# Winter Weather Thread V



## DDD

So let's start fresh.  

Let's also keep this thread on topic as much as possible. 

Drama makes for a lot of work for mods. 

Again I will post after the 00Z GFS.  Today's EURO pulled the snow totals north but not going to jump on just one model run.  As the Mesican has pointed out, it's a long way off.  At this point I always say watch the trends.  No, one model run is not a trend.  I don't post after every run of the GFS.  Don't freak out over one model run or even two in the LONG range stuff.


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## smokey30725

Good to see you back! Seems like Malak and you and the Mexican might turn out to be the winter weather super team after all!


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## DEERFU

Welcome back DDD! I'll check in before I hit the sack to catch the latest


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## Rockdale Buck

Appreciate the hard work y'all put in DDD and MC. Very much appreciated! Hope we can reel in a big one!


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## snarlinbear

If it's not too much to ask can ya tell us the real scoop for the next couple of days?


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## DDD

snarlinbear said:


> If it's not too much to ask can ya tell us the real scoop for the next couple of days?



Sure... let me have a look at the short range models and I will report back.  Give me 10 minutes.


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## tcward

Yes DDD is back!


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## snarlinbear

Glad your back ... like Moses off the mountain!


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## DDD

snarlinbear said:


> If it's not too much to ask can ya tell us the real scoop for the next couple of days?



There is so little water to play with.  Outside of the mountains people will be lucky to see flurries.  I started to post a GFS precipitable water map but decided not to.  It's sorta hard to read.  None the less, it could still over perform but I really think this is a non-event at this point unless you are in the mountains.


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## snarlinbear

Thanks sincerely.  I'm on the south side of the hills at the moment and appreciate the intel.


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## DDD

snarlinbear said:


> Thanks sincerely.  I'm on the south side of the hills at the moment and appreciate the intel.



Atmosphere is going to be "squeezing" out EVERY drop of moisture it can find.  So people will see flurries... if you have been living right, stars align and Carolina wins... you MIGHT get a light quick snow shower.


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## Buckfever 2

Good to have you back 3D!..... what does the 16th and 17th look like? What are the trends?


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## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Atmosphere is going to be "squeezing" out EVERY drop of moisture it can find.  So people will see flurries... if you have been living right, stars align and Carolina wins... you MIGHT get a light quick snow shower.


Well there went that chance!!


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## DDD

Buckfever 2 said:


> Good to have you back 3D!..... what does the 16th and 17th look like? What are the trends?



Waiting to see the latest run of the GFS here shortly.

Wish I could stay up for the EURO but I cannot.  

EURO trended north but still dropped snow on North Atlanta and northward.


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## DDD

Operational GFS sees no winter storm on the horizon.  GFS still brings the cold in here something fierce Thursday and then again on Sunday.  Just not any moisture to work with.

We will see what the EURO says.

Tonight's EURO will be interesting for sure.


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## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> Operational GFS sees no winter storm on the horizon.  GFS still brings the cold in here something fierce Thursday and then again on Sunday.  Just not any moisture to work with.
> 
> We will see what the EURO says.
> 
> Tonight's EURO will be interesting for sure.



Thanks for the updates brother


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## nickel back

how cold is it going to get and how long does it hang around?


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## bigelow

Thank you I almost couldn't sleep


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## mtr3333

I hope no one panics and I have to wash my truck again


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## GA DAWG

Any of that snow on radar hitting the ground in west Ga?


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## fish hawk

GA DAWG said:


> Any of that snow on radar hitting the ground in west Ga?



It's bright and sunny in west Georgia


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## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> how cold is it going to get and how long does it hang around?



Here's a link to Pivotalweather.com animate loop for the 2m agl temps. This is from todays 00z GFS run. 

In general we will be in a pattern of low 30's to low 20's depending on what day it is over the next two weeks. Daytime temps will range from not warming up much to a day or two in the low 50's. 

Check it out. It's a good map. 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=sfct&rh=2016020800&fh=loop&r=se&dpdt=


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## GA DAWG

fish hawk said:


> It's bright and sunny in west Georgia



Northwest Ga.


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## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's a link to Pivotalweather.com animate loop for the 2m agl temps. This is from todays 00z GFS run.
> 
> In general we will be in a pattern of low 30's to low 20's depending on what day it is over the next two weeks. Daytime temps will range from not warming up much to a day or two in the low 50's.
> 
> Check it out. It's a good map.
> 
> http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=sfct&rh=2016020800&fh=loop&r=se&dpdt=




Thanks.

not going to get as cold as I thought it was, thought we was going to see some teen temps down in middle Ga.


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## tr21

it just started snowing here in the big city of suches !


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## jbird1

tr21 said:


> it just started snowing here in the big city of suches !



Sweet!...that's the rooftop of Ga isn't it?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Snowing on Brasstown Bald. Go full screen on the webcam and you can see it. 

http://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/conf/home/?cid=fsm9_029106&width=full


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## RinggoldGa

DDD, is the 00z Euro as depressing as I thought it was?  The trend over the past few runs doesn't seem as favorable.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Just done talkin with DDD on the phone about a model we rarely look at. The RGEM. The discussion has been the hit and miss nature of clippers and their banding or training snow effects. Currently, and in the forecast for today and tomorrow the air is extremely dry in all layers, so as moisture comes in from west to east it drys out and a lot of the snow rarely hits the ground. Then we have the contentious nature of timing and temperatures. 

I'm going to post the original maps I saw when I found this band (pivotalweather.com) of qpf which would translate from a dusting to a couple of inches if it happens, and don't get stuck on the location of this band on the map. It could happen about anywhere in Ga as this stuff moves through overnight. 

Next will be a verification of the RGEM from another site (tropicaltidbits.com) and finally a copy of the map just posted by Brad Nitz with WSB TV 2 on Twitter. 

Just one the crazy nature of winter weather. Nothing set in stone, but thought some of y'all would like to see it. Keeping the hopes alive.


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## RinggoldGa

I have little doubt someone in North Ga will end up with a decent snow.  I have great doubt it will occur her in NW Ga where I live.  If I had to bet, those bands will pass just to my north and just to my south with my backyard zip code parting the snow like Moses in the Red Sea.


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## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> I have little doubt someone in North Ga will end up with a decent snow.  I have great doubt it will occur her in NW Ga where I live If I had to bet, those bands will pass just to my north, and just to my south with my backyard zip code parting the snow like Moses in the Red Sea.



You and me both, brother. I'm convinced there is a secret army of yankee transplants that go out whenever snow is on the horizon and point hair dryers up in the air to ward it off.


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## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> I have little doubt someone in North Ga will end up with a decent snow.  I have great doubt it will occur her in NW Ga where I live If I had to bet, those bands will pass just to my north, and just to my south with my backyard zip code parting the snow like Moses in the Red Sea.





smokey30725 said:


> You and me both, brother. I'm convinced there is a secret army of yankee transplants that go out whenever snow is on the horizon and point hair dryers up in the air to ward it off.



If you want to practice Murphy's Law then you must go out and buy a sled or toboggan, or some other snow toy device. This will guarantee you won't see even a flake.


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## elandil

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you want to practice Murphy's Law then you must go out and buy a sled or toboggan, or some other snow toy device. This will guarantee you won't see even a flake.



So if I go buy pool toys and swim trunks, will this call in the blizzard? Cuz I'd make the sacrifice...


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## StriperrHunterr

I can't seem to find WWIV, so I don't know if this has been covered, but once this passes are we done with chances for precip for a while? Nothing is showing on my other sources, except for the temp drops and I remember there being something tossed about for the 13/14 timeframe in the other thread.


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## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I can't seem to find WWIV, so I don't know if this has been covered, but once this passes are we done with chances for precip for a while? Nothing is showing on my other sources, except for the temp drops and I remember there being something tossed about for the 13/14 timeframe in the other thread.



The trend for the later event is dryer for now, but there's still time and it's too far out to nail it down yet.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Nothings going to change, for tonight, tomorrow or even for the later event in the next few hours. So if y'all can be patient DDD will be back this afternoon and tell you all you want to know, and some you didn't.


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## DDD

I can report that it's 41 in Nashville and snowing. 

I have to actually go work at a customer's facility.  I know you guys don't think I ever work, but I will update tonight.


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## Brian Groce

elandil said:


> So if I go buy pool toys and swim trunks, will this call in the blizzard? Cuz I'd make the sacrifice...



Give it a try.


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## jbird1

The brine trucks were out rolling/spraying up 400 a little bit ago.  They must think something may be afoot. It's 57 and partly sunny at the moment in N Forsyth.


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## malak05

Well I'm just excitied for the little bit of snow gonna see thru tomorrow and maybe falling under a band of good snowfall for a little bit of snow... but holy gosh the Euro run that just came out for 15th and 16th is a bomb


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## Wade Chandler

Best snowfall map I've seen in years for all of North GA on the most recent Euro run.  We would be fortunate to get half of that.


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## elandil

malak05 said:


> but holy gosh the Euro run that just came out for 15th and 16th is a bomb



good bomb, or bad bomb.....


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## malak05

elandil said:


> good bomb, or bad bomb.....



see post above yours... says it all


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## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Well I'm just excitied for the little bit of snow gonna see thru tomorrow and maybe falling under a band of good snowfall for a little bit of snow... but holy gosh the Euro run that just came out for 15th and 16th is a bomb



Yes it is, a bluebird clear sky high pressure bomb  Not that it won't change, but dear lord man!!!

Again, don't post an opinion without citing or linking your source or posting a map. 

Example. The Euro that just came out, otherwise known as the 12z run. This particular map is valid 12z (7am) Monday Feb. 15th.


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## DDD

12Z EURO clown map is something epic.   I am not saying this is going to happen, what I am saying is the players will be PERFECT if the EURO is correct.  The GFS is on a completely different island.

I have put a quick map together since I cannot post EURO maps on the forum unless it ends up on the internet with permission.

This would start Monday evening and snow for 1.5 days. 

If we can get inside of 5 days with this solution on the EURO I will become like a school girl.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Yes it is, a bluebird clear sky high pressure bomb  Not that it won't change, but dear lord man!!!
> 
> Again, don't post an opinion without citing or linking your source or posting a map.
> 
> Example. The Euro that just came out, otherwise known as the 12z run. This particular map is valid 12z (7am) Monday Feb. 15th.



To go with that, the GFS for same period has the HPS more over the Atlantic but still effecting us pretty good. Any QPF that would contribute is still back to our NW.


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## malak05

What Triple D posted


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## hmaddox

DDD said:


> 12Z EURO clown map is something epic.   I am not saying this is going to happen, what I am saying is the players will be PERFECT if the EURO is correct.  The GFS is on a completely different island.
> 
> I have put a quick map together since I cannot post EURO maps on the forum unless it ends up on the internet with permission.
> 
> This would start Monday evening and snow for 1.5 days.
> 
> If we can get inside of 5 days with this solution on the EURO I will become like a school girl.



I am speechless - and so hopeful.  So glad you all are keeping us posted - DDD great to see you bk!


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## jbird1

^^^
My goodness what a storm that would be.

And just like that, the temp just dropped 5 degrees and the wind is howling right now.


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## Miguel Cervantes

And there you have constructive disagreement with maps to verify. Well sort of.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> And there you have constructive disagreement with maps to verify. Well sort of.



OK, checking my sources, because I can post their maps.  and College of DuPage. Two sources can't be wrong, one would think. The pretty colors mean cold, yes, but that is clearly a high pressure system.


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## DDD

The surface temps go below freezing at hour 162 and don't come back above freezing until hour 198.  What a powerful punch!


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## malak05

Two Comparisons for the 12z runs for the Euro and GFS... essentially the 12z GFS had similar precp. returns driving thru for the SE but temps are off as cold is just not placed in the same place as Euro...


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## malak05

I'll take it as a positive that they do have similarities in the models on weather systems go


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> The surface temps go below freezing at hour 162 and don't come back above freezing until hour 198.  What a powerful punch!



Got to have moisture though, and looking at this UQAM (see map) product, which has a strong LPS in a totally different location than Weatherbells (sorry no map due to copyright agreements) This tells me we have 5 different interpretations of the same run of the same product that are nothing alike, thus causing a massive discrepancy and me to blow the foul whistle and deem the 12z Euro invalid.

Plus, we are 7 days away from the event and more than a couple away from needing congruency in models to verify what might happen. Hysteria at American Wx and Talk Weather doesn't make it a definite shot. It makes it hysteria.


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## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Two Comparisons for the 12z runs for the Euro and GFS... essentially the 12z GFS had similar precp. returns driving thru for the SE but temps are off as cold is just not placed in the same place as Euro...



They are just alike but different. Actually, both of your maps are GFS, not two comparisons of the Euro and GFS.


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## jbird1

I don't know if I've ever seen this much star power posting at the same time....this can only benefit the thread followers.  Bread and circuses!!


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## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> They are just alike but different. Actually, both of your maps are GFS, not two comparisons of the Euro and GFS.



It was in reference to your Euro Map above same timeline on 850 temps


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## Trigabby

I'm just going to leave this here for later use..      Maybe about 4 days from now..


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## DDD

Here is the Weather Underground map for the 12Z EURO.

Snow bomb for sure.


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## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> It was in reference to your Euro Map above same timeline on 850 temps



OK, I'll buy that. But just like my argument stands in other locations, everyone must realize that High Pressure dominates. Always has, always will, and it would take a LPS in the gulf of hurricane proportions to pull off what weatherbell is proposing, and American Wx and Talk Wx are all hysterical about. 

I'm a Severe weather guy. We look for verification of an event, not hysteria because we might see a flake or two. This winter wx hysteria in the talk media sites is insane, and dang near 3rd gradish. At the very least it is Weather Nerdism at it highest giddy level. 

Verification and congruency among products is tantamount to hysteria any day. So, looking at the big picture with that in mind, no, my 850 Euro map (none of them) verify with the lagging GFS precip map of the same time period. All they prove is there is moisture moving in after the cold moves out. The magic ingredient we look for in souping up the atmosphere for QPF is dewpoint, and it just isn't there for a parallel comparison. 

I'm still calling foul on this freak 12z Euro run at Weatherbell. That seems to be the only place it exists, which is a clue when dynamic proof is sought.

If future Euro map runs are consistent and various sites fall in line then I'm on board, but right now, this isn't the case.


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## malak05

DDD said:


> Here is the Weather Underground map for the 12Z EURO.
> 
> Snow bomb for sure.



This so bright with Purple I need to look at it with shades...haha


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## jbird1

I'll take the long term cold air mass in force as my first player to have on the field any day.  That way we avoid the cold chasing moisture scenario DDD always talks about.


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## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> OK, I'll buy that. But just like my argument stands in other locations, everyone must realize that High Pressure dominates. Always has, always will, and it would take a LPS in the gulf of hurricane proportions to pull off what weatherbell is proposing, and American Wx and Talk Wx are all hysterical about.
> 
> I'm a Severe weather guy. We look for verification of an event, not hysteria because we might see a flake or two. This winter wx hysteria in the talk media sites is insane, and dang near 3rd gradish. At the very least it is Weather Nerdism at it highest giddy level.
> 
> Verification and congruency among products is tantamount to hysteria any day. So, looking at the big picture with that in mind, no, my 850 Euro map (none of them) verify with the lagging GFS precip map of the same time period. All they prove is there is moisture moving in after the cold moves out. The magic ingredient we look for in souping up the atmosphere for QPF is dewpoint, and it just isn't there for a parallel comparison.
> 
> I'm still calling foul on this freak 12z Euro run at Weatherbell. That seems to be the only place it exists, which is a clue when dynamic proof is sought.
> 
> If future Euro map runs are consistent and various sites fall in line then I'm on board, but right now, this isn't the case.


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## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> I'll take the long term cold air mass in force as my first player to have on the field any day.  That way we avoid the cold chasing moisture scenario DDD always talks about.



Cold being in place is always a plus when moisture arrives, if the cold can remain. Typically gulf moisture brings gulf warmth. However this is a surface high so there is a chance it could verify in the long run. 

Another thing to consider is this. The world trending. For several runs the Euro was trending dryer, now out of the blue there is a run that is 180° out of alignment with previous runs (the trend) Someone once said, one run does not make a trend, and trends are important to verify.


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## nickel back

Just to far out, when its about 2days out and DDD is still talking about a good snow for middle GA and up I will be


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD just sent me a hilarious text. 

News headlines for tomorrow: "Weather Weenies commit mass suicide by jumping off of bridge because the 00z Euro did away with all of their snow!"

Now that was funny, I don't care who you are


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## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Cold being in place is always a plus when moisture arrives, if the cold can remain. Typically gulf moisture brings gulf warmth. However this is a surface high so there is a chance it could verify in the long run.
> 
> Another thing to consider is this. The world trending. For several runs the Euro was trending dryer, now out of the blue there is a run that is 180° out of alignment with previous runs (the trend) Someone once said, one run does not make a trend, and trends are important to verify.



I'm very prepared for the bucket of cold water that is probably becoming in the next run.


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## rospaw

Y'all three need to get a ROOM &#55357;&#56845;
Great info and all those PRETTY maps but but but WHAT ALL DOES IT MEAN FOR US SNOW FREAKS? Yes, no, maybe,it could, it couldn't, it should...... You know where i'm going with this, don't you? Do we need to have a pole thread for y'all? ☃


Edit : Room might need to be bigger than for just three


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## Miguel Cervantes

rospaw said:


> Y'all three need to get a ROOM ?
> Great info and all those PRETTY maps but but but WHAT ALL DOES IT MEAN FOR US SNOW FREAKS? Yes, no, maybe,it could, it couldn't, it should...... You know where i'm going with this, don't you? Do we need to have a pole thread for y'all? ☃



It means absolutely nothing. The 15th is too many days away for an absolute forecast. It is basically weather websites full of nerds with tape on their glasses and pocket protectors jumping up and down like school girls over one model run that is isolated from the rest.


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## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It means absolutely nothing. The 15th is too many days away for an absolute forecast. It is basically weather websites full of nerds with tape on their glasses and pocket protectors jumping up and down like school girls over one model run that is isolated from the rest.



Are you saying that this will be DDD the closer we get to the 15th?


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## rospaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It means absolutely nothing. The 15th is too many days away for an absolute forecast. It is basically weather websites full of nerds with tape on their glasses and pocket protectors jumping up and down like school girls over one model run that is isolated from the rest.



Mex I have missed you the last few years on the winter weather watch. Good to see you back home. DDD has been fantastic as always but I do miss y'alls back and forth from years back. Get a little boring with just DDD telling us it's going to snow on Thursday a week at 8pm and it does! I like when you would come in and say no no no 830pm! 
All kidding aside for the last 8 years or so y'alls weather input/forecasting has been unbelievable !!!! And I and I'm sure many others really do thank you all for doing this for us. Many thanks!!!


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## malak05

On a side note this is FFC afternoom weather brief for tonight and tomorrow system... good to read up on
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/Briefings/20160208_2pm_winterwxBriefing.pdf


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## snarlinbear

Hey Buddy I agree, and am as confused as a blind pig searching for eggs at a golf driving range.


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## dsceviour

12z euro is 1 out of 52 ensembles, and like stated above the HPS is a killer!


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## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> DDD just sent me a hilarious text.
> 
> News headlines for tomorrow: "Weather Weenies commit mass suicide by jumping off of bridge because the 00z Euro did away with all of their snow!"
> 
> Now that was funny, I don't care who you are



Pics????????


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## dsceviour

Is it true the HPS is actually not a bad thing since it doesn't squash it to Cuba? A very reliable source told me this HPS is actually good


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## malak05

Tomorrow/Wednesday
18z RGEM Acculmated QPF map at Wednesaday 9am

Most of the high end bands of higher QPF totals are between noon tomorrow and 3AM Wednesday. This is a banding example that the FFC mentioned and many models indicate and no exact science to know exactly where it will these bands will eventually develop. The people under them could see better results while others 20 miles away have less success.


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## Miguel Cervantes

rospaw said:


> Mex I have missed you the last few years on the winter weather watch. Good to see you back home. DDD has been fantastic as always but I do miss y'alls back and forth from years back. Get a little boring with just DDD telling us it's going to snow on Thursday a week at 8pm and it does! I like when you would come in and say no no no 830pm!
> All kidding aside for the last 8 years or so y'alls weather input/forecasting has been unbelievable !!!! And I and I'm sure many others really do thank you all for doing this for us. Many thanks!!!



PBradley sends me a box of Crak-a-Jacks every Christmas as a thank you. He even glues Al Gores picture to it every time. I think it's a Global / Climate Warming swat at me or something, just don't know. Never have figured those Libertarians out. 

But in short, thank you sir.


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## mark-7mag

Wx-south just posted this

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/?fref=nf


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## fatboy84

I went out and urinated on my weather rock (ok, just a rock in the back yard).  It got wet and my bunyons hurt.   last time this happened we got snowed in.   Better go buy milk and bread.


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## jbird1

mark-7mag said:


> Wx-south just posted this
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/?fref=nf



I have been calling for just such an "ARCTIC INVASION" to set the table for a storm around here....might help kill a few bugs as well


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## Miguel Cervantes

fatboy84 said:


> I went out and urinated on my weather rock (ok, just a rock in the back yard).  It got wet and my bunyons hurt.   last time this happened we got snowed in.   Better go buy milk and bread.



That would be forecasting under false pretenses....


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## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> That would be forecasting under false pretenses....



peetenses.


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## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> peetenses.




You're right, my bad.


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## mrs. hornet22

gobbleinwoods said:


> peetenses.


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## Miguel Cervantes

A little screen shot off of my GR rad. This same wave dropped about 1/2" around Nashville. Though temps ahead of it are in the mid 40's temps under the precip are dropping 7 to 8 degrees in short order. 

Anybody up in NW GA that can lay ground truth to this precip as it moves into the state?

View attachment 866197


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## ryork

Spitting some flakes here in Bremen now.


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## whitetaco02

Those getting snow post up some pics.


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## smokey30725

Barely spitting snow here in Flintstone.


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## PappyHoel

Looks to be hitting a dry line.


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## toyota4x4h

Y'all should see chatsworth! Wind blowing about 30 mph and snowing like a blizzard at my house!


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## DDD

I have about an inch of snow in Nashville.


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## elandil

DDD said:


> I have about an inch of snow in Nashville.



Pics or its not happening....


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## northgeorgiasportsman

I saw it snow hard this afternoon at about 5:30 and the thermometer showed 43.  I can't recall if I've seen it snowing much warmer than that.


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## DDD

dsceviour said:


> 12z euro is 1 out of 52 ensembles, and like stated above the HPS is a killer!



Dude, I am going to say this one time.  

You need to quit regurgitating the stuff you read on other sites and posting it here.  It's gotten really old.  You are like a parrot.  It's why I don't answer you on Twitter.


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## RinggoldGa

Had howling winds and rain mixed with snow turning to all dry snow for about 30 mins in Ringgold.  Messican, 'twas me that tweeted you the pic. No accumulation.


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## DDD

Picture out my window at my hotel.  You can see the snow in the light.

I just took this.


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## GA DAWG

No snow here yet. No nothing.


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## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> No snow here yet. No nothing.



The radar seems to indicate that it's drying up before it gets to us.


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## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> The radar seems to indicate that it's drying up before it gets to us.


My phone says. Snow starting here in 30 min.


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## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> The radar seems to indicate that it's drying up before it gets to us.



The air above you is very dry.. Once the column saturates it will snow.  It's why I hate clippers.


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## Paymaster

Snowing here in Ephesus!!!!


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## rospaw

It's snowing in ellijay! Light but still snowing.  

bear, you in  hhollow?


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## Bama1787

light snow shower in south Paulding


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## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Dude, I am going to say this one time.
> 
> You need to quit regurgitating the stuff you read on other sites and posting it here.  It's gotten really old.  You are like a parrot.  It's why I don't answer you on Twitter.



I repeatedly warned him about plagiarizing other peoples work. For others on here that like to do the same, just to sound like they know what they're talking about; We are all over the place when it comes to weather, we see it, we know when your merely copy and pasting or stealing someone's statement. 

Here's where this one came from. You can't just quote without credit, the founder of one of the largest weather analytics sites on the interweb and think you can get away with it. 

Show your work, links, props to who said it, or maps, otherwise you'll learn not to like it here. 

This is the screen shot of Ryan's statement from Twitter. Sound familiar?


----------



## snarlinbear

rospaw said:


> It's snowing in ellijay! Light but still snowing.
> 
> bear, you in  hhollow?



No I wish I was.  I imagine we would be getting some there.  Looks like we may get a little in a few minutes according to radar.


----------



## GA DAWG

Snowing now here.


----------



## parisinthe20s

No snow in Cherokee co unfortunately. Not north enough I suppose.too bad!


----------



## gunnurse

*School Delay*

Catoosa County NW Ga now on 2 hour delay 2/9/16.


----------



## jf950y

Will the moisture go farther S/E once the air gets saturated. Or is it probably going to keep drying up?


----------



## malak05

jf950y said:


> Will the moisture go farther S/E once the air gets saturated. Or is it probably going to keep drying up?



This Clipper event is going as it should as Triple D said really dry air in place eventually the moisture feeding in from NW will do its job to atmosphere and snow will start reaching grounds but the bulk of this event is tomorrow and into the afternoon as the the energy coming down the trough basically sends waves of  light moisture into the area


----------



## DDD

Pouring snow here up stream from Georgia.  I am in Mnt. Juliet, TN and it's snowing GOOD.  Makes me go to my happy place.


----------



## WoodsmanEd

DDD said:


> Pouring snow here up stream from Georgia.  I am in Mnt. Juliet, TN and it's snowing GOOD.  Makes me go to my happy place.



When you are done at work and you are ready to head home please allow it to follow you home and share it so we all can go to our happy places as well.


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> Pouring snow here up stream from Georgia.  I am in Mnt. Juliet, TN and it's snowing GOOD.  Makes me go to my happy place.



 Bring us back a snowball from your happy place


----------



## DDD

I will say this... if this little area right here comes to pass... it could pile up 5-7" in a very small zone.  

This event is going to go and go and go through tomorrow.  It's going to be sporadic in coverage but someone may luck up and win the snow lottery.


----------



## Sweetwater

DDD said:


> I will say this... if this little area right here comes to pass... it could pile up 5-7" in a very small zone.
> 
> This event is going to go and go and go through tomorrow.  It's going to be sporadic in coverage but someone may luck up and win the snow lottery.


----------



## Sweetwater

DDD said:


> Dude, I am going to say this one time.
> 
> You need to quit regurgitating the stuff you read on other sites and posting it here.  It's gotten really old.  You are like a parrot.  It's why I don't answer you on Twitter.



Thats just wrong. Thats like someone building a house yet you take credit for it.
Not you DDD.
See tagline.


----------



## blood on the ground

Bring on the blizzard


----------



## TBean95

*Fingers Crossed!*



DDD said:


> I will say this... if this little area right here comes to pass... it could pile up 5-7" in a very small zone.
> 
> This event is going to go and go and go through tomorrow.  It's going to be sporadic in coverage but someone may luck up and win the snow lottery.



Please, please, please!  This is really close to IMBY!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

TBean95 said:


> Please, please, please!  This is really close to IMBY!


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


>



They be representin


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> They be representin



Back in the day we called it snipe huntin. Lots of em in here holdin a bag and waitin


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Back in the day we called it snipe huntin. Lots of em in here holdin a bag and waitin



No kidding!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> No kidding!


Is your's burlap with a big hole on each end?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Yea it is like closing your eyes and throwing a dart at a map of Georgia with this storm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Have I mentioned trends lately? Below you will see the 00z Euro, not an outlier map, that is 100% consistent with all Euro runs over the last few days. That massive cold high pressure continues to slowly slide east with each run and any "would be" low pressure contributors for a shot at moisture are staying nailed to the west and far northwest in a very weak, dry non-event fashion for the 15th. So contrary to yesterday afternoons weather weenie mass seizure episode I'm sticking with the trend of cold clear bluebird skies for the 15th, untill the trend changes, and thus far there are no indicators of that. 

I did sharpen a stick overnight to poke any weenie that thinks they can fabricate a 00z euro / gfs precip parallel todsy though. It's even more of a reach now than it already was yesterday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

JonathanG2013 said:


> Yea it is like closing your eyes and throwing a dart at a map of Georgia with this storm.


This isnt a storm. This is a marginal event at best. Its more like having an 8.5 x 11 map of ga taped to a wall in a 10x10 room. Then being blind folded and spun around five times then throwing the dart.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This isnt a storm. This is a marginal event at best. Its more like having an 8.5 x 11 map of ga taped to a wall in a 10x10 room. Then being blind folded and spun around five times then throwing the dart.



So there is a chance?


----------



## GA DAWG

Mini snow flake blizzard in the 30028.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have I mentioned trends lately? Below you will see the 00z Euro, not an outlier map, that is 100% consistent with all Euro runs over the last few days. That massive cold high pressure continues to slowly slide east with each run and any "would be" low pressure contributors for a shot at moisture are staying nailed to the west and far northwest in a very weak, dry non-event fashion for the 15th. So contrary to yesterday afternoons weather weenie mass seizure episode I'm sticking with the trend of cold clear bluebird skies for the 15th, untill the trend changes, and thus far there are no indicators of that.
> 
> I did sharpen a stick overnight to poke any weenie that thinks they can fabricate a 00z euro / gfs precip parallel todsy though. It's even more of a reach now than it already was yesterday.



To further this early prognosis, if you will notice the area over the midwest that looks like it could be a low, or potential for a cutoff low, but is just too weak. Well a couple of comparative analogues actually go there. (see below) The problem is, between a 1020 rim of high pressure a 1010 center of low pressure there just aren't enough differential dynamics to support any energy that would make a "blizzard". Plus the one thing to keep in mind is this. This is a surface high pressure system. Lots of cold air at 2m agl, and when you bring in warmer overriding moisture, even IF it were a potential for this setup, you don't get a blizzard, you get the mother of all ice storms. 

So you see, there's a lot wrong with the outliers in this setup and the trend will bear out over the next day or two. Not that I haven't been wrong before, but analyzing this the same way I would approaching severe weather (it's all dynamics) there just isn't anything there, yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> So there is a chance?


Not with Lauren Holly  


GA DAWG said:


> Mini snow flake blizzard in the 30028.



Did it put your good eye out?


