody likes southern weather on here.



I don't want snow or ice all the time, but once a year would be good. 

I do like the Brainerd/Baxter area.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 9, 2017)

Poor ole DDD.  He doesn't want to believe.  He doesn't want to get sucked in only have to have Lucy pull the football away yet again.  

But I bet he's getting that twitch.  Little tremor in that index finger wanting to push mouse over to refresh his various open tabs to weather sites. 

He's experiencing great internal turmoil right now.  You know he's all tore up on the inside.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 9, 2017)

Well sure basically at its current look it's still to be a glancing blow for GA mostly up in the mountains from West to East but in this winter anything to track and perhaps have drop a lil snow on some friends is fun just not the big storms we want to see and follow which has chance to bring snow to the deep south.

All though the CMC just came out with another different solution for Sunday/Monday were the low pressure hangs in the Gulf and then bombs out near Carolina coast and it's a paste job for them... and the only fun thing to say about it is that if that was to be what happened and the tilted sooner that bomb would be more westward but again that one model run getting it almost right except for the part about the northern stream being stronger and bringing that over GA would be like curving a laser down a trash can receptacle on a "planet blowing up machine" or something like that

by way... the little CMC think is definitely wishcasting


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 9, 2017)

At what point can I declare a region-wide panic, triggering a run on bread, eggs, and milk?


----------



## malak05 (Mar 9, 2017)

When your standing on a foot of snow would be about the only safe time to do so over past few winters around here


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 9, 2017)

Can't believe that Miggy hasn't been along to burst all our bubbles.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 9, 2017)

Whad i miss


----------



## DDD (Mar 9, 2017)

Guys, going to be way to warm at the surface.

In extreme NW GA or the mountains you might see some snow showers under a heavier band, but its just too warm here.  

TN, NC and upper SC will possibly be just cold enough to get all snow and ***maybe*** get some accumulating snow.  Maybe.

The only people I fee like are a lock for snow is the mountains of NC and up state NC near VA.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 9, 2017)

I'm in extreme NW Georgia, and I predict that the dreaded Chattanooga snow dome will be activated, giving us little more than cold rain.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 9, 2017)

DDD said:


> Guys, going to be way to warm at the surface.
> 
> In extreme NW GA or the mountains you might see some snow showers under a heavier band, but its just too warm here.
> 
> ...



Not going to let Lucy pull that football on you this time, are you.


----------



## DDD (Mar 9, 2017)

I am more interested in Tuesday.  To me it has better potential for GA than Sunday.  It will be light, but it will be cold enough.


----------



## DDD (Mar 9, 2017)

Tuesday.


----------



## DDD (Mar 9, 2017)

Everything will die next week.  Tuesday - Thursday.  Unreal cold coming back to roost.

NC Hillbilly really gonna freeze.  GFS looking below 0° up there.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 9, 2017)

Great!















Not!!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 9, 2017)

6 more months of winter!!!!!


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 10, 2017)

I am not liking the look of the storm about to pass Chattanooga headed for Nga.  Big bow in it with a hole in the radar right behind it.  I've seen a few tornadoes drop out of the air with this same set-up so be alive.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 10, 2017)

Yes sir! Severe thunder storm watch is up for the north central and northwest Georgia!!


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 10, 2017)

Till 5:00a.m.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 10, 2017)

Wow the lighting is incredible here at Hartsfield!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 10, 2017)

Yeah had a good light show in Cartersville for a little while.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 10, 2017)

Wife said it blew so hard it was shaking the house. I have no idea, as I slept right through it.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 10, 2017)

Next week is brrr cold and that disturbance DDD mentioned has looked closer and closer to reaching GA from the North on each run. The Sunday situation is just lil bonkers once again model mania...

4k NAM got this still on a better south track and some of others have had less moisture thru TN/NC as originally shown who really knows, I do agree Temps are problematic could be another situation like January where temps were just a lil bit off on surface & 850s to make magic probably.

only if this was Jan. and we had a nice Polar air sitting over us


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 10, 2017)

N. Ga. Wx posted this on Facebook today.







As you can see, DDD and I are under the DDD Dome of Doom for no chance of even a flurry.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 10, 2017)

This one's for the NW Ga boys n girls. From Alabama Wx on Twitter.


----------



## doenightmare (Mar 10, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This one's for the NW Ga boys n girls. From Alabama Wx on Twitter.



Smokey gonna have kittens.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 10, 2017)

I'll believe it when I see it. (Trying desperately to contain giddiness..........)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 10, 2017)

Here's the NAM for Sunday.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 10, 2017)

If that verifies, I'm getting 3 inches of snow.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 10, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> If that verifies, I'm getting 3 inches of snow.



GFS was not as generous and Euro was like middle ground between NAM/GFS for nothern counties of GA. I mean hey one of them's got to be right don't you think???

Honestly anyone south of Floyd county probably shouldn't expect much as in sticking IMO but areas up to kennesaw north might get to see some brief periods of light snow showers mixed with sleet and rain sunday perhaps


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 10, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Next week is brrr cold and that disturbance DDD mentioned has looked closer and closer to reaching GA from the North on each run. The Sunday situation is just lil bonkers once again model mania...
> 
> 4k NAM got this still on a better south track and some of others have had less moisture thru TN/NC as originally shown who really knows, I do agree Temps are problematic could be another situation like January where temps were just a lil bit off on surface & 850s to make magic probably.
> 
> only if this was Jan. and we had a nice Polar air sitting over us



Looks like something firing up down in the GOM?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 10, 2017)

There's a good reason every farmer knows that you don't plant until after Good Friday.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There's a good reason every farmer knows that you don't plant until after Good Friday.



I triet to tell em was going to snow.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 11, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There's a good reason every farmer knows that you don't plant until after Good Friday.



Mother's Day here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 11, 2017)

A more believable map.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 11, 2017)

current radar


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 11, 2017)

Was sleeting in Lookout Valley just outside Chattanooga a few minutes ago. I'm up on lookout mountain right now and it sure looks like snow is coming.


----------



## Matthew6 (Mar 11, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Was sleeting in Lookout Valley just outside Chattanooga a few minutes ago. I'm up on lookout mountain right now and it sure looks like snow is coming.


----------



## mark-7mag (Mar 11, 2017)

It's been snowing here in Pigeon Forge for the last 2 hours. Luckily it's not sticking. We're with a youth group from church in a cabin on the side of a mountain. We DO NOT want to get snowed in tonight.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 11, 2017)

Bring on the Blizzard.... Thunder snow..... Ice ice baby


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 11, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Bring on the Blizzard.... Thunder snow..... Ice ice baby



It's going to snizzard Blood! You heard that! 

I'll brang the beer, pull up an extra seat on da roof fer me!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 11, 2017)

I came across Hogpen Gap on hwy 348 a couple hours ago and it was 38 and snowing.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 11, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I came across Hogpen Gap on hwy 348 a couple hours ago and it was 38 and snowing.



Nice..


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 11, 2017)

Sleeting a bit here now. Just finished mowing the lawn and it felt wonderful outside.


----------



## greg_n_clayton (Mar 11, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I came across Hogpen Gap on hwy 348 a couple hours ago and it was 38 and snowing.



It was spitting snow around lunch today up Tate City too.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 11, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Sleeting a bit here now. Just finished mowing the lawn and it felt wonderful outside.



Now that's a sig line if I ever saw one


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 11, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> Now that's a sig line if I ever saw one



It's the most accurate representation of north Georgia weather that I could think of. Already got a thin layer of snow sticking to the grass.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 11, 2017)

37 degrees and YUGE wet flakes falling fast.  Sticking on the deck but not the ground.


----------



## DDD (Mar 11, 2017)

The wrap around moisture on Tuesday has fallen off the face of the planet due to the strength and placement of the LPS off the East Coast.

However, I see on multiple models low 20's across a lot of N. GA. Thursday.  Gonna be a cold one from Tuesday - Friday here in GA.


----------



## EAGLE EYE 444 (Mar 11, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> 37 degrees and YUGE wet flakes falling fast.  Sticking on the deck but not the ground.



Yep a little while ago, just west of you in Fannin County, I was talking with my sister-in-law and she said there were lots of really big snowflakes falling.    This is located about 2 miles north of Hwy 76/Hwy 515 and the Sparks Road intersection.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Mar 11, 2017)

If it was just a bit colder all this rain could be snow. Of all the rotten luck..at least Georgia weather is always interesting. But I really want my 40° highs back


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 11, 2017)

Radar shows snow right on top of us, but nothing coming down right now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 12, 2017)

Good glaze of snow on the grass now and coming down heavy.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Good glaze of snow on the grass now and coming down heavy.



Sweet!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 12, 2017)

Woke up to 30 degrees and probably and inch and half of heavy, wet snow.  Every limb on every tree is covered, but my driveway is still mostly clear.  Wet and slushy on the pavement.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 12, 2017)

I'm in McCormick, SC, and it's absolutely pouring snow. Big wet flakes starting to stick to the grass. Talked to my wife, and she said we have about 4"-5" at home.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 12, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> I'm in McCormick, SC, and it's absolutely pouring snow. Big wet flakes starting to stick to the grass. Talked to my wife, and she said we have about 4"-5" at home.



About to head out and head up to Boone about noon.  Sounds like I might see some snow on the way.


----------



## BlackEagle (Mar 12, 2017)

Oglethorpe county getting some big wet snow


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 12, 2017)

All gone here.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 12, 2017)

Guess that was winter's big goodbye to us, lol. What a joke


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 12, 2017)

It is sunny and fiddy in hickory right now. looks like they scaled the weather back a bit for tomorrow and Tuesday.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 12, 2017)

That was different


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 12, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Guess that was winter's big goodbye to us, lol. What a joke



You're never gonna be happy are you?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 12, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> You're never gonna be happy are you?



Mother Nature is such a tease.


----------



## Lukikus2 (Mar 12, 2017)

How about some sat pics?


----------



## nickel back (Mar 13, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> You're never gonna be happy are you?



Nope he won't......


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 13, 2017)

It would be nice if we were getting the snow from what we had 24 years ago today. Blizzard of 93.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 13, 2017)

What's gonna happen up here in the hills tonight?  I'm hoping it's gonna go north of us.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 13, 2017)

Regretting my decision to de-winterize my camper and putting it down in Athens for some family to use.  Going to get stupid cold this week.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 13, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> It would be nice if we were getting the snow from what we had 24 years ago today. Blizzard of 93.



Why would that be nice?  We had 5 foot drifts in Good Hope.  Wind peeled back the tin roof of my uncle's chicken house like a sardine can.


----------



## JonathanG2013 (Mar 13, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Why would that be nice?  We had 5 foot drifts in Good Hope.  Wind peeled back the tin roof of my uncle's chicken house like a sardine can.



With out the wind and damage would be nice to see all the snow.  I do not think that we will ever see that amount of snow again here.

Wonder if we will get flurries tomorrow?


----------



## parisinthe20s (Mar 13, 2017)

Froze my butt off walking my dogs this morning. It was wonderful. I wish it would stay like this


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 13, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> Froze my butt off walking my dogs this morning. It was wonderful. I wish it would stay like this



I think we are a rare breed here. Everyone else reminds me of my grandparents. The first time it gets below 60 degrees, they have the gas logs on full blast and are covered with layers of blankets.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 13, 2017)

Gonna be a nice week...enjoy it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 13, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Gonna be a nice week...enjoy it.



Yeah, if you like a cold rain and more cold temps.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 13, 2017)

JonathanG2013 said:


> It would be nice if we were getting the snow from what we had 24 years ago today. Blizzard of 93.



People either don't know or don't remember how bad that storm was.  200 people died.  Livestock died.  Lots of folks around here went 2 weeks without power in sub zero and single digit temps.  When snow is 30" deep, you ain't traveling unless you're on a snowmobile or a horse.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 13, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> People either don't know or don't remember how bad that storm was.  200 people died.  Livestock died.  Lots of folks around here went 2 weeks without power in sub zero and single digit temps.  When snow is 30" deep, you ain't traveling unless you're on a snowmobile or a horse.





I agree. Some of us nearly worked ourselves to death in some bad conditions during that event, trying to get power restored to everybody. Especially to critical customers. I wouldn`t wish that kind of weather on anybody.

Climbing ice covered poles was never fun.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 13, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, if you like a cold rain and more cold temps.