----------



## Priest

Small light snow just started in canton


----------



## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have I mentioned trends lately? Below you will see the 00z Euro, not an outlier map, that is 100% consistent with all Euro runs over the last few days. That massive cold high pressure continues to slowly slide east with each run and any "would be" low pressure contributors for a shot at moisture are staying nailed to the west and far northwest in a very weak, dry non-event fashion for the 15th. So contrary to yesterday afternoons weather weenie mass seizure episode I'm sticking with the trend of cold clear bluebird skies for the 15th, untill the trend changes, and thus far there are no indicators of that.
> 
> I did sharpen a stick overnight to poke any weenie that thinks they can fabricate a 00z euro / gfs precip parallel todsy though. It's even more of a reach now than it already was yesterday.


Fabricate that's funny


----------



## JonathanG2013

Miguel Cervantes said:


> This isnt a storm. This is a marginal event at best. Its more like having an 8.5 x 11 map of ga taped to a wall in a 10x10 room. Then being blind folded and spun around five times then throwing the dart.



True


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

malak05 said:


> Fabricate that's funny


----------



## 3ringer

Flurries in locust grove ,ga.


----------



## rospaw

Schools closed is Gilmer / Ellijay ..... Not sure why, ground is clear, nothing flying. Is something coming our way?

Again Mig LOVE those pretty maps. My 12yr old daughter says you do i fine job! She is working on one for you now!


----------



## malak05

Well interesting tidbits from the some of the 6z GFS, RGEM, & NAM 4k for today thru tomorrow . All showtime banding effects streaking heavier totals in the same general areas. RGEM seems a little bullish on totals but if that bares watching cause that stretches down to north metro  with impact full #s


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

rospaw said:


> Schools closed is Gilmer / Ellijay ..... Not sure why, ground is clear, nothing flying. Is something coming our way?



Precautionary for the safety of school bus travel. It always seems over blown and unnecessary, but let a school bus loaded with kids slide off a steep embankment up that way due to black ice and see who starts screaming. 

In other words, better safe than sorry.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Squeezing out a few flakes IMBY.   Snow flakes that is not the normal morning diner visitors.  Scratch the word normal and let's go with daily.


----------



## PappyHoel

Was snowing good in dawsonville when I left this morning @530am.  Nothing was sticking


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gobbleinwoods said:


> Squeezing out a few flakes IMBY.   Snow flakes that is not the normal morning diner visitors.  Scratch the word normal and let's go with daily.



Good job. You should change your screen name to Short Stop. You covered the bases well on that one.


----------



## rospaw

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Precautionary for the safety of school bus travel. It always seems over blown and unnecessary, but let a school bus loaded with kids slide off a steep embankment up that way due to black ice and see who starts screaming.
> 
> In other words, better safe than sorry.



Hi, this is the daughter. Is it going to snow very deep at my house? Thank you, K


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD, what does the WX South Guru say about PWAT and Dewpoint in such clipper events as this. I know that they are the primary driving factors in determining convective potential, as well as qpf in severe weather. 

Looking at the PWAT and especially the 2m to 700mb agl dewpoint for todays clipper banding the numbers just aren't there. This entire scenario seems to be built off of humidity aloft based qpf, which is a huge no no in STS forecasting. 

If the dewpoint #'s are 20 to 30° lower at the surface that indicates high rates of evap before hitting the ground. Higher humidity aloft could create a wetter product falling, but the dewpoints, again, just aren't there. 

Expound on this mystical phenomena for us please.


----------



## smokey30725

Still coming down good in Flintstone but not sticking on roads.


----------



## jbird1

Clipper-mania!!  It was snowing when I crashed last night and still going this A.M.  The cracks in between the roof shingles are filled!!


----------



## Goddard

Some flurries flying in Canton.   Not sticking, but has the kids super excited.


----------



## GA DAWG

We have accumulation on the tin roof tops


----------



## RinggoldGa

Currently light dusting on grassy areas, decks, cars in Ringgold.  Roads are fine.  Hearing Lookout Mtn Ga/TN has about an inch.  

Light snow of medium sized flakes continues to fall.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> We have accumulation on the tin roof tops



Heck, if it keeps up like this for 4 or 5 days we may get to make a snowball.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miggy, appears that GFS has gotten behind the EURO that SOMETHING may happen early next week.  This map includes  what little snow accumulates from this clipper system.


----------



## smokey30725

Coming down good here at the foot of Lookout Mountain now.


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> We have accumulation on the tin roof tops



I can confirm that my wife sees the same thing.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Dang I thought DDD had bet the house on next week?  Its all good by me though I have the first fishing tournament of the year next sat the 20th id rather it not be cold or snowy the days leading up to sat lol.


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> We have accumulation on the tin roof tops



I can confirm that my wife sees the same thing.  Nothing at all in sandy springs.


----------



## nickel back

toyota4x4h said:


> Dang I thought DDD had bet the house on next week?  Its all good by me though I have the first fishing tournament of the year next sat the 20th id rather it not be cold or snowy the days leading up to sat lol.




you're out of luck on that, cause its going to be cold.


----------



## jbird1

The snow is less of a flake and more of a round little puff balls.


----------



## smokey30725

We must be under one of DDD's bands he talked about. It's coming down heavy right now.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Kind of snowing in Woodstock.a flake here and there. More like little sleet balls though.but it's something at least


----------



## malak05

smokey30725 said:


> We must be under one of DDD's bands he talked about. It's coming down heavy right now.



The model timeline shows the heavier bands to be coming thru this afternoon roughly between 3 PM till 10 PM heaviest returns of QPF


----------



## RinggoldGa

smokey30725 said:


> We must be under one of DDD's bands he talked about. It's coming down heavy right now.



Looking at the radar, all the moisture is squeezed out by the time it reaches I-75.  The snow/no snow line keeps oscillating between Ringgold and west towards you.  

Lookout Mtn West into NE AL has been under heavier snow for a several hours.  Wife's boss lives on Lookout and she says they have well over an inch up there on top.  We poor people in the valley, not so much.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Miggy, appears that GFS has gotten behind the EURO that SOMETHING may happen early next week.  This map includes  what little snow accumulates from this clipper system.



Kind of sort of, but not really. You are pushing out 2 days further to the 17th beyond what we have been discussing thus far. There are several elements that must be in place for that to happen, and though runs are beginning to trend that direction please remember that High Pressure dominates, always. 

What you'll see on this cotus map that absolutely MUST happen for that dream shot at another dusting to come to fruition is the North Atlantic High Pressure MUST be in place to block that Low Pressure that is attempting to escape via the usual route. 

The spoilers are a relatively dry low pressure at 1018 mb in the midwest combined with a weak 1012 mb high pressure dead over Ga at this same time period. Lots of bad things could happen to blow the potential moisture right out of the atmosphere in that scenario. 

It's fun to speculate, but look at it as if you were having to warn folks that a massive tornado outbreak were going to occur in their area 8 days from now based on these model runs. Would you go yelling "take cover" now, like the emotions are with the potential for snow?

Not saying it won't happen, but that is my temperment and attitude in forecasting based on STS weather, and why I come off as such a negative Nellie. I have to know for majority % certain before I tell someone their life might be in danger.


----------



## Brewskis

Tiny flakes steadily dropping in Canton and sticking to the ground.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> Heck, if it keeps up like this for 4 or 5 days we may get to make a snowball.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Brewskis said:


> Tiny flakes steadily dropping in Canton and sticking to the ground.



You're out of Head-n-Shoulders aren't you?


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I have to know for majority % certain before I tell someone their life might be in danger.



This is most appreciated.


----------



## RinggoldGa

And again, I'm not a forecaster, I have no ability to analyze any of this.  But I can read a map.

This morning's 06z GFS shoes a small snow event next Monday for I-20 north but very modest low totals all the way through the northern half of the state 

The latest 00z Euro shows a bigger event for North Ga with entire northern third  of the state from a line from Floyd to Hart county getting 2-4 inches.  Atlanta and points south with 1/2 to 1 inch.  

The "snow bomb" map from the 12z euro run yesterday for the greater atlanta area has disappeared like the Mexican predicted it would.

DDD, Miquel and others can analyze this for us.  Just thought I'd provide a simple "here's what the map I can't show you" shows this morning.  I have no idea as to the who, what, when, wheres, and how of the whole thing.


----------



## Brewskis

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're out of Head-n-Shoulders aren't you?



If I had any hair left, I'd say that's a possibility.


----------



## smokey30725

malak05 said:


> The model timeline shows the heavier bands to be coming thru this afternoon roughly between 3 PM till 10 PM heaviest returns of QPF



Keep it coming!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

One other thought. Don't confuse Orographic lift coming over the Cumberland Plateau / App ridge squeezing out moisture aka snow as something that can or will be sustained long distance down range from NW Ga. 

Could be wrong, but based on experience, just a thought.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Kind of sort of, but not really. You are pushing out 2 days further to the 17th beyond what we have been discussing thus far. There are several elements that must be in place for that to happen, and though runs are beginning to trend that direction please remember that High Pressure dominates, always.
> 
> What you'll see on this cotus map that absolutely MUST happen for that dream shot at another dusting to come to fruition is the North Atlantic High Pressure MUST be in place to block that Low Pressure that is attempting to escape via the usual route.
> 
> The spoilers are a relatively dry low pressure at 1018 mb in the midwest combined with a weak 1012 mb high pressure dead over Ga at this same time period. Lots of bad things could happen to blow the potential moisture right out of the atmosphere in that scenario.
> 
> It's fun to speculate, but look at it as if you were having to warn folks that a massive tornado outbreak were going to occur in their area 8 days from now based on these model runs. Would you go yelling "take cover" now, like the emotions are with the potential for snow?
> 
> *Not saying it won't happen, but that is my temperment and attitude in forecasting based on STS weather, and why I come off as such a negative Nellie. I have to know for majority % certain before I tell someone their life might be in danger.*



That makes good sense.  

We need DDD to come back and blow some smoke near our nether regions with rampant optimism to counteract your general wisdom, good sense, and negativity!  

And I accidentally clicked forward a few frames before posting the map. 

Here's GFS at 00z Tuesday the 16th. 7pm Monday for thos of us telling time normally.


----------



## blood on the ground

Ground truth here... My weather observation station ..  aka .. roof top chair has enough snow in the seat that my hind end ain't setting in it! Othernat... No accumulation!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One other thought. Don't confuse Orographic lift coming over the Cumberland Plateau / App ridge squeezing out moisture aka snow as something that can or will be sustained long distance down range from NW Ga.
> 
> Could be wrong, but based on experience, just a thought.



What's that mean in plain English?  It have something to do with how the mountains to the west of NW GA always steal all the snow while lower points eastward get nothing?  I've watched it happen my entire life but never have known the why's of it.


----------



## lbzdually

Radar is filling back in again west of NW Georgia.  Local commissioner just said temps are expected to get well above freezing today and that is why Murray schools aren't cancelled, just delayed 2 hours.  I'm afraid about 11 AM when then next snow band hits and roads get slick for buses they will be forced to send kids home in a bad situation.


----------



## alligood729

Spitting some tiny flakes in the Circle...


----------



## fatboy84

fatboy84 said:


> I went out and urinated on my weather rock (ok, just a rock in the back yard).  It got wet and my bunyons hurt.   last time this happened we got snowed in.   Better go buy milk and bread.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> That would be forecasting under false pretenses....





gobbleinwoods said:


> peetenses.




Told y'all....I'ma snowed in in SO FOCO.  Send them big dogs with the whiskey barrel around their necks.  Then when I peetense again I can clear my driveway.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Here's GFS at 00z Tuesday the 16th. 7pm Monday for thos of us telling time normally.


Also you have to keep in mind the geographic sub-tropical anomaly they call Georgia.  It is hands down one of the hardest states to forecast winter wx for, and STS isn't a lot better. That being said, QPF totals are accumulated based on what fell, not what stayed on the ground. Always keep that in mind. Actual Snow Depth per day is marginally more accurate but using either the Kuchera (suppose to be more accurate) or the 10:1 ratio scale is subjective given our monster of a strange meso environment here. 

DDD and I discussed ratio's the other day at pretty good length and I believe our consensus for Georgia's norm is between 6:1 and 8:1 optimal ratio. So if you take those QPF estimates and apply a very conservative 6:1 to a nominally conservative 0.4 or even 0.6 cumulative total over a 24 hour period you don't come up with near as impressive numbers as the maps indicate. 

Just some more food for thought to add to your analytical arsenal as you filter through this information.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> What's that mean in plain English?  It have something to do with how the mountains to the west of NW GA always steal all the snow while lower points eastward get nothing?  I've watched it happen my entire life but never have known the why's of it.



When the dynamics are from the NW it is a pressure lift of sudden upslope rise on the west side of the ridge. In winter wx this can force larger numbers of precip on the east side immediately after the effect, but they drop off pretty fast as what little moisture is left moves down stream to the SE, unless other dynamics are available in the upper layers to support more precip. 

In STS weather it is a massive shot of lift into the upper layers as the dynamics work rapidly upslope and then the sudden influx of cold air that has been given a nitrus boost to the upper layers can't be sustained on the downslope side to the east. The result is extreme down burst winds, straightline gust front winds, or spinny things. Soon after which the storm cells die off as they progress on to the SE. 

This is all contrary to sustained Winter precip and sustained long tracking tornado weather when the dynamics are from the dead west with a LPS training all cells from the SW up through the valleys and other topograhic features in Alabama and Ga. Ergo, the Ringgold tornado of 2011 taking that signature SW to NE route and even bending more northward when it hit the ridge line north of Ringgold. No orographic dynamics are at work in these systems, they are just plain old fashion butt kickers.


----------



## jbird1

The birds here are going bonkers feeding up a storm and carrying on.  Holding steady at 30 degrees...Forsyth-Dawson line.


----------



## mtr3333

Same here Jbird


----------



## mtr3333

alligood729 said:


> Spitting some tiny flakes in the Circle...



yes there is sneet here


----------



## smokey30725

Bunch of crows are going nuts here. May be time to dust off the old Ithaca model 37 16 ga.


----------



## jbird1

I'd say we are closing in on a dusting here.  "2016 :  The Year of the Overperforming Clipper"...hehe


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mtr3333 said:


> yes there is sneet here


Gazoontite


----------



## NE GA Pappy

a few flakes in Toccoa now.  just enuff to make a 13 year old distracted from his schoolwork.

Now, where is that boy at again????


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> When the dynamics are from the NW it is a pressure lift of sudden upslope rise on the west side of the ridge. In winter wx this can force larger numbers of precip on the east side immediately after the effect, but they drop off pretty fast as what little moisture is left moves down stream to the SE, unless other dynamics are available in the upper layers to support more precip.
> 
> In STS weather it is a massive shot of lift into the upper layers as the dynamics work rapidly upslope and then the sudden influx of cold air that has been given a nitrus boost to the upper layers can't be sustained on the downslope side to the east. The result is extreme down burst winds, straightline gust front winds, or spinny things. Soon after which the storm cells die off as they progress on to the SE.
> 
> This is all contrary to sustained Winter precip and sustained long tracking tornado weather when the dynamics are from the dead west with a LPS training all cells from the SW up through the valleys and other topograhic features in Alabama and Ga. Ergo, the Ringgold tornado of 2011 taking that signature SW to NE route and even bending more northward when it hit the ridge line north of Ringgold. No orographic dynamics are at work in these systems, they are just plain old fashion butt kickers.



2011 was ungood.  Can still see the scars on White Oak Mtn just east of "downtown" Ringgold.  Rough time in this community.  

Thanks for explaining that.  Learning little bit by little bit here.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Miguel Cervantes said:


> When the dynamics are from the NW it is a pressure lift of sudden upslope rise on the west side of the ridge. In winter wx this can force larger numbers of precip on the east side immediately after the effect, but they drop off pretty fast as what little moisture is left moves down stream to the SE, unless other dynamics are available in the upper layers to support more precip.
> 
> In STS weather it is a massive shot of lift into the upper layers as the dynamics work rapidly upslope and then the sudden influx of cold air that has been given a nitrus boost to the upper layers can't be sustained on the downslope side to the east. The result is extreme down burst winds, straightline gust front winds, or spinny things. Soon after which the storm cells die off as they progress on to the SE.
> 
> This is all contrary to sustained Winter precip and sustained long tracking tornado weather when the dynamics are from the dead west with a LPS training all cells from the SW up through the valleys and other topograhic features in Alabama and Ga. Ergo, the Ringgold tornado of 2011 taking that signature SW to NE route and even bending more northward when it hit the ridge line north of Ringgold. No orographic dynamics are at work in these systems, they are just plain old fashion butt kickers.



One more example of topographic reliability for long track tornados, then I'll get off this topic and let y'all get back to your sneet. 

Take a look at the topo map below of Aliceville, Carrolton and Reform. Look where the valley is with the ridges on either side. Now imagine taking an old fashion spinning top and turning it loose in that valley. Then go back and look at last weeks tornado path through that area. It isn't a guarantee the spinny thing will stay in that valley, especially if it is a very large very powerful storm, but for the most part you can bet on them taking the path of least resistance when the classic SW to NE training is set up.


----------



## Brewskis

Much bigger flakes now flying here in Canton.


----------



## Crakajak

32 degrees  in the east of the big rock


----------



## Patriot44

Just be spring. Enough.


----------



## jbird1

Just got a NWS update on my phone about "areas of light snow will increase across the region Tuesday morning" and a  "dusting to 1/2 inch North of 20 and I-85." It will be interesting to see if they expand the WWA.  Clippermageddon!!


----------



## spotman

Saw some Sandhill Cranes headed north a few minutes ago. They must be ready for spring.


----------



## Patriot44

spotman said:


> Saw some Sandhill Cranes headed north a few minutes ago. They must be ready for spring.



Saw a big flock headed to yankee land yesterday over kennesaw.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Pretty big flakes coming down now. It's accumulating slightly in my backyard. Enough for my dogs to have some fun


----------



## malak05

It's a Flizzard in Sandy Springs now


----------



## dsceviour

Heavy snow flurries/showers here in John's Creek!


----------



## fatboy84

dsceviour said:


> Heavy snow flurries/showers here in John's Creek!



There you go regurgitating what you read somewhere else. 

This is math class.  Show your work.


----------



## todd03blown

parisinthe20s said:


> Pretty big flakes coming down now. It's accumulating slightly in my backyard. Enough for my dogs to have some fun



Sweet! I left Hickory Flat this morning at 7:15 and it was snowing good then.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Been snowing since I got to work in Dalton at 8 this morning. Gotten a little more steady over the last hour. I think the roads will get messy if this keeps up and the radar seems to show plenty more comin in from bama.


----------



## malak05

Interesting to see how this progresses


----------



## dsceviour

fatboy84 said:


> There you go regurgitating what you read somewhere else.
> 
> This is math class.  Show your work.



Actually no, I'm watching it as it happens, thanks!


----------



## Bitteroot

Snowing in Calhoun...


----------



## elandil

Snowing real good in Adairsville.


----------



## doenightmare

Wow - read about the birds going nuts so I looked out the window. Yard is slap full of robins going bonkers and it's snowing.


----------



## Brewskis

fatboy84 said:


> There you go regurgitating what you read somewhere else.
> 
> This is math class.  Show your work.





In other news, dumping in Canton now.


----------



## smokey30725

The snow beagles enjoying the fruits of their labors.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> The snow beagles enjoying the fruits of their labors.



Don't eat the yellow snow.......


----------



## smokey30725

And they just announced my son's school is closing early due to more anticipated snow coming this afternoon.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Don't eat the yellow snow.......



or the brown poop-scicles.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Dusting on elevated and grassy surfaces here in Duluth. I don't know about bridges, but I'd presume they're okay since it was 50 something yesterday. Y'all be safe.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Are the temps going to truly get a few degrees above freezing today?  Here in NW GA was predicted to get to 34 for several hours in the afternoon.

Currently 28 and snow is coming down good.  If we don't get above freezing the roads are going to start getting bad at some point.


----------



## Jeff Raines

sun shine in north paulding at 10:10


----------



## smokey30725

You'd never know there was a big mountain right there.


----------



## MariettaDawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One more example of topographic reliability for long track tornados, then I'll get off this topic and let y'all get back to your sneet.
> 
> Take a look at the topo map below of Aliceville, Carrolton and Reform. Look where the valley is with the ridges on either side. Now imagine taking an old fashion spinning top and turning it loose in that valley. Then go back and look at last weeks tornado path through that area. It isn't a guarantee the spinny thing will stay in that valley, especially if it is a very large very powerful storm, but for the most part you can bet on them taking the path of least resistance when the classic SW to NE training is set up.



I got a speeding ticket in Gordo one time.  Stinking speed trap it is.


----------



## jbird1

This is purely anecdotal evidence, but it is coming down pretty heavy in North-Central, far Eastern Cobb County the other side of the river from Sandy Springs at my mother's house.  This just so happens to be the area of the "heavier band" that the models have been pointing to for a couple of days.


----------



## Adam5

There is light snow at 285 and Powers Ferry. It's not melting as it hits the ground, but it's too light to accumulate.


----------



## smokey30725

It slacked off for a bit, but it's back with big fluffy flakes.


----------



## doenightmare

Coming down good in Roswell. Starting to stick to cars and grassy areas.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Actual road temps in N & NW Ga. (posted by Brad Nitz on Twitter) I certainly hope GEMA & GDOT are in open communications with the BOE's of each county.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Actual road temps in N & NW Ga. (posted by Brad Nitz on Twitter) I certainly hope GEMA & GDOT are in open communications with the BOE's of each county.



Catoosa and Walker county were closed today.  Whitfield (dalton) is closing early.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Those temps were at around 730 this morning id guess they have risen just a little. Nothing sticking here in Dalton.


----------



## Matthew6

toyota4x4h said:


> Those temps were at around 730 this morning id guess they have risen just a little. Nothing sticking here in Dalton.



good to know


----------



## Flog2424

Anyone know if the road sensor info can be found through GDOT or NWS?


----------



## smokey30725

It's coming down hard here in Flintstone now. Just got back from picking up my son. Topped off the Z71 on the way back.


----------



## zworley3

Flog2424 said:


> Anyone know if the road sensor info can be found through GDOT or NWS?



It can be found here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=gdot_rwis

Just use the drop down box to locate the intersection nearest you.


----------



## GA DAWG

Been snowing all day. Nothing to show for it. Flakes have gotten bigger and wetter.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Is this supposed to be an on and off thing all day?


----------



## smokey30725

Sure seems like it. It will come down real heavy for about 20 minutes and then slack off for a while and then start right back up.


----------



## Milkman

Been out of the loop on these threads for a few days. Is the bigger system for early next week still a good possibility?


----------



## elfiii

Let it snow all it can. I'm ready.


----------



## todd03blown

I see Cherokee County is sending out texts warning about slick road conditions around the county.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

We getting the the flurries in Thomson. My wife is up in ATL with the light snow.


----------



## PappyHoel

They sent my kids home at noon in Dawson cty.  The wife sent me a picture of a dry parking lot with sunny sky's and a carpool line.


----------



## RinggoldGa

The 12z GFS really believes in Miguel and DDD's deformation band.  Some folks in the ATL may win the veritable prize.


----------



## jbird1

PappyHoel said:


> They sent my kids home at noon in Dawson cty.  The wife sent me a picture of a dry parking lot with sunny sky's and a carpool line.



I can verify this^^.....partly sunny here.  Looks like they added Cherokee to the WWA.


----------



## Priest

An hour ago, 575 in Cherokee just south of canton, it was snowing hard. 50 foot visibility and 575 covered in snow. Cops on the shoulder running lights.

0.5" on the back porch, slight covering on the ground. 

I'm down at Kennestone (labor and delivery) now....Looks like nothing


----------



## crackerdave

I counted 47 flakes here in Troup county.


----------



## Priest

This was after visibility improved


----------



## smokey30725

Back to heavy snow here in Flintstone.


----------



## GA DAWG

Pretty good clipper.


----------



## todd03blown

I am surprised cherokee county has not started to close schools yet...


----------



## Matthew6

smokey30725 said:


> Back to heavy snow here in Flintstone.



how much you got


----------



## smokey30725

Matthew6 said:


> how much you got



Where it's sticking, we have a little over an inch.


----------



## RinggoldGa

12Z euro is persistant with a North Ga storm.  EDIT - FOR NEXT MONDAY

Line north of Floyd County to Elbert County 3+ inches with peak amounts of 6 inches in the fare NE mountains.  

Tapers off completely once you get to a line from Carrol County to Columbia County.  

This makes quite a few runs of the Euro saying we're getting something.  The GFS has slowly started to show something, just not as much as the Euro.

I look forward to Miquel telling us how it won't happen and to DDD to tell us how it will.  I equally enjoy both analyses.


----------



## Crakajak

RinggoldGa said:


> 12Z euro is persistant with a North Ga storm.
> 
> Line north of Floyd County to Elbert County 3+ inches with peak amounts of 6 inches in the fare NE mountains.
> 
> Tapers off completely once you get to a line from Carrol County to Columbia County.
> 
> This makes quite a few runs of the Euro saying we're getting something.  The GFS has slowly started to show something, just not as much as the Euro.
> 
> I look forward to Miquel telling us how it won't happen and to DDD to tell us how it will.  I equally enjoy both analyses.



This for next Monday?


----------



## Hooked On Quack

36 and nothing happening in Washington county.


----------



## dsceviour

RinggoldGa said:


> 12Z euro is persistant with a North Ga storm.
> 
> Line north of Floyd County to Elbert County 3+ inches with peak amounts of 6 inches in the fare NE mountains.
> 
> Tapers off completely once you get to a line from Carrol County to Columbia County.
> 
> This makes quite a few runs of the Euro saying we're getting something.  The GFS has slowly started to show something, just not as much as the Euro.
> 
> I look forward to Miquel telling us how it won't happen and to DDD to tell us how it will.  I equally enjoy both analyses.



Is metro included?


----------



## Paymaster

flurries here right now


----------



## RinggoldGa

dsceviour said:


> Is metro included?



Northern Metro like Cherokee and Forsyth are on that 1-2 inch area.  

But like DDD, Miguel, WxSouth (on FB) and North Ga Weather (on FB) all say, these individual runs don't really mean anything when you look at IMBY totals.  It's the overall trend.  This is now I think 3-4 days (6-8 runs) that the Euro is showing SOMETHING.  That's the positive trend.

I'll predict the following exchange

Miguel - it won't happen, the low will wobble, the high will toggle, and we'll see nothing but cold rain. 

DDD - SNOWBOMB - OMG - LOOKS GREAT - ONE WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR - RELEASE THE BEAGLES!! 

The ground truth next Monday is probably somewhere in between!  

(hope they don't mind me poking fun at them)


----------



## dsceviour

RinggoldGa said:


> Northern Metro like Cherokee and Forsyth are on that 1-2 inch area.
> 
> But like DDD, Miguel, WxSouth (on FB) and North Ga Weather (on FB) all say, these individual runs don't really mean anything when you look at IMBY totals.  It's the overall trend.  This is now I think 3-4 days (6-8 runs) that the Euro is showing SOMETHING.  That's the positive trend.
> 
> I'll predict the following exchange
> 
> Miguel - it won't happen, the low will wobble, the high will toggle, and we'll see nothing but cold rain.
> 
> DDD - SNOWBOMB - OMG - LOOKS GREAT - ONE WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR - RELEASE THE BEAGLES!!
> 
> The ground truth next Monday is probably somewhere in between!
> 
> (hope they don't mind me poking fun at them)



Haha well I definitely hope for the best!


----------



## Nitram4891

I really hope this thing does something later on today.


----------



## DDD

Quick update from my phone. 

Models are all over the place. From rain, to light snow to a terrible ice storm in the CAD prone areas. This system can not be foretold right now. 

Those snow maps are probably trying to account for what much of that would be freezing rain. Not what we want at all. I'm not going to bite yet on any of them. 

More than likely it will be Friday/Saturday before I have a good feeling about which way to lean. At this point I would start to watch which models trend towards the other.  Right now they are all in different camps.


----------



## DDD

RinggoldGa said:


> Northern Metro like Cherokee and Forsyth are on that 1-2 inch area.
> 
> But like DDD, Miguel, WxSouth (on FB) and North Ga Weather (on FB) all say, these individual runs don't really mean anything when you look at IMBY totals.  It's the overall trend.  This is now I think 3-4 days (6-8 runs) that the Euro is showing SOMETHING.  That's the positive trend.
> 
> I'll predict the following exchange
> 
> Miguel - it won't happen, the low will wobble, the high will toggle, and we'll see nothing but cold rain.
> 
> DDD - SNOWBOMB - OMG - LOOKS GREAT - ONE WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR - RELEASE THE BEAGLES!!
> 
> The ground truth next Monday is probably somewhere in between!
> 
> (hope they don't mind me poking fun at them)





I wish I could say that. 

You left out Tommy Hunter:  What does the weather channel say???


----------



## DDD

Priest said:


> This was after visibility improved



What road is this?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Northern Metro like Cherokee and Forsyth are on that 1-2 inch area.
> 
> But like DDD, Miguel, WxSouth (on FB) and North Ga Weather (on FB) all say, these individual runs don't really mean anything when you look at IMBY totals.  It's the overall trend.  This is now I think 3-4 days (6-8 runs) that the Euro is showing SOMETHING.  That's the positive trend.
> 
> I'll predict the following exchange
> 
> Miguel - it won't happen, the low will wobble, the high will toggle, and we'll see nothing but cold rain.
> 
> DDD - SNOWBOMB - OMG - LOOKS GREAT - ONE WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR - RELEASE THE BEAGLES!!
> 
> The ground truth next Monday is probably somewhere in between!
> 
> (hope they don't mind me poking fun at them)



Be careful, we might recruit you as our Onion News interpreter.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Be careful, we might recruit you as our Onion News interpreter.



I can't predict the weather, don't know my qpf from a q-tip. . .  but satire and humor I have a decent handle on.


----------



## Danny Leigh

DDD said:


> What road is this?



He mentioned 575 near Canton in a post a couple above the pictures.


----------



## todd03blown

DDD said:


> What road is this?



575 up on Cherokee county. I think it was sixes road area.


----------



## PappyHoel

It's a blizzard whiteout here in Sandy springs


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Quick update from my phone.
> 
> Models are all over the place. From rain, to light snow to a terrible ice storm in the CAD prone areas. This system can not be foretold right now.
> 
> Those snow maps are probably trying to account for what much of that would be freezing rain. Not what we want at all. I'm not going to bite yet on any of them.
> 
> More than likely it will be Friday/Saturday before I have a good feeling about which way to lean. At this point I would start to watch which models trend towards the other.  Right now they are all in different camps.




Dang just once I wish they would stay steady and give us the clown map with 5 inches all the way past Macon.


----------



## elfiii

PappyHoel said:


> It's a blizzard whiteout here in Sandy springs



Blue sky and sunshine in Suwanee.


----------



## PappyHoel

elfiii said:


> Blue sky and sunshine in Suwanee.



It stopped now.  This is the most snow I've ever seen that has not stuck.  It's literally been snowing off and on (heavy at times) all day.


----------



## smokey30725

Sun came out up here and most of it is gone now.


----------



## jbird1

The bottom just fell out in N Forsyth...not sticking to the roads


----------



## todd03blown

About to venture home from the King and Queen buildings back to Hickory Flat. Leaving at 4pm. should be interesting.


----------



## smokey30725

Dang. Snow is back with a vengeance. It's really been a roller coaster today.


----------



## smokey30725

Glenn Burns posted on twitter about an hour ago that he has concerns about next Monday across north GA. He says "storm along gulf coast and huge wedge over us. Could have some major ice." Ready to hear our resident experts' opinions on the matter.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Snow flurries in the csra


----------



## blood on the ground

Just did a big cannon ball off into the pool....


----------



## Crakajak

blood on the ground said:


> Just did a big cannon ball off into the pool....



From your weather chair?


----------



## Priest

DDD said:


> What road is this?



575 @ 6es


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Just did a big cannon ball off into the pool....



You don't have a pool idjit.........well........you do but it has a concrete lid on it.


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> Glenn Burns posted on twitter about an hour ago that he has concerns about next Monday across north GA. He says "storm along gulf coast and huge wedge over us. Could have some major ice." Ready to hear our resident experts' opinions on the matter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Glenn Burns posted on twitter about an hour ago that he has concerns about next Monday across north GA. He says "storm along gulf coast and huge wedge over us. Could have some major ice." Ready to hear our resident experts' opinions on the matter.



Dats whut I wuz sayin. Surface cold hps and overrunning lps moisture don't make no blizzerd. It makes the bad ugly stuff. 

Never fret though, it won't come to that. Glenn was just in it for the ratings.


----------



## blood on the ground

Crakajak said:


> From your weather chair?


Absolutely


Miguel Cervantes said:


> You don't have a pool idjit.........well........you do but it has a concrete lid on it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Absolutely



You little stinker you.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

DDD, check out this window of nothing on radar.  It's been like that all day.  As if the mountains were repelling the snow.  Radar shows snow all day coming toward us, and when it reaches the western edge of the mountains, it disappears.  What gives?


----------



## jbird1

What story does it tell?


----------



## GA DAWG

My thoughts on it are it cant be good. Or maybe it is.


----------



## PappyHoel

We have a good dusting here and it's still snowing


----------



## nickel back

I'm sure DDD will give the models a look but he did say it will be Friday or Saturday before he has a good idea of what might happen


----------



## smokey30725

sure got quiet in here.......


----------



## PappyHoel

Dawson County schools are closed tomorrow.  There's a good dusting but I think it's done.


----------



## Match10Colt

Priest said:


> This was after visibility improved



That ain't nuttin...


----------



## JonRatliff

David Chandley just posted to Facebook acknowledging the biggest snow threat we've seen so far.

Also, WxSouth has a new post too. Y'all go check it out.


----------



## jbird1

Kind of a "Wild West" feel to the Winter Weather thread this year...


----------



## smokey30725

The beagles are resting up for next week.


----------



## jbird1

Quick draws, shoot outs, saloon brawls, 10 paces at high noon, etc.


----------



## Stonewall 2

Maybe our resident weather guru's could copy and paste their reports and maps in the on the on topic section in another winter weather thread so we don't have to go thru all the carp when you can't get online for a day and there are 5 pages to go thru to get to the meat after a day of snow flurries.


----------



## Milkman

I guess some folks don't know how to act when they come to someones house.


----------



## DDD

Stonewall 2 said:


> Maybe our resident weather guru's could copy and paste their reports and maps in the on the on topic section in another winter weather thread so we don't have to go thru all the carp when you can't get online for a day and there are 5 pages to go thru to get to the meat after a day of snow flurries.


----------



## DDD

Milkman said:


> I guess some folks don't know how to act when they come to someones house.


----------



## Stonewall 2

DDD said:


> Ooops.  Sniper got ya.



Got me too!


----------



## DDD

Alright lets talk weather... I will have a post up tonight.  Working on some in depth stuff.

How long have I been saying circle 14-17th on the calendar???


----------



## mark-7mag

Must be all coming together for next week. David Chandly was just talking about the possibility for a winter storm next week


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

DDD said:


> Alright lets talk weather... I will have a post up tonight.  Working on some in depth stuff.
> 
> How long have I been saying circle 14-17th on the calendar???


I circled the 15th a week ago.....For a little while today Weather Underground had a snowflake for the 15th......Last time I looked that snowflake had turned into rain!!!..........I have a bad feeling about this one!!..........Freezing Rain/Ice storm!!

No models, just my gut feeling!!


----------



## DDD

Right now we are almost in the 5 day window.  EURO and some other modeling have sped up the system.  That is why the local mets have jumped on the band wagon.

Also, as I said in my blog a few nights ago, I expected the GFS and Canadian to move towards the EURO and that is what has happened or maybe I should say thats what appears to be happening.

The EURO has come a little farther north with it's solution as far as snow goes and has given us more of a DEEP very cold layer of air.  The GFS also has the cold air entrenched as well.  The high pressure that the Mexican has been harping on is deeply entrenched over Virginia shoving cold air into the CAD prone areas all the way to Atlanta.

Many of the models have really amped up the amount of moisture with this system.  Obviously temps become an issue and you end up gulf moisture bringing a warm nose  and dry slotting.  You can even end up with thunderstorms on the gulf coast or just inland of the gulf and it will rob moisture up stream.  Causing the amount of moisture to be less up north.

Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing Sunday.  The GFS has much of metro Atlanta going to 36 for a high, but I again think 33-34 will be a stretch.  The dew points are in the single digits and are in the NEGATIVE digits over South Carolina and North Carolina.  That is some SERIOUS cold and it will require a lot of moisture to saturate the column.  A lot of moisture will be lost to evaporation but with that comes evaporational cooling dropping the temp even more.

Crazy how cold it will be!  

Bottom line right now, I don't think any one model has a good handle, but I am starting to get a picture of what is at the very least going on.

Right now I see a real scenario being a snow to sleet to freezing rain event.  The CAD prone areas will hold the cold in the longest and it will be a STRONG CAD for sure.

It's still a tad bit far out to get lost in the details, but for sure, old man winter will come to town Sunday night into Monday morning and go for 12-18 hours.  

There is a lot going on, but one thing for sure to watch is how soon the moisture gets here.  If the moisture can get here quick, it will help with snow totals and locking in the cold air in the CAD regions.  The GFS is slow with it's solution.  By the time the moisture gets here from the gulf, the cold air has eroded or is eroding.  It would be a cold rain and one heck of a missed chance at a big winter storm.  However,  I don't buy it.  The southern Jet is going to pick that moisture up and spread it East faster than is modeled and it will get things going in the right direction.

More details later, but that's all I got for now.   Let's keep an eye on timing of the moisture.  That is key.


----------



## DDD

Also, weather in the North Carolina mountains is... well, no one here cares about the weather in NC mountains.


----------



## doenightmare

DDD said:


> Right now we are almost in the 5 day window.  EURO and some other modeling have sped up the system.  That is why the local mets have jumped on the band wagon.
> 
> Also, as I said in my blog a few nights ago, I expected the GFS and Canadian to move towards the EURO and that is what has happened or maybe I should say thats what appears to be happening.
> 
> The EURO has come a little farther north with it's solution as far as snow goes and has given us more of a DEEP very cold layer of air.  The GFS also has the cold air entrenched as well.  The high pressure that the Mexican has been harping on is deeply entrenched over Virginia shoving cold air into the CAD prone areas all the way to Atlanta.
> 
> Many of the models have really amped up the amount of moisture with this system.  Obviously temps become an issue and you end up gulf moisture bringing a warm nose  and dry slotting.  You can even end up with thunderstorms on the gulf coast or just inland of the gulf and it will rob moisture up stream.  Causing the amount of moisture to be less up north.
> 
> Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing Sunday.  The GFS has much of metro Atlanta going to 36 for a high, but I again think 33-34 will be a stretch.  The dew points are in the single digits and are in the NEGATIVE digits over South Carolina and North Carolina.  That is some SERIOUS cold and it will require a lot of moisture to saturate the column.  A lot of moisture will be lost to evaporation but with that comes evaporational cooling dropping the temp even more.
> 
> Crazy how cold it will be!
> 
> Bottom line right now, I don't think any one model has a good handle, but I am starting to get a picture of what is at the very least going on.
> 
> Right now I see a real scenario being a snow to sleet to freezing rain event.  The CAD prone areas will hold the cold in the longest and it will be a STRONG CAD for sure.
> 
> It's still a tad bit far out to get lost in the details, but for sure, old man winter will come to town Sunday night into Monday morning and go for 12-18 hours.
> 
> There is a lot going on, but one thing for sure to watch is how soon the moisture gets here.  If the moisture can get here quick, it will help with snow totals and locking in the cold air in the CAD regions.  The GFS is slow with it's solution.  By the time the moisture gets here from the gulf, the cold air has eroded or is eroding.  It would be a cold rain and one heck of a missed chance at a big winter storm.  However,  I don't buy it.  The southern Jet is going to pick that moisture up and spread it East faster than is modeled and it will get things going in the right direction.
> 
> More details later, but that's all I got for now.   Let's keep an eye on timing of the moisture.  That is key.



Great synopsis 3D  -I almost understood it. Let's hope it comes together and we get SNOW. Thanks.


----------



## weezzey

Thanks DDD


----------



## DDD

While I was typing this the Canadian came in.  Again, it too has me thinking Snow to sleet to freezing rain.   I do NOT like the potential this has for a severe icing event.  We are way over due and this one has some real potential.

So much so it warrants the news mets jumping on this early and I am glad to see Glenn Burns and David Chandley already talking about it because it will have people's attention and they will follow it.  If it turns into an ICE storm, like I am starting to think it might... It will be good to have people knowing whats coming early.

Still a lot of time to go, but you can see on the Canadian the CAD pushing down the back side of the mountains.


----------



## smokey30725

I think we can all agree that nothing good comes from an icing event.


----------



## crackerdave

smokey30725 said:


> I think we can all agree that nothing good comes from an icing event.



Yes!

Time to check the ol' generator and whatnot.


----------



## blood on the ground

Bring on the blizzard!


----------



## nickel back

Stonewall 2 said:


> Maybe our resident weather guru's could copy and paste their reports and maps in the on the on topic section in another winter weather thread so we don't have to go thru all the carp when you can't get online for a day and there are 5 pages to go thru to get to the meat after a day of snow flurries.





DDD said:


>



said the same thing, or some one can start a ground truth/banter thread for talking snow that is falling and where. Leave the winter weather thread alone for talks of the whats/where/whys/how/when.....just my .02


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Just a reminder. It was this very same time in 2014 that we had our mini ice storm. Caused enough grief for me that I just finished cleaning up limbs from it this fall, but didn't lose power but for a couple of hours or so. 

Just sayin............


----------



## fish hawk

Thank goodness they took the chance for snow out of our forecast down here.........Looks like the highs for the 18th and 19th is gonna bust 70*,spring is just around the corner


----------



## PappyHoel

Don't say ice.  We were out of power for 3 days.  It got to 34 degrees in the house.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

If I made a forecast that sounded like this; "starting out as sporadic light snow, followed up mid-day to afternoon by freezing drizzle converting back to light sporadic snow in the evening and finishing off with freezing drizzle eventually converting to liquid precip as the warmer air moves in the following morning.

What would you say?


----------



## GA DAWG

PappyHoel said:


> Don't say ice.  We were out of power for 3 days.  It got to 34 degrees in the house.


Better fire up that gen this week just incase.


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Also, weather in the North Carolina mountains is... well, no one here cares about the weather in NC mountains.



i


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Stonewall 2 said:


> Maybe our resident weather guru's could copy and paste their reports and maps in the on the on topic section in another winter weather thread so we don't have to go thru all the carp when you can't get online for a day and there are 5 pages to go thru to get to the meat after a day of snow flurries.



You can put people on ignore.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I20 line seems to be the usual hit or miss


----------



## fish hawk

Migmack said:


> You can put people on ignore.



this or you could watch your local forecast on TV


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just a reminder. It was this very same time in 2014 that we had our mini ice storm. Caused enough grief for me that I just finished cleaning up limbs from it this fall, but didn't lose power but for a couple of hours or so.
> 
> Just sayin............



Typical.


----------



## Mike 65

DDD, in a previous thread you were talking about a Miller A system being our best chance for snow, is this a Miller A?
And how far south do you think it will go at this point?
Thanks !


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If I made a forecast that sounded like this; "starting out as sporadic light snow, followed up mid-day to afternoon by freezing drizzle converting back to light sporadic snow in the evening and finishing off with freezing drizzle eventually converting to liquid precip as the warmer air moves in the following morning.
> 
> What would you say?



Nothing good comes from an ice event.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Patriot44 said:


> Typical.



Well, with the exception of a small chance for far NE GA due to a very unpredictable CAD, it's not going to do any of this. But that is what is showing now. At the rate the HPS is transitioning offshore over the last 4 days Euro runs, it will be a non-discussion by Friday and a simple rain event. 

But you gotta start with what you got, look at what has been trending, and why, and then look at the probability of where it will be around the time of the date being discussed.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mike 65 said:


> DDD, in a previous thread you were talking about a Miller A system being our best chance for snow, is this a Miller A?
> And how far south do you think it will go at this point?
> Thanks !



It is neither. 

This link might help.

http://www.examiner.com/slideshow/miller-a-vs-miller-b-storms#slide=1


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

It's 10 degrees outside with wind gusts reaching 28mph.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, with the exception of a small chance for far NE GA due to a very unpredictable CAD, it's not going to do any of this. But that is what is showing now. At the rate the HPS is transitioning offshore over the last 4 days Euro runs, it will be a non-discussion by Friday and a simple rain event.
> 
> But you gotta start with what you got, look at what has been trending, and why, and then look at the probability of where it will be around the time of the date being discussed.



I totally agree.


----------



## Crakajak

Stonewall 2 said:


> Maybe our resident weather guru's could copy and paste their reports and maps in the on the on topic section in another winter weather thread so we don't have to go thru all the carp when you can't get online for a day and there are 5 pages to go thru to get to the meat after a day of snow flurries.



If you click on their name(DDD,Miguel)in the tread you can pull up all post by them .


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> It's 10 degrees outside with wind gusts reaching 28mph.



That puts you at about -12°F

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/windchill.shtml


----------



## DDD

Great video from Matthew East this morning. He talks mainly about the Carolinas but includes Georgia in his maps and talking.   This system is hinging on the track and timing of the low pressure. If you want snow you want that low down around Panama City.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Oh, and on a side note, if there is an area of great concern over a dangerous icing event, it would be the western NC mountains. I hope their DOT is paying attention and folks are prepared. Up in those hills you can't just walk to your neighbors house when things go wrong, and the elderly are especially vulnerable. 

Sorry for the interruption. 

Carry on.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Migmack said:


> I20 line seems to be the usual hit or miss



If it's ice like 2014, keep it WAY above I-20!


----------



## jbird1

Just watched the Mathew East video and it seems like the models are all over the place and he is throwing darts.  He mentions "hand drawn" maps which leads me to believe this thing is squirrely and they don't trust the models Low tracks at this point. There is way too much warm air around for my tastes leading to possible ice scenarios.  It needs to either be all snow or all rain so I'm hoping for some divine intervention.  I was hoping to see a reinforcing Arctic blast to follow the event but it appears to be a quick warm up.  Ice no bueno.


----------



## Stonewall 2

Crakajak said:


> If you click on their name(DDD,Miguel)in the tread you can pull up all post by them .


Thanks for that tip!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Seems like the trend is ALWAYS the models show storms 10-12 days out.  Look great, all the players are there.  Then they slowly deteriorate, things fall apart, and by the time they are supposed to be here we are all left lacking and wondering what the heck happened to our snowmageddon.

Be nice to flip the script once and have NOTHING show up 10 days out, solution begins to show "maybe" something 5 days from now, then 48 hrs prior to go time the models blow us up with a big storm.  

Would be a nice change of pace.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> Just watched the Mathew East video and it seems like the models are all over the place and he is throwing darts.  He mentions "hand drawn" maps which leads me to believe this thing is squirrely and they don't trust the models Low tracks at this point. There is way too much warm air around for my tastes leading to possible ice scenarios.  It needs to either be all snow or all rain so I'm hoping for some divine intervention.  I was hoping to see a reinforcing Arctic blast to follow the event but it appears to be a quick warm up.  Ice no bueno.



That's a pretty good grip on the gist of it. Plus you have to keep in mind, East historically over-forecasts for Ga. Never figured out why. Give it till Friday and you might like the forecast better...............or not..........


----------



## StriperrHunterr

RinggoldGa said:


> Seems like the trend is ALWAYS the models show storms 10-12 days out.  Look great, all the players are there.  Then they slowly deteriorate, things fall apart, and by the time they are supposed to be here we are all left lacking and wondering what the heck happened to our snowmageddon.
> 
> Be nice to flip the script once and have NOTHING show up 10 days out, solution begins to show "maybe" something 5 days from now, then 48 hrs prior to go time the models blow us up with a big storm.
> 
> Would be a nice change of pace.



You just described Snowpocalypse 2014.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Seems like the trend is ALWAYS the models show storms 10-12 days out.  Look great, all the players are there.  Then they slowly deteriorate, things fall apart, and by the time they are supposed to be here we are all left lacking and wondering what the heck happened to our snowmageddon.
> 
> Be nice to flip the script once and have NOTHING show up 10 days out, solution begins to show "maybe" something 5 days from now, then 48 hrs prior to go time the models blow us up with a big storm.
> 
> Would be a nice change of pace.



In the past years that is kind of sort of how it has happened. The outliers have gotten much less attention with logic following the consensus. Lately that has not been the case as confidence has grown in the Euro's ability and track record. 

I'm just cantankerous enough not to follow that party line though. Call me negative Nellie, but you can also search back on all of my buzz kill forecasts and see how many times they were correct as well. 

Now, back to my own page. Y'all have fun now, ya hear!!!


----------



## RinggoldGa

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> You just described Snowpocalypse 2014.



It wasn't a snow bomb.  It was a very small amount of snow that resulted in frozen roads which caused infinitely more issues than much higher totals of wet snow that didn't freeze on the roads. 

BUt it was definitely much "sneakier" than the usual forecast.  Good point.


----------



## parisinthe20s

A few flakes still falling in Woodstock. Very minimal though.I hope the event around the 15th surprises us with at the least an inch of snow.


----------



## Mike 65

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It is neither.
> 
> This link might help.
> 
> http://www.examiner.com/slideshow/miller-a-vs-miller-b-storms#slide=1



Thanks. 
My knowledge of weather does not exceed my weather rock!


----------



## gacowboy

DDD said:


> Great video from Matthew East this morning. He talks mainly about the Carolinas but includes Georgia in his maps and talking.   This system is hinging on the track and timing of the low pressure. If you want snow you want that low down around Panama City.



Good post !! Thank you for keeping us informed !!


----------



## nickel back

............................


----------



## smokey30725

It was still snowing like crazy in Flintstone this morning all the way into Lookout Valley. Once I got around the 75/24 split, it was like a curtain was lifted and all clear. Then around Dalton / Calhoun it started coming down again. Looks to be all clear now.


----------



## nickel back

https://twitter.com/BradNitzWSB?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


----------



## todd03blown

Here ya go.

https://www.facebook.com/brad.nitz/posts/1712260715716695


----------



## toyota4x4h

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I WANTED SNOW AND 6" LIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SAID!!!! But now im just gonna say let winter be over im ready for spring and fishing!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Nasty.


----------



## nickel back

todd03blown said:


> Here ya go.
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/brad.nitz/posts/1712260715716695



Yea, that right there stinks....


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miquel/DDD - either of you care to extrapolate on the difference in the parallel and operational runs of the Euro?

Parallel is still a snow bomb for North Ga.  Operational has very little.  

Isn't the parallel supposed to the new and improved Euro?  Does it have a better handle on this or does it still need to be tweaked?


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

todd03blown said:


> Here ya go.
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/brad.nitz/posts/1712260715716695



I don't like that map lol


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> Miquel/DDD - either of you care to extrapolate on the difference in the parallel and operational runs of the Euro?
> 
> Parallel is still a snow bomb for North Ga.  Operational has very little.
> 
> Isn't the parallel supposed to the new and improved Euro?  Does it have a better handle on this or does it still need to be tweaked?



The word "new" should tell you all you need to know. 

Your's truly, 

Negative Nellie


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> Yea, that right there stinks....



nickel back done runoft the snow


----------



## nickel back

Matthew6 said:


> nickel back done runoft the snow



don't blame me for this poor excuse of a winter......


----------



## smokey30725

Good grief. Temps up near 70 by the end of next week?????


----------



## Crakajak

smokey30725 said:


> Good grief. Temps up near 70 by the end of next week?????



I have a plum tree blooming as well as blueberries budding out.This weather sure is fickled this year.


----------



## snarlinbear

Is anyone going to give us a model update or is it a shot over field?


----------



## Crakajak

snarlinbear said:


> Is anyone going to give us a model update or is it a shot over field?



yes,but it will change at least 5 times between now and Sunday pm.


----------



## snarlinbear

Just wondering about the trend how many folks might be a little gun shy!


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The word "new" should tell you all you need to know.
> 
> Your's truly,
> 
> Negative Nellie



You know what I hate about your "negative nancy" routine . . .  is that you're right more often than not.


----------



## smokey30725

Already overhearing at work where people are talking about this being "the big one". I will reserve judgement until I hear from DDD or Mr. Cervantes.


----------



## hmaddox

This is better than watching Game of Thrones!


----------



## Crakajak

smokey30725 said:


> Already overhearing at work where people are talking about this being "the big one". I will reserve judgement until I hear from DDD or Mr. Cervantes.



You need to get your snow dogs some booties.


----------



## smokey30725

hmaddox said:


> This is better than watching Game of Thrones!



And with a lot less nudity (thankfully)


----------



## Resica

Picked up 6 inches here yesterday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> You know what I hate about your "negative nancy" routine . . .  is that you're right more often than not.



Nancy? I thought it was Nellie......


----------



## Matthew6

Resica said:


> Picked up 6 inches here yesterday.



congrats 

How much did you end up with last storm


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Nancy? I thought it was Nellie......



More like this:


----------



## blood on the ground

I want ice.... And pipe freezing cold


----------



## blood on the ground

Resica said:


> Picked up 6 inches here yesterday.



Thems fighting words


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> I want ice.... And pipe freezing cold





blood on the ground said:


> Thems fighting words



Better get your electric socks out and put fresh batteries in. It's fixin to get colder than a sumpin sumpin.


----------



## swamppirate

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Better get your electric socks out and put fresh batteries in. It's fixin to get colder than a sumpin sumpin.



Well diggers tail?


----------



## Resica

Matthew6 said:


> congrats
> 
> How much did you end up with last storm



Thanks.   30 inches last storm.


----------



## Resica

blood on the ground said:


> Thems fighting words


----------



## GA DAWG

My phone says. Snow starting in 10 min. I looked at radar and its bright blue in northwest ga right now. Was this supposed to happen?


----------



## shakey gizzard

GA DAWG said:


> My phone says. Snow starting in 10 min. I looked at radar and its bright blue in northwest ga right now. Was this supposed to happen?



Cant trust Doppler nowadays either! Let me know what happens in 10min


----------



## GA DAWG

shakey gizzard said:


> Cant trust Doppler nowadays either! Let me know what happens in 10min


Says 19 now. Be there in about 25 I guess.


----------



## shakey gizzard

GA DAWG said:


> Says 19 now. Be there in about 25 I guess.



I gots 31.8 deg IMBY! Must be the arctic wad coming!


----------



## parisinthe20s

It's slightly snowing by me. Not much just a few flakes.


----------



## DEERFU

GA DAWG said:


> My phone says. Snow starting in 10 min. I looked at radar and its bright blue in northwest ga right now. Was this supposed to happen?


radar showin' a good line movin' through. Is it hitting the ground?


----------



## GA DAWG

No.


----------



## smokey30725

Not seeing anything here in Flintstone


----------



## jbird1

LOTS of uncertainty...


----------



## snarlinbear

GA DAWG said:


> My phone says. Snow starting in 10 min. I looked at radar and its bright blue in northwest ga right now. Was this supposed to happen?



At 1:17 fugont ( "fowled" up Georgia Outdoor News time) I posted #352 asking about a weather update because of a system shown on the NOAA National Mosaic that indicated by radar precip headed our way that at that time was near St. Louis Mo and Paducah KY tracking SSE toward Atlanta.  

I'm not a computer geek to know how to post the map, especially after the fact.  IMHO radar is next to ground truth.  What was up that a blind pig (me) found an egg on the driving range and  picked up on that with no comment and it's now spitting a few flakes in Roswell?


----------



## jbird1

I went out and looked under the flood light and there is a some tiny sugar snow coming down...can barely see it.  You can also faintly hear it hitting the leaves.


----------



## snarlinbear

jbird1 said:


> I went out and looked under the flood light and there is a some tiny sugar snow coming down...can barely see it.  You can also faintly hear it hitting the leaves.



Thanks Jbird for covering my back with the ground truth.  Somehow I got the feeling I'm gonna be a target for my cynicism.  In reality I'm just trying to learn more of this weather stuff from the gurus.


----------



## Bitteroot

Nothing going on in Ag yellav ragus....


----------



## smokey30725

Just walked out on the deck and it's covered again. Must have had a small band pass over us a little while ago. Can't wait to hear more from DDD about this upcoming system.


----------



## doenightmare

smokey30725 said:


> Just walked out on the deck and it's covered again. Must have had a small band pass over us a little while ago. Can't wait to hear more from DDD about this upcoming system.




All I'm hearing from the local Mets is a chance for ice.  At least for the metro ATL. Hopefully 3D will have a different spin.


----------



## DDD

Been working some stupid hours. Have not even looked at one model. No clue what's going on. I will look tomorrow.


----------



## nickel back

Been reading some other weather forum threads and sounds as the models can not agree still and that no one has a good idea of the what/where/when/how/why.....seams its a mixed bag and a lot of weather geeks have their on ideas of how it all unfolds.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> I went out and looked under the flood light and there is a some tiny sugar snow coming down...can barely see it.  You can also faintly hear it hitting the leaves.



Splenda snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

There is no solid answer yet. I have one more Euro 00z to capture at midnight tonight to understand if the model is wish casting or there is some validity behind why it thinks the HPS will stall over VA after making notedly good incremental gains on it's eastward march to the Atlantic over the last four 00z runs. Nothing ahead of it is being shown as an inhibitor so my suspicion still stands that the cold will move out ahead of the moisture arriving.

The current GFS suggest that anyway. Looking at it this morning at best there would be freezing drizzle in portions of N & NE GA prior to the gulf moisture moving in in earnest after mid-day, at which point any CAD should have retreated and the 5400 mixing line as well. 

My gut is sticking with a rainy non-event for now, as the timing is just too sketchy and it is moving closer and closer to my favor with each run, and lack of total congruency among models. 

Friday will tell us more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,fingers crossed.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There is no solid answer yet. I have one more Euro 00z to capture at midnight tonight to understand if the model is wish casting or there is some validity behind why it thinks the HPS will stall over VA after making notedly good incremental gains on it's eastward march to the Atlantic over the last four 00z runs. Nothing ahead of it is being shown as an inhibitor so my suspicion still stands that the cold will move out ahead of the moisture arriving.
> 
> The current GFS suggest that anyway. Looking at it this morning at best there would be freezing drizzle in portions of N & NE GA prior to the gulf moisture moving in in earnest after mid-day, at which point any CAD should have retreated and the 5400 mixing line as well.
> 
> My gut is sticking with a rainy non-event for now, as the timing is just too sketchy and it is moving closer and closer to my favor with each run, and lack of total congruency among models.
> 
> Friday will tell us more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,fingers crossed.



Copy that.  Thanks for the truth serum (analysis.)  We are scheduled to be in Blue Ridge Sat. and Sun. night so a rain event insures an uneventful, less death defying return trip.  Or I'll take a model flip to a snow bomb as well.


----------



## PappyHoel

W underground which is pretty reliable for dawsonville says ice pellets switching to cold rain on Monday.  I will wait to hear what DDD says.


----------



## jbird1

PappyHoel said:


> W underground which is pretty reliable for dawsonville says ice pellets switching to cold rain on Monday.  I will wait to hear what DDD says.



That's exactly the picture the FOX 5 girl painted this morning.  "We'll have to watch that layer of cold air in NE Ga. and see how thick it is."  Basically, we're down to ice or rain with CAD being our source of cold air.  We gotta move on to the next one for the white stuff.


----------



## nickel back

jbird1 said:


> That's exactly the picture the FOX 5 girl painted this morning.  "We'll have to watch that layer of cold air in NE Ga. and see how thick it is."  Basically, we're down to ice or rain with CAD being our source of cold air.  We gotta move on to the next one for the white stuff.



I say let this one be it and lets move on to spring.This so called winter has sucked.


----------



## mtr3333

We are not going to get substantial sleet snow or freezing rain imfy Sun or Mon.


----------



## jbird1

nickel back said:


> I say let this one be it and lets move on to spring.This so called winter has sucked.