I'm with Paris, I definitely lean towards the cold...here in Jawja anyway.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 13, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> People either don't know or don't remember how bad that storm was.  200 people died.  Livestock died.  Lots of folks around here went 2 weeks without power in sub zero and single digit temps.  When snow is 30" deep, you ain't traveling unless you're on a snowmobile or a horse.



No doubt. It was awful here. I don't wish for big snowstorms, because people always die. That's like wishing for tornadoes. People who don't have to get out and deal with it and can sit beside the fire and roast marshmallows and drink cocoa don't understand how seriously dangerous a winter storm can be.

Snow the next two days and nights in the forecast here, and temps in the single digits Wednesday night with 20mph winds. They can take this winter back to wherever they got it as far as I'm concerned and bring Spring on.


----------



## crackerdave (Mar 13, 2017)

Every year around this time there's always one last blast of winter..count on it again next year,too.


----------



## doenightmare (Mar 13, 2017)

Guess I can say goodbye to any fruit on our trees this year.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 13, 2017)

Y'all dont even think about plucking a fresh tomato from the vine or salt and peppering a home grown cucumber right now. 
The smell of fresh cut grass!


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 14, 2017)

Got some sugar snow flying around in S Forsyth.


----------



## ryork (Mar 14, 2017)

Some sleet and tiny snow flakes here in the 30110 as well.


----------



## Nicodemus (Mar 14, 2017)

I think every mayhaw tree down here is in full bloom right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 14, 2017)

The high temp for today on my wx station was for about 10 seconds at 1pm. It hit 47°f.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 14, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The high temp for today on my wx station was for about 10 seconds at 1pm. It hit 47°f.



I think we hit 36 for a high and never saw the sun all day.  Thermometer says it's 30 right now, but it's the coldest 30 I think I've ever felt.  Wind is blowing and it's downright unpleasant outside.


----------



## parisinthe20s (Mar 14, 2017)

36 in Woodstock, saw maybe two snowflakes. It sure seems like it's going to snow, purplish clouds n all, but I don't think there is any forecasted. Too bad. This is drinking coffee on my porch kind of weather for me


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 14, 2017)

parisinthe20s said:


> 36 in Woodstock, saw maybe two snowflakes. It sure seems like it's going to snow, purplish clouds n all, but I don't think there is any forecasted. Too bad. This is drinking coffee on my porch kind of weather for me



Got a fresh pot I've just poured up. Too cold for anything else, cept maybe some whiskey.


----------



## turkeyhunter835 (Mar 14, 2017)

Snowing a tad bit in Helen this afternoon


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 14, 2017)

Snowed enough to cover the deck here in Flintstone today. Feels great outside.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2017)

Bottomed out at 28°f at 0800 sharp this morning on my wx station.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 15, 2017)

Brutal here this morning. When I left home it was pouring snow and 15* with a 25mph north wind.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 15, 2017)

Still sitting at a 32, breezy deg. here in N Forsyth.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Brutal here this morning. When I left home it was pouring snow and 15* with a 25mph north wind.



You can have that stuff.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 15, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Brutal here this morning. When I left home it was pouring snow and 15* with a 25mph north wind.



I truly don't understand how you deal with it.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 15, 2017)

Flurries were observed by a friend of mine in Suwanee sometime around 2AM this morning.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 15, 2017)

Somebody in the Ga. mountains has some good snow coverage...you can see it on the higher elevations from 400 at the Forsyth-Dawson line.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2017)

Severe Wx Met Shack update for the 24th. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10649948#post10649948


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 15, 2017)

Dang it, once again the severe threat looks like it's camped out on top of my house.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 15, 2017)

jbird1 said:


> Somebody in the Ga. mountains has some good snow coverage...you can see it on the higher elevations from 400 at the Forsyth-Dawson line.



Yesterday, there was a clearly defined snow line starting at about 2500' that covered everything.  Frozen trees, limbs, leaves, everything.  The sun melted a lot of that today even though we never got above freezing.  Now, the line is still there, but it's mostly snow on the ground.  

I know one thing, It's days like today that make me glad I work inside.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 15, 2017)

My temp and rainfall chart from my wx station beginning on the 9th. 42 was the high today


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 15, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Yesterday, there was a clearly defined snow line starting at about 2500' that covered everything.  Frozen trees, limbs, leaves, everything.  The sun melted a lot of that today even though we never got above freezing.  Now, the line is still there, but it's mostly snow on the ground.
> 
> I know one thing, It's days like today that make me glad I work inside.



The rime ice line looks about 4,000' here this evening. Tops of the mountains are all sparkly white.


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 15, 2017)

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Yesterday, there was a clearly defined snow line starting at about 2500' that covered everything.  Frozen trees, limbs, leaves, everything.  The sun melted a lot of that today even though we never got above freezing.  Now, the line is still there, but it's mostly snow on the ground.
> 
> I know one thing, It's days like today that make me glad I work inside.



Sweet!...now I know where that 2500' line is.  The snow appeared to be on the more Eastern mtns. vs. the Western, and my view was South and East facing slopes.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 16, 2017)

Any changes in that system that Miggy was looking at for next week?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 18, 2017)

Had a good rain here last night.


----------



## Matthew6 (Mar 18, 2017)

happy bday DDD


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 20, 2017)

Hey Miggy, end of the week still looking rocky around here?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 20, 2017)

Nice balmy 25* here for the first day of spring.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 20, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Hey Miggy, end of the week still looking rocky around here?



Came to ask this.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Hey Miggy, end of the week still looking rocky around here?





StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Came to ask this.



Right now the models are split. Euro takes it north and the GFS keeps it south. The NWS is hedging and putting their discussion somewhere in the middle. 

Give it a couple of days and a resolution will be closer.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Right now the models are split. Euro takes it north and the GFS keeps it south. The NWS is hedging and putting their discussion somewhere in the middle.
> 
> Give it a couple of days and a resolution will be closer.



Okay, what about tomorrow's lashing?


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 20, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Okay, what about tomorrow's lashing?



Doesn't look like much so far according to the SPC.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 20, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Doesn't look like much so far according to the SPC.



Thanks


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Okay, what about tomorrow's lashing?



I can pee more than we'll get the next couple of days.

Something on this link y'all may want to read and keep in the back of your mind for the next few weeks to come. 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tornado-risk-amping-up-this-week-and-beyond


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 20, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can pee more than we'll get the next couple of days.
> 
> Something on this link y'all may want to read and keep in the back of your mind for the next few weeks to come.
> 
> https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tornado-risk-amping-up-this-week-and-beyond



Ummm, okay. 

I'm trying to get out feeshing Saturday. I can handle rain, but not lightning. I hope it misses us.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 20, 2017)

SPC did update the outlook tomorrow and raised the level to slight risk for parts of North GA. The Cape and Lift index is pretty impressive but doesn't have much shear to work with our could really been strong but still might be bumpy for some


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2017)

malak05 said:


> SPC did update the outlook tomorrow and raised the level to slight risk for parts of North GA. The Cape and Lift index is pretty impressive but doesn't have much shear to work with our could really been strong but still might be bumpy for some



If it's clear and blue it may heat up enough.


----------



## fountain (Mar 20, 2017)

I heard on a local radio channel earlier that the meteorologist for that channel is saying that this spring will be a wetter one that last spring that was somewhat a drought.  That's backwards from all I've heard and seen so far.  Think they are right or lost their mind?  All I've been told and seen are indicating bad dry for this spring and summer.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2017)

fountain said:


> I heard on a local radio channel earlier that the meteorologist for that channel is saying that this spring will be a wetter one that last spring that was somewhat a drought.  That's backwards from all I've heard and seen so far.  Think they are right or lost their mind?  All I've been told and seen are indicating bad dry for this spring and summer.



I heard Glen Burns say that there is no severe weather in the forseeable future, even through April.

I think he's been hittin the sauce.


----------



## fountain (Mar 20, 2017)

Maybe not severe, but casual rain??  That's what I was hoping for anyway


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 20, 2017)

fountain said:


> Maybe not severe, but casual rain??  That's what I was hoping for anyway



Anything outside of 10 days is statistical bafoonery when it comes to long range projections. I'll leave that sort of foot in mouth antics to the pros.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 21, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I heard Glen Burns say that there is no severe weather in the forseeable future, even through April.
> 
> I think he's been hittin the sauce.


 Oh Glenn how could you say that??
We always have severe weather in April!! That is a BROAD statement.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 21, 2017)




----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 21, 2017)

They just upgraded us to erange lvl 3!


----------



## jbird1 (Mar 21, 2017)

Lots of daytime heating IMBY...


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

Yeah north GA bumped to moderate risk and slight extended a Lil I believe, this system mostly is being considered a hail & straight winds event but I wouldn't be shocked for a few spin ups, miggy education time can you give a general idea what tornado for this is a Lil lower, cape and lift index is ample is it just the missing higher wind shear?


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

This is 12z 3k NAM run pretty strong line moving thru Northern/NE GA tonight. That will bring some pretty healthy high winds and bad hail if NAM is accurate to those areas. Almost time to start watching radar though and see exactly what course that storm comings thru at and how far south it gets into GA.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 21, 2017)

Got a 8u kids tournament championship baseball game in Chattanooga from 630-7:45.   Have texted both coaches and the league director with the info given here and the NAM showing these storms hitting between 7 and 8.  

Trying to move first pitch up to 6 or just going ahead and moving to tomorrow as there's no chance we can play the second "if" game if needed.  

We'll see if they heed the GON Miggy warning.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> Got a 8u kids tournament championship baseball game in Chattanooga from 630-7:45.   Have texted both coaches and the league director with the info given here and the NAM showing these storms hitting between 7 and 8.
> 
> Trying to move first pitch up to 6 or just going ahead and moving to tomorrow as there's no chance we can play the second "if" game if needed.
> 
> We'll see if they heed the GON Miggy warning.



Yeah I believe those are gonna be hard to get in based on current model/radar returns good luck stay safe


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0302.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of middle into southern Tennessee...northern
   Alabama and Georgia...far western Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211853Z - 212130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve rapidly this
   afternoon across multiple regimes from TN across northern AL, GA,
   and the western Carolinas. Large hail and damaging winds will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a trough extending westward from
   NC into southern TN, and across northern AL and GA. Strong heating
   continues in this axis, where moisture and instability are also
   maximized. Pressure falls also persist at a rate of up to 2mb/hr.
   Visible satellite imagery shows substantial CU developing, and
   scattered cells are expected to form over the next few hours. In
   addition, an outflow surge is currently exiting southeastern MO and
   moving into western TN, with substantial pressure rises behind. This
   feature will also initiate new storm development as it enters a
   warmer and more unstable environment to the east.

   Although shear profiles are not particularly strong, mean winds are
   sufficient for forward-propagating severe clusters. Further,
   thermodynamics should compensate for the lack of shear. The 18Z BNA
   and FFC soundings both show impressive midlevel lapse rates in
   excess of 8 C/km with MUCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg.
   Downdraft/DCAPE values are also relatively large owing to the steep
   lapse rates and dry air in the EML.

   The ample instability and lapse rates should support hail into the
   1.50 to 2.00" range, with increasing damaging wind threat as storms
   increase in coverage and outflow production is maximized.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

Latest 18z run of NAM 3k basically changes the complete outlook of the orientation and progress of these storms from more a NW to SE track in Central N. Georgia heading SE to basically West to East coverage and pressing south before then transitioning to the east & HRRR latest run moved that way too... very interesting if that's case alot more people in N. Georgia will be in coverage of this event.


----------



## yelper43 (Mar 21, 2017)

Hailing like crazy in Dalton right now


----------



## malak05 (Mar 21, 2017)

yelper43 said:


> Hailing like crazy in Dalton right now



Yeah already reports of large hail in White County GA and Jackson County AL too...


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 21, 2017)

Bring it


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Mar 21, 2017)

Got a buddy in Suches that posted up a pic of the ground slap white from hail.


----------



## hold em hook (Mar 21, 2017)

My house just got hammered with hail I am in Bsrrow 1/2 mile from Jackson County.  Porxh looks like it snowed.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 21, 2017)

Man with this hail I feel bad for the folks who fill their garages with junk instead of parking their cars in it.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 21, 2017)

Bad series of storms blew through Flintstone with hail and high winds. Thankfully there was no damage. Friend of mine in Murray County had his front porch torn off.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 21, 2017)

Friday and Saturday going to be a repeat?