I'm almost there but wouldn't mind a "big one" to cleanse the Earth a little before chasing a few Spring gobblers.  We have been oscillating between warm and cold, (i.e. the rubber band effect) so I guess it's not out of the question to get several more shots of Arctic air.  Maybe we'll get one of those early Spring snows this year.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

WxSouth on FB said:
			
		

> I like how all the models overnight came around to my initial ideas of this next storm as being a "west to east " type of event, then wrapping up as it goes up the East Coast. This is going to be a fun system to forecast, but a nightmare on many levels where I cover so many geographic zones. I just did a huge breakdown at my site, on various zones, and covered how the models are trending and where it may ultimately go. There are several key points we know right now.
> 1) Cold , dry air is going to be entrenched in most of interior VA, NC, upper SC, northeast GA...and West of the Apps initial snowfall will cool the low levels in TN, KY
> 2) The storm likely will NOT wrap up into negative tilt over eastern TN. This is huge, because European now swings toward the Canadian look, which has been consistent on a flatter wave. There's leeway and some tight interplay on how this will go, and we need time to see exactly where the weak low goes, where it tracks along East coast, but its looking more like not WEST of the Apps track.
> 3) The low level cold will remain put about the entire storm in RIC RDU, CLT to GSP zones in the Cold Air Damming regions of the East. This is normal, even whne the parent high is gone. The dewpoints are near Zero to start, so major wetbulbing will occur many areas, and a southern storm track in a region of height falls, not rises, is different and fits with this kind of storm. So even though changing from snow to "something else" will occur, rain is the least of the worries in the CAD zones all the way to northeast Georgia.
> 4) Serious Ice storm, on top of intial snowfall in part of VA, NC, SC ne GA
> 5) Turns back to snow in TN Valley. European 2m temps look too warm west of Apps in heart of the storm. But it handles east side 2m temps very well, as does Canadian. Canadian is an extreme Winter storm, thanks to very low temps and lots of moisture in northeast GA and the CAD zones.
> 6) GFS model is a blend of the other two, and has snow, to ice to snow interior, and is also a southern and then eastern tracking storm, up the Coast.
> 7) Lack of thunderstorms which usually robs part of GA, Carolinas on moisture. If this remains flat--big time Winter storm and lots of ICE.
> 
> All in all this will likely be a big deal. I will fine tune areas of that are mostly freezing rain (could be lower Upstate SC, northeast GA, or near RDU, Wake County to Richmond, bisecting RVA area. Sleet may be predominant somewhere inland but a mess in the piedmont and multiple transitions, depending on exact storm track.
> 
> So, depending on where you are in northern Arkansas, all of Tenn, extreme northern AL, Northerrn, NE GA and the Carolinas, much of Kentucky, All of West Virginia and most of Virginia except SE corner up through Maryland, this looks like a big ticket item.



WxSouth just put this up, just food for thought and discussion.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> WxSouth just put this up, just food for thought and discussion.



I don't argue with WxSouth. He is the Winter Wx guru. That being said, I said my piece about this, without taking 25 paragraphs to do it on my page, and gave a brief synopsis of the same here.


----------



## RinggoldGa

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> WxSouth just put this up, just food for thought and discussion.



I'm going to need DDD or Miquel to translate that into plain English.  Struggled to understand what the various things meant for north ga.  (anything not NE GA)


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I don't argue with WxSouth. He is the Winter Wx guru. That being said, I said my piece about this, without taking 25 paragraphs to do it on my page, and gave a brief synopsis of the same here.



Link to your page?


----------



## nickel back

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> WxSouth just put this up, just food for thought and discussion.



that says a cold rain for GA, unless you live in the NE corner


----------



## willbuck

Yep - Robert's article on his website just painted a very nasty set up.  Can't copy and past as it is a paid site.  Looking forward to see how DDD digests this new info.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

nickel back said:


> that says a cold rain for GA, unless you live in the NE corner



Which, technically I do.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> I'm going to need DDD or Miquel to translate that into plain English.  Struggled to understand what the various things meant for north ga.  (anything not NE GA)



If you can't say it is, or isn't definitively going to do something, then you use a lot of words to cover the fact that you aren't humble enough to simply say; "I don't know at this point".


----------



## nickel back

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Which, technically I do.



not good, hope it stays snow for y'all that way.


----------



## GA DAWG

What happened To the big blizzard for next week?


----------



## smokey30725

The ground won't dry out enough for my 500 gallon propane tank to be installed. I'm having my 250 gallon tank topped off on Monday. Hope they can get out to my place. that would allow me to run my generator for 5 days.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> If you can't say it is, or isn't definitively going to do something, then you use a lot of words to cover the fact that you aren't humble enough to simply say; "I don't know at this point".



Much truth here. 



nickel back said:


> not good, hope it stays snow for y'all that way.



We're always on the line. Not quite in the mountains, or "real" NE GA since they all stop at Gainesville for that classification, but seeing as Gainesville is only 6-10 miles up the road that seems silly. Often, though, that's enough to have us entirely miss something. 

He just posted another map with pretty lines on it in a hope to clarify, and the S in "Severe Ice Storm" is right over Lake Lanier. 

I don't take these maps as gospel, just chances of what could happen, and that's why I posted it here because it could happen or it could not happen. 

Like Miguel has said, it's too dynamic, even this close, to call for sure and I tend to err on the side of more information being better than less. I hope people are taking my post as a prod to get prepared if they aren't already, but this is far from the "hide yo kids, hide yo wife" warning that some will surely take it as. 

But then I've gone and used a lot of words, even just to say I don't know, so I'm sure Miguel is gonna be affended.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> What happened To the big blizzard for next week?



Who in tarnation ever said that was gonna happen?


----------



## jbird1

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> We're always on the line. Not quite in the mountains, or "real" NE GA since they all stop at Gainesville for that classification, but seeing as Gainesville is only 6-10 miles up the road that seems silly. Often, though, that's enough to have us entirely miss something.
> 
> :



I agree.  Ground truth observations makes me believe the CAD zone is actually Cumming (SW bank of Lanier) going Northeast and East when it is fully entrenched.


----------



## todd03blown

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Who in tarnation ever said that was gonna happen?


One of those "other" experts here....


----------



## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> I agree.  Ground truth observations makes me believe the CAD zone is actually Cumming (SW bank of Lanier) going Northeast and East when it is fully entrenched.



That may be the difference. When they talk about other weather than wintry, or as my wife mistakenly heard me the other morning windtree, we're very much in NE GA. 

It may be that the zone changes in a CAD event and only the strongest ones reach us here in northern Gwinnett, but it is interesting that it comes so close, so often, without actually getting here. 

I'm not a weather guru, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I may be completely off base with that assessment, but it seems to make sense when squared with my own ground truth.


----------



## snookdoctor

We need more purdy maps showing where folks are gonna need lots of milk and bread.


----------



## jbird1

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> That may be the difference. When they talk about other weather than wintry, or as my wife mistakenly heard me the other morning windtree, we're very much in NE GA.
> 
> It may be that the zone changes in a CAD event and only the strongest ones reach us here in northern Gwinnett, but it is interesting that it comes so close, so often, without actually getting here.
> 
> I'm not a weather guru, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I may be completely off base with that assessment, but it seems to make sense when squared with my own ground truth.



I have some ice ravaged magnolia's from the last CAD event to offer into evidence.


----------



## RinggoldGa

Here's a map Robert at WxSouth posted on Facebook.  

It seems like this is VERY optimistic in relation to what we are hearing from others.  He posted this about 9am this morning.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

jbird1 said:


> I have some ice ravaged magnolia's from the last CAD event to offer into evidence.



There's something going on to make it come down to you, but stay north of me. As to what that is I can't say.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

RinggoldGa said:


> Here's a map Robert at WxSouth posted on Facebook.
> 
> It seems like this is VERY optimistic in relation to what we are hearing from others.  He posted this about 9am this morning.



That's the one I was talking about with the big red S right over the lake.


----------



## jbird1

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> There's something going on to make it come down to you, but stay north of me. As to what that is I can't say.



I'm actually North of you a little bit...on the Forsyth-Dawson line.  My fully entrenched CAD corner line would go Dahlonega to Dawsonville to Cumming to Lawrenceville to Winder to Athens type of thing. It's just convenient to say "Gainesville" I think.


----------



## JonRatliff

Ken Cook just posted this to his FB page a few minutes ago:


There's Something Coming Late Sunday Night & Into Monday Morning...

Another round of wintry weather could be poised to start over north GA on Sunday night and continue into Monday morning. This time around, there is more COLD air, more MOISTURE, and a STRONG weather maker headed toward north GA. This weather systems seems to have the potential for a widespread and significant fall of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Initially, when precipitation begins over north GA on Sunday night, it appears that the lower atmosphere will be cold enough for that to be snow. This area will be mainly north of a Rome to north Atlanta to Covington line and then eastward out I-20.

As we get into Monday morning, warmer air will be coming in with the moisture a few thousand feet above the ground. As the morning progresses, the rain/snow line will begin moving northeastward, and snow will change to sleet and rain. However, In NE Georgia, in the valleys from Lake Lanier to Gainesville to Toccoa, it may be difficult to bring the temperature above 32 degrees, and this would result in a period of freezing rain.
It looks like all precipitation should end quickly late Monday afternoon or evening.

Since this weather system is just beginning to develop, there will be changes to this synopsis, so please be aware of the latest statements or advisories from the NWS, and I'll keep you posted as well. -kc


----------



## smokey30725

RinggoldGa said:


> Here's a map Robert at WxSouth posted on Facebook.
> 
> It seems like this is VERY optimistic in relation to what we are hearing from others.  He posted this about 9am this morning.



Yikes


----------



## smokey30725

After this round, do any long term outlooks show anything else coming or should we get ready for spring?


----------



## jbird1

JonRatliff said:


> Ken Cook just posted this to his FB page a few minutes ago:
> 
> 
> There's Something Coming Late Sunday Night & Into Monday Morning...
> 
> Another round of wintry weather could be poised to start over north GA on Sunday night and continue into Monday morning. This time around, there is more COLD air, more MOISTURE, and a STRONG weather maker headed toward north GA. This weather systems seems to have the potential for a widespread and significant fall of snow, sleet and freezing rain.
> 
> Initially, when precipitation begins over north GA on Sunday night, it appears that the lower atmosphere will be cold enough for that to be snow. This area will be mainly north of a Rome to north Atlanta to Covington line and then eastward out I-20.
> 
> As we get into Monday morning, warmer air will be coming in with the moisture a few thousand feet above the ground. As the morning progresses, the rain/snow line will begin moving northeastward, and snow will change to sleet and rain. However, In NE Georgia, in the valleys from Lake Lanier to Gainesville to Toccoa, it may be difficult to bring the temperature above 32 degrees, and this would result in a period of freezing rain.
> It looks like all precipitation should end quickly late Monday afternoon or evening.
> 
> Since this weather system is just beginning to develop, there will be changes to this synopsis, so please be aware of the latest statements or advisories from the NWS, and I'll keep you posted as well. -kc



Now I could get into something like that.


----------



## GA DAWG

Let er come. I gotta continue as always anyhow. No matter the weather. I use to think only postal drivers worked in this kinda crap. Boy was I ever wrong.


----------



## nickel back

Some Info from  Brad Panovich to look at(you might not like) while we wait on DDD to break down what is going to happen for the North Ga. folks

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1023223221083467


----------



## chewy32

I can promise y'all it will do some thing as my wife is giving birth on the 17th. But I will do every thing In my power for that not to happen at my house may need to borrow a snowmobile.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Never say I don't pay attention to all sources. Thought I'd share this with y'all, but please pay attention to her comment; "nothing set in stone yet".


----------



## GA DAWG

Speaking of stone. Im watching the ol weather rock again for this one.


----------



## Nitram4891

FFC says something is going to happen


----------



## nickel back

Nitram4891 said:


> FFC says something is going to happen



yea, good thumping of rain for most of GA.....


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Never say I don't pay attention to all sources. Thought I'd share this with y'all, but please pay attention to her comment; "nothing set in stone yet".



Thanks for the red meat!


----------



## Wade Chandler

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Have I mentioned trends lately? Below you will see the 00z Euro, not an outlier map, that is 100% consistent with all Euro runs over the last few days. That massive cold high pressure continues to slowly slide east with each run and any "would be" low pressure contributors for a shot at moisture are staying nailed to the west and far northwest in a very weak, dry non-event fashion for the 15th. So contrary to yesterday afternoons weather weenie mass seizure episode I'm sticking with the trend of *cold clear bluebird skies for the 15th*, untill the trend changes, and thus far there are no indicators of that.
> 
> I did sharpen a stick overnight to poke any weenie that thinks they can fabricate a 00z euro / gfs precip parallel todsy though. It's even more of a reach now than it already was yesterday.



MC,
I just couldn't resist going back and quoting this, because while you will likely be correct that we won't have a major snow event as the 12z Euro on Monday depicted, I think your initial argument as to why there won't be snow will be as incorrect as the modeling of the snow.  Just couldn't resist


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Never say I don't pay attention to all sources. Thought I'd share this with y'all, but please pay attention to her comment; "nothing set in stone yet".




They seem more optimistic than I would have imagined.


----------



## DDD

Latest model runs is a cold rain. Euro and GFS have all went warm today. 

Oh well...


----------



## RinggoldGa

DDD said:


> Latest model runs is a cold rain. Euro and GFS have all went warm today.
> 
> Oh well...



"Did we give up when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?"


----------



## jbird1




----------



## rjcruiser

RinggoldGa said:


> "Did we give up when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?"



Well...seeing that the German's didn't bomb Pearl Harbor...I'm thinking we're gonna be a cold wet rain.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

DDD said:


> Latest model runs is a cold rain. Euro and GFS have all went warm today.
> 
> Oh well...



It can still change!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> MC,
> I just couldn't resist going back and quoting this, because while you will likely be correct that we won't have a major snow event as the 12z Euro on Monday depicted, I think your initial argument as to why there won't be snow will be as incorrect as the modeling of the snow.  Just couldn't resist



I know right!!!! That dang low pressure put a kaibash on the bluebird skies. 

However, don't get too cocky too quick. The 12z Euro just moved that high causing all of this grief nearly 400 miles further east than it was on yesterday's projections putting the center nearly out into open water. 

This won't reduce the effect of the cold air being shoved up against the Apps and creating CAD for the NE Ga mountains, but it does begin to change the game ever so slightly. This is the very reason I'm saving the 00z Euro runs, because I wasn't sold on their progression of the HPS, and now the 12z hints that they were sandbagging and I might have a chance at some validation to my suspicions. 

Also, since this is a surface high cold air system here is a question I have that I don't have the answer too, but have my suspicions. Cold air being driven across cold land stays pretty much the same temp as it travels, not being effected by any other source. With the high moving out over open water that surface air that will have to travel across many thousands of miles of open Atlantic ocean before being shoved back to the NW over land (SC basically) is crossing surface ocean temps that are 75 degrees well offshore to 52 degrees at the shoreline. What is the adverse effect of cold air interacting with such a warmer liquid surface that holds it's energy (think dewpoint) in a superior manner over simply cold dry air?

Things that I watch and things that make me go HMMMMMM as I am constantly looking at all angles to form a final opinion on what is going to be, verses what might can be.


----------



## RinggoldGa

rjcruiser said:


> Well...seeing that the German's didn't bomb Pearl Harbor...I'm thinking we're gonna be a cold wet rain.



Notice the quotes. You obviously aren't a connoisseur of fine movies like "Animal House".


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Latest model runs is a cold rain. Euro and GFS have all went warm today.
> 
> Oh well...



Still has time to change up but if its not going to change to all snow the cold rain should be welcome instead of freezing rain and ice.....


----------



## MariettaDawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Never say I don't pay attention to all sources. Thought I'd share this with y'all, but please pay attention to her comment; "nothing set in stone yet".


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

FWIW, I am still researching the effect of arctic air moving across warm water. This is the very same mechanism that causes lake effect snow off of the Great Lakes. If that is so, though nobodies talkin bout it yet, that could mean coastal to slightly inland SC and NC could get dumped on. 

Just a thought, just a theory as I strive to broaden my understanding of what "could be"........


----------



## Matt.M

Can the system change direction once onshore?  Better modeling?

We need it to come way south.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> Can the system change direction once onshore?  Better modeling?
> 
> We need it to come way south.



That is a broad non specific question. Are you referring to the High Pressure System providing the Arctic air? or are you referring to the Low Pressure System providing the moisture and precipitation?


----------



## Wade Chandler

MC, I like your question there and think it does bode some further research.  Truly though, models are all over the place still.  Trends (that terrible word) are not in favor of winter weather lovers, but the solutions are still flopping all over the place like a fish out of water.  I don't know what FFC is looking at, but they are out on a limb and must be nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs, because they are being bold with their predictions.  However, I would prefer a cold rain over ice.  We lost power for almost 4 days in the storm last year.  Don't care to do that again.


----------



## Matt.M

miguel cervantes said:


> that is a broad non specific question. Are you referring to the high pressure system providing the arctic air? Or are you referring to the low pressure system providing the moisture and precipitation?



lps.


----------



## fredw

Saw the first nesting pair of ospreys on Lake Oconee today.  They must think spring is near.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

fredw said:


> Saw the first nesting pair of ospreys on Lake Oconee today.  They must think spring is near.



Some of the trees in Suwanee do as well. I saw tender white flowers in a couple trees already this week.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Matt.M said:


> lps.


It could take a lower path which might enhance the strength of the moisture coming in but honestly, without sustainable cold air in place it's still just a cold February rain. The curious thing about this modeling that is going on attempting to get a grip on this entire event, is that even though the HPS was moved considerably further east for the 15th over a 24 hour change in Euro runs, the LPS for the same period over the same two runs stayed virtually stationary over the ArkLaTex corners. No projected movement at all.


----------



## smokey30725

Is winter done, Miguel?


----------



## BROWNING7WSM

DDD said:


> Latest model runs is a cold rain. Euro and GFS have all went warm today.
> 
> Oh well...





thank you for the awesome news


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Is winter done, Miguel?



I never count winter out until we get passed mid March.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I never count winter out until we get passed mid March.



Good. We still haven't been able to break out the sled yet.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Good. We still haven't been able to break out the sled yet.



You have a sled???

Then yes, forgetaboutit! Your winter is done.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD just posted on twitter that Monday looks like mainly rain.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You have a sled???
> 
> Then yes, forgetaboutit! Your winter is done.



Heck, it never really began. A few cold days here and there and a light snow. Everyone acts like we've had arctic weather for 4 months straight.


----------



## Milkman

So was the Ground hogs right


----------



## Jeff Raines

I've watched well over 1000 sandhill cranes headed north today.


----------



## gunnurse

Fantasycast went poof!
Winter is done.
Just waiting on
Warm weather to come.

This Winter is something
That defied the beagles tricks.
Come on Springtime,
Got a garden to fix!


----------



## greg_n_clayton

smokey30725 said:


> ddd just posted on twitter that monday looks like mainly rain.



good !!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

greg_n_clayton said:


> good !!!!



A tv weather person Glynn Burns has now said. Higher elevations in Ga could get a FOOT of snow from storm. Just thought you'd like to know. Clayton Ga is pretty elevated.


----------



## blood on the ground

Jeff Raines said:


> I've watched well over 1000 sandhill cranes headed north today.



It's just winter break


----------



## DEERFU

Where is George Bush's hurricane machine when ya need it? I bet that thing could woop up a proper snow tune if tuned right!


----------



## jbird1

I remember DDD saying Friday was the day to get a good handle on things...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Say you want NWS Skywarn Spotter training but your schedule won't allow you to drive to one of the classes? 

I've had the NWS PTC class twice, and a couple of years ago took this online course from NWS BMX and I'll have to say, though none of them was as comprehensive as the Spotter Network Certificate program, the NWS BMX was the best. 

Sign up now, take it tonight, and understand what you're looking at in the future, especially in those spotter sparse mountain environments. 

Sorry for the last minute notice, but I just now saw it on Twitter. 

Tonight is the class.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=skywarnschedule


----------



## malak05

You have a vast majority of Mets, FFC, and Internet weather men saying bold things about the weather impact during first of the week against most all model guidance solutions in past 24 hours. The are I guess holding onto the CAD idea and it's strength.

The Models trend to my eyes have been to strength the low and take it almost to apps runner which crushes the SE with WAA and rain. Perhaps they don't buy the multiple models Low track, perhaps they believe system will come in faster based of some sort of knowledge that all systems have moved in faster then modeled all winter...I don't know if that thought is valid haven't done the research just trying to figure out what there thought process is? 

I will be glad when all the players on on the field at this point and we can get some actually ground knowledge on who's gonna win this tug of war?

Personally I want a Classic Miller A with a lingering HP block that sticks a big middle finger to the Models and the Mets for once but hey it's just wishing


----------



## nickel back

I say before folks take the jump wait till Saturday and see what the models are calling for. (the models will flip back)just my .02 and gut feeling


----------



## nickel back

malak05 said:


> You have a vast majority of Mets, FFC, and Internet weather men saying bold things about the weather impact during first of the week against most all model guidance solutions in past 24 hours. The are I guess holding onto the CAD idea and it's strength.
> 
> The Models trend to my eyes have been to strength the low and take it almost to apps runner which crushes the SE with WAA and rain. Perhaps they don't buy the multiple models Low track, perhaps they believe system will come in faster based of some sort of knowledge that all systems have moved in faster then modeled all winter...I don't know if that thought is valid haven't done the research just trying to figure out what there thought process is?
> 
> I will be glad when all the players on on the field at this point and we can get some actually ground knowledge on who's gonna win this tug of war?
> 
> Personally I want a Classic Miller A with a lingering HP block that sticks a big middle finger to the Models and the Mets for once but hey it's just wishing



The wishing sure would be nice to see though


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> I say before folks take the jump wait till Saturday and see what the models are calling for. (the models will flip back)just my .02 and gut feeling



Wanna bet?


----------



## mewabbithunter

This winter weather thread is intense! It's better than watching reality tv or soaps!
As the weather turns.


----------



## jf950y

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Say you want NWS Skywarn Spotter training but your schedule won't allow you to drive to one of the classes?
> 
> I've had the NWS PTC class twice, and a couple of years ago took this online course from NWS BMX and I'll have to say, though none of them was as comprehensive as the Spotter Network Certificate program, the NWS BMX was the best.
> 
> Sign up now, take it tonight, and understand what you're looking at in the future, especially in those spotter sparse mountain environments.
> 
> Sorry for the last minute notice, but I just now saw it on Twitter.
> 
> Tonight is the class.
> 
> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=skywarnschedule



Where can I find the schedule for other classes? Can't make tonight.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Brad Nitz said it's "complicated" forecasting Monday/Tuesday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jf950y said:


> Where can I find the schedule for other classes? Can't make tonight.



On that same link.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> Brad Nitz said it's "complicated" forecasting Monday/Tuesday.



That's professional code language for; "We're back peddling".


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Bump, there's still time left. They're an hour behind us.



Miguel Cervantes said:


> Say you want NWS Skywarn Spotter training but your schedule won't allow you to drive to one of the classes?
> 
> I've had the NWS PTC class twice, and a couple of years ago took this online course from NWS BMX and I'll have to say, though none of them was as comprehensive as the Spotter Network Certificate program, the NWS BMX was the best.
> 
> Sign up now, take it tonight, and understand what you're looking at in the future, especially in those spotter sparse mountain environments.
> 
> Sorry for the last minute notice, but I just now saw it on Twitter.
> 
> Tonight is the class.
> 
> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=skywarnschedule


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Wanna bet?



Don't think so....


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> Don't think so....



if it snows 6 in atl you can do a bama avatar for 2 weeks


----------



## PappyHoel

my local says - Snow Likely
then Wintry
Mix Likely

70% chance 

Translated means - cold rain


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Man I love the NAM!!! 

Hey Wade!!! The NAM just came in range and I might get my bluebird skies afterall.


----------



## jbird1

Oh wow..


----------



## smokey30725

Interpret this for the dummies!!!!


----------



## georgiaboy0311

The people demand Barney style this instant!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Interpret this for the dummies!!!!



Picture #1 - there's a High where the evil moisture laden Low is suppose to be, according the Euro. 

Picture #2 - there's not grey, green or pink stuff over the heart of Dixie, aka bluebird clear blue skies. 

This is fixin to get real interestin... (we need a cowboy dancin in our smilie collection)


----------



## hmaddox

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Picture #1 - there's a High where the evil moisture laden Low is suppose to be, according the Euro.
> 
> Picture #2 - there's not grey, green or pink stuff over the heart of Dixie, aka bluebird clear blue skies.
> 
> This is fixin to get real interestin... (we need a cowboy dancin in our smilie collection)



Interesting - these new models are saying absolutely nothing but blue skies and no rain/frozen precip for Sun/Mon?


----------



## smokey30725

Gotcha.


----------



## georgiaboy0311

So it's gone from possibility of snow to possibility of ice to possibility of not producing anything...that's just grand


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

hmaddox said:


> Interesting - these new models are saying absolutely nothing but blue skies and no rain/frozen precip for Sun/Mon?



The NAM. It only projects 5 days out, thus it just came into range. However it is only one model of several. So........ agreement among all products has yet to be achieved.


----------



## DDD

Yep... Unless the EURO saves the day, this is going to be cold air followed by cold rain followed by warming temps.


----------



## smokey30725

Are we officially done, DDD?


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Are we officially done, DDD?



Not going to throw the towel in yet, but it's not looking good.


----------



## smokey30725

Any long range teases right now?


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Any long range teases right now?



Not really.  There is some cold mornings but it warms quickly each day.


----------



## smokey30725

Well that's just plain depressing


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Well that's just plain depressing



Y'all don't give up just yet. Mid March hasn't arrived yet.


----------



## TBean95

DDD said:


> Not going to throw the towel in yet, but it's not looking good.



DDD....My kids are out of school next week and we are considering chasing the wintry stuff.  How far north would we need to go to get a good snow?  Thanks for everything you do.


----------



## blood on the ground

Let's fast forward to severe weather....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Let's fast forward to severe weather....



Music to my ears. Sing it brother!!!


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Music to my ears. Sing it brother!!!



Let's chase this spring


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Let's chase this spring



You drivin? I've found that watchin the radar and navigating is tough to do while driving.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You drivin? I've found that watchin the radar and navigating is tough to do while driving.



Only if we can install a Dixie horn on the chase vehicle before we leave... They will know us when we roll thru town!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Only if we can install a Dixie horn on the chase vehicle before we leave... They will know us when we roll thru town!



Dukes of Hazard Storm Chasers


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dukes of Hazard Storm Chasers



Absolutely... 

You ever sleep bro?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Absolutely...
> 
> You ever sleep bro?



Waiting on the 00z Euro run. Then its zzzzzzz


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD will be happy if the 00z Nam holds for  the morning runs. The GFS still has to get back in the game but the 00z kept the high locked in. If this is a move towards agreement among products this event might not be dead yet. 

Craziest series of model runs I've ever seen


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> DDD will be happy if the 00z Nam holds for  the morning runs. The GFS still has to get back in the game but the 00z kept the high locked in. If this is a move towards agreement among products this event might not be dead yet.
> 
> Craziest series of model runs I've ever seen




....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> ....



What? You wanted a DOA announcement?


----------



## RinggoldGa

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What? You wanted a DOA announcement?



The Canadian lost its mind?


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> What? You wanted a DOA announcement?



Nah.....

have no worries, the way this one is going, its like a fish out of water.


----------



## DDD

OK. Let's be clear all of the models shifted south last night. If that trend continues I would say that the typical CAD regions are in for a  possible ice storm. Anytime I start to see all of the models trend a certain way I have to sit up and pay attention. 

 The Canadian modeling last night would be snow for the mountains and ice from Northeast Atlanta over to Athens and all of your typical CAD Regions.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> DDD will be happy if the 00z Nam holds for  the morning runs. The GFS still has to get back in the game but the 00z kept the high locked in. If this is a move towards agreement among products this event might not be dead yet.
> 
> Craziest series of model runs I've ever seen



 The reason why it is so crazy is because none of the models know what to do with the strong CAD and trying to slam the low-pressure right into it. It hardly ever works that way it will have to go south or it will have to go north. Usually it goes north.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> Cold rain flop



One would think. 

While waiting on the 00z Euro to run I found this retweet by Ryan Maue on Twitter. To preface, these guys are in another league all together when it comes to weather. Bigger than Wx Nerds, Geeks or Junkies, and way above the average Pro Mets. They are close to Weather god status when it comes to laying the smack down on the why of what's gonna happen. 

This one tweet caused me to do some diggin and readin cause it's not something we hear in STS forecasting, ever. Or at least not that I can remember. DDD might be more familiar with the term, but I can't say I've ever encountered it. I mean by this point in the game on a severe setup DDD or I are at a point where we can tell you without fail that you need to start diggin a hole. This is the craziest pattern to forecast here I've ever seen. Even in 09'-10' we had it nailed weeks before it happened, it was just so stinking solid. 

The term is Tropopause 
Basically, the Troposphere, being the lowest level of atmosphere that caps out from 30k ft (200mb ish) to 55+k ft. That my friends is way the heck up there. If you'll look at this map off of WeatherBell that Eric Fisher offered up, and his comment, it is easy to understand why this High Pressure System is such an anomaly and so difficult to nail down (trend) During this "tropopause" the tropo / strato line is going to be diving down to around 750mb or 10k ft-ish in altitude 

That isn't just arctic air, that is (point of reference here) just below where the Space Shuttle orbited and right on the edge of where the SR-71 flew. Stinkin cold as icicle snot is what that is. And it's going to be dive bombing the Eastern US the next day or two forcing some serious cold air compression over our territory. 

Check this out! Hopefully DDD can elaborate more on this phenomena.


----------



## orrb

OK, Well everyone keeps saying South Paulding will not be impacted.  My 18 year old has to drive into work on Monday morn and my husband leaves at 5am on Monday.  Is it going to be safe for them to go so early. Or should I tell them to stay home.  

I am so confused, We are on the west side just above I-20.  I guess, I am going to get a some food and preps just in case? 

I know you said no IMBY,   But I am concerned for my family. 

Thank you, guys, Very much for everything you do..


----------



## DDD

orrb said:


> OK, Well everyone keeps saying South Paulding will not be impacted.  My 18 year old has to drive into work on Monday morn and my husband leaves at 5am on Monday.  Is it going to be safe for them to go so early. Or should I tell them to stay home.
> 
> I am so confused, We are on the west side just above I-20.  I guess, I am going to get a some food and preps just in case?
> 
> I know you said no IMBY,   But I am concerned for my family.
> 
> Thank you, guys, Very much for everything you do..



At this point I would say that side of the state will be mostly rain. 

If anyone is going to see any winter precip out of this it will be the mountains and the NE CAD, wedge regions.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One would think.
> 
> While waiting on the 00z Euro to run I found this retweet by Ryan Maue on Twitter. To preface, these guys are in another league all together when it comes to weather. Bigger than Wx Nerds, Geeks or Junkies, and way above the average Pro Mets. They are close to Weather god status when it comes to laying the smack down on the why of what's gonna happen.
> 
> This one tweet caused me to do some diggin and readin cause it's not something we hear in STS forecasting, ever. Or at least not that I can remember. DDD might be more familiar with the term, but I can't say I've ever encountered it. I mean by this point in the game on a severe setup DDD or I are at a point where we can tell you without fail that you need to start diggin a hole. This is the craziest pattern to forecast here I've ever seen. Even in 09'-10' we had it nailed weeks before it happened, it was just so stinking solid.
> 
> The term is Tropopause
> Basically, the Troposphere, being the lowest level of atmosphere that caps out from 30k ft (200mb ish) to 55+k ft. That my friends is way the heck up there. If you'll look at this map off of WeatherBell that Eric Fisher offered up, and his comment, it is easy to understand why this High Pressure System is such an anomaly and so difficult to nail down (trend) During this "tropopause" the tropo / strato line is going to be diving down to around 750mb or 10k ft-ish in altitude
> 
> That isn't just arctic air, that is (point of reference here) just below where the Space Shuttle orbited and right on the edge of where the SR-71 flew. Stinkin cold as icicle snot is what that is. And it's going to be dive bombing the Eastern US the next day or two forcing some serious cold air compression over our territory.
> 
> Check this out! Hopefully DDD can elaborate more on this phenomena.



Ahhh,that is crazy, kinda reminds of a movie I saw but can't think of the name....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> Ahhh,that is crazy, kinda reminds of a movie I saw but can't think of the name....



Icenado's?


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One would think.
> 
> While waiting on the 00z Euro to run I found this retweet by Ryan Maue on Twitter. To preface, these guys are in another league all together when it comes to weather. Bigger than Wx Nerds, Geeks or Junkies, and way above the average Pro Mets. They are close to Weather god status when it comes to laying the smack down on the why of what's gonna happen.
> 
> This one tweet caused me to do some diggin and readin cause it's not something we hear in STS forecasting, ever. Or at least not that I can remember. DDD might be more familiar with the term, but I can't say I've ever encountered it. I mean by this point in the game on a severe setup DDD or I are at a point where we can tell you without fail that you need to start diggin a hole. This is the craziest pattern to forecast here I've ever seen. Even in 09'-10' we had it nailed weeks before it happened, it was just so stinking solid.
> 
> The term is Tropopause
> Basically, the Troposphere, being the lowest level of atmosphere that caps out from 30k ft (200mb ish) to 55+k ft. That my friends is way the heck up there. If you'll look at this map off of WeatherBell that Eric Fisher offered up, and his comment, it is easy to understand why this High Pressure System is such an anomaly and so difficult to nail down (trend) During this "tropopause" the tropo / strato line is going to be diving down to around 750mb or 10k ft-ish in altitude
> 
> That isn't just arctic air, that is (point of reference here) just below where the Space Shuttle orbited and right on the edge of where the SR-71 flew. Stinkin cold as icicle snot is what that is. And it's going to be dive bombing the Eastern US the next day or two forcing some serious cold air compression over our territory.
> 
> Check this out! Hopefully DDD can elaborate more on this phenomena.



I heard it two days ago and thought it was a dinosaur. 

Yes, the low level cold / cold in general is not going to be handled well at all. It almost gives credit to the Canadian model which verbatim would be an ice storm of bad proportions to the typical cad regions and over NE Atlanta. 

I always say and you know this, day 3 is the day of reckoning. Models don't tend to shift a whole lot inside of this time frame.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I always say and you know this, day 3 is the day of reckoning. Models don't tend to shift a whole lot inside of this time frame.


Man I certainly hope they solidify today. I can't take a lot more of that Catfish feller pokin at me.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Wintry mix falling in Bville right now.  Started as a little rain with sleet, then mostly sleet, now mostly snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> At this point I would say that side of the state will be mostly rain.
> 
> If anyone is going to see any winter precip out of this it will be the mountains and the NE CAD, wedge regions.



Here's a visual of what he's sayin. The GFS is having the most trouble resolving the CAD. The EURO and NAM are all in now, as well as is the GEM so 3 out of 4 is watching the jello solidify. 

*Disclaimer here:* The day of, or even the evening before the event for local IMBY information and for you and your loved ones safety, please reference your local Mets and stations, GDOT for road conditions, etc. They are the ones that will be spending countless / sleepless hours keeping up with the details on that stuff. Not us. 

Now, here's the pink stuff, the next map is the blue n gray stuff. (potentially, nothing is set in stone until it happens, aka ground truth from you guys) Sorry NCHillbilly. It's not lookin good for your neck of the woods either way you approach it.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Icenado's?





It was ,The Day After Tomorrow, it had Dennis Quaid in it.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> It was ,The Day After Tomorrow, it had Dennis Quaid in it.


I remember that movie. It was a very UGLY scenario..

But then again, the day after tomorrow we may be back to bluebird clear cold skies as jumpy as these models are

Naw, here's the GEM PTYPE map, it probably most clearly illustrates what is most likely and where right now. Even brings the freezing rain all the way down to Gwinnett and Walton. 
But the west side is just a cold rain event. 

Let's hope that doesn't happen. (in gwinnett and walton that is)


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

nickel back said:


> Ahhh,that is crazy, kinda reminds of a movie I saw but can't think of the name....



The day after tommorow was the name of the movie. Where the Stratosphere dropped to ground level and froze everything instantly


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I remember that movie. It was a very UGLY scenario..
> 
> But then again, the day after tomorrow we may be back to bluebird clear cold skies as jumpy as these models are
> 
> Naw, here's the GEM PTYPE map, it probably most clearly illustrates what is most likely and where right now. Even brings the freezing rain all the way down to Gwinnett and Walton.
> But the west side is just a cold rain event.
> 
> Let's hope that doesn't happen. (in gwinnett and walton that is)



fish out of water....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> The day after tommorow was the name of the movie. Where the Stratosphere dropped to ground level and froze everything instantly



Think about this then, to help wrap your brain around just how rare this weekends phenomenon is. 

Brasstown Bald sits dead on 850mb in pressure altitude (give or take a little for air density, humidity and such which is usually 100ft +/-)

The upper limits of the Troposphere, which is marginally approaching the lower limits of the Stratosphere will be coming in at 750mb (according to Eric Fisher) 700mb being around 9,900 ft in pressure altitude. So we're only talking the Stratosphere being a couple thousand feet above the peak observation point of Brasstown Bald (if it were to dive down this far) The wind friction noise alone would be unreal from that vantage point. And it would be whistling through your brain if you were on the platform on Clingman's Dome. 

There's some seriously cool stuff to teach your kids about this weekends cold weather.


----------



## blood on the ground

I'm skeared an afraid I will get iced in with the maw-n-law and her yapping dawg!


----------



## toyota4x4h

Maybe I make a trip to brasstown sunday to see this thing for myself then huh!?


----------



## malak05

Miguel Cervantes said:


> One would think.
> 
> While waiting on the 00z Euro to run I found this retweet by Ryan Maue on Twitter. To preface, these guys are in another league all together when it comes to weather. Bigger than Wx Nerds, Geeks or Junkies, and way above the average Pro Mets. They are close to Weather god status when it comes to laying the smack down on the why of what's gonna happen.
> 
> This one tweet caused me to do some diggin and readin cause it's not something we hear in STS forecasting, ever. Or at least not that I can remember. DDD might be more familiar with the term, but I can't say I've ever encountered it. I mean by this point in the game on a severe setup DDD or I are at a point where we can tell you without fail that you need to start diggin a hole. This is the craziest pattern to forecast here I've ever seen. Even in 09'-10' we had it nailed weeks before it happened, it was just so stinking solid.
> 
> The term is Tropopause
> Basically, the Troposphere, being the lowest level of atmosphere that caps out from 30k ft (200mb ish) to 55+k ft. That my friends is way the heck up there. If you'll look at this map off of WeatherBell that Eric Fisher offered up, and his comment, it is easy to understand why this High Pressure System is such an anomaly and so difficult to nail down (trend) During this "tropopause" the tropo / strato line is going to be diving down to around 750mb or 10k ft-ish in altitude
> 
> That isn't just arctic air, that is (point of reference here) just below where the Space Shuttle orbited and right on the edge of where the SR-71 flew. Stinkin cold as icicle snot is what that is. And it's going to be dive bombing the Eastern US the next day or two forcing some serious cold air compression over our territory.
> 
> Check this out! Hopefully DDD can elaborate more on this phenomena.




Yeah that's a whole other level of model analyzing haha


----------



## smokey30725

Man, this one is turning out to be quite the roller coaster ride.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> I'm skeared an afraid I will get iced in with the maw-n-law and her yapping dawg!



Set her up a cot on the front porch.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Think about this then, to help wrap your brain around just how rare this weekends phenomenon is.
> 
> Brasstown Bald sits dead on 850mb in pressure altitude (give or take a little for air density, humidity and such which is usually 100ft +/-)
> 
> The upper limits of the Troposphere, which is marginally approaching the lower limits of the Stratosphere will be coming in at 750mb (according to Eric Fisher) 700mb being around 9,900 ft in pressure altitude. So we're only talking the Stratosphere being a couple thousand feet above the peak observation point of Brasstown Bald (if it were to dive down this far) The wind friction noise alone would be unreal from that vantage point. And it would be whistling through your brain if you were on the platform on Clingman's Dome.
> 
> There's some seriously cool stuff to teach your kids about this weekends cold weather.


Now that's some serious cold!


----------



## smokey30725

Looks like all the models shown here give NW Georgia a little something. I just hope that comes in the form of snow and not ice.


----------



## jbird1

We laugh about weather rocks but this could genuinely be a weather rock type of storm.


----------



## smokey30725

jbird1 said:


> We laugh about weather rocks but this could genuinely be a weather rock type of storm.



that's what worries me. The local tv mets aren't making a very big deal about it and I hope that doesn't lull everyone into complacency. Thankfully, school is out on Monday so we won't have that factor. I'll take rain or snow, but no ice, please.


----------



## toyota4x4h

I looked on the Chattanooga channel 9 7 day outlook they have highs on sun 41 and 43 on Monday lol. Rain here per them. Just gimme 3-4" and im good for rest of the year and can welcome spring!


----------



## shakey gizzard

jbird1 said:


> We laugh about weather rocks but this could genuinely be a weather rock type of storm.



My weather rock is my knee!


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> that's what worries me. The local tv mets aren't making a very big deal about it and I hope that doesn't lull everyone into complacency. Thankfully, school is out on Monday so we won't have that factor. I'll take rain or snow, but no ice, please.



Yeah Forsyth County is out Mon.-Tues.....we will be waking up in Downtown Blue Ridge Monday morning..


----------



## jbird1

shakey gizzard said:


> My weather rock is my knee!


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> that's what worries me. The local tv mets aren't making a very big deal about it and I hope that doesn't lull everyone into complacency. Thankfully, school is out on Monday so we won't have that factor. I'll take rain or snow, but no ice, please.



I've seen some other mainstream forecasts go from frozen stuff in varying forms for over 60% of the day down to just 6% of the day early in the morning with the rest rain in Buford. 

Something doesn't jive.


----------



## Crakajak

shakey gizzard said:


> My weather rock is my knee!



Whats it predicting?


----------



## jbird1

Time to break out those old family heirloom rocks...


----------



## smokey30725

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I've seen some other mainstream forecasts go from frozen stuff in varying forms for over 60% of the day down to just 6% of the day early in the morning with the rest rain in Buford.
> 
> Something doesn't jive.



I agree. My gut tells me something is amiss. To be fair, that could be the weather or that could be the sausage and egg biscuit I had for breakfast.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

smokey30725 said:


> I agree. My gut tells me something is amiss. To be fair, that could be the weather or that could be the sausage and egg biscuit I had for breakfast.



I'm going with them erring on the side of caution and not catching the CAD, like has been mentioned here before. I didn't have a biscuit this morning, so I'll have to find somethign else to blame if I'm mistaken.


----------



## smokey30725

I've got propane coming on Monday morning. A full 250 gallon tank will give me 5 days of backup power should the models shift and bury us.


----------



## Milkman

Miguel Cervantes said:


> *Disclaimer here:* The day of, or even the evening before the event for local IMBY information and for you and your loved ones safety, please reference your local Mets and stations, GDOT for road conditions, etc. They are the ones that will be spending countless / sleepless hours keeping up with the details on that stuff. Not us.



Sage advice here, even if it is from MC 

Folks don't need to be asking on here whether to send kids to school or not.  Heck I have even read folks asking  if they should drive the 4wd or 2 wd to work................. really ??? 

IMO the guys posting up info in these threads are doing just that...... posting info.   Decisions based on that information are an individual thing.  (stepping off stump)


----------



## GA DAWG

Aint gonna do nothing.


----------



## nickel back

GA DAWG said:


> Aint gonna do nothing.



yes it is, its called a cold rain. I hope the cad areas warm up also, no since in wishing for Ice/freezing rain.


----------



## RinggoldGa

I do find it humorous that in 2016, some 45 years after we put man on the moon, we have billion dollar satellites in orbit, more technology in our phones than the best computers in the world had 25 years ago, most of the world's information available for download in the "cloud" . . .  . .  and yet there is still incredible uncertainty in predicting the weather.  

Puts us as humans back in our place a little bit.  Mother nature will not be accurately predicted with a high level of precision a lot of the time.


----------



## smokey30725

Anxious to see what the next model runs indicate. This thread may go nuts today.


----------



## crackerdave

RinggoldGa said:


> I do find it humorous that in 2016, some 45 years after we put man on the moon, we have billion dollar satellites in orbit, more technology in our phones than the best computers in the world had 25 years ago, most of the world's information available for download in the "cloud" . . .  . .  and yet there is still incredible uncertainty in predicting the weather.
> 
> Puts us as humans back in our place a little bit.  Mother nature will not be accurately predicted with a high level of precision a lot of the time.



Good post!
With all our electronical gadgetry,God is always in full control.


----------



## snookdoctor

RinggoldGa said:


> I do find it humorous that in 2016, some 45 years after we put man on the moon, we have billion dollar satellites in orbit, more technology in our phones than the best computers in the world had 25 years ago, most of the world's information available for download in the "cloud" . . .  . .  and yet there is still incredible uncertainty in predicting the weather.
> 
> Puts us as humans back in our place a little bit.  Mother nature will not be accurately predicted with a high level of precision a lot of the time.



That's a woman for ya.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> I do find it humorous that in 2016, some 45 years after we put man on the moon, we have billion dollar satellites in orbit, more technology in our phones than the best computers in the world had 25 years ago, most of the world's information available for download in the "cloud" . . .  . .  and yet there is still incredible uncertainty in predicting the weather.
> 
> Puts us as humans back in our place a little bit.  Mother nature will not be accurately predicted with a high level of precision a lot of the time.



CAD is not predictable, in so much as how strong and how far down the Apps it will run. I don't care what kind of TI2000 you use.  

In contrast, look at weather forecasting 30 years ago, especially severe weather forecasting. We have come a long ways in the ability to understand the different levels of the atmosphere and how they interact to effect weather. Winter wx is just one of those beast here in the southeast that is effected by so many different factors it is like herding cats.


----------



## hmaddox

RinggoldGa said:


> I do find it humorous that in 2016, some 45 years after we put man on the moon, we have billion dollar satellites in orbit, more technology in our phones than the best computers in the world had 25 years ago, most of the world's information available for download in the "cloud" . . .  . .  and yet there is still incredible uncertainty in predicting the weather.
> 
> Puts us as humans back in our place a little bit.  Mother nature will not be accurately predicted with a high level of precision a lot of the time.



Yep, as we know in the south, magic is hard to track with a computer!


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> CAD is not predictable, in so much as how strong and how far down the Apps it will run. I don't care what kind of TI2000 you use.
> 
> In contrast, look at weather forecasting 30 years ago, especially severe weather forecasting. We have come a long ways in the ability to understand the different levels of the atmosphere and how they interact to effect weather. Winter wx is just one of those beast here in the southeast that is effected by so many different factors it is like herding cats.



Meanwhile, over at the DDD / Cervantes Fortress of Weathertude:


----------



## jbird1

^^

That little black one must be the GFS...hehe


----------



## sbfowler

Mellish posted a blog this morn with his thoughts:
http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kir...e-storm-not-expected-monday-uncertainty-rema/


----------



## GA DAWG

The bluebird sky's will surely win out.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> The bluebird sky's will surely win out.



On Thursday.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

sbfowler said:


> Mellish posted a blog this morn with his thoughts:
> http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kir...e-storm-not-expected-monday-uncertainty-rema/



That is an excellent synopsis of what may happen. My only raised eyebrow is over his quotations re: "scour out" the CAD with warm moist gulf air. Yes that can and will eventually take over, but the when is determined by how strong and deep the CAD is or isn't, and how deep the warm moist gulf air is or isn't. Because that very factor of warm moist gulf air coming in overriding the CAD is exactly what makes this a freezing rain event. I even eluded to as much in the beginning when I was all in for the bluebird clear sky camp. 

Timing is everything in these events and near impossible to forecast.


----------



## parisinthe20s

I'm still crossing my fingers for a little bit of snow. You gotta keep the dream alive.


----------



## doenightmare

parisinthe20s said:


> I'm still crossing my fingers for a little bit of snow. You gotta keep the dream alive.



Love your optimism Paris. Miggy has turned me into a negative Nelly.


----------



## snarlinbear

doenightmare said:


> Love your optimism Paris. Miggy has turned me into a negative Nelly.



Hey Neighbor:  Im thinking of putting a space suit on my  dog and seeing if he can do a "sinking troposphere" dance to trump Smokey's beagles!  What ya think?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

doenightmare said:


> Love your optimism Paris. Miggy has turned me into a negative Nelly.



You're a GT fan, you're used to it.


----------



## smokey30725

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're a GT fan, you're used to it.



Oh my......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

February 12th, 2014, my front yard. 

Ice Ice Baby! Bom Bom Bom dada Bombom.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Is the poot gone with da wind yet?



I can hear the pine limbs poppin like it was yesterday, then eventually you hear the distant ZZZZZZTTT ZZZZZZZZZZTTTT with that iridescent blue glow in the sky, and then darkness. Nothing but the crackling of frozen pine needles in the wind and more POW, CRACK, POW as more limbs hit the ground. 

Ah yes, the good ol days.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can hear the pine limbs poppin like it was yesterday, then eventually you hear the distant ZZZZZZTTT ZZZZZZZZZZTTTT with that iridescent blue glow in the sky, and then darkness. Nothing but the crackling of frozen pine needles in the wind and more POW, CRACK, POW as more limbs hit the ground.
> 
> Ah yes, the good ol days.



Yeah, that was my wife's first real experience with an ice storm and it really freaked her out. 

Sorry, I was trying to humorously ask if this Monday event is still looking like it's going to be ice or if it's gone to cold rain.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I can hear the pine limbs poppin like it was yesterday, then eventually you hear the distant ZZZZZZTTT ZZZZZZZZZZTTTT with that iridescent blue glow in the sky, and then darkness. Nothing but the crackling of frozen pine needles in the wind and more POW, CRACK, POW as more limbs hit the ground.
> 
> Ah yes, the good ol days.



That was the craziest night ever.. I will go south and get a hotel until its all over.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> Yeah, that was my wife's first real experience with an ice storm and it really freaked her out.
> 
> Sorry, I was trying to humorously ask if this Monday event is still looking like it's going to be ice or if it's gone to cold rain.



Still on the verge. 

When you made that comment all I could visualize was the comment from the PF; "pootin in the bathtub and bitin the bubbles".


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Still on the verge.
> 
> When you made that comment all I could visualize was the comment from the PF; "pootin in the bathtub and bitin the bubbles".



That was a goot un.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Oh no!!! Not the briar patch!!!


----------



## GA DAWG

Looks like those in the Cad area are gonna get it. It being all kinds of ice. Pappy and jbird1. Yall are in the cad area. I escaped it I think.


----------



## nickel back

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/Briefings/20160212_2pm_WinterwxBriefing.pdf


----------



## StriperrHunterr

nickel back said:


> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/Briefings/20160212_2pm_WinterwxBriefing.pdf



I think they drew that arrow to point at my house.


----------



## nickel back

StripeRR HunteRR said:


> I think they drew that arrow to point at my house.



It could flip flop again before it is all said and done.....


----------



## StriperrHunterr

nickel back said:


> It could flip flop again before it is all said and done.....



I'm sure. I try not to take anything as gospel until it's fallen, but the amounts of ice they're calling for would be no fun even for that short of time.


----------



## 3ringer

If there was ever a nowcast storm , this storm is it.


----------



## Resica

1 degree here this morning. A little chilly.


----------



## smokey30725

I'm sure the model runs tonight will either confirm what today's did or we will be off to the races on another goose chase.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> I'm sure the model runs tonight will either confirm what today's did or we will be off to the races on another goose chase.



All of the above will be true. I'm going to pick up a weather rock this afternoon. It will be the only reliable source.


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> All of the above will be true. I'm going to pick up a weather rock this afternoon. It will be the only reliable source.



I have plenty if anyone needs them.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Set her up a cot on the front porch.



Dang good idea Miggy! Thanks bro... !


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crakajak said:


> I have plenty if anyone needs them.



I smell a business opportunity.


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I smell a business opportunity.



Rocks are freee.Standard shipping and handling apply.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Crakajak said:


> Rocks are freee.Standard shipping and handling apply.



Can we deliver them via the Ernest T. Bass method?


----------



## GA DAWG

Weather Rocks forsale. Nice uns! Pm me for prices


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Crakajak said:


> Rocks are freee.Standard shipping and handling apply.



2nd day air available, liability waiver required.


----------



## Crakajak

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Can we deliver them via the Ernest T. Bass method?



Billys on board.


----------



## hmaddox

Interesting - I do a refresh every couple of hours - and it has changed everytime for Sun/Mon/Tue.  Freezing precip keeps increasing esp Monday for us:  http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...ite=FFC&lat=34.0599&lon=-84.6755#.Vr5NepMrJn7


----------



## smokey30725

We can be certain of this much: there's a lot of uncertainty and we can't be certain about anything at this point.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> We can be certain of this much: there's a lot of uncertainty and we can't be certain about anything at this point.



Normally that type comment in a weather thread would be considered drivel and stirring the pot instead of staying on topic. However, for this system, it is spot on the money, dead center 10 ring.


----------



## GA DAWG

Been that way for all systems this yr best I can recall. Who predicted All the snow they got this morning in northeast Ga? The weather rock did.


----------



## DDD

I will post about the upcoming threat tonight. Lots to talk about and discuss.


----------



## hmaddox

DDD said:


> I will post about the upcoming threat tonight. Lots to talk about and discuss.



Hot Dang!  DDD is going to give us the low down!


----------



## jbird1




----------



## swamppirate

nickel back said:


> I bet, you should see some good snow up there from this storm...



They are calling for it to start as snow then sleet then pretty quickly turning to rain. Next Saturday in the 60's....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


>



Super Chicken?


----------



## shakey gizzard

Should I start delimbing my pines? I have a 40 ft and a 28ft ladder I can tie together!


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Super Chicken?



What??  This is riveting!...I'm being patient and waiting for knowledge to be dropped.  I'm like a sponge.


----------



## swamppirate

shakey gizzard said:


> Should I start delimbing my pines? I have a 40 ft and a 28ft ladder I can tie together!



That would be a good Allstate commercial right there!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> What??  This is riveting!...I'm being patient and waiting for knowledge to be dropped.  I'm like a sponge.



From hence forth ye shall be dubbed Sir Luffa....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Should I start delimbing my pines? I have a 40 ft and a 28ft ladder I can tie together!



Just cut the biggest fattest limb that goes straight up, about 6 inches off of the ground should do. No ladders required.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> Looks like those in the Cad area are gonna get it. It being all kinds of ice. Pappy and jbird1. Yall are in the cad area. I escaped it I think.



Unless you moved West of Canton, you're in it with us.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> From hence forth ye shall be dubbed Sir Luffa....



Copy that.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Pourin' snow here right now, as usual.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Y'all are gonna like DDD's update looking past this trivial little event coming up. He and I have been bumping heads (figuratively) over the potential. Got me giddy as a kid on Christmas Eve.


----------



## shakey gizzard

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just cut the biggest fattest limb that goes straight up, about 6 inches off of the ground should do. No ladders required.



Is that like cutting the tail off, right behind the head?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

shakey gizzard said:


> Is that like cutting the tail off, right behind the head?



Persactly


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> Pourin' snow here right now, as usual.



Man I hope it stays all snow and doesn't turn into that ice stuff.


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all are gonna like DDD's update looking past this trivial little event coming up. He and I have been bumping heads (figuratively) over the potential. Got me giddy as a kid on Christmas Eve.



 

I'm going to have to post the forest gump reference picture.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Man I hope it stays all snow and doesn't turn into that ice stuff.



You and me both.


----------



## GA DAWG

I been on facebook on all the other weather gurus sight talking bout my weather rock business that I stole from yall. They are not as chipper about em there.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GA DAWG said:


> I been on facebook on all the other weather gurus sight talking bout my weather rock business that I stole from yall. They are not as chopper about em there.



They're a bunch of egotistical buzz kills. Never mind them, head on over the the swap n sell and set up shop.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all are gonna like DDD's update looking past this trivial little event coming up. He and I have been bumping heads (figuratively) over the potential. Got me giddy as a kid on Christmas Eve.


Maybe I should have taken that bet....


----------



## Matthew6

nickel back said:


> Maybe I should have taken that bet....


bet i get more snow than you do. wanna do a avy bet


----------



## nickel back

Matthew6 said:


> bet i get more snow than you do. wanna do a avy bet



Heck no, I know I'm in the cold rain....lol


----------



## JonathanG2013

Miguel are you talking about being excited about potential thunder snow?


----------



## UBER-DIESEL




----------



## klfutrelle

Bring on the ice storm!!===$$$$$$ to me!!


----------



## RUTTNBUCK

Matthew6 said:


> bet i get more snow than you do. wanna do a avy bet


No AVY bets in the weather forum!!.......I've seen what you sports forum guys have done in the past!!


----------



## nickel back

DDD must of jumped off the cliff....


----------



## smokey30725

He's having fun on Twitter right now, lol.


----------



## DDD

No update tonight.  Going to hold off until the morning and then lower the boom.


----------



## shakey gizzard

I'm down wit one more winter hoe , who , ha dad!


----------



## DDD

UBER-DIESEL said:


> View attachment 866560


----------



## smokey30725

Don't leave us hanging!! We need info!!!


----------



## nickel back

smokey30725 said:


> Don't leave us hanging!! We need info!!!



Just go with a cold rain and of you get snow it's a plus


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> Don't leave us hanging!! We need info!!!



I'm low tech but I jumped around to the TV Mets twitter pages and am seeing statements like "not a lot of variance in the models."...."maybe a glazing to 1/4" but could be all rain."..."the models show freezing rain area has expanded West,"..."snow for the mountains has shifted a little East."

Anyway, go to David Chandley and Glenn Burns twitter pages.  They updated a few hours ago.  Everyone, including DDD I'm sure, wants to see more model runs...imo.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> No update tonight.  Going to hold off until the morning and then lower the boom.



I see whst you did there


----------



## PappyHoel

Looks like cold rain


----------



## DRB1313

DDD said:


> I will post about the upcoming threat tonight. Lots to talk about and discuss.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> Y'all are gonna like DDD's update looking past this trivial little event coming up. He and I have been bumping heads (figuratively) over the potential. Got me giddy as a kid on Christmas Eve.





DDD said:


> No update tonight.  Going to hold off until the morning and then lower the boom.


I am searching the rules now, this has to constitute an infraction of some sort


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DRB1313 said:


> I am searching the rules now, this has to constitute an infraction of some sort



Maybe so, but I am happy you posted so I had something else to look at other than the scary avatar in that other fellas post. Yours is much more pleasing to the eye.


----------



## the prospector

DDD just tweeted....probably warming up his typing fingers.


----------



## jbird1

DRB1313 said:


> I am searching the rules now, this has to constitute an infraction of some sort



I guess the joke was on us.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

the prospector said:


> DDD just tweeted....probably warming up his typing fingers.


You have no idea.


----------



## DDD

the prospector said:


> DDD just tweeted....probably warming up his typing fingers.



As we speak.  Hide yo wife, hide yo kids... serious ice on the way.  I am typing away.


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You have no idea.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Just to preface, and to make y'all understand why CAD is so unpredictable, here's a map. Understand that the cold air doesn't only occupy the valleys, but that is the usual and path of least resistance. If the cold layering is much deeper then it can increase in elevation, duration and the extent to how far south it goes. 

Enjoy the pretty colors and keep this in mind when DDD posts his Thesis entitled; "The Tropopause Day of Doom".


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Just to preface, and to make y'all understand why CAD is so unpredictable, here's a map. Understand that the cold air doesn't only occupy the valleys, but that is the usual and path of least resistance. If the cold layering is much deeper then it can increase in elevation, duration and the extent to how far south it goes.
> 
> Enjoy the pretty colors and keep this in mind when DDD posts his Thesis entitled; "The Tropopause Day of Doom".



Very cool, MC!


----------



## Mountainbuck

Ah man is this just a CAD system ?!?!? I wanted to miss work Monday haha


----------



## the prospector

Working today...Monday morning the I.T. guy is going to ask why my "refresh" key has a hole in it.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Monday is double time for me keep it above I 20 please


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mountainbuck said:


> Ah man is this just a CAD system ?!?!? I wanted to miss work Monday haha



Please don't take this as a personal insult, but to use the phraseology "just a CAD system" is ignorant at best. Some of the most devastating ice storms this state has seen were 100% due to CAD. 

I know we like to make light of the weather, but it can be deadly under the right conditions, and it isn't always tornado weather that kills folks.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Please don't take this as a personal insult, but to use the phraseology "just a CAD system" is ignorant at best. Some of the most devastating ice storms this state has seen were 100% due to CAD.
> 
> I know we like to make light of the weather, but it can be deadly under the right conditions, and it isn't always tornado weather that kills folks.



Yea I was hoping that the cad would just be a cold rain,hope the temp gets above freezing for them folks....


----------



## Mountainbuck

Ok sorry for that


----------



## mrs. hornet22

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Please don't take this as a personal insult, but to use the phraseology "just a CAD system" is ignorant at best. Some of the most devastating ice storms this state has seen were 100% due to CAD.
> 
> I know we like to make light of the weather, but it can be deadly under the right conditions, and it isn't always tornado weather that kills folks.