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 21, 2017)

Got a little bumpy in Cartersville, the power has been out here at work since about 9pm... 
Im already over the heat... Had to turn the ac on at home today


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Mar 21, 2017)

It was blowing pretty hard in Waleska. Started at 8p.m. and lasted 45 minutes!
Power is still out and lots of limbs down no school tomorrow in Pickens county.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 22, 2017)

Well now. That unexpected gust front caught everyone by surprise. By everyone I me pro forecasters, the NWS and me. 

Welcome to spring thunderstorms.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 22, 2017)

Snowing and blustery here in Ohio this morning. Feels great.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 22, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well now. That unexpected gust front caught everyone by surprise. By everyone I me pro forecasters, the NWS and me.
> 
> Welcome to spring thunderstorms.



What the weekend hold for us ... I got to hunt turkeys Saturday


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 22, 2017)

We had high wind and rain with frequent lightning in the Branch. Had a power skip of about 60 seconds that made us light the hurricane lamps and then came back on. No damage or trees down that I saw this morning at the house, though there was one on Buford Hwy, south of McGinnis. It's been cleared off the road. I hope everyone came through this unscathed.


----------



## JSnake (Mar 22, 2017)

I live in an area with both a bunch of mature pines as well as hardwoods. Haven't seen anything like those gusts before the storm in a while. I was legitimately concerned when I took a peak at the trees behind my house. 

Power went out a little after 9 at my place. It was still out this morning and the Georgia Power outage map says it will be restored by 11:30.....PM!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 22, 2017)

Any updates about this weekend?


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 22, 2017)

JSnake said:


> I live in an area with both a bunch of mature pines as well as hardwoods. Haven't seen anything like those gusts before the storm in a while. I was legitimately concerned when I took a peak at the trees behind my house.
> 
> Power went out a little after 9 at my place. It was still out this morning and the Georgia Power outage map says it will be restored by 11:30.....PM!



Hate that for y'all jsnake! Im sure glad to here thats the worst that happened though! The linemen sure have it rough from time to time!


----------



## JSnake (Mar 22, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Hate that for y'all jsnake! Im sure glad to here thats the worst that happened though! The linemen sure have it rough from time to time!



It looks like it might be back on according to the outage map but Georgia Power certainly has their hands full in Dekalb county today. Made me think about culling a few pines this spring.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 22, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> What the weekend hold for us ... I got to hunt turkeys Saturday





smokey30725 said:


> Any updates about this weekend?



Might be able to sneak a morning hunt in on Saturday, not sure about Sunday. Still some disagreement between the Euro and the GFS so let's wait and see if tomorrow they can play better together. NAM is lagging behind on the timeline for the event between the two, maybe splitting the difference of both of them. NAM also show's higher SBCAPE and Velocities making for a more volatile system moving through. 

Again, hopefully we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 23, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Might be able to sneak a morning hunt in on Saturday, not sure about Sunday. Still some disagreement between the Euro and the GFS so let's wait and see if tomorrow they can play better together. NAM is lagging behind on the timeline for the event between the two, maybe splitting the difference of both of them. NAM also show's higher SBCAPE and Velocities making for a more volatile system moving through.
> 
> Again, hopefully we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow.



Clear as mud sir


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 23, 2017)

Updates?


----------



## Crakajak (Mar 23, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Updates?



My weather rock sez the suns coming up on Saturday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Updates?





Crakajak said:


> My weather rock sez the suns coming up on Saturday.



You are correct.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

Finally the GFS is more in agreement with the Euro for this weekend. Still a chance for some isolated severe cells on Sunday, but greatly diminished from what the GFS was showing earlier.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Mar 23, 2017)

So plan to turkey hunt Sunday morning in north east Georgia?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

deerslayer357 said:


> So plan to turkey hunt Sunday morning in north east Georgia?



If you don't mind hunting in the rain, or worse. Saturday I would feel confident getting out in the morning. Not sure about Sunday.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 23, 2017)

Looks like NW Georgia may have a small chance at severe again.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

Gonna be an active few weeks. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hop aboard the wave train... active severe weather pattern setting up for the southern U.S. in coming weeks.... pic.twitter.com/qBIyPJImkj</p>— James Spann (@spann) March 23, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

http://www.cbs46.com/story/34984925/2-tornadoes-confirmed-in-north-georgia-from-tuesday


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 23, 2017)

Im venturing out no matter what ....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 23, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> Im venturing out no matter what ....



You should be fine. I don't see the rain moving in until around 7pm-ish.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 24, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You should be fine. I don't see the rain moving in until around 7pm-ish.



I appreciate it sir! 
Wish you would've gave me a holler when you were on this side of town.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 24, 2017)

blood on the ground said:


> I appreciate it sir!
> Wish you would've gave me a holler when you were on this side of town.


If traffic hadn't cost me so much time I would have. Took me 2.5 hours to get there. An hour to measure it up and 3 hours to get to my next appointment. Then an hour home. 

I did 6.5 hours of driving on that day for an hour and a half of work. 


On a weather note, and from the SPC:



> ...Southern and Central Appalachians...
> A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the
> southern and central Appalachians on Sunday as moisture advection
> takes place due to southerly flow at the surface. The NAM suggests
> ...


----------



## whitetaco02 (Mar 24, 2017)

Can you please tell me what it will be like in Cartersville, GA this Sunday?  We have a tournament on Sunday and am curious if we have anything to worry about as far as severe weather goes.  I know it will be raining but I don't want to deal with anything severe.  Thanks!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 25, 2017)

How we looking Miggy?


----------



## fountain (Mar 26, 2017)

Something brewing in the Atlantic?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 26, 2017)

whitetaco02 said:


> Can you please tell me what it will be like in Cartersville, GA this Sunday?  We have a tournament on Sunday and am curious if we have anything to worry about as far as severe weather goes.  I know it will be raining but I don't want to deal with anything severe.  Thanks!


I guess it's too late to answer that one huh?


smokey30725 said:


> How we looking Miggy?


Post a pic of yourself and I'll let you know. 


fountain said:


> Something brewing in the Atlantic?


Yep, but it will be heading out to Bermuda. Kind of early for such shenanigans, but nothing surprises me anymore.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 26, 2017)

A chance to get a little shower or three around Tuesday, keeping my eye on next Friday. A slight negative tilt to the lps could make it bumpy for the SE. A few more days should clear up what it will be.


----------



## fountain (Mar 26, 2017)

We need some of that rain bad in my area...30428


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 27, 2017)

I put out 100+ lbs of grass seed Friday.  I can just about guarantee 2-3 weeks of no rain in NW Ga.


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 27, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> I put out 100+ lbs of grass seed Friday.  I can just about guarantee 2-3 weeks of no rain in NW Ga.



Look out the window right now.
That is what rain looks like...in case you forgot.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 27, 2017)

Small hail, heavy rain, thunder and lightning up here right now. Channel 3 saying this is the first of two bands coming through tonight.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 27, 2017)

30132 is quiet as a mouse... Bring on fall!!!


----------



## lbzdually (Mar 27, 2017)

There is an intense storm NW of Huntsville right now. Big bow in the radar, so it wouldn't surprise me a bit if a tornado dropped out of it.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 27, 2017)

Whole lotta red in this next round it looks like.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 28, 2017)

lbzdually said:


> There is an intense storm NW of Huntsville right now. Big bow in the radar, so it wouldn't surprise me a bit if a tornado dropped out of it.



Don't usually get tornado's out of bow echo's. Straight line winds and strong gusts, yes. On the lower end of a  bow you may find a cell that is organized to provide a hook / debris ball, indicating a nader. 

Soon we'll be out of the bounce n go nader season and into favorable temps where the cell tops reach high enough to produce healthy, violent long tracking well established naders. 

That is a very ugly time of year for some folk.


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 28, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Look out the window right now.
> That is what rain looks like...in case you forgot.



We got monsooned.  Twice.  Most of my seed is well downstream by now!


----------



## Dustin Pate (Mar 28, 2017)

Got a very good rain in Heard this morning morning. Maybe it will knock the pollen down for about 13 seconds.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 28, 2017)

RinggoldGa said:


> We got monsooned.  Twice.  Most of my seed is well downstream by now!



Gotta be careful what you ask for. 

We have a bizarre setup looking to form for late Thursday night into Friday. The NAM is showing good destabilization of the atmosphere to our west in MS and AL. While at the same time there is an anomaly over N Ga that will cause isolated potentially severe cells to pop up ahead of the system moving in from our west. 

NAM







The GFS is a different story, keeping the energy in Ga at lower levels and lower latitudes in our state. 

GFS






In short, neither model group has a clue what they're talking about. One thing I am sure about, it will rain Friday and hopefully be out of here before the Turkey chasin resumes Saturday morning.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 28, 2017)

Buckle up boys, looks like it could be a bumpy spring.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 28, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Buckle up boys, looks like it could be a bumpy spring.


For me, and because of what I saw a couple of days ago, I'm sticking with the NAM for this weekend's forecast. 

I have doodled on the clown map so you can see what I'm seeing. Earlier the LPS seemed to be showing the potential for a negatively tilted trough and this run of the NAM is sticking with that. Anytime we have a good negative tilt we can expect widespread severe potential. 

Does that mean it will happen in Georgia? No, the system can moderate before it gets to us. HOWEVER!!! here is what the models are not and have not handled well yet this spring. See that blue "H" up in the right hand corner? That is creating our CAD event that this warm moist air will be running headlong into. If this were winter and 30°f outside DDD would be having a cow and we would be getting dumped on. Unforunately for him but fortunately for me this is spring, with 80°f + temps bringing a cool air system in from the NW sucking amazingly warm moist air up out of the gulf and then slamming it headlong into more cold air from the NE. 

A recipe for severe weather mischief that not a single MET out there, nor the NWS will be able to predict the when, where or how much of what we'll get, just like last Tuesday when the setup was similar and we had two EF-0 Nader's in Winder and Jefferson areas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 28, 2017)

If you're not familiar with how the tilt of a trough effects the weather here's a little link that might help.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/


----------



## RinggoldGa (Mar 28, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Gotta be careful what you ask for.



The second line came through at midnight and woke me up.  I got up and looked out the window into the front yard as lightning lit up the sky. .  . there was a 4-5 foot wide stream of water coursing through my front yard. 

I'll snap a pic when the grass grows up and I've got that swath right down the middle with no new fescue in it.   A reverse mohawk if you will.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 28, 2017)

So looks like right now Euro and 3K Nam runs are building up a potential strong severe weather event for Thursday/Friday and GFS is outlier showing strong coastal convection robbing the region of elements that build the strength of the storms over MS/AL...18z 3k looks down right scary at the end of run as far as it goes in time to central alabama several soundings of tornadoes with some supercell development out in front of main line.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 28, 2017)

I'm ready for fall......


----------



## snookdoctor (Mar 28, 2017)

There are many people out there that follow and report severe weather events in order to give folks a heads up and provide lead time to take cover in serious situations. We are fortunate to have Miggy and DDD in our corner. During today's severe outbreak in Texas, three chasers lost their life in a collision while tracking a tornado warned storm.
Prayers to the three we lost, and to their family and friends.


----------



## PappyHoel (Mar 29, 2017)

Messican - what's the timing on Fridays weather?  I have the day off now but if it's a washout I will just work.  Gobble gobble


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 29, 2017)

The latest SPC day 2 and day 3 maps this morning show it hitting hard just to the west of us on Thursday, then weakening a lot by Friday. Hopefully, that trend continues. It would be nice to see some good rain without the severe stuff. That's still a couple days out, though.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 29, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'm ready for fall......



Amen...


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 29, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I'm ready for fall......



Go back to Minnesota or the Yukon or somewhere.  

It's starting to get the time of year that makes life worthwhile. Absolutely beautiful weather here today.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 29, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> It's starting to get the time of year that makes life worthwhile. Absolutely beautiful weather here today.



Where you live, sure.  For the rest of us it will soon be that time of year where it is just plain hot.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Mar 29, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Where you live, sure.  For the rest of us it will soon be that time of year where it is just plain hot.



Which is 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000x better than cold wind and snow and bare trees and dead gray lifeless everything. I love deep south low country swamp summer heat, too.