Aint that the truth! This was last January. Worst ice storm ever for Winder, Buford and Jefferson. 17 miles to Athens didn't see a thing. We were without power for 2 days. Little prelude will never be the same.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mountainbuck said:


> Ok sorry for that


----------



## Mountainbuck

I just meant is this system looking to effect only those on the east side of  mountains


----------



## shakey gizzard

mrs. hornet22 said:


> Aint that the truth! This was last January. Worst ice storm ever for Winder, Buford and Jefferson. 17 miles to Athens didn't see a thing. We were without power for 2 days. Little prelude will never be the same.



Yep! You know its bad when the hardwoods start pop'n!


----------



## DDD

Alright lets jump head first into this threat...

Let me be clear right off the bat, this is mainly for CAD regions and mountains only.

At this range, the global models for me are good for over all set ups of pressure and possible amounts of precipitation.  So keep that in mind when you read about the GFS, the Canadian (CMC) or the EURO.  (Including me)

I am deferring to the NAM and GGEM at this range because they are more short range models and they have stuck to their guns over the last 2-3 runs.  It's why I held off until this morning to see if they would hold or retreat.

I am going to start with Globabl models and move to the short range models in that order.

The GFS came south with it's latest run and I suspect that it will keep coming south as it resolves the solutions.  It also has temps below freezing at the onset of precipitation and then quickly warms temps up.  The GFS sucks at capturing low level cold in the CAD regions.  It always has and always will.  It's why METS in Atlanta have gotten surprised year, after year, after year because they rely on that model too close to an event.  Even as I watch the news this morning on one of those channels they continue to hug the GFS.  That is just not the way to go at this range.  The GFS has temps IMBY around 34 at hour 48 and 54 and most of NE GA for that matter.  Simply just isn't right in my opinion.









However the dewpoint is in the 20's with rain falling into it.  






There is no blocking up in the north atlantic to hold the High pressure in so the GFS quickly kicks the high pressure out to sea but as Lee Corso says... not so fast my friends...



What is telling is the Dewpoints as to how serious this cold is.  The EURO really shows the strength of the high pressure up in the north east and how it's pushing down the back side of the Apps.




Now, the Canadian model is really nasty and it's a global model that is very much in line with the short range modeling.  I have to keep it at a distance but I can't help but look at it's solution because it lines up well with the NAM and GGEM.  It keeps temps very cold, has snow up in the mountains and a severe ice storm in CAD regions of Georgia including NE Metro Atlanta.  It carries the freezing temps into Tuesday as well with a lot of moisture to boot.

[URL=http://s62.photobucket.com/user/tgrip/media/CMC_84temps_zpssvrixoiu.png.html]
	







So let's look at the short range stuff and it's a whole different story.

Let's start with the NAM.  It keeps temps well below freezing through much of the event.  The air that is modeled on any model you pick is dense, cold and bone chilling.  Adding in the precip and it's just plain nasty.  It keeps temps below freezing well into Tuesday.   However the NAM is less in the way of precip.  What is bothersome is due to the cold temps out in front, anything that falls will freeze very quickly.  There is more precip on other models.  The NAM maybe the lightest on precip of all models.  Is it right?  I am not sure about the precip the NAM dishes out with others showing more.  What I do feel the NAM is handling well is the low level cold.







The GGEM has been a really good short range model this year and if what it kicks out comes to pass... well, I hope you all in the CAD regions have a generator and firewood.  I say that because if the GGEM is right you will be in the dark for a while.  Temps warm up Tuesday evening, but the damage is done.





Let me lastly say, watching the TV this morning, they always under estimate the power of the wedge into the Buford, Lawrenceville, Dacula, Auburn, Winder straight out 316 to Athens and points north and east.  They always cut it off mainly in Hall County and to a major point that the Mexican put up, that low level cold will get trapped in those ridges and it's completely unpredictable, however experience tells me, this low level cold, dewpoints and wet bulbs spell TROUBLE.

Below is what I think is going to shape up.  Will it be right?  I am not 100% sure but if you are inside any of these rings, I would prepare for the worst ice related and hope for the best.  Hope that DDD is wrong on this one.  I hate ICE and this one has the potential to do some damage.  If we have to endure an ice storm the only silver lining I see is the temp will climb by late Tuesday and Wednesday.  This potential is no joke.

I feel like the Red area is a lock for .10-.25" of ice.  The farther NE you go someone in NE GA may get .50" of ice.  That is super devastating.

Above the green line is all snow maybe sleet mixed in.

The blue line is the over performing line in my mind.  If the high pressure over performs and the rain gets in quick... well... it's going to be a surprise.

Dead last, stay tuned to local METS and the NWS.  The local NWS has been honking a louder horn than any TV METS and I think their thinking is very much in line with mine.

I will update as time allows and answer as many questions as possible.

Follow me on Twitter for the VERY latest and good banter between myself, the mexican and local mets.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Just to be clear North of the green line is under the gun also?


----------



## jbird1

Wow!...that was worth the wait, DDD.  Many thanks


----------



## DDD

Mountainbuck said:


> Just to be clear North of the green line is under the gun also?



Edit:  Yes... especially looking at the latest NAM.  The NW side of the state will probably be ok, but the NE GA mountains will be in it too.  You can see it on the GGEM and NAM modeling.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I hate ICE and this one has the potential to do some damage.  If we have to endure an ice storm the only silver lining I see is the temp will climb by late Tuesday and Wednesday.  This potential is no joke.
> 
> Dead last, stay tuned to local METS and the NWS.  The local NWS has been honking a louder horn than any TV METS and I think their thinking is very much in line with mine.
> 
> Follow me on Twitter for the VERY latest and good banter between myself, the mexican and local mets.


----------



## mrs. hornet22

shakey gizzard said:


> Yep! You know its bad when the hardwoods start pop'n!



Sounded like a war zone with all the trees and power lines popping. I started a fire in the fireplace at 3:00am. Thank goodness. We still have a ton of "widow makers" hanging high in the oaks.


----------



## jbird1

DDD...Not sure if I am on your ignore list or not but Pappy and myself are just outside of your blue line at the Dawson-Forsyth line.  We got hammered (power outages, damage) by the last CAD event with Pappy really taking it on the chin.  IF this CAD is as strong as that storm, then the top of your curve needs to be more inclusive of this area, ie. Dawsonville.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> DDD...Not sure if I am on your ignore list or not but Pappy and myself are just outside of your blue line at the Dawson-Forsyth line.  We got hammered (power outages, damage) by the last CAD event with Pappy really taking it on the chin.  IF this CAD is as strong as that storm, then the top of your curve needs to be more inclusive of this area, ie. Dawsonville.



Take my map, and advice into consideration when viewing DDD's map, as I prefaced it for him. CAD is not an exact science where location is concerned, just as his map was a generalization.


----------



## PappyHoel

You can keep your stinking ice.  I'm hoping you're wrong but I am better prepared than last year.


----------



## pbradley

No weather, please. I have to fly out to Vegas Monday morning.


----------



## DDD

jbird1 said:


> DDD...Not sure if I am on your ignore list or not but Pappy and myself are just outside of your blue line at the Dawson-Forsyth line.  We got hammered (power outages, damage) by the last CAD event with Pappy really taking it on the chin.  IF this CAD is as strong as that storm, then the top of your curve needs to be more inclusive of this area, ie. Dawsonville.



It's a generalization. If the cad affected you last time I would prepare for that to happen again.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Take my map, and advice into consideration when viewing DDD's map, as I prefaced it for him. CAD is not an exact science where location is concerned, just as his map was a generalization.



That's the best CAD map I've ever seen.  I'm located in the bubble NW side of Lanier.


----------



## nickel back

Any one close to the cad area needs to prepare for the worse and hope for rain.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> It's a generalization. If the cad affected you last time I would prepare for that to happen again.



Copy that.

FYI...the weather has opened the door to twitter for me.


----------



## GA DAWG

I dont want ice. Im on the bubble to. Maybe it moves farther east.


----------



## DDD

Let me also say this is super dependent on the high pressure strength, location and how fast it scoots out to sea. If it scoots out it will be an all rain event. 


It's not a lock by any means.


----------



## jbird1

GA DAWG said:


> I dont want ice. Im on the bubble to. Maybe it moves farther east.



I think we got between 1/2'-3/4" last time if you recall...this is small potatos.

EDIT:  ^^Satire^^


----------



## GA DAWG

jbird1 said:


> I think we got between 1/2'-3/4" last time if you recall...this is small potatos.
> 
> EDIT:  ^^Satire^^


Yeah but I was lucky then. Power only went out a day. Not feeling lucky this time. Im ready though if it does come


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Mods & Admins; Open Question for all to see.

Is there a way to block a single member here on GON from seeing a particular thread? This GON member is blatantly committing plagiarism by taking the forecast from this site and using them as his own over on FB, even in the face of being PM'd and warned against doing such. 

If he was simply restricted from the thread it would end the problem, at least from our perspective. He would have to plagiarize from some other source. 

Maybe it is even a banning offense. I have no idea.


----------



## NCHillbilly

I can attest that it is cold, snowy, and noisy up here in the Toposphere.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> I can attest that it is cold, snowy, and noisy up here in the Toposphere.


Troposphere man, Troposhere,,,,,,,,,alhough you are covered up with Topo as well.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

Reckon I'm in da "Bottomsphere."



Done went and bought a high dolla generator to power my entire house (which ain't much) and NO severe weather.


----------



## deerslayer357

So when is this event supposed to start?  Sunday night through Tuesday?


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> Let me also say this is super dependent on the high pressure strength, location and how fast it scoots out to sea. If it scoots out it will be an all rain event.
> 
> 
> It's not a lock by any means.



At this point I don't think many folks would be upset if that high would just move on east out to the Atlantic


----------



## blood on the ground

Bring on the ICE


----------



## snarlinbear

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Mods & Admins; Open Question for all to see.
> 
> Is there a way to block a single member here on GON from seeing a particular thread? This GON member is blatantly committing plagiarism by taking the forecast from this site and using them as his own over on FB, even in the face of being PM'd and warned against doing such.
> 
> If he was simply restricted from the thread it would end the problem, at least from our perspective. He would have to plagiarize from some other source.
> 
> Maybe it is even a banning offense. I have no idea.



MC: My thought is that he would just access the information as a visitor and would still continue to use it, I expect copyright protection probably exists but then someone would likely have to litigate to enforce it.  Just my thought on the topic.


----------



## DaisyJo

*rimeline?*

Any idea on the start time (or time to get in gear)? I'm traveling home to Franklin Co. from So. Ga tomorrow and don't know when the "best be home by" window is.  

BTW...thanks for all your wonderful insight DDD (and GONers)!!! 




DDD said:


> Alright lets jump head first into this threat...
> 
> Let me be clear right off the bat, this is mainly for CAD regions and mountains only.
> 
> At this range, the global models for me are good for over all set ups of pressure and possible amounts of precipitation.  So keep that in mind when you read about the GFS, the Canadian (CMC) or the EURO.  (Including me)
> 
> I am deferring to the NAM and GGEM at this range because they are more short range models and they have stuck to their guns over the last 2-3 runs.  It's why I held off until this morning to see if they would hold or retreat.
> 
> I am going to start with Globabl models and move to the short range models in that order.
> 
> The GFS came south with it's latest run and I suspect that it will keep coming south as it resolves the solutions.  It also has temps below freezing at the onset of precipitation and then quickly warms temps up.  The GFS sucks at capturing low level cold in the CAD regions.  It always has and always will.  It's why METS in Atlanta have gotten surprised year, after year, after year because they rely on that model too close to an event.  Even as I watch the news this morning on one of those channels they continue to hug the GFS.  That is just not the way to go at this range.  The GFS has temps IMBY around 34 at hour 48 and 54 and most of NE GA for that matter.  Simply just isn't right in my opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> However the dewpoint is in the 20's with rain falling into it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There is no blocking up in the north atlantic to hold the High pressure in so the GFS quickly kicks the high pressure out to sea but as Lee Corso says... not so fast my friends...
> 
> 
> 
> What is telling is the Dewpoints as to how serious this cold is.  The EURO really shows the strength of the high pressure up in the north east and how it's pushing down the back side of the Apps.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Now, the Canadian model is really nasty and it's a global model that is very much in line with the short range modeling.  I have to keep it at a distance but I can't help but look at it's solution because it lines up well with the NAM and GGEM.  It keeps temps very cold, has snow up in the mountains and a severe ice storm in CAD regions of Georgia including NE Metro Atlanta.  It carries the freezing temps into Tuesday as well with a lot of moisture to boot.
> 
> [URL=http://s62.photobucket.com/user/tgrip/media/CMC_84temps_zpssvrixoiu.png.html]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So let's look at the short range stuff and it's a whole different story.
> 
> Let's start with the NAM.  It keeps temps well below freezing through much of the event.  The air that is modeled on any model you pick is dense, cold and bone chilling.  Adding in the precip and it's just plain nasty.  It keeps temps below freezing well into Tuesday.   However the NAM is less in the way of precip.  What is bothersome is due to the cold temps out in front, anything that falls will freeze very quickly.  There is more precip on other models.  The NAM maybe the lightest on precip of all models.  Is it right?  I am not sure about the precip the NAM dishes out with others showing more.  What I do feel the NAM is handling well is the low level cold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The GGEM has been a really good short range model this year and if what it kicks out comes to pass... well, I hope you all in the CAD regions have a generator and firewood.  I say that because if the GGEM is right you will be in the dark for a while.  Temps warm up Tuesday evening, but the damage is done.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Let me lastly say, watching the TV this morning, they always under estimate the power of the wedge into the Buford, Lawrenceville, Dacula, Auburn, Winder straight out 316 to Athens and points north and east.  They always cut it off mainly in Hall County and to a major point that the Mexican put up, that low level cold will get trapped in those ridges and it's completely unpredictable, however experience tells me, this low level cold, dewpoints and wet bulbs spell TROUBLE.
> 
> Below is what I think is going to shape up.  Will it be right?  I am not 100% sure but if you are inside any of these rings, I would prepare for the worst ice related and hope for the best.  Hope that DDD is wrong on this one.  I hate ICE and this one has the potential to do some damage.  If we have to endure an ice storm the only silver lining I see is the temp will climb by late Tuesday and Wednesday.  This potential is no joke.
> 
> I feel like the Red area is a lock for .10-.25" of ice.  The farther NE you go someone in NE GA may get .50" of ice.  That is super devastating.
> 
> Above the green line is all snow maybe sleet mixed in.
> 
> The blue line is the over performing line in my mind.  If the high pressure over performs and the rain gets in quick... well... it's going to be a surprise.
> 
> Dead last, stay tuned to local METS and the NWS.  The local NWS has been honking a louder horn than any TV METS and I think their thinking is very much in line with mine.
> 
> I will update as time allows and answer as many questions as possible.
> 
> Follow me on Twitter for the VERY latest and good banter between myself, the mexican and local mets.


----------



## jbird1

Daisy- The timing of the moisture is one of the big unknowns and will have a large bearing on the type of precip according to most of the weather gurus I've been watching.  The earlier it starts, the more it will lock in the cold air in the CAD regions.  The earliest I have seen anyone talk about moisture arriving is Later tomorrow afternoon in extreme North Ga.  Watch real time reports and plan accordingly.

Credit goes to DDD, MC and Staff.


----------



## Unicoidawg

Thanks for the heads up guys. 

People if you take others work and post it on other places ie FB or another site do the right thing and give credit.


----------



## GA DAWG

Let me get this straight.  Snow is totally out of the question. Right? Its either freezing rain or rain? Also what other storm was Miguel saying something about that had him giddy


----------



## jbird1

lol..^^^

Does anyone care to expound on any possible unforeseen effects the unusual Troposphere situation could have on this system.  Could this possibly change the dynamics of the precip. type?  I am trying to picture a surface wedge of cold and a super cold, diving Troposphere.  Does this leave a really thin warm layer?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

snarlinbear said:


> MC: My thought is that he would just access the information as a visitor and would still continue to use it, I expect copyright protection probably exists but then someone would likely have to litigate to enforce it.  Just my thought on the topic.


You're exactly right. In the end there's not much can be done about it, but call him out for who he is and shame him, though he obviously is derelict enough not to have any humility to begin with.

All that being said, his motivations for being here are singular in nature. He's not an outdoorsman, and he somehow benefits from his private FB page. One look at his GON stats and the only post he's ever made were in the Winter weather threads, since he joined. The timing of his log on's and the timing of his post on FB are evident what he is up to. 

It takes a special kind of scum that would intentionally do what this bubble biter is doing.


----------



## DDD

Unicoidawg said:


> Thanks for the heads up guys.
> 
> People if you take others work and post it on other places ie FB or another site do the right thing and give credit.



Well, it's interesting.  He took everything I said, condensed it into a 4 sentence synopsis and posted the 2 pictures that are publicly on the internet.  If he had posted the WxBell pictures, it really would have been telling but he's a better copy cat than that.

The problem is he copy and pasted word for word a post from 2015.  Reason I know this is because a hand full of people from this forum read it on Facebook and contacted me to alert me that this guy was copying my homework.  

I put a lot of time and effort and YOU, THE PEOPLE OF WOODY'S  paid for the WxBell subscription so I can give you up to the date information.  This guy comes in here for one purpose, to gain street credit (I guess?) in the weather world.  He doesn't do his own homework.  He runs around to weather sites and this one included and just takes everyone else's homework and makes it his own.  Pretty shameful Todd Cosper.

It has become SUPER evident that when I post, he is on FB posting similar diatribe within an hour.  His Facebook page is called "The French Toast Report".  You can't find it unless someone invites you to the page.  Sure, it's hard to prove when he changes the wording, but he's not an outdoors man and he's only here for one purpose.

It's pretty shameful. 

You talk about wanting to take my toys and go home?  Makes me want to just quit posting.  Then he would just go copy someone else and claim it as his own.


----------



## smokey30725

The collective force of GON can shame him into obscurity. We've got your back and appreciate what you do.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Folks, DDD and I try go be good Christians. Sometimes someone gets under your skin and you give them what for. 

Neither one of us would ever steal from anyone. We try our best to provide all of our sources when we post the weather. 

In this instance, and given what this person claims to be vs how he behaves there is one thing that gives both of us solace. 

No matter what financial or self gratifying gains this person makes while here on earth, *Matthew 7:22-23* tell a different story of how it will end for folks like him.

Now, lets get back to watching this beautiful bluebird clear sky today. It won't last.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Thanks for the heads up DDD, Miguel, etc. I just hope the ice isn't to bad in NE GA. I hate that stuff. Looks like we're in the clear in Thomson.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> Thanks for the heads up DDD, Miguel, etc. I just hope the ice isn't to bad in NE GA. I hate that stuff. Looks like we're in the clear in Thomson.



You should be, but I would keep an eye out. A couple of models hinted that the CAD would naturally follow the Savannah River basin down to around Augusta, so,,,,,,,,you never know. 

In your case, a weather rock is definitely called for.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You should be, but I would keep an eye out. A couple of models hinted that the CAD would naturally follow the Savannah River basin down to around Augusta, so,,,,,,,,you never know.
> 
> In your case, a weather rock is definitely called for.



Yeah, the 2014 CAD made a huge mess for the CSRA. Some parts of Aiken County had up to 1 1/2 inches of ice accreation. I had to go south of Thomson to Gibson GA to get my MIL. There were full grown oak trees and pines down everywhere. We were lucky and recieved mostly sleet.
By the way, I'm still craving ribs lol


----------



## the prospector

Wish I had me one of those weather rocks in Pickens county.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

deerhuntingdawg said:


> Yeah, the 2014 CAD made a huge mess for the CSRA. Some parts of Aiken County had up to 1 1/2 inches of ice accreation. I had to go south of Thomson to Gibson GA to get my MIL. There were full grown oak trees and pines down everywhere. We were lucky and recieved mostly sleet.
> By the way, I'm still craving ribs lol



Guess what I'm having for dinner............leftovers.......


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

the prospector said:


> Wish I had me one of those weather rocks in Pickens county.



Send Ga Dawg a pm. I bet he'll get you one at a bargain, and fast too!


----------



## the prospector

may see if DDD has one to trade on


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

18z NAM is showing up now. Lets see if anything has changed.


----------



## fredw

DDD said:


> Well, it's interesting.  He took everything I said, condensed it into a 4 sentence synopsis and posted the 2 pictures that are publicly on the internet.  If he had posted the WxBell pictures, it really would have been telling but he's a better copy cat than that.
> 
> The problem is he copy and pasted word for word a post from 2015.  Reason I know this is because a hand full of people from this forum read it on Facebook and contacted me to alert me that this guy was copying my homework.
> 
> I put a lot of time and effort and YOU, THE PEOPLE OF WOODY'S  paid for the WxBell subscription so I can give you up to the date information.  This guy comes in here for one purpose, to gain street credit (I guess?) in the weather world.  He doesn't do his own homework.  He runs around to weather sites and this one included and just takes everyone else's homework and makes it his own.  Pretty shameful Todd Cosper.
> 
> It has become SUPER evident that when I post, he is on FB posting similar diatribe within an hour.  His Facebook page is called "The French Toast Report".  You can't find it unless someone invites you to the page.  Sure, it's hard to prove when he changes the wording, but he's not an outdoors man and he's only here for one purpose.
> 
> It's pretty shameful.
> 
> You talk about wanting to take my toys and go home?  Makes me want to just quit posting.  Then he would just go copy someone else and claim it as his own.



Dang......I'm a member of that group


----------



## Hornet22

Ya'll want to hear some REAL drama; the dog wetted on my weather rock an it froze. Fixin ta get real over thisa way


----------



## gobbleinwoods

GA DAWG said:


> I say we ban his ip address  I tried to see his page but cant.





Miguel Cervantes said:


> It is neither of those fellas, as far as I know, unless he is double registered on here. In that case there will be a feint POOF sound when the mods catch up and delete his accounts.  But like I said, to my knowledge he is neither one of those fellas.



Good to know.

A quick http://whatismyipaddress.com/ip-lookup and I am sure there are other look ups too.   It is the site I use to monitor another vB site.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Hornet22 said:


> Ya'll want to hear some REAL drama; the dog wetted on my weather rock an it froze. Fixin ta get real over thisa way


----------



## NCHillbilly

It is not malak. Don't take it out on him.

Our local looks like about 6" more snow out of this, then some rain.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

I don't know about y'alls BY, but IMBY it was 16 degrees when I stepped out of the truck and turned my bird dog loose.  4 hours later, after tromping through 5-6" of dry powdery snow and crossing frozen creeks, it was still 16 degrees.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

GAAAHHHHHHH,,,, ARRRRGGGGGHHHHH....

I'm goin out to buy more jello and nails. 


I'll be back later.


----------



## GA DAWG

Musta said just rain.


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> GAAAHHHHHHH,,,, ARRRRGGGGGHHHHH....
> 
> I'm goin out to buy more jello and nails.
> 
> 
> I'll be back later.



....lol


----------



## 1john4:4

sQUOTE=DDD;10030376]Well, it's interesting.  He took everything I said, condensed it into a 4 sentence synopsis and posted the 2 pictures that are publicly on the internet.  If he had posted the WxBell pictures, it really would have been telling but he's a better copy cat than that.

The problem is he copy and pasted word for word a post from 2015.  Reason I know this is because a hand full of people from this forum read it on Facebook and contacted me to alert me that this guy was copying my homework.  

I put a lot of time and effort and YOU, THE PEOPLE OF WOODY'S  paid for the WxBell subscription so I can give you up to the date information.  This guy comes in here for one purpose, to gain street credit (I guess?) in the weather world.  He doesn't do his own homework.  He runs around to weather sites and this one included and just takes everyone else's homework and makes it his own.  Pretty shameful Todd Cosper.

It has become SUPER evident that when I post, he is on FB posting similar diatribe within an hour.  His Facebook page is called "The French Toast Report".  You can't find it unless someone invites you to the page.  Sure, it's hard to prove when he changes the wording, but he's not an outdoors man and he's only here for one purpose.

It's pretty shameful. 

You talk about wanting to take my toys and go home?  Makes me want to just quit posting.  Then he would just go copy someone else and claim it as his own. [/QUOTE]

I follow that page as well as this one. I can tell you with certainty, that he has posted your thoughts and has said " From DDD on GON". Every post that I have read on that site with similar wording as your's always starts DDD. As a matter of fact, he has probably directed a lot of people to GON that never knew it existed. Just my 2 cents.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

northgeorgiasportsman said:


> I don't know about y'alls BY, but IMBY it was 16 degrees when I stepped out of the truck and turned my bird dog loose.  4 hours later, after tromping through 5-6" of dry powdery snow and crossing frozen creeks, it was still 16 degrees.



It was 26 in Saute this morning and no snow.


----------



## DDD

> I follow that page as well as this one. I can tell you with certainty, that he has posted your thoughts and has said " From DDD on GON". Every post that I have read on that site with similar wording as your's always starts DDD. As a matter of fact, he has probably directed a lot of people to GON that never knew it existed. Just my 2 cents.


He only does that when he's in a hurry.  He does the same thing with Robert at WxSouth.  He will give credit or link people the site.

Trust me when I tell you, it's been well documented.   I am through talking about it though.  

At the end of the day, this is a public forum.  Facebook is a public forum.  I know that when I post something here it subject to be read by anyone and everyone.  It is also subject to being re-worded and held as "my thoughts."

If he wants to  call it his own, how am I going to stop that?  Can't.  But every one of his followers should know he's not a "forecaster".  He's a real estate loan officer.   I don't consider myself a forecaster.  I am an application engineer.  Forecasters go to school and earn a degree.  They've earned that title. 

I always immediately urge caution that says, "I enjoy forecasting winters in Georgia" but ends up quoting other people and asking people questions he should know the answer to, if he is a forecaster.  He should take a step back and consider himself a "weather enthusiast" and back of the "forecasting" title.


----------



## toyota4x4h

Dang the local mets were way off before winter they called for 14" total snow this winter. Unless something else shows up late I've had about half an inch haha!


----------



## Trigabby

Miguel Cervantes said:


> You're exactly right. In the end there's not much can be done about it, but call him out for who he is and shame him, though he obviously is derelict enough not to have any humility to begin with.
> 
> All that being said, his motivations for being here are singular in nature. He's not an outdoorsman, and he somehow benefits from his private FB page. One look at his GON stats and the only post he's ever made were in the Winter weather threads, since he joined. The timing of his log on's and the timing of his post on FB are evident what he is up to.
> 
> It takes a special kind of scum that would intentionally do what this bubble biter is doing.



I thought banding would involve IP addresses and such.. He would have a difficult time getting back on; to the extent of using another location or another computer...  But, once on the web, anyone can really access it, sorry to say..

Edit : I really should check in more often.. I've been out sunning my chestnuts.  Yes, I put them out in the sun for warmth then put them back under the house when it gets cold at night.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> He should take a step back and consider himself a "weather enthusiast" and back of the "forecasting" title.



Unless you have a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology or a MBA in the same you are a weather nerd, geek or junkie. 

We fall into one of those categories, and since I don't wear glasses with tape on them or a pocket protector, I am a geek and a junkie. I'm hooked on it. 

I agree with you, anyone that claims to be a forecaster is bearing false witness. Plus, if it's so harmless, he's a member here. He is free to come in here and defend himself, or humbly apologize. Another point, if you're doing it because you love being a forecaster, from a forecasters code of ethics you are in that business to help everyone, to inform you fellow human being, so why would his FB weather page be 100% private from anyone seeing it unless they are personally invited by the secret society of members? Why would he bother to block those that call him out on his antics?

Simple math reveals the truth, and this one doesn't add up. If he wants to aid in the membership of GON, then copy the link to DDD's post, put it on his "Public Site" (not a hidden private one) and tell folks they need to join here and come read it. Or Link Roberts WX South subscription page and tell people to go there and sign up. 

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck................


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Trigabby said:


> I thought banding would involve IP addresses and such.. He would have a difficult time getting back on; to the extent of using another location or another computer...  But, once on the web, anyone can really access it, sorry to say..
> 
> Edit : I really should check in more often.. I've been out sunning my chestnuts.  Yes, I put them out in the sun for warmth then put them back under the house when it gets cold at night.



American Chestnuts?


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD, and Miguel thank you for all of the weather info that you provide us. 

DDD,

Are you still in Tn or back in Dacula?


----------



## DDD

I will be honest, I am a little surprised to see the NWS jump on the Winter Storm Watch.  They have been bird dogging this storm for days, even before I was.

If this comes to pass,  I have to give them props for calling it early.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD, and Miguel thank you for all of the weather info that you provide us.
> 
> DDD,
> 
> Are you still in Tn or back in Dacula?



I am back in the great state of Georgia.  Hope not to go back up there for a while.  My kids like knowing they have a dad and my wife likes me being around.  I think.


----------



## DDD

I am beginning to think that this may be more rain than anything else.  Right now the precip is just looking to come in too slow.  If the rain does not get here until Monday afternoon the high pressure will have slid off the East Coast and the cold air will have escaped NE ward.


----------



## DDD

Guys, let's keep it on the weather if we can.  I appreciate all the followers here, I do.  You guys are awesome.  

Let's drive it back to what got us here... God's weather and lets leave it at that.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> I am beginning to think that this may be more rain than anything else.  Right now the precip is just looking to come in too slow.  If the rain does not get here until Monday afternoon the high pressure will have slid off the East Coast and the cold air will have escaped NE ward.


Now you know why I had to run out and buy more jello and nails. Comparing the earlier maps you posted with these two. Monday afternoon and late Monday evening, I just started doing this. 

Next time I go to the store I'm buying rope. Herding cats has to be easier.


----------



## parisinthe20s

DDD said:


> Guys, let's keep it on the weather if we can.  I appreciate all the followers here, I do.  You guys are awesome.
> 
> Let's drive it back to what got us here... God's weather and lets leave it at that.




God's weather is hatin on Georgia this year. I want snow! 
I still haven't uncrossed my fingers.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Rain is better than ice


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD

If we had cold air from the top apmosphere down to the ground. Where would we need the High and Low to be for this to be all snow?


----------



## deermaster13

I don't post much but visit this forum every day. Thanks mc and triple d for sharing your insight.


----------



## Stonewall 2

Migmack said:


> Rain is better than ice



You got that right! Nothing fun about ice!