It's the south! What kind of southerner hates warm weather? I thought that was only yankees that griped about it?  I'm headed down to SC this weekend to enjoy some of it. Crappie and catfish are biting!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 29, 2017)

It was funny to me that myself, a lifelong southerner, was standing around in short sleeves last week while in Ohio in a 30 degree day with snow falling. Even the locals were whining about how cold it was. I thought it felt great.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 29, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Which is 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000x better than cold wind and snow and bare trees and dead gray lifeless everything. I love deep south low country swamp summer heat, too.
> 
> It's the south! What kind of southerner hates warm weather? I thought that was only yankees that griped about it?  I'm headed down to SC this weekend to enjoy some of it. Crappie and catfish are biting!



Note to self: stay clear of Hillbilly while he is reveling in the deep south low country swamp summer heat.


----------



## Greene728 (Mar 29, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It was funny to me that myself, a lifelong southerner, was standing around in short sleeves last week while in Ohio in a 30 degree day with snow falling. Even the locals were whining about how cold it was. I thought it felt great.



You have thyroid issues then. Find a Dr.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

keithsto said:


> Where you live, sure.  For the rest of us it will soon be that time of year where it is just plain hot.



I spent the day in Augusta Ga & SC and it was a good 15°f higher there than back up here near Atl. It was hot. I hate hot, always have and I'm born and reared in the south. 

I was built for Montana. Somebody screwed up along the way.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

Bumpy stuff moves in tomorrow night. No chasing will be happening in the dark, but the good news is it should be out of here by noon on Friday.


----------



## keithsto (Mar 30, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I spent the day in Augusta Ga & SC and it was a good 15°f higher there than back up here near Atl. It was hot. I hate hot, always have and I'm born and reared in the south.
> 
> I was built for Montana. Somebody screwed up along the way.



Same here.  Working on a cattle & chicken farm from age 5 up to 18 I learned to hate the heat.

Also love Montana and can't wait to take another trip up there.  This was June of 15.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 30, 2017)

Looks like this could be a bit sporty.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

Though it most certainly be bumpy tonight what I am most curious about is the crazy set up for Tuesday April 4th. 

Will expand on that one later in the MetShack.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Local met said, with an awesome degree of confidence, that this system tonight will be, at worst, "locally strong". He said severe weather was out of the question.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Local met said, with an awesome degree of confidence, that this system tonight will be, at worst, "locally strong". He said severe weather was out of the question.



It will be. I doubt itll be more than lightning and thunder. No damaging winds or hail! Makes for a great nights sleep with a metal roof!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Local met said, with an awesome degree of confidence, that this system tonight will be, at worst, "locally strong". He said severe weather was out of the question.





toyota4x4h said:


> It will be. I doubt itll be more than lightning and thunder. No damaging winds or hail! Makes for a great nights sleep with a metal roof!



I wish I could say stuff like that and get paid for it.


----------



## Crakajak (Mar 30, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Though it most certainly be bumpy tonight what I am most curious about is the crazy set up for Tuesday April 4th.
> 
> Will expand on that one later in the MetShack.


SNOW!!!!!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

Crakajak said:


> SNOW!!!!!!!!



Monon!!!


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Looks like they are starting to downgrade the risk factor. Spann says Alabama is out of the enhanced risk area now.


----------



## Crakajak (Mar 30, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Monon!!!



Sorry could not help myself. At lease it will be cooler and no threat of spinny things.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like they are starting to downgrade the risk factor. Spann says Alabama is out of the enhanced risk area now.



Yeah models are showing a little more gulf convection which will keep the threats in AL/GA down some but still bump weather and could be a few surprises. I suppose now for us though is to watch the radar and see if daytime warming gets ramped up and if less conviction occurs down south if so...things would bump up pretty fast


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Hoping for the best, but always preparing for the worst.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Looks like they are starting to downgrade the risk factor. Spann says Alabama is out of the enhanced risk area now.





Crakajak said:


> Sorry could not help myself. At lease it will be cooler and no threat of spinny things.



I believe it when I see it. Remember how they downgraded the storms a couple of weeks ago? Like I said before, the models don't handle the wedge (CAD) well at all, and most Mets believe everything the models say. To Spann's credit, rarely does Alabama have to deal with the wedge, unfortunately for us in Georgia I have yet to find a Met with Spann's acumen. 

I'm not reducing anything until it's over.


----------



## Patriot44 (Mar 30, 2017)

Apparently, I slept through an exciting night last night here in Memphis.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 30, 2017)

I mean the Radar returns compared to HRRR models so far aren't exactly showing same stuff so who knows really... I know it's pretty warm (82) with a few more hours of heating left and Cape will be between 300-700 over night with plenty of shear so...


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 30, 2017)

Looks like the storms in MS and AL right now are detached from the front itself.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Wind is picking up here in Dalton. Felt good while sitting in the car at lunch. I dozed off until two Ospreys flew over at nearly tree top level. Didn't know we had any stationed in north Georgia. Cool sight to see. Felt like a freight train passing over the car.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 30, 2017)

so heres the latest FFC discussion boy it's clear as mud!

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Progressive pattern will continue through the short-term as an omega
block remains anchored over western Europe. Current water vapor loop
shows the center of a strong closed mid level low over southwest
Missouri...with several shortwaves rotating about cyclonic flow to
the south of this main low. This system is being pushed east by
potent...digging trough across the western US. Analysis of latest
sfc data reveals developing low pressure across eastern Missouri and
associated cold front draped south through lower Mississippi Valley
into the western Gulf. Warm front extends east and then southeast
across OH Valley and into Southern Appalachians...where it basically
marks the wedge front boundary from high pressure ridge extending
down Eastern US from Canada.

Radar mosaic beginning to finally light up to our west...while
activity continues to our east along and ahead of the wedge/warm
front. Large complex of thunderstorms across Gulf Coast has been
slow to move today...and is showing somewhat of a weakening trend.
Evolution of this activity into the evening hours introduces
forecast uncertainty...with many factors at play.

SPC mesoanalysis continues to portray dual jet dynamics across the
northern Gulf where right entrance region of polar jet
/associated with main closed low/ and left exit region of
subtropical jet /associated with southern shortwave/ are helping to
aid the Gulf Coast complex. As this system continues to push east
into our area...heights will continue to fall and broad scale ascent
will increase. Right now...indications are for the dual jet to
weaken as closed low moves northeast and southern wave moves east.
This would act to weaken the storm complex over the Gulf and not
completely shut off our moisture transport. However...there is the
potential for left exit region of subtropical jet to sustain the
complex into the FL panhandle and rob us some moisture.
However...as/if these processes occur...main closed low will take on
a negative tilt...which will enhance lift across a good majority of
Ga...regardless of Gulf evolution. So...all in all...evolution will
be a matter of which process is dominant.

With the above in mind...Storm development /supercellular in nature/
has already occurred across southern AL out ahead of the Gulf
complex. See no reason why these storms will not sustain themselves
through the daylight hours as adequate insolation has resulted in at
least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will carry severe potential
should they move into western/SW Georgia later this afternoon given
increasing shear amidst unstable airmass. Think eventually discrete
activity will evolve into a cluster of thunderstorms /given veer-
back-veer wind profiles/ and move across majority of the area
overnight tonight into very early Friday. Regardless of discrete or
line activity....potential will exist for severe activity through
much of the overnight hours....just hard to say where exactly
largest threat will reside. All threats will be possible:
wind...hail...tornadoes. Will also monitor line of storms along the
cold front currently in western TN Valley...as this activity will
have strong lift to support it as it moves east tonight...though
aforementioned activity make have a negative effect on it.

Should see rapid clearing of precip Friday with perhaps some cu
lingering in the wake of the cold front. Surface high pressure will
be building in from the north Friday so expecting a pleasant
day...which will continue into the extended.


----------



## blood on the ground (Mar 30, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Hoping for the best, but always preparing for the worst.



Thats almost what I do....


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Mighty windy with some lightning popping off up here now.


----------



## grunt0331 (Mar 30, 2017)

Thundering in Between.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 30, 2017)

grunt0331 said:


> Thundering in Between.


Boomers are popping all around in Between and at my place just up the road from you.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 30, 2017)

Calm here now.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

Had some heavy rain around 4:30 this morning. Nothing remotely severe. Guess the local met was right! Anything new on the Tuesday system?


----------



## 3ringer (Mar 31, 2017)

Did not get a drop of rain in Jackson. Time to turn on my water pump. My yard is a dust bowl.


----------



## toyota4x4h (Mar 31, 2017)

3ringer said:


> Did not get a drop of rain in Jackson. Time to turn on my water pump. My yard is a dust bowl.



The map I just saw on fb shows lots of rain to all parts of Georgia over the next 10 days id hold up on that..


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 31, 2017)

toyota4x4h said:


> The map I just saw on fb shows lots of rain to all parts of Georgia over the next 10 days id hold up on that..



I loved watching the first cell that hit us train right up the main channel of Lanier. I hope we get some good rain. We can do without the wind, though, I imagine we'll have more trees coming down today due to the moist ground and gusty winds.


----------



## KyDawg (Mar 31, 2017)

Can't get to my cows.


----------



## KyDawg (Mar 31, 2017)

Atlanta traffic back up bad


----------



## bigelow (Mar 31, 2017)

Sorry to hear that Charlie.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Mar 31, 2017)

Had cell pop up on us in Heard yesterday evening as it got dark. I was headed home from fishing and the rain was blowing sideways to the point I almost couldn't see the road. Had some pea size hail mixed in with it.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 31, 2017)

Trying not to get ahead of myself for this Threat upcoming Monday/Tuesday cause this last one sort was a pretty good bust compared to it's potential. But the NAM/GFS/Euro all have varying levels of signals for what maybe the first Major spring severe weather outbreak across the SE this year.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 31, 2017)

12z GFS run at 00z Tuesday
SB Cape, Surface Lift, & Shear all 3 primary ingredients for Severe weather and Spinners. Georgia atmosphere according to this is plenty amplified for some major storms Monday.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 31, 2017)

12z NAM Cape, Surface Lift, and Wind Shear same signs as GFS roughly.


----------



## malak05 (Mar 31, 2017)

Miggy's may have a busy weekend watching this system


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## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Miggy's may have a busy weekend watching this system



Already on it. 

http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10668283&postcount=747


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## malak05 (Mar 31, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Already on it.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showpost.php?p=10668283&postcount=747



Look forward to it this one is looking "fun"


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## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Look forward to it this one is looking "fun"



I am seeing hints of a negative tilt in that Low that will bring us our next weather, but the temps are not quite up to par to create a "super outbreak" thus far. Winds are good, 90+ kts @ 250mb with a dynamic tropopause dropping good cold air into the mix, with 70+ kt winds @ 500mb and steady 40 kt winds nearing the surface. Not a lot of divergence in the winds just yet, but if that low can shift north just a fraction it will change the crossover wind dynamics significantly. 

At this point I am just monitoring the models. So much can change over the next three days to change the behavior of this system and how it effects us. Thus far it is shaping up to be one of the strongest systems we've had since the severe outbreak in SOWEGA earlier this winter. 

OH, and for whoever it was that said no severe weather would accompany last nights storms! They were wrong. Stone Mountain area got hammered with a good many trees and power lines down during that STS Warned cell that moved from South to North ahead of the main front.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

Keep the naders away. Not very fond of them.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Keep the naders away. Not very fond of them.



You just can't be satisfied can you?


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Mar 31, 2017)

Any thoughts on Glenn Burns' latest post 45 minutes ago that says "big" cold snap a week from today?


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You just can't be satisfied can you?



I've always been somewhat of a malcontent.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Any thoughts on Glenn Burns' latest post 45 minutes ago that says "big" cold snap a week from today?



At this point, a blizzard wouldn't surprise me.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Any thoughts on Glenn Burns' latest post 45 minutes ago that says "big" cold snap a week from today?



In the thirties next Friday and Saturday night.

But that isn't the big weather news. The more I look at the NAM for Monday evening into Tuesday the worse it gets. 

Have to run an errand, but when I get back I will update here and in the Met Shack.  

Clue; It's looking pretty dang bad.


----------



## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

When Miggy says it's looking bad, I start to worry.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> When Miggy says it's looking bad, I start to worry.