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD
> 
> If we had cold air from the top apmosphere down to the ground. Where would we need the High and Low to be for this to be all snow?



We need another piece of high pressure out over the Atlantic to hold the high pressure in place.  If that was happening Monday, we would all be in the dark for sure and it would be a lock for a severe icing, but we don't have that. When we have high pressure on top of us, you can't get precip in here.  Those are Miguel's blue bird skies.

The best way for us to get snow is when strong high pressure is up over Ohio and it's not just at the low levels of the atmosphere, it needs to be at all levels of the atmosphere, that way when the moisture goes into it, it will be snow.  It's not so much the placement of the high pressure as it is how deep the cold air is.  What we have now will be cold shallow air with warm air riding over it.


----------



## JonathanG2013

I meant cold air all the way down my bad. Still hope we get a good snow storm to end the month or maybe in March.


----------



## parisinthe20s

Has Georgia ever had a good snow event in March? I only moved to Ga. January of last year.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

parisinthe20s said:


> Has Georgia ever had a good snow event in March? I only moved to Ga. January of last year.



The storm of the century, 1993. 

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/20-years-ago-today-atlanta-slammed-by-rare-blizzar/nWqcL/


----------



## toyota4x4h

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The storm of the century, 1993.
> 
> http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/20-years-ago-today-atlanta-slammed-by-rare-blizzar/nWqcL/



I was 10 that was a great storm lol. We were out of power for a week and a half though we did live in the boonies of Murray co. We had 21" or more cant really remember


----------



## parisinthe20s

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The storm of the century, 1993.
> 
> http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/20-years-ago-today-atlanta-slammed-by-rare-blizzar/nWqcL/




Wow ! 35 inches in union city, That's crazy.


----------



## Garcia Mitchler

I was in the Coast Guard stationed on a Buoy Tender in Mobile, AL (USCGC Sweetgum). Pretty sure this was one of those rare times Mobile ever got any snow... it was trace amounts, but it was still snow. I was mad I wasn't back here at home to see this!


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

parisinthe20s said:


> Wow ! 35 inches in union city, That's crazy.



Union County.  We had a snow drift outside our basement door that was 6 or 7 feet high.  We were without power for 8 days, but I know folks who went 2 weeks.


----------



## keithsto

parisinthe20s said:


> Wow ! 35 inches in union city, That's crazy.



Union county


----------



## GA DAWG

That blizzard in 93 was predicted by one of my rocks. I blew up 2 4wheelers. We tore several cars up and had a truck stuck for a week in a snow drift


----------



## Unicoidawg

93 Blizzard was unreal....... we had 26 1/2 inches in the yard and thunder snow galore. I may never see another like that one.


----------



## deerhuntingdawg

What was crazy, about 2 hours down the road in Augusta, we got flurries. I was in college at the time. 73' was the big one down here. That was the year before I was born. Most snow I've seen was about 8-9 inches.


----------



## grunt0331

I was in high school and clearly remember measuring 13 inches on our front side walk.


----------



## PappyHoel

Unicoidawg said:


> 93 Blizzard was unreal....... we had 26 1/2 inches in the yard and thunder snow galore. I may never see another like that one.



Yep i remember watching pine trees snap in half and hearing thunder, with a full white out snow going on.


----------



## parisinthe20s

keithsto said:


> Union county



My bad, I saw 35 inches of snow and got excited.


----------



## NCHillbilly

Unicoidawg said:


> 93 Blizzard was unreal....... we had 26 1/2 inches in the yard and thunder snow galore. I may never see another like that one.



There was snow drifted level with the roof of my house on the back side. I couldn't see my truck or mailbox. It got down below zero the next night and froze it all solid. We had about 50" level best we could tell from the drifting. It didn't all melt until May.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

NCHillbilly said:


> It didn't all melt until May.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

The blizzard of '93 also affected us mountain sportsmen years later.

It brought down so many trees and laurels into the creeks, that several stretches of trout stream were rendered unfishable for a few years.  The spring and summer of '97 was the first time I could fish a few of these places and BOY was the fishing good!


----------



## Patriot44

DDD, HMIMBY, North is 35M SE of Due West.

Thanks and I will hang up now and listen to your response.


----------



## DDD

Patriot44 said:


> DDD, HMIMBY, North is 35M SE of Due West.
> 
> Thanks and I will hang up now and listen to your response.



If only you were 35M SE of Due West...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Here's my totally unofficial, means absolutely nothing to anybody freezing rain projection map. Fingers are solidly crossed for a cold rain though. I think it's possible.  
Even still holding out for my bluebird clear skies...............yes I'm a dreamer...


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's my totally unofficial, means absolutely nothing to anybody freezing rain projection map. Fingers are solidly crossed for a cold rain though. I think it's possible.
> Even still holding out for my bluebird clear skies...............yes I'm a dreamer...



That blue line in Walton County better be on your side of town!!!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Robbie101 said:


> That blue line in Walton County better be on your side of town!!!



Just tryin to share the love.


----------



## Patriot44

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's my totally unofficial, means absolutely nothing to anybody freezing rain projection map. Fingers are solidly crossed for a cold rain though. I think it's possible.
> Even still holding out for my bluebird clear skies...............yes I'm a dreamer...



YES. Snow for Paulding.  I am putting this on FB.


----------



## Patriot44

DDD said:


> If only you were 35M SE of Due West...



What are you, a TV met now...


----------



## parisinthe20s

I thought that map was ice, is it actually snow?


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's my totally unofficial, means absolutely nothing to anybody freezing rain projection map. Fingers are solidly crossed for a cold rain though. I think it's possible.
> Even still holding out for my bluebird clear skies...............yes I'm a dreamer...



I think this is pretty accurate.

After reading about an in-situ CAD I am wondering if that freezing will extend a little farther SW like the CMC has it modeled?

I am ready to see that Low pop up and wondering if moisture will spread farther East faster.


----------



## DDD

parisinthe20s said:


> I thought that map was ice, is it actually snow?



That's ice.  

You know... Ice, ice baby... du nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh...


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> That's ice.
> 
> You know... Ice, ice baby... du nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh...



Ed Zachery.


----------



## tree cutter 08

NCHillbilly said:


> There was snow drifted level with the roof of my house on the back side. I couldn't see my truck or mailbox. It got down below zero the next night and froze it all solid. We had about 50" level best we could tell from the drifting. It didn't all melt until May.



I was told back in 60 there was a big snow in march. Feller said there was still snow in the deep hollars on the head of the hooch 4th of July.


----------



## GA DAWG

This is a non event. Had more ice one day awhile back.  Now what's next on the menu for winter?


----------



## mark-7mag

I can remember it snowing in March here when I was a young lad


----------



## jbird1

On March 24th, 1983, we went to bed expecting a cold rain.  We woke up to flakes the size of appetizer plates raining down.  I believe we tallied between 7-8 inches of wet snow in NE Cobb County.  I was 9 years old.  I loved the 80's.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> On March 24th, 1983, we went to bed expecting a cold rain.  We woke up to flakes the size of appetizer plates raining down.  I believe we tallied between 7-8 inches of wet snow in NE Cobb County.  I was 9 years old.  I loved the 80's.



Dude, if you were 9 in the 80's then judging by that picture of you in your avvy, you've had a hard life!!


----------



## JonathanG2013

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dude, if you were 9 in the 80's then judging by that picture of you in your avvy, you've had a hard life!!



 Very rough lol. 

Did you live in silver city during the March 93 storm?


----------



## mtr3333

Looking like a cold rain


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Dude, if you were 9 in the 80's then judging by that picture of you in your avvy, you've had a hard life!!


----------



## jbird1

JonathanG2013 said:


> Very rough lol.
> 
> Did you live in silver city during the March 93 storm?



Cobb...We had a Beta fish that froze solid inside his bowl in our house.


----------



## DDD

mtr3333 said:


> Looking like a cold rain



Where?


----------



## JonathanG2013

Jbird how much snow did you get in n cobb in the 93 storm?


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

During the blizzard, we heated the house, cooked our meals, and melted water on one of these.  Dad gave it to me a couple years back.  I've got it in the basement and fueled up ready to go now.


----------



## jbird1

You know...I wouldn't be totally against on of those self contained, all-in-one snow systems that bring their own cold air swinging through in March.  The one that hit in March near Athens a few years ago and dumped a half a foot will do.  That snow was wet and heavy too...it completely destroyed an Ameristep blind I had set up....lol.  I wonder if that's the type of system that hammered us in '83?


----------



## jbird1

JonathanG2013 said:


> Jbird how much snow did you get in n cobb in the 93 storm?



We never measured it but it was a lot.  I spent a good amount of time on a Kawasaki in the Kroger parking lot tearin' it up! Yall?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jbird1 said:


> We never measured it but it was a lot.  I spent a good amount of time on a Kawasaki in the Kroger parking lot tearin' it up! Yall?



You Rebel you.


----------



## AM1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Here's my totally unofficial, means absolutely nothing to anybody freezing rain projection map. Fingers are solidly crossed for a cold rain though. I think it's possible.
> Even still holding out for my bluebird clear skies...............yes I'm a dreamer...


What can Gilmer county expect? More snow than ice or vice versa? We seem to be in/out of transition areas (depending on source).


----------



## mountainpass

AM1 said:


> What can Gilmer county expect? More snow than ice or vice versa? We seem to be in/out of transition areas (depending on source).



Rain


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

AM1 said:


> What can Gilmer county expect? More snow than ice or vice versa? We seem to be in/out of transition areas (depending on source).



Not being sarcastic, but that is a question that only your weather rock will be able to answer during the event.


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> I think this is pretty accurate.
> 
> After reading about an in-situ CAD I am wondering if that freezing will extend a little farther SW like the CMC has it modeled?
> 
> I am ready to see that Low pop up and wondering if moisture will spread farther East faster.



Where is the L pressure now and when will it be in a good position to track?  Thanks guys for all the time you put into keeping us informed


----------



## SGADawg

I don't remember the exact dates but in March, 1980 we lived in Crawford Co., west of Macon. I have a picture of my then 8 month old son with no shirt or shoes playing in the freshly tilled garden on a Saturday. 8 days later, we woke up on Sunday morning to about 6 inches of powder snow and temps in or near the teens!


----------



## DDD

Well... after looking at the NAM all I can say is  

Grocery store run tomorrow for all CAD regions.  This includes most of Gwinnett County.


----------



## BlackEagle

DDD said:


> Well... after looking at the NAM all I can say is
> 
> Grocery store run tomorrow for all CAD regions.  This includes most of Gwinnett County.



I'm still trying to figure out where the cad regions are. 

I live in Athens and work in Winder.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD done gone and started waving the red flag! Do I get to panic in NW Georgia or just stand in the rain?


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> Well... after looking at the NAM all I can say is
> 
> Grocery store run tomorrow for all CAD regions.  This includes most of Gwinnett County.



You got pics? Or one of your maps with estimates of amount of potential ice?


----------



## DDD

BlackEagle said:


> I'm still trying to figure out where the cad regions are.
> 
> I live in Athens and work in Winder.



You are in the CAD.  See post #647


----------



## DDD

jf950y said:


> You got pics? Or one of your maps with estimates of amount of potential ice?



There is light moisture starting about this time tomorrow night.  It does that all day Monday until Monday night when the heavy stuff rolls in and you can see from the pic below where the freezing line is and how much moisture is coming down.

I believe because of evaporational cooling, that line will be even farther SW.


----------



## BlackEagle

DDD said:


> You are in the CAD.  See post #647



Got it thanks!


----------



## jf950y

DDD said:


> There is light moisture starting about this time tomorrow night.  It does that all day Monday until Monday night when the heavy stuff rolls in and you can see from the pic below where the freezing line is and how much moisture is coming down.
> 
> I believe because of evaporational cooling, that line will be even farther SW.


 yuck


----------



## 95g atl

DDD said:


> Well... after looking at the NAM all I can say is
> 
> Grocery store run tomorrow for all CAD regions.  This includes most of Gwinnett County.



Yikes.....that's where i am.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

At this point it's all down to watching the radar and your weather rock. Models have gotten as tight as the most likely will. Unless there is a major drastic shift in the HRRR, RAP or NAM it is what it is from here on out. 

Oh, and for those that think the term "weather rock" is a joke. It kind of is, but it is also a Euphamism for the most important element of meteorology that technology will never be able to replace, and that is human reported ground truth. That is why the skywarn spotter training continues to be so important to the NWS.

Courtesy of our friends at Radarscope & Stormtrack:
http://stormtrack.org/community/pages/RadarScope/


----------



## GA DAWG

Nothing out here yet. Im spotting


----------



## PappyHoel

GA DAWG said:


> Nothing out here yet. Im spotting



I'm about to go spot my cup of coffee.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

PappyHoel said:


> I'm about to go spot my cup of coffee.



That's perzactly what I'm doing. Man's gotta have priorities in life.


----------



## NCHillbilly

I have seen it snow a few times here in early May. Like a foot. Had about 60" on Mount Pisgah in May one year, trapped a bunch of folks in the Pisgah Inn up there.


----------



## hmaddox

I checked Noaa this am - NWS has Kennesaw with the possibility of some icing.  Do you guys see this - to include Cobb, Paulding?

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...Outlook&lat=34.0599&lon=-84.6755#.VsB2npMrLaY


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

hmaddox said:


> I checked Noaa this am - NWS has Kennesaw with the possibility of some icing.  Do you guys see this - to include Cobb, Paulding?
> 
> http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...Outlook&lat=34.0599&lon=-84.6755#.VsB2npMrLaY



The late run of the NAM expanded all the way over to Extreme NW GA, but that is gone on this mornings run.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

We've explained this before, but Brad Nitz / WSB TV just posted this graphic on Twitter that is an excellent representation of how deep the cold layering needs to be to get snow, and the results of more shallow variables.


----------



## hmaddox

DDD said:


> There is light moisture starting about this time tomorrow night.  It does that all day Monday until Monday night when the heavy stuff rolls in and you can see from the pic below where the freezing line is and how much moisture is coming down.
> 
> I believe because of evaporational cooling, that line will be even farther SW.



So in NW GA lots of yellow, red, and green - rain, sleet? confused....
(One day I will get to a point where I understand these maps)

MC reports, all changed as of this AM for NW GA.  Will look forward to both of your posts today!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

hmaddox said:


> So in NW GA lots of green - rain, sleet? confused....
> (One day I will get to a point where I understand these maps)



Maps are a projection of what could be, not what will be without a doubt. You will never get a forecast or projection from any credible source that will tell you exactly what you will get in your back yard. 

Take the maps on face value, understand there is a margin of error based on the real life / event conditions when it actually happens, and observe your weather rock carefully. 

In the event of a Severe outbreak that has been forecast and warned by the NWS, stick close to your weather radio and pay even closer attention to what's happening in your back yard.


----------



## hmaddox

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Maps are a projection of what could be, not what will be without a doubt. You will never get a forecast or projection from any credible source that will tell you exactly what you will get in your back yard.
> 
> Take the maps on face value, understand there is a margin of error based on the real life / event conditions when it actually happens, and observe your weather rock carefully.
> 
> In the event of a Severe outbreak that has been forecast and warned by the NWS, stick close to your weather radio and pay even closer attention to what's happening in your back yard.



Will do.  Thanks MC!


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> There is light moisture starting about this time tomorrow night.  It does that all day Monday until Monday night when the heavy stuff rolls in and you can see from the pic below where the freezing line is and how much moisture is coming down.
> 
> I believe because of evaporational cooling, that line will be even farther SW.



NW Lanier Ice Fields bubble seems to be in place.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Remember over passes can freeze when temps just  above freezing


----------



## mammajamma

What would you guys do?  We have camping reservations in FL tomorrow.  With the threat of weather, we thought of leaving today and camping 1/2 way.  It seems fairly certain that the winter weather won't hit Douglasville (just N of I-20 in West GA).  I sure could get some more stuff done around the house today if we waited until Monday to leave.

What would you do?  Play it safe and leave today or wait and leave tomorrow for the 6 hour drive?

Happy Valentine's Day!!


----------



## mtr3333

DDD said:


> Where?



Imfy


----------



## mtr3333

And imby


----------



## mtr3333

Maybe even have to go in Mon


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

mammajamma said:


> What would you guys do?  We have camping reservations in FL tomorrow.  With the threat of weather, we thought of leaving today and camping 1/2 way.  It seems fairly certain that the winter weather won't hit Douglasville (just N of I-20 in West GA).  I sure could get some more stuff done around the house today if we waited until Monday to leave.
> 
> What would you do?  Play it safe and leave today or wait and leave tomorrow for the 6 hour drive?
> 
> Happy Valentine's Day!!



If it were me, and I were where you are, and planned on leaving at 4:30 am tomorrow to get ahead of the work week idjits I wouldn't fear none. 

But then again, I'm not you, where you are, or endorsing any action other than what you choose to do for your own convenience of schedule and personal safety. 

Yes that is a disclaimer.


----------



## Priest

Looking at the wind right now and I've seen something odd..... all the wind over the east is running in a clockwise pattern with the air coming out of the north east, running down to Florida and then back up the middle of the country.  It seems to all be rotating around eastern West Virginia. It's just an odd pattern compared to what I've seen in our other events, sites anyone have an explanation about this and our current expected junk coming in?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Priest said:


> Looking at the wind right now and I've seen something odd..... all the wind over the east is running in a clockwise pattern with the air coming out of the north east, running down to Florida and then back up the middle of the country.  It seems to all be rotating around eastern West Virginia. It's just an odd pattern compared to what I've seen in our other events, sites anyone have an explanation about this and our current expected junk coming in?



That is the high pressure. HPS rotate clockwise. LPS rotate counterclockwise. How wide a swath the HPS is taking depends on what elevation / mb range you are observing it in and how deep the high is.


----------



## blood on the ground

for a nice base layer of ice,ice baby then a comfy 2 foots of snow!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> for a nice base layer of ice,ice baby then a comfy 2 foots of snow!



Get back to us when you wake up.


----------



## jbird1

blood on the ground said:


> for a nice base layer of ice,ice baby then a comfy 2 foots of snow!



Really thin base layer of ice


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Get back to us when you wake up.



Hey brother nothing wrong with dreaming


----------



## blood on the ground

jbird1 said:


> Really thin base layer of ice



I ain't picky


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> Hey brother nothing wrong with dreaming



It's just weird when you come in here spoutin that stuff while wearin  your footy jammies.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's just weird when you come in here spoutin that stuff while wearin  your footy jammies.



Even more weird when theyz a button missing on  the back door flap!


----------



## DDD

At this hour, 10AM, I am tossing our ice threat except for extreme NE GA.  The NAM has lost that loving feeling.

If I take the NAM and other modeling at face value, there may be a glaze early on, but then warm air overtakes a retreating High Pressure system and the freezing line slides back up into upstate SC and foothills of NC.

Last night the 00Z runs were one heck of an ice storm, but this morning, possibly with more atmospheric data over land, they have backed off.  

Now the 18Z models might flip back and have me sounding the alarm, but no need to panic over what is modeled right now.

Something else that might change the game is if precip was to break out heavier farther East than modeled.  That too would be a game changer, but that is wish casting or foretelling of something that simply has no model data to back it up.

If 18Z models come in like 12Z NAM modeling, I would expect the NWS to cancel the WSWatch.

Also, thought of the day:  Your integrity is all you have in this world.  It's a shame when you lose it.


----------



## jbird1

DDD said:


> At this hour, 10AM, I am tossing our ice threat except for extreme NE GA.  The NAM has lost that loving feeling.
> 
> If I take the NAM and other modeling at face value, there may be a glaze early on, but then warm air overtakes a retreating High Pressure system and the freezing line slides back up into upstate SC and foothills of NC.
> 
> Last night the 00Z runs were one heck of an ice storm, but this morning, possibly with more atmospheric data over land, they have backed off.
> 
> Now the 18Z models might flip back and have me sounding the alarm, but no need to panic over what is modeled right now.
> 
> Something else that might change the game is if precip was to break out heavier farther East than modeled.  That too would be a game changer, but that is wish casting or foretelling of something that simply has no model data to back it up.
> 
> If 18Z models come in like 12Z NAM modeling, I would expect the NWS to cancel the WSWatch.
> 
> Also, thought of the day:  Your integrity is all you have in this world.  It's a shame when you lose it.



Thanks for the model update.  The cream always rises to the top.  The pretenders will fall away.


----------



## jf950y

I hope this one is not lulling us into false sense of security. I am still prepared just in case mother nature decided to flex.


----------



## blood on the ground

DDD said:


> At this hour, 10AM, I am tossing our ice threat except for extreme NE GA.  The NAM has lost that loving feeling.
> 
> If I take the NAM and other modeling at face value, there may be a glaze early on, but then warm air overtakes a retreating High Pressure system and the freezing line slides back up into upstate SC and foothills of NC.
> 
> Last night the 00Z runs were one heck of an ice storm, but this morning, possibly with more atmospheric data over land, they have backed off.
> 
> Now the 18Z models might flip back and have me sounding the alarm, but no need to panic over what is modeled right now.
> 
> Something else that might change the game is if precip was to break out heavier farther East than modeled.  That too would be a game changer, but that is wish casting or foretelling of something that simply has no model data to back it up.
> 
> If 18Z models come in like 12Z NAM modeling, I would expect the NWS to cancel the WSWatch.
> 
> Also, thought of the day:  Your integrity is all you have in this world.  It's a shame when you lose it.


Great work DDD!


----------



## smokey30725

This should be the point in time where DDD or Miguel (reluctantly) tells us that there is "one more shot" at a big snow bomb!


----------



## parisinthe20s

DDD, obviously no one knows for sure, but in your opinion, do you think there's still a possibility  for one more winter event before spring?


----------



## GA DAWG

All I know is this East wind is blowing cold today. Thats gotta mean something


----------



## elfiii

Stick a fork in this one. Onward to the spinin' thingys!


----------



## PappyHoel

I see what happened with this forecast.


----------



## jbird1

Latest discussion from NWS

301
FXUS62 KFFC 141136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST ON TAP AS CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE IS BUILDING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE PARENT 1034-MB SFC HIGH SLIDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC... BEFORE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING TRANSLATED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO
INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE DIABATIC
EFFECTS OF PARCEL EVAP COOLING MAY BE THE TOP REINFORCING FACTOR
TO THE WEDGE GOING INTO MONDAY SINCE THE PARENT HIGH QUICKLY
PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW TRENDS FARTHER
NORTH ON ITS TRACK. THEREFORE NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WEDGE WILL ERODE AND HAVE OVERALL STAYED CLOSER TO THE BETTER
RESOLVING NAM SOLUTION THOUGH STILL WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON
FCST TEMPS. GIVEN SFC TEMPS AND PROGGED WETBULB TEMPS FROM HI-RES
SOLUTIONS THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE NORTHEASTERN MAJORITY
OF THE CWA REACHING FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH
GRADUAL WARMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WEDGE EROSION. THE BIGGER
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE AREA FARTHER NORTHEAST /IN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH/ REMAINS IN A SUB-FREEZING POCKET INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SECOND BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ISENTROPICALLY FORCED QPF
RESULTS MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING LATER THAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WPC GUIDANCE BASICALLY SHOWS ZERO QPF FOR MONDAY
MORNING WHILE LOCAL WRF SOLUTIONS TRANSLATE LIGHT AMOUNTS ALONG THE
WEDGE. BASED ON FCST PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILES IT
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
EXTEND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR /WHILE THE FAR NE MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET COMBO. WPC GUIDANCE AND MANY OTHER MODELS HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE HIGHER QPF VALUES FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS ALSO RESULTED IN LESS OVERALL ICE/SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
FAR NORTH BY LATE MONDAY. ALL CONSIDERED HAVE LOWERED THE MAX ICE
ACCRETION TOTALS TO 0.1-0.2 INCHES ICE IN FAR NE AND SPREAD LIGHTER
GLAZE AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCH AREA...AND HAVE ALSO
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION MAX TO 0.5-1.0 INCHES IN FAR NE.
GIVEN RECENT TREND OF LESS QPF AND OVERALL MORE UNCERTAINTY ON
AMOUNTS...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE ON CURRENT WATCH WITH THE HOPES OF
GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE WITH DAYTIME PACKAGE FOR ANY POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO PRODUCT. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH NE NEIGHBOR GSP
WFO. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THIS
SENSITIVE SETUP.

ALSO ADDED SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME
INSTABILITY NOSING INTO THE SW PORTION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS PRETTY
DECENT SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS /SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
HAS MARGINAL ZONE NOT TOO FAR FROM OUR SW BORDER/.

BAKER


----------



## GA DAWG

I know its only 12:15 but is supposed to be 43 today. Its 36 right now. Sun is now covered. Thats all Ive spotted though.


----------



## nickel back

DDD said:


> At this hour, 10AM, I am tossing our ice threat except for extreme NE GA.  The NAM has lost that loving feeling.
> 
> If I take the NAM and other modeling at face value, there may be a glaze early on, but then warm air overtakes a retreating High Pressure system and the freezing line slides back up into upstate SC and foothills of NC.
> 
> Last night the 00Z runs were one heck of an ice storm, but this morning, possibly with more atmospheric data over land, they have backed off.
> 
> Now the 18Z models might flip back and have me sounding the alarm, but no need to panic over what is modeled right now.
> 
> Something else that might change the game is if precip was to break out heavier farther East than modeled.  That too would be a game changer, but that is wish casting or foretelling of something that simply has no model data to back it up.
> 
> If 18Z models come in like 12Z NAM modeling, I would expect the NWS to cancel the WSWatch.
> 
> Also, thought of the day:  Your integrity is all you have in this world.  It's a shame when you lose it.



That is good news, hope it's just a Cold rain for y'all....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elfiii said:


> Stick a fork in this one. Onward to the spinin' thingys!



Not so fast Obi Wonton Tofu
We still have more we're watchin and discussin in our tiny little back room.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Not so fast Obi Wonton Tofu
> We still have more we're watchin and discussin in our tiny little back room.



Hoping a rogue staffer leaks some info...

Actually, I don't want to know...the buildup to this one has been excruciating.


----------



## DDD

To answer the question on more cold. 

Yes. Without question, winter is not done. 

As for tomorrow, unless we have some serious evaporational cooling and more moisture than is currently forecasted, this will be a non-event for the most part.


----------



## gunnurse

Does anyone have some whiteout for the big red circle I put on the 15th?


----------



## crackerdave

May the onliest ice be that in Quack's dranky!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

gunnurse said:


> Does anyone have some whiteout for the big red circle I put on the 15th?


Just cut that date out of your calendar with some scissors, you won't need it anymore. 


crackerdave said:


> May the onliest ice be that in Quack's dranky!


Ain't that the truf.


----------



## Hooked On Quack

crackerdave said:


> May the onliest ice be that in Quack's dranky!





I'll drank to that !!!


----------



## blood on the ground

crackerdave said:


> May the onliest ice be that in Quack's dranky!



This makes me sad... I wanted a big ole ice/snow event... Oh well maybe next year!


----------



## hmaddox

Boy this front changes about every 2 hours.  Just saw this post on Weather.com for Cobb

Issued by The National Weather Service
Atlanta, GA
2:03pm EST, Sun Feb 14
... PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUCH THAT A RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX IS POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE BAND FROM CHATSWORTH TO CARTERSVILLE TO ATLANTA TO WASHINGTON. BY NOON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY FREEZING RAIN INTO RAIN.
WHILE WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT EXPECTED... ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND BE PREPARED FOR SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

Nothing worse than spinning out crossing a bridge. I'm going to check the temp and radar before leaving for work in the morning.


----------



## DDD

hmaddox said:


> Boy this front changes about every 2 hours.  Just saw this post on Weather.com for Cobb
> 
> Issued by The National Weather Service
> Atlanta, GA
> 2:03pm EST, Sun Feb 14
> ... PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
> A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
> TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUCH THAT A RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX IS POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE BAND FROM CHATSWORTH TO CARTERSVILLE TO ATLANTA TO WASHINGTON. BY NOON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY FREEZING RAIN INTO RAIN.
> WHILE WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT EXPECTED... ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND BE PREPARED FOR SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.



This is about as light a threat as could be possible. It's a step back from a watch. This thing has taken so many twist and turns. 

If there had been blocking in the Atlantic to hold the high pressure cold air in place, it would be a raging ice storm but it's not.


----------



## hmaddox

DDD said:


> This is about as light a threat as could be possible. It's a step back from a watch. This thing has taken so many twist and turns.
> 
> If there had been blocking in the Atlantic to hold the high pressure cold air in place, it would be a raging ice storm but it's not.



I am thankful it is not a raging ice storm, and thanks for keeping us abreast of the changeups.  Better to be prepared than slammed with a storm and not be.


----------



## tcward

blood on the ground said:


> This makes me sad... I wanted a big ole ice/snow event... Oh well maybe next year!



Never could figure out why anyone would want to wish for ice and all of its problems....


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

tcward said:


> Never could figure out why anyone would want to wish for ice and all of its problems....



It's the fast way off da roof for Blood.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

Temp was 33 when we got out of church, it's 31 now.


----------



## Wade Chandler

DDD or MC, looks like a tiny bit of precip finally getting pulled up across MS and AL, think there's a chance the more recent dry model runs bust?
MC, I'm still looking for the bluebird skies 
Hit a high of 35 here in Dahlonega today. Started out forecast for 41.


----------



## rospaw

DDD said:


> To answer the question on more cold.
> 
> Yes. Without question, winter is not done.
> 
> As for tomorrow, unless we have some serious evaporational cooling and more moisture than is currently forecasted, this will be a non-event for the most part.



Hey DDD When you say "for the most part" are you say the the far north will still have issues? The local Ellijay weather station is saying ice 1/10 to 1/4. Does this sound right to you? 
35 deg and some snowy looking clouds! Feels cold than it is.


----------



## smokey30725

From a semi-professional point of view, DDD or Miguel, do either one of you see the potential for another significant snow event this winter? Surely you have discussed this in hushed tones under the cover of darkness in the back room of weather central.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> Point in case. Conditions reports from Lafayette Ga. / Haleyville Al & Columbus AFB Ms.
> 
> Just checked these locations again and temperatures are actually going up, not down.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Meanwhile, to our North.


----------



## fireman401

SGADawg said:


> I don't remember the exact dates but in March, 1980 we lived in Crawford Co., west of Macon. I have a picture of my then 8 month old son with no shirt or shoes playing in the freshly tilled garden on a Saturday. 8 days later, we woke up on Sunday morning to about 6 inches of powder snow and temps in or near the teens!