Just got back. Give me a few to gather the info.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Mar 31, 2017)

Read it.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10670735#post10670735


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## smokey30725 (Mar 31, 2017)

Looks like NW Georgia misses it all. We will be praying for the safety of those in the path of it.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 1, 2017)

SPC AC 010729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

 ...Southeast...
   Model output appears to be generally trending a bit farther to the north with the track of the lead impulse and associated surface cyclone, leading to increasing concern that a more substantive influx of moisture may spread farther inland across portions of Alabama and Georgia than previously anticipated.  It appears that this could precede at least the remnants of a significant mesoscale  convective system which may be ongoing at 12Z Monday, and in the process of advancing east of the lower Mississippi Valley.

   Guidance is unclear whether the primary severe weather potential will accompany continuation or re-intensification of this activity, or redevelopment in its wake.  *It appears possible that it could be some combination of the two scenarios, with a continuing risk for severe wind gusts/tornadoes with the initial line as it progresses across parts of eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into parts of western Georgia during the day Monday* before weakening.  As stronge mid/upper forcing for ascent shifts northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast region, renewed strong/severe storm development may not be out of the question on its southern periphery, across the piedmont of Georgia into the Carolinas.  *Deep layer shear is likely to be sufficient to support organized severe storm development. * However, potential for appreciable boundary layer destabilization appears to decrease to the north and northeast of the Georgia piedmont.

   ..Kerr.. 04/01/2017

Checking soundings across the effected region this morning continue to return "PDS Tornado" potential.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

No yesterday's weather intel wasn't an April Fools Joke.

Read today's and start prepping. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10671506#post10671506

And heed this 



> SPC AC 020533
> 
> Day 2 Convective Outlook
> NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
> ...


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## malak05 (Apr 2, 2017)

Miggy right on it this is building up to be one of the stronger true severe weather threats we had in past few years in size and scope everyone keep updated on this as it goes into tomorrow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

Timeline on tomorrow's weather is part of the uptick in the critical nature for our area. Current NAM indicates it could be around 4pm. Prime storm time during the day, worst possible traffic time for the ATL, especially given the current circumstances. 

This timeline can vary based upon real world weather and is to be used as a generalization for planning your day. 

Look at the probabilistic percentages. You haven't seen anything this high for any portion of Georgia in a long time. This is NOT good.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

First pic is the tornado signatures I'll be looking for tomorrow, second pic is an expanded view with potential spotter reports. If it gets this active up my way and these cells aren't rain wrapped, and it isn't after dark I may be out chasing a cell or two. 

This is active radar screen shots out of central Louisiana right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Earlier Sunday there was a Tornado Emergency in Alexandria, LA. This was the tornado on the ground as it moved through the area. #LAwx pic.twitter.com/AmUYfv93pK</p>— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) April 2, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

Damage in Alexandria La.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

Current NAMNEST simrad puts the front in Ga around 2 ish. 
The HRRR which only goes out 18 hours is about an hour behind that. 

Right now it is a good bet it will be an afternoon system.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 2, 2017)

Mig,
I never ask IMBY questions and do my best to decipher the maps and figure things out on my own. However, I'm particularly concerned as we are supposed to be leaving Tuesday around lunch time headed to Cloudland Canyon SP till Saturday. How's things looking up that way for Wednesday system and the rest of the week. I'll have my family with me and wanna be prepared as possible. I do have a warning app or two on my phone and may even carry my SAME weather radio. I'm concerned about time line and potential intensity being in a camper. 
Thanks!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> Mig,
> I never ask IMBY questions and do my best to decipher the maps and figure things out on my own. However, I'm particularly concerned as we are supposed to be leaving Tuesday around lunch time headed to Cloudland Canyon SP till Saturday. How's things looking up that way for Wednesday system and the rest of the week. I'll have my family with me and wanna be prepared as possible. I do have a warning app or two on my phone and may even carry my SAME weather radio. I'm concerned about time line and potential intensity being in a camper.
> Thanks!


I haven't studied Wednesday/Thursday's system at any depth yet. As soon as I do I will let you know.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

If you see this, DO NOT keep driving towards it!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 2, 2017)

Tomorrow afternoon.











Wednesday evening.


----------



## lbzdually (Apr 2, 2017)

What time will the storms hit NW Georgia tomorrow morning?  Some are saying 7-8 in the morning, others 3-4 in the afternoon.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 2, 2017)

It appears the worst of it will be south of my area. Is this the type of system that can change rapidly, or do they pretty much follow the outlined path that's forecasted in advance?


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 2, 2017)

Bring it


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It appears the worst of it will be south of my area. Is this the type of system that can change rapidly, or do they pretty much follow the outlined path that's forecasted in advance?



Smokey I am 50 miles south of you in Waleska and I am not letting my guard down. This thing is going to be very ugly and there is no way we can say that we will be missed by this system. Be on your toes up there!!


----------



## lbzdually (Apr 3, 2017)

We've had quite a bit of rain here lately and I'm afraid heavy winds will take a lot of trees down.


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Apr 3, 2017)

Radar is showing the rain moving in your way and no red in the storms..... YET !!! Still the heaviest stuff in Mississippi all yellow there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

YankeeRedneck said:


> Radar is showing the rain moving in your way and no red in the storms..... YET !!! Still the heaviest stuff in Mississippi all yellow there.



What about purple? If there is purple what then?


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What about purple? If there is purple what then?



purple --> royal








as in royally messed up.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Give me a 'B'. Give me a 'U'. Give me an 'S'. Give me a 'T'. 

What does that spell?

Geesh I'm getting tired of the model data being so blatantly irrelevant the day of the event. 

We might see some threats in S. Al and SOWEGA, but dadgum this thing went from 500mph on the models to a screeching halt over night, in terms of severity. 

I'd still keep my eyes and ears peeled. I have about as much faith in the NWS, SPC and local Mets now as I do my ex-wife.  I might just go back to forecasting by my weather stick and weather rock. 

They are more reliable.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## deerslayer357 (Apr 3, 2017)

Suits me fine for everyone of these systems to bust.  I don't like spinny things!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

deerslayer357 said:


> Suits me fine for everyone of these systems to bust.  I don't like spinny things!



It is frustrating for us. As early as 5 or so years ago the model data was so reliable that I could nail down a severe outbreak over a week in advance, now with updated technology and more satellites in the air they can't program the data to get this crap right the day before an event.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Give me a 'B'. Give me a 'U'. Give me an 'S'. Give me a 'T'.
> 
> What does that spell?
> 
> ...



When the forecast is for naders and severe thunderstorms, I am ALWAYS rootin for a BUST.


----------



## deerslayer357 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It is frustrating for us. As early as 5 or so years ago the model data was so reliable that I could nail down a severe outbreak over a week in advance, now with updated technology and more satellites in the air they can't program the data to get this crap right the day before an event.



I can understand that would be very frustrating!  And I appreciate what you and DDD do, but I don't like spinny things!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

I'm going to have to go back to old school methods and bust the models before they bust themselves, or confirm a forecast before they ever know there is one. Jackleg idiot computer nerds programming data into models that don't have a clue what they're doing!!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

At least the spotters in SW AL are having some fun this morning.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Here's a clue for you nader chasers. In my experience, when you see non-stop lightning and hear no, or very little thunder you have a nader. It's a strange phenomenon, but it has been present in nearly every tornado cell I've been close to. 

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Crazy storm right now #batonrouge #lawx #severeweather #stormhour @StormHour pic.twitter.com/v5iueVWsZp</p>— David Malta (@maltadavid_) April 3, 2017</blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

This system is just now beginning to tap into the Gulf Moisture. We'll see if it stays a bust or not. GoM water temps are 73°f near shore and 76°f off shore. 
This could easily and rapidly re-intensify to give us a very interesting day.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

STP is still in tlup to 3 north of I20 per models for most part a value of 1 or higher is usually consider strong enough to support tornadoes so may be down some but still anybody Floyd county GA south isn't out of woods


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> STP is still in tlup to 3 north of I20 per models for most part a value of 1 or higher is usually consider strong enough to support tornadoes so may be down some but still anybody Floyd county GA south isn't out of woods


I agree, and think the SPC has missed the boat with the GoM moisture that is about to be picked up and potential rapid intensification. I believe it isn't out of the question for the Severe areas to expand to yesterdays SPC potential areas as far north as Paulding County and East of there. 

I never expected the Spring models to have the inconsistencies we found in all of the Winter models. I do hope they get this sorted out in short order. Spring and early Summer severe weather is nothing to play with, and lives are at risk when they get it wrong.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I agree, and think the SPC has missed the boat with the GoM moisture that is about to be picked up and potential rapid intensification. I believe it isn't out of the question for the Severe areas to expand to yesterdays SPC potential areas as far north as Paulding County and East of there.
> 
> I never expected the Spring models to have the inconsistencies we found in all of the Winter models. I do hope they get this sorted out in short order. Spring and early Summer severe weather is nothing to play with, and lives are at risk when they get it wrong.



It's bad to bust on severe weather that doesn't happen but it's worst to bust on severe not happening and then it does


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

If it does amp up you will know in about 2 hours


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> It's bad to bust on severe weather that doesn't happen but it's worst to bust on severe not happening and then it does



Clear as mud. 

But I know what you are saying.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

I reckon this might test the new roof we just had put on the house. They finished it up Friday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I reckon this might test the new roof we just had put on the house. They finished it up Friday.



It will indeed. Tornado watch will be issued for your area closer to noon.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Purple stuff WNW of Mobile! What now!!! 
Sorry, just had to have some fun with that.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It will indeed. Tornado watch will be issued for your area closer to noon.





I had planned to set my tipi up at Chehaw this afternoon for the Indian Festival this weekend, but I think I`ll wait till maybe tomorrow or Wednesday now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I had planned to set my tipi up at Chehaw this afternoon for the Indian Festival this weekend, but I think I`ll wait till maybe tomorrow or Wednesday now.



I would seriously wait until after Wednesday's system rolls through. It has the potential to be just as bad if not worse for SOWEGA.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 3, 2017)

On top of the severe stuff today and Wednesday, the s-word is in our local forecast for Thursday night-Friday morning.  Welcome to April.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I would seriously wait until after Wednesday's system rolls through. It has the potential to be just as bad if not worse for SOWEGA.




Noted. Thanks, Hugh!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> On top of the severe stuff today and Wednesday, the s-word is in our local forecast for Thursday night-Friday morning.  Welcome to April.



Welcome to Western NC.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

The Gulf of Mexico is now officially open for business.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Just drove through some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen on my way down to Dalton. Even did a little slipping and sliding. Hope this is the worst of it for us.


----------



## Mountainbuck (Apr 3, 2017)

Wow that's cool


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Just talked to a good friend that lives in Apalachicola. I`m glad I`m not floating around in the Bay right now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Just talked to a good friend that lives in Apalachicola. I`m glad I`m not floating around in the Bay right now.



It is going to be dangerous down there in a few short hours. My boy is in PCB on spring break, and I warned him before he left that today was going to be a good one to stay indoors.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

It's calmed down here considerably. Hope that's as bad as it gets.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Aaaaaaaaaannnnndddd as soon as I typed that, the rain returned.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The Gulf of Mexico is now officially open for business.



The imagery from GOES-16 sure is cool looking.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> It's calmed down here considerably. Hope that's as bad as it gets.





smokey30725 said:


> Aaaaaaaaaannnnndddd as soon as I typed that, the rain returned.



You're a slow learner, aren't you?


----------



## glue bunny (Apr 3, 2017)

Wind is picking up and low rumbling thunder here in the monticello area already. Sky has an eerie color to it...


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

Rain in Cartersville...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Once the rain starts to clear you'll think you're in the clear, but there is a wake low forming behind this system that could usher in 40 to 50 mph winds and still bring down trees and power lines after the rain has cleared out. 

Just letting y'all know, especially Smokey30725, in case he thinks it's over again.


----------



## gobbleinwoods (Apr 3, 2017)

just unzipped here in 30055


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Once the rain starts to clear you'll think you're in the clear, but there is a wake low forming behind this system that could usher in 40 to 50 mph winds and still bring down trees and power lines after the rain has cleared out.
> 
> Just letting y'all know, especially Smokey30725, in case he thinks it's over again.



What can I say? Most of my family hails from Alabama and runs around yelling "Roll Tide". I'm trying to escape the stigma.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> What can I say? Most of my family hails from Alabama and runs around yelling "Roll Tide". I'm trying to escape the stigma.



They are extremely smart people. ROLL TIDE!!!!