If I am not mistaken, your March snow for Crawford was a ice storm for Dooly County.  We were without power for 3 or 4 days.  Only got it back after we helped pull the Georgia Power trucks across some very wet fields to repair the main lines coming into Pinehurst.  Their 6X6 trucks needed bogged down and we used a John Deere articulated tractor (8630) to get them to the lines.


----------



## Greene728

Weather Gurus....
Just received an email from our County EMA director (I'm Fire&EMS) that the last briefing with the NWS has backed way off. Even saying that now from about LaGrange south could actually be in line for some thunderstorms? Like you guys, they are saying the current modeling is quite a bit warmer and less precip. Now it's mainly just a slight to moderate ice event for NE GA and rain with some embedded thunder for everyone else. I been monitoring this as my baby girl is spending this week with Nana and Paw in Clayton Ga. Well Tallula Gorge is actually where they live. Hopefully the ice spares everyone!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Greene728 said:


> Weather Gurus....
> Just received an email from our County EMA director (I'm Fire&EMS) that the last briefing with the NWS has backed way off. Even saying that now from about LaGrange south could actually be in line for some thunderstorms? Like you guys, they are saying the current modeling is quite a bit warmer and less precip. Now it's mainly just a slight to moderate ice event for NE GA and rain with some embedded thunder for everyone else. I been monitoring this as my baby girl is spending this week with Nana and Paw in Clayton Ga. Well Tallula Gorge is actually where they live. Hopefully the ice spares everyone!



That is our hope as well. It is nasty stuff.


----------



## JonathanG2013

From NWS Peachtree City   This info is helpful


----------



## snarlinbear

Smokey it looks like you're  gonna be the first to post a ground truth in this chapter of the shall we call it "summer rain"?  My guess is in 30 minutes more or less.


----------



## jf950y

Maybe the next event will sneak up on us then give us a nice 3" to 4" if not I am ready for 65° crappie weather.


----------



## smokey30725

snarlinbear said:


> Smokey it looks like you're  gonna be the first to post a ground truth in this chapter of the shall we call it "summer rain"?  My guess is in 30 minutes more or less.



I can tell you that there is a light cold rain going on right now. Wish it was snow. ?


----------



## parisinthe20s

I'm not quite ready to trade in my winter boots and sweaters for shorts and sandals. Hopefully we have at least one more snow event on the horizon,or at least cold weather.


----------



## snarlinbear

smokey30725 said:


> I can tell you that there is a light cold rain going on right now. Wish it was snow. &#55357;&#56865;



When did it start if ya don't mind?


----------



## smokey30725

snarlinbear said:


> When did it start if ya don't mind?



When we left church around 8 it was drizzling. Nothing heavy yet.


----------



## DDD

Houston... we have a problem


----------



## DDD

Latest High Res NAM has brought the ICE goods and it could be bad... big change... pictures coming.


----------



## jbird1

I was gonna say...precip already??


----------



## snarlinbear

smokey30725 said:


> When we left church around 8 it was drizzling. Nothing heavy yet.



Thanks !   Just trying to learn the lag time in the radar.  Can you tell us the temp and advise if conditions  change?


----------



## smokey30725

Radar shows snow right above us but not seeing any.


----------



## smokey30725

One weather app shows current temp at 42. Other shows 37. This seems odd.


----------



## jbird1

My phone app went from afternoon rain back to snow and ice at 8AM..hmmmm


----------



## smokey30725

Both of my weather apps, for what it's worth, show snow for us until midnight or later. About to go outside and see if there has been any transition.


----------



## smokey30725

Nothing happening right now. Just cloudy and still.


----------



## snarlinbear

Thanks! At this juncture the ground truth for now.  While we wait on word from the mountain.


----------



## smokey30725

Bring da snow!


----------



## DDD

Guys, I am going to post some maps and then I will post some other things that bother me.


----------



## smokey30725

If I am reading the radar right, are those thunderstorms coming through Alabama towards us? Red and yellow on the radar.


----------



## Mountainbuck

Guys , wind gust here in Chatsworth are scary


----------



## jbird1

I'm pretty sure those purple marks inside the freezing line are bad medicine.


----------



## DDD

The problem with models is they don't capture everything.  They try, but they don't have the whole picture and this includes the NAM.  

With evaporational cooling the temps will probably be lower than the model shows.  

The dewpoints tell me that the temps are going to struggle to climb in CAD regions.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Yes I think the purple lines would be frozen precip due to the CAD. Is that correct DDD?


----------



## smokey30725

DDD, are we looking at severe weather moving towards us from Alabama? I don't like the looks of those red bands.


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> Yes I think the purple lines would be frozen precip due to the CAD. Is that correct DDD?



You can see the 32° freezing line, it cuts Gwinnett in half at times.


----------



## jbird1

I'm sitting in downtown Blue Ridge and it's colder at my house in N Forsyth right now. CAD is in effect


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> Yes I think the purple lines would be frozen precip due to the CAD. Is that correct DDD?



Those purple colors inside the 32 line would probably be sleet.

However this will be a mostly all freezing rain event 

IF the NAM is right.


----------



## DDD

It's going to be razor close.  These situations always are.  I would have a lot more confidence if we had blocking up in the north Atlantic, but we don't.


----------



## snarlinbear

Ground truth Smokey?


----------



## DDD

Most places like Commerce, Hamilton Mill, Dacula, Winder, Braselton, Gainesville, Buford, Cumming and points North and East will never make it above freezing tomorrow until maybe midnight.


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD said:


> Most places like Commerce, Hamilton Mill, Dacula, Winder, Braselton, Gainesville, Buford, Cumming and points North and East will never make it above freezing tomorrow until maybe midnight.



DDD

I live north of Canton but work in Johns Creek in S Forsyth. Would Johns Creek be in that area also?


----------



## DDD

JonathanG2013 said:


> DDD
> 
> I live north of Canton but work in Johns Creek in S Forsyth. Would Johns Creek be in that area also?



JC and Suwanee will be that area that will really be on the fault line if the NAM is correct.  20 miles south and North of there will be the drop off line somewhere.


----------



## snarlinbear

Thanks DDD for all you do.  Accretion estimate if possible?


----------



## smokey30725

snarlinbear said:


> Ground truth Smokey?



Just checked and there's nothing going on right now.


----------



## jbird1

That sure is a juicy radar back through Alabama...


----------



## DDD

Reading other METs across the SE, they are starting to realize that not one model had the amount of moisture that is currently on radar.  For the most part short range models were dry and dew points were higher in the NE than are reality.

If the moisture makes it in sooner, it could mean more moisture and locking the CAD in.  Its not the typical CAD set up, the dew points are low and the wet bulbs are low.  

I think everyone, including myself backed off the thinking because of what the models were showing, but I am beginning to wonder if the short range models are playing catch up and the moisture will be more and the cold air will hang on longer.

The RGEM is now starting to back up the hi-res NAM.


----------



## smokey30725

jbird1 said:


> That sure is a juicy radar back through Alabama...



That's got me a little worried. Wanting to hear DDD's take on it.


----------



## jbird1

smokey30725 said:


> That's got me a little worried. Wanting to hear DDD's take on it.



And it's here early...


----------



## Priest

Soooooo..... this is looking to have that moisture coming in for the afternoon. I know a lot of places said "you can start late Monday if there is stuff on the ground in the morning". It's this potential for getting tons of people stranded at work that heard the Mets back off the ice and such?


----------



## DDD

TV stations not buying it yet.  They still have the old graphics up...


----------



## Priest

DDD said:


> TV stations not buying it yet.  They still have the old graphics up...



Yeah...meaning everyone that isn't a banker Will be at work tomorrow when it hits


----------



## DDD

Priest said:


> Soooooo..... this is looking to have that moisture coming in for the afternoon. I know a lot of places said "you can start late Monday if there is stuff on the ground in the morning". It's this potential for getting tons of people stranded at work that heard the Mets back off the ice and such?



This is 100% correct.  The latest models are not showing all of the counties not coming above 32° until 10PM - midnight that are in the CAD regions.  Half of Gwinnett, North Fulton, Forsyth, Barrow, Athens - Clarke and all Counties NE of those.


----------



## DDD

I could see a scenario where people go to work and the trouble is realized and then they skate home.


----------



## Stonewall 2

Priest said:


> Yeah...meaning everyone that isn't a banker Will be at work tomorrow when it hits


Nope those govt. workers won't be in either, probably including the DOT


----------



## jbird1

It's 40 degrees in Atlanta and 28 in Gainesville...what a difference.  It's 30 deg at my house with a dew point of 10.


----------



## snarlinbear

jbird1 said:


> It's 40 degrees in Atlanta and 28 in Gainesville...what a difference.  It's 30 deg at my house with a dew point of 10.



33 degrees on the river ridge in Roswell


----------



## DDD

Hi-RES NAM simulated radar and temps all seem to be spot on for now.  Gives confidence to what it's advertising down the line.


----------



## jbird1

snarlinbear said:


> 33 degrees on the river ridge in Roswell



You're colder than where I'm at in Blue Ridge. (not at home)


----------



## DDD

Boys, it's 30° and dew point is 13 here in Dacula.

CAD is strong, but that warm rain coming will be strong... 

Million dollar question is, which one will win out tomorrow?


----------



## snarlinbear

jbird1 said:


> You're colder than where I'm at in Blue Ridge. (not at home)



Guessing it's the CAD down the river valley.


----------



## DDD

Here is a good look at what's going on.  I like the Weatherunderground website because you can see people's weather stations.  Great ground truth at least for temp and dewpoints.


----------



## BlackEagle

jbird1 said:


> It's 40 degrees in Atlanta and 28 in Gainesville...what a difference.  It's 30 deg at my house with a dew point of 10.



I'm reading 32 degrees right here in Athens.


----------



## snarlinbear

Temp just dropped to 32.


----------



## jbird1

It just started sleeting in Downtown Blue Ridge


----------



## DDD

Going to bed boys... 

Keep this in mind, the warm air could win out.  The NAM might have lost it's cookies on the 00Z.  

Not sure a heavy freezing rain will take place but traveling might be tough the front half of the day for sure.  Will it hold through late tomorrow night?  Who knows?


----------



## jbird1

Sleet is done and so am I....might have to go the long way home tomorrow.


----------



## snarlinbear

jbird1 said:


> It just started sleeting in Downtown Blue Ridge



Jbird according to the national mosaic the radar return is almost imperceptible.  Have you checked it?  Please advise fall rate if you will.


----------



## smokey30725

Will check back in the morning. Still nothing here but wind.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Going to bed boys...
> 
> Keep this in mind, the warm air could win out.  The NAM might have lost it's cookies on the 00Z.
> 
> Not sure a heavy freezing rain will take place but traveling might be tough the front half of the day for sure.  Will it hold through late tomorrow night?  Who knows?



The NAM 4km does seem to be an outlier from all other models which causes the negative Nancy in me to speak out. During the brief 4 hr window of frozen precip shown on the 00z run valid hr 30 and on the dewpoints just aren't there to support the products solution. 

In the reg NAM and all other models by the time a suffecient saturation point for precip is reached the 0c / 32f line is well eroded back up into NC thus leaving us with rain, and not much of it at that. QPF showing 1/10" at best with the much heavier amounts back in Tn & Al. 

But thats wx disco at its finest and the difference between Miggy's take on what he sees and DDD's faith in the hi-res product. 

The weather rocks will bear out the truth in the end.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> The NAM 4km does seem to be an outlier from all other models which causes the negative Nancy in me to speak out. During the brief 4 hr window of frozen precip shown on the 00z run valid hr 30 and on the dewpoints just aren't there to support the products solution.
> 
> In the reg NAM and all other models by the time a suffecient saturation point for precip is reached the 0c / 32f line is well eroded back up into NC thus leaving us with rain, and not much of it at that. QPF showing 1/10" at best with the much heavier amounts back in Tn & Al.
> 
> But thats wx disco at its finest and the difference between Miggy's take on what he sees and DDD's faith in the hi-res product.
> 
> The weather rocks will bear out the truth in the end.


34 with rain in Cartersville at the moment.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

blood on the ground said:


> 34 with rain in Cartersville at the moment.



I bet that rain was gone before you finished typing. It was a teeny tiny blip on the radar.


----------



## blood on the ground

Miguel Cervantes said:


> I bet that rain was gone before you finished typing. It was a teeny tiny blip on the radar.



Maybe, but that little blip being driven down the back of my shirt was enough to send me running back inside


----------



## JonathanG2013

On the radar this morning most of the heavy precip is into Tn and the Carolina's.


----------



## mtr3333

35° here now


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

It'd be nice if you boys wouldn't hog up the remaining pages with short meaningless blurbs. I know it's down time waiting on precip to do something somewhere, but attempting to hurry this one along to 1000 post could potentially be counterproductive.


----------



## PappyHoel

Left dawsonville at 530am it was bone dry and 32 degrees.  South on 400 to sandy springs and it went up to a balmy 35 degrees.  It didn't feel cold enough to do anything.


----------



## DDD

PappyHoel said:


> Left dawsonville at 530am it was bone dry and 32 degrees.  South on 400 to sandy springs and it went up to a balmy 35 degrees.  It didn't feel cold enough to do anything.



Don't trust the thermometer on your truck.  

These radar stations update about every 30 seconds, you are still in freezing temps in Sandy Springs.  

Just FYI, Sandy Springs is not what I would consider a CAD region either.  Just FWIW.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Don't trust the thermometer on your truck.
> 
> These radar stations update about every 30 seconds, you are still in freezing temps in Sandy Springs.
> 
> Just FYI, Sandy Springs is not what I would consider a CAD region either.  Just FWIW.



Are those private stations, such as Steves?


----------



## smokey30725

Very calm and 37 here in Flintstone with a light drizzle. Anything to look forward to on the extended outlook?


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Are those private stations, such as Steves?



Yes, but they can't all be wrong.  His is usually a degree too cold.  Not 4 too warm.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Yes, but they can't all be wrong.  His is usually a degree too cold.  Not 4 too warm.



My point exactly.


----------



## Robbie101

DDD said:


> This is not the weather drivel.  You make it extremely hard for people to come here and read weather info.



Amen!!! Thank you!!! 

Car says 32 here in Monroe!


----------



## nickel back

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


----------



## nickel back

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


----------



## Hornet22

Both thermometers read 25* here in downtown 30680, wind howling good too


----------



## DDD

No matter how this turns out in CAD areas it will be interesting to watch from a weather standpoint.  I don't see this taking down trees and such, however it could make for traveling to be a nightmare.  Especially up I-85 and I-985.


----------



## GA DAWG

Cold in the cad is all I know. Feels funny outside. Im bout to freeze.


----------



## blood on the ground

I tip my hat to the public service workers having to work out there today! It's cold outside!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

nickel back said:


> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php



Pssssssssst. It's here all day everyday since I put it up 8 years ago. 

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=272699


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> No matter how this turns out in CAD areas it will be interesting to watch from a weather standpoint.  I don't see this taking down trees and such, however it could make for traveling to be a nightmare.  Especially up I-85 and I-985.



I agree.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

DDD said:


> No matter how this turns out in CAD areas it will be interesting to watch from a weather standpoint.  I don't see this taking down trees and such, however it could make for traveling to be a nightmare.  Especially up I-85 and I-985.



Hooray!


----------



## shakey gizzard

Its come up a deg and a half IMBY to 31.4


----------



## hmaddox

What about traveling to Kennesaw from Acworth, and back later today (near lake Allatoona)?


----------



## nickel back

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Pssssssssst. It's here all day everyday since I put it up 8 years ago.
> 
> http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?t=272699




I know, I just thought I would post a radar in the thread just in case some folks want to take a peak at it


----------



## DDD

blood on the ground said:


> I tip my hat to the public service workers having to work out there today! It's cold outside!



No doubt.  I took my weather nut Boston Terrier outside and regretted it.  That air is no joke.  Very dense and super cold. 

She's a fantastic weather dog.  Probably not as good as the Beagles, but when she pees and runs back to the door at the same time, it's cold.  

The air is dry and cold for sure.  It will be interesting to see how fast the air warms and saturates today.  If nothing else from a pure weather standpoint.  Probably not as interesting to you guys, but the kind of stuff that Miguel and I geek out on.


----------



## DDD

hmaddox said:


> What about traveling to Kennesaw from Acworth, and back later today (near lake Allatoona)?



You should be fine over there!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> No doubt.  I took my weather nut Boston Terrier outside and regretted it.  That air is no joke.  Very dense and super cold.
> 
> She's a fantastic weather dog.  Probably not as good as the Beagles, but when she pees and runs back to the door at the same time, it's cold.
> 
> The air is dry and cold for sure.  It will be interesting to see how fast the air warms and saturates today.  If nothing else from a pure weather standpoint.  Probably not as interesting to you guys, but the kind of stuff that Miguel and I geek out on.



You guys are sissies. I went and stood on top of a windy hill, hardly a tree in sight at 0715 and it was quite toasty....

But as far as the sat pts go, yeah, it's gonna be tough getting work done today while constantly monitoring local condition reports around N. Ga. It's an insatiable desire to know what's coming, before it happens. It's a disease I tell ya........


----------



## hmaddox

DDD said:


> You should be fine over there!



Thanks so much, really need to go into work, but from one that was stuck for 11.5 hours during Snowpocolypse, sure didn't want a replay.  Whew......


----------



## smokey30725

I'm here in Dalton now and it's 34 with a steady cold rain coming down. I am definitely thankful that there's no ice in our immediate area. I hope it all stays rain or sleet and doesn't complicate anyone's commute. I just hope that we have at least one more shot at some of the white stuff coming.


----------



## northgeorgiasportsman

WEDGE in full effect!  It's 36 in my neck of the mountians and below freezing 50 miles south.  Cold rain coming for us.


----------



## jbird1

Cold rain here in Blue Ridge...'bout to skint out towards the wedge and try an beat the precip.


----------



## DDD

Well... precip is not getting in as fast as I had hoped.  Current NAM pulls the plug on the cold air at the surface.  Precip just is not going to get here fast enough to lock the Wedge in...  or so it seems.


----------



## smokey30725

It's bouncing around here in Dalton. It's gone from 34 to 32 and back up to 37 all within the course of an hour.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Well... precip is not getting in as fast as I had hoped.  Current NAM pulls the plug on the cold air at the surface.  Precip just is not going to get here fast enough to lock the Wedge in...  or so it seems.



It's moments like these that make you hate Messican's isn't it...


----------



## smokey30725

Anything on the long range outlook to get our hopes up over?


----------



## DDD

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's moments like these that make you hate Messican's isn't it...



Not really.  It's easy to go climo.  What I hate is French Toast.


----------



## DDD

smokey30725 said:


> Anything on the long range outlook to get our hopes up over?



Not in the next 10 days, at least on the latest model runs I have seen.


----------



## smokey30725

DDD said:


> Not in the next 10 days, at least on the latest model runs I have seen.



Well that's just depressing.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

DDD said:


> Not really.  It's easy to go climo.  What I hate is French Toast.



I saw where even the name of the page was stolen from a Boston website. Maybe after another 1500 members are dumped it can be changed to the Quiche Report.


----------



## JonathanG2013

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's moments like these that make you hate Messican's isn't it...



We do not hate yo MC.  God is just throwing us a curve ball. He is like you think you know what the weather is going to do.   Watch This.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

JonathanG2013 said:


> We do not hate yo MC.  God is just throwing us a curve ball. He is like you think you know what the weather is going to do.   Watch This.



No, no, no. You don't understand. Miggy's report is what DDD is seeing change ever so slowly. Dang Messicans, but it ain't over till da fat lady sings.

You wanna be da fat lady?


----------



## 95g atl

Reporting from Suwanee. 

Cloudy. 
Nearly calm
And 34 degrees


----------



## JonathanG2013

DDD and MC,

I could be a blessing if this is just cold rain. I would hate for the people in the CAD areas to have bad issues with freezing rain and losing power.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Not to spoil the excitement of this winter event, but there is other winter weather (well it is winter time) happening along LA, MS and AL & FL's southern regions today. Gonna get my STS radar fix in today. Already reports of 1/4" hail NW of Vicksberg MS.  If you've got friends or family in the those areas tell them to keep their eyes and ears peeled.


----------



## Fuzzy D Fellers

I bit of sleet then started pouring rain @29801


----------



## Wade Chandler

Atmosphere seems to be moistening up without precip falling here.  Temp is holding steady at 29.5.  We're up to about 75% humidity.  If some more moistening occurs, we could have some showers break out ahead of that main line.  Question is, how much warm air comes in with those showers.  Keep the precip light and it will get mighty slippery.


----------



## Crakajak

I don't like quail hunting in 70 degree weather. Thats all I'm going to say about that.


----------



## PappyHoel

Doesn't even look like the rain will come in.  There's a distinct line in NW Georgia


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Wade Chandler said:


> Atmosphere seems to be moistening up without precip falling here.  Temp is holding steady at 29.5.  We're up to about 75% humidity.  If some more moistening occurs, we could have some showers break out ahead of that main line.  Question is, how much warm air comes in with those showers.  Keep the precip light and it will get mighty slippery.



What is the dewpoint. You can have 100% humidity and no rain. Most sites in that region are running a 15° deficit right now on TDD.


----------



## Wade Chandler

MC, dp here is 24.  I had about 6 drops of precip on my windshield on my way in to work at 7:30, and just had someone come in saying there was a fine mist.


----------



## jcountry

I think after this cold snap, we can pretty much stick a fork in winter-at least in the Atlanta area.....

(Now watch-because I said that, we will have another St. Patrick's day blizzard.)


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

jcountry said:


> I think after this cold snap, we can pretty much stick a fork in winter-at least in the Atlanta area.....



DDD and I love statements like this...


----------



## Wade Chandler

Freezing mist here in Dahlonega now.  Air is finally saturated.  But temp is up to 30.


----------



## PappyHoel

The winter of dissappointment


----------



## hmaddox

Interesting - left my house in Acworth - was 36 degrees.  Down in Kennesaw - dropped to 33.  Going down vs up - hmm.......


----------



## Wade Chandler

Sidewalk and parking lot are now damp.  It's a sad winter when reporting that things are damp from freezing drizzle is the best thing we've got going.


----------



## smokey30725

36 and cloudy here in Dalton.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Well, if we all want some action, even might get in a chase or two, we could head SE. It's startin to fire up down that way.


----------



## telco guy

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, if we all want some action, even might get in a chase or two, we could head SE. It's startin to fire up down that way.



SE or SW?


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Well, if we all want some action, even might get in a chase or two, we could head SE. It's startin to fire up down that way.



Dang this whole job thing, I've been itching for a chase.


----------



## RinggoldGa

*******i owes us some snow.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

RinggoldGa said:


> *******i owes us some snow.


I unsubscribed from him first.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

telco guy said:


> SE or SW?



SW, just like I was thinking. Ignore my fingers, they don't pay attention sometimes.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

3/4" hail reported by the Emergency Manager in Jasper Ms. SW of Meridian. That'll put a sho nuff popknot on your noggin.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

S. MS & E. LA have been warned. Gettin serious now folks.


----------



## PappyHoel

Yikes that's a bad line up of storms.  Hope everyone gets shelter.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Brad Nitz from WSB is reporting freezing rain in Dawsonville. Any ground truth out there?


----------



## jbird1

Just did a little storm chase through Gilmer and Dawson Counties between 10-11:00.  It was fun watching the temps dive moving into the CAD zone.  It was 41 when we left Blue Ridge, got down to 29 just South of the downtown Dawsonville, and ended up at 31 back at the house in N Forsyth.


----------



## jbird1

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Brad Nitz from WSB is reporting freezing rain in Dawsonville. Any ground truth out there?



I had frozen droplets on my hood when we rolled into the driveway.  It was freezing drizzle South of downtown.


----------



## PappyHoel

Miguel Cervantes said:


> Brad Nitz from WSB is reporting freezing rain in Dawsonville. Any ground truth out there?



Texting the wife right now she says dry.  No percip...maybe that's northern Dawson cty


----------



## hmaddox

Temp rising - 36 in Acworth, and glad....


----------



## Milkman

Miguel Cervantes said:


> S. MS & E. LA have been warned. Gettin serious now folks.



That is right on top of where my grand daughter lives in Sulphur LA.   I better check on them.

Thanks !!


----------



## jbird1

I also have a very light glaze on my truck that's been sitting in the driveway...Forsyth-Dawson line.


----------



## StriperrHunterr

Do these storms in MS and such have the possibility to moisture rob our event?


----------



## Milkman

Milkman said:


> That is right on top of where my grand daughter lives in Sulphur LA.   I better check on them.
> 
> Thanks !!



My grand daughters Mom says only rain there now, no storms yet where they are.


----------



## gobbleinwoods

Miguel Cervantes said:


> It's moments like these that make you hate Messican's isn't it...



No I'll listen to them just won't hire them, Oh wait that is Steve-o's line.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Looks like some damage in Simmerport LA from a Tornado Warned Cell. Warning has been dropped for now, but it can be put back on in another location if this cell holds together.

I'm not kiddin folks. These storms aren't playin. If you have friends or family down that way make sure they are on the ball for this weather.


----------



## Wade Chandler

Even though all the weather stations around Dahlonega are recording temps below freezing, my car was wet, not icy when I went out to it 10 minutes ago.  Also, the temp is slowly ticking up, thank you radiation through the clouds.  So close to a beautiful mess.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

Got a whole swarm of warned cells in South Mississippi. 
Good grief!


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

I look for this Tornado Watch area to be extended into S. AL any time now.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

As James Spann just pointed out, this IS a pretty impressive tornado signature (couplet) heading towards State Line Ms.


----------



## PappyHoel

Wife reports mist in dawsonville


----------



## Robbie101

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As James Spann just pointed out, this IS a pretty impressive tornado signature (couplet) heading towards State Line Ms.



How long before that reaches us?


----------



## elandil

Miguel Cervantes said:


> As James Spann just pointed out, this IS a pretty impressive tornado signature (couplet) heading towards State Line Ms.



You got any more info? I got family living in SW Miss. near Jackson.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elandil said:


> You got any more info? I got family living in SW Miss. near Jackson.



There is a warned cell SW of Jackson heading that way but it is not as well organized as the one on the SE side of the State. No reports out of the Jackson area thus far.


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

70 degrees in Hattiesburg MS and right up the road in Meridian it's 57 degrees. Can you tell where the warm front boundary is?


----------



## Miguel Cervantes

elandil,

Just got this storm report from just NW of Jackson.


----------



## elandil

Miguel Cervantes said:


> There is a warned cell SW of Jackson heading that way but it is not as well organized as the one on the SE side of the State. No reports out of the Jackson area thus far.



Thanks. I've got my wife calling to see if they're ok, and make sure they know whats up. I'm sure they do, but it never hurts to check.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Here's a very dangerous cell running smack across the Southern state line of Mississippi.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Brad Nitz / WSB is reporting freezing drizzle in Gainesville Ga. Anyone out there got ground truth?


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## NE GA Pappy

misting in Toccoa Ga


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## Miguel Cervantes

Another nasty couplet just south of Martinsville Ms.


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## Miguel Cervantes

NWS issues new tornado warning #15 for S. AL. #14 in MS is still in effect.


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## Nitram4891

Hope everyone stays safe in MS and AL.  Looks mean.


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## smokey30725

From winter ice storms to tornado warnings in the same day. Now that's crazy weather. Should we expect a blizzard next week and a sandstorm the week after?


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## Miguel Cervantes

Two warned cells on the one is a confirmed tornado on the ground wnw of evergreen Al moving to the NE. Also the cell I last posted on here near Martinsville Ms is now confirmed on the ground. 

Gotta glitch in the interworkings here as Zeus tries to adjust some things so I can't post any pics right now, but if you folks will tune in to TWC or James Spann online I'm sure you'll be able to keep up with them as I keep a narrative.


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## Miguel Cervantes

FWIW there is a 20°f temp differential between Anniston AL and Montgomery AL.


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## Miguel Cervantes

Ok, freeing up space here for this active severe outbreak.

Go to this thread and link to keep up.

http://forum.gon.com/showthread.php?p=10034734&posted=1#post10034734


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## Jeff Raines

40 degrees with rain in Acworth at 1:40 pm.


and now it ain't


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## smokey30725

Miguel, is today indicative of the types of weather events we will likely encounter until the spring storm season, or will cooler weather make another appearance in late Feb, early March? My 11 year old son was severely traumatized by the tornados back in April 2011 as one went right past our neighborhood and decimated the one down the road from us. We were picking up roofing and siding material for quite some time and there were stray dogs, cats, and even cattle and horses roaming around for quite some time. Anytime the sky turns dark, he nearly has an anxiety attack and starts asking us when the sirens are going to start blaring.


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## Miguel Cervantes

smokey30725 said:


> Miguel, is today indicative of the types of weather events we will likely encounter until the spring storm season, or will cooler weather make another appearance in late Feb, early March? My 11 year old son was severely traumatized by the tornados back in April 2011 as one went right past our neighborhood and decimated the one down the road from us. We were picking up roofing and siding material for quite some time and there were stray dogs, cats, and even cattle and horses roaming around for quite some time. Anytime the sky turns dark, he nearly has an anxiety attack and starts asking us when the sirens are going to start blaring.



There is no right answer to that question. Today's weather may indeed by indicative of a trend, but as the seasonal change in position of the sun and climate changes happen (per the season) it is hard to relate it to a trend from earlier in Winter. 

When we get to the mid to upper 70's and cold fronts come rolling through in the Spring then it gets really interesting.


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## Miguel Cervantes

I wish y'all could see the active BV Radar in motion that I just posted on the February Severe Thread. You can literally see that monster rotating on the radar.


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## grizzlyblake

Will that system still carry all that energy once it gets into this area after dusk? 

I just have finished picking up all the sticks in my yard from the last go-round.


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## 95g atl

Suwanee update.
38*F
no precipitation as of yet.

Does feel COLDER than 38....or i am just getting OLD.


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## Miguel Cervantes

grizzlyblake said:


> Will that system still carry all that energy once it gets into this area after dusk?
> 
> I just have finished picking up all the sticks in my yard from the last go-round.



Depends on temperatures. I is now 66°f in Troup County Ga with broken cloud cover. If this continues and the upper atmosphere heats up then the destabilization could move further north than originally projected.


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