For folks on the West Ga line south of I-20 there is a line of rain moving in that is carrying some good wind with it. Expect 40+ mph gusts that have left a fair many trees and power lines down in Alabama. 

These are not severe cells, but do have the ability to do damage with the wind associated with them.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

Thundering in the 30132... I love days like this!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1029 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ024-025-027-035>038-031500-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
Oconee GA-
1029 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS...
EASTERN JACKSON...EASTERN BARROW...NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE
AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

At 1029 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Beechwood Hills, or
near Athens...moving northeast at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Commerce, Watkinsville, Danielsville, Athens, Statham, Arcade,
Nicholson, Comer, Winterville, Bogart, Colbert, Arnoldsville, Ila,
Bishop, Hull, Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park, Diamond
Hill and Smithonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3427 8334 3424 8334 3426 8331 3418 8310
      3417 8310 3415 8308 3416 8307 3413 8305
      3412 8304 3377 8331 3389 8361 3430 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 203DEG 58KT 3396 8344

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

NE at 65 combined with 40MPH winds in a microburst could be awful. 

Hey, MC, when NWS PTC posts that they're watching an area for future "ww" is that shorthand for watches and warnings?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> NE at 65 combined with 40MPH winds in a microburst could be awful.
> 
> Hey, MC, when NWS PTC posts that they're watching an area for future "ww" is that shorthand for watches and warnings?



Yes.

These cells are moving fast though.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes.
> 
> These cells are moving fast though.



Thankya sir.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Dang I'm good!


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

Warning!!! Not good!!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

Man its rockin here....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Gettin fast and furious on my end. Tough to keep up with all corners of the state that are about to be effected. 

Y'all stay safe, if I miss your area it isn't because I was ignoring it.


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

It aint been this exciting since big Es pass in the grass!!!


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Wind getting up here a good bit.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

May have found an app that lets me share my radar shots with y'all. The outflow from the Paulding storms is amazing.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Apr 3, 2017)

Got rough in Carrollton per wife. No power and multiple reports of trees down across city.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> May have found an app that lets me share my radar shots with y'all. The outflow from the Paulding storms is amazing.



Family just in West Paulding county near Rockmart reports from WSB two tornado touchdowns near Due West Rd and Greystone Blvd


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

Fulton county tornado warning.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Strong couplet in W. Central Ga. 

<p>via GIPHY</p>


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Just to let y'all see what my radar GRlevel3 radar screen looks like. It's like trying to catch a spider monkey in a christmas tree. 

<p>via GIPHY</p>


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Family just in West Paulding county near Rockmart reports from WSB two tornado touchdowns near Due West Rd and Greystone Blvd



Paulding EMS recently said that there were no confirmed touchdowns after they got out to look.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Good steady rain falling here in Dalton. Slowed down considerably from earlier today.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

The first image from Carrollton of tree Damage etc

The 2nd image is not very good looking but it's supposed to be from Paulding County and based off my familiarity with the area this is perhaps from 278 headed south and that maybe the Kennestone Hospital on that way and what maybe a Funnel Cloud in Background? Thoughts if so that would line up with reports of hitting Tractor Supply store and Greystone power right on 278


----------



## DCHunter (Apr 3, 2017)

My brother claims a tornado touched down a mile from my house in south douglas county along the Chatthoochee River. I don't know if it really did or not.


----------



## blondiega1 (Apr 3, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Paulding EMS recently said that there were no confirmed touchdowns after they got out to look.



Thank Goodness!  That was WAY too close to home!


----------



## keithsto (Apr 3, 2017)

Had _maybe_ 35 mph gusts at work in Lawrenceville.  Storm was really bowing out heading this way from ATL, but it is just a light rain now.


----------



## Dustin Pate (Apr 3, 2017)

There is a video on Facebook showing the roof being ripped off the fire station behind West Georgia College.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


>





That`s the heart of my old turkey hunting grounds.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 3, 2017)

Now hoping the tornado warned storm down around Griffin calms down before it makes its way NE towards the house in Good Hope.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

<p>via GIPHY</p>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Damage in Griffin


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

My son just sent us info that it got bad in Ellaville. Big tree fell and barely missed his car. He`s got some video as the storm hit and went through.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> My son just sent us info that it got bad in Ellaville. Big tree fell and barely missed his car. He`s got some video as the storm hit and went through.



Sent a text and tried to warn DPoole it was headin his way. 

Powerlines down in Rockdale county just reported also.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Macon, Gray, Haddock and beyond. This one means business. 

<p>via GIPHY</p>


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)




----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Bad rain just started here.


----------



## glue bunny (Apr 3, 2017)

I think I made it thru the worst of it..


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Hate they got thumped but glad to see that boy back up to speed.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Hate they got thumped but glad to see that boy back up to speed.






Hugh, he did say he saw the funnel cloud up there. That`s two tornadoes he`s been through now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Hugh, he did say he saw the funnel cloud up there. That`s two tornadoes he`s been through now.



He might be a nader magnet. I'd stay clear of him during a storm.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> He might be a nader magnet. I'd stay clear of him during a storm.





You got that right! Check your FB.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> You got that right! Check your FB.



Saw that. Mean lookin cloud.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Saw that. Mean lookin cloud.





You see the tornado footage in Ellaville?


----------



## ryork (Apr 3, 2017)

I saw quite a bit of damage in and around the downtown area of Carrollton earlier. Lots of large trees across streets/roads, some on houses etc. Some structural damage here and there (Fire Station). Most of it seemed to be centered from the University area and towards the Square area. Power out pretty much all over, and traffic was an absolute disaster particularly down around the Tanner Medical vicinity.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Just got word that it was bad in Albany again. Trees down, power outages.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Prayers sent for all those affected. Hopefully this one is done and the Wednesday system won't amount to much.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> You see the tornado footage in Ellaville?



I missed that. Hang on.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Where's it at on FB Nick? I'm not seeing it.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Where's it at on FB Nick? I'm not seeing it.





Go to The Redhead`s page. It`s on there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Go to The Redhead`s page. It`s on there.



Sent her a friend request. Can't see it till she figures out if I'm worth it or not.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

That's a good video Nick!!


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That's a good video Nick!!




I found it on the WALB page. Rain has slacked up here for now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> I found it on the WALB page. Rain has slacked up here for now.



Should be good from here on out. Birds are singing here. That's a good sign.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Should be good from here on out. Birds are singing here. That's a good sign.



Yep everyone West of Athens should be in clear and now on to Wednesday threat where we may do this all over again


----------



## mguthrie (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Yep everyone West of Athens should be in clear and now on to Wednesday threat where we may do this all over again



There's still tornado warned storms in central ga. This is far from over


----------



## mguthrie (Apr 3, 2017)

The radar I'm seeing from north of Dublin looks pretty bad. Hope folks down that way are watching


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

Ya'll enjoy the break tonight and tomorrow. Wednesday we get to do it all over again. 














Today's storms were only rated at around 2500 J kg coming in on the forecast. The SBCAPE for Wednesday is in the critical range at well over 4000 J kg.


----------



## Nicodemus (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Should be good from here on out. Birds are singing here. That's a good sign.





Cows done come out of hiding and are feeding heavy again too.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Ya'll enjoy the break tonight and tomorrow. Wednesday we get to do it all over again.
> 
> View attachment 901906
> 
> ...



Looks like Paulding County and much of the same areas all under the gun... Particular Paulding looks like Mother Nature has it out for us


----------



## mguthrie (Apr 3, 2017)

I hope Quacks awake. Looks to be headed his way now


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Looks like Paulding County and much of the same areas all under the gun... Particular Paulding looks like Mother Nature has it out for us



The worst part is we only made it to the mid 60's today. It will be in the 80's Tuesday and mid to upper 70's on Wednesday. It will be a powder keg waiting to go off.


----------



## hayseed_theology (Apr 3, 2017)

Nicodemus said:


> Just got word that it was bad in Albany again. Trees down, power outages.



Just saw some pics. Some big trees down.  Damage to structures appears relatively minor. Nothing like January.  Multiple reports of seeing a funnel cloud, but no official word on a tornado.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 3, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> I hope Quacks awake. Looks to be headed his way now



Yeah, and the nastiest part blew right over his house.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

I must be living right. Both of these systems barely glance my little corner of NW Georgia. Hope the Wednesday system falls apart and doesn't bring any more damage to these areas.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I must be living right. Both of these systems barely glance my little corner of NW Georgia. Hope the Wednesday system falls apart and doesn't bring any more damage to these areas.



I just want the rain in the lake.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 3, 2017)

Tornado warning over my place in SC right now. Glad I came back yesterday. Hope my buddies down there don't get hit.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Tornado warning over my place in SC right now. Glad I came back yesterday. Hope my buddies down there don't get hit.



Here I thought you were gonna say it was 28* with 6" on the ground at your place.


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Apr 3, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yeah, and the nastiest part blew right over his house.



 A co-worker's dad lives across the road from Quack across the road from Quack, and siad there was a good bit of Hail there


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman (Apr 3, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Here I thought you were gonna say it was 28* with 6" on the ground at your place.



That's coming Thursday.


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 3, 2017)

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Here I thought you were gonna say it was 28* with 6" on the ground at your place.





northgeorgiasportsman said:


> That's coming Thursday.



Yep, no joke. That's about the forecast for Thursday night.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 3, 2017)

No thanks, April is for spring. I can barely stand the one allergy season let alone have 3 in a single year.


----------



## telco guy (Apr 3, 2017)

*Damage*

This is Hays Tractor in Mansfield Ga


----------



## blondiega1 (Apr 3, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Looks like Paulding County and much of the same areas all under the gun... Particular Paulding looks like Mother Nature has it out for us



I really hope I don't have to head for the basement again.
Today is the first time in a very long time that I was genuinely scared.







.


----------



## sbfowler (Apr 3, 2017)

Clarks Hill Lake/Columbia County, GA: http://www.wrdw.com/content/news/Re...ollapses-people-fall-in-water--417999533.html


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

sbfowler said:


> Clarks Hill Lake/Columbia County, GA: http://www.wrdw.com/content/news/Re...ollapses-people-fall-in-water--417999533.html



Oh man................


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

blondiega1 said:


> I really hope I don't have to head for the basement again.
> Today is the first time in a very long time that I was genuinely scared.
> 
> 
> ...



Well Latest NAM run shows two Threats on Wednesday one around 18z Wednesday that will be Afternoon and then one again as secondary line moves thru around 03z which will be probably around 10 PM to 1 AM Thursday.

Both events have high STP levels from 1.5 to 5 as it moves across state during respective periods.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Has the track shifted any? Early models were showing a similar setup to today, which mainly missed the NW part of the state.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Has the track shifted any? Early models were showing a similar setup to today, which mainly missed the NW part of the state.



Well as of right now for Flintstone and extreme NW Georgia the first wave should miss you guys as far a severe weather the CAPE/Lift never really get up there then but that secondary wave storm stretches From I-20 to N. Tennessee and basically all of Georgia will be at very high levels of Cape and Lift so even extreme NW Georgia may see some severe weather.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

Weather channel and all the respected twitter mets are saying Wednesday into Thursday will be a two punch system and will be even more powerful than today's. Man, I hope they are wrong.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 3, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> Weather channel and all the respected twitter mets are saying Wednesday into Thursday will be a two punch system and will be even more powerful than today's. Man, I hope they are wrong.




Me too Smokey. Me and three camper loads of my family will be at Cloudland Canyon SP. I though very seriously about cancelling. Praying I don't regret it.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 3, 2017)

You're not far from me at all. I can be at cloudland canyon in around 30 minutes. Hope this doesn't become dangerous.


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Apr 3, 2017)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> A co-worker's dad lives across the road from Quack across the road from Quack, and siad there was a good bit of Hail there





You can say that twice bro !!!  We were leaving Tates and IT hit, wind/rain and hail before we could load up Susie and get home.  If it weren't for the Generac, we would still be out of power (5hrs and going)


I think everytime EMC passes by our shack, they think we've got power . .


----------



## Hooked On Quack (Apr 3, 2017)

RUTTNBUCK said:


> A co-worker's dad lives across the road from Quack across the road from Quack, and siad there was a good bit of Hail there





That ain't the GBI dood is it ???


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 3, 2017)

Didn't get bad enough in the 30132


----------



## YankeeRedneck (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What about purple? If there is purple what then?



Hey I'm working third shift and get a little wound up when these storms are around!   I bow to you my king!!


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 4, 2017)

YankeeRedneck said:


> Hey I'm working third shift and get a little wound up when these storms are around!   I bow to you my king!!



Noodle!!! Feed it back to him... He loves to be called doctor!!!

I like perdy cullers to, two, too


----------



## RUTTNBUCK (Apr 4, 2017)

Hooked On Quack said:


> You can say that twice bro !!!  We were leaving Tates and IT hit, wind/rain and hail before we could load up Susie and get home.  If it weren't for the Generac, we would still be out of power (5hrs and going)
> 
> 
> I think everytime EMC passes by our shack, they think we've got power . .


We didn't get power back till after midnight.......The portable Generac we have is some of the best money I have spent!!............EMC scared the crap out of me 11:00 at night lights out, and I see someone with a flashlight walking around in my yard!!



Hooked On Quack said:


> That ain't the GBI dood is it ???


Yes it is


----------



## blood on the ground (Apr 4, 2017)

Next!


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook
Censored

DayCensored2CensoredRiskAreaCensored(sq.Censoredmi.)AreaCensoredPop.SomeCensoredLargerCensoredPopulationCensoredCentersCensoredinCensoredRiskCensoredAreaMODERATE59,3919,335,586Atlanta, GA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...ENHANCED159,90024,148,647Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...SLIGHT116,39613,738,256Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Savannah, GA...MARGINAL115,38816,944,596Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Cleveland, OH...Raleigh, NC...Toledo, OH...

CensoredForecast Discussion SPC AC 040538 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TROUGH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible across much of the Southeast, northward along and west of the Appalachians into the Ohio Valley, Wednesday through Wednesday night. This is expected to include supercell development with a risk for tornadoes, some of which could become strong and long-lived, particularly across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Amplification within the westerlies now appears underway across the eastern Pacific through the Pacific Coast region, and is expected to gradually translate eastward across and east of the Rockies through this forecast period. As large-scale ridging builds across the U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies, large-scale downstream troughing is forecast to continue to evolve east of the high Plains through the vicinity of the Appalachians by 12Z Thursday. Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will already be well underway by 12Z Wednesday across southern Missouri, associated with a vigorous short wave impulse within the southern stream of split westerlies, and forecast to turn northeast of the southern Rockies today. Guidance indicates at least some interaction or phasing of the two streams is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night, with at least one northern stream impulse digging (across the northern Plains/mid Missouri Valley) into the evolving larger scale upper troughing by the end of the period. This interaction remains a point of model uncertainty, and will have an impact on the track and rate of deepening of the surface cyclone. Regardless, the models generally indicate at least slow further deepening, as the low migrates through the lower Ohio Valley into the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region by 12Z Thursday. South of the cyclone, an associated cold front is expected to eventually surge east of the Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians. Low-level moisture will still be in the process of returning ahead of the front, in the wake of a prior system. This remains the primary uncertainty which could temper the overall severe weather potential somewhat, as the environmental conditions associated with evolving synoptic system appear otherwise favorable for an outbreak of severe storms over a broad area east of the Mississippi Valley into the vicinity of the Appalachians. And confidence in sufficient moistening and destabilization are increasing. ...Southeast... Greatest confidence in substantive boundary layer moistening still appears across portions of the eastern Gulf states into the south Atlantic Coast states. Vigorous convective development may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday inland of the northeast Gulf coast, in response to destabilization associated with the moistening, and large-scale ascent associated with low-level warm advection. Models are suggestive that forcing for this activity will be aided by a high-level subtropical speed maximum, which may contribute to an increase in coverage through the day, within the northeastward advecting plume of richer precipitable water content. In the presence of at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, and wind profiles becoming characterized by strong deep layer shear and sizable low-level hodographs, considerable organized severe weather potential appears to exist. This is expected to include discrete supercells accompanied by the risk for large hail and tornadoes. In the wake of initial convective development expected to spread northward across and to the lee of the southern Appalachians during the day, guidance suggests new discrete storm development is possible within a low-level confluence zone across southern/eastern Alabama into western Georgia, with the environment ahead of this activity possibly becoming conducive to long-lived supercells with potential for strong tornadoes. Additional pre-frontal storm development is also possible to the west of this activity Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Confidence is increasing in warm sector moisture return that will become supportive of weak to moderate CAPE, within at least a narrow pre-frontal plume overspreading the region from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening. Aided by forcing within the exit region of a 70-90 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet, and strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to 30-50 kt within the warm sector, the environment is expected to become conducive to discrete supercell storm development, at least initially. This is expected to be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Eventually, large-scale forcing may support upscale growing lines or clusters of storms accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

If Monday was the atmosphere warming up for severe weather tomorrow it will be running full tilt. If things stay same as currently modeled could very well see F3+ and long track tornadoes in parts of GA


----------



## Lukikus2 (Apr 4, 2017)

malak05 said:


> If Monday was the atmosphere warming up for severe weather tomorrow it will be running full tilt. If things stay same as currently modeled could very well see F3+ and long track tornadoes in parts of GA



That's something folks should seriously prepare for.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 4, 2017)

Lukikus2 said:


> That's something folks should seriously prepare for.



Yesterday felt incredibly helpless as I was watching the circulation on radar that did a bit of damage in Mansfield head right over the house.  Thankfully no damage though.


----------



## StriperrHunterr (Apr 4, 2017)

There was minor roof damage to the tin roof on a boat storage place down the road from my place in Flowery Branch.


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 4, 2017)

I wish severe weather would avoid Georgia the same way that snow always eludes us.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I wish severe weather would avoid Georgia the same way that snow always eludes us.



Seems like the only things that verify in the South is Severe weather


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

12z NAM models are running and those are the one's to focus on until HRRR come into range late tonight


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 4, 2017)

In for updates.............


----------



## blondiega1 (Apr 4, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Well Latest NAM run shows two Threats on Wednesday one around 18z Wednesday that will be Afternoon and then one again as secondary line moves thru around 03z which will be probably around 10 PM to 1 AM Thursday.
> 
> Both events have high STP levels from 1.5 to 5 as it moves across state during respective periods.



UGH!!
I've lived in Georgia my entire life and yesterday was the first time in 47 years I've ever felt the need to take cover.
If that rotation the radar spotted over Dallas had decided to hit ground, it would have been right on top of us.
I am not looking forward to Wednesday.






.


----------



## Crakajak (Apr 4, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I wish severe weather would avoid Georgia the same way that snow always eludes us.



You got that right brother!!!!!!!!!


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

I tried to create a GIF of whole event but it's too large for the site upload functions so here's 3 shots of Sim reflectivity during tomorrow 14z,21z, and 00z respectfully. As you can tell the Radar will look Nasty tomorrow but the details not listed are the Shear/Cape/Lift details and they are all gonna be very high tomorrow. The 14z period is the most limited as far as those values right now but no one should be sleeping on it either... But 21z and 00z the atmosphere should be ripe for producing Hail, Tornadoes and some strong ones... the SPC outlook looks spot on currently based on models wouldn't be shocked to see a smaller bubble around I-20 in West Georgia and a little south get moved to Sev. 5 levels if trend continues before storms roll in...


----------



## snookdoctor (Apr 4, 2017)

Can y'all start using o'clock times? Most folks on here don't have a clue what zulu is. It may help them understand the timing of events.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 4, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Can y'all start using o'clock times? Most folks on here don't have a clue what zulu is. It may help them understand the timing of events.



I agree. Especially during events such as this.


----------



## mguthrie (Apr 4, 2017)

snookdoctor said:


> Can y'all start using o'clock times? Most folks on here don't have a clue what zulu is. It may help them understand the timing of events.



This^^^. I have no clue what time it predicted to move into the Atlanta area


----------



## smokey30725 (Apr 4, 2017)

Dang, that third graphic has it sitting right over my house.


----------



## DCHunter (Apr 4, 2017)

Subtract 5 hours from it using military time. 14z is 9am, 21z is 4pm and 0z is 7pm.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 4, 2017)

DCHunter said:


> Subtract 5 hours from it using military time. 14z is 9am, 21z is 4pm and 0z is 7pm.



Actually subtract 4 hours right now as we are in EDT.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 4, 2017)

Here's the gif:


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 4, 2017)

DCHunter said:


> Subtract 5 hours from it using military time. 14z is 9am, 21z is 4pm and 0z is 7pm.





keithsto said:


> Actually subtract 4 hours right now as we are in EDT.



Or, just post the normal human time that everyone on here except for meteorologists uses. If you're trying to warn somebody about dangerous weather, use language that they can understand to begin with.


----------



## Greene728 (Apr 4, 2017)

That sure looks mean! 

I don't like it!


----------



## NCHillbilly (Apr 4, 2017)

smokey30725 said:


> I wish severe weather would avoid Georgia the same way that snow always eludes us.



Let's put that in a little perspective. You know that sinking feeling you get in the pit of your stomach when you hear that a tornado outbreak is coming? That's the exact feeling that we get here when we hear that a big winter storm is coming. Because we know that everything is going to be disrupted for days, people are going to die and be injured, property will be destroyed, and countless people will be freezing without electricity.

The blizzard of '93 that some on here talk about like it was a great, harmless entertainment (and wish every year for a repeat of,) killed over 300 people. Think about that. Thousands of homes and business were destroyed. That's the equivalent of a major tornado outbreak. I don't wish for winter storms any more than I wish for severe spring storms.


----------



## keithsto (Apr 4, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Let's put that in a little perspective. You know that sinking feeling you get in the pit of your stomach when you hear that a tornado outbreak is coming? That's the exact feeling that we get here when we hear that a big winter storm is coming. Because we know that everything is going to be disrupted for days, people are going to die and be injured, property will be destroyed, and countless people will be freezing without electricity.
> 
> The blizzard of '93 that some on here talk about like it was a great, harmless entertainment killed over 300 people. Think about that. Thousands of homes and business were destroyed. That's the equivalent of a major tornado outbreak. I don't wish for winter storms any more than I wish for severe spring storms.



I'd gladly give up the possibility of ever seeing another snowflake at the house if it meant I didn't have to worry about severe t'storms & tornadoes ever again.


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

DCHunter said:


> Subtract 5 hours from it using military time. 14z is 9am, 21z is 4pm and 0z is 7pm.



Thanks I was going to provided this but had to run to meeting at work... If your looking at model time just subtract 5 hours from whatever time zulu time it shows as 21z is 9PM so based on model times conversion to our time zone that would be 4 PM...I'm pretty sure that's how that works...ditto subtract 4 hours since it's EDT


----------



## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

NCHillbilly said:


> Let's put that in a little perspective. You know that sinking feeling you get in the pit of your stomach when you hear that a tornado outbreak is coming? That's the exact feeling that we get here when we hear that a big winter storm is coming. Because we know that everything is going to be disrupted for days, people are going to die and be injured, property will be destroyed, and countless people will be freezing without electricity.
> 
> The blizzard of '93 that some on here talk about like it was a great, harmless entertainment (and wish every year for a repeat of,) killed over 300 people. Think about that. Thousands of homes and business were destroyed. That's the equivalent of a major tornado outbreak. I don't wish for winter storms any more than I wish for severe spring storms.



Jumping to the cliches but everyone should be making preparations tonight and hope for best and prepare for the worst. The family have a plan surrounding what if and know where your emergency supplies are and how to get to them and just in general how to handle the situation after it passes if your community is hit.


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## Greene728 (Apr 4, 2017)

This doesn't sound good at all!
Eerily like April 27th 2011 with timing and morning and evening rounds. 

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=130687


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

Read it and weep. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10674708#post10674708

Tomorrow is not to be taken lightly. Monday was not to be taken lightly. If I had to give weather systems a 1 to 10 rating, Monday was a 4, Wednesday is a 7. 

I've used this phrase before during a super outbreak a few years ago, and though this system doesn't quite meet the criteria for a global event, on a Meso scale I will reiterate it here: Nearly everyone reading this will know someone effected by tomorrow's weather in a negative way. IF this system holds true to all indicators, though more of a isolated cell event, the damage will be severe and the potential for loss of life is high. 

Please monitor all local channels and weather radios and do not put yourself in a position where there is no cover for you to retreat to in a minutes notice. 

You have been warned.


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## smokey30725 (Apr 4, 2017)

Greene728 said:


> This doesn't sound good at all!
> Eerily like April 27th 2011 with timing and morning and evening rounds.
> 
> http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=130687



Dang. That doesn't sound good at all. I'll make sure my family keeps an eye on the weather radio while I'm at work. My shelter may have to get used tomorrow.


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## StriperrHunterr (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Read it and weep.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10674708#post10674708
> 
> ...



Yep, just poohed a little.


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## blondiega1 (Apr 4, 2017)

Watching The Spann live on FB right now. 
He's preaching to be aware and prepared and that this could be a rough ride.


.


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## Hooked On Quack (Apr 4, 2017)

Gotta go back to the mine tomorrow night, great just great.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Gotta go back to the mine tomorrow night, great just great.



Get there early and dig you a hole above the water line.


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## nickel back (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Read it and weep.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10674708#post10674708
> 
> ...



just great.....thanks for the heads up miggy


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

malak05 said:


> Here's your threat warning level update and actually useful advise



A helmet won't help you if your 5 miles away up in a tree with no skin left on your body.


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## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> A helmet won't help you if your 5 miles away up in a tree with no skin left on your body.



haha...While I do agree perhaps I'll add in go to a low lying room with no windows and then put on a helmet and hold your butt... Repeat do not go outside butt naked and wait for it to come Miggys scenario will most definitely be the outcome of such action


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

malak05 said:


> haha...While I do agree perhaps I'll add in go to a low lying room with no windows and then put on a helmet and hold your butt... Repeat do not go outside butt naked and wait for it to come Miggys scenario will most definitely be the outcome of such action



During the Oak Grove f-5 the lowest room in your house with a snowmobile outfit wouldn't have helped you. I saw three side concrete basements gutted. Not even a nail left. I saw the Forestry Services D-9 Dozer that was parked beside what used to be a fire station 100 yards across the highway and a slab where the firestation used to be. Three doors down from that I saw a 1700 sf brick ranch home picked up off of it's crawl space and turned 90° to the foundation and set down in the back yard and not a window cracked on it. The 4ft tall I-beams on the old Oak Grove high school gym were twisted up like pretzels and 150 yds back on the practice field. Thankfully this was a night time tornado and school was not in. 

Six sides concrete is the only sure bet, but if you don't have it, do some stretching to try and get your puckered lips as close to your hiney as you can and learn to pray at the same time. The force of nature is limitless when it comes to the destruction it can cause.

During the Tuscaloosa tornado which was an F-4, my brother in law, 30 minutes to the north found a mailbox on it's post in his front yard, with mail still in it. It was a Tuscaloosa address.


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## StriperrHunterr (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> During the Oak Grove f-5 the lowest room in your house with a snowmobile outfit wouldn't have helped you. I saw three side concrete basements gutted. Not even a nail left. I saw the Forestry Services D-9 Dozer that was parked beside what used to be a fire station 100 yards across the highway and a slab where the firestation used to be. Three doors down from that I saw a 1700 sf brick ranch home picked up off of it's crawl space and turned 90° to the foundation and set down in the back yard and not a window cracked on it. The 4ft tall I-beams on the old Oak Grove high school gym were twisted up like pretzels and 150 yds back on the practice field. Thankfully this was a night time tornado and school was not in.
> 
> Six sides concrete is the only sure bet, but if you don't have it, do some stretching to try and get your puckered lips as close to your hiney as you can and learn to pray at the same time. The force of nature is limitless when it comes to the destruction it can cause.
> 
> During the Tuscaloosa tornado which was an F-4, my brother in law, 30 minutes to the north found a mailbox on it's post in his front yard, with mail still in it. It was a Tuscaloosa address.



I heard of one storm, mid-west US I believe, where a tornado hit a train yard and obliterated a box car to where it was unrecognizable yet carried a carton of eggs from a store to a place a long way, many miles, without breaking a single one.


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## malak05 (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> During the Oak Grove f-5 the lowest room in your house with a snowmobile outfit wouldn't have helped you. I saw three side concrete basements gutted. Not even a nail left. I saw the Forestry Services D-9 Dozer that was parked beside what used to be a fire station 100 yards across the highway and a slab where the firestation used to be. Three doors down from that I saw a 1700 sf brick ranch home picked up off of it's crawl space and turned 90° to the foundation and set down in the back yard and not a window cracked on it. The 4ft tall I-beams on the old Oak Grove high school gym were twisted up like pretzels and 150 yds back on the practice field. Thankfully this was a night time tornado and school was not in.
> 
> Six sides concrete is the only sure bet, but if you don't have it, do some stretching to try and get your puckered lips as close to your hiney as you can and learn to pray at the same time. The force of nature is limitless when it comes to the destruction it can cause.
> 
> During the Tuscaloosa tornado which was an F-4, my brother in law, 30 minutes to the north found a mailbox on it's post in his front yard, with mail still in it. It was a Tuscaloosa address.



I agree that's the frustrating fact of storms all anyone can do is prepare the best for if your hit and hope if so that your prep enough and structure is save enough to get you thru as know not everyone has a storm shelter and or sub-basement to go too... That's the sad reality people in certain circumstances could've prepared to the best of what was available to them and still maybe not enough


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## Hooked On Quack (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Get there early and dig you a hole above the water line.





Gonna commandeer a D-8 and ride 'er out !!!  We're EMC's #1 customer, maybe they can find me !!


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

Hooked On Quack said:


> Gonna commandeer a D-8 and ride 'er out !!!  We're EMC's #1 customer, maybe they can find me !!



Wear your padded cheekun outfit. It will help with the bruising.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

See if this will help ya'll understand the SPC threat 
categories better.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

Reports from Monday


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

NAM 3km simrad estimated timeline.


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## smokey30725 (Apr 4, 2017)

Hamilton County schools are closing 2 hours early.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

I wonder if I could convince Helen Hunt to go nader chasin with me?


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## wildlands (Apr 4, 2017)

Miguel I appreciate you keeping us all posted. I am thinking you might want to increase your scale a little higher than a 7 maybe 8 or 9. Also hearing that we might even see some areas in the high threat range which  rarely happens. 

In all seriousness everyone please take pay special attention to the warnings tomorrow, this one is going to be ruff. I will be at the state operation center bright and early. If things fall out like I am hearing I might be there for some time. This is not the storm to go out and get a video of. If the storm is that powerful and interesting that you want to get a video you should actually be getting to shelter.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 4, 2017)

wildlands said:


> Miguel I appreciate you keeping us all posted. I am thinking you might want to increase your scale a little higher than a 7 maybe 8 or 9. Also hearing that we might even see some areas in the high threat range which  rarely happens.
> 
> In all seriousness everyone please take pay special attention to the warnings tomorrow, this one is going to be ruff. I will be at the state operation center bright and early. If things fall out like I am hearing I might be there for some time. This is not the storm to go out and get a video of. If the storm is that powerful and interesting that you want to get a video you should actually be getting to shelter.



It will have to get into the extreme range as in a Super outbreak for me to go above 7. As long as you keep a relative line of thought for 7 as it was to Monday as a 4 that should give you a good indication what we are in for. 

The nader season is young and daytime temps haven't parked in the mid 80's yet. There is still time....


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## wildlands (Apr 4, 2017)

True very True. No matter what we call it gonna be a ruff ride for some. Night all going to be an early morning and a very long day.


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## mark-7mag (Apr 4, 2017)

Looking forward to going to the gulf tomorrow. Not looking forward to driving through this. I'll be driving while my wife watches the radar. Guess we'll try to dodge the cells


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## lbzdually (Apr 4, 2017)

Murray County schools are called off for tomorrow.


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## DDD (Apr 4, 2017)

I keep getting asked when will the worst stuff come?  

If we knew that and where, we would be millionaires.  I personally think the wave that comes through tomorrow evening will be the strongest or has the potential to be the strongest.  However, from 8AM tomorrow until after midnight tomorrow night, the dynamics are going to be crazy and situations are going to change rapidly both accelerating and decelerating.  

This is not like snow, it's an X factor of where, how bad and how long.  Monday's system under performed, but what if tomorrow over performs?  It can happen.

The Mexican has laid it out every way possible but the bottom line is you HAVE to pay attention tomorrow. For example.....

A storm that is just "strong" can become severe in a matter of minutes.  Miggy and I constantly watch reflectivity radar to try and get a jump on a storm that is starting to rotate, but we can't type it fast enough and the the NWS can't get the warning out fast enough before the damage happens. 

I say that simply because people lose their lives on days like tomorrow.


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## blood on the ground (Apr 5, 2017)

Prepared for the storm


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## 3ringer (Apr 5, 2017)

I don't remember ever schools closing before a storm arrives . I know they did it for winter weather but not thunder storms and possible tornadoes. I am all for being on the safe side.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2017)

Almost 7 am-ish, and right on time the storms that are warned severe are moving into Ga. Carrollton, Cartersville, Canton will get a small taste of what's in store today. A very small taste compared to what it will be later on. 

Y'all enjoy your wet and windy drive to work. 

Oh, and any IMBY questions whether in the open or on PM will be ignored today. Nothing personal, but between work (paying those pesky bills) and keeping up with the plethora of storms there just isn't time for personal service. 

It is each and everyone of yours responsibility to be plugged into your local met and your weather radio. The only acceptable weather alert app I will condone use of is the "NOAA Weather Radar & Weather Alerts" app. HOWEVER, this is not to be used in place of getting a weather radio. It is a supplemental app option for when you are on the move. You MUST give it top layer priority permissions when you set it up or you may not get your alert warnings in a timely manner. 

If you are in front of a computer find an online radar site to watch so you can see what's heading your way. I won't have time to create gifs from my radar screen shot today, unless it is an apparent tornado on the ground, and even then it's questionable. 

Y'all stay safe today, there will be lots of yellow and red stuff on the radar today, and even more purple stuff than Monday, and possibly a fair amount of white stuff on radar (that is bad, worse than purple)


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## malak05 (Apr 5, 2017)

Literally just got up to head to work first thing in hear is a Crack of Thunder that shakes house


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2017)

Shallow couplet moving out of Wedowee AL towards Newnan, if it holds it will approach Fayetteville & McDonough. May be too shallow for a tornado, but the rotation is very evident on radar.

If you have your NWS Skywarn Spotter Certs or are a Spotter Network Cert Spotter make sure and check your Radarscope Pro apps to make sure your ID is on, your GPS location is reporting and your Call Sign is showing so you can interact with the app and NWS immediately upon finding re-portable conditions. 

This is not an official activation by NWS PTC, but then, I can't remember them doing that recently NWS BMX is better about those things.


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## StriperrHunterr (Apr 5, 2017)

It might be time to move this into a new thread to keep updates all in the same location.

Everyone stay safe today and good luck.


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## mguthrie (Apr 5, 2017)

A plethora of severe t-storm warnings now and a tornado warning SEof Atlanta


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## DDD (Apr 5, 2017)

Folks, these storms are moving so fast you have to know who is to the West of you.  If someone West or South West of you gets warned, you need to be ready to take cover.  These suckers are cruising.


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## malak05 (Apr 5, 2017)

Tornado warned storm just past Lagrange believe same one migs mentioned


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## mguthrie (Apr 5, 2017)

DDD said:


> Folks, these storms are moving so fast you have to know who is to the West of you.  If someone West or South West of you gets warned, you need to be ready to take cover.  These suckers are cruising.



That's what I'm watching. Storms are south and west of Conyers area headed this way. I hope that tornado moves north of me. It's rolling across heavily populated areas now


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> That's what I'm watching. Storms are south and west of Conyers area headed this way. I hope that tornado moves north of me. It's rolling across heavily populated areas now



It is a warned cell, not a ground confirmed tornado, yet. 
Potential is there but much more likely later on today with worsening conditions.

This is the same cell I posted about coming out of Wedowee AL. 

If y'all don't know where a location is when I post about it, you'd best get a map and figure it out. You will have very little time to prepare if you haven't done it by now. 

I posted as strong a warning as I know how yesterday as to what this system was capable of. I can't say it any stronger.


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## Miguel Cervantes (Apr 5, 2017)

Mod's please lock this one down, the new thread is up.


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## DDD (Apr 5, 2017)

mguthrie said:


> That's what I'm watching. Storms are south and west of Conyers area headed this way. I hope that tornado moves north of me. It's rolling across heavily populated areas now



It's lost some of it's punch, have to keep watching it though.


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## NCHillbilly (Apr 5, 2017)

Head to the new one.


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